Climate forcings and feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James

1993-01-01

Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption or an El Nino.

Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.

Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the intensity of this event may be greatly increased if it occurs in a future climate. In the second part of this thesis, I examine the ability of high-resolution global atmospheric models to simulate TCs. Specifically, I present an intercomparison of several models' ability to simulate the global characteristics of TCs in the current climate. This is a necessary first step before using these models to project future changes in TCs. Overall, the models were able to reproduce the geographic distribution of TCs reasonably well, with some of the models performing remarkably well. The intensity of TCs varied widely between the models, with some of this difference being due to model resolution.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

United States Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Phenomenology, Large-Scale Organization, Physical Mechanisms and Model Representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, R. X.

2017-12-01

We summarize results from a project focusing on regional temperature and precipitation extremes over the continental United States. Our project introduces a new framework for evaluating these extremes emphasizing their (a) large-scale organization, (b) underlying physical sources (including remote-excitation and scale-interaction) and (c) representation in climate models. Results to be reported include the synoptic-dynamic behavior, seasonality and secular variability of cold waves, dry spells and heavy rainfall events in the observational record. We also study how the characteristics of such extremes are systematically related to Northern Hemisphere planetary wave structures and thus planetary- and hemispheric-scale forcing (e.g., those associated with major El Nino events and Arctic sea ice change). The underlying physics of event onset are diagnostically quantified for different categories of events. Finally, the representation of these extremes in historical coupled climate model simulations is studied and the origins of model biases are traced using new metrics designed to assess the large-scale atmospheric forcing of local extremes.

Regionally heterogeneous paleoenvironmental responses in the West African and South American monsoon systems on glacial to millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.

2008-12-01

Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.

GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. I - Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, James B.; Rind, David; Lacis, Andrew; Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

1993-01-01

The response of the climate system to a temporally and spatially constant amount of volcanic particles is simulated using a general circulation model (GCM). The optical depth of the aerosols is chosen so as to produce approximately the same amount of forcing as results from doubling the present CO2 content of the atmosphere and from the boundary conditions associated with the peak of the last ice age. The climate changes produced by long-term volcanic aerosol forcing are obtained by differencing this simulation and one made for the present climate with no volcanic aerosol forcing. The simulations indicate that a significant cooling of the troposphere and surface can occur at times of closely spaced multiple sulfur-rich volcanic explosions that span time scales of decades to centuries. The steady-state climate response to volcanic forcing includes a large expansion of sea ice, especially in the Southern Hemisphere; a resultant large increase in surface and planetary albedo at high latitudes; and sizable changes in the annually and zonally averaged air temperature.

The susceptibility of large river basins to orogenic and climatic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haedke, Hanna; Wittmann, Hella; von Blanckenburg, Friedhelm

2017-04-01

Large rivers are known to buffer pulses in sediment production driven by changes in climate as sediment is transported through lowlands. Our new dataset of in situ cosmogenic nuclide concentration and chemical composition of 62 sandy bedload samples from the world largest rivers integrates over 25% of Earth's terrestrial surface, distributed over a variety of climatic zones across all continents, and represents the millennial-scale denudation rate of the sediment's source area. We can show that these denudation rates do not respond to climatic forcing, but faithfully record orogenic forcing, when analyzed with respective variables representing orogeny (strain rate, relief, bouguer anomaly, free-air anomaly), and climate (runoff, temperature, precipitation) and basin properties (floodplain response time, drainage area). In contrast to this orogenic forcing of denudation rates, elemental bedload chemistry from the fine-grained portion of the same samples correlates with climate-related variables (precipitation, runoff) and floodplain response times. It is also well-known from previous compilations of river-gauged sediment loads that the short-term basin-integrated sediment export is also climatically controlled. The chemical composition of detrital sediment shows a climate control that can originate in the rivers source area, but this signal is likely overprinted during transfer through the lowlands because we also find correlation with floodplain response times. At the same time, cosmogenic nuclides robustly preserve the orogenic forcing of the source area denudation signal through of the floodplain buffer. Conversely, previous global compilations of cosmogenic nuclides in small river basins show the preservation of climate drivers in their analysis, but these are buffered in large lowland rivers. Hence, we can confirm the assumption that cosmogenic nuclides in large rivers are poorly susceptible to climate changes, but are at the same time highly suited to detect changes in orogenic forcing in their paleo sedimentary records.

Impact of spectral nudging on the downscaling of tropical cyclones in regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Suk-Jin; Lee, Dong-Kyou

2016-06-01

This study investigated the simulations of three months of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific using the Advanced Research WRF Model. In the control experiment (CTL), the TC frequency was considerably overestimated. Additionally, the tracks of some TCs tended to have larger radii of curvature and were shifted eastward. The large-scale environments of westerly monsoon flows and subtropical Pacific highs were unreasonably simulated. The overestimated frequency of TC formation was attributed to a strengthened westerly wind field in the southern quadrants of the TC center. In comparison with the experiment with the spectral nudging method, the strengthened wind speed was mainly modulated by large-scale flow that was greater than approximately 1000 km in the model domain. The spurious formation and undesirable tracks of TCs in the CTL were considerably improved by reproducing realistic large-scale atmospheric monsoon circulation with substantial adjustment between large-scale flow in the model domain and large-scale boundary forcing modified by the spectral nudging method. The realistic monsoon circulation took a vital role in simulating realistic TCs. It revealed that, in the downscaling from large-scale fields for regional climate simulations, scale interaction between model-generated regional features and forced large-scale fields should be considered, and spectral nudging is a desirable method in the downscaling method.

New Perspectives on the Role of Internal Variability in Regional Climate Change and Climate Model Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Natural climate variability occurs over a wide range of time and space scales as a result of processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, the ocean, and their coupled interactions. Such internally generated climate fluctuations pose significant challenges for the identification of externally forced climate signals such as those driven by volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. This challenge is exacerbated for regional climate responses evaluated from short (< 50 years) data records. The limited duration of the observations also places strong constraints on how well the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural climate variability are known, especially on multi-decadal time scales. The observational constraints, in turn, pose challenges for evaluation of climate models, including their representation of internal variability and assessing the accuracy of their responses to natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings. A promising new approach to climate model assessment is the advent of large (10-100 member) "initial-condition" ensembles of climate change simulations with individual models. Such ensembles allow for accurate determination, and straightforward separation, of externally forced climate signals and internal climate variability on regional scales. The range of climate trajectories in a given model ensemble results from the fact that each simulation represents a particular sequence of internal variability superimposed upon a common forced response. This makes clear that nature's single realization is only one of many that could have unfolded. This perspective leads to a rethinking of approaches to climate model evaluation that incorporate observational uncertainty due to limited sampling of internal variability. Illustrative examples across a range of well-known climate phenomena including ENSO, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic climate change will be discussed.

