Examination of Cross-Scale Coupling During Auroral Events using RENU2 and ISINGLASS Sounding Rocket Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenward, D. R.; Lessard, M.; Lynch, K. A.; Hysell, D. L.; Hampton, D. L.; Michell, R.; Samara, M.; Varney, R. H.; Oksavik, K.; Clausen, L. B. N.; Hecht, J. H.; Clemmons, J. H.; Fritz, B.

2017-12-01

The RENU2 sounding rocket (launched from Andoya rocket range on December 13th, 2015) observed Poleward Moving Auroral Forms within the dayside cusp. The ISINGLASS rockets (launched from Poker Flat rocket range on February 22, 2017 and March 2, 2017) both observed aurora during a substorm event. Despite observing very different events, both campaigns witnessed a high degree of small scale structuring within the larger auroral boundary, including Alfvenic signatures. These observations suggest a method of coupling large-scale energy input to fine scale structures within aurorae. During RENU2, small (sub-km) scale drivers persist for long (10s of minutes) time scales and result in large scale ionospheric (thermal electron) and thermospheric response (neutral upwelling). ISINGLASS observations show small scale drivers, but with short (minute) time scales, with ionospheric response characterized by the flight's thermal electron instrument (ERPA). The comparison of the two flights provides an excellent opportunity to examine ionospheric and thermospheric response to small scale drivers over different integration times.

Tropical warming and the dynamics of endangered primates.

PubMed

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Post, Eric

2010-04-23

Many primate species are severely threatened, but little is known about the effects of global warming and the associated intensification of El Niño events on primate populations. Here, we document the influences of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and hemispheric climatic variability on the population dynamics of four genera of ateline (neotropical, large-bodied) primates. All ateline genera experienced either an immediate or a lagged negative effect of El Niño events. ENSO events were also found to influence primate resource levels through neotropical arboreal phenology. Furthermore, frugivorous primates showed a high degree of interspecific population synchrony over large scales across Central and South America attributable to the recent trends in large-scale climate. These results highlight the role of large-scale climatic variation and trends in ateline primate population dynamics, and emphasize that global warming could pose additional threats to the persistence of multiple species of endangered primates.

High-Performance Monitoring Architecture for Large-Scale Distributed Systems Using Event Filtering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maly, K.

1998-01-01

Monitoring is an essential process to observe and improve the reliability and the performance of large-scale distributed (LSD) systems. In an LSD environment, a large number of events is generated by the system components during its execution or interaction with external objects (e.g. users or processes). Monitoring such events is necessary for observing the run-time behavior of LSD systems and providing status information required for debugging, tuning and managing such applications. However, correlated events are generated concurrently and could be distributed in various locations in the applications environment which complicates the management decisions process and thereby makes monitoring LSD systems an intricate task. We propose a scalable high-performance monitoring architecture for LSD systems to detect and classify interesting local and global events and disseminate the monitoring information to the corresponding end- points management applications such as debugging and reactive control tools to improve the application performance and reliability. A large volume of events may be generated due to the extensive demands of the monitoring applications and the high interaction of LSD systems. The monitoring architecture employs a high-performance event filtering mechanism to efficiently process the large volume of event traffic generated by LSD systems and minimize the intrusiveness of the monitoring process by reducing the event traffic flow in the system and distributing the monitoring computation. Our architecture also supports dynamic and flexible reconfiguration of the monitoring mechanism via its Instrumentation and subscription components. As a case study, we show how our monitoring architecture can be utilized to improve the reliability and the performance of the Interactive Remote Instruction (IRI) system which is a large-scale distributed system for collaborative distance learning. The filtering mechanism represents an Intrinsic component integrated with the monitoring architecture to reduce the volume of event traffic flow in the system, and thereby reduce the intrusiveness of the monitoring process. We are developing an event filtering architecture to efficiently process the large volume of event traffic generated by LSD systems (such as distributed interactive applications). This filtering architecture is used to monitor collaborative distance learning application for obtaining debugging and feedback information. Our architecture supports the dynamic (re)configuration and optimization of event filters in large-scale distributed systems. Our work represents a major contribution by (1) survey and evaluating existing event filtering mechanisms In supporting monitoring LSD systems and (2) devising an integrated scalable high- performance architecture of event filtering that spans several kev application domains, presenting techniques to improve the functionality, performance and scalability. This paper describes the primary characteristics and challenges of developing high-performance event filtering for monitoring LSD systems. We survey existing event filtering mechanisms and explain key characteristics for each technique. In addition, we discuss limitations with existing event filtering mechanisms and outline how our architecture will improve key aspects of event filtering.

Multi-scale comparison of source parameter estimation using empirical Green's function approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Cheng, Y.

2015-12-01

Analysis of earthquake source parameters requires correction of path effect, site response, and instrument responses. Empirical Green's function (EGF) method is one of the most effective methods in removing path effects and station responses by taking the spectral ratio between a larger and smaller event. Traditional EGF method requires identifying suitable event pairs, and analyze each event individually. This allows high quality estimations for strictly selected events, however, the quantity of resolvable source parameters is limited, which challenges the interpretation of spatial-temporal coherency. On the other hand, methods that exploit the redundancy of event-station pairs are proposed, which utilize the stacking technique to obtain systematic source parameter estimations for a large quantity of events at the same time. This allows us to examine large quantity of events systematically, facilitating analysis of spatial-temporal patterns, and scaling relationship. However, it is unclear how much resolution is scarified during this process. In addition to the empirical Green's function calculation, choice of model parameters and fitting methods also lead to biases. Here, using two regional focused arrays, the OBS array in the Mendocino region, and the borehole array in the Salton Sea geothermal field, I compare the results from the large scale stacking analysis, small-scale cluster analysis, and single event-pair analysis with different fitting methods to systematically compare the results within completely different tectonic environment, in order to quantify the consistency and inconsistency in source parameter estimations, and the associated problems.

Spiking neural network simulation: memory-optimal synaptic event scheduling.

PubMed

Stewart, Robert D; Gurney, Kevin N

2011-06-01

Spiking neural network simulations incorporating variable transmission delays require synaptic events to be scheduled prior to delivery. Conventional methods have memory requirements that scale with the total number of synapses in a network. We introduce novel scheduling algorithms for both discrete and continuous event delivery, where the memory requirement scales instead with the number of neurons. Superior algorithmic performance is demonstrated using large-scale, benchmarking network simulations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang

Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very widemore » range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.« less

Scale Dependence of Land Atmosphere Interactions in Wet and Dry Regions as Simulated with NU-WRF over the Southwestern and Southeast US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Wu, Di; Lau, K.- M.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2016-01-01

Large-scale forcing and land-atmosphere interactions on precipitation are investigated with NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) simulations during fast transitions of ENSO phases from spring to early summer of 2010 and 2011. The model is found to capture major precipitation episodes in the 3-month simulations without resorting to nudging. However, the mean intensity of the simulated precipitation is underestimated by 46% and 57% compared with the observations in dry and wet regions in the southwestern and south-central United States, respectively. Sensitivity studies show that large-scale atmospheric forcing plays a major role in producing regional precipitation. A methodology to account for moisture contributions to individual precipitation events, as well as total precipitation, is presented under the same moisture budget framework. The analysis shows that the relative contributions of local evaporation and large-scale moisture convergence depend on the dry/wet regions and are a function of temporal and spatial scales. While the ratio of local and large-scale moisture contributions vary with domain size and weather system, evaporation provides a major moisture source in the dry region and during light rain events, which leads to greater sensitivity to soil moisture in the dry region and during light rain events. The feedback of land surface processes to large-scale forcing is well simulated, as indicated by changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture convergence. Overall, the results reveal an asymmetrical response of precipitation events to soil moisture, with higher sensitivity under dry than wet conditions. Drier soil moisture tends to suppress further existing below-normal precipitation conditions via a positive soil moisture-land surface flux feedback that could worsen drought conditions in the southwestern United States.

Evaluating the implementation of a national disclosure policy for large-scale adverse events in an integrated health care system: identification of gaps and successes.

PubMed

Maguire, Elizabeth M; Bokhour, Barbara G; Wagner, Todd H; Asch, Steven M; Gifford, Allen L; Gallagher, Thomas H; Durfee, Janet M; Martinello, Richard A; Elwy, A Rani

2016-11-11

Many healthcare organizations have developed disclosure policies for large-scale adverse events, including the Veterans Health Administration (VA). This study evaluated VA's national large-scale disclosure policy and identifies gaps and successes in its implementation. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with leaders, hospital employees, and patients at nine sites to elicit their perceptions of recent large-scale adverse events notifications and the national disclosure policy. Data were coded using the constructs of the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). We conducted 97 interviews. Insights included how to handle the communication of large-scale disclosures through multiple levels of a large healthcare organization and manage ongoing communications about the event with employees. Of the 5 CFIR constructs and 26 sub-constructs assessed, seven were prominent in interviews. Leaders and employees specifically mentioned key problem areas involving 1) networks and communications during disclosure, 2) organizational culture, 3) engagement of external change agents during disclosure, and 4) a need for reflecting on and evaluating the policy implementation and disclosure itself. Patients shared 5) preferences for personal outreach by phone in place of the current use of certified letters. All interviewees discussed 6) issues with execution and 7) costs of the disclosure. CFIR analysis reveals key problem areas that need to be addresses during disclosure, including: timely communication patterns throughout the organization, establishing a supportive culture prior to implementation, using patient-approved, effective communications strategies during disclosures; providing follow-up support for employees and patients, and sharing lessons learned.

Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.

Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the intensity of this event may be greatly increased if it occurs in a future climate. In the second part of this thesis, I examine the ability of high-resolution global atmospheric models to simulate TCs. Specifically, I present an intercomparison of several models' ability to simulate the global characteristics of TCs in the current climate. This is a necessary first step before using these models to project future changes in TCs. Overall, the models were able to reproduce the geographic distribution of TCs reasonably well, with some of the models performing remarkably well. The intensity of TCs varied widely between the models, with some of this difference being due to model resolution.

Self-similar rupture implied by scaling properties of volcanic earthquakes occurring during the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrington, Rebecca M.; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Moran, Seth C.

2015-01-01

We analyze a group of 6073 low-frequency earthquakes recorded during a week-long temporary deployment of broadband seismometers at distances of less than 3 km from the crater at Mount St. Helens in September of 2006. We estimate the seismic moment (M0) and spectral corner frequency (f0) using a spectral ratio approach for events with a high signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio that have a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.8 or greater with at least five other events. A cluster analysis of cross-correlation values indicates that the group of 421 events meeting the SNR and cross-correlation criteria forms eight event families that exhibit largely self-similar scaling. We estimate the M0 and f0 values of the 421 events and calculate their static stress drop and scaled energy (ER/M0) values. The estimated values suggest self-similar scaling within families, as well as between five of eight families (i.e.,  and  constant). We speculate that differences in scaled energy values for the two families with variable scaling may result from a lack of resolution in the velocity model. The observation of self-similar scaling is the first of its kind for such a large group of low-frequency volcanic tectonic events occurring during a single active dome extrusion eruption.

A new model for extinction and recolonization in two dimensions: quantifying phylogeography.

PubMed

Barton, Nicholas H; Kelleher, Jerome; Etheridge, Alison M

2010-09-01

Classical models of gene flow fail in three ways: they cannot explain large-scale patterns; they predict much more genetic diversity than is observed; and they assume that loosely linked genetic loci evolve independently. We propose a new model that deals with these problems. Extinction events kill some fraction of individuals in a region. These are replaced by offspring from a small number of parents, drawn from the preexisting population. This model of evolution forwards in time corresponds to a backwards model, in which ancestral lineages jump to a new location if they are hit by an event, and may coalesce with other lineages that are hit by the same event. We derive an expression for the identity in allelic state, and show that, over scales much larger than the largest event, this converges to the classical value derived by Wright and Malécot. However, rare events that cover large areas cause low genetic diversity, large-scale patterns, and correlations in ancestry between unlinked loci. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-04-01

Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is essential for example for forecasting purposes.

Identifying large scale structures at 1 AU using fluctuations and wavelets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niembro, T.; Lara, A.

2016-12-01

The solar wind (SW) is inhomogeneous and it is dominated for two types of flows: one quasi-stationary and one related to large scale transients (such as coronal mass ejections and co-rotating interaction regions). The SW inhomogeneities can be study as fluctuations characterized by a wide range of length and time scales. We are interested in the study of the characteristic fluctuations caused by large scale transient events. To do so, we define the vector space F with the normalized moving monthly/annual deviations as the orthogonal basis. Then, we compute the norm in this space of the solar wind parameters (velocity, magnetic field, density and temperature) fluctuations using WIND data from August 1992 to August 2015. This norm gives important information about the presence of a large structure disturbance in the solar wind and by applying a wavelet transform to this norm, we are able to determine, without subjectivity, the duration of the compression regions of these large transient structures and, even more, to identify if the structure corresponds to a single or complex (or merged) event. With this method we have automatically detected most of the events identified and published by other authors.

Spider Transcriptomes Identify Ancient Large-Scale Gene Duplication Event Potentially Important in Silk Gland Evolution

PubMed Central

Clarke, Thomas H.; Garb, Jessica E.; Hayashi, Cheryl Y.; Arensburger, Peter; Ayoub, Nadia A.

2015-01-01

The evolution of specialized tissues with novel functions, such as the silk synthesizing glands in spiders, is likely an influential driver of adaptive success. Large-scale gene duplication events and subsequent paralog divergence are thought to be required for generating evolutionary novelty. Such an event has been proposed for spiders, but not tested. We de novo assembled transcriptomes from three cobweb weaving spider species. Based on phylogenetic analyses of gene families with representatives from each of the three species, we found numerous duplication events indicative of a whole genome or segmental duplication. We estimated the age of the gene duplications relative to several speciation events within spiders and arachnids and found that the duplications likely occurred after the divergence of scorpions (order Scorpionida) and spiders (order Araneae), but before the divergence of the spider suborders Mygalomorphae and Araneomorphae, near the evolutionary origin of spider silk glands. Transcripts that are expressed exclusively or primarily within black widow silk glands are more likely to have a paralog descended from the ancient duplication event and have elevated amino acid replacement rates compared with other transcripts. Thus, an ancient large-scale gene duplication event within the spider lineage was likely an important source of molecular novelty during the evolution of silk gland-specific expression. This duplication event may have provided genetic material for subsequent silk gland diversification in the true spiders (Araneomorphae). PMID:26058392

Context-dependence of long-term responses of terrestrial gastropod populations to large-scale disturbance.

Treesearch

Christopher P. Bloch; Michael R. Willi

2006-01-01

Large-scale natural disturbances, such as hurricanes, can have profound effects on animal populations. Nonetheless, generalizations about the effects of disturbance are elusive, and few studies consider long-term responses of a single population or community to multiple large-scale disturbance events. In the last 20 y, twomajor hurricanes (Hugo and Georges) have struck...

Extremely high wall-shear stress events in a turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Chong; Kwon, Yongseok

2018-04-01

The present work studies the fluctuating characteristics of the streamwise wall-shear stress in a DNS of a turbulent boundary layer at Re τ =1500 from a structural view. The two-dimensional field of the fluctuating friction velocity u‧ τ (x,z) is decomposed into the large- and small-scale components via a recently proposed scale separation algorithm, Quasi-bivariate Variational Mode Decomposition (QB-VMD). Both components are found to be dominated by streak-like structures, which can be regarded as the wall signature of the inner-layer streaks and the outer-layer LSMs, respectively. Extreme positive/negative wall-shear stress fluctuation events are detected in the large-scale component. The former’s occurrence frequency is nearly one order of magnitude higher than the latter; therefore, they contribute a significant portion of the long tail of the wall-shear stress distribution. Both two-point correlations and conditional averages show that these extreme positive wall-shear stress events are embedded in the large-scale positive u‧ τ streaks. They seem to be formed by near-wall ‘splatting’ process, which are related to strong finger-like sweeping (Q4) events originated from the outer-layer positive LSMs.

Structure of high and low shear-stress events in a turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomit, G.; de Kat, R.; Ganapathisubramani, B.

2018-01-01

Simultaneous particle image velocimetry (PIV) and wall-shear-stress sensor measurements were performed to study structures associated with shear-stress events in a flat plate turbulent boundary layer at a Reynolds number Reτ≈4000 . The PIV field of view covers 8 δ (where δ is the boundary layer thickness) along the streamwise direction and captures the entire boundary layer in the wall-normal direction. Simultaneously, wall-shear-stress measurements that capture the large-scale fluctuations were taken using a spanwise array of hot-film skin-friction sensors (spanning 2 δ ). Based on this combination of measurements, the organization of the conditional wall-normal and streamwise velocity fluctuations (u and v ) and of the Reynolds shear stress (-u v ) can be extracted. Conditional averages of the velocity field are computed by dividing the histogram of the large-scale wall-shear-stress fluctuations into four quartiles, each containing 25% of the occurrences. The conditional events corresponding to the extreme quartiles of the histogram (positive and negative) predominantly contribute to a change of velocity profile associated with the large structures and in the modulation of the small scales. A detailed examination of the Reynolds shear-stress contribution related to each of the four quartiles shows that the flow above a low wall-shear-stress event carries a larger amount of Reynolds shear stress than the other quartiles. The contribution of the small and large scales to this observation is discussed based on a scale decomposition of the velocity field.

Reversible Parallel Discrete-Event Execution of Large-scale Epidemic Outbreak Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

2010-01-01

The spatial scale, runtime speed and behavioral detail of epidemic outbreak simulations together require the use of large-scale parallel processing. In this paper, an optimistic parallel discrete event execution of a reaction-diffusion simulation model of epidemic outbreaks is presented, with an implementation over themore » $$\\mu$$sik simulator. Rollback support is achieved with the development of a novel reversible model that combines reverse computation with a small amount of incremental state saving. Parallel speedup and other runtime performance metrics of the simulation are tested on a small (8,192-core) Blue Gene / P system, while scalability is demonstrated on 65,536 cores of a large Cray XT5 system. Scenarios representing large population sizes (up to several hundred million individuals in the largest case) are exercised.« less

Strategies and Exemplars for Public Outreach Events: Planning, Implementation, Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, W. H.; Buxner, S.; Shipp, S. S.; Shebby, S.

2015-12-01

IntroductionEach year the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) sponsors a variety of public outreach events to share information with educators, students, and the general public. These events are designed to increase interest in and awareness of the mission and goals of NASA. Planning and implementation best practices gleaned from the NASA SMD Education's review of large-scale events, "Best Practices in Outreach Events" will be shared. Outcomes from an event, i C Ceres, celebrating the Dawn mission's arrival at dwarf planet Ceres that utilized these strategies will be shared. Best practices included can be pertinent for all event organizers and evaluators regardless of event size. BackgroundThe literature review focused on identifying evaluations of large-scale public outreach events—and, within these evaluations, identifying best practices. The following criteria for identifying journal articles and reports to potentially include: Public, science-related events open to adults and children. Events with more than 1,000 attendees. Events that occurred during the last 5 years. Evaluations that included information on data collected from visitors and/or volunteers. Evaluations that specified the type of data collected, methodology, and associated results. Planning and Implementation Best PracticesThe literature review revealed key considerations for planning and of large-scale events implementing events. A summary of related best practices is presented below. 1) Advertise the event 2) Use and advertise access to scientists 3) Recruit scientists using these findings 4) Ensure that the event is group and particularly child friendly 5) Target specific event outcomes Best Practices Informing Real-world Planning, Implementation and EvaluationDawn mission's collaborative design of a series of events, i C Ceres, including in-person, interactive events geared to families and live presentations will be shared. Outcomes and lessons learned will be imparted rising from these events and their evaluation. There will be a focus on the family event, in particular the evidence that scientist participation was a particular driver for the event's impact and success.

GLOBAL CLIMATE AND LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ON AQUATIC ANIMAL HEALTH

EPA Science Inventory

The last 3 decades have witnessed numerous large-scale mortality events of aquatic organisms in North America. Affected species range from ecologically-important sea urchins to commercially-valuable American lobsters and protected marine mammals. Short-term forensic investigation...

Spider Transcriptomes Identify Ancient Large-Scale Gene Duplication Event Potentially Important in Silk Gland Evolution.

PubMed

Clarke, Thomas H; Garb, Jessica E; Hayashi, Cheryl Y; Arensburger, Peter; Ayoub, Nadia A

2015-06-08

The evolution of specialized tissues with novel functions, such as the silk synthesizing glands in spiders, is likely an influential driver of adaptive success. Large-scale gene duplication events and subsequent paralog divergence are thought to be required for generating evolutionary novelty. Such an event has been proposed for spiders, but not tested. We de novo assembled transcriptomes from three cobweb weaving spider species. Based on phylogenetic analyses of gene families with representatives from each of the three species, we found numerous duplication events indicative of a whole genome or segmental duplication. We estimated the age of the gene duplications relative to several speciation events within spiders and arachnids and found that the duplications likely occurred after the divergence of scorpions (order Scorpionida) and spiders (order Araneae), but before the divergence of the spider suborders Mygalomorphae and Araneomorphae, near the evolutionary origin of spider silk glands. Transcripts that are expressed exclusively or primarily within black widow silk glands are more likely to have a paralog descended from the ancient duplication event and have elevated amino acid replacement rates compared with other transcripts. Thus, an ancient large-scale gene duplication event within the spider lineage was likely an important source of molecular novelty during the evolution of silk gland-specific expression. This duplication event may have provided genetic material for subsequent silk gland diversification in the true spiders (Araneomorphae). © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turato, Barbara; Reale, Oreste; Siccardi, Franco

2003-01-01

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Best Practices in Pulic Outreach Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, Whitney; Buxner, Sanlyn; Shipp, Stephanie

2015-11-01

IntroductionEach year the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) sponsors public outreach events designed to increase student, educator, and general public engagement in its missions and goals. NASA SMD Education’s review of large-scale events, “Best Practices in Outreach Events,” highlighted planning and implementation best practices, which were used by the Dawn mission to strategize and implement its Ceres arrival celebration event, i C Ceres.BackgroundThe literature review focused on best identifying practices rising from evaluations of large-scale public outreach events. The following criteria guided the study:* Public, science-related events open to adults and children* Events that occurred during the last 5 years* Evaluations that included information on data collected from visitors and/or volunteers* Evaluations that specified the type of data collected, methodology, and associated resultsBest Practices: Planning and ImplementationThe literature review revealed key considerations for planning implement large-scale events. Best practices included can be pertinent for all event organizers and evaluators regardless of event size. A summary of related best practices is presented below.1) Advertise the event2) Use and advertise access to scientists* Attendees who reported an interaction with a science professional were 15% to 19% more likely to report positive learning impacts, (SFA, 2012, p. 24).3) Recruit scientists using findings such as:* High percentages of scientists (85% to 96%) from most events were interested in participating again (SFA, 2012).4) Ensure that the event is group and, particularly, child friendly5) Target specific event outcomesBest Practices Informing Real-world Planning, Implementation and EvaluationDawn mission’s collaborative design of a series of events, i C Ceres, including in-person, interactive events geared to families and live presentations, will be shared, with focus on the family event, and the evidence that scientist participation was a particular driver for the event’s impact and success.Science Festival Alliance (SFA). (2012). Get inspired: A first look at science festivals. Retrieved from http://sciencefestivals.org/news_item/get-inspired

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey

2017-04-01

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this research. Hopefully, all results developed from this research can be used as a warning system for Predicting Large Scale Landslides in the southern Taiwan. Keywords：Heavy Rainfall, Large Scale, landslides, Critical Rainfall Value

Investigation on the characteristics of seismic events observed during stimulation of geothermal reservoirs at Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukuhira, Y.; Asanuma, H.; Niitsuma, H.; Häring, M. O.

2011-12-01

Hydraulic stimulation is commonly used to develop engineered geothermal systems (EGS) and enhancement of oil recovery (EOR). Occurrence of seismic events with larger magnitude has been highlighted as one of the practical and critical problems. Some seismic events with moment magnitude (Mw) larger than 2.0 occurred during and after hydraulic stimulation in Basel, Switzerland, in 2006, and these large events led to the geothermal project discontinued. We defined the large event as seismic events with Mw>2.0, and have investigated fundamental characteristics of them as summarized in Table 1. It has been revealed that the characteristics of the large events are dependent on hypocentral location and origin time. We also found most of the large events occurred from 2 types of fracture planes: 6 of 9large events had FPSs with N-S azimuth. Other 3 large events including the largest events had FPSs ESE-WNW azimuth, which can be interpreted as "most slip-able" under stress state at Basel. The large events clearly followed "constant stress drop scaling law". We also estimated critical pore pressure for shear slip using Coulomb failure criterion, and have revealed that the critical pore pressure of the large events was relatively lower. Our result shows that the occurrences of the large events can not be simply interpreted by previous experience on induced seismicity.

Morphological response of a large-scale coastal blowout to a strong magnitude transport event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado-Fernandez, Irene; Jackson, Derek; Smith, Alexander; Smyth, Thomas

2017-04-01

Large-scale blowouts are fundamental features of many coastal dune fields in temperate areas around the world. These distinctive erosional (mostly unvegetated) landform features are often characterised by a significant depression area and a connected depositional lobe at their downwind edges. These areas also provide important transport corridors to inland parts of the dune system and can provide ideal habitats for specialist flora and fauna as well as helping to enhance landscape diversity. The actual morphology and shape/size of blowouts can significantly modify the overlying atmospheric boundary layer of the wind, influencing wind flow steering and intensity within the blowout, and ultimately aeolian sediment transport. While investigations of morphological changes within blowouts have largely focused on the medium (months) to long (annual/decadal) temporal scale, studies of aeolian transport dynamics within blowouts have predominantly focused on the short-term (event) scale. Work on wind-transport processes in blowouts is still relatively rare, with ad-hoc studies providing only limited information on airflow and aeolian transport. Large-scale blowouts are characterised by elongated basins that can reach hundreds of meters, potentially resulting in airflow and transport dynamics that are very different from their smaller scale counterparts. This research focuses on a short-term, strong wind event measured at the Devil's Hole blowout (Sefton dunes, NW England), a large-scale blowout feature approximately 300 m in length and 100 m in width. In situ measurements of airflow and aeolian transport were collected during a short-term experiment on the 22nd October 2015. A total of twenty three, 3D ultrasonic anemometers, sand traps, and wenglor sensors were deployed in a spatial grid covering the distal end of the basin, walls, and depositional lobe. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) was used to quantify morphological changes within the blowout before and after the strong magnitude transport event. This allowed, for the first time, examination of the morphological response as a direct result of a high energy wind event as it passes through a large-scale blowout. Results indicate strong steering and acceleration of the wind along the blowout basin and up the south wall opposite to the incident regional winds. These accelerated flows generated very strong transport rates of up to 3 g/s along the basin, and moderate strong transport rates of up to 1.5 g/s up the steep north wall. The coupling of high-frequency wind events and transport response together with topographic changes defined by TLS data allows, for the first time, the ability to co-connect the morphological evolution of a coastal blowout landform with the localised driving processes.

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

On the feasibility of using satellite gravity observations for detecting large-scale solid mass transfer events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peidou, Athina C.; Fotopoulos, Georgia; Pagiatakis, Spiros

2017-10-01

The main focus of this paper is to assess the feasibility of utilizing dedicated satellite gravity missions in order to detect large-scale solid mass transfer events (e.g. landslides). Specifically, a sensitivity analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity field solutions in conjunction with simulated case studies is employed to predict gravity changes due to past subaerial and submarine mass transfer events, namely the Agulhas slump in southeastern Africa and the Heart Mountain Landslide in northwestern Wyoming. The detectability of these events is evaluated by taking into account the expected noise level in the GRACE gravity field solutions and simulating their impact on the gravity field through forward modelling of the mass transfer. The spectral content of the estimated gravity changes induced by a simulated large-scale landslide event is estimated for the known spatial resolution of the GRACE observations using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The results indicate that both the Agulhas slump and the Heart Mountain Landslide could have been detected by GRACE, resulting in {\\vert }0.4{\\vert } and {\\vert }0.18{\\vert } mGal change on GRACE solutions, respectively. The suggested methodology is further extended to the case studies of the submarine landslide in Tohoku, Japan, and the Grand Banks landslide in Newfoundland, Canada. The detectability of these events using GRACE solutions is assessed through their impact on the gravity field.

Australia's economic transition, unemployment, suicide and mental health needs.

PubMed

Myles, Nicholas; Large, Matthew; Myles, Hannah; Adams, Robert; Liu, Dennis; Galletly, Cherrie

2017-02-01

There have been substantial changes in workforce and employment patterns in Australia over the past 50 years as a result of economic globalisation. This has resulted in substantial reduction in employment in the manufacturing industry often with large-scale job losses in concentrated sectors and communities. Large-scale job loss events receive significant community attention. To what extent these mass unemployment events contribute to increased psychological distress, mental illness and suicide in affected individuals warrants further consideration. Here we undertake a narrative review of published job loss literature. We discuss the impact that large-scale job loss events in the manufacturing sector may have on population mental health, with particular reference to contemporary trends in the Australian economy. We also provide a commentary on the expected outcomes of future job loss events in this context and the implications for Australian public mental health care services. Job loss due to plant closure results in a doubling of psychological distress that peaks 9 months following the unemployment event. The link between job loss and increased rates of mental illness and suicide is less clear. The threat of impending job loss and the social context in which job loss occurs has a significant bearing on psychological outcomes. The implications for Australian public mental health services are discussed.

The morphometric and stratigraphic framework for estimates of debris flow incidence in the North Cascades foothills, Washington State, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovanen, Dori J.; Slaymaker, Olav

2008-07-01

Active debris flow fans in the North Cascade Foothills of Washington State constitute a natural hazard of importance to land managers, private property owners and personal security. In the absence of measurements of the sediment fluxes involved in debris flow events, a morphological-evolutionary systems approach, emphasizing stratigraphy, dating, fan morphology and debris flow basin morphometry, was used. Using the stratigraphic framework and 47 radiocarbon dates, frequency of occurrence and relative magnitudes of debris flow events have been estimated for three spatial scales of debris flow systems: the within-fan site scale (84 observations); the fan meso-scale (six observations) and the lumped fan, regional or macro-scale (one fan average and adjacent lake sediments). In order to characterize the morphometric framework, plots of basin area v. fan area, basin area v. fan gradient and the Melton ruggedness number v. fan gradient for the 12 debris flow basins were compared with those documented for semi-arid and paraglacial fans. Basin area to fan area ratios were generally consistent with the estimated level of debris flow activity during the Holocene as reported below. Terrain analysis of three of the most active debris flow basins revealed the variety of modes of slope failure and sediment production in the region. Micro-scale debris flow event systems indicated a range of recurrence intervals for large debris flows from 106-3645 years. The spatial variation of these rates across the fans was generally consistent with previously mapped hazard zones. At the fan meso-scale, the range of recurrence intervals for large debris flows was 273-1566 years and at the regional scale, the estimated recurrence interval of large debris flows was 874 years (with undetermined error bands) during the past 7290 years. Dated lake sediments from the adjacent Lake Whatcom gave recurrence intervals for large sediment producing events ranging from 481-557 years over the past 3900 years and clearly discernible sedimentation events in the lacustrine sediments had a recurrence interval of 67-78 years over that same period.

A follow-up study of hygiene in catering premises at large-scale events in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Willis, C; Elviss, N; McLauchlin, J

2015-01-01

To investigate food hygiene practices at large events by assessing the microbiological quality of ready-to-eat food, drinking water, food preparation surfaces, cleaning cloths and wristbands worn by food handlers for event security purposes. Over a 7-month period, 1662 samples were collected at 153 events and examined for microbiological contamination. Eight per cent of food samples were of an unsatisfactory quality. A further one per cent contained potentially hazardous levels of human pathogenic bacteria. 27% of water samples, 32% of swabs and 56% of cloths were also unsatisfactory. These results represented an improvement in hygiene compared to a previous study carried out 12 months previously. A fifth of food handler wristbands were contaminated with Enterobacteriaceae, Escherichia coli and/or coagulase-positive staphylococci, with those bands made from fabric being more frequently contaminated than those made from plastic or other materials. This study provides evidence that the food hygiene at large-scale events may have improved. However, there is still a need for continued efforts to maintain an ongoing improvement in cleaning regimes and food hygiene management. This study was part of an ongoing focus on large events in the lead-up to the London 2012 Olympics. Lessons learnt here will be important in the planning of future large events. © 2014 Crown copyright. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology This article is Published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Characterization and prediction of extreme events in turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonda, Enrico; Iyer, Kartik P.; Sreenivasan, Katepalli R.

2017-11-01

Extreme events in Nature such as tornadoes, large floods and strong earthquakes are rare but can have devastating consequences. The predictability of these events is very limited at present. Extreme events in turbulence are the very large events in small scales that are intermittent in character. We examine events in energy dissipation rate and enstrophy which are several tens to hundreds to thousands of times the mean value. To this end we use our DNS database of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence with Taylor Reynolds numbers spanning a decade, computed with different small scale resolutions and different box sizes, and study the predictability of these events using machine learning. We start with an aggressive data augmentation to virtually increase the number of these rare events by two orders of magnitude and train a deep convolutional neural network to predict their occurrence in an independent data set. The goal of the work is to explore whether extreme events can be predicted with greater assurance than can be done by conventional methods (e.g., D.A. Donzis & K.R. Sreenivasan, J. Fluid Mech. 647, 13-26, 2010).

Moisture source classification of heavy precipitation events in Switzerland in the last 130 years (1871-2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aemisegger, Franziska; Piaget, Nicolas

2017-04-01

A new weather-system oriented classification framework of extreme precipitation events leading to large-scale floods in Switzerland is presented on this poster. Thirty-six high impact floods in the last 130 years are assigned to three representative categories of atmospheric moisture origin and transport patterns. The methodology underlying this moisture source classification combines information of the airmass history in the twenty days preceding the precipitation event with humidity variations along the large-scale atmospheric transport systems in a Lagrangian approach. The classification scheme is defined using the 33-year ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1979-2011) and is then applied to the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (1871-2011) extreme precipitation events as well as the 36 selected floods. The three defined categories are characterised by different dominant moisture uptake regions including the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and continental Europe. Furthermore, distinct anomalies in the large-scale atmospheric flow are associated with the different categories. The temporal variations in the relative importance of the three categories over the last 130 years provides new insights into the impact of changing climate conditions on the dynamical mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation in Switzerland.

Downscaling large-scale circulation to local winter climate using neural network techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos Perez, Maria Tereza

1998-12-01

The severe impacts of climate variability on society reveal the increasing need for improving regional-scale climate diagnosis. A new downscaling approach for climate diagnosis is developed here. It is based on neural network techniques that derive transfer functions from the large-scale atmospheric controls to the local winter climate in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas during the 1985-93 period. A first neural network (NN) model employs time-lagged component scores from a rotated principal component analysis of SLP, 500-hPa heights, and 1000-500 hPa thickness as predictors of daily precipitation. The model is able to reproduce the phase and, to some decree, the amplitude of large rainfall events, reflecting the influence of the large-scale circulation. Large errors are found over the Sierra Madre, over the Gulf of Mexico, and during El Nino events, suggesting an increase in the importance of meso-scale rainfall processes. However, errors are also due to the lack of randomization of the input data and the absence of local atmospheric predictors such as moisture. Thus, a second NN model uses time-lagged specific humidity at the Earth's surface and at the 700 hPa level, SLP tendency, and 700-500 hPa thickness as input to a self-organizing map (SOM) that pre-classifies the atmospheric fields into different patterns. The results from the SOM classification document that negative (positive) anomalies of winter precipitation over the region are associated with: (1) weaker (stronger) Aleutian low; (2) stronger (weaker) North Pacific high; (3) negative (positive) phase of the Pacific North American pattern; and (4) La Nina (El Nino) events. The SOM atmospheric patterns are then used as input to a feed-forward NN that captures over 60% of the daily rainfall variance and 94% of the daily minimum temperature variance over the region. This demonstrates the ability of artificial neural network models to simulate realistic relationships on daily time scales. The results of this research also reveal that the SOM pre-classification of days with similar atmospheric conditions succeeded in emphasizing the differences of the atmospheric variance conducive to extreme events. This resulted in a downscaling NN model that is highly sensitive to local-scale weather anomalies associated with El Nino and extreme cold events.

Visual Data-Analytics of Large-Scale Parallel Discrete-Event Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ross, Caitlin; Carothers, Christopher D.; Mubarak, Misbah

Parallel discrete-event simulation (PDES) is an important tool in the codesign of extreme-scale systems because PDES provides a cost-effective way to evaluate designs of highperformance computing systems. Optimistic synchronization algorithms for PDES, such as Time Warp, allow events to be processed without global synchronization among the processing elements. A rollback mechanism is provided when events are processed out of timestamp order. Although optimistic synchronization protocols enable the scalability of large-scale PDES, the performance of the simulations must be tuned to reduce the number of rollbacks and provide an improved simulation runtime. To enable efficient large-scale optimistic simulations, one has tomore » gain insight into the factors that affect the rollback behavior and simulation performance. We developed a tool for ROSS model developers that gives them detailed metrics on the performance of their large-scale optimistic simulations at varying levels of simulation granularity. Model developers can use this information for parameter tuning of optimistic simulations in order to achieve better runtime and fewer rollbacks. In this work, we instrument the ROSS optimistic PDES framework to gather detailed statistics about the simulation engine. We have also developed an interactive visualization interface that uses the data collected by the ROSS instrumentation to understand the underlying behavior of the simulation engine. The interface connects real time to virtual time in the simulation and provides the ability to view simulation data at different granularities. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework by performing a visual analysis of the dragonfly network topology model provided by the CODES simulation framework built on top of ROSS. The instrumentation needs to minimize overhead in order to accurately collect data about the simulation performance. To ensure that the instrumentation does not introduce unnecessary overhead, we perform a scaling study that compares instrumented ROSS simulations with their noninstrumented counterparts in order to determine the amount of perturbation when running at different simulation scales.« less

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pederson, Neil; Dyer, James M.; McEwan, Ryan W.; Hessl, Amy E.; Mock, Cary J.; Orwig, David A.; Rieder, Harald E.; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

[Analysis of the incidence and causes of mass casualty events in a southern Germany medical rescue area].

PubMed

Beck, A; Bayeff-Filloff, M; Bischoff, M; Schneider, B M

2002-11-01

The growing number of mass casualty events during the early 1990s led, in January 1996, to the foundation of an honorary group of specially trained emergency physicians for dealing primarily with the management of large-scale emergency events and mass casualties. The incidence and quantity of these casualties was analysed in order to be better prepared for such events in the future. All calls prospectively registered by the Augsburg Rescue Co-ordination Centre (ARCC) in the 5 years from July 1997 to June 2002 were analysed, distinguishing between the different types of damage, number of patients involved, and time of occurrence (time of day/season). The area served by the ARCC includes the city of Augsburg with its surrounding counties. An estimated 850,000 inhabitants live in this area of 4,100 square kilometers (1,600 square miles). Since 1998, more than 145,000 calls a year have been dealt with of which 28,000 were covered by emergency physicians. In the 5 year period discussed here, 75 large-scale-calls were registered, giving an average incidence of 1.25 calls/month. Most of the calls were fire alarms, followed by car accidents. In total, we were able to serve more than 800 patients. The lowest number per event was two people during an emergency landing of a sport aircraft; the largest number was about 150 patients during a large open-air event in the city. While there was no difference in the time of day at which the event happened, most occurred in November and December. Taking these results into account, the authors, supported by the members of the emergency physician team of the German Trauma Society, developed an algorithm describing the optimal procedure for mass casualty events. This is presented here. In mass casualty or large-scale emergency events, an experienced emergency physician is necessary to co-ordinate the rescue brigades on site.

Peculiarity of Seismicity in the Balakend-Zagatal Region, Azerbaijan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ismail-Zadeh, Tahir T.

2006-03-23

The study of seismicity in the Balakend-Zagatal region demonstrates a temporal correlation of small events in the region with the moderate events in Caucasus for the time interval of 1980 to 1990. It is shown that the processes resulting in deformation and tectonic movements of main structural elements of the Caucasus region are internal and are not related to large-scale tectonic processes. A week dependence of the regional movements on the large-scale motion of the lithospheric plates and microplates is apparent from another geological and geodetic data as well.

Avalanche Statistics Identify Intrinsic Stellar Processes near Criticality in KIC 8462852

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheikh, Mohammed A.; Weaver, Richard L.; Dahmen, Karin A.

2016-12-01

The star KIC8462852 (Tabby's star) has shown anomalous drops in light flux. We perform a statistical analysis of the more numerous smaller dimming events by using methods found useful for avalanches in ferromagnetism and plastic flow. Scaling exponents for avalanche statistics and temporal profiles of the flux during the dimming events are close to mean field predictions. Scaling collapses suggest that this star may be near a nonequilibrium critical point. The large events are interpreted as avalanches marked by modified dynamics, limited by the system size, and not within the scaling regime.

Analysis of Large Scale Spatial Variability of Soil Moisture Using a Geostatistical Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-25

2010 / Accepted: 19 January 2010 / Published: 25 January 2010 Abstract: Spatial and temporal soil moisture dynamics are critically needed to...scale observed and simulated estimates of soil moisture under pre- and post-precipitation event conditions. This large scale variability is a crucial... dynamics is essential in the hydrological and meteorological modeling, improves our understanding of land surface–atmosphere interactions. Spatial and

Filtering large-scale event collections using a combination of supervised and unsupervised learning for event trigger classification.

PubMed

Mehryary, Farrokh; Kaewphan, Suwisa; Hakala, Kai; Ginter, Filip

2016-01-01

Biomedical event extraction is one of the key tasks in biomedical text mining, supporting various applications such as database curation and hypothesis generation. Several systems, some of which have been applied at a large scale, have been introduced to solve this task. Past studies have shown that the identification of the phrases describing biological processes, also known as trigger detection, is a crucial part of event extraction, and notable overall performance gains can be obtained by solely focusing on this sub-task. In this paper we propose a novel approach for filtering falsely identified triggers from large-scale event databases, thus improving the quality of knowledge extraction. Our method relies on state-of-the-art word embeddings, event statistics gathered from the whole biomedical literature, and both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques. We focus on EVEX, an event database covering the whole PubMed and PubMed Central Open Access literature containing more than 40 million extracted events. The top most frequent EVEX trigger words are hierarchically clustered, and the resulting cluster tree is pruned to identify words that can never act as triggers regardless of their context. For rarely occurring trigger words we introduce a supervised approach trained on the combination of trigger word classification produced by the unsupervised clustering method and manual annotation. The method is evaluated on the official test set of BioNLP Shared Task on Event Extraction. The evaluation shows that the method can be used to improve the performance of the state-of-the-art event extraction systems. This successful effort also translates into removing 1,338,075 of potentially incorrect events from EVEX, thus greatly improving the quality of the data. The method is not solely bound to the EVEX resource and can be thus used to improve the quality of any event extraction system or database. The data and source code for this work are available at: http://bionlp-www.utu.fi/trigger-clustering/.

Variations of trends of indicators describing complex systems: Change of scaling precursory to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A. A.

2010-09-01

Socioeconomic and natural complex systems persistently generate extreme events also known as disasters, crises, or critical transitions. Here we analyze patterns of background activity preceding extreme events in four complex systems: economic recessions, surges in homicides in a megacity, magnetic storms, and strong earthquakes. We use as a starting point the indicators describing the system's behavior and identify changes in an indicator's trend. Those changes constitute our background events (BEs). We demonstrate a premonitory pattern common to all four systems considered: relatively large magnitude BEs become more frequent before extreme event. A premonitory change of scaling has been found in various models and observations. Here we demonstrate this change in scaling of uniformly defined BEs in four real complex systems, their enormous differences notwithstanding.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns Associated with the Interannual Variability of Heatwaves in East Asia and Its Decadal Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, N.; Lee, M. I.; Lim, Y. K.; Kim, K. M.

2017-12-01

Heatwave is an extreme hot weather event which accompanies fatal damage to human health. The heatwave has a strong relationship with the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In this study, we examine the spatial pattern of heatwave in East Asia by using the EOF analysis and the relationship between heatwave frequency and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. We also separate the time scale of heatwave frequency as the time scale longer than a decade and the interannual time scale. The long-term variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a linkage with the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic with a decadal time scale (a.k.a. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). On the other hands, the interannual variation of heatwave frequency is linked with the two dominant spatial patterns associated with the large-scale teleconnection patterns mimicking the Scandinavian teleconnection (SCAND-like) pattern and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT-like) pattern, respectively. It is highlighted that the interannual variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a remarkable change after mid-1990s. While the heatwave frequency was mainly associated with the CGT-like pattern before mid-1990s, the SCAND-like pattern becomes the most dominant one after mid-1990s, making the CGT-like pattern as the second. This study implies that the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns play a key role in developing heatwave events in East Asia. This study further discusses possible mechanisms for the decadal change in the linkage between heatwave frequency and the large-scale teleconnection patterns in East Asia such as early melting of snow cover and/or weakening of East Asian jet stream due to global warming.

Validation of the Impact of Event Scale for Psychological Sequelae of Combat.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwarzwald, Joseph; And Others

1987-01-01

Attempted to validate the Impact of Event Scale (IES) with a large sample of males who had been exposed to combat trauma. The IES was shown to be sensitive to differences between and within the three subject groups (combat stress reaction group, combat control group, noncombat control group). Four basic patterns of intrusion and avoidance were…

A large scale membrane-binding protein conformational change that initiates at small length scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandpre, Trevor; Andorf, Matthew; Chakravarthy, Srinivas; Lamb, Robert; Poor, Taylor; Landahl, Eric

2013-03-01

The fusion (F) protein of parainfluenza virus 5 (PIV5) is a membrane-bound, homotrimeric glycoprotein located on the surface of PIV5 viral envelopes. Upon being triggered by the receptor-binding protein (HN), F undergoes a greater than 100Å ATP-independent refolding event. This refolding event results in the insertion of a hydrophobic fusion peptide into the membrane of the target cell, followed by the desolvation and subsequent fusion event as the two membranes are brought together. Isothermal calorimetry and hydrophobic dye incorporation experiments indicate that the soluble construct of the F protein undergoes a conformational rearrangement event at around 55 deg C. We present the results of an initial Time-Resolved Small-Angle X-Ray Scattering (TR-SAXS) study of this large scale, entropically driven conformational change using a temperature jump. Although we the measured radius of gyration of this protein changes on a 110 second timescale, we find that the x-ray scattering intensity at higher angles (corresponding to smaller length scales in the protein) changes nearly an order of magnitude faster. We believe this may be a signature of entropically-driven conformational change. To whom correspondence should be addressed

Track-based event recognition in a realistic crowded environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Huis, Jasper R.; Bouma, Henri; Baan, Jan; Burghouts, Gertjan J.; Eendebak, Pieter T.; den Hollander, Richard J. M.; Dijk, Judith; van Rest, Jeroen H.

2014-10-01

Automatic detection of abnormal behavior in CCTV cameras is important to improve the security in crowded environments, such as shopping malls, airports and railway stations. This behavior can be characterized at different time scales, e.g., by small-scale subtle and obvious actions or by large-scale walking patterns and interactions between people. For example, pickpocketing can be recognized by the actual snatch (small scale), when he follows the victim, or when he interacts with an accomplice before and after the incident (longer time scale). This paper focusses on event recognition by detecting large-scale track-based patterns. Our event recognition method consists of several steps: pedestrian detection, object tracking, track-based feature computation and rule-based event classification. In the experiment, we focused on single track actions (walk, run, loiter, stop, turn) and track interactions (pass, meet, merge, split). The experiment includes a controlled setup, where 10 actors perform these actions. The method is also applied to all tracks that are generated in a crowded shopping mall in a selected time frame. The results show that most of the actions can be detected reliably (on average 90%) at a low false positive rate (1.1%), and that the interactions obtain lower detection rates (70% at 0.3% FP). This method may become one of the components that assists operators to find threatening behavior and enrich the selection of videos that are to be observed.

Recovery from Large-Scale Crises: Guidelines for Crisis Teams and Administrators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Communique, 2018

2018-01-01

The United States has recently experienced numerous large-scale crises that resulted in high death tolls and extensive property damage. Critical incidents such as suicide contagion, natural disasters, or mass casualty events have the potential to cause traumatic reactions and significantly affect children's sense of safety and security. School…

Dynamics of Large-scale Coronal Structures as Imaged during the 2012 and 2013 Total Solar Eclipses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alzate, Nathalia; Habbal, Shadia R.; Druckmüller, Miloslav; Emmanouilidis, Constantinos; Morgan, Huw

2017-10-01

White light images acquired at the peak of solar activity cycle 24, during the total solar eclipses of 2012 November 13 and 2013 November 3, serendipitously captured erupting prominences accompanied by CMEs. Application of state-of-the-art image processing techniques revealed the intricate details of two “atypical” large-scale structures, with strikingly sharp boundaries. By complementing the processed white light eclipse images with processed images from co-temporal Solar Dynamics Observatory/AIA and SOHO/LASCO observations, we show how the shape of these atypical structures matches the shape of faint CME shock fronts, which traversed the inner corona a few hours prior to the eclipse observations. The two events were not associated with any prominence eruption but were triggered by sudden brightening events on the solar surface accompanied by sprays and jets. The discovery of the indelible impact that frequent and innocuous transient events in the low corona can have on large-scale coronal structures was enabled by the radial span of the high-resolution white light eclipse images, starting from the solar surface out to several solar radii, currently unmatched by any coronagraphic instrumentation. These findings raise the interesting question as to whether large-scale coronal structures can ever be considered stationary. They also point to the existence of a much larger number of CMEs that goes undetected from the suite of instrumentation currently observing the Sun.

Characteristics of medium- and large-scale TIDs over Japan derived from OI 630-nm nightglow observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, M.; Fukunishi, H.; Okano, S.

2001-07-01

A new optical instrument for studying upper atmospheric dynamics, called the Multicolor All-sky Imaging System (MAIS), has been developed. The MAIS can obtain all-sky images of airglow emission at two different wavelengths simultaneously with a time resolution of several minutes. Since December 1991, imaging observations with the MAIS have been conducted at the Zao observatory (38.09°N, 140.56°E). From these observations, two interesting events with wave structures have been detected in OI 630-nm nightglow images. The first event was observed on the night of June 2/3, 1992 during a geomagnetically quiet period. Simultaneous data of ionospheric parameters showed that they are caused by propagation of the medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (TID). Phase velocity and horizontal wavelength determined from the image data are 45-100 m/s and ~280 km, and the propagation direction is south-westward. The second event was observed on the night of February 27/28, 1992 during a geomagnetic storm. It is found that a large enhancement of OI 630-nm emission is caused by a propagation of the large-scale TID. Meridional components of phase velocities and wavelengths determined from ionospheric data are 305-695 m/s (southward) and 930-5250 km. The source of this large-scale TID appears to be auroral processes at high latitudes.

The interaction between active normal faulting and large scale gravitational mass movements revealed by paleoseismological techniques: A case study from central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moro, M.; Saroli, M.; Gori, S.; Falcucci, E.; Galadini, F.; Messina, P.

2012-05-01

Paleoseismological techniques have been applied to characterize the kinematic behaviour of large-scale gravitational phenomena located in proximity of the seismogenic fault responsible for the Mw 7.0, 1915 Avezzano earthquake and to identify evidence of a possible coseismic reactivation. The above mentioned techniques were applied to the surface expression of the main sliding planes of the Mt. Serrone gravitational deformation, located in the southeastern border of the Fucino basin (central Italy). The approach allows us to detect instantaneous events of deformation along the uphill-facing scarp. These events are testified by the presence of faulted deposits and colluvial wedges. The identified and chronologically-constrained episodes of rapid displacement can be probably correlated with seismic events determined by the activation of the Fucino seismogenic fault, affecting the toe of the gravitationally unstable rock mass. Indeed this fault can produce strong, short-term dynamic stresses able to trigger the release of local gravitational stress accumulated by Mt. Serrone's large-scale gravitational phenomena. The applied methodology could allow us to better understand the geometric and kinematic relationships between active tectonic structures and large-scale gravitational phenomena. It would be more important in seismically active regions, since deep-seated gravitational slope deformations can evolve into a catastrophic collapse and can strongly increase the level of earthquake-induced hazards.

Analysis of Seismic Moment Tensor and Finite-Source Scaling During EGS Resource Development at The Geysers, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, O. S.; Dreger, D. S.; Gritto, R.

2015-12-01

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource development requires knowledge of subsurface physical parameters to quantify the evolution of fracture networks. We investigate seismicity in the vicinity of the EGS development at The Geysers Prati-32 injection well to determine moment magnitude, focal mechanism, and kinematic finite-source models with the goal of developing a rupture area scaling relationship for the Geysers and specifically for the Prati-32 EGS injection experiment. Thus far we have analyzed moment tensors of M ≥ 2 events, and are developing the capability to analyze the large numbers of events occurring as a result of the fluid injection and to push the analysis to smaller magnitude earthquakes. We have also determined finite-source models for five events ranging in magnitude from M 3.7 to 4.5. The scaling relationship between rupture area and moment magnitude of these events resembles that of a published empirical relationship derived for events from M 4.5 to 8.3. We plan to develop a scaling relationship in which moment magnitude and corner frequency are predictor variables for source rupture area constrained by the finite-source modeling. Inclusion of corner frequency in the empirical scaling relationship is proposed to account for possible variations in stress drop. If successful, we will use this relationship to extrapolate to the large numbers of events in the EGS seismicity cloud to estimate the coseismic fracture density. We will present the moment tensor and corner frequency results for the micro earthquakes, and for select events, finite-source models. Stress drop inferred from corner frequencies and from finite-source modeling will be compared.

