Overview of Opportunities for Co-Location of Solar Energy Technologies and Vegetation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macknick, Jordan; Beatty, Brenda; Hill, Graham

2013-12-01

Large-scale solar facilities have the potential to contribute significantly to national electricity production. Many solar installations are large-scale or utility-scale, with a capacity over 1 MW and connected directly to the electric grid. Large-scale solar facilities offer an opportunity to achieve economies of scale in solar deployment, yet there have been concerns about the amount of land required for solar projects and the impact of solar projects on local habitat. During the site preparation phase for utility-scale solar facilities, developers often grade land and remove all vegetation to minimize installation and operational costs, prevent plants from shading panels, and minimizemore » potential fire or wildlife risks. However, the common site preparation practice of removing vegetation can be avoided in certain circumstances, and there have been successful examples where solar facilities have been co-located with agricultural operations or have native vegetation growing beneath the panels. In this study we outline some of the impacts that large-scale solar facilities can have on the local environment, provide examples of installations where impacts have been minimized through co-location with vegetation, characterize the types of co-location, and give an overview of the potential benefits from co-location of solar energy projects and vegetation. The varieties of co-location can be replicated or modified for site-specific use at other solar energy installations around the world. We conclude with opportunities to improve upon our understanding of ways to reduce the environmental impacts of large-scale solar installations.« less

Centrifuge impact cratering experiments: Scaling laws for non-porous targets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Robert M.

1987-01-01

This research is a continuation of an ongoing program whose objective is to perform experiments and to develop scaling relationships for large body impacts onto planetary surfaces. The development of the centrifuge technique has been pioneered by the present investigator and is used to provide experimental data for actual target materials of interest. With both powder and gas guns mounted on a rotor arm, it is possible to match various dimensionless similarity parameters, which have been shown to govern the behavior of large scale impacts. Current work is directed toward the determination of scaling estimates for nonporous targets. The results are presented in summary form.

Impact of Design Effects in Large-Scale District and State Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Gary W.

2015-01-01

This article proposes that sampling design effects have potentially huge unrecognized impacts on the results reported by large-scale district and state assessments in the United States. When design effects are unrecognized and unaccounted for they lead to underestimating the sampling error in item and test statistics. Underestimating the sampling…

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Selecting habitat to survive: the impact of road density on survival in a large carnivore.

PubMed

Basille, Mathieu; Van Moorter, Bram; Herfindal, Ivar; Martin, Jodie; Linnell, John D C; Odden, John; Andersen, Reidar; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

2013-01-01

Habitat selection studies generally assume that animals select habitat and food resources at multiple scales to maximise their fitness. However, animals sometimes prefer habitats of apparently low quality, especially when considering the costs associated with spatially heterogeneous human disturbance. We used spatial variation in human disturbance, and its consequences on lynx survival, a direct fitness component, to test the Hierarchical Habitat Selection hypothesis from a population of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in southern Norway. Data from 46 lynx monitored with telemetry indicated that a high proportion of forest strongly reduced the risk of mortality from legal hunting at the home range scale, while increasing road density strongly increased such risk at the finer scale within the home range. We found hierarchical effects of the impact of human disturbance, with a higher road density at a large scale reinforcing its negative impact at a fine scale. Conversely, we demonstrated that lynx shifted their habitat selection to avoid areas with the highest road densities within their home ranges, thus supporting a compensatory mechanism at fine scale enabling lynx to mitigate the impact of large-scale disturbance. Human impact, positively associated with high road accessibility, was thus a stronger driver of lynx space use at a finer scale, with home range characteristics nevertheless constraining habitat selection. Our study demonstrates the truly hierarchical nature of habitat selection, which aims at maximising fitness by selecting against limiting factors at multiple spatial scales, and indicates that scale-specific heterogeneity of the environment is driving individual spatial behaviour, by means of trade-offs across spatial scales.

The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

2016-04-01

There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water in large scale basins in the future. The broader benefits of engineering landscapes to hold water for pollution control, sediment loss and drought minimisation will also be shown.

The Ecological Impacts of Large-Scale Agrofuel Monoculture Production Systems in the Americas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altieri, Miguel A.

2009-01-01

This article examines the expansion of agrofuels in the Americas and the ecological impacts associated with the technologies used in the production of large-scale monocultures of corn and soybeans. In addition to deforestation and displacement of lands devoted to food crops due to expansion of agrofuels, the massive use of transgenic crops and…

Dealing with Item Nonresponse in Large-Scale Cognitive Assessments: The Impact of Missing Data Methods on Estimated Explanatory Relationships

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Köhler, Carmen; Pohl, Steffi; Carstensen, Claus H.

2017-01-01

Competence data from low-stakes educational large-scale assessment studies allow for evaluating relationships between competencies and other variables. The impact of item-level nonresponse has not been investigated with regard to statistics that determine the size of these relationships (e.g., correlations, regression coefficients). Classical…

Vulnerability of China's nearshore ecosystems under intensive mariculture development.

PubMed

Liu, Hui; Su, Jilan

2017-04-01

Rapid economic development and increasing population in China have exerted tremendous pressures on the coastal ecosystems. In addition to land-based pollutants and reclamation, fast expansion of large-scale intensive mariculture activities has also brought about additional effects. So far, the ecological impact of rapid mariculture development and its large-scale operations has not drawn enough attention. In this paper, the rapid development of mariculture in China is reviewed, China's effort in the application of ecological mariculture is examined, and the vulnerability of marine ecosystem to mariculture impact is evaluated through a number of examples. Removal or reduced large and forage fish, due to both habitat loss to reclamation/mariculture and overfishing for food or fishmeal, may have far-reaching effects on the coastal and shelf ecosystems in the long run. Large-scale intensive mariculture operations carry with them undesirable biological and biochemical characteristics, which may have consequences on natural ecosystems beyond normally perceived spatial and temporal boundaries. As our understanding of possible impacts of large-scale intensive mariculture is lagging far behind its development, much research is urgently needed.

The Prominent Role of the Upstream Conditions on the Large-scale Motions of a Turbulent Channel Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, Luciano; Dharmarathne, Suranga; Tutkun, Murat; Hutchins, Nicholas

2017-11-01

In this study we investigate how upstream perturbations in a turbulent channel flow impact the downstream flow evolution, especially the large-scale motions. Direct numerical simulations were carried out at a friction Reynolds number, Reτ = 394 . Spanwise varying inlet blowing perturbations were imposed at 1 πh from the inlet. The flow field is decomposed into its constituent scales using proper orthogonal decomposition. The large-scale motions and the small-scale motions of the flow field are separated at a cut-off mode number, Mc. The cut-off mode number is defined as the number of the mode at which the fraction of energy recovered is 55 % . It is found that Reynolds stresses are increased due to blowing perturbations and large-scale motions are responsible for more than 70 % of the increase of the streamwise component of Reynolds normal stress. Surprisingly, 90 % of Reynolds shear stress is due to the energy augmentation of large-scale motions. It is shown that inlet perturbations impact the downstream flow by means of the LSM.

Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part II: Scale-awareness and application to single-column model experiments

DOE PAGES

Feng, Sha; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Li, Zhijin; ...

2015-01-20

Fine-resolution three-dimensional fields have been produced using the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains region. The GSI system is implemented in a multi-scale data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. From the fine-resolution three-dimensional fields, large-scale forcing is derived explicitly at grid-scale resolution; a subgrid-scale dynamic component is derived separately, representing subgrid-scale horizontal dynamic processes. Analyses show that the subgrid-scale dynamic component is often a major component over the large-scale forcing for grid scalesmore » larger than 200 km. The single-column model (SCM) of the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) is used to examine the impact of the grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components on simulated precipitation and cloud fields associated with a mesoscale convective system. It is found that grid-scale size impacts simulated precipitation, resulting in an overestimation for grid scales of about 200 km but an underestimation for smaller grids. The subgrid-scale dynamic component has an appreciable impact on the simulations, suggesting that grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components should be considered in the interpretation of SCM simulations.« less

The impact of new forms of large-scale general practice provider collaborations on England's NHS: a systematic review.

PubMed

Pettigrew, Luisa M; Kumpunen, Stephanie; Mays, Nicholas; Rosen, Rebecca; Posaner, Rachel

2018-03-01

Over the past decade, collaboration between general practices in England to form new provider networks and large-scale organisations has been driven largely by grassroots action among GPs. However, it is now being increasingly advocated for by national policymakers. Expectations of what scaling up general practice in England will achieve are significant. To review the evidence of the impact of new forms of large-scale general practice provider collaborations in England. Systematic review. Embase, MEDLINE, Health Management Information Consortium, and Social Sciences Citation Index were searched for studies reporting the impact on clinical processes and outcomes, patient experience, workforce satisfaction, or costs of new forms of provider collaborations between general practices in England. A total of 1782 publications were screened. Five studies met the inclusion criteria and four examined the same general practice networks, limiting generalisability. Substantial financial investment was required to establish the networks and the associated interventions that were targeted at four clinical areas. Quality improvements were achieved through standardised processes, incentives at network level, information technology-enabled performance dashboards, and local network management. The fifth study of a large-scale multisite general practice organisation showed that it may be better placed to implement safety and quality processes than conventional practices. However, unintended consequences may arise, such as perceptions of disenfranchisement among staff and reductions in continuity of care. Good-quality evidence of the impacts of scaling up general practice provider organisations in England is scarce. As more general practice collaborations emerge, evaluation of their impacts will be important to understand which work, in which settings, how, and why. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

Output Control Technologies for a Large-scale PV System Considering Impacts on a Power Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwayama, Akira

The mega-solar demonstration project named “Verification of Grid Stabilization with Large-scale PV Power Generation systems” had been completed in March 2011 at Wakkanai, the northernmost city of Japan. The major objectives of this project were to evaluate adverse impacts of large-scale PV power generation systems connected to the power grid and develop output control technologies with integrated battery storage system. This paper describes the outline and results of this project. These results show the effectiveness of battery storage system and also proposed output control methods for a large-scale PV system to ensure stable operation of power grids. NEDO, New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan conducted this project and HEPCO, Hokkaido Electric Power Co., Inc managed the overall project.

Validation of the RAGE Hydrocode for Impacts into Volatile-Rich Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesko, C. S.; Asphaug, E.; Coker, R. F.; Wohletz, K. H.; Korycansky, D. G.; Gisler, G. R.

2007-12-01

In preparation for a detailed study of large-scale impacts into the Martian surface, we have validated the RAGE hydrocode (Gittings et al., in press, CSD) against a suite of experiments and statistical models. We present comparisons of hydrocode models to centimeter-scale gas gun impacts (Nakazawa et al. 2002), an underground nuclear test (Perret, 1971), and crater scaling laws (Holsapple 1993, O'Keefe and Ahrens 1993). We have also conducted model convergence and uncertainty analyses which will be presented. Results to date are encouraging for our current model goals, and indicate areas where the hydrocode may be extended in the future. This validation work is focused on questions related to the specific problem of large impacts into volatile-rich targets. The overall goal of this effort is to be able to realistically model large-scale Noachian, and possibly post- Noachian, impacts on Mars not so much to model the crater morphology as to understand the evolution of target volatiles in the post-impact regime, to explore how large craters might set the stage for post-impact hydro- geologic evolution both locally (in the crater subsurface) and globally, due to the redistribution of volatiles from the surface and subsurface into the atmosphere. This work is performed under the auspices of IGPP and the DOE at LANL under contracts W-7405-ENG-36 and DE-AC52-06NA25396. Effort by DK and EA is sponsored by NASA's Mars Fundamental Research Program.

Framing Innovation: The Impact of the Superintendent's Technology Infrastructure Decisions on the Acceptance of Large-Scale Technology Initiatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnold, Erik P.

2014-01-01

A multiple-case qualitative study of five school districts that had implemented various large-scale technology initiatives was conducted to describe what superintendents do to gain acceptance of those initiatives. The large-scale technology initiatives in the five participating districts included 1:1 District-Provided Device laptop and tablet…

Simulations of hypervelocity impacts for asteroid deflection studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heberling, T.; Ferguson, J. M.; Gisler, G. R.; Plesko, C. S.; Weaver, R.

2016-12-01

The possibility of kinetic-impact deflection of threatening near-earth asteroids will be tested for the first time in the proposed AIDA (Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment) mission, involving two independent spacecraft, NASAs DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) and ESAs AIM (Asteroid Impact Mission). The impact of the DART spacecraft onto the secondary of the binary asteroid 65803 Didymos, at a speed of 5 to 7 km/s, is expected to alter the mutual orbit by an observable amount. The velocity imparted to the secondary depends on the geometry and dynamics of the impact, and especially on the momentum enhancement factor, conventionally called beta. We use the Los Alamos hydrocodes Rage and Pagosa to estimate beta in laboratory-scale benchmark experiments and in the large-scale asteroid deflection test. Simulations are performed in two- and three-dimensions, using a variety of equations of state and strength models for both the lab-scale and large-scale cases. This work is being performed as part of a systematic benchmarking study for the AIDA mission that includes other hydrocodes.

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

2014-01-01

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

Investigating the Impact of Surface Heterogeneity on the Convective Boundary Layer Over Urban Areas Through Coupled Large-Eddy Simulation and Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dominguez, Anthony; Kleissl, Jan P.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.

2011-01-01

Large-eddy Simulation (LES) was used to study convective boundary layer (CBL) flow through suburban regions with both large and small scale heterogeneities in surface temperature. Constant remotely sensed surface temperatures were applied at the surface boundary at resolutions of 10 m, 90 m, 200 m, and 1 km. Increasing the surface resolution from 1 km to 200 m had the most significant impact on the mean and turbulent flow characteristics as the larger scale heterogeneities became resolved. While previous studies concluded that scales of heterogeneity much smaller than the CBL inversion height have little impact on the CBL characteristics, we found that further increasing the surface resolution (resolving smaller scale heterogeneities) results in an increase in mean surface heat flux, thermal blending height, and potential temperature profile. The results of this study will help to better inform sub-grid parameterization for meso-scale meteorological models. The simulation tool developed through this study (combining LES and high resolution remotely sensed surface conditions) is a significant step towards future studies on the micro-scale meteorology in urban areas.

A Large-Scale Inquiry-Based Astronomy Intervention Project: Impact on Students' Content Knowledge Performance and Views of Their High School Science Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzgerald, Michael; McKinnon, David H.; Danaia, Lena; Deehan, James

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present the results from a study of the impact on students involved in a large-scale inquiry-based astronomical high school education intervention in Australia. Students in this intervention were led through an educational design allowing them to undertake an investigative approach to understanding the lifecycle of stars more…

Modelling potential changes in marine biogeochemistry due to large-scale offshore tidal energy extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, Johan

2015-04-01

Tidal power generation through submerged turbine-type devices is in an advanced stage of testing, and large-scale applications are being planned in areas with high tidal current speeds. The potential impact of such large-scale applications on the hydrography can be investigated using hydrodynamical models. In addition, aspects of the potential impact on the marine ecosystem can be studied using biogeochemical models. In this study, the coupled hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM is used in a shelf-wide application to investigate the potential impact of large-scale tidal power generation in the Pentland Firth. A scenario representing the currently licensed power extraction suggested i) an average reduction in M2 tidal current velocities of several cm/s within the Pentland Firth, ii) changes in the residual circulation of several mm/s in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth, iii) an increase in M2 tidal amplitude of up to 1 cm to the west of the Pentland Firth, and iv) a reduction of several mm in M2 tidal amplitude along the east coast of the UK. A second scenario representing 10 times the currently licensed power extraction resulted in changes that were approximately 10 times as large. Simulations including the biogeochemistry model for these scenarios are currently in preparation, and first results will be presented at the the conference, aiming at impacts on primary production and benthic production.

Large ejecta fragments from asteroids. [Abstract only

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asphaug, E.

1994-01-01

The asteroid 4 Vesta, with its unique basaltic crust, remains a key mystery of planetary evolution. A localized olivine feature suggests excavation of subcrustal material in a crater or impact basin comparable in size to the planetary radius (R(sub vesta) is approximately = 280 km). Furthermore, a 'clan' of small asteroids associated with Vesta (by spectral and orbital similarities) may be ejecta from this impact 151 and direct parents of the basaltic achondrites. To escape, these smaller (about 4-7 km) asteroids had to be ejected at speeds greater than the escape velocity, v(sub esc) is approximately = 350 m/s. This evidence that large fragments were ejected at high speed from Vesta has not been reconciled with the present understanding of impact physics. Analytical spallation models predict that an impactor capable of ejecting these 'chips off Vesta' would be almost the size of Vesta! Such an impact would lead to the catastrophic disruption of both bodies. A simpler analysis is outlined, based on comparison with cratering on Mars, and it is shown that Vesta could survive an impact capable of ejecting kilometer-scale fragments at sufficient speed. To what extent does Vesta survive the formation of such a large crater? This is best addressed using a hydrocode such as SALE 2D with centroidal gravity to predict velocities subsequent to impact. The fragmentation outcome and velocity subsequent to the impact described to demonstrate that Vesta survives without large-scale disassembly or overturning of the crust. Vesta and its clan represent a valuable dataset for testing fragmentation hydrocodes such as SALE 2D and SPH 3D at planetary scales. Resolution required to directly model spallation 'chips' on a body 100 times as large is now marginally possible on modern workstations. These boundaries are important in near-surface ejection processes and in large-scale disruption leading to asteroid families and stripped cores.

Seismic safety in conducting large-scale blasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashukov, I. V.; Chaplygin, V. V.; Domanov, V. P.; Semin, A. A.; Klimkin, M. A.

2017-09-01

In mining enterprises to prepare hard rocks for excavation a drilling and blasting method is used. With the approach of mining operations to settlements the negative effect of large-scale blasts increases. To assess the level of seismic impact of large-scale blasts the scientific staff of Siberian State Industrial University carried out expertise for coal mines and iron ore enterprises. Determination of the magnitude of surface seismic vibrations caused by mass explosions was performed using seismic receivers, an analog-digital converter with recording on a laptop. The registration results of surface seismic vibrations during production of more than 280 large-scale blasts at 17 mining enterprises in 22 settlements are presented. The maximum velocity values of the Earth’s surface vibrations are determined. The safety evaluation of seismic effect was carried out according to the permissible value of vibration velocity. For cases with exceedance of permissible values recommendations were developed to reduce the level of seismic impact.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Universal scaling and nonlinearity of aggregate price impact in financial markets.

PubMed

Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2018-01-01

How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different time scales. Here we reveal that price impact has a universal nonlinear shape for trades aggregated on any intraday scale. Its shape varies little across instruments, but drastically different master curves are obtained for order-volume and -sign impact. The scaling is largely determined by the relevant Hurst exponents. We further show that extreme order-flow imbalance is not associated with large returns. To the contrary, it is observed when the price is pinned to a particular level. Prices move only when there is sufficient balance in the local order flow. In fact, the probability that a trade changes the midprice falls to zero with increasing (absolute) order-sign bias along an arc-shaped curve for all intraday scales. Our findings challenge the widespread assumption of linear aggregate impact. They imply that market dynamics on all intraday time scales are shaped by correlations and bilateral adaptation in the flows of liquidity provision and taking.

Universal scaling and nonlinearity of aggregate price impact in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2018-01-01

How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different time scales. Here we reveal that price impact has a universal nonlinear shape for trades aggregated on any intraday scale. Its shape varies little across instruments, but drastically different master curves are obtained for order-volume and -sign impact. The scaling is largely determined by the relevant Hurst exponents. We further show that extreme order-flow imbalance is not associated with large returns. To the contrary, it is observed when the price is pinned to a particular level. Prices move only when there is sufficient balance in the local order flow. In fact, the probability that a trade changes the midprice falls to zero with increasing (absolute) order-sign bias along an arc-shaped curve for all intraday scales. Our findings challenge the widespread assumption of linear aggregate impact. They imply that market dynamics on all intraday time scales are shaped by correlations and bilateral adaptation in the flows of liquidity provision and taking.

Influence of land use on water quality in a tropical landscape: a multi-scale analysis

PubMed Central

Yackulic, Charles B.; Lim, Yili; Arce-Nazario, Javier A.

2015-01-01

There is a pressing need to understand the consequences of human activities, such as land transformations, on watershed ecosystem services. This is a challenging task because different indicators of water quality and yield are expected to vary in their responsiveness to large versus local-scale heterogeneity in land use and land cover (LUC). Here we rely on water quality data collected between 1977 and 2000 from dozens of gauge stations in Puerto Rico together with precipitation data and land cover maps to (1) quantify impacts of spatial heterogeneity in LUC on several water quality indicators; (2) determine the spatial scale at which this heterogeneity influences water quality; and (3) examine how antecedent precipitation modulates these impacts. Our models explained 30–58% of observed variance in water quality metrics. Temporal variation in antecedent precipitation and changes in LUC between measurements periods rather than spatial variation in LUC accounted for the majority of variation in water quality. Urbanization and pasture development generally degraded water quality while agriculture and secondary forest re-growth had mixed impacts. The spatial scale over which LUC influenced water quality differed across indicators. Turbidity and dissolved oxygen (DO) responded to LUC in large-scale watersheds, in-stream nitrogen concentrations to LUC in riparian buffers of large watersheds, and fecal matter content and in-stream phosphorus concentration to LUC at the sub-watershed scale. Stream discharge modulated impacts of LUC on water quality for most of the metrics. Our findings highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial scales for understanding the impacts of human activities on watershed ecosystem services. PMID:26146455

Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

Ecological impacts of large-scale disposal of mining waste in the deep sea

PubMed Central

Hughes, David J.; Shimmield, Tracy M.; Black, Kenneth D.; Howe, John A.

2015-01-01

Deep-Sea Tailings Placement (DSTP) from terrestrial mines is one of several large-scale industrial activities now taking place in the deep sea. The scale and persistence of its impacts on seabed biota are unknown. We sampled around the Lihir and Misima island mines in Papua New Guinea to measure the impacts of ongoing DSTP and assess the state of benthic infaunal communities after its conclusion. At Lihir, where DSTP has operated continuously since 1996, abundance of sediment infauna was substantially reduced across the sampled depth range (800–2020 m), accompanied by changes in higher-taxon community structure, in comparison with unimpacted reference stations. At Misima, where DSTP took place for 15 years, ending in 2004, effects on community composition persisted 3.5 years after its conclusion. Active tailings deposition has severe impacts on deep-sea infaunal communities and these impacts are detectable at a coarse level of taxonomic resolution. PMID:25939397

Ecological impacts of large-scale disposal of mining waste in the deep sea.

PubMed

Hughes, David J; Shimmield, Tracy M; Black, Kenneth D; Howe, John A

2015-05-05

Deep-Sea Tailings Placement (DSTP) from terrestrial mines is one of several large-scale industrial activities now taking place in the deep sea. The scale and persistence of its impacts on seabed biota are unknown. We sampled around the Lihir and Misima island mines in Papua New Guinea to measure the impacts of ongoing DSTP and assess the state of benthic infaunal communities after its conclusion. At Lihir, where DSTP has operated continuously since 1996, abundance of sediment infauna was substantially reduced across the sampled depth range (800-2020 m), accompanied by changes in higher-taxon community structure, in comparison with unimpacted reference stations. At Misima, where DSTP took place for 15 years, ending in 2004, effects on community composition persisted 3.5 years after its conclusion. Active tailings deposition has severe impacts on deep-sea infaunal communities and these impacts are detectable at a coarse level of taxonomic resolution.

How do large-scale agricultural investments affect land use and the environment on the western slopes of Mount Kenya? Empirical evidence based on small-scale farmers' perceptions and remote sensing.

PubMed

Zaehringer, Julie G; Wambugu, Grace; Kiteme, Boniface; Eckert, Sandra

2018-05-01

Africa has been heavily targeted by large-scale agricultural investments (LAIs) throughout the last decade, with scarcely known impacts on local social-ecological systems. In Kenya, a large number of LAIs were made in the region northwest of Mount Kenya. These large-scale farms produce vegetables and flowers mainly for European markets. However, land use in the region remains dominated by small-scale crop and livestock farms with less than 1 ha of land each, who produce both for their own subsistence and for the local markets. We interviewed 100 small-scale farmers living near five different LAIs to elicit their perceptions of the impacts that these LAIs have on their land use and the overall environment. Furthermore, we analyzed remotely sensed land cover and land use data to assess land use change in the vicinity of the five LAIs. While land use change did not follow a clear trend, a number of small-scale farmers did adapt their crop management to environmental changes such as a reduced river water flows and increased pests, which they attributed to the presence of LAIs. Despite the high number of open conflicts between small-scale land users and LAIs around the issue of river water abstraction, the main environmental impact, felt by almost half of the interviewed land users, was air pollution with agrochemicals sprayed on the LAIs' land. Even though only a low percentage of local land users and their household members were directly involved with LAIs, a large majority of respondents favored the presence of LAIs nearby, as they are believed to contribute to the region's overall economic development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

Estimating the Effectiveness of Special Education Using Large-Scale Assessment Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ewing, Katherine Anne

2009-01-01

The inclusion of students with disabilities in large scale assessment and accountability programs has provided new opportunities to examine the impact of special education services on student achievement. Hanushek, Kain, and Rivkin (1998, 2002) evaluated the effectiveness of special education programs by examining students' gains on a large-scale…

Environmental impact assessment and environmental audit in large-scale public infrastructure construction: the case of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

PubMed

He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yonglong

2009-09-01

Large-scale public infrastructure projects have featured in China's modernization course since the early 1980s. During the early stages of China's rapid economic development, public attention focused on the economic and social impact of high-profile construction projects. In recent years, however, we have seen a shift in public concern toward the environmental and ecological effects of such projects, and today governments are required to provide valid environmental impact assessments prior to allowing large-scale construction. The official requirement for the monitoring of environmental conditions has led to an increased number of debates in recent years regarding the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and Governmental Environmental Audits (GEAs) as environmental safeguards in instances of large-scale construction. Although EIA and GEA are conducted by different institutions and have different goals and enforcement potential, these two practices can be closely related in terms of methodology. This article cites the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway as an instance in which EIA and GEA offer complementary approaches to environmental impact management. This study concludes that the GEA approach can serve as an effective follow-up to the EIA and establishes that the EIA lays a base for conducting future GEAs. The relationship that emerges through a study of the Railway's construction calls for more deliberate institutional arrangements and cooperation if the two practices are to be used in concert to optimal effect.

Experimental Simulations of Large-Scale Collisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housen, Kevin R.

2002-01-01

This report summarizes research on the effects of target porosity on the mechanics of impact cratering. Impact experiments conducted on a centrifuge provide direct simulations of large-scale cratering on porous asteroids. The experiments show that large craters in porous materials form mostly by compaction, with essentially no deposition of material into the ejecta blanket that is a signature of cratering in less-porous materials. The ratio of ejecta mass to crater mass is shown to decrease with increasing crater size or target porosity. These results are consistent with the observation that large closely-packed craters on asteroid Mathilde appear to have formed without degradation to earlier craters.

SPH calculations of Mars-scale collisions: The role of the equation of state, material rheologies, and numerical effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emsenhuber, Alexandre; Jutzi, Martin; Benz, Willy

2018-02-01

We model large-scale ( ≈ 2000 km) impacts on a Mars-like planet using a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics code. The effects of material strength and of using different Equations of State on the post-impact material and temperature distributions are investigated. The properties of the ejected material in terms of escaping and disc mass are analysed as well. We also study potential numerical effects in the context of density discontinuities and rigid body rotation. We find that in the large-scale collision regime considered here (with impact velocities of 4 km/s), the effect of material strength is substantial for the post-impact distribution of the temperature and the impactor material, while the influence of the Equation of State is more subtle and present only at very high temperatures.

Impact of entrainment on cloud droplet spectra: theory, observations, and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabowski, W.

2016-12-01

Understanding the impact of entrainment and mixing on microphysical properties of warm boundary layer clouds is an important aspect of the representation of such clouds in large-scale models of weather and climate. Entrainment leads to a reduction of the liquid water content in agreement with the fundamental thermodynamics, but its impact on the droplet spectrum is difficult to quantify in observations and modeling. For in-situ (e.g., aircraft) observations, it is impossible to follow air parcels and observe processes that lead to changes of the droplet spectrum in different regions of a cloud. For similar reasons traditional modeling methodologies (e.g., the Eulerian large eddy simulation) are not useful either. Moreover, both observations and modeling can resolve only relatively narrow range of spatial scales. Theory, typically focusing on differences between idealized concepts of homogeneous and inhomogeneous mixing, is also of a limited use for the multiscale turbulent mixing between a cloud and its environment. This presentation will illustrate the above points and argue that the Lagrangian large-eddy simulation with appropriate subgrid-scale scheme may provide key insights and eventually lead to novel parameterizations for large-scale models.

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydro climatic conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological paradigm for many regions. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently impacted North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia, and Australia result...

Origin of the Two Scales of Wind Ripples on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapotre, Mathieu G. A.; Ewing, Ryan C.; Lamb, Michael P.; Fischer, Woodward W.; Grotzinger, John P.; Rubin, David M.; Lewis, Kevin W.; Day, Mackenzie; Gupta, Sanjeev; Banham, Steeve G.;

Origin of the two scales of wind ripples on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapotre, M. G. A.; Ewing, R. C.; Lamb, M. P.; Fischer, W. W.; Grotzinger, J. P.; Rubin, D. M.; Lewis, K. W.; Ballard, M.; Day, M. D.; Gupta, S.; Banham, S.; Bridges, N.; Des Marais, D. J.; Fraeman, A. A.; Grant, J. A., III; Ming, D. W.; Mischna, M.; Rice, M. S.; Sumner, D. Y.; Vasavada, A. R.; Yingst, R. A.

2016-12-01

Earth's sandy deserts host two main types of bedforms - decimeter-scale ripples and larger dunes. Years of orbital observations on Mars also confirmed the existence of two modes of active eolian bedforms - meter-scale ripples, and dunes. By analogy to terrestrial ripples, which are thought to form from a grain mechanism, it was hypothesized that large martian ripples also formed from grain impacts, but spaced further apart due to elongated saltation trajectories from the lower martian gravity and different atmospheric properties. However, the Curiosity rover recently documented the coexistence of three scales of bedforms in Gale crater. Because a grain impact mechanism cannot readily explain two distinct and coeval ripple modes in similar sand sizes, a new mechanism seems to be required to explain one of the scales of ripples. Small ripples are most similar to Earth's impact ripples, with straight crests and subdued profiles. In contrast, large martian ripples are sinuous and asymmetric, with lee slopes dominated by grain flows and grainfall deposits. Thus, large martian ripples resemble current ripples formed underwater on Earth, suggesting that they may form from a fluid-drag mechanism. To test this hypothesis, we develop a scaling relation to predict the spacing of fluid-drag ripples from an extensive flume data compilation. The size of large martian ripples is predicted by our scaling relation when adjusted for martian atmospheric properties. Specifically, we propose that the wavelength of martian wind-drag ripples arises from the high kinematic viscosity of the low-density atmosphere. Because fluid density controls drag-ripple size, our scaling relation can help constrain paleoatmospheric density from wind-drag ripple stratification.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less

Impact of US and Canadian precursor regulation on methamphetamine purity in the United States.

PubMed

Cunningham, James K; Liu, Lon-Mu; Callaghan, Russell

2009-03-01

Reducing drug purity is a major, but largely unstudied, goal of drug suppression. This study examines whether US methamphetamine purity was impacted by the suppression policy of US and Canadian precursor chemical regulation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-intervention time-series analysis. Continental United States and Hawaii (1985-May 2005). Interventions US federal regulations targeting precursors, ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, in forms used by large-scale producers were implemented in November 1989, August 1995 and October 1997. US regulations targeting precursors in forms used by small-scale producers (e.g. over-the-counter medications) were implemented in October 1996 and October 2001. Canada implemented federal precursor regulations in January 2003 and July 2003 and an essential chemical (e.g. acetone) regulation in January 2004. Monthly median methamphetamine purity series. US regulations targeting large-scale producers were associated with purity declines of 16-67 points; those targeting small-scale producers had little or no impact. Canada's precursor regulations were associated with purity increases of 13-15 points, while its essential chemical regulation was associated with a 13-point decrease. Hawaii's purity was consistently high, and appeared to vary little with the 1990s/2000s regulations. US precursor regulations targeting large-scale producers were associated with substantial decreases in continental US methamphetamine purity, while regulations targeting over-the-counter medications had little or no impact. Canada's essential chemical regulation was also associated with a decrease in continental US purity. However, Canada's precursor regulations were associated with purity increases: these regulations may have impacted primarily producers of lower-quality methamphetamine, leaving higher-purity methamphetamine on the market by default. Hawaii's well-known preference for 'ice' (high-purity methamphetamine) may have helped to constrain purity there to a high, attenuated range, possibly limiting its sensitivity to precursor regulation.

Size-Related Changes in Foot Impact Mechanics in Hoofed Mammals

PubMed Central

Warner, Sharon Elaine; Pickering, Phillip; Panagiotopoulou, Olga; Pfau, Thilo; Ren, Lei; Hutchinson, John Richard

2013-01-01

Foot-ground impact is mechanically challenging for all animals, but how do large animals mitigate increased mass during foot impact? We hypothesized that impact force amplitude scales according to isometry in animals of increasing size through allometric scaling of related impact parameters. To test this, we measured limb kinetics and kinematics in 11 species of hoofed mammals ranging from 18–3157 kg body mass. We found impact force amplitude to be maintained proportional to size in hoofed mammals, but that other features of foot impact exhibit differential scaling patterns depending on the limb; forelimb parameters typically exhibit higher intercepts with lower scaling exponents than hind limb parameters. Our explorations of the size-related consequences of foot impact advance understanding of how body size influences limb morphology and function, foot design and locomotor behaviour. PMID:23382967

Basin-Scale Hydrologic Impacts of CO2 Storage: Regulatory and Capacity Implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birkholzer, J.T.; Zhou, Q.

Industrial-scale injection of CO{sub 2} into saline sedimentary basins will cause large-scale fluid pressurization and migration of native brines, which may affect valuable groundwater resources overlying the deep sequestration reservoirs. In this paper, we discuss how such basin-scale hydrologic impacts can (1) affect regulation of CO{sub 2} storage projects and (2) may reduce current storage capacity estimates. Our assessment arises from a hypothetical future carbon sequestration scenario in the Illinois Basin, which involves twenty individual CO{sub 2} storage projects in a core injection area suitable for long-term storage. Each project is assumed to inject five million tonnes of CO{sub 2}more » per year for 50 years. A regional-scale three-dimensional simulation model was developed for the Illinois Basin that captures both the local-scale CO{sub 2}-brine flow processes and the large-scale groundwater flow patterns in response to CO{sub 2} storage. The far-field pressure buildup predicted for this selected sequestration scenario suggests that (1) the area that needs to be characterized in a permitting process may comprise a very large region within the basin if reservoir pressurization is considered, and (2) permits cannot be granted on a single-site basis alone because the near- and far-field hydrologic response may be affected by interference between individual sites. Our results also support recent studies in that environmental concerns related to near-field and far-field pressure buildup may be a limiting factor on CO{sub 2} storage capacity. In other words, estimates of storage capacity, if solely based on the effective pore volume available for safe trapping of CO{sub 2}, may have to be revised based on assessments of pressure perturbations and their potential impact on caprock integrity and groundwater resources, respectively. We finally discuss some of the challenges in making reliable predictions of large-scale hydrologic impacts related to CO{sub 2} sequestration projects.« less

Impacts of Large-Scale Circulation on Convection: A 2-D Cloud Resolving Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, X; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

Studies of impacts of large-scale circulation on convection, and the roles of convection in heat and water balances over tropical region are fundamentally important for understanding global climate changes. Heat and water budgets over warm pool (SST=29.5 C) and cold pool (SST=26 C) were analyzed based on simulations of the two-dimensional cloud resolving model. Here the sensitivity of heat and water budgets to different sizes of warm and cold pools is examined.

Integrating Green and Blue Water Management Tools for Land and Water Resources Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewitt, G. P. W.

2009-04-01

The role of land use and land use change on the hydrological cycle is well known. However, the impacts of large scale land use change are poorly considered in water resources planning, unless they require direct abstraction of water resources and associated development of infrastructure e.g. Irrigation Schemes. However, large scale deforestation for the supply of raw materials, expansion of the areas of plantation forestry, increasing areas under food production and major plans for cultivation of biofuels in many developing countries are likely to result in extensive land use change. Given the spatial extent and temporal longevity of these proposed developments, major impacts on water resources are inevitable. It is imperative that managers and planners consider the consequences for downstream ecosystems and users in such developments. However, many popular tools, such as the vitual water approach, provide only coarse scale "order of magnitude" type estimates with poor consideration of, and limited usefulness, for land use planning. In this paper, a framework for the consideration of the impacts of large scale land use change on water resources at a range of temporal and spatial scales is presented. Drawing on experiences from South Africa, where the establishment of exotic commercial forest plantations is only permitted once a water use license has been granted, the framework adopts the "green water concept" for the identification of potential high impact areas of land use change and provides for integration with traditional "blue water" water resources planning tools for more detailed planning. Appropriate tools, ranging from simple spreadsheet solutions to more sophisticated remote sensing and hydrological models are described, and the application of the framework for consideration of water resources impacts associated with the establishment of large scale tectona grandis, sugar cane and jatropha curcas plantations is illustrated through examples in Mozambique and South Africa. Keywords: Land use change, water resources, green water, blue water, biofuels, developing countries

Impact of oceanic-scale interactions on the seasonal modulation of ocean dynamics by the atmosphere.

PubMed

Sasaki, Hideharu; Klein, Patrice; Qiu, Bo; Sasai, Yoshikazu

2014-12-15

Ocean eddies (with a size of 100-300 km), ubiquitous in satellite observations, are known to represent about 80% of the total ocean kinetic energy. Recent studies have pointed out the unexpected role of smaller oceanic structures (with 1-50 km scales) in generating and sustaining these eddies. The interpretation proposed so far invokes the internal instability resulting from the large-scale interaction between upper and interior oceanic layers. Here we show, using a new high-resolution simulation of the realistic North Pacific Ocean, that ocean eddies are instead sustained by a different process that involves small-scale mixed-layer instabilities set up by large-scale atmospheric forcing in winter. This leads to a seasonal evolution of the eddy kinetic energy in a very large part of this ocean, with an amplitude varying by a factor almost equal to 2. Perspectives in terms of the impacts on climate dynamics and future satellite observational systems are briefly discussed.

Impact of oceanic-scale interactions on the seasonal modulation of ocean dynamics by the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Sasaki, Hideharu; Klein, Patrice; Qiu, Bo; Sasai, Yoshikazu

2014-01-01

Ocean eddies (with a size of 100–300 km), ubiquitous in satellite observations, are known to represent about 80% of the total ocean kinetic energy. Recent studies have pointed out the unexpected role of smaller oceanic structures (with 1–50 km scales) in generating and sustaining these eddies. The interpretation proposed so far invokes the internal instability resulting from the large-scale interaction between upper and interior oceanic layers. Here we show, using a new high-resolution simulation of the realistic North Pacific Ocean, that ocean eddies are instead sustained by a different process that involves small-scale mixed-layer instabilities set up by large-scale atmospheric forcing in winter. This leads to a seasonal evolution of the eddy kinetic energy in a very large part of this ocean, with an amplitude varying by a factor almost equal to 2. Perspectives in terms of the impacts on climate dynamics and future satellite observational systems are briefly discussed. PMID:25501039

Economic Impact of Large-Scale Deployment of Offshore Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology in Oregon Coastal Counties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jimenez, T.; Tegen, S.; Beiter, P.

To begin understanding the potential economic impacts of large-scale WEC technology, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct an economic impact analysis of largescale WEC deployment for Oregon coastal counties. This report follows a previously published report by BOEM and NREL on the jobs and economic impacts of WEC technology for the entire state (Jimenez and Tegen 2015). As in Jimenez and Tegen (2015), this analysis examined two deployment scenarios in the 2026-2045 timeframe: the first scenario assumed 13,000 megawatts (MW) of WEC technology deployed during the analysis period, and themore » second assumed 18,000 MW of WEC technology deployed by 2045. Both scenarios require major technology and cost improvements in the WEC devices. The study is on very large-scale deployment so readers can examine and discuss the potential of a successful and very large WEC industry. The 13,000-MW is used as the basis for the county analysis as it is the smaller of the two scenarios. Sensitivity studies examined the effects of a robust in-state WEC supply chain. The region of analysis is comprised of the seven coastal counties in Oregon—Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, Lincoln, and Tillamook—so estimates of jobs and other economic impacts are specific to this coastal county area.« less

Visual attention mitigates information loss in small- and large-scale neural codes

PubMed Central

Sprague, Thomas C; Saproo, Sameer; Serences, John T

2015-01-01

Summary The visual system transforms complex inputs into robust and parsimonious neural codes that efficiently guide behavior. Because neural communication is stochastic, the amount of encoded visual information necessarily decreases with each synapse. This constraint requires processing sensory signals in a manner that protects information about relevant stimuli from degradation. Such selective processing – or selective attention – is implemented via several mechanisms, including neural gain and changes in tuning properties. However, examining each of these effects in isolation obscures their joint impact on the fidelity of stimulus feature representations by large-scale population codes. Instead, large-scale activity patterns can be used to reconstruct representations of relevant and irrelevant stimuli, providing a holistic understanding about how neuron-level modulations collectively impact stimulus encoding. PMID:25769502

Transitioning to a new nursing home: one organization's experience.

PubMed

O'Brien, Kelli; Welsh, Darlene; Lundrigan, Elaine; Doyle, Anne

2013-01-01

Restructuring of long-term care in Western Health, a regional health authority within Newfoundland and Labrador, created a unique opportunity to study the widespread impacts of the transition. Staff and long-term-care residents were relocated from a variety of settings to a newly constructed facility. A plan was developed to assess the impact of relocation on staff, residents, and families. Indicators included fall rates, medication errors, complaints, media database, sick leave, overtime, injuries, and staff and family satisfaction. This article reports on the findings and lessons learned from an organizational perspective with such a large-scale transition. Some of the key findings included the necessity of premove and postmove strategies to minimize negative impacts, ongoing communication and involvement in decision making during transitions, tracking of key indicators, recognition from management regarding increased workload and stress experienced by staff, engagement of residents and families throughout the transition, and assessing the timing of large-scale relocations. These findings would be of interest to health care managers and leadership team in organizations planning large-scale changes.

The economics and environmental impacts of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decarolis, Joseph Frank

Serious climate change mitigation aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require a radical shift to a decarbonized energy supply. The electric power sector will be a primary target for deep reductions in CO2 emissions because electric power plants are among the largest and most manageable point sources of emissions. With respect to new capacity, wind power is currently one of the most inexpensive ways to produce electricity without CO2 emissions and it may have a significant role to play in a carbon constrained world. Yet most research in the wind industry remains focused on near term issues, while energy system models that focus on century-long time horizons undervalue wind by imposing exogenous limits on growth. This thesis fills a critical gap in the literature by taking a closer look at the cost and environmental impacts of large-scale wind. Estimates of the average cost of wind generation---now roughly 4¢/kWh---do not address the cons arising from the spatial distribution and intermittency of wind. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for assessing the intermittency cost of wind. In addition, an economic characterization of a wind system is provided in which long-distance electricity transmission, storage, and gas turbines are used to supplement variable wind power output to meet a time-varying load. With somewhat optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind turbines, the use of wind to serve 50% of demand adds ˜1--2¢/kWh to the cost of electricity, a cost comparable to that of other large-scale low carbon technologies. This thesis also explores the environmental impacts posed by large-scale wind. Though avian mortality and noise caused controversy in the early years of wind development, improved technology and exhaustive siting assessments have minimized their impact. The aesthetic valuation of wind farms can be improved significantly with better design, siting, construction, and maintenance procedures, but opposition may increase as wind is developed on a large scale. Finally, this thesis summarizes collaborative work utilizing general circulation models to determine whether wind turbines have an impact of climate. The results suggest that the climatic impact is non-negligible at continental scales, but further research is warranted.

Food waste impact on municipal solid waste angle of internal friction.

PubMed

Cho, Young Min; Ko, Jae Hac; Chi, Liqun; Townsend, Timothy G

2011-01-01

The impact of food waste content on the municipal solid waste (MSW) friction angle was studied. Using reconstituted fresh MSW specimens with different food waste content (0%, 40%, 58%, and 80%), 48 small-scale (100-mm-diameter) direct shear tests and 12 large-scale (430 mm × 430 mm) direct shear tests were performed. A stress-controlled large-scale direct shear test device allowing approximately 170-mm sample horizontal displacement was designed and used. At both testing scales, the mobilized internal friction angle of MSW decreased considerably as food waste content increased. As food waste content increased from 0% to 40% and from 40% to 80%, the mobilized internal friction angles (estimated using the mobilized peak (ultimate) shear strengths of the small-scale direct shear tests) decreased from 39° to 31° and from 31° to 7°, respectively, while those of large-scale tests decreased from 36° to 26° and from 26° to 15°, respectively. Most friction angle measurements produced in this study fell within the range of those previously reported for MSW. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of land-surface wetness heterogeneity on mesoscale heat fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Fei; Avissar, Roni

1994-01-01

Vertical heat fluxes associated with mesoscale circulations generated by land-surface wetness discontinuities are often stronger than turbulent fluxes, especially in the upper part of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer. As a result, they contribute significantly to the subgrid-scale fluxes in large-scale atmospheric models. Yet they are not considered in these models. To provide some insights into the possible parameterization of these fluxes in large-scale models, a state-of-the-art mesoscale numerical model was used to investigate the relationships between mesoscale heat fluxes and atmospheric and land-surface characteristics that play a key role in the generation of mesoscale circulations. The distribution of land-surface wetness, the wavenumber and the wavelength of the land-surface discontinuities, and the large-scale wind speed have a significant impact on the mesoscale heat fluxes. Empirical functions were derived to characterize the relationships between mesoscale heat fluxes and the spatial distribution of land-surface wetness. The strongest mesoscale heat fluxes were obtained for a wavelength of forcing corresponding approximately to the local Rossby deformation radius. The mesoscale heat fluxes are weakened by large-scale background winds but remain significant even with moderate winds.

Large scale anomalies in the microwave background: causation and correlation.

PubMed

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard

2013-12-27

Most treatments of large scale anomalies in the microwave sky are a posteriori, with unquantified look-elsewhere effects. We contrast these with physical models of specific inhomogeneities in the early Universe which can generate these apparent anomalies. Physical models predict correlations between candidate anomalies and the corresponding signals in polarization and large scale structure, reducing the impact of cosmic variance. We compute the apparent spatial curvature associated with large-scale inhomogeneities and show that it is typically small, allowing for a self-consistent analysis. As an illustrative example we show that a single large plane wave inhomogeneity can contribute to low-l mode alignment and odd-even asymmetry in the power spectra and the best-fit model accounts for a significant part of the claimed odd-even asymmetry. We argue that this approach can be generalized to provide a more quantitative assessment of potential large scale anomalies in the Universe.

The Matching Criterion Purification for Differential Item Functioning Analyses in a Large-Scale Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, HyeSun; Geisinger, Kurt F.

2016-01-01

The current study investigated the impact of matching criterion purification on the accuracy of differential item functioning (DIF) detection in large-scale assessments. The three matching approaches for DIF analyses (block-level matching, pooled booklet matching, and equated pooled booklet matching) were employed with the Mantel-Haenszel…

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed-scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, ...

Large-Scale Teacher Professional Development Endeavor: The Lincoln Tri-State Institute

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murley, Lisa D.; Gandy, S. Kay; Sublett, Michael D.; Kruger, Darrell P.

2014-01-01

This article explores a two-year professional development initiative with four state geographic alliances. Professional development planners, whether planning for a large- or small-scale initiative or one with unlimited or limited funding, will benefit from learning about this successful professional development activity and how the impact in the…

Using Practitioner Inquiry within and against Large-Scale Educational Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hines, Mary Beth; Conner-Zachocki, Jennifer

2015-01-01

This research study examines the impact of teacher research on participants in a large-scale educational reform initiative in the United States, No Child Left Behind, and its strand for reading teachers, Reading First. Reading First supported professional development for teachers in order to increase student scores on standardized tests. The…

Visual attention mitigates information loss in small- and large-scale neural codes.

PubMed

Sprague, Thomas C; Saproo, Sameer; Serences, John T

2015-04-01

The visual system transforms complex inputs into robust and parsimonious neural codes that efficiently guide behavior. Because neural communication is stochastic, the amount of encoded visual information necessarily decreases with each synapse. This constraint requires that sensory signals are processed in a manner that protects information about relevant stimuli from degradation. Such selective processing--or selective attention--is implemented via several mechanisms, including neural gain and changes in tuning properties. However, examining each of these effects in isolation obscures their joint impact on the fidelity of stimulus feature representations by large-scale population codes. Instead, large-scale activity patterns can be used to reconstruct representations of relevant and irrelevant stimuli, thereby providing a holistic understanding about how neuron-level modulations collectively impact stimulus encoding. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts in Oregon Coastal Counties from Two Future Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jimenez, Tony; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

This analysis examines the employment and potential economic impacts of large-scale deployment of offshore wind technology off the coast of Oregon. This analysis examines impacts within the seven Oregon coastal counties: Clatsop, Tillamook, Lincoln, Lane, Douglas, Coos, and Curry. The impacts highlighted here can be used in county, state, and regional planning discussions and can be scaled to get a general sense of the economic development opportunities associated with other deployment scenarios.

Large-scale alcohol production from corn, grain sorghum, and crop residues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turhollow, A.F. Jr.

1982-01-01

The potential impacts that large-scale alcohol production from corn, grain sorghum, and crop residues may have on US agriculture in the year 2000 are investigated. A one-land-group interregional linear-programming model is used. The objective function is to minimize the cost of production in the agricultural sector, given specified crop demands and constrained resources. The impacts that levels of alcohol production, ranging from zero to 12 billion gallons, have at two projected levels of crop demands, two grain-to-alcohol conversion and two milling methods, wet and dry, rates are considered. The impacts that large-scale fuel alcohol production has on US agriculture aremore » small. The major impacts that occur are the substitution of milling by-products, DDG, gluten feed, and gluten meal, for soybean meal in livestock feed rations. Production of 12 billion gallons of alcohol is estimated to be equivalent to an 18 percent increase in crop exports. Improving the grain-to-alcohol conversion rate from 2.6 to 3.0 gallons per bushels reduces the overall cost of agricultural production by $989 billion when 12 billion gallons of alcohol are produced.« less

Large Field Photogrammetry Techniques in Aircraft and Spacecraft Impact Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Littell, Justin D.

2010-01-01

The Landing and Impact Research Facility (LandIR) at NASA Langley Research Center is a 240 ft. high A-frame structure which is used for full-scale crash testing of aircraft and rotorcraft vehicles. Because the LandIR provides a unique capability to introduce impact velocities in the forward and vertical directions, it is also serving as the facility for landing tests on full-scale and sub-scale Orion spacecraft mass simulators. Recently, a three-dimensional photogrammetry system was acquired to assist with the gathering of vehicle flight data before, throughout and after the impact. This data provides the basis for the post-test analysis and data reduction. Experimental setups for pendulum swing tests on vehicles having both forward and vertical velocities can extend to 50 x 50 x 50 foot cubes, while weather, vehicle geometry, and other constraints make each experimental setup unique to each test. This paper will discuss the specific calibration techniques for large fields of views, camera and lens selection, data processing, as well as best practice techniques learned from using the large field of view photogrammetry on a multitude of crash and landing test scenarios unique to the LandIR.

Predicting above-ground density and distribution of small mammal prey species at large spatial scales

Treesearch

Lucretia E. Olson; John R. Squires; Robert J. Oakleaf; Zachary P. Wallace; Patricia L. Kennedy

2017-01-01

Grassland and shrub-steppe ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic activities. Loss of native habitats may negatively impact important small mammal prey species. Little information, however, is available on the impact of habitat variability on density of small mammal prey species at broad spatial scales. We examined the relationship between small mammal...

A workflow for large-scale empirical identification of cell wall N-linked glycoproteins of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) fruit by tandem mass spectrometry

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Glycosylation is a common post-translational modification of plant proteins that impacts a large number of important biological processes. Nevertheless, the impacts of differential site occupancy and the nature of specific glycoforms are obscure. Historically, characterization of glycoproteins has b...

Scaling effects in the impact response of graphite-epoxy composite beams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Karen E.; Fasanella, Edwin L.

1989-01-01

In support of crashworthiness studies on composite airframes and substructure, an experimental and analytical study was conducted to characterize size effects in the large deflection response of scale model graphite-epoxy beams subjected to impact. Scale model beams of 1/2, 2/3, 3/4, 5/6, and full scale were constructed of four different laminate stacking sequences including unidirectional, angle ply, cross ply, and quasi-isotropic. The beam specimens were subjected to eccentric axial impact loads which were scaled to provide homologous beam responses. Comparisons of the load and strain time histories between the scale model beams and the prototype should verify the scale law and demonstrate the use of scale model testing for determining impact behavior of composite structures. The nonlinear structural analysis finite element program DYCAST (DYnamic Crash Analysis of STructures) was used to model the beam response. DYCAST analysis predictions of beam strain response are compared to experimental data and the results are presented.

Impact of potential large-scale and medium-scale irrigation on the West African Monsoon and its dependence on location of irrigated area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.; IM, E. S.