Do GCM's Predict the Climate.... Or the Low Frequency Weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; Varon, D.; Schertzer, D. J.

2011-12-01

Over twenty-five years ago, a three-regime scaling model was proposed describing the statistical variability of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from weather scales out to ≈ 100 kyrs. Using modern in situ data reanalyses, monthly surface series (at 5ox5o), 8 "multiproxy" (yearly) series of the Northern hemisphere from 1500- 1980, and GRIP and Vostok paleotemperatures at 5.2 and ≈ 100 year resolutions (over the past 91-420 kyrs), we refine the model and show how it can be understood with the help of new developments in nonlinear dynamics, especially multifractals and cascades. In a scaling range, mean fluctuations in state variables such as temperature ΔT ≈ ΔtH the where Δt is the duration. At small (weather) scales the fluctuation exponents are generally H>0; they grow with scale. At longer scales Δt >τw (≈ 10 days) they change sign, the fluctuations decrease with scale; this is the low variability, "low frequency weather" regime the spectrum is a relatively flat "plateau", it's variability is that of the usual idea of "long term weather statistics". Finally for longer times, Δt>τc ≈ 10 - 100 years, again H>0, the variability again increases with scale. This is the true climate regime. These scaling regimes allow us to objectively define the weather as fluctuations over periods <τw, "climate states", as fluctuations at scale τc and "climate change" as the fluctuations at longer periods >τc). We show that the intermediate regime is the result of the weather regime undergoing a "dimensional transition": at temporal scales longer than the typical lifetime of planetary structures (τw), the spatial degrees of freedom are rapidly quenched, only the temporal degrees of freedom are important. This low frequency weather regime has statistical properties well reproduced not only by weather cascade models, but also by control runs (i.e. without climate forcing) of GCM's (including IPSL and ECHAM GCM's). In order for GCM's to go beyond simply predicting this low frequency weather so as to predict the climate, they need appropriate climate forcings and/ or new internal mechanisms of variability. We examine this using wavelet analyses of forced and unforced GCM outputs, including the ECHO-G simulation used in the Millenium project. For example, we find that climate scenarios with large CO2 increases do give rise to a climate regime but that Hc>1 i.e. much larger than that of natural variability which for temperatures has Hc≈0.4. In comparison, the (largely volcanic) forcing of the ECHO-G Millenium simulation is fairly realistic (Hc≈0.4), although it is not clear that this mechanism can explain the even lower frequency variability found in the paleotemperature series, nor is it clear that this is compatible with low frequency solar or orbital forcings.

Large-eddy simulation of subtropical cloud-topped boundary layers: 1. A forcing framework with closed surface energy balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zhihong; Schneider, Tapio; Teixeira, João.; Pressel, Kyle G.

2016-12-01

Large-eddy simulation (LES) of clouds has the potential to resolve a central question in climate dynamics, namely, how subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds respond to global warming. However, large-scale processes need to be prescribed or represented parameterically in the limited-area LES domains. It is important that the representation of large-scale processes satisfies constraints such as a closed energy balance in a manner that is realizable under climate change. For example, LES with fixed sea surface temperatures usually do not close the surface energy balance, potentially leading to spurious surface fluxes and cloud responses to climate change. Here a framework of forcing LES of subtropical MBL clouds is presented that enforces a closed surface energy balance by coupling atmospheric LES to an ocean mixed layer with a sea surface temperature (SST) that depends on radiative fluxes and sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface. A variety of subtropical MBL cloud regimes (stratocumulus, cumulus, and stratocumulus over cumulus) are simulated successfully within this framework. However, unlike in conventional frameworks with fixed SST, feedbacks between cloud cover and SST arise, which can lead to sudden transitions between cloud regimes (e.g., stratocumulus to cumulus) as forcing parameters are varied. The simulations validate this framework for studies of MBL clouds and establish its usefulness for studies of how the clouds respond to climate change.

Climatic Impacts of a Volcanic Double Event: 536/540 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toohey, M.; Krüger, K.; Sigl, M.; Stordal, F.; Svensen, H.

2015-12-01

Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to the coldest decade of the Common Era, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the world. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from a sequence of two major volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. Comparing with a reconstruction of volcanic forcing over the past 1200 years, we estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic "double event" was larger than that of any known period. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing are used to explore the temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the eruptions, and compared to available proxy records, including maximum latewood density (MXD) temperature reconstructions. Special attention is placed on the decadal persistence of the cooling signal in tree rings, and whether the climate model simulations reproduce such long-term climate anomalies. Finally, the climate model results will be used to explore the probability of socioeconomic crisis resulting directly from the volcanic radiative forcing in different regions of the world.

Observation-based Estimate of Climate Sensitivity with a Scaling Climate Response Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

To properly adress the anthropogenic impacts upon the earth system, an estimate of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is essential. Observation-based estimates of climate sensitivity are often limited by their ability to take into account the slower response of the climate system imparted mainly by the large thermal inertia of oceans, they are nevertheless essential to provide an alternative to estimates from global circulation models and increase our confidence in estimates of climate sensitivity by the multiplicity of approaches. It is straightforward to calculate the Effective Climate Sensitivity(EffCS) as the ratio of temperature change to the change in radiative forcing; the result is almost identical to the Transient Climate Response(TCR), but it underestimates the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(ECS). A study of global mean temperature is thus presented assuming a Scaling Climate Response Function to deterministic radiative forcing. This general form is justified as there exists a scaling symmetry respected by the dynamics, and boundary conditions, over a wide range of scales and it allows for long-range dependencies while retaining only 3 parameter which are estimated empirically. The range of memory is modulated by the scaling exponent H. We can calculate, analytically, a one-to-one relation between the scaling exponent H and the ratio of EffCS to TCR and EffCS to ECS. The scaling exponent of the power law is estimated by a regression of temperature as a function of forcing. We consider for the analysis 4 different datasets of historical global mean temperature and 100 scenario runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 distributed among the 4 Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios. We find that the error function for the estimate on historical temperature is very wide and thus, many scaling exponent can be used without meaningful changes in the fit residuals of historical temperatures; their response in the year 2100 on the other hand, is very broad, especially for a low-emission scenario such as RCP 2.6. CMIP5 scenario runs thus allow for a narrower estimate of H which can then be used to estimate the ECS and TCR from the EffCS estimated from the historical data.

