Monitoring Forest Condition in Europe: Impacts of Nitrogen and Sulfur Depositions on Forest Ecosystems

Treesearch

M. Lorenz; G. Becher; V. Mues; E. Ulrich

2006-01-01

Forest condition in Europe has been monitored over 19 years jointly by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the European Union (EU). Large-scale variations of forest condition over space and time in relation to natural and anthropogenic factors are assessed on about 6,000 plots systematically spread across Europe. This large-scale monitoring...

Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

Treesearch

C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

2015-01-01

Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

Gravitational spreading of steep-sided ridges ("sackung") in Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Radbruch-Hall, D. H.; Varnes, D.J.; Savage, W.Z.

1976-01-01

Large-scale gravitational spreading and movement along fractures of steep-sided ridges in the mountainous areas of the western United States are characterized by linear fissures, trenches, and uphill-facing scarps on tops and sides of ridges. Spreading appears to take place by movement along disconnected planes and/or by slow plastic deformation of a rock mass. In some places, valleyward squeezing out of weak shales overlain by rigid rocks causes extensional fracturing and outward movement of the rigid layers, as illustrated by extension of two laccoliths overlying Mancos Shale, one at Dolores Peak and another at Crested Butte in western Colorado. Gravitational forces acting on a ridge of more homogeneous material causes tensional spreading of the ridge parallel to its long axis, for example in fractured granitic rock north of Mt. Massive in central Colorado, where a survey course has been established to monitor the movement. Recognition and understanding of these large-scale gravitational features and the mechanism that causes them are pertinent to site selection and design of engineering structures in high mountains. If fractures extend to considerable depth and if movement is continuing, engineering structures in valleys or tunnels through the spreading ridges could be damaged. ?? 1976 International Association of Engineering Geology.

Fire modeling in the Brazilian arc of deforestation through nested coupling of atmosphere, dynamic vegetation, LUCC and fire spread models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourigny, E.; Nobre, C.; Cardoso, M. F.

2012-12-01

Deforestation of tropical forests for logging and agriculture, associated to slash-and-burn practices, is a major source of CO2 emissions, both immediate due to biomass burning and future due to the elimination of a potential CO2 sink. Feedbacks between climate change and LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) can potentially increase the loss of tropical forests and increase the rate of CO2 emissions, through mechanisms such as land and soil degradation and the increase in wildfire occurrence and severity. However, current understanding of the processes of fires (including ignition, spread and consequences) in tropical forests and climatic feedbacks are poorly understood and need further research. As the processes of LUCC and associated fires occur at local scales, linking them to large-scale atmospheric processes requires a means of up-scaling higher resolutions processes to lower resolutions. Our approach is to couple models which operate at various spatial and temporal scales: a Global Climate Model (GCM), Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and local-scale LUCC and fire spread model. The climate model resolves large scale atmospheric processes and forcings, which are imposed on the surface DGVM and fed-back to climate. Higher-resolution processes such as deforestation, land use management and associated (as well as natural) fires are resolved at the local level. A dynamic tiling scheme allows to represent local-scale heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency of the land surface model, compared to traditional landscape models. Fire behavior is modeled at the regional scale (~500m) to represent the detailed landscape using a semi-empirical fire spread model. The relatively coarse scale (as compared to other fire spread models) is necessary due to the paucity of detailed land-cover information and fire history (particularly in the tropics and developing countries). This work presents initial results of a spatially-explicit fire spread model coupled to the IBIS DGVM model. Our area of study comprises selected regions in and near the Brazilian "arc of deforestation". For model training and evaluation, several areas have been mapped using high-resolution imagery from the Landsat TM/ETM+ sensors (Figure 1). This high resolution reference data is used for local-scale simulations and also to evaluate the accuracy of the global MCD45 burned area product, which will be used in future studies covering the entire "arc of deforestation".; Area of study along the arc of deforestation and cerrado: landsat scenes used and burned area (2010) from MCD45 product.

Taking Teacher Learning to Scale: Sharing Knowledge and Spreading Ideas across Geographies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klein, Emily J.; Jaffe-Walter, Reva; Riordan, Megan

2016-01-01

This research reports data from case studies of three intermediary organizations facing the challenge of scaling up teacher learning. The turn of the century launched scaling-up efforts of all three intermediaries, growing from intimate groups, where founding teachers and staff were key supports for teacher learning, to large multistate…

A spreading drop model for plumes on Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, D. M.

1994-01-01

Many of the large-scale, plume-related features on Venus can be modeled by a buoyant viscous drop, or plume head, as it rises and spreads laterally below a free fluid surface. The drop has arbitrary density and viscosity contrast and begins as a sphere below the surface of a fluid half space. The boundary integral method is used to solve for the motion of the plume head and for the topography, geoid, and stress at the fluid surface. As the plume approaches the surface, stresses in the fluid above it cause it to spread and become thin below the surface. During the spreading, the surface swell above evolves through various stages whose morphologies resemble several different plume-related features observed on Venus. When the plume head first approaches the surface, a high broad topographic dome develops, with a large geoid, and radial extensional deformation patterns. At later stages, the topography subsides and becomes plateau-like, the geoid to topography ratio (GTR) decreases, and the dominant stress pattern consists of a band of concentric extension surrounded by a band of concentric compression. We find that a low-viscosity model plume head (viscosity that is 0.1 times the mantle viscosity) produces maximum topography that is 20% lower, and swell features which evolve faster, than for an isoviscous plume. We compare model results with both the large-scale highland swells, and smaller-scale features such as coronae and novae. The dome-shaped highlands with large GTRs such as Beta, Atla, and Western Eistla Regiones may be the result of early stage plume motion, while the flatter highlands such as Ovda and Thetis Regiones which have lower GTRs may be later stage features. Comparison of model results with GTR data indicates that the highlands result from plume heads with initial diameters of about 1000 km. On a smaller scale, an evolutionary sequence may begin with novae (domes having radial extensional deformation), followed by features with radial and concentric deformation (such as arachnoids), and end with coronae (with mostly concentric deformation). The model predicts that the highlands evolve on a timescale of order 10 Ma, and the smaller-scale features evolve in a 100 Ma timescale.

Flame Spread and Group-Combustion Excitation in Randomly Distributed Droplet Clouds with Low-Volatility Fuel near the Excitation Limit: a Percolation Approach Based on Flame-Spread Characteristics in Microgravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikami, Masato; Saputro, Herman; Seo, Takehiko; Oyagi, Hiroshi

2018-03-01

Stable operation of liquid-fueled combustors requires the group combustion of fuel spray. Our study employs a percolation approach to describe unsteady group-combustion excitation based on findings obtained from microgravity experiments on the flame spread of fuel droplets. We focus on droplet clouds distributed randomly in three-dimensional square lattices with a low-volatility fuel, such as n-decane in room-temperature air, where the pre-vaporization effect is negligible. We also focus on the flame spread in dilute droplet clouds near the group-combustion-excitation limit, where the droplet interactive effect is assumed negligible. The results show that the occurrence probability of group combustion sharply decreases with the increase in mean droplet spacing around a specific value, which is termed the critical mean droplet spacing. If the lattice size is at smallest about ten times as large as the flame-spread limit distance, the flame-spread characteristics are similar to those over an infinitely large cluster. The number density of unburned droplets remaining after completion of burning attained maximum around the critical mean droplet spacing. Therefore, the critical mean droplet spacing is a good index for stable combustion and unburned hydrocarbon. In the critical condition, the flame spreads through complicated paths, and thus the characteristic time scale of flame spread over droplet clouds has a very large value. The overall flame-spread rate of randomly distributed droplet clouds is almost the same as the flame-spread rate of a linear droplet array except over the flame-spread limit.

Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Somot, S.; Déqué, M.

2009-10-01

One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961-2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation.

Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eubank, Stephen; Guclu, Hasan; Anil Kumar, V. S.; Marathe, Madhav V.; Srinivasan, Aravind; Toroczkai, Zoltán; Wang, Nan

2004-05-01

Most mathematical models for the spread of disease use differential equations based on uniform mixing assumptions or ad hoc models for the contact process. Here we explore the use of dynamic bipartite graphs to model the physical contact patterns that result from movements of individuals between specific locations. The graphs are generated by large-scale individual-based urban traffic simulations built on actual census, land-use and population-mobility data. We find that the contact network among people is a strongly connected small-world-like graph with a well-defined scale for the degree distribution. However, the locations graph is scale-free, which allows highly efficient outbreak detection by placing sensors in the hubs of the locations network. Within this large-scale simulation framework, we then analyse the relative merits of several proposed mitigation strategies for smallpox spread. Our results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.

Identifying the Threshold of Dominant Controls on Fire Spread in a Boreal Forest Landscape of Northeast China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S.

2013-01-01

The relative importance of fuel, topography, and weather on fire spread varies at different spatial scales, but how the relative importance of these controls respond to changing spatial scales is poorly understood. We designed a “moving window” resampling technique that allowed us to quantify the relative importance of controls on fire spread at continuous spatial scales using boosted regression trees methods. This quantification allowed us to identify the threshold value for fire size at which the dominant control switches from fuel at small sizes to weather at large sizes. Topography had a fluctuating effect on fire spread across the spatial scales, explaining 20–30% of relative importance. With increasing fire size, the dominant control switched from bottom-up controls (fuel and topography) to top-down controls (weather). Our analysis suggested that there is a threshold for fire size, above which fires are driven primarily by weather and more likely lead to larger fire size. We suggest that this threshold, which may be ecosystem-specific, can be identified using our “moving window” resampling technique. Although the threshold derived from this analytical method may rely heavily on the sampling technique, our study introduced an easily implemented approach to identify scale thresholds in wildfire regimes. PMID:23383247

Nonlinear Equatorial Spread F: Spatially Large Bubbles Resulting from Large Horizontal Scale Initial Perturbations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-06

Hk~ NAT;ONAL BUR[AUJ (1 STANDARDS 1%3-, $LEVE1 NR L Memomduum Report 4154 ILII Nonlinear Equatorial Spread F: Spatially Large Bubbles Resulting from...Washington, DC 20375 and 67-0883-0-0 _DNA qubtask S99OAXHC 41 II. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12 . REPORT DATE Defense Nuclear Agency, Washington...Perturbation A: n(yO) i-e 23 [CIDS ] 8 Ax <Jxj< 16Ax n(x,y,0) 1 1 x1 > 16 Ax n (y,O) ( 12 ) Perturbation B: n(%,y,0) 1 -e 3 cos ( (13) n 0 (y,) \\2xm 7

Disease spread across multiple scales in a spatial hierarchy: effect of host spatial structure and of inoculum quantity and distribution.

PubMed

Gosme, Marie; Lucas, Philippe

2009-07-01

Spatial patterns of both the host and the disease influence disease spread and crop losses. Therefore, the manipulation of these patterns might help improve control strategies. Considering disease spread across multiple scales in a spatial hierarchy allows one to capture important features of epidemics developing in space without using explicitly spatialized variables. Thus, if the system under study is composed of roots, plants, and planting hills, the effect of host spatial pattern can be studied by varying the number of plants per planting hill. A simulation model based on hierarchy theory was used to simulate the effects of large versus small planting hills, low versus high level of initial infections, and aggregated versus uniform distribution of initial infections. The results showed that aggregating the initially infected plants always resulted in slower epidemics than spreading out the initial infections uniformly. Simulation results also showed that, in most cases, disease epidemics were slower in the case of large host aggregates (100 plants/hill) than with smaller aggregates (25 plants/hill), except when the initially infected plants were both numerous and spread out uniformly. The optimal strategy for disease control depends on several factors, including initial conditions. More importantly, the model offers a framework to account for the interplay between the spatial characteristics of the system, rates of infection, and aggregation of the disease.

Safety Performance of Exterior Wall Insulation Material Based on Large Security Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Q. L.; Wang, Y. J.; Li, J. S.

2018-05-01

In order to evaluate the fire spread characteristics of building insulation materials under corner fire, an experiment is carried out with small-scale fire spread test system. The change rule of the parameters such as the average height of the flame, the average temperature of the flame and the shape of the flame are analyzed. The variations of the fire spread characteristic parameters of the building insulation materials are investigated. The results show that the average temperature of Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) board, with different thickness, decrease - rise - decrease - increase. During the combustion process, the fire of 4cm thick plate spreads faster.

Asymmetric Crustal Accretion Across the Carlsberg Ridge (NW Indian Ocean) since the Paleocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, A.; Kamesh Raju, K.; Bhattacharya, G.; Dyment, J.; Royer, J.

2006-12-01

We present magnetic isochron map in conjunction with satellite derived free-air gravity anomaly image of the Carlsberg Ridge to understand crustal accretion across the ridge since its inception. Well-lineated and high- amplitude magnetic anomalies C1n through C2An and C20n through C28ny have been identified across the present- and paleo-Carlsberg Ridge respectively. Average full spreading rates of ~32 km/my for the past 4.18 Ma and ~46-260 km/my during C20n-C28ny respectively have been estimated based on model studies. Analysis of magnetic anomalies reveals that crustal accretion of SW flank of the Carlsberg Ridge was greater by ~5-20% as compared to its conjugate NE flank for the last 4 Myr. Whereas, accretion due to paleo- Carlsberg Ridge, in general, was ~20% consistently greater at NE flank (now known as the Arabian Basin) compared to its conjugate SW flank (now known as the Eastern Somali Basin) during 63 43 Ma. An instance of exception to this general scenario is observed during magnetic chron 24n.1y-23n.2o period (52.4-51.7 Ma) when accretion on the SW flank of the ridge was ~10% greater as compared to its conjugate part. These results indicate that crustal accretion across the Carlsberg Ridge was substantially asymmetric and represent both small- and large-scale crustal asymmetries for the past 63 Myr (C28n). Small-scale asymmetries vary between individual spreading corridors, whereas, large-scale asymmetries represented by consistent excess accretion on one of the two separating plates from the Late Paleocene to Middle Eocene. We propose that small-scale asymmetry resulted from discrete spreading-center jumps in the inner rift valley floor; whereas, spreading ridge propagation, which dominated pre-C20n spreading history of the Carlsberg Ridge, caused large-scale asymmetric crustal accretion. Asymmetric crustal accretion across mid-ocean ridge systems is common phenomena in the geologic past but processes that lead to asymmetry are not well resolved. The results of this study and other available results of the region suggest that stress variations at plate boundaries such as those active during the initial stages of the Indo-Eurasia collision as probable cause for the asymmetric crustal accretion across the Carlsberg Ridge.

Fire safety in space - Investigating flame spread interaction over wires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Citerne, Jean-Marie; Dutilleul, Hugo; Kizawa, Koki; Nagachi, Masashi; Fujita, Osamu; Kikuchi, Masao; Jomaas, Grunde; Rouvreau, Sébastien; Torero, Jose L.; Legros, Guillaume

2016-09-01

A new rig for microgravity experiments was used for the study flame spread of parallel polyethylene-coated wires in concurrent and opposed airflow. The parabolic flight experiments were conducted at small length- and time scales, i.e. typically over 10 cm long samples for up to 20 s. For the first time, the influence of neighboring spread on the mass burning rate was assessed in microgravity. The observations are contrasted with the influence characterized in normal gravity. The experimental results are expected to deliver meaningful guidelines for future, planned experiments at a larger scale. Arising from the current results, the issue of the potential interaction among spreading flames also needs to be carefully investigated as this interaction plays a major role in realistic fire scenarios, and therefore on the design of the strategies that would allow the control of such a fire. Once buoyancy has been removed, the characteristic length and time scales of the different modes of heat and mass transfer are modified. For this reason, interaction among spreading flames may be revealed in microgravity, while it would not at normal gravity, or vice versa. Furthermore, the interaction may lead to an enhanced spread rate when mutual preheating dominates or, conversely, a reduced spread rate when oxidizer flow vitiation is predominant. In more general terms, the current study supports both the SAFFIRE and the FLARE projects, which are large projects with international scientific teams. First, material samples will be tested in a series of flight experiments (SAFFIRE 1-3) conducted in Cygnus vehicles after they have undocked from the ISS. These experiments will allow the study of ignition and possible flame spread in real spacecraft conditions, i.e. over real length scale samples within real time scales. Second, concomitant research conducted within the FLARE project is dedicated to the assessment of new standard tests for materials that a spacecraft can be composed of. Finally, these tests aim to define the ambient conditions that will mitigate and potentially prohibit the flame spread in microgravity over the material studied.

Epidemic mitigation via awareness propagation in communication networks: the role of time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huijuan; Chen, Chuyi; Qu, Bo; Li, Daqing; Havlin, Shlomo

2017-07-01

The participation of individuals in multi-layer networks allows for feedback between network layers, opening new possibilities to mitigate epidemic spreading. For instance, the spread of a biological disease such as Ebola in a physical contact network may trigger the propagation of the information related to this disease in a communication network, e.g. an online social network. The information propagated in the communication network may increase the awareness of some individuals, resulting in them avoiding contact with their infected neighbors in the physical contact network, which might protect the population from the infection. In this work, we aim to understand how the time scale γ of the information propagation (speed that information is spread and forgotten) in the communication network relative to that of the epidemic spread (speed that an epidemic is spread and cured) in the physical contact network influences such mitigation using awareness information. We begin by proposing a model of the interaction between information propagation and epidemic spread, taking into account the relative time scale γ. We analytically derive the average fraction of infected nodes in the meta-stable state for this model (i) by developing an individual-based mean-field approximation (IBMFA) method and (ii) by extending the microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA). We show that when the time scale γ of the information spread relative to the epidemic spread is large, our IBMFA approximation is better compared to MMCA near the epidemic threshold, whereas MMCA performs better when the prevalence of the epidemic is high. Furthermore, we find that an optimal mitigation exists that leads to a minimal fraction of infected nodes. The optimal mitigation is achieved at a non-trivial relative time scale γ, which depends on the rate at which an infected individual becomes aware. Contrary to our intuition, information spread too fast in the communication network could reduce the mitigation effect. Finally, our finding has been validated in the real-world two-layer network obtained from the location-based social network Brightkite.

Spatiotemporal property and predictability of large-scale human mobility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hai-Tao; Zhu, Tao; Fu, Dongfei; Xu, Bowen; Han, Xiao-Pu; Chen, Duxin

2018-04-01

Spatiotemporal characteristics of human mobility emerging from complexity on individual scale have been extensively studied due to the application potential on human behavior prediction and recommendation, and control of epidemic spreading. We collect and investigate a comprehensive data set of human activities on large geographical scales, including both websites browse and mobile towers visit. Numerical results show that the degree of activity decays as a power law, indicating that human behaviors are reminiscent of scale-free random walks known as Lévy flight. More significantly, this study suggests that human activities on large geographical scales have specific non-Markovian characteristics, such as a two-segment power-law distribution of dwelling time and a high possibility for prediction. Furthermore, a scale-free featured mobility model with two essential ingredients, i.e., preferential return and exploration, and a Gaussian distribution assumption on the exploration tendency parameter is proposed, which outperforms existing human mobility models under scenarios of large geographical scales.

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Simulating Nationwide Pandemics: Applying the Multi-scale Epidemiologic Simulation and Analysis System to Human Infectious Diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dombroski, M; Melius, C; Edmunds, T

2008-09-24

This study uses the Multi-scale Epidemiologic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) system developed for foreign animal diseases to assess consequences of nationwide human infectious disease outbreaks. A literature review identified the state of the art in both small-scale regional models and large-scale nationwide models and characterized key aspects of a nationwide epidemiological model. The MESA system offers computational advantages over existing epidemiological models and enables a broader array of stochastic analyses of model runs to be conducted because of those computational advantages. However, it has only been demonstrated on foreign animal diseases. This paper applied the MESA modeling methodology to humanmore » epidemiology. The methodology divided 2000 US Census data at the census tract level into school-bound children, work-bound workers, elderly, and stay at home individuals. The model simulated mixing among these groups by incorporating schools, workplaces, households, and long-distance travel via airports. A baseline scenario with fixed input parameters was run for a nationwide influenza outbreak using relatively simple social distancing countermeasures. Analysis from the baseline scenario showed one of three possible results: (1) the outbreak burned itself out before it had a chance to spread regionally, (2) the outbreak spread regionally and lasted a relatively long time, although constrained geography enabled it to eventually be contained without affecting a disproportionately large number of people, or (3) the outbreak spread through air travel and lasted a long time with unconstrained geography, becoming a nationwide pandemic. These results are consistent with empirical influenza outbreak data. The results showed that simply scaling up a regional small-scale model is unlikely to account for all the complex variables and their interactions involved in a nationwide outbreak. There are several limitations of the methodology that should be explored in future work including validating the model against reliable historical disease data, improving contact rates, spread methods, and disease parameters through discussions with epidemiological experts, and incorporating realistic behavioral assumptions.« less

A study of the spreading scheme for viral marketing based on a complex network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianmei; Yao, Canzhong; Ma, Weicheng; Chen, Guanrong

2010-02-01

Buzzword-based viral marketing, known also as digital word-of-mouth marketing, is a marketing mode attached to some carriers on the Internet, which can rapidly copy marketing information at a low cost. Viral marketing actually uses a pre-existing social network where, however, the scale of the pre-existing network is believed to be so large and so random, so that its theoretical analysis is intractable and unmanageable. There are very few reports in the literature on how to design a spreading scheme for viral marketing on real social networks according to the traditional marketing theory or the relatively new network marketing theory. Complex network theory provides a new model for the study of large-scale complex systems, using the latest developments of graph theory and computing techniques. From this perspective, the present paper extends the complex network theory and modeling into the research of general viral marketing and develops a specific spreading scheme for viral marking and an approach to design the scheme based on a real complex network on the QQ instant messaging system. This approach is shown to be rather universal and can be further extended to the design of various spreading schemes for viral marketing based on different instant messaging systems.

Numerical study of drop spreading on a flat surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Sheng; Desjardins, Olivier

2017-11-01

In this talk, we perform a numerical study of a droplet on a flat surface with special emphasis on capturing the spreading dynamics. The computational methodology employed is tailored for simulating large-scale two-phase flows within complex geometries. It combines a conservative level-set method to capture the liquid-gas interface, a conservative immersed boundary method to represent the solid-fluid interface, and a sub-grid curvature model at the triple-point to implicitly impose the contact angle of the liquid-gas interface. The performance of the approach is assessed in the inertial droplet spreading regime, the viscous spreading regime of high viscosity drops, and with the capillary oscillation of low viscosity droplets.

Epidemic spreading on activity-driven networks with attractiveness.

PubMed

Pozzana, Iacopo; Sun, Kaiyuan; Perra, Nicola

2017-10-01

We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalization of the activity-driven modeling framework. In this model of time-varying networks, each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The first describes the propensity to form connections, while the second defines the propensity to attract them. We derive analytically the epidemic threshold considering the time scale driving the evolution of contacts and the contagion as comparable. The solutions are general and hold for any joint distribution of activity and attractiveness. The theoretical picture is confirmed via large-scale numerical simulations performed considering heterogeneous distributions and different correlations between the two variables. We find that heterogeneous distributions of attractiveness alter the contagion process. In particular, in the case of uncorrelated and positive correlations between the two variables, heterogeneous attractiveness facilitates the spreading. On the contrary, negative correlations between activity and attractiveness hamper the spreading. The results presented contribute to the understanding of the dynamical properties of time-varying networks and their effects on contagion phenomena unfolding on their fabric.

Serial grouping of 2D-image regions with object-based attention in humans.

PubMed

Jeurissen, Danique; Self, Matthew W; Roelfsema, Pieter R

2016-06-13

After an initial stage of local analysis within the retina and early visual pathways, the human visual system creates a structured representation of the visual scene by co-selecting image elements that are part of behaviorally relevant objects. The mechanisms underlying this perceptual organization process are only partially understood. We here investigate the time-course of perceptual grouping of two-dimensional image-regions by measuring the reaction times of human participants and report that it is associated with the gradual spread of object-based attention. Attention spreads fastest over large and homogeneous areas and is slowed down at locations that require small-scale processing. We find that the time-course of the object-based selection process is well explained by a 'growth-cone' model, which selects surface elements in an incremental, scale-dependent manner. We discuss how the visual cortical hierarchy can implement this scale-dependent spread of object-based attention, leveraging the different receptive field sizes in distinct cortical areas.

Replicating Impact of a Primary School HIV Prevention Programme: Primary School Action for Better Health, Kenya

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maticka-Tyndale, E.; Mungwete, R.; Jayeoba, O.

2014-01-01

School-based programmes to combat the spread of HIV have been demonstrated to be effective over the short-term when delivered on a small scale. The question addressed here is whether results obtained with small-scale delivery are replicable in large-scale roll-out. Primary School Action for Better Health (PSABH), a programme to train teachers to…

Neurolinguistic approach to natural language processing with applications to medical text analysis.

PubMed

Duch, Włodzisław; Matykiewicz, Paweł; Pestian, John

2008-12-01

Understanding written or spoken language presumably involves spreading neural activation in the brain. This process may be approximated by spreading activation in semantic networks, providing enhanced representations that involve concepts not found directly in the text. The approximation of this process is of great practical and theoretical interest. Although activations of neural circuits involved in representation of words rapidly change in time snapshots of these activations spreading through associative networks may be captured in a vector model. Concepts of similar type activate larger clusters of neurons, priming areas in the left and right hemisphere. Analysis of recent brain imaging experiments shows the importance of the right hemisphere non-verbal clusterization. Medical ontologies enable development of a large-scale practical algorithm to re-create pathways of spreading neural activations. First concepts of specific semantic type are identified in the text, and then all related concepts of the same type are added to the text, providing expanded representations. To avoid rapid growth of the extended feature space after each step only the most useful features that increase document clusterization are retained. Short hospital discharge summaries are used to illustrate how this process works on a real, very noisy data. Expanded texts show significantly improved clustering and may be classified with much higher accuracy. Although better approximations to the spreading of neural activations may be devised a practical approach presented in this paper helps to discover pathways used by the brain to process specific concepts, and may be used in large-scale applications.

Fast and accurate detection of spread source in large complex networks.

PubMed

Paluch, Robert; Lu, Xiaoyan; Suchecki, Krzysztof; Szymański, Bolesław K; Hołyst, Janusz A

2018-02-06

Spread over complex networks is a ubiquitous process with increasingly wide applications. Locating spread sources is often important, e.g. finding the patient one in epidemics, or source of rumor spreading in social network. Pinto, Thiran and Vetterli introduced an algorithm (PTVA) to solve the important case of this problem in which a limited set of nodes act as observers and report times at which the spread reached them. PTVA uses all observers to find a solution. Here we propose a new approach in which observers with low quality information (i.e. with large spread encounter times) are ignored and potential sources are selected based on the likelihood gradient from high quality observers. The original complexity of PTVA is O(N α ), where α ∈ (3,4) depends on the network topology and number of observers (N denotes the number of nodes in the network). Our Gradient Maximum Likelihood Algorithm (GMLA) reduces this complexity to O (N 2 log (N)). Extensive numerical tests performed on synthetic networks and real Gnutella network with limitation that id's of spreaders are unknown to observers demonstrate that for scale-free networks with such limitation GMLA yields higher quality localization results than PTVA does.

Spreading dynamics in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

2013-12-01

Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

Generic evolution of mixing in heterogeneous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Dreuzy, J.; Carrera, J.; Dentz, M.; Le Borgne, T.

2011-12-01

Mixing in heterogeneous media results from the competition bewteen flow fluctuations and local scale diffusion. Flow fluctuations quickly create concentration contrasts and thus heterogeneity of the concentration field, which is slowly homogenized by local scale diffusion. Mixing first deviates from Gaussian mixing, which represents the potential mixing induced by spreading before approaching it. This deviation fundamentally expresses the evolution of the interaction between spreading and local scale diffusion. We characterize it by the ratio γ of the non-Gaussian to the Gaussian mixing states. We define the Gaussian mixing state as the integrated squared concentration of the Gaussian plume that has the same longitudinal dispersion as the real plume. The non-Gaussian mixing state is the difference between the overall mixing state defined as the integrated squared concentration and the Gaussian mixing state. The main advantage of this definition is to use the full knowledge previously acquired on dispersion for characterizing mixing even when the solute concentration field is highly non Gaussian. Using high precision numerical simulations, we show that γ quickly increases, peaks and slowly decreases. γ can be derived from two scales characterizing spreading and local mixing, at least for large flux-weighted solute injection conditions into classically log-normal Gaussian correlated permeability fields. The spreading scale is directly related to the longitudinal dispersion. The local mixing scale is the largest scale over which solute concentrations can be considered locally uniform. More generally, beyond the characteristics of its maximum, γ turns out to have a highly generic scaling form. Its fast increase and slow decrease depend neither on the heterogeneity level, nor on the ratio of diffusion to advection, nor on the injection conditions. They might even not depend on the particularities of the flow fields as the same generic features also prevail for Taylor dispersion. This generic characterization of mixing can offer new ways to set up transport equations that honor not only advection and spreading (dispersion), but also mixing.

Behaviors of susceptible-infected epidemics on scale-free networks with identical infectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tao; Liu, Jian-Guo; Bai, Wen-Jie; Chen, Guanrong; Wang, Bing-Hong

2006-11-01

In this paper, we propose a susceptible-infected model with identical infectivity, in which, at every time step, each node can only contact a constant number of neighbors. We implemented this model on scale-free networks, and found that the infected population grows in an exponential form with the time scale proportional to the spreading rate. Furthermore, by numerical simulation, we demonstrated that the targeted immunization of the present model is much less efficient than that of the standard susceptible-infected model. Finally, we investigate a fast spreading strategy when only local information is available. Different from the extensively studied path-finding strategy, the strategy preferring small-degree nodes is more efficient than that preferring large-degree nodes. Our results indicate the existence of an essential relationship between network traffic and network epidemic on scale-free networks.

Epidemics in Complex Networks: The Diversity of Hubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitsak, Maksim; Gallos, Lazaros K.; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene; Makse, Hernan A.

2009-03-01

Many complex systems are believed to be vulnerable to spread of viruses and information owing to their high level of interconnectivity. Even viruses of low contagiousness easily proliferate the Internet. Rumors, fads, and innovation ideas are prone to efficient spreading in various social systems. Another commonly accepted standpoint is the importance of the most connected elements (hubs) in the spreading processes. We address following questions. Do all hubs conduct epidemics in the same manner? How does the epidemics spread depend on the structure of the network? What is the most efficient way to spread information over the system? We analyze several large-scale systems in the framework of of the susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) disease spread model which can also be mapped to the problem of rumor or fad spreading. We show that hubs are often ineffective in the transmission of virus or information owing to the highly heterogeneous topology of most networks. We also propose a new tool to evaluate the efficiency of nodes in spreading virus or information.

epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

PubMed

Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

2016-12-01

Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate change alters diffusion of forest pest: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Hwang-Yong; Kim, Beom Jun

2017-01-01

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information such as temperature, precipitation, and the density of pine trees. Our simulation leads to a pest spreading pattern comparable to the real data for pine needle gall midge in the past. We also simulate the model in two different climate conditions based on two different representative concentration pathways scenarios for the future. We observe that after an initial stage of a slow spread of pests, a sudden change in the spreading speed occurs, which is soon followed by a large-scale outbreak. We found that a future climate change causes the outbreak point to occur earlier and that the detailed spatio-temporal pattern of the spread depends on the source position from which the initial pest infection starts.

The dynamic behavior of an insoluble surfactant monolayer spreading on a thin liquid film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matar, Omar Kamal

The spreading of surface active material on thin liquid films is studied by investigating the dynamics of a finite reservoir of insoluble surfactant spreading on a thin layer of Newtonian liquid. The first part of this thesis examines the unperturbed spreading process. It is shown that Marangoni dominated spreading leads to large deformations in the underlying liquid layer which diminish when the relative contribution of surface diffusion, capillary and gravitational forces is increased. A comparison between experimental measurements of the film deformation obtained by Moiré topography with theoretical predictions, performed for the first time, reveals excellent agreement. This study also shows that the mass of surfactant that participates in the spreading is a miniscule fraction of the total mass deposited. Simulations of surfactant delivery in model pulmonary airways demonstrate the adverse effect of a non-uniform field of pre-existing contaminants on the spreading and the importance of its inclusion in determining an optimal set of conditions for rapid and efficacious spreading. The second part describes efforts aimed at identifying the physical mechanisms responsible for some unusual fingered spreading patterns observed experimentally. A linear stability analysis of self-similar solutions governing Marangoni dominated spreading in rectilinear geometry, conducted in the quasi-steady-state- approximation, predicts stable modes. A similar analysis including effects of surface diffusion and capillarity also yields asymptotically stable flow. A transient growth analysis of the non-normal operators governing the evolution of disturbances yields amplification of initially infinitesimal perturbations by orders of magnitude on time scales comparable to Marangoni shear times. Disturbances of all wavenumbers eventually decay in agreement with the long time analyses. Numerical simulations of the nonlinear governing equations, however, show that, for the parameter values considered, the large amplification is insufficient to drive sustained finger formation and unstable flow in the nonlinear regime. Simulations of mode coupling interactions reveal that coalescence of adjacent fingers leads to an overall shift of the fingering patterns to longer transverse length scales. Preliminary results also indicate that van der Waals forces can enhance the growth of transverse disturbances in the thinning region of the film leading to possible asymptotic growth.

75 FR 61521 - NUREG/CR-7010, Cable Heat Release, Ignition, and Spread in Tray Installations During Fire...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-05

... tray configurations. The experiments conducted range from micro-scale, in which very small (5 mg... burned under a large oxygen- depletion calorimeter. Other experiments include cone calorimetry, smoke and... tray of cables underneath a bank of radiant panels. The results of the small-scale experiments are to...

Visualization and modeling of smoke transport over landscape scales

Treesearch

Glenn P. Forney; William Mell

2007-01-01

Computational tools have been developed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) for modeling fire spread and smoke transport. These tools have been adapted to address fire scenarios that occur in the wildland urban interface (WUI) over kilometer-scale distances. These models include the smoke plume transport model ALOFT (A Large Open Fire plume...

Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.

A Comparative Assessment of the Risks of Introduction and Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease among Different Pig Sectors in Australia

PubMed Central

Hernández-Jover, Marta; Schembri, Nicole; Holyoake, Patricia K.; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L. M. L.; Martin, Peter Anthony Julian

2016-01-01

Small-scale pig producers are believed to pose higher biosecurity risks for the introduction and spread of exotic diseases than commercial pig producers. However, the magnitude of these risks is poorly understood. This study is a comparative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) through different sectors of the pig industry: (1) large-scale pig producers; (2) small-scale producers (<100 sows) selling at saleyards and abattoirs; and (3) small-scale producers selling through informal means. An exposure and consequence assessments were conducted using the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk analysis, assuming FMD virus was introduced into Australia through illegal importation of infected meat. A quantitative assessment, using scenario trees and Monte Carlo stochastic simulation, was used to calculate the probabilities of exposure and spread. Input data for these assessments were obtained from a series of data gathering exercises among pig producers, industry statistics, and literature. Findings of this study suggest there is an Extremely low probability of exposure (8.69 × 10−6 to 3.81 × 10−5) for the three sectors of the pig industry, with exposure through direct swill feeding being 10–100 times more likely to occur than through contact with infected feral pigs. Spread of FMD from the index farm is most likely to occur through movement of contaminated fomites, pigs, and ruminants. The virus is more likely to spread from small-scale piggeries selling at saleyards and abattoirs than from other piggeries. The most influential factors on the spread of FMD from the index farm is the ability of the farmer to detect FMD, the probability of FMD spread through contaminated fomites and the presence of ruminants on the farm. Although small-scale producers selling informally move animals less frequently and do not use external staff, movement of pigs to non-commercial pathways could jeopardize animal traceability in the event of a disease outbreak. This study suggests that producers’ awareness on and engagement with legislative and industry requirements in relation to biosecurity and emergency animal disease management needs to be improved. Results from this study could be used by decision-makers to prioritize resource allocation for improving animal biosecurity in the pig industry. PMID:27713881

Satellite traces: An ionogram signature for large-scale wave structure and a precursor for equatorial spread F

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsunoda, Roland T.

2008-10-01

Although the source that controls day-to-day variability in the occurrence of equatorial plasma structure (i.e., equatorial spread F, or ESF) remains to be identified, progress is being made. There is evidence that the appearance of large-scale wave structure (LSWS) in the bottomside F layer, around the time of its post-sunset rise (PSSR), is a more-direct precursor of ESF than the PSSR itself. The bulk of the evidence, however, is in the form of ``satellite'' F traces in ionograms, which may be viewed as less than convincing, because these signatures have not been shown to be causally related to LSWS. In this paper, incoherent-scatter radar and ionosonde data, both collected on 24 July 1979 from the Kwajalein atoll, Marshall Islands, are used to show that this is indeed the case.

Comparison of jet Mach number decay data with a correlation and jet spreading contours for a large variety of nozzles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groesbeck, D. E.; Huff, R. G.; Vonglahn, U. H.

1977-01-01

Small-scale circular, noncircular, single- and multi-element nozzles with flow areas as large as 122 sq cm were tested with cold airflow at exit Mach numbers from 0.28 to 1.15. The effects of multi-element nozzle shape and element spacing on jet Mach number decay were studied in an effort to reduce the noise caused by jet impingement on externally blown flap (EBF) STOL aircraft. The jet Mach number decay data are well represented by empirical relations. Jet spreading and Mach number decay contours are presented for all configurations tested.

Beam Conditioning and Harmonic Generation in Free ElectronLasers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Charman, A.E.; Penn, G.; Wolski, A.

2004-07-05

The next generation of large-scale free-electron lasers (FELs) such as Euro-XFEL and LCLS are to be devices which produce coherent X-rays using Self-Amplified Spontaneous Emission (SASE). The performance of these devices is limited by the spread in longitudinal velocities of the beam. In the case where this spread arises primarily from large transverse oscillation amplitudes, beam conditioning can significantly enhance FEL performance. Future X-ray sources may also exploit harmonic generation starting from laser-seeded modulation. Preliminary analysis of such devices is discussed, based on a novel trial-function/variational-principle approach, which shows good agreement with more lengthy numerical simulations.

A global perspective of the limits of prediction skill based on the ECMWF ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagar, Nedjeljka

2016-04-01

In this talk presents a new model of the global forecast error growth applied to the forecast errors simulated by the ensemble prediction system (ENS) of the ECMWF. The proxy for forecast errors is the total spread of the ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts obtained by the decomposition of the wind and geopotential fields in the normal-mode functions. In this way, the ensemble spread can be quantified separately for the balanced and inertio-gravity (IG) modes for every forecast range. Ensemble reliability is defined for the balanced and IG modes comparing the ensemble spread with the control analysis in each scale. The results show that initial uncertainties in the ECMWF ENS are largest in the tropical large-scale modes and their spatial distribution is similar to the distribution of the short-range forecast errors. Initially the ensemble spread grows most in the smallest scales and in the synoptic range of the IG modes but the overall growth is dominated by the increase of spread in balanced modes in synoptic and planetary scales in the midlatitudes. During the forecasts, the distribution of spread in the balanced and IG modes grows towards the climatological spread distribution characteristic of the analyses. The ENS system is found to be somewhat under-dispersive which is associated with the lack of tropical variability, primarily the Kelvin waves. The new model of the forecast error growth has three fitting parameters to parameterize the initial fast growth and a more slow exponential error growth later on. The asymptotic values of forecast errors are independent of the exponential growth rate. It is found that the asymptotic values of the errors due to unbalanced dynamics are around 10 days while the balanced and total errors saturate in 3 to 4 weeks. Reference: Žagar, N., R. Buizza, and J. Tribbia, 2015: A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4423-4444.

Hurricane Activity and the Large-Scale Pattern of Spread of an Invasive Plant Species

PubMed Central

Bhattarai, Ganesh P.; Cronin, James T.

2014-01-01

Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6–35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species. PMID:24878928

Neurolinguistic Approach to Natural Language Processing with Applications to Medical Text Analysis

PubMed Central

Matykiewicz, Paweł; Pestian, John

2008-01-01

Understanding written or spoken language presumably involves spreading neural activation in the brain. This process may be approximated by spreading activation in semantic networks, providing enhanced representations that involve concepts that are not found directly in the text. Approximation of this process is of great practical and theoretical interest. Although activations of neural circuits involved in representation of words rapidly change in time snapshots of these activations spreading through associative networks may be captured in a vector model. Concepts of similar type activate larger clusters of neurons, priming areas in the left and right hemisphere. Analysis of recent brain imaging experiments shows the importance of the right hemisphere non-verbal clusterization. Medical ontologies enable development of a large-scale practical algorithm to re-create pathways of spreading neural activations. First concepts of specific semantic type are identified in the text, and then all related concepts of the same type are added to the text, providing expanded representations. To avoid rapid growth of the extended feature space after each step only the most useful features that increase document clusterization are retained. Short hospital discharge summaries are used to illustrate how this process works on a real, very noisy data. Expanded texts show significantly improved clustering and may be classified with much higher accuracy. Although better approximations to the spreading of neural activations may be devised a practical approach presented in this paper helps to discover pathways used by the brain to process specific concepts, and may be used in large-scale applications. PMID:18614334

Large Fluctuations for Spatial Diffusion of Cold Atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghion, Erez; Kessler, David A.; Barkai, Eli

2017-06-01

We use a new approach to study the large fluctuations of a heavy-tailed system, where the standard large-deviations principle does not apply. Large-deviations theory deals with tails of probability distributions and the rare events of random processes, for example, spreading packets of particles. Mathematically, it concerns the exponential falloff of the density of thin-tailed systems. Here we investigate the spatial density Pt(x ) of laser-cooled atoms, where at intermediate length scales the shape is fat tailed. We focus on the rare events beyond this range, which dominate important statistical properties of the system. Through a novel friction mechanism induced by the laser fields, the density is explored with the recently proposed non-normalized infinite-covariant density approach. The small and large fluctuations give rise to a bifractal nature of the spreading packet. We derive general relations which extend our theory to a class of systems with multifractal moments.

Ultrahigh 6D-brightness electron beams for the light sources of the next generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habib, Fahim; Manahan, Grace G.; Scherkl, Paul; Heinemann, Thomas; Sheng, Z. M.; Bruhwiler, D. L.; Cary, J. R.; Rosenzweig, J. B.; Hidding, Bernhard

2017-10-01

The plasma photocathode mechanism (aka Trojan Horse) enables a path towards electron beams with nm-level normalized emittance and kA range peak currents, hence ultrahigh 5D-brightness. This ultrahigh 5D-brightness beams hold great prospects to realize laboratory scale free-electron-lasers. However, the GV/m-accelerating gradient in plasma accelerators leads to substantial energy chirp and spread. The large energy spread is a major show-stopper towards key application such as the free-electron-laser. Here we present a novel method for energy chirp compensation which takes advantage of tailored beam loading due to a second ``escort'' bunch released via plasma photocathode. The escort bunch reverses the accelerating field locally at the trapping position of the ultrahigh 5D-brightness beam. This induces a counter-clockwise rotation within the longitudinal phase space and allows to compensate the chirp completely. Analytical scaling predicts energy spread values below 0.01 percentage level. Ultrahigh 5D-brightness combined with minimized energy spread opens a path towards witness beams with unprecedented ultrahigh 6D-brightness.

Long-distance travel behaviours accelerate and aggravate the large-scale spatial spreading of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xu, Zhijing; Zu, Zhenghu; Zheng, Tao; Zhang, Wendou; Xu, Qing; Liu, Jinjie

2014-01-01

The study analyses the role of long-distance travel behaviours on the large-scale spatial spreading of directly transmitted infectious diseases, focusing on two different travel types in terms of the travellers travelling to a specific group or not. For this purpose, we have formulated and analysed a metapopulation model in which the individuals in each subpopulation are organised into a scale-free contact network. The long-distance travellers between the subpopulations will temporarily change the network structure of the destination subpopulation through the "merging effects (MEs)," which indicates that the travellers will be regarded as either connected components or isolated nodes in the contact network. The results show that the presence of the MEs has constantly accelerated the transmission of the diseases and aggravated the outbreaks compared to the scenario in which the diversity of the long-distance travel types is arbitrarily discarded. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are relatively constant regarding a wide range variation of several model parameters. Our study has highlighted several important causes which could significantly affect the spatiotemporal disease dynamics neglected by the present studies.

Serial grouping of 2D-image regions with object-based attention in humans

PubMed Central

Jeurissen, Danique; Self, Matthew W; Roelfsema, Pieter R

2016-01-01

After an initial stage of local analysis within the retina and early visual pathways, the human visual system creates a structured representation of the visual scene by co-selecting image elements that are part of behaviorally relevant objects. The mechanisms underlying this perceptual organization process are only partially understood. We here investigate the time-course of perceptual grouping of two-dimensional image-regions by measuring the reaction times of human participants and report that it is associated with the gradual spread of object-based attention. Attention spreads fastest over large and homogeneous areas and is slowed down at locations that require small-scale processing. We find that the time-course of the object-based selection process is well explained by a 'growth-cone' model, which selects surface elements in an incremental, scale-dependent manner. We discuss how the visual cortical hierarchy can implement this scale-dependent spread of object-based attention, leveraging the different receptive field sizes in distinct cortical areas. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.14320.001 PMID:27291188

Cooperation without culture? The null effect of generalized trust on intentional homicide: a cross-national panel analysis, 1995-2009.

PubMed

Robbins, Blaine

2013-01-01

Sociologists, political scientists, and economists all suggest that culture plays a pivotal role in the development of large-scale cooperation. In this study, I used generalized trust as a measure of culture to explore if and how culture impacts intentional homicide, my operationalization of cooperation. I compiled multiple cross-national data sets and used pooled time-series linear regression, single-equation instrumental-variables linear regression, and fixed- and random-effects estimation techniques on an unbalanced panel of 118 countries and 232 observations spread over a 15-year time period. Results suggest that culture and large-scale cooperation form a tenuous relationship, while economic factors such as development, inequality, and geopolitics appear to drive large-scale cooperation.

The Role of Endocytosis during Morphogenetic Signaling

PubMed Central

Gonzalez-Gaitan, Marcos; Jülicher, Frank

2014-01-01

Morphogens are signaling molecules that are secreted by a localized source and spread in a target tissue where they are involved in the regulation of growth and patterning. Both the activity of morphogenetic signaling and the kinetics of ligand spreading in a tissue depend on endocytosis and intracellular trafficking. Here, we review quantitative approaches to study how large-scale morphogen profiles and signals emerge in a tissue from cellular trafficking processes and endocytic pathways. Starting from the kinetics of endosomal networks, we discuss the role of cellular trafficking and receptor dynamics in the formation of morphogen gradients. These morphogen gradients scale during growth, which implies that overall tissue size influences cellular trafficking kinetics. Finally, we discuss how such morphogen profiles can be used to control tissue growth. We emphasize the role of theory in efforts to bridge between scales. PMID:24984777

Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA

Treesearch

James A. Lutz; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; Andrea E. Thode; Jay D. Miller; Jerry F. Franklin

2009-01-01

Continental-scale studies of western North America have attributed recent increases in annual area burned and fire size to a warming climate, but these studies have focused on large fires and have left the issues of fire severity and ignition frequency unaddressed. Lightning ignitions, any of which could burn a large area given appropriate conditions for fire spread,...

Surfactant Driven Post-Deposition Spreading of Aerosols on Complex Aqueous Subphases. 2: Low Deposition Flux Representative of Aerosol Delivery to Small Airways

PubMed Central

Sharma, Ramankur; Khanal, Amsul; Corcoran, Timothy E.; Przybycien, Todd M.; Tilton, Robert D.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is associated with the accumulation of dehydrated mucus in the pulmonary airways. This alters ventilation and aerosol deposition patterns in ways that limit drug delivery to peripheral lung regions. We investigated the use of surfactant-based, self-dispersing aerosol carriers that produce surface tension gradients to drive two-dimensional transport of aerosolized medications via Marangoni flows after deposition on the airway surface liquid (ASL). We considered the post-deposition spreading of individual aerosol droplets and two-dimensional expansion of a field of aerosol droplets, when deposited at low fluxes that are representative of aerosol deposition in the small airways. Methods: We used physically entangled aqueous solutions of poly(acrylamide) or porcine gastric mucin as simple ASL mimics that adequately capture the full miscibility but slow penetration of entangled macromolecular chains of the ASL into the deposited drop. Surfactant formulations were prepared with aqueous solutions of nonionic tyloxapol or FS-3100 fluorosurfactant. Fluorescein dye served as a model “drug” tracer and to visualize the extent of post-deposition spreading. Results: The surfactants not only enhanced post-deposition spreading of individual aerosol droplets due to localized Marangoni stresses, as previously observed with macroscopic drops, but they also produced large-scale Marangoni stresses that caused the deposited aerosol fields to expand into initially unexposed regions of the subphase. We show that the latter is the main mechanism for spreading drug over large distances when aerosol is deposited at low fluxes representative of the small airways. The large scale convective expansion of the aerosol field drives the tracer (drug mimic) over areas that would cover an entire airway generation or more, in peripheral airways, where sub-monolayer droplet deposition is expected during aerosol inhalation. Conclusions: The results suggest that aerosolized surfactant formulations may provide the means to maximize deposited drug uniformity in and access to small airways. PMID:25757067

Modeling when, where, and how to manage a forest epidemic, motivated by sudden oak death in California

Treesearch

Nik J. Cunniffe; Richard C. Cobb; Ross K. Meentemeyer; David M. Rizzo; Christopher A. Gilligan

2016-01-01

Sudden oak death, caused by Phytophthora ramorum, has killed millions of oak and tanoak in California since its first detection in 1995. Despite some localized small-scale management, there has been no large-scale attempt to slow the spread of the pathogen in California. Here we use a stochastic spatially-explicit model parameterized using data on...

Using bathymetry and reflective seismic profiles to tests a suspected link between melt flux and cumulative fault heave at mid-ocean ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haughton, G.; Murton, B. J.; Le Bas, T.; Henstock, T.

2017-12-01

The interplay between magma supply and spreading rate is believed to play a major role in determining large scale seafloor morphology. Here we use bathymetry to test this relationship in areas with similar spreading rates and differing magma supplies. By using open source bathymetry data we have developed a repeatable, automated method for categorising seafloor cumulative fault heave and then attempt to identify the controlling variables. We measure the total apparent fault heave along axis and off-axis at 29°N and 60°N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge then compare this to proxies for deformation and magma supply. Two approaches are adopted for identifying faults: one using bathymetry and the other spreading-parallel seismic reflection data. The first re-examines the orthogonally spreading Broken Spur segment (26°N) spreading at 23 mm yr-1 (full rate). The other examines the Reykjanes Ridge (60°N) spreading obliquely at 21 mm yr-1 (full rate), which may be influenced by the Icelandic hotspot. Each have contrasting residual depth and structure, with the former being typical of slow spreading ridges, with marked axial valleys, whereas the latter is more typical of fast spreading ridge morphology, with smooth axial rise. We find that high total heave (indicating high tectonic spreading) on the Broken Spur segment does not correlate with high mantle Bouguer anomalies (indicating thin crust and low melt flux). From this we hypothesise that total heave on the large scale at the Broken Spur segment is not controlled by crustal thickness or melt supply. At the Raykjanes Ridge, V-shaped ridges have thicker crust (measured seismically) which converge south of Iceland. These are thought to reflect transient (every 4-6 Myrs) pulses of hot mantle radiating away from the Iceland plume. We find ridge-symmetrical variation in fault heave but with a lower frequency (6-8 Myrs) and longer wavelength (3-7 Myrs) than the V-shaped ridges. Our analysis shows that plume pulses do not correlate with cumulative fault heave. Our results raise questions about the relationship between melt flux and tectonic stretching. Other factors may be more significant such as spreading geometry, lithospheric temperature, hydrothermal alteration, or mantle heterogeneities that may not be reflected in melt productivity or faulting.

Disease properties, geography, and mitigation strategies in a simulation spread of rinderpest across the United States

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

For the past decade, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been working toward eradicating rinderpest through vaccination and intense surveillance by 2012. Because of the potential severity of a rinderpest epidemic, it is prudent to prepare for an unexpected outbreak in animal populations. There is no immunity to the disease among the livestock or wildlife in the United States (US). If rinderpest were to emerge in the US, the loss in livestock could be devastating. We predict the potential spread of rinderpest using a two-stage model for the spread of a multi-host infectious disease among agricultural animals in the US. The model incorporates large-scale interactions among US counties and the small-scale dynamics of disease spread within a county. The model epidemic was seeded in 16 locations and there was a strong dependence of the overall epidemic size on the starting location. The epidemics were classified according to overall size into small epidemics of 100 to 300 animals (failed epidemics), epidemics infecting 3 000 to 30 000 animals (medium epidemics), and the large epidemics infecting around one million beef cattle. The size of the rinderpest epidemics were directly related to the origin of the disease and whether or not the disease moved into certain key counties in high-livestock-density areas of the US. The epidemic size also depended upon response time and effectiveness of movement controls. PMID:21435236

Measuring landscape-scale spread and persistence of an invaded submerged plant community from airborne remote sensing.

PubMed

Santos, Maria J; Khanna, Shruti; Hestir, Erin L; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Ustin, Susan L

2016-09-01

Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km 2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km 2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Phase-dependent outbreak dynamics of geometrid moth linked to host plant phenology.

PubMed

Jepsen, Jane U; Hagen, Snorre B; Karlsen, Stein-Rune; Ims, Rolf A

2009-12-07

Climatically driven Moran effects have often been invoked as the most likely cause of regionally synchronized outbreaks of insect herbivores without identifying the exact mechanism. However, the degree of match between host plant and larval phenology is crucial for the growth and survival of many spring-feeding pest insects, suggesting that a phenological match/mismatch-driven Moran effect may act as a synchronizing agent. We analyse the phase-dependent spatial dynamics of defoliation caused by cyclically outbreaking geometrid moths in northern boreal birch forest in Fennoscandia through the most recent massive outbreak (2000-2008). We use satellite-derived time series of the prevalence of moth defoliation and the onset of the growing season for the entire region to investigate the link between the patterns of defoliation and outbreak spread. In addition, we examine whether a phase-dependent coherence in the pattern of spatial synchrony exists between defoliation and onset of the growing season, in order to evaluate if the degree of matching phenology between the moth and their host plant could be the mechanism behind a Moran effect. The strength of regional spatial synchrony in defoliation and the pattern of defoliation spread were both highly phase-dependent. The incipient phase of the outbreak was characterized by high regional synchrony in defoliation and long spread distances, compared with the epidemic and crash phase. Defoliation spread was best described using a two-scale stratified spread model, suggesting that defoliation spread is governed by two processes operating at different spatial scale. The pattern of phase-dependent spatial synchrony was coherent in both defoliation and onset of the growing season. This suggests that the timing of spring phenology plays a role in the large-scale synchronization of birch forest moth outbreaks.

Phase-dependent outbreak dynamics of geometrid moth linked to host plant phenology

PubMed Central

Jepsen, Jane U.; Hagen, Snorre B.; Karlsen, Stein-Rune; Ims, Rolf A.

2009-01-01

Climatically driven Moran effects have often been invoked as the most likely cause of regionally synchronized outbreaks of insect herbivores without identifying the exact mechanism. However, the degree of match between host plant and larval phenology is crucial for the growth and survival of many spring-feeding pest insects, suggesting that a phenological match/mismatch-driven Moran effect may act as a synchronizing agent. We analyse the phase-dependent spatial dynamics of defoliation caused by cyclically outbreaking geometrid moths in northern boreal birch forest in Fennoscandia through the most recent massive outbreak (2000–2008). We use satellite-derived time series of the prevalence of moth defoliation and the onset of the growing season for the entire region to investigate the link between the patterns of defoliation and outbreak spread. In addition, we examine whether a phase-dependent coherence in the pattern of spatial synchrony exists between defoliation and onset of the growing season, in order to evaluate if the degree of matching phenology between the moth and their host plant could be the mechanism behind a Moran effect. The strength of regional spatial synchrony in defoliation and the pattern of defoliation spread were both highly phase-dependent. The incipient phase of the outbreak was characterized by high regional synchrony in defoliation and long spread distances, compared with the epidemic and crash phase. Defoliation spread was best described using a two-scale stratified spread model, suggesting that defoliation spread is governed by two processes operating at different spatial scale. The pattern of phase-dependent spatial synchrony was coherent in both defoliation and onset of the growing season. This suggests that the timing of spring phenology plays a role in the large-scale synchronization of birch forest moth outbreaks. PMID:19740876

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Prince K.; Petch, Jon C.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Woolnough, Steve J.; Jiang, Xianan; Waliser, Duane E.; Caian, Mihaela; Cole, Jason; Hagos, Samson M.; Hannay, Cecile; Kim, Daehyun; Miyakawa, Tomoki; Pritchard, Michael S.; Roehrig, Romain; Shindo, Eiki; Vitart, Frederic; Wang, Hailan

2015-05-01

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

First observations of large-scale wave structure and equatorial spread F using CERTO radio beacon on the C/NOFS satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thampi, Smitha V.; Yamamoto, Mamoru; Tsunoda, Roland T.; Otsuka, Yuichi; Tsugawa, Takuya; Uemoto, Jyunpei; Ishii, Mamoru

2009-09-01

First observations of large-scale wave structure (LSWS) and the subsequent development of equatorial spread F (ESF), using total electron content (TEC) derived from the ground based reception of beacon signals from the CERTO (Coherent Electromagnetic Radio Tomography) radio beacon on board C/NOFS (Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System) satellite, are presented. Selected examples of TEC variations, using measurements made during January 2009 from Bac Lieu, Vietnam (9.2°N, 105.6°E geographic, 1.7°N magnetic dip latitude) are presented to illustrate two key findings: (1) LSWS appears to play a more important role in the development of ESF than the post-sunset rise (PSSR) of the F-layer, and (2) LSWS can appear well before E region sunset. Other findings, that LSWS does not have significant zonal drift in the initial stages of growth, and can have zonal wavelengths of several hundred kilometers, corroborate earlier reports.

From a collage of microplates to stable continental crust - an example from Precambrian Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korja, Annakaisa

2013-04-01

Svecofennian orogen (2.0-1.7 Ga) comprises the oldest undispersed orogenic belt on Baltica and Eurasian plate. Svecofennian orogenic belt evolved from a series of short-lived terrane accretions around Baltica's Archean nucleus during the formation of the Precambrian Nuna supercontinent. Geological and geophysical datasets indicate W-SW growth of Baltica with NE-ward dipping subduction zones. The data suggest a long-lived retreating subduction system in the southwestern parts whereas in the northern and central parts the northeasterly transport of continental fragments or microplates towards the continental nucleus is also documented. The geotectonic environment resembles that of the early stages of the Alpine-Himalayan or Indonesian orogenic system, in which dispersed continental fragments, arcs and microplates have been attached to the Eurasian plate margin. Thus the Svecofennian orogeny can be viewed as proxy for the initial stages of an internal orogenic system. Svecofennian orogeny is a Paleoproterozoic analogue of an evolved orogenic system where terrane accretion is followed by lateral spreading or collapse induced by change in the plate architecture. The exposed parts are composed of granitoid intrusions as well as highly deformed supracrustal units. Supracrustal rocks have been metamorphosed in LP-HT conditions in either paleo-lower-upper crust or paleo-upper-middle crust. Large scale seismic reflection profiles (BABEL and FIRE) across Baltica image the crust as a collage of terranes suggesting that the bedrock has been formed and thickened in sequential accretions. The profiles also image three fold layering of the thickened crust (>55 km) to transect old terrane boundaries, suggesting that the over-thickened bedrock structures have been rearranged in post-collisional spreading and/or collapse processes. The middle crust displays typical large scale flow structures: herringbone and anticlinal ramps, rooted onto large scale listric surfaces also suggestive of spreading. Close to the original ocean-continent plate boundary, in the core of the Svecofennian orogen, the thickened accretionary crust carries pervasive stretching lineations at surface and seismic vp-velocity anisotropy in the crust. The direction of spreading and crustal flow seems to be diverted by shapes of the pre-existing boundaries. It is concluded that lateral spreading and midcrustal flow not only rearrange the bedrock architecture but also stabilize the young accreted continental crust in emerging internal orogenic systems. Pre-existing microplate/terrane boundaries will affect the final architecture of the orogenic belt.

A Multi-agent Simulation Tool for Micro-scale Contagion Spread Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koch, Daniel B

2016-01-01

Within the disaster preparedness and emergency response community, there is interest in how contagions spread person-to-person at large gatherings and if mitigation strategies can be employed to reduce new infections. A contagion spread simulation module was developed for the Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit that allows a user to see how a geographically accurate layout of the gathering space helps or hinders the spread of a contagion. The results can inform mitigation strategies based on changing the physical layout of an event space. A case study was conducted for a particular event to calibrate the underlying simulation model. Thismore » paper presents implementation details of the simulation code that incorporates agent movement and disease propagation. Elements of the case study are presented to show how the tool can be used.« less

Cooperation without Culture? The Null Effect of Generalized Trust on Intentional Homicide: A Cross-National Panel Analysis, 1995–2009

PubMed Central

Robbins, Blaine

2013-01-01

Sociologists, political scientists, and economists all suggest that culture plays a pivotal role in the development of large-scale cooperation. In this study, I used generalized trust as a measure of culture to explore if and how culture impacts intentional homicide, my operationalization of cooperation. I compiled multiple cross-national data sets and used pooled time-series linear regression, single-equation instrumental-variables linear regression, and fixed- and random-effects estimation techniques on an unbalanced panel of 118 countries and 232 observations spread over a 15-year time period. Results suggest that culture and large-scale cooperation form a tenuous relationship, while economic factors such as development, inequality, and geopolitics appear to drive large-scale cooperation. PMID:23527211

Flow and temperature fields following injection of a jet normal to a cross stream

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, R. J.; Ramsey, J. W.; Eriksen, V. L.