2014-12-01

This study investigates the impact of potential large-scale (about 400,000 km2) and medium-scale (about 60,000 km2) irrigation on the climate of West Africa using the MIT Regional Climate Model. A new irrigation module is implemented to assess the impact of location and scheduling of irrigation on rainfall distribution over West Africa. A control simulation (without irrigation) and various sensitivity experiments (with irrigation) are performed and compared to discern the effects of irrigation location, size and scheduling. In general, the irrigation-induced surface cooling due to anomalously wet soil tends to suppress moist convection and rainfall, which in turn induces local subsidence and low level anti-cyclonic circulation. These local effects are dominated by a consistent reduction of local rainfall over the irrigated land, irrespective of its location. However, the remote response of rainfall distribution to irrigation exhibits a significant sensitivity to the latitudinal position of irrigation. The low-level northeasterly flow associated with anti-cyclonic circulation centered over the irrigation area can enhance the extent of low level convergence through interaction with the prevailing monsoon flow, leading to significant increase in rainfall. Despite much reduced forcing of irrigation water, the medium-scale irrigation seems to draw the same response as large-scale irrigation, which supports the robustness of the response to irrigation in our modeling system. Both large-scale and medium-scale irrigation experiments show that an optimal irrigation location and scheduling exists that would lead to a more efficient use of irrigation water. The approach of using a regional climate model to investigate the impact of location and size of irrigation schemes may be the first step in incorporating land-atmosphere interactions in the design of location and size of irrigation projects. However, this theoretical approach is still in early stages of development and further research is needed before any practical application in water resources planning. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Novel Miscanthus Germplasm-Based Value Chains: A Life Cycle Assessment

PubMed Central

Wagner, Moritz; Kiesel, Andreas; Hastings, Astley; Iqbal, Yasir; Lewandowski, Iris

2017-01-01

In recent years, considerable progress has been made in miscanthus research: improvement of management practices, breeding of new genotypes, especially for marginal conditions, and development of novel utilization options. The purpose of the current study was a holistic analysis of the environmental performance of such novel miscanthus-based value chains. In addition, the relevance of the analyzed environmental impact categories was assessed. A Life Cycle Assessment was conducted to analyse the environmental performance of the miscanthus-based value chains in 18 impact categories. In order to include the substitution of a reference product, a system expansion approach was used. In addition, a normalization step was applied. This allowed the relevance of these impact categories to be evaluated for each utilization pathway. The miscanthus was cultivated on six sites in Europe (Aberystwyth, Adana, Moscow, Potash, Stuttgart and Wageningen) and the biomass was utilized in the following six pathways: (1) small-scale combustion (heat)—chips; (2) small-scale combustion (heat)—pellets; (3) large-scale combustion (CHP)—biomass baled for transport and storage; (4) large-scale combustion (CHP)—pellets; (5) medium-scale biogas plant—ensiled miscanthus biomass; and (6) large-scale production of insulation material. Thus, in total, the environmental performance of 36 site × pathway combinations was assessed. The comparatively high normalized results of human toxicity, marine, and freshwater ecotoxicity, and freshwater eutrophication indicate the relevance of these impact categories in the assessment of miscanthus-based value chains. Differences between the six sites can almost entirely be attributed to variations in biomass yield. However, the environmental performance of the utilization pathways analyzed varied widely. The largest differences were shown for freshwater and marine ecotoxicity, and freshwater eutrophication. The production of insulation material had the lowest impact on the environment, with net benefits in all impact categories expect three (marine eutrophication, human toxicity, agricultural land occupation). This performance can be explained by the multiple use of the biomass, first as material and subsequently as an energy carrier, and by the substitution of an emission-intensive reference product. The results of this study emphasize the importance of assessing all environmental impacts when selecting appropriate utilization pathways. PMID:28642784

Development and Large-Scale Validation of an Instrument to Assess Arabic-Speaking Students' Attitudes toward Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abd-El-Khalick, Fouad; Summers, Ryan; Said, Ziad; Wang, Shuai; Culbertson, Michael

2015-01-01

This study is part of a large-scale project focused on "Qatari students' Interest in, and Attitudes toward, Science" (QIAS). QIAS aimed to gauge Qatari student attitudes toward science in grades 3-12, examine factors that impact these attitudes, and assess the relationship between student attitudes and prevailing modes of science…

Accommodations for English Language Learners Taking Large-Scale Assessments: A Meta-Analysis on Effectiveness and Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kieffer, Michael J.; Lesaux, Nonie K.; Rivera, Mabel; Francis, David J.

2009-01-01

Including English language learners (ELLs) in large-scale assessments raises questions about the validity of inferences based on their scores. Test accommodations for ELLs are intended to reduce the impact of limited English proficiency on the assessment of the target construct, most often mathematic or science proficiency. This meta-analysis…

Implementing Large-Scale Instructional Technology in Kenya: Changing Instructional Practice and Developing Accountability in a National Education System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piper, Benjamin; Oyanga, Arbogast; Mejia, Jessica; Pouezevara, Sarah

2017-01-01

Previous large-scale education technology interventions have shown only modest impacts on student achievement. Building on results from an earlier randomized controlled trial of three different applications of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on primary education in Kenya, the Tusome Early Grade Reading Activity developed the…

Monitoring Ephemeral Streams Using Airborne Very High Resolution Multispectral Remote Sensing in Arid Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamada, Y.; O'Connor, B. L.

2012-12-01

Development in arid environments often results in the loss and degradation of the ephemeral streams that provide habitat and critical ecosystem functions such as water delivery, sediment transport, and groundwater recharge. Quantification of these ecosystem functions is challenging because of the episodic nature of runoff events in desert landscapes and the large spatial scale of watersheds that potentially can be impacted by large-scale development. Low-impact development guidelines and regulatory protection of ephemeral streams are often lacking due to the difficulty of accurately mapping and quantifying the critical functions of ephemeral streams at scales larger than individual reaches. Renewable energy development in arid regions has the potential to disturb ephemeral streams at the watershed scale, and it is necessary to develop environmental monitoring applications for ephemeral streams to help inform land management and regulatory actions aimed at protecting and mitigating for impacts related to large-scale land disturbances. This study focuses on developing remote sensing methodologies to identify and monitor impacts on ephemeral streams resulting from the land disturbance associated with utility-scale solar energy development in the desert southwest of the United States. Airborne very high resolution (VHR) multispectral imagery is used to produce stereoscopic, three-dimensional landscape models that can be used to (1) identify and map ephemeral stream channel networks, and (2) support analyses and models of hydrologic and sediment transport processes that pertain to the critical functionality of ephemeral streams. Spectral and statistical analyses are being developed to extract information about ephemeral channel location and extent, micro-topography, riparian vegetation, and soil moisture characteristics. This presentation will demonstrate initial results and provide a framework for future work associated with this project, for developing the necessary field measurements necessary to verify remote sensing landscape models, and for generating hydrologic models and analyses.

Meteor Crater: Energy of formation - Implications of centrifuge scaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, R. M.

1980-01-01

Recent work on explosive cratering has demonstrated the utility of performing subscale experiments on a geotechnic centrifuge to develop scaling rules for very large energy events. The present investigation is concerned with an extension of this technique to impact cratering. Experiments have been performed using a projectile gun mounted directly on the centrifuge rotor to launch projectiles into a suitable soil container undergoing centripetal accelerations in excess of 500 G. The pump tube of a two-stage light-gas gun was used to attain impact velocities of approximately 2 km/sec. The results of the experiments indicate that the energy of formation of any large impact crater depends upon the impact velocity. This dependence, shown for the case of Meteor Crater, is consistent with analogous results for the specific energy dependence of explosives and is expected to persist to impact velocities in excess of 25 km/sec.

Progressive Mid-latitude Afforestation: Local and Remote Climate Impacts in the Framework of Two Coupled Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, Marysa

Vegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and non-linear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, we systematically evaluate the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover over the northern mid-latitudes. We show that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern mid-latitudes determines the climate response in a non-linear fashion, and identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks - a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large increases in tree cover, causing the troposphere to warm and dry, subsequently reducing cloud cover. Increased absorption of solar radiation at the surface is driven by both surface albedo changes and cloud feedbacks. We identify how vegetation-induced changes in cloud cover further feedback on changes in the global energy balance. We also show how atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport changes as the area of afforestation is incrementally increased (a relationship which has not previously been demonstrated). This work demonstrates that while some climate effects (such as energy transport) of large scale mid-latitude afforestation scale roughly linearly across a wide range of afforestation areas, others (such as the local partitioning of the surface energy budget) are non-linear, and sensitive to the particular magnitude of mid-latitude forcing. Our results highlight the importance of considering both local and remote climate responses to large-scale vegetation change, and explore the scaling relationship between changes in vegetation cover and the resulting climate impacts.

Techniques for inventorying manmade impacts in roadway environments.

Treesearch

Dale R. Potter; J. Alan. Wagar

1971-01-01

Four techniques for inventorying manmade impacts along roadway corridors were devised and compared. Ground surveillance and ground photography techniques recorded impacts within the corridor visible from the road. Techniques on large- and small-scale aerial photography recorded impacts within a more complete corridor that included areas screened from the road by...

Eyjafjallajökull and 9/11: The Impact of Large-Scale Disasters on Worldwide Mobility

PubMed Central

Woolley-Meza, Olivia; Grady, Daniel; Thiemann, Christian; Bagrow, James P.; Brockmann, Dirk

2013-01-01

Large-scale disasters that interfere with globalized socio-technical infrastructure, such as mobility and transportation networks, trigger high socio-economic costs. Although the origin of such events is often geographically confined, their impact reverberates through entire networks in ways that are poorly understood, difficult to assess, and even more difficult to predict. We investigate how the eruption of volcano Eyjafjallajökull, the September 11th terrorist attacks, and geographical disruptions in general interfere with worldwide mobility. To do this we track changes in effective distance in the worldwide air transportation network from the perspective of individual airports. We find that universal features exist across these events: airport susceptibilities to regional disruptions follow similar, strongly heterogeneous distributions that lack a scale. On the other hand, airports are more uniformly susceptible to attacks that target the most important hubs in the network, exhibiting a well-defined scale. The statistical behavior of susceptibility can be characterized by a single scaling exponent. Using scaling arguments that capture the interplay between individual airport characteristics and the structural properties of routes we can recover the exponent for all types of disruption. We find that the same mechanisms responsible for efficient passenger flow may also keep the system in a vulnerable state. Our approach can be applied to understand the impact of large, correlated disruptions in financial systems, ecosystems and other systems with a complex interaction structure between heterogeneous components. PMID:23950904

Bursting process of large- and small-scale structures in turbulent boundary layer perturbed by a cylinder roughness element

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zhanqi; Jiang, Nan; Zheng, Xiaobo; Wu, Yanhua

2016-05-01

Hot-wire measurements on a turbulent boundary layer flow perturbed by a wall-mounted cylinder roughness element (CRE) are carried out in this study. The cylindrical element protrudes into the logarithmic layer, which is similar to those employed in turbulent boundary layers by Ryan et al. (AIAA J 49:2210-2220, 2011. doi: 10.2514/1.j051012) and Zheng and Longmire (J Fluid Mech 748:368-398, 2014. doi: 10.1017/jfm.2014.185) and in turbulent channel flow by Pathikonda and Christensen (AIAA J 53:1-10, 2014. doi: 10.2514/1.j053407). The similar effects on both the mean velocity and Reynolds stress are observed downstream of the CRE perturbation. The series of hot-wire data are decomposed into large- and small-scale fluctuations, and the characteristics of large- and small-scale bursting process are observed, by comparing the bursting duration, period and frequency between CRE-perturbed case and unperturbed case. It is indicated that the CRE perturbation performs the significant impact on the large- and small-scale structures, but within the different impact scenario. Moreover, the large-scale bursting process imposes a modulation on the bursting events of small-scale fluctuations and the overall trend of modulation is not essentially sensitive to the present CRE perturbation, even the modulation extent is modified. The conditionally averaging fluctuations are also plotted, which further confirms the robustness of the bursting modulation in the present experiments.

Validation of the Impact of Event Scale for Psychological Sequelae of Combat.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwarzwald, Joseph; And Others

1987-01-01

Attempted to validate the Impact of Event Scale (IES) with a large sample of males who had been exposed to combat trauma. The IES was shown to be sensitive to differences between and within the three subject groups (combat stress reaction group, combat control group, noncombat control group). Four basic patterns of intrusion and avoidance were…

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boun...

Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Jaya

More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of transition seasons, hence occurring in atmospheric conditions otherwise less conducive to thermal convection. Evidence of this phenomenon is found at two large scale deforested areas considered in this thesis. Hence, the 'dynamical' mechanism, which affects the seasons most important for regional ecology, emerges as an impactful convective triggering mechanism. The phenomenon studied in this thesis provides context for thinking about the climate of a future, more patchily forested Amazonia, by articulating relationships between climate and spatial scales of deforestation.

A Bayesian hierarchical latent trait model for estimating rater bias and reliability in large-scale performance assessment

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We propose a novel approach to modelling rater effects in scoring-based assessment. The approach is based on a Bayesian hierarchical model and simulations from the posterior distribution. We apply it to large-scale essay assessment data over a period of 5 years. Empirical results suggest that the model provides a good fit for both the total scores and when applied to individual rubrics. We estimate the median impact of rater effects on the final grade to be ± 2 points on a 50 point scale, while 10% of essays would receive a score at least ± 5 different from their actual quality. Most of the impact is due to rater unreliability, not rater bias. PMID:29614129

A study on large-scale nudging effects in regional climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yhang, Yoo-Bin; Hong, Song-You

2011-05-01

The large-scale nudging effects on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are examined using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The NCEP/DOE reanalysis data is used to provide large-scale forcings for RSM simulations, configured with an approximately 50-km grid over East Asia, centered on the Korean peninsula. The RSM with a variant of spectral nudging, that is, the scale selective bias correction (SSBC), is forced by perfect boundary conditions during the summers (June-July-August) from 1979 to 2004. The two summers of 2000 and 2004 are investigated to demonstrate the impact of SSBC on precipitation in detail. It is found that the effect of SSBC on the simulated seasonal precipitation is in general neutral without a discernible advantage. Although errors in large-scale circulation for both 2000 and 2004 are reduced by using the SSBC method, the impact on simulated precipitation is found to be negative in 2000 and positive in 2004 summers. One possible reason for a different effect is that precipitation in the summer of 2004 is characterized by a strong baroclinicity, while precipitation in 2000 is caused by thermodynamic instability. The reduction of convective rainfall over the oceans by the application of the SSBC method seems to play an important role in modeled atmosphere.

The Large Scale Distribution of Water Ice in the Polar Regions of the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, A.; Wilson, J. K.; Schwadron, N.; Spence, H. E.

2017-12-01

For in situ resource utilization, one must know where water ice is on the Moon. Many datasets have revealed both surface deposits of water ice and subsurface deposits of hydrogen near the lunar poles, but it has proved difficult to resolve the differences among the locations of these deposits. Despite these datasets disagreeing on how deposits are distributed on small scales, we show that most of these datasets do agree on the large scale distribution of water ice. We present data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), LRO's Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND), the Neutron Spectrometer on Lunar Prospector (LPNS), LRO's Lyman Alpha Mapping Project (LAMP), LRO's Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA), and Chandrayaan-1's Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3). All, including those that show clear evidence for water ice, reveal surprisingly similar trends with latitude, suggesting that both surface and subsurface datasets are measuring ice. All show that water ice increases towards the poles, and most demonstrate that its signature appears at about ±70° latitude and increases poleward. This is consistent with simulations of how surface and subsurface cold traps are distributed with latitude. This large scale agreement constrains the origin of the ice, suggesting that an ancient cometary impact (or impacts) created a large scale deposit that has been rendered locally heterogeneous by subsequent impacts. Furthermore, it also shows that water ice may be available down to ±70°—latitudes that are more accessible than the poles for landing.

Assessing change in the family impact of caries in young children after treatment under general anaesthesia.

PubMed

Thomson, William Murray; Malden, Penelope Elizabeth

2011-09-01

To examine the properties, validity and responsiveness of the Family Impact Scale in a consecutive clinical sample of patients undergoing dental treatment under general anaesthesia. A consecutive clinical sample of parents/caregivers of children receiving dental treatment under general anaesthesia provided data using the Family Impact Scale (FIS) component of the COHQOL(©) Questionnaire. The first questionnaire was completed before treatment, the follow-up questionnaire 1-4 weeks afterward. Treatment-associated changes in the FIS and its components were determined by comparing baseline and follow-up data. Baseline and follow-up data were obtained for 202 and 130 participants, respectively (64.4% follow-up). All FIS items showed large relative decreases in prevalence, the greatest seen in those relating to having sleep disrupted, blaming others, being upset, the child requiring more attention, financial difficulties and having to take time off work. Factor analysis largely confirmed the underlying factor structure, with three sub-scales (parental/family, parental emotions and family conflict) identified. The parental/family and parental emotions sub-scales showed the greatest treatment-associated improvement, with large effect sizes. There was a moderate improvement in scores on the family conflict sub-scale. The overall FIS showed a large improvement. Treating children with severe caries under general anaesthesia results in OHRQoL improvements for the family. Severe dental caries is not merely a restorative and preventive challenge for those who treat children; it has far-reaching effects on those who share the household and care for the affected child.

The impact of Lyman-α radiative transfer on large-scale clustering in the Illustris simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, C.; Byrohl, C.; Saito, S.; Niemeyer, J. C.

2018-06-01

Context. Lyman-α emitters (LAEs) are a promising probe of the large-scale structure at high redshift, z ≳ 2. In particular, the Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment aims at observing LAEs at 1.9 < z < 3.5 to measure the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale and the redshift-space distortion (RSD). However, it has been pointed out that the complicated radiative transfer (RT) of the resonant Lyman-α emission line generates an anisotropic selection bias in the LAE clustering on large scales, s ≳ 10 Mpc. This effect could potentially induce a systematic error in the BAO and RSD measurements. Also, there exists a recent claim to have observational evidence of the effect in the Lyman-α intensity map, albeit statistically insignificant. Aims: We aim at quantifying the impact of the Lyman-α RT on the large-scale galaxy clustering in detail. For this purpose, we study the correlations between the large-scale environment and the ratio of an apparent Lyman-α luminosity to an intrinsic one, which we call the "observed fraction", at 2 < z < 6. Methods: We apply our Lyman-α RT code by post-processing the full Illustris simulations. We simply assume that the intrinsic luminosity of the Lyman-α emission is proportional to the star formation rate of galaxies in Illustris, yielding a sufficiently large sample of LAEs to measure the anisotropic selection bias. Results: We find little correlation between large-scale environment and the observed fraction induced by the RT, and hence a smaller anisotropic selection bias than has previously been claimed. We argue that the anisotropy was overestimated in previous work due to insufficient spatial resolution; it is important to keep the resolution such that it resolves the high-density region down to the scale of the interstellar medium, that is, 1 physical kpc. We also find that the correlation can be further enhanced by assumptions in modeling intrinsic Lyman-α emission.

Environmental impacts of large-scale CSP plants in northwestern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiyong; Hou, Anping; Chang, Chun; Huang, Xiang; Shi, Duoqi; Wang, Zhifeng

2014-01-01

Several concentrated solar power demonstration plants are being constructed, and a few commercial plants have been announced in northwestern China. However, the mutual impacts between the concentrated solar power plants and their surrounding environments have not yet been addressed comprehensively in literature by the parties involved in these projects. In China, these projects are especially important as an increasing amount of low carbon electricity needs to be generated in order to maintain the current economic growth while simultaneously lessening pollution. In this study, the authors assess the potential environmental impacts of large-scale concentrated solar power plants. Specifically, the water use intensity, soil erosion and soil temperature are quantitatively examined. It was found that some of the impacts are favorable, while some impacts are negative in relation to traditional power generation techniques and some need further research before they can be reasonably appraised. In quantitative terms, concentrated solar power plants consume about 4000 L MW(-1) h(-1) of water if wet cooling technology is used, and the collectors lead to the soil temperature changes of between 0.5 and 4 °C; however, it was found that the soil erosion is dramatically alleviated. The results of this study are helpful to decision-makers in concentrated solar power site selection and regional planning. Some conclusions of this study are also valid for large-scale photovoltaic plants.

Outlook and Challenges of Perovskite Solar Cells toward Terawatt-Scale Photovoltaic Module Technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Kai; Kim, Donghoe; Whitaker, James B

Rapid development of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) during the past several years has made this photovoltaic (PV) technology a serious contender for potential large-scale deployment on the terawatt scale in the PV market. To successfully transition PSC technology from the laboratory to industry scale, substantial efforts need to focus on scalable fabrication of high-performance perovskite modules with minimum negative environmental impact. Here, we provide an overview of the current research and our perspective regarding PSC technology toward future large-scale manufacturing and deployment. Several key challenges discussed are (1) a scalable process for large-area perovskite module fabrication; (2) less hazardous chemicalmore » routes for PSC fabrication; and (3) suitable perovskite module designs for different applications.« less

Evaluating the Performance of the Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework against GPM, TRMM and CloudSat/CALIPSO Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, J. D.; Tao, W. K.; Lang, S. E.; Matsui, T.; Mohr, K. I.

2014-12-01

Four six-month (March-August 2014) experiments with the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) were performed to study the impacts of different Goddard one-moment bulk microphysical schemes and large-scale forcings on the performance of the MMF. Recently a new Goddard one-moment bulk microphysics with four-ice classes (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) has been developed based on cloud-resolving model simulations with large-scale forcings from field campaign observations. The new scheme has been successfully implemented to the MMF and two MMF experiments were carried out with this new scheme and the old three-ice classes (cloud ice, snow graupel) scheme. The MMF has global coverage and can rigorously evaluate microphysics performance for different cloud regimes. The results show MMF with the new scheme outperformed the old one. The MMF simulations are also strongly affected by the interaction between large-scale and cloud-scale processes. Two MMF sensitivity experiments with and without nudging large-scale forcings to those of ERA-Interim reanalysis were carried out to study the impacts of large-scale forcings. The model simulated mean and variability of surface precipitation, cloud types, cloud properties such as cloud amount, hydrometeors vertical profiles, and cloud water contents, etc. in different geographic locations and climate regimes are evaluated against GPM, TRMM, CloudSat/CALIPSO satellite observations. The Goddard MMF has also been coupled with the Goddard Satellite Data Simulation Unit (G-SDSU), a system with multi-satellite, multi-sensor, and multi-spectrum satellite simulators. The statistics of MMF simulated radiances and backscattering can be directly compared with satellite observations to assess the strengths and/or deficiencies of MMF simulations and provide guidance on how to improve the MMF and microphysics.

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

2016-01-05

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemblemore » forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.« less

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemblemore » forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.« less

Supercapacitors specialities - Technology review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Münchgesang, Wolfram; Meisner, Patrick; Yushin, Gleb

2014-06-01

Commercial electrochemical capacitors (supercapacitors) are not limited to mobile electronics anymore, but have reached the field of large-scale applications, like smart grid, wind turbines, power for large scale ground, water and aerial transportation, energy-efficient industrial equipment and others. This review gives a short overview of the current state-of-the-art of electrochemical capacitors, their commercial applications and the impact of technological development on performance.

Evaluation of Large-Scale Public-Sector Reforms: A Comparative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breidahl, Karen N.; Gjelstrup, Gunnar; Hansen, Hanne Foss; Hansen, Morten Balle

2017-01-01

Research on the evaluation of large-scale public-sector reforms is rare. This article sets out to fill that gap in the evaluation literature and argues that it is of vital importance since the impact of such reforms is considerable and they change the context in which evaluations of other and more delimited policy areas take place. In our…

Monitoring Forest Condition in Europe: Impacts of Nitrogen and Sulfur Depositions on Forest Ecosystems

Treesearch

M. Lorenz; G. Becher; V. Mues; E. Ulrich

2006-01-01

Forest condition in Europe has been monitored over 19 years jointly by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the European Union (EU). Large-scale variations of forest condition over space and time in relation to natural and anthropogenic factors are assessed on about 6,000 plots systematically spread across Europe. This large-scale monitoring...

Supercapacitors specialities - Technology review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Münchgesang, Wolfram; Meisner, Patrick; Yushin, Gleb

2014-06-16

Commercial electrochemical capacitors (supercapacitors) are not limited to mobile electronics anymore, but have reached the field of large-scale applications, like smart grid, wind turbines, power for large scale ground, water and aerial transportation, energy-efficient industrial equipment and others. This review gives a short overview of the current state-of-the-art of electrochemical capacitors, their commercial applications and the impact of technological development on performance.

Effectiveness of Large-Scale Community-Based Intensive Behavioral Intervention: A Waitlist Comparison Study Exploring Outcomes and Predictors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flanagan, Helen E.; Perry, Adrienne; Freeman, Nancy L.

2012-01-01

File review data were used to explore the impact of a large-scale publicly funded Intensive Behavioral Intervention (IBI) program for young children with autism. Outcomes were compared for 61 children who received IBI and 61 individually matched children from a waitlist comparison group. In addition, predictors of better cognitive outcomes were…

Impacts of wildfire smoke plumes on regional air quality

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Recent trends in increased frequency and severity of large fires necessitate an improved understanding of smoke plume impacts on regional-scale air quality and public health. Objective: We examine the impact of fire smoke on regional air quality between 2006 and 2013 ...

Formulating a subgrid-scale breakup model for microbubble generation from interfacial collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Wai Hong Ronald; Mirjalili, Shahab; Urzay, Javier; Mani, Ali; Moin, Parviz

2017-11-01

Multiphase flows often involve impact events that engender important effects like the generation of a myriad of tiny bubbles that are subsequently transported in large liquid bodies. These impact events are created by large-scale phenomena like breaking waves on ocean surfaces, and often involve the relative approach of liquid surfaces. This relative motion generates continuously shrinking length scales as the entrapped gas layer thins and eventually breaks up into microbubbles. The treatment of this disparity in length scales is computationally challenging. In this presentation, a framework is presented that addresses a subgrid-scale (SGS) model aimed at capturing the process of microbubble generation. This work sets up the components in an overarching volume-of-fluid (VoF) toolset and investigates the analytical foundations of an SGS model for describing the breakup of a thin air film trapped between two approaching water bodies in a physical regime corresponding to Mesler entrainment. Constituents of the SGS model, such as the identification of impact events and the accurate computation of the local characteristic curvature in a VoF-based architecture, and the treatment of the air layer breakup, are discussed and illustrated in simplified scenarios. Supported by Office of Naval Research (ONR)/A*STAR (Singapore).

Characterizing Impacts of Land Grabbing on Terrestrial Vegetation and Ecohydrologic change in Mozambique through Multiple-sensor Remote Sensing and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, A. N.; Lakshmi, V.; Al-Barakat, R.; Maksimowicz, M.

2017-12-01

Land grabbing, the acquisition of large areas of land by external entities, results from interactions of complex global economic, social, and political processes. These transactions are controversial because they can result in large-scale disruptions to historical land uses, including increased intensity of agricultural practices and significant conversions in land cover. These large-scale disruptions have the potential to impact surface water and energy balance because vegetation controls the partitioning of incoming energy into latent and sensible heat fluxes and precipitation into runoff and infiltration. Because large-scale land acquisitions can impact local ecosystem services, it is important to document changes in terrestrial vegetation associated with these acquisitions to support the assessment of associated impacts on regional surface water and energy balance, spatiotemporal scales of those changes, and interactions and feedbacks with other processes, particularly in the atmosphere. We use remote sensing data from multiple satellite platforms to diagnose and characterize changes in terrestrial vegetation and ecohydrology in Mozambique during periods that bracket periods associated with significant. The Advanced very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor provides long-term continuous data that can document historical seasonal cycles of vegetation greenness. These data are augmented with analyses from Landsat multispectral data, which provides significantly higher spatial resolution. Here we quantify spatiotemporal changes in vegetation are associated with periods of significant land acquisitions in Mozambique. This analysis complements a suite of land-atmosphere modeling experiments designed to deduce potential changes in land surface water and energy budgets associated with these acquisitions. This work advance understanding of how telecouplings between global economic and political forcings and regional hydrology and climate.

Corridors cause differential seed predation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrock, John L.; Damschen, Ellen I.

2005-06-01

Orrock, John, L., and Ellen I. Damschen. 2005. Corridors cause differential seed predation. Ecol. Apps. 15(3):793-798. Abstract. Corridors that connect disjunct populations are heavily debated in conservation, largely because the effects of corridors have rarely been evaluated by replicated, large-scale studies. Using large-scale experimental landscapes, we found that, in addition to documented positive effects, corridors also have negative impacts on bird-dispersed plants by affecting seed predation, and that overall predation is a function of the seeds primary consumer (rodents or arthropods). Both large-seeded Prunus serotina and small-seeded Rubus allegheniensis experienced greater predation in connected patches. However, P. serotina experienced significantlymore » less seed predation compared to R. allegheniensis in unconnected patches, due to decreased impacts of rodent seed predators on this large-seeded species. Viewed in light of previous evidence that corridors have beneficial impacts by increasing pollination and seed dispersal, this work demonstrates that corridors may have both positive and negative effects for the same plant species at different life stages. Moreover, these effects may differentially affect plant species within the same community: seeds primarily consumed by rodents suffer less predation in unconnected patches. By shifting the impact of rodent and arthropod seed predators, corridors constructed for plant conservation could lead to shifts in the seed bank.« less

Impact of Chromosome 4p- Syndrome on Communication and Expressive Language Skills: A Preliminary Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshall, Althea T.

2010-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this investigation was to examine the impact of Chromosome 4p- syndrome on the communication and expressive language phenotype of a large cross-cultural population of children, adolescents, and adults. Method: A large-scale survey study was conducted and a descriptive research design was used to analyze quantitative and…

On the scaling of small-scale jet noise to large scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soderman, Paul T.; Allen, Christopher S.

1992-01-01

An examination was made of several published jet noise studies for the purpose of evaluating scale effects important to the simulation of jet aeroacoustics. Several studies confirmed that small conical jets, one as small as 59 mm diameter, could be used to correctly simulate the overall or perceived noise level (PNL) noise of large jets dominated by mixing noise. However, the detailed acoustic spectra of large jets are more difficult to simulate because of the lack of broad-band turbulence spectra in small jets. One study indicated that a jet Reynolds number of 5 x 10(exp 6) based on exhaust diameter enabled the generation of broad-band noise representative of large jet mixing noise. Jet suppressor aeroacoustics is even more difficult to simulate at small scale because of the small mixer nozzles with flows sensitive to Reynolds number. Likewise, one study showed incorrect ejector mixing and entrainment using a small-scale, short ejector that led to poor acoustic scaling. Conversely, fairly good results were found with a longer ejector and, in a different study, with a 32-chute suppressor nozzle. Finally, it was found that small-scale aeroacoustic resonance produced by jets impacting ground boards does not reproduce at large scale.

On the scaling of small-scale jet noise to large scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soderman, Paul T.; Allen, Christopher S.

1992-01-01

An examination was made of several published jet noise studies for the purpose of evaluating scale effects important to the simulation of jet aeroacoustics. Several studies confirmed that small conical jets, one as small as 59 mm diameter, could be used to correctly simulate the overall or PNL noise of large jets dominated by mixing noise. However, the detailed acoustic spectra of large jets are more difficult to simulate because of the lack of broad-band turbulence spectra in small jets. One study indicated that a jet Reynolds number of 5 x 10 exp 6 based on exhaust diameter enabled the generation of broad-band noise representative of large jet mixing noise. Jet suppressor aeroacoustics is even more difficult to simulate at small scale because of the small mixer nozzles with flows sensitive to Reynolds number. Likewise, one study showed incorrect ejector mixing and entrainment using small-scale, short ejector that led to poor acoustic scaling. Conversely, fairly good results were found with a longer ejector and, in a different study, with a 32-chute suppressor nozzle. Finally, it was found that small-scale aeroacoustic resonance produced by jets impacting ground boards does not reproduce at large scale.

Impact of spatially correlated pore-scale heterogeneity on drying porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgman, Oshri; Fantinel, Paolo; Lühder, Wieland; Goehring, Lucas; Holtzman, Ran

2017-07-01

We study the effect of spatially-correlated heterogeneity on isothermal drying of porous media. We combine a minimal pore-scale model with microfluidic experiments with the same pore geometry. Our simulated drying behavior compares favorably with experiments, considering the large sensitivity of the emergent behavior to the uncertainty associated with even small manufacturing errors. We show that increasing the correlation length in particle sizes promotes preferential drying of clusters of large pores, prolonging liquid connectivity and surface wetness and thus higher drying rates for longer periods. Our findings improve our quantitative understanding of how pore-scale heterogeneity impacts drying, which plays a role in a wide range of processes ranging from fuel cells to curing of paints and cements to global budgets of energy, water and solutes in soils.

Planetary Structures And Simulations Of Large-scale Impacts On Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swift, Damian; El-Dasher, B.

2009-09-01

The impact of large meteroids is a possible cause for isolated orogeny on bodies devoid of tectonic activity. On Mars, there is a significant, but not perfect, correlation between large, isolated volcanoes and antipodal impact craters. On Mercury and the Moon, brecciated terrain and other unusual surface features can be found at the antipodes of large impact sites. On Earth, there is a moderate correlation between long-lived mantle hotspots at opposite sides of the planet, with meteoroid impact suggested as a possible cause. If induced by impacts, the mechanisms of orogeny and volcanism thus appear to vary between these bodies, presumably because of differences in internal structure. Continuum mechanics (hydrocode) simulations have been used to investigate the response of planetary bodies to impacts, requiring assumptions about the structure of the body: its composition and temperature profile, and the constitutive properties (equation of state, strength, viscosity) of the components. We are able to predict theoretically and test experimentally the constitutive properties of matter under planetary conditions, with reasonable accuracy. To provide a reference series of simulations, we have constructed self-consistent planetary structures using simplified compositions (Fe core and basalt-like mantle), which turn out to agree surprisingly well with the moments of inertia. We have performed simulations of large-scale impacts, studying the transmission of energy to the antipodes. For Mars, significant antipodal heating to depths of a few tens of kilometers was predicted from compression waves transmitted through the mantle. Such heating is a mechanism for volcanism on Mars, possibly in conjunction with crustal cracking induced by surface waves. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Effects of Interim Assessments on Student Achievement: Evidence from a Large-Scale Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Konstantopoulos, Spyros; Miller, Shazia R.; van der Ploeg, Arie; Li, Wei

2016-01-01

We use data from a large-scale, school-level randomized experiment conducted in 2010-2011 in public schools in Indiana. Our sample includes more than 30,000 students in 70 schools. We examine the impact of two interim assessment programs (i.e., mCLASS in Grades K-2 and Acuity in Grades 3--8) on mathematics and reading achievement. Two-level models…

Historical and current landscape-scale ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest structure in the Southern Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Scott L. Stephens; Jamie M. Lydersen; Brandon M. Collins; Danny L. Fry; Marc D. Meyer

2015-01-01

Many managers today are tasked with restoring forests to mitigate the potential for uncharacteristically severe fire. One challenge to this mandate is the lack of large-scale reference information on forest structure prior to impacts from Euro-American settlement. We used a robust 1911 historical dataset that covers a large geographic extent (>10,000 ha) and has...

Is scale-up of community mobilisation among sex workers really possible in complex urban environments? The case of Mumbai, India.

PubMed

Kongelf, Anine; Bandewar, Sunita V S; Bharat, Shalini; Collumbien, Martine

2015-01-01

In the last decade, community mobilisation (CM) interventions targeting female sex workers (FSWs) have been scaled-up in India's national response to the HIV epidemic. This included the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation's Avahan programme which adopted a business approach to plan and manage implementation at scale. With the focus of evaluation efforts on measuring effectiveness and health impacts there has been little analysis thus far of the interaction of the CM interventions with the sex work industry in complex urban environments. Between March and July 2012 semi-structured, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions were conducted with 63 HIV intervention implementers, to explore challenges of HIV prevention among FSWs in Mumbai. A thematic analysis identified contextual factors that impact CM implementation. Large-scale interventions are not only impacted by, but were shown to shape the dynamic social context. Registration practices and programme monitoring were experienced as stigmatising, reflected in shifting client preferences towards women not disclosing as 'sex workers'. This combined with urban redevelopment and gentrification of traditional red light areas, forcing dispersal and more 'hidden' ways of solicitation, further challenging outreach and collectivisation. Participants reported that brothel owners and 'pimps' continued to restrict access to sex workers and the heterogeneous 'community' of FSWs remains fragmented with high levels of mobility. Stakeholder engagement was poor and mobilising around HIV prevention not compelling. Interventions largely failed to respond to community needs as strong target-orientation skewed activities towards those most easily measured and reported. Large-scale interventions have been impacted by and contributed to an increasingly complex sex work environment in Mumbai, challenging outreach and mobilisation efforts. Sex workers remain a vulnerable and disempowered group needing continued support and more comprehensive services.

How global extinctions impact regional biodiversity in mammals.

PubMed

Huang, Shan; Davies, T Jonathan; Gittleman, John L

2012-04-23

Phylogenetic diversity (PD) represents the evolutionary history of a species assemblage and is a valuable measure of biodiversity because it captures not only species richness but potentially also genetic and functional diversity. Preserving PD could be critical for maintaining the functional integrity of the world's ecosystems, and species extinction will have a large impact on ecosystems in areas where the ecosystem cost per species extinction is high. Here, we show that impacts from global extinctions are linked to spatial location. Using a phylogeny of all mammals, we compare regional losses of PD against a model of random extinction. At regional scales, losses differ dramatically: several biodiversity hotspots in southern Asia and Amazonia will lose an unexpectedly large proportion of PD. Global analyses may therefore underestimate the impacts of extinction on ecosystem processes and function because they occur at finer spatial scales within the context of natural biogeography.

Antipodal Magnetic Anomalies on the Moon, Contributions from Impact Induced Currents Due to Positive Holes and Flexoelectric Phenomina and Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kletetschka, G.; Freund, F.; Wasilewski, P. J.; Mikula, V.; Kohout, Tomas

2005-01-01

Large impacts on the Moon generate large pressure pulses that penetrate the whole body. Several of these large impacts may have generated antipodal structure with anomalous magnetic intensity.These regions can be more than a thousand km across, with fields of the order of tens to hundreds of nT. This is the case of Orientale, Imbrium, Serenitatis, Crisium, and Nectaris impact basins. The production of large-scale magnetic fields and associated crustal magnetization due to lunar basin-forming impacts was hypothesized to have an origin in fields external to the impact plasma cloud that are produced by the magnetohydrodynamic interaction of the cloud with ambient magnetic fields and plasmas. During the period of compressed antipodal field amplification, seismic compressional waves from the impact converge at the antipode resulting in transient shock pressures that reach 2 GPa (20 kbar). This can produce conditions for shock magnetic acquisition of the crust antipodal to impact basins.

The micro-environmental impact of volatile organic compound emissions from large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dutta, Tanushree

Large-scale assemblies of people in a confined space can exert significant impacts on the local air chemistry due to human emissions of volatile organics. Variations of air-quality in such small scale can be studied by quantifying fingerprint volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as acetone, toluene, and isoprene produced during concerts, movie screenings, and sport events (like the Olympics and the World Cup). This review summarizes the extent of VOC accumulation resulting from a large population in a confined area or in a small open area during sporting and other recreational activities. Apart from VOCs emitted directly from human bodies (e.g.,more » perspiration and exhaled breath), those released indirectly from other related sources (e.g., smoking, waste disposal, discharge of food-waste, and use of personal-care products) are also discussed. Although direct and indirect emissions of VOCs from human may constitute <1% of the global atmospheric VOCs budget, unique spatiotemporal variations in VOCs species within a confined space can have unforeseen impacts on the local atmosphere to lead to acute human exposure to harmful pollutants.« less

The Effects of Run-of-River Hydroelectric Power Schemes on Fish Community Composition in Temperate Streams and Rivers

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The potential environmental impacts of large-scale storage hydroelectric power (HEP) schemes have been well-documented in the literature. In Europe, awareness of these potential impacts and limited opportunities for politically-acceptable medium- to large-scale schemes, have caused attention to focus on smaller-scale HEP schemes, particularly run-of-river (ROR) schemes, to contribute to meeting renewable energy targets. Run-of-river HEP schemes are often presumed to be less environmentally damaging than large-scale storage HEP schemes. However, there is currently a lack of peer-reviewed studies on their physical and ecological impact. The aim of this article was to investigate the effects of ROR HEP schemes on communities of fish in temperate streams and rivers, using a Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) study design. The study makes use of routine environmental surveillance data collected as part of long-term national and international monitoring programmes at 23 systematically-selected ROR HEP schemes and 23 systematically-selected paired control sites. Six area-normalised metrics of fish community composition were analysed using a linear mixed effects model (number of species, number of fish, number of Atlantic salmon—Salmo salar, number of >1 year old Atlantic salmon, number of brown trout—Salmo trutta, and number of >1 year old brown trout). The analyses showed that there was a statistically significant effect (p<0.05) of ROR HEP construction and operation on the number of species. However, no statistically significant effects were detected on the other five metrics of community composition. The implications of these findings are discussed in this article and recommendations are made for best-practice study design for future fish community impact studies. PMID:27191717

The Effects of Run-of-River Hydroelectric Power Schemes on Fish Community Composition in Temperate Streams and Rivers.

PubMed

Bilotta, Gary S; Burnside, Niall G; Gray, Jeremy C; Orr, Harriet G

2016-01-01

The potential environmental impacts of large-scale storage hydroelectric power (HEP) schemes have been well-documented in the literature. In Europe, awareness of these potential impacts and limited opportunities for politically-acceptable medium- to large-scale schemes, have caused attention to focus on smaller-scale HEP schemes, particularly run-of-river (ROR) schemes, to contribute to meeting renewable energy targets. Run-of-river HEP schemes are often presumed to be less environmentally damaging than large-scale storage HEP schemes. However, there is currently a lack of peer-reviewed studies on their physical and ecological impact. The aim of this article was to investigate the effects of ROR HEP schemes on communities of fish in temperate streams and rivers, using a Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) study design. The study makes use of routine environmental surveillance data collected as part of long-term national and international monitoring programmes at 23 systematically-selected ROR HEP schemes and 23 systematically-selected paired control sites. Six area-normalised metrics of fish community composition were analysed using a linear mixed effects model (number of species, number of fish, number of Atlantic salmon-Salmo salar, number of >1 year old Atlantic salmon, number of brown trout-Salmo trutta, and number of >1 year old brown trout). The analyses showed that there was a statistically significant effect (p<0.05) of ROR HEP construction and operation on the number of species. However, no statistically significant effects were detected on the other five metrics of community composition. The implications of these findings are discussed in this article and recommendations are made for best-practice study design for future fish community impact studies.

Impact resistant boron/aluminum composites for large fan blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oller, T. L.; Salemme, C. T.; Bowden, J. H.; Doble, G. S.; Melnyk, P.

1977-01-01

Blade-like specimens were subjected to static ballistic impact testing to determine their relative FOD impact resistance levels. It was determined that a plus or minus 15 deg layup exhibited good impact resistance. The design of a large solid boron/aluminum fan blade was conducted based on the FOD test results. The CF6 fan blade was used as a baseline for these design studies. The solid boron/aluminum fan blade design was used to fabricate two blades. This effort enabled the assessment of the scale up of existing blade manufacturing details for the fabrication of a large B/Al fan blade. Existing CF6 fan blade tooling was modified for use in fabricating these blades.

Environmental impacts of a large-scale incinerator with mixed MSW of high water content from a LCA perspective.

PubMed

Lou, Ziyang; Bilitewski, Bernd; Zhu, Nanwen; Chai, Xiaoli; Li, Bing; Zhao, Youcai

2015-04-01

Large-scale incinerators are applied widely as a result of the heavy burden of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated, while strong opposition is arising from the public living nearby. A large-scale working incineration plant of 1500 ton/day was chosen for evaluation using life cycle assessment. It was found that the corresponding human toxicity impacts via soil (HTs), human toxicity impacts via water (HTw) and human toxicity impacts via air (HTa) categories are 0.213, 2.171, and 0.012 personal equivalents (PE), and global warming (GW100) and nutrient enrichment (NE) impacts are 0.002 and 0.001 PE per ton of waste burned for this plant. Heavy metals in flue gas, such as Hg and Pb, are the two dominant contributors to the toxicity impact categories, and energy recovery could reduce the GW100 and NE greatly. The corresponding HTs, HTw and HTa decrease to 0.087, 0.911 and 0.008 PE, and GW100 turns into savings of -0.007 PE due to the increase of the heating value from 3935 to 5811 kJ/kg, if a trommel screener of 40 mm mesh size is used to pre-separate MSW. MSW sorting and the reduction of water content by physical pressure might be two promising pre-treatment methods to improve the combustion performance, and the application of stricter standards for leachate discharge and the flue gas purification process are two critical factors for improvement of the environmental profile identified in this work. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Large-scale 3D modeling of projectile impact damage in brittle plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seagraves, A.; Radovitzky, R.

2015-10-01

The damage and failure of brittle plates subjected to projectile impact is investigated through large-scale three-dimensional simulation using the DG/CZM approach introduced by Radovitzky et al. [Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 2011; 200(1-4), 326-344]. Two standard experimental setups are considered: first, we simulate edge-on impact experiments on Al2O3 tiles by Strassburger and Senf [Technical Report ARL-CR-214, Army Research Laboratory, 1995]. Qualitative and quantitative validation of the simulation results is pursued by direct comparison of simulations with experiments at different loading rates and good agreement is obtained. In the second example considered, we investigate the fracture patterns in normal impact of spheres on thin, unconfined ceramic plates over a wide range of loading rates. For both the edge-on and normal impact configurations, the full field description provided by the simulations is used to interpret the mechanisms underlying the crack propagation patterns and their strong dependence on loading rate.

Palms, peccaries and perturbations: widespread effects of small-scale disturbance in tropical forests

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Disturbance is an important process structuring ecosystems worldwide and has long been thought to be a significant driver of diversity and dynamics. In forests, most studies of disturbance have focused on large-scale disturbance such as hurricanes or tree-falls. However, smaller sub-canopy disturbances could also have significant impacts on community structure. One such sub-canopy disturbance in tropical forests is abscising leaves of large arborescent palm (Arececeae) trees. These leaves can weigh up to 15 kg and cause physical damage and mortality to juvenile plants. Previous studies examining this question suffered from the use of static data at small spatial scales. Here we use data from a large permanent forest plot combined with dynamic data on the survival and growth of > 66,000 individuals over a seven-year period to address whether falling palm fronds do impact neighboring seedling and sapling communities, or whether there is an interaction between the palms and peccaries rooting for fallen palm fruit in the same area as falling leaves. We tested the wider generalisation of these hypotheses by comparing seedling and sapling survival under fruiting and non-fruiting trees in another family, the Myristicaceae. Results We found a spatially-restricted but significant effect of large arborescent fruiting palms on the spatial structure, population dynamics and species diversity of neighbouring sapling and seedling communities. However, these effects were not found around slightly smaller non-fruiting palm trees, suggesting it is seed predators such as peccaries rather than falling leaves that impact on the communities around palm trees. Conversely, this hypothesis was not supported in data from other edible species, such as those in the family Myristicaceae. Conclusions Given the abundance of arborescent palm trees in Amazonian forests, it is reasonable to conclude that their presence does have a significant, if spatially-restricted, impact on juvenile plants, most likely on the survival and growth of seedlings and saplings damaged by foraging peccaries. Given the abundance of fruit produced by each palm, the widespread effects of these small-scale disturbances appear, over long time-scales, to cause directional changes in community structure at larger scales. PMID:22429883

Palms, peccaries and perturbations: widespread effects of small-scale disturbance in tropical forests.

PubMed

Queenborough, Simon A; Metz, Margaret R; Wiegand, Thorsten; Valencia, Renato

2012-03-19

Disturbance is an important process structuring ecosystems worldwide and has long been thought to be a significant driver of diversity and dynamics. In forests, most studies of disturbance have focused on large-scale disturbance such as hurricanes or tree-falls. However, smaller sub-canopy disturbances could also have significant impacts on community structure. One such sub-canopy disturbance in tropical forests is abscising leaves of large arborescent palm (Arececeae) trees. These leaves can weigh up to 15 kg and cause physical damage and mortality to juvenile plants. Previous studies examining this question suffered from the use of static data at small spatial scales. Here we use data from a large permanent forest plot combined with dynamic data on the survival and growth of > 66,000 individuals over a seven-year period to address whether falling palm fronds do impact neighboring seedling and sapling communities, or whether there is an interaction between the palms and peccaries rooting for fallen palm fruit in the same area as falling leaves. We tested the wider generalisation of these hypotheses by comparing seedling and sapling survival under fruiting and non-fruiting trees in another family, the Myristicaceae. We found a spatially-restricted but significant effect of large arborescent fruiting palms on the spatial structure, population dynamics and species diversity of neighbouring sapling and seedling communities. However, these effects were not found around slightly smaller non-fruiting palm trees, suggesting it is seed predators such as peccaries rather than falling leaves that impact on the communities around palm trees. Conversely, this hypothesis was not supported in data from other edible species, such as those in the family Myristicaceae. Given the abundance of arborescent palm trees in Amazonian forests, it is reasonable to conclude that their presence does have a significant, if spatially-restricted, impact on juvenile plants, most likely on the survival and growth of seedlings and saplings damaged by foraging peccaries. Given the abundance of fruit produced by each palm, the widespread effects of these small-scale disturbances appear, over long time-scales, to cause directional changes in community structure at larger scales.

On the large scale structure of X-ray background sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bi, H. G.; Meszaros, A.; Meszaros, P.

1991-01-01

The large scale clustering of the sources responsible for the X-ray background is discussed, under the assumption of a discrete origin. The formalism necessary for calculating the X-ray spatial fluctuations in the most general case where the source density contrast in structures varies with redshift is developed. A comparison of this with observational limits is useful for obtaining information concerning various galaxy formation scenarios. The calculations presented show that a varying density contrast has a small impact on the expected X-ray fluctuations. This strengthens and extends previous conclusions concerning the size and comoving density of large scale structures at redshifts 0.5 between 4.0.

Homogenization of Large-Scale Movement Models in Ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garlick, M.J.; Powell, J.A.; Hooten, M.B.; McFarlane, L.R.

2011-01-01

A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10-100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10-100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models. ?? 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

Leaky Integrate and Fire Neuron by Charge-Discharge Dynamics in Floating-Body MOSFET.

PubMed

Dutta, Sangya; Kumar, Vinay; Shukla, Aditya; Mohapatra, Nihar R; Ganguly, Udayan

2017-08-15

Neuro-biology inspired Spiking Neural Network (SNN) enables efficient learning and recognition tasks. To achieve a large scale network akin to biology, a power and area efficient electronic neuron is essential. Earlier, we had demonstrated an LIF neuron by a novel 4-terminal impact ionization based n+/p/n+ with an extended gate (gated-INPN) device by physics simulation. Excellent improvement in area and power compared to conventional analog circuit implementations was observed. In this paper, we propose and experimentally demonstrate a compact conventional 3-terminal partially depleted (PD) SOI- MOSFET (100 nm gate length) to replace the 4-terminal gated-INPN device. Impact ionization (II) induced floating body effect in SOI-MOSFET is used to capture LIF neuron behavior to demonstrate spiking frequency dependence on input. MHz operation enables attractive hardware acceleration compared to biology. Overall, conventional PD-SOI-CMOS technology enables very-large-scale-integration (VLSI) which is essential for biology scale (~10 11 neuron based) large neural networks.

Investigating large-scale secondary circulations within impact crater topographies in a refractive index-matched facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blois, Gianluca; Kim, Taehoon; Bristow, Nathan; Day, Mackenzie; Kocurek, Gary; Anderson, William; Christensen, Kenneth

2017-11-01

Impact craters, common large-scale topographic features on the surface of Mars, are circular depressions delimited by a sharp ridge. A variety of crater fill morphologies exist, suggesting that complex intracrater circulations affect their evolution. Some large craters (diameter >10 km), particularly at mid latitudes on Mars, exhibit a central mound surrounded by circular moat. Foremost among these examples is Gale crater, landing site of NASA's Curiosity rover, since large-scale climatic processes early in in the history of Mars are preserved in the stratigraphic record of the inner mound. Investigating the intracrater flow produced by large scale winds aloft Mars craters is key to a number of important scientific issues including ongoing research on Mars paleo-environmental reconstruction and the planning of future missions (these results must be viewed in conjunction with the affects of radial katabatibc flows, the importance of which is already established in preceding studies). In this work we consider a number of crater shapes inspired by Gale morphology, including idealized craters. Access to the flow field within such geometrically complex topography is achieved herein using a refractive index matched approach. Instantaneous velocity maps, using both planar and volumetric PIV techniques, are presented to elucidate complex three-dimensional flow within the crater. In addition, first- and second-order statistics will be discussed in the context of wind-driven (aeolian) excavation of crater fill.

High-Resolution Climate Data Visualization through GIS- and Web-based Data Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Huang, G.

2017-12-01

Sound decisions on climate change adaptation rely on an in-depth assessment of potential climate change impacts at regional and local scales, which usually requires finer resolution climate projections at both spatial and temporal scales. However, effective downscaling of global climate projections is practically difficult due to the lack of computational resources and/or long-term reference data. Although a large volume of downscaled climate data has been make available to the public, how to understand and interpret the large-volume climate data and how to make use of the data to drive impact assessment and adaptation studies are still challenging for both impact researchers and decision makers. Such difficulties have become major barriers preventing informed climate change adaptation planning at regional scales. Therefore, this research will explore new GIS- and web-based technologies to help visualize the large-volume regional climate data with high spatiotemporal resolutions. A user-friendly public data portal, named Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP, http://ccdp.network), will be established to allow intuitive and open access to high-resolution regional climate projections at local scales. The CCDP offers functions of visual representation through geospatial maps and data downloading for a variety of climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind) at multiple spatial resolutions (i.e., 25 - 50 km) and temporal resolutions (i.e., annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly). The vast amount of information the CCDP encompasses can provide a crucial basis for assessing impacts of climate change on local communities and ecosystems and for supporting better decision making under a changing climate.

Large-Scale Aerosol Modeling and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

deserts of the world: Arabian Gulf, Sea of Japan, China Sea , Mediterranean Sea , and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. NAAPS also accurately predicts the...fate of large-scale smoke and pollution plumes. With its global and continuous coverage, 1 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188...origin of dust plumes impacting naval operations in the Red Sea , Mediterranean, eastern Atlantic, Gulf of Guinea, Sea of Japan, Yellow Sea , and East

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson; Galbraith, Hector; Giesen, Kenneth M

2002-09-01

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Impact of spectral nudging on the downscaling of tropical cyclones in regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Suk-Jin; Lee, Dong-Kyou

2016-06-01

This study investigated the simulations of three months of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific using the Advanced Research WRF Model. In the control experiment (CTL), the TC frequency was considerably overestimated. Additionally, the tracks of some TCs tended to have larger radii of curvature and were shifted eastward. The large-scale environments of westerly monsoon flows and subtropical Pacific highs were unreasonably simulated. The overestimated frequency of TC formation was attributed to a strengthened westerly wind field in the southern quadrants of the TC center. In comparison with the experiment with the spectral nudging method, the strengthened wind speed was mainly modulated by large-scale flow that was greater than approximately 1000 km in the model domain. The spurious formation and undesirable tracks of TCs in the CTL were considerably improved by reproducing realistic large-scale atmospheric monsoon circulation with substantial adjustment between large-scale flow in the model domain and large-scale boundary forcing modified by the spectral nudging method. The realistic monsoon circulation took a vital role in simulating realistic TCs. It revealed that, in the downscaling from large-scale fields for regional climate simulations, scale interaction between model-generated regional features and forced large-scale fields should be considered, and spectral nudging is a desirable method in the downscaling method.