Properties of a Small-scale Short-duration Solar Eruption with a Driven Shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Beili; Feng, Li; Lu, Lei; Zhang, Jie; Magdalenic, Jasmina; Su, Yingna; Su, Yang; Gan, Weiqun

2018-03-01

Large-scale solar eruptions have been extensively explored over many years. However, the properties of small-scale events with associated shocks have rarely been investigated. We present analyses of a small-scale, short-duration event originating from a small region. The impulsive phase of the M1.9-class flare lasted only four minutes. The kinematic evolution of the CME hot channel reveals some exceptional characteristics, including a very short duration of the main acceleration phase (<2 minutes), a rather high maximal acceleration rate (∼50 km s‑2), and peak velocity (∼1800 km s‑1). The fast and impulsive kinematics subsequently results in a piston-driven shock related to a metric type II radio burst with a high starting frequency of ∼320 MHz of the fundamental band. The type II source is formed at a low height of below 1.1 R ⊙ less than ∼2 minutes after the onset of the main acceleration phase. Through the band-split of the type II burst, the shock compression ratio decreases from 2.2 to 1.3, and the magnetic field strength of the shock upstream region decreases from 13 to 0.5 Gauss at heights of 1.1–2.3 R ⊙. We find that the CME (∼4 × 1030 erg) and flare (∼1.6 × 1030 erg) consume similar amounts of magnetic energy. The same conclusion for large-scale eruptions implies that small- and large-scale events possibly share a similar relationship between CMEs and flares. The kinematic particularities of this event are possibly related to the small footpoint-separation distance of the associated magnetic flux rope, as predicted by the Erupting Flux Rope model.

Using remotely sensed data and stochastic models to simulate realistic flood hazard footprints across the continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Sampson, C. C.; Smith, A.; Wing, O.; Neal, J. C.

2017-12-01

Remotely sensed data has transformed the field of large scale hydraulic modelling. New digital elevation, hydrography and river width data has allowed such models to be created for the first time, and remotely sensed observations of water height, slope and water extent has allowed them to be calibrated and tested. As a result, we are now able to conduct flood risk analyses at national, continental or even global scales. However, continental scale analyses have significant additional complexity compared to typical flood risk modelling approaches. Traditional flood risk assessment uses frequency curves to define the magnitude of extreme flows at gauging stations. The flow values for given design events, such as the 1 in 100 year return period flow, are then used to drive hydraulic models in order to produce maps of flood hazard. Such an approach works well for single gauge locations and local models because over relatively short river reaches (say 10-60km) one can assume that the return period of an event does not vary. At regional to national scales and across multiple river catchments this assumption breaks down, and for a given flood event the return period will be different at different gauging stations, a pattern known as the event `footprint'. Despite this, many national scale risk analyses still use `constant in space' return period hazard layers (e.g. the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas) in their calculations. Such an approach can estimate potential exposure, but will over-estimate risk and cannot determine likely flood losses over a whole region or country. We address this problem by using a stochastic model to simulate many realistic extreme event footprints based on observed gauged flows and the statistics of gauge to gauge correlations. We take the entire USGS gauge data catalogue for sites with > 45 years of record and use a conditional approach for multivariate extreme values to generate sets of flood events with realistic return period variation in space. We undertake a number of quality checks of the stochastic model and compare real and simulated footprints to show that the method is able to re-create realistic patterns even at continental scales where there is large variation in flood generating mechanisms. We then show how these patterns can be used to drive a large scale 2D hydraulic to predict regional scale flooding.

Atmospheric Dynamics of Sub-Tropical Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar

Meso-alpha/beta scale observational and meso-beta/gamma scale numerical model analyses were performed to study the atmospheric dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodele Depression dust storms. For each dust storm case study, MERRA reanalysis datasets, WRF simulated very high resolution datasets, MODIS/Aqua and Terra images, EUMETSAT images, NAAPS aerosol modelling plots, CALIPSO images, surface observations, and rawinsonde soundings were analyzed. The analysis of each dust storm carried out separately and an in-depth comparison of the events shows some similarities among the three case studies: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) small scale dust emission events which occurred prior to the formation of the primary large-scale dust storms, (3) cross mountain flows which produced a strong leeside inversion layer prior to the large scale dust storm, (4) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the mid-tropospheric jet streak in the lee of the mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (5) major dust storm formation was accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-beta scale adjustment process, (6) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), (7) formation in the lee of nearby mountains, and (8) the emission of the dust occurred initially in narrow meso-beta scale zones parallel to the mountains, and later reached the meso-alpha scale when suspended dust was transported away from the mountains. In addition to this there were additional meso-beta scale and meso-gamma scale adjustment processes resulting in Kelvin waves in the Harmattan and the Bodele Depression cases and the thermally-forced MPS circulation in all of these three cases. The Kelvin wave preceded a cold pool accompanying the air behind the large scale cold front instrumental in the major dust storm. The Kelvin wave organized the major dust storm in a narrow zone parallel to the mountains before it expanded upscale. The thermally-forced meos-gamma scale adjustment processes, which occurred in the canyons/small valleys, resulted in the numerous dust streaks leading to the entry of the dust into the atmosphere due to the presence of significant vertical motion and the TKE generation. This indicates that there were meso-beta to meso-gamma scale adjustment processes at the lower levels after the imbalance within the exit region of the upper level jet streaks and these processes were responsible for causing the large scale dust storms. Most notably, the sub-tropical jet streak caused the dust storm nearer to the equatorial region after its interaction with the thermally perturbed air mass on the lee of the Tibesti Mountains in the Bodele case study, which is different than the two other cases where the polar jet streaks played this same role at higher latitudes. This represents an original finding. Additionally, a climatological analysis of 15 years (1997-2011) of dust events over the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) in the desert of Southern California was performed to evaluate how the extratropical systems influenced the cause of dust storms over this region. This study indicates that dust events were associated with the development of a deep convective boundary layer, turbulent kinetic energy ≥3 J/kg, a lapse rate between dry adiabatic and moist adiabatic, wind speed above the frictional threshold wind speed necessary to ablate dust from the surface (≥7.3m/s), above the surface the presence of a cold trough, and strong cyclonic jet. These processes are similar in many ways to the dynamics in the other subtropical case studies. This also indicated that the annual mean number of dust events, their mean duration, and the unit duration per number of event were positively correlated with each of the visibility ranges, when binned for <11.2km, <8km, <4.8km, <1.6km, and <1km. The percentage of the dust events by season show that most of the dust events occurred in autumn (44.7%), followed by spring (38.3%) and equally in summer and winter with these seasons each accounting for 8.5% of events.

Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

A SOLAR CORONAL JET EVENT TRIGGERS A CORONAL MASS EJECTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Jiajia; Wang, Yuming; Shen, Chenglong

2015-11-10

In this paper, we present multi-point, multi-wavelength observations and analysis of a solar coronal jet and coronal mass ejection (CME) event. Employing the GCS model, we obtained the real (three-dimensional) heliocentric distance and direction of the CME and found it to propagate at a high speed of over 1000 km s{sup −1}. The jet erupted before the CME and shared the same source region. The temporal and spacial relationship between these two events lead us to the possibility that the jet triggered the CME and became its core. This scenario hold the promise of enriching our understanding of the triggeringmore » mechanism of CMEs and their relations to coronal large-scale jets. On the other hand, the magnetic field configuration of the source region observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/HMI instrument along with the off-limb inverse Y-shaped configuration observed by SDO/AIA in the 171 Å passband provide the first detailed observation of the three-dimensional reconnection process of a large-scale jet as simulated in Pariat et al. The eruption process of the jet highlights the importance of filament-like material during the eruption of not only small-scale X-ray jets, but likely also of large-scale EUV jets. Based on our observations and analysis, we propose the most probable mechanism for the whole event, with a blob structure overlaying the three-dimensional structure of the jet, to describe the interaction between the jet and the CME.« less

Determining hillslope-channel connectivity in an agricultural catchment using rare-earth oxide tracers and random forests.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselink, Rens; Temme, Arnaud; Giménez, Rafael; Casalí, Javier; Keesstra, Saskia

2017-04-01

Soil erosion from agricultural areas is a large problem, because of off-site effects like the rapid filling of reservoirs. To mitigate the problem of sediments from agricultural areas reaching the channel, reservoirs and other surface waters, it is important to understand hillslope-channel connectivity and catchment connectivity. To determine the functioning of hillslope-channel connectivity and the continuation of transport of these sediments in the channel, it is necessary to obtain data on sediment transport from the hillslopes to the channels. Simultaneously, the factors that influence sediment export out of the catchment need to be studied. For measuring hillslope-channel sediment connectivity, Rare-Earth Oxide (REO) tracers were applied to a hillslope in an agricultural catchment in Navarre, Spain, preceding the winter of 2014-2015. The results showed that during the winter there was no sediment transport from the hillslope to the channel. Analysis of precipitation data showed that total precipitation quantities did not differ much from the mean. However, precipitation intensities were low, causing little sediment mobilisation. To test the implication of the REO results at the catchment scale, two conceptual models for sediment connectivity were assessed using a Random Forest (RF) machine learning method. One model proposes that small events provide sediment for large events, while the other proposes that only large events cause sediment detachment and small events subsequently remove these sediments from near and in the channel. The RF method was applied to a daily dataset of sediment yield from the catchment (N=2451 days), and two subsets of the whole dataset: small events (N=2319) and large events (N=132). For sediment yield prediction of small events, variables related to large preceding events were the most important. The model for large events underperformed and, therefore, we could not draw any immediate conclusions whether small events influence the amount of sediment exported during large events. Both REO tracers and RF method showed that low intensity events do not contribute any sediments to the channel in the Latxaga catchment (cf. Masselink et al., 2016). Sediment dynamics are dominated by sediment mobilisation during large (high intensity) events. Sediments are for a large part exported during those events, but large amount of sediments are deposited in and near the channel after these events. These sediments are gradually removed by small events. To better understand the delivery of sediments to the channel and how large and small events influence each other more field data on hillslope-channel connectivity and within-channel sediment dynamics is necessary. Reference: Masselink, R.J.H., Keesstra, S.D., Temme, A.J.A.M., Seeger, M., Giménez, R., Casalí, J., 2016. Modelling Discharge and Sediment Yield at Catchment Scale Using Connectivity Components. Land Degrad. Dev. 27, 933-945. doi:10.1002/ldr.2512

Events Management Education through CD-ROM Simulation at Victoria University of Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Marcia; And Others

There has been a rapid growth in the events industry in Victoria and Australia over the past five years with an increase in large scale events--resulting in substantive economic impact. The growth in events in Australia is projected to continue to beyond 2001. The Department of Management at Victoria University of Technology (VU) received a…

Evaluating 20th Century precipitation characteristics between multi-scale atmospheric models with different land-atmosphere coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, M.; Denning, A. S.; Randall, D. A.; Branson, M.

2016-12-01

Multi-scale models of the atmosphere provide an opportunity to investigate processes that are unresolved by traditional Global Climate Models while at the same time remaining viable in terms of computational resources for climate-length time scales. The MMF represents a shift away from large horizontal grid spacing in traditional GCMs that leads to overabundant light precipitation and lack of heavy events, toward a model where precipitation intensity is allowed to vary over a much wider range of values. Resolving atmospheric motions on the scale of 4 km makes it possible to recover features of precipitation, such as intense downpours, that were previously only obtained by computationally expensive regional simulations. These heavy precipitation events may have little impact on large-scale moisture and energy budgets, but are outstanding in terms of interaction with the land surface and potential impact on human life. Three versions of the Community Earth System Model were used in this study; the standard CESM, the multi-scale `Super-Parameterized' CESM where large-scale parameterizations have been replaced with a 2D cloud-permitting model, and a multi-instance land version of the SP-CESM where each column of the 2D CRM is allowed to interact with an individual land unit. These simulations were carried out using prescribed Sea Surface Temperatures for the period from 1979-2006 with daily precipitation saved for all 28 years. Comparisons of the statistical properties of precipitation between model architectures and against observations from rain gauges were made, with specific focus on detection and evaluation of extreme precipitation events.

Climate anomalies generate an exceptional dinoflagellate bloom in San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, J.E.; Schraga, T.S.; Lopez, C.B.; Knowles, N.; Grover, Labiosa R.; Dugdale, R.

2005-01-01

We describe a large dinoflagellate bloom, unprecedented in nearly three decades of observation, that developed in San Francisco Bay (SFB) during September 2004. SFB is highly enriched in nutrients but has low summer-autumn algal biomass because wind stress and tidally induced bottom stress produce a well mixed and light-limited pelagic habitat. The bloom coincided with calm winds and record high air temperatures that stratified the water column and suppressed mixing long enough for motile dinoflagellates to grow and accumulate in surface waters. This event-scale climate pattern, produced by an upper-atmosphere high-pressure anomaly off the U.S. west coast, followed a summer of weak coastal upwelling and high dinoflagellate biomass in coastal waters that apparently seeded the SFB bloom. This event suggests that some red tides are responses to changes in local physical dynamics that are driven by large-scale atmospheric processes and operate over both the event scale of biomass growth and the antecedent seasonal scale that shapes the bloom community. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Flow field topology of transient mixing driven by buoyancy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duval, Walter M B.

2004-01-01

Transient mixing driven by buoyancy occurs through the birth of a symmetric Rayleigh-Taylor morphology (RTM) structure for large length scales. Beyond its critical bifurcation the RTM structure exhibits self-similarity and occurs on smaller and smaller length scales. The dynamics of the RTM structure, its nonlinear growth and internal collision, show that its genesis occurs from an explosive bifurcation which leads to the overlap of resonance regions in phase space. This event shows the coexistence of regular and chaotic regions in phase space which is corroborated with the existence of horseshoe maps. A measure of local chaos given by the topological entropy indicates that as the system evolves there is growth of uncertainty. Breakdown of the dissipative RTM structure occurs during the transition from explosive to catastrophic bifurcation; this event gives rise to annihilation of the separatrices which drives overlap of resonance regions. The global bifurcation of explosive and catastrophic events in phase space for the large length scale of the RTM structure serves as a template for which mixing occurs on smaller and smaller length scales. Copyright 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Formulating a subgrid-scale breakup model for microbubble generation from interfacial collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Wai Hong Ronald; Mirjalili, Shahab; Urzay, Javier; Mani, Ali; Moin, Parviz

2017-11-01

Multiphase flows often involve impact events that engender important effects like the generation of a myriad of tiny bubbles that are subsequently transported in large liquid bodies. These impact events are created by large-scale phenomena like breaking waves on ocean surfaces, and often involve the relative approach of liquid surfaces. This relative motion generates continuously shrinking length scales as the entrapped gas layer thins and eventually breaks up into microbubbles. The treatment of this disparity in length scales is computationally challenging. In this presentation, a framework is presented that addresses a subgrid-scale (SGS) model aimed at capturing the process of microbubble generation. This work sets up the components in an overarching volume-of-fluid (VoF) toolset and investigates the analytical foundations of an SGS model for describing the breakup of a thin air film trapped between two approaching water bodies in a physical regime corresponding to Mesler entrainment. Constituents of the SGS model, such as the identification of impact events and the accurate computation of the local characteristic curvature in a VoF-based architecture, and the treatment of the air layer breakup, are discussed and illustrated in simplified scenarios. Supported by Office of Naval Research (ONR)/A*STAR (Singapore).

Time Variations in Forecasts and Occurrences of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahler, S. W.

2015-12-01

The onsets and development of large solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events have been characterized in many studies. The statistics of SEP event onset delay times from associated solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which depend on solar source longitudes, can be used to provide better predictions of whether a SEP event will occur following a large flare or fast CME. In addition, size distributions of peak SEP event intensities provide a means for a probabilistic forecast of peak intensities attained in observed SEP increases. SEP event peak intensities have been compared with their rise and decay times for insight into the acceleration and transport processes. These two time scales are generally treated as independent parameters describing the development of a SEP event, but we can invoke an alternative two-parameter description based on the assumption that decay times exceed rise times for all events. These two parameters, from the well known Weibull distribution, provide an event description in terms of its basic shape and duration. We apply this distribution to several large SEP events and ask what the characteristic parameters and their dependence on source longitudes can tell us about the origins of these important events.

Concurrent Schedules of Positive and Negative Reinforcement: Differential-Impact and Differential-Outcomes Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magoon, Michael A.; Critchfield, Thomas S.

2008-01-01

Considerable evidence from outside of operant psychology suggests that aversive events exert greater influence over behavior than equal-sized positive-reinforcement events. Operant theory is largely moot on this point, and most operant research is uninformative because of a scaling problem that prevents aversive events and those based on positive…

Warm-season severe wind events in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatzen, Christoph

2013-04-01

A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.

Controls on carbon consumption during Alaskan wildland fires

Treesearch

Eric S. Kasischke; Elizabeth E. Hoy

2012-01-01

A method was developed to estimate carbon consumed during wildland fires in interior Alaska based on medium-spatial scale data (60 m cell size) generated on a daily basis. Carbon consumption estimates were developed for 41 fire events in the large fire year of 2004 and 34 fire events from the small fire years of 2006-2008. Total carbon consumed during the large fire...

Statistical analysis of Hasegawa-Wakatani turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Johan; Hnat, Bogdan

2017-06-01

Resistive drift wave turbulence is a multipurpose paradigm that can be used to understand transport at the edge of fusion devices. The Hasegawa-Wakatani model captures the essential physics of drift turbulence while retaining the simplicity needed to gain a qualitative understanding of this process. We provide a theoretical interpretation of numerically generated probability density functions (PDFs) of intermittent events in Hasegawa-Wakatani turbulence with enforced equipartition of energy in large scale zonal flows, and small scale drift turbulence. We find that for a wide range of adiabatic index values, the stochastic component representing the small scale turbulent eddies of the flow, obtained from the autoregressive integrated moving average model, exhibits super-diffusive statistics, consistent with intermittent transport. The PDFs of large events (above one standard deviation) are well approximated by the Laplace distribution, while small events often exhibit a Gaussian character. Furthermore, there exists a strong influence of zonal flows, for example, via shearing and then viscous dissipation maintaining a sub-diffusive character of the fluxes.

Numerical investigations with WRF about atmospheric features leading to heavy precipitation and flood events over the Central Andes' complex topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamuriano, Marcelo; Brönnimann, Stefan

2017-04-01

It's known that some extremes such as heavy rainfalls, flood events, heatwaves and droughts depend largely on the atmospheric circulation and local features. Bolivia is no exception and while the large scale dynamics over the Amazon has been largely investigated, the local features driven by the Andes Cordillera and the Altiplano is still poorly documented. New insights on the regional atmospheric dynamics preceding heavy precipitation and flood events over the complex topography of the Andes-Amazon interface are added through numerical investigations of several case events: flash flood episodes over La Paz city and the extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin. Large scale atmospheric water transport is dynamically downscaled in order to take into account the complex topography forcing and local features as modulators of these events. For this purpose, a series of high resolution numerical experiments with the WRF-ARW model is conducted using various global datasets and parameterizations. While several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the dynamics of these episodes, they have not been tested yet through numerical modelling experiments. The simulations captures realistically the local water transport and the terrain influence over atmospheric circulation, even though the precipitation intensity is in general unrealistic. Nevertheless, the results show that Dynamical Downscaling over the tropical Andes' complex terrain provides useful meteorological data for a variety of studies and contributes to a better understanding of physical processes involved in the configuration of these events.

The influence of Seychelles Dome on the large scale Tropical Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; Selten, Frank; Hazeleger, Wilco

2013-04-01

The Seychelles Dome (SD) is the thermocline ridge just South of the equator in the Western Indian Ocean basin. It is characterized by strong atmospheric convection and a shallow thermocline and is associated with large intraseasonal convection and SST variability (Harrison and Vecchi 2001). The SD is influenced by surface and subsurface processes, such as air-sea fluxes, Ekman upwelling from wind stress curl, ocean dynamics (vertical mixing) and oceanic Rossby waves from southeastern Indian Ocean. The favoring season for a strong SD is the boreal winter, where the thermocline is most shallow. Then the southeasterly trade winds converge with the northwesterly monsoonal winds over the intertropical convergence zone and cause cyclonic wind stress curl that drives Ekman divergence and a ridging of the thermocline. It is found that the subseasonal and interranual variability of the SD is influenced by large scale events, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (Tozuka et al., 2010, Lloyd and Vecchi, 2010). The SD is enhanced by cooling events in the Western Indian Ocean and easterly winds that raise the thermocline and increase the upwelling. This can be associated with a strong Walker circulation, like negative IOD conditions or La Nina-like conditions. So far the studies focus on the origins of the SD variability, but the influence of the SD itself on regional or large scale climate is largely unknown. In this study we focus on the influence of the SD variations on the large scale tropical circulation. We analyze the covariance of the SD variations and the tropical circulation in a 200 year control imulation of the climate model EC-EARTH and perform idealized SST forced simulations to study the character of the atmospheric response and its relation to ENSO, IOD and MJO. References -Harrison, D. E. and G. A. Vecchi, 2001: January 1999 Indian Ocean cooling event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3717-3720. -Lloyd, I. D., and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Submonthly Indian Ocean cooling events and their interaction with large-scale conditions. J. Climate, 23, 700-716. -Tozuka, T., T. Yokoi, and T. Yamagata, 2010: A modeling study of interannual variations of the Seychelles Dome. J. Geophys. Res., 115, C04005, doi:10.1029/2009JC005547.

Observational evidence of predawn plasma bubble and its irregularity scales in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watthanasangmechai, K.; Tsunoda, R. T.; Yokoyama, T.; Ishii, M.; Tsugawa, T.

2016-12-01

This paper describes an event of deep plasma depletion simultaneously detected with GPS, GNU Radio Beacon Receiver (GRBR) and in situ satellite measurement from DMFPF15. The event is on March 7, 2012 at 4:30 LT with geomagnetic quiet condition. Such a sharp depletion at plasma bubble wall detected at predawn is interesting but apparently rare event. Only one event is found from all dataset in March 2012. The inside structure of the predawn plasma bubble was clearly captured by DMSPF15 and the ground-based GRBR. The envelop structure seen from the precessed GPS-TEC appeares as a cluster. The observed cluster is concluded as the structure at the westwall of an upwelling of the large-scale wave structure, that accompanies the fifty- and thousand-km scales. This event is consistent with the plasma bubble structure simulated from the high-resolution bubble (HIRB) model.

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

Scaling relationships between bed load volumes, transport distances, and stream power in steep mountain channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Johannes M.; Turowski, Jens M.; Rickenmann, Dieter; Hegglin, Ramon; Arrigo, Sabrina; Mao, Luca; Kirchner, James W.

2014-03-01

Bed load transport during storm events is both an agent of geomorphic change and a significant natural hazard in mountain regions. Thus, predicting bed load transport is a central challenge in fluvial geomorphology and natural hazard risk assessment. Bed load transport during storm events depends on the width and depth of bed scour, as well as the transport distances of individual sediment grains. We traced individual gravels in two steep mountain streams, the Erlenbach (Switzerland) and Rio Cordon (Italy), using magnetic and radio frequency identification tags, and measured their bed load transport rates using calibrated geophone bed load sensors in the Erlenbach and a bed load trap in the Rio Cordon. Tracer transport distances and bed load volumes exhibited approximate power law scaling with both the peak stream power and the cumulative stream energy of individual hydrologic events. Bed load volumes scaled much more steeply with peak stream power and cumulative stream energy than tracer transport distances did, and bed load volumes scaled as roughly the third power of transport distances. These observations imply that large bed load transport events become large primarily by scouring the bed deeper and wider, and only secondarily by transporting the mobilized sediment farther. Using the sediment continuity equation, we can estimate the mean effective thickness of the actively transported layer, averaged over the entire channel width and the duration of individual flow events. This active layer thickness also followed approximate power law scaling with peak stream power and cumulative stream energy and ranged up to 0.57 m in the Erlenbach, broadly consistent with independent measurements.

Scalable Joint Models for Reliable Uncertainty-Aware Event Prediction.

PubMed

Soleimani, Hossein; Hensman, James; Saria, Suchi

2017-08-21

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty due to missingness. Alternatively, state-of-the-art joint modeling techniques can be used for jointly modeling the longitudinal and event data and compute event probabilities conditioned on the longitudinal observations. These approaches, however, make strong parametric assumptions and do not easily scale to multivariate signals with many observations. Our proposed approach consists of several key innovations. First, we develop a flexible and scalable joint model based upon sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes. Unlike state-of-the-art joint models, the proposed model can explain highly challenging structure including non-Gaussian noise while scaling to large data. Second, we derive an optimal policy for predicting events using the distribution of the event occurrence estimated by the joint model. The derived policy trades-off the cost of a delayed detection versus incorrect assessments and abstains from making decisions when the estimated event probability does not satisfy the derived confidence criteria. Experiments on a large dataset show that the proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.

Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2016-03-01

Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

Comparing Shock geometry from MHD simulation to that from the Q/A-scaling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G.; Zhao, L.; Jin, M.

2017-12-01

In large SEP events, ions can be accelerated at CME-driven shocks to very high energies. Spectra of heavy ions in many large SEP events show features such as roll-overs or spectral breaks. In some events when the spectra are plotted in energy/nucleon they can be shifted relatively to each other so that the spectra align. The amount of shift is charge-to-mass ratio (Q/A) dependent and varies from event to event. In the work of Li et al. (2009), the Q/A dependences of the scaling is related to shock geometry when the CME-driven shock is close to the Sun. For events where multiple in-situ spacecraft observations exist, one may expect that different spacecraft are connected to different portions of the CME-driven shock that have different shock geometries, therefore yielding different Q/A dependence. At the same time, shock geometry can be also obtained from MHD simulations. This means we can compare shock geometry from two completely different approaches: one from MHD simulation and the other from in-situ spectral fitting. In this work, we examine this comparison for selected events.

Secure access control and large scale robust representation for online multimedia event detection.

PubMed

Liu, Changyu; Lu, Bin; Li, Huiling

2014-01-01

We developed an online multimedia event detection (MED) system. However, there are a secure access control issue and a large scale robust representation issue when we want to integrate traditional event detection algorithms into the online environment. For the first issue, we proposed a tree proxy-based and service-oriented access control (TPSAC) model based on the traditional role based access control model. Verification experiments were conducted on the CloudSim simulation platform, and the results showed that the TPSAC model is suitable for the access control of dynamic online environments. For the second issue, inspired by the object-bank scene descriptor, we proposed a 1000-object-bank (1000OBK) event descriptor. Feature vectors of the 1000OBK were extracted from response pyramids of 1000 generic object detectors which were trained on standard annotated image datasets, such as the ImageNet dataset. A spatial bag of words tiling approach was then adopted to encode these feature vectors for bridging the gap between the objects and events. Furthermore, we performed experiments in the context of event classification on the challenging TRECVID MED 2012 dataset, and the results showed that the robust 1000OBK event descriptor outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches.

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

DOE PAGES

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; ...

2015-05-22

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.« less

Constraining relationships between rainfall and landsliding with satellite derived rainfall measurements and landslide inventories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, Odin; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Stumpf, Andre; Gosset, Marielle

2017-04-01

In mountainous and hilly regions, landslides are an important source of damage and fatalities. Landsliding correlates with extreme rainfall events and may increase with climate change. Still, how precipitation drives landsliding at regional scales is poorly understood quantitatively in part because constraining simultaneously landsliding and rainfall across large areas is challenging. By combining optical images acquired from satellite observation platforms and rainfall measurements from satellite constellations we are building a database of landslide events caused by with single storm events. We present results from storm-induced landslides from Brazil, Taiwan, Micronesia, Central America, Europe and the USA. We present scaling laws between rainfall metrics derived by satellites (total rainfall, mean intensity, antecedent rainfall, ...) and statistical descriptors of landslide events (total area and volume, size distribution, mean runout, ...). Total rainfall seems to be the most important parameter driving non-linearly the increase in total landslide number, and area and volume. The maximum size of bedrock landslides correlates with the total number of landslides, and thus with total rainfall, within the limits of available topographic relief. In contrast, the power-law scaling exponent of the size distribution, controlling the relative abundance of small and large landslides, appears rather independent of the rainfall metrics (intensity, duration and total rainfall). These scaling laws seem to explain both the intra-storm pattern of landsliding, at the scale of satellite rainfall measurements ( 25kmx25km), and the different impacts observed for various storms. Where possible, we evaluate the limits of standard rainfall products (TRMM, GPM, GSMaP) by comparing them to in-situ data. Then we discuss how slope distribution and other geomorphic factors (lithology, soil presence,...) modulate these scaling laws. Such scaling laws at the basin scale and based only on a-priori information (topography, lithology, …) and rainfall metrics available from meteorological forecast may allow to better anticipate and mitigates landsliding associated with extreme rainfall events.

Recollection-Dependent Memory for Event Duration in Large-Scale Spatial Navigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brunec, Iva K.; Ozubko, Jason D.; Barense, Morgan D.; Moscovitch, Morris

2017-01-01

Time and space represent two key aspects of episodic memories, forming the spatiotemporal context of events in a sequence. Little is known, however, about how temporal information, such as the duration and the order of particular events, are encoded into memory, and if it matters whether the memory representation is based on recollection or…

Large-Angular-Scale Clustering as a Clue to the Source of UHECRs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlind, Andreas A.; Farrar, Glennys R.

We explore what can be learned about the sources of UHECRs from their large-angular-scale clustering (referred to as their "bias" by the cosmology community). Exploiting the clustering on large scales has the advantage over small-scale correlations of being insensitive to uncertainties in source direction from magnetic smearing or measurement error. In a Cold Dark Matter cosmology, the amplitude of large-scale clustering depends on the mass of the system, with more massive systems such as galaxy clusters clustering more strongly than less massive systems such as ordinary galaxies or AGN. Therefore, studying the large-scale clustering of UHECRs can help determine a mass scale for their sources, given the assumption that their redshift depth is as expected from the GZK cutoff. We investigate the constraining power of a given UHECR sample as a function of its cutoff energy and number of events. We show that current and future samples should be able to distinguish between the cases of their sources being galaxy clusters, ordinary galaxies, or sources that are uncorrelated with the large-scale structure of the universe.

Large Scale Meteorological Pattern of Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuswanto, Heri; Grotjahn, Richard; Rachmi, Arinda; Suhermi, Novri; Oktania, Erma; Wijaya, Yosep

2014-05-01

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) cause negative impacts socially, economically, and environmentally. Considering these facts, forecasting EWEs is crucial work. Indonesia has been identified as being among the countries most vulnerable to the risk of natural disasters, such as floods, heat waves, and droughts. Current forecasting of extreme events in Indonesia is carried out by interpreting synoptic maps for several fields without taking into account the link between the observed events in the 'target' area with remote conditions. This situation may cause misidentification of the event leading to an inaccurate prediction. Grotjahn and Faure (2008) compute composite maps from extreme events (including heat waves and intense rainfall) to help forecasters identify such events in model output. The composite maps show large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) that occurred during historical EWEs. Some vital information about the EWEs can be acquired from studying such maps, in addition to providing forecaster guidance. Such maps have robust mid-latitude meteorological patterns (for Sacramento and California Central Valley, USA EWEs). We study the performance of the composite approach for tropical weather condition such as Indonesia. Initially, the composite maps are developed to identify and forecast the extreme weather events in Indramayu district- West Java, the main producer of rice in Indonesia and contributes to about 60% of the national total rice production. Studying extreme weather events happening in Indramayu is important since EWEs there affect national agricultural and fisheries activities. During a recent EWE more than a thousand houses in Indramayu suffered from serious flooding with each home more than one meter underwater. The flood also destroyed a thousand hectares of rice plantings in 5 regencies. Identifying the dates of extreme events is one of the most important steps and has to be carried out carefully. An approach has been applied to identify the dates involving observations from multiple sites (rain gauges). The approach combines the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) with 'declustering' of the data to approximate independence based on the autocorrelation structure of each rainfall series. The cross correlation among sites is considered also to develop the event's criteria yielding a rational choice of the extreme dates given the 'spotty' nature of the intense convection. Based on the identified dates, we are developing a supporting tool for forecasting extreme rainfall based on the corresponding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The LSMPs methodology focuses on the larger-scale patterns that the model are better able to forecast, as those larger-scale patterns create the conditions fostering the local EWE. Bootstrap resampling method is applied to highlight the key features that statistically significant with the extreme events. Grotjahn, R., and G. Faure. 2008: Composite Predictor Maps of Extraordinary Weather Events in the Sacramento California Region. Weather and Forecasting. 23: 313-335.

Large-Scale Gene Relocations following an Ancient Genome Triplication Associated with the Diversification of Core Eudicots.

PubMed

Wang, Yupeng; Ficklin, Stephen P; Wang, Xiyin; Feltus, F Alex; Paterson, Andrew H

2016-01-01

Different modes of gene duplication including whole-genome duplication (WGD), and tandem, proximal and dispersed duplications are widespread in angiosperm genomes. Small-scale, stochastic gene relocations and transposed gene duplications are widely accepted to be the primary mechanisms for the creation of dispersed duplicates. However, here we show that most surviving ancient dispersed duplicates in core eudicots originated from large-scale gene relocations within a narrow window of time following a genome triplication (γ) event that occurred in the stem lineage of core eudicots. We name these surviving ancient dispersed duplicates as relocated γ duplicates. In Arabidopsis thaliana, relocated γ, WGD and single-gene duplicates have distinct features with regard to gene functions, essentiality, and protein interactions. Relative to γ duplicates, relocated γ duplicates have higher non-synonymous substitution rates, but comparable levels of expression and regulation divergence. Thus, relocated γ duplicates should be distinguished from WGD and single-gene duplicates for evolutionary investigations. Our results suggest large-scale gene relocations following the γ event were associated with the diversification of core eudicots.

Large-Scale Gene Relocations following an Ancient Genome Triplication Associated with the Diversification of Core Eudicots

PubMed Central

Wang, Yupeng; Ficklin, Stephen P.; Wang, Xiyin; Feltus, F. Alex; Paterson, Andrew H.

2016-01-01

Different modes of gene duplication including whole-genome duplication (WGD), and tandem, proximal and dispersed duplications are widespread in angiosperm genomes. Small-scale, stochastic gene relocations and transposed gene duplications are widely accepted to be the primary mechanisms for the creation of dispersed duplicates. However, here we show that most surviving ancient dispersed duplicates in core eudicots originated from large-scale gene relocations within a narrow window of time following a genome triplication (γ) event that occurred in the stem lineage of core eudicots. We name these surviving ancient dispersed duplicates as relocated γ duplicates. In Arabidopsis thaliana, relocated γ, WGD and single-gene duplicates have distinct features with regard to gene functions, essentiality, and protein interactions. Relative to γ duplicates, relocated γ duplicates have higher non-synonymous substitution rates, but comparable levels of expression and regulation divergence. Thus, relocated γ duplicates should be distinguished from WGD and single-gene duplicates for evolutionary investigations. Our results suggest large-scale gene relocations following the γ event were associated with the diversification of core eudicots. PMID:27195960

Scaling differences between large interplate and intraplate earthquakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholz, C. H.; Aviles, C. A.; Wesnousky, S. G.

1985-01-01

A study of large intraplate earthquakes with well determined source parameters shows that these earthquakes obey a scaling law similar to large interplate earthquakes, in which M sub o varies as L sup 2 or u = alpha L where L is rupture length and u is slip. In contrast to interplate earthquakes, for which alpha approximately equals 1 x .00001, for the intraplate events alpha approximately equals 6 x .0001, which implies that these earthquakes have stress-drops about 6 times higher than interplate events. This result is independent of focal mechanism type. This implies that intraplate faults have a higher frictional strength than plate boundaries, and hence, that faults are velocity or slip weakening in their behavior. This factor may be important in producing the concentrated deformation that creates and maintains plate boundaries.

Population-wide mortality in multiple forest types in western North America: onset, extent, and severity of impacts as indicators of climatic influence

Treesearch

J. D. Shaw; J. N. Long; M. T. Thompson; R. J. DeRose

2010-01-01

A complex of drought, insects, and disease is causing widespread mortality in multiple forest types across western North America. These forest types range from dry Pinus-Juniperus woodlands to moist, montane Picea-Abies forests. Although large-scale mortality events are known from the past and considered part of natural cycles, recent events have largely been...

Modeling veterans healthcare administration disclosure processes :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beyeler, Walter E; DeMenno, Mercy B.; Finley, Patrick D.

As with other large healthcare organizations, medical adverse events at the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) facilities can expose patients to unforeseen negative risks. VHA leadership recognizes that properly handled disclosure of adverse events can minimize potential harm to patients and negative consequences for the effective functioning of the organization. The work documented here seeks to help improve the disclosure process by situating it within the broader theoretical framework of issues management, and to identify opportunities for process improvement through modeling disclosure and reactions to disclosure. The computational model will allow a variety of disclosure actions to be tested acrossmore » a range of incident scenarios. Our conceptual model will be refined in collaboration with domain experts, especially by continuing to draw on insights from VA Study of the Communication of Adverse Large-Scale Events (SCALE) project researchers.« less

Large-Scale Test of Dynamic Correlation Processors: Implications for Correlation-Based Seismic Pipelines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dodge, D. A.; Harris, D. B.

Correlation detectors are of considerable interest to the seismic monitoring communities because they offer reduced detection thresholds and combine detection, location and identification functions into a single operation. They appear to be ideal for applications requiring screening of frequent repeating events. However, questions remain about how broadly empirical correlation methods are applicable. We describe the effectiveness of banks of correlation detectors in a system that combines traditional power detectors with correlation detectors in terms of efficiency, which we define to be the fraction of events detected by the correlators. This paper elaborates and extends the concept of a dynamic correlationmore » detection framework – a system which autonomously creates correlation detectors from event waveforms detected by power detectors; and reports observed performance on a network of arrays in terms of efficiency. We performed a large scale test of dynamic correlation processors on an 11 terabyte global dataset using 25 arrays in the single frequency band 1-3 Hz. The system found over 3.2 million unique signals and produced 459,747 screened detections. A very satisfying result is that, on average, efficiency grows with time and, after nearly 16 years of operation, exceeds 47% for events observed over all distance ranges and approaches 70% for near regional and 90% for local events. This observation suggests that future pipeline architectures should make extensive use of correlation detectors, principally for decluttering observations of local and near-regional events. Our results also suggest that future operations based on correlation detection will require commodity large-scale computing infrastructure, since the numbers of correlators in an autonomous system can grow into the hundreds of thousands.« less

Large-Scale Test of Dynamic Correlation Processors: Implications for Correlation-Based Seismic Pipelines

DOE PAGES

Dodge, D. A.; Harris, D. B.

2016-03-15

Correlation detectors are of considerable interest to the seismic monitoring communities because they offer reduced detection thresholds and combine detection, location and identification functions into a single operation. They appear to be ideal for applications requiring screening of frequent repeating events. However, questions remain about how broadly empirical correlation methods are applicable. We describe the effectiveness of banks of correlation detectors in a system that combines traditional power detectors with correlation detectors in terms of efficiency, which we define to be the fraction of events detected by the correlators. This paper elaborates and extends the concept of a dynamic correlationmore » detection framework – a system which autonomously creates correlation detectors from event waveforms detected by power detectors; and reports observed performance on a network of arrays in terms of efficiency. We performed a large scale test of dynamic correlation processors on an 11 terabyte global dataset using 25 arrays in the single frequency band 1-3 Hz. The system found over 3.2 million unique signals and produced 459,747 screened detections. A very satisfying result is that, on average, efficiency grows with time and, after nearly 16 years of operation, exceeds 47% for events observed over all distance ranges and approaches 70% for near regional and 90% for local events. This observation suggests that future pipeline architectures should make extensive use of correlation detectors, principally for decluttering observations of local and near-regional events. Our results also suggest that future operations based on correlation detection will require commodity large-scale computing infrastructure, since the numbers of correlators in an autonomous system can grow into the hundreds of thousands.« less

Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.

2009-04-01

Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change signal.

Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donovan, K.

2014-12-01

When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

Large-scale weather dynamics during the 2015 haze event in Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djamil, Yudha; Lee, Wen-Chien; Tien Dat, Pham; Kuwata, Mikinori

2017-04-01

The 2015 haze event in South East Asia is widely considered as a period of the worst air quality in the region in more than a decade. The source of the haze was from forest and peatland fire in Sumatra and Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia. The fires were mostly came from the practice of forest clearance known as slash and burn, to be converted to palm oil plantation. Such practice of clearance although occurs seasonally but at 2015 it became worst by the impact of strong El Nino. The long period of dryer atmosphere over the region due to El Nino makes the fire easier to ignite, spread and difficult to stop. The biomass emission from the forest and peatland fire caused large-scale haze pollution problem in both Islands and further spread into the neighboring countries such as Singapore and Malaysia. In Singapore, for about two months (September-October, 2015) the air quality was in the unhealthy level. Such unfortunate condition caused some socioeconomic losses such as school closure, cancellation of outdoor events, health issues and many more with total losses estimated as S700 million. The unhealthy level of Singapore's air quality is based on the increasing pollutant standard index (PSI>120) due to the haze arrival, it even reached a hazardous level (PSI= 300) for several days. PSI is a metric of air quality in Singapore that aggregate six pollutants (SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NO2, CO and O3). In this study, we focused on PSI variability in weekly-biweekly time scales (periodicity < 30 days) since it is the least understood compare to their diurnal and seasonal scales. We have identified three dominant time scales of PSI ( 5, 10 and 20 days) using Wavelet method and investigated their large-scale atmospheric structures. The PSI associated large-scale column moisture horizontal structures over the Indo-Pacific basin are dominated by easterly propagating gyres in synoptic (macro) scale for the 5 days ( 10 and 20 days) time scales. The propagating gyres manifest as cyclical column moisture flux trajectory around Singapore region. Some of its phases are identified to be responsible in transporting the haze from its source to Singapore. The haze source was identified by compositing number of hotspots in grid-space based on the three time scales of PSI. Further discussion about equatorial waves during the haze event will also be presented.

Developing a Framework for Seamless Prediction of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosendahl, D. H.; Ćwik, P.; Martin, E. R.; Basara, J. B.; Brooks, H. E.; Furtado, J. C.; Homeyer, C. R.; Lazrus, H.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Mullens, E.; Richman, M. B.; Robinson-Cook, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events cause significant damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, and agriculture, as well as many injures and fatalities as a result of fast-moving water or waterborne diseases. In the USA, these natural hazard events claimed the lives of more than 300 people during 2015 - 2016 alone, with total damage reaching $24.4 billion. Prior studies of extreme precipitation events have focused on the sub-daily to sub-weekly timeframes. However, many decisions for planning, preparing and resilience-building require sub-seasonal to seasonal timeframes (S2S; 14 to 90 days), but adequate forecasting tools for prediction do not exist. Therefore, the goal of this newly funded project is an enhancement in understanding of the large-scale forcing and dynamics of S2S extreme precipitation events in the United States, and improved capability for modeling and predicting such events. Here, we describe the project goals, objectives, and research activities that will take place over the next 5 years. In this project, a unique team of scientists and stakeholders will identify and understand weather and climate processes connected with the prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events by answering these research questions: 1) What are the synoptic patterns associated with, and characteristic of, S2S extreme precipitation evens in the contiguous U.S.? 2) What role, if any, do large-scale modes of climate variability play in modulating these events? 3) How predictable are S2S extreme precipitation events across temporal scales? 4) How do we create an informative prediction of S2S extreme precipitation events for policymaking and planing? This project will use observational data, high-resolution radar composites, dynamical climate models and workshops that engage stakeholders (water resource managers, emergency managers and tribal environmental professionals) in co-production of knowledge. The overarching result of this project will be predictive models to reduce of the societal and economic impacts of extreme precipitation events. Another outcome will include statistical and co-production frameworks, which could be applied across other meteorological extremes, all time scales and in other parts of the world to increase resilience to extreme meteorological events.

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

Seismic Parameters of Mining-Induced Aftershock Sequences for Re-entry Protocol Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallejos, Javier A.; Estay, Rodrigo A.

2018-03-01

A common characteristic of deep mines in hard rock is induced seismicity. This results from stress changes and rock failure around mining excavations. Following large seismic events, there is an increase in the levels of seismicity, which gradually decay with time. Restricting access to areas of a mine for enough time to allow this decay of seismic events is the main approach in re-entry strategies. The statistical properties of aftershock sequences can be studied with three scaling relations: (1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency magnitude, (2) the modified Omori's law (MOL) for the temporal decay, and (3) Båth's law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock. In this paper, these three scaling relations, in addition to the stochastic Reasenberg-Jones model are applied to study the characteristic parameters of 11 large magnitude mining-induced aftershock sequences in four mines in Ontario, Canada. To provide guidelines for re-entry protocol development, the dependence of the scaling relation parameters on the magnitude of the main event are studied. Some relations between the parameters and the magnitude of the main event are found. Using these relationships and the scaling relations, a space-time-magnitude re-entry protocol is developed. These findings provide a first approximation to concise and well-justified guidelines for re-entry protocol development applicable to the range of mining conditions found in Ontario, Canada.

A comparison of large 18th-century floods on Danube: Vienna - Bratislava - Budapest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj

2013-04-01

The documentation of historic floods can help in better understanding of factors that might cause and contribute to large and extreme flood events. In particular, the analysis of historic floods provides information about flood seasonality, its changes and anthropogenic impacts on river flood regime which in some cases strongly influenced flood behaviour. The main objective of the present contribution is to document large and medium size flood events on Danube in Vienna, Bratislava and Budapest in the 18th century. In the present study, based on contemporary documentary evidence, for each of the three towns a five-scaled flood index series is developed to describe the magnitude and intensity of flood events. According to this classification, the 100-year flood event was characterised by the index value 5, while great destructive floods - depending on their extension, destructivity and further impacts - received the values 4 and 3, respectively. Less significant but still harmful flood events were classified as No. 2, and floods without further specification remained in the lowest category (No. 1). Beside classification issues, seasonality and flood frequency differences between the three towns are as well discussed. The results indicate that a greater number of flood events took place in the last decades of the century, but only a few flood events of the same magnitude are documented simultaneously in all three towns. And whereas in 1775 no winter flood event was reported in Vienna, an important ice jam flood was documented in Bratislava, and a catastrophic ice jam flood event, greatest of the century, occurred in Budapest. In 1787 autumn the greatest flood event of the century occurred in Vienna, while hardly any flood waves were observed at Budapest. While in Vienna, summer (and partly autumn) floods had great importance, in Budapest a large number of ice jam floods were documented. In some cases the differences are likely caused by different hydrometeorological and morphological conditions, but the importance of human impact (e.g. different types and levels of flood protection in the towns, large-scale changes of land use in the catchment area) have to be as well emphasised.

Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelly, David R.

2010-01-01

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

Development of geopolitically relevant ranking criteria for geoengineering methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, Philip W.

2016-11-01

A decade has passed since Paul Crutzen published his editorial essay on the potential for stratospheric geoengineering to cool the climate in the Anthropocene. He synthesized the effects of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption on the planet's radiative budget and used this large-scale event to broaden and deepen the debate on the challenges and opportunities of large-scale geoengineering. Pinatubo had pronounced effects, both in the short and longer term (months to years), on the ocean, land, and the atmosphere. This rich set of data on how a large-scale natural event influences many regional and global facets of the Earth System provides a comprehensive viewpoint to assess the wider ramifications of geoengineering. Here, I use the Pinatubo archives to develop a range of geopolitically relevant ranking criteria for a suite of different geoengineering approaches. The criteria focus on the spatial scales needed for geoengineering and whether large-scale dispersal is a necessary requirement for a technique to deliver significant cooling or carbon dioxide reductions. These categories in turn inform whether geoengineering approaches are amenable to participation (the "democracy of geoengineering") and whether they will lead to transboundary issues that could precipitate geopolitical conflicts. The criteria provide the requisite detail to demarcate different geoengineering approaches in the context of geopolitics. Hence, they offer another tool that can be used in the development of a more holistic approach to the debate on geoengineering.

Release of Mercury Mine Tailings from Mine Impacted Watersheds by Extreme Events Resulting from Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rytuba, J. J.

2015-12-01

An increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events resulting from climate change is expected to result in extreme precipitation events on both regional and local scales. Extreme precipitation events have the potential to mobilize large volumes of mercury (Hg) mine tailings in watersheds where tailings reside in the floodplain downstream from historic Hg mines. The California Hg mineral belt produced one third of the worlds Hg from over 100 mines from the 1850's to 1972. In the absence of environmental regulations, tailings were disposed of into streams adjacent to the mines in order to have them transported from the mine site during storm events. Thus most of the tailings no longer reside at the mine site. Addition of tailings to the streams resulted in stream aggradation, increased over-bank flow, and deposition of tailings in the floodplain for up to 25 kms downstream from the mines. After cessation of mining, the decrease in tailings entering the streams resulted in degradation, incision of the streams into the floodplain, and inability of the streams to access the floodplain. Thus Hg tailings have remained stored in the floodplain since cessation of mining. Hg phases in these tailings consist of cinnabar, metacinnabar and montroydite based on EXAFS analysis. Size analysis indicates that Hg phases are fine grained, less than 1 um. The last regional scale extreme precipitation events to effect the entire area of the California Hg mineral belt were the ARkStorm events of 1861-1862 that occurred prior to large scale Hg mining. Extreme regional ARkStorm precipitation events as well as local summer storms, such as the July 2006 flood in the Clear Creek Hg mining district, are expected to increase in frequency and have the potential to remobilize the large volume of tailings stored in floodplain deposits. Although Hg mine remediation has decreased Hg release from mine sites in a period of benign climate, no remediation efforts have addressed the large source of Hg residing in floodplain deposits. This Hg source in a period of climate change poses a significant environmental risk to aquatic systems downstream from Hg mine-impacted watersheds. An extreme ARkStorm event is estimated to potentially remobilize an amount of Hg equivalent to that released in the past during the peak period of unregulated Hg mining in California.

Temporal Clustering of Regional-Scale Extreme Precipitation Events in Southern Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, Yannick; Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Von Waldow, Harald; Chevalier, Clément; Pfhal, Stephan; Martius, Olivia

2017-04-01

Temporal clustering of extreme precipitation events on subseasonal time scales is a form of compound extremes and is of crucial importance for the formation of large-scale flood events. Here, the temporal clustering of regional-scale extreme precipitation events in southern Switzerland is studied. These precipitation events are relevant for the flooding of lakes in southern Switzerland and northern Italy. This research determines whether temporal clustering is present and then identifies the dynamics that are responsible for the clustering. An observation-based gridded precipitation dataset of Swiss daily rainfall sums and ECMWF reanalysis datasets are used. To analyze the clustering in the precipitation time series a modified version of Ripley's K function is used. It determines the average number of extreme events in a time period, to characterize temporal clustering on subseasonal time scales and to determine the statistical significance of the clustering. Significant clustering of regional-scale precipitation extremes is found on subseasonal time scales during the fall season. Four high-impact clustering episodes are then selected and the dynamics responsible for the clustering are examined. During the four clustering episodes, all heavy precipitation events were associated with an upperlevel breaking Rossby wave over western Europe and in most cases strong diabatic processes upstream over the Atlantic played a role in the amplification of these breaking waves. Atmospheric blocking downstream over eastern Europe supported this wave breaking during two of the clustering episodes. During one of the clustering periods, several extratropical transitions of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contributed to the formation of high-amplitude ridges over the Atlantic basin and downstream wave breaking. During another event, blocking over Alaska assisted the phase locking of the Rossby waves downstream over the Atlantic.

Catastrophic flooding origin of shelf valley systems in the English Channel.

PubMed

Gupta, Sanjeev; Collier, Jenny S; Palmer-Felgate, Andy; Potter, Graeme

2007-07-19

Megaflood events involving sudden discharges of exceptionally large volumes of water are rare, but can significantly affect landscape evolution, continental-scale drainage patterns and climate change. It has been proposed that a significant flood event eroded a network of large ancient valleys on the floor of the English Channel-the narrow seaway between England and France. This hypothesis has remained untested through lack of direct evidence, and alternative non-catastrophist ideas have been entertained for valley formation. Here we analyse a new regional bathymetric map of part of the English Channel derived from high-resolution sonar data, which shows the morphology of the valley in unprecedented detail. We observe a large bedrock-floored valley that contains a distinct assemblage of landforms, including streamlined islands and longitudinal erosional grooves, which are indicative of large-scale subaerial erosion by high-magnitude water discharges. Our observations support the megaflood model, in which breaching of a rock dam at the Dover Strait instigated catastrophic drainage of a large pro-glacial lake in the southern North Sea basin. We suggest that megaflooding provides an explanation for the permanent isolation of Britain from mainland Europe during interglacial high-sea-level stands, and consequently for patterns of early human colonisation of Britain together with the large-scale reorganization of palaeodrainage in northwest Europe.

Modeling the MJO rain rates using parameterized large scale dynamics: vertical structure, radiation, and horizontal advection of dry air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Sobel, A. H.; Nie, J.

2015-12-01

Two Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events were observed during October and November 2011 in the equatorial Indian Ocean during the DYNAMO field campaign. Precipitation rates and large-scale vertical motion profiles derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array are simulated in a small-domain cloud-resolving model using parameterized large-scale dynamics. Three parameterizations of large-scale dynamics --- the conventional weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation, vertical mode based spectral WTG (SWTG), and damped gravity wave coupling (DGW) --- are employed. The target temperature profiles and radiative heating rates are taken from a control simulation in which the large-scale vertical motion is imposed (rather than directly from observations), and the model itself is significantly modified from that used in previous work. These methodological changes lead to significant improvement in the results.Simulations using all three methods, with imposed time -dependent radiation and horizontal moisture advection, capture the time variations in precipitation associated with the two MJO events well. The three methods produce significant differences in the large-scale vertical motion profile, however. WTG produces the most top-heavy and noisy profiles, while DGW's is smoother with a peak in midlevels. SWTG produces a smooth profile, somewhere between WTG and DGW, and in better agreement with observations than either of the others. Numerical experiments without horizontal advection of moisture suggest that that process significantly reduces the precipitation and suppresses the top-heaviness of large-scale vertical motion during the MJO active phases, while experiments in which the effect of cloud on radiation are disabled indicate that cloud-radiative interaction significantly amplifies the MJO. Experiments in which interactive radiation is used produce poorer agreement with observation than those with imposed time-varying radiative heating. Our results highlight the importance of both horizontal advection of moisture and cloud-radiative feedback to the dynamics of the MJO, as well as to accurate simulation and prediction of it in models.

Hierarchical Engine for Large-scale Infrastructure Co-Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2017-04-24

HELICS is designed to support very-large-scale (100,000+ federates) cosimulations with off-the-shelf power-system, communication, market, and end-use tools. Other key features include cross platform operating system support, the integration of both event driven (e.g., packetized communication) and time-series (e.g., power flow) simulations, and the ability to co-iterate among federates to ensure physical model convergence at each time step.

