Field-scale monitoring of the long-term impact and sustainability of drainage water reuse using ECa-directed soil sampling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diminishing freshwater resources have brought attention to the reuse of degraded water as a water resource rather than a disposal problem. Drainage water from tile-drained, irrigated agricultural land is degraded water that is often in large supply, but the long-term impact and sustainability of it...

Competition versus Cooperation: Implications for Music Teachers Following Students Feedback from Participation in a Large-Scale Cooperative Music Festival

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowe, Geoffrey M.

2018-01-01

Competition is reported in the general education literature as having a largely detrimental impact upon student engagement and long-term motivation, yet competition has long been an accepted part of the music education ensemble landscape. Adjudicated ensemble competitions and competition-festivals are commonplace in most Australian states, as…

Moon-based Earth Observation for Large Scale Geoscience Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Huadong; Liu, Guang; Ding, Yixing

2016-07-01

The capability of Earth observation for large-global-scale natural phenomena needs to be improved and new observing platform are expected. We have studied the concept of Moon as an Earth observation in these years. Comparing with manmade satellite platform, Moon-based Earth observation can obtain multi-spherical, full-band, active and passive information,which is of following advantages: large observation range, variable view angle, long-term continuous observation, extra-long life cycle, with the characteristics of longevity ,consistency, integrity, stability and uniqueness. Moon-based Earth observation is suitable for monitoring the large scale geoscience phenomena including large scale atmosphere change, large scale ocean change,large scale land surface dynamic change,solid earth dynamic change,etc. For the purpose of establishing a Moon-based Earth observation platform, we already have a plan to study the five aspects as follows: mechanism and models of moon-based observing earth sciences macroscopic phenomena; sensors' parameters optimization and methods of moon-based Earth observation; site selection and environment of moon-based Earth observation; Moon-based Earth observation platform; and Moon-based Earth observation fundamental scientific framework.

Scaling behavior of EEG amplitude and frequency time series across sleep stages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Tismer, Sebastian; Gans, Fabian; Schumann, Aicko Y.; Penzel, Thomas

2015-10-01

We study short-term and long-term persistence properties (related with auto-correlations) of amplitudes and frequencies of EEG oscillations in 176 healthy subjects and 40 patients during nocturnal sleep. The amplitudes show scaling from 2 to 500 seconds (depending on the considered band) with large fluctuation exponents during (nocturnal) wakefulness (0.73-0.83) and small ones during deep sleep (0.50-0.69). Light sleep is similar to deep sleep, while REM sleep (0.64-0.76) is closer to wakefulness except for the EEG γ band. Some of the frequency time series also show long-term scaling, depending on the selected bands and stages. Only minor deviations are seen for patients with depression, anxiety, or Parkinson's disease.

Field-scale monitoring of the long-term impact and sustainability of drainage water reuse on the west side of California’s San Joaquin Valley

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diminishing freshwater resources have brought attention to the reuse of degraded water as a potential water resource rather than as a disposal problem. Drainage water from tile-drained, irrigated agricultural land is degraded water that is often in large supply, but the long-term impact and sustain...

Facilitating Long-Term Recovery from Natural Disasters: Psychosocial Programming for Tsunami-Affected Schools of Sri Lanka

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nastasi, Bonnie K.; Jayasena, Asoka; Summerville, Meredith; Borja, Amanda P.

2011-01-01

This article reports the findings of a school-based intervention project conducted in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka 15 to 18 months after the December 2004 Tsunami. The work responds to the need for culturally relevant programming to address long-term psychosocial recovery of children and adolescents affected by large scale disasters. Program…

Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

PubMed

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

Transitioning to a new nursing home: one organization's experience.

PubMed

O'Brien, Kelli; Welsh, Darlene; Lundrigan, Elaine; Doyle, Anne

2013-01-01

Restructuring of long-term care in Western Health, a regional health authority within Newfoundland and Labrador, created a unique opportunity to study the widespread impacts of the transition. Staff and long-term-care residents were relocated from a variety of settings to a newly constructed facility. A plan was developed to assess the impact of relocation on staff, residents, and families. Indicators included fall rates, medication errors, complaints, media database, sick leave, overtime, injuries, and staff and family satisfaction. This article reports on the findings and lessons learned from an organizational perspective with such a large-scale transition. Some of the key findings included the necessity of premove and postmove strategies to minimize negative impacts, ongoing communication and involvement in decision making during transitions, tracking of key indicators, recognition from management regarding increased workload and stress experienced by staff, engagement of residents and families throughout the transition, and assessing the timing of large-scale relocations. These findings would be of interest to health care managers and leadership team in organizations planning large-scale changes.

Population cycles are highly correlated over long time series and large spatial scales in two unrelated species: Greater sage-grouse and cottontail rabbits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, B.C.; Doherty, K.E.

2011-01-01

Animal species across multiple taxa demonstrate multi-annual population cycles, which have long been of interest to ecologists. Correlated population cycles between species that do not share a predator-prey relationship are particularly intriguing and challenging to explain. We investigated annual population trends of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus sp.) across Wyoming to explore the possibility of correlations between unrelated species, over multiple cycles, very large spatial areas, and relatively southern latitudes in terms of cycling species. We analyzed sage-grouse lek counts and annual hunter harvest indices from 1982 to 2007. We show that greater sage-grouse, currently listed as warranted but precluded under the US Endangered Species Act, and cottontails have highly correlated cycles (r = 0. 77). We explore possible mechanistic hypotheses to explain the synchronous population cycles. Our research highlights the importance of control populations in both adaptive management and impact studies. Furthermore, we demonstrate the functional value of these indices (lek counts and hunter harvest) for tracking broad-scale fluctuations in the species. This level of highly correlated long-term cycling has not previously been documented between two non-related species, over a long time-series, very large spatial scale, and within more southern latitudes. ?? 2010 US Government.

A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China.

PubMed

Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

2013-06-01

Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 - 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 - 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conservation lessons from large-mammal manipulations in East African savannas: the KLEE, UHURU, and GLADE experiments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

African savannas support an iconic fauna, but they are undergoing large-scale population declines and extinctions of large (>5 kg) mammals. Long-term, controlled, replicated experiments that explore the consequences of this defaunation (and its replacement with livestock) are rare. The Mpala Researc...

Innovative Visualizations Shed Light on Avian Nocturnal Migration

PubMed Central

Farnsworth, Andrew; Aelterman, Bart; Alves, Jose A.; Azijn, Kevin; Bernstein, Garrett; Branco, Sérgio; Desmet, Peter; Dokter, Adriaan M.; Horton, Kyle; Kelling, Steve; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Leijnse, Hidde; Rong, Jingjing; Sheldon, Daniel; Van den Broeck, Wouter; Van Den Meersche, Jan Klaas; Van Doren, Benjamin Mark; van Gasteren, Hans

2016-01-01

Globally, billions of flying animals undergo seasonal migrations, many of which occur at night. The temporal and spatial scales at which migrations occur and our inability to directly observe these nocturnal movements makes monitoring and characterizing this critical period in migratory animals’ life cycles difficult. Remote sensing, therefore, has played an important role in our understanding of large-scale nocturnal bird migrations. Weather surveillance radar networks in Europe and North America have great potential for long-term low-cost monitoring of bird migration at scales that have previously been impossible to achieve. Such long-term monitoring, however, poses a number of challenges for the ornithological and ecological communities: how does one take advantage of this vast data resource, integrate information across multiple sensors and large spatial and temporal scales, and visually represent the data for interpretation and dissemination, considering the dynamic nature of migration? We assembled an interdisciplinary team of ecologists, meteorologists, computer scientists, and graphic designers to develop two different flow visualizations, which are interactive and open source, in order to create novel representations of broad-front nocturnal bird migration to address a primary impediment to long-term, large-scale nocturnal migration monitoring. We have applied these visualization techniques to mass bird migration events recorded by two different weather surveillance radar networks covering regions in Europe and North America. These applications show the flexibility and portability of such an approach. The visualizations provide an intuitive representation of the scale and dynamics of these complex systems, are easily accessible for a broad interest group, and are biologically insightful. Additionally, they facilitate fundamental ecological research, conservation, mitigation of human–wildlife conflicts, improvement of meteorological products, and public outreach, education, and engagement. PMID:27557096

Innovative Visualizations Shed Light on Avian Nocturnal Migration.

PubMed

Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Farnsworth, Andrew; Aelterman, Bart; Alves, Jose A; Azijn, Kevin; Bernstein, Garrett; Branco, Sérgio; Desmet, Peter; Dokter, Adriaan M; Horton, Kyle; Kelling, Steve; Kelly, Jeffrey F; Leijnse, Hidde; Rong, Jingjing; Sheldon, Daniel; Van den Broeck, Wouter; Van Den Meersche, Jan Klaas; Van Doren, Benjamin Mark; van Gasteren, Hans

2016-01-01

Globally, billions of flying animals undergo seasonal migrations, many of which occur at night. The temporal and spatial scales at which migrations occur and our inability to directly observe these nocturnal movements makes monitoring and characterizing this critical period in migratory animals' life cycles difficult. Remote sensing, therefore, has played an important role in our understanding of large-scale nocturnal bird migrations. Weather surveillance radar networks in Europe and North America have great potential for long-term low-cost monitoring of bird migration at scales that have previously been impossible to achieve. Such long-term monitoring, however, poses a number of challenges for the ornithological and ecological communities: how does one take advantage of this vast data resource, integrate information across multiple sensors and large spatial and temporal scales, and visually represent the data for interpretation and dissemination, considering the dynamic nature of migration? We assembled an interdisciplinary team of ecologists, meteorologists, computer scientists, and graphic designers to develop two different flow visualizations, which are interactive and open source, in order to create novel representations of broad-front nocturnal bird migration to address a primary impediment to long-term, large-scale nocturnal migration monitoring. We have applied these visualization techniques to mass bird migration events recorded by two different weather surveillance radar networks covering regions in Europe and North America. These applications show the flexibility and portability of such an approach. The visualizations provide an intuitive representation of the scale and dynamics of these complex systems, are easily accessible for a broad interest group, and are biologically insightful. Additionally, they facilitate fundamental ecological research, conservation, mitigation of human-wildlife conflicts, improvement of meteorological products, and public outreach, education, and engagement.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a tree-killing beetle and its predator

Treesearch

Aaron S. Weed; Matthew P. Ayres; Andrew M. Liebhold; Ronald F. Billings

2016-01-01

Resolving linkages between local-scale processes and regional-scale patterns in abundance of interacting species is important for understanding long-term population stability across spatial scales. Landscape patterning in consumer population dynamics may be largely the result of interactions between consumers and their predators, or driven by spatial variation in basal...

Relative contributions of set-asides and tree retention to the long-term availability of key forest biodiversity structures at the landscape scale.

PubMed

Roberge, Jean-Michel; Lämås, Tomas; Lundmark, Tomas; Ranius, Thomas; Felton, Adam; Nordin, Annika

2015-05-01

Over previous decades new environmental measures have been implemented in forestry. In Fennoscandia, forest management practices were modified to set aside conservation areas and to retain trees at final felling. In this study we simulated the long-term effects of set-aside establishment and tree retention practices on the future availability of large trees and dead wood, two forest structures of documented importance to biodiversity conservation. Using a forest decision support system (Heureka), we projected the amounts of these structures over 200 years in two managed north Swedish landscapes, under management scenarios with and without set-asides and tree retention. In line with common best practice, we simulated set-asides covering 5% of the productive area with priority to older stands, as well as ∼5% green-tree retention (solitary trees and forest patches) including high-stump creation at final felling. We found that only tree retention contributed to substantial increases in the future density of large (DBH ≥35 cm) deciduous trees, while both measures made significant contributions to the availability of large conifers. It took more than half a century to observe stronger increases in the densities of large deciduous trees as an effect of tree retention. The mean landscape-scale volumes of hard dead wood fluctuated widely, but the conservation measures yielded values which were, on average over the entire simulation period, about 2.5 times as high as for scenarios without these measures. While the density of large conifers increased with time in the landscape initially dominated by younger forest, best practice conservation measures did not avert a long-term decrease in large conifer density in the landscape initially comprised of more old forest. Our results highlight the needs to adopt a long temporal perspective and to consider initial landscape conditions when evaluating the large-scale effects of conservation measures on forest biodiversity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Presenting an Approach for Conducting Knowledge Architecture within Large-Scale Organizations

PubMed Central

Varaee, Touraj; Habibi, Jafar; Mohaghar, Ali

2015-01-01

Knowledge architecture (KA) establishes the basic groundwork for the successful implementation of a short-term or long-term knowledge management (KM) program. An example of KA is the design of a prototype before a new vehicle is manufactured. Due to a transformation to large-scale organizations, the traditional architecture of organizations is undergoing fundamental changes. This paper explores the main strengths and weaknesses in the field of KA within large-scale organizations and provides a suitable methodology and supervising framework to overcome specific limitations. This objective was achieved by applying and updating the concepts from the Zachman information architectural framework and the information architectural methodology of enterprise architecture planning (EAP). The proposed solution may be beneficial for architects in knowledge-related areas to successfully accomplish KM within large-scale organizations. The research method is descriptive; its validity is confirmed by performing a case study and polling the opinions of KA experts. PMID:25993414

Presenting an Approach for Conducting Knowledge Architecture within Large-Scale Organizations.

PubMed

Varaee, Touraj; Habibi, Jafar; Mohaghar, Ali

2015-01-01

Knowledge architecture (KA) establishes the basic groundwork for the successful implementation of a short-term or long-term knowledge management (KM) program. An example of KA is the design of a prototype before a new vehicle is manufactured. Due to a transformation to large-scale organizations, the traditional architecture of organizations is undergoing fundamental changes. This paper explores the main strengths and weaknesses in the field of KA within large-scale organizations and provides a suitable methodology and supervising framework to overcome specific limitations. This objective was achieved by applying and updating the concepts from the Zachman information architectural framework and the information architectural methodology of enterprise architecture planning (EAP). The proposed solution may be beneficial for architects in knowledge-related areas to successfully accomplish KM within large-scale organizations. The research method is descriptive; its validity is confirmed by performing a case study and polling the opinions of KA experts.

Development of lichen response indexes using a regional gradient modeling approach for large-scale monitoring of forests

Treesearch

Susan Will-Wolf; Peter Neitlich

2010-01-01

Development of a regional lichen gradient model from community data is a powerful tool to derive lichen indexes of response to environmental factors for large-scale and long-term monitoring of forest ecosystems. The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service includes lichens in its national inventory of forests of...

Comparison of Ice Cloud Particle Sizes Retrieved from Satellite Data Derived from In Situ Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Qingyuan; Rossow, William B.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

1997-01-01

Cloud microphysical parameterizations have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years due to their effect on cloud radiative properties and cloud-related hydrological processes in large-scale models. The parameterization of cirrus particle size has been demonstrated as an indispensable component in the climate feedback analysis. Therefore, global-scale, long-term observations of cirrus particle sizes are required both as a basis of and as a validation of parameterizations for climate models. While there is a global scale, long-term survey of water cloud droplet sizes (Han et al.), there is no comparable study for cirrus ice crystals. This study is an effort to supply such a data set.

Long-term and large-scale perspectives on the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, A.J.; Chapin, F. S.; Wall, D.H.; Gross, K.L.; Huenneke, L.F.; Mittelbach, G.G.; Peters, Debra P.C.; Tilman, D.

2003-01-01

In a growing body of literature from a variety of ecosystems is strong evidence that various components of biodiversity have significant impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, much of this evidence comes from short-term, small-scale experiments in which communities are synthesized from relatively small species pools and conditions are highly controlled. Extrapolation of the results of such experiments to longer time scales and larger spatial scales—those of whole ecosystems—is difficult because the experiments do not incorporate natural processes such as recruitment limitation and colonization of new species. We show how long-term study of planned and accidental changes in species richness and composition suggests that the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning will vary over time and space. More important, we also highlight areas of uncertainty that need to be addressed through coordinated cross-scale and cross-site research.

The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2016-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

Landscape-level impacts of livestock on the diversity of a desert grassland: preliminary results from long-term experimental studies

Treesearch

Charles G. Curtin

2005-01-01

This work is undertaken as a portion of long-term large-scale studies developed to determine how climate and disturbance (primarily fire and grazing) interact to structure desert grasslands. The results presented here are the initial grazing portions of the study. The analysis presented here indicates that following the reintroduction of cattle to the research area in...

Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donovan, K.

2014-12-01

When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

Long-term intensive management increased carbon occluded in phytolith (PhytOC) in bamboo forest soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Zhang-Ting; Li, Yong-Fu; Jiang, Pei-Kun; Chang, Scott X.; Song, Zhao-Liang; Liu, Juan; Zhou, Guo-Mo

2014-01-01

Carbon (C) occluded in phytolith (PhytOC) is highly stable at millennium scale and its accumulation in soils can help increase long-term C sequestration. Here, we report that soil PhytOC storage significantly increased with increasing duration under intensive management (mulching and fertilization) in Lei bamboo (Phyllostachys praecox) plantations. The PhytOC storage in 0-40 cm soil layer in bamboo plantations increased by 217 Mg C ha-1, 20 years after being converted from paddy fields. The PhytOC accumulated at 79 kg C ha-1 yr-1, a rate far exceeding the global mean long-term soil C accumulation rate of 24 kg C ha-1 yr-1 reported in the literature. Approximately 86% of the increased PhytOC came from the large amount of mulch applied. Our data clearly demonstrate the decadal scale management effect on PhytOC accumulation, suggesting that heavy mulching is a potential method for increasing long-term organic C storage in soils for mitigating global climate change.

A psychometric evaluation of the Chinese version of the nursing home survey on patient safety culture.

PubMed

Lin, Shu-Yuan; Tseng, Wei Ting; Hsu, Miao-Ju; Chiang, Hui-Ying; Tseng, Hui-Chen

2017-12-01

To test the psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale among staff in long-term care facilities. The Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale is a standard tool for safety culture assessment in nursing homes. Extending its application to different types of long-term care facilities and varied ethnic populations is worth pursuing. A national random survey. A total of 306 managers and staff completed the Chinese version of the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale among 30 long-term care facilities in Taiwan. Content validity and construct validity were tested by content validity index (CVI) and principal axis factor analysis (PAF) with Promax rotation. Concurrent validity was tested through correlations between the scale and two overall rating items. Reliability was computed by intraclass correlation coefficient and Cronbach's α coefficients. Statistical analyses such as descriptive, Pearson's and Spearman's rho correlations and PAF were completed. Scale-level and item-level CVIs (0.91-0.98) of the Chinese version of the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale were satisfactory. Four-factor construct and merged item composition differed from the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale, and it accounted for 53% of variance. Concurrent validity was evident by existing positive correlations between the scale and two overall ratings of resident safety. Cronbach's α coefficients of the subscales and the Chinese version of the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale ranged from .76-.94. The Chinese version of the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale identified essential dimensions to reflect the important features of a patient safety culture in long-term care facilities. The researchers introduced the Chinese version of the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture for safety culture assessment in long-term care facilities, but further testing of the reliability of the scale in a large Chinese sample and in different long-term care facilities was recommended. The Chinese version of the Nursing Home Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale was developed to increase the users' intention towards safety culture assessment. It can identify areas for improvement, understand safety culture changes over time and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term outcomes of acute ischemic stroke patients treated with endovascular thrombectomy: A real-world experience.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenbo; Shang, Shuyi; Li, Chuanhui; Wu, Longfei; Wu, Chuanjie; Chen, Jian; Song, Haiqing; Zhang, Hongqi; Zhang, Yunzhou; Duan, Jiangang; Feng, Wuwei; Ji, Xunming

2018-07-15

Long-term follow-up of large trials have confirmed the superiority of endovascular thrombectomy (ET) for treating acute ischemic stroke (AIS). However, it is still unknown whether these results can be generalized to clinical practice. In this study, we aimed to determine the long-term outcomes of AIS post-ET in the real-world clinical practice. This observational study is based on a single-center prospective registry study. AIS patients were treated with second-generation stent retrievers from December 2012 to April 2016. The primary outcome was modified Ranks scale (mRS) at the time of the latest assessment. Favorable outcome was defined as mRS scores 0-2, and the unfavorable outcome was defined as mRS scores 3-6. Eighty-nine AIS subjects with large artery occlusion in anterior circulation undergoing ET were eligible for analysis. Median follow-up duration was 20 months (interquartile range 6-32), and 47 subjects (53%) achieved favorable outcome whereas 17 subjects (19%) were functional dependence and 25 subjects (28%) died. Independent predicators for long-term unfavorable outcome were higher baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (odd ratio:1.21;95% confidence interval 1.09-1.35; p < 0.001) and symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) (odd ratio:16.45;95% confidence interval 1.34-193.44; p = 0.026). More subjects of large-artery-atherosclerosis underwent permanent intracranial stenting (22%vs.10%) as compared with those of cardioembolism, while subjects of cardioembolism were more likely to experience sICH (13%vs.8%) and died (32%vs.16%). Over half of AIS patients can achieve favorable long-term outcomes post-ET. Higher baseline NIHSS scores and sICH are independently associated with unfavorable outcome. Overall, clinical practice in this single canter can replicate the long-term outcomes from the published endovascular clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The ecological future of the North American bison: Conceiving long-term, large-scale conservation of a species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderson, E.W.; Redford, Kent; Weber, Bill; Aune, K.; Baldes, Dick; Berger, J.; Carter, Dave; Curtin, C.; Derr, James N.; Dobrott, S.J.; Fearn, Eva; Fleener, Craig; Forrest, Steven C.; Gerlach, Craig; Gates, C. Cormack; Gross, J.E.; Gogan, P.; Grassel, Shaun M.; Hilty, Jodi A.; Jensen, Marv; Kunkel, Kyran; Lammers, Duane; List, R.; Minkowski, Karen; Olson, Tom; Pague, Chris; Robertson, Paul B.; Stephenson, Bob

2008-01-01

Many wide-ranging mammal species have experienced significant declines over the last 200 years; restoring these species will require long-term, large-scale recovery efforts. We highlight 5 attributes of a recent range-wide vision-setting exercise for ecological recovery of the North American bison (Bison bison) that are broadly applicable to other species and restoration targets. The result of the exercise, the “Vermejo Statement” on bison restoration, is explicitly (1) large scale, (2) long term, (3) inclusive, (4) fulfilling of different values, and (5) ambitious. It reads, in part, “Over the next century, the ecological recovery of the North American bison will occur when multiple large herds move freely across extensive landscapes within all major habitats of their historic range, interacting in ecologically significant ways with the fullest possible set of other native species, and inspiring, sustaining and connecting human cultures.” We refined the vision into a scorecard that illustrates how individual bison herds can contribute to the vision. We also developed a set of maps and analyzed the current and potential future distributions of bison on the basis of expert assessment. Although more than 500,000 bison exist in North America today, we estimated they occupy <1% of their historical range and in no place express the full range of ecological and social values of previous times. By formulating an inclusive, affirmative, and specific vision through consultation with a wide range of stakeholders, we hope to provide a foundation for conservation of bison, and other wide-ranging species, over the next 100 years.

The U.S. Army in Southeast Asia: Near-Term and Long-Term Roles

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

clashes sparking naval skirmishes.10 That said, the prospect of the SCS disputes trig- gering a major conflagration with large-scale casualties appears...However, there is a general consensus within ASEAN that these problems constitute concrete security concerns and that defense establish- ments will

The impact of large-scale, long-term optical surveys on pulsating star research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soszyński, Igor

2017-09-01

The era of large-scale photometric variability surveys began a quarter of a century ago, when three microlensing projects - EROS, MACHO, and OGLE - started their operation. These surveys initiated a revolution in the field of variable stars and in the next years they inspired many new observational projects. Large-scale optical surveys multiplied the number of variable stars known in the Universe. The huge, homogeneous and complete catalogs of pulsating stars, such as Cepheids, RR Lyrae stars, or long-period variables, offer an unprecedented opportunity to calibrate and test the accuracy of various distance indicators, to trace the three-dimensional structure of the Milky Way and other galaxies, to discover exotic types of intrinsically variable stars, or to study previously unknown features and behaviors of pulsators. We present historical and recent findings on various types of pulsating stars obtained from the optical large-scale surveys, with particular emphasis on the OGLE project which currently offers the largest photometric database among surveys for stellar variability.

Structure of large-scale flows and their oscillation in the thermal convection of liquid gallium.

PubMed

Yanagisawa, Takatoshi; Yamagishi, Yasuko; Hamano, Yozo; Tasaka, Yuji; Yoshida, Masataka; Yano, Kanako; Takeda, Yasushi

2010-07-01

This investigation observed large-scale flows in liquid gallium and the oscillation with Rayleigh-Bénard convection. An ultrasonic velocity profiling method was used to visualize the spatiotemporal flow pattern of the liquid gallium in a horizontally long rectangular vessel. Measuring the horizontal component of the flow velocity at several lines, an organized roll-like structure with four cells was observed in the 1×10(4)-2×10(5) range of Rayleigh numbers, and the rolls show clear oscillatory behavior. The long-term fluctuations in temperature observed in point measurements correspond to the oscillations of the organized roll structure. This flow structure can be interpreted as the continuous development of the oscillatory instability of two-dimensional roll convection that is theoretically investigated around the critical Rayleigh number. Both the velocity of the large-scale flows and the frequency of the oscillation increase proportional to the square root of the Rayleigh number. This indicates that the oscillation is closely related to the circulation of large-scale flow.

Long-term changes in the South China Sea summer monsoon revealed by station observations of the Xisha Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jianyin; Yang, Song; Li, Cunhui; Li, Xia

2007-05-01

The authors depict the long-term changes in the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon using observational data of the Xisha Islands. The SCS monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon system, and its long-term changes have seldom been explored because of the unavailability of reliable data. The daily Xisha station observations provide an important source of information for understanding the changes in the monsoon. The intensity of the SCS summer monsoon measured by kinetic energy decreased significantly from 1958-1977 to 1978-2004. This change in monsoon was mainly caused by the weakening of the meridional component of lower tropospheric winds, and the weakening in the mean flow was signaled by decreased frequency of strong southerlies (6 m s-1 and above) of the daily winds. The weakening of the monsoon was also associated with increases in sea surface temperature and surface and lower tropospheric air temperatures over SCS, which occurred more frequently when daily surface temperature reaches 29°C and higher. The long-term warming of the lower troposphere was accompanied by cooling at the upper troposphere, destabilizing the local atmosphere. However, from 1958-1977 to 1978-2004, the long-term change in Xisha precipitation tended to decrease; furthermore, in fact, the station precipitation became less variable. Thus besides local air-sea interaction, large-scale atmospheric forcing also plays an important role in causing the long-term change of the Xisha precipitation. Indeed, the warming of Xisha was linked to large-scale warming in the tropics including SCS and was associated with smaller thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the surrounding oceans, which weakened monsoon circulation.

Simulating Daily and Sub-daily Water Flow in Large, Semi-arid Watershed Using SWAT: A Case Study of Nueces River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassam, S.; Ren, J.

2015-12-01

Runoff generated during heavy rainfall imposes quick, but often intense, changes in the flow of streams, which increase the chance of flash floods in the vicinity of the streams. Understanding the temporal response of streams to heavy rainfall requires a hydrological model that considers meteorological, hydrological, and geological components of the streams and their watersheds. SWAT is a physically-based, semi-distributed model that is capable of simulating water flow within watersheds with both long-term, i.e. annually and monthly, and short-term (daily and sub-daily) time scales. However, the capability of SWAT in sub-daily water flow modeling within large watersheds has not been studied much, compare to long-term and daily time scales. In this study we are investigating the water flow in a large, semi-arid watershed, Nueces River Basin (NRB) with the drainage area of 16950 mi2 located in South Texas, with daily and sub-daily time scales. The objectives of this study are: (1) simulating the response of streams to heavy, and often quick, rainfall, (2) evaluating SWAT performance in sub-daily modeling of water flow within a large watershed, and (3) examining means for model performance improvement during model calibration and verification based on results of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results of this study can provide important information for water resources planning during flood seasons.

[Thirty years of US long-term ecological research: characteristics, results, and lessons learned of--taking the Virginia Coast Reserve as an example].

PubMed

Zhu, Gao-Ru; Porter, John H; Xu, Xue-Gong

2011-06-01

In order to observe and understand long-term and large-scale ecological changes, the US National Science Foundation initiated a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program in 1980. Over the past 30 years, the US LTER program has achieved advances in ecological and social science research, and in the development of site-based research infrastructure. This paper attributed the success of the program to five characteristics, i.e., 1) consistency of research topics and data across the network, 2) long-term time scale of both the research and the program, 3) flexibility in research content and funding procedures, 4) growth of LTER to include international partners, new disciplines such as social science, advanced research methods, and cooperation among sites, and 5) sharing of data and educational resources. The Virginia Coast Reserve LTER site was taken as an example to illustrate how the US LTER works at site level. Some suggestions were made on the China long-term ecological research, including strengthening institution construction, improving network and inter-site cooperation, emphasizing data quality, management, and sharing, reinforcing multidisciplinary cooperation, and expanding public influence.

The evolving magnetic topology of τ Boötis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengel, M. W.; Fares, R.; Marsden, S. C.; Carter, B. D.; Jeffers, S. V.; Petit, P.; Donati, J.-F.; Folsom, C. P.; BCool Collaboration

2016-07-01

We present six epochs of spectropolarimetric observations of the hot-Jupiter-hosting star τ Boötis that extend the exceptional previous multiyear data set of its large-scale magnetic field. Our results confirm that the large-scale magnetic field of τ Boötis varies cyclicly, with the observation of two further magnetic reversals; between 2013 December and 2014 May and between 2015 January and March. We also show that the field evolves in a broadly solar-type manner in contrast to other F-type stars. We further present new results which indicate that the chromospheric activity cycle and the magnetic activity cycles are related, which would indicate a very rapid magnetic cycle. As an exemplar of long-term magnetic field evolution, τ Boötis and this long-term monitoring campaign presents a unique opportunity for studying stellar magnetic cycles.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

Between Scylla and Charybdis: Delayed mitigation narrows the passage between large-scale CDR and high costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strefler, Jessica; Bauer, Nico; Kriegler, Elmar; Popp, Alexander; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2018-04-01

There are major concerns about the sustainability of large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. It is therefore an urgent question to what extent CDR will be needed to implement the long term ambition of the Paris Agreement. Here we show that ambitious near term mitigation significantly decreases CDR requirements to keep the Paris climate targets within reach. Following the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) until 2030 makes 2 °C unachievable without CDR. Reducing 2030 emissions by 20% below NDC levels alleviates the trade-off between high transitional challenges and high CDR deployment. Nevertheless, transitional challenges increase significantly if CDR is constrained to less than 5 Gt CO2 a‑1 in any year. At least 8 Gt CO2 a‑1 CDR are necessary in the long term to achieve 1.5 °C and more than 15 Gt CO2 a‑1 to keep transitional challenges in bounds.

Polar ocean ecosystems in a changing world.

PubMed

Smetacek, Victor; Nicol, Stephen

2005-09-15

Polar organisms have adapted their seasonal cycles to the dynamic interface between ice and water. This interface ranges from the micrometre-sized brine channels within sea ice to the planetary-scale advance and retreat of sea ice. Polar marine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change because small temperature differences can have large effects on the extent and thickness of sea ice. Little is known about the interactions between large, long-lived organisms and their planktonic food supply. Disentangling the effects of human exploitation of upper trophic levels from basin-wide, decade-scale climate cycles to identify long-term, global trends is a daunting challenge facing polar bio-oceanography.

Musical expertise is related to altered functional connectivity during audiovisual integration

PubMed Central

Paraskevopoulos, Evangelos; Kraneburg, Anja; Herholz, Sibylle Cornelia; Bamidis, Panagiotis D.; Pantev, Christo

2015-01-01

The present study investigated the cortical large-scale functional network underpinning audiovisual integration via magnetoencephalographic recordings. The reorganization of this network related to long-term musical training was investigated by comparing musicians to nonmusicians. Connectivity was calculated on the basis of the estimated mutual information of the sources’ activity, and the corresponding networks were statistically compared. Nonmusicians’ results indicated that the cortical network associated with audiovisual integration supports visuospatial processing and attentional shifting, whereas a sparser network, related to spatial awareness supports the identification of audiovisual incongruences. In contrast, musicians’ results showed enhanced connectivity in regions related to the identification of auditory pattern violations. Hence, nonmusicians rely on the processing of visual clues for the integration of audiovisual information, whereas musicians rely mostly on the corresponding auditory information. The large-scale cortical network underpinning multisensory integration is reorganized due to expertise in a cognitive domain that largely involves audiovisual integration, indicating long-term training-related neuroplasticity. PMID:26371305

Evaluation of Ku-Band Sensitivity To Soil Moisture: Soil Moisture Change Detection Over the NAFE06 Study Area

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A very promising technique for spatial disaggregation of soil moisture is on the combination of radiometer and radar observations. Despite their demonstrated potential for long term large scale monitoring of soil moisture, passive and active have their disadvantages in terms of temporal and spatial ...

Coronal hole evolution by sudden large scale changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, J. T.; Gerassimenko, M.; Krieger, A. S.; Solodyna, C. V.

1978-01-01

Sudden shifts in coronal-hole boundaries observed by the S-054 X-ray telescope on Skylab between May and November, 1973, within 1 day of CMP of the holes, at latitudes not exceeding 40 deg, are compared with the long-term evolution of coronal-hole area. It is found that large-scale shifts in boundary locations can account for most if not all of the evolution of coronal holes. The temporal and spatial scales of these large-scale changes imply that they are the results of a physical process occurring in the corona. It is concluded that coronal holes evolve by magnetic-field lines' opening when the holes are growing, and by fields' closing as the holes shrink.

Long-term intensive management increased carbon occluded in phytolith (PhytOC) in bamboo forest soils

PubMed Central

Huang, Zhang-ting; Li, Yong-fu; Jiang, Pei-kun; Chang, Scott X.; Song, Zhao-liang; Liu, Juan; Zhou, Guo-mo

2014-01-01

Carbon (C) occluded in phytolith (PhytOC) is highly stable at millennium scale and its accumulation in soils can help increase long-term C sequestration. Here, we report that soil PhytOC storage significantly increased with increasing duration under intensive management (mulching and fertilization) in Lei bamboo (Phyllostachys praecox) plantations. The PhytOC storage in 0–40 cm soil layer in bamboo plantations increased by 217 Mg C ha−1, 20 years after being converted from paddy fields. The PhytOC accumulated at 79 kg C ha−1 yr−1, a rate far exceeding the global mean long-term soil C accumulation rate of 24 kg C ha−1 yr−1 reported in the literature. Approximately 86% of the increased PhytOC came from the large amount of mulch applied. Our data clearly demonstrate the decadal scale management effect on PhytOC accumulation, suggesting that heavy mulching is a potential method for increasing long-term organic C storage in soils for mitigating global climate change. PMID:24398703

Erosion, sedimentation, and cumulative effects in the Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Walter F. Megahan; John G. King

2004-01-01

Erosion and sedimentation are natural geomorphic processes characterized by large temporal and spatial variability. Recent radionuclide studies suggest that rare episodic events, such as large wildfires, produce massive sediment yields over time scales of thousands of years, thereby causing long-term average sediment production to exceed present-day average erosion...

Long-term spatial and temporal microbial community dynamics in a large-scale drinking water distribution system with multiple disinfectant regimes.

PubMed

Potgieter, Sarah; Pinto, Ameet; Sigudu, Makhosazana; du Preez, Hein; Ncube, Esper; Venter, Stephanus

2018-08-01

Long-term spatial-temporal investigations of microbial dynamics in full-scale drinking water distribution systems are scarce. These investigations can reveal the process, infrastructure, and environmental factors that influence the microbial community, offering opportunities to re-think microbial management in drinking water systems. Often, these insights are missed or are unreliable in short-term studies, which are impacted by stochastic variabilities inherent to large full-scale systems. In this two-year study, we investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the microbial community in a large, full scale South African drinking water distribution system that uses three successive disinfection strategies (i.e. chlorination, chloramination and hypochlorination). Monthly bulk water samples were collected from the outlet of the treatment plant and from 17 points in the distribution system spanning nearly 150 km and the bacterial community composition was characterised by Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the V4 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene. Like previous studies, Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria dominated the drinking water bacterial communities, with an increase in Betaproteobacteria post-chloramination. In contrast with previous reports, the observed richness, diversity, and evenness of the bacterial communities were higher in the winter months as opposed to the summer months in this study. In addition to temperature effects, the seasonal variations were also likely to be influenced by changes in average water age in the distribution system and corresponding changes in disinfectant residual concentrations. Spatial dynamics of the bacterial communities indicated distance decay, with bacterial communities becoming increasingly dissimilar with increasing distance between sampling locations. These spatial effects dampened the temporal changes in the bulk water community and were the dominant factor when considering the entire distribution system. However, temporal variations were consistently stronger as compared to spatial changes at individual sampling locations and demonstrated seasonality. This study emphasises the need for long-term studies to comprehensively understand the temporal patterns that would otherwise be missed in short-term investigations. Furthermore, systematic long-term investigations are particularly critical towards determining the impact of changes in source water quality, environmental conditions, and process operations on the changes in microbial community composition in the drinking water distribution system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term Observations of Intense Precipitation Small-scale Spatial Variability in a Semi-arid Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.

2017-12-01

In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Teaching mathematics online in the European Area of Higher Education: an instructor's point of view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juan, Angel A.; Steegmann, Cristina; Huertas, Antonia; Martinez, M. Jesus; Simosa, J.

2011-03-01

This article first discusses how information technologies are changing the way knowledge is delivered at universities worldwide. Then, the article reviews some of the most popular learning management systems available today and some of the most useful online resources in the areas of Mathematics and Statistics. After that, some long-term experiences regarding the teaching of online courses in those areas at the Open University of Catalonia are discussed. Finally, the article presents the results of a large-scale survey performed in Spain that aims to reflect instructors' opinions and feelings about potential benefits and challenges of teaching mathematics online, as well as the role of emergent technologies in the context of the European Area of Higher Education. Therefore, this article contributes to the existing literature as an additional reference point, one based on our long-term experience in a large-scale online environment, for discussions involving mathematical e-learning.

Large-Scale Fluorescence Calcium-Imaging Methods for Studies of Long-Term Memory in Behaving Mammals

PubMed Central

Jercog, Pablo; Rogerson, Thomas; Schnitzer, Mark J.

2016-01-01

During long-term memory formation, cellular and molecular processes reshape how individual neurons respond to specific patterns of synaptic input. It remains poorly understood how such changes impact information processing across networks of mammalian neurons. To observe how networks encode, store, and retrieve information, neuroscientists must track the dynamics of large ensembles of individual cells in behaving animals, over timescales commensurate with long-term memory. Fluorescence Ca2+-imaging techniques can monitor hundreds of neurons in behaving mice, opening exciting avenues for studies of learning and memory at the network level. Genetically encoded Ca2+ indicators allow neurons to be targeted by genetic type or connectivity. Chronic animal preparations permit repeated imaging of neural Ca2+ dynamics over multiple weeks. Together, these capabilities should enable unprecedented analyses of how ensemble neural codes evolve throughout memory processing and provide new insights into how memories are organized in the brain. PMID:27048190

The long-term demographic role of community-based family planning in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Phillips, J F; Hossain, M B; Arends-Kuenning, M

1996-01-01

Experimental studies demonstrating the effectiveness of nonclinical distribution of contraceptives are typically conducted in settings where contraceptive use is low and unmet need is extensive. Determining the long-term role of active outreach programs after initial demand is met represents an increasingly important policy issue in Asia, where contraceptive prevalence is high and fixed service points are conveniently available. This article examines the long-term rationale for household family planning in Bangladesh-where growing use of contraceptives, rapid fertility decline, and normative change in reproductive preferences are in progress, bringing into question the rationale for large-scale deployment of paid outreach workers. Longitudinal data are analyzed that record outreach encounters and contraceptive use dynamics in a large rural population. Findings demonstrate that outreach has a continuing impact on program effectiveness, even after a decade of household visitation. The policy implications of this finding are reviewed.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less

A hierarchical spatial framework for forest landscape planning.

Treesearch

Pete Bettinger; Marie Lennette; K. Norman Johnson; Thomas A. Spies

2005-01-01

A hierarchical spatial framework for large-scale, long-term forest landscape planning is presented along with example policy analyses for a 560,000 ha area of the Oregon Coast Range. The modeling framework suggests utilizing the detail provided by satellite imagery to track forest vegetation condition and for representation of fine-scale features, such as riparian...

Challenges to Progress in Studies of Climate-Tectonic-Erosion Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burbank, D. W.

2016-12-01

Attempts to unravel the relative importance of climate and tectonics in modulating topography and erosion should compare relevant data sets at comparable temporal and spatial scales. Given that such data are uncommonly available, how can we compare diverse data sets in a robust fashion? Many erosion-rate studies rely on detrital cosmogenic nuclides. What time scales can such data address, and what landscape conditions do they require to provide accurate representations of long-term erosion rates? To what extent do large-scale, but infrequent erosional events impact long-term rates? Commonly, long-term erosion rates are deduced from thermochronologic data. What types of data are needed to test for consistency of rates across a given interval or change in rates through time? Similarly, spatial and temporal variability in precipitation or tectonics requires averaging across appropriate scales. How are such data obtained in deforming mountain belts, and how do we assess their reliability? This study describes the character and temporal duration of key variables that are needed to examine climate-tectonic-erosion interactions, explores the strengths and weaknesses of several study areas, and suggests the types of data requirements that will underpin enlightening "tests" of hypotheses related to the mutual impacts of climate, tectonics, and erosion.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Challenges and Opportunities of Long-Term Continuous Stream Metabolism Measurements at the National Ecological Observatory Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, K. J.; Lunch, C. K.; Baxter, C.; Hall, R.; Holtgrieve, G. W.; Roberts, B. J.; Marcarelli, A. M.; Tank, J. L.

2013-12-01

Recent advances in dissolved oxygen sensing and modeling have made continuous measurements of whole-stream metabolism relatively easy to make, allowing ecologists to quantify and evaluate stream ecosystem health at expanded temporal and spatial scales. Long-term monitoring of continuous stream metabolism will enable a better understanding of the integrated and complex effects of anthropogenic change (e.g., land-use, climate, atmospheric deposition, invasive species, etc.) on stream ecosystem function. In addition to their value in the particular streams measured, information derived from long-term data will improve the ability to extrapolate from shorter-term data. With the need to better understand drivers and responses of whole-stream metabolism come difficulties in interpreting the results. Long-term trends will encompass physical changes in stream morphology and flow regime (e.g., variable flow conditions and changes in channel structure) combined with changes in biota. Additionally long-term data sets will require an organized database structure, careful quantification of errors and uncertainties, as well as propagation of error as a result of the calculation of metabolism metrics. Parsing of continuous data and the choice of modeling approaches can also have a large influence on results and on error estimation. The two main modeling challenges include 1) obtaining unbiased, low-error daily estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), and 2) interpreting GPP and ER measurements over extended time periods. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), in partnership with academic and government scientists, has begun to tackle several of these challenges as it prepares for the collection and calculation of 30 years of continuous whole-stream metabolism data. NEON is a national-scale research platform that will use consistent procedures and protocols to standardize measurements across the United States, providing long-term, high-quality, open-access data from a connected network to address large-scale change. NEON infrastructure will support 36 aquatic sites across 19 ecoclimatic domains. Sites include core sites, which remain for 30 years, and relocatable sites, which move to capture regional gradients. NEON will measure continuous whole-stream metabolism in conjunction with aquatic, terrestrial and airborne observations, allowing researchers to link stream ecosystem function with landscape and climatic drivers encompassing short to long time periods (i.e., decades).

Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Treesearch

Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

EVALUATION PLAN FOR TWO LARGE-SCALE LANDFILL BIOREACTOR TECHNOLOGIES

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract - Waste Management, Inc., is operating two long-term bioreactor studies at the Outer Loop Landfill in Louisville, KY, including facultative landfill bioreactor and staged aerobic-anaerobic landfill bioreactor demonstrations. A Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) was p...

Insertion Sequence-Caused Large Scale-Rearrangements in the Genome of Escherichia coli

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-18

rearrangements in the genome of Escherichia coli Heewook Lee1,2, Thomas G. Doak3,4, Ellen Popodi3, Patricia L. Foster3 and Haixu Tang1,* 1School of...and excisions of IS elements and recombi- nation between homologous IS elements identified in a large collection of Escherichia coli mutation accu...scale rear- rangements arose in the Escherichia coli genome during a long-term evolution experiment in a recent study (8). Com- bining WGSS with

Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

2016-01-01

Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

Atmospheric Oxygen Inhibits Growth and Differentiation of Marrow-Derived Mouse Mesenchymal Stem Cells via a p53 Dependent Mechanism: Implications for Long-Term Culture Expansion

PubMed Central

Boregowda, Siddaraju; Krishnappa, Veena; Chambers, Jeremy; LoGrasso, Phillip V.; Lai, Wen-Tzu; Ortiz, Luis A.; Phinney, Donald G.

2013-01-01

Large scale expansion of human mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) is routinely performed for clinical therapy. In contrast, developing protocols for large scale expansion of primary mouse MSCs has been more difficult due to unique aspects of rodent biology. Currently, established methods to isolate mouse MSCs select for rapidly dividing subpopulations that emerge from bone marrow cultures following long-term (months) expansion in atmospheric oxygen. Herein, we demonstrate that exposure to atmospheric oxygen rapidly induced p53, TOP2A and BAX expression and mitochondrial ROS generation in primary mouse MSCs resulting in oxidative stress, reduced cell viability and inhibition of cell proliferation. Alternatively, procurement and culture in 5% oxygen supported more prolific expansion of the CD45−ve/CD44+ve cell fraction in marrow, produced increased MSC yields following immuno-depletion, and supported sustained MSC growth resulting in a 2300-fold increase in cumulative cell yield by 4th passage. MSCs cultured in 5% oxygen also exhibited enhanced tri-lineage differentiation. The oxygen-induced stress response was dependent upon p53 since siRNA mediated knockdown of p53 in wild type cells or exposure of p53−/− MSCs to atmospheric oxygen failed to induce ROS generation, reduce viability, or arrest cell growth. These data indicate that long-term culture expansion of mouse MSCs in atmospheric oxygen selects for clones with absent or impaired p53 function, which allows cells to escape oxygen-induced growth inhibition. In contrast, expansion in 5% oxygen generates large numbers of primary mouse MSCs that retain sensitivity to atmospheric oxygen, and therefore a functional p53 protein, even after long-term expansion in vitro. PMID:22367737

Long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean surface layer (by space data)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevyrnogov, A.; Vysotskaya, G.

To preserve the biosphere and to use it efficiently, it is necessary to gain a deep insight into the dynamics of the primary production process on our planet. Variability of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean is one of the most important components of this process. These investigations are, however, very labor-consuming, because of the difficulties related to the accessibility of the water surface and its large size. In this work long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration in the surface layer of the ocean have been analyzed on the basis of the CZCS data for 7.5 years from 1979 to 1986 and the SeaWiFS data from 1997 to 2004. It has been shown that the average chlorophyll concentration calculated in all investigated areas varies moderately. However, when analyzing spatially local trends, the areas have been detected that have significant rise and fall of chlorophyll concentrations. Some interesting features of the long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration have been found. The opposite directions of long-term trends (essential increase or decrease) cannot be explained only by large-scale hydrological phenomena in the ocean (currents, upwellings, etc.). The measured chlorophyll concentration results from the balance between production and destruction processes. Which process dominates is determined by various hydrophysical, hydrobiological, and climatic processes, leading to sharp rises or falls of the concentration. It is important to estimate the scale of the areas in which this or that process dominates. Therefore, the study addresses not only the dynamics of the mean value but also the dynamics of the areas in which the dominance of certain factors has led to a sharp fall or rise in chlorophyll concentration. Thus, the obtained results can be used to estimate long-term changes in the ocean biota.

RECENT ADVANCES IN HIGH TEMPERATURE ELECTROLYSIS AT IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY: STACK TESTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

X, Zhang; J. E. O'Brien; R. C. O'Brien

2012-07-01

High temperature steam electrolysis is a promising technology for efficient sustainable large-scale hydrogen production. Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) are able to utilize high temperature heat and electric power from advanced high-temperature nuclear reactors or renewable sources to generate carbon-free hydrogen at large scale. However, long term durability of SOECs needs to be improved significantly before commercialization of this technology. A degradation rate of 1%/khr or lower is proposed as a threshold value for commercialization of this technology. Solid oxide electrolysis stack tests have been conducted at Idaho National Laboratory to demonstrate recent improvements in long-term durability of SOECs. Electrolytesupportedmore » and electrode-supported SOEC stacks were provided by Ceramatec Inc., Materials and Systems Research Inc. (MSRI), and Saint Gobain Advanced Materials (St. Gobain), respectively for these tests. Long-term durability tests were generally operated for a duration of 1000 hours or more. Stack tests based on technology developed at Ceramatec and MSRI have shown significant improvement in durability in the electrolysis mode. Long-term degradation rates of 3.2%/khr and 4.6%/khr were observed for MSRI and Ceramatec stacks, respectively. One recent Ceramatec stack even showed negative degradation (performance improvement) over 1900 hours of operation. A three-cell short stack provided by St. Gobain, however, showed rapid degradation in the electrolysis mode. Improvements on electrode materials, interconnect coatings, and electrolyteelectrode interface microstructures contribute to better durability of SOEC stacks.« less

Mountain erosion over 10 yr, 10 k.y., and 10 m.y. time scales

Treesearch

James W. Kirchner; Robert C. Finkel; Clifford S. Riebe; Darryl E. Granger; James L. Clayton; John G. King; Walter F. Megahan

2001-01-01

We used cosmogenic 10Be to measure erosion rates over 10 k.y. time scales at 32 Idaho mountain catchments, ranging from small experimental watersheds (0.2 km2) to large river basins (35 000 km2). These long-term sediment yields are, on average, 17 times higher than stream sediment fluxes measured over...

Large-scale climatic phenomena drive fluctuations in macroinvertebrate assemblages in lowland tropical streams, Costa Rica: The importance of ENSO events in determining long-term (15y) patterns

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Alonso; Pringle, Catherine M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how environmental variables influence the distribution and density of organisms over relatively long temporal scales is a central question in ecology given increased climatic variability (e.g., precipitation, ENSO events). The primary goal of our study was to evaluate long-term (15y time span) patterns of climate, as well as environmental parameters in two Neotropical streams in lowland Costa Rica, to assess potential effects on aquatic macroinvertebrates. We also examined the relative effects of an 8y whole-stream P-enrichment experiment on macroinvertebrate assemblages against the backdrop of this long-term study. Climate, environmental variables and macroinvertebrate samples were measured monthly for 7y and then quarterly for an additional 8y in each stream. Temporal patterns in climatic and environmental variables showed high variability over time, without clear inter-annual or intra-annual patterns. Macroinvertebrate richness and abundance decreased with increasing discharge and was positively related to the number of days since the last high discharge event. Findings show that fluctuations in stream physicochemistry and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure are ultimately the result of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as ENSO events, while the 8y P-enrichment did not appear to affect macroinvertebrates. Our study demonstrates that Neotropical lowland streams are highly dynamic and not as stable as is commonly presumed, with high intra- and inter-annual variability in environmental parameters that change the structure and composition of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages. PMID:29420548

Climate Induced Changes in Global-Scale Litter Decomposition and Long-term Relationships with Net Primary Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silver, W. L.; Smith, W. K.; Parton, W. J.; Wieder, W. R.; DelGrosso, S.

2016-12-01

Surface litter decomposition represents the largest annual carbon (C) flux to the atmosphere from terrestrial ecosystems (Esser et al. 1982). Using broad-scale long-term datasets we show that litter decomposition rates are largely predicted by a climate-decomposition index (CDI) at a global scale, and use CDI to estimate patterns in litter decomposition over the 110 years from 1901-2011. There were rapid changes in CDI over the last 30 y of the record amounting to a 4.3% increase globally. Boreal forests (+13.9%), tundra (+12.2%), savannas (+5.3%), and temperate (+2.4%) and tropical (+2.1%) forests all experienced accelerated decomposition. During the same period, most biomes experienced corresponding increases in a primary production index (PPI) estimated from an ensemble of long-term, observation-based productivity indices. The percent increase in PPI was only half that of decomposition globally. Tropical forests and savannas showed no increase in PPI to offset greater decomposition rates. Temperature-limited ecosystems (i.e., tundra, boreal, and temperate forests) showed the greatest differences between CDI and PPI, highlighting potentially large decoupling of C fluxes in these biomes. Precipitation and actual evapotranspiration were the best climate predictors of CDI at a global scale, while PPI varied consistently with actual evapotranspiration. As expected, temperature was the best predictor of PPI across temperature limited ecosystems. Our results show that climate change could be leading to a decoupling of C uptake and losses, potentially resulting in lower C storage in northern latitudes, temperate and tropical forests, and savannas.

Conformal Fermi Coordinates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Liang; Pajer, Enrico; Schmidt, Fabian, E-mail: ldai@ias.edu, E-mail: Enrico.pajer@gmail.com, E-mail: fabians@mpa-garching.mpg.de

Fermi Normal Coordinates (FNC) are a useful frame for isolating the locally observable, physical effects of a long-wavelength spacetime perturbation. Their cosmological application, however, is hampered by the fact that they are only valid on scales much smaller than the horizon. We introduce a generalization that we call Conformal Fermi Coordinates (CFC). CFC preserve all the advantages of FNC, but in addition are valid outside the horizon. They allow us to calculate the coupling of long- and short-wavelength modes on all scales larger than the sound horizon of the cosmological fluid, starting from the epoch of inflation until today, bymore » removing the complications of the second order Einstein equations to a large extent, and eliminating all gauge ambiguities. As an application, we present a calculation of the effect of long-wavelength tensor modes on small scale density fluctuations. We recover previous results, but clarify the physical content of the individual contributions in terms of locally measurable effects and ''projection'' terms.« less

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

Correlated motion of protein subdomains and large-scale conformational flexibility of RecA protein filament

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Garmay; A, Shvetsov; D, Karelov; D, Lebedev; A, Radulescu; M, Petukhov; V, Isaev-Ivanov

2012-02-01

Based on X-ray crystallographic data available at Protein Data Bank, we have built molecular dynamics (MD) models of homologous recombinases RecA from E. coli and D. radiodurans. Functional form of RecA enzyme, which is known to be a long helical filament, was approximated by a trimer, simulated in periodic water box. The MD trajectories were analyzed in terms of large-scale conformational motions that could be detectable by neutron and X-ray scattering techniques. The analysis revealed that large-scale RecA monomer dynamics can be described in terms of relative motions of 7 subdomains. Motion of C-terminal domain was the major contributor to the overall dynamics of protein. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the MD trajectories in the atom coordinate space showed that rotation of C-domain is correlated with the conformational changes in the central domain and N-terminal domain, that forms the monomer-monomer interface. Thus, even though C-terminal domain is relatively far from the interface, its orientation is correlated with large-scale filament conformation. PCA of the trajectories in the main chain dihedral angle coordinate space implicates a co-existence of a several different large-scale conformations of the modeled trimer. In order to clarify the relationship of independent domain orientation with large-scale filament conformation, we have performed analysis of independent domain motion and its implications on the filament geometry.

Improved Durability of SOEC Stacks for High Temperature Electrolysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

James E. O'Brien; Robert C. O'Brien; Xiaoyu Zhang

2013-01-01

High temperature steam electrolysis is a promising technology for efficient and sustainable large-scale hydrogen production. Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) are able to utilize high temperature heat and electric power from advanced high-temperature nuclear reactors or renewable sources to generate carbon-free hydrogen at large scale. However, long term durability of SOECs needs to be improved significantly before commercialization of this technology can be realized. A degradation rate of 1%/khr or lower is proposed as a threshold value for commercialization of this technology. Solid oxide electrolysis stack tests have been conducted at Idaho National Laboratory to demonstrate recent improvements in long-termmore » durability of SOECs. Electrolyte-supported and electrode-supported SOEC stacks were provided by Ceramatec Inc. and Materials and Systems Research Inc. (MSRI), respectively, for these tests. Long-term durability tests were generally operated for a duration of 1000 hours or more. Stack tests based on technologies developed at Ceramatec and MSRI have shown significant improvement in durability in the electrolysis mode. Long-term degradation rates of 3.2%/khr and 4.6%/khr were observed for MSRI and Ceramatec stacks, espectively. One recent Ceramatec stack even showed negative degradation (performance improvement) over 1900 hours of operation. Optimization of electrode materials, interconnect coatings, and electrolyte-electrode interface microstructures contribute to better durability of SOEC stacks.« less

The relationship of large fire occurrence with drought and fire danger indices in the western USA, 1984-2008: The role of temporal scale

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; John T. Abatzoglou; Isaac C. Grenfell; Anna E. Klene; Faith Ann Heinsch

2013-01-01

The relationship between large fire occurrence and drought has important implications for fire prediction under current and future climates. This study’s primary objective was to evaluate correlations between drought and fire-danger- rating indices representing short- and long-term drought, to determine which had the strongest relationships with large fire occurrence...

Optimizing Voltage Control for Large-Scale Solar - Text version | Energy

Science.gov Websites

system software in the loop during simulations, both for long term studies, as well as in some hardware in the loop studies, where we had actual devices interacting with this. So this is a fairly unique

Long-distance travel behaviours accelerate and aggravate the large-scale spatial spreading of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xu, Zhijing; Zu, Zhenghu; Zheng, Tao; Zhang, Wendou; Xu, Qing; Liu, Jinjie

2014-01-01

The study analyses the role of long-distance travel behaviours on the large-scale spatial spreading of directly transmitted infectious diseases, focusing on two different travel types in terms of the travellers travelling to a specific group or not. For this purpose, we have formulated and analysed a metapopulation model in which the individuals in each subpopulation are organised into a scale-free contact network. The long-distance travellers between the subpopulations will temporarily change the network structure of the destination subpopulation through the "merging effects (MEs)," which indicates that the travellers will be regarded as either connected components or isolated nodes in the contact network. The results show that the presence of the MEs has constantly accelerated the transmission of the diseases and aggravated the outbreaks compared to the scenario in which the diversity of the long-distance travel types is arbitrarily discarded. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are relatively constant regarding a wide range variation of several model parameters. Our study has highlighted several important causes which could significantly affect the spatiotemporal disease dynamics neglected by the present studies.