An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Bristol Bay watershed in southwestern Alaska supports the largest sockeye salmon fishery in the world, is home to 25 federally recognized tribal governments, and contains large mineral resources. The potential for large-scale mining activities in the watershed has raised concerns about the impact of mining on the sustainability of Bristol Bay’s world-class commercial, recreational and subsistence fisheries and the future of Alaska Native tribes in the watershed who have maintained a salmon-based culture and subsistence-based way of life for at least 4,000 years. The purpose of this assessment is to provide a characterization of the biological and mineral resources of the Bristol Bay watershed, increase understanding of the potential impacts of large-scale mining on the region’s fish resources, and inform future government decisions related to protecting and maintaining the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the watershed. It will also serve as a technical resource for the public, tribes, and governments who must consider how best to address the challenges of mining and ecological protection in the Bristol Bay watershed. The purpose of this assessment is to understand how future large-scale mining may affect water quality and the Bristol Bay salmon fisheries, which includes the largest wild sockeye salmon fishery in the world. Bristol Bay, Alaska, is home to a salmon fishery that is of significant economic and subsistence value to the peopl

Large scale food retailing as an intervention for diet and health: quasi-experimental evaluation of a natural experiment.

PubMed

Cummins, Steven; Petticrew, Mark; Higgins, Cassie; Findlay, Anne; Sparks, Leigh

2005-12-01

To assess the effect on fruit and vegetable consumption, self reported, and psychological health of a "natural experiment"-the introduction of large scale food retailing in a deprived Scottish community. Prospective quasi-experimental design comparing baseline and follow up data in an "intervention" community with a matched "comparison" community in Glasgow, UK. 412 men and women aged 16 or over for whom follow up data on fruit and vegetable consumption and GHQ-12 were available. Fruit and vegetable consumption in portions per day, poor self reported health, and poor psychological health (GHQ-12). Adjusting for age, sex, educational attainment, and employment status there was no population impact on daily fruit and vegetable consumption, self reported, and psychological health. There was some evidence for a net reduction in the prevalence of poor psychological health for residents who directly engaged with the intervention. Government policy has advocated using large scale food retailing as a social intervention to improve diet and health in poor communities. In contrast with a previous uncontrolled study this study did not find evidence for a net intervention effect on fruit and vegetable consumption, although there was evidence for an improvement in psychological health for those who directly engaged with the intervention. Although definitive conclusions about the effect of large scale retailing on diet and health in deprived communities cannot be drawn from non-randomised controlled study designs, evaluations of the impacts of natural experiments may offer the best opportunity to generate evidence about the health impacts of retail interventions in poor communities.

Cumulative Damage in Strength-Dominated Collisions of Rocky Asteroids: Rubble Piles and Brick Piles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housen, Kevin

2009-01-01

Laboratory impact experiments were performed to investigate the conditions that produce large-scale damage in rock targets. Aluminum cylinders (6.3 mm diameter) impacted basalt cylinders (69 mm diameter) at speeds ranging from 0.7 to 2.0 km/s. Diagnostics included measurements of the largest fragment mass, velocities of the largest remnant and large fragments ejected from the periphery of the target, and X-ray computed tomography imaging to inspect some of the impacted targets for internal damage. Significant damage to the target occurred when the kinetic energy per unit target mass exceeded roughly 1/4 of the energy required for catastrophic shattering (where the target is reduced to one-half its original mass). Scaling laws based on a rate-dependent strength were developed that provide a basis for extrapolating the results to larger strength-dominated collisions. The threshold specific energy for widespread damage was found to scale with event size in the same manner as that for catastrophic shattering. Therefore, the factor of four difference between the two thresholds observed in the lab also applies to larger collisions. The scaling laws showed that for a sequence of collisions that are similar in that they produce the same ratio of largest fragment mass to original target mass, the fragment velocities decrease with increasing event size. As a result, rocky asteroids a couple hundred meters in diameter should retain their large ejecta fragments in a jumbled rubble-pile state. For somewhat larger bodies, the ejection velocities are sufficiently low that large fragments are essentially retained in place, possibly forming ordered "brick-pile" structures.

Impact decapitation from laboratory to basin scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.; Gault, D. E.

1991-01-01

Although vertical hypervelocity impacts result in the annihilation (melting/vaporization) of the projectile, oblique impacts (less than 15 deg) fundamentally change the partitioning of energy with fragments as large as 10 percent of the original projectile surviving. Laboratory experiments reveal that both ductile and brittle projectiles produce very similar results where limiting disruption depends on stresses proportional to the vertical velocity component. Failure of the projectile at laboratory impact velocities (6 km/s) is largely controlled by stresses established before the projectile has penetrated a significant distance into the target. The planetary surface record exhibits numerous examples of oblique impacts with evidence fir projectile failure and downrange sibling collisions.

The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Muller, Christoff

2015-01-01

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).

Impact of Utility-Scale Distributed Wind on Transmission-Level System Operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Hodge, B. M.

2014-09-01

This report presents a new renewable integration study that aims to assess the potential for adding distributed wind to the current power system with minimal or no upgrades to the distribution or transmission electricity systems. It investigates the impacts of integrating large amounts of utility-scale distributed wind power on bulk system operations by performing a case study on the power system of the Independent System Operator-New England (ISO-NE).

The impact of stellar feedback on the density and velocity structure of the interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grisdale, Kearn; Agertz, Oscar; Romeo, Alessandro B.; Renaud, Florent; Read, Justin I.

2017-04-01

We study the impact of stellar feedback in shaping the density and velocity structure of neutral hydrogen (H I) in disc galaxies. For our analysis, we carry out ˜4.6 pc resolution N-body+adaptive mesh refinement hydrodynamic simulations of isolated galaxies, set up to mimic a Milky Way and a Large and Small Magellanic Cloud. We quantify the density and velocity structure of the interstellar medium using power spectra and compare the simulated galaxies to observed H I in local spiral galaxies from THINGS (The H I Nearby Galaxy Survey). Our models with stellar feedback give an excellent match to the observed THINGS H I density power spectra. We find that kinetic energy power spectra in feedback-regulated galaxies, regardless of galaxy mass and size, show scalings in excellent agreement with supersonic turbulence (E(k) ∝ k-2) on scales below the thickness of the H I layer. We show that feedback influences the gas density field, and drives gas turbulence, up to large (kpc) scales. This is in stark contrast to density fields generated by large-scale gravity-only driven turbulence. We conclude that the neutral gas content of galaxies carries signatures of stellar feedback on all scales.

State of the Art in Large-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ochsner, Tyson E.; Cosh, Michael Harold; Cuenca, Richard H.; Dorigo, Wouter; Draper, Clara S.; Hagimoto, Yutaka; Kerr, Yan H.; Larson, Kristine M.; Njoku, Eni Gerald; Small, Eric E.;

Multi-Scale Models for the Scale Interaction of Organized Tropical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qiu

Assessing the upscale impact of organized tropical convection from small spatial and temporal scales is a research imperative, not only for having a better understanding of the multi-scale structures of dynamical and convective fields in the tropics, but also for eventually helping in the design of new parameterization strategies to improve the next-generation global climate models. Here self-consistent multi-scale models are derived systematically by following the multi-scale asymptotic methods and used to describe the hierarchical structures of tropical atmospheric flows. The advantages of using these multi-scale models lie in isolating the essential components of multi-scale interaction and providing assessment of the upscale impact of the small-scale fluctuations onto the large-scale mean flow through eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature in a transparent fashion. Specifically, this thesis includes three research projects about multi-scale interaction of organized tropical convection, involving tropical flows at different scaling regimes and utilizing different multi-scale models correspondingly. Inspired by the observed variability of tropical convection on multiple temporal scales, including daily and intraseasonal time scales, the goal of the first project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle on the planetary-scale circulation such as the Hadley cell. As an extension of the first project, the goal of the second project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the third project, the goals are to simulate the baroclinic aspects of the ITCZ breakdown and assess its upscale impact on the planetary-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific. These simple multi-scale models should be useful to understand the scale interaction of organized tropical convection and help improve the parameterization of unresolved processes in global climate models.

Sizing up the planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meszaros, S. P.

1985-01-01

Visual, scaled comparisons are made among prominent volcanic, tectonic, crater and impact basin features photographed on various planets and moons in the solar system. The volcanic formation Olympus Mons, on Mars, is 27 km tall, while Io volcanic plumes reach 200-300 km altitude. Valles Marineris, a tectonic fault on Mars, is several thousand kilometers long, and the Ithasa Chasma on the Saturnian moon Tethys extends two-thirds the circumference of the moon. Craters on the Saturnian moons Tethys and Mimas are large enough to suggest a collision by objects which almost shattered the planetoids. Large meteorite impacts may leave large impact basins or merely ripples, such as found on Callisto, whose icy surface could not support high mountains formed by giant body impacts.

The impact of ordinate scaling on the visual analysis of single-case data.

PubMed

Dart, Evan H; Radley, Keith C

2017-08-01

Visual analysis is the primary method for detecting the presence of treatment effects in graphically displayed single-case data and it is often referred to as the "gold standard." Although researchers have developed standards for the application of visual analysis (e.g., Horner et al., 2005), over- and underestimation of effect size magnitude is not uncommon among analysts. Several characteristics have been identified as potential contributors to these errors; however, researchers have largely focused on characteristics of the data itself (e.g., autocorrelation), paying less attention to characteristics of the graphic display which are largely in control of the analyst (e.g., ordinate scaling). The current study investigated the impact that differences in ordinate scaling, a graphic display characteristic, had on experts' accuracy in judgments regarding the magnitude of effect present in single-case percentage data. 32 participants were asked to evaluate eight ABAB data sets (2 each presenting null, small, moderate, and large effects) along with three iterations of each (32 graphs in total) in which only the ordinate scale was manipulated. Results suggest that raters are less accurate in their detection of treatment effects as the ordinate scale is constricted. Additionally, raters were more likely to overestimate the size of a treatment effect when the ordinate scale was constricted. Copyright © 2017 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parameterization of plume chemistry into large-scale atmospheric models: Application to aircraft NOx emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cariolle, D.; Caro, D.; Paoli, R.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; CuéNot, B.; Cozic, A.; Paugam, R.

2009-10-01

A method is presented to parameterize the impact of the nonlinear chemical reactions occurring in the plume generated by concentrated NOx sources into large-scale models. The resulting plume parameterization is implemented into global models and used to evaluate the impact of aircraft emissions on the atmospheric chemistry. Compared to previous approaches that rely on corrected emissions or corrective factors to account for the nonlinear chemical effects, the present parameterization is based on the representation of the plume effects via a fuel tracer and a characteristic lifetime during which the nonlinear interactions between species are important and operate via rates of conversion for the NOx species and an effective reaction rates for O3. The implementation of this parameterization insures mass conservation and allows the transport of emissions at high concentrations in plume form by the model dynamics. Results from the model simulations of the impact on atmospheric ozone of aircraft NOx emissions are in rather good agreement with previous work. It is found that ozone production is decreased by 10 to 25% in the Northern Hemisphere with the largest effects in the north Atlantic flight corridor when the plume effects on the global-scale chemistry are taken into account. These figures are consistent with evaluations made with corrected emissions, but regional differences are noticeable owing to the possibility offered by this parameterization to transport emitted species in plume form prior to their dilution at large scale. This method could be further improved to make the parameters used by the parameterization function of the local temperature, humidity and turbulence properties diagnosed by the large-scale model. Further extensions of the method can also be considered to account for multistep dilution regimes during the plume dissipation. Furthermore, the present parameterization can be adapted to other types of point-source NOx emissions that have to be introduced in large-scale models, such as ship exhausts, provided that the plume life cycle, the type of emissions, and the major reactions involved in the nonlinear chemical systems can be determined with sufficient accuracy.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-01-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars' Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-04-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Simulation of nitrate reduction in groundwater - An upscaling approach from small catchments to the Baltic Sea basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, A. L.; Donnelly, C.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Karlsson, I. B.

2018-01-01

This paper describes a modeling approach proposed to simulate the impact of local-scale, spatially targeted N-mitigation measures for the Baltic Sea Basin. Spatially targeted N-regulations aim at exploiting the considerable spatial differences in the natural N-reduction taking place in groundwater and surface water. While such measures can be simulated using local-scale physically-based catchment models, use of such detailed models for the 1.8 million km2 Baltic Sea basin is not feasible due to constraints on input data and computing power. Large-scale models that are able to simulate the Baltic Sea basin, on the other hand, do not have adequate spatial resolution to simulate some of the field-scale measures. Our methodology combines knowledge and results from two local-scale physically-based MIKE SHE catchment models, the large-scale and more conceptual E-HYPE model, and auxiliary data in order to enable E-HYPE to simulate how spatially targeted regulation of agricultural practices may affect N-loads to the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the use of E-HYPE with this upscaling methodology enables the simulation of the impact on N-loads of applying a spatially targeted regulation at the Baltic Sea basin scale to the correct order-of-magnitude. The E-HYPE model together with the upscaling methodology therefore provides a sound basis for large-scale policy analysis; however, we do not expect it to be sufficiently accurate to be useful for the detailed design of local-scale measures.

The large-scale environment from cosmological simulations - I. The baryonic cosmic web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Weiguang; Knebe, Alexander; Yepes, Gustavo; Yang, Xiaohu; Borgani, Stefano; Kang, Xi; Power, Chris; Staveley-Smith, Lister

2018-01-01

Using a series of cosmological simulations that includes one dark-matter-only (DM-only) run, one gas cooling-star formation-supernova feedback (CSF) run and one that additionally includes feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGNs), we classify the large-scale structures with both a velocity-shear-tensor code (VWEB) and a tidal-tensor code (PWEB). We find that the baryonic processes have almost no impact on large-scale structures - at least not when classified using aforementioned techniques. More importantly, our results confirm that the gas component alone can be used to infer the filamentary structure of the universe practically un-biased, which could be applied to cosmology constraints. In addition, the gas filaments are classified with its velocity (VWEB) and density (PWEB) fields, which can theoretically connect to the radio observations, such as H I surveys. This will help us to bias-freely link the radio observations with dark matter distributions at large scale.

Combining paleo-data and modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of megafauna extinctions on woody vegetation

PubMed Central

Bakker, Elisabeth S.; Gill, Jacquelyn L.; Johnson, Christopher N.; Vera, Frans W. M.; Sandom, Christopher J.; Asner, Gregory P.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2016-01-01

Until recently in Earth history, very large herbivores (mammoths, ground sloths, diprotodons, and many others) occurred in most of the World’s terrestrial ecosystems, but the majority have gone extinct as part of the late-Quaternary extinctions. How has this large-scale removal of large herbivores affected landscape structure and ecosystem functioning? In this review, we combine paleo-data with information from modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of large herbivores (and their disappearance) on woody species, landscape structure, and ecosystem functions. In modern landscapes characterized by intense herbivory, woody plants can persist by defending themselves or by association with defended species, can persist by growing in places that are physically inaccessible to herbivores, or can persist where high predator activity limits foraging by herbivores. At the landscape scale, different herbivore densities and assemblages may result in dynamic gradients in woody cover. The late-Quaternary extinctions were natural experiments in large-herbivore removal; the paleoecological record shows evidence of widespread changes in community composition and ecosystem structure and function, consistent with modern exclosure experiments. We propose a conceptual framework that describes the impact of large herbivores on woody plant abundance mediated by herbivore diversity and density, predicting that herbivore suppression of woody plants is strongest where herbivore diversity is high. We conclude that the decline of large herbivores induces major alterations in landscape structure and ecosystem functions. PMID:26504223

Impacts of large herbivorous mammals on bird diversity and abundance in an African savanna.

PubMed

Ogada, D L; Gadd, M E; Ostfeld, R S; Young, T P; Keesing, F

2008-05-01

Large native mammals are declining dramatically in abundance across Africa, with strong impacts on both plant and animal community dynamics. However, the net effects of this large-scale loss in megafauna are poorly understood because responses by several ecologically important groups have not been assessed. We used a large-scale, replicated exclusion experiment in Kenya to investigate the impacts of different guilds of native and domestic large herbivores on the diversity and abundance of birds over a 2-year period. The exclusion of large herbivorous native mammals, including zebras (Equus burchelli), giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis), elephants (Loxodonta africana), and buffalos (Syncerus caffer), increased the diversity of birds by 30%. Most of this effect was attributable to the absence of elephants and giraffes; these megaherbivores reduced both the canopy area of subdominant woody vegetation and the biomass of ground-dwelling arthropods, and both of these factors were good predictors of the diversity of birds. The canopy area of subdominant trees was positively correlated with the diversity of granivorous birds. The biomass of ground-dwelling arthropods was positively correlated with the diversity of insectivorous birds. Our results suggest that most native large herbivores are compatible with an abundant and diverse bird fauna, as are cattle if they are at a relatively low stocking rate. Future research should focus on determining the spatial arrangements and densities of megaherbivores that will optimize both megaherbivore abundance and bird diversity.

Combining paleo-data and modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of megafauna extinctions on woody vegetation.

PubMed

Bakker, Elisabeth S; Gill, Jacquelyn L; Johnson, Christopher N; Vera, Frans W M; Sandom, Christopher J; Asner, Gregory P; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2016-01-26

Until recently in Earth history, very large herbivores (mammoths, ground sloths, diprotodons, and many others) occurred in most of the World's terrestrial ecosystems, but the majority have gone extinct as part of the late-Quaternary extinctions. How has this large-scale removal of large herbivores affected landscape structure and ecosystem functioning? In this review, we combine paleo-data with information from modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of large herbivores (and their disappearance) on woody species, landscape structure, and ecosystem functions. In modern landscapes characterized by intense herbivory, woody plants can persist by defending themselves or by association with defended species, can persist by growing in places that are physically inaccessible to herbivores, or can persist where high predator activity limits foraging by herbivores. At the landscape scale, different herbivore densities and assemblages may result in dynamic gradients in woody cover. The late-Quaternary extinctions were natural experiments in large-herbivore removal; the paleoecological record shows evidence of widespread changes in community composition and ecosystem structure and function, consistent with modern exclosure experiments. We propose a conceptual framework that describes the impact of large herbivores on woody plant abundance mediated by herbivore diversity and density, predicting that herbivore suppression of woody plants is strongest where herbivore diversity is high. We conclude that the decline of large herbivores induces major alterations in landscape structure and ecosystem functions.

Study of Potential Cost Reductions Resulting from Super-Large-Scale Manufacturing of PV Modules: Final Subcontract Report, 7 August 2003--30 September 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keshner, M. S.; Arya, R.

2004-10-01

Hewlett Packard has created a design for a ''Solar City'' factory that will process 30 million sq. meters of glass panels per year and produce 2.1-3.6 GW of solar panels per year-100x the volume of a typical, thin-film, solar panel manufacturer in 2004. We have shown that with a reasonable selection of materials, and conservative assumptions, this ''Solar City'' can produce solar panels and hit the price target of $1.00 per peak watt (6.5x-8.5x lower than prices in 2004) as the total price for a complete and installed rooftop (or ground mounted) solar energy system. This breakthrough in the pricemore » of solar energy comes without the need for any significant new invention. It comes entirely from the manufacturing scale of a large plant and the cost savings inherent in operating at such a large manufacturing scale. We expect that further optimizations from these simple designs will lead to further improvements in cost. The manufacturing process and cost depend on the choice for the active layer that converts sunlight into electricity. The efficiency by which sunlight is converted into electricity can range from 7% to 15%. This parameter has a large effect on the overall price per watt. There are other impacts, as well, and we have attempted to capture them without creating undue distractions. Our primary purpose is to demonstrate the impact of large-scale manufacturing. This impact is largely independent of the choice of active layer. It is not our purpose to compare the pro's and con's for various types of active layers. Significant improvements in cost per watt can also come from scientific advances in active layers that lead to higher efficiency. But, again, our focus is on manufacturing gains and not on the potential advances in the basic technology.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallarno, George; Rogers, James H; Maxwell, Don E

The high computational capability of graphics processing units (GPUs) is enabling and driving the scientific discovery process at large-scale. The world s second fastest supercomputer for open science, Titan, has more than 18,000 GPUs that computational scientists use to perform scientific simu- lations and data analysis. Understanding of GPU reliability characteristics, however, is still in its nascent stage since GPUs have only recently been deployed at large-scale. This paper presents a detailed study of GPU errors and their impact on system operations and applications, describing experiences with the 18,688 GPUs on the Titan supercom- puter as well as lessons learnedmore » in the process of efficient operation of GPUs at scale. These experiences are helpful to HPC sites which already have large-scale GPU clusters or plan to deploy GPUs in the future.« less

Public attitudes toward programs of large-scale technological changes: Some reflections and policy prescriptions, appendix E

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shostak, A. B.

1973-01-01

The question of how ready the public is for the implementation of large-scale programs of technological change is considered. Four vital aspects of the issue are discussed which include: (1) the ways in which the public mis-perceives the change process, (2) the ways in which recent history impacts on public attitudes, (3) the ways in which the public divides among itself, and (4) the fundamentals of public attitudes towards change. It is concluded that nothing is so critical in the 1970's to securing public approval for large-scale planned change projects as is securing the approval by change-agents of the public.

Imprint of non-linear effects on HI intensity mapping on large scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Umeh, Obinna, E-mail: umeobinna@gmail.com

Intensity mapping of the HI brightness temperature provides a unique way of tracing large-scale structures of the Universe up to the largest possible scales. This is achieved by using a low angular resolution radio telescopes to detect emission line from cosmic neutral Hydrogen in the post-reionization Universe. We use general relativistic perturbation theory techniques to derive for the first time the full expression for the HI brightness temperature up to third order in perturbation theory without making any plane-parallel approximation. We use this result and the renormalization prescription for biased tracers to study the impact of nonlinear effects on themore » power spectrum of HI brightness temperature both in real and redshift space. We show how mode coupling at nonlinear order due to nonlinear bias parameters and redshift space distortion terms modulate the power spectrum on large scales. The large scale modulation may be understood to be due to the effective bias parameter and effective shot noise.« less

Imprint of non-linear effects on HI intensity mapping on large scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umeh, Obinna

2017-06-01

Intensity mapping of the HI brightness temperature provides a unique way of tracing large-scale structures of the Universe up to the largest possible scales. This is achieved by using a low angular resolution radio telescopes to detect emission line from cosmic neutral Hydrogen in the post-reionization Universe. We use general relativistic perturbation theory techniques to derive for the first time the full expression for the HI brightness temperature up to third order in perturbation theory without making any plane-parallel approximation. We use this result and the renormalization prescription for biased tracers to study the impact of nonlinear effects on the power spectrum of HI brightness temperature both in real and redshift space. We show how mode coupling at nonlinear order due to nonlinear bias parameters and redshift space distortion terms modulate the power spectrum on large scales. The large scale modulation may be understood to be due to the effective bias parameter and effective shot noise.

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe.

PubMed

Ceglar, Andrej; Turco, Marco; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2017-06-15

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Impact Detection for Characterization of Complex Multiphase Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Wai Hong Ronald; Urzay, Javier; Mani, Ali; Moin, Parviz

2016-11-01

Multiphase flows often involve a wide range of impact events, such as liquid droplets impinging on a liquid pool or gas bubbles coalescing in a liquid medium. These events contribute to a myriad of large-scale phenomena, including breaking waves on ocean surfaces. As impacts between surfaces necessarily occur at isolated points, numerical simulations of impact events will require the resolution of molecular scales near the impact points for accurate modeling. This can be prohibitively expensive unless subgrid impact and breakup models are formulated to capture the effects of the interactions. The first step in a large-eddy simulation (LES) based computational methodology for complex multiphase flows like air-sea interactions requires effective detection of these impact events. The starting point of this work is a collision detection algorithm for structured grids on a coupled level set / volume of fluid (CLSVOF) solver adapted from an earlier algorithm for cloth animations that triangulates the interface with the marching cubes method. We explore the extension of collision detection to a geometric VOF solver and to unstructured grids. Supported by ONR/A*STAR. Agency of Science, Technology and Research, Singapore; Office of Naval Research, USA.

Validating Bayesian truth serum in large-scale online human experiments.

PubMed

Frank, Morgan R; Cebrian, Manuel; Pickard, Galen; Rahwan, Iyad

2017-01-01

Bayesian truth serum (BTS) is an exciting new method for improving honesty and information quality in multiple-choice survey, but, despite the method's mathematical reliance on large sample sizes, existing literature about BTS only focuses on small experiments. Combined with the prevalence of online survey platforms, such as Amazon's Mechanical Turk, which facilitate surveys with hundreds or thousands of participants, BTS must be effective in large-scale experiments for BTS to become a readily accepted tool in real-world applications. We demonstrate that BTS quantifiably improves honesty in large-scale online surveys where the "honest" distribution of answers is known in expectation on aggregate. Furthermore, we explore a marketing application where "honest" answers cannot be known, but find that BTS treatment impacts the resulting distributions of answers.

Validating Bayesian truth serum in large-scale online human experiments

PubMed Central

Frank, Morgan R.; Cebrian, Manuel; Pickard, Galen; Rahwan, Iyad

2017-01-01

Bayesian truth serum (BTS) is an exciting new method for improving honesty and information quality in multiple-choice survey, but, despite the method’s mathematical reliance on large sample sizes, existing literature about BTS only focuses on small experiments. Combined with the prevalence of online survey platforms, such as Amazon’s Mechanical Turk, which facilitate surveys with hundreds or thousands of participants, BTS must be effective in large-scale experiments for BTS to become a readily accepted tool in real-world applications. We demonstrate that BTS quantifiably improves honesty in large-scale online surveys where the “honest” distribution of answers is known in expectation on aggregate. Furthermore, we explore a marketing application where “honest” answers cannot be known, but find that BTS treatment impacts the resulting distributions of answers. PMID:28494000

Band gaps and localization of surface water waves over large-scale sand waves with random fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Li, Yan; Shao, Hao; Zhong, Yaozhao; Zhang, Sai; Zhao, Zongxi

2012-06-01

Band structure and wave localization are investigated for sea surface water waves over large-scale sand wave topography. Sand wave height, sand wave width, water depth, and water width between adjacent sand waves have significant impact on band gaps. Random fluctuations of sand wave height, sand wave width, and water depth induce water wave localization. However, random water width produces a perfect transmission tunnel of water waves at a certain frequency so that localization does not occur no matter how large a disorder level is applied. Together with theoretical results, the field experimental observations in the Taiwan Bank suggest band gap and wave localization as the physical mechanism of sea surface water wave propagating over natural large-scale sand waves.

Asteroid Impact Deflection and Assessment (AIDA) mission - Full-Scale Modeling and Simulation of Ejecta Evolution and Fates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahnestock, Eugene G.; Yu, Yang; Hamilton, Douglas P.; Schwartz, Stephen; Stickle, Angela; Miller, Paul L.; Cheng, Andy F.; Michel, Patrick; AIDA Impact Simulation Working Group

2016-10-01

The proposed Asteroid Impact Deflection and Assessment (AIDA) mission includes NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), whose impact with the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid 65803 Didymos is expected to liberate large amounts of ejecta. We present efforts within the AIDA Impact Simulation Working Group to comprehensively simulate the behavior of this impact ejecta as it moves through and exits the system. Group members at JPL, OCA, and UMD have been working largely independently, developing their own strategies and methodologies. Ejecta initial conditions may be imported from output of hydrocode impact simulations or generated from crater scaling laws derived from point-source explosion models. We started with the latter approach, using reasonable assumptions for the secondary's density, porosity, surface cohesive strength, and vanishingly small net gravitational/rotational surface acceleration. We adopted DART's planned size, mass, closing velocity, and impact geometry for the cratering event. Using independent N-Body codes, we performed Monte Carlo integration of ejecta particles sampled over reasonable particle size ranges, and over launch locations within the crater footprint. In some cases we scaled the number of integrated particles in various size bins to the estimated number of particles consistent with a realistic size-frequency distribution. Dynamical models used for the particle integration varied, but all included full gravity potential of both primary and secondary, the solar tide, and solar radiation pressure (accounting for shadowing). We present results for the proportions of ejecta reaching ultimate fates of escape, return impact on the secondary, and transfer impact onto the primary. We also present the time history of reaching those outcomes, i.e., ejecta clearing timescales, and the size-frequency distribution of remaining ejecta at given post-impact durations. We find large numbers of particles remain in the system for several weeks after impact. Clearing timescales are nonlinearly dependent on particle size as expected, such that only the largest ejecta persist longest. We find results are strongly dependent on the local surface geometry at the modeled impact locations.

Remote analysis of biological invasion and the impact of enemy release

Treesearch

James R. Kellner; Gregory P. Asner; Kealoha M. Kinney; Scott R. Loarie; David E. Knapp; Ty Kennedy-Bowdoin; Erin J. Questad; Susan Cordell; Jarrod M. Thaxton

2011-01-01

Escape from natural enemies is a widely held generalization for the success of exotic plants. We conducted a large-scale experiment in Hawaii (USA) to quantify impacts of ungulate removal on plant growth and performance, and to test whether elimination of an exotic generalist herbivore facilitated exotic success. Assessment of impacted and control sites before and...

Analysis of Large-Scale Resurfacing Processes on Mercury: Mapping the Derain (H-10) Quadrangle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitten, J. L.; Ostrach, L. R.; Fassett, C. I.

2018-05-01

The Derain (H-10) Quadrangle of Mercury contains a large region of "average" crustal materials, with minimal smooth plains and basin ejecta, allowing the relative contribution of volcanic and impact processes to be assessed through geologic mapping.

Mercury's Internal Magnetic Field: Results from MESSENGER's Search for Remanent Crustal Magnetization Associated with Impact Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purucker, M. E.; Johnson, C. L.; Nicholas, J. B.; Philpott, L. C.; Korth, H.; Anderson, B. J.; Head, J. W., III; Phillips, R. J.; Solomon, S. C.

2014-12-01

Magnetic field measurements obtained by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft in orbit around Mercury have entered a new phase since April 2014, with periapsis altitudes below 200 km. MESSENGER is now obtaining magnetic profiles across large impact features at altitudes less than the horizontal scale of those features. We use data from this latest phase to investigate evidence for remanent crustal magnetization specifically associated with impact basins and large craters. The spatial resolution of magnetic field measurements for investigating crustal magnetization is approximately equal to the altitude of the observations. We focus on large impact features because their relative ages provide a powerful chronological tool for interpreting any associated magnetic signatures. We examine profiles across large impact basins such as Caloris, Shakespeare, Budh-Sobkou and Goethe. For example, coverage over Caloris during the last year of the mission will be largely at night and will comprise 18 profiles with altitudes between 125 and 200 km and 12 profiles with altitudes between 50 and 125 km over the northern part of the basin. We use large-scale magnetospheric models developed with MESSENGER data to remove contributions from the offset axial dipole, magnetopause, and magnetotail. The residual magnetic fields above 200 km are still dominated by poorly understood magnetospheric fields such as those from the cusp and from Birkeland currents. We empirically average, or exclude observations from these local times, in order to search for repeatable internal field signals. We use local basis functions such as equivalent source dipoles, applied with regularization tools, in order to map the altitude-normalized magnetic field from internal sources. These internal sources may comprise both crustal and core contributions, and we use the information from the along-track magnetic gradient in order to separate these contributions.

Extratropical Respones to Amazon Deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badger, A.; Dirmeyer, P.

2014-12-01

Land-use change (LUC) is known to impact local climate conditions through modifications of land-atmosphere interactions. Large-scale LUC, such as Amazon deforestation, could have a significant effect on the local and regional climates. The question remains as to what the global impact of large-scale LUC could be, as previous modeling studies have shown non-local responses due to Amazon deforestation. A common shortcoming in many previous modeling studies is the use of prescribed ocean conditions, which can act as a boundary condition to dampen the global response with respect to changes in the mean and variability. Using fully coupled modeling simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.0, the Amazon rainforest has been replaced with a distribution of representative tropical crops. Through the modifications of local land-atmosphere interactions, a significant change in the region, both at the surface and throughout the atmosphere, can be quantified. Accompanying these local changes are significant changes to the atmospheric circulation across all scales, thus modifying regional climates in other locales. Notable impacts include significant changes in precipitation, surface fluxes, basin-wide sea surface temperatures and ENSO behavior.

Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2013-01-01

Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between them, demonstrating that the seasonal winter temperature distributions over East Asia are substantially explained by these four large-scale circulation impacts.

Domain-Adapted Convolutional Networks for Satellite Image Classification: A Large-Scale Interactive Learning Workflow

DOE PAGES

Lunga, Dalton D.; Yang, Hsiuhan Lexie; Reith, Andrew E.; ...

2018-02-06

Satellite imagery often exhibits large spatial extent areas that encompass object classes with considerable variability. This often limits large-scale model generalization with machine learning algorithms. Notably, acquisition conditions, including dates, sensor position, lighting condition, and sensor types, often translate into class distribution shifts introducing complex nonlinear factors and hamper the potential impact of machine learning classifiers. Here, this article investigates the challenge of exploiting satellite images using convolutional neural networks (CNN) for settlement classification where the class distribution shifts are significant. We present a large-scale human settlement mapping workflow based-off multiple modules to adapt a pretrained CNN to address themore » negative impact of distribution shift on classification performance. To extend a locally trained classifier onto large spatial extents areas we introduce several submodules: First, a human-in-the-loop element for relabeling of misclassified target domain samples to generate representative examples for model adaptation; second, an efficient hashing module to minimize redundancy and noisy samples from the mass-selected examples; and third, a novel relevance ranking module to minimize the dominance of source example on the target domain. The workflow presents a novel and practical approach to achieve large-scale domain adaptation with binary classifiers that are based-off CNN features. Experimental evaluations are conducted on areas of interest that encompass various image characteristics, including multisensors, multitemporal, and multiangular conditions. Domain adaptation is assessed on source–target pairs through the transfer loss and transfer ratio metrics to illustrate the utility of the workflow.« less

Domain-Adapted Convolutional Networks for Satellite Image Classification: A Large-Scale Interactive Learning Workflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lunga, Dalton D.; Yang, Hsiuhan Lexie; Reith, Andrew E.

Satellite imagery often exhibits large spatial extent areas that encompass object classes with considerable variability. This often limits large-scale model generalization with machine learning algorithms. Notably, acquisition conditions, including dates, sensor position, lighting condition, and sensor types, often translate into class distribution shifts introducing complex nonlinear factors and hamper the potential impact of machine learning classifiers. Here, this article investigates the challenge of exploiting satellite images using convolutional neural networks (CNN) for settlement classification where the class distribution shifts are significant. We present a large-scale human settlement mapping workflow based-off multiple modules to adapt a pretrained CNN to address themore » negative impact of distribution shift on classification performance. To extend a locally trained classifier onto large spatial extents areas we introduce several submodules: First, a human-in-the-loop element for relabeling of misclassified target domain samples to generate representative examples for model adaptation; second, an efficient hashing module to minimize redundancy and noisy samples from the mass-selected examples; and third, a novel relevance ranking module to minimize the dominance of source example on the target domain. The workflow presents a novel and practical approach to achieve large-scale domain adaptation with binary classifiers that are based-off CNN features. Experimental evaluations are conducted on areas of interest that encompass various image characteristics, including multisensors, multitemporal, and multiangular conditions. Domain adaptation is assessed on source–target pairs through the transfer loss and transfer ratio metrics to illustrate the utility of the workflow.« less

Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

A Unified Theory of Impact Crises and Mass Extinctions: Quantitative Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, Michael R.; Haggerty, Bruce M.; Pagano, Thomas C.

1997-01-01

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting of large-body impacts on the Earth derive from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing large-scale environmental disasters, predict that impacts of objects greater than or equal to 5 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10 (exp 7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of greater than or equal to 10 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10(exp 8) Mt Events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10 (exp 6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record.

Use of controlled dynamic impacts on hierarchically structured seismically hazardous faults for seismically safe relaxation of shear stresses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruzhich, Valery V.; Psakhie, Sergey G.; Levina, Elena A.; Shilko, Evgeny V.; Grigoriev, Alexandr S.

2017-12-01

In the paper we briefly outline the experience in forecasting catastrophic earthquakes and the general problems in ensuring seismic safety. The purpose of our long-term research is the development and improvement of the methods of man-caused impacts on large-scale fault segments to safely reduce the negative effect of seismodynamic failure. Various laboratory and large-scale field experiments were carried out in the segments of tectonic faults in Baikal rift zone and in main cracks in block-structured ice cove of Lake Baikal using the developed measuring systems and special software for identification and treatment of deformation response of faulty segments to man-caused impacts. The results of the study let us to ground the necessity of development of servo-controlled technologies, which are able to provide changing the shear resistance and deformation regime of fault zone segments by applying vibrational and pulse triggering impacts. We suppose that the use of triggering impacts in highly stressed segments of active faults will promote transferring the geodynamic state of these segments from a metastable to a more stable and safe state.

Observational evidence for cloud cover enhancement over western European forests.

PubMed

Teuling, Adriaan J; Taylor, Christopher M; Meirink, Jan Fokke; Melsen, Lieke A; Miralles, Diego G; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C; Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek I; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; de Arellano, Jordi Vilà-Guerau

2017-01-11

Forests impact regional hydrology and climate directly by regulating water and heat fluxes. Indirect effects through cloud formation and precipitation can be important in facilitating continental-scale moisture recycling but are poorly understood at regional scales. In particular, the impact of temperate forest on clouds is largely unknown. Here we provide observational evidence for a strong increase in cloud cover over large forest regions in western Europe based on analysis of 10 years of 15 min resolution data from geostationary satellites. In addition, we show that widespread windthrow by cyclone Klaus in the Landes forest led to a significant decrease in local cloud cover in subsequent years. Strong cloud development along the downwind edges of larger forest areas are consistent with a forest-breeze mesoscale circulation. Our results highlight the need to include impacts on cloud formation when evaluating the water and climate services of temperate forests, in particular around densely populated areas.

Observational evidence for cloud cover enhancement over western European forests

PubMed Central

Teuling, Adriaan J.; Taylor, Christopher M.; Meirink, Jan Fokke; Melsen, Lieke A.; Miralles, Diego G.; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C.; Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek I.; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; de Arellano, Jordi Vilà-Guerau

2017-01-01

Forests impact regional hydrology and climate directly by regulating water and heat fluxes. Indirect effects through cloud formation and precipitation can be important in facilitating continental-scale moisture recycling but are poorly understood at regional scales. In particular, the impact of temperate forest on clouds is largely unknown. Here we provide observational evidence for a strong increase in cloud cover over large forest regions in western Europe based on analysis of 10 years of 15 min resolution data from geostationary satellites. In addition, we show that widespread windthrow by cyclone Klaus in the Landes forest led to a significant decrease in local cloud cover in subsequent years. Strong cloud development along the downwind edges of larger forest areas are consistent with a forest-breeze mesoscale circulation. Our results highlight the need to include impacts on cloud formation when evaluating the water and climate services of temperate forests, in particular around densely populated areas. PMID:28074840

Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States.

Treesearch

Ralph Alig; Darius Adams; John Mills; Richard Haynes; Peter Ince; Robert Moulton

2001-01-01

The TAMM/NAPAP/ATLAS/AREACHANGE(TNAA) system and the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) are two large-scale forestry sector modeling systems that have been employed to analyze the U.S. forest resource situation. The TNAA system of static, spatial equilibrium models has been applied to make SO-year projections of the U.S. forest sector for more...

Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season and their Associated Large-Scale Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Z.

2015-12-01

In the cool season (November-March), extreme temperature events (ETEs) always hit the continental United States (US) and provide significant societal impacts. According to the anomalous amplitudes of the surface air temperature (SAT), there are two typical types of ETEs, e.g. cold waves (CWs) and warm waves (WWs). This study used cluster analysis to categorize both CWs and WWs into four distinct regimes respectively and investigated their associated large-scale circulations on intra-seasonal time scale. Most of the CW regimes have large areal impact over the continental US. However, the distribution of cold SAT anomalies varies apparently in four regimes. In the sea level, the four CW regimes are characterized by anomalous high pressure over North America (near and to west of cold anomaly) with different extension and orientation. As a result, anomalous northerlies along east flank of anomalous high pressure convey cold air into the continental US. To the middle troposphere, the leading two groups feature large-scale and zonally-elongated circulation anomaly pattern, while the other two regimes exhibit synoptic wavetrain pattern with meridionally elongated features. As for the WW regimes, there are some patterns symmetry and anti-symmetry with respect to CW regimes. The WW regimes are characterized by anomalous low pressure and southerlies wind over North America. The first and fourth groups are affected by remote forcing emanating from North Pacific, while the others appear mainly locally forced.

Channeling Consumers to Preferred Providers and the Impact of Status Quo Bias: Does Type of Provider Matter?

PubMed Central

Boonen, Lieke H H M; Donkers, Bas; Schut, Frederik T

2011-01-01

Context To effectively bargain about the price and quality of health services, health insurers need to successfully channel their enrollees. Little is known about consumer sensitivity to different channeling incentives. In particular, the impact of status quo bias, which is expected to differ between different provider types, can play a large role in insurers' channeling ability. Objective To examine consumer sensitivity to channeling strategies and to analyze the impact of status quo bias for different provider types. Data Sources/Study Design With a large-scale discrete choice experiment, we investigate the impact of channeling incentives on choices for pharmacies and general practitioners (GPs). Survey data were obtained among a representative Dutch household panel (n=2,500). Principal Findings Negative financial incentives have a two to three times larger impact on provider choice than positive ones. Positive financial incentives have a relatively small impact on GP choice, while the impact of qualitative incentives is relatively large. Status quo bias has a large impact on provider choice, which is more prominent in the case of GPs than in the case of pharmacies. Conclusion The large impact of the status quo bias makes channeling consumers away from their current providers a daunting task, particularly in the case of GPs. PMID:21029092

Channeling consumers to preferred providers and the impact of status quo bias: does type of provider matter?

PubMed

Boonen, Lieke H H M; Donkers, Bas; Schut, Frederik T

2011-04-01

To effectively bargain about the price and quality of health services, health insurers need to successfully channel their enrollees. Little is known about consumer sensitivity to different channeling incentives. In particular, the impact of status quo bias, which is expected to differ between different provider types, can play a large role in insurers' channeling ability. To examine consumer sensitivity to channeling strategies and to analyze the impact of status quo bias for different provider types. With a large-scale discrete choice experiment, we investigate the impact of channeling incentives on choices for pharmacies and general practitioners (GPs). Survey data were obtained among a representative Dutch household panel (n = 2,500). Negative financial incentives have a two to three times larger impact on provider choice than positive ones. Positive financial incentives have a relatively small impact on GP choice, while the impact of qualitative incentives is relatively large. Status quo bias has a large impact on provider choice, which is more prominent in the case of GPs than in the case of pharmacies. The large impact of the status quo bias makes channeling consumers away from their current providers a daunting task, particularly in the case of GPs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Impact on demersal fish of a large-scale and deep sand extraction site with ecosystem-based landscaped sandbars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Maarten F.; Baptist, Martin J.; van Hal, Ralf; de Boois, Ingeborg J.; Lindeboom, Han J.; Hoekstra, Piet

2014-06-01

For the seaward harbour extension of the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, approximately 220 million m3 sand was extracted between 2009 and 2013. In order to decrease the surface area of direct impact, the authorities permitted deep sand extraction, down to 20 m below the seabed. Biological and physical impacts of large-scale and deep sand extraction are still being investigated and largely unknown. For this reason, we investigated the colonization of demersal fish in a deep sand extraction site. Two sandbars were artificially created by selective dredging, copying naturally occurring meso-scale bedforms to increase habitat heterogeneity and increasing post-dredging benthic and demersal fish species richness and biomass. Significant differences in demersal fish species assemblages in the sand extraction site were associated with variables such as water depth, median grain size, fraction of very fine sand, biomass of white furrow shell (Abra alba) and time after the cessation of sand extraction. Large quantities of undigested crushed white furrow shell fragments were found in all stomachs and intestines of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), indicating that it is an important prey item. One and two years after cessation, a significant 20-fold increase in demersal fish biomass was observed in deep parts of the extraction site. In the troughs of a landscaped sandbar however, a significant drop in biomass down to reference levels and a significant change in species assemblage was observed two years after cessation. The fish assemblage at the crests of the sandbars differed significantly from the troughs with tub gurnard (Chelidonichthys lucerna) being a Dufrêne-Legendre indicator species of the crests. This is a first indication of the applicability of landscaping techniques to induce heterogeneity of the seabed although it remains difficult to draw a strong conclusion due the lack of replication in the experiment. A new ecological equilibrium is not reached after 2 years since biotic and abiotic variables are still adapting. To understand the final impact of deep and large-scale sand extraction on demersal fish, we recommend monitoring for a longer period, at least for a period of six years or even longer.

Bioenergy Development Policy and Practice Must Recognize Potential Hydrologic Impacts: Lessons from the Americas.

PubMed

Watkins, David W; de Moraes, Márcia M G Alcoforado; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Mayer, Alex S; Licata, Julian; Lopez, Jose Gutierrez; Pypker, Thomas G; Molina, Vivianna Gamez; Marques, Guilherme Fernandes; Carneiro, Ana Cristina Guimaraes; Nuñez, Hector M; Önal, Hayri; da Nobrega Germano, Bruna

2015-12-01

Large-scale bioenergy production will affect the hydrologic cycle in multiple ways, including changes in canopy interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and the quantity and quality of surface runoff and groundwater recharge. As such, the water footprints of bioenergy sources vary significantly by type of feedstock, soil characteristics, cultivation practices, and hydro-climatic regime. Furthermore, water management implications of bioenergy production depend on existing land use, relative water availability, and competing water uses at a watershed scale. This paper reviews previous research on the water resource impacts of bioenergy production-from plot-scale hydrologic and nutrient cycling impacts to watershed and regional scale hydro-economic systems relationships. Primary gaps in knowledge that hinder policy development for integrated management of water-bioenergy systems are highlighted. Four case studies in the Americas are analyzed to illustrate relevant spatial and temporal scales for impact assessment, along with unique aspects of biofuel production compared to other agroforestry systems, such as energy-related conflicts and tradeoffs. Based on the case studies, the potential benefits of integrated resource management are assessed, as is the need for further case-specific research.

Bioenergy Development Policy and Practice Must Recognize Potential Hydrologic Impacts: Lessons from the Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkins, David W.; de Moraes, Márcia M. G. Alcoforado; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Mayer, Alex S.; Licata, Julian; Lopez, Jose Gutierrez; Pypker, Thomas G.; Molina, Vivianna Gamez; Marques, Guilherme Fernandes; Carneiro, Ana Cristina Guimaraes; Nuñez, Hector M.; Önal, Hayri; da Nobrega Germano, Bruna

2015-12-01

Large-scale bioenergy production will affect the hydrologic cycle in multiple ways, including changes in canopy interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and the quantity and quality of surface runoff and groundwater recharge. As such, the water footprints of bioenergy sources vary significantly by type of feedstock, soil characteristics, cultivation practices, and hydro-climatic regime. Furthermore, water management implications of bioenergy production depend on existing land use, relative water availability, and competing water uses at a watershed scale. This paper reviews previous research on the water resource impacts of bioenergy production—from plot-scale hydrologic and nutrient cycling impacts to watershed and regional scale hydro-economic systems relationships. Primary gaps in knowledge that hinder policy development for integrated management of water-bioenergy systems are highlighted. Four case studies in the Americas are analyzed to illustrate relevant spatial and temporal scales for impact assessment, along with unique aspects of biofuel production compared to other agroforestry systems, such as energy-related conflicts and tradeoffs. Based on the case studies, the potential benefits of integrated resource management are assessed, as is the need for further case-specific research.

Is Scale-Up of Community Mobilisation among Sex Workers Really Possible in Complex Urban Environments? The Case of Mumbai, India

PubMed Central

Kongelf, Anine; Bandewar, Sunita V. S.; Bharat, Shalini; Collumbien, Martine

2015-01-01

Background In the last decade, community mobilisation (CM) interventions targeting female sex workers (FSWs) have been scaled-up in India’s national response to the HIV epidemic. This included the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s Avahan programme which adopted a business approach to plan and manage implementation at scale. With the focus of evaluation efforts on measuring effectiveness and health impacts there has been little analysis thus far of the interaction of the CM interventions with the sex work industry in complex urban environments. Methods and Findings Between March and July 2012 semi-structured, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions were conducted with 63 HIV intervention implementers, to explore challenges of HIV prevention among FSWs in Mumbai. A thematic analysis identified contextual factors that impact CM implementation. Large-scale interventions are not only impacted by, but were shown to shape the dynamic social context. Registration practices and programme monitoring were experienced as stigmatising, reflected in shifting client preferences towards women not disclosing as ‘sex workers’. This combined with urban redevelopment and gentrification of traditional red light areas, forcing dispersal and more ‘hidden’ ways of solicitation, further challenging outreach and collectivisation. Participants reported that brothel owners and ‘pimps’ continued to restrict access to sex workers and the heterogeneous ‘community’ of FSWs remains fragmented with high levels of mobility. Stakeholder engagement was poor and mobilising around HIV prevention not compelling. Interventions largely failed to respond to community needs as strong target-orientation skewed activities towards those most easily measured and reported. Conclusion Large-scale interventions have been impacted by and contributed to an increasingly complex sex work environment in Mumbai, challenging outreach and mobilisation efforts. Sex workers remain a vulnerable and disempowered group needing continued support and more comprehensive services. PMID:25811484

Large-scale data analysis of power grid resilience across multiple US service regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chuanyi; Wei, Yun; Mei, Henry; Calzada, Jorge; Carey, Matthew; Church, Steve; Hayes, Timothy; Nugent, Brian; Stella, Gregory; Wallace, Matthew; White, Joe; Wilcox, Robert

2016-05-01

Severe weather events frequently result in large-scale power failures, affecting millions of people for extended durations. However, the lack of comprehensive, detailed failure and recovery data has impeded large-scale resilience studies. Here, we analyse data from four major service regions representing Upstate New York during Super Storm Sandy and daily operations. Using non-stationary spatiotemporal random processes that relate infrastructural failures to recoveries and cost, our data analysis shows that local power failures have a disproportionally large non-local impact on people (that is, the top 20% of failures interrupted 84% of services to customers). A large number (89%) of small failures, represented by the bottom 34% of customers and commonplace devices, resulted in 56% of the total cost of 28 million customer interruption hours. Our study shows that extreme weather does not cause, but rather exacerbates, existing vulnerabilities, which are obscured in daily operations.

Predicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought: 2012 and the case for better modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We present an example of a simulation-based forecast for the 2012 U.S. maize growing season produced as part of a high-resolution, multi-scale, predictive mechanistic modeling study designed for decision support, risk management, and counterfactual analysis. The simulations undertaken for this analy...

Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Mark

Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.

Concepts for on-board satellite image registration. Volume 3: Impact of VLSI/VHSIC on satellite on-board signal processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aanstoos, J. V.; Snyder, W. E.

1981-01-01

Anticipated major advances in integrated circuit technology in the near future are described as well as their impact on satellite onboard signal processing systems. Dramatic improvements in chip density, speed, power consumption, and system reliability are expected from very large scale integration. Improvements are expected from very large scale integration enable more intelligence to be placed on remote sensing platforms in space, meeting the goals of NASA's information adaptive system concept, a major component of the NASA End-to-End Data System program. A forecast of VLSI technological advances is presented, including a description of the Defense Department's very high speed integrated circuit program, a seven-year research and development effort.

Herbivore Impacts on Marsh Production Depend upon a Compensatory Continuum Mediated by Salinity Stress

PubMed Central

Long, Jeremy D.; Porturas, Laura D.

2014-01-01

Plant communities are disturbed by several stressors and they are expected to be further impacted by increasing anthropogenic stress. The consequences of these stressors will depend, in part, upon the ability of plants to compensate for herbivory. Previous studies found that herbivore impacts on plants can vary from negative to positive because of environmental control of plant compensatory responses, a.k.a. the Compensatory Continuum Hypothesis. While these influential studies enhanced our appreciation of the dynamic nature of plant-herbivore interactions, they largely focused on the impact of resource limitation. This bias limits our ability to predict how other environmental factors will shape the impact of herbivory. We examined the role of salinity stress on herbivory of salt marsh cordgrass, Spartina foliosa, by an herbivore previously hypothesized to influence the success of restoration projects (the scale insect, Haliaspis spartinae). Using a combination of field and mesocosm manipulations of scales and salinity, we measured how these factors affected Spartina growth and timing of senescence. In mesocosm studies, Spartina overcompensated for herbivory by growing taller shoots at low salinities but the impact of scales on plants switched from positive to neutral with increasing salinity stress. In field studies of intermediate salinities, scales reduced Spartina growth and increased the rate of senescence. Experimental salinity additions at this field site returned the impact of scales to neutral. Because salinity decreased scale densities, the switch in impact of scales on Spartina with increasing salinity was not simply a linear function of scale abundance. Thus, the impact of scales on primary production depended strongly upon environmental context because intermediate salinity stress prevented plant compensatory responses to herbivory. Understanding this context-dependency will be required if we are going to successfully predict the success of restoration efforts and the ecological consequences of anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:25310475

Capturing the true burden of dystonia on patients: the Cervical Dystonia Impact Profile (CDIP-58).

PubMed

Cano, S J; Warner, T T; Linacre, J M; Bhatia, K P; Thompson, A J; Fitzpatrick, R; Hobart, J C

2004-11-09

To develop a new rating scale for measuring the health impact of cervical dystonia (CD) that includes patients' perceptions and complements existing observer dependent clinician rating scales. Scale development was in three stages. In Stage 1, a large pool of items was generated from patient interviews (n = 25), expert opinion, and literature review. In Stage 2, these items were administered by postal survey to people with CD. The resulting data were analyzed using Rasch item analysis to construct, from the item pool, a rating scale that satisfied criteria for rigorous measurement. In Stage 3, the measurement properties of this rating scale were examined in an independent sample of people with CD. In Stage 1, 150 items concerning the health impact of CD were generated. In Stage 2, 556 people completed questionnaires (87% response rate) and a 58-item rating scale measuring the health impact of CD in eight areas was constructed (CD Impact Profile, CDIP-58). In Stage 3, CDIP-58 data from 391 people (87% response rate) were received. Analyses supported the measurement of eight unidimensional constructs (infit mean square range 0.62 to 1.50), item calibration (33.37 to 67.56), and patient separation statistics (2.59 to 3.38). Items demonstrated stable calibrations in subgroups of people with CD supporting the stability of the CDIP-58. The CDIP-58 is a reliable and valid patient-based rating scale measuring the health impact of CD in eight health dimensions.

