Data management in large-scale collaborative toxicity studies: how to file experimental data for automated statistical analysis.

PubMed

Stanzel, Sven; Weimer, Marc; Kopp-Schneider, Annette

2013-06-01

High-throughput screening approaches are carried out for the toxicity assessment of a large number of chemical compounds. In such large-scale in vitro toxicity studies several hundred or thousand concentration-response experiments are conducted. The automated evaluation of concentration-response data using statistical analysis scripts saves time and yields more consistent results in comparison to data analysis performed by the use of menu-driven statistical software. Automated statistical analysis requires that concentration-response data are available in a standardised data format across all compounds. To obtain consistent data formats, a standardised data management workflow must be established, including guidelines for data storage, data handling and data extraction. In this paper two procedures for data management within large-scale toxicological projects are proposed. Both procedures are based on Microsoft Excel files as the researcher's primary data format and use a computer programme to automate the handling of data files. The first procedure assumes that data collection has not yet started whereas the second procedure can be used when data files already exist. Successful implementation of the two approaches into the European project ACuteTox is illustrated. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tracking of large-scale structures in turbulent channel with direct numerical simulation of low Prandtl number passive scalar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiselj, Iztok

2014-12-01

Channel flow DNS (Direct Numerical Simulation) at friction Reynolds number 180 and with passive scalars of Prandtl numbers 1 and 0.01 was performed in various computational domains. The "normal" size domain was ˜2300 wall units long and ˜750 wall units wide; size taken from the similar DNS of Moser et al. The "large" computational domain, which is supposed to be sufficient to describe the largest structures of the turbulent flows was 3 times longer and 3 times wider than the "normal" domain. The "very large" domain was 6 times longer and 6 times wider than the "normal" domain. All simulations were performed with the same spatial and temporal resolution. Comparison of the standard and large computational domains shows the velocity field statistics (mean velocity, root-mean-square (RMS) fluctuations, and turbulent Reynolds stresses) that are within 1%-2%. Similar agreement is observed for Pr = 1 temperature fields and can be observed also for the mean temperature profiles at Pr = 0.01. These differences can be attributed to the statistical uncertainties of the DNS. However, second-order moments, i.e., RMS temperature fluctuations of standard and large computational domains at Pr = 0.01 show significant differences of up to 20%. Stronger temperature fluctuations in the "large" and "very large" domains confirm the existence of the large-scale structures. Their influence is more or less invisible in the main velocity field statistics or in the statistics of the temperature fields at Prandtl numbers around 1. However, these structures play visible role in the temperature fluctuations at low Prandtl number, where high temperature diffusivity effectively smears the small-scale structures in the thermal field and enhances the relative contribution of large-scales. These large thermal structures represent some kind of an echo of the large scale velocity structures: the highest temperature-velocity correlations are not observed between the instantaneous temperatures and instantaneous streamwise velocities, but between the instantaneous temperatures and velocities averaged over certain time interval.

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe.

PubMed

Ceglar, Andrej; Turco, Marco; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2017-06-15

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall: Dependence of a random cascade generator on large-scale forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Over, Thomas, M.; Gupta, Vijay K.

1994-01-01

Under the theory of independent and identically distributed random cascades, the probability distribution of the cascade generator determines the spatial and the ensemble properties of spatial rainfall. Three sets of radar-derived rainfall data in space and time are analyzed to estimate the probability distribution of the generator. A detailed comparison between instantaneous scans of spatial rainfall and simulated cascades using the scaling properties of the marginal moments is carried out. This comparison highlights important similarities and differences between the data and the random cascade theory. Differences are quantified and measured for the three datasets. Evidence is presented to show that the scaling properties of the rainfall can be captured to the first order by a random cascade with a single parameter. The dependence of this parameter on forcing by the large-scale meteorological conditions, as measured by the large-scale spatial average rain rate, is investigated for these three datasets. The data show that this dependence can be captured by a one-to-one function. Since the large-scale average rain rate can be diagnosed from the large-scale dynamics, this relationship demonstrates an important linkage between the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and the statistical cascade theory of mesoscale rainfall. Potential application of this research to parameterization of runoff from the land surface and regional flood frequency analysis is briefly discussed, and open problems for further research are presented.

Planck 2015 results. XVI. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; Aluri, P. K.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J. J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Casaponsa, B.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Christensen, P. R.; Church, S.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Combet, C.; Contreras, D.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B. P.; Cruz, M.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Fantaye, Y.; Fergusson, J.; Fernandez-Cobos, R.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A. A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Frolov, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J. E.; Hansen, F. K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D. L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kim, J.; Kisner, T. S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; Liu, H.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P. R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mikkelsen, K.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C. B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Pant, N.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T. J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G. W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Rotti, A.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M. D.; Shellard, E. P. S.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, L. D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Wehus, I. K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zibin, J. P.; Zonca, A.

2016-09-01

We test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consider the CMB anisotropy maps derived from the multi-frequency Planck data by several component-separation methods. For the temperature anisotropies, we find excellent agreement between results based on these sky maps over both a very large fraction of the sky and a broad range of angular scales, establishing that potential foreground residuals do not affect our studies. Tests of skewness, kurtosis, multi-normality, N-point functions, and Minkowski functionals indicate consistency with Gaussianity, while a power deficit at large angular scales is manifested in several ways, for example low map variance. The results of a peak statistics analysis are consistent with the expectations of a Gaussian random field. The "Cold Spot" is detected with several methods, including map kurtosis, peak statistics, and mean temperature profile. We thoroughly probe the large-scale dipolar power asymmetry, detecting it with several independent tests, and address the subject of a posteriori correction. Tests of directionality suggest the presence of angular clustering from large to small scales, but at a significance that is dependent on the details of the approach. We perform the first examination of polarization data, finding the morphology of stacked peaks to be consistent with the expectations of statistically isotropic simulations. Where they overlap, these results are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and provide our most thorough view of the statistics of the CMB fluctuations to date.

Planck 2015 results: XVI. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

DOE PAGES

Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; ...

2016-09-20

In this paper, we test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consider the CMB anisotropy maps derived from the multi-frequency Planck data by several component-separation methods. For the temperature anisotropies, we find excellent agreement between results based on these sky maps over both a very large fraction of the sky and a broad range of angular scales, establishing that potential foreground residuals do not affect ourmore » studies. Tests of skewness, kurtosis, multi-normality, N-point functions, and Minkowski functionals indicate consistency with Gaussianity, while a power deficit at large angular scales is manifested in several ways, for example low map variance. The results of a peak statistics analysis are consistent with the expectations of a Gaussian random field. The “Cold Spot” is detected with several methods, including map kurtosis, peak statistics, and mean temperature profile. We thoroughly probe the large-scale dipolar power asymmetry, detecting it with several independent tests, and address the subject of a posteriori correction. Tests of directionality suggest the presence of angular clustering from large to small scales, but at a significance that is dependent on the details of the approach. We perform the first examination of polarization data, finding the morphology of stacked peaks to be consistent with the expectations of statistically isotropic simulations. Finally, where they overlap, these results are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and provide our most thorough view of the statistics of the CMB fluctuations to date.« less

Cold dark matter and degree-scale cosmic microwave background anisotropy statistics after COBE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorski, Krzysztof M.; Stompor, Radoslaw; Juszkiewicz, Roman

1993-01-01

We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy in the UCSB South Pole 1991 degree-scale experiment. We examine cold dark matter cosmology with large-scale structure seeded by the Harrison-Zel'dovich hierarchy of Gaussian-distributed primordial inhomogeneities normalized to the COBE-DMR measurement of large-angle CMB anisotropy. We find it statistically implausible (in the sense of low cumulative probability F lower than 5 percent, of not measuring a cosmological delta-T/T signal) that the degree-scale cosmological CMB anisotropy predicted in such models could have escaped a detection at the level of sensitivity achieved in the South Pole 1991 experiment.

Developing a "Semi-Systematic" Approach to Using Large-Scale Data-Sets for Small-Scale Interventions: The "Baby Matterz" Initiative as a Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Brien, Mark

2011-01-01

The appropriateness of using statistical data to inform the design of any given service development or initiative often depends upon judgements regarding scale. Large-scale data sets, perhaps national in scope, whilst potentially important in informing the design, implementation and roll-out of experimental initiatives, will often remain unused…

The statistics of primordial density fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrow, John D.; Coles, Peter

1990-05-01

The statistical properties of the density fluctuations produced by power-law inflation are investigated. It is found that, even the fluctuations present in the scalar field driving the inflation are Gaussian, the resulting density perturbations need not be, due to stochastic variations in the Hubble parameter. All the moments of the density fluctuations are calculated, and is is argued that, for realistic parameter choices, the departures from Gaussian statistics are small and would have a negligible effect on the large-scale structure produced in the model. On the other hand, the model predicts a power spectrum with n not equal to 1, and this could be good news for large-scale structure.

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions.

PubMed

Pavlacky, David C; Lukacs, Paul M; Blakesley, Jennifer A; Skorkowsky, Robert C; Klute, David S; Hahn, Beth A; Dreitz, Victoria J; George, T Luke; Hanni, David J

2017-01-01

Monitoring is an essential component of wildlife management and conservation. However, the usefulness of monitoring data is often undermined by the lack of 1) coordination across organizations and regions, 2) meaningful management and conservation objectives, and 3) rigorous sampling designs. Although many improvements to avian monitoring have been discussed, the recommendations have been slow to emerge in large-scale programs. We introduce the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program designed to overcome the above limitations. Our objectives are to outline the development of a statistically defensible sampling design to increase the value of large-scale monitoring data and provide example applications to demonstrate the ability of the design to meet multiple conservation and management objectives. We outline the sampling process for the IMBCR program with a focus on the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). We provide two examples for the Brewer's sparrow (Spizella breweri) in BCR 17 demonstrating the ability of the design to 1) determine hierarchical population responses to landscape change and 2) estimate hierarchical habitat relationships to predict the response of the Brewer's sparrow to conservation efforts at multiple spatial scales. The collaboration across organizations and regions provided economy of scale by leveraging a common data platform over large spatial scales to promote the efficient use of monitoring resources. We designed the IMBCR program to address the information needs and core conservation and management objectives of the participating partner organizations. Although it has been argued that probabilistic sampling designs are not practical for large-scale monitoring, the IMBCR program provides a precedent for implementing a statistically defensible sampling design from local to bioregional scales. We demonstrate that integrating conservation and management objectives with rigorous statistical design and analyses ensures reliable knowledge about bird populations that is relevant and integral to bird conservation at multiple scales.

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

PubMed Central

Hahn, Beth A.; Dreitz, Victoria J.; George, T. Luke

2017-01-01

Monitoring is an essential component of wildlife management and conservation. However, the usefulness of monitoring data is often undermined by the lack of 1) coordination across organizations and regions, 2) meaningful management and conservation objectives, and 3) rigorous sampling designs. Although many improvements to avian monitoring have been discussed, the recommendations have been slow to emerge in large-scale programs. We introduce the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program designed to overcome the above limitations. Our objectives are to outline the development of a statistically defensible sampling design to increase the value of large-scale monitoring data and provide example applications to demonstrate the ability of the design to meet multiple conservation and management objectives. We outline the sampling process for the IMBCR program with a focus on the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). We provide two examples for the Brewer’s sparrow (Spizella breweri) in BCR 17 demonstrating the ability of the design to 1) determine hierarchical population responses to landscape change and 2) estimate hierarchical habitat relationships to predict the response of the Brewer’s sparrow to conservation efforts at multiple spatial scales. The collaboration across organizations and regions provided economy of scale by leveraging a common data platform over large spatial scales to promote the efficient use of monitoring resources. We designed the IMBCR program to address the information needs and core conservation and management objectives of the participating partner organizations. Although it has been argued that probabilistic sampling designs are not practical for large-scale monitoring, the IMBCR program provides a precedent for implementing a statistically defensible sampling design from local to bioregional scales. We demonstrate that integrating conservation and management objectives with rigorous statistical design and analyses ensures reliable knowledge about bird populations that is relevant and integral to bird conservation at multiple scales. PMID:29065128

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE PAGES

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun; ...

2018-02-10

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

Using Microsoft Excel[R] to Calculate Descriptive Statistics and Create Graphs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carr, Nathan T.

2008-01-01

Descriptive statistics and appropriate visual representations of scores are important for all test developers, whether they are experienced testers working on large-scale projects, or novices working on small-scale local tests. Many teachers put in charge of testing projects do not know "why" they are important, however, and are utterly convinced…

Robust regression for large-scale neuroimaging studies.

PubMed

Fritsch, Virgile; Da Mota, Benoit; Loth, Eva; Varoquaux, Gaël; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun L W; Brühl, Rüdiger; Butzek, Brigitte; Conrod, Patricia; Flor, Herta; Garavan, Hugh; Lemaitre, Hervé; Mann, Karl; Nees, Frauke; Paus, Tomas; Schad, Daniel J; Schümann, Gunter; Frouin, Vincent; Poline, Jean-Baptiste; Thirion, Bertrand

2015-05-01

Multi-subject datasets used in neuroimaging group studies have a complex structure, as they exhibit non-stationary statistical properties across regions and display various artifacts. While studies with small sample sizes can rarely be shown to deviate from standard hypotheses (such as the normality of the residuals) due to the poor sensitivity of normality tests with low degrees of freedom, large-scale studies (e.g. >100 subjects) exhibit more obvious deviations from these hypotheses and call for more refined models for statistical inference. Here, we demonstrate the benefits of robust regression as a tool for analyzing large neuroimaging cohorts. First, we use an analytic test based on robust parameter estimates; based on simulations, this procedure is shown to provide an accurate statistical control without resorting to permutations. Second, we show that robust regression yields more detections than standard algorithms using as an example an imaging genetics study with 392 subjects. Third, we show that robust regression can avoid false positives in a large-scale analysis of brain-behavior relationships with over 1500 subjects. Finally we embed robust regression in the Randomized Parcellation Based Inference (RPBI) method and demonstrate that this combination further improves the sensitivity of tests carried out across the whole brain. Altogether, our results show that robust procedures provide important advantages in large-scale neuroimaging group studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistics of galaxy orientations - Morphology and large-scale structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambas, Diego G.; Groth, Edward J.; Peebles, P. J. E.

1988-01-01

Using the Uppsala General Catalog of bright galaxies and the northern and southern maps of the Lick counts of galaxies, statistical evidence of a morphology-orientation effect is found. Major axes of elliptical galaxies are preferentially oriented along the large-scale features of the Lick maps. However, the orientations of the major axes of spiral and lenticular galaxies show no clear signs of significant nonrandom behavior at a level of less than about one-fifth of the effect seen for ellipticals. The angular scale of the detected alignment effect for Uppsala ellipticals extends to at least theta of about 2 deg, which at a redshift of z of about 0.02 corresponds to a linear scale of about 2/h Mpc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.

In this paper, we test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consider the CMB anisotropy maps derived from the multi-frequency Planck data by several component-separation methods. For the temperature anisotropies, we find excellent agreement between results based on these sky maps over both a very large fraction of the sky and a broad range of angular scales, establishing that potential foreground residuals do not affect ourmore » studies. Tests of skewness, kurtosis, multi-normality, N-point functions, and Minkowski functionals indicate consistency with Gaussianity, while a power deficit at large angular scales is manifested in several ways, for example low map variance. The results of a peak statistics analysis are consistent with the expectations of a Gaussian random field. The “Cold Spot” is detected with several methods, including map kurtosis, peak statistics, and mean temperature profile. We thoroughly probe the large-scale dipolar power asymmetry, detecting it with several independent tests, and address the subject of a posteriori correction. Tests of directionality suggest the presence of angular clustering from large to small scales, but at a significance that is dependent on the details of the approach. We perform the first examination of polarization data, finding the morphology of stacked peaks to be consistent with the expectations of statistically isotropic simulations. Finally, where they overlap, these results are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and provide our most thorough view of the statistics of the CMB fluctuations to date.« less

Quantum probability, choice in large worlds, and the statistical structure of reality.

PubMed

Ross, Don; Ladyman, James

2013-06-01

Classical probability models of incentive response are inadequate in "large worlds," where the dimensions of relative risk and the dimensions of similarity in outcome comparisons typically differ. Quantum probability models for choice in large worlds may be motivated pragmatically - there is no third theory - or metaphysically: statistical processing in the brain adapts to the true scale-relative structure of the universe.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, Craig

It is argued by extrapolation of general relativity and quantum mechanics that a classical inertial frame corresponds to a statistically defined observable that rotationally fluctuates due to Planck scale indeterminacy. Physical effects of exotic nonlocal rotational correlations on large scale field states are estimated. Their entanglement with the strong interaction vacuum is estimated to produce a universal, statistical centrifugal acceleration that resembles the observed cosmological constant.

Avalanche Statistics Identify Intrinsic Stellar Processes near Criticality in KIC 8462852

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheikh, Mohammed A.; Weaver, Richard L.; Dahmen, Karin A.

2016-12-01

The star KIC8462852 (Tabby's star) has shown anomalous drops in light flux. We perform a statistical analysis of the more numerous smaller dimming events by using methods found useful for avalanches in ferromagnetism and plastic flow. Scaling exponents for avalanche statistics and temporal profiles of the flux during the dimming events are close to mean field predictions. Scaling collapses suggest that this star may be near a nonequilibrium critical point. The large events are interpreted as avalanches marked by modified dynamics, limited by the system size, and not within the scaling regime.

On the linearity of tracer bias around voids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollina, Giorgia; Hamaus, Nico; Dolag, Klaus; Weller, Jochen; Baldi, Marco; Moscardini, Lauro

2017-07-01

The large-scale structure of the Universe can be observed only via luminous tracers of the dark matter. However, the clustering statistics of tracers are biased and depend on various properties, such as their host-halo mass and assembly history. On very large scales, this tracer bias results in a constant offset in the clustering amplitude, known as linear bias. Towards smaller non-linear scales, this is no longer the case and tracer bias becomes a complicated function of scale and time. We focus on tracer bias centred on cosmic voids, I.e. depressions of the density field that spatially dominate the Universe. We consider three types of tracers: galaxies, galaxy clusters and active galactic nuclei, extracted from the hydrodynamical simulation Magneticum Pathfinder. In contrast to common clustering statistics that focus on auto-correlations of tracers, we find that void-tracer cross-correlations are successfully described by a linear bias relation. The tracer-density profile of voids can thus be related to their matter-density profile by a single number. We show that it coincides with the linear tracer bias extracted from the large-scale auto-correlation function and expectations from theory, if sufficiently large voids are considered. For smaller voids we observe a shift towards higher values. This has important consequences on cosmological parameter inference, as the problem of unknown tracer bias is alleviated up to a constant number. The smallest scales in existing data sets become accessible to simpler models, providing numerous modes of the density field that have been disregarded so far, but may help to further reduce statistical errors in constraining cosmology.

Impact of Design Effects in Large-Scale District and State Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Gary W.

2015-01-01

This article proposes that sampling design effects have potentially huge unrecognized impacts on the results reported by large-scale district and state assessments in the United States. When design effects are unrecognized and unaccounted for they lead to underestimating the sampling error in item and test statistics. Underestimating the sampling…

Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Large-Scale Professional Development Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Main, Katherine; Pendergast, Donna

2017-01-01

An evaluation of the effectiveness of a large-scale professional development (PD) programme delivered to 258 schools in Queensland, Australia is presented. Formal evaluations were conducted at two stages during the programme using a tool developed from Desimone's five core features of effective PD. Descriptive statistics of 38 questions and…

Fire management over large landscapes: a hierarchical approach

Treesearch

Kenneth G. Boykin

2008-01-01

Management planning for fires becomes increasingly difficult as scale increases. Stratification provides land managers with multiple scales in which to prepare plans. Using statistical techniques, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and meetings with land managers, we divided a large landscape of over 2 million acres (White Sands Missile Range) into parcels useful in...

Randomized central limit theorems: A unified theory.

PubMed

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-08-01

The central limit theorems (CLTs) characterize the macroscopic statistical behavior of large ensembles of independent and identically distributed random variables. The CLTs assert that the universal probability laws governing ensembles' aggregate statistics are either Gaussian or Lévy, and that the universal probability laws governing ensembles' extreme statistics are Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel. The scaling schemes underlying the CLTs are deterministic-scaling all ensemble components by a common deterministic scale. However, there are "random environment" settings in which the underlying scaling schemes are stochastic-scaling the ensemble components by different random scales. Examples of such settings include Holtsmark's law for gravitational fields and the Stretched Exponential law for relaxation times. In this paper we establish a unified theory of randomized central limit theorems (RCLTs)-in which the deterministic CLT scaling schemes are replaced with stochastic scaling schemes-and present "randomized counterparts" to the classic CLTs. The RCLT scaling schemes are shown to be governed by Poisson processes with power-law statistics, and the RCLTs are shown to universally yield the Lévy, Fréchet, and Weibull probability laws.

Randomized central limit theorems: A unified theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-08-01

The central limit theorems (CLTs) characterize the macroscopic statistical behavior of large ensembles of independent and identically distributed random variables. The CLTs assert that the universal probability laws governing ensembles’ aggregate statistics are either Gaussian or Lévy, and that the universal probability laws governing ensembles’ extreme statistics are Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel. The scaling schemes underlying the CLTs are deterministic—scaling all ensemble components by a common deterministic scale. However, there are “random environment” settings in which the underlying scaling schemes are stochastic—scaling the ensemble components by different random scales. Examples of such settings include Holtsmark’s law for gravitational fields and the Stretched Exponential law for relaxation times. In this paper we establish a unified theory of randomized central limit theorems (RCLTs)—in which the deterministic CLT scaling schemes are replaced with stochastic scaling schemes—and present “randomized counterparts” to the classic CLTs. The RCLT scaling schemes are shown to be governed by Poisson processes with power-law statistics, and the RCLTs are shown to universally yield the Lévy, Fréchet, and Weibull probability laws.

Vortex dynamics and Lagrangian statistics in a model for active turbulence.

PubMed

James, Martin; Wilczek, Michael

2018-02-14

Cellular suspensions such as dense bacterial flows exhibit a turbulence-like phase under certain conditions. We study this phenomenon of "active turbulence" statistically by using numerical tools. Following Wensink et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109, 14308 (2012)), we model active turbulence by means of a generalized Navier-Stokes equation. Two-point velocity statistics of active turbulence, both in the Eulerian and the Lagrangian frame, is explored. We characterize the scale-dependent features of two-point statistics in this system. Furthermore, we extend this statistical study with measurements of vortex dynamics in this system. Our observations suggest that the large-scale statistics of active turbulence is close to Gaussian with sub-Gaussian tails.

Statistical simulation of the magnetorotational dynamo.

PubMed

Squire, J; Bhattacharjee, A

2015-02-27

Turbulence and dynamo induced by the magnetorotational instability (MRI) are analyzed using quasilinear statistical simulation methods. It is found that homogenous turbulence is unstable to a large-scale dynamo instability, which saturates to an inhomogenous equilibrium with a strong dependence on the magnetic Prandtl number (Pm). Despite its enormously reduced nonlinearity, the dependence of the angular momentum transport on Pm in the quasilinear model is qualitatively similar to that of nonlinear MRI turbulence. This demonstrates the importance of the large-scale dynamo and suggests how dramatically simplified models may be used to gain insight into the astrophysically relevant regimes of very low or high Pm.

Non-Hookean statistical mechanics of clamped graphene ribbons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowick, Mark J.; Košmrlj, Andrej; Nelson, David R.; Sknepnek, Rastko

2017-03-01

Thermally fluctuating sheets and ribbons provide an intriguing forum in which to investigate strong violations of Hooke's Law: Large distance elastic parameters are in fact not constant but instead depend on the macroscopic dimensions. Inspired by recent experiments on free-standing graphene cantilevers, we combine the statistical mechanics of thin elastic plates and large-scale numerical simulations to investigate the thermal renormalization of the bending rigidity of graphene ribbons clamped at one end. For ribbons of dimensions W ×L (with L ≥W ), the macroscopic bending rigidity κR determined from cantilever deformations is independent of the width when W <ℓth , where ℓth is a thermal length scale, as expected. When W >ℓth , however, this thermally renormalized bending rigidity begins to systematically increase, in agreement with the scaling theory, although in our simulations we were not quite able to reach the system sizes necessary to determine the fully developed power law dependence on W . When the ribbon length L >ℓp , where ℓp is the W -dependent thermally renormalized ribbon persistence length, we observe a scaling collapse and the beginnings of large scale random walk behavior.

Computation of large-scale statistics in decaying isotropic turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chasnov, Jeffrey R.

1993-01-01

We have performed large-eddy simulations of decaying isotropic turbulence to test the prediction of self-similar decay of the energy spectrum and to compute the decay exponents of the kinetic energy. In general, good agreement between the simulation results and the assumption of self-similarity were obtained. However, the statistics of the simulations were insufficient to compute the value of gamma which corrects the decay exponent when the spectrum follows a k(exp 4) wave number behavior near k = 0. To obtain good statistics, it was found necessary to average over a large ensemble of turbulent flows.

Statistical Learning Theory for High Dimensional Prediction: Application to Criterion-Keyed Scale Development

PubMed Central

Chapman, Benjamin P.; Weiss, Alexander; Duberstein, Paul

2016-01-01

Statistical learning theory (SLT) is the statistical formulation of machine learning theory, a body of analytic methods common in “big data” problems. Regression-based SLT algorithms seek to maximize predictive accuracy for some outcome, given a large pool of potential predictors, without overfitting the sample. Research goals in psychology may sometimes call for high dimensional regression. One example is criterion-keyed scale construction, where a scale with maximal predictive validity must be built from a large item pool. Using this as a working example, we first introduce a core principle of SLT methods: minimization of expected prediction error (EPE). Minimizing EPE is fundamentally different than maximizing the within-sample likelihood, and hinges on building a predictive model of sufficient complexity to predict the outcome well, without undue complexity leading to overfitting. We describe how such models are built and refined via cross-validation. We then illustrate how three common SLT algorithms–Supervised Principal Components, Regularization, and Boosting—can be used to construct a criterion-keyed scale predicting all-cause mortality, using a large personality item pool within a population cohort. Each algorithm illustrates a different approach to minimizing EPE. Finally, we consider broader applications of SLT predictive algorithms, both as supportive analytic tools for conventional methods, and as primary analytic tools in discovery phase research. We conclude that despite their differences from the classic null-hypothesis testing approach—or perhaps because of them–SLT methods may hold value as a statistically rigorous approach to exploratory regression. PMID:27454257

Explore the Usefulness of Person-Fit Analysis on Large-Scale Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cui, Ying; Mousavi, Amin

2015-01-01

The current study applied the person-fit statistic, l[subscript z], to data from a Canadian provincial achievement test to explore the usefulness of conducting person-fit analysis on large-scale assessments. Item parameter estimates were compared before and after the misfitting student responses, as identified by l[subscript z], were removed. The…

Dealing with Item Nonresponse in Large-Scale Cognitive Assessments: The Impact of Missing Data Methods on Estimated Explanatory Relationships

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Köhler, Carmen; Pohl, Steffi; Carstensen, Claus H.

2017-01-01

Competence data from low-stakes educational large-scale assessment studies allow for evaluating relationships between competencies and other variables. The impact of item-level nonresponse has not been investigated with regard to statistics that determine the size of these relationships (e.g., correlations, regression coefficients). Classical…

Statistical Analysis of Big Data on Pharmacogenomics

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liu, Han

2013-01-01

This paper discusses statistical methods for estimating complex correlation structure from large pharmacogenomic datasets. We selectively review several prominent statistical methods for estimating large covariance matrix for understanding correlation structure, inverse covariance matrix for network modeling, large-scale simultaneous tests for selecting significantly differently expressed genes and proteins and genetic markers for complex diseases, and high dimensional variable selection for identifying important molecules for understanding molecule mechanisms in pharmacogenomics. Their applications to gene network estimation and biomarker selection are used to illustrate the methodological power. Several new challenges of Big data analysis, including complex data distribution, missing data, measurement error, spurious correlation, endogeneity, and the need for robust statistical methods, are also discussed. PMID:23602905

Statistical analysis of kinetic energy entrainment in a model wind turbine array boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cal, Raul Bayoan; Hamilton, Nicholas; Kang, Hyung-Suk; Meneveau, Charles

2012-11-01

For large wind farms, kinetic energy must be entrained from the flow above the wind turbines to replenish wakes and enable power extraction in the array. Various statistical features of turbulence causing vertical entrainment of mean-flow kinetic energy are studied using hot-wire velocimetry data taken in a model wind farm in a scaled wind tunnel experiment. Conditional statistics and spectral decompositions are employed to characterize the most relevant turbulent flow structures and determine their length-scales. Sweep and ejection events are shown to be the largest contributors to the vertical kinetic energy flux, although their relative contribution depends upon the location in the wake. Sweeps are shown to be dominant in the region above the wind turbine array. A spectral analysis of the data shows that large scales of the flow, about the size of the rotor diameter in length or larger, dominate the vertical entrainment. The flow is more incoherent below the array, causing decreased vertical fluxes there. The results show that improving the rate of vertical kinetic energy entrainment into wind turbine arrays is a standing challenge and would require modifying the large-scale structures of the flow. This work was funded in part by the National Science Foundation (CBET-0730922, CBET-1133800 and CBET-0953053).

Scaling laws and fluctuations in the statistics of word frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlach, Martin; Altmann, Eduardo G.

2014-11-01

In this paper, we combine statistical analysis of written texts and simple stochastic models to explain the appearance of scaling laws in the statistics of word frequencies. The average vocabulary of an ensemble of fixed-length texts is known to scale sublinearly with the total number of words (Heaps’ law). Analyzing the fluctuations around this average in three large databases (Google-ngram, English Wikipedia, and a collection of scientific articles), we find that the standard deviation scales linearly with the average (Taylor's law), in contrast to the prediction of decaying fluctuations obtained using simple sampling arguments. We explain both scaling laws (Heaps’ and Taylor) by modeling the usage of words using a Poisson process with a fat-tailed distribution of word frequencies (Zipf's law) and topic-dependent frequencies of individual words (as in topic models). Considering topical variations lead to quenched averages, turn the vocabulary size a non-self-averaging quantity, and explain the empirical observations. For the numerous practical applications relying on estimations of vocabulary size, our results show that uncertainties remain large even for long texts. We show how to account for these uncertainties in measurements of lexical richness of texts with different lengths.

Not a Copernican observer: biased peculiar velocity statistics in the local Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwing, Wojciech A.; Nusser, Adi; Feix, Martin; Bilicki, Maciej

2017-05-01

We assess the effect of the local large-scale structure on the estimation of two-point statistics of the observed radial peculiar velocities of galaxies. A large N-body simulation is used to examine these statistics from the perspective of random observers as well as 'Local Group-like' observers conditioned to reside in an environment resembling the observed Universe within 20 Mpc. The local environment systematically distorts the shape and amplitude of velocity statistics with respect to ensemble-averaged measurements made by a Copernican (random) observer. The Virgo cluster has the most significant impact, introducing large systematic deviations in all the statistics. For a simple 'top-hat' selection function, an idealized survey extending to ˜160 h-1 Mpc or deeper is needed to completely mitigate the effects of the local environment. Using shallower catalogues leads to systematic deviations of the order of 50-200 per cent depending on the scale considered. For a flat redshift distribution similar to the one of the CosmicFlows-3 survey, the deviations are even more prominent in both the shape and amplitude at all separations considered (≲100 h-1 Mpc). Conclusions based on statistics calculated without taking into account the impact of the local environment should be revisited.

Statistical Compression of Wind Speed Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagle, F.; Castruccio, S.; Crippa, P.; Genton, M.

2017-12-01

In this work we introduce a lossy compression approach that utilizes a stochastic wind generator based on a non-Gaussian distribution to reproduce the internal climate variability of daily wind speed as represented by the CESM Large Ensemble over Saudi Arabia. Stochastic wind generators, and stochastic weather generators more generally, are statistical models that aim to match certain statistical properties of the data on which they are trained. They have been used extensively in applications ranging from agricultural models to climate impact studies. In this novel context, the parameters of the fitted model can be interpreted as encoding the information contained in the original uncompressed data. The statistical model is fit to only 3 of the 30 ensemble members and it adequately captures the variability of the ensemble in terms of seasonal internannual variability of daily wind speed. To deal with such a large spatial domain, it is partitioned into 9 region, and the model is fit independently to each of these. We further discuss a recent refinement of the model, which relaxes this assumption of regional independence, by introducing a large-scale component that interacts with the fine-scale regional effects.

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

Transport Coefficients from Large Deviation Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chloe; Limmer, David

2017-10-01

We describe a method for computing transport coefficients from the direct evaluation of large deviation function. This method is general, relying on only equilibrium fluctuations, and is statistically efficient, employing trajectory based importance sampling. Equilibrium fluctuations of molecular currents are characterized by their large deviation functions, which is a scaled cumulant generating function analogous to the free energy. A diffusion Monte Carlo algorithm is used to evaluate the large deviation functions, from which arbitrary transport coefficients are derivable. We find significant statistical improvement over traditional Green-Kubo based calculations. The systematic and statistical errors of this method are analyzed in the context of specific transport coefficient calculations, including the shear viscosity, interfacial friction coefficient, and thermal conductivity.

How large a dataset should be in order to estimate scaling exponents and other statistics correctly in studies of solar wind turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowlands, G.; Kiyani, K. H.; Chapman, S. C.; Watkins, N. W.

2009-12-01

Quantitative analysis of solar wind fluctuations are often performed in the context of intermittent turbulence and center around methods to quantify statistical scaling, such as power spectra and structure functions which assume a stationary process. The solar wind exhibits large scale secular changes and so the question arises as to whether the timeseries of the fluctuations is non-stationary. One approach is to seek a local stationarity by parsing the time interval over which statistical analysis is performed. Hence, natural systems such as the solar wind unavoidably provide observations over restricted intervals. Consequently, due to a reduction of sample size leading to poorer estimates, a stationary stochastic process (time series) can yield anomalous time variation in the scaling exponents, suggestive of nonstationarity. The variance in the estimates of scaling exponents computed from an interval of N observations is known for finite variance processes to vary as ~1/N as N becomes large for certain statistical estimators; however, the convergence to this behavior will depend on the details of the process, and may be slow. We study the variation in the scaling of second-order moments of the time-series increments with N for a variety of synthetic and “real world” time series, and we find that in particular for heavy tailed processes, for realizable N, one is far from this ~1/N limiting behavior. We propose a semiempirical estimate for the minimum N needed to make a meaningful estimate of the scaling exponents for model stochastic processes and compare these with some “real world” time series from the solar wind. With fewer datapoints the stationary timeseries becomes indistinguishable from a nonstationary process and we illustrate this with nonstationary synthetic datasets. Reference article: K. H. Kiyani, S. C. Chapman and N. W. Watkins, Phys. Rev. E 79, 036109 (2009).

Appplication of statistical mechanical methods to the modeling of social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strathman, Anthony Robert

With the recent availability of large-scale social data sets, social networks have become open to quantitative analysis via the methods of statistical physics. We examine the statistical properties of a real large-scale social network, generated from cellular phone call-trace logs. We find this network, like many other social networks to be assortative (r = 0.31) and clustered (i.e., strongly transitive, C = 0.21). We measure fluctuation scaling to identify the presence of internal structure in the network and find that structural inhomogeneity effectively disappears at the scale of a few hundred nodes, though there is no sharp cutoff. We introduce an agent-based model of social behavior, designed to model the formation and dissolution of social ties. The model is a modified Metropolis algorithm containing agents operating under the basic sociological constraints of reciprocity, communication need and transitivity. The model introduces the concept of a social temperature. We go on to show that this simple model reproduces the global statistical network features (incl. assortativity, connected fraction, mean degree, clustering, and mean shortest path length) of the real network data and undergoes two phase transitions, one being from a "gas" to a "liquid" state and the second from a liquid to a glassy state as function of this social temperature.

Characterizing multi-scale self-similar behavior and non-statistical properties of fluctuations in financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Sayantan; Manimaran, P.; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

2011-11-01

We make use of wavelet transform to study the multi-scale, self-similar behavior and deviations thereof, in the stock prices of large companies, belonging to different economic sectors. The stock market returns exhibit multi-fractal characteristics, with some of the companies showing deviations at small and large scales. The fact that, the wavelets belonging to the Daubechies’ (Db) basis enables one to isolate local polynomial trends of different degrees, plays the key role in isolating fluctuations at different scales. One of the primary motivations of this work is to study the emergence of the k-3 behavior [X. Gabaix, P. Gopikrishnan, V. Plerou, H. Stanley, A theory of power law distributions in financial market fluctuations, Nature 423 (2003) 267-270] of the fluctuations starting with high frequency fluctuations. We make use of Db4 and Db6 basis sets to respectively isolate local linear and quadratic trends at different scales in order to study the statistical characteristics of these financial time series. The fluctuations reveal fat tail non-Gaussian behavior, unstable periodic modulations, at finer scales, from which the characteristic k-3 power law behavior emerges at sufficiently large scales. We further identify stable periodic behavior through the continuous Morlet wavelet.

Multilevel Latent Class Analysis for Large-Scale Educational Assessment Data: Exploring the Relation between the Curriculum and Students' Mathematical Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fagginger Auer, Marije F.; Hickendorff, Marian; Van Putten, Cornelis M.; Béguin, Anton A.; Heiser, Willem J.

2016-01-01

A first application of multilevel latent class analysis (MLCA) to educational large-scale assessment data is demonstrated. This statistical technique addresses several of the challenges that assessment data offers. Importantly, MLCA allows modeling of the often ignored teacher effects and of the joint influence of teacher and student variables.…

New Probe of Departures from General Relativity Using Minkowski Functionals.

PubMed

Fang, Wenjuan; Li, Baojiu; Zhao, Gong-Bo

2017-05-05

The morphological properties of the large scale structure of the Universe can be fully described by four Minkowski functionals (MFs), which provide important complementary information to other statistical observables such as the widely used 2-point statistics in configuration and Fourier spaces. In this work, for the first time, we present the differences in the morphology of the large scale structure caused by modifications to general relativity (to address the cosmic acceleration problem), by measuring the MFs from N-body simulations of modified gravity and general relativity. We find strong statistical power when using the MFs to constrain modified theories of gravity: with a galaxy survey that has survey volume ∼0.125(h^{-1}  Gpc)^{3} and galaxy number density ∼1/(h^{-1}  Mpc)^{3}, the two normal-branch Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati models and the F5 f(R) model that we simulated can be discriminated from the ΛCDM model at a significance level ≳5σ with an individual MF measurement. Therefore, the MF of the large scale structure is potentially a powerful probe of gravity, and its application to real data deserves active exploration.

Lensing corrections to the Eg(z) statistics from large scale structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradinezhad Dizgah, Azadeh; Durrer, Ruth

2016-09-01

We study the impact of the often neglected lensing contribution to galaxy number counts on the Eg statistics which is used to constrain deviations from GR. This contribution affects both the galaxy-galaxy and the convergence-galaxy spectra, while it is larger for the latter. At higher redshifts probed by upcoming surveys, for instance at z = 1.5, neglecting this term induces an error of (25-40)% in the spectra and therefore on the Eg statistics which is constructed from the combination of the two. Moreover, including it, renders the Eg statistics scale and bias-dependent and hence puts into question its very objective.

A New Technique for Personality Scale Construction. Preliminary Findings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaffner, Paul E.; Darlington, Richard B.

Most methods of personality scale construction have clear statistical disadvantages. A hybrid method (Darlington and Bishop, 1966) was found to increase scale validity more than any other method, with large item pools. A simple modification of the Darlington-Bishop method (algebraically and conceptually similar to ridge regression, but…

The role of large scale motions on passive scalar transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dharmarathne, Suranga; Araya, Guillermo; Tutkun, Murat; Leonardi, Stefano; Castillo, Luciano

2014-11-01

We study direct numerical simulation (DNS) of turbulent channel flow at Reτ = 394 to investigate effect of large scale motions on fluctuating temperature field which forms a passive scalar field. Statistical description of the large scale features of the turbulent channel flow is obtained using two-point correlations of velocity components. Two-point correlations of fluctuating temperature field is also examined in order to identify possible similarities between velocity and temperature fields. The two-point cross-correlations betwen the velocity and temperature fluctuations are further analyzed to establish connections between these two fields. In addition, we use proper orhtogonal decompotion (POD) to extract most dominant modes of the fields and discuss the coupling of large scale features of turbulence and the temperature field.

New Statistical Model for Variability of Aerosol Optical Thickness: Theory and Application to MODIS Data over Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexandrov, Mikhail Dmitrievic; Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; Marshak, Alexander; Levy, Robert; Cairns, Brian

2016-01-01

A novel model for the variability in aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is presented. This model is based on the consideration of AOT fields as realizations of a stochastic process, that is the exponent of an underlying Gaussian process with a specific autocorrelation function. In this approach AOT fields have lognormal PDFs and structure functions having the correct asymptotic behavior at large scales. The latter is an advantage compared with fractal (scale-invariant) approaches. The simple analytical form of the structure function in the proposed model facilitates its use for the parameterization of AOT statistics derived from remote sensing data. The new approach is illustrated using a month-long global MODIS AOT dataset (over ocean) with 10 km resolution. It was used to compute AOT statistics for sample cells forming a grid with 5deg spacing. The observed shapes of the structure functions indicated that in a large number of cases the AOT variability is split into two regimes that exhibit different patterns of behavior: small-scale stationary processes and trends reflecting variations at larger scales. The small-scale patterns are suggested to be generated by local aerosols within the marine boundary layer, while the large-scale trends are indicative of elevated aerosols transported from remote continental sources. This assumption is evaluated by comparison of the geographical distributions of these patterns derived from MODIS data with those obtained from the GISS GCM. This study shows considerable potential to enhance comparisons between remote sensing datasets and climate models beyond regional mean AOTs.

Statistical learning theory for high dimensional prediction: Application to criterion-keyed scale development.

PubMed

Chapman, Benjamin P; Weiss, Alexander; Duberstein, Paul R

2016-12-01

Statistical learning theory (SLT) is the statistical formulation of machine learning theory, a body of analytic methods common in "big data" problems. Regression-based SLT algorithms seek to maximize predictive accuracy for some outcome, given a large pool of potential predictors, without overfitting the sample. Research goals in psychology may sometimes call for high dimensional regression. One example is criterion-keyed scale construction, where a scale with maximal predictive validity must be built from a large item pool. Using this as a working example, we first introduce a core principle of SLT methods: minimization of expected prediction error (EPE). Minimizing EPE is fundamentally different than maximizing the within-sample likelihood, and hinges on building a predictive model of sufficient complexity to predict the outcome well, without undue complexity leading to overfitting. We describe how such models are built and refined via cross-validation. We then illustrate how 3 common SLT algorithms-supervised principal components, regularization, and boosting-can be used to construct a criterion-keyed scale predicting all-cause mortality, using a large personality item pool within a population cohort. Each algorithm illustrates a different approach to minimizing EPE. Finally, we consider broader applications of SLT predictive algorithms, both as supportive analytic tools for conventional methods, and as primary analytic tools in discovery phase research. We conclude that despite their differences from the classic null-hypothesis testing approach-or perhaps because of them-SLT methods may hold value as a statistically rigorous approach to exploratory regression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Computational Complexity of Bosons in Linear Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

photon statistics while strongly reducing emission probabilities: thus leading experimental teams pursuing large-scale BOSONSAMPLING have faced a hard...Potentially, this could motivate new validation protocols exploiting statistics that include this temporal degree of freedom. The impact of...photon- statistics polluted by higher-order terms, which can be mistakenly interpreted as decreased photon-indistinguishability. In fact, in many cases

Robust Fixed-Structure Control

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-10-30

Deterministic Foundation for Statistical Energy Analysis ," J. Sound Vibr., to appear. 1.96 D. S. Bernstein and S. P. Bhat, "Lyapunov Stability, Semistability...S. Bernstein, "Power Flow, Energy Balance, and Statistical Energy Analysis for Large Scale, Interconnected Systems," Proc. Amer. Contr. Conf., pp

Field-aligned currents' scale analysis performed with the Swarm constellation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lühr, Hermann; Park, Jaeheung; Gjerloev, Jesper W.; Rauberg, Jan; Michaelis, Ingo; Merayo, Jose M. G.; Brauer, Peter

2015-01-01

We present a statistical study of the temporal- and spatial-scale characteristics of different field-aligned current (FAC) types derived with the Swarm satellite formation. We divide FACs into two classes: small-scale, up to some 10 km, which are carried predominantly by kinetic Alfvén waves, and large-scale FACs with sizes of more than 150 km. For determining temporal variability we consider measurements at the same point, the orbital crossovers near the poles, but at different times. From correlation analysis we obtain a persistent period of small-scale FACs of order 10 s, while large-scale FACs can be regarded stationary for more than 60 s. For the first time we investigate the longitudinal scales. Large-scale FACs are different on dayside and nightside. On the nightside the longitudinal extension is on average 4 times the latitudinal width, while on the dayside, particularly in the cusp region, latitudinal and longitudinal scales are comparable.

Broken Symmetries and Magnetic Dynamos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shebalin, John V.

2007-01-01

Phase space symmetries inherent in the statistical theory of ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence are known to be broken dynamically to produce large-scale coherent magnetic structure. Here, results of a numerical study of decaying MHD turbulence are presented that show large-scale coherent structure also arises and persists in the presence of dissipation. Dynamically broken symmetries in MHD turbulence may thus play a fundamental role in the dynamo process.

Gaining Ground in the Middle Grades: Why Some Schools Do Better. A Large-Scale Study of Middle Grades Practices and Student Outcomes. Technical Appendix B

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

EdSource, 2010

2010-01-01

This appendix focuses on the descriptive statistics of the middle study schools that participated in the "Gaining Ground in the Middle Grades: Why Some Schools Do Better. A Large-Scale Study of Middle Grades Practices and Student Outcomes. Initial Research." This appendix contains the following figures: (1) Student…

Structure Discovery in Large Semantic Graphs Using Extant Ontological Scaling and Descriptive Statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

al-Saffar, Sinan; Joslyn, Cliff A.; Chappell, Alan R.

As semantic datasets grow to be very large and divergent, there is a need to identify and exploit their inherent semantic structure for discovery and optimization. Towards that end, we present here a novel methodology to identify the semantic structures inherent in an arbitrary semantic graph dataset. We first present the concept of an extant ontology as a statistical description of the semantic relations present amongst the typed entities modeled in the graph. This serves as a model of the underlying semantic structure to aid in discovery and visualization. We then describe a method of ontological scaling in which themore » ontology is employed as a hierarchical scaling filter to infer different resolution levels at which the graph structures are to be viewed or analyzed. We illustrate these methods on three large and publicly available semantic datasets containing more than one billion edges each. Keywords-Semantic Web; Visualization; Ontology; Multi-resolution Data Mining;« less

A review of empirical research related to the use of small quantitative samples in clinical outcome scale development.

PubMed

Houts, Carrie R; Edwards, Michael C; Wirth, R J; Deal, Linda S

2016-11-01

There has been a notable increase in the advocacy of using small-sample designs as an initial quantitative assessment of item and scale performance during the scale development process. This is particularly true in the development of clinical outcome assessments (COAs), where Rasch analysis has been advanced as an appropriate statistical tool for evaluating the developing COAs using a small sample. We review the benefits such methods are purported to offer from both a practical and statistical standpoint and detail several problematic areas, including both practical and statistical theory concerns, with respect to the use of quantitative methods, including Rasch-consistent methods, with small samples. The feasibility of obtaining accurate information and the potential negative impacts of misusing large-sample statistical methods with small samples during COA development are discussed.

Solving large scale structure in ten easy steps with COLA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tassev, Svetlin; Zaldarriaga, Matias; Eisenstein, Daniel J.

2013-06-01

We present the COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration (COLA) method: an N-body method for solving for Large Scale Structure (LSS) in a frame that is comoving with observers following trajectories calculated in Lagrangian Perturbation Theory (LPT). Unlike standard N-body methods, the COLA method can straightforwardly trade accuracy at small-scales in order to gain computational speed without sacrificing accuracy at large scales. This is especially useful for cheaply generating large ensembles of accurate mock halo catalogs required to study galaxy clustering and weak lensing, as those catalogs are essential for performing detailed error analysis for ongoing and future surveys of LSS. As an illustration, we ran a COLA-based N-body code on a box of size 100 Mpc/h with particles of mass ≈ 5 × 109Msolar/h. Running the code with only 10 timesteps was sufficient to obtain an accurate description of halo statistics down to halo masses of at least 1011Msolar/h. This is only at a modest speed penalty when compared to mocks obtained with LPT. A standard detailed N-body run is orders of magnitude slower than our COLA-based code. The speed-up we obtain with COLA is due to the fact that we calculate the large-scale dynamics exactly using LPT, while letting the N-body code solve for the small scales, without requiring it to capture exactly the internal dynamics of halos. Achieving a similar level of accuracy in halo statistics without the COLA method requires at least 3 times more timesteps than when COLA is employed.

Effects of multiple-scale driving on turbulence statistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoo, Hyunju; Cho, Jungyeon, E-mail: hyunju527@gmail.com, E-mail: jcho@cnu.ac.kr

2014-01-01

Turbulence is ubiquitous in astrophysical fluids such as the interstellar medium and the intracluster medium. In turbulence studies, it is customary to assume that fluid is driven on a single scale. However, in astrophysical fluids, there can be many different driving mechanisms that act on different scales. If there are multiple energy-injection scales, the process of energy cascade and turbulence dynamo will be different compared with the case of the single energy-injection scale. In this work, we perform three-dimensional incompressible/compressible magnetohydrodynamic turbulence simulations. We drive turbulence in Fourier space in two wavenumber ranges, 2≤k≤√12 (large scale) and 15 ≲ kmore » ≲ 26 (small scale). We inject different amount of energy in each range by changing the amplitude of forcing in the range. We present the time evolution of the kinetic and magnetic energy densities and discuss the turbulence dynamo in the presence of energy injections at two scales. We show how kinetic, magnetic, and density spectra are affected by the two-scale energy injections and we discuss the observational implications. In the case ε {sub L} < ε {sub S}, where ε {sub L} and ε {sub S} are energy-injection rates at the large and small scales, respectively, our results show that even a tiny amount of large-scale energy injection can significantly change the properties of turbulence. On the other hand, when ε {sub L} ≳ ε {sub S}, the small-scale driving does not influence the turbulence statistics much unless ε {sub L} ∼ ε {sub S}.« less

Topology of Neutral Hydrogen within the Small Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chepurnov, A.; Gordon, J.; Lazarian, A.; Stanimirovic, S.

2008-12-01

In this paper, genus statistics have been applied to an H I column density map of the Small Magellanic Cloud in order to study its topology. To learn how topology changes with the scale of the system, we provide topology studies for column density maps at varying resolutions. To evaluate the statistical error of the genus, we randomly reassign the phases of the Fourier modes while keeping the amplitudes. We find that at the smallest scales studied (40 pc <= λ <= 80 pc), the genus shift is negative in all regions, implying a clump topology. At the larger scales (110 pc <= λ <= 250 pc), the topology shift is detected to be negative (a "meatball" topology) in four cases and positive (a "swiss cheese" topology) in two cases. In four regions, there is no statistically significant topology shift at large scales.

Statistical mechanics of soft-boson phase transitions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Arun K.; Hill, Christopher T.; Holman, Richard; Kolb, Edward W.

1991-01-01

The existence of structure on large (100 Mpc) scales, and limits to anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR), have imperiled models of structure formation based solely upon the standard cold dark matter scenario. Novel scenarios, which may be compatible with large scale structure and small CMBR anisotropies, invoke nonlinear fluctuations in the density appearing after recombination, accomplished via the use of late time phase transitions involving ultralow mass scalar bosons. Herein, the statistical mechanics are studied of such phase transitions in several models involving naturally ultralow mass pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons (pNGB's). These models can exhibit several interesting effects at high temperature, which is believed to be the most general possibilities for pNGB's.

A Virtual Study of Grid Resolution on Experiments of a Highly-Resolved Turbulent Plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maisto, Pietro M. F.; Marshall, Andre W.; Gollner, Michael J.; Fire Protection Engineering Department Collaboration

2017-11-01

An accurate representation of sub-grid scale turbulent mixing is critical for modeling fire plumes and smoke transport. In this study, PLIF and PIV diagnostics are used with the saltwater modeling technique to provide highly-resolved instantaneous field measurements in unconfined turbulent plumes useful for statistical analysis, physical insight, and model validation. The effect of resolution was investigated employing a virtual interrogation window (of varying size) applied to the high-resolution field measurements. Motivated by LES low-pass filtering concepts, the high-resolution experimental data in this study can be analyzed within the interrogation windows (i.e. statistics at the sub-grid scale) and on interrogation windows (i.e. statistics at the resolved scale). A dimensionless resolution threshold (L/D*) criterion was determined to achieve converged statistics on the filtered measurements. Such a criterion was then used to establish the relative importance between large and small-scale turbulence phenomena while investigating specific scales for the turbulent flow. First order data sets start to collapse at a resolution of 0.3D*, while for second and higher order statistical moments the interrogation window size drops down to 0.2D*.

The statistical power to detect cross-scale interactions at macroscales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Fergus, C. Emi; Stow, Craig A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra S.; Soranno, Patricia A.

2016-01-01

Macroscale studies of ecological phenomena are increasingly common because stressors such as climate and land-use change operate at large spatial and temporal scales. Cross-scale interactions (CSIs), where ecological processes operating at one spatial or temporal scale interact with processes operating at another scale, have been documented in a variety of ecosystems and contribute to complex system dynamics. However, studies investigating CSIs are often dependent on compiling multiple data sets from different sources to create multithematic, multiscaled data sets, which results in structurally complex, and sometimes incomplete data sets. The statistical power to detect CSIs needs to be evaluated because of their importance and the challenge of quantifying CSIs using data sets with complex structures and missing observations. We studied this problem using a spatially hierarchical model that measures CSIs between regional agriculture and its effects on the relationship between lake nutrients and lake productivity. We used an existing large multithematic, multiscaled database, LAke multiscaled GeOSpatial, and temporal database (LAGOS), to parameterize the power analysis simulations. We found that the power to detect CSIs was more strongly related to the number of regions in the study rather than the number of lakes nested within each region. CSI power analyses will not only help ecologists design large-scale studies aimed at detecting CSIs, but will also focus attention on CSI effect sizes and the degree to which they are ecologically relevant and detectable with large data sets.

Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

2015-04-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach basically consisted in 1- decomposing both signals (SLP field and precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis and synthesis, 2- generating one statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3- summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD ; in addition, the scale-dependent spatial patterns associated to the model matched quite well those obtained from scale-dependent composite analysis. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either prepciptation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. Further investigations would be required to address the issue of the stationarity of the large-scale/local-scale relationships and to test the capability of the multiresolution ESD model for interannual-to-interdecadal forecasting. In terms of methodological approach, further investigations may concern a fully comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the modeling to the parameter of the multiresolution approach (different families of scaling and wavelet functions used, number of coefficients/degree of smoothness, etc.).

Extreme value statistics and finite-size scaling at the ecological extinction/laminar-turbulence transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Hong-Yan; Goldenfeld, Nigel

Experiments on transitional turbulence in pipe flow seem to show that turbulence is a transient metastable state since the measured mean lifetime of turbulence puffs does not diverge asymptotically at a critical Reynolds number. Yet measurements reveal that the lifetime scales with Reynolds number in a super-exponential way reminiscent of extreme value statistics, and simulations and experiments in Couette and channel flow exhibit directed percolation type scaling phenomena near a well-defined transition. This universality class arises from the interplay between small-scale turbulence and a large-scale collective zonal flow, which exhibit predator-prey behavior. Why is asymptotically divergent behavior not observed? Using directed percolation and a stochastic individual level model of predator-prey dynamics related to transitional turbulence, we investigate the relation between extreme value statistics and power law critical behavior, and show that the paradox is resolved by carefully defining what is measured in the experiments. We theoretically derive the super-exponential scaling law, and using finite-size scaling, show how the same data can give both super-exponential behavior and power-law critical scaling.

Large-scale gene function analysis with the PANTHER classification system.

PubMed

Mi, Huaiyu; Muruganujan, Anushya; Casagrande, John T; Thomas, Paul D

2013-08-01

The PANTHER (protein annotation through evolutionary relationship) classification system (http://www.pantherdb.org/) is a comprehensive system that combines gene function, ontology, pathways and statistical analysis tools that enable biologists to analyze large-scale, genome-wide data from sequencing, proteomics or gene expression experiments. The system is built with 82 complete genomes organized into gene families and subfamilies, and their evolutionary relationships are captured in phylogenetic trees, multiple sequence alignments and statistical models (hidden Markov models or HMMs). Genes are classified according to their function in several different ways: families and subfamilies are annotated with ontology terms (Gene Ontology (GO) and PANTHER protein class), and sequences are assigned to PANTHER pathways. The PANTHER website includes a suite of tools that enable users to browse and query gene functions, and to analyze large-scale experimental data with a number of statistical tests. It is widely used by bench scientists, bioinformaticians, computer scientists and systems biologists. In the 2013 release of PANTHER (v.8.0), in addition to an update of the data content, we redesigned the website interface to improve both user experience and the system's analytical capability. This protocol provides a detailed description of how to analyze genome-wide experimental data with the PANTHER classification system.

Chlorophyll a and inorganic suspended solids in backwaters of the upper Mississippi River system: Backwater lake effects and their associations with selected environmental predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogala, James T.; Gray, Brian R.

2006-01-01

The Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) uses a stratified random sampling design to obtain water quality statistics within selected study reaches of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). LTRMP sampling strata are based on aquatic area types generally found in large rivers (e.g., main channel, side channel, backwater, and impounded areas). For hydrologically well-mixed strata (i.e., main channel), variance associated with spatial scales smaller than the strata scale is a relatively minor issue for many water quality parameters. However, analysis of LTRMP water quality data has shown that within-strata variability at the strata scale is high in off-channel areas (i.e., backwaters). A portion of that variability may be associated with differences among individual backwater lakes (i.e., small and large backwater regions separated by channels) that cumulatively make up the backwater stratum. The objective of the statistical modeling presented here is to determine if differences among backwater lakes account for a large portion of the variance observed in the backwater stratum for selected parameters. If variance associated with backwater lakes is high, then inclusion of backwater lake effects within statistical models is warranted. Further, lakes themselves may represent natural experimental units where associations of interest to management may be estimated.

Cloud-based solution to identify statistically significant MS peaks differentiating sample categories.

PubMed

Ji, Jun; Ling, Jeffrey; Jiang, Helen; Wen, Qiaojun; Whitin, John C; Tian, Lu; Cohen, Harvey J; Ling, Xuefeng B

2013-03-23

Mass spectrometry (MS) has evolved to become the primary high throughput tool for proteomics based biomarker discovery. Until now, multiple challenges in protein MS data analysis remain: large-scale and complex data set management; MS peak identification, indexing; and high dimensional peak differential analysis with the concurrent statistical tests based false discovery rate (FDR). "Turnkey" solutions are needed for biomarker investigations to rapidly process MS data sets to identify statistically significant peaks for subsequent validation. Here we present an efficient and effective solution, which provides experimental biologists easy access to "cloud" computing capabilities to analyze MS data. The web portal can be accessed at http://transmed.stanford.edu/ssa/. Presented web application supplies large scale MS data online uploading and analysis with a simple user interface. This bioinformatic tool will facilitate the discovery of the potential protein biomarkers using MS.

Under the influence of Malthus's law of population growth: Darwin eschews the statistical techniques of Aldolphe Quetelet.