Pre-treatment analysis of woody vegetation composition and structure on the hardwood ecosystem experiment research units

Treesearch

Michael R. Saunders; Justin E. Arseneault

2013-01-01

In long-term, large-scale forest management studies, documentation of pre-treatment differences among and variability within experimental units is critical for drawing the proper inferences from imposed treatments. We compared pre-treatment overstory and large shrub communities (diameters at breast height >1.5 cm) for the 9 research cores with the Hardwood Ecosystem...

Historical carbonyl sulfide observations support long-term growth in atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, J. E.; Hilton, T. W.; Laine, M.; Wang, Y.; Berry, J. A.; Hannigan, J. W.

2017-12-01

The seasonal amplitude in atmospheric CO2 has grown over the last 50 years, pointing to a fundamental shift in the regional carbon cycle. Theoretical drivers from the amplitude growth include changes in terrestrial photosynthesis and heterotrophic respiration. However, large-scale, measurement-based evidence for these mechanisms is unclear. Here we analyze historical measurements of carbonyl sulfide which also show long-term growth in seasonal amplitude. We use this new trend to interpret the underlying mechanisms of CO2 amplitude growth and to validate global ecosystem models.

Identifying transit corridors for elephant using a long time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittiglio, Claudia; Skidmore, Andrew K.; van Gils, Hein A. M. J.; Prins, Herbert H. T.

2012-02-01

The role of corridors in mitigating the effects of landscape fragmentation on biodiversity is controversial. Recent studies have highlighted the need for new approaches in corridor design using long-term datasets. We present a method to identify transit corridors for elephant at a population scale over a large area and an extended period of time using long-term aerial surveys. We investigated environmental and anthropogenic factors directly and indirectly related to the wet versus dry season distribution of elephant and its transit corridors. Four environmental variables predicted the presence of elephant at the landscape scale in both seasons: distance from permanent water, protected areas and settlements and vegetation structure. Path analysis revealed that altitude and monthly average NDVI, and distance from temporary water had a significant indirect effect on elephant distribution at local scale in dry and wet seasons respectively. Five transit corridors connecting Tarangire National Park and the northern as well as south-eastern wet season dispersal areas were identified and matched the wildlife migration routes described in the 1960s. The corridors are stable over the decades, providing landscape connectivity for elephant. Our approach yielded insights how advanced spatial analysis can be integrated with biological data available from long-term datasets to identify actual transit corridors and predictors of species distribution.

Volunteer provision of long-term care for older people in Thailand and Costa Rica.

PubMed

Lloyd-Sherlock, Peter; Pot, Anne Margriet; Sasat, Siriphan; Morales-Martinez, Fernando

2017-11-01

Demand for long-term care services for older people is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries. Countries need to establish national long-term care systems that are sustainable and equitable. The Governments of Costa Rica and Thailand have implemented broadly comparable interventions to deploy volunteers in long-term home care. Both countries trained older volunteers from local communities to make home visits to impoverished and vulnerable older people and to facilitate access to health services and other social services. Costa Rica and Thailand are upper-middle-income countries with strong traditions of community-based health services that they are now extending into long-term care for older people. Between 2003 and 2013 Thailand's programme trained over 51 000 volunteers, reaching almost 800 000 older people. Between 2010 and 2016 Costa Rica established 50 community care networks, serving around 10 000 people and involving over 5000 volunteers. Despite some evidence of benefits to the physical and mental health of older people and greater uptake of other services, a large burden of unmet care needs and signs of a growth of unregulated private services still exist. There is scope for low- and middle-income countries to develop large-scale networks of community-based long-term care volunteers. The capacity of volunteers to enhance the quality of life of clients is affected by the local availability of care services. Volunteer care networks should be complemented by other initiatives, including training about health in later life for volunteers, and investment in community long-term care services.

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Peatland Carbon Cycling and Implications for Interpreting Responses of an Ecosystem-Scale Warming Experiment

Treesearch

Natalie A. Griffiths; Paul J. Hanson; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Colleen M. Iversen; Anna M. Jensen; Avni Malhotra; Karis J. McFarlane; Richard J. Norby; Khachik Sargsyan; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Xiaoying Shi; Anthony P. Walker; Eric J. Ward; Jeffrey M. Warren; David J. Weston

2017-01-01

We are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial...

Forecasting landscape-scale, cumulative effects of forest management on vegetation and wildlife habitat: a case study of issues, limitations, and opportunities

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Zhaofei F. Fan

2008-01-01

Forest landscape disturbance and succession models have become practical tools for large-scale, long-term analyses of the cumulative effects of forest management on real landscapes. They can provide essential information in a spatial context to address management and policy issues related to forest planning, wildlife habitat quality, timber harvesting, fire effects,...

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

Analysis of CO2 trapping capacities and long-term migration for geological formations in the Norwegian North Sea using MRST-co2lab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Møll Nilsen, Halvor; Lie, Knut-Andreas; Andersen, Odd

2015-06-01

MRST-co2lab is a collection of open-source computational tools for modeling large-scale and long-time migration of CO2 in conductive aquifers, combining ideas from basin modeling, computational geometry, hydrology, and reservoir simulation. Herein, we employ the methods of MRST-co2lab to study long-term CO2 storage on the scale of hundreds of megatonnes. We consider public data sets of two aquifers from the Norwegian North Sea and use geometrical methods for identifying structural traps, percolation-type methods for identifying potential spill paths, and vertical-equilibrium methods for efficient simulation of structural, residual, and solubility trapping in a thousand-year perspective. In particular, we investigate how data resolution affects estimates of storage capacity and discuss workflows for identifying good injection sites and optimizing injection strategies.

Unsupervised Discovery of Demixed, Low-Dimensional Neural Dynamics across Multiple Timescales through Tensor Component Analysis.

PubMed

Williams, Alex H; Kim, Tony Hyun; Wang, Forea; Vyas, Saurabh; Ryu, Stephen I; Shenoy, Krishna V; Schnitzer, Mark; Kolda, Tamara G; Ganguli, Surya

2018-06-27

Perceptions, thoughts, and actions unfold over millisecond timescales, while learned behaviors can require many days to mature. While recent experimental advances enable large-scale and long-term neural recordings with high temporal fidelity, it remains a formidable challenge to extract unbiased and interpretable descriptions of how rapid single-trial circuit dynamics change slowly over many trials to mediate learning. We demonstrate a simple tensor component analysis (TCA) can meet this challenge by extracting three interconnected, low-dimensional descriptions of neural data: neuron factors, reflecting cell assemblies; temporal factors, reflecting rapid circuit dynamics mediating perceptions, thoughts, and actions within each trial; and trial factors, describing both long-term learning and trial-to-trial changes in cognitive state. We demonstrate the broad applicability of TCA by revealing insights into diverse datasets derived from artificial neural networks, large-scale calcium imaging of rodent prefrontal cortex during maze navigation, and multielectrode recordings of macaque motor cortex during brain machine interface learning. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring Low-Amplitude, Long-Duration Deformational Transients on the Cascadia Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuyen, C.; Schmidt, D. A.

2017-12-01

The absence of long-term slow slip events (SSEs) in Cascadia is enigmatic on account of the diverse group of subduction zone systems that do experience long-term SSEs. In particular, southwest Japan, Alaska, New Zealand and Mexico have observed long-term SSEs, with some of the larger events exhibiting centimeter-scale surface displacements over the course of multiple years. The conditions that encourage long-term slow slip are not well established due to the variability in thermal parameter and plate dip amongst subduction zones that host long-term events. The Cascadia Subduction Zone likely has the capacity to host long-term SSEs, and the lack of such events motivates further exploration of the observational data. In order to search for the existence of long-duration transients in surface displacements, we examine Cascadia GPS time series from PANGA and PBO to determine whether or not Cascadia has hosted a long-term slow slip event in the past 20 years. A careful review of the time series does not reveal any large-scale multi-year transients. In order to more clearly recognize possible small amplitude long-term SSEs in Cascadia, the GPS time series are reduced with two separate methods. The first method involves manually removing (1) continental water loading terms, (2) transient displacements of known short-term SSEs, and (3) common mode signals that span the network. The second method utilizes a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure (STL) to extract a long-term trend from the GPS time-series. Manual inspection of both of these products reveals intriguing long-term changes in the longitudinal component of several GPS stations in central Cascadia. To determine whether these shifts could be due to long-term slow slip, we invert the reduced surface displacement time series for fault slip using a principle component analysis-based inversion method. We also utilize forward fault models of various synthetic long-term SSEs to better understand how these events may appear in the time series for a range of magnitudes and durations. Results from this research have direct implications for the possible slip modes in Cascadia and how variations in slip over time can impact stress and strain accumulations along the margin.

Cover design for radioactive and AMD-producing mine waste in the Ronneburg area, eastern Thuringia.

PubMed

Gatzweiler, R; Jahn, S; Neubert, G; Paul, M

2001-01-01

At the former uranium mining site of Ronneburg, large scale underground and open pit mining for nearly 40 years resulted in a production of about 113,000 tonnes of uranium and about 200 million cubic metres of mine waste. In their present state, these materials cause risks to human health and strong environmental impacts and therefore demand remedial action. The remediation options available are relocation of mine spoil into the open pit and on site remediation by landscaping/contouring, placement of a cover and revegetation. A suitable vegetated cover system combined with a surface water drainage system provides long-term stability against erosion and reduces acid generation thereby meeting the main remediation objectives which are long-term reduction of radiological exposure and contaminant emissions and recultivation. The design of the cover system includes the evaluation of geotechnical, radiological, hydrological, geochemical and ecological criteria and models. The optimized overall model for the cover system has to comply with general conditions as, e.g. economic efficiency, public acceptance and sustainability. Most critical elements for the long-term performance of the cover system designed for the Beerwalde dump are the barrier system and its long-term integrity and a largely self-sustainable vegetation.

Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird

PubMed Central

Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

2014-01-01

The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size. PMID:24713824

Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird.

PubMed

Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

2014-09-01

The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size.

Operational studies on the control of Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis in Ecuador.

PubMed

Cruz, M; Davis, A; Dixon, H; Pawlowski, Z S; Proano, J

1989-01-01

A large-scale study in Loja and El Oro Provinces, Ecuador, demonstrated that population-based treatment of human taeniasis with a low dose of praziquantel is feasible and effective for the short-term control of transmission of Taenia solium in hyperendemic areas. Chemotherapeutic intervention also effectively promoted local preventive measures and contributed greatly to the elaboration of a long-term control programme.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long-term life-history data in seven species.

PubMed

Campos, Fernando A; Morris, William F; Alberts, Susan C; Altmann, Jeanne; Brockman, Diane K; Cords, Marina; Pusey, Anne; Stoinski, Tara S; Strier, Karen B; Fedigan, Linda M

2017-11-01

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29-52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks

PubMed Central

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-01-01

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction. PMID:28672867

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks.

PubMed

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-06-26

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.

Quality of life of residents with dementia in long-term care settings in the Netherlands and Belgium: design of a longitudinal comparative study in traditional nursing homes and small-scale living facilities

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The increase in the number of people with dementia will lead to greater demand for residential care. Currently, large nursing homes are trying to transform their traditional care for residents with dementia to a more home-like approach, by developing small-scale living facilities. It is often assumed that small-scale living will improve the quality of life of residents with dementia. However, little scientific evidence is currently available to test this. The following research question is addressed in this study: Which (combination of) changes in elements affects (different dimensions of) the quality of life of elderly residents with dementia in long-term care settings over the course of one year? Methods/design A longitudinal comparative study in traditional and small-scale long-term care settings, which follows a quasi-experimental design, will be carried out in Belgium and the Netherlands. To answer the research question, a model has been developed which incorporates relevant elements influencing quality of life in long-term care settings. Validated instruments will be used to evaluate the role of these elements, divided into environmental characteristics (country, type of ward, group size and nursing staff); basic personal characteristics (age, sex, cognitive decline, weight and activities of daily living); behavioural characteristics (behavioural problems and depression); behavioural interventions (use of restraints and use of psychotropic medication); and social interaction (social engagement and visiting frequency of relatives). The main outcome measure for residents in the model is quality of life. Data are collected at baseline, after six and twelve months, from residents living in either small-scale or traditional care settings. Discussion The results of this study will provide an insight into the determinants of quality of life for people with dementia living in traditional and small-scale long-term care settings in Belgium and the Netherlands. Possible relevant strengths and weaknesses of the study are discussed in this article. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN23772945 PMID:21539731

The Problem of Late ART initiation in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Transient Aspect of Scale-up or a Long-term Phenomenon?

PubMed Central

Lahuerta, Maria; Ue, Frances; Hoffman, Susie; Elul, Batya; Kulkarni, Sarah Gorrell; Wu, Yingfeng; Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha, Harriet; Remien, Robert H.; Sadr, Wafaa El; Nash, Denis

2013-01-01

Efforts to scale-up HIV care and treatment have been successful at initiating large numbers of patients onto antiretroviral therapy (ART), although persistent challenges remain to optimizing scale-up effectiveness in both resource-rich and resource-limited settings. Among the most important are very high rates of ART initiation in the advanced stages of HIV disease, which in turn drive morbidity, mortality, and onward transmission of HIV. With a focus on sub-Saharan Africa, this review article presents a conceptual framework for a broader discussion of the persistent problem of late ART initiation, including a need for more focus on the upstream precursors (late HIV diagnosis and late enrollment into HIV care) and their determinants. Without additional research and identification of multilevel interventions that successfully promote earlier initiation of ART, the problem of late ART initiation will persist, significantly undermining the long-term impact of HIV care scale-up on reducing mortality and controlling the HIV epidemic. PMID:23377739

Viscous decay of nonlinear oscillations of a spherical bubble at large Reynolds number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. R.; Wang, Q. X.

2017-08-01

The long-time viscous decay of large-amplitude bubble oscillations is considered in an incompressible Newtonian fluid, based on the Rayleigh-Plesset equation. At large Reynolds numbers, this is a multi-scaled problem with a short time scale associated with inertial oscillation and a long time scale associated with viscous damping. A multi-scaled perturbation method is thus employed to solve the problem. The leading-order analytical solution of the bubble radius history is obtained to the Rayleigh-Plesset equation in a closed form including both viscous and surface tension effects. Some important formulae are derived including the following: the average energy loss rate of the bubble system during each cycle of oscillation, an explicit formula for the dependence of the oscillation frequency on the energy, and an implicit formula for the amplitude envelope of the bubble radius as a function of the energy. Our theory shows that the energy of the bubble system and the frequency of oscillation do not change on the inertial time scale at leading order, the energy loss rate on the long viscous time scale being inversely proportional to the Reynolds number. These asymptotic predictions remain valid during each cycle of oscillation whether or not compressibility effects are significant. A systematic parametric analysis is carried out using the above formula for the energy of the bubble system, frequency of oscillation, and minimum/maximum bubble radii in terms of the Reynolds number, the dimensionless initial pressure of the bubble gases, and the Weber number. Our results show that the frequency and the decay rate have substantial variations over the lifetime of a decaying oscillation. The results also reveal that large-amplitude bubble oscillations are very sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions through large changes in the phase shift.

Rangeland monitoring reveals long-term plant responses to precipitation and grazing at the landscape scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Duniway, Michael C.; Johanson, Jamin K.

2015-01-01

Managers of rangeland ecosystems require methods to track the condition of natural resources over large areas and long periods of time as they confront climate change and land use intensification. We demonstrate how rangeland monitoring results can be synthesized using ecological site concepts to understand how climate, site factors, and management actions affect long-term vegetation dynamics at the landscape-scale. Forty-six years of rangeland monitoring conducted by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) on the Colorado Plateau reveals variable responses of plant species cover to cool-season precipitation, land type (ecological site groups), and grazing intensity. Dominant C3 perennial grasses (Achnatherum hymenoides, Hesperostipa comata), which are essential to support wildlife and livestock on the Colorado Plateau, had responses to cool-season precipitation that were at least twice as large as the dominant C4 perennial grass (Pleuraphis jamesii) and woody vegetation. However, these C3 perennial grass responses to precipitation were reduced by nearly one-third on grassland ecological sites with fine- rather than coarse-textured soils, and there were no detectable C3 perennial grass responses to precipitation on ecological sites dominated by a dense-growing shrub, Coleogyne ramosissima. Heavy grazing intensity further reduced the responses of C3 perennial grasses to cool-season precipitation on ecological sites with coarse-textured soils and surprisingly reduced the responses of shrubs as well. By using ecological site groups to assess rangeland condition, we were able to improve our understanding of the long-term relationships between vegetation change and climate, land use, and site characteristics, which has important implications for developing landscape-scale monitoring strategies.

Long-term drought sensitivity of trees in second-growth forests in a humid region

Treesearch

Neil Pederson; Kacie Tackett; Ryan W. McEwan; Stacy Clark; Adrienne Cooper; Glade Brosi; Ray Eaton; R. Drew Stockwell

2012-01-01

Classical field methods of reconstructing drought using tree rings in humid, temperate regions typically target old trees from drought-prone sites. This approach limits investigators to a handful of species and excludes large amounts of data that might be useful, especially for coverage gaps in large-scale networks. By sampling in more “typical” forests, network...

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Genetic Drift, Not Life History or RNAi, Determine Long-Term Evolution of Transposable Elements

PubMed Central

Szitenberg, Amir; Cha, Soyeon; Opperman, Charles H.; Bird, David M.; Blaxter, Mark L.; Lunt, David H.

2016-01-01

Abstract Transposable elements (TEs) are a major source of genome variation across the branches of life. Although TEs may play an adaptive role in their host’s genome, they are more often deleterious, and purifying selection is an important factor controlling their genomic loads. In contrast, life history, mating system, GC content, and RNAi pathways have been suggested to account for the disparity of TE loads in different species. Previous studies of fungal, plant, and animal genomes have reported conflicting results regarding the direction in which these genomic features drive TE evolution. Many of these studies have had limited power, however, because they studied taxonomically narrow systems, comparing only a limited number of phylogenetically independent contrasts, and did not address long-term effects on TE evolution. Here, we test the long-term determinants of TE evolution by comparing 42 nematode genomes spanning over 500 million years of diversification. This analysis includes numerous transitions between life history states, and RNAi pathways, and evaluates if these forces are sufficiently persistent to affect the long-term evolution of TE loads in eukaryotic genomes. Although we demonstrate statistical power to detect selection, we find no evidence that variation in these factors influence genomic TE loads across extended periods of time. In contrast, the effects of genetic drift appear to persist and control TE variation among species. We suggest that variation in the tested factors are largely inconsequential to the large differences in TE content observed between genomes, and only by these large-scale comparisons can we distinguish long-term and persistent effects from transient or random changes. PMID:27566762

Impact of Addressing Accountability Demands in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banta, Trudy W.

2010-01-01

Since 1970, quality assurance, or outcomes assessment, has provided guidance for improving pedagogy, curricula and student support programmes in the US. But evidence that student learning has improved remains elusive. Large-scale long-term studies are needed to demonstrate the effects of outcomes assessment on learning.

Maximising HIV prevention by balancing the opportunities of today with the promises of tomorrow: a modelling study.

PubMed

Smith, Jennifer A; Anderson, Sarah-Jane; Harris, Kate L; McGillen, Jessica B; Lee, Edward; Garnett, Geoff P; Hallett, Timothy B

2016-07-01

Many ways of preventing HIV infection have been proposed and more are being developed. We sought to construct a strategic approach to HIV prevention that would use limited resources to achieve the greatest possible prevention impact through the use of interventions available today and in the coming years. We developed a deterministic compartmental model of heterosexual HIV transmission in South Africa and formed assumptions about the costs and effects of a range of interventions, encompassing the further scale-up of existing interventions (promoting condom use, male circumcision, early antiretroviral therapy [ART] initiation for all [including increased HIV testing and counselling activities], and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP]), the introduction of new interventions in the medium term (offering intravaginal rings, long-acting injectable antiretroviral drugs) and long term (vaccine, broadly neutralising antibodies [bNAbs]). We examined how available resources could be allocated across these interventions to achieve maximum impact, and assessed how this would be affected by the failure of the interventions to be developed or scaled up. If all interventions are available, the optimum mix would place great emphasis on the following: scale-up of male circumcision and early ART initiation with outreach testing, as these are available immediately and assumed to be low cost and highly efficacious; intravaginal rings targeted to sex workers; and vaccines, as these can achieve a large effect if scaled up even if imperfectly efficacious. The optimum mix would rely less on longer term developments, such as long-acting antiretroviral drugs and bNAbs, unless the costs of these reduced. However, if impossible to scale up existing interventions to the extent assumed, emphasis on oral PrEP, intravaginal rings, and long-acting antiretroviral drugs would increase. The long-term effect on the epidemic is most affected by scale-up of existing interventions and the successful development of a vaccine. With current information, a strategic approach in which limited resources are used to maximise prevention impact would focus on strengthening the scale-up of existing interventions, while pursuing a workable vaccine and developing other approaches that can be used if further scale-up of existing interventions is limited. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 Smith et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Long-term outcome after arterial ischemic stroke in children and young adults.

PubMed

Goeggel Simonetti, Barbara; Cavelti, Ariane; Arnold, Marcel; Bigi, Sandra; Regényi, Mária; Mattle, Heinrich P; Gralla, Jan; Fluss, Joel; Weber, Peter; Hackenberg, Annette; Steinlin, Maja; Fischer, Urs

2015-05-12

To compare long-term outcome of children and young adults with arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) from 2 large registries. Prospective cohort study comparing functional and psychosocial long-term outcome (≥2 years after AIS) in patients who had AIS during childhood (1 month-16 years) or young adulthood (16.1-45 years) between January 2000 and December 2008, who consented to follow-up. Data of children were collected prospectively in the Swiss Neuropediatric Stroke Registry, young adults in the Bernese stroke database. Follow-up information was available in 95/116 children and 154/187 young adults. Median follow-up of survivors was 6.9 years (interquartile range 4.7-9.4) and did not differ between the groups (p = 0.122). Long-term functional outcome was similar (p = 0.896): 53 (56%) children and 84 (55%) young adults had a favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0-1). Mortality in children was 14% (13/95) and in young adults 7% (11/154) (p = 0.121) and recurrence rate did not differ (p = 0.759). Overall psychosocial impairment and quality of life did not differ, except for more behavioral problems among children (13% vs 5%, p = 0.040) and more frequent reports of an impact of AIS on everyday life among adults (27% vs 64%, p < 0.001). In a multivariate regression analysis, low Pediatric NIH Stroke Scale/NIH Stroke Scale score was the most important predictor of favorable outcome (p < 0.001). There were no major differences in long-term outcome after AIS in children and young adults for mortality, disability, quality of life, psychological, or social variables. © 2015 American Academy of Neurology.

Global weather and local butterflies: variable responses to a large-scale climate pattern along an elevational gradient.

PubMed

Pardikes, Nicholas A; Shapiro, Arthur M; Dyer, Lee A; Forister, Matthew L

2015-11-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental variation affects populations of plants and animals is an important goal for modern population biology, especially in the context of shifting climatic conditions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climatic extremes of interannual variation, and has been shown to have significant effects on the diversity and abundance of a variety of terrestrial taxa. However, studies that have investigated the influence of such large-scale climate phenomena have often been limited in spatial and taxonomic scope. We used 23 years (1988-2010) of a long-term butterfly monitoring data set to explore associations between variation in population abundance of 28 butterfly species and variation in ENSO-derived sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) across 10 sites that encompass an elevational range of 2750 m in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. Our analysis detected a positive, regional effect of increased SSTA on butterfly abundance (wetter and warmer years predict more butterfly observations), yet the influence of SSTA on butterfly abundances varied along the elevational gradient, and also differed greatly among the 28 species. Migratory species had the strongest relationships with ENSO-derived SSTA, suggesting that large-scale climate indices are particularly valuable for understanding biotic-abiotic relationships of the most mobile species. In general, however, the ecological effects of large-scale climatic factors are context dependent between sites and species. Our results illustrate the power of long-term data sets for revealing pervasive yet subtle climatic effects, but also caution against expectations derived from exemplar species or single locations in the study of biotic-abiotic interactions.

Formation and evolution of valley-bottom and channel features, Lower Deschutes River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.; O'Conner, Jim E.; O'Conner, Jim E.; Grant, Gordon E.

2003-01-01

Primary geologic and geomorphic processes that formed valley-bottom and channel features downstream from the Pelton-Round Butte dam complex are inferred from a canyon-long analysis of feature morphology, composition, location, and spatial distribution. Major controls on valley-bottom morphology are regional tectonics, large landslides, and outsized floods (floods with return periods greater than 1000 yrs), which include the late Holocene Outhouse Flood and several Quaternary landslide dam failures. Floods with a return period on the order of 100 yrs, including historical floods in 1996, 1964, and 1861, contribute to fan building and flood plain formation only within the resistant framework established by the major controls. Key processes in the formation of channel features, in particular the 153 islands and 23 large rapids, include long-term bedrock erosion, outsized floods, and century-scale floods. Historical analysis of channel conditions since 1911 indicates that the largest islands, which are cored by outsized-flood deposits, locally control channel location, although their margins are substantially modified during annual- to century-scale floods. Islands cored by bedrock have changed little. Islands formed by annual- to century-scale floods are more susceptible to dynamic interactions between tributary sediment inputs, mainstem flow hydraulics, and perhaps riparian vegetation. Temporal patterns of island change in response to the sequence of 20th century flooding indicate that many islands accreted sediment during annual- to decadal-scale floods, but eroded during larger century-scale floods. There is, however, no clear trend of long-term changes in patterns of island growth, movement, or erosion either spatially or temporally within the lower Deschutes River.

Development of a checklist of short-term and long-term psychological symptoms associated with ketamine use.

PubMed

Fan, Ni; Xu, Ke; Ning, Yuping; Wang, Daping; Ke, Xiaoyin; Ding, Yi; Sun, Bin; Zhou, Chao; Deng, Xuefeng; Rosenheck, Robert; He, Hongbo

2015-06-25

Ketamine is an increasingly popular drug of abuse in China but there is currently no method for classifying the psychological effects of ketamine in individuals with ketamine dependence. Develop a scale that characterizes the acute and long-term psychological effects of ketamine use among persons with ketamine dependence. We developed a preliminary symptom checklist with 35 dichotomous ('yes' or 'no') items about subjective feelings immediately after ketamine use and about perceived long-term effects of ketamine use that was administered to 187 inpatients with ketamine dependence recruited from two large hospitals in Guangzhou, China. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted on a randomly selected half of thesample to reduce the items and to identify underlying constructs. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted on the second half of the sample to assess the robustness of the identified factor structure. Among the 35 symptoms, the most-reported acute effects were 'floating or circling' (94%), 'euphoric when listening to rousing music' (86%), and 'feeling excited, talkative, and full of energy' (67%). The mostreported long-term symptoms were 'memory impairment' (93%), 'personality changes' (86%), and 'slowed reactions' (81%). EFA resulted in a final 22-item scale best modelled by a four-factor model: two factors representing chronic symptoms (social withdrawal and sleep disturbances), one about acute psychoticlike symptoms, and one that combined acute drug-related euphoria and longer-term decreased libido. CFA showed that these 4 factors accounted for 50% of the total variance of the final 22-item scale and that the model fit was fair (Goodness of Fit Index, GIF=83.3%; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation, RMSEA=0.072). A four-factor model including social withdrawal, sleep disturbance, psychotic-like symptoms, and euphoria at the time of drug use provides a fair description of the short-term and long-term psychological symptoms associated with ketamine use. Future work on the 22-item version of the scale with larger samples is needed to confirm the validity of this 4-factor structure, to assess the scale's test-retest reliability, and to determine whether or not it can be useful in the differential diagnosis and monitoring of treatment of individuals with ketamine dependence.

Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

2012-12-01

It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

Long-term Effect of Biomineralized Insulin Nanoparticles on Type 2 Diabetes Treatment

PubMed Central

Xiao, Yun; Wang, Xiaoyu; Wang, Ben; Liu, Xueyao; Xu, Xurong; Tang, Ruikang

2017-01-01

Intracellular insulin may exhibit a long-term effect in regulating protein synthesis, DNA synthesis, and gene transcription. However, the intracellular delivery of insulin is a great challenge. Here, we describe how a simple biomineralization modification of insulin can transport it into intact cells on a large scale, leading to a long-term therapeutic effect on diabetes mellitus. Using insulin-resistant HepG2 cell and diabetic KKAy mice as models, in vitro and in vivo assessments have demonstrated that biomineralized insulin nanoparticles can trigger glucose metabolism, and this improvement extends after the treatment. The potential exists to improve the current treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus through biomineralized modifications of insulin. This study provides a new paradigm of biomimetic nanotechnology for biomedical applications. PMID:29158827

Long-term dynamics of hawaiian volcanoes inferred by large-scale relative relocations of earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Got, J.-L.; Okubo, P.

2003-04-01

We investigated the microseismicity recorded in an active volcano to infer information concerning the volcano structure and long-term dynamics, by using relative relocations and focal mechanisms of microearthquakes. 32000 earthquakes of Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes were recorded by more than 8 stations of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory seismic network between 1988 and 1999. We studied 17000 of these events and relocated more than 70% with an accuracy ranging from 10 to 500 meters. About 75% of these relocated events are located in the vicinity of subhorizontal decollement planes, at 8 to 11 km depth. However, the striking features revealed by these relocation results are steep south-east dipping fault planes working as reverse faults, clearly located below the decollement plane and which intersect it. If this decollement plane coincides with the pre-Mauna Loa seafloor, as hypothesized by numerous authors, such reverse faults rupture the pre-Mauna Loa oceanic crust. The weight of the volcano and pressure in the magma storage system are possible causes of these ruptures, fully compatible with the local stress tensor computed by Gillard et al. (1996). Reverse faults are suspected of producing scarps revealed by km-long horizontal slip-perpendicular lineations along the decollement surface, and therefore large-scale roughness, asperities and normal stress variations. These are capable of generating stick-slip, large magnitude earthquakes, the spatial microseismic pattern observed in the south flank of Kilauea volcano, and Hilina-type instabilities. Ruptures intersecting the decollement surface, causing its large-scale roughness, may be an important parameter controlling the growth of Hawaiian volcanoes. Are there more or less rough decollement planes existing near the base of other volcanoes, such as Piton de la Fournaise or Etna, and able to explain part of their deformation and seismicity ?

Long-term data set analysis of stable isotopic composition in German rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckerth, Anne; Stichler, Willibald; Schmidt, Axel; Stumpp, Christine

2017-09-01

Stable isotopes oxygen-18 (18O) and deuterium (2H) are commonly used to investigate hydrological processes in catchments. However, only a few isotope studies have been conducted on a large scale and rarely over long time periods. The objective of this study was to identify the spatial and seasonal variability of isotopic composition in river water and how it is affected by geographical and hydrological factors. The stable isotopic composition of river water has been measured in nine large river catchments in Germany for a time period of 12 years or 26 years. We conducted time series and correlation analyses to identify spatial and temporal patterns of the isotopic composition in the rivers. Further, we compared it to isotopic composition in local precipitation and catchments characteristics. In the majority of the rivers, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation were directly reflected in river water. The isotopic signals of the river water were time shifted and show attenuated amplitudes. Further deviations from isotopic compositions in local precipitation were observed in catchments with complex flow systems. These deviations were attributed to catchment processes and influences like evaporation, damming and storage. The seasonality of the isotopic composition was mainly determined by the discharge regimes of the rivers. We found correlations between isotopic long-term averages and catchment altitude as well as latitude and longitude, resulting in a northwest-southeast gradient. Furthermore, it was shown that long-term averages of d-excess were inversely related to flow length and catchment size, which indicates that evaporation enrichment has an impact on the isotopic composition even in catchments of humid climates. This study showed that isotopic composition in rivers can serve as a proxy for the local precipitation and can be utilized as an indicator for hydrological processes even in large river basins. In future, such long time series will help to also understand the impact of changes in the hydrological cycle on the larger scales. They can also be used for calibration and validation of flow and transport models at catchment and sub-catchment scale.

Operational studies on the control of Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis in Ecuador.

PubMed Central

Cruz, M.; Davis, A.; Dixon, H.; Pawlowski, Z. S.; Proano, J.

1989-01-01

A large-scale study in Loja and El Oro Provinces, Ecuador, demonstrated that population-based treatment of human taeniasis with a low dose of praziquantel is feasible and effective for the short-term control of transmission of Taenia solium in hyperendemic areas. Chemotherapeutic intervention also effectively promoted local preventive measures and contributed greatly to the elaboration of a long-term control programme. PMID:2805217

Multi-profile analysis of soil moisture within the U.S. Climate Reference Network

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil moisture estimates are crucial for hydrologic modeling and agricultural decision-support efforts. These measurements are also pivotal for long-term inquiries regarding the impacts of climate change and the resulting droughts over large spatial and temporal scales. However, it has only been t...

Monitoring Ecological Impacts of Environmental Surface Waters using Cell-based Metabolomics

EPA Science Inventory

Optimized cell-based metabolomics has been used to study the impacts of contaminants in surface waters on human and fish metabolomes. This method has proven to be resource- and time-effective, as well as sustainable for long term and large scale studies. In the current study, cel...

Coordinating the Commons: Diversity & Dynamics in Open Collaborations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Jonathan T.

2013-01-01

The success of Wikipedia demonstrates that open collaboration can be an effective model for organizing geographically-distributed volunteers to perform complex, sustained work at a massive scale. However, Wikipedia's history also demonstrates some of the challenges that large, long-term open collaborations face: the core community of Wikipedia…

On the long-term hydroclimatic sustainability of perennial bioenergy crop expansion over the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Large-scale cultivation of perennial bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus and switchgrass) offers unique opportunities to mitigate climate change through avoided fossil fuel use and associated greenhouse gas reduction. Although conversion of existing agriculturally intensive lands (e.g., maize and soy)...

Control of rabbit myxomatosis in Poland.

PubMed

Górski, J; Mizak, B; Chrobocińska, M

1994-09-01

The authors present an epizootiological analysis of myxomatosis in Poland. The biological, physical and chemical properties of virus strains used for the production and control of 'Myxovac M' vaccine are discussed. The long-term stability, safety and efficacy of the vaccine are demonstrated. Laboratory experiments were confirmed in large-scale field observations.

50 CFR 18.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...), Eskimo, or Aleut blood, or combination thereof. The term includes any Native, as so defined, either or... blood quantum, any citizen of the United States who is regarded as an Alaska Native by the Native... formation of traditional native groups, such as cooperatives, is permitted so long as no large-scale mass...

Constraints to commercialization of algal fuels.

PubMed

Chisti, Yusuf

2013-09-10

Production of algal crude oil has been achieved in various pilot scale facilities, but whether algal fuels can be produced in sufficient quantity to meaningfully displace petroleum fuels, has been largely overlooked. Limitations to commercialization of algal fuels need to be understood and addressed for any future commercialization. This review identifies the major constraints to commercialization of transport fuels from microalgae. Algae derived fuels are expensive compared to petroleum derived fuels, but this could change. Unfortunately, improved economics of production are not sufficient for an environmentally sustainable production, or its large scale feasibility. A low-cost point supply of concentrated carbon dioxide colocated with the other essential resources is necessary for producing algal fuels. An insufficiency of concentrated carbon dioxide is actually a major impediment to any substantial production of algal fuels. Sustainability of production requires the development of an ability to almost fully recycle the phosphorous and nitrogen nutrients that are necessary for algae culture. Development of a nitrogen biofixation ability to support production of algal fuels ought to be an important long term objective. At sufficiently large scale, a limited supply of freshwater will pose a significant limitation to production even if marine algae are used. Processes for recovering energy from the algal biomass left after the extraction of oil, are required for achieving a net positive energy balance in the algal fuel oil. The near term outlook for widespread use of algal fuels appears bleak, but fuels for niche applications such as in aviation may be likely in the medium term. Genetic and metabolic engineering of microalgae to boost production of fuel oil and ease its recovery, are essential for commercialization of algal fuels. Algae will need to be genetically modified for improved photosynthetic efficiency in the long term. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enterprise tools to promote interoperability: MonitoringResources.org supports design and documentation of large-scale, long-term monitoringprograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltzin, J. F.; Scully, R. A.; Bayer, J.

2016-12-01

Individual natural resource monitoring programs have evolved in response to different organizational mandates, jurisdictional needs, issues and questions. We are establishing a collaborative forum for large-scale, long-term monitoring programs to identify opportunities where collaboration could yield efficiency in monitoring design, implementation, analyses, and data sharing. We anticipate these monitoring programs will have similar requirements - e.g. survey design, standardization of protocols and methods, information management and delivery - that could be met by enterprise tools to promote sustainability, efficiency and interoperability of information across geopolitical boundaries or organizational cultures. MonitoringResources.org, a project of the Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership, provides an on-line suite of enterprise tools focused on aquatic systems in the Pacific Northwest Region of the United States. We will leverage on and expand this existing capacity to support continental-scale monitoring of both aquatic and terrestrial systems. The current stakeholder group is focused on programs led by bureaus with the Department of Interior, but the tools will be readily and freely available to a broad variety of other stakeholders. Here, we report the results of two initial stakeholder workshops focused on (1) establishing a collaborative forum of large scale monitoring programs, (2) identifying and prioritizing shared needs, (3) evaluating existing enterprise resources, (4) defining priorities for development of enhanced capacity for MonitoringResources.org, and (5) identifying a small number of pilot projects that can be used to define and test development requirements for specific monitoring programs.

High Temperature Electrolysis 4 kW Experiment Design, Operation, and Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

J.E. O'Brien; X. Zhang; K. DeWall

2012-09-01

This report provides results of long-term stack testing completed in the new high-temperature steam electrolysis multi-kW test facility recently developed at INL. The report includes detailed descriptions of the piping layout, steam generation and delivery system, test fixture, heat recuperation system, hot zone, instrumentation, and operating conditions. This facility has provided a demonstration of high-temperature steam electrolysis operation at the 4 kW scale with advanced cell and stack technology. This successful large-scale demonstration of high-temperature steam electrolysis will help to advance the technology toward near-term commercialization.

Conceptual Research of Lunar-based Earth Observation for Polar Glacier Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Zhixing; Liu, Guang; Ding, Yixing

2016-07-01

The ice flow velocity of glaciers is important for estimating the polar ice sheet mass balance, and it is of great significance for studies into rising sea level under the background of global warming. However so far the long-term and global measurements of these macro-scale motion processes of the polar glaciers have hardly been achieved by Earth Observation (EO) technique from the ground, aircraft or satellites in space. This paper, facing the demand for space technology for large-scale global environmental change observation,especially the changes of polar glaciers, and proposes a new concept involving setting up sensors on the lunar surface and using the Moon as a platform for Earth observation, transmitting the data back to Earth. Lunar-based Earth observation, which enables the Earth's large-scale, continuous, long-term dynamic motions to be measured, is expected to provide a new solution to the problems mentioned above. According to the pattern and characteristics of polar glaciers motion, we will propose a comprehensive investigation of Lunar-based Earth observation with synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Via theoretical modeling and experimental simulation inversion, intensive studies of Lunar-based Earth observation for the glacier motions in the polar regions will be implemented, including the InSAR basics theory, observation modes of InSAR and optimization methods of their key parameters. It will be of a great help to creatively expand the EO technique system from space. In addition, they will contribute to establishing the theoretical foundation for the realization of the global, long-term and continuous observation for the glacier motion phenomena in the Antarctic and the Arctic.

ESRI applications of GIS technology: Mineral resource development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derrenbacher, W.

1981-01-01

The application of geographic information systems technology to large scale regional assessment related to mineral resource development, identifying candidate sites for related industry, and evaluating sites for waste disposal is discussed. Efforts to develop data bases were conducted at scales ranging from 1:3,000,000 to 1:25,000. In several instances, broad screening was conducted for large areas at a very general scale with more detailed studies subsequently undertaken in promising areas windowed out of the generalized data base. Increasingly, the systems which are developed are structured as the spatial framework for the long-term collection, storage, referencing, and retrieval of vast amounts of data about large regions. Typically, the reconnaissance data base for a large region is structured at 1:250,000 scale, data bases for smaller areas being structured at 1:25,000, 1:50,000 or 1:63,360. An integrated data base for the coterminous US was implemented at a scale of 1:3,000,000 for two separate efforts.

Synaptic Scaling Enables Dynamically Distinct Short- and Long-Term Memory Formation

PubMed Central

Tetzlaff, Christian; Kolodziejski, Christoph; Timme, Marc; Tsodyks, Misha; Wörgötter, Florentin

2013-01-01

Memory storage in the brain relies on mechanisms acting on time scales from minutes, for long-term synaptic potentiation, to days, for memory consolidation. During such processes, neural circuits distinguish synapses relevant for forming a long-term storage, which are consolidated, from synapses of short-term storage, which fade. How time scale integration and synaptic differentiation is simultaneously achieved remains unclear. Here we show that synaptic scaling – a slow process usually associated with the maintenance of activity homeostasis – combined with synaptic plasticity may simultaneously achieve both, thereby providing a natural separation of short- from long-term storage. The interaction between plasticity and scaling provides also an explanation for an established paradox where memory consolidation critically depends on the exact order of learning and recall. These results indicate that scaling may be fundamental for stabilizing memories, providing a dynamic link between early and late memory formation processes. PMID:24204240

Synaptic scaling enables dynamically distinct short- and long-term memory formation.

PubMed

Tetzlaff, Christian; Kolodziejski, Christoph; Timme, Marc; Tsodyks, Misha; Wörgötter, Florentin

2013-10-01

Memory storage in the brain relies on mechanisms acting on time scales from minutes, for long-term synaptic potentiation, to days, for memory consolidation. During such processes, neural circuits distinguish synapses relevant for forming a long-term storage, which are consolidated, from synapses of short-term storage, which fade. How time scale integration and synaptic differentiation is simultaneously achieved remains unclear. Here we show that synaptic scaling - a slow process usually associated with the maintenance of activity homeostasis - combined with synaptic plasticity may simultaneously achieve both, thereby providing a natural separation of short- from long-term storage. The interaction between plasticity and scaling provides also an explanation for an established paradox where memory consolidation critically depends on the exact order of learning and recall. These results indicate that scaling may be fundamental for stabilizing memories, providing a dynamic link between early and late memory formation processes.

Complete reorganization of the motor cortex of adult rats following long-term spinal cord injuries.

PubMed

Tandon, Shashank; Kambi, Niranjan; Mohammed, Hisham; Jain, Neeraj

2013-07-01

Understanding brain reorganization following long-term spinal cord injuries is important for optimizing recoveries based on residual function as well as developing brain-controlled assistive devices. Although it has been shown that the motor cortex undergoes partial reorganization within a few weeks after peripheral and spinal cord injuries, it is not known if the motor cortex of rats is capable of large-scale reorganization after longer recovery periods. Here we determined the organization of the rat (Rattus norvegicus) motor cortex at 5 or more months after chronic lesions of the spinal cord at cervical levels using intracortical microstimulation. The results show that, in the rats with the lesions, stimulation of neurons in the de-efferented forelimb motor cortex no longer evokes movements of the forelimb. Instead, movements of the body parts in the adjacent representations, namely the whiskers and neck were evoked. In addition, at many sites, movements of the ipsilateral forelimb were observed at threshold currents. The extent of representations of the eye, jaw and tongue movements was unaltered by the lesion. Thus, large-scale reorganization of the motor cortex leads to complete filling-in of the de-efferented cortex by neighboring representations following long-term partial spinal cord injuries at cervical levels in adult rats. © 2013 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Soil bacterial communities are shaped by temporal and environmental filtering: evidence from a long-term chronosequence.

PubMed

Freedman, Zachary; Zak, Donald R

2015-09-01

Soil microbial communities are abundant, hyper-diverse and mediate global biogeochemical cycles, but we do not yet understand the processes mediating their assembly. Current hypothetical frameworks suggest temporal (e.g. dispersal limitation) and environmental (e.g. soil pH) filters shape microbial community composition; however, there is limited empirical evidence supporting this framework in the hyper-diverse soil environment, particularly at large spatial (i.e. regional to continental) and temporal (i.e. 100 to 1000 years) scales. Here, we present evidence from a long-term chronosequence (4000 years) that temporal and environmental filters do indeed shape soil bacterial community composition. Furthermore, nearly 20 years of environmental monitoring allowed us to control for potentially confounding environmental variation. Soil bacterial communities were phylogenetically distinct across the chronosequence. We determined that temporal and environmental factors accounted for significant portions of bacterial phylogenetic structure using distance-based linear models. Environmental factors together accounted for the majority of phylogenetic structure, namely, soil temperature (19%), pH (17%) and litter carbon:nitrogen (C:N; 17%). However, of all individual factors, time since deglaciation accounted for the greatest proportion of bacterial phylogenetic structure (20%). Taken together, our results provide empirical evidence that temporal and environmental filters act together to structure soil bacterial communities across large spatial and long-term temporal scales. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of long-term and large-scale even-odd license plate controlled plan effects on urban air quality and its implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Suping; Yu, Ye; Qin, Dahe; Yin, Daiying; He, Jianjun

2017-12-01

To solve traffic congestion and to improve urban air quality, long-lasting and large-scale even-odd license plate controlled plan was implemented by local government during 20 November to 26 December 2016 in urban Lanzhou, a semi-arid valley city of northwest China. The traffic control measures provided an invaluable opportunity to evaluate its effects on urban air quality in less developed cities of northwest China. Based on measured simultaneously air pollutants and meteorological parameters, the abatement of traffic-related pollutants induced by the implemented control measures such as CO, PM2.5 and PM10 (the particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm and 10 μm) concentrations were firstly quantified by comparing the air quality data in urban areas with those in rural areas (uncontrolled zones). The concentrations of CO, NO2 from motor vehicles and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were shown to have significant decreases of 15%-23% during traffic control period from those measured before control period with hourly maximum CO, PM2.5, and NO2/SO2 reduction of 43%, 35% and 141.4%, respectively. The influence of the control measures on AQI (air quality index) and ozone was less as compared to its effect on other air pollutants. Therefore, to alleviate serious winter haze pollution in China and to protect human health, the stringent long-term and large-scale even-odd license plate controlled plan should be implemented aperiodically in urban areas, especially for the periods with poor diffusion conditions.

Long-term academic stress enhances early processing of facial expressions.

PubMed

Zhang, Liang; Qin, Shaozheng; Yao, Zhuxi; Zhang, Kan; Wu, Jianhui

2016-11-01

Exposure to long-term stress can lead to a variety of emotional and behavioral problems. Although widely investigated, the neural basis of how long-term stress impacts emotional processing in humans remains largely elusive. Using event-related brain potentials (ERPs), we investigated the effects of long-term stress on the neural dynamics of emotionally facial expression processing. Thirty-nine male college students undergoing preparation for a major examination and twenty-one matched controls performed a gender discrimination task for faces displaying angry, happy, and neutral expressions. The results of the Perceived Stress Scale showed that participants in the stress group perceived higher levels of long-term stress relative to the control group. ERP analyses revealed differential effects of long-term stress on two early stages of facial expression processing: 1) long-term stress generally augmented posterior P1 amplitudes to facial stimuli irrespective of expression valence, suggesting that stress can increase sensitization to visual inputs in general, and 2) long-term stress selectively augmented fronto-central P2 amplitudes for angry but not for neutral or positive facial expressions, suggesting that stress may lead to increased attentional prioritization to processing negative emotional stimuli. Together, our findings suggest that long-term stress has profound impacts on the early stages of facial expression processing, with an increase at the very early stage of general information inputs and a subsequent attentional bias toward processing emotionally negative stimuli. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Boreal spring precipitation variability in the cold arid western Himalaya during the last millennium, regional linkages, and socio-economic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadava, Akhilesh K.; Bräuning, Achim; Singh, Jayendra; Yadav, Ram R.

2016-07-01

Precipitation in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalayan region, largely under the influence of mid-latitude westerlies, is the dominant regional socioeconomic driver. Current knowledge of long-term regional precipitation variability is scarce due to spatially and temporally limited weather and high-resolution proxy climate records. We developed the first boreal spring precipitation reconstruction for the western Himalaya covering the last millennium (1030-2011 C.E.). The annually resolved reconstruction is based on a large tree-ring data set of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara) and neoza pine (Pinus gerardiana) from 16 ecologically homogeneous moisture stressed settings in Kinnaur, western Indian Himalaya. The precipitation reconstruction revealed persistent long-term spring droughts from the 12th to early 16th century C.E. and pluvial from the late 16th century C.E. to recent decades. The late 15th and early 16th centuries (1490-1514 C.E.) displayed the driest episode, with precipitation being ∼15% lower than the long-term mean. The early 19th century (1820-1844 C.E.) was the wettest period of the past millennium, with mean precipitation ∼13% above the long-term mean. The reconstructed boreal spring precipitation from the western Himalaya revealed large-scale consistency with hydrological records from westerly dominated regions in Central Asia, indicating synoptic-scale changes in atmospheric circulation during the major part of the Medieval and Little Ice Age periods. Protracted droughts in Central Asia could have caused severe contraction of the regional economy, as indicated by striking coherence of reconstructed drought periods and historic social upheavals and invasions of India from Central and Western Asian invaders. Vulnerability to climatic extremes underpins the need to develop a better understanding of the temporal and spatial variability in regional hydroclimate in order to devise viable water resource management plans.

A holistic approach for large-scale derived flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Apel, Heiko; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Sergiy, Vorogushyn; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Spatial consistency, which has been usually disregarded because of the reported methodological difficulties, is increasingly demanded in regional flood hazard (and risk) assessments. This study aims at developing a holistic approach for deriving flood frequency at large scale consistently. A large scale two-component model has been established for simulating very long-term multisite synthetic meteorological fields and flood flow at many gauged and ungauged locations hence reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The model has been applied for the region of nearly a half million km2 including Germany and parts of nearby countries. The model performance has been multi-objectively examined with a focus on extreme. By this continuous simulation approach, flood quantiles for the studied region have been derived successfully and provide useful input for a comprehensive flood risk study.

Characteristics and evolution of the ecosystem of software tools supporting research in molecular biology.

PubMed

Pazos, Florencio; Chagoyen, Monica

2018-01-16

Daily work in molecular biology presently depends on a large number of computational tools. An in-depth, large-scale study of that 'ecosystem' of Web tools, its characteristics, interconnectivity, patterns of usage/citation, temporal evolution and rate of decay is crucial for understanding the forces that shape it and for informing initiatives aimed at its funding, long-term maintenance and improvement. In particular, the long-term maintenance of these tools is compromised because of their specific development model. Hundreds of published studies become irreproducible de facto, as the software tools used to conduct them become unavailable. In this study, we present a large-scale survey of >5400 publications describing Web servers within the two main bibliographic resources for disseminating new software developments in molecular biology. For all these servers, we studied their citation patterns, the subjects they address, their citation networks and the temporal evolution of these factors. We also analysed how these factors affect the availability of these servers (whether they are alive). Our results show that this ecosystem of tools is highly interconnected and adapts to the 'trendy' subjects in every moment. The servers present characteristic temporal patterns of citation/usage, and there is a worrying rate of server 'death', which is influenced by factors such as the server popularity and the institutions that hosts it. These results can inform initiatives aimed at the long-term maintenance of these resources. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of Formica ants on soil fauna-results from a short-term exclusion and a long-term natural experiment.

PubMed

Lenoir, Lisette; Bengtsson, Jan; Persson, Tryggve

2003-02-01

Wood ants (Formica spp.) were hypothesised to affect the composition and greatly reduce the abundance of large-sized soil fauna by predation. This was tested in two ways. Firstly, a 4-year-long experimental study was carried out in a mixed forest. Five ant-free 1.3-m(2) plots were created by fenced exclosures within an ant territory. Five nearby plots had fences with entrances for the ants. In addition, five non-fenced control plots were selected. Soil fauna (e.g. Coleoptera, Diptera larvae, Collembola and Araneae) was sampled during the summers of 1997-2000. The soil fauna was affected by the exclosures but there was no detectable effect of ants on the soil fauna. Secondly, soil fauna was studied within a large-scale natural experiment in which the long-term (30 years) effects of red wood ants could be assessed inside and outside ant territories. This long-term natural experiment revealed no significant effects of ants on the abundance or composition of soil fauna. The results from the two studies indicate that the effects of wood ants on soil fauna are fairly small. The hypothesis that wood ants are key-stone predators on soil fauna could, thus, not be supported.

Long-term rocky coast erosion: the influence of structural pattern and lithological context, as evidenced in the chalk (NW Normandy) and granitic (SW Brittany) rocks, NW France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duperret, Anne; Raimbault, Céline; Duguet, Timothée; Le Gall, Bernard; Costa, Stéphane; Vandycke, Sara

2017-04-01

During the EC2CO/DRIL/CROCODYL project, high-resolution land-sea DEM have been produced in NW Normandy and SW Brittany rocky coastal zone, using high-resolution bathymetry from shallow-water cruises CROCOLIT-1,-2,-3 (Duperret, 2013), SPLASHALIOT-3 (Maillet, 2014), THAPENFROM-1 (Duperret, 2015) and aerial topographic LiDAR data from the Litto3D project. Two study sites were selected to map detailed geomorphology of shore platforms in order to better understand rock coast evolution processes through time and long-term rates of rocky coastal erosion versus geological context. The eastern English Channel is made of coastal chalk cliffs that currently eroding with fast mean rates of the order of a few dm/year. In Normandy coast (NW France), this results to the generation of roughly linear coastal segments of about 20-30km long each. On coastal segments only made of Upper Cretaceous Chalk, erosion occurs by present-day sudden and repeated vertical failures and cliff collapses. Cliff collapse process is shaping vertical chalk cliffs in association with resulting roughly flat shore platforms. Even if shore platforms width are short and homogeneous (a few hundred meters in width), the detailed morphology observed on high-resolution bathymetry evidenced two main submarine geomorphological types. One is linear and regular and associated with linear coastal sections. This corresponds to homogeneous Chalk Formation and the lack of large-scale tectonic features. Coastal sections with chalk lithology variations, local folding, large-scale fractures transverse-oriented to the coastline and onshore valleys incision evidence chaotic shore platforms morphologies. They conduct to variations in coastline orientation and to meter-scale shoreline indentations The southwestern part of Brittany is made of low-lying granitic headland and indented bay cut into meta/granitic rocks. Erosion rates are poorly known, due to slow coastal evolutions through contemporary times. Land-Sea DEM evidence similar onshore and offshore morphologies, with flat and wide superposed plains, limited each one by 10m high scarps. In this case, shore platform extension reaches a few km in width and appears as superposed paleo-shore platforms generated since Pleistocene (Raimbault et al, in press). The erosive process is thus link to a long-term alteration of granitic rocks since Cenozoic, mainly clear and etched during recent past high sea levels. Coastal areas with large bays appear locally to be guided by large-scale Cenozoic fractures. In some places, km-scale fractures favor a spatial concentration of erosion. They are shaping coastline orientation and shore platform ending at km-scale.

Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Gray, Clark L; Mueller, Valerie

2012-04-17

The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity.

Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David

2016-04-01

Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for 60 years (1951-2010) show large annual and multiannual variability. The trends are mostly positive in the western parts and negative to the east. However, due to the large temporal variability, the trends are not significant at most of the grid points. Furthermore, it becomes clear that the environmental conditions that favor the formation of hailstorms prevail in larger areas. This finding suggests that, despite the local-scale nature of convective storms, the ambient conditions favoring these events are mainly controlled by large-scale circulation patterns and mechanisms. This result is important to estimate the convective potential of the atmosphere in case of single events.

Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales.

PubMed

Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper; Tøttrup, Anders P; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Noble, David G; Reif, Jiri; Schmid, Hans; van Turnhout, Chris; Burfield, Ian J; Foppen, Ruud; Voříšek, Petr; van Strien, Arco; Gregory, Richard D; Rahbek, Carsten

2016-02-01

Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long-term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land-use change, including long-term increases in populations of hot-dwelling species and declines in long-distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long-term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high-resolution time series are available in large-scale biodiversity surveys. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optical power transfer and communication methods for wireless implantable sensing platforms.

PubMed

Mujeeb-U-Rahman, Muhammad; Adalian, Dvin; Chang, Chieh-Feng; Scherer, Axel

2015-09-01

Ultrasmall scale implants have recently attracted focus as valuable tools for monitoring both acute and chronic diseases. Semiconductor optical technologies are the key to miniaturizing these devices to the long-sought sub-mm scale, which will enable long-term use of these devices for medical applications. This can also enable the use of multiple implantable devices concurrently to form a true body area network of sensors. We demonstrate optical power transfer techniques and methods to effectively harness this power for implantable devices. Furthermore, we also present methods for optical data transfer from such implants. Simultaneous use of these technologies can result in miniaturized sensing platforms that can allow for large-scale use of such systems in real world applications.

Optical power transfer and communication methods for wireless implantable sensing platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mujeeb-U-Rahman, Muhammad; Adalian, Dvin; Chang, Chieh-Feng; Scherer, Axel

2015-09-01

Ultrasmall scale implants have recently attracted focus as valuable tools for monitoring both acute and chronic diseases. Semiconductor optical technologies are the key to miniaturizing these devices to the long-sought sub-mm scale, which will enable long-term use of these devices for medical applications. This can also enable the use of multiple implantable devices concurrently to form a true body area network of sensors. We demonstrate optical power transfer techniques and methods to effectively harness this power for implantable devices. Furthermore, we also present methods for optical data transfer from such implants. Simultaneous use of these technologies can result in miniaturized sensing platforms that can allow for large-scale use of such systems in real world applications.

Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

PubMed

Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

2016-01-01

In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

Responding to Terrorism Victims: Oklahoma City and Beyond.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dinsmore, Janet

This report identifies the special measures needed to protect the rights and meet the needs of victims of a large-scale terrorist attack involving mass casualties. In particular, it demonstrates efforts required to ensure an effective response to victims' rights and their short- and long-term emotional and psychological needs as an integral part…

An approach to evaluating the long-term effects of land use on landslides, erosion, and stream channels

Treesearch

Robert. R. Ziemer

1991-01-01

Summary - There is increasing concern about how land management practices influence the frequency of mass erosion and sedimentation over large temporal and spatial scales. Monte Carlo simulations can identify fruitful areas for continuing cooperation between scientists in the U.S.A. and Japan.