Secure Access Control and Large Scale Robust Representation for Online Multimedia Event Detection

PubMed Central

Liu, Changyu; Li, Huiling

2014-01-01

We developed an online multimedia event detection (MED) system. However, there are a secure access control issue and a large scale robust representation issue when we want to integrate traditional event detection algorithms into the online environment. For the first issue, we proposed a tree proxy-based and service-oriented access control (TPSAC) model based on the traditional role based access control model. Verification experiments were conducted on the CloudSim simulation platform, and the results showed that the TPSAC model is suitable for the access control of dynamic online environments. For the second issue, inspired by the object-bank scene descriptor, we proposed a 1000-object-bank (1000OBK) event descriptor. Feature vectors of the 1000OBK were extracted from response pyramids of 1000 generic object detectors which were trained on standard annotated image datasets, such as the ImageNet dataset. A spatial bag of words tiling approach was then adopted to encode these feature vectors for bridging the gap between the objects and events. Furthermore, we performed experiments in the context of event classification on the challenging TRECVID MED 2012 dataset, and the results showed that the robust 1000OBK event descriptor outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches. PMID:25147840

Statistical Analysis of Small-Scale Magnetic Flux Emergence Patterns: A Useful Subsurface Diagnostic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Derek A.

2016-10-01

While sunspots follow a well-defined pattern of emergence in space and time, small-scale flux emergence is assumed to occur randomly at all times in the quiet Sun. HMI's full-disk coverage, high cadence, spatial resolution, and duty cycle allow us to probe that basic assumption. Some case studies of emergence suggest that temporal clustering on spatial scales of 50-150 Mm may occur. If clustering is present, it could serve as a diagnostic of large-scale subsurface magnetic field structures. We present the results of a manual survey of small-scale flux emergence events over a short time period, and a statistical analysis addressing the question of whether these events show spatio-temporal behavior that is anything other than random.

Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France)

PubMed Central

Royer, Aurélien; Montuire, Sophie; Legendre, Serge; Discamps, Emmanuel; Jeannet, Marcel; Lécuyer, Christophe

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød. PMID:26789523

Integrating legacy data to understand agroecosystem regional dynamics to catastrophic events

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Multi-year extreme drought events are part of the history of the Earth system. Legacy data on the climate drivers, geomorphic features, and agroecosystem responses across a dynamically changing landscape throughout a region can provide important insights to a future where large-scale catastrophic ev...

Contrasting styles of large-scale displacement of unconsolidated sand: examples from the early Jurassic Navajo Sandstone on the Colorado Plateau, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryant, Gerald

2015-04-01

Large-scale soft-sediment deformation features in the Navajo Sandstone have been a topic of interest for nearly 40 years, ever since they were first explored as a criterion for discriminating between marine and continental processes in the depositional environment. For much of this time, evidence for large-scale sediment displacements was commonly attributed to processes of mass wasting. That is, gravity-driven movements of surficial sand. These slope failures were attributed to the inherent susceptibility of dune sand responding to environmental triggers such as earthquakes, floods, impacts, and the differential loading associated with dune topography. During the last decade, a new wave of research is focusing on the event significance of deformation features in more detail, revealing a broad diversity of large-scale deformation morphologies. This research has led to a better appreciation of subsurface dynamics in the early Jurassic deformation events recorded in the Navajo Sandstone, including the important role of intrastratal sediment flow. This report documents two illustrative examples of large-scale sediment displacements represented in extensive outcrops of the Navajo Sandstone along the Utah/Arizona border. Architectural relationships in these outcrops provide definitive constraints that enable the recognition of a large-scale sediment outflow, at one location, and an equally large-scale subsurface flow at the other. At both sites, evidence for associated processes of liquefaction appear at depths of at least 40 m below the original depositional surface, which is nearly an order of magnitude greater than has commonly been reported from modern settings. The surficial, mass flow feature displays attributes that are consistent with much smaller-scale sediment eruptions (sand volcanoes) that are often documented from modern earthquake zones, including the development of hydraulic pressure from localized, subsurface liquefaction and the subsequent escape of fluidized sand toward the unconfined conditions of the surface. The origin of the forces that produced the lateral, subsurface movement of a large body of sand at the other site is not readily apparent. The various constraints on modeling the generation of the lateral force required to produce the observed displacement are considered here, along with photodocumentation of key outcrop relationships.

Rare events in networks with internal and external noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hindes, J.; Schwartz, I. B.

2017-12-01

We study rare events in networks with both internal and external noise, and develop a general formalism for analyzing rare events that combines pair-quenched techniques and large-deviation theory. The probability distribution, shape, and time scale of rare events are considered in detail for extinction in the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model as an illustration. We find that when both types of noise are present, there is a crossover region as the network size is increased, where the probability exponent for large deviations no longer increases linearly with the network size. We demonstrate that the form of the crossover depends on whether the endemic state is localized near the epidemic threshold or not.

Evidence for the timing of sea-level events during MIS 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddall, M.

2005-12-01

Four large sea-level peaks of millennial-scale duration occur during MIS 3. In addition smaller peaks may exist close to the sensitivity of existing methods to derive sea level during these periods. Millennial-scale changes in temperature during MIS 3 are well documented across much of the planet and are linked in some unknown, yet fundamental way to changes in ice volume / sea level. It is therefore highly likely that the timing of the sea level events during MIS 3 will prove to be a `Rosetta Stone' for understanding millennial scale climate variability. I will review observational and mechanistic arguments for the variation of sea level on Antarctic, Greenland and absolute time scales.

Inertial-Range Reconnection in Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence and in the Solar Wind.

PubMed

Lalescu, Cristian C; Shi, Yi-Kang; Eyink, Gregory L; Drivas, Theodore D; Vishniac, Ethan T; Lazarian, Alexander

2015-07-10

In situ spacecraft data on the solar wind show events identified as magnetic reconnection with wide outflows and extended "X lines," 10(3)-10(4) times ion scales. To understand the role of turbulence at these scales, we make a case study of an inertial-range reconnection event in a magnetohydrodynamic simulation. We observe stochastic wandering of field lines in space, breakdown of standard magnetic flux freezing due to Richardson dispersion, and a broadened reconnection zone containing many current sheets. The coarse-grain magnetic geometry is like large-scale reconnection in the solar wind, however, with a hyperbolic flux tube or apparent X line extending over integral length scales.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Characteristics of radar-derived hailstreaks across Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz, Michael; Fluck, Elody; Schmidberger, Manuel; Jürgen Punge, Heinz; Baumstark, Sven

2017-04-01

Hailstorms are among the most damaging natural disasters in various parts of Europe. For example, two supercells in Germany, on 27 and 28 July 2013, bearing hailstones with a diameter of up to 10 cm, caused economic losses of around 4.0 billion EUR. Despite the large damage potential of severe hailstorms, knowledge about the probability and severity of hail events and hailstorm-favoring conditions in Europe still is limited. A large event set of past severe thunderstorms that occurred between 2004 and 2014 was identified for Germany, France, Belgium, and Luxembourg from radar data considering a lower threshold of 55 dBZ of the maximum Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator (maxCAPPI). Additional filtering with lightning data and applying a cell tracking algorithm improves the reliability of the detected severe thunderstorm tracks. The obtained statistics show a gradual increase of the track density with increasing distance to the Atlantic and several local-scale maxima, mostly around the mountains. Both the seasonal and daily cycle of severe thunderstorms show large differences across the investigation area. For example, while in Southern France most events occur in June, the peak month in Northern Germany is August, which can be plausibly explained by differences in convective energy due to the large-scale circulation. Furthermore, ambient conditions in terms of convection-related quantities (e.g., CAPE, wind shear, lapse rate) and prevailing synoptic scale fronts were studied both for the entire event set and a subset, where radar-derived storm tracks were combined with hail observations provided by the European Severe Weather Database ESWD. Over Northern Germany, for example, up to 40% of all radar-derived thunderstorm tracks were associated with cold fronts, while in Southern Germany the ratio is only around 20%. Overall, around 25% of all hail streaks were associated with cold fronts.

Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi

2015-11-01

Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms

PubMed Central

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-01-01

Introduction: This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Methods: Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. Results: Results indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Discussion: Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced. PMID:25685629

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms.

PubMed

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-12-22

This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

Discrete Event Modeling and Massively Parallel Execution of Epidemic Outbreak Phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

2011-01-01

In complex phenomena such as epidemiological outbreaks, the intensity of inherent feedback effects and the significant role of transients in the dynamics make simulation the only effective method for proactive, reactive or post-facto analysis. The spatial scale, runtime speed, and behavioral detail needed in detailed simulations of epidemic outbreaks make it necessary to use large-scale parallel processing. Here, an optimistic parallel execution of a new discrete event formulation of a reaction-diffusion simulation model of epidemic propagation is presented to facilitate in dramatically increasing the fidelity and speed by which epidemiological simulations can be performed. Rollback support needed during optimistic parallelmore » execution is achieved by combining reverse computation with a small amount of incremental state saving. Parallel speedup of over 5,500 and other runtime performance metrics of the system are observed with weak-scaling execution on a small (8,192-core) Blue Gene / P system, while scalability with a weak-scaling speedup of over 10,000 is demonstrated on 65,536 cores of a large Cray XT5 system. Scenarios representing large population sizes exceeding several hundreds of millions of individuals in the largest cases are successfully exercised to verify model scalability.« less

Triangles bridge the scales: Quantifying cellular contributions to tissue deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkel, Matthias; Etournay, Raphaël; Popović, Marko; Salbreux, Guillaume; Eaton, Suzanne; Jülicher, Frank

2017-03-01

In this article, we propose a general framework to study the dynamics and topology of cellular networks that capture the geometry of cell packings in two-dimensional tissues. Such epithelia undergo large-scale deformation during morphogenesis of a multicellular organism. Large-scale deformations emerge from many individual cellular events such as cell shape changes, cell rearrangements, cell divisions, and cell extrusions. Using a triangle-based representation of cellular network geometry, we obtain an exact decomposition of large-scale material deformation. Interestingly, our approach reveals contributions of correlations between cellular rotations and elongation as well as cellular growth and elongation to tissue deformation. Using this triangle method, we discuss tissue remodeling in the developing pupal wing of the fly Drosophila melanogaster.

Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance

PubMed Central

Espírito-Santo, Fernando D.B.; Gloor, Manuel; Keller, Michael; Malhi, Yadvinder; Saatchi, Sassan; Nelson, Bruce; Junior, Raimundo C. Oliveira; Pereira, Cleuton; Lloyd, Jon; Frolking, Steve; Palace, Michael; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Duarte, Valdete; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; López-González, Gabriela; Baker, Tim R.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Brienen, Roel J.W.; Asner, Gregory P.; Boyd, Doreen S.; Phillips, Oliver L.

2014-01-01

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of ~1.7 Pg C y−1 over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of ~0.2 Pg C y−1, and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of ~0.004 Pg C y−1. Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink. PMID:24643258

Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance.

PubMed

Espírito-Santo, Fernando D B; Gloor, Manuel; Keller, Michael; Malhi, Yadvinder; Saatchi, Sassan; Nelson, Bruce; Junior, Raimundo C Oliveira; Pereira, Cleuton; Lloyd, Jon; Frolking, Steve; Palace, Michael; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Duarte, Valdete; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; López-González, Gabriela; Baker, Tim R; Feldpausch, Ted R; Brienen, Roel J W; Asner, Gregory P; Boyd, Doreen S; Phillips, Oliver L

2014-03-18

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of ~1.7 Pg C y(-1) over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of ~0.2 Pg C y(-1), and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of ~0.004 Pg C y(-1). Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink.

Responding to the Event Deluge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Roy D.; Barthelmy, Scott D.; Denny, Robert B.; Graham, Matthew J.; Swinbank, John

2012-01-01

We present the VOEventNet infrastructure for large-scale rapid follow-up of astronomical events, including selection, annotation, machine intelligence, and coordination of observations. The VOEvent.standard is central to this vision, with distributed and replicated services rather than centralized facilities. We also describe some of the event brokers, services, and software that .are connected to the network. These technologies will become more important in the coming years, with new event streams from Gaia, LOF AR, LIGO, LSST, and many others

Semantic Concept Discovery for Large Scale Zero Shot Event Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-25

sources and can be shared among many different events, including unseen ones. Based on this idea, events can be detected by inspect- ing the individual...2013]. Partial success along this vein has also been achieved in the zero-shot setting, e.g. [Habibian et al., 2014; Wu et al., 2014], but the...candle”, “birthday cake” and “applaud- ing”. Since concepts are shared among many different classes (events) and each concept classifier can be trained

Spatiotemporal stick-slip phenomena in a coupled continuum-granular system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ecke, Robert

In sheared granular media, stick-slip behavior is ubiquitous, especially at very small shear rates and weak drive coupling. The resulting slips are characteristic of natural phenomena such as earthquakes and well as being a delicate probe of the collective dynamics of the granular system. In that spirit, we developed a laboratory experiment consisting of sheared elastic plates separated by a narrow gap filled with quasi-two-dimensional granular material (bi-dispersed nylon rods) . We directly determine the spatial and temporal distributions of strain displacements of the elastic continuum over 200 spatial points located adjacent to the gap. Slip events can be divided into large system-spanning events and spatially distributed smaller events. The small events have a probability distribution of event moment consistent with an M - 3 / 2 power law scaling and a Poisson distributed recurrence time distribution. Large events have a broad, log-normal moment distribution and a mean repetition time. As the applied normal force increases, there are fractionally more (less) large (small) events, and the large-event moment distribution broadens. The magnitude of the slip motion of the plates is well correlated with the root-mean-square displacements of the granular matter. Our results are consistent with mean field descriptions of statistical models of earthquakes and avalanches. We further explore the high-speed dynamics of system events and also discuss the effective granular friction of the sheared layer. We find that large events result from stored elastic energy in the plates in this coupled granular-continuum system.

Determination of the number of ψ(3686) events at BESIII

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ai, X. C.; Ambrose, D. J.; Amoroso, A.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; Bai, J. Z.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Ban, Y.; Bennett, J. V.; Bertani, M.; Bian, J. M.; Boger, E.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Cai, H.; Cai, X.; Cakir, O.; Calcaterra, A.; Cao, G. F.; Cetin, S. A.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, X.; Chen, X. R.; Chen, Y. B.; Chu, X. K.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denig, A.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, Y.; Dong, C.; Dong, J.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fan, J. Z.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Fang, Y.; Fava, L.; Feldbauer, F.; Feng, C. Q.; Fu, C. D.; Gao, Q.; Gao, Y.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Gradl, W.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, Y. P.; Han, Y. L.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; Held, T.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, T.; Huang, G. S.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, L.; Huang, X. T.; Hussain, T.; Ji, Q.; Ji, Q. P.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Johansson, T.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kang, X. L.; Kang, X. S.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Kloss, B.; Kopf, B.; Kornicer, M.; Kupsc, A.; Kühn, W.; Lai, W.; Lange, J. S.; Lara, M.; Larin, P.; Li, C. H.; Li, Cheng; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, Kang; Li, Ke; Li, Lei; Li, P. R.; Li, Q. J.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, G. R.; Lin, D. X.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang.; Liu, Feng.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, Huihui.; Liu, J.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqiang.; Liu, Zhiqing.; Loehner, H.; Lou, X. C.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, H. L.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Y.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lv, M.; Lyu, X. R.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, S.; Ma, T.; Ma, X. Y.; Maas, F. E.; Maggiora, M.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Mo, Y. J.; Morales Morales, C.; Moriya, K.; Muchnoi, N. Yu.; Muramatsu, H.; Nefedov, Y.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Nisar, S.; Niu, S. L.; Niu, X. Y.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peng, H. P.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qin, Z. H.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Redmer, C. F.; Ripka, M.; Rong, G.; Sarantsev, A.; Schoenning, K.; Shan, W.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, W. M.; Song, X. Y.; Sosio, S.; Spataro, S.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Tapan, I.; Thorndike, E. H.; Toth, D.; Uman, I.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, D.; Wang, D. Y.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q. J.; Wang, W.; Wang, X. F.; Wang(Yadi, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Weidenkaff, P.; Wen, S. P.; Wiedner, U.; Wolke, M.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, Z.; Xia, L. G.; Xia, Y.; Xiao, D.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, L.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, Q. N.; Xu, X. P.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, H.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, J. S.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J. J.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Yao.; Zhang, Z. H.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, J. W.; Zhao, J. Z.; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling.; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, Q. W.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zhong, B.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhou, X. Y.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, Y. C.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.; BESIII Collaboration

2018-02-01

The numbers of ψ(3686) events accumulated by the BESIII detector for the data taken during 2009 and 2012 are determined to be (107.0+/- 0.8)× {10}6 and (341.1+/- 2.1)× {10}6, respectively, by counting inclusive hadronic events, where the uncertainties are systematic and the statistical uncertainties are negligible. The number of events for the sample taken in 2009 is consistent with that of the previous measurement. The total number of ψ(3686) events for the two data taking periods is (448.1+/- 2.9)× {10}6. Supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2009CB825200), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (11235011, 11322544, 11335008, 11425524, 11475207), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Large-Scale Scientific Facility Program, the Collaborative Innovation Center for Particles and Interactions (CICPI), Joint Large-Scale Scientific Facility Funds of the NSFC and CAS (11179014), Joint Large-Scale Scientific Facility Funds of the NSFC and CAS (11179007, U1232201, U1532257, U1532258), Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11079008), CAS (KJCX2-YW-N29, KJCX2-YW-N45), 100 Talents Program of CAS, National 1000 Talents Program of China, German Research Foundation DFG (Collaborative Research Center CRC 1044), Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Italy, Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen (KNAW) (530-4CDP03), Ministry of Development of Turkey (DPT2006K-120470), National Natural Science Foundation of China (11205082), The Swedish Research Council, U. S. Department of Energy (DE-FG02-05ER41374, DE-SC-0010118, DE-SC-0010504), U.S. National Science Foundation, University of Groningen (RuG) and the Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung GmbH (GSI), Darmstadt, WCU Program of National Research Foundation of Korea (R32-2008-000-10155-0).

Detection of large-scale concentric gravity waves from a Chinese airglow imager network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Chang; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Yuan, Wei; Li, Qinzeng; Liu, Xiao

2018-06-01

Concentric gravity waves (CGWs) contain a broad spectrum of horizontal wavelengths and periods due to their instantaneous localized sources (e.g., deep convection, volcanic eruptions, or earthquake, etc.). However, it is difficult to observe large-scale gravity waves of >100 km wavelength from the ground for the limited field of view of a single camera and local bad weather. Previously, complete large-scale CGW imagery could only be captured by satellite observations. In the present study, we developed a novel method that uses assembling separate images and applying low-pass filtering to obtain temporal and spatial information about complete large-scale CGWs from a network of all-sky airglow imagers. Coordinated observations from five all-sky airglow imagers in Northern China were assembled and processed to study large-scale CGWs over a wide area (1800 km × 1 400 km), focusing on the same two CGW events as Xu et al. (2015). Our algorithms yielded images of large-scale CGWs by filtering out the small-scale CGWs. The wavelengths, wave speeds, and periods of CGWs were measured from a sequence of consecutive assembled images. Overall, the assembling and low-pass filtering algorithms can expand the airglow imager network to its full capacity regarding the detection of large-scale gravity waves.

Effective Integration of Earth Observation Data and Flood Modeling for Rapid Disaster Response: The Texas 2015 Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, G.

2016-12-01

Routinely obtaining real-time 2-D inundation patterns of a flood event at a meaningful spatial resolution and over large scales is at the moment only feasible with either operational aircraft flights or satellite imagery. Of course having model simulations of floodplain inundation available to complement the remote sensing data is highly desirable, for both event re-analysis and forecasting event inundation. Using the Texas 2015 flood disaster, we demonstrate the value of multi-scale EO data for large scale 2-D floodplain inundation modeling and forecasting. A dynamic re-analysis of the Texas 2015 flood disaster was run using a 2-D flood model developed for accurate large scale simulations. We simulated the major rivers entering the Gulf of Mexico and used flood maps produced from both optical and SAR satellite imagery to examine regional model sensitivities and assess associated performance. It was demonstrated that satellite flood maps can complement model simulations and add value, although this is largely dependent on a number of important factors, such as image availability, regional landscape topology, and model uncertainty. In the preferred case where model uncertainty is high, landscape topology is complex (i.e. urbanized coastal area) and satellite flood maps are available (in case of SAR for instance), satellite data can significantly reduce model uncertainty by identifying the "best possible" model parameter set. However, most often the situation is occurring where model uncertainty is low and spatially contiguous flooding can be mapped from satellites easily enough, such as in rural large inland river floodplains. Consequently, not much value from satellites can be added. Nevertheless, where a large number of flood maps are available, model credibility can be increased substantially. In the case presented here this was true for at least 60% of the many thousands of kilometers of river flow length simulated, where satellite flood maps existed. The next steps of this project is to employ a technique termed "targeted observation" approach, which is an assimilation based procedure that allows quantifying the impact observations have on model predictions at the local scale and also along the entire river system, when assimilated with the model at specific "overpass" locations.

Studies of Postdisaster Economic Recovery: Analysis, Synthesis, and Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-06-01

of a large-scale nuclear disaster can be viewed in the aggre- gate as attempting to answer two broad questions: 1. Do resources survive in sufficient...With respect to economic institutional issues in the aftermath of a nuclear disaster , published research has been, almost without exception, speculative...possibilities. There are at least three major themes that per- meate the literature on economic control in the event of a large-scale nuclear disaster . First

Generalizing a nonlinear geophysical flood theory to medium-sized river networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gupta, Vijay K.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Troutman, Brent M.; Dawdy, David; Krajewski, Witold F.

2010-01-01

The central hypothesis of a nonlinear geophysical flood theory postulates that, given space-time rainfall intensity for a rainfall-runoff event, solutions of coupled mass and momentum conservation differential equations governing runoff generation and transport in a self-similar river network produce spatial scaling, or a power law, relation between peak discharge and drainage area in the limit of large area. The excellent fit of a power law for the destructive flood event of June 2008 in the 32,400-km2 Iowa River basin over four orders of magnitude variation in drainage areas supports the central hypothesis. The challenge of predicting observed scaling exponent and intercept from physical processes is explained. We show scaling in mean annual peak discharges, and briefly discuss that it is physically connected with scaling in multiple rainfall-runoff events. Scaling in peak discharges would hold in a non-stationary climate due to global warming but its slope and intercept would change.

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational instability of the 1996-97 lava dome of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, P.D.; Calder, E.S.; Druitt, T.H.; Hoblitt, R.; Robertson, R.; Sparks, R.S.J.; Young, S.R.

1998-01-01

Numerous pyroclastic flows were produced during 1996-97 by collapse of the growing andesitic lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Measured deposit volumes from these flows range from 0.2 to 9 ?? 106 m3. Flows range from discrete, single pulse events to sustained large scale dome collapse events. Flows entered the sea on the eastern and southern coasts, depositing large fans of material at the coast. Small runout distance (<1 km) flows had average flow front velocities in the order of 3-10 m/s while flow fronts of the larger runout distance flows (up to 6.5 km) advanced in the order of 15-30 m/s. Many flows were locally highly erosive. Field relations show that development of the fine grained ash cloud surge component was enhanced during the larger sustained events. Periods of elevated pyroclastic flow productivity and sustained dome collapse events are linked to pulses of high magma extrusion rates.Numerous pyroclastic flows were produced during 1996-97 by collapse of the growing andesitic lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Measured deposit volumes from these flows range from 0.2 to 9??106 m3. Flows range from discrete, single pulse events to sustained large scale dome collapse events. Flows entered the sea on the eastern and southern coasts, depositing large fans of material at the coast. Small runout distance (<1 km) flows had average flow front velocities in the order of 3-10 m/s while flow fronts of the larger runout distance flows (up to 6.5 km) advanced in the order of 15-30 m/s. Many flows were locally highly erosive. Field relations show that development of the fine grained ash cloud surge component was enhanced during the larger sustained events. Periods of elevated dome pyroclastic flow productivity and sustained collapse events are linked to pulses of high magma extrusion rates.

Intermountain Cyclogenesis: a Climatology and Multiscale Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tiros Peijiun

1995-11-01

A detailed study of Intermountain cyclones over the western United States is conducted through climatological and case studies. An eleven-year (1976-1986) statistical survey shows that the Nevada cyclogenesis is mainly a springtime (March, April) event while a secondary maximum of cyclogenesis frequency is found in November. Nearly 75% of the Nevada cyclogenesis events (177 out of 237 cases) take place under large-scale westerly to southerly flow aloft across the Sierra Nevada Mountains, while 24% of the events (57 out of 237 cases) occur under northwesterly flow aloft. A composite study of these two types of the flow is shown to demonstrate how differences in large-scale topography affect Intermountain cyclogenesis processes. The result from a case study of 9-11 February 1984 reveals that an antecedent Nevada lee trough formed as a result of large-scale southwesterly flow aloft interacting with the underlying terrain well before the surface and upper-level troughs moved onshore. Subsequent cyclogenesis took place in situ with the axis of the trough as the center of large-scale quasi-geostrophic ascent/positive potential vorticity advection began to spread across the Sierra Nevada Mountains. As the cyclone moved downstream, it was observed to weaken well before reaching the Continental Divide while a new cyclonic development occurred east of the Rocky Mountains. It is shown that the weakening of the Intermountain cyclone was associated with the ongoing interaction between the Intermountain cyclone and large-scale topography and the progressive outrunning of the large-scale dynamical forcing aloft away from the surface cyclone center. An investigation of the large-scale evolution for the 26-29 January 1980 case, which developed beneath the northwesterly flow aloft, further reveals that the underlying topography plays two major roles in contributing to the initial cyclogenesis: (1) to block and to retard cold, stable air east of the Continental Divide from rushing into the Great Basin region, and (2) to produce differential pressure falls across the Sierra Nevada Mountains (more along the eastern slopes) in response to increasing cross -mountain flow. Numerous transient shortwaves in the midtroposphere rapidly move across the GB and the Rocky Mountains into the Plains States, while the Intermountain cyclone moves slower than to the disturbances aloft. There is no downstream lee trough/cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies during the investigation period since the leeside is characterized by cold, stable air. The third case study is made of an 11-14 December 1987 Intermountain cyclogenesis case which took place in an area of relatively warm and less stable environment near the Arizona-New Mexico border beneath northwesterly flow aloft. The ensuing interaction between the large -scale flow and underlying terrain allowed the surface cyclone to remain quasi-stationary for its entire 36 h life span. We also document a cold-season small-scale Catalina eddy development in the coastal southern California waters in this case. The eddy formed as the equatorward and northeasterly flow upstream of the coastal (San Rafael and Saint Ynez) mountains increased in the lower troposphere. Weak large-scale ascent in the mid- and upper-troposphere over the incipient eddy environment provided evidence of the orographic nature of the small -scale cyclone. The eddy was eventually displaced seaward and weakened with the arrival of powerful large-scale subsidence and increasing northeasterly downslope flow at the lower levels that reached the coastal waters.

Use of satellite and modeled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

2015-09-01

The potential of coupling soil moisture and a Universal Soil Loss Equation-based (USLE-based) model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e., the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the USLE enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, the soil moisture being an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to ~ 0.35 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Use of satellite and modelled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

2015-03-01

The potential of coupling soil moisture and a~USLE-based model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in Central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e. the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the RUSLE/USLE, enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, being the soil moisture an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to of ~ 0.35 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Ensemble-based diagnosis of the large-scale processes associated with multiple high-impact weather events over North America during late October 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, B. J.; Bosart, L. F.; Keyser, D.

2013-12-01

During late October 2007, the interaction between a deep polar trough and Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kajiki off the eastern Asian coast perturbed the North Pacific jet stream and resulted in the development of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train extending into North America, contributing to three concurrent high-impact weather events in North America: wildfires in southern California associated with strong Santa Ana winds, a cold surge into eastern Mexico, and widespread heavy rainfall (~150 mm) in the south-central United States. Observational analysis indicates that these high-impact weather events were all dynamically linked with the development of a major high-latitude ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a deep trough over central North America. In this study, global operational ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) obtained from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used to characterize the medium-range predictability of the large-scale flow pattern associated with the three events and to diagnose the large-scale atmospheric processes favorable, or unfavorable, for the occurrence of the three events. Examination of the ECMWF forecasts leading up to the time period of the three high-impact weather events (~23-25 October 2007) indicates that ensemble spread (i.e., uncertainty) in the 500-hPa geopotential height field develops in connection with downstream baroclinic development (DBD) across the North Pacific, associated with the interaction between TC Kajiki and the polar trough along the eastern Asian coast, and subsequently moves downstream into North America, yielding considerable uncertainty with respect to the structure, amplitude, and position of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Ensemble sensitivity analysis conducted for key sensible weather parameters corresponding to the three high-impact weather events, including relative humidity, temperature, and precipitation, demonstrates quantitatively that all three high-impact weather events are closely linked with the development of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Moreover, results of this analysis indicate that the development of the ridge-trough pattern is modulated by DBD and cyclogenesis upstream over the central and eastern North Pacific. Specifically, ensemble members exhibiting less intense cyclogenesis and a more poleward cyclone track over the central and eastern North Pacific feature the development of a poleward-displaced ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a cut-off low over the Intermountain West, an unfavorable scenario for the occurrence the three high-impact weather events. Conversely, ensemble members exhibiting more intense cyclogenesis and a less poleward cyclone track feature persistent ridging along the western coast of North America and trough development over central North America, establishing a favorable flow pattern for the three high-impact weather events. Results demonstrate that relatively small initial differences in the large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific among ensemble members can result in large uncertainty in the forecast downstream flow response over North America.

A Large-Scale Search for Evidence of Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar Flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Inglis, A. R.; Ireland, J.; Dennis, B. R..; Hayes, L.; Gallagher, P.

2016-01-01

The nature of quasi-periodic pulsations (QPP) in solar flares is poorly constrained, and critically the general prevalence of such signals in solar flares is unknown. Therefore, we perform a large-scale search for evidence of signals consistent with QPP in solar flares, focusing on the 1300 s timescale. We analyze 675 M- and X-class flares observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series in 18 soft X-rays between 2011 February 1 and 2015 December 31. Additionally, over the same era we analyze Fermi/Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) 1525 keV X-ray data for each of these flares associated with a Fermi/GBM solar flare trigger, a total of 261 events. Using a model comparison method, we determine whether there is evidence for a substantial enhancement in the Fourier power spectrum that may be consistent with a QPP signature, based on three tested models; a power-law plus a constant, a broken power-law plus constant, and a power-law-plus-constant with an additional QPP signature component. From this, we determine that approx. 30% of GOES events and approx. 8% of Fermi/GBM events show strong signatures consistent with classical interpretations of QPP. For the remaining events either two or more tested models cannot be strongly distinguished from each other, or the events are well-described by single power-law or broken power-law Fourier power spectra. For both instruments, a preferred characteristic time-scale of approx. 5-30 s was found in the QPP-like events, with no dependence on flare magnitude in either GOES or GBM data. We also show that individual events in the sample show similar characteristic time-scales in both GBM and GOES data sets. We discuss the implications of these results for our understanding of solar flares and possible QPP mechanisms.

Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Pei, Lisi; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.

2016-04-01

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for severe flooding over a large region, little is known about how extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and occur at sub-daily time scales have changed over time. Here we use the observed hourly precipitation from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 forcing datasets to determine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation events of short (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h) duration for the period 1979-2013. The results indicate an increasing trend in the central and eastern US. Over most of the western US, especially the Southwest and the Intermountain West, the trends are generally negative. These trends can be largely explained by the interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the AMO making a greater contribution to the trends in both warm and cold seasons.

Mid-Holocene cluster of large-scale landslides revealed in the Southwestern Alps by 36Cl dating. Insight on an Alpine-scale landslide activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerathe, Swann; Lebourg, Thomas; Braucher, Régis; Bourlès, Didier

2014-04-01

Although it is generally assumed that the internal structure of a slope (e.g. lithology and rock mass properties, inherited faults and heterogeneities, etc.) is preponderant for the progressive development of large-scale landslides, the ability to identify triggering factors responsible for final slope failures such as glacial debuttressing, seismic activities or climatic changes, especially when considering landslide cluster at an orogen-scale, is still debated. Highlighting in this study the spatial and temporal concordant clustering of deep-seated slope failures in the external Southwestern Alps, we discuss and review the possible causes for such wide-spread slope instabilities at both local and larger (Alpine) scale. High resolution field mapping coupled with electrical resistivity tomography first allows establishing an inventory of large landslides in the Southwestern Alps, determining their structural model, precising their depth limit (100-200 m) as well as the involved rock volumes (>107 m3). We show that they developed in the same geostructural context of thick mudstone layers overlain by faulted limestone and followed a block-spread model of deformation that could evolve in rock-collapse events. Cosmic ray exposure dating (CRE), using both 36Cl and 10Be in coexisting limestone and chert, respectively, has been carried out from the main scarps of six Deep Seated Landslides (DSL) and leads to landslide-failure CRE ages ranging from 3.7 to 4.7 ka. They highlighted: (i) mainly single and fast ruptures and (ii) a possible concomitant initiation with a main peak of activity between 3.3 and 5.1 ka, centered at ca 4.2 ka. Because this region was not affected by historical glaciations events, landslide triggering by glacial unloading can be excluded. The presented data combined with field observations preferentially suggest that these failures were climatically driven and were most likely controlled by high pressure changes in the karstic medium. In effect, the chronicle of failure-ages is concomitant to a well-known climatic pulse, the “4.2 ka” climate event characterized by intense hydrological perturbations associated to the heaviest rainfall period of the entire Holocene. Despite requiring further investigations and discussions, the dating of numerous events across the entire Alps during the middle Holocene period suggests a potential synchronous triggering of several large-scale gravitational-failures induced by the mid-Holocene climatic transition.

Leveraging Successful Collaborative Processes to Improve Performance Outcomes in Large-Scale Event Planning: Super Bowl, A Planned Homeland Security Event

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

are turning out to be counterproductive because they are culturally anathema (Wollman, 2009). A consideration of psychological tenets by Sigmund ... Freud suggests a principle aspect of dysfunction in collaboration. He reasoned that An Ego governed by social convention and a Superego governed by

Design and Evaluation of Simulations for the Development of Complex Decision-Making Skills.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Varley, Glen

2002-01-01

Command and Control Training Using Simulation (CACTUS) is a computer digital mapping system used by police to manage large-scale public events. Audio and video records of adaptive training scenarios using CACTUS show how the simulation develops decision-making skills for strategic and tactical event management. (SK)

STRIDE: Species Tree Root Inference from Gene Duplication Events.

PubMed

Emms, David M; Kelly, Steven

2017-12-01

The correct interpretation of any phylogenetic tree is dependent on that tree being correctly rooted. We present STRIDE, a fast, effective, and outgroup-free method for identification of gene duplication events and species tree root inference in large-scale molecular phylogenetic analyses. STRIDE identifies sets of well-supported in-group gene duplication events from a set of unrooted gene trees, and analyses these events to infer a probability distribution over an unrooted species tree for the location of its root. We show that STRIDE correctly identifies the root of the species tree in multiple large-scale molecular phylogenetic data sets spanning a wide range of timescales and taxonomic groups. We demonstrate that the novel probability model implemented in STRIDE can accurately represent the ambiguity in species tree root assignment for data sets where information is limited. Furthermore, application of STRIDE to outgroup-free inference of the origin of the eukaryotic tree resulted in a root probability distribution that provides additional support for leading hypotheses for the origin of the eukaryotes. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

3-Dimensional Root Cause Diagnosis via Co-analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Ziming; Lan, Zhiling; Yu, Li

2012-01-01

With the growth of system size and complexity, reliability has become a major concern for large-scale systems. Upon the occurrence of failure, system administrators typically trace the events in Reliability, Availability, and Serviceability (RAS) logs for root cause diagnosis. However, RAS log only contains limited diagnosis information. Moreover, the manual processing is time-consuming, error-prone, and not scalable. To address the problem, in this paper we present an automated root cause diagnosis mechanism for large-scale HPC systems. Our mechanism examines multiple logs to provide a 3-D fine-grained root cause analysis. Here, 3-D means that our analysis will pinpoint the failure layer,more » the time, and the location of the event that causes the problem. We evaluate our mechanism by means of real logs collected from a production IBM Blue Gene/P system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It successfully identifies failure layer information for 219 failures during 23-month period. Furthermore, it effectively identifies the triggering events with time and location information, even when the triggering events occur hundreds of hours before the resulting failures.« less

The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

2016-04-01

There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water in large scale basins in the future. The broader benefits of engineering landscapes to hold water for pollution control, sediment loss and drought minimisation will also be shown.

Association of 3He-rich solar energetic particles with large-scale coronal waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucik, Radoslav; Innes, Davina; Guo, Lijia; Mason, Glenn M.; Wiedenbeck, Mark

2016-07-01

Impulsive or 3He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been typically associated with jets or small EUV brightenings. We identify 30 impulsive SEP events from ACE at L1 during the solar minimum period 2007-2010 and examine their solar sources with high resolution STEREO-A EUV images. At beginning of 2007, STEREO-A was near the Earth while at the end of the investigated period, when there were more events, STEREO-A was leading the Earth by 90°. Thus STEREO-A provided a better (more direct) view on 3He-rich flares generally located on the western Sun's hemisphere. Surprisingly, we find that about half of the events are associated with large-scale EUV coronal waves. This finding provides new insights on acceleration and transport of 3He-rich SEPs in solar corona. It is believed that elemental and isotopic fractionation in impulsive SEP events is caused by more localized processes operating in the flare sites. The EUV waves have been reported in gradual SEP events in association with fast coronal mass ejections. To examine their role on 3He-rich SEPs production the energy spectra and relative abundances are discussed. R. Bucik is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under grant BU 3115/2-1.

Spatial Scaling of Floods in Atlantic Coastal Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plank, C.

2013-12-01

Climate and land use changes are altering global, regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, past events may not accurately represent the events that will occur in the future. Methods for hydrologic prediction, both statistical and deterministic, require adequate data for calibration. Streamflow gauges tend to be located on large rivers. As a result, statistical flood frequency analysis, which relies on gauge data, is biased towards large watersheds. Conversely, the complexity of parameterizing watershed processes in deterministic hydrological models limits these to small watersheds. Spatial scaling relationships between drainage basin area and discharge can be used to bridge these two methodologies and provide new approaches to hydrologic prediction. The relationship of discharge (Q) to drainage basin area (A) can be expressed as a power function: Q = αAθ. This study compares scaling exponents (θ) and coefficients (α) for floods of varying magnitude across a selection of major Atlantic Coast watersheds. Comparisons are made by normalizing flood discharges to a reference area bankfull discharge for each watershed. These watersheds capture the geologic and geomorphic transitions along the Atlantic Coast from narrow bedrock-dominated river valleys to wide coastal plain watersheds. Additionally, there is a range of hydrometeorological events that cause major floods in these basins including tropical storms, thunderstorm systems and winter-spring storms. The mix of flood-producing events changes along a gradient as well, with tropical storms and hurricanes increasing in dominance from north to south as a significant cause of major floods. Scaling exponents and coefficients were determined for both flood quantile estimates (e.g. 1.5-, 10-, 100-year floods) and selected hydrometeorological events (e.g. hurricanes, summer thunderstorms, winter-spring storms). Initial results indicate that southern coastal plain watersheds have lower scaling exponents (θ) than northern watersheds. However, the relative magnitudes of 100-year and other large floods are higher in the coastal plain rivers. In the transition zone between northern and southern watersheds, basins like the Potomac in the Mid-Atlantic region have similar scaling exponents as northern river basins, but relative flood magnitudes comparable to the southern coastal plain watersheds. These differences reflect variations in both geologic/geomorphic and climatic settings. Understanding these variations are important to appropriately using these relationships to improve flood risk models and analyses.

Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: Early farming communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Matthews, Roger; Matthews, Wendy; Black, Stuart

2016-03-01

Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and 8200 cal BP.

The steady-state mosaic of disturbance and succession across an old-growth Central Amazon forest landscape.

PubMed

Chambers, Jeffrey Q; Negron-Juarez, Robinson I; Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Di Vittorio, Alan; Tews, Joerg; Roberts, Dar; Ribeiro, Gabriel H P M; Trumbore, Susan E; Higuchi, Niro

2013-03-05

Old-growth forest ecosystems comprise a mosaic of patches in different successional stages, with the fraction of the landscape in any particular state relatively constant over large temporal and spatial scales. The size distribution and return frequency of disturbance events, and subsequent recovery processes, determine to a large extent the spatial scale over which this old-growth steady state develops. Here, we characterize this mosaic for a Central Amazon forest by integrating field plot data, remote sensing disturbance probability distribution functions, and individual-based simulation modeling. Results demonstrate that a steady state of patches of varying successional age occurs over a relatively large spatial scale, with important implications for detecting temporal trends on plots that sample a small fraction of the landscape. Long highly significant stochastic runs averaging 1.0 Mg biomass⋅ha(-1)⋅y(-1) were often punctuated by episodic disturbance events, resulting in a sawtooth time series of hectare-scale tree biomass. To maximize the detection of temporal trends for this Central Amazon site (e.g., driven by CO2 fertilization), plots larger than 10 ha would provide the greatest sensitivity. A model-based analysis of fractional mortality across all gap sizes demonstrated that 9.1-16.9% of tree mortality was missing from plot-based approaches, underscoring the need to combine plot and remote-sensing methods for estimating net landscape carbon balance. Old-growth tropical forests can exhibit complex large-scale structure driven by disturbance and recovery cycles, with ecosystem and community attributes of hectare-scale plots exhibiting continuous dynamic departures from a steady-state condition.

Evolution via recombination: Cell-to-cell contact facilitates larger recombination events in Streptococcus pneumoniae.

PubMed

Cowley, Lauren A; Petersen, Fernanda C; Junges, Roger; Jimson D Jimenez, Med; Morrison, Donald A; Hanage, William P

2018-06-01

Homologous recombination in the genetic transformation model organism Streptococcus pneumoniae is thought to be important in the adaptation and evolution of this pathogen. While competent pneumococci are able to scavenge DNA added to laboratory cultures, large-scale transfers of multiple kb are rare under these conditions. We used whole genome sequencing (WGS) to map transfers in recombinants arising from contact of competent cells with non-competent 'target' cells, using strains with known genomes, distinguished by a total of ~16,000 SNPs. Experiments designed to explore the effect of environment on large scale recombination events used saturating purified donor DNA, short-term cell assemblages on Millipore filters, and mature biofilm mixed cultures. WGS of 22 recombinants for each environment mapped all SNPs that were identical between the recombinant and the donor but not the recipient. The mean recombination event size was found to be significantly larger in cell-to-cell contact cultures (4051 bp in filter assemblage and 3938 bp in biofilm co-culture versus 1815 bp with saturating DNA). Up to 5.8% of the genome was transferred, through 20 recombination events, to a single recipient, with the largest single event incorporating 29,971 bp. We also found that some recombination events are clustered, that these clusters are more likely to occur in cell-to-cell contact environments, and that they cause significantly increased linkage of genes as far apart as 60,000 bp. We conclude that pneumococcal evolution through homologous recombination is more likely to occur on a larger scale in environments that permit cell-to-cell contact.

Onset of a Large Ejective Solar Eruption from a Typical Coronal-jet-base Field Configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Navin Chandra; Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Magara, Tetsuya; Moon, Yong-Jae

2017-08-01

Utilizing multiwavelength observations and magnetic field data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and RHESSI, we investigate a large-scale ejective solar eruption of 2014 December 18 from active region NOAA 12241. This event produced a distinctive “three-ribbon” flare, having two parallel ribbons corresponding to the ribbons of a standard two-ribbon flare, and a larger-scale third quasi-circular ribbon offset from the other two. There are two components to this eruptive event. First, a flux rope forms above a strong-field polarity inversion line and erupts and grows as the parallel ribbons turn on, grow, and spread apart from that polarity inversion line; this evolution is consistent with the mechanism of tether-cutting reconnection for eruptions. Second, the eruption of the arcade that has the erupting flux rope in its core undergoes magnetic reconnection at the null point of a fan dome that envelops the erupting arcade, resulting in formation of the quasi-circular ribbon; this is consistent with the breakout reconnection mechanism for eruptions. We find that the parallel ribbons begin well before (˜12 minutes) the onset of the circular ribbon, indicating that tether-cutting reconnection (or a non-ideal MHD instability) initiated this event, rather than breakout reconnection. The overall setup for this large-scale eruption (diameter of the circular ribbon ˜105 km) is analogous to that of coronal jets (base size ˜104 km), many of which, according to recent findings, result from eruptions of small-scale “minifilaments.” Thus these findings confirm that eruptions of sheared-core magnetic arcades seated in fan-spine null-point magnetic topology happen on a wide range of size scales on the Sun.

Observation of scaling violations in scaled momentum distributions at HERA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ZEUS Collaboration; Breitweg, J.; Derrick, M.; Krakauer, D.; Magill, S.; Mikunas, D.; Musgrave, B.; Repond, J.; Stanek, R.; Talaga, R. L.; Yoshida, R.; Zhang, H.; Mattingly, M. C. K.; Anselmo, F.; Antonioli, P.; Bari, G.; Basile, M.; Bellagamba, L.; Boscherini, D.; Bruni, A.; Bruni, G.; Cara Romeo, G.; Castellini, G.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Contin, A.; Corradi, M.; de Pasquale, S.; Gialas, I.; Giusti, P.; Iacobucci, G.; Laurenti, G.; Levi, G.; Margotti, A.; Massam, T.; Nania, R.; Palmonari, F.; Pesci, A.; Polini, A.; Ricci, F.; Sartorelli, G.; Zamora Garcia, Y.; Zichichi, A.; Amelung, C.; Bornheim, A.; Brock, I.; Coböken, K.; Crittenden, J.; Deffner, R.; Eckert, M.; Grothe, M.; Hartmann, H.; Heinloth, K.; Heinz, L.; Hilger, E.; Jakob, H.-P.; Katz, U. F.; Kerger, R.; Paul, E.; Pfeiffer, M.; Rembser, Ch.; Stamm, J.; Wedemeyer, R.; Wieber, H.; Bailey, D. S.; Campbell-Robson, S.; Cottingham, W. N.; Foster, B.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Hayes, M. E.; Heath, G. P.; Heath, H. F.; McFall, J. D.; Piccioni, D.; Roff, D. G.; Tapper, R. J.; Arneodo, M.; Ayad, R.; Capua, M.; Garfagnini, A.; Iannotti, L.; Schioppa, M.; Susinno, G.; Kim, J. Y.; Lee, J. H.; Lim, I. T.; Pac, M. Y.; Caldwell, A.; Cartiglia, N.; Jing, Z.; Liu, W.; Mellado, B.; Parsons, J. A.; Ritz, S.; Sampson, S.; Sciulli, F.; Straub, P. B.; Zhu, Q.; Borzemski, P.; Chwastowski, J.; Eskreys, A.; Figiel, J.; Klimek, K.; Przybycień , M. B.; Zawiejski, L.; Adamczyk, L.; Bednarek, B.; Bukowy, M.; Jeleń , K.; Kisielewska, D.; Kowalski, T.; Przybycień , M.; Rulikowska-Zarȩ Bska, E.; Suszycki, L.; Zaja C, J.; Duliń Ski, Z.; Kotań Ski, A.; Abbiendi, G.; Bauerdick, L. A. T.; Behrens, U.; Beier, H.; Bienlein, J. K.; Cases, G.; Deppe, O.; Desler, K.; Drews, G.; Fricke, U.; Gilkinson, D. J.; Glasman, C.; Göttlicher, P.; Haas, T.; Hain, W.; Hasell, D.; Johnson, K. F.; Kasemann, M.; Koch, W.; Kötz, U.; Kowalski, H.; Labs, J.; Lindemann, L.; Löhr, B.; Löwe, M.; Mań Czak, O.; Milewski, J.; Monteiro, T.; Ng, J. S. T.; Notz, D.; Ohrenberg, K.; Park, I. H.; Pellegrino, A.; Pelucchi, F.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Roco, M.; Rohde, M.; Roldán, J.; Ryan, J. J.; Savin, A. A.; Schneekloth, U.; Selonke, F.; Surrow, B.; Tassi, E.; Voß, T.; Westphal, D.; Wolf, G.; Wollmer, U.; Youngman, C.; Zsolararnecki, A. F.; Zeuner, W.; Burow, B. D.; Grabosch, H. J.; Meyer, A.; Schlenstedt, S.; Barbagli, G.; Gallo, E.; Pelfer, P.; Maccarrone, G.; Votano, L.; Bamberger, A.; Eisenhardt, S.; Markun, P.; Trefzger, T.; Wölfle, S.; Bromley, J. T.; Brook, N. H.; Bussey, P. J.; Doyle, A. T.; MacDonald, N.; Saxon, D. H.; Sinclair, L. E.; Strickland, E.; Waugh, R.; Bohnet, I.; Gendner, N.; Holm, U.; Meyer-Larsen, A.; Salehi, H.; Wick, K.; Gladilin, L. K.; Horstmann, D.; Kçira, D.; Klanner, R.; Lohrmann, E.; Poelz, G.; Schott, W.; Zetsche, F.; Bacon, T. C.; Butterworth, I.; Cole, J. E.; Howell, G.; Hung, B. H. Y.; Lamberti, L.; Long, K. R.; Miller, D. B.; Pavel, N.; Prinias, A.; Sedgbeer, J. K.; Sideris, D.; Mallik, U.; Wang, S. M.; Wu, J. T.; Cloth, P.; Filges, D.; Fleck, J. I.; Ishii, T.; Kuze, M.; Suzuki, I.; Tokushuku, K.; Yamada, S.; Yamauchi, K.; Yamazaki, Y.; Hong, S. J.; Lee, S. B.; Nam, S. W.; Park, S. K.; Barreiro, F.; Fernández, J. P.; García, G.; Graciani, R.; Hernández, J. M.; Hervás, L.; Labarga, L.; Martínez, M.; del Peso, J.; Puga, J.; Terrón, J.; de Trocóniz, J. F.; Corriveau, F.; Hanna, D. S.; Hartmann, J.; Hung, L. W.; Murray, W. N.; Ochs, A.; Riveline, M.; Stairs, D. G.; St-Laurent, M.; Ullmann, R.; Tsurugai, T.; Bashkirov, V.; Dolgoshein, B. A.; Stifutkin, A.; Bashindzhagyan, G. L.; Ermolov, P. F.; Golubkov, Yu. A.; Khein, L. A.; Korotkova, N. A.; Korzhavina, I. A.; Kuzmin, V. A.; Lukina, O. Yu.; Proskuryakov, A. S.; Shcheglova, L. M.; Solomin, A. N.; Zotkin, S. A.; Bokel, C.; Botje, M.; Brümmer, N.; Chlebana, F.; Engelen, J.; Koffeman, E.; Kooijman, P.; van Sighem, A.; Tiecke, H.; Tuning, N.; Verkerke, W.; Vossebeld, J.; Vreeswijk, M.; Wiggers, L.; de Wolf, E.; Acosta, D.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Gilmore, J.; Ginsburg, C. M.; Kim, C. L.; Ling, T. Y.; Nylander, P.; Romanowski, T. A.; Blaikley, H. E.; Cashmore, R. J.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Devenish, R. C. E.; Edmonds, J. K.; Große-Knetter, J.; Harnew, N.; Lancaster, M.; Nath, C.; Noyes, V. A.; Quadt, A.; Ruske, O.; Tickner, J. R.; Uijterwaal, H.; Walczak, R.; Waters, D. S.; Bertolin, A.; Brugnera, R.; Carlin, R.; dal Corso, F.; Dosselli, U.; Limentani, S.; Morandin, M.; Posocco, M.; Stanco, L.; Stroili, R.; Voci, C.; Bulmahn, J.; Oh, B. Y.; Okrasiń Ski, J. R.; Toothacker, W. S.; Whitmore, J. J.; Iga, Y.; D'Agostini, G.; Marini, G.; Nigro, A.; Raso, M.; Hart, J. C.; McCubbin, N. A.; Shah, T. P.; Epperson, D.; Heusch, C.; Rahn, J. T.; Sadrozinski, H. F.-W.; Seiden, A.; Wichmann, R.; Williams, D. C.; Schwarzer, O.; Walenta, A. H.; Abramowicz, H.; Briskin, G.; Dagan, S.; Kananov, S.; Levy, A.; Abe, T.; Fusayasu, T.; Inuzuka, M.; Nagano, K.; Umemori, K.; Yamashita, T.; Hamatsu, R.; Hirose, T.; Homma, K.; Kitamura, S.; Matsushita, T.; Cirio, R.; Costa, M.; Ferrero, M. I.; Maselli, S.; Monaco, V.; Peroni, C.; Petrucci, M. C.; Ruspa, M.; Sacchi, R.; Solano, A.; Staiano, A.; Dardo, M.; Bailey, D. C.; Fagerstroem, C.-P.; Galea, R.; Hartner, G. F.; Joo, K. K.; Levman, G. M.; Martin, J. F.; Orr, R. S.; Polenz, S.; Sabetfakhri, A.; Simmons, D.; Teuscher, R. J.; Butterworth, J. M.; Catterall, C. D.; Jones, T. W.; Lane, J. B.; Saunders, R. L.; Shulman, J.; Sutton, M. R.; Wing, M.; Ciborowski, J.; Grzelak, G.; Kasprzak, M.; Muchorowski, K.; Nowak, R. J.; Pawlak, J. M.; Pawlak, R.; Tymieniecka, T.; Wróblewski, A. K.; Zakrzewski, J. A.; Adamus, M.; Coldewey, C.; Eisenberg, Y.; Hochman, D.; Karshon, U.; Badgett, W. F.; Chapin, D.; Cross, R.; Dasu, S.; Foudas, C.; Loveless, R. J.; Mattingly, S.; Reeder, D. D.; Smith, W. H.; Vaiciulis, A.; Wodarczyk, M.; Bhadra, S.; Frisken, W. R.; Khakzad, M.; Schmidke, W. B.

1997-11-01

Charged particle production has been measured in deep inelastic scattering (DIS) events over a large range of x and Q2 using the ZEUS detector. The evolution of the scaled momentum, xp, with Q2, in the range 10 to 1280 GeV2, has been investigated in the current fragmentation region of the Breit frame. The results show clear evidence, in a single experiment, for scaling violations in scaled momenta as a function of Q2.

Measurement of kT splitting scales in W→ℓν events at [Formula: see text] with the ATLAS detector.