Beetles among us: Social and economic impacts of the MPB epidemic [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Krista Gebert; Greg Jones; Patty Champ; Mike Czaja; Chuck Oliver; Paul E. Cruz; Jessica Clement

2014-01-01

Healthy forest ecosystems provide many goods and services that are vital to human well-being. When forest ecosystems are impacted by disturbances, such as the widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic, the services provided by these ecosystems are also affected. Likewise, management in response to large-scale forest disturbances impacts both the natural and human...

49 CFR Appendix A to Part 223 - Certification of Glazing Materials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... material to be tested (Target Material) shall be a full scale sample of the largest dimension intended to... weight impacts at a minimum of 960 feet per second velocity. (ii) Large Object Impact in which a cinder block of 24 lbs minimum weight with dimensions of 8 inches by 8 inches by 16 inches nominally impacts at...

A technique for the assessment of the visual impact of nearshore confined dredged materials and other built islands

Treesearch

Roy Mann

1979-01-01

Drilling rigs, confined dredged material disposal sites power and sewage treatment facilities, and other built objects on or near shorelines have often created appreciable impacts on the aesthetic perceptions of residents and recreational users. Techniques for assessing such impacts that are reviewed in this paper include viewscape analysis for large-scale shore...

Cooperation without culture? The null effect of generalized trust on intentional homicide: a cross-national panel analysis, 1995-2009.

PubMed

Robbins, Blaine

2013-01-01

Sociologists, political scientists, and economists all suggest that culture plays a pivotal role in the development of large-scale cooperation. In this study, I used generalized trust as a measure of culture to explore if and how culture impacts intentional homicide, my operationalization of cooperation. I compiled multiple cross-national data sets and used pooled time-series linear regression, single-equation instrumental-variables linear regression, and fixed- and random-effects estimation techniques on an unbalanced panel of 118 countries and 232 observations spread over a 15-year time period. Results suggest that culture and large-scale cooperation form a tenuous relationship, while economic factors such as development, inequality, and geopolitics appear to drive large-scale cooperation.

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateo, Cherry May R.; Yamazaki, Dai; Kim, Hyungjun; Champathong, Adisorn; Vaze, Jai; Oki, Taikan

2017-10-01

Global-scale river models (GRMs) are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC) is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC) is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

Impact of Desiccation of Aral Sea on the Regional Climate of Central Asia Using WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Ashish; Huang, Huei-Ping; Zavialov, Peter; Khan, Valentina

2018-01-01

This study explores the impacts of the desiccation of the Aral Sea and large-scale climate change on the regional climate of Central Asia in the post-1960 era. A series of climate downscaling experiments for the 1960's and 2000's decades were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast model at 12-km horizontal resolution. To quantify the impacts of the changing surface boundary condition, a set of simulations with an identical lateral boundary condition but different extents of the Aral Sea were performed. It was found that the desiccation of the Aral Sea leads to more snow (and less rain) as desiccated winter surface is relatively much colder than water surface. In summer, desiccation led to substantial warming over the Aral Sea. These impacts were largely confined to within the area covered by the former Aral Sea and its immediate vicinity, although desiccation of the Sea also led to minor cooling over the greater Central Asia in winter. A contrasting set of simulations with an identical surface boundary condition but different lateral boundary conditions produced more identifiable changes in regional climate over the greater Central Asia which was characterized by a warming trend in both winter and summer. Simulations also showed that while the desiccation of the Aral Sea has significant impacts on the local climate over the Sea, the climate over the greater Central Asia on inter-decadal time scale was more strongly influenced by the continental or global-scale climate change on that time scale.

Large-scale environments of narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvelä, E.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lietzen, H.; Poudel, A.; Heinämäki, P.; Einasto, M.

2017-09-01

Studying large-scale environments of narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) galaxies gives a new perspective on their properties, particularly their radio loudness. The large-scale environment is believed to have an impact on the evolution and intrinsic properties of galaxies, however, NLS1 sources have not been studied in this context before. We have a large and diverse sample of 1341 NLS1 galaxies and three separate environment data sets constructed using Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We use various statistical methods to investigate how the properties of NLS1 galaxies are connected to the large-scale environment, and compare the large-scale environments of NLS1 galaxies with other active galactic nuclei (AGN) classes, for example, other jetted AGN and broad-line Seyfert 1 (BLS1) galaxies, to study how they are related. NLS1 galaxies reside in less dense environments than any of the comparison samples, thus confirming their young age. The average large-scale environment density and environmental distribution of NLS1 sources is clearly different compared to BLS1 galaxies, thus it is improbable that they could be the parent population of NLS1 galaxies and unified by orientation. Within the NLS1 class there is a trend of increasing radio loudness with increasing large-scale environment density, indicating that the large-scale environment affects their intrinsic properties. Our results suggest that the NLS1 class of sources is not homogeneous, and furthermore, that a considerable fraction of them are misclassified. We further support a published proposal to replace the traditional classification to radio-loud, and radio-quiet or radio-silent sources with a division into jetted and non-jetted sources.

Monitoring Ecological Impacts of Environmental Surface Waters using Cell-based Metabolomics

EPA Science Inventory

Optimized cell-based metabolomics has been used to study the impacts of contaminants in surface waters on human and fish metabolomes. This method has proven to be resource- and time-effective, as well as sustainable for long term and large scale studies. In the current study, cel...

A Community-Scale Modeling System to Assess Port-Related Air Quality Impacts

EPA Science Inventory

Near-port air pollution has been identified by numerous organizations as a potential public health concern. Based upon multiple near-road and near-source monitoring studies, both busy roadways and large emission sources at the ports may impact local air quality within several hun...

Replicating Impact of a Primary School HIV Prevention Programme: Primary School Action for Better Health, Kenya

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maticka-Tyndale, E.; Mungwete, R.; Jayeoba, O.

2014-01-01

School-based programmes to combat the spread of HIV have been demonstrated to be effective over the short-term when delivered on a small scale. The question addressed here is whether results obtained with small-scale delivery are replicable in large-scale roll-out. Primary School Action for Better Health (PSABH), a programme to train teachers to…

Contamination, misuse and abuse of the global oceans leading to ecosystem damage and destruction, health consequences and international conflict

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Unregulated uses of the oceans may threaten the global ecological balance, alter plant and animal life and significantly impact the global climatic systems. Recent plans to locate large scale structures on the oceans and to exploit the mineral riches of the seas pose even greater risk to the ecological system. Finally, increasing use of the oceans for large scale transport greatly enhances the probability of collision, polluting spills and international conflict.

Large scale obscuration and related climate effects open literature bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, N.A.; Geitgey, J.; Behl, Y.K.

1994-05-01

Large scale obscuration and related climate effects of nuclear detonations first became a matter of concern in connection with the so-called ``Nuclear Winter Controversy`` in the early 1980`s. Since then, the world has changed. Nevertheless, concern remains about the atmospheric effects of nuclear detonations, but the source of concern has shifted. Now it focuses less on global, and more on regional effects and their resulting impacts on the performance of electro-optical and other defense-related systems. This bibliography reflects the modified interest.

[The ecological and epidemiological principles of prevention of ascariasis under the conditions of large-scale solid waste storage].

PubMed

Kas'ianov, V I

2005-01-01

The paper presents the results of a study of the impact of large-scale solid waste storage on ascariasis morbidity in the population. The use of sewage sediments as an organic soil fertilizer to grow strawberries and table greens is shown to substantially increase the risk of Ascaris infection in the population. Storage of solid domestic garbage on specialized dumping grounds does not lead to mass environmental pollution with geohelminthic eggs.

Large scale 20mm photography for range resources analysis in the Western United States. [Casa Grande, Arizona, Mercury, Nevada, and Mojave Desert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tueller, P. T.

1977-01-01

Large scale 70mm aerial photography is a valuable supplementary tool for rangeland studies. A wide assortment of applications were developed varying from vegetation mapping to assessing environmental impact on rangelands. Color and color infrared stereo pairs are useful for effectively sampling sites limited by ground accessibility. They allow an increased sample size at similar or lower cost than ground sampling techniques and provide a permanent record.

Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in winter on black carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzoli, Luca; Dobricic, Srdan; Russo, Simone; Vignati, Elisabetta

2017-10-01

Winter warming and sea-ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades may be related to changes of large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, which may impact the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a statistical algorithm, based on the maximum likelihood estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large-scale weather patterns associated with increasing temperatures in winter and sea-ice retreat in the Arctic impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that two atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the western Arctic. The increasing BC trend is mainly due to a pattern characterized by a high-pressure anomaly near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. Another pattern with a high-pressure anomaly over the Arctic and low-pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean has a smaller impact on BC deposition but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

Evaluating 20th Century precipitation characteristics between multi-scale atmospheric models with different land-atmosphere coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, M.; Denning, A. S.; Randall, D. A.; Branson, M.

2016-12-01

Multi-scale models of the atmosphere provide an opportunity to investigate processes that are unresolved by traditional Global Climate Models while at the same time remaining viable in terms of computational resources for climate-length time scales. The MMF represents a shift away from large horizontal grid spacing in traditional GCMs that leads to overabundant light precipitation and lack of heavy events, toward a model where precipitation intensity is allowed to vary over a much wider range of values. Resolving atmospheric motions on the scale of 4 km makes it possible to recover features of precipitation, such as intense downpours, that were previously only obtained by computationally expensive regional simulations. These heavy precipitation events may have little impact on large-scale moisture and energy budgets, but are outstanding in terms of interaction with the land surface and potential impact on human life. Three versions of the Community Earth System Model were used in this study; the standard CESM, the multi-scale `Super-Parameterized' CESM where large-scale parameterizations have been replaced with a 2D cloud-permitting model, and a multi-instance land version of the SP-CESM where each column of the 2D CRM is allowed to interact with an individual land unit. These simulations were carried out using prescribed Sea Surface Temperatures for the period from 1979-2006 with daily precipitation saved for all 28 years. Comparisons of the statistical properties of precipitation between model architectures and against observations from rain gauges were made, with specific focus on detection and evaluation of extreme precipitation events.

Probing aerosol indirect effect on deep convection using idealized cloud-resolving simulations with parameterized large-scale dynamics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, U.; Wang, S.; Gentine, P.; Jensen, M. P.

2017-12-01

A framework is introduced to investigate the indirect impact of aerosol loading on tropical deep convection using 3-dimentional idealized cloud-system resolving simulations with coupled large-scale circulation. The large scale dynamics is parameterized using a spectral weak temperature gradient approximation that utilizes the dominant balance in the tropics between adiabatic cooling and diabatic heating. Aerosol loading effect is examined by varying the number concentration of nuclei (CCN) to form cloud droplets in the bulk microphysics scheme over a wide range from 30 to 5000 without including any radiative effect as the radiative cooling is prescribed at a constant rate, to isolate the microphysical effect. Increasing aerosol number concentration causes mean precipitation to decrease monotonically, despite the increase in cloud condensates. Such reduction in precipitation efficiency is attributed to reduction in the surface enthalpy fluxes, and not to the divergent circulation, as the gross moist stability remains unchanged. We drive a simple scaling argument based on the moist static energy budget, that enables a direct estimation of changes in precipitation given known changes in surfaces enthalpy fluxes and the constant gross moist stability. The impact on cloud hydrometers and microphysical properties is also examined and is consistent with the macro-physical picture.

Collisional and dynamical history of Gaspra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberg, R.; Nolan, M. C.; Bottke, W. F., Jr.; Kolvoord, R. A.

1993-01-01

Interpretation of the impact record on Gaspra requires understanding of the effects of collisions on a target body of Gaspra's size and shape, recognition of impact features that may have different morphologies from craters on larger planets, and models of the geological processes that erase and modify impact features. Crater counts on the 140 sq km of Gaspra imaged at highest resolution by the Galileo spacecraft show a steep size-frequency distribution (cumulative power-law index near -3.5) from the smallest resolvable size (150 m diameter) up through the large feature (1.5 km diameter crater) of familiar crater-like morphology. In addition, there appear to be as many as eight roughly circular concavities with diameters greater than 3 km visible on the asteroid. If we restrict our crater counts to features with traditionally recognized crater morphologies, these concavities would not be included. However, if we define craters to include any concave structures that may represent local or regional damage at an impact size, then the larger features on Gaspra are candidates for consideration. Acceptance of the multi-km features as craters has been cautious for several reasons. First, scaling laws (the physically plausible algorithms for extrapolating from experimental data) indicate that Gaspra could not have sustained such large-crater-forming impacts without being disrupted; second, aside from concavity, the larger structures have no other features (e.g. rims) that can be identified with known impact craters; and third, extrapolation of the power-law size distribution for smaller craters predicts no craters larger than 3 km over the entire surface. On the other hand, recent hydrocode modeling of impacts shows that for given impact (albeit into a sphere), the crater size is much larger than given by scaling laws. Gaspra-size bodies can sustain formation of up to 8-km craters without disruption. Besides allowing larger impact craters, this result doubles the lifetime since the last catastrophic fragmentation event up to one billion years. Events that create multi-km craters also globally damage the material structure, such that regolith is produced, whether or not Gaspra 'initially' had a regolith, contrary to other models in which initial regolith is required in order to allow current regolith. Because the globally destructive shock wave precedes basin formation, crater size is closer to the large size extrapolated from gravity-scaling rather than the strength-scaling that had earlier been assumed for such small bodies. This mechanism may also help explain the existence of Stickney on Phobos. Moreover, rejection of the large concavities as craters based on unfamiliar morphology would be premature, because (aside from Stickney) we have no other data on such large impact structures on such a small, irregular body. The eight candidate concavities cover an area greater than that counted for smaller craters, because they are most apparent where small craters cannot be seen: on low resolution images and at the limb on high resolution images. We estimate that there are at least two with diameter greater than 4 km per 140 sq km, which would have to be accounted for in any model that claims these are impact craters.

Investigating the dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and clouds on the spatial scale of large-scale forcing at SGP [Investigating the scale dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and cloud by using gridded forcing data at SGP

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

2017-08-05

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version ofmore » the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.« less

Coupling large scale hydrologic-reservoir-hydraulic models for impact studies in data sparse regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Loughlin, Fiachra; Neal, Jeff; Wagener, Thorsten; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Woods, Ross; Pianosi, Francesca; Sheffied, Justin

2017-04-01

As hydraulic modelling moves to increasingly large spatial domains it has become essential to take reservoirs and their operations into account. Large-scale hydrological models have been including reservoirs for at least the past two decades, yet they cannot explicitly model the variations in spatial extent of reservoirs, and many reservoirs operations in hydrological models are not undertaken during the run-time operation. This requires a hydraulic model, yet to-date no continental scale hydraulic model has directly simulated reservoirs and their operations. In addition to the need to include reservoirs and their operations in hydraulic models as they move to global coverage, there is also a need to link such models to large scale hydrology models or land surface schemes. This is especially true for Africa where the number of river gauges has consistently declined since the middle of the twentieth century. In this study we address these two major issues by developing: 1) a coupling methodology for the VIC large-scale hydrological model and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model, and 2) a reservoir module for the LISFLOOD-FP model, which currently includes four sets of reservoir operating rules taken from the major large-scale hydrological models. The Volta Basin, West Africa, was chosen to demonstrate the capability of the modelling framework as it is a large river basin ( 400,000 km2) and contains the largest man-made lake in terms of area (8,482 km2), Lake Volta, created by the Akosombo dam. Lake Volta also experiences a seasonal variation in water levels of between two and six metres that creates a dynamic shoreline. In this study, we first run our coupled VIC and LISFLOOD-FP model without explicitly modelling Lake Volta and then compare these results with those from model runs where the dam operations and Lake Volta are included. The results show that we are able to obtain variation in the Lake Volta water levels and that including the dam operations and Lake Volta has significant impacts on the water levels across the domain.

The Impact of Large, Multi-Function/Multi-Site Competitions

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-08-01

this approach generates larger savings and improved service quality , and is less expensive to implement. Moreover, it is a way to meet the President s...of the study is to assess the degree to which large-scale competitions completed have resulted in increased savings and service quality and decreased

Crash test and evaluation of temporary wood sign support system for large guide signs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-07-01

The objective of this research task was to evaluate the impact performance of a temporary wood sign support : system for large guide signs. It was desired to use existing TxDOT sign hardware in the design to the extent possible. : The full-scale cras...

An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

The Bristol Bay watershed in southwestern Alaska supports the largest sockeye salmon fishery in the world, is home to 25 federally recognized tribal governments, and contains large mineral resources. The potential for large-scale mining activities in the watershed has raised conc...

The impact of large-scale, long-term optical surveys on pulsating star research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soszyński, Igor

2017-09-01

The era of large-scale photometric variability surveys began a quarter of a century ago, when three microlensing projects - EROS, MACHO, and OGLE - started their operation. These surveys initiated a revolution in the field of variable stars and in the next years they inspired many new observational projects. Large-scale optical surveys multiplied the number of variable stars known in the Universe. The huge, homogeneous and complete catalogs of pulsating stars, such as Cepheids, RR Lyrae stars, or long-period variables, offer an unprecedented opportunity to calibrate and test the accuracy of various distance indicators, to trace the three-dimensional structure of the Milky Way and other galaxies, to discover exotic types of intrinsically variable stars, or to study previously unknown features and behaviors of pulsators. We present historical and recent findings on various types of pulsating stars obtained from the optical large-scale surveys, with particular emphasis on the OGLE project which currently offers the largest photometric database among surveys for stellar variability.

Stability of knotted vortices in wave chaos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Alexander; Dennis, Mark

Large scale tangles of disordered filaments occur in many diverse physical systems, from turbulent superfluids to optical volume speckle to liquid crystal phases. They can exhibit particular large scale random statistics despite very different local physics. We have previously used the topological statistics of knotting and linking to characterise the large scale tangling, using the vortices of three-dimensional wave chaos as a universal model system whose physical lengthscales are set only by the wavelength. Unlike geometrical quantities, the statistics of knotting depend strongly on the physical system and boundary conditions. Although knotting patterns characterise different systems, the topology of vortices is highly unstable to perturbation, under which they may reconnect with one another. In systems of constructed knots, these reconnections generally rapidly destroy the knot, but for vortex tangles the topological statistics must be stable. Using large scale simulations of chaotic eigenfunctions, we numerically investigate the prevalence and impact of reconnection events, and their effect on the topology of the tangle.

Large-scale flow experiments for managing river systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Olden, Julian D.; Lytle, David A.; Melis, Theodore S.; Schmidt, John C.; Bray, Erin N.; Freeman, Mary C.; Gido, Keith B.; Hemphill, Nina P.; Kennard, Mark J.; McMullen, Laura E.; Mims, Meryl C.; Pyron, Mark; Robinson, Christopher T.; Williams, John G.

2011-01-01

Experimental manipulations of streamflow have been used globally in recent decades to mitigate the impacts of dam operations on river systems. Rivers are challenging subjects for experimentation, because they are open systems that cannot be isolated from their social context. We identify principles to address the challenges of conducting effective large-scale flow experiments. Flow experiments have both scientific and social value when they help to resolve specific questions about the ecological action of flow with a clear nexus to water policies and decisions. Water managers must integrate new information into operating policies for large-scale experiments to be effective. Modeling and monitoring can be integrated with experiments to analyze long-term ecological responses. Experimental design should include spatially extensive observations and well-defined, repeated treatments. Large-scale flow manipulations are only a part of dam operations that affect river systems. Scientists can ensure that experimental manipulations continue to be a valuable approach for the scientifically based management of river systems.

Chronic, Wireless Recordings of Large Scale Brain Activity in Freely Moving Rhesus Monkeys

PubMed Central

Schwarz, David A.; Lebedev, Mikhail A.; Hanson, Timothy L.; Dimitrov, Dragan F.; Lehew, Gary; Meloy, Jim; Rajangam, Sankaranarayani; Subramanian, Vivek; Ifft, Peter J.; Li, Zheng; Ramakrishnan, Arjun; Tate, Andrew; Zhuang, Katie; Nicolelis, Miguel A.L.

2014-01-01

Advances in techniques for recording large-scale brain activity contribute to both the elucidation of neurophysiological principles and the development of brain-machine interfaces (BMIs). Here we describe a neurophysiological paradigm for performing tethered and wireless large-scale recordings based on movable volumetric three-dimensional (3D) multielectrode implants. This approach allowed us to isolate up to 1,800 units per animal and simultaneously record the extracellular activity of close to 500 cortical neurons, distributed across multiple cortical areas, in freely behaving rhesus monkeys. The method is expandable, in principle, to thousands of simultaneously recorded channels. It also allows increased recording longevity (5 consecutive years), and recording of a broad range of behaviors, e.g. social interactions, and BMI paradigms in freely moving primates. We propose that wireless large-scale recordings could have a profound impact on basic primate neurophysiology research, while providing a framework for the development and testing of clinically relevant neuroprostheses. PMID:24776634

Applications of Magnetic Suspension Technology to Large Scale Facilities: Progress, Problems and Promises

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britcher, Colin P.

1997-01-01

This paper will briefly review previous work in wind tunnel Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems (MSBS) and will examine the handful of systems around the world currently known to be in operational condition or undergoing recommissioning. Technical developments emerging from research programs at NASA and elsewhere will be reviewed briefly, where there is potential impact on large-scale MSBSS. The likely aerodynamic applications for large MSBSs will be addressed, since these applications should properly drive system designs. A recently proposed application to ultra-high Reynolds number testing will then be addressed in some detail. Finally, some opinions on the technical feasibility and usefulness of a large MSBS will be given.

Impact of air-sea drag coefficient for latent heat flux on large scale climate in coupled and atmosphere stand-alone simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, Olivier; Braconnot, Pascale; Marti, Olivier; Gential, Luc

2018-05-01

The turbulent fluxes across the ocean/atmosphere interface represent one of the principal driving forces of the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Despite decades of effort and improvements, representation of these fluxes still presents a challenge due to the small-scale acting turbulent processes compared to the resolved scales of the models. Beyond this subgrid parameterization issue, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of air-sea interactions on the climate system is still lacking. In this paper we investigates the large-scale impacts of the transfer coefficient used to compute turbulent heat fluxes with the IPSL-CM4 climate model in which the surface bulk formula is modified. Analyzing both atmosphere and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM, OAGCM) simulations allows us to study the direct effect and the mechanisms of adjustment to this modification. We focus on the representation of latent heat flux in the tropics. We show that the heat transfer coefficients are highly similar for a given parameterization between AGCM and OAGCM simulations. Although the same areas are impacted in both kind of simulations, the differences in surface heat fluxes are substantial. A regional modification of heat transfer coefficient has more impact than uniform modification in AGCM simulations while in OAGCM simulations, the opposite is observed. By studying the global energetics and the atmospheric circulation response to the modification, we highlight the role of the ocean in dampening a large part of the disturbance. Modification of the heat exchange coefficient modifies the way the coupled system works due to the link between atmospheric circulation and SST, and the different feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere. The adjustment that takes place implies a balance of net incoming solar radiation that is the same in all simulations. As there is no change in model physics other than drag coefficient, we obtain similar latent heat flux between coupled simulations with different atmospheric circulations. Finally, we analyze the impact of model tuning and show that it can offset part of the feedbacks.

Is environmental legislation conserving tropical stream faunas? A large-scale assessment of local, riparian and catchment-scale influences on Amazonian fishes

EPA Science Inventory

Tropical agricultural is a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. In addition to the direct impacts of converting native vegetation to agriculture this process is accompanied by a wider set of human-induced disturbances, many of which are poorly addressed by existing environment...

Inconsistent application of environmental laws and policies to California's oak woodlands

Treesearch

Gregory A. Giusti; Adina M. Merenlender

2002-01-01

We examine inconsistencies in the application of environmental laws and policies to California's oak woodlands and associated resources. Specifically, large-scale vegetation removals receive different levels of environmental oversight depending on location, tree species, and the final land use designation. Hence, situations arise where the scale of impacts to the...

A geographic comparison of selected large-scale planetary surface features

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meszaros, S. P.

1984-01-01

Photographic and cartographic comparisons of geographic features on Mercury, the Moon, Earth, Mars, Ganymede, Callisto, Mimas, and Tethys are presented. Planetary structures caused by impacts, volcanism, tectonics, and other natural forces are included. Each feature is discussed individually and then those of similar origin are compared at the same scale.

Taking the pulse of a continent: Expanding site-based research infrastructure for regional- to continental-scale ecology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many of the most dramatic and surprising effects of global change on ecological systems will occur across large spatial extents, from regions to continents. Multiple ecosystem types will be impacted across a range of interacting spatial and temporal scales. The ability of ecologists to understand an...

An atomistic study of the effect of micro-structure on the HEL evolution in a nanocrystalline aluminum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valisetty, R.; Rajendran, A.; Dongare, A.; Namburu, R.

2017-06-01

This study focuses on the shock precursor decay phenomena in pure aluminum crystals and nanocrystalline aluminum (nc-Al) systems under one dimensional strain condition using large scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. For this purpose, two different atom systems are modeled for the nc-Al: 1) 900 Å thick ( 20 million atoms) with grain sizes (Å): 60, 100, 140 and 180, and 2) 5000 Å thick ( 2 billion atoms) with grain sizes (Å): 180, 500, and 1000. The MD simulations considered a plate-on-plate configuration at five impact velocities between 0.7 km/s to 1.5 km/s. The very large MD results ( 100s of terabytes) are modeled using a material conserving atom slicing method, based on averaged stress distributions along the shock fronts. The effects of grain sizes on dislocation evolutions at the HEL are analyzed in terms of precursor decay profiles at various distances along the shock front. The results indicate that the effect of impact velocity on the HEL amplitudes becomes insignificant after the wave propagates certain characteristic distances. However, the grain size significantly influences the material shock strength. By combining HELs determined from MD results with plate impact experimental data reported in literature for pure aluminum, the precursor decay for nc-Al systems was constructed across nano to macro length scales. The construct is based on the assumption that the plasticity is a result of accumulations of defects or dislocations from a very small scale to a large scale of the material.

epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

PubMed

Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

2016-12-01

Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatio-temporal Eigenvector Filtering: Application on Bioenergy Crop Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Kamarianakis, Y.; Georgescu, M.

2017-12-01

A suite of 10-year ensemble-based simulations was conducted to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts due to large-scale deployment of perennial bioenergy crops across the continental United States. Given the large size of the simulated dataset (about 60Tb), traditional hierarchical spatio-temporal statistical modelling cannot be implemented for the evaluation of physics parameterizations and biofuel impacts. In this work, we propose a filtering algorithm that takes into account the spatio-temporal autocorrelation structure of the data while avoiding spatial confounding. This method is used to quantify the robustness of simulated hydroclimatic impacts associated with bioenergy crops to alternative physics parameterizations and observational datasets. Results are evaluated against those obtained from three alternative Bayesian spatio-temporal specifications.

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2014-01-01

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation during and after the monsoon is likely to increase in both basins under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios; whereas, the pre-monsoon precipitation is likely to decrease. Peak monsoon precipitation is likely to shift from July to August, and may impact the livelihoods of large rural populations linked to subsistence agriculture in the basins. Uncertainty analysis of the downscaled precipitation indicated that the uncertainty in the downscaled precipitation was less than the uncertainty in the original CGCM3.1 precipitation; hence, the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation was a better input for the regional hydrological impact studies. However, downscaled precipitation from multiple GCMs is suggested for comprehensive impact studies.

Various Numerical Applications on Tropical Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.

2003-01-01

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) for their ability to simulate the radiative-convective system, which plays a significant role in determining the regional heat and moisture budgets in the Tropics. The growing popularity of CRM usage can be credited to its inclusion of crucial and physically relatively realistic features such as explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit cloud-radiation interaction. On the other hand, impacts of the environmental conditions (for example, the large-scale wind fields, heat and moisture advections as well as sea surface temperature) on the convective system can also be plausibly investigated using the CRMs with imposed explicit forcing. In this paper, by basically using a Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, three different studies on tropical convective systems are briefly presented. Each of these studies serves a different goal as well as uses a different approach. In the first study, which uses more of an idealized approach, the respective impacts of the large-scale horizontal wind shear and surface fluxes on the modeled tropical quasi-equilibrium states of temperature and water vapor are examined. In this 2-D study, the imposed large-scale horizontal wind shear is ideally either nudged (wind shear maintained strong) or mixed (wind shear weakened), while the minimum surface wind speed used for computing surface fluxes varies among various numerical experiments. For the second study, a handful of real tropical episodes (TRMM Kwajalein Experiment - KWAJEX, 1999; TRMM South China Sea Monsoon Experiment - SCSMEX, 1998) have been simulated such that several major atmospheric characteristics such as the rainfall amount and its associated stratiform contribution, the Qlheat and Q2/moisture budgets are investigated. In this study, the observed large-scale heat and moisture advections are continuously applied to the 2-D model. The modeled cloud generated from such an approach is termed continuously forced convection or continuous large-scale forced convection. A third study, which focuses on the respective impact of atmospheric components on upper Ocean heat and salt budgets, will be presented in the end. Unlike the two previous 2-D studies, this study employs the 3-D GCE-simulated diabatic source terms (using TOGA COARE observations) - radiation (longwave and shortwave), surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat, and wind stress), and precipitation as input for the Ocean mixed-layer (OML) model.

MANGO Imager Network Observations of Geomagnetic Storm Impact on Midlatitude 630 nm Airglow Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, E. A.; Bhatt, A.

2017-12-01

The Midlatitude Allsky-imaging Network for GeoSpace Observations (MANGO) is a network of imagers filtered at 630 nm spread across the continental United States. MANGO is used to image large-scale airglow and aurora features and observes the generation, propagation, and dissipation of medium and large-scale wave activity in the subauroral, mid and low-latitude thermosphere. This network consists of seven all-sky imagers providing continuous coverage over the United States and extending south into Mexico. This network sees high levels of medium and large scale wave activity due to both neutral and geomagnetic storm forcing. The geomagnetic storm observations largely fall into two categories: Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs and Large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs). In addition, less-often observed effects include anomalous airglow brightening, bright swirls, and frozen-in traveling structures. We will present an analysis of multiple events observed over four years of MANGO network operation. We will provide both statistics on the cumulative observations and a case study of the "Memorial Day Storm" on May 27, 2017.

Large-Scale Weather Disturbances in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2015-11-01

Between late autumn and early spring, Mars’ middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal gradients between the tropics and poles. Observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). These extratropical weather disturbances are key components of the global circulation. Such wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively lifted and radiatively active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars’ full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating key large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars’ transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are highly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). The occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring appears to be anchored to the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Breccia dikes from the Beaverhead Impact structure, southwest Montana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiske, P. S.; Hougen, S. B.; Hargraves, R. B.

1992-01-01

While shatter cones are generally accepted as indicators of meteorite impact, older petrologic features are not widely recognized in the geologic community. Breccia dikes are one such feature. They are found in many large impact structures occurring over an area at least as extensively as shatter cones. Breccia dikes will survive moderate degrees of metamorphism and tectonism, unlike many other microscopic features (shocked quartz grains, high-pressure polymorphs, etc.) and even large-scale features such as annular or bowl-shaped topographic features. Thus, they are important diagnostic criteria, especially for large, poorly preserved impact structures. The Beaverhead Impact structure is a recently discovered, deeply eroded impact structure in southwestern Montana. The remains of the structure are delineated by the occurrence of shatter cones, found in an area greater than 200 sq km, occurring within the Cabin thrust plate, part of the Cretaceous Sevier fold and thrust system. The distribution of shatter cones is further truncated by Tertiary normal faults. The present remains represent an allochthonous fragment of a larger structure.

Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

2018-01-01

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bazillian, Morgan; Pedersen, Ascha Lychett; Pless, Jacuelyn

Shale gas resource potential in China is assessed to be large, and its development could have wide-ranging economic, environmental, and energy security implications. Although commercial scale shale gas development has not yet begun in China, it holds the potential to change the global energy landscape. Chinese decision-makers are wrestling with the challenges associated with bringing the potential to reality: geologic complexity; infrastructure and logistical difficulties; technological, institutional, social and market development issues; and environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, impacts on water availability and quality, and air pollution. This paper briefly examines the current situation and outlook for shale gasmore » in China, and explores existing and potential avenues for international cooperation. We find that despite some barriers to large-scale development, Chinese shale gas production has the potential to grow rapidly over the medium-term.« less

Unstructured grid modelling of offshore wind farm impacts on seasonally stratified shelf seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, Pierre William; Torres, Ricardo; Allen, J. Icarus

2016-06-01

Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world's oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometre-scale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

Sedimentary processes of the Bagnold Dunes: Implications for the eolian rock record of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewing, R. C.; Lapotre, M. G. A.; Lewis, K. W.; Day, M.; Stein, N.; Rubin, D. M.; Sullivan, R.; Banham, S.; Lamb, M. P.; Bridges, N. T.; Gupta, S.; Fischer, W. W.

2017-12-01

The Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity visited two active wind-blown sand dunes within Gale crater, Mars, which provided the first ground-based opportunity to compare Martian and terrestrial eolian dune sedimentary processes and study a modern analog for the Martian eolian rock record. Orbital and rover images of these dunes reveal terrestrial-like and uniquely Martian processes. The presence of grainfall, grainflow, and impact ripples resembled terrestrial dunes. Impact ripples were present on all dune slopes and had a size and shape similar to their terrestrial counterpart. Grainfall and grainflow occurred on dune and large-ripple lee slopes. Lee slopes were 29° where grainflows were present and 33° where grainfall was present. These slopes are interpreted as the dynamic and static angles of repose, respectively. Grain size measured on an undisturbed impact ripple ranges between 50 μm and 350 μm with an intermediate axis mean size of 113 μm (median: 103 μm). Dissimilar to dune eolian processes on Earth, large, meter-scale ripples were present on all dune slopes. Large ripples had nearly symmetric to strongly asymmetric topographic profiles and heights ranging between 12 cm and 28 cm. The composite observations of the modern sedimentary processes highlight that the Martian eolian rock record is likely different from its terrestrial counterpart because of the large ripples, which are expected to engender a unique scale of cross stratification. More broadly, however, in the Bagnold Dune Field as on Earth, dune-field pattern dynamics and basin-scale boundary conditions will dictate the style and distribution of sedimentary processes.

Impact-induced melting and heating of planetary interiors - implications for the thermo-chemical evolution of planets and crystallization of magma oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuennemann, K.; Manske, L.; Zhu, M.; Nakajima, M.; Breuer, D.; Schwinger, S.; Plesa, A. C.

2017-12-01

Large collisions and giant impact events play an important role in the thermo-chemical evolution of planets during their early and late accretion phases. Besides material that is delivered by differentiated and primitive projectiles a significant amount of the kinetic impact energy is transferred to the planets interior resulting in heating and widespread melting of matter. As a consequence, giant impacts are thought to form global magma oceans. The amount and distribution of impact-induced heating and melting has been previously estimated by scaling laws derived from small-scale impact simulations and experiments, simple theoretical considerations, and observations at terrestrial craters. We carried out a suite of numerical models using the iSALE shock physics code and an SPH code combined with the ANEOS package to investigate the melt production in giant impacts and planetary collision events as a function of impactor size and velocity, and the target temperature. Our results are consistent with previously derived scaling laws only for smaller impactors (<10 km in diameter), but significantly deviate for larger impactors: (1) for hot planets, where the temperature below the lithosphere lies close to the solidus temperature, the melt production is significantly increased for impactors comparable in the size to the depth of the lithosphere. The resulting crater structures would drown in their own melt and only large igneous provinces (local magma oceans) would remain visible at the surface;(2) even bigger impacts (planetary collisions) generate global magma oceans; (3) impacts into a completely solidified (cold) target result in more localized heating in comparison to impacts into a magma ocean, where the impact-induced heating is distributed over a larger volume. In addition, we investigate the influence of impacts on a cooling and crystallization of magma oceans and use the lunar magma ocean as an example.

Divergence of species responses to climate change

Treesearch

Songlin Fei; Johanna M. Desprez; Kevin M. Potter; Insu Jo; Jonathan A. Knott; Christopher M. Oswalt

2017-01-01

Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impactsare less understood.Weanalyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more...

Using Propensity Scores in Quasi-Experimental Designs to Equate Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Forrest C.; Henson, Robin K.

2010-01-01

Education research rarely lends itself to large scale experimental research and true randomization, leaving the researcher to quasi-experimental designs. The problem with quasi-experimental research is that underlying factors may impact group selection and lead to potentially biased results. One way to minimize the impact of non-randomization is…

C-PORT: A Community-Scale Near-Source Air Quality System to Assess Port-Related Air Quality Impacts

EPA Science Inventory

With increasing activity in global trade, there has been increased activity in transportation by rail, road and ships to move cargo. Based upon multiple near-road and near-source monitoring studies, both busy roadways and large emission source at the ports may impact local air qu...

78 FR 25266 - An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-30

... information presented in the report, the realistic mining scenario used, the data and information used to... additional data or scientific or technical information about Bristol Bay resources or large-scale mining that... Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency...

Replicating Experimental Impact Estimates Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach. NCEE 2012-4025

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gleason, Philip M.; Resch, Alexandra M.; Berk, Jillian A.

2012-01-01

This NCEE Technical Methods Paper compares the estimated impacts of an educational intervention using experimental and regression discontinuity (RD) study designs. The analysis used data from two large-scale randomized controlled trials--the Education Technology Evaluation and the Teach for America Study--to provide evidence on the performance of…

Analyzing animal movement patterns using potential functions

Treesearch

H. K. Preisler; A. A. Ager; M. J. Wisdom

2013-01-01

The advent of GPS technology has made it possible to study human-wildlife interactions on large landscapes and quantify behavioral responses to recreation and other anthropogenic disturbances at increasingly fine scales. Of particular interest are the potential impacts on habitat use patterns, energetics, and cascading impacts on fecundity and other life history traits...

Reconciling Rigour and Impact by Collaborative Research Design: Study of Teacher Agency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pantic, Nataša

2017-01-01

This paper illustrates a new way of working collaboratively on the development of a methodology for studying teacher agency for social justice. Increasing emphasis of impact on change as a purpose of social research raises questions about appropriate research designs. Large-scale quantitative research framed within externally set parameters has…

Cooperation without Culture? The Null Effect of Generalized Trust on Intentional Homicide: A Cross-National Panel Analysis, 1995–2009

PubMed Central

Robbins, Blaine

2013-01-01

Sociologists, political scientists, and economists all suggest that culture plays a pivotal role in the development of large-scale cooperation. In this study, I used generalized trust as a measure of culture to explore if and how culture impacts intentional homicide, my operationalization of cooperation. I compiled multiple cross-national data sets and used pooled time-series linear regression, single-equation instrumental-variables linear regression, and fixed- and random-effects estimation techniques on an unbalanced panel of 118 countries and 232 observations spread over a 15-year time period. Results suggest that culture and large-scale cooperation form a tenuous relationship, while economic factors such as development, inequality, and geopolitics appear to drive large-scale cooperation. PMID:23527211

Semi-Automated Air-Coupled Impact-Echo Method for Large-Scale Parkade Structure.

PubMed

Epp, Tyler; Svecova, Dagmar; Cha, Young-Jin

2018-03-29

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) has moved to data-dense systems, utilizing numerous sensor types to monitor infrastructure, such as bridges and dams, more regularly. One of the issues faced in this endeavour is the scale of the inspected structures and the time it takes to carry out testing. Installing automated systems that can provide measurements in a timely manner is one way of overcoming these obstacles. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) application that determines intact and damaged locations from a small training sample of impact-echo data, using air-coupled microphones from a reinforced concrete beam in lab conditions and data collected from a field experiment in a parking garage. The impact-echo testing in the field is carried out in a semi-autonomous manner to expedite the front end of the in situ damage detection testing. The use of an ANN removes the need for a user-defined cutoff value for the classification of intact and damaged locations when a least-square distance approach is used. It is postulated that this may contribute significantly to testing time reduction when monitoring large-scale civil Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures.

Semi-Automated Air-Coupled Impact-Echo Method for Large-Scale Parkade Structure

PubMed Central

Epp, Tyler; Svecova, Dagmar; Cha, Young-Jin

2018-01-01

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) has moved to data-dense systems, utilizing numerous sensor types to monitor infrastructure, such as bridges and dams, more regularly. One of the issues faced in this endeavour is the scale of the inspected structures and the time it takes to carry out testing. Installing automated systems that can provide measurements in a timely manner is one way of overcoming these obstacles. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) application that determines intact and damaged locations from a small training sample of impact-echo data, using air-coupled microphones from a reinforced concrete beam in lab conditions and data collected from a field experiment in a parking garage. The impact-echo testing in the field is carried out in a semi-autonomous manner to expedite the front end of the in situ damage detection testing. The use of an ANN removes the need for a user-defined cutoff value for the classification of intact and damaged locations when a least-square distance approach is used. It is postulated that this may contribute significantly to testing time reduction when monitoring large-scale civil Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures. PMID:29596332

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

PubMed

Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-03-17

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Quantification of Uncertainties (Alexander von Humboldt Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mujumdar, Pradeep P.

2014-05-01

Climate change results in regional hydrologic change. The three prominent signals of global climate change, viz., increase in global average temperatures, rise in sea levels and change in precipitation patterns convert into signals of regional hydrologic change in terms of modifications in water availability, evaporative water demand, hydrologic extremes of floods and droughts, water quality, salinity intrusion in coastal aquifers, groundwater recharge and other related phenomena. A major research focus in hydrologic sciences in recent years has been assessment of impacts of climate change at regional scales. An important research issue addressed in this context deals with responses of water fluxes on a catchment scale to the global climatic change. A commonly adopted methodology for assessing the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change is to use the climate projections provided by the General Circulation Models (GCMs) for specified emission scenarios in conjunction with the process-based hydrologic models to generate the corresponding hydrologic projections. The scaling problem arising because of the large spatial scales at which the GCMs operate compared to those required in distributed hydrologic models, and their inability to satisfactorily simulate the variables of interest to hydrology are addressed by downscaling the GCM simulations to hydrologic scales. Projections obtained with this procedure are burdened with a large uncertainty introduced by the choice of GCMs and emission scenarios, small samples of historical data against which the models are calibrated, downscaling methods used and other sources. Development of methodologies to quantify and reduce such uncertainties is a current area of research in hydrology. In this presentation, an overview of recent research carried out by the author's group on assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change addressing scale issues and quantification of uncertainties is provided. Methodologies developed with conditional random fields, Dempster-Shafer theory, possibility theory, imprecise probabilities and non-stationary extreme value theory are discussed. Specific applications on uncertainty quantification in impacts on streamflows, evaporative water demands, river water quality and urban flooding are presented. A brief discussion on detection and attribution of hydrologic change at river basin scales, contribution of landuse change and likely alterations in return levels of hydrologic extremes is also provided.

Towards drought risk mapping on a pan-European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Stahl, Kerstin; Seneviratne, Sonia

2014-05-01

Drought is a very complex and multifarious natural hazard, which causes a variety of direct and indirect environmental and socio-economic impacts. For the last 30 years, droughts in Europe caused over 100 billion Euros of losses from impacts in various sectors e.g. agriculture, water quality or energy production. Despite the apparent importance of this hazard observed pan-European drought impacts have not yet been quantitatively related to the most important climatological drivers. Fundamentally, a common approach to describe drought risk on a pan-European scale is still missing. This contribution presents an approach for linking climatological drought indices with observed drought impacts at the European scale. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for different time scales were calculated based on E-OBS data and are used to describe the drought hazard. Data from the European Drought Impact Inventory (EDII) compiled by the EU FP7 Drought R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing) project are used as a proxy for multi-sectorial (impact categories) vulnerability following the assumption that a reported impact reflects a region's vulnerability to the hazard. Drought risk is then modelled statistically by applying logistic regression to estimate the probability of impact report occurrence as a function of SPI and SPEI. This approach finally allows to map the probability of drought impact occurrence on a year by year basis. The emerging patterns compare well to many known European drought events. Such maps may become an essential component of Drought Risk Management to foster resilience for this hazard at the large scale.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

Topics covered include: Ringwoodite-olivine assemblages in Dhofar L6 melt veins; Amorphization of forsterite grains due to high energy heavy ion irradiation: Implications for grain processing in ISM; Validation of AUTODYN in replicating large-scale planetary impact events; A network of geophysical observatories for mars; Modelling catastrophic floods on the surface of mars; Impact into coarse grained spheres; The diderot meteorite: The second chassignite; Galileo global color mosaics of Io; Ganymede's sulci on global and regional scales; and The cold traps near the south pole of the moon.

Experimental Hypervelocity Dust Impact in Olivine: FIB/TEM Characterization of Micron-Scale Craters with Comparison to Natural and Laser-Simulated Small-Scale Impact Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christoffersen, R.; Loeffler, M. J.; Rahman, Z.; Dukes, C.; IMPACT Team

2017-01-01

The space weathering of regoliths on airless bodies and the formation of their exospheres is driven to a large extent by hypervelocity impacts from the high relative flux of micron to sub-micron meteoroids that comprise approximately 90 percent of the solar system meteoroid population. Laboratory hypervelocity impact experiments are crucial for quantifying how these small impact events drive space weathering through target shock, melting and vaporization. Simulating these small scale impacts experimentally is challenging because the natural impactors are both very small and many have velocities above the approximately 8 kilometers-per-second limit attainable by conventional chemical/light gas accelerator technology. Electrostatic "dust" accelerators, such as the one recently developed at the Colorado Center for Lunar Dust and Atmospheric Studies (CCLDAS), allow the experimental velocity regime to be extended up to tens of kilometers-per-second. Even at these velocities the region of latent target damage created by each impact, in the form of microcraters or pits, is still only about 0.1 to 10 micrometers in size. Both field-emission analytical scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) and advanced field-emission scanning transmission electron microscopy (FE-STEM) are uniquely suited for characterizing the individual dust impact sites in these experiments. In this study, we have used both techniques, along with focused ion beam (FIB) sample preparation, to characterize the micrometer to nanometer scale effects created by accelerated dust impacts into olivine single crystals. To our knowledge this work presents the first TEM-scale characterization of dust impacts into a key solar system silicate mineral using the CCLDAS facility. Our overarching goal for this work is to establish a basis to compare with our previous results on natural dust-impacted lunar olivine and laser-irradiated olivine.

Scaling laws of strategic behavior and size heterogeneity in agent dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Moro, Esteban; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2008-03-01

We consider the financial market as a model system and study empirically how agents strategically adjust the properties of large orders in order to meet their preference and minimize their impact. We quantify this strategic behavior by detecting scaling relations between the variables characterizing the trading activity of different institutions. We also observe power-law distributions in the investment time horizon, in the number of transactions needed to execute a large order, and in the traded value exchanged by large institutions, and we show that heterogeneity of agents is a key ingredient for the emergence of some aggregate properties characterizing this complex system.

Flagellum synchronization inhibits large-scale hydrodynamic instabilities in sperm suspensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöller, Simon F.; Keaveny, Eric E.

2016-11-01

Sperm in suspension can exhibit large-scale collective motion and form coherent structures. Our picture of such coherent motion is largely based on reduced models that treat the swimmers as self-locomoting rigid bodies that interact via steady dipolar flow fields. Swimming sperm, however, have many more degrees of freedom due to elasticity, have a more exotic shape, and generate spatially-complex, time-dependent flow fields. While these complexities are known to lead to phenomena such as flagellum synchronization and attraction, how these effects impact the overall suspension behaviour and coherent structure formation is largely unknown. Using a computational model that captures both flagellum beating and elasticity, we simulate suspensions on the order of 103 individual swimming sperm cells whose motion is coupled through the surrounding Stokesian fluid. We find that the tendency for flagella to synchronize and sperm to aggregate inhibits the emergence of the large-scale hydrodynamic instabilities often associated with active suspensions. However, when synchronization is repressed by adding noise in the flagellum actuation mechanism, the picture changes and the structures that resemble large-scale vortices appear to re-emerge. Supported by an Imperial College PhD scholarship.

Moisture source classification of heavy precipitation events in Switzerland in the last 130 years (1871-2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aemisegger, Franziska; Piaget, Nicolas

2017-04-01

A new weather-system oriented classification framework of extreme precipitation events leading to large-scale floods in Switzerland is presented on this poster. Thirty-six high impact floods in the last 130 years are assigned to three representative categories of atmospheric moisture origin and transport patterns. The methodology underlying this moisture source classification combines information of the airmass history in the twenty days preceding the precipitation event with humidity variations along the large-scale atmospheric transport systems in a Lagrangian approach. The classification scheme is defined using the 33-year ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1979-2011) and is then applied to the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (1871-2011) extreme precipitation events as well as the 36 selected floods. The three defined categories are characterised by different dominant moisture uptake regions including the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and continental Europe. Furthermore, distinct anomalies in the large-scale atmospheric flow are associated with the different categories. The temporal variations in the relative importance of the three categories over the last 130 years provides new insights into the impact of changing climate conditions on the dynamical mechanisms leading to heavy precipitation in Switzerland.

Visual analysis of inter-process communication for large-scale parallel computing.

PubMed

Muelder, Chris; Gygi, Francois; Ma, Kwan-Liu

2009-01-01

In serial computation, program profiling is often helpful for optimization of key sections of code. When moving to parallel computation, not only does the code execution need to be considered but also communication between the different processes which can induce delays that are detrimental to performance. As the number of processes increases, so does the impact of the communication delays on performance. For large-scale parallel applications, it is critical to understand how the communication impacts performance in order to make the code more efficient. There are several tools available for visualizing program execution and communications on parallel systems. These tools generally provide either views which statistically summarize the entire program execution or process-centric views. However, process-centric visualizations do not scale well as the number of processes gets very large. In particular, the most common representation of parallel processes is a Gantt char t with a row for each process. As the number of processes increases, these charts can become difficult to work with and can even exceed screen resolution. We propose a new visualization approach that affords more scalability and then demonstrate it on systems running with up to 16,384 processes.

Improved Strength and Damage Modeling of Geologic Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Sarah; Senft, Laurel

2007-06-01

Collisions and impact cratering events are important processes in the evolution of planetary bodies. The time and length scales of planetary collisions, however, are inaccessible in the laboratory and require the use of shock physics codes. We present the results from a new rheological model for geological materials implemented in the CTH code [1]. The `ROCK' model includes pressure, temperature, and damage effects on strength, as well as acoustic fluidization during impact crater collapse. We demonstrate that the model accurately reproduces final crater shapes, tensile cracking, and damaged zones from laboratory to planetary scales. The strength model requires basic material properties; hence, the input parameters may be benchmarked to laboratory results and extended to planetary collision events. We show the effects of varying material strength parameters, which are dependent on both scale and strain rate, and discuss choosing appropriate parameters for laboratory and planetary situations. The results are a significant improvement in models of continuum rock deformation during large scale impact events. [1] Senft, L. E., Stewart, S. T. Modeling Impact Cratering in Layered Surfaces, J. Geophys. Res., submitted.

Architectural Optimization of Digital Libraries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biser, Aileen O.

1998-01-01

This work investigates performance and scaling issues relevant to large scale distributed digital libraries. Presently, performance and scaling studies focus on specific implementations of production or prototype digital libraries. Although useful information is gained to aid these designers and other researchers with insights to performance and scaling issues, the broader issues relevant to very large scale distributed libraries are not addressed. Specifically, no current studies look at the extreme or worst case possibilities in digital library implementations. A survey of digital library research issues is presented. Scaling and performance issues are mentioned frequently in the digital library literature but are generally not the focus of much of the current research. In this thesis a model for a Generic Distributed Digital Library (GDDL) and nine cases of typical user activities are defined. This model is used to facilitate some basic analysis of scaling issues. Specifically, the calculation of Internet traffic generated for different configurations of the study parameters and an estimate of the future bandwidth needed for a large scale distributed digital library implementation. This analysis demonstrates the potential impact a future distributed digital library implementation would have on the Internet traffic load and raises questions concerning the architecture decisions being made for future distributed digital library designs.

Revisiting Ontario Teachers' and Students' Perceptions of Large-Scale Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Thomas G.; Joong, Yee Han Peter

2013-01-01

Within the following text, educational reform is examined to reveal how and to what extent Ontario secondary teachers (n = 87) have implemented educational changes that had a direct impact on students (n = 396), themselves, and curriculum. Our mixed methods data, while limited in scope, indicated that secondary school teachers were largely content…

On the impact of approximate computation in an analog DeSTIN architecture.

PubMed

Young, Steven; Lu, Junjie; Holleman, Jeremy; Arel, Itamar

2014-05-01

Deep machine learning (DML) holds the potential to revolutionize machine learning by automating rich feature extraction, which has become the primary bottleneck of human engineering in pattern recognition systems. However, the heavy computational burden renders DML systems implemented on conventional digital processors impractical for large-scale problems. The highly parallel computations required to implement large-scale deep learning systems are well suited to custom hardware. Analog computation has demonstrated power efficiency advantages of multiple orders of magnitude relative to digital systems while performing nonideal computations. In this paper, we investigate typical error sources introduced by analog computational elements and their impact on system-level performance in DeSTIN--a compositional deep learning architecture. These inaccuracies are evaluated on a pattern classification benchmark, clearly demonstrating the robustness of the underlying algorithm to the errors introduced by analog computational elements. A clear understanding of the impacts of nonideal computations is necessary to fully exploit the efficiency of analog circuits.

German National Proficiency Scales in Biology: Internal Structure, Relations to General Cognitive Abilities and Verbal Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kampa, Nele; Köller, Olaf

2016-01-01

National and international large-scale assessments (LSA) have a major impact on educational systems, which raises fundamental questions about the validity of the measures regarding their internal structure and their relations to relevant covariates. Given its importance, research on the validity of instruments specifically developed for LSA is…

Impact of Accumulated Error on Item Response Theory Pre-Equating with Mixed Format Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller, Lisa A.; Keller, Robert; Cook, Robert J.; Colvin, Kimberly F.

2016-01-01

The equating of tests is an essential process in high-stakes, large-scale testing conducted over multiple forms or administrations. By adjusting for differences in difficulty and placing scores from different administrations of a test on a common scale, equating allows scores from these different forms and administrations to be directly compared…

Banana production systems: identification of alternative systems for more sustainable production.