PubMed

Ariew, André

2007-03-01

Charles Darwin, James Clerk Maxwell, and Francis Galton were all aware, by various means, of Aldolphe Quetelet's pioneering work in statistics. Darwin, Maxwell, and Galton all had reason to be interested in Quetelet's work: they were all working on some instance of how large-scale regularities emerge from individual events that vary from one another; all were rejecting the divine interventionistic theories of their contemporaries; and Quetelet's techniques provided them with a way forward. Maxwell and Galton all explicitly endorse Quetelet's techniques in their work; Darwin does not incorporate any of the statistical ideas of Quetelet, although natural selection post-twentieth century synthesis has. Why not Darwin? My answer is that by the time Darwin encountered Malthus's law of excess reproduction he had all he needed to answer about large scale regularities in extinctions, speciation, and adaptation. He didn't need Quetelet.

Computational domain length and Reynolds number effects on large-scale coherent motions in turbulent pipe flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldmann, Daniel; Bauer, Christian; Wagner, Claus

2018-03-01

We present results from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent pipe flow at shear Reynolds numbers up to Reτ = 1500 using different computational domains with lengths up to ?. The objectives are to analyse the effect of the finite size of the periodic pipe domain on large flow structures in dependency of Reτ and to assess a minimum ? required for relevant turbulent scales to be captured and a minimum Reτ for very large-scale motions (VLSM) to be analysed. Analysing one-point statistics revealed that the mean velocity profile is invariant for ?. The wall-normal location at which deviations occur in shorter domains changes strongly with increasing Reτ from the near-wall region to the outer layer, where VLSM are believed to live. The root mean square velocity profiles exhibit domain length dependencies for pipes shorter than 14R and 7R depending on Reτ. For all Reτ, the higher-order statistical moments show only weak dependencies and only for the shortest domain considered here. However, the analysis of one- and two-dimensional pre-multiplied energy spectra revealed that even for larger ?, not all physically relevant scales are fully captured, even though the aforementioned statistics are in good agreement with the literature. We found ? to be sufficiently large to capture VLSM-relevant turbulent scales in the considered range of Reτ based on our definition of an integral energy threshold of 10%. The requirement to capture at least 1/10 of the global maximum energy level is justified by a 14% increase of the streamwise turbulence intensity in the outer region between Reτ = 720 and 1500, which can be related to VLSM-relevant length scales. Based on this scaling anomaly, we found Reτ⪆1500 to be a necessary minimum requirement to investigate VLSM-related effects in pipe flow, even though the streamwise energy spectra does not yet indicate sufficient scale separation between the most energetic and the very long motions.

Statistical Analysis of Small-Scale Magnetic Flux Emergence Patterns: A Useful Subsurface Diagnostic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Derek A.

2016-10-01

While sunspots follow a well-defined pattern of emergence in space and time, small-scale flux emergence is assumed to occur randomly at all times in the quiet Sun. HMI's full-disk coverage, high cadence, spatial resolution, and duty cycle allow us to probe that basic assumption. Some case studies of emergence suggest that temporal clustering on spatial scales of 50-150 Mm may occur. If clustering is present, it could serve as a diagnostic of large-scale subsurface magnetic field structures. We present the results of a manual survey of small-scale flux emergence events over a short time period, and a statistical analysis addressing the question of whether these events show spatio-temporal behavior that is anything other than random.

Controlling Guessing Bias in the Dichotomous Rasch Model Applied to a Large-Scale, Vertically Scaled Testing Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrich, David; Marais, Ida; Humphry, Stephen Mark

2016-01-01

Recent research has shown how the statistical bias in Rasch model difficulty estimates induced by guessing in multiple-choice items can be eliminated. Using vertical scaling of a high-profile national reading test, it is shown that the dominant effect of removing such bias is a nonlinear change in the unit of scale across the continuum. The…

Robust Detection of Examinees with Aberrant Answer Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belov, Dmitry I.

2015-01-01

The statistical analysis of answer changes (ACs) has uncovered multiple testing irregularities on large-scale assessments and is now routinely performed at testing organizations. However, AC data has an uncertainty caused by technological or human factors. Therefore, existing statistics (e.g., number of wrong-to-right ACs) used to detect examinees…

Statistical Measures of Large-Scale Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogeley, Michael; Geller, Margaret; Huchra, John; Park, Changbom; Gott, J. Richard

1993-12-01

\\inv Mpc} To quantify clustering in the large-scale distribution of galaxies and to test theories for the formation of structure in the universe, we apply statistical measures to the CfA Redshift Survey. This survey is complete to m_{B(0)}=15.5 over two contiguous regions which cover one-quarter of the sky and include ~ 11,000 galaxies. The salient features of these data are voids with diameter 30-50\\hmpc and coherent dense structures with a scale ~ 100\\hmpc. Comparison with N-body simulations rules out the ``standard" CDM model (Omega =1, b=1.5, sigma_8 =1) at the 99% confidence level because this model has insufficient power on scales lambda >30\\hmpc. An unbiased open universe CDM model (Omega h =0.2) and a biased CDM model with non-zero cosmological constant (Omega h =0.24, lambda_0 =0.6) match the observed power spectrum. The amplitude of the power spectrum depends on the luminosity of galaxies in the sample; bright (L>L(*) ) galaxies are more strongly clustered than faint galaxies. The paucity of bright galaxies in low-density regions may explain this dependence. To measure the topology of large-scale structure, we compute the genus of isodensity surfaces of the smoothed density field. On scales in the ``non-linear" regime, <= 10\\hmpc, the high- and low-density regions are multiply-connected over a broad range of density threshold, as in a filamentary net. On smoothing scales >10\\hmpc, the topology is consistent with statistics of a Gaussian random field. Simulations of CDM models fail to produce the observed coherence of structure on non-linear scales (>95% confidence level). The underdensity probability (the frequency of regions with density contrast delta rho //lineρ=-0.8) depends strongly on the luminosity of galaxies; underdense regions are significantly more common (>2sigma ) in bright (L>L(*) ) galaxy samples than in samples which include fainter galaxies.

Measures of large-scale structure in the CfA redshift survey slices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Lapparent, Valerie; Geller, Margaret J.; Huchra, John P.

1991-01-01

Variations of the counts-in-cells with cell size are used here to define two statistical measures of large-scale clustering in three 6 deg slices of the CfA redshift survey. A percolation criterion is used to estimate the filling factor which measures the fraction of the total volume in the survey occupied by the large-scale structures. For the full 18 deg slice of the CfA redshift survey, f is about 0.25 + or - 0.05. After removing groups with more than five members from two of the slices, variations of the counts in occupied cells with cell size have a power-law behavior with a slope beta about 2.2 on scales from 1-10/h Mpc. Application of both this statistic and the percolation analysis to simulations suggests that a network of two-dimensional structures is a better description of the geometry of the clustering in the CfA slices than a network of one-dimensional structures. Counts-in-cells are also used to estimate at 0.3 galaxy h-squared/Mpc the average galaxy surface density in sheets like the Great Wall.

Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalise, D. R.; Haj, Adel E.; Fontaine, T.A.

2018-01-01

The hydrological simulation program Fortran (HSPF) [Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) [Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use, and climate on basin hydrology and streamflow. Both models have been applied independently to many watersheds across the United States. This paper reports the statistical results assessing various temporal (daily, monthly, and annual) and spatial (small versus large watershed) scale biases in HSPF and PRMS simulations using two watersheds in the Black Hills, South Dakota. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r">rr), and coefficient of determination (R2">R2R2) statistics for the daily, monthly, and annual flows were used to evaluate the models’ performance. Results from the HSPF models showed that the HSPF consistently simulated the annual flows for both large and small basins better than the monthly and daily flows, and the simulated flows for the small watershed better than flows for the large watershed. In comparison, the PRMS model results show that the PRMS simulated the monthly flows for both the large and small watersheds better than the daily and annual flows, and the range of statistical error in the PRMS models was greater than that in the HSPF models. Moreover, it can be concluded that the statistical error in the HSPF and the PRMSdaily, monthly, and annual flow estimates for watersheds in the Black Hills was influenced by both temporal and spatial scale variability.

Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

2008-03-01

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean <τ>. We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

Statistical model of exotic rotational correlations in emergent space-time

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, Craig; Kwon, Ohkyung; Richardson, Jonathan

2017-06-06

A statistical model is formulated to compute exotic rotational correlations that arise as inertial frames and causal structure emerge on large scales from entangled Planck scale quantum systems. Noncommutative quantum dynamics are represented by random transverse displacements that respect causal symmetry. Entanglement is represented by covariance of these displacements in Planck scale intervals defined by future null cones of events on an observer's world line. Light that propagates in a nonradial direction inherits a projected component of the exotic rotational correlation that accumulates as a random walk in phase. A calculation of the projection and accumulation leads to exact predictionsmore » for statistical properties of exotic Planck scale correlations in an interferometer of any configuration. The cross-covariance for two nearly co-located interferometers is shown to depart only slightly from the autocovariance. Specific examples are computed for configurations that approximate realistic experiments, and show that the model can be rigorously tested.« less

A worldwide analysis of the impact of forest cover change on annual runoff across multiple spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; Liu, S.

2017-12-01

Despite extensive studies on hydrological responses to forest cover change in small watersheds, the hydrological responses to forest change and associated mechanisms across multiple spatial scales have not been fully understood. This review thus examined about 312 watersheds worldwide to provide a generalized framework to evaluate hydrological responses to forest cover change and to identify the contribution of spatial scale, climate, forest type and hydrological regime in determining the intensity of forest change related hydrological responses in small (<1000 km2) and large watersheds (≥1000 km2). Key findings include: 1) the increase in annual runoff associated with forest cover loss is statistically significant at multiple spatial scales whereas the effect of forest cover gain is statistically inconsistent; 2) the sensitivity of annual runoff to forest cover change tends to attenuate as watershed size increases only in large watersheds; 3) annual runoff is more sensitive to forest cover change in water-limited watersheds than in energy-limited watersheds across all spatial scales; and 4) small mixed forest-dominated watersheds or large snow-dominated watersheds are more hydrologically resilient to forest cover change. These findings improve the understanding of hydrological response to forest cover change at different spatial scales and provide a scientific underpinning to future watershed management in the context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic disturbances.

GENASIS Basics: Object-oriented utilitarian functionality for large-scale physics simulations (Version 2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardall, Christian Y.; Budiardja, Reuben D.

2017-05-01

GenASiS Basics provides Fortran 2003 classes furnishing extensible object-oriented utilitarian functionality for large-scale physics simulations on distributed memory supercomputers. This functionality includes physical units and constants; display to the screen or standard output device; message passing; I/O to disk; and runtime parameter management and usage statistics. This revision -Version 2 of Basics - makes mostly minor additions to functionality and includes some simplifying name changes.

Emperical Laws in Economics Uncovered Using Methods in Statistical Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, H. Eugene

2001-06-01

In recent years, statistical physicists and computational physicists have determined that physical systems which consist of a large number of interacting particles obey universal "scaling laws" that serve to demonstrate an intrinsic self-similarity operating in such systems. Further, the parameters appearing in these scaling laws appear to be largely independent of the microscopic details. Since economic systems also consist of a large number of interacting units, it is plausible that scaling theory can be usefully applied to economics. To test this possibility using realistic data sets, a number of scientists have begun analyzing economic data using methods of statistical physics [1]. We have found evidence for scaling (and data collapse), as well as universality, in various quantities, and these recent results will be reviewed in this talk--starting with the most recent study [2]. We also propose models that may lead to some insight into these phenomena. These results will be discussed, as well as the overall rationale for why one might expect scaling principles to hold for complex economic systems. This work on which this talk is based is supported by BP, and was carried out in collaboration with L. A. N. Amaral S. V. Buldyrev, D. Canning, P. Cizeau, X. Gabaix, P. Gopikrishnan, S. Havlin, Y. Lee, Y. Liu, R. N. Mantegna, K. Matia, M. Meyer, C.-K. Peng, V. Plerou, M. A. Salinger, and M. H. R. Stanley. [1.] See, e.g., R. N. Mantegna and H. E. Stanley, Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations & Complexity in Finance (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999). [2.] P. Gopikrishnan, B. Rosenow, V. Plerou, and H. E. Stanley, "Identifying Business Sectors from Stock Price Fluctuations," e-print cond-mat/0011145; V. Plerou, P. Gopikrishnan, L. A. N. Amaral, X. Gabaix, and H. E. Stanley, "Diffusion and Economic Fluctuations," Phys. Rev. E (Rapid Communications) 62, 3023-3026 (2000); P. Gopikrishnan, V. Plerou, X. Gabaix, and H. E. Stanley, "Statistical Properties of Share Volume Traded in Financial Markets," Phys. Rev. E (Rapid Communications) 62, 4493-4496 (2000).

Solving large scale structure in ten easy steps with COLA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tassev, Svetlin; Zaldarriaga, Matias; Eisenstein, Daniel J., E-mail: stassev@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: matiasz@ias.edu, E-mail: deisenstein@cfa.harvard.edu

2013-06-01

We present the COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration (COLA) method: an N-body method for solving for Large Scale Structure (LSS) in a frame that is comoving with observers following trajectories calculated in Lagrangian Perturbation Theory (LPT). Unlike standard N-body methods, the COLA method can straightforwardly trade accuracy at small-scales in order to gain computational speed without sacrificing accuracy at large scales. This is especially useful for cheaply generating large ensembles of accurate mock halo catalogs required to study galaxy clustering and weak lensing, as those catalogs are essential for performing detailed error analysis for ongoing and future surveys of LSS. As anmore » illustration, we ran a COLA-based N-body code on a box of size 100 Mpc/h with particles of mass ≈ 5 × 10{sup 9}M{sub s}un/h. Running the code with only 10 timesteps was sufficient to obtain an accurate description of halo statistics down to halo masses of at least 10{sup 11}M{sub s}un/h. This is only at a modest speed penalty when compared to mocks obtained with LPT. A standard detailed N-body run is orders of magnitude slower than our COLA-based code. The speed-up we obtain with COLA is due to the fact that we calculate the large-scale dynamics exactly using LPT, while letting the N-body code solve for the small scales, without requiring it to capture exactly the internal dynamics of halos. Achieving a similar level of accuracy in halo statistics without the COLA method requires at least 3 times more timesteps than when COLA is employed.« less

Extracting Primordial Non-Gaussianity from Large Scale Structure in the Post-Planck Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dore, Olivier

Astronomical observations have become a unique tool to probe fundamental physics. Cosmology, in particular, emerged as a data-driven science whose phenomenological modeling has achieved great success: in the post-Planck era, key cosmological parameters are measured to percent precision. A single model reproduces a wealth of astronomical observations involving very distinct physical processes at different times. This success leads to fundamental physical questions. One of the most salient is the origin of the primordial perturbations that grew to form the large-scale structures we now observe. More and more cosmological observables point to inflationary physics as the origin of the structure observed in the universe. Inflationary physics predict the statistical properties of the primordial perturbations and it is thought to be slightly non-Gaussian. The detection of this small deviation from Gaussianity represents the next frontier in early Universe physics. To measure it would provide direct, unique and quantitative insights about the physics at play when the Universe was only a fraction of a second old, thus probing energies untouchable otherwise. En par with the well-known relic gravitational wave radiation -- the famous ``B-modes'' -- it is one the few probes of inflation. This departure from Gaussianity leads to very specific signature in the large scale clustering of galaxies. Observing large-scale structure, we can thus establish a direct connection with fundamental theories of the early universe. In the post-Planck era, large-scale structures are our most promising pathway to measuring this primordial signal. Current estimates suggests that the next generation of space or ground based large scale structure surveys (e.g. the ESA EUCLID or NASA WFIRST missions) might enable a detection of this signal. This potential huge payoff requires us to solidify the theoretical predictions supporting these measurements. Even if the exact signal we are looking for is of unknown amplitude, it is obvious that we must measure it as well as these ground breaking data set will permit. We propose to develop the supporting theoretical work to the point where the complete non-gaussianian signature can be extracted from these data sets. We will do so by developing three complementary directions: - We will develop the appropriate formalism to measure and model galaxy clustering on the largest scales. - We will study the impact of non-Gaussianity on higher-order statistics, the most promising statistics for our purpose.. - We will explicit the connection between these observables and the microphysics of a large class of inflation models, but also identify fundamental limitations to this interpretation.

Fast numerical methods for simulating large-scale integrate-and-fire neuronal networks.

PubMed

Rangan, Aaditya V; Cai, David

2007-02-01

We discuss numerical methods for simulating large-scale, integrate-and-fire (I&F) neuronal networks. Important elements in our numerical methods are (i) a neurophysiologically inspired integrating factor which casts the solution as a numerically tractable integral equation, and allows us to obtain stable and accurate individual neuronal trajectories (i.e., voltage and conductance time-courses) even when the I&F neuronal equations are stiff, such as in strongly fluctuating, high-conductance states; (ii) an iterated process of spike-spike corrections within groups of strongly coupled neurons to account for spike-spike interactions within a single large numerical time-step; and (iii) a clustering procedure of firing events in the network to take advantage of localized architectures, such as spatial scales of strong local interactions, which are often present in large-scale computational models-for example, those of the primary visual cortex. (We note that the spike-spike corrections in our methods are more involved than the correction of single neuron spike-time via a polynomial interpolation as in the modified Runge-Kutta methods commonly used in simulations of I&F neuronal networks.) Our methods can evolve networks with relatively strong local interactions in an asymptotically optimal way such that each neuron fires approximately once in [Formula: see text] operations, where N is the number of neurons in the system. We note that quantifications used in computational modeling are often statistical, since measurements in a real experiment to characterize physiological systems are typically statistical, such as firing rate, interspike interval distributions, and spike-triggered voltage distributions. We emphasize that it takes much less computational effort to resolve statistical properties of certain I&F neuronal networks than to fully resolve trajectories of each and every neuron within the system. For networks operating in realistic dynamical regimes, such as strongly fluctuating, high-conductance states, our methods are designed to achieve statistical accuracy when very large time-steps are used. Moreover, our methods can also achieve trajectory-wise accuracy when small time-steps are used.

Macroecological patterns of phytoplankton in the northwestern North Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Li, W K W

2002-09-12

Many issues in biological oceanography are regional or global in scope; however, there are not many data sets of extensive areal coverage for marine plankton. In microbial ecology, a fruitful approach to large-scale questions is comparative analysis wherein statistical data patterns are sought from different ecosystems, frequently assembled from unrelated studies. A more recent approach termed macroecology characterizes phenomena emerging from large numbers of biological units by emphasizing the shapes and boundaries of statistical distributions, because these reflect the constraints on variation. Here, I use a set of flow cytometric measurements to provide macroecological perspectives on North Atlantic phytoplankton communities. Distinct trends of abundance in picophytoplankton and both small and large nanophytoplankton underlaid two patterns. First, total abundance of the three groups was related to assemblage mean-cell size according to the 3/4 power law of allometric scaling in biology. Second, cytometric diversity (an ataxonomic measure of assemblage entropy) was maximal at intermediate levels of water column stratification. Here, intermediate disturbance shapes diversity through an equitable distribution of cells in size classes, from which arises a high overall biomass. By subsuming local fluctuations, macroecology reveals meaningful patterns of phytoplankton at large scales.

Effects of Large-Scale Solar Installations on Dust Mobilization and Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratt, J. T.; Singh, D.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2012-12-01

Large-scale solar projects are increasingly being developed worldwide and many of these installations are located in arid, desert regions. To examine the effects of these projects on regional dust mobilization and air quality, we analyze aerosol product data from NASA's Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) at annual and seasonal time intervals near fifteen photovoltaic and solar thermal stations ranging from 5-200 MW (12-4,942 acres) in size. The stations are distributed over eight different countries and were chosen based on size, location and installation date; most of the installations are large-scale, took place in desert climates and were installed between 2006 and 2010. We also consider air quality measurements of particulate matter between 2.5 and 10 micrometers (PM10) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) monitoring sites near and downwind from the project installations in the U.S. We use monthly wind data from the NOAA's National Center for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) Global Reanalysis to select the stations downwind from the installations, and then perform statistical analysis on the data to identify any significant changes in these quantities. We find that fourteen of the fifteen regions have lower aerosol product after the start of the installations as well as all six PM10 monitoring stations showing lower particulate matter measurements after construction commenced. Results fail to show any statistically significant differences in aerosol optical index or PM10 measurements before and after the large-scale solar installations. However, many of the large installations are very recent, and there is insufficient data to fully understand the long-term effects on air quality. More data and higher resolution analysis is necessary to better understand the relationship between large-scale solar, dust and air quality.

Analyzing the cosmic variance limit of remote dipole measurements of the cosmic microwave background using the large-scale kinetic Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terrana, Alexandra; Johnson, Matthew C.; Harris, Mary-Jean, E-mail: aterrana@perimeterinstitute.ca, E-mail: mharris8@perimeterinstitute.ca, E-mail: mjohnson@perimeterinstitute.ca

Due to cosmic variance we cannot learn any more about large-scale inhomogeneities from the primary cosmic microwave background (CMB) alone. More information on large scales is essential for resolving large angular scale anomalies in the CMB. Here we consider cross correlating the large-scale kinetic Sunyaev Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect and probes of large-scale structure, a technique known as kSZ tomography. The statistically anisotropic component of the cross correlation encodes the CMB dipole as seen by free electrons throughout the observable Universe, providing information about long wavelength inhomogeneities. We compute the large angular scale power asymmetry, constructing the appropriate transfer functions, andmore » estimate the cosmic variance limited signal to noise for a variety of redshift bin configurations. The signal to noise is significant over a large range of power multipoles and numbers of bins. We present a simple mode counting argument indicating that kSZ tomography can be used to estimate more modes than the primary CMB on comparable scales. A basic forecast indicates that a first detection could be made with next-generation CMB experiments and galaxy surveys. This paper motivates a more systematic investigation of how close to the cosmic variance limit it will be possible to get with future observations.« less

The HI Content of Galaxies as a Function of Local Density and Large-Scale Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoreen, Henry; Cantwell, Kelly; Maloney, Erin; Cane, Thomas; Brough Morris, Theodore; Flory, Oscar; Raskin, Mark; Crone-Odekon, Mary; ALFALFA Team

2017-01-01

We examine the HI content of galaxies as a function of environment, based on a catalogue of 41527 galaxies that are part of the 70% complete Arecibo Legacy Fast-ALFA (ALFALFA) survey. We use nearest-neighbor methods to characterize local environment, and a modified version of the algorithm developed for the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey to classify large-scale environment as group, filament, tendril, or void. We compare the HI content in these environments using statistics that include both HI detections and the upper limits on detections from ALFALFA. The large size of the sample allows to statistically compare the HI content in different environments for early-type galaxies as well as late-type galaxies. This work is supported by NSF grants AST-1211005 and AST-1637339, the Skidmore Faculty-Student Summer Research program, and the Schupf Scholars program.

A fast boosting-based screening method for large-scale association study in complex traits with genetic heterogeneity.

PubMed

Wang, Lu-Yong; Fasulo, D

2006-01-01

Genome-wide association study for complex diseases will generate massive amount of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) data. Univariate statistical test (i.e. Fisher exact test) was used to single out non-associated SNPs. However, the disease-susceptible SNPs may have little marginal effects in population and are unlikely to retain after the univariate tests. Also, model-based methods are impractical for large-scale dataset. Moreover, genetic heterogeneity makes the traditional methods harder to identify the genetic causes of diseases. A more recent random forest method provides a more robust method for screening the SNPs in thousands scale. However, for more large-scale data, i.e., Affymetrix Human Mapping 100K GeneChip data, a faster screening method is required to screening SNPs in whole-genome large scale association analysis with genetic heterogeneity. We propose a boosting-based method for rapid screening in large-scale analysis of complex traits in the presence of genetic heterogeneity. It provides a relatively fast and fairly good tool for screening and limiting the candidate SNPs for further more complex computational modeling task.

(Finite) statistical size effects on compressive strength.

PubMed

Weiss, Jérôme; Girard, Lucas; Gimbert, Florent; Amitrano, David; Vandembroucq, Damien

2014-04-29

The larger structures are, the lower their mechanical strength. Already discussed by Leonardo da Vinci and Edmé Mariotte several centuries ago, size effects on strength remain of crucial importance in modern engineering for the elaboration of safety regulations in structural design or the extrapolation of laboratory results to geophysical field scales. Under tensile loading, statistical size effects are traditionally modeled with a weakest-link approach. One of its prominent results is a prediction of vanishing strength at large scales that can be quantified in the framework of extreme value statistics. Despite a frequent use outside its range of validity, this approach remains the dominant tool in the field of statistical size effects. Here we focus on compressive failure, which concerns a wide range of geophysical and geotechnical situations. We show on historical and recent experimental data that weakest-link predictions are not obeyed. In particular, the mechanical strength saturates at a nonzero value toward large scales. Accounting explicitly for the elastic interactions between defects during the damage process, we build a formal analogy of compressive failure with the depinning transition of an elastic manifold. This critical transition interpretation naturally entails finite-size scaling laws for the mean strength and its associated variability. Theoretical predictions are in remarkable agreement with measurements reported for various materials such as rocks, ice, coal, or concrete. This formalism, which can also be extended to the flowing instability of granular media under multiaxial compression, has important practical consequences for future design rules.

The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics.

PubMed

Colizza, Vittoria; Barrat, Alain; Barthélemy, Marc; Vespignani, Alessandro

2006-02-14

The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.

A Census of Large-scale (≥10 PC), Velocity-coherent, Dense Filaments in the Northern Galactic Plane: Automated Identification Using Minimum Spanning Tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ke; Testi, Leonardo; Burkert, Andreas; Walmsley, C. Malcolm; Beuther, Henrik; Henning, Thomas

2016-09-01

Large-scale gaseous filaments with lengths up to the order of 100 pc are on the upper end of the filamentary hierarchy of the Galactic interstellar medium (ISM). Their association with respect to the Galactic structure and their role in Galactic star formation are of great interest from both an observational and theoretical point of view. Previous “by-eye” searches, combined together, have started to uncover the Galactic distribution of large filaments, yet inherent bias and small sample size limit conclusive statistical results from being drawn. Here, we present (1) a new, automated method for identifying large-scale velocity-coherent dense filaments, and (2) the first statistics and the Galactic distribution of these filaments. We use a customized minimum spanning tree algorithm to identify filaments by connecting voxels in the position-position-velocity space, using the Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey spectroscopic catalog. In the range of 7\\buildrel{\\circ}\\over{.} 5≤slant l≤slant 194^\\circ , we have identified 54 large-scale filaments and derived mass (˜ {10}3{--}{10}5 {M}⊙ ), length (10-276 pc), linear mass density (54-8625 {M}⊙ pc-1), aspect ratio, linearity, velocity gradient, temperature, fragmentation, Galactic location, and orientation angle. The filaments concentrate along major spiral arms. They are widely distributed across the Galactic disk, with 50% located within ±20 pc from the Galactic mid-plane and 27% run in the center of spiral arms. An order of 1% of the molecular ISM is confined in large filaments. Massive star formation is more favorable in large filaments compared to elsewhere. This is the first comprehensive catalog of large filaments that can be useful for a quantitative comparison with spiral structures and numerical simulations.

The variability of tropical ice cloud properties as a function of the large-scale context from ground-based radar-lidar observations over Darwin, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protat, A.; Delanoë, J.; May, P. T.; Haynes, J.; Jakob, C.; O'Connor, E.; Pope, M.; Wheeler, M. C.

2011-08-01

The high complexity of cloud parameterizations now held in models puts more pressure on observational studies to provide useful means to evaluate them. One approach to the problem put forth in the modelling community is to evaluate under what atmospheric conditions the parameterizations fail to simulate the cloud properties and under what conditions they do a good job. It is the ambition of this paper to characterize the variability of the statistical properties of tropical ice clouds in different tropical "regimes" recently identified in the literature to aid the development of better process-oriented parameterizations in models. For this purpose, the statistical properties of non-precipitating tropical ice clouds over Darwin, Australia are characterized using ground-based radar-lidar observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The ice cloud properties analysed are the frequency of ice cloud occurrence, the morphological properties (cloud top height and thickness), and the microphysical and radiative properties (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, and total concentration). The variability of these tropical ice cloud properties is then studied as a function of the large-scale cloud regimes derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the amplitude and phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the large-scale atmospheric regime as derived from a long-term record of radiosonde observations over Darwin. The vertical variability of ice cloud occurrence and microphysical properties is largest in all regimes (1.5 order of magnitude for ice water content and extinction, a factor 3 in effective radius, and three orders of magnitude in concentration, typically). 98 % of ice clouds in our dataset are characterized by either a small cloud fraction (smaller than 0.3) or a very large cloud fraction (larger than 0.9). In the ice part of the troposphere three distinct layers characterized by different statistically-dominant microphysical processes are identified. The variability of the ice cloud properties as a function of the large-scale atmospheric regime, cloud regime, and MJO phase is large, producing mean differences of up to a factor 8 in the frequency of ice cloud occurrence between large-scale atmospheric regimes and mean differences of a factor 2 typically in all microphysical properties. Finally, the diurnal cycle of the frequency of occurrence of ice clouds is also very different between regimes and MJO phases, with diurnal amplitudes of the vertically-integrated frequency of ice cloud occurrence ranging from as low as 0.2 (weak diurnal amplitude) to values in excess of 2.0 (very large diurnal amplitude). Modellers should now use these results to check if their model cloud parameterizations are capable of translating a given atmospheric forcing into the correct statistical ice cloud properties.

Mapping the Energy Cascade in the North Atlantic Ocean: The Coarse-graining Approach

DOE PAGES

Aluie, Hussein; Hecht, Matthew; Vallis, Geoffrey K.

2017-11-14

A coarse-graining framework is implemented to analyze nonlinear processes, measure energy transfer rates and map out the energy pathways from simulated global ocean data. Traditional tools to measure the energy cascade from turbulence theory, such as spectral flux or spectral transfer rely on the assumption of statistical homogeneity, or at least a large separation between the scales of motion and the scales of statistical inhomogeneity. The coarse-graining framework allows for probing the fully nonlinear dynamics simultaneously in scale and in space, and is not restricted by those assumptions. This study describes how the framework can be applied to ocean flows.

Mapping the Energy Cascade in the North Atlantic Ocean: The Coarse-graining Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aluie, Hussein; Hecht, Matthew; Vallis, Geoffrey K.

A coarse-graining framework is implemented to analyze nonlinear processes, measure energy transfer rates and map out the energy pathways from simulated global ocean data. Traditional tools to measure the energy cascade from turbulence theory, such as spectral flux or spectral transfer rely on the assumption of statistical homogeneity, or at least a large separation between the scales of motion and the scales of statistical inhomogeneity. The coarse-graining framework allows for probing the fully nonlinear dynamics simultaneously in scale and in space, and is not restricted by those assumptions. This study describes how the framework can be applied to ocean flows.

Learning a Living: First Results of the Adult Literacy and Life Skills Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

OECD Publishing (NJ1), 2005

2005-01-01

The Adult Literacy and Life Skills Survey (ALL) is a large-scale co-operative effort undertaken by governments, national statistics agencies, research institutions and multi-lateral agencies. The development and management of the study were co-ordinated by Statistics Canada and the Educational Testing Service (ETS) in collaboration with the…

Detection of Test Collusion via Kullback-Leibler Divergence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belov, Dmitry I.

2013-01-01

The development of statistical methods for detecting test collusion is a new research direction in the area of test security. Test collusion may be described as large-scale sharing of test materials, including answers to test items. Current methods of detecting test collusion are based on statistics also used in answer-copying detection.…

Groups of galaxies in the Center for Astrophysics redshift survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramella, Massimo; Geller, Margaret J.; Huchra, John P.

1989-01-01

By applying the Huchra and Geller (1982) objective group identification algorithm to the Center for Astrophysics' redshift survey, a catalog of 128 groups with three or more members is extracted, and 92 of these are used as a statistical sample. A comparison of the distribution of group centers with the distribution of all galaxies in the survey indicates qualitatively that groups trace the large-scale structure of the region. The physical properties of groups may be related to the details of large-scale structure, and it is concluded that differences among group catalogs may be due to the properties of large-scale structures and their location relative to the survey limits.

Structure of small-scale magnetic fields in the kinematic dynamo theory.

PubMed

Schekochihin, Alexander; Cowley, Steven; Maron, Jason; Malyshkin, Leonid

2002-01-01

A weak fluctuating magnetic field embedded into a a turbulent conducting medium grows exponentially while its characteristic scale decays. In the interstellar medium and protogalactic plasmas, the magnetic Prandtl number is very large, so a broad spectrum of growing magnetic fluctuations is excited at small (subviscous) scales. The condition for the onset of nonlinear back reaction depends on the structure of the field lines. We study the statistical correlations that are set up in the field pattern and show that the magnetic-field lines possess a folding structure, where most of the scale decrease is due to the field variation across itself (rapid transverse direction reversals), while the scale of the field variation along itself stays approximately constant. Specifically, we find that, though both the magnetic energy and the mean-square curvature of the field lines grow exponentially, the field strength and the field-line curvature are anticorrelated, i.e., the curved field is relatively weak, while the growing field is relatively flat. The detailed analysis of the statistics of the curvature shows that it possesses a stationary limiting distribution with the bulk located at the values of curvature comparable to the characteristic wave number of the velocity field and a power tail extending to large values of curvature where it is eventually cut off by the resistive regularization. The regions of large curvature, therefore, occupy only a small fraction of the total volume of the system. Our theoretical results are corroborated by direct numerical simulations. The implication of the folding effect is that the advent of the Lorentz back reaction occurs when the magnetic energy approaches that of the smallest turbulent eddies. Our results also directly apply to the problem of statistical geometry of the material lines in a random flow.

Large-Angle Anomalies in the CMB

DOE PAGES

Copi, Craig J.; Huterer, Dragan; Schwarz, Dominik J.; ...

2010-01-01

We review the recently found large-scale anomalies in the maps of temperature anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background. These include alignments of the largest modes of CMB anisotropy with each other and with geometry and direction of motion of the solar ssystem, and the unusually low power at these largest scales. We discuss these findings in relation to expectation from standard inflationary cosmology, their statistical significance, the tools to study them, and the various attempts to explain them.

Modeling Change in Large-Scale Longitudinal Studies of Educational Growth: Four Decades of Contributions to the Assessment of Educational Growth. ETC R&D Scientific and Policy Contributions Series. ETS SPC-12-01. Research Report No. RR-12-04

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rock, Donald A.

2012-01-01

This paper provides a history of ETS's role in developing assessment instruments and psychometric procedures for measuring change in large-scale national assessments funded by the Longitudinal Studies branch of the National Center for Education Statistics. It documents the innovations developed during more than 30 years of working with…

Modeling Change in Large-Scale Longitudinal Studies of Educational Growth: Four Decades of Contributions to the Assessment of Educational Growth. Research Report. ETS RR-12-04. ETS R&D Scientific and Policy Contributions Series. ETS SPC-12-01

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rock, Donald A.

2012-01-01

This paper provides a history of ETS's role in developing assessment instruments and psychometric procedures for measuring change in large-scale national assessments funded by the Longitudinal Studies branch of the National Center for Education Statistics. It documents the innovations developed during more than 30 years of working with…

Multi-time-scale hydroclimate dynamics of a regional watershed and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation: Application to the Seine river catchment, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, N.; Dieppois, B.; Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Fossa, M.; Laignel, B.; Debret, M.

2017-03-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating correlation between large and local scales, empirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: (i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and (ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the links between large and local scales were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach, which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing monthly regional hydrometeorological processes (predictand: precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector). This approach basically consisted in three steps: 1 - decomposing large-scale climate and hydrological signals (SLP field, precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis, 2 - generating a statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3 - summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either precipitation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with alternating flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter/spring 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. In accordance with previous studies, the wavelet components detected in SLP, precipitation and streamflow on interannual to interdecadal time-scales could be interpreted in terms of influence of the Gulf-Stream oceanic front on atmospheric circulation.

Reynolds number dependence of relative dispersion statistics in isotropic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawford, Brian L.; Yeung, P. K.; Hackl, Jason F.

2008-06-01

Direct numerical simulation results for a range of relative dispersion statistics over Taylor-scale Reynolds numbers up to 650 are presented in an attempt to observe and quantify inertial subrange scaling and, in particular, Richardson's t3 law. The analysis includes the mean-square separation and a range of important but less-studied differential statistics for which the motion is defined relative to that at time t =0. It seeks to unambiguously identify and quantify the Richardson scaling by demonstrating convergence with both the Reynolds number and initial separation. According to these criteria, the standard compensated plots for these statistics in inertial subrange scaling show clear evidence of a Richardson range but with an imprecise estimate for the Richardson constant. A modified version of the cube-root plots introduced by Ott and Mann [J. Fluid Mech. 422, 207 (2000)] confirms such convergence. It has been used to yield more precise estimates for Richardson's constant g which decrease with Taylor-scale Reynolds numbers over the range of 140-650. Extrapolation to the large Reynolds number limit gives an asymptotic value for Richardson's constant in the range g =0.55-0.57, depending on the functional form used to make the extrapolation.

Scale-dependent cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry in a forced rotating turbulence experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallet, B.; Campagne, A.; Cortet, P.-P.; Moisy, F.

2014-03-01

We characterize the statistical and geometrical properties of the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry in a statistically steady forced rotating turbulence experiment. Turbulence is generated by a set of vertical flaps which continuously inject velocity fluctuations towards the center of a tank mounted on a rotating platform. We first characterize the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry from conventional single-point vorticity statistics. We propose a phenomenological model to explain the emergence of the asymmetry in the experiment, from which we predict scaling laws for the root-mean-square velocity in good agreement with the experimental data. We further quantify the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry using a set of third-order two-point velocity correlations. We focus on the correlations which are nonzero only if the cyclone-anticyclone symmetry is broken. They offer two advantages over single-point vorticity statistics: first, they are defined from velocity measurements only, so an accurate resolution of the Kolmogorov scale is not required; second, they provide information on the scale-dependence of the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry. We compute these correlation functions analytically for a random distribution of independent identical vortices. These model correlations describe well the experimental ones, indicating that the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry is dominated by the large-scale long-lived cyclones.

Statistical correlations in an ideal gas of particles obeying fractional exclusion statistics.

PubMed

Pellegrino, F M D; Angilella, G G N; March, N H; Pucci, R

2007-12-01

After a brief discussion of the concepts of fractional exchange and fractional exclusion statistics, we report partly analytical and partly numerical results on thermodynamic properties of assemblies of particles obeying fractional exclusion statistics. The effect of dimensionality is one focal point, the ratio mu/k_(B)T of chemical potential to thermal energy being obtained numerically as a function of a scaled particle density. Pair correlation functions are also presented as a function of the statistical parameter, with Friedel oscillations developing close to the fermion limit, for sufficiently large density.

The formation of cosmic structure in a texture-seeded cold dark matter cosmogony

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gooding, Andrew K.; Park, Changbom; Spergel, David N.; Turok, Neil; Gott, Richard, III

1992-01-01

The growth of density fluctuations induced by global texture in an Omega = 1 cold dark matter (CDM) cosmogony is calculated. The resulting power spectra are in good agreement with each other, with more power on large scales than in the standard inflation plus CDM model. Calculation of related statistics (two-point correlation functions, mass variances, cosmic Mach number) indicates that the texture plus CDM model compares more favorably than standard CDM with observations of large-scale structure. Texture produces coherent velocity fields on large scales, as observed. Excessive small-scale velocity dispersions, and voids less empty than those observed may be remedied by including baryonic physics. The topology of the cosmic structure agrees well with observation. The non-Gaussian texture induced density fluctuations lead to earlier nonlinear object formation than in Gaussian models and may also be more compatible with recent evidence that the galaxy density field is non-Gaussian on large scales. On smaller scales the density field is strongly non-Gaussian, but this appears to be primarily due to nonlinear gravitational clustering. The velocity field on smaller scales is surprisingly Gaussian.

Turbulence as a Problem in Non-equilibrium Statistical Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenfeld, Nigel; Shih, Hong-Yan

2017-05-01

The transitional and well-developed regimes of turbulent shear flows exhibit a variety of remarkable scaling laws that are only now beginning to be systematically studied and understood. In the first part of this article, we summarize recent progress in understanding the friction factor of turbulent flows in rough pipes and quasi-two-dimensional soap films, showing how the data obey a two-parameter scaling law known as roughness-induced criticality, and exhibit power-law scaling of friction factor with Reynolds number that depends on the precise form of the nature of the turbulent cascade. These results hint at a non-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation that applies to turbulent flows. The second part of this article concerns the lifetime statistics in smooth pipes around the transition, showing how the remarkable super-exponential scaling with Reynolds number reflects deep connections between large deviation theory, extreme value statistics, directed percolation and the onset of coexistence in predator-prey ecosystems. Both these phenomena reflect the way in which turbulence can be fruitfully approached as a problem in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics.

Downscaling of Global Climate Change Estimates to Regional Scales: An Application to Iberian Rainfall in Wintertime.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Cubasch, Ulrich

1993-06-01

A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique.The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It is shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM).The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous `2 C02' doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula, the change is 10 mm/month, with a minimum of 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ("business as usual") increase Of C02, the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different.

Understanding the k-5/3 to k-2.4 spectral break in aircraft wind data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinel, J.; Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D. J.; Tuck, A.

2010-12-01

A fundamental issue in atmospheric dynamics is to understand how the statistics of fluctuations of various fields vary with their space-time scale. The classical - and still “standard” model - dates back to Kraichnan and Charney’s work on 2-D and geostrophic (quasi 2-D) turbulence at the end of the 1960’s and early 1970’s. It postulates an isotropic 2-D turbulent regime at large scales and an isotropic 3D regime at small scales separated by a “dimensional transition” (once called a “mesoscale gap”) near the pressure scale height of ≈10 km. By the early 1980’s a quite different model emerged, the 23/9-D scaling model in which the dynamics were postulated to be dominated (over wide scale ranges) by a strongly anisotropic scale invariant cascade mechanism with structures becoming flatter and flatter at larger and larger scales in a scaling manner: the isotropy assumptions were discarded but the scaling and cascade assumptions retained. Today, thanks to the revolution in geodata and atmospheric models - both in quality and quantity - the 23/9-D model can explain the observed horizontal cascade structures in remotely sensed radiances, in meteorological “reanalyses”, in meteorological models, in high resolution drop sonde vertical analyses, of lidar vertical sections etc. All of these analyses directly contradict the standard model which predicts drastic “dimensional transitions” for scalar quantities. Indeed, until recently the only unexplained feature was a scale break in aircraft spectra of the (vector) horizontal wind somewhere between about 40 and 200 km. However - contrary to repeated claims - and thanks to a reanalysis of the historical papers - the transition that had been observed since the 1980’s was not between k^-5/3 and k^-3 but rather between k^-5/3 and k^-2.4. By 2009, the standard model was thus hanging by a thread. This was cut when careful analysis of scientific aircraft data allowed the 23/9-D model to explain the large scale k-2.4 regime as an artefact of the aircraft following a sloping trajectory: at large enough scales, the spectrum is simply dominated by vertical rather than horizontal fluctuations which have the required k^-2.4 form. Since aircraft frequently follow gently sloping isobars, this neatly explains the last obstacle to wide range anisotropic scaling models finally opening the door to an urgently needed consensus on the statistical structure of the atmosphere. However, objections remain: at large enough scales do isobaric and isoheight spectra really have different exponents? In this presentation we attempted to study this issue in more detail than before by analyzed data measured by commercial aircrafts through the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) system over CONUS during year 2009. The TAMDAR system allows us to calculate the statistical properties of the wind field on constant pressure and altitude levels. Various statistical exponents were calculated (velocity increment in terms of horizontal, vertical displacement, pressure and time) and we show here what we learned and how this analysis can help with solving this question.

A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic

PubMed Central

Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

2016-01-01

Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals. PMID:27413364

A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic.

PubMed

Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

2016-01-01

Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals.

Statistical characterization of Earth’s heterogeneities from seismic scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Wu, R.

2009-12-01

The distortion of a teleseismic wavefront carries information about the heterogeneities through which the wave propagates and it is manifestited as logarithmic amplitude (logA) and phase fluctuations of the direct P wave recorded by a seismic network. By cross correlating the fluctuations (e.g., logA-logA or phase-phase), we obtain coherence functions, which depend on spatial lags between stations and incident angles between the incident waves. We have mathematically related the depth-dependent heterogeneity spectrum to the observable coherence functions using seismic scattering theory. We will show that our method has sharp depth resolution. Using the HiNet seismic network data in Japan, we have inverted power spectra for two depth ranges, ~0-120km and below ~120km depth. The coherence functions formed by different groups of stations or by different groups of earthquakes at different back azimuths are similar. This demonstrates that the method is statistically stable and the inhomogeneities are statistically stationary. In both depth intervals, the trend of the spectral amplitude decays from large scale to small scale in a power-law fashion with exceptions at ~50km for the logA data. Due to the spatial spacing of the seismometers, only information from length scale 15km to 200km is inverted. However our scattering method provides new information on small to intermediate scales that are comparable to scales of the recycled materials and thus is complimentary to the global seismic tomography which reveals mainly large-scale heterogeneities on the order of ~1000km. The small-scale heterogeneities revealed here are not likely of pure thermal origin. Therefore, the length scale and strength of heterogeneities as a function of depth may provide important constraints in mechanical mixing of various components in the mantle convection.

A new framework to increase the efficiency of large-scale solar power plants.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alimohammadi, Shahrouz; Kleissl, Jan P.

2015-11-01

A new framework to estimate the spatio-temporal behavior of solar power is introduced, which predicts the statistical behavior of power output at utility scale Photo-Voltaic (PV) power plants. The framework is based on spatio-temporal Gaussian Processes Regression (Kriging) models, which incorporates satellite data with the UCSD version of the Weather and Research Forecasting model. This framework is designed to improve the efficiency of the large-scale solar power plants. The results are also validated from measurements of the local pyranometer sensors, and some improvements in different scenarios are observed. Solar energy.

Non-linear scaling of a musculoskeletal model of the lower limb using statistical shape models.

PubMed

Nolte, Daniel; Tsang, Chui Kit; Zhang, Kai Yu; Ding, Ziyun; Kedgley, Angela E; Bull, Anthony M J

2016-10-03

Accurate muscle geometry for musculoskeletal models is important to enable accurate subject-specific simulations. Commonly, linear scaling is used to obtain individualised muscle geometry. More advanced methods include non-linear scaling using segmented bone surfaces and manual or semi-automatic digitisation of muscle paths from medical images. In this study, a new scaling method combining non-linear scaling with reconstructions of bone surfaces using statistical shape modelling is presented. Statistical Shape Models (SSMs) of femur and tibia/fibula were used to reconstruct bone surfaces of nine subjects. Reference models were created by morphing manually digitised muscle paths to mean shapes of the SSMs using non-linear transformations and inter-subject variability was calculated. Subject-specific models of muscle attachment and via points were created from three reference models. The accuracy was evaluated by calculating the differences between the scaled and manually digitised models. The points defining the muscle paths showed large inter-subject variability at the thigh and shank - up to 26mm; this was found to limit the accuracy of all studied scaling methods. Errors for the subject-specific muscle point reconstructions of the thigh could be decreased by 9% to 20% by using the non-linear scaling compared to a typical linear scaling method. We conclude that the proposed non-linear scaling method is more accurate than linear scaling methods. Thus, when combined with the ability to reconstruct bone surfaces from incomplete or scattered geometry data using statistical shape models our proposed method is an alternative to linear scaling methods. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

New probes of Cosmic Microwave Background large-scale anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiola, Simone

Fifty years of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data played a crucial role in constraining the parameters of the LambdaCDM model, where Dark Energy, Dark Matter, and Inflation are the three most important pillars not yet understood. Inflation prescribes an isotropic universe on large scales, and it generates spatially-correlated density fluctuations over the whole Hubble volume. CMB temperature fluctuations on scales bigger than a degree in the sky, affected by modes on super-horizon scale at the time of recombination, are a clean snapshot of the universe after inflation. In addition, the accelerated expansion of the universe, driven by Dark Energy, leaves a hardly detectable imprint in the large-scale temperature sky at late times. Such fundamental predictions have been tested with current CMB data and found to be in tension with what we expect from our simple LambdaCDM model. Is this tension just a random fluke or a fundamental issue with the present model? In this thesis, we present a new framework to probe the lack of large-scale correlations in the temperature sky using CMB polarization data. Our analysis shows that if a suppression in the CMB polarization correlations is detected, it will provide compelling evidence for new physics on super-horizon scale. To further analyze the statistical properties of the CMB temperature sky, we constrain the degree of statistical anisotropy of the CMB in the context of the observed large-scale dipole power asymmetry. We find evidence for a scale-dependent dipolar modulation at 2.5sigma. To isolate late-time signals from the primordial ones, we test the anomalously high Integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect signal generated by superstructures in the universe. We find that the detected signal is in tension with the expectations from LambdaCDM at the 2.5sigma level, which is somewhat smaller than what has been previously argued. To conclude, we describe the current status of CMB observations on small scales, highlighting the tensions between Planck, WMAP, and SPT temperature data and how the upcoming data release of the ACTpol experiment will contribute to this matter. We provide a description of the current status of the data-analysis pipeline and discuss its ability to recover large-scale modes.

MHD Modeling of the Solar Wind with Turbulence Transport and Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, M. L.; Usmanov, A. V.; Matthaeus, W. H.; Breech, B.

2009-01-01

We have developed a magnetohydrodynamic model that describes the global axisymmetric steady-state structure of the solar wind near solar minimum with account for transport of small-scale turbulence associated heating. The Reynolds-averaged mass, momentum, induction, and energy equations for the large-scale solar wind flow are solved simultaneously with the turbulence transport equations in the region from 0.3 to 100 AU. The large-scale equations include subgrid-scale terms due to turbulence and the turbulence (small-scale) equations describe the effects of transport and (phenomenologically) dissipation of the MHD turbulence based on a few statistical parameters (turbulence energy, normalized cross-helicity, and correlation scale). The coupled set of equations is integrated numerically for a source dipole field on the Sun by a time-relaxation method in the corotating frame of reference. We present results on the plasma, magnetic field, and turbulence distributions throughout the heliosphere and on the role of the turbulence in the large-scale structure and temperature distribution in the solar wind.

A Large-Scale Analysis of Variance in Written Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johns, Brendan T.; Jamieson, Randall K.

2018-01-01

The collection of very large text sources has revolutionized the study of natural language, leading to the development of several models of language learning and distributional semantics that extract sophisticated semantic representations of words based on the statistical redundancies contained within natural language (e.g., Griffiths, Steyvers,…

The Weird Side of the Universe: Preferred Axis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wen; Santos, Larissa

In both WMAP and Planck observations on the temperature anisotropy of cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation a number of large-scale anomalies were discovered in the past years, including the CMB parity asymmetry in the low multipoles. By defining a directional statistics, we find that the CMB parity asymmetry is directional dependent, and the preferred axis is stable, which means that it is independent of the chosen CMB map, the definition of the statistic, or the CMB masks. Meanwhile, we find that this preferred axis strongly aligns with those of the CMB quadrupole, octopole, as well as those of other large-scale observations. In addition, all of them aligns with the CMB kinematic dipole, which hints to the non-cosmological origin of these directional anomalies in cosmological observations.

Cosmic homogeneity: a spectroscopic and model-independent measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, R. S.; Carvalho, G. C.; Bengaly, C. A. P., Jr.; Carvalho, J. C.; Bernui, A.; Alcaniz, J. S.; Maartens, R.

2018-03-01

Cosmology relies on the Cosmological Principle, i.e. the hypothesis that the Universe is homogeneous and isotropic on large scales. This implies in particular that the counts of galaxies should approach a homogeneous scaling with volume at sufficiently large scales. Testing homogeneity is crucial to obtain a correct interpretation of the physical assumptions underlying the current cosmic acceleration and structure formation of the Universe. In this letter, we use the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey to make the first spectroscopic and model-independent measurements of the angular homogeneity scale θh. Applying four statistical estimators, we show that the angular distribution of galaxies in the range 0.46 < z < 0.62 is consistent with homogeneity at large scales, and that θh varies with redshift, indicating a smoother Universe in the past. These results are in agreement with the foundations of the standard cosmological paradigm.

Intensive agriculture erodes β-diversity at large scales.

PubMed

Karp, Daniel S; Rominger, Andrew J; Zook, Jim; Ranganathan, Jai; Ehrlich, Paul R; Daily, Gretchen C

2012-09-01

Biodiversity is declining from unprecedented land conversions that replace diverse, low-intensity agriculture with vast expanses under homogeneous, intensive production. Despite documented losses of species richness, consequences for β-diversity, changes in community composition between sites, are largely unknown, especially in the tropics. Using a 10-year data set on Costa Rican birds, we find that low-intensity agriculture sustained β-diversity across large scales on a par with forest. In high-intensity agriculture, low local (α) diversity inflated β-diversity as a statistical artefact. Therefore, at small spatial scales, intensive agriculture appeared to retain β-diversity. Unlike in forest or low-intensity systems, however, high-intensity agriculture also homogenised vegetation structure over large distances, thereby decoupling the fundamental ecological pattern of bird communities changing with geographical distance. This ~40% decline in species turnover indicates a significant decline in β-diversity at large spatial scales. These findings point the way towards multi-functional agricultural systems that maintain agricultural productivity while simultaneously conserving biodiversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Meta-analysis of prediction model performance across multiple studies: Which scale helps ensure between-study normality for the C-statistic and calibration measures?

PubMed

Snell, Kym Ie; Ensor, Joie; Debray, Thomas Pa; Moons, Karel Gm; Riley, Richard D

2017-01-01

If individual participant data are available from multiple studies or clusters, then a prediction model can be externally validated multiple times. This allows the model's discrimination and calibration performance to be examined across different settings. Random-effects meta-analysis can then be used to quantify overall (average) performance and heterogeneity in performance. This typically assumes a normal distribution of 'true' performance across studies. We conducted a simulation study to examine this normality assumption for various performance measures relating to a logistic regression prediction model. We simulated data across multiple studies with varying degrees of variability in baseline risk or predictor effects and then evaluated the shape of the between-study distribution in the C-statistic, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and E/O statistic, and possible transformations thereof. We found that a normal between-study distribution was usually reasonable for the calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large; however, the distributions of the C-statistic and E/O were often skewed across studies, particularly in settings with large variability in the predictor effects. Normality was vastly improved when using the logit transformation for the C-statistic and the log transformation for E/O, and therefore we recommend these scales to be used for meta-analysis. An illustrated example is given using a random-effects meta-analysis of the performance of QRISK2 across 25 general practices.

Turbulent statistics and intermittency enhancement in coflowing superfluid 4He

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biferale, L.; Khomenko, D.; L'vov, V.; Pomyalov, A.; Procaccia, I.; Sahoo, G.

2018-02-01

The large-scale turbulent statistics of mechanically driven superfluid 4He was shown experimentally to follow the classical counterpart. In this paper, we use direct numerical simulations to study the whole range of scales in a range of temperatures T ∈[1.3 ,2.1 ] K. The numerics employ self-consistent and nonlinearly coupled normal and superfluid components. The main results are that (i) the velocity fluctuations of normal and super components are well correlated in the inertial range of scales, but decorrelate at small scales. (ii) The energy transfer by mutual friction between components is particulary efficient in the temperature range between 1.8 and 2 K, leading to enhancement of small-scale intermittency for these temperatures. (iii) At low T and close to Tλ, the scaling properties of the energy spectra and structure functions of the two components are approaching those of classical hydrodynamic turbulence.

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Simulating statistics of lightning-induced and man made fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krenn, R.; Hergarten, S.

2009-04-01

The frequency-area distributions of forest fires show power-law behavior with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organized criticality. Examples of self-organized critical behavior can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automata. The established self-organized critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model (DS-FFM) is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the DS-FFM apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a straightforward modification of the model rules that increases the scaling exponent α by approximately 1•3 and brings the simulated event-size statistics close to those observed in nature. In addition, combined simulations of both the original and the modified model predict a dependence of the overall distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a difference between their respective event-size statistics. The increase of the scaling exponent with decreasing lightning probability as well as the splitting of the partial distributions are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database. As a consequence, lightning induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modeling, hazard assessment and forest management.

Validating the simulation of large-scale parallel applications using statistical characteristics

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Deli; Wilke, Jeremiah; Hendry, Gilbert; ...

2016-03-01

Simulation is a widely adopted method to analyze and predict the performance of large-scale parallel applications. Validating the hardware model is highly important for complex simulations with a large number of parameters. Common practice involves calculating the percent error between the projected and the real execution time of a benchmark program. However, in a high-dimensional parameter space, this coarse-grained approach often suffers from parameter insensitivity, which may not be known a priori. Moreover, the traditional approach cannot be applied to the validation of software models, such as application skeletons used in online simulations. In this work, we present a methodologymore » and a toolset for validating both hardware and software models by quantitatively comparing fine-grained statistical characteristics obtained from execution traces. Although statistical information has been used in tasks like performance optimization, this is the first attempt to apply it to simulation validation. Lastly, our experimental results show that the proposed evaluation approach offers significant improvement in fidelity when compared to evaluation using total execution time, and the proposed metrics serve as reliable criteria that progress toward automating the simulation tuning process.« less

An empirical evaluation of genetic distance statistics using microsatellite data from bear (Ursidae) populations.

PubMed

Paetkau, D; Waits, L P; Clarkson, P L; Craighead, L; Strobeck, C

1997-12-01

A large microsatellite data set from three species of bear (Ursidae) was used to empirically test the performance of six genetic distance measures in resolving relationships at a variety of scales ranging from adjacent areas in a continuous distribution to species that diverged several million years ago. At the finest scale, while some distance measures performed extremely well, statistics developed specifically to accommodate the mutational processes of microsatellites performed relatively poorly, presumably because of the relatively higher variance of these statistics. At the other extreme, no statistic was able to resolve the close sister relationship of polar bears and brown bears from more distantly related pairs of species. This failure is most likely due to constraints on allele distributions at microsatellite loci. At intermediate scales, both within continuous distributions and in comparisons to insular populations of late Pleistocene origin, it was not possible to define the point where linearity was lost for each of the statistics, except that it is clearly lost after relatively short periods of independent evolution. All of the statistics were affected by the amount of genetic diversity within the populations being compared, significantly complicating the interpretation of genetic distance data.

An Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Distance Statistics Using Microsatellite Data from Bear (Ursidae) Populations

PubMed Central

Paetkau, D.; Waits, L. P.; Clarkson, P. L.; Craighead, L.; Strobeck, C.

1997-01-01

A large microsatellite data set from three species of bear (Ursidae) was used to empirically test the performance of six genetic distance measures in resolving relationships at a variety of scales ranging from adjacent areas in a continuous distribution to species that diverged several million years ago. At the finest scale, while some distance measures performed extremely well, statistics developed specifically to accommodate the mutational processes of microsatellites performed relatively poorly, presumably because of the relatively higher variance of these statistics. At the other extreme, no statistic was able to resolve the close sister relationship of polar bears and brown bears from more distantly related pairs of species. This failure is most likely due to constraints on allele distributions at microsatellite loci. At intermediate scales, both within continuous distributions and in comparisons to insular populations of late Pleistocene origin, it was not possible to define the point where linearity was lost for each of the statistics, except that it is clearly lost after relatively short periods of independent evolution. All of the statistics were affected by the amount of genetic diversity within the populations being compared, significantly complicating the interpretation of genetic distance data. PMID:9409849

Reynolds number trend of hierarchies and scale interactions in turbulent boundary layers.