PubMed

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Schram, M; Schroeder, C; Schroer, N; Schultens, M J; Schultes, J; Schultz-Coulon, H-C; Schulz, H; Schumacher, M; Schumm, B A; Schune, Ph; Schwartzman, A; Schwegler, Ph; Schwemling, Ph; Schwienhorst, R; Schwindling, J; Schwindt, T; Schwoerer, M; Sciacca, F G; Scifo, E; Sciolla, G; Scott, W G; Searcy, J; Sedov, G; Sedykh, E; Seidel, S C; Seiden, A; Seifert, F; Seixas, J M; Sekhniaidze, G; Sekula, S J; Selbach, K E; Seliverstov, D M; Sellden, B; Sellers, G; Seman, M; Semprini-Cesari, N; Serfon, C; Serin, L; Serkin, L; Serre, T; Seuster, R; Severini, H; Sfyrla, A; Shabalina, E; Shamim, M; Shan, L Y; Shank, J T; Shao, Q T; Shapiro, M; Shatalov, P B; Shaw, K; Sherwood, P; Shimizu, S; Shimojima, M; Shin, T; Shiyakova, M; Shmeleva, A; Shochet, M J; Short, D; Shrestha, S; Shulga, E; Shupe, M A; Sicho, P; Sidoti, A; Siegert, F; Sijacki, Dj; Silbert, O; Silva, J; Silver, Y; Silverstein, D; Silverstein, S B; Simak, V; Simard, O; Simic, Lj; Simion, S; Simioni, E; Simmons, B; Simoniello, R; Simonyan, M; Sinervo, P; Sinev, N B; Sipica, V; Siragusa, G; Sircar, A; Sisakyan, A N; Sivoklokov, S Yu; Sjölin, J; Sjursen, T B; Skinnari, L A; Skottowe, H P; Skovpen, K; Skubic, P; Slater, M; Slavicek, T; Sliwa, K; Smakhtin, V; Smart, B H; Smestad, L; Smirnov, S Yu; Smirnov, Y; Smirnova, L N; Smirnova, O; Smith, B C; Smith, K M; Smizanska, M; Smolek, K; Snesarev, A A; Snidero, G; Snow, S W; Snow, J; Snyder, S; Sobie, R; Sodomka, J; Soffer, A; Soh, D A; Solans, C A; Solar, M; Solc, J; Soldatov, E Yu; Soldevila, U; Solfaroli Camillocci, E; Solodkov, A A; Solovyanov, O V; Solovyev, V; Soni, N; Sood, A; Sopko, V; Sopko, B; Sosebee, M; Soualah, R; Soueid, P; Soukharev, A; South, D; Spagnolo, S; Spanò, F; Spighi, R; Spigo, G; Spiwoks, R; Spousta, M; Spreitzer, T; Spurlock, B; St Denis, R D; Stahlman, J; Stamen, R; Stanecka, E; Stanek, R W; Stanescu, C; Stanescu-Bellu, M; Stanitzki, M M; Stapnes, S; Starchenko, E A; Stark, J; Staroba, P; Starovoitov, P; Staszewski, R; Staude, A; Stavina, P; Steele, G; Steinbach, P; Steinberg, P; Stekl, I; Stelzer, B; Stelzer, H J; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stenzel, H; Stern, S; Stewart, G A; Stillings, J A; Stockton, M C; Stoebe, M; Stoerig, K; Stoicea, G; Stonjek, S; Strachota, P; Stradling, A R; Straessner, A; Strandberg, J; Strandberg, S; Strandlie, A; Strang, M; Strauss, E; Strauss, M; Strizenec, P; Ströhmer, R; Strom, D M; Strong, J A; Stroynowski, R; Stugu, B; Stumer, I; Stupak, J; Sturm, P; Styles, N A; Su, D; Subramania, Hs; Subramaniam, R; Succurro, A; Sugaya, Y; Suhr, C; Suk, M; Sulin, V V; Sultansoy, S; Sumida, T; Sun, X; Sundermann, J E; Suruliz, K; Susinno, G; Sutton, M R; Suzuki, Y; Suzuki, Y; Svatos, M; Swedish, S; Swiatlowski, M; Sykora, I; Sykora, T; Ta, D; Tackmann, K; Taffard, A; Tafirout, R; Taiblum, N; Takahashi, Y; Takai, H; Takashima, R; Takeda, H; Takeshita, T; Takubo, Y; Talby, M; Talyshev, A; Tam, J Y C; Tamsett, M C; Tan, K G; Tanaka, J; Tanaka, R; Tanaka, S; Tanaka, S; Tanasijczuk, A J; Tani, K; Tannoury, N; Tapprogge, S; Tardif, D; Tarem, S; Tarrade, F; Tartarelli, G F; Tas, P; Tasevsky, M; Tassi, E; Tayalati, Y; Taylor, C; Taylor, F E; Taylor, G N; Taylor, W; Teinturier, M; Teischinger, F A; Teixeira Dias Castanheira, M; Teixeira-Dias, P; Temming, K K; Ten Kate, H; Teng, P K; Terada, S; Terashi, K; Terron, J; Testa, M; Teuscher, R J; Therhaag, J; Theveneaux-Pelzer, T; Thoma, S; Thomas, J P; Thompson, E N; Thompson, P D; Thompson, P D; Thompson, A S; Thomsen, L A; Thomson, E; Thomson, M; Thong, W M; Thun, R P; Tian, F; Tibbetts, M J; Tic, T; Tikhomirov, V O; Tikhonov, Y A; Timoshenko, S; Tiouchichine, E; Tipton, P; Tisserant, S; Todorov, T; Todorova-Nova, S; Toggerson, B; Tojo, J; Tokár, S; Tokushuku, K; Tollefson, K; Tomlinson, L; Tomoto, M; Tompkins, L; Toms, K; Tonoyan, A; Topfel, C; Topilin, N D; Torrence, E; Torres, H; Torró Pastor, E; Toth, J; Touchard, F; Tovey, D R; Tran, H L; Trefzger, T; Tremblet, L; Tricoli, A; Trigger, I M; Trincaz-Duvoid, S; Tripiana, M F; Triplett, N; Trischuk, W; Trocmé, B; Troncon, C; Trottier-McDonald, M; Trovatelli, M; True, P; Trzebinski, M; Trzupek, A; Tsarouchas, C; Tseng, J C-L; Tsiakiris, M; Tsiareshka, P V; Tsionou, D; Tsipolitis, G; Tsiskaridze, S; Tsiskaridze, V; Tskhadadze, E G; Tsukerman, I I; Tsulaia, V; Tsung, J-W; Tsuno, S; Tsybychev, D; Tua, A; Tudorache, A; Tudorache, V; Tuggle, J M; Turala, M; Turecek, D; Turk Cakir, I; Turra, R; Tuts, P M; Tykhonov, A; Tylmad, M; Tyndel, M; Tzanakos, G; Uchida, K; Ueda, I; Ueno, R; Ughetto, M; Ugland, M; Uhlenbrock, M; Ukegawa, F; Unal, G; Undrus, A; Unel, G; Ungaro, F C; Unno, Y; Urbaniec, D; Urquijo, P; Usai, G; Vacavant, L; Vacek, V; Vachon, B; Vahsen, S; Valencic, N; Valentinetti, S; Valero, A; Valery, L; Valkar, S; Valladolid Gallego, E; Vallecorsa, S; Valls Ferrer, J A; Van Berg, R; Van Der Deijl, P C; van der Geer, R; van der Graaf, H; Van Der Leeuw, R; van der Poel, E; van der Ster, D; van Eldik, N; van Gemmeren, P; Van Nieuwkoop, J; van Vulpen, I; Vanadia, M; Vandelli, W; Vaniachine, A; Vankov, P; Vannucci, F; Vari, R; Varnes, E W; Varol, T; Varouchas, D; Vartapetian, A; Varvell, K E; Vassilakopoulos, V I; Vazeille, F; Vazquez Schroeder, T; Veloso, F; Veneziano, S; Ventura, A; Ventura, D; Venturi, M; Venturi, N; Vercesi, V; Verducci, M; Verkerke, W; Vermeulen, J C; Vest, A; Vetterli, M C; Vichou, I; Vickey, T; Vickey Boeriu, O E; Viehhauser, G H A; Viel, S; Villa, M; Villaplana Perez, M; Vilucchi, E; Vincter, M G; Vinek, E; Vinogradov, V B; Virzi, J; Vitells, O; Viti, M; Vivarelli, I; Vives Vaque, F; Vlachos, S; Vladoiu, D; Vlasak, M; Vogel, A; Vokac, P; Volpi, G; Volpi, M; Volpini, G; von der Schmitt, H; von Radziewski, H; von Toerne, E; Vorobel, V; Vorwerk, V; Vos, M; Voss, R; Vossebeld, J H; Vranjes, N; Vranjes Milosavljevic, M; Vrba, V; Vreeswijk, M; Vu Anh, T; Vuillermet, R; Vukotic, I; Vykydal, Z; Wagner, W; Wagner, P; Wahlen, H; Wahrmund, S; Wakabayashi, J; Walch, S; Walder, J; Walker, R; Walkowiak, W; Wall, R; Waller, P; Walsh, B; Wang, C; Wang, H; Wang, H; Wang, J; Wang, J; Wang, K; Wang, R; Wang, S M; Wang, T; 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Wright, M; Wrona, B; Wu, S L; Wu, X; Wu, Y; Wulf, E; Wynne, B M; Xella, S; Xiao, M; Xie, S; Xu, C; Xu, D; Xu, L; Yabsley, B; Yacoob, S; Yamada, M; Yamaguchi, H; Yamaguchi, Y; Yamamoto, A; Yamamoto, K; Yamamoto, S; Yamamura, T; Yamanaka, T; Yamauchi, K; Yamazaki, T; Yamazaki, Y; Yan, Z; Yang, H; Yang, H; Yang, U K; Yang, Y; Yang, Z; Yanush, S; Yao, L; Yasu, Y; Yatsenko, E; Ye, J; Ye, S; Yen, A L; Yilmaz, M; Yoosoofmiya, R; Yorita, K; Yoshida, R; Yoshihara, K; Young, C; Young, C J S; Youssef, S; Yu, D; Yu, D R; Yu, J; Yu, J; Yuan, L; Yurkewicz, A; Zabinski, B; Zaidan, R; Zaitsev, A M; Zambito, S; Zanello, L; Zanzi, D; Zaytsev, A; Zeitnitz, C; Zeman, M; Zemla, A; Zenin, O; Ženiš, T; Zerwas, D; Zevi Della Porta, G; Zhang, D; Zhang, H; Zhang, J; Zhang, L; Zhang, X; Zhang, Z; Zhao, L; Zhao, Z; Zhemchugov, A; Zhong, J; Zhou, B; Zhou, N; Zhou, Y; Zhu, C G; Zhu, H; Zhu, J; Zhu, Y; Zhuang, X; Zhuravlov, V; Zibell, A; Zieminska, D; Zimin, N I; Zimmermann, R; Zimmermann, S; Zimmermann, S; Zinonos, Z; Ziolkowski, M; Zitoun, R; Živković, L; Zmouchko, V V; Zobernig, G; Zoccoli, A; Zur Nedden, M; Zutshi, V; Zwalinski, L

A measurement of splitting scales, as defined by the k T clustering algorithm, is presented for final states containing a W boson produced in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. The measurement is based on the full 2010 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 pb -1 which was collected using the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Cluster splitting scales are measured in events containing W bosons decaying to electrons or muons. The measurement comprises the four hardest splitting scales in a k T cluster sequence of the hadronic activity accompanying the W boson, and ratios of these splitting scales. Backgrounds such as multi-jet and top-quark-pair production are subtracted and the results are corrected for detector effects. Predictions from various Monte Carlo event generators at particle level are compared to the data. Overall, reasonable agreement is found with all generators, but larger deviations between the predictions and the data are evident in the soft regions of the splitting scales.

Improving healthcare systems' disclosures of large-scale adverse events: a Department of Veterans Affairs leadership, policymaker, research and stakeholder partnership.

PubMed

Elwy, A Rani; Bokhour, Barbara G; Maguire, Elizabeth M; Wagner, Todd H; Asch, Steven M; Gifford, Allen L; Gallagher, Thomas H; Durfee, Janet M; Martinello, Richard A; Schiffner, Susan; Jesse, Robert L

2014-12-01

The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) mandates disclosure of large-scale adverse events to patients, even if risk of harm is not clearly present. Concerns about past disclosures warranted further examination of the impact of this policy. Through a collaborative partnership between VA leaders, policymakers, researchers and stakeholders, the objective was to empirically identify critical aspects of disclosure processes as a first step towards improving future disclosures. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with participants at nine VA facilities where recent disclosures took place. Ninety-seven stakeholders participated in the interviews: 38 employees, 28 leaders (from facilities, regions and national offices), 27 Veteran patients and family members, and four congressional staff members. Facility and regional leaders were interviewed by telephone, followed by a two-day site visit where employees, patients and family members were interviewed face-to-face. National leaders and congressional staff also completed telephone interviews. Interviews were analyzed using rapid qualitative assessment processes. Themes were mapped to the stages of the Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication model: pre-crisis, initial event, maintenance, resolution and evaluation. Many areas for improvement during disclosure were identified, such as preparing facilities better (pre-crisis), creating rapid communications, modifying disclosure language, addressing perceptions of harm, reducing complexity, and seeking assistance from others (initial event), managing communication with other stakeholders (maintenance), minimizing effects on staff and improving trust (resolution), and addressing facilities' needs (evaluation). Through the partnership, five recommendations to improve disclosures during each stage of communication have been widely disseminated throughout the VA using non-academic strategies. Some improvements have been made; other recommendations will be addressed through implementation of a large-scale adverse event disclosure toolkit. These toolkit strategies will enable leaders to provide timely and transparent information to patients and families, while reducing the burden on employees and the healthcare system during these events.

The Generation of a Stochastic Flood Event Catalogue for Continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in the acquisition of spatiotemporal environmental data and improvements in computational capabilities has enabled the generation of large scale, even global, flood hazard layers which serve as a critical decision-making tool for a range of end users. However, these datasets are designed to indicate only the probability and depth of inundation at a given location and are unable to describe the likelihood of concurrent flooding across multiple sites.Recent research has highlighted that although the estimation of large, widespread flood events is of great value to flood mitigation and insurance industries, to date it has been difficult to deal with this spatial dependence structure in flood risk over relatively large scales. Many existing approaches have been restricted to empirical estimates of risk based on historic events, limiting their capability of assessing risk over the full range of plausible scenarios. Therefore, this research utilises a recently developed model-based approach to describe the multisite joint distribution of extreme river flows across continental USA river gauges. Given an extreme event at a site, the model characterises the likelihood neighbouring sites are also impacted. This information is used to simulate an ensemble of plausible synthetic extreme event footprints from which flood depths are extracted from an existing global flood hazard catalogue. Expected economic losses are then estimated by overlaying flood depths with national datasets defining asset locations, characteristics and depth damage functions. The ability of this approach to quantify probabilistic economic risk and rare threshold exceeding events is expected to be of value to those interested in the flood mitigation and insurance sectors.This work describes the methodological steps taken to create the flood loss catalogue over a national scale; highlights the uncertainty in the expected annual economic vulnerability within the USA from extreme river flows; and presents future developments to the modelling approach.

Experiences with hypercube operating system instrumentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, Daniel A.; Rudolph, David C.

1989-01-01

The difficulties in conceptualizing the interactions among a large number of processors make it difficult both to identify the sources of inefficiencies and to determine how a parallel program could be made more efficient. This paper describes an instrumentation system that can trace the execution of distributed memory parallel programs by recording the occurrence of parallel program events. The resulting event traces can be used to compile summary statistics that provide a global view of program performance. In addition, visualization tools permit the graphic display of event traces. Visual presentation of performance data is particularly useful, indeed, necessary for large-scale parallel computers; the enormous volume of performance data mandates visual display.

Statistical Model Applied to NetFlow for Network Intrusion Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proto, André; Alexandre, Leandro A.; Batista, Maira L.; Oliveira, Isabela L.; Cansian, Adriano M.

The computers and network services became presence guaranteed in several places. These characteristics resulted in the growth of illicit events and therefore the computers and networks security has become an essential point in any computing environment. Many methodologies were created to identify these events; however, with increasing of users and services on the Internet, many difficulties are found in trying to monitor a large network environment. This paper proposes a methodology for events detection in large-scale networks. The proposal approaches the anomaly detection using the NetFlow protocol, statistical methods and monitoring the environment in a best time for the application.

New PHOBOS results on event-by-event fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alver, B.; Back, B. B.; Baker, M. D.; Ballintijn, M.; Barton, D. S.; Betts, R. R.; Bickley, A. A.; Bindel, R.; Budzanowski, A.; Busza, W.; Carroll, A.; Chai, Z.; Chetluru, V.; Decowski, M. P.; García, E.; Gburek, T.; George, N.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gushue, S.; Halliwell, C.; Hamblen, J.; Heintzelman, G. A.; Henderson, C.; Harnarine, I.; Hofman, D. J.; Hollis, R. S.; Hołyński, R.; Holzman, B.; Iordanova, A.; Johnson, E.; Kane, J. L.; Khan, N.; Kucewicz, W.; Kulinich, P.; Kuo, C. M.; Li, W.; Lin, W. T.; Loizides, C.; Manly, S.; Mignerey, A. C.; Nouicer, R.; Olszewski, A.; Pak, R.; Park, I. C.; Reed, C.; Remsberg, L. P.; Reuter, M.; Richardson, E.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Rosenberg, L.; Sagerer, J.; Sarin, P.; Sawicki, P.; Sedykh, I.; Skulski, W.; Smith, C. E.; Stankiewicz, M. A.; Steinberg, P.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Sukhanov, A.; Szostak, A.; Tang, J.-L.; Tonjes, M. B.; Trzupek, A.; Vale, C.; van Nieuwenhuizen, G. J.; Vaurynovich, S. S.; Verdier, R.; Veres, G. I.; Walters, P.; Wenger, E.; Willhelm, D.; Wolfs, F. L. H.; Wosiek, B.; Woźniak, K.; Wuosmaa, A. H.; Wyngaardt, S.; Wysłouch, B.

2006-04-01

We present new results from the PHOBOS experiment at RHIC on event-by-event fluctuations of particle multiplicities and angular distributions in nucleus-nucleus collisions at RHIC. Our data for Au+Au collisions at √sNN = 200 GeV show that at a level of 10-4 or less, no rare, large-amplitude fluctuations in the total multiplicity distributions or the shape of the pseudorapidity distributions are observed. We however find significant short-range multiplicity correlations in these data, that can be described as particle production in clusters. In Cu+Cu collisions, we observe large final-state azimuthal anisotropies ν2. A common scaling behavior for Cu+Cu and Au+Au for these anisotropies emerges when fluctuations in the initial state geometry are taken into account.

Evaluation of interpolation techniques for the creation of gridded daily precipitation (1 × 1 km2); Cyprus, 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camera, Corrado; Bruggeman, Adriana; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Pashiardis, Stelios; Lange, Manfred A.

2014-01-01

High-resolution gridded daily data sets are essential for natural resource management and the analyses of climate changes and their effects. This study aims to evaluate the performance of 15 simple or complex interpolation techniques in reproducing daily precipitation at a resolution of 1 km2 over topographically complex areas. Methods are tested considering two different sets of observation densities and different rainfall amounts. We used rainfall data that were recorded at 74 and 145 observational stations, respectively, spread over the 5760 km2 of the Republic of Cyprus, in the Eastern Mediterranean. Regression analyses utilizing geographical copredictors and neighboring interpolation techniques were evaluated both in isolation and combined. Linear multiple regression (LMR) and geographically weighted regression methods (GWR) were tested. These included a step-wise selection of covariables, as well as inverse distance weighting (IDW), kriging, and 3D-thin plate splines (TPS). The relative rank of the different techniques changes with different station density and rainfall amounts. Our results indicate that TPS performs well for low station density and large-scale events and also when coupled with regression models. It performs poorly for high station density. The opposite is observed when using IDW. Simple IDW performs best for local events, while a combination of step-wise GWR and IDW proves to be the best method for large-scale events and high station density. This study indicates that the use of step-wise regression with a variable set of geographic parameters can improve the interpolation of large-scale events because it facilitates the representation of local climate dynamics.

Association of Stressful Life Events with Psychological Problems: A Large-Scale Community-Based Study Using Grouped Outcomes Latent Factor Regression with Latent Predictors

PubMed Central

Hassanzadeh, Akbar; Heidari, Zahra; Hassanzadeh Keshteli, Ammar; Afshar, Hamid

2017-01-01

Objective The current study is aimed at investigating the association between stressful life events and psychological problems in a large sample of Iranian adults. Method In a cross-sectional large-scale community-based study, 4763 Iranian adults, living in Isfahan, Iran, were investigated. Grouped outcomes latent factor regression on latent predictors was used for modeling the association of psychological problems (depression, anxiety, and psychological distress), measured by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), as the grouped outcomes, and stressful life events, measured by a self-administered stressful life events (SLEs) questionnaire, as the latent predictors. Results The results showed that the personal stressors domain has significant positive association with psychological distress (β = 0.19), anxiety (β = 0.25), depression (β = 0.15), and their collective profile score (β = 0.20), with greater associations in females (β = 0.28) than in males (β = 0.13) (all P < 0.001). In addition, in the adjusted models, the regression coefficients for the association of social stressors domain and psychological problems profile score were 0.37, 0.35, and 0.46 in total sample, males, and females, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusion Results of our study indicated that different stressors, particularly those socioeconomic related, have an effective impact on psychological problems. It is important to consider the social and cultural background of a population for managing the stressors as an effective approach for preventing and reducing the destructive burden of psychological problems. PMID:29312459

Memory effect in M ≥ 6 earthquakes of South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jeen-Hwa

2013-07-01

The M ≥ 6 earthquakes occurred in the South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901-2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Some aspects of large-scale travelling ionospheric disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, G. G.

1992-06-01

On two occasions the speeds and directions of travel of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LS-TIDs) following geomagnetic substorm onsets, have been calculated for the propagation of these disturbances in both hemispheres of the earth. N(h) analyses have been used to produce height change profiles at a fixed frequency from which time shifts between stations (used for the speed and direction-of-travel values) have been calculated. Fixed-frequency phase path measurements at Bribie Island for two events reveal wavetrains with periodicities around 17 min associated with these disturbances. Another event recorded a periodicity of 19 min. Also, for two of the events additional periodicities around 30 min were found. These wavetrains along with the macroscale height changes and electron density depletions associated with these LS-TIDs are essentially the same as the ionospheric structure changes observed during the passage of night-time medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MS-TIDs). However, unlike these MS-TIDs, the LS-TIDs are generally not associated with the recording of spread-F on ionograms. Possible reasons for this difference are discussed as well as the special conditions which probably prevail on the few occasions when spread-F is associated with LS-TIDs.

Proceedings of the DICE THROW Symposium 21-23 June 1977. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-07-01

different scaled ANFO events to insure yield scalability. Phase 1 of the program consisted of a series of one-pound events to examine cratering and...characterization of a 500-ton-equivalent event. A large number of agencies were involved in different facets of the development program. Probably most...charge geometry observed in the 1000-pound series, supported the observations from the Phase 1 program. Differences were observed in the fireball

A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

PubMed

Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

2017-07-11

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

Construction of Penrose Diagrams for Dynamic Black Holes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Beth A.; Lindesay, James

2008-01-01

A set of Penrose diagrams is constructed in order to examine the large-scale causal structure of black holes with dynamic horizons. Coordinate dependencies of significant features, such as the event horizon and radial mass scale, are demonstrated on the diagrams. Unlike in static Schwarzschild geometries, the radial mass scale is clearly seen to differ from the horizon. Trajectories for photons near the horizon are briefly discussed.

Nearshore circulation on a sea breeze dominated beach during intense wind events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Puleo, Jack A.; DiCosmo, Nick; Allende-Arandía, Ma. Eugenia; Chardón-Maldonado, Patricia; López, José; Figueroa-Espinoza, Bernardo; de Alegria-Arzaburu, Amaia Ruiz; Figlus, Jens; Roberts Briggs, Tiffany M.; de la Roza, Jacobo; Candela, Julio

2017-12-01

A field experiment was conducted on the northern Yucatan coast from April 1 to April 12, 2014 to investigate the role of intense wind events on coastal circulation from the inner shelf to the swash zone. The study area is characterized by a micro-tidal environment, low-energy wave conditions, and a wide and shallow continental shelf. Furthermore, easterly trade winds, local breezes, and synoptic-scale events, associated with the passage of cold-fronts known as Nortes, are ubiquitous in this region. Currents were measured concurrently at different cross-shore locations during both local and synoptic-scale intense wind events to investigate the influence of different forcing mechanisms (i.e., large-scale currents, winds, tides, and waves) on the nearshore circulation. Field observations revealed that nearshore circulation across the shelf is predominantly alongshore-directed (westward) during intense winds. However, the mechanisms responsible for driving instantaneous spatial and temporal current variability depend on the weather conditions and the across-shelf location. During local strong sea breeze events (W > 10 m s-1 from the NE) occurring during spring tide, westward circulation is controlled by the tides, wind, and waves at the inner-shelf, shallow waters, and inside the surf/swash zone, respectively. The nearshore circulation is relaxed during intense land breeze events (W ≈ 9 m s-1 from the SE) associated with the low atmospheric pressure system that preceded a Norte event. During the Norte event (Wmax≈ 15 m s-1 from the NNW), westward circulation dominated outside the surf zone and was correlated to the Yucatan Current, whereas wave breaking forces eastward currents inside the surf/swash zone. The latter finding implies the existence of large alongshore velocity shear at the offshore edge of the surf zone during the Norte event, which enhances mixing between the surf zone and the inner shelf. These findings suggest that both sea breezes and Nortes play an important role in sediment and pollutant transport along/across the nearshore of the Yucatan shelf.

Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

PubMed Central

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

2012-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orrhede, Anna Karin

1990-01-01

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

Social Media Visual Analytics for Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diakopoulos, Nicholas; Naaman, Mor; Yazdani, Tayebeh; Kivran-Swaine, Funda

For large-scale multimedia events such as televised debates and speeches, the amount of content on social media channels such as Facebook or Twitter can easily become overwhelming, yet still contain information that may aid and augment understanding of the multimedia content via individual social media items, or aggregate information from the crowd's response. In this work we discuss this opportunity in the context of a social media visual analytic tool, Vox Civitas, designed to help journalists, media professionals, or other researchers make sense of large-scale aggregations of social media content around multimedia broadcast events. We discuss the design of the tool, present and evaluate the text analysis techniques used to enable the presentation, and detail the visual and interaction design. We provide an exploratory evaluation based on a user study in which journalists interacted with the system to analyze and report on a dataset of over one 100 000 Twitter messages collected during the broadcast of the U.S. State of the Union presidential address in 2010.

Simulations of cloud-radiation interaction using large-scale forcing derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO northern sounding array

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shuguang; Sobel, Adam H.; Fridlind, Ann; ...

2015-09-25

The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large scale forcing dataset derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly-periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. simulatedmore » cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-Polka radar and satellite observations. Furthermore, to accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single moment (1M) and double moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested.« less

Relationships between Event-Related Potentials and Behavioral and Scholastic Measures of Reading Ability: A Large-Scale, Cross-Sectional Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khalifian, Negin; Stites, Mallory C.; Laszlo, Sarah

2016-01-01

In the cognitive, computational, neuropsychological, and educational literatures, it is established that children approach text in unique ways, and that even adult readers can differ in the strategies they bring to reading. In the developmental event-related potential (ERP) literature, however, children with differing degrees of reading ability…

On the Relationality of Centers, Peripheries and Interactional Regimes: Translanguaging in a Community Interpreting Event

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baynham, Mike; Hanušová, Jolana

2017-01-01

In this paper we discuss a multilingual interactional event that involves both interpreting and literacy work, part of a large scale study on translanguaging in superdiverse urban settings. In the first part of the interaction, the center/periphery dynamic is played out in what might be called "contested translanguaging" between Standard…

The Age Parameters of the Starting Demographic Events across Russian Generations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitrofanova, E. S.

2016-01-01

This article presents comparisons of the ages and facts of starting demographic events in Russia based on the findings of three large-scale surveys: the European Social Survey, 2006; the Generations and Gender Survey, 2004, 2007, and 2011; and Person, Family, Society, 2013. This study focuses on the intergenerational and gender differences in the…

A New Event Builder for CMS Run II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albertsson, K.; Andre, J.-M.; Andronidis, A.; Behrens, U.; Branson, J.; Chaze, O.; Cittolin, S.; Darlea, G.-L.; Deldicque, C.; Dobson, M.; Dupont, A.; Erhan, S.; Gigi, D.; Glege, F.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Hegeman, J.; Holzner, A.; Jimenez-Estupiñán, R.; Masetti, L.; Meijers, F.; Meschi, E.; Mommsen, R. K.; Morovic, S.; Nunez-Barranco-Fernandez, C.; O'Dell, V.; Orsini, L.; Paus, C.; Petrucci, A.; Pieri, M.; Racz, A.; Roberts, P.; Sakulin, H.; Schwick, C.; Stieger, B.; Sumorok, K.; Veverka, J.; Zaza, S.; Zejdl, P.

2015-12-01

The data acquisition system (DAQ) of the CMS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) assembles events at a rate of 100 kHz, transporting event data at an aggregate throughput of 100GB/s to the high-level trigger (HLT) farm. The DAQ system has been redesigned during the LHC shutdown in 2013/14. The new DAQ architecture is based on state-of-the-art network technologies for the event building. For the data concentration, 10/40 Gbps Ethernet technologies are used together with a reduced TCP/IP protocol implemented in FPGA for a reliable transport between custom electronics and commercial computing hardware. A 56 Gbps Infiniband FDR CLOS network has been chosen for the event builder. This paper discusses the software design, protocols, and optimizations for exploiting the hardware capabilities. We present performance measurements from small-scale prototypes and from the full-scale production system.

A new event builder for CMS Run II

DOE PAGES

Albertsson, K.; Andre, J-M; Andronidis, A.; ...

2015-12-23

The data acquisition system (DAQ) of the CMS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) assembles events at a rate of 100 kHz, transporting event data at an aggregate throughput of 100 GB/s to the high-level trigger (HLT) farm. The DAQ system has been redesigned during the LHC shutdown in 2013/14. The new DAQ architecture is based on state-of-the-art network technologies for the event building. For the data concentration, 10/40 Gbps Ethernet technologies are used together with a reduced TCP/IP protocol implemented in FPGA for a reliable transport between custom electronics and commercial computing hardware. A 56 Gbps Innibandmore » FDR CLOS network has been chosen for the event builder. This paper discusses the software design, protocols, and optimizations for exploiting the hardware capabilities. In conclusion, ee present performance measurements from small-scale prototypes and from the full-scale production system.« less

Investigation of relationships between parameters of solar nano-flares and solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safari, Hossein; Javaherian, Mohsen; Kaki, Bardia

2016-07-01

Solar flares are one of the important coronal events which are originated in solar magnetic activity. They release lots of energy during the interstellar medium, right after the trigger. Flare prediction can play main role in avoiding eventual damages on the Earth. Here, to interpret solar large-scale events (e.g., flares), we investigate relationships between small-scale events (nano-flares) and large-scale events (e.g., flares). In our method, by using simulations of nano-flares based on Monte Carlo method, the intensity time series of nano-flares are simulated. Then, the solar full disk images taken at 171 angstrom recorded by SDO/AIA are employed. Some parts of the solar disk (quiet Sun (QS), coronal holes (CHs), and active regions (ARs)) are cropped and the time series of these regions are extracted. To compare the simulated intensity time series of nano-flares with the intensity time series of real data extracted from different parts of the Sun, the artificial neural networks is employed. Therefore, we are able to extract physical parameters of nano-flares like both kick and decay rate lifetime, and the power of their power-law distributions. The procedure of variations in the power value of power-law distributions within QS, CH is similar to AR. Thus, by observing the small part of the Sun, we can follow the procedure of solar activity.

Upscaling Bedrock Erosion Laws from the Point to the Patch and from the Event to the Year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, A. R.; Turowski, J. M.

2017-12-01

Bedrock erosion depends on the interactions between the bedload tools and cover effects. However, it is unclear (i) how well long-term calibrations of existing erosion models can predict individual erosion events, and (ii) whether at-a-point event calibrations can be spatio-temporally upscaled. Here, we evaluate the performance of at-a-point calibrated erosion models by scaling their erosional efficiency coefficients (k-factors). We use continuous measurements of water discharge and bedload transport at 1- minute resolution, supplemented by repeated sub-millimeter-resolution spatial erosion surveys of a concrete slab in a small Swiss pre-alpine stream. Our results confirm the linear dependency of bedrock abrasion on sediment flux under sediment-starved conditions integrated over space (the 0.2m2 slab surface) and time (20 months). The predictive quality of the commonly applied unit stream power (USP) model is strongly susceptible to bedload transport distribution, whereas the bedload-dependent tools-only model yields more reasonable results. Applying the fitted mean model k-factors to a 16-year, 1-minute-resolution time series of discharge and bedload transport shows that the excess USP model EUSP (which includes a discharge threshold for bedload transport) generally predicts cumulative erosion reasonably well. For exceptional events, however, the EUSP model fails to predict the resulting large erosion rates. Hence, for sediment-starved conditions, event-based erosion model calibration can be applied over larger spatio-temporal scales with stationary k-factors, if a discharge threshold for sediment transport is taken into account. The EUSP model is a surrogate to predict long-term erosion given average erosive events, but fails to capture large event erosion rates. Consequently, the erosion tendency during average erosive events is generally matched by overall EUSP modelling, but large and highly erosive events are underpredicted. In such, water discharge does not account for the non-linearity in sediment availability (e.g., due to sudden release of interlocked sediment from the streambed) and in grain impact energies on the bedrock (i.e., large grain impacts dominate total erosion), which are the main drivers of a bedrock channel's morphology.

A study of geomagnetic storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, V. L.

1975-01-01

Twenty-one geomagnetic storm events during 1966 and 1970 were studied by using simultaneous interplanetary magnetic field and plasma parameters. Explorer 33 and 35 field and plasma data were analyzed on large-scale (hourly) and small-scale (3 min.) during the time interval coincident with initial phase of the geomagnetic storms. The solar-ecliptic Bz component turns southward at the end of the initial phase, thus triggering the main phase decrease in Dst geomagnetic field. When the Bz is already negative, its value becomes further negative. The By component also shows large fluctuations along with Bz. When there are no clear changes in the Bz component, the By shows abrupt changes at the main phase onet. On the small-scale behavior of the magnetic field and electric field (E=-VxB) studied in details for the three events, it is found that the field fluctuations in By, Bz and Ey and Ez are present in the initial phase. These fluctuations become larger just before the main phase of the storm begins. In the largescale behavior field remains quiet because the small scale variations are averaged out.

Earthquakes in the Laboratory: Continuum-Granular Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ecke, Robert; Geller, Drew; Ward, Carl; Backhaus, Scott

2013-03-01

Earthquakes in nature feature large tectonic plate motion at large scales of 10-100 km and local properties of the earth on the scale of the rupture width, of the order of meters. Fault gouge often fills the gap between the large slipping plates and may play an important role in the nature and dynamics of earthquake events. We have constructed a laboratory scale experiment that represents a similitude scale model of this general earthquake description. Two photo-elastic plates (50 cm x 25 cm x 1 cm) confine approximately 3000 bi-disperse nylon rods (diameters 0.12 and 0.16 cm, height 1 cm) in a gap of approximately 1 cm. The plates are held rigidly along their outer edges with one held fixed while the other edge is driven at constant speed over a range of about 5 cm. The local stresses exerted on the plates are measured using their photo-elastic response, the local relative motions of the plates, i.e., the local strains, are determined by the relative motion of small ball bearings attached to the top surface, and the configurations of the nylon rods are investigated using particle tracking tools. We find that this system has properties similar to real earthquakes and are exploring these ``lab-quake'' events with the quantitative tools we have developed.

Eyjafjallajökull and 9/11: The Impact of Large-Scale Disasters on Worldwide Mobility

PubMed Central

Woolley-Meza, Olivia; Grady, Daniel; Thiemann, Christian; Bagrow, James P.; Brockmann, Dirk

2013-01-01

Large-scale disasters that interfere with globalized socio-technical infrastructure, such as mobility and transportation networks, trigger high socio-economic costs. Although the origin of such events is often geographically confined, their impact reverberates through entire networks in ways that are poorly understood, difficult to assess, and even more difficult to predict. We investigate how the eruption of volcano Eyjafjallajökull, the September 11th terrorist attacks, and geographical disruptions in general interfere with worldwide mobility. To do this we track changes in effective distance in the worldwide air transportation network from the perspective of individual airports. We find that universal features exist across these events: airport susceptibilities to regional disruptions follow similar, strongly heterogeneous distributions that lack a scale. On the other hand, airports are more uniformly susceptible to attacks that target the most important hubs in the network, exhibiting a well-defined scale. The statistical behavior of susceptibility can be characterized by a single scaling exponent. Using scaling arguments that capture the interplay between individual airport characteristics and the structural properties of routes we can recover the exponent for all types of disruption. We find that the same mechanisms responsible for efficient passenger flow may also keep the system in a vulnerable state. Our approach can be applied to understand the impact of large, correlated disruptions in financial systems, ecosystems and other systems with a complex interaction structure between heterogeneous components. PMID:23950904

Evolution of Precipitation Structure During the November DYNAMO MJO Event: Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison and Cross Validation Using Radar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong

2018-04-01

Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.

How well could existing sensors detect the deployment of a solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering effort?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurd, Alan J.

2016-04-29

While the stated reason for asking this question is “to understand better our ability to warn policy makers in the unlikely event of an unanticipated SRM geoengineering deployment or large-scale field experiment”, my colleagues and I felt that motives would be important context because the scale of any meaningful SRM deployment would be so large that covert deployment seems impossible. However, several motives emerged that suggest a less-than-global effort might be important.

Large-scale dynamos in rapidly rotating plane layer convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bushby, P. J.; Käpylä, P. J.; Masada, Y.; Brandenburg, A.; Favier, B.; Guervilly, C.; Käpylä, M. J.

2018-05-01

Context. Convectively driven flows play a crucial role in the dynamo processes that are responsible for producing magnetic activity in stars and planets. It is still not fully understood why many astrophysical magnetic fields have a significant large-scale component. Aims: Our aim is to investigate the dynamo properties of compressible convection in a rapidly rotating Cartesian domain, focusing upon a parameter regime in which the underlying hydrodynamic flow is known to be unstable to a large-scale vortex instability. Methods: The governing equations of three-dimensional non-linear magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) are solved numerically. Different numerical schemes are compared and we propose a possible benchmark case for other similar codes. Results: In keeping with previous related studies, we find that convection in this parameter regime can drive a large-scale dynamo. The components of the mean horizontal magnetic field oscillate, leading to a continuous overall rotation of the mean field. Whilst the large-scale vortex instability dominates the early evolution of the system, the large-scale vortex is suppressed by the magnetic field and makes a negligible contribution to the mean electromotive force that is responsible for driving the large-scale dynamo. The cycle period of the dynamo is comparable to the ohmic decay time, with longer cycles for dynamos in convective systems that are closer to onset. In these particular simulations, large-scale dynamo action is found only when vertical magnetic field boundary conditions are adopted at the upper and lower boundaries. Strongly modulated large-scale dynamos are found at higher Rayleigh numbers, with periods of reduced activity (grand minima-like events) occurring during transient phases in which the large-scale vortex temporarily re-establishes itself, before being suppressed again by the magnetic field.

Synchronization Of Parallel Discrete Event Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinman, Jeffrey S.

1992-01-01

Adaptive, parallel, discrete-event-simulation-synchronization algorithm, Breathing Time Buckets, developed in Synchronous Parallel Environment for Emulation and Discrete Event Simulation (SPEEDES) operating system. Algorithm allows parallel simulations to process events optimistically in fluctuating time cycles that naturally adapt while simulation in progress. Combines best of optimistic and conservative synchronization strategies while avoiding major disadvantages. Algorithm processes events optimistically in time cycles adapting while simulation in progress. Well suited for modeling communication networks, for large-scale war games, for simulated flights of aircraft, for simulations of computer equipment, for mathematical modeling, for interactive engineering simulations, and for depictions of flows of information.

Predicting coral bleaching in response to environmental stressors using 8 years of global-scale data.

PubMed

Yee, Susan Harrell; Barron, Mace G

2010-02-01

Coral reefs have experienced extensive mortality over the past few decades as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. There is an increasing realization that other environmental factors, including water mixing, solar radiation, water depth, and water clarity, interact with temperature to either exacerbate bleaching or protect coral from mass bleaching. The relative contribution of these factors to variability in mass bleaching at a global scale has not been quantified, but can provide insights when making large-scale predictions of mass bleaching events. Using data from 708 bleaching surveys across the globe, a framework was developed to predict the probability of moderate or severe bleaching as a function of key environmental variables derived from global-scale remote-sensing data. The ability of models to explain spatial and temporal variability in mass bleaching events was quantified. Results indicated approximately 20% improved accuracy of predictions of bleaching when solar radiation and water mixing, in addition to elevated temperature, were incorporated into models, but predictive accuracy was variable among regions. Results provide insights into the effects of environmental parameters on bleaching at a global scale.

Analyses of transcriptome sequences reveal multiple ancient large-scale duplication events in the ancestor of Sphagnopsida (Bryophyta).

PubMed

Devos, Nicolas; Szövényi, Péter; Weston, David J; Rothfels, Carl J; Johnson, Matthew G; Shaw, A Jonathan

2016-07-01

The goal of this research was to investigate whether there has been a whole-genome duplication (WGD) in the ancestry of Sphagnum (peatmoss) or the class Sphagnopsida, and to determine if the timing of any such duplication(s) and patterns of paralog retention could help explain the rapid radiation and current ecological dominance of peatmosses. RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data were generated for nine taxa in Sphagnopsida (Bryophyta). Analyses of frequency plots for synonymous substitutions per synonymous site (Ks ) between paralogous gene pairs and reconciliation of 578 gene trees were conducted to assess evidence of large-scale or genome-wide duplication events in each transcriptome. Both Ks frequency plots and gene tree-based analyses indicate multiple duplication events in the history of the Sphagnopsida. The most recent WGD event predates divergence of Sphagnum from the two other genera of Sphagnopsida. Duplicate retention is highly variable across species, which might be best explained by local adaptation. Our analyses indicate that the last WGD could have been an important factor underlying the diversification of peatmosses and facilitated their rise to ecological dominance in peatlands. The timing of the duplication events and their significance in the evolutionary history of peat mosses are discussed. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

A large-scale dataset of solar event reports from automated feature recognition modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuh, Michael A.; Angryk, Rafal A.; Martens, Petrus C.

2016-05-01

The massive repository of images of the Sun captured by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission has ushered in the era of Big Data for Solar Physics. In this work, we investigate the entire public collection of events reported to the Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase (HEK) from automated solar feature recognition modules operated by the SDO Feature Finding Team (FFT). With the SDO mission recently surpassing five years of operations, and over 280,000 event reports for seven types of solar phenomena, we present the broadest and most comprehensive large-scale dataset of the SDO FFT modules to date. We also present numerous statistics on these modules, providing valuable contextual information for better understanding and validating of the individual event reports and the entire dataset as a whole. After extensive data cleaning through exploratory data analysis, we highlight several opportunities for knowledge discovery from data (KDD). Through these important prerequisite analyses presented here, the results of KDD from Solar Big Data will be overall more reliable and better understood. As the SDO mission remains operational over the coming years, these datasets will continue to grow in size and value. Future versions of this dataset will be analyzed in the general framework established in this work and maintained publicly online for easy access by the community.

Development of Dynamic Flow Field Pressure Probes Suitable for Use in Large Scale Supersonic Wind Tunnels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porro, A. Robert

2000-01-01

A series of dynamic flow field pressure probes were developed for use in large-scale supersonic wind tunnels at NASA Glenn Research Center. These flow field probes include pitot, static, and five-hole conical pressure probes that are capable of capturing fast acting flow field pressure transients that occur on a millisecond time scale. The pitot and static probes can be used to determine local Mach number time histories during a transient event. The five-hole conical pressure probes are used primarily to determine local flow angularity, but can also determine local Mach number. These probes were designed, developed, and tested at the NASA Glenn Research Center. They were also used in a NASA Glenn 10-by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel (SWT) test program where they successfully acquired flow field pressure data in the vicinity of a propulsion system during an engine compressor staff and inlet unstart transient event. Details of the design, development, and subsequent use of these probes are discussed in this report.

Intra-seasonal Characteristics of Wintertime Extreme Cold Events over South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Taewon; Jeong, Jeehoon; Choi, Jahyun

2017-04-01

The present study reveals the changes in the characteristics of extreme cold events over South Korea for boreal winter (November to March) in terms of the intra-seasonal variability of frequency, duration, and atmospheric circulation pattern. Influences of large-scale variabilities such as the Siberian High activity, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on extreme cold events are also investigated. In the early and the late of the winter during November and March, the upper-tropospheric wave-train for a life-cycle of the extreme cold events tends to pass quickly over East Asia. In addition, compared with the other months, the intensity of the Siberian High is weaker and the occurrences of strong negative AO are less frequent. It lead to events with weak amplitude and short duration. On the other hand, the amplified Siberian High and the strong negative AO occur more frequently in the mid of the winter from December to February. The extreme cold events are mainly characterized by a well-organized anticyclonic blocking around the Ural Mountain and the Subarctic. These large-scale circulation makes the extreme cold events for the midwinter last long with strong amplitude. The MJO phases 2-3 which provide a suitable condition for the amplification of extreme cold events occur frequently for November to January when the frequencies are more than twice those for February and March. While the extreme cold events during March have the least frequency, the weakest amplitude, and the shortest duration due to weak impacts of the abovementioned factors, the strong activities of the factors for January force the extreme cold events to be the most frequent, the strongest, and the longest among the boreal winter. Keywords extreme cold event, wave-train, blocking, Siberian High, AO, MJO

Characterizing the cancer genome in lung adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Weir, Barbara A.; Woo, Michele S.; Getz, Gad; Perner, Sven; Ding, Li; Beroukhim, Rameen; Lin, William M.; Province, Michael A.; Kraja, Aldi; Johnson, Laura A.; Shah, Kinjal; Sato, Mitsuo; Thomas, Roman K.; Barletta, Justine A.; Borecki, Ingrid B.; Broderick, Stephen; Chang, Andrew C.; Chiang, Derek Y.; Chirieac, Lucian R.; Cho, Jeonghee; Fujii, Yoshitaka; Gazdar, Adi F.; Giordano, Thomas; Greulich, Heidi; Hanna, Megan; Johnson, Bruce E.; Kris, Mark G.; Lash, Alex; Lin, Ling; Lindeman, Neal; Mardis, Elaine R.; McPherson, John D.; Minna, John D.; Morgan, Margaret B.; Nadel, Mark; Orringer, Mark B.; Osborne, John R.; Ozenberger, Brad; Ramos, Alex H.; Robinson, James; Roth, Jack A.; Rusch, Valerie; Sasaki, Hidefumi; Shepherd, Frances; Sougnez, Carrie; Spitz, Margaret R.; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Twomey, David; Verhaak, Roel G. W.; Weinstock, George M.; Wheeler, David A.; Winckler, Wendy; Yoshizawa, Akihiko; Yu, Soyoung; Zakowski, Maureen F.; Zhang, Qunyuan; Beer, David G.; Wistuba, Ignacio I.; Watson, Mark A.; Garraway, Levi A.; Ladanyi, Marc; Travis, William D.; Pao, William; Rubin, Mark A.; Gabriel, Stacey B.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Varmus, Harold E.; Wilson, Richard K.; Lander, Eric S.; Meyerson, Matthew

2008-01-01

Somatic alterations in cellular DNA underlie almost all human cancers1. The prospect of targeted therapies2 and the development of high-resolution, genome-wide approaches3–8 are now spurring systematic efforts to characterize cancer genomes. Here we report a large-scale project to characterize copy-number alterations in primary lung adenocarcinomas. By analysis of a large collection of tumors (n = 371) using dense single nucleotide polymorphism arrays, we identify a total of 57 significantly recurrent events. We find that 26 of 39 autosomal chromosome arms show consistent large-scale copy-number gain or loss, of which only a handful have been linked to a specific gene. We also identify 31 recurrent focal events, including 24 amplifications and 7 homozygous deletions. Only six of these focal events are currently associated with known mutations in lung carcinomas. The most common event, amplification of chromosome 14q13.3, is found in ~12% of samples. On the basis of genomic and functional analyses, we identify NKX2-1 (NK2 homeobox 1, also called TITF1), which lies in the minimal 14q13.3 amplification interval and encodes a lineage-specific transcription factor, as a novel candidate proto-oncogene involved in a significant fraction of lung adenocarcinomas. More generally, our results indicate that many of the genes that are involved in lung adenocarcinoma remain to be discovered. PMID:17982442

Large-Scale Event Extraction from Literature with Multi-Level Gene Normalization

PubMed Central

Wei, Chih-Hsuan; Hakala, Kai; Pyysalo, Sampo; Ananiadou, Sophia; Kao, Hung-Yu; Lu, Zhiyong; Salakoski, Tapio; Van de Peer, Yves; Ginter, Filip

2013-01-01

Text mining for the life sciences aims to aid database curation, knowledge summarization and information retrieval through the automated processing of biomedical texts. To provide comprehensive coverage and enable full integration with existing biomolecular database records, it is crucial that text mining tools scale up to millions of articles and that their analyses can be unambiguously linked to information recorded in resources such as UniProt, KEGG, BioGRID and NCBI databases. In this study, we investigate how fully automated text mining of complex biomolecular events can be augmented with a normalization strategy that identifies biological concepts in text, mapping them to identifiers at varying levels of granularity, ranging from canonicalized symbols to unique gene and proteins and broad gene families. To this end, we have combined two state-of-the-art text mining components, previously evaluated on two community-wide challenges, and have extended and improved upon these methods by exploiting their complementary nature. Using these systems, we perform normalization and event extraction to create a large-scale resource that is publicly available, unique in semantic scope, and covers all 21.9 million PubMed abstracts and 460 thousand PubMed Central open access full-text articles. This dataset contains 40 million biomolecular events involving 76 million gene/protein mentions, linked to 122 thousand distinct genes from 5032 species across the full taxonomic tree. Detailed evaluations and analyses reveal promising results for application of this data in database and pathway curation efforts. The main software components used in this study are released under an open-source license. Further, the resulting dataset is freely accessible through a novel API, providing programmatic and customized access (http://www.evexdb.org/api/v001/). Finally, to allow for large-scale bioinformatic analyses, the entire resource is available for bulk download from http://evexdb.org/download/, under the Creative Commons – Attribution – Share Alike (CC BY-SA) license. PMID:23613707

Historical drought patterns over Canada and their teleconnections with large-scale climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asong, Zilefac Elvis; Wheater, Howard Simon; Bonsal, Barrie; Razavi, Saman; Kurkute, Sopan

2018-06-01

Drought is a recurring extreme climate event and among the most costly natural disasters in the world. This is particularly true over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon with impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, industry, aquatic ecosystems, and health. However, nationwide drought assessments are currently lacking and impacted by limited ground-based observations. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of large-scale teleconnections. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months, 6 months from April to September, and 12 months from October to September) applied to different gridded monthly data sets for the period 1950-2013. The Mann-Kendall test, rotated empirical orthogonal function, continuous wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analyses are used, respectively, to investigate the trend, spatio-temporal patterns, periodicity, and teleconnectivity of drought events. Results indicate that southern (northern) parts of the country experienced significant trends towards drier (wetter) conditions although substantial variability exists. Two spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts were identified - the Canadian Prairies and northern central Canada. The analyses also revealed the presence of a dominant periodicity of between 8 and 32 months in the Prairie region and between 8 and 40 months in the northern central region. These cycles of low-frequency variability are found to be associated principally with the Pacific-North American (PNA) and Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) relative to other considered large-scale climate indices. This study is the first of its kind to identify dominant periodicities in drought variability over the whole of Canada in terms of when the drought events occur, their duration, and how often they occur.

Rapid flood loss estimation for large scale floods in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Merz, Bruno

2013-04-01

Rapid evaluations of flood events are needed for efficient responses both in emergency management and financial appraisal. Beyond that, closely monitoring and documenting the formation and development of flood events and their impacts allows for an improved understanding and in depth analyses of the interplay between meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and societal causes leading to flood damage. This contribution focuses on the development of a methodology for the rapid assessment of flood events. In the first place, the focus is on the prediction of damage to residential buildings caused by large scale floods in Germany. For this purpose an operational flood event analysis system is developed. This system has basic spatial thematic data available and supports data capturing about the current flood situation. This includes the retrieval of online gauge data and the integration of remote sensing data. Further, it provides functionalities to evaluate the current flood situation, to assess the hazard extent and intensity and to estimate the current flood impact using the flood loss estimation model FLEMOps+r. The operation of the flood event analysis system will be demonstrated for the past flood event from January 2011 with a focus on the Elbe/Saale region. On this grounds, further requirements and potential for improving the information basis as for instance by including hydrological and /or hydraulic model results as well as information from social sensors will be discussed.

Response of human populations to large-scale emergencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagrow, James; Wang, Dashun; Barabási, Albert-László

2010-03-01

Until recently, little quantitative data regarding collective human behavior during dangerous events such as bombings and riots have been available, despite its importance for emergency management, safety and urban planning. Understanding how populations react to danger is critical for prediction, detection and intervention strategies. Using a large telecommunications dataset, we study for the first time the spatiotemporal, social and demographic response properties of people during several disasters, including a bombing, a city-wide power outage, and an earthquake. Call activity rapidly increases after an event and we find that, when faced with a truly life-threatening emergency, information rapidly propagates through a population's social network. Other events, such as sports games, do not exhibit this propagation.

Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Deokjae; Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Jeho; Kahng, B.