Progressive Mid-latitude Afforestation: Local and Remote Climate Impacts in the Framework of Two Coupled Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, Marysa

Vegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and non-linear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, we systematically evaluate the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover over the northern mid-latitudes. We show that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern mid-latitudes determines the climate response in a non-linear fashion, and identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks - a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large increases in tree cover, causing the troposphere to warm and dry, subsequently reducing cloud cover. Increased absorption of solar radiation at the surface is driven by both surface albedo changes and cloud feedbacks. We identify how vegetation-induced changes in cloud cover further feedback on changes in the global energy balance. We also show how atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport changes as the area of afforestation is incrementally increased (a relationship which has not previously been demonstrated). This work demonstrates that while some climate effects (such as energy transport) of large scale mid-latitude afforestation scale roughly linearly across a wide range of afforestation areas, others (such as the local partitioning of the surface energy budget) are non-linear, and sensitive to the particular magnitude of mid-latitude forcing. Our results highlight the importance of considering both local and remote climate responses to large-scale vegetation change, and explore the scaling relationship between changes in vegetation cover and the resulting climate impacts.

Evaluation of the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, D. T.

2012-01-01

The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28degS, 28degS-28degN, 28-60degN and 60-90degN) as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within +/-20%of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90-28degS and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the +/-20% range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39-45% and 9-39% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model.

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragone, Francesco; Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank

2016-03-01

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time-scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time-scales. Conceptually, these results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, these results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. This technique allows also for studying systematically, for a large variety of forcing scenarios, the time horizon at which the climate change signal (in an ensemble sense) becomes statistically significant. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. These results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.

The Amazon and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nobre, C. A.

1984-01-01

The climatologies of cloudiness and precipitation for the Amazon, are reviewed and the physical causes of some of the observed features and those which are not well known are explained. The atmospheric circulation over the Amazon is discussed on the large scale tropical circulations forced by deep diabatic heating sources. Weather deforestation which leads to a reduction in evapotranspiration into the atmosphere, and a reduction in precipitation and its implicated for the gobal climate is discussed. It is indicated that a large scale clearing of tropical rainforests there would be a reduction in rainfall which would have global effects on climate and weather both in the tropical and extratropical regions.

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

PubMed

Seinfeld, John H; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J; Dunlea, Edward J; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M; Molina, Mario J; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E; Prather, Kimberly A; Ramanathan, V; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J; Ravishankara, A R; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

2016-05-24

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

Improving Our Fundamental Understanding of the Role of Aerosol Cloud Interactions in the Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kahn, Ralph;

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system

DOE PAGES

Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; ...

2016-05-24

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions but significant challengesmore » exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. Lastly, we suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.« less

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system

PubMed Central

Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kraucunas, Ian; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

2016-01-01

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty. PMID:27222566

Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth.

PubMed

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2016-05-25

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response.

Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth

PubMed Central

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2016-01-01

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response. PMID:27221757

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

2016-01-05

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemblemore » forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.« less

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemblemore » forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.« less

Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity.

PubMed

Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Martinez, Pamela P; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-10-01

Urbanization and climate change are the two major environmental challenges of the 21st century. The dramatic expansion of cities around the world creates new conditions for the spread, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. In particular, urban growth generates pronounced spatial heterogeneity within cities, which can modulate the effect of climate factors at local spatial scales in large urban environments. Importantly, the interaction between environmental forcing and socioeconomic heterogeneity at local scales remains an open area in infectious disease dynamics, especially for urban landscapes of the developing world. A quantitative and conceptual framework on urban health with a focus on infectious diseases would benefit from integrating aspects of climate forcing, population density, and level of wealth. In this paper, we review what is known about these drivers acting independently and jointly on urban infectious diseases; we then outline elements that are missing and would contribute to building such a framework. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Assessing Hydrological and Energy Budgets in Amazonia through Regional Downscaling, and Comparisons with Global Reanalysis Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, A.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2014-12-01

Although current global reanalyses provide reasonably accurate large-scale features of the atmosphere, systematic errors are still found in the hydrological and energy budgets of such products. In the tropics, precipitation is particularly challenging to model, which is also adversely affected by the scarcity of hydrometeorological datasets in the region. With the goal of producing downscaled analyses that are appropriate for a climate assessment at regional scales, a regional spectral model has used a combination of precipitation assimilation with scale-selective bias correction. The latter is similar to the spectral nudging technique, which prevents the departure of the regional model's internal states from the large-scale forcing. The target area in this study is the Amazon region, where large errors are detected in reanalysis precipitation. To generate the downscaled analysis, the regional climate model used NCEP/DOE R2 global reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, and assimilated NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHed precipitation (CMORPH), available at 0.25-degree resolution, every 3 hours. The regional model's precipitation was successfully brought closer to the observations, in comparison to the NCEP global reanalysis products, as a result of the impact of a precipitation assimilation scheme on cumulus-convection parameterization, and improved boundary forcing achieved through a new version of scale-selective bias correction. Water and energy budget terms were also evaluated against global reanalyses and other datasets.

Assessing millennial-scale variability during the Holocene: A perspective from the western tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khider, D.; Jackson, C. S.; Stott, L. D.

2014-03-01

We investigate the relationship between tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean variability during the Holocene using the stable oxygen isotope and magnesium/calcium records of cooccurring planktonic and benthic foraminifera from a marine sediment core collected in the western equatorial Pacific. The planktonic record exhibits millennial-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations over the Holocene of 0.5°C while the benthic δ18Oc document 0.10‰ millennial-scale changes of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), a water mass which outcrops in the Southern Ocean. Solar forcing as an explanation for millennial-scale SST variability requires (1) a large climate sensitivity and (2) a long 400 year delayed response, suggesting that if solar forcing is the cause of the variability, it would need to be considerably amplified by processes within the climate system at least at the core location. We also explore the possibility that SST variability arose from volcanic forcing using a simple red noise model. Our best estimates of volcanic forcing falls short of reproducing the amplitude of observed SST variations although it produces power at low-frequency similar to that observed in the MD81 record. Although we cannot totally discount the volcanic and solar forcing hypotheses, we are left to consider that the most plausible source for Holocene millennial-scale variability lies within the climate system itself. In particular, UCDW variability coincided with deep North Atlantic changes, indicating a role for the deep ocean in Holocene millennial-scale variability.