1978-01-01

The interaction of a jet entering into a freestream normal to the main flow direction has been studied with particular attention directed to visualization of the large-scale flow interactions and to measurement of the film-cooling performance. Large eddies are apparent downstream of the entering jet even at moderate blowing rate (defined as the ratio of the mass velocity of the jet to the mass velocity of the freestream). At higher blowing rate, there is only intermittent contact between the mass from the jet and the downstream wall. The film cooling downstream from a single normal jet yields a lower centerline effectiveness compared to an inclined jet through a greater lateral spreading. The greater spreading provides a more uniform effectiveness across the span of the downstream wall, in particular at large blowing rate.

Laboratory modeling of aspects of large fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrier, G. F.; Fendell, F. E.; Fleeter, R. D.; Gat, N.; Cohen, L. M.

1984-04-01

The design, construction, and use of a laboratory-scale combustion tunnel for simulating aspects of large-scale free-burning fires are described. The facility consists of an enclosed, rectangular-cross section (1.12 m wide x 1.27 m high) test section of about 5.6 m in length, fitted with large sidewall windows for viewing. A long upwind section permits smoothing (by screens and honeycombs) of a forced-convective flow, generated by a fan and adjustable in wind speed (up to a maximum speed of about 20 m/s prior to smoothing). Special provision is made for unconstrained ascent of a strongly buoyant plume, the duct over the test section being about 7 m in height. Also, a translatable test-section ceiling can be used to prevent jet-type spreading into the duct of the impressed flow; that is, the wind arriving at a site (say) half-way along the test section can be made (by ceiling movement) approximately the same as that at the leading edge of the test section with a fully open duct (fully retracted ceiling). Of particular interest here are the rate and structure of wind-aided flame spread streamwise along a uniform matrix of vertically oriented small fuel elements (such as toothpicks or coffee-strirrers), implanted in clay stratum on the test-section floor; this experiment is motivated by flame spread across strewn debris, such as may be anticipated in an urban environment after severe blast damage.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less

Theoretical analysis of microwave propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parl, S.; Malaga, A.

1984-04-01

This report documents a comprehensive investigation of microwave propagation. The structure of line-of-sight multipath is determined and the impact on practical diversity is discussed. A new model of diffraction propagation for multiple rounded obstacles is developed. A troposcatter model valid at microwave frequencies is described. New results for the power impulse response, and the delay spread and Doppler spread are developed. A 2-component model separating large and small scale scatter effects is proposed. The prediction techniques for diffraction and troposcatter have been implemented in a computer program intended as a tool to analyze propagation experiments.

Collective Influence of Multiple Spreaders Evaluated by Tracing Real Information Flow in Large-Scale Social Networks.

PubMed

Teng, Xian; Pei, Sen; Morone, Flaviano; Makse, Hernán A

2016-10-26

Identifying the most influential spreaders that maximize information flow is a central question in network theory. Recently, a scalable method called "Collective Influence (CI)" has been put forward through collective influence maximization. In contrast to heuristic methods evaluating nodes' significance separately, CI method inspects the collective influence of multiple spreaders. Despite that CI applies to the influence maximization problem in percolation model, it is still important to examine its efficacy in realistic information spreading. Here, we examine real-world information flow in various social and scientific platforms including American Physical Society, Facebook, Twitter and LiveJournal. Since empirical data cannot be directly mapped to ideal multi-source spreading, we leverage the behavioral patterns of users extracted from data to construct "virtual" information spreading processes. Our results demonstrate that the set of spreaders selected by CI can induce larger scale of information propagation. Moreover, local measures as the number of connections or citations are not necessarily the deterministic factors of nodes' importance in realistic information spreading. This result has significance for rankings scientists in scientific networks like the APS, where the commonly used number of citations can be a poor indicator of the collective influence of authors in the community.

Identifying influential spreaders in complex networks through local effective spreading paths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Yi, Dongyun; Zhao, Chengli

2017-05-01

How to effectively identify a set of influential spreaders in complex networks is of great theoretical and practical value, which can help to inhibit the rapid spread of epidemics, promote the sales of products by word-of-mouth advertising, and so on. A naive strategy is to select the top ranked nodes as identified by some centrality indices, and other strategies are mainly based on greedy methods and heuristic methods. However, most of those approaches did not concern the connections between nodes. Usually, the distances between the selected spreaders are very close, leading to a serious overlapping of their influence. As a consequence, the global influence of the spreaders in networks will be greatly reduced, which largely restricts the performance of those methods. In this paper, a simple and efficient method is proposed to identify a set of discrete yet influential spreaders. By analyzing the spreading paths in the network, we present the concept of effective spreading paths and measure the influence of nodes via expectation calculation. The numerical analysis in undirected and directed networks all show that our proposed method outperforms many other centrality-based and heuristic benchmarks, especially in large-scale networks. Besides, experimental results on different spreading models and parameters demonstrates the stability and wide applicability of our method.

Large-scale load tests and data base of spread footings on sand

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-05-01

The objective of the experiment is to develop and evaluate the relative merit of warning signs and other devices, used singly or in combination, in improving traffic flow and safety in the presence of a variety of different types of roadside friction...

Some aspects of large-scale travelling ionospheric disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, G. G.

1992-06-01

On two occasions the speeds and directions of travel of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LS-TIDs) following geomagnetic substorm onsets, have been calculated for the propagation of these disturbances in both hemispheres of the earth. N(h) analyses have been used to produce height change profiles at a fixed frequency from which time shifts between stations (used for the speed and direction-of-travel values) have been calculated. Fixed-frequency phase path measurements at Bribie Island for two events reveal wavetrains with periodicities around 17 min associated with these disturbances. Another event recorded a periodicity of 19 min. Also, for two of the events additional periodicities around 30 min were found. These wavetrains along with the macroscale height changes and electron density depletions associated with these LS-TIDs are essentially the same as the ionospheric structure changes observed during the passage of night-time medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MS-TIDs). However, unlike these MS-TIDs, the LS-TIDs are generally not associated with the recording of spread-F on ionograms. Possible reasons for this difference are discussed as well as the special conditions which probably prevail on the few occasions when spread-F is associated with LS-TIDs.

Relative dispersion of clustered drifters in a small micro-tidal estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suara, Kabir; Chanson, Hubert; Borgas, Michael; Brown, Richard J.

2017-07-01

Small tide-dominated estuaries are affected by large scale flow structures which combine with the underlying bed generated smaller scale turbulence to significantly increase the magnitude of horizontal diffusivity. Field estimates of horizontal diffusivity and its associated scales are however rare due to limitations in instrumentation. Data from multiple deployments of low and high resolution clusters of GPS-drifters are used to examine the dynamics of a surface flow in a small micro-tidal estuary through relative dispersion analyses. During the field study, cluster diffusivity, which combines both large- and small-scale processes ranged between, 0.01 and 3.01 m2/s for spreading clusters and, -0.06 and -4.2 m2/s for contracting clusters. Pair-particle dispersion, Dp2, was scale dependent and grew as Dp2 ∼ t1.83 in streamwise and Dp2 ∼ t0.8 in cross-stream directions. At small separation scale, pair-particle (d < 0.5 m) relative diffusivity followed the Richardson's 4/3 power law and became weaker as separation scale increases. Pair-particle diffusivity was described as Kp ∼ d1.01 and Kp ∼ d0.85 in the streamwise and cross-stream directions, respectively for separation scales ranging from 0.1 to 10 m. Two methods were used to identify the mechanism responsible for dispersion within the channel. The results clearly revealed the importance of strain fields (stretching and shearing) in the spreading of particles within a small micro-tidal channel. The work provided input for modelling dispersion of passive particle in shallow micro-tidal estuaries where these were not previously experimentally studied.

Experimental study and large eddy simulation of effect of terrain slope on marginal burning in shrub fuel beds

Treesearch

Xiangyang Zhou; Shankar Mahalingam; David Weise

2007-01-01

This paper presents a combined study of laboratory scale fire spread experiments and a three-dimensional large eddy simulation (LES) to analyze the effect of terrain slope on marginal burning behavior in live chaparral shrub fuel beds. Line fire was initiated in single species fuel beds of four common chaparral plants under various fuel bed configurations and ambient...

Coastal river plumes: Collisions and coalescence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warrick, Jonathan; Farnsworth, Katherine L

2017-01-01

Plumes of buoyant river water spread in the ocean from river mouths, and these plumes influence water quality, sediment dispersal, primary productivity, and circulation along the world’s coasts. Most investigations of river plumes have focused on large rivers in a coastal region, for which the physical spreading of the plume is assumed to be independent from the influence of other buoyant plumes. Here we provide new understanding of the spreading patterns of multiple plumes interacting along simplified coastal settings by investigating: (i) the relative likelihood of plume-to-plume interactions at different settings using geophysical scaling, (ii) the diversity of plume frontal collision types and the effects of these collisions on spreading patterns of plume waters using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, and (iii) the fundamental differences in plume spreading patterns between coasts with single and multiple rivers using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Geophysical scaling suggests that coastal margins with numerous small rivers (watershed areas < 10,000 km2), such as found along most active geologic coastal margins, were much more likely to have river plumes that collide and interact than coastal settings with large rivers (watershed areas > 100,000 km2). When two plume fronts meet, several types of collision attributes were found, including refection, subduction and occlusion. We found that the relative differences in pre-collision plume densities and thicknesses strongly influenced the resulting collision types. The three-dimensional spreading of buoyant plumes was found to be influenced by the presence of additional rivers for all modeled scenarios, including those with and without Coriolis and wind. Combined, these results suggest that plume-to-plume interactions are common phenomena for coastal regions offshore of the world’s smaller rivers and for coastal settings with multiple river mouths in close proximity, and that the spreading and fate of river waters in these settings will be strongly influenced by these interactions. We conclude that new investigations are needed to characterize how plumes interact offshore of river mouths to better understand the transport and fate of terrestrial sources of pollution, nutrients and other materials in the ocean.

Landscape corridors can increase invasion by an exotic species and reduce diversity of native species

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although corridors have become commonplace in conservation to mitigate negative effects of habitat fragmentation, concerns persist that they may facilitate spread of invasive species. In a large-scale experiment, we measured effects of corridors on invasive fire ants, Solenopsis invicta, and on comm...

Invasion complexity at large spatial scales is an emergent property of interactions among landscape characteristics and invader traits

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the potential for invasive spread is an important consideration for novel agricultural species that may be translocated or introduced into new regions. However, estimating invasion risks remains a challenging problem, particularly in the context of real, complex landscapes. There is ...

Mate Finding, Sexual Spore Production, and the Spread of Fungal Plant Parasites.

PubMed

Hamelin, Frédéric M; Castella, François; Doli, Valentin; Marçais, Benoît; Ravigné, Virginie; Lewis, Mark A

2016-04-01

Sexual reproduction and dispersal are often coupled in organisms mixing sexual and asexual reproduction, such as fungi. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of mate limitation on the spreading speed of fungal plant parasites. Starting from a simple model with two coupled partial differential equations, we take advantage of the fact that we are interested in the dynamics over large spatial and temporal scales to reduce the model to a single equation. We obtain a simple expression for speed of spread, accounting for both sexual and asexual reproduction. Taking Black Sigatoka disease of banana plants as a case study, the model prediction is in close agreement with the actual spreading speed (100 km per year), whereas a similar model without mate limitation predicts a wave speed one order of magnitude greater. We discuss the implications of these results to control parasites in which sexual reproduction and dispersal are intrinsically coupled.

Conditions for Viral Influence Spreading through Multiplex Correlated Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yanqing; Havlin, Shlomo; Makse, Hernán A.

2014-04-01

A fundamental problem in network science is to predict how certain individuals are able to initiate new networks to spring up "new ideas." Frequently, these changes in trends are triggered by a few innovators who rapidly impose their ideas through "viral" influence spreading, producing cascades of followers and fragmenting an old network to create a new one. Typical examples include the rise of scientific ideas or abrupt changes in social media, like the rise of Facebook to the detriment of Myspace. How this process arises in practice has not been conclusively demonstrated. Here, we show that a condition for sustaining a viral spreading process is the existence of a multiplex-correlated graph with hidden "influence links." Analytical solutions predict percolation-phase transitions, either abrupt or continuous, where networks are disintegrated through viral cascades of followers, as in empirical data. Our modeling predicts the strict conditions to sustain a large viral spreading via a scaling form of the local correlation function between multilayers, which we also confirm empirically. Ultimately, the theory predicts the conditions for viral cascading in a large class of multiplex networks ranging from social to financial systems and markets.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

DOE PAGES

Xavier, Prince K.; Petch, Jon C.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; ...

2015-05-26

We present an analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests thatmore » the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. In conclusion, the wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. Additionally, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.« less

Weak gravitational lensing due to large-scale structure of the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaroszynski, Michal; Park, Changbom; Paczynski, Bohdan; Gott, J. Richard, III

1990-01-01

The effect of the large-scale structure of the universe on the propagation of light rays is studied. The development of the large-scale density fluctuations in the omega = 1 universe is calculated within the cold dark matter scenario using a smooth particle approximation. The propagation of about 10 to the 6th random light rays between the redshift z = 5 and the observer was followed. It is found that the effect of shear is negligible, and the amplification of single images is dominated by the matter in the beam. The spread of amplifications is very small. Therefore, the filled-beam approximation is very good for studies of strong lensing by galaxies or clusters of galaxies. In the simulation, the column density was averaged over a comoving area of approximately (1/h Mpc)-squared. No case of a strong gravitational lensing was found, i.e., no 'over-focused' image that would suggest that a few images might be present. Therefore, the large-scale structure of the universe as it is presently known does not produce multiple images with gravitational lensing on a scale larger than clusters of galaxies.

South Asian monsoon precipitation in CMIP 5: a link between inter-model spread and the representations of tropical convection

DOE PAGES

Hagos, Samson; Leung, L. Ruby; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2018-03-20

CMIP 5 models exhibit a mean dry bias and a large inter-model spread in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation but the origins of the bias and spread are not well understood. Using moisture and energy budget analysis that exploits the weak temperature gradients in the tropics, we derived a non-linear relationship between the normalized precipitation and normalized precipitable water that is similar to the non-linear relationship between precipitation and precipitable water found in previous observational studies. About half of the 21 models analyzed fall in the steep gradient of the non-linear relationship where small differences in the normalized precipitable watermore » in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) manifest in large differences in normalized precipitation in the region. Models with larger normalized precipitable water in the EIO during spring contribute disproportionately to the large inter-model spread and multi-model mean dry bias in monsoon precipitation through perturbations of the large-scale winds. Thus the intermodel spread in precipitable water over EIO leads to the dry bias in the multi-model mean South Asian monsoon precipitation. The models with high normalized precipitable water over EIO also project larger response to warming and dominate the inter-model spread in the multi-model projections of monsoon rainfall. Conversely, models on the flat side of the relationship between normalized precipitation and precipitable water are in better agreement with each other and with observations. On average these models project a smaller increase in the projected monsoon precipitation than that from multi-model mean. As a result, this study identified the normalized precipitable water over EIO, which is determined by the relationship between the profiles of convergence and moisture and therefore is an essential outcome of the treatment of convection, as a key metric for understanding model biases and differentiating model skill in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation.« less

South Asian monsoon precipitation in CMIP 5: a link between inter-model spread and the representations of tropical convection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson; Leung, L. Ruby; Ashfaq, Moetasim

CMIP 5 models exhibit a mean dry bias and a large inter-model spread in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation but the origins of the bias and spread are not well understood. Using moisture and energy budget analysis that exploits the weak temperature gradients in the tropics, we derived a non-linear relationship between the normalized precipitation and normalized precipitable water that is similar to the non-linear relationship between precipitation and precipitable water found in previous observational studies. About half of the 21 models analyzed fall in the steep gradient of the non-linear relationship where small differences in the normalized precipitable watermore » in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) manifest in large differences in normalized precipitation in the region. Models with larger normalized precipitable water in the EIO during spring contribute disproportionately to the large inter-model spread and multi-model mean dry bias in monsoon precipitation through perturbations of the large-scale winds. Thus the intermodel spread in precipitable water over EIO leads to the dry bias in the multi-model mean South Asian monsoon precipitation. The models with high normalized precipitable water over EIO also project larger response to warming and dominate the inter-model spread in the multi-model projections of monsoon rainfall. Conversely, models on the flat side of the relationship between normalized precipitation and precipitable water are in better agreement with each other and with observations. On average these models project a smaller increase in the projected monsoon precipitation than that from multi-model mean. As a result, this study identified the normalized precipitable water over EIO, which is determined by the relationship between the profiles of convergence and moisture and therefore is an essential outcome of the treatment of convection, as a key metric for understanding model biases and differentiating model skill in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation.« less

Effects of fire suppression under a changing climate in Pacific Northwest mixed-pine forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanan, E. J.; Tague, C.; Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Kolden, C.; Adam, J. C.

2017-12-01

The frequency of large and severe wildfires has increased over recent decades in many regions across the Western U.S., including the Pacific and Inland Northwest. This increase is likely driven in large part by wildfire suppression, which has promoted fuel accumulation in western landscapes. Recent studies also suggest that anthropogenic climate change intensifies wildfire activity by increasing fuel aridity. However, the contribution of these drivers to observed changes in fire regime is not well quantified at regional scales. Understanding the relative influence of climate and fire suppression is crucial for both projecting the effects of climate change on future fire spread, and for developing site-specific fuel management strategies under a new climate paradigm. To quantify the extent to which fire suppression and climate change have contributed to increases in wildfire activity in the Pacific Northwest, we conduct a modeling experiment using the ecohydrologic model RHESSys and the coupled stochastic fire spread model WMFire. Specifically, we use historical climate inputs from GCMs, combined with fire suppression scenarios to gauge the extent to which these drivers promote the spread of severe wildfires in Johnson Creek, a large (565-km2) mixed-pine dominated subcatchment of the Southfork Salmon River; part of the larger Columbia River Basin. We run 500 model iterations for suppressed, intermediate, and unsuppressed fire management scenarios, both with and without climate change in a factorial design, focusing on fire spread surrounding two extreme fire years in Johnson Creek (1998 and 2007). After deriving fire spread "fingerprints" for each combination of possible drivers, we evaluate the extent to which these fingerprints match observations in the fire record. We expect that climate change plays a role in the spread of large and severe wildfires in Johnson Creek, but the magnitude of this effect is mediated by prior suppression. Preliminary results suggest that management strategies aimed at reducing the extent of contiguous even-aged fuels may help curtail climate-driven increases in wildfire severity in Pacific Northwest watersheds.

About Ganoderma boninense in oil palm plantations of Sumatra and peninsular Malaysia: Ancient population expansion, extensive gene flow and large scale dispersion ability.

PubMed

Mercière, Maxime; Boulord, Romain; Carasco-Lacombe, Catherine; Klopp, Christophe; Lee, Yang-Ping; Tan, Joon-Sheong; Syed Alwee, Sharifah S R; Zaremski, Alba; De Franqueville, Hubert; Breton, Frédéric; Camus-Kulandaivelu, Létizia

Wood rot fungi form one of the main classes of phytopathogenic fungus. The group includes many species, but has remained poorly studied. Many species belonging to the Ganoderma genus are well known for causing decay in a wide range of tree species around the world. Ganoderma boninense, causal agent of oil palm basal stem rot, is responsible for considerable yield losses in Southeast Asian oil palm plantations. In a large-scale sampling operation, 357 sporophores were collected from oil palm plantations spread over peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra and genotyped using 11 SSR markers. The genotyping of these samples made it possible to investigate the population structure and demographic history of G. boninense across the oldest known area of interaction between oil palm and G. boninense. Results show that G. boninense possesses a high degree of genetic diversity and no detectable genetic structure at the scale of Sumatra and peninsular Malaysia. The fact that few duplicate genotypes were found in several studies including this one supports the hypothesis of spore dispersal in the spread of G. boninense. Meanwhile, spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that G. boninense is able to disperse across both short and long distances. These results bring new insight into mechanisms by which G. boninense spreads in oil palm plantations. Finally, the use of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) modelling indicates that G. boninense has undergone a demographic expansion in the past, probably before the oil palm was introduced into Southeast Asia. Copyright © 2017 British Mycological Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MANGO Imager Network Observations of Geomagnetic Storm Impact on Midlatitude 630 nm Airglow Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, E. A.; Bhatt, A.

2017-12-01

The Midlatitude Allsky-imaging Network for GeoSpace Observations (MANGO) is a network of imagers filtered at 630 nm spread across the continental United States. MANGO is used to image large-scale airglow and aurora features and observes the generation, propagation, and dissipation of medium and large-scale wave activity in the subauroral, mid and low-latitude thermosphere. This network consists of seven all-sky imagers providing continuous coverage over the United States and extending south into Mexico. This network sees high levels of medium and large scale wave activity due to both neutral and geomagnetic storm forcing. The geomagnetic storm observations largely fall into two categories: Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs and Large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs). In addition, less-often observed effects include anomalous airglow brightening, bright swirls, and frozen-in traveling structures. We will present an analysis of multiple events observed over four years of MANGO network operation. We will provide both statistics on the cumulative observations and a case study of the "Memorial Day Storm" on May 27, 2017.

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control

PubMed Central

Tildesley, Michael J.; Smith, Gary; Keeling, Matt J.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we simulate outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, USA – after the introduction of a state-wide movement ban – as they might unfold in the presence of mitigation strategies. We have adapted a model previously used to investigate FMD control policies in the UK to examine the potential for disease spread given an infection seeded in each county in Pennsylvania. The results are highly dependent upon the county of introduction and the spatial scale of transmission. Should the transmission kernel be identical to that for the UK, the epidemic impact is limited to fewer than 20 premises, regardless of the county of introduction. However, for wider kernels where infection can spread further, outbreaks seeded in or near the county with highest density of premises and animals result in large epidemics (>150 premises). Ring culling and vaccination reduce epidemic size, with the optimal radius of the rings being dependent upon the county of introduction. Should the kernel width exceed a given county-dependent threshold, ring culling is unable to control the epidemic. We find that a vaccinate-to-live policy is generally preferred to ring culling (in terms of reducing the overall number of premises culled), indicating that well-targeted control can dramatically reduce the risk of large scale outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease occurring in Pennsylvania. PMID:22169708

On the Relationship between Transitional and Fully Turbulent Shear Flow.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-01

the spot a single large coherent eddy on which mall scale turbulence is superimposed or is it an assembly of eddies, both large and mall ...laminar boundary layer. These finds provided the first link between stability theory and the actual spreading of turbu- lence. We expected the...findings of the transitional spot and its re- lation to the transition process in boundary layers flow were drawn togeth- er into an organized theory

Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

PubMed

Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

2012-08-01

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M. Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

2012-08-01

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2016-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2017-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

Using a Large Scale Computational Model to Study the Effect of Longitudinal and Radial Electrical Coupling in the Cochlea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mistrík, Pavel; Ashmore, Jonathan

2009-02-01

We describe a large scale computational model of electrical current flow in the cochlea which is constructed by a flexible Modified Nodal Analysis algorithm to incorporate electrical components representing hair cells and the intercellular radial and longitudinal current flow. The model is used as a laboratory to study the effects of changing longitudinal gap junctional coupling, and shows the way in which cochlear microphonic spreads and tuning is affected. The process for incorporating mechanical longitudinal coupling and feedback is described. We find a difference in tuning and attenuation depending on whether longitudinal or radial couplings are altered.

Integrating Cloud-Computing-Specific Model into Aircraft Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhimin, Tian; Qi, Lin; Guangwen, Yang

Cloud Computing is becoming increasingly relevant, as it will enable companies involved in spreading this technology to open the door to Web 3.0. In the paper, the new categories of services introduced will slowly replace many types of computational resources currently used. In this perspective, grid computing, the basic element for the large scale supply of cloud services, will play a fundamental role in defining how those services will be provided. The paper tries to integrate cloud computing specific model into aircraft design. This work has acquired good results in sharing licenses of large scale and expensive software, such as CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics), UG, CATIA, and so on.

Reprogramming Enhancers to Drive Metastasis.

PubMed

Mostoslavsky, Raul; Bardeesy, Nabeel

2017-08-24

Acquired molecular changes can promote the spreading of primary tumor cells to distant tissues. In this issue of Cell, Roe et al. show that metastatic progression of pancreatic cancer involves large-scale enhancer reprogramming by Foxa1, which activates transcriptional program specifying early endodermal stem cells. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spreading Resistance on Thin Film Contacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y. Y.; Hung, D.; Gilgenbach, R. M.

2012-10-01

Electrical contact [1] is important to wire-array z-pinches, metal-insulator-vacuum junctions, and high power microwave sources, etc. Contact problems account for 40 percent of all electrical failures, from small scale consumer electronics to large scale defense and aerospace systems. The crowding of the current lines at contacts leads to enhanced localized heating, a measure of which is the spreading resistance (Rs). For a microscopic area of contact (the ``a-spot'' [1]) on a thin film, we calculate Rs in both Cartesian and cylindrical geometries [2]. In the limit of small film thickness, h, the normalized thin film spreading resistance converges to the finite values, 2.77 for the Cartesian case and 0.28 for the cylindrical case. These same finite limits are found to be applicable to the a-spot between bulk solids in the high frequency limit if the skin depth is identified with h. Extension to a general a-spot geometry is proposed [2]. [4pt] [1] R. Holm, Electric Contacts, 4th ed., Springer (1967). [0pt] [2] P. Zhang et al., IEEE Trans. Electron Devices 59, 1936 (2012).

Mechanics of gravitational spreading of steep-sided ridges («sackung»)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, W.Z.; Varnes, D.J.

1987-01-01

Large-scale gravitational spreading of steep-sided ridges characterized by linear fissures, trenches, and uphill-facing scarps high on the sides and tops of ridges are known worldwide. Such spreading, termed sackung, is commonly attributed to pervasive plastic deformation of a rock mass, and is here analyzed as such. Beginning with a previously developed exact elastic solution for gravity-induced stresses in a symmetric ridge, stresses calculated from the exact solution are used in the Coulomb failure criterion to determine the extent of ridge failure under self-weight. Finally, when the regions of failure are established, a plastic flow solution is applied to predict the location of and sense of movement on upward-facing scarps near ridge crests and other features common in sackung. ?? 1987 International Assocaition of Engineering Geology.

Synergetic effect of laser patterning and micro coining for controlled lubricant propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenkranz, Andreas; Gruetzmacher, Philipp G.; Szurdak, Adam; Gachot, Carsten; Hirt, Gerhard; Muecklich, Frank

2016-09-01

In this study, the anisotropic spreading behavior of Poly-(alpha)-olefin oil (kinematic viscosity of 7.8 cSt at 100 °C) on stainless steel samples (AISI 403) having periodic, channel-like structures produced by hot micro-coining (periodicity of 400 μm and depth of 40 μm) as well as multi-scale structures (coining and laser patterning) was investigated. These results were compared to the behavior of periodic channels fabricated by direct laser interference patterning (periodicity of 5 μm and depth of 1 μm). The spreading behavior of a droplet (3 μl) was studied for a polished reference as well as for all modified surfaces and recorded by a digital light microscope. From this study, it can be concluded that the polished reference leads to an isotropic spreading behavior resulting from the stochastic surface roughness without any preferential orientation whereas all structured samples induce an anisotropic spreading behavior but with different degrees of anisotropy. The observed behavior can be well correlated with pinning induced by the grooves thus hindering the droplet propagation perpendicular to the grooves and the generation of capillary forces which favor the droplet movement along the grooves. It could be proved that the structural depth is a very desicive parameter with regard to the resulting spreading behavior. The multi-scale surface combining large structural depths and the steeper pattern geometry of the micro-coined surface with much smaller grooves of the laser-structure shows the largest anisotropic spreading behavior due to a stronger pinning and increased capillary forces.

Collective Influence of Multiple Spreaders Evaluated by Tracing Real Information Flow in Large-Scale Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Xian; Pei, Sen; Morone, Flaviano; Makse, Hernán A.

2016-10-01

Identifying the most influential spreaders that maximize information flow is a central question in network theory. Recently, a scalable method called “Collective Influence (CI)” has been put forward through collective influence maximization. In contrast to heuristic methods evaluating nodes’ significance separately, CI method inspects the collective influence of multiple spreaders. Despite that CI applies to the influence maximization problem in percolation model, it is still important to examine its efficacy in realistic information spreading. Here, we examine real-world information flow in various social and scientific platforms including American Physical Society, Facebook, Twitter and LiveJournal. Since empirical data cannot be directly mapped to ideal multi-source spreading, we leverage the behavioral patterns of users extracted from data to construct “virtual” information spreading processes. Our results demonstrate that the set of spreaders selected by CI can induce larger scale of information propagation. Moreover, local measures as the number of connections or citations are not necessarily the deterministic factors of nodes’ importance in realistic information spreading. This result has significance for rankings scientists in scientific networks like the APS, where the commonly used number of citations can be a poor indicator of the collective influence of authors in the community.

Collective Influence of Multiple Spreaders Evaluated by Tracing Real Information Flow in Large-Scale Social Networks

PubMed Central

Teng, Xian; Pei, Sen; Morone, Flaviano; Makse, Hernán A.

2016-01-01

Identifying the most influential spreaders that maximize information flow is a central question in network theory. Recently, a scalable method called “Collective Influence (CI)” has been put forward through collective influence maximization. In contrast to heuristic methods evaluating nodes’ significance separately, CI method inspects the collective influence of multiple spreaders. Despite that CI applies to the influence maximization problem in percolation model, it is still important to examine its efficacy in realistic information spreading. Here, we examine real-world information flow in various social and scientific platforms including American Physical Society, Facebook, Twitter and LiveJournal. Since empirical data cannot be directly mapped to ideal multi-source spreading, we leverage the behavioral patterns of users extracted from data to construct “virtual” information spreading processes. Our results demonstrate that the set of spreaders selected by CI can induce larger scale of information propagation. Moreover, local measures as the number of connections or citations are not necessarily the deterministic factors of nodes’ importance in realistic information spreading. This result has significance for rankings scientists in scientific networks like the APS, where the commonly used number of citations can be a poor indicator of the collective influence of authors in the community. PMID:27782207

War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies.

PubMed

Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E; Turner, Edward A L; Gavrilets, Sergey

2013-10-08

How did human societies evolve from small groups, integrated by face-to-face cooperation, to huge anonymous societies of today, typically organized as states? Why is there so much variation in the ability of different human populations to construct viable states? Existing theories are usually formulated as verbal models and, as a result, do not yield sharply defined, quantitative predictions that could be unambiguously tested with data. Here we develop a cultural evolutionary model that predicts where and when the largest-scale complex societies arose in human history. The central premise of the model, which we test, is that costly institutions that enabled large human groups to function without splitting up evolved as a result of intense competition between societies-primarily warfare. Warfare intensity, in turn, depended on the spread of historically attested military technologies (e.g., chariots and cavalry) and on geographic factors (e.g., rugged landscape). The model was simulated within a realistic landscape of the Afroeurasian landmass and its predictions were tested against a large dataset documenting the spatiotemporal distribution of historical large-scale societies in Afroeurasia between 1,500 BCE and 1,500 CE. The model-predicted pattern of spread of large-scale societies was very similar to the observed one. Overall, the model explained 65% of variance in the data. An alternative model, omitting the effect of diffusing military technologies, explained only 16% of variance. Our results support theories that emphasize the role of institutions in state-building and suggest a possible explanation why a long history of statehood is positively correlated with political stability, institutional quality, and income per capita.

War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies

PubMed Central

Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E.; Turner, Edward A. L.; Gavrilets, Sergey

2013-01-01

How did human societies evolve from small groups, integrated by face-to-face cooperation, to huge anonymous societies of today, typically organized as states? Why is there so much variation in the ability of different human populations to construct viable states? Existing theories are usually formulated as verbal models and, as a result, do not yield sharply defined, quantitative predictions that could be unambiguously tested with data. Here we develop a cultural evolutionary model that predicts where and when the largest-scale complex societies arose in human history. The central premise of the model, which we test, is that costly institutions that enabled large human groups to function without splitting up evolved as a result of intense competition between societies—primarily warfare. Warfare intensity, in turn, depended on the spread of historically attested military technologies (e.g., chariots and cavalry) and on geographic factors (e.g., rugged landscape). The model was simulated within a realistic landscape of the Afroeurasian landmass and its predictions were tested against a large dataset documenting the spatiotemporal distribution of historical large-scale societies in Afroeurasia between 1,500 BCE and 1,500 CE. The model-predicted pattern of spread of large-scale societies was very similar to the observed one. Overall, the model explained 65% of variance in the data. An alternative model, omitting the effect of diffusing military technologies, explained only 16% of variance. Our results support theories that emphasize the role of institutions in state-building and suggest a possible explanation why a long history of statehood is positively correlated with political stability, institutional quality, and income per capita. PMID:24062433

Spatial spreading of infectious disease via local and national mobility networks in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Okyu; Son, Woo-Sik

2017-12-01

We study the spread of infectious disease based on local- and national-scale mobility networks. We construct a local mobility network using data on urban bus services to estimate local-scale movement of people. We also construct a national mobility network from orientation-destination data of vehicular traffic between highway tollgates to evaluate national-scale movement of people. A metapopulation model is used to simulate the spread of epidemics. Thus, the number of infected people is simulated using a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model within the administrative division, and inter-division spread of infected people is determined through local and national mobility networks. In this paper, we consider two scenarios for epidemic spread. In the first, the infectious disease only spreads through local-scale movement of people, that is, the local mobility network. In the second, it spreads via both local and national mobility networks. For the former, the simulation results show infected people sequentially spread to neighboring divisions. Yet for the latter, we observe a faster spreading pattern to distant divisions. Thus, we confirm the national mobility network enhances synchronization among the incidence profiles of all administrative divisions.

Large Scale Flame Spread Environmental Characterization Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayman, Lauren K.; Olson, Sandra L.; Gokoghi, Suleyman A.; Brooker, John E.; Ferkul, Paul V.; Kacher, Henry F.

2013-01-01

Under the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Spacecraft Fire Safety Demonstration Project (SFSDP), as a risk mitigation activity in support of the development of a large-scale fire demonstration experiment in microgravity, flame-spread tests were conducted in normal gravity on thin, cellulose-based fuels in a sealed chamber. The primary objective of the tests was to measure pressure rise in a chamber as sample material, burning direction (upward/downward), total heat release, heat release rate, and heat loss mechanisms were varied between tests. A Design of Experiments (DOE) method was imposed to produce an array of tests from a fixed set of constraints and a coupled response model was developed. Supplementary tests were run without experimental design to additionally vary select parameters such as initial chamber pressure. The starting chamber pressure for each test was set below atmospheric to prevent chamber overpressure. Bottom ignition, or upward propagating burns, produced rapid acceleratory turbulent flame spread. Pressure rise in the chamber increases as the amount of fuel burned increases mainly because of the larger amount of heat generation and, to a much smaller extent, due to the increase in gaseous number of moles. Top ignition, or downward propagating burns, produced a steady flame spread with a very small flat flame across the burning edge. Steady-state pressure is achieved during downward flame spread as the pressure rises and plateaus. This indicates that the heat generation by the flame matches the heat loss to surroundings during the longer, slower downward burns. One heat loss mechanism included mounting a heat exchanger directly above the burning sample in the path of the plume to act as a heat sink and more efficiently dissipate the heat due to the combustion event. This proved an effective means for chamber overpressure mitigation for those tests producing the most total heat release and thusly was determined to be a feasible mitigation strategy to incorporate into the microgravity experiment.

Is the S-Web the Secret to Observed Heliospheric Particle Distributions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higginson, A. K.; Antiochos, S. K.; DeVore, C. R.; Daldorff, L. K. S.; Wyper, P. F.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Sorathia, K.

2017-12-01

Particle transport in the heliosphere remains an unsolved problem across energy regimes. Observations of slow solar wind show that plasma escapes from the closed-field corona, but ends up far away from the heliospheric current sheet, even though the release mechanisms are expected to occur at the HCS. Similarly, some impulsive SEP events have extreme longitudinal extents of 100 degrees or more. Recent theoretical and numerical work has shown that interchange reconnection near a coronal-hole corridor can release plasma from originally closed magnetic field lines into a large swath spread across the heliosphere, forming what is known as an S-Web arc. This is a promising mechanism for explaining both the slow solar wind, with its large latitudinal extent, and impulsive SEP particles, with their large longitudinal extent. Here we compute, for the first time, the dynamics of the S-Web when the photospheric driver is applied over a large portion of the solar surface compared to the scale of the driving. We examine the time scales for the interchange reconnection and compute the angular extent of the plasma released, in the context of understanding both the slow solar wind and flare-accelerated SEPs. We will make predictions for Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe and discuss how these new measurements will help to both pinpoint the source of the slow solar wind and illuminate the transport mechanisms of wide-spread impulsive SEP events.

How supercontinents and superoceans affect seafloor roughness.

PubMed

Whittaker, Joanne M; Müller, R Dietmar; Roest, Walter R; Wessel, Paul; Smith, Walter H F

2008-12-18

Seafloor roughness varies considerably across the world's ocean basins and is fundamental to controlling the circulation and mixing of heat in the ocean and dissipating eddy kinetic energy. Models derived from analyses of active mid-ocean ridges suggest that ocean floor roughness depends on seafloor spreading rates, with rougher basement forming below a half-spreading rate threshold of 30-35 mm yr(-1) (refs 4, 5), as well as on the local interaction of mid-ocean ridges with mantle plumes or cold-spots. Here we present a global analysis of marine gravity-derived roughness, sediment thickness, seafloor isochrons and palaeo-spreading rates of Cretaceous to Cenozoic ridge flanks. Our analysis reveals that, after eliminating effects related to spreading rate and sediment thickness, residual roughness anomalies of 5-20 mGal remain over large swaths of ocean floor. We found that the roughness as a function of palaeo-spreading directions and isochron orientations indicates that most of the observed excess roughness is not related to spreading obliquity, as this effect is restricted to relatively rare occurrences of very high obliquity angles (>45 degrees ). Cretaceous Atlantic ocean floor, formed over mantle previously overlain by the Pangaea supercontinent, displays anomalously low roughness away from mantle plumes and is independent of spreading rates. We attribute this observation to a sub-Pangaean supercontinental mantle temperature anomaly leading to slightly thicker than normal Late Jurassic and Cretaceous Atlantic crust, reduced brittle fracturing and smoother basement relief. In contrast, ocean crust formed above Pacific superswells, probably reflecting metasomatized lithosphere underlain by mantle at only slightly elevated temperatures, is not associated with basement roughness anomalies. These results highlight a fundamental difference in the nature of large-scale mantle upwellings below supercontinents and superoceans, and their impact on oceanic crustal accretion.

Design considerations for implementation of large scale automatic meter reading systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mak, S.; Radford, D.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses the requirements imposed on the design of an AMR system expected to serve a large (> 1 million) customer base spread over a large geographical area. Issues such as system throughput response time, and multi-application expendability are addressed, all of which are intimately dependent on the underlying communication system infrastructure, the local geography, the customer base, and the regulatory environment. A methodology for analysis, assessment, and design of large systems is presented. For illustration, two communication systems -- a low power RF/PLC system and a power frequency carrier system -- are analyzed and discussed.

Modelling indirect interactions during failure spreading in a project activity network.

PubMed

Ellinas, Christos

2018-03-12

Spreading broadly refers to the notion of an entity propagating throughout a networked system via its interacting components. Evidence of its ubiquity and severity can be seen in a range of phenomena, from disease epidemics to financial systemic risk. In order to understand the dynamics of these critical phenomena, computational models map the probability of propagation as a function of direct exposure, typically in the form of pairwise interactions between components. By doing so, the important role of indirect interactions remains unexplored. In response, we develop a simple model that accounts for the effect of both direct and subsequent exposure, which we deploy in the novel context of failure propagation within a real-world engineering project. We show that subsequent exposure has a significant effect in key aspects, including the: (a) final spreading event size, (b) propagation rate, and (c) spreading event structure. In addition, we demonstrate the existence of 'hidden influentials' in large-scale spreading events, and evaluate the role of direct and subsequent exposure in their emergence. Given the evidence of the importance of subsequent exposure, our findings offer new insight on particular aspects that need to be included when modelling network dynamics in general, and spreading processes specifically.

Non-aqueous phase liquid spreading during soil vapor extraction

PubMed Central

Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Hunt, James R.

2010-01-01

Many non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) are expected to spread at the air – water interface, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions. In the vadose zone, this spreading should increase the surface area for mass transfer and the efficiency of volatile NAPL recovery by soil vapor extraction (SVE). Observations of spreading on water wet surfaces led to a conceptual model of oil spreading vertically above a NAPL pool in the vadose zone. Analysis of this model predicts that spreading can enhance the SVE contaminant recovery compared to conditions where the liquid does not spread. Experiments were conducted with spreading volatile oils hexane and heptane in wet porous media and capillary tubes, where spreading was observed at the scale of centimeters. Within porous medium columns up to a meter in height containing stagnant gas, spreading was less than ten centimeters and did not contribute significantly to hexane volatilization. Water film thinning and oil film pinning may have prevented significant oil film spreading, and thus did not enhance SVE at the scale of a meter. The experiments performed indicate that volatile oil spreading at the field scale is unlikely to contribute significantly to the efficiency of SVE. PMID:14734243

Hydrothermal plumes along the East Pacific Rise, 8 deg 40 min to 11 deg 50 min N: Plume distribution and relationship to the apparent magmatic budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, E. T.; Feely, R. A.; Mottl, M. J.; Sansone, F. T.; Wheat, C. G.; Resing, J. A.; Lupton, J. E.

1994-11-01

The interactions between hydrothermal circulation and large-scale geological and geophysical characteristics of the mid-ocean ridge cannot be ascertained without large-scale views of the pattern of hydrothermal venting. Such multi-ridge-segment surveys of venting are accomplished most efficiently by mapping the distribution and intensity of hydrothermal plumes. In November 1991, we mapped hydrothermal temperature (Delta(theta)) and light attenuation (Delta(c)) anomalies above the East Pacific Rise (EPR) continuously from 8 deg 40 min to 11 deg 50 min N, a fast spreading ridge crest portion bisected by the Clipperton Transform Fault. Plume distributions show a precise correlation with the distribution of active vents where video coverage of the axial caldera is exhaustive. Elsewhere in the study area the sketchy knowledge of vent locations gleaned from scattered camera tows predicts only poorly the large-scale hydrothermal pattern revealed by our plume studies. Plumes were most intense between 9 deg 42 min and 9 deg 54 min N, directly over a March/April, 1991, seafloor eruption. These plumes had exceptionally high Delta(c)/Delta(theta) ratios compared to the rest of the study area; we suggest that the phase-separated gas-rich vent fluids discharging here fertilize an abundant population of bacteria. Hydrothermal plume distributions define three categories: intense and continuous, weak and discontinuous and negligible. The location of each category is virtually congruent with areas that are, respectively, magmatically robust, magmatically weak and magmatically starved, as inferred from previous measurements of axial bathymetric undulations, cross-axis inflation and magma chamber depth and continuity. This congruency implies a fine-scale spatial and temporal connection between magmatic fluctuations and hydrothermal venting. We thus speculate that, at least along this fast spreading section of the EPR, cyclic replenishment, eruption and freezing of the thin axial melt lens exerts greater control over hydrothermal venting than the more enduring zones of crystal mush and hot rock. We found intense, and continuous, plumes along 33% of the surveyed ridge crest, an observation implying that any point on the ridge is, on average, hyrothermally active one-third of the time. Combining this result with the 20% plume coverage found along the medium-rate Juan de Fuca Ridge suggests that superfast (approximately 150 mm/yr) spreading rates should support vigorous venting along approximately 50% of their length, if spreading rate and along-axis plume coverage are linearly related.

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

Epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, Y.; Pastor-Satorras, R.; Vespignani, A.

2002-04-01

We present a detailed analytical and numerical study for the spreading of infections with acquired immunity in complex population networks. We show that the large connectivity fluctuations usually found in these networks strengthen considerably the incidence of epidemic outbreaks. Scale-free networks, which are characterized by diverging connectivity fluctuations in the limit of a very large number of nodes, exhibit the lack of an epidemic threshold and always show a finite fraction of infected individuals. This particular weakness, observed also in models without immunity, defines a new epidemiological framework characterized by a highly heterogeneous response of the system to the introduction of infected individuals with different connectivity. The understanding of epidemics in complex networks might deliver new insights in the spread of information and diseases in biological and technological networks that often appear to be characterized by complex heterogeneous architectures.

Modeling the spreading of large-scale wildland fires

Treesearch

Mohamed Drissi

2015-01-01

The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a stochastic small-world network model with those of a deterministic semi-physical model of the interaction between burning and non-burning...

Heterogeneous Gossip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Davide; Guerraoui, Rachid; Kermarrec, Anne-Marie; Koldehofe, Boris; Mogensen, Martin; Monod, Maxime; Quéma, Vivien

Gossip-based information dissemination protocols are considered easy to deploy, scalable and resilient to network dynamics. Load-balancing is inherent in these protocols as the dissemination work is evenly spread among all nodes. Yet, large-scale distributed systems are usually heterogeneous with respect to network capabilities such as bandwidth. In practice, a blind load-balancing strategy might significantly hamper the performance of the gossip dissemination.

Shock propagation in locally driven granular systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joy, Jilmy P.; Pathak, Sudhir N.; Das, Dibyendu; Rajesh, R.

2017-09-01

We study shock propagation in a system of initially stationary hard spheres that is driven by a continuous injection of particles at the origin. The disturbance created by the injection of energy spreads radially outward through collisions between particles. Using scaling arguments, we determine the exponent characterizing the power-law growth of this disturbance in all dimensions. The scaling functions describing the various physical quantities are determined using large-scale event-driven simulations in two and three dimensions for both elastic and inelastic systems. The results are shown to describe well the data from two different experiments on granular systems that are similarly driven.

Shock propagation in locally driven granular systems.

PubMed

Joy, Jilmy P; Pathak, Sudhir N; Das, Dibyendu; Rajesh, R

2017-09-01

We study shock propagation in a system of initially stationary hard spheres that is driven by a continuous injection of particles at the origin. The disturbance created by the injection of energy spreads radially outward through collisions between particles. Using scaling arguments, we determine the exponent characterizing the power-law growth of this disturbance in all dimensions. The scaling functions describing the various physical quantities are determined using large-scale event-driven simulations in two and three dimensions for both elastic and inelastic systems. The results are shown to describe well the data from two different experiments on granular systems that are similarly driven.

A study of flame spread in engineered cardboard fuelbeds: Part II: Scaling law approach

Treesearch

Brittany A. Adam; Nelson K. Akafuah; Mark Finney; Jason Forthofer; Kozo Saito

2013-01-01

In this second part of a two part exploration of dynamic behavior observed in wildland fires, time scales differentiating convective and radiative heat transfer is further explored. Scaling laws for the two different types of heat transfer considered: Radiation-driven fire spread, and convection-driven fire spread, which can both occur during wildland fires. A new...

Analytically Solvable Model of Spreading Dynamics with Non-Poissonian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Hang-Hyun; Perotti, Juan I.; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2014-01-01

Non-Poissonian bursty processes are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena, yet little is known about their effects on the large-scale spreading dynamics. In order to characterize these effects, we devise an analytically solvable model of susceptible-infected spreading dynamics in infinite systems for arbitrary inter-event time distributions and for the whole time range. Our model is stationary from the beginning, and the role of the lower bound of inter-event times is explicitly considered. The exact solution shows that for early and intermediate times, the burstiness accelerates the spreading as compared to a Poisson-like process with the same mean and same lower bound of inter-event times. Such behavior is opposite for late-time dynamics in finite systems, where the power-law distribution of inter-event times results in a slower and algebraic convergence to a fully infected state in contrast to the exponential decay of the Poisson-like process. We also provide an intuitive argument for the exponent characterizing algebraic convergence.

Exploring tectonomagmatic controls on mid-ocean ridge faulting and morphology with 3-D numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, S. M.; Ito, G.; Behn, M. D.; Olive, J. A. L.; Kaus, B.; Popov, A.; Mittelstaedt, E. L.; Morrow, T. A.

2016-12-01

Previous two-dimensional (2-D) modeling studies of abyssal-hill scale fault generation and evolution at mid-ocean ridges have predicted that M, the ratio of magmatic to total extension, strongly influences the total slip, spacing, and rotation of large faults, as well as the morphology of the ridge axis. Scaling relations derived from these 2-D models broadly explain the globally observed decrease in abyssal hill spacing with increasing ridge spreading rate, as well as the formation of large-offset faults close to the ends of slow-spreading ridge segments. However, these scaling relations do not explain some higher resolution observations of segment-scale variability in fault spacing along the Chile Ridge and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where fault spacing shows no obvious correlation with M. This discrepancy between observations and 2-D model predictions illuminates the need for three-dimensional (3-D) numerical models that incorporate the effects of along-axis variations in lithospheric structure and magmatic accretion. To this end, we use the geodynamic modeling software LaMEM to simulate 3-D tectono-magmatic interactions in a visco-elasto-plastic lithosphere under extension. We model a single ridge segment subjected to an along-axis gradient in the rate of magma injection, which is simulated by imposing a mass source in a plane of model finite volumes beneath the ridge axis. Outputs of interest include characteristic fault offset, spacing, and along-axis gradients in seafloor morphology. We also examine the effects of along-axis variations in lithospheric thickness and off-axis thickening rate. The main objectives of this study are to quantify the relative importance of the amount of magmatic extension and the local lithospheric structure at a given along-axis location, versus the importance of along-axis communication of lithospheric stresses on the 3-D fault evolution and morphology of intermediate-spreading-rate ridges.

Compensating the electron beam energy spread by the natural transverse gradient of laser undulator in all-optical x-ray light sources.

PubMed

Zhang, Tong; Feng, Chao; Deng, Haixiao; Wang, Dong; Dai, Zhimin; Zhao, Zhentang

2014-06-02

All-optical ideas provide a potential to dramatically cut off the size and cost of x-ray light sources to the university-laboratory scale, with the combination of the laser-plasma accelerator and the laser undulator. However, the large longitudinal energy spread of the electron beam from laser-plasma accelerator may hinder the way to high brightness of these all-optical light sources. In this paper, the beam energy spread effect is proposed to be significantly compensated by the natural transverse gradient of a laser undulator when properly transverse-dispersing the electron beam. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations on conventional laser-Compton scattering sources and high-gain all-optical x-ray free-electron lasers with the electron beams from laser-plasma accelerators are presented.

Social networks and spreading of epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

2004-05-01

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

Epidemics and dimensionality in hierarchical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Da-Fang; Hui, P. M.; Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Bo

2005-07-01

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveal that for H>1, global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily of the individuals forming a social circle. For H=1, a transition from global to local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses).

A combustion model of vegetation burning in "Tiger" fire propagation tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannino, F.; Ascoli, D.; Sirignano, M.; Mazzoleni, S.; Russo, L.; Rego, F.

2017-11-01

In this paper, we propose a semi-physical model for the burning of vegetation in a wildland fire. The main physical-chemical processes involved in fire spreading are modelled through a set of ordinary differential equations, which describe the combustion process as linearly related to the consumption of fuel. The water evaporation process from leaves and wood is also considered. Mass and energy balance equations are written for fuel (leaves and wood) assuming that combustion process is homogeneous in space. The model is developed with the final aim of simulating large-scale wildland fires which spread on heterogeneous landscape while keeping the computation cost very low.

Analysis of Initial Cell Spreading Using Mechanistic Contact Formulations for a Deformable Cell Model

PubMed Central

Odenthal, Tim; Smeets, Bart; Van Liedekerke, Paul; Tijskens, Engelbert; Van Oosterwyck, Hans; Ramon, Herman

2013-01-01

Adhesion governs to a large extent the mechanical interaction between a cell and its microenvironment. As initial cell spreading is purely adhesion driven, understanding this phenomenon leads to profound insight in both cell adhesion and cell-substrate interaction. It has been found that across a wide variety of cell types, initial spreading behavior universally follows the same power laws. The simplest cell type providing this scaling of the radius of the spreading area with time are modified red blood cells (RBCs), whose elastic responses are well characterized. Using a mechanistic description of the contact interaction between a cell and its substrate in combination with a deformable RBC model, we are now able to investigate in detail the mechanisms behind this universal power law. The presented model suggests that the initial slope of the spreading curve with time results from a purely geometrical effect facilitated mainly by dissipation upon contact. Later on, the spreading rate decreases due to increasing tension and dissipation in the cell's cortex as the cell spreads more and more. To reproduce this observed initial spreading, no irreversible deformations are required. Since the model created in this effort is extensible to more complex cell types and can cope with arbitrarily shaped, smooth mechanical microenvironments of the cells, it can be useful for a wide range of investigations where forces at the cell boundary play a decisive role. PMID:24146605

Precursor wave structure, prereversal vertical drift, and their relative roles in the development of post sunset equatorial spread-F

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdu, Mangalathayil; Sobral, José; alam Kherani, Esfhan; Batista, Inez S.; Souza, Jonas

2016-07-01

The characteristics of large-scale wave structure in the equatorial bottomside F region that are present during daytime as precursor to post sunset development of the spread F/plasma bubble irregularities are investigated in this paper. Digisonde data from three equatorial sites in Brazil (Fortaleza, Sao Luis and Cachimbo) for a period of few months at low to medium/high solar activity phases are analyzed. Small amplitude oscillations in the F layer true heights, representing wave structure in polarization electric field, are identified as upward propagating gravity waves having zonal scale of a few hundred kilometers. Their amplitudes undergo amplification towards sunset, and depending on the amplitude of the prereversal vertical drift (PRE) they may lead to post sunset generation of ESF/plasma bubble irregularities. On days of their larger amplitudes they appear to occur in phase coherence on all days, and correspondingly the PRE vertical drift velocities are larger than on days of the smaller amplitudes of the wave structure that appear at random phase on the different days. The sustenance of these precursor waves structures is supported by the relatively large ratio (approaching unity) of the F region-to- total field line integrated Pedersen conductivities as calculated using the SUPIM simulation of the low latitude ionosphere. This study examines the role of the wave structure relative to that of the prereversal vertical drift in the post sunset spread F irregularity development.

Incorporation of spatial interactions in location networks to identify critical geo-referenced routes for assessing disease control measures on a large-scale campus.

PubMed

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chin, Wei Chien Benny

2015-04-14

Respiratory diseases mainly spread through interpersonal contact. Class suspension is the most direct strategy to prevent the spread of disease through elementary or secondary schools by blocking the contact network. However, as university students usually attend courses in different buildings, the daily contact patterns on a university campus are complicated, and once disease clusters have occurred, suspending classes is far from an efficient strategy to control disease spread. The purpose of this study is to propose a methodological framework for generating campus location networks from a routine administration database, analyzing the community structure of the network, and identifying the critical links and nodes for blocking respiratory disease transmission. The data comes from the student enrollment records of a major comprehensive university in Taiwan. We combined the social network analysis and spatial interaction model to establish a geo-referenced community structure among the classroom buildings. We also identified the critical links among the communities that were acting as contact bridges and explored the changes in the location network after the sequential removal of the high-risk buildings. Instead of conducting a questionnaire survey, the study established a standard procedure for constructing a location network on a large-scale campus from a routine curriculum database. We also present how a location network structure at a campus could function to target the high-risk buildings as the bridges connecting communities for blocking disease transmission.

Anatomy of ridge discontinuities, transform fault and overlapping spreading centre, at the slow spreading sedimented Andaman Sea Spreading Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdain, A.; Singh, S. C.; Klinger, Y.

2013-12-01

Transform faults are the major discontinuities and define the main segment boundaries along spreading centres but their anatomy is poorly understood because of their complex seafloor morphology, even though they are observed at all types of spreading centres. Here, we present high-resolution seismic reflection images across the sedimented Andaman Sea Transform Fault where the sediments record the faulting and allow studying the evolution of the transform fault both in space and time. Furthermore, sediments allow the imaging of the faults down to the Moho depth that provides insight on the interplay between tectonic and magmatic processes. On the other hand, overlapping spreading centres (OSC) are small-scale discontinuities, possibly transient, and are observed only along fast or intermediate spreading centres. Exceptionally, an overlapping spreading centre is present at the slow spreading Andaman Sea Spreading Centre, which, we suggest, is due to the presence of thick sediments that hamper the efficient hydrothermal circulation allowing magma to stay much longer in the crust at different depths, and up to close to the segment ends, leading to the development of an overlapping spreading. The seismic reflection images across the OSC indicate the presence of large magma bodies in the crust. Seismic images also provide images of active faults allowing to study the link between faulting and magmatism. Interestingly, an earthquake swarm occurred at propagating limb of the OSC in 2006, after the great 2004 Andaman-Sumatra earthquake of Mw=9.3, highlighting the migration of the OSC westward. In this paper, we will show seismic reflection images and interpret these images in the light of bathymetry and earthquake data, and provide the anatomy of the ridge discontinuities along the slow spreading sedimented Andaman Sea Spreading Centre.

Low-intensity electric fields induce two distinct response components in neocortical neuronal populations

PubMed Central

Xu, Weifeng; Wolff, Brian S.

2014-01-01

Low-intensity alternating electric fields applied to the scalp are capable of modulating cortical activity and brain functions, but the underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. Here, we report two distinct components of voltage-sensitive dye signals induced by low-intensity, alternating electric fields in rodent cortical slices: a “passive component,” which corresponds to membrane potential changes directly induced by the electric field; and an “active component,” which is a widespread depolarization that is dependent on excitatory synaptic transmission. The passive component is stationary, with amplitude and phase accurately reflecting the cortical cytoarchitecture. In contrast, the active component is initiated from a local “hot spot” of activity and spreads to a large population as a propagating wave with rich local dynamics. The propagation of the active component may play a role in modulating large-scale cortical activity by spreading a low level of excitation from a small initiation point to a vast neuronal population. PMID:25122710

C/NOFS Satellite Electric Field and Plasma Density Observations of Plasma Instabilities Below the Equatorial F-Peak -- Evidence for Approximately 500 km-Scale Spread-F "Precursor" Waves Driven by Zonal Shear Flow and km-Scale, Narrow-Banded Irregularities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfaff, R.; Freudenreich, H.; Klenzing, J.; Liebrecht, C.; Valladares, C.

2011-01-01

As solar activity has increased, the ionosphere F-peak has been elevated on numerous occasions above the C/NOFS satellite perigee of 400km. In particular, during the month of April, 2011, the satellite consistently journeyed below the F-peak whenever the orbit was in the region of the South Atlantic anomaly after sunset. During these passes, data from the electric field and plasma density probes on the satellite have revealed two types of instabilities which had not previously been observed in the C/NOFS data set (to our knowledge): The first is evidence for 400-500km-scale bottomside "undulations" that appear in the density and electric field data. In one case, these large scale waves are associated with a strong shear in the zonal E x B flow, as evidenced by variations in the meridional (outward) electric fields observed above and below the F-peak. These undulations are devoid of smaller scale structures in the early evening, yet appear at later local times along the same orbit associated with fully-developed spread-F with smaller scale structures. This suggests that they may be precursor waves for spread-F, driven by a collisional shear instability, following ideas advanced previously by researchers using data from the Jicamarca radar. A second new result (for C/NOFS) is the appearance of km-scale irregularities that are a common feature in the electric field and plasma density data that also appear when the satellite is below the F -peak at night. The vector electric field instrument on C/NOFS clearly shows that the electric field component of these waves is strongest in the zonal direction. These waves are strongly correlated with simultaneous observations of plasma density oscillations and appear both with, and without, evidence of larger-scale spread-F depletions. These km-scale, quasi-coherent waves strongly resemble the bottomside, sinusoidal irregularities reported in the Atmosphere Explorer satellite data set by Valladares et al. [JGR, 88, 8025, 1983]. We interpret these new observations in terms of fundamental plasma instabilities associated with the unstable, nighttime equatorial ionosphere.

Large-scale quarantine following biological terrorism in the United States: scientific examination, logistic and legal limits, and possible consequences.

PubMed

Barbera, J; Macintyre, A; Gostin, L; Inglesby, T; O'Toole, T; DeAtley, C; Tonat, K; Layton, M

2001-12-05

Concern for potential bioterrorist attacks causing mass casualties has increased recently. Particular attention has been paid to scenarios in which a biological agent capable of person-to-person transmission, such as smallpox, is intentionally released among civilians. Multiple public health interventions are possible to effect disease containment in this context. One disease control measure that has been regularly proposed in various settings is the imposition of large-scale or geographic quarantine on the potentially exposed population. Although large-scale quarantine has not been implemented in recent US history, it has been used on a small scale in biological hoaxes, and it has been invoked in federally sponsored bioterrorism exercises. This article reviews the scientific principles that are relevant to the likely effectiveness of quarantine, the logistic barriers to its implementation, legal issues that a large-scale quarantine raises, and possible adverse consequences that might result from quarantine action. Imposition of large-scale quarantine-compulsory sequestration of groups of possibly exposed persons or human confinement within certain geographic areas to prevent spread of contagious disease-should not be considered a primary public health strategy in most imaginable circumstances. In the majority of contexts, other less extreme public health actions are likely to be more effective and create fewer unintended adverse consequences than quarantine. Actions and areas for future research, policy development, and response planning efforts are provided.

Laboratory Studies of Carbon Emission from Biomass Burning for use in Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wald, Andrew E.; Kaufman, Yoram J.