2015-02-01

Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

Lahar hazard assessment in the southern drainage system of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador: Results from multiscale lahar simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pistolesi, Marco; Cioni, Raffaello; Rosi, Mauro; Aguilera, Eduardo

2014-02-01

The ice-capped Cotopaxi volcano is known worldwide for the large-scale, catastrophic lahars that have occurred in connection with historical explosive eruptions. The most recent large-scale lahar event occurred in 1877 when scoria flows partially melted ice and snow of the summit glacier, generating debris flows that severely impacted all the river valleys originating from the volcano. The 1877 lahars have been considered in the recent years as a maximum expected event to define the hazard associated to lahar generation at Cotopaxi. Conversely, recent field-based studies have shown that such debris flows have occurred several times during the last 800 years of activity at Cotopaxi, and that the scale of lahars has been variable, including events much larger than that of 1877. Despite a rapid retreat of the summit ice cap over the past century, in fact, there are no data clearly suggesting that future events will be smaller than those observed in the deposits of the last 800 years of activity. In addition, geological field data prove that the lahar triggering mechanism also has to be considered as a key input parameter and, under appropriate eruptive mechanisms, a hazard scenario of a lahar with a volume 3-times larger than the 1877 event is likely. In order to analyze the impact scenarios in the southern drainage system of the volcano, simulations of inundation areas were performed with a semi-empirical model (LAHARZ), using input parameters including variable water volume. Results indicate that a lahar 3-times larger than the 1877 event would invade much wider areas than those flooded by the 1877 lahars along the southern valley system, eventually impacting highly-urbanized areas such as the city of Latacunga.

Large-scale data analysis of power grid resilience across multiple US service regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chuanyi; Wei, Yun; Mei, Henry; Calzada, Jorge; Carey, Matthew; Church, Steve; Hayes, Timothy; Nugent, Brian; Stella, Gregory; Wallace, Matthew; White, Joe; Wilcox, Robert

2016-05-01

Severe weather events frequently result in large-scale power failures, affecting millions of people for extended durations. However, the lack of comprehensive, detailed failure and recovery data has impeded large-scale resilience studies. Here, we analyse data from four major service regions representing Upstate New York during Super Storm Sandy and daily operations. Using non-stationary spatiotemporal random processes that relate infrastructural failures to recoveries and cost, our data analysis shows that local power failures have a disproportionally large non-local impact on people (that is, the top 20% of failures interrupted 84% of services to customers). A large number (89%) of small failures, represented by the bottom 34% of customers and commonplace devices, resulted in 56% of the total cost of 28 million customer interruption hours. Our study shows that extreme weather does not cause, but rather exacerbates, existing vulnerabilities, which are obscured in daily operations.

Experimental Quantification of Pore-Scale Flow Phenomena in 2D Heterogeneous Porous Micromodels: Multiphase Flow Towards Coupled Solid-Liquid Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kazemifar, F.; Blois, G.; Christensen, K. T.

2017-12-01

Geological sequestration of CO2 within saline aquifers is a viable technology for reducing CO2 emissions. Central to this goal is accurately predicting both the fidelity of candidate sites pre-injection of CO2 and its post-injection migration. Moreover, local fluid pressure buildup may cause activation of small pre-existing unidentified faults, leading to micro-seismic events, which could prove disastrous for societal acceptance of CCS, and possibly compromise seal integrity. Recent evidence shows that large-scale events are coupled with pore-scale phenomena, which necessitates the representation of pore-scale stress, strain, and multiphase flow processes in large-scale modeling. To this end, the pore-scale flow of water and liquid/supercritical CO2 is investigated under reservoir-relevant conditions, over a range of wettability conditions in 2D heterogeneous micromodels that reflect the complexity of a real sandstone. High-speed fluorescent microscopy, complemented by a fast differential pressure transmitter, allows for simultaneous measurement of the flow field within and the instantaneous pressure drop across the micromodels. A flexible micromodel is also designed and fabricated, to be used in conjunction with the micro-PIV technique, enabling the quantification of coupled solid-liquid interactions.

Wind-Tunnel Experiments for Gas Dispersion in an Atmospheric Boundary Layer with Large-Scale Turbulent Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michioka, Takenobu; Sato, Ayumu; Sada, Koichi

2011-10-01

Large-scale turbulent motions enhancing horizontal gas spread in an atmospheric boundary layer are simulated in a wind-tunnel experiment. The large-scale turbulent motions can be generated using an active grid installed at the front of the test section in the wind tunnel, when appropriate parameters for the angular deflection and the rotation speed are chosen. The power spectra of vertical velocity fluctuations are unchanged with and without the active grid because they are strongly affected by the surface. The power spectra of both streamwise and lateral velocity fluctuations with the active grid increase in the low frequency region, and are closer to the empirical relations inferred from field observations. The large-scale turbulent motions do not affect the Reynolds shear stress, but change the balance of the processes involved. The relative contributions of ejections to sweeps are suppressed by large-scale turbulent motions, indicating that the motions behave as sweep events. The lateral gas spread is enhanced by the lateral large-scale turbulent motions generated by the active grid. The large-scale motions, however, do not affect the vertical velocity fluctuations near the surface, resulting in their having a minimal effect on the vertical gas spread. The peak concentration normalized using the root-mean-squared value of concentration fluctuation is remarkably constant over most regions of the plume irrespective of the operation of the active grid.

Jet evolution in a dense medium: event-by-event fluctuations and multi-particle correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobedo, Miguel A.; Iancu, Edmond

2017-11-01

We study the gluon distribution produced via successive medium-induced branchings by an energetic jet propagating through a weakly-coupled quark-gluon plasma. We show that under suitable approximations, the jet evolution is a Markovian stochastic process, which is exactly solvable. For this process, we construct exact analytic solutions for all the n-point correlation functions describing the gluon distribution in the space of energy [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 05 (2016) 008. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1601.03629, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP05(2016)008, M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Multi-particle correlations and KNO scaling in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 12 (2016) 104. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1609.06104, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP12(2016)104]. Using these results, we study the event-by-event distribution of the energy lost by the jet at large angles and of the multiplicities of the soft particles which carry this energy. We find that the event-by-event fluctuations are huge: the standard deviation in the energy loss is parametrically as large as its mean value [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 05 (2016) 008. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1601.03629, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP05(2016)008]. This has important consequences for the phenomenology of di-jet asymmetry in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC: it implies that the fluctuations in the branching process can contribute to the measured asymmetry on an equal footing with the geometry of the di-jet event (i.e. as the difference between the in-medium path lengths of the two jets). We compute the higher moments of the multiplicity distribution and identify a remarkable regularity known as Koba-Nielsen-Olesen (KNO) scaling [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Multi-particle correlations and KNO scaling in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 12 (2016) 104. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1609.06104, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP12(2016)104

Watershed erosion estimated from a high-resolution sediment core reveals a non-stationary frequency-magnitude relationship and importance of seasonal climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavin, D. G.; Colombaroli, D.; Morey, A. E.

2015-12-01

The inclusion of paleo-flood events greatly affects estimates of peak magnitudes (e.g., Q100) in flood-frequency analysis. Likewise, peak events also are associated with certain synoptic climatic patterns that vary on all time scales. Geologic records preserved in lake sediments have the potential to capture the non-stationarity in frequency-magnitude relationships, but few such records preserve a continuous history of event magnitudes. We present a 10-meter 2000-yr record from Upper Squaw Lake, Oregon, that contains finely laminated silt layers that reflect landscape erosion events from the 40 km2 watershed. CT-scans of the core (<1 mm resolution) and a 14C-dated chronology yielded a pseudo-annual time series of erosion magnitudes. The most recent 80 years of the record correlates strongly with annual peak stream discharge and road construction. We examined the frequency-magnitude relationship for the entire pre-road period and show that the seven largest events fall above a strongly linear relationship, suggesting a distinct process (e.g., severe fires or earthquakes) operating at low-frequency to generate large-magnitude events. Expressing the record as cumulative sediment accumulation anomalies showed the importance of the large events in "returning the system" to the long-term mean rate. Applying frequency-magnitude analysis in a moving window showed that the Q100 and Q10 of watershed erosion varied by 1.7 and 1.0 orders of magnitude, respectively. The variations in watershed erosion are weakly correlated with temperature and precipitation reconstructions at the decadal to centennial scale. This suggests that dynamics both internal (i.e., sediment production) and external (i.e., earthquakes) to the system, as well as more stochastic events (i.e., single severe wildfires) can at least partially over-ride external climate forcing of watershed erosion at decadal to centennial time scales.

Mechanisms of the intensification of the upwelling-favorable winds during El Niño 1997-1998 in the Peruvian upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamorro, Adolfo; Echevin, Vincent; Colas, François; Oerder, Vera; Tam, Jorge; Quispe-Ccalluari, Carlos

2018-01-01

The physical processes driving the wind intensification in a coastal band of 100 km off Peru during the intense 1997-1998 El Niño (EN) event were studied using a regional atmospheric model. A simulation performed for the period 1994-2000 reproduced the coastal wind response to local sea surface temperature (SST) forcing and large scale atmospheric conditions. The model, evaluated with satellite data, represented well the intensity, seasonal and interannual variability of alongshore (i.e. NW-SE) winds. An alongshore momentum budget showed that the pressure gradient was the dominant force driving the surface wind acceleration. The pressure gradient tended to accelerate the coastal wind, while turbulent vertical mixing decelerated it. A quasi-linear relation between surface wind and pressure gradient anomalies was found. Alongshore pressure gradient anomalies were caused by a greater increase in near-surface air temperature off the northern coast than off the southern coast, associated with the inhomogeneous SST warming. Vertical profiles of wind, mixing coefficient, and momentum trends showed that the surface wind intensification was not caused by the increase of turbulence in the planetary boundary layer. Moreover, the temperature inversion in the vertical mitigated the development of pressure gradient due to air convection during part of the event. Sensitivity experiments allowed to isolate the respective impacts of the local SST forcing and large scale condition on the coastal wind intensification. It was primarily driven by the local SST forcing whereas large scale variability associated with the South Pacific Anticyclone modulated its effects. Examination of other EN events using reanalysis data confirmed that intensifications of alongshore wind off Peru were associated with SST alongshore gradient anomalies, as during the 1997-1998 event.

New Insights on Hydro-Climate Feedback Processes over the Tropical Ocean from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Li, Xiaofan; Sui, C. H.

2002-01-01

In this paper, we study hydro-climate feedback processes over the tropical oceans, by examining the relationships among large scale circulation and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager-Sea Surface Temperature (TMI-SST), and a range of TRMM rain products including rain rate, cloud liquid water, precipitable water, cloud types and areal coverage, and precipitation efficiency. Results show that for a warm event (1998), the 28C threshold of convective precipitation is quite well defined over the tropical oceans. However, for a cold event (1999), the SST threshold is less well defined, especially over the central and eastern Pacific cold tongue, where stratiform rain occurs at much lower than 28 C. Precipitation rates and cloud liquid water are found to be more closely related to the large scale vertical motion than to the underlying SST. While total columnar water vapor is more strongly dependent on SST. For a large domain, over the eastern Pacific, we find that the areal extent of the cloudy region tends to shrink as the SST increases. Examination of the relationship between cloud liquid water and rain rate suggests that the residence time of cloud liquid water tends to be shorter, associated with higher precipitation efficiency in a warmer climate. It is hypothesized that the reduction in cloudy area may be influenced both by the shift in large scale cloud patterns in response to changes in large scale forcings, and possible increase in the cloud liquid water conversion to rain water in a warmer environment. Results of numerical experiments with the Goddard cloud resolving model to test the hypothesis will be discussed.

Disclosing large scale adverse events in the US Veterans Health Administration: lessons from media responses.

PubMed

Maguire, E M; Bokhour, B G; Asch, S M; Wagner, T H; Gifford, A L; Gallagher, T H; Durfee, J M; Martinello, R A; Elwy, A R

2016-06-01

We examined print, broadcast and social media reports about health care systems' disclosures of large scale adverse events to develop future effective messaging. Directed content analysis. We systematically searched four communication databases, YouTube and Really Simple Syndication (RSS) feeds relating to six disclosures of lapses in infection control practices in the Department of Veterans Affairs occurring between 2009 and 2012. We assessed these with a coding frame derived from effective crisis and risk communication models. We identified 148 unique media reports. Some components of effective communication (discussion of cause, reassurance, self-efficacy) were more present than others (apology, lessons learned). Media about 'promoting secrecy' and 'slow response' appeared in reports when time from event discovery to patient notification was over 75 days. Elected officials' quotes (n = 115) were often negative (83%). Hospital officials' comments (n = 165) were predominantly neutral (92%), and focused on information sharing. Health care systems should work to ensure that they develop clear messages focused on what is not well covered by the media, including authentic apologies, remedial actions taken, and shorten the timeframe between event identification and disclosure to patients. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Network Catastrophe: Self-Organized Patterns Reveal both the Instability and the Structure of Complex Networks

PubMed Central

Moon, Hankyu; Lu, Tsai-Ching

2015-01-01

Critical events in society or biological systems can be understood as large-scale self-emergent phenomena due to deteriorating stability. We often observe peculiar patterns preceding these events, posing a question of—how to interpret the self-organized patterns to know more about the imminent crisis. We start with a very general description — of interacting population giving rise to large-scale emergent behaviors that constitute critical events. Then we pose a key question: is there a quantifiable relation between the network of interactions and the emergent patterns? Our investigation leads to a fundamental understanding to: 1. Detect the system's transition based on the principal mode of the pattern dynamics; 2. Identify its evolving structure based on the observed patterns. The main finding of this study is that while the pattern is distorted by the network of interactions, its principal mode is invariant to the distortion even when the network constantly evolves. Our analysis on real-world markets show common self-organized behavior near the critical transitions, such as housing market collapse and stock market crashes, thus detection of critical events before they are in full effect is possible. PMID:25822423

Network Catastrophe: Self-Organized Patterns Reveal both the Instability and the Structure of Complex Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Hankyu; Lu, Tsai-Ching

2015-03-01

Critical events in society or biological systems can be understood as large-scale self-emergent phenomena due to deteriorating stability. We often observe peculiar patterns preceding these events, posing a question of--how to interpret the self-organized patterns to know more about the imminent crisis. We start with a very general description -- of interacting population giving rise to large-scale emergent behaviors that constitute critical events. Then we pose a key question: is there a quantifiable relation between the network of interactions and the emergent patterns? Our investigation leads to a fundamental understanding to: 1. Detect the system's transition based on the principal mode of the pattern dynamics; 2. Identify its evolving structure based on the observed patterns. The main finding of this study is that while the pattern is distorted by the network of interactions, its principal mode is invariant to the distortion even when the network constantly evolves. Our analysis on real-world markets show common self-organized behavior near the critical transitions, such as housing market collapse and stock market crashes, thus detection of critical events before they are in full effect is possible.

Impact Detection for Characterization of Complex Multiphase Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Wai Hong Ronald; Urzay, Javier; Mani, Ali; Moin, Parviz

2016-11-01

Multiphase flows often involve a wide range of impact events, such as liquid droplets impinging on a liquid pool or gas bubbles coalescing in a liquid medium. These events contribute to a myriad of large-scale phenomena, including breaking waves on ocean surfaces. As impacts between surfaces necessarily occur at isolated points, numerical simulations of impact events will require the resolution of molecular scales near the impact points for accurate modeling. This can be prohibitively expensive unless subgrid impact and breakup models are formulated to capture the effects of the interactions. The first step in a large-eddy simulation (LES) based computational methodology for complex multiphase flows like air-sea interactions requires effective detection of these impact events. The starting point of this work is a collision detection algorithm for structured grids on a coupled level set / volume of fluid (CLSVOF) solver adapted from an earlier algorithm for cloth animations that triangulates the interface with the marching cubes method. We explore the extension of collision detection to a geometric VOF solver and to unstructured grids. Supported by ONR/A*STAR. Agency of Science, Technology and Research, Singapore; Office of Naval Research, USA.

Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System

PubMed Central

Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2014-01-01

Abstract Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years. PMID:25553271

Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System.

PubMed

Doyle, Andy; Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2014-12-01

Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years.

Regional and local increases in storm intensity in the San Francisco Bay Area, USA, between 1890 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Tess A.; Fisher, Andrew T.; Winslow, Dustin M.

2013-04-01

Studies of extreme precipitation have documented changes at the continental scale during the twentieth century, but few studies have quantified changes at small to regional spatial scales during the same time. We analyze historic data from over 600 precipitation stations in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), California, to assess whether there have been statistically significant changes in extreme precipitation between 1890 and 2010. An annual exceedance probability analysis of extreme precipitation events in the SFBA, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, reveals an increase in the occurrence of large events. The depth-duration-frequency characteristics of maximum annual precipitation events having durations of 1 h to 60 days indicate on average an increase in storm intensity in the last 120 years, with the intensity of the largest (least frequent) events increasing the most. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) also increased during the study period, but the relative increase in extreme event intensity exceeds that of MAP, indicating that a greater fraction of precipitation fell during large events. Analysis of data from subareas within the SFBA region indicates considerable heterogeneity in the observed nonstationarity; for example, the 5 day, 25 year event exceedance depth changed by +26%, +16%, and -1% in San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and San Jose, respectively. These results emphasize the importance of analyzing local data for accurate risk assessment, emergency planning, resource management, and climate model calibration.

Erosion, sedimentation, and cumulative effects in the Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Walter F. Megahan; John G. King

2004-01-01

Erosion and sedimentation are natural geomorphic processes characterized by large temporal and spatial variability. Recent radionuclide studies suggest that rare episodic events, such as large wildfires, produce massive sediment yields over time scales of thousands of years, thereby causing long-term average sediment production to exceed present-day average erosion...

Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

2014-01-01

We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

Multi-Scale Observation of Time-Variable Interactions of a Stream and its Valley Bottom During a Storm Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hixson, J.; Ward, A. S.; Schmadel, N.

2015-12-01

The exchange of water and solutes across the stream-hyporheic-riparian-hillslope continuum is controlled by the interaction of dynamic hydrological processes with the underlying geological setting. Our current understanding of exchange processes is primarily based on field observations collected during baseflow conditions, with few studies considering time-variable stream-aquifer interactions during storm events. We completed ten sets of four in-stream tracer slug injections during and after a large storm event in a headwater catchment at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon. The injections were performed in three adjacent 50-meter study reaches, enabling comparison of spatial heterogeneity in transport processes. Reach-scale data demonstrate apparent trends with discharge in both transient storage and long-term storage (commonly "channel water balance"). Comparison of flowpath-scale observations from a network of monitoring wells to reach-scale observations showed that the advective timescale changed with discharge making it difficult to infer process from simple, reach-scale tracer studies. Overall, our results highlight the opportunities and challenges for interpretation of multi-scale solute tracer data along the stream-hyporheic-riparian-hillslope continuum.

Measurement of k T splitting scales in W→ℓν events at $$\\sqrt{s} = 7\\ \\mathrm{TeV}$$ with the ATLAS detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aad, G.; Abajyan, T.; Abbott, B.

2013-05-15

A measurement of splitting scales, as defined by the k T clustering algorithm, is presented for final states containing a W boson produced in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. The measurement is based on the full 2010 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 pb -1 which was collected using the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Cluster splitting scales are measured in events containing W bosons decaying to electrons or muons. The measurement comprises the four hardest splitting scales in a k T cluster sequence of the hadronic activity accompanying themore » W boson, and ratios of these splitting scales. Backgrounds such as multi-jet and top-quark-pair production are subtracted and the results are corrected for detector effects. Predictions from various Monte Carlo event generators at particle level are compared to the data. Overall, reasonable agreement is found with all generators, but larger deviations between the predictions and the data are evident in the soft regions of the splitting scales.« less

Evaluation of Hydrogel Technologies for the Decontamination ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report This current research effort was developed to evaluate intermediate level (between bench-scale and large-scale or wide-area implementation) decontamination procedures, materials, technologies, and techniques used to remove radioactive material from different surfaces. In the event of such an incident, application of this technology would primarily be intended for decontamination of high-value buildings, important infrastructure, and landmarks.

A scalable multi-photon coincidence detector based on superconducting nanowires.

PubMed

Zhu, Di; Zhao, Qing-Yuan; Choi, Hyeongrak; Lu, Tsung-Ju; Dane, Andrew E; Englund, Dirk; Berggren, Karl K

2018-06-04

Coincidence detection of single photons is crucial in numerous quantum technologies and usually requires multiple time-resolved single-photon detectors. However, the electronic readout becomes a major challenge when the measurement basis scales to large numbers of spatial modes. Here, we address this problem by introducing a two-terminal coincidence detector that enables scalable readout of an array of detector segments based on superconducting nanowire microstrip transmission line. Exploiting timing logic, we demonstrate a sixteen-element detector that resolves all 136 possible single-photon and two-photon coincidence events. We further explore the pulse shapes of the detector output and resolve up to four-photon events in a four-element device, giving the detector photon-number-resolving capability. This new detector architecture and operating scheme will be particularly useful for multi-photon coincidence detection in large-scale photonic integrated circuits.

A large-scale phylogeny of Synodontis (Mochokidae, Siluriformes) reveals the influence of geological events on continental diversity during the Cenozoic.

PubMed

Pinton, Aurélie; Agnèse, Jean-François; Paugy, Didier; Otero, Olga

2013-03-01

To explain the spatial variability of fish taxa at a large scale, two alternative proposals are usually evoked. In recent years, the debate has centred on the relative roles of present and historical processes in shaping biodiversity patterns. In Africa, attempts to understand the processes that determine the large scale distribution of fishes and exploration of historical contingencies have been under-investigated given that most of the phylogenetic studies focus on the history of the Great Lakes. Here, we explore phylogeographic events in the evolutionary history of Synodontis (Mohokidae, Siluriformes) over Africa during the Cenozoic focusing on the putative role of historical processes. We discuss how known geological events together with hydrographical changes contributed to shape Synodontis biogeographical history. Synodontis was chosen on the basis of its high diversity and distribution in Africa: it consists of approximately 120 species that are widely distributed in all hydrographic basins except the Maghreb and South Africa. We propose the most comprehensive phylogeny of this catfish genus. Our results provide support for the 'hydrogeological' hypothesis, which proposes that palaeohydrological changes linked with the geological context may have been the cause of diversification of freshwater fish deep in the Tertiary. More precisely, the two main geological structures that participated to shape the hydrographical network in Africa, namely the Central African Shear zone and the East African rift system, appear as strong drivers of Synodontis diversification and evolution. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved microseismic event locations through large-N arrays and wave-equation imaging and inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witten, B.; Shragge, J. C.

2016-12-01

The recent increased focus on small-scale seismicity, Mw < 4 has come about primarily for two reasons. First, there is an increase in induced seismicity related to injection operations primarily for wastewater disposal and hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas recovery and for geothermal energy production. While the seismicity associated with injection is sometimes felt, it is more often weak. Some weak events are detected on current sparse arrays; however, accurate location of the events often requires a larger number of (multi-component) sensors. This leads to the second reason for an increased focus on small magnitude seismicity: a greater number of seismometers are being deployed in large N-arrays. The greater number of sensors decreases the detection threshold and therefore significantly increases the number of weak events found. Overall, these two factors bring new challenges and opportunities. Many standard seismological location and inversion techniques are geared toward large, easily identifiable events recorded on a sparse number of stations. However, with large-N arrays we can detect small events by utilizing multi-trace processing techniques, and increased processing power equips us with tools that employ more complete physics for simultaneously locating events and inverting for P- and S-wave velocity structure. We present a method that uses large-N arrays and wave-equation-based imaging and inversion to jointly locate earthquakes and estimate the elastic velocities of the earth. The technique requires no picking and is thus suitable for weak events. We validate the methodology through synthetic and field data examples.

Using MHD Models for Context for Multispacecraft Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiff, P. H.; Sazykin, S. Y.; Webster, J.; Daou, A.; Welling, D. T.; Giles, B. L.; Pollock, C.

2016-12-01

The use of global MHD models such as BATS-R-US to provide context to data from widely spaced multispacecraft mission platforms is gaining in popularity and in effectiveness. Examples are shown, primarily from the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) program compared to BATS-R-US. We present several examples of large-scale magnetospheric configuration changes such as tail dipolarization events and reconfigurations after a sector boundary crossing which are made much more easily understood by placing the spacecraft in the model fields. In general, the models can reproduce the large-scale changes observed by the various spacecraft but sometimes miss small-scale or rapid time changes.

weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Bowery, Andy; Haustein, Karsten; Massey, Neil R.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Uhe, Peter; Wallom, David C. H.; Wilson, Simon; Allen, Myles R.

2017-05-01

Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change in frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing to the relatively short observational record, climate models are useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample of extreme events, to attribute recent events to anthropogenic climate change, and to project changes in such events into the future. The modelling system known as weather@home, consisting of a global climate model (GCM) with a nested regional climate model (RCM) and driven by sea surface temperatures, allows one to generate a very large ensemble with the help of volunteer distributed computing. This is a key tool to understanding many aspects of extreme events. Here, a new version of the weather@home system (weather@home 2) with a higher-resolution RCM over Europe is documented and a broad validation of the climate is performed. The new model includes a more recent land-surface scheme in both GCM and RCM, where subgrid-scale land-surface heterogeneity is newly represented using tiles, and an increase in RCM resolution from 50 to 25 km. The GCM performs similarly to the previous version, with some improvements in the representation of mean climate. The European RCM temperature biases are overall reduced, in particular the warm bias over eastern Europe, but large biases remain. Precipitation is improved over the Alps in summer, with mixed changes in other regions and seasons. The model is shown to represent the main classes of regional extreme events reasonably well and shows a good sensitivity to its drivers. In particular, given the improvements in this version of the weather@home system, it is likely that more reliable statements can be made with regards to impact statements, especially at more localized scales.

Association of Impulsive Solar Energetic Particle Events With Large-Scale Coronal Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucik, R.; Innes, D.; Mason, G. M.; Wiedenbeck, M. E.

2016-12-01

Impulsive or 3He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events have been commonly associated with EUV jets and narrow CMEs which are believed to be the signatures of magnetic reconnection involving field lines open to interplanetary space. The elemental and isotopic fractionation in these events are thought to be caused by processes confined to the flare sites. In addition to their anomalous abundances, 3He-rich SEPs show puzzling energy spectral shapes varying from rounded forms to power laws where the later are characteristics of shock acceleration. In this study we identify 32 impulsive SEP events observed by the ACE near the Earth during the solar minimum period 2007-2010 and examine their solar sources with the high resolution STEREO EUV images. Leading the Earth, STEREO-A provided for the first time a direct view on impulsive SEP event sources, which are generally located on the Sun's western hemisphere. Surprisingly, we find that about half of the impulsive SEP events in this survey are associated with large-scale EUV coronal waves. An examination of the wave front propagation and the coronal magnetic field connections suggests that the EUV waves may affect the injection of 3He-rich SEPs into interplanetary space. We found the events with jets tend to be associated with rounded spectra and the events with coronal waves with power laws. This suggests that coronal waves may be related to the unknown second stage mechanism commonly used to interpret spectral forms of 3He-rich SEPs. R. Bucik is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under grant BU 3115/2-1.

Revealing the cluster of slow transients behind a large slow slip event.

PubMed

Frank, William B; Rousset, Baptiste; Lasserre, Cécile; Campillo, Michel

2018-05-01

Capable of reaching similar magnitudes to large megathrust earthquakes [ M w (moment magnitude) > 7], slow slip events play a major role in accommodating tectonic motion on plate boundaries through predominantly aseismic rupture. We demonstrate here that large slow slip events are a cluster of short-duration slow transients. Using a dense catalog of low-frequency earthquakes as a guide, we investigate the M w 7.5 slow slip event that occurred in 2006 along the subduction interface 40 km beneath Guerrero, Mexico. We show that while the long-period surface displacement, as recorded by Global Positioning System, suggests a 6-month duration, the motion in the direction of tectonic release only sporadically occurs over 55 days, and its surface signature is attenuated by rapid relocking of the plate interface. Our proposed description of slow slip as a cluster of slow transients forces us to re-evaluate our understanding of the physics and scaling of slow earthquakes.

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolph, Rebecca J.; Mahoney, Andrew R.; Walsh, John; Loring, Philip A.

2018-05-01

Using thresholds of physical climate variables developed from community observations, together with two large-scale datasets, we have produced local indices directly relevant to the impacts of a reduced sea ice cover on Alaska coastal communities. The indices include the number of false freeze-ups defined by transient exceedances of ice concentration prior to a corresponding exceedance that persists, false break-ups, timing of freeze-up and break-up, length of the open water duration, number of days when the winds preclude hunting via boat (wind speed threshold exceedances), the number of wind events conducive to geomorphological work or damage to infrastructure from ocean waves, and the number of these wind events with on- and along-shore components promoting water setup along the coastline. We demonstrate how community observations can inform use of large-scale datasets to derive these locally relevant indices. The two primary large-scale datasets are the Historical Sea Ice Atlas for Alaska and the atmospheric output from a regional climate model used to downscale the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis. We illustrate the variability and trends of these indices by application to the rural Alaska communities of Kotzebue, Shishmaref, and Utqiaġvik (previously Barrow), although the same procedure and metrics can be applied to other coastal communities. Over the 1979-2014 time period, there has been a marked increase in the number of combined false freeze-ups and false break-ups as well as the number of days too windy for hunting via boat for all three communities, especially Utqiaġvik. At Utqiaġvik, there has been an approximate tripling of the number of wind events conducive to coastline erosion from 1979 to 2014. We have also found a delay in freeze-up and earlier break-up, leading to a lengthened open water period for all of the communities examined.

Contribution of the infrasound technology to characterize large scale atmospheric disturbances and impact on infrasound monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elisabeth; Le Pichon, Alexis; Ceranna, Lars; Pilger, Christoph; Charlton Perez, Andrew; Smets, Pieter

2016-04-01

The International Monitoring System (IMS) developed for the verification of the Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) provides a unique global description of atmospheric disturbances generating infrasound such as extreme events (e.g. meteors, volcanoes, earthquakes, and severe weather) or human activity (e.g. explosions and supersonic airplanes). The analysis of the detected signals, recorded at global scales and over near 15 years at some stations, demonstrates that large-scale atmospheric disturbances strongly affect infrasound propagation. Their time scales vary from several tens of minutes to hours and days. Their effects are in average well resolved by the current model predictions; however, accurate spatial and temporal description is lacking in both weather and climate models. This study reviews recent results using the infrasound technology to characterize these large scale disturbances, including (i) wind fluctuations induced by gravity waves generating infrasound partial reflections and modifications of the infrasound waveguide, (ii) convection from thunderstorms and mountain waves generating gravity waves, (iii) stratospheric warming events which yield wind inversions in the stratosphere, (iv)planetary waves which control the global atmospheric circulation. Improved knowledge of these disturbances and assimilation in future models is an important objective of the ARISE (Atmospheric dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe) project. This is essential in the context of the future verification of the CTBT as enhanced atmospheric models are necessary to assess the IMS network performance in higher resolution, reduce source location errors, and improve characterization methods.

Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David

2016-04-01

Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for 60 years (1951-2010) show large annual and multiannual variability. The trends are mostly positive in the western parts and negative to the east. However, due to the large temporal variability, the trends are not significant at most of the grid points. Furthermore, it becomes clear that the environmental conditions that favor the formation of hailstorms prevail in larger areas. This finding suggests that, despite the local-scale nature of convective storms, the ambient conditions favoring these events are mainly controlled by large-scale circulation patterns and mechanisms. This result is important to estimate the convective potential of the atmosphere in case of single events.

Memory effect in M ≥ 7 earthquakes of Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jeen-Hwa

2014-07-01

The M ≥ 7 earthquakes that occurred in the Taiwan region during 1906-2006 are taken to study the possibility of memory effect existing in the sequence of those large earthquakes. Those events are all mainshocks. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze two sequences in terms of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. For both magnitude and inter-event time, the calculations are made for three data sets, i.e., the original order data, the reverse-order data, and that of the mean values. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of both magnitude and inter-event time data. In addition, the phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Results lead to a negative answer. Together with all types of information in study, we make a conclusion that the earthquake sequence in study is short-term corrected and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

Observations of premonitory acoustic emission and slip nucleation during a stick slip experiment in smooth faulted Westerly granite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, B.D.; Young, R.P.; Lockner, D.A.

2005-01-01

To investigate laboratory earthquakes, stick-slip events were induced on a saw-cut Westerly granite sample by triaxial loading at 150 MPa confining pressure. Acoustic emissions (AE) were monitored using an innovative continuous waveform recorder. The first motion of each stick slip was recorded as a large-amplitude AE signal. These events source locate onto the saw-cut fault plane, implying that they represent the nucleation sites of the dynamic failure stick-slip events. The precise location of nucleation varied between events and was probably controlled by heterogeneity of stress or surface conditions on the fault. The initial nucleation diameter of each dynamic instability was inferred to be less than 3 mm. A small number of AE were recorded prior to each macro slip event. For the second and third slip events, premonitory AE source mechanisms mimic the large scale fault plane geometry. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Aerosol Meteorology of Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 2: Philippine Receptor Observations of Fine-Scale Aerosol Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reid, Jeffrey S.; Lagrosas, Nofel D.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Atwood, Samuel A.; Boyd, Thomas J.; Ghate, Virendra P.; Xian, Peng; Posselt, Derek J.; Simpas, James B.;

Aerosol meteorology of Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS southwest monsoon intensive study – Part 2: Philippine receptor observations of fine-scale aerosol behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reid, Jeffrey S.; Lagrosas, Nofel D.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operations period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August–September 2012 biomass burning season. Data included were observations aboard the M/Y Vasco, dispatched to the Palawan Archipelago and Sulu Sea of the Philippines for September 2012. At these locations, the Vasco observed MC smoke and pollution entering the southwest monsoon (SWM) monsoonal trough. Here we describe the research cruise findings and the finer-scale aerosol meteorology of this convectively active region. This 2012 cruise complemented a 2-week cruise in 2011 and was generally consistent with previous findings in terms of how smoke emission and transportmore » related to monsoonal flows, tropical cyclones (TC), and the covariance between smoke transport events and the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure. Biomass burning plumes were usually mixed with significant amounts of anthropogenic pollution. Also key to aerosol behavior were squall lines and cold pools propagating across the South China Sea (SCS) and scavenging aerosol particles in their path. However, the 2012 cruise showed much higher modulation in aerosol frequency than its 2011 counterpart. Whereas in 2011 large synoptic-scale aerosol events transported high concentrations of smoke into the Philippines over days, in 2012 measured aerosol events exhibited a much shorter-term variation, sometimes only 3$-$12 h. Strong monsoonal flow reversals were also experienced in 2012. Nucleation events in cleaner and polluted conditions, as well as in urban plumes, were observed. Perhaps most interestingly, several cases of squall lines preceding major aerosol events were observed, as opposed to 2011 observations where these lines largely scavenged aerosol particles from the marine boundary layer. Combined, these observations indicate pockets of high and low particle counts that are not uncommon in the region. These perturbations are difficult to observe by satellite and very difficult to model. Indeed, the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) simulations captured longer period aerosol events quite well but largely failed to capture the timing of high-frequency phenomena. Ultimately, the research findings of these cruises demonstrate the real world challenges of satellite-based missions, significant aerosol life cycle questions such as those the future Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystems (ACE) will investigate, and the importance of small-scale phenomena such as sea breezes, squall lines, and nucleation events embedded within SWM patterns in dominating aerosol life cycle and potential relationships to clouds.« less

Aerosol meteorology of Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS southwest monsoon intensive study - Part 2: Philippine receptor observations of fine-scale aerosol behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Jeffrey S.; Lagrosas, Nofel D.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Reid, Elizabeth A.; Atwood, Samuel A.; Boyd, Thomas J.; Ghate, Virendra P.; Xian, Peng; Posselt, Derek J.; Simpas, James B.; Uy, Sherdon N.; Zaiger, Kimo; Blake, Donald R.; Bucholtz, Anthony; Campbell, James R.; Chew, Boon Ning; Cliff, Steven S.; Holben, Brent N.; Holz, Robert E.; Hyer, Edward J.; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Kuciauskas, Arunas P.; Lolli, Simone; Oo, Min; Perry, Kevin D.; Salinas, Santo V.; Sessions, Walter R.; Smirnov, Alexander; Walker, Annette L.; Wang, Qing; Yu, Liya; Zhang, Jianglong; Zhao, Yongjing

2016-11-01

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operations period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Data included were observations aboard the M/Y Vasco, dispatched to the Palawan Archipelago and Sulu Sea of the Philippines for September 2012. At these locations, the Vasco observed MC smoke and pollution entering the southwest monsoon (SWM) monsoonal trough. Here we describe the research cruise findings and the finer-scale aerosol meteorology of this convectively active region. This 2012 cruise complemented a 2-week cruise in 2011 and was generally consistent with previous findings in terms of how smoke emission and transport related to monsoonal flows, tropical cyclones (TC), and the covariance between smoke transport events and the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure. Biomass burning plumes were usually mixed with significant amounts of anthropogenic pollution. Also key to aerosol behavior were squall lines and cold pools propagating across the South China Sea (SCS) and scavenging aerosol particles in their path. However, the 2012 cruise showed much higher modulation in aerosol frequency than its 2011 counterpart. Whereas in 2011 large synoptic-scale aerosol events transported high concentrations of smoke into the Philippines over days, in 2012 measured aerosol events exhibited a much shorter-term variation, sometimes only 3-12 h. Strong monsoonal flow reversals were also experienced in 2012. Nucleation events in cleaner and polluted conditions, as well as in urban plumes, were observed. Perhaps most interestingly, several cases of squall lines preceding major aerosol events were observed, as opposed to 2011 observations where these lines largely scavenged aerosol particles from the marine boundary layer. Combined, these observations indicate pockets of high and low particle counts that are not uncommon in the region. These perturbations are difficult to observe by satellite and very difficult to model. Indeed, the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) simulations captured longer period aerosol events quite well but largely failed to capture the timing of high-frequency phenomena. Ultimately, the research findings of these cruises demonstrate the real world challenges of satellite-based missions, significant aerosol life cycle questions such as those the future Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystems (ACE) will investigate, and the importance of small-scale phenomena such as sea breezes, squall lines, and nucleation events embedded within SWM patterns in dominating aerosol life cycle and potential relationships to clouds.

Large-Scale Coronal Heating, Clustering of Coronal Bright Points, and Concentration of Magnetic Flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falconer, D. A.; Moore, R. L.; Porter, J. G.; Hathaway, D. H.

1998-01-01

By combining quiet-region Fe XII coronal images from SOHO/EIT with magnetograms from NSO/Kitt Peak and from SOHO/MDI, we show that on scales larger than a supergranule the population of network coronal bright points and the magnetic flux content of the network are both markedly greater under the bright half of the quiet corona than under the dim half. These results (1) support the view that the heating of the entire corona in quiet regions and coronal holes is driven by fine-scale magnetic activity (microflares, explosive events, spicules) seated low in the magnetic network, and (2) suggest that this large-scale modulation of the magnetic flux and coronal heating is a signature of giant convection cells.

Stability of knotted vortices in wave chaos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Alexander; Dennis, Mark

Large scale tangles of disordered filaments occur in many diverse physical systems, from turbulent superfluids to optical volume speckle to liquid crystal phases. They can exhibit particular large scale random statistics despite very different local physics. We have previously used the topological statistics of knotting and linking to characterise the large scale tangling, using the vortices of three-dimensional wave chaos as a universal model system whose physical lengthscales are set only by the wavelength. Unlike geometrical quantities, the statistics of knotting depend strongly on the physical system and boundary conditions. Although knotting patterns characterise different systems, the topology of vortices is highly unstable to perturbation, under which they may reconnect with one another. In systems of constructed knots, these reconnections generally rapidly destroy the knot, but for vortex tangles the topological statistics must be stable. Using large scale simulations of chaotic eigenfunctions, we numerically investigate the prevalence and impact of reconnection events, and their effect on the topology of the tangle.

Multimodal solutions for large scale evacuations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-30

In this research, a multimodal transportation model was developed attending the needs of emergency situations, : and the solutions provided by the model could be used to moderate congestion during such events. : The model incorporated features such a...

Detecting TLEs using a massive all-sky camera network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garnung, M. B.; Celestin, S. J.

2017-12-01

Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) are large-scale optical events occurring in the upper-atmosphere from the top of thunderclouds up to the ionosphere. TLEs may have important effects in local, regional, and global scales, and many features of TLEs are not fully understood yet [e.g, Pasko, JGR, 115, A00E35, 2010]. Moreover, meteor events have been suggested to play a role in sprite initiation by producing ionospheric irregularities [e.g, Qin et al., Nat. Commun., 5, 3740, 2014]. The French Fireball Recovery and InterPlanetary Observation Network (FRIPON, https://www.fripon.org/?lang=en), is a national all-sky 30 fps camera network designed to continuously detect meteor events. We seek to make use of this network to observe TLEs over unprecedented space and time scales ( 1000×1000 km with continuous acquisition). To do so, we had to significantly modify FRIPON's triggering software Freeture (https://github.com/fripon/freeture) while leaving the meteor detection capability uncompromised. FRIPON has a great potential in the study of TLEs. Not only could it produce new results about spatial and time distributions of TLEs over a very large area, it could also be used to validate and complement observations from future space missions such as ASIM (ESA) and TARANIS (CNES). In this work, we present an original image processing algorithm that can detect sprites using all-sky cameras while strongly limiting the frequency of false positives and our ongoing work on sprite triangulation using the FRIPON network.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

PubMed Central

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-02-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

PubMed

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

DOE PAGES

Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; ...

2017-01-23

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less

Strain localisation in the continental lithosphere, a scale-dependent process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolivet, Laurent; Burov, Evguenii

2013-04-01

Strain localisation in continents is a general question tackled by specialists of various disciplines in Earth Sciences. Field geologists working at regional scale are able to describe the succession of events leading to the formation of large strain zones that accommodate large displacement within plate boundaries. On the other end of the spectrum, laboratory experiments provide numbers that quantitatively describe the rheology of rock material at the scale of a few mm and at deformation rates up to 8-10 orders of magnitude faster than in nature. Extrapolating from the scale of the experiment to the scale of the continental lithosphere is a considerable leap across 8-10 orders of magnitude both in space and time. It is however quite obvious that different processes are at work for each scale considered. At the scale of a grain aggregate diffusion within individual grains, dislocation or grain boundary sliding, depending on temperature and fluid conditions, are of primary importance. But at the scale of a mountain belt, a major detachment or a strike-slip shear zone that have accommodated tens or hundreds of kilometres of relative displacement, other parameters will take over such as structural softening and the heterogeneity of the crust inherited from past tectonic events that have juxtaposed rock units of very different compositions and induced a strong orientation of rocks. Once the deformation is localised along major shear zones, grain size reduction, interaction between rocks and fluids and metamorphic reactions and other small-scale processes tend to further localise the strain. Because the crust is colder and more lithologically complex this heterogeneity is likely much more prominent in the crust than in the mantle and then the relative importance of "small-scale" and "large-scale" parameters will be very different in the crust and in the mantle. Thus, depending upon the relative thickness of the crust and mantle in the deforming lithosphere, the role of each mechanism will have more or less important consequences on strain localisation. This complexity sometimes leads to disregard of experimental parameters in large-scale thermo-mechanical models and to use instead ad hoc "large-scale" numbers that better fit the observed geological history. The goal of the ERC RHEOLITH project is to associate to each tectonic process the relevant rheological parameters depending upon the scale considered, in an attempt to elaborate a generalized "Preliminary Rheology Model Set for Lithosphere" (PReMSL), which will cover the entire time and spatial scale range of deformation.

Physicochemical characterization of smoke aerosol during large-scale wildfires: Extreme event of August 2010 in Moscow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popovicheva, O.; Kistler, M.; Kireeva, E.; Persiantseva, N.; Timofeev, M.; Kopeikin, V.; Kasper-Giebl, A.

2014-10-01

Enhancement of biomass burning-related research is essential for the assessment of large-scale wildfires impact on pollution at regional and global scale. Starting since 6 August 2010 Moscow was covered with thick smoke of unusually high PM10 and BC concentrations, considerably affected by huge forest and peat fires around megacity. This work presents the first comprehensive physico-chemical characterization of aerosols during extreme smoke event in Moscow in August 2010. Sampling was performed in the Moscow center and suburb as well as one year later, in August 2011 during a period when no biomass burning was observed. Small-scale experimental fires of regional biomass were conducted in the Moscow region. Carbon content, functionalities of organic/inorganic compounds, tracers of biomass burning (anhydrosaccharides), ionic composition, and structure of smoke were analyzed by thermal-optical analysis, FTIR spectroscopy, liquid and ion chromatography, and electron microscopy. Carbonaceous aerosol in August 2010 was dominated by organic species with elemental carbon (EC) as minor component. High average OC/EC near 27.4 is found, comparable to smoke of regional biomass smoldering fire, and exceeded 3 times the value observed in August 2011. Organic functionalities of Moscow smoke aerosols were hydroxyl, aliphatic, aromatic, acid and non-acid carbonyl, and nitro compound groups, almost all of them indicate wildfires around city as the source of smoke. The ratio of levoglucosan (LG) to mannosan near 5 confirms the origin of smoke from coniferous forest fires around megacity. Low ratio of LG/OC near 0.8% indicates the degradation of major molecular tracer of biomass burning in urban environment. Total concentration of inorganic ions dominated by sulfates SO4 2 - and ammonium NH4+ was found about 5 times higher during large-scale wildfires than in August 2011. Together with strong sulfate and ammonium absorbance in smoke aerosols, these observations prove the formation of secondary inorganic species associated with wildfire gaseous emissions and their transformation in aged smoke. Accumulation of carbonyl compounds during extreme smoke event in Moscow resulted from photochemical aging and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in the urban atmosphere. The mixture of carbonaceous particles and dust revealed multicomponent structure of Moscow smoke aerosols, pointing the difference with non-smoke ambient aerosols. The abundance of group containing soot and tar balls approached at least a half of total aerosol concentration during extreme event, relating to elevated OC, EC and SOA. Fly ash groups contained calcium sulfates and carbonates from soil entrainment by hot air convection. Small-scale open fire experiments support the identification of specific chemical features of regional biomass burning and demonstrate the strong impact of large-scale wildfires on aerosol chemistry and air quality in highly polluted megacity.

Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Lisi Pei; Xindi (Randy) Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2016-01-01

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for...

Interannual Similarity in the Martian Atmosphere During the Dust Storm Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-01-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (approximately 25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

Interannual similarity in the Martian atmosphere during the dust storm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinböhl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-06-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (˜25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

Large Scale Winter Time Disturbances in Meteor Winds over Central and Eastern Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greisiger, K. M.; Portnyagin, Y. I.; Lysenko, I. A.

1984-01-01

Daily zonal wind data of the four pre-MAP-winters 1978/79 to 1981/82 obtained over Central Europe and Eastern Europe by the radar meteor method were studied. Available temperature and satellite radiance data of the middle and upper stratosphere were used for comparison, as well as wind data from Canada. The existence or nonexistence of coupling between the observed large scale zonal wind disturbances in the upper mesopause region (90 to 100 km) and corresponding events in the stratosphere are discussed.

Modeling sediment yield in small catchments at event scale: Model comparison, development and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Tesfa, T. K.

2017-12-01

Sediment yield (SY) has significant impacts on river biogeochemistry and aquatic ecosystems but it is rarely represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Existing SY models focus on estimating SY from large river basins or individual catchments so it is not clear how well they simulate SY in ESMs at larger spatial scales and globally. In this study, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of eight well-known SY models in simulating annual mean SY at about 400 small catchments ranging in size from 0.22 to 200 km2 in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico. In addition, we also investigate the performance of these models in simulating event-scale SY at six catchments in the US using high-quality hydrological inputs. The model comparison shows that none of the models can reproduce the SY at large spatial scales but the Morgan model performs the better than others despite its simplicity. In all model simulations, large underestimates occur in catchments with very high SY. A possible pathway to reduce the discrepancies is to incorporate sediment detachment by landsliding, which is currently not included in the models being evaluated. We propose a new SY model that is based on the Morgan model but including a landsliding soil detachment scheme that is being developed. Along with the results of the model comparison and evaluation, preliminary findings from the revised Morgan model will be presented.

Conifer regeneration in stand-replacement portions of a large mixed-severity wildfire in the Klamath-Siskiyou Mountains

Treesearch

Daniel C. Donato; Joseph B. Fontaine; John L. Campbell; W. Douglas Robinson; J. Boone Kauffman; Beverly E. Law

2009-01-01

Large-scale wildfires (~104-106 ha) have the potential to eliminate seed sources over broad areas and thus may lead to qualitatively different regeneration dynamics than in small burns; however, regeneration after such events has received little study in temperate forests. Following a 200 000 ha mixed-severity...

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability: the ``atom'' of geophysical turbulence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, William

2017-11-01

Observations of small-scale turbulence in Earth's atmosphere and oceans have most commonly been interpreted in terms of the Kolmogorov theory of isotropic turbulence, despite the fact that the observed turbulence is significantly anisotropic due to density stratification and sheared large-scale flows. I will describe an alternative picture in which turbulence consists of distinct events that occur sporadically in space and time. The simplest model for an individual event is the ``Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) ansatz'', in which turbulence relieves the dynamic instability of a localized shear layer. I will summarize evidence that the KH ansatz is a valid description of observed turbulence events, using microstructure measurements from the equatorial Pacific ocean as an example. While the KH ansatz has been under study for many decades and is reasonably well understood, the bigger picture is much less clear. How are the KH events distributed in space and time? How do different events interact with each other? I will describe some tentative steps toward a more thorough understanding.

Waves associated to COMPLEX EVENTS observed by STEREO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siu Tapia, A. L.; Blanco-Cano, X.; Kajdic, P.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.; Russell, C. T.; Jian, L. K.; Luhmann, J. G.

2012-12-01

Complex Events are formed by two or more large-scale solar wind structures which interact in space. Typical cases are interactions of: (i) a Magnetic Cloud/Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (MC/ICME) with another MC/ICME transient; and (ii) an ICME followed by a Stream Interaction Region (SIR). Complex Events are of importance for space weather studies and studying them can enhance our understanding of collisionless plasma physics. Some of these structures can produce or enhance southward magnetic fields, a key factor in geomagnetic storm generation. Using data from the STEREO mission during the years 2006-2011, we found 17 Complex Events preceded by a shock wave. We use magnetic field and plasma data to study the micro-scale structure of the shocks, and the waves associated to these shocks and within Complex Events structures. To determine wave characteristics we perform Power Spectra and Minimum Variance Analysis. We also use PLASTIC WAP protons data to study foreshock extensions and the relationship between Complex Regions and particle acceleration to suprathermal energies.

Onset of a Large Ejective Solar Eruption from a Typical Coronal-jet-base Field Configuration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Navin Chandra; Magara, Tetsuya; Moon, Yong-Jae

Utilizing multiwavelength observations and magnetic field data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO )/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), SDO /Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite ( GOES ), and RHESSI , we investigate a large-scale ejective solar eruption of 2014 December 18 from active region NOAA 12241. This event produced a distinctive “three-ribbon” flare, having two parallel ribbons corresponding to the ribbons of a standard two-ribbon flare, and a larger-scale third quasi-circular ribbon offset from the other two. There are two components to this eruptive event. First, a flux rope forms above a strong-field polarity inversionmore » line and erupts and grows as the parallel ribbons turn on, grow, and spread apart from that polarity inversion line; this evolution is consistent with the mechanism of tether-cutting reconnection for eruptions. Second, the eruption of the arcade that has the erupting flux rope in its core undergoes magnetic reconnection at the null point of a fan dome that envelops the erupting arcade, resulting in formation of the quasi-circular ribbon; this is consistent with the breakout reconnection mechanism for eruptions. We find that the parallel ribbons begin well before (∼12 minutes) the onset of the circular ribbon, indicating that tether-cutting reconnection (or a non-ideal MHD instability) initiated this event, rather than breakout reconnection. The overall setup for this large-scale eruption (diameter of the circular ribbon ∼10{sup 5} km) is analogous to that of coronal jets (base size ∼10{sup 4} km), many of which, according to recent findings, result from eruptions of small-scale “minifilaments.” Thus these findings confirm that eruptions of sheared-core magnetic arcades seated in fan–spine null-point magnetic topology happen on a wide range of size scales on the Sun.« less

Scaling laws for perturbations in the ocean-atmosphere system following large CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towles, N.; Olson, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-07-01

Scaling relationships are found for perturbations to atmosphere and ocean variables from large transient CO2 emissions. Using the Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir (LOSCAR) model (Zeebe et al., 2009; Zeebe, 2012b), we calculate perturbations to atmosphere temperature, total carbon, ocean temperature, total ocean carbon, pH, alkalinity, marine-sediment carbon, and carbon-13 isotope anomalies in the ocean and atmosphere resulting from idealized CO2 emission events. The peak perturbations in the atmosphere and ocean variables are then fit to power law functions of the form of γ DαEβ, where D is the event duration, E is its total carbon emission, and γ is a coefficient. Good power law fits are obtained for most system variables for E up to 50 000 PgC and D up to 100 kyr. Although all of the peak perturbations increase with emission rate E/D, we find no evidence of emission-rate-only scaling, α + β = 0. Instead, our scaling yields α + β ≃ 1 for total ocean and atmosphere carbon and 0 < α + β < 1 for most of the other system variables.

MANGO Imager Network Observations of Geomagnetic Storm Impact on Midlatitude 630 nm Airglow Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, E. A.; Bhatt, A.

2017-12-01

The Midlatitude Allsky-imaging Network for GeoSpace Observations (MANGO) is a network of imagers filtered at 630 nm spread across the continental United States. MANGO is used to image large-scale airglow and aurora features and observes the generation, propagation, and dissipation of medium and large-scale wave activity in the subauroral, mid and low-latitude thermosphere. This network consists of seven all-sky imagers providing continuous coverage over the United States and extending south into Mexico. This network sees high levels of medium and large scale wave activity due to both neutral and geomagnetic storm forcing. The geomagnetic storm observations largely fall into two categories: Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs and Large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs). In addition, less-often observed effects include anomalous airglow brightening, bright swirls, and frozen-in traveling structures. We will present an analysis of multiple events observed over four years of MANGO network operation. We will provide both statistics on the cumulative observations and a case study of the "Memorial Day Storm" on May 27, 2017.

An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

PubMed

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features.

An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

PubMed Central

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features. PMID:24599259

Quantifying Dynamic Changes on Surface of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko Using High-Resolution Photoclinometry DTMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Birch, S.; Hayes, A.; Kirk, R. L.; Kutsop, N. W. S.; Squyres, S. W.