PubMed

Baars, W J; Hutchins, N; Marusic, I

2017-03-13

Small-scale velocity fluctuations in turbulent boundary layers are often coupled with the larger-scale motions. Studying the nature and extent of this scale interaction allows for a statistically representative description of the small scales over a time scale of the larger, coherent scales. In this study, we consider temporal data from hot-wire anemometry at Reynolds numbers ranging from Re τ ≈2800 to 22 800, in order to reveal how the scale interaction varies with Reynolds number. Large-scale conditional views of the representative amplitude and frequency of the small-scale turbulence, relative to the large-scale features, complement the existing consensus on large-scale modulation of the small-scale dynamics in the near-wall region. Modulation is a type of scale interaction, where the amplitude of the small-scale fluctuations is continuously proportional to the near-wall footprint of the large-scale velocity fluctuations. Aside from this amplitude modulation phenomenon, we reveal the influence of the large-scale motions on the characteristic frequency of the small scales, known as frequency modulation. From the wall-normal trends in the conditional averages of the small-scale properties, it is revealed how the near-wall modulation transitions to an intermittent-type scale arrangement in the log-region. On average, the amplitude of the small-scale velocity fluctuations only deviates from its mean value in a confined temporal domain, the duration of which is fixed in terms of the local Taylor time scale. These concentrated temporal regions are centred on the internal shear layers of the large-scale uniform momentum zones, which exhibit regions of positive and negative streamwise velocity fluctuations. With an increasing scale separation at high Reynolds numbers, this interaction pattern encompasses the features found in studies on internal shear layers and concentrated vorticity fluctuations in high-Reynolds-number wall turbulence.This article is part of the themed issue 'Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Descriptive Statistics for Modern Test Score Distributions: Skewness, Kurtosis, Discreteness, and Ceiling Effects.

PubMed

Ho, Andrew D; Yu, Carol C

2015-06-01

Many statistical analyses benefit from the assumption that unconditional or conditional distributions are continuous and normal. More than 50 years ago in this journal, Lord and Cook chronicled departures from normality in educational tests, and Micerri similarly showed that the normality assumption is met rarely in educational and psychological practice. In this article, the authors extend these previous analyses to state-level educational test score distributions that are an increasingly common target of high-stakes analysis and interpretation. Among 504 scale-score and raw-score distributions from state testing programs from recent years, nonnormal distributions are common and are often associated with particular state programs. The authors explain how scaling procedures from item response theory lead to nonnormal distributions as well as unusual patterns of discreteness. The authors recommend that distributional descriptive statistics be calculated routinely to inform model selection for large-scale test score data, and they illustrate consequences of nonnormality using sensitivity studies that compare baseline results to those from normalized score scales.

Statistical analysis of Hasegawa-Wakatani turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Johan; Hnat, Bogdan

2017-06-01

Resistive drift wave turbulence is a multipurpose paradigm that can be used to understand transport at the edge of fusion devices. The Hasegawa-Wakatani model captures the essential physics of drift turbulence while retaining the simplicity needed to gain a qualitative understanding of this process. We provide a theoretical interpretation of numerically generated probability density functions (PDFs) of intermittent events in Hasegawa-Wakatani turbulence with enforced equipartition of energy in large scale zonal flows, and small scale drift turbulence. We find that for a wide range of adiabatic index values, the stochastic component representing the small scale turbulent eddies of the flow, obtained from the autoregressive integrated moving average model, exhibits super-diffusive statistics, consistent with intermittent transport. The PDFs of large events (above one standard deviation) are well approximated by the Laplace distribution, while small events often exhibit a Gaussian character. Furthermore, there exists a strong influence of zonal flows, for example, via shearing and then viscous dissipation maintaining a sub-diffusive character of the fluxes.

Turbulent Channel Flow Measurements with a Nano-scale Thermal Anemometry Probe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, Sean; Witte, Brandon

2014-11-01

Using a Nano-scale Thermal Anemometry Probe (NSTAP), streamwise velocity was measured in a turbulent channel flow wind tunnel at Reynolds numbers ranging from Reτ = 500 to Reτ = 4000 . Use of these probes results in the a sensing-length-to-viscous-length-scale ratio of just 5 at the highest Reynolds number measured. Thus measured results can be considered free of spatial filtering effects. Point statistics are compared to recently published DNS and LDV data at similar Reynolds numbers and the results are found to be in good agreement. However, comparison of the measured spectra provide further evidence of aliasing at long wavelengths due to application of Taylor's frozen flow hypothesis, with increased aliasing evident with increasing Reynolds numbers. In addition to conventional point statistics, the dissipative scales of turbulence are investigated with focus on the wall-dependent scaling. Results support the existence of a universal pdf distribution of these scales once scaled to account for large-scale anisotropy. This research is supported by KSEF Award KSEF-2685-RDE-015.

Effect of shock waves on the statistics and scaling in compressible isotropic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianchun; Wan, Minping; Chen, Song; Xie, Chenyue; Chen, Shiyi

2018-04-01

The statistics and scaling of compressible isotropic turbulence in the presence of large-scale shock waves are investigated by using numerical simulations at turbulent Mach number Mt ranging from 0.30 to 0.65. The spectra of the compressible velocity component, density, pressure, and temperature exhibit a k-2 scaling at different turbulent Mach numbers. The scaling exponents for structure functions of the compressible velocity component and thermodynamic variables are close to 1 at high orders n ≥3 . The probability density functions of increments of the compressible velocity component and thermodynamic variables exhibit a power-law region with the exponent -2 . Models for the conditional average of increments of the compressible velocity component and thermodynamic variables are developed based on the ideal shock relations and are verified by numerical simulations. The overall statistics of the compressible velocity component and thermodynamic variables are similar to one another at different turbulent Mach numbers. It is shown that the effect of shock waves on the compressible velocity spectrum and kinetic energy transfer is different from that of acoustic waves.

Statistical Analysis of Large Scale Structure by the Discrete Wavelet Transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pando, Jesus

1997-10-01

The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is developed as a general statistical tool for the study of large scale structures (LSS) in astrophysics. The DWT is used in all aspects of structure identification including cluster analysis, spectrum and two-point correlation studies, scale-scale correlation analysis and to measure deviations from Gaussian behavior. The techniques developed are demonstrated on 'academic' signals, on simulated models of the Lymanα (Lyα) forests, and on observational data of the Lyα forests. This technique can detect clustering in the Ly-α clouds where traditional techniques such as the two-point correlation function have failed. The position and strength of these clusters in both real and simulated data is determined and it is shown that clusters exist on scales as large as at least 20 h-1 Mpc at significance levels of 2-4 σ. Furthermore, it is found that the strength distribution of the clusters can be used to distinguish between real data and simulated samples even where other traditional methods have failed to detect differences. Second, a method for measuring the power spectrum of a density field using the DWT is developed. All common features determined by the usual Fourier power spectrum can be calculated by the DWT. These features, such as the index of a power law or typical scales, can be detected even when the samples are geometrically complex, the samples are incomplete, or the mean density on larger scales is not known (the infrared uncertainty). Using this method the spectra of Ly-α forests in both simulated and real samples is calculated. Third, a method for measuring hierarchical clustering is introduced. Because hierarchical evolution is characterized by a set of rules of how larger dark matter halos are formed by the merging of smaller halos, scale-scale correlations of the density field should be one of the most sensitive quantities in determining the merging history. We show that these correlations can be completely determined by the correlations between discrete wavelet coefficients on adjacent scales and at nearly the same spatial position, Cj,j+12/cdot2. Scale-scale correlations on two samples of the QSO Ly-α forests absorption spectra are computed. Lastly, higher order statistics are developed to detect deviations from Gaussian behavior. These higher order statistics are necessary to fully characterize the Ly-α forests because the usual 2nd order statistics, such as the two-point correlation function or power spectrum, give inconclusive results. It is shown how this technique takes advantage of the locality of the DWT to circumvent the central limit theorem. A non-Gaussian spectrum is defined and this spectrum reveals not only the magnitude, but the scales of non-Gaussianity. When applied to simulated and observational samples of the Ly-α clouds, it is found that different popular models of structure formation have different spectra while two, independent observational data sets, have the same spectra. Moreover, the non-Gaussian spectra of real data sets are significantly different from the spectra of various possible random samples. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

DOE PAGES

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; ...

2015-05-22

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.« less

Statistical Model to Analyze Quantitative Proteomics Data Obtained by 18O/16O Labeling and Linear Ion Trap Mass Spectrometry

PubMed Central

Jorge, Inmaculada; Navarro, Pedro; Martínez-Acedo, Pablo; Núñez, Estefanía; Serrano, Horacio; Alfranca, Arántzazu; Redondo, Juan Miguel; Vázquez, Jesús

2009-01-01

Statistical models for the analysis of protein expression changes by stable isotope labeling are still poorly developed, particularly for data obtained by 16O/18O labeling. Besides large scale test experiments to validate the null hypothesis are lacking. Although the study of mechanisms underlying biological actions promoted by vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) on endothelial cells is of considerable interest, quantitative proteomics studies on this subject are scarce and have been performed after exposing cells to the factor for long periods of time. In this work we present the largest quantitative proteomics study to date on the short term effects of VEGF on human umbilical vein endothelial cells by 18O/16O labeling. Current statistical models based on normality and variance homogeneity were found unsuitable to describe the null hypothesis in a large scale test experiment performed on these cells, producing false expression changes. A random effects model was developed including four different sources of variance at the spectrum-fitting, scan, peptide, and protein levels. With the new model the number of outliers at scan and peptide levels was negligible in three large scale experiments, and only one false protein expression change was observed in the test experiment among more than 1000 proteins. The new model allowed the detection of significant protein expression changes upon VEGF stimulation for 4 and 8 h. The consistency of the changes observed at 4 h was confirmed by a replica at a smaller scale and further validated by Western blot analysis of some proteins. Most of the observed changes have not been described previously and are consistent with a pattern of protein expression that dynamically changes over time following the evolution of the angiogenic response. With this statistical model the 18O labeling approach emerges as a very promising and robust alternative to perform quantitative proteomics studies at a depth of several thousand proteins. PMID:19181660

A Powerful Approach to Estimating Annotation-Stratified Genetic Covariance via GWAS Summary Statistics.

PubMed

Lu, Qiongshi; Li, Boyang; Ou, Derek; Erlendsdottir, Margret; Powles, Ryan L; Jiang, Tony; Hu, Yiming; Chang, David; Jin, Chentian; Dai, Wei; He, Qidu; Liu, Zefeng; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Crane, Paul K; Zhao, Hongyu

2017-12-07

Despite the success of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on complex traits, our understanding of their genetic architecture is far from complete. Jointly modeling multiple traits' genetic profiles has provided insights into the shared genetic basis of many complex traits. However, large-scale inference sets a high bar for both statistical power and biological interpretability. Here we introduce a principled framework to estimate annotation-stratified genetic covariance between traits using GWAS summary statistics. Through theoretical and numerical analyses, we demonstrate that our method provides accurate covariance estimates, thereby enabling researchers to dissect both the shared and distinct genetic architecture across traits to better understand their etiologies. Among 50 complex traits with publicly accessible GWAS summary statistics (N total ≈ 4.5 million), we identified more than 170 pairs with statistically significant genetic covariance. In particular, we found strong genetic covariance between late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), two major neurodegenerative diseases, in single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with high minor allele frequencies and in SNPs located in the predicted functional genome. Joint analysis of LOAD, ALS, and other traits highlights LOAD's correlation with cognitive traits and hints at an autoimmune component for ALS. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modified Distribution-Free Goodness-of-Fit Test Statistic.

PubMed

Chun, So Yeon; Browne, Michael W; Shapiro, Alexander

2018-03-01

Covariance structure analysis and its structural equation modeling extensions have become one of the most widely used methodologies in social sciences such as psychology, education, and economics. An important issue in such analysis is to assess the goodness of fit of a model under analysis. One of the most popular test statistics used in covariance structure analysis is the asymptotically distribution-free (ADF) test statistic introduced by Browne (Br J Math Stat Psychol 37:62-83, 1984). The ADF statistic can be used to test models without any specific distribution assumption (e.g., multivariate normal distribution) of the observed data. Despite its advantage, it has been shown in various empirical studies that unless sample sizes are extremely large, this ADF statistic could perform very poorly in practice. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon and further propose a modified test statistic that improves the performance in samples of realistic size. The proposed statistic deals with the possible ill-conditioning of the involved large-scale covariance matrices.

Statistical analysis of the time and space characteristic scales for large precipitating systems in the equatorial, tropical, sahelian and mid-latitude regions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duroure, Christophe; Sy, Abdoulaye; Baray, Jean luc; Van baelen, Joel; Diop, Bouya

2017-04-01

Precipitation plays a key role in the management of sustainable water resources and flood risk analyses. Changes in rainfall will be a critical factor determining the overall impact of climate change. We propose to analyse long series (10 years) of daily precipitation at different regions. We present the Fourier densities energy spectra and morphological spectra (i.e. probability repartition functions of the duration and the horizontal scale) of large precipitating systems. Satellite data from the Global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) and local pluviometers long time series in Senegal and France are used and compared in this work. For mid-latitude and Sahelian regions (North of 12°N), the morphological spectra are close to exponential decreasing distribution. This fact allows to define two characteristic scales (duration and space extension) for the precipitating region embedded into the large meso-scale convective system (MCS). For tropical and equatorial regions (South of 12°N) the morphological spectra are close to a Levy-stable distribution (power law decrease) which does not allow to define a characteristic scale (scaling range). When the time and space characteristic scales are defined, a "statistical velocity" of precipitating MCS can be defined, and compared to observed zonal advection. Maps of the characteristic scales and Levy-stable exponent over West Africa and south Europe are presented. The 12° latitude transition between exponential and Levy-stable behaviors of precipitating MCS is compared with the result of ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis for the same period. This morphological sharp transition could be used to test the different parameterizations of deep convection in forecast models.

Self-organization of cosmic radiation pressure instability. II - One-dimensional simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hogan, Craig J.; Woods, Jorden

1992-01-01

The clustering of statistically uniform discrete absorbing particles moving solely under the influence of radiation pressure from uniformly distributed emitters is studied in a simple one-dimensional model. Radiation pressure tends to amplify statistical clustering in the absorbers; the absorbing material is swept into empty bubbles, the biggest bubbles grow bigger almost as they would in a uniform medium, and the smaller ones get crushed and disappear. Numerical simulations of a one-dimensional system are used to support the conjecture that the system is self-organizing. Simple statistics indicate that a wide range of initial conditions produce structure approaching the same self-similar statistical distribution, whose scaling properties follow those of the attractor solution for an isolated bubble. The importance of the process for large-scale structuring of the interstellar medium is briefly discussed.

Large-area forest inventory regression modeling: spatial scale considerations

Treesearch

James A. Westfall

2015-01-01

In many forest inventories, statistical models are employed to predict values for attributes that are difficult and/or time-consuming to measure. In some applications, models are applied across a large geographic area, which assumes the relationship between the response variable and predictors is ubiquitously invariable within the area. The extent to which this...

Probing features in the primordial perturbation spectrum with large-scale structure data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

L'Huillier, Benjamin; Shafieloo, Arman; Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar; Smoot, George F.; Starobinsky, Alexei A.

2018-06-01

The form of the primordial power spectrum (PPS) of cosmological scalar (matter density) perturbations is not yet constrained satisfactorily in spite of the tremendous amount of information from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data. While a smooth power-law-like form of the PPS is consistent with the CMB data, some PPSs with small non-smooth features at large scales can also fit the CMB temperature and polarization data with similar statistical evidence. Future CMB surveys cannot help distinguish all such models due to the cosmic variance at large angular scales. In this paper, we study how well we can differentiate between such featured forms of the PPS not otherwise distinguishable using CMB data. We ran 15 N-body DESI-like simulations of these models to explore this approach. Showing that statistics such as the halo mass function and the two-point correlation function are not able to distinguish these models in a DESI-like survey, we advocate to avoid reducing the dimensionality of the problem by demonstrating that the use of a simple three-dimensional count-in-cell density field can be much more effective for the purpose of model distinction.

Will COBE challenge the inflationary paradigm - Cosmic microwave background anisotropies versus large-scale streaming motions revisited

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorski, K.M.

1991-03-01

The relation between cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies and large-scale galaxy streaming motions is examined within the framework of inflationary cosmology. The minimal Sachs and Wolfe (1967) CMB anisotropies at large angular scales in the models with initial Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum of inhomogeneity normalized to the local large-scale bulk flow, which are independent of the Hubble constant and specific nature of dark matter, are found to be within the anticipated ultimate sensitivity limits of COBE's Differential Microwave Radiometer experiment. For example, the most likely value of the quadrupole coefficient is predicted to be a2 not less than 7 x 10 tomore » the -6th, where equality applies to the limiting minimal model. If (1) COBE's DMR instruments perform well throughout the two-year period; (2) the anisotropy data are not marred by the systematic errors; (3) the large-scale motions retain their present observational status; (4) there is no statistical conspiracy in a sense of the measured bulk flow being of untypically high and the large-scale anisotropy of untypically low amplitudes; and (5) the low-order multipoles in the all-sky primordial fireball temperature map are not detected, the inflationary paradigm will have to be questioned. 19 refs.« less

Estimation of Global Network Statistics from Incomplete Data

PubMed Central

Bliss, Catherine A.; Danforth, Christopher M.; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

2014-01-01

Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week. PMID:25338183

Interactive Profiler: An Intuitive, Web-Based Statistical Application in Visualizing Educational and Marketing Databases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ip, Edward H.; Leung, Phillip; Johnson, Joseph

2004-01-01

We describe the design and implementation of a web-based statistical program--the Interactive Profiler (IP). The prototypical program, developed in Java, was motivated by the need for the general public to query against data collected from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), a large-scale US survey of the academic state of…

Magnetic Helicity and Planetary Dynamos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shebalin, John V.

2012-01-01

A model planetary dynamo based on the Boussinesq approximation along with homogeneous boundary conditions is considered. A statistical theory describing a large-scale MHD dynamo is found, in which magnetic helicity is the critical parameter

Beyond δ: Tailoring marked statistics to reveal modified gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valogiannis, Georgios; Bean, Rachel

2018-01-01

Models which attempt to explain the accelerated expansion of the universe through large-scale modifications to General Relativity (GR), must satisfy the stringent experimental constraints of GR in the solar system. Viable candidates invoke a “screening” mechanism, that dynamically suppresses deviations in high density environments, making their overall detection challenging even for ambitious future large-scale structure surveys. We present methods to efficiently simulate the non-linear properties of such theories, and consider how a series of statistics that reweight the density field to accentuate deviations from GR can be applied to enhance the overall signal-to-noise ratio in differentiating the models from GR. Our results demonstrate that the cosmic density field can yield additional, invaluable cosmological information, beyond the simple density power spectrum, that will enable surveys to more confidently discriminate between modified gravity models and ΛCDM.

The effects of neuron morphology on graph theoretic measures of network connectivity: the analysis of a two-level statistical model.

PubMed

Aćimović, Jugoslava; Mäki-Marttunen, Tuomo; Linne, Marja-Leena

2015-01-01

We developed a two-level statistical model that addresses the question of how properties of neurite morphology shape the large-scale network connectivity. We adopted a low-dimensional statistical description of neurites. From the neurite model description we derived the expected number of synapses, node degree, and the effective radius, the maximal distance between two neurons expected to form at least one synapse. We related these quantities to the network connectivity described using standard measures from graph theory, such as motif counts, clustering coefficient, minimal path length, and small-world coefficient. These measures are used in a neuroscience context to study phenomena from synaptic connectivity in the small neuronal networks to large scale functional connectivity in the cortex. For these measures we provide analytical solutions that clearly relate different model properties. Neurites that sparsely cover space lead to a small effective radius. If the effective radius is small compared to the overall neuron size the obtained networks share similarities with the uniform random networks as each neuron connects to a small number of distant neurons. Large neurites with densely packed branches lead to a large effective radius. If this effective radius is large compared to the neuron size, the obtained networks have many local connections. In between these extremes, the networks maximize the variability of connection repertoires. The presented approach connects the properties of neuron morphology with large scale network properties without requiring heavy simulations with many model parameters. The two-steps procedure provides an easier interpretation of the role of each modeled parameter. The model is flexible and each of its components can be further expanded. We identified a range of model parameters that maximizes variability in network connectivity, the property that might affect network capacity to exhibit different dynamical regimes.

Inflationary tensor fossils in large-scale structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimastrogiovanni, Emanuela; Fasiello, Matteo; Jeong, Donghui

Inflation models make specific predictions for a tensor-scalar-scalar three-point correlation, or bispectrum, between one gravitational-wave (tensor) mode and two density-perturbation (scalar) modes. This tensor-scalar-scalar correlation leads to a local power quadrupole, an apparent departure from statistical isotropy in our Universe, as well as characteristic four-point correlations in the current mass distribution in the Universe. So far, the predictions for these observables have been worked out only for single-clock models in which certain consistency conditions between the tensor-scalar-scalar correlation and tensor and scalar power spectra are satisfied. Here we review the requirements on inflation models for these consistency conditions to bemore » satisfied. We then consider several examples of inflation models, such as non-attractor and solid-inflation models, in which these conditions are put to the test. In solid inflation the simplest consistency conditions are already violated whilst in the non-attractor model we find that, contrary to the standard scenario, the tensor-scalar-scalar correlator probes directly relevant model-dependent information. We work out the predictions for observables in these models. For non-attractor inflation we find an apparent local quadrupolar departure from statistical isotropy in large-scale structure but that this power quadrupole decreases very rapidly at smaller scales. The consistency of the CMB quadrupole with statistical isotropy then constrains the distance scale that corresponds to the transition from the non-attractor to attractor phase of inflation to be larger than the currently observable horizon. Solid inflation predicts clustering fossils signatures in the current galaxy distribution that may be large enough to be detectable with forthcoming, and possibly even current, galaxy surveys.« less

Contribution of large scale coherence to wind turbine power: A large eddy simulation study in periodic wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Tanmoy; Peet, Yulia T.

2018-03-01

Length scales of eddies involved in the power generation of infinite wind farms are studied by analyzing the spectra of the turbulent flux of mean kinetic energy (MKE) from large eddy simulations (LES). Large-scale structures with an order of magnitude bigger than the turbine rotor diameter (D ) are shown to have substantial contribution to wind power. Varying dynamics in the intermediate scales (D -10 D ) are also observed from a parametric study involving interturbine distances and hub height of the turbines. Further insight about the eddies responsible for the power generation have been provided from the scaling analysis of two-dimensional premultiplied spectra of MKE flux. The LES code is developed in a high Reynolds number near-wall modeling framework, using an open-source spectral element code Nek5000, and the wind turbines have been modelled using a state-of-the-art actuator line model. The LES of infinite wind farms have been validated against the statistical results from the previous literature. The study is expected to improve our understanding of the complex multiscale dynamics in the domain of large wind farms and identify the length scales that contribute to the power. This information can be useful for design of wind farm layout and turbine placement that take advantage of the large-scale structures contributing to wind turbine power.

Self-sustaining processes at all scales in wall-bounded turbulent shear flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cossu, Carlo; Hwang, Yongyun

2017-03-01

We collect and discuss the results of our recent studies which show evidence of the existence of a whole family of self-sustaining motions in wall-bounded turbulent shear flows with scales ranging from those of buffer-layer streaks to those of large-scale and very-large-scale motions in the outer layer. The statistical and dynamical features of this family of self-sustaining motions, which are associated with streaks and quasi-streamwise vortices, are consistent with those of Townsend's attached eddies. Motions at each relevant scale are able to sustain themselves in the absence of forcing from larger- or smaller-scale motions by extracting energy from the mean flow via a coherent lift-up effect. The coherent self-sustaining process is embedded in a set of invariant solutions of the filtered Navier-Stokes equations which take into full account the Reynolds stresses associated with the residual smaller-scale motions.

Statistical Models for the Analysis of Zero-Inflated Pain Intensity Numeric Rating Scale Data.

PubMed

Goulet, Joseph L; Buta, Eugenia; Bathulapalli, Harini; Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Brandt, Cynthia A

2017-03-01

Pain intensity is often measured in clinical and research settings using the 0 to 10 numeric rating scale (NRS). NRS scores are recorded as discrete values, and in some samples they may display a high proportion of zeroes and a right-skewed distribution. Despite this, statistical methods for normally distributed data are frequently used in the analysis of NRS data. We present results from an observational cross-sectional study examining the association of NRS scores with patient characteristics using data collected from a large cohort of 18,935 veterans in Department of Veterans Affairs care diagnosed with a potentially painful musculoskeletal disorder. The mean (variance) NRS pain was 3.0 (7.5), and 34% of patients reported no pain (NRS = 0). We compared the following statistical models for analyzing NRS scores: linear regression, generalized linear models (Poisson and negative binomial), zero-inflated and hurdle models for data with an excess of zeroes, and a cumulative logit model for ordinal data. We examined model fit, interpretability of results, and whether conclusions about the predictor effects changed across models. In this study, models that accommodate zero inflation provided a better fit than the other models. These models should be considered for the analysis of NRS data with a large proportion of zeroes. We examined and analyzed pain data from a large cohort of veterans with musculoskeletal disorders. We found that many reported no current pain on the NRS on the diagnosis date. We present several alternative statistical methods for the analysis of pain intensity data with a large proportion of zeroes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using relational databases for improved sequence similarity searching and large-scale genomic analyses.

PubMed

Mackey, Aaron J; Pearson, William R

2004-10-01

Relational databases are designed to integrate diverse types of information and manage large sets of search results, greatly simplifying genome-scale analyses. Relational databases are essential for management and analysis of large-scale sequence analyses, and can also be used to improve the statistical significance of similarity searches by focusing on subsets of sequence libraries most likely to contain homologs. This unit describes using relational databases to improve the efficiency of sequence similarity searching and to demonstrate various large-scale genomic analyses of homology-related data. This unit describes the installation and use of a simple protein sequence database, seqdb_demo, which is used as a basis for the other protocols. These include basic use of the database to generate a novel sequence library subset, how to extend and use seqdb_demo for the storage of sequence similarity search results and making use of various kinds of stored search results to address aspects of comparative genomic analysis.

Large-scale three-dimensional phase-field simulations for phase coarsening at ultrahigh volume fraction on high-performance architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Hui; Wang, K. G.; Jones, Jim E.

2016-06-01

A parallel algorithm for large-scale three-dimensional phase-field simulations of phase coarsening is developed and implemented on high-performance architectures. From the large-scale simulations, a new kinetics in phase coarsening in the region of ultrahigh volume fraction is found. The parallel implementation is capable of harnessing the greater computer power available from high-performance architectures. The parallelized code enables increase in three-dimensional simulation system size up to a 5123 grid cube. Through the parallelized code, practical runtime can be achieved for three-dimensional large-scale simulations, and the statistical significance of the results from these high resolution parallel simulations are greatly improved over those obtainable from serial simulations. A detailed performance analysis on speed-up and scalability is presented, showing good scalability which improves with increasing problem size. In addition, a model for prediction of runtime is developed, which shows a good agreement with actual run time from numerical tests.

A novel approach for introducing cloud spatial structure into cloud radiative transfer parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Dong; Liu, Yangang

2014-12-01

Subgrid-scale variability is one of the main reasons why parameterizations are needed in large-scale models. Although some parameterizations started to address the issue of subgrid variability by introducing a subgrid probability distribution function for relevant quantities, the spatial structure has been typically ignored and thus the subgrid-scale interactions cannot be accounted for physically. Here we present a new statistical-physics-like approach whereby the spatial autocorrelation function can be used to physically capture the net effects of subgrid cloud interaction with radiation. The new approach is able to faithfully reproduce the Monte Carlo 3D simulation results with several orders less computational cost, allowing for more realistic representation of cloud radiation interactions in large-scale models.

Methods for Evaluating the Temperature Structure-Function Parameter Using Unmanned Aerial Systems and Large-Eddy Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wainwright, Charlotte E.; Bonin, Timothy A.; Chilson, Phillip B.; Gibbs, Jeremy A.; Fedorovich, Evgeni; Palmer, Robert D.

2015-05-01

Small-scale turbulent fluctuations of temperature are known to affect the propagation of both electromagnetic and acoustic waves. Within the inertial-subrange scale, where the turbulence is locally homogeneous and isotropic, these temperature perturbations can be described, in a statistical sense, using the structure-function parameter for temperature, . Here we investigate different methods of evaluating , using data from a numerical large-eddy simulation together with atmospheric observations collected by an unmanned aerial system and a sodar. An example case using data from a late afternoon unmanned aerial system flight on April 24 2013 and corresponding large-eddy simulation data is presented and discussed.

Statistical Surrogate Modeling of Atmospheric Dispersion Events Using Bayesian Adaptive Splines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francom, D.; Sansó, B.; Bulaevskaya, V.; Lucas, D. D.

2016-12-01

Uncertainty in the inputs of complex computer models, including atmospheric dispersion and transport codes, is often assessed via statistical surrogate models. Surrogate models are computationally efficient statistical approximations of expensive computer models that enable uncertainty analysis. We introduce Bayesian adaptive spline methods for producing surrogate models that capture the major spatiotemporal patterns of the parent model, while satisfying all the necessities of flexibility, accuracy and computational feasibility. We present novel methodological and computational approaches motivated by a controlled atmospheric tracer release experiment conducted at the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in California. Traditional methods for building statistical surrogate models often do not scale well to experiments with large amounts of data. Our approach is well suited to experiments involving large numbers of model inputs, large numbers of simulations, and functional output for each simulation. Our approach allows us to perform global sensitivity analysis with ease. We also present an approach to calibration of simulators using field data.

Low energy peripheral scaling in nucleon-nucleon scattering and uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz Simo, I.; Amaro, J. E.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Navarro Pérez, R.

2018-03-01

We analyze the peripheral structure of the nucleon-nucleon interaction for LAB energies below 350 MeV. To this end we transform the scattering matrix into the impact parameter representation by analyzing the scaled phase shifts (L + 1/2) δ JLS (p) and the scaled mixing parameters (L + 1/2)ɛ JLS (p) in terms of the impact parameter b = (L + 1/2)/p. According to the eikonal approximation, at large angular momentum L these functions should become an universal function of b, independent on L. This allows to discuss in a rather transparent way the role of statistical and systematic uncertainties in the different long range components of the two-body potential. Implications for peripheral waves obtained in chiral perturbation theory interactions to fifth order (N5LO) or from the large body of NN data considered in the SAID partial wave analysis are also drawn from comparing them with other phenomenological high-quality interactions, constructed to fit scattering data as well. We find that both N5LO and SAID peripheral waves disagree more than 5σ with the Granada-2013 statistical analysis, more than 2σ with the 6 statistically equivalent potentials fitting the Granada-2013 database and about 1σ with the historical set of 13 high-quality potentials developed since the 1993 Nijmegen analysis.

Self-sustaining processes at all scales in wall-bounded turbulent shear flows

PubMed Central

Hwang, Yongyun

2017-01-01

We collect and discuss the results of our recent studies which show evidence of the existence of a whole family of self-sustaining motions in wall-bounded turbulent shear flows with scales ranging from those of buffer-layer streaks to those of large-scale and very-large-scale motions in the outer layer. The statistical and dynamical features of this family of self-sustaining motions, which are associated with streaks and quasi-streamwise vortices, are consistent with those of Townsend’s attached eddies. Motions at each relevant scale are able to sustain themselves in the absence of forcing from larger- or smaller-scale motions by extracting energy from the mean flow via a coherent lift-up effect. The coherent self-sustaining process is embedded in a set of invariant solutions of the filtered Navier–Stokes equations which take into full account the Reynolds stresses associated with the residual smaller-scale motions. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number’. PMID:28167581

Self-sustaining processes at all scales in wall-bounded turbulent shear flows.

PubMed

Cossu, Carlo; Hwang, Yongyun

2017-03-13

We collect and discuss the results of our recent studies which show evidence of the existence of a whole family of self-sustaining motions in wall-bounded turbulent shear flows with scales ranging from those of buffer-layer streaks to those of large-scale and very-large-scale motions in the outer layer. The statistical and dynamical features of this family of self-sustaining motions, which are associated with streaks and quasi-streamwise vortices, are consistent with those of Townsend's attached eddies. Motions at each relevant scale are able to sustain themselves in the absence of forcing from larger- or smaller-scale motions by extracting energy from the mean flow via a coherent lift-up effect. The coherent self-sustaining process is embedded in a set of invariant solutions of the filtered Navier-Stokes equations which take into full account the Reynolds stresses associated with the residual smaller-scale motions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Suppression of phase mixing in drift-kinetic plasma turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parker, J. T., E-mail: joseph.parker@stfc.ac.uk; OCIAM, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Andrew Wiles Building, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG; Brasenose College, Radcliffe Square, Oxford OX1 4AJ

2016-07-15

Transfer of free energy from large to small velocity-space scales by phase mixing leads to Landau damping in a linear plasma. In a turbulent drift-kinetic plasma, this transfer is statistically nearly canceled by an inverse transfer from small to large velocity-space scales due to “anti-phase-mixing” modes excited by a stochastic form of plasma echo. Fluid moments (density, velocity, and temperature) are thus approximately energetically isolated from the higher moments of the distribution function, so phase mixing is ineffective as a dissipation mechanism when the plasma collisionality is small.

Interactive Exploration and Analysis of Large-Scale Simulations Using Topology-Based Data Segmentation.

PubMed

Bremer, Peer-Timo; Weber, Gunther; Tierny, Julien; Pascucci, Valerio; Day, Marcus S; Bell, John B

2011-09-01

Large-scale simulations are increasingly being used to study complex scientific and engineering phenomena. As a result, advanced visualization and data analysis are also becoming an integral part of the scientific process. Often, a key step in extracting insight from these large simulations involves the definition, extraction, and evaluation of features in the space and time coordinates of the solution. However, in many applications, these features involve a range of parameters and decisions that will affect the quality and direction of the analysis. Examples include particular level sets of a specific scalar field, or local inequalities between derived quantities. A critical step in the analysis is to understand how these arbitrary parameters/decisions impact the statistical properties of the features, since such a characterization will help to evaluate the conclusions of the analysis as a whole. We present a new topological framework that in a single-pass extracts and encodes entire families of possible features definitions as well as their statistical properties. For each time step we construct a hierarchical merge tree a highly compact, yet flexible feature representation. While this data structure is more than two orders of magnitude smaller than the raw simulation data it allows us to extract a set of features for any given parameter selection in a postprocessing step. Furthermore, we augment the trees with additional attributes making it possible to gather a large number of useful global, local, as well as conditional statistic that would otherwise be extremely difficult to compile. We also use this representation to create tracking graphs that describe the temporal evolution of the features over time. Our system provides a linked-view interface to explore the time-evolution of the graph interactively alongside the segmentation, thus making it possible to perform extensive data analysis in a very efficient manner. We demonstrate our framework by extracting and analyzing burning cells from a large-scale turbulent combustion simulation. In particular, we show how the statistical analysis enabled by our techniques provides new insight into the combustion process.

Dissipative structures of diffuse molecular gas. III. Small-scale intermittency of intense velocity-shears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hily-Blant, P.; Falgarone, E.; Pety, J.

2008-04-01

Aims: We further characterize the structures tentatively identified on thermal and chemical grounds as the sites of dissipation of turbulence in molecular clouds (Papers I and II). Methods: Our study is based on two-point statistics of line centroid velocities (CV), computed from three large 12CO maps of two fields. We build the probability density functions (PDF) of the CO line centroid velocity increments (CVI) over lags varying by an order of magnitude. Structure functions of the line CV are computed up to the 6th order. We compare these statistical properties in two translucent parsec-scale fields embedded in different large-scale environments, one far from virial balance and the other virialized. We also address their scale dependence in the former, more turbulent, field. Results: The statistical properties of the line CV bear the three signatures of intermittency in a turbulent velocity field: (1) the non-Gaussian tails in the CVI PDF grow as the lag decreases, (2) the departure from Kolmogorov scaling of the high-order structure functions is more pronounced in the more turbulent field, (3) the positions contributing to the CVI PDF tails delineate narrow filamentary structures (thickness ~0.02 pc), uncorrelated to dense gas structures and spatially coherent with thicker ones (~0.18 pc) observed on larger scales. We show that the largest CVI trace sharp variations of the extreme CO linewings and that they actually capture properties of the underlying velocity field, uncontaminated by density fluctuations. The confrontation with theoretical predictions leads us to identify these small-scale filamentary structures with extrema of velocity-shears. We estimate that viscous dissipation at the 0.02 pc-scale in these structures is up to 10 times higher than average, consistent with their being associated with gas warmer than the bulk. Last, their average direction is parallel (or close) to that of the local magnetic field projection. Conclusions: Turbulence in these translucent fields exhibits the statistical and structural signatures of small-scale and inertial-range intermittency. The more turbulent field on the 30 pc-scale is also the more intermittent on small scales. The small-scale intermittent structures coincide with those formerly identified as sites of enhanced dissipation. They are organized into parsec-scale coherent structures, coupling a broad range of scales. Based on observations carried out with the IRAM-30 m telescope. IRAM is supported by INSU-CNRS/MPG/IGN.

SLIDE - a web-based tool for interactive visualization of large-scale -omics data.

PubMed

Ghosh, Soumita; Datta, Abhik; Tan, Kaisen; Choi, Hyungwon

2018-06-28

Data visualization is often regarded as a post hoc step for verifying statistically significant results in the analysis of high-throughput data sets. This common practice leaves a large amount of raw data behind, from which more information can be extracted. However, existing solutions do not provide capabilities to explore large-scale raw datasets using biologically sensible queries, nor do they allow user interaction based real-time customization of graphics. To address these drawbacks, we have designed an open-source, web-based tool called Systems-Level Interactive Data Exploration, or SLIDE to visualize large-scale -omics data interactively. SLIDE's interface makes it easier for scientists to explore quantitative expression data in multiple resolutions in a single screen. SLIDE is publicly available under BSD license both as an online version as well as a stand-alone version at https://github.com/soumitag/SLIDE. Supplementary Information are available at Bioinformatics online.

Statistical analysis of corn yields responding to climate variability at various spatio-temporal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, H.; Lin, T.

2017-12-01

Rain-fed corn production systems are subject to sub-seasonal variations of precipitation and temperature during the growing season. As each growth phase has varied inherent physiological process, plants necessitate different optimal environmental conditions during each phase. However, this temporal heterogeneity towards climate variability alongside the lifecycle of crops is often simplified and fixed as constant responses in large scale statistical modeling analysis. To capture the time-variant growing requirements in large scale statistical analysis, we develop and compare statistical models at various spatial and temporal resolutions to quantify the relationship between corn yield and weather factors for 12 corn belt states from 1981 to 2016. The study compares three spatial resolutions (county, agricultural district, and state scale) and three temporal resolutions (crop growth phase, monthly, and growing season) to characterize the effects of spatial and temporal variability. Our results show that the agricultural district model together with growth phase resolution can explain 52% variations of corn yield caused by temperature and precipitation variability. It provides a practical model structure balancing the overfitting problem in county specific model and weak explanation power in state specific model. In US corn belt, precipitation has positive impact on corn yield in growing season except for vegetative stage while extreme heat attains highest sensitivity from silking to dough phase. The results show the northern counties in corn belt area are less interfered by extreme heat but are more vulnerable to water deficiency.

MANGO Imager Network Observations of Geomagnetic Storm Impact on Midlatitude 630 nm Airglow Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, E. A.; Bhatt, A.

2017-12-01

The Midlatitude Allsky-imaging Network for GeoSpace Observations (MANGO) is a network of imagers filtered at 630 nm spread across the continental United States. MANGO is used to image large-scale airglow and aurora features and observes the generation, propagation, and dissipation of medium and large-scale wave activity in the subauroral, mid and low-latitude thermosphere. This network consists of seven all-sky imagers providing continuous coverage over the United States and extending south into Mexico. This network sees high levels of medium and large scale wave activity due to both neutral and geomagnetic storm forcing. The geomagnetic storm observations largely fall into two categories: Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arcs and Large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs). In addition, less-often observed effects include anomalous airglow brightening, bright swirls, and frozen-in traveling structures. We will present an analysis of multiple events observed over four years of MANGO network operation. We will provide both statistics on the cumulative observations and a case study of the "Memorial Day Storm" on May 27, 2017.

Comparison of prestellar core elongations and large-scale molecular cloud structures in the Lupus I region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poidevin, Frédérick; Ade, Peter A. R.; Hargrave, Peter C.

2014-08-10

Turbulence and magnetic fields are expected to be important for regulating molecular cloud formation and evolution. However, their effects on sub-parsec to 100 parsec scales, leading to the formation of starless cores, are not well understood. We investigate the prestellar core structure morphologies obtained from analysis of the Herschel-SPIRE 350 μm maps of the Lupus I cloud. This distribution is first compared on a statistical basis to the large-scale shape of the main filament. We find the distribution of the elongation position angle of the cores to be consistent with a random distribution, which means no specific orientation of themore » morphology of the cores is observed with respect to the mean orientation of the large-scale filament in Lupus I, nor relative to a large-scale bent filament model. This distribution is also compared to the mean orientation of the large-scale magnetic fields probed at 350 μm with the Balloon-borne Large Aperture Telescope for Polarimetry during its 2010 campaign. Here again we do not find any correlation between the core morphology distribution and the average orientation of the magnetic fields on parsec scales. Our main conclusion is that the local filament dynamics—including secondary filaments that often run orthogonally to the primary filament—and possibly small-scale variations in the local magnetic field direction, could be the dominant factors for explaining the final orientation of each core.« less

Statistical significance test for transition matrices of atmospheric Markov chains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vautard, Robert; Mo, Kingtse C.; Ghil, Michael

1990-01-01

Low-frequency variability of large-scale atmospheric dynamics can be represented schematically by a Markov chain of multiple flow regimes. This Markov chain contains useful information for the long-range forecaster, provided that the statistical significance of the associated transition matrix can be reliably tested. Monte Carlo simulation yields a very reliable significance test for the elements of this matrix. The results of this test agree with previously used empirical formulae when each cluster of maps identified as a distinct flow regime is sufficiently large and when they all contain a comparable number of maps. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable way to test the statistical significance of transitions to and from small clusters. It can determine the most likely transitions, as well as the most unlikely ones, with a prescribed level of statistical significance.

Magnetic islands produced by reconnection in large current layers: A statistical approach to modeling at global scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fermo, Raymond Luis Lachica

2011-12-01

Magnetic reconnection is a process responsible for the conversion of magnetic energy into plasma flows in laboratory, space, and astrophysical plasmas. A product of reconnection, magnetic islands have been observed in long current layers for various space plasmas, including the magnetopause, the magnetotail, and the solar corona. In this thesis, a statistical model is developed for the dynamics of magnetic islands in very large current layers, for which conventional plasma simulations prove inadequate. An island distribution function f characterizes islands by the flux they contain psi and the area they enclose A. An integro-differential evolution equation for f describes their creation at small scales, growth due to quasi-steady reconnection, convection along the current sheet, and their coalescence with one another. The steady-state solution of the evolution equation predicts a distribution of islands in which the signature of island merging is an asymmetry in psi-- r phase space. A Hall MHD (magnetohydrodynamic) simulation of a very long current sheet with large numbers of magnetic islands is used to explore their dynamics, specifically their growth via two distinct mechanisms: quasi-steady reconnection and merging. The results of the simulation enable validation of the statistical model and benchmarking of its parameters. A PIC (particle-in-cell) simulation investigates how secondary islands form in guide field reconnection, revealing that they are born at electron skin depth scales not as islands from the tearing instability but as vortices from a flow instability. A database of 1,098 flux transfer events (FTEs) observed by Cluster between 2001 and 2003 compares favorably with the model's predictions, and also suggests island merging plays a significant role in the magnetopause. Consequently, the magnetopause is likely populated by many FTEs too small to be recognized by spacecraft instrumentation. The results of this research suggest that a complete theory of reconnection in large current sheets should account for the disparate separation of scales---from the kinetic scales at which islands are produced to the macroscale objects observed in the systems in question.

Data-Mining Techniques in Detecting Factors Linked to Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martínez Abad, Fernando; Chaparro Caso López, Alicia A.

2017-01-01

In light of the emergence of statistical analysis techniques based on data mining in education sciences, and the potential they offer to detect non-trivial information in large databases, this paper presents a procedure used to detect factors linked to academic achievement in large-scale assessments. The study is based on a non-experimental,…

Large-scale environments of narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvelä, E.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lietzen, H.; Poudel, A.; Heinämäki, P.; Einasto, M.

2017-09-01

Studying large-scale environments of narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) galaxies gives a new perspective on their properties, particularly their radio loudness. The large-scale environment is believed to have an impact on the evolution and intrinsic properties of galaxies, however, NLS1 sources have not been studied in this context before. We have a large and diverse sample of 1341 NLS1 galaxies and three separate environment data sets constructed using Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We use various statistical methods to investigate how the properties of NLS1 galaxies are connected to the large-scale environment, and compare the large-scale environments of NLS1 galaxies with other active galactic nuclei (AGN) classes, for example, other jetted AGN and broad-line Seyfert 1 (BLS1) galaxies, to study how they are related. NLS1 galaxies reside in less dense environments than any of the comparison samples, thus confirming their young age. The average large-scale environment density and environmental distribution of NLS1 sources is clearly different compared to BLS1 galaxies, thus it is improbable that they could be the parent population of NLS1 galaxies and unified by orientation. Within the NLS1 class there is a trend of increasing radio loudness with increasing large-scale environment density, indicating that the large-scale environment affects their intrinsic properties. Our results suggest that the NLS1 class of sources is not homogeneous, and furthermore, that a considerable fraction of them are misclassified. We further support a published proposal to replace the traditional classification to radio-loud, and radio-quiet or radio-silent sources with a division into jetted and non-jetted sources.

Characteristics of At-Risk Students in NELS:88. National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988. Statistical Analysis Report. Contractor Report. NCES 92-042

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaufman, Phillip; Bradbury, Denise

1992-01-01

The National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) is a large-scale, national longitudinal study designed and sponsored by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), with support from other government agencies. Beginning in the spring of 1988 with a cohort of eighth graders (25,000) attending public and private schools across…

Environmental Studies: Mathematical, Computational and Statistical Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-03-03

mathematical analysis addresses the seasonally and longitudinally averaged circulation which is under the influence of a steady forcing located asymmetrically...employed, as has been suggested for some situations. A general discussion of how interfacial phenomena influence both the original contamination process...describing the large-scale advective and dispersive behaviour of contaminants transported by groundwater and the uncertainty associated with field-scale

Intervention for First Graders with Limited Number Knowledge: Large-Scale Replication of a Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gersten, Russell; Rolfhus, Eric; Clarke, Ben; Decker, Lauren E.; Wilkins, Chuck; Dimino, Joseph

2015-01-01

Replication studies are extremely rare in education. This randomized controlled trial (RCT) is a scale-up replication of Fuchs et al., which in a sample of 139 found a statistically significant positive impact for Number Rockets, a small-group intervention for at-risk first graders that focused on building understanding of number operations. The…

Absolute fragmentation cross sections in atom-molecule collisions: Scaling laws for non-statistical fragmentation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, T.; Gatchell, M.; Stockett, M. H.

2014-06-14

We present scaling laws for absolute cross sections for non-statistical fragmentation in collisions between Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH/PAH{sup +}) and hydrogen or helium atoms with kinetic energies ranging from 50 eV to 10 keV. Further, we calculate the total fragmentation cross sections (including statistical fragmentation) for 110 eV PAH/PAH{sup +} + He collisions, and show that they compare well with experimental results. We demonstrate that non-statistical fragmentation becomes dominant for large PAHs and that it yields highly reactive fragments forming strong covalent bonds with atoms (H and N) and molecules (C{sub 6}H{sub 5}). Thus nonstatistical fragmentation may be an effectivemore » initial step in the formation of, e.g., Polycyclic Aromatic Nitrogen Heterocycles (PANHs). This relates to recent discussions on the evolution of PAHNs in space and the reactivities of defect graphene structures.« less

Large-scale velocities and primordial non-Gaussianity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, Fabian

2010-09-15

We study the peculiar velocities of density peaks in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity. Rare, high-density peaks in the initial density field can be identified with tracers such as galaxies and clusters in the evolved matter distribution. The distribution of relative velocities of peaks is derived in the large-scale limit using two different approaches based on a local biasing scheme. Both approaches agree, and show that halos still stream with the dark matter locally as well as statistically, i.e. they do not acquire a velocity bias. Nonetheless, even a moderate degree of (not necessarily local) non-Gaussianity induces a significant skewnessmore » ({approx}0.1-0.2) in the relative velocity distribution, making it a potentially interesting probe of non-Gaussianity on intermediate to large scales. We also study two-point correlations in redshift space. The well-known Kaiser formula is still a good approximation on large scales, if the Gaussian halo bias is replaced with its (scale-dependent) non-Gaussian generalization. However, there are additional terms not encompassed by this simple formula which become relevant on smaller scales (k > or approx. 0.01h/Mpc). Depending on the allowed level of non-Gaussianity, these could be of relevance for future large spectroscopic surveys.« less

Mach Number effects on turbulent superstructures in wall bounded flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaehler, Christian J.; Bross, Matthew; Scharnowski, Sven

2017-11-01

Planer and three-dimensional flow field measurements along a flat plat boundary layer in the Trisonic Wind Tunnel Munich (TWM) are examined with the aim to characterize the scaling, spatial organization, and topology of large scale turbulent superstructures in compressible flow. This facility is ideal for this investigation as the ratio of boundary layer thickness to test section spanwise extent ratio is around 1/25, ensuring minimal sidewall and corner effects on turbulent structures in the center of the test section. A major difficulty in the experimental investigation of large scale features is the mutual size of the superstructures which can extend over many boundary layer thicknesses. Using multiple PIV systems, it was possible to capture the full spatial extent of large-scale structures over a range of Mach numbers from Ma = 0.3 - 3. To calculate the average large-scale structure length and spacing, the acquired vector fields were analyzed by statistical multi-point methods that show large scale structures with a correlation length of around 10 boundary layer thicknesses over the range of Mach numbers investigated. Furthermore, the average spacing between high and low momentum structures is on the order of a boundary layer thicknesses. This work is supported by the Priority Programme SPP 1881 Turbulent Superstructures of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Statistics of velocity gradients in two-dimensional Navier-Stokes and ocean turbulence.

PubMed

Schorghofer, Norbert; Gille, Sarah T

2002-02-01

Probability density functions and conditional averages of velocity gradients derived from upper ocean observations are compared with results from forced simulations of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations. Ocean data are derived from TOPEX satellite altimeter measurements. The simulations use rapid forcing on large scales, characteristic of surface winds. The probability distributions of transverse velocity derivatives from the ocean observations agree with the forced simulations, although they differ from unforced simulations reported elsewhere. The distribution and cross correlation of velocity derivatives provide clear evidence that large coherent eddies play only a minor role in generating the observed statistics.

Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation over Llobregat river basin in Catalonia (Spain) using three downscaling methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballinas, R.; Versini, P.-A.; Sempere, D.; Escaler, I.

2009-09-01

Any long-term change in the patterns of average weather in a global or regional scale is called climate change. It may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological parameters may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc. Recent studies in Catalonia foresee changes in hydrological systems caused by climate change. This will lead to alterations in the hydrological cycle that could impact in land use, in the regimen of water extractions, in the hydrological characteristics of the territory and reduced groundwater recharge. Besides, can expect a loss of flow in rivers. In addition to possible increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall, being necessary to modify the design of infrastructure. Because this, it work focuses on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia, the Llobregat River Basin. The basin is the hub of the province of Barcelona. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, as drinking water production, agricultural irrigation, industry and hydro-electrical energy production. In consequence, many companies and communities depend on these resources. To study the impact of climate change in the Llobregat basin, storms (frequency, intensity) mainly, we will need regional climate change information. A regional climate is determined by interactions at large, regional and local scales. The general circulation models (GCMs) are run at too coarse resolution to permit accurate description of these regional and local interactions. So far, they have been unable to provide consistent estimates of climate change on a local scale. Several regionalization techniques have been developed to bridge the gap between the large-scale information provided by GCMs and fine spatial scales required for regional and environmental impact studies. Downscaling methods to assess the effect of large-scale circulations on local parameters have. Statistical downscaling methods are based on the view that regional climate can be conditioned by two factors: large-scale climatic state and regional/local features. Local climate information is derived by first developing a statistical model which relates large-scale variables or "predictors" for which GCMs are trustable to regional or local surface "predictands" for which models are less skilful. The main advantage of these methods is that they are computationally inexpensive, and can be applied to outputs from different GCM experiments. Three statistical downscaling methods are applied: Analogue method, Delta Change and Direct Forcing. These methods have been used to determine daily precipitation projections at rain gauge location to study the intensity, frequency and variability of storms in a context of climate change in the Llobregat River Basin in Catalonia, Spain. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program). It deals with Medium and long term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Two stakeholders involved in the project provided the historical time series: Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).

Computational methods to extract meaning from text and advance theories of human cognition.

PubMed

McNamara, Danielle S

2011-01-01

Over the past two decades, researchers have made great advances in the area of computational methods for extracting meaning from text. This research has to a large extent been spurred by the development of latent semantic analysis (LSA), a method for extracting and representing the meaning of words using statistical computations applied to large corpora of text. Since the advent of LSA, researchers have developed and tested alternative statistical methods designed to detect and analyze meaning in text corpora. This research exemplifies how statistical models of semantics play an important role in our understanding of cognition and contribute to the field of cognitive science. Importantly, these models afford large-scale representations of human knowledge and allow researchers to explore various questions regarding knowledge, discourse processing, text comprehension, and language. This topic includes the latest progress by the leading researchers in the endeavor to go beyond LSA. Copyright © 2010 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Diffusion-Based Density-Equalizing Maps: an Interdisciplinary Approach to Visualizing Homicide Rates and Other Georeferenced Statistical Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzitello, Karina I.; Candia, Julián

2012-12-01

In every country, public and private agencies allocate extensive funding to collect large-scale statistical data, which in turn are studied and analyzed in order to determine local, regional, national, and international policies regarding all aspects relevant to the welfare of society. One important aspect of that process is the visualization of statistical data with embedded geographical information, which most often relies on archaic methods such as maps colored according to graded scales. In this work, we apply nonstandard visualization techniques based on physical principles. We illustrate the method with recent statistics on homicide rates in Brazil and their correlation to other publicly available data. This physics-based approach provides a novel tool that can be used by interdisciplinary teams investigating statistics and model projections in a variety of fields such as economics and gross domestic product research, public health and epidemiology, sociodemographics, political science, business and marketing, and many others.

PHYSICS OF NON-GAUSSIAN FIELDS AND THE COSMOLOGICAL GENUS STATISTIC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

James, J. Berian, E-mail: berian@berkeley.edu

2012-05-20

We report a technique to calculate the impact of distinct physical processes inducing non-Gaussianity on the cosmological density field. A natural decomposition of the cosmic genus statistic into an orthogonal polynomial sequence allows complete expression of the scale-dependent evolution of the topology of large-scale structure, in which effects including galaxy bias, nonlinear gravitational evolution, and primordial non-Gaussianity may be delineated. The relationship of this decomposition to previous methods for analyzing the genus statistic is briefly considered and the following applications are made: (1) the expression of certain systematics affecting topological measurements, (2) the quantification of broad deformations from Gaussianity thatmore » appear in the genus statistic as measured in the Horizon Run simulation, and (3) the study of the evolution of the genus curve for simulations with primordial non-Gaussianity. These advances improve the treatment of flux-limited galaxy catalogs for use with this measurement and further the use of the genus statistic as a tool for exploring non-Gaussianity.« less

Large Eddy Simulation of a Turbulent Jet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, A. T.; Mansour, Nagi N.

2001-01-01

Here we present the results of a Large Eddy Simulation of a non-buoyant jet issuing from a circular orifice in a wall, and developing in neutral surroundings. The effects of the subgrid scales on the large eddies have been modeled with the dynamic large eddy simulation model applied to the fully 3D domain in spherical coordinates. The simulation captures the unsteady motions of the large-scales within the jet as well as the laminar motions in the entrainment region surrounding the jet. The computed time-averaged statistics (mean velocity, concentration, and turbulence parameters) compare well with laboratory data without invoking an empirical entrainment coefficient as employed by line integral models. The use of the large eddy simulation technique allows examination of unsteady and inhomogeneous features such as the evolution of eddies and the details of the entrainment process.

Bioregional monitoring design and occupancy estimation for two Sierra Nevadan amphibian taxa

EPA Science Inventory

Land-management agencies need quantitative, statistically rigorous monitoring data, often at large spatial and temporal scales, to support resource-management decisions. Monitoring designs typically must accommodate multiple ecological, logistical, political, and economic objec...

Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Cubasch, U.

A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique. The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It ismore » shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM). The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous [open quotes]2 CO[sub 2][close quotes] doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of I mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the lberian Peninsula, the change is - 10 mm/month, with a minimum of - 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ([open quotes]business as usual[close quotes]) increase of CO[sub 2], the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different. 17 refs., 10 figs.« less

Modelling solute dispersion in periodic heterogeneous porous media: Model benchmarking against intermediate scale experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majdalani, Samer; Guinot, Vincent; Delenne, Carole; Gebran, Hicham

2018-06-01

This paper is devoted to theoretical and experimental investigations of solute dispersion in heterogeneous porous media. Dispersion in heterogenous porous media has been reported to be scale-dependent, a likely indication that the proposed dispersion models are incompletely formulated. A high quality experimental data set of breakthrough curves in periodic model heterogeneous porous media is presented. In contrast with most previously published experiments, the present experiments involve numerous replicates. This allows the statistical variability of experimental data to be accounted for. Several models are benchmarked against the data set: the Fickian-based advection-dispersion, mobile-immobile, multirate, multiple region advection dispersion models, and a newly proposed transport model based on pure advection. A salient property of the latter model is that its solutions exhibit a ballistic behaviour for small times, while tending to the Fickian behaviour for large time scales. Model performance is assessed using a novel objective function accounting for the statistical variability of the experimental data set, while putting equal emphasis on both small and large time scale behaviours. Besides being as accurate as the other models, the new purely advective model has the advantages that (i) it does not exhibit the undesirable effects associated with the usual Fickian operator (namely the infinite solute front propagation speed), and (ii) it allows dispersive transport to be simulated on every heterogeneity scale using scale-independent parameters.

Rank Dynamics of Word Usage at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, José A.; Colman, Ewan; Sánchez, Sergio; Sánchez-Puig, Fernanda; Pineda, Carlos; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Cocho, Germinal; Flores, Jorge; Gershenson, Carlos

2018-05-01

The recent dramatic increase in online data availability has allowed researchers to explore human culture with unprecedented detail, such as the growth and diversification of language. In particular, it provides statistical tools to explore whether word use is similar across languages, and if so, whether these generic features appear at different scales of language structure. Here we use the Google Books N-grams dataset to analyze the temporal evolution of word usage in several languages. We apply measures proposed recently to study rank dynamics, such as the diversity of N-grams in a given rank, the probability that an N-gram changes rank between successive time intervals, the rank entropy, and the rank complexity. Using different methods, results show that there are generic properties for different languages at different scales, such as a core of words necessary to minimally understand a language. We also propose a null model to explore the relevance of linguistic structure across multiple scales, concluding that N-gram statistics cannot be reduced to word statistics. We expect our results to be useful in improving text prediction algorithms, as well as in shedding light on the large-scale features of language use, beyond linguistic and cultural differences across human populations.

Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.

Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less

Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part II: Scale-awareness and application to single-column model experiments

DOE PAGES

Feng, Sha; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Li, Zhijin; ...

2015-01-20

Fine-resolution three-dimensional fields have been produced using the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains region. The GSI system is implemented in a multi-scale data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. From the fine-resolution three-dimensional fields, large-scale forcing is derived explicitly at grid-scale resolution; a subgrid-scale dynamic component is derived separately, representing subgrid-scale horizontal dynamic processes. Analyses show that the subgrid-scale dynamic component is often a major component over the large-scale forcing for grid scalesmore » larger than 200 km. The single-column model (SCM) of the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) is used to examine the impact of the grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components on simulated precipitation and cloud fields associated with a mesoscale convective system. It is found that grid-scale size impacts simulated precipitation, resulting in an overestimation for grid scales of about 200 km but an underestimation for smaller grids. The subgrid-scale dynamic component has an appreciable impact on the simulations, suggesting that grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components should be considered in the interpretation of SCM simulations.« less

A novel approach for introducing cloud spatial structure into cloud radiative transfer parameterizations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Dong; Liu, Yangang

2014-12-18

Subgrid-scale variability is one of the main reasons why parameterizations are needed in large-scale models. Although some parameterizations started to address the issue of subgrid variability by introducing a subgrid probability distribution function for relevant quantities, the spatial structure has been typically ignored and thus the subgrid-scale interactions cannot be accounted for physically. Here we present a new statistical-physics-like approach whereby the spatial autocorrelation function can be used to physically capture the net effects of subgrid cloud interaction with radiation. The new approach is able to faithfully reproduce the Monte Carlo 3D simulation results with several orders less computational cost,more » allowing for more realistic representation of cloud radiation interactions in large-scale models.« less

Study on the Measurement and Calculation of Environmental Pollution Bearing Index of China’s Pig Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Bi-Bin; Gong, Jian; Zhang, Wen-bo; Ji, Xue-Qiang

2017-11-01

According to the environmental pollution caused by large-scale pig breeding, the SPSS statistical software and factor analysis method were used to calculate the environmental pollution bearing index of China’s breeding scale from 2006 to 2015. The results showed that with the increase of scale the density of live pig farming and the amount of fertilizer application in agricultural production increased. However, due to the improvement of national environmental awareness, industrial waste water discharge is greatly reduced. China's hog farming environmental pollution load index is rising.

Effects of reservoir heterogeneity on scaling of effective mass transfer coefficient for solute transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Juliana Y.; Srinivasan, Sanjay

2016-09-01

Modeling transport process at large scale requires proper scale-up of subsurface heterogeneity and an understanding of its interaction with the underlying transport mechanisms. A technique based on volume averaging is applied to quantitatively assess the scaling characteristics of effective mass transfer coefficient in heterogeneous reservoir models. The effective mass transfer coefficient represents the combined contribution from diffusion and dispersion to the transport of non-reactive solute particles within a fluid phase. Although treatment of transport problems with the volume averaging technique has been published in the past, application to geological systems exhibiting realistic spatial variability remains a challenge. Previously, the authors developed a new procedure where results from a fine-scale numerical flow simulation reflecting the full physics of the transport process albeit over a sub-volume of the reservoir are integrated with the volume averaging technique to provide effective description of transport properties. The procedure is extended such that spatial averaging is performed at the local-heterogeneity scale. In this paper, the transport of a passive (non-reactive) solute is simulated on multiple reservoir models exhibiting different patterns of heterogeneities, and the scaling behavior of effective mass transfer coefficient (Keff) is examined and compared. One such set of models exhibit power-law (fractal) characteristics, and the variability of dispersion and Keff with scale is in good agreement with analytical expressions described in the literature. This work offers an insight into the impacts of heterogeneity on the scaling of effective transport parameters. A key finding is that spatial heterogeneity models with similar univariate and bivariate statistics may exhibit different scaling characteristics because of the influence of higher order statistics. More mixing is observed in the channelized models with higher-order continuity. It reinforces the notion that the flow response is influenced by the higher-order statistical description of heterogeneity. An important implication is that when scaling-up transport response from lab-scale results to the field scale, it is necessary to account for the scale-up of heterogeneity. Since the characteristics of higher-order multivariate distributions and large-scale heterogeneity are typically not captured in small-scale experiments, a reservoir modeling framework that captures the uncertainty in heterogeneity description should be adopted.

Model-independent test for scale-dependent non-Gaussianities in the cosmic microwave background.

PubMed

Räth, C; Morfill, G E; Rossmanith, G; Banday, A J; Górski, K M

2009-04-03

We present a model-independent method to test for scale-dependent non-Gaussianities in combination with scaling indices as test statistics. Therefore, surrogate data sets are generated, in which the power spectrum of the original data is preserved, while the higher order correlations are partly randomized by applying a scale-dependent shuffling procedure to the Fourier phases. We apply this method to the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe data of the cosmic microwave background and find signatures for non-Gaussianities on large scales. Further tests are required to elucidate the origin of the detected anomalies.

Non-equilibrium statistical mechanics theory for the large scales of geophysical flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eric, S.; Bouchet, F.

2010-12-01

The aim of any theory of turbulence is to understand the statistical properties of the velocity field. As a huge number of degrees of freedom is involved, statistical mechanics is a natural approach. The self-organization of two-dimensional and geophysical turbulent flows is addressed based on statistical mechanics methods. We discuss classical and recent works on this subject; from the statistical mechanics basis of the theory up to applications to Jupiter’s troposphere and ocean vortices and jets. The equilibrium microcanonical measure is built from the Liouville theorem. Important statistical mechanics concepts (large deviations, mean field approach) and thermodynamic concepts (ensemble inequivalence, negative heat capacity) are briefly explained and used to predict statistical equilibria for turbulent flows. This is applied to make quantitative models of two-dimensional turbulence, the Great Red Spot and other Jovian vortices, ocean jets like the Gulf-Stream, and ocean vortices. A detailed comparison between these statistical equilibria and real flow observations will be discussed. We also present recent results for non-equilibrium situations, for which forces and dissipation are in a statistical balance. As an example, the concept of phase transition allows us to describe drastic changes of the whole system when a few external parameters are changed. F. Bouchet and E. Simonnet, Random Changes of Flow Topology in Two-Dimensional and Geophysical Turbulence, Physical Review Letters 102 (2009), no. 9, 094504-+. F. Bouchet and J. Sommeria, Emergence of intense jets and Jupiter's Great Red Spot as maximum-entropy structures, Journal of Fluid Mechanics 464 (2002), 165-207. A. Venaille and F. Bouchet, Ocean rings and jets as statistical equilibrium states, submitted to JPO F. Bouchet and A. Venaille, Statistical mechanics of two-dimensional and geophysical flows, submitted to Physics Reports Non-equilibrium phase transitions for the 2D Navier-Stokes equations with stochastic forces (time series and probability density functions (PDFs) of the modulus of the largest scale Fourrier component, showing bistability between dipole and unidirectional flows). This bistability is predicted by statistical mechanics.

VHSIC Electronics and the Cost of Air Force Avionics in the 1990s

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

circuit. LRM Line replaceable module. LRU Line replaceable unit. LSI Large-scale integration. LSTTL Tow-power Schottky Transitor -to-Transistor Logic...displays, communications/navigation/identification, electronic combat equipment, dispensers, and computers. These CERs, which statistically relate the...some of the reliability numbers, and adding the F-15 and F-16 to obtain the data sample shown in Table 6. Both suite costs and reliability statistics

swot: Super W Of Theta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coupon, Jean; Leauthaud, Alexie; Kilbinger, Martin; Medezinski, Elinor

2017-07-01

SWOT (Super W Of Theta) computes two-point statistics for very large data sets, based on “divide and conquer” algorithms, mainly, but not limited to data storage in binary trees, approximation at large scale, parellelization (open MPI), and bootstrap and jackknife resampling methods “on the fly”. It currently supports projected and 3D galaxy auto and cross correlations, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and weighted histograms.

Coagulation-Fragmentation Model for Animal Group-Size Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degond, Pierre; Liu, Jian-Guo; Pego, Robert L.

2017-04-01

We study coagulation-fragmentation equations inspired by a simple model proposed in fisheries science to explain data for the size distribution of schools of pelagic fish. Although the equations lack detailed balance and admit no H-theorem, we are able to develop a rather complete description of equilibrium profiles and large-time behavior, based on recent developments in complex function theory for Bernstein and Pick functions. In the large-population continuum limit, a scaling-invariant regime is reached in which all equilibria are determined by a single scaling profile. This universal profile exhibits power-law behavior crossing over from exponent -2/3 for small size to -3/2 for large size, with an exponential cutoff.

Statistics of Magnetic Reconnection X-Lines in Kinetic Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haggerty, C. C.; Parashar, T.; Matthaeus, W. H.; Shay, M. A.; Wan, M.; Servidio, S.; Wu, P.

2016-12-01

In this work we examine the statistics of magnetic reconnection (x-lines) and their associated reconnection rates in intermittent current sheets generated in turbulent plasmas. Although such statistics have been studied previously for fluid simulations (e.g. [1]), they have not yet been generalized to fully kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. A significant problem with PIC simulations, however, is electrostatic fluctuations generated due to numerical particle counting statistics. We find that analyzing gradients of the magnetic vector potential from the raw PIC field data identifies numerous artificial (or non-physical) x-points. Using small Orszag-Tang vortex PIC simulations, we analyze x-line identification and show that these artificial x-lines can be removed using sub-Debye length filtering of the data. We examine how turbulent properties such as the magnetic spectrum and scale dependent kurtosis are affected by particle noise and sub-Debye length filtering. We subsequently apply these analysis methods to a large scale kinetic PIC turbulent simulation. Consistent with previous fluid models, we find a range of normalized reconnection rates as large as ½ but with the bulk of the rates being approximately less than to 0.1. [1] Servidio, S., W. H. Matthaeus, M. A. Shay, P. A. Cassak, and P. Dmitruk (2009), Magnetic reconnection and two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence, Phys. Rev. Lett., 102, 115003.

Action detection by double hierarchical multi-structure space-time statistical matching model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jing; Zhu, Junwei; Cui, Yiyin; Bai, Lianfa; Yue, Jiang

2018-03-01

Aimed at the complex information in videos and low detection efficiency, an actions detection model based on neighboring Gaussian structure and 3D LARK features is put forward. We exploit a double hierarchical multi-structure space-time statistical matching model (DMSM) in temporal action localization. First, a neighboring Gaussian structure is presented to describe the multi-scale structural relationship. Then, a space-time statistical matching method is proposed to achieve two similarity matrices on both large and small scales, which combines double hierarchical structural constraints in model by both the neighboring Gaussian structure and the 3D LARK local structure. Finally, the double hierarchical similarity is fused and analyzed to detect actions. Besides, the multi-scale composite template extends the model application into multi-view. Experimental results of DMSM on the complex visual tracker benchmark data sets and THUMOS 2014 data sets show the promising performance. Compared with other state-of-the-art algorithm, DMSM achieves superior performances.

Action detection by double hierarchical multi-structure space–time statistical matching model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jing; Zhu, Junwei; Cui, Yiyin; Bai, Lianfa; Yue, Jiang

2018-06-01

Aimed at the complex information in videos and low detection efficiency, an actions detection model based on neighboring Gaussian structure and 3D LARK features is put forward. We exploit a double hierarchical multi-structure space-time statistical matching model (DMSM) in temporal action localization. First, a neighboring Gaussian structure is presented to describe the multi-scale structural relationship. Then, a space-time statistical matching method is proposed to achieve two similarity matrices on both large and small scales, which combines double hierarchical structural constraints in model by both the neighboring Gaussian structure and the 3D LARK local structure. Finally, the double hierarchical similarity is fused and analyzed to detect actions. Besides, the multi-scale composite template extends the model application into multi-view. Experimental results of DMSM on the complex visual tracker benchmark data sets and THUMOS 2014 data sets show the promising performance. Compared with other state-of-the-art algorithm, DMSM achieves superior performances.

The effects of intermittency on statistical characteristics of turbulence and scale similarity of breakdown coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikov, E. A.

1990-05-01

The influence of intermittency on turbulent diffusion is expressed in terms of the statistics of the dissipation field. The high-order moments of relative diffusion are obtained by using the concept of scale similarity of the breakdown coefficients (bdc). The method of bdc is useful for obtaining new models and general results, which then can be expressed in terms of multifractals. In particular, the concavity and other properties of spectral codimension are proved. Special attention is paid to the logarithmically periodic modulations. The parametrization of small-scale intermittent turbulence, which can be used for large-eddy simulation, is presented. The effect of molecular viscosity is taken into account in the spirit of the renorm group, but without spectral series, ɛ expansion, and fictitious random forces.

Reconstructing Information in Large-Scale Structure via Logarithmic Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szapudi, Istvan

We propose to develop a new method to extract information from large-scale structure data combining two-point statistics and non-linear transformations; before, this information was available only with substantially more complex higher-order statistical methods. Initially, most of the cosmological information in large-scale structure lies in two-point statistics. With non- linear evolution, some of that useful information leaks into higher-order statistics. The PI and group has shown in a series of theoretical investigations how that leakage occurs, and explained the Fisher information plateau at smaller scales. This plateau means that even as more modes are added to the measurement of the power spectrum, the total cumulative information (loosely speaking the inverse errorbar) is not increasing. Recently we have shown in Neyrinck et al. (2009, 2010) that a logarithmic (and a related Gaussianization or Box-Cox) transformation on the non-linear Dark Matter or galaxy field reconstructs a surprisingly large fraction of this missing Fisher information of the initial conditions. This was predicted by the earlier wave mechanical formulation of gravitational dynamics by Szapudi & Kaiser (2003). The present proposal is focused on working out the theoretical underpinning of the method to a point that it can be used in practice to analyze data. In particular, one needs to deal with the usual real-life issues of galaxy surveys, such as complex geometry, discrete sam- pling (Poisson or sub-Poisson noise), bias (linear, or non-linear, deterministic, or stochastic), redshift distortions, pro jection effects for 2D samples, and the effects of photometric redshift errors. We will develop methods for weak lensing and Sunyaev-Zeldovich power spectra as well, the latter specifically targetting Planck. In addition, we plan to investigate the question of residual higher- order information after the non-linear mapping, and possible applications for cosmology. Our aim will be to work out practical methods, with the ultimate goal of cosmological parameter estimation. We will quantify with standard MCMC and Fisher methods (including DETF Figure of merit when applicable) the efficiency of our estimators, comparing with the conventional method, that uses the un-transformed field. Preliminary results indicate that the increase for NASA's WFIRST in the DETF Figure of Merit would be 1.5-4.2 using a range of pessimistic to optimistic assumptions, respectively.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Janine Camille; Thompson, David; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

Statistical analysis is typically used to reduce the dimensionality of and infer meaning from data. A key challenge of any statistical analysis package aimed at large-scale, distributed data is to address the orthogonal issues of parallel scalability and numerical stability. Many statistical techniques, e.g., descriptive statistics or principal component analysis, are based on moments and co-moments and, using robust online update formulas, can be computed in an embarrassingly parallel manner, amenable to a map-reduce style implementation. In this paper we focus on contingency tables, through which numerous derived statistics such as joint and marginal probability, point-wise mutual information, information entropy,more » and {chi}{sup 2} independence statistics can be directly obtained. However, contingency tables can become large as data size increases, requiring a correspondingly large amount of communication between processors. This potential increase in communication prevents optimal parallel speedup and is the main difference with moment-based statistics (which we discussed in [1]) where the amount of inter-processor communication is independent of data size. Here we present the design trade-offs which we made to implement the computation of contingency tables in parallel. We also study the parallel speedup and scalability properties of our open source implementation. In particular, we observe optimal speed-up and scalability when the contingency statistics are used in their appropriate context, namely, when the data input is not quasi-diffuse.« less

Evaluation of high-resolution sea ice models on the basis of statistical and scaling properties of Arctic sea ice drift and deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, L.; Weiss, J.; Molines, J. M.; Barnier, B.; Bouillon, S.

2009-08-01

Sea ice drift and deformation from models are evaluated on the basis of statistical and scaling properties. These properties are derived from two observation data sets: the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS) and buoy trajectories from the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP). Two simulations obtained with the Louvain-la-Neuve Ice Model (LIM) coupled to a high-resolution ocean model and a simulation obtained with the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) were analyzed. Model ice drift compares well with observations in terms of large-scale velocity field and distributions of velocity fluctuations although a significant bias on the mean ice speed is noted. On the other hand, the statistical properties of ice deformation are not well simulated by the models: (1) The distributions of strain rates are incorrect: RGPS distributions of strain rates are power law tailed, i.e., exhibit "wild randomness," whereas models distributions remain in the Gaussian attraction basin, i.e., exhibit "mild randomness." (2) The models are unable to reproduce the spatial and temporal correlations of the deformation fields: In the observations, ice deformation follows spatial and temporal scaling laws that express the heterogeneity and the intermittency of deformation. These relations do not appear in simulated ice deformation. Mean deformation in models is almost scale independent. The statistical properties of ice deformation are a signature of the ice mechanical behavior. The present work therefore suggests that the mechanical framework currently used by models is inappropriate. A different modeling framework based on elastic interactions could improve the representation of the statistical and scaling properties of ice deformation.

A Large Scale Dynamical System Immune Network Modelwith Finite Connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uezu, T.; Kadono, C.; Hatchett, J.; Coolen, A. C. C.

We study a model of an idiotypic immune network which was introduced by N. K. Jerne. It is known that in immune systems there generally exist several kinds of immune cells which can recognize any particular antigen. Taking this fact into account and assuming that each cell interacts with only a finite number of other cells, we analyze a large scale immune network via both numerical simulations and statistical mechanical methods, and show that the distribution of the concentrations of antibodies becomes non-trivial for a range of values of the strength of the interaction and the connectivity.

Quantum statistical mechanics of nonrelativistic membranes: crumpling transition at finite temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borelli, M. E. S.; Kleinert, H.; Schakel, Adriaan M. J.

2000-03-01

The effect of quantum fluctuations on a nearly flat, nonrelativistic two-dimensional membrane with extrinsic curvature stiffness and tension is investigated. The renormalization group analysis is carried out in first-order perturbative theory. In contrast to thermal fluctuations, which soften the membrane at large scales and turn it into a crumpled surface, quantum fluctuations are found to stiffen the membrane, so that it exhibits a Hausdorff dimension equal to two. The large-scale behavior of the membrane is further studied at finite temperature, where a nontrivial fixed point is found, signaling a crumpling transition.

Characterizing and understanding the climatic determinism of high- to low-frequency variations in precipitation in northwestern France using a coupled wavelet multiresolution/statistical downscaling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Hannah, David; Lavers, David; Fossa, Manuel; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime

2017-04-01

Geophysical signals oscillate over several time-scales that explain different amount of their overall variability and may be related to different physical processes. Characterizing and understanding such variabilities in hydrological variations and investigating their determinism is one important issue in a context of climate change, as these variabilities can be occasionally superimposed to long-term trend possibly due to climate change. It is also important to refine our understanding of time-scale dependent linkages between large-scale climatic variations and hydrological responses on the regional or local-scale. Here we investigate such links by conducting a wavelet multiresolution statistical dowscaling approach of precipitation in northwestern France (Seine river catchment) over 1950-2016 using sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) as indicators of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, respectively. Previous results demonstrated that including multiresolution decomposition in a statistical downscaling model (within a so-called multiresolution ESD model) using SLP as large-scale predictor greatly improved simulation of low-frequency, i.e. interannual to interdecadal, fluctuations observed in precipitation. Building on these results, continuous wavelet transform of simulated precipiation using multiresolution ESD confirmed the good performance of the model to better explain variability at all time-scales. A sensitivity analysis of the model to the choice of the scale and wavelet function used was also tested. It appeared that whatever the wavelet used, the model performed similarly. The spatial patterns of SLP found as the best predictors for all time-scales, which resulted from the wavelet decomposition, revealed different structures according to time-scale, showing possible different determinisms. More particularly, some low-frequency components ( 3.2-yr and 19.3-yr) showed a much wide-spread spatial extentsion across the Atlantic. Moreover, in accordance with other previous studies, the wavelet components detected in SLP and precipitation on interannual to interdecadal time-scales could be interpreted in terms of influence of the Gulf-Stream oceanic front on atmospheric circulation. Current works are now conducted including SST over the Atlantic in order to get further insights into this mechanism.

Truncated Linear Statistics Associated with the Eigenvalues of Random Matrices II. Partial Sums over Proper Time Delays for Chaotic Quantum Dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabsch, Aurélien; Majumdar, Satya N.; Texier, Christophe

2017-06-01

Invariant ensembles of random matrices are characterized by the distribution of their eigenvalues \\{λ _1,\\ldots ,λ _N\\}. We study the distribution of truncated linear statistics of the form \\tilde{L}=\\sum _{i=1}^p f(λ _i) with p

A new ionospheric storm scale based on TEC and foF2 statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Michi; Tsugawa, Takuya; Jin, Hidekatsu; Ishii, Mamoru

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose the I-scale, a new ionospheric storm scale for general users in various regions in the world. With the I-scale, ionospheric storms can be classified at any season, local time, and location. Since the ionospheric condition largely depends on many factors such as solar irradiance, energy input from the magnetosphere, and lower atmospheric activity, it had been difficult to scale ionospheric storms, which are mainly caused by solar and geomagnetic activities. In this study, statistical analysis was carried out for total electron content (TEC) and F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) in Japan for 18 years from 1997 to 2014. Seasonal, local time, and latitudinal dependences of TEC and foF2 variabilities are excluded by normalizing each percentage variation using their statistical standard deviations. The I-scale is defined by setting thresholds to the normalized numbers to seven categories: I0, IP1, IP2, IP3, IN1, IN2, and IN3. I0 represents a quiet state, and IP1 (IN1), IP2 (IN2), and IP3 (IN3) represent moderate, strong, and severe positive (negative) storms, respectively. The proposed I-scale can be used for other locations, such as polar and equatorial regions. It is considered that the proposed I-scale can be a standardized scale to help the users to assess the impact of space weather on their systems.

Large-scale runoff generation - parsimonious parameterisation using high-resolution topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.-Y.

2011-08-01

World water resources have primarily been analysed by global-scale hydrological models in the last decades. Runoff generation in many of these models are based on process formulations developed at catchments scales. The division between slow runoff (baseflow) and fast runoff is primarily governed by slope and spatial distribution of effective water storage capacity, both acting at very small scales. Many hydrological models, e.g. VIC, account for the spatial storage variability in terms of statistical distributions; such models are generally proven to perform well. The statistical approaches, however, use the same runoff-generation parameters everywhere in a basin. The TOPMODEL concept, on the other hand, links the effective maximum storage capacity with real-world topography. Recent availability of global high-quality, high-resolution topographic data makes TOPMODEL attractive as a basis for a physically-based runoff-generation algorithm at large scales, even if its assumptions are not valid in flat terrain or for deep groundwater systems. We present a new runoff-generation algorithm for large-scale hydrology based on TOPMODEL concepts intended to overcome these problems. The TRG (topography-derived runoff generation) algorithm relaxes the TOPMODEL equilibrium assumption so baseflow generation is not tied to topography. TRG only uses the topographic index to distribute average storage to each topographic index class. The maximum storage capacity is proportional to the range of topographic index and is scaled by one parameter. The distribution of storage capacity within large-scale grid cells is obtained numerically through topographic analysis. The new topography-derived distribution function is then inserted into a runoff-generation framework similar VIC's. Different basin parts are parameterised by different storage capacities, and different shapes of the storage-distribution curves depend on their topographic characteristics. The TRG algorithm is driven by the HydroSHEDS dataset with a resolution of 3" (around 90 m at the equator). The TRG algorithm was validated against the VIC algorithm in a common model framework in 3 river basins in different climates. The TRG algorithm performed equally well or marginally better than the VIC algorithm with one less parameter to be calibrated. The TRG algorithm also lacked equifinality problems and offered a realistic spatial pattern for runoff generation and evaporation.

Large-scale runoff generation - parsimonious parameterisation using high-resolution topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.-Y.

2010-09-01

World water resources have primarily been analysed by global-scale hydrological models in the last decades. Runoff generation in many of these models are based on process formulations developed at catchments scales. The division between slow runoff (baseflow) and fast runoff is primarily governed by slope and spatial distribution of effective water storage capacity, both acting a very small scales. Many hydrological models, e.g. VIC, account for the spatial storage variability in terms of statistical distributions; such models are generally proven to perform well. The statistical approaches, however, use the same runoff-generation parameters everywhere in a basin. The TOPMODEL concept, on the other hand, links the effective maximum storage capacity with real-world topography. Recent availability of global high-quality, high-resolution topographic data makes TOPMODEL attractive as a basis for a physically-based runoff-generation algorithm at large scales, even if its assumptions are not valid in flat terrain or for deep groundwater systems. We present a new runoff-generation algorithm for large-scale hydrology based on TOPMODEL concepts intended to overcome these problems. The TRG (topography-derived runoff generation) algorithm relaxes the TOPMODEL equilibrium assumption so baseflow generation is not tied to topography. TGR only uses the topographic index to distribute average storage to each topographic index class. The maximum storage capacity is proportional to the range of topographic index and is scaled by one parameter. The distribution of storage capacity within large-scale grid cells is obtained numerically through topographic analysis. The new topography-derived distribution function is then inserted into a runoff-generation framework similar VIC's. Different basin parts are parameterised by different storage capacities, and different shapes of the storage-distribution curves depend on their topographic characteristics. The TRG algorithm is driven by the HydroSHEDS dataset with a resolution of 3'' (around 90 m at the equator). The TRG algorithm was validated against the VIC algorithm in a common model framework in 3 river basins in different climates. The TRG algorithm performed equally well or marginally better than the VIC algorithm with one less parameter to be calibrated. The TRG algorithm also lacked equifinality problems and offered a realistic spatial pattern for runoff generation and evaporation.

Using Residential Solar PV Quote Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Installer Pricing and Firm Size

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Margolis, Robert

2017-04-01

The vast majority of U.S. residential solar PV installers are small local-scale companies, however the industry is relatively concentrated in a few large national-scale installers. We develop a novel approach using solar PV quote data to study the price behavior of large solar PV installers in the United States. Through a paired differences approach, we find that large installer quotes are about higher, on average, than non-large installer quotes made to the same customer. The difference is statistically significant and robust after controlling for factors such as system size, equipment quality, and time effects. The results suggest that low pricesmore » are not the primary value proposition of large installer systems. We explore several hypotheses for this finding, including that large installers are able to exercise some market power and/or earn returns from reputations.« less

Numerical investigation of turbulent channel flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moin, P.; Kim, J.

1981-01-01

Fully developed turbulent channel flow was simulated numerically at Reynolds number 13800, based on centerline velocity and channel halt width. The large-scale flow field was obtained by directly integrating the filtered, three dimensional, time dependent, Navier-Stokes equations. The small-scale field motions were simulated through an eddy viscosity model. The calculations were carried out on the ILLIAC IV computer with up to 516,096 grid points. The computed flow field was used to study the statistical properties of the flow as well as its time dependent features. The agreement of the computed mean velocity profile, turbulence statistics, and detailed flow structures with experimental data is good. The resolvable portion of the statistical correlations appearing in the Reynolds stress equations are calculated. Particular attention is given to the examination of the flow structure in the vicinity of the wall.

Invariance in the recurrence of large returns and the validation of models of price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Lo-Bin; Geman, Stuart; Hsieh, Fushing; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

2013-08-01

Starting from a robust, nonparametric definition of large returns (“excursions”), we study the statistics of their occurrences, focusing on the recurrence process. The empirical waiting-time distribution between excursions is remarkably invariant to year, stock, and scale (return interval). This invariance is related to self-similarity of the marginal distributions of returns, but the excursion waiting-time distribution is a function of the entire return process and not just its univariate probabilities. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, market-time transformations based on volume or trades, and generalized (Lévy) random-walk models all fail to fit the statistical structure of excursions.

Statistical Model Applied to NetFlow for Network Intrusion Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proto, André; Alexandre, Leandro A.; Batista, Maira L.; Oliveira, Isabela L.; Cansian, Adriano M.

The computers and network services became presence guaranteed in several places. These characteristics resulted in the growth of illicit events and therefore the computers and networks security has become an essential point in any computing environment. Many methodologies were created to identify these events; however, with increasing of users and services on the Internet, many difficulties are found in trying to monitor a large network environment. This paper proposes a methodology for events detection in large-scale networks. The proposal approaches the anomaly detection using the NetFlow protocol, statistical methods and monitoring the environment in a best time for the application.

Single-trabecula building block for large-scale finite element models of cancellous bone.

PubMed

Dagan, D; Be'ery, M; Gefen, A

2004-07-01

Recent development of high-resolution imaging of cancellous bone allows finite element (FE) analysis of bone tissue stresses and strains in individual trabeculae. However, specimen-specific stress/strain analyses can include effects of anatomical variations and local damage that can bias the interpretation of the results from individual specimens with respect to large populations. This study developed a standard (generic) 'building-block' of a trabecula for large-scale FE models. Being parametric and based on statistics of dimensions of ovine trabeculae, this building block can be scaled for trabecular thickness and length and be used in commercial or custom-made FE codes to construct generic, large-scale FE models of bone, using less computer power than that currently required to reproduce the accurate micro-architecture of trabecular bone. Orthogonal lattices constructed with this building block, after it was scaled to trabeculae of the human proximal femur, provided apparent elastic moduli of approximately 150 MPa, in good agreement with experimental data for the stiffness of cancellous bone from this site. Likewise, lattices with thinner, osteoporotic-like trabeculae could predict a reduction of approximately 30% in the apparent elastic modulus, as reported in experimental studies of osteoporotic femora. Based on these comparisons, it is concluded that the single-trabecula element developed in the present study is well-suited for representing cancellous bone in large-scale generic FE simulations.

Statistical Downscaling in Multi-dimensional Wave Climate Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Méndez, F. J.; Medina, R.; Losada, I. J.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2009-04-01

Wave climate at a particular site is defined by the statistical distribution of sea state parameters, such as significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction, wind velocity, wind direction and storm surge. Nowadays, long-term time series of these parameters are available from reanalysis databases obtained by numerical models. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique is applied to characterize multi-dimensional wave climate, obtaining the relevant "wave types" spanning the historical variability. This technique summarizes multi-dimension of wave climate in terms of a set of clusters projected in low-dimensional lattice with a spatial organization, providing Probability Density Functions (PDFs) on the lattice. On the other hand, wind and storm surge depend on instantaneous local large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) fields while waves depend on the recent history of these fields (say, 1 to 5 days). Thus, these variables are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this work, a nearest-neighbors analog method is used to predict monthly multi-dimensional wave climate. This method establishes relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from numerical models (SLP fields as predictors) with local wave databases of observations (monthly wave climate SOM PDFs as predictand) to set up statistical models. A wave reanalysis database, developed by Puertos del Estado (Ministerio de Fomento), is considered as historical time series of local variables. The simultaneous SLP fields calculated by NCEP atmospheric reanalysis are used as predictors. Several applications with different size of sea level pressure grid and with different temporal domain resolution are compared to obtain the optimal statistical model that better represents the monthly wave climate at a particular site. In this work we examine the potential skill of this downscaling approach considering perfect-model conditions, but we will also analyze the suitability of this methodology to be used for seasonal forecast and for long-term climate change scenario projection of wave climate.

Measures of Agreement Between Many Raters for Ordinal Classifications

PubMed Central

Nelson, Kerrie P.; Edwards, Don

2015-01-01

Screening and diagnostic procedures often require a physician's subjective interpretation of a patient's test result using an ordered categorical scale to define the patient's disease severity. Due to wide variability observed between physicians’ ratings, many large-scale studies have been conducted to quantify agreement between multiple experts’ ordinal classifications in common diagnostic procedures such as mammography. However, very few statistical approaches are available to assess agreement in these large-scale settings. Existing summary measures of agreement rely on extensions of Cohen's kappa [1 - 5]. These are prone to prevalence and marginal distribution issues, become increasingly complex for more than three experts or are not easily implemented. Here we propose a model-based approach to assess agreement in large-scale studies based upon a framework of ordinal generalized linear mixed models. A summary measure of agreement is proposed for multiple experts assessing the same sample of patients’ test results according to an ordered categorical scale. This measure avoids some of the key flaws associated with Cohen's kappa and its extensions. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the validity of the approach with comparison to commonly used agreement measures. The proposed methods are easily implemented using the software package R and are applied to two large-scale cancer agreement studies. PMID:26095449

Large eddy simulation of orientation and rotation of ellipsoidal particles in isotropic turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jincai; Jin, Guodong; Zhang, Jian

2016-03-01

The rotational motion and orientational distribution of ellipsoidal particles in turbulent flows are of significance in environmental and engineering applications. Whereas the translational motion of an ellipsoidal particle is controlled by the turbulent motions at large scales, its rotational motion is determined by the fluid velocity gradient tensor at small scales, which raises a challenge when predicting the rotational dispersion of ellipsoidal particles using large eddy simulation (LES) method due to the lack of subgrid scale (SGS) fluid motions. We report the effects of the SGS fluid motions on the orientational and rotational statistics, such as the alignment between the long axis of ellipsoidal particles and the vorticity, the mean rotational energy at various aspect ratios against those obtained with direct numerical simulation (DNS) and filtered DNS. The performances of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the SGS velocity gradient seen by the particles and the approximate deconvolution method (ADM) for LES are investigated. It is found that the missing SGS fluid motions in LES flow fields have significant effects on the rotational statistics of ellipsoidal particles. Alignment between the particles and the vorticity is weakened; and the rotational energy of the particles is reduced in LES. The SGS-SDE model leads to a large error in predicting the alignment between the particles and the vorticity and over-predicts the rotational energy of rod-like particles. The ADM significantly improves the rotational energy prediction of particles in LES.

Closing in on the large-scale CMB power asymmetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, D.; Hutchinson, J.; Moss, A.; Scott, D.; Zibin, J. P.

2018-03-01

Measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies have revealed a dipolar asymmetry in power at the largest scales, in apparent contradiction with the statistical isotropy of standard cosmological models. The significance of the effect is not very high, and is dependent on a posteriori choices. Nevertheless, a number of models have been proposed that produce a scale-dependent asymmetry. We confront several such models for a physical, position-space modulation with CMB temperature observations. We find that, while some models that maintain the standard isotropic power spectrum are allowed, others, such as those with modulated tensor or uncorrelated isocurvature modes, can be ruled out on the basis of the overproduction of isotropic power. This remains the case even when an extra isocurvature mode fully anticorrelated with the adiabatic perturbations is added to suppress power on large scales.

Large-scale fluctuations in the diffusive decomposition of solid solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpov, V. G.; Grimsditch, M.

1995-04-01

The concept of an instability in the classic Ostwald ripening theory with respect to compositional fluctuations is suggested. We show that small statistical fluctuations in the precipitate phase lead to gigantic Coulomb-like fluctuations in the solute concentration which in turn affect the ripening. As a result large-scale fluctuations in both the precipitate and solute concentrations appear. These fluctuations are characterized by amplitudes of the order of the average values of the corresponding quantities and by a space scale L~(na)-1/2 which is considerably greater than both the average nuclear radius and internuclear distance. The Lifshitz-Slyozov theory of ripening is shown to remain locally applicable, over length scales much less than L. The implications of these findings for elastic light scattering in solid solutions that have undergone Ostwald ripening are considered.

Predicting protein functions from redundancies in large-scale protein interaction networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samanta, Manoj Pratim; Liang, Shoudan

2003-01-01

Interpreting data from large-scale protein interaction experiments has been a challenging task because of the widespread presence of random false positives. Here, we present a network-based statistical algorithm that overcomes this difficulty and allows us to derive functions of unannotated proteins from large-scale interaction data. Our algorithm uses the insight that if two proteins share significantly larger number of common interaction partners than random, they have close functional associations. Analysis of publicly available data from Saccharomyces cerevisiae reveals >2,800 reliable functional associations, 29% of which involve at least one unannotated protein. By further analyzing these associations, we derive tentative functions for 81 unannotated proteins with high certainty. Our method is not overly sensitive to the false positives present in the data. Even after adding 50% randomly generated interactions to the measured data set, we are able to recover almost all (approximately 89%) of the original associations.

Divergence of perturbation theory in large scale structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pajer, Enrico; van der Woude, Drian

2018-05-01

We make progress towards an analytical understanding of the regime of validity of perturbation theory for large scale structures and the nature of some non-perturbative corrections. We restrict ourselves to 1D gravitational collapse, for which exact solutions before shell crossing are known. We review the convergence of perturbation theory for the power spectrum, recently proven by McQuinn and White [1], and extend it to non-Gaussian initial conditions and the bispectrum. In contrast, we prove that perturbation theory diverges for the real space two-point correlation function and for the probability density function (PDF) of the density averaged in cells and all the cumulants derived from it. We attribute these divergences to the statistical averaging intrinsic to cosmological observables, which, even on very large and "perturbative" scales, gives non-vanishing weight to all extreme fluctuations. Finally, we discuss some general properties of non-perturbative effects in real space and Fourier space.

A PRACTICAL ONTOLOGY FOR THE LARGE-SCALE MODELING OF SCHOLARLY ARTIFACTS AND THEIR USAGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

RODRIGUEZ, MARKO A.; BOLLEN, JOHAN; VAN DE SOMPEL, HERBERT

2007-01-30

The large-scale analysis of scholarly artifact usage is constrained primarily by current practices in usage data archiving, privacy issues concerned with the dissemination of usage data, and the lack of a practical ontology for modeling the usage domain. As a remedy to the third constraint, this article presents a scholarly ontology that was engineered to represent those classes for which large-scale bibliographic and usage data exists, supports usage research, and whose instantiation is scalable to the order of 50 million articles along with their associated artifacts (e.g. authors and journals) and an accompanying 1 billion usage events. The real worldmore » instantiation of the presented abstract ontology is a semantic network model of the scholarly community which lends the scholarly process to statistical analysis and computational support. They present the ontology, discuss its instantiation, and provide some example inference rules for calculating various scholarly artifact metrics.« less

Subgrid-scale stresses and scalar fluxes constructed by the multi-scale turnover Lagrangian map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Bairmani, Sukaina; Li, Yi; Rosales, Carlos; Xie, Zheng-tong

2017-04-01

The multi-scale turnover Lagrangian map (MTLM) [C. Rosales and C. Meneveau, "Anomalous scaling and intermittency in three-dimensional synthetic turbulence," Phys. Rev. E 78, 016313 (2008)] uses nested multi-scale Lagrangian advection of fluid particles to distort a Gaussian velocity field and, as a result, generate non-Gaussian synthetic velocity fields. Passive scalar fields can be generated with the procedure when the fluid particles carry a scalar property [C. Rosales, "Synthetic three-dimensional turbulent passive scalar fields via the minimal Lagrangian map," Phys. Fluids 23, 075106 (2011)]. The synthetic fields have been shown to possess highly realistic statistics characterizing small scale intermittency, geometrical structures, and vortex dynamics. In this paper, we present a study of the synthetic fields using the filtering approach. This approach, which has not been pursued so far, provides insights on the potential applications of the synthetic fields in large eddy simulations and subgrid-scale (SGS) modelling. The MTLM method is first generalized to model scalar fields produced by an imposed linear mean profile. We then calculate the subgrid-scale stress, SGS scalar flux, SGS scalar variance, as well as related quantities from the synthetic fields. Comparison with direct numerical simulations (DNSs) shows that the synthetic fields reproduce the probability distributions of the SGS energy and scalar dissipation rather well. Related geometrical statistics also display close agreement with DNS results. The synthetic fields slightly under-estimate the mean SGS energy dissipation and slightly over-predict the mean SGS scalar variance dissipation. In general, the synthetic fields tend to slightly under-estimate the probability of large fluctuations for most quantities we have examined. Small scale anisotropy in the scalar field originated from the imposed mean gradient is captured. The sensitivity of the synthetic fields on the input spectra is assessed by using truncated spectra or model spectra as the input. Analyses show that most of the SGS statistics agree well with those from MTLM fields with DNS spectra as the input. For the mean SGS energy dissipation, some significant deviation is observed. However, it is shown that the deviation can be parametrized by the input energy spectrum, which demonstrates the robustness of the MTLM procedure.

Characterizing Sub-Daily Flow Regimes: Implications of Hydrologic Resolution on Ecohydrology Studies

DOE PAGES

Bevelhimer, Mark S.; McManamay, Ryan A.; O'Connor, B.

2014-05-26

Natural variability in flow is a primary factor controlling geomorphic and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. Within the hydropower industry, there is growing pressure from environmental groups and natural resource managers to change reservoir releases from daily peaking to run-of-river operations on the basis of the assumption that downstream biological communities will improve under a more natural flow regime. In this paper, we discuss the importance of assessing sub-daily flows for understanding the physical and ecological dynamics within river systems. We present a variety of metrics for characterizing sub-daily flow variation and use these metrics to evaluate general trends amongmore » streams affected by peaking hydroelectric projects, run-of-river projects and streams that are largely unaffected by flow altering activities. Univariate and multivariate techniques were used to assess similarity among different stream types on the basis of these sub-daily metrics. For comparison, similar analyses were performed using analogous metrics calculated with mean daily flow values. Our results confirm that sub-daily flow metrics reveal variation among and within streams that are not captured by daily flow statistics. Using sub-daily flow statistics, we were able to quantify the degree of difference between unaltered and peaking streams and the amount of similarity between unaltered and run-of-river streams. The sub-daily statistics were largely uncorrelated with daily statistics of similar scope. Furthermore, on short temporal scales, sub-daily statistics reveal the relatively constant nature of unaltered streamreaches and the highly variable nature of hydropower-affected streams, whereas daily statistics show just the opposite over longer temporal scales.« less

Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregow, H.; Laaksonen, A.; Alper, M. E.

2017-04-01

Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951-2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September-November PD/TGS and an increase in December-February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades.

Statistical comparison of coherent structures in fully developed turbulent pipe flow with and without drag reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sogaro, Francesca; Poole, Robert; Dennis, David

2014-11-01

High-speed stereoscopic particle image velocimetry has been performed in fully developed turbulent pipe flow at moderate Reynolds numbers with and without a drag-reducing additive (an aqueous solution of high molecular weight polyacrylamide). Three-dimensional large and very large-scale motions (LSM and VLSM) are extracted from the flow fields by a detection algorithm and the characteristics for each case are statistically compared. The results show that the three-dimensional extent of VLSMs in drag reduced (DR) flow appears to increase significantly compared to their Newtonian counterparts. A statistical increase in azimuthal extent of DR VLSM is observed by means of two-point spatial autocorrelation of the streamwise velocity fluctuation in the radial-azimuthal plane. Furthermore, a remarkable increase in length of these structures is observed by three-dimensional two-point spatial autocorrelation. These results are accompanied by an analysis of the swirling strength in the flow field that shows a significant reduction in strength and number of the vortices for the DR flow. The findings suggest that the damping of the small scales due to polymer addition results in the undisturbed development of longer flow structures.

Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951–2010

PubMed Central

Gregow, H.; Laaksonen, A.; Alper, M. E.

2017-01-01

Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951–2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September–November PD/TGS and an increase in December–February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades. PMID:28401947

Statistics of velocity fluctuations of Geldart A particles in a circulating fluidized bed riser

DOE PAGES

Vaidheeswaran, Avinash; Shaffer, Franklin; Gopalan, Balaji

2017-11-21

Here, the statistics of fluctuating velocity components are studied in the riser of a closed-loop circulating fluidized bed with fluid catalytic cracking catalyst particles. Our analysis shows distinct similarities as well as deviations compared to existing theories and bench-scale experiments. The study confirms anisotropic and non-Maxwellian distribution of fluctuating velocity components. The velocity distribution functions (VDFs) corresponding to transverse fluctuations exhibit symmetry, and follow a stretched-exponential behavior up to three standard deviations. The form of the transverse VDF is largely determined by interparticle interactions. The tails become more overpopulated with an increase in particle loading. The observed deviations from themore » Gaussian distribution are represented using the leading order term in the Sonine expansion, which is commonly used to approximate the VDFs in kinetic theory for granular flows. The vertical fluctuating VDFs are asymmetric and the skewness shifts as the wall is approached. In comparison to transverse fluctuations, the vertical VDF is determined by the local hydrodynamics. This is an observation of particle velocity fluctuations in a large-scale system and their quantitative comparison with the Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics.« less

The universe at moderate redshift

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

1992-01-01

The Final Report on the universe at moderate redshift covering the period from 1 Mar. 1988 to 28 Feb. 1991 is presented. Areas of research included: galaxy formation and large-scale structure; intergalactic medium and background radiation fields; quasar statistics and evolution; and gravitational lenses.

The Stochastic predictability limits of GCM internal variability and the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Rio Amador, Lenin; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

Over the past ten years, a key advance in our understanding of atmospheric variability is the discovery that between the weather and climate regime lies an intermediate "macroweather" regime, spanning the range of scales from ≈10 days to ≈30 years. Macroweather statistics are characterized by two fundamental symmetries: scaling and the factorization of the joint space-time statistics. In the time domain, the scaling has low intermittency with the additional property that successive fluctuations tend to cancel. In space, on the contrary the scaling has high (multifractal) intermittency corresponding to the existence of different climate zones. These properties have fundamental implications for macroweather forecasting: a) the temporal scaling implies that the system has a long range memory that can be exploited for forecasting; b) the low temporal intermittency implies that mathematically well-established (Gaussian) forecasting techniques can be used; and c), the statistical factorization property implies that although spatial correlations (including teleconnections) may be large, if long enough time series are available, they are not necessarily useful in improving forecasts. Theoretically, these conditions imply the existence of stochastic predictability limits in our talk, we show that these limits apply to GCM's. Based on these statistical implications, we developed the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) for the prediction of temperature from regional to global scales and from one month to many years horizons. One of the main components of StocSIPS is the separation and prediction of both the internal and externally forced variabilities. In order to test the theoretical assumptions and consequences for predictability and predictions, we use 41 different CMIP5 model outputs from preindustrial control runs that have fixed external forcings: whose variability is purely internally generated. We first show that these statistical assumptions hold with relatively good accuracy and then we performed hindcasts at global and regional scales from monthly to annual time resolutions using StocSIPS. We obtained excellent agreement between the hindcast Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) and the theoretical stochastic limits. We also show the application of StocSIPS to the prediction of average global temperature and compare our results with those obtained using multi-model ensemble approaches. StocSIPS has numerous advantages including a) higher MSSS for large time horizons, b) the from convergence to the real - not model - climate, c) much higher computational speed, d) no need for data assimilation, e) no ad hoc post processing and f) no need for downscaling.

Detecting anomalies in CMB maps: a new method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neelakanta, Jayanth T., E-mail: jayanthtn@gmail.com

2015-10-01

Ever since WMAP announced its first results, different analyses have shown that there is weak evidence for several large-scale anomalies in the CMB data. While the evidence for each anomaly appears to be weak, the fact that there are multiple seemingly unrelated anomalies makes it difficult to account for them via a single statistical fluke. So, one is led to considering a combination of these anomalies. But, if we ''hand-pick'' the anomalies (test statistics) to consider, we are making an a posteriori choice. In this article, we propose two statistics that do not suffer from this problem. The statistics aremore » linear and quadratic combinations of the a{sub ℓ m}'s with random co-efficients, and they test the null hypothesis that the a{sub ℓ m}'s are independent, normally-distributed, zero-mean random variables with an m-independent variance. The motivation for considering multiple modes is this: because most physical models that lead to large-scale anomalies result in coupling multiple ℓ and m modes, the ''coherence'' of this coupling should get enhanced if a combination of different modes is considered. In this sense, the statistics are thus much more generic than those that have been hitherto considered in literature. Using fiducial data, we demonstrate that the method works and discuss how it can be used with actual CMB data to make quite general statements about the incompatibility of the data with the null hypothesis.« less

The Joint Statistics of California Temperature and Precipitation as a Function of the Large-scale State of the Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OBrien, J. P.; O'Brien, T. A.

2015-12-01

Single climatic extremes have a strong and disproportionate effect on society and the natural environment. However, the joint occurrence of two or more concurrent extremes has the potential to negatively impact these areas of life in ways far greater than any single event could. California, USA, home to nearly 40 million people and the largest agricultural producer in the United States, is currently experiencing an extreme drought, which has persisted for several years. While drought is commonly thought of in terms of only precipitation deficits, above average temperatures co-occurring with precipitation deficits greatly exacerbate drought conditions. The 2014 calendar year in California was characterized both by extremely low precipitation and extremely high temperatures, which has significantly deepened the already extreme drought conditions leading to severe water shortages and wildfires. While many studies have shown the statistics of 2014 temperature and precipitation anomalies as outliers, none have demonstrated a connection with large-scale, long-term climate trends, which would provide useful relationships for predicting the future trajectory of California climate and water resources. We focus on understanding non-stationarity in the joint distribution of California temperature and precipitation anomalies in terms of large-scale, low-frequency trends in climate such as global mean temperature rise and oscillatory indices such as ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation among others. We consider temperature and precipitation data from the seven distinct climate divisions in California and employ a novel, high-fidelity kernel density estimation method to directly infer the multivariate distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies conditioned on the large-scale state of the climate. We show that the joint distributions and associated statistics of temperature and precipitation are non-stationary and vary regionally in California. Further, we show that recurrence intervals of extreme concurrent events vary as a function of time and of teleconnections. This research has implications for predicting and forecasting future temperature and precipitation anomalies, which is critically important for city, water, and agricultural planning in California.

Microwave backscattering theory and active remote sensing of the ocean surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, G. S.; Miller, L. S.

1977-01-01

The status is reviewed of electromagnetic scattering theory relative to the interpretation of microwave remote sensing data acquired from spaceborne platforms over the ocean surface. Particular emphasis is given to the assumptions which are either implicit or explicit in the theory. The multiple scale scattering theory developed during this investigation is extended to non-Gaussian surface statistics. It is shown that the important statistic for the case is the probability density function of the small scale heights conditioned on the large scale slopes; this dependence may explain the anisotropic scattering measurements recently obtained with the AAFE Radscat. It is noted that present surface measurements are inadequate to verify or reject the existing scattering theories. Surface measurements are recommended for qualifying sensor data from radar altimeters and scatterometers. Additional scattering investigations are suggested for imaging type radars employing synthetically generated apertures.

Scale dependence of the alignment between strain rate and rotation in turbulent shear flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiscaletti, D.; Elsinga, G. E.; Attili, A.; Bisetti, F.; Buxton, O. R. H.

2016-10-01

The scale dependence of the statistical alignment tendencies of the eigenvectors of the strain-rate tensor ei, with the vorticity vector ω , is examined in the self-preserving region of a planar turbulent mixing layer. Data from a direct numerical simulation are filtered at various length scales and the probability density functions of the magnitude of the alignment cosines between the two unit vectors | ei.ω ̂| are examined. It is observed that the alignment tendencies are insensitive to the concurrent large-scale velocity fluctuations, but are quantitatively affected by the nature of the concurrent large-scale velocity-gradient fluctuations. It is confirmed that the small-scale (local) vorticity vector is preferentially aligned in parallel with the large-scale (background) extensive strain-rate eigenvector e1, in contrast to the global tendency for ω to be aligned in parallel with the intermediate strain-rate eigenvector [Hamlington et al., Phys. Fluids 20, 111703 (2008), 10.1063/1.3021055]. When only data from regions of the flow that exhibit strong swirling are included, the so-called high-enstrophy worms, the alignment tendencies are exaggerated with respect to the global picture. These findings support the notion that the production of enstrophy, responsible for a net cascade of turbulent kinetic energy from large scales to small scales, is driven by vorticity stretching due to the preferential parallel alignment between ω and nonlocal e1 and that the strongly swirling worms are kinematically significant to this process.

The distribution of free electrons in the inner galaxy from pulsar dispersion measures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harding, D. S.; Harding, A. K.

1981-01-01

The dispersion measures of a sample of 149 pulsars in the inner Galaxy (absolute value of l 50 deg) were statistically analyzed to deduce the large-scale distribution of free thermal electrons in this region. The dispersion measure distribution of these pulsars shows significant evidence for a decrease in the electron scale height from a local value greater than the pulsar scale height to a value less than the pulsar scale height at galactocentric radii inside of approximately 7 kpc. An increase in the electron density (to a value around .15/cu cm at 4 to 5 kpc) must accompany such a decrease in scale height. There is also evidence for a large-scale warp in the electron distribution below the b + 0 deg plane inside the Solar circle. A model is proposed for the electron distribution which incorporates these features and Monte Carlo generated dispersion measure distributions are presented for parameters which best reproduce the observed pulsar distributions.

Boosting Bayesian parameter inference of stochastic differential equation models with methods from statistical physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Carlo; Ulzega, Simone; Stoop, Ruedi

2016-04-01

Measured time-series of both precipitation and runoff are known to exhibit highly non-trivial statistical properties. For making reliable probabilistic predictions in hydrology, it is therefore desirable to have stochastic models with output distributions that share these properties. When parameters of such models have to be inferred from data, we also need to quantify the associated parametric uncertainty. For non-trivial stochastic models, however, this latter step is typically very demanding, both conceptually and numerically, and always never done in hydrology. Here, we demonstrate that methods developed in statistical physics make a large class of stochastic differential equation (SDE) models amenable to a full-fledged Bayesian parameter inference. For concreteness we demonstrate these methods by means of a simple yet non-trivial toy SDE model. We consider a natural catchment that can be described by a linear reservoir, at the scale of observation. All the neglected processes are assumed to happen at much shorter time-scales and are therefore modeled with a Gaussian white noise term, the standard deviation of which is assumed to scale linearly with the system state (water volume in the catchment). Even for constant input, the outputs of this simple non-linear SDE model show a wealth of desirable statistical properties, such as fat-tailed distributions and long-range correlations. Standard algorithms for Bayesian inference fail, for models of this kind, because their likelihood functions are extremely high-dimensional intractable integrals over all possible model realizations. The use of Kalman filters is illegitimate due to the non-linearity of the model. Particle filters could be used but become increasingly inefficient with growing number of data points. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithms allow us to translate this inference problem to the problem of simulating the dynamics of a statistical mechanics system and give us access to most sophisticated methods that have been developed in the statistical physics community over the last few decades. We demonstrate that such methods, along with automated differentiation algorithms, allow us to perform a full-fledged Bayesian inference, for a large class of SDE models, in a highly efficient and largely automatized manner. Furthermore, our algorithm is highly parallelizable. For our toy model, discretized with a few hundred points, a full Bayesian inference can be performed in a matter of seconds on a standard PC.

Fast Generation of Ensembles of Cosmological N-Body Simulations via Mode-Resampling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, M D; Cole, S; Frenk, C S

2011-02-14

We present an algorithm for quickly generating multiple realizations of N-body simulations to be used, for example, for cosmological parameter estimation from surveys of large-scale structure. Our algorithm uses a new method to resample the large-scale (Gaussian-distributed) Fourier modes in a periodic N-body simulation box in a manner that properly accounts for the nonlinear mode-coupling between large and small scales. We find that our method for adding new large-scale mode realizations recovers the nonlinear power spectrum to sub-percent accuracy on scales larger than about half the Nyquist frequency of the simulation box. Using 20 N-body simulations, we obtain a powermore » spectrum covariance matrix estimate that matches the estimator from Takahashi et al. (from 5000 simulations) with < 20% errors in all matrix elements. Comparing the rates of convergence, we determine that our algorithm requires {approx}8 times fewer simulations to achieve a given error tolerance in estimates of the power spectrum covariance matrix. The degree of success of our algorithm indicates that we understand the main physical processes that give rise to the correlations in the matter power spectrum. Namely, the large-scale Fourier modes modulate both the degree of structure growth through the variation in the effective local matter density and also the spatial frequency of small-scale perturbations through large-scale displacements. We expect our algorithm to be useful for noise modeling when constraining cosmological parameters from weak lensing (cosmic shear) and galaxy surveys, rescaling summary statistics of N-body simulations for new cosmological parameter values, and any applications where the influence of Fourier modes larger than the simulation size must be accounted for.« less

Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities

PubMed Central

Klimek, Peter; Yegorov, Yuri; Hanel, Rudolf; Thurner, Stefan

2012-01-01

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, and that each citizen’s vote should count equally. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large numbers of electoral districts and vote according to their preferences. The large number of samples implies statistical consequences for the polling results, which can be used to identify election irregularities. Using a suitable data representation, we find that vote distributions of elections with alleged fraud show a kurtosis substantially exceeding the kurtosis of normal elections, depending on the level of data aggregation. As an example, we show that reported irregularities in recent Russian elections are, indeed, well-explained by systematic ballot stuffing. We develop a parametric model quantifying the extent to which fraudulent mechanisms are present. We formulate a parametric test detecting these statistical properties in election results. Remarkably, this technique produces robust outcomes with respect to the resolution of the data and therefore, allows for cross-country comparisons. PMID:23010929

Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities.

PubMed

Klimek, Peter; Yegorov, Yuri; Hanel, Rudolf; Thurner, Stefan

2012-10-09

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, and that each citizen's vote should count equally. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large numbers of electoral districts and vote according to their preferences. The large number of samples implies statistical consequences for the polling results, which can be used to identify election irregularities. Using a suitable data representation, we find that vote distributions of elections with alleged fraud show a kurtosis substantially exceeding the kurtosis of normal elections, depending on the level of data aggregation. As an example, we show that reported irregularities in recent Russian elections are, indeed, well-explained by systematic ballot stuffing. We develop a parametric model quantifying the extent to which fraudulent mechanisms are present. We formulate a parametric test detecting these statistical properties in election results. Remarkably, this technique produces robust outcomes with respect to the resolution of the data and therefore, allows for cross-country comparisons.

Hydrodynamic Simulations and Tomographic Reconstructions of the Intergalactic Medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stark, Casey William

The Intergalactic Medium (IGM) is the dominant reservoir of matter in the Universe from which the cosmic web and galaxies form. The structure and physical state of the IGM provides insight into the cosmological model of the Universe, the origin and timeline of the reionization of the Universe, as well as being an essential ingredient in our understanding of galaxy formation and evolution. Our primary handle on this information is a signal known as the Lyman-alpha forest (or Ly-alpha forest) -- the collection of absorption features in high-redshift sources due to intervening neutral hydrogen, which scatters HI Ly-alpha photons out of the line of sight. The Ly-alpha forest flux traces density fluctuations at high redshift and at moderate overdensities, making it an excellent tool for mapping large-scale structure and constraining cosmological parameters. Although the computational methodology for simulating the Ly-alpha forest has existed for over a decade, we are just now approaching the scale of computing power required to simultaneously capture large cosmological scales and the scales of the smallest absorption systems. My thesis focuses on using simulations at the edge of modern computing to produce precise predictions of the statistics of the Ly-alpha forest and to better understand the structure of the IGM. In the first part of my thesis, I review the state of hydrodynamic simulations of the IGM, including pitfalls of the existing under-resolved simulations. Our group developed a new cosmological hydrodynamics code to tackle the computational challenge, and I developed a distributed analysis framework to compute flux statistics from our simulations. I present flux statistics derived from a suite of our large hydrodynamic simulations and demonstrate convergence to the per cent level. I also compare flux statistics derived from simulations using different discretizations and hydrodynamic schemes (Eulerian finite volume vs. smoothed particle hydrodynamics) and discuss differences in their convergence behavior, their overall agreement, and the implications for cosmological constraints. In the second part of my thesis, I present a tomographic reconstruction method that allows us to make 3D maps of the IGM with Mpc resolution. In order to make reconstructions of large surveys computationally feasible, I developed a new Wiener Filter application with an algorithm specialized to our problem, which significantly reduces the space and time complexity compared to previous implementations. I explore two scientific applications of the maps: finding protoclusters by searching the maps for large, contiguous regions of low flux and finding cosmic voids by searching the maps for regions of high flux. Using a large N-body simulation, I identify and characterize both protoclusters and voids at z = 2.5, in the middle of the redshift range being mapped by ongoing surveys. I provide simple methods for identifying protocluster and void candidates in the tomographic flux maps, and then test them on mock surveys and reconstructions. I present forecasts for sample purity and completeness and other scientific applications of these large, high-redshift objects.