A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

PubMed

Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

2017-07-11

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

Creation of Synthetic Surface Temperature and Precipitation Ensembles Through A Computationally Efficient, Mixed Method Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartin, C.; Lynch, C.; Kravitz, B.; Link, R. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.

2017-12-01

Typically, uncertainty quantification of internal variability relies on large ensembles of climate model runs under multiple forcing scenarios or perturbations in a parameter space. Computationally efficient, standard pattern scaling techniques only generate one realization and do not capture the complicated dynamics of the climate system (i.e., stochastic variations with a frequency-domain structure). In this study, we generate large ensembles of climate data with spatially and temporally coherent variability across a subselection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. First, for each CMIP5 model we apply a pattern emulation approach to derive the model response to external forcing. We take all the spatial and temporal variability that isn't explained by the emulator and decompose it into non-physically based structures through use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Then, we perform a Fourier decomposition of the EOF projection coefficients to capture the input fields' temporal autocorrelation so that our new emulated patterns reproduce the proper timescales of climate response and "memory" in the climate system. Through this 3-step process, we derive computationally efficient climate projections consistent with CMIP5 model trends and modes of variability, which address a number of deficiencies inherent in the ability of pattern scaling to reproduce complex climate model behavior.

Regional Climate Sensitivity- and Historical-Based Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphaël.; Lovejoy, Shaun

2018-05-01

Reliable climate projections at the regional scale are needed in order to evaluate climate change impacts and inform policy. We develop an alternative method for projections based on the transient climate sensitivity (TCS), which relies on a linear relationship between the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing. The TCS is evaluated at the regional scale (5° by 5°), and projections are made accordingly to 2100 using the high and low Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios. We find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high. Given that the GCM Representative Concentration Pathway scenario runs are mostly linear with respect to their (inadequate) TCS, we conclude that historical methods of regional projection are better suited given that they are directly calibrated on the real world (historical) climate.

Planetary boundary layer as an essential component of the earth's climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2015-04-01

Following the traditional engineering approach proposed by Prandtl, the turbulent planetary boundary layers (PBLs) are considered in the climate science as complex, non-linear, essential but nevertheless subordinated components of the earth's climate system. Correspondingly, the temperature variations, dT - a popular and practically important measure of the climate variability, are seen as the system's response to the external heat forcing, Q, e.g. in the energy balance model of the type dT=Q/C (1). The moderation of this response by non-linear feedbacks embedded in the effective heat capacity, C, are to a large degree overlooked. The effective heat capacity is globally determined by the depth of the ocean mixed layer (on multi-decadal and longer time scales) but regionally, over the continents, C is much smaller and determined (on decadal time scales) by the depth, h, of the PBL. The present understanding of the climatological features of turbulent boundary layers is set by the works of Frankignoul & Hasselmann (1976) and Manabe & Stauffer (1980). The former explained how large-scale climate anomalies could be generated in the case of a large C (in the sea surface temperature) by the delta-correlated stochastic forcing (white noise). The latter demonstrated that the climate response to a given forcing is moderated by the depth, h, so that in the shallow PBL the signal should be significantly amplified. At present there are more than 3000 publications (ISI Web of Knowledge) which detail this understanding but the physical mechanisms, which control the boundary layer depth, and statistical relationships between the turbulent and climatological measures remain either unexplored or incorrectly attributed. In order to identify the climatic role of the PBL, the relationships between the PBL depth, h, - as the integral measure of the turbulent processes and micro-circulations due to the surface heterogeneity - and the climatic variability (variations and trends) of temperature have to be established. These relationships are necessary to complete the model (1) where the relationships between temperature variability, dT, and heat forcing, Q, are intensively studied. We demonstrate that the statistical dependences between dT and h becomes the primary factor in controlling the climate features of the earth's climate system when h is shallow (less than about 500 m). Such conditions are found in the cold (with negative surface heat balance on average) and dry (with large-scale air subsidence) climates. To get those climates and their variations correct, the climate models must be able to reproduce the shallow stably-stratified PBL. We show that the present-day CMIP-5 models are systematically and strongly biased towards producing deeper PBLs (between 20-50% deeper than observed) in this part of the parameter space which leads to large errors (around 15 K) and a damped variability of the surface temperatures under these conditions. More generally, this bias indicates that the models represent the earth's cooling processes incorrectly, which may be a part of the puzzle of the observed "hiatus" (or pause) in global warming. Frankignoul, C. & K. Hasselmann, 1977: Stochastic climate models. Part 2, Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability, Tellus, 29, 289-305. Manabe, S. & R. Stouffer, 1980: Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research, 85(C10): 5529-5554.

Global Climate Change: Valuable Insights from Concordant and Discordant Ice Core Histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosley-Thompson, E.; Thompson, L. G.; Porter, S. E.; Goodwin, B. P.; Wilson, A. B.

2014-12-01

Earth's ice cover is responding to the ongoing large-scale warming driven in part by anthropogenic forces. The highest tropical and subtropical ice fields are dramatically shrinking and/or thinning and unique climate histories archived therein are now threatened, compromised or lost. Many ice fields in higher latitudes are also experiencing and recording climate system changes although these are often manifested in less evident and spectacular ways. The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has experienced a rapid, widespread and dramatic warming over the last 60 years. Carefully selected ice fields in the AP allow reconstruction of long histories of key climatic variables. As more proxy climate records are recovered it is clear they reflect a combination of expected and unexpected responses to seemingly similar climate forcings. Recently acquired temperature and precipitation histories from the Bruce Plateau are examined within the context provided by other cores recently collected in the AP. Understanding the differences and similarities among these records provides a better understanding of the forces driving climate variability in the AP over the last century. The Arctic is also rapidly warming. The δ18O records from the Bona-Churchill and Mount Logan ice cores from southeast Alaska and southwest Yukon Territory, respectively, do not record this strong warming. The Aleutian Low strongly influences moisture transport to this geographically complex region, yet its interannual variability is preserved differently in these cores located just 110 km apart. Mount Logan is very sensitive to multi-decadal to multi-centennial climate shifts in the tropical Pacific while low frequency variability on Bona-Churchill is more strongly connected to Western Arctic sea ice extent. There is a natural tendency to focus more strongly on commonalities among records, particularly on regional scales. However, it is also important to investigate seemingly poorly correlated records, particularly those from geographically complex settings that appear to be dominated by similar large-scale climatological processes. Better understanding of the spatially and temporally diverse responses in such regions will expand our understanding of the mechanisms forcing climate variability in meteorologically complex environments.

Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

2015-01-01

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

Regional Climate Simulations over North America: Interaction of Local Processes with Improved Large-Scale Flow.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan

2005-04-01

The reasons for biases in regional climate simulations were investigated in an attempt to discern whether they arise from deficiencies in the model parameterizations or are due to dynamical problems. Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, the detailed climate over North America at 50-km resolution for June 2000 was simulated. First, the RAMS equations were modified to make them applicable to a large region, and its turbulence parameterization was corrected. The initial simulations showed large biases in the location of precipitation patterns and surface air temperatures. By implementing higher-resolution soil data, soil moisture and soil temperature initialization, and corrections to the Kain-Fritch convective scheme, the temperature biases and precipitation amount errors could be removed, but the precipitation location errors remained. The precipitation location biases could only be improved by implementing spectral nudging of the large-scale (wavelength of 2500 km) dynamics in RAMS. This corrected for circulation errors produced by interactions and reflection of the internal domain dynamics with the lateral boundaries where the model was forced by the reanalysis.

Impact of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the 1st millennium AD in a comprehensive climate simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo

2015-04-01

The climate of the 1st millennium AD shows some remarkable differences compared to the last millennium concerning variation in external forcings. Together with an orbitally induced increased solar insolation during the northern hemisphere summer season and a general lack of strong solar minima, the frequency and intensity of large tropical and extratropical eruptions is decreased. Here we present results of a new climate simulation carried out with the comprehensive Earth System Model MPI-ESM-P forced with variations in orbital, solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas variations and land use changes for the last 2,100 years. The atmospheric model has a horizontal resolution of T63 (approx. 125x125 km) and therefore also allows investigations of regional-to-continental scale climatic phenomena. The volcanic forcing was reconstructed based on a publication by Sigl et al. (2013) using the sulfate records of the NEEM and WAIS ice cores. To obtain information on the aerosol optical depth (AOD) these sulfate records were scaled to an established reconstruction from Crowley and Unterman (2010), which is also a standard forcing in the framework of CMIP5/PMIP3. A comparison between the newly created data set with the Crowley and Unterman dataset reveals that the new reconstruction shows in general weaker intensities, especially of the large tropical outbreaks and fewer northern hemispheric small-to-medium scale eruptions. However, the general pattern in the overlapping period is similar. A hypothesis that can be tested with the simulation is whether the reduced volcanic intensity of the 1st millennium AD contributed to the elevated temperature levels over Europe, evident within a new proxy-based reconstruction. On the other hand, the few but large volcanic eruptions, e.g. the 528 AD event, also induced negative decadal-scale temperature anomalies. Another interesting result of the simulation relates to the 79 AD eruption of the Vesuvius, which caused the collapse of the city of Pompeii and its surroundings. Despite its severe local effects the eruption does not show a clear-cut hemispheric or global cooling. Therefore the simulation allows investigations on the effect of individual and clustered eruptions on the climate in the 1st millennium AD and its potential influence to human induced migration periods and decay of cultures in different regions.

Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

PubMed

Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

2013-12-01

The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving the representation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation using spectral nudging in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

EPA Science Inventory

Spectral nudging – a scale-selective interior constraint technique – is commonly used in regional climate models to maintain consistency with large-scale forcing while permitting mesoscale features to develop in the downscaled simulations. Several studies have demonst...

Influence of Wave Energetics on Nearshore Storms and Adjacent Shoreline Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadman, H. M.; McNinch, J. E.; Hanson, J.

2008-12-01

Large-scale climatic forcings (such as NAO and ENSO) are known to induce fluctuations in regional storm frequency and intensity. Morphology-based studies have traditionally focused on individual storms and their influence on the nearshore coastal wave regime and shoreline response. Few studies have attempted to link long-term observed changes in shoreline position, beach, and nearshore morphology with large-scale climatic forcings that influence regional storm patterns. In order to predict the response of coastlines to future sea level rise and climate change, we need to understand how changes in the frequency of storms affecting nearshore regions (nearshore storms) may influence trends in shoreline position and nearshore morphology. Nearly 30 years of wave data (deep and shallow) collected off of Duck, NC are examined for trends in storm frequency and/or intensity. Changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevation, as observed from monthly beach transects over the same period, are also investigated in light of the observed trends in hydrodynamic forcings. Our preliminary analysis was unable to identify any consistent linear trends (increases or decreases) in frequency or intensity over the ~30-year time period in either the offshore wave heights or the nearshore storm record. These data might suggest that previous observations of recent increases in storm intensity and frequency, speculated to be due to climate change, might be spatially limited. Future analyses will partition the contributions from individual wind sea and swell events in order to better identify long-term trends in wave energetics from the various wave generation regions in the Atlantic. At this location, offshore wave height and the nearshore storm record are dominated by seasonal fluctuations and a strong interdecadal- to decadal periodicity. Previous research in Duck, NC has suggested that changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevations are related both to seasonal trends as well as "storm groupiness". Our analyses support these findings, but also identify interdecadal- to decadal trends in the nearshore morphology. Despite these fluctuations, the overall position of the shoreline and elevation of the shoreface shows little net change over the 30 years investigated. We hypothesize that the interdecadal- to decadal periodicity in the morphology is driven largely by the influences of large-scale climatic forcings on the nearshore wave regime as reflected in the storm record. We also explore the relationship between morphological periodicity, storm and wave height periodicity, and climatic fluctuations.

Trees tell of past climates: but are they speaking less clearly today?

PubMed Central

Briffa, K. R.

1998-01-01

The annual growth of trees, as represented by a variety of ring-width, densitometric, or chemical parameters, represents a combined record of different environmental forcings, one of which is climate. Along with climate, relatively large-scale positive growth influences such as hypothesized 'fertilization' due to increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide or various nitrogenous compounds, or possibly deleterious effects of 'acid rain' or increased ultra-violet radiation, might all be expected to exert some influence on recent tree growth rates. Inferring the details of past climate variability from tree-ring data remains a largely empirical exercise, but one that goes hand-in-hand with the development of techniques that seek to identify and isolate the confounding influence of local and larger-scale non-climatic factors. By judicious sampling, and the use of rigorous statistical procedures, dendroclimatology has provided unique insight into the nature of past climate variability, but most significantly at interannual, decadal, and centennial timescales. Here, examples are shown that illustrate the reconstruction of annually resolved patterns of past summer temperature around the Northern Hemisphere, as well as some more localized reconstructions, but ones which span 1000 years or more. These data provide the means of exploring the possible role of different climate forcings; for example, they provide evidence of the large-scale effects of explosive volcanic eruptions on regional and hemispheric temperatures during the last 400 years. However, a dramatic change in the sensitivity of hemispheric tree-growth to temperature forcing has become apparent during recent decades, and there is additional evidence of major tree-growth (and hence, probably, ecosystem biomass) increases in the northern boreal forests, most clearly over the last century. These possibly anthropogenically related changes in the ecology of tree growth have important implications for modelling future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Also, where dendroclimatology is concerned to reconstruct longer (increasingly above centennial) temperature histories, such alterations of 'normal' (pre-industrial) tree-growth rates and climate-growth relationships must be accounted for in our attempts to translate the evidence of past tree growth changes.