2017-12-01

Observations from ESA's Rosetta spacecraft of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) have provided insights into the geological processes that act to modify the surface of a small, primitive body. The landscapes of 67P are shaped by both large scale violent changes, such as cliff collapses and jet events, as well as smaller and more subtle changes such as the formation of pits and ripples within the larger-scale granular deposits. Explosive jets are located through triangulating the same jet in multiple images. They appear to originate from locations close to numerous newly formed, small-scale pits, which were only observed after known jet events (for example, the jet observed on March 11th, 2015, in image N20150311T053737597ID30F22). This implies a possible link between these two dynamical processes. We generated high-resolution photoclinometric digital terrain models (DTM) of the surface of 67P (at 1.5m/pixel) in locations where recent jet events were observed and over surfaces where newly formed pits are observed. A comparison of DTMs generated of the surface both before and after the appearance of the pits provides insight to the magnitude of dynamical changes, including the volume of the ejected material. By tracking the change in the surface topography at such high resolution, we constrain both the volume of materials that are ejected from the surface during the jet event, and of materials that are retained in nearby deposits. By studying these events and their aftermath, it will be possible to formulate numerical models as to the formation of the jets and explain why and how they occur. We will use this information in conjunction with numerical modeling of the large-scale global transport of sedimentary materials on 67P, to facilitate a better understanding of cometary landscape evolution.

The solar origins of two high-latitude interplanetary disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudson, H. S.; Acton, L. W.; Alexander, D.; Harvey, K. L.; Kurokawa, H.; Kahler, S.; Lemen, J. R.

1995-01-01

Two extremely similar interplanetary forward/reverse shock events, with bidirectional electron streaming were detected by Ulysses in 1994. Ground-based and Yohkoh/SXT observations show two strikingly different solar events that could be associated with them: an LDE flare on 20 Feb. 1994, and a extremely large-scale eruptive event on 14 April 1994. Both events resulted in geomagnetic storms and presumably were associated with coronal mass ejections. The sharply contrasting nature of these solar events argues against an energetic causal relationship between them and the bidirectional streaming events observed by Ulysses during its S polar passage. We suggest instead that for each pair of events. a common solar trigger may have caused independent instabilities leading to the solar and interplanetary phenomena.

Corpus annotation for mining biomedical events from literature

PubMed Central

Kim, Jin-Dong; Ohta, Tomoko; Tsujii, Jun'ichi

2008-01-01

Background Advanced Text Mining (TM) such as semantic enrichment of papers, event or relation extraction, and intelligent Question Answering have increasingly attracted attention in the bio-medical domain. For such attempts to succeed, text annotation from the biological point of view is indispensable. However, due to the complexity of the task, semantic annotation has never been tried on a large scale, apart from relatively simple term annotation. Results We have completed a new type of semantic annotation, event annotation, which is an addition to the existing annotations in the GENIA corpus. The corpus has already been annotated with POS (Parts of Speech), syntactic trees, terms, etc. The new annotation was made on half of the GENIA corpus, consisting of 1,000 Medline abstracts. It contains 9,372 sentences in which 36,114 events are identified. The major challenges during event annotation were (1) to design a scheme of annotation which meets specific requirements of text annotation, (2) to achieve biology-oriented annotation which reflect biologists' interpretation of text, and (3) to ensure the homogeneity of annotation quality across annotators. To meet these challenges, we introduced new concepts such as Single-facet Annotation and Semantic Typing, which have collectively contributed to successful completion of a large scale annotation. Conclusion The resulting event-annotated corpus is the largest and one of the best in quality among similar annotation efforts. We expect it to become a valuable resource for NLP (Natural Language Processing)-based TM in the bio-medical domain. PMID:18182099

Improved Strength and Damage Modeling of Geologic Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Sarah; Senft, Laurel

2007-06-01

Collisions and impact cratering events are important processes in the evolution of planetary bodies. The time and length scales of planetary collisions, however, are inaccessible in the laboratory and require the use of shock physics codes. We present the results from a new rheological model for geological materials implemented in the CTH code [1]. The `ROCK' model includes pressure, temperature, and damage effects on strength, as well as acoustic fluidization during impact crater collapse. We demonstrate that the model accurately reproduces final crater shapes, tensile cracking, and damaged zones from laboratory to planetary scales. The strength model requires basic material properties; hence, the input parameters may be benchmarked to laboratory results and extended to planetary collision events. We show the effects of varying material strength parameters, which are dependent on both scale and strain rate, and discuss choosing appropriate parameters for laboratory and planetary situations. The results are a significant improvement in models of continuum rock deformation during large scale impact events. [1] Senft, L. E., Stewart, S. T. Modeling Impact Cratering in Layered Surfaces, J. Geophys. Res., submitted.

Multimodal Solutions for Large Scale Evacuation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-30

In this research, a multimodal transportation model was developed attending the needs of emergency situations, and the solutions provided by the model could be used to moderate congestion during such events. The model incorporated features such as la...

A Percolation Perspective for Gutenburg-Richter Scaling and b-values for Fracking Assocated Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, J. Q.

2016-12-01

Published 60 years ago, the Gutenburg-Richter law provides a universal frequency-magnitude distribution for natural and induced seismicity. The GR law is a two parameter power-law with the b-value specifying the relative frequency of small and large events. For large catalogs of natural seismicity, the observed b-values are near one, while fracking associated seismicity has observed b-values near two, indicating relatively fewer large events. We have developed a computationally inexpensive percolation model for fracking that allows us to generate large catalogs of fracking associated seismicity. Using these catalogs, we show that different power-law fitting procedures produce different b-values for the same data set. This shows that care must be taken when determining and comparing b-values for fracking associated seismicity.

Large scale distribution of ultra high energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory with zenith angles up to 80°

DOE PAGES

Aab, Alexander

2015-03-30

In this study, we present the results of an analysis of the large angular scale distribution of the arrival directions of cosmic rays with energy above 4 EeV detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory including for the first time events with zenith angle between 60° and 80°. We perform two Rayleigh analyses, one in the right ascension and one in the azimuth angle distributions, that are sensitive to modulations in right ascension and declination, respectively. The largest departure from isotropy appears in themore » $$E\\gt 8$$ EeV energy bin, with an amplitude for the first harmonic in right ascension $$r_{1}^{\\alpha }=(4.4\\pm 1.0)\\times {{10}^{-2}}$$, that has a chance probability $$P(\\geqslant r_{1}^{\\alpha })=6.4\\times {{10}^{-5}}$$, reinforcing the hint previously reported with vertical events alone.« less

ProMotE: an efficient algorithm for counting independent motifs in uncertain network topologies.

PubMed

Ren, Yuanfang; Sarkar, Aisharjya; Kahveci, Tamer

2018-06-26

Identifying motifs in biological networks is essential in uncovering key functions served by these networks. Finding non-overlapping motif instances is however a computationally challenging task. The fact that biological interactions are uncertain events further complicates the problem, as it makes the existence of an embedding of a given motif an uncertain event as well. In this paper, we develop a novel method, ProMotE (Probabilistic Motif Embedding), to count non-overlapping embeddings of a given motif in probabilistic networks. We utilize a polynomial model to capture the uncertainty. We develop three strategies to scale our algorithm to large networks. Our experiments demonstrate that our method scales to large networks in practical time with high accuracy where existing methods fail. Moreover, our experiments on cancer and degenerative disease networks show that our method helps in uncovering key functional characteristics of biological networks.

Petri Net controller synthesis based on decomposed manufacturing models.

PubMed

Dideban, Abbas; Zeraatkar, Hashem

2018-06-01

Utilizing of supervisory control theory on the real systems in many modeling tools such as Petri Net (PN) becomes challenging in recent years due to the significant states in the automata models or uncontrollable events. The uncontrollable events initiate the forbidden states which might be removed by employing some linear constraints. Although there are many methods which have been proposed to reduce these constraints, enforcing them to a large-scale system is very difficult and complicated. This paper proposes a new method for controller synthesis based on PN modeling. In this approach, the original PN model is broken down into some smaller models in which the computational cost reduces significantly. Using this method, it is easy to reduce and enforce the constraints to a Petri net model. The appropriate results of our proposed method on the PN models denote worthy controller synthesis for the large scale systems. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.; Gu, Guojun; Nelkin, Eric J.; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Stocker, Erich; Wolff, David B.

2006-01-01

The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) provides a calibration-based sequential scheme for combining multiple precipitation estimates from satellites, as well as gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees and 3-hourly). It is available both after and in real time, based on calibration by the TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation products, respectively. Only the after-real-time product incorporates gauge data at the present. The data set covers the latitude band 50 degrees N-S for the period 1998 to the delayed present. Early validation results are as follows: The TMPA provides reasonable performance at monthly scales, although it is shown to have precipitation rate dependent low bias due to lack of sensitivity to low precipitation rates in one of the input products (based on AMSU-B). At finer scales the TMPA is successful at approximately reproducing the surface-observation-based histogram of precipitation, as well as reasonably detecting large daily events. The TMPA, however, has lower skill in correctly specifying moderate and light event amounts on short time intervals, in common with other fine-scale estimators. Examples are provided of a flood event and diurnal cycle determination.

Precipitation-snowmelt timing and snowmelt augmentation of large peak flow events, western Cascades, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, Keith; Jones, Julia A.

2015-09-01

This study tested multiple hydrologic mechanisms to explain snowpack dynamics in extreme rain-on-snow floods, which occur widely in the temperate and polar regions. We examined 26, 10 day large storm events over the period 1992-2012 in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in western Oregon, using statistical analyses (regression, ANOVA, and wavelet coherence) of hourly snowmelt lysimeter, air and dewpoint temperature, wind speed, precipitation, and discharge data. All events involved snowpack outflow, but only seven events had continuous net snowpack outflow, including three of the five top-ranked peak discharge events. Peak discharge was not related to precipitation rate, but it was related to the 10 day sum of precipitation and net snowpack outflow, indicating an increased flood response to continuously melting snowpacks. The two largest peak discharge events in the study had significant wavelet coherence at multiple time scales over several days; a distribution of phase differences between precipitation and net snowpack outflow at the 12-32 h time scale with a sharp peak at π/2 radians; and strongly correlated snowpack outflow among lysimeters representing 42% of basin area. The recipe for an extreme rain-on-snow event includes persistent, slow melt within the snowpack, which appears to produce a near-saturated zone within the snowpack throughout the landscape, such that the snowpack may transmit pressure waves of precipitation directly to streams, and this process is synchronized across the landscape. Further work is needed to understand the internal dynamics of a melting snowpack throughout a snow-covered landscape and its contribution to extreme rain-on-snow floods.

Earthquake scaling laws for rupture geometry and slip heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Mai, P. Martin; Goda, Katsuichiro

2016-04-01

We analyze an extensive compilation of finite-fault rupture models to investigate earthquake scaling of source geometry and slip heterogeneity to derive new relationships for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment. Our dataset comprises 158 earthquakes with a total of 316 rupture models selected from the SRCMOD database (http://equake-rc.info/srcmod). We find that fault-length does not saturate with earthquake magnitude, while fault-width reveals inhibited growth due to the finite seismogenic thickness. For strike-slip earthquakes, fault-length grows more rapidly with increasing magnitude compared to events of other faulting types. Interestingly, our derived relationship falls between the L-model and W-model end-members. In contrast, both reverse and normal dip-slip events are more consistent with self-similar scaling of fault-length. However, fault-width scaling relationships for large strike-slip and normal dip-slip events, occurring on steeply dipping faults (δ~90° for strike-slip faults, and δ~60° for normal faults), deviate from self-similarity. Although reverse dip-slip events in general show self-similar scaling, the restricted growth of down-dip fault extent (with upper limit of ~200 km) can be seen for mega-thrust subduction events (M~9.0). Despite this fact, for a given earthquake magnitude, subduction reverse dip-slip events occupy relatively larger rupture area, compared to shallow crustal events. In addition, we characterize slip heterogeneity in terms of its probability distribution and spatial correlation structure to develop a complete stochastic random-field characterization of earthquake slip. We find that truncated exponential law best describes the probability distribution of slip, with observable scale parameters determined by the average and maximum slip. Applying Box-Cox transformation to slip distributions (to create quasi-normal distributed data) supports cube-root transformation, which also implies distinctive non-Gaussian slip distributions. To further characterize the spatial correlations of slip heterogeneity, we analyze the power spectral decay of slip applying the 2-D von Karman auto-correlation function (parameterized by the Hurst exponent, H, and correlation lengths along strike and down-slip). The Hurst exponent is scale invariant, H = 0.83 (± 0.12), while the correlation lengths scale with source dimensions (seismic moment), thus implying characteristic physical scales of earthquake ruptures. Our self-consistent scaling relationships allow constraining the generation of slip-heterogeneity scenarios for physics-based ground-motion and tsunami simulations.

Impact phenomena as factors in the evolution of the Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grieve, R. A. F.; Parmentier, E. M.

1984-01-01

It is estimated that 30 to 200 large impact basins could have been formed on the early Earth. These large impacts may have resulted in extensive volcanism and enhanced endogenic geologic activity over large areas. Initial modelling of the thermal and subsidence history of large terrestrial basins indicates that they created geologic and thermal anomalies which lasted for geologically significant times. The role of large-scale impact in the biological evolution of the Earth has been highlighted by the discovery of siderophile anomalies at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary and associated with North American microtektites. Although in neither case has an associated crater been identified, the observations are consistent with the deposition of projectile-contaminated high-speed ejecta from major impact events. Consideration of impact processes reveals a number of mechanisms by which large-scale impact may induce extinctions.

Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

2014-01-01

Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted. PMID:24937550

Finding the signal in the noise: Could social media be utilized for early hospital notification of multiple casualty events?

PubMed Central

Moore, Sara; Wakam, Glenn; Hubbard, Alan E.; Cohen, Mitchell J.

2017-01-01

Introduction Delayed notification and lack of early information hinder timely hospital based activations in large scale multiple casualty events. We hypothesized that Twitter real-time data would produce a unique and reproducible signal within minutes of multiple casualty events and we investigated the timing of the signal compared with other hospital disaster notification mechanisms. Methods Using disaster specific search terms, all relevant tweets from the event to 7 days post-event were analyzed for 5 recent US based multiple casualty events (Boston Bombing [BB], SF Plane Crash [SF], Napa Earthquake [NE], Sandy Hook [SH], and Marysville Shooting [MV]). Quantitative and qualitative analysis of tweet utilization were compared across events. Results Over 3.8 million tweets were analyzed (SH 1.8 m, BB 1.1m, SF 430k, MV 250k, NE 205k). Peak tweets per min ranged from 209–3326. The mean followers per tweeter ranged from 3382–9992 across events. Retweets were tweeted a mean of 82–564 times per event. Tweets occurred very rapidly for all events (<2 mins) and represented 1% of the total event specific tweets in a median of 13 minutes of the first 911 calls. A 200 tweets/min threshold was reached fastest with NE (2 min), BB (7 min), and SF (18 mins). If this threshold was utilized as a signaling mechanism to place local hospitals on standby for possible large scale events, in all case studies, this signal would have preceded patient arrival. Importantly, this threshold for signaling would also have preceded traditional disaster notification mechanisms in SF, NE, and simultaneous with BB and MV. Conclusions Social media data has demonstrated that this mechanism is a powerful, predictable, and potentially important resource for optimizing disaster response. Further investigated is warranted to assess the utility of prospective signally thresholds for hospital based activation. PMID:28982201

Fine-Scale Event Location and Error Analysis in NET-VISA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, N. S.; Russell, S.

2016-12-01

NET-VISA is a generative probabilistic model for the occurrence of seismic, hydro, and atmospheric events, and the propagation of energy from these events through various mediums and phases before being detected, or misdetected, by IMS stations. It is built on top of the basic station, and arrival detection processing at the IDC, and is currently being tested in the IDC network processing pipelines. A key distinguishing feature of NET-VISA is that it is easy to incorporate prior scientific knowledge and historical data into the probabilistic model. The model accounts for both detections and mis-detections when forming events, and this allows it to make more accurate event hypothesis. It has been continuously evaluated since 2012, and in each year it makes a roughly 60% reduction in the number of missed events without increasing the false event rate as compared to the existing GA algorithm. More importantly the model finds large numbers of events that have been confirmed by regional seismic bulletins but missed by the IDC analysts using the same data. In this work we focus on enhancements to the model to improve the location accuracy, and error ellipses. We will present a new version of the model that focuses on the fine scale around the event location, and present error ellipses and analysis of recent important events.

Interplanetary field and plasma during initial phase of geomagnetic storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, V. L.; Wiskerchen, M. J.

1975-01-01

A study has been conducted of a large number of geomagnetic storms occurring during the period from 1966 to 1970. Questions of data selection are discussed and the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field during the initial phase is examined. Small-scale interplanetary fields during the initial phase are also considered, taking into account important features of small-scale variations in the interplanetary field and plasma for three storms. Details concerning 23 geomagnetic storms and the interplanetary magnetic field are presented in a table. A study of the initial phase of these storms indicates that in most of these events, the solar-ecliptic Z component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward when the main phase decrease begins.

SIGN SINGULARITY AND FLARES IN SOLAR ACTIVE REGION NOAA 11158

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorriso-Valvo, L.; De Vita, G.; Kazachenko, M. D.

Solar Active Region NOAA 11158 has hosted a number of strong flares, including one X2.2 event. The complexity of current density and current helicity are studied through cancellation analysis of their sign-singular measure, which features power-law scaling. Spectral analysis is also performed, revealing the presence of two separate scaling ranges with different spectral index. The time evolution of parameters is discussed. Sudden changes of the cancellation exponents at the time of large flares and the presence of correlation with Extreme-Ultra-Violet and X-ray flux suggest that eruption of large flares can be linked to the small-scale properties of the current structures.

Legume genome evolution viewed through the Medicago truncatula and Lotus japonicus genomes

PubMed Central

Cannon, Steven B.; Sterck, Lieven; Rombauts, Stephane; Sato, Shusei; Cheung, Foo; Gouzy, Jérôme; Wang, Xiaohong; Mudge, Joann; Vasdewani, Jayprakash; Schiex, Thomas; Spannagl, Manuel; Monaghan, Erin; Nicholson, Christine; Humphray, Sean J.; Schoof, Heiko; Mayer, Klaus F. X.; Rogers, Jane; Quétier, Francis; Oldroyd, Giles E.; Debellé, Frédéric; Cook, Douglas R.; Retzel, Ernest F.; Roe, Bruce A.; Town, Christopher D.; Tabata, Satoshi; Van de Peer, Yves; Young, Nevin D.

2006-01-01

Genome sequencing of the model legumes, Medicago truncatula and Lotus japonicus, provides an opportunity for large-scale sequence-based comparison of two genomes in the same plant family. Here we report synteny comparisons between these species, including details about chromosome relationships, large-scale synteny blocks, microsynteny within blocks, and genome regions lacking clear correspondence. The Lotus and Medicago genomes share a minimum of 10 large-scale synteny blocks, each with substantial collinearity and frequently extending the length of whole chromosome arms. The proportion of genes syntenic and collinear within each synteny block is relatively homogeneous. Medicago–Lotus comparisons also indicate similar and largely homogeneous gene densities, although gene-containing regions in Mt occupy 20–30% more space than Lj counterparts, primarily because of larger numbers of Mt retrotransposons. Because the interpretation of genome comparisons is complicated by large-scale genome duplications, we describe synteny, synonymous substitutions and phylogenetic analyses to identify and date a probable whole-genome duplication event. There is no direct evidence for any recent large-scale genome duplication in either Medicago or Lotus but instead a duplication predating speciation. Phylogenetic comparisons place this duplication within the Rosid I clade, clearly after the split between legumes and Salicaceae (poplar). PMID:17003129

High Fidelity Simulations of Large-Scale Wireless Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onunkwo, Uzoma; Benz, Zachary

The worldwide proliferation of wireless connected devices continues to accelerate. There are 10s of billions of wireless links across the planet with an additional explosion of new wireless usage anticipated as the Internet of Things develops. Wireless technologies do not only provide convenience for mobile applications, but are also extremely cost-effective to deploy. Thus, this trend towards wireless connectivity will only continue and Sandia must develop the necessary simulation technology to proactively analyze the associated emerging vulnerabilities. Wireless networks are marked by mobility and proximity-based connectivity. The de facto standard for exploratory studies of wireless networks is discrete event simulationsmore » (DES). However, the simulation of large-scale wireless networks is extremely difficult due to prohibitively large turnaround time. A path forward is to expedite simulations with parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) techniques. The mobility and distance-based connectivity associated with wireless simulations, however, typically doom PDES and fail to scale (e.g., OPNET and ns-3 simulators). We propose a PDES-based tool aimed at reducing the communication overhead between processors. The proposed solution will use light-weight processes to dynamically distribute computation workload while mitigating communication overhead associated with synchronizations. This work is vital to the analytics and validation capabilities of simulation and emulation at Sandia. We have years of experience in Sandia’s simulation and emulation projects (e.g., MINIMEGA and FIREWHEEL). Sandia’s current highly-regarded capabilities in large-scale emulations have focused on wired networks, where two assumptions prevent scalable wireless studies: (a) the connections between objects are mostly static and (b) the nodes have fixed locations.« less

Cumulative Damage in Strength-Dominated Collisions of Rocky Asteroids: Rubble Piles and Brick Piles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housen, Kevin

2009-01-01

Laboratory impact experiments were performed to investigate the conditions that produce large-scale damage in rock targets. Aluminum cylinders (6.3 mm diameter) impacted basalt cylinders (69 mm diameter) at speeds ranging from 0.7 to 2.0 km/s. Diagnostics included measurements of the largest fragment mass, velocities of the largest remnant and large fragments ejected from the periphery of the target, and X-ray computed tomography imaging to inspect some of the impacted targets for internal damage. Significant damage to the target occurred when the kinetic energy per unit target mass exceeded roughly 1/4 of the energy required for catastrophic shattering (where the target is reduced to one-half its original mass). Scaling laws based on a rate-dependent strength were developed that provide a basis for extrapolating the results to larger strength-dominated collisions. The threshold specific energy for widespread damage was found to scale with event size in the same manner as that for catastrophic shattering. Therefore, the factor of four difference between the two thresholds observed in the lab also applies to larger collisions. The scaling laws showed that for a sequence of collisions that are similar in that they produce the same ratio of largest fragment mass to original target mass, the fragment velocities decrease with increasing event size. As a result, rocky asteroids a couple hundred meters in diameter should retain their large ejecta fragments in a jumbled rubble-pile state. For somewhat larger bodies, the ejection velocities are sufficiently low that large fragments are essentially retained in place, possibly forming ordered "brick-pile" structures.

Deposits of Large-scale Mass Movements in the Sediments of Hallstätter See (Austria) - Recurrent Natural Hazards at a UNESCO World Cultural Heritage Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterbach, S.; Strasser, M.; Tjallingii, R.; Kowarik, K.; Reschreiter, H.; Spatl, C.; Brauer, A.

2017-12-01

The cultural importance of underground salt mining in Hallstatt (Austria), which is documented since the Middle Bronze Age, has been recognized already 20 years ago by assigning the status of a UNESCO World Cultural Heritage Site to the Hallstatt area, particularly because of the wealth of archaeological artefacts from the Early Iron Age. Local mining activity is well documented for prehistoric times and known to have been repeatedly affected by large-scale mass movements, for example at the end of the Bronze Age and during the Late Iron Age. In contrast, evidence of mining activity between the 5th and late 13th century AD is scarce, which could be related to socio-economic changes but also to continued mass movement activity, possibly biasing the archaeological record. Within the present study, a 15.63-m-long 14C-dated sediment core from Hallstätter See has been investigated with respect to the deposits of large-scale mass movements. Most of the lake sediment sequence consists of cm- to sub-mm-scale laminated carbonate mud with frequently intercalated small-scale turbidites, reflecting seasonally variable detrital input from the tributaries, but two major event layers clearly stand out. The upper one comprises a 2.45-m-thick basal mass transport deposit (containing folded laminated sediments, homogenized sediments with liquefaction structures, and coarse gravel) and an overlying 1.45-m-thick co-genetic turbidite. From the lower event layer only the topmost part of the turbiditic sequence with a (minimum) thickness of 1.49 m was recovered. Based on their sedimentological characteristics, both event layers are interpreted as the subaqueous continuation of large-scale mass movements, which occurred at ca. 1050 and 2300 cal. years BP and possibly originated from the rock walls along the western lake shore where also the salt mining area is located. This indicates that mass movement activity not only threatened prehistoric salt mining, but occurred also repeatedly during the Common Era, possibly explaining the lack of archaeological evidence of mining activity between the 5th and late 13th century AD. However, a direct spatial and temporal relationship between documented mass movements in the mining area and those recorded in the lake sediments cannot be proven at present and requires further investigations.

Fault-Tolerant Sequencer Using FPGA-Based Logic Designs for Space Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Prototype Board SBU single bit upset SDK software development kit SDRAM synchronous dynamic random-access memory SEB single-event burnout ...current VHDL VHSIC hardware description language VHSIC very-high-speed integrated circuits VLSI very-large- scale integration VQFP very...transient pulse, called a single-event transient (SET), or even cause permanent damage to the device in the form of a burnout or gate rupture. The SEE

Experimental evaluation of the sustainability of dwarf bamboo (Pseudosasa usawai) sprout-harvesting practices in Yangminshan National Park, Taiwan.

PubMed

Liao, Chi-Cheng; Chang, Chi-Ru; Hsu, Meng-Ting; Poo, Wak-Kim

2014-08-01

Sustainable harvest of natural products that meets the needs of local people has been viewed by many as an important means for sustaining conservation projects. Although plants often respond to tissue damage through compensatory growth, it may not secure long-term sustainability of the populations because many plants enhance individual well-being at the expense of propagation. Sustainability may further be threatened by infrequent, large-scale events, especially ill-documented ones. We studied the impacts of sprout harvesting on sprout growth in a dwarf bamboo (Pseudosasa usawai) population that has seemingly recovered from an infrequent, large-scale masting event. Experimental results suggest that although a single sprout harvest did not significantly alter the subsequent abundance and structure of sprouts, culm damage that accompanied sprout harvesting resulted in shorter, thinner, and fewer sprouts. Weaker recovery was found in windward, continually harvested, and more severely damaged sites. These findings suggest that sprout growth of damaged dwarf bamboos is likely non-compensatory, but is instead supported through physiological integration whose strength is determined by the well-being of the supplying ramets. Healthy culms closer to the damage also provided more resources than those farther away. Sustainable harvesting of sprouts could benefit from organized community efforts to limit the magnitude of culm damage, provide adequate spacing between harvested sites, and ensure sufficient time interval between harvests. Vegetation boundaries relatively resilient to infrequent, large-scale events are likely maintained by climatic factors and may be sensitive to climate change. Continual monitoring is, therefore, integral to the sustainability of harvesting projects.

A variational approach to probing extreme events in turbulent dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Farazmand, Mohammad; Sapsis, Themistoklis P.

2017-01-01

Extreme events are ubiquitous in a wide range of dynamical systems, including turbulent fluid flows, nonlinear waves, large-scale networks, and biological systems. We propose a variational framework for probing conditions that trigger intermittent extreme events in high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems. We seek the triggers as the probabilistically feasible solutions of an appropriately constrained optimization problem, where the function to be maximized is a system observable exhibiting intermittent extreme bursts. The constraints are imposed to ensure the physical admissibility of the optimal solutions, that is, significant probability for their occurrence under the natural flow of the dynamical system. We apply the method to a body-forced incompressible Navier-Stokes equation, known as the Kolmogorov flow. We find that the intermittent bursts of the energy dissipation are independent of the external forcing and are instead caused by the spontaneous transfer of energy from large scales to the mean flow via nonlinear triad interactions. The global maximizer of the corresponding variational problem identifies the responsible triad, hence providing a precursor for the occurrence of extreme dissipation events. Specifically, monitoring the energy transfers within this triad allows us to develop a data-driven short-term predictor for the intermittent bursts of energy dissipation. We assess the performance of this predictor through direct numerical simulations. PMID:28948226

Large-scale particle acceleration by magnetic reconnection during solar flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Guo, F.; Li, H.; Li, G.; Li, S.

2017-12-01

Magnetic reconnection that triggers explosive magnetic energy release has been widely invoked to explain the large-scale particle acceleration during solar flares. While great efforts have been spent in studying the acceleration mechanism in small-scale kinetic simulations, there have been rare studies that make predictions to acceleration in the large scale comparable to the flare reconnection region. Here we present a new arrangement to study this problem. We solve the large-scale energetic-particle transport equation in the fluid velocity and magnetic fields from high-Lundquist-number MHD simulations of reconnection layers. This approach is based on examining the dominant acceleration mechanism and pitch-angle scattering in kinetic simulations. Due to the fluid compression in reconnection outflows and merging magnetic islands, particles are accelerated to high energies and develop power-law energy distributions. We find that the acceleration efficiency and power-law index depend critically on upstream plasma beta and the magnitude of guide field (the magnetic field component perpendicular to the reconnecting component) as they influence the compressibility of the reconnection layer. We also find that the accelerated high-energy particles are mostly concentrated in large magnetic islands, making the islands a source of energetic particles and high-energy emissions. These findings may provide explanations for acceleration process in large-scale magnetic reconnection during solar flares and the temporal and spatial emission properties observed in different flare events.

Ensemble Kalman filters for dynamical systems with unresolved turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grooms, Ian, E-mail: grooms@cims.nyu.edu; Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

Ensemble Kalman filters are developed for turbulent dynamical systems where the forecast model does not resolve all the active scales of motion. Coarse-resolution models are intended to predict the large-scale part of the true dynamics, but observations invariably include contributions from both the resolved large scales and the unresolved small scales. The error due to the contribution of unresolved scales to the observations, called ‘representation’ or ‘representativeness’ error, is often included as part of the observation error, in addition to the raw measurement error, when estimating the large-scale part of the system. It is here shown how stochastic superparameterization (amore » multiscale method for subgridscale parameterization) can be used to provide estimates of the statistics of the unresolved scales. In addition, a new framework is developed wherein small-scale statistics can be used to estimate both the resolved and unresolved components of the solution. The one-dimensional test problem from dispersive wave turbulence used here is computationally tractable yet is particularly difficult for filtering because of the non-Gaussian extreme event statistics and substantial small scale turbulence: a shallow energy spectrum proportional to k{sup −5/6} (where k is the wavenumber) results in two-thirds of the climatological variance being carried by the unresolved small scales. Because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, filters that ignore the representation error fail utterly to provide meaningful estimates of the system state. Inclusion of a time-independent climatological estimate of the representation error in a standard framework leads to inaccurate estimates of the large-scale part of the signal; accurate estimates of the large scales are only achieved by using stochastic superparameterization to provide evolving, large-scale dependent predictions of the small-scale statistics. Again, because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, even an accurate estimate of the large-scale part of the system does not provide an accurate estimate of the true state. By providing simultaneous estimates of both the large- and small-scale parts of the solution, the new framework is able to provide accurate estimates of the true system state.« less

Ecosystem transformation by emerging infectious disease: loss of large tanoak from California forests

Treesearch

Richard C. Cobb; Joao A.N. Filipe; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Christopher A. Gilligan; David M. Rizzo

2012-01-01

1. Few pathogens are the sole or primary cause of species extinctions, but forest disease has caused spectacular declines in North American overstorey trees and restructured forest ecosystems at large spatial scales over the past 100 years. These events threaten biodiversity associated with impacted host trees and other resources valued by human societies even when...

Observational constraints on earthquake source scaling: Understanding the limits in resolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.

1996-01-01

I examine the resolution of the type of stress drop estimates that have been used to place observational constraints on the scaling of earthquake source processes. I first show that apparent stress and Brune stress drop are equivalent to within a constant given any source spectral decay between ??1.5 and ??3 (i.e., any plausible value) and so consistent scaling is expected for the two estimates. I then discuss the resolution and scaling of Brune stress drop estimates, in the context of empirical Green's function results from recent earthquake sequences, including the 1992 Joshua Tree, California, mainshock and its aftershocks. I show that no definitive scaling of stress drop with moment is revealed over the moment range 1019-1025; within this sequence, however, there is a tendency for moderate-sized (M 4-5) events to be characterized by high stress drops. However, well-resolved results for recent M > 6 events are inconsistent with any extrapolated stress increase with moment for the aftershocks. Focusing on comer frequency estimates for smaller (M < 3.5) events, I show that resolution is extremely limited even after empirical Green's function deconvolutions. A fundamental limitation to resolution is the paucity of good signal-to-noise at frequencies above 60 Hz, a limitation that will affect nearly all surficial recordings of ground motion in California and many other regions. Thus, while the best available observational results support a constant stress drop for moderate-to large-sized events, very little robust observational evidence exists to constrain the quantities that bear most critically on our understanding of source processes: stress drop values and stress drop scaling for small events.

Induced Seismicity Potential of Energy Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hitzman, Murray

2013-03-01

Earthquakes attributable to human activities-``induced seismic events''-have received heightened public attention in the United States over the past several years. Upon request from the U.S. Congress and the Department of Energy, the National Research Council was asked to assemble a committee of experts to examine the scale, scope, and consequences of seismicity induced during fluid injection and withdrawal associated with geothermal energy development, oil and gas development, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The committee's report, publicly released in June 2012, indicates that induced seismicity associated with fluid injection or withdrawal is caused in most cases by change in pore fluid pressure and/or change in stress in the subsurface in the presence of faults with specific properties and orientations and a critical state of stress in the rocks. The factor that appears to have the most direct consequence in regard to induced seismicity is the net fluid balance (total balance of fluid introduced into or removed from the subsurface). Energy technology projects that are designed to maintain a balance between the amount of fluid being injected and withdrawn, such as most oil and gas development projects, appear to produce fewer seismic events than projects that do not maintain fluid balance. Major findings from the study include: (1) as presently implemented, the process of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas recovery does not pose a high risk for inducing felt seismic events; (2) injection for disposal of waste water derived from energy technologies does pose some risk for induced seismicity, but very few events have been documented over the past several decades relative to the large number of disposal wells in operation; and (3) CCS, due to the large net volumes of injected fluids suggested for future large-scale carbon storage projects, may have potential for inducing larger seismic events.

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

A Black Swan and Sub-continental Scale Dynamics in Humid, Late-Holocene Broadleaf Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pederson, N.; Dyer, J.; McEwan, R.; Hessl, A. E.; Mock, C. J.; Orwig, D.; Rieder, H. E.; Cook, B. I.

2012-12-01

In humid regions with dense broadleaf-dominated forests where gap-dynamics is the prevailing disturbance regime, paleoecological evidence shows regional-scale changes in forest composition associated with climatic change. To investigate the potential for regional events in late-Holocene forests, we use tree-ring data from 76 populations covering 840,000 km2 and 5.3k tree recruitment dates spanning 1.4 million km2 in the eastern US to investigate the occurrence of simultaneous forest dynamics across a humid region. We compare regional forest dynamics with an independent set of annually-resolved tree ring record of hydroclimate to examine whether climate dynamics might drive forest dynamics in this humid region. In forests where light availability is an important limitation for tree recruitment, we document a pulse of tree recruitment during the mid- to late-1600s across the eastern US. This pulse, which can be inferred as large-scale canopy opening, occurred during an era that multiple proxies indicate as extended drought between two intense pluvial. Principal component analysis of the 76 populations indicates a step-change increase in average ring width during the late-1770s resembling a potential canopy accession event over 42,800 km2 of the southeastern US. Growth-release analysis of populations loading strongly on this eigenvector indicates severe canopy disturbance from 1775-1779 that peaked in 1776. The 1776 event follows a period with extended droughts and severe large-scale frost event. We hypothesize these climatic events lead to elevated tree mortality in the late-1770s and canopy accession for understory trees. Superposed epoch analysis reveals that spikes of elevated canopy disturbance from 1685-1850 CE are significantly associated with drought. Extreme value theory statistics indicates the 1776 event lies beyond the 99.9 quantile and nearly 7 sigmas above the 1685-1850 mean rate of disturbance. The time-series of canopy disturbance from 1685-1850 is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be considered 'heavy tailed'. Preliminary results show that disturbance events that affect >3-5% of the trees in our dataset occur approximately every 200 years. The most extreme rates (>5%) occur approximately every 500-1000 years. These statistics indicate that the 1775-1779 heavy-tail event can also be considered a 'Black Swan', the rare event that has the potential to alter a system's trajectory further than common events. Our results challenge traditional views regarding characteristic disturbance regime in humid temperate forests, and speak to the importance of punctuated climatic events in shaping forest structure for centuries. Such an understanding is critical given the potential of more frequent extreme climatic events in the future.

Using Hybrid Techniques for Generating Watershed-scale Flood Models in an Integrated Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P.

2017-12-01

There is an increasing global trend towards developing large scale flood models that account for spatial heterogeneity at watershed scales to drive the future flood risk planning. Integrated surface water-groundwater modeling procedures can elucidate all the hydrologic processes taking part during a flood event to provide accurate flood outputs. Even though the advantages of using integrated modeling are widely acknowledged, the complexity of integrated process representation, computation time and number of input parameters required have deterred its application to flood inundation mapping, especially for large watersheds. This study presents a faster approach for creating watershed scale flood models using a hybrid design that breaks down the watershed into multiple regions of variable spatial resolution by prioritizing higher order streams. The methodology involves creating a hybrid model for the Upper Wabash River Basin in Indiana using Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) and comparing the performance with a fully-integrated 2D hydrodynamic model. The hybrid approach involves simplification procedures such as 1D channel-2D floodplain coupling; hydrologic basin (HUC-12) integration with 2D groundwater for rainfall-runoff routing; and varying spatial resolution of 2D overland flow based on stream order. The results for a 50-year return period storm event show that hybrid model (NSE=0.87) performance is similar to the 2D integrated model (NSE=0.88) but the computational time is reduced to half. The results suggest that significant computational efficiency can be obtained while maintaining model accuracy for large-scale flood models by using hybrid approaches for model creation.

Data Bookkeeping Service 3 - Providing Event Metadata in CMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giffels, Manuel; Guo, Y.; Riley, Daniel

The Data Bookkeeping Service 3 provides a catalog of event metadata for Monte Carlo and recorded data of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN, Geneva. It comprises all necessary information for tracking datasets, their processing history and associations between runs, files and datasets, on a large scale of about 200, 000 datasets and more than 40 million files, which adds up in around 700 GB of metadata. The DBS is an essential part of the CMS Data Management and Workload Management (DMWM) systems [1], all kind of data-processing like Monte Carlo production,more » processing of recorded event data as well as physics analysis done by the users are heavily relying on the information stored in DBS.« less

The Ramifications of Meddling with Systems Governed by Self-organized Critical Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carreras, B. A.; Newman, D. E.; Dobson, I.

2002-12-01

Complex natural, well as man-made, systems often exhibit characteristics similar to those seen in self-organized critical (SOC) systems. The concept of self-organized criticality brings together ideas of self-organization of nonlinear dynamical systems with the often-observed near critical behavior of many natural phenomena. These phenomena exhibit self-similarities over extended ranges of spatial and temporal scales. In those systems, scale lengths may be described by fractal geometry and time scales that lead to 1/f-like power spectra. Natural applications include modeling the motion of tectonics plates, forest fires, magnetospheric dynamics, spin glass systems, and turbulent transport. In man-made systems, applications have included traffic dynamics, power and communications networks, and financial markets among many others. Simple cellular automata models such as the running sandpile model have been very useful in reproducing the complexity and characteristics of these systems. One characteristic property of the SOC systems is that they relax through what we call events. These events can happen over all scales of the system. Examples of these events are: earthquakes in the case of plate tectonic; fires in forest evolution extinction in the co evolution of biological species; and blackouts in power transmission systems. In a time-averaged sense, these systems are subcritical (that is, they lie in an average state that should not trigger any events) and the relaxation events happen intermittently. The time spent in a subcritical state relative to the time of the events varies from one system to another. For instance, the chance of finding a forest on fire is very low with the frequency of fires being on the order of one fire every few years and with many of these fires small and inconsequential. Very large fires happen over time periods of decades or even centuries. However, because of their consequences, these large but infrequent events are the important ones to understand, control and minimize. The main thrust of this research is to understand how and when global events occur in such systems when we apply mitigation techniques and how this impacts risk assessment. As sample systems we investigate both forest fire models and electrical power transmission network models, though the results are probably applicable to a wide variety of systems. It is found, perhaps counter intuitively, that apparently sensible attempts to mitigate failures in such complex systems can have adverse effects and therefore must be approached with care. The success of mitigation efforts in SOC systems is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the system. Unless the mitigation efforts alter the self-organization forces driving the system, the system will in general be pushed toward criticality. To alter those forces with mitigation efforts may be quite difficult because the forces are an intrinsic part of the system. Moreover, in many cases, efforts to mitigate small disruptions will increase the frequency of large disruptions. This occurs because the large and small disruptions are not independent but are strongly coupled by the dynamics. Before discussing this in the more complicated case of power systems, we will illustrate this phenomenon with a forest fire model.

The recent breakup of an asteroid in the main-belt region.

PubMed

Nesvorný, David; Bottke, William F; Dones, Luke; Levison, Harold F

2002-06-13

The present population of asteroids in the main belt is largely the result of many past collisions. Ideally, the asteroid fragments resulting from each impact event could help us understand the large-scale collisions that shaped the planets during early epochs. Most known asteroid fragment families, however, are very old and have therefore undergone significant collisional and dynamical evolution since their formation. This evolution has masked the properties of the original collisions. Here we report the discovery of a family of asteroids that formed in a disruption event only 5.8 +/- 0.2 million years ago, and which has subsequently undergone little dynamical and collisional evolution. We identified 39 fragments, two of which are large and comparable in size (diameters of approximately 19 and approximately 14 km), with the remainder exhibiting a continuum of sizes in the range 2-7 km. The low measured ejection velocities suggest that gravitational re-accumulation after a collision may be a common feature of asteroid evolution. Moreover, these data can be used to check numerical models of larger-scale collisions.

Landslides and Landscape Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Densmore, A. L.; Hovius, N.

2017-12-01

Landslides have long been recognised as a major hazard, and are a common product of both large earthquakes and rainstorms. Our appreciation for landslides as agents of erosion and land surface evolution, however, is much more recent. Only in the last twenty years have we come to understand the critical role that landslides play at the landscape scale: in allowing hillslopes to keep pace with fluvial incision, in supplying sediment to channel networks and sedimentary basins, in divide migration, and in setting the basic structure of the landscape. This perspective has been made possible in part by repeat remote sensing and new ways of visualising the land surface, and by extending our understanding of failure processes to the landscape scale; but it is also true that the big jumps in our knowledge have been triggered by large events, such as the 1999 Chi-Chi and 2008 Wenchuan earthquakes. Thanks in part to a relative handful of such case studies, we now have a better idea of the spatial distribution of landslides that are triggered in large events, the volume of sediment that they mobilise, the time scales over which that sediment is mobilised and evacuated, and the overall volume balance between erosion and tectonic processes in the growth of mountainous topography. There remain, however, some major challenges that must still be overcome. Estimates of landslide volume remain highly uncertain, as does our ability to predict the evolution of hillslope propensity to failure after a major triggering event, the movement of landslide sediment (especially the coarse fraction that is transported as bedload), and the impact of landslides on both long-term erosion rates and tectonic processes. The limited range of case studies also means that we struggle to predict outcomes for triggering events in different geological settings, such as loess landscapes or massive lithologies. And the perspective afforded by taking a landscape-scale view has yet to be fully reflected in our approach to landslide hazard. We close by outlining some promising future research directions by which these challenges might be overcome.

Large Fluctuations for Spatial Diffusion of Cold Atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghion, Erez; Kessler, David A.; Barkai, Eli

2017-06-01

We use a new approach to study the large fluctuations of a heavy-tailed system, where the standard large-deviations principle does not apply. Large-deviations theory deals with tails of probability distributions and the rare events of random processes, for example, spreading packets of particles. Mathematically, it concerns the exponential falloff of the density of thin-tailed systems. Here we investigate the spatial density Pt(x ) of laser-cooled atoms, where at intermediate length scales the shape is fat tailed. We focus on the rare events beyond this range, which dominate important statistical properties of the system. Through a novel friction mechanism induced by the laser fields, the density is explored with the recently proposed non-normalized infinite-covariant density approach. The small and large fluctuations give rise to a bifractal nature of the spreading packet. We derive general relations which extend our theory to a class of systems with multifractal moments.

National Earthquake Information Center Seismic Event Detections on Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, J.; Yeck, W. L.; Benz, H.; Earle, P. S.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Johnson, C. E.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) monitors seismicity on local, regional, and global scales using automatic picks from more than 2,000 near-real time seismic stations. This presents unique challenges in automated event detection due to the high variability in data quality, network geometries and density, and distance-dependent variability in observed seismic signals. To lower the overall detection threshold while minimizing false detection rates, NEIC has begun to test the incorporation of new detection and picking algorithms, including multiband (Lomax et al., 2012) and kurtosis (Baillard et al., 2014) pickers, and a new bayesian associator (Glass 3.0). The Glass 3.0 associator allows for simultaneous processing of variably scaled detection grids, each with a unique set of nucleation criteria (e.g., nucleation threshold, minimum associated picks, nucleation phases) to meet specific monitoring goals. We test the efficacy of these new tools on event detection in networks of various scales and geometries, compare our results with previous catalogs, and discuss lessons learned. For example, we find that on local and regional scales, rapid nucleation of small events may require event nucleation with both P and higher-amplitude secondary phases (e.g., S or Lg). We provide examples of the implementation of a scale-independent associator for an induced seismicity sequence (local-scale), a large aftershock sequence (regional-scale), and for monitoring global seismicity. Baillard, C., Crawford, W. C., Ballu, V., Hibert, C., & Mangeney, A. (2014). An automatic kurtosis-based P-and S-phase picker designed for local seismic networks. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(1), 394-409. Lomax, A., Satriano, C., & Vassallo, M. (2012). Automatic picker developments and optimization: FilterPicker - a robust, broadband picker for real-time seismic monitoring and earthquake early-warning, Seism. Res. Lett. , 83, 531-540, doi: 10.1785/gssrl.83.3.531.

Large-scale climatic phenomena drive fluctuations in macroinvertebrate assemblages in lowland tropical streams, Costa Rica: The importance of ENSO events in determining long-term (15y) patterns

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Alonso; Pringle, Catherine M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how environmental variables influence the distribution and density of organisms over relatively long temporal scales is a central question in ecology given increased climatic variability (e.g., precipitation, ENSO events). The primary goal of our study was to evaluate long-term (15y time span) patterns of climate, as well as environmental parameters in two Neotropical streams in lowland Costa Rica, to assess potential effects on aquatic macroinvertebrates. We also examined the relative effects of an 8y whole-stream P-enrichment experiment on macroinvertebrate assemblages against the backdrop of this long-term study. Climate, environmental variables and macroinvertebrate samples were measured monthly for 7y and then quarterly for an additional 8y in each stream. Temporal patterns in climatic and environmental variables showed high variability over time, without clear inter-annual or intra-annual patterns. Macroinvertebrate richness and abundance decreased with increasing discharge and was positively related to the number of days since the last high discharge event. Findings show that fluctuations in stream physicochemistry and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure are ultimately the result of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as ENSO events, while the 8y P-enrichment did not appear to affect macroinvertebrates. Our study demonstrates that Neotropical lowland streams are highly dynamic and not as stable as is commonly presumed, with high intra- and inter-annual variability in environmental parameters that change the structure and composition of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages. PMID:29420548

Rain Characteristics and Large-Scale Environments of Precipitation Objects with Extreme Rain Volumes from TRMM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K M.; Liu, Chuntao

2013-01-01

This study adopts a "precipitation object" approach by using 14 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Feature (PF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data to study rainfall structure and environmental factors associated with extreme heavy rain events. Characteristics of instantaneous extreme volumetric PFs are examined and compared to those of intermediate and small systems. It is found that instantaneous PFs exhibit a much wider scale range compared to the daily gridded precipitation accumulation range. The top 1% of the rainiest PFs contribute over 55% of total rainfall and have 2 orders of rain volume magnitude greater than those of the median PFs. We find a threshold near the top 10% beyond which the PFs grow exponentially into larger, deeper, and colder rain systems. NCEP reanalyses show that midlevel relative humidity and total precipitable water increase steadily with increasingly larger PFs, along with a rapid increase of 500 hPa upward vertical velocity beyond the top 10%. This provides the necessary moisture convergence to amplify and sustain the extreme events. The rapid increase in vertical motion is associated with the release of convective available potential energy (CAPE) in mature systems, as is evident in the increase in CAPE of PFs up to 10% and the subsequent dropoff. The study illustrates distinct stages in the development of an extreme rainfall event including: (1) a systematic buildup in large-scale temperature and moisture, (2) a rapid change in rain structure, (3) explosive growth of the PF size, and (4) a release of CAPE before the demise of the event.

Spatio-temporal variability of dryness/wetness in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and correlation with large-scale climatic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xinchi; Zhang, Liping; Zou, Lei; Shan, Lijie; She, Dunxian

2018-02-01

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLYR) are greatly affected by frequent drought/flooding events and abrupt alternations of these events in China. The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of dryness/wetness based on the data obtained from 75 meteorological stations in the MLYR for the period 1960-2015 and investigate the correlations between dryness/wetness and atmospheric circulation factors. The empirical orthogonal function method was applied in this study based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Index at a 12-month time scale. The first leading pattern captured the same characteristics of dryness/wetness over the entire MLYR area and accounted for 40.87% of the total variance. Both the second and third leading patterns manifested as regional features of variability over the entire MLYR. The cross-wavelet transform method was applied to explore the potential relationship between the three leading patterns and the large-scale climate factors, and finally the relationships between drought/wetness events and climate factors were also analyzed. Our results indicated that the main patterns of dryness/wetness were primarily associated with the Niño 3.4, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Oscillation Index and Northern Oscillation Index, with the first pattern exhibiting noticeable periods and remarkable changes in phase with the indices.

Development of a flash flood warning system based on real-time radar data and process-based erosion modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindewolf, Marcus; Kaiser, Andreas; Buchholtz, Arno; Schmidt, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Extreme rainfall events and resulting flash floods led to massive devastations in Germany during spring 2016. The study presented aims on the development of a early warning system, which allows the simulation and assessment of negative effects on infrastructure by radar-based heavy rainfall predictions, serving as input data for the process-based soil loss and deposition model EROSION 3D. Our approach enables a detailed identification of runoff and sediment fluxes in agricultural used landscapes. In a first step, documented historical events were analyzed concerning the accordance of measured radar rainfall and large scale erosion risk maps. A second step focused on a small scale erosion monitoring via UAV of source areas of heavy flooding events and a model reconstruction of the processes involved. In all examples damages were caused to local infrastructure. Both analyses are promising in order to detect runoff and sediment delivering areas even in a high temporal and spatial resolution. Results prove the important role of late-covering crops such as maize, sugar beet or potatoes in runoff generation. While e.g. winter wheat positively affects extensive runoff generation on undulating landscapes, massive soil loss and thus muddy flows are observed and depicted in model results. Future research aims on large scale model parameterization and application in real time, uncertainty estimation of precipitation forecast and interface developments.

Simulating statistics of lightning-induced and man made fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krenn, R.; Hergarten, S.

2009-04-01

The frequency-area distributions of forest fires show power-law behavior with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organized criticality. Examples of self-organized critical behavior can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automata. The established self-organized critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model (DS-FFM) is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the DS-FFM apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a straightforward modification of the model rules that increases the scaling exponent α by approximately 1•3 and brings the simulated event-size statistics close to those observed in nature. In addition, combined simulations of both the original and the modified model predict a dependence of the overall distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a difference between their respective event-size statistics. The increase of the scaling exponent with decreasing lightning probability as well as the splitting of the partial distributions are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database. As a consequence, lightning induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modeling, hazard assessment and forest management.

Microwave evidence for large-scale changes associated with a filament eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundu, M. R.; Schmahl, E. J.; Fu, Q.-J.

1989-01-01

VLA observations at 6 and 20 cm wavelengths taken on August 3, 1985 are presented, showing an eruptive filament event in which microwave emission originated in two widely separated regions during the disintegration of the filament. The amount of heat required for the enhancement is estimated. Near-simultaneous changes in intensity and polarization were observed in the western components of the northern and southern regions. It is suggested that large-scale magnetic interconnections permitted the two regions to respond similarly to an external energy or mass source involved in the disruption of the filament.

Investigation of the Large Scale Evolution and Topology of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riley, Peter

1999-01-01

This investigation is concerned with the large-scale evolution and topology of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the solar wind. During this reporting period we have analyzed a series of low density intervals in the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) plasma data set that bear many similarities to CMEs. We have begun a series of 3D, MHD (Magnetohydrodynamics) coronal models to probe potential causes of these events. We also edited two manuscripts concerning the properties of CMEs in the solar wind. One was re-submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research.

Alternatively Spliced Homologous Exons Have Ancient Origins and Are Highly Expressed at the Protein Level

PubMed Central

Abascal, Federico; Ezkurdia, Iakes; Rodriguez-Rivas, Juan; Rodriguez, Jose Manuel; del Pozo, Angela; Vázquez, Jesús; Valencia, Alfonso; Tress, Michael L.

2015-01-01

Alternative splicing of messenger RNA can generate a wide variety of mature RNA transcripts, and these transcripts may produce protein isoforms with diverse cellular functions. While there is much supporting evidence for the expression of alternative transcripts, the same is not true for the alternatively spliced protein products. Large-scale mass spectroscopy experiments have identified evidence of alternative splicing at the protein level, but with conflicting results. Here we carried out a rigorous analysis of the peptide evidence from eight large-scale proteomics experiments to assess the scale of alternative splicing that is detectable by high-resolution mass spectroscopy. We find fewer splice events than would be expected: we identified peptides for almost 64% of human protein coding genes, but detected just 282 splice events. This data suggests that most genes have a single dominant isoform at the protein level. Many of the alternative isoforms that we could identify were only subtly different from the main splice isoform. Very few of the splice events identified at the protein level disrupted functional domains, in stark contrast to the two thirds of splice events annotated in the human genome that would lead to the loss or damage of functional domains. The most striking result was that more than 20% of the splice isoforms we identified were generated by substituting one homologous exon for another. This is significantly more than would be expected from the frequency of these events in the genome. These homologous exon substitution events were remarkably conserved—all the homologous exons we identified evolved over 460 million years ago—and eight of the fourteen tissue-specific splice isoforms we identified were generated from homologous exons. The combination of proteomics evidence, ancient origin and tissue-specific splicing indicates that isoforms generated from homologous exons may have important cellular roles. PMID:26061177

Estimating Rain Rates from Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauge Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jianxin; Fisher, Brad L.; Wolff, David B.