1998-01-01

Biomass burning is a significant source of many trace gases in the atmosphere. Up to 25% of the total anthropogenic carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere annually is from biomass burning. However, this gaseous emission from fires is not directly detectable from satellite. Infrared radiance from the fires is. In order to see if infrared radiance can be used as a tracer for these emitted gases, we made laboratory measurements to determine the correlation of emitted carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and total burned biomass with emitted infrared radiance. If the measured correlations among these quantities hold in the field, then satellite-observed infrared radiance can be used to estimate gaseous emission and total burned biomass on a global, daily basis. To this end, several types of biomass fuels were burned under controlled conditions in a large-scale combustion laboratory. Simultaneous measurements of emitted spectral infrared radiance, emitted carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and total mass loss were made. In addition measurements of fuel moisture content and fuel elemental abundance were made. We found that for a given fire, the quantity of carbon burned can be estimated from 11 (micro)m radiance measurements only within a factor of five. This variation arises from three sources, 1) errors in our measurements, 2) the subpixel nature of the fires, and 3) inherent differences in combustion of different fuel types. Despite this large range, these measurements can still be used for large-scale satellite estimates of biomass burned. This is because of the very large possible spread of fire sizes that will be subpixel as seen by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Due to this large spread, even relatively low-precision correlations can still be useful for large-scale estimates of emitted carbon. Furthermore, such estimates using the MODIS 3.9 (micro)m channel should be even more accurate than our estimates based on 11 (micro)m radiance.

Concept For Generation Of Long Pseudorandom Sequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, C. C.

1990-01-01

Conceptual very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) digital circuit performs exponentiation in finite field. Algorithm that generates unusually long sequences of pseudorandom numbers executed by digital processor that includes such circuits. Concepts particularly advantageous for such applications as spread-spectrum communications, cryptography, and generation of ranging codes, synthetic noise, and test data, where usually desirable to make pseudorandom sequences as long as possible.

Variability and persistence of post-fire biological legacies in jack pine-dominated ecosystems of northern Lower Michigan

Treesearch

Daniel Kashian; Gregory Corace; Lindsey Shartell; Deahn M. Donner; Philip Huber

2011-01-01

Stand-replacing wildfires have historically shaped the forest structure of dry, sandy jack pine-dominated ecosystems at stand and landscape scales in northern Lower Michigan. Unique fire behavior during large wildfire events often preserves long strips of unburned trees arranged perpendicular to the direction of fire spread. These biological legacies create...

Paradoxes of Solidarity: Democracy and Colonial Legacies in Swedish Popular Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dahlstedt, Magnus; Nordvall, Henrik

2011-01-01

Over the years, there have been several attempts to spread the "Swedish model" of popular education, that is, study circles and folk high schools, to countries in other parts of the world. In this article, the authors analyze the large-scale project of establishing folk development colleges in Tanzania in the 1970s and 1980s, by…

A tale of two fires: The relative effectiveness of past wildfires in mitigating wildfire behavior and effects

Treesearch

Robert W. Gray; Susan J. Prichard

2015-01-01

The incidence of large, costly landscape-scale fires in western North America is increasing. To combat these fires, researchers and managers have expressed increased interest in investigating the effectiveness of past, stand-replacing wildfires as bottom-up controls on fire spread and severity. Specifically, how effective are past wildfires in mitigating the behavior...

Environmental and social determinants of population vulnerability to Zika virus emergence at the local scale.

PubMed

Rees, Erin E; Petukhova, Tatiana; Mascarenhas, Mariola; Pelcat, Yann; Ogden, Nicholas H

2018-05-08

Zika virus (ZIKV) spread rapidly in the Americas in 2015. Targeting effective public health interventions for inhabitants of, and travellers to and from, affected countries depends on understanding the risk of ZIKV emergence (and re-emergence) at the local scale. We explore the extent to which environmental, social and neighbourhood disease intensity variables influenced emergence dynamics. Our objective was to characterise population vulnerability given the potential for sustained autochthonous ZIKV transmission and the timing of emergence. Logistic regression models estimated the probability of reporting at least one case of ZIKV in a given municipality over the course of the study period as an indicator for sustained transmission; while accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models estimated the time to a first reported case of ZIKV in week t for a given municipality as an indicator for timing of emergence. Sustained autochthonous ZIKV transmission was best described at the temporal scale of the study period (almost one year), such that high levels of study period precipitation and low mean study period temperature reduced the probability. Timing of ZIKV emergence was best described at the weekly scale for precipitation in that high precipitation in the current week delayed reporting. Both modelling approaches detected an effect of high poverty on reducing/slowing case detection, especially when inter-municipal road connectivity was low. We also found that proximity to municipalities reporting ZIKV had an effect to reduce timing of emergence when located, on average, less than 100 km away. The different modelling approaches help distinguish between large temporal scale factors driving vector habitat suitability and short temporal scale factors affecting the speed of spread. We find evidence for inter-municipal movements of infected people as a local-scale driver of spatial spread. The negative association with poverty suggests reduced case reporting in poorer areas. Overall, relatively simplistic models may be able to predict the vulnerability of populations to autochthonous ZIKV transmission at the local scale.

Producing Hydrogen With Sunlight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biddle, J. R.; Peterson, D. B.; Fujita, T.

1987-01-01

Costs high but reduced by further research. Producing hydrogen fuel on large scale from water by solar energy practical if plant costs reduced, according to study. Sunlight attractive energy source because it is free and because photon energy converts directly to chemical energy when it breaks water molecules into diatomic hydrogen and oxygen. Conversion process low in efficiency and photochemical reactor must be spread over large area, requiring large investment in plant. Economic analysis pertains to generic photochemical processes. Does not delve into details of photochemical reactor design because detailed reactor designs do not exist at this early stage of development.

Broad-scale phylogenomics provides insights into retrovirus–host evolution

PubMed Central

Hayward, Alexander; Grabherr, Manfred; Jern, Patric

2013-01-01

Genomic data provide an excellent resource to improve understanding of retrovirus evolution and the complex relationships among viruses and their hosts. In conjunction with broad-scale in silico screening of vertebrate genomes, this resource offers an opportunity to complement data on the evolution and frequency of past retroviral spread and so evaluate future risks and limitations for horizontal transmission between different host species. Here, we develop a methodology for extracting phylogenetic signal from large endogenous retrovirus (ERV) datasets by collapsing information to facilitate broad-scale phylogenomics across a wide sample of hosts. Starting with nearly 90,000 ERVs from 60 vertebrate host genomes, we construct phylogenetic hypotheses and draw inferences regarding the designation, host distribution, origin, and transmission of the Gammaretrovirus genus and associated class I ERVs. Our results uncover remarkable depths in retroviral sequence diversity, supported within a phylogenetic context. This finding suggests that current infectious exogenous retrovirus diversity may be underestimated, adding credence to the possibility that many additional exogenous retroviruses may remain to be discovered in vertebrate taxa. We demonstrate a history of frequent horizontal interorder transmissions from a rodent reservoir and suggest that rats may have acted as important overlooked facilitators of gammaretrovirus spread across diverse mammalian hosts. Together, these results demonstrate the promise of the methodology used here to analyze large ERV datasets and improve understanding of retroviral evolution and diversity for utilization in wider applications. PMID:24277832

Broad-scale phylogenomics provides insights into retrovirus-host evolution.

PubMed

Hayward, Alexander; Grabherr, Manfred; Jern, Patric

2013-12-10

Genomic data provide an excellent resource to improve understanding of retrovirus evolution and the complex relationships among viruses and their hosts. In conjunction with broad-scale in silico screening of vertebrate genomes, this resource offers an opportunity to complement data on the evolution and frequency of past retroviral spread and so evaluate future risks and limitations for horizontal transmission between different host species. Here, we develop a methodology for extracting phylogenetic signal from large endogenous retrovirus (ERV) datasets by collapsing information to facilitate broad-scale phylogenomics across a wide sample of hosts. Starting with nearly 90,000 ERVs from 60 vertebrate host genomes, we construct phylogenetic hypotheses and draw inferences regarding the designation, host distribution, origin, and transmission of the Gammaretrovirus genus and associated class I ERVs. Our results uncover remarkable depths in retroviral sequence diversity, supported within a phylogenetic context. This finding suggests that current infectious exogenous retrovirus diversity may be underestimated, adding credence to the possibility that many additional exogenous retroviruses may remain to be discovered in vertebrate taxa. We demonstrate a history of frequent horizontal interorder transmissions from a rodent reservoir and suggest that rats may have acted as important overlooked facilitators of gammaretrovirus spread across diverse mammalian hosts. Together, these results demonstrate the promise of the methodology used here to analyze large ERV datasets and improve understanding of retroviral evolution and diversity for utilization in wider applications.

Reduction in spread of excitation from current focusing at multiple cochlear locations in cochlear implant users.

PubMed

Padilla, Monica; Landsberger, David M

2016-03-01

Channel interaction from a broad spread of excitation is likely to be a limiting factor in performance by cochlear implant users. Although partial tripolar stimulation has been shown to reduce spread of excitation, the magnitude of the reduction is highly variable across subjects. Because the reduction in spread of excitation is typically only measured at one electrode for a given subject, the degree of variability across cochlear locations is unknown. The first goal of the present study was to determine if the reduction in spread of excitation observed from partial tripolar current focusing systematically varies across the cochlea. The second goal was to measure the variability in reduction of spread of excitation relative to monopolar stimulation across the cochlea. The third goal was to expand upon previous results that suggest that scaling of verbal descriptors can be used to predict the reduction in spread of excitation, by increasing the limited number of sites previously evaluated and verify the relationships remain with the larger dataset. The spread of excitation for monopolar and partial tripolar stimulation was measured at 5 cochlear locations using a psychophysical forward masking task. Results of the present study suggest that although partial tripolar stimulation typically reduces spread of excitation, the degree of reduction in spread of excitation was found to be highly variable and no effect of cochlear location was found. Additionally, subjective scaling of certain verbal descriptors (Clean/Dirty, Pure/Noisy) correlated with the reduction in spread of excitation suggesting sound quality scaling might be used as a quick clinical estimate of channels providing a reduction in spread of excitation. This quick scaling technique might help clinicians determine which patients would be most likely to benefit from a focused strategy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduction in Spread of Excitation from Current Focusing at Multiple Cochlear Locations in Cochlear Implant Users

PubMed Central

Padilla, Monica; Landsberger, David M.

2016-01-01

Channel interaction from a broad spread of excitation is likely to be a limiting factor in performance by cochlear implant users. Although partial tripolar stimulation has been shown to reduce spread of excitation, the magnitude of the reduction is highly variable across subjects. Because the reduction in spread of excitation is typically only measured at one electrode for a given subject, the degree of variability across cochlear locations is unknown. The first goal of the present study was to determine if the reduction in spread of excitation observed from partial tripolar current focusing systematically varies across the cochlea. The second goal was to measure the variability in reduction of spread of excitation relative to monopolar stimulation across the cochlea. The third goal was to expand upon previous results that suggest that scaling of verbal descriptors can be used to predict the reduction in spread of excitation, by increasing the limited number of sites previously evaluated and verify the relationships remain with the larger dataset. The spread of excitation for monopolar and partial tripolar stimulation was measured at 5 cochlear locations using a psychophysical forward masking task. Results of the present study suggest that although partial tripolar stimulation typically reduces spread of excitation, the degree of reduction in spread of excitation was found to be highly variable and no effect of cochlear location was found. Additionally, subjective scaling of certain verbal descriptors (Clean/Dirty, Pure/Noisy) correlated with the reduction in spread of excitation suggesting sound quality scaling might be used as a quick clinical estimate of channels providing a reduction in spread of excitation. This quick scaling technique might help clinicians determine which patients would be most likely to benefit from a focused strategy. PMID:26778546

Exploration–exploitation trade-off features a saltatory search behaviour

PubMed Central

Volchenkov, Dimitri; Helbach, Jonathan; Tscherepanow, Marko; Kühnel, Sina

2013-01-01

Searching experiments conducted in different virtual environments over a gender-balanced group of people revealed a gender irrelevant scale-free spread of searching activity on large spatio-temporal scales. We have suggested and solved analytically a simple statistical model of the coherent-noise type describing the exploration–exploitation trade-off in humans (‘should I stay’ or ‘should I go’). The model exhibits a variety of saltatory behaviours, ranging from Lévy flights occurring under uncertainty to Brownian walks performed by a treasure hunter confident of the eventual success. PMID:23782535

Nano Liquid Crystal Droplet Impact on Solid Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui; de Pablo, Juan; dePablo Team

2015-03-01

Liquid droplet impaction on solid surfaces is an important problem with a wide range of applications in everyday life. Liquid crystals (LCs) are anisotropic liquids whose internal structure gives rise to rich optical and morphological phenomena. In this work we study the liquid crystal droplet impaction on solid surfaces by molecular dynamics simulations. We employ a widely used Gay-Berne model to describe the elongated liquid crystal molecules and their interactions. Our work shows that, in contrast to isotropic liquids, drop deformation is symmetric unless an instability kicks in, in which case a nano scale liquid crystal droplet exhibits distinct anisotropic spreading modes that do not occur in simple liquids. The drop prefers spreading along the low viscosity direction, but inertia can in some cases overcome that bias. The effects of the director field of the droplet, preferred anchoring direction and the anchoring strength of the wall are investigated. Large scale (0.1 micron) simulations are performed to connect our nano scale results to the experiments. Our studies indicate that LCs could provide an interesting alternative for development of next-generation printing inks.

Scale-free correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernan

2012-02-01

Obesity levels have been universally increasing. A crucial problem is to determine the influence of global and local drivers behind the obesity epidemic, to properly guide effective policies. Despite the numerous factors that affect the obesity evolution, we show a remarkable regularity expressed in a predictable pattern of spatial long-range correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity. We study the spatial clustering of obesity and a number of related health and economic indicators, and we use statistical physics methods to characterize the growth of the resulting clusters. The resulting scaling exponents allow us to broadly classify these indicators into two separate universality classes, weakly or strongly correlated. Weak correlations are found in generic human activity such as population distribution and the growth of the whole economy. Strong correlations are recovered, among others, for obesity, diabetes, and the food industry sectors associated with food consumption. Obesity turns out to be a global problem where local details are of little importance. The long-range correlations suggest influence that extends to large scales, hinting that the physical model of obesity clustering can be mapped to a long-range correlated percolation process.

Extinct mid-ocean ridges and insights on the influence of hotspots at divergent plate boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, Sarah; Dietmar Müller, R.; Williams, Simon; Matthews, Kara

2016-04-01

We review all global examples of confirmed or suspected extinct mid-ocean ridges that are preserved in present-day ocean basins. Data on their spreading rate prior to extinction, time of cessation, length of activity, bathymetric and gravity signature are analysed. This analysis identifies some differences between subgroups of extinct ridges, including microplate spreading ridges, back-arc basin ridges and large-scale mid-ocean ridges. Crustal structure of extinct ridges is evaluated using gravity inversion to seek to resolve a long-standing debate on whether the final stages of spreading leads to development of thinned or thickened crust. Most of the ridges we assess have thinner crust at their axes than their flanks, yet a small number are found to have a single segment that is overprinted by an anomalous feature such as a seamount or volcanic ridge. A more complex cessation mechanism is necessary in these cases. The location of spreading centres at their time of cessation relative to hotspots was also evaluated using a global plate reconstruction. This review provides strong evidence for the long-term interaction of spreading centres with hotspots and plate boundaries have been frequently modified within the radius of a hotspot zone of influence.

Design Sketches For Optical Crossbar Switches Intended For Large-Scale Parallel Processing Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Alfred; Redfield, Steve

1989-04-01

This paper discusses design of large-scale (1000x 1000) optical crossbar switching networks for use in parallel processing supercom-puters. Alternative design sketches for an optical crossbar switching network are presented using free-space optical transmission with either a beam spreading/masking model or a beam steering model for internodal communications. The performances of alternative multiple access channel communications protocol-unslotted and slotted ALOHA and carrier sense multiple access (CSMA)-are compared with the performance of the classic arbitrated bus crossbar of conventional electronic parallel computing. These comparisons indicate an almost inverse relationship between ease of implementation and speed of operation. Practical issues of optical system design are addressed, and an optically addressed, composite spatial light modulator design is presented for fabrication to arbitrarily large scale. The wide range of switch architecture, communications protocol, optical systems design, device fabrication, and system performance problems presented by these design sketches poses a serious challenge to practical exploitation of highly parallel optical interconnects in advanced computer designs.

Large-scale weather dynamics during the 2015 haze event in Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djamil, Yudha; Lee, Wen-Chien; Tien Dat, Pham; Kuwata, Mikinori

2017-04-01

The 2015 haze event in South East Asia is widely considered as a period of the worst air quality in the region in more than a decade. The source of the haze was from forest and peatland fire in Sumatra and Kalimantan Islands, Indonesia. The fires were mostly came from the practice of forest clearance known as slash and burn, to be converted to palm oil plantation. Such practice of clearance although occurs seasonally but at 2015 it became worst by the impact of strong El Nino. The long period of dryer atmosphere over the region due to El Nino makes the fire easier to ignite, spread and difficult to stop. The biomass emission from the forest and peatland fire caused large-scale haze pollution problem in both Islands and further spread into the neighboring countries such as Singapore and Malaysia. In Singapore, for about two months (September-October, 2015) the air quality was in the unhealthy level. Such unfortunate condition caused some socioeconomic losses such as school closure, cancellation of outdoor events, health issues and many more with total losses estimated as S700 million. The unhealthy level of Singapore's air quality is based on the increasing pollutant standard index (PSI>120) due to the haze arrival, it even reached a hazardous level (PSI= 300) for several days. PSI is a metric of air quality in Singapore that aggregate six pollutants (SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NO2, CO and O3). In this study, we focused on PSI variability in weekly-biweekly time scales (periodicity < 30 days) since it is the least understood compare to their diurnal and seasonal scales. We have identified three dominant time scales of PSI ( 5, 10 and 20 days) using Wavelet method and investigated their large-scale atmospheric structures. The PSI associated large-scale column moisture horizontal structures over the Indo-Pacific basin are dominated by easterly propagating gyres in synoptic (macro) scale for the 5 days ( 10 and 20 days) time scales. The propagating gyres manifest as cyclical column moisture flux trajectory around Singapore region. Some of its phases are identified to be responsible in transporting the haze from its source to Singapore. The haze source was identified by compositing number of hotspots in grid-space based on the three time scales of PSI. Further discussion about equatorial waves during the haze event will also be presented.

Distribution and dynamics of the invasive native hay-scented fern

Treesearch

Songlin Fei; Peter Gould; Melanie Kaeser; Kim Steiner

2010-01-01

The spread and dominance of the invasive native hay-scented fern in the understory is one of the most significant changes to affect the forest ecosystems in the northeastern United States in the last century. We studied changes in the distribution and dynamics of hay-scented fern at a large scale over a 10-yr period in Pennsylvania. The study included 56 stands...

Simulation and thermal imaging of the 2006 Esperanza Wildfire in southern California: application of a coupled weather-wildland fire model

Treesearch

Janice L. Coen; Philip J Riggan

2014-01-01

The 2006 Esperanza Fire in Riverside County, California, was simulated with the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Environment (CAWFE) model to examine how dynamic interactions of the atmosphere with large-scale fire spread and energy release may affect observed patterns of fire behavior as mapped using the FireMapper thermal imaging radiometer. CAWFE simulated the...

First observations of large-scale wave structure and equatorial spread F using CERTO radio beacon on the C/NOFS satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thampi, S.; Yamamoto, M.; Tsunoda, R. T.; Otsuka, Y.; Tsugawa, T.; Uemoto, J.; Ishii, M.

2009-12-01

Equatorial spread F (ESF) is a generic name, which refers to the presence of a wide spectrum of field-aligned irregularities in the equatorial nighttime F-region that can extend over nearly seven orders of magnitude. Recently, a large-scale wave structure (LSWS) in the F-layer electron density is identified as a reliable precursor to ESF. The LSWS can be identified as a quasi-periodic modulation in the altitude of isoelectron density contours in the bottomside F-region, superimposed on a mean slope that increases in altitude from west to east. First observations of large-scale wave structure (LSWS) and the subsequent development of equatorial spread F (ESF), using total electron content (TEC) derived from the ground based reception of Coherent Electromagnetic Radio Tomography (CETRO) radio beacon signals on board the C/NOFS (Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System) satellite will be presented. For this study the TEC observations from Bac Lieu, Vietnam (9.2°N, 105.6°E geographic, 1.7°N magnetic dip latitude), Phukhet (7.8°N, 98.38°E, 0.4°S dip lat) and Kototabang, Indonesia (0.20°S, 100.32°E, 10.36°S dip lat) are analyzed along with ionosonde observations from Bac Lieu, Chumphon (10.7°N, 99.4°E, 3.3° dip lat) and 30.8 MHz VHF radar observations from Kototabang. It should also be mentioned here that LSWS is not easily detectable with overhead measurements using a sensor at a fixed location, at least not during its early growth phase, mainly because initially it grows in amplitude without significant zonal drift. The results indicate (1) LSWS appears to play a more important role in the development of ESF than the post-sunset rise (PSSR) of the F-layer, and (2) LSWS can appear well before E-region sunset. Other findings, that LSWS does not have significant zonal drift in the initial stages of growth, and can have zonal wavelengths of several hundred kilometers, corroborate earlier reports.

1D momentum-conserving systems: the conundrum of anomalous versus normal heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yunyun; Liu, Sha; Li, Nianbei; Hänggi, Peter; Li, Baowen

2015-04-01

Transport and the spread of heat in Hamiltonian one dimensional momentum conserving nonlinear systems is commonly thought to proceed anomalously. Notable exceptions, however, do exist of which the coupled rotator model is a prominent case. Therefore, the quest arises to identify the origin of manifest anomalous energy and momentum transport in those low dimensional systems. We develop the theory for both, the statistical densities for momentum- and energy-spread and particularly its momentum-/heat-diffusion behavior, as well as its corresponding momentum/heat transport features. We demonstrate that the second temporal derivative of the mean squared deviation of the momentum spread is proportional to the equilibrium correlation of the total momentum flux. Subtracting the part which corresponds to a ballistic momentum spread relates (via this integrated, subleading momentum flux correlation) to an effective viscosity, or equivalently, to the underlying momentum diffusivity. We next put forward the intriguing hypothesis: normal spread of this so adjusted excess momentum density causes normal energy spread and alike normal heat transport (Fourier Law). Its corollary being that an anomalous, superdiffusive broadening of this adjusted excess momentum density in turn implies an anomalous energy spread and correspondingly anomalous, superdiffusive heat transport. This hypothesis is successfully corroborated within extensive molecular dynamics simulations over large extended time scales. Our numerical validation of the hypothesis involves four distinct archetype classes of nonlinear pair-interaction potentials: (i) a globally bounded pair interaction (the noted coupled rotator model), (ii) unbounded interactions acting at large distances (the coupled rotator model amended with harmonic pair interactions), (iii) the case of a hard point gas with unbounded square-well interactions and (iv) a pair interaction potential being unbounded at short distances while displaying an asymptotic free part (Lennard-Jones model). We compare our findings with recent predictions obtained from nonlinear fluctuating hydrodynamics theory.

What's in a crowd? Analysis of face-to-face behavioral networks.

PubMed

Isella, Lorenzo; Stehlé, Juliette; Barrat, Alain; Cattuto, Ciro; Pinton, Jean-François; Van den Broeck, Wouter

2011-02-21

The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved face-to-face proximity of individuals in large-scale real-world scenarios. We compare two settings with very different properties, a scientific conference and a long-running museum exhibition. We track the behavioral networks of face-to-face proximity, and characterize them from both a static and a dynamic point of view, exposing differences and similarities. We use our data to investigate the dynamics of a susceptible-infected model for epidemic spreading that unfolds on the dynamical networks of human proximity. The spreading patterns are markedly different for the conference and the museum case, and they are strongly impacted by the causal structure of the network data. A deeper study of the spreading paths shows that the mere knowledge of static aggregated networks would lead to erroneous conclusions about the transmission paths on the dynamical networks. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, S.; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.

Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascendmore » (ω500 < -25 hPa/d) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is as large as that in stratocumulus regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascend are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. 42" It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm/d) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64% to nearly 100%). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes than that globally, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

Explaining the luminosity spread in young clusters: proto and pre-main sequence stellar evolution in a molecular cloud environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Sigurd S.; Haugbølle, Troels

2018-02-01

Hertzsprung-Russell diagrams of star-forming regions show a large luminosity spread. This is incompatible with well-defined isochrones based on classic non-accreting protostellar evolution models. Protostars do not evolve in isolation of their environment, but grow through accretion of gas. In addition, while an age can be defined for a star-forming region, the ages of individual stars in the region will vary. We show how the combined effect of a protostellar age spread, a consequence of sustained star formation in the molecular cloud, and time-varying protostellar accretion for individual protostars can explain the observed luminosity spread. We use a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation including a sub-scale sink particle model of a star-forming region to follow the accretion process of each star. The accretion profiles are used to compute stellar evolution models for each star, incorporating a model of how the accretion energy is distributed to the disc, radiated away at the accretion shock, or incorporated into the outer layers of the protostar. Using a modelled cluster age of 5 Myr, we naturally reproduce the luminosity spread and find good agreement with observations of the Collinder 69 cluster, and the Orion Nebular Cluster. It is shown how stars in binary and multiple systems can be externally forced creating recurrent episodic accretion events. We find that in a realistic global molecular cloud model massive stars build up mass over relatively long time-scales. This leads to an important conceptual change compared to the classic picture of non-accreting stellar evolution segmented into low-mass Hayashi tracks and high-mass Henyey tracks.

Asymmetric sea-floor spreading caused by ridge-plume interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, R. Dietmar; Roest, Walter R.; Royer, Jean-Yves

1998-12-01

Crustal accretion at mid-ocean ridges is generally modelled as a symmetric process. Regional analyses, however, often show either small-scale asymmetries, which vary rapidly between individual spreading corridors, or large-scale asymmetries represented by consistent excess accretion on one of the two separating plates over geological time spans. In neither case is the origin of the asymmetry well understood. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the asymmetry of crustal accretion over the past 83Myr based on a set of self-consistent digital isochrons and models of absolute plate motion,. We find that deficits in crustal accretion occur mainly on ridge flanks overlying one or several hotspots. We therefore propose that asymmetric accretion is caused by ridge propagation towards mantle plumes or minor ridge jumps sustained by asthenospheric flow, between ridges and plumes. Quantifying the asymmetry of crustal accretion provides a complementary approach to that based on geochemical and other geophysical data, in helping to unravel how mantle plumes and mid-ocean ridges are linked through mantle convection processes.

Full-scale aircraft cabin flammability tests of improved fire-resistant materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stuckey, R. N.; Surpkis, D. E.; Price, L. J.

1974-01-01

Full-scale aircraft cabin flammability tests to evaluate the effectiveness of new fire-resistant materials by comparing their burning characteristics with those of older aircraft materials are described. Three tests were conducted and are detailed. Test 1, using pre-1968 materials, was run to correlate the procedures and to compare the results with previous tests by other organizations. Test 2 included newer, improved fire-resistant materials. Test 3 was essentially a duplicate of test 2, but a smokeless fuel was used. Test objectives, methods, materials, and results are presented and discussed. Results indicate that the pre-1968 materials ignited easily, allowed the fire to spread, produced large amounts of smoke and toxic combustion products, and resulted in a flash fire and major fire damage. The newer fire-resistant materials did not allow the fire to spread. Furthermore, they produced less, lower concentrations of toxic combustion products, and lower temperatures. The newer materials did not produce a flash fire.

Image Discrimination Models With Stochastic Channel Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.; Beard, Bettina L.; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

Many models of human image processing feature a large fixed number of channels representing cortical units varying in spatial position (visual field direction and eccentricity) and spatial frequency (radial frequency and orientation). The values of these parameters are usually sampled at fixed values selected to ensure adequate overlap considering the bandwidth and/or spread parameters, which are usually fixed. Even high levels of overlap does not always ensure that the performance of the model will vary smoothly with image translation or scale changes. Physiological measurements of bandwidth and/or spread parameters result in a broad distribution of estimated parameter values and the prediction of some psychophysical results are facilitated by the assumption that these parameters also take on a range of values. Selecting a sample of channels from a continuum of channels rather than using a fixed set can make model performance vary smoothly with changes in image position, scale, and orientation. It also facilitates the addition of spatial inhomogeneity, nonlinear feature channels, and focus of attention to channel models.

The proximity of hotspots to convergent and divergent plate boundaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinstein, Stuart A.; Olson, Peter L.

1989-01-01

An analysis of four different hotspot distributions, ranging from Morgan's (1972) original list of 19 to Vogt's (1981) list of 117 reveals that the hotspots are preferentially located near divergent plate boundaries. The probability of this proximity occurring by chance alone is quite remote, less than 0.01 for all four hotspot distributions. The same analysis also reveals that the hotspots are preferentially excluded from regions near convergent plate boundaries. The probability of this exclusion occurring by chance alone is 0.1 or less for three out of the four distributions examined. We interpret this behavior as being a consequence of the effects of large scale convective circulation on ascending mantle plumes. Mantle thermal plumes, the most probable source of hotspots, arise from instabilities in a basal thermal boundary layer. Plumes are suppressed from regions beneath convergent boundaries by descending flow and are entrained into the upwelling flow beneath spreading centers. Plate-scale convective circulation driven by subduction may also advect mantle thermal plumes toward spreading centers.

Analytical Computation of the Epidemic Threshold on Temporal Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdano, Eugenio; Ferreri, Luca; Poletto, Chiara; Colizza, Vittoria

2015-04-01

The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the problem for the physics, applied mathematics, computer science, and epidemiology communities, a full theoretical understanding is still missing and currently limited to the cases where the time-scale separation holds between spreading and network dynamics or to specific temporal network models. We consider a Markov chain description of the susceptible-infectious-susceptible process on an arbitrary temporal network. By adopting a multilayer perspective, we develop a general analytical derivation of the epidemic threshold in terms of the spectral radius of a matrix that encodes both network structure and disease dynamics. The accuracy of the approach is confirmed on a set of temporal models and empirical networks and against numerical results. In addition, we explore how the threshold changes when varying the overall time of observation of the temporal network, so as to provide insights on the optimal time window for data collection of empirical temporal networked systems. Our framework is of both fundamental and practical interest, as it offers novel understanding of the interplay between temporal networks and spreading dynamics.

On the instability of wave-fields with JONSWAP spectra to inhomogeneous disturbances, and the consequent long-time evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribal, A.; Stiassnie, M.; Babanin, A.; Young, I.

2012-04-01

The instability of two-dimensional wave-fields and its subsequent evolution in time are studied by means of the Alber equation for narrow-banded random surface-waves in deep water subject to inhomogeneous disturbances. A linear partial differential equation (PDE) is obtained after applying an inhomogeneous disturbance to the Alber's equation and based on the solution of this PDE, the instability of the ocean wave surface is studied for a JONSWAP spectrum, which is a realistic ocean spectrum with variable directional spreading and steepness. The steepness of the JONSWAP spectrum depends on γ and α which are the peak-enhancement factor and energy scale of the spectrum respectively and it is found that instability depends on the directional spreading, α and γ. Specifically, if the instability stops due to the directional spreading, increase of the steepness by increasing α or γ can reactivate it. This result is in qualitative agreement with the recent large-scale experiment and new theoretical results. In the instability area of α-γ plane, a long-time evolution has been simulated by integrating Alber's equation numerically and recurrent evolution is obtained which is the stochastic counterpart of the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam recurrence obtained for the cubic Schrödinger equation.

Mid-Holocene cluster of large-scale landslides revealed in the Southwestern Alps by 36Cl dating. Insight on an Alpine-scale landslide activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerathe, Swann; Lebourg, Thomas; Braucher, Régis; Bourlès, Didier

2014-04-01

Although it is generally assumed that the internal structure of a slope (e.g. lithology and rock mass properties, inherited faults and heterogeneities, etc.) is preponderant for the progressive development of large-scale landslides, the ability to identify triggering factors responsible for final slope failures such as glacial debuttressing, seismic activities or climatic changes, especially when considering landslide cluster at an orogen-scale, is still debated. Highlighting in this study the spatial and temporal concordant clustering of deep-seated slope failures in the external Southwestern Alps, we discuss and review the possible causes for such wide-spread slope instabilities at both local and larger (Alpine) scale. High resolution field mapping coupled with electrical resistivity tomography first allows establishing an inventory of large landslides in the Southwestern Alps, determining their structural model, precising their depth limit (100-200 m) as well as the involved rock volumes (>107 m3). We show that they developed in the same geostructural context of thick mudstone layers overlain by faulted limestone and followed a block-spread model of deformation that could evolve in rock-collapse events. Cosmic ray exposure dating (CRE), using both 36Cl and 10Be in coexisting limestone and chert, respectively, has been carried out from the main scarps of six Deep Seated Landslides (DSL) and leads to landslide-failure CRE ages ranging from 3.7 to 4.7 ka. They highlighted: (i) mainly single and fast ruptures and (ii) a possible concomitant initiation with a main peak of activity between 3.3 and 5.1 ka, centered at ca 4.2 ka. Because this region was not affected by historical glaciations events, landslide triggering by glacial unloading can be excluded. The presented data combined with field observations preferentially suggest that these failures were climatically driven and were most likely controlled by high pressure changes in the karstic medium. In effect, the chronicle of failure-ages is concomitant to a well-known climatic pulse, the “4.2 ka” climate event characterized by intense hydrological perturbations associated to the heaviest rainfall period of the entire Holocene. Despite requiring further investigations and discussions, the dating of numerous events across the entire Alps during the middle Holocene period suggests a potential synchronous triggering of several large-scale gravitational-failures induced by the mid-Holocene climatic transition.

Transport and fate of river waters under flood conditions and rim current influence: the Mississippi River test case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourafalou, Villy; Androulidakis, Yannis

2013-04-01

Large river plumes are a major supplier of freshwater, sediments and nutrients in coastal and shelf seas. Novel processes controlling the transport and fate of riverine waters (and associated materials) will be presented, under flood conditions and in the presence of complex topography, ambient shelf circulation and slope processes, controlled by the interaction with rim currents. The Mississippi River (MR) freshwater outflow is chosen as a test case, as a major circulation forcing mechanism for the Northern Gulf of Mexico and a unique river plume for the intense interactions with a large scale ocean current, namely the Loop Current branch of the Gulf Stream, and associated eddy field. The largest MR outflow in history (45,000 m3/sec in 2011) is compared with the second largest outflow in the last 8 years (41,000 m3/sec in 2008). Realistically forced simulations, based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) with careful treatment of river plume dynamics and nested to a data assimilated, basin-wide model, reveal the synergistic effect of enhanced discharge, winds, stratification of ambient shelf waters and offshore circulation over the transport of plume waters. The investigation targets a broader understanding of the dynamics of large scale river plumes in general, and of the MR plume in particular. In addition, in situ observations from ship surveys and satellite chl-a data showed that the mathematical simulations with high temporal resolution river outflow input may reproduce adequately the buoyant waters spreading over the Northern Gulf of Mexico shelf and offshore areas. The fate of the river plume is strongly determined and affected by deep basin processes. The strong impacts of the Loop Current system (and its frontal eddies) on river plume evolution are of particular importance under conditions of increased offshore spreading, which is presumed under large discharge rates and can cause loss of riverine materials to the basin interior. Flood conditions can increase both downstream (westward) and upstream (eastward) spreading. The high outflow rates enhance the anticyclonic bulge, strengthen the downstream coastal current toward the western Louisiana-Texas shelf. The substantial eastward spreading over the eastern Mississippi-Alabama-Florida shelf was highly correlated with the Loop Current northward extension. On the contrary, cyclonic eddies east of the Delta effectively block the offshore eastward spreading of the plume and may keep the river waters away from the eastern shelf. We show that the proximity of eddies to the shelf break is a sufficient condition for shelf-to-offshore interaction, which is facilitated by the steep bottom topography near the Delta.

Political Influence on Japanese Nuclear and Security Policy: New Forces Face Large Obstacles

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-01

Fukushima incident immediately triggered a resurgence of the anti- nuclear power movement in Japan, and quickly enlarged it to national scale.80...Bottom-up Activism,” Asia-Pacific Issues 103 (January 2012). 57 time passes after the Fukushima incidents. Anti- nuclear -power sentiment in Japan...spread well beyond the areas immediately affected by either the Fukushima disasters themselves or by other nuclear plants

Unifying viral genetics and human transportation data to predict the global transmission dynamics of human influenza H3N2.

PubMed

Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Bedford, Trevor; Faria, Nuno; Bielejec, Filip; Baele, Guy; Russell, Colin A; Smith, Derek J; Pybus, Oliver G; Brockmann, Dirk; Suchard, Marc A

2014-02-01

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.

Jet Penetration into a Scaled Microfabricated Stirling Cycle Regenerator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, Liyong; Simon, Terrence W.; Mantell, Susan; Ibrahim, Mournir; Gedeon, David; Tew, Roy

2008-01-01

The cooler and heater adjacent to the regenerator of a Stirling cycle engine have tubes or channels which form jets that pass into the regenerator while diffusing within the matrix. An inactive part of the matrix, beyond the cores of these jets, does not participate fully in the heat transfer between the flow of working fluid and the regenerator matrix material, weakening the regenerator s ability to exchange heat with the working fluid. The objective of the present program is to document this effect on the performance of the regenerator and to develop a model for generalizing the results. However, the small scales of actual Stirling regenerator matrices (on the order of tens of microns) make direct measurements of this effect very difficult. As a result, jet spreading within a regenerator matrix has not been characterized well and is poorly understood. Also, modeling is lacking experimental verification. To address this, a large-scale mockup of thirty times actual scale was constructed and operated under conditions that are dynamically similar to the engine operation. Jet penetration with round jets and slot jets into the microfabricated regenerator geometry are then measured by conventional means. The results are compared with those from a study of spreading of round jets within woven screen regenerator for further documentation of the comparative performance of the microfabricated regenerator geometry.

Effect of LES models on the entrainment characteristics in a turbulent planar jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambel Lopes, Diogo; da Silva, Carlos; Raman, Venkat

2012-11-01

The effect of subgrid-scale (SGS) models in the jet spreading rate and centreline passive scalar decay rates are assessed and compared. The modelling of the subgrid-scale fluxes is particularly challenging in the turbulent/nonturbulent (T/NT) region that divides the two regions in the jet flow: the outer region where the flow is irrotational and the inner region where the flow is turbulent: it has been shown that important Reynolds stresses exist near the T/NT interface and that these stresses determine in part the mixing and combustion rates in jets. In this work direct and large-eddy simulations (DNS/LES) of turbulent planar jets are used to study the role of subgrid-scale models in the integral characteristics of the passive scalar mixing in a jet. LES show that different SGS modes lead to different spreading rates for the velocity and scalar fields, and the scalar quantities are more affected than the velocity e.g. SGS models affect strongly the centreline mean scalar decay than the centreline mean velocity decay. The results suggest the need for a minimum resolution close to the Taylor micro-scale in order to recover the correct results for the integral quantities and this can be explained by recent results on the dynamics of the T/NT interface.

Fabrication of superconductor-ferromagnet-insulator-superconductor Josephson junctions with critical current uniformity applicable to integrated circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Hiroshi; Taniguchi, Soya; Ishikawa, Kouta; Akaike, Hiroyuki; Fujimaki, Akira

2017-03-01

Nb Josephson junctions (JJs) were fabricated with a Pd89Ni11 ferromagnetic interlayer and an AlO x tunnel barrier layer for use in large-scale superconducting integrated circuits. The junctions had a small critical current (I c) spread, where the standard deviation 1σ was less than 2% at 4.2 K for junctions with the same designed size. It was observed that the electrical behavior of the junctions could be controlled by manipulating the film thickness of the PdNi interlayer. The junctions behaved as a π-JJ for thicknesses of 9 and 11 nm, showing 1σ in the I c spread of 1.2% for 9 nm.

Pollutant Transport and Fate: Relations Between Flow-paths and Downstream Impacts of Human Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorslund, J.; Jarsjo, J.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The quality of freshwater resources is increasingly impacted by human activities. Humans also extensively change the structure of landscapes, which may alter natural hydrological processes. To manage and maintain freshwater of good water quality, it is critical to understand how pollutants are released into, transported and transformed within the hydrological system. Some key scientific questions include: What are net downstream impacts of pollutants across different hydroclimatic and human disturbance conditions, and on different scales? What are the functions within and between components of the landscape, such as wetlands, on mitigating pollutant load delivery to downstream recipients? We explore these questions by synthesizing results from several relevant case study examples of intensely human-impacted hydrological systems. These case study sites have been specifically evaluated in terms of net impact of human activities on pollutant input to the aquatic system, as well as flow-path distributions trough wetlands as a potential ecosystem service of pollutant mitigation. Results shows that although individual wetlands have high retention capacity, efficient net retention effects were not always achieved at a larger landscape scale. Evidence suggests that the function of wetlands as mitigation solutions to pollutant loads is largely controlled by large-scale parallel and circular flow-paths, through which multiple wetlands are interconnected in the landscape. To achieve net mitigation effects at large scale, a large fraction of the polluted large-scale flows must be transported through multiple connected wetlands. Although such large-scale flow interactions are critical for assessing water pollution spreading and fate through the landscape, our synthesis shows a frequent lack of knowledge at such scales. We suggest ways forward for addressing the mismatch between the large scales at which key pollutant pressures and water quality changes take place and the relatively scale at which most studies and implementations are currently made. These suggestions can help bridge critical knowledge gaps, as needed for improving water quality predictions and mitigation solutions under human and environmental changes.

Tectonic and magmatic controls on hydrothermal activity in the Woodlark Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurila, T. E.; Petersen, S.; Devey, C. W.; Baker, E. T.; Augustin, N.; Hannington, M. D.

2012-09-01

The Woodlark Basin is one of the rare places on earth where the transition from continental breakup to seafloor spreading can be observed. The potential juxtaposition of continental rocks, a large magmatic heat source, crustal-scale faulting, and hydrothermal circulation has made the Woodlark Basin a prime target for seafloor mineral exploration. However, over the past 20 years, only two locations of active hydrothermalism had been found. In 2009 we surveyed 435 km of the spreading axis for the presence of hydrothermal plumes. Only one additional plume was found, bringing the total number of plumes known over 520 km of ridge axis to only 3, much less than at ridges with similar spreading rates globally. Particularly the western half of the basin (280 km of axis) is apparently devoid of high temperature plumes despite having thick crust and a presumably high magmatic budget. This paucity of hydrothermal activity may be related to the peculiar tectonic setting at Woodlark, where repeated ridge jumps and a re-location of the rotation pole both lead to axial magmatism being more widely distributed than at many other, more mature and stable mid-ocean ridges. These factors could inhibit the development of both a stable magmatic heat source and the deeply penetrating faults needed to create long-lived hydrothermal systems. We conclude that large seafloor massive sulfide deposits, potential targets for seafloor mineral exploration, will probably not be present along the spreading axis of the Woodlark Basin, especially in its younger, western portion.

Locating the source of diffusion in complex networks by time-reversal backward spreading.

PubMed

Shen, Zhesi; Cao, Shinan; Wang, Wen-Xu; Di, Zengru; Stanley, H Eugene

2016-03-01

Locating the source that triggers a dynamical process is a fundamental but challenging problem in complex networks, ranging from epidemic spreading in society and on the Internet to cancer metastasis in the human body. An accurate localization of the source is inherently limited by our ability to simultaneously access the information of all nodes in a large-scale complex network. This thus raises two critical questions: how do we locate the source from incomplete information and can we achieve full localization of sources at any possible location from a given set of observable nodes. Here we develop a time-reversal backward spreading algorithm to locate the source of a diffusion-like process efficiently and propose a general locatability condition. We test the algorithm by employing epidemic spreading and consensus dynamics as typical dynamical processes and apply it to the H1N1 pandemic in China. We find that the sources can be precisely located in arbitrary networks insofar as the locatability condition is assured. Our tools greatly improve our ability to locate the source of diffusion in complex networks based on limited accessibility of nodal information. Moreover, they have implications for controlling a variety of dynamical processes taking place on complex networks, such as inhibiting epidemics, slowing the spread of rumors, pollution control, and environmental protection.

Locating the source of diffusion in complex networks by time-reversal backward spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Zhesi; Cao, Shinan; Wang, Wen-Xu; Di, Zengru; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-03-01

Locating the source that triggers a dynamical process is a fundamental but challenging problem in complex networks, ranging from epidemic spreading in society and on the Internet to cancer metastasis in the human body. An accurate localization of the source is inherently limited by our ability to simultaneously access the information of all nodes in a large-scale complex network. This thus raises two critical questions: how do we locate the source from incomplete information and can we achieve full localization of sources at any possible location from a given set of observable nodes. Here we develop a time-reversal backward spreading algorithm to locate the source of a diffusion-like process efficiently and propose a general locatability condition. We test the algorithm by employing epidemic spreading and consensus dynamics as typical dynamical processes and apply it to the H1N1 pandemic in China. We find that the sources can be precisely located in arbitrary networks insofar as the locatability condition is assured. Our tools greatly improve our ability to locate the source of diffusion in complex networks based on limited accessibility of nodal information. Moreover, they have implications for controlling a variety of dynamical processes taking place on complex networks, such as inhibiting epidemics, slowing the spread of rumors, pollution control, and environmental protection.

Hierarchical Genetic Analysis of German Cockroach (Blattella germanica) Populations from within Buildings to across Continents

PubMed Central

Vargo, Edward L.; Crissman, Jonathan R.; Booth, Warren; Santangelo, Richard G.; Mukha, Dmitry V.; Schal, Coby

2014-01-01

Understanding the population structure of species that disperse primarily by human transport is essential to predicting and controlling human-mediated spread of invasive species. The German cockroach (Blattella germanica) is a widespread urban invader that can actively disperse within buildings but is spread solely by human-mediated dispersal over longer distances; however, its population structure is poorly understood. Using microsatellite markers we investigated population structure at several spatial scales, from populations within single apartment buildings to populations from several cities across the U.S. and Eurasia. Both traditional measures of genetic differentiation and Bayesian clustering methods revealed increasing levels of genetic differentiation at greater geographic scales. Our results are consistent with active dispersal of cockroaches largely limited to movement within a building. Their low levels of genetic differentiation, yet limited active spread between buildings, suggests a greater likelihood of human-mediated dispersal at more local scales (within a city) than at larger spatial scales (within and between continents). About half the populations from across the U.S. clustered together with other U.S. populations, and isolation by distance was evident across the U.S. Levels of genetic differentiation among Eurasian cities were greater than those in the U.S. and greater than those between the U.S. and Eurasia, but no clear pattern of structure at the continent level was detected. MtDNA sequence variation was low and failed to reveal any geographical structure. The weak genetic structure detected here is likely due to a combination of historical admixture among populations and periodic population bottlenecks and founder events, but more extensive studies are needed to determine whether signatures of global movement may be present in this species. PMID:25020136

High-resolution seismic constraints on flow dynamics in the oceanic asthenosphere.

PubMed

Lin, Pei-Ying Patty; Gaherty, James B; Jin, Ge; Collins, John A; Lizarralde, Daniel; Evans, Rob L; Hirth, Greg

2016-07-28

Convective flow in the mantle and the motions of tectonic plates produce deformation of Earth's interior, and the rock fabric produced by this deformation can be discerned using the anisotropy of the seismic wave speed. This deformation is commonly inferred close to lithospheric boundaries beneath the ocean in the uppermost mantle, including near seafloor-spreading centres as new plates are formed via corner flow, and within a weak asthenosphere that lubricates large-scale plate-driven flow and accommodates smaller scale convection. Seismic models of oceanic upper mantle differ as to the relative importance of these deformation processes: seafloor spreading fabric is very strong just beneath the crust-mantle boundary (the Mohorovičić discontinuity, or Moho) at relatively local scales, but at the global and ocean-basin scales, oceanic lithosphere typically appears weakly anisotropic when compared to the asthenosphere. Here we use Rayleigh waves, recorded across an ocean-bottom seismograph array in the central Pacific Ocean (the NoMelt Experiment), to provide unique localized constraints on seismic anisotropy within the oceanic lithosphere-asthenosphere system in the middle of a plate. We find that azimuthal anisotropy is strongest within the high-seismic-velocity lid, with the fast direction coincident with seafloor spreading. A minimum in the magnitude of azimuthal anisotropy occurs within the middle of the seismic low-velocity zone, and then increases with depth below the weakest portion of the asthenosphere. At no depth does the fast direction correlate with the apparent plate motion. Our results suggest that the highest strain deformation in the shallow oceanic mantle occurs during corner flow at the ridge axis, and via pressure-driven or buoyancy-driven flow within the asthenosphere. Shear associated with motion of the plate over the underlying asthenosphere, if present, is weak compared to these other processes.

Reverse preferential spread in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyoizumi, Hiroshi; Tani, Seiichi; Miyoshi, Naoto; Okamoto, Yoshio

2012-08-01

Large-degree nodes may have a larger influence on the network, but they can be bottlenecks for spreading information since spreading attempts tend to concentrate on these nodes and become redundant. We discuss that the reverse preferential spread (distributing information inversely proportional to the degree of the receiving node) has an advantage over other spread mechanisms. In large uncorrelated networks, we show that the mean number of nodes that receive information under the reverse preferential spread is an upper bound among any other weight-based spread mechanisms, and this upper bound is indeed a logistic growth independent of the degree distribution.

Identifying Nodes of Transmission in Disease Diffusion Through Social Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, David Sebastian

The spread of infectious diseases can be described in terms of three interrelated components: interaction, movement, and scale. Transmission between individuals requires some form of interaction, which is dependent on the pathogen, to occur. Diseases spread through the movement of their hosts; they spread across many spatial scales from local neighborhoods to countries, or temporal scales from days to years, or periodic intervals. Prior research into the spread of disease have examined diffusion processes retrospectively at regional or country levels, or developed differential equation or simulation models of the dynamics of disease transmission. While some of the more recent models incorporate all three components, they are limited in the way they understand where interactions occur. The focus has been on home or work, including contact with family or coworkers. The models reflect a lack of knowledge about how transmissions are made at specific locations in time, so-called nodes of transmission. That is, how individuals' intersections in time and space function in disease transmission. This project sought to use the three factors of interaction, movement, and scale to better understand the spread of disease in terms of the place of interaction called the node of transmission. The overarching objective of this research was: how can nodes of transmission be identified through individual activity spaces incorporating the three factors of infectious disease spread: interaction, movement, and scale?. This objective fed into three main sub-objectives: defining nodes of transmission, developing an appropriate methodology to identifying nodes of transmission, and applying it using geotagged social media data from Twitter. To develop an appropriate framework, this research relied on time geography, and traditional disease. This particularly relied on the idea of bundling to create the nodes, and a nesting effect that integrated scale. The data source used to identify nodes of transmission was collected from Twitter for the Los Angeles County, USA, area from October 2015 to February 2016. Automated text classification was used to identify messages where users self-reported an influenza-like-illness. Different groupings were created that combined both the syndrome and the symptoms of influenza, and applied to the automated classification. The use of Twitter for small-area health analysis was evaluated along with different text classification methodologies. A space-time hierarchical clustering technique was adapted to be applied towards the twitter data in both identifying nodes of transmission and identifying spatiotemporal contact networks. This clustering data was applied to the classified Twitter data to look at where interaction between the classified users were occurring. This pointed to six nodes that were typically densely populated areas that saw the merging of large groups of people in Los Angeles (e.g. Disneyland and Hollywood Boulevard).The movement of these individuals were also examined by using a edit distance to compare their visits to different clusters and nodes.

Electric Field and Plasma Density Observations of Irregularities and Plasma Instabilities in the Low Latitude Ionosphere Gathered by the C/NOFS Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfaff, Robert F.; Freudenreich, H.; Rowland, D.; Klenzing, J.; Liebrecht, C.

2012-01-01

The Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the C/NOFS equatorial satellite provides a unique data set which includes detailed measurements of irregularities associated with the equatorial ionosphere and in particular with spread-F depletions. We present vector AC electric field observations gathered on C/NOFS that address a variety of key questions regarding how plasma irregularities, from meter to kilometer scales, are created and evolve. The talk focuses on occasions where the ionosphere F-peak has been elevated above the C/NOFS satellite perigee of 400 km as solar activity has increased. In particular, during the equinox periods of 2011, the satellite consistently journeyed below the F-peak whenever the orbit was in the region of the South Atlantic anomaly after sunset. During these passes, data from the electric field and plasma density probes on the satellite have revealed two types of instabilities which had not previously been observed in the C/NOFS data set: The first is evidence for 400-500km-scale bottomside "undulations" that appear in the density and electric field data. In one case, these large scale waves are associated with a strong shear in the zonal E x B flow, as evidenced by variations in the meridional (outward) electric fields observed above and below the F-peak. These undulations are devoid of smaller scale structures in the early evening, yet appear at later local times along the same orbit associated with fully-developed spread-F with smaller scale structures. This suggests that they may be precursor waves for spread-F, driven by a collisional shear instability, following ideas advanced previously by researchers using data from the Jicamarca radar. A second result is the appearance of km-scale irregularities that are a common feature in the electric field and plasma density data that also appear when the satellite is near or below the F-peak at night. The vector electric field instrument on C/NOFS clearly shows that the electric field component of these waves is strongest in the zonal direction. These waves are strongly correlated with simultaneous observations of plasma density oscillations and appear both with, and without, evidence of larger-scale spread-F depletions. These km-scale, quasi-coherent waves strongly resemble the bottomside, sinusoidal irregularities reported in the Atmosphere Explorer satellite data set by Valladares et al. and are believed to cause scintillations of VHF radiowaves. We interpret these new observations in terms of fundamental plasma instabilities associated with the unstable, nighttime equatorial ionosphere.

Artificial plasma cusp generated by upper hybrid instabilities in HF heating experiments at HAARP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Spencer; Snyder, Arnold

2013-05-01

High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program digisonde was operated in a fast mode to record ionospheric modifications by the HF heating wave. With the O mode heater of 3.2 MHz turned on for 2 min, significant virtual height spread was observed in the heater off ionograms, acquired beginning the moment the heater turned off. Moreover, there is a noticeable bump in the virtual height spread of the ionogram trace that appears next to the plasma frequency (~ 2.88 MHz) of the upper hybrid resonance layer of the HF heating wave. The enhanced spread and the bump disappear in the subsequent heater off ionograms recorded 1 min later. The height distribution of the ionosphere in the spread situation indicates that both electron density and temperature increases exceed 10% over a large altitude region (> 30 km) from below to above the upper hybrid resonance layer. This "mini cusp" (bump) is similar to the cusp occurring in daytime ionograms at the F1-F2 layer transition, indicating that there is a small ledge in the density profile reminiscent of F1-F2 layer transitions. Two parametric processes exciting upper hybrid waves as the sidebands by the HF heating waves are studied. Field-aligned purely growing mode and lower hybrid wave are the respective decay modes. The excited upper hybrid and lower hybrid waves introduce the anomalous electron heating which results in the ionization enhancement and localized density ledge. The large-scale density irregularities formed in the heat flow, together with the density irregularities formed through the parametric instability, give rise to the enhanced virtual height spread. The results of upper hybrid instability analysis are also applied to explain the descending feature in the development of the artificial ionization layers observed in electron cyclotron harmonic resonance heating experiments.

Implications of Extreme Life Span in Clonal Organisms: Millenary Clones in Meadows of the Threatened Seagrass Posidonia oceanica

PubMed Central

Arnaud-Haond, Sophie; Duarte, Carlos M.; Diaz-Almela, Elena; Marbà, Núria; Sintes, Tomas; Serrão, Ester A.

2012-01-01

The maximum size and age that clonal organisms can reach remains poorly known, although we do know that the largest natural clones can extend over hundreds or thousands of metres and potentially live for centuries. We made a review of findings to date, which reveal that the maximum clone age and size estimates reported in the literature are typically limited by the scale of sampling, and may grossly underestimate the maximum age and size of clonal organisms. A case study presented here shows the occurrence of clones of slow-growing marine angiosperm Posidonia oceanica at spatial scales ranging from metres to hundreds of kilometres, using microsatellites on 1544 sampling units from a total of 40 locations across the Mediterranean Sea. This analysis revealed the presence, with a prevalence of 3.5 to 8.9%, of very large clones spreading over one to several (up to 15) kilometres at the different locations. Using estimates from field studies and models of the clonal growth of P. oceanica, we estimated these large clones to be hundreds to thousands of years old, suggesting the evolution of general purpose genotypes with large phenotypic plasticity in this species. These results, obtained combining genetics, demography and model-based calculations, question present knowledge and understanding of the spreading capacity and life span of plant clones. These findings call for further research on these life history traits associated with clonality, considering their possible ecological and evolutionary implications. PMID:22312426

Towards Data-Driven Simulations of Wildfire Spread using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Bart, J.; Ricci, S. M.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.; Duchaine, F.; Morel, T.

2012-12-01

Real-time predictions of a propagating wildfire remain a challenging task because the problem involves both multi-physics and multi-scales. The propagation speed of wildfires, also called the rate of spread (ROS), is indeed determined by complex interactions between pyrolysis, combustion and flow dynamics, atmospheric dynamics occurring at vegetation, topographical and meteorological scales. Current operational fire spread models are mainly based on a semi-empirical parameterization of the ROS in terms of vegetation, topographical and meteorological properties. For the fire spread simulation to be predictive and compatible with operational applications, the uncertainty on the ROS model should be reduced. As recent progress made in remote sensing technology provides new ways to monitor the fire front position, a promising approach to overcome the difficulties found in wildfire spread simulations is to integrate fire modeling and fire sensing technologies using data assimilation (DA). For this purpose we have developed a prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator in order to provide optimal estimates of poorly known model parameters [*]. The data-driven simulation capability is adapted for more realistic wildfire spread : it considers a regional-scale fire spread model that is informed by observations of the fire front location. An Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm (EnKF) based on a parallel computing platform (OpenPALM) was implemented in order to perform a multi-parameter sequential estimation where wind magnitude and direction are in addition to vegetation properties (see attached figure). The EnKF algorithm shows its good ability to track a small-scale grassland fire experiment and ensures a good accounting for the sensitivity of the simulation outcomes to the control parameters. As a conclusion, it was shown that data assimilation is a promising approach to more accurately forecast time-varying wildfire spread conditions as new airborne-like observations of the fire front location get available. [*] Rochoux, M.C., Delmotte, B., Cuenot, B., Ricci, S., and Trouvé, A. (2012) "Regional-scale simulations of wildland fire spread informed by real-time flame front observations", Proc. Combust. Inst., 34, in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proci.2012.06.090 EnKF-based tracking of small-scale grassland fire experiment, with estimation of wind and fuel parameters.

Understanding metropolitan patterns of daily encounters.

PubMed

Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W; Lee, Der-Horng; Huang, Xianfeng

2013-08-20

Understanding of the mechanisms driving our daily face-to-face encounters is still limited; the field lacks large-scale datasets describing both individual behaviors and their collective interactions. However, here, with the help of travel smart card data, we uncover such encounter mechanisms and structures by constructing a time-resolved in-vehicle social encounter network on public buses in a city (about 5 million residents). Using a population scale dataset, we find physical encounters display reproducible temporal patterns, indicating that repeated encounters are regular and identical. On an individual scale, we find that collective regularities dominate distinct encounters' bounded nature. An individual's encounter capability is rooted in his/her daily behavioral regularity, explaining the emergence of "familiar strangers" in daily life. Strikingly, we find individuals with repeated encounters are not grouped into small communities, but become strongly connected over time, resulting in a large, but imperceptible, small-world contact network or "structure of co-presence" across the whole metropolitan area. Revealing the encounter pattern and identifying this large-scale contact network are crucial to understanding the dynamics in patterns of social acquaintances, collective human behaviors, and--particularly--disclosing the impact of human behavior on various diffusion/spreading processes.

Understanding metropolitan patterns of daily encounters

PubMed Central

Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W.; Lee, Der-Horng; Huang, Xianfeng

2013-01-01

Understanding of the mechanisms driving our daily face-to-face encounters is still limited; the field lacks large-scale datasets describing both individual behaviors and their collective interactions. However, here, with the help of travel smart card data, we uncover such encounter mechanisms and structures by constructing a time-resolved in-vehicle social encounter network on public buses in a city (about 5 million residents). Using a population scale dataset, we find physical encounters display reproducible temporal patterns, indicating that repeated encounters are regular and identical. On an individual scale, we find that collective regularities dominate distinct encounters’ bounded nature. An individual’s encounter capability is rooted in his/her daily behavioral regularity, explaining the emergence of “familiar strangers” in daily life. Strikingly, we find individuals with repeated encounters are not grouped into small communities, but become strongly connected over time, resulting in a large, but imperceptible, small-world contact network or “structure of co-presence” across the whole metropolitan area. Revealing the encounter pattern and identifying this large-scale contact network are crucial to understanding the dynamics in patterns of social acquaintances, collective human behaviors, and—particularly—disclosing the impact of human behavior on various diffusion/spreading processes. PMID:23918373

A stakeholder-driven agenda for advancing the science and practice of scale-up and spread in health.