Can We Use Single-Column Models for Understanding the Boundary Layer Cloud-Climate Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Gesso, S.; Neggers, R. A. J.

2018-02-01

This study explores how to drive Single-Column Models (SCMs) with existing data sets of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, with the aim of studying the boundary layer cloud response to climate change in the marine subtropical trade wind regime. The EC-EARTH SCM is driven with the large-scale tendencies and boundary conditions as derived from two different data sets, consisting of high-frequency outputs of GCM simulations. SCM simulations are performed near Barbados Cloud Observatory in the dry season (January-April), when fair-weather cumulus is the dominant low-cloud regime. This climate regime is characterized by a near equilibrium in the free troposphere between the long-wave radiative cooling and the large-scale advection of warm air. In the SCM, this equilibrium is ensured by scaling the monthly mean dynamical tendency of temperature and humidity such that it balances that of the model physics in the free troposphere. In this setup, the high-frequency variability in the forcing is maintained, and the boundary layer physics acts freely. This technique yields representative cloud amount and structure in the SCM for the current climate. Furthermore, the cloud response to a sea surface warming of 4 K as produced by the SCM is consistent with that of the forcing GCM.

Synchronous interhemispheric Holocene climate trends in the tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Polissar, Pratigya J.; Abbott, Mark B.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Vuille, Mathias; Bezada, Maximiliano

2013-01-01

Holocene variations of tropical moisture balance have been ascribed to orbitally forced changes in solar insolation. If this model is correct, millennial-scale climate evolution should be antiphased between the northern and southern hemispheres, producing humid intervals in one hemisphere matched to aridity in the other. Here we show that Holocene climate trends were largely synchronous and in the same direction in the northern and southern hemisphere outer-tropical Andes, providing little support for the dominant role of insolation forcing in these regions. Today, sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean modulate rainfall variability in the outer tropical Andes of both hemispheres, and we suggest that this mechanism was pervasive throughout the Holocene. Our findings imply that oceanic forcing plays a larger role in regional South American climate than previously suspected, and that Pacific sea-surface temperatures have the capacity to induce abrupt and sustained shifts in Andean climate. PMID:23959896

Forced and Internal Multi-Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic and their Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.

2017-12-01

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), a basin-wide North Atlantic sea surface temperature warming or cooling pattern varying on decadal and longer time scales, is one of the most important climate variations in the Atlantic basin. The AMV has shown to be associated with significant climate impacts regionally and globally, from Atlantic hurricane activities, frequency and severity of droughts across North America, as well as rainfall anomalies across the African Sahel and northeast Brazil. Despite the important impacts of the AMV, its mechanisms are not completely understood. In particular, it is not clear how much of the historical Atlantic SST fluctuations were forced by anthropogenic sources such as greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling, versus driven internally by changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes in the Atlantic. Using climate models such as the NCAR large ensemble simulations, we were able to successfully separate the forced and internally generated North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies through a signal-to-noise maximizing Empirical Orthogonal Function (S/N EOF) analysis method. Two forced modes were identified with one representing a hemispherical symmetric mode and one asymmetric mode. The symmetric mode largely represents the greenhouse forced component while the asymmetric mode resembles the anthropogenic aerosol forcing. When statistically removing both of the forced modes, the residual multidecadal Atlantic SST variability shows a very similar structure as the AMV in the preindustrial simulation. The distinct climate impacts of each of these modes are also identified and the implications and challenges for decadal climate prediction will be discussed.

Downscaling Aerosols and the Impact of Neglected Subgrid Processes on Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing for a Representative Global Climate Model Grid Spacing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gustafson, William I.; Qian, Yun; Fast, Jerome D.

2011-07-13

Recent improvements to many global climate models include detailed, prognostic aerosol calculations intended to better reproduce the observed climate. However, the trace gas and aerosol fields are treated at the grid-cell scale with no attempt to account for sub-grid impacts on the aerosol fields. This paper begins to quantify the error introduced by the neglected sub-grid variability for the shortwave aerosol radiative forcing for a representative climate model grid spacing of 75 km. An analysis of the value added in downscaling aerosol fields is also presented to give context to the WRF-Chem simulations used for the sub-grid analysis. We foundmore » that 1) the impact of neglected sub-grid variability on the aerosol radiative forcing is strongest in regions of complex topography and complicated flow patterns, and 2) scale-induced differences in emissions contribute strongly to the impact of neglected sub-grid processes on the aerosol radiative forcing. The two of these effects together, when simulated at 75 km vs. 3 km in WRF-Chem, result in an average daytime mean bias of over 30% error in top-of-atmosphere shortwave aerosol radiative forcing for a large percentage of central Mexico during the MILAGRO field campaign.« less

Relating large-scale climate variability to local species abundance: ENSO forcing and shrimp in Breton Sound, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piazza, Bryan P.; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Keim, B.D.

2010-01-01

Climate creates environmental constraints (filters) that affect the abundance and distribution of species. In estuaries, these constraints often result from variability in water flow properties and environmental conditions (i.e. water flow, salinity, water temperature) and can have significant effects on the abundance and distribution of commercially important nekton species. We investigated links between large-scale climate variability and juvenile brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus abundance in Breton Sound estuary, Louisiana (USA). Our goals were to (1) determine if a teleconnection exists between local juvenile brown shrimp abundance and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and (2) relate that linkage to environmental constraints that may affect juvenile brown shrimp recruitment to, and survival in, the estuary. Our results identified a teleconnection between winter ENSO conditions and juvenile brown shrimp abundance in Breton Sound estuary the following spring. The physical connection results from the impact of ENSO on winter weather conditions in Breton Sound (air pressure, temperature, and precipitation). Juvenile brown shrimp abundance effects lagged ENSO by 3 mo: lower than average abundances of juvenile brown shrimp were caught in springs following winter El Niño events, and higher than average abundances of brown shrimp were caught in springs following La Niña winters. Salinity was the dominant ENSO-forced environmental filter for juvenile brown shrimp. Spring salinity was cumulatively forced by winter river discharge, winter wind forcing, and spring precipitation. Thus, predicting brown shrimp abundance requires incorporating climate variability into models.