PubMed

Bellamy, Angelina Sanderson

2013-04-01

Large-scale, monoculture production systems dependent on synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, increase yields, but are costly and have deleterious impacts on human health and the environment. This research investigates variations in banana production practices in Costa Rica, to identify alternative systems that combine high productivity and profitability, with reduced reliance on agrochemicals. Farm workers were observed during daily production activities; 39 banana producers and 8 extension workers/researchers were interviewed; and a review of field experiments conducted by the National Banana Corporation between 1997 and 2002 was made. Correspondence analysis showed that there is no structured variation in large-scale banana producers' practices, but two other banana production systems were identified: a small-scale organic system and a small-scale conventional coffee-banana intercropped system. Field-scale research may reveal ways that these practices can be scaled up to achieve a productive and profitable system producing high-quality export bananas with fewer or no pesticides.

The Productive Ward Program™: A Two-Year Implementation Impact Review Using a Longitudinal Multilevel Study.

PubMed

Van Bogaert, Peter; Van Heusden, Danny; Verspuy, Martijn; Wouters, Kristien; Slootmans, Stijn; Van der Straeten, Johnny; Van Aken, Paul; White, Mark

2017-03-01

Aim To investigate the impact of the quality improvement program "Productive Ward - Releasing Time to Care™" using nurses' and midwives' reports of practice environment, burnout, quality of care, job outcomes, as well as workload, decision latitude, social capital, and engagement. Background Despite the requirement for health systems to improve quality and the proliferation of quality improvement programs designed for healthcare, the empirical evidence supporting large-scale quality improvement programs impacting patient satisfaction, staff engagement, and quality care remains sparse. Method A longitudinal study was performed in a large 600-bed acute care university hospital at two measurement intervals for nurse practice environment, burnout, and quality of care and job outcomes and three measurement intervals for workload, decision latitude, social capital, and engagement between June 2011 and November 2014. Results Positive results were identified in practice environment, decision latitude, and social capital. Less favorable results were identified in relation to perceived workload, emotional exhaustion. and vigor. Moreover, measures of quality of care and job satisfaction were reported less favorably. Conclusion This study highlights the need to further understand how to implement large-scale quality improvement programs so that they integrate with daily practices and promote "quality improvement" as "business as usual."

Planetary Scale Impacts and Consequences for the Mars Hemispheric Dichotomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinova, M. M.; Aharonson, O.; Asphaug, E.

2007-12-01

Planetary-scale impacts are events in which the resultant impact basin is a significant fraction of the planet's circumference. The curvature of the planet is expected to be important in the impact process, especially as it relates to the fate of downrange ejecta in off-axis events. Planetary-scale impacts are abundant in the Solar System, especially early in its evolution. A possible candidate planetary-scale impact basin is the Martian hemispheric dichotomy, expressed as a difference in surface elevation, crustal thickness, and surface age between the northern lowlands and the southern highlands. We investigate the characteristics of planetary-scale impacts, and in particular the effects of a mega impact on Mars. We use a 3 dimensional self-gravitational Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) model to simulate the impacts, implementing an olivine equation of state derived for the Tillotson formulation, and use this to establish the initial pressure and internal energy profile of the planet. The parameter space of impactor energy, impactor size, and impact velocity are explored for Mars hemispheric impacts. We find that for a given impact energy, head-on large but slow impacts produce more melt and cover more of the planet with melt than small, fast, and oblique events. Head-on impacts produce crustal blow-off and a melt pool at the antipode. Oblique impacts do not cover much of the planet with melt, but create sizable basins. Various degrees of crustal thickening are apparent around the crater over a length of ~1000 km; this crustal thickening could relax over geological time. Fast impacts eject material with escape velocity many times their own mass. In all cases, less than 10% of the impactor's mass is placed in orbit. For oblique events, a significant fraction of the angular momentum in the system is carried away by escaping material, limiting the efficiency of angular momentum transfer to the planet.

Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

2015-04-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach basically consisted in 1- decomposing both signals (SLP field and precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis and synthesis, 2- generating one statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3- summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD ; in addition, the scale-dependent spatial patterns associated to the model matched quite well those obtained from scale-dependent composite analysis. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either prepciptation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. Further investigations would be required to address the issue of the stationarity of the large-scale/local-scale relationships and to test the capability of the multiresolution ESD model for interannual-to-interdecadal forecasting. In terms of methodological approach, further investigations may concern a fully comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the modeling to the parameter of the multiresolution approach (different families of scaling and wavelet functions used, number of coefficients/degree of smoothness, etc.).

Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

2014-04-01

Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

Fine-Scale Cartography of Human Impacts along French Mediterranean Coasts: A Relevant Map for the Management of Marine Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Holon, Florian; Mouquet, Nicolas; Boissery, Pierre; Bouchoucha, Marc; Delaruelle, Gwenaelle; Tribot, Anne-Sophie; Deter, Julie

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast) or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m). It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica) at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity) are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures at a relevant scale for biodiversity conservation. PMID:26266542

Fine-Scale Cartography of Human Impacts along French Mediterranean Coasts: A Relevant Map for the Management of Marine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Holon, Florian; Mouquet, Nicolas; Boissery, Pierre; Bouchoucha, Marc; Delaruelle, Gwenaelle; Tribot, Anne-Sophie; Deter, Julie

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast) or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m). It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica) at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity) are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures at a relevant scale for biodiversity conservation.

Factors affecting commercial application of embryo technologies in dairy cattle in Europe--a modelling approach.

PubMed

van Arendonk, Johan A M; Bijma, Piter

2003-01-15

Reproductive techniques have a major impact on the structure of breeding programmes, the rate of genetic gain and dissemination of genetic gain in populations. This manuscript reviews the impact of reproductive technologies on the underlying components of genetic gain and inbreeding with special reference to the role of female reproductive technology. Evaluation of alternative breeding schemes should be based on genetic gain while constraining inbreeding. Optimum breeding schemes can be characterised by: decreased importance of sib information; increased accuracy at the expense of intensity; and a factorial mating strategy. If large-scale embryo cloning becomes feasible, this will have a small impact on the rate of genetic gain but will have a large impact on the structure of breeding programmes.

Southern Impact Testing Alliance (SITA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hubbs, Whitney; Roebuck, Brian; Zwiener, Mark; Wells, Brian

2009-01-01

Efforts to form this Alliance began in 2008 to showcase the impact testing capabilities within the southern United States. Impact testing customers can utilize SITA partner capabilities to provide supporting data during all program phases-materials/component/ flight hardware design, development, and qualification. This approach would allow programs to reduce risk by providing low cost testing during early development to flush out possible problems before moving on to larger scale1 higher cost testing. Various SITA partners would participate in impact testing depending on program phase-materials characterization, component/subsystem characterization, full-scale system testing for qualification. SITA partners would collaborate with the customer to develop an integrated test approach during early program phases. Modeling and analysis validation can start with small-scale testing to ensure a level of confidence for the next step large or full-scale conclusive test shots. Impact Testing Facility (ITF) was established and began its research in spacecraft debris shielding in the early 1960's and played a malor role in the International Space Station debris shield development. As a result of return to flight testing after the loss of STS-107 (Columbia) MSFC ITF realized the need to expand their capabilities beyond meteoroid and space debris impact testing. MSFC partnered with the Department of Defense and academic institutions as collaborative efforts to gain and share knowledge that would benefit the Space Agency as well as the DoD. MSFC ITF current capabilities include: Hypervelocity impact testing, ballistic impact testing, and environmental impact testing.

The Impact of an EAP Course on Postgraduate Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storch, Neomy; Tapper, Joanna

2009-01-01

This study assessed the impact of completing an English for Academic Purposes (EAP) course on the writing of postgraduate learners. We begin this paper by describing a course offered for credit to postgraduate international students at a university in Australia, and then report on a large-scale study (n = 69) which investigated the improvement (if…

Field-scale monitoring of the long-term impact and sustainability of drainage water reuse using ECa-directed soil sampling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diminishing freshwater resources have brought attention to the reuse of degraded water as a water resource rather than a disposal problem. Drainage water from tile-drained, irrigated agricultural land is degraded water that is often in large supply, but the long-term impact and sustainability of it...

Beyond reducing fire hazard: fuel treatment impacts on overstory tree survival

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Adrian J. Das; John J. Battles; Danny L. Fry; Kevin D. Krasnow; Scott L. Stephens

2014-01-01

Fuel treatment implementation in dry forest types throughout the western United States is likely to increase in pace and scale in response to increasing incidence of large wildfires. While it is clear that properly implemented fuel treatments are effective at reducing hazardous fire potential, there are ancillary ecological effects that can impact forest...

Assessing fire emissions from tropical savanna and forests of central Brazil

Treesearch

Philip J. Riggan; James A. Brass; Robert N. Lockwood

1993-01-01

Wildfires in tropical forest and savanna are a strong source of trace gas and particulate emissions to the atmosphere, but estimates of the continental-scale impacts are limited by large uncertainties in the rates of fire occurrence and biomass combustion. Satellite-based remote sensing offers promise for characterizing fire physical properties and impacts on the...

Impact of a Faith-Based Social Justice Course on Pre-Service Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Critchfield, Meredith

2018-01-01

Rapid demographic shifts are occurring around the country. United States' public schools are more diverse than any time in history. To help prepare pre-service teachers for these shifts, this small-scale qualitative case study explored the impact of a required social justice course for pre-service educators at a large private Christian university…

Impact of Course Policy Changes on Calculus I DFW Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norton, Paran; Bridges, William; High, Karen

2018-01-01

This paper examines the impact of departmental policy changes on the trend in DFW proportions for introductory calculus at a large research university, where DFW denotes the proportion of students receiving a grade of D, F, or withdrawing from the course. We defined three distinct policy periods: Traditional (2002-2005), Active Learning (SCALE-UP)…

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Louis Iverson; Christopher W. Woodall; Craig D. Allen; David M. Bell; Don C. Bragg; Anthony W. D' Amato; Frank W. Davis; Michelle H. Hersh; Ines Ibanez; Stephen T. Jackson; Stephen Matthews; Neil Pederson; Matthew Peters; Mark W. Schwartz; Kristen M. Waring; Niklaus E. Zimmermann

2016-01-01

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition...

Implementing the Liquid Curriculum: The Impact of Virtual World Learning on Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steils, Nicole; Tombs, Gemma; Mawer, Matt; Savin-Baden, Maggi; Wimpenny, Katherine

2015-01-01

This paper presents findings from a large-scale study which explored the socio-political impact of teaching and learning in virtual worlds on UK higher education. Three key themes emerged with regard to constructing curricula for virtual world teaching and learning, namely designing courses, framing practice and locating specific student needs.…

Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Treesearch

Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

Global change in wilderness areas: disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes

Treesearch

Lisa J. Graumlich

2000-01-01

Human impacts on the Earth’s ecosystems are globally pervasive. Wilderness areas, although largely protected from direct human impact at local scales, nevertheless are subject to global changes in atmospheric composition, climate and biodiversity. Research in wilderness areas plays a critical role in disentangling natural and anthropogenic changes in ecosystems by...

Impact of a Major National Evaluation Study: Israel's Van Leer Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alkin, Marvin C.; Lewy, Arieh

This investigation documents the impact of the Van Leer Study, a large-scale evaluation study of achievement in the primary schools of Israel. It is intended to increase understanding of the process of evaluation utilization, showing how evaluation findings and other kinds of information can work together, over time and in a variety of ways, to…

The Seasonal Predictability of Extreme Wind Events in the Southwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seastrand, Simona Renee

Extreme wind events are a common phenomenon in the Southwest United States. Entities such as the United States Air Force (USAF) find the Southwest appealing for many reasons, primarily for the an expansive, unpopulated, and electronically unpolluted space for large-scale training and testing. However, wind events can cause hazards for the USAF including: surface wind gusts can impact the take-off and landing of all aircraft, can tip the airframes of large wing-surface aircraft during the performance of maneuvers close to the ground, and can even impact weapons systems. This dissertation is comprised of three sections intended to further our knowledge and understanding of wind events in the Southwest. The first section builds a climatology of wind events for seven locations in the Southwest during the twelve 3-month seasons of the year. The first section further examines the wind events in relation to terrain and the large-scale flow of the atmosphere. The second section builds upon the first by taking the wind events and generating mid-level composites for each of the twelve 3-month seasons. In the third section, teleconnections identified as consistent with the large-scale circulation in the second paper were used as predictor variables to build a Poisson regression model for each of the twelve 3-month seasons. The purpose of this research is to increase our understanding of the climatology of extreme wind events, increase our understanding of how the large-scale circulation influences extreme wind events, and create a model to enhance predictability of extreme wind events in the Southwest. Knowledge from this paper will help protect personnel and property associated with not only the USAF, but all those in the Southwest.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of large-scale offshore wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chien; Prinn, Ronald G.

2011-04-01

The vast availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as a potential near-zero greenhouse gas emission technology for meeting future world energy needs while addressing the climate change issue. However, in order to provide even a fraction of the estimated future energy needs, a large-scale deployment of wind turbines (several million) is required. The consequent environmental impacts, and the inherent reliability of such a large-scale usage of intermittent wind power would have to be carefully assessed, in addition to the need to lower the high current unit wind power costs. Our previous study (Wang and Prinn 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 2053) using a three-dimensional climate model suggested that a large deployment of wind turbines over land to meet about 10% of predicted world energy needs in 2100 could lead to a significant temperature increase in the lower atmosphere over the installed regions. A global-scale perturbation to the general circulation patterns as well as to the cloud and precipitation distribution was also predicted. In the later study reported here, we conducted a set of six additional model simulations using an improved climate model to further address the potential environmental and intermittency issues of large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines for differing installation areas and spatial densities. In contrast to the previous land installation results, the offshore wind turbine installations are found to cause a surface cooling over the installed offshore regions. This cooling is due principally to the enhanced latent heat flux from the sea surface to lower atmosphere, driven by an increase in turbulent mixing caused by the wind turbines which was not entirely offset by the concurrent reduction of mean wind kinetic energy. We found that the perturbation of the large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines to the global climate is relatively small compared to the case of land-based installations. However, the intermittency caused by the significant seasonal wind variations over several major offshore sites is substantial, and demands further options to ensure the reliability of large-scale offshore wind power. The method that we used to simulate the offshore wind turbine effect on the lower atmosphere involved simply increasing the ocean surface drag coefficient. While this method is consistent with several detailed fine-scale simulations of wind turbines, it still needs further study to ensure its validity. New field observations of actual wind turbine arrays are definitely required to provide ultimate validation of the model predictions presented here.

Climatic Consequences of a Large-Scale Desertification in Northeast Brazil: A GCM Simulation Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyama, Marcos Daisuke; Nobre, Carlos Afonso

2004-08-01

The climatic impacts of a large-scale desertification in northeast Brazil (NEB) are assessed by using the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (CPTEC COLA) AGCM. Two numerical runs are performed. In the control run, NEB is covered by its natural vegetation (most of NEB is covered by a xeromorphic vegetation known as caatinga); in the desertification run, NEB vegetation is changed to desert (bare soil). Each run consists of five 1-yr numerical integrations. The results for NEB wet season (March May) are analyzed. Desertification results in hydrological cycle weakening: precipitation, evapotranspiration, moisture convergence, and runoff decrease. Surface net radiation decreases and this reduction is almost evenly divided between sensible and latent heat flux. Atmospheric diabatic heating decreases and subsidence anomalies confined at lower atmospheric levels are found. The climatic impacts result from the cooperative action of feedback processes related to albedo increase, plant transpiration suppression, and roughness length decrease. On a larger scale, desertification leads to precipitation increase in the oceanic belt close to the northernmost part of NEB (NNEB). In the NEB NNEB dipole, the anomalies of vertical motion and atmospheric circulation are confined to lower atmospheric levels, that is, 850 700 hPa. At these levels, circulation anomalies resemble the linear baroclinic response of a shallow atmospheric layer (850 700 hPa) to a tropical heat sink placed over NEB at the middle-layer level. Therefore, NEB climate does show sensitivity to a vegetation change to desert. The present work shows the possibility of significant and pronounced climate impacts, on both regional and large scales, if the environmental degradation in NEB continues unchecked.

Quantifying Km-scale Hydrological Exchange Flows under Dynamic Flows and Their Influences on River Corridor Biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Song, X.; Shuai, P.; Hammond, G. E.; Ren, H.; Zachara, J. M.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) in rivers play vital roles in watershed ecological and biogeochemical functions due to their strong capacity to attenuate contaminants and process significant quantities of carbon and nutrients. While most of existing HEF studies focus on headwater systems with the assumption of steady-state flow, there is lack of understanding of large-scale HEFs in high-order regulated rivers that experience high-frequency stage fluctuations. The large variability of HEFs is a result of interactions between spatial heterogeneity in hydrogeologic properties and temporal variation in river discharge induced by natural or anthropogenic perturbations. Our 9-year spatially distributed dataset (water elevation, specific conductance, and temperature) combined with mechanistic hydrobiogeochemical simulations have revealed complex spatial and temporal dynamics in km-scale HEFs and their significant impacts on contaminant plume mobility and hyporheic biogeochemical processes along the Hanford Reach. Extended multidirectional flow behaviors of unconfined, river corridor groundwater were observed hundreds of meters inland from the river shore resulting from discharge-dependent HEFs. An appropriately sized modeling domain to capture the impact of regional groundwater flow as well as knowledge of subsurface structures controlling intra-aquifer hydrologic connectivity were essential to realistically model transient storage in this large-scale river corridor. This work showed that both river water and mobile groundwater contaminants could serve as effective tracers of HEFs, thus providing valuable information for evaluating and validating the HEF models. Multimodal residence time distributions with long tails were resulted from the mixture of long and short exchange pathways, which consequently impact the carbon and nutrient cycling within the river corridor. Improved understanding of HEFs using integrated observational and modeling approaches sheds light on developing fundamental understanding of the influences of HEFs on water quality, nutrient dynamics, and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridor systems.

The impact of urban regeneration programmes on health and health-related behaviour: Evaluation of the Dutch District Approach 6.5 years from the start.

PubMed

Ruijsbroek, Annemarie; Wong, Albert; Kunst, Anton E; van den Brink, Carolien; van Oers, Hans A M; Droomers, Mariël; Stronks, Karien

2017-01-01

Large-scale regeneration programmes to improve the personal conditions and living circumstances in deprived areas may affect health and the lifestyle of the residents. Previous evaluations concluded that a large-scale urban regeneration programme in the Netherlands had some positive effects within 3.5 years. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the effects at the longer run. With a quasi-experimental research design we assessed changes in the prevalence of general health, mental health, physical activity, overweight, obesity, and smoking between the pre-intervention (2003-04 -mid 2008) and intervention period (mid 2008-2013-14) in 40 deprived target districts and comparably deprived control districts. We used the Difference-in-Difference (DiD) to assess programme impact. Additionally, we stratified analyses by sex and by the intensity of the regeneration programme. Changes in health and health related behaviours from pre-intervention to the intervention period were about equally large in the target districts as in control districts. DiD impact estimates were inconsistent and not statistically significant. Sex differences in DiD estimates were not consistent or significant. Furthermore, DiD impact estimates were not consistently larger in target districts with more intensive intervention programmes. We found no evidence that this Dutch urban regeneration programme had an impact in the longer run on self-reported health and related behaviour at the area level.

Impact of incomplete metal coverage on the electrical properties of metal-CNT contacts: A large-scale ab initio study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fediai, Artem, E-mail: artem.fediai@nano.tu-dresden.de; Ryndyk, Dmitry A.; Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden, TU Dresden, 01062 Dresden

2016-09-05

Using a dedicated combination of the non-equilibrium Green function formalism and large-scale density functional theory calculations, we investigated how incomplete metal coverage influences two of the most important electrical properties of carbon nanotube (CNT)-based transistors: contact resistance and its scaling with contact length, and maximum current. These quantities have been derived from parameter-free simulations of atomic systems that are as close as possible to experimental geometries. Physical mechanisms that govern these dependences have been identified for various metals, representing different CNT-metal interaction strengths from chemisorption to physisorption. Our results pave the way for an application-oriented design of CNT-metal contacts.

Cross-scale modelling of the climate-change mitigation potential of biochar systems: Global implications of nano-scale processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolf, Dominic; Lehmann, Johannes

2014-05-01

With CO2 emissions still tracking the upper bounds of projected emissions scenarios, it is becoming increasingly urgent to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and increasingly likely that restricting future atmospheric GHG concentrations to within safe limits will require an eventual transition towards net negative GHG emissions. Few measures capable of providing negative emissions at a globally-significant scale are currently known. Two that are most often considered include carbon sequestration in biomass and soil, and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In common with these two approaches, biochar also relies on the use of photosynthetically-bound carbon in biomass. But, because biomass and land are limited, it is critical that these resources are efficiently allocated between biomass/soil sequestration, bioenergy, BECCS, biochar, and other competing uses such as food, fiber and biodiversity. In many situations, biochar can offer advantages that may make it the preferred use of a limited biomass supply. These advantages include that: 1) Biochar can provide valuable benefits to agriculture by improving soil fertility and crop production, and reducing fertlizer and irrigation requirements. 2) Biochar is significantly more stable than biomass or other forms of soil carbon, thus lowering the risk of future losses compared to sequestration in biomass or soil organic carbon. 3) Gases and volatiles produced by pyrolysis can be combusted for energy (which may offset fossil fuel emissions). 4) Biochar can further lower GHG emissions by reducing nitrous oxide emissions from soil and by enhancing net primary production. Determining the optimal use of biomass requires that we are able to model not only the climate-change mitigation impact of each option, but also their economic and wider environmental impacts. Thus, what is required is a systems modelling approach that integrates components representing soil biogeochemistry, hydrology, crop production, land use, thermochemical conversion (to both biochar and energy products), climate, economics, and also the interactions between these components. Early efforts to model the life-cycle impacts of biochar systems have typically used simple empirical estimates of the strength of various feedback mechanisms, such as the impact of biochar on crop-growth, soil GHG fluxes, and native soil organic carbon. However, an environmental management perspective demands consideration of impacts over a longer time-scale and in broader agroecological situations than can be reliably extrapolated from simple empirical relationships derived from trials and experiments of inevitably limited scope and duration. Therefore, reliable quantification of long-term and large-scale impacts demands an understanding of the fundamental underlying mechanisms. Here, a systems-modelling approach that incorporates mechanistic assumptions will be described, and used to examine how uncertainties in the biogeochemical processes which drive the biochar-plant-soil interactions (particularly those responsible for priming, crop-growth and soil GHG emissions) translate into sensitivities of large scale and long-term impacts. This approach elucidates the aspects of process-level biochar biogeochemistry most critical to determining the large-scale GHG and economic impacts, and thus provides a useful guide to future model-led research.

Sustainable Land Management's potential for climate change adaptation in Mediterranean environments: a regional scale assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eekhout, Joris P. C.; de Vente, Joris

2017-04-01

Climate change has strong implications for many essential ecosystem services, such as provision of drinking and irrigation water, soil erosion and flood control. Especially large impacts are expected in the Mediterranean, already characterised by frequent floods and droughts. The projected higher frequency of extreme weather events under climate change will lead to an increase of plant water stress, reservoir inflow and sediment yield. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) practices are increasingly promoted as climate change adaptation strategy and to increase resilience against extreme events. However, there is surprisingly little known about their impacts and trade-offs on ecosystem services at regional scales. The aim of this research is to provide insight in the potential of SLM for climate change adaptation, focusing on catchment-scale impacts on soil and water resources. We applied a spatially distributed hydrological model (SPHY), coupled with an erosion model (MUSLE) to the Segura River catchment (15,978 km2) in SE Spain. We run the model for three periods: one reference (1981-2000) and two future scenarios (2031-2050 and 2081-2100). Climate input data for the future scenarios were based on output from 9 Regional Climate Models and for different emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Realistic scenarios of SLM practices were developed based on a local stakeholder consultation process. The evaluated SLM scenarios focussed on reduced tillage and organic amendments under tree and cereal crops, covering 24% and 15% of the catchment, respectively. In the reference scenario, implementation of SLM at the field-scale led to an increase of the infiltration capacity of the soil and a reduction of surface runoff up to 29%, eventually reducing catchment-scale reservoir inflow by 6%. This led to a reduction of field-scale sediment yield of more than 50% and a reduced catchment-scale sediment flux to reservoirs of 5%. SLM was able to fully mitigate the effect of climate change at the field-scale and partly at the catchment-scale. Therefore, we conclude that large-scale adoption of SLM can effectively contribute to climate change adaptation by increasing the soil infiltration capacity, the soil water retention capacity and soil moisture content in the rootzone, leading to less crop stress. These findings of regional scale impacts of SLM are of high relevance for land-owners, -managers and policy makers to design effective climate change adaptation strategies.

Solar flare activity - Evidence for large-scale changes in the past

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zook, H. A.; Hartung, J. B.; Storzer, D.

1977-01-01

An analysis of radar and photographic meteor data and of spacecraft meteoroid-penetration data indicates that there probably has not been a large increase in meteoroid impact rates in the last 10,000 yr. The solar-flare tracks observed in the glass linings of meteoroid impact pits on lunar rock 15205 are therefore reanalyzed assuming a meteoroid flux that is constant in time. Based on this assumption, the data suggest that the production rate of Fe-group solar-flare tracks may have varied by as much as a factor of 50 on a time scale of about 10,000 yr. No independently obtained data are known to require conflict with this interpretation. Confidence in this conclusion is somewhat qualified by the experimental and analytical uncertainties involved, but the conclusion nevertheless remains the present 'best' explanation for the observed data trends.

The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) sounding network: operations, processing and analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, M. P.; Toto, T.; Troyan, D.

2015-01-01

The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) took place during the spring of 2011 centered in north-central Oklahoma, USA. The main goal of this field campaign was to capture the dynamical and microphysical characteristics of precipitating convective systems in the US Central Plains. A major component of the campaign was a six-site radiosonde array designed to capture the large-scale variability of the atmospheric state with the intent of deriving model forcing data sets. Over the course of the 46-day MC3E campaign, a total of 1362 radiosondes were launched from the enhanced sonde network. This manuscript provides details on the instrumentationmore » used as part of the sounding array, the data processing activities including quality checks and humidity bias corrections and an analysis of the impacts of bias correction and algorithm assumptions on the determination of convective levels and indices. It is found that corrections for known radiosonde humidity biases and assumptions regarding the characteristics of the surface convective parcel result in significant differences in the derived values of convective levels and indices in many soundings. In addition, the impact of including the humidity corrections and quality controls on the thermodynamic profiles that are used in the derivation of a large-scale model forcing data set are investigated. The results show a significant impact on the derived large-scale vertical velocity field illustrating the importance of addressing these humidity biases.« less

The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) sounding network: operations, processing and analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, M. P.; Toto, T.; Troyan, D.

2015-01-27

The Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) took place during the spring of 2011 centered in north-central Oklahoma, USA. The main goal of this field campaign was to capture the dynamical and microphysical characteristics of precipitating convective systems in the US Central Plains. A major component of the campaign was a six-site radiosonde array designed to capture the large-scale variability of the atmospheric state with the intent of deriving model forcing data sets. Over the course of the 46-day MC3E campaign, a total of 1362 radiosondes were launched from the enhanced sonde network. This manuscript provides details on the instrumentationmore » used as part of the sounding array, the data processing activities including quality checks and humidity bias corrections and an analysis of the impacts of bias correction and algorithm assumptions on the determination of convective levels and indices. It is found that corrections for known radiosonde humidity biases and assumptions regarding the characteristics of the surface convective parcel result in significant differences in the derived values of convective levels and indices in many soundings. In addition, the impact of including the humidity corrections and quality controls on the thermodynamic profiles that are used in the derivation of a large-scale model forcing data set are investigated. The results show a significant impact on the derived large-scale vertical velocity field illustrating the importance of addressing these humidity biases.« less

Large scale food retailing as an intervention for diet and health: quasi-experimental evaluation of a natural experiment

PubMed Central

Cummins, S.; Petticrew, M.; Higgins, C.; Findlay, A.; Sparks, L.

2005-01-01

Design: Prospective quasi-experimental design comparing baseline and follow up data in an "intervention" community with a matched "comparison" community in Glasgow, UK. Participants: 412 men and women aged 16 or over for whom follow up data on fruit and vegetable consumption and GHQ-12 were available. Main outcome measures: Fruit and vegetable consumption in portions per day, poor self reported health, and poor psychological health (GHQ-12). Main results: Adjusting for age, sex, educational attainment, and employment status there was no population impact on daily fruit and vegetable consumption, self reported, and psychological health. There was some evidence for a net reduction in the prevalence of poor psychological health for residents who directly engaged with the intervention. Conclusions: Government policy has advocated using large scale food retailing as a social intervention to improve diet and health in poor communities. In contrast with a previous uncontrolled study this study did not find evidence for a net intervention effect on fruit and vegetable consumption, although there was evidence for an improvement in psychological health for those who directly engaged with the intervention. Although definitive conclusions about the effect of large scale retailing on diet and health in deprived communities cannot be drawn from non-randomised controlled study designs, evaluations of the impacts of natural experiments may offer the best opportunity to generate evidence about the health impacts of retail interventions in poor communities. PMID:16286490

Impacts devalue the potential of large-scale terrestrial CO2 removal through biomass plantations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boysen, L. R.; Lucht, W.; Gerten, D.; Heck, V.

2016-09-01

Large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) are often considered a feasible and safe climate engineering proposal for extracting carbon from the atmosphere and, thereby, reducing global mean temperatures. However, the capacity of such terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) strategies and their larger Earth system impacts remain to be comprehensively studied—even more so under higher carbon emissions and progressing climate change. Here, we use a spatially explicit process-based biosphere model to systematically quantify the potentials and trade-offs of a range of BP scenarios dedicated to tCDR, representing different assumptions about which areas are convertible. Based on a moderate CO2 concentration pathway resulting in a global mean warming of 2.5 °C above preindustrial level by the end of this century—similar to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5—we assume tCDR to be implemented when a warming of 1.5 °C is reached in year 2038. Our results show that BPs can slow down the progression of increasing cumulative carbon in the atmosphere only sufficiently if emissions are reduced simultaneously like in the underlying RCP4.5 trajectory. The potential of tCDR to balance additional, unabated emissions leading towards a business-as-usual pathway alike RCP8.5 is therefore very limited. Furthermore, in the required large-scale applications, these plantations would induce significant trade-offs with food production and biodiversity and exert impacts on forest extent, biogeochemical cycles and biogeophysical properties.

Finite-Time and -Size Scalings in the Evaluation of Large Deviation Functions. Numerical Analysis in Continuous Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Nemoto, Takahiro; Lecomte, Vivien

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provide a numerical tool allowing their study, by means of simulating a large number of copies of the system, which are subjected to a selection rule that favors the rare trajectories of interest. However, such algorithms are plagued by finite simulation time- and finite population size- effects that can render their use delicate. Using the continuous-time cloning algorithm, we analyze the finite-time and finite-size scalings of estimators of the large deviation functions associated to the distribution of the rare trajectories. We use these scalings in order to propose a numerical approach which allows to extract the infinite-time and infinite-size limit of these estimators.

Large-scale tidal effect on redshift-space power spectrum in a finite-volume survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akitsu, Kazuyuki; Takada, Masahiro; Li, Yin

2017-04-01

Long-wavelength matter inhomogeneities contain cleaner information on the nature of primordial perturbations as well as the physics of the early Universe. The large-scale coherent overdensity and tidal force, not directly observable for a finite-volume galaxy survey, are both related to the Hessian of large-scale gravitational potential and therefore are of equal importance. We show that the coherent tidal force causes a homogeneous anisotropic distortion of the observed distribution of galaxies in all three directions, perpendicular and parallel to the line-of-sight direction. This effect mimics the redshift-space distortion signal of galaxy peculiar velocities, as well as a distortion by the Alcock-Paczynski effect. We quantify its impact on the redshift-space power spectrum to the leading order, and discuss its importance for ongoing and upcoming galaxy surveys.

Large-Scale medical image analytics: Recent methodologies, applications and Future directions.

PubMed

Zhang, Shaoting; Metaxas, Dimitris

2016-10-01

Despite the ever-increasing amount and complexity of annotated medical image data, the development of large-scale medical image analysis algorithms has not kept pace with the need for methods that bridge the semantic gap between images and diagnoses. The goal of this position paper is to discuss and explore innovative and large-scale data science techniques in medical image analytics, which will benefit clinical decision-making and facilitate efficient medical data management. Particularly, we advocate that the scale of image retrieval systems should be significantly increased at which interactive systems can be effective for knowledge discovery in potentially large databases of medical images. For clinical relevance, such systems should return results in real-time, incorporate expert feedback, and be able to cope with the size, quality, and variety of the medical images and their associated metadata for a particular domain. The design, development, and testing of the such framework can significantly impact interactive mining in medical image databases that are growing rapidly in size and complexity and enable novel methods of analysis at much larger scales in an efficient, integrated fashion. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version ofmore » the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.« less

The lost summer: Community experiences of large wildfires in Trinity County, California

Treesearch

Emily J. Davis; Cassandra Moseley; Pamela Jakes; Max Nielsen-Pincus

2011-01-01

As wildfires are increasing in scale and duration, and communities are increasingly located where these wildfires are occurring, we need a clearer understanding of how large wildfires affect economic and social well being. These wildfires can have complex impacts on rural public lands communities. They can threaten homes, public health, and livelihoods. Wildfires can...

Competition versus Cooperation: Implications for Music Teachers Following Students Feedback from Participation in a Large-Scale Cooperative Music Festival

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowe, Geoffrey M.

2018-01-01

Competition is reported in the general education literature as having a largely detrimental impact upon student engagement and long-term motivation, yet competition has long been an accepted part of the music education ensemble landscape. Adjudicated ensemble competitions and competition-festivals are commonplace in most Australian states, as…

Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation over Llobregat river basin in Catalonia (Spain) using three downscaling methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballinas, R.; Versini, P.-A.; Sempere, D.; Escaler, I.

2009-09-01

Any long-term change in the patterns of average weather in a global or regional scale is called climate change. It may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological parameters may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc. Recent studies in Catalonia foresee changes in hydrological systems caused by climate change. This will lead to alterations in the hydrological cycle that could impact in land use, in the regimen of water extractions, in the hydrological characteristics of the territory and reduced groundwater recharge. Besides, can expect a loss of flow in rivers. In addition to possible increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall, being necessary to modify the design of infrastructure. Because this, it work focuses on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia, the Llobregat River Basin. The basin is the hub of the province of Barcelona. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, as drinking water production, agricultural irrigation, industry and hydro-electrical energy production. In consequence, many companies and communities depend on these resources. To study the impact of climate change in the Llobregat basin, storms (frequency, intensity) mainly, we will need regional climate change information. A regional climate is determined by interactions at large, regional and local scales. The general circulation models (GCMs) are run at too coarse resolution to permit accurate description of these regional and local interactions. So far, they have been unable to provide consistent estimates of climate change on a local scale. Several regionalization techniques have been developed to bridge the gap between the large-scale information provided by GCMs and fine spatial scales required for regional and environmental impact studies. Downscaling methods to assess the effect of large-scale circulations on local parameters have. Statistical downscaling methods are based on the view that regional climate can be conditioned by two factors: large-scale climatic state and regional/local features. Local climate information is derived by first developing a statistical model which relates large-scale variables or "predictors" for which GCMs are trustable to regional or local surface "predictands" for which models are less skilful. The main advantage of these methods is that they are computationally inexpensive, and can be applied to outputs from different GCM experiments. Three statistical downscaling methods are applied: Analogue method, Delta Change and Direct Forcing. These methods have been used to determine daily precipitation projections at rain gauge location to study the intensity, frequency and variability of storms in a context of climate change in the Llobregat River Basin in Catalonia, Spain. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program). It deals with Medium and long term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Two stakeholders involved in the project provided the historical time series: Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).

Sedimentary processes of the Bagnold Dunes: Implications for the eolian rock record of Mars.

PubMed

Ewing, R C; Lapotre, M G A; Lewis, K W; Day, M; Stein, N; Rubin, D M; Sullivan, R; Banham, S; Lamb, M P; Bridges, N T; Gupta, S; Fischer, W W

2017-12-01

The Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity visited two active wind-blown sand dunes within Gale crater, Mars, which provided the first ground-based opportunity to compare Martian and terrestrial eolian dune sedimentary processes and study a modern analog for the Martian eolian rock record. Orbital and rover images of these dunes reveal terrestrial-like and uniquely Martian processes. The presence of grainfall, grainflow, and impact ripples resembled terrestrial dunes. Impact ripples were present on all dune slopes and had a size and shape similar to their terrestrial counterpart. Grainfall and grainflow occurred on dune and large-ripple lee slopes. Lee slopes were ~29° where grainflows were present and ~33° where grainfall was present. These slopes are interpreted as the dynamic and static angles of repose, respectively. Grain size measured on an undisturbed impact ripple ranges between 50 μm and 350 μm with an intermediate axis mean size of 113 μm (median: 103 μm). Dissimilar to dune eolian processes on Earth, large, meter-scale ripples were present on all dune slopes. Large ripples had nearly symmetric to strongly asymmetric topographic profiles and heights ranging between 12 cm and 28 cm. The composite observations of the modern sedimentary processes highlight that the Martian eolian rock record is likely different from its terrestrial counterpart because of the large ripples, which are expected to engender a unique scale of cross stratification. More broadly, however, in the Bagnold Dune Field as on Earth, dune-field pattern dynamics and basin-scale boundary conditions will dictate the style and distribution of sedimentary processes.

Intervention for First Graders with Limited Number Knowledge: Large-Scale Replication of a Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gersten, Russell; Rolfhus, Eric; Clarke, Ben; Decker, Lauren E.; Wilkins, Chuck; Dimino, Joseph

2015-01-01

Replication studies are extremely rare in education. This randomized controlled trial (RCT) is a scale-up replication of Fuchs et al., which in a sample of 139 found a statistically significant positive impact for Number Rockets, a small-group intervention for at-risk first graders that focused on building understanding of number operations. The…

Simulation-optimization of large agro-hydrosystems using a decomposition approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuetze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2014-05-01

In this contribution a stochastic simulation-optimization framework for decision support for optimal planning and operation of water supply of large agro-hydrosystems is presented. It is based on a decomposition solution strategy which allows for (i) the usage of numerical process models together with efficient Monte Carlo simulations for a reliable estimation of higher quantiles of the minimum agricultural water demand for full and deficit irrigation strategies at small scale (farm level), and (ii) the utilization of the optimization results at small scale for solving water resources management problems at regional scale. As a secondary result of several simulation-optimization runs at the smaller scale stochastic crop-water production functions (SCWPF) for different crops are derived which can be used as a basic tool for assessing the impact of climate variability on risk for potential yield. In addition, microeconomic impacts of climate change and the vulnerability of the agro-ecological systems are evaluated. The developed methodology is demonstrated through its application on a real-world case study for the South Al-Batinah region in the Sultanate of Oman where a coastal aquifer is affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture.

Non-Gaussianity and Excursion Set Theory: Halo Bias

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adshead, Peter; Baxter, Eric J.; Dodelson, Scott

2012-09-01

We study the impact of primordial non-Gaussianity generated during inflation on the bias of halos using excursion set theory. We recapture the familiar result that the bias scales asmore » $$k^{-2}$$ on large scales for local type non-Gaussianity but explicitly identify the approximations that go into this conclusion and the corrections to it. We solve the more complicated problem of non-spherical halos, for which the collapse threshold is scale dependent.« less

Modelling financial markets with agents competing on different time scales and with different amount of information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlmuth, Johannes; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

2006-05-01

We use agent-based models to study the competition among investors who use trading strategies with different amount of information and with different time scales. We find that mixing agents that trade on the same time scale but with different amount of information has a stabilizing impact on the large and extreme fluctuations of the market. Traders with the most information are found to be more likely to arbitrage traders who use less information in the decision making. On the other hand, introducing investors who act on two different time scales has a destabilizing effect on the large and extreme price movements, increasing the volatility of the market. Closeness in time scale used in the decision making is found to facilitate the creation of local trends. The larger the overlap in commonly shared information the more the traders in a mixed system with different time scales are found to profit from the presence of traders acting at another time scale than themselves.

Large-Scale Impact Cratering and Early Earth Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grieve, R. A. F.; Cintala, M. J.

1997-01-01

The surface of the Moon attests to the importance of large-scale impact in its early crustal evolution. Previous models of the effects of a massive bombardment on terrestrial crustal evolution have relied on analogies with the Moon, with allowances for the presence of water and a thinner lithosphere. It is now apparent that strict lunar-terrestrial analogies are incorrect because of the "differential scaling" of crater dimensions and melt volumes with event size and planetary gravity. Impact melt volumes and "ancient cavity dimensions for specific impacts were modeled according to previous procedures. In the terrestrial case, the melt volume (V(sub m)) exceeds that of the transient cavity (V(sub tc)) at diameters > or = 400 km. This condition is reached on the Moon only with transient cavity diameters > or = 3000 km, equivalent to whole Moon melting. The melt volumes in these large impact events are minimum estimates, since, at these sizes, the higher temperature of the target rocks at depth will increase melt production. Using the modification-scaling relation of Croft, a transient cavity diameter of about 400 km in the terrestrial environment corresponds to an expected final impact "basin" diameter of about 900 km. Such a "basin" would be comparable in dimensions to the lunar basin Orientale. This 900-km "basin" on the early Earth, however, would not have had the appearance of Orientale. It would have been essentially a melt pool, and, morphologically, would have had more in common with the palimpsests structures on Callisto and Ganymede. With the terrestrial equivalents to the large multiring basins of the Moon being manifested as muted palimpsest-like structures filled with impact melt, it is unlikely they played a role in establishing the freeboard on the early Earth. The composition of the massive impact melt sheets (> 10 (exp 7) cu km) produced in "basin-forming" events on the early Earth would have most likely ranged from basaltic to more mafic for the largest impacts, where the melt volume would have reached well into the mantle. Any contribution from adiabatic melting or shock heating of the asthenosphere would have had similar mafic compositions. The depth of the melt sheets is unknown but would have been in the multilkilometer range. Bodies of basaltic melt > or = 300 m thick differentiate in the terrestrial environment, with the degree of differentiation being a function of the thickness of the body. We therefore expect that these thick, closed-system melt pools would have differentiated into an ultramafic-mafic base and felsic top. If only 10% of the impact melt produced in a single event creating a 400-km diameter transient cavity evolved into felsic differentiates, they would be comparable in volume to the Columbia River basalts. It has been estimated that at least 200 impact events of this size or larger occurred on the early Earth during a period of heavy bombardment. We speculate that these massive differentiated melt sheets may have had a role in the formation of the initial felsic component of the Earth's crust. Additional information is contained in the original.

Synoptic circulation and temperature pattern during severe wildland fires

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman

1996-01-01

Large-scale changes in the atmosphere associated with a globally changed climate and changes in climatic variability may have important regional impacts on the frequency and severity of wildland fires in the future.

Management applications of discontinuity theory

EPA Science Inventory

1.Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management...

The Transuranium Elements.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seaborg, Glenn T.

1985-01-01

Discusses the unusual chemistry of the transuranium elements as well as their impact on the periodic table. Also considers the practical applications of transuranium isotopes, such as their use in nuclear fuel for the large-scale generation of electricity. (JN)

Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K. J.; Stockle, C. O.; Nelson, R. L.; Kruger, C. E.; Brady, M. P.; Malek, K.; Dinesh, S. T.; Barber, M. E.; Hamlet, A. F.; Yorgey, G. G.; Adam, J. C.

2018-03-01

Adaptation to a changing climate is critical to address future global food and water security challenges. While these challenges are global, successful adaptation strategies are often generated at regional scales; therefore, regional-scale studies are critical to inform adaptation decision making. While climate change affects both water supply and demand, water demand is relatively understudied, especially at regional scales. The goal of this work is to address this gap, and characterize the direct impacts of near-term (for the 2030s) climate change and elevated CO2 levels on regional-scale crop yields and irrigation demands for the Columbia River basin (CRB). This question is addressed through a coupled crop-hydrology model that accounts for site-specific and crop-specific characteristics that control regional-scale response to climate change. The overall near-term outlook for agricultural production in the CRB is largely positive, with yield increases for most crops and small overall increases in irrigation demand. However, there are crop-specific and location-specific negative impacts as well, and the aggregate regional response of irrigation demands to climate change is highly sensitive to the spatial crop mix. Low-value pasture/hay varieties of crops—typically not considered in climate change assessments—play a significant role in determining the regional response of irrigation demands to climate change, and thus cannot be overlooked. While, the overall near-term outlook for agriculture in the region is largely positive, there may be potential for a negative outlook further into the future, and it is important to consider this in long-term planning.

Dynamical Origin and Terrestrial Impact Flux of Large Near-Earth Asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesvorný, David; Roig, Fernando

2018-01-01

Dynamical models of the asteroid delivery from the main belt suggest that the current impact flux of diameter D> 10 km asteroids on the Earth is ≃0.5–1 Gyr‑1. Studies of the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) population find a much higher flux, with ≃ 7 D> 10 km asteroid impacts per Gyr. Here we show that this problem is rooted in the application of impact probability of small NEAs (≃1.5 Gyr‑1 per object), whose population is well characterized, to large NEAs. In reality, large NEAs evolve from the main belt by different escape routes, have a different orbital distribution, and lower impact probabilities (0.8 ± 0.3 Gyr‑1 per object) than small NEAs. In addition, we find that the current population of two D> 10 km NEAs (Ganymed and Eros) is a slight fluctuation over the long-term average of 1.1+/- 0.5 D> 10 km NEAs in a steady state. These results have important implications for our understanding of the occurrence of the K/T-scale impacts on the terrestrial worlds.

Numerical Investigation of Rockfall Impacts on Muckpiles for Underground Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Effeindzourou, Anna; Giacomini, Anna; Thoeni, Klaus; Sloan, Scott W.

2017-06-01

Small-scale waste rock piles or muckpiles are commonly used as energy absorption barriers in various surface mining applications. This paper numerically investigates the impact behaviour of blocks on muckpiles used as cushion layer on top of underground portal entries. A three-dimensional discrete element model is implemented into the open-source framework YADE and validated using full-scale experimental data. The model allows estimating the energy absorption capacity of the muckpile and the impact forces acting on the portal structure. It also provides valuable information on the rebound characteristics which are useful for the definition of the potential safety areas in the vicinity of an underground entry. In order to show its capabilities, the model is applied to a large number of cases representing potential design conditions. The influence of block mass, impact velocity and absorbing cushion thickness on the forces at the base of the muckpile and the rebound trajectories after impact are investigated.

Drought forecasting in Luanhe River basin involving climatic indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Weinan; Wang, Yixuan; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping; Smith, Ronald J.

2017-11-01

Drought is regarded as one of the most severe natural disasters globally. This is especially the case in Tianjin City, Northern China, where drought can affect economic development and people's livelihoods. Drought forecasting, the basis of drought management, is an important mitigation strategy. In this paper, we evolve a probabilistic forecasting model, which forecasts transition probabilities from a current Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value to a future SPI class, based on conditional distribution of multivariate normal distribution to involve two large-scale climatic indices at the same time, and apply the forecasting model to 26 rain gauges in the Luanhe River basin in North China. The establishment of the model and the derivation of the SPI are based on the hypothesis of aggregated monthly precipitation that is normally distributed. Pearson correlation and Shapiro-Wilk normality tests are used to select appropriate SPI time scale and large-scale climatic indices. Findings indicated that longer-term aggregated monthly precipitation, in general, was more likely to be considered normally distributed and forecasting models should be applied to each gauge, respectively, rather than to the whole basin. Taking Liying Gauge as an example, we illustrate the impact of the SPI time scale and lead time on transition probabilities. Then, the controlled climatic indices of every gauge are selected by Pearson correlation test and the multivariate normality of SPI, corresponding climatic indices for current month and SPI 1, 2, and 3 months later are demonstrated using Shapiro-Wilk normality test. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation patterns on transition probabilities. Finally, we use a score method to evaluate and compare the performance of the three forecasting models and compare them with two traditional models which forecast transition probabilities from a current to a future SPI class. The results show that the three proposed models outperform the two traditional models and involving large-scale climatic indices can improve the forecasting accuracy.

Global patterns in the impact of marine herbivores on benthic primary producers.

PubMed

Poore, Alistair G B; Campbell, Alexandra H; Coleman, Ross A; Edgar, Graham J; Jormalainen, Veijo; Reynolds, Pamela L; Sotka, Erik E; Stachowicz, John J; Taylor, Richard B; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Duffy, J Emmett

2012-08-01

Despite the importance of consumers in structuring communities, and the widespread assumption that consumption is strongest at low latitudes, empirical tests for global scale patterns in the magnitude of consumer impacts are limited. In marine systems, the long tradition of experimentally excluding herbivores in their natural environments allows consumer impacts to be quantified on global scales using consistent methodology. We present a quantitative synthesis of 613 marine herbivore exclusion experiments to test the influence of consumer traits, producer traits and the environment on the strength of herbivore impacts on benthic producers. Across the globe, marine herbivores profoundly reduced producer abundance (by 68% on average), with strongest effects in rocky intertidal habitats and the weakest effects on habitats dominated by vascular plants. Unexpectedly, we found little or no influence of latitude or mean annual water temperature. Instead, herbivore impacts differed most consistently among producer taxonomic and morphological groups. Our results show that grazing impacts on plant abundance are better predicted by producer traits than by large-scale variation in habitat or mean temperature, and that there is a previously unrecognised degree of phylogenetic conservatism in producer susceptibility to consumption. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Psychosocial correlates of fatigue in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Schwartz, C E; Coulthard-Morris, L; Zeng, Q

1996-02-01

To explore: (1) the interrelation among the neuropsychological, psychological, and psychosocial factors and fatigue as measured by the Multidimensional Assessment of Fatigue scale, and (2) the impact of fatigue on role performance. Clinical interview with neuropsychological testing and cross-sectional study by mail. Multiple sclerosis (MS) clinic registry of a large Boston teaching hospital. 139 MS patients representing a broad range of disability. The Multidimensional Assessment of Fatigue (MAF) scale, the Extended Disability Status Scale, the Sickness Impact Profile, Rao cognitive battery, the Trailmaking Test, depression, anxiety, and social activity limitations subscales from the Arthritis Impact Measurement Scales, and the Ryff Happiness Scale. Stepwise multiple regression analyses revealed that having a low sense of environmental mastery was the best psychosocial predictor of both global fatigue and fatigue-related distress, after adjusting for sociodemographic and medical factors. Further, people who reported being more depressed tended to report more severe fatigue. Neuropsychological performance was not associated with fatigue. Fatigue was found to limit social, work, and overall role performance, but not physical role performance. People who feel that they can choose or create environments suitable to their psychic or physical conditions report less global fatigue and less fatigue-related distress, and fatigue can have an important impact on role performance. The implications of these findings for designing fatigue management interventions are discussed.

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccination at the Farm-Level in South Vietnam.

PubMed

Truong, Dinh Bao; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Bertagnoli, Stéphane; Delabouglise, Alexis; Grosbois, Vladimir; Peyre, Marisa

2018-01-01

This study aimed to analyze the financial impact of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in cattle at the farm-level and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of biannual vaccination strategy to prevent and eradicate FMD for cattle in South Vietnam. Production data were collected from 49 small-scale dairy farms, 15 large-scale dairy farms, and 249 beef farms of Long An and Tay Ninh province using a questionaire. Financial data of FMD impacts were collected using participatory tools in 37 villages of Long An province. The net present value, i.e., the difference between the benefits (additional revenue and saved costs) and costs (additional costs and revenue foregone), of FMD vaccination in large-scale dairy farms was 2.8 times higher than in small-scale dairy farms and 20 times higher than in beef farms. The BCR of FMD vaccination over 1 year in large-scale dairy farms, small-scale dairy farms, and beef farms were 11.6 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 6.42-16.45], 9.93 (95% CI 3.45-16.47), and 3.02 (95% CI 0.76-7.19), respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that varying the vaccination cost had more effect on the BCR of cattle vaccination than varying the market price. This benefit-cost analysis of biannual vaccination strategy showed that investment in FMD prevention can be financially profitable, and therefore sustainable, for dairy farmers. For beef cattle, it is less certain that vaccination is profitable. Additional benefit-cost analysis study of vaccination strategies at the national-level would be required to evaluate and adapt the national strategy to achieve eradication of this disease in Vietnam.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region.

PubMed

Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

2017-07-01

The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0-20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-Scale Analysis for Characterizing Near-Field Constituent Concentrations in the Context of a Macro-Scale Semi-Lagrangian Numerical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yearsley, J. R.

2017-12-01

The semi-Lagrangian numerical scheme employed by RBM, a model for simulating time-dependent, one-dimensional water quality constituents in advection-dominated rivers, is highly scalable both in time and space. Although the model has been used at length scales of 150 meters and time scales of three hours, the majority of applications have been at length scales of 1/16th degree latitude/longitude (about 5 km) or greater and time scales of one day. Applications of the method at these scales has proven successful for characterizing the impacts of climate change on water temperatures in global rivers and on the vulnerability of thermoelectric power plants to changes in cooling water temperatures in large river systems. However, local effects can be very important in terms of ecosystem impacts, particularly in the case of developing mixing zones for wastewater discharges with pollutant loadings limited by regulations imposed by the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA). Mixing zone analyses have usually been decoupled from large-scale watershed influences by developing scenarios that represent critical scenarios for external processes associated with streamflow and weather conditions . By taking advantage of the particle-tracking characteristics of the numerical scheme, RBM can provide results at any point in time within the model domain. We develop a proof of concept for locations in the river network where local impacts such as mixing zones may be important. Simulated results from the semi-Lagrangian numerical scheme are treated as input to a finite difference model of the two-dimensional diffusion equation for water quality constituents such as water temperature or toxic substances. Simulations will provide time-dependent, two-dimensional constituent concentration in the near-field in response to long-term basin-wide processes. These results could provide decision support to water quality managers for evaluating mixing zone characteristics.

‘Natural experiment’ Demonstrates Top-Down Control of Spiders by Birds on a Landscape Level

PubMed Central

Rogers, Haldre; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke; Miller, Ross; Tewksbury, Joshua J.