PubMed

Norton, Wynne E; McCannon, C Joseph; Schall, Marie W; Mittman, Brian S

2012-12-06

Although significant advances have been made in implementation science, comparatively less attention has been paid to broader scale-up and spread of effective health programs at the regional, national, or international level. To address this gap in research, practice and policy attention, representatives from key stakeholder groups launched an initiative to identify gaps and stimulate additional interest and activity in scale-up and spread of effective health programs. We describe the background and motivation for this initiative and the content, process, and outcomes of two main phases comprising the core of the initiative: a state-of-the-art conference to develop recommendations for advancing scale-up and spread and a follow-up activity to operationalize and prioritize the recommendations. The conference was held in Washington, D.C. during July 2010 and attended by 100 representatives from research, practice, policy, public health, healthcare, and international health communities; the follow-up activity was conducted remotely the following year. Conference attendees identified and prioritized five recommendations (and corresponding sub-recommendations) for advancing scale-up and spread in health: increase awareness, facilitate information exchange, develop new methods, apply new approaches for evaluation, and expand capacity. In the follow-up activity, 'develop new methods' was rated as most important recommendation; expanding capacity was rated as least important, although differences were relatively minor. Based on the results of these efforts, we discuss priority activities that are needed to advance research, practice and policy to accelerate the scale-up and spread of effective health programs.

A molecular marker of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariey, Frédéric; Witkowski, Benoit; Amaratunga, Chanaki; Beghain, Johann; Langlois, Anne-Claire; Khim, Nimol; Kim, Saorin; Duru, Valentine; Bouchier, Christiane; Ma, Laurence; Lim, Pharath; Leang, Rithea; Duong, Socheat; Sreng, Sokunthea; Suon, Seila; Chuor, Char Meng; Bout, Denis Mey; Ménard, Sandie; Rogers, William O.; Genton, Blaise; Fandeur, Thierry; Miotto, Olivo; Ringwald, Pascal; Le Bras, Jacques; Berry, Antoine; Barale, Jean-Christophe; Fairhurst, Rick M.; Benoit-Vical, Françoise; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile; Ménard, Didier

2014-01-01

Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinin derivatives in southeast Asia threatens malaria control and elimination activities worldwide. To monitor the spread of artemisinin resistance, a molecular marker is urgently needed. Here, using whole-genome sequencing of an artemisinin-resistant parasite line from Africa and clinical parasite isolates from Cambodia, we associate mutations in the PF3D7_1343700 kelch propeller domain (`K13-propeller') with artemisinin resistance in vitro and in vivo. Mutant K13-propeller alleles cluster in Cambodian provinces where resistance is prevalent, and the increasing frequency of a dominant mutant K13-propeller allele correlates with the recent spread of resistance in western Cambodia. Strong correlations between the presence of a mutant allele, in vitro parasite survival rates and in vivo parasite clearance rates indicate that K13-propeller mutations are important determinants of artemisinin resistance. K13-propeller polymorphism constitutes a useful molecular marker for large-scale surveillance efforts to contain artemisinin resistance in the Greater Mekong Subregion and prevent its global spread.

A molecular marker of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria

PubMed Central

Ariey, Frédéric; Witkowski, Benoit; Amaratunga, Chanaki; Beghain, Johann; Langlois, Anne-Claire; Khim, Nimol; Kim, Saorin; Duru, Valentine; Bouchier, Christiane; Ma, Laurence; Lim, Pharath; Leang, Rithea; Duong, Socheat; Sreng, Sokunthea; Suon, Seila; Chuor, Char Meng; Bout, Denis Mey; Ménard, Sandie; Rogers, William O.; Genton, Blaise; Fandeur, Thierry; Miotto, Olivo; Ringwald, Pascal; Le Bras, Jacques; Berry, Antoine; Barale, Jean-Christophe; Fairhurst, Rick M.; Benoit-Vical, Françoise; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile; Ménard, Didier

2016-01-01

Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinin derivatives in southeast Asia threatens malaria control and elimination activities worldwide. To monitor the spread of artemisinin resistance, a molecular marker is urgently needed. Here, using whole-genome sequencing of an artemisinin-resistant parasite line from Africa and clinical parasite isolates from Cambodia, we associate mutations in the PF3D7_1343700 kelch propeller domain (‘K13-propeller’) with artemisinin resistance in vitro and in vivo. Mutant K13-propeller alleles cluster in Cambodian provinces where resistance is prevalent, and the increasing frequency of a dominant mutant K13-propeller allele correlates with the recent spread of resistance in western Cambodia. Strong correlations between the presence of a mutant allele, in vitro parasite survival rates and in vivo parasite clearance rates indicate that K13-propeller mutations are important determinants of artemisinin resistance. K13-propeller polymorphism constitutes a useful molecular marker for large-scale surveillance efforts to contain artemisinin resistance in the Greater Mekong Subregion and prevent its global spread. PMID:24352242

Market-implied spread for earthquake CAT bonds: financial implications of engineering decisions.

PubMed

Damnjanovic, Ivan; Aslan, Zafer; Mander, John

2010-12-01

In the event of natural and man-made disasters, owners of large-scale infrastructure facilities (assets) need contingency plans to effectively restore the operations within the acceptable timescales. Traditionally, the insurance sector provides the coverage against potential losses. However, there are many problems associated with this traditional approach to risk transfer including counterparty risk and litigation. Recently, a number of innovative risk mitigation methods, termed alternative risk transfer (ART) methods, have been introduced to address these problems. One of the most important ART methods is catastrophe (CAT) bonds. The objective of this article is to develop an integrative model that links engineering design parameters with financial indicators including spread and bond rating. The developed framework is based on a four-step structural loss model and transformed survival model to determine expected excess returns. We illustrate the framework for a seismically designed bridge using two unique CAT bond contracts. The results show a nonlinear relationship between engineering design parameters and market-implied spread. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

PubMed Central

Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

2014-01-01

Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

Spatial patterns of schistosomiasis in Burkina Faso: relevance of human mobility and water resources development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Saez, Javier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Frohelich, Jean-Marc; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Sou, Mariam; Yacouba, Hamma; Maiga, Hamadou; Sokolow, Susanne; De Leo, Giulio; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

We study the spatial geography of schistosomiasis in the african context of Burkina Faso by means of a spatially explicit model of disease dynamics and spread. The relevance of our work lies in its ability to describe quantitatively a geographic stratification of the disease burden capable of reproducing important spatial differences, and drivers/controls of disease spread. Among the latters, we consider specifically the development and management of water resources which have been singled out empirically as an important risk factor for schistosomiasis. The model includes remotely acquired and objectively manipulated information on the distributions of population, infrastructure, elevation and climatic drivers. It also includes a general description of human mobility and addresses a first-order characterization of the ecology of the intermediate host of the parasite causing the disease based on maximum entropy learning of relevant environmenal covariates. Spatial patterns of the disease were analyzed about their disease-free equilibrium by proper extraction and mapping of suitable eigenvectors of the Jacobian matrix subsuming all stability properties of the system. Human mobility was found to be a primary control of both pathogen invasion success and of the overall distribution of disease burden. The effects of water resources development were studied by accounting for the (prior and posterior) average distances of human settlements from water bodies that may serve as suitable habitats to the intermediate host of the parasite. Water developments, in combination with human mobility, were quantitatively related to disease spread into regions previously nearly disease-free and to large-scale empirical incidence patterns. We concluded that while the model still needs refinements based on field and epidemiological evidence, the framework proposed provides a powerful tool for large-scale, long-term public health planning and management of schistosomiasis.

Resolving the Circumstellar Environment of the Galactic B[e] Supergiant Star MWC 137 from Large to Small Scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kraus, Michaela; Nickeler, Dieter H.; Liimets, Tiina

The Galactic object MWC 137 has been suggested to belong to the group of B[e] supergiants. However, with its large-scale optical bipolar ring nebula and high-velocity jet and knots, it is a rather atypical representative of this class. We performed multiwavelength observations spreading from the optical to the radio regimes. Based on optical imaging and long-slit spectroscopic data, we found that the northern parts of the large-scale nebula are predominantly blueshifted, while the southern regions appear mostly redshifted. We developed a geometrical model consisting of two double cones. Although various observational features can be approximated with such a scenario, themore » observed velocity pattern is more complex. Using near-infrared integral-field unit spectroscopy, we studied the hot molecular gas in the vicinity of the star. The emission from the hot CO gas arises in a small-scale disk revolving around the star on Keplerian orbits. Although the disk itself cannot be spatially resolved, its emission is reflected by the dust arranged in arc-like structures and the clumps surrounding MWC 137 on small scales. In the radio regime, we mapped the cold molecular gas in the outskirts of the optical nebula. We found that large amounts of cool molecular gas and warm dust embrace the optical nebula in the east, south, and west. No cold gas or dust was detected in the north and northwestern regions. Despite the new insights into the nebula kinematics gained from our studies, the real formation scenario of the large-scale nebula remains an open issue.« less

Spreading speeds for plant populations in landscapes with low environmental variation.

PubMed

Gilbert, Mark A; Gaffney, Eamonn A; Bullock, James M; White, Steven M

2014-12-21

Characterising the spread of biological populations is crucial in responding to both biological invasions and the shifting of habitat under climate change. Spreading speeds can be studied through mathematical models such as the discrete-time integro-difference equation (IDE) framework. The usual approach in implementing IDE models has been to ignore spatial variation in the demographic and dispersal parameters and to assume that these are spatially homogeneous. On the other hand, real landscapes are rarely spatially uniform with environmental variation being very important in determining biological spread. This raises the question of under what circumstances spatial structure need not be modelled explicitly. Recent work has shown that spatial variation can be ignored for the specific case where the scale of landscape variation is much smaller than the spreading population׳s dispersal scale. We consider more general types of landscape, where the spatial scales of environmental variation are arbitrarily large, but the maximum change in environmental parameters is relatively small. We find that the difference between the wave-speeds of populations spreading in a spatially structured periodic landscape and its homogenisation is, in general, proportional to ϵ(2), where ϵ governs the degree of environmental variation. For stochastically generated landscapes we numerically demonstrate that the error decays faster than ϵ. In both cases, this means that for sufficiently small ϵ, the homogeneous approximation is better than might be expected. Hence, in many situations, the precise details of the landscape can be ignored in favour of spatially homogeneous parameters. This means that field ecologists can use the homogeneous IDE as a relatively simple modelling tool--in terms of both measuring parameter values and doing the modelling itself. However, as ϵ increases, this homogeneous approximation loses its accuracy. The change in wave-speed due to the extrinsic (landscape) variation can be positive or negative, which is in contrast to the reduction in wave-speed caused by intrinsic stochasticity. To deal with the loss of accuracy as ϵ increases, we formulate a second-order approximation to the wave-speed for periodic landscapes and compare both approximations against the results of numerical simulation and show that they are both accurate for the range of landscapes considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Analysis of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooker, J. E.; Dietrich, D. L.; Gokoglu, S. A.; Urban, D. L.; Ruff, G. A.

2015-01-01

An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).

Magma Supply at the Arctic Gakkel Ridge: Constraints from Peridotites and Basalts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, C.; Dick, H. J.; Hellebrand, E.; Snow, J. E.

2015-12-01

Crustal thickness in global ridge systems is widely believed to be nearly uniform (~7 km) at slow- and fast-spreading mid-ocean ridges, but appears significantly thinner (< ~4 km) at ultraslow-spreading ridges. At the slowest-spreading Arctic Gakkel Ridge, the crust becomes extremely thin (1.4 - 2.9 km; [1]). The thin crust at the Gakkel and other ultraslow-spreading ridges, has been attributed to lithosphere thickening, ancient mantle depletion, lower mantle temperature, ridge obliquity, and melt retention/focusing. To better understand the magma supply at ultraslow-spreading ridges, we examined melting dynamics by linking peridotites and basalts dredged along the Gakkel Ridge. We analyzed rare earth elements in clinopyroxene from 84 residual peridotites, and estimated melting parameters for individual samples through nonlinear least squares analyses. The degrees of melting show a large variation but mainly center at around 7% assuming a somewhat arbitrary but widely used depleted MORB mantle starting composition. Thermobarometry on published primitive basaltic glasses from [2] indicates that the mantle potential temperature at the Gakkel Ridge is ~50°C cooler than that at the East Pacific Rise. The ridge-scale low-degree melting and lower mantle potential temperature place the final depth of melting at ~30 km and a melt thickness of 1.0 or 2.9 km for a triangular or trapezoidal melting regime, respectively. The final melting depth is consistent with excess conductive cooling and lithosphere thickening suggested by geodynamic models, while the estimated melt thickness is comparable to the seismic crust (1.4 - 2.9 km; [1]). The general agreement among geochemical analyses, seismic measurements, and geodynamic models supports that lower mantle potential temperature and thick lithosphere determine the ridge-scale low-degree melting and thin crust at the Gakkel Ridge, while melt retention/focusing and excess ancient mantle depletion are perhaps locally important at short length scales (e.g., < 50 - 100 km). [1] Jokat and Schmidt-Aursch (2007) Geophys. J. Int. (2007) 168, 983-998. [2] Gale et al. (2012) J. Petrology, 55, 1051-1082.

Ocean warming and spread of pathogenic vibrios in the aquatic environment.

PubMed

Vezzulli, Luigi; Colwell, Rita R; Pruzzo, Carla

2013-05-01

Vibrios are among the most common bacteria that inhabit surface waters throughout the world and are responsible for a number of severe infections both in humans and animals. Several reports recently showed that human Vibrio illnesses are increasing worldwide including fatal acute diarrheal diseases, such as cholera, gastroenteritis, wound infections, and septicemia. Many scientists believe this increase may be associated with global warming and rise in sea surface temperature (SST), although not enough evidence is available to support a causal link between emergence of Vibrio infections and climate warming. The effect of increased SST in promoting spread of vibrios in coastal and brackish waters is considered a causal factor explaining this trend. Field and laboratory studies carried out over the past 40 years supported this hypothesis, clearly showing temperature promotes Vibrio growth and persistence in the aquatic environment. Most recently, a long-term retrospective microbiological study carried out in the coastal waters of the southern North Sea provided the first experimental evidence for a positive and significant relationship between SST and Vibrio occurrence over a multidecadal time scale. As a future challenge, macroecological studies of the effects of ocean warming on Vibrio persistence and spread in the aquatic environment over large spatial and temporal scales would conclusively support evidence acquired to date combined with studies of the impact of global warming on epidemiologically relevant variables, such as host susceptibility and exposure. Assessing a causal link between ongoing climate change and enhanced growth and spread of vibrios and related illness is expected to improve forecast and mitigate future outbreaks associated with these pathogens.

Stratification, Integration and Challenges to Authority in Contemporary South Korea,

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-31

the middle classes and the spread of middle class life styles and e:c)Betations throughout society is partic-larly marked. Large scale generational...educational qualification,: sharply limit a person’s life chances. Those in :-id> clas -- cupations are usul’lly able to pro-- de a supcrior education...bilit-y cf credit, more advanced agricultural technooy, greater urban demnzd for food, and increased gOverzient investnonzl i.n rural infrastructure

Wetting and spreading behaviors of impinging microdroplets on textured surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Dae Hee; Lee, Sang Joon; CenterBiofluid and Biomimic Reseach Team

2012-11-01

Textured surfaces having an array of microscale pillars have been receiving large attention because of their potential uses for robust superhydrophobic and superoleophobic surfaces. In many practical applications, the textured surfaces usually accompany impinging small-scale droplets. To better understand the impinging phenomena on the textured surfaces, the wetting and spreading behaviors of water microdroplets are investigated experimentally. Microdroplets with diameter less than 50 μm are ejected from a piezoelectric printhead with varying Weber number. The final wetting state of an impinging droplet can be estimated by comparing the wetting pressures of the droplet and the capillary pressure of the textured surface. The wetting behaviors obtained experimentally are well agreed with the estimated results. In addition, the transition from bouncing to non-bouncing behaviors in the partially penetrated wetting state is observed. This transition implies the possibility of withdrawal of the penetrated liquid from the inter-pillar space. The maximum spreading factors (ratio of the maximum spreading diameter to the initial diameter) of the impinging droplets have close correlation with the texture area fraction of the surfaces. This work was supported by Creative Research Initiatives (Diagnosis of Biofluid Flow Phenomena and Biomimic Research) of MEST/KOSEF.

Spreading dynamics of a SIQRS epidemic model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Wang, Yuanmei; Guan, Zhi-Hong

2014-03-01

In order to investigate the influence of heterogeneity of the underlying networks and quarantine strategy on epidemic spreading, a SIQRS epidemic model on the scale-free networks is presented. Using the mean field theory the spreading dynamics of the virus is analyzed. The spreading critical threshold and equilibria are derived. Theoretical results indicate that the critical threshold value is significantly dependent on the topology of the underlying networks and quarantine rate. The existence of equilibria is determined by threshold value. The stability of disease-free equilibrium and the permanence of the disease are proved. Numerical simulations confirmed the analytical results.

Hysteresis loop of nonperiodic outbreaks of recurrent epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hengcong; Zheng, Muhua; Wu, Dayu; Wang, Zhenhua; Liu, Jinming; Liu, Zonghua

2016-12-01

Most of the studies on epidemics so far have focused on the growing phase, such as how an epidemic spreads and what are the conditions for an epidemic to break out in a variety of cases. However, we discover from real data that on a large scale, the spread of an epidemic is in fact a recurrent event with distinctive growing and recovering phases, i.e., a hysteresis loop. We show here that the hysteresis loop can be reproduced in epidemic models provided that the infectious rate is adiabatically increased or decreased before the system reaches its stationary state. Two ways to the hysteresis loop are revealed, which is helpful in understanding the mechanics of infections in real evolution. Moreover, a theoretical analysis is presented to explain the mechanism of the hysteresis loop.

Recovering the fine structures in solar images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karovska, Margarita; Habbal, S. R.; Golub, L.; Deluca, E.; Hudson, Hugh S.

1994-01-01

Several examples of the capability of the blind iterative deconvolution (BID) technique to recover the real point spread function, when limited a priori information is available about its characteristics. To demonstrate the potential of image post-processing for probing the fine scale and temporal variability of the solar atmosphere, the BID technique is applied to different samples of solar observations from space. The BID technique was originally proposed for correction of the effects of atmospheric turbulence on optical images. The processed images provide a detailed view of the spatial structure of the solar atmosphere at different heights in regions with different large-scale magnetic field structures.

Thin Disk Accretion in the Magnetically-Arrested State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avara, Mark J.; McKinney, Jonathan; Reynolds, Christopher S.

2016-01-01

Shakura-Sunyaev thin disk theory is fundamental to black hole astrophysics. Though applications of the theory are wide-spread and powerful tools for explaining observations, such as Soltan's argument using quasar power, broadened iron line measurements, continuum fitting, and recently reverberation mapping, a significant large-scale magnetic field causes substantial deviations from standard thin disk behavior. We have used fully 3D general relativistic MHD simulations with cooling to explore the thin (H/R~0.1) magnetically arrested disk (MAD) state and quantify these deviations. This work demonstrates that accumulation of large-scale magnetic flux into the MAD state is possible, and then extends prior numerical studies of thicker disks, allowing us to measure how jet power scales with the disk state, providing a natural explanation of phenomena like jet quenching in the high-soft state of X-ray binaries. We have also simulated thin MAD disks with a misaligned black hole spin axis in order to understand further deviations from thin disk theory that may significantly affect observations.

Toe spreading ability in men with chronic pelvic pain syndrome

PubMed Central

Yilmaz, Ugur; Rothman, Ivan; Ciol, Marcia A; Yang, Claire C; Berger, Richard E

2005-01-01

Background We examined toe-spreading ability in subjects with chronic pelvic pain syndrome (CPPS) to test the hypothesis that subjects with CPPS could have deficiencies in lower extremity functions innervated by sacral spinal roots. Methods Seventy two subjects with CPPS and 98 volunteer controls were examined as part of a larger study on CPPS. All the subjects underwent a detailed urologic and neurological examination including a toe-spreading examination with a quantitative scoring system. We compared the groups in terms of ability of toe-spreading as either "complete" (all toes spreading) or "incomplete" (at least one interdigital space not spreading) and also by comparing the number of interdigital spaces. For CPPS subjects only, we also analyzed the variation of the National Institutes of Health Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI) scales by toe-spreading categories. Results CPPS subjects were less often able to spread all toes than subjects without CPPS (p = 0.005). None of the NIH-CPSI sub-scales (pain, urinary symptoms, and quality of life), nor the total score showed an association with toe spreading ability. Conclusion We found toe spreading to be diminished in subjects with CPPS. We hypothesize that incomplete toe spreading in subjects with CPPS may be related to subtle deficits involving the most caudal part of the spinal segments. PMID:15949041

Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui

2016-12-01

Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.

Longitudinal Loading and Nutrient Compositional Gradients in an Agriculturally Managed Watershed in West-Central Wisconsin

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-09-01

i.e., fertilizer and manure subsidies ). Nitrogen. Similar to total P, flow-weighted mean total N concentrations were not significantly different at...often used as a soil nutrient subsidy on corn and is also spread on hayfields after cutting, partly as a means of reducing manure surplus...James, W. F., Kennedy, R. H., and Gaugush, R F. (1990). “ Effects of large-scale metalimnetic migration events of phosphorus dynamics in a north

Planetary Accretion, Oxygen Isotopes and the Central Limit Theorem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nuth, Joseph A., III; Hill, Hugh G. M.; Vondrak, Richard R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The accumulation of presolar dust into increasingly larger aggregates (CAIs and Chondrules, Asteroids, Planets) should result in a very drastic reduction in the numerical spread in oxygen isotopic composition between bodies of similar size, in accord with the Central Limit Theorem. Observed variations in oxygen isotopic composition are many orders of magnitude larger than would be predicted by a simple, random accumulation model that begins in a well-mixed nebula - no matter which size-scale objects are used as the beginning or end points of the calculation. This discrepancy implies either that some as yet unspecified process acted on the solids in the Solar Nebula to increase the spread in oxygen isotopic composition during each and every stage of accumulation or that the nebula was heterogeneous and maintained this heterogeneity throughout most of nebular history. Large-scale nebular heterogeneity would have significant consequences for many areas of cosmochemistry, including the application of some well-known isotopic systems to the dating of nebular events or the prediction of bulk compositions of planetary bodies on the basis of a uniform cosmic abundance.

Morphology of oceanic ridges in spreading colloidal suspensions: Influence of spreading rate and lithospheric thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibrant, A.; Davaille, A.; Mittelstaedt, E. L.

2016-12-01

Oceanic ridges exhibit significant changes in their structural, morphological, and volcanic characteristics with changes in spreading velocity. However, separating the role of correlated affects such as spreading rate and lithospheric thickness on the segmentation of the ridge axis is difficult with only field data. The goal of this study is (a) to conduct properly scaled laboratory simulations of oceanic ridges, and (b) to investigate how the morphology and geometry of spreading-normal oceanic ridges vary separately with extension rate and lithospheric thickness. We present a series of analogue experiments using colloidal silica dispersions as an Earth analogue. Saline water solutions placed in contact with these fluids, cause formation of a skin through salt diffusion, whose rheology evolves from purely viscous to elastic and brittle with increasing salinity. Applying a fixed spreading rate to this pre-formed, brittle plate resulting in cracks, faults and axial ridge structures. Lithospheric (skin) thickness at a given extension rate is varied by changing salinity of the surface water layer. With increasing spreading rate, we observe several regimes: (1) at the slowest spreading rates, the spreading axis is composed of several segments separated by non-transform offsets and has a fault-bounded, deep, U-shaped axial valley. The axis has a large sinuosity, rough topography, and jumps repeatedly. (2) At intermediate spreading rates, the spreading axis shows low sinuosity, overlapping spreading centers (OSC) , a smooth axial morphology, and very few to no jumps. The axial valley is shallow and shows a V-shape morphology. The OSCs have a ratio of length to width of 3 to 1. (3) At faster spreading rates, the axis is continuous and presents an axial high topography. (4) At the fastest spreading rates tested, the spreading axis is again segmented. Each segment is offset by well developed transform faults and the axis has a sinuosity comparable to those of regimes 2 and 3. Rotating and growing microplates are also observed in regimes 3 and 4. For the first time, we are able to independently control spreading rate, lithospheric thickness, and mechanical properties of a simulated ridge axis in the laboratory. We present results of these experiments and discuss the implications for oceanic ridges on Earth.

The cultural evolution of prosocial religions.

PubMed

Norenzayan, Ara; Shariff, Azim F; Gervais, Will M; Willard, Aiyana K; McNamara, Rita A; Slingerland, Edward; Henrich, Joseph

2016-01-01

We develop a cultural evolutionary theory of the origins of prosocial religions and apply it to resolve two puzzles in human psychology and cultural history: (1) the rise of large-scale cooperation among strangers and, simultaneously, (2) the spread of prosocial religions in the last 10-12 millennia. We argue that these two developments were importantly linked and mutually energizing. We explain how a package of culturally evolved religious beliefs and practices characterized by increasingly potent, moralizing, supernatural agents, credible displays of faith, and other psychologically active elements conducive to social solidarity promoted high fertility rates and large-scale cooperation with co-religionists, often contributing to success in intergroup competition and conflict. In turn, prosocial religious beliefs and practices spread and aggregated as these successful groups expanded, or were copied by less successful groups. This synthesis is grounded in the idea that although religious beliefs and practices originally arose as nonadaptive by-products of innate cognitive functions, particular cultural variants were then selected for their prosocial effects in a long-term, cultural evolutionary process. This framework (1) reconciles key aspects of the adaptationist and by-product approaches to the origins of religion, (2) explains a variety of empirical observations that have not received adequate attention, and (3) generates novel predictions. Converging lines of evidence drawn from diverse disciplines provide empirical support while at the same time encouraging new research directions and opening up new questions for exploration and debate.

Large-Scale Mass Spectrometry Imaging Investigation of Consequences of Cortical Spreading Depression in a Transgenic Mouse Model of Migraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carreira, Ricardo J.; Shyti, Reinald; Balluff, Benjamin; Abdelmoula, Walid M.; van Heiningen, Sandra H.; van Zeijl, Rene J.; Dijkstra, Jouke; Ferrari, Michel D.; Tolner, Else A.; McDonnell, Liam A.; van den Maagdenberg, Arn M. J. M.

2015-06-01

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) is the electrophysiological correlate of migraine aura. Transgenic mice carrying the R192Q missense mutation in the Cacna1a gene, which in patients causes familial hemiplegic migraine type 1 (FHM1), exhibit increased propensity to CSD. Herein, mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) was applied for the first time to an animal cohort of transgenic and wild type mice to study the biomolecular changes following CSD in the brain. Ninety-six coronal brain sections from 32 mice were analyzed by MALDI-MSI. All MSI datasets were registered to the Allen Brain Atlas reference atlas of the mouse brain so that the molecular signatures of distinct brain regions could be compared. A number of metabolites and peptides showed substantial changes in the brain associated with CSD. Among those, different mass spectral features showed significant ( t-test, P < 0.05) changes in the cortex, 146 and 377 Da, and in the thalamus, 1820 and 1834 Da, of the CSD-affected hemisphere of FHM1 R192Q mice. Our findings reveal CSD- and genotype-specific molecular changes in the brain of FHM1 transgenic mice that may further our understanding about the role of CSD in migraine pathophysiology. The results also demonstrate the utility of aligning MSI datasets to a common reference atlas for large-scale MSI investigations.

Prediction of Time Response of Electrowetting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seung Jun; Hong, Jiwoo; Kang, Kwan Hyoung

2009-11-01

It is very important to predict the time response of electrowetting-based devices, such as liquid lenses, reflective displays, and optical switches. We investigated the time response of electrowetting, based on an analytical and a numerical method, to find out characteristic scales and a scaling law for the switching time. For this, spreading process of a sessile droplet was analyzed based on the domain perturbation method. First, we considered the case of weakly viscous fluids. The analytical result for the spreading process was compared with experimental results, which showed very good agreement in overall time response. It was shown that the overall dynamics is governed by P2 shape mode. We derived characteristic scales combining the droplet volume, density, and surface tension. The overall dynamic process was scaled quite well by the scales. A scaling law was derived from the analytical solution and was verified experimentally. We also suggest a scaling law for highly viscous liquids, based on results of numerical analysis for the electrowetting-actuated spreading process.

Large-scale Individual-based Models of Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadau, Kai; Germann, Timothy; Longini, Ira; Macken, Catherine

2007-03-01

We have developed a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million people, to assess the likely effectiveness of various potential intervention strategies including antiviral agents, vaccines, and modified social mobility (including school closure and travel restrictions) [1]. The heterogeneous population structure and mobility is based on available Census and Department of Transportation data where available. Our simulations demonstrate that, in a highly mobile population, restricting travel after an outbreak is detected is likely to delay slightly the time course of the outbreak without impacting the eventual number ill. For large basic reproductive numbers R0, we predict that multiple strategies in combination (involving both social and medical interventions) will be required to achieve a substantial reduction in illness rates. [1] T. C. Germann, K. Kadau, I. M. Longini, and C. A. Macken, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA) 103, 5935-5940 (2006).

Population size effects in evolutionary dynamics on neutral networks and toy landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumedha; Martin, Olivier C.; Peliti, Luca

2007-05-01

We study the dynamics of a population subject to selective pressures, evolving either on RNA neutral networks or on toy fitness landscapes. We discuss the spread and the neutrality of the population in the steady state. Different limits arise depending on whether selection or random drift is dominant. In the presence of strong drift we show that the observables depend mainly on Mμ, M being the population size and μ the mutation rate, while corrections to this scaling go as 1/M: such corrections can be quite large in the presence of selection if there are barriers in the fitness landscape. Also we find that the convergence to the large-Mμ limit is linear in 1/Mμ. Finally we introduce a protocol that minimizes drift; then observables scale like 1/M rather than 1/(Mμ), allowing one to determine the large-M limit more quickly when μ is small; furthermore the genotypic diversity increases from O(lnM) to O(M).

Traffic-driven epidemic spreading on scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Bing-Hong

2016-04-01

We study the traffic-driven epidemic spreading on scale-free networks with tunable degree distribution. The heterogeneity of networks is controlled by the exponent γ of power-law degree distribution. It is found that the epidemic threshold is minimized at about γ=2.2. Moreover, we find that nodes with larger algorithmic betweenness are more likely to be infected. We expect our work to provide new insights in to the effect of network structures on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

Spreading dynamics of 2D dipolar Langmuir monolayer phases.

PubMed

Heinig, P; Wurlitzer, S; Fischer, Th M

2004-07-01

We study the spreading of a liquid 2D dipolar droplet in a Langmuir monolayer. Interfacial tensions (line tensions) and microscopic contact angles depend on the scale on which they are probed and obey a scaling law. Assuming rapid equilibration of the microscopic contact angle and ideal slippage of the 2D solid/liquid and solid/gas boundary, the driving force of spreading is merely expressed by the shape-dependent long-range interaction integrals. We obtain good agreement between experiment and numerical simulations using this theory.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.

Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity ( ω 500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strongmore » large-scale ascent ( ω 500  <  −25 hPa day −1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day −1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

Landscape epidemiology and control of pathogens with cryptic and long-distance dispersal: sudden oak death in northern Californian forests.

PubMed

Filipe, João A N; Cobb, Richard C; Meentemeyer, Ross K; Lee, Christopher A; Valachovic, Yana S; Cook, Alex R; Rizzo, David M; Gilligan, Christopher A

2012-01-01

Exotic pathogens and pests threaten ecosystem service, biodiversity, and crop security globally. If an invasive agent can disperse asymptomatically over long distances, multiple spatial and temporal scales interplay, making identification of effective strategies to regulate, monitor, and control disease extremely difficult. The management of outbreaks is also challenged by limited data on the actual area infested and the dynamics of spatial spread, due to financial, technological, or social constraints. We examine principles of landscape epidemiology important in designing policy to prevent or slow invasion by such organisms, and use Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death, to illustrate how shortfalls in their understanding can render management applications inappropriate. This pathogen has invaded forests in coastal California, USA, and an isolated but fast-growing epidemic focus in northern California (Humboldt County) has the potential for extensive spread. The risk of spread is enhanced by the pathogen's generalist nature and survival. Additionally, the extent of cryptic infection is unknown due to limited surveying resources and access to private land. Here, we use an epidemiological model for transmission in heterogeneous landscapes and Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inference to estimate dispersal and life-cycle parameters of P. ramorum and forecast the distribution of infection and speed of the epidemic front in Humboldt County. We assess the viability of management options for containing the pathogen's northern spread and local impacts. Implementing a stand-alone host-free "barrier" had limited efficacy due to long-distance dispersal, but combining curative with preventive treatments ahead of the front reduced local damage and contained spread. While the large size of this focus makes effective control expensive, early synchronous treatment in newly-identified disease foci should be more cost-effective. We show how the successful management of forest ecosystems depends on estimating the spatial scales of invasion and treatment of pathogens and pests with cryptic long-distance dispersal. © 2012 Filipe et al.

New Low-mass Accretors in the Scorpius-Centaurus OB Association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Simon J.; Lawson, Warrick A.; Bento, Joao

2016-01-01

We describe the serendipitous discovery of two new lithium-rich M5 members of the Scorpius-Centaurus OB Association (Sco-Cen). Both stars exhibit large 12 and 22 μm excesses and strong, variable Hα emission which we attribute to accretion from circumstellar discs. Such stars are thought to be incredibly rare at the ~16 Myr median age of much of Sco-Cen. The serendipitous discovery of two accreting stars hosting large quantities of circumstellar material may be indicative of a sizeable age spread in Sco-Cen, or further evidence that disc dispersal and planet formation time-scales are longer around lower-mass stars.

Disease spreading in real-life networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros; Argyrakis, Panos

2002-08-01

In recent years the scientific community has shown a vivid interest in the network structure and dynamics of real-life organized systems. Many such systems, covering an extremely wide range of applications, have been recently shown to exhibit scale-free character in their connectivity distribution, meaning that they obey a power law. Modeling of epidemics on lattices and small-world networks suffers from the presence of a critical infection threshold, above which the entire population is infected. For scale-free networks, the original assumption was that the formation of a giant cluster would lead to an epidemic spreading in the same way as in simpler networks. Here we show that modeling epidemics on a scale-free network can greatly improve the predictions on the rate and efficiency of spreading, as compared to lattice models and small-world networks. We also show that the dynamics of a disease are greatly influenced by the underlying population structure. The exact same model can describe a plethora of networks, such as social networks, virus spreading in the Web, rumor spreading, signal transmission etc.

MASW on the standard seismic prospective scale using full spread recording

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Białas, Sebastian; Majdański, Mariusz; Trzeciak, Maciej; Gałczyński, Edward; Maksym, Andrzej

2015-04-01

The Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) is one of seismic survey methods that use the dispersion curve of surface waves in order to describe the stiffness of the surface. Is is used mainly for geotechnical engineering scale with total length of spread between 5 - 450 m and spread offset between 1 - 100 m, the hummer is the seismic source on this surveys. The standard procedure of MASW survey is: data acquisition, dispersion analysis and inversion of extracting dispersion curve to obtain the closest theoretical curve. The final result includes share-wave velocity (Vs) values at different depth along the surveyed lines. The main goal of this work is to expand this engineering method to the bigger scale with the length of standard prospecting spread of 20 km using 4.5 Hz version of vertical component geophones. The standard vibroseis and explosive method are used as the seismic source. The acquisition were conducted on the full spread all the time during each single shoot. The seismic data acquisition used for this analysis were carried out on the Braniewo 2014 project in north of Poland. The results achieved during standard MASW procedure says that this method can be used on much bigger scale as well. The different methodology of this analysis requires only much stronger seismic source.

Hydrothermal venting along Earth's fastest spreading center: East Pacific Rise, 27.5°-32.3°

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, E. T.; Hey, R. N.; Lupton, J. E.; Resing, J. A.; Feely, R. A.; Gharib, J. J.; Massoth, G. J.; Sansone, F. J.; Kleinrock, M.; Martinez, F.; Naar, D. F.; Rodrigo, C.; Bohnenstiehl, D.; Pardee, D.

2002-07-01

During March/April 1998 we conducted detailed mapping and sampling of hydrothermal plumes along six segments of Earth's fasting spreading mid-ocean ridge, 27.5°-32.3°S on the East Pacific Rise. We compared the distribution and chemistry of hydrothermal plumes to geological indicators of long-term (spreading rate) and moderate-term (ridge inflation) variations in magmatic budget. In this large-offset, propagating rift setting, these geological indices span virtually the entire range found along fast spreading ridges worldwide. Hydrothermal plumes overlaid ~60% of the length of superfast (>130 km/Myr) spreading axis surveyed and defined at least 14 separate vent fields. We observed no plumes over the slower spreading propagating segments. Finer-scale variations in the magmatic budget also correlated with hydrothermal activity, as the location of the five most intense plumes corresponded to subsegment peaks in ridge inflation. Along the entire ridge crest, the more inflated a ridge location the more likely it was to be overlain by a hydrothermal plume. Plume chemistry mostly reflected discharge from mature vent fields apparently unperturbed by magmatic activity within the last few years. Plume samples with high volatile/metal ratios, generally indicating recent seafloor volcanism, were scarce. Along-axis trends in both volatile (3He; CH4; ΔpH, a proxy for CO2; and particulate S) and nonvolatile (Fe, Mn) species showed a first-order agreement with the trend of ridge inflation. Nevertheless, a broad correspondence between the concentration of volatile species in plumes and geological proxies of magma supply identifies a pervasive magmatic imprint on this superfast spreading group of ridge segments.

Large-scale recrystallization of the S-layer of Bacillus coagulans E38-66 at the air/water interface and on lipid films.

PubMed Central

Pum, D; Weinhandl, M; Hödl, C; Sleytr, U B

1993-01-01

S-layer protein isolated from Bacillus coagulans E38-66 could be recrystallized into large-scale coherent monolayers at an air/water interface and on phospholipid films spread on a Langmuir-Blodgett trough. Because of the asymmetry in the physiochemical surface properties of the S-layer protein, the subunits were associated with their more hydrophobic outer face with the air/water interface and oriented with their negatively charged inner face to the zwitterionic head groups of the dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine and dipalmitoylphosphatidylethanolamine (DPPE) monolayer films. The dynamic crystal growth at both types of interfaces was first initiated at several distant nucleation points. The individual monocrystalline areas grew isotropically in all directions until the front edge of neighboring crystals was met. The recrystallized S-layer protein and the S-layer-DPPE layer could be chemically cross-linked from the subphase with glutaraldehyde. Images PMID:8478338

Mother Nature versus human nature: public compliance with evacuation and quarantine.

PubMed

Manuell, Mary-Elise; Cukor, Jeffrey

2011-04-01

Effectively controlling the spread of contagious illnesses has become a critical focus of disaster planning. It is likely that quarantine will be a key part of the overall public health strategy utilised during a pandemic, an act of bioterrorism or other emergencies involving contagious agents. While the United States lacks recent experience of large-scale quarantines, it has considerable accumulated experience of large-scale evacuations. Risk perception, life circumstance, work-related issues, and the opinions of influential family, friends and credible public spokespersons all play a role in determining compliance with an evacuation order. Although the comparison is not reported elsewhere to our knowledge, this review of the principal factors affecting compliance with evacuations demonstrates many similarities with those likely to occur during a quarantine. Accurate identification and understanding of barriers to compliance allows for improved planning to protect the public more effectively. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Large-scale oil-in-ice experiment in the Barents Sea: monitoring of oil in water and MetOcean interactions.

PubMed

Faksness, Liv-Guri; Brandvik, Per Johan; Daae, Ragnhild L; Leirvik, Frode; Børseth, Jan Fredrik

2011-05-01

A large-scale field experiment took place in the marginal ice zone in the Barents Sea in May 2009. Fresh oil (7000 L) was released uncontained between the ice floes to study oil weathering and spreading in ice and surface water. A detailed monitoring of oil-in-water and ice interactions was performed throughout the six-day experiment. In addition, meteorological and oceanographic data were recorded for monitoring of the wind speed and direction, air temperature, currents and ice floe movements. The monitoring showed low concentrations of dissolved hydrocarbons and the predicted acute toxicity indicated that the acute toxicity was low. The ice field drifted nearly 80 km during the experimental period, and although the oil drifted with the ice, it remained contained between the ice floes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model of large pool fires.

PubMed

Fay, J A

2006-08-21

A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables.

Tectonics of the Easter plate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engeln, J. F.; Stein, S.

1984-01-01

A new model for the Easter plate is presented in which rift propagation has resulted in the formation of a rigid plate between the propagating and dying ridges. The distribution of earthquakes, eleven new focal mechanisms, and existing bathymetric and magnetic data are used to describe the tectonics of this area. Both the Easter-Nazca and Easter-Pacific Euler poles are sufficiently close to the Easter plate to cause rapid changes in rates and directions of motion along the boundaries. The east and west boundaries are propagating and dying ridges; the southwest boundary is a slow-spreading ridge and the northern boundary is a complex zone of convergent and transform motion. The Easter plate may reflect the tectonics of rift propagation on a large scale, where rigid plate tectonics requires boundary reorientation. Simple schematic models to illustrate the general features and processes which occur at plates resulting from large-scale rift propagation are used.

On wildfire complexity, simple models and environmental templates for fire size distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, M. M.; Bradstock, R.; Gill, M.; Sadler, R.

2012-12-01

Vegetation fires affect some 370 Mha annually. At global and continental scales, fire activity follows predictable spatiotemporal patterns driven by gradients and seasonal fluctuations of primary productivity and evaporative demand that set constraints for fuel accumulation rates and fuel dryness, two key ingredients of fire. At regional scales, fires are also known to affect some landscapes more than others and within landscapes to occur preferentially in some sectors (e.g. wind-swept ridges) and rarely in others (e.g. wet gullies). Another common observation is that small fires occur relatively frequent yet collectively burn far less country than relatively infrequent large fires. These patterns of fire activity are well known to management agencies and consistent with their (informal) models of how the basic drivers and constraints of fire (i.e. fuels, ignitions, weather) vary in time and space across the landscape. The statistical behaviour of these landscape fire patterns has excited the (academic) research community by showing some consistency with that of complex dynamical systems poised at a phase transition. The common finding that the frequency-size distributions of actual fires follow power laws that resemble those produced by simple cellular models from statistical mechanics has been interpreted as evidence that flammable landscapes operate as self-organising systems with scale invariant fire size distributions emerging 'spontaneously' from simple rules of contagious fire spread and a strong feedback between fires and fuel patterns. In this paper we argue that the resemblance of simulated and actual fire size distributions is an example of equifinality, that is fires in model landscapes and actual landscapes may show similar statistical behaviour but this is reached by qualitatively different pathways or controlling mechanisms. We support this claim with two key findings regarding simulated fire spread mechanisms and fire-fuel feedbacks. Firstly, we demonstrate that the power law behaviour of fire size distributions in the widely used Drossel and Schwabl (1992) Forest Fire Model (FFM) is strictly conditional on simulating fire spread as a cell-to-cell contagion over a fixed distance; the invariant scaling of fire sizes breaks down under the slightest variation in that distance, suggesting that pattern formation in the FFM is irreconcilable with the reality of disparate rates and modes of fire spread observed in the field. Secondly, we review field evidence showing that fuel age effects on the probability of fire spread, a key assumption in simulation models like the FFM, do not generally apply across flammable environments. Finally, we explore alternative explanations for the formation of scale invariant fire sizes in real landscapes. Using observations from southern Australian forest regions we demonstrate that the spatiotemporal patterns of fuel dryness and magnitudes of fire driving weather events set strong environmental templates for regional fire size distributions.

Characterization of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated from Nepalese and Indian outbreak patients in early 2015.

PubMed

Nakamura, Kazuya; Shirakura, Masayuki; Fujisaki, Seiichiro; Kishida, Noriko; Burke, David F; Smith, Derek J; Kuwahara, Tomoko; Takashita, Emi; Takayama, Ikuyo; Nakauchi, Mina; Chadha, Mandeep; Potdar, Varsha; Bhushan, Arvind; Upadhyay, Bishnu Prasad; Shakya, Geeta; Odagiri, Takato; Kageyama, Tsutomu; Watanabe, Shinji

2017-09-01

We characterized influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 isolates from large-scale outbreaks that occurred in Nepal and India in early 2015. Although no specific viral features, which may have caused the outbreaks, were identified, an S84N substitution in hemagglutinin was frequently observed. Chronological phylogenetic analysis revealed that these Nepalese and Indian viruses possessing the S84N substitution constitute potential ancestors of the novel genetic subclade 6B.1 virus that spread globally in the following (2015/16) influenza season. Thus, active surveillance of circulating influenza viruses in the Southern Asia region, including Nepal and India, would be beneficial for detecting novel variant viruses prior to their worldwide spread. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Intermittence for humans spreading 45,000 years ago: from Eurasia to the Americas.

PubMed

Flores, J C; Hopp, Renato

2013-10-01

From northeastern Eurasia to the Americas, a three-stage spread of modern humans is considered through large-scale intermittence (exploitation/relocation). Conceptually, this work supports intermittence as a real strategy for colonization of new habitats. For the first stage, northeastern Eurasia travel, we adapt our model to archaeological dates determining the diffusion coefficient (exploitation phase) as D = 299.44 km2/yr and the velocity parameter (relocation phase) as vo = 4.8944 km/yr. The relative phase weight (✧0.46) between both kinds of motions is consistent with a moderate biological population rate (r΄ ✧ 0.0046/yr). The second stage is related to population fragmentation. The last stage, reaching Alaska, corresponds essentially to relocation (vo ✧ 0.75 km/yr). Copyright © 2014 Wayne State University Press, Detroit, Michigan 48201-1309.

Marine Magnetic Anomalies and the Reconstruction of the World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heirtzler, James R.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Until the middle of the 20th century little was known about magnetic anomalies in the oceans. Then it was discovered that there are relatively large anomalies in most of the oceans and they were unrelated to any geological structure known at that time. In the early 1950's large anomalies had been found over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and linear anomalies over the eastern continental shelf of North America and, shortly after that, off the west coast. A survey of the ridge south of Iceland showed that the anomalies were linear, parallel to the ridge axis, and symmetrical about the axis. Using the theory that the anomalies were caused by geomagnetic field reversals and seafloor spreading it was possible to greatly extend the time scale of geomagnetic reversals, to determine the velocity of seafloor spreading and estimate the time of opening of the North Atlantic. Lamont had a world-wide collection of marine magnetic profiles. These were used, systematically, to determine the positions of most of the land masses of the world since the beginnings of the world's present oceans.

Role of buoyant flame dynamics in wildfire spread.

PubMed

Finney, Mark A; Cohen, Jack D; Forthofer, Jason M; McAllister, Sara S; Gollner, Michael J; Gorham, Daniel J; Saito, Kozo; Akafuah, Nelson K; Adam, Brittany A; English, Justin D

2015-08-11

Large wildfires of increasing frequency and severity threaten local populations and natural resources and contribute carbon emissions into the earth-climate system. Although wildfires have been researched and modeled for decades, no verifiable physical theory of spread is available to form the basis for the precise predictions needed to manage fires more effectively and reduce their environmental, economic, ecological, and climate impacts. Here, we report new experiments conducted at multiple scales that appear to reveal how wildfire spread derives from the tight coupling between flame dynamics induced by buoyancy and fine-particle response to convection. Convective cooling of the fine-sized fuel particles in wildland vegetation is observed to efficiently offset heating by thermal radiation until convective heating by contact with flames and hot gasses occurs. The structure and intermittency of flames that ignite fuel particles were found to correlate with instabilities induced by the strong buoyancy of the flame zone itself. Discovery that ignition in wildfires is critically dependent on nonsteady flame convection governed by buoyant and inertial interaction advances both theory and the physical basis for practical modeling.

Study of the influence of fuel load and slope on a fire spreading across a bed of pine needles by using oxygen consumption calorimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tihay, V.; Morandini, F.; Santoni, P. A.; Perez-Ramirez, Y.; Barboni, T.

2012-11-01

A set of experiments using a Large Scale Heat Release Rate Calorimeter was conducted to test the effects of slope and fuel load on the fire dynamics. Different parameters such as the geometry of the flame front, the rate of spread, the mass loss rate and the heat release rate were investigated. Increasing the fuel load or the slope modifies the fire behaviour. As expected, the flame length and the rate of spread increase when fuel load or slope increases. The heat release rate does not reach a quasi-steady state when the propagation takes place with a slope of 20° and a high fuel load. This is due to an increase of the length of the fire front leading to an increase of fuel consumed. These considerations have shown that the heat release can be estimated with the mass loss rate by considering the effective heat of combustion. This approach can be a good alternative to estimate accurately the fireline intensity when the measure of oxygen consumption is not possible.

Role of buoyant flame dynamics in wildfire spread

PubMed Central

Finney, Mark A.; Cohen, Jack D.; Forthofer, Jason M.; McAllister, Sara S.; Gollner, Michael J.; Gorham, Daniel J.; Saito, Kozo; Akafuah, Nelson K.; Adam, Brittany A.; English, Justin D.

2015-01-01

Large wildfires of increasing frequency and severity threaten local populations and natural resources and contribute carbon emissions into the earth-climate system. Although wildfires have been researched and modeled for decades, no verifiable physical theory of spread is available to form the basis for the precise predictions needed to manage fires more effectively and reduce their environmental, economic, ecological, and climate impacts. Here, we report new experiments conducted at multiple scales that appear to reveal how wildfire spread derives from the tight coupling between flame dynamics induced by buoyancy and fine-particle response to convection. Convective cooling of the fine-sized fuel particles in wildland vegetation is observed to efficiently offset heating by thermal radiation until convective heating by contact with flames and hot gasses occurs. The structure and intermittency of flames that ignite fuel particles were found to correlate with instabilities induced by the strong buoyancy of the flame zone itself. Discovery that ignition in wildfires is critically dependent on nonsteady flame convection governed by buoyant and inertial interaction advances both theory and the physical basis for practical modeling. PMID:26183227

Modeling fire-induced smoke spread and carbon monoxide transportation in a long channel: Fire Dynamics Simulator comparisons with measured data.

PubMed

Hu, L H; Fong, N K; Yang, L Z; Chow, W K; Li, Y Z; Huo, R

2007-02-09

Smoke and toxic gases, such as carbon monoxide, are the most fatal factors in fires. This paper models fire-induced smoke spread and carbon monoxide transportation in an 88m long channel by Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) with large eddy simulation (LES). FDS is now a well-founded fire dynamics computational fluid dynamic (CFD) program, which was developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Two full scale experiments with fire sizes of 0.75 and 1.6MW were conducted in this channel to validate the program. The spread of the fire-induced smoke flow together with the smoke temperature distribution along the channel, and the carbon monoxide concentration at an assigned position were measured. The FDS simulation results were compared with experimental data with fairly good agreement demonstrated. The validation work is then extended to numerically study the carbon monoxide concentration distribution, both vertically and longitudinally, in this long channel. Results showed that carbon monoxide concentration increase linearly with the height above the floor and decreases exponentially with the distance away from the fire source.

Modeling Human Behavior at a Large Scale

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

update from his phone. He writes that he has a fever and feels awful. Since Joe has a public Twitter profile, we know who some of his friends are...is a vector of a dangerous disease, i.e., a “ Typhoid Mary”? What is the interaction between friendship, location, and co-location in the spread of...some rest. I have nausea, headache, is tired, freezing & now have I got fever . Good Night! :-* It hurts to breathe, swallow, cough or yawn. I must be

Creation of an anti-imaging system using binary optics.

PubMed

Wang, Haifeng; Lin, Jian; Zhang, Dawei; Wang, Yang; Gu, Min; Urbach, H P; Gan, Fuxi; Zhuang, Songlin

2016-09-13

We present a concealing method in which an anti-point spread function (APSF) is generated using binary optics, which produces a large-scale dark area in the focal region that can hide any object located within it. This result is achieved by generating two identical PSFs of opposite signs, one consisting of positive electromagnetic waves from the zero-phase region of the binary optical element and the other consisting of negative electromagnetic waves from the pi-phase region of the binary optical element.

Creation of an anti-imaging system using binary optics

PubMed Central

Wang, Haifeng; Lin, Jian; Zhang, Dawei; Wang, Yang; Gu, Min; Urbach, H. P.; Gan, Fuxi; Zhuang, Songlin

2016-01-01

We present a concealing method in which an anti-point spread function (APSF) is generated using binary optics, which produces a large-scale dark area in the focal region that can hide any object located within it. This result is achieved by generating two identical PSFs of opposite signs, one consisting of positive electromagnetic waves from the zero-phase region of the binary optical element and the other consisting of negative electromagnetic waves from the pi-phase region of the binary optical element. PMID:27620068

Initial Results of the Spread F Experiment (SpreadFEx): Overview and Evidence of Possible Gravity Wave Excitation of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritts, D. C.

2007-05-01

The Spread F Experiment (SpreadFEx) was performed in Brazil by Brazilian and U.S. researchers during two ~20- day periods extending from September to November 2005. We employed extensive ground-based and space- based observations of gravity waves, plasma structures, electron densities, and mean atmospheric and ionospheric conditions using airglow, digisonde, VHF and meteor radar, balloon, GPS and satellite instrumentation at multiple sites in Brazil and with GUVI aboard the TIMED satellite. These measurements focused on deep convection, gravity waves, and plasma bubble structures. This comprehensive data set has provided the first promising indications of the specific roles of gravity waves arising from deep convection and other sources in contributing to the seeding of equatorial spread F and plasma bubbles extending to high altitudes. This talk will summarize the campaign results related to possible neutral atmosphere seeding of spread F and plasma bubbles during these observations. Specifically, our measurements have revealed significant neutral density (and related wind and temperature) perturbations extending from ~80 km well into the thermosphere and ionosphere. Many of these appear to arise from deep convection over the Amazon basin. Others occurring at larger scales under magnetically-disturbed conditions may have auroral or other higher-latitude sources. Both appear to lead, on occasion, to sufficiently large perturbations of the bottomside F layer to trigger plasma bubbles extending to much higher altitudes thereafter. Upon completion of our analyses, we believe that these observations will yield the first persuasive evidence of the role of neutral atmosphere gravity waves in the seeding of equatorial plasma bubbles.

Observation-based estimate of the Fukushima radionuclide in the North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Sachiko; Jayne, Steven; Macdonald, Alison; Buesseler, Ken; Rypina, Irina

2014-05-01

Contaminated waters from Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) were discharged directly into the North Pacific Ocean in March 2011. Coastal current system in this region and time scale of the water exchange with the open ocean is not well understood, however both observational evidence and numerical model simulation results indicate relatively rapid advection of contaminants eastward into the highly energetic mixed water region in the confluence of the Kuroshio and Oyashio. Surface drifters deployed near the FNPP in early summer 2011 show trajectories crossing the North Pacific generally following the large scale ocean circulation after one year. Previously obtained cesium (Cs) samples from multiple cruises near FNPP and off shore region between 2011 and 2013 are collected and evaluated to diagnose the propagating Cs signal crossing North Pacific Ocean. In this presentation, we use radionuclides of Fukushima origin as a tracer to understand the North Pacific circulation and mixing process after two years of release. Large numbers of the observation are repeatedly took place near shore where Cs shows still relatively higher about 10-30 Bq/m3 in 2013. Temperature-salinity (T-S) properties for the available hydrographic data indicate that the majority of the samples were obtained in the region where the water is highly influenced by the warm-salty Kuroshio origin water. Depth profiles of 35N section in March-May 2013 cruise of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability and Carbon (CLIVAR) repeat Hydrography sections are examined to track the radionuclide penetration into the subsurface ocean and the subduction pathways along isopycnal surfaces. Available large drifter datasets that accumulated over decades of field work can guide us in estimating the spread of these radionuclides. By applying an innovative statistical analysis to the drifter data, we investigate the spreading of radionuclides in the Pacific Ocean over 5-year time scales.

Smouldering Subsurface Fires in the Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rein, Guillermo

2010-05-01

Smouldering fires, the slow, low-temperature, flameless form of combustion, are an important phenomena in the Earth system. These fires propagate slowly through organic layers of the forest ground and are responsible for 50% or more of the total biomass consumed during wildfires. Only after the 2002 study of the 1997 extreme haze event in South-East Asia, the scientific community recognised the environmental and economic threats posed by subsurface fires. This was caused by the spread of vast biomass fires in Indonesia, burning below the surface for months during the El Niño climate event. It has been calculated that these fires released between 0.81 and 2.57 Gton of carbon gases (13-40% of global emissions). Large smouldering fires are rare events at the local scale but occur regularly at a global scale. Once ignited, they are particularly difficult to extinguish despite extensive rains or fire-fighting attempts and can persist for long periods of time (months, years) spreading over very extensive areas of forest and deep into the soil. Indeed, these are the oldest continuously burning fires on Earth. Earth scientists are interested in smouldering fires because they destroy large amounts of biomass and cause greater damage to the soil ecosystem than flaming fires do. Moreover, these fires cannot be detected with current satellite remote sensing technologies causing inconsistencies between emission inventories and model predictions. Organic soils sustain smouldering fire (hummus, duff, peat and coal) which total carbon pool exceeds that of the world's forests or the atmosphere. This have important implications for climate change. Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are resulting in unprecedented permafrost thaw that is leaving large soil carbon pools exposed to fires. Because the CO2 flux from peat fires has been measured to be about 3000 times larger that the natural degradation flux, permafrost thaw is a risk for greater carbon release by fire and subsequently influence carbon-climate feedbacks. This presentation will revise the current knowledge on smouldering fires in the Earth system regarding ignition, spread patterns and emissions. It will explain the key differences between shallow and deep fires, and flaming fires.

High Resolution Imaging of the Sun with CORONAS-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karovska, Margarita

1998-01-01

We applied several image restoration and enhancement techniques, to CORONAS-I images. We carried out the characterization of the Point Spread Function (PSF) using the unique capability of the Blind Iterative Deconvolution (BID) technique, which recovers the real PSF at a given location and time of observation, when limited a priori information is available on its characteristics. We also applied image enhancement technique to extract the small scale structure imbeded in bright large scale structures on the disk and on the limb. The results demonstrate the capability of the image post-processing to substantially increase the yield from the space observations by improving the resolution and reducing noise in the images.

Cost-effective control of plant disease when epidemiological knowledge is incomplete: modelling Bahia bark scaling of citrus.

PubMed

Cunniffe, Nik J; Laranjeira, Francisco F; Neri, Franco M; DeSimone, R Erik; Gilligan, Christopher A

2014-08-01

A spatially-explicit, stochastic model is developed for Bahia bark scaling, a threat to citrus production in north-eastern Brazil, and is used to assess epidemiological principles underlying the cost-effectiveness of disease control strategies. The model is fitted via Markov chain Monte Carlo with data augmentation to snapshots of disease spread derived from a previously-reported multi-year experiment. Goodness-of-fit tests strongly supported the fit of the model, even though the detailed etiology of the disease is unknown and was not explicitly included in the model. Key epidemiological parameters including the infection rate, incubation period and scale of dispersal are estimated from the spread data. This allows us to scale-up the experimental results to predict the effect of the level of initial inoculum on disease progression in a typically-sized citrus grove. The efficacies of two cultural control measures are assessed: altering the spacing of host plants, and roguing symptomatic trees. Reducing planting density can slow disease spread significantly if the distance between hosts is sufficiently large. However, low density groves have fewer plants per hectare. The optimum density of productive plants is therefore recovered at an intermediate host spacing. Roguing, even when detection of symptomatic plants is imperfect, can lead to very effective control. However, scouting for disease symptoms incurs a cost. We use the model to balance the cost of scouting against the number of plants lost to disease, and show how to determine a roguing schedule that optimises profit. The trade-offs underlying the two optima we identify-the optimal host spacing and the optimal roguing schedule-are applicable to many pathosystems. Our work demonstrates how a carefully parameterised mathematical model can be used to find these optima. It also illustrates how mathematical models can be used in even this most challenging of situations in which the underlying epidemiology is ill-understood.

Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climatic variation.

PubMed

Geoghegan, Jemma L; Saavedra, Aldo F; Duchêne, Sebastián; Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian; Holmes, Edward C

2018-01-01

The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus.

Population Movement and Virus Spreading: HEV Spreading in a Pilgrimage City, Mashhad in Northeast Iran; an Example.

PubMed

Ahmadi Ghezeldasht, Sanaz; Miri, Rahele; Hedayatimoghadam, Mohamadreza; Shamsian, Aliakbar; Bidkhori, Hamidreza; Fathimoghadam, Fahad; Rezaee, Seyyed Abdorrahim

2013-01-01

Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) infection is a significant public health concern and responsible for large outbreaks of acute hepatitis in poor sanitary and living conditions. To investigate the impact of population movements on virus spreading, a large-scale population-based survey was performed in a pilgrimage- tourism area, the great Mashhad, capital city of Khorasan province. A cross-sectional study was carried out among 1582 randomly selected individuals from general population of Mashhad, north east of Iran, between May to September 2009. Serum samples were tested for total anti-HEV antibody using a specific enzyme linked immunoassay (ELISA) kit. The prevalence of HEV infection was 14.2% (225/1582) with a maximum of 25.5 % (14/55) in densely populated areas. The highest prevalence was observed in visitant areas (≥ 20%) near the holly shrine with crowded hotels and inns. The differences between these areas and other districts were statistically significant (P < 0.001). The findings indicated that 13.2% (95/718) of males and 15.0% (130/864) of females were HEV positive; this difference is not significant. Seroprevalence increases with age rising , from 12.8% in subjects less than five years to 28.6% in individuals with more than 65 years old. Although, there were no meaningful differences between HEV seropositivity and socio-economic status, Illiterate individuals were significantly at higher risk for infection than educated persons (P < 0.001). These findings demonstrated that, high prevalence of HEV is related to populated district, which can reach to the highest rate in hotels and inns close to visitants. Traditional sanitation and water supplying systems are the second important factor for the virus transmission. Therefore, it can be concluded that such areas need efficient surveillance systems to prevent the spreading of infectious diseases.