2007-01-01

This paper describes the cubic spline based operational system for the generation of the TRMM one-minute rain rate product 2A-56 from Tipping Bucket (TB) gauge measurements. Methodological issues associated with applying the cubic spline to the TB gauge rain rate estimation are closely examined. A simulated TB gauge from a Joss-Waldvogel (JW) disdrometer is employed to evaluate effects of time scales and rain event definitions on errors of the rain rate estimation. The comparison between rain rates measured from the JW disdrometer and those estimated from the simulated TB gauge shows good overall agreement; however, the TB gauge suffers sampling problems, resulting in errors in the rain rate estimation. These errors are very sensitive to the time scale of rain rates. One-minute rain rates suffer substantial errors, especially at low rain rates. When one minute rain rates are averaged to 4-7 minute or longer time scales, the errors dramatically reduce. The rain event duration is very sensitive to the event definition but the event rain total is rather insensitive, provided that the events with less than 1 millimeter rain totals are excluded. Estimated lower rain rates are sensitive to the event definition whereas the higher rates are not. The median relative absolute errors are about 22% and 32% for 1-minute TB rain rates higher and lower than 3 mm per hour, respectively. These errors decrease to 5% and 14% when TB rain rates are used at 7-minute scale. The radar reflectivity-rainrate (Ze-R) distributions drawn from large amount of 7-minute TB rain rates and radar reflectivity data are mostly insensitive to the event definition.

Southern Ocean Deep-Convection as a Driver of Centennial-to-Millennial-Scale Climate Variability at Southern High Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedro, J. B.; Martin, T.; Steig, E. J.; Jochum, M.; Park, W.; Rasmussen, S.

2015-12-01

Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) are centennial-to-millennial scale warming events observed in Antarctic ice core records from the last glacial period and deglaciation. Mounting evidence links AIM events to parallel variations in atmospheric CO2, Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperatures and Antarctic Bottom Water production. According to the prevailing view, AIM events are forced from the North Atlantic by melt-water discharge from ice sheets suppressing the production of North Atlantic Deep Water and associated northward heat transport in the Atlantic. However observations and model studies increasingly suggest that melt-water fluxes have the wrong timing to be invoked as such a trigger. Here, drawing on results form the Kiel Climate Model, we present an alternative hypothesis in which AIM events are forced via internal oscillations in SO deep-convection. The quasi-periodic timescale of deep-convection events is set by heat (buoyancy) accumulation at SO intermediate depths and stochastic variability in sea ice conditions and freshening at the surface. Massive heat release from the SO convective zone drives Antarctic and large-scale southern hemisphere warming via a two-stage process involving changes in the location of Southern Ocean fronts, in the strength and intensity of the Westerlies and in meridional ocean and atmospheric heat flux anomalies. The potential for AIM events to be driven by internal Southern Ocean processes and the identification of time-lags internal to the southern high latitudes challenges conventional views on the North Atlantic as the pacemaker of millennial-scale climate variability.

ENCAPSULATING WASTE DISPOSAL METHODS - PHASE I

EPA Science Inventory

Detecting Trends in Tropical Rainfall Characteristics, 1979-2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2006-01-01

From analyses of blended space-based and ground-based global rainfall data, we found increasing trends in the occurrence of extreme heavy and light rain events, coupled to a decreasing trend in moderate rain events in the tropics during 1979-2003. The trends are consistent with a shift in the large-scale circulation associated with a) a relatively uniform increase in warm rain over the tropical oceans, b) enhanced ice-phase rain over the near-equatorial oceans, and c) reduced mixed-phase rain over the tropical ocean and land regions. Due to the large compensation among different rain categories, the total tropical rainfall trend remained undetectable.

Flare vs. Shock Acceleration of High-energy Protons in Solar Energetic Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliver, E. W.

2016-12-01

Recent studies have presented evidence for a significant to dominant role for a flare-resident acceleration process for high-energy protons in large (“gradual”) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, contrary to the more generally held view that such protons are primarily accelerated at shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The new support for this flare-centric view is provided by correlations between the sizes of X-ray and/or microwave bursts and associated SEP events. For one such study that considered >100 MeV proton events, we present evidence based on CME speeds and widths, shock associations, and electron-to-proton ratios that indicates that events omitted from that investigation’s analysis should have been included. Inclusion of these outlying events reverses the study’s qualitative result and supports shock acceleration of >100 MeV protons. Examination of the ratios of 0.5 MeV electron intensities to >100 MeV proton intensities for the Grechnev et al. event sample provides additional support for shock acceleration of high-energy protons. Simply scaling up a classic “impulsive” SEP event to produce a large >100 MeV proton event implies the existence of prompt 0.5 MeV electron events that are approximately two orders of magnitude larger than are observed. While classic “impulsive” SEP events attributed to flares have high electron-to-proton ratios (≳5 × 105) due to a near absence of >100 MeV protons, large poorly connected (≥W120) gradual SEP events, attributed to widespread shock acceleration, have electron-to-proton ratios of ˜2 × 103, similar to those of comparably sized well-connected (W20-W90) SEP events.

Identifying Adverse Events Using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision Y Codes in Korea: A Cross-sectional Study.

PubMed

Ock, Minsu; Kim, Hwa Jung; Jeon, Bomin; Kim, Ye-Jee; Ryu, Hyun Mi; Lee, Moo-Song

2018-01-01

The use of administrative data is an affordable alternative to conducting a difficult large-scale medical-record review to estimate the scale of adverse events. We identified adverse events from 2002 to 2013 on the national level in Korea, using International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision (ICD-10) Y codes. We used data from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC). We relied on medical treatment databases to extract information on ICD-10 Y codes from each participant in the NHIS-NSC. We classified adverse events in the ICD-10 Y codes into 6 types: those related to drugs, transfusions, and fluids; those related to vaccines and immunoglobulin; those related to surgery and procedures; those related to infections; those related to devices; and others. Over 12 years, a total of 20 817 adverse events were identified using ICD-10 Y codes, and the estimated total adverse event rate was 0.20%. Between 2002 and 2013, the total number of such events increased by 131.3%, from 1366 in 2002 to 3159 in 2013. The total rate increased by 103.9%, from 0.17% in 2002 to 0.35% in 2013. Events related to drugs, transfusions, and fluids were the most common (19 446, 93.4%), followed by those related to surgery and procedures (1209, 5.8%) and those related to vaccines and immunoglobulin (72, 0.3%). Based on a comparison with the results of other studies, the total adverse event rate in this study was significantly underestimated. Improving coding practices for ICD-10 Y codes is necessary to precisely monitor the scale of adverse events in Korea.

The observation of possible reconnection events in the boundary changes of solar coronal holes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahler, S. W.; Moses, J. Daniel

1989-01-01

Coronal holes are large scale regions of magnetically open fields which are easily observed in solar soft X-ray images. The boundaries of coronal holes are separatrices between large scale regions of open and closed magnetic fields where one might expect to observe evidence of solar magnetic reconnection. Previous studies by Nolte and colleagues using Skylab X-ray images established that large scale (greater than or equal to 9 x 10(4) km) changes in coronal hole boundaries were due to coronal processes, i.e., magnetic reconnection, rather than to photospheric motions. Those studies were limited to time scales of about one day, and no conclusion could be drawn about the size and time scales of the reconnection process at hole boundaries. Sequences of appropriate Skylab X-ray images were used with a time resolution of about 90 min during times of the central meridian passages of the coronal hole labelled Coronal Hole 1 to search for hole boundary changes which can yield the spatial and temporal scales of coronal magnetic reconnection. It was found that 29 of 32 observed boundary changes could be associated with bright points. The appearance of the bright point may be the signature of reconnection between small scale and large scale magnetic fields. The observed boundary changes contributed to the quasi-rigid rotation of Coronal Hole 1.

Wilber 3: A Python-Django Web Application For Acquiring Large-scale Event-oriented Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, R. L.; Clark, A.; Trabant, C. M.; Karstens, R.; Hutko, A. R.; Casey, R. E.; Ahern, T. K.

2013-12-01

Since 2001, the IRIS Data Management Center (DMC) WILBER II system has provided a convenient web-based interface for locating seismic data related to a particular event, and requesting a subset of that data for download. Since its launch, both the scale of available data and the technology of web-based applications have developed significantly. Wilber 3 is a ground-up redesign that leverages a number of public and open-source projects to provide an event-oriented data request interface with a high level of interactivity and scalability for multiple data types. Wilber 3 uses the IRIS/Federation of Digital Seismic Networks (FDSN) web services for event data, metadata, and time-series data. Combining a carefully optimized Google Map with the highly scalable SlickGrid data API, the Wilber 3 client-side interface can load tens of thousands of events or networks/stations in a single request, and provide instantly responsive browsing, sorting, and filtering of event and meta data in the web browser, without further reliance on the data service. The server-side of Wilber 3 is a Python-Django application, one of over a dozen developed in the last year at IRIS, whose common framework, components, and administrative overhead represent a massive savings in developer resources. Requests for assembled datasets, which may include thousands of data channels and gigabytes of data, are queued and executed using the Celery distributed Python task scheduler, giving Wilber 3 the ability to operate in parallel across a large number of nodes.

On simulating large earthquakes by Green's-function addition of smaller earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joyner, William B.; Boore, David M.

Simulation of ground motion from large earthquakes has been attempted by a number of authors using small earthquakes (subevents) as Green's functions and summing them, generally in a random way. We present a simple model for the random summation of subevents to illustrate how seismic scaling relations can be used to constrain methods of summation. In the model η identical subevents are added together with their start times randomly distributed over the source duration T and their waveforms scaled by a factor κ. The subevents can be considered to be distributed on a fault with later start times at progressively greater distances from the focus, simulating the irregular propagation of a coherent rupture front. For simplicity the distance between source and observer is assumed large compared to the source dimensions of the simulated event. By proper choice of η and κ the spectrum of the simulated event deduced from these assumptions can be made to conform at both low- and high-frequency limits to any arbitrary seismic scaling law. For the ω -squared model with similarity (that is, with constant Moƒ3o scaling, where ƒo is the corner frequency), the required values are η = (Mo/Moe)4/3 and κ = (Mo/Moe)-1/3, where Mo is moment of the simulated event and Moe is the moment of the subevent. The spectra resulting from other choices of η and κ, will not conform at both high and low frequency. If η is determined by the ratio of the rupture area of the simulated event to that of the subevent and κ = 1, the simulated spectrum will conform at high frequency to the ω-squared model with similarity, but not at low frequency. Because the high-frequency part of the spectrum is generally the important part for engineering applications, however, this choice of values for η and κ may be satisfactory in many cases. If η is determined by the ratio of the moment of the simulated event to that of the subevent and κ = 1, the simulated spectrum will conform at low frequency to the ω-squared model with similarity, but not at high frequency. Interestingly, the high-frequency scaling implied by this latter choice of η and κ corresponds to an ω-squared model with constant Moƒ4o—a scaling law proposed by Nuttli, although questioned recently by Haar and others. Simple scaling with κ equal to unity and η equal to the moment ratio would work if the high-frequency spectral decay were ω-1.5 instead of ω-2. Just the required decay is exhibited by the stochastic source model recently proposed by Joynet, if the dislocation-time function is deconvolved out of the spectrum. Simulated motions derived from such source models could be used as subevents rather than recorded motions as is usually done. This strategy is a promising approach to simulation of ground motion from an extended rupture.

Rain-on-snow Events in Southwestern British Columbia: A Long-term Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and Snowpack Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trubilowicz, J. W.; Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Snowpack dynamics and runoff generation in coastal mountain regions are complicated by rain-on-snow (ROS) events. During major ROS events associated with warm, moist air and strong winds, turbulent heat fluxes can produce substantial melt to supplement rainfall, but previous studies suggest this may not be true for smaller, more frequent events. The internal temperature and water content of the snowpack are also expected to influence runoff generation during ROS events: a cold snowpack with no liquid water content will have the ability to store significant amounts of rainfall, whereas a 'ripe' snowpack may begin to melt and generate outflow with little rain input. However, it is not well understood how antecedent snowpack conditions and energy fluxes differ between ROS events that cause large runoff events and those that do not, in large part because major flood-producing ROS events occur infrequently, and thus are often not sampled during short-term research projects. To generate greater understanding of runoff generation over the spectrum of ROS magnitudes and frequencies, we analyzed data from Automated Snow Pillow (ASP) sites, which record hourly air temperature, precipitation and snowpack water equivalent and offer up to several decades of data at each site. We supplemented the ASP data with output from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) product to support point scale snow modeling for 335 ROS event records from six ASP sites in southwestern BC from 2003 to 2013. Our analysis reconstructed the weather conditions, surface energy exchanges, internal mass and energy states of the snowpack, and generation of snow melt and water available for runoff (WAR) for each ROS event. Results indicate that WAR generation during large events is largely independent of the snowpack conditions, but for smaller events, the antecedent snow conditions play a significant role in either damping or enhancing WAR generation.

Association of Perceived Stress with Stressful Life Events, Lifestyle and Sociodemographic Factors: A Large-Scale Community-Based Study Using Logistic Quantile Regression

PubMed Central

Feizi, Awat; Aliyari, Roqayeh; Roohafza, Hamidreza

2012-01-01

Objective. The present paper aimed at investigating the association between perceived stress and major life events stressors in Iranian general population. Methods. In a cross-sectional large-scale community-based study, 4583 people aged 19 and older, living in Isfahan, Iran, were investigated. Logistic quantile regression was used for modeling perceived stress, measured by GHQ questionnaire, as the bounded outcome (dependent), variable, and as a function of most important stressful life events, as the predictor variables, controlling for major lifestyle and sociodemographic factors. This model provides empirical evidence of the predictors' effects heterogeneity depending on individual location on the distribution of perceived stress. Results. The results showed that among four stressful life events, family conflicts and social problems were more correlated with level of perceived stress. Higher levels of education were negatively associated with perceived stress and its coefficients monotonically decrease beyond the 30th percentile. Also, higher levels of physical activity were associated with perception of low levels of stress. The pattern of gender's coefficient over the majority of quantiles implied that females are more affected by stressors. Also high perceived stress was associated with low or middle levels of income. Conclusions. The results of current research suggested that in a developing society with high prevalence of stress, interventions targeted toward promoting financial and social equalities, social skills training, and healthy lifestyle may have the potential benefits for large parts of the population, most notably female and lower educated people. PMID:23091560

Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C.-H.; Chen, C.-A.; Hsu, H.-H.; Hirschi, J.; Forryan, A.; Sinha, B.; New, A. L.; Graham, T.; Andrews, M. B.; Tu, C.-Y.; Lin, S.-J.

2017-02-01

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses. Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

Subtropical Low Cloud Responses to Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapp, A. D.; Bennartz, R.; Jiang, J. H.; Kato, S.; Olson, W. S.; Pinker, R. T.; Su, H.; Taylor, P. C.

2014-12-01

The eastern Pacific El Niño event in 2006-2007 and the central Pacific El Niño event during 2009-2010 exhibit opposite responses in the top of atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects. These responses are driven by differences in large-scale circulation that result in significant low cloud anomalies in the subtropical southeastern Pacific. Both the vertical profile of cloud fraction and cloud water content are reduced during the eastern Pacific El Niño; however, the shift in the distribution of cloud characteristics and the physical processes underlying these changes need further analysis. The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Clouds and Radiation Working Group will use a synthesis of NEWS data products, A-Train satellite measurements, reanalysis, and modeling approaches to further explore the differences in the low cloud response to changes in the large-scale forcing, as well as try to understand the physical mechanism driving the observed changes in the low clouds for the 2006/07 and 2009/10 distinct El Niño events. The distributions of cloud macrophysical, microphysical, and radiative properties over the southeast Pacific will first be compared for these two events using a combination of MODIS, CloudSat/CALIPSO, and CERES data. Satellite and reanalysis estimates of changes in the vertical temperature and moisture profiles, lower tropospheric stability, winds, and surface heat fluxes are then used to identify the drivers for observed differences in the clouds and TOA radiative effects.

Origin and dynamics of depositionary subduction margins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vannucchi, Paola; Morgan, Jason P.; Silver, Eli; Kluesner, Jared W.

2016-01-01

Here we propose a new framework for forearc evolution that focuses on the potential feedbacks between subduction tectonics, sedimentation, and geomorphology that take place during an extreme event of subduction erosion. These feedbacks can lead to the creation of a “depositionary forearc,” a forearc structure that extends the traditional division of forearcs into accretionary or erosive subduction margins by demonstrating a mode of rapid basin accretion during an erosive event at a subduction margin. A depositionary mode of forearc evolution occurs when terrigenous sediments are deposited directly on the forearc while it is being removed from below by subduction erosion. In the most extreme case, an entire forearc can be removed by a single subduction erosion event followed by depositionary replacement without involving transfer of sediments from the incoming plate. We need to further recognize that subduction forearcs are often shaped by interactions between slow, long-term processes, and sudden extreme events reflecting the sudden influences of large-scale morphological variations in the incoming plate. Both types of processes contribute to the large-scale architecture of the forearc, with extreme events associated with a replacive depositionary mode that rapidly creates sections of a typical forearc margin. The persistent upward diversion of the megathrust is likely to affect its geometry, frictional nature, and hydrogeology. Therefore, the stresses along the fault and individual earthquake rupture characteristics are also expected to be more variable in these erosive systems than in systems with long-lived megathrust surfaces.

Mass killings and detection of impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mclaren, Digby J.

1988-01-01

Highly energetic bolide impacts occur and their flux is known. For larger bodies the energy release is greater than for any other short-term global phenomenon. Such impacts produce or release a large variety of shock induced changes including major atmospheric, sedimentologic, seismic and volcanic events. These events must necessarily leave a variety of records in the stratigraphic column, including mass killings resulting in major changes in population density and reduction or extinction of many taxonomic groups, followed by characteristic patterns of faunal and flora replacement. Of these effects, mass killings, marked by large-scale loss of biomass, are the most easily detected evidence in the field but must be manifest on a near-global scale. Such mass killings that appear to be approximately synchronous and involve disappearance of biomass at a bedding plane in many sedimentologically independent sections globally suggest a common cause and probable synchroneity. Mass killings identify an horizon which may be examined for evidence of cause. Geochemical markers may be ephemeral and absence may not be significant. There appears to be no reason why ongoing phenomena such as climate and sea-level changes are primary causes of anomolous episodic events.

Mass killings and detection of impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaren, Digby J.

Highly energetic bolide impacts occur and their flux is known. For larger bodies the energy release is greater than for any other short-term global phenomenon. Such impacts produce or release a large variety of shock induced changes including major atmospheric, sedimentologic, seismic and volcanic events. These events must necessarily leave a variety of records in the stratigraphic column, including mass killings resulting in major changes in population density and reduction or extinction of many taxonomic groups, followed by characteristic patterns of faunal and flora replacement. Of these effects, mass killings, marked by large-scale loss of biomass, are the most easily detected evidence in the field but must be manifest on a near-global scale. Such mass killings that appear to be approximately synchronous and involve disappearance of biomass at a bedding plane in many sedimentologically independent sections globally suggest a common cause and probable synchroneity. Mass killings identify an horizon which may be examined for evidence of cause. Geochemical markers may be ephemeral and absence may not be significant. There appears to be no reason why ongoing phenomena such as climate and sea-level changes are primary causes of anomolous episodic events.

On Event-Triggered Adaptive Architectures for Decentralized and Distributed Control of Large-Scale Modular Systems

PubMed Central

Albattat, Ali; Gruenwald, Benjamin C.; Yucelen, Tansel

2016-01-01

The last decade has witnessed an increased interest in physical systems controlled over wireless networks (networked control systems). These systems allow the computation of control signals via processors that are not attached to the physical systems, and the feedback loops are closed over wireless networks. The contribution of this paper is to design and analyze event-triggered decentralized and distributed adaptive control architectures for uncertain networked large-scale modular systems; that is, systems consist of physically-interconnected modules controlled over wireless networks. Specifically, the proposed adaptive architectures guarantee overall system stability while reducing wireless network utilization and achieving a given system performance in the presence of system uncertainties that can result from modeling and degraded modes of operation of the modules and their interconnections between each other. In addition to the theoretical findings including rigorous system stability and the boundedness analysis of the closed-loop dynamical system, as well as the characterization of the effect of user-defined event-triggering thresholds and the design parameters of the proposed adaptive architectures on the overall system performance, an illustrative numerical example is further provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed decentralized and distributed control approaches. PMID:27537894

On Event-Triggered Adaptive Architectures for Decentralized and Distributed Control of Large-Scale Modular Systems.

PubMed

Albattat, Ali; Gruenwald, Benjamin C; Yucelen, Tansel

2016-08-16

The last decade has witnessed an increased interest in physical systems controlled over wireless networks (networked control systems). These systems allow the computation of control signals via processors that are not attached to the physical systems, and the feedback loops are closed over wireless networks. The contribution of this paper is to design and analyze event-triggered decentralized and distributed adaptive control architectures for uncertain networked large-scale modular systems; that is, systems consist of physically-interconnected modules controlled over wireless networks. Specifically, the proposed adaptive architectures guarantee overall system stability while reducing wireless network utilization and achieving a given system performance in the presence of system uncertainties that can result from modeling and degraded modes of operation of the modules and their interconnections between each other. In addition to the theoretical findings including rigorous system stability and the boundedness analysis of the closed-loop dynamical system, as well as the characterization of the effect of user-defined event-triggering thresholds and the design parameters of the proposed adaptive architectures on the overall system performance, an illustrative numerical example is further provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed decentralized and distributed control approaches.

Short time-scale optical pulsations in the night sky background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bertsch, D. L.; Fisher, A.; Ogelman, H.

1971-01-01

A network of monitoring stations designed to detect large scale fluorescence emission in the atmosphere has been in operation for over two years. The motivation for the search arises from the prediction that an energetic photon burst would be produced in a supernova and this burst, when absorbed in the atmosphere, would produce fluorescence. This paper reports on observations up to February 1971. No supernova-like events have been found, although 4.4 were expected. One class of non-fluorescence events is described that evidence suggests is related to electrical discharge in the atmosphere. Another type of non-fluorescence pulse appears to be related to particle precipitation in the atmosphere.

Trends in size of tropical deforestation events signal increasing dominance of industrial-scale drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, Kemen G.; González-Roglich, Mariano; Schaffer-Smith, Danica; Schwantes, Amanda M.; Swenson, Jennifer J.

2017-05-01

Deforestation continues across the tropics at alarming rates, with repercussions for ecosystem processes, carbon storage and long term sustainability. Taking advantage of recent fine-scale measurement of deforestation, this analysis aims to improve our understanding of the scale of deforestation drivers in the tropics. We examined trends in forest clearings of different sizes from 2000-2012 by country, region and development level. As tropical deforestation increased from approximately 6900 kha yr-1 in the first half of the study period, to >7900 kha yr-1 in the second half of the study period, >50% of this increase was attributable to the proliferation of medium and large clearings (>10 ha). This trend was most pronounced in Southeast Asia and in South America. Outside of Brazil >60% of the observed increase in deforestation in South America was due to an upsurge in medium- and large-scale clearings; Brazil had a divergent trend of decreasing deforestation, >90% of which was attributable to a reduction in medium and large clearings. The emerging prominence of large-scale drivers of forest loss in many regions and countries suggests the growing need for policy interventions which target industrial-scale agricultural commodity producers. The experience in Brazil suggests that there are promising policy solutions to mitigate large-scale deforestation, but that these policy initiatives do not adequately address small-scale drivers. By providing up-to-date and spatially explicit information on the scale of deforestation, and the trends in these patterns over time, this study contributes valuable information for monitoring, and designing effective interventions to address deforestation.

Catalina Eddy as revealed by the historical downscaling of reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanamitsu, Masao; Yulaeva, Elena; Li, Haiqin; Hong, Song-You

2013-08-01

Climatological properties, dynamical and thermodynamical characteristics of the Catalina Eddy are examined from the 61 years NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis downscaled to hourly 10 km resolution. The eddy is identified as a mesoscale cyclonic circulation confined to the Southern California Bight. Pattern correlation of wind direction against the canonical Catalina Eddy is used to extract cases from the downscaled analysis. Validation against published cases and various observations confirmed that the downscaled analysis accurately reproduces Catalina Eddy events. A composite analysis of the initiation phase of the eddy indicates that no apparent large-scale cyclonic/anti-cyclonic large-scale forcing is associated with the eddy formation or decay. The source of the vorticity is located at the coast of the Santa Barbara Channel. It is generated by the convergence of the wind system crossing over the San Rafael Mountains and the large-scale northwesterly flow associated with the subtropical high. This vorticity is advected towards the southeast by the northwesterly flow, which contributes to the formation of the streak of positive vorticity. At 6 hours prior to the mature stage, there is an explosive generation of positive vorticity along the coast, coincident with the phase change of the sea breeze circulation (wind turning from onshore to offshore), resulting in the convergence all along the California coast. The generation of vorticity due to convergence along the coast together with the advection of vorticity from the north resulted in the formation of southerly flow along the coast, forming the Catalina Eddy. The importance of diurnal variation and the lack of large-scale forcing are new findings, which are in sharp contrast to prior studies. These differences are due to the inclusion of many short-lived eddy events detected in our study which have not been included in other studies.

Mechanisms of diurnal precipitation over the US Great Plains: a cloud resolving model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Myong-In; Choi, Ildae; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kang, In-Sik

2010-02-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, M.-I.; Choi, I.; Tao, W.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kang, I.-K.

2010-01-01

The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF BIODOSIMETRY METHODS FOR LARGE-SCALE INCIDENTS

PubMed Central

Swartz, Harold M.; Flood, Ann Barry; Gougelet, Robert M.; Rea, Michael E.; Nicolalde, Roberto J.; Williams, Benjamin B.

2014-01-01

Recognition is growing regarding the possibility that terrorism or large-scale accidents could result in potential radiation exposure of hundreds of thousands of people and that the present guidelines for evaluation after such an event are seriously deficient. Therefore, there is a great and urgent need for after-the-fact biodosimetric methods to estimate radiation dose. To accomplish this goal, the dose estimates must be at the individual level, timely, accurate, and plausibly obtained in large-scale disasters. This paper evaluates current biodosimetry methods, focusing on their strengths and weaknesses in estimating human radiation exposure in large-scale disasters at three stages. First, the authors evaluate biodosimetry’s ability to determine which individuals did not receive a significant exposure so they can be removed from the acute response system. Second, biodosimetry’s capacity to classify those initially assessed as needing further evaluation into treatment-level categories is assessed. Third, we review biodosimetry’s ability to guide treatment, both short- and long-term, is reviewed. The authors compare biodosimetric methods that are based on physical vs. biological parameters and evaluate the features of current dosimeters (capacity, speed and ease of getting information, and accuracy) to determine which are most useful in meeting patients’ needs at each of the different stages. Results indicate that the biodosimetry methods differ in their applicability to the three different stages, and that combining physical and biological techniques may sometimes be most effective. In conclusion, biodosimetry techniques have different properties, and knowledge of their properties for meeting the different needs for different stages will result in their most effective use in a nuclear disaster mass-casualty event. PMID:20065671

FLARE VERSUS SHOCK ACCELERATION OF HIGH-ENERGY PROTONS IN SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cliver, E. W.

2016-12-01

Recent studies have presented evidence for a significant to dominant role for a flare-resident acceleration process for high-energy protons in large (“gradual”) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, contrary to the more generally held view that such protons are primarily accelerated at shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The new support for this flare-centric view is provided by correlations between the sizes of X-ray and/or microwave bursts and associated SEP events. For one such study that considered >100 MeV proton events, we present evidence based on CME speeds and widths, shock associations, and electron-to-proton ratios that indicates that eventsmore » omitted from that investigation’s analysis should have been included. Inclusion of these outlying events reverses the study’s qualitative result and supports shock acceleration of >100 MeV protons. Examination of the ratios of 0.5 MeV electron intensities to >100 MeV proton intensities for the Grechnev et al. event sample provides additional support for shock acceleration of high-energy protons. Simply scaling up a classic “impulsive” SEP event to produce a large >100 MeV proton event implies the existence of prompt 0.5 MeV electron events that are approximately two orders of magnitude larger than are observed. While classic “impulsive” SEP events attributed to flares have high electron-to-proton ratios (≳5 × 10{sup 5}) due to a near absence of >100 MeV protons, large poorly connected (≥W120) gradual SEP events, attributed to widespread shock acceleration, have electron-to-proton ratios of ∼2 × 10{sup 3}, similar to those of comparably sized well-connected (W20–W90) SEP events.« less

A PRACTICAL ONTOLOGY FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MODELING OF SCHOLARLY ARTIFACTS AND THEIR USAGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

RODRIGUEZ, MARKO A.; BOLLEN, JOHAN; VAN DE SOMPEL, HERBERT

2007-01-30

The large-scale analysis of scholarly artifact usage is constrained primarily by current practices in usage data archiving, privacy issues concerned with the dissemination of usage data, and the lack of a practical ontology for modeling the usage domain. As a remedy to the third constraint, this article presents a scholarly ontology that was engineered to represent those classes for which large-scale bibliographic and usage data exists, supports usage research, and whose instantiation is scalable to the order of 50 million articles along with their associated artifacts (e.g. authors and journals) and an accompanying 1 billion usage events. The real worldmore » instantiation of the presented abstract ontology is a semantic network model of the scholarly community which lends the scholarly process to statistical analysis and computational support. They present the ontology, discuss its instantiation, and provide some example inference rules for calculating various scholarly artifact metrics.« less

Nuclear Power - Post Fukushima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, Jose, Jr.

2011-10-01

The extreme events that led to the prolonged power outage at the Fukushima Daiicchi nuclear plant have highlighted the importance of assuring a means for stable long term cooling of the nuclear fuel and containment following a complete station blackout. Legislative bodies, regulatory agencies and industry are drawing lessons from those events and considering what changes, if any, are needed to nuclear power, post Fukushima. The enhanced safety of a new class of reactor designed by NuScale Power is drawing significant attention in light of the Fukushima events. During normal operation, each NuScale containment is fully immersed in a water-filled stainless steel lined concrete pool that resides underground. The pool, housed in a Seismic Category I building, is large enough to provided 30 days of core and containment cooling without adding water. After 30 days, the decay heat generations coupled with thermal radiation heat transfer is completely adequate to remove core decay heat for an unlimited period of time. These passive power systems can perform their function without requiring an external supply of water of power. An assessment of the NuScale passive systems is being performed through a comprehensive test program that includes the NuScale integral system test facility at Oregon State University

The Plant Phenology Ontology: A New Informatics Resource for Large-Scale Integration of Plant Phenology Data.

PubMed

Stucky, Brian J; Guralnick, Rob; Deck, John; Denny, Ellen G; Bolmgren, Kjell; Walls, Ramona

2018-01-01

Plant phenology - the timing of plant life-cycle events, such as flowering or leafing out - plays a fundamental role in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, including human agricultural systems. Because plant phenology is often linked with climatic variables, there is widespread interest in developing a deeper understanding of global plant phenology patterns and trends. Although phenology data from around the world are currently available, truly global analyses of plant phenology have so far been difficult because the organizations producing large-scale phenology data are using non-standardized terminologies and metrics during data collection and data processing. To address this problem, we have developed the Plant Phenology Ontology (PPO). The PPO provides the standardized vocabulary and semantic framework that is needed for large-scale integration of heterogeneous plant phenology data. Here, we describe the PPO, and we also report preliminary results of using the PPO and a new data processing pipeline to build a large dataset of phenology information from North America and Europe.

Measuring Cosmic Expansion and Large Scale Structure with Destiny

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benford, Dominic J.; Lauer, Tod R.

2007-01-01

Destiny is a simple, direct, low cost mission to determine the properties of dark energy by obtaining a cosmologically deep supernova (SN) type Ia Hubble diagram and by measuring the large-scale mass power spectrum over time. Its science instrument is a 1.65m space telescope, featuring a near-infrared survey camera/spectrometer with a large field of view. During its first two years, Destiny will detect, observe, and characterize 23000 SN Ia events over the redshift interval 0.4lo00 square degrees to measure the large-scale mass power spectrum. The combination of surveys is much more powerful than either technique on its own, and will have over an order of magnitude greater sensitivity than will be provided by ongoing ground-based projects.

Using Wavelet Analysis To Assist in Identification of Significant Events in Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Heidari, Zahra; Roe, Daniel R; Galindo-Murillo, Rodrigo; Ghasemi, Jahan B; Cheatham, Thomas E

2016-07-25

Long time scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of biological systems are becoming increasingly commonplace due to the availability of both large-scale computational resources and significant advances in the underlying simulation methodologies. Therefore, it is useful to investigate and develop data mining and analysis techniques to quickly and efficiently extract the biologically relevant information from the incredible amount of generated data. Wavelet analysis (WA) is a technique that can quickly reveal significant motions during an MD simulation. Here, the application of WA on well-converged long time scale (tens of μs) simulations of a DNA helix is described. We show how WA combined with a simple clustering method can be used to identify both the physical and temporal locations of events with significant motion in MD trajectories. We also show that WA can not only distinguish and quantify the locations and time scales of significant motions, but by changing the maximum time scale of WA a more complete characterization of these motions can be obtained. This allows motions of different time scales to be identified or ignored as desired.

The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James

2018-01-01

The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on Fire Outbreaks in the Amazon Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pires, L. B. M.; Romao, M.; Freitas, A. C. V.

2017-12-01

The combination of alterations in land use cover and severe droughts may dramatically increase fire outbreaks. Tropical convection in the Amazon Basin is regulated mainly by large-scale atmospheric systems such as the Walker circulation. Many of the documented drought episodes in the Amazon occurred during intense El Niño events such as those recorded in 1926, 1983, 1997-1998, and 2010. However, not all El Niño events are related to drought in the Amazon. Recent studies have also pointed out the importance of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the modulation of the Amazonian climate, as observed during the drought episodes in 2005 and 2010. This work investigates the fire outbreak tendency in the Amazon region, and the influence of large-scale circulation on these events. Data from the Fire Program of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE) show a substantial increase in the number of fire outbreaks in the last few years, especially during 2016. However, in the 2017 year a sharp drop in fire outbreaks reaching levels similar to the years prior to 2016 is being noted, already showing a reduction of 54% in relation to the preceding 2016 year. The 2015-2016 period was marked by one of the strongest El Niño in history. This was reflected in the increase of the number of fire outbreaks due to the increase of the drought and temperature elevation period. On the other hand, the 2017 year is being characterized by a condition of neutrality in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, and have overall presented positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Variations of these systems and their relation to fire outbreaks is demonstrated.

Creating a gold medal Olympic and Paralympics health care team: a satisfaction survey of the mobile medical unit/polyclinic team training for the Vancouver 2010 winter games

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The mobile medical unit/polyclinic (MMU/PC) was an essential part of the medical services to support ill or injured Olympic or Paralympics family during the 2010 Olympic and Paralympics winter games. The objective of this study was to survey the satisfaction of the clinical staff that completed the training programs prior to deployment to the MMU. Methods Medical personnel who participated in at least one of the four training programs, including (1) week-end sessions; (2) web-based modules; (3) just-in-time training; and (4) daily simulation exercises were invited to participate in a web-based survey and comment on their level of satisfaction with training program. Results A total of 64 (out of 94 who were invited) physicians, nurses and respiratory therapists completed the survey. All participants reported favorably that the MMU/PC training positively impacted their knowledge, skills and team functions while deployed at the MMU/PC during the 2010 Olympic Games. However, components of the training program were valued differently depending on clinical job title, years of experience, and prior experience in large scale events. Respondents with little or no experience working in large scale events (45%) rated daily simulations as the most valuable component of the training program for strengthening competencies and knowledge in clinical skills for working in large scale events. Conclusion The multi-phase MMU/PC training was found to be beneficial for preparing the medical team for the 2010 Winter Games. In particular this survey demonstrates the effectiveness of simulation training programs on teamwork competencies in ad hoc groups. PMID:24225074

Two Rounds of Whole Genome Duplication in the Ancestral Vertebrate

PubMed Central

Dehal, Paramvir; Boore, Jeffrey L

2005-01-01

The hypothesis that the relatively large and complex vertebrate genome was created by two ancient, whole genome duplications has been hotly debated, but remains unresolved. We reconstructed the evolutionary relationships of all gene families from the complete gene sets of a tunicate, fish, mouse, and human, and then determined when each gene duplicated relative to the evolutionary tree of the organisms. We confirmed the results of earlier studies that there remains little signal of these events in numbers of duplicated genes, gene tree topology, or the number of genes per multigene family. However, when we plotted the genomic map positions of only the subset of paralogous genes that were duplicated prior to the fish–tetrapod split, their global physical organization provides unmistakable evidence of two distinct genome duplication events early in vertebrate evolution indicated by clear patterns of four-way paralogous regions covering a large part of the human genome. Our results highlight the potential for these large-scale genomic events to have driven the evolutionary success of the vertebrate lineage. PMID:16128622

Classifying hydrological events to quantify their impact on nitrate leaching across three spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauwe, Andreas; Tiemeyer, Bärbel; Kahle, Petra; Lennartz, Bernd

2015-12-01

Nitrate is one of the most important sources of pollution for surface waters in tile-drained agricultural areas. In order to develop appropriate management strategies to reduce nitrate losses, it is crucial to first understand the underlying hydrological processes. In this study, we used Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) to analyze 212 discharge events between 2004 and 2011 across three spatial scales (68 events at the collector drain, 72 at the ditch, and 72 at the brook) to identify the controlling factors for hydrograph response characteristics and their influence on nitrate concentration patterns. Our results showed that the 212 hydrological events can be classified into six different types: summer events (28%), snow-dominated events (10%), events controlled by rainfall duration (16%), rainfall totals (8%), dry antecedent conditions (10%), and events controlled by wet antecedent conditions (14%). The relatively large number of unclassified events (15%) demonstrated the difficulty in separating event types due to mutually influencing variables. NO3-N concentrations showed a remarkably consistent pattern during the discharge events regardless of event type, with minima at the beginning, increasing concentrations at the rising limb, and maxima around peak discharge. However, the level of NO3-N concentrations varied notably among the event types. The highest average NO3-N concentrations were found for events controlled by rainfall totals (NO3-N = 17.1 mg/l), events controlled by wet antecedent conditions (NO3-N = 17.1 mg/l), and snowmelt (NO3-N = 15.2 mg/l). Average maximum NO3-N concentrations were significantly lower during summer events (NO3-N = 10.2 mg/l) and events controlled by dry antecedent conditions (NO3-N = 11.7 mg/l). The results have furthermore shown that similar hydrological and biogeochemical processes determine the hydrograph and NO3-N response on storm events at various spatial scales. The management of tile-drained agricultural land to reduce NO3-N losses should focus explicitly on flow events and, more specifically, active management should preferably be conducted in the winter season for discharge events after snowmelt, after heavy rain storms and when the soil moisture conditions are wet.

Concepts and Plans towards fast large scale Monte Carlo production for the ATLAS Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritsch, E.; Atlas Collaboration

2014-06-01

The huge success of the physics program of the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) during Run 1 relies upon a great number of simulated Monte Carlo events. This Monte Carlo production takes the biggest part of the computing resources being in use by ATLAS as of now. In this document we describe the plans to overcome the computing resource limitations for large scale Monte Carlo production in the ATLAS Experiment for Run 2, and beyond. A number of fast detector simulation, digitization and reconstruction techniques are being discussed, based upon a new flexible detector simulation framework. To optimally benefit from these developments, a redesigned ATLAS MC production chain is presented at the end of this document.

Constraining the rate of oceanic deoxygenation leading up to a Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE-2: ~94 Ma)

PubMed Central

Ostrander, Chadlin M.; Owens, Jeremy D.; Nielsen, Sune G.

2017-01-01

The rates of marine deoxygenation leading to Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Events are poorly recognized and constrained. If increases in primary productivity are the primary driver of these episodes, progressive oxygen loss from global waters should predate enhanced carbon burial in underlying sediments—the diagnostic Oceanic Anoxic Event relic. Thallium isotope analysis of organic-rich black shales from Demerara Rise across Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 reveals evidence of expanded sediment-water interface deoxygenation ~43 ± 11 thousand years before the globally recognized carbon cycle perturbation. This evidence for rapid oxygen loss leading to an extreme ancient climatic event has timely implications for the modern ocean, which is already experiencing large-scale deoxygenation. PMID:28808684

Infrasonic observations of large-scale HE events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitaker, Rodney W.; Mutschlecner, J. Paul; Davidson, Masha B.; Noel, Susan D.

1990-01-01

The Los Alamos Infrasound Program has been operating since about mid-1982, making routine measurements of low frequency atmospheric acoustic propagation. Generally, the authors work between 0.1 Hz to 10 Hz; however, much of the work is concerned with the narrower range of 0.5 to 5.0 Hz. Two permanent stations, St. George, UT, and Los Alamos, NM, have been operational since 1983, collecting data 24 hours a day. For the purposes of this discussion, the authors concentrate on their measurements of large, high explosive (HE) events at ranges of 250 km to 5330 km. Because their equipment is well suited for mobile deployments, they can easily establish temporary observing sites for special events. The measurements are from the permanent sites, as well as from various temporary sites. A few observations that are typical of the full data set are given.

Spider webs designed for rare but life-saving catches

PubMed Central

Venner, Samuel; Casas, Jérôme

2005-01-01

The impact of rare but positive events on the design of organisms has been largely ignored, probably due to the paucity of recordings of such events and to the difficulty of estimating their impact on lifetime reproductive success. In this respect, we investigated the size of spider webs in relation to rare but large prey catches. First, we collected field data on a short time-scale using the common orb-weaving spider Zygiella x-notata to determine the distribution of the size of prey caught and to quantify the relationship between web size and daily capture success. Second, we explored, with an energetic model, the consequences of an increase in web size on spider fitness. Our results showed that (i) the great majority of prey caught are quite small (body length less than 2 mm) while large prey (length greater than 10 mm) are rare, (ii) spiders cannot survive or produce eggs without catching these large but rare prey and (iii) increasing web size increases the daily number of prey caught and thus long-term survival and fecundity. Spider webs seem, therefore, designed for making the best of the rare but crucial event of catching large prey. PMID:16048774

Estimating floodwater depths from flood inundation maps and topography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Sagy; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kettner, Albert; Bates, Bradford; Nelson, Jonathan M.; McDonald, Richard R.; Huang, Yu-Fen; Munasinghe, Dinuke; Zhang, Jiaqi

2018-01-01

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS-based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large-scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small-scale event for which we use a high-resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.

Large-scale transcriptome sequencing and gene analyses in the crab-eating macaque (Macaca fascicularis) for biomedical research

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background As a human replacement, the crab-eating macaque (Macaca fascicularis) is an invaluable non-human primate model for biomedical research, but the lack of genetic information on this primate has represented a significant obstacle for its broader use. Results Here, we sequenced the transcriptome of 16 tissues originated from two individuals of crab-eating macaque (male and female), and identified genes to resolve the main obstacles for understanding the biological response of the crab-eating macaque. From 4 million reads with 1.4 billion base sequences, 31,786 isotigs containing genes similar to those of humans, 12,672 novel isotigs, and 348,160 singletons were identified using the GS FLX sequencing method. Approximately 86% of human genes were represented among the genes sequenced in this study. Additionally, 175 tissue-specific transcripts were identified, 81 of which were experimentally validated. In total, 4,314 alternative splicing (AS) events were identified and analyzed. Intriguingly, 10.4% of AS events were associated with transposable element (TE) insertions. Finally, investigation of TE exonization events and evolutionary analysis were conducted, revealing interesting phenomena of human-specific amplified trends in TE exonization events. Conclusions This report represents the first large-scale transcriptome sequencing and genetic analyses of M. fascicularis and could contribute to its utility for biomedical research and basic biology. PMID:22554259

Twitter web-service for soft agent reporting in persistent surveillance systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rababaah, Haroun; Shirkhodaie, Amir

2010-04-01

Persistent surveillance is an intricate process requiring monitoring, gathering, processing, tracking, and characterization of many spatiotemporal events occurring concurrently. Data associated with events can be readily attained by networking of hard (physical) sensors. Sensors may have homogeneous or heterogeneous (hybrid) sensing modalities with different communication bandwidth requirements. Complimentary to hard sensors are human observers or "soft sensors" that can report occurrences of evolving events via different communication devices (e.g., texting, cell phones, emails, instant messaging, etc.) to the command control center. However, networking of human observers in ad-hoc way is rather a difficult task. In this paper, we present a Twitter web-service for soft agent reporting in persistent surveillance systems (called Web-STARS). The objective of this web-service is to aggregate multi-source human observations in hybrid sensor networks rapidly. With availability of Twitter social network, such a human networking concept can not only be realized for large scale persistent surveillance systems (PSS), but also, it can be employed with proper interfaces to expedite rapid events reporting by human observers. The proposed technique is particularly suitable for large-scale persistent surveillance systems with distributed soft and hard sensor networks. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed technique is measured experimentally by conducting several simulated persistent surveillance scenarios. It is demonstrated that by fusion of information from hard and soft agents improves understanding of common operating picture and enhances situational awareness.

A 38,000-year record of floods and debris flows in the Ilo region of southern Peru and its relation to El Niño events and great earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.; DeFrance, Susan D.

2003-01-01

Previous work throughout the Ilo region of south coastal Peru has documented the existence of flood and debris-flow deposits produced by two El Niño events evidently much more severe than any in recent history. These two events have been dated to ca. AD 1300–1400 and AD 1607–08. The Late Pleistocene to Holocene record of older sedimentary deposits in this region is dominated by flood and debris-flow deposits of similar scale. These older deposits have been described and dated from three coastal, alluvial-fan sites. These deposits, which are as old as 38 200 years, are dominated by massive debris-flow deposits, several tens of cm thick, typically composed of cobble- and boulder-sized clasts in a matrix of silty sand, with characteristics indicating generation by heavy rainfall in an arid environment. Twenty-two radiocarbon dates and a single infrared-stimulated luminescence date show that particularly severe El Niño events occurred throughout the Late Pleistocene and two of three divisions of the Holocene with significantly different frequencies. The period of greatest activity was during the Early Holocene when at least six such events took place during a period of ca. 3600 years, beginning near the end of the Younger Dryas ca. 12 000 years ago. One of these events produced a debris flow that may have caused abandonment of the Paleo-Indian site at Quebrada Tacahuay, one of the oldest on the Andean coast. No severe events took place during the Middle Holocene between ca. 8400 and 5300 years ago, when a wide variety of other paleoclimate proxy records indicate that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation regime was particularly weak. Since ca. 5300 years ago, four of these severe events have taken place. The Late Pleistocene sequence is constrained by only two dates, which indicate that at least ten severe events took place between ca. 38 200 and 12 900 years ago. Mechanisms probably responsible for generating these large-scale deposits include: (1) ‘Mega-Niños’ that produced anomalously heavy rainfall along most or all of the central Andean coast; (2) El Niños that occurred shortly after great earthquakes that produced large amounts of sediment; or (3) El Niños that produced anomalously heavy local rainfall. The existence of these large-scale deposits in the Ilo region implies a level of hazard much higher than indicated by the historical record alone

Horizontal and vertical structure of reactive bromine events probed by bromine monoxide MAX-DOAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, William R.; Peterson, Peter K.; Frieß, Udo; Sihler, Holger; Lampel, Johannes; Platt, Ulrich; Moore, Chris; Pratt, Kerri; Shepson, Paul; Halfacre, John; Nghiem, Son V.

2017-08-01

Heterogeneous photochemistry converts bromide (Br-) to reactive bromine species (Br atoms and bromine monoxide, BrO) that dominate Arctic springtime chemistry. This phenomenon has many impacts such as boundary-layer ozone depletion, mercury oxidation and deposition, and modification of the fate of hydrocarbon species. To study environmental controls on reactive bromine events, the BRomine, Ozone, and Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX) was carried out from early March to mid-April 2012 near Barrow (Utqiaġvik), Alaska. We measured horizontal and vertical gradients in BrO with multiple-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instrumentation at three sites, two mobile and one fixed. During the campaign, a large crack in the sea ice (an open lead) formed pushing one instrument package ˜ 250 km downwind from Barrow (Utqiaġvik). Convection associated with the open lead converted the BrO vertical structure from a surface-based event to a lofted event downwind of the lead influence. The column abundance of BrO downwind of the re-freezing lead was comparable to upwind amounts, indicating direct reactions on frost flowers or open seawater was not a major reactive bromine source. When these three sites were separated by ˜ 30 km length scales of unbroken sea ice, the BrO amount and vertical distributions were highly correlated for most of the time, indicating the horizontal length scales of BrO events were typically larger than ˜ 30 km in the absence of sea ice features. Although BrO amount and vertical distribution were similar between sites most of the time, rapid changes in BrO with edges significantly smaller than this ˜ 30 km length scale episodically transported between the sites, indicating BrO events were large but with sharp edge contrasts. BrO was often found in shallow layers that recycled reactive bromine via heterogeneous reactions on snowpack. Episodically, these surface-based events propagated aloft when aerosol extinction was higher (> 0.1 km-1); however, the presence of aerosol particles aloft was not sufficient to produce BrO aloft. Highly depleted ozone (< 1 nmol mol-1) repartitioned reactive bromine away from BrO and drove BrO events aloft in cases. This work demonstrates the interplay between atmospheric mixing and heterogeneous chemistry that affects the vertical structure and horizontal extent of reactive bromine events.

Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2012-01-01

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides; however, there remain large uncertainties in characterizing the distribution of these hazards and meteorological triggers at the global scale. Researchers have evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local and regional scale primarily using in situ data, yet few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This research uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurence of precipitation and rainfall-triggered landslides globally. The GLC, available from 2007 to the present, contains information on reported rainfall-triggered landslide events around the world using online media reports, disaster databases, etc. When evaluating this database, we observed that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This research also considers the sources for this extreme rainfall, citing teleconnections from ENSO as likely contributors to regional precipitation variability. This work demonstrates the potential for using satellite-based precipitation estimates to identify potentially active landslide areas at the global scale in order to improve landslide cataloging and quantify landslide triggering at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Crater size estimates for large-body terrestrial impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Robert M.; Housen, Kevin R.

1988-01-01

Calculating the effects of impacts leading to global catastrophes requires knowledge of the impact process at very large size scales. This information cannot be obtained directly but must be inferred from subscale physical simulations, numerical simulations, and scaling laws. Schmidt and Holsapple presented scaling laws based upon laboratory-scale impact experiments performed on a centrifuge (Schmidt, 1980 and Schmidt and Holsapple, 1980). These experiments were used to develop scaling laws which were among the first to include gravity dependence associated with increasing event size. At that time using the results of experiments in dry sand and in water to provide bounds on crater size, they recognized that more precise bounds on large-body impact crater formation could be obtained with additional centrifuge experiments conducted in other geological media. In that previous work, simple power-law formulae were developed to relate final crater diameter to impactor size and velocity. In addition, Schmidt (1980) and Holsapple and Schmidt (1982) recognized that the energy scaling exponent is not a universal constant but depends upon the target media. Recently, Holsapple and Schmidt (1987) includes results for non-porous materials and provides a basis for estimating crater formation kinematics and final crater size. A revised set of scaling relationships for all crater parameters of interest are presented. These include results for various target media and include the kinematics of formation. Particular attention is given to possible limits brought about by very large impactors.

The effect of the geomagnetic field on cosmic ray energy estimates and large scale anisotropy searches on data from the Pierre Auger Observatory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abreu, P.; /Lisbon, IST; Aglietta, M.

2011-11-01

We present a comprehensive study of the influence of the geomagnetic field on the energy estimation of extensive air showers with a zenith angle smaller than 60{sup o}, detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory. The geomagnetic field induces an azimuthal modulation of the estimated energy of cosmic rays up to the {approx} 2% level at large zenith angles. We present a method to account for this modulation of the reconstructed energy. We analyse the effect of the modulation on large scale anisotropy searches in the arrival direction distributions of cosmic rays. At a given energy, the geomagnetic effect is shownmore » to induce a pseudo-dipolar pattern at the percent level in the declination distribution that needs to be accounted for. In this work, we have identified and quantified a systematic uncertainty affecting the energy determination of cosmic rays detected by the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory. This systematic uncertainty, induced by the influence of the geomagnetic field on the shower development, has a strength which depends on both the zenith and the azimuthal angles. Consequently, we have shown that it induces distortions of the estimated cosmic ray event rate at a given energy at the percent level in both the azimuthal and the declination distributions, the latter of which mimics an almost dipolar pattern. We have also shown that the induced distortions are already at the level of the statistical uncertainties for a number of events N {approx_equal} 32 000 (we note that the full Auger surface detector array collects about 6500 events per year with energies above 3 EeV). Accounting for these effects is thus essential with regard to the correct interpretation of large scale anisotropy measurements taking explicitly profit from the declination distribution.« less

Classifying hydrological events to quantify their impact on nitrate leaching across three spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauwe, Andreas; Tiemeyer, Bärbel; Kahle, Petra; Lennartz, Bernd

2015-04-01

Nitrate is one of the most important sources of pollution for surface waters in tile-drained agricultural areas. In order to develop appropriate management strategies to reduce nitrate losses, it is crucial to first understand the underlying hydrological processes. In this study, we used Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) to analyze 212 storm events between 2004 and 2011 across three spatial scales (collector drain, ditch, and brook) to identify the controlling factors for hydrograph response characteristics and their influence on nitrate concentration patterns. Our results showed that the 212 hydrological events can be classified into six different types: summer events (28%), snow-dominated events (10%), events controlled by rainfall duration (16%), rainfall totals (8%), dry antecedent conditions (10%), and events controlled by wet antecedent conditions (14%). The relatively large number of unclassified events (15%) demonstrated the difficulty in separating event types due to mutually influencing variables. NO3-N concentrations showed a remarkably consistent pattern during the discharge events regardless of event type, with minima at the beginning, increasing concentrations at the rising limb, and maxima around peak discharge. However, the level of NO3-N concentrations varied notably among the event types. The highest average NO3-N concentrations were found for events controlled by rainfall totals (NO3-N=17.1 mg/l), events controlled by wet antecedent conditions (NO3-N=17.1 mg/l), and snowmelt (NO3-N=15.2 mg/l). Average maximum NO3-N concentrations were significantly lower during summer events (NO3-N=10.2 mg/l) and events controlled by dry antecedent conditions (NO3-N=11.7 mg/l). The results have furthermore shown that similar hydrological and biogeochemical processes determine the hydrograph and NO3-N response on storm events at various spatial scales. The management of tile-drained agricultural land to reduce NO3-N losses should focus explicitly on flow events and, more specifically, active management should preferably be conducted in the winter season for discharge events after snowmelt, after heavy rain storms and when the soil moisture conditions are wet.