Studying long-term, large-scale grassland restoration outcomes to improve seeding methods and reveal knowledge gaps

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

1) Considerable research is currently focused on restoring the World’s degraded grasslands by introducing species from seed. The research is continually providing valuable new insights into early seeded plant establishment, but more emphasis on longer, larger studies is needed to better quantify s...

Evaluating Long-Term Complex Professional Development: Using a Variation of the Cohort Control Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sample Mcmeeking, Laura B.; Cobb, R. Brian; Basile, Carole

2010-01-01

This paper introduces a variation on the post-test only cohort control design and addresses questions concerning both the methodological credibility and the practical utility of employing this design variation in evaluations of large-scale complex professional development programmes in mathematics education. The original design and design…

Postfire soil burn severity mapping with hyperspectral image unmixing

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; Sarah A. Lewis; Denise Y. M. Laes; Andrew T. Hudak; Raymond F. Kokaly; Joseph A. Zamudio

2007-01-01

Burn severity is mapped after wildfires to evaluate immediate and long-term fire effects on the landscape. Remotely sensed hyperspectral imagery has the potential to provide important information about fine-scale ground cover components that are indicative of burn severity after large wildland fires. Airborne hyperspectral imagery and ground data were collected after...

Science accomplishments report.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2003-01-01

Today, as in the past, complex forces of nature intersect with communities and society. Fire, climate change, invasive species, and large-scale shifts in forest cover and use are some of the key issues society currently faces. This accomplishment report encapsulates a year’s work from our scientists. This work is often interdisciplinary, long term, geographically broad...

Parental Divorce and Sibling Relationships: A Research Note

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poortman, Anne-Rigt; Voorpostel, Marieke

2009-01-01

This study examines long-term effects of parental divorce on sibling relationships in adulthood and the role of predivorce parental conflict. It used large-scale retrospective data from the Netherlands that contain reports from both siblings of the sibling dyad. Results show limited effects of parental divorce on sibling contact and relationship…

Quality Assessments of Long-Term Quantitative Proteomic Analysis of Breast Cancer Xenograft Tissues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Jian-Ying; Chen, Lijun; Zhang, Bai

The identification of protein biomarkers requires large-scale analysis of human specimens to achieve statistical significance. In this study, we evaluated the long-term reproducibility of an iTRAQ (isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification) based quantitative proteomics strategy using one channel for universal normalization across all samples. A total of 307 liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometric (LC-MS/MS) analyses were completed, generating 107 one-dimensional (1D) LC-MS/MS datasets and 8 offline two-dimensional (2D) LC-MS/MS datasets (25 fractions for each set) for human-in-mouse breast cancer xenograft tissues representative of basal and luminal subtypes. Such large-scale studies require the implementation of robust metrics to assessmore » the contributions of technical and biological variability in the qualitative and quantitative data. Accordingly, we developed a quantification confidence score based on the quality of each peptide-spectrum match (PSM) to remove quantification outliers from each analysis. After combining confidence score filtering and statistical analysis, reproducible protein identification and quantitative results were achieved from LC-MS/MS datasets collected over a 16 month period.« less

Epidemiological considerations for the use of databases in transfusion research: a Scandinavian perspective.

PubMed

Edgren, Gustaf; Hjalgrim, Henrik

2010-11-01

At current safety levels, with adverse events from transfusions being relatively rare, further progress in risk reductions will require large-scale investigations. Thus, truly prospective studies may prove unfeasible and other alternatives deserve consideration. In this review, we will try to give an overview of recent and historical developments in the use of blood donation and transfusion databases in research. In addition, we will go over important methodological issues. There are at least three nationwide or near-nationwide donation/transfusion databases with the possibility for long-term follow-up of donors and recipients. During the past few years, a large number of reports have been published utilizing such data sources to investigate transfusion-associated risks. In addition, numerous clinics systematically collect and use such data on a smaller scale. Combining systematically recorded donation and transfusion data with long-term health follow-up opens up exciting opportunities for transfusion medicine research. However, the correct analysis of such data requires close attention to methodological issues, especially including the indication for transfusion and reverse causality.

Monitoring Surface Climate With its Emissivity Derived From Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu

2012-01-01

Satellite thermal infrared (IR) spectral emissivity data have been shown to be significant for atmospheric research and monitoring the Earth fs environment. Long-term and large-scale observations needed for global monitoring and research can be supplied by satellite-based remote sensing. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity data retrieved from the last 5 years of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements observed from the MetOp-A satellite. Monthly mean surface properties (i.e., skin temperature T(sub s) and emissivity spectra epsilon(sub v) with a spatial resolution of 0.5x0.5-degrees latitude-longitude are produced to monitor seasonal and inter-annual variations. We demonstrate that surface epsilon(sub v) and T(sub s) retrieved with IASI measurements can be used to assist in monitoring surface weather and surface climate change. Surface epsilon(sub v) together with T(sub s) from current and future operational satellites can be utilized as a means of long-term and large-scale monitoring of Earth 's surface weather environment and associated changes.

Evolutionary dynamics of social dilemmas in structured heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Santos, F C; Pacheco, J M; Lenaerts, Tom

2006-02-28

Real populations have been shown to be heterogeneous, in which some individuals have many more contacts than others. This fact contrasts with the traditional homogeneous setting used in studies of evolutionary game dynamics. We incorporate heterogeneity in the population by studying games on graphs, in which the variability in connectivity ranges from single-scale graphs, for which heterogeneity is small and associated degree distributions exhibit a Gaussian tale, to scale-free graphs, for which heterogeneity is large with degree distributions exhibiting a power-law behavior. We study the evolution of cooperation, modeled in terms of the most popular dilemmas of cooperation. We show that, for all dilemmas, increasing heterogeneity favors the emergence of cooperation, such that long-term cooperative behavior easily resists short-term noncooperative behavior. Moreover, we show how cooperation depends on the intricate ties between individuals in scale-free populations.

Stochastic inflation lattice simulations - Ultra-large scale structure of the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salopek, D. S.

1991-01-01

Non-Gaussian fluctuations for structure formation may arise in inflation from the nonlinear interaction of long wavelength gravitational and scalar fields. Long wavelength fields have spatial gradients, a (exp -1), small compared to the Hubble radius, and they are described in terms of classical random fields that are fed by short wavelength quantum noise. Lattice Langevin calculations are given for a toy model with a scalar field interacting with an exponential potential where one can obtain exact analytic solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation. For single scalar field models that are consistent with current microwave background fluctuations, the fluctuations are Gaussian. However, for scales much larger than our observable Universe, one expects large metric fluctuations that are non-Gaussian. This example illuminates non-Gaussian models involving multiple scalar fields which are consistent with current microwave background limits.

Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang

2010-12-01

Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km2) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50 years) are available.

Diffuse pollution of soil and water: Long term trends at large scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grathwohl, P.

2012-04-01

Industrialization and urbanization, which consequently increased pressure on the environment to cause degradation of soil and water quality over more than a century, is still ongoing. The number of potential environmental contaminants detected in surface and groundwater is continuously increasing; from classical industrial and agricultural chemicals, to flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products. While point sources of pollution can be managed in principle, diffuse pollution is only reversible at very long time scales if at all. Compounds which were phased out many decades ago such as PCBs or DDT are still abundant in soils, sediments and biota. How diffuse pollution is processed at large scales in space (e.g. catchments) and time (centuries) is unknown. The relevance to the field of processes well investigated at the laboratory scale (e.g. sorption/desorption and (bio)degradation kinetics) is not clear. Transport of compounds is often coupled to the water cycle and in order to assess trends in diffuse pollution, detailed knowledge about the hydrology and the solute fluxes at the catchment scale is required (e.g. input/output fluxes, transformation rates at the field scale). This is also a prerequisite in assessing management options for reversal of adverse trends.

Robust non-Gaussian statistics and long-range correlation of total ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toumi, R.; Syroka, J.; Barnes, C.; Lewis, P.

2001-01-01

Three long-term total ozone time series at Camborne, Lerwick and Arosa are examined for their statistical properties. Non-Gaussian behaviour is seen for all locations. There are large interannual fluctuations in the higher moments of the probability distribution. However, only the mean for all stations and summer standard deviation at Lerwick show significant trends. This suggests that there has been no long-term change in the stratospheric circulation, but there are decadal variations. The time series can be also characterised as scale invariant with a Hurst exponent of about 0.8 for all three sites. The Arosa time series was found to be weakly intermittent, in agreement with the non-Gaussian characteristics of the data set

The elephant in the room: collaboration and competition among relief organizations during high-profile disasters.

PubMed

Subbarao, Italo; Wynia, Matthew K; Burkle, Frederick M

2010-01-01

The non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that assume the bulk of emergency care during large-scale disasters in the developing world must expend considerable time and resources to ensure donations to sustain their field operations. This long-standing dilemma for the humanitarian community can create a competitive environment that: Compromises the delivery and quality of services, Allows the effectiveness of operations to be compromised by a lack of cooperation and collaboration, Disrupts the timely and accurate coordination and analysis of outcome measures that are crucial to successful response in the future, and Undermines the long-term capacity of indigenous aid organizations. This article addresses problems and potential solutions for improved coordination and long-term capacity-building of humanitarian aid.

Native fish conservation areas: A vision for large-scale conservation of native fish communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Jack E.; Williams, Richard N.; Thurow, Russell F.; Elwell, Leah; Philipp, David P.; Harris, Fred A.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Martinez, Patrick J.; Miller, Dirk; Reeves, Gordon H.; Frissell, Christopher A.; Sedell, James R.

2011-01-01

The status of freshwater fishes continues to decline despite substantial conservation efforts to reverse this trend and recover threatened and endangered aquatic species. Lack of success is partially due to working at smaller spatial scales and focusing on habitats and species that are already degraded. Protecting entire watersheds and aquatic communities, which we term "native fish conservation areas" (NFCAs), would complement existing conservation efforts by protecting intact aquatic communities while allowing compatible uses. Four critical elements need to be met within a NFCA: (1) maintain processes that create habitat complexity, diversity, and connectivity; (2) nurture all of the life history stages of the fishes being protected; (3) include a long-term enough watershed to provide long-term persistence of native fish populations; and (4) provide management that is sustainable over time. We describe how a network of protected watersheds could be created that would anchor aquatic conservation needs in river basins across the country.

Experimental design, operation, and results of a 4 kW high temperature steam electrolysis experiment

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Xiaoyu; O'Brien, James E.; Tao, Greg; ...

2015-08-06

High temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) is a promising technology for large-scale hydrogen production. However, research on HTSE performance above the kW level is limited. This paper presents the results of 4 kW HTSE long-term test completed in a multi-kW test facility recently developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The 4 kW HTSE unit included two solid oxide electrolysis stacks operating in parallel, each of which included 40 electrode-supported planar cells. A current density of 0.41 A/cm2 was used for the long-term operation, resulting in a hydrogen production rate about 25 slpm. A demonstration of 920 hours stable operation wasmore » achieved. The paper also includes detailed descriptions of the piping layout, steam generation and delivery system, test fixture, heat recuperation system, hot zone, instrumentation, and operating conditions. As a result, this successful demonstration of multi-kW scale HTSE unit will help to advance the technology toward near-term commercialization.« less

Towards a natural disaster intervention and recovery framework.

PubMed

Lawther, Peter M

2016-07-01

Contemporary responses to facilitate long-term recovery from large-scale natural disasters juxtapose between those of humanitarian agencies and governments and those of the affected community. The extent to which these mechanisms articulate is crucial to the recovery propensity of the affected communities. This research examines such action by exploring the relationship between the scale of post-disaster response interventions, the extent of community participation in them, and their impact on community recovery, using a community wealth capital framework. The investigation was applied to a study of the longer-term community recovery of the island of Vilufushi, Republic of Maldives, which was almost completely destroyed by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004. Data were analysed through the employment of a pattern match technique and a holistic recovery network analysis. The research framework, informed by the case-study results, other long-term recovery evaluations, and existing resilience theory, is reconfigured as a testable roadmap for future post-disaster interventions. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Impact of a long term fire retardant (Fire Trol 931) on the leaching of Na, Al, Fe, Mn, Cu and Si from a Mediterranean forest soil: a short-term, lab-scale study.

PubMed

Koufopoulou, Sofia; Michalopoulos, Charalampos; Tzamtzis, Nikolaos; Pappa, Athina

2014-06-01

Long term fire retardant (LTR) application for forest fire prevention purposes as well as wildland fires can result in chemical leaching from forest soils. Large quantities of sodium (Na), aluminium (Al), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), copper (Cu) and silicon (Si) in leachates, mainly due to ammonium (one of the major LTR components) soil deposition, could affect the groundwater quality. The leaching of Na, Al, Fe, Mn, Cu and Si due to nitrogen based LTR application (Fire Trol 931) was studied at laboratory scale. The concentrations of Na(+), Al(3+), Fe(3+)/Fe(2+), Mn(2+), Cu(2+) and Si(4+) were measured in the resulting leachates from pots with forest soil and pine trees alone and in combination with fire. The leaching of Na, Fe and Si from treated pots was significantly greater than that from control pots. The leaching of Al, Mn and Cu was extremely low.

Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior.

PubMed

Valori, Luca; Picciolo, Francesco; Allansdottir, Agnes; Garlaschelli, Diego

2012-01-24

An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that interopinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly robust to modifications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence in a diverse range of online and offline settings.

Commentary: Urgent need for large-scale warming manipulation experiments in tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavaleri, M. A.; Wood, T. E.; Reed, S.

2013-12-01

Tropical forests represent the largest fluxes of carbon into and out of the atmosphere of any terrestrial ecosystem type on earth. Despite their clear biogeochemical importance, responses of tropical forests to global warming are more uncertain than for any other biome. This uncertainty stems primarily from a lack of mechanistic data, in part because warming manipulation field experiments have been located almost exclusively in higher latitude systems. As a result of the large fluxes, lack of data, and high uncertainty, recent studies have highlighted the tropics as a 'high priority region' for future climate change research. We argue that warming manipulation experiments are urgently needed in tropical forests that are: 1) single-factor, 2) large-scale, and 3) long-term. The emergence of a novel heat regime is predicted for the tropics within the next two decades, and tropical forest trees may be more susceptible to warming than previously thought. Over a decade of Free Air CO2 Enrichment experiments have shown that single-factor studies that integrate above- and belowground function can be the most informative and efficient means of informing models, which can then be used to determine interactive effects of multiple factors. Warming both above- and below-ground parts of an ecosystem would be fundamental to the understanding of whole-ecosystem and net carbon responses because of the multiple feedbacks between tree canopy, root, and soil function. Finally, evidence from high-latitude warming experiments highlight the importance of long-term studies by suggesting that key processes related to carbon cycling, like soil respiration, could acclimate with extended warming. Despite the fact that there has never been a long-term ecosystem-level warming experiment in any forest, the technology is available, and momentum is gathering. In order to study the effects of warming on tropical forests, which contribute disproportionately to global carbon balance, full-scale ecosystem warming experiments are imperative.

Large-scale flow experiments for managing river systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Olden, Julian D.; Lytle, David A.; Melis, Theodore S.; Schmidt, John C.; Bray, Erin N.; Freeman, Mary C.; Gido, Keith B.; Hemphill, Nina P.; Kennard, Mark J.; McMullen, Laura E.; Mims, Meryl C.; Pyron, Mark; Robinson, Christopher T.; Williams, John G.

2011-01-01

Experimental manipulations of streamflow have been used globally in recent decades to mitigate the impacts of dam operations on river systems. Rivers are challenging subjects for experimentation, because they are open systems that cannot be isolated from their social context. We identify principles to address the challenges of conducting effective large-scale flow experiments. Flow experiments have both scientific and social value when they help to resolve specific questions about the ecological action of flow with a clear nexus to water policies and decisions. Water managers must integrate new information into operating policies for large-scale experiments to be effective. Modeling and monitoring can be integrated with experiments to analyze long-term ecological responses. Experimental design should include spatially extensive observations and well-defined, repeated treatments. Large-scale flow manipulations are only a part of dam operations that affect river systems. Scientists can ensure that experimental manipulations continue to be a valuable approach for the scientifically based management of river systems.

Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.

2006-12-01

Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models that incorporate fine-scale landscape structure and its changes over time.

Forecasting of magnitude and duration of currency crises based on the analysis of distortions of fractal scaling in exchange rate fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uritskaya, Olga Y.

2005-05-01

Results of fractal stability analysis of daily exchange rate fluctuations of more than 30 floating currencies for a 10-year period are presented. It is shown for the first time that small- and large-scale dynamical instabilities of national monetary systems correlate with deviations of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) exponent from the value 1.5 predicted by the efficient market hypothesis. The observed dependence is used for classification of long-term stability of floating exchange rates as well as for revealing various forms of distortion of stable currency dynamics prior to large-scale crises. A normal range of DFA exponents consistent with crisis-free long-term exchange rate fluctuations is determined, and several typical scenarios of unstable currency dynamics with DFA exponents fluctuating beyond the normal range are identified. It is shown that monetary crashes are usually preceded by prolonged periods of abnormal (decreased or increased) DFA exponent, with the after-crash exponent tending to the value 1.5 indicating a more reliable exchange rate dynamics. Statistically significant regression relations (R=0.99, p<0.01) between duration and magnitude of currency crises and the degree of distortion of monofractal patterns of exchange rate dynamics are found. It is demonstrated that the parameters of these relations characterizing small- and large-scale crises are nearly equal, which implies a common instability mechanism underlying these events. The obtained dependences have been used as a basic ingredient of a forecasting technique which provided correct in-sample predictions of monetary crisis magnitude and duration over various time scales. The developed technique can be recommended for real-time monitoring of dynamical stability of floating exchange rate systems and creating advanced early-warning-system models for currency crisis prevention.

The importance of within-year repeated counts and the influence of scale on long-term monitoring of sage-grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, B.C.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2011-01-01

Long-term population monitoring is the cornerstone of animal conservation and management. The accuracy and precision of models developed using monitoring data can be influenced by the protocols guiding data collection. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a species of concern that has been monitored over decades, primarily, by counting the number of males that attend lek (breeding) sites. These lek count data have been used to assess long-term population trends and for multiple mechanistic studies. However, some studies have questioned the efficacy of lek counts to accurately identify population trends. In response, monitoring protocols were changed to have a goal of counting lek sites multiple times within a season. We assessed the influence of this change in monitoring protocols on model accuracy and precision applying generalized additive models to describe trends over time. We found that at large spatial scales including >50 leks, the absence of repeated counts within a year did not significantly alter population trend estimates or interpretation. Increasing sample size decreased the model confidence intervals. We developed a population trend model for Wyoming greater sage-grouse from 1965 to 2008, identifying significant changes in the population indices and capturing the cyclic nature of this species. Most sage-grouse declines in Wyoming occurred between 1965 and the 1990s and lek count numbers generally increased from the mid-1990s to 2008. Our results validate the combination of monitoring data collected under different protocols in past and future studies-provided those studies are addressing large-scale questions. We suggest that a larger sample of individual leks is preferable to multiple counts of a smaller sample of leks. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

New synchrotron powder diffraction facility for long-duration experiments

PubMed Central

Murray, Claire A.; Potter, Jonathan; Day, Sarah J.; Baker, Annabelle R.; Thompson, Stephen P.; Kelly, Jon; Morris, Christopher G.; Tang, Chiu C.

2017-01-01

A new synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction instrument has been built and commissioned for long-duration experiments on beamline I11 at Diamond Light Source. The concept is unique, with design features to house multiple experiments running in parallel, in particular with specific stages for sample environments to study slow kinetic systems or processes. The instrument benefits from a high-brightness X-ray beam and a large area detector. Diffraction data from the commissioning work have shown that the objectives and criteria are met. Supported by two case studies, the results from months of measurements have demonstrated the viability of this large-scale instrument, which is the world’s first dedicated facility for long-term studies (weeks to years) using synchrotron radiation. PMID:28190992

A long view of global plutonium management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagner, R.L. Jr.

1995-10-01

Dealing with the large and growing world inventories of fissile materials from all sources is a major part of the long term challenge of limiting the danger from nuclear weapons. Providing clean, safe nuclear power may also be needed to prevent conditions from arising which could lead to large scale nuclear weapon (re)armament. ADTT technologies might reconcile the seeming dilemma of providing nuclear power while maintaining a very low world inventory of nuclear materials which can be used in weapons. This vision for ADTT should be tested in a variety of ways, including comparisons with competing approaches and with othermore » objectives. Such testing is one part of constructing a path for a decades-long, worldwide implementation campaign for ADTT.« less

Hydrological response of karst systems to large-scale climate variability for different catchments of the French karst observatory network INSU/CNRS SNO KARST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Labat, David; Jourde, Hervé; Lecoq, Nicolas; Mazzilli, Naomi

2017-04-01

The french karst observatory network SNO KARST is a national initiative from the National Institute for Earth Sciences and Astronomy (INSU) of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS). It is also part of the new french research infrastructure for the observation of the critical zone OZCAR. SNO KARST is composed by several karst sites distributed over conterminous France which are located in different physiographic and climatic contexts (Mediterranean, Pyrenean, Jura mountain, western and northwestern shore near the Atlantic or the English Channel). This allows the scientific community to develop advanced research and experiments dedicated to improve understanding of the hydrological functioning of karst catchments. Here we used several sites of SNO KARST in order to assess the hydrological response of karst catchments to long-term variation of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Using NCEP reanalysis products and karst discharge, we analyzed the links between large-scale circulation and karst water resources variability. As karst hydrosystems are highly heterogeneous media, they behave differently across different time-scales : we explore the large-scale/local-scale relationships according to time-scales using a wavelet multiresolution approach of both karst hydrological variables and large-scale climate fields such as sea level pressure (SLP). The different wavelet components of karst discharge in response to the corresponding wavelet component of climate fields are either 1) compared to physico-chemical/geochemical responses at karst springs, or 2) interpreted in terms of hydrological functioning by comparing discharge wavelet components to internal components obtained from precipitation/discharge models using the KARSTMOD conceptual modeling platform of SNO KARST.

Variations in Global Precipitation: Climate-scale to Floods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert

2006-01-01

Variations in global precipitation from climate-scale to small scale are examined using satellite-based analyses of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 27- year (1979-2005) monthly dataset from the GPCP. In addition to global patterns associated with phenomena such as ENSO, the data set is explored for evidence of longterm change. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate a small upward trend in the Tropics (25S-25N), especially over ocean. Techniques are derived to isolate and eliminate variations due to ENS0 and major volcanic eruptions and the significance of the trend is examined. The status of TRMM estimates is examined in terms of evaluating and improving the long-term global data set. To look at rainfall variations on a much smaller scale TRMM data is used in combination with observations from other satellites to produce a 3-hr resolution, eight-year data set for examination of weather events and for practical applications such as detecting floods. Characteristics of the data set are presented and examples of recent flood events are examined.

Farming for Ecosystem Services: An Ecological Approach to Production Agriculture

PubMed Central

Philip Robertson, G.; Gross, Katherine L.; Hamilton, Stephen K.; Landis, Douglas A.; Schmidt, Thomas M.; Snapp, Sieglinde S.; Swinton, Scott M.

2014-01-01

A balanced assessment of ecosystem services provided by agriculture requires a systems-level socioecological understanding of related management practices at local to landscape scales. The results from 25 years of observation and experimentation at the Kellogg Biological Station long-term ecological research site reveal services that could be provided by intensive row-crop ecosystems. In addition to high yields, farms could be readily managed to contribute clean water, biocontrol and other biodiversity benefits, climate stabilization, and long-term soil fertility, thereby helping meet society's need for agriculture that is economically and environmentally sustainable. Midwest farmers—especially those with large farms—appear willing to adopt practices that deliver these services in exchange for payments scaled to management complexity and farmstead benefit. Surveyed citizens appear willing to pay farmers for the delivery of specific services, such as cleaner lakes. A new farming for services paradigm in US agriculture seems feasible and could be environmentally significant. PMID:26955069

Farming for Ecosystem Services: An Ecological Approach to Production Agriculture.

PubMed

Philip Robertson, G; Gross, Katherine L; Hamilton, Stephen K; Landis, Douglas A; Schmidt, Thomas M; Snapp, Sieglinde S; Swinton, Scott M

2014-05-01

A balanced assessment of ecosystem services provided by agriculture requires a systems-level socioecological understanding of related management practices at local to landscape scales. The results from 25 years of observation and experimentation at the Kellogg Biological Station long-term ecological research site reveal services that could be provided by intensive row-crop ecosystems. In addition to high yields, farms could be readily managed to contribute clean water, biocontrol and other biodiversity benefits, climate stabilization, and long-term soil fertility, thereby helping meet society's need for agriculture that is economically and environmentally sustainable. Midwest farmers-especially those with large farms-appear willing to adopt practices that deliver these services in exchange for payments scaled to management complexity and farmstead benefit. Surveyed citizens appear willing to pay farmers for the delivery of specific services, such as cleaner lakes. A new farming for services paradigm in US agriculture seems feasible and could be environmentally significant.

The MMPI-2 in chronic psychiatric illness.

PubMed

Bosch, Peggy; Van Luijtelaar, Gilles; Van Den Noort, Maurits; Schenkwald, Julia; Kueppenbender, Nicole; Lim, Sabina; Egger, Jos; Coenen, Anton

2014-10-01

While previous studies on the MMPI-2 in patients with schizophrenia and depression have used mixed samples of both early stage and chronic psychiatric patients. Here, it is investigated whether chronicity itself might have a differential effect on the MMPI-2 profiles of these patients and whether demoralization 'associated with long-term illness' affects the scales of the MMPI-2. Thirty long-term patients with schizophrenia, 30 long-term patients with depression, and 30 healthy participants completed the MMPI-2. Groups were compared on Clinical Scales and on the Restructured Clinical (RC) Scales. Patients with schizophrenia differed from patients with depression on 14 MMPI-2 scales and from healthy controls on 10 scales, generally showing mean UT-scores < 65, indicating a subjective experience of (near) normal functioning. Patients with depression differed from healthy controls on 17 scales mostly with UT-scores > 65, indicating impaired functioning. Demoralization was higher in patients with depression than in patients with schizophrenia and both psychiatric groups differed from the healthy control group. It is concluded that long-term patients with depression show impaired functioning and high demoralization, while long-term patients with schizophrenia surprisingly show near normal functioning and less demoralization. © 2014 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Large-scale conservation assessment for Neotropical migratory land birds in the interior Columbia River basin.

Treesearch

Victoria A. Saab; Terrell D. Rich

1997-01-01

The status and habitats of Neotropical migratory land birds (NTMB) are evaluated within the interior Columbia River basin (interior basin). Objectives are to examine population trends, estimate NTMB responses to alternative management activities, and provide recommendations by habitat and species for the long-term persistence of NTMB populations. Among 132 NTMBs that...

Modeling fire and other disturbance processes using LANDIS

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Jian Yang; Hong He

2009-01-01

LANDIS is a landscape decision support tool that models spatial relationships to help managers and planners examine the large-scale, long-term, cumulative effects of succession, harvesting, wildfire, prescribed fire, insects, and disease. It can operate on forest landscapes from a few thousand to a few million acres in extent. Fire modeling capabilities in LANDIS are...

The battle against bark beetles in Crater Lake National Park: 1925-34

Treesearch

B.E. Wickman

1987-01-01

This history records the first large-scale bark beetle control project in a national park in the Pacific Northwest. It describes the relations between Park Service, Forest Service, and USDA Bureau of Entomology personnel; how the project was organized; the ecological implications of the outbreak; and the long-term results of direct control measures.

Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II

Treesearch

Nathan R. De Jager; Patrick J. Drohan; Brian M. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Susan L. Stout; Alejandro A. Royo; Eric J. Gustafson; Mark C. Romanski

2017-01-01

Browsing ungulates alter forest productivity and vegetation succession through selective foraging onspecies that often dominate early succession. However, the long-term and large-scale effects of browsing on forest succession are not possible to project without the use of simulation models. To explore the effects of ungulates on succession in a spatially explicit...

The hardwood ecosystem experiment: extension and outreach

Treesearch

Brian J. MacGowan; Lenny D. Farlee; Robert N. Chapman

2013-01-01

The Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment (HEE) in Indiana is a long-term, large-scale experimental study of forest management and its impacts on plants and animals. Information from the HEE should and will be made available to a diverse group of potential users. This paper summarizes educational efforts during the pre-treatment period and highlights potential mechanisms and...

Temporal scale dependent interactions between multiple environmental disturbances in microcosm ecosystems.

PubMed

Garnier, Aurélie; Pennekamp, Frank; Lemoine, Mélissa; Petchey, Owen L

2017-12-01

Global environmental change has negative impacts on ecological systems, impacting the stable provision of functions, goods, and services. Whereas effects of individual environmental changes (e.g. temperature change or change in resource availability) are reasonably well understood, we lack information about if and how multiple changes interact. We examined interactions among four types of environmental disturbance (temperature, nutrient ratio, carbon enrichment, and light) in a fully factorial design using a microbial aquatic ecosystem and observed responses of dissolved oxygen saturation at three temporal scales (resistance, resilience, and return time). We tested whether multiple disturbances combine in a dominant, additive, or interactive fashion, and compared the predictability of dissolved oxygen across scales. Carbon enrichment and shading reduced oxygen concentration in the short term (i.e. resistance); although no other effects or interactions were statistically significant, resistance decreased as the number of disturbances increased. In the medium term, only enrichment accelerated recovery, but none of the other effects (including interactions) were significant. In the long term, enrichment and shading lengthened return times, and we found significant two-way synergistic interactions between disturbances. The best performing model (dominant, additive, or interactive) depended on the temporal scale of response. In the short term (i.e. for resistance), the dominance model predicted resistance of dissolved oxygen best, due to a large effect of carbon enrichment, whereas none of the models could predict the medium term (i.e. resilience). The long-term response was best predicted by models including interactions among disturbances. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the temporal scale of responses when researching the effects of environmental disturbances on ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Treatment of a Focal Articular Cartilage Defect of the Talus with Polymer-Based Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation: A 12-Year Follow-Up Period.

PubMed

Kreuz, Peter Cornelius; Kalkreuth, Richard Horst; Niemeyer, Philipp; Uhl, Markus; Erggelet, Christoph

Autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI) is a first-line treatment option for large articular cartilage defects. Although well-established for cartilage defects in the knee, studies of the long-term outcomes of matrix-assisted ACI to treat cartilage defects in the ankle are rare. In the present report, we describe for the first time the long-term clinical and radiologic results 12 years after polymer-based matrix-assisted ACI treat a full-thickness talar cartilage defect in a 25-year-old male patient. The clinical outcome was assessed using the visual analog scale and Freiburg ankle score, magnetic resonance imaging evaluation using the Henderson-Kreuz scoring system and T2 mapping. Clinical assessment revealed improved visual analog scale and Freiburg ankle scores. The radiologic analysis and T2 relaxation time values indicated the formation of hyaline-like repair tissue. Polymer-based autologous chondrocytes has been shown to be a safe and clinically effective long-term treatment of articular cartilage defects in the talus. Copyright © 2017 American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reproducing the scaling laws for Slow and Fast ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanet, Pierre; Bhat, Harsha; Madariaga, Raúl

2017-04-01

Modelling long term behaviour of large, natural fault systems, that are geometrically complex, is a challenging problem. This is why most of the research so far has concentrated on modelling the long term response of single planar fault system. To overcome this limitation, we appeal to a novel algorithm called the Fast Multipole Method which was developed in the context of modelling gravitational N-body problems. This method allows us to decrease the computational complexity of the calculation from O(N2) to O(N log N), N being the number of discretised elements on the fault. We then adapted this method to model the long term quasi-dynamic response of two faults, with step-over like geometry, that are governed by rate and state friction laws. We assume the faults have spatially uniform rate weakening friction. The results show that when stress interaction between faults is accounted, a complex spectrum of slip (including slow-slip events, dynamic ruptures and partial ruptures) emerges naturally. The simulated slow-slip and dynamic events follow the scaling law inferred by Ide et al. 2007 i. e. M ∝ T for slow-slip events and M ∝ T2 (in 2D) for dynamic events.

Gained insights from combined high-frequency and long-term water quality monitoring in agricultural catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jomaa, Seifeddine; Dupas, Rémi; Musolff, Andreas; Rozemeijer, Joachim; Borchardt, Dietrich; Rode, Michael

2017-04-01

Despite extensive efforts to reduce nitrate (NO3) transfer in agricultural areas, the NO3 concentration in rivers often changes little. To investigate the reasons for this limited response, NO3 dynamics in a 100 km2 agricultural catchment in eastern Germany was analysed from decadal to infra-hourly time scales. First, Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) analysis of a 32-year (1982-2014) record of NO3 and discharge revealed that i) the long-term trend in NO3 concentration was closely related to that in discharge, suggesting that large-scale weather and climate patterns were masking the effect of improved nitrogen management on NO3 trends; ii) maximum winter and minimum summer concentrations had a persistent seasonal pattern, which was interpreted as a dynamic NO3 concentration from the soil and subsoil columns; and iii) the catchment progressively changed from chemodynamic to more chemostatic behaviour over the three decades of study, which is a sign of long-term homogenisation of NO3 concentrations in the profile. Second, infra-hourly (15 min time interval) analysis of storm-event dynamics during a typical hydrological year (2005-2006) was performed to identify periods of the year with high leaching risk and to link the latter to agricultural management practices in the catchment. Also, intra-hourly data was used to improve NO3 load estimation during storm events. An Event Response Reconstruction (ERR) model was built using NO3 concentration response descriptor variables and predictor variables deduced from discharge and precipitation records. The ERR approach significantly improved NO3 load estimates compared to linear interpolation of grab-sampling data (error was reduced from 10 to 1%). Finally, this study shows that detailed physical understanding of NO3 dynamics across time scales can be obtained only through combined analysis of long-term records and high-resolution sensor data. Hence, a joint effort is advocated between environmental authorities, who usually perform long-term monitoring, and scientific programmes, which usually perform high-resolution monitoring.

Covariation of climate and long-term erosion rates acrossa steep rainfall gradient on the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ken Ferrier,; J. Taylor Perron,; Sujoy Mukhopadhyay,; Matt Rosener,; Stock, Jonathan; Slosberg, Michelle; Kimberly L. Huppert,

2013-01-01

Erosion of volcanic ocean islands creates dramatic landscapes, modulates Earth’s carbon cycle, and delivers sediment to coasts and reefs. Because many volcanic islands have large climate gradients and minimal variations in lithology and tectonic history, they are excellent natural laboratories for studying climatic effects on the evolution of topography. Despite concerns that modern sediment fluxes to island coasts may exceed long-term fluxes, little is known about how erosion rates and processes vary across island interiors, how erosion rates are influenced by the strong climate gradients on many islands, and how modern island erosion rates compare to long-term rates. Here, we present new measurements of erosion rates over 5 yr to 5 m.y. timescales on the Hawaiian island of Kaua‘i, across which mean annual precipitation ranges from 0.5 to 9.5 m/yr. Eroded rock volumes from basins across Kaua‘i indicate that million-year-scale erosion rates are correlated with modern mean annual precipitation and range from 8 to 335 t km–2 yr–1. In Kaua‘i’s Hanalei River basin, 3He concentrations in detrital olivines imply millennial-scale erosion rates of >126 to >390 t km–2 yr–1 from olivine-bearing hillslopes, while fluvial suspended sediment fluxes measured from 2004 to 2009 plus estimates of chemical and bed-load fluxes imply basin-averaged erosion rates of 545 ± 128 t km–2 yr–1. Mapping of landslide scars in satellite imagery of the Hanalei basin from 2004 and 2010 implies landslide-driven erosion rates of 30–47 t km–2 yr–1. These measurements imply that modern erosion rates in the Hanalei basin are no more than 2.3 ± 0.6 times faster than millennial-scale erosion rates, and, to the extent that modern precipitation patterns resemble long-term patterns, they are consistent with a link between precipitation rates and long-term erosion rates.

The dilemma of controlling cultural eutrophication of lakes

PubMed Central

Schindler, David W.

2012-01-01

The management of eutrophication has been impeded by reliance on short-term experimental additions of nutrients to bottles and mesocosms. These measures of proximate nutrient limitation fail to account for the gradual changes in biogeochemical nutrient cycles and nutrient fluxes from sediments, and succession of communities that are important components of whole-ecosystem responses. Erroneous assumptions about ecosystem processes and lack of accounting for hysteresis during lake recovery have further confused management of eutrophication. I conclude that long-term, whole-ecosystem experiments and case histories of lake recovery provide the only reliable evidence for policies to reduce eutrophication. The only method that has had proven success in reducing the eutrophication of lakes is reducing input of phosphorus. There are no case histories or long-term ecosystem-scale experiments to support recent claims that to reduce eutrophication of lakes, nitrogen must be controlled instead of or in addition to phosphorus. Before expensive policies to reduce nitrogen input are implemented, they require ecosystem-scale verification. The recent claim that the ‘phosphorus paradigm’ for recovering lakes from eutrophication has been ‘eroded’ has no basis. Instead, the case for phosphorus control has been strengthened by numerous case histories and large-scale experiments spanning several decades. PMID:22915669

SOLAR SYSTEM MOONS AS ANALOGS FOR COMPACT EXOPLANETARY SYSTEMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kane, Stephen R.; Hinkel, Natalie R.; Raymond, Sean N., E-mail: skane@ipac.caltech.edu

2013-11-01

The field of exoplanetary science has experienced a recent surge of new systems that is largely due to the precision photometry provided by the Kepler mission. The latest discoveries have included compact planetary systems in which the orbits of the planets all lie relatively close to the host star, which presents interesting challenges in terms of formation and dynamical evolution. The compact exoplanetary systems are analogous to the moons orbiting the giant planets in our solar system, in terms of their relative sizes and semimajor axes. We present a study that quantifies the scaled sizes and separations of the solarmore » system moons with respect to their hosts. We perform a similar study for a large sample of confirmed Kepler planets in multi-planet systems. We show that a comparison between the two samples leads to a similar correlation between their scaled sizes and separation distributions. The different gradients of the correlations may be indicative of differences in the formation and/or long-term dynamics of moon and planetary systems.« less

Adverse Events Associated with Prolonged Antibiotic Use

PubMed Central

Meropol, Sharon B.; Chan, K. Arnold; Chen, Zhen; Finkelstein, Jonathan A.; Hennessy, Sean; Lautenbach, Ebbing; Platt, Richard; Schech, Stephanie D.; Shatin, Deborah; Metlay, Joshua P.

2014-01-01

Purpose The Infectious Diseases Society of America and US CDC recommend 60 days of ciprofloxacin, doxycycline or amoxicillin for anthrax prophylaxis. It is not possible to determine severe adverse drug event (ADE) risks from the few people thus far exposed to anthrax prophylaxis. This study’s objective was to estimate risks of severe ADEs associated with long-term ciprofloxacin, doxycycline and amoxicillin exposure using 3 large databases: one electronic medical record (General Practice Research Database) and two claims databases (UnitedHealthcare, HMO Research Network). Methods We include office visit, hospital admission and prescription data for 1/1/1999–6/30/2001. Exposure variable was oral antibiotic person-days (pds). Primary outcome was hospitalization during exposure with ADE diagnoses: anaphylaxis, phototoxicity, hepatotoxicity, nephrotoxicity, seizures, ventricular arrhythmia or infectious colitis. Results We randomly sampled 999,773, 1,047,496 and 1,819,004 patients from Databases A, B and C respectively. 33,183 amoxicillin, 15,250 ciprofloxacin and 50,171 doxycycline prescriptions continued ≥30 days. ADE hospitalizations during long-term exposure were not observed in Database A. ADEs during long-term amoxicillin were seen only in Database C with 5 ADEs or 1.2(0.4–2.7) ADEs/100,000 pds exposure. Long-term ciprofloxacin showed 3 and 4 ADEs with 5.7(1.2–16.6) and 3.5(1.0–9.0) ADEs/100,000 pds in Databases B and C, respectively. Only Database B had ADEs during long-term doxycycline with 3 ADEs or 0.9(0.2–2.6) ADEs/100,000 pds. For most events, the incidence rate ratio, comparing >28 vs.1–28 pds exposure was <1, showing limited evidence for cumulative dose-related ADEs from long-term exposure. Conclusions Long-term amoxicillin, ciprofloxacin and doxycycline appears safe, supporting use of these medications if needed for large-scale post-exposure anthrax prophylaxis. PMID:18215001

Results of Long Term Life Tests of Large Scale Lithium-Ion Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, Takefumi; Imamura, Nobutaka; Miyanaga, Naozumi; Yoshida, Hiroaki; Komada, Kanemi

2008-09-01

High energy density Li-ion cells have been introduced to latest satellites and another space usage. We have started development of large scale Li-ion cells for space applications in 1997. The chemical design was fixed in 1999.It is very important to confirm life performance to apply satellite applications because it requires long mission life such as 15 years for GEO and 5 to 7 years for LEO. Therefore we started life test at various conditions. And the tests have reached 8 to 9 years in actual calendar time. Semi - accelerated GEO tests which gives both calendar and cycle loss have been reached 42 season that corresponds 21 years in orbit. The specific energy range is 120 - 130 Wh/kg at EOL. According to the test results, we have confirmed that our Li-ion cell meets general requirements for space application such as GEO and LEO with quite high specific energy.

Oscillatory mechanisms of process binding in memory.

PubMed

Klimesch, Wolfgang; Freunberger, Roman; Sauseng, Paul

2010-06-01

A central topic in cognitive neuroscience is the question, which processes underlie large scale communication within and between different neural networks. The basic assumption is that oscillatory phase synchronization plays an important role for process binding--the transient linking of different cognitive processes--which may be considered a special type of large scale communication. We investigate this question for memory processes on the basis of different types of oscillatory synchronization mechanisms. The reviewed findings suggest that theta and alpha phase coupling (and phase reorganization) reflect control processes in two large memory systems, a working memory and a complex knowledge system that comprises semantic long-term memory. It is suggested that alpha phase synchronization may be interpreted in terms of processes that coordinate top-down control (a process guided by expectancy to focus on relevant search areas) and access to memory traces (a process leading to the activation of a memory trace). An analogous interpretation is suggested for theta oscillations and the controlled access to episodic memories. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-concept and quality of object relations as predictors of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Lindfors, Olavi; Knekt, Paul; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa

2014-01-01

Quality of object relations and self-concept reflect clinically relevant aspects of personality functioning, but their prediction as suitability factors for psychotherapies of different lengths has not been compared. This study compared their prediction on psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- and long-term psychotherapy. Altogether 326 patients, 20-46 years of age, with mood and/or anxiety disorder, were randomized to short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) psychotherapy and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. The Quality of Object Relations Scale (QORS) and the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (SASB) self-concept questionnaire were measured at baseline, and their prediction on outcome during the 3-year follow-up was assessed by the Symptom Check List Global Severity Index and the Anxiety Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory and by the Work Ability Index, Social Adjustment Scale work subscale and the Perceived Psychological Functioning scale. Negative self-concept strongly and self-controlling characteristics modestly predicted better 3-year outcomes in long-term therapy, after faster early gains in short-term therapy. Patients with a more positive or self-emancipating self-concept, or more mature object relations, experienced more extensive benefits after long-term psychotherapy. The importance of length vs. long-term therapy technique on the differences found is not known. Patients with mild to moderate personality pathology, indicated by poor self-concept, seem to benefit more from long-term than short-term psychotherapy, in reducing risk of depression. Long-term therapy may also be indicated for patients with relatively good psychological functioning. More research is needed on the relative importance of these characteristics in comparison with other patient-related factors. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Holographic renormalization group and cosmology in theories with quasilocalized gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csáki, Csaba; Erlich, Joshua; Hollowood, Timothy J.; Terning, John

2001-03-01

We study the long distance behavior of brane theories with quasilocalized gravity. The five-dimensional (5D) effective theory at large scales follows from a holographic renormalization group flow. As intuitively expected, the graviton is effectively four dimensional at intermediate scales and becomes five dimensional at large scales. However, in the holographic effective theory the essentially 4D radion dominates at long distances and gives rise to scalar antigravity. The holographic description shows that at large distances the Gregory-Rubakov-Sibiryakov (GRS) model is equivalent to the model recently proposed by Dvali, Gabadadze, and Porrati (DGP), where a tensionless brane is embedded into 5D Minkowski space, with an additional induced 4D Einstein-Hilbert term on the brane. In the holographic description the radion of the GRS model is automatically localized on the tensionless brane, and provides the ghostlike field necessary to cancel the extra graviton polarization of the DGP model. Thus, there is a holographic duality between these theories. This analysis provides physical insight into how the GRS model works at intermediate scales; in particular it sheds light on the size of the width of the graviton resonance, and also demonstrates how the holographic renormalization group can be used as a practical tool for calculations.

Holographic renormalization group and cosmology in theories with quasilocalized gravity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Csaki, Csaba; Erlich, Joshua; Hollowood, Timothy J.

2001-03-15

We study the long distance behavior of brane theories with quasilocalized gravity. The five-dimensional (5D) effective theory at large scales follows from a holographic renormalization group flow. As intuitively expected, the graviton is effectively four dimensional at intermediate scales and becomes five dimensional at large scales. However, in the holographic effective theory the essentially 4D radion dominates at long distances and gives rise to scalar antigravity. The holographic description shows that at large distances the Gregory-Rubakov-Sibiryakov (GRS) model is equivalent to the model recently proposed by Dvali, Gabadadze, and Porrati (DGP), where a tensionless brane is embedded into 5D Minkowskimore » space, with an additional induced 4D Einstein-Hilbert term on the brane. In the holographic description the radion of the GRS model is automatically localized on the tensionless brane, and provides the ghostlike field necessary to cancel the extra graviton polarization of the DGP model. Thus, there is a holographic duality between these theories. This analysis provides physical insight into how the GRS model works at intermediate scales; in particular it sheds light on the size of the width of the graviton resonance, and also demonstrates how the holographic renormalization group can be used as a practical tool for calculations.« less

A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009–11

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cradden, Lucy C.; McDermott, Frank

2018-05-01

Prolonged cold spells were experienced in Ireland in the winters of 2009–10 and 2010–11, and electricity demand was relatively high at these times, whilst wind generation capacity factors were low. Such situations can cause difficulties for an electricity system with a high dependence on wind energy. Studying the atmospheric conditions associated with these two winters offers insights into the large-scale drivers for cold, calm spells, and helps to evaluate if they are rare events over the long-term. The influence of particular atmospheric patterns on coincidental winter wind generation and weather-related electricity demand is investigated here, with a focus on blocking in the North Atlantic/European sector. The occurrences of such patterns in the 2009–10 and 2010–11 winters are examined, and 2010–11 in particular was found to be unusual in a long-term context. The results are discussed in terms of the relevance to long-term planning and investment in the electricity system.

Detection of Variation in Long-Term Micropropagated Mature Pistachio via DNA-Based Molecular Markers.

PubMed

Akdemir, Hülya; Suzerer, Veysel; Tilkat, Engin; Onay, Ahmet; Çiftçi, Yelda Ozden

2016-12-01

Determination of genetic stability of in vitro-grown plantlets is needed for safe and large-scale production of mature trees. In this study, genetic variation of long-term micropropagated mature pistachio developed through direct shoot bud regeneration using apical buds (protocol A) and in vitro-derived leaves (protocol B) was assessed via DNA-based molecular markers. Randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD), inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR), and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) were employed, and the obtained PIC values from RAPD (0.226), ISSR (0.220), and AFLP (0.241) showed that micropropagation of pistachio for different periods of time resulted in "reasonable polymorphism" among donor plant and its 18 clones. Mantel's test showed a consistence polymorphism level between marker systems based on similarity matrices. In conclusion, this is the first study on occurrence of genetic variability in long-term micropropagated mature pistachio plantlets. The obtained results clearly indicated that different marker approaches used in this study are reliable for assessing tissue culture-induced variations in long-term cultured pistachio plantlets.

A multiscale climate emulator for long-term morphodynamics (MUSCLE-morpho)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolínez, José Antonio A.; Méndez, Fernando J.; Camus, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; González, E. Mauricio; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick

2016-01-01

Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K. J.; Stockle, C. O.; Nelson, R. L.; Kruger, C. E.; Brady, M. P.; Malek, K.; Dinesh, S. T.; Barber, M. E.; Hamlet, A. F.; Yorgey, G. G.; Adam, J. C.

2018-03-01

Adaptation to a changing climate is critical to address future global food and water security challenges. While these challenges are global, successful adaptation strategies are often generated at regional scales; therefore, regional-scale studies are critical to inform adaptation decision making. While climate change affects both water supply and demand, water demand is relatively understudied, especially at regional scales. The goal of this work is to address this gap, and characterize the direct impacts of near-term (for the 2030s) climate change and elevated CO2 levels on regional-scale crop yields and irrigation demands for the Columbia River basin (CRB). This question is addressed through a coupled crop-hydrology model that accounts for site-specific and crop-specific characteristics that control regional-scale response to climate change. The overall near-term outlook for agricultural production in the CRB is largely positive, with yield increases for most crops and small overall increases in irrigation demand. However, there are crop-specific and location-specific negative impacts as well, and the aggregate regional response of irrigation demands to climate change is highly sensitive to the spatial crop mix. Low-value pasture/hay varieties of crops—typically not considered in climate change assessments—play a significant role in determining the regional response of irrigation demands to climate change, and thus cannot be overlooked. While, the overall near-term outlook for agriculture in the region is largely positive, there may be potential for a negative outlook further into the future, and it is important to consider this in long-term planning.

Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several drawbacks reported in traditional approaches for the derived flood frequency analysis and therefore is recommended for large scale flood risk case studies.

Policy Guidance From a Multi-scale Suite of Natural Field and Digital Laboratories of Change: Hydrological Catchment Studies of Nutrient and Pollutant Source Releases, Waterborne Transport-Transformations and Mass Flows in Water Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destouni, G.

2008-12-01

Continental fresh water transports and loads excess nutrients and pollutants from various land surface sources, through the landscape, into downstream inland and coastal water environments. Our ability to understand, predict and control the eutrophication and the pollution pressures on inland, coastal and marine water ecosystems relies on our ability to quantify these mass flows. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro- biogeochemical studies of nutrient and pollutant sources, transport-transformations and mass flows in catchment areas across a range of scales, from continental, through regional and national, to individual drainage basin scales. Main findings on continental scales include correlations between country/catchment area, population and GDP and associated pollutant and nutrient loading, which differ significantly between world regions with different development levels. On regional scales, essential systematic near-coastal gaps are identified in the national monitoring of nutrient and pollutant loads from land to the sea. Combination of the unmonitored near-coastal area characteristics with the relevant regional nutrient and pollutant load correlations with these characteristics shows that the unmonitored nutrient and pollutant mass loads to the sea may often be as large as, or greater than the monitored river loads. Process studies on individual basin- scales show long-term nutrient and pollutant memories in the soil-groundwater systems of the basins, which may continue to uphold large mass loading to inland and coastal waters long time after mitigation of the sources. Linked hydro-biogeochemical-economic model studies finally demonstrate significant comparative advantages of policies that demand explicit quantitative account of the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model limitations, instead of the now common neglect or subjective implicit handling of such uncertainties in strategies and practices for combating water pollution and eutrophication.

Long-term effects of flipper bands on penguins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gauthier-Clerc, M.; Gendner, J.-P.; Ribic, C.A.; Fraser, William R.; Woehler, Eric J.; Descamps, S.; Gilly, C.; Le, Bohec C.; Le, Maho Y.

2004-01-01

Changes in seabird populations, and particularly of penguins, offer a unique opportunity for investigating the impact of fisheries and climatic variations on marine resources. Such investigations often require large-scale banding to identify individual birds, but the significance of the data relies on the assumption that no bias is introduced in this type of long-term monitoring. After 5 years of using an automated system of identification of king penguins implanted with electronic tags (100 adult king penguins were implanted with a transponder tag, 50 of which were also flipper banded), we can report that banding results in later arrival at the colony for courtship in some years, lower breeding probability and lower chick production. We also found that the survival rate of unbanded, electronically tagged king penguin chicks after 2-3 years is approximately twice as large as that reported in the literature for banded chicks. ?? 2004 The Royal Society.

Employers should disband employee weight control programs.

PubMed

Lewis, Alfred; Khanna, Vikram; Montrose, Shana

2015-02-01

American corporations continue to expand wellness programs, which now reach an estimated 90% of workers in large organizations, yet no study has demonstrated that the main focus of these programs-weight control-has any positive effect. There is no published evidence that large-scale corporate attempts to control employee body weight through financial incentives and penalties have generated savings from long-term weight loss, or a reduction in inpatient admissions associated with obesity or even long-term weight loss itself. Other evidence contradicts the hypothesis that population obesity rates meaningfully retard economic growth or manufacturing productivity. Quite the contrary, overscreening and crash dieting can impact employee morale and even harm employee health. Therefore, the authors believe that corporations should disband or significantly reconfigure weight-oriented wellness programs, and that the Affordable Care Act should be amended to require such programs to conform to accepted guidelines for harm avoidance.

Diel Surface Temperature Range Scales with Lake Size

PubMed Central

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Jones, Ian D.; Maberly, Stephen C.; French, Jon R.; Livingstone, David M.; Monteith, Donald T.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Thackeray, Stephen J.; Andersen, Mikkel R.; Battarbee, Richard W.; DeGasperi, Curtis L.; Evans, Christopher D.; de Eyto, Elvira; Feuchtmayr, Heidrun; Hamilton, David P.; Kernan, Martin; Krokowski, Jan; Rimmer, Alon; Rose, Kevin C.; Rusak, James A.; Ryves, David B.; Scott, Daniel R.; Shilland, Ewan M.; Smyth, Robyn L.; Staehr, Peter A.; Thomas, Rhian; Waldron, Susan; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

2016-01-01

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored. PMID:27023200

Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark L.; Mueller, Valerie

2012-01-01

The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity. PMID:22474361

Integrating complexity into data-driven multi-hazard supply chain network strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Suzanna K.; Shoberg, Thomas G.; Ramachandran, Varun; Corns, Steven M.; Carlo, Hector J.

2013-01-01

Major strategies in the wake of a large-scale disaster have focused on short-term emergency response solutions. Few consider medium-to-long-term restoration strategies that reconnect urban areas to the national supply chain networks (SCN) and their supporting infrastructure. To re-establish this connectivity, the relationships within the SCN must be defined and formulated as a model of a complex adaptive system (CAS). A CAS model is a representation of a system that consists of large numbers of inter-connections, demonstrates non-linear behaviors and emergent properties, and responds to stimulus from its environment. CAS modeling is an effective method of managing complexities associated with SCN restoration after large-scale disasters. In order to populate the data space large data sets are required. Currently access to these data is hampered by proprietary restrictions. The aim of this paper is to identify the data required to build a SCN restoration model, look at the inherent problems associated with these data, and understand the complexity that arises due to integration of these data.

Gram-scale synthesis of single-crystalline graphene quantum dots with superior optical properties.

PubMed

Wang, Liang; Wang, Yanli; Xu, Tao; Liao, Haobo; Yao, Chenjie; Liu, Yuan; Li, Zhen; Chen, Zhiwen; Pan, Dengyu; Sun, Litao; Wu, Minghong

2014-10-28

Graphene quantum dots (GQDs) have various alluring properties and potential applications, but their large-scale applications are limited by current synthetic methods that commonly produce GQDs in small amounts. Moreover, GQDs usually exhibit polycrystalline or highly defective structures and thus poor optical properties. Here we report the gram-scale synthesis of single-crystalline GQDs by a facile molecular fusion route under mild and green hydrothermal conditions. The synthesis involves the nitration of pyrene followed by hydrothermal treatment in alkaline aqueous solutions, where alkaline species play a crucial role in tuning their size, functionalization and optical properties. The single-crystalline GQDs are bestowed with excellent optical properties such as bright excitonic fluorescence, strong excitonic absorption bands extending to the visible region, large molar extinction coefficients and long-term photostability. These high-quality GQDs can find a large array of novel applications in bioimaging, biosensing, light emitting diodes, solar cells, hydrogen production, fuel cells and supercapacitors.

Testing the robustness of Citizen Science projects: Evaluating the results of pilot project COMBER.

PubMed

Chatzigeorgiou, Giorgos; Faulwetter, Sarah; Dailianis, Thanos; Smith, Vincent Stuart; Koulouri, Panagiota; Dounas, Costas; Arvanitidis, Christos

2016-01-01

Citizen Science (CS) as a term implies a great deal of approaches and scopes involving many different fields of science. The number of the relevant projects globally has been increased significantly in the recent years. Large scale ecological questions can be answered only through extended observation networks and CS projects can support this effort. Although the need of such projects is apparent, an important part of scientific community cast doubt on the reliability of CS data sets. The pilot CS project COMBER has been created in order to provide evidence to answer the aforementioned question in the coastal marine biodiversity monitoring. The results of the current analysis show that a carefully designed CS project with clear hypotheses, wide participation and data sets validation, can be a valuable tool for the large scale and long term changes in marine biodiversity pattern change and therefore for relevant management and conservation issues.

[Various methods of overcoming secondary resistance to treatment developing in relation to adaptation to psychotropic drugs during long-term treatment (clinico-experimental study)].

PubMed

Avrutskiĭ, G Ia; Allikmets, L Kh; Neduva, A A; Zharkovskiĭ, A M; Beliakov, A V

1984-01-01

Clinical and experimental studies into the phenomenon of adaptation to neuroleptic agents and into the methods of its overcoming were carried out. An experimental study of the long-term administrations of haloperidol revealed the formation of adaptation to the drug which can be overcome by a zigzag-like sharp elevation of the dosage followed by rapid reduction to the baseline level. The trial of this method under clinical conditions showed that it was expedient to use on a large scale the experimental findings on the specific features of the formation and prevention of the secondary therapeutic resistance.

Large-eddy simulation of flow in a plane, asymmetric diffuser

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaltenbach, Hans-Jakob

1993-01-01

Recent improvements in subgrid-scale modeling as well as increases in computer power make it feasible to investigate flows using large-eddy simulation (LES) which have been traditionally studied with techniques based on Reynolds averaging. However, LES has not yet been applied to many flows of immediate technical interest. Preliminary results from LES of a plane diffuser flow are described. The long term goal of this work is to investigate flow separation as well as separation control in ducts and ramp-like geometries.