Spread of beech bark disease in the eastern United States and its relationship to regional forest composition

Treesearch

Randall S. Morin; Andrew M. Liebhold; Patrick C. Tobin; Kurt W. Gottschalk; Eugene Luzader

2007-01-01

Beech bark disease (BBD) is an insect-fungus complex involving the beech scale insect (Cryptococcus fagisuga Lind.) and one of two canker fungi. Beech scale was introduced to Halifax, Nova Scotia around 1890, presumably with the fungus Neonectria coccinea var. faginata Lohm. The disease has subsequently spread...

Effects of maximum node degree on computer virus spreading in scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bamaarouf, O.; Ould Baba, A.; Lamzabi, S.; Rachadi, A.; Ez-Zahraouy, H.

2017-10-01

The increase of the use of the Internet networks favors the spread of viruses. In this paper, we studied the spread of viruses in the scale-free network with different topologies based on the Susceptible-Infected-External (SIE) model. It is found that the network structure influences the virus spreading. We have shown also that the nodes of high degree are more susceptible to infection than others. Furthermore, we have determined a critical maximum value of node degree (Kc), below which the network is more resistible and the computer virus cannot expand into the whole network. The influence of network size is also studied. We found that the network with low size is more effective to reduce the proportion of infected nodes.

A laboratory-scale comparison of rate of spread model predictions using chaparral fuel beds – preliminary results

Treesearch

D.R. Weise; E. Koo; X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam

2011-01-01

Observed fire spread rates from 240 laboratory fires in horizontally-oriented single-species live fuel beds were compared to predictions from various implementations and modifications of the Rothermel rate of spread model and a physical fire spread model developed by Pagni and Koo. Packing ratio of the laboratory fuel beds was generally greater than that observed in...

On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; ...

2016-03-04

Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity ( ω 500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strongmore » large-scale ascent ( ω 500  <  −25 hPa day −1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day −1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

RESEARCH NOTE: Slow-ridge/hotspot interactions from global gravity, seismic tomography and 87Sr/86Sr isotope data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goslin, Jean; Thirot, Jean-Louis; Noël, Olivier; Francheteau, Jean

1998-11-01

Among the mantle hotspots present under oceanic areas, a large number are located on-or close to-active oceanic ridges. This is especially true in the slow-spreading Atlantic and Indian oceans. The recent availability of worldwide gravity grids and the increasing coverage of geochemical data sets along active spreading centres allow a fruitful comparison of these data with global geoid and seismic tomography models, and allow one to study interactions between mantle plumes and active slow-spreading ridges. The observed correlations allow us to draw preliminary conclusions on the general links between surficial processes, which shape the detailed morphology of the ridge axes, and deeper processes, active in the upper mantle below the ridge axial domains as a whole. The interactions are first studied at the scale of the Atlantic (the Mid-Atlantic Ridge from Iceland to Bouvet Island) from the correlation between the zero-age free-air gravity anomaly, which reflects the zero-age depth of the ridge axis, and Sr isotopic ratios of ridge axis basalts. The study is then extended to a more global scale (the slow ridges from Iceland to the Gulf of Aden) by including geoid and upper-mantle tomography models. The interactions appear complex, ranging from the effect of large and very productive plumes, almost totally overprinting the long-wavelength segmentation pattern of the ridge, to that of weaker hotspots, barely marking some of the observables in the ridge axial domain. Intermediate cases are observed, in which hotspots of medium activity (or whose activity has gradually decreased) located at some distance from the ridge axis produce geophysical or geochemical signals whose variation along the axis can be correlated with the geometry of the plume head in the upper mantle. Such observations tend to preclude the use of a single hotspot/ridge interaction model and stress the need for additional observations in various plume/ridge configurations.

Empirical Evidence for the Effect of Airline Travel on Inter-Regional Influenza Spread in the United States

PubMed Central

Brownstein, John S; Wolfe, Cecily J; Mandl, Kenneth D

2006-01-01

Background The influence of air travel on influenza spread has been the subject of numerous investigations using simulation, but very little empirical evidence has been provided. Understanding the role of airline travel in large-scale influenza spread is especially important given the mounting threat of an influenza pandemic. Several recent simulation studies have concluded that air travel restrictions may not have a significant impact on the course of a pandemic. Here, we assess, with empirical data, the role of airline volume on the yearly inter-regional spread of influenza in the United States. Methods and Findings We measured rate of inter-regional spread and timing of influenza in the United States for nine seasons, from 1996 to 2005 using weekly influenza and pneumonia mortality from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonality was characterized by band-pass filtering. We found that domestic airline travel volume in November (mostly surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday) predicts the rate of influenza spread (r 2 = 0.60; p = 0.014). We also found that international airline travel influences the timing of influenza mortality (r 2 = 0.59; p = 0.016). The flight ban in the US after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, and the subsequent depression of the air travel market, provided a natural experiment for the evaluation of flight restrictions; the decrease in air travel was associated with a delayed and prolonged influenza season. Conclusions We provide the first empirical evidence for the role of airline travel in long-range dissemination of influenza. Our results suggest an important influence of international air travel on the timing of influenza introduction, as well as an influence of domestic air travel on the rate of inter-regional influenza spread in the US. Pandemic preparedness strategies should account for a possible benefit of airline travel restrictions on influenza spread. PMID:16968115

Irreversible opinion spreading on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Candia, Julián

2007-02-01

We study the dynamical and critical behavior of a model for irreversible opinion spreading on Barabási-Albert (BA) scale-free networks by performing extensive Monte Carlo simulations. The opinion spreading within an inhomogeneous society is investigated by means of the magnetic Eden model, a nonequilibrium kinetic model for the growth of binary mixtures in contact with a thermal bath. The deposition dynamics, which is studied as a function of the degree of the occupied sites, shows evidence for the leading role played by hubs in the growth process. Systems of finite size grow either ordered or disordered, depending on the temperature. By means of standard finite-size scaling procedures, the effective order-disorder phase transitions are found to persist in the thermodynamic limit. This critical behavior, however, is absent in related equilibrium spin systems such as the Ising model on BA scale-free networks, which in the thermodynamic limit only displays a ferromagnetic phase. The dependence of these results on the degree exponent is also discussed for the case of uncorrelated scale-free networks.

Melt distribution along the axis of ultraslow spreading mid-ocean ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlindwein, V. S. N.; Schmid, F.; Meier, M.

2017-12-01

Ultraslow spreading mid-ocean ridges (<15 mm/y full spreading rate) differ from faster spreading ridges by their uneven melt distribution. Crustal thickness varies along axis from zero to more than 8 km at volcanic centers. These volcanic centers receive more melt than the regional average and may be sustained for millions of years. The segmentation pattern and active volcanism at ultraslow spreading ridges greatly differs from faster spreading ridges. Using networks of ocean bottom seismometers at three differing ridge segments, we could show that the maximum depth of brittle faulting, equivalent approximately to temperatures of 600-700°C, varies drastically along axis. Ridge sections that lack an igneous crust exhibit a thick lithosphere as evidenced by the deepest mid-ocean ridge earthquakes observed so far at more than 30 km depth. Beneath areas of basalt exposure, in particular beneath pronounced volcanic centers, the axial lithosphere may be more than 15 km thinner allowing for melt flow at the base of the lithosphere towards the volcanoes, a process that has been postulated to explain the uneven along-axis melt distribution. Spreading events at ultraslow spreading ridges are unusual as we found from two spreading episodes at 85°E Gakkel Ridge and Segment 8 volcano on the Southwest Indian Ridge. These eruptions were preceded or accompanied by large (M>5) and long-lasting earthquake swarms and active magmatism lasted over 3-16 years. A massive hydrothermal event plume and sounds from deep submarine explosive volcanism were observed at Gakkel Ridge. At the Segment 8 volcano, we imaged a melt reservoir extending to about 8 km depth below the volcano that potentially fed a sill intrusion recorded by an ocean bottom seismometers about 30 km away at a neighboring subordinate volcanic center. To better understand the segmentation and melt transport at ultraslow spreading rigdes, we recently conducted a segment-scale seismicity survey of Knipovich Ridge in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. Here we deployed 28 ocean bottom seismometers along 160 km of ridge axis for one year, the currently largest mid-ocean ridge microseismicity experiment.

General characteristics of relative dispersion in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corrado, Raffaele; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Palatella, Luigi; Santoleri, Rosalia; Zambianchi, Enrico

2017-04-01

The multi-scale and nonlinear nature of the ocean dynamics dramatically affects the spreading of matter, like pollutants, marine litter, etc., of physical and chemical seawater properties, and the biological connectivity inside and among different basins. Based on the Finite-Scale Lyapunov Exponent analysis of the largest available near-surface Lagrangian data set from the Global Drifter Program, our results show that, despite the large variety of flow features, relative dispersion can ultimately be described by a few parameters common to all ocean sub-basins, at least in terms of order of magnitude. This provides valuable information to undertake Lagrangian dispersion studies by means of models and/or of observational data. Moreover, our results show that the relative dispersion rates measured at submesoscale are significantly higher than for large-scale dynamics. Auxiliary analysis of high resolution GPS-tracked drifter hourly data as well as of the drogued/undrogued status of the buoys is provided in support of our conclusions. A possible application of our study, concerning reverse drifter motion and error growth analysis, is proposed relatively to the case of the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 aircraft.

General characteristics of relative dispersion in the ocean.

PubMed

Corrado, Raffaele; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Palatella, Luigi; Santoleri, Rosalia; Zambianchi, Enrico

2017-04-11

The multi-scale and nonlinear nature of the ocean dynamics dramatically affects the spreading of matter, like pollutants, marine litter, etc., of physical and chemical seawater properties, and the biological connectivity inside and among different basins. Based on the Finite-Scale Lyapunov Exponent analysis of the largest available near-surface Lagrangian data set from the Global Drifter Program, our results show that, despite the large variety of flow features, relative dispersion can ultimately be described by a few parameters common to all ocean sub-basins, at least in terms of order of magnitude. This provides valuable information to undertake Lagrangian dispersion studies by means of models and/or of observational data. Moreover, our results show that the relative dispersion rates measured at submesoscale are significantly higher than for large-scale dynamics. Auxiliary analysis of high resolution GPS-tracked drifter hourly data as well as of the drogued/undrogued status of the buoys is provided in support of our conclusions. A possible application of our study, concerning reverse drifter motion and error growth analysis, is proposed relatively to the case of the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 aircraft.

General characteristics of relative dispersion in the ocean

PubMed Central

Corrado, Raffaele; Lacorata, Guglielmo; Palatella, Luigi; Santoleri, Rosalia; Zambianchi, Enrico

2017-01-01

The multi-scale and nonlinear nature of the ocean dynamics dramatically affects the spreading of matter, like pollutants, marine litter, etc., of physical and chemical seawater properties, and the biological connectivity inside and among different basins. Based on the Finite-Scale Lyapunov Exponent analysis of the largest available near-surface Lagrangian data set from the Global Drifter Program, our results show that, despite the large variety of flow features, relative dispersion can ultimately be described by a few parameters common to all ocean sub-basins, at least in terms of order of magnitude. This provides valuable information to undertake Lagrangian dispersion studies by means of models and/or of observational data. Moreover, our results show that the relative dispersion rates measured at submesoscale are significantly higher than for large-scale dynamics. Auxiliary analysis of high resolution GPS-tracked drifter hourly data as well as of the drogued/undrogued status of the buoys is provided in support of our conclusions. A possible application of our study, concerning reverse drifter motion and error growth analysis, is proposed relatively to the case of the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 aircraft. PMID:28397797

TRIGGERED STAR FORMATION SURROUNDING WOLF-RAYET STAR HD 211853

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu Tie; Wu Yuefang; Zhang Huawei

The environment surrounding Wolf-Rayet (W-R) star HD 211853 is studied in molecular, infrared, as well as radio, and H I emission. The molecular ring consists of well-separated cores, which have a volume density of 10{sup 3} cm{sup -3} and kinematic temperature {approx}20 K. Most of the cores are under gravitational collapse due to external pressure from the surrounding ionized gas. From the spectral energy distribution modeling toward the young stellar objects, the sequential star formation is revealed on a large scale in space spreading from the W-R star to the molecular ring. A small-scale sequential star formation is revealed towardmore » core 'A', which harbors a very young star cluster. Triggered star formations are thus suggested. The presence of the photodissociation region, the fragmentation of the molecular ring, the collapse of the cores, and the large-scale sequential star formation indicate that the 'collect and collapse' process functions in this region. The star-forming activities in core 'A' seem to be affected by the 'radiation-driven implosion' process.« less

Structure and kinematics of segment-scale crustal accretion processes in Iceland and implications for analogous mid-ocean ridge systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siler, Drew Lorenz

2011-12-01

The sub-surface geologic structure of the crust is controlled by the magmatic and tectonic processes that construct the crust during plate spreading. As a result, geologic structure provides constraints on the processes that occur during plate spreading. The crust of the Skagi region of northern Iceland, where this study was focused, was accreted by magmatic construction to Iceland ˜7-10 Ma and subsequently glacially eroded, exhuming ˜1-3 km of structural relief. Continuous spreading-parallel and spreading-orthogonal mountain ranges expose the crust accreted at discrete spreading segments, the fundamental intervals upon which plate spreading and crustal accretion occur. As a result, Skagi is an ideal location to employ geologic structure analysis to study magmatic rifting processes. Within spreading segments structural patterns vary significantly between segment centers and distal fissure swarms. While segment centers are characterized by focused magmatic construction and km-scale sub-volcanic subsidence, fissure swarms are characterized by limited magmatic construction, minor sub-axial subsidence and lateral dike injection. Such along-strike variation indicates that both magma in the upper crust and gabbroic material in the lower crust must be redistributed along-strike within spreading segments during plate spreading. Material flow is directed from beneath segment centers towards distal fissure swarms. At the regional scale, each spreading segment is a structurally discrete interval of Iceland's Neovolcanic Zone. As a result of west-northwestward movement of Iceland relative to the Iceland hotspot, the rift zone axis has progressively relocated to the east-southeast with time, leaving a series of abandoned rift zones throughout western Iceland. A compilation of published K/Ar and 40Ar/39Ar age data and geologic data from across northern Iceland shows that rift relocation occurs via frequent (2-3 Ma), small-scale (˜20 km) rift propagations rather than rare, 100s of km 'rift jumps' as is conventional models suggest. The structure relationships we define in the Icelandic crust are similar to that of other magmatic rift systems including Mid-Ocean Ridges, continental rifts and ancient volcanic rift margins. As such, we suggest that many of the crustal accretion processes we have inferred from Icelandic data may be important in these analogous environments as well.

Identification and Screening of Carcass Pretreatment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Technical Fact Sheet Managing the treatment and disposal of large numbers of animal carcasses following a foreign animal disease (FAD) outbreak is a challenging endeavor. Pretreatment of the infectious carcasses might facilitate the disposal of the carcasses by simplifying the transportation, reducing the pathogen load in the carcasses, or by isolating the pathogen from the environment to minimize spread of any pathogens.This brief summarizes information contained in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report (EPA/600/R-15/053) entitled Identification and Screening of Infectious Carcass Pretreatment Alternatives. This brief describes how each of eleven pretreatment methods can be used prior to, and in conjunction with, six commonly used large-scale carcass disposal options

Complex Plate Tectonic Features on Planetary Bodies: Analogs from Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stock, J. M.; Smrekar, S. E.

2016-12-01

We review the types and scales of observations needed on other rocky planetary bodies (e.g., Mars, Venus, exoplanets) to evaluate evidence of present or past plate motions. Earth's plate boundaries were initially simplified into three basic types (ridges, trenches, and transform faults). Previous studies examined the Moon, Mars, Venus, Mercury and icy moons such as Europa, for evidence of features, including linear rifts, arcuate convergent zones, strike-slip faults, and distributed deformation (rifting or folding). Yet, several aspects merit further consideration. 1) Is the feature active or fossil? Earth's active mid ocean ridges are bathymetric highs, and seafloor depth increases on either side; whereas, fossil mid ocean ridges may be as deep as the surrounding abyssal plain with no major rift valley, although with a minor gravity low (e.g., Osbourn Trough, W. Pacific Ocean). Fossil trenches have less topographic relief than active trenches (e.g., the fossil trench along the Patton Escarpment, west of California). 2) On Earth, fault patterns of spreading centers depend on volcanism. Excess volcanism reduced faulting. Fault visibility increases as spreading rates slow, or as magmatism decreases, producing high-angle normal faults parallel to the spreading center. At magma-poor spreading centers, high resolution bathymetry shows low angle detachment faults with large scale mullions and striations parallel to plate motion (e.g., Mid Atlantic Ridge, Southwest Indian Ridge). 3) Sedimentation on Earth masks features that might be visible on a non-erosional planet. Subduction zones on Earth in areas of low sedimentation have clear trench -parallel faults causing flexural deformation of the downgoing plate; in highly sedimented subduction zones, no such faults can be seen, and there may be no bathymetric trench at all. 4) Areas of Earth with broad upwelling, such as the North Fiji Basin, have complex plate tectonic patterns with many individual but poorly linked ridge segments and transform faults. These details and scales of features should be considered in planning future surveys of altimetry, reflectance, magnetics, compositional, and gravity data from other planetary bodies aimed at understanding the link between a planet's surface and interior, whether via plate tectonics or other processes.

Automated Phase Segmentation for Large-Scale X-ray Diffraction Data Using a Graph-Based Phase Segmentation (GPhase) Algorithm.

PubMed

Xiong, Zheng; He, Yinyan; Hattrick-Simpers, Jason R; Hu, Jianjun

2017-03-13

The creation of composition-processing-structure relationships currently represents a key bottleneck for data analysis for high-throughput experimental (HTE) material studies. Here we propose an automated phase diagram attribution algorithm for HTE data analysis that uses a graph-based segmentation algorithm and Delaunay tessellation to create a crystal phase diagram from high throughput libraries of X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns. We also propose the sample-pair based objective evaluation measures for the phase diagram prediction problem. Our approach was validated using 278 diffraction patterns from a Fe-Ga-Pd composition spread sample with a prediction precision of 0.934 and a Matthews Correlation Coefficient score of 0.823. The algorithm was then applied to the open Ni-Mn-Al thin-film composition spread sample to obtain the first predicted phase diagram mapping for that sample.

Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Meloni, Sandro; Perra, Nicola; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Moreno, Yamir; Vespignani, Alessandro

2011-01-01

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of realistic scenarios that include population heterogeneity, social structures, and mobility processes down to the individual level. The advances in the realism of epidemic description call for the explicit modeling of individual behavioral responses to the presence of disease within modeling frameworks. Here we formulate and analyze a metapopulation model that incorporates several scenarios of self-initiated behavioral changes into the mobility patterns of individuals. We find that prevalence-based travel limitations do not alter the epidemic invasion threshold. Strikingly, we observe in both synthetic and data-driven numerical simulations that when travelers decide to avoid locations with high levels of prevalence, this self-initiated behavioral change may enhance disease spreading. Our results point out that the real-time availability of information on the disease and the ensuing behavioral changes in the population may produce a negative impact on disease containment and mitigation.

Viral Activation of Cellular Metabolism

PubMed Central

Sanchez, Erica L.; Lagunoff, Michael

2015-01-01

To ensure optimal environments for their replication and spread, viruses have evolved to alter many host cell pathways. In the last decade, metabolomic studies have shown that eukaryotic viruses induce large-scale alterations in host cellular metabolism. Most viruses examined to date induce aerobic glycolysis also known as the Warburg effect. Many viruses tested also induce fatty acid synthesis as well as glutaminolysis. These modifications of carbon source utilization by infected cells can increase available energy for virus replication and virion production, provide specific cellular substrates for virus particles and create viral replication niches while increasing infected cell survival. Each virus species also likely requires unique metabolic changes for successful spread and recent research has identified additional virus-specific metabolic changes induced by many virus species. A better understanding of the metabolic alterations required for each virus may lead to novel therapeutic approaches through targeted inhibition of specific cellular metabolic pathways. PMID:25812764

Population genomics of Bronze Age Eurasia.

PubMed

Allentoft, Morten E; Sikora, Martin; Sjögren, Karl-Göran; Rasmussen, Simon; Rasmussen, Morten; Stenderup, Jesper; Damgaard, Peter B; Schroeder, Hannes; Ahlström, Torbjörn; Vinner, Lasse; Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Margaryan, Ashot; Higham, Tom; Chivall, David; Lynnerup, Niels; Harvig, Lise; Baron, Justyna; Della Casa, Philippe; Dąbrowski, Paweł; Duffy, Paul R; Ebel, Alexander V; Epimakhov, Andrey; Frei, Karin; Furmanek, Mirosław; Gralak, Tomasz; Gromov, Andrey; Gronkiewicz, Stanisław; Grupe, Gisela; Hajdu, Tamás; Jarysz, Radosław; Khartanovich, Valeri; Khokhlov, Alexandr; Kiss, Viktória; Kolář, Jan; Kriiska, Aivar; Lasak, Irena; Longhi, Cristina; McGlynn, George; Merkevicius, Algimantas; Merkyte, Inga; Metspalu, Mait; Mkrtchyan, Ruzan; Moiseyev, Vyacheslav; Paja, László; Pálfi, György; Pokutta, Dalia; Pospieszny, Łukasz; Price, T Douglas; Saag, Lehti; Sablin, Mikhail; Shishlina, Natalia; Smrčka, Václav; Soenov, Vasilii I; Szeverényi, Vajk; Tóth, Gusztáv; Trifanova, Synaru V; Varul, Liivi; Vicze, Magdolna; Yepiskoposyan, Levon; Zhitenev, Vladislav; Orlando, Ludovic; Sicheritz-Pontén, Thomas; Brunak, Søren; Nielsen, Rasmus; Kristiansen, Kristian; Willerslev, Eske

2015-06-11

The Bronze Age of Eurasia (around 3000-1000 BC) was a period of major cultural changes. However, there is debate about whether these changes resulted from the circulation of ideas or from human migrations, potentially also facilitating the spread of languages and certain phenotypic traits. We investigated this by using new, improved methods to sequence low-coverage genomes from 101 ancient humans from across Eurasia. We show that the Bronze Age was a highly dynamic period involving large-scale population migrations and replacements, responsible for shaping major parts of present-day demographic structure in both Europe and Asia. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesized spread of Indo-European languages during the Early Bronze Age. We also demonstrate that light skin pigmentation in Europeans was already present at high frequency in the Bronze Age, but not lactose tolerance, indicating a more recent onset of positive selection on lactose tolerance than previously thought.

The pathways of Marine Plastic into the Ocean Garbage Patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sebille, E.; England, M. H.; Froyland, G.

2013-12-01

Much of the plastic debris in the near-surface ocean collects in so-called garbage patches where, due to convergence of the surface flow, the debris is trapped for decades to millennia. Here, we use observational data from the Global Drifter Program in a particle-trajectory tracer approach to study the fate of marine debris in the open ocean from coastal regions around the world on interannual to centennial time scales. We find that garbage patches emerge in each of the five subtropical basins. The evolution of each of the five patches is markedly different, however. With the exception of the North Pacific, all patches are much more dispersive than expected from linear ocean circulation theory, suggesting that on centennial time scales the different basins are much better connected than previously thought and that inter-ocean exchanges play a large role in the spreading of marine debris. In order to increase public awareness on this issue of sustainability in the ocean, we have used the methods and data of this study to create a public website at www.adrift.org.au where all interested can investigate the spread of tracer from any and all points on the ocean surface.

Can we stop transgenes from taking a walk on the wild side?

PubMed

Dlugosch, Katrina M; Whitton, Jeannette

2008-03-01

Whether the potential costs associated with broad-scale use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) outweigh possible benefits is highly contentious, including within the scientific community. Even among those generally in favour of commercialization of GM crops, there is nonetheless broad recognition that transgene escape into the wild should be minimized. But is it possible to achieve containment of engineered genetic elements in the context of large scale agricultural production? In a previous study, Warwick et al. (2003) documented transgene escape via gene flow from herbicide resistant (HR) canola (Brassica napus) into neighbouring weedy B. rapa populations (Fig. 1) in two agricultural fields in Quebec, Canada. In a follow-up study in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Warwick et al. (2008) show that the transgene has persisted and spread within the weedy population in the absence of selection for herbicide resistance. Certainly a trait like herbicide resistance is expected to spread when selected through the use of the herbicide, despite potentially negative epistatic effects on fitness. However, Warwick et al.'s findings suggest that direct selection favouring the transgene is not required for its persistence. So is there any hope of preventing transgene escape into the wild?

Adaptation during northern range expansion in the elongate hemlock scale Fiorinia externa

Treesearch

Evan Preisser; Alexandra Lodge; David Orwig; Joseph Elkinton

2007-01-01

The elongate hemlock scale Fiorinia externa, (EHS) an invasive pest from Japan, was first found in the eastern United States in 1908. It feeds on a variety of plants, most notably the eastern hemlock Tsuga canadensis, and has been spreading slowly into southern New England. In order to examine the northern spread of EHS and the...

Parallel interference cancellation for CDMA applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divsalar, Dariush (Inventor); Simon, Marvin K. (Inventor); Raphaeli, Dan (Inventor)

1997-01-01

The present invention provides a method of decoding a spread spectrum composite signal, the composite signal comprising plural user signals that have been spread with plural respective codes, wherein each coded signal is despread, averaged to produce a signal value, analyzed to produce a tentative decision, respread, summed with other respread signals to produce combined interference signals, the method comprising scaling the combined interference signals with a weighting factor to produce a scaled combined interference signal, scaling the composite signal with the weighting factor to produce a scaled composite signal, scaling the signal value by the complement of the weighting factor to produce a leakage signal, combining the scaled composite signal, the scaled combined interference signal and the leakage signal to produce an estimate of a respective user signal.

Gossip spread in social network Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, Tobias

2017-04-01

Gossip almost inevitably arises in real social networks. In this article we investigate the relationship between the number of friends of a person and limits on how far gossip about that person can spread in the network. How far gossip travels in a network depends on two sets of factors: (a) factors determining gossip transmission from one person to the next and (b) factors determining network topology. For a simple model where gossip is spread among people who know the victim it is known that a standard scale-free network model produces a non-monotonic relationship between number of friends and expected relative spread of gossip, a pattern that is also observed in real networks (Lind et al., 2007). Here, we study gossip spread in two social network models (Toivonen et al., 2006; Vázquez, 2003) by exploring the parameter space of both models and fitting them to a real Facebook data set. Both models can produce the non-monotonic relationship of real networks more accurately than a standard scale-free model while also exhibiting more realistic variability in gossip spread. Of the two models, the one given in Vázquez (2003) best captures both the expected values and variability of gossip spread.

Initial velocity V-shapes of young asteroid families

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolin, Bryce T.; Walsh, Kevin J.; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Delbó, Marco

2018-01-01

Ejection velocity fields of asteroid families are largely unconstrained due to the fact that members disperse relatively quickly on Myr time-scales by secular resonances and the Yarkovsky effect. The spreading of fragments in a by the Yarkovsky effect is indistinguishable from the spreading caused by the initial ejection of fragments. By examining families <20 Myr old, we can use the V-shape identification technique to separate family shapes that are due to the initial ejection velocity field and those that are due to the Yarkovsky effect. Asteroid families that are <20 Myr old provide an opportunity to study the velocity field of family fragments before they become too dispersed. Only the Karin family's initial velocity field has been determined and scales inversely with diameter, D-1. We have applied the V-shape identification technique to constrain young families' initial ejection velocity fields by measuring the curvature of their fragments' V-shape correlation in semimajor axis, a, versus D-1 space. Curvature from a straight line implies a deviation from a scaling of D-1. We measure the V-shape curvature of 11 young asteroid families including the 1993 FY12, Aeolia, Brangane, Brasilia, Clarissa, Iannini, Karin, Konig, Koronis(2), Theobalda and Veritas asteroid families. We find that the majority of asteroid families have initial ejection velocity fields consistent with ∼D-1 supporting laboratory impact experiments and computer simulations of disrupting asteroid parent bodies.

Descriptive Cadaveric Study Comparing the Accuracy of Ultrasound Versus Fluoroscopic Guidance for First Sacral Transforaminal Injections: A Comparison Study.

PubMed

Thompson, Bradley F; Pingree, Matthew J; Qu, Wenchun; Murthy, Naveen S; Lachman, Nirusha; Hurdle, Mark Friedrich

2018-04-01

Ultrasound is rarely used for guiding lumbosacral epidural steroid injections due to its technical limitations. For example, sonographic imaging lacks the ability to confirm epidural spread and identify vascular uptake. The perceived risk that these limitations pose to human subjects has precluded any large scale clinical trials to date. To compare the accuracy of ultrasound versus fluoroscopic guidance for first sacral transforaminal epidural injections. Cadaveric comparative study using dichotomous outcomes. A fluoroscopy suite and anatomic laboratory at an academic medical center. Four unembalmed adult human cadavers with no history of spinal surgery. Eight sites were injected twice by one interventionalist, using fluoroscopic and ultrasound guidance. In the fluoroscopy arm, contrast spread was assessed using computed tomography. In the ultrasound arm, latex spread was assessed using gross anatomic dissection. Any visible evidence of epidural spread constituted a positive result. Comparison of the success of obtaining epidural contrast flow was the primary outcome measure. Secondary outcome measures included average duration, rate of intravascular uptake, and quantity of intravascular uptake. All injections performed in both the ultrasound arm and the fluoroscopy arm had positive epidural spread. The average duration was 3.03 minutes with fluoroscopy and 4.76 minutes with ultrasound. The rate of intravascular uptake was 37.5% with fluoroscopy and 50% with ultrasound. Within the ultrasound arm, greater intravascular spread and duration variability were recorded. Although ultrasonography can provide reliable image guidance for cannulating the first sacral foramen in cadavers, it would have limited clinical utility due to its inability to visualize relevant neurovascular structures deep to the osseus roof and exclude intravascular uptake. IV. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Viral epidemics in a cell culture: novel high resolution data and their interpretation by a percolation theory based model.

PubMed

Gönci, Balázs; Németh, Valéria; Balogh, Emeric; Szabó, Bálint; Dénes, Ádám; Környei, Zsuzsanna; Vicsek, Tamás

2010-12-20

Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent large scale observations have resulted in major discoveries concerning the overall features of the spreading process in systems with highly mobile susceptible units, but virtually no data are available about observations of infection spreading for a very large number of immobile units. Here we present the first detailed quantitative documentation of percolation-type viral epidemics in a highly reproducible in vitro system consisting of tens of thousands of virtually motionless cells. We use a confluent astroglial monolayer in a Petri dish and induce productive infection in a limited number of cells with a genetically modified herpesvirus strain. This approach allows extreme high resolution tracking of the spatio-temporal development of the epidemic. We show that a simple model is capable of reproducing the basic features of our observations, i.e., the observed behaviour is likely to be applicable to many different kinds of systems. Statistical physics inspired approaches to our data, such as fractal dimension of the infected clusters as well as their size distribution, seem to fit into a percolation theory based interpretation. We suggest that our observations may be used to model epidemics in more complex systems, which are difficult to study in isolation.

Viral Epidemics in a Cell Culture: Novel High Resolution Data and Their Interpretation by a Percolation Theory Based Model

PubMed Central

Gönci, Balázs; Németh, Valéria; Balogh, Emeric; Szabó, Bálint; Dénes, Ádám; Környei, Zsuzsanna; Vicsek, Tamás

2010-01-01

Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent large scale observations have resulted in major discoveries concerning the overall features of the spreading process in systems with highly mobile susceptible units, but virtually no data are available about observations of infection spreading for a very large number of immobile units. Here we present the first detailed quantitative documentation of percolation-type viral epidemics in a highly reproducible in vitro system consisting of tens of thousands of virtually motionless cells. We use a confluent astroglial monolayer in a Petri dish and induce productive infection in a limited number of cells with a genetically modified herpesvirus strain. This approach allows extreme high resolution tracking of the spatio-temporal development of the epidemic. We show that a simple model is capable of reproducing the basic features of our observations, i.e., the observed behaviour is likely to be applicable to many different kinds of systems. Statistical physics inspired approaches to our data, such as fractal dimension of the infected clusters as well as their size distribution, seem to fit into a percolation theory based interpretation. We suggest that our observations may be used to model epidemics in more complex systems, which are difficult to study in isolation. PMID:21187920

Driving reconnection in sheared magnetic configurations with forced fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongkitiwanichakul, Peera; Makwana, Kirit D.; Ruffolo, David

2018-02-01

We investigate reconnection of magnetic field lines in sheared magnetic field configurations due to fluctuations driven by random forcing by means of numerical simulations. The simulations are performed with an incompressible, pseudo-spectral magnetohydrodynamics code in 2D where we take thick, resistively decaying, current-sheet like sheared magnetic configurations which do not reconnect spontaneously. We describe and test the forcing that is introduced in the momentum equation to drive fluctuations. It is found that the forcing does not change the rate of decay; however, it adds and removes energy faster in the presence of the magnetic shear structure compared to when it has decayed away. We observe that such a forcing can induce magnetic reconnection due to field line wandering leading to the formation of magnetic islands and O-points. These reconnecting field lines spread out as the current sheet decays with time. A semi-empirical formula is derived which reasonably explains the formation and spread of O-points. We find that reconnection spreads faster with stronger forcing and longer correlation time of forcing, while the wavenumber of forcing does not have a significant effect. When the field line wandering becomes large enough, the neighboring current sheets with opposite polarity start interacting, and then the magnetic field is rapidly annihilated. This work is useful to understand how forced fluctuations can drive reconnection in large scale current structures in space and astrophysical plasmas that are not susceptible to reconnection.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States.

PubMed

Eggo, Rosalind M; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M

2011-02-06

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty.

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States

PubMed Central

Eggo, Rosalind M.; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M.

2011-01-01

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty. PMID:20573630

The economics of time shared computing: Congestion, user costs and capacity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agnew, C. E.

1982-01-01

Time shared systems permit the fixed costs of computing resources to be spread over large numbers of users. However, bottleneck results in the theory of closed queueing networks can be used to show that this economy of scale will be offset by the increased congestion that results as more users are added to the system. If one considers the total costs, including the congestion cost, there is an optimal number of users for a system which equals the saturation value usually used to define system capacity.

Laser-filamentation-induced condensation and snow formation in a cloud chamber.

PubMed

Ju, Jingjing; Liu, Jiansheng; Wang, Cheng; Sun, Haiyi; Wang, Wentao; Ge, Xiaochun; Li, Chuang; Chin, See Leang; Li, Ruxin; Xu, Zhizhan

2012-04-01

Using 1 kHz, 9 mJ femtosecond laser pulses, we demonstrate laser-filamentation-induced spectacular snow formation in a cloud chamber. An intense updraft of warm moist air is generated owing to the continuous heating by the high-repetition filamentation. As it encounters the cold air above, water condensation and large-sized particles spread unevenly across the whole cloud chamber via convection and cyclone like action on a macroscopic scale. This indicates that high-repetition filamentation plays a significant role in macroscopic laser-induced water condensation and snow formation.

Examination of Wildland Fire Spread at Small Scales Using Direct Numerical Simulations and High-Speed Laser Diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimer, N. T.; Mackoweicki, A. S.; Poludnenko, A. Y.; Hoffman, C.; Daily, J. W.; Rieker, G. B.; Hamlington, P.

2017-12-01

Results are presented from a joint computational and experimental research effort focused on understanding and characterizing wildland fire spread at small scales (roughly 1m-1mm) using direct numerical simulations (DNS) with chemical kinetics mechanisms that have been calibrated using data from high-speed laser diagnostics. The simulations are intended to directly resolve, with high physical accuracy, all small-scale fluid dynamic and chemical processes relevant to wildland fire spread. The high fidelity of the simulations is enabled by the calibration and validation of DNS sub-models using data from high-speed laser diagnostics. These diagnostics have the capability to measure temperature and chemical species concentrations, and are used here to characterize evaporation and pyrolysis processes in wildland fuels subjected to an external radiation source. The chemical kinetics code CHEMKIN-PRO is used to study and reduce complex reaction mechanisms for water removal, pyrolysis, and gas phase combustion during solid biomass burning. Simulations are then presented for a gaseous pool fire coupled with the resulting multi-step chemical reaction mechanisms, and the results are connected to the fundamental structure and spread of wildland fires. It is anticipated that the combined computational and experimental approach of this research effort will provide unprecedented access to information about chemical species, temperature, and turbulence during the entire pyrolysis, evaporation, ignition, and combustion process, thereby permitting more complete understanding of the physics that must be represented by coarse-scale numerical models of wildland fire spread.

Potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by wildfowl: dispersal ranges and rates determined from large-scale satellite telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaidet, Nicolas; Cappelle, Julien; Takekawa, John Y.; Prosser, Diann J.; Iverson, Samuel A.; Douglas, David C.; Perry, William M.; Mundkur, Taej; Newman, Scott H.

2010-01-01

1. Migratory birds are major candidates for long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens. In recent years, wildfowl have been suspected of contributing to the rapid geographic spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Experimental infection studies reveal that some wild ducks, geese and swans shed this virus asymptomatically and hence have the potential to spread it as they move. 2. We evaluate the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses by wildfowl through an analysis of the movement range and movement rate of birds monitored by satellite telemetry in relation to the apparent asymptomatic infection duration (AID) measured in experimental studies. We analysed the first large-scale data set of wildfowl movements, including 228 birds from 19 species monitored by satellite telemetry in 2006–2009, over HPAI H5N1 affected regions of Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. Our results indicate that individual migratory wildfowl have the potential to disperse HPAI H5N1 over extensive distances, being able to perform movements of up to 2900 km within timeframes compatible with the duration of asymptomatic infection. 4. However, the likelihood of such virus dispersal over long distances by individual wildfowl is low: we estimate that for an individual migratory bird there are, on average, only 5–15 days per year when infection could result in the dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus over 500 km. 5. Staging at stopover sites during migration is typically longer than the period of infection and viral shedding, preventing birds from dispersing a virus over several consecutive but interrupted long-distance movements. Intercontinental virus dispersion would therefore probably require relay transmission between a series of successively infected migratory birds. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our results provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 virus by selected migratory birds. Such dispersive potential rests on the assumption that free-living wildfowl will respond analogously to captive, experimentally-infected birds, and that asymptomatic infection will not alter their movement abilities. Our approach of combining experimental exposure data and telemetry information provides an analytical framework for quantifying the risk of spread of avian-borne diseases.

A local immunization strategy for networks with overlapping community structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghavian, Fatemeh; Salehi, Mostafa; Teimouri, Mehdi

2017-02-01

Since full coverage treatment is not feasible due to limited resources, we need to utilize an immunization strategy to effectively distribute the available vaccines. On the other hand, the structure of contact network among people has a significant impact on epidemics of infectious diseases (such as SARS and influenza) in a population. Therefore, network-based immunization strategies aim to reduce the spreading rate by removing the vaccinated nodes from contact network. Such strategies try to identify more important nodes in epidemics spreading over a network. In this paper, we address the effect of overlapping nodes among communities on epidemics spreading. The proposed strategy is an optimized random-walk based selection of these nodes. The whole process is local, i.e. it requires contact network information in the level of nodes. Thus, it is applicable to large-scale and unknown networks in which the global methods usually are unrealizable. Our simulation results on different synthetic and real networks show that the proposed method outperforms the existing local methods in most cases. In particular, for networks with strong community structures, high overlapping membership of nodes or small size communities, the proposed method shows better performance.

Energy model for rumor propagation on social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shuo; Zhuang, Fuzhen; He, Qing; Shi, Zhongzhi; Ao, Xiang

2014-01-01

With the development of social networks, the impact of rumor propagation on human lives is more and more significant. Due to the change of propagation mode, traditional rumor propagation models designed for word-of-mouth process may not be suitable for describing the rumor spreading on social networks. To overcome this shortcoming, we carefully analyze the mechanisms of rumor propagation and the topological properties of large-scale social networks, then propose a novel model based on the physical theory. In this model, heat energy calculation formula and Metropolis rule are introduced to formalize this problem and the amount of heat energy is used to measure a rumor’s impact on a network. Finally, we conduct track experiments to show the evolution of rumor propagation, make comparison experiments to contrast the proposed model with the traditional models, and perform simulation experiments to study the dynamics of rumor spreading. The experiments show that (1) the rumor propagation simulated by our model goes through three stages: rapid growth, fluctuant persistence and slow decline; (2) individuals could spread a rumor repeatedly, which leads to the rumor’s resurgence; (3) rumor propagation is greatly influenced by a rumor’s attraction, the initial rumormonger and the sending probability.

String-theoretic breakdown of effective field theory near black hole horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodelson, Matthew; Silverstein, Eva

2017-09-01

We investigate the validity of the equivalence principle near horizons in string theory, analyzing the breakdown of effective field theory caused by longitudinal string spreading effects. An experiment is set up where a detector is thrown into a black hole a long time after an early infalling string. Light cone gauge calculations, taken at face value, indicate a detectable level of root-mean-square longitudinal spreading of the initial string as measured by the late infaller. This results from the large relative boost between the string and detector in the near-horizon region, which develops automatically despite their modest initial energies outside the black hole and the weak curvature in the geometry. We subject this scenario to basic consistency checks, using these to obtain a relatively conservative criterion for its detectability. In a companion paper, we exhibit longitudinal nonlocality in well-defined gauge-invariant S-matrix calculations, obtaining results consistent with the predicted spreading albeit not in a direct analog of the black hole process. We discuss applications of this effect to the firewall paradox, and estimate the time and distance scales it predicts for new physics near black hole and cosmological horizons.

Origin of the Indian Ocean-type isotopic signature in basalts from Philippine Sea plate spreading centers: An assessment of local versus large-scale processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickey-Vargas, Rosemary

1998-09-01

Basalts erupted from spreading centers on the Philippine Sea plate between 50 Ma and the present have the distinctive isotopic characteristics of Indian Ocean mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB), such as high 208Pb/204Pb and low 143Nd/144Nd for a given 206Pb/204Pb compared with Pacific and Atlantic Ocean MORB. This feature may indicate that the upper mantle of the Philippine Sea plate originated as part of the existing Indian Ocean upper mantle domain, or, alternatively, that local processes duplicated these isotopic characteristics within the sub-Philippine Sea plate upper mantle. Synthesis of new and published isotopic data for Philippine Sea plate basin basalts and island arc volcanic rocks, radiometric ages, and tectonic reconstructions of the plate indicates that local processes, such as contamination of the upper mantle by subducted materials or by western Pacific mantle plumes, did not produce the Indian Ocean-type signature in Philippine Sea plate MORB. It is more likely that the plate originated over a rapidly growing Indian Ocean upper mantle domain that had spread into the area between Australia/New Guinea and southeast Asia before 50 Ma.

Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics.

PubMed

Stark, James H; Cummings, Derek A T; Ermentrout, Bard; Ostroff, Stephen; Sharma, Ravi; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S; Wisniewski, Stephen R

2012-01-01

Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation=62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales.

Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics

PubMed Central

Stark, James H.; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Ermentrout, Bard; Ostroff, Stephen; Sharma, Ravi; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S.; Wisniewski, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Background Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. Methodology and Findings We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. Conclusions These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. PMID:22916274

Allometric scaling of UK urban emissions: interpretation and implications for air quality management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacKenzie, Rob; Barnes, Matt; Whyatt, Duncan; Hewitt, Nick

2016-04-01

Allometry uncovers structures and patterns by relating the characteristics of complex systems to a measure of scale. We present an allometric analysis of air quality for UK urban settlements, beginning with emissions and moving on to consider air concentrations. We consider both airshed-average 'urban background' concentrations (cf. those derived from satellites for NO2) and local pollution 'hotspots'. We show that there is a strong and robust scaling (with respect to population) of the non-point-source emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane, as well as the toxic pollutants nitrogen dioxide, PM2.5, and 1,3-butadiene. The scaling of traffic-related emissions is not simply a reflection of road length, but rather results from the socio-economic patterning of road-use. The recent controversy regarding diesel vehicle emissions is germane to our study but does not affect our overall conclusions. We next develop an hypothesis for the population-scaling of airshed-average air concentrations, with which we demonstrate that, although average air quality is expected to be worse in large urban centres compared to small urban centres, the overall effect is an economy of scale (i.e., large cities reduce the overall burden of emissions compared to the same population spread over many smaller urban settlements). Our hypothesis explains satellite-derived observations of airshed-average urban NO2 concentrations. The theory derived also explains which properties of nature-based solutions (urban greening) can make a significant contribution at city scale, and points to a hitherto unforeseen opportunity to make large cities cleaner than smaller cities in absolute terms with respect to their airshed-average pollutant concentration.

Controls on melting at spreading ridges from correlated abyssal peridotite - mid-ocean ridge basalt compositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regelous, Marcel; Weinzierl, Christoph G.; Haase, Karsten M.

2016-09-01

Variations in the volume and major element composition of basalt erupted along the global mid-ocean ridge system have been attributed to differences in mantle potential temperature, mantle composition, or plate spreading rate and lithosphere thickness. Abyssal peridotites, the residues of mantle melting beneath mid-ocean ridges, provide additional information on the melting process, which could be used to test these hypotheses. We compiled a global database of abyssal peridotite compositions averaged over the same ridge segments defined by Gale et al. (2013). In addition, we calculated the distance of each ridge segment to the nearest hotspots. We show that Cr# in spinel in abyssal peridotites is negatively correlated with Na90 in basalts from the same ridge segments on a global scale. Ridge segments that erupt basalts apparently produced by larger degrees of mantle melting are thus underlain by peridotites from which large amounts of melt have been extracted. We find that near-ridge hotspots have a more widespread influence on mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) composition and ridge depth than previously thought. However, when these hotspot-influenced ridge segments are excluded, the remaining segments show clear relationships between MORB composition, peridotite composition, and ridge depth with spreading rate. Very slow-spreading ridges (<20 mm/yr) are deeper, erupt basalts with higher Na90, Al90, K90/Ti90, and lower Fe90, Ca90/Al90, and expose peridotites with lower Cr# than intermediate and fast-spreading ridges. We show that away from hotspots, the spreading-rate dependence of the maximum degree of mantle melting inferred from Cr# in peridotites (FM) and the bulk degree of melting inferred from Na90 in basalts (FB) from the same ridge segments is unlikely to be due to variations in mantle composition. Nor can the effects of dynamic mantle upwelling or incomplete melt extraction at low spreading rates satisfactorily explain the observed compositions of abyssal peridotites and MORB from very slow-spreading ridges. Instead, the distinctive compositions of abyssal peridotites and MORB from very slow-spreading ridges could result from the presence of a thick lithospheric lid, leading to a lower average degree of melting, and a higher contribution to melting from more fertile mantle lithologies. Alternatively, spreading rate influences the thermal structure of the upper mantle such that the mantle beneath very slow-spreading ridges is cooler.

Floodplains as an Achilles’ heel of Amazonian forest resilience

PubMed Central

Flores, Bernardo M.; Holmgren, Milena; van Nes, Egbert H.; Jakovac, Catarina C.; Mesquita, Rita C. G.; Scheffer, Marten

2017-01-01

The massive forests of central Amazonia are often considered relatively resilient against climatic variation, but this view is challenged by the wildfires invoked by recent droughts. The impact of such fires that spread from pervasive sources of ignition may reveal where forests are less likely to persist in a drier future. Here we combine field observations with remotely sensed information for the whole Amazon to show that the annually inundated lowland forests that run through the heart of the system may be trapped relatively easily into a fire-dominated savanna state. This lower forest resilience on floodplains is suggested by patterns of tree cover distribution across the basin, and supported by our field and remote sensing studies showing that floodplain fires have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on forest structure as well as soil fertility. Although floodplains cover only 14% of the Amazon basin, their fires can have substantial cascading effects because forests and peatlands may release large amounts of carbon, and wildfires can spread to adjacent uplands. Floodplains are thus an Achilles’ heel of the Amazon system when it comes to the risk of large-scale climate-driven transitions. PMID:28396440

Impact of Repeated Exposures on Information Spreading in Social Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Cangqi; Zhao, Qianchuan; Lu, Wenbo

2015-01-01

Clustered structure of social networks provides the chances of repeated exposures to carriers with similar information. It is commonly believed that the impact of repeated exposures on the spreading of information is nontrivial. Does this effect increase the probability that an individual forwards a message in social networks? If so, to what extent does this effect influence people’s decisions on whether or not to spread information? Based on a large-scale microblogging data set, which logs the message spreading processes and users’ forwarding activities, we conduct a data-driven analysis to explore the answer to the above questions. The results show that an overwhelming majority of message samples are more probable to be forwarded under repeated exposures, compared to those under only a single exposure. For those message samples that cover various topics, we observe a relatively fixed, topic-independent multiplier of the willingness of spreading when repeated exposures occur, regardless of the differences in network structure. We believe that this finding reflects average people’s intrinsic psychological gain under repeated stimuli. Hence, it makes sense that the gain is associated with personal response behavior, rather than network structure. Moreover, we find that the gain is robust against the change of message popularity. This finding supports that there exists a relatively fixed gain brought by repeated exposures. Based on the above findings, we propose a parsimonious model to predict the saturated numbers of forwarding activities of messages. Our work could contribute to better understandings of behavioral psychology and social media analytics. PMID:26465749

Optimal control strategy for a novel computer virus propagation model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chunming; Huang, Haitao

2016-06-01

This paper aims to study the combined impact of reinstalling system and network topology on the spread of computer viruses over the Internet. Based on scale-free network, this paper proposes a novel computer viruses propagation model-SLBOSmodel. A systematic analysis of this new model shows that the virus-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when its spreading threshold is less than one; nevertheless, it is proved that the viral equilibrium is permanent if the spreading threshold is greater than one. Then, the impacts of different model parameters on spreading threshold are analyzed. Next, an optimally controlled SLBOS epidemic model on complex networks is also studied. We prove that there is an optimal control existing for the control problem. Some numerical simulations are finally given to illustrate the main results.

Impact of droplet on superheated surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohse, Detlef; Staat, Hendrik J. J.; Tran, Tuan; Prosperetti, Andrea; Sun, Chao

2012-11-01

At impact of a liquid droplet on a smooth surface heated way above the liquid's boiling point, the droplet spreads without any surface contact, floating on its own (Leidenfrost-type) vapor layer, and then bounces back. We show that the dimensionless maximum spreading factor Γ, defined by the ratio of the maximal spreading diameter and the droplet diameter, shows a universal scaling Γ ~ Weγ with the Weber number We - regardless of surface temperature and of liquid properties - which is much steeper than that for the impact on non-heated (hydrophilic or hydrophobic) surfaces, for which γ = 1 / 4 . Based on the idea that the vapor shooting out of the gap between the droplet and the superheated surface drags the liquid outwards, we derive scaling laws for the spreading factor Γ, the vapor layer thickness, and the vapor flow velocity.

Velocity and Hierarchical Spread of Epidemic Outbreaks in Scale-Free Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2004-04-01

We study the effect of the connectivity pattern of complex networks on the propagation dynamics of epidemics. The growth time scale of outbreaks is inversely proportional to the network degree fluctuations, signaling that epidemics spread almost instantaneously in networks with scale-free degree distributions. This feature is associated with an epidemic propagation that follows a precise hierarchical dynamics. Once the highly connected hubs are reached, the infection pervades the network in a progressive cascade across smaller degree classes. The present results are relevant for the development of adaptive containment strategies.

Effect of Longitudinal Oscillations on Downward Flame Spread over Thin Solid Fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nayagam, Vedha; Sacksteder, Kurt

2013-01-01

Downward flame spread rates over vertically vibrated thin fuel samples are measured in air at one atmospheric pressure under normal gravity. Unlike flame spread against forced-convective flows, the present results show that with increasing vibration acceleration the flame spread rate increases before being blown off at high acceleration levels causing flame extinction. A simple scaling analysis seems to explain this phenomenon, which may have important implications to flammability studies including in microgravity environments.

Enhanced heat transfer is dependent on thickness of graphene films: the heat dissipation during boiling

PubMed Central

Ahn, Ho Seon; Kim, Jin Man; Kim, TaeJoo; Park, Su Cheong; Kim, Ji Min; Park, Youngjae; Yu, Dong In; Hwang, Kyoung Won; Jo, HangJin; Park, Hyun Sun; Kim, Hyungdae; Kim, Moo Hwan

2014-01-01

Boiling heat transfer (BHT) is a particularly efficient heat transport method because of the latent heat associated with the process. However, the efficiency of BHT decreases significantly with increasing wall temperature when the critical heat flux (CHF) is reached. Graphene has received much recent research attention for applications in thermal engineering due to its large thermal conductivity. In this study, graphene films of various thicknesses were deposited on a heated surface, and enhancements of BHT and CHF were investigated via pool-boiling experiments. In contrast to the well-known surface effects, including improved wettability and liquid spreading due to micron- and nanometer-scale structures, nanometer-scale folded edges of graphene films provided a clue of BHT improvement and only the thermal conductivity of the graphene layer could explain the dependence of the CHF on the thickness. The large thermal conductivity of the graphene films inhibited the formation of hot spots, thereby increasing the CHF. Finally, the provided empirical model could be suitable for prediction of CHF. PMID:25182076

Reliable and efficient solution of genome-scale models of Metabolism and macromolecular Expression

DOE PAGES

Ma, Ding; Yang, Laurence; Fleming, Ronan M. T.; ...

2017-01-18

Currently, Constraint-Based Reconstruction and Analysis (COBRA) is the only methodology that permits integrated modeling of Metabolism and macromolecular Expression (ME) at genome-scale. Linear optimization computes steady-state flux solutions to ME models, but flux values are spread over many orders of magnitude. Data values also have greatly varying magnitudes. Furthermore, standard double-precision solvers may return inaccurate solutions or report that no solution exists. Exact simplex solvers based on rational arithmetic require a near-optimal warm start to be practical on large problems (current ME models have 70,000 constraints and variables and will grow larger). We also developed a quadrupleprecision version of ourmore » linear and nonlinear optimizer MINOS, and a solution procedure (DQQ) involving Double and Quad MINOS that achieves reliability and efficiency for ME models and other challenging problems tested here. DQQ will enable extensive use of large linear and nonlinear models in systems biology and other applications involving multiscale data.« less

Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel.

PubMed

Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C

2015-05-01

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect.

Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel

PubMed Central

Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.

2015-01-01

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect. PMID:26190905

Rucio, the next-generation Data Management system in ATLAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serfon, C.; Barisits, M.; Beermann, T.; Garonne, V.; Goossens, L.; Lassnig, M.; Nairz, A.; Vigne, R.; ATLAS Collaboration

2016-04-01

Rucio is the next-generation of Distributed Data Management (DDM) system benefiting from recent advances in cloud and ;Big Data; computing to address HEP experiments scaling requirements. Rucio is an evolution of the ATLAS DDM system Don Quixote 2 (DQ2), which has demonstrated very large scale data management capabilities with more than 160 petabytes spread worldwide across 130 sites, and accesses from 1,000 active users. However, DQ2 is reaching its limits in terms of scalability, requiring a large number of support staff to operate and being hard to extend with new technologies. Rucio addresses these issues by relying on new technologies to ensure system scalability, cover new user requirements and employ new automation framework to reduce operational overheads. This paper shows the key concepts of Rucio, details the Rucio design, and the technology it employs, the tests that were conducted to validate it and finally describes the migration steps that were conducted to move from DQ2 to Rucio.

Activity flow over resting-state networks shapes cognitive task activations.

PubMed

Cole, Michael W; Ito, Takuya; Bassett, Danielle S; Schultz, Douglas H

2016-12-01

Resting-state functional connectivity (FC) has helped reveal the intrinsic network organization of the human brain, yet its relevance to cognitive task activations has been unclear. Uncertainty remains despite evidence that resting-state FC patterns are highly similar to cognitive task activation patterns. Identifying the distributed processes that shape localized cognitive task activations may help reveal why resting-state FC is so strongly related to cognitive task activations. We found that estimating task-evoked activity flow (the spread of activation amplitudes) over resting-state FC networks allowed prediction of cognitive task activations in a large-scale neural network model. Applying this insight to empirical functional MRI data, we found that cognitive task activations can be predicted in held-out brain regions (and held-out individuals) via estimated activity flow over resting-state FC networks. This suggests that task-evoked activity flow over intrinsic networks is a large-scale mechanism explaining the relevance of resting-state FC to cognitive task activations.

Activity flow over resting-state networks shapes cognitive task activations

PubMed Central

Cole, Michael W.; Ito, Takuya; Bassett, Danielle S.; Schultz, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Resting-state functional connectivity (FC) has helped reveal the intrinsic network organization of the human brain, yet its relevance to cognitive task activations has been unclear. Uncertainty remains despite evidence that resting-state FC patterns are highly similar to cognitive task activation patterns. Identifying the distributed processes that shape localized cognitive task activations may help reveal why resting-state FC is so strongly related to cognitive task activations. We found that estimating task-evoked activity flow (the spread of activation amplitudes) over resting-state FC networks allows prediction of cognitive task activations in a large-scale neural network model. Applying this insight to empirical functional MRI data, we found that cognitive task activations can be predicted in held-out brain regions (and held-out individuals) via estimated activity flow over resting-state FC networks. This suggests that task-evoked activity flow over intrinsic networks is a large-scale mechanism explaining the relevance of resting-state FC to cognitive task activations. PMID:27723746

Distributed 3D Information Visualization - Towards Integration of the Dynamic 3D Graphics and Web Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vucinic, Dean; Deen, Danny; Oanta, Emil; Batarilo, Zvonimir; Lacor, Chris

This paper focuses on visualization and manipulation of graphical content in distributed network environments. The developed graphical middleware and 3D desktop prototypes were specialized for situational awareness. This research was done in the LArge Scale COllaborative decision support Technology (LASCOT) project, which explored and combined software technologies to support human-centred decision support system for crisis management (earthquake, tsunami, flooding, airplane or oil-tanker incidents, chemical, radio-active or other pollutants spreading, etc.). The performed state-of-the-art review did not identify any publicly available large scale distributed application of this kind. Existing proprietary solutions rely on the conventional technologies and 2D representations. Our challenge was to apply the "latest" available technologies, such Java3D, X3D and SOAP, compatible with average computer graphics hardware. The selected technologies are integrated and we demonstrate: the flow of data, which originates from heterogeneous data sources; interoperability across different operating systems and 3D visual representations to enhance the end-users interactions.

Reliable and efficient solution of genome-scale models of Metabolism and macromolecular Expression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Ding; Yang, Laurence; Fleming, Ronan M. T.

Currently, Constraint-Based Reconstruction and Analysis (COBRA) is the only methodology that permits integrated modeling of Metabolism and macromolecular Expression (ME) at genome-scale. Linear optimization computes steady-state flux solutions to ME models, but flux values are spread over many orders of magnitude. Data values also have greatly varying magnitudes. Furthermore, standard double-precision solvers may return inaccurate solutions or report that no solution exists. Exact simplex solvers based on rational arithmetic require a near-optimal warm start to be practical on large problems (current ME models have 70,000 constraints and variables and will grow larger). We also developed a quadrupleprecision version of ourmore » linear and nonlinear optimizer MINOS, and a solution procedure (DQQ) involving Double and Quad MINOS that achieves reliability and efficiency for ME models and other challenging problems tested here. DQQ will enable extensive use of large linear and nonlinear models in systems biology and other applications involving multiscale data.« less

Solving the shrinkage-induced PDMS alignment registration issue in multilayer soft lithography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moraes, Christopher; Sun, Yu; Simmons, Craig A.

2009-06-01

Shrinkage of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) complicates alignment registration between layers during multilayer soft lithography fabrication. This often hinders the development of large-scale microfabricated arrayed devices. Here we report a rapid method to construct large-area, multilayered devices with stringent alignment requirements. This technique, which exploits a previously unrecognized aspect of sandwich mold fabrication, improves device yield, enables highly accurate alignment over large areas of multilayered devices and does not require strict regulation of fabrication conditions or extensive calibration processes. To demonstrate this technique, a microfabricated Braille display was developed and characterized. High device yield and accurate alignment within 15 µm were achieved over three layers for an array of 108 Braille units spread over a 6.5 cm2 area, demonstrating the fabrication of well-aligned devices with greater ease and efficiency than previously possible.

Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

2016-10-01

Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

Global efficiency of local immunization on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Allard, Antoine; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Dubé, Louis J.

2013-07-01

Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large databases and efficient analysis algorithms, these processes can be better predicted and controlled. In this study, we use different characteristics of network organization to identify the influential spreaders in 17 empirical networks of diverse nature using 2 epidemic models. We find that a judicious choice of local measures, based either on the network's connectivity at a microscopic scale or on its community structure at a mesoscopic scale, compares favorably to global measures, such as betweenness centrality, in terms of efficiency, practicality and robustness. We also develop an analytical framework that highlights a transition in the characteristic scale of different epidemic regimes. This allows to decide which local measure should govern immunization in a given scenario.

Global efficiency of local immunization on complex networks.

PubMed

Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Allard, Antoine; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Dubé, Louis J

2013-01-01

Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large databases and efficient analysis algorithms, these processes can be better predicted and controlled. In this study, we use different characteristics of network organization to identify the influential spreaders in 17 empirical networks of diverse nature using 2 epidemic models. We find that a judicious choice of local measures, based either on the network's connectivity at a microscopic scale or on its community structure at a mesoscopic scale, compares favorably to global measures, such as betweenness centrality, in terms of efficiency, practicality and robustness. We also develop an analytical framework that highlights a transition in the characteristic scale of different epidemic regimes. This allows to decide which local measure should govern immunization in a given scenario.