2012-01-01

The combination of small-scale manipulative experiments and large-scale natural experiments provides a powerful approach for demonstrating the importance of top-down trophic control on the ecosystem scale. The most compelling natural experiments have come from studies examining the landscape-scale loss of apex predators like sea otters, wolves, fish and land crabs. Birds are dominant apex predators in terrestrial systems around the world, yet all studies on their role as predators have come from small-scale experiments; the top-down impact of bird loss on their arthropod prey has yet to be examined at a landscape scale. Here, we use a unique natural experiment, the extirpation of insectivorous birds from nearly all forests on the island of Guam by the invasive brown tree snake, to produce the first assessment of the impacts of bird loss on their prey. We focused on spiders because experimental studies showed a consistent top-down effect of birds on spiders. We conducted spider web surveys in native forest on Guam and three nearby islands with healthy bird populations. Spider web densities on the island of Guam were 40 times greater than densities on islands with birds during the wet season, and 2.3 times greater during the dry season. These results confirm the general trend from manipulative experiments conducted in other systems however, the effect size was much greater in this natural experiment than in most manipulative experiments. In addition, bird loss appears to have removed the seasonality of spider webs and led to larger webs in at least one spider species in the forests of Guam than on nearby islands with birds. We discuss several possible mechanisms for the observed changes. Overall, our results suggest that effect sizes from smaller-scale experimental studies may significantly underestimate the impact of bird loss on spider density as demonstrated by this large-scale natural experiment. PMID:22970126

Ensemble-based diagnosis of the large-scale processes associated with multiple high-impact weather events over North America during late October 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, B. J.; Bosart, L. F.; Keyser, D.

2013-12-01

During late October 2007, the interaction between a deep polar trough and Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kajiki off the eastern Asian coast perturbed the North Pacific jet stream and resulted in the development of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train extending into North America, contributing to three concurrent high-impact weather events in North America: wildfires in southern California associated with strong Santa Ana winds, a cold surge into eastern Mexico, and widespread heavy rainfall (~150 mm) in the south-central United States. Observational analysis indicates that these high-impact weather events were all dynamically linked with the development of a major high-latitude ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a deep trough over central North America. In this study, global operational ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) obtained from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used to characterize the medium-range predictability of the large-scale flow pattern associated with the three events and to diagnose the large-scale atmospheric processes favorable, or unfavorable, for the occurrence of the three events. Examination of the ECMWF forecasts leading up to the time period of the three high-impact weather events (~23-25 October 2007) indicates that ensemble spread (i.e., uncertainty) in the 500-hPa geopotential height field develops in connection with downstream baroclinic development (DBD) across the North Pacific, associated with the interaction between TC Kajiki and the polar trough along the eastern Asian coast, and subsequently moves downstream into North America, yielding considerable uncertainty with respect to the structure, amplitude, and position of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Ensemble sensitivity analysis conducted for key sensible weather parameters corresponding to the three high-impact weather events, including relative humidity, temperature, and precipitation, demonstrates quantitatively that all three high-impact weather events are closely linked with the development of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Moreover, results of this analysis indicate that the development of the ridge-trough pattern is modulated by DBD and cyclogenesis upstream over the central and eastern North Pacific. Specifically, ensemble members exhibiting less intense cyclogenesis and a more poleward cyclone track over the central and eastern North Pacific feature the development of a poleward-displaced ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a cut-off low over the Intermountain West, an unfavorable scenario for the occurrence the three high-impact weather events. Conversely, ensemble members exhibiting more intense cyclogenesis and a less poleward cyclone track feature persistent ridging along the western coast of North America and trough development over central North America, establishing a favorable flow pattern for the three high-impact weather events. Results demonstrate that relatively small initial differences in the large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific among ensemble members can result in large uncertainty in the forecast downstream flow response over North America.

Assessing the carbon consequences of western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) encroachment across Oregon, USA

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Richard F. Miller

2012-01-01

Our ability to assess the continental impacts of woody encroachment remains compromised by the paucity of studies quantifying regional encroachment rates. This knowledge gap is especially apparent when it comes to quantifying the impact of woody encroachment on large-scale carbon dynamics. In this study, we use a combination of aerial photography from 1985-1986 and...

Field-scale monitoring of the long-term impact and sustainability of drainage water reuse on the west side of California’s San Joaquin Valley

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diminishing freshwater resources have brought attention to the reuse of degraded water as a potential water resource rather than as a disposal problem. Drainage water from tile-drained, irrigated agricultural land is degraded water that is often in large supply, but the long-term impact and sustain...

THE IMPACT OF WINTER NH3 EMISSION REDUCTIONS ON INORGANIC PARTICULATE MATTER UNDER PRESENT AND FUTURE REGULATED CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Recent regulation by the US Environmental Protection Agency requires large-scale emission reductions of NO_x and SO₂. This study estimates the impact of these changes on the sensitivity of PM_2.5 to NH₃ emission reductions and the reduce...

Impact of douglas-fir tussock moth... color aerial phtography evaluates mortality

Treesearch

Steven L. Wert; Boyd E. Wickman

1970-01-01

Thorough evaluation of insect impact on forest stands is difficult and expensive on the ground. In a study of tree damage following Douglas-fir tussock moth defoliation in Modoc County, California, large-scale (1:1,584)70-mm. color aerial photography was an effective sampling tool and took lesstime and expense than ground methods. Comparison of the photo...

Marine kelp: Energy resource in the coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritschard, R. L.; Haven, K. F.

1980-11-01

The relationship on the marine biomass concept and coastal zone management plans is discussed. An ocean farm system is described. The analysis of the ocean farm system includes a decription of the types of impacts that might occur if large scale operations become available, such as the production of environmental residuals, conflicts with the fishing and shipping industries and other legal/institutional impacts.

Site disturbance and soil impacts resulting from mechanized thinning of upland hardwood stands in Southeastern Kentucky

Treesearch

Jason Thompson; Emily Carter

2015-01-01

A large scale silvicultural trial was designed to examine the effectiveness of five treatments in reducing the potential future impacts of gypsy moth infestation and oak decline on upland hardwood forests in the Daniel Boone National Forest in southeastern Kentucky. Three of the five prescriptions were implemented with a mechanical harvesting system. The system...

Evidencing Impact of Educational Developments: The "Influence Wheel" and Its Use in a CETL Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Virginia

2010-01-01

Large-scale educational development initiatives are widely used to trial and introduce change. One such is the Centre for Excellence in Teaching and Learning (CETL) initiative in England, now drawing to a close. An interim evaluation of this initiative revealed some excellent practice but no major impact. As CETLs strive to gain or sustain…

Impact of small-scale structures on estuarine circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhuo; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Harry V.; Huang, Hai; Wang, Zhengui; Ye, Fei; Sisson, Mac

2018-05-01

We present a novel and challenging application of a 3D estuary-shelf model to the study of the collective impact of many small-scale structures (bridge pilings of 1 m × 2 m in size) on larger-scale circulation in a tributary (James River) of Chesapeake Bay. We first demonstrate that the model is capable of effectively transitioning grid resolution from 400 m down to 1 m near the pilings without introducing undue numerical artifact. We then show that despite their small sizes and collectively small area as compared to the total channel cross-sectional area, the pilings exert a noticeable impact on the large-scale circulation, and also create a rich structure of vortices and wakes around the pilings. As a result, the water quality and local sedimentation patterns near the bridge piling area are likely to be affected as well. However, when evaluating over the entire waterbody of the project area, the near field effects are weighed with the areal percentage which is small compared to that for the larger unaffected area, and therefore the impact on the lower James River as a whole becomes relatively insignificant. The study highlights the importance of the use of high resolution in assessing the near-field impact of structures.

Variation in the population structure of Yukon River chum and coho salmon: Evaluating the potential impact of localized habitat degradation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, J.B.; Spearman, William J.; Sage, G.K.; Miller, S.J.; Flannery, B.G.; Wenburg, J.K.

2004-01-01

We used microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA-restriction fragment length polymorphism (mtDNA-RFLP) analyses to test the hypothesis that chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta and coho salmon O. kisutch in the Yukon River, Alaska, exhibit population structure at differing spatial scales. If the hypothesis is true, then the risk of losing genetic diversity because of habitat degradation from a gold mine near a Yukon River tributary could differ between the two species. For each species, collections were made from two tributaries in both the Innoko and Tanana rivers, which are tributaries to the lower and middle Yukon River. The results revealed a large difference in the degree and spatial distribution of population structure between the two species. For chum salmon, the microsatellite loci (F-statistic [FST] = 0.021) and mtDNA (F ST = -0.008) revealed a low degree of interpopulation genetic diversity on a relatively large geographic scale. This large-scale population structure should minimize, although not eliminate, the risk of genetic diversity loss due to localized habitat degradation. For coho salmon, the microsatellites (FST = 0.091) and mtDNA (FST = 0.586) revealed a high degree of interpopulation genetic diversity on a relatively small geographic scale. This small-scale population structure suggests that coho salmon are at a relatively high risk of losing genetic diversity due to lo-calized habitat degradation. Our study underscores the importance of a multispecies approach for evaluating the potential impact of land-use activities on the genetic diversity of Pacific salmon.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

PubMed Central

Devaraju, N.; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-01-01

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures. PMID:25733889

Polar firn air reveals large-scale impact of anthropogenic mercury emissions during the 1970s.

PubMed

Faïn, Xavier; Ferrari, Christophe P; Dommergue, Aurélien; Albert, Mary R; Battle, Mark; Severinghaus, Jeff; Arnaud, Laurent; Barnola, Jean-Marc; Cairns, Warren; Barbante, Carlo; Boutron, Claude

2009-09-22

Mercury (Hg) is an extremely toxic pollutant, and its biogeochemical cycle has been perturbed by anthropogenic emissions during recent centuries. In the atmosphere, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM; Hg degrees ) is the predominant form of mercury (up to 95%). Here we report the evolution of atmospheric levels of GEM in mid- to high-northern latitudes inferred from the interstitial air of firn (perennial snowpack) at Summit, Greenland. GEM concentrations increased rapidly after World War II from approximately 1.5 ng m(-3) reaching a maximum of approximately 3 ng m(-3) around 1970 and decreased until stabilizing at approximately 1.7 ng m(-3) around 1995. This reconstruction reproduces real-time measurements available from the Arctic since 1995 and exhibits the same general trend observed in Europe since 1990. Anthropogenic emissions caused a two-fold rise in boreal atmospheric GEM concentrations before the 1970s, which likely contributed to higher deposition of mercury in both industrialized and remotes areas. Once deposited, this toxin becomes available for methylation and, subsequently, the contamination of ecosystems. Implementation of air pollution regulations, however, enabled a large-scale decline in atmospheric mercury levels during the 1980s. The results shown here suggest that potential increases in emissions in the coming decades could have a similar large-scale impact on atmospheric Hg levels.

Active-passive synergy for interpreting ocean L-band emissivity: Results from the CAROLS airborne campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, A. C. H.; Boutin, J.; Hauser, D.; Dinnat, E. P.

2014-08-01

The impact of the ocean surface roughness on the ocean L-band emissivity is investigated using simultaneous airborne measurements from an L-band radiometer (CAROLS) and from a C-band scatterometer (STORM) acquired in the Gulf of Biscay (off-the French Atlantic coasts) in November 2010. Two synergetic approaches are used to investigate the impact of surface roughness on the L-band brightness temperature (Tb). First, wind derived from the scatterometer measurements is used to analyze the roughness contribution to Tb as a function of wind and compare it with the one simulated by SMOS and Aquarius roughness models. Then residuals from this mean relationship are analyzed in terms of mean square slope derived from the STORM instrument. We show improvement of new radiometric roughness models derived from SMOS and Aquarius satellite measurements in comparison with prelaunch models. Influence of wind azimuth on Tb could not be evidenced from our data set. However, we point out the importance of taking into account large roughness scales (>20 cm) in addition to small roughness scale (5 cm) rapidly affected by wind to interpret radiometric measurements far from nadir. This was made possible thanks to simultaneous estimates of large and small roughness scales using STORM at small (7-16°) and large (30°) incidence angles.

New perspectives on the Popigai impact structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garvin, J. B.; Deino, A. L.

1992-01-01

The record of large-scale cratering on Earth is scant, and the only currently 'proven' 100-km-class impact structure known to have formed within the Cenozoic is Popigai, located in the Siberian Arctic at 71.5 deg N, 111 deg E. Popigai is clearly a multiringed impact basin formed within the crystalline shield rocks (Anabar) and platform sediments of the Siberian taiga, and estimates of the volume of preserved impact melt typically exceed 1700 cu km, which is within a factor of 2-3 of what would be predicted using scaling relationships. We present the preliminary results of an analysis of the present-day topography of the Popigai structure, together with refined absolute age estimates, in order to reconstruct the pre-erosional morphology of the basin, as well as to quantify the erosion or sediment infill rates in the Popigai region.

Regime-dependence of Impacts of Radar Rainfall Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, G. C.; Keil, C.

2009-04-01

Experience from the first operational trials of assimilation of radar data in kilometre scale numerical weather prediction models (operating without cumulus parameterisation) shows that the positive impact of the radar data on convective precipitation forecasts typically decay within a few hours, although certain cases show much longer impacts. Here the impact time of radar data assimilation is related to characteristics of the meteorological environment. This QPF uncertainty is investigated using an ensemble of 10 forecasts at 2.8 km horizontal resolution based on different initial and boundary conditions from a global forecast ensemble. Control forecasts are compared with forecasts where radar reflectivity data is assimilated using latent heat nudging. Examination of different cases of convection in southern Germany suggests that the forecasts can be separated into two regimes using a convective timescale. Short impact times are associated with short convective timescales that are characteristic of equilibrium convection. In this regime the statistical properties of the convection are constrained by the large-scale forcing, and effects of the radar data are lost within a few hours as the convection rapidly returns to equilibrium. When the convective timescale is large (non-equilibrium conditions), the impact of the radar data is longer since convective systems are triggered by the latent heat nudging and are able to persist for many hours in the very unstable conditions present in these cases.

Pro-sustainability choices and child deaths averted: from project experience to investment strategy.

PubMed

Sarriot, Eric G; Swedberg, Eric A; Ricca, James G

2011-05-01

The pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals and advancing the 'global health agenda' demand the achievement of health impact at scale through efficient investments. We have previously offered that sustainability-a necessary condition for successful expansion of programmes-can be addressed in practical terms. Based on benchmarks from actual child survival projects, we assess the expected impact of translating pro-sustainability choices into investment strategies. We review the experience of Save the Children US in Guinea in terms of investment, approach to sustainability and impact. It offers three benchmarks for impact: Entry project (21 lives saved of children under age five per US$100 000), Expansion project (37 LS/US$100k), and Continuation project (100 LS/US$100k). Extrapolating this experience, we model the impact of a traditional investment scenario against a pro-sustainability scenario and compare the deaths averted per dollar spent over five project cycles. The impact per dollar spent on a pro-sustainability strategy is 3.4 times that of a traditional one over the long run (range from 2.2 to 5.7 times in a sensitivity analysis). This large efficiency differential between two investment approaches offers a testable hypothesis for large-scale/long-term studies. The 'bang for the buck' of health programmes could be greatly increased by following a pro-sustainability investment strategy.

The impact of nudging coefficient for the initialization on the atmospheric flow field and the photochemical ozone concentration of Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Jung; Lee, Hwa Woon; Sung, Kyoung-Hee; Kim, Min-Jung; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Jung, Woo-Sik

In order to incorporate correctly the large or local scale circulation in the model, a nudging term is introduced into the equation of motion. Nudging effects should be included properly in the model to reduce the uncertainties and improve the air flow field. To improve the meteorological components, the nudging coefficient should perform the adequate influence on complex area for the model initialization technique which related to data reliability and error suppression. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to evaluate the effects on air quality modeling by comparing the performance of the meteorological result with variable nudging coefficient experiment. All experiments are calculated by the upper wind conditions (synoptic or asynoptic condition), respectively. Consequently, it is important to examine the model response to nudging effect of wind and mass information. The MM5-CMAQ model was used to assess the ozone differences in each case, during the episode day in Seoul, Korea and we revealed that there were large differences in the ozone concentration for each run. These results suggest that for the appropriate simulation of large or small-scale circulations, nudging considering the synoptic and asynoptic nudging coefficient does have a clear advantage over dynamic initialization, so appropriate limitation of these nudging coefficient values on its upper wind conditions is necessary before making an assessment. The statistical verifications showed that adequate nudging coefficient for both wind and temperature data throughout the model had a consistently positive impact on the atmospheric and air quality field. On the case dominated by large-scale circulation, a large nudging coefficient shows a minor improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field. However, when small-scale convection is present, the large nudging coefficient produces consistent improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field.

China's synthetic natural gas revolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chi-Jen; Jackson, Robert B.

2013-10-01

China has recently pushed for investments in large-scale coal-fuelled synthetic natural gas plants. The associated carbon emissions, water needs and wider environmental impacts are, however, mostly neglected and could lock the country into an unsustainable development path.

The Chaotic Terrains of Mercury: A History of Large-Scale Crustal Devolatilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, J. A. P.; Domingue, D. L.; Berman, D. C.; Kargel, J. S.; Baker, V. R.; Teodoro, L. F.; Banks, M.; Leonard, G.

2018-05-01

Approximately 400 million years after the Caloris basin impact, extensive collapse formed Mercury's chaotic terrains. Collapse likely resulted from regionally elevated heat flow devolatilizing crustal materials along NE and NW extensional faults.

Comprehensive evaluation of transportation projects : a toolkit for sketch planning.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-01

A quick-response project-planning tool can be extremely valuable in anticipating the congestion, safety, : emissions, and other impacts of large-scale network improvements and policy implementations. This report : identifies the advantages and limita...

Power from Ocean Waves.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newman, J. N.

1979-01-01

Discussed is the utilization of surface ocean waves as a potential source of power. Simple and large-scale wave power devices and conversion systems are described. Alternative utilizations, environmental impacts, and future prospects of this alternative energy source are detailed. (BT)

Distribution of Usutu Virus in Germany and Its Effect on Breeding Bird Populations

PubMed Central

Jöst, Hanna; Cadar, Daniel; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Bosch, Stefan; Tannich, Egbert; Becker, Norbert; Ziegler, Ute; Lachmann, Lars; Schmidt-Chanasit, Jonas

2017-01-01

Usutu virus (USUV) is an emerging mosquitoborne flavivirus with an increasing number of reports from several countries in Europe, where USUV infection has caused high avian mortality rates. However, 20 years after the first observed outbreak of USUV in Europe, there is still no reliable assessment of the large-scale impact of USUV outbreaks on bird populations. In this study, we identified the areas suitable for USUV circulation in Germany and analyzed the effects of USUV on breeding bird populations. We calculated the USUV-associated additional decline of common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations as 15.7% inside USUV-suitable areas but found no significant effect for the other 14 common bird species investigated. Our results show that the emergence of USUV is a further threat for birds in Europe and that the large-scale impact on population levels, at least for common blackbirds, must be considered. PMID:29148399

Living the lesson: can the Lifestyle Project be used to achieve deep learning in environmental earth science?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padden, M.; Whalen, K.

2013-12-01

Students in a large, second-year environmental earth science class made significant changes to their daily lives over a three-week period to learn how small-scale actions interact with global-scaled issues such as water and energy supplies, waste management and agriculture. The Lifestyle Project (Kirk and Thomas, 2003) was slightly adapted to fit a large-class setting (350 students). Students made changes to their lifestyle in self-selected categories (water, home heating, transportation, waste, food) and created journals over a three-week period as the changes increased in difficulty. The goal of this study is to gain an understanding of which aspects of the project played a pivotal role in impacting long-term learning. Content analysis of the journal entries and follow-up interviews are used to investigate if the Lifestyle Project is having a lasting impact on the students 18 months after the initial assignment.

The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

DOE PAGES

Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; ...

2015-02-11

We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification ofmore » key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.« less

Remote tropical and sub-tropical responses to Amazon deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badger, Andrew M.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2016-05-01

Replacing natural vegetation with realistic tropical crops over the Amazon region in a global Earth system model impacts vertical transport of heat and moisture, modifying the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free atmosphere. Vertical velocity is decreased over a majority of the Amazon region, shifting the ascending branch and modifying the seasonality of the Hadley circulation over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans. Using a simple model that relates circulation changes to heating anomalies and generalizing the upper-atmosphere temperature response to deforestation, agreement is found between the response in the fully-coupled model and the simple solution. These changes to the large-scale dynamics significantly impact precipitation in several remote regions, namely sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, the southwestern United States and extratropical South America, suggesting non-local climate repercussions for large-scale land use changes in the tropics are possible.

Continental Tele-connections of ET and Precipitation: Tractable Models, Viable Management, and Potential Monitoring.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selker, J. S.; Higgins, C. W.; Tai, L. C. M.

2014-12-01

The linkage between large-scale manipulation of land cover and resulting patterns of precipitation has been a long-standing problem. For example, what is the impact of the Columbia River project's 2,700 km^2 irrigated area (applying approximately 300 m^3/s) on the down-wind continental rainfall in North America? Similarly, can we identify places on earth where planting large-scale runoff-reducing forests might increase down-wind precipitation, thus leading to magnified carbon capture? In this talk we present an analytical Lagrangian framework for the prediction of incremental increases in down-wind precipitation due to land surface evaporation and transpiration. We compare these predictions to recently published rainfall recycling values from the literature. Focus is on the Columbia basin (Pacific Northwest of hte USA), with extensions to East Africa. We further explore the monitoring requirements for verification of any such impact, and see if the planned TAHMO African Observatory (TAHMO.org) has the potential to document any such processes over the 25-year and 1,000 km scales.

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE PAGES

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

2017-11-15

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

The Effect of Large Scale Salinity Gradient on Langmuir Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y.; Jarosz, E.; Yu, Z.; Jensen, T.; Sullivan, P. P.; Liang, J.

2017-12-01

Langmuir circulation (LC) is believed to be one of the leading order causes of turbulent mixing in the upper ocean. It is important for momentum and heat exchange across the mixed layer (ML) and directly impact the dynamics and thermodynamics in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere including the vertical distributions of chemical, biological, optical, and acoustic properties. Based on Craik and Leibovich (1976) theory, large eddy simulation (LES) models have been developed to simulate LC in the upper ocean, yielding new insights that could not be obtained from field observations and turbulent closure models. Due its high computational cost, LES models are usually limited to small domain sizes and cannot resolve large-scale flows. Furthermore, most LES models used in the LC simulations use periodic boundary conditions in the horizontal direction, which assumes the physical properties (i.e. temperature and salinity) and expected flow patterns in the area of interest are of a periodically repeating nature so that the limited small LES domain is representative for the larger area. Using periodic boundary condition can significantly reduce computational effort in problems, and it is a good assumption for isotropic shear turbulence. However, LC is anisotropic (McWilliams et al 1997) and was observed to be modulated by crosswind tidal currents (Kukulka et al 2011). Using symmetrical domains, idealized LES studies also indicate LC could interact with oceanic fronts (Hamlington et al 2014) and standing internal waves (Chini and Leibovich, 2005). The present study expands our previous LES modeling investigations of Langmuir turbulence to the real ocean conditions with large scale environmental motion that features fresh water inflow into the study region. Large scale gradient forcing is introduced to the NCAR LES model through scale separation analysis. The model is applied to a field observation in the Gulf of Mexico in July, 2016 when the measurement site was impacted by large fresh water inflow due to flooding from the Mississippi river. Model results indicate that the strong salinity gradient can reduce the mean flow in the ML and inhibit the turbulence in the planetary boundary layer. The Langmuir cells are also rotated clockwise by the pressure gradient.

Ecosystem transformation by emerging infectious disease: loss of large tanoak from California forests

Treesearch

Richard C. Cobb; Joao A.N. Filipe; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Christopher A. Gilligan; David M. Rizzo

2012-01-01

1. Few pathogens are the sole or primary cause of species extinctions, but forest disease has caused spectacular declines in North American overstorey trees and restructured forest ecosystems at large spatial scales over the past 100 years. These events threaten biodiversity associated with impacted host trees and other resources valued by human societies even when...

Revision of the Rawls et al. (1982) pedotransfer functions for their applicability to US croplands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Large scale environmental impact studies typically involve the use of simulation models and require a variety of inputs, some of which may need to be estimated in absence of adequate measured data. As an example, soil water retention needs to be estimated for a large number of soils that are to be u...

Selfing results in inbreeding depression of growth but not of gas exchange of surviving adult black spruce trees

Treesearch

Kurt Johnsen; John E. Major; Chris A. Maier

2003-01-01

Summary In most tree species, inbreeding greatly reduces seed production, seed viability, survival and growth. In a previous large-scale quantitative analysis of a black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) diallel experiment, selfing had large deleterious effects on growth but no impact on stable carbon isotope discrimination (an...

When Good Intentions and Reality Meet: Large-Scale Reform of Science Teaching in Urban Schools with Predominantly Latino ELL Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Carla C.; Bolshakova, Virginia L. J.; Waldron, Tammy

2016-01-01

This study examined the ability of Transformative Professional Development (TPD) to transform science teacher quality and associated impact on science achievement, including particular focus on English Language Learners (ELL). TPD was implemented in a large, low-performing, urban district in the southwest with predominantly Latino ELL populations.…

Trajectory and Mixing Scaling Laws for Confined and Unconfined Transverse Jets

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

engines , issues of confinement, very large density ratio, and super/transcritical effects complicate the utility of the ...opposite wall at a streamwise position that is one -half pipe diameter downstream of the injection location (termed moderate impaction). This...BD, and Eq. 10 scaling laws are 0.97 and 0.90, respectively. One of the primary effects of the confinement is that the

Multilingual Literacy Skill Development in Kenya: Results from Medium Scale Randomized Controlled Trials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piper, Benjamin

2016-01-01

If children do not learn how to read in the first few years of primary school, they at greater risk of dropping out. It is therefore crucial to identify and test interventions that have the potential of making a large impact, can be implemented quickly, and are affordable to be taken to scale by the Kenyan government. This paper presents the…

Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

PubMed

Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-11-15

Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water, Carbon, and Nutrient Cycling Following Insect-induced Tree Mortality: How Well Do Plot-scale Observations Predict Ecosystem-Scale Response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, P. D.; Barnard, H. R.; Biederman, J. A.; Borkhuu, B.; Edburg, S. L.; Ewers, B. E.; Gochis, D. J.; Gutmann, E. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Hicke, J. A.; Pendall, E.; Reed, D. E.; Somor, A. J.; Troch, P. A.

2011-12-01

Widespread tree mortality caused by insect infestations and drought has impacted millions of hectares across western North America in recent years. Although previous work on post-disturbance responses (e.g. experimental manipulations, fire, and logging) provides insight into how water and biogeochemical cycles may respond to insect infestations and drought, we find that the unique nature of these drivers of tree mortality complicates extrapolation to larger scales. Building from previous work on forest disturbance, we present a conceptual model of how temporal changes in forest structure impact the individual components of energy balance, hydrologic partitioning, and biogeochemical cycling and the interactions among them. We evaluate and refine this model using integrated observations and process modeling on multiple scales including plot, stand, flux tower footprint, hillslope, and catchment to identify scaling relationships and emergent patterns in hydrological and biogeochemical responses. Our initial results suggest that changes in forest structure at point or plot scales largely have predictable effects on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycles that are well captured by land surface, hydrological, and biogeochemical models. However, observations from flux towers and nested catchments suggest that both the hydrological and biogeochemical effects observed at tree and plot scales may be attenuated or exacerbated at larger scales. Compensatory processes are associated with attenuation (e.g. as transpiration decreases, evaporation and sublimation increase), whereas both attenuation and exacerbation may result from nonlinear scaling behavior across transitions in topography and ecosystem structure that affect the redistribution of energy, water, and solutes. Consequently, the effects of widespread tree mortality on ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration will likely depend on how spatial patterns in mortality severity across the landscape affect large-scale hydrological partitioning.

Landscape management of fire and grazing regimes alters the fine-scale habitat utilisation by feral cats.

PubMed

McGregor, Hugh W; Legge, Sarah; Jones, Menna E; Johnson, Christopher N

2014-01-01

Intensification of fires and grazing by large herbivores has caused population declines in small vertebrates in many ecosystems worldwide. Impacts are rarely direct, and usually appear driven via indirect pathways, such as changes to predator-prey dynamics. Fire events and grazing may improve habitat and/or hunting success for the predators of small mammals, however, such impacts have not been documented. To test for such an interaction, we investigated fine-scale habitat selection by feral cats in relation to fire, grazing and small-mammal abundance. Our study was conducted in north-western Australia, where small mammal populations are sensitive to changes in fire and grazing management. We deployed GPS collars on 32 cats in landscapes with contrasting fire and grazing treatments. Fine-scale habitat selection was determined using discrete choice modelling of cat movements. We found that cats selected areas with open grass cover, including heavily-grazed areas. They strongly selected for areas recently burnt by intense fires, but only in habitats that typically support high abundance of small mammals. Intense fires and grazing by introduced herbivores created conditions that are favoured by cats, probably because their hunting success is improved. This mechanism could explain why, in northern Australia, impacts of feral cats on small mammals might have increased. Our results suggest the impact of feral cats could be reduced in most ecosystems by maximising grass cover, minimising the incidence of intense fires, and reducing grazing by large herbivores.

Landscape Management of Fire and Grazing Regimes Alters the Fine-Scale Habitat Utilisation by Feral Cats

PubMed Central

McGregor, Hugh W.; Legge, Sarah; Jones, Menna E.; Johnson, Christopher N.

2014-01-01

Intensification of fires and grazing by large herbivores has caused population declines in small vertebrates in many ecosystems worldwide. Impacts are rarely direct, and usually appear driven via indirect pathways, such as changes to predator-prey dynamics. Fire events and grazing may improve habitat and/or hunting success for the predators of small mammals, however, such impacts have not been documented. To test for such an interaction, we investigated fine-scale habitat selection by feral cats in relation to fire, grazing and small-mammal abundance. Our study was conducted in north-western Australia, where small mammal populations are sensitive to changes in fire and grazing management. We deployed GPS collars on 32 cats in landscapes with contrasting fire and grazing treatments. Fine-scale habitat selection was determined using discrete choice modelling of cat movements. We found that cats selected areas with open grass cover, including heavily-grazed areas. They strongly selected for areas recently burnt by intense fires, but only in habitats that typically support high abundance of small mammals. Intense fires and grazing by introduced herbivores created conditions that are favoured by cats, probably because their hunting success is improved. This mechanism could explain why, in northern Australia, impacts of feral cats on small mammals might have increased. Our results suggest the impact of feral cats could be reduced in most ecosystems by maximising grass cover, minimising the incidence of intense fires, and reducing grazing by large herbivores. PMID:25329902

Aeolian Processes and the Biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravi, Sujith; D'Odorico, Paolo; Breshears, David D.; Field, Jason P.; Goudie, Andrew S.; Huxman, Travis E.; Li, Junran; Okin, Gregory S.; Swap, Robert J.; Thomas, Andrew D.; Van Pelt, Scott; Whicker, Jeffrey J.; Zobeck, Ted M.

2011-08-01

Aeolian processes affect the biosphere in a wide variety of contexts, including landform evolution, biogeochemical cycles, regional climate, human health, and desertification. Collectively, research on aeolian processes and the biosphere is developing rapidly in many diverse and specialized areas, but integration of these recent advances is needed to better address management issues and to set future research priorities. Here we review recent literature on aeolian processes and their interactions with the biosphere, focusing on (1) geography of dust emissions, (2) impacts, interactions, and feedbacks, (3) drivers of dust emissions, and (4) methodological approaches. Geographically, dust emissions are highly spatially variable but also provide connectivity at global scales between sources and effects, with “hot spots” being of particular concern. Recent research reveals that aeolian processes have impacts, interactions, and feedbacks at a variety of scales, including large-scale dust transport and global biogeochemical cycles, climate mediated interactions between atmospheric dust and ecosystems, impacts on human health, impacts on agriculture, and interactions between aeolian processes and dryland vegetation. Aeolian dust emissions are driven largely by, in addition to climate, a combination of soil properties, soil moisture, vegetation and roughness, biological and physical crusts, and disturbances. Aeolian research methods span laboratory and field techniques, modeling, and remote sensing. Together these integrated perspectives on aeolian processes and the biosphere provide insights into management options and aid in identifying research priorities, both of which are increasingly important given that global climate models predict an increase in aridity in many dryland systems of the world.

Impacts into porous asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Housen, Kevin R.; Sweet, William J.; Holsapple, Keith A.

2018-01-01

Many small bodies in the solar system have bulk density well below the solid density of the constituent mineral grains in their meteorite counterparts. Those low-density bodies undoubtedly have significant porosity, which is a key factor that affects the formation of impact craters. This paper summarizes the results of lab experiments in which materials with porosity ranging from 43% to 96% were impacted at ∼1800 m/s. The experiments were performed on a geotechnical centrifuge, in order to reproduce the lithostatic overburden stress and ejecta ballistics that occur in large-scale cratering events on asteroids or planetary satellites. Experiments performed at various accelerations, up to 514G, simulate the outcomes of impacts at size scales up to several tens of km in diameter. Our experiments show that an impact into a highly porous cohesionless material generates a large ovoid-shaped cavity, due to crushing by the outgoing shock. The cavity opens up to form a transient crater that grows until the material flow is arrested by gravity. The cavity then collapses to form the final crater. During collapse, finely crushed material that lines the cavity wall is carried down and collected in a localized region below the final crater floor. At large simulated sizes (high accelerations), most of the crater volume is formed by compaction, because growth of the transient crater is quickly arrested. Nearly all ejected material falls back into the crater, leaving the crater without an ejecta blanket. We find that such compaction cratering and suppression of the ejecta blankets occur for large craters on porous bodies when the ratio of the lithostatic stress at one crater depth to the crush strength of the target exceeds ∼0.005. The results are used to identify small solar system bodies on which compaction cratering likely occurs. A model is developed that gives the crater size and ejecta mass that would result for a specified impact into a porous object.

Impact of Icebergs on Net Primary Productivity in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shuang-Ye; Hou, Shugui

2017-04-01

Productivity in the Southern Ocean (SO) is iron-limited, and supply of iron dissolved from aeolian dust is believed to be the main source from outside the marine environment. However, recent studies show that icebergs could provide comparable amount of bioavailable iron to the SO as aeolian dust. In addition, small scale areal studies suggest increased concentrations of chlorophyll, krill, and seabirds surrounding icebergs. Based on previous research, this study aims to examine whether iceberg occurrence has a significant impact on marine productivity at the scale of the SO, using remote sensing data of iceberg occurrences and ocean net primary productivity (NPP) covering the period 2002-2014. The impacts of both large and small icebergs are examined in four major ecological zones of the SO: the continental shelf zone (CSZ), the seasonal ice zone (SIZ), the permanent open ocean zone (POOZ) and the polar front zone (PFZ). We found that both large and small icebergs have an observable positive impact on NPP, but their impacts vary in different zones. Small icebergs on average increase NPP in most iron deficient zones: by 21% for the SIZ, 16% for the POOZ, and 12% for the PFZ, but have relatively small effect in the CSZ where iron is supplied from melt water and sediment input from the continent. Large icebergs on average increase the NPP by about 10%. Their impacts are stronger at higher latitudes, where they are more concentrated. From 1992-2014, there is a significant increasing trend for both small and large icebergs. The increase was most rapid in the early 2000s, and has levelled off since then. As the climate continues to warm, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is expected to experience increased mass loss as a whole, which could lead to more icebergs in the region. Based on our study, this could result in higher level of NPP in the SO as a whole, providing a negative feedback for global warming.

Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 2. Comparison over nonuniform surface conditions

DOE PAGES

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.; ...

2016-03-18

As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison ofmore » the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. Lastly, these large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.« less

Numerical analysis on interactions between fluid flow and structure deformation in plate-fin heat exchanger by Galerkin method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jing-cheng; Wei, Xiu-ting; Zhou, Zhi-yong; Wei, Zhen-wen

2018-03-01

The fluid-structure interaction performance of plate-fin heat exchanger (PFHE) with serrated fins in large scale air-separation equipment was investigated in this paper. The stress and deformation of fins were analyzed, besides, the interaction equations were deduced by Galerkin method. The governing equations of fluid flow and heat transfer in PFHE were deduced by finite volume method (FVM). The distribution of strain and stress were calculated in large scale air separation equipment and the coupling situation of serrated fins under laminar situation was analyzed. The results indicated that the interactions between fins and fluid flow in the exchanger have significant impacts on heat transfer enhancement, meanwhile, the strain and stress of fins includes dynamic pressure of the sealing head and flow impact with the increase of flow velocity. The impacts are especially significant at the conjunction of two fins because of the non-alignment fins. It can be concluded that the soldering process and channel width led to structure deformation of fins in the exchanger, and degraded heat transfer efficiency.

Interrogating heterogeneous compaction of meteoritic material at the mesoscale using analog experiments and numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derrick, James; Rutherford, Michael; Davison, Thomas; Chapman, David; Eakins, Daniel; Collins, Gareth

2017-06-01

Chondritic meteorites were lithified during solar system formation by compaction of bimodal mixtures of mm-scale, spherical, solidified melt droplets (chondrules) surrounded by a porous matrix of much finer grained dust. A possible compaction mechanism is low-velocity planetesimal collisions, which were common in the early solar system. Mesoscale numerical simulations of such impacts indicate heterogeneous compaction, with large porosity and temperature variations over sub-mm scales in the matrix and chondrules largely unaffected. In particular, compaction and heating are enhanced in front of the chondrule and suppressed in its wake. Such observations may provide a new tool for interpreting evidence for impact in meteorites. Here we present impact experiments that replicate compaction surrounding an individual chondrule using analog materials: Soda Lime glass beads/rods and 70% porous silica powder matrix (Sipernat). Real-time, X-ray imaging of the experiments, combined with mesoscale modelling, provides experimental confirmation of anisotropic matrix compaction surrounding individual chondrules, aligned with the shock direction. JGD is supported by EPSRC studentship funding; GSC are supported by STFC Grant ST/N000803/1.

Delivering better power: the role of simulation in reducing the environmental impact of aircraft engines.

PubMed

Menzies, Kevin

2014-08-13

The growth in simulation capability over the past 20 years has led to remarkable changes in the design process for gas turbines. The availability of relatively cheap computational power coupled to improvements in numerical methods and physical modelling in simulation codes have enabled the development of aircraft propulsion systems that are more powerful and yet more efficient than ever before. However, the design challenges are correspondingly greater, especially to reduce environmental impact. The simulation requirements to achieve a reduced environmental impact are described along with the implications of continued growth in available computational power. It is concluded that achieving the environmental goals will demand large-scale multi-disciplinary simulations requiring significantly increased computational power, to enable optimization of the airframe and propulsion system over the entire operational envelope. However even with massive parallelization, the limits imposed by communications latency will constrain the time required to achieve a solution, and therefore the position of such large-scale calculations in the industrial design process. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover

PubMed Central

Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Oglesby, Robert; Pathak, Amey; Chandrasekharan, Anita; Ramsankaran, RAAJ

2016-01-01

Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is traditionally linked with large-scale perturbations and circulations. However, the impacts of local changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on ISMR have yet to be explored. Here, we analyzed this topic using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data for the years 2000–2010 as a boundary condition and with LULC data from 1987 and 2005. The differences in LULC between 1987 and 2005 showed deforestation with conversion of forest land to crop land, though the magnitude of such conversion is uncertain because of the coarse resolution of satellite images and use of differential sources and methods for data extraction. We performed a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of large-scale deforestation in India on monsoon precipitation and found such impacts are similar to the observed changes in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude. We found that deforestation results in weakening of the ISMR because of the decrease in evapotranspiration and subsequent decrease in the recycled component of precipitation. PMID:27553384

Climate, Water, and Human Health: Large Scale Hydroclimatic Controls in Forecasting Cholera Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2009-12-01

Despite ravaging the continents through seven global pandemics in past centuries, the seasonal and interannual variability of cholera outbreaks remain a mystery. Previous studies have focused on the role of various environmental and climatic factors, but provided little or no predictive capability. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of large scale hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - and attempt to explain the seasonality and the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia. We investigate the seasonal and interannual nature of cholera epidemiology in three geographically distinct locations within the region to identify the larger scale hydroclimatic controls that can set the ecological and environmental ‘stage’ for outbreaks and have significant memory on a seasonal scale. Here we show that two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large scale climatic controls prevail in the region. An implication of our findings is that extreme climatic events such as prolonged droughts, record floods, and major cyclones may cause major disruption in the ecosystem and trigger large epidemics. We postulate that a quantitative understanding of the large-scale hydroclimatic controls and dominant processes with significant system memory will form the basis for forecasting such epidemic outbreaks. A multivariate regression method using these predictor variables to develop probabilistic forecasts of cholera outbreaks will be explored. Forecasts from such a system with a seasonal lead-time are likely to have measurable impact on early cholera detection and prevention efforts in endemic regions.

Los Alamos National Laboratory Economic Analysis Capability Overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith; Pasqualini, Donatella

Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed two types of models to compute the economic impact of infrastructure disruptions. FastEcon is a fast running model that estimates first-­order economic impacts of large scale events such as hurricanes and floods and can be used to identify the amount of economic activity that occurs in a specific area. LANL’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model estimates more comprehensive static and dynamic economic impacts of a broader array of events and captures the interactions between sectors and industries when estimating economic impacts.

Acute effects of a large bolide impact simulated by a global atmospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Starley L.; Crutzen, P. J.

1988-01-01

The goal is to use a global three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model developed for studies of atmospheric effects of nuclear war to examine the time evolution of atmospheric effects from a large bolide impact. The model allows for dust and NOx injection, atmospheric transport by winds, removal by precipitation, radiative transfer effects, stratospheric ozone chemistry, and nitric acid formation and deposition on a simulated Earth having realistic geography. Researchers assume a modest 2 km-diameter impactor of the type that could have formed the 32 km-diameter impact structure found near Manson, Iowa and dated at roughly 66 Ma. Such an impact would have created on the order of 5 x 10 to the 10th power metric tons of atmospheric dust (about 0.01 g cm(-2) if spread globally) and 1 x 10 to the 37th power molecules of NO, or two orders of magnitude more stratospheric NO than might be produced in a large nuclear war. Researchers ignore potential injections of CO2 and wildfire smoke, and assume the direct heating of the atmosphere by impact ejecta on a regional scale is not large compared to absorption of solar energy by dust. Researchers assume an impact site at 45 N in the interior of present day North America.

Large-scale impacts of herbivores on the structural diversity of African savannas

PubMed Central

Asner, Gregory P.; Levick, Shaun R.; Kennedy-Bowdoin, Ty; Knapp, David E.; Emerson, Ruth; Jacobson, James; Colgan, Matthew S.; Martin, Roberta E.

2009-01-01

African savannas are undergoing management intensification, and decision makers are increasingly challenged to balance the needs of large herbivore populations with the maintenance of vegetation and ecosystem diversity. Ensuring the sustainability of Africa's natural protected areas requires information on the efficacy of management decisions at large spatial scales, but often neither experimental treatments nor large-scale responses are available for analysis. Using a new airborne remote sensing system, we mapped the three-dimensional (3-D) structure of vegetation at a spatial resolution of 56 cm throughout 1640 ha of savanna after 6-, 22-, 35-, and 41-year exclusions of herbivores, as well as in unprotected areas, across Kruger National Park in South Africa. Areas in which herbivores were excluded over the short term (6 years) contained 38%–80% less bare ground compared with those that were exposed to mammalian herbivory. In the longer-term (> 22 years), the 3-D structure of woody vegetation differed significantly between protected and accessible landscapes, with up to 11-fold greater woody canopy cover in the areas without herbivores. Our maps revealed 2 scales of ecosystem response to herbivore consumption, one broadly mediated by geologic substrate and the other mediated by hillslope-scale variation in soil nutrient availability and moisture conditions. Our results are the first to quantitatively illustrate the extent to which herbivores can affect the 3-D structural diversity of vegetation across large savanna landscapes. PMID:19258457

Multi-time-scale hydroclimate dynamics of a regional watershed and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation: Application to the Seine river catchment, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, N.; Dieppois, B.; Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Fossa, M.; Laignel, B.; Debret, M.

2017-03-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating correlation between large and local scales, empirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: (i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and (ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the links between large and local scales were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach, which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing monthly regional hydrometeorological processes (predictand: precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector). This approach basically consisted in three steps: 1 - decomposing large-scale climate and hydrological signals (SLP field, precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis, 2 - generating a statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3 - summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either precipitation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with alternating flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter/spring 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. In accordance with previous studies, the wavelet components detected in SLP, precipitation and streamflow on interannual to interdecadal time-scales could be interpreted in terms of influence of the Gulf-Stream oceanic front on atmospheric circulation.

The Saskatchewan River Basin - a large scale observatory for water security research (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2013-12-01

The 336,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Western Canada illustrates many of the issues of Water Security faced world-wide. It poses globally-important science challenges due to the diversity in its hydro-climate and ecological zones. With one of the world's more extreme climates, it embodies environments of global significance, including the Rocky Mountains (source of the major rivers in Western Canada), the Boreal Forest (representing 30% of Canada's land area) and the Prairies (home to 80% of Canada's agriculture). Management concerns include: provision of water resources to more than three million inhabitants, including indigenous communities; balancing competing needs for water between different uses, such as urban centres, industry, agriculture, hydropower and environmental flows; issues of water allocation between upstream and downstream users in the three prairie provinces; managing the risks of flood and droughts; and assessing water quality impacts of discharges from major cities and intensive agricultural production. Superimposed on these issues is the need to understand and manage uncertain water futures, including effects of economic growth and environmental change, in a highly fragmented water governance environment. Key science questions focus on understanding and predicting the effects of land and water management and environmental change on water quantity and quality. To address the science challenges, observational data are necessary across multiple scales. This requires focussed research at intensively monitored sites and small watersheds to improve process understanding and fine-scale models. To understand large-scale effects on river flows and quality, land-atmosphere feedbacks, and regional climate, integrated monitoring, modelling and analysis is needed at large basin scale. And to support water management, new tools are needed for operational management and scenario-based planning that can be implemented across multiple scales and multiple jurisdictions. The SaskRB has therefore been developed as a large scale observatory, now a Regional Hydroclimate Project of the World Climate Research Programme's GEWEX project, and is available to contribute to the emerging North American Water Program. State-of-the-art hydro-ecological experimental sites have been developed for the key biomes, and a river and lake biogeochemical research facility, focussed on impacts of nutrients and exotic chemicals. Data are integrated at SaskRB scale to support the development of improved large scale climate and hydrological modelling products, the development of DSS systems for local, provincial and basin-scale management, and the development of related social science research, engaging stakeholders in the research and exploring their values and priorities for water security. The observatory provides multiple scales of observation and modelling required to develop: a) new climate, hydrological and ecological science and modelling tools to address environmental change in key environments, and their integrated effects and feedbacks at large catchment scale, b) new tools needed to support river basin management under uncertainty, including anthropogenic controls on land and water management and c) the place-based focus for the development of new transdisciplinary science.

Removal of two large-scale cosmic microwave background anomalies after subtraction of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rassat, A.; Starck, J.-L.; Dupé, F.-X.

2013-09-01

Context. Although there is currently a debate over the significance of the claimed large-scale anomalies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), their existence is not totally dismissed. In parallel to the debate over their statistical significance, recent work has also focussed on masks and secondary anisotropies as potential sources of these anomalies. Aims: In this work we investigate simultaneously the impact of the method used to account for masked regions as well as the impact of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect, which is the large-scale secondary anisotropy most likely to affect the CMB anomalies. In this sense, our work is an update of previous works. Our aim is to identify trends in CMB data from different years and with different mask treatments. Methods: We reconstruct the ISW signal due to 2 Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) and NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) galaxies, effectively reconstructing the low-redshift ISW signal out to z ~ 1. We account for regions of missing data using the sparse inpainting technique. We test sparse inpainting of the CMB, large scale structure and ISW and find that it constitutes a bias-free reconstruction method suitable to study large-scale statistical isotropy and the ISW effect. Results: We focus on three large-scale CMB anomalies: the low quadrupole, the quadrupole/octopole alignment, and the octopole planarity. After sparse inpainting, the low quadrupole becomes more anomalous, whilst the quadrupole/octopole alignment becomes less anomalous. The significance of the low quadrupole is unchanged after subtraction of the ISW effect, while the trend amongst the CMB maps is that both the low quadrupole and the quadrupole/octopole alignment have reduced significance, yet other hypotheses remain possible as well (e.g. exotic physics). Our results also suggest that both of these anomalies may be due to the quadrupole alone. While the octopole planarity significance is reduced after inpainting and after ISW subtraction, however, we do not find that it was very anomalous to start with. In the spirit of participating in reproducible research, we make all codes and resulting products which constitute main results of this paper public here: http://www.cosmostat.org/anomaliesCMB.html

Evaluation of bioenergy crop growth and the impacts of bioenergy crops on streamflow, tile drain flow and nutrient losses in an extensively tile-drained watershed using SWAT

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Large quantities of biofuel production are expected from bioenergy crops at a national scale to meet US biofuel goals. It is important to study biomass production of bioenergy crops and the impacts of these crops on water quantity and quality to identify environment-friendly and productive biofeeds...

Investigating the Impact of NGSS-Aligned Professional Development on PreK-3 Teachers' Science Content Knowledge and Pedagogy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tuttle, Nicole; Kaderavek, Joan N.; Molitor, Scott; Czerniak, Charlene M.; Johnson-Whitt, Eugenia; Bloomquist, Debra; Namatovu, Winnifred; Wilson, Grant

2016-01-01

This pilot study investigates the impact of a 2-week professional development Summer Institute on PK-3 teachers' knowledge and practices. This Summer Institute is a component of [program], a large-scale early-childhood science project that aims to transform PK-3 science teaching. The mixed-methods study examined concept maps, lesson plans, and…

Establishing the Role and Impact of Academic Librarians in Supporting Open Research: A Case Study at Leeds Beckett University, UK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bower, Kirsty; Sheppard, Nick; Bayjoo, Jennifer; Pease, Adele

2017-01-01

This practical article presents findings of a small scale study undertaken at a large U.K. University. The purpose of the study was to encourage academic engagement with Open Access (OA) and the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) mandate with the measurable impact being increased engagement with the Repository and dissemination…

The Impact of Teacher Study Groups in Vocabulary on Teaching Practice, Teacher Knowledge, and Student Vocabulary Knowledge: A Large-Scale Replication Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jayanthi, Madhavi; Dimino, Joseph; Gersten, Russell; Taylor, Mary Jo; Haymond, Kelly; Smolkowski, Keith; Newman-Gonchar, Rebecca

2018-01-01

The purpose of this replication study was to examine the impact of the Teacher Study Group (TSG) professional development in vocabulary on first-grade teachers' knowledge of vocabulary instruction and observed teaching practice, and on students' vocabulary knowledge. Sixty-two schools from 16 districts in four states were randomly assigned to…

The Impact of Biology/Geology School Teachers Masters Courses on the Improvement of Science Education Quality in Portugal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pombo, Lucia; Costa, Nilza

2009-01-01

In this paper we report a large-scale study designed to evaluate the impact of masters courses on the professional development of science school teachers and, consequently, on the improvement of the quality of science education. The underlying assumption of this study is that masters teachers are widely recognized as assuming a relevant role to…

How fuel treatment types, locations, and amounts impact landscape-scale fire behavior and carbon dynamics

Treesearch

Christopher A. Dicus; Kevin J. Osborne

2015-01-01

When managing for fire across a large landscape, the types of fuel treatments, the locations of treatments, and the percentage of the landscape being treated should all interact to impact not only potential fire size, but also carbon dynamics across that landscape. To investigate these interactions, we utilized a forest growth model (FVS-FFE) and fire simulation...

Land grabbing: a preliminary quantification of economic impacts on rural livelihoods.

PubMed

Davis, Kyle F; D'Odorico, Paolo; Rulli, Maria Cristina

2014-01-01

Global demands on agricultural land are increasing due to population growth, dietary changes and the use of biofuels. Their effect on food security is to reduce humans' ability to cope with the uncertainties of global climate change. In light of the 2008 food crisis, to secure reliable future access to sufficient agricultural land, many nations and corporations have begun purchasing large tracts of land in the global South, a phenomenon deemed "land grabbing" by popular media. Because land investors frequently export crops without providing adequate employment, this represents an effective income loss for local communities. We study 28 countries targeted by large-scale land acquisitions [comprising 87 % of reported cases and 27 million hectares (ha)] and estimate the effects of such investments on local communities' incomes. We find that this phenomenon can potentially affect the incomes of ~12 million people globally with implications for food security, poverty levels and urbanization. While it is important to note that our study incorporates a number of assumptions and limitations, it provides a much needed initial quantification of the economic impacts of large-scale land acquisitions on rural livelihoods.

Particulate matter emissions from biochar-amended soils as a potential tradeoff to the negative emission potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravi, Sujith; Sharratt, Brenton S.; Li, Junran; Olshevski, Stuart; Meng, Zhongju; Zhang, Jianguo

2016-10-01

Novel carbon sequestration strategies such as large-scale land application of biochar may provide sustainable pathways to increase the terrestrial storage of carbon. Biochar has a long residence time in the soil and hence comprehensive studies are urgently needed to quantify the environmental impacts of large-scale biochar application. In particular, black carbon emissions from soils amended with biochar may counteract the negative emission potential due to the impacts on air quality, climate, and biogeochemical cycles. We investigated, using wind tunnel experiments, the particulate matter emission potential of a sand and two agriculturally important soils amended with different concentrations of biochar, in comparison to control soils. Our results indicate that biochar application considerably increases particulate emissions possibly by two mechanisms-the accelerated emission of fine biochar particles and the generation and emission of fine biochar particles resulting from abrasion of large biochar particles by sand grains. Our study highlights the importance of considering the background soil properties (e.g., texture) and geomorphological processes (e.g., aeolian transport) for biochar-based carbon sequestration programs.

Impact vaporization: Late time phenomena from experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.; Gault, D. E.

1987-01-01

While simple airflow produced by the outward movement of the ejecta curtain can be scaled to large dimensions, the interaction between an impact-vaporized component and the ejecta curtain is more complicated. The goal of these experiments was to examine such interaction in a real system involving crater growth, ejection of material, two phased mixtures of gas and dust, and strong pressure gradients. The results will be complemented by theoretical studies at laboratory scales in order to separate the various parameters for planetary scale processes. These experiments prompt, however, the following conclusions that may have relevance at broader scales. First, under near vacuum or low atmospheric pressures, an expanding vapor cloud scours the surrounding surface in advance of arriving ejecta. Second, the effect of early-time vaporization is relatively unimportant at late-times. Third, the overpressure created within the crater cavity by significant vaporization results in increased cratering efficiency and larger aspect ratios.

A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

2015-05-01

A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution LSM this work allows for progress on hydrological monitoring and predictions, as well as drought preparedness and water impact assessments at relevant decision-making scales.