Detecting climate forcing and feedback signals in surface climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2015-04-01

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to the build-up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous feedback processes which can introduce strong, regionalized asymmetries to the overall warming trend. These processes alter the surface energy budget, and thus affect the surface air temperature, which is one of the primary measures of how the climate is changing. However, the degree to which a given forcing or feedback process alters surface temperatures is contingent on the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere which is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, which can lead to a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. Therefore, if a climate forcing or feedback is acting across a wide range of conditions of the boundary layer, then this non-linear response of the surface climate to perturbations in the forcing must be accounted for in order to correctly assess the effect of the forcing on the surface climatology.

Data-based discharge extrapolation: estimating annual discharge for a partially gauged large river basin from its small sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.

2013-12-01

Large-scale hydrological models and land surface models are by far the only tools for accessing future water resources in climate change impact studies. Those models estimate discharge with large uncertainties, due to the complex interaction between climate and hydrology, the limited quality and availability of data, as well as model uncertainties. A new purely data-based scale-extrapolation method is proposed, to estimate water resources for a large basin solely from selected small sub-basins, which are typically two-orders-of-magnitude smaller than the large basin. Those small sub-basins contain sufficient information, not only on climate and land surface, but also on hydrological characteristics for the large basin In the Baltic Sea drainage basin, best discharge estimation for the gauged area was achieved with sub-basins that cover 2-4% of the gauged area. There exist multiple sets of sub-basins that resemble the climate and hydrology of the basin equally well. Those multiple sets estimate annual discharge for gauged area consistently well with 5% average error. The scale-extrapolation method is completely data-based; therefore it does not force any modelling error into the prediction. The multiple predictions are expected to bracket the inherent variations and uncertainties of the climate and hydrology of the basin. The method can be applied in both un-gauged basins and un-gauged periods with uncertainty estimation.

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change research. We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharge using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series. From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.

Early warning of climate tipping points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenton, Timothy M.

2011-07-01

A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.

Model Sensitivity to North Atlantic Freshwater Forcing at 8.2 Ka

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrill, Carrie; Legrande, Allegra Nicole; Renssen, H.; Bakker, P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2013-01-01

We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10-25%in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of approx.150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

PubMed

Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-03-17

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Climate forcing for dynamics of dissolved inorganic nutrients at Palmer Station, Antarctica: An interdecadal (1993-2013) analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyewon; Doney, Scott C.; Iannuzzi, Richard A.; Meredith, Michael P.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Ducklow, Hugh W.

2016-09-01

We analyzed 20 years (1993-2013) of observations of dissolved inorganic macronutrients (nitrate, N; phosphate, P; and silicate, Si) and chlorophyll a (Chl) at Palmer Station, Antarctica (64.8°S, 64.1°W) to elucidate how large-scale climate and local physical forcing affect the interannual variability in the seasonal phytoplankton bloom and associated drawdown of nutrients. The leading modes of nutrients (N, P, and Si empirical orthogonal functions 1, EOF1) represent overall negative anomalies throughout growing seasons, showing a mixed signal of variability in the initial levels and drawdown thereafter (low-frequency dynamics). The second most common seasonal patterns of nitrate and phosphate (N and P EOF2) capture prolonged drawdown events during December-March, which are correlated to Chl EOF1. Si EOF2 captures a drawdown event during November-December, which is correlated to Chl EOF2. These different drawdown patterns are shaped by different sets of physical and climate forcing mechanisms. N and P drawdown events during December-March are influenced by the winter and spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase, where nutrient utilization is enhanced in a stabilized upper water column as a consequence of SAM-driven winter sea ice and spring wind dynamics. Si drawdown during November-December is influenced by early sea ice retreat, where ice breakup may induce abrupt water column stratification and a subsequent diatom bloom or release of diatom cells from within the sea ice. Our findings underscore that seasonal nutrient dynamics in the coastal WAP are coupled to large-scale climate forcing and related physics, understanding of which may enable improved projections of biogeochemical responses to climate change.

Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years.

PubMed

Salvatteci, Renato; Field, David; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Baumgartner, Tim; Ferreira, Vicente; Ortlieb, Luc; Sifeddine, Abdel; Grados, Daniel; Bertrand, Arnaud

2018-03-01

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large-scale forcing controls decadal-scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin-scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large-scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long-term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom-up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

DOE PAGES

Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; ...

2015-02-11

We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification ofmore » key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.« less

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

Volcanic influence on centennial to millennial Holocene Greenland temperature change.

PubMed

Kobashi, Takuro; Menviel, Laurie; Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich; Vinther, Bo M; Box, Jason E; Muscheler, Raimund; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Pfister, Patrik L; Döring, Michael; Leuenberger, Markus; Wanner, Heinz; Ohmura, Atsumu

2017-05-03

Solar variability has been hypothesized to be a major driver of North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variations through the Holocene along with orbitally induced insolation change. However, another important climate driver, volcanic forcing has generally been underestimated prior to the past 2,500 years partly owing to the lack of proper proxy temperature records. Here, we reconstruct seasonally unbiased and physically constrained Greenland Summit temperatures over the Holocene using argon and nitrogen isotopes within trapped air in a Greenland ice core (GISP2). We show that a series of volcanic eruptions through the Holocene played an important role in driving centennial to millennial-scale temperature changes in Greenland. The reconstructed Greenland temperature exhibits significant millennial correlations with K + and Na + ions in the GISP2 ice core (proxies for atmospheric circulation patterns), and δ 18 O of Oman and Chinese Dongge cave stalagmites (proxies for monsoon activity), indicating that the reconstructed temperature contains hemispheric signals. Climate model simulations forced with the volcanic forcing further suggest that a series of large volcanic eruptions induced hemispheric-wide centennial to millennial-scale variability through ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. Therefore, we conclude that volcanic activity played a critical role in driving centennial to millennial-scale Holocene temperature variability in Greenland and likely beyond.