A probabilistic assessment of large scale wind power development for long-term energy resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Scott Warren

A steady decline in the cost of wind turbines and increased experience in their successful operation have brought this technology to the forefront of viable alternatives for large-scale power generation. Methodologies for understanding the costs and benefits of large-scale wind power development, however, are currently limited. In this thesis, a new and widely applicable technique for estimating the social benefit of large-scale wind power production is presented. The social benefit is based upon wind power's energy and capacity services and the avoidance of environmental damages. The approach uses probabilistic modeling techniques to account for the stochastic interaction between wind power availability, electricity demand, and conventional generator dispatch. A method for including the spatial smoothing effect of geographically dispersed wind farms is also introduced. The model has been used to analyze potential offshore wind power development to the south of Long Island, NY. If natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and integrated gasifier combined cycle (IGCC) are the alternative generation sources, wind power exhibits a negative social benefit due to its high capacity cost and the relatively low emissions of these advanced fossil-fuel technologies. Environmental benefits increase significantly if charges for CO2 emissions are included. Results also reveal a diminishing social benefit as wind power penetration increases. The dependence of wind power benefits on natural gas and coal prices is also discussed. In power systems with a high penetration of wind generated electricity, the intermittent availability of wind power may influence hourly spot prices. A price responsive electricity demand model is introduced that shows a small increase in wind power value when consumers react to hourly spot prices. The effectiveness of this mechanism depends heavily on estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities of aggregate electricity demand. This work makes a valuable contribution by synthesizing information from research in power market economics, power system reliability, and environmental impact assessment, to develop a comprehensive methodology for analyzing wind power in the context of long-term energy planning.

High natural erosion rates are the backdrop for enhanced anthropogenic soil erosion in the Middle Hills of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, A. J.; Arnold, M.; Aumaître, G.; Bourlès, D. L.; Keddadouche, K.; Bickle, M.; Ojha, T.

2014-08-01

Although agriculturally accelerated soil erosion is implicated in the unsustainable environmental degradation of mountain environments, such as in the Himalaya, the effects of land use can be difficult to quantify in many mountain settings because of the high and variable natural background rates of erosion. In this study, we present new long-term denudation rates, derived from cosmogenic 10Be analysis of quartz in river sediment from the Likhu Khola, a small agricultural river basin in the Middle Hills of central Nepal. Calculated long-term denudation rates, which reflect background natural erosion processes over 1000+ years prior to agricultural intensification, are similar to present-day sediment yields and to soil loss rates from terraces that are well-maintained. Similarity in short- and long-term catchment-wide erosion rates for the Likhu is consistent with data from elsewhere in the Nepal Middle Hills, but contrasts with the very large increases in short-term erosion rates seen in agricultural catchments in other steep mountain settings. Our results suggest that the large sediment fluxes exported from the Likhu and other Middle Hills rivers in the Himalaya are derived in large part from natural processes, rather than from soil erosion as a result of agricultural activity. Because of the high natural background rates, simple comparison of short- and long-term rates may not reveal unsustainable soil degradation, particularly if much of the catchment-scale erosion flux derives from mass wasting. Correcting for the mass wasting contribution in the Likhu implies minimum catchment-averaged soil production rates of ~0.25-0.35 mm yr-1. The deficit between these production rates and soil losses suggests that terraced agriculture in the Likhu may not be associated with a large systematic soil deficit, at least when terraces are well maintained, but that poorly managed terraces, forest and scrubland may lead to rapid depletion of soil resources.

A facile single-step synthesis of polyvinylpyrrolidone-silver nanocomposites using a conventional spray dryer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byung-Ho; Hyuck Kim, Yoon; Lee, Young Jin; Lee, Mi Jai; Kim, Jin-Ho; Hwang, Jonghee; Jeon, Dae-Woo

2018-01-01

We have developed a facile single-step synthesis of silver nanocomposite using a conventional spray dryer. We investigated the synthetic conditions by controlling the concentrations of the chemical reactants. Further, we confirmed the effect of the molecular weight of polyvinylpyrrolidones, and revealed that the molecular weight significantly affected the properties of the resultant silver nanocomposites. The long-term stability of the silver nanocomposites was tested, and little change was observed, even after storage for three months. Most of all, the simple commercial implementation, in combination with large-scale synthesis, possesses a variety of advantages, compared to conventional complicated and costly dry-process synthesis methods. Thus, our method presents opportunities for further investigation, for both lab-scale studies and large-scale industrial applications.

The Adult Occupational Success of Dyslexic Boys: A Large Scale, Long-Term Follow Up.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottfredson, Linda S.; And Others

Several hundred men who were dyslexic as high school students, and for whom considerable early test data were available, were surveyed as adults. Subjects included alumni from 1940 through 1977 of the Gow School, a private secondary school for dyslexic boys. Their occupations were compared to those of a control group, the fathers of both groups,…

Response of mountain Picea abies forests to stand-replacing bark beetle outbreaks: Neighbourhood effects lead to self-replacement

Treesearch

Thorsten Zeppenfeld; Miroslav Svoboda; R. Justin DeRose; Marco Heurich; Jorg Muller; Pavla Cizkova; Martin Stary; Radek Bace; Daniel C. Donato

2015-01-01

Large, severe disturbances drive many forest ecosystems over the long term, but pose management uncertainties when human experience with them is limited. Recent continent-scale outbreaks of bark beetles across the temperate Northern Hemisphere have raised major concerns as to whether coniferous forests will regenerate back towards pre-outbreak condition and...

Ecological effects of variable retention harvests in the northwestern United States: the DEMO study.

Treesearch

Keith B. Aubry; Charles B. Halpern; Douglas A. Maguire

2004-01-01

The retention of trees in harvest units is an integral part of forest management practices on federal lands in the northwestern United States (U.S.), yet the ecological benefits that result from various levels or patterns of retained trees remain speculative. Large scale and long term silviculture experiments are needed to evaluate the effects of alternative forest...

Tardive Dyskinesia and Intellectual Disability: An Examination of Demographics and Topography in Adults with Dual Diagnosis and Atypical Antipsychotic Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fodstad, Jill C.; Bamburg, Jay W.; Matson, Johnny L.; Mahan, Sara; Hess, Julie A.; Neal, Daniene; Holloway, Jodie

2010-01-01

Atypical antipsychotic medications are commonly used in large-scale residential care facilities for adults with developmental disabilities. While the benefits of this class of psychotropics are noted, debate exists whether the side effect profile of these medications outweigh their therapeutic benefit, especially in those who use them long-term.…

San Diego Declaration on Climate Change and Fire Management: Ramifications for fuels management

Treesearch

Brian P. Oswald

2007-01-01

Climate plays a central role in shaping fire regimes over long time scales and in generating short-term weather that drives fire events. Recent research suggests that the increasing numbers of large and severe wildfires, lengthened wildfire seasons, and increased area burned are, in part, related to shifts in climate. The historical fire regimes in many ecosystems have...

Among-provence variability of gas exchange and growth in response to long-term elevated CO2 exposure

Treesearch

James L.J. Houpis; Paul D. Anderson; James C. Pushnik; David J. Anschel

1999-01-01

Genetic variability can have profound effects on the interpretation of results from elevated CO2 studies, and future forest management decisions. Information on which varieties are best suited to future atmospheric conditions is needed to develop future forest management practices. A large-scale screening study of the effects of elevated CO

The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

Expanding the vision of the Experimental Forest and Range network to urban areas

Treesearch

J. Morgan Grove

2014-01-01

After 100 years, the USDA Forest Service has emerging opportunities to expand the Experimental Forest and Range (EFR) network to urban areas. The purpose of this expansion would be to broaden the types of ecosystems studied, interdisciplinary approaches used, and relevance to society of the EFR network through long-term and large-scale social-ecological projects in...

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.

1973-01-01

Studies are reported of the long term responses of the model atmosphere to anomalies in snow cover and sea surface temperature. An abstract of a previously issued report on the computed response to surface anomalies in a global atmospheric model is presented, and the experiments on the effects of transient sea surface temperature on the Mintz-Arakawa atmospheric model are reported.

A Prospectus on Restoring Late Successional Forest Structure to Eastside Pine Ecosystems Through Large-Scale, Interdisciplinary Research

Treesearch

Steve Zack; William F. Laudenslayer; Luke George; Carl Skinner; William Oliver

1999-01-01

At two different locations in northeast California, an interdisciplinary team of scientists is initiating long-term studies to quantify the effects of forest manipulations intended to accelerate andlor enhance late-successional structure of eastside pine forest ecosystems. One study, at Blacks Mountain Experimental Forest, uses a split-plot, factorial, randomized block...

The Effects of Elaboration and Rehearsal on Long-Term Retention of Shape Names by Kindergarteners. Technical Report #31.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallimore, Ronald; And Others

This paper examines the use of elaboration and overt rehearsal as strategies for increasing kindergarten children's retention and recall of shape names. The study is part of a large scale investigation concerned with improving the school achievement of Hawaiian and part-Hawaiian children. Twenty-four kindergarten children enrolled in a…

Changes in vegetation structure and diversity after grass-to-forest succession in a Southern Appalachian watershed

Treesearch

Katherine J. Elliott; Lindsay R. Boring; Wayne T. Swank

1998-01-01

To document how species richness and diversity (H!) recover from severe large-scale disturbance, we report temporal patterns of species composition and diversity following grass-to-forest succession from a long-term experiment in the Coweeta Basin, western North Carolina. The original experiment -- clear-cutting, 5 yr of grass cover followed by a herbicide treatment,...

Differential effects of canopy trimming and litter deposition on litterfall and nutrient dynamics in a wet subtropical forest

Treesearch

W.L. Silver; S.J. Hall; Grizelle Gonzalez

2014-01-01

Humid tropical forests have the highest rates of litterfall production globally, which fuels rapid nutrient recycling and high net ecosystem production. Severe storm events significantly alter patterns in litterfall mass and nutrient dynamics through a combination of canopy disturbance and litter deposition. In this study, we used a large-scale long-term manipulation...

A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

2013-01-01

Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

2014-12-01

Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large-scale models.

Potential utilization of the NASA/George C. Marshall Space Flight Center in earthquake engineering research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholl, R. E. (Editor)

1979-01-01

Earthquake engineering research capabilities of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) facilities at George C. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Alabama, were evaluated. The results indicate that the NASA/MSFC facilities and supporting capabilities offer unique opportunities for conducting earthquake engineering research. Specific features that are particularly attractive for large scale static and dynamic testing of natural and man-made structures include the following: large physical dimensions of buildings and test bays; high loading capacity; wide range and large number of test equipment and instrumentation devices; multichannel data acquisition and processing systems; technical expertise for conducting large-scale static and dynamic testing; sophisticated techniques for systems dynamics analysis, simulation, and control; and capability for managing large-size and technologically complex programs. Potential uses of the facilities for near and long term test programs to supplement current earthquake research activities are suggested.

Organic chemicals jeopardize the health of freshwater ecosystems on the continental scale

PubMed Central

Malaj, Egina; von der Ohe, Peter C.; Grote, Matthias; Kühne, Ralph; Mondy, Cédric P.; Usseglio-Polatera, Philippe; Brack, Werner; Schäfer, Ralf B.

2014-01-01

Organic chemicals can contribute to local and regional losses of freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, their overall relevance regarding larger spatial scales remains unknown. Here, we present, to our knowledge, the first risk assessment of organic chemicals on the continental scale comprising 4,000 European monitoring sites. Organic chemicals were likely to exert acute lethal and chronic long-term effects on sensitive fish, invertebrate, or algae species in 14% and 42% of the sites, respectively. Of the 223 chemicals monitored, pesticides, tributyltin, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and brominated flame retardants were the major contributors to the chemical risk. Their presence was related to agricultural and urban areas in the upstream catchment. The risk of potential acute lethal and chronic long-term effects increased with the number of ecotoxicologically relevant chemicals analyzed at each site. As most monitoring programs considered in this study only included a subset of these chemicals, our assessment likely underestimates the actual risk. Increasing chemical risk was associated with deterioration in the quality status of fish and invertebrate communities. Our results clearly indicate that chemical pollution is a large-scale environmental problem and requires far-reaching, holistic mitigation measures to preserve and restore ecosystem health. PMID:24979762

"We don't do it for the money" … The scale and reasons of poverty-pay among frontline long-term care workers in England.

PubMed

Hussein, Shereen

2017-11-01

Demographic trends escalate the demands for formal long-term care (LTC) in the majority of the developed world. The LTC workforce is characterised by its very low wages, the actual scale of which is less well known. This article investigates the scale of poverty-pay in the feminised LTC sector and attempts to understand the perceived reasons behind persisting low wages in the sector. The analysis makes use of large national workforce pay data and a longitudinal survey of care workers, as well as interviews with key stakeholders in the sector. The analysis suggests that there are at least between 10 and 13% of care workers who are effectively being paid under the National Minimum Wage in England. Thematic qualitative analysis of 300 interviews with employers, care workers and service users highlight three key explanatory factors of low pay: the intrinsic nature of LTC work, the value of caring for older people, and marketisation and outsourcing of services. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Galaxy power-spectrum responses and redshift-space super-sample effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yin; Schmittfull, Marcel; Seljak, Uroš

2018-02-01

As a major source of cosmological information, galaxy clustering is susceptible to long-wavelength density and tidal fluctuations. These long modes modulate the growth and expansion rate of local structures, shifting them in both amplitude and scale. These effects are often named the growth and dilation effects, respectively. In particular the dilation shifts the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) peak and breaks the assumption of the Alcock-Paczynski (AP) test. This cannot be removed with reconstruction techniques because the effect originates from long modes outside the survey. In redshift space, the long modes generate a large-scale radial peculiar velocity that affects the redshift-space distortion (RSD) signal. We compute the redshift-space response functions of the galaxy power spectrum to long density and tidal modes at leading order in perturbation theory, including both the growth and dilation terms. We validate these response functions against measurements from simulated galaxy mock catalogs. As one application, long density and tidal modes beyond the scale of a survey correlate various observables leading to an excess error known as the super-sample covariance, and thus weaken their constraining power. We quantify the super-sample effect on BAO, AP, and RSD measurements, and study its impact on current and future surveys.

Comparison of Short- and Long-term Hearing Outcomes of Successful Inlay Cartilage Tympanoplasty Between Small and Large Eardrum Perforations.

PubMed

Wu, Pei-Wen; Wang, Wen-Hung; Huang, Chi-Che; Lee, Ta-Jen; Huang, Chien-Chia

2015-12-01

To compare the short- and long-term hearing outcomes after successful inlay cartilage tympanoplasty between patients with small (≤25%) and large (≥50%) eardrums perforations. This is a retrospective case series study conducted in a tertiary referral center. Twenty-five patients who underwent 27 procedures were enrolled. Their mean age was 60.26 years (range, 42 to 76 years). The mean follow-up time was 18.86 months (range, 12.30 to 35.83 months). The preoperative, initial postoperative, and long-term hearing results in patients with total repair of the eardrum were analyzed. In the small size group, the average (±standard deviation) air-bone gap (ABG) closure was 1.08±7.53 dB in the short-term and 2.33±11.56 dB in the long-term hearing examinations. There was no difference between short- and long-term ABG closure (P=0.689). In the large size group, the average ABG closure was 9.77±9.40 dB in the short-term and 16.25±6.01 dB in the long-term hearing examinations. There was a significant difference between short- and long-term ABG closure (P=0.029). Patients with large perforations have continuous hearing improvement and ABG closure for more than one year. In contrast, the short- and long-term postoperative ABGs are almost the same in patients with small perforations. More long-term postoperative follow-up of hearing results is necessary for large perforations.

Long-term magnetic field monitoring of the Sun-like star ξ Bootis A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgenthaler, A.; Petit, P.; Saar, S.; Solanki, S. K.; Morin, J.; Marsden, S. C.; Aurière, M.; Dintrans, B.; Fares, R.; Gastine, T.; Lanoux, J.; Lignières, F.; Paletou, F.; Ramírez Vélez, J. C.; Théado, S.; Van Grootel, V.

2012-04-01

Aims: We aim to investigate the long-term temporal evolution of the magnetic field of the solar-type star ξ Bootis A, both from direct magnetic field measurements and from the simultaneous estimate of indirect activity indicators. Methods: We obtained seven epochs of high-resolution, circularly-polarized spectra from the NARVAL spectropolarimeter between 2007 and 2011, for a total of 76 spectra. Using approximately 6100 photospheric spectral lines covering the visible domain, we employed a cross-correlation procedure to compute a mean polarized line profile from each spectrum. The large-scale photospheric magnetic field of the star was then modelled by means of Zeeman-Doppler Imaging, allowing us to follow the year-to-year evolution of the reconstructed magnetic topology. Simultaneously, we monitored the width of several magnetically sensitive spectral lines, the radial velocity, the line asymmetry of intensity line profiles, and the chromospheric emission in the cores of the Ca II H and Hα lines. Results: During the highest observed activity states, in 2007 and 2011, the large-scale field of ξ Bootis A is almost completely axisymmetric and is dominated by its toroidal component. The toroidal component persists with a constant polarity, containing a significant fraction of the magnetic energy of the large-scale surface field through all observing epochs. The magnetic topologies reconstructed for these activity maxima are very similar, suggesting a form of short cyclicity in the large-scale field distribution. The mean unsigned large-scale magnetic flux derived from the magnetic maps varies by a factor of about 2 between the lowest and highest observed magnetic states. The chromospheric flux is less affected and varies by a factor of 1.2. Correlated temporal evolution, due to both rotational modulation and seasonal variability, is observed between the Ca II emission, the Hα emission and the width of magnetically sensitive lines. The rotational dependence of polarimetric magnetic measurements displays a weak correlation with other activity proxies, presumably due to the different spatial scales and centre-to-limb darkening associated with polarimetric signatures, as compared to non-polarized activity indicators. Better agreement is observed on the longer term. When measurable, the differential rotation reveals a strong latitudinal shear in excess of 0.2 rad d-1. Based on observations obtained at the Bernard Lyot Telescope (TBL, Pic du Midi, France) of the Midi-Pyrénées Observatory, which is operated by the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France.Tables 3-6 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

2017-12-01

Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

Cryogenic Selective Surface - How Cold Can We Go?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Youngquist, Robert; Nurge, Mark

2015-01-01

Selective surfaces have wavelength dependent emissivitya bsorption. These surfaces can be designed to reflect solar radiation, while maximizing infrared emittance, yielding a cooling effect even in sunlight. On earth cooling to -50 C below ambient has been achieved, but in space, outside of the atmosphere, theory using ideal materials has predicted a maximum cooling to 40 K! If this result holds up for real world materials and conditions, then superconducting systems and cryogenic storage can be achieved in space without active cooling. Such a result would enable long term cryogenic storage in deep space and the use of large scale superconducting systems for such applications as galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) shielding and large scale energy storage.

Planning alternative organizational frameworks for a large scale educational telecommunications system served by fixed/broadcast satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walkmeyer, J.

1973-01-01

This memorandum explores a host of considerations meriting attention from those who are concerned with designing organizational structures for development and control of a large scale educational telecommunications system using satellites. Part of a broader investigation at Washington University into the potential uses of fixed/broadcast satellites in U.S. education, this study lays ground work for a later effort to spell out a small number of hypothetical organizational blueprints for such a system and for assessment of potential short and long term impacts. The memorandum consists of two main parts. Part A deals with subjects of system-wide concern, while Part B deals with matters related to specific system components.

Turbulent and Laminar Flow in Karst Conduits Under Unsteady Flow Conditions: Interpretation of Pumping Tests by Discrete Conduit-Continuum Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giese, M.; Reimann, T.; Bailly-Comte, V.; Maréchal, J.-C.; Sauter, M.; Geyer, T.

2018-03-01

Due to the duality in terms of (1) the groundwater flow field and (2) the discharge conditions, flow patterns of karst aquifer systems are complex. Estimated aquifer parameters may differ by several orders of magnitude from local (borehole) to regional (catchment) scale because of the large contrast in hydraulic parameters between matrix and conduit, their heterogeneity and anisotropy. One approach to deal with the scale effect problem in the estimation of hydraulic parameters of karst aquifers is the application of large-scale experiments such as long-term high-abstraction conduit pumping tests, stimulating measurable groundwater drawdown in both, the karst conduit system as well as the fractured matrix. The numerical discrete conduit-continuum modeling approach MODFLOW-2005 Conduit Flow Process Mode 1 (CFPM1) is employed to simulate laminar and nonlaminar conduit flow, induced by large-scale experiments, in combination with Darcian matrix flow. Effects of large-scale experiments were simulated for idealized settings. Subsequently, diagnostic plots and analyses of different fluxes are applied to interpret differences in the simulated conduit drawdown and general flow patterns. The main focus is set on the question to which extent different conduit flow regimes will affect the drawdown in conduit and matrix depending on the hydraulic properties of the conduit system, i.e., conduit diameter and relative roughness. In this context, CFPM1 is applied to investigate the importance of considering turbulent conditions for the simulation of karst conduit flow. This work quantifies the relative error that results from assuming laminar conduit flow for the interpretation of a synthetic large-scale pumping test in karst.

Uncertainties of Large-Scale Forcing Caused by Surface Turbulence Flux Measurements and the Impacts on Cloud Simulations at the ARM SGP Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, S.; Xie, S.; Tang, Q.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Two types of instruments, the eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) and the energy balance Bowen ratio system (EBBR), are used at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to measure surface latent and sensible fluxes. ECOR and EBBR typically sample different land surface types, and the domain-mean surface fluxes derived from ECOR and EBBR are not always consistent. The uncertainties of the surface fluxes will have impacts on the derived large-scale forcing data and further affect the simulations of single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM) and large-eddy simulation models (LES), especially for the shallow-cumulus clouds which are mainly driven by surface forcing. This study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the large-scale forcing caused by surface turbulence flux measurements and investigate the impacts on cloud simulations using long-term observations from the ARM SGP site.

High natural erosion rates are the backdrop for present-day soil erosion in the agricultural Middle Hills of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, A. J.; Arnold, M.; AumaItre, G.; Bourles, D. L.; Keddadouche, K.; Bickle, M.; Ojha, T.

2015-07-01

Although agriculturally accelerated soil erosion is implicated in the unsustainable environmental degradation of mountain environments, such as in the Himalaya, the effects of land use can be challenging to quantify in many mountain settings because of the high and variable natural background rates of erosion. In this study, we present new long-term denudation rates, derived from cosmogenic 10Be analysis of quartz in river sediment from the Likhu Khola, a small agricultural river basin in the Middle Hills of central Nepal. Calculated long-term denudation rates, which reflect background natural erosion processes over 1000+ years prior to agricultural intensification, are similar to present-day sediment yields and to soil loss rates from terraces that are well maintained. Similarity in short- and long-term catchment-wide erosion rates for the Likhu is consistent with data from elsewhere in the Nepal Middle Hills but contrasts with the very large increases in short-term erosion rates seen in agricultural catchments in other steep mountain settings. Our results suggest that the large sediment fluxes exported from the Likhu and other Middle Hills rivers in the Himalaya are derived in large part from natural processes, rather than from soil erosion as a result of agricultural activity. Catchment-scale erosional fluxes may be similar over short and long timescales if both are dominated by mass wasting sources such as gullies, landslides, and debris flows (e.g., as is evident in the landslide-dominated Khudi Khola of the Nepal High Himalaya, based on compiled data). As a consequence, simple comparison of catchment-scale fluxes will not necessarily pinpoint land use effects on soils where these are only a small part of the total erosion budget, unless rates of mass wasting are also considered. Estimates of the mass wasting contribution to erosion in the Likhu imply catchment-averaged soil production rates on the order of ~ 0.25-0.35 mm yr-1, though rates of mass wasting are poorly constrained. The deficit between our best estimates for soil production rates and measurements of soil loss rates supports conclusions from previous studies that terraced agriculture in the Likhu may not be associated with a large systematic soil deficit, at least when terraces are well maintained, but that poorly managed terraces, forest, and scrubland may lead to rapid depletion of soil resources.

Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets.

PubMed

Wei, Nan; Zhou, Liming; Dai, Yongjiu; Xia, Geng; Hua, Wenjian

2017-05-17

Desert amplification identified in recent studies has large uncertainties due to data paucity over remote deserts. Here we present observational evidence using multiple satellite-derived datasets that desert amplification is a real large-scale pattern of warming mode in near surface and low-tropospheric temperatures. Trend analyses of three long-term temperature products consistently confirm that near-surface warming is generally strongest over the driest climate regions and this spatial pattern of warming maximizes near the surface, gradually decays with height, and disappears in the upper troposphere. Short-term anomaly analyses show a strong spatial and temporal coupling of changes in temperatures, water vapor and downward longwave radiation (DLR), indicating that the large increase in DLR drives primarily near surface warming and is tightly associated with increasing water vapor over deserts. Atmospheric soundings of temperature and water vapor anomalies support the results of the long-term temperature trend analysis and suggest that desert amplification is due to comparable warming and moistening effects of the troposphere. Likely, desert amplification results from the strongest water vapor feedbacks near the surface over the driest deserts, where the air is very sensitive to changes in water vapor and thus efficient in enhancing the longwave greenhouse effect in a warming climate.

Random fractional ultrapulsed CO2 resurfacing of photodamaged facial skin: long-term evaluation.

PubMed

Tretti Clementoni, Matteo; Galimberti, Michela; Tourlaki, Athanasia; Catenacci, Maximilian; Lavagno, Rosalia; Bencini, Pier Luca

2013-02-01

Although numerous papers have recently been published on ablative fractional resurfacing, there is a lack of information in literature on very long-term results. The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the efficacy, adverse side effects, and long-term results of a random fractional ultrapulsed CO2 laser on a large population with photodamaged facial skin. Three hundred twelve patients with facial photodamaged skin were enrolled and underwent a single full-face treatment. Six aspects of photodamaged skin were recorded using a 5 point scale at 3, 6, and 24 months after the treatment. The results were compared with a non-parametric statistical test, the Wilcoxon's exact test. Three hundred one patients completed the study. All analyzed features showed a significant statistical improvement 3 months after the procedure. Three months later all features, except for pigmentations, once again showed a significant statistical improvement. Results after 24 months were similar to those assessed 18 months before. No long-term or other serious complications were observed. From the significant number of patients analyzed, long-term results demonstrate not only how fractional ultrapulsed CO2 resurfacing can achieve good results on photodamaged facial skin but also how these results can be considered stable 2 years after the procedure.

Long-term evolution of the force-free twisted magnetosphere of a magnetar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgün, T.; Cerdá-Durán, P.; Miralles, J. A.; Pons, J. A.

2017-12-01

We study the long-term quasi-steady evolution of the force-free magnetosphere of a magnetar coupled to its internal magnetic field. We find that magnetospheric currents can be maintained on long time-scales of the order of thousands of years. Meanwhile, the energy, helicity and twist stored in the magnetosphere all gradually increase over the course of this evolution, until a critical point is reached, beyond which a force-free magnetosphere cannot be constructed. At this point, some large-scale magnetospheric rearrangement, possibly resulting in an outburst or a flare, must occur, releasing a large fraction of the stored energy, helicity and twist. After that, the quasi-steady evolution should continue in a similar manner from the new initial conditions. The time-scale for reaching this critical point depends on the overall magnetic field strength and on the relative fraction of the toroidal field. The energy stored in the force-free magnetosphere is found to be up to ∼30 per cent larger than the corresponding vacuum energy. This implies that for a 1014 G field at the pole, the energy budget available for fast magnetospheric events is of the order of a few 1044 erg. The spin-down rate is estimated to increase by up to ∼60 per cent, since the dipole content in the magnetosphere is enhanced by the currents present there. A rough estimate of the braking index n reveals that it is systematically n < 3 for the most part of the evolution, consistent with actual measurements for pulsars and early estimates for several magnetars.

Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

2017-04-01

At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the large scale pattern, can provide related compact and meaningful information. In addition, the availability for the area of interest of a 20-year long dataset of directional spectra (in frequency and direction) offers an independent, but theoretically corresponding and significantly long dataset, allowing to penetrate the wave problem through different perspectives. In particular, we investigate the contribution of the individual wave systems that modulate the variability of waves in the Adriatic Sea. A characterization of wave conditions based on wave spectra in fact brings out a more detailed description of the different wave regimes, their associated meteorological conditions and their variation in time and geographical space.

Conservation lessons from large-mammal manipulations in East African savannas: the KLEE, UHURU, and GLADE experiments.

PubMed

Goheen, Jacob R; Augustine, David J; Veblen, Kari E; Kimuyu, Duncan M; Palmer, Todd M; Porensky, Lauren M; Pringle, Robert M; Ratnam, Jayashree; Riginos, Corinna; Sankaran, Mahesh; Ford, Adam T; Hassan, Abdikadir A; Jakopak, Rhiannon; Kartzinel, Tyler R; Kurukura, Samson; Louthan, Allison M; Odadi, Wilfred O; Otieno, Tobias O; Wambua, Alois M; Young, Hillary S; Young, Truman P

2018-05-11

African savannas support an iconic fauna, but they are undergoing large-scale population declines and extinctions of large (>5 kg) mammals. Long-term, controlled, replicated experiments that explore the consequences of this defaunation (and its replacement with livestock) are rare. The Mpala Research Centre in Laikipia County, Kenya, hosts three such experiments, spanning two adjacent ecosystems and environmental gradients within them: the Kenya Long-Term Exclosure Experiment (KLEE; since 1995), the Glade Legacies and Defaunation Experiment (GLADE; since 1999), and the Ungulate Herbivory Under Rainfall Uncertainty experiment (UHURU; since 2008). Common themes unifying these experiments are (1) evidence of profound effects of large mammalian herbivores on herbaceous and woody plant communities; (2) competition and compensation across herbivore guilds, including rodents; and (3) trophic cascades and other indirect effects. We synthesize findings from the past two decades to highlight generalities and idiosyncrasies among these experiments, and highlight six lessons that we believe are pertinent for conservation. The removal of large mammalian herbivores has dramatic effects on the ecology of these ecosystems; their ability to rebound from these changes (after possible refaunation) remains unexplored. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Prospective evaluation of behavioral scales in the behavioral variant of frontotemporal dementia.

PubMed

Boutoleau-Bretonnière, Claire; Lebouvier, Thibaud; Volteau, Christelle; Jaulin, Philippe; Lacomblez, Lucette; Damier, Philippe; Thomas-Anterion, Catherine; Vercelletto, Martine

2012-01-01

The Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) and the Frontal Behavioral Inventory (FBI) are widely used in patients with the behavioral variant of frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD). Yet, few data are available on the long-term relevance of these scales. Based on a bvFTD population that participated in the Memantine Clinical Trial (NCT00200538), we studied the evolution and correlation between scores obtained on behavioral scales (NPI and FBI), cognitive scales [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Mattis Dementia Rating Scale (MDRS)] and a burden scale [Zarit Burden Inventory (ZBI)]. The assessments were performed at 1 year in 41 patients and at 2 years in 23 patients who agreed to participate in this open-label study. The 2-year scores obtained on the FBI were significantly higher than the scores at inclusion while those obtained on the NPI did not change. There were significant correlations between the FBI, and the MDRS and MMSE, especially regarding the negative items. The ZBI correlated with behavioral scales at all stages for positive items. This study based on a large population shows that the FBI is a better tool than the NPI for the long-term assessment of bvFTD patients. Moreover, the FBI allows a distinction to be made between behavioral disturbances that involve cognitive functions from those which have an important impact on caregiver burden. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

PubMed

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

PNAS Plus: Mapping patterns of long-term settlement in Northern Mesopotamia at a large scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menze, Bjoern H.; Ur, Jason A.

2012-04-01

The landscapes of the Near East show both the first settlements and the longest trajectories of settlement systems. Mounding is a characteristic property of these settlement sites, resulting from millennia of continuing settlement activity at distinguished places. So far, however, this defining feature of ancient settlements has not received much attention, or even been the subject of systematic evaluation. We propose a remote sensing approach for comprehensively mapping the pattern of human settlement at large scale and establish the largest archaeological record for a landscape in Mesopotamia, mapping about 14,000 settlement sites-spanning eight millennia-at 15-m resolution in a 23,000-km2 area in northeastern Syria. To map both low- and high-mounded places-the latter of which are often referred to as "tells"-we develop a strategy for detecting anthrosols in time series of multispectral satellite images and measure the volume of settlement sites in a digital elevation model. Using this volume as a proxy to continued occupation, we find a dependency of the long-term attractiveness of a site on local water availability, but also a strong relation to the relevance within a basin-wide exchange network that we can infer from our record and third millennium B.C. intersite routes visible on the ground until recent times. We believe it is possible to establish a nearly comprehensive map of human settlements in the fluvial plains of northern Mesopotamia and beyond, and site volume may be a key quantity to uncover long-term trends in human settlement activity from such a record.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

Large-scale modular biofiltration system for effective odor removal in a composting facility.

PubMed

Lin, Yueh-Hsien; Chen, Yu-Pei; Ho, Kuo-Ling; Lee, Tsung-Yih; Tseng, Ching-Ping

2013-01-01

Several different foul odors such as nitrogen-containing groups, sulfur-containing groups, and short-chain fatty-acids commonly emitted from composting facilities. In this study, an experimental laboratory-scale bioreactor was scaled up to build a large-scale modular biofiltration system that can process 34 m(3)min(-1)waste gases. This modular reactor system was proven effective in eliminating odors, with a 97% removal efficiency for 96 ppm ammonia, a 98% removal efficiency for 220 ppm amines, and a 100% removal efficiency of other odorous substances. The results of operational parameters indicate that this modular biofiltration system offers long-term operational stability. Specifically, a low pressure drop (<45 mmH2O m(-1)) was observed, indicating that the packing carrier in bioreactor units does not require frequent replacement. Thus, this modular biofiltration system can be used in field applications to eliminate various odors with compact working volume.

Drivers of leaf carbon exchange capacity across biomes at the continental scale.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2018-04-29

Realistic representations of plant carbon exchange processes are necessary to reliably simulate biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. These processes are known to vary over time and space, though the drivers of the underlying rates are still widely debated in the literature. Here, we measured leaf carbon exchange in >500 individuals of 98 species from the Neotropics to high boreal biomes to determine the drivers of photosynthetic and dark respiration capacity. Covariate abiotic (long- and short-term climate) and biotic (plant type, plant size, ontogeny, water status) data were used to explore significant drivers of temperature-standardized leaf carbon exchange rates. Using model selection, we found the previous week's temperature and soil moisture at the time of measurement to be a better predictor of photosynthetic capacity than long-term climate, with the combination of high recent temperatures and low soil moisture tending to decrease photosynthetic capacity. Non-trees (annual and perennials) tended to have greater photosynthetic capacity than trees, and, within trees, adults tended to have greater photosynthetic capacity than juveniles, possibly as a result of differences in light availability. Dark respiration capacity was less responsive to the assessed drivers than photosynthetic capacity, with rates best predicted by multi-year average site temperature alone. Our results suggest that, across large spatial scales, photosynthetic capacity quickly adjusts to changing environmental conditions, namely light, temperature, and soil moisture. Respiratory capacity is more conservative and most responsive to longer-term conditions. Our results provide a framework for incorporating these processes into large-scale models and a data set to benchmark such models. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Pro-sustainability choices and child deaths averted: from project experience to investment strategy.

PubMed

Sarriot, Eric G; Swedberg, Eric A; Ricca, James G

2011-05-01

The pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals and advancing the 'global health agenda' demand the achievement of health impact at scale through efficient investments. We have previously offered that sustainability-a necessary condition for successful expansion of programmes-can be addressed in practical terms. Based on benchmarks from actual child survival projects, we assess the expected impact of translating pro-sustainability choices into investment strategies. We review the experience of Save the Children US in Guinea in terms of investment, approach to sustainability and impact. It offers three benchmarks for impact: Entry project (21 lives saved of children under age five per US$100 000), Expansion project (37 LS/US$100k), and Continuation project (100 LS/US$100k). Extrapolating this experience, we model the impact of a traditional investment scenario against a pro-sustainability scenario and compare the deaths averted per dollar spent over five project cycles. The impact per dollar spent on a pro-sustainability strategy is 3.4 times that of a traditional one over the long run (range from 2.2 to 5.7 times in a sensitivity analysis). This large efficiency differential between two investment approaches offers a testable hypothesis for large-scale/long-term studies. The 'bang for the buck' of health programmes could be greatly increased by following a pro-sustainability investment strategy.

Looking for a relevant potential evapotranspiration model at the watershed scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudin, L.; Hervieu, F.; Michel, C.; Perrin, C.; Anctil, F.; Andréassian, V.

2003-04-01

In this paper, we try to identify the most relevant approach to calculate Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) for use in a daily watershed model, to try to bring an answer to the following question: "how can we use commonly available atmospheric parameters to represent the evaporative demand at the catchment scale?". Hydrologists generally see the Penman model as the ideal model regarding to its good adequacy with lysimeter measurements and its physically-based formulation. However, in real-world engineering situations, where meteorological stations are scarce, hydrologists are often constrained to use other PET formulae with less data requirements or/and long-term average of PET values (the rationale being that PET is an inherently conservative variable). We chose to test 28 commonly used PET models coupled with 4 different daily watershed models. For each test, we compare both PET input options: actual data and long-term average data. The comparison is made in terms of streamflow simulation efficiency, over a large sample of 308 watersheds. The watersheds are located in France, Australia and the United States of America and represent varied climates. Strikingly, we find no systematic improvements of the watershed model efficiencies when using actual PET series instead of long-term averages. This suggests either that watershed models may not conveniently use the climatic information contained in PET values or that formulae are only awkward indicators of the real PET which watershed models need.

Long-term GPS tracking of ocean sunfish Mola mola offers a new direction in fish monitoring.

PubMed

Sims, David W; Queiroz, Nuno; Humphries, Nicolas E; Lima, Fernando P; Hays, Graeme C

2009-10-09

Satellite tracking of large pelagic fish provides insights on free-ranging behaviour, distributions and population structuring. Up to now, such fish have been tracked remotely using two principal methods: direct positioning of transmitters by Argos polar-orbiting satellites, and satellite relay of tag-derived light-level data for post hoc track reconstruction. Error fields associated with positions determined by these methods range from hundreds of metres to hundreds of kilometres. However, low spatial accuracy of tracks masks important details, such as foraging patterns. Here we use a fast-acquisition global positioning system (Fastloc GPS) tag with remote data retrieval to track long-term movements, in near real time and position accuracy of <70 m, of the world's largest bony fish, the ocean sunfish Mola mola. Search-like movements occurred over at least three distinct spatial scales. At fine scales, sunfish spent longer in highly localised areas with faster, straighter excursions between them. These 'stopovers' during long-distance movement appear consistent with finding and exploiting food patches. This demonstrates the feasibility of GPS tagging to provide tracks of unparalleled accuracy for monitoring movements of large pelagic fish, and with nearly four times as many locations obtained by the GPS tag than by a conventional Argos transmitter. The results signal the potential of GPS-tagged pelagic fish that surface regularly to be detectors of resource 'hotspots' in the blue ocean and provides a new capability for understanding large pelagic fish behaviour and habitat use that is relevant to ocean management and species conservation.

Long-Term GPS Tracking of Ocean Sunfish Mola mola Offers a New Direction in Fish Monitoring

PubMed Central

Sims, David W.; Queiroz, Nuno; Humphries, Nicolas E.; Lima, Fernando P.; Hays, Graeme C.

2009-01-01

Satellite tracking of large pelagic fish provides insights on free-ranging behaviour, distributions and population structuring. Up to now, such fish have been tracked remotely using two principal methods: direct positioning of transmitters by Argos polar-orbiting satellites, and satellite relay of tag-derived light-level data for post hoc track reconstruction. Error fields associated with positions determined by these methods range from hundreds of metres to hundreds of kilometres. However, low spatial accuracy of tracks masks important details, such as foraging patterns. Here we use a fast-acquisition global positioning system (Fastloc GPS) tag with remote data retrieval to track long-term movements, in near real time and position accuracy of <70 m, of the world's largest bony fish, the ocean sunfish Mola mola. Search-like movements occurred over at least three distinct spatial scales. At fine scales, sunfish spent longer in highly localised areas with faster, straighter excursions between them. These ‘stopovers’ during long-distance movement appear consistent with finding and exploiting food patches. This demonstrates the feasibility of GPS tagging to provide tracks of unparalleled accuracy for monitoring movements of large pelagic fish, and with nearly four times as many locations obtained by the GPS tag than by a conventional Argos transmitter. The results signal the potential of GPS-tagged pelagic fish that surface regularly to be detectors of resource ‘hotspots’ in the blue ocean and provides a new capability for understanding large pelagic fish behaviour and habitat use that is relevant to ocean management and species conservation. PMID:19816576

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change research. We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharge using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series. From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.

On the resilience of helical magnetic fields to turbulent diffusion and the astrophysical implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackman, Eric G.; Subramanian, Kandaswamy

2013-02-01

The extent to which large-scale magnetic fields are susceptible to turbulent diffusion is important for interpreting the need for in situ large-scale dynamos in astrophysics and for observationally inferring field strengths compared to kinetic energy. By solving coupled evolution equations for magnetic energy and magnetic helicity in a system initialized with isotropic turbulence and an arbitrarily helical large-scale field, we quantify the decay rate of the latter for a bounded or periodic system. The magnetic energy associated with the non-helical large-scale field decays at least as fast as the kinematically estimated turbulent diffusion rate, but the decay rate of the helical part depends on whether the ratio of its magnetic energy to the turbulent kinetic energy exceeds a critical value given by M1, c = (k1/k2)2, where k1 and k2 are the wavenumbers of the large and forcing scales. Turbulently diffusing helical fields to small scales while conserving magnetic helicity requires a rapid increase in total magnetic energy. As such, only when the helical field is subcritical can it so diffuse. When supercritical, it decays slowly, at a rate determined by microphysical dissipation even in the presence of macroscopic turbulence. In effect, turbulent diffusion of such a large-scale helical field produces small-scale helicity whose amplification abates further turbulent diffusion. Two curious implications are that (1) standard arguments supporting the need for in situ large-scale dynamos based on the otherwise rapid turbulent diffusion of large-scale fields require re-thinking since only the large-scale non-helical field is so diffused in a closed system. Boundary terms could however provide potential pathways for rapid change of the large-scale helical field. (2) Since M1, c ≪ 1 for k1 ≪ k2, the presence of long-lived ordered large-scale helical fields as in extragalactic jets do not guarantee that the magnetic field dominates the kinetic energy.

Denudational slope processes and slope response to global climate changes and other disturbances: insights from the Nepal Himalayas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fort, Monique

2016-04-01

Hillslope geomorphology results from a large range of denudational processes mainly controlled by relief, structure, lithology, climate, land-cover and land use. In most areas of the world, the "critical zone" concept is a good integrator of denudation that operates on a long-term scale. However, in large and high mountain areas, short-time scale factors often play a significant role in the denudational pattern, accelerating and/or delaying the transfer of denudation products and fluxes, and creating specific, spatially limited disturbances. We focus on the Nepal Himalayas, where the wide altitudinal range of bio-climatic zones and the intense geodynamic activity create a complex mosaic of landforms, as expressed by the present geomorphology of mountain slopes. On the basis of examples selected in the different Himalayan mountain belts (Siwaliks hills, middle mountains, High Himalaya), we illustrate different types of slopes and disturbances induced by active tectonics, climate extremes, and climate warming trends. Special attention is paid to recent events, such as landslide damming, triggered by either intense rainfalls (Kali Gandaki and Sun Kosi valleys) or the last April-May 2015 Gorkha seismic sequence (southern Khumbu). Lastly, references to older, larger events show that despite the highly dynamic environment, landforms caused by large magnitude disturbances may persist in the landscape in the long term.

Influence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past 2 centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oshima, Kazuhiro; Ogata, Koto; Park, Hotaek; Tachibana, Yoshihiro

2018-05-01

River discharges from Siberia are a large source of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean, whereas the cause of the long-term variation in Siberian discharges is still unclear. The observed river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the west indicated different relationships in each of the epochs during the past 7 decades. The correlations between the two river discharges were negative during the 1980s to mid-1990s, positive during the mid-1950s to 1960s, and became weak after the mid-1990s. More long-term records of tree-ring-reconstructed discharges have also shown differences in the correlations in each of the epochs. It is noteworthy that the correlations obtained from the reconstructions tend to be negative during the past 2 centuries. Such tendency has also been obtained from precipitations in observations, and in simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and fully coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. The AGCM control simulation further demonstrated that an east-west seesaw pattern of summertime large-scale atmospheric circulation frequently emerges over Siberia as an atmospheric internal variability. This results in an opposite anomaly of precipitation over the Lena and Ob and the negative correlation. Consequently, the summertime atmospheric internal variability in the east-west seesaw pattern over Siberia is a key factor influencing the long-term variation in precipitation and river discharge, i.e., the water cycle in this region.

Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their Climatology and Variability Spanning 6.5 Decades from Regional Dynamical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman-Morales, J.; Gershunov, A.

2015-12-01

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region. In spite of their tremendous episodic impacts on the health, economy and mood of the region, climate-scale behavior of SAW is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis product and construct an hourly SAW catalogue spanning 65 years. We describe the long-term SAW climatology at relevant time-space resolutions, i.e, we developed local and regional SAW indices and analyse their variability on hourly, daily, annual, and multi-decadal timescales. Local and regional SAW indices are validated with available anemometer observations. Characteristic behaviors are revealed, e.g. the SAW intensity-duration relationship. At interdecadal time scales, we find that seasonal SAW activity is sensitive to prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system that are also known to affect the hydroclimate of this region. Lastly, we do not find any long-term trend in SAW frequency and intensity as previously reported. Instead, we identify a significant long-term trend in SAW behavior whereby contribution of extreme SAW events to total seasonal SAW activity has been increasing at the expense of moderate events. These findings motivate further investigation on SAW evolution in future climate and its impact on wildfires.

Planning long-term vegetation studies at landscape scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.

1995-01-01

Long-term ecological research is receiving more attention now than ever before. Two recent books, Long-term Studies in Ecology: Approaches and Alternatives, edited by Gene Likens (1989), and Long-term Ecological Research: An International Perspective, edited by Paul Risser (1991), prompt the question, “Why are these books so thin?” Except for data from paleoecological, retrospective studies (see below), there are exceptionally few long-term data sets in terrestrial ecology (Strayer et al. 1986; Tilman 1989; this volume). In a sample of 749 papers published in Ecology, Tilman (1989) found that only 1.7% of the studies lasted at least five field seasons. Only one chapter in each of the review books dealt specifically with expanding both the temporal and the spatial scales of ecological research (Berkowitz et al. 1989; Magnuson et al. 1991). Judging by the growing number of landscape-scale long-term studies, however, such as the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program (Callahan 1991), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP; Palmer et al. 1991), the U.S. Army’s Land Condition-Trend Analysis (LCTA) Program (Diersing et al. 1992), and various agencies’ global change research programs (CEES 1993), there is a growing interest to expand ecological research both temporally and spatially.

Long and short term changes in the forests of the Cumberland Plateau and Mountains using large scale forest inventory data

Treesearch

Christopher M. Oswalt; Andrew J. Hartsell

2012-01-01

The Cumberland Plateau and Mountains (CPM) are a significant component of the eastern deciduous forest with biological and cultural resources strongly connected to and dependent upon the forest resources of the region. As a result, continuous inventory and monitoring is critical. The USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has been collecting...

Assessment of fire effects based on Forest Inventory and Analysis data and a long-term fire mapping data set

Treesearch

John D. Shaw; Sara A. Goeking; James Menlove; Charles E. Werstak

2017-01-01

Integration of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data with Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) data can provide new information about fire effects on forests. This integration allowed broad-scale assessment of the cover types burned in large fires, the relationship between prefire stand conditions and fire severity, and postfire stand conditions. Of the 42...

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

DOE PAGES

Fyke, Jeremy; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Wang, Hailong

2017-11-15

Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and icemore » core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.« less

Self-reported immature defense style as a predictor of outcome in short-term and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Laaksonen, Maarit A; Sirkiä, Carlos; Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi

2014-07-01

Identification of pretreatment patient characteristics predictive of psychotherapy outcome could help to guide treatment choices. This study evaluates patients' initial level of immature defense style as a predictor of the outcome of short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 adult outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to individual short-term (psychodynamic or solution-focused) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy. Their defense style was assessed at baseline using the 88-item Defense Style Questionnaire and classified as low or high around the median value of the respective score. Both specific (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI], Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS], Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale [SCL-90-Anx], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale [HARS]) and global (Symptom Check List Global Severity Index [SCL-90-GSI], Global Assessment of Functioning Scale [GAF]) psychiatric symptoms were measured at baseline and 3-7 times during a 3-year follow-up. Patients with high use of immature defense style experienced greater symptom reduction in long-term than in short-term psychotherapy by the end of the 3-year follow-up (50% vs. 34%). Patients with low use of immature defense style experienced faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy during the first year of follow-up (34% vs. 19%). Knowledge of patients' initial level of immature defense style may potentially be utilized in tailoring treatments. Further research on defense styles as outcome predictors in psychotherapies of different types is needed.

Effect of aromatherapy massage on elderly patients under long-term hospitalization in Japan.

PubMed

Satou, Tadaaki; Chikama, Mizuki; Chikama, Yoshiko; Hachigo, Masato; Urayama, Haruna; Murakami, Shio; Hayashi, Shinichiro; Koikem, Kazuo

2013-03-01

To verify the effectiveness of aromatherapy massage on elderly patients under long-term hospitalization. Aromatherapy massage was performed twice a week for a total of eight times. Nursing home. Elderly women under long-term hospitalization. Questionnaire and measurement of stress marker levels (salivary amylase activity) before and after the first, fifth, and eighth aromatherapy massages. Questionnaire (Face scale, General Health Questionnaire-12 [GHQ-12]), measurement of salivary amylase activity. A decrease in stress after aromatherapy massage compared to before each massage was confirmed at all measurement times and with the stress marker. No marked reduction was observed in Face scale or saliva amylase activity as a whole over the long term, although decreasing tendencies were seen. Marked reductions in GHQ-12 were observed over the long term. Aroma massage appears likely to prove effective in reducing psychological stress among elderly patients under long-term hospitalization.

Approaches to advancescientific understanding of macrosystems ecology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levy, Ofir; Ball, Becky; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

Macrosystem ecological studies inherently investigate processes that interact across multiple spatial and temporal scales, requiring intensive sampling and massive amounts of data from diverse sources to incorporate complex cross-scale and hierarchical interactions. Inherent challenges associated with these characteristics include high computational demands, data standardization and assimilation, identification of important processes and scales without prior knowledge, and the need for large, cross-disciplinary research teams that conduct long-term studies. Therefore, macrosystem ecology studies must utilize a unique set of approaches that are capable of encompassing these methodological characteristics and associated challenges. Several case studies demonstrate innovative methods used in current macrosystem ecologymore » studies.« less

Emotional Variation and Fertility Behavior

PubMed Central

Axinn, William G.; Ghimire, Dirgha J.; Smith-Greenaway, Emily

2017-01-01

Emotional influences on fertility behaviors are an understudied topic that may offer a clear explanation of why many couples choose to have children even when childbearing is not economically rational. With setting-specific measures of the husband-wife emotional bond appropriate for large-scale population research matched with data from a long-term panel study, we have the empirical tools to provide a test of the influence of emotional factors on contraceptive use to limit fertility. This article presents those tests. We use long-term, multilevel community and family panel data to demonstrate that the variance in levels of husband-wife emotional bond is significantly associated with their subsequent use of contraception to avert births. We discuss the wide-ranging implications of this intriguing new result. PMID:28181103

An introduction to orbit dynamics and its application to satellite-based earth monitoring systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, D. R.

1977-01-01

The long term behavior of satellites is studied at a level of complexity suitable for the initial planning phases of earth monitoring missions. First-order perturbation theory is used to describe in detail the basic orbit dynamics of satellite motion around the earth and relative to the sun. Surface coverage capabilities of satellite orbits are examined. Several examples of simulated observation and monitoring missions are given to illustrate representative applications of the theory. The examples stress the need for devising ways of maximizing total mission output in order to make the best possible use of the resultant data base as input to those large-scale, long-term earth monitoring activities which can best justify the use of satellite systems.

Emotional Variation and Fertility Behavior.

PubMed

Axinn, William G; Ghimire, Dirgha J; Smith-Greenaway, Emily

2017-04-01

Emotional influences on fertility behaviors are an understudied topic that may offer a clear explanation of why many couples choose to have children even when childbearing is not economically rational. With setting-specific measures of the husband-wife emotional bond appropriate for large-scale population research matched with data from a long-term panel study, we have the empirical tools to provide a test of the influence of emotional factors on contraceptive use to limit fertility. This article presents those tests. We use long-term, multilevel community and family panel data to demonstrate that the variance in levels of husband-wife emotional bond is significantly associated with their subsequent use of contraception to avert births. We discuss the wide-ranging implications of this intriguing new result.

The Surface Energy Budget and Precipitation Efficiency for Convective Systems During TOGA, COARE, GATE, SCSMEX and ARM: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-L.; Johnson, D; Simpson, J.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model is used to simulate convective systems that developed in various geographic locations. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum derived from field campaigns are used as the main forcing. By examining the surface energy budgets, the model results show that the two largest terms are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening) for tropical oceanic cases. These two terms arc opposite in sign, however. The contributions by net radiation and latent heat flux to the net condensation vary in these tropical cases, however. For cloud systems that developed over the South China Sea and eastern Atlantic, net radiation (cooling) accounts for about 20% or more of the net condensation. However, short-wave heating and long-wave cooling are in balance with each other for cloud systems over the West Pacific region such that the net radiation is very small. This is due to the thick anvil clouds simulated in the cloud systems over the Pacific region. Large-scale cooling exceeds large-scale moistening in the Pacific and Atlantic cases. For cloud systems over the South China Sea, however, there is more large-scale moistening than cooling even though the cloud systems developed in a very moist environment. though For three cloud systems that developed over a mid-latitude continent, the net radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes play a much more important role. This means the accurate measurement of surface fluxes and radiation is crucial for simulating these mid-latitude cases.

Arbitrary-order Hilbert Spectral Analysis and Intermittency in Solar Wind Density Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbone, Francesco; Sorriso-Valvo, Luca; Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Chen, Christopher H. K.; Němeček, Zdenek; Šafránková, Jana

2018-05-01

The properties of inertial- and kinetic-range solar wind turbulence have been investigated with the arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analysis method, applied to high-resolution density measurements. Due to the small sample size and to the presence of strong nonstationary behavior and large-scale structures, the classical analysis in terms of structure functions may prove to be unsuccessful in detecting the power-law behavior in the inertial range, and may underestimate the scaling exponents. However, the Hilbert spectral method provides an optimal estimation of the scaling exponents, which have been found to be close to those for velocity fluctuations in fully developed hydrodynamic turbulence. At smaller scales, below the proton gyroscale, the system loses its intermittent multiscaling properties and converges to a monofractal process. The resulting scaling exponents, obtained at small scales, are in good agreement with those of classical fractional Brownian motion, indicating a long-term memory in the process, and the absence of correlations around the spectral-break scale. These results provide important constraints on models of kinetic-range turbulence in the solar wind.

Scale and modeling issues in water resources planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Wolock, D.M.; McCabe, G.J.

1997-01-01

Resource planners and managers interested in utilizing climate model output as part of their operational activities immediately confront the dilemma of scale discordance. Their functional responsibilities cover relatively small geographical areas and necessarily require data of relatively high spatial resolution. Climate models cover a large geographical, i.e. global, domain and produce data at comparatively low spatial resolution. Although the scale differences between model output and planning input are large, several techniques have been developed for disaggregating climate model output to a scale appropriate for use in water resource planning and management applications. With techniques in hand to reduce the limitations imposed by scale discordance, water resource professionals must now confront a more fundamental constraint on the use of climate models-the inability to produce accurate representations and forecasts of regional climate. Given the current capabilities of climate models, and the likelihood that the uncertainty associated with long-term climate model forecasts will remain high for some years to come, the water resources planning community may find it impractical to utilize such forecasts operationally.

Scale-dependent response from the invariant rescaling of stress in a self-gravitating thermomechanical Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkinson, John; Patton, Regan

2014-05-01

It is widely known that gravitation can be accounted for via general relativity in a four-dimensional manifold called spacetime. A direct corollary of this is that the observable characteristics of any self-gravitating body in space are closely tied to its 'rheology' - how stress and deformation are related to one another. The large-scale/long-term response of terrestrial planets to loading is arguably dissipative, which can be modeled using purely viscous rheology. Evidence for this includes Earth's flattened ellipsoidal configuration, the likely result of self-gravity and rotation. On the other hand, the small scale, short-term response of solid earth materials is arguably conservative, which can be modeled using purely elastic rheology. Evidence for this includes the propagation of shear waves throughout the crust and mantle. These general observations, combined with long-term creep and attenuation of seismic signals at the longest wavelengths, seems to suggest that networks of springs, dash pots, and sliding masses, although vogue, comprise only one possible family of an otherwise infinite number of rheological models. The response of solid earth materials to loading is a scale-dependent process and involves both elasticity (strain-energy storage) and viscosity (energy dissipation). Tectonic processes are controlled by regional stratification, lithology, thermal structure, fluid content, metamorphic reactions, and deformation rates, many aspects of which are inherited through geological time. Clearly, topography and igneous activity on terrestrial planets are closely allied phenomena, consistent with global and regional isostatic balance demonstrated through gravity-topography analysis. It is reasonable to conclude that crustal stratification and igneous activity are inherent features of the Earth system, which must be predicted by any self-consistent model. We have assumed that solid earth rheology can be modeled using the differential grade-2 (DG-2) material (Patton & Watkinson 2010, 2013). In consequence we find that all solid earth materials exhibit some degree of strength at the smallest scales, i.e. the ability to support a finite normal stress difference, and that deformation is dominated by dislocations. In contrast, solid-state deformation at large scales tends to be distributed, bordering on 'flow'. Ultimately, for DG-2 materials, we have demonstrated that toroidal motion of the lithosphere is governed by the diharmonic equation, while poloidal motion is driven by non-isotropic pressure gradients (Patton, submitted 2013). These conclusions have important implications for the estimation of the long-term rheological properties of the lithosphere based on the coarse-graining of laboratory rock-mechanics data. Specifically, work with DG-2 materials suggests that a diffusion-like mechanism is in play throughout the crust and upper mantle, and that the structure of this important region of the Earth can be profitably understood in terms of thermomechanical competence

Multi-scale integration and predictability in resting state brain activity

PubMed Central

Kolchinsky, Artemy; van den Heuvel, Martijn P.; Griffa, Alessandra; Hagmann, Patric; Rocha, Luis M.; Sporns, Olaf; Goñi, Joaquín

2014-01-01

The human brain displays heterogeneous organization in both structure and function. Here we develop a method to characterize brain regions and networks in terms of information-theoretic measures. We look at how these measures scale when larger spatial regions as well as larger connectome sub-networks are considered. This framework is applied to human brain fMRI recordings of resting-state activity and DSI-inferred structural connectivity. We find that strong functional coupling across large spatial distances distinguishes functional hubs from unimodal low-level areas, and that this long-range functional coupling correlates with structural long-range efficiency on the connectome. We also find a set of connectome regions that are both internally integrated and coupled to the rest of the brain, and which resemble previously reported resting-state networks. Finally, we argue that information-theoretic measures are useful for characterizing the functional organization of the brain at multiple scales. PMID:25104933

Real-Time and Meter-Scale Absolute Distance Measurement by Frequency-Comb-Referenced Multi-Wavelength Interferometry.