Design Criteria for Future Fuels and Related Power Systems Addressing the Impacts of Non-CO2 Pollutants on Human Health and Climate Change.

PubMed

Schauer, James Jay

2015-01-01

Concerns over the economics, supply chain, and emissions of greenhouse gases associated with the wide use of fossil fuels have led to increasing interest in developing alternative and renewable fuels for stationary power generation and transportation systems. Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding the economic and environmental impacts of alternative and renewable fuels, there is a great need for assessment of potential and emerging fuels to guide research priorities and infrastructure investment. Likewise, there is a great need to identify potential unintended adverse impacts of new fuels and related power systems before they are widely adopted. Historically, the environmental impacts of emerging fuels and power systems have largely focused on carbon dioxide emissions, often called the carbon footprint, which is used to assess impacts on climate change. Such assessments largely ignore the large impacts of emissions of other air pollutants. Given the potential changes in emissions of air pollutants associated with the large-scale use of new and emerging fuels and power systems, there is a great need to better guide efforts to develop new fuels and power systems that can avoid unexpected adverse impacts on the environment and human health. This review covers the nature of emissions, including the key components and impacts from the use of fuels, and the design criteria for future fuels and associated power systems to assure that the non-CO2 adverse impacts of stationary power generation and transportation are minimized.

Cross-cultural differences in health-related quality of life of people with epilepsy: findings from a European study.

PubMed

Buck, D; Jacoby, A; Baker, G A; Ley, H; Steen, N

1999-12-01

To examine between-country differences in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of adults with epilepsy across a large number of European countries. Self-completion postal questionnaire sent to large sample of adults with epilepsy, recruited from epilepsy support groups or epilepsy outpatient clinics. The questionnaire was developed in English and translated. Back-translations from each language were checked for accuracy. The questionnaire sought information on clinical and socio-demographic details, and contained a number of previously validated scales of psychosocial well-being (the SF-36, the perceived impact of epilepsy scale, and a feelings of stigma scale). Controlling for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, significant between-country differences were found in scores on the perceived impact of epilepsy scale, on seven of the eight SF-36 domains, and on the feelings of stigma scale. Respondents in Spain and the Netherlands fared consistently better, whilst those in France fared poorest, compared to those in other countries in terms of the various HRQOL measures used. Several possible reasons for the cross-cultural differences in HRQOL are proposed. Clearly, there is no single explanation and there may also be reasons which we have overlooked. This study emphasises the need for further comprehensive research in order that the position of people with epilepsy in different countries be more thoroughly understood in the social context.

An evaluation of Health of the Nation Outcome Scales data to inform psychiatric morbidity following the Canterbury earthquakes.

PubMed

Beaglehole, Ben; Frampton, Chris M; Boden, Joseph M; Mulder, Roger T; Bell, Caroline J

2017-11-01

Following the onset of the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquakes, there were widespread concerns that mental health services were under severe strain as a result of adverse consequences on mental health. We therefore examined Health of the Nation Outcome Scales data to see whether this could inform our understanding of the impact of the Canterbury earthquakes on patients attending local specialist mental health services. Health of the Nation Outcome Scales admission data were analysed for Canterbury mental health services prior to and following the Canterbury earthquakes. These findings were compared to Health of the Nation Outcome Scales admission data from seven other large District Health Boards to delineate local from national trends. Percentage changes in admission numbers were also calculated before and after the earthquakes for Canterbury and the seven other large district health boards. Admission Health of the Nation Outcome Scales scores in Canterbury increased after the earthquakes for adult inpatient and community services, old age inpatient and community services, and Child and Adolescent inpatient services compared to the seven other large district health boards. Admission Health of the Nation Outcome Scales scores for Child and Adolescent community services did not change significantly, while admission Health of the Nation Outcome Scales scores for Alcohol and Drug services in Canterbury fell compared to other large district health boards. Subscale analysis showed that the majority of Health of the Nation Outcome Scales subscales contributed to the overall increases found. Percentage changes in admission numbers for the Canterbury District Health Board and the seven other large district health boards before and after the earthquakes were largely comparable with the exception of admissions to inpatient services for the group aged 4-17 years which showed a large increase. The Canterbury earthquakes were followed by an increase in Health of the Nation Outcome Scales scores for attendees of local mental health services compared to other large district health boards. This suggests that patients presented with greater degrees of psychiatric distress, social disruption, behavioural change and impairment as a result of the earthquakes.

A Commercialization Roadmap for Carbon-Negative Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, D.

2016-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) envisages the need for large-scale deployment of net-negative CO2 emissions technologies by mid-century to meet stringent climate mitigation goals and yield a net drawdown of atmospheric carbon. Yet there are few commercial deployments of BECCS outside of niche markets, creating uncertainty about commercialization pathways and sustainability impacts at scale. This uncertainty is exacerbated by the absence of a strong policy framework, such as high carbon prices and research coordination. Here, we propose a strategy for the potential commercial deployment of BECCS. This roadmap proceeds via three steps: 1) via capture and utilization of biogenic CO2 from existing bioenergy facilities, notably ethanol fermentation, 2) via thermochemical co-conversion of biomass and fossil fuels, particularly coal, and 3) via dedicated, large-scale BECCS. Although biochemical conversion is a proven first market for BECCS, this trajectory alone is unlikely to drive commercialization of BECCS at the gigatonne scale. In contrast to biochemical conversion, thermochemical conversion of coal and biomass enables large-scale production of fuels and electricity with a wide range of carbon intensities, process efficiencies and process scales. Aside from systems integration, primarily technical barriers are involved in large-scale biomass logistics, gasification and gas cleaning. Key uncertainties around large-scale BECCS deployment are not limited to commercialization pathways; rather, they include physical constraints on biomass cultivation or CO2 storage, as well as social barriers, including public acceptance of new technologies and conceptions of renewable and fossil energy, which co-conversion systems confound. Despite sustainability risks, this commercialization strategy presents a pathway where energy suppliers, manufacturers and governments could transition from laggards to leaders in climate change mitigation efforts.

Role of slope stability in cumulative impact assessment of hydropower development: North Cascades, Washington

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, R.R.; Staub, W.P.

1993-08-01

Two environmental assessments considered the potential cumulative environmental impacts resulting from the development of eight proposed hydropower projects in the Nooksack River Basin and 11 proposed projects in the Skagit River Basin, North Cascades, Washington, respectively. While not identified as a target resource, slope stability and the alteration of sediment supply to creeks and river mainstems significantly affect other resources. The slope stability assessment emphasized the potential for cumulative impacts under disturbed conditions (e.g., road construction and timber harvesting) and a landslide-induced pipeline rupture scenario. In the case of small-scale slides, the sluicing action of ruptured pipeline water on themore » fresh landslide scarp was found to be capable of eroding significantly more material than the original landslide. For large-scale landslides, sluiced material was found to be a small increment of the original landslide. These results predicted that hypothetical accidental pipeline rupture by small-scale landslides may result in potential cumulative impacts for 12 of the 19 projects with pending license applications in both river basins. 5 refs., 2 tabs.« less

A scaling relationship for impact-induced melt volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakajima, M.; Rubie, D. C.; Melosh, H., IV; Jacobson, S. A.; Golabek, G.; Nimmo, F.; Morbidelli, A.

2016-12-01

During the late stages of planetary accretion, protoplanets experience a number of giant impacts and extensive mantle melting. The impactor's core sinks through the molten part of the target mantle (magma ocean) and experiences metal-silicate partitioning (e.g., Stevenson, 1990). For understanding the chemical evolution of the planetary mantle and core, we need to determine the impact-induced melt volume because the partitioning strongly depends on the ranges of the pressures and temperatures within the magma ocean. Previous studies have investigated the effects of small impacts (i.e. impact cratering) on melt volume, but those for giant impacts are not well understood yet. Here, we perform giant impact simulations to derive a scaling law for melt volume as a function of impact velocity, impact angle, and impactor-to-target mass ratio. We use two different numerical codes, namely smoothed particle hydrodynamics we developed (SPH, a particle method) and the code iSALE (a grid-based method) to compare their outcomes. Our simulations show that these two codes generally agree as long as the same equation of state is used. We also find that some of the previous studies developed for small impacts (e.g., Abramov et al., 2012) overestimate giant impact melt volume by orders of magnitudes partly because these models do not consider self-gravity of the impacting bodies. Therefore, these models may not be extrapolated to large impacts. Our simulations also show that melt volume can be scaled by the total mass of the system. In this presentation, we further discuss geochemical implications for giant impacts on planets, including Earth and Mars.

A Matter of Time: Faster Percolator Analysis via Efficient SVM Learning for Large-Scale Proteomics.

PubMed

Halloran, John T; Rocke, David M

2018-05-04

Percolator is an important tool for greatly improving the results of a database search and subsequent downstream analysis. Using support vector machines (SVMs), Percolator recalibrates peptide-spectrum matches based on the learned decision boundary between targets and decoys. To improve analysis time for large-scale data sets, we update Percolator's SVM learning engine through software and algorithmic optimizations rather than heuristic approaches that necessitate the careful study of their impact on learned parameters across different search settings and data sets. We show that by optimizing Percolator's original learning algorithm, l 2 -SVM-MFN, large-scale SVM learning requires nearly only a third of the original runtime. Furthermore, we show that by employing the widely used Trust Region Newton (TRON) algorithm instead of l 2 -SVM-MFN, large-scale Percolator SVM learning is reduced to nearly only a fifth of the original runtime. Importantly, these speedups only affect the speed at which Percolator converges to a global solution and do not alter recalibration performance. The upgraded versions of both l 2 -SVM-MFN and TRON are optimized within the Percolator codebase for multithreaded and single-thread use and are available under Apache license at bitbucket.org/jthalloran/percolator_upgrade .

Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting: Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Precipitation Downscaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Walker, Greg; Mahanama, Sarith; Reichle, Rolf

2012-01-01

Continental-scale offline simulations with a land surface model are used to address two important issues in the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which the downscaling of seasonal precipitation forecasts, if it could be done accurately, would improve streamflow forecasts. The reduction in streamflow forecast skill (with forecasted streamflow measured against observations) associated with adding noise to a soil moisture field is found to be, to first order, proportional to the average reduction in the accuracy of the soil moisture field itself. This result has implications for streamflow forecast improvement under satellite-based soil moisture measurement programs. In the second and more idealized ("perfect model") analysis, precipitation downscaling is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only if two conditions are met: (i) evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance, and (ii) the subgrid spatial variance of precipitation is adequately large. In the large-scale continental region studied (the conterminous United States), these two conditions are met in only a somewhat limited area.

Interannual Variability in the Position and Strength of the East Asian Jet Stream and Its Relation to Large - scale Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Duo; Zhang, Yang; Wu, Qigang

2013-04-01

East Asian Jet Stream (EASJ) is charactered by obvious interannual variability in strength and position (latitude), with wide impacts on East Asian climate in all seasons. In this study, two indices are established to measure the interannual variability in intensity and position of EAJS. Possible causing factors, including both local signals and non-local large-scale circulation, are examined using NCAP-NCAR reanalysis data to investigate their relations with jet variation. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the interannual variations of EASJ and these factors depends on seasons. In the summer, both the intensity and position of EASJ are closely related to the meridional gradient of local surface temperature, but display no apparent relationship with the larg-scale circulation. In cold seasons (autumn, winter and spring), both the local factor and the large-scale circulation, i.e. the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), play important roles in the interannual variability of the jet intensity. The variability in the jet position, however, is more correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), especially in winter. Diagnostic analysis indicates that transient eddy activity plays an important role in connecting the interannual variability of EASJ position with AO.

A large-scale forest fragmentation experiment: the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems Project.

PubMed

Ewers, Robert M; Didham, Raphael K; Fahrig, Lenore; Ferraz, Gonçalo; Hector, Andy; Holt, Robert D; Kapos, Valerie; Reynolds, Glen; Sinun, Waidi; Snaddon, Jake L; Turner, Edgar C

2011-11-27

Opportunities to conduct large-scale field experiments are rare, but provide a unique opportunity to reveal the complex processes that operate within natural ecosystems. Here, we review the design of existing, large-scale forest fragmentation experiments. Based on this review, we develop a design for the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a new forest fragmentation experiment to be located in the lowland tropical forests of Borneo (Sabah, Malaysia). The SAFE Project represents an advance on existing experiments in that it: (i) allows discrimination of the effects of landscape-level forest cover from patch-level processes; (ii) is designed to facilitate the unification of a wide range of data types on ecological patterns and processes that operate over a wide range of spatial scales; (iii) has greater replication than existing experiments; (iv) incorporates an experimental manipulation of riparian corridors; and (v) embeds the experimentally fragmented landscape within a wider gradient of land-use intensity than do existing projects. The SAFE Project represents an opportunity for ecologists across disciplines to participate in a large initiative designed to generate a broad understanding of the ecological impacts of tropical forest modification.

A large-scale forest fragmentation experiment: the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems Project

PubMed Central

Ewers, Robert M.; Didham, Raphael K.; Fahrig, Lenore; Ferraz, Gonçalo; Hector, Andy; Holt, Robert D.; Kapos, Valerie; Reynolds, Glen; Sinun, Waidi; Snaddon, Jake L.; Turner, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Opportunities to conduct large-scale field experiments are rare, but provide a unique opportunity to reveal the complex processes that operate within natural ecosystems. Here, we review the design of existing, large-scale forest fragmentation experiments. Based on this review, we develop a design for the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a new forest fragmentation experiment to be located in the lowland tropical forests of Borneo (Sabah, Malaysia). The SAFE Project represents an advance on existing experiments in that it: (i) allows discrimination of the effects of landscape-level forest cover from patch-level processes; (ii) is designed to facilitate the unification of a wide range of data types on ecological patterns and processes that operate over a wide range of spatial scales; (iii) has greater replication than existing experiments; (iv) incorporates an experimental manipulation of riparian corridors; and (v) embeds the experimentally fragmented landscape within a wider gradient of land-use intensity than do existing projects. The SAFE Project represents an opportunity for ecologists across disciplines to participate in a large initiative designed to generate a broad understanding of the ecological impacts of tropical forest modification. PMID:22006969

A Mixed-dimensional Model for Determining the Impact of Permafrost Polygonal Ground Degradation on Arctic Hydrology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coon, E.; Jan, A.; Painter, S. L.; Moulton, J. D.; Wilson, C. J.

2017-12-01

Many permafrost-affected regions in the Arctic manifest a polygonal patterned ground, which contains large carbon stores and is vulnerability to climate change as warming temperatures drive melting ice wedges, polygon degradation, and thawing of the underlying carbon-rich soils. Understanding the fate of this carbon is difficult. The system is controlled by complex, nonlinear physics coupling biogeochemistry, thermal-hydrology, and geomorphology, and there is a strong spatial scale separation between microtopograpy (at the scale of an individual polygon) and the scale of landscape change (at the scale of many thousands of polygons). Physics-based models have come a long way, and are now capable of representing the diverse set of processes, but only on individual polygons or a few polygons. Empirical models have been used to upscale across land types, including ecotypes evolving from low-centered (pristine) polygons to high-centered (degraded) polygon, and do so over large spatial extent, but are limited in their ability to discern causal process mechanisms. Here we present a novel strategy that looks to use physics-based models across scales, bringing together multiple capabilities to capture polygon degradation under a warming climate and its impacts on thermal-hydrology. We use fine-scale simulations on individual polygons to motivate a mixed-dimensional strategy that couples one-dimensional columns representing each individual polygon through two-dimensional surface flow. A subgrid model is used to incorporate the effects of surface microtopography on surface flow; this model is described and calibrated to fine-scale simulations. And critically, a subsidence model that tracks volume loss in bulk ice wedges is used to alter the subsurface structure and subgrid parameters, enabling the inclusion of the feedbacks associated with polygon degradation. This combined strategy results in a model that is able to capture the key features of polygon permafrost degradation, but in a simulation across a large spatial extent of polygonal tundra.

Current status and challenges for automotive battery production technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwade, Arno; Haselrieder, Wolfgang; Leithoff, Ruben; Modlinger, Armin; Dietrich, Franz; Droeder, Klaus

2018-04-01

Production technology for automotive lithium-ion battery (LIB) cells and packs has improved considerably in the past five years. However, the transfer of developments in materials, cell design and processes from lab scale to production scale remains a challenge due to the large number of consecutive process steps and the significant impact of material properties, electrode compositions and cell designs on processes. This requires an in-depth understanding of the individual production processes and their interactions, and pilot-scale investigations into process parameter selection and prototype cell production. Furthermore, emerging process concepts must be developed at lab and pilot scale that reduce production costs and improve cell performance. Here, we present an introductory summary of the state-of-the-art production technologies for automotive LIBs. We then discuss the key relationships between process, quality and performance, as well as explore the impact of materials and processes on scale and cost. Finally, future developments and innovations that aim to overcome the main challenges are presented.

Impact of urbanization and gardening practices on common butterfly communities in France.

PubMed

Fontaine, Benoît; Bergerot, Benjamin; Le Viol, Isabelle; Julliard, Romain

2016-11-01

We investigated the interacting impacts of urban landscape and gardening practices on the species richness and total abundance of communities of common butterfly communities across France, using data from a nationwide monitoring scheme. We show that urbanization has a strong negative impact on butterfly richness and abundance but that at a local scale, such impact could be mitigated by gardening practices favoring nectar offer. We found few interactions among these landscape and local scale effects, indicating that butterfly-friendly gardening practices are efficient whatever the level of surrounding urbanization. We further highlight that species being the most negatively affected by urbanization are the most sensitive to gardening practices: Garden management can thus partly counterbalance the deleterious effect of urbanization for butterfly communities. This holds a strong message for park managers and private gardeners, as gardens may act as potential refuge for butterflies when the overall landscape is largely unsuitable.

High School Closures in New York City: Impacts on Students' Academic Outcomes, Attendance, and Mobility. Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemple, James J.

2015-01-01

In the first decade of the 21st century, the New York City (NYC) Department of Education implemented a set of large-scale and much debated high school reforms, which included closing large, low-performing schools, opening new small schools, and extending high school choice to students throughout the district. The school closure process was the…

High School Closures in New York City: Impacts on Students' Academic Outcomes, Attendance, and Mobility. Technical Appendices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemple, James J.

2015-01-01

In the first decade of the 21st century, the New York City (NYC) Department of Education implemented a set of large-scale and much debated high school reforms, which included closing large, low-performing schools, opening new small schools, and extending high school choice to students throughout the district. The school closure process was the…

High School Closures in New York City: Impacts on Students' Academic Outcomes, Attendance, and Mobility. Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemple, James J.

2015-01-01

In the first decade of the 21st century, the New York City (NYC) Department of Education implemented a set of large-scale and much debated high school reforms, which included closing large, low-performing schools, opening new small schools, and extending high school choice to students throughout the district. The school closure process was the…

Seven Defense Priorities for the New Administration

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-16

impacted by the inherent difference between very large companies , which the DoD relies on to produce systems at scale, and small companies , which...inhibit innovation. Many companies recognize this problem and attempt to isolate small development or prototyping organizations from the rest of the...between small and large companies can disincentivize both to effectively work with each other. Lastly, a disconnect can also occur when an innovative

Greenhouse gas aerosols and pollutants over Siberia: the YAK-AEROSIB French Russian Joint International Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, Jean-Daniel; Belan, Boris D.; Ancellet, Gérard; Nédélec, Philippe; Arshinov, Mikhail Yu.; Pruvost, Arnaud; Berchet, Antoine; Arzoumanian, Emmanuel; Pison, Isabelle; Ciais, Philippe; Law, Kathy

2014-05-01

Despite the unique scientific value of better knowing atmospheric composition over Siberia, regional observations of the tropospheric composition over this region are still lacking. Large local anthropogenic emissions, strong ecosystem gas exchange across the vast forest expanse, and processes feeding back to global climate such as wetlands CH4 emissions, seabed hydrates destabilization and degrading permafrost make this region particularly crucial to investigate. We aim at addressing this need in the YAK-AEROSIB program by collecting high-precision in-situ measurements of the vertical distribution of CO2, CH4, CO, O3, black carbon and ultrafine particles distribution in the Siberian troposphere, as well as other parameters including aerosol lidar profiles, on a pan-Siberian aircraft transect. Campaigns are performed almost annually since 2006 until now on this regular route, while special campaigns are occasionnally arranged to sample the troposphere elsewere (e.g. Russian Arctic coast). We show the background tropospheric composition obtained from these surveys, the variability and the impact of large-scale transport of anthropogenic emissions from Europe and Asia, as well as the impact of biomass burning plumes both from local wildfires (2012) and from remote sources elsewhere in Asia. Long range transport of anthropogenic emissions is shown to have a discernible impact on O3 distribution, although its lower-tropospheric variability is largely driven by surface deposition. Regional sources and sinks drive the lower troposphere CO2 and CH4 concentrations. Recent efforts aim at better understanding the respective role of CH4 emission processes (including methanogenesis in wetlands and emissions by wildfires) in driving its large scale atmospheric variability over the region. Generally, the YAK AEROSIB provide unique observations over Siberia, documenting both direct impact of regional sources and aged air masses experiencing long range transport toward the high Arctic.

Geology of the V28 Quadrangle: Hecate Chasma, Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stofan, E. R.; Guest, J. E.; Brian, A. W.

2000-01-01

The Hecate Chasma Quadrangle (V28), mapped at 1:5,000,000 scale, extends from 0-25 N and 240-270 Longitude. The quadrangle has thirteen impact craters, several large volcanoes, many coronae, three chasmata, and northern Hinemoa Planitia.

Approximate Computing Techniques for Iterative Graph Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Panyala, Ajay R.; Subasi, Omer; Halappanavar, Mahantesh

Approximate computing enables processing of large-scale graphs by trading off quality for performance. Approximate computing techniques have become critical not only due to the emergence of parallel architectures but also the availability of large scale datasets enabling data-driven discovery. Using two prototypical graph algorithms, PageRank and community detection, we present several approximate computing heuristics to scale the performance with minimal loss of accuracy. We present several heuristics including loop perforation, data caching, incomplete graph coloring and synchronization, and evaluate their efficiency. We demonstrate performance improvements of up to 83% for PageRank and up to 450x for community detection, with lowmore » impact of accuracy for both the algorithms. We expect the proposed approximate techniques will enable scalable graph analytics on data of importance to several applications in science and their subsequent adoption to scale similar graph algorithms.« less

The impact of radiatively active water-ice clouds on Martian mesoscale atmospheric circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiga, A.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Hinson, D.; Navarro, T.; Forget, F.

2014-04-01

Background and Goals Water ice clouds are a key component of the Martian climate [1]. Understanding the properties of the Martian water ice clouds is crucial to constrain the Red Planet's climate and hydrological cycle both in the present and in the past [2]. In recent years, this statement have become all the more true as it was shown that the radiative effects of water ice clouds is far from being as negligible as hitherto believed; water ice clouds plays instead a key role in the large-scale thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian atmosphere [3, 4, 5]. Nevertheless, the radiative effect of water ice clouds at lower scales than the large synoptic scale (the so-called meso-scales) is still left to be explored. Here we use for the first time mesoscale modeling with radiatively active water ice clouds to address this open question.

Lee waves: Benign and malignant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wurtele, M. G.; Datta, A.; Sharman, R. D.

1993-01-01

The flow of an incompressible fluid over an obstacle will produce an oscillation in which buoyancy is the restoring force, called a gravity wave. For disturbances of this scale, the atmosphere may be treated as dynamically incompressible, even though there exists a mean static upward density gradient. Even in the linear approximation - i.e., for small disturbances - this model explains a great many of the flow phenomena observed in the lee of mountains. However, nonlinearities do arise importantly, in three ways: (1) through amplification due to the decrease of mean density with height; (2) through the large (scaled) size of the obstacle, such as a mountain range; and (3) from dynamically singular levels in the fluid field. These effects produce a complicated array of phenomena - large departure of the streamlines from their equilibrium levels, high winds, generation of small scales, turbulence, etc. - that present hazards to aircraft and to lee surface areas. The nonlinear disturbances also interact with the larger-scale flow in such a manner as to impact global weather forecasts and the climatological momentum balance. If there is no dynamic barrier, these waves can penetrate vertically into the middle atmosphere (30-100 km), where recent observations show them to be of a length scale that must involve the coriolis force in any modeling. At these altitudes, the amplitude of the waves is very large, and the phenomena associated with these wave dynamics are being studied with a view to their potential impact on high performance aircraft, including the projected National Aerospace Plane (NASP). The presentation shows the results of analysis and of state-of-the-art numerical simulations, validated where possible by observational data, and illustrated with photographs from nature.

Resuscitation and Obstetrical Care to Reduce Intrapartum-Related Neonatal Deaths: A MANDATE Study.

PubMed

Kamath-Rayne, Beena D; Griffin, Jennifer B; Moran, Katelin; Jones, Bonnie; Downs, Allan; McClure, Elizabeth M; Goldenberg, Robert L; Rouse, Doris; Jobe, Alan H

2015-08-01

To evaluate the impact of neonatal resuscitation and basic obstetric care on intrapartum-related neonatal mortality in low and middle-income countries, using the mathematical model, Maternal and Neonatal Directed Assessment of Technology (MANDATE). Using MANDATE, we evaluated the impact of interventions for intrapartum-related events causing birth asphyxia (basic neonatal resuscitation, advanced neonatal care, increasing facility birth, and emergency obstetric care) when implemented in home, clinic, and hospital settings of sub-Saharan African and India for 2008. Total intrapartum-related neonatal mortality (IRNM) was acute neonatal deaths from intrapartum-related events plus late neonatal deaths from ongoing intrapartum-related injury. Introducing basic neonatal resuscitation in all settings had a large impact on decreasing IRNM. Increasing facility births and scaling up emergency obstetric care in clinics and hospitals also had a large impact on decreasing IRNM. Increasing prevalence and utilization of advanced neonatal care in hospital settings had limited impact on IRNM. The greatest improvement in IRNM was seen with widespread advanced neonatal care and basic neonatal resuscitation, scaled-up emergency obstetric care in clinics and hospitals, and increased facility deliveries, resulting in an estimated decrease in IRNM to 2.0 per 1,000 live births in India and 2.5 per 1,000 live births in sub-Saharan Africa. With more deliveries occurring in clinics and hospitals, the scale-up of obstetric care can have a greater effect than if modeled individually. Use of MANDATE enables health leaders to direct resources towards interventions that could prevent intrapartum-related deaths. A lack of widespread implementation of basic neonatal resuscitation, increased facility births, and emergency obstetric care are missed opportunities to save newborn lives.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Iverson, Louis; Woodall, Christopher W; Allen, Craig D; Bell, David M; Bragg, Don C; D'Amato, Anthony W; Davis, Frank W; Hersh, Michelle H; Ibanez, Ines; Jackson, Stephen T; Matthews, Stephen; Pederson, Neil; Peters, Matthew; Schwartz, Mark W; Waring, Kristen M; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-07-01

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Formation of Apollo 16 impactites and the composition of late accreted material: Constraints from Os isotopes, highly siderophile elements and sulfur abundances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleißner, Philipp; Becker, Harry

2017-03-01

Fe-Ni metal-schreibersite-troilite intergrowths in Apollo 16 impact melt rocks and new highly siderophile element (HSE) and S abundance data indicate that millimeter-scale closed-system fractional crystallization processes during cooling of impactor-derived metal melt droplets in impact-melts are the main reason for compositional variations and strong differences in abundances and ratios of HSE in multiple aliquots from Apollo 16 impact melt rocks. Element ratios obtained from linear regression of such data are therefore prone to error, but weighted averages take into account full element budgets in the samples and thus represent a more accurate estimate of their impactor contributions. Modeling of solid metal-liquid metal partitioning in the Fe-Ni-S-P system and HSE patterns in impactites from different landing sites suggest that bulk compositions of ancient lunar impactites should be representative of impact melt compositions and that large-scale fractionation of the HSE by in situ segregation of solid metal or sulfide liquid in impact melt sheets most likely did not occur. The compositional record of lunar impactites indicates accretion of variable amounts of chondritic and non-chondritic impactor material and the mixing of these components during remelting of earlier ejecta deposits. The non-chondritic composition appears most prominently in some Apollo 16 impactites and is characterized by suprachondritic HSE/Ir ratios which increase from refractory to moderately volatile HSE and exhibit a characteristic enrichment of Ru relative to Pt. Large-scale fractional crystallization of solid metal from sulfur and phosphorous rich metallic melt with high P/S in planetesimal or embryo cores is currently the most likely process that may have produced these compositions. Similar materials or processes may have contributed to the HSE signature of the bulk silicate Earth (BSE).

Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Widder, Sarah H.; Butner, R. Scott; Elliott, Michael L.

2011-11-30

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has the ability to dramatically reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power production. Most studies find the potential for 70 to 80 percent reductions in CO2 emissions on a life-cycle basis, depending on the technology. Because of this potential, utilities and policymakers are considering the wide-spread implementation of CCS technology on new and existing coal plants to dramatically curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the power generation sector. However, the implementation of CCS systems will have many other social, economic, and environmental impacts beyond curbing GHG emissions that must be considered to achieve sustainable energymore » generation. For example, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), and particulate matter (PM) are also important environmental concerns for coal-fired power plants. For example, several studies have shown that eutrophication is expected to double and acidification would increase due to increases in NOx emissions for a coal plant with CCS provided by monoethanolamine (MEA) scrubbing. Potential for human health risks is also expected to increase due to increased heavy metals in water from increased coal mining and MEA hazardous waste, although there is currently not enough information to relate this potential to actual realized health impacts. In addition to environmental and human health impacts, supply chain impacts and other social, economic, or strategic impacts will be important to consider. A thorough review of the literature for life-cycle analyses of power generation processes using CCS technology via the MEA absorption process, and other energy generation technologies as applicable, yielded large variability in methods and core metrics. Nonetheless, a few key areas of impact for CCS were developed from the studies that we reviewed. These are: the impact of MEA generation on increased eutrophication and acidification from ammonia emissions and increased toxicity from MEA production and the impact of increased coal use including the increased generation of NOx from combustion and transportation, impacts of increased mining of coal and limestone, and the disposal of toxic fly ash and boiler ash waste streams. Overall, the implementing CCS technology could contribute to a dramatic decrease in global GHG emissions, while most other environmental and human health impact categories increase only slightly on a global scale. However, the impacts on human toxicity and ecotoxicity have not been studied as extensively and could have more severe impacts on a regional or local scale. More research is needed to draw strong conclusions with respect to the specific relative impact of different CCS technologies. Specifically, a more robust data set that disaggregates data in terms of component processes and treats a more comprehensive set of environmental impacts categories from a life-cycle perspective is needed. In addition, the current LCA framework lacks the required temporal and spatial scales to determine the risk of environmental impact from carbon sequestration. Appropriate factors to use when assessing the risk of water acidification (groundwater/oceans/aquifers depending on sequestration site), risk of increased human toxicity impact from large accidental releases from pipeline or wells, and the legal and public policy risk associated with licensing CO2 sequestration sites are also not currently addressed. In addition to identifying potential environmental, social, or risk-related issues that could impede the large-scale deployment of CCS, performing LCA-based studies on energy generation technologies can suggest places to focus our efforts to achieve technically feasible, economically viable, and environmentally conscious energy generation technologies for maximum impact.« less

Public Health Crisis in War and Conflict - Health Security in Aggregate.

PubMed

Quinn, John; Zelený, Tomáš; Subramaniam, Rammika; Bencko, Vladimír

2017-03-01

Public health status of populations is multifactorial and besides other factors it is linked to war and conflict. Public health crisis can erupt when states go to war or are invaded; health security may be reduced for affected populations. This study reviews in aggregate multiple indices of human security, human development and legitimacy of the state in order to describe a predictable global health portrait. Paradigm shift of large global powers to that non-state actors and proxies impact regional influence through scaled conflict and present major global health challenges for policy makers. Small scale conflict with large scale violence threatens health security for at-risk populations. The paper concludes that health security is directly proportional to state security. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Movement reveals scale dependence in habitat selection of a large ungulate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Northrup, Joseph; Anderson, Charles R.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Wittemyer, George

2016-01-01

Ecological processes operate across temporal and spatial scales. Anthropogenic disturbances impact these processes, but examinations of scale dependence in impacts are infrequent. Such examinations can provide important insight to wildlife–human interactions and guide management efforts to reduce impacts. We assessed spatiotemporal scale dependence in habitat selection of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Piceance Basin of Colorado, USA, an area of ongoing natural gas development. We employed a newly developed animal movement method to assess habitat selection across scales defined using animal-centric spatiotemporal definitions ranging from the local (defined from five hour movements) to the broad (defined from weekly movements). We extended our analysis to examine variation in scale dependence between night and day and assess functional responses in habitat selection patterns relative to the density of anthropogenic features. Mule deer displayed scale invariance in the direction of their response to energy development features, avoiding well pads and the areas closest to roads at all scales, though with increasing strength of avoidance at coarser scales. Deer displayed scale-dependent responses to most other habitat features, including land cover type and habitat edges. Selection differed between night and day at the finest scales, but homogenized as scale increased. Deer displayed functional responses to development, with deer inhabiting the least developed ranges more strongly avoiding development relative to those with more development in their ranges. Energy development was a primary driver of habitat selection patterns in mule deer, structuring their behaviors across all scales examined. Stronger avoidance at coarser scales suggests that deer behaviorally mediated their interaction with development, but only to a degree. At higher development densities than seen in this area, such mediation may not be possible and thus maintenance of sufficient habitat with lower development densities will be a critical best management practice as development expands globally.

A Large-Scale Analysis of Impact Factor Biased Journal Self-Citations.

PubMed

Chorus, Caspar; Waltman, Ludo

2016-01-01

Based on three decades of citation data from across scientific fields of science, we study trends in impact factor biased self-citations of scholarly journals, using a purpose-built and easy to use citation based measure. Our measure is given by the ratio between i) the relative share of journal self-citations to papers published in the last two years, and ii) the relative share of journal self-citations to papers published in preceding years. A ratio higher than one suggests that a journal's impact factor is disproportionally affected (inflated) by self-citations. Using recently reported survey data, we show that there is a relation between high values of our proposed measure and coercive journal self-citation malpractices. We use our measure to perform a large-scale analysis of impact factor biased journal self-citations. Our main empirical result is, that the share of journals for which our measure has a (very) high value has remained stable between the 1980s and the early 2000s, but has since risen strongly in all fields of science. This time span corresponds well with the growing obsession with the impact factor as a journal evaluation measure over the last decade. Taken together, this suggests a trend of increasingly pervasive journal self-citation malpractices, with all due unwanted consequences such as inflated perceived importance of journals and biased journal rankings.

Support for solar energy: Examining sense of place and utility-scale development in California

DOE PAGES

Carlisle, Juliet E.; Kane, Stephanie L.; Solan, David; ...

2014-08-20

As solar costs have declined PV systems have experienced considerable growth since 2003, especially in China, Japan, Germany, and the U.S. Thus, a more nuanced understanding of a particular public's attitudes toward utility-scale solar development, as it arrives in a market and region, is warranted and will likely be instructive for other areas in the world where this type of development will occur in the near future. Using data collected from a 2013 telephone survey (N=594) from the six Southern Californian counties selected based on existing and proposed solar developments and available suitable land, we examine public attitudes toward solarmore » energy and construction of large-scale solar facilities, testing whether attitudes toward such developments are the result of sense of place and attachment to place. Overall, we have mixed results. Place attachment and sense of place fail to produce significant effects except in terms of perceived positive benefits. That is, respondents interpret the change resulting from large-scale solar development in a positive way insofar as perceived positive economic impacts are positively related to support for nearby large-scale construction.« less

Support for solar energy: Examining sense of place and utility-scale development in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Juliet E. Carlisle; Stephanie L. Kane; David Solan

2015-07-01

As solar costs have declined PV systems have experienced considerable growth since 2003, especially in China, Japan, Germany, and the U.S. Thus, a more nuanced understanding of a particular public's attitudes toward utility-scale solar development, as it arrives in a market and region, is warranted and will likely be instructive for other areas in the world where this type of development will occur in the near future. Using data collected from a 2013 telephone survey (N = 594) from the six Southern Californian counties selected based on existing and proposed solar developments and available suitable land, we examine public attitudesmore » toward solar energy and construction of large-scale solar facilities, testing whether attitudes toward such developments are the result of sense of place and attachment to place. Overall, we have mixed results. Place attachment and sense of place fail to produce significant effects except in terms of perceived positive benefits. That is, respondents interpret the change resulting from large-scale solar development in a positive way insofar as perceived positive economic impacts are positively related to support for nearby large-scale construction.« less

Effects on aquatic and human health due to large scale bioenergy crop expansion.

PubMed

Love, Bradley J; Einheuser, Matthew D; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan

2011-08-01

In this study, the environmental impacts of large scale bioenergy crops were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Daily pesticide concentration data for a study area consisting of four large watersheds located in Michigan (totaling 53,358 km²) was estimated over a six year period (2000-2005). Model outputs for atrazine, bromoxynil, glyphosate, metolachlor, pendimethalin, sethoxydim, triflualin, and 2,4-D model output were used to predict the possible long-term implications that large-scale bioenergy crop expansion may have on the bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) and humans. Threshold toxicity levels were obtained for the bluegill and for human consumption for all pesticides being evaluated through an extensive literature review. Model output was compared to each toxicity level for the suggested exposure time (96-hour for bluegill and 24-hour for humans). The results suggest that traditional intensive row crops such as canola, corn and sorghum may negatively impact aquatic life, and in most cases affect the safe drinking water availability. The continuous corn rotation, the most representative rotation for current agricultural practices for a starch-based ethanol economy, delivers the highest concentrations of glyphosate to the stream. In addition, continuous canola contributed to a concentration of 1.11 ppm of trifluralin, a highly toxic herbicide, which is 8.7 times the 96-hour ecotoxicity of bluegills and 21 times the safe drinking water level. Also during the period of study, continuous corn resulted in the impairment of 541,152 km of stream. However, there is promise with second-generation lignocellulosic bioenergy crops such as switchgrass, which resulted in a 171,667 km reduction in total stream length that exceeds the human threshold criteria, as compared to the base scenario. Results of this study may be useful in determining the suitability of bioenergy crop rotations and aid in decision making regarding the adaptation of large-scale bioenergy cropping systems. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Driving terrestrial ecosystem models from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waring, R. H.

1993-01-01

Regional air pollution, land-use conversion, and projected climate change all affect ecosystem processes at large scales. Changes in vegetation cover and growth dynamics can impact the functioning of ecosystems, carbon fluxes, and climate. As a result, there is a need to assess and monitor vegetation structure and function comprehensively at regional to global scales. To provide a test of our present understanding of how ecosystems operate at large scales we can compare model predictions of CO2, O2, and methane exchange with the atmosphere against regional measurements of interannual variation in the atmospheric concentration of these gases. Recent advances in remote sensing of the Earth's surface are beginning to provide methods for estimating important ecosystem variables at large scales. Ecologists attempting to generalize across landscapes have made extensive use of models and remote sensing technology. The success of such ventures is dependent on merging insights and expertise from two distinct fields. Ecologists must provide the understanding of how well models emulate important biological variables and their interactions; experts in remote sensing must provide the biophysical interpretation of complex optical reflectance and radar backscatter data.

Examining the Impact and School-Level Predictors of Impact Variability of an 8th Grade Reading Intervention on At-Risk Students' Reading Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fien, Hank; Anderson, Daniel; Nelson, Nancy J.; Kennedy, Patrick; Baker, Scott K.; Stoolmiller, Michael

2018-01-01

The purpose of the present article is to report on a large-scale investigation of six school districts' implementation of an initiative aimed at reducing dropout rates by improving reading achievement in the middle grades. Data for the Middle School Intervention Project (MSIP) were collected in 25 middle schools across the state of Oregon. We…

Uncorrelated Encounter Model of the National Airspace System, Version 2.0

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-19

can exist to certify avoidance systems for operational use. Evaluations typically include flight tests, operational impact studies, and simulation of...appropriate for large-scale air traffic impact studies— for example, examination of sector loading or conflict rates. The focus here includes two types of...between two IFR aircraft in oceanic airspace. The reason for this is that one cannot observe encounters of sufficient fidelity in the available data

An Examination of the Impact of Teacher Quality and "Opportunity Gap" on Student Science Achievement in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Danhui; Campbell, Todd

2015-01-01

This study aims to better understand questions related to the impact of teacher quality and access to qualified teachers in China. A large-scale data set collected in 2010 in China was used along with concurrently collected teacher questionnaires. In total, surveys from 9,943 8th grade students from 343 middle schools in 6 provinces were used,…

Impacts of Social-Emotional Curricula on Three-Year-Olds: Exploratory Findings from the Head Start CARES Demonstration. Research Snapshot. OPRE Report 2014-78

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsueh, JoAnn; Lowenstein, Amy E.; Morris, Pamela; Mattera, Shira K.; Bangser, Michael

2014-01-01

This report presents exploratory impact findings for 3-year-olds from the Head Start CARES demonstration, a large-scale randomized controlled trial implemented in Head Start centers for one academic year across the country. The study was designed primarily to test the effects of the enhancements on 4-year-olds, but it also provides an opportunity…

Convectively-coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Atlantic and African regions and their influence on Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ventrice, Michael J.

High-amplitude convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are explored over the tropical Atlantic during the boreal summer. Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis is found to be more frequent during the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, and most frequent two days after its passage. CCKWs impact convection within the mean latitude of the inter-tropical convergence zone over the northern tropical Atlantic. In addition to convection, CCKWs also impact the large scale environment that favors Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis (i.e., deep vertical wind shear, moisture, and low-level relative vorticity). African easterly waves (AEWs) are known to be the main precursors for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Therefore, the relationship between CCKWs and AEW activity during boreal summer is explored. AEW activity is found to increase over the Guinea Highlands and Darfur Mountains during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW. First, CCKWs increase the number of convective triggers for AEW genesis. Secondly, the associated zonal wind structure of the CCKW is found to affect the horizontal shear on the equatorward side of the African easterly jet (AEJ), such that the jet becomes more unstable during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW. The more unstable AEJ is assumed to play a role with increased AEW growth. Through the increased number of AEWs propagating over the tropical Atlantic, as well as from the direct impact on convection and the large-scale environment over the tropical Atlantic, CCKWs are recommended to be used as a means for medium-range predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclones. In addition to modulating tropical cyclone activity over the tropical Atlantic, CCKWs might impact the intensification processes of tropical cyclones. A case study highlighting two August 2010 tropical cyclones (Danielle and Earl) is explored for potential CCKW-tropical cyclone interactions. While predicted to intensify by most model guidance, both Danielle and Earl struggled to do so. It is shown that Danielle and Earl interacted with the convectively suppressed phase of an eastward propagating CCKW during the time they were predicted to intensify. Composite analysis shows that during and after the passage of the convectively suppressed phase of the CCKW over the Atlantic, large-scale vertical wind shear increases as a result of anomalous upper-level westerlies collocated with anomalous lower-level easterlies. Large-scale subsidence associated with the convectively suppressed phase of the CCKW causes the atmosphere to dry. Further, when the upper-level westerly wind anomalies associated with the CCKW are located over the equatorial Atlantic, a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) develops over the northern tropical Atlantic. TUTTs are upper-level disturbances known to negatively impact the intensity of tropical cyclones. CCKWs over the tropical Atlantic tend to occur during preferable locations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Results show that the MJO significantly modulates Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis using real-time multivariate MJO indices. Like CCKWs, AEW activity is found to vary coherently with MJO passages. Furthermore, the MJO also impacts the large-scale environment that favors for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis. Therefore in addition to CCKWs, the state of the MJO should be used for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis medium-range predictability.

Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

PubMed

Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

2014-01-01

The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

Broad-scale impacts of salmon farms on temperate macroalgal assemblages on rocky reefs.

PubMed

Oh, E S; Edgar, G J; Kirkpatrick, J B; Stuart-Smith, R D; Barrett, N S

2015-09-15

Intensive fish culture in open sea pens delivers large amounts of nutrients to coastal environments. Relative to particulate waste impacts, the ecological impacts of dissolved wastes are poorly known despite their potential to substantially affect nutrient-assimilating components of surrounding ecosystems. Broad-scale enrichment effects of salmonid farms on Tasmanian reef communities were assessed by comparing macroalgal cover at four fixed distances from active fish farm leases across 44 sites. Macroalgal assemblages differed significantly between sites immediately adjacent (100m) to fish farms and reference sites at 5km distance, while sites at 400m and 1km exhibited intermediate characteristics. Epiphyte cover varied consistently with fish farm impacts in both sheltered and exposed locations. The green algae Chaetomorpha spp. predominated near fish farms at swell-exposed sites, whereas filamentous green algae showed elevated densities near sheltered farms. Cover of canopy-forming perennial algae appeared unaffected by fish farm impacts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating biomass quality variability in stochastic supply chain modeling and optimization for large-scale biofuel production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castillo-Villar, Krystel K.; Eksioglu, Sandra; Taherkhorsandi, Milad

The production of biofuels using second-generation feedstocks has been recognized as an important alternative source of sustainable energy and its demand is expected to increase due to regulations such as the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, the pathway to biofuel industry maturity faces unique, unaddressed challenges. Here, to address this challenges, this article presents an optimization model which quantifies and controls the impact of biomass quality variability on supply chain related decisions and technology selection. We propose a two-stage stochastic programming model and associated efficient solution procedures for solving large-scale problems to (1) better represent the random nature of the biomassmore » quality (defined by moisture and ash contents) in supply chain modeling, and (2) assess the impact of these uncertainties on the supply chain design and planning. The proposed model is then applied to a case study in the state of Tennessee. Results show that high moisture and ash contents negatively impact the unit delivery cost since poor biomass quality requires the addition of quality control activities. Experimental results indicate that supply chain cost could increase as much as 27%–31% when biomass quality is poor. We assess the impact of the biomass quality on the topological supply chain. Our case study indicates that biomass quality impacts supply chain costs; thus, it is important to consider the impact of biomass quality in supply chain design and management decisions.« less

Hypervelocity impacts on asteroids and momentum transfer I. Numerical simulations using porous targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jutzi, Martin; Michel, Patrick

2014-02-01

In this paper, we investigate numerically the momentum transferred by impacts of small (artificial) projectiles on asteroids. The study of the momentum transfer efficiency as a function of impact conditions and of the internal structure of an asteroid is crucial for performance assessment of the kinetic impactor concept of deflecting an asteroid from its trajectory. The momentum transfer is characterized by the so-called momentum multiplication factor β, which has been introduced to define the momentum imparted to an asteroid in terms of the momentum of the impactor. Here we present results of code calculations of the β factor for porous targets, in which porosity takes the form of microporosity and/or macroporosity. The results of our study using a large range of impact conditions indicate that the momentum multiplication factor β is small for porous targets even for very high impact velocities (β<2 for vimp⩽15 km/s), which is consistent with published scaling laws and results of laboratory experiments (Holsapple, K.A., Housen, K.R. [2012]. Icarus 221, 875-887; Holsapple, K.A., Housen, K.R. [2013]. Proceedings of the IAA Planetary Defense Conference 2013, Flagstaff, USA). It is found that both porosity and strength can have a large effect on the amount of transferred momentum and on the scaling of β with impact velocity. On the other hand, the macroporous inhomogeneities considered here do not have a significant effect on β.

Integrating biomass quality variability in stochastic supply chain modeling and optimization for large-scale biofuel production

DOE PAGES

Castillo-Villar, Krystel K.; Eksioglu, Sandra; Taherkhorsandi, Milad

2017-02-20

The production of biofuels using second-generation feedstocks has been recognized as an important alternative source of sustainable energy and its demand is expected to increase due to regulations such as the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, the pathway to biofuel industry maturity faces unique, unaddressed challenges. Here, to address this challenges, this article presents an optimization model which quantifies and controls the impact of biomass quality variability on supply chain related decisions and technology selection. We propose a two-stage stochastic programming model and associated efficient solution procedures for solving large-scale problems to (1) better represent the random nature of the biomassmore » quality (defined by moisture and ash contents) in supply chain modeling, and (2) assess the impact of these uncertainties on the supply chain design and planning. The proposed model is then applied to a case study in the state of Tennessee. Results show that high moisture and ash contents negatively impact the unit delivery cost since poor biomass quality requires the addition of quality control activities. Experimental results indicate that supply chain cost could increase as much as 27%–31% when biomass quality is poor. We assess the impact of the biomass quality on the topological supply chain. Our case study indicates that biomass quality impacts supply chain costs; thus, it is important to consider the impact of biomass quality in supply chain design and management decisions.« less

Compounded effects of heat waves and droughts over the Western Electricity Grid: spatio-temporal scales of impacts and predictability toward mitigation and adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Kintner-Meyer, M.; Skaggs, R.; Xie, Y.; Wu, D.; Nguyen, T. B.; Fu, T.; Zhou, T.

2016-12-01

Heat waves and droughts are projected to be more frequent and intense. We have seen in the past the effects of each of those extreme climate events on electricity demand and constrained electricity generation, challenging power system operations. Our aim here is to understand the compounding effects under historical conditions. We present a benchmark of Western US grid performance under 55 years of historical climate, and including droughts, using 2010-level of water demand and water management infrastructure, and 2010-level of electricity grid infrastructure and operations. We leverage CMIP5 historical hydrology simulations and force a large scale river routing- reservoir model with 2010-level sectoral water demands. The regulated flow at each water-dependent generating plants is processed to adjust water-dependent electricity generation parameterization in a production cost model, that represents 2010-level power system operations with hourly energy demand of 2010. The resulting benchmark includes a risk distribution of several grid performance metrics (unserved energy, production cost, carbon emission) as a function of inter-annual variability in regional water availability and predictability using large scale climate oscillations. In the second part of the presentation, we describe an approach to map historical heat waves onto this benchmark grid performance using a building energy demand model. The impact of the heat waves, combined with the impact of droughts, is explored at multiple scales to understand the compounding effects. Vulnerabilities of the power generation and transmission systems are highlighted to guide future adaptation.

Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong;

Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2010-05-01

The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important source of economic income for Botswana. A second hydrological model simulating flow through the wetlands is used to study the impact of catchment runoff changes on the hydrology and ecology of the wetlands. The final goal of the project is to demonstrate the relation between economic benefits of water abstractions in the upstream and downstream environmental impact. Furthermore the results will provide a basis for defining adequate compensations for upstream stakeholders who forego benefits of agricultural intensification to ensure the conservation of downstream ecosystem services.

Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.

2013-12-01

Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.

Origin of discrepancies between crater size-frequency distributions of coeval lunar geologic units via target property contrasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bogert, C. H.; Hiesinger, H.; Dundas, C. M.; Krüger, T.; McEwen, A. S.; Zanetti, M.; Robinson, M. S.

2017-12-01

Recent work on dating Copernican-aged craters, using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Camera data, re-encountered a curious discrepancy in crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements that was observed, but not understood, during the Apollo era. For example, at Tycho, Copernicus, and Aristarchus craters, CSFDs of impact melt deposits give significantly younger relative and absolute model ages (AMAs) than impact ejecta blankets, although these two units formed during one impact event, and would ideally yield coeval ages at the resolution of the CSFD technique. We investigated the effects of contrasting target properties on CSFDs and their resultant relative and absolute model ages for coeval lunar impact melt and ejecta units. We counted craters with diameters through the transition from strength- to gravity-scaling on two large impact melt deposits at Tycho and King craters, and we used pi-group scaling calculations to model the effects of differing target properties on final crater diameters for five different theoretical lunar targets. The new CSFD for the large King Crater melt pond bridges the gap between the discrepant CSFDs within a single geologic unit. Thus, the observed trends in the impact melt CSFDs support the occurrence of target property effects, rather than self-secondary and/or field secondary contamination. The CSFDs generated from the pi-group scaling calculations show that targets with higher density and effective strength yield smaller crater diameters than weaker targets, such that the relative ages of the former are lower relative to the latter. Consequently, coeval impact melt and ejecta units will have discrepant apparent ages. Target property differences also affect the resulting slope of the CSFD, with stronger targets exhibiting shallower slopes, so that the final crater diameters may differ more greatly at smaller diameters. Besides their application to age dating, the CSFDs may provide additional information about the characteristics of the target. For example, the transition diameter from strength- to gravity-scaling could provide a tool for investigating the relative strengths of different geologic units. The magnitude of the offset between the impact melt and ejecta isochrons may also provide information about the relative target properties and/or exposure/degradation ages of the two units. Robotic or human sampling of coeval units on the Moon could provide a direct test of the importance and magnitude of target property effects on CSFDs.

Origin of discrepancies between crater size-frequency distributions of coeval lunar geologic units via target property contrasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Hiesinger, Harald; Dundas, Colin M.; Kruger, T.; McEwen, Alfred S.; Zanetti, Michael; Robinson, Mark S.

2017-01-01

Recent work on dating Copernican-aged craters, using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Camera data, re-encountered a curious discrepancy in crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements that was observed, but not understood, during the Apollo era. For example, at Tycho, Copernicus, and Aristarchus craters, CSFDs of impact melt deposits give significantly younger relative and absolute model ages (AMAs) than impact ejecta blankets, although these two units formed during one impact event, and would ideally yield coeval ages at the resolution of the CSFD technique. We investigated the effects of contrasting target properties on CSFDs and their resultant relative and absolute model ages for coeval lunar impact melt and ejecta units. We counted craters with diameters through the transition from strength- to gravity-scaling on two large impact melt deposits at Tycho and King craters, and we used pi-group scaling calculations to model the effects of differing target properties on final crater diameters for five different theoretical lunar targets. The new CSFD for the large King Crater melt pond bridges the gap between the discrepant CSFDs within a single geologic unit. Thus, the observed trends in the impact melt CSFDs support the occurrence of target property effects, rather than self-secondary and/or field secondary contamination. The CSFDs generated from the pi-group scaling calculations show that targets with higher density and effective strength yield smaller crater diameters than weaker targets, such that the relative ages of the former are lower relative to the latter. Consequently, coeval impact melt and ejecta units will have discrepant apparent ages. Target property differences also affect the resulting slope of the CSFD, with stronger targets exhibiting shallower slopes, so that the final crater diameters may differ more greatly at smaller diameters. Besides their application to age dating, the CSFDs may provide additional information about the characteristics of the target. For example, the transition diameter from strength- to gravity-scaling could provide a tool for investigating the relative strengths of different geologic units. The magnitude of the offset between the impact melt and ejecta isochrons may also provide information about the relative target properties and/or exposure/degradation ages of the two units. Robotic or human sampling of coeval units on the Moon could provide a direct test of the importance and magnitude of target property effects on CSFDs.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Prinn, R. G.