Predictability of Circulation Transitions (Observed and Modeled): Non-diffusive Dynamics, Markov Chains and Error Growth.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straus, D. M.

2006-12-01

The transitions between portions of the state space of the large-scale flow is studied from daily wintertime data over the Pacific North America region using the NCEP reanalysis data set (54 winters) and very large suites of hindcasts made with the COLA atmospheric GCM with observed SST (55 members for each of 18 winters). The partition of the large-scale state space is guided by cluster analysis, whose statistical significance and relationship to SST is reviewed (Straus and Molteni, 2004; Straus, Corti and Molteni, 2006). The determination of the global nature of the flow through state space is studied using Markov Chains (Crommelin, 2004). In particular the non-diffusive part of the flow is contrasted in nature (small data sample) and the AGCM (large data sample). The intrinsic error growth associated with different portions of the state space is studied through sets of identical twin AGCM simulations. The goal is to obtain realistic estimates of predictability times for large-scale transitions that should be useful in long-range forecasting.

Removal of two large-scale cosmic microwave background anomalies after subtraction of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rassat, A.; Starck, J.-L.; Dupé, F.-X.

2013-09-01

Context. Although there is currently a debate over the significance of the claimed large-scale anomalies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), their existence is not totally dismissed. In parallel to the debate over their statistical significance, recent work has also focussed on masks and secondary anisotropies as potential sources of these anomalies. Aims: In this work we investigate simultaneously the impact of the method used to account for masked regions as well as the impact of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect, which is the large-scale secondary anisotropy most likely to affect the CMB anomalies. In this sense, our work is an update of previous works. Our aim is to identify trends in CMB data from different years and with different mask treatments. Methods: We reconstruct the ISW signal due to 2 Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) and NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) galaxies, effectively reconstructing the low-redshift ISW signal out to z ~ 1. We account for regions of missing data using the sparse inpainting technique. We test sparse inpainting of the CMB, large scale structure and ISW and find that it constitutes a bias-free reconstruction method suitable to study large-scale statistical isotropy and the ISW effect. Results: We focus on three large-scale CMB anomalies: the low quadrupole, the quadrupole/octopole alignment, and the octopole planarity. After sparse inpainting, the low quadrupole becomes more anomalous, whilst the quadrupole/octopole alignment becomes less anomalous. The significance of the low quadrupole is unchanged after subtraction of the ISW effect, while the trend amongst the CMB maps is that both the low quadrupole and the quadrupole/octopole alignment have reduced significance, yet other hypotheses remain possible as well (e.g. exotic physics). Our results also suggest that both of these anomalies may be due to the quadrupole alone. While the octopole planarity significance is reduced after inpainting and after ISW subtraction, however, we do not find that it was very anomalous to start with. In the spirit of participating in reproducible research, we make all codes and resulting products which constitute main results of this paper public here: http://www.cosmostat.org/anomaliesCMB.html

The influence of super-horizon scales on cosmological observables generated during inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matarrese, Sabino; Musso, Marcello A.; Riotto, Antonio

2004-05-01

Using the techniques of out-of-equilibrium field theory, we study the influence on properties of cosmological perturbations generated during inflation on observable scales coming from fluctuations corresponding today to scales much bigger than the present Hubble radius. We write the effective action for the coarse grained inflaton perturbations, integrating out the sub-horizon modes, which manifest themselves as a coloured noise and lead to memory effects. Using the simple model of a scalar field with cubic self-interactions evolving in a fixed de Sitter background, we evaluate the two- and three-point correlation function on observable scales. Our basic procedure shows that perturbations do preserve some memory of the super-horizon scale dynamics, in the form of scale dependent imprints in the statistical moments. In particular, we find a blue tilt of the power spectrum on large scales, in agreement with the recent results of the WMAP collaboration which show a suppression of the lower multipoles in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, and a substantial enhancement of the intrinsic non-Gaussianity on large scales.

A new statistical model for subgrid dispersion in large eddy simulations of particle-laden flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muela, Jordi; Lehmkuhl, Oriol; Pérez-Segarra, Carles David; Oliva, Asensi

2016-09-01

Dispersed multiphase turbulent flows are present in many industrial and commercial applications like internal combustion engines, turbofans, dispersion of contaminants, steam turbines, etc. Therefore, there is a clear interest in the development of models and numerical tools capable of performing detailed and reliable simulations about these kind of flows. Large Eddy Simulations offer good accuracy and reliable results together with reasonable computational requirements, making it a really interesting method to develop numerical tools for particle-laden turbulent flows. Nonetheless, in multiphase dispersed flows additional difficulties arises in LES, since the effect of the unresolved scales of the continuous phase over the dispersed phase is lost due to the filtering procedure. In order to solve this issue a model able to reconstruct the subgrid velocity seen by the particles is required. In this work a new model for the reconstruction of the subgrid scale effects over the dispersed phase is presented and assessed. This innovative methodology is based in the reconstruction of statistics via Probability Density Functions (PDFs).

Testing Inflation with Large Scale Structure: Connecting Hopes with Reality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alvarez, Marcello; Baldauf, T.; Bond, J. Richard

2014-12-15

The statistics of primordial curvature fluctuations are our window into the period of inflation, where these fluctuations were generated. To date, the cosmic microwave background has been the dominant source of information about these perturbations. Large-scale structure is, however, from where drastic improvements should originate. In this paper, we explain the theoretical motivations for pursuing such measurements and the challenges that lie ahead. In particular, we discuss and identify theoretical targets regarding the measurement of primordial non-Gaussianity. We argue that when quantified in terms of the local (equilateral) template amplitude fmore » $$loc\\atop{NL}$$ (f$$eq\\atop{NL}$$), natural target levels of sensitivity are Δf$$loc, eq\\atop{NL}$$ ≃ 1. We highlight that such levels are within reach of future surveys by measuring 2-, 3- and 4-point statistics of the galaxy spatial distribution. This paper summarizes a workshop held at CITA (University of Toronto) on October 23-24, 2014.« less

LES versus DNS: A comparative study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shtilman, L.; Chasnov, J. R.

1992-01-01

We have performed Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of forced isotropic turbulence at moderate Reynolds numbers. The subgrid scale model used in the LES is based on an eddy viscosity which adjusts instantaneously the energy spectrum of the LES to that of the DNS. The statistics of the large scales of the DNS (filtered DNS field or fDNS) are compared to that of the LES. We present results for the transfer spectra, the skewness and flatness factors of the velocity components, the PDF's of the angle between the vorticity and the eigenvectors of the rate of strain, and that between the vorticity and the vorticity stretching tensor. The above LES statistics are found to be in good agreement with those measured in the fDNS field. We further observe that in all the numerical measurements, the trend was for the LES field to be more gaussian than the fDNS field. Future research on this point is planned.

Radiative PQ breaking and the Higgs boson mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Eramo, Francesco; Hall, Lawrence J.; Pappadopulo, Duccio

2015-06-01

The small and negative value of the Standard Model Higgs quartic coupling at high scales can be understood in terms of anthropic selection on a landscape where large and negative values are favored: most universes have a very short-lived electroweak vacuum and typical observers are in universes close to the corresponding metastability boundary. We provide a simple example of such a landscape with a Peccei-Quinn symmetry breaking scale generated through dimensional transmutation and supersymmetry softly broken at an intermediate scale. Large and negative contributions to the Higgs quartic are typically generated on integrating out the saxion field. Cancellations among these contributions are forced by the anthropic requirement of a sufficiently long-lived electroweak vacuum, determining the multiverse distribution for the Higgs quartic in a similar way to that of the cosmological constant. This leads to a statistical prediction of the Higgs boson mass that, for a wide range of parameters, yields the observed value within the 1σ statistical uncertainty of ˜ 5 GeV originating from the multiverse distribution. The strong CP problem is solved and single-component axion dark matter is predicted, with an abundance that can be understood from environmental selection. A more general setting for the Higgs mass prediction is discussed.

Three-dimensional time dependent computation of turbulent flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwak, D.; Reynolds, W. C.; Ferziger, J. H.

1975-01-01

The three-dimensional, primitive equations of motion are solved numerically for the case of isotropic box turbulence and the distortion of homogeneous turbulence by irrotational plane strain at large Reynolds numbers. A Gaussian filter is applied to governing equations to define the large scale field. This gives rise to additional second order computed scale stresses (Leonard stresses). The residual stresses are simulated through an eddy viscosity. Uniform grids are used, with a fourth order differencing scheme in space and a second order Adams-Bashforth predictor for explicit time stepping. The results are compared to the experiments and statistical information extracted from the computer generated data.

From random microstructures to representative volume elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeman, J.; Šejnoha, M.

2007-06-01

A unified treatment of random microstructures proposed in this contribution opens the way to efficient solutions of large-scale real world problems. The paper introduces a notion of statistically equivalent periodic unit cell (SEPUC) that replaces in a computational step the actual complex geometries on an arbitrary scale. A SEPUC is constructed such that its morphology conforms with images of real microstructures. Here, the appreciated two-point probability function and the lineal path function are employed to classify, from the statistical point of view, the geometrical arrangement of various material systems. Examples of statistically equivalent unit cells constructed for a unidirectional fibre tow, a plain weave textile composite and an irregular-coursed masonry wall are given. A specific result promoting the applicability of the SEPUC as a tool for the derivation of homogenized effective properties that are subsequently used in an independent macroscopic analysis is also presented.

Transition from Poissonian to Gaussian-orthogonal-ensemble level statistics in a modified Artin's billiard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csordás, A.; Graham, R.; Szépfalusy, P.; Vattay, G.

1994-01-01

One wall of an Artin's billiard on the Poincaré half-plane is replaced by a one-parameter (cp) family of nongeodetic walls. A brief description of the classical phase space of this system is given. In the quantum domain, the continuous and gradual transition from the Poisson-like to Gaussian-orthogonal-ensemble (GOE) level statistics due to the small perturbations breaking the symmetry responsible for the ``arithmetic chaos'' at cp=1 is studied. Another GOE-->Poisson transition due to the mixed phase space for large perturbations is also investigated. A satisfactory description of the intermediate level statistics by the Brody distribution was found in both cases. The study supports the existence of a scaling region around cp=1. A finite-size scaling relation for the Brody parameter as a function of 1-cp and the number of levels considered can be established.

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of a Cavity Flameholder; Assessment of Modeling Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baurle, R. A.

2015-01-01

Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. The cases simulated corresponded to those used to examine this flowfield experimentally using particle image velocimetry. A variety of turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This effort was undertaken to formally assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community. The numerical errors were quantified for both the steady-state and scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results showed a high degree of variability when comparing the predictions obtained from each turbulence model, with the non-linear eddy viscosity model (an explicit algebraic stress model) providing the most accurate prediction of the measured values. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation results were carefully scrutinized to ensure that even the coarsest grid had an acceptable level of resolution for large eddy simulation, and that the time-averaged statistics were acceptably accurate. The autocorrelation and its Fourier transform were the primary tools used for this assessment. The statistics extracted from the hybrid simulation strategy proved to be more accurate than the Reynolds-averaged results obtained using the linear eddy viscosity models. However, there was no predictive improvement noted over the results obtained from the explicit Reynolds stress model. Fortunately, the numerical error assessment at most of the axial stations used to compare with measurements clearly indicated that the scale-resolving simulations were improving (i.e. approaching the measured values) as the grid was refined. Hence, unlike a Reynolds-averaged simulation, the hybrid approach provides a mechanism to the end-user for reducing model-form errors.

[Research progress on hydrological scaling].

PubMed

Liu, Jianmei; Pei, Tiefan

2003-12-01

With the development of hydrology and the extending effect of mankind on environment, scale issue has become a great challenge to many hydrologists due to the stochasticism and complexity of hydrological phenomena and natural catchments. More and more concern has been given to the scaling issues to gain a large-scale (or small-scale) hydrological characteristic from a certain known catchments, but hasn't been solved successfully. The first part of this paper introduced some concepts about hydrological scale, scale issue and scaling. The key problem is the spatial heterogeneity of catchments and the temporal and spatial variability of hydrological fluxes. Three approaches to scale were put forward in the third part, which were distributed modeling, fractal theory and statistical self similarity analyses. Existing problems and future research directions were proposed in the last part.

Multiscale solvers and systematic upscaling in computational physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, A.

2005-07-01

Multiscale algorithms can overcome the scale-born bottlenecks that plague most computations in physics. These algorithms employ separate processing at each scale of the physical space, combined with interscale iterative interactions, in ways which use finer scales very sparingly. Having been developed first and well known as multigrid solvers for partial differential equations, highly efficient multiscale techniques have more recently been developed for many other types of computational tasks, including: inverse PDE problems; highly indefinite (e.g., standing wave) equations; Dirac equations in disordered gauge fields; fast computation and updating of large determinants (as needed in QCD); fast integral transforms; integral equations; astrophysics; molecular dynamics of macromolecules and fluids; many-atom electronic structures; global and discrete-state optimization; practical graph problems; image segmentation and recognition; tomography (medical imaging); fast Monte-Carlo sampling in statistical physics; and general, systematic methods of upscaling (accurate numerical derivation of large-scale equations from microscopic laws).

Online estimation of the wavefront outer scale profile from adaptive optics telemetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guesalaga, A.; Neichel, B.; Correia, C. M.; Butterley, T.; Osborn, J.; Masciadri, E.; Fusco, T.; Sauvage, J.-F.

2017-02-01

We describe an online method to estimate the wavefront outer scale profile, L0(h), for very large and future extremely large telescopes. The stratified information on this parameter impacts the estimation of the main turbulence parameters [turbulence strength, Cn2(h); Fried's parameter, r0; isoplanatic angle, θ0; and coherence time, τ0) and determines the performance of wide-field adaptive optics (AO) systems. This technique estimates L0(h) using data from the AO loop available at the facility instruments by constructing the cross-correlation functions of the slopes between two or more wavefront sensors, which are later fitted to a linear combination of the simulated theoretical layers having different altitudes and outer scale values. We analyse some limitations found in the estimation process: (I) its insensitivity to large values of L0(h) as the telescope becomes blind to outer scales larger than its diameter; (II) the maximum number of observable layers given the limited number of independent inputs that the cross-correlation functions provide and (III) the minimum length of data required for a satisfactory convergence of the turbulence parameters without breaking the assumption of statistical stationarity of the turbulence. The method is applied to the Gemini South multiconjugate AO system that comprises five wavefront sensors and two deformable mirrors. Statistics of L0(h) at Cerro Pachón from data acquired during 3 yr of campaigns show interesting resemblance to other independent results in the literature. A final analysis suggests that the impact of error sources will be substantially reduced in instruments of the next generation of giant telescopes.

The effects of magnetic fields and protostellar feedback on low-mass cluster formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunningham, Andrew J.; Krumholz, Mark R.; McKee, Christopher F.; Klein, Richard I.

2018-05-01

We present a large suite of simulations of the formation of low-mass star clusters. Our simulations include an extensive set of physical processes - magnetohydrodynamics, radiative transfer, and protostellar outflows - and span a wide range of virial parameters and magnetic field strengths. Comparing the outcomes of our simulations to observations, we find that simulations remaining close to virial balance throughout their history produce star formation efficiencies and initial mass function (IMF) peaks that are stable in time and in reasonable agreement with observations. Our results indicate that small-scale dissipation effects near the protostellar surface provide a feedback loop for stabilizing the star formation efficiency. This is true regardless of whether the balance is maintained by input of energy from large-scale forcing or by strong magnetic fields that inhibit collapse. In contrast, simulations that leave virial balance and undergo runaway collapse form stars too efficiently and produce an IMF that becomes increasingly top heavy with time. In all cases, we find that the competition between magnetic flux advection towards the protostar and outward advection due to magnetic interchange instabilities, and the competition between turbulent amplification and reconnection close to newly formed protostars renders the local magnetic field structure insensitive to the strength of the large-scale field, ensuring that radiation is always more important than magnetic support in setting the fragmentation scale and thus the IMF peak mass. The statistics of multiple stellar systems are similarly insensitive to variations in the initial conditions and generally agree with observations within the range of statistical uncertainty.

Detection of Chorus Elements and other Wave Signatures Using Geometric Computational Techniques in the Van Allen radiation belts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sengupta, A.; Kletzing, C.; Howk, R.; Kurth, W. S.

2017-12-01

An important goal of the Van Allen Probes mission is to understand wave particle interactions that can energize relativistic electron in the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. The EMFISIS instrumentation suite provides measurements of wave electric and magnetic fields of wave features such as chorus that participate in these interactions. Geometric signal processing discovers structural relationships, e.g. connectivity across ridge-like features in chorus elements to reveal properties such as dominant angles of the element (frequency sweep rate) and integrated power along the a given chorus element. These techniques disambiguate these wave features against background hiss-like chorus. This enables autonomous discovery of chorus elements across the large volumes of EMFISIS data. At the scale of individual or overlapping chorus elements, topological pattern recognition techniques enable interpretation of chorus microstructure by discovering connectivity and other geometric features within the wave signature of a single chorus element or between overlapping chorus elements. Thus chorus wave features can be quantified and studied at multiple scales of spectral geometry using geometric signal processing techniques. We present recently developed computational techniques that exploit spectral geometry of chorus elements and whistlers to enable large-scale automated discovery, detection and statistical analysis of these events over EMFISIS data. Specifically, we present different case studies across a diverse portfolio of chorus elements and discuss the performance of our algorithms regarding precision of detection as well as interpretation of chorus microstructure. We also provide large-scale statistical analysis on the distribution of dominant sweep rates and other properties of the detected chorus elements.

What initial condition of inflation would suppress the large-scale CMB spectrum?

DOE PAGES

Chen, Pisin; Lin, Yu -Hsiang

2016-01-08

There is an apparent power deficit relative to the Λ CDM prediction of the cosmic microwave background spectrum at large scales, which, though not yet statistically significant, persists from WMAP to Planck data. Proposals that invoke some form of initial condition for the inflation have been made to address this apparent power suppression, albeit with conflicting conclusions. By studying the curvature perturbations of a scalar field in the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker universe parameterized by the equation of state parameter w, we find that the large-scale spectrum at the end of inflation reflects the superhorizon spectrum of the initial state. The large-scale spectrummore » is suppressed if the universe begins with the adiabatic vacuum in a superinflation (w < –1) or positive-pressure (w > 0) era. In the latter case, there is however no causal mechanism to establish the initial adiabatic vacuum. On the other hand, as long as the universe begins with the adiabatic vacuum in an era with –1 < w < 0, even if there exists an intermediate positive-pressure era, the large-scale spectrum would be enhanced rather than suppressed. In conclusion, we further calculate the spectrum of a two-stage inflation model with a two-field potential and show that the result agrees with that obtained from the ad hoc single-field analysis.« less

HiQuant: Rapid Postquantification Analysis of Large-Scale MS-Generated Proteomics Data.

PubMed

Bryan, Kenneth; Jarboui, Mohamed-Ali; Raso, Cinzia; Bernal-Llinares, Manuel; McCann, Brendan; Rauch, Jens; Boldt, Karsten; Lynn, David J

2016-06-03

Recent advances in mass-spectrometry-based proteomics are now facilitating ambitious large-scale investigations of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the proteome; however, the increasing size and complexity of these data sets is overwhelming current downstream computational methods, specifically those that support the postquantification analysis pipeline. Here we present HiQuant, a novel application that enables the design and execution of a postquantification workflow, including common data-processing steps, such as assay normalization and grouping, and experimental replicate quality control and statistical analysis. HiQuant also enables the interpretation of results generated from large-scale data sets by supporting interactive heatmap analysis and also the direct export to Cytoscape and Gephi, two leading network analysis platforms. HiQuant may be run via a user-friendly graphical interface and also supports complete one-touch automation via a command-line mode. We evaluate HiQuant's performance by analyzing a large-scale, complex interactome mapping data set and demonstrate a 200-fold improvement in the execution time over current methods. We also demonstrate HiQuant's general utility by analyzing proteome-wide quantification data generated from both a large-scale public tyrosine kinase siRNA knock-down study and an in-house investigation into the temporal dynamics of the KSR1 and KSR2 interactomes. Download HiQuant, sample data sets, and supporting documentation at http://hiquant.primesdb.eu .

Spatial Heterogeneity, Scale, Data Character and Sustainable Transport in the Big Data Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Bin

2018-04-01

In light of the emergence of big data, I have advocated and argued for a paradigm shift from Tobler's law to scaling law, from Euclidean geometry to fractal geometry, from Gaussian statistics to Paretian statistics, and - more importantly - from Descartes' mechanistic thinking to Alexander's organic thinking. Fractal geometry falls under the third definition of fractal - that is, a set or pattern is fractal if the scaling of far more small things than large ones recurs multiple times (Jiang and Yin 2014) - rather than under the second definition of fractal, which requires a power law between scales and details (Mandelbrot 1982). The new fractal geometry is more towards living geometry that "follows the rules, constraints, and contingent conditions that are, inevitably, encountered in the real world" (Alexander et al. 2012, p. 395), not only for understanding complexity, but also for creating complex or living structure (Alexander 2002-2005). This editorial attempts to clarify why the paradigm shift is essential and to elaborate on several concepts, including spatial heterogeneity (scaling law), scale (or the fourth meaning of scale), data character (in contrast to data quality), and sustainable transport in the big data era.

Addressing scale dependence in roughness and morphometric statistics derived from point cloud data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buscombe, D.; Wheaton, J. M.; Hensleigh, J.; Grams, P. E.; Welcker, C. W.; Anderson, K.; Kaplinski, M. A.

2015-12-01

The heights of natural surfaces can be measured with such spatial density that almost the entire spectrum of physical roughness scales can be characterized, down to the morphological form and grain scales. With an ability to measure 'microtopography' comes a demand for analytical/computational tools for spatially explicit statistical characterization of surface roughness. Detrended standard deviation of surface heights is a popular means to create continuous maps of roughness from point cloud data, using moving windows and reporting window-centered statistics of variations from a trend surface. If 'roughness' is the statistical variation in the distribution of relief of a surface, then 'texture' is the frequency of change and spatial arrangement of roughness. The variance in surface height as a function of frequency obeys a power law. In consequence, roughness is dependent on the window size through which it is examined, which has a number of potential disadvantages: 1) the choice of window size becomes crucial, and obstructs comparisons between data; 2) if windows are large relative to multiple roughness scales, it is harder to discriminate between those scales; 3) if roughness is not scaled by the texture length scale, information on the spacing and clustering of roughness `elements' can be lost; and 4) such practice is not amenable to models describing the scattering of light and sound from rough natural surfaces. We discuss the relationship between roughness and texture. Some useful parameters which scale vertical roughness to characteristic horizontal length scales are suggested, with examples of bathymetric point clouds obtained using multibeam from two contrasting riverbeds, namely those of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, and the Snake River in Hells Canyon. Such work, aside from automated texture characterization and texture segmentation, roughness and grain size calculation, might also be useful for feature detection and classification from point clouds.

Primordial non-Gaussianity and reionization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lidz, Adam; Baxter, Eric J.; Adshead, Peter; Dodelson, Scott

2013-07-01

The statistical properties of the primordial perturbations contain clues about their origins. Although the Planck collaboration has recently obtained tight constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity from cosmic microwave background measurements, it is still worthwhile to mine upcoming data sets in an effort to place independent or competitive limits. The ionized bubbles that formed at redshift z˜6-20 during the epoch of reionization were seeded by primordial overdensities, and so the statistics of the ionization field at high redshift are related to the statistics of the primordial field. Here we model the effect of primordial non-Gaussianity on the reionization field. The epoch and duration of reionization are affected, as are the sizes of the ionized bubbles, but these changes are degenerate with variations in the properties of the ionizing sources and the surrounding intergalactic medium. A more promising signature is the power spectrum of the spatial fluctuations in the ionization field, which may be probed by upcoming 21 cm surveys. This has the expected 1/k2 dependence on large scales, characteristic of a biased tracer of the matter field. We project how well upcoming 21 cm observations will be able to disentangle this signal from foreground contamination. Although foreground cleaning inevitably removes the large-scale modes most impacted by primordial non-Gaussianity, we find that primordial non-Gaussianity can be separated from foreground contamination for a narrow range of length scales. In principle, futuristic redshifted 21 cm surveys may allow constraints competitive with Planck.

Statistical downscaling of sub-daily (6-hour) temperature in Romania, by means of artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cǎrbunaru, Felicia

2016-04-01

The role of statistical downscaling is to model the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and climatic variables on a regional and sub-regional scale, making use of the predictions of future circulation generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) in order to capture the effects of climate change on smaller areas. The study presents a statistical downscaling model based on a neural network-based approach, by means of multi-layer perceptron networks. Sub-daily temperature data series from 81 meteorological stations over Romania, with full data records are used as predictands. As large-scale predictor, the NCEP/NCAD air temperature data at 850 hPa over the domain 20-30E / 40-50N was used, at a spatial resolution of 2.5×2.5 degrees. The period 1961-1990 was used for calibration, while the validation was realized over the 1991-2010 interval. Further, in order to estimate future changes in air temperature for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, air temperature data at 850 hPa corresponding to the IPCC A1B scenario was extracted from the CNCM33 model (Meteo-France) and used as predictor. This work has been realized within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian Executive Agency for Higher Education Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI).

Deciphering Dynamical Patterns of Growth Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolakowska, A.

2009-01-01

Large systems of statistical physics often display properties that are independent of particulars that characterize their microscopic components. Universal dynamical patterns are manifested by the presence of scaling laws, which provides a common insight into governing physics of processes as vastly diverse as, e.g., growth of geological…

Thinking big: linking rivers to landscapes

Treesearch

Joan O’Callaghan; Ashley E. Steel; Kelly M. Burnett

2012-01-01

Exploring relationships between landscape characteristics and rivers is an emerging field, enabled by the proliferation of satellite date, advances in statistical analysis, and increased emphasis on large-scale monitoring. Landscapes features such as road networks, underlying geology, and human developments, determine the characteristics of the rivers flowing through...

Daily Spiritual Experiences and Prosocial Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Einolf, Christopher J.

2013-01-01

This paper examines how the Daily Spiritual Experiences Scale (DSES) relates to range of prosocial behaviors, using a large, nationally representative U.S. data set. It finds that daily spiritual experiences are a statistically and substantively significant predictor of volunteering, charitable giving, and helping individuals one knows personally.…

Large-scale correlations in gas traced by Mg II absorbers around low-mass galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffmann, Guinevere

2018-03-01

The physical origin of the large-scale conformity in the colours and specific star formation rates of isolated low-mass central galaxies and their neighbours on scales in excess of 1 Mpc is still under debate. One possible scenario is that gas is heated over large scales by feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGNs), leading to coherent modulation of cooling and star formation between well-separated galaxies. In this Letter, the metal line absorption catalogue of Zhu & Ménard is used to probe gas out to large projected radii around a sample of a million galaxies with stellar masses ˜1010M⊙ and photometric redshifts in the range 0.4 < z < 0.8 selected from Sloan Digital Sky Survey imaging data. This galaxy sample covers an effective volume of 2.2 Gpc3. A statistically significant excess of Mg II absorbers is present around the red-low-mass galaxies compared to their blue counterparts out to projected radii of 10 Mpc. In addition, the equivalent width distribution function of Mg II absorbers around low-mass galaxies is shown to be strongly affected by the presence of a nearby (Rp < 2 Mpc) radio-loud AGNs out to projected radii of 5 Mpc.

Towards an automatic statistical model for seasonal precipitation prediction and its application to Central and South Asian headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlitz, Lars; Gafurov, Abror; Apel, Heiko; Unger-Sayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Statistical climate forecast applications typically utilize a small set of large scale SST or climate indices, such as ENSO, PDO or AMO as predictor variables. If the predictive skill of these large scale modes is insufficient, specific predictor variables such as customized SST patterns are frequently included. Hence statistically based climate forecast models are either based on a fixed number of climate indices (and thus might not consider important predictor variables) or are highly site specific and barely transferable to other regions. With the aim of developing an operational seasonal forecast model, which is easily transferable to any region in the world, we present a generic data mining approach which automatically selects potential predictors from gridded SST observations and reanalysis derived large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and generates robust statistical relationships with posterior precipitation anomalies for user selected target regions. Potential predictor variables are derived by means of a cellwise correlation analysis of precipitation anomalies with gridded global climate variables under consideration of varying lead times. Significantly correlated grid cells are subsequently aggregated to predictor regions by means of a variability based cluster analysis. Finally for every month and lead time, an individual random forest based forecast model is automatically calibrated and evaluated by means of the preliminary generated predictor variables. The model is exemplarily applied and evaluated for selected headwater catchments in Central and South Asia. Particularly the for winter and spring precipitation (which is associated with westerly disturbances in the entire target domain) the model shows solid results with correlation coefficients up to 0.7, although the variability of precipitation rates is highly underestimated. Likewise for the monsoonal precipitation amounts in the South Asian target areas a certain skill of the model could be detected. The skill of the model for the dry summer season in Central Asia and the transition seasons over South Asia is found to be low. A sensitivity analysis by means on well known climate indices reveals the major large scale controlling mechanisms for the seasonal precipitation climate of each target area. For the Central Asian target areas, both, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are identified as important controlling factors for precipitation totals during moist spring season. Drought conditions are found to be triggered by a warm ENSO phase in combination with a positive phase of the NAO. For the monsoonal summer precipitation amounts over Southern Asia, the model suggests a distinct negative response to El Nino events.

Spatial and Temporal scales of time-averaged 700 MB height anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutzler, D.

1981-01-01

The monthly and seasonal forecasting technique is based to a large extent on the extrapolation of trends in the positions of the centers of time averaged geopotential height anomalies. The complete forecasted height pattern is subsequently drawn around the forecasted anomaly centers. The efficacy of this technique was tested and time series of observed monthly mean and 5 day mean 700 mb geopotential heights were examined. Autocorrelation statistics are generated to document the tendency for persistence of anomalies. These statistics are compared to a red noise hypothesis to check for evidence of possible preferred time scales of persistence. Space-time spectral analyses at middle latitudes are checked for evidence of periodicities which could be associated with predictable month-to-month trends. A local measure of the average spatial scale of anomalies is devised for guidance in the completion of the anomaly pattern around the forecasted centers.

Maximum one-shot dissipated work from Rényi divergences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunger Halpern, Nicole; Garner, Andrew J. P.; Dahlsten, Oscar C. O.; Vedral, Vlatko

2018-05-01

Thermodynamics describes large-scale, slowly evolving systems. Two modern approaches generalize thermodynamics: fluctuation theorems, which concern finite-time nonequilibrium processes, and one-shot statistical mechanics, which concerns small scales and finite numbers of trials. Combining these approaches, we calculate a one-shot analog of the average dissipated work defined in fluctuation contexts: the cost of performing a protocol in finite time instead of quasistatically. The average dissipated work has been shown to be proportional to a relative entropy between phase-space densities, to a relative entropy between quantum states, and to a relative entropy between probability distributions over possible values of work. We derive one-shot analogs of all three equations, demonstrating that the order-infinity Rényi divergence is proportional to the maximum possible dissipated work in each case. These one-shot analogs of fluctuation-theorem results contribute to the unification of these two toolkits for small-scale, nonequilibrium statistical physics.

Maximum one-shot dissipated work from Rényi divergences.

PubMed

Yunger Halpern, Nicole; Garner, Andrew J P; Dahlsten, Oscar C O; Vedral, Vlatko

2018-05-01

Thermodynamics describes large-scale, slowly evolving systems. Two modern approaches generalize thermodynamics: fluctuation theorems, which concern finite-time nonequilibrium processes, and one-shot statistical mechanics, which concerns small scales and finite numbers of trials. Combining these approaches, we calculate a one-shot analog of the average dissipated work defined in fluctuation contexts: the cost of performing a protocol in finite time instead of quasistatically. The average dissipated work has been shown to be proportional to a relative entropy between phase-space densities, to a relative entropy between quantum states, and to a relative entropy between probability distributions over possible values of work. We derive one-shot analogs of all three equations, demonstrating that the order-infinity Rényi divergence is proportional to the maximum possible dissipated work in each case. These one-shot analogs of fluctuation-theorem results contribute to the unification of these two toolkits for small-scale, nonequilibrium statistical physics.

An introduction to data reduction: space-group determination, scaling and intensity statistics.

PubMed

Evans, Philip R

2011-04-01

This paper presents an overview of how to run the CCP4 programs for data reduction (SCALA, POINTLESS and CTRUNCATE) through the CCP4 graphical interface ccp4i and points out some issues that need to be considered, together with a few examples. It covers determination of the point-group symmetry of the diffraction data (the Laue group), which is required for the subsequent scaling step, examination of systematic absences, which in many cases will allow inference of the space group, putting multiple data sets on a common indexing system when there are alternatives, the scaling step itself, which produces a large set of data-quality indicators, estimation of |F| from intensity and finally examination of intensity statistics to detect crystal pathologies such as twinning. An appendix outlines the scoring schemes used by the program POINTLESS to assign probabilities to possible Laue and space groups.

Temporal and spatial scaling impacts on extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggert, B.; Berg, P.; Haerter, J. O.; Jacob, D.; Moseley, C.

2015-01-01

Both in the current climate and in the light of climate change, understanding of the causes and risk of precipitation extremes is essential for protection of human life and adequate design of infrastructure. Precipitation extreme events depend qualitatively on the temporal and spatial scales at which they are measured, in part due to the distinct types of rain formation processes that dominate extremes at different scales. To capture these differences, we first filter large datasets of high-resolution radar measurements over Germany (5 min temporally and 1 km spatially) using synoptic cloud observations, to distinguish convective and stratiform rain events. In a second step, for each precipitation type, the observed data are aggregated over a sequence of time intervals and spatial areas. The resulting matrix allows a detailed investigation of the resolutions at which convective or stratiform events are expected to contribute most to the extremes. We analyze where the statistics of the two types differ and discuss at which resolutions transitions occur between dominance of either of the two precipitation types. We characterize the scales at which the convective or stratiform events will dominate the statistics. For both types, we further develop a mapping between pairs of spatially and temporally aggregated statistics. The resulting curve is relevant when deciding on data resolutions where statistical information in space and time is balanced. Our study may hence also serve as a practical guide for modelers, and for planning the space-time layout of measurement campaigns. We also describe a mapping between different pairs of resolutions, possibly relevant when working with mismatched model and observational resolutions, such as in statistical bias correction.

The FRIGG project: From intermediate galactic scales to self-gravitating cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennebelle, Patrick

2018-03-01

Context. Understanding the detailed structure of the interstellar gas is essential for our knowledge of the star formation process. Aim. The small-scale structure of the interstellar medium (ISM) is a direct consequence of the galactic scales and making the link between the two is essential. Methods: We perform adaptive mesh simulations that aim to bridge the gap between the intermediate galactic scales and the self-gravitating prestellar cores. For this purpose we use stratified supernova regulated ISM magneto-hydrodynamical simulations at the kpc scale to set up the initial conditions. We then zoom, performing a series of concentric uniform refinement and then refining on the Jeans length for the last levels. This allows us to reach a spatial resolution of a few 10-3 pc. The cores are identified using a clump finder and various criteria based on virial analysis. Their most relevant properties are computed and, due to the large number of objects formed in the simulations, reliable statistics are obtained. Results: The cores' properties show encouraging agreements with observations. The mass spectrum presents a clear powerlaw at high masses with an exponent close to ≃-1.3 and a peak at about 1-2 M⊙. The velocity dispersion and the angular momentum distributions are respectively a few times the local sound speed and a few 10-2 pc km s-1. We also find that the distribution of thermally supercritical cores present a range of magnetic mass-to-flux over critical mass-to-flux ratios, typically between ≃0.3 and 3 indicating that they are significantly magnetized. Investigating the time and spatial dependence of these statistical properties, we conclude that they are not significantly affected by the zooming procedure and that they do not present very large fluctuations. The most severe issue appears to be the dependence on the numerical resolution of the core mass function (CMF). While the core definition process may possibly introduce some biases, the peak tends to shift to smaller values when the resolution improves. Conclusions: Our simulations, which use self-consistently generated initial conditions at the kpc scale, produce a large number of prestellar cores from which reliable statistics can be inferred. Preliminary comparisons with observations show encouraging agreements. In particular the inferred CMFs resemble the ones inferred from recent observations. We stress, however, a possible issue with the peak position shifting with numerical resolution.

On the large eddy simulation of turbulent flows in complex geometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghosal, Sandip

1993-01-01

Application of the method of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) to a turbulent flow consists of three separate steps. First, a filtering operation is performed on the Navier-Stokes equations to remove the small spatial scales. The resulting equations that describe the space time evolution of the 'large eddies' contain the subgrid-scale (sgs) stress tensor that describes the effect of the unresolved small scales on the resolved scales. The second step is the replacement of the sgs stress tensor by some expression involving the large scales - this is the problem of 'subgrid-scale modeling'. The final step is the numerical simulation of the resulting 'closed' equations for the large scale fields on a grid small enough to resolve the smallest of the large eddies, but still much larger than the fine scale structures at the Kolmogorov length. In dividing a turbulent flow field into 'large' and 'small' eddies, one presumes that a cut-off length delta can be sensibly chosen such that all fluctuations on a scale larger than delta are 'large eddies' and the remainder constitute the 'small scale' fluctuations. Typically, delta would be a length scale characterizing the smallest structures of interest in the flow. In an inhomogeneous flow, the 'sensible choice' for delta may vary significantly over the flow domain. For example, in a wall bounded turbulent flow, most statistical averages of interest vary much more rapidly with position near the wall than far away from it. Further, there are dynamically important organized structures near the wall on a scale much smaller than the boundary layer thickness. Therefore, the minimum size of eddies that need to be resolved is smaller near the wall. In general, for the LES of inhomogeneous flows, the width of the filtering kernel delta must be considered to be a function of position. If a filtering operation with a nonuniform filter width is performed on the Navier-Stokes equations, one does not in general get the standard large eddy equations. The complication is caused by the fact that a filtering operation with a nonuniform filter width in general does not commute with the operation of differentiation. This is one of the issues that we have looked at in detail as it is basic to any attempt at applying LES to complex geometry flows. Our principal findings are summarized.

Lensing of the CMB: non-Gaussian aspects.

PubMed

Zaldarriaga, M

2001-06-01

We compute the small angle limit of the three- and four-point function of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature induced by the gravitational lensing effect by the large-scale structure of the universe. We relate the non-Gaussian aspects presented in this paper with those in our previous studies of the lensing effects. We interpret the statistics proposed in previous work in terms of different configurations of the four-point function and show how they relate to the statistic that maximizes the S/N.

Controlling Guessing Bias in the Dichotomous Rasch Model Applied to a Large-Scale, Vertically Scaled Testing Program

PubMed Central

Andrich, David; Marais, Ida; Humphry, Stephen Mark

2015-01-01

Recent research has shown how the statistical bias in Rasch model difficulty estimates induced by guessing in multiple-choice items can be eliminated. Using vertical scaling of a high-profile national reading test, it is shown that the dominant effect of removing such bias is a nonlinear change in the unit of scale across the continuum. The consequence is that the proficiencies of the more proficient students are increased relative to those of the less proficient. Not controlling the guessing bias underestimates the progress of students across 7 years of schooling with important educational implications. PMID:29795871

Scale growth of structures in the turbulent boundary layer with a rod-roughened wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jin; Kim, Jung Hoon; Lee, Jae Hwa

2016-01-01

Direct numerical simulation of a turbulent boundary layer over a rod-roughened wall is performed with a long streamwise domain to examine the streamwise-scale growth mechanism of streamwise velocity fluctuating structures in the presence of two-dimensional (2-D) surface roughness. An instantaneous analysis shows that there is a slightly larger population of long structures with a small helix angle (spanwise inclinations relative to streamwise) and a large spanwise width over the rough-wall compared to that over a smooth-wall. Further inspection of time-evolving instantaneous fields clearly exhibits that adjacent long structures combine to form a longer structure through a spanwise merging process over the rough-wall; moreover, spanwise merging for streamwise scale growth is expected to occur frequently over the rough-wall due to the large spanwise scales generated by the 2-D roughness. Finally, we examine the influence of a large width and a small helix angle of the structures over the rough-wall with regard to spatial two-point correlation. The results show that these factors can increase the streamwise coherence of the structures in a statistical sense.

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent channel flow with spanwise alternatively distributed strips control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Weidan; Lu, Lipeng; Fang, Jian; Moulinec, Charles; Yao, Yufeng

2018-05-01

The effect of spanwise alternatively distributed strips (SADS) control on turbulent flow in a plane channel has been studied by direct numerical simulations to investigate the characteristics of large-scale streamwise vortices (LSSVs) induced by small-scale active wall actuation, and their potential in suppressing flow separation. SADS control is realized by alternatively arranging out-of-phase control (OPC) and in-phase control (IPC) wall actuations on the lower channel wall surface, in the spanwise direction. It is found that the coherent structures are suppressed or enhanced alternatively by OPC or IPC, respectively, leading to the formation of a vertical shear layer, which is responsible for the LSSVs’ presence. Large-scale low-speed region can also be observed above the OPC strips, which resemble large-scale low-speed streaks. LSSVs are found to be in a statistically-converged steady state and their cores are located between two neighboring OPC and IPC strips. Their motions contribute significantly to the momentum transport in the wall-normal and spanwise directions, demonstrating their potential ability to suppress flow separation.

Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part I: Methodology and evaluation

DOE PAGES

Li, Zhijin; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Feng, Sha; ...

2015-01-20

We produce fine-resolution, three-dimensional fields of meteorological and other variables for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system is implemented in a multiscale data assimilation (MS-DA) framework that is used within the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. The MS-DA algorithm uses existing reanalysis products and constrains fine-scale atmospheric properties by assimilating high-resolution observations. A set of experiments show that the data assimilation analysis realistically reproduces the intensity, structure, and time evolution of clouds and precipitation associated with a mesoscale convective system.more » Evaluations also show that the large-scale forcing derived from the fine-resolution analysis has an overall accuracy comparable to the existing ARM operational product. For enhanced applications, the fine-resolution fields are used to characterize the contribution of subgrid variability to the large-scale forcing and to derive hydrometeor forcing, which are presented in companion papers.« less

Cosmological consistency tests of gravity theory and cosmic acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishak-Boushaki, Mustapha B.

2017-01-01

Testing general relativity at cosmological scales and probing the cause of cosmic acceleration are among the important objectives targeted by incoming and future astronomical surveys and experiments. I present our recent results on consistency tests that can provide insights about the underlying gravity theory and cosmic acceleration using cosmological data sets. We use statistical measures, the rate of cosmic expansion, the growth rate of large scale structure, and the physical consistency of these probes with one another.

Heterogeneity and scale of sustainable development in cities.

PubMed

Brelsford, Christa; Lobo, José; Hand, Joe; Bettencourt, Luís M A

2017-08-22

Rapid worldwide urbanization is at once the main cause and, potentially, the main solution to global sustainable development challenges. The growth of cities is typically associated with increases in socioeconomic productivity, but it also creates strong inequalities. Despite a growing body of evidence characterizing these heterogeneities in developed urban areas, not much is known systematically about their most extreme forms in developing cities and their consequences for sustainability. Here, we characterize the general patterns of income and access to services in a large number of developing cities, with an emphasis on an extensive, high-resolution analysis of the urban areas of Brazil and South Africa. We use detailed census data to construct sustainable development indices in hundreds of thousands of neighborhoods and show that their statistics are scale-dependent and point to the critical role of large cities in creating higher average incomes and greater access to services within their national context. We then quantify the general statistical trajectory toward universal basic service provision at different scales to show that it is characterized by varying levels of inequality, with initial increases in access being typically accompanied by growing disparities over characteristic spatial scales. These results demonstrate how extensions of these methods to other goals and data can be used over time and space to produce a simple but general quantitative assessment of progress toward internationally agreed sustainable development goals.

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

2014-04-01

Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

Heterogeneity and scale of sustainable development in cities

PubMed Central

Brelsford, Christa; Lobo, José; Hand, Joe

2017-01-01

Rapid worldwide urbanization is at once the main cause and, potentially, the main solution to global sustainable development challenges. The growth of cities is typically associated with increases in socioeconomic productivity, but it also creates strong inequalities. Despite a growing body of evidence characterizing these heterogeneities in developed urban areas, not much is known systematically about their most extreme forms in developing cities and their consequences for sustainability. Here, we characterize the general patterns of income and access to services in a large number of developing cities, with an emphasis on an extensive, high-resolution analysis of the urban areas of Brazil and South Africa. We use detailed census data to construct sustainable development indices in hundreds of thousands of neighborhoods and show that their statistics are scale-dependent and point to the critical role of large cities in creating higher average incomes and greater access to services within their national context. We then quantify the general statistical trajectory toward universal basic service provision at different scales to show that it is characterized by varying levels of inequality, with initial increases in access being typically accompanied by growing disparities over characteristic spatial scales. These results demonstrate how extensions of these methods to other goals and data can be used over time and space to produce a simple but general quantitative assessment of progress toward internationally agreed sustainable development goals. PMID:28461489

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

The impact of Lyman-α radiative transfer on large-scale clustering in the Illustris simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, C.; Byrohl, C.; Saito, S.; Niemeyer, J. C.

2018-06-01

Context. Lyman-α emitters (LAEs) are a promising probe of the large-scale structure at high redshift, z ≳ 2. In particular, the Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment aims at observing LAEs at 1.9 < z < 3.5 to measure the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale and the redshift-space distortion (RSD). However, it has been pointed out that the complicated radiative transfer (RT) of the resonant Lyman-α emission line generates an anisotropic selection bias in the LAE clustering on large scales, s ≳ 10 Mpc. This effect could potentially induce a systematic error in the BAO and RSD measurements. Also, there exists a recent claim to have observational evidence of the effect in the Lyman-α intensity map, albeit statistically insignificant. Aims: We aim at quantifying the impact of the Lyman-α RT on the large-scale galaxy clustering in detail. For this purpose, we study the correlations between the large-scale environment and the ratio of an apparent Lyman-α luminosity to an intrinsic one, which we call the "observed fraction", at 2 < z < 6. Methods: We apply our Lyman-α RT code by post-processing the full Illustris simulations. We simply assume that the intrinsic luminosity of the Lyman-α emission is proportional to the star formation rate of galaxies in Illustris, yielding a sufficiently large sample of LAEs to measure the anisotropic selection bias. Results: We find little correlation between large-scale environment and the observed fraction induced by the RT, and hence a smaller anisotropic selection bias than has previously been claimed. We argue that the anisotropy was overestimated in previous work due to insufficient spatial resolution; it is important to keep the resolution such that it resolves the high-density region down to the scale of the interstellar medium, that is, 1 physical kpc. We also find that the correlation can be further enhanced by assumptions in modeling intrinsic Lyman-α emission.

Evaluating the Performance of the Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework against GPM, TRMM and CloudSat/CALIPSO Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, J. D.; Tao, W. K.; Lang, S. E.; Matsui, T.; Mohr, K. I.

2014-12-01

Four six-month (March-August 2014) experiments with the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) were performed to study the impacts of different Goddard one-moment bulk microphysical schemes and large-scale forcings on the performance of the MMF. Recently a new Goddard one-moment bulk microphysics with four-ice classes (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) has been developed based on cloud-resolving model simulations with large-scale forcings from field campaign observations. The new scheme has been successfully implemented to the MMF and two MMF experiments were carried out with this new scheme and the old three-ice classes (cloud ice, snow graupel) scheme. The MMF has global coverage and can rigorously evaluate microphysics performance for different cloud regimes. The results show MMF with the new scheme outperformed the old one. The MMF simulations are also strongly affected by the interaction between large-scale and cloud-scale processes. Two MMF sensitivity experiments with and without nudging large-scale forcings to those of ERA-Interim reanalysis were carried out to study the impacts of large-scale forcings. The model simulated mean and variability of surface precipitation, cloud types, cloud properties such as cloud amount, hydrometeors vertical profiles, and cloud water contents, etc. in different geographic locations and climate regimes are evaluated against GPM, TRMM, CloudSat/CALIPSO satellite observations. The Goddard MMF has also been coupled with the Goddard Satellite Data Simulation Unit (G-SDSU), a system with multi-satellite, multi-sensor, and multi-spectrum satellite simulators. The statistics of MMF simulated radiances and backscattering can be directly compared with satellite observations to assess the strengths and/or deficiencies of MMF simulations and provide guidance on how to improve the MMF and microphysics.

Acquiring data for large aquatic resource surveys: the art of ompromise among science, logistics, and reality

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is revising its strategy to obtain the information needed to answer questions pertinent to water-quality management efficiently and rigorously at national scales. One tool of this revised strategy is use of statistically based surveys ...

A Fast Turn-Around Facility for Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI)

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

statistics determination, the first test mask set will use the MATRIX chip design which was recently developed here at Stanford. This chip provides...reached when the basewidth is reduced to zero. Such devices, variably known as depleted- base transistors or bipolar static-induction transitors , have been

Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shebalin, John V.

2014-01-01

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e. the Flumendosa catchment, using climate model rainfall and atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com). In doing so, we split the historical rainfall record of mean areal precipitation (MAP) in 15-year calibration and 45-year validation periods, and compare the historical rainfall statistics to those obtained from: a) Q-Q corrected climate model rainfall products, and b) synthetic rainfall series generated by the suggested downscaling scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first time that climate model rainfall and statistically downscaled precipitation are compared to catchment-averaged MAP at a daily resolution. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the climate model used and the length of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for the yearly rainfall maxima, where direct statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs shows increased sensitivity to the length of the calibration period and the climate model used. The robustness of the suggested downscaling scheme in modeling rainfall extremes at a daily resolution, is a notable feature that can effectively be used to assess hydrologic risk at a regional level under changing climatic conditions. Acknowledgments The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. CRS4 highly acknowledges the contribution of the Sardinian regional authorities.

The Relationship Between Galaxies and the Large-Scale Structure of the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coil, Alison L.

2018-06-01

I will describe our current understanding of the relationship between galaxies and the large-scale structure of the Universe, often called the galaxy-halo connection. Galaxies are thought to form and evolve in the centers of dark matter halos, which grow along with the galaxies they host. Large galaxy redshift surveys have revealed clear observational signatures of connections between galaxy properties and their clustering properties on large scales. For example, older, quiescent galaxies are known to cluster more strongly than younger, star-forming galaxies, which are more likely to be found in galactic voids and filaments rather than the centers of galaxy clusters. I will show how cosmological numerical simulations have aided our understanding of this galaxy-halo connection and what is known from a statistical point of view about how galaxies populate dark matter halos. This knowledge both helps us learn about galaxy evolution and is fundamental to our ability to use galaxy surveys to reveal cosmological information. I will talk briefly about some of the current open questions in the field, including galactic conformity and assembly bias.

Short-term rainfall: its scaling properties over Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima, M. Isabel P.

2010-05-01

The characterization of rainfall at a variety of space- and time-scales demands usually that data from different origins and resolution are explored. Different tools and methodologies can be used for this purpose. In regions where the spatial variation of rain is marked, the study of the scaling structure of rainfall can lead to a better understanding of the type of events affecting that specific area, which is essential for many engineering applications. The relevant factors affecting rain variability, in time and space, can lead to contrasting statistics which should be carefully taken into account in design procedures and decision making processes. One such region is Mainland Portugal; the territory is located in the transitional region between the sub-tropical anticyclone and the subpolar depression zones and is characterized by strong north-south and east-west rainfall gradients. The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of rain are particularly influenced by the characteristics of the global circulation. One specific feature is the Atlantic origin of many synoptic disturbances in the context of the regional geography (e.g. latitude, orography, oceanic and continental influences). Thus, aiming at investigating the statistical signature of rain events of different origins, resulting from the large number of mechanisms and factors affecting the rainfall climate over Portugal, scale-invariant analyses of the temporal structure of rain from several locations in mainland Portugal were conducted. The study used short-term rainfall time series. Relevant scaling ranges were identified and characterized that help clarifying the small-scale behaviour and statistics of this process.

Synchronization and Causality Across Time-scales: Complex Dynamics and Extremes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajcay, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Tsonis, A.; Palus, M.

2017-12-01

A better understanding of dynamics in complex systems, such as the Earth's climate is one of the key challenges for contemporary science and society. A large amount of experimental data requires new mathematical and computational approaches. Natural complex systems vary on many temporal and spatial scales, often exhibiting recurring patterns and quasi-oscillatory phenomena. The statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding of underlying mechanisms and a key for modeling and prediction of such systems. This study introduces and applies information theory diagnostics to phase and amplitude time series of different wavelet components of the observed data that characterizes El Niño. A suite of significant interactions between processes operating on different time scales was detected, and intermittent synchronization among different time scales has been associated with the extreme El Niño events. The mechanisms of these nonlinear interactions were further studied in conceptual low-order and state-of-the-art dynamical, as well as statistical climate models. Observed and simulated interactions exhibit substantial discrepancies, whose understanding may be the key to an improved prediction. Moreover, the statistical framework which we apply here is suitable for direct usage of inferring cross-scale interactions in nonlinear time series from complex systems such as the terrestrial magnetosphere, solar-terrestrial interactions, seismic activity or even human brain dynamics.

Introduction to bioinformatics.

PubMed

Can, Tolga

2014-01-01

Bioinformatics is an interdisciplinary field mainly involving molecular biology and genetics, computer science, mathematics, and statistics. Data intensive, large-scale biological problems are addressed from a computational point of view. The most common problems are modeling biological processes at the molecular level and making inferences from collected data. A bioinformatics solution usually involves the following steps: Collect statistics from biological data. Build a computational model. Solve a computational modeling problem. Test and evaluate a computational algorithm. This chapter gives a brief introduction to bioinformatics by first providing an introduction to biological terminology and then discussing some classical bioinformatics problems organized by the types of data sources. Sequence analysis is the analysis of DNA and protein sequences for clues regarding function and includes subproblems such as identification of homologs, multiple sequence alignment, searching sequence patterns, and evolutionary analyses. Protein structures are three-dimensional data and the associated problems are structure prediction (secondary and tertiary), analysis of protein structures for clues regarding function, and structural alignment. Gene expression data is usually represented as matrices and analysis of microarray data mostly involves statistics analysis, classification, and clustering approaches. Biological networks such as gene regulatory networks, metabolic pathways, and protein-protein interaction networks are usually modeled as graphs and graph theoretic approaches are used to solve associated problems such as construction and analysis of large-scale networks.

Identifying currents in the gene pool for bacterial populations using an integrative approach.

PubMed

Tang, Jing; Hanage, William P; Fraser, Christophe; Corander, Jukka

2009-08-01

The evolution of bacterial populations has recently become considerably better understood due to large-scale sequencing of population samples. It has become clear that DNA sequences from a multitude of genes, as well as a broad sample coverage of a target population, are needed to obtain a relatively unbiased view of its genetic structure and the patterns of ancestry connected to the strains. However, the traditional statistical methods for evolutionary inference, such as phylogenetic analysis, are associated with several difficulties under such an extensive sampling scenario, in particular when a considerable amount of recombination is anticipated to have taken place. To meet the needs of large-scale analyses of population structure for bacteria, we introduce here several statistical tools for the detection and representation of recombination between populations. Also, we introduce a model-based description of the shape of a population in sequence space, in terms of its molecular variability and affinity towards other populations. Extensive real data from the genus Neisseria are utilized to demonstrate the potential of an approach where these population genetic tools are combined with an phylogenetic analysis. The statistical tools introduced here are freely available in BAPS 5.2 software, which can be downloaded from http://web.abo.fi/fak/mnf/mate/jc/software/baps.html.

Temporal variation and scale in movement-based resource selection functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, M.B.; Hanks, E.M.; Johnson, D.S.; Alldredge, M.W.

2013-01-01

A common population characteristic of interest in animal ecology studies pertains to the selection of resources. That is, given the resources available to animals, what do they ultimately choose to use? A variety of statistical approaches have been employed to examine this question and each has advantages and disadvantages with respect to the form of available data and the properties of estimators given model assumptions. A wealth of high resolution telemetry data are now being collected to study animal population movement and space use and these data present both challenges and opportunities for statistical inference. We summarize traditional methods for resource selection and then describe several extensions to deal with measurement uncertainty and an explicit movement process that exists in studies involving high-resolution telemetry data. Our approach uses a correlated random walk movement model to obtain temporally varying use and availability distributions that are employed in a weighted distribution context to estimate selection coefficients. The temporally varying coefficients are then weighted by their contribution to selection and combined to provide inference at the population level. The result is an intuitive and accessible statistical procedure that uses readily available software and is computationally feasible for large datasets. These methods are demonstrated using data collected as part of a large-scale mountain lion monitoring study in Colorado, USA.

The Population Tracking Model: A Simple, Scalable Statistical Model for Neural Population Data

PubMed Central

O'Donnell, Cian; alves, J. Tiago Gonç; Whiteley, Nick; Portera-Cailliau, Carlos; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

2017-01-01

Our understanding of neural population coding has been limited by a lack of analysis methods to characterize spiking data from large populations. The biggest challenge comes from the fact that the number of possible network activity patterns scales exponentially with the number of neurons recorded (∼2Neurons). Here we introduce a new statistical method for characterizing neural population activity that requires semi-independent fitting of only as many parameters as the square of the number of neurons, requiring drastically smaller data sets and minimal computation time. The model works by matching the population rate (the number of neurons synchronously active) and the probability that each individual neuron fires given the population rate. We found that this model can accurately fit synthetic data from up to 1000 neurons. We also found that the model could rapidly decode visual stimuli from neural population data from macaque primary visual cortex about 65 ms after stimulus onset. Finally, we used the model to estimate the entropy of neural population activity in developing mouse somatosensory cortex and, surprisingly, found that it first increases, and then decreases during development. This statistical model opens new options for interrogating neural population data and can bolster the use of modern large-scale in vivo Ca2+ and voltage imaging tools. PMID:27870612

Effect of Variable Spatial Scales on USLE-GIS Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, R. J.; Sharma, S. K.

2017-12-01

Use of appropriate spatial scale is very important in Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) based spatially distributed soil erosion modelling. This study aimed at assessment of annual rates of soil erosion at different spatial scales/grid sizes and analysing how changes in spatial scales affect USLE-GIS computations using simulation and statistical variabilities. Efforts have been made in this study to recommend an optimum spatial scale for further USLE-GIS computations for management and planning in the study area. The present research study was conducted in Shakkar River watershed, situated in Narsinghpur and Chhindwara districts of Madhya Pradesh, India. Remote Sensing and GIS techniques were integrated with Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) to predict spatial distribution of soil erosion in the study area at four different spatial scales viz; 30 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m. Rainfall data, soil map, digital elevation model (DEM) and an executable C++ program, and satellite image of the area were used for preparation of the thematic maps for various USLE factors. Annual rates of soil erosion were estimated for 15 years (1992 to 2006) at four different grid sizes. The statistical analysis of four estimated datasets showed that sediment loss dataset at 30 m spatial scale has a minimum standard deviation (2.16), variance (4.68), percent deviation from observed values (2.68 - 18.91 %), and highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.874) among all the four datasets. Thus, it is recommended to adopt this spatial scale for USLE-GIS computations in the study area due to its minimum statistical variability and better agreement with the observed sediment loss data. This study also indicates large scope for use of finer spatial scales in spatially distributed soil erosion modelling.

Statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions: A scaling paradigm applied to electroencephalography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingber, Lester

1991-09-01

A series of papers has developed a statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI), deriving aggregate behavior of experimentally observed columns of neurons from statistical electrical-chemical properties of synaptic interactions. While not useful to yield insights at the single-neuron level, SMNI has demonstrated its capability in describing large-scale properties of short-term memory and electroencephalographic (EEG) systematics. The necessity of including nonlinear and stochastic structures in this development has been stressed. In this paper, a more stringent test is placed on SMNI: The algebraic and numerical algorithms previously developed in this and similar systems are brought to bear to fit large sets of EEG and evoked-potential data being collected to investigate genetic predispositions to alcoholism and to extract brain ``signatures'' of short-term memory. Using the numerical algorithm of very fast simulated reannealing, it is demonstrated that SMNI can indeed fit these data within experimentally observed ranges of its underlying neuronal-synaptic parameters, and the quantitative modeling results are used to examine physical neocortical mechanisms to discriminate high-risk and low-risk populations genetically predisposed to alcoholism. Since this study is a control to span relatively long time epochs, similar to earlier attempts to establish such correlations, this discrimination is inconclusive because of other neuronal activity which can mask such effects. However, the SMNI model is shown to be consistent with EEG data during selective attention tasks and with neocortical mechanisms describing short-term memory previously published using this approach. This paper explicitly identifies similar nonlinear stochastic mechanisms of interaction at the microscopic-neuronal, mesoscopic-columnar, and macroscopic-regional scales of neocortical interactions. These results give strong quantitative support for an accurate intuitive picture, portraying neocortical interactions as having common algebraic or physics mechanisms that scale across quite disparate spatial scales and functional or behavioral phenomena, i.e., describing interactions among neurons, columns of neurons, and regional masses of neurons.

Methods, caveats and the future of large-scale microelectrode recordings in the non-human primate

PubMed Central

Dotson, Nicholas M.; Goodell, Baldwin; Salazar, Rodrigo F.; Hoffman, Steven J.; Gray, Charles M.

2015-01-01

Cognitive processes play out on massive brain-wide networks, which produce widely distributed patterns of activity. Capturing these activity patterns requires tools that are able to simultaneously measure activity from many distributed sites with high spatiotemporal resolution. Unfortunately, current techniques with adequate coverage do not provide the requisite spatiotemporal resolution. Large-scale microelectrode recording devices, with dozens to hundreds of microelectrodes capable of simultaneously recording from nearly as many cortical and subcortical areas, provide a potential way to minimize these tradeoffs. However, placing hundreds of microelectrodes into a behaving animal is a highly risky and technically challenging endeavor that has only been pursued by a few groups. Recording activity from multiple electrodes simultaneously also introduces several statistical and conceptual dilemmas, such as the multiple comparisons problem and the uncontrolled stimulus response problem. In this perspective article, we discuss some of the techniques that we, and others, have developed for collecting and analyzing large-scale data sets, and address the future of this emerging field. PMID:26578906

Periodic magnetorotational dynamo action as a prototype of nonlinear magnetic-field generation in shear flows.

PubMed

Herault, J; Rincon, F; Cossu, C; Lesur, G; Ogilvie, G I; Longaretti, P-Y

2011-09-01

The nature of dynamo action in shear flows prone to magnetohydrodynamc instabilities is investigated using the magnetorotational dynamo in Keplerian shear flow as a prototype problem. Using direct numerical simulations and Newton's method, we compute an exact time-periodic magnetorotational dynamo solution to three-dimensional dissipative incompressible magnetohydrodynamic equations with rotation and shear. We discuss the physical mechanism behind the cycle and show that it results from a combination of linear and nonlinear interactions between a large-scale axisymmetric toroidal magnetic field and nonaxisymmetric perturbations amplified by the magnetorotational instability. We demonstrate that this large-scale dynamo mechanism is overall intrinsically nonlinear and not reducible to the standard mean-field dynamo formalism. Our results therefore provide clear evidence for a generic nonlinear generation mechanism of time-dependent coherent large-scale magnetic fields in shear flows and call for new theoretical dynamo models. These findings may offer important clues to understanding the transitional and statistical properties of subcritical magnetorotational turbulence.

Effect of weak rotation on large-scale circulation cessations in turbulent convection.

PubMed

Assaf, Michael; Angheluta, Luiza; Goldenfeld, Nigel

2012-08-17

We investigate the effect of weak rotation on the large-scale circulation (LSC) of turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection, using the theory for cessations in a low-dimensional stochastic model of the flow previously studied. We determine the cessation frequency of the LSC as a function of rotation, and calculate the statistics of the amplitude and azimuthal velocity fluctuations of the LSC as a function of the rotation rate for different Rayleigh numbers. Furthermore, we show that the tails of the reorientation PDF remain unchanged for rotating systems, while the distribution of the LSC amplitude and correspondingly the cessation frequency are strongly affected by rotation. Our results are in close agreement with experimental observations.

Direct and inverse energy cascades in a forced rotating turbulence experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campagne, Antoine; Gallet, Basile; Moisy, Frédéric; Cortet, Pierre-Philippe

2014-12-01

We present experimental evidence for a double cascade of kinetic energy in a statistically stationary rotating turbulence experiment. Turbulence is generated by a set of vertical flaps, which continuously injects velocity fluctuations towards the center of a rotating water tank. The energy transfers are evaluated from two-point third-order three-component velocity structure functions, which we measure using stereoscopic particle image velocimetry in the rotating frame. Without global rotation, the energy is transferred from large to small scales, as in classical three-dimensional turbulence. For nonzero rotation rates, the horizontal kinetic energy presents a double cascade: a direct cascade at small horizontal scales and an inverse cascade at large horizontal scales. By contrast, the vertical kinetic energy is always transferred from large to small horizontal scales, a behavior reminiscent of the dynamics of a passive scalar in two-dimensional turbulence. At the largest rotation rate, the flow is nearly two-dimensional, and a pure inverse energy cascade is found for the horizontal energy. To describe the scale-by-scale energy budget, we consider a generalization of the Kármán-Howarth-Monin equation to inhomogeneous turbulent flows, in which the energy input is explicitly described as the advection of turbulent energy from the flaps through the surface of the control volume where the measurements are performed.

The changing landscape of astrostatistics and astroinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigelson, Eric D.

2017-06-01

The history and current status of the cross-disciplinary fields of astrostatistics and astroinformatics are reviewed. Astronomers need a wide range of statistical methods for both data reduction and science analysis. With the proliferation of high-throughput telescopes, efficient large scale computational methods are also becoming essential. However, astronomers receive only weak training in these fields during their formal education. Interest in the fields is rapidly growing with conferences organized by scholarly societies, textbooks and tutorial workshops, and research studies pushing the frontiers of methodology. R, the premier language of statistical computing, can provide an important software environment for the incorporation of advanced statistical and computational methodology into the astronomical community.

Conditional maximum-entropy method for selecting prior distributions in Bayesian statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Sumiyoshi

2014-11-01

The conditional maximum-entropy method (abbreviated here as C-MaxEnt) is formulated for selecting prior probability distributions in Bayesian statistics for parameter estimation. This method is inspired by a statistical-mechanical approach to systems governed by dynamics with largely separated time scales and is based on three key concepts: conjugate pairs of variables, dimensionless integration measures with coarse-graining factors and partial maximization of the joint entropy. The method enables one to calculate a prior purely from a likelihood in a simple way. It is shown, in particular, how it not only yields Jeffreys's rules but also reveals new structures hidden behind them.

Resonant soft X-ray scattering for polymer materials

DOE PAGES

Liu, Feng; Brady, Michael A.; Wang, Cheng

2016-04-16

Resonant Soft X-ray Scattering (RSoXS) was developed within the last few years, and the first dedicated resonant soft X-ray scattering beamline for soft materials was constructed at the Advanced Light Source, LBNL. RSoXS combines soft X-ray spectroscopy with X-ray scattering and thus offers statistical information for 3D chemical morphology over a large length scale range from nanometers to micrometers. Using RSoXS to characterize multi-length scale soft materials with heterogeneous chemical structures, we have demonstrated that soft X-ray scattering is a unique complementary technique to conventional hard X-ray and neutron scattering. Its unique chemical sensitivity, large accessible size scale, molecular bondmore » orientation sensitivity with polarized X-rays, and high coherence have shown great potential for chemically specific structural characterization for many classes of materials.« less

Spectral enstrophy budget in a shear-less flow with turbulent/non-turbulent interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cimarelli, Andrea; Cocconi, Giacomo; Frohnapfel, Bettina; De Angelis, Elisabetta

2015-12-01

A numerical analysis of the interaction between decaying shear free turbulence and quiescent fluid is performed by means of global statistical budgets of enstrophy, both, at the single-point and two point levels. The single-point enstrophy budget allows us to recognize three physically relevant layers: a bulk turbulent region, an inhomogeneous turbulent layer, and an interfacial layer. Within these layers, enstrophy is produced, transferred, and finally destroyed while leading to a propagation of the turbulent front. These processes do not only depend on the position in the flow field but are also strongly scale dependent. In order to tackle this multi-dimensional behaviour of enstrophy in the space of scales and in physical space, we analyse the spectral enstrophy budget equation. The picture consists of an inviscid spatial cascade of enstrophy from large to small scales parallel to the interface moving towards the interface. At the interface, this phenomenon breaks, leaving place to an anisotropic cascade where large scale structures exhibit only a cascade process normal to the interface thus reducing their thickness while retaining their lengths parallel to the interface. The observed behaviour could be relevant for both the theoretical and the modelling approaches to flow with interacting turbulent/nonturbulent regions. The scale properties of the turbulent propagation mechanisms highlight that the inviscid turbulent transport is a large-scale phenomenon. On the contrary, the viscous diffusion, commonly associated with small scale mechanisms, highlights a much richer physics involving small lengths, normal to the interface, but at the same time large scales, parallel to the interface.

Lagrangian and Eulerian statistics obtained from direct numerical simulations of homogeneous turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squires, Kyle D.; Eaton, John K.

1991-01-01

Direct numerical simulation is used to study dispersion in decaying isotropic turbulence and homogeneous shear flow. Both Lagrangian and Eulerian data are presented allowing direct comparison, but at fairly low Reynolds number. The quantities presented include properties of the dispersion tensor, isoprobability contours of particle displacement, Lagrangian and Eulerian velocity autocorrelations and time scale ratios, and the eddy diffusivity tensor. The Lagrangian time microscale is found to be consistently larger than the Eulerian microscale, presumably due to the advection of the small scales by the large scales in the Eulerian reference frame.

Scaling of the velocity fluctuations in turbulent channels up to Reτ=2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyas, Sergio; Jiménez, Javier

2006-01-01

A new numerical simulation of a turbulent channel in a large box at Reτ=2003 is described and briefly compared with simulations at lower Reynolds numbers and with experiments. Some of the fluctuation intensities, especially the streamwise velocity, do not scale well in wall units, both near and away from the wall. Spectral analysis traces the near-wall scaling failure to the interaction of the logarithmic layer with the wall. The present statistics can be downloaded from http://torroja.dmt.upm.es/ftp/channels. Further ones will be added to the site as they become available.

Large-scale fluctuations in the cosmic ionizing background: the impact of beamed source emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez, Teresita; Pontzen, Andrew

2017-12-01

When modelling the ionization of gas in the intergalactic medium after reionization, it is standard practice to assume a uniform radiation background. This assumption is not always appropriate; models with radiative transfer show that large-scale ionization rate fluctuations can have an observable impact on statistics of the Lyman α forest. We extend such calculations to include beaming of sources, which has previously been neglected but which is expected to be important if quasars dominate the ionizing photon budget. Beaming has two effects: first, the physical number density of ionizing sources is enhanced relative to that directly observed; and secondly, the radiative transfer itself is altered. We calculate both effects in a hard-edged beaming model where each source has a random orientation, using an equilibrium Boltzmann hierarchy in terms of spherical harmonics. By studying the statistical properties of the resulting ionization rate and H I density fields at redshift z ∼ 2.3, we find that the two effects partially cancel each other; combined, they constitute a maximum 5 per cent correction to the power spectrum P_{H I}(k) at k = 0.04 h Mpc-1. On very large scales (k < 0.01 h Mpc-1) the source density renormalization dominates; it can reduce, by an order of magnitude, the contribution of ionizing shot noise to the intergalactic H I power spectrum. The effects of beaming should be considered when interpreting future observational data sets.

Characterization of Sound Radiation by Unresolved Scales of Motion in Computational Aeroacoustics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubinstein, Robert; Zhou, Ye

1999-01-01

Evaluation of the sound sources in a high Reynolds number turbulent flow requires time-accurate resolution of an extremely large number of scales of motion. Direct numerical simulations will therefore remain infeasible for the forseeable future: although current large eddy simulation methods can resolve the largest scales of motion accurately the, they must leave some scales of motion unresolved. A priori studies show that acoustic power can be underestimated significantly if the contribution of these unresolved scales is simply neglected. In this paper, the problem of evaluating the sound radiation properties of the unresolved, subgrid-scale motions is approached in the spirit of the simplest subgrid stress models: the unresolved velocity field is treated as isotropic turbulence with statistical descriptors, evaluated from the resolved field. The theory of isotropic turbulence is applied to derive formulas for the total power and the power spectral density of the sound radiated by a filtered velocity field. These quantities are compared with the corresponding quantities for the unfiltered field for a range of filter widths and Reynolds numbers.

Experimental Study of the Effect of the Initial Spectrum Width on the Statistics of Random Wave Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shemer, L.; Sergeeva, A.

2009-12-01

The statistics of random water wave field determines the probability of appearance of extremely high (freak) waves. This probability is strongly related to the spectral wave field characteristics. Laboratory investigation of the spatial variation of the random wave-field statistics for various initial conditions is thus of substantial practical importance. Unidirectional nonlinear random wave groups are investigated experimentally in the 300 m long Large Wave Channel (GWK) in Hannover, Germany, which is the biggest facility of its kind in Europe. Numerous realizations of a wave field with the prescribed frequency power spectrum, yet randomly-distributed initial phases of each harmonic, were generated by a computer-controlled piston-type wavemaker. Several initial spectral shapes with identical dominant wave length but different width were considered. For each spectral shape, the total duration of sampling in all realizations was long enough to yield sufficient sample size for reliable statistics. Through all experiments, an effort had been made to retain the characteristic wave height value and thus the degree of nonlinearity of the wave field. Spatial evolution of numerous statistical wave field parameters (skewness, kurtosis and probability distributions) is studied using about 25 wave gauges distributed along the tank. It is found that, depending on the initial spectral shape, the frequency spectrum of the wave field may undergo significant modification in the course of its evolution along the tank; the values of all statistical wave parameters are strongly related to the local spectral width. A sample of the measured wave height probability functions (scaled by the variance of surface elevation) is plotted in Fig. 1 for the initially narrow rectangular spectrum. The results in Fig. 1 resemble findings obtained in [1] for the initial Gaussian spectral shape. The probability of large waves notably surpasses that predicted by the Rayleigh distribution and is the highest at the distance of about 100 m. Acknowledgement This study is carried out in the framework of the EC supported project "Transnational access to large-scale tests in the Large Wave Channel (GWK) of Forschungszentrum Küste (Contract HYDRALAB III - No. 022441). [1] L. Shemer and A. Sergeeva, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 114, C01015 (2009). Figure 1. Variation along the tank of the measured wave height distribution for rectangular initial spectral shape, the carrier wave period T0=1.5 s.

Statistical Approach To Estimate Vaccinia-Specific Neutralizing Antibody Titers Using a High-Throughput Assay▿

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Richard; Pankratz, V. Shane; Swanson, Eric; Watson, David; Golding, Hana; Poland, Gregory A.

2009-01-01

Because of the bioterrorism threat posed by agents such as variola virus, considerable time, resources, and effort have been devoted to biodefense preparation. One avenue of this research has been the development of rapid, sensitive, high-throughput assays to validate immune responses to poxviruses. Here we describe the adaptation of a β-galactosidase reporter-based vaccinia virus neutralization assay to large-scale use in a study that included over 1,000 subjects. We also describe the statistical methods involved in analyzing the large quantity of data generated. The assay and its associated methods should prove useful tools in monitoring immune responses to next-generation smallpox vaccines, studying poxvirus immunity, and evaluating therapeutic agents such as vaccinia virus immune globulin. PMID:19535540

Simulating Metabolism with Statistical Thermodynamics

PubMed Central

Cannon, William R.

2014-01-01

New methods are needed for large scale modeling of metabolism that predict metabolite levels and characterize the thermodynamics of individual reactions and pathways. Current approaches use either kinetic simulations, which are difficult to extend to large networks of reactions because of the need for rate constants, or flux-based methods, which have a large number of feasible solutions because they are unconstrained by the law of mass action. This report presents an alternative modeling approach based on statistical thermodynamics. The principles of this approach are demonstrated using a simple set of coupled reactions, and then the system is characterized with respect to the changes in energy, entropy, free energy, and entropy production. Finally, the physical and biochemical insights that this approach can provide for metabolism are demonstrated by application to the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle of Escherichia coli. The reaction and pathway thermodynamics are evaluated and predictions are made regarding changes in concentration of TCA cycle intermediates due to 10- and 100-fold changes in the ratio of NAD+:NADH concentrations. Finally, the assumptions and caveats regarding the use of statistical thermodynamics to model non-equilibrium reactions are discussed. PMID:25089525

Simulating metabolism with statistical thermodynamics.

PubMed

Cannon, William R

2014-01-01

New methods are needed for large scale modeling of metabolism that predict metabolite levels and characterize the thermodynamics of individual reactions and pathways. Current approaches use either kinetic simulations, which are difficult to extend to large networks of reactions because of the need for rate constants, or flux-based methods, which have a large number of feasible solutions because they are unconstrained by the law of mass action. This report presents an alternative modeling approach based on statistical thermodynamics. The principles of this approach are demonstrated using a simple set of coupled reactions, and then the system is characterized with respect to the changes in energy, entropy, free energy, and entropy production. Finally, the physical and biochemical insights that this approach can provide for metabolism are demonstrated by application to the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle of Escherichia coli. The reaction and pathway thermodynamics are evaluated and predictions are made regarding changes in concentration of TCA cycle intermediates due to 10- and 100-fold changes in the ratio of NAD+:NADH concentrations. Finally, the assumptions and caveats regarding the use of statistical thermodynamics to model non-equilibrium reactions are discussed.

Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-06-01

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q . The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes.

PubMed

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-06-01

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q. The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

The Observations of Redshift Evolution in Large Scale Environments (ORELSE) Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squires, Gordon K.; Lubin, L. M.; Gal, R. R.

2007-05-01

We present the motivation, design, and latest results from the Observations of Redshift Evolution in Large Scale Environments (ORELSE) Survey, a systematic search for structure on scales greater than 10 Mpc around 20 known galaxy clusters at z > 0.6. When complete, the survey will cover nearly 5 square degrees, all targeted at high-density regions, making it complementary and comparable to field surveys such as DEEP2, GOODS, and COSMOS. For the survey, we are using the Large Format Camera on the Palomar 5-m and SuPRIME-Cam on the Subaru 8-m to obtain optical/near-infrared imaging of an approximately 30 arcmin region around previously studied high-redshift clusters. Colors are used to identify likely member galaxies which are targeted for follow-up spectroscopy with the DEep Imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph on the Keck 10-m. This technique has been used to identify successfully the Cl 1604 supercluster at z = 0.9, a large scale structure containing at least eight clusters (Gal & Lubin 2004; Gal, Lubin & Squires 2005). We present the most recent structures to be photometrically and spectroscopically confirmed through this program, discuss the properties of the member galaxies as a function of environment, and describe our planned multi-wavelength (radio, mid-IR, and X-ray) observations of these systems. The goal of this survey is to identify and examine a statistical sample of large scale structures during an active period in the assembly history of the most massive clusters. With such a sample, we can begin to constrain large scale cluster dynamics and determine the effect of the larger environment on galaxy evolution.

Evaluation of Large-scale Data to Detect Irregularity in Payment for Medical Services. An Extended Use of Benford's Law.

PubMed

Park, Junghyun A; Kim, Minki; Yoon, Seokjoon

2016-05-17

Sophisticated anti-fraud systems for the healthcare sector have been built based on several statistical methods. Although existing methods have been developed to detect fraud in the healthcare sector, these algorithms consume considerable time and cost, and lack a theoretical basis to handle large-scale data. Based on mathematical theory, this study proposes a new approach to using Benford's Law in that we closely examined the individual-level data to identify specific fees for in-depth analysis. We extended the mathematical theory to demonstrate the manner in which large-scale data conform to Benford's Law. Then, we empirically tested its applicability using actual large-scale healthcare data from Korea's Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) National Patient Sample (NPS). For Benford's Law, we considered the mean absolute deviation (MAD) formula to test the large-scale data. We conducted our study on 32 diseases, comprising 25 representative diseases and 7 DRG-regulated diseases. We performed an empirical test on 25 diseases, showing the applicability of Benford's Law to large-scale data in the healthcare industry. For the seven DRG-regulated diseases, we examined the individual-level data to identify specific fees to carry out an in-depth analysis. Among the eight categories of medical costs, we considered the strength of certain irregularities based on the details of each DRG-regulated disease. Using the degree of abnormality, we propose priority action to be taken by government health departments and private insurance institutions to bring unnecessary medical expenses under control. However, when we detect deviations from Benford's Law, relatively high contamination ratios are required at conventional significance levels.

The birth of gravitational evolutionary dynamics of stellar systems (from Th. Wright to W. Herschel).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eremeeva, A. J.

1995-05-01

Th. Wright, I. Kant and I. H. Lambert used well-known ideas about the structure and dynamics of the Solar system as a basis of their concepts of the stellar Universe. W. Herschel discovered the main features of the true, non-hierarchical large-scale structure of the Universe. He was also a pioneer of stellar dynamics with its new statistical laws and also of the theory of dynamical evolution in stellar systems at different scales.

The Effects of Run-of-River Hydroelectric Power Schemes on Fish Community Composition in Temperate Streams and Rivers

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The potential environmental impacts of large-scale storage hydroelectric power (HEP) schemes have been well-documented in the literature. In Europe, awareness of these potential impacts and limited opportunities for politically-acceptable medium- to large-scale schemes, have caused attention to focus on smaller-scale HEP schemes, particularly run-of-river (ROR) schemes, to contribute to meeting renewable energy targets. Run-of-river HEP schemes are often presumed to be less environmentally damaging than large-scale storage HEP schemes. However, there is currently a lack of peer-reviewed studies on their physical and ecological impact. The aim of this article was to investigate the effects of ROR HEP schemes on communities of fish in temperate streams and rivers, using a Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) study design. The study makes use of routine environmental surveillance data collected as part of long-term national and international monitoring programmes at 23 systematically-selected ROR HEP schemes and 23 systematically-selected paired control sites. Six area-normalised metrics of fish community composition were analysed using a linear mixed effects model (number of species, number of fish, number of Atlantic salmon—Salmo salar, number of >1 year old Atlantic salmon, number of brown trout—Salmo trutta, and number of >1 year old brown trout). The analyses showed that there was a statistically significant effect (p<0.05) of ROR HEP construction and operation on the number of species. However, no statistically significant effects were detected on the other five metrics of community composition. The implications of these findings are discussed in this article and recommendations are made for best-practice study design for future fish community impact studies. PMID:27191717

Low-Complexity Polynomial Channel Estimation in Large-Scale MIMO With Arbitrary Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shariati, Nafiseh; Bjornson, Emil; Bengtsson, Mats; Debbah, Merouane

2014-10-01

This paper considers pilot-based channel estimation in large-scale multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems, also known as massive MIMO, where there are hundreds of antennas at one side of the link. Motivated by the fact that computational complexity is one of the main challenges in such systems, a set of low-complexity Bayesian channel estimators, coined Polynomial ExpAnsion CHannel (PEACH) estimators, are introduced for arbitrary channel and interference statistics. While the conventional minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimator has cubic complexity in the dimension of the covariance matrices, due to an inversion operation, our proposed estimators significantly reduce this to square complexity by approximating the inverse by a L-degree matrix polynomial. The coefficients of the polynomial are optimized to minimize the mean square error (MSE) of the estimate. We show numerically that near-optimal MSEs are achieved with low polynomial degrees. We also derive the exact computational complexity of the proposed estimators, in terms of the floating-point operations (FLOPs), by which we prove that the proposed estimators outperform the conventional estimators in large-scale MIMO systems of practical dimensions while providing a reasonable MSEs. Moreover, we show that L needs not scale with the system dimensions to maintain a certain normalized MSE. By analyzing different interference scenarios, we observe that the relative MSE loss of using the low-complexity PEACH estimators is smaller in realistic scenarios with pilot contamination. On the other hand, PEACH estimators are not well suited for noise-limited scenarios with high pilot power; therefore, we also introduce the low-complexity diagonalized estimator that performs well in this regime. Finally, we ...

The Effects of Run-of-River Hydroelectric Power Schemes on Fish Community Composition in Temperate Streams and Rivers.

PubMed

Bilotta, Gary S; Burnside, Niall G; Gray, Jeremy C; Orr, Harriet G

2016-01-01

The potential environmental impacts of large-scale storage hydroelectric power (HEP) schemes have been well-documented in the literature. In Europe, awareness of these potential impacts and limited opportunities for politically-acceptable medium- to large-scale schemes, have caused attention to focus on smaller-scale HEP schemes, particularly run-of-river (ROR) schemes, to contribute to meeting renewable energy targets. Run-of-river HEP schemes are often presumed to be less environmentally damaging than large-scale storage HEP schemes. However, there is currently a lack of peer-reviewed studies on their physical and ecological impact. The aim of this article was to investigate the effects of ROR HEP schemes on communities of fish in temperate streams and rivers, using a Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) study design. The study makes use of routine environmental surveillance data collected as part of long-term national and international monitoring programmes at 23 systematically-selected ROR HEP schemes and 23 systematically-selected paired control sites. Six area-normalised metrics of fish community composition were analysed using a linear mixed effects model (number of species, number of fish, number of Atlantic salmon-Salmo salar, number of >1 year old Atlantic salmon, number of brown trout-Salmo trutta, and number of >1 year old brown trout). The analyses showed that there was a statistically significant effect (p<0.05) of ROR HEP construction and operation on the number of species. However, no statistically significant effects were detected on the other five metrics of community composition. The implications of these findings are discussed in this article and recommendations are made for best-practice study design for future fish community impact studies.

A Large-Scale Super-Structure at z=0.65 in the UKIDSS Ultra-Deep Survey Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galametz, Audrey; Candels Clustering Working Group

2017-07-01

In hierarchical structure formation scenarios, galaxies accrete along high density filaments. Superclusters represent the largest density enhancements in the cosmic web with scales of 100 to 200 Mpc. As they represent the largest components of LSS, they are very powerful tools to constrain cosmological models. Since they also offer a wide range of density, from infalling group to high density cluster core, they are also the perfect laboratory to study the influence of environment on galaxy evolution. I will present a newly discovered large scale structure at z=0.65 in the UKIDSS UDS field. Although statistically predicted, the presence of such structure in UKIDSS, one of the most extensively covered and studied extragalactic field, remains a serendipity. Our follow-up confirmed more than 15 group members including at least three galaxy clusters with M200 10^14Msol . Deep spectroscopy of the quiescent core galaxies reveals that the most massive structure knots are at very different formation stage with a range of red sequence properties. Statistics allow us to map formation age across the structure denser knots and identify where quenching is most probably occurring across the LSS. Spectral diagnostics analysis also reveals an interesting population of transition galaxies we suspect are transforming from star-forming to quiescent galaxies.

Discrete Scale Invariance of Human Large EEG Voltage Deflections is More Prominent in Waking than Sleep Stage 2.

PubMed

Zorick, Todd; Mandelkern, Mark A

2015-01-01

Electroencephalography (EEG) is typically viewed through the lens of spectral analysis. Recently, multiple lines of evidence have demonstrated that the underlying neuronal dynamics are characterized by scale-free avalanches. These results suggest that techniques from statistical physics may be used to analyze EEG signals. We utilized a publicly available database of fourteen subjects with waking and sleep stage 2 EEG tracings per subject, and observe that power-law dynamics of critical-state neuronal avalanches are not sufficient to fully describe essential features of EEG signals. We hypothesized that this could reflect the phenomenon of discrete scale invariance (DSI) in EEG large voltage deflections (LVDs) as being more prominent in waking consciousness. We isolated LVDs, and analyzed logarithmically transformed LVD size probability density functions (PDF) to assess for DSI. We find evidence of increased DSI in waking, as opposed to sleep stage 2 consciousness. We also show that the signatures of DSI are specific for EEG LVDs, and not a general feature of fractal simulations with similar statistical properties to EEG. Removing only LVDs from waking EEG produces a reduction in power in the alpha and beta frequency bands. These findings may represent a new insight into the understanding of the cortical dynamics underlying consciousness.

Energetics of subdomain movements and fluorescence probe solvation environment change in ATP-bound myosin.

PubMed

Harris, Michael J; Woo, Hyung-June

2008-11-01

Energetics of conformational changes experienced by an ATP-bound myosin head detached from actin was studied by all-atom explicit water umbrella sampling simulations. The statistics of coupling between large scale domain movements and smaller scale structural features were examined, including the closing of the ATP binding pocket, and a number of key hydrogen bond formations shown to play roles in structural and biochemical studies. The statistics for the ATP binding pocket open/close transition show an evolution of the relative stability from the open state in the early stages of the recovery stroke to the stable closed state after the stroke. The change in solvation environment of the fluorescence probe Trp507 (scallop numbering; 501 in Dictyostelium discoideum) indicates that the probe faithfully reflects the closing of the binding pocket as previously shown in experimental studies, while being directly coupled to roughly the early half of the overall large scale conformational change of the converter domain rotation. The free energy change of this solvation environment change, in particular, is -1.3 kcal/mol, in close agreement with experimental estimates. In addition, our results provide direct molecular level data allowing for interpretations of the fluorescence experiments of myosin conformational change in terms of the de-solvation of Trp side chain.

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Statistical genetics concepts and approaches in schizophrenia and related neuropsychiatric research.

PubMed

Schork, Nicholas J; Greenwood, Tiffany A; Braff, David L

2007-01-01

Statistical genetics is a research field that focuses on mathematical models and statistical inference methodologies that relate genetic variations (ie, naturally occurring human DNA sequence variations or "polymorphisms") to particular traits or diseases (phenotypes) usually from data collected on large samples of families or individuals. The ultimate goal of such analysis is the identification of genes and genetic variations that influence disease susceptibility. Although of extreme interest and importance, the fact that many genes and environmental factors contribute to neuropsychiatric diseases of public health importance (eg, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and depression) complicates relevant studies and suggests that very sophisticated mathematical and statistical modeling may be required. In addition, large-scale contemporary human DNA sequencing and related projects, such as the Human Genome Project and the International HapMap Project, as well as the development of high-throughput DNA sequencing and genotyping technologies have provided statistical geneticists with a great deal of very relevant and appropriate information and resources. Unfortunately, the use of these resources and their interpretation are not straightforward when applied to complex, multifactorial diseases such as schizophrenia. In this brief and largely nonmathematical review of the field of statistical genetics, we describe many of the main concepts, definitions, and issues that motivate contemporary research. We also provide a discussion of the most pressing contemporary problems that demand further research if progress is to be made in the identification of genes and genetic variations that predispose to complex neuropsychiatric diseases.

Large-scale circulation patterns, instability factors and global precipitation modeling as influenced by external forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundel, A.; Kulikova, I.; Kruglova, E.; Muravev, A.

2003-04-01

The scope of the study is to estimate the relationship between large-scale circulation regimes, various instability indices and global precipitation with different boundary conditions, considered as external forcing. The experiments were carried out in the ensemble-prediction framework of the dynamic-statistical monthly forecast scheme run in the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia every ten days. The extension to seasonal intervals makes it necessary to investigate the role of slowly changing boundary conditions among which the sea surface temperature (SST) may be defined as the most effective factor. Continuous integrations of the global spectral T41L15 model for the whole year 2000 (starting from January 1) were performed with the climatic SST and the Reynolds Archive SSTs. Monthly values of the SST were projected on the year days using spline interpolation technique. First, the global precipitation values in experiments were compared to the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climate Program) daily observation data. Although the global mean precipitation is underestimated by the model, some large-scale regional amounts correspond to the real ones (e.g. for Europe) fairly well. On the whole, however, anomaly phases failed to be reproduced. The precipitation averaged over the whole land revealed a greater sensitivity to the SSTs than that over the oceans. The wavelet analysis was applied to separate the low- and high-frequency signal of the SST influence on the large-scale circulation and precipitation. A derivative of the Wallace-Gutzler teleconnection index for the East-Atlantic oscillation was taken as the circulation characteristic. The daily oscillation index values and precipitation amounts averaged over Europe were decomposed using wavelet approach with different “mother wavelets” up to approximation level 3. It was demonstrated that an increase in the precipitation amount over Europe was associated with the zonal flow intensification over the Northern Atlantic when the real SSTs were used. Blocking structures in the circulation caused decreasing precipitation amounts. The wavelet approach gave a more distinctive discrimination in the modeled circulation and precipitation patterns versus different external forcing than a number of other statistical techniques. Several atmospheric instability indices (e.g. the Phillips like parameters, Richardson number etc) were additionally used in post-processing for a more detailed validation of the modeled large-scale and total precipitation amounts. It was shown that a reasonable variety of instability indices must be used for such validations and for precipitation output corrections. Their statistical stability may be substantiated only on the ensemble modeling basis. This work was performed with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (02-05-64655).

The topology of large-scale structure. VI - Slices of the universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Changbom; Gott, J. R., III; Melott, Adrian L.; Karachentsev, I. D.

1992-03-01

Results of an investigation of the topology of large-scale structure in two observed slices of the universe are presented. Both slices pass through the Coma cluster and their depths are 100 and 230/h Mpc. The present topology study shows that the largest void in the CfA slice is divided into two smaller voids by a statistically significant line of galaxies. The topology of toy models like the white noise and bubble models is shown to be inconsistent with that of the observed slices. A large N-body simulation was made of the biased cloud dark matter model and the slices are simulated by matching them in selection functions and boundary conditions. The genus curves for these simulated slices are spongelike and have a small shift in the direction of a meatball topology like those of observed slices.

The topology of large-scale structure. VI - Slices of the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Changbom; Gott, J. R., III; Melott, Adrian L.; Karachentsev, I. D.

1992-01-01

Results of an investigation of the topology of large-scale structure in two observed slices of the universe are presented. Both slices pass through the Coma cluster and their depths are 100 and 230/h Mpc. The present topology study shows that the largest void in the CfA slice is divided into two smaller voids by a statistically significant line of galaxies. The topology of toy models like the white noise and bubble models is shown to be inconsistent with that of the observed slices. A large N-body simulation was made of the biased cloud dark matter model and the slices are simulated by matching them in selection functions and boundary conditions. The genus curves for these simulated slices are spongelike and have a small shift in the direction of a meatball topology like those of observed slices.

Galaxies and large scale structure at high redshifts

PubMed Central

Steidel, Charles C.

1998-01-01

It is now straightforward to assemble large samples of very high redshift (z ∼ 3) field galaxies selected by their pronounced spectral discontinuity at the rest frame Lyman limit of hydrogen (at 912 Å). This makes possible both statistical analyses of the properties of the galaxies and the first direct glimpse of the progression of the growth of their large-scale distribution at such an early epoch. Here I present a summary of the progress made in these areas to date and some preliminary results of and future plans for a targeted redshift survey at z = 2.7–3.4. Also discussed is how the same discovery method may be used to obtain a “census” of star formation in the high redshift Universe, and the current implications for the history of galaxy formation as a function of cosmic epoch. PMID:9419319

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steed, Chad Allen

EDENx is a multivariate data visualization tool that allows interactive user driven analysis of large-scale data sets with high dimensionality. EDENx builds on our earlier system, called EDEN to enable analysis of more dimensions and larger scale data sets. EDENx provides an initial overview of summary statistics for each variable in the data set under investigation. EDENx allows the user to interact with graphical summary plots of the data to investigate subsets and their statistical associations. These plots include histograms, binned scatterplots, binned parallel coordinate plots, timeline plots, and graphical correlation indicators. From the EDENx interface, a user can selectmore » a subsample of interest and launch a more detailed data visualization via the EDEN system. EDENx is best suited for high-level, aggregate analysis tasks while EDEN is more appropriate for detail data investigations.« less

Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

Downscaling of water withdrawals from regional/national to local scale is a fundamental step and also a common problem when integrating large scale economic and integrated assessment models with high-resolution detailed sectoral models. Tethys, an open-access software written in Python, is developed with statistical downscaling algorithms, to spatially and temporally downscale water withdrawal data to a finer scale. The spatial resolution will be downscaled from region/basin scale to grid (0.5 geographic degree) scale and the temporal resolution will be downscaled from year to month. Tethys is used to produce monthly global gridded water withdrawal products based on estimates from the Globalmore » Change Assessment Model (GCAM).« less

Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2018-02-09

Downscaling of water withdrawals from regional/national to local scale is a fundamental step and also a common problem when integrating large scale economic and integrated assessment models with high-resolution detailed sectoral models. Tethys, an open-access software written in Python, is developed with statistical downscaling algorithms, to spatially and temporally downscale water withdrawal data to a finer scale. The spatial resolution will be downscaled from region/basin scale to grid (0.5 geographic degree) scale and the temporal resolution will be downscaled from year to month. Tethys is used to produce monthly global gridded water withdrawal products based on estimates from the Globalmore » Change Assessment Model (GCAM).« less

Autoregressive statistical pattern recognition algorithms for damage detection in civil structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Ruigen; Pakzad, Shamim N.

2012-08-01

Statistical pattern recognition has recently emerged as a promising set of complementary methods to system identification for automatic structural damage assessment. Its essence is to use well-known concepts in statistics for boundary definition of different pattern classes, such as those for damaged and undamaged structures. In this paper, several statistical pattern recognition algorithms using autoregressive models, including statistical control charts and hypothesis testing, are reviewed as potentially competitive damage detection techniques. To enhance the performance of statistical methods, new feature extraction techniques using model spectra and residual autocorrelation, together with resampling-based threshold construction methods, are proposed. Subsequently, simulated acceleration data from a multi degree-of-freedom system is generated to test and compare the efficiency of the existing and proposed algorithms. Data from laboratory experiments conducted on a truss and a large-scale bridge slab model are then used to further validate the damage detection methods and demonstrate the superior performance of proposed algorithms.

Contribution of large-scale forest inventories to biodiversity assessment and monitoring

Treesearch

Piermaria Corona; Gherardo Chirici; Ronald E. McRoberts; Susanne Winter; Anna Barbati

2011-01-01

Statistically-designed inventories and biodiversity monitoring programs are gaining relevance for biological conservation and natural resources management. Mandated periodic surveys provide unique opportunities to identify and satisfy natural resources management information needs. However, this is not an end in itself but rather is the beginning of a process that...

Advantages of Social Network Analysis in Educational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ushakov, K. M.; Kukso, K. N.

2015-01-01

Currently one of the main tools for the large scale studies of schools is statistical analysis. Although it is the most common method and it offers greatest opportunities for analysis, there are other quantitative methods for studying schools, such as network analysis. We discuss the potential advantages that network analysis has for educational…

A Strong Future for Public Library Use and Employment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Jose-Marie; King, Donald W.

2011-01-01

The latest and most comprehensive assessment of public librarians' education and career paths to date, this important volume reports on a large-scale research project performed by authors Jose-Marie Griffiths and Donald W. King. Presented in collaboration with the Office for Research and Statistics (ORS), the book includes an examination of trends…

On Predictability of System Anomalies in Real World

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

distributed system SETI @home [44]. Different from the above work, this work focuses on quantifying the predictability of real-world system anomalies. V...J.-M. Vincent, and D. Anderson, “Mining for statistical models of availability in large-scale distributed systems: An empirical study of seti @home,” in Proc. of MASCOTS, sept. 2009.

Quality Assessments of Long-Term Quantitative Proteomic Analysis of Breast Cancer Xenograft Tissues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Jian-Ying; Chen, Lijun; Zhang, Bai

The identification of protein biomarkers requires large-scale analysis of human specimens to achieve statistical significance. In this study, we evaluated the long-term reproducibility of an iTRAQ (isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification) based quantitative proteomics strategy using one channel for universal normalization across all samples. A total of 307 liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometric (LC-MS/MS) analyses were completed, generating 107 one-dimensional (1D) LC-MS/MS datasets and 8 offline two-dimensional (2D) LC-MS/MS datasets (25 fractions for each set) for human-in-mouse breast cancer xenograft tissues representative of basal and luminal subtypes. Such large-scale studies require the implementation of robust metrics to assessmore » the contributions of technical and biological variability in the qualitative and quantitative data. Accordingly, we developed a quantification confidence score based on the quality of each peptide-spectrum match (PSM) to remove quantification outliers from each analysis. After combining confidence score filtering and statistical analysis, reproducible protein identification and quantitative results were achieved from LC-MS/MS datasets collected over a 16 month period.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaidheeswaran, Avinash; Shaffer, Franklin; Gopalan, Balaji

Here, the statistics of fluctuating velocity components are studied in the riser of a closed-loop circulating fluidized bed with fluid catalytic cracking catalyst particles. Our analysis shows distinct similarities as well as deviations compared to existing theories and bench-scale experiments. The study confirms anisotropic and non-Maxwellian distribution of fluctuating velocity components. The velocity distribution functions (VDFs) corresponding to transverse fluctuations exhibit symmetry, and follow a stretched-exponential behavior up to three standard deviations. The form of the transverse VDF is largely determined by interparticle interactions. The tails become more overpopulated with an increase in particle loading. The observed deviations from themore » Gaussian distribution are represented using the leading order term in the Sonine expansion, which is commonly used to approximate the VDFs in kinetic theory for granular flows. The vertical fluctuating VDFs are asymmetric and the skewness shifts as the wall is approached. In comparison to transverse fluctuations, the vertical VDF is determined by the local hydrodynamics. This is an observation of particle velocity fluctuations in a large-scale system and their quantitative comparison with the Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics.« less

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

Overdamped large-eddy simulations of turbulent pipe flow up to Reτ = 1500

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldmann, Daniel; Avila, Marc

2018-04-01

We present results from large-eddy simulations (LES) of turbulent pipe flow in a computational domain of 42 radii in length. Wide ranges of shear the Reynolds number and Smagorinsky model parameter are covered, 180 ≤ Reτ ≤ 1500 and 0.05 ≤ Cs ≤ 1.2, respectively. The aim is to asses the effect of Cs on the resolved flow field and turbulence statistics as well as to test whether very large scale motions (VLSM) in pipe flow can be isolated from the near-wall cycle by enhancing the dissipative character of the static Smagorinsky model with elevated Cs values. We found that the optimal Cs to achieve best agreement with reference data varies with Reτ and further depends on the wall normal location and the quantity of interest. Furthermore, for increasing Reτ , the optimal Cs for pipe flow LES seems to approach the theoretically optimal value for LES of isotropic turbulence. In agreement with previous studies, we found that for increasing Cs small-scale streaks in simple flow field visualisations are gradually quenched and replaced by much larger smooth streaks. Our analysis of low-order turbulence statistics suggests, that these structures originate from an effective reduction of the Reynolds number and thus represent modified low-Reynolds number near-wall streaks rather than VLSM. We argue that overdamped LES with the static Smagorinsky model cannot be used to unambiguously determine the origin and the dynamics of VLSM in pipe flow. The approach might be salvaged by e.g. using more sophisticated LES models accounting for energy flux towards large scales or explicit anisotropic filter kernels.

Investigating large-scale secondary circulations within impact crater topographies in a refractive index-matched facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blois, Gianluca; Kim, Taehoon; Bristow, Nathan; Day, Mackenzie; Kocurek, Gary; Anderson, William; Christensen, Kenneth

2017-11-01

Impact craters, common large-scale topographic features on the surface of Mars, are circular depressions delimited by a sharp ridge. A variety of crater fill morphologies exist, suggesting that complex intracrater circulations affect their evolution. Some large craters (diameter >10 km), particularly at mid latitudes on Mars, exhibit a central mound surrounded by circular moat. Foremost among these examples is Gale crater, landing site of NASA's Curiosity rover, since large-scale climatic processes early in in the history of Mars are preserved in the stratigraphic record of the inner mound. Investigating the intracrater flow produced by large scale winds aloft Mars craters is key to a number of important scientific issues including ongoing research on Mars paleo-environmental reconstruction and the planning of future missions (these results must be viewed in conjunction with the affects of radial katabatibc flows, the importance of which is already established in preceding studies). In this work we consider a number of crater shapes inspired by Gale morphology, including idealized craters. Access to the flow field within such geometrically complex topography is achieved herein using a refractive index matched approach. Instantaneous velocity maps, using both planar and volumetric PIV techniques, are presented to elucidate complex three-dimensional flow within the crater. In addition, first- and second-order statistics will be discussed in the context of wind-driven (aeolian) excavation of crater fill.

How Can the Evidence from Global Large-scale Clinical Trials for Cardiovascular Diseases be Improved?

PubMed

Sawata, Hiroshi; Tsutani, Kiichiro

2011-06-29

Clinical investigations are important for obtaining evidence to improve medical treatment. Large-scale clinical trials with thousands of participants are particularly important for this purpose in cardiovascular diseases. Conducting large-scale clinical trials entails high research costs. This study sought to investigate global trends in large-scale clinical trials in cardiovascular diseases. We searched for trials using clinicaltrials.gov (URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/) using the key words 'cardio' and 'event' in all fields on 10 April, 2010. We then selected trials with 300 or more participants examining cardiovascular diseases. The search revealed 344 trials that met our criteria. Of 344 trials, 71% were randomized controlled trials, 15% involved more than 10,000 participants, and 59% were funded by industry. In RCTs whose results were disclosed, 55% of industry-funded trials and 25% of non-industry funded trials reported statistically significant superiority over control (p = 0.012, 2-sided Fisher's exact test). Our findings highlighted concerns regarding potential bias related to funding sources, and that researchers should be aware of the importance of trial information disclosures and conflicts of interest. We should keep considering management and training regarding information disclosures and conflicts of interest for researchers. This could lead to better clinical evidence and further improvements in the development of medical treatment worldwide.

Screening for depression in arthritis populations: an assessment of differential item functioning in three self-reported questionnaires.

PubMed

Hu, Jinxiang; Ward, Michael M

2017-09-01

To determine if persons with arthritis differ systematically from persons without arthritis in how they respond to questions on three depression questionnaires, which include somatic items such as fatigue and sleep disturbance. We extracted data on the Centers for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale, the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and the Kessler-6 (K-6) scale from three large population-based national surveys. We assessed items on these questionnaires for differential item functioning (DIF) between persons with and without self-reported physician-diagnosed arthritis using multiple indicator multiple cause models, which controlled for the underlying level of depression and important confounders. We also examined if DIF by arthritis status was similar between women and men. Although five items of the CES-D, one item of the PHQ-9, and five items of the K-6 scale had evidence of DIF based on statistical comparisons, the magnitude of each difference was less than the threshold of a small effect. The statistical differences were a function of the very large sample sizes in the surveys. Effect sizes for DIF were similar between women and men except for two items on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. For each questionnaire, DIF accounted for 8% or less of the arthritis-depression association, and excluding items with DIF did not reduce the difference in depression scores between those with and without arthritis. Persons with arthritis respond to items on the CES-D, PHQ-9, and K-6 depression scales similarly to persons without arthritis, despite the inclusion of somatic items in these scales.

Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

1999-01-01

We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of data from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes, particularly regarding the trade-off between precision and potential bias of parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

1999-01-01

We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of date from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes particularly regarding the trade-off between precison and potential bias o parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

A non-perturbative exploration of the high energy regime in Nf=3 QCD. ALPHA Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalla Brida, Mattia; Fritzsch, Patrick; Korzec, Tomasz; Ramos, Alberto; Sint, Stefan; Sommer, Rainer

2018-05-01

Using continuum extrapolated lattice data we trace a family of running couplings in three-flavour QCD over a large range of scales from about 4 to 128 GeV. The scale is set by the finite space time volume so that recursive finite size techniques can be applied, and Schrödinger functional (SF) boundary conditions enable direct simulations in the chiral limit. Compared to earlier studies we have improved on both statistical and systematic errors. Using the SF coupling to implicitly define a reference scale 1/L_0≈ 4 GeV through \\bar{g}^2(L_0) =2.012, we quote L_0 Λ ^{N_f=3}_{{\\overline{MS}}} =0.0791(21). This error is dominated by statistics; in particular, the remnant perturbative uncertainty is negligible and very well controlled, by connecting to infinite renormalization scale from different scales 2^n/L_0 for n=0,1,\\ldots ,5. An intermediate step in this connection may involve any member of a one-parameter family of SF couplings. This provides an excellent opportunity for tests of perturbation theory some of which have been published in a letter (ALPHA collaboration, M. Dalla Brida et al. in Phys Rev Lett 117(18):182001, 2016). The results indicate that for our target precision of 3 per cent in L_0 Λ ^{N_f=3}_{{\\overline{MS}}}, a reliable estimate of the truncation error requires non-perturbative data for a sufficiently large range of values of α _s=\\bar{g}^2/(4π ). In the present work we reach this precision by studying scales that vary by a factor 2^5= 32, reaching down to α _s≈ 0.1. We here provide the details of our analysis and an extended discussion.

Multi-Parent Clustering Algorithms from Stochastic Grammar Data Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mjoisness, Eric; Castano, Rebecca; Gray, Alexander

1999-01-01

We introduce a statistical data model and an associated optimization-based clustering algorithm which allows data vectors to belong to zero, one or several "parent" clusters. For each data vector the algorithm makes a discrete decision among these alternatives. Thus, a recursive version of this algorithm would place data clusters in a Directed Acyclic Graph rather than a tree. We test the algorithm with synthetic data generated according to the statistical data model. We also illustrate the algorithm using real data from large-scale gene expression assays.

Exploring Contextual Models in Chemical Patent Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbain, Jay; Frieder, Ophir

We explore the development of probabilistic retrieval models for integrating term statistics with entity search using multiple levels of document context to improve the performance of chemical patent search. A distributed indexing model was developed to enable efficient named entity search and aggregation of term statistics at multiple levels of patent structure including individual words, sentences, claims, descriptions, abstracts, and titles. The system can be scaled to an arbitrary number of compute instances in a cloud computing environment to support concurrent indexing and query processing operations on large patent collections.

Application of multivariate analysis and mass transfer principles for refinement of a 3-L bioreactor scale-down model--when shake flasks mimic 15,000-L bioreactors better.

PubMed

Ahuja, Sanjeev; Jain, Shilpa; Ram, Kripa

2015-01-01

Characterization of manufacturing processes is key to understanding the effects of process parameters on process performance and product quality. These studies are generally conducted using small-scale model systems. Because of the importance of the results derived from these studies, the small-scale model should be predictive of large scale. Typically, small-scale bioreactors, which are considered superior to shake flasks in simulating large-scale bioreactors, are used as the scale-down models for characterizing mammalian cell culture processes. In this article, we describe a case study where a cell culture unit operation in bioreactors using one-sided pH control and their satellites (small-scale runs conducted using the same post-inoculation cultures and nutrient feeds) in 3-L bioreactors and shake flasks indicated that shake flasks mimicked the large-scale performance better than 3-L bioreactors. We detail here how multivariate analysis was used to make the pertinent assessment and to generate the hypothesis for refining the existing 3-L scale-down model. Relevant statistical techniques such as principal component analysis, partial least square, orthogonal partial least square, and discriminant analysis were used to identify the outliers and to determine the discriminatory variables responsible for performance differences at different scales. The resulting analysis, in combination with mass transfer principles, led to the hypothesis that observed similarities between 15,000-L and shake flask runs, and differences between 15,000-L and 3-L runs, were due to pCO2 and pH values. This hypothesis was confirmed by changing the aeration strategy at 3-L scale. By reducing the initial sparge rate in 3-L bioreactor, process performance and product quality data moved closer to that of large scale. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Transport and Lagrangian Statistics in Rotating Stratified Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, D. L.

2015-12-01

Transport plays a crucial role in geophysical flows, both in theatmosphere and in the ocean. Transport in such flows is ultimatelycontrolled by small-scale turbulence, although the large scales arein geostrophic balance between pressure gradient, gravity and Coriolisforces. As a result of the seemingly random nature of the flow, singleparticles are dispersed by the flow and on time scales significantlylonger than the eddy turn-over time, they undergo a diffusive motionwhose diffusion coefficient is the integral of the velocity correlationfunction. On intermediate time scales, in homogeneous, isotropic turbuilence(HIT) the separation between particle pairs has been argued to grow withtime according to the Richardson law: <(Δ x)2(t)> ~ t3, with aproportionality constant that depends on the initial particleseparation. The description of the phenomena associated withthe dispersion of single particles, or of particle pairs, ultimatelyrests on relatively simple statistical properties of the flowvelocity transporting the particles, in particular on its temporalcorrelation function. In this work, we investigate particle dispersionin the anisotropic case of rotating stratified turbulence examining whetherthe dependence on initial particle separation differs from HIT,particularly in the presence of an inverse cascade.

Statistical characterization of short wind waves from stereo images of the sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mironov, Alexey; Yurovskaya, Maria; Dulov, Vladimir; Hauser, Danièle; Guérin, Charles-Antoine

2013-04-01

We propose a methodology to extract short-scale statistical characteristics of the sea surface topography by means of stereo image reconstruction. The possibilities and limitations of the technique are discussed and tested on a data set acquired from an oceanographic platform at the Black Sea. The analysis shows that reconstruction of the topography based on stereo method is an efficient way to derive non-trivial statistical properties of surface short- and intermediate-waves (say from 1 centimer to 1 meter). Most technical issues pertaining to this type of datasets (limited range of scales, lacunarity of data or irregular sampling) can be partially overcome by appropriate processing of the available points. The proposed technique also allows one to avoid linear interpolation which dramatically corrupts properties of retrieved surfaces. The processing technique imposes that the field of elevation be polynomially detrended, which has the effect of filtering out the large scales. Hence the statistical analysis can only address the small-scale components of the sea surface. The precise cut-off wavelength, which is approximatively half the patch size, can be obtained by applying a high-pass frequency filter on the reference gauge time records. The results obtained for the one- and two-points statistics of small-scale elevations are shown consistent, at least in order of magnitude, with the corresponding gauge measurements as well as other experimental measurements available in the literature. The calculation of the structure functions provides a powerful tool to investigate spectral and statistical properties of the field of elevations. Experimental parametrization of the third-order structure function, the so-called skewness function, is one of the most important and original outcomes of this study. This function is of primary importance in analytical scattering models from the sea surface and was up to now unavailable in field conditions. Due to the lack of precise reference measurements for the small-scale wave field, we could not quantify exactly the accuracy of the retrieval technique. However, it appeared clearly that the obtained accuracy is good enough for the estimation of second-order statistical quantities (such as the correlation function), acceptable for third-order quantities (such as the skwewness function) and insufficient for fourth-order quantities (such as kurtosis). Therefore, the stereo technique in the present stage should not be thought as a self-contained universal tool to characterize the surface statistics. Instead, it should be used in conjunction with other well calibrated but sparse reference measurement (such as wave gauges) for cross-validation and calibration. It then completes the statistical analysis in as much as it provides a snapshot of the three-dimensional field and allows for the evaluation of higher-order spatial statistics.

Dark energy and modified gravity in the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusin, Giulia; Lewandowski, Matthew; Vernizzi, Filippo

2018-04-01

We develop an approach to compute observables beyond the linear regime of dark matter perturbations for general dark energy and modified gravity models. We do so by combining the Effective Field Theory of Dark Energy and Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure approaches. In particular, we parametrize the linear and nonlinear effects of dark energy on dark matter clustering in terms of the Lagrangian terms introduced in a companion paper [1], focusing on Horndeski theories and assuming the quasi-static approximation. The Euler equation for dark matter is sourced, via the Newtonian potential, by new nonlinear vertices due to modified gravity and, as in the pure dark matter case, by the effects of short-scale physics in the form of the divergence of an effective stress tensor. The effective fluid introduces a counterterm in the solution to the matter continuity and Euler equations, which allows a controlled expansion of clustering statistics on mildly nonlinear scales. We use this setup to compute the one-loop dark-matter power spectrum.

Constraining the baryon-dark matter relative velocity with the large-scale 3-point correlation function of the SDSS BOSS DR12 CMASS galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slepian, Zachary; Slosar, Anze; Eisenstein, Daniel J.

We search for a galaxy clustering bias due to a modulation of galaxy number with the baryon-dark matter relative velocity resulting from recombination-era physics. We find no detected signal and place the constraint bv <0.01 on the relative velocity bias for the CMASS galaxies. This bias is an important potential systematic of Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) method measurements of the cosmic distance scale using the 2-point clustering. Our limit on the relative velocity bias indicates a systematic shift of no more than 0.3% rms in the distance scale inferred from the BAO feature in the BOSS 2-point clustering, well belowmore » the 1% statistical error of this measurement. In conclusion, this constraint is the most stringent currently available and has important implications for the ability of upcoming large-scale structure surveys such as DESI to self-protect against the relative velocity as a possible systematic.« less

Coherent nonhelical shear dynamos driven by magnetic fluctuations at low Reynolds numbers

DOE PAGES

Squire, J.; Bhattacharjee, A.

2015-10-28

Nonhelical shear dynamos are studied with a particular focus on the possibility of coherent dynamo action. The primary results—serving as a follow up to the results of Squire & Bhattacharjee—pertain to the "magnetic shear-current effect" as a viable mechanism to drive large-scale magnetic field generation. This effect raises the interesting possibility that the saturated state of the small-scale dynamo could drive large-scale dynamo action, and is likely to be important in the unstratified regions of accretion disk turbulence. In this paper, the effect is studied at low Reynolds numbers, removing the complications of small-scale dynamo excitation and aiding analysis bymore » enabling the use of quasi-linear statistical simulation methods. In addition to the magnetically driven dynamo, new results on the kinematic nonhelical shear dynamo are presented. Furthermore, these illustrate the relationship between coherent and incoherent driving in such dynamos, demonstrating the importance of rotation in determining the relative dominance of each mechanism.« less

COHERENT NONHELICAL SHEAR DYNAMOS DRIVEN BY MAGNETIC FLUCTUATIONS AT LOW REYNOLDS NUMBERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Squire, J.; Bhattacharjee, A., E-mail: jsquire@caltech.edu

2015-11-01

Nonhelical shear dynamos are studied with a particular focus on the possibility of coherent dynamo action. The primary results—serving as a follow up to the results of Squire and Bhattacharjee—pertain to the “magnetic shear-current effect” as a viable mechanism to drive large-scale magnetic field generation. This effect raises the interesting possibility that the saturated state of the small-scale dynamo could drive large-scale dynamo action, and is likely to be important in the unstratified regions of accretion disk turbulence. In this paper, the effect is studied at low Reynolds numbers, removing the complications of small-scale dynamo excitation and aiding analysis bymore » enabling the use of quasi-linear statistical simulation methods. In addition to the magnetically driven dynamo, new results on the kinematic nonhelical shear dynamo are presented. These illustrate the relationship between coherent and incoherent driving in such dynamos, demonstrating the importance of rotation in determining the relative dominance of each mechanism.« less

Large scale integration of graphene transistors for potential applications in the back end of the line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, A. D.; Vaziri, S.; Rodriguez, S.; Östling, M.; Lemme, M. C.