PubMed

Wang, Guochao; Tan, Lilong; Yan, Shuhua

2018-02-07

We report on a frequency-comb-referenced absolute interferometer which instantly measures long distance by integrating multi-wavelength interferometry with direct synthetic wavelength interferometry. The reported interferometer utilizes four different wavelengths, simultaneously calibrated to the frequency comb of a femtosecond laser, to implement subwavelength distance measurement, while direct synthetic wavelength interferometry is elaborately introduced by launching a fifth wavelength to extend a non-ambiguous range for meter-scale measurement. A linearity test performed comparatively with a He-Ne laser interferometer shows a residual error of less than 70.8 nm in peak-to-valley over a 3 m distance, and a 10 h distance comparison is demonstrated to gain fractional deviations of ~3 × 10 -8 versus 3 m distance. Test results reveal that the presented absolute interferometer enables precise, stable, and long-term distance measurements and facilitates absolute positioning applications such as large-scale manufacturing and space missions.

Real-Time and Meter-Scale Absolute Distance Measurement by Frequency-Comb-Referenced Multi-Wavelength Interferometry

PubMed Central

Tan, Lilong; Yan, Shuhua

2018-01-01

We report on a frequency-comb-referenced absolute interferometer which instantly measures long distance by integrating multi-wavelength interferometry with direct synthetic wavelength interferometry. The reported interferometer utilizes four different wavelengths, simultaneously calibrated to the frequency comb of a femtosecond laser, to implement subwavelength distance measurement, while direct synthetic wavelength interferometry is elaborately introduced by launching a fifth wavelength to extend a non-ambiguous range for meter-scale measurement. A linearity test performed comparatively with a He–Ne laser interferometer shows a residual error of less than 70.8 nm in peak-to-valley over a 3 m distance, and a 10 h distance comparison is demonstrated to gain fractional deviations of ~3 × 10−8 versus 3 m distance. Test results reveal that the presented absolute interferometer enables precise, stable, and long-term distance measurements and facilitates absolute positioning applications such as large-scale manufacturing and space missions. PMID:29414897

Large Scale Landslide Database System Established for the Reservoirs in Southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Tsai-Tsung; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Shieh, Chjeng-Lun

2017-04-01

Typhoon Morakot seriously attack southern Taiwan awaken the public awareness of large scale landslide disasters. Large scale landslide disasters produce large quantity of sediment due to negative effects on the operating functions of reservoirs. In order to reduce the risk of these disasters within the study area, the establishment of a database for hazard mitigation / disaster prevention is necessary. Real time data and numerous archives of engineering data, environment information, photo, and video, will not only help people make appropriate decisions, but also bring the biggest concern for people to process and value added. The study tried to define some basic data formats / standards from collected various types of data about these reservoirs and then provide a management platform based on these formats / standards. Meanwhile, in order to satisfy the practicality and convenience, the large scale landslide disasters database system is built both provide and receive information abilities, which user can use this large scale landslide disasters database system on different type of devices. IT technology progressed extreme quick, the most modern system might be out of date anytime. In order to provide long term service, the system reserved the possibility of user define data format /standard and user define system structure. The system established by this study was based on HTML5 standard language, and use the responsive web design technology. This will make user can easily handle and develop this large scale landslide disasters database system.

The legacy effects of keystone individuals on collective behaviour scale to how long they remain within a group

PubMed Central

Pruitt, Jonathan N.; Pinter-Wollman, Noa

2015-01-01

The collective behaviour of social groups is often strongly influenced by one or few individuals, termed here ‘keystone individuals’. We examined whether the influence of keystone individuals on collective behaviour lingers after their departure and whether these lingering effects scale with their tenure in the group. In the social spider, Stegodyphus dumicola, colonies' boldest individuals wield a disproportionately large influence over colony behaviour. We experimentally manipulated keystones' tenure in laboratory-housed colonies and tracked their legacy effects on collective prey capture following their removal. We found that bolder keystones caused more aggressive collective foraging behaviour and catalysed greater inter-individual variation in boldness within their colonies. The longer keystones remained in a colony, the longer both of these effects lingered after their departure. Our data demonstrate that, long after their disappearance, keystones have large and lasting effects on social dynamics at both the individual and colony levels. PMID:26336171

Large scale cryogenic fluid systems testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

NASA Lewis Research Center's Cryogenic Fluid Systems Branch (CFSB) within the Space Propulsion Technology Division (SPTD) has the ultimate goal of enabling the long term storage and in-space fueling/resupply operations for spacecraft and reusable vehicles in support of space exploration. Using analytical modeling, ground based testing, and on-orbit experimentation, the CFSB is studying three primary categories of fluid technology: storage, supply, and transfer. The CFSB is also investigating fluid handling, advanced instrumentation, and tank structures and materials. Ground based testing of large-scale systems is done using liquid hydrogen as a test fluid at the Cryogenic Propellant Tank Facility (K-site) at Lewis' Plum Brook Station in Sandusky, Ohio. A general overview of tests involving liquid transfer, thermal control, pressure control, and pressurization is given.

A combined long-term recording system for single-unit activity and neurotransmitter efflux of a brain slice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheu, Y. H.; Young, M. S.

1998-04-01

A combined long-term measurement and recording system for neurotransmission research of brain slices is presented in this study. This system, based on the IBM PC or compatible computer, is capable of simultaneously measuring and recording both single-unit neural electropotential signals and the electrochemical signals of neurotransmitter efflux from the same neuron in a brain slice for long periods of time (time limited largely by hard disk capacity, 100 h or more not being unreasonable with contemporary hardware) using a single carbon microelectrode for both measurements. The combined long-term recording system uses a simple switching circuit to switch periodically the single microelectrode between two data acquisition subsystems, one for electrochemical data and one for electrophysiological data. The simple switching circuit separates the electrophysiological signals and electrochemical signals, overcoming the traditional interference problem caused by the two different measuring techniques. Software designed for the proposed system allows easy reconstruction of the full time course of the compressed measured data and easy, simultaneous display of both types of signals on the same time scale. On-line and recorded displays are available. Test results of a practical implementation of the proposed system verify that the combined long-term recording system meets actual requirements for electrophysiological and neurochemical research.

Utilization of Integrated Assessment Modeling for determining geologic CO2 storage security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, R.

2017-12-01

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been extensively studied as a potential technology to mitigate atmospheric concentration of CO2. Multiple international research & development efforts, large-scale demonstration and commercial projects are helping advance the technology. One of the critical areas of active investigation is prediction of long-term CO2 storage security and risks. A quantitative methodology for predicting a storage site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. These predictions are challenging given that they require simulating CO2 and in-situ fluid movements as well as interactions through the primary storage reservoir, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, faults, etc.) and shallow resources such as groundwater aquifers. They need to take into account the inherent variability and uncertainties at geologic sites. This talk will provide an overview of an approach based on integrated assessment modeling (IAM) to predict long-term performance of a geologic storage site including, storage reservoir, potential leakage pathways and shallow groundwater aquifers. The approach utilizes reduced order models (ROMs) to capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. Applicability of the approach will be demonstrated through examples that are focused on key storage security questions such as what is the probability of leakage of CO2 from a storage reservoir? how does storage security vary for different geologic environments and operational conditions? how site parameter variability and uncertainties affect storage security, etc.

In the absence of a "landscape of fear": How lions, hyenas, and cheetahs coexist.

PubMed

Swanson, Alexandra; Arnold, Todd; Kosmala, Margaret; Forester, James; Packer, Craig

2016-12-01

Aggression by top predators can create a "landscape of fear" in which subordinate predators restrict their activity to low-risk areas or times of day. At large spatial or temporal scales, this can result in the costly loss of access to resources. However, fine-scale reactive avoidance may minimize the risk of aggressive encounters for subordinate predators while maintaining access to resources, thereby providing a mechanism for coexistence. We investigated fine-scale spatiotemporal avoidance in a guild of African predators characterized by intense interference competition. Vulnerable to food stealing and direct killing, cheetahs are expected to avoid both larger predators; hyenas are expected to avoid lions. We deployed a grid of 225 camera traps across 1,125 km 2 in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, to evaluate concurrent patterns of habitat use by lions, hyenas, cheetahs, and their primary prey. We used hurdle models to evaluate whether smaller species avoided areas preferred by larger species, and we used time-to-event models to evaluate fine-scale temporal avoidance in the hours immediately surrounding top predator activity. We found no evidence of long-term displacement of subordinate species, even at fine spatial scales. Instead, hyenas and cheetahs were positively associated with lions except in areas with exceptionally high lion use. Hyenas and lions appeared to actively track each, while cheetahs appear to maintain long-term access to sites with high lion use by actively avoiding those areas just in the hours immediately following lion activity. Our results suggest that cheetahs are able to use patches of preferred habitat by avoiding lions on a moment-to-moment basis. Such fine-scale temporal avoidance is likely to be less costly than long-term avoidance of preferred areas: This may help explain why cheetahs are able to coexist with lions despite high rates of lion-inflicted mortality, and highlights reactive avoidance as a general mechanism for predator coexistence.

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

PubMed

Kanamori, H

1996-04-30

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

NEON: Contributing continental-scale long-term environmental data for the benefit of society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wee, B.; Aulenbach, S.

2011-12-01

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is a NSF funded national investment in physical and information infrastructure. Large-scale environmental changes pose challenges that straddle environmental, economic, and social boundaries. As we develop climate adaptation strategies at the Federal, state, local, and tribal levels, accessible and usable data are essential for implementing actions that are informed by the best available information. NEON's goal is to enable understanding and forecasting of the impacts of climate change, land use change and invasive species on continental-scale ecology by providing physical and information infrastructure. The NEON framework will take standardized, long-term, coordinated measurements of related environmental variables at each of its 62 sites across the nation. These observations, collected by automated instruments, field crews, and airborne instruments, will be processed into more than 700 data products that are provided freely over the web to support research, education, and environmental management. NEON is envisioned to be an integral component of an interoperable ecosystem of credible data and information sources. Other members of this information ecosystem include Federal, commercial, and non-profit entities. NEON is actively involved with the interoperability community via forums like the Foundation for Earth Science Information Partners and the USGS Community for Data Integration in a collective effort to identify the technical standards, best practices, and organizational principles that enable the emergence of such an information ecosystem. These forums have proven to be effective innovation engines for the experimentation of new techniques that evolve into emergent standards. These standards are, for the most part, discipline agnostic. It is becoming increasingly evident that we need to include socio-economic and public health data sources in interoperability initiatives, because the dynamics of coupled natural-human systems cannot be understood in the absence of data about the human dimension. Another essential element is the community of tool and platform developers who create the infrastructure for scientists, educators, resource managers, and policy analysts to discover, analyze, and collaborate on problems using the diverse data that are required to address emerging large-scale environmental challenges. These challenges are very unlikely to be problems confined to this generation: they are urgent, compelling, and long-term problems that require a sustained effort to generate and curate data and information from observations, models, and experiments. NEON's long-term national physical and information infrastructure for environmental observation is one of the cornerstones of a framework that transforms science and information for the benefit of society.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D.; Kiem, A. S.

2008-10-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Analysis of five years of continuous GPS recording at Piton de La Fournaise (R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, A.; Staudacher, T.; Boissier, P.; Lauret, F.; Kowalski, P.

2009-04-01

A network of twelve permanent GPS stations has been implemented since 2004 at Piton de La Fournaise (hot spot basaltic volcano of La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) to follow the ground deformation associated with its high eruptive activity. During the period covered by the continuous GPS recording, 12 eruptions occurred. The compilation of the data recorded between 2004 and 2008 allows us to define two time scales of ground deformation systematically associated with this eruptive activity: (1) Large short-term displacements, reaching up to 14 mm/min, monitored a few min to hours prior each eruption during magma injections toward the surface (co-eruptive deformation); (2) But also, small long-term ground displacements recorded during inter-eruptive periods. Between 2 weeks and 5 months before each eruption a slight summit inflation occurs (0.4-0.7 mm/day); whereas a post-eruptive summit deflation lasting 1 to 3 months is only recorded after the largest distal eruptions (0.3 - 1.3 mm/day). These two time scales ground deformation precursors allowed us to forecast all eruptions up to five months in advance. And the follow up of the large short-term displacement in real-time allowed us to evaluated the approximate location of the eruptive fissure a few min to hours before its opening (i.e. inside the summit crater, northern flank or southern flank). The large short-term ground displacements have been attributed to the dyke propagation toward the surface, whereas the long-term ground displacements, which were also recorded by the extensometer network since 2000, have been attributed to a continuous over pressurization of the shallow magma reservoir located at about 2300m depth. The continuous over-pressurization of the shallow magma reservoir would explain the high eruptive activity observed since 1998; 27 eruptions in 10 years.

Low-cost and large-scale flexible SERS-cotton fabric as a wipe substrate for surface trace analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanmin; Ge, Fengyan; Guang, Shanyi; Cai, Zaisheng

2018-04-01

The large-scale surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) cotton fabrics were fabricated based on traditional woven ones using a dyeing-like method of vat dyes, where silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) were in-situ synthesized by 'dipping-reducing-drying' process. By controlling the concentration of AgNO3 solution, the optimal SERS cotton fabric was obtained, which had a homogeneous close packing of Ag NPs. The SERS cotton fabric was employed to detect p-Aminothiophenol (PATP). It was found that the new fabric possessed excellent reproducibility (about 20%), long-term stability (about 57 days) and high SERS sensitivity with a detected concentration as low as 10-12 M. Furthermore, owing to the excellent mechanical flexibility and good absorption ability, the SERS cotton fabric was employed to detect carbaryl on the surface of an apple by simply swabbing, which showed great potential in fast trace analysis. More importantly, this study may realize large-scale production with low cost by a traditional cotton fabric.

Plentern mit Kiefern--Ergebnisse aus den USA [Plentering with pines--results from the United States

Treesearch

James M. Guldin; Don C. Bragg; Andreas Zingg

2017-01-01

Until now, scientifically reliable data on plentering of light-demanding tree species in Europe have been lacking. This gap is filled with long-term trials from the USA, among others with southern yellow pines. In the southern state of Arkansas, two plots of 16 hectares were installed in 1936, in the context of a large-scale trial of mixed loblolly pine (...

Changes in forest habitat classes under alternative climate and land-use change scenarios in the northeast and midwest, USA

Treesearch

Brian G. Tavernia; Mark D. Nelson; Michael E. Goerndt; Brian F. Walters; Chris Toney

2013-01-01

Large-scale and long-term habitat management plans are needed to maintain the diversity of habitat classes required by wildlife species. Planning efforts would benefit from assessments of potential climate and land-use change effects on habitats. We assessed climate and land-use driven changes in areas of closed- and open-canopy forest across the Northeast and Midwest...

The effect of biochar amendment on the soil microbial community - PLFA analyses and 13C labeling results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watzinger, A.; Feichtmair, S.; Rempt, F.; Anders, E.; Wimmer, B.; Kitzler, B.; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, S.; Horacek, M.; Zehetner, F.; Kloss, S.; Richoz, S.; Soja, G.

2012-04-01

The effects of biochar amendment on plant growth and on the chemical / physical soil characteristics are well explored but only few studies have investigated the impact on soil microorganisms. The response of the soil microbial community to biochar amendment was investigated by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis in (i) a large scale pot experiment, (ii) a small scale pot experiment using 13C labeled biochar and (iii) an incubation study using 13C labeled biochar. In the large scale pot experiment, three different agricultural soils from Austria (Planosol, Cambisol, Chernozem) and four different types of biochar were investigated. In total, 25 treatments with 5 replicates each were set up and monitored over a year. The results from the pot experiments showed no significant influence of biochar amendment on the total microbial biomass in the first 100 days after biochar addition. However, discriminant analysis showed a distinction of biochar and control soils as well as a strong effect of the pyrolysis temperature on the microbial composition. The effect of biochar was dependent on the type of soil. In the Planosol, some PLFAs were affected positively, especially when adding biochar with a low pyrolysis temperature, in the first month. In the long term, microbial community composition altered. Growth of fungi and gram negative bacteria was enhanced. In the Chernozem, PLFAs from various microbial groups decreased in the long term. Variability in the incubation study was low. Consequently, many PLFAs were significantly affected by biochar amendment. Again, in the Planosol, gram negative bacteria, actinomycetes and, after 2 weeks, gram positive bacteria increased under biochar amendment whereas in the chernozem total microbial biomass and gram positive bacteria were negatively affected in the long term. The 13C labeling studies confirmed the low degradability of the biochar, i.e. no alteration of the content and the δ13C in the soil organic matter within 100 days, decreased CO2 emission after biochar addition and little 13C signature from the biochar in the respired CO2. The uptake of the labeled biochar into the microbial PLFAs was analysed and will provide an evidence if biochar was used as a carbon source. In addition, the long term effect of biochar amendment (beyond 100 days) on the soil microbial community is currently investigated. These results will be also presented in the oncoming meeting.

Statistical Downscaling in Multi-dimensional Wave Climate Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Méndez, F. J.; Medina, R.; Losada, I. J.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2009-04-01

Wave climate at a particular site is defined by the statistical distribution of sea state parameters, such as significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction, wind velocity, wind direction and storm surge. Nowadays, long-term time series of these parameters are available from reanalysis databases obtained by numerical models. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique is applied to characterize multi-dimensional wave climate, obtaining the relevant "wave types" spanning the historical variability. This technique summarizes multi-dimension of wave climate in terms of a set of clusters projected in low-dimensional lattice with a spatial organization, providing Probability Density Functions (PDFs) on the lattice. On the other hand, wind and storm surge depend on instantaneous local large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) fields while waves depend on the recent history of these fields (say, 1 to 5 days). Thus, these variables are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this work, a nearest-neighbors analog method is used to predict monthly multi-dimensional wave climate. This method establishes relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from numerical models (SLP fields as predictors) with local wave databases of observations (monthly wave climate SOM PDFs as predictand) to set up statistical models. A wave reanalysis database, developed by Puertos del Estado (Ministerio de Fomento), is considered as historical time series of local variables. The simultaneous SLP fields calculated by NCEP atmospheric reanalysis are used as predictors. Several applications with different size of sea level pressure grid and with different temporal domain resolution are compared to obtain the optimal statistical model that better represents the monthly wave climate at a particular site. In this work we examine the potential skill of this downscaling approach considering perfect-model conditions, but we will also analyze the suitability of this methodology to be used for seasonal forecast and for long-term climate change scenario projection of wave climate.

Negative long term effects on harbour porpoises from a large scale offshore wind farm in the Baltic—evidence of slow recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teilmann, Jonas; Carstensen, Jacob

2012-12-01

Offshore wind farms constitute a new and fast growing industry all over the world. This study investigates the long term impact on harbour porpoises, Phocoena phocoena, for more than 10 years (2001-12) from the first large scale offshore wind farm in the world, Nysted Offshore Wind Farm, in the Danish western Baltic Sea (72 × 2.3 MW turbines). The wind farm was brought into full operation in December 2003. At six stations, acoustic porpoise detectors (T-PODs) were placed inside the wind farm area and at a reference area 10 km to the east, to monitor porpoise echolocation activity as a proxy of porpoise presence. A modified statistical BACI design was applied to detect changes in porpoise presence before, during and after construction of the wind farm. The results show that the echolocation activity has significantly declined inside Nysted Offshore Wind Farm since the baseline in 2001-2 and has not fully recovered yet. The echolocation activity inside the wind farm has been gradually increasing (from 11% to 29% of the baseline level) since the construction of the wind farm, possibly due to habituation of the porpoises to the wind farm or enrichment of the environment due to reduced fishing and to artificial reef effects.

Self-reported immature defense style as a predictor of outcome in short-term and long-term psychotherapy

PubMed Central

Laaksonen, Maarit A; Sirkiä, Carlos; Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi

2014-01-01

Objective Identification of pretreatment patient characteristics predictive of psychotherapy outcome could help to guide treatment choices. This study evaluates patients' initial level of immature defense style as a predictor of the outcome of short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. Method In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 adult outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to individual short-term (psychodynamic or solution-focused) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy. Their defense style was assessed at baseline using the 88-item Defense Style Questionnaire and classified as low or high around the median value of the respective score. Both specific (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI], Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS], Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale [SCL-90-Anx], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale [HARS]) and global (Symptom Check List Global Severity Index [SCL-90-GSI], Global Assessment of Functioning Scale [GAF]) psychiatric symptoms were measured at baseline and 3–7 times during a 3-year follow-up. Results Patients with high use of immature defense style experienced greater symptom reduction in long-term than in short-term psychotherapy by the end of the 3-year follow-up (50% vs. 34%). Patients with low use of immature defense style experienced faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy during the first year of follow-up (34% vs. 19%). Conclusion Knowledge of patients' initial level of immature defense style may potentially be utilized in tailoring treatments. Further research on defense styles as outcome predictors in psychotherapies of different types is needed. PMID:25161816

Usefulness of Wave Data Assimilation to the WAVE WATCH III Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. K.; Dykes, J. D.; Yaremchuk, M.; Wittmann, P.

2017-12-01

In-situ and remote-sensed wave data are more abundant currently than in years past, with excellent accuracy at global scales. Forecast skill of the WAVE WATCH III model is improved by assimilation of these measurements and they are also useful for model validation and calibration. It has been known that the impact of assimilation in wind-sea conditions is not large, but spectra that result in large swell with long term propagation are identified and assimilated, the improved accuracy of the initial conditions improve the long-term forecasts. The Navy's assimilation method started with the simple Optimal Interpolation (OI) method. Operationally, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center uses the sequential 2DVar scheme, but a new approach has been tested based on an adjoint-free method to variational assimilation in WAVE WATCH III. We will present the status of wave data assimilation into the WAVE WATCH III numerical model and upcoming development of this new adjoint-free variational approach.

Dry, drier, driest: An Australian story of extreme years and potential ecosystem collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wardle, G. M.; Dickman, C. R.; Greenville, A. C.

2016-12-01

Ecosystems are expected to undergo large changes due to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. We can expect droughts to be longer, flooding to be more intense, and heatwaves and fires to increase. Importantly, at the regional scale these projections which are based on global climate models come with additional uncertainties that challenge how we can plan and evaluate options for adaptation. For many ecosystems, the understanding of the interdependencies and function is still limited, and particularly so for areas such as inland Australia that already exhibit unpredictable rainfall and lack strong seasonality. These drylands are water-limited and operate differently in dry, or wet years, when episodic pulses of resources drive increases in productivity. Increased extremes have the potential to disrupt the function of these highly dynamic and complex systems through feedbacks, synergies and through memory or delayed responses to change. Using our long-term work in the Simpson Desert as a case study, we explore the trends in productivity, the responses of flora and fauna to these opportunities and the spatial connectedness and heterogeneities that support the persistence of the ecosystem through dry times. Theory tells us that ecosystems may shift states abruptly when they cross critical thresholds. For example, arid grasslands may no longer have the capacity to return to a productive state following good rains. This happens under desertification, where plant cover and growth is limited — with flow on consequences for the entire ecosystem. Forecasting such changes is crucial but the fundamental knowledge relies on information that spans both long time scales and large spatial scales. We examine the knowledge gaps in quantifying ecosystem collapse using our IUCN ecosystem risk assessment of the Georgina gidgee woodlands. We conclude by arguing that without long-term data on trends and integration across the biophysical and and biological components at large spatial scales we cannot hope to anticipate ecosystem collapse and take appropriate action. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network is leading the way for Australia to contribute to this important global ecosystem capability.

Modern pollen deposition in Long Island Sound

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beuning, Kristina R.M.; Fransen, Lindsey; Nakityo, Berna; Mecray, Ellen L.; Buchholtz ten Brink, Marilyn R.

2000-01-01

Palynological analyses of 20 surface sediment samples collected from Long Island Sound show a pollen assemblage dominated by Carya, Betula, Pinus, Quercus, Tsuga, and Ambrosia, as is consistent with the regional vegetation. No trends in relative abundance of these pollen types occur either from west to east or associated with modern riverine inputs throughout the basin. Despite the large-scale, long-term removal of fine-grained sediment from winnowed portions of the eastern Sound, the composition of the pollen and spore component of the sedimentary matrix conforms to a basin-wide homogeneous signal. These results strongly support the use of select regional palynological boundaries as chronostratigraphic tools to provide a framework for interpretation of the late glacial and Holocene history of the Long Island Sound basin sediments.

Testing the robustness of Citizen Science projects: Evaluating the results of pilot project COMBER

PubMed Central

Faulwetter, Sarah; Dailianis, Thanos; Smith, Vincent Stuart; Koulouri, Panagiota; Dounas, Costas; Arvanitidis, Christos

2016-01-01

Abstract Background Citizen Science (CS) as a term implies a great deal of approaches and scopes involving many different fields of science. The number of the relevant projects globally has been increased significantly in the recent years. Large scale ecological questions can be answered only through extended observation networks and CS projects can support this effort. Although the need of such projects is apparent, an important part of scientific community cast doubt on the reliability of CS data sets. New information The pilot CS project COMBER has been created in order to provide evidence to answer the aforementioned question in the coastal marine biodiversity monitoring. The results of the current analysis show that a carefully designed CS project with clear hypotheses, wide participation and data sets validation, can be a valuable tool for the large scale and long term changes in marine biodiversity pattern change and therefore for relevant management and conservation issues. PMID:28174507

Multiple regression and Artificial Neural Network for long-term rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekanik, F.; Imteaz, M. A.; Gato-Trinidad, S.; Elmahdi, A.

2013-10-01

In this study, the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple regression analysis (MR) to forecast long-term seasonal spring rainfall in Victoria, Australia was investigated using lagged El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as potential predictors. The use of dual (combined lagged ENSO-IOD) input sets for calibrating and validating ANN and MR Models is proposed to investigate the simultaneous effect of past values of these two major climate modes on long-term spring rainfall prediction. The MR models that did not violate the limits of statistical significance and multicollinearity were selected for future spring rainfall forecast. The ANN was developed in the form of multilayer perceptron using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Both MR and ANN modelling were assessed statistically using mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson correlation (r) and Willmott index of agreement (d). The developed MR and ANN models were tested on out-of-sample test sets; the MR models showed very poor generalisation ability for east Victoria with correlation coefficients of -0.99 to -0.90 compared to ANN with correlation coefficients of 0.42-0.93; ANN models also showed better generalisation ability for central and west Victoria with correlation coefficients of 0.68-0.85 and 0.58-0.97 respectively. The ability of multiple regression models to forecast out-of-sample sets is compatible with ANN for Daylesford in central Victoria and Kaniva in west Victoria (r = 0.92 and 0.67 respectively). The errors of the testing sets for ANN models are generally lower compared to multiple regression models. The statistical analysis suggest the potential of ANN over MR models for rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes.

Deep crustal faults and the origin and long-term flank stability of Mt. Etna : First results from the CIRCEE cruise (Oct. 2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutscher, Marc-Andre; Dominguez, Stephane; Mercier de Lepinay, Bernard; Pinheiro, Luis; Babonneau, Nathalie; Cattaneo, Antonio; LeFaou, Yann; Barreca, Giovanni; Micallef, Aaron; Rovere, Marzia

2014-05-01

The relation between deep crustal faults and the origin of Mount Etna, the largest and most active volcano in Europe has long been suspected due to its unusual geodynamic location. Results from a new marine geophysical survey offshore Eastern Sicily reveal the detailed geometry (location, length, dip and orientation) of a two-branched 200-km long, lithospheric scale fault system, long sought for as being the cause of Mount Etna. Using high-resolution bathymetry and seismic profiling, we image a 60-km long, previously unidentified, NW trending fault with evidence of recent displacement at the seafloor, offsetting Holocene sediments. This newly identified fault connects NE of Catania, to a known 40-km long, offshore-onshore fault system dissecting the southeastern flank of Mount Etna, generally interpreted as purely gravitational collapse structures. Geological and morphological field studies together with earthquake focal mechanisms indicate active dextral strike-slip motion along the onshore and shallow offshore portion of this 40 + 60 km long segment. The southern 100 km branch of the fault is associated with a sub-vertical lithospheric scale tear fault showing pure down to the East normal faulting and a 500+m thick elongate basin marked by syn-tectonic Plio-quaternary sediment fill. Together they represent two kinematically distinct strands of the long sought "STEP" (Subduction Tear Edge Propagator) fault, whose expression at depth controls the position of Mount Etna. Both 100-km long branches of the fault system are mechanically capable of generating magnitude 7 earthquakes (e.g. - like the 1693 Catania earthquake, the strongest in Italian history, causing 40,000 deaths). We conclude this deep-rooted lithospheric weakness guides gradual down slope creep of Mount Etna and may lead to long-term catastrophic flank collapse with associated tsunami by large-scale mass wasting.

Cannabis, 1977.

PubMed

1978-10-01

Recent advances in development of immunoassay methods for marijuana constituents in body fluids provide a rapid means of detection for forensic purposes and a useful research tool for accurate quantitation of dose-response relation. Therapeutic possibilities of cannabis, such as reduction in intraocular pressure and bronchodilatation, may stimulate development of synthetic cannabinoid derivatives that meet acceptable standards of safety and effiicacy for treatment of glaucoma and asthma. Cannabis use may have harmful short- and long-term impacts on health. Potentially serious short-term effects include predisposition to angina during exercise in patients with coronary artery disease. Even in healthy subjects, marijuana smoking decreases peak exercise performance, possibly because of its chronotropic effect with achievement of maximum heart rate at reduced work loads. Although no conclusive evidence exists for long-term biologic consequences of chronic cannabis use, preliminary evidence, suggesting impairment in pulmonary function and immune responses, requires further investigation with large-scale epidemiologic studies.

Variation of Accumulation Rates Over the Last Eight Centuries on the East Antarctic Plateau Derived from Volcanic Signals in Ice Cores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anschuetz, H.; Sinisalo, A.; Isaksson, E.; McConnell, J. R.; Hamran, S.-E.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Pasteris, D.; Neumann, T. A.; Winther, J.-G.

2011-01-01

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007-2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963- 2007/08 being up to 25 % different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10-20 % over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

Traffic-related particulate air pollution exposure in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrego, C.; Tchepel, O.; Costa, A. M.; Martins, H.; Ferreira, J.; Miranda, A. I.

In the last years, there has been an increase of scientific studies confirming that long- and short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) pollution leads to adverse health effects. The development of a methodology for the determination of accumulated human exposure in urban areas is the main objective of the current work, combining information on concentrations at different microenvironments and population time-activity pattern data. A link between a mesoscale meteorological and dispersion model and a local scale air quality model was developed to define the boundary conditions for the local scale application. The time-activity pattern of the population was derived from statistical information for different sub-population groups and linked to digital city maps. Finally, the hourly PM 10 concentrations for indoor and outdoor microenvironments were estimated for the Lisbon city centre, which was chosen as the case-study, based on the local scale air quality model application for a selected period. This methodology is a first approach to estimate population exposure, calculated as the total daily values above the thresholds recommended for long- and short-term health effects. Obtained results reveal that in Lisbon city centre a large number of persons are exposed to PM levels exceeding the legislated limit value.

Abundance fluctuations among benthic invertebrates in two pacific estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Frederic H.

1985-01-01

Long-term studies were used to examine (1) contrasting time scales and mechanisms of structural variations within two benthic communities and (2) the usefulness of long data sets for evaluating human impact. A 10-year study of a San Francisco Bay mudflat, the details of which are reported elsewhere, has revealed large short-term (on the order of months) variations in species abundances within a community composed predominantly of opportunistic species. The study site, located in a highly urbanized estuary, is subject to the influence of a nearby sewage-treatment facility. However, rapid changes in population size of the common species, in part due to periodic natural habitat disturbance, impedes the detection of anthropogenic influences on community composition. Only a very long-term data set may provide evidence of progressive change. Data collected for a 20-year period on the benthic community at 200 m depth in the main basin of Puget Sound, an environment subject to little apparent habitat disturbance show that numerical abundance of the common species can also change markedly. Here, however, numerical dominance shifts from one species to another at irregular, multiyear intervals. Recent increases in two heretofore rare species, and a significant increase in total numbers of individuals suggest that long-term changes may be occurring in this community. These two long-term data sets demonstrate the importance of measuring both the amplitude and the periodicity of fluctuations in population size of aquatic species as well as long-term fluctuations and patterns in environmental factors before attempting to demonstrate the effect of anthropogenic influences on aquatic communities. The results of these studies also demonstrate the usefulness of long-term data sets for revealing the potential importance of interactions among species in determining abundance patterns in the soft-bottom benthos.

Clinically meaningful parameters of progression and long-term outcome of Parkinson disease: An international consensus statement.

PubMed

Puschmann, Andreas; Brighina, Laura; Markopoulou, Katerina; Aasly, Jan; Chung, Sun Ju; Frigerio, Roberta; Hadjigeorgiou, Georgios; Kõks, Sulev; Krüger, Rejko; Siuda, Joanna; Wider, Christian; Zesiewicz, Theresa A; Maraganore, Demetrius M

2015-07-01

Parkinson disease (PD) is associated with a clinical course of variable duration, severity, and a combination of motor and non-motor features. Recent PD research has focused primarily on etiology rather than clinical progression and long-term outcomes. For the PD patient, caregivers, and clinicians, information on expected clinical progression and long-term outcomes is of great importance. Today, it remains largely unknown what factors influence long-term clinical progression and outcomes in PD; recent data indicate that the factors that increase the risk to develop PD differ, at least partly, from those that accelerate clinical progression and lead to worse outcomes. Prospective studies will be required to identify factors that influence progression and outcome. We suggest that data for such studies is collected during routine office visits in order to guarantee high external validity of such research. We report here the results of a consensus meeting of international movement disorder experts from the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's Disease (GEO-PD) consortium, who convened to define which long-term outcomes are of interest to patients, caregivers and clinicians, and what is presently known about environmental or genetic factors influencing clinical progression or long-term outcomes in PD. We propose a panel of rating scales that collects a significant amount of phenotypic information, can be performed in the routine office visit and allows international standardization. Research into the progression and long-term outcomes of PD aims at providing individual prognostic information early, adapting treatment choices, and taking specific measures to provide care optimized to the individual patient's needs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Basic numerical competences in large-scale assessment data: Structure and long-term relevance.

PubMed

Hirsch, Stefa; Lambert, Katharina; Coppens, Karien; Moeller, Korbinian

2018-03-01

Basic numerical competences are seen as building blocks for later numerical and mathematical achievement. The current study aimed at investigating the structure of early numeracy reflected by different basic numerical competences in kindergarten and its predictive value for mathematical achievement 6 years later using data from large-scale assessment. This allowed analyses based on considerably large sample sizes (N > 1700). A confirmatory factor analysis indicated that a model differentiating five basic numerical competences at the end of kindergarten fitted the data better than a one-factor model of early numeracy representing a comprehensive number sense. In addition, these basic numerical competences were observed to reliably predict performance in a curricular mathematics test in Grade 6 even after controlling for influences of general cognitive ability. Thus, our results indicated a differentiated view on early numeracy considering basic numerical competences in kindergarten reflected in large-scale assessment data. Consideration of different basic numerical competences allows for evaluating their specific predictive value for later mathematical achievement but also mathematical learning difficulties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term mass transfer and mixing-controlled reactions of a DNAPL plume from persistent residuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuan; Illangasekare, Tissa H.; Kitanidis, Peter K.

2014-02-01

Understanding and being able to predict the long-term behavior of DNAPL (i.e., PCE and TCE) residuals after active remediation has ceased have become increasingly important as attention at many sites turns from aggressive remediation to monitored natural attenuation and long-term stewardship. However, plume behavior due to mass loading and reactions during these later phases is less studied as they involve large spatial and temporal scales. We apply both theoretical analysis and pore-scale simulations to investigate mass transfer from DNAPL residuals and subsequent reactions within the generated plume, and, in particular, to show the differences between early- and late-time behaviors of the plume. In the zone of entry of the DNAPL entrapment zone where the concentration boundary layer in the flowing groundwater has not fully developed, the pore-scale simulations confirm the past findings based on laboratory studies that the mass transfer increases as a power-law function of the Peclét number, and is enhanced due to reactions in the plume. Away from the entry zone and further down gradient, the long-term reactions are limited by the available additive and mixing in the porous medium, thereby behave considerably differently from the entry zone. For the reaction between the contaminant and an additive with intrinsic second-order bimolecular kinetics, the late-time reaction demonstrates a first-order decay macroscopically with respect to the mass of the limiting additive, not with respect to that of the contaminant. The late-time decay rate only depends on the intrinsic reaction rate and the solubility of the entrapped DNAPL. At the intermediate time, the additive decays exponentially with the square of time (t2), instead of time (t). Moreover, the intermediate decay rate also depends on the initial conditions, the spatial distribution of DNAPL residuals, and the effective dispersion coefficient.

Exploring synergistic benefits of Water-Food-Energy Nexus through multi-objective reservoir optimization schemes.

PubMed

Uen, Tinn-Shuan; Chang, Fi-John; Zhou, Yanlai; Tsai, Wen-Ping

2018-08-15

This study proposed a holistic three-fold scheme that synergistically optimizes the benefits of the Water-Food-Energy (WFE) Nexus by integrating the short/long-term joint operation of a multi-objective reservoir with irrigation ponds in response to urbanization. The three-fold scheme was implemented step by step: (1) optimizing short-term (daily scale) reservoir operation for maximizing hydropower output and final reservoir storage during typhoon seasons; (2) simulating long-term (ten-day scale) water shortage rates in consideration of the availability of irrigation ponds for both agricultural and public sectors during non-typhoon seasons; and (3) promoting the synergistic benefits of the WFE Nexus in a year-round perspective by integrating the short-term optimization and long-term simulation of reservoir operations. The pivotal Shihmen Reservoir and 745 irrigation ponds located in Taoyuan City of Taiwan together with the surrounding urban areas formed the study case. The results indicated that the optimal short-term reservoir operation obtained from the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) could largely increase hydropower output but just slightly affected water supply. The simulation results of the reservoir coupled with irrigation ponds indicated that such joint operation could significantly reduce agricultural and public water shortage rates by 22.2% and 23.7% in average, respectively, as compared to those of reservoir operation excluding irrigation ponds. The results of year-round short/long-term joint operation showed that water shortage rates could be reduced by 10% at most, the food production rate could be increased by up to 47%, and the hydropower benefit could increase up to 9.33 million USD per year, respectively, in a wet year. Consequently, the proposed methodology could be a viable approach to promoting the synergistic benefits of the WFE Nexus, and the results provided unique insights for stakeholders and policymakers to pursue sustainable urban development plans. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fine particulate air pollution and premature atrial contractions: The REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke study.

PubMed

O'Neal, Wesley T; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Efird, Jimmy T; Judd, Suzanne E; Howard, Virginia J; Howard, George; McClure, Leslie A

2017-05-01

Several reports have suggested that particulate matter (PM) exposure increases the risk for atrial arrhythmias. However, data from large-scale epidemiologic studies supporting this hypothesis are lacking. We examined the association of PM <2.5 μm in diameter (PM 2.5 ) concentration with premature atrial contractions (PACs) in 26,609 (mean age=65±9.4 years; 55% female; 41% black) participants from the REGARDS (REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke) study. Estimates of short- (2 weeks) and long-term (1 year) PM 2.5 exposure were computed before each participant's baseline visit using geographic information system data on the individual level at the coordinates of study participants' residences. PACs were identified from baseline electrocardiograms. A total of 2140 (8.2%) participants had evidence of PACs on the baseline electrocardiogram. Short-term PM 2.5 (per 10 μg/m 3 ) exposure was not associated with PACs (OR=1.09, 95% CI=0.98, 1.23). Increases in long-term PM 2.5 (per 10 μg/m 3 ) were associated with PACs (OR=1.40, 95% CI=1.10, 1.78). Interactions were not detected for short- and long-term PM 2.5 exposure by age, sex, or race. Long- but not short-term PM 2.5 exposure is associated with PACs. This suggests a role for long-term PM 2.5 exposure in initiating supraventricular arrhythmias that are triggered by PACs.

Environmental impact assessments of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the most hyperconcentrated laden river, Yellow River, China.

PubMed

Kong, Dongxian; Miao, Chiyuan; Wu, Jingwen; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Duan, Qingyun; Zhang, Xiaoming

2017-02-01

The Yellow River is the most hyperconcentrated sediment-laden river in the world. Throughout recorded history, the Lower Yellow River (LYR) experienced many catastrophic flood and drought events. To regulate the LYR, a reservoir was constructed at Xiaolangdi that became operational in the early 2000s. An annual water-sediment regulation scheme (WSRS) was then implemented, aimed at flood control, sediment reduction, regulated water supply, and power generation. This study examines the eco-environmental and socioenvironmental impacts of Xiaolangdi Reservoir. In retrospect, it is found that the reservoir construction phase incurred huge financial cost and required large-scale human resettlement. Subsequent reservoir operations affected the local geological environment, downstream riverbed erosion, evolution of the Yellow River delta, water quality, and aquatic biodiversity. Lessons from the impact assessment of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir are summarized as follows: (1) The construction of large reservoirs is not merely an engineering challenge but must also be viewed in terms of resource exploitation, environmental protection, and social development; (2) long-term systems for monitoring large reservoirs should be established, and decision makers involved at national policy and planning levels must be prepared to react quickly to the changing impact of large reservoirs; and (3) the key to solving sedimentation in the LYR is not Xiaolangdi Reservoir but instead soil conservation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. Proper assessment of the impacts of large reservoirs will help promote development strategies that enhance the long-term sustainability of dam projects.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns Associated with the Interannual Variability of Heatwaves in East Asia and Its Decadal Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, N.; Lee, M. I.; Lim, Y. K.; Kim, K. M.

2017-12-01

Heatwave is an extreme hot weather event which accompanies fatal damage to human health. The heatwave has a strong relationship with the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In this study, we examine the spatial pattern of heatwave in East Asia by using the EOF analysis and the relationship between heatwave frequency and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. We also separate the time scale of heatwave frequency as the time scale longer than a decade and the interannual time scale. The long-term variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a linkage with the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic with a decadal time scale (a.k.a. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). On the other hands, the interannual variation of heatwave frequency is linked with the two dominant spatial patterns associated with the large-scale teleconnection patterns mimicking the Scandinavian teleconnection (SCAND-like) pattern and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT-like) pattern, respectively. It is highlighted that the interannual variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a remarkable change after mid-1990s. While the heatwave frequency was mainly associated with the CGT-like pattern before mid-1990s, the SCAND-like pattern becomes the most dominant one after mid-1990s, making the CGT-like pattern as the second. This study implies that the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns play a key role in developing heatwave events in East Asia. This study further discusses possible mechanisms for the decadal change in the linkage between heatwave frequency and the large-scale teleconnection patterns in East Asia such as early melting of snow cover and/or weakening of East Asian jet stream due to global warming.

Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iliopoulou, Theano; Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Markonis, Yannis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2018-01-01

Long-range dependence (LRD), the so-called Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour, is considered to be an intrinsic characteristic of most natural processes. This behaviour manifests itself by the prevalence of slowly decaying autocorrelation function and questions the Markov assumption, often habitually employed in time series analysis. Herein, we investigate the dependence structure of annual rainfall using a large set, comprising more than a thousand stations worldwide of length 100 years or more, as well as a smaller number of paleoclimatic reconstructions covering the last 12,000 years. Our findings suggest weak long-term persistence for instrumental data (average H = 0.59), which becomes stronger with scale, i.e. in the paleoclimatic reconstructions (average H = 0.75).

Long-term global temperature variations under total solar irradiance, cosmic rays, and volcanic activity.

PubMed

Biktash, Lilia

2017-07-01

The effects of total solar irradiance (TSI) and volcanic activity on long-term global temperature variations during solar cycles 19-23 were studied. It was shown that a large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the mechanism of action of TSI and cosmic rays (CRs) on the state of the lower atmosphere and other meteorological parameters. The role of volcanic signals in the 11-year variations of the Earth's climate can be expressed as several years of global temperature drop. Conversely, it was shown that the effects of solar, geophysical, and human activity on climate change interact. It was concluded that more detailed investigations of these very complicated relationships are required, in order to be able to understand issues that affect ecosystems on a global scale.

Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long-term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lundquist, J.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2007-01-01

A realistic description of how temperatures vary with elevation is crucial for ecosystem studies and for models of basin-scale snowmelt and spring streamflow. This paper explores surface temperature variability using temperature data from an array of 37 sensors, called the Yosemite network, which traverses both slopes of the Sierra Nevada in the vicinity of Yosemite National Park, California. These data indicate that a simple lapse rate is often a poor description of the spatial temperature structure. Rather, the spatial pattern of temperature over the Yosemite network varies considerably with synoptic conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were used to identify the dominant spatial temperature patterns and how they vary in time. Temporal variations of these surface temperature patterns were correlated with large-scale weather conditions, as described by National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis data. Regression equations were used to downscale larger-scale weather parameters, such as Reanalysis winds and pressure, to the surface temperature structure over the Yosemite network. These relationships demonstrate that strong westerly winds are associated with relatively warmer temperatures on the east slope and cooler temperatures on the west slope of the Sierra, and weaker westerly winds are associated with the opposite pattern. Reanalysis data from 1948 to 2005 indicate weakening westerlies over this time period, a trend leading to relatively cooler temperatures on the east slope over decadal timescale's. This trend also appears in long-term observations and demonstrates the need to consider topographic effects when examining long-term changes in mountain regions. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardhanan, A.

2017-12-01

Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

OpenMP parallelization of a gridded SWAT (SWATG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Hou, Jinliang; Cao, Yongpan; Gu, Juan; Huang, Chunlin

2017-12-01

Large-scale, long-term and high spatial resolution simulation is a common issue in environmental modeling. A Gridded Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU)-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATG) that integrates grid modeling scheme with different spatial representations also presents such problems. The time-consuming problem affects applications of very high resolution large-scale watershed modeling. The OpenMP (Open Multi-Processing) parallel application interface is integrated with SWATG (called SWATGP) to accelerate grid modeling based on the HRU level. Such parallel implementation takes better advantage of the computational power of a shared memory computer system. We conducted two experiments at multiple temporal and spatial scales of hydrological modeling using SWATG and SWATGP on a high-end server. At 500-m resolution, SWATGP was found to be up to nine times faster than SWATG in modeling over a roughly 2000 km2 watershed with 1 CPU and a 15 thread configuration. The study results demonstrate that parallel models save considerable time relative to traditional sequential simulation runs. Parallel computations of environmental models are beneficial for model applications, especially at large spatial and temporal scales and at high resolutions. The proposed SWATGP model is thus a promising tool for large-scale and high-resolution water resources research and management in addition to offering data fusion and model coupling ability.

Relative phase asynchrony and long-range correlation of long-term solar magnetic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Linhua

2017-07-01

Statistical signal processing is one of the most important tasks in a large amount of areas of scientific studies, such as astrophysics, geophysics, and space physics. Phase recurrence analysis and long-range persistence are the two dynamical structures of the underlying processes for the given natural phenomenon. Linear and nonlinear time series analysis approaches (cross-correlation analysis, cross-recurrence plot, wavelet coherent transform, and Hurst analysis) are combined to investigate the relative phase interconnection and long-range correlation between solar activity and geomagnetic activity for the time interval from 1932 January to 2017 January. The following prominent results are found: (1) geomagnetic activity lags behind sunspot numbers with a phase shift of 21 months, and they have a high level of asynchronous behavior; (2) their relative phase interconnections are in phase for the periodic scales during 8-16 years, but have a mixing behavior for the periodic belts below 8 years; (3) both sunspot numbers and geomagnetic activity can not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon because their dynamical behaviors display a long-term correlation and a fractal nature. We believe that the presented conclusions could provide further information on understanding the dynamical coupling of solar dynamo process with geomagnetic activity variation, and the crucial role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the long-term climate change.

Degradation modeling of high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells using dual time scale simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, E.; Maximini, M.; Bauschulte, A.; vom Schloß, J.; Hermanns, R. T. E.

2015-02-01

HT-PEM fuel cells suffer from performance losses due to degradation effects. Therefore, the durability of HT-PEM is currently an important factor of research and development. In this paper a novel approach is presented for an integrated short term and long term simulation of HT-PEM accelerated lifetime testing. The physical phenomena of short term and long term effects are commonly modeled separately due to the different time scales. However, in accelerated lifetime testing, long term degradation effects have a crucial impact on the short term dynamics. Our approach addresses this problem by applying a novel method for dual time scale simulation. A transient system simulation is performed for an open voltage cycle test on a HT-PEM fuel cell for a physical time of 35 days. The analysis describes the system dynamics by numerical electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Furthermore, a performance assessment is performed in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the approach. The presented approach reduces the simulation time by approximately 73% compared to conventional simulation approach without losing too much accuracy. The approach promises a comprehensive perspective considering short term dynamic behavior and long term degradation effects.

Long-term agroecosystem research in the central Mississippi river basin: introduction, establishment, and overview.

PubMed

Sadler, E John; Lerch, Robert N; Kitchen, Newell R; Anderson, Stephen H; Baffaut, Claire; Sudduth, Kenneth A; Prato, Anthony A; Kremer, Robert J; Vories, Earl D; Myers, D Brent; Broz, Robert; Miles, Randall J; Young, Fred J

2015-01-01

Many challenges currently facing agriculture require long-term data on landscape-scale hydrologic responses to weather, such as from the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW), located in northeastern Missouri, USA. This watershed is prone to surface runoff despite shallow slopes, as a result of a significant smectitic clay layer 30 to 50 cm deep that restricts downward flow of water and gives rise to a periodic perched water table. This paper is the first in a series that documents the database developed from GCEW. The objectives of this paper are to (i) establish the context of long-term data and the federal infrastructure that provides it, (ii) describe the GCEW/ Central Mississippi River Basin (CMRB) establishment and the geophysical and anthropogenic context, (iii) summarize in brief the collected research results published using data from within GCEW, (iv) describe the series of papers this work introduces, and (v) identify knowledge gaps and research needs. The rationale for the collection derives from converging trends in data from long-term research, integration of multiple disciplines, and increasing public awareness of increasingly larger problems. The outcome of those trends includes being selected as the CMRB site in the USDA-ARS Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Research (LTAR) network. Research needs include quantifying watershed scale fluxes of N, P, K, sediment, and energy, accounting for fluxes involving forest, livestock, and anthropogenic sources, scaling from near-term point-scale results to increasingly long and broad scales, and considering whole-system interactions. This special section informs the scientific community about this database and provides support for its future use in research to solve natural resource problems important to US agricultural, environmental, and science policy. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Large temporal scale and capacity subsurface bulk energy storage with CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saar, M. O.; Fleming, M. R.; Adams, B. M.; Ogland-Hand, J.; Nelson, E. S.; Randolph, J.; Sioshansi, R.; Kuehn, T. H.; Buscheck, T. A.; Bielicki, J. M.

2017-12-01

Decarbonizing energy systems by increasing the penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires efficient and short- to long-term energy storage. Very large amounts of energy can be stored in the subsurface as heat and/or pressure energy in order to provide both short- and long-term (seasonal) storage, depending on the implementation. This energy storage approach can be quite efficient, especially where geothermal energy is naturally added to the system. Here, we present subsurface heat and/or pressure energy storage with supercritical carbon dioxide (CO2) and discuss the system's efficiency, deployment options, as well as its advantages and disadvantages, compared to several other energy storage options. CO2-based subsurface bulk energy storage has the potential to be particularly efficient and large-scale, both temporally (i.e., seasonal) and spatially. The latter refers to the amount of energy that can be stored underground, using CO2, at a geologically conducive location, potentially enabling storing excess power from a substantial portion of the power grid. The implication is that it would be possible to employ centralized energy storage for (a substantial part of) the power grid, where the geology enables CO2-based bulk subsurface energy storage, whereas the VRE technologies (solar, wind) are located on that same power grid, where (solar, wind) conditions are ideal. However, this may require reinforcing the power grid's transmission lines in certain parts of the grid to enable high-load power transmission from/to a few locations.

Trends in size of tropical deforestation events signal increasing dominance of industrial-scale drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, Kemen G.; González-Roglich, Mariano; Schaffer-Smith, Danica; Schwantes, Amanda M.; Swenson, Jennifer J.

2017-05-01

Deforestation continues across the tropics at alarming rates, with repercussions for ecosystem processes, carbon storage and long term sustainability. Taking advantage of recent fine-scale measurement of deforestation, this analysis aims to improve our understanding of the scale of deforestation drivers in the tropics. We examined trends in forest clearings of different sizes from 2000-2012 by country, region and development level. As tropical deforestation increased from approximately 6900 kha yr-1 in the first half of the study period, to >7900 kha yr-1 in the second half of the study period, >50% of this increase was attributable to the proliferation of medium and large clearings (>10 ha). This trend was most pronounced in Southeast Asia and in South America. Outside of Brazil >60% of the observed increase in deforestation in South America was due to an upsurge in medium- and large-scale clearings; Brazil had a divergent trend of decreasing deforestation, >90% of which was attributable to a reduction in medium and large clearings. The emerging prominence of large-scale drivers of forest loss in many regions and countries suggests the growing need for policy interventions which target industrial-scale agricultural commodity producers. The experience in Brazil suggests that there are promising policy solutions to mitigate large-scale deforestation, but that these policy initiatives do not adequately address small-scale drivers. By providing up-to-date and spatially explicit information on the scale of deforestation, and the trends in these patterns over time, this study contributes valuable information for monitoring, and designing effective interventions to address deforestation.

Design Aspects of the Rayleigh Convection Code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Featherstone, N. A.

2017-12-01

Understanding the long-term generation of planetary or stellar magnetic field requires complementary knowledge of the large-scale fluid dynamics pervading large fractions of the object's interior. Such large-scale motions are sensitive to the system's geometry which, in planets and stars, is spherical to a good approximation. As a result, computational models designed to study such systems often solve the MHD equations in spherical geometry, frequently employing a spectral approach involving spherical harmonics. We present computational and user-interface design aspects of one such modeling tool, the Rayleigh convection code, which is suitable for deployment on desktop and petascale-hpc architectures alike. In this poster, we will present an overview of this code's parallel design and its built-in diagnostics-output package. Rayleigh has been developed with NSF support through the Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics and is expected to be released as open-source software in winter 2017/2018.

Effects of long-term use by big game and livestock in the Blue Mountains forest ecosystems.

Treesearch

Larry L. Irwin; John G. Cook; Robert A. Riggs; Jon M. Skovlin

1994-01-01

The effects on eastside forest ecosystems from long-term grazing by large mammals are assessed, because long-term herbivory can reduce or increase ecosystem productivity. The assessment emphasizes elk and cattle in the Blue Mountains of northeast Oregon and southeast Washington. Histories of populations of large mammals and their effects in the Blue Mountains are...

Long-Term Outcomes in Children Diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorders in India

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mhatre, Dimpi; Bapat, Deepa; Udani, Vrajesh

2016-01-01

We investigated long-term outcomes in children with diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders based on Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS score). Information about outcomes such as speech, friendships and activities of daily living (ADLs) was collected through telephone-based interviews. Gilliam Autism Rating Scale-2 and Vineland Social Maturity…

Coordinated Approaches to Quantify Long-Term Ecosystem dynamics in Response to Global Change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change and its impact on ecosystems are usually assessed at decadal and century time scales. Ecological responses to climate change at those scales are strongly regulated by long-term processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by big trees, and nutrient r...

Long-term and acute effects of temperature and oxygen on metabolism, food intake, growth and heat tolerance in a freshwater gastropod.

PubMed

Hoefnagel, K Natan; Verberk, Wilco C E P

2017-08-01

Temperature affects the physiology and life-history of ectothermic animals, often increasing metabolic rate and decreasing body size. Oxygen limitation has been put forward as a mechanism to explain thermal responses of body size and the ability to survive stress. However the time-scales involved in growth performance and heat tolerance differ radically. In order to increase our understanding of oxygen and temperature effects on body size and heat tolerance and the time scale involved, we reared Lymnaea stagnalis under six combinations of temperature and oxygen tension from hatching up to an age of 300 days and recorded shell length during this whole period. At the end of this period, we determined scope for growth by measuring food intake rate, assimilation efficiency, respiration rate and ammonium excretion rate at two different temperatures. We also measured the snails' ability to survive heat stress (CTmax), both at normoxia and hypoxia. We found that scope for growth and long term growth performance were much more affected by interactions of chronic oxygen and temperature conditions during rearing than by acute conditions during testing. Furthermore, our study shows that individual variation in growth performance can be traced back to individual differences in rates of food and oxygen consumption. Developmental acclimation also gave rise to differences in CTmax, but these were relatively small and were only expressed when CTmax was tested under hypoxia. The large effects of rearing oxygen conditions on growth and other physiological rates compared to modest effects of test oxygen conditions on CTmax suggest that small effects of hypoxia on the short term (e.g. heat tolerance) may nevertheless have large repercussions on the long term (e.g. growth and reproduction), even in a pulmonate snail that can compensate for hypoxia to some extent by aerial respiration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From Sky to Archive: Long Term Management of Sky Survey Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darch, Peter T.; Sands, Ashley E.; Borgman, Christine; Golshan, Milena S.; Traweek, Sharon

2017-01-01

Sky survey data may remain scientifically valuable long beyond the end of a survey’s operational period, both for continuing inquiry and for calibrating and testing instruments for subsequent generations of surveys. Astronomy infrastructure has many stakeholders, including those concerned with data management. Research libraries are increasingly partnering with scholars to sustain access to data.The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) was among the first major scientific projects to partner with libraries in this way, embarking on a data transfer process with two university libraries. We report on a qualitative case study of this process.Ideally, long-term sustainability of sky survey data would be a key part of planning and construction, but rarely does this occur. Teams are under pressure to deliver a project on time and on budget that produces high-quality data during its operational period, leaving few resources available to plan long-term data management. The difficulty of planning is further compounded by the complexity of predicting circumstances and needs of the astronomy community in future decades. SDSS team members regarded libraries, long-lived institutions concerned with access to scholarship, as a potential solution to long-term data sustainability.As the SDSS data transfer was the first of this scale attempted - 160 TB of data - astronomers and library staff were faced with scoping the range of activities involved. They spent two years planning this five-year process. While successful overall as demonstration projects, the libraries encountered many obstacles. We found all parties experienced difficulty in articulating their notions of “scientific data,” “archiving,” “serving,” and “providing access” to the datasets. Activities and interpretations of the data transfer process varied by institutional motivations for participation and by available infrastructure. We conclude several, rather than a single, “library solutions” for long-term data management should be considered. Life cycle models popular in the library community are insufficient to conceptualize data management at this scale. We also identify institutional and policy challenges for curating large scientific datasets.