Climate Drivers of Alaska Summer Stream Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieniek, P.; Bhatt, U. S.; Plumb, E. W.; Thoman, R.; Trammell, E. J.

2016-12-01

The temperature of the water in lakes, rivers and streams has wide ranging impacts from local water quality and fish habitats to global climate change. Salmon fisheries in Alaska, a critical source of food in many subsistence communities, are sensitive to large-scale climate variability and river and stream temperatures have also been linked with salmon production in Alaska. Given current and projected climate change, understanding the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate and river and stream temperatures is essential to better understand the changes that may occur with aquatic life in Alaska's waterways on which subsistence users depend. An analysis of Alaska stream temperatures in the context of reanalysis, downscaled, station and other climate data is undertaken in this study to fill that need. Preliminary analysis identified eight stream observation sites with sufficiently long (>15 years) data available for climate-scale analysis in Alaska with one station, Terror Creek in Kodiak, having a 30-year record. Cross-correlation of summer (June-August) water temperatures between the stations are generally high even though they are spread over a large geographic region. Correlation analysis of the Terror Creek summer observations with seasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Pacific broadly resembles the SST anomaly fields typically associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A similar result was found for the remaining stations and in both cases PDO-like correlation patterns also occurred in the preceding spring. These preliminary results demonstrate that there is potential to diagnose the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate system and Alaska stream temperatures.

Designing fire safe interiors.

PubMed

Belles, D W

1992-01-01

Any product that causes a fire to grow large is deficient in fire safety performance. A large fire in any building represents a serious hazard. Multiple-death fires almost always are linked to fires that grow quickly to a large size. Interior finishes have large, continuous surfaces over which fire can spread. They are regulated to slow initial fire growth, and must be qualified for use on the basis of fire tests. To obtain meaningful results, specimens must be representative of actual installation. Variables--such as the substrate, the adhesive, and product thickness and density--can affect product performance. The tunnel test may not adequately evaluate some products, such as foam plastics or textile wall coverings, thermoplastic materials, or materials of minimal mass. Where questions exist, products should be evaluated on a full-scale basis. Curtains and draperies are examples of products that ignite easily and spread flames readily. The present method for testing curtains and draperies evaluates one fabric at a time. Although a fabric tested alone may perform well, fabrics that meet test standards individually sometimes perform poorly when tested in combination. Contents and furnishings constitute the major fuels in many fires. Contents may involve paper products and other lightweight materials that are easily ignited and capable of fast fire growth. Similarly, a small source may ignite many items of furniture that are capable of sustained fire growth. Upholstered furniture can reach peak burning rates in less than 5 minutes. Furnishings have been associated with many multiple-death fires.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The relationship between oceanic transform fault segmentation, seismicity, and thermal structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfson-Schwehr, Monica

Mid-ocean ridge transform faults (RTFs) are typically viewed as geometrically simple, with fault lengths readily constrained by the ridge-transform intersections. This relative simplicity, combined with well-constrained slip rates, make them an ideal environment for studying strike-slip earthquake behavior. As the resolution of available bathymetric data over oceanic transform faults continues to improve, however, it is being revealed that the geometry and structure of these faults can be complex, including such features as intra-transform pull-apart basins, intra-transform spreading centers, and cross-transform ridges. To better determine the resolution of structural complexity on RTFs, as well as the prevalence of RTF segmentation, fault structure is delineated on a global scale. Segmentation breaks the fault system up into a series of subparallel fault strands separated by an extensional basin, intra-transform spreading center, or fault step. RTF segmentation occurs across the full range of spreading rates, from faults on the ultraslow portion of the Southwest Indian Ridge to faults on the ultrafast portion of the East Pacific Rise (EPR). It is most prevalent along the EPR, which hosts the fastest spreading rates in the world and has undergone multiple changes in relative plate motion over the last couple of million years. Earthquakes on RTFs are known to be small, to scale with the area above the 600°C isotherm, and to exhibit some of the most predictable behaviors in seismology. In order to determine whether segmentation affects the global RTF scaling relations, the scalings are recomputed using an updated seismic catalog and fault database in which RTF systems are broken up according to their degree of segmentation (as delineated from available bathymetric datasets). No statistically significant differences between the new computed scaling relations and the current scaling relations were found, though a few faults were identified as outliers. Finite element analysis is used to model 3-D RTF fault geometry assuming a viscoplastic rheology in order to determine how segmentation affects the underlying thermal structure of the fault. In the models, fault segment length, length and location along fault of the intra-transform spreading center, and slip rate are varied. A new scaling relation is developed for the critical fault offset length (OC) that significantly reduces the thermal area of adjacent fault segments, such that adjacent segments are fully decoupled at ~4 OC . On moderate to fast slipping RTFs, offsets ≥ 5 km are sufficient to significantly reduce the thermal influence between two adjacent transform fault segments. The relationship between fault structure and seismic behavior was directly addressed on the Discovery transform fault, located at 4°S on the East Pacific Rise. One year of microseismicity recorded on an OBS array, and 24 years of Mw ≥ 5.4 earthquakes obtained from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog, were correlated with surface fault structure delineated from high-resolution multibeam bathymetry. Each of the 15 Mw ≥ 5.4 earthquakes was relocated into one of five distinct repeating rupture patches, while microseismicity was found to be reduced within these patches. While the endpoints of these patches appeared to correlate with structural features on the western segment of Discovery, small step-overs in the primary fault trace were not observed at patch boundaries. This indicates that physical segmentation of the fault is not the primary control on the size and location of large earthquakes on Discovery, and that along-strike heterogeneity in fault zone properties must play an important role.

Coupling effects on turning points of infectious diseases epidemics in scale-free networks.

PubMed

Kim, Kiseong; Lee, Sangyeon; Lee, Doheon; Lee, Kwang Hyung

2017-05-31

Pandemic is a typical spreading phenomenon that can be observed in the human society and is dependent on the structure of the social network. The Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model describes spreading phenomena using two spreading factors; contagiousness (β) and recovery rate (γ). Some network models are trying to reflect the social network, but the real structure is difficult to uncover. We have developed a spreading phenomenon simulator that can input the epidemic parameters and network parameters and performed the experiment of disease propagation. The simulation result was analyzed to construct a new marker VRTP distribution. We also induced the VRTP formula for three of the network mathematical models. We suggest new marker VRTP (value of recovered on turning point) to describe the coupling between the SIR spreading and the Scale-free (SF) network and observe the aspects of the coupling effects with the various of spreading and network parameters. We also derive the analytic formulation of VRTP in the fully mixed model, the configuration model, and the degree-based model respectively in the mathematical function form for the insights on the relationship between experimental simulation and theoretical consideration. We discover the coupling effect between SIR spreading and SF network through devising novel marker VRTP which reflects the shifting effect and relates to entropy.

Analytical model of flame spread in full-scale room/corner tests (ISO9705)

Treesearch

Mark Dietenberger; Ondrej Grexa

1999-01-01

A physical, yet analytical, model of fire growth has predicted flame spread and rate of heat release (RHR) for an ISO9705 test scenario using bench-scale data from the cone calorimeter. The test scenario simulated was the propane ignition burner at the comer with a 100/300 kW program and the specimen lined on the walls only. Four phases of fire growth were simulated....

Statistical Modelling and Characterization of Experimental mm-Wave Indoor Channels for Future 5G Wireless Communication Networks

PubMed Central

Al-Samman, A. M.; Rahman, T. A.; Azmi, M. H.; Hindia, M. N.; Khan, I.; Hanafi, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents an experimental characterization of millimeter-wave (mm-wave) channels in the 6.5 GHz, 10.5 GHz, 15 GHz, 19 GHz, 28 GHz and 38 GHz frequency bands in an indoor corridor environment. More than 4,000 power delay profiles were measured across the bands using an omnidirectional transmitter antenna and a highly directional horn receiver antenna for both co- and cross-polarized antenna configurations. This paper develops a new path-loss model to account for the frequency attenuation with distance, which we term the frequency attenuation (FA) path-loss model and introduce a frequency-dependent attenuation factor. The large-scale path loss was characterized based on both new and well-known path-loss models. A general and less complex method is also proposed to estimate the cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) factor of close-in reference distance with the XPD (CIX) and ABG with the XPD (ABGX) path-loss models to avoid the computational complexity of minimum mean square error (MMSE) approach. Moreover, small-scale parameters such as root mean square (RMS) delay spread, mean excess (MN-EX) delay, dispersion factors and maximum excess (MAX-EX) delay parameters were used to characterize the multipath channel dispersion. Multiple statistical distributions for RMS delay spread were also investigated. The results show that our proposed models are simpler and more physically-based than other well-known models. The path-loss exponents for all studied models are smaller than that of the free-space model by values in the range of 0.1 to 1.4 for all measured frequencies. The RMS delay spread values varied between 0.2 ns and 13.8 ns, and the dispersion factor values were less than 1 for all measured frequencies. The exponential and Weibull probability distribution models best fit the RMS delay spread empirical distribution for all of the measured frequencies in all scenarios. PMID:27654703

Statistical Modelling and Characterization of Experimental mm-Wave Indoor Channels for Future 5G Wireless Communication Networks.

PubMed

Al-Samman, A M; Rahman, T A; Azmi, M H; Hindia, M N; Khan, I; Hanafi, E

This paper presents an experimental characterization of millimeter-wave (mm-wave) channels in the 6.5 GHz, 10.5 GHz, 15 GHz, 19 GHz, 28 GHz and 38 GHz frequency bands in an indoor corridor environment. More than 4,000 power delay profiles were measured across the bands using an omnidirectional transmitter antenna and a highly directional horn receiver antenna for both co- and cross-polarized antenna configurations. This paper develops a new path-loss model to account for the frequency attenuation with distance, which we term the frequency attenuation (FA) path-loss model and introduce a frequency-dependent attenuation factor. The large-scale path loss was characterized based on both new and well-known path-loss models. A general and less complex method is also proposed to estimate the cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) factor of close-in reference distance with the XPD (CIX) and ABG with the XPD (ABGX) path-loss models to avoid the computational complexity of minimum mean square error (MMSE) approach. Moreover, small-scale parameters such as root mean square (RMS) delay spread, mean excess (MN-EX) delay, dispersion factors and maximum excess (MAX-EX) delay parameters were used to characterize the multipath channel dispersion. Multiple statistical distributions for RMS delay spread were also investigated. The results show that our proposed models are simpler and more physically-based than other well-known models. The path-loss exponents for all studied models are smaller than that of the free-space model by values in the range of 0.1 to 1.4 for all measured frequencies. The RMS delay spread values varied between 0.2 ns and 13.8 ns, and the dispersion factor values were less than 1 for all measured frequencies. The exponential and Weibull probability distribution models best fit the RMS delay spread empirical distribution for all of the measured frequencies in all scenarios.

The Imaging Properties of a Silicon Wafer X-Ray Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joy, M. K.; Kolodziejczak, J. J.; Weisskopf, M. C.; Fair, S.; Ramsey, B. D.

1994-01-01

Silicon wafers have excellent optical properties --- low microroughness and good medium-scale flatness --- which Make them suitable candidates for inexpensive flat-plate grazing-incidence x-ray mirrors. On short spatial scales (less than 3 mm) the surface quality of silicon wafers rivals that expected of the Advanced X-Ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF) high-resolution optics. On larger spatial scales, however, performance may be degraded by the departure from flatness of the wafer and by distortions induced by the mounting scheme. In order to investigate such effects, we designed and constructed a prototype silicon-wafer x-ray telescope. The device was then tested in both visible light and x rays. The telescope module consists of 94 150-mm-diameter wafers, densely packed into the first stage of a Kirkpatrick-Baez configuration. X-ray tests at three energies (4.5, 6.4, and 8.0 keV) showed an energy-independent line spread function with full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 150 arcseconds, dominated by deviations from large-scale flatness.

Uncertainties in TRMM-Era multisatellite-based tropical rainfall estimates over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauniyar, S. P.; Protat, A.; Kanamori, H.

2017-05-01

This study investigates the regional and seasonal rainfall rate retrieval uncertainties within nine state-of-the-art satellite-based rainfall products over the Maritime Continent (MC) region. The results show consistently larger differences in mean daily rainfall among products over land, especially over mountains and along coasts, compared to over ocean, by about 20% for low to medium rain rates and 5% for heavy rain rates. However, rainfall differences among the products do not exhibit any seasonal dependency over both surface types (land and ocean) of the MC region. The differences between products largely depends on the rain rate itself, with a factor 2 difference for light rain and 30% for intermediate and high rain rates over ocean. The rain-rate products dominated by microwave measurements showed less spread among themselves over ocean compared to the products dominated by infrared measurements. Conversely, over land, the rain gauge-adjusted post-real-time products dominated by microwave measurements produced the largest spreads, due to the usage of different gauge analyses for the bias corrections. Intercomparisons of rainfall characteristics of these products revealed large discrepancies in detecting the frequency and intensity of rainfall. These satellite products are finally evaluated at subdaily, daily, monthly, intraseasonal, and seasonal temporal scales against high-quality gridded rainfall observations in the Sarawak (Malaysia) region for the 4 year period 2000-2003. No single satellite-based rainfall product clearly outperforms the other products at all temporal scales. General guidelines are provided for selecting a product that could be best suited for a particular application and/or temporal resolution.

A study of flame spread in engineered cardboard fuelbeds: Part I: Correlations and observations

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Jason Forthofer; Isaac C. Grenfell; Brittany A. Adam; Nelson K. Akafuah; Kozo Saito

2013-01-01

Wind tunnel laboratory fires spreading through laser-cut cardboard fuel beds were instrumented and analyzed for physical processes associated with spread. Flames in the span-wise direction appeared as a regular series of peaks-and-troughs that scaled directly with flame length. Flame structure in the stream-wise direction fluctuated with the forward advection of...

Influences of coupled fire-atmosphere interaction on wildfire behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linn, R.; Winterkamp, J.; Jonko, A. K.; Runde, I.; Canfield, J.; Parsons, R.; Sieg, C.

2017-12-01

Two-way interactions between fire and the environment affect fire behavior at scales ranging from buoyancy-induced mixing and turbulence to fire-scale circulations that retard or increase fire spread. Advances in computing have created new opportunities for the exploration of coupled fire-atmosphere behavior using numerical models that represent interactions between the dominant processes driving wildfire behavior, including convective and radiative heat transfer, aerodynamic drag and buoyant response of the atmosphere to heat released by the fire. Such models are not practical for operational, faster-than-real-time fire prediction due to their computational and data requirements. However, they are valuable tools for exploring influences of fire-atmosphere feedbacks on fire behavior as they explicitly simulate atmospheric motions surrounding fires from meter to kilometer scales. We use the coupled fire-atmosphere model FIRETEC to gain new insights into aspects of fire behavior that have been observed in the field and laboratory, to carry out sensitivity analysis that is impractical through observations and to pose new hypotheses that can be tested experimentally. Specifically, we use FIRETEC to study the following multi-scale coupled fire-atmosphere interactions: 1) 3D fire-atmosphere interaction that dictates multi-scale fire line dynamics; 2) influence of vegetation heterogeneity and variability in wind fields on predictability of fire spread; 3) fundamental impacts of topography on fire spread. These numerical studies support new conceptual models for the dominant roles of multi-scale fluid dynamics in determining fire spread, including the roles of crosswind fire line-intensity variations on heat transfer to unburned fuels and the role of fire line depth expansion in upslope acceleration of fires.

Magnetorotational Dynamo Action in the Shearing Box

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Justin; Boldyrev, Stanislav

2017-10-01

Magnetic dynamo action caused by the magnetorotational instability is studied in the shearing-box approximation with no imposed net magnetic flux. Consistent with recent studies, the dynamo action is found to be sensitive to the aspect ratio of the box: it is much easier to obtain in tall boxes (stretched in the direction normal to the disk plane) than in long boxes (stretched in the radial direction). Our direct numerical simulations indicate that the dynamo is possible in both cases, given a large enough magnetic Reynolds number. To explain the relatively larger effort required to obtain the dynamo action in a long box, we propose that the turbulent eddies caused by the instability most efficiently fold and mix the magnetic field lines in the radial direction. As a result, in the long box the scale of the generated strong azimuthal (stream-wise directed) magnetic field is always comparable to the scale of the turbulent eddies. In contrast, in the tall box the azimuthal magnetic flux spreads in the vertical direction over a distance exceeding the scale of the turbulent eddies. As a result, different vertical sections of the tall box are permeated by large-scale nonzero azimuthal magnetic fluxes, facilitating the instability. NSF AGS-1261659, Vilas Associates Award, NSF-Teragrid Project TG-PHY110016.

On the spread of changes in marine low cloud cover in climate model simulations of the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; Caldwell, Peter M.

2014-05-01

In 36 climate change simulations associated with phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), changes in marine low cloud cover (LCC) exhibit a large spread, and may be either positive or negative. Here we develop a heuristic model to understand the source of the spread. The model's premise is that simulated LCC changes can be interpreted as a linear combination of contributions from factors shaping the clouds' large-scale environment. We focus primarily on two factors—the strength of the inversion capping the atmospheric boundary layer (measured by the estimated inversion strength, EIS) and sea surface temperature (SST). For a given global model, the respective contributions of EIS and SST are computed. This is done by multiplying (1) the current-climate's sensitivity of LCC to EIS or SST variations, by (2) the climate-change signal in EIS or SST. The remaining LCC changes are then attributed to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and other environmental factors. The heuristic model is remarkably skillful. Its SST term dominates, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the intermodel variance of LCC changes in CMIP3 models, and about half in CMIP5 models. Of the two factors governing the SST term (the SST increase and the sensitivity of LCC to SST perturbations), the SST sensitivity drives the spread in the SST term and hence the spread in the overall LCC changes. This sensitivity varies a great deal from model to model and is strongly linked to the types of cloud and boundary layer parameterizations used in the models. EIS and SST sensitivities are also estimated using observational cloud and meteorological data. The observed sensitivities are generally consistent with the majority of models as well as expectations from prior research. Based on the observed sensitivities and the relative magnitudes of simulated EIS and SST changes (which we argue are also physically reasonable), the heuristic model predicts LCC will decrease over the 21st-century. However, to place a strong constraint, for example on the magnitude of the LCC decrease, will require longer observational records and a careful assessment of other environmental factors producing LCC changes. Meanwhile, addressing biases in simulated EIS and SST sensitivities will clearly be an important step towards reducing intermodel spread in simulated LCC changes.

One-Hundred-km-Scale Basins on Enceladus: Evidence for an Active Ice Shell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schenk, Paul M.; McKinnon, William B.

2009-01-01

Stereo-derived topographic mapping of 50% of Enceladus reveals at least 6 large-scale, ovoid depressions (basins) 90-175 km across and 800-to-1500 m deep and uncorrelated with geologic boundaries. Their shape and scale are inconsistent with impact, geoid deflection, or with dynamically supported topography. Isostatic thinning of Enceladus ice shell associated with upwellings (and tidally-driven ice melting) can plausibly account for the basins. Thinning implies upwarping of the base of the shell of 10-20 km beneath the depressions, depending on total shell thickness; loss of near-surface porosity due to enhanced heat flow may also contribute to basin lows. Alternatively, the basins may overly cold, inactive, and hence denser ice, but thermal isostasy alone requires thermal expansion more consistent with clathrate hydrate than water ice. In contrast to the basins, the south polar depression (SPD) is larger (350 wide) and shallower (0.4-to-0.8 km deep) and correlates with the area of tectonic deformation and active resurfacing. The SPD also differs in that the floor is relatively flat (i.e., conforms roughly to the global triaxial shape, or geoid) with broad, gently sloping flanks. The relative flatness across the SPD suggests that it is in or near isostatic equilibrium, and underlain by denser material, supporting the polar sea hypothesis of Collins and Goodman. Near flatness is also predicted by a crustal spreading origin for the "tiger stripes (McKinnon and Barr 2007, Barr 2008); the extraordinary, high CIRS heat flows imply half-spreading rates in excess of 10 cm/yr, a very young surface age (250,000 yr), and a rather thin lithosphere (hence modest thermal topography). Topographic rises in places along the outer margin of the SPD correlate with parallel ridges and deformation along the edge of the resurfaced terrain, consistent with a compressional, imbricate thrust origin for these ridges, driven by the spreading.

Low and Mid-Latitude Ionospheric Irregularities Studies Using TEC and Radio Scintillation Data from the CITRIS Radio Beacon Receiver in Low-Earth-Orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siefring, C. L.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Huba, J.; Krall, J.; Roddy, P. A.

2009-12-01

Unique data on ionospheric plasma irregularities from the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) CITRIS (Scintillation and TEC Receiver in Space) instrument will be presented. CITRIS is a multi-band receiver that recorded TEC (Total Electron Content) and radio scintillations from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) on STPSat1. The 555+/5 km altitude 35° inclination orbit covers low and mid-latitudes. The measurements require propagation from a transmitter to a receiver through the F-region plasma. CITRIS used both 1) satellite beacons in LEO, such as the NRL CERTO (Coherent Electromagnetic Radio TOmography) beacons and 2) the global network of ground-based DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) beacons. The TEC measurements allow for tracking of ionospheric disturbances and irregularities while the measurements of scintillations can simultaneously characterize their effects. CITRIS was operated in a complementary fashion with the C/NOFS (Communication/Navigations Outages Forecasting System) satellite during most of its first year of operations. C/NOFS carries a three-frequency 150/400/1067 MHz CERTO beacon and is dedicated to the study of Spread-F. In the case of Spread-F, ionospheric irregularities start with large scale size density gradients (100s of km) and cascade through complex processes to short scale sizes (10s of meters). It is typically the 100m-1km scale features that harm communication and navigation systems through scintillations. A multi-sensor approach is needed to completely understand this complex system, such as, the combination of CITRIS remote radio sensing and C/NOFS in-situ data. Several types of irregularities have been studied including Spread-F and the newly discovered dawn-side depletions. Comparisons with the physics based SAMI3 model are being performed to help our understanding of the morphology of the irregularities.

Dynamics of liquid spreading on solid surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalliadasis, S.; Chang, H.C.

1996-09-01

Using simple scaling arguments and a precursor film model, the authors show that the appropriate macroscopic contact angle {theta} during the slow spreading of a completely or partially wetting liquid under conditions of viscous flow and small slopes should be described by tan {theta} = [tan{sup 3} {theta}{sub e} {minus} 9 log {eta}Ca]{sup 1/3} where {theta}{sub e} is the static contact angle, Ca is the capillary number, and {eta} is a scaled Hamaker constant. Using this simple relation as a boundary condition, the authors are able to quantitatively model, without any empirical parameter, the spreading dynamics of several classical spreadingmore » phenomena (capillary rise, sessile, and pendant drop spreading) by simply equating the slope of the leading order static bulk region to the dynamic contact angle boundary condition without performing a matched asymptotic analysis for each case independently as is usually done in the literature.« less

Inefficient epidemic spreading in scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccardi, Carlo; Casagrandi, Renato

2008-02-01

Highly heterogeneous degree distributions yield efficient spreading of simple epidemics through networks, but can be inefficient with more complex epidemiological processes. We study diseases with nonlinear force of infection whose prevalences can abruptly collapse to zero while decreasing the transmission parameters. We find that scale-free networks can be unable to support diseases that, on the contrary, are able to persist at high endemic levels in homogeneous networks with the same average degree.

Ion acceleration in electrostatic collisionless shock: on the optimal density profile for quasi-monoenergetic beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boella, E.; Fiúza, F.; Stockem Novo, A.; Fonseca, R.; Silva, L. O.

2018-03-01

A numerical study on ion acceleration in electrostatic shock waves is presented, with the aim of determining the best plasma configuration to achieve quasi-monoenergetic ion beams in laser-driven systems. It was recently shown that tailored near-critical density plasmas characterized by a long-scale decreasing rear density profile lead to beams with low energy spread (Fiúza et al 2012 Phys. Rev. Lett. 109 215001). In this work, a detailed parameter scan investigating different plasma scale lengths is carried out. As result, the optimal plasma spatial scale length that allows for minimizing the energy spread while ensuring a significant reflection of ions by the shock is identified. Furthermore, a new configuration where the required profile has been obtained by coupling micro layers of different densities is proposed. Results show that this new engineered approach is a valid alternative, guaranteeing a low energy spread with a higher level of controllability.

Efficient population-scale variant analysis and prioritization with VAPr.

PubMed

Birmingham, Amanda; Mark, Adam M; Mazzaferro, Carlo; Xu, Guorong; Fisch, Kathleen M

2018-04-06

With the growing availability of population-scale whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing, demand for reproducible, scalable variant analysis has spread within genomic research communities. To address this need, we introduce the Python package VAPr (Variant Analysis and Prioritization). VAPr leverages existing annotation tools ANNOVAR and MyVariant.info with MongoDB-based flexible storage and filtering functionality. It offers biologists and bioinformatics generalists easy-to-use and scalable analysis and prioritization of genomic variants from large cohort studies. VAPr is developed in Python and is available for free use and extension under the MIT License. An install package is available on PyPi at https://pypi.python.org/pypi/VAPr, while source code and extensive documentation are on GitHub at https://github.com/ucsd-ccbb/VAPr. kfisch@ucsd.edu.

Laminar superlayer at the turbulence boundary.

PubMed

Holzner, M; Lüthi, B

2011-04-01

In this Letter we present results from particle tracking velocimetry and direct numerical simulation that are congruent with the existence of a laminar superlayer, as proposed in the pioneering work of Corrsin and Kistler (NACA, Technical Report No. 1244, 1955). We find that the local superlayer velocity is dominated by a viscous component and its magnitude is comparable to the characteristic velocity of the smallest scales of motion. This slow viscous process involves a large surface area so that the global rate of turbulence spreading is set by the largest scales of motion. These findings are important for a better understanding of mixing of mass and momentum in a variety of flows where thin layers of shear exist. Examples are boundary layers, clouds, planetary atmospheres, and oceans. © 2011 American Physical Society

Accounting for spatially heterogeneous conditions in local-scale surveillance strategies: case study of the biosecurity insect pest, grape phylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (Fitch)).

PubMed

Triska, Maggie D; Powell, Kevin S; Collins, Cassandra; Pearce, Inca; Renton, Michael

2018-04-29

Surveillance strategies are often standardized and completed on grid patterns to detect pest incursions quickly; however, it may be possible to improve surveillance through more targeted surveillance that accounts for landscape heterogeneity, dispersal and the habitat requirements of the invading organism. We simulated pest spread at a local-scale, using grape phylloxera (Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (Fitch)) as a case study, and assessed the influence of incorporating spatial heterogeneity into surveillance strategies compared to current, standard surveillance strategies. Time to detection, spread within and spread beyond the vineyard were reduced by conducting surveys that target sampling effort in soil that is highly suitable to the invading pest in comparison to standard surveillance strategies. However, these outcomes were dependent on the virulence level of phylloxera as phylloxera is a complex pest with multiple genotypes that influence spread and detectability. Targeting surveillance strategies based on local-scale spatial heterogeneity can decrease the time to detection without increasing the survey cost and surveillance that targets highly suitable soil is the most efficient strategy for detecting new incursions. Additionally, combining targeted surveillance strategies with buffer zones and hygiene procedures, and updating surveillance strategies as additional species information becomes available, will further decrease the risk of pest spread. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Epidemic Threshold in Structured Scale-Free Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

EguíLuz, VíCtor M.; Klemm, Konstantin

2002-08-01

We analyze the spreading of viruses in scale-free networks with high clustering and degree correlations, as found in the Internet graph. For the susceptible-infected-susceptible model of epidemics the prevalence undergoes a phase transition at a finite threshold of the transmission probability. Comparing with the absence of a finite threshold in networks with purely random wiring, our result suggests that high clustering (modularity) and degree correlations protect scale-free networks against the spreading of viruses. We introduce and verify a quantitative description of the epidemic threshold based on the connectivity of the neighborhoods of the hubs.

Multiscale biomechanics of brain tumours favours cancer invasion by cell softening and tissue stiffening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kas, Josef; Fritsch, Anatol; Grosser, Steffen; Friebe, Sabrina; Reiss-Zimmermann, Martin; Müller, Wolf; Hoffmann, Karl-Titus; Sack, Ingolf

Cancer progression needs two contradictory mechanical prerequisites. For metastasis individual cancer cells or small clusters have to flow through the microenvironment by overcoming the yield stress exerted by the surrounding. On the other hand a tumour has to behave as a solid to permit cell proliferation and spreading of the tumour mass against its surrounding. We determine that the high mechanical adaptability of cancer cells and the scale controlled viscoelastic properties of tissues reconcile both conflicting properties, fluid and solid, simultaneously in brain tumours. We resolve why different techniques that assess cell and tissue mechanics have produced apparently conflicting results by our finding that tumours generate different viscoelastic behaviours on different length scales, which are in concert optimal for tumour spreading and metastasis. Single cancer cells become very soft in their elastic behavior which promotes cell unjamming. On the level of direct cell-to-cell interactions cells feel their micro-environment as rigid elastic substrate that stimulates cancer on the molecular level. All over a tumour has predominately a stiff elastic character in terms of viscoelastic behaviour caused by a solid backbone. Simultaneously, the tumour mass is characterized by a large local variability in the storage and loss modulus that is caused by areas of a more fluid nature.

How deep cells feel: Mean-field Computations and Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buxboim, Amnon; Sen, Shamik; Discher, Dennis E.

2009-03-01

Most cells in solid tissues exert contractile forces that mechanically couple them to elastic surroundings and that significantly influence cell adhesion, cytoskeletal organization and differentiation. However, strains within the depths of matrices are often unclear and are likely relevant to thin matrices, such as basement membranes, relative to cell size as well as to defining how far cells can ``feel.'' We present experimental results for cell spreading on thin, ligand- coated gels and for prestress in stem cells in relation to gel stiffness. Matrix thickness affects cell spread area, focal adhesions and cytoskeleton organization in stem cells, which we will compare to differentiated cells. We introduce a finite element computation to estimate the elastostatic deformations within the matrix on which a cell is placed. Interfacial strains between cell and matrix show large deviations only when soft matrices are a fraction of cell dimensions, proving consistent with experiments. 3-D cell morphologies that model stem cell-derived neurons, myoblasts, and osteoblasts show that a cylinder-shaped myoblast induces the highest strains, consistent with the prominent contractility of muscle. Groups of such cells show a weak crosstalk via matrix strains only when cells are much closer than a cell-width. Cells thus feel on length scales closer to that of adhesions than on cellular scales.

Impact of viscous droplets on different wettable surfaces: Impact phenomena, the maximum spreading factor, spreading time and post-impact oscillation.

PubMed

Lin, Shiji; Zhao, Binyu; Zou, Song; Guo, Jianwei; Wei, Zheng; Chen, Longquan

2018-04-15

In this paper, we experimentally investigated the impact dynamics of different viscous droplets on solid surfaces with diverse wettabilities. We show that the outcome of an impinging droplet is dependent on the physical property of the droplet and the wettability of the surface. Whereas only deposition was observed on lyophilic surfaces, more impact phenomena were identified on lyophobic and superlyophobic surfaces. It was found that none of the existing theoretical models can well describe the maximum spreading factor, revealing the complexity of the droplet impact dynamics and suggesting that more factors need to be considered in the theory. By using the modified capillary-inertial time, which considers the effects of liquid viscosity and surface wettability on droplet spreading, a universal scaling law describing the spreading time was obtained. Finally, we analyzed the post-impact droplet oscillation with the theory for damped harmonic oscillators and interpreted the effects of liquid viscosity and surface wettability on the oscillation by simple scaling analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population Movement and Virus Spreading: HEV Spreading in a Pilgrimage City, Mashhad in Northeast Iran; an Example

PubMed Central

Ahmadi Ghezeldasht, Sanaz; Miri, Rahele; Hedayatimoghadam, Mohamadreza; Shamsian, Aliakbar; Bidkhori, Hamidreza; Fathimoghadam, Fahad; Rezaee, Seyyed Abdorrahim

2013-01-01

Background Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) infection is a significant public health concern and responsible for large outbreaks of acute hepatitis in poor sanitary and living conditions. Objectives To investigate the impact of population movements on virus spreading, a large-scale population-based survey was performed in a pilgrimage- tourism area, the great Mashhad, capital city of Khorasan province. Patients and Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out among 1582 randomly selected individuals from general population of Mashhad, north east of Iran, between May to September 2009. Serum samples were tested for total anti-HEV antibody using a specific enzyme linked immunoassay (ELISA) kit. Results The prevalence of HEV infection was 14.2% (225/1582) with a maximum of 25.5 % (14/55) in densely populated areas. The highest prevalence was observed in visitant areas (≥ 20%) near the holly shrine with crowded hotels and inns. The differences between these areas and other districts were statistically significant (P < 0.001). The findings indicated that 13.2% (95/718) of males and 15.0% (130/864) of females were HEV positive; this difference is not significant. Seroprevalence increases with age rising , from 12.8% in subjects less than five years to 28.6% in individuals with more than 65 years old. Although, there were no meaningful differences between HEV seropositivity and socio-economic status, Illiterate individuals were significantly at higher risk for infection than educated persons (P < 0.001). Conclusions These findings demonstrated that, high prevalence of HEV is related to populated district, which can reach to the highest rate in hotels and inns close to visitants. Traditional sanitation and water supplying systems are the second important factor for the virus transmission. Therefore, it can be concluded that such areas need efficient surveillance systems to prevent the spreading of infectious diseases. PMID:24171006

Diffusion of innovations in Axelrod’s model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilles, Paulo F. C.; Fontanari, José F.

2015-11-01

Axelrod's model for the dissemination of culture contains two key factors required to model the process of diffusion of innovations, namely, social influence (i.e., individuals become more similar when they interact) and homophily (i.e., individuals interact preferentially with similar others). The strength of these social influences are controlled by two parameters: $F$, the number of features that characterizes the cultures and $q$, the common number of states each feature can assume. Here we assume that the innovation is a new state of a cultural feature of a single individual -- the innovator -- and study how the innovation spreads through the networks among the individuals. For infinite regular lattices in one (1D) and two dimensions (2D), we find that initially the successful innovation spreads linearly with the time $t$, but in the long-time limit it spreads diffusively ($\\sim t^{1/2}$) in 1D and sub-diffusively ($\\sim t/\\ln t$) in 2D. For finite lattices, the growth curves for the number of adopters are typically concave functions of $t$. For random graphs with a finite number of nodes $N$, we argue that the classical S-shaped growth curves result from a trade-off between the average connectivity $K$ of the graph and the per feature diversity $q$. A large $q$ is needed to reduce the pace of the initial spreading of the innovation and thus delimit the early-adopters stage, whereas a large $K$ is necessary to ensure the onset of the take-off stage at which the number of adopters grows superlinearly with $t$. In an infinite random graph we find that the number of adopters of a successful innovation scales with $t^\\gamma$ with $\\gamma =1$ for $K> 2$ and $1/2 < \\gamma < 1$ for $K=2$. We suggest that the exponent $\\gamma$ may be a useful index to characterize the process of diffusion of successful innovations in diverse scenarios.

A Battle Lost? Report on Two Centuries of Invasion and Management of Lantana camara L. in Australia, India and South Africa

PubMed Central

Bhagwat, Shonil A.; Breman, Elinor; Thekaekara, Tarsh; Thornton, Thomas F.; Willis, Katherine J.

2012-01-01

Recent discussion on invasive species has invigorated the debate on strategies to manage these species. Lantana camara L., a shrub native to the American tropics, has become one of the worst weeds in recorded history. In Australia, India and South Africa, Lantana has become very widespread occupying millions of hectares of land. Here, we examine historical records to reconstruct invasion and management of Lantana over two centuries and ask: Can we fight the spread of invasive species or do we need to develop strategies for their adaptive management? We carried out extensive research of historical records constituting over 75% of records on invasion and management of this species in the three countries. The records indicate that governments in Australia, India and South Africa have taken aggressive measures to eradicate Lantana over the last two centuries, but these efforts have been largely unsuccessful. We found that despite control measures, the invasion trajectory of Lantana has continued upwards and that post-war land-use change might have been a possible trigger for this spread. A large majority of studies on invasive species address timescales of less than one year; and even fewer address timescales of >10 years. An understanding of species invasions over long time-scales is of paramount importance. While archival records may give only a partial picture of the spread and management of invasive species, in the absence of any other long-term dataset on the ecology of Lantana, our study provides an important insight into its invasion, spread and management over two centuries and across three continents. While the established paradigm is to expend available resources on attempting to eradicate invasive species, our findings suggest that in the future, conservationists will need to develop strategies for their adaptive management rather than fighting a losing battle. PMID:22403653

Assessing the harms of cannabis cultivation in Belgium.

PubMed

Paoli, Letizia; Decorte, Tom; Kersten, Loes

2015-03-01

Since the 1990s, a shift from the importation of foreign cannabis to domestic cultivation has taken place in Belgium, as it has in many other countries. This shift has prompted Belgian policy-making bodies to prioritize the repression of cannabis cultivation. Against this background, the article aims to systematically map and assess for the first time ever the harms associated with cannabis cultivation, covering the whole spectrum of growers. This study is based on a web survey primarily targeting small-scale growers (N=1293) and on three interconnected sets of qualitative data on large-scale growers and traffickers (34 closed criminal proceedings, interviews with 32 criminal justice experts, and with 17 large-scale cannabis growers and three traffickers). The study relied on Greenfield and Paoli's (2013) harm assessment framework to identify the harms associated with cannabis cultivation and to assess the incidence, severity and causes of such harms. Cannabis cultivation has become endemic in Belgium. Despite that, it generates, for Belgium, limited harms of medium-low or medium priority. Large-scale growers tend to produce more harms than the small-scale ones. Virtually all the harms associated with cannabis cultivation are the result of the current criminalizing policies. Given the spread of cannabis cultivation and Belgium's position in Europe, reducing the supply of cannabis does not appear to be a realistic policy objective. Given the limited harms generated, there is scarce scientific justification to prioritize cannabis cultivation in Belgian law enforcement strategies. As most harms are generated by large-scale growers, it is this category of cultivator, if any, which should be the focus of law enforcement repression. Given the policy origin of most harms, policy-makers should seek to develop policies likely to reduce such harms. At the same time, further research is needed to comparatively assess the harms associated with cannabis cultivation (and trafficking) with those arising from use. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum internet using code division multiple access

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jing; Liu, Yu-xi; Özdemir, Şahin Kaya; Wu, Re-Bing; Gao, Feifei; Wang, Xiang-Bin; Yang, Lan; Nori, Franco

2013-01-01

A crucial open problem inS large-scale quantum networks is how to efficiently transmit quantum data among many pairs of users via a common data-transmission medium. We propose a solution by developing a quantum code division multiple access (q-CDMA) approach in which quantum information is chaotically encoded to spread its spectral content, and then decoded via chaos synchronization to separate different sender-receiver pairs. In comparison to other existing approaches, such as frequency division multiple access (FDMA), the proposed q-CDMA can greatly increase the information rates per channel used, especially for very noisy quantum channels. PMID:23860488

Role of Edges in Complex Network Epidemiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hao; Jiang, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Hui; Xie, Fei; Chen, Chao

2012-09-01

In complex network epidemiology, diseases spread along contacting edges between individuals and different edges may play different roles in epidemic outbreaks. Quantifying the efficiency of edges is an important step towards arresting epidemics. In this paper, we study the efficiency of edges in general susceptible-infected-recovered models, and introduce the transmission capability to measure the efficiency of edges. Results show that deleting edges with the highest transmission capability will greatly decrease epidemics on scale-free networks. Basing on the message passing approach, we get exact mathematical solution on configuration model networks with edge deletion in the large size limit.

Do the pyramids show continental drift?

PubMed

Pawley, G S; Abrahamsen, N

1973-03-02

The mystery of the orientation of the Great Pyramids of Giza has remained unexplained for many decades. The general alignment is 4 minutes west of north. It is argued that this is not a builders' error but is caused by movement over the centuries. Modern theories of continental drift do not predict quite such large movements, but other causes of polar wandering give even smaller shifts. Thus, continental drift is the most likely explanation, although somewhat implausible, especially as relevant measurements have been made over a 50-year period, whereas geophysical measurements of sea-floor spreading relate to million-year time scales.

Modeling of Ceiling Fire Spread and Thermal Radiation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-10-01

under a PMMA ceiling and flame lengths under an inert ceiling are found to be in reasonable agreement with full-scale behavior. Although fire spread...5 3 Flame Lengths under Full-Scale Ceilings 12 4 Correlation of Flame Length under Inert Ceilings 16 5 Correlation of Flame Length under No 234 Model...Ceilings 17 6 Correlation of Flame Length under No B8811 Model Ceilings 18 7 Correlation of Flame Length under No. 223 Model Ceilings 19 8

Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiviluoma, Juha; Holttinen, Hannele; Weir, David

2015-10-25

The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1more » h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.« less

Factors influencing the spreading of a low-discharge river plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mestres, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

2007-09-01

Coastal plumes resulting from the continuous discharge of brackish or fresh river water are common features of continental and shelf seas. They are important for several aspects of the coastal environment, and can influence the local socio-economy to some degree. It is known from many studies that the evolution of plumes depends on various factors, such as the local bathymetry, hydrodynamics and meteorological conditions; most of these works; however, have focused on medium to large-scale rivers, while the smaller-scale discharges commonly found in the microtidal environments of the Mediterranean Sea have been less studied. This paper is centred on the behaviour of a freshwater plume arising from one of such outflows, in terms of both the physical configuration of the waterbody and the characteristics of the main driving mechanisms (discharge rate and wind stress). The modelled cases correspond to an open shallow bay, limited at one end by a large headland, and into which a typical Mediterranean waterway discharges. This particular setup is representative of a number of different bays existing on the Eastern Spanish coast. The numerical results highlight the large influence of the bay's topography on the river plume's extension and inner structure.

Wetting and spreading at the molecular scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koplik, Joel; Banavar, Jayanth R.

1994-01-01

We have studied the microscopic aspects of the spreading of liquid drops on a solid surface by molecular dynamics simulations of coexisting three-phase Lennard-Jones systems of liquid, vapor and solid. We consider both spherically symmetric atoms and chain-like molecules, and a range of interaction strengths. As the attraction between liquid and solid increases we observed a smooth transition in spreading regimes, from partial to complete to terraced wetting. In the terraced case, where distinct monomolecular layers spread with different velocities, the layers are ordered but not solid, with qualitative behavior resembling recent experimental findings, but with interesting differences in the spreading rate.

Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation

PubMed Central

Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian

2018-01-01

The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007–2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus. PMID:29324895

Plasma Accelerators Race to 10 GeV and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsouleas, Tom

2005-10-01

This paper reviews the concepts, recent progress and current challenges for realizing the tremendous electric fields in relativistic plasma waves for applications ranging from tabletop particle accelerators to high-energy physics. Experiments in the 90's on laser-driven plasma wakefield accelerators at several laboratories around the world demonstrated the potential for plasma wakefields to accelerate intense bunches of self-trapped particles at rates as high as 100 GeV/m in mm-scale gas jets. These early experiments offered impressive gradients but large energy spread (100%) and short interaction lengths. Major breakthroughs have recently occurred on both fronts. Three groups (LBL-US, LOA-France and RAL-UK) have now entered a new regime of laser wakefield acceleration resulting in 100 MeV mono-energetic beams with up to nanoCoulombs of charge and very small angular spread. Simulations suggest that current lasers are just entering this new regime, and the scaling to higher energies appears attractive. In parallel with the progress in laser-driven wakefields, particle-beam driven wakefield accelerators are making large strides. A series of experiments using the 30 GeV beam of the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC) has demonstrated high-gradient acceleration of electrons and positrons in meter-scale plasmas. The UCLA/USC/SLAC collaboration has accelerated electrons beyond 1 GeV and is aiming at 10 GeV in 30 cm as the next step toward a ``plasma afterburner,'' a concept for doubling the energy of a high-energy collider in a few tens of meters of plasma. In addition to wakefield acceleration, these and other experiments have demonstrated the rich physics bounty to be reaped from relativistic beam-plasma interactions. This includes plasma lenses capable of focusing particle beams to the highest density ever produced, collective radiation mechanisms capable of generating high-brightness x-ray beams, collective refraction of particles at a plasma interface, and acceleration of intense proton beams from laser-irradiated foils.

Simultaneous observations of F2 layer stratification and spread F at postmidnight over a northern equatorial anomaly region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chunhua; Yang, Guobin; Deng, Chi; Zhou, Chen; Zhu, Peng; Yokoyama, Tatsuhiro; Song, Huan; Lan, Ting; Ni, Binbin; Zhao, Zhengyu; Zhang, Yuannong

2015-12-01

Simultaneous observations of F2 layer stratification and spread F at postmidnight (00:00 LT to 05:00 LT) were carried out on 22, 23, and 28 November 2013, using ionosondes distributed over a northern equatorial anomaly region at three specific locations, i.e., Puer (PUR, 22.7°N, 101.05°E, dip latitude 12.9°N), Chiang Mai (CMU, 18.8°N, 98.9°E, dip latitude 9.04°N), and Chumphon (CPN, 10.7°N, 99.4°E, dip latitude 0.93°N). The results show that both the PUR and CMU stations observed the F2 layer stratification at postmidnight in the Northern Hemisphere, frequently accompanied with gravity waves (the periods~30-100 min). It is reported that F2 layer stratification at postmidnight can be observed in the Northern Hemisphere for the first time. It is suggested that the thermospheric neutral wind triggered by gravity waves strongly contribute to the altitude dependence of the combined vertical plasma velocity, which consequently poses significant impacts on the occurrence of the low-latitude F2 layer stratification at postmidnight. In addition, the spread F other than F2 layer stratification was observed at the CPN station located at the geomagnetic equator, suggesting that smaller geomagnetic inclination tend to inhibit the postmidnight F2 layer stratification in the equatorial region. Furthermore, on 23 November 2013 a good correlation was identified between the F2 layer stratification at PUR and the spread F at both CMU and CPN, possibly due to that the large-scale gravity waves originating at middle latitudes contribute to the nighttime spread F observed in the low-latitude and equatorial regions.

Spatial and temporal distribution of the seismicity along two mid-oceanic ridges with contrasted spreading rates in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsang-Hin-Sun, E.; Perrot, J.; Royer, J. Y.

2015-12-01

The seismicity of the ultra-slow spreading Southwest (14 mm/y) and intermediate spreading Southeast (60 mm/y) Indian ridges was monitored from February 2012 to March 2013 by the OHASISBIO array of 7 autonomous hydrophones. A total of 1471 events were located with 4 instruments or more, inside the array, with a median location uncertainty < 5 km and a completeness magnitude of mb = 3. Both ridges display similar average rates of seismicity, suggesting that there is no systematic relationship between seismicity and spreading rates. Accretion modes do differ, however, by the along-axis distribution of the seismic events. Along the ultra-slow Southwest Indian Ridge, events are sparse but regularly spaced and scattered up to 50 km off-axis. Along the fast Southeast Indian Ridge, events are irregularly distributed, focusing in narrow regions near the ridge axis at segment ends and along transform faults, whereas ridge-segment centers generally appear as seismic gaps (at the level of completeness of the array). Only two clusters, 6 months apart, are identified in a segment-center at 29°S. From the temporal distribution of the clustered events and comparisons with observations in similar mid-oceanic ridge setting, both clusters seem to have a volcanic origin and to be related to a dike emplacement or a possible eruption on the seafloor. Their onset time and migration rate are comparable to volcanic swarms recorded along the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Overall, the rate of seismicity along the two Indian spreading ridges correlates with the large-scale variations in the bathymetry and shear-wave velocity anomaly in the upper mantle, suggesting that the distribution of the low-magnitude seismicity is mainly controlled by along-axis variations in the lithosphere rheology and temperature.

A large-scale assessment of European rabbit damage to agriculture in Spain.

PubMed

Delibes-Mateos, Miguel; Farfán, Miguel Ángel; Rouco, Carlos; Olivero, Jesús; Márquez, Ana Luz; Fa, John E; Vargas, Juan Mario; Villafuerte, Rafael

2018-01-01

Numerous small and medium-sized mammal pests cause widespread and economically significant damage to crops all over the globe. However, most research on pest species has focused on accounts of the level of damage. There are fewer studies concentrating on the description of crop damage caused by pests at large geographical scales, or on analysis of the ecological and anthropogenic factors correlated with these observed patterns. We investigated the relationship between agricultural damage by the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and environmental and anthropogenic variables throughout Spain. Rabbit damage was mainly concentrated within the central-southern regions of Spain. We found that rabbit damage increased significantly between the early 2000s and 2013. Greater losses were typical of those areas where farming dominated and natural vegetation was scarce, where main railways and highways were present, and where environmental conditions were generally favourable for rabbit populations to proliferate. From our analysis, we suggest that roads and railway lines act as potential corridors along which rabbits can spread. The recent increase in Spain of such infrastructure may explain the rise in rabbit damage reported in this study. Our approach is valuable as a method for assessing drivers of wildlife pest damage at large spatial scales, and can be used to propose methods to reduce human - wildlife conflict. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Inkjet-Spray Hybrid Printing for 3D Freeform Fabrication of Multilayered Hydrogel Structures.

PubMed

Yoon, Sejeong; Park, Ju An; Lee, Hwa-Rim; Yoon, Woong Hee; Hwang, Dong Soo; Jung, Sungjune

2018-04-30

Here, a new bioprinting process by combining drop-on-demand inkjet printing with a spray-coating technique, which enables the high-resolution, high-speed, and freeform fabrication of large-scale cell-laden hydrogel structures is reported. Hydrogel structures with various shapes and composed of different materials, including alginate, cellulose nanofiber, and fibrinogen, are fabricated using the inkjet-spray printing. To manufacture cell-friendly hydrogel structures with controllable stiffness, gelatine methacryloyl is saponified to stabilize jet formation and is subsequently mixed with sodium alginate to prepare blend inks. The hydrogels crosslinked from the blend inks are characterized by assessing physical properties including the microstructure and mechanical stiffness and cellular responses including the cell viability, metabolic activity, and functionality of human dermal fibroblasts within the hydrogel. Cell-laden hydrogel structures are generated on a large scale and collagen type I secretion and spreading of cells within the hydrogels are assessed. The results demonstrate that the inkjet-spray printing system will ensure the formation of a cell-laden hydrogel structure with high shape fidelity in a rapid and reliable manner. Ultimately, the proposed printing technique and the blend bioink to be used to fabricate 3D laminated large-scale tissue equivalents that potentially mimic the function of native tissues is expected. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Effects of multiple spreaders in community networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhao-Long; Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Yang, Guang-Yong; Liu, Jian-Guo

2014-12-01

Human contact networks exhibit the community structure. Understanding how such community structure affects the epidemic spreading could provide insights for preventing the spreading of epidemics between communities. In this paper, we explore the spreading of multiple spreaders in community networks. A network based on the clustering preferential mechanism is evolved, whose communities are detected by the Girvan-Newman (GN) algorithm. We investigate the spreading effectiveness by selecting the nodes as spreaders in the following ways: nodes with the largest degree in each community (community hubs), the same number of nodes with the largest degree from the global network (global large-degree) and randomly selected one node within each community (community random). The experimental results on the SIR model show that the spreading effectiveness based on the global large-degree and community hubs methods is the same in the early stage of the infection and the method of community random is the worst. However, when the infection rate exceeds the critical value, the global large-degree method embodies the worst spreading effectiveness. Furthermore, the discrepancy of effectiveness for the three methods will decrease as the infection rate increases. Therefore, we should immunize the hubs in each community rather than those hubs in the global network to prevent the outbreak of epidemics.

A Study of NetCDF as an Approach for High Performance Medical Image Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnus, Marcone; Coelho Prado, Thiago; von Wangenhein, Aldo; de Macedo, Douglas D. J.; Dantas, M. A. R.

2012-02-01

The spread of telemedicine systems increases every day. The systems and PACS based on DICOM images has become common. This rise reflects the need to develop new storage systems, more efficient and with lower computational costs. With this in mind, this article discusses a study for application in NetCDF data format as the basic platform for storage of DICOM images. The study case comparison adopts an ordinary database, the HDF5 and the NetCDF to storage the medical images. Empirical results, using a real set of images, indicate that the time to retrieve images from the NetCDF for large scale images has a higher latency compared to the other two methods. In addition, the latency is proportional to the file size, which represents a drawback to a telemedicine system that is characterized by a large amount of large image files.

Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors

DOE PAGES

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

2015-09-28

Differences in simulations of tropical marine low-cloud cover (LCC) feedback are sources of significant spread in temperature responses of climate models to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that in models the feedback is mainly driven by three large-scale changes—a strengthening tropical inversion, increasing surface latent heat flux, and an increasing vertical moisture gradient. Variations in the LCC response to these changes alone account for most of the spread in model-projected 21st century LCC changes. A methodology is devised to constrain the LCC response observationally using sea surface temperature (SST) as a surrogate for the latent heat flux and moisture gradient.more » In models where the current climate's LCC sensitivities to inversion strength and SST variations are consistent with observed, LCC decreases systematically, which would increase absorption of solar radiation. These results support a positive LCC feedback. Finally, correcting biases in the sensitivities will be an important step toward more credible simulation of cloud feedbacks.« less

Geologic evidence of hotspot activity of Venus - Predictions for Magellan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stofan, Ellen R.; Saunders, R. Stephen

1990-01-01

A number of distinctive types of geologic features have been identified on Venus that are interpreted to be related to thermal plumes including domal rises, coronae, and major composite shield volcanoes. The basic characteristics of these features as well as their distribution are documented. The three types of features have related morphologies and are interpreted to represent a continuum of features formed by mantle plumes at scales from 100s to over 1000 km. The Artemis structure, located in Aphrodite Terra, is proposed to be a large corona. If crustal spreading processes are operating on Venus, hotspot features should form chains on the surface as seen in terrestrial ocean basins. On the basis of current data on hotspot-related feature distribution on Venus, no clear evidence exists for hotspot chains. The complete distribution of hotspot features in Magellan data will be used to understand better the relationship between interior processes and surface features, as well as to provide a test for the crustal spreading hypothesis.

Measures against transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Japan in 2009: simulation model.

PubMed

Yasuda, H; Suzuki, K

2009-11-05

The first outbreak of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Japan was contained in the Kansai region in May 2009 by social distancing measures. Modelling methods are needed to estimate the validity of these measures before their implementation on a large scale. We estimated the transmission coefficient from outbreaks of pandemic H1N1 influenza among school children in Japan in summer 2009; using this transmission coefficient, we simulated the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza in a virtual community called the virtual Chuo Line which models an area to the west of metropolitan Tokyo. Measures evaluated in our simulation included: isolation at home, school closure, post-exposure prophylaxis and mass vaccinations of school children. We showed that post-exposure prophylaxis combined with isolation at home and school closure significantly decreases the total number of cases in the community and can mitigate the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza, even when there is a delay in the availability of vaccine.

Time-Dependent Liquid Transport on a Biomimetic Topological Surface.

PubMed

Yu, Cunlong; Li, Chuxin; Gao, Can; Dong, Zhichao; Wu, Lei; Jiang, Lei

2018-05-02

Liquid drops impacting on a solid surface is a familiar phenomenon. On rainy days, it is quite important for leaves to drain off impacting raindrops. Water can bounce off or flow down a water-repellent leaf easily, but with difficulty on a hydrophilic leaf. Here, we show an interesting phenomenon in which impacting drops on the hydrophilic pitcher rim of Nepenthes alata can spread outward to prohibit water filling the pitcher tank. We mimic the peristome surface through a designed 3D printing and replicating way and report a time-dependently switchable liquid transport based on biomimetic topological structures, where surface curvature can work synergistically with the surface microtextures to manipulate the switchable spreading performance. Motived by this strange behavior, we construct a large-scaled peristome-mimetic surface in a 3D profile, demonstrating the ability to reduce the need to mop or to squeegee drops that form during the drop impacting process on pipes or other curved surfaces in food processing, moisture transfer, heat management, etc.

Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

2014-12-01

The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further added value to both deterministic and probability forecast compared to raw SME's and this better skill is probably flows from large spread and improved spread-error relationship. CGMME system is currently capable of generating ER prediction in real time and successfully delivering its experimental operational ER forecast of ISM for the last few years.

CROSS-DISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: Message Spreading and Forget Remember Mechanism on a Scale-Free Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Gu, Jiao; Cai, Xu

2008-06-01

We study message spreading on a scale-free network, by introducing a novel forget-remember mechanism. Message, a general term which can refer to email, news, rumor or disease, etc, can be forgotten and remembered by its holder. The way the message is forgotten and remembered is governed by the forget and remember function, F and R, respectively. Both F and R are functions of history time t concerning individual's previous states, namely being active (with message) or inactive (without message). Our systematic simulations show at the low transmission rate whether or not the spreading can be efficient is primarily determined by the corresponding parameters for F and R.

Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

2017-02-01

In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

Uncertainty in Wildfire Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finney, M.; Cohen, J. D.

2013-12-01

The challenge of predicting or modeling fire behavior is well recognized by scientists and managers who attempt predictions of fire spread rate or growth. At the scale of the spreading fire, the uncertainty in winds, moisture, fuel structure, and fire location make accurate predictions difficult, and the non-linear response of fire spread to these conditions means that average behavior is poorly represented by average environmental parameters. Even more difficult are estimations of threshold behaviors (e.g. spread/no-spread, crown fire initiation, ember generation and spotting) because the fire responds as a step-function to small changes in one or more environmental variables, translating to dynamical feedbacks and unpredictability. Recent research shows that ignition of fuel particles, itself a threshold phenomenon, depends on flame contact which is absolutely not steady or uniform. Recent studies of flame structure in both spreading and stationary fires reveals that much of the non-steadiness of the flames as they contact fuel particles results from buoyant instabilities that produce quasi-periodic flame structures. With fuel particle ignition produced by time-varying heating and short-range flame contact, future improvements in fire behavior modeling will likely require statistical approaches to deal with the uncertainty at all scales, including the level of heat transfer, the fuel arrangement, and weather.

The cost of simplifying air travel when modeling disease spread.

PubMed

Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H; Ford, Daniel A; Douglas, Judith V

2009-01-01

Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed.

Alteration heterogeneities in peridotites tectonically exhumed along slow-spreading ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouméjon, S.; Frueh-Green, G. L.; Williams, M. J.

2017-12-01

Serpentinized peridotites associated with mafic lithologies commonly outcrop along slow-spreading ridges. They are exhumed along large offset normal faults, called detachment faults, that uplift fresh peridotites and gabbros from the base of the brittle lithosphere to shallower levels where they are hydrothermally altered. Numerous petrological studies in these environments reveal that peridotites are variably altered depending on factors such as the temperature, redox state, intensity of hydrothermal fluid input and the chemistry of these fluids. It follows that the detachment footwalls are heterogeneous at scales less than a kilometer, reflecting initial distribution of primary lithologies and later variable alteration. Here we investigate the nature, distribution and typical length scales of alteration heterogeneities. We primarily focus on samples drilled at five sites across the Atlantis Massif (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 30°N) during IODP Exp. 357 (Nov. 2015, RRS James Cook) and on samples dredged along the easternmost Southwest Indian Ridge (Smoothseafloor cruise, Oct. 2010, N/O Marion Dufresne). Multiple petrological observations are combined: hand sample description, sequences of textures and the associated mineralogical assemblages identifiable in thin section, in situ major and trace elements data as well as bulk rock and in situ oxygen isotopes ratios in serpentine textures. We show that all serpentinized peridotites develop serpentine mesh textures. However, some domains of the footwall are overprinted by further serpentine recrystallization and veins (mostly chrysotile- or antigorite-bearing) as a result of localized fluid-rock interaction and evolving fluids. Other domains are impacted by the alteration of the surrounding mafic bodies that influences both the mineralogy and chemistry of the altered peridotites. Using these results, we propose a conceptual model for the development of alteration heterogeneities during exhumation at slow-spreading ridges.

Participation in the scientific activities of the Waves in Space Plasma (WISP) project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alpert, Yakov L.; Grossi, Mario D.

1994-01-01

This is the Final Report for Contract NAG5-1925, that consisted of experiment design, for possible use by the space science mission called WISP (Waves in Space Plasma). This mission is under study by the Canadian Space Agency and by NASA. Two WISP configurations are contemplated, under the name of BICEPS: one is called BOLAS, and the other WISPRS. Both these configurations are meant to perform bistatic sounding of the ionosphere, at a height close to F(sub 2) H(sub max) (about 350 Km), with a pair of satellites, either tethered or in free flight. Investigation A (with Y.L. Alpert as P.I.) addresses the subject of parametric decay effects, expected to arise in a magnetoplasma under the influence of high-intensity HF fields. Criteria were formulated that could be used in searching for parametric instabilities and of electric fields in the ionosphere and magnetosphere, by in-situ satellites, such as the BICEPS Pair. Investigation B (with M.D.Grossi as P.I.) addressed the bistatic measurement, by the BICEPS pair,of ionospheric features, such as large-scale and small-scale disturbances, travelling ionospheric disturbances, electron density irregularities, spread-F phenomena, etc. These measurements by BICEPS could be correlated with the waveform distortion and degradation experienced by microwave links from geosynchronous height to ground, such as the ACTS satellite, expected to radiate pulses as short as 1 nanosecond in the band 20 to 30 GHz. These links are transionospheric and propagate e.m. waves in the volume of the ionosphere where BICEPS operates. It will be possible, therefore, to correlate the two classes of measurements, and learn the causative mechanisms that are responsible for the time-spread and frequency-spread nature of communications waveforms at microwave, in geosynchronous height to ground paths.