2015-06-01

A chip to wafer scale, CMOS compatible method of graphene device fabrication has been established, which can be integrated into the back end of the line (BEOL) of conventional semiconductor process flows. In this paper, we present experimental results of graphene field effect transistors (GFETs) which were fabricated using this wafer scalable method. The carrier mobilities in these transistors reach up to several hundred cm2 V-1 s-1. Further, these devices exhibit current saturation regions similar to graphene devices fabricated using mechanical exfoliation. The overall performance of the GFETs can not yet compete with record values reported for devices based on mechanically exfoliated material. Nevertheless, this large scale approach is an important step towards reliability and variability studies as well as optimization of device aspects such as electrical contacts and dielectric interfaces with statistically relevant numbers of devices. It is also an important milestone towards introducing graphene into wafer scale process lines.

Constraining the baryon-dark matter relative velocity with the large-scale 3-point correlation function of the SDSS BOSS DR12 CMASS galaxies

DOE PAGES

Slepian, Zachary; Slosar, Anze; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; ...

2017-10-24

We search for a galaxy clustering bias due to a modulation of galaxy number with the baryon-dark matter relative velocity resulting from recombination-era physics. We find no detected signal and place the constraint bv <0.01 on the relative velocity bias for the CMASS galaxies. This bias is an important potential systematic of Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) method measurements of the cosmic distance scale using the 2-point clustering. Our limit on the relative velocity bias indicates a systematic shift of no more than 0.3% rms in the distance scale inferred from the BAO feature in the BOSS 2-point clustering, well belowmore » the 1% statistical error of this measurement. In conclusion, this constraint is the most stringent currently available and has important implications for the ability of upcoming large-scale structure surveys such as DESI to self-protect against the relative velocity as a possible systematic.« less

Constraining the baryon-dark matter relative velocity with the large-scale three-point correlation function of the SDSS BOSS DR12 CMASS galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slepian, Zachary; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Blazek, Jonathan A.; Brownstein, Joel R.; Chuang, Chia-Hsun; Gil-Marín, Héctor; Ho, Shirley; Kitaura, Francisco-Shu; McEwen, Joseph E.; Percival, Will J.; Ross, Ashley J.; Rossi, Graziano; Seo, Hee-Jong; Slosar, Anže; Vargas-Magaña, Mariana

2018-02-01

We search for a galaxy clustering bias due to a modulation of galaxy number with the baryon-dark matter relative velocity resulting from recombination-era physics. We find no detected signal and place the constraint bv < 0.01 on the relative velocity bias for the CMASS galaxies. This bias is an important potential systematic of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) method measurements of the cosmic distance scale using the two-point clustering. Our limit on the relative velocity bias indicates a systematic shift of no more than 0.3 per cent rms in the distance scale inferred from the BAO feature in the BOSS two-point clustering, well below the 1 per cent statistical error of this measurement. This constraint is the most stringent currently available and has important implications for the ability of upcoming large-scale structure surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to self-protect against the relative velocity as a possible systematic.

An Open-Source Galaxy Redshift Survey Simulator for next-generation Large Scale Structure Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seijak, Uros

Galaxy redshift surveys produce three-dimensional maps of the galaxy distribution. On large scales these maps trace the underlying matter fluctuations in a relatively simple manner, so that the properties of the primordial fluctuations along with the overall expansion history and growth of perturbations can be extracted. The BAO standard ruler method to measure the expansion history of the universe using galaxy redshift surveys is thought to be robust to observational artifacts and understood theoretically with high precision. These same surveys can offer a host of additional information, including a measurement of the growth rate of large scale structure through redshift space distortions, the possibility of measuring the sum of neutrino masses, tighter constraints on the expansion history through the Alcock-Paczynski effect, and constraints on the scale-dependence and non-Gaussianity of the primordial fluctuations. Extracting this broadband clustering information hinges on both our ability to minimize and subtract observational systematics to the observed galaxy power spectrum, and our ability to model the broadband behavior of the observed galaxy power spectrum with exquisite precision. Rapid development on both fronts is required to capitalize on WFIRST's data set. We propose to develop an open-source computational toolbox that will propel development in both areas by connecting large scale structure modeling and instrument and survey modeling with the statistical inference process. We will use the proposed simulator to both tailor perturbation theory and fully non-linear models of the broadband clustering of WFIRST galaxies and discover novel observables in the non-linear regime that are robust to observational systematics and able to distinguish between a wide range of spatial and dynamic biasing models for the WFIRST galaxy redshift survey sources. We have demonstrated the utility of this approach in a pilot study of the SDSS-III BOSS galaxies, in which we improved the redshift space distortion growth rate measurement precision by a factor of 2.5 using customized clustering statistics in the non-linear regime that were immunized against observational systematics. We look forward to addressing the unique challenges of modeling and empirically characterizing the WFIRST galaxies and observational systematics.

A statistical approach to the life cycle analysis of cumulus clouds selected in a virtual reality environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heus, Thijs; Jonker, Harm J. J.; van den Akker, Harry E. A.; Griffith, Eric J.; Koutek, Michal; Post, Frits H.

2009-03-01

In this study, a new method is developed to investigate the entire life cycle of shallow cumuli in large eddy simulations. Although trained observers have no problem in distinguishing the different life stages of a cloud, this process proves difficult to automate, because cloud-splitting and cloud-merging events complicate the distinction between a single system divided in several cloudy parts and two independent systems that collided. Because the human perception is well equipped to capture and to make sense of these time-dependent three-dimensional features, a combination of automated constraints and human inspection in a three-dimensional virtual reality environment is used to select clouds that are exemplary in their behavior throughout their entire life span. Three specific cases (ARM, BOMEX, and BOMEX without large-scale forcings) are analyzed in this way, and the considerable number of selected clouds warrants reliable statistics of cloud properties conditioned on the phase in their life cycle. The most dominant feature in this statistical life cycle analysis is the pulsating growth that is present throughout the entire lifetime of the cloud, independent of the case and of the large-scale forcings. The pulses are a self-sustained phenomenon, driven by a balance between buoyancy and horizontal convergence of dry air. The convective inhibition just above the cloud base plays a crucial role as a barrier for the cloud to overcome in its infancy stage, and as a buffer region later on, ensuring a steady supply of buoyancy into the cloud.

Turbulent entrainment across turbulent-nonturbulent interfaces in stably stratified mixing layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, T.; Riley, J. J.; Nagata, K.

2017-10-01

The entrainment process in stably stratified mixing layers is studied in relation to the turbulent-nonturbulent interface (TNTI) using direct numerical simulations. The statistics are calculated with the interface coordinate in an Eulerian frame as well as with the Lagrangian fluid particles entrained from the nonturbulent to the turbulent regions. The characteristics of entrainment change as the buoyancy Reynolds number Reb decreases and the flow begins to layer. The baroclinic torque delays the enstrophy growth of the entrained fluids at small Reb, while this effect is less efficient for large Reb. The entrained particle movement within the TNTI layer is dominated by the small dissipative scales, and the rapid decay of the kinetic energy dissipation rate due to buoyancy causes the entrained particle movement relative to the interface location to become slower. Although the Eulerian statistics confirm that there exists turbulent fluid with strong vorticity or with large buoyancy frequency near the TNTI, the entrained fluid particles circumvent these regions by passing through the TNTI in strain-dominant regions or in regions with small buoyancy frequency. The multiparticle statistics show that once the nonturbulent fluid volumes are entrained, they are deformed into flattened shapes in the vertical direction and diffuse in the horizontal direction. When Reb is large enough for small-scale turbulence to exist, the entrained fluid is able to penetrate into the turbulent core region. Once the flow begins to layer with decreasing Reb, however, the entrained fluid volume remains near the outer edge of the turbulent region and forms a stably stratified layer without vertical overturning.

Neocortical dynamics at multiple scales: EEG standing waves, statistical mechanics, and physical analogs.

PubMed

Ingber, Lester; Nunez, Paul L

2011-02-01

The dynamic behavior of scalp potentials (EEG) is apparently due to some combination of global and local processes with important top-down and bottom-up interactions across spatial scales. In treating global mechanisms, we stress the importance of myelinated axon propagation delays and periodic boundary conditions in the cortical-white matter system, which is topologically close to a spherical shell. By contrast, the proposed local mechanisms are multiscale interactions between cortical columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers. A mechanical model consisting of a stretched string with attached nonlinear springs demonstrates the general idea. The string produces standing waves analogous to large-scale coherent EEG observed in some brain states. The attached springs are analogous to the smaller (mesoscopic) scale columnar dynamics. Generally, we expect string displacement and EEG at all scales to result from both global and local phenomena. A statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI) calculates oscillatory behavior consistent with typical EEG, within columns, between neighboring columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers, across cortical regions via myelinated fibers, and also derives a string equation consistent with the global EEG model. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The statistical properties of vortex flows in the solar atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedemeyer, Sven; Kato, Yoshiaki; Steiner, Oskar

2015-08-01

Rotating magnetic field structures associated with vortex flows on the Sun, also known as “magnetic tornadoes”, may serve as waveguides for MHD waves and transport mass and energy upwards through the atmosphere. Magnetic tornadoes may therefore potentially contribute to the heating of the upper atmospheric layers in quiet Sun regions.Magnetic tornadoes are observed over a large range of spatial and temporal scales in different layers in quiet Sun regions. However, their statistical properties such as size, lifetime, and rotation speed are not well understood yet because observations of these small-scale events are technically challenging and limited by the spatial and temporal resolution of current instruments. Better statistics based on a combination of high-resolution observations and state-of-the-art numerical simulations is the key to a reliable estimate of the energy input in the lower layers and of the energy deposition in the upper layers. For this purpose, we have developed a fast and reliable tool for the determination and visualization of the flow field in (observed) image sequences. This technique, which combines local correlation tracking (LCT) and line integral convolution (LIC), facilitates the detection and study of dynamic events on small scales, such as propagating waves. Here, we present statistical properties of vortex flows in different layers of the solar atmosphere and try to give realistic estimates of the energy flux which is potentially available for heating of the upper solar atmosphere

An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chardon, Jérémy; Hingray, Benoit; Favre, Anne-Catherine

2018-01-01

Statistical downscaling models (SDMs) are often used to produce local weather scenarios from large-scale atmospheric information. SDMs include transfer functions which are based on a statistical link identified from observations between local weather and a set of large-scale predictors. As physical processes driving surface weather vary in time, the most relevant predictors and the regression link are likely to vary in time too. This is well known for precipitation for instance and the link is thus often estimated after some seasonal stratification of the data. In this study, we present a two-stage analog/regression model where the regression link is estimated from atmospheric analogs of the current prediction day. Atmospheric analogs are identified from fields of geopotential heights at 1000 and 500 hPa. For the regression stage, two generalized linear models are further used to model the probability of precipitation occurrence and the distribution of non-zero precipitation amounts, respectively. The two-stage model is evaluated for the probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation over France. It noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and amount. As the analog days vary from one prediction day to another, the atmospheric predictors selected in the regression stage and the value of the corresponding regression coefficients can vary from one prediction day to another. The model allows thus for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can also reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations.

Performance of the first Japanese large-scale facility for radon inhalation experiments with small animals.

PubMed

Ishimori, Yuu; Mitsunobu, Fumihiro; Yamaoka, Kiyonori; Tanaka, Hiroshi; Kataoka, Takahiro; Sakoda, Akihiro

2011-07-01

A radon test facility for small animals was developed in order to increase the statistical validity of differences of the biological response in various radon environments. This paper illustrates the performances of that facility, the first large-scale facility of its kind in Japan. The facility has a capability to conduct approximately 150 mouse-scale tests at the same time. The apparatus for exposing small animals to radon has six animal chamber groups with five independent cages each. Different radon concentrations in each animal chamber group are available. Because the first target of this study is to examine the in vivo behaviour of radon and its effects, the major functions to control radon and to eliminate thoron were examined experimentally. Additionally, radon progeny concentrations and their particle size distributions in the cages were also examined experimentally to be considered in future projects.

Multi-scale Modeling of Radiation Damage: Large Scale Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warrier, M.; Bhardwaj, U.; Bukkuru, S.

2016-10-01

Modification of materials in nuclear reactors due to neutron irradiation is a multiscale problem. These neutrons pass through materials creating several energetic primary knock-on atoms (PKA) which cause localized collision cascades creating damage tracks, defects (interstitials and vacancies) and defect clusters depending on the energy of the PKA. These defects diffuse and recombine throughout the whole duration of operation of the reactor, thereby changing the micro-structure of the material and its properties. It is therefore desirable to develop predictive computational tools to simulate the micro-structural changes of irradiated materials. In this paper we describe how statistical averages of the collision cascades from thousands of MD simulations are used to provide inputs to Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations which can handle larger sizes, more defects and longer time durations. Use of unsupervised learning and graph optimization in handling and analyzing large scale MD data will be highlighted.

Statistical properties of edge plasma turbulence in the Large Helical Device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewhurst, J. M.; Hnat, B.; Ohno, N.; Dendy, R. O.; Masuzaki, S.; Morisaki, T.; Komori, A.

2008-09-01

Ion saturation current (Isat) measurements made by three tips of a Langmuir probe array in the Large Helical Device are analysed for two plasma discharges. Absolute moment analysis is used to quantify properties on different temporal scales of the measured signals, which are bursty and intermittent. Strong coherent modes in some datasets are found to distort this analysis and are consequently removed from the time series by applying bandstop filters. Absolute moment analysis of the filtered data reveals two regions of power-law scaling, with the temporal scale τ ≈ 40 µs separating the two regimes. A comparison is made with similar results from the Mega-Amp Spherical Tokamak. The probability density function is studied and a monotonic relationship between connection length and skewness is found. Conditional averaging is used to characterize the average temporal shape of the largest intermittent bursts.

DEMNUni: massive neutrinos and the bispectrum of large scale structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruggeri, Rossana; Castorina, Emanuele; Carbone, Carmelita; Sefusatti, Emiliano

2018-03-01

The main effect of massive neutrinos on the large-scale structure consists in a few percent suppression of matter perturbations on all scales below their free-streaming scale. Such effect is of particular importance as it allows to constraint the value of the sum of neutrino masses from measurements of the galaxy power spectrum. In this work, we present the first measurements of the next higher-order correlation function, the bispectrum, from N-body simulations that include massive neutrinos as particles. This is the simplest statistics characterising the non-Gaussian properties of the matter and dark matter halos distributions. We investigate, in the first place, the suppression due to massive neutrinos on the matter bispectrum, comparing our measurements with the simplest perturbation theory predictions, finding the approximation of neutrinos contributing at quadratic order in perturbation theory to provide a good fit to the measurements in the simulations. On the other hand, as expected, a linear approximation for neutrino perturbations would lead to Script O(fν) errors on the total matter bispectrum at large scales. We then attempt an extension of previous results on the universality of linear halo bias in neutrino cosmologies, to non-linear and non-local corrections finding consistent results with the power spectrum analysis.

Influence of a large-scale field on energy dissipation in magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhdankin, Vladimir; Boldyrev, Stanislav; Mason, Joanne

2017-07-01

In magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence, the large-scale magnetic field sets a preferred local direction for the small-scale dynamics, altering the statistics of turbulence from the isotropic case. This happens even in the absence of a total magnetic flux, since MHD turbulence forms randomly oriented large-scale domains of strong magnetic field. It is therefore customary to study small-scale magnetic plasma turbulence by assuming a strong background magnetic field relative to the turbulent fluctuations. This is done, for example, in reduced models of plasmas, such as reduced MHD, reduced-dimension kinetic models, gyrokinetics, etc., which make theoretical calculations easier and numerical computations cheaper. Recently, however, it has become clear that the turbulent energy dissipation is concentrated in the regions of strong magnetic field variations. A significant fraction of the energy dissipation may be localized in very small volumes corresponding to the boundaries between strongly magnetized domains. In these regions, the reduced models are not applicable. This has important implications for studies of particle heating and acceleration in magnetic plasma turbulence. The goal of this work is to systematically investigate the relationship between local magnetic field variations and magnetic energy dissipation, and to understand its implications for modelling energy dissipation in realistic turbulent plasmas.

Assessment and statistical modeling of the relationship between remotely sensed aerosol optical depth and PM2.5 in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Paciorek, Christopher J; Liu, Yang

2012-05-01

Research in scientific, public health, and policy disciplines relating to the environment increasingly makes use of high-dimensional remote sensing and the output of numerical models in conjunction with traditional observations. Given the public health and resultant public policy implications of the potential health effects of particulate matter (PM*) air pollution, specifically fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 pm (PM2.5), there has been substantial recent interest in the use of remote-sensing information, in particular aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from satellites, to help characterize variability in ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in space and time. While the United States and some other developed countries have extensive PM monitoring networks, gaps in data across space and time necessarily occur; the hope is that remote sensing can help fill these gaps. In this report, we are particularly interested in using remote-sensing data to inform estimates of spatial patterns in ambient PM2.5 concentrations at monthly and longer time scales for use in epidemiologic analyses. However, we also analyzed daily data to better disentangle spatial and temporal relationships. For AOD to be helpful, it needs to add information beyond that available from the monitoring network. For analyses of chronic health effects, it needs to add information about the concentrations of long-term average PM2.5; therefore, filling the spatial gaps is key. Much recent evidence has shown that AOD is correlated with PM2.5 in the eastern United States, but the use of AOD in exposure analysis for epidemiologic work has been rare, in part because discrepancies necessarily exist between satellite-retrieved estimates of AOD, which is an atmospheric-column average, and ground-level PM2.5. In this report, we summarize the results of a number of empirical analyses and of the development of statistical models for the use of proxy information, in particular satellite AOD, in predicting PM2.5 concentrations in the eastern United States. We analyzed the spatiotemporal structure of the relationship between PM2.5 and AOD, first using simple correlations both before and after calibration based on meteorology, as well as large-scale spatial and temporal calibration to account for discrepancies between AOD and PM2.5. We then used both raw and calibrated AOD retrievals in statistical models to predict PM2.5 concentrations, accounting for AOD in two ways: primarily as a separate data source contributing a second likelihood to a Bayesian statistical model, as well as a data source on which we could directly regress. Previous consideration of satellite AOD has largely focused on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and multiangle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) instruments. One contribution of our work is more extensive consideration of AOD derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite East Aerosol/Smoke Product (GOES GASP) AOD and its relationship with PM2.5. In addition to empirically assessing the spatiotemporal relationship between GASP AOD and PM2.5, we considered new statistical techniques to screen anomalous GOES reflectance measurements and account for background surface reflectance. In our statistical work, we developed a new model structure that allowed for more flexible modeling of the proxy discrepancy than previous statistical efforts have had, with a computationally efficient implementation. We also suggested a diagnostic for assessing the scales of the spatial relationship between the proxy and the spatial process of interest (e.g., PM2.5). In brief, we had little success in improving predictions in our eastern-United States domain for use in epidemiologic applications. We found positive correlations of AOD with PM2.5 over time, but less correlation for long-term averages over space, unless we used calibration that adjusted for large-scale discrepancy between AOD and PM2.5 (see sections 3, 4, and 5). Statistical models that combined AOD, PM2.5 observations, and land-use and meteorologic variables were highly predictive of PM2.5 observations held out of the modeling, but AOD added little information beyond that provided by the other sources (see sections 5 and 6). When we used PM2.5 data estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) as the proxy instead of using AOD, we similarly found little improvement in predicting held-out observations of PM2.5, but when we regressed on CMAQ PM2.5 estimates, the predictions improved moderately in some cases. These results appeared to be caused in part by the fact that large-scale spatial patterns in PM2.5 could be predicted well by smoothing the monitor values, while small-scale spatial patterns in AOD appeared to weakly reflect the variation in PM2.5 inferred from the observations. Using a statistical model that allowed for potential proxy discrepancy at both large and small spatial scales was an important component of our modeling. In particular, when our models did not include a component to account for small-scale discrepancy, predictive performance decreased substantially. Even long-term averages of MISR AOD, considered the best, albeit most sparse, of the AOD products, were only weakly correlated with measured PM2.5 (see section 4). This might have been partly related to the fact that our analysis did not account for spatial variation in the vertical profile of the aerosol. Furthermore, we found evidence that some of the correlation between raw AOD and PM2.5 might have been a function of surface brightness related to land use, rather than having been driven by the detection of aerosol in the AOD retrieval algorithms (see sections 4 and 7). Difficulties in estimating the background surface reflectance in the retrieval algorithms likely explain this finding. With regard to GOES, we found moderate correlations of GASP AOD and PM2.5. The higher correlations of monthly and yearly averages after calibration reflected primarily the improved large-scale correlation, a necessary result of the calibration procedure (see section 3). While the results of this study's GOES reflectance screening and surface reflection correction appeared sensible, correlations of our proposed reflectance-based proxy with PM2.5 were no better than GASP AOD correlations with PM2.5 (see section 7). We had difficulty improving spatial prediction of monthly and yearly average PM2.5 using AOD in the eastern United States, which we attribute to the spatial discrepancy between AOD and measured PM2.5, particularly at smaller scales. This points to the importance of paying attention to the discrepancy structure of proxy information, both from remote-sensing and deterministic models. In particular, important statistical challenges arise in accounting for the discrepancy, given the difficulty in the face of sparse observations of distinguishing the discrepancy from the component of the proxy that is informative about the process of interest. Associations between adverse health outcomes and large-scale variation in PM2.5 (e.g., across regions) may be confounded by unmeasured spatial variation in factors such as diet. Therefore, one important goal was to use AOD to improve predictions of PM2.5 for use in epidemiologic analyses at small-to-moderate spatial scales (within urban areas and within regions). In addition, large-scale PM2.5 variation is well estimated from the monitoring data, at least in the United States. We found little evidence that current AOD products are helpful for improving prediction at small-to-moderate scales in the eastern United States and believe more evidence for the reliability of AOD as a proxy at such scales is needed before making use of AOD for PM2.5 prediction in epidemiologic contexts. While our results relied in part on relatively complicated statistical models, which may be sensitive to modeling assumptions, our exploratory correlation analyses (see sections 3 and 5) and relatively simple regression-style modeling of MISR AOD (see section 4) were consistent with the more complicated modeling results. When assessing the usefulness of AOD in the context of studying chronic health effects, we believe efforts need to focus on disentangling the temporal from the spatial correlations of AOD and PM2.5 and on understanding the spatial scale of correlation and of the discrepancy structure. While our results are discouraging, it is important to note that we attempted to make use of smaller-scale spatial variation in AOD to distinguish spatial variations of relatively small magnitude in long-term concentrations of ambient PM2.5. Our efforts pushed the limits of current technology in a spatial domain with relatively low PM2.5 levels and limited spatial variability. AOD may hold more promise in areas with higher aerosol levels, as the AOD signal would be stronger there relative to the background surface reflectance. Furthermore, for developing countries with high aerosol levels, it is difficult to build statistical models based on PM2.5 measurements and land-use covariates, so AOD may add more incremental information in those contexts. More generally, researchers in remote sensing are involved in ongoing efforts to improve AOD products and develop new approaches to using AOD, such as calibration with model-estimated vertical profiles and the use of speciation information in MISR AOD; these efforts warrant continued investigation of the usefulness of remotely sensed AOD for public health research.

GenASiS Basics: Object-oriented utilitarian functionality for large-scale physics simulations

DOE PAGES

Cardall, Christian Y.; Budiardja, Reuben D.

2015-06-11

Aside from numerical algorithms and problem setup, large-scale physics simulations on distributed-memory supercomputers require more basic utilitarian functionality, such as physical units and constants; display to the screen or standard output device; message passing; I/O to disk; and runtime parameter management and usage statistics. Here we describe and make available Fortran 2003 classes furnishing extensible object-oriented implementations of this sort of rudimentary functionality, along with individual `unit test' programs and larger example problems demonstrating their use. Lastly, these classes compose the Basics division of our developing astrophysics simulation code GenASiS (General Astrophysical Simulation System), but their fundamental nature makes themmore » useful for physics simulations in many fields.« less

Cosmic Ray Studies with the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope Large Area Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, David J.; Baldini, L.; Uchiyama, Y.

2012-01-01

The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope provides both direct and indirect measurements of galactic cosmic rays (CR). The LAT high-statistics observations of the 7 GeV - 1 TeV electron plus positron spectrum and limits on spatial anisotropy constrain models for this cosmic-ray component. On a galactic scale, the LAT observations indicate that cosmic-ray sources may be more plentiful in the outer Galaxy than expected or that the scale height of the cosmic-ray diffusive halo is larger than conventional models. Production of cosmic rays in supernova remnants (SNR) is supported by the LAT gamma-ray studies of several of these, both young SNR and those interacting with molecular clouds.

Large-scale semidefinite programming for many-electron quantum mechanics.

PubMed

Mazziotti, David A

2011-02-25

The energy of a many-electron quantum system can be approximated by a constrained optimization of the two-electron reduced density matrix (2-RDM) that is solvable in polynomial time by semidefinite programming (SDP). Here we develop a SDP method for computing strongly correlated 2-RDMs that is 10-20 times faster than previous methods [D. A. Mazziotti, Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 213001 (2004)]. We illustrate with (i) the dissociation of N(2) and (ii) the metal-to-insulator transition of H(50). For H(50) the SDP problem has 9.4×10(6) variables. This advance also expands the feasibility of large-scale applications in quantum information, control, statistics, and economics. © 2011 American Physical Society

Large-Scale Semidefinite Programming for Many-Electron Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazziotti, David A.

2011-02-01

The energy of a many-electron quantum system can be approximated by a constrained optimization of the two-electron reduced density matrix (2-RDM) that is solvable in polynomial time by semidefinite programming (SDP). Here we develop a SDP method for computing strongly correlated 2-RDMs that is 10-20 times faster than previous methods [D. A. Mazziotti, Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 213001 (2004)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.93.213001]. We illustrate with (i) the dissociation of N2 and (ii) the metal-to-insulator transition of H50. For H50 the SDP problem has 9.4×106 variables. This advance also expands the feasibility of large-scale applications in quantum information, control, statistics, and economics.

Cosmic Ray Studies with the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope Large Area Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, D. J.; Baldini, L.; Uchiyama, Y.

2011-01-01

The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope provides both direct and indirect measurements of Galactic cosmic rays (CR). The LAT high-statistics observations of the 7 GeV - 1 TcV electron plus positron spectrum and limits on spatial anisotropy constrain models for this cosmic-ray component. On a Galactic scale, the LAT observations indicate that cosmic-ray sources may be more plentiful in the outer Galaxy than expected or that the scale height of the cosmic-ray diffusive halo is larger than conventional models. Production of cosmic rays in supernova remnants (SNR) is supported by the LAT gamma-ray studies of several of these, both young SNR and those interacting with molecular clouds.

Integral criteria for large-scale multiple fingerprint solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushmaev, Oleg S.; Novikov, Sergey O.

2004-08-01

We propose the definition and analysis of the optimal integral similarity score criterion for large scale multmodal civil ID systems. Firstly, the general properties of score distributions for genuine and impostor matches for different systems and input devices are investigated. The empirical statistics was taken from the real biometric tests. Then we carry out the analysis of simultaneous score distributions for a number of combined biometric tests and primary for ultiple fingerprint solutions. The explicit and approximate relations for optimal integral score, which provides the least value of the FRR while the FAR is predefined, have been obtained. The results of real multiple fingerprint test show good correspondence with the theoretical results in the wide range of the False Acceptance and the False Rejection Rates.

Large-scale quantitative analysis of painting arts.

PubMed

Kim, Daniel; Son, Seung-Woo; Jeong, Hawoong

2014-12-11

Scientists have made efforts to understand the beauty of painting art in their own languages. As digital image acquisition of painting arts has made rapid progress, researchers have come to a point where it is possible to perform statistical analysis of a large-scale database of artistic paints to make a bridge between art and science. Using digital image processing techniques, we investigate three quantitative measures of images - the usage of individual colors, the variety of colors, and the roughness of the brightness. We found a difference in color usage between classical paintings and photographs, and a significantly low color variety of the medieval period. Interestingly, moreover, the increment of roughness exponent as painting techniques such as chiaroscuro and sfumato have advanced is consistent with historical circumstances.

Streak instability as an initiating mechanism of the large-scale motions in a turbulent channel flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Giovanetti, Matteo; Sung, Hyung Jin; Hwang, Yongyun

2016-11-01

The large-scale motions (or bulges) have often been believed to be formed via merge and/or growth of the near-wall hairpin vortical structures. Here, we report our observation that they can be directly generated by an instability of the amplified streaky motions in the outer region (i.e. very-large-scale motions) through the self-sustaining process. We design a LES-based numerical experiment in turbulent channel flow for Reτ = 2000 where a body forcing is implemented to artificially drive an infinitely long streaky motion in the outer layer. As the forcing amplitude is increased, it is found that a new energetic structure emerges at λx 3 4 h of the streamwise length (h is the half height of channel) particularly in the wall-normal and spanwise velocities. A careful statistical examination reveals that this structure is likely to be linked with the sinuous-mode streak instability of the amplified streak, consistent with previous theoretical studies. Application of dynamic mode decomposition to this instability further shows that the phase speed of this structure scales with the outer velocity and it is initiated around the critical layer of the streaky flow.

Effects of turbulence intensity and gravity on transport of inertial particles across a shearless turbulence interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Garrett; Gerashchenko, Sergiy; Warhaft, Zellman

2010-11-01

Water droplets of sub-Kolmogorov size are sprayed into the turbulence side of a shearless turbulent-non-turbulent interface (TNI) as well as a turbulent-turbulent interface (TTI). An active grid is used to form the mixing layer and a splitter plate separates the droplet-non droplet interface near the origin. Particle concentration, size and velocity are determined by Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer, the velocity field by hot wires, and the droplet accelerations by particle tracking. As for a passive scalar, for the TTI, the concentration profiles are described by an error function. For the TNI, the concentration profiles fall off more rapidly than for the TTI due to the large-scale intermittency. The profile evolution and effects of initial conditions are discussed, as are the relative importance of the large and small scales in the transport process. It is shown that the concentration statistics are better described in terms of the Stokes number based on the large scales than the small, but some features of the mixing are determined by the small scales, and these will be discussed. Sponsored by the U.S. NSF.

Weighing trees with lasers: advances, challenges and opportunities

PubMed Central

Boni Vicari, M.; Burt, A.; Calders, K.; Lewis, S. L.; Raumonen, P.; Wilkes, P.

2018-01-01

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is providing exciting new ways to quantify tree and forest structure, particularly above-ground biomass (AGB). We show how TLS can address some of the key uncertainties and limitations of current approaches to estimating AGB based on empirical allometric scaling equations (ASEs) that underpin all large-scale estimates of AGB. TLS provides extremely detailed non-destructive measurements of tree form independent of tree size and shape. We show examples of three-dimensional (3D) TLS measurements from various tropical and temperate forests and describe how the resulting TLS point clouds can be used to produce quantitative 3D models of branch and trunk size, shape and distribution. These models can drastically improve estimates of AGB, provide new, improved large-scale ASEs, and deliver insights into a range of fundamental tree properties related to structure. Large quantities of detailed measurements of individual 3D tree structure also have the potential to open new and exciting avenues of research in areas where difficulties of measurement have until now prevented statistical approaches to detecting and understanding underlying patterns of scaling, form and function. We discuss these opportunities and some of the challenges that remain to be overcome to enable wider adoption of TLS methods. PMID:29503726

Direct and inverse energy cascades in a forced rotating turbulence experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campagne, Antoine; Gallet, Basile; Moisy, Frédéric; Cortet, Pierre-Philippe

2014-11-01

Turbulence in a rotating frame provides a remarkable system where 2D and 3D properties may coexist, with a possible tuning between direct and inverse cascades. We present here experimental evidence for a double cascade of kinetic energy in a statistically stationary rotating turbulence experiment. Turbulence is generated by a set of vertical flaps which continuously injects velocity fluctuations towards the center of a rotating water tank. The energy transfers are evaluated from two-point third-order three-component velocity structure functions, which we measure using stereoscopic PIV in the rotating frame. Without global rotation, the energy is transferred from large to small scales, as in classical 3D turbulence. For nonzero rotation rates, the horizontal kinetic energy presents a double cascade: a direct cascade at small horizontal scales and an inverse cascade at large horizontal scales. By contrast, the vertical kinetic energy is always transferred from large to small horizontal scales, a behavior reminiscent of the dynamics of a passive scalar in 2D turbulence. At the largest rotation rate, the flow is nearly 2D and a pure inverse energy cascade is found for the horizontal energy.

Statistical properties of a cloud ensemble - A numerical study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne; Soong, Su-Tzai

1987-01-01

The statistical properties of cloud ensembles under a specified large-scale environment, such as mass flux by cloud drafts and vertical velocity as well as the condensation and evaporation associated with these cloud drafts, are examined using a three-dimensional numerical cloud ensemble model described by Soong and Ogura (1980) and Tao and Soong (1986). The cloud drafts are classified as active and inactive, and separate contributions to cloud statistics in areas of different cloud activity are then evaluated. The model results compare well with results obtained from aircraft measurements of a well-organized ITCZ rainband that occurred on August 12, 1974, during the Global Atmospheric Research Program's Atlantic Tropical Experiment.

Seasonal variations of volcanic eruption frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stothers, Richard B.

1989-01-01

Do volcanic eruptions have a tendency to occur more frequently in the months of May and June? Some past evidence suggests that they do. The present study, based on the new eruption catalog of Simkin et al.(1981), investigates the monthly statistics of the largest eruptions, grouped according to explosive magnitude, geographical latitude, and year. At the 2-delta level, no month-to-month variations in eruption frequency are found to be statistically significant. Examination of previously published month-to-month variations suggests that they, too, are not statistically significant. It is concluded that volcanism, at least averaged over large portions of the globe, is probably not periodic on a seasonal or annual time scale.

Irradiation-hyperthermia in canine hemangiopericytomas: large-animal model for therapeutic response.

PubMed

Richardson, R C; Anderson, V L; Voorhees, W D; Blevins, W E; Inskeep, T K; Janas, W; Shupe, R E; Babbs, C F

1984-11-01

Results of irradiation-hyperthermia treatment in 11 dogs with naturally occurring hemangiopericytoma were reported. Similarities of canine and human hemangiopericytomas were described. Orthovoltage X-irradiation followed by microwave-induced hyperthermia resulted in a 91% objective response rate. A statistical procedure was given to evaluate quantitatively the clinical behavior of locally invasive, nonmetastatic tumors in dogs that were undergoing therapy for control of local disease. The procedure used a small sample size and demonstrated distribution of the data on a scaled response as well as transformation of the data through classical parametric and nonparametric statistical methods. These statistical methods set confidence limits on the population mean and placed tolerance limits on a population percentage. Application of the statistical methods to human and animal clinical trials was apparent.

Characterisation of minimal-span plane Couette turbulence with pressure gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekimoto, Atsushi; Atkinson, Callum; Soria, Julio

2018-04-01

The turbulence statistics and dynamics in the spanwise-minimal plane Couette flow with pressure gradients, so-called, Couette-Poiseuille (C-P) flow, are investigated using direct numerical simulation. The large-scale motion is limited in the spanwise box dimension as in the minimal-span channel turbulence of Flores & Jiménez (Phys. Fluids, vol. 22, 2010, 071704). The effect of the top wall, where normal pressure-driven Poiseuille flow is realised, is distinguished from the events on the bottom wall, where the pressure gradient results in mild or almost-zero wall-shear stress. A proper scaling of turbulence statistics in minimal-span C-P flows is presented. Also the ‘shear-less’ wall-bounded turbulence, where the Corrsin shear parameter is very weak compared to normal wall-bounded turbulence, represents local separation, which is also observed as spanwise streaks of reversed flow in full-size plane C-P turbulence. The local separation is a multi-scale event, which grows up to the order of the channel height even in the minimal-span geometry.

Measurements of Turbulence at Two Tidal Energy Sites in Puget Sound, WA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Jim; Polagye, Brian; Durgesh, Vibhav

2012-06-05

Field measurements of turbulence are pre- sented from two sites in Puget Sound, WA (USA) that are proposed for electrical power generation using tidal current turbines. Rapidly sampled data from multiple acoustic Doppler instruments are analyzed to obtain statistical mea- sures of fluctuations in both the magnitude and direction of the tidal currents. The resulting turbulence intensities (i.e., the turbulent velocity fluctuations normalized by the harmonic tidal currents) are typically 10% at the hub- heights (i.e., the relevant depth bin) of the proposed turbines. Length and time scales of the turbulence are also analyzed. Large-scale, anisotropic eddies dominate the energymore » spectra, which may be the result of proximity to headlands at each site. At small scales, an isotropic turbulent cascade is observed and used to estimate the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy. Data quality and sampling parameters are discussed, with an emphasis on the removal of Doppler noise from turbulence statistics.« less

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

2009-05-01

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

Collecting verbal autopsies: improving and streamlining data collection processes using electronic tablets.

PubMed

Flaxman, Abraham D; Stewart, Andrea; Joseph, Jonathan C; Alam, Nurul; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Chowdhury, Hafizur; Mooney, Meghan D; Rampatige, Rasika; Remolador, Hazel; Sanvictores, Diozele; Serina, Peter T; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Tallo, Veronica; Murray, Christopher J L; Hernandez, Bernardo; Lopez, Alan D; Riley, Ian Douglas

2018-02-01

There is increasing interest in using verbal autopsy to produce nationally representative population-level estimates of causes of death. However, the burden of processing a large quantity of surveys collected with paper and pencil has been a barrier to scaling up verbal autopsy surveillance. Direct electronic data capture has been used in other large-scale surveys and can be used in verbal autopsy as well, to reduce time and cost of going from collected data to actionable information. We collected verbal autopsy interviews using paper and pencil and using electronic tablets at two sites, and measured the cost and time required to process the surveys for analysis. From these cost and time data, we extrapolated costs associated with conducting large-scale surveillance with verbal autopsy. We found that the median time between data collection and data entry for surveys collected on paper and pencil was approximately 3 months. For surveys collected on electronic tablets, this was less than 2 days. For small-scale surveys, we found that the upfront costs of purchasing electronic tablets was the primary cost and resulted in a higher total cost. For large-scale surveys, the costs associated with data entry exceeded the cost of the tablets, so electronic data capture provides both a quicker and cheaper method of data collection. As countries increase verbal autopsy surveillance, it is important to consider the best way to design sustainable systems for data collection. Electronic data capture has the potential to greatly reduce the time and costs associated with data collection. For long-term, large-scale surveillance required by national vital statistical systems, electronic data capture reduces costs and allows data to be available sooner.

Modeling near-wall turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marusic, Ivan; Mathis, Romain; Hutchins, Nicholas

2010-11-01

The near-wall region of turbulent boundary layers is a crucial region for turbulence production, but it is also a region that becomes increasing difficult to access and make measurements in as the Reynolds number becomes very high. Consequently, it is desirable to model the turbulence in this region. Recent studies have shown that the classical description, with inner (wall) scaling alone, is insufficient to explain the behaviour of the streamwise turbulence intensities with increasing Reynolds number. Here we will review our recent near-wall model (Marusic et al., Science 329, 2010), where the near-wall turbulence is predicted given information from only the large-scale signature at a single measurement point in the logarithmic layer, considerably far from the wall. The model is consistent with the Townsend attached eddy hypothesis in that the large-scale structures associated with the log-region are felt all the way down to the wall, but also includes a non-linear amplitude modulation effect of the large structures on the near-wall turbulence. Detailed predicted spectra across the entire near- wall region will be presented, together with other higher order statistics over a large range of Reynolds numbers varying from laboratory to atmospheric flows.

ReSeqTools: an integrated toolkit for large-scale next-generation sequencing based resequencing analysis.

PubMed

He, W; Zhao, S; Liu, X; Dong, S; Lv, J; Liu, D; Wang, J; Meng, Z

2013-12-04

Large-scale next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based resequencing detects sequence variations, constructs evolutionary histories, and identifies phenotype-related genotypes. However, NGS-based resequencing studies generate extraordinarily large amounts of data, making computations difficult. Effective use and analysis of these data for NGS-based resequencing studies remains a difficult task for individual researchers. Here, we introduce ReSeqTools, a full-featured toolkit for NGS (Illumina sequencing)-based resequencing analysis, which processes raw data, interprets mapping results, and identifies and annotates sequence variations. ReSeqTools provides abundant scalable functions for routine resequencing analysis in different modules to facilitate customization of the analysis pipeline. ReSeqTools is designed to use compressed data files as input or output to save storage space and facilitates faster and more computationally efficient large-scale resequencing studies in a user-friendly manner. It offers abundant practical functions and generates useful statistics during the analysis pipeline, which significantly simplifies resequencing analysis. Its integrated algorithms and abundant sub-functions provide a solid foundation for special demands in resequencing projects. Users can combine these functions to construct their own pipelines for other purposes.

Accuracy assessment of percent canopy cover, cover type, and size class

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; S. Bain; R. C. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Truth for vegetation cover percent and type is obtained from very large-scale photography (VLSP), stand structure as measured by size classes, and vegetation types from a combination of VLSP and ground sampling. We recommend using the Kappa statistic with bootstrap confidence intervals for overall accuracy, and similarly bootstrap confidence intervals for percent...

Mercury concentrations in lentic fish populations related to ecosystem and watershed characteristics

Treesearch

Andrew L. Rypel

2010-01-01

Predicting mercury (Hg) concentrations of fishes at large spatial scales is a fundamental environmental challenge with the potential to improve human health. In this study, mercury concentrations were examined for five species across 161 lakes and ecosystem, and watershed parameters were investigated as explanatory variables in statistical models. For all species, Hg...

Scalability of Semi-Implicit Time Integrators for Nonhydrostatic Galerkin-based Atmospheric Models on Large Scale Cluster

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

present performance statistics to explain the scalability behavior. Keywords-atmospheric models, time intergrators , MPI, scal- ability, performance; I...across inter-element bound- aries. Basis functions are constructed as tensor products of Lagrange polynomials ψi (x) = hα(ξ) ⊗ hβ(η) ⊗ hγ(ζ)., where hα

Power-law tail probabilities of drainage areas in river basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veitzer, S.A.; Troutman, B.M.; Gupta, V.K.

2003-01-01

The significance of power-law tail probabilities of drainage areas in river basins was discussed. The convergence to a power law was not observed for all underlying distributions, but for a large class of statistical distributions with specific limiting properties. The article also discussed about the scaling properties of topologic and geometric network properties in river basins.

International Comparative Studies in Education: Descriptions of Selected Large-Scale Assessments and Case Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.

Since its inception in 1988, the Board on International Comparative Studies in Education (BICSE) has monitored U.S. participation in those cross national comparative studies in education that are funded by its sponsors, the National Science Foundation and the National Center for Education Statistics. This set of international study descriptions…

Evaluating Educational Programs. ETS R&D Scientific and Policy Contributions Series. ETS SPC-11-01. ETS Research Report No. RR-11-15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ball, Samuel

2011-01-01

Since its founding in 1947, ETS has conducted a significant and wide-ranging research program that has focused on, among other things, psychometric and statistical methodology; educational evaluation; performance assessment and scoring; large-scale assessment and evaluation; cognitive, developmental, personality, and social psychology; and…

Applications of artificial intelligence systems in the analysis of epidemiological data.

PubMed

Flouris, Andreas D; Duffy, Jack

2006-01-01

A brief review of the germane literature suggests that the use of artificial intelligence (AI) statistical algorithms in epidemiology has been limited. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using AI systems in large-scale sets of epidemiological data to extract inherent, formerly unidentified, and potentially valuable patterns that human-driven deductive models may miss.

ANALYSIS TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL AGE RANGE CATEGORIES IN DISTRIBUTIONS OF WATER CONSUMPTION AND BODY WEIGHT IN THE U.S. USING CSFII DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Statistical population based estimates of water ingestion play a vital role in many types of exposure and risk analysis. A significant large scale analysis of water ingestion by the population of the United States was recently completed and is documented in the report titled ...

Laboratory observation of electron phase-space holes during magnetic reconnection.

PubMed

Fox, W; Porkolab, M; Egedal, J; Katz, N; Le, A

2008-12-19

We report the observation of large-amplitude, nonlinear electrostatic structures, identified as electron phase-space holes, during magnetic reconnection experiments on the Versatile Toroidal Facility at MIT. The holes are positive electric potential spikes, observed on high-bandwidth ( approximately 2 GHz) Langmuir probes. Investigations with multiple probes establish that the holes travel at or above the electron thermal speed and have a three-dimensional, approximately spherical shape, with a scale size approximately 2 mm. This corresponds to a few electron gyroradii, or many tens of Debye lengths, which is large compared to holes considered in simulations and observed by satellites, whose length scale is typically only a few Debye lengths. Finally, a statistical study over many discharges confirms that the holes appear in conjunction with the large inductive electric fields and the creation of energetic electrons associated with the magnetic energy release.

Laser-induced plasmonic colours on metals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guay, Jean-Michel; Calà Lesina, Antonino; Côté, Guillaume; Charron, Martin; Poitras, Daniel; Ramunno, Lora; Berini, Pierre; Weck, Arnaud

2017-07-01

Plasmonic resonances in metallic nanoparticles have been used since antiquity to colour glasses. The use of metal nanostructures for surface colourization has attracted considerable interest following recent developments in plasmonics. However, current top-down colourization methods are not ideally suited to large-scale industrial applications. Here we use a bottom-up approach where picosecond laser pulses can produce a full palette of non-iridescent colours on silver, gold, copper and aluminium. We demonstrate the process on silver coins weighing up to 5 kg and bearing large topographic variations (~1.5 cm). We find that colours are related to a single parameter, the total accumulated fluence, making the process suitable for high-throughput industrial applications. Statistical image analyses of laser-irradiated surfaces reveal various nanoparticle size distributions. Large-scale finite-difference time-domain computations based on these nanoparticle distributions reproduce trends seen in reflectance measurements, and demonstrate the key role of plasmonic resonances in colour formation.

Handling Big Data in Medical Imaging: Iterative Reconstruction with Large-Scale Automated Parallel Computation

PubMed Central

Lee, Jae H.; Yao, Yushu; Shrestha, Uttam; Gullberg, Grant T.; Seo, Youngho

2014-01-01

The primary goal of this project is to implement the iterative statistical image reconstruction algorithm, in this case maximum likelihood expectation maximum (MLEM) used for dynamic cardiac single photon emission computed tomography, on Spark/GraphX. This involves porting the algorithm to run on large-scale parallel computing systems. Spark is an easy-to- program software platform that can handle large amounts of data in parallel. GraphX is a graph analytic system running on top of Spark to handle graph and sparse linear algebra operations in parallel. The main advantage of implementing MLEM algorithm in Spark/GraphX is that it allows users to parallelize such computation without any expertise in parallel computing or prior knowledge in computer science. In this paper we demonstrate a successful implementation of MLEM in Spark/GraphX and present the performance gains with the goal to eventually make it useable in clinical setting. PMID:27081299

Handling Big Data in Medical Imaging: Iterative Reconstruction with Large-Scale Automated Parallel Computation.

PubMed

Lee, Jae H; Yao, Yushu; Shrestha, Uttam; Gullberg, Grant T; Seo, Youngho

2014-11-01

The primary goal of this project is to implement the iterative statistical image reconstruction algorithm, in this case maximum likelihood expectation maximum (MLEM) used for dynamic cardiac single photon emission computed tomography, on Spark/GraphX. This involves porting the algorithm to run on large-scale parallel computing systems. Spark is an easy-to- program software platform that can handle large amounts of data in parallel. GraphX is a graph analytic system running on top of Spark to handle graph and sparse linear algebra operations in parallel. The main advantage of implementing MLEM algorithm in Spark/GraphX is that it allows users to parallelize such computation without any expertise in parallel computing or prior knowledge in computer science. In this paper we demonstrate a successful implementation of MLEM in Spark/GraphX and present the performance gains with the goal to eventually make it useable in clinical setting.

Laser-induced plasmonic colours on metals

PubMed Central

Guay, Jean-Michel; Calà Lesina, Antonino; Côté, Guillaume; Charron, Martin; Poitras, Daniel; Ramunno, Lora; Berini, Pierre; Weck, Arnaud

2017-01-01

Plasmonic resonances in metallic nanoparticles have been used since antiquity to colour glasses. The use of metal nanostructures for surface colourization has attracted considerable interest following recent developments in plasmonics. However, current top-down colourization methods are not ideally suited to large-scale industrial applications. Here we use a bottom-up approach where picosecond laser pulses can produce a full palette of non-iridescent colours on silver, gold, copper and aluminium. We demonstrate the process on silver coins weighing up to 5 kg and bearing large topographic variations (∼1.5 cm). We find that colours are related to a single parameter, the total accumulated fluence, making the process suitable for high-throughput industrial applications. Statistical image analyses of laser-irradiated surfaces reveal various nanoparticle size distributions. Large-scale finite-difference time-domain computations based on these nanoparticle distributions reproduce trends seen in reflectance measurements, and demonstrate the key role of plasmonic resonances in colour formation. PMID:28719576

Skyscape Archaeology: an emerging interdiscipline for archaeoastronomers and archaeologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henty, Liz

2016-02-01

For historical reasons archaeoastronomy and archaeology differ in their approach to prehistoric monuments and this has created a divide between the disciplines which adopt seemingly incompatible methodologies. The reasons behind the impasse will be explored to show how these different approaches gave rise to their respective methods. Archaeology investigations tend to concentrate on single site analysis whereas archaeoastronomical surveys tend to be data driven from the examination of a large number of similar sets. A comparison will be made between traditional archaeoastronomical data gathering and an emerging methodology which looks at sites on a small scale and combines archaeology and astronomy. Silva's recent research in Portugal and this author's survey in Scotland have explored this methodology and termed it skyscape archaeology. This paper argues that this type of phenomenological skyscape archaeology offers an alternative to large scale statistical studies which analyse astronomical data obtained from a large number of superficially similar archaeological sites.

The large-scale correlations of multicell densities and profiles: implications for cosmic variance estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codis, Sandrine; Bernardeau, Francis; Pichon, Christophe

2016-08-01

In order to quantify the error budget in the measured probability distribution functions of cell densities, the two-point statistics of cosmic densities in concentric spheres is investigated. Bias functions are introduced as the ratio of their two-point correlation function to the two-point correlation of the underlying dark matter distribution. They describe how cell densities are spatially correlated. They are computed here via the so-called large deviation principle in the quasi-linear regime. Their large-separation limit is presented and successfully compared to simulations for density and density slopes: this regime is shown to be rapidly reached allowing to get sub-percent precision for a wide range of densities and variances. The corresponding asymptotic limit provides an estimate of the cosmic variance of standard concentric cell statistics applied to finite surveys. More generally, no assumption on the separation is required for some specific moments of the two-point statistics, for instance when predicting the generating function of cumulants containing any powers of concentric densities in one location and one power of density at some arbitrary distance from the rest. This exact `one external leg' cumulant generating function is used in particular to probe the rate of convergence of the large-separation approximation.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.

PubMed

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J

2017-03-07

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

Automatic location of L/H transition times for physical studies with a large statistical basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, S.; Vega, J.; Murari, A.; Pereira, A.; Dormido-Canto, S.; Ramírez, J. M.; contributors, JET-EFDA

2012-06-01

Completely automatic techniques to estimate and validate L/H transition times can be essential in L/H transition analyses. The generation of databases with hundreds of transition times and without human intervention is an important step to accomplish (a) L/H transition physics analysis, (b) validation of L/H theoretical models and (c) creation of L/H scaling laws. An entirely unattended methodology is presented in this paper to build large databases of transition times in JET using time series. The proposed technique has been applied to a dataset of 551 JET discharges between campaigns C21 and C26. A prediction with discharges that show a clear signature in time series is made through the locating properties of the wavelet transform. It is an accurate prediction and the uncertainty interval is ±3.2 ms. The discharges with a non-clear pattern in the time series use an L/H mode classifier based on discharges with a clear signature. In this case, the estimation error shows a distribution with mean and standard deviation of 27.9 ms and 37.62 ms, respectively. Two different regression methods have been applied to the measurements acquired at the transition times identified by the automatic system. The obtained scaling laws for the threshold power are not significantly different from those obtained using the data at the transition times determined manually by the experts. The automatic methods allow performing physical studies with a large number of discharges, showing, for example, that there are statistically different types of transitions characterized by different scaling laws.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns

PubMed Central

Mickley, Loretta J.

2017-01-01

We develop a statistical model to predict June–July–August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean–atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region. PMID:28223483

Statistical properties of Faraday rotation measure in external galaxies - I. Intervening disc galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Aritra; Mao, S. A.; Fletcher, Andrew; Kanekar, Nissim; Shukurov, Anvar; Schnitzeler, Dominic; Vacca, Valentina; Junklewitz, Henrik

2018-06-01

Deriving the Faraday rotation measure (RM) of quasar absorption line systems, which are tracers of high-redshift galaxies intervening background quasars, is a powerful tool for probing magnetic fields in distant galaxies. Statistically comparing the RM distributions of two quasar samples, with and without absorption line systems, allows one to infer magnetic field properties of the intervening galaxy population. Here, we have derived the analytical form of the probability distribution function (PDF) of RM produced by a single galaxy with an axisymmetric large-scale magnetic field. We then further determine the PDF of RM for one random sight line traversing each galaxy in a population with a large-scale magnetic field prescription. We find that the resulting PDF of RM is dominated by a Lorentzian with a width that is directly related to the mean axisymmetric large-scale field strength of the galaxy population if the dispersion of B0 within the population is smaller than . Provided that RMs produced by the intervening galaxies have been successfully isolated from other RM contributions along the line of sight, our simple model suggests that in galaxies probed by quasar absorption line systems can be measured within ≈50 per cent accuracy without additional constraints on the magneto-ionic medium properties of the galaxies. Finally, we discuss quasar sample selection criteria that are crucial to reliably interpret observations, and argue that within the limitations of the current data base of absorption line systems, high-metallicity damped Lyman-α absorbers are best suited to study galactic dynamo action in distant disc galaxies.

Hunting high and low: disentangling primordial and late-time non-Gaussianity with cosmic densities in spheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhlemann, C.; Pajer, E.; Pichon, C.; Nishimichi, T.; Codis, S.; Bernardeau, F.

2018-03-01

Non-Gaussianities of dynamical origin are disentangled from primordial ones using the formalism of large deviation statistics with spherical collapse dynamics. This is achieved by relying on accurate analytical predictions for the one-point probability distribution function and the two-point clustering of spherically averaged cosmic densities (sphere bias). Sphere bias extends the idea of halo bias to intermediate density environments and voids as underdense regions. In the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity, sphere bias displays a strong scale dependence relevant for both high- and low-density regions, which is predicted analytically. The statistics of densities in spheres are built to model primordial non-Gaussianity via an initial skewness with a scale dependence that depends on the bispectrum of the underlying model. The analytical formulas with the measured non-linear dark matter variance as input are successfully tested against numerical simulations. For local non-Gaussianity with a range from fNL = -100 to +100, they are found to agree within 2 per cent or better for densities ρ ∈ [0.5, 3] in spheres of radius 15 Mpc h-1 down to z = 0.35. The validity of the large deviation statistics formalism is thereby established for all observationally relevant local-type departures from perfectly Gaussian initial conditions. The corresponding estimators for the amplitude of the non-linear variance σ8 and primordial skewness fNL are validated using a fiducial joint maximum likelihood experiment. The influence of observational effects and the prospects for a future detection of primordial non-Gaussianity from joint one- and two-point densities-in-spheres statistics are discussed.

An Eulerian time filtering technique to study large-scale transient flow phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanierschot, Maarten; Persoons, Tim; van den Bulck, Eric

2009-10-01

Unsteady fluctuating velocity fields can contain large-scale periodic motions with frequencies well separated from those of turbulence. Examples are the wake behind a cylinder or the processing vortex core in a swirling jet. These turbulent flow fields contain large-scale, low-frequency oscillations, which are obscured by turbulence, making it impossible to identify them. In this paper, we present an Eulerian time filtering (ETF) technique to extract the large-scale motions from unsteady statistical non-stationary velocity fields or flow fields with multiple phenomena that have sufficiently separated spectral content. The ETF method is based on non-causal time filtering of the velocity records in each point of the flow field. It is shown that the ETF technique gives good results, similar to the ones obtained by the phase-averaging method. In this paper, not only the influence of the temporal filter is checked, but also parameters such as the cut-off frequency and sampling frequency of the data are investigated. The technique is validated on a selected set of time-resolved stereoscopic particle image velocimetry measurements such as the initial region of an annular jet and the transition between flow patterns in an annular jet. The major advantage of the ETF method in the extraction of large scales is that it is computationally less expensive and it requires less measurement time compared to other extraction methods. Therefore, the technique is suitable in the startup phase of an experiment or in a measurement campaign where several experiments are needed such as parametric studies.

MHD Turbulence and Magnetic Dynamos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shebalin, John V

2014-01-01

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Natural streamflow simulation for two largest river basins in Poland: a baseline for identification of flow alterations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piniewski, Mikołaj

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to apply a previously developed large-scale and high-resolution SWAT model of the Vistula and the Odra basins, calibrated with the focus of natural flow simulation, in order to assess the impact of three different dam reservoirs on streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). A tailored spatial calibration approach was designed, in which calibration was focused on a large set of relatively small non-nested sub-catchments with semi-natural flow regime. These were classified into calibration clusters based on the flow statistics similarity. After performing calibration and validation that gave overall positive results, the calibrated parameter values were transferred to the remaining part of the basins using an approach based on hydrological similarity of donor and target catchments. The calibrated model was applied in three case studies with the purpose of assessing the effect of dam reservoirs (Włocławek, Siemianówka and Czorsztyn Reservoirs) on streamflow alteration. Both the assessment based on gauged streamflow (Before-After design) and the one based on simulated natural streamflow showed large alterations in selected flow statistics related to magnitude, duration, high and low flow pulses and rate of change. Some benefits of using a large-scale and high-resolution hydrological model for the assessment of streamflow alteration include: (1) providing an alternative or complementary approach to the classical Before-After designs, (2) isolating the climate variability effect from the dam (or any other source of alteration) effect, (3) providing a practical tool that can be applied at a range of spatial scales over large area such as a country, in a uniform way. Thus, presented approach can be applied for designing more natural flow regimes, which is crucial for river and floodplain ecosystem restoration in the context of the European Union's policy on environmental flows.

Application of multivariate statistical techniques in microbial ecology

PubMed Central

Paliy, O.; Shankar, V.