Local finite-amplitude wave activity as an objective diagnostic of midlatitude extreme weather

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang; Lu, Jian; Burrows, Alex D.

Midlatitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate related damage, yet our understanding of these extreme events is limited, partly due to the lack of a theoretical basis for midlatitude extreme weather. In this letter, the local finite-amplitude wave activity (LWA) of Huang and Nakamura [2015] is introduced as a diagnostic of the 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) to characterizing midlatitude weather events. It is found that the LWA climatology and its variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) agree broadly with the previously reported blocking frequency in literature. There is a strong seasonal and spatial dependencemore » in the trend13 s of LWA in recent decades. While there is no observational evidence for a hemispheric-scale increase in wave amplitude, robust trends in wave activity can be identified at the regional scales, with important implications for regional climate change.« less

From Wardens Air Force to Boyds Air Force

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

changing events.8 In this respect, armed forces can be viewed more accurately as perpetually evolving ecosystems than the unresponsive closed...large-scale full- motion video (FMV) exploitation. In the near-term, the service is already exploring emerging technology that can scan video for

An Assessment of Stream Confluence Flow Dynamics using Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry Captured from Unmanned Aerial Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Q. W.; Rhoads, B. L.

2017-12-01

The merging of rivers at confluences results in complex three-dimensional flow patterns that influence sediment transport, bed morphology, downstream mixing, and physical habitat conditions. The capacity to characterize comprehensively flow at confluences using traditional sensors, such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters and profiles, is limited by the restricted spatial resolution of these sensors and difficulties in measuring velocities simultaneously at many locations within a confluence. This study assesses two-dimensional surficial patterns of flow structure at a small stream confluence in Illinois, USA, using large scale particle image velocimetry (LSPIV) derived from videos captured by unmanned aerial systems (UAS). The method captures surface velocity patterns at high spatial and temporal resolution over multiple scales, ranging from the entire confluence to details of flow within the confluence mixing interface. Flow patterns at high momentum ratio are compared to flow patterns when the two incoming flows have nearly equal momentum flux. Mean surface flow patterns during the two types of events provide details on mean patterns of surface flow in different hydrodynamic regions of the confluence and on changes in these patterns with changing momentum flux ratio. LSPIV data derived from the highest resolution imagery also reveal general characteristics of large-scale vortices that form along the shear layer between the flows during the high-momentum ratio event. The results indicate that the use of LSPIV and UAS is well-suited for capturing in detail mean surface patterns of flow at small confluences, but that characterization of evolving turbulent structures is limited by scale considerations related to structure size, image resolution, and camera instability. Complementary methods, including camera platforms mounted at fixed positions close to the water surface, provide opportunities to accurately characterize evolving turbulent flow structures in confluences.

Multimodal integration of fMRI and EEG data for high spatial and temporal resolution analysis of brain networks

PubMed Central

Mantini, D.; Marzetti, L.; Corbetta, M.; Romani, G.L.; Del Gratta, C.

2017-01-01

Two major non-invasive brain mapping techniques, electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), have complementary advantages with regard to their spatial and temporal resolution. We propose an approach based on the integration of EEG and fMRI, enabling the EEG temporal dynamics of information processing to be characterized within spatially well-defined fMRI large-scale networks. First, the fMRI data are decomposed into networks by means of spatial independent component analysis (sICA), and those associated with intrinsic activity and/or responding to task performance are selected using information from the related time-courses. Next, the EEG data over all sensors are averaged with respect to event timing, thus calculating event-related potentials (ERPs). The ERPs are subjected to temporal ICA (tICA), and the resulting components are localized with the weighted minimum norm (WMNLS) algorithm using the task-related fMRI networks as priors. Finally, the temporal contribution of each ERP component in the areas belonging to the fMRI large-scale networks is estimated. The proposed approach has been evaluated on visual target detection data. Our results confirm that two different components, commonly observed in EEG when presenting novel and salient stimuli respectively, are related to the neuronal activation in large-scale networks, operating at different latencies and associated with different functional processes. PMID:20052528

Hydrocentric view of Agro-ecosystem Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Events in the High Plains, US.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Sharma, Ashutosh; Werner, Katherine; Chacon, Juan-Carlos; Corzo, Gerald; Goyal, Manish-Kumar

2017-04-01

An increasing incidence of Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events (EHCEs) is challenging food, water, and ecosystem services security at local to global contexts. This study aims to understand how a large-scale representation of agroecosystems and ecosystems respond to EHCE in the Northern Highplains, US. To track such responses the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) Land Surface Hydrology model was used and two experiments were implemented. The first experiment uses the LAI MODIS15A2 product to capture dynamic responses of vegetation with a time span from 2000 to 2013. The second experiment used a climatological fixed seasonal cycle calculated as the average from the 2000-2013 dynamic MODIS15A2 product to isolate vegetation from soil physical responses. Based on the analyses of multiple hydrological variables and state variables and high-level organization of agroecosystems and ecosystems, we evidence how the influence of droughts and anomalously wet conditions affect hydrological resilience at large scale.

A large-scale solar dynamics observatory image dataset for computer vision applications.

PubMed

Kucuk, Ahmet; Banda, Juan M; Angryk, Rafal A

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics Space Agency (NASA) Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission has given us unprecedented insight into the Sun's activity. By capturing approximately 70,000 images a day, this mission has created one of the richest and biggest repositories of solar image data available to mankind. With such massive amounts of information, researchers have been able to produce great advances in detecting solar events. In this resource, we compile SDO solar data into a single repository in order to provide the computer vision community with a standardized and curated large-scale dataset of several hundred thousand solar events found on high resolution solar images. This publicly available resource, along with the generation source code, will accelerate computer vision research on NASA's solar image data by reducing the amount of time spent performing data acquisition and curation from the multiple sources we have compiled. By improving the quality of the data with thorough curation, we anticipate a wider adoption and interest from the computer vision to the solar physics community.

Patterns of preference and practice: bridging actors in wildfire response networks in the American Northwest.

PubMed

Faas, A J; Velez, Anne-Lise K; FitzGerald, Clare; Nowell, Branda L; Steelman, Toddi A

2017-07-01

The roles of bridging actors in emergency response networks can be important to disaster response outcomes. This paper is based on an evaluation of wildfire preparedness and response networks in 21 large-scale wildfire events in the wildland-urban interface near national forests in the American Northwest. The study investigated how key individuals in responder networks anticipated seeking out specific people in perceived bridging roles prior to the occurrence of wildfires, and then captured who in fact assumed these roles during actual large-scale events. It examines two plausible, but contradictory, bodies of theory-similarity and dissimilarity-that suggest who people might seek out as bridgers and who they would really go to during a disaster. Roughly one-half of all pre-fire nominations were consistent with similarity. Yet, while similarity is a reliable indicator of how people expect to organise, it does not hold up for how they organise during the real incident. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

KASCADE-Grande experiment measurements of the cosmic ray spectrum and large scale anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiavassa, A.; Apel, W. D.; Arteaga-Velázquez, J. C.; Bekk, K.; Bertaina, M.; Blümer, J.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I. M.; Cantoni, E.; Cossavella, F.; Daumiller, K.; de Souza, V.; Di Pierro, F.; Doll, P.; Engel, R.; Fuhrmann, D.; Gherghel-Lascu, A.; Gils, H. J.; Glasstetter, R.; Grupen, C.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hörandel, J. R.; Huber, D.; Huege, T.; Kampert, K.-H.; Kang, D.; Klages, H. O.; Link, K.; Łuczak, P.; Mathes, H. J.; Mayer, H. J.; Milke, J.; Mitrica, B.; Morello, C.; Oehlschläger, J.; Ostapchenko, S.; Palmieri, N.; Pierog, T.; Rebel, H.; Roth, M.; Schieler, H.; Schoo, S.; Schröder, F. G.; Sima, O.; Toma, G.; Trinchero, G. C.; Ulrich, H.; Weindl, A.; Wochele, J.; Zabierowski, J.; KASCADE-Grande Collaboration

2016-10-01

The KASCADE-Grande experiment operated at KIT from January 2004 to November 2012, measuring Extensive Air Showers (EAS) generated by primary cosmic rays in the 1016-1018 eV energy range. The experiment measured, for each single event, with a high resolution, the total number of charged particles (Nch) and of muons (Nμ). In this contribution we summarize the results obtained about: (i) the measurement of the all particle energy spectrum, discussing the influence of the hadronic interaction model used to derive the energy calibration of the experimental data. (ii) The energy spectra derived separating the events according to the Nμ /Nch ratio. This technique allowed us to unveil a steepening of the spectrum of heavy primaries at E ˜10 16.92 ± 0.04 eV and a hardening of the spectrum of light primaries at E ˜10 17.08 ± 0.08 eV. (ii) A search for large scale anisotropies.

Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masrur, Arif; Petrov, Andrey N.; DeGroote, John

2018-01-01

Recent years have seen an increased frequency of wildfire events in different parts of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Contemporary studies have largely attributed these wildfire events to the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate and increased atmospheric disturbances (i.e. thunderstorms). However, existing research has primarily examined the wildfire-climate dynamics of individual large wildfire events. No studies have investigated wildfire activity, including climatic drivers, for the entire tundra biome across multiple years, i.e. at the planetary scale. To address this limitation, this paper provides a planetary/circumpolar scale analyses of space-time patterns of tundra wildfire occurrence and climatic association in the Arctic over a 15 year period (2001-2015). In doing so, we have leveraged and analyzed NASA Terra’s MODIS active fire and MERRA climate reanalysis products at multiple temporal scales (decadal, seasonal and monthly). Our exploratory spatial data analysis found that tundra wildfire occurrence was spatially clustered and fire intensity was spatially autocorrelated across the Arctic regions. Most of the wildfire events occurred in the peak summer months (June-August). Our multi-temporal (decadal, seasonal and monthly) scale analyses provide further support to the link between climate variability and wildfire activity. Specifically, we found that warm and dry conditions in the late spring to mid-summer influenced tundra wildfire occurrence, spatio-temporal distribution, and fire intensity. Additionally, reduced average surface precipitation and soil moisture levels in the winter-spring period were associated with increased fire intensity in the following summer. These findings enrich contemporary knowledge on tundra wildfire’s spatial and seasonal patterns, and shed new light on tundra wildfire-climate relationships in the circumpolar context. Furthermore, this first pan-Arctic analysis provides a strong incentive and direction for future studies which integrate multiple datasets (i.e. climate, fuels, topography, and ignition sources) to accurately estimate carbon emission from tundra burning and its global climate feedbacks in coming decades.

The Solar Flare: A Strongly Turbulent Particle Accelerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlahos, L.; Krucker, S.; Cargill, P.

The topics of explosive magnetic energy release on a large scale (a solar flare) and particle acceleration during such an event are rarely discussed together in the same article. Many discussions of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mod- eling of solar flares and/or CMEs have appeared (see [143] and references therein) and usually address large-scale destabilization of the coronal mag- netic field. Particle acceleration in solar flares has also been discussed exten- sively [74, 164, 116, 166, 87, 168, 95, 122, 35] with the main emphasis being on the actual mechanisms for acceleration (e.g., shocks, turbulence, DC electric fields) rather than the global magnetic context in which the acceleration takes place.

An Expected Value Air Combat Model Simulation Algorithm to Predict Missions Performance in Tactical Air Operations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

Approved by: Me<i W4 1tsZ7 CaifI ,KDpartmento I inistrative Science 3 ( ABSTRACT >This thesis intends to create the basic...a need for a small scale model which allows a student analyst of tactical air operations to create his own battles and to test his own strategies with...iconic model is a large or small-scale repre- sentation of states-objects, or events. For example a scale model airplance resembles the system under the

A giant mass failure in the northern flank of the Kueishantao Island off northeastern Taiwan: debris avalanches and related structures in the offshore downslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P. C.; Hsu, S. K.; Tsai, C. H.; Chen, S. C.

2016-12-01

Based on the ignimbrite layers, previous studies have shown that Kueishantao volcanic island has probably erupted four times in 7000 years. Strong smell of sulfur can easily detect at east of the island with some plumes from the seabed. In May 2016, an earthquake with magnitude 5 occurred to northeast of the island which has triggered small collapse events in the eastern subaerial part. Recent geophysical surveys have also revealed the distribution of submarine debris avalanches in the north, south and east part off Kueishantao volcanic island. With high-resolution swath bathymetric data, we can observe some debris avalanches distributed with hummocky relief around the island. In this study, we present the marine geophysical data in order to have better understanding of the landslide mechanism from the offshore data of the Kueishantao island, especially with the multi-beam bathymetric data, acoustic backscatter analysis, subbottom profile, sidescan sonar and 3.5kHz echo-sounder. At the north of the island, large-scale debris avalanches extend around 4 km northward with the several blocks height up to more than twenty meters; and, the offshore area of deposit is about 5 km2 of hummocky topography distribution. The scale of debris avalanches may be related to the horseshoe scar of subaerial flank and also submarine flank collapsed events. Nevertheless, to identify the landslide history, we need to analyze the related core data in the future. By analyzing the high-resolution geophysical data, we will discuss the possible mechanism or factors that trigger subaerial flank collapse events and also the transportation of the debris avalanches to the submarine basin. The large-scale collapse events may produce tsunamis and directly affect the coast of northeastern Taiwan.

Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

2014-12-01

Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal hydroclimatic drivers will allow us to harness the inherent system memory of these processes to develop early warning systems and strengthen prevention measures.

Modeling carbon production and transport during ELMs in DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogan, J.; Wade, M.; Coster, D.; Lasnier, C.

2004-11-01

Large-scale Type I ELM events could provide a significant C source in ITER, and C production rates depend on incident D flux density and surface temperature, quantities which can vary significantly during an ELM event. Recent progress on DIII-D has improved opportunities for code comparison. Fast time-scale measurements of divertor CIII evolution [1] and fast edge CER measurements of C profile evolution during low-density DIII-D LSN ELMy H-modes (type I) [2] have been modeled using the solps5.0/Eirene99 coupled edge code and time dependent thermal analysis codes. An ELM model based on characteristics of MHD peeling-ballooning modes reproduces the pedestal evolution. Qualitative agreement for the CIII evolution during an ELM event is found using the Roth et al annealing model for chemical sputtering and the sensitivity to other models is described. Significant ELM-to-ELM variations in observed maximum divertor target IR temperature during nominally identical ELMs are investigated with models for C emission from micron-scale dust particles. [1] M Groth, M Fenstermacher et al J Nucl Mater 2003, [2] M Wade, K Burrell et al PSI-16

Measurement of the dependence of transverse energy production at large pseudorapidity on the hard-scattering kinematics of proton–proton collisions at √s = 2.76 TeV with ATLAS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aad, G.

2016-03-02

The relationship between jet production in the central region and the underlying-event activity in a pseudorapidity-separated region is studied in 4.0 pb -1 of √s = 2.76 TeV pp collision data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The underlying event is characterised through measurements of the average value of the sum of the transverse energy at large pseudorapidity downstream of one of the protons, which are reported here as a function of hard-scattering kinematic variables. The hard scattering is characterised by the average transverse momentum and pseudorapidity of the two highest transverse momentum jets in the event. Themore » dijet kinematics are used to estimate, on an event-by-event basis, the scaled longitudinal momenta of the hard-scattered partons in the target and projectile beam-protons moving toward and away from the region measuring transverse energy, respectively. Transverse energy production at large pseudorapidity is observed to decrease with a linear dependence on the longitudinal momentum fraction in the target proton and to depend only weakly on that in the projectile proton. Lastly, the results are compared to the predictions of various Monte Carlo event generators, which qualitatively reproduce the trends observed in data but generally underpredict the overall level of transverse energy at forward pseudorapidity.« less

Outline of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, Earthquakes and lessons for a large urban earthquake in Tokyo Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.

2016-12-01

A series of devastating earthquakes hit Kumamoto districts in Kyushu, Japan, in April, 2016. The M6.5 event occurred at 21:26 on April 14th (JST) and, 28 hours later, the M7.3 event occurred at 01:25 on April 17th (JST) at almost the same location with a depth of 10 km. The both earthquakes were felt with a seismic intensity of 7 in Japan Metrological Agency (JMA) scale at Mashiki Town. The intensity of 7 is the highest level by definition. Very strong accelerations are observed by the M6.5 event with 1,580 gal at KiK-net Mashiki station and 1,791 gal by the M7.3 event at Ohtsu City station. As a result, more than 8,000 houses are totally collapsed, 26,000 are heavily collapsed, and 120,000 are partially damaged. There are 49 people directly killed and 32 are indirectly killed by the quakes. The most important lesson from the Kumamoto earthquake is that a very strong ground motion may hit immediately after the first large event, say in a few days. This has serious impact to a house damaged by the first large quake. In the 2016 Kumamoto sequence there are also many strong aftershocks including 4 M5.8-5.9 events till April 18th. More than 180,000 people, at most, took shelter because of scaring many strong aftershocks. I will discuss both natural and human aspects of the Kumamoto earthquake disaster by the in-land shallow large earthquakes suggesting lessons for the large Metropolitan Earthquakes in Tokyo, Japan.

The ATLAS Simulation Infrastructure

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2010-09-25

The simulation software for the ATLAS Experiment at the Large Hadron Collider is being used for large-scale production of events on the LHC Computing Grid. This simulation requires many components, from the generators that simulate particle collisions, through packages simulating the response of the various detectors and triggers. All of these components come together under the ATLAS simulation infrastructure. In this paper, that infrastructure is discussed, including that supporting the detector description, interfacing the event generation, and combining the GEANT4 simulation of the response of the individual detectors. Also described are the tools allowing the software validation, performance testing, andmore » the validation of the simulated output against known physics processes.« less

Adapting the serial Alpgen parton-interaction generator to simulate LHC collisions on millions of parallel threads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, J. T.; Uram, T. D.; LeCompte, T. J.; Papka, M. E.; Benjamin, D. P.

2017-01-01

As the LHC moves to higher energies and luminosity, the demand for computing resources increases accordingly and will soon outpace the growth of the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid. To meet this greater demand, event generation Monte Carlo was targeted for adaptation to run on Mira, the supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. Alpgen is a Monte Carlo event generation application that is used by LHC experiments in the simulation of collisions that take place in the Large Hadron Collider. This paper details the process by which Alpgen was adapted from a single-processor serial-application to a large-scale parallel-application and the performance that was achieved.

Daily GRACE gravity field solutions track major flood events in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouweleeuw, Ben T.; Kvas, Andreas; Gruber, Christian; Gain, Animesh K.; Mayer-Gürr, Thorsten; Flechtner, Frank; Güntner, Andreas

2018-05-01

Two daily gravity field solutions based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are evaluated against daily river runoff data for major flood events in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD) in 2004 and 2007. The trends over periods of a few days of the daily GRACE data reflect temporal variations in daily river runoff during major flood events. This is especially true for the larger flood in 2007, which featured two distinct periods of critical flood level exceedance in the Brahmaputra River. This first hydrological evaluation of daily GRACE gravity field solutions based on a Kalman filter approach confirms their potential for gravity-based large-scale flood monitoring. This particularly applies to short-lived, high-volume floods, as they occur in the GBD with a 4-5-year return period. The release of daily GRACE gravity field solutions in near-real time may enable flood monitoring for large events.

Evaluating Southern Ocean Carbon Eddy-Pump From Biogeochemical-Argo Floats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llort, Joan; Langlais, C.; Matear, R.; Moreau, S.; Lenton, A.; Strutton, Peter G.

2018-02-01

The vertical transport of surface water and carbon into ocean's interior, known as subduction, is one of the main mechanisms through which the ocean influences Earth's climate. New instrumental approaches have shown the occurrence of localized and intermittent subduction episodes associated with small-scale ocean circulation features. These studies also revealed the importance of such events for the export of organic matter, the so-called eddy-pump. However, the transient and localized nature of episodic subduction hindered its large-scale evaluation to date. In this work, we present an approach to detect subduction events at the scale of the Southern Ocean using measurements collected by biogeochemical autonomous floats (BGCArgo). We show how subduction events can be automatically identified as anomalies of spiciness and Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) below the mixed layer. Using this methodology over more than 4,000 profiles, we detected 40 subduction events unevenly distributed across the Sothern Ocean. Events were more likely found in hot spots of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), downstream major bathymetric features. Moreover, the bio-optical measurements provided by BGCArgo allowed measuring the amount of Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) being subducted and assessing the contribution of these events to the total downward carbon flux at 100 m (EP100). We estimated that the eddy-pump represents less than 19% to the EP100 in the Southern Ocean, although we observed particularly strong events able to locally duplicate the EP100. This approach provides a novel perspective on where episodic subduction occurs that will be naturally improved as BGCArgo observations continue to increase.

Applying complex networks to evaluate precipitation patterns over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciemer, Catrin; Boers, Niklas; Barbosa, Henrique; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja

2016-04-01

The climate of South America exhibits pronounced differences between the wet- and the dry-season, which are accompanied by specific synoptic events like changes in the location of the South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) and the establishment of the South American Convergence Zone (SACZ). The onset of these events can be related to the presence of typical large-scale precipitation patterns over South America, as previous studies have shown[1,2]. The application of complex network methods to precipitation data recently received increased scientific attention for the special case of extreme events, as it is possible with such methods to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation structure as well as possible teleconnections of these events[3,4]. In these approaches the correlation between precipitation datasets is calculated by means of Event Synchronization which restricts their applicability to extreme precipitation events. In this work, we propose a method which is able to consider not only extreme precipitation but complete time series. A direct application of standard similarity measures in order to correlate precipitation time series is impossible due to their intricate statistical properties as the large amount of zeros. Therefore, we introduced and evaluated a suitable modification of Pearson's correlation coefficient to construct spatial correlation networks of precipitation. By analyzing the characteristics of spatial correlation networks constructed on the basis of this new measure, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections of correlated areas, and detect central regions for precipitation correlation. By analyzing the change of the network over the year[5], we are also able to determine local and global changes in precipitation correlation patterns. Additionally, global network characteristics as the network connectivity yield indications for beginning and end of wet- and dry season. In order to identify large-scale synoptic events like the SACZ and SALLJ onset, detecting the changes of correlation over time between certain regions is of significant relevance. [1] Nieto-Ferreira et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2011) [2] Vera et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2006) [3] Quiroga et al. Physical review E (2002) [4] Boers et al. nature communications (2014) [5] Radebach et al. Physical review E (2013)

Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

2016-04-01

This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

Intrinsic fluctuations of the proton saturation momentum scale in high multiplicity p+p collisions

DOE PAGES

McLerran, Larry; Tribedy, Prithwish

2015-11-02

High multiplicity events in p+p collisions are studied using the theory of the Color Glass Condensate. Here, we show that intrinsic fluctuations of the proton saturation momentum scale are needed in addition to the sub-nucleonic color charge fluctuations to explain the very high multiplicity tail of distributions in p+p collisions. It is presumed that the origin of such intrinsic fluctuations is non-perturbative in nature. Classical Yang Mills simulations using the IP-Glasma model are performed to make quantitative estimations. Furthermore, we find that fluctuations as large as O(1) of the average values of the saturation momentum scale can lead to raremore » high multiplicity events seen in p+p data at RHIC and LHC energies. Using the available data on multiplicity distributions we try to constrain the distribution of the proton saturation momentum scale and make predictions for the multiplicity distribution in 13 TeV p+p collisions.« less

Large-scale structures of solar wind and dynamics of parameters in them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yermolaev, Yuri; Lodkina, Irina; Yermolaev, Michael

2017-04-01

On the basis of OMNI dataset and our catalog of large-scale solar wind (SW) phenomena (see web-site ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/ and paper by Yermolaev et al., 2009) we study temporal profile of interplanetary and magnetospheric parameters in following SW phenomena: interplanetary manifestation of coronal mass ejection (ICME) including magnetic cloud (MC) and Ejecta, Sheath—compression region before ICME and corotating interaction region (CIR)—compression region before high-speed stream (HSS) of solar wind. To take into account a possible influence of other SW types, following sequences of phenomena, which include all typical sequences of non-stationary SW events, are analyzed: (1) SW/ CIR/ SW, (2) SW/ IS/ CIR/ SW, (3) SW/ Ejecta/ SW, (4) SW/ Sheath/Ejecta/ SW, (5) SW/ IS/ Sheath/ Ejecta/ SW, (6) SW/ MC/ SW, (7) SW/Sheath/ MC/ SW, (8) SW/ IS/ Sheath/ MC/ SW (where SW is undisturbed solar wind, and IS is interplanetary shock) (Yermolaev et al., 2015) using the method of double superposed epoch analysis for large numbers of events (Yermolaev et al., 2010). Similarities and distinctions of different SW phenomena depending on neighboring SW types and their geoeffectiveness are discussed. The work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, projects 16-12-10062. References: Yermolaev, Yu. I., N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina, and M. Yu. Yermolaev (2009), Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during 1976-2000, Cosmic Research, , Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 81-94. Yermolaev, Y. I., N. S. Nikolaeva, I. G. Lodkina, and M. Y. Yermolaev (2010), Specific interplanetary conditions for CIR-induced, Sheath-induced, and ICME-induced geomagnetic storms obtained by double superposed epoch analysis, Ann. Geophys., 28, pp. 2177-2186. Yermolaev, Yu. I., I. G. Lodkina, N. S. Nikolaeva, and M. Yu. Yermolaev (2015), Dynamics of large-scale solar wind streams obtained by the double superposed epoch analysis, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JA021274.

Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

PubMed

Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

2015-02-24

Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland

PubMed Central

Baynes, Edwin R. C.; Attal, Mikaël; Kirstein, Linda A.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Naylor, Mark

2015-01-01

Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (100 to 103 h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>103 y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic 3He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m3/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene. PMID:25675484

Non-Potential Magnetic Fields and Magnetic Reconnection In Low Collisional Plasmas-Discovery of Solar EUV Mini-Sigmoids and Development of Novel In-Space Propulsion Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesny, David

Magnetic reconnection is the source of many of the most powerful explosions of astrophysical plasmas in the universe. Blazars, magnetars, stellar atmospheres, and planetary magnetic fields have all been shown to be primary sites of strong reconnection events. For studying the fundamental physics behind this process, the solar atmosphere is our most accessible laboratory setting. Magnetic reconnection resulting from non-potential fields leads to plasma heating and particle acceleration, often in the form of explosive activity, contributing to coronal heating and the solar wind. Large-scale non-potential (sigmoid) fields in the solar atmosphere are poorly understood due to their crowded neighborhoods. For the first time, small-scale, non-potential loop structures have been observed in quiet Sun EUV observations. Fourteen unique mini-sigmoid events and three diffuse non-potential loops have been discovered, suggesting a multi-scaled self-similarity in the sigmoid formation process. These events are on the order of 10 arcseconds in length and do not appear in X-ray emissions, where large-scale sigmoids are well documented. We have discovered the first evidence of sigmoidal structuring in EUV bright point phenomena, which are prolific events in the solar atmosphere. Observations of these mini-sigmoids suggest that they are being formed via tether-cutting reconnection, a process observed to occur at active region scales. Thus, tether-cutting is suggested to be ubiquitous throughout the solar atmosphere. These dynamics are shown to be a function of the free magnetic energy in the quiet Sun network. Recently, the reconnection process has been reproduced in Earth-based laboratory tokamaks. Easily achievable magnetic field configurations can induce reconnection and result in ion acceleration. Here, magnetic reconnection is utilized as the plasma acceleration mechanism for a theoretical propulsion system. The theory of torsional spine reconnection is shown to result in ion velocities of > 3000 km s-1 and thrusts on the order of 3-15 N. As current in-use ion propulsion technology can only achieve ˜ 30 km s-1, the proposed design can substantially increase thrust on a spacecraft and provide for fast manned interplanetary travel.

Public health. Street smart.

PubMed

Edwards, Nick

2003-05-15

It can be difficult to reach people in their teens and early 20s with overt public health messages. Borrowing some of the messages and mediums of 'alternative culture' marketing can be more effective. It is possible to organise large-scale events cheaply with the right funding and entertainment partners.

New early warning system for gravity-driven ruptures based on codetection of acoustic signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faillettaz, J.

2016-12-01

Gravity-driven rupture phenomena in natural media - e.g. landslide, rockfalls, snow or ice avalanches - represent an important class of natural hazards in mountainous regions. To protect the population against such events, a timely evacuation often constitutes the only effective way to secure the potentially endangered area. However, reliable prediction of imminence of such failure events remains challenging due to the nonlinear and complex nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state, and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.). Here, a simple method for real-time early warning that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. This new method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event-codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events (i.e., detected concurrently on more than one sensor) marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Simple numerical model based on a Fiber Bundle Model considering signal attenuation and hypothetical arrays of sensors confirms the early warning potential of codetection principles. Results suggest that although statistical properties of attenuated signal amplitude could lead to misleading results, monitoring the emergence of large events announcing impeding failure is possible even with attenuated signals depending on sensor network geometry and detection threshold. Preliminary application of the proposed method to acoustic emissions during failure of snow samples has confirmed the potential use of codetection as indicator for imminent failure at lab scale. The applicability of such simple and cheap early warning system is now investigated at a larger scale (hillslope). First results of such a pilot field experiment are presented and analysed.

Earthquakes drive large-scale submarine canyon development and sediment supply to deep-ocean basins.

PubMed

Mountjoy, Joshu J; Howarth, Jamie D; Orpin, Alan R; Barnes, Philip M; Bowden, David A; Rowden, Ashley A; Schimel, Alexandre C G; Holden, Caroline; Horgan, Huw J; Nodder, Scott D; Patton, Jason R; Lamarche, Geoffroy; Gerstenberger, Matthew; Micallef, Aaron; Pallentin, Arne; Kane, Tim

2018-03-01

Although the global flux of sediment and carbon from land to the coastal ocean is well known, the volume of material that reaches the deep ocean-the ultimate sink-and the mechanisms by which it is transferred are poorly documented. Using a globally unique data set of repeat seafloor measurements and samples, we show that the moment magnitude ( M w ) 7.8 November 2016 Kaikōura earthquake (New Zealand) triggered widespread landslides in a submarine canyon, causing a powerful "canyon flushing" event and turbidity current that traveled >680 km along one of the world's longest deep-sea channels. These observations provide the first quantification of seafloor landscape change and large-scale sediment transport associated with an earthquake-triggered full canyon flushing event. The calculated interevent time of ~140 years indicates a canyon incision rate of 40 mm year -1 , substantially higher than that of most terrestrial rivers, while synchronously transferring large volumes of sediment [850 metric megatons (Mt)] and organic carbon (7 Mt) to the deep ocean. These observations demonstrate that earthquake-triggered canyon flushing is a primary driver of submarine canyon development and material transfer from active continental margins to the deep ocean.

Earthquakes drive large-scale submarine canyon development and sediment supply to deep-ocean basins

PubMed Central

Mountjoy, Joshu J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Orpin, Alan R.; Barnes, Philip M.; Bowden, David A.; Rowden, Ashley A.; Schimel, Alexandre C. G.; Holden, Caroline; Horgan, Huw J.; Nodder, Scott D.; Patton, Jason R.; Lamarche, Geoffroy; Gerstenberger, Matthew; Micallef, Aaron; Pallentin, Arne; Kane, Tim

2018-01-01

Although the global flux of sediment and carbon from land to the coastal ocean is well known, the volume of material that reaches the deep ocean—the ultimate sink—and the mechanisms by which it is transferred are poorly documented. Using a globally unique data set of repeat seafloor measurements and samples, we show that the moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 November 2016 Kaikōura earthquake (New Zealand) triggered widespread landslides in a submarine canyon, causing a powerful “canyon flushing” event and turbidity current that traveled >680 km along one of the world’s longest deep-sea channels. These observations provide the first quantification of seafloor landscape change and large-scale sediment transport associated with an earthquake-triggered full canyon flushing event. The calculated interevent time of ~140 years indicates a canyon incision rate of 40 mm year−1, substantially higher than that of most terrestrial rivers, while synchronously transferring large volumes of sediment [850 metric megatons (Mt)] and organic carbon (7 Mt) to the deep ocean. These observations demonstrate that earthquake-triggered canyon flushing is a primary driver of submarine canyon development and material transfer from active continental margins to the deep ocean. PMID:29546245

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spagliardi, Fabio

Liquid argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) are becoming widely used as neutrino detectors because of their image-like event reconstruction which enables precision neutrino measurements. They primarily use ionisation charge to reconstruct neutrino events. It has been shown, however, that the scintillation light emitted by liquid argon could be exploited to improve their performance. As the neutrino measurements planned in the near future require large-scale experiments, their construction presents challenges in terms of both charge and light collection. In this dissertation we present solutions developed to improve the performance in both aspects of these detectors. We present a new wire tensioningmore » measurement method that allows a remote measurement of the tension of the large number wires that constitute the TPC anode. We also discuss the development and installation of WLS-compound covered foils for the SBND neutrino detector at Fermilab, which is a technique proposed t o augment light collection in LArTPCs. This included preparing a SBND-like mesh cathode and testing it in the Run III of LArIAT, a test beam detector also located at Fermilab. Finally, we present a study aimed at understanding late scintillation light emitted by recombining positive argon ions using LArIAT data, which could affect large scale surface detectors.« less

Comparing catchment hydrologic response to a regional storm using specific conductivity sensors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inserillo, Ashley; Green, Mark B.; Shanley, James B.; Boyer, Joseph

2017-01-01

A better understanding of stormwater generation and solute sources is needed to improve the protection of aquatic ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health from large runoff events. Much of our understanding of water and solutes produced during stormflow comes from studies of individual, small headwater catchments. This study compared many different types of catchments during a single large event to help isolate landscape controls on streamwater and solute generation, including human-impacted land cover. We used a distributed network of specific electrical conductivity sensors to trace storm response during the post-tropical cyclone Sandy event of October 2012 at 29 catchments across the state of New Hampshire. A citizen science sensor network, Lotic Volunteer for Temperature, Electrical Conductivity, and Stage, provided a unique opportunity to investigate high-temporal resolution stream behavior at a broad spatial scale. Three storm response metrics were analyzed in this study: (a) fraction of new water contributing to the hydrograph; (b) presence of first flush (mobilization of solutes during the beginning of the rain event); and (c) magnitude of first flush. We compared new water and first flush to 64 predictor attributes related to land cover, soil, topography, and precipitation. The new water fraction was positively correlated with low and medium intensity development in the catchment and riparian buffers and with the precipitation from a rain event 9 days prior to Sandy. The presence of first flush was most closely related (positively) to soil organic matter. Magnitude of first flush was not strongly related to any of the catchment variables. Our results highlight the potentially important role of human landscape modification in runoff generation at multiple spatial scales and the lack of a clear role in solute flushing. Further development of regional-scale in situ sensor networks will provide better understanding of stormflow and solute generation across a wide range of landscape conditions.

Hydrodynamic predictions for 5.44 TeV Xe+Xe collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giacalone, Giuliano; Noronha-Hostler, Jacquelyn; Luzum, Matthew; Ollitrault, Jean-Yves

2018-03-01

We argue that relativistic hydrodynamics is able to make robust predictions for soft particle production in Xe+Xe collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The change of system size from Pb+Pb to Xe+Xe provides a unique opportunity to test the scaling laws inherent to fluid dynamics. Using event-by-event hydrodynamic simulations, we make quantitative predictions for several observables: mean transverse momentum, anisotropic flow coefficients, and their fluctuations. Results are shown as a function of collision centrality.

Formulation and Optimization of Robust Sensor Placement Problems for Drinking Water Contamination Warning Systems

DOE PAGES

Watson, Jean-Paul; Murray, Regan; Hart, William E.

2009-11-13

We report that the sensor placement problem in contamination warning system design for municipal water distribution networks involves maximizing the protection level afforded by limited numbers of sensors, typically quantified as the expected impact of a contamination event; the issue of how to mitigate against high-consequence events is either handled implicitly or ignored entirely. Consequently, expected-case sensor placements run the risk of failing to protect against high-consequence 9/11-style attacks. In contrast, robust sensor placements address this concern by focusing strictly on high-consequence events and placing sensors to minimize the impact of these events. We introduce several robust variations of themore » sensor placement problem, distinguished by how they quantify the potential damage due to high-consequence events. We explore the nature of robust versus expected-case sensor placements on three real-world large-scale distribution networks. We find that robust sensor placements can yield large reductions in the number and magnitude of high-consequence events, with only modest increases in expected impact. Finally, the ability to trade-off between robust and expected-case impacts is a key unexplored dimension in contamination warning system design.« less

Aftershocks following crash of currency exchange rate: The case of RUB/USD in 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usmanova, Vasilya; Lysogorskiy, Yury V.; Abe, Sumiyoshi

2018-02-01

The dynamical behavior of the currency exchange rate after its large-scale catastrophe is discussed through a case study of the rate of Russian rubles to US dollars after its crash in 2014. It is shown that, similarly to the case of the stock market crash, the relaxation is characterized by a power law, which is in analogy with the Omori-Utsu law for earthquake aftershocks. The waiting-time distribution is found to also obey a power law. Furthermore, the event-event correlation is discussed, and the aging phenomenon and scaling property are observed. Comments are made on (non-)Markovianity of the aftershock process and on a possible relevance of glassy dynamics to the market system after the crash.

Hard X-Ray Constraints on Small-Scale Coronal Heating Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Andrew; Smith, David M.; Glesener, Lindsay; Klimchuk, James A.; Bradshaw, Stephen; Hannah, Iain; Vievering, Juliana; Ishikawa, Shin-Nosuke; Krucker, Sam; Christe, Steven

2017-08-01

A large body of evidence suggests that the solar corona is heated impulsively. Small-scale heating events known as nanoflares may be ubiquitous in quiet and active regions of the Sun. Hard X-ray (HXR) observations with unprecedented sensitivity >3 keV have recently been enabled through the use of focusing optics. We analyze active region spectra from the FOXSI-2 sounding rocket and the NuSTAR satellite to constrain the physical properties of nanoflares simulated with the EBTEL field-line-averaged hydrodynamics code. We model a wide range of X-ray spectra by varying the nanoflare heating amplitude, duration, delay time, and filling factor. Additional constraints on the nanoflare parameter space are determined from energy constraints and EUV/SXR data.

Interactions between cumulus convection and its environment as revealed by the MC3E sounding array

DOE PAGES

Xie, Shaocheng; Zhang, Yunyan; Giangrande, Scott E.; ...

2014-10-27

This study attempts to understand interactions between midlatitude convective systems and their environments through a heat and moisture budget analysis using the sounding data collected from the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) in central Oklahoma. Distinct large-scale structures and diabatic heating and drying profiles are presented for cases of weaker and elevated thunderstorms as well as intense squall line and supercell thunderstorm events during the campaign. The elevated cell events were nocturnal convective systems occurring in an environment having low convective available potential energy (CAPE) and a very dry boundary layer. In contrast, deeper convective events happened during themore » morning into early afternoon within an environment associated with large CAPE and a near-saturated boundary layer. As the systems reached maturity, the diagnosed diabatic heating in the latter deep convective cases was much stronger and of greater vertical extent than the former. Both groups showed considerable diabatic cooling in the lower troposphere, associated with the evaporation of precipitation and low-level clouds. The horizontal advection of moisture also played a dominant role in moistening the lower troposphere, particularly for the deeper convective events, wherein the near surface southeasterly flow allows persistent low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico to support convection. The moisture convergence often was present before these systems develop, suggesting a strong correlation between the large-scale moisture convergence and convection. As a result, sensitivity tests indicated that the uncertainty in the surface precipitation and the size of analysis domain mainly affected the magnitude of these analyzed fields rather than their vertical structures.« less

Infrasound production by bolides: A global statistical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ens, T. A.; Brown, P. G.; Edwards, W. N.; Silber, E. A.

2012-05-01

We have examined a dataset consisting of 71 bolides detected by satellite sensors, which provide energy and location estimates, with simultaneous measurements of the same events on 143 distinct waveforms. These bolides have total source energies ranging from 0.02 kt TNT equivalent yield to ≈20 kt and probable diameters of order a few meters on average. We find that it is possible to detect large events with energies of ≈20 kt or more globally. Infrasonic detections of these events for stratospheric arrivals have ranges between 350-17,000 km and show clear wind-related amplitude modifications. We find that our period-yield relations are virtually identical to that found from AFTAC nuclear test data with the most robust period-yield correlation found for those events having multiple station averaged periods. We have also found empirical expressions relating maximum expected detection range for infrasound as a function of energy and low and high frequency cut-off as a function of energy. Our multi-variate fits suggest that 1/2 > yield-scaling is most appropriate for long range bolide infrasound measurements with a distance scaling exponent of ≈1.1 best representing the data. Our best-fit wind correction exponent is a factor of ≈3 smaller than found by previous studies which we suggest may indicate a decrease in the value of k with range. We find that the integral acoustic efficiency for bolides is ≥0.01% with a best lower limit estimate nearer 0.1%. Finally, we conclude that a range independent atmosphere implementation of the normal-mode approach to simulate bolide amplitudes is ineffective at large ranges due to the large change in atmospheric conditions along source-receiver paths.

Addressing Methodological Challenges in Large Communication Data Sets: Collecting and Coding Longitudinal Interactions in Home Hospice Cancer Care.

PubMed

Reblin, Maija; Clayton, Margaret F; John, Kevin K; Ellington, Lee

2016-07-01

In this article, we present strategies for collecting and coding a large longitudinal communication data set collected across multiple sites, consisting of more than 2000 hours of digital audio recordings from approximately 300 families. We describe our methods within the context of implementing a large-scale study of communication during cancer home hospice nurse visits, but this procedure could be adapted to communication data sets across a wide variety of settings. This research is the first study designed to capture home hospice nurse-caregiver communication, a highly understudied location and type of communication event. We present a detailed example protocol encompassing data collection in the home environment, large-scale, multisite secure data management, the development of theoretically-based communication coding, and strategies for preventing coder drift and ensuring reliability of analyses. Although each of these challenges has the potential to undermine the utility of the data, reliability between coders is often the only issue consistently reported and addressed in the literature. Overall, our approach demonstrates rigor and provides a "how-to" example for managing large, digitally recorded data sets from collection through analysis. These strategies can inform other large-scale health communication research.

Addressing Methodological Challenges in Large Communication Datasets: Collecting and Coding Longitudinal Interactions in Home Hospice Cancer Care

PubMed Central

Reblin, Maija; Clayton, Margaret F; John, Kevin K; Ellington, Lee

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present strategies for collecting and coding a large longitudinal communication dataset collected across multiple sites, consisting of over 2000 hours of digital audio recordings from approximately 300 families. We describe our methods within the context of implementing a large-scale study of communication during cancer home hospice nurse visits, but this procedure could be adapted to communication datasets across a wide variety of settings. This research is the first study designed to capture home hospice nurse-caregiver communication, a highly understudied location and type of communication event. We present a detailed example protocol encompassing data collection in the home environment, large-scale, multi-site secure data management, the development of theoretically-based communication coding, and strategies for preventing coder drift and ensuring reliability of analyses. Although each of these challenges have the potential to undermine the utility of the data, reliability between coders is often the only issue consistently reported and addressed in the literature. Overall, our approach demonstrates rigor and provides a “how-to” example for managing large, digitally-recorded data sets from collection through analysis. These strategies can inform other large-scale health communication research. PMID:26580414

Bursting process of large- and small-scale structures in turbulent boundary layer perturbed by a cylinder roughness element

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zhanqi; Jiang, Nan; Zheng, Xiaobo; Wu, Yanhua

2016-05-01

Hot-wire measurements on a turbulent boundary layer flow perturbed by a wall-mounted cylinder roughness element (CRE) are carried out in this study. The cylindrical element protrudes into the logarithmic layer, which is similar to those employed in turbulent boundary layers by Ryan et al. (AIAA J 49:2210-2220, 2011. doi: 10.2514/1.j051012) and Zheng and Longmire (J Fluid Mech 748:368-398, 2014. doi: 10.1017/jfm.2014.185) and in turbulent channel flow by Pathikonda and Christensen (AIAA J 53:1-10, 2014. doi: 10.2514/1.j053407). The similar effects on both the mean velocity and Reynolds stress are observed downstream of the CRE perturbation. The series of hot-wire data are decomposed into large- and small-scale fluctuations, and the characteristics of large- and small-scale bursting process are observed, by comparing the bursting duration, period and frequency between CRE-perturbed case and unperturbed case. It is indicated that the CRE perturbation performs the significant impact on the large- and small-scale structures, but within the different impact scenario. Moreover, the large-scale bursting process imposes a modulation on the bursting events of small-scale fluctuations and the overall trend of modulation is not essentially sensitive to the present CRE perturbation, even the modulation extent is modified. The conditionally averaging fluctuations are also plotted, which further confirms the robustness of the bursting modulation in the present experiments.

Climate, Water, and Human Health: Large Scale Hydroclimatic Controls in Forecasting Cholera Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2009-12-01

Despite ravaging the continents through seven global pandemics in past centuries, the seasonal and interannual variability of cholera outbreaks remain a mystery. Previous studies have focused on the role of various environmental and climatic factors, but provided little or no predictive capability. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of large scale hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - and attempt to explain the seasonality and the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia. We investigate the seasonal and interannual nature of cholera epidemiology in three geographically distinct locations within the region to identify the larger scale hydroclimatic controls that can set the ecological and environmental ‘stage’ for outbreaks and have significant memory on a seasonal scale. Here we show that two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large scale climatic controls prevail in the region. An implication of our findings is that extreme climatic events such as prolonged droughts, record floods, and major cyclones may cause major disruption in the ecosystem and trigger large epidemics. We postulate that a quantitative understanding of the large-scale hydroclimatic controls and dominant processes with significant system memory will form the basis for forecasting such epidemic outbreaks. A multivariate regression method using these predictor variables to develop probabilistic forecasts of cholera outbreaks will be explored. Forecasts from such a system with a seasonal lead-time are likely to have measurable impact on early cholera detection and prevention efforts in endemic regions.

Hydrologic Impacts Associated with the Increased Role of Wildland Fire Across the Rangeland-Xeric Forest Continuum of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J.; Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Boll, J.; Al-Hamdan, O. Z.

2011-12-01

The increased role of wildland fire across the rangeland-xeric forest continuum in the western United States (US) presents landscape-scale consequences relative runoff and erosion. Concomitant climate conditions and altered plant community transitions in recent decades along grassland-shrubland-woodland-xeric forest transitions have promoted frequent and large wildland fires, and the continuance of the trend appears likely if current or warming climate conditions prevail. Much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West in the US now exists in a state in which rangeland and woodland wildfires stimulated by invasive cheatgrass and dense, horizontal and vertical fuel layers have a greater likelihood of progressing upslope into xeric forests. Drier moisture conditions and warmer seasonal air temperatures, along with dense fuel loads, have lengthened fire seasons and facilitated an increase in the frequency, severity and area burned in mid-elevation western US forests. These changes potentially increase the overall hydrologic vulnerability across the rangeland-xeric forest continuum by spatially and temporally increasing soil surface exposure to runoff and erosion processes. Plot-to-hillslope scale studies demonstrate burning may increase event runoff and/or erosion by factors of 2-40 over small-plots scales and more than 100-fold over large-plot to hillslope scales. Anecdotal reports of large-scale flooding and debris-flow events from rangelands and xeric forests following burning document the potential risk to resources (soil loss, water quality, degraded aquatic habitat, etc.), property and infrastructure, and human life. Such risks are particularly concerning for urban centers near the urban-wildland interface. We do not yet know the long-term ramifications of frequent soil loss associated with commonly occurring runoff events on repeatedly burned sites. However, plot to landscape-scale post-fire erosion rate estimates suggest potential losses of biologically important surface soils may be critically damaging for rangelands given inherent slow soil formation rates. This study presents a summary of fire effects on runoff and erosion across the rangeland-xeric forest continuum of the western US and highlights how that knowledge addresses post-fire hydrologic modeling needs. Further, we present a conceptual framework for advancing post-fire hydrologic vulnerability assessment and identify key areas for future research.

Age distribution of human gene families shows significant roles of both large- and small-scale duplications in vertebrate evolution.

PubMed

Gu, Xun; Wang, Yufeng; Gu, Jianying

2002-06-01

The classical (two-round) hypothesis of vertebrate genome duplication proposes two successive whole-genome duplication(s) (polyploidizations) predating the origin of fishes, a view now being seriously challenged. As the debate largely concerns the relative merits of the 'big-bang mode' theory (large-scale duplication) and the 'continuous mode' theory (constant creation by small-scale duplications), we tested whether a significant proportion of paralogous genes in the contemporary human genome was indeed generated in the early stage of vertebrate evolution. After an extensive search of major databases, we dated 1,739 gene duplication events from the phylogenetic analysis of 749 vertebrate gene families. We found a pattern characterized by two waves (I, II) and an ancient component. Wave I represents a recent gene family expansion by tandem or segmental duplications, whereas wave II, a rapid paralogous gene increase in the early stage of vertebrate evolution, supports the idea of genome duplication(s) (the big-bang mode). Further analysis indicated that large- and small-scale gene duplications both make a significant contribution during the early stage of vertebrate evolution to build the current hierarchy of the human proteome.

Preliminary SPE Phase II Far Field Ground Motion Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steedman, David W.

2014-03-06

Phase II of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) program will be conducted in alluvium. Several candidate sites were identified. These include existing large diameter borehole U1e. One criterion for acceptance is expected far field ground motion. In June 2013 we were requested to estimate peak response 2 km from the borehole due to the largest planned SPE Phase II experiment: a contained 50- Ton event. The cube-root scaled range for this event is 5423 m/KT 1/3. The generally accepted first order estimate of ground motions from an explosive event is to refer to the standard data base for explosive eventsmore » (Perrett and Bass, 1975). This reference is a compilation and analysis of ground motion data from numerous nuclear and chemical explosive events from Nevada National Security Site (formerly the Nevada Test Site, or NTS) and other locations. The data were compiled and analyzed for various geologic settings including dry alluvium, which we believe is an accurate descriptor for the SPE Phase II setting. The Perrett and Bass plots of peak velocity and peak yield-scaled displacement, both vs. yield-scaled range, are provided here. Their analysis of both variables resulted in bi-linear fits: a close-in non-linear regime and a more distant linear regime.« less

A Neutral Network based Early Eathquake Warning model in California region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2016-12-01

Early Earthquake Warning systems could reduce loss of lives and other economic impact resulted from natural disaster or man-made calamity. Current systems could be further enhanced by neutral network method. A 3 layer neural network model combined with onsite method was deployed in this paper to improve the recognition time and detection time for large scale earthquakes.The 3 layer neutral network early earthquake warning model adopted the vector feature design for sample events happened within 150 km radius of the epicenters. Dataset used in this paper contained both destructive events and small scale events. All the data was extracted from IRIS database to properly train the model. In the training process, backpropagation algorithm was used to adjust the weight matrices and bias matrices during each iteration. The information in all three channels of the seismometers served as the source in this model. Through designed tests, it was indicated that this model could identify approximately 90 percent of the events' scale correctly. And the early detection could provide informative evidence for public authorities to make further decisions. This indicated that neutral network model could have the potential to strengthen current early warning system, since the onsite method may greatly reduce the responding time and save more lives in such disasters.

New insights into Kilauea's volcano dynamics brought by large-scale relative relocation of microearthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Got, J.-L.; Okubo, P.

2003-01-01

We investigated the microseismicity recorded in an active volcano to infer information concerning the volcano structure and long-term dynamics, by using relative relocations and focal mechanisms of microearthquakes. There were 32,000 earthquakes of the Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes recorded by more than eight stations of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory seismic network between 1988 and 1999. We studied 17,000 of these events and relocated more than 70%, with an accuracy ranging from 10 to 500 m. About 75% of these relocated events are located in the vicinity of subhorizontal decollement planes, at a depth of 8-11 km. However, the striking features revealed by these relocation results are steep southeast dipping fault planes working as reverse faults, clearly located below the decollement plane and which intersect it. If this decollement plane coincides with the pre-Mauna Loa seafloor, as hypothesized by numerous authors, such reverse faults rupture the pre-Mauna Loa oceanic crust. The weight of the volcano and pressure in the magma storage system are possible causes of these ruptures, fully compatible with the local stress tensor computed by Gillard et al. [1996]. Reverse faults are suspected of producing scarps revealed by kilometer-long horizontal slip-perpendicular lineations along the decollement surface and therefore large-scale roughness, asperities, and normal stress variations. These are capable of generating stick-slip, large-magnitude earthquakes, the spatial microseismic pattern observed in the south flank of Kilauea volcano, and Hilina-type instabilities. Rupture intersecting the decollement surface, causing its large-scale roughness, may be an important parameter controlling the growth of Hawaiian volcanoes.

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle.

PubMed

Erbrecht, Tim; Lucht, Wolfgang

2006-07-27

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

PubMed Central

Erbrecht, Tim; Lucht, Wolfgang

2006-01-01

Background The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO2 growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. Results We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO2 flux. Conclusion Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events. PMID:16930463

Declining frequency of summertime local-scale precipitation over eastern China from 1970 to 2010 and its potential link to aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Su, Tianning; Li, Zhanqing; Miao, Yucong; Li, Jing; Liu, Huan; Xu, Hui; Cribb, Maureen; Zhai, Panmao

2017-06-01

Summer precipitation plays critical roles in the energy balance and the availability of fresh water over eastern China. However, little is known regarding the trend in local-scale precipitation (LSP). Here we developed a novel method to determine LSP events in the summer afternoon throughout eastern China from 1970 to 2010 based on hourly gauge measurements. The LSP occurrence hours decrease at an annual rate of 0.25%, which varies considerably by region, ranging from 0.14% over the Yangtze River Delta to 0.56% over the Pearl River Delta. This declining frequency of LSP is generally accompanied by an increase in rain rate of LSP but a decrease in visibility, whose linkage to LSP events was investigated. In particular, more LSP events tended to form when the atmosphere was slightly polluted. Afterward, LSP was suppressed. These findings have important implications for improving our understanding of the climatology of daytime precipitation at local scales.