Influences of large- and regional-scale climate on fish recruitment in the Skagerrak-Kattegat over the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderholm, Hans W.; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bartolino, Valerio; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Svedäng, Henrik

2014-06-01

Dynamics of commercial fish stocks are generally associated with fishing pressure and climate variability. Due to short time series, past studies of the relationships between fish stock dynamics and climate have mainly been restricted to the last few decades. Here we analyzed a century-long time series of plaice, cod and haddock from the Skagerrak-Kattegat, to assess the long-term influence of climate on recruitment. Recruitment success (RS) was compared against sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation indices on large (North Atlantic) and regional (Skagerrak-Kattegat) scales. Our results show that the influence of climate on RS was more pronounced on longer, than on shorter timescales. Over the century-long period, a shift from low to high climate sensitivity was seen from the early to the late part for plaice and cod, while the opposite was found for haddock. This shift suggests that the increasing fishing pressure and the climate change in the Skagerrak-Kattegat have resulted in an increased sensitivity of RS to climate for plaice and cod. The diminishing of climate sensitivity in haddock RS, on the other hand, may be linked to the early twentieth century collapse of the stock in the region. While no long-term relationship between RS and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) could be found, large RS fluctuations during the positive phase of the AMO (1935-1960), relative to the cold phases, suggests a changed pattern in recruitment during warm periods. On the other hand, this could be due to the increased fishing pressure in the area. Thus, reported correlations between climate and fish may be caused by strong trends in climate in the late-twentieth century, and coincident reduction in fish stocks caused by intense fishing, rather than a stable relationship between climate and fish recruitment per se.

Performance measurements of a pilot superconducting solenoid model core for a wind tunnel magnetic suspension and balance system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodyer, M. J.; Britcher, C. P.

1983-01-01

The results of experimental demonstrations of a superconducting solenoid model core in the Southampton University Magnetic Suspension and Balance System are detailed. Technology and techniques relevant to large-scale wind tunnel MSBSs comprise the long term goals. The magnetic moment of solenoids, difficulties peculiar to superconducting solenoid cores, lift force and pitching moment, dynamic lift calibration, and helium boil-off measurements are discussed.

Great Lakes Research Review, 1982. Appendices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-01

Annul Report - societal impact of the Cladophora problem (p. 6) - long-term, large-scale drift and dispersal pattern; ii the Greit akes (p. 7) C...Nutrient Exchange Processes in Macrophyte Lakes 155 C 479 NWRI Cladophora in the Great Lakes 156 C 494 NWRI Lake Ontario Nutrient Assessment Study (LONAS...Ingested with Drinking Water 136 A 387 UM Cladophora Measurements using Remote Sensing 137 A 387 U.WI. Nutrition of Great Lakes Cladophora 138 A 393

Long-term lunar stations: Some ecological considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maguire, Bassett, Jr.; Scott, Kelly W.

1992-01-01

A major factor for long-term success of a lunar station is the ability to keep an agroecosystem functioning at a desirable, stable steady-state with ecological stability and reliability. Design for a long-lived extraterrestrial manned station must take into account interactions among its subsystems to insure that overall functionality is enhanced (or at least not compromised). Physical isolation of feed production, human living areas, recycling, and other systems may be straightforward, however, microbiological isolation will be very difficult. While it is possible to eliminate plant-associated microbiological communities by growing the plants asepticallly, it is not practical to keep plants germ-free on a large scale if humans are working with them. Ecological theory strongly suggests that some kinds of communities or organisms effectively increase the stability of ecosystems and will protect the plants from potential pathogens. A carefully designed and maintained (lunar-derived) soil can provide a variety of habitats for effective microbial buffers while adding structure to the agroecosystem. A soil can also increase ecosystem reliability through buffering otherwise large element and compound fluctuations (of nutrients, wastes, etc.) as well as buffering temperature level and atmosphere composition. We are doing experiments in ecological dynamics and attempting to extend the relevant theories.

Long-Term Network Experiments and Interdisciplinary Campaigns Conducted by the USDA-Agricultural Research Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodrich, D. C.; Kustas, W. P.; Cosh, M. H.; Moran, S. M.; Marks, D. G.; Jackson, T. J.; Bosch, D. D.; Rango, A.; Seyfried, M. S.; Scott, R. L.; Prueger, J. H.; Starks, P. J.; Walbridge, M. R.

2014-12-01

The USDA-Agricultural Research Service has led, or been integrally involved in, a myriad of interdisciplinary field campaigns in a wide range of locations both nationally and internationally. Many of the shorter campaigns were anchored over the existing national network of ARS Experimental Watersheds and Rangelands. These long-term outdoor laboratories provided a critical knowledge base for designing the campaigns as well as historical data, hydrologic and meteorological infrastructure coupled with shop, laboratory, and visiting scientist facilities. This strong outdoor laboratory base enabled cost-efficient campaigns informed by historical context, local knowledge, and detailed existing watershed characterization. These long-term experimental facilities have also enabled much longer term lower intensity experiments, observing and building an understanding of both seasonal and inter-annual biosphere-hydrosphere-atmosphere interactions across a wide range of conditions. A sampling of these experiments include MONSOON'90, SGP97, SGP99, Washita'92, Washita'94, SMEX02-05 and JORNEX series of experiments, SALSA, CLASIC and longer-term efforts over the ARS Little Washita, Walnut Gulch, Little River, Reynolds Creek, and OPE3 Experimental Watersheds. This presentation will review some of the highlights and key findings of these campaigns and long-term efforts including the inclusion of many of the experimental watersheds and ranges in the Long-Term Agro-ecosystems Research (LTAR) network. The LTAR network also contains several locations that are also part of other observational networks including the CZO, LTER, and NEON networks. Lessons learned will also be provided for scientists initiating their participation in large-scale, multi-site interdisciplinary science.

The atmospheric implications of radiation belt remediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodger, C. J.; Clilverd, M. A.; Ulich, Th.; Verronen, P. T.; Turunen, E.; Thomson, N. R.

2006-08-01

High altitude nuclear explosions (HANEs) and geomagnetic storms can produce large scale injections of relativistic particles into the inner radiation belts. It is recognised that these large increases in >1 MeV trapped electron fluxes can shorten the operational lifetime of low Earth orbiting satellites, threatening a large, valuable population. Therefore, studies are being undertaken to bring about practical human control of the radiation belts, termed "Radiation Belt Remediation" (RBR). Here we consider the upper atmospheric consequences of an RBR system operating over either 1 or 10 days. The RBR-forced neutral chemistry changes, leading to NOx enhancements and Ox depletions, are significant during the timescale of the precipitation but are generally not long-lasting. The magnitudes, time-scales, and altitudes of these changes are no more significant than those observed during large solar proton events. In contrast, RBR-operation will lead to unusually intense HF blackouts for about the first half of the operation time, producing large scale disruptions to radio communication and navigation systems. While the neutral atmosphere changes are not particularly important, HF disruptions could be an important area for policy makers to consider, particularly for the remediation of natural injections.

A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time scales and are mostly associated with variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific. The catalogue can be used for analysis of extreme events, risk assessment, and as a benchmark for model evaluation.

Transcriptomic configuration of mouse brain induced by adolescent exposure to 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eun, Jung Woo; Kwack, Seung Jun; Noh, Ji Heon

The amphetamine derivative ({+-})-3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or ecstasy) is a synthetic amphetamine analogue used recreationally to obtain an enhanced affiliative emotional response. MDMA is a potent monoaminergic neurotoxin with the potential to damage brain serotonin and/or dopamine neurons. As the majority of MDMA users are young adults, the risk that users may expose the fetus to MDMA is a concern. However, the majority of studies on MDMA have investigated the effects on adult animals. Here, we investigated whether long-term exposure to MDMA, especially in adolescence, could induce comprehensive transcriptional changes in mouse brain. Transcriptomic analysis of mouse brain regions demonstrated significantmore » gene expression changes in the cerebral cortex. Supervised analysis identified 1028 genes that were chronically dysregulated by long-term exposure to MDMA in adolescent mice. Functional categories most represented by this MDMA characteristic signature are intracellular molecular signaling pathways of neurotoxicity, such as, the MAPK signaling pathway, the Wnt signaling pathway, neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, long-term potentiation, and the long-term depression signaling pathway. Although these resultant large-scale molecular changes remain to be studied associated with functional brain damage caused by MDMA, our observations delineate the possible neurotoxic effects of MDMA on brain function, and have therapeutic implications concerning neuro-pathological conditions associated with MDMA abuse.« less

The prediction of the level of personality organization on reduction of psychiatric symptoms and improvement of work ability in short- versus long-term psychotherapies during a 5-year follow-up.

PubMed

Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi; Keinänen, Matti; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa; Härkänen, Tommi

2017-09-01

How level of personality organization (LPO) predicts psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- versus long-term psychotherapies is poorly known. We investigated the importance of the LPO on the benefits of short-term versus long-term psychotherapies. A cohort study based on 326 outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder was allocated to long-term (LPP) and short-term (SPP) psychodynamic psychotherapy, and solution-focused therapy (SFT). The LPO was assessed by interview at baseline and categorized into neuroses and higher level borderline. Outcome was assessed at baseline and 4-9 times during a 5-year follow-up, using self-report and interview-based measures of symptoms and work ability. For patients receiving SPP, improvement in work ability, symptom reduction, and the remission rate were more considerable in patients with neuroses than in higher level borderline patients, whereas LPP or SFT showed no notable differences in effectiveness in the two LPO groups. In patients with neuroses, improvement was more considerable in the short-term therapy groups during the first year of follow-up, and in higher level borderline patients LPP was more effective after 3 years of follow-up. The remission rate, defined as both symptom reduction and lack of auxiliary treatment, was higher in LPP than in SPP for both the LPO groups considered. In neuroses, short-term psychotherapy was associated with a more rapid reduction of symptoms and increase in work ability, whereas LPP was more effective for longer follow-ups in both LPO groups. Further large-scale studies are needed. Level of personality organization is relevant for selection between short- and long-term psychotherapies. Short-term therapy gives faster benefits for neurotic patients but not for patients with higher level borderline personality organization. Sustained remission from symptoms is more probable after long-term than short-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Refrigeration Playbook. Heat Reclaim; Optimizing Heat Rejection and Refrigeration Heat Reclaim for Supermarket Energy Conservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reis, Chuck; Nelson, Eric; Armer, James

The purpose of this playbook and accompanying spreadsheets is to generalize the detailed CBP analysis and to put tools in the hands of experienced refrigeration designers to evaluate multiple applications of refrigeration waste heat reclaim across the United States. Supermarkets with large portfolios of similar buildings can use these tools to assess the impact of large-scale implementation of heat reclaim systems. In addition, the playbook provides best practices for implementing heat reclaim systems to achieve the best long-term performance possible. It includes guidance on operations and maintenance as well as measurement and verification.

Modulation of Small-scale Turbulence Structure by Large-scale Motions in the Absence of Direct Energy Transfer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, James G.; Juneja, Anurag

1996-11-01

Previous DNS studies indicate that small-scale structure can be directly altered through ``distant'' dynamical interactions by energetic forcing of the large scales. To remove the possibility of stimulating energy transfer between the large- and small-scale motions in these long-range interactions, we here perturb the large scale structure without altering its energy content by suddenly altering only the phases of large-scale Fourier modes. Scale-dependent changes in turbulence structure appear as a non zero difference field between two simulations from identical initial conditions of isotropic decaying turbulence, one perturbed and one unperturbed. We find that the large-scale phase perturbations leave the evolution of the energy spectrum virtually unchanged relative to the unperturbed turbulence. The difference field, on the other hand, is strongly affected by the perturbation. Most importantly, the time scale τ characterizing the change in in turbulence structure at spatial scale r shortly after initiating a change in large-scale structure decreases with decreasing turbulence scale r. Thus, structural information is transferred directly from the large- to the smallest-scale motions in the absence of direct energy transfer---a long-range effect which cannot be explained by a linear mechanism such as rapid distortion theory. * Supported by ARO grant DAAL03-92-G-0117

A large-scale, long-term study of scale drift: The micro view and the macro view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, W.; Li, S.; Kingsbury, G. G.

2016-11-01

The development of measurement scales for use across years and grades in educational settings provides unique challenges, as instructional approaches, instructional materials, and content standards all change periodically. This study examined the measurement stability of a set of Rasch measurement scales that have been in place for almost 40 years. In order to investigate the stability of these scales, item responses were collected from a large set of students who took operational adaptive tests using items calibrated to the measurement scales. For the four scales that were examined, item samples ranged from 2183 to 7923 items. Each item was administered to at least 500 students in each grade level, resulting in approximately 3000 responses per item. Stability was examined at the micro level analysing change in item parameter estimates that have occurred since the items were first calibrated. It was also examined at the macro level, involving groups of items and overall test scores for students. Results indicated that individual items had changes in their parameter estimates, which require further analysis and possible recalibration. At the same time, the results at the total score level indicate substantial stability in the measurement scales over the span of their use.

'It will get even better': preliminary findings from a trauma-focused psychotherapy effectiveness study reveal false positive patients' long-term outcome expectations after the treatment.

PubMed

Kazlauskas, Evaldas; Jovarauskaite, Lina; Mazulyte, Egle; Skruibis, Paulius; Dovydaitiene, Migle; Eimontas, Jonas; Zelviene, Paulina

2017-05-01

There is considerable evidence that outcome expectations may predict psychotherapy outcomes. However, little is known about the long-term outcome expectations following the end of the treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate patients' long-term outcome expectations after trauma-focused post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) psychotherapy in a single group effectiveness study. Twenty participants with various traumatic experiences who completed the Brief Eclectic Psychotherapy for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (BEPP) and all the assessments were included into the study. Self-report measures were used to evaluate the therapeutic outcomes: Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation-Outcome Measure (CORE-OM) at pre-treatment, post-treatment, and 6-month follow-up. Subjective Units of Distress Scale was used to measure long-term outcome expectations at post-treatment, asking participants to measure the expected distress in 6 months following the treatment. Assessments at 6-month follow-up were used to estimate the accuracy of patients' expectations of their distress at previous post-treatment assessment. Significant decline of PTSD symptoms at post-treatment with large effect sizes was observed. At post-treatment assessment participants expected significant improvement of their condition in 6 months after the treatment. However, therapeutic effects remained stable at the 6-month follow-up. It is concluded that the PTSD patients, even after successful trauma-focused treatment, tend to expect further significant positive changes. However, therapeutic effects were stable half a year after the psychotherapy, and patients tend to have false expectations about further improvement of their condition.

The Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Research (LTAR) Network: A New In-Situ Data Network For Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walbridge, M. R.

2014-12-01

Agriculture in the 21st Century faces significant challenges due to increases in the demand for agricultural products from a global population expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, changes in land use that are reducing the area of arable land worldwide, and the uncertainties associated with increasing climate variability and change. There is broad agreement that meeting these challenges will require significant changes in agro-ecosystem management at the landscape scale. In 2012, the USDA/ARS announced the reorganization of 10 existing benchmark watersheds, experimental ranges, and research farms into a Long-Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) network. Earlier this year, the LTAR network expanded to 18 sites, including 3 led by land grant universities and/or private foundations. The central question addressed by the LTAR network is, "How do we sustain or enhance productivity, profitability, and ecosystem services in agro-ecosystems and agricultural landscapes"? All 18 LTAR sites possess rich historical databases that extend up to 100 years into the past. However as LTAR moves forward, the focus is on collecting a core set of common measurements over the next 30-50 years that can be used to draw inferences regarding the nature of agricultural sustainability and how it varies across regional and continental-scale gradients. As such, LTAR is part long-term research network and part observatory network. Rather than focusing on a single site, each LTAR has developed regional partnerships that allow it to address agro-ecosystem function in the large basins and eco-climatic zones that underpin regional food production systems. Partners include other long-term in-situ data networks (e.g., Ameriflux, CZO, GRACEnet, LTER, NEON). 'Next steps' include designing and implementing a cross-site experiment addressing LTAR's central question.

Long-term variability and environmental preferences of calycophoran siphonophores in the Bay of Villefranche (north-western Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licandro, P.; Souissi, S.; Ibanez, F.; Carré, C.

2012-05-01

Long-term variability of the main calycophoran siphonophores was investigated between 1974 and 1999 in a coastal station in the north-western Mediterranean. The data were collected at weekly frequency using a macroplankton net (680 μm mesh size) adapted to quantitatively sample delicate gelatinous plankton. A 3-year collection (1967-1969) of siphonophores from offshore waters using the same methodology showed that the patterns of variability observed inshore were representative of siphonophores’ changes at a regional scale. The aims of the study were: (i) to investigate the patterns of variability that characterised the dominant calycophoran species and assemblages; (ii) to identify the environmental optima that were associated with a significant increase in the dominant siphonophore species and (iii) to verify the influence of hydroclimatic variability on long-term changes of siphonophores. Our results showed that during nearly 3 decades the standing stock of calycophoran siphonophores did not show any significant change, with the annual maximum usually recorded in spring as a result of high densities of the dominant species Lensia subtilis, Muggiaea kochi and Muggiaea atlantica. Nevertheless, major changes in community composition occurred within the calycophoran population. Since the middle 1980s, M. kochi, once the most dominant species, started to decrease allowing other species, the congeneric M. atlantica and Chelophyes appendiculata, to increasingly dominate in spring and summer-autumn, respectively. The comparison of environmental and biotic long-term trends suggests that the decrease of M. kochi was triggered by hydrological changes that occurred in the north-western Mediterranean under the forcing of large-scale climate oscillations. Salinity, water stratification and water temperature were the main hydroclimatic factors associated with a significant increase of siphonophores, different species showing different environmental preferences.

Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-04-01

The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.

Long-term energy and climate implications of carbon capture and storage deployment strategies in the US coal-fired electricity fleet.

PubMed

Sathre, Roger; Masanet, Eric

2012-09-04

To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.

The prospect of modern thermomechanics in structural integrity calculations of large-scale pressure vessels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fekete, Tamás

2018-05-01

Structural integrity calculations play a crucial role in designing large-scale pressure vessels. Used in the electric power generation industry, these kinds of vessels undergo extensive safety analyses and certification procedures before deemed feasible for future long-term operation. The calculations are nowadays directed and supported by international standards and guides based on state-of-the-art results of applied research and technical development. However, their ability to predict a vessel's behavior under accidental circumstances after long-term operation is largely limited by the strong dependence of the analysis methodology on empirical models that are correlated to the behavior of structural materials and their changes during material aging. Recently a new scientific engineering paradigm, structural integrity has been developing that is essentially a synergistic collaboration between a number of scientific and engineering disciplines, modeling, experiments and numerics. Although the application of the structural integrity paradigm highly contributed to improving the accuracy of safety evaluations of large-scale pressure vessels, the predictive power of the analysis methodology has not yet improved significantly. This is due to the fact that already existing structural integrity calculation methodologies are based on the widespread and commonly accepted 'traditional' engineering thermal stress approach, which is essentially based on the weakly coupled model of thermomechanics and fracture mechanics. Recently, a research has been initiated in MTA EK with the aim to review and evaluate current methodologies and models applied in structural integrity calculations, including their scope of validity. The research intends to come to a better understanding of the physical problems that are inherently present in the pool of structural integrity problems of reactor pressure vessels, and to ultimately find a theoretical framework that could serve as a well-grounded theoretical foundation for a new modeling framework of structural integrity. This paper presents the first findings of the research project.

Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohnaka, Mitiyasu

2004-08-01

A thorough discussion is made on what the rational constitutive law for earthquake ruptures ought to be from the standpoint of the physics of rock friction and fracture on the basis of solid facts observed in the laboratory. From this standpoint, it is concluded that the constitutive law should be a slip-dependent law with parameters that may depend on slip rate or time. With the long-term goal of establishing a rational methodology of forecasting large earthquakes, the entire process of one cycle for a typical, large earthquake is modeled, and a comprehensive scenario that unifies individual models for intermediate-and short-term (immediate) forecasts is presented within the framework based on the slip-dependent constitutive law and the earthquake cycle model. The earthquake cycle includes the phase of accumulation of elastic strain energy with tectonic loading (phase II), and the phase of rupture nucleation at the critical stage where an adequate amount of the elastic strain energy has been stored (phase III). Phase II plays a critical role in physical modeling of intermediate-term forecasting, and phase III in physical modeling of short-term (immediate) forecasting. The seismogenic layer and individual faults therein are inhomogeneous, and some of the physical quantities inherent in earthquake ruptures exhibit scale-dependence. It is therefore critically important to incorporate the properties of inhomogeneity and physical scaling, in order to construct realistic, unified scenarios with predictive capability. The scenario presented may be significant and useful as a necessary first step for establishing the methodology for forecasting large earthquakes.

As-prepared MoS2 quantum dot as a facile fluorescent probe for long-term tracing of live cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Kai; Zhang, Yue; Xia, Zhining; Wei, Weili

2016-07-01

Recently, the newly emerged two-dimensional nanomaterials, layered transition metal dichalcogenide (e.g. MoS2) nanosheets, have drawn tremendous attentions due to their extraordinary electronic and optical properties, and MoS2 quantum dots (MoS2 QDs) with lateral sizes less than 10 nm have been found to be highly luminescent. In the present study, a facile approach for large-scale preparation of MoS2 QDs by Na intercalation reaction without using any toxic organic reagents is proposed. MoS2 QDs were carefully characterized by various techniques including transmission electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, dynamic light scattering, spectroscopy, in vitro cytotoxicology, and capillary electrophoresis. The as-prepared MoS2 QDs were strongly fluorescent, highly photo-stable, low in cytotoxicity, and readily reactive to thiols. These inherent properties of MoS2 QDs make them excellent fluorescent probes for long-term live cell tracing. The results of live cells imaging indicated that MoS2 QD stained cells remained highly fluorescent after long-term culture, and could be easily traced from other co-cultured cell lines.

On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

1999-01-01

Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

Long-term predictions using natural analogues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ewing, R.C.

1995-09-01

One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., {open_quotes}natural analogues{close_quotes}) provide perhaps the only means of partial {open_quotes}validation,{close_quotes} as well as data that may be used directlymore » in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10{sup 3}-10{sup 8} years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the {open_quotes}validation{close_quotes} of performance assessments.« less

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

PubMed Central

Kanamori, H

1996-01-01

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding. Images Fig. 8 PMID:11607657

Towards Personal Exposures: How Technology Is Changing Air Pollution and Health Research.

PubMed

Larkin, A; Hystad, P

2017-12-01

We present a review of emerging technologies and how these can transform personal air pollution exposure assessment and subsequent health research. Estimating personal air pollution exposures is currently split broadly into methods for modeling exposures for large populations versus measuring exposures for small populations. Air pollution sensors, smartphones, and air pollution models capitalizing on big/new data sources offer tremendous opportunity for unifying these approaches and improving long-term personal exposure prediction at scales needed for population-based research. A multi-disciplinary approach is needed to combine these technologies to not only estimate personal exposures for epidemiological research but also determine drivers of these exposures and new prevention opportunities. While available technologies can revolutionize air pollution exposure research, ethical, privacy, logistical, and data science challenges must be met before widespread implementations occur. Available technologies and related advances in data science can improve long-term personal air pollution exposure estimates at scales needed for population-based research. This will advance our ability to evaluate the impacts of air pollution on human health and develop effective prevention strategies.

Thirty Years of Cloud Cover Patterns from Satellite Data: Fog in California's Central Valley and Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waller, E.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2012-12-01

In an effort to assess long term trends in winter fog in the Central Valley of California, custom maps of daily cloud cover from an approximately 30 year record of AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2012) satellite data were generated. Spatial rules were then used to differentiate between fog and general cloud cover. Differences among the sensors (e.g., spectral content, spatial resolution, overpass time) presented problems of consistency, but concurrent climate station data were used to resolve systematic differences in products, and to confirm long term trends. The frequency and extent of Central Valley ("Tule") fog appear to have some periodic oscillation, but also appear to be on the decline, especially in the Sacramento Valley and in the "shoulder" months of November and February. These results may have strong implications for growers of fruit and nut trees in the Central Valley dependent on winter chill hours that are augmented by the foggy daytime conditions. Conclusions about long term trends in fog are limited to daytime patterns, as results are primarily derived from reflectance-based products. Similar analyses of daytime cloud cover are performed on other areas of concern, such as the coastal fog belt of California. Large area and long term patterns here appear to have periodic oscillation similar to that for the Central Valley. However, the relatively coarse spatial resolution of the AVHRR LTDR (Long Term Data Record) data (~5-km) may be limiting for fine-scale analysis of trends.

Time is an affliction: Why ecology cannot be as predictive as physics and why it needs time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boero, F.; Kraberg, A. C.; Krause, G.; Wiltshire, K. H.

2015-07-01

Ecological systems depend on both constraints and historical contingencies, both of which shape their present observable system state. In contrast to ahistorical systems, which are governed solely by constraints (i.e. laws), historical systems and their dynamics can be understood only if properly described, in the course of time. Describing these dynamics and understanding long-term variability can be seen as the mission of long time series measuring not only simple abiotic features but also complex biological variables, such as species diversity and abundances, allowing deep insights in the functioning of food webs and ecosystems in general. Long time-series are irreplaceable for understanding change, and crucially inherent system variability and thus envisaging future scenarios. This notwithstanding current policies in funding and evaluating scientific research discourage the maintenance of long term series, despite a clear need for long-term strategies to cope with climate change. Time series are crucial for a pursuit of the much invoked Ecosystem Approach and to the passage from simple monitoring programs of large-scale and long-term Earth observatories - thus promoting a better understanding of the causes and effects of change in ecosystems. The few ongoing long time series in European waters must be integrated and networked so as to facilitate the formation of nodes of a series of observatories which, together, should allow the long-term management of the features and characteristics of European waters. Human capacity building in this region of expertise and a stronger societal involvement are also urgently needed, since the expertise in recognizing and describing species and therefore recording them reliably in the context of time series is rapidly vanishing from the European Scientific community.

Long-term accumulation and transport of anthropogenic phosphorus in world river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powers, S. M.

2015-12-01

Global food production crucially depends on phosphorus (P). In agricultural and urban landscapes, much P is anthropogenic, entering via trade, and then can be transported by a combination of fluvial and human processes. To date there have been few long-term, large-scale analyses combining both fluvial and human modes of P transport. Here we present reconstructed historical records of anthropogenic P entering and leaving soils and aquatic systems via a combination of trade, infrastructure, food waste, and fluvial fluxes. We then report the net annual P inputs, and the mass of P that has accumulated over the long-term, for entire river basins. Our analyses reveal rapid historical P accumulation for two mixed agricultural-urban landscapes (Thames Basin, UK, Yangtze Basin, China), and one rural agricultural landscape (Maumee Basin, USA). We also show that the human P fluxes massively dominate over the fluvial fluxes in these large basins. For Thames and Maumee Basins, recently there has been modest P depletion/drawdown of the massive P pool accumulated in prior decades, whereas the Yangtze Basin has consistently and rapidly accumulated P since 1980. These first estimates of the magnitude of historical P accumulation in contrasting settings illustrate the scope of management challenges surrounding the storage, fate, exploitation, and reactivation of legacy P that is currently present in the Earth's critical zone.

Herbivorous fishes, ecosystem function and mobile links on coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welsh, J. Q.; Bellwood, D. R.

2014-06-01

Understanding large-scale movement of ecologically important taxa is key to both species and ecosystem management. Those species responsible for maintaining functional connectivity between habitats are often called mobile links and are regarded as essential elements of resilience. By providing connectivity, they support resilience across spatial scales. Most marine organisms, including fishes, have long-term, biogeographic-scale connectivity through larval movement. Although most reef species are highly site attached after larval settlement, some taxa may also be able to provide rapid, reef-scale connectivity as adults. On coral reefs, the identity of such taxa and the extent of their mobility are not yet known. We use acoustic telemetry to monitor the movements of Kyphosus vaigiensis, one of the few reef fishes that feeds on adult brown macroalgae. Unlike other benthic herbivorous fish species, it also exhibits large-scale (>2 km) movements. Individual K. vaigiensis cover, on average, a 2.5 km length of reef (11 km maximum) each day. These large-scale movements suggest that this species may act as a mobile link, providing functional connectivity, should the need arise, and helping to support functional processes across habitats and spatial scales. An analysis of published studies of home ranges in reef fishes found a consistent relationship between home range size and body length. K. vaigiensis is the sole herbivore to depart significantly from the expected home range-body size relationship, with home range sizes more comparable to exceptionally mobile large pelagic predators rather than other reef herbivores. While the large-scale movements of K. vaigiensis reveal its potential capacity to enhance resilience over large areas, it also emphasizes the potential limitations of small marine reserves to protect some herbivore populations.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Thomas; Olson, K.A.; Dressler, G.; Leimgruber, Peter; Fuller, Todd K.; Nicholson, Craig; Novaro, A.J.; Bolgeri, M.J.; Wattles, David W.; DeStefano, Stephen; Calabrese, J.M.; Fagan, William F.

2011-01-01

Aim  To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species.Locations  Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia.Methods  We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity.Results  Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape.Main conclusions  We show how broad-scale landscape unpredictability may lead to nomadism, an understudied type of long-distance movement. In contrast to classical migration where landscapes may vary at broad scales but in a predictable manner, long-distance movements of nomadic individuals are uncoordinated and independent from other such individuals. Landscapes with little broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity feature smaller-scale movements and allow for range residency. Nomadism requires distinct integrative conservation strategies that facilitate long-distance movements across the entire landscape and are not limited to certain migration corridors.

How landscape dynamics link individual- to population-level movement patterns: A multispecies comparison of ungulate relocation data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, T.; Olson, K.A.; Dressler, G.; Leimgruber, P.; Fuller, T.K.; Nicolson, C.; Novaro, A.J.; Bolgeri, M.J.; Wattles, David W.; DeStefano, S.; Calabrese, J.M.; Fagan, W.F.

2011-01-01

Aim To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species. Locations Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia. Methods We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity. Results Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape. Main conclusions We show how broad-scale landscape unpredictability may lead to nomadism, an understudied type of long-distance movement. In contrast to classical migration where landscapes may vary at broad scales but in a predictable manner, long-distance movements of nomadic individuals are uncoordinated and independent from other such individuals. Landscapes with little broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity feature smaller-scale movements and allow for range residency. Nomadism requires distinct integrative conservation strategies that facilitate long-distance movements across the entire landscape and are not limited to certain migration corridors. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Approaches for advancing scientific understanding of macrosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levy, Ofir; Ball, Becky A.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cheruvelil, Kendra S.; Finley, Andrew O.; Lottig, Noah R.; Surangi W. Punyasena,; Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhou, Jizhong; Buckley, Lauren B.; Filstrup, Christopher T.; Keitt, Tim H.; Kellner, James R.; Knapp, Alan K.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Tcheng, David; Toomey, Michael; Vargas, Rodrigo; Voordeckers, James W.; Wagner, Tyler; Williams, John W.

2014-01-01

The emergence of macrosystems ecology (MSE), which focuses on regional- to continental-scale ecological patterns and processes, builds upon a history of long-term and broad-scale studies in ecology. Scientists face the difficulty of integrating the many elements that make up macrosystems, which consist of hierarchical processes at interacting spatial and temporal scales. Researchers must also identify the most relevant scales and variables to be considered, the required data resources, and the appropriate study design to provide the proper inferences. The large volumes of multi-thematic data often associated with macrosystem studies typically require validation, standardization, and assimilation. Finally, analytical approaches need to describe how cross-scale and hierarchical dynamics and interactions relate to macroscale phenomena. Here, we elaborate on some key methodological challenges of MSE research and discuss existing and novel approaches to meet them.

Development of the Long-Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) Network: Current status and future trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term research conducted at multiple scales is critical to assessing the effects of key long term drivers (e.g., global population growth; land-use change; increased competition for natural resources; climate variability and change) on our ability to sustain or enhance agricultural production to...

Generation Expansion Planning With Large Amounts of Wind Power via Decision-Dependent Stochastic Programming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhan, Yiduo; Zheng, Qipeng P.; Wang, Jianhui

Power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully, given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time. Many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, most previous works assume predetermined future uncertainties (i.e., fixed random outcomes with given probabilities). In several recent studies of generation assets' planning (e.g., thermal versus renewable), new findings show that the investment decisions could affect the future uncertainties as well. To this end, this paper proposes a multistage decision-dependent stochastic optimization model for long-term large-scale generation expansion planning, where large amounts of windmore » power are involved. In the decision-dependent model, the future uncertainties are not only affecting but also affected by the current decisions. In particular, the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables. To deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model, a quasi-exact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to a mixed-integer linear programming model. The wind penetration, investment decisions, and the optimality of the decision-dependent model are evaluated in a series of multistage case studies. The results show that the proposed decision-dependent model provides effective optimization solutions for long-term generation expansion planning.« less

Long-term erosion of plasma-facing materials with different surface roughness in ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakola, A.; Karhunen, J.; Koivuranta, S.; Likonen, J.; Balden, M.; Herrmann, A.; Mayer, M.; Müller, H. W.; Neu, R.; Rohde, V.; Sugiyama, K.; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2014-04-01

The effect of surface roughness on the long-term erosion patterns of tungsten coatings was investigated in the outer strike-point region of ASDEX Upgrade during its 2010-11 plasma operations. The net erosion rates of rough coatings (Ra = 5-6 μm) were three to seven times smaller than those of smooth coatings (Ra = 0.4-0.8 μm). This is because rough surfaces are largely modified and damaged in the microscopic scale but the material is re-deposited together with boron, deuterium and carbon on the shadowed sides of the most prominent surface features. In addition, we observed that W coatings were eroded on average at a rate of 0.03 nm s-1, which was three to four times smaller than the value for Cr, simulating here steel.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qin, Hong; Liu, Jian; Xiao, Jianyuan

Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation is the most important numerical tool in plasma physics. However, its long-term accuracy has not been established. To overcome this difficulty, we developed a canonical symplectic PIC method for the Vlasov-Maxwell system by discretising its canonical Poisson bracket. A fast local algorithm to solve the symplectic implicit time advance is discovered without root searching or global matrix inversion, enabling applications of the proposed method to very large-scale plasma simulations with many, e.g. 10(9), degrees of freedom. The long-term accuracy and fidelity of the algorithm enables us to numerically confirm Mouhot and Villani's theory and conjecture on nonlinearmore » Landau damping over several orders of magnitude using the PIC method, and to calculate the nonlinear evolution of the reflectivity during the mode conversion process from extraordinary waves to Bernstein waves.« less

Anomalous Fluctuations in Autoregressive Models with Long-Term Memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Honjo, Haruo

2015-10-01

An autoregressive model with a power-law type memory kernel is studied as a stochastic process that exhibits a self-affine-fractal-like behavior for a small time scale. We find numerically that the root-mean-square displacement Δ(m) for the time interval m increases with a power law as mα with α < 1/2 for small m but saturates at sufficiently large m. The exponent α changes with the power exponent of the memory kernel.

Grief support in accident and emergency nursing: a literature review 1985-1993.

PubMed

McDonald, L; Butterworth, T; Yates, D W

1995-07-01

On completing a wide ranging review of literature related to Accident and Emergency (A & E) nursing, the authors chose to focus upon grief support. The literature ranges from personal experiences to large scale research. A table of studies is included to clarify major research findings in this area. The article concludes by recommending long term support for bereaved relatives and research to demonstrate the value of support for relatives in the community.

Experience in Organization of Urgent Medical Care in Large-Scale Accident Conditions at Nuclear Power Stations

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-05-01

approximately 340 Gwt) which is 17% of the worldwide electricity production level. The Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster with its long-term medico-biological...population to avoid or minimize the risk of their exposure. In October 1986, after the Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster the Federal Center of Radiation...period of their cooperation the Urgent Medical Care Department and the Rapid Response Teams visited the following sites of accidents: "* Chernobyl (a fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Biodiesel, a renewable fuel produced from animal fats or vegetable oils, is popular among many vehicle owners and fleet managers seeking to reduce emissions and support U.S. energy security. Questions sometimes arise about the viability of fueling vehicles with straight vegetable oil (SVO), or waste oils from cooking and other processes, without intermediate processing. But SVO and waste oils differ from biodiesel (and conventional diesel) in some important ways and are generally not considered acceptable vehicle fuels for large-scale or long-term use.

Enabling Long-Term Oceanographic Research: Changing Data Practices, Information Management Strategies and Informatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, K. S.; Chandler, C. L.

2008-12-01

Data management and informatics research are in a state of change in terms of data practices, information strategies, and roles. New ways of thinking about data and data management can facilitate interdisciplinary global ocean science. To meet contemporary expectations for local data use and reuse by a variety of audiences, collaborative strategies involving diverse teams of information professionals are developing. Such changes are fostering the growth of information infrastructures that support multi-scale sampling, data integration, and nascent networks of data repositories. In this retrospective, two examples of oceanographic projects incorporating data management in partnership with long-term science programs are reviewed: the Palmer Station Long-Term Ecological Research program (Palmer LTER) and the United States Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (US JGOFS). Lessons learned - short-term and long-term - from a decade of data management within these two communities will be presented. A conceptual framework called Ocean Informatics provides one example for managing the complexities inherent to sharing oceanographic data. Elements are discussed that address the economies-of-scale as well as the complexities-of-scale pertinent to a broad vision of information management and scientific research.

Spatiotemporal variability of snow depth across the Eurasian continent from 1966 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Xinyue; Zhang, Tingjun; Kang, Shichang; Wang, Kang; Zheng, Lei; Hu, Yuantao; Wang, Huijuan

2018-01-01

Snow depth is one of the key physical parameters for understanding land surface energy balance, soil thermal regime, water cycle, and assessing water resources from local community to regional industrial water supply. Previous studies by using in situ data are mostly site specific; data from satellite remote sensing may cover a large area or global scale, but uncertainties remain large. The primary objective of this study is to investigate spatial variability and temporal change in snow depth across the Eurasian continent. Data used include long-term (1966-2012) ground-based measurements from 1814 stations. Spatially, long-term (1971-2000) mean annual snow depths of >20 cm were recorded in northeastern European Russia, the Yenisei River basin, Kamchatka Peninsula, and Sakhalin. Annual mean and maximum snow depth increased by 0.2 and 0.6 cm decade-1 from 1966 through 2012. Seasonally, monthly mean snow depth decreased in autumn and increased in winter and spring over the study period. Regionally, snow depth significantly increased in areas north of 50° N. Compared with air temperature, snowfall had greater influence on snow depth during November through March across the former Soviet Union. This study provides a baseline for snow depth climatology and changes across the Eurasian continent, which would significantly help to better understanding climate system and climate changes on regional, hemispheric, or even global scales.

Constraining Centennial-Scale Ecosystem-Climate Interactions with a Pre-colonial Forest Reconstruction across the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, J. H.; Dietze, M.; Fox, A. M.; Goring, S. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Poulter, B.; Quaife, T. L.; Schaefer, K. M.; Steinkamp, J.; Williams, J. W.

2014-12-01

Interactions between ecological systems and the atmosphere are the result of dynamic processes with system memories that persist from seconds to centuries. Adequately capturing long-term biosphere-atmosphere exchange within earth system models (ESMs) requires an accurate representation of changes in plant functional types (PFTs) through time and space, particularly at timescales associated with ecological succession. However, most model parameterization and development has occurred using datasets than span less than a decade. We tested the ability of ESMs to capture the ecological dynamics observed in paleoecological and historical data spanning the last millennium. Focusing on an area from the Upper Midwest to New England, we examined differences in the magnitude and spatial pattern of PFT distributions and ecotones between historic datasets and the CMIP5 inter-comparison project's large-scale ESMs. We then conducted a 1000-year model inter-comparison using six state-of-the-art biosphere models at sites that bridged regional temperature and precipitation gradients. The distribution of ecosystem characteristics in modeled climate space reveals widely disparate relationships between modeled climate and vegetation that led to large differences in long-term biosphere-atmosphere fluxes for this region. Model simulations revealed that both the interaction between climate and vegetation and the representation of ecosystem dynamics within models were important controls on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

Cheetahs and wild dogs show contrasting patterns of suppression by lions.

PubMed

Swanson, Alexandra; Caro, Tim; Davies-Mostert, Harriet; Mills, Michael G L; Macdonald, David W; Borner, Markus; Masenga, Emmanuel; Packer, Craig

2014-11-01

Top predators can dramatically suppress populations of smaller predators, with cascading effects throughout communities, and this pressure is often unquestioningly accepted as a constraint on mesopredator populations. In this study, we reassess whether African lions suppress populations of cheetahs and African wild dogs and examine possible mechanisms for coexistence between these species. Using long-term records from Serengeti National Park, we tested 30 years of population data for evidence of mesopredator suppression, and we examined six years of concurrent radio-telemetry data for evidence of large-scale spatial displacement. The Serengeti lion population nearly tripled between 1966 and 1998; during this time, wild dogs declined but cheetah numbers remained largely unchanged. Prior to their local extinction, wild dogs primarily occupied low lion density areas and apparently abandoned the long-term study area as the lion population 'saturated' the region. In contrast, cheetahs mostly utilized areas of high lion density, and the stability of the cheetah population indicates that neither high levels of lion-inflicted mortality nor behavioural avoidance inflict sufficient demographic consequences to translate into population-level effects. Population data from fenced reserves in southern Africa revealed a similar contrast between wild dogs and cheetahs in their ability to coexist with lions. These findings demonstrate differential responses of subordinate species within the same guild and challenge a widespread perception that lions undermine cheetah conservation efforts. Paired with several recent studies that document fine-scale lion-avoidance by cheetahs, this study further highlights fine-scale spatial avoidance as a possible mechanism for mitigating mesopredator suppression. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

A Comprehensive Precipitation Data Set for Global Land Areas (TR-051)

DOE Data Explorer

Eischeid, J. K. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States) Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); NOAA; Diaz, H. F. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); NOAA; Bradley, R. S. [University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (USA); Jones, P. D. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

1994-01-01

An expanded and updated compilation of long-term station precipitation data, together with a new set of gridded monthly mean fields for global land areas, are described. The present data set contains 5328 station records of monthly total precipitation, covering the period from the mid-1800s to the late 1980s. The station data were individually tested and visually inspected for the presence of spurious trends, jumps, and other measurement biases. The quality control procedure which was used to check the station records for nonclimatic discontinuities and other biases is detailed. We also discuss some of the problems which typically contribute to potential inhomogeneities in precipitation records. The station data were interpolated onto a 4° latitude by 5° longitude uniform grid. Comparisons of these data with two other global-scale precipitation climatologies are presented. We find good agreement among the three global-scale climatologies over the common areas in each set. Three different indices of long-term precipitation variations over the global land areas all indicate a general increase of annual precipitation since the 1940s, although a decline is evident over the last decade. There is some indication that the last few decades of the 19th century may have been as wet as the recent ones. An interesting feature of this study is the presence of relatively large differences in seasonal trends, with March-May and September-November becoming wetter in the last few decades. The December-February and June-August seasons exhibit smaller overall trends, although the northern winter season does exhibit large decadal-scale fluctuations.

Minimizing the regrets of long-term urban floodplain management decisions under deeply uncertain climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, J. S.; Kirshen, P. H.; Vogel, R. M.

2016-12-01

Making long-term floodplain management decisions under uncertain climate change is a major urban planning challenge of the 21stcentury. To support these efforts, we introduce a screening-level optimization model that identifies adaptation portfolios by minimizing the regrets associated with their flood-control and damage costs under different climate change trajectories that are deeply uncertain, i.e. have probabilities that cannot be specified plausibly. This mixed integer program explicitly considers the coupled damage-reduction impacts of different floodwall designs and property-scale investments (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing of basements, permanent retreat and insurance), recommends implementation schedules, and assesses impacts to stakeholders residing in three types of homes. An application to a stylized municipality illuminates many nonlinear system dynamics stemming from large fixed capital costs, infrastructure design thresholds, and discharge-depth-damage relationships. If stakeholders tolerate mild damage, floodwalls that fully protect a community from large design events are less cost-effective than portfolios featuring both smaller floodwalls and property-scale measures. Potential losses of property tax revenue from permanent retreat motivate municipal property-tax initiatives for adaptation financing. Yet, insurance incentives for first-floor elevation may discourage locally financed floodwalls, in turn making lower-income residents more vulnerable to severe flooding. A budget constraint analysis underscores the benefits of flexible floodwall designs with low incremental expansion costs while near-optimal solutions demonstrate the scheduling flexibility of many property-scale measures. Finally, an equity analysis shows the importance of evaluating the overpayment and under-design regrets of recommended adaptation portfolios for each stakeholder and contrasts them to single-scenario model results.

Preliminary evidence for good psychometric properties of the Norwegian version of the Brief Problems Monitor (BPM).

PubMed

Richter, Jörg

2015-04-01

Methods to assess intervention progress and outcome for frequent use are needed. To provide preliminary information about psychometric properties for the Norwegian version of the Brief Problems Monitor. Cronbach's alpha scores and intra-class correlation coefficients as indicators for internal consistency (reliability) and Pearson correlation coefficients between corresponding subscales of the long and short ASEBA form versions as well as multiple regression coefficients to explore the predictive power of the reduced item-set related to the corresponding scale-scores of the long version were calculated in large, representative data sets of Norwegian children and adolescents. Cronbach's alpha scores of the Norwegian version of the BPM subscales varied between 0.67 (attention BPM-youth) and 0.88 (attention BPM-teacher) and between 0.90 (BPM-youth) and 0.96 (BPM-teacher) for its total problem score. Corresponding subscales from the long versions and the BPM as well as the total problems scores were closely correlated with coefficients of high effect size (all r > 0.80). The variance of the items of the BPM explained about three-quarters or more of the variance in the corresponding subscales of the long version. The Norwegian BPM has good psychometric properties in terms of 1) being acceptable to good internal consistency and in terms of 2) regression coefficients of high effect size from the BPM items to the problem-scale scores of the long versions as validity indicators. Its use in clinical practice and research can be recommended.

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-04-23

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

The OLI Radiometric Scale Realization Round Robin Measurement Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cutlip, Hansford; Cole,Jerold; Johnson, B. Carol; Maxwell, Stephen; Markham, Brian; Ong, Lawrence; Hom, Milton; Biggar, Stuart

2011-01-01

A round robin radiometric scale realization was performed at the Ball Aerospace Radiometric Calibration Laboratory in January/February 2011 in support of the Operational Land Imager (OLI) Program. Participants included Ball Aerospace, NIST, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the University of Arizona. The eight day campaign included multiple observations of three integrating sphere sources by nine radiometers. The objective of the campaign was to validate the radiance calibration uncertainty ascribed to the integrating sphere used to calibrate the OLI instrument. The instrument level calibration source uncertainty was validated by quatnifying: (1) the long term stability of the NIST calibrated radiance artifact, (2) the responsivity scale of the Ball Aerospace transfer radiometer and (3) the operational characteristics of the large integrating sphere.

Iron-Based Amorphous Coatings Produced by HVOF Thermal Spray Processing-Coating Structure and Properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beardsley, M B

2008-03-26

The feasibility to coat large SNF/HLW containers with a structurally amorphous material (SAM) was demonstrated on sub-scale models fabricated from Type 316L stainless steel. The sub-scale model were coated with SAM 1651 material using kerosene high velocity oxygen fuel (HVOF) torch to thicknesses ranging from 1 mm to 2 mm. The process parameters such as standoff distance, oxygen flow, and kerosene flow, were optimized in order to improve the corrosion properties of the coatings. Testing in an electrochemical cell and long-term exposure to a salt spray environment were used to guide the selection of process parameters.

Electrodynamics of the middle atmosphere: Superpressure balloon program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holzworth, Robert H.

1987-01-01

In this experiment a comprehensive set of electrical parameters were measured during eight long duration flights in the southern hemisphere stratosphere. These flight resulted in the largest data set ever collected from the stratosphere. The stratosphere has never been electrodynamically sampled in the systematic manner before. New discoveries include short term variability in the planetary scale electric current system, the unexpected observation of stratospheric conductivity variations over thunderstorms and the observation of direct stratospheric conductivity variations following a relatively small solar flare. Major statistical studies were conducted of the large scale current systems, the stratospheric conductivity and the neutral gravity waves (from pressure and temperature data) using the entire data set.

Cells as advanced therapeutics: State-of-the-art, challenges, and opportunities in large scale biomanufacturing of high-quality cells for adoptive immunotherapies.

PubMed

Dwarshuis, Nate J; Parratt, Kirsten; Santiago-Miranda, Adriana; Roy, Krishnendu

2017-05-15

Therapeutic cells hold tremendous promise in treating currently incurable, chronic diseases since they perform multiple, integrated, complex functions in vivo compared to traditional small-molecule drugs or biologics. However, they also pose significant challenges as therapeutic products because (a) their complex mechanisms of actions are difficult to understand and (b) low-cost bioprocesses for large-scale, reproducible manufacturing of cells have yet to be developed. Immunotherapies using T cells and dendritic cells (DCs) have already shown great promise in treating several types of cancers, and human mesenchymal stromal cells (hMSCs) are now extensively being evaluated in clinical trials as immune-modulatory cells. Despite these exciting developments, the full potential of cell-based therapeutics cannot be realized unless new engineering technologies enable cost-effective, consistent manufacturing of high-quality therapeutic cells at large-scale. Here we review cell-based immunotherapy concepts focused on the state-of-the-art in manufacturing processes including cell sourcing, isolation, expansion, modification, quality control (QC), and culture media requirements. We also offer insights into how current technologies could be significantly improved and augmented by new technologies, and how disciplines must converge to meet the long-term needs for large-scale production of cell-based immunotherapies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large Scale eHealth Deployment in Europe: Insights from Concurrent Use of Standards.

PubMed

Eichelberg, Marco; Chronaki, Catherine

2016-01-01

Large-scale eHealth deployment projects face a major challenge when called to select the right set of standards and tools to achieve sustainable interoperability in an ecosystem including both legacy systems and new systems reflecting technological trends and progress. There is not a single standard that would cover all needs of an eHealth project, and there is a multitude of overlapping and perhaps competing standards that can be employed to define document formats, terminology, communication protocols mirroring alternative technical approaches and schools of thought. eHealth projects need to respond to the important question of how alternative or inconsistently implemented standards and specifications can be used to ensure practical interoperability and long-term sustainability in large scale eHealth deployment. In the eStandards project, 19 European case studies reporting from R&D and large-scale eHealth deployment and policy projects were analyzed. Although this study is not exhaustive, reflecting on the concepts, standards, and tools for concurrent use and the successes, failures, and lessons learned, this paper offers practical insights on how eHealth deployment projects can make the most of the available eHealth standards and tools and how standards and profile developing organizations can serve the users embracing sustainability and technical innovation.

Feasibility Study on the Satellite Rainfall Data for Prediction of Sediment- Related Disaster by the Japanese Prediction Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, Y.; Ishizuka, T.; Osanai, N.; Okazumi, T.

2014-12-01

In this study, the sediment-related disaster prediction method which based ground gauged rainfall-data, currently practiced in Japan was coupled with satellite rainfall data and applied to domestic large-scale sediment-related disasters. The study confirmed the feasibility of this integrated method. In Asia, large-scale sediment-related disasters which can sweep away an entire settlement occur frequently. Leyte Island suffered from a huge landslide in 2004, and Typhoon Molakot in 2009 caused huge landslides in Taiwan. In the event of these sediment-related disasters, immediate responses by central and local governments are crucial in crisis management. In general, there are not enough rainfall gauge stations in developing countries. Therefore national and local governments have little information to determine the risk level of water induced disasters in their service areas. In the Japanese methodology, a criterion is set by combining two indices: the short-term rainfall index and long-term rainfall index. The short-term rainfall index is defined as the 60-minute total rainfall; the long-term rainfall index as the soil-water index, which is an estimation of the retention status of fallen rainfall in soil. In July 2009, a high-density sediment related disaster, or a debris flow, occurred in Hofu City of Yamaguchi Prefecture, in the western region of Japan. This event was calculated by the Japanese standard methodology, and then analyzed for its feasibility. Hourly satellite based rainfall has underestimates compared with ground based rainfall data. Long-term index correlates with each other. Therefore, this study confirmed that it is possible to deliver information on the risk level of sediment-related disasters such as shallow landslides and debris flows. The prediction method tested in this study is expected to assist for timely emergency responses to rainfall-induced natural disasters in sparsely gauged areas. As the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Plan progresses, spatial resolution, time resolution and accuracy of rainfall data should be further improved and will be more effective in practical use.

Simulation of long-term influence from technical systems on permafrost with various short-scale and hourly operation modes in Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaganova, N. A.

2017-12-01

Technogenic and climatic influences have a significant impact on the degradation of permafrost. Long-term forecasts of such changes during long-time periods have to be taken into account in the oil and gas and construction industries in view to development the Arctic and Subarctic regions. There are considered constantly operating technical systems (for example, oil and gas wells) that affect changes in permafrost, as well as the technical systems that have a short-term impact on permafrost (for example, flare systems for emergency flaring of associated gas). The second type of technical systems is rather complex for simulation, since it is required to reserve both short and long-scales in computations with variable time steps describing the complex technological processes. The main attention is paid to the simulation of long-term influence on the permafrost from the second type of the technical systems.

Millennial-scale faunal record reveals differential resilience of European large mammals to human impacts across the Holocene.

PubMed

Crees, Jennifer J; Carbone, Chris; Sommer, Robert S; Benecke, Norbert; Turvey, Samuel T

2016-03-30

The use of short-term indicators for understanding patterns and processes of biodiversity loss can mask longer-term faunal responses to human pressures. We use an extensive database of approximately 18,700 mammalian zooarchaeological records for the last 11,700 years across Europe to reconstruct spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene range change for 15 large-bodied mammal species. European mammals experienced protracted, non-congruent range losses, with significant declines starting in some species approximately 3000 years ago and continuing to the present, and with the timing, duration and magnitude of declines varying individually between species. Some European mammals became globally extinct during the Holocene, whereas others experienced limited or no significant range change. These findings demonstrate the relatively early onset of prehistoric human impacts on postglacial biodiversity, and mirror species-specific patterns of mammalian extinction during the Late Pleistocene. Herbivores experienced significantly greater declines than carnivores, revealing an important historical extinction filter that informs our understanding of relative resilience and vulnerability to human pressures for different taxa. We highlight the importance of large-scale, long-term datasets for understanding complex protracted extinction processes, although the dynamic pattern of progressive faunal depletion of European mammal assemblages across the Holocene challenges easy identification of 'static' past baselines to inform current-day environmental management and restoration. © 2016 The Author(s).

Temporal change in deep-sea benthic ecosystems: a review of the evidence from recent time-series studies.

PubMed

Glover, A G; Gooday, A J; Bailey, D M; Billett, D S M; Chevaldonné, P; Colaço, A; Copley, J; Cuvelier, D; Desbruyères, D; Kalogeropoulou, V; Klages, M; Lampadariou, N; Lejeusne, C; Mestre, N C; Paterson, G L J; Perez, T; Ruhl, H; Sarrazin, J; Soltwedel, T; Soto, E H; Thatje, S; Tselepides, A; Van Gaever, S; Vanreusel, A

2010-01-01

Societal concerns over the potential impacts of recent global change have prompted renewed interest in the long-term ecological monitoring of large ecosystems. The deep sea is the largest ecosystem on the planet, the least accessible, and perhaps the least understood. Nevertheless, deep-sea data collected over the last few decades are now being synthesised with a view to both measuring global change and predicting the future impacts of further rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. For many years, it was assumed by many that the deep sea is a stable habitat, buffered from short-term changes in the atmosphere or upper ocean. However, recent studies suggest that deep-seafloor ecosystems may respond relatively quickly to seasonal, inter-annual and decadal-scale shifts in upper-ocean variables. In this review, we assess the evidence for these long-term (i.e. inter-annual to decadal-scale) changes both in biologically driven, sedimented, deep-sea ecosystems (e.g. abyssal plains) and in chemosynthetic ecosystems that are partially geologically driven, such as hydrothermal vents and cold seeps. We have identified 11 deep-sea sedimented ecosystems for which published analyses of long-term biological data exist. At three of these, we have found evidence for a progressive trend that could be potentially linked to recent climate change, although the evidence is not conclusive. At the other sites, we have concluded that the changes were either not significant, or were stochastically variable without being clearly linked to climate change or climate variability indices. For chemosynthetic ecosystems, we have identified 14 sites for which there are some published long-term data. Data for temporal changes at chemosynthetic ecosystems are scarce, with few sites being subjected to repeated visits. However, the limited evidence from hydrothermal vents suggests that at fast-spreading centres such as the East Pacific Rise, vent communities are impacted on decadal scales by stochastic events such as volcanic eruptions, with associated fauna showing complex patterns of community succession. For the slow-spreading centres such as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, vent sites appear to be stable over the time periods measured, with no discernable long-term trend. At cold seeps, inferences based on spatial studies in the Gulf of Mexico, and data on organism longevity, suggest that these sites are stable over many hundreds of years. However, at the Haakon Mosby mud volcano, a large, well-studied seep in the Barents Sea, periodic mud slides associated with gas and fluid venting may disrupt benthic communities, leading to successional sequences over time. For chemosynthetic ecosystems of biogenic origin (e.g. whale-falls), it is likely that the longevity of the habitat depends mainly on the size of the carcass and the ecological setting, with large remains persisting as a distinct seafloor habitat for up to 100 years. Studies of shallow-water analogs of deep-sea ecosystems such as marine caves may also yield insights into temporal processes. Although it is obvious from the geological record that past climate change has impacted deep-sea faunas, the evidence that recent climate change or climate variability has altered deep-sea benthic communities is extremely limited. This mainly reflects the lack of remote sensing of this vast seafloor habitat. Current and future advances in deep-ocean benthic science involve new remote observing technologies that combine a high temporal resolution (e.g. cabled observatories) with spatial capabilities (e.g. autonomous vehicles undertaking image surveys of the seabed). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plans for an Enhanced Terrestrial and Freshwater Environmental Observation Network in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Everson, C. S.; Bond, W. J.; Moncrieff, G. R.; Everson, T. M.