29 CFR 1915.71 - Scaffolds or staging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... large, loose or dead knots. It shall also be free from dry rot, large checks, worm holes or other... welding, burning, riveting or open flame work shall be performed on any staging suspended by means of... sections of extension trestle ladders shall be so spread that when in an open position the spread of the...

29 CFR 1915.71 - Scaffolds or staging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... large, loose or dead knots. It shall also be free from dry rot, large checks, worm holes or other... welding, burning, riveting or open flame work shall be performed on any staging suspended by means of... sections of extension trestle ladders shall be so spread that when in an open position the spread of the...

29 CFR 1915.71 - Scaffolds or staging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... large, loose or dead knots. It shall also be free from dry rot, large checks, worm holes or other... welding, burning, riveting or open flame work shall be performed on any staging suspended by means of... sections of extension trestle ladders shall be so spread that when in an open position the spread of the...

29 CFR 1915.71 - Scaffolds or staging.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... large, loose or dead knots. It shall also be free from dry rot, large checks, worm holes or other... welding, burning, riveting or open flame work shall be performed on any staging suspended by means of... sections of extension trestle ladders shall be so spread that when in an open position the spread of the...

Comparison of the Frontier Distributed Database Caching System to NoSQL Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dykstra, Dave

2012-12-01

One of the main attractions of non-relational “NoSQL” databases is their ability to scale to large numbers of readers, including readers spread over a wide area. The Frontier distributed database caching system, used in production by the Large Hadron Collider CMS and ATLAS detector projects for Conditions data, is based on traditional SQL databases but also adds high scalability and the ability to be distributed over a wide-area for an important subset of applications. This paper compares the major characteristics of the two different approaches and identifies the criteria for choosing which approach to prefer over the other. It also compares in some detail the NoSQL databases used by CMS and ATLAS: MongoDB, CouchDB, HBase, and Cassandra.

Venus Interior Structure Mission (VISM): Establishing a Seismic Network on Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stofan, E. R.; Saunders, R. S.; Senske, D.; Nock, K.; Tralli, D.; Lundgren, P.; Smrekar, S.; Banerdt, B.; Kaiser, W.; Dudenhoefer, J.

1993-01-01

Magellan radar data show the surface of Venus to contain a wide range of geologic features (large volcanoes, extensive rift valleys, etc.). Although networks of interconnecting zones of deformation are identified, a system of spreading ridges and subduction zones like those that dominate the tectonic style of the Earth do not appear to be present. In addition, the absence of a mantle low-viscosity zone suggests a strong link between mantle dynamics and the surface. As a natural follow-on to the Magellan mission, establishing a network of seismometers on Venus will provide detailed quantitative information on the large scale interior structure of the planet. When analyzed in conjunction with image, gravity, and topography information, these data will aid in constraining mechanisms that drive surface deformation.

Comparison of the Frontier Distributed Database Caching System to NoSQL Databases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dykstra, Dave

One of the main attractions of non-relational NoSQL databases is their ability to scale to large numbers of readers, including readers spread over a wide area. The Frontier distributed database caching system, used in production by the Large Hadron Collider CMS and ATLAS detector projects for Conditions data, is based on traditional SQL databases but also adds high scalability and the ability to be distributed over a wide-area for an important subset of applications. This paper compares the major characteristics of the two different approaches and identifies the criteria for choosing which approach to prefer over the other. It alsomore » compares in some detail the NoSQL databases used by CMS and ATLAS: MongoDB, CouchDB, HBase, and Cassandra.« less

Flora and Fauna on Backs of Large Papuan Moss-Forest Weevils.

PubMed

Gressitt, J L; Sedlacek, J; Szent-Ivany, J J

1965-12-31

Large, living, flightless weevils feeding on leaves of woody plants high moss forest on various New Guinea mountain ranges have plant growth on their backs. Fungi and algae have been found on 11 species of Gymnopholus, lichens on six species, and liverworts on one species. In other genera of weevils, on the same mountains, there are additional specific associations with fungi, algae, lichens, and liverworts. The fungi and lichens, at least, are inhabited by oribatid mites of a new family, which may spread the plants from beetle to beetle. Also, nematodes, rotifers, psocids, and diatoms occur among the plants. Specialized scales or hairs, and a secretion, in depressions on the weevils' backs, appear to be associated with cpcouragement of the plant growth. Mutualistic symbiotic relationships seem to be clearly indicated.

Dimensionality reduction in epidemic spreading models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frasca, M.; Rizzo, A.; Gallo, L.; Fortuna, L.; Porfiri, M.

2015-09-01

Complex dynamical systems often exhibit collective dynamics that are well described by a reduced set of key variables in a low-dimensional space. Such a low-dimensional description offers a privileged perspective to understand the system behavior across temporal and spatial scales. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach to establish low-dimensional representations of large epidemic datasets by using a dimensionality reduction algorithm based on isometric features mapping (ISOMAP). We demonstrate our approach on synthetic data for epidemic spreading in a population of mobile individuals. We find that ISOMAP is successful in embedding high-dimensional data into a low-dimensional manifold, whose topological features are associated with the epidemic outbreak. Across a range of simulation parameters and model instances, we observe that epidemic outbreaks are embedded into a family of closed curves in a three-dimensional space, in which neighboring points pertain to instants that are close in time. The orientation of each curve is unique to a specific outbreak, and the coordinates correlate with the number of infected individuals. A low-dimensional description of epidemic spreading is expected to improve our understanding of the role of individual response on the outbreak dynamics, inform the selection of meaningful global observables, and, possibly, aid in the design of control and quarantine procedures.

Anatomy of an online misinformation network.

PubMed

Shao, Chengcheng; Hui, Pik-Mai; Wang, Lei; Jiang, Xinwen; Flammini, Alessandro; Menczer, Filippo; Ciampaglia, Giovanni Luca

2018-01-01

Massive amounts of fake news and conspiratorial content have spread over social media before and after the 2016 US Presidential Elections despite intense fact-checking efforts. How do the spread of misinformation and fact-checking compete? What are the structural and dynamic characteristics of the core of the misinformation diffusion network, and who are its main purveyors? How to reduce the overall amount of misinformation? To explore these questions we built Hoaxy, an open platform that enables large-scale, systematic studies of how misinformation and fact-checking spread and compete on Twitter. Hoaxy captures public tweets that include links to articles from low-credibility and fact-checking sources. We perform k-core decomposition on a diffusion network obtained from two million retweets produced by several hundred thousand accounts over the six months before the election. As we move from the periphery to the core of the network, fact-checking nearly disappears, while social bots proliferate. The number of users in the main core reaches equilibrium around the time of the election, with limited churn and increasingly dense connections. We conclude by quantifying how effectively the network can be disrupted by penalizing the most central nodes. These findings provide a first look at the anatomy of a massive online misinformation diffusion network.

Anatomy of an online misinformation network

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Jiang, Xinwen; Flammini, Alessandro; Ciampaglia, Giovanni Luca

2018-01-01

Massive amounts of fake news and conspiratorial content have spread over social media before and after the 2016 US Presidential Elections despite intense fact-checking efforts. How do the spread of misinformation and fact-checking compete? What are the structural and dynamic characteristics of the core of the misinformation diffusion network, and who are its main purveyors? How to reduce the overall amount of misinformation? To explore these questions we built Hoaxy, an open platform that enables large-scale, systematic studies of how misinformation and fact-checking spread and compete on Twitter. Hoaxy captures public tweets that include links to articles from low-credibility and fact-checking sources. We perform k-core decomposition on a diffusion network obtained from two million retweets produced by several hundred thousand accounts over the six months before the election. As we move from the periphery to the core of the network, fact-checking nearly disappears, while social bots proliferate. The number of users in the main core reaches equilibrium around the time of the election, with limited churn and increasingly dense connections. We conclude by quantifying how effectively the network can be disrupted by penalizing the most central nodes. These findings provide a first look at the anatomy of a massive online misinformation diffusion network. PMID:29702657

Interacting epidemics on overlay networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, Sebastian; Jansen, Vincent A. A.

2010-03-01

The interaction between multiple pathogens spreading on networks connecting a given set of nodes presents an ongoing theoretical challenge. Here, we aim to understand such interactions by studying bond percolation of two different processes on overlay networks of arbitrary joint degree distribution. We find that an outbreak of a first pathogen providing immunity to another one spreading subsequently on a second network connecting the same set of nodes does so most effectively if the degrees on the two networks are positively correlated. In that case, the protection is stronger the more heterogeneous the degree distributions of the two networks are. If, on the other hand, the degrees are uncorrelated or negatively correlated, increasing heterogeneity reduces the potential of the first process to prevent the second one from reaching epidemic proportions. We generalize these results to cases where the edges of the two networks overlap to arbitrary amount, or where the immunity granted is only partial. If both processes grant immunity to each other, we find a wide range of possible situations of coexistence or mutual exclusion, depending on the joint degree distribution of the underlying networks and the amount of immunity granted mutually. These results generalize the concept of a coexistence threshold and illustrate the impact of large-scale network structure on the interaction between multiple spreading agents.

Using heterogeneity in the population structure of U.S. swine farms to compare transmission models for porcine epidemic diarrhoea

PubMed Central

O’Dea, Eamon B.; Snelson, Harry; Bansal, Shweta

2016-01-01

In 2013, U.S. swine producers were confronted with the disruptive emergence of porcine epidemic diarrhoea (PED). Movement of animals among farms is hypothesised to have played a role in the spread of PED among farms. Via this or other mechanisms, the rate of spread may also depend on the geographic density of farms and climate. To evaluate such effects on a large scale, we analyse state-level counts of outbreaks with variables describing the distribution of farm sizes and types, aggregate flows of animals among farms, and an index of climate. Our first main finding is that it is possible for a correlation analysis to be sensitive to transmission model parameters. This finding is based on a global sensitivity analysis of correlations on simulated data that included a biased and noisy observation model based on the available PED data. Our second main finding is that flows are significantly associated with the reports of PED outbreaks. This finding is based on correlations of pairwise relationships and regression modeling of total and weekly outbreak counts. These findings illustrate how variation in population structure may be employed along with observational data to improve understanding of disease spread. PMID:26947420

Geometrical control of dissipation during the spreading of liquids on soft solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Menghua; Dervaux, Julien; Narita, Tetsuharu; Lequeux, François; Limat, Laurent; Roché, Matthieu

2018-02-01

Gel layers bound to a rigid substrate are used in cell culture to control differentiation and migration and to lower the friction and tailor the wetting of solids. Their thickness, often considered a negligible parameter, affects cell mechanosensing or the shape of sessile droplets. Here, we show that the adjustment of coating thickness provides control over energy dissipation during the spreading of flowing matter on a gel layer. We combine experiments and theory to provide an analytical description of both the statics and the dynamics of the contact line between the gel, the liquid, and the surrounding atmosphere. We extract from this analysis a hitherto-unknown scaling law that predicts the dynamic contact angle between the three phases as a function of the properties of the coating and the velocity of the contact line. Finally, we show that droplets moving on vertical substrates coated with gel layers having linear thickness gradients drift toward regions of higher energy dissipation. Thus, thickness control opens the opportunity to design a priori the path followed by large droplets moving on gel-coated substrates. Our study shows that thickness is another parameter, besides surface energy and substrate mechanics, to tune the dynamics of liquid spreading and wetting on a compliant coating, with potential applications in dew collection and free-surface flow control.

Landscape Connectivity Shapes the Spread Pattern of the Rice Water Weevil: A Case Study from Zhejiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhengjun; Wu, Jianguo; Shang, Hanwu; Cheng, Jiaan

2011-02-01

The spread of invasive species is a complex ecological process that is affected by both the biology of the species and the spatial structure of a landscape. The rice water weevil ( Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel), a notorious crop pest found in many parts of the world, is one of the most devastating invasive species in China, and has caused enormous economic losses and ecological damage. Little is known, however, as to how habitat and landscape features affect the spatial spread of this pest. Thus, the main goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between the observed spread pattern of L. oryzophilus and landscape structural factors in Zhejiang Province, China between 1993 and 2001. We quantified the invasive spread of the weevil in terms of both the proportion of infected area and spread distance each year as well as landscape structure and connectivity of rice paddies with landscape metrics. Our results showed that the spread of L. oryzophilus took place primarily in the southwest-northeast direction along coastal areas at a speed of about 36 km per year. The composition and spatial arrangement of landscape elements were key determinants of this unique spread pattern. In particular, the connectivity of early rice paddies was crucial for the invasive spread while other factors such as meteorological and geographical conditions may also have been relevant. To control the spread of the pest, we propose four management measures: (1) to implement a landscape-level planning scheme of cropping systems to minimize habitat area and connectivity for the pest, (2) to reduce the source populations at a local scale using integrated control methods, (3) to monitor and report invasive spread in a timely manner, and (4) to strengthen the quarantine system. To be most effective, all four management measures need to be implemented together through an integrated, multi-scaled approach.

Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant, using a high resolution, local scale, mechanistic approach: challenges and insights.

PubMed

Fennell, Mark; Murphy, James E; Gallagher, Tommy; Osborne, Bruce

2013-04-01

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Pest and Disease Management: Why We Shouldn't Go against the Grain

PubMed Central

Skelsey, Peter; With, Kimberly A.; Garrett, Karen A.

2013-01-01

Given the wide range of scales and mechanisms by which pest or disease agents disperse, it is unclear whether there might exist a general relationship between scale of host heterogeneity and spatial spread that could be exploited by available management options. In this model-based study, we investigate the interaction between host distributions and the spread of pests and diseases using an array of models that encompass the dispersal and spread of a diverse range of economically important species: a major insect pest of coniferous forests in western North America, the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae); the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae, one of the most-widespread and best-studied bacterial plant pathogens; the mosquito Culex erraticus, an important vector for many human and animal pathogens, including West Nile Virus; and the oomycete Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of potato late blight. Our model results reveal an interesting general phenomenon: a unimodal (‘humpbacked’) relationship in the magnitude of infestation (an index of dispersal or population spread) with increasing grain size (i.e., the finest scale of patchiness) in the host distribution. Pest and disease management strategies targeting different aspects of host pattern (e.g., abundance, aggregation, isolation, quality) modified the shape of this relationship, but not the general unimodal form. This is a previously unreported effect that provides insight into the spatial scale at which management interventions are most likely to be successful, which, notably, do not always match the scale corresponding to maximum infestation. Our findings could provide a new basis for explaining historical outbreak events, and have implications for biosecurity and public health preparedness. PMID:24098739

Pest and disease management: why we shouldn't go against the grain.

PubMed

Skelsey, Peter; With, Kimberly A; Garrett, Karen A

2013-01-01

Given the wide range of scales and mechanisms by which pest or disease agents disperse, it is unclear whether there might exist a general relationship between scale of host heterogeneity and spatial spread that could be exploited by available management options. In this model-based study, we investigate the interaction between host distributions and the spread of pests and diseases using an array of models that encompass the dispersal and spread of a diverse range of economically important species: a major insect pest of coniferous forests in western North America, the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae); the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae, one of the most-widespread and best-studied bacterial plant pathogens; the mosquito Culex erraticus, an important vector for many human and animal pathogens, including West Nile Virus; and the oomycete Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of potato late blight. Our model results reveal an interesting general phenomenon: a unimodal ('humpbacked') relationship in the magnitude of infestation (an index of dispersal or population spread) with increasing grain size (i.e., the finest scale of patchiness) in the host distribution. Pest and disease management strategies targeting different aspects of host pattern (e.g., abundance, aggregation, isolation, quality) modified the shape of this relationship, but not the general unimodal form. This is a previously unreported effect that provides insight into the spatial scale at which management interventions are most likely to be successful, which, notably, do not always match the scale corresponding to maximum infestation. Our findings could provide a new basis for explaining historical outbreak events, and have implications for biosecurity and public health preparedness.

Epigenomic reprogramming during pancreatic cancer progression links anabolic glucose metabolism to distant metastasis.

PubMed

McDonald, Oliver G; Li, Xin; Saunders, Tyler; Tryggvadottir, Rakel; Mentch, Samantha J; Warmoes, Marc O; Word, Anna E; Carrer, Alessandro; Salz, Tal H; Natsume, Sonoko; Stauffer, Kimberly M; Makohon-Moore, Alvin; Zhong, Yi; Wu, Hao; Wellen, Kathryn E; Locasale, Jason W; Iacobuzio-Donahue, Christine A; Feinberg, Andrew P

2017-03-01

During the progression of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), heterogeneous subclonal populations emerge that drive primary tumor growth, regional spread, distant metastasis, and patient death. However, the genetics of metastases largely reflects that of the primary tumor in untreated patients, and PDAC driver mutations are shared by all subclones. This raises the possibility that an epigenetic process might operate during metastasis. Here we report large-scale reprogramming of chromatin modifications during the natural evolution of distant metastasis. Changes were targeted to thousands of large chromatin domains across the genome that collectively specified malignant traits, including euchromatin and large organized chromatin histone H3 lysine 9 (H3K9)-modified (LOCK) heterochromatin. Remarkably, distant metastases co-evolved a dependence on the oxidative branch of the pentose phosphate pathway (oxPPP), and oxPPP inhibition selectively reversed reprogrammed chromatin, malignant gene expression programs, and tumorigenesis. These findings suggest a model whereby linked metabolic-epigenetic programs are selected for enhanced tumorigenic fitness during the evolution of distant metastasis.

Characterizing Ocean Turbulence from Argo, Acoustic Doppler, and Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, Katherine

Turbulence is inherently chaotic and unsteady, so observing it and modeling it are no easy tasks. The ocean's sheer size makes it even more difficult to observe, and its unpredictable and ever-changing forcings introduce additional complexities. Turbulence in the oceans ranges from basin scale to the scale of the molecular viscosity. The method of energy transfer between scales is, however, an area of active research, so observations of the ocean at all scales are crucial to understanding the basic dynamics of its motions. In this collection of work, I use a variety of datasets to characterize a wide range of scales of turbulence, including observations from multiple instruments and from models with different governing equations. I analyzed the largest scales of the turbulent range using the global salinity data of the Argo profiling float network. Taking advantage of the scattered and discontinuous nature of this dataset, the second-order structure function was calculated down to 2000m depth, and shown to be useful for predicting spectral slopes. Results showed structure function slopes of 2/3 at small scales, and 0 at large scales, which corresponds with spectral slopes of -5/3 at small scales, and -1 at large scales. Using acoustic Doppler velocity measurements, I characterized the meter- to kilometer-scale turbulence at a potential tidal energy site in the Puget Sound, WA. Acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) observations provided the data for an analysis that includes coherence, anisotropy, and intermittency. In order to more simply describe these features, a parameterization was done with four turbulence metrics, and the anisotropy magnitude, introduced here, was shown to most closely capture the coherent events. Then, using both the NREL TurbSim stochastic turbulence generator and the NCAR large-eddy simulation (LES) model, I calculated turbulence statistics to validate the accuracy of these methods in reproducing the tidal channel. TurbSim models statistics at the height of a turbine hub (5m) well, but do not model coherent events, while the LES does create these events, but not realistically in this configuration, based on comparisons with observations. Each of the datasets have disadvantages when it comes to observing turbulence. The Argo network is sparse in space, and few measurements are taken simultaneously in time. Therefore spatial and temporal averaging is needed, which requires the turbulence to be homogeneous and stationary if it is to be generalized. Though the acoustic Doppler current profiler provides a vertical profile of velocities, the fluctuations are dominated by instrument noise and beam spread, preventing it from being used for most turbulence metrics. ADV measurements have much less noise, and no beam spread, but the observations are made at one point in space, limiting us to temporal statistics or an assumption of "frozen turbulence" to infer spatial scales. As for the models, TurbSim does not have any real-world forcing, and uses parameterized spectra, and coherence functions and randomizes phase information, while LES models must make assumptions about sub-grid scales, which may be inaccurate. Additionally, all models are set up with idealizations of the forcing and domain, which may make the results unlike observations in a particular location and time. Despite these difficulties in observing and characterizing turbulence, I present several quantities that use the imperfect, yet still valuable observations, to attain a better description of the turbulence in the oceans.

Excellence in Physics Education Award: SCALE-UP, Student Centered Active Learning Environment with Upside-down Pedagogies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beichner, Robert

2016-03-01

The Student-Centered Active Learning Environment with Upside-down Pedagogies (SCALE-UP) Project combines curricula and a specially-designed instructional space to enhance learning. SCALE-UP students practice communication and teamwork skills while performing activities that enhance their conceptual understanding and problem solving skills. This can be done with small or large classes and has been implemented at more than 250 institutions. Educational research indicates that students should collaborate on interesting tasks and be deeply involved with the material they are studying. SCALE-UP classtime is spent primarily on ``tangibles'' and ``ponderables''--hands-on measurements/observations and interesting questions. There are also computer simulations (called ``visibles'') and hypothesis-driven labs. Students sit at tables designed to facilitate group interactions. Instructors circulate and engage in Socratic dialogues. The setting looks like a banquet hall, with lively interactions nearly all the time. Impressive learning gains have been measured at institutions across the US and internationally. This talk describes today's students, how lecturing got started, what happens in a SCALE-UP classroom, and how the approach has spread. The SCALE-UP project has greatly benefitted from numerous Grants made by NSF and FIPSE to NCSU and other institutions.

Onset of a Large Ejective Solar Eruption from a Typical Coronal-jet-base Field Configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Navin Chandra; Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Magara, Tetsuya; Moon, Yong-Jae

2017-08-01

Utilizing multiwavelength observations and magnetic field data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and RHESSI, we investigate a large-scale ejective solar eruption of 2014 December 18 from active region NOAA 12241. This event produced a distinctive “three-ribbon” flare, having two parallel ribbons corresponding to the ribbons of a standard two-ribbon flare, and a larger-scale third quasi-circular ribbon offset from the other two. There are two components to this eruptive event. First, a flux rope forms above a strong-field polarity inversion line and erupts and grows as the parallel ribbons turn on, grow, and spread apart from that polarity inversion line; this evolution is consistent with the mechanism of tether-cutting reconnection for eruptions. Second, the eruption of the arcade that has the erupting flux rope in its core undergoes magnetic reconnection at the null point of a fan dome that envelops the erupting arcade, resulting in formation of the quasi-circular ribbon; this is consistent with the breakout reconnection mechanism for eruptions. We find that the parallel ribbons begin well before (˜12 minutes) the onset of the circular ribbon, indicating that tether-cutting reconnection (or a non-ideal MHD instability) initiated this event, rather than breakout reconnection. The overall setup for this large-scale eruption (diameter of the circular ribbon ˜105 km) is analogous to that of coronal jets (base size ˜104 km), many of which, according to recent findings, result from eruptions of small-scale “minifilaments.” Thus these findings confirm that eruptions of sheared-core magnetic arcades seated in fan-spine null-point magnetic topology happen on a wide range of size scales on the Sun.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

PubMed

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q < qc. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Thermal and chemical convection in planetary mantles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dupeyrat, L.; Sotin, C.; Parmentier, E. M.

1995-01-01

Melting of the upper mantle and extraction of melt result in the formation of a less dense depleted mantle. This paper describes series of two-dimensional models that investigate the effects of chemical buoyancy induced by these density variations. A tracer particles method has been set up to follow as closely as possible the chemical state of the mantle and to model the chemical buoyant force at each grid point. Each series of models provides the evolution with time of magma production, crustal thickness, surface heat flux, and thermal and chemical state of the mantle. First, models that do not take into account the displacement of plates at the surface of Earth demonstrate that chemical buoyancy has an important effect on the geometry of convection. Then models include horizontal motion of plates 5000 km wide. Recycling of crust is taken into account. For a sufficiently high plate velocity which depends on the thermal Rayleigh number, the cell's size is strongly coupled with the plate's size. Plate motion forces chemically buoyant material to sink into the mantle. Then the positive chemical buoyancy yields upwelling as depleted mantle reaches the interface between the upper and the lower mantle. This process is very efficient in mixing the depleted and undepleted mantle at the scale of the grid spacing since these zones of upwelling disrupt the large convective flow. At low spreading rates, zones of upwelling develop quickly, melting occurs, and the model predicts intraplate volcanism by melting of subducted crust. At fast spreading rates, depleted mantle also favors the formation of these zones of upwelling, but they are not strong enough to yield partial melting. Their rapid displacement toward the ridge contributes to faster large-scale homogenization.

Aerial dispersal and multiple-scale spread of epidemics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Disease spread has traditionally been described as a traveling wave of constant velocity. However, aerially dispersed pathogens capable of long distance dispersal (LDD) often have dispersal gradients with extended tails that could result in acceleration of the epidemic front over time and space. W...

Epidemic spreading in annealed directed networks: susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process.

PubMed

Kwon, Sungchul; Kim, Yup

2013-01-01

We investigate epidemic spreading in annealed directed scale-free networks with the in-degree (k) distribution P(in)(k)~k(-γ(in)) and the out-degree (ℓ) distribution, P(out)(ℓ)~ℓ(-γ(out)). The correlation of each node on the networks is controlled by the probability r(0≤r≤1) in two different algorithms, the so-called k and ℓ algorithms. For r=1, the k algorithm gives =, whereas the ℓ algorithm gives =<ℓ(2)>. For r=0, =<ℓ> for both algorithms. As the prototype of epidemic spreading, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process on the networks are analyzed using the heterogeneous mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. The directedness of links and the correlation of the network are found to play important roles in the spreading, so that critical behaviors of both models are distinct from those on undirected scale-free networks.

Colony Rheology: Active Arthropods Generate Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Karen; Mann, Michael; Charbonneau, Patrick

2015-03-01

Hydrodynamic-like flows are observed in biological systems as varied as bacteria, insects, birds, fish, and mammals. Both the phenomenology (e.g. front instabilities, milling motions) and the interaction types (hydrodynamic, direct contact, psychological, excluded-volume) strongly vary between systems, but a question common to all of them is to understand the role of particle-scale fluctuations in controlling large-scale rheological behaviors. We will address these questions through experiments on a new system, Tyrolichus casei (cheese mites), which live in dense, self-mixing colonies composed of a mixture of living mites and inert flour/detritus. In experiments performed in a Hele-Shaw geometry, we observe that the rheology of a colony is strongly dependent on the relative concentration of active and inactive particles. In addition to spreading flows, we also observe that the system can generate convective circulation and auto-compaction.

Slow dynamics in translation-invariant quantum lattice models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michailidis, Alexios A.; Žnidarič, Marko; Medvedyeva, Mariya; Abanin, Dmitry A.; Prosen, Tomaž; Papić, Z.

2018-03-01

Many-body quantum systems typically display fast dynamics and ballistic spreading of information. Here we address the open problem of how slow the dynamics can be after a generic breaking of integrability by local interactions. We develop a method based on degenerate perturbation theory that reveals slow dynamical regimes and delocalization processes in general translation invariant models, along with accurate estimates of their delocalization time scales. Our results shed light on the fundamental questions of the robustness of quantum integrable systems and the possibility of many-body localization without disorder. As an example, we construct a large class of one-dimensional lattice models where, despite the absence of asymptotic localization, the transient dynamics is exceptionally slow, i.e., the dynamics is indistinguishable from that of many-body localized systems for the system sizes and time scales accessible in experiments and numerical simulations.

Ion acceleration in electrostatic collisionless shock: on the optimal density profile for quasi-monoenergetic beams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boella, E.; Fiúza, F.; Novo, A. Stockem

Here, a numerical study on ion acceleration in electrostatic shock waves is presented, with the aim of determining the best plasma configuration to achieve quasi-monoenergetic ion beams in laser-driven systems. It was recently shown that tailored near-critical density plasmas characterized by a long-scale decreasing rear density profile lead to beams with low energy spread (Fiúza et al 2012 Phys. Rev. Lett. 109 215001). In this work, a detailed parameter scan investigating different plasma scale lengths is carried out. As result, the optimal plasma spatial scale length that allows for minimizing the energy spread while ensuring a significant reflection of ionsmore » by the shock is identified. Furthermore, a new configuration where the required profile has been obtained by coupling micro layers of different densities is proposed. Lastly, results show that this new engineered approach is a valid alternative, guaranteeing a low energy spread with a higher level of controllability.« less

Ion acceleration in electrostatic collisionless shock: on the optimal density profile for quasi-monoenergetic beams

DOE PAGES

Boella, E.; Fiúza, F.; Novo, A. Stockem; ...

2018-02-01

Here, a numerical study on ion acceleration in electrostatic shock waves is presented, with the aim of determining the best plasma configuration to achieve quasi-monoenergetic ion beams in laser-driven systems. It was recently shown that tailored near-critical density plasmas characterized by a long-scale decreasing rear density profile lead to beams with low energy spread (Fiúza et al 2012 Phys. Rev. Lett. 109 215001). In this work, a detailed parameter scan investigating different plasma scale lengths is carried out. As result, the optimal plasma spatial scale length that allows for minimizing the energy spread while ensuring a significant reflection of ionsmore » by the shock is identified. Furthermore, a new configuration where the required profile has been obtained by coupling micro layers of different densities is proposed. Lastly, results show that this new engineered approach is a valid alternative, guaranteeing a low energy spread with a higher level of controllability.« less

Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David; Ruff, Gary A.; Ferkul, Paul V.; Olson, Sandra; Fernandez-Pello, A. Carlos; T'ien, James S.; Torero, Jose L.; Cowlard, Adam J.; Rouvreau, Sebastien; Minster, Olivier;

Landscape Evolution in South Texas Savannas: Impact of Woody Encroachment on Land-Surface Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basant, S.; Wilcox, B. P.

2017-12-01

South Texas shrubland savannas have seen extensive woody encroachment over the last century. The ecosystem is largely spread over the coastal sediments typified by subtle elevation differences which are marked by bands of thick vegetation. Together, they form a dendritic pattern of vegetation which resembles a drainage network. We hypothesize that these vegetation shifts from grassland to woodlands began with the woody encroachment of drainage networks first. This was helped mainly by two factors, a) cattle grazing, b) the undulating feature of the landscape, c) periodic high intensity storms every few years resulting in large overland flows. We propose that the overland flows generated by these periodic storms provided a `subsidy' of extra water accounting for the differential rate of biomass production in lowlands. We also propose that with the continued woody encroachment, the extent of redistribution of water has changed in extent, and in scale triggering vegetation dynamics which are more controlled at patch scales. Soil moisture data was collected for over a year using neutron moisture meter for 40 points spread over a micro catchment. Plot scale runoff and interception data was sampled for the same catchment. USGS historical streamflow data from nearby creeks was used to confirm the periodic trend of runoff generation. Control exerted by microtopography of the site was accounted by using DEM at 1m resolution. Soil water storage was found to be consistently higher for uplands with open areas while lower for wooded patches but the upland sites also exhibited variability based on the slope and soil texture. Runoff generated also varied on shrub cover, slope and soil order, but higher for areas with previous records of grazing. Most runoff events were < 2mm except for 2 hurricane events in our records which generated more than 100mm of runoff. This points to the importance the role of rainfall intensity and the scale of runoff redistribution in providing 'subsidies' which together mediates heterogeneity in biomass cover. We believe that these processes are continuously shifting since the woody encroachment began on this landscape. This highlights the need for a better understanding and acknowledgement of patch scale variabiliy in water, biomass productivity and processes which mediate such variability.

The large-scale removal of mammalian invasive alien species in Northern Europe.

PubMed

Robertson, Peter A; Adriaens, Tim; Lambin, Xavier; Mill, Aileen; Roy, Sugoto; Shuttleworth, Craig M; Sutton-Croft, Mike

2017-02-01

Numerous examples exist of successful mammalian invasive alien species (IAS) eradications from small islands (<10 km 2 ), but few from more extensive areas. We review 15 large-scale removals (mean area 2627 km 2 ) from Northern Europe since 1900, including edible dormouse, muskrat, coypu, Himalayan porcupine, Pallas' and grey squirrels and American mink, each primarily based on daily checking of static traps. Objectives included true eradication or complete removal to a buffer zone, as distinct from other programmes that involved local control to limit damage or spread. Twelve eradication/removal programmes (80%) were successful. Cost increased with and was best predicted by area, while the cost per unit area decreased; the number of individual animals removed did not add significantly to the model. Doubling the area controlled reduced cost per unit area by 10%, but there was no evidence that cost effectiveness had increased through time. Compared with small islands, larger-scale programmes followed similar patterns of effort in relation to area. However, they brought challenges when defining boundaries and consequent uncertainties around costs, the definition of their objectives, confirmation of success and different considerations for managing recolonisation. Novel technologies or increased use of volunteers may reduce costs. Rapid response to new incursions is recommended as best practice rather than large-scale control to reduce the environmental, financial and welfare costs. © 2016 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Crown copyright. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Magnetorotational dynamo action in the shearing box

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Justin; Boldyrev, Stanislav

2017-09-01

Magnetic dynamo action caused by the magnetorotational instability is studied in the shearing-box approximation with no imposed net magnetic flux. Consistent with recent studies, the dynamo action is found to be sensitive to the aspect ratio of the box: it is much easier to obtain in tall boxes (stretched in the direction normal to the disc plane) than in long boxes (stretched in the radial direction). Our direct numerical simulations indicate that the dynamo is possible in both cases, given a large enough magnetic Reynolds number. To explain the relatively larger effort required to obtain the dynamo action in a long box, we propose that the turbulent eddies caused by the instability most efficiently fold and mix the magnetic field lines in the radial direction. As a result, in the long box the scale of the generated strong azimuthal (stream-wise directed) magnetic field is always comparable to the scale of the turbulent eddies. In contrast, in the tall box the azimuthal magnetic flux spreads in the vertical direction over a distance exceeding the scale of the turbulent eddies. As a result, different vertical sections of the tall box are permeated by large-scale non-zero azimuthal magnetic fluxes, facilitating the instability. In agreement with this picture, the cases when the dynamo is efficient are characterized by a strong intermittency of the local azimuthal magnetic fluxes.

Genome-environment association study suggests local adaptation to climate at the regional scale in Fagus sylvatica.

PubMed

Pluess, Andrea R; Frank, Aline; Heiri, Caroline; Lalagüe, Hadrien; Vendramin, Giovanni G; Oddou-Muratorio, Sylvie

2016-04-01

The evolutionary potential of long-lived species, such as forest trees, is fundamental for their local persistence under climate change (CC). Genome-environment association (GEA) analyses reveal if species in heterogeneous environments at the regional scale are under differential selection resulting in populations with potential preadaptation to CC within this area. In 79 natural Fagus sylvatica populations, neutral genetic patterns were characterized using 12 simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers, and genomic variation (144 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) out of 52 candidate genes) was related to 87 environmental predictors in the latent factor mixed model, logistic regressions and isolation by distance/environmental (IBD/IBE) tests. SSR diversity revealed relatedness at up to 150 m intertree distance but an absence of large-scale spatial genetic structure and IBE. In the GEA analyses, 16 SNPs in 10 genes responded to one or several environmental predictors and IBE, corrected for IBD, was confirmed. The GEA often reflected the proposed gene functions, including indications for adaptation to water availability and temperature. Genomic divergence and the lack of large-scale neutral genetic patterns suggest that gene flow allows the spread of advantageous alleles in adaptive genes. Thereby, adaptation processes are likely to take place in species occurring in heterogeneous environments, which might reduce their regional extinction risk under CC. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Large-scale natural gradient tracer test in sand and gravel, Cape Cod, Massachusetts: 1. Experimental design and observed tracer movement

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeBlanc, Denis R.; Garabedian, Stephen P.; Hess, Kathryn M.; Gelhar, Lynn W.; Quadri, Richard D.; Stollenwerk, Kenneth G.; Wood, Warren W.

1991-01-01

A large-scale natural gradient tracer experiment was conducted on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, to examine the transport and dispersion of solutes in a sand and gravel aquifer. The nonreactive tracer, bromide, and the reactive tracers, lithium and molybdate, were injected as a pulse in July 1985 and monitored in three dimensions as they moved as far as 280 m down-gradient through an array of multilevel samplers. The bromide cloud moved horizontally at a rate of 0.42 m per day. It also moved downward about 4 m because of density-induced sinking early in the test and accretion of areal recharge from precipitation. After 200 m of transport, the bromide cloud had spread more than 80 m in the direction of flow, but was only 14 m wide and 4–6 m thick. The lithium and molybdate clouds followed the same path as the bromide cloud, but their rates of movement were retarded about 50% relative to bromide movement because of sorption onto the sediments.

Membranes for redox flow battery applications.

PubMed

Prifti, Helen; Parasuraman, Aishwarya; Winardi, Suminto; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2012-06-19

The need for large scale energy storage has become a priority to integrate renewable energy sources into the electricity grid. Redox flow batteries are considered the best option to store electricity from medium to large scale applications. However, the current high cost of redox flow batteries impedes the wide spread adoption of this technology. The membrane is a critical component of redox flow batteries as it determines the performance as well as the economic viability of the batteries. The membrane acts as a separator to prevent cross-mixing of the positive and negative electrolytes, while still allowing the transport of ions to complete the circuit during the passage of current. An ideal membrane should have high ionic conductivity, low water intake and excellent chemical and thermal stability as well as good ionic exchange capacity. Developing a low cost, chemically stable membrane for redox flow cell batteries has been a major focus for many groups around the world in recent years. This paper reviews the research work on membranes for redox flow batteries, in particular for the all-vanadium redox flow battery which has received the most attention.

Seabirds supply nitrogen to reef-building corals on remote Pacific islets.

PubMed

Lorrain, Anne; Houlbrèque, Fanny; Benzoni, Francesca; Barjon, Lucie; Tremblay-Boyer, Laura; Menkes, Christophe; Gillikin, David P; Payri, Claude; Jourdan, Hervé; Boussarie, Germain; Verheyden, Anouk; Vidal, Eric

2017-06-16

Seabirds concentrate nutrients from large marine areas on their nesting islands playing an important ecological role in nutrient transfer between marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here we investigate the role of guano on corals reefs across scales by analyzing the stable nitrogen isotopic (δ 15 N) values of the scleractinian coral Pocillopora damicornis on fringing reefs around two Pacific remote islets with large seabird colonies. Marine stations closest to the seabird colonies had higher nitrate + nitrite concentrations compared to more distant stations. Coral and zooxanthellae δ 15 N values were also higher at these sites, suggesting that guano-derived nitrogen is assimilated into corals and contributes to their nitrogen requirements. The spatial extent of guano influence was however restricted to a local scale. Our results demonstrate that seabird-derived nutrients not only spread across the terrestrial ecosystem, but also affect components of the adjacent marine ecosystem. Further studies are now needed to assess if this nutrient input has a positive or negative effect for corals. Such studies on remote islets also open fresh perspectives to understand how nutrients affect coral reefs isolated from other anthropogenic stressors.

Membranes for Redox Flow Battery Applications

PubMed Central

Prifti, Helen; Parasuraman, Aishwarya; Winardi, Suminto; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2012-01-01

The need for large scale energy storage has become a priority to integrate renewable energy sources into the electricity grid. Redox flow batteries are considered the best option to store electricity from medium to large scale applications. However, the current high cost of redox flow batteries impedes the wide spread adoption of this technology. The membrane is a critical component of redox flow batteries as it determines the performance as well as the economic viability of the batteries. The membrane acts as a separator to prevent cross-mixing of the positive and negative electrolytes, while still allowing the transport of ions to complete the circuit during the passage of current. An ideal membrane should have high ionic conductivity, low water intake and excellent chemical and thermal stability as well as good ionic exchange capacity. Developing a low cost, chemically stable membrane for redox flow cell batteries has been a major focus for many groups around the world in recent years. This paper reviews the research work on membranes for redox flow batteries, in particular for the all-vanadium redox flow battery which has received the most attention. PMID:24958177

New perspectives on self-similarity for shallow thrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denolle, Marine A.; Shearer, Peter M.

2016-09-01

Scaling of dynamic rupture processes from small to large earthquakes is critical to seismic hazard assessment. Large subduction earthquakes are typically remote, and we mostly rely on teleseismic body waves to extract information on their slip rate functions. We estimate the P wave source spectra of 942 thrust earthquakes of magnitude Mw 5.5 and above by carefully removing wave propagation effects (geometrical spreading, attenuation, and free surface effects). The conventional spectral model of a single-corner frequency and high-frequency falloff rate does not explain our data, and we instead introduce a double-corner-frequency model, modified from the Haskell propagating source model, with an intermediate falloff of f-1. The first corner frequency f1 relates closely to the source duration T1, its scaling follows M0∝T13 for Mw<7.5, and changes to M0∝T12 for larger earthquakes. An elliptical rupture geometry better explains the observed scaling than circular crack models. The second time scale T2 varies more weakly with moment, M0∝T25, varies weakly with depth, and can be interpreted either as expressions of starting and stopping phases, as a pulse-like rupture, or a dynamic weakening process. Estimated stress drops and scaled energy (ratio of radiated energy over seismic moment) are both invariant with seismic moment. However, the observed earthquakes are not self-similar because their source geometry and spectral shapes vary with earthquake size. We find and map global variations of these source parameters.

How complexity science can inform scale-up and spread in health care: understanding the role of self-organization in variation across local contexts.

PubMed

Lanham, Holly Jordan; Leykum, Luci K; Taylor, Barbara S; McCannon, C Joseph; Lindberg, Curt; Lester, Richard T

2013-09-01

Health care systems struggle to scale-up and spread effective practices across diverse settings. Failures in scale-up and spread (SUS) are often attributed to a lack of consideration for variation in local contexts among different health care delivery settings. We argue that SUS occurs within complex systems and that self-organization plays an important role in the success, or failure, of SUS. Self-organization is a process whereby local interactions give rise to patterns of organizing. These patterns may be stable or unstable, and they evolve over time. Self-organization is a major contributor to local variations across health care delivery settings. Thus, better understanding of self-organization in the context of SUS is needed. We re-examine two cases of successful SUS: 1) the application of a mobile phone short message service intervention to improve adherence to medications during HIV treatment scale up in resource-limited settings, and 2) MRSA prevention in hospital inpatient settings in the United States. Based on insights from these cases, we discuss the role of interdependencies and sensemaking in leveraging self-organization in SUS initiatives. We argue that self-organization, while not completely controllable, can be influenced, and that improving interdependencies and sensemaking among SUS stakeholders is a strategy for facilitating self-organization processes that increase the probability of spreading effective practices across diverse settings. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Clonal Spread in Second Growth Stands of Coast Redwood, Sequoia sempervirens

Treesearch

Vladimir Douhovnikoff; Richard S. Dodd

2007-01-01

Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) is one of the rare conifers to reproduce successfully through clonal spread. The importance of this mode of reproduction in stand development is largely unknown. Understanding the importance of clonal spread and the spatial structure of clones is crucial for stand management strategies that would aim to maximize...

Fast and Accurate Detection of Spread Source in Large Complex Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

the patient one in epidemics, or source of rumor spreading in social network. Pinto, Thiran and Vetterli introduced an algorithm (PTVA) to solve the...important case of this problem in which a limited set of nodes act as observers and report times at which the spread reached them. PTVA uses all

Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

2014-05-01

Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the fire suppression system. This project proposes to explore an innovative combination of remote sensing and fire spread models in order to 1) better understand the interactions of fire spread drivers that lead to large wildfires; 2) identify the spatio-temporal frames in which large wildfires can be suppressed more efficiently, and 3) explore the essential steps towards an operational use of both tools to assist fire suppression decisions. Preliminary results combine MODIS active-fire data and burn scar perimeters, to derive the main fire spread paths for the 10 largest wildfires that occurred in Portugal between 2001 and 2012. Fire growth and behavior simulations of some of those wildfires are assessed using the active fires data. Results are also compared with the major fire paths to understand the main drivers of fire propagation, through their interactions with topography, vegetation and meteorology. These combined results are also used for spatial and temporal identification of opportunity windows for a more efficient suppression intervention for each fire event. The approach shows promising results, providing a valuable reconstruction of the fire events and retrieval of important parameters related to the complex spread patterns of individual fire events.

Hot-spot evolution and the global tectonics of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. J.; Grimm, R. E.; Malin, M. C.

1991-05-01

The global tectonics of Venus may be dominated by plumes rising from the mantle and impinging on the lithosphere, giving rise to hot spots. Global sea-floor spreading does not take place, but direct convective coupling of mantle flow fields to the lithosphere leads to regional-scale deformation and may allow lithospheric transport on a limited scale. A hot-spot evolutionary sequence comprises (1) a broad domal uplift resulting from a rising mantle plume, (2) massive partial melting in the plume head and generation of a thickened crust or crustal plateau, (3) collapse of dynamic topography, and (4) creep spreading of the crustal plateau. Crust on Venus is produced by gradual vertical differentiation with little recycling rather than by the rapid horizontal creation and consumption characteristic of terrestrial sea-floor spreading.

Hot-spot evolution and the global tectonics of Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Roger J.; Grimm, Robert E.; Malin, Michael C.

1991-01-01

The global tectonics of Venus may be dominated by plumes rising from the mantle and impinging on the lithosphere, giving rise to hot spots. Global sea-floor spreading does not take place, but direct convective coupling of mantle flow fields to the lithosphere leads to regional-scale deformation and may allow lithospheric transport on a limited scale. A hot-spot evolutionary sequence comprises (1) a broad domal uplift resulting from a rising mantle plume, (2) massive partial melting in the plume head and generation of a thickened crust or crustal plateau, (3) collapse of dynamic topography, and (4) creep spreading of the crustal plateau. Crust on Venus is produced by gradual vertical differentiation with little recycling rather than by the rapid horizontal creation and consumption characteristic of terrestrial sea-floor spreading.

Hot-spot evolution and the global tectonics of venus.

PubMed

Phillips, R J; Grimm, R E; Malin, M C

1991-05-03

The global tectonics of Venus may be dominated by plumes rising from the mantle and impinging on the lithosphere, giving rise to hot spots. Global sea-floor spreading does not take place, but direct convective coupling of mantle flow fields to the lithosphere leads to regional-scale deformation and may allow lithospheric transport on a limited scale. A hot-spot evolutionary sequence comprises (i) a broad domal uplift resulting from a rising mantle plume, (ii) massive partial melting in the plume head and generation of a thickened crust or crustal plateau, (iii) collapse of dynamic topography, and (iv) creep spreading of the crustal plateau. Crust on Venus is produced by gradual vertical differentiation with little recycling rather than by the rapid horizontal creation and consumption characteristic of terrestrial sea-floor spreading.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhdankin, Vladimir; Boldyrev, Stanislav; Perez, Jean Carlos

We investigate the intermittency of energy dissipation in magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence by identifying dissipative structures and measuring their characteristic scales. We find that the probability distribution of energy dissipation rates exhibits a power-law tail with an index very close to the critical value of –2.0, which indicates that structures of all intensities contribute equally to energy dissipation. We find that energy dissipation is uniformly spread among coherent structures with lengths and widths in the inertial range. At the same time, these structures have thicknesses deep within the dissipative regime. As the Reynolds number is increased, structures become thinner and moremore » numerous, while the energy dissipation continues to occur mainly in large-scale coherent structures. This implies that in the limit of high Reynolds number, energy dissipation occurs in thin, tightly packed current sheets which nevertheless span a continuum of scales up to the system size, exhibiting features of both coherent structures and nanoflares previously conjectured as a coronal heating mechanism.« less

Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons

PubMed Central

Peacock, Richard D.; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis

1991-01-01

With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system. PMID:28184121

Data for Room Fire Model Comparisons.

PubMed

Peacock, Richard D; Davis, Sanford; Babrauskas, Vytenis

1991-01-01

With the development of models to predict fire growth and spread in buildings, there has been a concomitant evolution in the measurement and analysis of experimental data in real-scale fires. This report presents the types of analyses that can be used to examine large-scale room fire test data to prepare the data for comparison with zone-based fire models. Five sets of experimental data which can be used to test the limits of a typical two-zone fire model are detailed. A standard set of nomenclature describing the geometry of the building and the quantities measured in each experiment is presented. Availability of ancillary data (such as smaller-scale test results) is included. These descriptions, along with the data (available in computer-readable form) should allow comparisons between the experiment and model predictions. The base of experimental data ranges in complexity from one room tests with individual furniture items to a series of tests conducted in a multiple story hotel equipped with a zoned smoke control system.

A nationwide quality improvement project to accelerate Ghana's progress toward Millennium Development Goal Four: design and implementation progress.

PubMed

Twum-Danso, Nana A Y; Akanlu, George B; Osafo, Enoch; Sodzi-Tettey, Sodzi; Boadu, Richard O; Atinbire, Solomon; Adondiwo, Ane; Amenga-Etego, Isaac; Ashagbley, Francis; Boadu, Eric A; Dasoberi, Ireneous; Kanyoke, Ernest; Yabang, Elma; Essegbey, Ivan T; Adjei, George A; Buckle, Gilbert B; Awoonor-Williams, J Koku; Nang-Beifubah, Alexis; Twumasi, Akwasi; McCannon, C Joseph; Barker, Pierre M

2012-12-01

The gap between evidence-based guidelines and practice of care is reflected, in low- and middle-income countries, by high rates of maternal and child mortality and limited effectiveness of large-scale programing to decrease those rates. We designed a phased, rapid, national scale-up quality improvement (QI) intervention to accelerate the achievement of Millennium Development Goal Four in Ghana. Our intervention promoted systems thinking, active participation of managers and frontline providers, generation and testing of local change ideas using iterative learning from transparent district and local data, local ownership and sustainability. After 50 months of implementation, we have completed two prototype learning phases and have begun regional spread phases to all health facilities in all 38 districts of the three northernmost regions and all 29 Catholic hospitals in the remaining regions of the country. To accelerate the spread of improvement, we developed 'change packages' of rigorously tested process changes along the continuum of care from pregnancy to age 5 in both inpatient and outpatient settings. The primary successes for the project so far include broad and deep adoption of QI by local stakeholders for improving system performance, widespread capacitation of leaders, managers and frontline providers in QI methods, incorporation of local ideas into change packages and successful scale-up to approximately 25% of the country's districts in 3 years. Implementation challenges include variable leadership uptake and commitment at the district level, delays due to recruiting and scheduling barriers, weak data systems and repeated QI training due to high staff turnover.

Scaling properties in time-varying networks with memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyewon; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

2015-12-01

The formation of network structure is mainly influenced by an individual node's activity and its memory, where activity can usually be interpreted as the individual inherent property and memory can be represented by the interaction strength between nodes. In our study, we define the activity through the appearance pattern in the time-aggregated network representation, and quantify the memory through the contact pattern of empirical temporal networks. To address the role of activity and memory in epidemics on time-varying networks, we propose temporal-pattern coarsening of activity-driven growing networks with memory. In particular, we focus on the relation between time-scale coarsening and spreading dynamics in the context of dynamic scaling and finite-size scaling. Finally, we discuss the universality issue of spreading dynamics on time-varying networks for various memory-causality tests.

Scaling of Directed Dynamical Small-World Networks with Random Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Chen-Ping; Xiong, Shi-Jie; Tian, Ying-Jie; Li, Nan; Jiang, Ke-Sheng

2004-05-01

A dynamical model of small-world networks, with directed links which describe various correlations in social and natural phenomena, is presented. Random responses of sites to the input message are introduced to simulate real systems. The interplay of these ingredients results in the collective dynamical evolution of a spinlike variable S(t) of the whole network. The global average spreading length s and average spreading time s are found to scale as p-αln(N with different exponents. Meanwhile, S(t) behaves in a duple scaling form for N≫N*: S˜f(p-βqγt˜), where p and q are rewiring and external parameters, α, β, and γ are scaling exponents, and f(t˜) is a universal function. Possible applications of the model are discussed.

Contribution of human, climate and biophysical drivers to the spatial distribution of wildfires in a French Mediterranean area: where do wildfires start and spread?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent; Moebius, Flavia

2013-04-01

Understanding the contribution of biophysical and human drivers to the spatial distribution of fires at regional scale has many ecological and economical implications in a context of on-going global changes. However these fire drivers often interact in complex ways, such that disentangling and assessing the relative contribution of human vs. biophysical factors remains a major challenge. Indeed, the identification of biophysical conditions that promote fires are confused by the inherent stochasticity in fire occurrences and fire spread on the one hand and, by the influence of human factors -through both fire ignition and suppression - on the other. Moreover, different factors may drive fire ignition and fire spread, in such a way that the areas with the highest density of ignitions may not coincide with those where large fires occur. In the present study, we investigated the drivers of fires ignition and spread in a Mediterranean area of southern France. We used a 17 years fire database (the PROMETHEE database from 1989-2006) combined with a set of 8 explanatory variables describing the spatial pattern in ignitions, vegetation and fire weather. We first isolated the weather conditions affecting the fire occurrence and their spread using a statistical model of the weather/fuel water status for each fire event.. The results of these statistical models were used to map the fire weather in terms of average number of days with suitable conditions for burning. Then, we used Boosted regression trees (BRT) models to assess the relative importance of the different variables on the distribution of wildfire with different sizes and to assess the relationship between each variables and fire occurrence and spread probabilities. We found that human activities explained up to 50 % of the spatial distribution of fire ignitions (SDI). The distribution of large fire was chiefly explained by fuel characteristics (about 40%). Surprisingly, the weather indices explained only 20 % of the SDI and its contribution does no vary according to the size of considered fire events. These results suggest that changes in fuel characteristics and human settlements/ activities, rather than weather conditions are the most likely to modify the future distribution of fires in this Mediterranean area. These conclusions provide useful information on the scenarios that could arise from the interaction of changes in climate and land cover for the Mediterranean area in the near future.

Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haifeng; Zhang, Jie; Zhou, Changsong; Small, Michael; Wang, Binghong

2010-02-01

It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; ...

2018-03-23

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Cavity-actuated supersonic mixing and combustion control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, K.H.; Schadow, K.C.

1994-11-01

Compressible shear layers in supersonic jets are quite stable and spread very slowly compared with incompressible shear layers. In this paper, a novel use of a cavity-actuated forcing technique is demonstrated for increasing the spreading rate of compressible shear layers. Periodic modulations were applied to Mach 2.0 reacting and nonreacting jets using the cavities that were attached at the exit of a circular supersonic nozzle. The effect of cavity-actuated forcing was studied as a function of the cavity geometry, in particular, the length and the depth of the cavity. When the cavities were tuned to certain frequencies, large-scale highly coherentmore » structures were produced in the shear layers substantially increasing the growth rate. The cavity excitation was successfully applied to both cold and hot supersonic jets. When applied to cold Mach 2.0 air jets. the cavity-actuated forcing increased the spreading rate of the initial shear layers with the convective Mach number (M[sub C]) of 0.85 by a factor of three. For high-temperature Mach 2.0 jets with M[sub C] of 1.4, a 50% increase in the spreading rate was observed with the forcing. Finally, the cavity-actuated forcing was applied to reacting supersonic jets with ethylene-oxygen afterburning. For this case, the forcing caused a 20%--30% reduction in the afterburning flame length and modified the afterburning intensity significantly. The direction of the modification depended on the characteristics of the afterburning flames. The intensity was reduced with forcing for unstable flames with weak afterburning while it was increased for stable flames with strong afterburning.« less

Health risks from large-scale water pollution: trends in Central Asia.

PubMed

Törnqvist, Rebecka; Jarsjö, Jerker; Karimov, Bakhtiyor

2011-02-01

Limited data on the pollution status of spatially extensive water systems constrain health-risk assessments at basin-scales. Using a recipient measurement approach in a terminal water body, we show that agricultural and industrial pollutants in groundwater-surface water systems of the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (covering the main part of Central Asia) yield cumulative health hazards above guideline values in downstream surface waters, due to high concentrations of copper, arsenic, nitrite, and to certain extent dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). Considering these high-impact contaminants, we furthermore perform trend analyses of their upstream spatial-temporal distribution, investigating dominant large-scale spreading mechanisms. The ratio between parent DDT and its degradation products showed that discharges into or depositions onto surface waters are likely to be recent or ongoing. In river water, copper concentrations peak during the spring season, after thawing and snow melt. High spatial variability of arsenic concentrations in river water could reflect its local presence in the top soil of nearby agricultural fields. Overall, groundwaters were associated with much higher health risks than surface waters. Health risks can therefore increase considerably, if the downstream population must switch to groundwater-based drinking water supplies during surface water shortage. Arid regions are generally vulnerable to this problem due to ongoing irrigation expansion and climate changes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial Distribution of Coffee Wilt Disease Under Roguing and Replanting Conditions: A Case Study from Kaweri Estate in Uganda.

PubMed

Pinard, F; Makune, S E; Campagne, P; Mwangi, J

2016-11-01

Based on time and spatial dynamic considerations, this study evaluates the potential role of short- and long-distance dispersal in the spread of coffee wilt disease (CWD) in a large commercial Robusta coffee estate in Uganda (Kaweri, 1,755 ha) over a 4-year period (2008 to 2012). In monthly surveys, total disease incidence, expansion of infection foci, and the occurrence of isolated infected trees were recorded and submitted to spatial analysis. Incidence was higher and disease progression faster in old coffee plantings compared with young plantings, indicating a lack of efficiency of roguing for reducing disease development in old plantings. At large spatial scale (approximately 1 km), Moran indices (both global and local) revealed the existence of clusters characterized by contrasting disease incidences. This suggested that local environmental conditions were heterogeneous or there were spatial interactions among blocks. At finer spatial scale (approximately 200 m), O-ring statistics revealed positive correlation between distant infection sites across distances as great as 60 m. Although these observations indicate the role of short-distance dispersal in foci expansion, dispersal at greater distances (>20 m) appeared to also contribute to both initiation of new foci and disease progression at coarser spatial scales. Therefore, our results suggested the role of aerial dispersal in CWD progression.

Use of single large or several small policies as strategies to manage people-park interactions.

PubMed

Mackenzie, Catrina A; Baird, Timothy D; Hartter, Joel

2014-12-01

Biodiversity conservation has been criticized for undermining or ignoring social well-being. Currently efforts to mutually promote social justice, rural development, and biodiversity conservation, which have been contentious and yielded mixed results, continue to spread despite a general dearth of effective management strategies. We contend that social and economic concerns should be integral to conservation planning and propose that the scale of these phenomena is also critical. To evaluate the merit of this proposal, we adopted and expanded a conservation management strategy framework developed by Joel Heinen and examined how population density, economic disparity, and ethnic heterogeneity vary spatially surrounding 2 contrasting protected areas in East Africa: Kibale National Park in Uganda and Tarangire National Park in Tanzania. Analyses of demographic, wealth, and ethnicity data from regional censuses and household surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010 indicated that choice of scale (landscape or community) changed the management strategies recommended by the model. Therefore, "several small" people-park management strategies varying around a given protected area may be more appropriate than a "single large" people-park strategy applied across an entire protected area. Correspondingly, scale adjusted Heinen recommendations offered new strategies for effective conservation management within these human landscapes not incorporated in current in situ management plans. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Best Practice for Spreading Innovation: Let the Practitioners Do It

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gassenheimer, Cathy

2013-01-01

Alabama Best Practices Center (ABPC) was formed to help educators spread innovation and scale up successful teaching and learning practices. ABPC is the professional development arm of A+ Education Partnership, a statewide business/community/education nonprofit founded in 1991 to advocate for excellent public schools. Since 1999, ABPC has…

Dynamics and linear stability of thermocapillary spreading films on homogeneous and micropatterned surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Jeffrey Michael

The recent focus on microfluidic devices has generated substantial interest in small-scale transport phenomena. Because the surface to volume ratio scales inversely with the characteristic length scale, surface forces dominate in microscale systems. In particular, these forces can be manipulated to regulate the motion of thin liquid films. The dynamics and stability of thermocapillary spreading films are theoretically investigated in this dissertation for flow on homogeneous and chemically or topographically patterned substrates. Because the governing equations for spreading films driven by other forces are analogous, the approach and results are valid for general lubrication flows. Experiments have shown that films spreading on homogeneous substrates can undergo a flow transition from a uniform front at the advancing solid-liquid-vapor contact line to an array of parallel rivulets. This instability is investigated via a non-modal, transient analysis because the relevant linearized disturbance operators for spatially inhomogeneous thin films are nonnormal. Stability results for three different contact line models are compared. This investigation of thermocapillary driven spreading is also pursued in the context of characterizing a novel, open-architecture microfluidic device based on flow confinement to completely wetting microstripes through chemical micropatterning of the substrate. The resulting lateral curvature of the fluid significantly influences the dynamics of the liquid. Applied to the dip coating of these patterned substrates, hydrodynamic scaling arguments are used to derive a replacement for the classical Landau-Levich result for homogeneous substrates. Thermocapillary flow along wetting microstripes is then characterized. The lateral curvature modifies the expected spreading velocity and film profile and also suppresses the capillary ridge and instability observed at the advancing contact line on homogeneous surfaces. In addition, a lubrication-based model is derived to quantify the significant effects of lateral film curvature and fluid confinement on the transverse diffusive broadening in two microstreams merging at a ⋎ -junction. Finally, the analysis is extended to lubrication flow over chemically uniform but topographically patterned substrates. A transient analysis is employed to determine the evolution of disturbances to the capillary ridges induced by the substrate topography.

An intraorganizational model for developing and spreading quality improvement innovations.