2010-02-01

Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1 °C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1 °C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Prinn, R. G.

2009-09-01

Meeting future world energy needs while addressing climate change requires large-scale deployment of low or zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission technologies such as wind energy. The widespread availability of wind power has fueled legitimate interest in this renewable energy source as one of the needed technologies. For very large-scale utilization of this resource, there are however potential environmental impacts, and also problems arising from its inherent intermittency, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To explore some of these issues, we use a three-dimensional climate model to simulate the potential climate effects associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast areas of land or coastal ocean. Using wind turbines to meet 10% or more of global energy demand in 2100, could cause surface warming exceeding 1°C over land installations. In contrast, surface cooling exceeding 1°C is computed over ocean installations, but the validity of simulating the impacts of wind turbines by simply increasing the ocean surface drag needs further study. Significant warming or cooling remote from both the land and ocean installations, and alterations of the global distributions of rainfall and clouds also occur. These results are influenced by the competing effects of increases in roughness and decreases in wind speed on near-surface turbulent heat fluxes, the differing nature of land and ocean surface friction, and the dimensions of the installations parallel and perpendicular to the prevailing winds. These results are also dependent on the accuracy of the model used, and the realism of the methods applied to simulate wind turbines. Additional theory and new field observations will be required for their ultimate validation. Intermittency of wind power on daily, monthly and longer time scales as computed in these simulations and inferred from meteorological observations, poses a demand for one or more options to ensure reliability, including backup generation capacity, very long distance power transmission lines, and onsite energy storage, each with specific economic and/or technological challenges.

Hydroclimatic Extremes and Cholera Dynamics in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2012-12-01

Cholera, an acute water-borne diarrheal illness, has reemerged as a significant health threat across much of the developing world. Despite major advances in the ecological and the microbiological understanding of the causative agent, V. cholerae, the role of the underlying climatic and environmental processes in propagating transmission is not adequately understood. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - on the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia, the native homeland of cholera. Increasing water scarcity and abundance, and coastal sea-level rise, influenced by changing climate patterns and large-scale climatic phenomena, is likely to adversely impact cholera transmission in South Asia. We focus on understanding how associated changes in macro-scale conditions in this region will impact micro-scale processes related to cholera in coming decades. We use the PRECIS Regional Climate Model over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin region to simulate detailed high resolution projections of climate patterns for the 21st century. Precipitation outputs are analyzed for the 1980-2040 period to identify the trends and changes in hydroclimatic extremes and potential impacts on cholera dynamics over the next three decades (2010-2040), in relation to the cholera surveillance operations over the past three decades (1980-2010). We find that an increased number of extreme precipitation events with prolonged dry periods in the Ganges basin region will likely adversely affect dry season cholera outbreaks. Increased monsoon precipitation volumes in the Brahmaputra basin catchments are likely to cause record floods and subsequently trigger large epidemics in downstream areas. Our results provide new insight by identifying the changes in the two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large-scale climatic controls that prevail in the region. A quantitative understanding of the changes in seasonal hydroclimatic controls and underlying dominant processes will form the basis for forecasting future epidemic cholera outbreaks in light of changing climate patterns.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Polar firn air reveals large-scale impact of anthropogenic mercury emissions during the 1970s

PubMed Central

Faïn, Xavier; Ferrari, Christophe P.; Dommergue, Aurélien; Albert, Mary R.; Battle, Mark; Severinghaus, Jeff; Arnaud, Laurent; Barnola, Jean-Marc; Cairns, Warren; Barbante, Carlo; Boutron, Claude

2009-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is an extremely toxic pollutant, and its biogeochemical cycle has been perturbed by anthropogenic emissions during recent centuries. In the atmosphere, gaseous elemental mercury (GEM; Hg°) is the predominant form of mercury (up to 95%). Here we report the evolution of atmospheric levels of GEM in mid- to high-northern latitudes inferred from the interstitial air of firn (perennial snowpack) at Summit, Greenland. GEM concentrations increased rapidly after World War II from ≈1.5 ng m−3 reaching a maximum of ≈3 ng m−3 around 1970 and decreased until stabilizing at ≈1.7 ng m−3 around 1995. This reconstruction reproduces real-time measurements available from the Arctic since 1995 and exhibits the same general trend observed in Europe since 1990. Anthropogenic emissions caused a two-fold rise in boreal atmospheric GEM concentrations before the 1970s, which likely contributed to higher deposition of mercury in both industrialized and remotes areas. Once deposited, this toxin becomes available for methylation and, subsequently, the contamination of ecosystems. Implementation of air pollution regulations, however, enabled a large-scale decline in atmospheric mercury levels during the 1980s. The results shown here suggest that potential increases in emissions in the coming decades could have a similar large-scale impact on atmospheric Hg levels. PMID:19805267

Schiaparelli Hemisphere

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-06-03

This mosaic is composed of about 100 red- and violet- filter Viking Orbiter images, digitally mosaiced in an orthographic projection at a scale of 1 km/pixel. The images were acquired in 1980 during mid northern summer on Mars (Ls = 89 degrees). The center of the image is near the impact crater Schiaparelli (latitude -3 degrees, longitude 343 degrees). The limits of this mosaic are approximately latitude -60 to 60 degrees and longitude 280 to 30 degrees. The color variations have been enhanced by a factor of two, and the large-scale brightness variations (mostly due to sun-angle variations) have been normalized by large-scale filtering. The large circular area with a bright yellow color (in this rendition) is known as Arabia. The boundary between the ancient, heavily-cratered southern highlands and the younger northern plains occurs far to the north (latitude 40 degrees) on this side of the planet, just north of Arabia. The dark streaks with bright margins emanating from craters in the Oxia Palus region (to the left of Arabia) are caused by erosion and/or deposition by the wind. The dark blue area on the far right, called Syrtis Major Planum, is a low-relief volcanic shield of probable basaltic composition. Bright white areas to the south, including the Hellas impact basin at the lower right, are covered by carbon dioxide frost. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA00004

On the feasibility of using satellite gravity observations for detecting large-scale solid mass transfer events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peidou, Athina C.; Fotopoulos, Georgia; Pagiatakis, Spiros

2017-10-01

The main focus of this paper is to assess the feasibility of utilizing dedicated satellite gravity missions in order to detect large-scale solid mass transfer events (e.g. landslides). Specifically, a sensitivity analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity field solutions in conjunction with simulated case studies is employed to predict gravity changes due to past subaerial and submarine mass transfer events, namely the Agulhas slump in southeastern Africa and the Heart Mountain Landslide in northwestern Wyoming. The detectability of these events is evaluated by taking into account the expected noise level in the GRACE gravity field solutions and simulating their impact on the gravity field through forward modelling of the mass transfer. The spectral content of the estimated gravity changes induced by a simulated large-scale landslide event is estimated for the known spatial resolution of the GRACE observations using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The results indicate that both the Agulhas slump and the Heart Mountain Landslide could have been detected by GRACE, resulting in {\\vert }0.4{\\vert } and {\\vert }0.18{\\vert } mGal change on GRACE solutions, respectively. The suggested methodology is further extended to the case studies of the submarine landslide in Tohoku, Japan, and the Grand Banks landslide in Newfoundland, Canada. The detectability of these events using GRACE solutions is assessed through their impact on the gravity field.

Patterns and multi-scale drivers of phytoplankton species richness in temperate peri-urban lakes.

PubMed

Catherine, Arnaud; Selma, Maloufi; Mouillot, David; Troussellier, Marc; Bernard, Cécile

2016-07-15

Local species richness (SR) is a key characteristic affecting ecosystem functioning. Yet, the mechanisms regulating phytoplankton diversity in freshwater ecosystems are not fully understood, especially in peri-urban environments where anthropogenic pressures strongly impact the quality of aquatic ecosystems. To address this issue, we sampled the phytoplankton communities of 50 lakes in the Paris area (France) characterized by a large gradient of physico-chemical and catchment-scale characteristics. We used large phytoplankton datasets to describe phytoplankton diversity patterns and applied a machine-learning algorithm to test the degree to which species richness patterns are potentially controlled by environmental factors. Selected environmental factors were studied at two scales: the lake-scale (e.g. nutrients concentrations, water temperature, lake depth) and the catchment-scale (e.g. catchment, landscape and climate variables). Then, we used a variance partitioning approach to evaluate the interaction between lake-scale and catchment-scale variables in explaining local species richness. Finally, we analysed the residuals of predictive models to identify potential vectors of improvement of phytoplankton species richness predictive models. Lake-scale and catchment-scale drivers provided similar predictive accuracy of local species richness (R(2)=0.458 and 0.424, respectively). Both models suggested that seasonal temperature variations and nutrient supply strongly modulate local species richness. Integrating lake- and catchment-scale predictors in a single predictive model did not provide increased predictive accuracy; therefore suggesting that the catchment-scale model probably explains observed species richness variations through the impact of catchment-scale variables on in-lake water quality characteristics. Models based on catchment characteristics, which include simple and easy to obtain variables, provide a meaningful way of predicting phytoplankton species richness in temperate lakes. This approach may prove useful and cost-effective for the management and conservation of aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contrasting styles of large-scale displacement of unconsolidated sand: examples from the early Jurassic Navajo Sandstone on the Colorado Plateau, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryant, Gerald

2015-04-01

Large-scale soft-sediment deformation features in the Navajo Sandstone have been a topic of interest for nearly 40 years, ever since they were first explored as a criterion for discriminating between marine and continental processes in the depositional environment. For much of this time, evidence for large-scale sediment displacements was commonly attributed to processes of mass wasting. That is, gravity-driven movements of surficial sand. These slope failures were attributed to the inherent susceptibility of dune sand responding to environmental triggers such as earthquakes, floods, impacts, and the differential loading associated with dune topography. During the last decade, a new wave of research is focusing on the event significance of deformation features in more detail, revealing a broad diversity of large-scale deformation morphologies. This research has led to a better appreciation of subsurface dynamics in the early Jurassic deformation events recorded in the Navajo Sandstone, including the important role of intrastratal sediment flow. This report documents two illustrative examples of large-scale sediment displacements represented in extensive outcrops of the Navajo Sandstone along the Utah/Arizona border. Architectural relationships in these outcrops provide definitive constraints that enable the recognition of a large-scale sediment outflow, at one location, and an equally large-scale subsurface flow at the other. At both sites, evidence for associated processes of liquefaction appear at depths of at least 40 m below the original depositional surface, which is nearly an order of magnitude greater than has commonly been reported from modern settings. The surficial, mass flow feature displays attributes that are consistent with much smaller-scale sediment eruptions (sand volcanoes) that are often documented from modern earthquake zones, including the development of hydraulic pressure from localized, subsurface liquefaction and the subsequent escape of fluidized sand toward the unconfined conditions of the surface. The origin of the forces that produced the lateral, subsurface movement of a large body of sand at the other site is not readily apparent. The various constraints on modeling the generation of the lateral force required to produce the observed displacement are considered here, along with photodocumentation of key outcrop relationships.

A Microscale View of Mixing and Overturning Across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naveira Garabato, A.; Polzin, K. L.; Ferrari, R. M.; Zika, J. D.; Forryan, A.

2014-12-01

The meridional overturning circulation and stratication of the global ocean are shaped critically by processes in the Southern Ocean. The zonally unblocked nature of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) confers the region with a set of special dynamics that ultimately results in the focussing therein of large vertical exchanges between layers spanning the global ocean pycnocline. These vertical exchanges are thought to be mediated by oceanic turbulent motions (associated with mesoscale eddies and small-scale turbulence), yet the vastness of the Southern Ocean and the sparse and intermittent nature of turbulent processes make their relative roles and large-scale impacts extremely difficult to assess.Here, we address the problem from a new angle, and use measurements of the centimetre-scale signatures of mesoscale eddies and small-scale turbulence obtained during the DIMES experiment to determine the contributions of those processes to sustaining large-scale meridional overturning across the ACC. We find that mesoscale eddies and small-scale turbulence play complementary roles in forcing a meridional circulation of O(1 mm / s) across the Southern Ocean, and that their roles are underpinned by distinct and abrupt variations in the rates at which they mix water parcels. The implications for our understanding of the Southern Ocean circulation's sensitivity to climatic change will be discussed.

The Use of CASES-97 Observations to Assess and Parameterize the Impact of Land-Surface Heterogeneity on Area-Average Surface Heat Fluxes for Large-Scale Coupled Atmosphere-Hydrology Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Fei; Yates, David; LeMone, Margaret

2001-01-01

To understand the effects of land-surface heterogeneity and the interactions between the land-surface and the planetary boundary layer at different scales, we develop a multiscale data set. This data set, based on the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES97) observations, includes atmospheric, surface, and sub-surface observations obtained from a dense observation network covering a large region on the order of 100 km. We use this data set to drive three land-surface models (LSMs) to generate multi-scale (with three resolutions of 1, 5, and 10 kilometers) gridded surface heat flux maps for the CASES area. Upon validating these flux maps with measurements from surface station and aircraft, we utilize them to investigate several approaches for estimating the area-integrated surface heat flux for the CASES97 domain of 71x74 square kilometers, which is crucial for land surface model development/validation and area water and energy budget studies. This research is aimed at understanding the relative contribution of random turbulence versus organized mesoscale circulations to the area-integrated surface flux at the scale of 100 kilometers, and identifying the most important effective parameters for characterizing the subgrid-scale variability for large-scale atmosphere-hydrology models.

Impact Constraints on the Age and Origin of the Crustal Dichotomy on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, H. V.

2004-01-01

MOLA data have revealed a large population of "Quasi-Circular Depressions" (QCDs) with little or no visible expression in image data. These likely buried impact basins have important implications for the age of the lowland crust, how that compares with original highland crust, and when and how the crustal dichotomy may have formed. The buried lowlands are of Early Noachian age, likely slightly younger than the buried highlands but older than the exposed (visible) highland surface. A depopulation of large visible basins at diameters 800 to 1300 km suggests some global scale event early in martian history, maybe related to the formation of the lowlands andor the development of Tharsis. A suggested early disappearance of the global magnetic field can be placed within a temporal sequence of formation of the very largest impact basins. The global field appears to have disappeared at about the time the lowlands formed. It seems likely the topographic crustal dichotomy was produced very early in martian history by processes which operated very quickly. This and the preservation of large relic impact basins in the north- em hemisphere, which themselves can account for the lowland topography, suggest that large impacts played the major role in the origin Mars fundamental crustal feature.

Impact Constraints on the Age and Origin of the Crustal Dichotomy on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, Herbert V.

2004-01-01

MOLA data have revealed a large population of 'Quasi-Circular Depressions' (QCDs) with little or no visible expression in image data. These likely buried impact basins have important implications for the age of the lowland crust, how that compares with original highland crust, and when and how the crustal dichotomy may have formed. The buried lowlands are of Early Noachian age, likely slightly younger than the buried highlands but older than the exposed (visible) highland surface. A depopulation of large visible basins at diameters 800 to 1300 km suggests some global scale event early in martian history, maybe related to the formation of the lowlands and/or the development of Tharsis. A suggested early disappearance of the global magnetic field can be placed within a temporal sequence of formation of the very largest impact basins. The global field appears to have disappeared at about the time the lowlands formed. It seems likely the topographic crustal dichotomy was produced very early in martian history by processes which operated very quickly. This and the preservation of large relic impact basins in the northern hemisphere, which themselves can account for the lowland topography, suggest that large impacts played the major role in the origin Mars fundamental crustal feature.

Kingsbury Bay-Grassy Point habitat restoration project: A Health Impact Assessment-oral presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Undertaking large-scale aquatic habitat restoration projects in prominent waterfront locations, such as city parks, provides an opportunity to both improve ecological integrity and enhance community well-being. However, to consider both opportunities simultaneously, a community-b...

Footprint of recycled water subsidies downwind of Lake Michigan

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Continental evaporation is a significant and dynamic flux within the atmospheric water budget, but few methods provide robust observational constraints on the large-scale hydroclimatological and hydroecological impacts of this ‘recycled-water’ flux. We demonstrate a geospatial analysis that provides...

Educational Implications of Microelectronics and Microprocessors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, N. D. C., Ed.

This conference report explores microelectronic technology, its effect on educational methods and objectives, and its implications for educator responsibilities. Two main areas were considered: the significance of the likely impact of the large scale introduction of microprocessors and microelectronics on commercial and industrial processes, the…

Optical Disk Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbott, George L.; And Others

1987-01-01

This special feature focuses on recent developments in optical disk technology. Nine articles discuss current trends, large scale image processing, data structures for optical disks, the use of computer simulators to create optical disks, videodisk use in training, interactive audio video systems, impacts on federal information policy, and…

Evaluating Green/Gray Infrastructure for CSO/Stormwater Control

EPA Science Inventory

The NRMRL is conducting this project to evaluate the water quality and quantity benefits of a large-scale application of green infrastructure (low-impact development/best management practices) retrofits in an entire subcatchment. It will document ORD's effort to demonstrate the e...

Tough and deformable glasses with bioinspired cross-ply architectures.

PubMed

Yin, Zhen; Dastjerdi, Ahmad; Barthelat, Francois

2018-05-15

Glasses are optically transparent, hard materials that have been in sustained demand and usage in architectural windows, optical devices, electronics and solar panels. Despite their outstanding optical qualities and durability, their brittleness and low resistance to impact still limits wider applications. Here we present new laminated glass designs that contain toughening cross-ply architectures inspired from fish scales and arthropod cuticles. This seemingly minor enrichment completely transforms the way laminated glass deforms and fractures, and it turns a traditionally brittle material into a stretchy and tough material with little impact on surface hardness and optical quality. Large ply rotation propagates over large volumes, and localization is delayed in tension, even if a strain softening interlayer is used, in a remarkable mechanism which is generated by the kinematics of the plies and geometrical hardening. Compared to traditional laminated glass which degrades significantly in performance when damaged, our cross-ply architecture glass is damage-tolerant and 50 times tougher in energy terms. Despite the outstanding optical qualities and durability of glass, its brittleness and low resistance to impact still limits its wider application. Here we present new laminated glass designs that contain toughening cross-ply architectures inspired from fish scales and arthropod cuticles. Enriching laminated designs with crossplies completely transforms the material deforms and fractures, and turns a traditionally brittle material into a stretchy and tough material - with little impact on surface hardness and optical quality. Large ply rotation propagates over large volumes and localization is delayed in tension because of a remarkable and unexpected geometrical hardening effect. Compared to traditional laminated glass which degrades significantly in performance when damaged, our cross-ply architecture glass is damage-tolerant and it is 50 times tougher in energy terms. Our glass-based, transparent material is highly innovative and it is the first of its kind. We believe it will have impact in broad range of applications in construction, coatings, chemical engineering, electronics, photovoltaics. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Impact of In-situ Chemical Oxidation on Contaminant Mass Discharge: Linking Source-Zone and Plume-Scale Characterizations of Remediation Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brusseau, M. L.; Carroll, K. C.; Baker, J. B.; Allen, T.; DiGuiseppi, W.; Hatton, J.; Morrison, C.; Russo, A. E.; Berkompas, J. L.

2011-12-01

A large-scale permanganate-based in-situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) effort has been conducted over the past ten years at a federal Superfund site in Tucson, AZ, for which trichloroethene (TCE) is the primary contaminant of concern. Remediation performance was assessed by examining the impact of treatment on contaminant mass discharge, an approach that has been used for only a very few prior ISCO projects. Contaminant mass discharge tests were conducted before and after permanganate injection to measure the impact at the source-zone scale. The results indicate that ISCO caused a significant reduction in mass discharge (approximately 75%). The standard approach of characterizing discharge at the source-zone scale was supplemented with additional characterization at the plume scale, which was evaluated by examining the change in contaminant mass discharge associated with the pump-and-treat system. The integrated contaminant mass discharge decreased by approximately 70%, consistent with the source-zone-scale measurements. The integrated mass discharge rebounded from 0.1 to 0.2 Kg/d within one year after cessation of permanganate injections, after which it has been stable for several years. Collection of the integrated contaminant mass discharge data throughout the ISCO treatment period provided a high-resolution, real-time analysis of the site-wide impact of ISCO, thereby linking source-zone remediation to impacts on overall risk. The results indicate that ISCO was successful in reducing contaminant mass discharge at this site, which comprises a highly heterogeneous subsurface environment. Analysis of TCE sediment concentration data for core material collected before and after ISCO supports the hypothesis that the remaining mass discharge is associated in part with poorly-accessible contaminant mass residing within lower-permeability zones.

Impact of in situ chemical oxidation on contaminant mass discharge: linking source-zone and plume-scale characterizations of remediation performance.

PubMed

Brusseau, M L; Carroll, K C; Allen, T; Baker, J; Diguiseppi, W; Hatton, J; Morrison, C; Russo, A; Berkompas, J

2011-06-15

A large-scale permanganate-based in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) effort has been conducted over the past ten years at a federal Superfund site in Tucson, AZ, for which trichloroethene (TCE) is the primary contaminant of concern. Remediation performance was assessed by examining the impact of treatment on contaminant mass discharge, an approach that has been used for only a very few prior ISCO projects. Contaminant mass discharge tests were conducted before and after permanganate injection to measure the impact at the source-zone scale. The results indicate that ISCO caused a significant reduction in mass discharge (approximately 75%). The standard approach of characterizing discharge at the source-zone scale was supplemented with additional characterization at the plume scale, which was evaluated by examining the change in contaminant mass discharge associated with the pump-and-treat system. The integrated contaminant mass discharge decreased by approximately 70%, consistent with the source-zone-scale measurements. The integrated mass discharge rebounded from 0.1 to 0.2 kg/d within one year after cessation of permanganate injections, after which it has been stable for several years. Collection of the integrated contaminant mass discharge data throughout the ISCO treatment period provided a high-resolution, real-time analysis of the site-wide impact of ISCO, thereby linking source-zone remediation to impacts on overall risk. The results indicate that ISCO was successful in reducing contaminant mass discharge at this site, which comprises a highly heterogeneous subsurface environment. Analysis of TCE sediment concentration data for core material collected before and after ISCO supports the hypothesis that the remaining mass discharge is associated in part with poorly accessible contaminant mass residing within lower-permeability zones.

Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

2015-01-01

Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The Mekong's future flows under multiple driving factors: How future climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation expansion drive hydrological changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoang, L. P.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Lauri, H.; Kummu, M.; Koponen, J.; Supit, I.; Leemans, R.; Kabat, P.; Ludwig, F.

2016-12-01

The Mekong River's flows and water resources are in many ways essential for sustaining economic growths, flood security of about 70 million people and biodiversity in one of the world's most ecologically productive wetland systems. The river's hydrological cycle, however, are increasingly perturbed by climate change, large-scale hydropower developments and rapid irrigated land expansions. This study presents an integrated impact assessment to characterize and quantify future hydrological changes induced by these driving factors, both separately and combined. We have integrated a crop simulation module and a hydropower dam module into a distributed hydrological model (VMod) and simulated the Mekong's hydrology under multiple climate change and development scenarios. Our results show that the Mekong's hydrological regime will experience substantial changes caused by the considered factors. Magnitude-wise, hydropower dam developments exhibit the largest impacts on river flows, with projected higher flows (up to +35%) during the dry season and lower flows (up to -44%) during the wet season. Annual flow changes caused by the dams, however, are relatively marginal. In contrast to this, climate change is projected to increase the Mekong's annual flows (up to +16%) while irrigated land expansions result in annual flow reductions (-1% to -3%). Combining the impacts of these three drivers, we found that river flow changes, especially those at the monthly scale, largely differ from changes under the individual driving factors. This is explained by large differences in impacts' magnitudes and contrasting impacts' directions for the individual drivers. We argue that the Mekong's future flows are likely driven by multiple factors and thus advocate for integrated assessment approaches and tools that support proper considerations of these factors and their interplays.

Analysis of near-surface relative humidity in a wind turbine array boundary layer using an instrumented unmanned aerial system and large-eddy simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adkins, Kevin; Elfajri, Oumnia; Sescu, Adrian

2016-11-01

Simulation and modeling have shown that wind farms have an impact on the near-surface atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) as turbulent wakes generated by the turbines enhance vertical mixing. These changes alter downstream atmospheric properties. With a large portion of wind farms hosted within an agricultural context, changes to the environment can potentially have secondary impacts such as to the productivity of crops. With the exception of a few observational data sets that focus on the impact to near-surface temperature, little to no observational evidence exists. These few studies also lack high spatial resolution due to their use of a limited number of meteorological towers or remote sensing techniques. This study utilizes an instrumented small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) to gather in-situ field measurements from two Midwest wind farms, focusing on the impact that large utility-scale wind turbines have on relative humidity. Results are also compared to numerical experiments conducted using large eddy simulation (LES). Wind turbines are found to differentially alter the relative humidity in the downstream, spanwise and vertical directions under a variety of atmospheric stability conditions.

High Performance Computing for Modeling Wind Farms and Their Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavriplis, D.; Naughton, J. W.; Stoellinger, M. K.

2016-12-01

As energy generated by wind penetrates further into our electrical system, modeling of power production, power distribution, and the economic impact of wind-generated electricity is growing in importance. The models used for this work can range in fidelity from simple codes that run on a single computer to those that require high performance computing capabilities. Over the past several years, high fidelity models have been developed and deployed on the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center's Yellowstone machine. One of the primary modeling efforts focuses on developing the capability to compute the behavior of a wind farm in complex terrain under realistic atmospheric conditions. Fully modeling this system requires the simulation of continental flows to modeling the flow over a wind turbine blade, including down to the blade boundary level, fully 10 orders of magnitude in scale. To accomplish this, the simulations are broken up by scale, with information from the larger scales being passed to the lower scale models. In the code being developed, four scale levels are included: the continental weather scale, the local atmospheric flow in complex terrain, the wind plant scale, and the turbine scale. The current state of the models in the latter three scales will be discussed. These simulations are based on a high-order accurate dynamic overset and adaptive mesh approach, which runs at large scale on the NWSC Yellowstone machine. A second effort on modeling the economic impact of new wind development as well as improvement in wind plant performance and enhancements to the transmission infrastructure will also be discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.

As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison ofmore » the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. Lastly, these large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.« less

Scalable Analysis Methods and In Situ Infrastructure for Extreme Scale Knowledge Discovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bethel, Wes

2016-07-24

The primary challenge motivating this team’s work is the widening gap between the ability to compute information and to store it for subsequent analysis. This gap adversely impacts science code teams, who are able to perform analysis only on a small fraction of the data they compute, resulting in the very real likelihood of lost or missed science, when results are computed but not analyzed. Our approach is to perform as much analysis or visualization processing on data while it is still resident in memory, an approach that is known as in situ processing. The idea in situ processing wasmore » not new at the time of the start of this effort in 2014, but efforts in that space were largely ad hoc, and there was no concerted effort within the research community that aimed to foster production-quality software tools suitable for use by DOE science projects. In large, our objective was produce and enable use of production-quality in situ methods and infrastructure, at scale, on DOE HPC facilities, though we expected to have impact beyond DOE due to the widespread nature of the challenges, which affect virtually all large-scale computational science efforts. To achieve that objective, we assembled a unique team of researchers consisting of representatives from DOE national laboratories, academia, and industry, and engaged in software technology R&D, as well as engaged in close partnerships with DOE science code teams, to produce software technologies that were shown to run effectively at scale on DOE HPC platforms.« less

Online estimation of the wavefront outer scale profile from adaptive optics telemetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guesalaga, A.; Neichel, B.; Correia, C. M.; Butterley, T.; Osborn, J.; Masciadri, E.; Fusco, T.; Sauvage, J.-F.

2017-02-01

We describe an online method to estimate the wavefront outer scale profile, L0(h), for very large and future extremely large telescopes. The stratified information on this parameter impacts the estimation of the main turbulence parameters [turbulence strength, Cn2(h); Fried's parameter, r0; isoplanatic angle, θ0; and coherence time, τ0) and determines the performance of wide-field adaptive optics (AO) systems. This technique estimates L0(h) using data from the AO loop available at the facility instruments by constructing the cross-correlation functions of the slopes between two or more wavefront sensors, which are later fitted to a linear combination of the simulated theoretical layers having different altitudes and outer scale values. We analyse some limitations found in the estimation process: (I) its insensitivity to large values of L0(h) as the telescope becomes blind to outer scales larger than its diameter; (II) the maximum number of observable layers given the limited number of independent inputs that the cross-correlation functions provide and (III) the minimum length of data required for a satisfactory convergence of the turbulence parameters without breaking the assumption of statistical stationarity of the turbulence. The method is applied to the Gemini South multiconjugate AO system that comprises five wavefront sensors and two deformable mirrors. Statistics of L0(h) at Cerro Pachón from data acquired during 3 yr of campaigns show interesting resemblance to other independent results in the literature. A final analysis suggests that the impact of error sources will be substantially reduced in instruments of the next generation of giant telescopes.

The impact of galaxy formation on satellite kinematics and redshift-space distortions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsi, Álvaro A.; Angulo, Raúl E.

2018-04-01

Galaxy surveys aim to map the large-scale structure of the Universe and use redshift-space distortions to constrain deviations from general relativity and probe the existence of massive neutrinos. However, the amount of information that can be extracted is limited by the accuracy of theoretical models used to analyse the data. Here, by using the L-Galaxies semi-analytical model run over the Millennium-XXL N-body simulation, we assess the impact of galaxy formation on satellite kinematics and the theoretical modelling of redshift-space distortions. We show that different galaxy selection criteria lead to noticeable differences in the radial distributions and velocity structure of satellite galaxies. Specifically, whereas samples of stellar mass selected galaxies feature satellites that roughly follow the dark matter, emission line satellite galaxies are located preferentially in the outskirts of haloes and display net infall velocities. We demonstrate that capturing these differences is crucial for modelling the multipoles of the correlation function in redshift space, even on large scales. In particular, we show how modelling small-scale velocities with a single Gaussian distribution leads to a poor description of the measured clustering. In contrast, we propose a parametrization that is flexible enough to model the satellite kinematics and that leads to an accurate description of the correlation function down to sub-Mpc scales. We anticipate that our model will be a necessary ingredient in improved theoretical descriptions of redshift-space distortions, which together could result in significantly tighter cosmological constraints and a more optimal exploitation of future large data sets.

Big Science vs. Little Science: How Scientific Impact Scales with Funding.

PubMed

Fortin, Jean-Michel; Currie, David J

2013-01-01

is it more effective to give large grants to a few elite researchers, or small grants to many researchers? Large grants would be more effective only if scientific impact increases as an accelerating function of grant size. Here, we examine the scientific impact of individual university-based researchers in three disciplines funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). We considered four indices of scientific impact: numbers of articles published, numbers of citations to those articles, the most cited article, and the number of highly cited articles, each measured over a four-year period. We related these to the amount of NSERC funding received. Impact is positively, but only weakly, related to funding. Researchers who received additional funds from a second federal granting council, the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, were not more productive than those who received only NSERC funding. Impact was generally a decelerating function of funding. Impact per dollar was therefore lower for large grant-holders. This is inconsistent with the hypothesis that larger grants lead to larger discoveries. Further, the impact of researchers who received increases in funding did not predictably increase. We conclude that scientific impact (as reflected by publications) is only weakly limited by funding. We suggest that funding strategies that target diversity, rather than "excellence", are likely to prove to be more productive.

Global simulations of protoplanetary disks with net magnetic flux. I. Non-ideal MHD case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Béthune, William; Lesur, Geoffroy; Ferreira, Jonathan

2017-04-01

Context. The planet-forming region of protoplanetary disks is cold, dense, and therefore weakly ionized. For this reason, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence is thought to be mostly absent, and another mechanism has to be found to explain gas accretion. It has been proposed that magnetized winds, launched from the ionized disk surface, could drive accretion in the presence of a large-scale magnetic field. Aims: The efficiency and the impact of these surface winds on the disk structure is still highly uncertain. We present the first global simulations of a weakly ionized disk that exhibits large-scale magnetized winds. We also study the impact of self-organization, which was previously demonstrated only in non-stratified models. Methods: We perform numerical simulations of stratified disks with the PLUTO code. We compute the ionization fraction dynamically, and account for all three non-ideal MHD effects: ohmic and ambipolar diffusions, and the Hall drift. Simplified heating and cooling due to non-thermal radiation is also taken into account in the disk atmosphere. Results: We find that disks can be accreting or not, depending on the configuration of the large-scale magnetic field. Magnetothermal winds, driven both by magnetic acceleration and heating of the atmosphere, are obtained in the accreting case. In some cases, these winds are asymmetric, ejecting predominantly on one side of the disk. The wind mass loss rate depends primarily on the average ratio of magnetic to thermal pressure in the disk midplane. The non-accreting case is characterized by a meridional circulation, with accretion layers at the disk surface and decretion in the midplane. Finally, we observe self-organization, resulting in axisymmetric rings of density and associated pressure "bumps". The underlying mechanism and its impact on observable structures are discussed.

Sedimentary processes of the Bagnold Dunes: Implications for the eolian rock record of Mars

PubMed Central

Lapotre, M. G. A.; Lewis, K. W.; Day, M.; Stein, N.; Rubin, D. M.; Sullivan, R.; Banham, S.; Lamb, M. P.; Bridges, N. T.; Gupta, S.; Fischer, W. W.

2017-01-01

Abstract The Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity visited two active wind‐blown sand dunes within Gale crater, Mars, which provided the first ground‐based opportunity to compare Martian and terrestrial eolian dune sedimentary processes and study a modern analog for the Martian eolian rock record. Orbital and rover images of these dunes reveal terrestrial‐like and uniquely Martian processes. The presence of grainfall, grainflow, and impact ripples resembled terrestrial dunes. Impact ripples were present on all dune slopes and had a size and shape similar to their terrestrial counterpart. Grainfall and grainflow occurred on dune and large‐ripple lee slopes. Lee slopes were ~29° where grainflows were present and ~33° where grainfall was present. These slopes are interpreted as the dynamic and static angles of repose, respectively. Grain size measured on an undisturbed impact ripple ranges between 50 μm and 350 μm with an intermediate axis mean size of 113 μm (median: 103 μm). Dissimilar to dune eolian processes on Earth, large, meter‐scale ripples were present on all dune slopes. Large ripples had nearly symmetric to strongly asymmetric topographic profiles and heights ranging between 12 cm and 28 cm. The composite observations of the modern sedimentary processes highlight that the Martian eolian rock record is likely different from its terrestrial counterpart because of the large ripples, which are expected to engender a unique scale of cross stratification. More broadly, however, in the Bagnold Dune Field as on Earth, dune‐field pattern dynamics and basin‐scale boundary conditions will dictate the style and distribution of sedimentary processes. PMID:29497590

Population-wide mortality in multiple forest types in western North America: onset, extent, and severity of impacts as indicators of climatic influence

Treesearch

J. D. Shaw; J. N. Long; M. T. Thompson; R. J. DeRose

2010-01-01

A complex of drought, insects, and disease is causing widespread mortality in multiple forest types across western North America. These forest types range from dry Pinus-Juniperus woodlands to moist, montane Picea-Abies forests. Although large-scale mortality events are known from the past and considered part of natural cycles, recent events have largely been...

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Leading a change process to improve health service delivery.

PubMed Central

Bahamon, Claire; Dwyer, Joseph; Buxbaum, Ann

2006-01-01

In the fields of health and development, donors channel multiple resources into the design of new practices and technologies, as well as small-scale programmes to test them. But successful practices are rarely scaled up to the level where they beneficially impact large, impoverished populations. An effective process for change is to use the experiences of new practices gained at the programme level for full-scale implementation. To make an impact, new practices need to be applied, and supported by management systems, at many organizational levels. At every level, potential implementers and likely beneficiaries must first recognize some characteristics that would benefit them in the new practices. An effective change process, led by a dedicated internal change agent, comprises several well-defined phases that successively broaden and institutionalize the use of new practices. PMID:16917654

Finite-time and finite-size scalings in the evaluation of large-deviation functions: Numerical approach in continuous time.

PubMed

Guevara Hidalgo, Esteban; Nemoto, Takahiro; Lecomte, Vivien

2017-06-01

Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their study, by means of simulating a large number of copies of the system, which are subjected to selection rules that favor the rare trajectories of interest. Such algorithms are plagued by finite simulation time and finite population size, effects that can render their use delicate. In this paper, we present a numerical approach which uses the finite-time and finite-size scalings of estimators of the large deviation functions associated to the distribution of rare trajectories. The method we propose allows one to extract the infinite-time and infinite-size limit of these estimators, which-as shown on the contact process-provides a significant improvement of the large deviation function estimators compared to the standard one.

Mitigation of Sri Lanka Island Effects in Colombo Sounding Data during DYNAMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciesielski, P. E.; Johnson, R. H.; Yoneyama, K.

2013-12-01

During the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign, upper-air soundings were launched at Colombo, Sri Lanka as part of the enhanced northern sounding array (NSA) of the experiment. The Colombo soundings were affected at low-levels by diurnal heating of this large island and by flow blocking due to elevated terrain to the east of the Colombo site. Because of the large spacing between sounding sites, these small-scale effects are aliased onto the larger scale impacting analyses and atmospheric budgets over the DYNAMO NSA. To mitigate these local island effects on the large-scale budgets, a procedure was designed which uses ECMWF-analyzed fields in the vicinity of Sri Lanka to estimate open-ocean conditions (i.e, as if this island were not present). These 'unperturbed' ECMWF fields at low-levels are then merged with observed Colombo soundings. This procedure effectively mutes the blocking effects and large diurnal cycle observed in the low-level Colombo fields. In westerly flow regimes, adjusted Colombo winds increase the low-level westerlies by 2-3 m/s with a similar increase of the low-level easterlies in easterly flow regimes. In general, over the NSA the impact of the adjusted Colombo winds results in more low-level divergence (convergence), more mid-level subsidence (rising motion) and reduced (increased) rainfall during the westerly (easterly) wind regimes. In comparison to independent TRMM rainfall estimates, both the mean budget-derived rainfall and its temporal correlation are improved by using the adjusted Colombo soundings. In addition, use of the 'unperturbed' fields result in a more realistic moisture budget analyses, both in its diurnal cycle and during the build-up phase of the November MJO when a gradual deepening of apparent drying was observed. Overall, use of the adjusted Colombo soundings appears to have a beneficial impact on the NSA analyses and budgets.

Herbivore Impact on Tundra Plant Community Dynamics Using Long-term Remote Sensing Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Q.; Engstrom, R.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

2014-12-01

Arctic tundra biome is now experiencing dramatic environmental changes accentuated by summer sea-ice decline, permafrost thaw, and shrub expansion. Multi-decadal time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, a spectral metric of vegetation productivity) shows an overall "greening" trend across the Arctic tundra biome. Regional trends in climate plausibly explain large-scale patterns of increasing plant productivity, as diminished summer sea-ice extent warms the adjacent land causing tundra vegetation to respond positively (increased photosynthetic aboveground biomass). However, at more local scales, there is a great deal of spatial variability in NDVI trends that likely reflects differences in hydrology and soil conditions, disturbance history, and use by wildlife and humans. Particularly, habitat use by large herbivores, such as reindeer and caribou, has large impacts on vegetation dynamics at local and regional scales, but the role of herbivores in modulating the response of vegetation to warming climate has received little attention. This study investigates regional tundra plant community dynamics within inhabits of different sizes of wild caribou/reindeer herds across the Arctic using GIMMS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) 3g data product. The Taimyr herd in Russia is one of the largest herds in the world with a population increase from 450,000 in 1975 to about 1 million animals in 2000. The population of the porcupine caribou herd has fluctuated in the past three decades between 100,000 and 180,000. Time-series of the maximum NDVI within the inhabit area of the Taimyr herd has increased about 2% per decade over the past three decades, while within the inhabit area of the Porcupine herd the maximum NDVI has increased about 5% per decade. Our results indicate that the impact of large herbivores can be detected from space and further analyses on seasonal dynamics of vegetation indices and herbivore behavior may provide more understanding of the plant-herbivore interactions within the context of a 'greening' Arctic.

Post-wildfire soil erosion in the Mediterranean: Review and future research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakesby, R. A.

2011-04-01

Wildfires increased dramatically in frequency and extent in the European Mediterranean region from the 1960s, aided by a general warming and drying trend, but driven primarily by socio-economic changes, including rural depopulation, land abandonment and afforestation with flammable species. Published research into post-wildfire hydrology and soil erosion, beginning during the 1980s in Spain, has been followed by studies in other European Mediterranean countries together with Israel and has now attained a sufficiently large critical mass to warrant a major review. Although variations in climate, vegetation, soil, topography and fire severity cause differences in Mediterranean post-wildfire erosion, the long history of human landscape impact up to the present day is responsible for some its distinctive characteristics. This paper highlights these characteristics in reviewing wildfire impacts on hydrology, soil properties and soil erosion by water. The 'mosaic' nature of many Mediterranean landscapes (e.g. an intricate land-use pattern, abandoned terraces and tracks interrupting slopes) may explain sometimes conflicting post-fire hydrological and erosional responses at different sites and spatial scales. First-year post-wildfire soil losses at point- (average, 45-56 t ha - 1 ) and plot-scales (many < 1 t ha - 1 and the majority < 10 t ha - 1 in the first year) are similar to or even lower than those reported for fire-affected land elsewhere or other disturbed (e.g. cultivated) and natural poorly-vegetated (e.g. badlands, rangeland) land in the Mediterranean. The few published losses at larger-scales (hillslope and catchment) are variable. Thin soil and high stone content can explain supply-limited erosion preceding significant protection by recovering vegetation. Peak erosion can sometimes be delayed for years, largely through slow vegetation recovery and temporal variability of erosive storms. Preferential removal of organic matter and nutrients in the commonly thin, degraded soils is arguably just as if not more important than the total soil loss. Aspect is important, with more erosion reported for south- than north-facing slopes, which is attributed to greater fire frequency, slower vegetation recovery on the former and with soil characteristics more prone to erosion (e.g. lower aggregate stability). Post-fire wind erosion is a potentially important but largely neglected process. Gauging the degradational significance of wildfires has relied on comparison with unburnt land, but the focus for comparison should be switched to other agents of soil disturbance and/or currently poorly understood soil renewal rates. Human impact on land use and vegetation may alter expected effects (increased fire activity and post-wildfire erosion) arising from future climatic change. Different future wildfire mitigation responses and likely erosional consequences are outlined. Research gaps are identified, and more research effort is suggested to: (1) improve assessment of post-wildfire erosion impact on soil fertility, through further quantification of soil nutrient depletion resulting from single and multiple fire cycles, and on soil longevity; (2) investigate prescribed fire impacts on carbon release, air pollution and nutrient losses as well as on soil loss; (3) isolate hillslope- and catchment-scale impacts of soil water repellency under Mediterranean post-wildfire conditions; (4) test and refine application of cosmogenic radionuclides to post-wildfire hillslope-scale soil redistribution at different temporal scales; (5) use better temporal resolution of sedimentary sequences to understand palaeofire-erosion-sedimentation links; (6) quantify post-wildfire wind erosion; (7) improve the integration of wildfire into an overall assessment of the processes and impacts of land degradation in the Mediterranean; and (8) raise public awareness of wildfire impact on soil degradation.

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE PAGES

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun; ...

2018-02-10

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

Evaluating the Health Impact of Large-Scale Public Policy Changes: Classical and Novel Approaches

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Meghani, Ankita; Siddiqi, Arjumand

2018-01-01

Large-scale public policy changes are often recommended to improve public health. Despite varying widely—from tobacco taxes to poverty-relief programs—such policies present a common dilemma to public health researchers: how to evaluate their health effects when randomized controlled trials are not possible. Here, we review the state of knowledge and experience of public health researchers who rigorously evaluate the health consequences of large-scale public policy changes. We organize our discussion by detailing approaches to address three common challenges of conducting policy evaluations: distinguishing a policy effect from time trends in health outcomes or preexisting differences between policy-affected and -unaffected communities (using difference-in-differences approaches); constructing a comparison population when a policy affects a population for whom a well-matched comparator is not immediately available (using propensity score or synthetic control approaches); and addressing unobserved confounders by utilizing quasi-random variations in policy exposure (using regression discontinuity, instrumental variables, or near-far matching approaches). PMID:28384086

Fermi rules out the IC/CMB model for the Large-Scale Jet X-ray emission of 3C 273

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georganopoulos, Markos; Meyer, E. T.

2014-01-01

The process responsible for the Chandra-detected X-ray emission from the large-scale jets of powerful quasars is not clear yet. The two main models are inverse Compton scattering off the cosmic microwave background (IC/CMB) photons and synchrotron emission from a population of electrons separate from those producing the radio-IR emission. These two models imply radically different conditions in the large scale jet in terms of jet speed and maximum energy of the particle acceleration mechanism, with important implications for the impact of the jet on the larger-scale environment. Georganopoulos et al. (2006) proposed a diagnostic based on a fundamental difference between these two models: the production of synchrotron X-rays requires multi-TeV electrons, while the EC/CMB model requires a cutoff in the electron energy distribution below TeV energies. This has significant implications for the gamma-ray emission predicted by these two models. Here we present new Fermi observations that put an upper limit on the gamma-ray flux from the large-scale jet of 3C 273 that clearly violates the flux expected from the IC/CMB X-ray interpretation found by extrapolation of the UV to X-ray spectrum of knot A, thus ruling out the IC/CMB interpretation entirely for this source. Further, the Fermi upper limit constraints the Doppler beaming factor delta <5.

Super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenderink, Geert; Barbero, Renaud; Loriaux, Jessica; Fowler, Hayley

2017-04-01

Present-day precipitation-temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation; for The Netherlands the dependency on surface dew point temperature follows two times the CC relation corresponding to 14 % per degree. Our hypothesis - as supported by a simple physical argument presented here - is that this 2CC behaviour arises from the physics of convective clouds. So, we think that this response is due to local feedbacks related to the convective activity, while other large scale atmospheric forcing conditions remain similar except for the higher temperature (approximately uniform warming with height) and absolute humidity (corresponding to the assumption of unchanged relative humidity). To test this hypothesis, we analysed the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events using surface observations combined with a regional re-analysis for the data in The Netherlands. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space derived from approximately 30 automatic weather stations. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dew point temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dew point temperature, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dew point temperature range, supporting our theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dew point. This increase in large-scale moisture convergence appears to be consequence of latent heat release due to the convective activity as estimated from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dew point temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming.

Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queiros, A. M.

2016-02-01

Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an inter-disciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterise a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual level responses, while acidification has a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multi-scale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Scale-dependent temporal variations in stream water geochemistry.

PubMed

Nagorski, Sonia A; Moore, Iohnnie N; McKinnon, Temple E; Smith, David B

2003-03-01

A year-long study of four western Montana streams (two impacted by mining and two "pristine") evaluated surface water geochemical dynamics on various time scales (monthly, daily, and bi-hourly). Monthly changes were dominated by snowmelt and precipitation dynamics. On the daily scale, post-rain surges in some solute and particulate concentrations were similar to those of early spring runoff flushing characteristics on the monthly scale. On the bi-hourly scale, we observed diel (diurnal-nocturnal) cycling for pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, total suspended sediment, and some total recoverable metals at some or all sites. A comparison of the cumulative geochemical variability within each of the temporal groups reveals that for many water quality parameters there were large overlaps of concentration ranges among groups. We found that short-term (daily and bi-hourly) variations of some geochemical parameters covered large proportions of the variations found on a much longer term (monthly) time scale. These results show the importance of nesting short-term studies within long-term geochemical study designs to separate signals of environmental change from natural variability.

Scale-dependent temporal variations in stream water geochemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nagorski, S.A.; Moore, J.N.; McKinnon, Temple E.; Smith, D.B.

2003-01-01

A year-long study of four western Montana streams (two impacted by mining and two "pristine") evaluated surface water geochemical dynamics on various time scales (monthly, daily, and bi-hourly). Monthly changes were dominated by snowmelt and precipitation dynamics. On the daily scale, post-rain surges in some solute and particulate concentrations were similar to those of early spring runoff flushing characteristics on the monthly scale. On the bi-hourly scale, we observed diel (diurnal-nocturnal) cycling for pH, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, total suspended sediment, and some total recoverable metals at some or all sites. A comparison of the cumulative geochemical variability within each of the temporal groups reveals that for many water quality parameters there were large overlaps of concentration ranges among groups. We found that short-term (daily and bi-hourly) variations of some geochemical parameters covered large proportions of the variations found on a much longer term (monthly) time scale. These results show the importance of nesting short-term studies within long-term geochemical study designs to separate signals of environmental change from natural variability.

Impact Forces from Tsunami-Driven Debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, H.; Cox, D. T.; Riggs, H.; Naito, C. J.; Kobayashi, M. H.; Piran Aghl, P.

2012-12-01

Debris driven by tsunami inundation flow has been known to be a significant threat to structures, yet we lack the constitutive equations necessary to predict debris impact force. The objective of this research project is to improve our understanding of, and predictive capabilities for, tsunami-driven debris impact forces on structures. Of special interest are shipping containers, which are virtually everywhere and which will float even when fully loaded. The forces from such debris hitting structures, for example evacuation shelters and critical port facilities such as fuel storage tanks, are currently not known. This research project focuses on the impact by flexible shipping containers on rigid columns and investigated using large-scale laboratory testing. Full-scale in-air collision experiments were conducted at Lehigh University with 20 ft shipping containers to experimentally quantify the nonlinear behavior of full scale shipping containers as they collide into structural elements. The results from the full scale experiments were used to calibrate computer models and used to design a series of simpler, 1:5 scale wave flume experiments at Oregon State University. Scaled in-air collision tests were conducted using 1:5 scale idealized containers to mimic the container behavior observed in the full scale tests and to provide a direct comparison to the hydraulic model tests. Two specimens were constructed using different materials (aluminum, acrylic) to vary the stiffness. The collision tests showed that at higher speeds, the collision became inelastic as the slope of maximum impact force/velocity decreased with increasing velocity. Hydraulic model tests were conducted using the 1:5 scaled shipping containers to measure the impact load by the containers on a rigid column. The column was instrumented with a load cell to measure impact forces, strain gages to measure the column deflection, and a video camera was used to provide the debris orientation and speed. The tsunami was modeled as a transient pulse command signal to the wavemaker to provide a low amplitude long wave. Results are expected to show the effect of the water on the debris collision by comparing water tests with the in-air tests. It is anticipated that the water will provide some combination of added mass and cushioning of the collision. Results will be compared with proposed equations for the new ASCE-7 standard and with numerical models at the University of Hawaii.

Global fluvial sediment retention by registered dam systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C.; Meybeck, M.; Fekete, B.; Sharma, K.; Green, P.; Syvitski, J.

2003-04-01

A framework for estimating global-scale impacts from reservoir construction on riverine sediment transport to the ocean is presented. Framework results depict a large, global-scale, and growing impact from anthropogenic impoundment. This study analyzes data on 633 of the world’s largest reservoirs (LRs) (>= 0.5 km^3 maximum storage) and uses statistical inference to assess the impact of the remaining >44,000 smaller reservoirs (SRs). Information on the LRs was linked to a digitized river network at 30' (latitude x longitude) resolution. A residence time change BoxBox_R) for otherwise free-flowing river water is determined locally at each reservoir and used with a sediment retention function to predict the proportion of incident sediment flux trapped within each impoundment. More than 40% of global river discharge is intercepted locally by the LRs analyzed and a significant proportion (≈ 70%) of this discharge maintains a sediment trapping efficiency in excess of 50%. Half of all discharge entering LRs shows a local trapping efficiency of 80% or more. Several large basins such as the Colorado and Nile show nearly complete trapping due to large reservoir construction and flow diversion. From the standpoint of sediment retention rates, the most heavily regulated drainage basins reside in Europe. North America, Africa, Australia/Oceania are also strongly affected by LRs. Globally, greater than 50% of basin-scale sediment flux in regulated basins is potentially trapped in artificial impoundments, with a discharge-weighted sediment trapping due to LRs of 30%, and an additional contribution of 23% from SRs. If we consider both regulated and unregulated basins, the interception of global sediment flux by all registered reservoirs (n ≈ 45,000) is conservatively placed at 4 to 5 Gt yr-1 or 25-30% of the total. There is an additional but unknown impact due to still smaller unregistered impoundments (n ≈ 800,000). From a global change perspective, the long-term impact of such hydraulic engineering works on the world's coastal zone appears to be significant but has yet to be fully elucidated.

Top predators, mesopredators and their prey: interference ecosystems along bioclimatic productivity gradients.

PubMed

Elmhagen, B; Ludwig, G; Rushton, S P; Helle, P; Lindén, H

2010-07-01

1. The Mesopredator Release Hypothesis (MRH) suggests that top predator suppression of mesopredators is a key ecosystem function with cascading impacts on herbivore prey, but it remains to be shown that this top-down cascade impacts the large-scale structure of ecosystems. 2. The Exploitation Ecosystems Hypothesis (EEH) predicts that regional ecosystem structures are determined by top-down exploitation and bottom-up productivity. In contrast to MRH, EEH assumes that interference among predators has a negligible impact on the structure of ecosystems with three trophic levels. 3. We use the recolonization of a top predator in a three-level boreal ecosystem as a natural experiment to test if large-scale biomass distributions and population trends support MRH. Inspired by EEH, we also test if top-down interference and bottom-up productivity impact regional ecosystem structures. 4. We use data from the Finnish Wildlife Triangle Scheme which has monitored top predator (lynx, Lynx lynx), mesopredator (red fox, Vulpes vulpes) and prey (mountain hare, Lepus timidus) abundance for 17 years in a 200 000 km(2) study area which covers a distinct productivity gradient. 5. Fox biomass was lower than expected from productivity where lynx biomass was high, whilst hare biomass was lower than expected from productivity where fox biomass was high. Hence, where interference controlled fox abundance, lynx had an indirect positive impact on hare abundance as predicted by MRH. The rates of change indicated that lynx expansion gradually suppressed fox biomass. 6. Lynx status caused shifts between ecosystem structures. In the 'interference ecosystem', lynx and hare biomass increased with productivity whilst fox biomass did not. In the 'mesopredator release ecosystem', fox biomass increased with productivity but hare biomass did not. Thus, biomass controlled top-down did not respond to changes in productivity. This fulfils a critical prediction of EEH. 7. We conclude that the cascade involving top predators, mesopredators and their prey can determine large-scale biomass distribution patterns and regional ecosystem structures. Hence, interference within trophic levels has to be taken into account to understand how terrestrial ecosystem structures are shaped.