2015-12-01

There is currently little information in South Africa concerning the influence of terrestrial ecosystems on biosphere-atmosphere interactions and their impact on the earth system. Climate modellers require data on energy exchanges between the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum to develop surface models of carbon, energy and water to scale up from the different biomes in South Africa, to regional and, ultimately, global scales. Atmospheric exchanges of South African biomes (ecosystems) are important due to the large and varied pant diversity they represent. The important ecosystem services (including water) delivered by these natural systems and their potential role in the long-term CO2 uptake from the atmosphere and carbon storage is a key gap in South African research. South Africa is already a water-scarce country so the predicted impacts of climate change on water resources are likely to have devastating effects. It is against this diminishing water supply that the South African government must develop innovative investments in water technologies and infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of growing water shortages due to climate change. The Department of Science and Technology of South Africa is planning a multi-million rand investment in long-term ecological infrastructure with a focus on carbon, water and energy. The terrestrial programme will comprise six to seven landscape-scale 'climate change observatories', some in urban and agricultural situations, with eddy covariance flux towers for carbon water and energy measurements, regular remote sensing, for the long-term collection of environmental, ecological and social data. The South African flux network measurement programme aims to become a key role player in the assessment of the consequences of rapid land use change and future impacts of climate change both regionally and internationally. Key words: flux towers, eddy co-variance, carbon, water and energy

Ward identities and consistency relations for the large scale structure with multiple species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peloso, Marco; Pietroni, Massimo, E-mail: peloso@physics.umn.edu, E-mail: pietroni@pd.infn.it

2014-04-01

We present fully nonlinear consistency relations for the squeezed bispectrum of Large Scale Structure. These relations hold when the matter component of the Universe is composed of one or more species, and generalize those obtained in [1,2] in the single species case. The multi-species relations apply to the standard dark matter + baryons scenario, as well as to the case in which some of the fields are auxiliary quantities describing a particular population, such as dark matter halos or a specific galaxy class. If a large scale velocity bias exists between the different populations new terms appear in the consistencymore » relations with respect to the single species case. As an illustration, we discuss two physical cases in which such a velocity bias can exist: (1) a new long range scalar force in the dark matter sector (resulting in a violation of the equivalence principle in the dark matter-baryon system), and (2) the distribution of dark matter halos relative to that of the underlying dark matter field.« less

The accurate particle tracer code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yulei; Liu, Jian; Qin, Hong; Yu, Zhi; Yao, Yicun

2017-11-01

The Accurate Particle Tracer (APT) code is designed for systematic large-scale applications of geometric algorithms for particle dynamical simulations. Based on a large variety of advanced geometric algorithms, APT possesses long-term numerical accuracy and stability, which are critical for solving multi-scale and nonlinear problems. To provide a flexible and convenient I/O interface, the libraries of Lua and Hdf5 are used. Following a three-step procedure, users can efficiently extend the libraries of electromagnetic configurations, external non-electromagnetic forces, particle pushers, and initialization approaches by use of the extendible module. APT has been used in simulations of key physical problems, such as runaway electrons in tokamaks and energetic particles in Van Allen belt. As an important realization, the APT-SW version has been successfully distributed on the world's fastest computer, the Sunway TaihuLight supercomputer, by supporting master-slave architecture of Sunway many-core processors. Based on large-scale simulations of a runaway beam under parameters of the ITER tokamak, it is revealed that the magnetic ripple field can disperse the pitch-angle distribution significantly and improve the confinement of energetic runaway beam on the same time.

Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction.

PubMed

Ma, Xiaolei; Dai, Zhuang; He, Zhengbing; Ma, Jihui; Wang, Yong; Wang, Yunpeng

2017-04-10

This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks.

Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaolei; Dai, Zhuang; He, Zhengbing; Ma, Jihui; Wang, Yong; Wang, Yunpeng

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks. PMID:28394270

Long-Term Stability of Scores on the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition in Children with Learning Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lander, Jenny

2010-01-01

The present investigation explored the stability of scores on the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-IV (WISC-IV) over approximately a three-year period. Previous research has suggested that some children with Learning Disabilities (LD) do not demonstrate long-term stability of intelligence. Legally, school districts are no longer required…

Long-term (1998 vs. 2010) large-scale comparison of soft-bottom benthic macrofauna composition in the Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonifácio, Paulo; Grémare, Antoine; Gauthier, Olivier; Romero-Ramirez, Alicia; Bichon, Sabrina; Amouroux, Jean-Michel; Labrune, Céline

2018-01-01

We achieved a long term (i.e., 1998 vs. 2010) large scale (i.e., whole Gulf of Lions) study of benthic macrofauna composition in the Gulf of Lions based on the resampling of 91 stations located along 21 inshore-offshore transects. Results show that the 3 main benthic communities identified in 1998 were still present in 2010 although their composition changed. Using only year and station of sampling we found a significant space-time interaction explaining changes in macrofaunal community composition, and, in this study, stations differ primarily in terms of depth and distance to the Rhône river mouth. Temporal changes in benthic macrofauna composition were clearly most important at shallow stations (i.e., in the Littoral Fine Sand community) than at deep ones (i.e., Terrigenous Coastal Mud community). These results are in good agreement with the current paradigm according to which climatic oscillations such as NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and WeMO (Western Mediterranean Oscillation) are indirectly (i.e., through changes in the frequency of occurrence and the intensity of storms) controlling benthic macrofauna composition in the Gulf of Lions. This hypothesis is further supported by a meta-analysis of changes in the average and maximal yearly abundances of the polychaete Ditrupa arietina. At last, the spatial modelling of 1998 and 2010 benthic macrofauna compositions both suggested a significant effect of Rhône River inputs on the spatial distribution of benthic macrofauna in the Gulf of Lions.

Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction.

PubMed

Harley, Mitchell D; Turner, Ian L; Kinsela, Michael A; Middleton, Jason H; Mumford, Peter J; Splinter, Kristen D; Phillips, Matthew S; Simmons, Joshua A; Hanslow, David J; Short, Andrew D

2017-07-20

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.

Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments in terms of regional and large-scale climate variability during the past.

Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Somot, S.; Déqué, M.

2009-10-01

One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961-2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation.

HAPEX-Sahel: A large-scale study of land-atmosphere interactions in the semi-arid tropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutorbe, J-P.; Lebel, T.; Tinga, A.; Bessemoulin, P.; Brouwer, J.; Dolman, A.J.; Engman, E. T.; Gash, J. H. C.; Hoepffner, M.; Kabat, P.

1994-01-01

The Hydrologic Atmospheric Pilot EXperiment in the Sahel (HAPEX-Sahel) was carried out in Niger, West Africa, during 1991-1992, with an intensive observation period (IOP) in August-October 1992. It aims at improving the parameteriztion of land surface atmospheric interactions at the Global Circulation Model (GCM) gridbox scale. The experiment combines remote sensing and ground based measurements with hydrological and meteorological modeling to develop aggregation techniques for use in large scale estimates of the hydrological and meteorological behavior of large areas in the Sahel. The experimental strategy consisted of a period of intensive measurements during the transition period of the rainy to the dry season, backed up by a series of long term measurements in a 1 by 1 deg square in Niger. Three 'supersites' were instrumented with a variety of hydrological and (micro) meteorological equipment to provide detailed information on the surface energy exchange at the local scale. Boundary layer measurements and aircraft measurements were used to provide information at scales of 100-500 sq km. All relevant remote sensing images were obtained for this period. This program of measurements is now being analyzed and an extensive modelling program is under way to aggregate the information at all scales up to the GCM grid box scale. The experimental strategy and some preliminary results of the IOP are described.

Longitudinal imaging of Caenorhabditis elegans in a microfabricated device reveals variation in behavioral decline during aging

PubMed Central

Churgin, Matthew A; Jung, Sang-Kyu; Yu, Chih-Chieh; Chen, Xiangmei; Raizen, David M; Fang-Yen, Christopher

2017-01-01

The roundworm C. elegans is a mainstay of aging research due to its short lifespan and easily manipulable genetics. Current, widely used methods for long-term measurement of C. elegans are limited by low throughput and the difficulty of performing longitudinal monitoring of aging phenotypes. Here we describe the WorMotel, a microfabricated device for long-term cultivation and automated longitudinal imaging of large numbers of C. elegans confined to individual wells. Using the WorMotel, we find that short-lived and long-lived strains exhibit patterns of behavioral decline that do not temporally scale between individuals or populations, but rather resemble the shortest and longest lived individuals in a wild type population. We also find that behavioral trajectories of worms subject to oxidative stress resemble trajectories observed during aging. Our method is a powerful and scalable tool for analysis of C. elegans behavior and aging. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.26652.001 PMID:28537553

Meridional displacement of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

PubMed Central

Gille, Sarah T.

2014-01-01

Observed long-term warming trends in the Southern Ocean have been interpreted as a sign of increased poleward eddy heat transport or of a poleward displacement of the entire Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) frontal system. The two-decade-long record from satellite altimetry is an important source of information for evaluating the mechanisms governing these trends. While several recent studies have used sea surface height contours to index ACC frontal displacements, here altimeter data are instead used to track the latitude of mean ACC transport. Altimetric height contours indicate a poleward trend, regardless of whether they are associated with ACC fronts. The zonally averaged transport latitude index shows no long-term trend, implying that ACC meridional shifts determined from sea surface height might be associated with large-scale changes in sea surface height more than with localized shifts in frontal positions. The transport latitude index is weakly sensitive to the Southern Annular Mode, but is uncorrelated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. PMID:24891396

Estimates of lower-tropospheric divergence and average vertical motion in the Southern Great Plains region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muradyan, P.; Coulter, R.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Wang, J.; Ghate, V. P.

2016-12-01

Large-scale mean vertical motion affects the atmospheric stability and is an important component in cloud formation. Thus, the analysis of temporal variations in the long-term averages of large-scale vertical motion would provide valuable insights into weather and climate patterns. 915-MHz radar wind profilers (RWP) provide virtually unattended and almost uninterrupted long-term wind speed measurements. We use five years of RWP wind data from the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiments (ABLE) located within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 1999 to 2004. Wind speed data from a triangular array of SGP A1, A2, and A5 ancillary sites are used to calculate the horizontal divergence field over the profiler network area using the line integral method. The distance between each vertex of this triangle is approximately 60km. Thus, the vertical motion profiles deduced from the divergence/convergence of horizontal winds over these spatial scales are of relevance to mesoscale dynamics. The wind data from RWPs are averaged over 1 hour time slice and divergence is calculated at each range gate from the lowest at 82 m to the highest at 2.3 km. An analysis of temporal variations in the long-term averages of the atmospheric divergence and vertical air motion for the months of August/September indicates an overall vertical velocity of -0.002 m/s with a standard deviation of 0.013 m/s, agreeing well with previous studies. Overall mean of the diurnal variation of vertical velocity for the study period from surface to 500 m height is 0.0018 m/s with a standard error of 0.00095 m/s. Seasonal mean daytime vertical winds suggest generally downward motion in Winter and upward motion in Summer. Validation of the derived divergence and vertical motion against a regional climate model (Weather Forecast and Research, WRF) at a spatial resolution of 12 km, as well as clear-sky vs. cloudy conditions comparisons will also be presented.

Large-scale assessment of benthic communities across multiple marine protected areas using an autonomous underwater vehicle.

PubMed

Ferrari, Renata; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M; Ayroza, Camila Rezende; Jordan, Alan; Figueira, Will F; Byrne, Maria; Malcolm, Hamish A; Williams, Stefan B; Steinberg, Peter D

2018-01-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are designed to reduce threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning from anthropogenic activities. Assessment of MPAs effectiveness requires synchronous sampling of protected and non-protected areas at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We used an autonomous underwater vehicle to map benthic communities in replicate 'no-take' and 'general-use' (fishing allowed) zones within three MPAs along 7o of latitude. We recorded 92 taxa and 38 morpho-groups across three large MPAs. We found that important habitat-forming biota (e.g. massive sponges) were more prevalent and abundant in no-take zones, while short ephemeral algae were more abundant in general-use zones, suggesting potential short-term effects of zoning (5-10 years). Yet, short-term effects of zoning were not detected at the community level (community structure or composition), while community structure varied significantly among MPAs. We conclude that by allowing rapid, simultaneous assessments at multiple spatial scales, autonomous underwater vehicles are useful to document changes in marine communities and identify adequate scales to manage them. This study advanced knowledge of marine benthic communities and their conservation in three ways. First, we quantified benthic biodiversity and abundance, generating the first baseline of these benthic communities against which the effectiveness of three large MPAs can be assessed. Second, we identified the taxonomic resolution necessary to assess both short and long-term effects of MPAs, concluding that coarse taxonomic resolution is sufficient given that analyses of community structure at different taxonomic levels were generally consistent. Yet, observed differences were taxa-specific and may have not been evident using our broader taxonomic classifications, a classification of mid to high taxonomic resolution may be necessary to determine zoning effects on key taxa. Third, we provide an example of statistical analyses and sampling design that once temporal sampling is incorporated will be useful to detect changes of marine benthic communities across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Large-scale assessment of benthic communities across multiple marine protected areas using an autonomous underwater vehicle

PubMed Central

Ayroza, Camila Rezende; Jordan, Alan; Figueira, Will F.; Byrne, Maria; Malcolm, Hamish A.; Williams, Stefan B.; Steinberg, Peter D.

2018-01-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are designed to reduce threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning from anthropogenic activities. Assessment of MPAs effectiveness requires synchronous sampling of protected and non-protected areas at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We used an autonomous underwater vehicle to map benthic communities in replicate ‘no-take’ and ‘general-use’ (fishing allowed) zones within three MPAs along 7o of latitude. We recorded 92 taxa and 38 morpho-groups across three large MPAs. We found that important habitat-forming biota (e.g. massive sponges) were more prevalent and abundant in no-take zones, while short ephemeral algae were more abundant in general-use zones, suggesting potential short-term effects of zoning (5–10 years). Yet, short-term effects of zoning were not detected at the community level (community structure or composition), while community structure varied significantly among MPAs. We conclude that by allowing rapid, simultaneous assessments at multiple spatial scales, autonomous underwater vehicles are useful to document changes in marine communities and identify adequate scales to manage them. This study advanced knowledge of marine benthic communities and their conservation in three ways. First, we quantified benthic biodiversity and abundance, generating the first baseline of these benthic communities against which the effectiveness of three large MPAs can be assessed. Second, we identified the taxonomic resolution necessary to assess both short and long-term effects of MPAs, concluding that coarse taxonomic resolution is sufficient given that analyses of community structure at different taxonomic levels were generally consistent. Yet, observed differences were taxa-specific and may have not been evident using our broader taxonomic classifications, a classification of mid to high taxonomic resolution may be necessary to determine zoning effects on key taxa. Third, we provide an example of statistical analyses and sampling design that once temporal sampling is incorporated will be useful to detect changes of marine benthic communities across multiple spatial and temporal scales. PMID:29547656

Reactivity continuum modeling of leaf, root, and wood decomposition across biomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koehler, Birgit; Tranvik, Lars J.

2015-07-01

Large carbon dioxide amounts are released to the atmosphere during organic matter decomposition. Yet the large-scale and long-term regulation of this critical process in global carbon cycling by litter chemistry and climate remains poorly understood. We used reactivity continuum (RC) modeling to analyze the decadal data set of the "Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment," in which fine litter and wood decomposition was studied in eight biome types (224 time series). In 32 and 46% of all sites the litter content of the acid-unhydrolyzable residue (AUR, formerly referred to as lignin) and the AUR/nitrogen ratio, respectively, retarded initial decomposition rates. This initial rate-retarding effect generally disappeared within the first year of decomposition, and rate-stimulating effects of nutrients and a rate-retarding effect of the carbon/nitrogen ratio became more prevalent. For needles and leaves/grasses, the influence of climate on decomposition decreased over time. For fine roots, the climatic influence was initially smaller but increased toward later-stage decomposition. The climate decomposition index was the strongest climatic predictor of decomposition. The similar variability in initial decomposition rates across litter categories as across biome types suggested that future changes in decomposition may be dominated by warming-induced changes in plant community composition. In general, the RC model parameters successfully predicted independent decomposition data for the different litter-biome combinations (196 time series). We argue that parameterization of large-scale decomposition models with RC model parameters, as opposed to the currently common discrete multiexponential models, could significantly improve their mechanistic foundation and predictive accuracy across climate zones and litter categories.

Population synchrony of a native fish across three Laurentian Great Lakes: Evaluating the effects of dispersal and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, D.B.; Adams, J.V.; Gorman, O.T.; Madenjian, C.P.; Riley, S.C.; Roseman, E.F.; Schaeffer, J.S.

2010-01-01

Climate and dispersal are the two most commonly cited mechanisms to explain spatial synchrony among time series of animal populations, and climate is typically most important for fishes. Using data from 1978-2006, we quantified the spatial synchrony in recruitment and population catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) for bloater (Coregonus hoyi) populations across lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron. In this natural field experiment, climate was highly synchronous across lakes but the likelihood of dispersal between lakes differed. When data from all lakes were pooled, modified correlograms revealed spatial synchrony to occur up to 800 km for long-term (data not detrended) trends and up to 600 km for short-term (data detrended by the annual rate of change) trends. This large spatial synchrony more than doubles the scale previously observed in freshwater fish populations, and exceeds the scale found in most marine or estuarine populations. When analyzing the data separately for within- and between-lake pairs, spatial synchrony was always observed within lakes, up to 400 or 600 km. Conversely, between-lake synchrony did not occur among short-term trends, and for long-term trends, the scale of synchrony was highly variable. For recruit CPUE, synchrony occurred up to 600 km between both lakes Michigan and Huron (where dispersal was most likely) and lakes Michigan and Superior (where dispersal was least likely), but failed to occur between lakes Huron and Superior (where dispersal likelihood was intermediate). When considering the scale of putative bloater dispersal and genetic information from previous studies, we concluded that dispersal was likely underlying within-lake synchrony but climate was more likely underlying between-lake synchrony. The broad scale of synchrony in Great Lakes bloater populations increases their probability of extirpation, a timely message for fishery managers given current low levels of bloater abundance. ?? Springer-Verlag 2009.

Predicting the propagation of concentration and saturation fronts in fixed-bed filters.

PubMed

Callery, O; Healy, M G

2017-10-15

The phenomenon of adsorption is widely exploited across a range of industries to remove contaminants from gases and liquids. Much recent research has focused on identifying low-cost adsorbents which have the potential to be used as alternatives to expensive industry standards like activated carbons. Evaluating these emerging adsorbents entails a considerable amount of labor intensive and costly testing and analysis. This study proposes a simple, low-cost method to rapidly assess the potential of novel media for potential use in large-scale adsorption filters. The filter media investigated in this study were low-cost adsorbents which have been found to be capable of removing dissolved phosphorus from solution, namely: i) aluminum drinking water treatment residual, and ii) crushed concrete. Data collected from multiple small-scale column tests was used to construct a model capable of describing and predicting the progression of adsorbent saturation and the associated effluent concentration breakthrough curves. This model was used to predict the performance of long-term, large-scale filter columns packed with the same media. The approach proved highly successful, and just 24-36 h of experimental data from the small-scale column experiments were found to provide sufficient information to predict the performance of the large-scale filters for up to three months. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term efficacy and safety of blonanserin in patients with first-episode schizophrenia: a 1-year open-label trial.

PubMed

Ninomiya, Yuriko; Miyamoto, Seiya; Tenjin, Tomomi; Ogino, Shin; Miyake, Nobumi; Kaneda, Yasuhiro; Sumiyoshi, Tomiki; Yamaguchi, Noboru

2014-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term effectiveness and safety of blonanserin, a second-generation antipsychotic drug developed in Japan, in patients with first-episode schizophrenia. Twenty-three antipsychotic-naïve patients with first-episode schizophrenia were treated within an open-label, 1-year, prospective trial of blonanserin (2-24 mg/day). Clinical evaluations were conducted at baseline and 2, 6, and 12 months after the start of treatment. The main outcome measures were changes in subjective well-being and subjective quality of life, as assessed by the Subjective Well-being under Neuroleptic treatment scale Short form-Japanese version and the Schizophrenia Quality of Life Scale-Japanese version, respectively. Secondary outcome measures included the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia-Japanese version, laboratory tests, bodyweight, and extrapyramidal symptoms. Fourteen patients (60.9%) remained on the study at 1 year. In the intention-to-treat analysis, significant improvements were observed in several subscales on the Subjective Well-being under Neuroleptic treatment scale Short form-Japanese version, the Schizophrenia Quality of Life Scale-Japanese version, and the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia-Japanese version, and in all factor scores on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Improvement in depressive symptoms with blonanserin treatment was positively correlated with improvements in subjective well-being and subjective quality of life, as well as verbal memory. No significant changes were noted for any safety measure during the 1-year study period. Blonanserin was well tolerated and effective for the treatment of first-episode schizophrenia in terms of subjective wellness, cognition, and a wide range of pathological symptoms. Further large-scale studies are warranted to confirm our findings. © 2014 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2014 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

The role of silica nanoparticles on long-term room-temperature stabilization of water-in-oil emulsions containing microalgae.

PubMed

Fernández, L; Scher, H; VanderGheynst, J S

2015-12-01

Prior research has demonstrated that microalgae can be stored for extended periods of time at room temperature in water-in-oil (W/O) emulsions stabilized by surface modified silica nanoparticles. However, little research has been done to examine the impact of nanoparticle concentration on emulsion stability. Such information is important for large-scale production of emulsions for microalgae storage and delivery. Studies were done to examine the impact of silica nanoparticle concentration on emulsion stability and identify the lower limit for nanoparticle concentration. Emulsion physical stability was determined using internal phase droplet size measurements and biological stability was evaluated using cell density measurements. The results demonstrate that nanoparticle concentrations as low as 0·5wt% in the oil phase can be used without significant losses in emulsion stability and microalgae viability. Stabilization technologies are needed for long-term storage and application of microalgae in agricultural-scale systems. While prior work has demonstrated that water-in-oil emulsions containing silica nanoparticles offer a promising solution for long-term microalgae storage at room temperature, little research has been done to examine the impact of nanoparticle concentration on emulsion stability. Here, we show the effects of silica nanoparticle concentration on maintaining physical stability of emulsions and sustaining viable cells. The results enable informed decisions to be made regarding production of emulsions containing silica nanoparticles and associated impacts on stabilization of microalgae. © 2015 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Changing climate in the Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lluch-Cota, Salvador E.; Parés-Sierra, Alejandro; Magaña-Rueda, Víctor O.; Arreguín-Sánchez, Francisco; Bazzino, Gastón; Herrera-Cervantes, Hugo; Lluch-Belda, Daniel

2010-10-01

We conducted a four year interdisciplinary collaborative project focused in the Gulf of California, the most important fishing region for Mexico. We reviewed published reports, collected and analyzed physical, chemical and ecological data sets, and developed models for the physical (atmosphere and ocean) and ecological components of this large marine ecosystem, to examine prevalent scientific questions regarding climate variability and change in the region, covering three time scales (ENSO, decadal-to-interdecadal, and long-term trend). We were able to describe how the Gulf of California influences the northward propagation of coastal trapped Kelvin waves associated with El Niño (ENSO) events, and how this signal, together with changes in the atmospheric forcing, results in a ENSO signature inside the Gulf. For the decadal-to-multidecadal scales, we found coherent trends among series, and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The long-term temperature signal for the Gulf of California shows a warming that occurred in the mid 20th century, approximately a decade before that in the California Current. This signal is coherent with fluctuations in the industrial fisheries catch records (sardine and shrimps). For the recent decades we found no significant sustained long-term trend in any of the time series of physical and ecological variables that we considered. Instead, variability seems to be fully dominated by the interaction of PDO and ENSO. We stress the urgent need for more modeling efforts and the establishment of interdisciplinary (physical and biological) observation platforms for the marine environment in the Gulf of California.

Intervening to reduce the risk of future disability from multiple sclerosis: are we there yet?

PubMed

Dahdaleh, Maurice; Alroughani, Raed; Aljumah, Mohammed; AlTahan, Abdulrahman; Alsharoqi, Issa; Bohlega, Saeed A; Daif, Abdulkader; Deleu, Dirk; Inshasi, Jihad; Karabudak, Rana; Sahraian, Mohammed A; Taha, Karim; Yammout, Bassem I; Zakaria, Magd

2017-10-01

Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) delay or may prevent the progression of patients with high-risk clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS), and from relapsing-remitting MS to secondary progressive MS. Current evidence on the effects of DMT on disability in MS is supported by the use of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), which is dominated by ambulation, and usually used as a secondary outcome measure. Less is known about the long-term effects of DMTs on other aspects of functional status, particularly cognition, which is a key determinant of ability to work. The time scale for measurements of disability is at most a few years, with scant data from more than 10 years of observation. Longer prospective follow-up of large numbers of patients with CIS is needed to determine whether early intervention with a DMT influences long-term disease progression. Finally, the emergence of the radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) as a clinical entity has shifted the debate about when to intervene to an even earlier time frame. Balancing the significant side-effects associated with DMT in general and the expected outcome of pharmacologic intervention is increasingly problematic for managing patients with uncertain prognosis, as many patients may have low-risk CIS, benign MS or patients with RIS only. Preventing long-term disability in MS should be recognised more clearly as an important outcome in its own right, with disability measured more consistently with more sensitive instruments beyond the use of the EDSS.

Base Station Placement Algorithm for Large-Scale LTE Heterogeneous Networks.

PubMed

Lee, Seungseob; Lee, SuKyoung; Kim, Kyungsoo; Kim, Yoon Hyuk

2015-01-01

Data traffic demands in cellular networks today are increasing at an exponential rate, giving rise to the development of heterogeneous networks (HetNets), in which small cells complement traditional macro cells by extending coverage to indoor areas. However, the deployment of small cells as parts of HetNets creates a key challenge for operators' careful network planning. In particular, massive and unplanned deployment of base stations can cause high interference, resulting in highly degrading network performance. Although different mathematical modeling and optimization methods have been used to approach various problems related to this issue, most traditional network planning models are ill-equipped to deal with HetNet-specific characteristics due to their focus on classical cellular network designs. Furthermore, increased wireless data demands have driven mobile operators to roll out large-scale networks of small long term evolution (LTE) cells. Therefore, in this paper, we aim to derive an optimum network planning algorithm for large-scale LTE HetNets. Recently, attempts have been made to apply evolutionary algorithms (EAs) to the field of radio network planning, since they are characterized as global optimization methods. Yet, EA performance often deteriorates rapidly with the growth of search space dimensionality. To overcome this limitation when designing optimum network deployments for large-scale LTE HetNets, we attempt to decompose the problem and tackle its subcomponents individually. Particularly noting that some HetNet cells have strong correlations due to inter-cell interference, we propose a correlation grouping approach in which cells are grouped together according to their mutual interference. Both the simulation and analytical results indicate that the proposed solution outperforms the random-grouping based EA as well as an EA that detects interacting variables by monitoring the changes in the objective function algorithm in terms of system throughput performance.

Sand waves in environmental flows: Insights gained by coupling large-eddy simulation with morphodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotiropoulos, Fotis; Khosronejad, Ali

2016-02-01

Sand waves arise in subaqueous and Aeolian environments as the result of the complex interaction between turbulent flows and mobile sand beds. They occur across a wide range of spatial scales, evolve at temporal scales much slower than the integral scale of the transporting turbulent flow, dominate river morphodynamics, undermine streambank stability and infrastructure during flooding, and sculpt terrestrial and extraterrestrial landscapes. In this paper, we present the vision for our work over the last ten years, which has sought to develop computational tools capable of simulating the coupled interactions of sand waves with turbulence across the broad range of relevant scales: from small-scale ripples in laboratory flumes to mega-dunes in large rivers. We review the computational advances that have enabled us to simulate the genesis and long-term evolution of arbitrarily large and complex sand dunes in turbulent flows using large-eddy simulation and summarize numerous novel physical insights derived from our simulations. Our findings explain the role of turbulent sweeps in the near-bed region as the primary mechanism for destabilizing the sand bed, show that the seeds of the emergent structure in dune fields lie in the heterogeneity of the turbulence and bed shear stress fluctuations over the initially flatbed, and elucidate how large dunes at equilibrium give rise to energetic coherent structures and modify the spectra of turbulence. We also discuss future challenges and our vision for advancing a data-driven simulation-based engineering science approach for site-specific simulations of river flooding.

Examining the reliability and validity of an abbreviated Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised (PPI-R) in four samples.

PubMed

Ruchensky, Jared R; Edens, John F; Donnellan, M Brent; Witt, Edward A

2017-02-01

A recently developed 40-item short-form of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised (PPI-R; Lilienfeld & Widows, 2005) has shown considerable promise as an alternative to the long-form of the instrument (Eisenbarth, Lilienfeld, & Yarkoni, 2015). Beyond the initial construction of the short-form, however, Eisenbarth et al. only evaluated a small number of external correlates in a German college student sample. In this study, we evaluate the internal consistency of the short-form scales in 4 samples previously administered the full PPI-R (3 U.S. college student samples and 1 U.S. forensic psychiatric inpatient sample) and examine a wide range of external correlates to compare the nomological nets of the short- and long-forms. Across all 4 samples, correlations between each short-form scale and its corresponding long-form scale were uniformly high (all rs > .75). In terms of external correlates, the pattern of associations was exceedingly similar, for the short-form and long-form composites with a largely trivial reduction in effect size. Collectively, our findings offer considerable support for the utility of this new short-form as a substitute for the full PPI-R. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

When micro meets macro: microbial lipid analysis and ecosystem ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balser, T.; Gutknecht, J.

2008-12-01

There is growing interest in linking soil microbial community composition and activity with large-scale field studies of nutrient cycling or plant community response to disturbances. And while analysis of microbial communities has moved rapidly in the past decade from culture-based to non-culture based techniques, still it must be asked what have we gained from the move? How well does the necessarily micro-scale of microbial analysis allow us to address questions of interest at the macro-scale? Several challenges exist in bridging the scales, and foremost is the question of methodological feasibility. Past microbiological methodologies have not been readily adaptable to the large sample sizes necessary for ecosystem-scale research. As a result, it has been difficult to generate compatible microbial and ecosystem data sets. We describe the use of a modified lipid extraction method to generate microbial community data sets that allow us to match landscape-scale or long-term ecological studies with microbial community data. We briefly discuss the challenges and advantages associated with lipid analysis as an approach to addressing ecosystem ecological studies, and provide examples from our research in ecosystem restoration and recovery following disturbance and climate change.

Clinical-scale validation of a new efficient procedure for cryopreservation of ex vivo expanded cord blood hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells.

PubMed

Duchez, Pascale; Rodriguez, Laura; Chevaleyre, Jean; De La Grange, Philippe Brunet; Ivanovic, Zoran

2016-12-01

Survival of ex vivo expanded hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) and progenitor cells is low with the standard cryopreservation procedure. We recently showed that the efficiency of cryopreservation of these cells may be greatly enhanced by adding a serum-free xeno-free culture medium (HP01 Macopharma), which improves the antioxidant and biochemical properties of the cryopreservation solution. Here we present the clinical-scale validation of this cryopreservation procedure. The hematopoietic cells expanded in clinical-scale cultures were cryopreserved applying the new HP01-based procedure. The viability, apoptosis rate and number of functional committed progenitors (methyl-cellulose colony forming cell test), short-term repopulating HSCs (primary recipient NSG mice) and long-term HSCs (secondary recipient NSG mice) were tested before and after thawing. The efficiency of clinical-scale procedure reproduced the efficiency of cryopreservation obtained earlier in miniature sample experiments. Furthermore, the full preservation of short- and long-term HSCs was obtained in clinical scale conditions. Because the results obtained in clinical-scale volume are comparable to our earlier results in miniature-scale cultures, the clinical-scale procedure should be considered validated. It allows cryopreservation of the whole ex vivo expanded culture content, conserving full short- and long-term HSC activity. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

HIV-related politics in long-term perspective.

PubMed

Friedman, S R

1998-06-01

Some long-term, large-scale socio-economic changes may affect the politics of HIV and other emerging viruses such as hepatitis C. It is useful to ask why the potential peace dividend of the early 1990s failed to provide adequate resources for HIV-related social and medical service delivery in developed or developing nations. This failure can be understood by looking at long-term global economic trends and the pressures they put on governments and corporations. They have produced a period in which fundamental issues of political and economic structure are at stake and, often, the response is a divide-and-rule politics to promote stability. National politics differ in terms of the extent to which such a 'politics of scapegoating' is institutionalized and in terms of which groups are scapegoated. Groups such as drug injectors, gay and bisexual men and sex traders are particularly likely to be targeted both by the scapegoaters and by HIV. Given this framework, how should public health professionals and activists engaged in HIV-related issues respond? Under what circumstances should we orient efforts upwards towards corporate, political or bureaucratic leaders? Under what circumstances, and how, should we orient towards popular forces? Relatedly, we need to consider an issue we often ignore: What do we have to offer potential allies? That is, in terms of their goals, philosophies and needs, why should they ally with us?

AMMA-CATCH a Hydrological, Meteorological and Ecological Long Term Observatory on West Africa : Some Recent Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galle, S.; Grippa, M.; Peugeot, C.; Bouzou Moussa, I.; Cappelaere, B.; Demarty, J.; Mougin, E.; Lebel, T.; Chaffard, V.

2015-12-01

AMMA-CATCH is a multi-scale observation system dedicated to long-term monitoring of the water cycle, the vegetation dynamics and their interaction with climate and water resources in West Africa. In the context of the global change, long-term observations are required to i) gain understanding in eco-hydrological processes over this highly contrasted region, ii) help their representation in Earth System Models, and iii) detect trends and infer their impacts on water resources and living conditions. It is made of three meso-scale sites (~ 1°x1°) in Mali, Niger and Benin, extending along the West African eco-climatic gradient. Within this regional window (5° by 9°), each of the three sites comprises a multi-scale set-up which helps documenting the components of the hydrologic budget and the evolutions of the surface conditions over a range of time scales: raingages, piezometers, river discharge stations, soil moisture and temperature profiles, turbulent fluxes measurements, LAI/biomass monitoring. This observation system has been continuously generating coherent datasets for 10 to 25 years depending on the datasets. It is jointly operated by French and African (Mali, Niger and Benin) research institutions. The data-base is available to the community through the website (www.amma-catch.org). AMMA-CATCH is a member of the French critical zone observatory network "Réseau des Bassins Versants", (RBV). AMMA-CATH participates to several global or regional observation networks, such as FluxNet, CarboAfrica, International Soil Moisture Networks (ISMN) and to calibration/validation campaigns for satellite missions such as SMOS (CNES, ESA), MEGHA-TROPIQUES (France/India) or SWAP(NASA). AMMA-CATCH fills a gap over a region, West Africa, where environmental data are largely lacking, and thus, it can usefully contribute to the international networking effort for environmental monitoring and research. Recent results on regional evolution of land cover, rainfall intensity and their consequences on eco-hydrological processes and hydrosystems will be presented.

Major coastal impact induced by a 1000-year storm event

PubMed Central

Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn J.; Johannessen, Peter N.; Nielsen, Lars H.; Pejrup, Morten

2013-01-01

Extreme storms and storm surges may induce major changes along sandy barrier coastlines, potentially causing substantial environmental and economic damage. We show that the most destructive storm (the 1634 AD storm) documented for the northern Wadden Sea within the last thousand years both caused permanent barrier breaching and initiated accumulation of up to several metres of marine sand. An aggradational storm shoal and a prograding shoreface sand unit having thicknesses of up to 8 m and 5 m respectively were deposited as a result of the storm and during the subsequent 30 to 40 years long healing phase, on the eroded shoreface. Our results demonstrate that millennial-scale storms can induce large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coastlines and shorefaces, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with and be triggered by a single extreme storm event.

On the theory of Lorentz gases with long range interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nota, Alessia; Simonella, Sergio; Velázquez, Juan J. L.

We construct and study the stochastic force field generated by a Poisson distribution of sources at finite density, x1,x2,…, in ℝ3 each of them yielding a long range potential QiΦ(x - xi) with possibly different charges Qi ∈ ℝ. The potential Φ is assumed to behave typically as |x|-s for large |x|, with s > 1/2. We will denote the resulting random field as “generalized Holtsmark field”. We then consider the dynamics of one tagged particle in such random force fields, in several scaling limits where the mean free path is much larger than the average distance between the scatterers. We estimate the diffusive time scale and identify conditions for the vanishing of correlations. These results are used to obtain appropriate kinetic descriptions in terms of a linear Boltzmann or Landau evolution equation depending on the specific choices of the interaction potential.

New insights into Kilauea's volcano dynamics brought by large-scale relative relocation of microearthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Got, J.-L.; Okubo, P.

2003-01-01

We investigated the microseismicity recorded in an active volcano to infer information concerning the volcano structure and long-term dynamics, by using relative relocations and focal mechanisms of microearthquakes. There were 32,000 earthquakes of the Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes recorded by more than eight stations of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory seismic network between 1988 and 1999. We studied 17,000 of these events and relocated more than 70%, with an accuracy ranging from 10 to 500 m. About 75% of these relocated events are located in the vicinity of subhorizontal decollement planes, at a depth of 8-11 km. However, the striking features revealed by these relocation results are steep southeast dipping fault planes working as reverse faults, clearly located below the decollement plane and which intersect it. If this decollement plane coincides with the pre-Mauna Loa seafloor, as hypothesized by numerous authors, such reverse faults rupture the pre-Mauna Loa oceanic crust. The weight of the volcano and pressure in the magma storage system are possible causes of these ruptures, fully compatible with the local stress tensor computed by Gillard et al. [1996]. Reverse faults are suspected of producing scarps revealed by kilometer-long horizontal slip-perpendicular lineations along the decollement surface and therefore large-scale roughness, asperities, and normal stress variations. These are capable of generating stick-slip, large-magnitude earthquakes, the spatial microseismic pattern observed in the south flank of Kilauea volcano, and Hilina-type instabilities. Rupture intersecting the decollement surface, causing its large-scale roughness, may be an important parameter controlling the growth of Hawaiian volcanoes.

Neurocognitive function in clinically stable individuals with long-term bipolar I disorder: Comparisons with schizophrenia patients and controls.

PubMed

Lin, Pei-Yun; Wang, Peng-Wei; Chen, Cheng-Sheng; Yen, Cheng-Fang

2017-05-01

This study compared the levels of the five domains of neurocognitive function-executive function, attention, memory, verbal comprehension, and perceptual organization-among clinically stable individuals with long-term bipolar I disorder, individuals with long-term schizophrenia, and a group of controls. We recruited a total of 93 clinically stable individuals with bipolar I disorder, 94 individuals with schizophrenia, and 106 controls in this study. Their neurocognitive function was measured using a series of neurocognitive function tests: the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Third Edition (WAIS-III), Line Cancellation Test, Visual Form Discrimination, Controlled Oral Word Association Test, Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, Continuous Performance Task, and Wechsler Memory Scale-Third Edition. Neurocognitive function was compared among the three groups through a multivariate analysis of variance. The results indicated that when the effect of age was controlled, clinically stable individuals with bipolar I disorder and those with schizophrenia demonstrated poor neurocognitive function on all tests except for the WAIS-III Similarity and Information and the Line Cancellation Test. The individuals with bipolar I disorder had similar levels of neurocognitive function compared with the schizophrenia group, but higher levels of neurocognitive function on the WAIS-III Comprehension, Controlled Oral Word Association Test, and Wechsler Memory Scale-Third Edition Auditory Immediate and Delayed Index and Visual Immediate and Delayed Index. The conclusions of this study suggest that compared with controls, individuals with long-term bipolar I disorder and those with long-term schizophrenia have poorer neurocognitive function, even when clinically stable. Individuals with long-term bipolar I disorder and those with long-term schizophrenia have similar levels of deficits in several domains of neurocognitive function. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

Glasgow Coma Scale and Outcomes after Structural Traumatic Head Injury in Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Heather, Natasha L.; Derraik, José G. B.; Beca, John; Hofman, Paul L.; Dansey, Rangi; Hamill, James; Cutfield, Wayne S.

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the association of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) with radiological evidence of head injury (the Abbreviated Injury Scale for the head region, AIS-HR) in young children hospitalized with traumatic head injury (THI), and the predictive value of GCS and AIS-HR scores for long-term impairment. Methods Our study involved a 10-year retrospective review of a database encompassing all patients admitted to Starship Children’s Hospital (Auckland, New Zealand, 2000–2010) with THI. Results We studied 619 children aged <5 years at the time of THI, with long-term outcome data available for 161 subjects. Both GCS and AIS-HR scores were predictive of length of intensive care unit and hospital stay (all p<0.001). GCS was correlated with AIS-HR (ρ=-0.46; p<0.001), although mild GCS scores (13–15) commonly under-estimated the severity of radiological injury: 42% of children with mild GCS scores had serious–critical THI (AIS-HR 3–5). Increasingly severe GCS or AIS-HR scores were both associated with a greater likelihood of long-term impairment (neurological disability, residual problems, and educational support). However, long-term impairment was also relatively common in children with mild GCS scores paired with structural THI more severe than a simple linear skull fracture. Conclusion Severe GCS scores will identify most cases of severe radiological injury in early childhood, and are good predictors of poor long-term outcome. However, young children admitted to hospital with structural THI and mild GCS scores have an appreciable risk of long-term disability, and also warrant long-term follow-up. PMID:24312648

Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

PubMed Central

Zurbenko, Igor

2014-01-01

Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise. PMID:25126567

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange And Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turk, J.; Chao, Y.; Haddad, Z.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Licata, S.; Poulsen, W.; Su, H.;

Complex Analysis of Combat in Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

analysis we have β−ffE ~)( where β= 2H - 1 = 1 - γ, with H being the Hurst exponent , related to the correlation exponent γ. Usually, real-world data are...statistical nature. In every instance we found strong power law correlations in the data, and were able to extract accurate scaling exponents . On the... exponents , α. The case αɘ.5 corresponds to long-term anti-correlations, meaning that large values are most likely to be followed by small values and

Ionic electroactive polymer artificial muscles in space applications.

PubMed

Punning, Andres; Kim, Kwang J; Palmre, Viljar; Vidal, Frédéric; Plesse, Cédric; Festin, Nicolas; Maziz, Ali; Asaka, Kinji; Sugino, Takushi; Alici, Gursel; Spinks, Geoff; Wallace, Gordon; Must, Indrek; Põldsalu, Inga; Vunder, Veiko; Temmer, Rauno; Kruusamäe, Karl; Torop, Janno; Kaasik, Friedrich; Rinne, Pille; Johanson, Urmas; Peikolainen, Anna-Liisa; Tamm, Tarmo; Aabloo, Alvo

2014-11-05

A large-scale effort was carried out to test the performance of seven types of ionic electroactive polymer (IEAP) actuators in space-hazardous environmental factors in laboratory conditions. The results substantiate that the IEAP materials are tolerant to long-term freezing and vacuum environments as well as ionizing Gamma-, X-ray, and UV radiation at the levels corresponding to low Earth orbit (LEO) conditions. The main aim of this material behaviour investigation is to understand and predict device service time for prolonged exposure to space environment.

Of Death Stars and Death Rays: A Glimpse At The Future of Space Warfare

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

remains in step. The potential for long-term energy mining from the moon (discussed later in this paper) must also be a consideration as there will be a...spacecraft to the Itokawa asteroid , collected soil samples, and safely returned the mission to Earth. 37 In 2007, they demonstrated their mastery...helium-3 is dispersed across the lunar surface, large-scale mining operations and specialized equipment needed to extract the gas from lunar rocks will

The UCLA Design Diversity Experiment (DEDIX) system: A distributed testbed for multiple-version software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avizienis, A.; Gunningberg, P.; Kelly, J. P. J.; Strigini, L.; Traverse, P. J.; Tso, K. S.; Voges, U.

1986-01-01

To establish a long-term research facility for experimental investigations of design diversity as a means of achieving fault-tolerant systems, a distributed testbed for multiple-version software was designed. It is part of a local network, which utilizes the Locus distributed operating system to operate a set of 20 VAX 11/750 computers. It is used in experiments to measure the efficacy of design diversity and to investigate reliability increases under large-scale, controlled experimental conditions.

Effect of long-term proton pump inhibitor administration on gastric mucosal atrophy: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Zhong; Wu, Cong; Li, Ling; Wang, Zhaoming; Xie, Haibin; He, Xiaozhou; Feng, Jin

2017-01-01

Background/Aims: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are widely used for the treatment of acid-related gastrointestinal diseases. Recently, some studies have reported that PPIs can alter the gastric mucosal architecture; however, the relationship remains controversial. This meta-analysis study was designed to quantify the association between long-term PPI administration and gastric atrophy. Materials and Methods: A PubMed search was conducted to identify studies using the keywords proton pump inhibitors or PPI and gastric atrophy or atrophic gastritis; the timeframe of publication searched was up to May 2016. Heterogeneity among studies was tested with the Q test; odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. P values were calculated by I2 tests and regarded as statistically significant when <0.05. Results: We identified 13 studies that included 1465 patients under long-term PPI therapy and 1603 controls, with a total gastric atrophy rate of 14.50%. There was a higher presence of gastric atrophy (15.84%; statistically significant) in PPI group compared to the control group (13.29%) (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.00–2.41). Conclusions: The pooled data suggest that long-term PPI use is associated with increased rates of gastric atrophy. Large-scale multicenter studies should be conducted to further investigate the relationship between acid suppressants and precancerous diseases. PMID:28721975

The Impact of Long-Term Climate Change on Nitrogen Runoff at the Watershed Scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorley, J.; Duffy, C.; Arenas Amado, A.

2017-12-01

The impact of agricultural runoff is a major concern for water quality of mid-western streams. This concern is largely due to excessive use of agricultural fertilizer, a major source of nutrients in many Midwestern watersheds. In order to improve water quality in these watersheds, understanding the long-term trends in nutrient concentration and discharge is an important water quality problem. This study attempts to analyze the role of long-term temperature and precipitation on nitrate runoff in an agriculturally dominated watershed in Iowa. The approach attempts to establish the concentration-discharge (C-Q) signature for the watershed using time series analysis, frequency analysis and model simulation. The climate data is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), model GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory Coupled Model 3). The historical water quality data was made available by the IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at the University of Iowa for the clear creek watershed (CCW). The CCW is located in east-central Iowa. The CCW is representative of many Midwestern watersheds with humid-continental climate with predominantly agricultural land use. The study shows how long-term climate changes in temperature and precipitation affects the C-Q dynamics and how a relatively simple approach to data analysis and model projections can be applied to best management practices at the site.

A new method for cryopreserving adipose-derived stem cells: an attractive and suitable large-scale and long-term cell banking technology.

PubMed

De Rosa, Alfredo; De Francesco, Francesco; Tirino, Virginia; Ferraro, Giuseppe A; Desiderio, Vincenzo; Paino, Francesca; Pirozzi, Giuseppe; D'Andrea, Francesco; Papaccio, Gianpaolo

2009-12-01

Recent studies have shown potential ways for improving stem cell cryopreservation. The major need for autologous stem cell use is a long-term storage: this arises from the humans' hope of future use of their own cells. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the cell potential of vitality and differentiation before and after cryopreservation. Although several studies have shown a long-term preservation of adipose tissue, a few of them focused their attention to stem cells. The aim of this study was to evaluate the fate of cryopreserved stem cells collected from adipose tissue and stored at low a temperature in liquid nitrogen through an optimal cryopreservation solution (using slowly cooling in 6% threalose, 4% dimethyl sulfoxide, and 10% fetal bovine serum) and to develop a novel approach to efficiently preserve adipose-derived stem cells (ASCs) for future clinical applications. Results showed that stem cells, after being thawed, are still capable of differentiation and express all surface antigens detected before storage, confirming the integrity of their biology. In particular, ASCs differentiated into adipocytes, showed diffuse positivity for PPARgamma and adiponectin, and were also able to differentiate into endothelial cells without addition of angiogenic factors. Therefore, ASCs can be long-term cryopreserved, and this, due to their great numbers, is an attractive tool for clinical applications as well as of impact for the derived market.

Scaling of the polarization amplitude in quantum many-body systems in one dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Ryohei; Nakagawa, Yuya O.; Fukusumi, Yoshiki; Oshikawa, Masaki

2018-04-01

Resta proposed a definition of the electric polarization in one-dimensional systems in terms of the ground-state expectation value of the large gauge transformation operator. Vanishing of the expectation value in the thermodynamic limit implies that the system is a conductor. We study Resta's polarization amplitude (expectation value) in the S =1 /2 XXZ chain and its several generalizations, in the gapless conducting Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid phase. We obtain an analytical expression in the lowest-order perturbation theory about the free fermion point (XY chain) and an exact result for the Haldane-Shastry model with long-range interactions. We also obtain numerical results, mostly using the exact diagonalization method. We find that the amplitude exhibits a power-law scaling in the system size (chain length) and vanishes in the thermodynamic limit. On the other hand, the exponent depends on the model even when the low-energy limit is described by the Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid with the same Luttinger parameter. We find that a change in the exponent occurs when the Umklapp term(s) are eliminated, suggesting the importance of the Umklapp terms.

Hypothyroidism leads to increased collagen-based stiffness and re-expression of large cardiac titin isoforms with high compliance.

PubMed

Wu, Yiming; Peng, Jun; Campbell, Kenneth B; Labeit, Siegfried; Granzier, Henk

2007-01-01

Because long-term hypothyroidism results in diastolic dysfunction, we investigated myocardial passive stiffness in hypothyroidism and focused on the possible role of titin, an important determinant of diastolic stiffness. A rat model of hypothyroidism was used, obtained by administering propylthiouracil (PTU) for times that varied from 1 month (short-term) to 4 months (long-term). Titin expression was determined by transcript analysis, gel electrophoresis and immunoelectron microscopy. Diastolic function was measured at the isolated heart, skinned muscle, and cardiac myocyte levels. We found that hypothyroidism resulted in expression of a large titin isoform, the abundance of which gradually increased with time to become the most dominant isoform in long-term hypothyroid rats. This isoform co-migrates on high-resolution gels with fetal cardiac titin. Transcript analysis on myocardium of long-term PTU rats, provided evidence for expression of additional PEVK and Ig domain exons, similar to what has been described in fetal myocardium. Consistent with the expression of a large titin isoform, titin-based restoring and passive forces were significantly reduced in single cardiac myocytes and muscle strips of long-term hypothyroid rats. Overall muscle stiffness and LV diastolic wall stiffness were increased, however, due to increased collagen-based stiffness. We conclude that long term hypothyroidism triggers expression of a large cardiac titin isoform and that the ensuing reduction in titin-based passive stiffness functions as a compensatory mechanism to reduce LV wall stiffness.

Building a Consistent Long-Term SSS Data Record from Multi-Satellite Measurements: A Case Study in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (SPURS-2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnichenko, O.; Hacker, P. W.; Wentz, F. J.; Meissner, T.; Maximenko, N. A.; Potemra, J. T.

2016-12-01

To address the need for a consistent, continuous, long-term, high-resolution sea surface salinity (SSS) dataset for ocean research and applications, a trial SSS analysis is produced in the eastern tropical Pacific from multi-satellite observations. The new SSS data record is a synergy of data from two satellite missions. The beginning segment, covering the period from September 2011 to June 2015, utilizes Aquarius SSS data and is based on the optimum interpolation analysis developed at the University of Hawaii. The analysis is produced on a 0.25-degree grid and uses a dedicated bias-correction algorithm to correct the satellite retrievals for large-scale biases with respect to in-situ data. The time series is continued with the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite-based SSS data provided by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). To ensure consistency and continuity in the data record, SMAP SSS fields are adjusted using a set of optimally designed spatial filters and in-situ, primarily Argo, data to: (i) remove large-scale satellite biases, and (ii) reduce small-scale noise, while preserving the high spatial and temporal resolution of the data set. The consistency between the two sub-sets of the data record is evaluated during their overlapping period in April-June 2015. Verification studies show that SMAP SSS has a very good agreement with the Aquarius SSS, noting that SMAP SSS can provide better spatial resolution. The 5-yr long time series of SSS in the SPURS-2 domain (125oW, 10oN) shows fresher than normal SSS during the last year's El Nino event. The year-mean difference is about 0.5 psu. The annual cycle during the El Nino year also appears to be much weaker than in a normal year.

Drainage Basins as Large-Scale Field Laboratories of Change: Hydro-biogeochemical- economic Model Study Support for Water Pollution and Eutrophication Management Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destouni, G.

2008-12-01

Excess nutrient and pollutant releases from various point and diffuse sources at and below the land surface, associated with land use, industry and households, pose serious eutrophication and pollution risks to inland and coastal water ecosystems worldwide. These risks must be assessed, for instance according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD demands economically efficient, basin-scale water management for achieving and maintaining good physico-chemical and ecological status in all the inland and coastal waters of EU member states. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro-biogeochemical and linked economic efficiency studies of basin-scale waterborne nutrient and pollutant flows, the development over the last decades up to the current levels of these flows, the main monitoring and modelling uncertainties associated with their quantification, and the effectiveness and economic efficiency of different possible abatement strategies for abating them in order to meet WFD requirements and other environmental goals on local, national and international levels under climate and other regional change. The studies include different Swedish and Baltic Sea drainage basins. Main findings include quantification of near-coastal monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient and pollutant memory in the subsurface (soil-groundwater-sediment) water systems of drainage basins. The former may significantly mask nutrient and pollutant loads to the sea while the latter may continue to uphold large loads to inland and coastal waters long time after source mitigation. A methodology is presented for finding a rational trade-off between the two resource-demanding options to reduce, or accept and explicitly account for the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model uncertainties that limit the effectiveness and efficiency of water pollution and eutrophication management.

Physical and psychological long-term outcome after traumatic brain injury in children and adult patients

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Several studies have indicated that younger age is associated with worse recovery after pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) compared to elder children. In order to verify this association between long-term outcome after moderate to severe TBI and patient’s age, direct comparison between different pediatric age groups as well as an adult population was performed. Methods This investigation represents a retrospective cohort study at a level I trauma center including patients with moderate to severe, isolated TBI with a minimum follow-up of 10 years. According to their age at time of injury, patients were divided in pre-school (0–7 years), school (8–17 years) and adult (18–65 years) patients. Physical examination and standardized questionnaire on physical and psychological aspects (Glasgow Outcome Scale, Barthel Index, Impact of Event Scale, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, short form 12) were performed. Results 135 traumatized patients were included. Physical and psychological long-term outcome was associated with injury severity but not with patients’ age at time of injury. Outcome recovery measured by Glasgow Outcome Scale was demonstrated with best results for pre-school aged children (p = 0.009). According to the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale an increased incidence of anxiety (p = 0.010) and depression (p = 0.026) was evaluated in older patients. Conclusion Long-term outcome perceptions after moderate to severe TBI presented in this study question current views of deteriorated recovery for the immature brain. The sustained TBI impact seemed not to reduce the child’s ability to overcome the suffered impairment measured by questionnaire based psychological, physical and health related outcome scores. These results distinguish the relevance of rehabilitation and family support in the long term. PMID:24571742

Long-term variability of T Tauri stars using WASP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigon, Laura; Scholz, Alexander; Anderson, David; West, Richard

2017-03-01

We present a reference study of the long-term optical variability of young stars using data from the WASP project. Our primary sample is a group of well-studied classical T Tauri stars (CTTSs), mostly in Taurus-Auriga. WASP light curves cover time-scales of up to 7 yr and typically contain 10 000-30 000 data points. We quantify the variability as a function of time-scale using the time-dependent standard deviation 'pooled sigma'. We find that the overwhelming majority of CTTSs have a low-level variability with σ < 0.3 mag dominated by time-scales of a few weeks, consistent with rotational modulation. Thus, for most young stars, monitoring over a month is sufficient to constrain the total amount of variability over time-scales of up to a decade. The fraction of stars with a strong optical variability (σ > 0.3 mag) is 21 per cent in our sample and 21 per cent in an unbiased control sample. An even smaller fraction (13 per cent in our sample, 6 per cent in the control) show evidence for an increase in variability amplitude as a function of time-scale from weeks to months or years. The presence of long-term variability correlates with the spectral slope at 3-5 μm, which is an indicator of inner disc geometry, and with the U-B band slope, which is an accretion diagnostics. This shows that the long-term variations in CTTSs are predominantly driven by processes in the inner disc and in the accretion zone. Four of the stars with long-term variations show periods of 20-60 d, significantly longer than the rotation periods and stable over months to years. One possible explanation is cyclic changes in the interaction between the disc and the stellar magnetic field.

Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

PubMed

Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

2005-09-01

We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

Assessment of genetic and epigenetic variation during long-term Taxus cell culture.

PubMed

Fu, Chunhua; Li, Liqin; Wu, Wenjuan; Li, Maoteng; Yu, Xiaoqing; Yu, Longjiang

2012-07-01

Gradual loss of secondary metabolite production is a common obstacle in the development of a large-scale plant cell production system. In this study, cell morphology, paclitaxel (Taxol®) biosynthetic ability, and genetic and epigenetic variations in the long-term culture of Taxus media cv Hicksii cells were assessed over a 5-year period to evaluate the mechanisms of the loss of secondary metabolites biosynthesis capacity in Taxus cell. The results revealed that morphological variations, gradual loss of paclitaxel yield and decreased transcriptional level of paclitaxel biosynthesis key genes occurred during long-term subculture. Genetic and epigenetic variations in these cultures were also studied at different times during culture using amplified fragment-length polymorphism (AFLP), methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP), and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analyses. A total of 32 primer combinations were used in AFLP amplification, and none of the AFLP loci were found to be polymorphic, thus no major genetic rearrangements were detected in any of the tested samples. However, results from both MSAP and HPLC indicated that there was a higher level of DNA methylation in the low-paclitaxel yielding cell line after long-term culture. Based on these results, we proposed that accumulation of paclitaxel in Taxus cell cultures might be regulated by DNA methylation. To our knowledge, this is the first report of increased methylation with the prolongation of culture time in Taxus cell culture. It provides substantial clues for exploring the gradual loss of the taxol biosynthesis capacity of Taxus cell lines during long-term subculture. DNA methylation maybe involved in the regulation of paclitaxel biosynthesis in Taxus cell culture.