2016-01-01

Recent advances in high-throughput methods of molecular analyses have led to an explosion of studies generating large scale ecological datasets. Especially noticeable effect has been attained in the field of microbial ecology, where new experimental approaches provided in-depth assessments of the composition, functions, and dynamic changes of complex microbial communities. Because even a single high-throughput experiment produces large amounts of data, powerful statistical techniques of multivariate analysis are well suited to analyze and interpret these datasets. Many different multivariate techniques are available, and often it is not clear which method should be applied to a particular dataset. In this review we describe and compare the most widely used multivariate statistical techniques including exploratory, interpretive, and discriminatory procedures. We consider several important limitations and assumptions of these methods, and we present examples of how these approaches have been utilized in recent studies to provide insight into the ecology of the microbial world. Finally, we offer suggestions for the selection of appropriate methods based on the research question and dataset structure. PMID:26786791

Estimating the impact of mineral aerosols on crop yields in food insecure regions using statistical crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, A.; Forest, C. E.; Kemanian, A.

2016-12-01

A significant number of food-insecure nations exist in regions of the world where dust plays a large role in the climate system. While the impacts of common climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, ozone, and carbon dioxide) on crop yields are relatively well understood, the impact of mineral aerosols on yields have not yet been thoroughly investigated. This research aims to develop the data and tools to progress our understanding of mineral aerosol impacts on crop yields. Suspended dust affects crop yields by altering the amount and type of radiation reaching the plant, modifying local temperature and precipitation. While dust events (i.e. dust storms) affect crop yields by depleting the soil of nutrients or by defoliation via particle abrasion. The impact of dust on yields is modeled statistically because we are uncertain which impacts will dominate the response on national and regional scales considered in this study. Multiple linear regression is used in a number of large-scale statistical crop modeling studies to estimate yield responses to various climate variables. In alignment with previous work, we develop linear crop models, but build upon this simple method of regression with machine-learning techniques (e.g. random forests) to identify important statistical predictors and isolate how dust affects yields on the scales of interest. To perform this analysis, we develop a crop-climate dataset for maize, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, rice, and wheat for the regions of West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, and the Sahel. Random forest regression models consistently model historic crop yields better than the linear models. In several instances, the random forest models accurately capture the temperature and precipitation threshold behavior in crops. Additionally, improving agricultural technology has caused a well-documented positive trend that dominates time series of global and regional yields. This trend is often removed before regression with traditional crop models, but likely at the cost of removing climate information. Our random forest models consistently discover the positive trend without removing any additional data. The application of random forests as a statistical crop model provides insight into understanding the impact of dust on yields in marginal food producing regions.

Development of a database system for mapping insertional mutations onto the mouse genome with large-scale experimental data

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Insertional mutagenesis is an effective method for functional genomic studies in various organisms. It can rapidly generate easily tractable mutations. A large-scale insertional mutagenesis with the piggyBac (PB) transposon is currently performed in mice at the Institute of Developmental Biology and Molecular Medicine (IDM), Fudan University in Shanghai, China. This project is carried out via collaborations among multiple groups overseeing interconnected experimental steps and generates a large volume of experimental data continuously. Therefore, the project calls for an efficient database system for recording, management, statistical analysis, and information exchange. Results This paper presents a database application called MP-PBmice (insertional mutation mapping system of PB Mutagenesis Information Center), which is developed to serve the on-going large-scale PB insertional mutagenesis project. A lightweight enterprise-level development framework Struts-Spring-Hibernate is used here to ensure constructive and flexible support to the application. The MP-PBmice database system has three major features: strict access-control, efficient workflow control, and good expandability. It supports the collaboration among different groups that enter data and exchange information on daily basis, and is capable of providing real time progress reports for the whole project. MP-PBmice can be easily adapted for other large-scale insertional mutation mapping projects and the source code of this software is freely available at http://www.idmshanghai.cn/PBmice. Conclusion MP-PBmice is a web-based application for large-scale insertional mutation mapping onto the mouse genome, implemented with the widely used framework Struts-Spring-Hibernate. This system is already in use by the on-going genome-wide PB insertional mutation mapping project at IDM, Fudan University. PMID:19958505

Large-Scale Optimization for Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willcox, Karen; Marzouk, Youssef

2013-11-12

The SAGUARO (Scalable Algorithms for Groundwater Uncertainty Analysis and Robust Optimization) Project focused on the development of scalable numerical algorithms for large-scale Bayesian inversion in complex systems that capitalize on advances in large-scale simulation-based optimization and inversion methods. The project was a collaborative effort among MIT, the University of Texas at Austin, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Sandia National Laboratories. The research was directed in three complementary areas: efficient approximations of the Hessian operator, reductions in complexity of forward simulations via stochastic spectral approximations and model reduction, and employing large-scale optimization concepts to accelerate sampling. The MIT--Sandia component of themore » SAGUARO Project addressed the intractability of conventional sampling methods for large-scale statistical inverse problems by devising reduced-order models that are faithful to the full-order model over a wide range of parameter values; sampling then employs the reduced model rather than the full model, resulting in very large computational savings. Results indicate little effect on the computed posterior distribution. On the other hand, in the Texas--Georgia Tech component of the project, we retain the full-order model, but exploit inverse problem structure (adjoint-based gradients and partial Hessian information of the parameter-to-observation map) to implicitly extract lower dimensional information on the posterior distribution; this greatly speeds up sampling methods, so that fewer sampling points are needed. We can think of these two approaches as ``reduce then sample'' and ``sample then reduce.'' In fact, these two approaches are complementary, and can be used in conjunction with each other. Moreover, they both exploit deterministic inverse problem structure, in the form of adjoint-based gradient and Hessian information of the underlying parameter-to-observation map, to achieve their speedups.« less

Final Report: Large-Scale Optimization for Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghattas, Omar

2013-10-15

The SAGUARO (Scalable Algorithms for Groundwater Uncertainty Analysis and Robust Optimiza- tion) Project focuses on the development of scalable numerical algorithms for large-scale Bayesian inversion in complex systems that capitalize on advances in large-scale simulation-based optimiza- tion and inversion methods. Our research is directed in three complementary areas: efficient approximations of the Hessian operator, reductions in complexity of forward simulations via stochastic spectral approximations and model reduction, and employing large-scale optimization concepts to accelerate sampling. Our efforts are integrated in the context of a challenging testbed problem that considers subsurface reacting flow and transport. The MIT component of the SAGUAROmore » Project addresses the intractability of conventional sampling methods for large-scale statistical inverse problems by devising reduced-order models that are faithful to the full-order model over a wide range of parameter values; sampling then employs the reduced model rather than the full model, resulting in very large computational savings. Results indicate little effect on the computed posterior distribution. On the other hand, in the Texas-Georgia Tech component of the project, we retain the full-order model, but exploit inverse problem structure (adjoint-based gradients and partial Hessian information of the parameter-to- observation map) to implicitly extract lower dimensional information on the posterior distribution; this greatly speeds up sampling methods, so that fewer sampling points are needed. We can think of these two approaches as "reduce then sample" and "sample then reduce." In fact, these two approaches are complementary, and can be used in conjunction with each other. Moreover, they both exploit deterministic inverse problem structure, in the form of adjoint-based gradient and Hessian information of the underlying parameter-to-observation map, to achieve their speedups.« less

Development and Evaluation of Season-ahead Precipitation and Streamflow Predictions for Sectoral Management in Western Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, P. J.; Alexander, S.; WU, S.

2017-12-01

Skillful season-ahead predictions conditioned on local and large-scale hydro-climate variables can provide valuable knowledge to farmers and reservoir operators, enabling informed water resource allocation and management decisions. In Ethiopia, the potential for advancing agriculture and hydropower management, and subsequently economic growth, is substantial, yet evidence suggests a weak adoption of prediction information by sectoral audiences. To address common critiques, including skill, scale, and uncertainty, probabilistic forecasts are developed at various scales - temporally and spatially - for the Finchaa hydropower dam and the Koga agricultural scheme in an attempt to promote uptake and application. Significant prediction skill is evident across scales, particularly for statistical models. This raises questions regarding other potential barriers to forecast utilization at community scales, which are also addressed.

Evaluation of Penalized and Nonpenalized Methods for Disease Prediction with Large-Scale Genetic Data.

PubMed

Won, Sungho; Choi, Hosik; Park, Suyeon; Lee, Juyoung; Park, Changyi; Kwon, Sunghoon

2015-01-01

Owing to recent improvement of genotyping technology, large-scale genetic data can be utilized to identify disease susceptibility loci and this successful finding has substantially improved our understanding of complex diseases. However, in spite of these successes, most of the genetic effects for many complex diseases were found to be very small, which have been a big hurdle to build disease prediction model. Recently, many statistical methods based on penalized regressions have been proposed to tackle the so-called "large P and small N" problem. Penalized regressions including least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) and ridge regression limit the space of parameters, and this constraint enables the estimation of effects for very large number of SNPs. Various extensions have been suggested, and, in this report, we compare their accuracy by applying them to several complex diseases. Our results show that penalized regressions are usually robust and provide better accuracy than the existing methods for at least diseases under consideration.

Mapping regional patterns of large forest fires in Wildland-Urban Interface areas in Europe.

PubMed

Modugno, Sirio; Balzter, Heiko; Cole, Beth; Borrelli, Pasquale

2016-05-01

Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland-Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Phenomenology of Small-Scale Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreenivasan, K. R.; Antonia, R. A.

I have sometimes thought that what makes a man's work classic is often just this multiplicity [of interpretations], which invites and at the same time resists our craving for a clear understanding. Wright (1982, p. 34), on Wittgenstein's philosophy Small-scale turbulence has been an area of especially active research in the recent past, and several useful research directions have been pursued. Here, we selectively review this work. The emphasis is on scaling phenomenology and kinematics of small-scale structure. After providing a brief introduction to the classical notions of universality due to Kolmogorov and others, we survey the existing work on intermittency, refined similarity hypotheses, anomalous scaling exponents, derivative statistics, intermittency models, and the structure and kinematics of small-scale structure - the latter aspect coming largely from the direct numerical simulation of homogeneous turbulence in a periodic box.

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Dynamic structural disorder in supported nanoscale catalysts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehr, J. J.; Vila, F. D.

2014-04-01

We investigate the origin and physical effects of "dynamic structural disorder" (DSD) in supported nano-scale catalysts. DSD refers to the intrinsic fluctuating, inhomogeneous structure of such nano-scale systems. In contrast to bulk materials, nano-scale systems exhibit substantial fluctuations in structure, charge, temperature, and other quantities, as well as large surface effects. The DSD is driven largely by the stochastic librational motion of the center of mass and fluxional bonding at the nanoparticle surface due to thermal coupling with the substrate. Our approach for calculating and understanding DSD is based on a combination of real-time density functional theory/molecular dynamics simulations, transient coupled-oscillator models, and statistical mechanics. This approach treats thermal and dynamic effects over multiple time-scales, and includes bond-stretching and -bending vibrations, and transient tethering to the substrate at longer ps time-scales. Potential effects on the catalytic properties of these clusters are briefly explored. Model calculations of molecule-cluster interactions and molecular dissociation reaction paths are presented in which the reactant molecules are adsorbed on the surface of dynamically sampled clusters. This model suggests that DSD can affect both the prefactors and distribution of energy barriers in reaction rates, and thus can significantly affect catalytic activity at the nano-scale.

Effect of artificial length scales in large eddy simulation of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer flow: A simple solution to log-layer mismatch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Tanmoy; Peet, Yulia T.

2017-07-01

A large eddy simulation (LES) methodology coupled with near-wall modeling has been implemented in the current study for high Re neutral atmospheric boundary layer flows using an exponentially accurate spectral element method in an open-source research code Nek 5000. The effect of artificial length scales due to subgrid scale (SGS) and near wall modeling (NWM) on the scaling laws and structure of the inner and outer layer eddies is studied using varying SGS and NWM parameters in the spectral element framework. The study provides an understanding of the various length scales and dynamics of the eddies affected by the LES model and also the fundamental physics behind the inner and outer layer eddies which are responsible for the correct behavior of the mean statistics in accordance with the definition of equilibrium layers by Townsend. An economical and accurate LES model based on capturing the near wall coherent eddies has been designed, which is successful in eliminating the artificial length scale effects like the log-layer mismatch or the secondary peak generation in the streamwise variance.

Exploration–exploitation trade-off features a saltatory search behaviour

PubMed Central

Volchenkov, Dimitri; Helbach, Jonathan; Tscherepanow, Marko; Kühnel, Sina

2013-01-01

Searching experiments conducted in different virtual environments over a gender-balanced group of people revealed a gender irrelevant scale-free spread of searching activity on large spatio-temporal scales. We have suggested and solved analytically a simple statistical model of the coherent-noise type describing the exploration–exploitation trade-off in humans (‘should I stay’ or ‘should I go’). The model exhibits a variety of saltatory behaviours, ranging from Lévy flights occurring under uncertainty to Brownian walks performed by a treasure hunter confident of the eventual success. PMID:23782535

Using SQL Databases for Sequence Similarity Searching and Analysis.

PubMed

Pearson, William R; Mackey, Aaron J

2017-09-13

Relational databases can integrate diverse types of information and manage large sets of similarity search results, greatly simplifying genome-scale analyses. By focusing on taxonomic subsets of sequences, relational databases can reduce the size and redundancy of sequence libraries and improve the statistical significance of homologs. In addition, by loading similarity search results into a relational database, it becomes possible to explore and summarize the relationships between all of the proteins in an organism and those in other biological kingdoms. This unit describes how to use relational databases to improve the efficiency of sequence similarity searching and demonstrates various large-scale genomic analyses of homology-related data. It also describes the installation and use of a simple protein sequence database, seqdb_demo, which is used as a basis for the other protocols. The unit also introduces search_demo, a database that stores sequence similarity search results. The search_demo database is then used to explore the evolutionary relationships between E. coli proteins and proteins in other organisms in a large-scale comparative genomic analysis. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Relationship of epithermal gold deposits to large-scale fractures in northern Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ponce, D.A.; Glen, J.M.G.

2002-01-01

Geophysical maps of northern Nevada reveal at least three and possibly six large-scale arcuate features, one of which corresponds to the northern Nevada rift that possibly extends more than 1,000 km from the Oregon- Idaho border to southern Nevada. These features may reflect deep discontinuities within the earth's crust, possibly related to the impact of the Yellowstone hot spot. Because mid-Miocene epithermal gold deposits have been shown to correlate with the northern Nevada rift, we investigate the association of other epithermal gold deposits to other similar arcuate features in northern Nevada. Mid-Miocene and younger epithermal gold- silver deposits also occur along two prominent aeromagnetic anomalies west of the northern Nevada rift. Here, we speculate that mid-Miocene deposits formed along deep fractures in association with mid-Miocene rift- related magmatism and that younger deposits preferentially followed these preexisting features. Statistical analysis of the proximity of epithermal gold deposits to these features suggests that epithermal gold deposits in northern Nevada are spatially associated with large-scale crustal features interpreted from geophysical data.

Prediction of rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over the Southern Amazonia using machine learning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, X.; Zhang, K.; Zhuang, Y.; Fu, R.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Seasonal prediction of rainfall during the dry-to-wet transition season in austral spring (September-November) over southern Amazonia is central for improving planting crops and fire mitigation in that region. Previous studies have identified the key large-scale atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamics pre-conditions during the dry season (June-August) that influence the rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over Southern Amazonia. Based on these key pre-conditions during dry season, we have evaluated several statistical models and developed a Neural Network based statistical prediction system to predict rainfall during the dry to wet transition for Southern Amazonia (5-15°S, 50-70°W). Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis is applied to the following four fields during JJA from the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) spanning from year 1979 to 2015: geopotential height at 200 hPa, surface relative humidity, convective inhibition energy (CIN) index and convective available potential energy (CAPE), to filter out noise and highlight the most coherent spatial and temporal variations. The first 10 EOF modes are retained for inputs to the statistical models, accounting for at least 70% of the total variance in the predictor fields. We have tested several linear and non-linear statistical methods. While the regularized Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression can generally capture the spatial pattern and magnitude of rainfall anomalies, we found that that Neural Network performs best with an accuracy greater than 80%, as expected from the non-linear dependence of the rainfall on the large-scale atmospheric thermodynamic conditions and circulation. Further tests of various prediction skill metrics and hindcasts also suggest this Neural Network prediction approach can significantly improve seasonal prediction skill than the dynamic predictions and regression based statistical predictions. Thus, this statistical prediction system could have shown potential to improve real-time seasonal rainfall predictions in the future.

Intermittent electron density and temperature fluctuations and associated fluxes in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kube, R.; Garcia, O. E.; Theodorsen, A.; Brunner, D.; Kuang, A. Q.; LaBombard, B.; Terry, J. L.

2018-06-01

The Alcator C-Mod mirror Langmuir probe system has been used to sample data time series of fluctuating plasma parameters in the outboard mid-plane far scrape-off layer. We present a statistical analysis of one second long time series of electron density, temperature, radial electric drift velocity and the corresponding particle and electron heat fluxes. These are sampled during stationary plasma conditions in an ohmically heated, lower single null diverted discharge. The electron density and temperature are strongly correlated and feature fluctuation statistics similar to the ion saturation current. Both electron density and temperature time series are dominated by intermittent, large-amplitude burst with an exponential distribution of both burst amplitudes and waiting times between them. The characteristic time scale of the large-amplitude bursts is approximately 15 μ {{s}}. Large-amplitude velocity fluctuations feature a slightly faster characteristic time scale and appear at a faster rate than electron density and temperature fluctuations. Describing these time series as a superposition of uncorrelated exponential pulses, we find that probability distribution functions, power spectral densities as well as auto-correlation functions of the data time series agree well with predictions from the stochastic model. The electron particle and heat fluxes present large-amplitude fluctuations. For this low-density plasma, the radial electron heat flux is dominated by convection, that is, correlations of fluctuations in the electron density and radial velocity. Hot and dense blobs contribute only a minute fraction of the total fluctuation driven heat flux.

Large-scale parentage inference with SNPs: an efficient algorithm for statistical confidence of parent pair allocations.

PubMed

Anderson, Eric C

2012-11-08

Advances in genotyping that allow tens of thousands of individuals to be genotyped at a moderate number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) permit parentage inference to be pursued on a very large scale. The intergenerational tagging this capacity allows is revolutionizing the management of cultured organisms (cows, salmon, etc.) and is poised to do the same for scientific studies of natural populations. Currently, however, there are no likelihood-based methods of parentage inference which are implemented in a manner that allows them to quickly handle a very large number of potential parents or parent pairs. Here we introduce an efficient likelihood-based method applicable to the specialized case of cultured organisms in which both parents can be reliably sampled. We develop a Markov chain representation for the cumulative number of Mendelian incompatibilities between an offspring and its putative parents and we exploit it to develop a fast algorithm for simulation-based estimates of statistical confidence in SNP-based assignments of offspring to pairs of parents. The method is implemented in the freely available software SNPPIT. We describe the method in detail, then assess its performance in a large simulation study using known allele frequencies at 96 SNPs from ten hatchery salmon populations. The simulations verify that the method is fast and accurate and that 96 well-chosen SNPs can provide sufficient power to identify the correct pair of parents from amongst millions of candidate pairs.

Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzanas, R.; Lucero, A.; Weisheimer, A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2018-02-01

Statistical downscaling methods are popular post-processing tools which are widely used in many sectors to adapt the coarse-resolution biased outputs from global climate simulations to the regional-to-local scale typically required by users. They range from simple and pragmatic Bias Correction (BC) methods, which directly adjust the model outputs of interest (e.g. precipitation) according to the available local observations, to more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) ones, which indirectly derive local predictions (e.g. precipitation) from appropriate upper-air large-scale model variables (predictors). Statistical downscaling methods have been extensively used and critically assessed in climate change applications; however, their advantages and limitations in seasonal forecasting are not well understood yet. In particular, a key problem in this context is whether they serve to improve the forecast quality/skill of raw model outputs beyond the adjustment of their systematic biases. In this paper we analyze this issue by applying two state-of-the-art BC and two PP methods to downscale precipitation from a multimodel seasonal hindcast in a challenging tropical region, the Philippines. To properly assess the potential added value beyond the reduction of model biases, we consider two validation scores which are not sensitive to changes in the mean (correlation and reliability categories). Our results show that, whereas BC methods maintain or worsen the skill of the raw model forecasts, PP methods can yield significant skill improvement (worsening) in cases for which the large-scale predictor variables considered are better (worse) predicted by the model than precipitation. For instance, PP methods are found to increase (decrease) model reliability in nearly 40% of the stations considered in boreal summer (autumn). Therefore, the choice of a convenient downscaling approach (either BC or PP) depends on the region and the season.

Large-scale galaxy bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Donghui; Desjacques, Vincent; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-01-01

Here, we briefly introduce the key results of the recent review (arXiv:1611.09787), whose abstract is as following. This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy (or halo) statistics. We then review the excursion set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

Large-scale galaxy bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desjacques, Vincent; Jeong, Donghui; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-02-01

This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy statistics. We then review the excursion-set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

Transition from lognormal to χ2-superstatistics for financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Dan; Beck, Christian

2016-07-01

Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time scales. It is shown that while χ2-superstatistics works well on a time scale of days, on a much smaller time scale of minutes the price changes are better described by lognormal superstatistics. The system dynamics thus exhibits a transition from lognormal to χ2 superstatistics as a function of time scale. We discuss a more general model interpolating between both statistics which fits the observed data very well. We also present results on correlation functions of the extracted superstatistical volatility parameter, which exhibits exponential decay for returns on large time scales, whereas for returns on small time scales there are long-range correlations and power-law decay.

Extreme value statistics for two-dimensional convective penetration in a pre-main sequence star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratt, J.; Baraffe, I.; Goffrey, T.; Constantino, T.; Viallet, M.; Popov, M. V.; Walder, R.; Folini, D.

2017-08-01

Context. In the interior of stars, a convectively unstable zone typically borders a zone that is stable to convection. Convective motions can penetrate the boundary between these zones, creating a layer characterized by intermittent convective mixing, and gradual erosion of the density and temperature stratification. Aims: We examine a penetration layer formed between a central radiative zone and a large convection zone in the deep interior of a young low-mass star. Using the Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC) to simulate two-dimensional compressible stellar convection in a spherical geometry over long times, we produce statistics that characterize the extent and impact of convective penetration in this layer. Methods: We apply extreme value theory to the maximal extent of convective penetration at any time. We compare statistical results from simulations which treat non-local convection, throughout a large portion of the stellar radius, with simulations designed to treat local convection in a small region surrounding the penetration layer. For each of these situations, we compare simulations of different resolution, which have different velocity magnitudes. We also compare statistical results between simulations that radiate energy at a constant rate to those that allow energy to radiate from the stellar surface according to the local surface temperature. Results: Based on the frequency and depth of penetrating convective structures, we observe two distinct layers that form between the convection zone and the stable radiative zone. We show that the probability density function of the maximal depth of convective penetration at any time corresponds closely in space with the radial position where internal waves are excited. We find that the maximal penetration depth can be modeled by a Weibull distribution with a small shape parameter. Using these results, and building on established scalings for diffusion enhanced by large-scale convective motions, we propose a new form for the diffusion coefficient that may be used for one-dimensional stellar evolution calculations in the large Péclet number regime. These results should contribute to the 321D link.

A Correlation between the Higgs Mass and Dark Matter

DOE PAGES

Hertzberg, Mark P.

2017-07-27

Depending on the value of the Higgs mass, the Standard Model acquires an unstable region at large Higgs field values due to RG running of couplings, which we evaluate at 2-loop order. For currently favored values of the Higgs mass, this renders the electroweak vacuum only metastable with a long lifetime. We argue on statistical grounds that the Higgs field would be highly unlikely to begin in the small field metastable region in the early universe, and thus some new physics should enter in the energy range of order of, or lower than, the instability scale to remove the largemore » field unstable region. We assume that Peccei-Quinn (PQ) dynamics enters to solve the strong CP problem and, for a PQ-scale in this energy range, may also remove the unstable region. We allow the PQ-scale to scan and argue, again on statistical grounds, that its value in our universe should be of order of the instability scale, rather than (significantly) lower. Since the Higgs mass determines the instability scale, which is argued to set the PQ-scale, and since the PQ-scale determines the axion properties, including its dark matter abundance, we are led to a correlation between the Higgs mass and the abundance of dark matter. We thus find the correlation to be in good agreement with current data.« less

A Correlation between the Higgs Mass and Dark Matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hertzberg, Mark P.

Depending on the value of the Higgs mass, the Standard Model acquires an unstable region at large Higgs field values due to RG running of couplings, which we evaluate at 2-loop order. For currently favored values of the Higgs mass, this renders the electroweak vacuum only metastable with a long lifetime. We argue on statistical grounds that the Higgs field would be highly unlikely to begin in the small field metastable region in the early universe, and thus some new physics should enter in the energy range of order of, or lower than, the instability scale to remove the largemore » field unstable region. We assume that Peccei-Quinn (PQ) dynamics enters to solve the strong CP problem and, for a PQ-scale in this energy range, may also remove the unstable region. We allow the PQ-scale to scan and argue, again on statistical grounds, that its value in our universe should be of order of the instability scale, rather than (significantly) lower. Since the Higgs mass determines the instability scale, which is argued to set the PQ-scale, and since the PQ-scale determines the axion properties, including its dark matter abundance, we are led to a correlation between the Higgs mass and the abundance of dark matter. We thus find the correlation to be in good agreement with current data.« less

Statistical Maps of Ground Magnetic Disturbance Derived from Global Geospace Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigler, E. J.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Love, J. J.

2017-12-01

Electric currents in space are the principal driver of magnetic variations measured at Earth's surface. These in turn induce geoelectric fields that present a natural hazard for technological systems like high-voltage power distribution networks. Modern global geospace models can reasonably simulate large-scale geomagnetic response to solar wind variations, but they are less successful at deterministic predictions of intense localized geomagnetic activity that most impacts technological systems on the ground. Still, recent studies have shown that these models can accurately reproduce the spatial statistical distributions of geomagnetic activity, suggesting that their physics are largely correct. Since the magnetosphere is a largely externally driven system, most model-measurement discrepancies probably arise from uncertain boundary conditions. So, with realistic distributions of solar wind parameters to establish its boundary conditions, we use the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) geospace model to build a synthetic multivariate statistical model of gridded ground magnetic disturbance. From this, we analyze the spatial modes of geomagnetic response, regress on available measurements to fill in unsampled locations on the grid, and estimate the global probability distribution of extreme magnetic disturbance. The latter offers a prototype geomagnetic "hazard map", similar to those used to characterize better-known geophysical hazards like earthquakes and floods.

Spline analysis of the mandible in human subjects with class III malocclusion.

PubMed

Singh, G D; McNamara, J A; Lozanoff, S

1997-05-01

This study determines deformations that contribute to a Class III mandibular morphology, employing thin-plate spline (TPS) analysis. A total of 133 lateral cephalographs of prepubertal children of European-American descent with either a Class I molar occlusion or a Class III malocclusion were compared. The cephalographs were traced and checked, and eight homologous landmarks on the mandible were identified and digitized. The datasets were scaled to an equivalent size and subjected to statistical analyses. These tests indicated significant differences between average Class I and Class III mandibular morphologies. When the sample was subdivided into seven age and sex-matched groups statistical differences were maintained for each group. TPS analysis indicated that both affine (uniform) and non-affine transformations contribute towards the total spline, and towards the average mandibular morphology at each age group. For non-affine transformations, partial warp 5 had the highest magnitude, indicating large-scale deformations of the mandibular configuration between articulare and pogonion. In contrast, partial warp 1 indicated localized shape changes in the mandibular symphyseal region. It is concluded that large spatial-scale deformations affect the body of the mandible, in combination with localized distortions further anteriorly. These deformations may represent a developmental elongation of the mandibular corpus antero-posteriorly that, allied with symphyseal changes, leads to the appearance of a Class III prognathic mandibular profile.

Process model comparison and transferability across bioreactor scales and modes of operation for a mammalian cell bioprocess.

PubMed

Craven, Stephen; Shirsat, Nishikant; Whelan, Jessica; Glennon, Brian

2013-01-01

A Monod kinetic model, logistic equation model, and statistical regression model were developed for a Chinese hamster ovary cell bioprocess operated under three different modes of operation (batch, bolus fed-batch, and continuous fed-batch) and grown on two different bioreactor scales (3 L bench-top and 15 L pilot-scale). The Monod kinetic model was developed for all modes of operation under study and predicted cell density, glucose glutamine, lactate, and ammonia concentrations well for the bioprocess. However, it was computationally demanding due to the large number of parameters necessary to produce a good model fit. The transferability of the Monod kinetic model structure and parameter set across bioreactor scales and modes of operation was investigated and a parameter sensitivity analysis performed. The experimentally determined parameters had the greatest influence on model performance. They changed with scale and mode of operation, but were easily calculated. The remaining parameters, which were fitted using a differential evolutionary algorithm, were not as crucial. Logistic equation and statistical regression models were investigated as alternatives to the Monod kinetic model. They were less computationally intensive to develop due to the absence of a large parameter set. However, modeling of the nutrient and metabolite concentrations proved to be troublesome due to the logistic equation model structure and the inability of both models to incorporate a feed. The complexity, computational load, and effort required for model development has to be balanced with the necessary level of model sophistication when choosing which model type to develop for a particular application. Copyright © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE).

Ensuring Positiveness of the Scaled Difference Chi-square Test Statistic.

PubMed

Satorra, Albert; Bentler, Peter M

2010-06-01

A scaled difference test statistic [Formula: see text] that can be computed from standard software of structural equation models (SEM) by hand calculations was proposed in Satorra and Bentler (2001). The statistic [Formula: see text] is asymptotically equivalent to the scaled difference test statistic T̄(d) introduced in Satorra (2000), which requires more involved computations beyond standard output of SEM software. The test statistic [Formula: see text] has been widely used in practice, but in some applications it is negative due to negativity of its associated scaling correction. Using the implicit function theorem, this note develops an improved scaling correction leading to a new scaled difference statistic T̄(d) that avoids negative chi-square values.

A conditional approach to determining the effect of anthropogenic climate change on very rare events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Pall, Pardeep; Zarzycki, Colin; Stone, Daithi

2016-04-01

Probabilistic extreme event attribution is especially difficult for weather events that are caused by extremely rare large-scale meteorological patterns. Traditional modeling techniques have involved using ensembles of climate models, either fully coupled or with prescribed ocean and sea ice. Ensemble sizes for the latter case ranges from several 100 to tens of thousand. However, even if the simulations are constrained by the observed ocean state, the requisite large-scale meteorological pattern may not occur frequently enough or even at all in free running climate model simulations. We present a method to ensure that simulated events similar to the observed event are modeled with enough fidelity that robust statistics can be determined given the large scale meteorological conditions. By initializing suitably constrained short term ensemble hindcasts of both the actual weather system and a counterfactual weather system where the human interference in the climate system is removed, the human contribution to the magnitude of the event can be determined. However, the change (if any) in the probability of an event of the observed magnitude is conditional not only on the state of the ocean/sea ice system but also on the prescribed initial conditions determined by the causal large scale meteorological pattern. We will discuss the implications of this technique through two examples; the 2013 Colorado flood and the 2014 Typhoon Haiyan.

Towards Development of Clustering Applications for Large-Scale Comparative Genotyping and Kinship Analysis Using Y-Short Tandem Repeats.

PubMed

Seman, Ali; Sapawi, Azizian Mohd; Salleh, Mohd Zaki

2015-06-01

Y-chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are genetic markers with practical applications in human identification. However, where mass identification is required (e.g., in the aftermath of disasters with significant fatalities), the efficiency of the process could be improved with new statistical approaches. Clustering applications are relatively new tools for large-scale comparative genotyping, and the k-Approximate Modal Haplotype (k-AMH), an efficient algorithm for clustering large-scale Y-STR data, represents a promising method for developing these tools. In this study we improved the k-AMH and produced three new algorithms: the Nk-AMH I (including a new initial cluster center selection), the Nk-AMH II (including a new dominant weighting value), and the Nk-AMH III (combining I and II). The Nk-AMH III was the superior algorithm, with mean clustering accuracy that increased in four out of six datasets and remained at 100% in the other two. Additionally, the Nk-AMH III achieved a 2% higher overall mean clustering accuracy score than the k-AMH, as well as optimal accuracy for all datasets (0.84-1.00). With inclusion of the two new methods, the Nk-AMH III produced an optimal solution for clustering Y-STR data; thus, the algorithm has potential for further development towards fully automatic clustering of any large-scale genotypic data.

Non-gaussian statistics of pencil beam surveys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amendola, Luca

1994-01-01

We study the effect of the non-Gaussian clustering of galaxies on the statistics of pencil beam surveys. We derive the probability from the power spectrum peaks by means of Edgeworth expansion and find that the higher order moments of the galaxy distribution play a dominant role. The probability of obtaining the 128 Mpc/h periodicity found in pencil beam surveys is raised by more than one order of magnitude, up to 1%. Further data are needed to decide if non-Gaussian distribution alone is sufficient to explain the 128 Mpc/h periodicity, or if extra large-scale power is necessary.

Practical statistics in pain research.

PubMed

Kim, Tae Kyun

2017-10-01

Pain is subjective, while statistics related to pain research are objective. This review was written to help researchers involved in pain research make statistical decisions. The main issues are related with the level of scales that are often used in pain research, the choice of statistical methods between parametric or nonparametric statistics, and problems which arise from repeated measurements. In the field of pain research, parametric statistics used to be applied in an erroneous way. This is closely related with the scales of data and repeated measurements. The level of scales includes nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio scales. The level of scales affects the choice of statistics between parametric or non-parametric methods. In the field of pain research, the most frequently used pain assessment scale is the ordinal scale, which would include the visual analogue scale (VAS). There used to be another view, however, which considered the VAS to be an interval or ratio scale, so that the usage of parametric statistics would be accepted practically in some cases. Repeated measurements of the same subjects always complicates statistics. It means that measurements inevitably have correlations between each other, and would preclude the application of one-way ANOVA in which independence between the measurements is necessary. Repeated measures of ANOVA (RMANOVA), however, would permit the comparison between the correlated measurements as long as the condition of sphericity assumption is satisfied. Conclusively, parametric statistical methods should be used only when the assumptions of parametric statistics, such as normality and sphericity, are established.

Prototype solar house. Study of the scientific evaluation and feasibility of a research and development project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundschuh, V.; Grueter, J. W.; Kleemann, M.; Melis, M.; Stein, H. J.; Wagner, H. J.; Dittrich, A.; Pohlmann, D.

1982-08-01

A preliminary study was undertaken before a large scale project for construction and survey of about a hundred solar houses was launched. The notion of solar house was defined and the use of solar energy (hot water preparation, heating of rooms, heating of swimming pool, or a combination of these possibilities) were examined. A coherent measuring program was set up. Advantages and inconveniences of the large scale project were reviewed. Production of hot water, evaluation of different concepts and different fabrications of solar systems, coverage of the different systems, conservation of energy, failure frequency and failures statistics, durability of the installation, investment maintenance and energy costs were retained as study parameters. Different solar hot water production systems and the heat counter used for measurements are described.

Incorporating linguistic knowledge for learning distributed word representations.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Liu, Zhiyuan; Sun, Maosong

2015-01-01

Combined with neural language models, distributed word representations achieve significant advantages in computational linguistics and text mining. Most existing models estimate distributed word vectors from large-scale data in an unsupervised fashion, which, however, do not take rich linguistic knowledge into consideration. Linguistic knowledge can be represented as either link-based knowledge or preference-based knowledge, and we propose knowledge regularized word representation models (KRWR) to incorporate these prior knowledge for learning distributed word representations. Experiment results demonstrate that our estimated word representation achieves better performance in task of semantic relatedness ranking. This indicates that our methods can efficiently encode both prior knowledge from knowledge bases and statistical knowledge from large-scale text corpora into a unified word representation model, which will benefit many tasks in text mining.

Incorporating Linguistic Knowledge for Learning Distributed Word Representations

PubMed Central

Wang, Yan; Liu, Zhiyuan; Sun, Maosong

2015-01-01

Combined with neural language models, distributed word representations achieve significant advantages in computational linguistics and text mining. Most existing models estimate distributed word vectors from large-scale data in an unsupervised fashion, which, however, do not take rich linguistic knowledge into consideration. Linguistic knowledge can be represented as either link-based knowledge or preference-based knowledge, and we propose knowledge regularized word representation models (KRWR) to incorporate these prior knowledge for learning distributed word representations. Experiment results demonstrate that our estimated word representation achieves better performance in task of semantic relatedness ranking. This indicates that our methods can efficiently encode both prior knowledge from knowledge bases and statistical knowledge from large-scale text corpora into a unified word representation model, which will benefit many tasks in text mining. PMID:25874581

Large-Scale Quantitative Analysis of Painting Arts

PubMed Central

Kim, Daniel; Son, Seung-Woo; Jeong, Hawoong

2014-01-01

Scientists have made efforts to understand the beauty of painting art in their own languages. As digital image acquisition of painting arts has made rapid progress, researchers have come to a point where it is possible to perform statistical analysis of a large-scale database of artistic paints to make a bridge between art and science. Using digital image processing techniques, we investigate three quantitative measures of images – the usage of individual colors, the variety of colors, and the roughness of the brightness. We found a difference in color usage between classical paintings and photographs, and a significantly low color variety of the medieval period. Interestingly, moreover, the increment of roughness exponent as painting techniques such as chiaroscuro and sfumato have advanced is consistent with historical circumstances. PMID:25501877

Detection of large scale geomagnetic pulsations by MAGDAS-egypt stations during the solar minimum of the solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathy, Ibrahim

2016-07-01

This paper presents a statistical study of different types of large-scale geomagnetic pulsation (Pc3, Pc4, Pc5 and Pi2) detected simultaneously by two MAGDAS stations located at Fayum (Geo. Coordinates 29.18 N and 30.50 E) and Aswan (Geo. Coordinates 23.59 N and 32.51 E) in Egypt. The second order butter-worth band-pass filter has been used to filter and analyze the horizontal H-component of the geomagnetic field in one-second data. The data was collected during the solar minimum of the current solar cycle 24. We list the most energetic pulsations detected by the two stations instantaneously, in addition; the average amplitude of the pulsation signals was calculated.

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

PubMed Central

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-01-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1–2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non–self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends—much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems. PMID:23842090

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-07-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1-2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non-self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends-much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems.

AA9int: SNP Interaction Pattern Search Using Non-Hierarchical Additive Model Set.

PubMed

Lin, Hui-Yi; Huang, Po-Yu; Chen, Dung-Tsa; Tung, Heng-Yuan; Sellers, Thomas A; Pow-Sang, Julio; Eeles, Rosalind; Easton, Doug; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Benlloch, Sara; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham G; Wiklund, Fredrik; Gronberg, Henrik; Haiman, Christopher A; Schleutker, Johanna; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Travis, Ruth C; Hamdy, Freddie; Neal, David E; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L; Blot, William J; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Maier, Christiane; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Kaneva, Radka; Batra, Jyotsna; Teixeira, Manuel R; Pandha, Hardev; Lu, Yong-Jie; Park, Jong Y

2018-06-07

The use of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions to predict complex diseases is getting more attention during the past decade, but related statistical methods are still immature. We previously proposed the SNP Interaction Pattern Identifier (SIPI) approach to evaluate 45 SNP interaction patterns/patterns. SIPI is statistically powerful but suffers from a large computation burden. For large-scale studies, it is necessary to use a powerful and computation-efficient method. The objective of this study is to develop an evidence-based mini-version of SIPI as the screening tool or solitary use and to evaluate the impact of inheritance mode and model structure on detecting SNP-SNP interactions. We tested two candidate approaches: the 'Five-Full' and 'AA9int' method. The Five-Full approach is composed of the five full interaction models considering three inheritance modes (additive, dominant and recessive). The AA9int approach is composed of nine interaction models by considering non-hierarchical model structure and the additive mode. Our simulation results show that AA9int has similar statistical power compared to SIPI and is superior to the Five-Full approach, and the impact of the non-hierarchical model structure is greater than that of the inheritance mode in detecting SNP-SNP interactions. In summary, it is recommended that AA9int is a powerful tool to be used either alone or as the screening stage of a two-stage approach (AA9int+SIPI) for detecting SNP-SNP interactions in large-scale studies. The 'AA9int' and 'parAA9int' functions (standard and parallel computing version) are added in the SIPI R package, which is freely available at https://linhuiyi.github.io/LinHY_Software/. hlin1@lsuhsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A statistical parts-based appearance model of inter-subject variability.

PubMed

Toews, Matthew; Collins, D Louis; Arbel, Tal

2006-01-01

In this article, we present a general statistical parts-based model for representing the appearance of an image set, applied to the problem of inter-subject MR brain image matching. In contrast with global image representations such as active appearance models, the parts-based model consists of a collection of localized image parts whose appearance, geometry and occurrence frequency are quantified statistically. The parts-based approach explicitly addresses the case where one-to-one correspondence does not exist between subjects due to anatomical differences, as parts are not expected to occur in all subjects. The model can be learned automatically, discovering structures that appear with statistical regularity in a large set of subject images, and can be robustly fit to new images, all in the presence of significant inter-subject variability. As parts are derived from generic scale-invariant features, the framework can be applied in a wide variety of image contexts, in order to study the commonality of anatomical parts or to group subjects according to the parts they share. Experimentation shows that a parts-based model can be learned from a large set of MR brain images, and used to determine parts that are common within the group of subjects. Preliminary results indicate that the model can be used to automatically identify distinctive features for inter-subject image registration despite large changes in appearance.

An Efficient and Reliable Statistical Method for Estimating Functional Connectivity in Large Scale Brain Networks Using Partial Correlation

PubMed Central

Wang, Yikai; Kang, Jian; Kemmer, Phebe B.; Guo, Ying

2016-01-01

Currently, network-oriented analysis of fMRI data has become an important tool for understanding brain organization and brain networks. Among the range of network modeling methods, partial correlation has shown great promises in accurately detecting true brain network connections. However, the application of partial correlation in investigating brain connectivity, especially in large-scale brain networks, has been limited so far due to the technical challenges in its estimation. In this paper, we propose an efficient and reliable statistical method for estimating partial correlation in large-scale brain network modeling. Our method derives partial correlation based on the precision matrix estimated via Constrained L1-minimization Approach (CLIME), which is a recently developed statistical method that is more efficient and demonstrates better performance than the existing methods. To help select an appropriate tuning parameter for sparsity control in the network estimation, we propose a new Dens-based selection method that provides a more informative and flexible tool to allow the users to select the tuning parameter based on the desired sparsity level. Another appealing feature of the Dens-based method is that it is much faster than the existing methods, which provides an important advantage in neuroimaging applications. Simulation studies show that the Dens-based method demonstrates comparable or better performance with respect to the existing methods in network estimation. We applied the proposed partial correlation method to investigate resting state functional connectivity using rs-fMRI data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) study. Our results show that partial correlation analysis removed considerable between-module marginal connections identified by full correlation analysis, suggesting these connections were likely caused by global effects or common connection to other nodes. Based on partial correlation, we find that the most significant direct connections are between homologous brain locations in the left and right hemisphere. When comparing partial correlation derived under different sparse tuning parameters, an important finding is that the sparse regularization has more shrinkage effects on negative functional connections than on positive connections, which supports previous findings that many of the negative brain connections are due to non-neurophysiological effects. An R package “DensParcorr” can be downloaded from CRAN for implementing the proposed statistical methods. PMID:27242395

An Efficient and Reliable Statistical Method for Estimating Functional Connectivity in Large Scale Brain Networks Using Partial Correlation.

PubMed

Wang, Yikai; Kang, Jian; Kemmer, Phebe B; Guo, Ying

2016-01-01

Currently, network-oriented analysis of fMRI data has become an important tool for understanding brain organization and brain networks. Among the range of network modeling methods, partial correlation has shown great promises in accurately detecting true brain network connections. However, the application of partial correlation in investigating brain connectivity, especially in large-scale brain networks, has been limited so far due to the technical challenges in its estimation. In this paper, we propose an efficient and reliable statistical method for estimating partial correlation in large-scale brain network modeling. Our method derives partial correlation based on the precision matrix estimated via Constrained L1-minimization Approach (CLIME), which is a recently developed statistical method that is more efficient and demonstrates better performance than the existing methods. To help select an appropriate tuning parameter for sparsity control in the network estimation, we propose a new Dens-based selection method that provides a more informative and flexible tool to allow the users to select the tuning parameter based on the desired sparsity level. Another appealing feature of the Dens-based method is that it is much faster than the existing methods, which provides an important advantage in neuroimaging applications. Simulation studies show that the Dens-based method demonstrates comparable or better performance with respect to the existing methods in network estimation. We applied the proposed partial correlation method to investigate resting state functional connectivity using rs-fMRI data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) study. Our results show that partial correlation analysis removed considerable between-module marginal connections identified by full correlation analysis, suggesting these connections were likely caused by global effects or common connection to other nodes. Based on partial correlation, we find that the most significant direct connections are between homologous brain locations in the left and right hemisphere. When comparing partial correlation derived under different sparse tuning parameters, an important finding is that the sparse regularization has more shrinkage effects on negative functional connections than on positive connections, which supports previous findings that many of the negative brain connections are due to non-neurophysiological effects. An R package "DensParcorr" can be downloaded from CRAN for implementing the proposed statistical methods.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessore, Nicolas; Metcalf, R. Benton; Winther, Hans A.

A number of alternatives to general relativity exhibit gravitational screening in the non-linear regime of structure formation. We describe a set of algorithms that can produce weak lensing maps of large scale structure in such theories and can be used to generate mock surveys for cosmological analysis. By analysing a few basic statistics we indicate how these alternatives can be distinguished from general relativity with future weak lensing surveys.

A Comparative Analysis of Pre-Equating and Post-Equating in a Large-Scale Assessment, High Stakes Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojerinde, Dibu; Popoola, Omokunmi; Onyeneho, Patrick; Egberongbe, Aminat

2016-01-01

Statistical procedure used in adjusting test score difficulties on test forms is known as "equating". Equating makes it possible for various test forms to be used interchangeably. In terms of where the equating method fits in the assessment cycle, there are pre-equating and post-equating methods. The major benefits of pre-equating, when…

Impact of satellite data on large-scale circulation statistics as determined from GLAS analyses during FGGE-SOP-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, D. A.; Rosen, R. D.

1982-01-01

A study using the analyses produced from the assimilation cycle of parallel model runs that both include and withhold satellite data was undertaken. The analyzed state of the atmosphere is performed using data from a certain test period during the first Special Observing Period (SOP) of the Global Weather Experiment (FGGE).

The Effect of Decreasing Response Options on Students' Evaluation of Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landrum, R. Eric; Braitman, Keli A.

2008-01-01

This study examined the statistical effect of changing from a 10-point to a 5-point response scale on students' evaluation of instruction. Participants were 5,616 students enrolled in classes offered by the College of Social Sciences and Public Affairs at a large Western university, who completed both the old evaluation (10-point response) and the…

Comparison of Efficiency of Jackknife and Variance Component Estimators of Standard Errors. Program Statistics Research. Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Longford, Nicholas T.

Large scale surveys usually employ a complex sampling design and as a consequence, no standard methods for estimation of the standard errors associated with the estimates of population means are available. Resampling methods, such as jackknife or bootstrap, are often used, with reference to their properties of robustness and reduction of bias. A…

VizieR Online Data Catalog: REFLEX Galaxy Cluster Survey catalogue (Boehringer+, 2004)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehringer, H.; Schuecker, P.; Guzzo, L.; Collins, C. A.; Voges, W.; Cruddace, R. G.; Ortiz-Gil, A.; Chincarini, G.; de Grandi, S.; Edge, A. C.; MacGillivray, H. T.; Neumann, D. M.; Schindler, S.; Shaver, P.

2004-05-01

The following tables provide the catalogue as well as several data files necessary to reproduce the sample preparation. These files are also required for the cosmological modeling of these observations in e.g. the study of the statistics of the large-scale structure of the matter distribution in the Universe and related cosmological tests. (13 data files).

Complex dynamics and empirical evidence (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gaffeo, Edoardo; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Gallegati, Mauro; Kirman, Alan; Palestrini, Antonio; Russo, Alberto

2005-05-01

Standard macroeconomics, based on a reductionist approach centered on the representative agent, is badly equipped to explain the empirical evidence where heterogeneity and industrial dynamics are the rule. In this paper we show that a simple agent-based model of heterogeneous financially fragile agents is able to replicate a large number of scaling type stylized facts with a remarkable degree of statistical precision.

Towards a High Quality High School Workforce: A Longitudinal, Demographic Analysis of U.S. Public School Physics Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rushton, Gregory T.; Rosengrant, David; Dewar, Andrew; Shah, Lisa; Ray, Herman E.; Sheppard, Keith; Watanabe, Lynn

2017-01-01

Efforts to improve the number and quality of the high school physics teaching workforce have taken several forms, including those sponsored by professional organizations. Using a series of large-scale teacher demographic data sets from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), this study sought to investigate trends in teacher quality…

Application of NASA General-Purpose Solver to Large-Scale Computations in Aeroacoustics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Willie R.; Storaasli, Olaf O.

2004-01-01

Of several iterative and direct equation solvers evaluated previously for computations in aeroacoustics, the most promising was the NASA-developed General-Purpose Solver (winner of NASA's 1999 software of the year award). This paper presents detailed, single-processor statistics of the performance of this solver, which has been tailored and optimized for large-scale aeroacoustic computations. The statistics, compiled using an SGI ORIGIN 2000 computer with 12 Gb available memory (RAM) and eight available processors, are the central processing unit time, RAM requirements, and solution error. The equation solver is capable of solving 10 thousand complex unknowns in as little as 0.01 sec using 0.02 Gb RAM, and 8.4 million complex unknowns in slightly less than 3 hours using all 12 Gb. This latter solution is the largest aeroacoustics problem solved to date with this technique. The study was unable to detect any noticeable error in the solution, since noise levels predicted from these solution vectors are in excellent agreement with the noise levels computed from the exact solution. The equation solver provides a means for obtaining numerical solutions to aeroacoustics problems in three dimensions.

Supporting Regularized Logistic Regression Privately and Efficiently.

PubMed

Li, Wenfa; Liu, Hongzhe; Yang, Peng; Xie, Wei

2016-01-01

As one of the most popular statistical and machine learning models, logistic regression with regularization has found wide adoption in biomedicine, social sciences, information technology, and so on. These domains often involve data of human subjects that are contingent upon strict privacy regulations. Concerns over data privacy make it increasingly difficult to coordinate and conduct large-scale collaborative studies, which typically rely on cross-institution data sharing and joint analysis. Our work here focuses on safeguarding regularized logistic regression, a widely-used statistical model while at the same time has not been investigated from a data security and privacy perspective. We consider a common use scenario of multi-institution collaborative studies, such as in the form of research consortia or networks as widely seen in genetics, epidemiology, social sciences, etc. To make our privacy-enhancing solution practical, we demonstrate a non-conventional and computationally efficient method leveraging distributing computing and strong cryptography to provide comprehensive protection over individual-level and summary data. Extensive empirical evaluations on several studies validate the privacy guarantee, efficiency and scalability of our proposal. We also discuss the practical implications of our solution for large-scale studies and applications from various disciplines, including genetic and biomedical studies, smart grid, network analysis, etc.

Can Meditation Influence Quality of Life, Depression, and Disease Outcome in Multiple Sclerosis? Findings from a Large International Web-Based Study

PubMed Central

Levin, Adam B.; Hadgkiss, Emily J.; Weiland, Tracey J.; Marck, Claudia H.; van der Meer, Dania M.; Pereira, Naresh G.; Jelinek, George A.

2014-01-01

Objectives. To explore the association between meditation and health related quality of life (HRQOL), depression, fatigue, disability level, relapse rates, and disease activity in a large international sample of people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods. Participants were invited to take part in an online survey and answer questions relating to HRQOL, depression, fatigue, disability, relapse rates, and their involvement in meditation practices. Results. Statistically and potentially clinically significant differences between those who meditated once a week or more and participants who never meditated were present for mean mental health composite (MHC) scores, cognitive function scale, and health perception scale. The MHC results remained statistically significant on multivariate regression modelling when covariates were accounted for. Physical health composite (PHC) scores were higher in those that meditated; however, the differences were probably not clinically significant. Among those who meditated, fewer screened positive for depression, but there was no relationship with fatigue or relapse rate. Those with worsened disability levels were more likely to meditate. Discussion. The study reveals a significant association between meditation, lower risk of depression, and improved HRQOL in people with MS. PMID:25477709

Validation of a short qualitative food frequency list used in several German large scale surveys.

PubMed

Winkler, G; Döring, A

1998-09-01

Our study aimed to test the validity of a short, qualitative food frequency list (FFL) used in several German large scale surveys. In the surveys of the MONICA project Augsburg, the FFL was used in randomly selected adults. In 1984/85, a dietary survey with 7-day records (DR) was conducted within the subsample of men aged 45 to 64 (response 70%). The 899 DR were used to validate the FFL. Mean weekly food intake frequency and mean daily food intake were compared and Spearman rank order correlation coefficients and classification into tertiles with values of the statistic Kappa were calculated. Spearman correlations range between 0.15 for the item "Other sweets (candies, compote)" and 0.60 for the items "Curds, yoghurt, sour milk", "Milk including butter milk" and "Mineral water"; values for statistic Kappa vary between 0.04 ("White bread, brown bread, crispbread") and 0.41 ("Flaked oats, muesli, cornflakes" and "milk including butter milk"). With the exception of two items, FFL data can be used for analysis on group level. Analysis on individual level should be done with caution. It seems, as if some food groups are generally easier to ask for in FFL than others.

Supporting Regularized Logistic Regression Privately and Efficiently

PubMed Central

Li, Wenfa; Liu, Hongzhe; Yang, Peng; Xie, Wei

2016-01-01

As one of the most popular statistical and machine learning models, logistic regression with regularization has found wide adoption in biomedicine, social sciences, information technology, and so on. These domains often involve data of human subjects that are contingent upon strict privacy regulations. Concerns over data privacy make it increasingly difficult to coordinate and conduct large-scale collaborative studies, which typically rely on cross-institution data sharing and joint analysis. Our work here focuses on safeguarding regularized logistic regression, a widely-used statistical model while at the same time has not been investigated from a data security and privacy perspective. We consider a common use scenario of multi-institution collaborative studies, such as in the form of research consortia or networks as widely seen in genetics, epidemiology, social sciences, etc. To make our privacy-enhancing solution practical, we demonstrate a non-conventional and computationally efficient method leveraging distributing computing and strong cryptography to provide comprehensive protection over individual-level and summary data. Extensive empirical evaluations on several studies validate the privacy guarantee, efficiency and scalability of our proposal. We also discuss the practical implications of our solution for large-scale studies and applications from various disciplines, including genetic and biomedical studies, smart grid, network analysis, etc. PMID:27271738

Characterizing Ocean Turbulence from Argo, Acoustic Doppler, and Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, Katherine

Turbulence is inherently chaotic and unsteady, so observing it and modeling it are no easy tasks. The ocean's sheer size makes it even more difficult to observe, and its unpredictable and ever-changing forcings introduce additional complexities. Turbulence in the oceans ranges from basin scale to the scale of the molecular viscosity. The method of energy transfer between scales is, however, an area of active research, so observations of the ocean at all scales are crucial to understanding the basic dynamics of its motions. In this collection of work, I use a variety of datasets to characterize a wide range of scales of turbulence, including observations from multiple instruments and from models with different governing equations. I analyzed the largest scales of the turbulent range using the global salinity data of the Argo profiling float network. Taking advantage of the scattered and discontinuous nature of this dataset, the second-order structure function was calculated down to 2000m depth, and shown to be useful for predicting spectral slopes. Results showed structure function slopes of 2/3 at small scales, and 0 at large scales, which corresponds with spectral slopes of -5/3 at small scales, and -1 at large scales. Using acoustic Doppler velocity measurements, I characterized the meter- to kilometer-scale turbulence at a potential tidal energy site in the Puget Sound, WA. Acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) observations provided the data for an analysis that includes coherence, anisotropy, and intermittency. In order to more simply describe these features, a parameterization was done with four turbulence metrics, and the anisotropy magnitude, introduced here, was shown to most closely capture the coherent events. Then, using both the NREL TurbSim stochastic turbulence generator and the NCAR large-eddy simulation (LES) model, I calculated turbulence statistics to validate the accuracy of these methods in reproducing the tidal channel. TurbSim models statistics at the height of a turbine hub (5m) well, but do not model coherent events, while the LES does create these events, but not realistically in this configuration, based on comparisons with observations. Each of the datasets have disadvantages when it comes to observing turbulence. The Argo network is sparse in space, and few measurements are taken simultaneously in time. Therefore spatial and temporal averaging is needed, which requires the turbulence to be homogeneous and stationary if it is to be generalized. Though the acoustic Doppler current profiler provides a vertical profile of velocities, the fluctuations are dominated by instrument noise and beam spread, preventing it from being used for most turbulence metrics. ADV measurements have much less noise, and no beam spread, but the observations are made at one point in space, limiting us to temporal statistics or an assumption of "frozen turbulence" to infer spatial scales. As for the models, TurbSim does not have any real-world forcing, and uses parameterized spectra, and coherence functions and randomizes phase information, while LES models must make assumptions about sub-grid scales, which may be inaccurate. Additionally, all models are set up with idealizations of the forcing and domain, which may make the results unlike observations in a particular location and time. Despite these difficulties in observing and characterizing turbulence, I present several quantities that use the imperfect, yet still valuable observations, to attain a better description of the turbulence in the oceans.

A space-time multifractal analysis on radar rainfall sequences from central Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licznar, Paweł; Deidda, Roberto

2014-05-01

Rainfall downscaling belongs to most important tasks of modern hydrology. Especially from the perspective of urban hydrology there is real need for development of practical tools for possible rainfall scenarios generation. Rainfall scenarios of fine temporal scale reaching single minutes are indispensable as inputs for hydrological models. Assumption of probabilistic philosophy of drainage systems design and functioning leads to widespread application of hydrodynamic models in engineering practice. However models like these covering large areas could not be supplied with only uncorrelated point-rainfall time series. They should be rather supplied with space time rainfall scenarios displaying statistical properties of local natural rainfall fields. Implementation of a Space-Time Rainfall (STRAIN) model for hydrometeorological applications in Polish conditions, such as rainfall downscaling from the large scales of meteorological models to the scale of interest for rainfall-runoff processes is the long-distance aim of our research. As an introduction part of our study we verify the veracity of the following STRAIN model assumptions: rainfall fields are isotropic and statistically homogeneous in space; self-similarity holds (so that, after having rescaled the time by the advection velocity, rainfall is a fully homogeneous and isotropic process in the space-time domain); statistical properties of rainfall are characterized by an "a priori" known multifractal behavior. We conduct a space-time multifractal analysis on radar rainfall sequences selected from the Polish national radar system POLRAD. Radar rainfall sequences covering the area of 256 km x 256 km of original 2 km x 2 km spatial resolution and 15 minutes temporal resolution are used as study material. Attention is mainly focused on most severe summer convective rainfalls. It is shown that space-time rainfall can be considered with a good approximation to be a self-similar multifractal process. Multifractal analysis is carried out assuming Taylor's hypothesis to hold and the advection velocity needed to rescale the time dimension is assumed to be equal about 16 km/h. This assumption is verified by the analysis of autocorrelation functions along the x and y directions of "rainfall cubes" and along the time axis rescaled with assumed advection velocity. In general for analyzed rainfall sequences scaling is observed for spatial scales ranging from 4 to 256 km and for timescales from 15 min to 16 hours. However in most cases scaling break is identified for spatial scales between 4 and 8, corresponding to spatial dimensions of 16 km to 32 km. It is assumed that the scaling break occurrence at these particular scales in central Poland conditions could be at least partly explained by the rainfall mesoscale gap (on the edge of meso-gamma, storm-scale and meso-beta scale).