PubMed

Kellogg, Katherine C; Gainer, Lindsay A; Allen, Adrienne S; OʼSullivan, Tatum; Singer, Sara J

Recent policy reforms encourage quality improvement (QI) innovations in primary care, but practitioners lack clear guidance regarding spread inside organizations. We designed this study to identify how large organizations can facilitate intraorganizational spread of QI innovations. We conducted ethnographic observation and interviews in a large, multispecialty, community-based medical group that implemented three QI innovations across 10 primary care sites using a new method for intraorganizational process development and spread. We compared quantitative outcomes achieved through the group's traditional versus new method, created a process model describing the steps in the new method, and identified barriers and facilitators at each step. The medical group achieved substantial improvement using its new method of intraorganizational process development and spread of QI innovations: standard work for rooming and depression screening, vaccine error rates and order compliance, and Pap smear error rates. Our model details nine critical steps for successful intraorganizational process development (set priorities, assess the current state, develop the new process, and measure and refine) and spread (develop support, disseminate information, facilitate peer-to-peer training, reinforce, and learn and adapt). Our results highlight the importance of utilizing preexisting organizational structures such as established communication channels, standardized roles, common workflows, formal authority, and performance measurement and feedback systems when developing and spreading QI processes inside an organization. In particular, we detail how formal process advocate positions in each site for each role can facilitate the spread of new processes. Successful intraorganizational spread is possible and sustainable. Developing and spreading new QI processes across sites inside an organization requires creating a shared understanding of the necessary process steps, considering the barriers that may arise at each step, and leveraging preexisting organizational structures to facilitate intraorganizational process development and spread.

An intraorganizational model for developing and spreading quality improvement innovations

PubMed Central

Kellogg, Katherine C.; Gainer, Lindsay A.; Allen, Adrienne S.; O'Sullivan, Tatum; Singer, Sara J.

2017-01-01

Background: Recent policy reforms encourage quality improvement (QI) innovations in primary care, but practitioners lack clear guidance regarding spread inside organizations. Purpose: We designed this study to identify how large organizations can facilitate intraorganizational spread of QI innovations. Methodology/Approach: We conducted ethnographic observation and interviews in a large, multispecialty, community-based medical group that implemented three QI innovations across 10 primary care sites using a new method for intraorganizational process development and spread. We compared quantitative outcomes achieved through the group’s traditional versus new method, created a process model describing the steps in the new method, and identified barriers and facilitators at each step. Findings: The medical group achieved substantial improvement using its new method of intraorganizational process development and spread of QI innovations: standard work for rooming and depression screening, vaccine error rates and order compliance, and Pap smear error rates. Our model details nine critical steps for successful intraorganizational process development (set priorities, assess the current state, develop the new process, and measure and refine) and spread (develop support, disseminate information, facilitate peer-to-peer training, reinforce, and learn and adapt). Our results highlight the importance of utilizing preexisting organizational structures such as established communication channels, standardized roles, common workflows, formal authority, and performance measurement and feedback systems when developing and spreading QI processes inside an organization. In particular, we detail how formal process advocate positions in each site for each role can facilitate the spread of new processes. Practice Implications: Successful intraorganizational spread is possible and sustainable. Developing and spreading new QI processes across sites inside an organization requires creating a shared understanding of the necessary process steps, considering the barriers that may arise at each step, and leveraging preexisting organizational structures to facilitate intraorganizational process development and spread. PMID:27428788

Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

2017-09-01

Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com; Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024; Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel onmore » the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.« less

What's a Weed? Knowledge, Attitude and Behaviour of Park Visitors about Weeds.

PubMed

Ansong, Michael; Pickering, Catherine

2015-01-01

Weeds are a major threat to biodiversity globally degrading natural areas of high conservation value. But what are our attitudes about weeds and their management including weeds in national parks? Do we know what a weed is? Do we consider weeds a problem? Do we support their management? Are we unintentionally spreading weeds in parks? To answer these questions, we surveyed visitors entering a large popular national park near the city of Brisbane, Australia. Park visitors were knowledgeable about weeds; with >75% correctly defining weeds as 'plants that grow where they are not wanted'. About 10% of the visitors, however, provided their own sophisticated definitions. This capacity to define weeds did not vary with people's age, sex or level of education. We constructed a scale measuring visitors' overall concern about weeds in parks using the responses to ten Likert scale statements. Over 85% of visitors were concerned about weeds with older visitors, hikers, and those who could correctly define weeds more concerned than their counterparts. The majority think visitors unintentionally introduce seeds into parks, with many (63%) having found seeds on their own clothing. However, over a third disposed of these seeds in ways that could facilitate weed spread. Therefore, although most visitors were knowledgeable and concerned about weeds, and support their control, there is a clear need for more effective communication regarding the risk of visitors unintentionally dispersing weed seeds in parks.

The Evolution of Ebola virus: Insights from the 2013–2016 Epidemic

PubMed Central

Holmes, Edward C.; Dudas, Gytis; Rambaut, Andrew; Andersen, Kristian G.

2017-01-01

Preface The 2013–2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa was of unprecedented magnitude and changed our perspective on this lethal but sporadically emerging virus. This outbreak also marked the beginning of large-scale real-time molecular epidemiology. Herein, we show how evolutionary analyses of Ebola virus genome sequences provided key insights into virus origins, evolution, and spread during the epidemic. We provide basic scientists, epidemiologists, medical practitioners, and other outbreak responders with an enhanced understanding of the utility and limitations of pathogen genomic sequencing. This will be crucially important in our attempts to track and control future infectious disease outbreaks. PMID:27734858

Experimental studies of combustion in a two dimensional free shear layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitz, R. W.; Daily, J. W.

1979-01-01

The effect of combustion on the turbulent free shear layer formed at a rearward facing step has been studied. Schlieren movies confirm the importance of large scale vortices in determining entrainment and mixing behavior. The movies, long exposure schlieren photographs, and laser anemometry velocity profiles are used to observe the spreading rate of the layer and to study the vortex formation process. It is concluded that to first order, the primary effect of combustion is felt through the change in density ratio across the layer and acceleration of the flow due to volumetric expansion of the fluid in a confined duct.

Aspergillosis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friend, M.

1999-01-01

Aspergillosis is a respiratory tract infection caused by fungi of the genus Aspergillus, of which A. fumigatus is the primary species responsible for infections in wild birds (Fig. 13.1). Aspergillosis is not contagious (it will not spread from bird to bird), and it may be an acute, rapidly fatal disease or a more chronic disease. Both forms of the disease are commonly seen in free-ranging birds, but the acute form is generally responsible for large-scale mortality events in adult birds and for brooder pneumonia in hatching birds. Aspergillus sp. also produce aflatoxins (see Chapter 37, Mycotoxins), but the significance of those toxins in the ability of the fungus to cause disease in birds is unknown.

Regional spatial-temporal spread of citrus huanglongbing is affected by rain in Florida.

PubMed

Shimwela, Mpoki; Schubert, Timothy S; Albritton, Matthew; Halbert, Susan E; Jones, Debra J; Sun, Xiaoan; Roberts, Pamela; Singer, Burton; Lee, Wen Suk; Jones, Jeffrey B; Ploetz, Randy; van Bruggen, Ariena H C

2018-06-06

Citrus huanglongbing (HLB), associated with Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (Las), disseminated by Asian Citrus Psyllid (ACP), has devastated citrus in Florida since 2005. Data on HLB occurrence were stored in databases (2005-2012). Cumulative HLB-positive citrus blocks were subjected to kernel density analysis and kriging. Relative disease incidence per county was calculated by dividing HLB numbers by relative tree numbers and maximum incidence. Spatio-temporal HLB distributions were correlated with weather. Relative HLB incidence correlated positively with rainfall. The focus expansion rate was 1626 m month-1, similar to that in Brazil. Relative HLB incidence in counties with primarily large groves increased at a lower rate (0.24 year-1) than in counties with smaller groves in hotspot areas (0.67 year-1), confirming reports that large-scale HLB management may slow epidemic progress.

Effect of LES models on the entrainment of a passive scalar in a turbulent planar jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambel Lopes, Diogo; da Silva, Carlos; Reis, Ricardo; Raman, Venkat

2011-11-01

Direct and large-eddy simulations (DNS/LES) of turbulent planar jets are used to study the role of subgrid-scale models in the integral characteristics of the passive scalar mixing in a jet. Specifically the effect of subgrid-scale models in the jet spreading rate and centreline passive scalar decay rates are assessed and compared. The modelling of the subgrid-scale fluxes is particularly challenging in the turbulent/nonturbulent (T/NT) region that divides the two regions in the jet flow: the outer region where the flow is irrotational and the inner region where the flow is turbulent. It has been shown that important Reynolds stresses exist near the T/NT interface and that these stresses determine in part the mixing and combustion rates in jets. The subgrid scales of motion near the T/NT interface are far from equilibrium and contain an important fraction of the total kinetic energy. Model constants used in several subgrid-scale models such as the Smagorinsky and the gradient models need to be corrected near the jet edge. The procedure used to obtain the dynamic Smagorinsky constant is not able to cope with the intermittent nature of this region.

Bait preference by the Argentine ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Haleakala National Park, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Reimer, Neil J.

1998-01-01

The Argentine ant, Linepithema humile (Mayr), has proven to be a threat to native arthropod species in Haleakala National Park, Maui, HI, and is also a potential threat to the park's native flora. As it continues to expand its range, an effort has been undertaken to eradicate it, or at the least, control its spread. The 1st part of this effort focused on finding a bait carrier for subsequent toxicant-based control tests. A year-long bait preference test was implemented at each of the ant's 2 infestation sites in Haleakala National Park, in which 6 solid baits and 2 liquid baits were assessed for attractiveness and feasibility for large scale control. At both sites, a toxicant-free formulation of Maxforce, a protein-based granular bait made from ground silkworm, Bombyx mori (L.), pupae, and a 25% sugar water solution were the most attractive baits. Ants took more Maxforce (without toxicant) and sugar water than all other baits, including honey granules and a fish protein bait. Sugar water, however, is difficult to distribute over large natural areas. Maxforce was therefore concluded to be the best bait carrier for toxicant-based control at Haleakala National Park because of its attractiveness and its ease for large scale broadcast dispersal.

Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

2015-10-01

In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

Dynamics of epidemic spreading model with drug-resistant variation on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Zhang, Wu; Dong, Jing

2018-03-01

Considering the influence of the virus' drug-resistant variation, a novel SIVRS (susceptible-infected-variant-recovered-susceptible) epidemic spreading model with variation characteristic on scale-free networks is proposed in this paper. By using the mean-field theory, the spreading dynamics of the model is analyzed in detail. Then, the basic reproductive number R0 and equilibriums are derived. Studies show that the existence of disease-free equilibrium is determined by the basic reproductive number R0. The relationships between the basic reproductive number R0, the variation characteristic and the topology of the underlying networks are studied in detail. Furthermore, our studies prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the permanence of epidemic and the global attractivity of endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the analytical results.

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

Use of incomplete energy recovery for the energy compression of large energy spread charged particle beams

DOEpatents

Douglas, David R [Newport News, VA; Benson, Stephen V [Yorktown, VA

2007-01-23

A method of energy recovery for RF-base linear charged particle accelerators that allows energy recovery without large relative momentum spread of the particle beam involving first accelerating a waveform particle beam having a crest and a centroid with an injection energy E.sub.o with the centroid of the particle beam at a phase offset f.sub.o from the crest of the accelerating waveform to an energy E.sub.full and then recovering the beam energy centroid a phase f.sub.o+Df relative to the crest of the waveform particle beam such that (E.sub.full-E.sub.o)(1+cos(f.sub.o+Df))>dE/2 wherein dE=the full energy spread, dE/2=the full energy half spread and Df=the wave form phase distance.

Chasing Perfection: Should We Reduce Model Uncertainty in Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, G. B.; Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Lindsay, K. T.; Thomas, R. Q.

2015-12-01

Earth system model simulations of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle show large multi-model spread in the carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback parameters. Large differences among models are also seen in their simulation of global vegetation and soil C stocks and other aspects of the C cycle, prompting concern about model uncertainty and our ability to faithfully represent fundamental aspects of the terrestrial C cycle in Earth system models. Benchmarking analyses that compare model simulations with common datasets have been proposed as a means to assess model fidelity with observations, and various model-data fusion techniques have been used to reduce model biases. While such efforts will reduce multi-model spread, they may not help reduce uncertainty (and increase confidence) in projections of the C cycle over the twenty-first century. Many ecological and biogeochemical processes represented in Earth system models are poorly understood at both the site scale and across large regions, where biotic and edaphic heterogeneity are important. Our experience with the Community Land Model (CLM) suggests that large uncertainty in the terrestrial C cycle and its feedback with climate change is an inherent property of biological systems. The challenge of representing life in Earth system models, with the rich diversity of lifeforms and complexity of biological systems, may necessitate a multitude of modeling approaches to capture the range of possible outcomes. Such models should encompass a range of plausible model structures. We distinguish between model parameter uncertainty and model structural uncertainty. Focusing on improved parameter estimates may, in fact, limit progress in assessing model structural uncertainty associated with realistically representing biological processes. Moreover, higher confidence may be achieved through better process representation, but this does not necessarily reduce uncertainty.

Divergent responses of tropical cyclone genesis factors to strong volcanic eruptions at different latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi; Wang, Huijun

2018-03-01

To understand the behaviors of tropical cyclones (TCs), it is very important to explore how TCs respond to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and natural forcings. Volcanic eruptions are a major natural forcing mechanism because they inject sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere, which modulate the global climate by absorbing and scattering solar radiation. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is thought to be reduced following strong tropical eruptions, but whether the response of TCs varies with the locations of the volcanoes and the different ocean basins remains unknown. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble to investigate the response of the large-scale environmental factors that spawn TCs to strong volcanic eruptions at different latitudes. A composite analysis indicates that tropical and northern hemisphere volcanic eruptions lead to significantly unfavorable conditions for TC genesis over the whole Pacific basin and the North Atlantic during the 3 years post-eruption, relative to the preceding 3 years. Southern hemisphere volcanic eruptions result in obviously unfavorable conditions for TC formation over the southwestern Pacific, but more favorable conditions over the North Atlantic. The mean response over the Indian Ocean is generally muted and insignificant. It should be noted that volcanic eruptions impact on environmental conditions through both the direct effect (i.e. on radiative forcing) and the indirect effect (i.e. on El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which is not differentiated in this study. In addition, the spread of the TC genesis response is considerably large for each category of eruptions over each ocean basin, which is also seen in the observational/proxy-based records. This large spread is attributed to the differences in stratospheric aerosol distributions, initial states and eruption intensities, and makes the short-term forecast of TC activity following the next large eruption challenging.

Intermountain Cyclogenesis: a Climatology and Multiscale Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tiros Peijiun

1995-11-01

A detailed study of Intermountain cyclones over the western United States is conducted through climatological and case studies. An eleven-year (1976-1986) statistical survey shows that the Nevada cyclogenesis is mainly a springtime (March, April) event while a secondary maximum of cyclogenesis frequency is found in November. Nearly 75% of the Nevada cyclogenesis events (177 out of 237 cases) take place under large-scale westerly to southerly flow aloft across the Sierra Nevada Mountains, while 24% of the events (57 out of 237 cases) occur under northwesterly flow aloft. A composite study of these two types of the flow is shown to demonstrate how differences in large-scale topography affect Intermountain cyclogenesis processes. The result from a case study of 9-11 February 1984 reveals that an antecedent Nevada lee trough formed as a result of large-scale southwesterly flow aloft interacting with the underlying terrain well before the surface and upper-level troughs moved onshore. Subsequent cyclogenesis took place in situ with the axis of the trough as the center of large-scale quasi-geostrophic ascent/positive potential vorticity advection began to spread across the Sierra Nevada Mountains. As the cyclone moved downstream, it was observed to weaken well before reaching the Continental Divide while a new cyclonic development occurred east of the Rocky Mountains. It is shown that the weakening of the Intermountain cyclone was associated with the ongoing interaction between the Intermountain cyclone and large-scale topography and the progressive outrunning of the large-scale dynamical forcing aloft away from the surface cyclone center. An investigation of the large-scale evolution for the 26-29 January 1980 case, which developed beneath the northwesterly flow aloft, further reveals that the underlying topography plays two major roles in contributing to the initial cyclogenesis: (1) to block and to retard cold, stable air east of the Continental Divide from rushing into the Great Basin region, and (2) to produce differential pressure falls across the Sierra Nevada Mountains (more along the eastern slopes) in response to increasing cross -mountain flow. Numerous transient shortwaves in the midtroposphere rapidly move across the GB and the Rocky Mountains into the Plains States, while the Intermountain cyclone moves slower than to the disturbances aloft. There is no downstream lee trough/cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies during the investigation period since the leeside is characterized by cold, stable air. The third case study is made of an 11-14 December 1987 Intermountain cyclogenesis case which took place in an area of relatively warm and less stable environment near the Arizona-New Mexico border beneath northwesterly flow aloft. The ensuing interaction between the large -scale flow and underlying terrain allowed the surface cyclone to remain quasi-stationary for its entire 36 h life span. We also document a cold-season small-scale Catalina eddy development in the coastal southern California waters in this case. The eddy formed as the equatorward and northeasterly flow upstream of the coastal (San Rafael and Saint Ynez) mountains increased in the lower troposphere. Weak large-scale ascent in the mid- and upper-troposphere over the incipient eddy environment provided evidence of the orographic nature of the small -scale cyclone. The eddy was eventually displaced seaward and weakened with the arrival of powerful large-scale subsidence and increasing northeasterly downslope flow at the lower levels that reached the coastal waters.

What it takes to invade grassland ecosystems: traits, introduction history and filtering processes

PubMed Central

Carboni, Marta; Münkemüller, Tamara; Lavergne, Sébastien; Choler, Philippe; Borgy, Benjamin; Violle, Cyrille; Essl, Franz; Roquet, Cristina; Munoz, François; Consortium, DivGrass; Thuiller, Wilfried

2016-01-01

Whether the success of alien species can be explained by their functional or phylogenetic characteristics remains unresolved because of data limitations, scale issues and weak quantifications of success. Using permanent grasslands across France (50,000 vegetation-plots, 2000 species, 130 aliens) and building on the Rabinowitz’ classification to quantify spread, we showed that phylogenetic and functional similarities to natives were the most important correlates of invasion success compared to intrinsic functional characteristics and introduction history. Results contrasted between spatial scales and components of invasion success. Widespread and common aliens were similar to co-occurring natives at coarse scales (indicating environmental filtering), but dissimilar at finer scales (indicating local competition). In contrast, regionally widespread but locally rare aliens showed patterns of competitive exclusion already at coarse scale. Quantifying trait differences between aliens and natives and distinguishing the components of invasion success improved our ability to understand and potentially predict alien spread at multiple scales. PMID:26689431

Quantum and classical ripples in graphene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hašík, Juraj; Tosatti, Erio; MartoÅák, Roman

2018-04-01

Thermal ripples of graphene are well understood at room temperature, but their quantum counterparts at low temperatures are in need of a realistic quantitative description. Here we present atomistic path-integral Monte Carlo simulations of freestanding graphene, which show upon cooling a striking classical-quantum evolution of height and angular fluctuations. The crossover takes place at ever-decreasing temperatures for ever-increasing wavelengths so that a completely quantum regime is never attained. Zero-temperature quantum graphene is flatter and smoother than classical graphene at large scales yet rougher at short scales. The angular fluctuation distribution of the normals can be quantitatively described by coexistence of two Gaussians, one classical strongly T -dependent and one quantum about 2° wide, of zero-point character. The quantum evolution of ripple-induced height and angular spread should be observable in electron diffraction in graphene and other two-dimensional materials, such as MoS2, bilayer graphene, boron nitride, etc.

Strength and scales of itinerant spin fluctuations in 3 d paramagnetic metals

DOE PAGES

Wysocki, Aleksander L.; Kutepov, Andrey; Antropov, Vladimir P.

2016-10-10

The full spin density fluctuations (SDF) spectra in 3d paramagnetic metals are analyzed from first principles using the linear response technique. Using the calculated complete wave vector and energy dependence of the dynamic spin susceptibility, we obtain the most important, but elusive, characteristic of SDF in solids: on-site spin correlator (SC). We demonstrate that the SDF have a mixed character consisting of interacting collective and single-particle excitations of similar strength spreading continuously over the entire Brillouin zone and a wide energy range up to femtosecond time scales. These excitations cannot be adiabatically separated and their intrinsically multiscale nature should alwaysmore » be taken into account for a proper description of metallic systems. Altogether, in all studied systems, despite the lack of local moment, we found a very large SC resulting in an effective fluctuating moment of the order of several Bohr magnetons.« less

Strength and scales of itinerant spin fluctuations in 3 d paramagnetic metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wysocki, Aleksander L.; Kutepov, Andrey; Antropov, Vladimir P.

The full spin density fluctuations (SDF) spectra in 3d paramagnetic metals are analyzed from first principles using the linear response technique. Using the calculated complete wave vector and energy dependence of the dynamic spin susceptibility, we obtain the most important, but elusive, characteristic of SDF in solids: on-site spin correlator (SC). We demonstrate that the SDF have a mixed character consisting of interacting collective and single-particle excitations of similar strength spreading continuously over the entire Brillouin zone and a wide energy range up to femtosecond time scales. These excitations cannot be adiabatically separated and their intrinsically multiscale nature should alwaysmore » be taken into account for a proper description of metallic systems. Altogether, in all studied systems, despite the lack of local moment, we found a very large SC resulting in an effective fluctuating moment of the order of several Bohr magnetons.« less

Integrating the landscape epidemiology and genetics of RNA viruses: rabies in domestic dogs as a model.

PubMed

Brunker, K; Hampson, K; Horton, D L; Biek, R

2012-12-01

Landscape epidemiology and landscape genetics combine advances in molecular techniques, spatial analyses and epidemiological models to generate a more real-world understanding of infectious disease dynamics and provide powerful new tools for the study of RNA viruses. Using dog rabies as a model we have identified how key questions regarding viral spread and persistence can be addressed using a combination of these techniques. In contrast to wildlife rabies, investigations into the landscape epidemiology of domestic dog rabies requires more detailed assessment of the role of humans in disease spread, including the incorporation of anthropogenic landscape features, human movements and socio-cultural factors into spatial models. In particular, identifying and quantifying the influence of anthropogenic features on pathogen spread and measuring the permeability of dispersal barriers are important considerations for planning control strategies, and may differ according to cultural, social and geographical variation across countries or continents. Challenges for dog rabies research include the development of metapopulation models and transmission networks using genetic information to uncover potential source/sink dynamics and identify the main routes of viral dissemination. Information generated from a landscape genetics approach will facilitate spatially strategic control programmes that accommodate for heterogeneities in the landscape and therefore utilise resources in the most cost-effective way. This can include the efficient placement of vaccine barriers, surveillance points and adaptive management for large-scale control programmes.

Plant Invasions in China – Challenges and Chances

PubMed Central

Axmacher, Jan C.; Sang, Weiguo

2013-01-01

Invasive species cause serious environmental and economic harm and threaten global biodiversity. We set out to investigate how quickly invasive plant species are currently spreading in China and how their resulting distribution patterns are linked to socio-economic and environmental conditions. A comparison of the invasive plant species density (log species/log area) reported in 2008 with current data shows that invasive species were originally highly concentrated in the wealthy, southeastern coastal provinces of China, but they are currently rapidly spreading inland. Linear regression models based on the species density and turnover of invasive plants as dependent parameters and principal components representing key socio-economic and environmental parameters as predictors indicate strong positive links between invasive plant density and the overall phytodiversity and associated climatic parameters. Principal components representing socio-economic factors and endemic plant density also show significant positive links with invasive plant density. Urgent control and eradication measures are needed in China's coastal provinces to counteract the rapid inland spread of invasive plants. Strict controls of imports through seaports need to be accompanied by similarly strict controls of the developing horticultural trade and underpinned by awareness campaigns for China's increasingly affluent population to limit the arrival of new invaders. Furthermore, China needs to fully utilize its substantial native phytodiversity, rather than relying on exotics, in current large-scale afforestation projects and in the creation of urban green spaces. PMID:23691164

Red Sea Outflow Experiment (REDSOX): Descent and initial spreading of Red Sea Water in the northwestern Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bower, A.; Johns, W.; Peters, H.; Fratantoni, D.

2003-04-01

Two comprehensive surveys were carried out during 2001 to investigate the dense overflow and initial spreading of Red Sea Water (RSW) in the Gulf of Aden. The cruises were timed to coincide with the climatological maximum (February) and minimum (August) periods of outflow transport. The surveys included high-resolution CTD/lowered ADCP/shipboard ADCP observations in the descending plume and in the western gulf, and trajectories from 50 acoustically-tracked RAFOS floats released at the center of the equilibrated RSW (650 m). The measurements reveal a complicated descending plume structure in the western gulf with three main pathways for the high salinity RSW. Different mixing intensities along these pathways lead to variable penetration depths of the Red Sea plume between 450-900 m in the Gulf of Aden. The observations also revealed the hydrographic and velocity structure of large, energetic, deep-reaching mesoscale eddies in the gulf that fundamentally impact the spreading rates and pathways of RSW. Both cyclones and anticyclones were observed, with horizontal scales up to 250 km and azimuthal speeds as high as 0.5 m/s. The eddies appear to reach nearly to the sea floor and entrain RSW from the western gulf at mid-depth. Post-cruise analysis of SeaWiffs imagery suggests that some of these eddies form in the Indian Ocean and propagate into the gulf.

Multiple UAV Cooperation for Wildfire Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zhongjie

Wildfires have been a major factor in the development and management of the world's forest. An accurate assessment of wildfire status is imperative for fire management. This thesis is dedicated to the topic of utilizing multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to cooperatively monitor a large-scale wildfire. This is achieved through wildfire spreading situation estimation based on on-line measurements and wise cooperation strategy to ensure efficiency. First, based on the understanding of the physical characteristics of the wildfire propagation behavior, a wildfire model and a Kalman filter-based method are proposed to estimate the wildfire rate of spread and the fire front contour profile. With the enormous on-line measurements from on-board sensors of UAVs, the proposed method allows a wildfire monitoring mission to benefit from on-line information updating, increased flexibility, and accurate estimation. An independent wildfire simulator is utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Second, based on the filter analysis, wildfire spreading situation and vehicle dynamics, the influence of different cooperation strategies of UAVs to the overall mission performance is studied. The multi-UAV cooperation problem is formulated in a distributed network. A consensus-based method is proposed to help address the problem. The optimal cooperation strategy of UAVs is obtained through mathematical analysis. The derived optimal cooperation strategy is then verified in an independent fire simulation environment to verify its effectiveness.

Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

PubMed

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-03-31

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

Liquid spreading on ceramic-coated carbon nanotube films and patterned microstructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hangbo; Hart, A. John

2015-11-01

We study the capillary-driven liquid spreading behavior on films and microstructures of ceramic-coated vertically aligned carbon nanotubes (CNTs) fabricated on quartz substrates. The nanoscale porosity and micro-scale dimensions of the CNT structures, which can be precisely varied by the fabrication process, enable quantitative measurements that can be related to analytical models of the spreading behavior. Moreover, the conformal alumina coating by atomic layer deposition (ALD) prevents capillary-induced deformation of the CNTs upon meniscus recession, which has complicated previous studies of this topic. Washburn-like liquid spreading behavior is observed on non-patterned CNT surfaces, and is explained using a scaling model based on the balance of capillary driving force and the viscous drag force. Using these insights, we design patterned surfaces with controllable spreading rates and study the contact line pinning-depinning behavior. The nanoscale porosity, controllable surface chemistry, and mechanical stability of coated CNTs provide significantly enhanced liquid-solid interfacial area compared to solid microstructures. As a result, these surface designs may be useful for applications such as phase-change heat transfer and electrochemical energy storage. Funding for this project is provided by the National Institutes of Health and the MIT Center for Clean Water and Clean Energy supported by the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals.

Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-01-01

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises. PMID:21483794

The Effect of Anchor Test Construction on Scale Drift

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Antal, Judit; Proctor, Thomas P.; Melican, Gerald J.

2014-01-01

In common-item equating the anchor block is generally built to represent a miniature form of the total test in terms of content and statistical specifications. The statistical properties frequently reflect equal mean and spread of item difficulty. Sinharay and Holland (2007) suggested that the requirement for equal spread of difficulty may be too…

The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

2018-03-01

In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

An examination of flame shape related to convection heat transfer in deep-fuel beds

Treesearch

Kara M. Yedinak; Jack D. Cohen; Jason M. Forthofer; Mark A. Finney

2010-01-01

Fire spread through a fuel bed produces an observable curved combustion interface. This shape has been schematically represented largely without consideration for fire spread processes. The shape and dynamics of the flame profile within the fuel bed likely reflect the mechanisms of heat transfer necessary for the pre-heating and ignition of the fuel during fire spread....

Spreading gossip in social networks.

PubMed

Lind, Pedro G; da Silva, Luciano R; Andrade, José S; Herrmann, Hans J

2007-09-01

We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

Spreading gossip in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lind, Pedro G.; da Silva, Luciano R.; Andrade, José S., Jr.; Herrmann, Hans J.

2007-09-01

We study a simple model of information propagation in social networks, where two quantities are introduced: the spread factor, which measures the average maximal reachability of the neighbors of a given node that interchange information among each other, and the spreading time needed for the information to reach such a fraction of nodes. When the information refers to a particular node at which both quantities are measured, the model can be taken as a model for gossip propagation. In this context, we apply the model to real empirical networks of social acquaintances and compare the underlying spreading dynamics with different types of scale-free and small-world networks. We find that the number of friendship connections strongly influences the probability of being gossiped. Finally, we discuss how the spread factor is able to be applied to other situations.

Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

PubMed

Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

2004-09-01

A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

Survival of the faucet snail after chemical disinfection, pH extremes, and heated water bath treatments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitchell, A.J.; Cole, Rebecca A.

2008-01-01

The faucet snail Bithynia tentaculata, a nonindigenous aquatic snail from Eurasia, was introduced into Lake Michigan in 1871 and has spread to the mid-Atlantic states, the Great Lakes region, Montana, and most recently, the Mississippi River. The faucet snail serves as intermediate host for several trematodes that have caused large-scale mortality among water birds, primarily in the Great Lakes region and Montana. It is important to limit the spread of the faucet snail; small fisheries equipment can serve as a method of snail distribution. Treatments with chemical disinfection, pH extremes, and heated water baths were tested to determine their effectiveness as a disinfectant for small fisheries equipment. Two treatments eliminated all test snails: (1) a 24-h exposure to Hydrothol 191 at a concentration of at least 20 mg/L and (2) a treatment with 50°C heated water for 1 min or longer. Faucet snails were highly resistant to ethanol, NaCl, formalin, Lysol, potassium permanganate, copper sulfate, Baquacil, Virkon, household bleach, and pH extremes (as low as 1 and as high as 13).

An investigation of flame spread over shallow liquid pools in microgravity and nonair environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Howard D.; Sotos, Raymond G.

1991-01-01

Experiments of interest to combustion fundamentals and spacecraft fire safety investigated flame spread of alcohol fuels over shallow, 15 cm diameter pools in a 5.2 sec free-fall, microgravity facility. Results showed that, independent O2 concentrations, alcohol fuel, and diluent types, microgravity flame spread rates were nearly identical to those corresponding normal-gravity flames for conditions where the normal gravity flames spread uniformly. This similarity indicated buoyancy-related convection in either phase does not affect flame spread, at least for the physical scale of the experiments. However, microgravity extinction coincided with the onset conditions for pulsating spread in normal gravity, implicating gas phase, buoyant flow as a requirement for pulsating spread. When the atmospheric nitrogen was replaced with argon, the conditions for the onset of normal-gravity pulsating flame spread and microgravity flame extinction were changed, in agreement with the expected lowering of the flash point through the thermal properties of the diluent. Helium-diluted flames, however, showed unexpected results with a shift to apparently higher flash-point temperatures and high normal gravity pulsation amplitudes.

An Investigation of Flame Spread over Shallow Liquid Pools in Microgravity and Nonair Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Howard D.; Sotos, Raymond G.

1989-01-01

Experiments of interest to combustion fundamentals and spacecraft fire safety investigated flame spread of alcohol fuels over shallow, 15 cm diameter pools in a 5.2 sec free-fall, microgravity facility. Results showed that, independent O2 concentration, alcohol fuel, and diluent types, microgravity flame spread rates were nearly identical to those corresponding normal-gravity flames for conditions where the normal gravity flames spread uniformly. This similarity indicated buoyancy-related convection in either phase does not affect flame spread, at least for the physical scale of the experiments. However, microgravity extinction coincided with the onset conditions for pulsating spread in normal gravity, implicating gas phase, buoyant flow as a requirement for pulsating spread. When the atmospheric nitrogen was replaced with argon, the conditions for the onset of normal-gravity pulsating flame spread and microgravity flame extinction were changed, in agreement with the expected lowering of the flash point through the thermal properties of the diluent. Helium-diluted flames, however, showed unexpected results with a shift to apparently higher flash-point temperatures and high normal gravity pulsation amplitudes.

Dynamic phenomena and human activity in an artificial society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabowski, A.; Kruszewska, N.; Kosiński, R. A.

2008-12-01

We study dynamic phenomena in a large social network of nearly 3×104 individuals who interact in the large virtual world of a massive multiplayer online role playing game. On the basis of a database received from the online game server, we examine the structure of the friendship network and human dynamics. To investigate the relation between networks of acquaintances in virtual and real worlds, we carried out a survey among the players. We show that, even though the virtual network did not develop as a growing graph of an underlying network of social acquaintances in the real world, it influences it. Furthermore we find very interesting scaling laws concerning human dynamics. Our research shows how long people are interested in a single task and how much time they devote to it. Surprisingly, exponent values in both cases are close to -1 . We calculate the activity of individuals, i.e., the relative time daily devoted to interactions with others in the artificial society. Our research shows that the distribution of activity is not uniform and is highly correlated with the degree of the node, and that such human activity has a significant influence on dynamic phenomena, e.g., epidemic spreading and rumor propagation, in complex networks. We find that spreading is accelerated (an epidemic) or decelerated (a rumor) as a result of superspreaders’ various behavior.

Automated biodosimetry using digital image analysis of fluorescence in situ hybridization specimens.

PubMed

Castleman, K R; Schulze, M; Wu, Q

1997-11-01

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of metaphase chromosome spreads is valuable for monitoring the radiation dose to circulating lymphocytes. At low dose levels, the number of cells that must be examined to estimate aberration frequencies is quite large. An automated microscope that can perform this analysis autonomously on suitably prepared specimens promises to make practical the large-scale studies that will be required for biodosimetry in the future. This paper describes such an instrument that is currently under development. We use metaphase specimens in which the five largest chromosomes have been hybridized with different-colored whole-chromosome painting probes. An automated multiband fluorescence microscope locates the spreads and counts the number of chromosome components of each color. Digital image analysis is used to locate and isolate the cells, count chromosome components, and estimate the proportions of abnormal cells. Cells exhibiting more than two chromosomal fragments in any color correspond to a clastogenic event. These automatically derived counts are corrected for statistical bias and used to estimate the overall rate of chromosome breakage. Overlap of fluorophore emission spectra prohibits isolation of the different chromosomes into separate color channels. Image processing effectively isolates each fluorophore to a single monochrome image, simplifying the task of counting chromosome fragments and reducing the error in the algorithm. Using proportion estimation, we remove the bias introduced by counting errors, leaving accuracy restricted by sample size considerations alone.

Tectonics and geology of spreading ridge subduction at the Chile Triple Junction: a synthesis of results from Leg 141 of the Ocean Drilling Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Behrmann, J.H.; Lewis, S.D.; Cande, S.C.

1994-01-01

An active oceanic spreading ridge is being subducted beneath the South American continent at the Chile Triple Junction. This process has played a major part in the evolution of most of the continental margins that border the Pacific Ocean basin. A combination of high resolution swath bathymetric maps, seismic reflection profiles and drillhole and core data from five sites drilled during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 141 provide important data that define the tectonic, structural and stratigraphic effects of this modern example of spreading ridge subduction. A change from subduction accretion to subduction erosion occurs along-strike of the South American forearc. This change is prominently expressed by normal faulting, forearc subsidence, oversteepening of topographic slopes and intensive sedimentary mass wasting, overprinted on older signatures of sediment accretion, overthrusting and uplift processes in the forearc. Data from drill sites north of the triple junction (Sites 859-861) show that after an important phase of forearc building in the early to late Pliocene, subduction accretion had ceased in the late Pliocene. Since that time sediment on the downgoing oceanic Nazca plate has been subducted. Site 863 was drilled into the forearc in the immediate vicinity of the triple junction above the subducted spreading ridge axis. Here, thick and intensely folded and faulted trench slope sediments of Pleistocene age are currently involved in the frontal deformation of the forearc. Early faults with thrust and reverse kinematics are overprinted by later normal faults. The Chile Triple Junction is also the site of apparent ophiolite emplacement into the South American forearc. Drilling at Site 862 on the Taitao Ridge revealed an offshore volcanic sequence of Plio-Pleistocene age associated with the Taitao Fracture Zone, adjacent to exposures of the Pliocene-aged Taitao ophiolite onshore. Despite the large-scale loss of material from the forearc at the triple junction, ophiolite emplacement produces a large topographic promontory in the forearc immediately after ridge subduction, and represents the first stage of forearc rebuilding. ?? 1994 Springer-Verlag.

Repeated landscape-scale treatments following fire suppress a non-native annual grass and promote recovery of native perennial vegetation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Long, A. Lexine; Decker, Cheryl E.; Johnson, Katie A.; Walsh, Kathleen; Miller, Mark E.

2015-01-01

Invasive non-native species pose a large threat to restoration efforts following large-scale disturbances. Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) is a non-native annual grass in the western U.S. that both spreads quickly following fire and accelerates the fire cycle. Herbicide and seeding applications are common restoration practices to break the positive fire-invasion feedback loop and recover native perennial species, but their interactive effects have infrequently been tested at the landscape-scale and repeated in time to encourage long-lasting effects. We determined the efficacy of repeated post-fire application of the herbicide imazapic and seeding treatments to suppressBromus abundance and promote perennial vegetation recovery. We found that the selective herbicide reduced Bromus cover by ~30 % and density by >50 % across our study sites, but had a strong initial negative effect on seeded species. The most effective treatment to promote perennial seeded species cover was seeding them alone followed by herbicide application 3 years later when the seeded species had established. The efficacy of the treatments was strongly influenced by water availability, as precipitation positively affected the density and cover of Bromus; soil texture and aspect secondarily influenced Bromus abundance and seeded species cover by modifying water retention in this semi-arid region. Warmer temperatures positively affected the non-native annual grass in the cool-season, but negatively affected seeded perennial species in the warm-season, suggesting an important role of seasonality in a region projected to experience large increases in warming in the future. Our results highlight the importance of environmental interactions and repeated treatments in influencing restoration outcomes at the landscape-scale.

Coarse-Grain Bandwidth Estimation Scheme for Large-Scale Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheung, Kar-Ming; Jennings, Esther H.; Sergui, John S.

2013-01-01

A large-scale network that supports a large number of users can have an aggregate data rate of hundreds of Mbps at any time. High-fidelity simulation of a large-scale network might be too complicated and memory-intensive for typical commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) tools. Unlike a large commercial wide-area-network (WAN) that shares diverse network resources among diverse users and has a complex topology that requires routing mechanism and flow control, the ground communication links of a space network operate under the assumption of a guaranteed dedicated bandwidth allocation between specific sparse endpoints in a star-like topology. This work solved the network design problem of estimating the bandwidths of a ground network architecture option that offer different service classes to meet the latency requirements of different user data types. In this work, a top-down analysis and simulation approach was created to size the bandwidths of a store-and-forward network for a given network topology, a mission traffic scenario, and a set of data types with different latency requirements. These techniques were used to estimate the WAN bandwidths of the ground links for different architecture options of the proposed Integrated Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) Network. A new analytical approach, called the "leveling scheme," was developed to model the store-and-forward mechanism of the network data flow. The term "leveling" refers to the spreading of data across a longer time horizon without violating the corresponding latency requirement of the data type. Two versions of the leveling scheme were developed: 1. A straightforward version that simply spreads the data of each data type across the time horizon and doesn't take into account the interactions among data types within a pass, or between data types across overlapping passes at a network node, and is inherently sub-optimal. 2. Two-state Markov leveling scheme that takes into account the second order behavior of the store-and-forward mechanism, and the interactions among data types within a pass. The novelty of this approach lies in the modeling of the store-and-forward mechanism of each network node. The term store-and-forward refers to the data traffic regulation technique in which data is sent to an intermediate network node where they are temporarily stored and sent at a later time to the destination node or to another intermediate node. Store-and-forward can be applied to both space-based networks that have intermittent connectivity, and ground-based networks with deterministic connectivity. For groundbased networks, the store-and-forward mechanism is used to regulate the network data flow and link resource utilization such that the user data types can be delivered to their destination nodes without violating their respective latency requirements.

Effects of rewiring strategies on information spreading in complex dynamic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ally, Abdulla F.; Zhang, Ning

2018-04-01

Recent advances in networks and communication services have attracted much interest to understand information spreading in social networks. Consequently, numerous studies have been devoted to provide effective and accurate models for mimicking information spreading. However, knowledge on how to spread information faster and more widely remains a contentious issue. Yet, most existing works are based on static networks which limit the reality of dynamism of entities that participate in information spreading. Using the SIR epidemic model, this study explores and compares effects of two rewiring models (Fermi-Dirac and Linear functions) on information spreading in scale free and small world networks. Our results show that for all the rewiring strategies, the spreading influence replenishes with time but stabilizes in a steady state at later time-steps. This means that information spreading takes-off during the initial spreading steps, after which the spreading prevalence settles toward its equilibrium, with majority of the population having recovered and thus, no longer affecting the spreading. Meanwhile, rewiring strategy based on Fermi-Dirac distribution function in one way or another impedes the spreading process, however, the structure of the networks mimic the spreading, even with a low spreading rate. The worst case can be when the spreading rate is extremely small. The results emphasize that despite a big role of such networks in mimicking the spreading, the role of the parameters cannot be simply ignored. Apparently, the probability of giant degree neighbors being informed grows much faster with the rewiring strategy of linear function compared to that of Fermi-Dirac distribution function. Clearly, rewiring model based on linear function generates the fastest spreading across the networks. Therefore, if we are interested in speeding up the spreading process in stochastic modeling, linear function may play a pivotal role.

Landscape characteristics of disturbed shrubsteppe habitats in southwestern Idaho (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knick, Steven T.; Rotenberry, J.T.

1997-01-01

We compared 5 zones in shrubsteppe habitats of southwestern Idaho to determine the effect of differing disturbance combinations on landscapes that once shared historically similar disturbance regimes. The primary consequence of agriculture, wildfires, and extensive fires ignited by the military during training activities was loss of native shrubs from the landscape. Agriculture created large square blocks on the landscape, and the landscape contained fewer small patches and more large shrub patches than non-agricultural areas. In contrast, fires left a more fragmented landscape. Repeated fires did not change the distribution of patch sizes, but decreased the total area of remaining shrublands and increased the distance between remaining shrub patches that provide seed sources. Military training with tracked vehicles was associated with a landscape characterized by small, closely spaced, shrub patches. Our results support the general model hypothesized for conversion of shrublands to annual grasslands by disturbance. Larger shrub patches in our region, historically resistant to fire spread and large-scale fires because of a perennial bunchgrass understory, were more fragmented than small patches. Presence of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), an exotic annual, was positively related to landscape patchiness and negatively related to number of shrub cells. Thus, cheatgrass dominance can contribute to further fragmentation and loss of the shrub patch by facilitating spread of subsequent fires, carried by continuous fuels, through the patch. The synergistic processes of fragmentation of shrub patches by disturbance, invasion and subsequent dominance by exotic annuals, and fire are converting shrubsteppe in southwestern Idaho to a new state dominated by exotic annual grasslands and high fire frequencies.

A novel information cascade model in online social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Chao; He, Wenbo; Niu, Jianwei; Xie, Zhongyu

2016-02-01

The spread and diffusion of information has become one of the hot issues in today's social network analysis. To analyze the spread of online social network information and the attribute of cascade, in this paper, we discuss the spread of two kinds of users' decisions for city-wide activities, namely the "want to take part in the activity" and "be interested in the activity", based on the users' attention in "DouBan" and the data of the city-wide activities. We analyze the characteristics of the activity-decision's spread in these aspects: the scale and scope of the cascade subgraph, the structure characteristic of the cascade subgraph, the topological attribute of spread tree, and the occurrence frequency of cascade subgraph. On this basis, we propose a new information spread model. Based on the classical independent diffusion model, we introduce three mechanisms, equal probability, similarity of nodes, and popularity of nodes, which can generate and affect the spread of information. Besides, by conducting the experiments in six different kinds of network data set, we compare the effects of three mechanisms above mentioned, totally six specific factors, on the spread of information, and put forward that the node's popularity plays an important role in the information spread.

Ultrafast Spreading Effect Induced Rapid Cell Trapping into Porous Scaffold with Superhydrophilic Surface.

PubMed

Wang, Chenmiao; Qiao, Chunyan; Song, Wenlong; Sun, Hongchen

2015-08-19

In this contribution, superhydrophilic chitosan-based scaffolds with ultrafast spreading property were fabricated and used to improve the trapped efficiency of cells. The ultrafast spreading property allowed cells to be trapped into the internal 3D porous structures of the prepared scaffolds more quickly and effectively. Cell adhesion, growth, and proliferation were also improved, which could be attributed to the combination of UV irradiation and ultrafast spreading property. The construction of ultrafast spreading property on the scaffold surface will offer a novel way to design more effective scaffold in tissue engineering that could largely shorten the therapeutic time for patients.

Detailed seismic velocity structure of the ultra-slow spread crust at the Mid-Cayman Spreading Center from travel-time tomography and synthetic seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, J.; Van Avendonk, H. J.; Hayman, N. W.; Grevemeyer, I.; Peirce, C.

2017-12-01

The Mid-Cayman Spreading Center (MCSC), an ultraslow-spreading center in the Caribbean Sea, has formed highly variable oceanic crust. Seafloor dredges have recovered extrusive basalts in the axial deeps as well as gabbro on bathymetric highs and exhumed mantle peridotite along the only 110 km MCSC. Wide-angle refraction data were collected with active-source ocean bottom seismometers in April, 2015, along lines parallel and across the MCSC. Travel-time tomography produces relatively smooth 2-D tomographic models of compressional wave velocity. These velocity models reveal large along- and across-axis variations in seismic velocity, indicating possible changes in crustal thickness, composition, faulting, and magmatism. It is difficult, however, to differentiate between competing interpretations of seismic velocity using these tomographic models alone. For example, in some areas the seismic velocities may be explained by either thin igneous crust or exhumed, serpentinized mantle. Distinguishing between these two interpretations is important as we explore the relationships between magmatism, faulting, and hydrothermal venting at ultraslow-spreading centers. We therefore improved our constraints on the shallow seismic velocity structure of the MCSC by modeling the amplitude of seismic refractions in the wide-angle data set. Synthetic seismograms were calculated with a finite-difference method for a range of models with different vertical velocity gradients. Small-scale features in the velocity models, such as steep velocity gradients and Moho boundaries, were explored systematically to best fit the real data. With this approach, we have improved our understanding of the compressional velocity structure of the MCSC along with the geological interpretations that are consistent with three seismic refraction profiles. Line P01 shows a variation in the thinness of lower seismic velocities along the axis, indicating two segment centers, while across-axis lines P02 and P03 show variations in igneous crustal thickness and exhumed mantle in some areas.

Geometric and thermal controls on normal fault seismicity from rate-and-state friction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mark, H. F.; Behn, M. D.; Olive, J. A. L.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Seismic and geodetic observations from the last two decades have led to a growing realization that a significant amount of fault slip at plate boundaries occurs aseismically, and that the amount of aseismic displacement varies across settings. Here we investigate controls on the seismogenic behavior of crustal-scale normal faults that accommodate extensional strain at mid-ocean ridges and continental rifts. Seismic moment release rates measured along the fast-spreading East Pacific Rise suggest that the majority of fault growth occurs aseismically with almost no seismic slip. In contrast, at the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge seismic slip may represent up to 60% of the total fault displacement. Potential explanations for these variations include heterogeneous distributions of frictional properties on fault surfaces, effects of variable magma supply associated with seafloor spreading, and/or differences in fault geometry and thermal structure. In this study, we use rate-and-state friction models to study the seismic coupling coefficient (the fraction of total fault slip that occurs seismically) for normal faults at divergent plate boundaries, and investigate controls on fault behavior that might produce the variations in the coupling coefficient observed in natural systems. We find that the seismic coupling coefficient scales with W/h*, where W is the downdip width of the seismogenic area of the fault and h* is the critical earthquake nucleation size. At mid-ocean ridges, W is expected to increase with decreasing spreading rate. Thus, the observed relationship between seismic coupling and W/h* explains to first order variations in seismic coupling coefficient as a function of spreading rate. Finally, we use catalog data from the Gulf of Corinth to show that this scaling relationship can be extended into the thicker lithosphere of continental rift systems.

The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada

Treesearch

Xianli Wang; Marc-Andre Parisien; Mike D. Flannigan; Sean A. Parks; Kerry R. Anderson; John M. Little; Steve W. Taylor

2014-01-01

Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 100 - 04 km2). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily...

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

PubMed Central

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-01-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies. PMID:22822425

Variety seeking in the consumption of spread and cheese.

PubMed

Van Trijp, H C; Lähteenmäki, L; Tuorila, H

1992-04-01

Consumers' (n = 807) desire for variety, as measured by the food-specific VARSEEK scale, was related to reported usage and purchase behavior for spread and cheese. Subjects' scoring high in variety seeking tendency showed more exploratory tendencies in purchase behavior, vicarious exploration and use innovativeness than did those scoring low on the scale. Variation reported in the use of cheese was related to variety seeking tendency more strongly than the variation in the use of spreads. The variation in cheese purchases was particularly high for well-educated white collar workers between 31 and 50 years old and for female subjects living in urban areas of Finland. Some cross-product consistency in the variation in purchase behavior was found. The results suggest that certain product characteristics, such as sensory variation between alternatives, may determine whether the intrinsic desire for variety is expressed in product choice.

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-06-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

Tracing information flow on a global scale using Internet chain-letter data

PubMed Central

Liben-Nowell, David; Kleinberg, Jon

2008-01-01

Although information, news, and opinions continuously circulate in the worldwide social network, the actual mechanics of how any single piece of information spreads on a global scale have been a mystery. Here, we trace such information-spreading processes at a person-by-person level using methods to reconstruct the propagation of massively circulated Internet chain letters. We find that rather than fanning out widely, reaching many people in very few steps according to “small-world” principles, the progress of these chain letters proceeds in a narrow but very deep tree-like pattern, continuing for several hundred steps. This suggests a new and more complex picture for the spread of information through a social network. We describe a probabilistic model based on network clustering and asynchronous response times that produces trees with this characteristic structure on social-network data. PMID:18353985

Paleomagnetic constraints on deformation of superfast-spread oceanic crust exposed at Pito Deep Rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horst, A. J.; Varga, R. J.; Gee, J. S.; Karson, J. A.

2011-12-01

The uppermost oceanic crust produced at the superfast spreading (˜142 km Ma-1, full-spreading rate) southern East Pacific Rise (EPR) during the Gauss Chron is exposed in a tectonic window along the northeastern wall of the Pito Deep Rift. Paleomagnetic analysis of fully oriented dike (62) and gabbro (5) samples from two adjacent study areas yield bootstrapped mean remanence directions of 38.9° ± 8.1°, -16.7° ± 15.6°, n = 23 (Area A) and 30.4° ± 8.0°, -25.1° ± 12.9°, n = 44 (Area B), both are significantly distinct from the Geocentric Axial Dipole expected direction at 23° S. Regional tectonics and outcrop-scale structural data combined with bootstrapped remanence directions constrain models that involve a sequence of three rotations that result in dikes restored to subvertical orientations related to (1) inward-tilting of crustal blocks during spreading (Area A = 11°, Area B = 22°), (2) clockwise, vertical-axis rotation of the Easter Microplate (A = 46°, B = 44°), and (3) block tilting at Pito Deep Rift (A = 21°, B = 10°). These data support a structural model for accretion at the southern EPR in which outcrop-scale faulting and block rotation accommodates spreading-related subaxial subsidence that is generally less than that observed in crust generated at a fast spreading rate exposed at Hess Deep Rift. These data also support previous estimates for the clockwise rotation of crust adjacent to the Easter Microplate. Dike sample natural remanent magnetization (NRM) has an arithmetic mean of 5.96 A/m ± 3.76, which suggests that they significantly contribute to observed magnetic anomalies from fast- to superfast-spread crust.

Spatial and Functional Organization of Pig Trade in Different European Production Systems: Implications for Disease Prevention and Control.

PubMed

Relun, Anne; Grosbois, Vladimir; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Feliziani, Francesco; Waret-Szkuta, Agnès; Molia, Sophie; Etter, Eric Marcel Charles; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2016-01-01

Understanding the complexity of live pig trade organization is a key factor to predict and control major infectious diseases, such as classical swine fever (CSF) or African swine fever (ASF). Whereas the organization of pig trade has been described in several European countries with indoor commercial production systems, little information is available on this organization in other systems, such as outdoor or small-scale systems. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the spatial and functional organization of live pig trade in different European countries and different production systems. Data on premise characteristics and pig movements between premises were collected during 2011 from Bulgaria, France, Italy, and Spain, which swine industry is representative of most of the production systems in Europe (i.e., commercial vs. small-scale and outdoor vs. indoor). Trade communities were identified in each country using the Walktrap algorithm. Several descriptive and network metrics were generated at country and community levels. Pig trade organization showed heterogeneous spatial and functional organization. Trade communities mostly composed of indoor commercial premises were identified in western France, northern Italy, northern Spain, and north-western Bulgaria. They covered large distances, overlapped in space, demonstrated both scale-free and small-world properties, with a role of trade operators and multipliers as key premises. Trade communities involving outdoor commercial premises were identified in western Spain, south-western and central France. They were more spatially clustered, demonstrated scale-free properties, with multipliers as key premises. Small-scale communities involved the majority of premises in Bulgaria and in central and Southern Italy. They were spatially clustered and had scale-free properties, with key premises usually being commercial production premises. These results indicate that a disease might spread very differently according to the production system and that key premises could be targeted to more cost-effectively control diseases. This study provides useful epidemiological information and parameters that could be used to design risk-based surveillance strategies or to more accurately model the risk of introduction or spread of devastating swine diseases, such as ASF, CSF, or foot-and-mouth disease.

Spatial and Functional Organization of Pig Trade in Different European Production Systems: Implications for Disease Prevention and Control

PubMed Central

Relun, Anne; Grosbois, Vladimir; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Feliziani, Francesco; Waret-Szkuta, Agnès; Molia, Sophie; Etter, Eric Marcel Charles; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2016-01-01

Understanding the complexity of live pig trade organization is a key factor to predict and control major infectious diseases, such as classical swine fever (CSF) or African swine fever (ASF). Whereas the organization of pig trade has been described in several European countries with indoor commercial production systems, little information is available on this organization in other systems, such as outdoor or small-scale systems. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the spatial and functional organization of live pig trade in different European countries and different production systems. Data on premise characteristics and pig movements between premises were collected during 2011 from Bulgaria, France, Italy, and Spain, which swine industry is representative of most of the production systems in Europe (i.e., commercial vs. small-scale and outdoor vs. indoor). Trade communities were identified in each country using the Walktrap algorithm. Several descriptive and network metrics were generated at country and community levels. Pig trade organization showed heterogeneous spatial and functional organization. Trade communities mostly composed of indoor commercial premises were identified in western France, northern Italy, northern Spain, and north-western Bulgaria. They covered large distances, overlapped in space, demonstrated both scale-free and small-world properties, with a role of trade operators and multipliers as key premises. Trade communities involving outdoor commercial premises were identified in western Spain, south-western and central France. They were more spatially clustered, demonstrated scale-free properties, with multipliers as key premises. Small-scale communities involved the majority of premises in Bulgaria and in central and Southern Italy. They were spatially clustered and had scale-free properties, with key premises usually being commercial production premises. These results indicate that a disease might spread very differently according to the production system and that key premises could be targeted to more cost-effectively control diseases. This study provides useful epidemiological information and parameters that could be used to design risk-based surveillance strategies or to more accurately model the risk of introduction or spread of devastating swine diseases, such as ASF, CSF, or foot-and-mouth disease. PMID:26870738

Spreading of Annular Droplets on a Horizontal Fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xue; Ding, Zijing; Liu, Rong

2018-05-01

This paper investigates an annular droplet on a horizontal fiber. The static state and the dynamic spreading process of the droplet is analyzed. A full model describing the profile of a static droplet is derived from the energy variation principle. To study the dynamical spreading of the droplet, we derive a lubrication model which is verified by the full model. It indicates that the lubrication model is valid for a thin droplet. Results of the static droplet reveal that, when the fiber radius is very small, the droplet tends to have a spherical shape; if the fiber radius is very large, the droplet approaches to a parabolic profile. Furthermore, the time-evolution study is carried out to investigate the dynamical spreading of the droplet. It is highlighted that when the fiber radius is small, the droplet can breakup into small droplets or contract into a sharp shape. For a large fiber radius, the droplet spreads to a steady profile. In addition, the liquid viscosity is found to retard the deformation of the droplet and the motion of the contact lines.

Spreading of Annular Droplets on a Horizontal Fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xue; Ding, Zijing; Liu, Rong

2017-12-01

This paper investigates an annular droplet on a horizontal fiber. The static state and the dynamic spreading process of the droplet is analyzed. A full model describing the profile of a static droplet is derived from the energy variation principle. To study the dynamical spreading of the droplet, we derive a lubrication model which is verified by the full model. It indicates that the lubrication model is valid for a thin droplet. Results of the static droplet reveal that, when the fiber radius is very small, the droplet tends to have a spherical shape; if the fiber radius is very large, the droplet approaches to a parabolic profile. Furthermore, the time-evolution study is carried out to investigate the dynamical spreading of the droplet. It is highlighted that when the fiber radius is small, the droplet can breakup into small droplets or contract into a sharp shape. For a large fiber radius, the droplet spreads to a steady profile. In addition, the liquid viscosity is found to retard the deformation of the droplet and the motion of the contact lines.

Epidemiology: Past, Present, and Future Impacts on Understanding Disease Dynamics and Improving Plant Disease Management-A Summary of Focus Issue Articles.

PubMed

Ojiambo, P S; Yuen, J; van den Bosch, F; Madden, L V

2017-10-01

Epidemiology has made significant contributions to plant pathology by elucidating the general principles underlying the development of disease epidemics. This has resulted in a greatly improved theoretical and empirical understanding of the dynamics of disease epidemics in time and space, predictions of disease outbreaks or the need for disease control in real-time basis, and tactical and strategic solutions to disease problems. Availability of high-resolution experimental data at multiple temporal and spatial scales has now provided a platform to test and validate theories on the spread of diseases at a wide range of spatial scales ranging from the local to the landscape level. Relatively new approaches in plant disease epidemiology, ranging from network to information theory, coupled with the availability of large-scale datasets and the rapid development of computer technology, are leading to revolutionary thinking about epidemics that can result in considerable improvement of strategic and tactical decision making in the control and management of plant diseases. Methods that were previously restricted to topics such as population biology or evolution are now being employed in epidemiology to enable a better understanding of the forces that drive the development of plant disease epidemics in space and time. This Focus Issue of Phytopathology features research articles that address broad themes in epidemiology including social and political consequences of disease epidemics, decision theory and support, pathogen dispersal and disease spread, disease assessment and pathogen biology and disease resistance. It is important to emphasize that these articles are just a sample of the types of research projects that are relevant to epidemiology. Below, we provide a succinct summary of the articles that are published in this Focus Issue .

The topology and dynamics of complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dezso, Zoltan

We start with a brief introduction about the topological properties of real networks. Most real networks are scale-free, being characterized by a power-law degree distribution. The scale-free nature of real networks leads to unexpected properties such as the vanishing epidemic threshold. Traditional methods aiming to reduce the spreading rate of viruses cannot succeed on eradicating the epidemic on a scale-free network. We demonstrate that policies that discriminate between the nodes, curing mostly the highly connected nodes, can restore a finite epidemic threshold and potentially eradicate the virus. We find that the more biased a policy is towards the hubs, the more chance it has to bring the epidemic threshold above the virus' spreading rate. We continue by studying a large Web portal as a model system for a rapidly evolving network. We find that the visitation pattern of a news document decays as a power law, in contrast with the exponential prediction provided by simple models of site visitation. This is rooted in the inhomogeneous nature of the browsing pattern characterizing individual users: the time interval between consecutive visits by the same user to the site follows a power law distribution, in contrast with the exponential expected for Poisson processes. We show that the exponent characterizing the individual user's browsing patterns determines the power-law decay in a document's visitation. Finally, we turn our attention to biological networks and demonstrate quantitatively that protein complexes in the yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, are comprised of a core in which subunits are highly coexpressed, display the same deletion phenotype (essential or non-essential) and share identical functional classification and cellular localization. The results allow us to define the deletion phenotype and cellular task of most known complexes, and to identify with high confidence the biochemical role of hundreds of proteins with yet unassigned functionality.

Ionospheric modification - An initial report on artificially created equatorial Spread F

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ossakow, S. L.; Zalesak, S. T.; Mcdonald, B. E.

1978-01-01

A numerical simulation code for investigating equatorial Spread F in the collisional Rayleigh-Taylor regime is utilized to follow the evolution of artificial plasma density depletions injected into the bottomside nighttime equatorial F region. The 70 km diameter hole rapidly rises and steepens, forming plasma density enhancements at altitudes below the rising hole. The distribution of enhancements and depletions is similar to natural equatorial Spread F phenomena, except it occurs on a much faster time scale. These predictions warrant carrying out artificial injection experiments in the nighttime equatorial F region.