Bio-inspired wooden actuators for large scale applications.

PubMed

Rüggeberg, Markus; Burgert, Ingo

2015-01-01

Implementing programmable actuation into materials and structures is a major topic in the field of smart materials. In particular the bilayer principle has been employed to develop actuators that respond to various kinds of stimuli. A multitude of small scale applications down to micrometer size have been developed, but up-scaling remains challenging due to either limitations in mechanical stiffness of the material or in the manufacturing processes. Here, we demonstrate the actuation of wooden bilayers in response to changes in relative humidity, making use of the high material stiffness and a good machinability to reach large scale actuation and application. Amplitude and response time of the actuation were measured and can be predicted and controlled by adapting the geometry and the constitution of the bilayers. Field tests in full weathering conditions revealed long-term stability of the actuation. The potential of the concept is shown by a first demonstrator. With the sensor and actuator intrinsically incorporated in the wooden bilayers, the daily change in relative humidity is exploited for an autonomous and solar powered movement of a tracker for solar modules.

Bio-Inspired Wooden Actuators for Large Scale Applications

PubMed Central

Rüggeberg, Markus; Burgert, Ingo

2015-01-01

Implementing programmable actuation into materials and structures is a major topic in the field of smart materials. In particular the bilayer principle has been employed to develop actuators that respond to various kinds of stimuli. A multitude of small scale applications down to micrometer size have been developed, but up-scaling remains challenging due to either limitations in mechanical stiffness of the material or in the manufacturing processes. Here, we demonstrate the actuation of wooden bilayers in response to changes in relative humidity, making use of the high material stiffness and a good machinability to reach large scale actuation and application. Amplitude and response time of the actuation were measured and can be predicted and controlled by adapting the geometry and the constitution of the bilayers. Field tests in full weathering conditions revealed long-term stability of the actuation. The potential of the concept is shown by a first demonstrator. With the sensor and actuator intrinsically incorporated in the wooden bilayers, the daily change in relative humidity is exploited for an autonomous and solar powered movement of a tracker for solar modules. PMID:25835386

Biological hierarchies and the nature of extinction.

PubMed

Congreve, Curtis R; Falk, Amanda R; Lamsdell, James C

2018-05-01

Hierarchy theory recognises that ecological and evolutionary units occur in a nested and interconnected hierarchical system, with cascading effects occurring between hierarchical levels. Different biological disciplines have routinely come into conflict over the primacy of different forcing mechanisms behind evolutionary and ecological change. These disconnects arise partly from differences in perspective (with some researchers favouring ecological forcing mechanisms while others favour developmental/historical mechanisms), as well as differences in the temporal framework in which workers operate. In particular, long-term palaeontological data often show that large-scale (macro) patterns of evolution are predominantly dictated by shifts in the abiotic environment, while short-term (micro) modern biological studies stress the importance of biotic interactions. We propose that thinking about ecological and evolutionary interactions in a hierarchical framework is a fruitful way to resolve these conflicts. Hierarchy theory suggests that changes occurring at lower hierarchical levels can have unexpected, complex effects at higher scales due to emergent interactions between simple systems. In this way, patterns occurring on short- and long-term time scales are equally valid, as changes that are driven from lower levels will manifest in different forms at higher levels. We propose that the dual hierarchy framework fits well with our current understanding of evolutionary and ecological theory. Furthermore, we describe how this framework can be used to understand major extinction events better. Multi-generational attritional loss of reproductive fitness (MALF) has recently been proposed as the primary mechanism behind extinction events, whereby extinction is explainable solely through processes that result in extirpation of populations through a shutdown of reproduction. While not necessarily explicit, the push to explain extinction through solely population-level dynamics could be used to suggest that environmentally mediated patterns of extinction or slowed speciation across geological time are largely artefacts of poor preservation or a coarse temporal scale. We demonstrate how MALF fits into a hierarchical framework, showing that MALF can be a primary forcing mechanism at lower scales that still results in differential survivorship patterns at the species and clade level which vary depending upon the initial environmental forcing mechanism. Thus, even if MALF is the primary mechanism of extinction across all mass extinction events, the primary environmental cause of these events will still affect the system and result in differential responses. Therefore, patterns at both temporal scales are relevant. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Evaluation of cognitive and social functioning in patients requiring long-term inpatient psychiatric care using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health: a large-scale, multi-institutional observational study.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, Hideaki; Taguchi, Masamoto; Sukigara, Masune; Sakuragi, Shoji; Sugiyama, Naoya; Chiba, Hisomu; Kawasaki, Tatsuhito

2017-06-15

We comprehensively evaluated cognitive and social functioning in patients requiring long-term inpatient psychiatric care using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health. We surveyed 1967 patients receiving long-term inpatient psychiatric care. Patients were further categorized into an old long-stay group (n = 892, >5 years in hospitals) and a new long-stay group (n = 1075, 1-5 years in hospitals). We obtained responses for all the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health items in domain b (Body Functions) and domain d (Activities and Participation). We estimated weighted means for each item using the propensity score to adjust for confounding factors. Responses were received from 307 hospitals (response rate of hospitals: 25.5%). Cognitive and social functioning in the old long-stay group was more severely impaired than in the new long-stay group. No statistically significant differences were observed regarding the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health items associated with basic activities of daily living between the two groups. Combined therapy consisting of cognitive remediation and rehabilitation on social functioning for this patient population should be started from the early stage of hospitalization. Non-restrictive, independent environments may also be optimal for this patient population. Implications for rehabilitation Rehabilitation of cognitive and social functioning for patients requiring long-term inpatient psychiatric care should be started in the early stages of hospitalization. In psychiatric fields, the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health checklist could facilitate individualized rehabilitation planning by allowing healthcare professionals to visually assess the comprehensive functioning of each patient using graphics such as radar charts.

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Dye Sensitized Solar Cells for Economically Viable Photovoltaic Systems.

PubMed

Jung, Hyun Suk; Lee, Jung-Kun

2013-05-16

TiO2 nanoparticle-based dye sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) have attracted a significant level of scientific and technological interest for their potential as economically viable photovoltaic devices. While DSSCs have multiple benefits such as material abundance, a short energy payback period, constant power output, and compatibility with flexible applications, there are still several challenges that hold back large scale commercialization. Critical factors determining the future of DSSCs involve energy conversion efficiency, long-term stability, and production cost. Continuous advancement of their long-term stability suggests that state-of-the-art DSSCs will operate for over 20 years without a significant decrease in performance. Nevertheless, key questions remain in regards to energy conversion efficiency improvements and material cost reduction. In this Perspective, the present state of the field and the ongoing efforts to address the requirements of DSSCs are summarized with views on the future of DSSCs.

Chemical stabilization of metals and arsenic in contaminated soils using oxides--a review.

PubMed

Komárek, Michael; Vaněk, Aleš; Ettler, Vojtěch

2013-01-01

Oxides and their precursors have been extensively studied, either singly or in combination with other amendments promoting sorption, for in situ stabilization of metals and As in contaminated soils. This remediation option aims at reducing the available fraction of metal(loid)s, notably in the root zone, and thus lowering the risks associated with their leaching, ecotoxicity, plant uptake and human exposure. This review summarizes literature data on mechanisms involved in the immobilization process and presents results from laboratory and field experiments, including the subsequent influence on higher plants and aided phytostabilization. Despite the partial successes in the field, recent knowledge highlights the importance of long-term and large-scale field studies evaluating the stability of the oxide-based amendments in the treated soils and their efficiency in the long-term. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon nanocages: a new support material for Pt catalyst with remarkably high durability.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao Xia; Tan, Zhe Hua; Zeng, Min; Wang, Jian Nong

2014-03-24

Low durability is the major challenge hindering the large-scale implementation of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) technology, and corrosion of carbon support materials of current catalysts is the main cause. Here, we describe the finding of remarkably high durability with the use of a novel support material. This material is based on hollow carbon nanocages developed with a high degree of graphitization and concurrent nitrogen doping for oxidation resistance enhancement, uniform deposition of fine Pt particles, and strong Pt-support interaction. Accelerated degradation testing shows that such designed catalyst possesses a superior electrochemical activity and long-term stability for both hydrogen oxidation and oxygen reduction relative to industry benchmarks of current catalysts. Further testing under conditions of practical fuel cell operation reveals almost no degradation over long-term cycling. Such a catalyst of high activity, particularly, high durability, opens the door for the next-generation PEMFC for "real world" application.

Morphological response of a large-scale coastal blowout to a strong magnitude transport event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado-Fernandez, Irene; Jackson, Derek; Smith, Alexander; Smyth, Thomas

2017-04-01

Large-scale blowouts are fundamental features of many coastal dune fields in temperate areas around the world. These distinctive erosional (mostly unvegetated) landform features are often characterised by a significant depression area and a connected depositional lobe at their downwind edges. These areas also provide important transport corridors to inland parts of the dune system and can provide ideal habitats for specialist flora and fauna as well as helping to enhance landscape diversity. The actual morphology and shape/size of blowouts can significantly modify the overlying atmospheric boundary layer of the wind, influencing wind flow steering and intensity within the blowout, and ultimately aeolian sediment transport. While investigations of morphological changes within blowouts have largely focused on the medium (months) to long (annual/decadal) temporal scale, studies of aeolian transport dynamics within blowouts have predominantly focused on the short-term (event) scale. Work on wind-transport processes in blowouts is still relatively rare, with ad-hoc studies providing only limited information on airflow and aeolian transport. Large-scale blowouts are characterised by elongated basins that can reach hundreds of meters, potentially resulting in airflow and transport dynamics that are very different from their smaller scale counterparts. This research focuses on a short-term, strong wind event measured at the Devil's Hole blowout (Sefton dunes, NW England), a large-scale blowout feature approximately 300 m in length and 100 m in width. In situ measurements of airflow and aeolian transport were collected during a short-term experiment on the 22nd October 2015. A total of twenty three, 3D ultrasonic anemometers, sand traps, and wenglor sensors were deployed in a spatial grid covering the distal end of the basin, walls, and depositional lobe. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) was used to quantify morphological changes within the blowout before and after the strong magnitude transport event. This allowed, for the first time, examination of the morphological response as a direct result of a high energy wind event as it passes through a large-scale blowout. Results indicate strong steering and acceleration of the wind along the blowout basin and up the south wall opposite to the incident regional winds. These accelerated flows generated very strong transport rates of up to 3 g/s along the basin, and moderate strong transport rates of up to 1.5 g/s up the steep north wall. The coupling of high-frequency wind events and transport response together with topographic changes defined by TLS data allows, for the first time, the ability to co-connect the morphological evolution of a coastal blowout landform with the localised driving processes.

A Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Reconstruction in the Taihe Mountains Using Tree-Ring Widths for the Last 283 Years.

PubMed

Ma, Yongyong; Liu, Yu; Song, Huiming; Sun, Junyan; Lei, Ying; Wang, Yanchao

2015-01-01

Tree-ring samples from Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) that were collected in the Taihe Mountains on the western Loess Plateau, China, were used to analyze the effects of climate and drought on radial growth and to reconstruct the mean April-June Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) during the period 1730-2012 AD. Precipitation positively affected tree growth primarily during wet seasons, while temperature negatively affected tree growth during dry seasons. Tree growth responded positively to SPEI at long time scales most likely because the trees were able to withstand water deficits but lacked a rapid response to drought. The 10-month scale SPEI was chosen for further drought reconstruction. A calibration model for the period 1951-2011 explained 51% of the variance in the modeled SPEI data. Our SPEI reconstruction revealed long-term patterns of drought variability and captured some significant drought events, including the severe drought of 1928-1930 and the clear drying trend since the 1950s which were widespread across northern China. The reconstruction was also consistent with two other reconstructions on the western Loess Plateau at both interannual and decadal scales. The reconstructed SPEI series showed synchronous variations with the drought/wetness indices and spatial correlation analyses indicated that this reconstruction could be representative of large-scale SPEI variability in northern China. Period analysis discovered 128-year, 25-year, 2.62-year, 2.36-year, and 2.04-year cycles in this reconstruction. The time-dependency of the growth response to drought should be considered in further studies of the community dynamics. The SPEI reconstruction improves the sparse network of long-term climate records for an enhanced understanding of climatic variability on the western Loess Plateau, China.

A Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Reconstruction in the Taihe Mountains Using Tree-Ring Widths for the Last 283 Years

PubMed Central

Ma, Yongyong; Liu, Yu; Song, Huiming; Sun, Junyan; Lei, Ying; Wang, Yanchao

2015-01-01

Tree-ring samples from Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) that were collected in the Taihe Mountains on the western Loess Plateau, China, were used to analyze the effects of climate and drought on radial growth and to reconstruct the mean April-June Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) during the period 1730–2012 AD. Precipitation positively affected tree growth primarily during wet seasons, while temperature negatively affected tree growth during dry seasons. Tree growth responded positively to SPEI at long time scales most likely because the trees were able to withstand water deficits but lacked a rapid response to drought. The 10-month scale SPEI was chosen for further drought reconstruction. A calibration model for the period 1951–2011 explained 51% of the variance in the modeled SPEI data. Our SPEI reconstruction revealed long-term patterns of drought variability and captured some significant drought events, including the severe drought of 1928–1930 and the clear drying trend since the 1950s which were widespread across northern China. The reconstruction was also consistent with two other reconstructions on the western Loess Plateau at both interannual and decadal scales. The reconstructed SPEI series showed synchronous variations with the drought/wetness indices and spatial correlation analyses indicated that this reconstruction could be representative of large-scale SPEI variability in northern China. Period analysis discovered 128-year, 25-year, 2.62-year, 2.36-year, and 2.04-year cycles in this reconstruction. The time-dependency of the growth response to drought should be considered in further studies of the community dynamics. The SPEI reconstruction improves the sparse network of long-term climate records for an enhanced understanding of climatic variability on the western Loess Plateau, China. PMID:26207621

Changes in US extreme sea levels and the role of large scale climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Chambers, D. P.

2015-12-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multi-decadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extra-tropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multi-decadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis approach we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (RWLs; 50 to 200 year return periods) ranging from ~10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. To explore the origin of these temporal changes and the role of large-scale climate variability we develop different sets of simple and multiple linear regression models with RWLs as dependent variables and climate indices, or tailored (toward the goal of predicting multi-decadal RWL changes) versions of them, and wind stress curl as independent predictors. The models, after being tested for spatial and temporal stability, explain up to 97% of the observed variability at individual sites and almost 80% on average. Using the model predictions as covariates for the quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis also significantly reduces the range of change in the 100-year RWLs over time, turning a non-stationary process into a stationary one. This highlights that the models - when used with regional and global climate model output of the predictors - should also be capable of projecting future RWL changes to be used by decision makers for improved flood preparedness and long-term resiliency.

Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong;

Using environmental tracer data to identify deep-aquifer, long-term flow patterns and recharge distributions in the Surat Basin, Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siade, A. J.; Suckow, A. O.; Morris, R.; Raiber, M.; Prommer, H.

2017-12-01

The calibration of regional groundwater flow models, including those investigating coal-seam gas (CSG) impacts in the Surat Basin, Australia, are not typically constrained using environmental tracers, although the use of such data can potentially provide significant reductions in predictive uncertainties. These additional sources of information can also improve the conceptualisation of flow systems and the quantification of groundwater fluxes. In this study, new multi-tracer data (14C, 39Ar, 81Kr, and 36Cl) were collected for the eastern recharge areas of the basin and within the deeper Hutton and Precipice Sandstone formations to complement existing environmental tracer data. These data were used to better understand the recharge mechanisms, recharge rates and the hydraulic properties associated with deep aquifer systems in the Surat Basin. Together with newly acquired pressure data documenting the response to the large-scale reinjection of highly treated CSG co-produced water, the environmental tracer data helped to improve the conceptualisation of the aquifer system, forming the basis for a more robust quantification of the long-term impacts of CSG-related activities. An existing regional scale MODFLOW-USG groundwater flow model of the area was used as the basis for our analysis of existing and new observation data. A variety of surrogate modelling approaches were used to develop simplified models that focussed on the flow and transport behaviour of the deep aquifer systems. These surrogate models were able to represent sub-system behaviour in terms of flow, multi-environmental tracer transport and the observed large-scale hydrogeochemical patterns. The incorporation of the environmental tracer data into the modelling framework provide an improved understanding of the flow regimes of the deeper aquifer systems as well as valuable information on how to reduce uncertainties in hydraulic properties where there is little or no historical observations of hydraulic heads.

24 h urinary free cortisol in large-scale epidemiological studies: short-term and long-term stability and sources of variability.

PubMed

Rosmalen, Judith G M; Kema, Ido P; Wüst, Stefan; van der Ley, Claude; Visser, Sipke T; Snieder, Harold; Bakker, Stephan J L

2014-09-01

Function of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis has been associated with several somatic and psychiatric health problems. The amount of free cortisol excreted in the urine during 24h (24-h UFC) has often been used as a proxy for HPA-axis function. Reference values for 24-h UFC and their stability in the short and long term, as well as sources of variability, are largely lacking. This study was performed in a general population cohort. Participants collected 24-h UFC on two consecutive days (T1), and repeated this collection approximately 2 years later (T2). Cortisol in urine was measured using LC-MS/MS. Height and weight were measured at the research facilities; glomerular filtration rate was estimated using creatinine clearance. Psychological distress (General Health Questionnaire), smoking, alcohol use and exercise were measured by means of questionnaires. 24-h UFC stability on a day-to-day basis was 0.69 (T1, N=1192) and 0.72 (T2, N=963) (both p<0.001). Long-term stability as indicated by correlation between 2-day averages of T1 and T2 was 0.60 (N=972, p<0.001). Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed that 24-h UFC was predicted by urine volume (standardized beta 0.282 (T1, N=1556) and 0.276 (T2, N=1244); both p<0.001) and glomerular filtration rate (standardized beta 0.137 (T1) and 0.179 (T2); both p<0.001), while also sex explained a small part (standardized beta for female sex -0.057 (T1) and -0.080 (T2); both p<0.05). 24-h UFC is moderately stable both in the short and the long term. The effects of urine volume and glomerular filtration rate on 24-h UFC are much stronger than those of sex. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tamarisk biocontrol using tamarisk beetles: Potential consequences for riparian birds in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Eben H.; Theimer, Tad C.; Sogge, Mark K.

2011-01-01

The tamarisk beetle (Diorhabda spp.), a non-native biocontrol agent, has been introduced to eradicate tamarisk (Tamarix spp.), a genus of non-native tree that has become a dominant component of riparian woodlands in the southwestern United States. Tamarisk beetles have the potential to spread widely and defoliate large expanses of tamarisk habitat, but the effects of such a widespread loss of riparian vegetation on birds remains unknown. We reviewed literature on the effects of other defoliating insects on birds to investigate the potential for tamarisk beetles to affect birds positively or negatively by changing food abundance and vegetation structure. We then combined data on the temporal patterns of tamarisk defoliation by beetles with nest productivity of a well-studied riparian obligate, the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus), to simulate the potential demographic consequences of beetle defoliation on breeding riparian birds in both the short and long term. Our results highlight that the effects of tamarisk biocontrol on birds will likely vary by species and population, depending upon its sensitivity to seasonal defoliation by beetles and net loss of riparian habitat due to tamarisk mortality. Species with restricted distributions that include areas dominated by tamarisk may be negatively affected both in the short and long term. The rate of regeneration and/or restoration of native cottonwoods (Populus spp.) and willows (Salix spp.) relative to the rate of tamarisk loss will be critical in determining the long-term effect of this large-scale ecological experiment.

Persistence of Soil Organic Carbon can be Explained as an Emergent Property of Microbial Ecology and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolf, D.; Lehmann, J.

2016-12-01

The exchange of carbon between soils and the atmosphere represents an important uncertainty in climate predictions. Current Earth system models apply soil organic matter (SOM) models based on independent carbon pools with 1st order decomposition dynamics. It has been widely argued over the last decade that such models do not accurately describe soil processes and mechanisms. For example, the long term persistence of soil organic carbon (SOC) is only adequately described by such models by the post hoc assumption of passive or inert carbon pools. Further, such 1st order models also fail to account for microbially-mediated dynamics such as priming interactions. These shortcomings may limit their applicability to long term predictions under conditions of global environmental change. In addition to incorporating recent conceptual advances in the mechanisms of SOM decomposition and protection, next-generation SOM models intended for use in Earth system models need to meet further quality criteria. Namely, that they should (a) accurately describe historical data from long term trials and the current global distribution of soil organic carbon, (b) be computationally efficient for large number of iterations involved in climate modeling, and (c) have sufficiently simple parameterization that they can be run on spatially-explicit data available at global scale under varying conditions of global change over long time scales. Here we show that linking fundamental ecological principles and microbial population dynamics to SOC turnover rates results in a dynamic model that meets all of these quality criteria. This approach simultaneously eliminates the need to postulate biogeochemically-implausible passive or inert pools, instead showing how SOM persistence emerges from ecological principles, while also reproducing observed priming interactions.

Ten-year monitoring of high-rise building columns using long-gauge fiber optic sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glisic, B.; Inaudi, D.; Lau, J. M.; Fong, C. C.

2013-05-01

A large-scale lifetime building monitoring program was implemented in Singapore in 2001. The monitoring aims of this unique program were to increase safety, verify performance, control quality, increase knowledge, optimize maintenance costs, and evaluate the condition of the structures after a hazardous event. The first instrumented building, which has now been monitored for more than ten years, is presented in this paper. The long-gauge fiber optic strain sensors were embedded in fresh concrete of ground-level columns, thus the monitoring started at the birth of both the construction material and the structure. Measurement sessions were performed during construction, upon completion of each new story and the roof, and after the construction, i.e., in-service. Based on results it was possible to follow and evaluate long-term behavior of the building through every stage of its life. The results of monitoring were analyzed at a local (column) and global (building) level. Over-dimensioning of one column was identified. Differential settlement of foundations was detected, localized, and its magnitude estimated. Post-tremor analysis was performed. Real long-term behavior of concrete columns was assessed. Finally, the long-term performance of the monitoring system was evaluated. The researched monitoring method, monitoring system, rich results gathered over approximately ten years, data analysis algorithms, and the conclusions on the structural behavior and health condition of the building based on monitoring are presented in this paper.

Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

Long-Term Citizen-Collected Data Reveal Geographical Patterns and Temporal Trends in Lake Water Clarity

PubMed Central

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Norton Henry, Emily; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity. PMID:24788722

Subgrid-scale models for large-eddy simulation of rotating turbulent channel flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvis, Maurits H.; Bae, Hyunji Jane; Trias, F. Xavier; Abkar, Mahdi; Moin, Parviz; Verstappen, Roel

2017-11-01

We aim to design subgrid-scale models for large-eddy simulation of rotating turbulent flows. Rotating turbulent flows form a challenging test case for large-eddy simulation due to the presence of the Coriolis force. The Coriolis force conserves the total kinetic energy while transporting it from small to large scales of motion, leading to the formation of large-scale anisotropic flow structures. The Coriolis force may also cause partial flow laminarization and the occurrence of turbulent bursts. Many subgrid-scale models for large-eddy simulation are, however, primarily designed to parametrize the dissipative nature of turbulent flows, ignoring the specific characteristics of transport processes. We, therefore, propose a new subgrid-scale model that, in addition to the usual dissipative eddy viscosity term, contains a nondissipative nonlinear model term designed to capture transport processes, such as those due to rotation. We show that the addition of this nonlinear model term leads to improved predictions of the energy spectra of rotating homogeneous isotropic turbulence as well as of the Reynolds stress anisotropy in spanwise-rotating plane-channel flows. This work is financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) under Project Number 613.001.212.

Discovery, Controls, and Hazards of Widespread Deep-Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation in the Etsumi Mountains, Central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneda, Heitaro; Kono, Taiyo

2017-12-01

Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) is a largely unnoticed but important long-term mass wasting process that may result in catastrophic failure of mountain slopes. Manifested by small topographic irregularities such as ridge-parallel scarps and linear depressions, it has been predominantly reported in alpine landscapes above timber lines. On the basis of area-wide high-resolution topographic data acquired by light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys, we here show that 96% of existing gravitational scarps have been hidden under forest canopies in the Etsumi Mountains, central Japan. The scarps are surprisingly widespread over the mountains with a mean line density of as large as 0.87 km/km2. Our analyses of the scarp distribution suggest that uphill-facing scarps are primary geomorphic signals of DSGSD with a destabilized rock mass larger than 105 m2, whereas downhill-facing scarps principally occur in response to more localized slope deformation. In terms of controls, topography is by far the most influential factor in triggering and promoting DSGSD. Despite the M 7.5 earthquake in 1891, impact of large local earthquakes proves to be not very strong. Comparison with preexisting landslide maps further suggests that DSGSD and large-scale landslides are not different slope processes but represent different stages of the same process. Our results highlight limitations of aerial-photograph interpretation in forest-covered mountains and the need for lidar-assisted mapping for deeper understanding of this long-term process and interactions between surface and tectonic processes.

Salting our freshwater lakes.

PubMed

Dugan, Hilary A; Bartlett, Sarah L; Burke, Samantha M; Doubek, Jonathan P; Krivak-Tetley, Flora E; Skaff, Nicholas K; Summers, Jamie C; Farrell, Kaitlin J; McCullough, Ian M; Morales-Williams, Ana M; Roberts, Derek C; Ouyang, Zutao; Scordo, Facundo; Hanson, Paul C; Weathers, Kathleen C

2017-04-25

The highest densities of lakes on Earth are in north temperate ecosystems, where increasing urbanization and associated chloride runoff can salinize freshwaters and threaten lake water quality and the many ecosystem services lakes provide. However, the extent to which lake salinity may be changing at broad spatial scales remains unknown, leading us to first identify spatial patterns and then investigate the drivers of these patterns. Significant decadal trends in lake salinization were identified using a dataset of long-term chloride concentrations from 371 North American lakes. Landscape and climate metrics calculated for each site demonstrated that impervious land cover was a strong predictor of chloride trends in Northeast and Midwest North American lakes. As little as 1% impervious land cover surrounding a lake increased the likelihood of long-term salinization. Considering that 27% of large lakes in the United States have >1% impervious land cover around their perimeters, the potential for steady and long-term salinization of these aquatic systems is high. This study predicts that many lakes will exceed the aquatic life threshold criterion for chronic chloride exposure (230 mg L -1 ), stipulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in the next 50 y if current trends continue.

Long-term Trends and Variability of Eddy Activities in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; von Storch, H.

2017-12-01

For constructing empirical downscaling models and projecting possible future states of eddy activities in the South China Sea (SCS), long-term statistical characteristics of the SCS eddy are needed. We use a daily global eddy-resolving model product named STORM covering the period of 1950-2010. This simulation has employed the MPI-OM model with a mean horizontal resolution of 10km and been driven by the NCEP reanalysis-1 data set. An eddy detection and tracking algorithm operating on the gridded sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) fields was developed. A set of parameters for the criteria in the SCS are determined through sensitivity tests. Our method detected more than 6000 eddy tracks in the South China Sea. For all of them, eddy diameters, track length, eddy intensity, eddy lifetime and eddy frequency were determined. The long-term trends and variability of those properties also has been derived. Most of the eddies propagate westward. Nearly 100 eddies travel longer than 1000km, and over 800 eddies have a lifespan of more than 2 months. Furthermore, for building the statistical empirical model, the relationship between the SCS eddy statistics and the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has been investigated.

Hydro-climatic forcing of dissolved organic carbon in two boreal lakes of Canada.

PubMed

Diodato, Nazzareno; Higgins, Scott; Bellocchi, Gianni; Fiorillo, Francesco; Romano, Nunzio; Guadagno, Francesco M

2016-11-15

The boreal forest of the northern hemisphere represents one of the world's largest ecozones and contains nearly one third of the world's intact forests and terrestrially stored carbon. Long-term variations in temperature and precipitation have been implied in altering carbon cycling in forest soils, including increased fluxes to receiving waters. In this study, we use a simple hydrologic model and a 40-year dataset (1971-2010) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from two pristine boreal lakes (ELA, Canada) to examine the interactions between precipitation and landscape-scale controls of DOC production and export from forest catchments to surface waters. Our results indicate that a simplified hydrologically-based conceptual model can enable the long-term temporal patterns of DOC fluxes to be captured within boreal landscapes. Reconstructed DOC exports from forested catchments in the period 1901-2012 follow largely a sinusoidal pattern, with a period of about 37years and are tightly linked to multi-decadal patterns of precipitation. By combining our model with long-term precipitation estimates, we found no evidence of increasing DOC transport or in-lake concentrations through the 20th century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The long-range correlation and evolution law of centennial-scale temperatures in Northeast China.

PubMed

Zheng, Xiaohui; Lian, Yi; Wang, Qiguang

2018-01-01

This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system's predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation.

Short and long-term energy intake patterns and their implications for human body weight regulation.

PubMed

Chow, Carson C; Hall, Kevin D

2014-07-01

Adults consume millions of kilocalories over the course of a few years, but the typical weight gain amounts to only a few thousand kilocalories of stored energy. Furthermore, food intake is highly variable from day to day and yet body weight is remarkably stable. These facts have been used as evidence to support the hypothesis that human body weight is regulated by active control of food intake operating on both short and long time scales. Here, we demonstrate that active control of human food intake on short time scales is not required for body weight stability and that the current evidence for long term control of food intake is equivocal. To provide more data on this issue, we emphasize the urgent need for developing new methods for accurately measuring energy intake changes over long time scales. We propose that repeated body weight measurements can be used along with mathematical modeling to calculate long-term changes in energy intake and thereby quantify adherence to a diet intervention and provide dynamic feedback to individuals that seek to control their body weight. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Short and long-term energy intake patterns and their implications for human body weight regulation

PubMed Central

Chow, Carson C.; Hall, Kevin D.

2014-01-01

Adults consume millions of kilocalories over the course of a few years, but the typical weight gain amounts to only a few thousand kilocalories of stored energy. Furthermore, food intake is highly variable from day to day and yet body weight is remarkably stable. These facts have been used as evidence to support the hypothesis that human body weight is regulated by active control of food intake operating on both short and long time scales. Here, we demonstrate that active control of human food intake on short time scales is not required for body weight stability and that the current evidence for long term control of food intake is equivocal. To provide more data on this issue, we emphasize the urgent need for developing new methods for accurately measuring energy intake changes over long time scales. We propose that repeated body weight measurements can be used along with mathematical modeling to calculate long-term changes in energy intake and thereby quantify adherence to a diet intervention and provide dynamic feedback to individuals that seek to control their body weight. PMID:24582679

Long-term coastal measurements for large-scale climate trends characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomaro, Angela; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero

2017-04-01

Multi-decadal time-series of observational wave data beginning in the late 1970's are relatively rare. The present study refers to the analysis of the 37-year long directional wave time-series recorded between 1979 and 2015 at the CNR-ISMAR (Institute of Marine Sciences of the Italian National Research Council) "Acqua Alta" oceanographic research tower, located in the Northern Adriatic Sea, 15 km offshore the Venice lagoon, on 16 m depth. The extent of the time series allows to exploit its content not only for modelling purposes or short-term statistical analyses, but also at the climatological scale thanks to the peculiar meteorological and oceanographic aspects of the coastal area where this relevant infrastructure has been installed. We explore the dataset both to characterize the local average climate and its variability, and to detect the possible long-term trends that might be suggestive of, or emphasize, large scale circulation patterns and trends. Measured data are essential for the assessment, and often for the calibration, of model data, generally, if long enough, also the reference also for climate studies. By applying this analysis to an area well characterized from the meteorological point of view, we first assess the changes in time based on measured data, and then we compare them to the ones derived from the ERA-Interim regional simulation over the same area, thus showing the strong improvement that is still needed to get reliable climate models projections on coastal areas and the Mediterranean Region as a whole. Moreover, long term hindcast aiming at climatic considerations are well known for 1) underestimating, if their resolution is not high enough, the actual wave heights as well as for 2) being strongly affected by different conditions over time that are likely to introduce spurious trends of variable magnitude. In particular the different amount, in time, of assimilated data by the hindcast models, directly and indirectly affects the results, making it difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish the imposed effects from the climate signal itself, as demonstrated by Aarnes et al. (2015). From this point of view the problem is that long-term measured datasets are relatively unique, due to the cost and technical difficulty of maintaining fixed instrumental equipment over time, as well as of assuring the homogeneity and availability of the entire dataset. For this reason we are furthermore working on the publication of the quality controlled dataset to make it widely available for open-access research purposes. The analysis and homogenization of the original dataset has actually required a substantial part of the time spent on the study, because of the strong impact that the quality of the data may have on the final result. We consider this particularly relevant, especially when referring to coastal areas, where the lack of reliable satellite data makes it difficult to improve the model capability to resolve the local peculiar oceanographic processes. We describe in detail any step and procedure used in producing the data, including full descriptions of the experimental design, data acquisition assays, and any computational processing needed to support the technical quality of the dataset.

InSAR and GPS Time Series Analysis in Areas with Large Scale Hydrological Deformation: Separating Signal From Noise at Varying Length Scales in the San Joaquin Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, K. D.; Lohman, R.

2017-12-01

Areas of large-scale subsidence are observed over much of the San Joaquin Valley of California due to the extraction of groundwater and hydrocarbons from the subsurface.These signals span regions with spatial extents of up to 100 km and have rates of up to 45 cm/yr or more. InSAR and GPS are complementary methods commonly used to measure such ground displacements and can provide important constraints on crustal deformation models, support groundwater studies, and inform water resource management efforts. However, current standard methods for processing these data sets and creating displacement time series are suboptimal for the deformation observed in areas like the San Joaquin Valley because (1) the ground surface properties are constantly changing due largely to agricultural activity, resulting in low coherence in half or more of a SAR frame, and (2) the deformation signals are distributed throughout the SAR frames, and are comparable to the size of the frames themselves. Therefore, referencing areas of deformation to non-deforming areas and correcting for long wavelength signals (e.g. atmospheric delays, orbital errors) is particularly difficult. We address these challenges by exploiting pixels that are stable in space and time, and use them for weighted spatial averaging and selective filtering before unwrapping. We then compare a range of methods for both long wavelength corrections and referencing via automatic partitioning of non-deforming areas, then benchmark results against continuous GPS measurements. Our final time series consist of nearly 15 years of displacement measurements from continuous GPS data, and Envisat, ALOS-1, Sentinel SAR data, and show significant temporal and spatial variations. We find that the choice of reference and long wavelength corrections can significantly bias long-term rate and seasonal amplitude estimates, causing variations of as much as 100% of the mean estimate. As we enter an era with free and open data access and regular observations plans from missions such as NISAR and the Sentinel constellation, our approach will help users evaluate the significance of observed deformation at a range of spatial scales and in areas with challenging surface properties.

Three large-scale changes to the Medicare program could curb its costs but also reduce enrollment

PubMed Central

Eibner, Christine; Goldman, Dana P.; Sullivan, Jeffrey; Garber, Alan M.

2013-01-01

Medicare spending accounts for a substantial fraction of Federal spending, and significant program changes may be necessary for long-run fiscal balance. We used a microsimulation approach to estimate how benefit changes to Medicare–including Part A, for hospital care, premiums, premium support credits, and changing the eligibility age–affect long-term Medicare spending and enrollment. All policies considered reduce spending, with reductions ranging from 2.4 to 24 percent between 2012 and 2036. However, the policies also reduce coverage among the elderly. To achieve significant costs savings without causing substantial uninsurance among seniors, benefits changes would likely need to occur in combination with other options. PMID:23650322

Ecosystem variability in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, Arny L.; Day, Robert H.; Gall, Adrian E.; Aerts, Lisanne A. M.; Delarue, Julien; Dobbins, Elizabeth L.; Hopcroft, Russell R.; Questel, Jennifer M.; Weingartner, Thomas J.; Wisdom, Sheyna S.

2017-12-01

Understanding influences of cumulative effects from multiple stressors in marine ecosystems requires an understanding of the sources for and scales of variability. A multidisciplinary ecosystem study in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea during 2008-2013 investigated the variability of the study area's two adjacent sub-ecosystems: a pelagic system influenced by interannual and/or seasonal temporal variation at large, oceanographic (regional) scales, and a benthic-associated system more influenced by small-scale spatial variations. Variability in zooplankton communities reflected interannual oceanographic differences in waters advected northward from the Bering Sea, whereas variation in benthic communities was associated with seafloor and bottom-water characteristics. Variations in the planktivorous seabird community were correlated with prey distributions, whereas interaction effects in ANOVA for walruses were related to declines of sea-ice. Long-term shifts in seabird distributions were also related to changes in sea-ice distributions that led to more open water. Although characteristics of the lower trophic-level animals within sub-ecosystems result from oceanographic variations and interactions with seafloor topography, distributions of apex predators were related to sea-ice as a feeding platform (walruses) or to its absence (i.e., open water) for feeding (seabirds). The stability of prey resources appears to be a key factor in mediating predator interactions with other ocean characteristics. Seabirds reliant on highly-variable zooplankton prey show long-term changes as open water increases, whereas walruses taking benthic prey in biomass hotspots respond to sea-ice changes in the short-term. A better understanding of how variability scales up from prey to predators and how prey resource stability (including how critical prey respond to environmental changes over space and time) might be altered by climate and anthropogenic stressors is essential to predicting the future state of both the Chukchi and other arctic systems.

Understanding large-scale, long-term larval connectivity patterns: The case of the Northern Line Islands in the Central Pacific Ocean

PubMed Central

Mari, Lorenzo; Bonaventura, Luca; Storto, Andrea; Melià, Paco; Gatto, Marino; Masina, Simona

2017-01-01

Protecting key hotspots of marine biodiversity is essential to maintain ecosystem services at large spatial scales. Protected areas serve not only as sources of propagules colonizing other habitats, but also as receptors, thus acting as protected nurseries. To quantify the geographical extent and the temporal persistence of ecological benefits resulting from protection, we investigate larval connectivity within a remote archipelago, characterized by a strong spatial gradient of human impact from pristine to heavily exploited: the Northern Line Islands (NLIs), including part of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument (PRI-MNM). Larvae are described as passive Lagrangian particles transported by oceanic currents obtained from a oceanographic reanalysis. We compare different simulation schemes and compute connectivity measures (larval exchange probabilities and minimum/average larval dispersal distances from target islands). To explore the role of PRI-MNM in protecting marine organisms with pelagic larval stages, we drive millions of individual-based simulations for various Pelagic Larval Durations (PLDs), in all release seasons, and over a two-decades time horizon (1991–2010). We find that connectivity in the NLIs is spatially asymmetric and displays significant intra- and inter-annual variations. The islands belonging to PRI-MNM act more as sinks than sources of larvae, and connectivity is higher during the winter-spring period. In multi-annual analyses, yearly averaged southward connectivity significantly and negatively correlates with climatological anomalies (El Niño). This points out a possible system fragility and susceptibility to global warming. Quantitative assessments of large-scale, long-term marine connectivity patterns help understand region-specific, ecologically relevant interactions between islands. This is fundamental for devising scientifically-based protection strategies, which must be space- and time-varying to cope with the challenges posed by the concurrent pressures of human exploitation and global climate change. PMID:28809937

Understanding large-scale, long-term larval connectivity patterns: The case of the Northern Line Islands in the Central Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Mari, Lorenzo; Bonaventura, Luca; Storto, Andrea; Melià, Paco; Gatto, Marino; Masina, Simona; Casagrandi, Renato

2017-01-01

Protecting key hotspots of marine biodiversity is essential to maintain ecosystem services at large spatial scales. Protected areas serve not only as sources of propagules colonizing other habitats, but also as receptors, thus acting as protected nurseries. To quantify the geographical extent and the temporal persistence of ecological benefits resulting from protection, we investigate larval connectivity within a remote archipelago, characterized by a strong spatial gradient of human impact from pristine to heavily exploited: the Northern Line Islands (NLIs), including part of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument (PRI-MNM). Larvae are described as passive Lagrangian particles transported by oceanic currents obtained from a oceanographic reanalysis. We compare different simulation schemes and compute connectivity measures (larval exchange probabilities and minimum/average larval dispersal distances from target islands). To explore the role of PRI-MNM in protecting marine organisms with pelagic larval stages, we drive millions of individual-based simulations for various Pelagic Larval Durations (PLDs), in all release seasons, and over a two-decades time horizon (1991-2010). We find that connectivity in the NLIs is spatially asymmetric and displays significant intra- and inter-annual variations. The islands belonging to PRI-MNM act more as sinks than sources of larvae, and connectivity is higher during the winter-spring period. In multi-annual analyses, yearly averaged southward connectivity significantly and negatively correlates with climatological anomalies (El Niño). This points out a possible system fragility and susceptibility to global warming. Quantitative assessments of large-scale, long-term marine connectivity patterns help understand region-specific, ecologically relevant interactions between islands. This is fundamental for devising scientifically-based protection strategies, which must be space- and time-varying to cope with the challenges posed by the concurrent pressures of human exploitation and global climate change.

A VLSI recurrent network of integrate-and-fire neurons connected by plastic synapses with long-term memory.

PubMed

Chicca, E; Badoni, D; Dante, V; D'Andreagiovanni, M; Salina, G; Carota, L; Fusi, S; Del Giudice, P

2003-01-01

Electronic neuromorphic devices with on-chip, on-line learning should be able to modify quickly the synaptic couplings to acquire information about new patterns to be stored (synaptic plasticity) and, at the same time, preserve this information on very long time scales (synaptic stability). Here, we illustrate the electronic implementation of a simple solution to this stability-plasticity problem, recently proposed and studied in various contexts. It is based on the observation that reducing the analog depth of the synapses to the extreme (bistable synapses) does not necessarily disrupt the performance of the device as an associative memory, provided that 1) the number of neurons is large enough; 2) the transitions between stable synaptic states are stochastic; and 3) learning is slow. The drastic reduction of the analog depth of the synaptic variable also makes this solution appealing from the point of view of electronic implementation and offers a simple methodological alternative to the technological solution based on floating gates. We describe the full custom analog very large-scale integration (VLSI) realization of a small network of integrate-and-fire neurons connected by bistable deterministic plastic synapses which can implement the idea of stochastic learning. In the absence of stimuli, the memory is preserved indefinitely. During the stimulation the synapse undergoes quick temporary changes through the activities of the pre- and postsynaptic neurons; those changes stochastically result in a long-term modification of the synaptic efficacy. The intentionally disordered pattern of connectivity allows the system to generate a randomness suited to drive the stochastic selection mechanism. We check by a suitable stimulation protocol that the stochastic synaptic plasticity produces the expected pattern of potentiation and depression in the electronic network.

Modified forest rotation lengths: Long-term effects on landscape-scale habitat availability for specialized species.

PubMed

Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

2018-03-15

We evaluated the long-term implications from modifying rotation lengths in production forests for four forest-reliant species with different habitat requirements. By combining simulations of forest development with habitat models, and accounting both for stand and landscape scale influences, we projected habitat availability over 150 years in a large Swedish landscape, using rotation lengths which are longer (+22% and +50%) and shorter (-22%) compared to current practices. In terms of mean habitat availability through time, species requiring older forest were affected positively by extended rotations, and negatively by shortened rotations. For example, the mean habitat area for the treecreeper Certhia familiaris (a bird preferring forest with larger trees) increased by 31% when rotations were increased by 22%, at a 5% cost to net present value (NPV) and a 7% decrease in harvested volume. Extending rotation lengths by 50% provided more habitat for this species compared to a 22% extension, but at a much higher marginal cost. In contrast, the beetle Hadreule elongatula, which is dependent on sun-exposed dead wood, benefited from shortened rather than prolonged rotations. Due to an uneven distribution of stand-ages within the landscape, the relative amounts of habitat provided by different rotation length scenarios for a given species were not always consistent through time during the simulation period. If implemented as a conservation measure, prolonging rotations will require long-term strategic planning to avoid future bottlenecks in habitat availability, and will need to be accompanied by complementary measures accounting for the diversity of habitats necessary for the conservation of forest biodiversity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid changes and long-term cycles in the benthic megafaunal community observed over 24 years in the abyssal northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhnz, Linda A.; Ruhl, Henry A.; Huffard, Christine L.; Smith, Kenneth L.

2014-05-01

The abyssal seafloor community in the NE Pacific (Station M, ∼4000 m depth) was studied between 2006 and 2012 using remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) as part of a continuing 24-year time-series study. New patterns continue to emerge showing that the deep-sea can be dynamic on short time scales, rather than static over long periods. In just over 2 years the community shifted from a sessile, suspension-feeding, sponge-dominated community to a mobile, detritus-feeding, sea cucumber-dominated assemblage. In 2006 megafaunal diversity (Simpson’s Diversity Index, SDI) was high, yet the community was depauperate in terms of density compared to later periods. Over an 18-month period beginning in spring 2011, the densities of mobile organisms increased by nearly an order of magnitude while diversity decreased below 2006 levels. In late 2012 four sea cucumbers (two Peniagone spp., Elpidia sp. A, and Scotoplanes globosa) were at the highest densities recorded since investigations began at Station M in 1989. For a group of 10 echinoderms investigated over the entire study period, we saw evidence of a long-term cycle spanning 2 decades. These changes can be tied to a variable food supply originating in shallow water. Large variations over decadal-scales indicate that remote abyssal communities are dynamic and likely subject to impacts from anthropogenic changes like ocean warming, acidification, and pollution manifested in the upper ocean. The degree of dynamism indicates that one-time or short-term investigations are not sufficient for assessing biological community structure in conservation or exploitation studies in the deep sea.

Depression among family caregivers of community-dwelling older people who used services under the Long Term Care Insurance program: a large-scale population-based study in Japan.

PubMed

Arai, Yumiko; Kumamoto, Keigo; Mizuno, Yoko; Washio, Masakazu

2014-01-01

To identify predictors for depression among family caregivers of community-dwelling older people under the Long Term Care Insurance (LTCI) program in Japan through a large-scale population-based survey. All 5938 older people with disabilities, using domiciliary services under the LTCI in the city of Toyama, and their family caregivers participated in this study. Caregiver depression was defined as scores of ≥16 on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Other caregiver measures included age, sex, hours spent caregiving, relationship to the care recipient, income adequacy, living arrangement, self-rated health, and work status. Care recipient measures included age, sex, level of functional disability, and severity of dementia. The data from 4128 pairs of the care recipients and their family caregivers were eligible for further analyses. A multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the predictors associated with being at risk of clinical depression (CES-D of ≥16). Overall, 34.2% of caregivers scored ≥16 on the CES-D. The independent predictors for depression by logistic regression analysis were six caregiver characteristics (female, income inadequacy, longer hours spent caregiving, worse subjective health, and co-residence with the care recipient) and one care-recipient characteristic (moderate dementia). This is one of the first population-based examinations of caregivers of older people who are enrolled in a national service system that provides affordable access to services. The results highlighted the importance of monitoring caregivers who manifest the identified predictors to attenuate caregiver depression at the population level under the LTCI.

On Lateral Viscosity Contrast in the Mantle and the Rheology of Low-Frequency Geodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ivins, Erik R.; Sammis, Charles G.

1995-01-01

Mantle-wide heterogeneity is largely controlled by deeply penetrating thermal convective currents. These thermal currents are likely to produce significant lateral variation in rheology, and this can profoundly influence overall material behaviour. How thermally related lateral viscosity variations impact models of glacio-isostatic and tidal deformation is largely unknown. An important step towards model improvement is to quantify, or bound, the actual viscosity variations that characterize the mantle. Simple scaling of viscosity to shear-wave velocity fluctuations yields map-views of long- wavelength viscosity variation. These give a general quantitative description and aid in estimating the depth dependence of rheological heterogeneity throughout the mantle. The upper mantle is probably characterized by two to four orders of magnitude variation (peak-to-peak). Discrepant time-scales for rebounding Holocene shorelines of Hudson Bay and southern Iceland are consistent with this characterization. Results are given in terms of a local average viscosity ratio, (Delta)eta(bar)(sub i), of volumetric concentration, phi(sub i). For the upper mantle deeper than 340 km the following reasonable limits are estimated for (delta)eta(bar) approx. equal 10(exp -2): 0.01 less than or equal to phi less than or equal to 0.15. A spectrum of ratios (Delta)eta(bar)(sub i) less than 0.1 at concentration level eta(sub i) approx. equal 10(exp -6) - 10(exp -1) in the lower mantle implies a spectrum of shorter time-scale deformational response modes for second-degree spherical harmonic deformations of the Earth. Although highly uncertain, this spectrum of spatial variation allows a purely Maxwellian viscoelastic rheology simultaneously to explain all solid tidal dispersion phenomena and long-term rebound-related mantle viscosity. Composite theory of multiphase viscoelastic media is used to demonstrate this effect.

Forest disturbance spurs growth of modeling and technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohrer, G.; Matheny, A. M.; Mirfenderesgi, G.; Morin, T. H.; Rey Sanchez, A. C.; Gough, C. M.; Vogel, C. S.; Nadelhoffer, K. J.; Curtis, P.

2016-12-01

As new opportunities for scientific exploration open, needs for data generate a drive for innovative developments of new research tools. The Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET) was enacted in 2007, continuous flux observations at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) since 2000. FASET is a large-scale ecological experiment testing the immediate and intermediate term effects of disturbance, and eventually, the role of succession and community composition on forest flux dynamics. Decades-long tree-level observations in the UMBS forest, combined with the long term flux observations allowed us to match the bottom-up accumulated response of individual trees with the top-down whole-plot response measured from the flux tower. However, data describing tree-level canopy structure and hydrological response over an entire plot were not readily available. Unintentionally, FASET became both a motivation and a test-bed for new research tools and approaches. We expanded the operation and analysis approach for a portable canopy LiDARfor 3-D measurements meter-scale canopy structure. We matched canopy LiDAR measurements with root measurements from ground penetrating radar. To study the hydrological effects of the disturbance, we instrumented a large number of trees with Granier-style sap flux sensors. We further developed an approach to use frequency domain reflectometry sensors for continuous measurements of tree water content. We developed an approach to combine plot census, allometry and sap-flux observations in a bottom-up fashion to compare with plot-level EC transpiration rates. We found that while the transpirational water demand in the disturbance plot increased, overall evapotranspiration decreased. This decrease, however, is not uniform across species. A new individual-plant to ecosystem scale hydrodynamic model (FETCH2) demonstrates how specific traits translate to intra-daily differences in plot-level transpiration dynamics.

Techniques for control of long-term reliability of complex integrated circuits. I - Reliability assurance by test vehicle qualification.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Vonno, N. W.

1972-01-01

Development of an alternate approach to the conventional methods of reliability assurance for large-scale integrated circuits. The product treated is a large-scale T squared L array designed for space applications. The concept used is that of qualification of product by evaluation of the basic processing used in fabricating the product, providing an insight into its potential reliability. Test vehicles are described which enable evaluation of device characteristics, surface condition, and various parameters of the two-level metallization system used. Evaluation of these test vehicles is performed on a lot qualification basis, with the lot consisting of one wafer. Assembled test vehicles are evaluated by high temperature stress at 300 C for short time durations. Stressing at these temperatures provides a rapid method of evaluation and permits a go/no go decision to be made on the wafer lot in a timely fashion.

Application of Desalination with CFRP Composite Electrode to Concrete Deteriorated by Chloride Attack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, Keisuke; Ueda, Takao; Nanasawa, Akira

As a new rehabilitation technique for recovery both of loading ability and durability of concrete structures deteriorated by chloride attack, desalination (electrochemical chloride removal technique from concrete) using CFRP composite electrode bonding to concrete has been developed. In this study, basic application was tried using small RC specimens, and also application to the large-scale RC beams deteriorated by the chloride attack through the long-term exposure in the outdoors was investigated. As the result of bending test of treated specimens, the decrease of strengthening effect with the electrochemical treatment was observed in the case of small specimens using low absorption rate resin for bonding, on the other hand, in the case of large-scale RC beam using 20% absorption rate resin for bonding CFRP composite electrode, enough strengthening effect was obtained by the bending failure of RC beam with the fracture of CFRP board.

Living the lesson: can the Lifestyle Project be used to achieve deep learning in environmental earth science?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padden, M.; Whalen, K.

2013-12-01

Students in a large, second-year environmental earth science class made significant changes to their daily lives over a three-week period to learn how small-scale actions interact with global-scaled issues such as water and energy supplies, waste management and agriculture. The Lifestyle Project (Kirk and Thomas, 2003) was slightly adapted to fit a large-class setting (350 students). Students made changes to their lifestyle in self-selected categories (water, home heating, transportation, waste, food) and created journals over a three-week period as the changes increased in difficulty. The goal of this study is to gain an understanding of which aspects of the project played a pivotal role in impacting long-term learning. Content analysis of the journal entries and follow-up interviews are used to investigate if the Lifestyle Project is having a lasting impact on the students 18 months after the initial assignment.

Vaccines for Conservation: Plague, Prairie Dogs & Black-Footed Ferrets as a Case Study.

PubMed

Salkeld, Daniel J

2017-09-01

The endangered black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) is affected by plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, both directly, as a cause of mortality, and indirectly, because of the impacts of plague on its prairie dog (Cynomys spp.) prey base. Recent developments in vaccines and vaccine delivery have raised the possibility of plague control in prairie dog populations, thereby protecting ferret populations. A large-scale experimental investigation across the western US shows that sylvatic plague vaccine delivered in oral baits can increase prairie dog survival. In northern Colorado, an examination of the efficacy of insecticides to control fleas and plague vaccine shows that timing and method of plague control is important, with different implications for long-term and large-scale management of Y. pestis delivery. In both cases, the studies show that ambitious field-work and cross-sectoral collaboration can provide potential solutions to difficult issues of wildlife management, conservation and disease ecology.

Listening to the Deep: live monitoring of ocean noise and cetacean acoustic signals.

PubMed

André, M; van der Schaar, M; Zaugg, S; Houégnigan, L; Sánchez, A M; Castell, J V

2011-01-01

The development and broad use of passive acoustic monitoring techniques have the potential to help assessing the large-scale influence of artificial noise on marine organisms and ecosystems. Deep-sea observatories have the potential to play a key role in understanding these recent acoustic changes. LIDO (Listening to the Deep Ocean Environment) is an international project that is allowing the real-time long-term monitoring of marine ambient noise as well as marine mammal sounds at cabled and standalone observatories. Here, we present the overall development of the project and the use of passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) techniques to provide the scientific community with real-time data at large spatial and temporal scales. Special attention is given to the extraction and identification of high frequency cetacean echolocation signals given the relevance of detecting target species, e.g. beaked whales, in mitigation processes, e.g. during military exercises. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The scale-dependent market trend: Empirical evidences using the lagged DFA method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Daye; Kou, Zhun; Sun, Qiankun

2015-09-01

In this paper we make an empirical research and test the efficiency of 44 important market indexes in multiple scales. A modified method based on the lagged detrended fluctuation analysis is utilized to maximize the information of long-term correlations from the non-zero lags and keep the margin of errors small when measuring the local Hurst exponent. Our empirical result illustrates that a common pattern can be found in the majority of the measured market indexes which tend to be persistent (with the local Hurst exponent > 0.5) in the small time scale, whereas it displays significant anti-persistent characteristics in large time scales. Moreover, not only the stock markets but also the foreign exchange markets share this pattern. Considering that the exchange markets are only weakly synchronized with the economic cycles, it can be concluded that the economic cycles can cause anti-persistence in the large time scale but there are also other factors at work. The empirical result supports the view that financial markets are multi-fractal and it indicates that deviations from efficiency and the type of model to describe the trend of market price are dependent on the forecasting horizon.

Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years.

PubMed

Salvatteci, Renato; Field, David; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Baumgartner, Tim; Ferreira, Vicente; Ortlieb, Luc; Sifeddine, Abdel; Grados, Daniel; Bertrand, Arnaud

2018-03-01

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large-scale forcing controls decadal-scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin-scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large-scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long-term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom-up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Atomic-Scale Origin of Long-Term Stability and High Performance of p-GaN Nanowire Arrays for Photocatalytic Overall Pure Water Splitting.

PubMed

Kibria, Md Golam; Qiao, Ruimin; Yang, Wanli; Boukahil, Idris; Kong, Xianghua; Chowdhury, Faqrul Alam; Trudeau, Michel L; Ji, Wei; Guo, Hong; Himpsel, F J; Vayssieres, Lionel; Mi, Zetian

2016-10-01

The atomic-scale origin of the unusually high performance and long-term stability of wurtzite p-GaN oriented nanowire arrays is revealed. Nitrogen termination of both the polar (0001¯) top face and the nonpolar (101¯0) side faces of the nanowires is essential for long-term stability and high efficiency. Such a distinct atomic configuration ensures not only stability against (photo) oxidation in air and in water/electrolyte but, as importantly, also provides the necessary overall reverse crystal polarization needed for efficient hole extraction in p-GaN. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

WHO WOULD EAT IN A WORLD WITHOUT PHOSPHORUS? A GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumas, M.

2009-12-01

Phosphorus is an indispensable and non-substitutable resource, as agriculture is impossible if soils do not hold adequate amounts of this nutrient. Phosphorus is also considered to be a non-renewable and increasingly scarce resource, as phosphate rock reserves - as one measure of availability amongst others - are estimated to last for 50 to 100 years at current rates of consumption. How would food production decline in different parts of the world in the scenario of a sudden shortage in phosphorus? To answer this question and explore management scenarios, I present a probabilistic model of the structure and dynamics of the global P cycle in the world’s agro-ecosystems. The model proposes an original solution to the challenge of capturing the large-scale aggregate dynamics of multiple micro-scale soil cycling processes. Furthermore, it integrates the essential natural processes with a model of human-managed flows, thereby bringing together several decades of research and measurements from soil science, plant nutrition and long-term agricultural experiments from around the globe. In this paper, I present the model, the first simulation results and the implications for long-term sustainable management of phosphorus and soil fertility.