Development of the Large-Scale Forcing Data to Support MC3E Cloud Modeling Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

The large-scale forcing fields (e.g., vertical velocity and advective tendencies) are required to run single-column and cloud-resolving models (SCMs/CRMs), which are the two key modeling frameworks widely used to link field data to climate model developments. In this study, we use an advanced objective analysis approach to derive the required forcing data from the soundings collected by the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) in support of its cloud modeling studies. MC3E is the latest major field campaign conducted during the period 22 April 2011 to 06 June 2011 in south-central Oklahoma through a joint effort between the DOE ARM program and the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Program. One of its primary goals is to provide a comprehensive dataset that can be used to describe the large-scale environment of convective cloud systems and evaluate model cumulus parameterizations. The objective analysis used in this study is the constrained variational analysis method. A unique feature of this approach is the use of domain-averaged surface and top-of-the atmosphere (TOA) observations (e.g., precipitation and radiative and turbulent fluxes) as constraints to adjust atmospheric state variables from soundings by the smallest possible amount to conserve column-integrated mass, moisture, and static energy so that the final analysis data is dynamically and thermodynamically consistent. To address potential uncertainties in the surface observations, an ensemble forcing dataset will be developed. Multi-scale forcing will be also created for simulating various scale convective systems. At the meeting, we will provide more details about the forcing development and present some preliminary analysis of the characteristics of the large-scale forcing structures for several selected convective systems observed during MC3E.

Improving the representation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation using spectral nudging in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spero, Tanya L.; Otte, Martin J.; Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.

2014-10-01

Spectral nudging—a scale-selective interior constraint technique—is commonly used in regional climate models to maintain consistency with large-scale forcing while permitting mesoscale features to develop in the downscaled simulations. Several studies have demonstrated that spectral nudging improves the representation of regional climate in reanalysis-forced simulations compared with not using nudging in the interior of the domain. However, in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, spectral nudging tends to produce degraded precipitation simulations when compared to analysis nudging—an interior constraint technique that is scale indiscriminate but also operates on moisture fields which until now could not be altered directly by spectral nudging. Since analysis nudging is less desirable for regional climate modeling because it dampens fine-scale variability, changes are proposed to the spectral nudging methodology to capitalize on differences between the nudging techniques and aim to improve the representation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation without compromising other fields. These changes include adding spectral nudging toward moisture, limiting nudging to below the tropopause, and increasing the nudging time scale for potential temperature, all of which collectively improve the representation of mean and extreme precipitation, 2 m temperature, clouds, and radiation, as demonstrated using a model-simulated 20 year historical period. Such improvements to WRF may increase the fidelity of regional climate data used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human health and the environment and aid in climate change mitigation and adaptation studies.

South American Climate Variability: Remote and Regional Forcing Processes of the Holocene and the LGM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.

2006-12-01

An overview of concepts used in studying climate variability is provided as an introduction. Internally generated variability is the result of interactions within a system, while externally forced variability arises when some factor outside of the system causes a change. Distinguishing between the two requires a definition of the boundaries of "the system" considered. Climate variability is also classified according to space and time scales, for example, regional to global space scales and/or intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal, and millennial time scales. Any of these variability signatures may be internally generated or externally forced. A discussion of some of the climate forcing factors and physical processes thought to be relevant in determining climate variations of the past 20,000 years over South America is presented. An exhaustive treatment is not practical, and there are still many unknowns. Prominent in the literature are studies that discuss the influence of the ITCZ on South American precipitation. Other investigations focus on the South American monsoon dynamics. The physical processes that support these two precipitation systems are quite different, so the modes of variability that they exhibit also differ and it is important to clearly distinguish between them. The ITCZ is zonally elongated, formed by meridional convergence in the tropics. It is largely a structure of the atmosphere over the ocean, and persists throughout the year. Its position and strength vary with SST gradients and the vertical stability of the atmosphere. In contrast, a monsoon system is seasonal, and arises because of the different heat capacities of the land and ocean. It is influenced by land surface features such as vegetation and topography, and SSTs in the vicinity of the continent. Monsoon systems may also vary due to remote and/or large-scale forcing factors such as global sea surface temperature distributions and Hadley and Walker circulations. An example for the LGM climate of South America is presented to distinguish between the variations of ITCZ and monsoon dynamics. Another example presented concerns remote forcing of South American climate from an "intercontinental teleconnection" from Africa. GCM simulations show that summertime precipitation rates in Brazil's Nordeste region would be significantly greater in the absence of the African continent, and precipitation rates over the Amazon basin would be smaller. The generation of a Walker circulation by heating over southern Africa is the cause, and the effect is amplified by land surface feedbacks over South America. The teleconnection is sensitive to the distance between the two continents, to the strength and position of the heating over Africa, and the land surface characteristics over both South America and Africa. The east/west circulation influences the north/south position of the Atlantic ITCZ when asymmetry in surface conditions over Africa displaces the meridional convergence.

Non-radiative processes dominate land surface signals in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bright, R. M.; Davin, E.; O'Halloran, T. L.; Pongratz, J.; Zhao, K.; Cescatti, A.

2016-12-01

Perturbations to the surface energy budget linked to land cover/land management changes (LCMC) are rarely included in land-climate assessments although they have long been recognized as important drivers of local climate change. At local scales, climate forcings from LCMC depend strongly on changes to surface energy redistribution by various non-radiative mechanisms, dampening or even outweighing the local radiative effect of an albedo change. The extent to which these mechanisms are locally relevant for different types of LCMC across the world remains largely unquantified. Here, we combine extensive records of remote sensing and in-situ observations to quantify local forcings for nine common real-world LCMC perturbations, identifying their underlying physical mechanisms and analyzing their spatial patterns at the global scale. We find that throughout the densely populated regions, non-radiative forcings dominate the local surface temperature response in 8 of 9 LCMC scenarios. Further, the observed local response to re-/afforestation is an annual cooling in all regions south of the upper conterminous United States, Western Europe, and Indo-China. Given that the global response to re-/afforestation in these regions is likely a cooling, projects here can be seen as attractive mitigation measures. Our results - gridded to a 1° x 1° resolution - can be directly used to evaluate climate models or compute indicators providing a more comprehensive picture of the trade-offs between local and global climate forcings linked to land sector projects and policies.

Tracing Multi-Scale Climate Change at Low Latitude from Glacier Shrinkage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moelg, T.; Cullen, N. J.; Hardy, D. R.; Kaser, G.

2009-12-01

Significant shrinkage of glaciers on top of Africa's highest mountain (Kilimanjaro, 5895 m a.s.l.) has been observed between the late 19th century and the present. Multi-year data from our automatic weather station on the largest remaining slope glacier at 5873 m allow us to force and verify a process-based distributed glacier mass balance model. This generates insights into energy and mass fluxes at the glacier-atmosphere interface, their feedbacks, and how they are linked to atmospheric conditions. By means of numerical atmospheric modeling and global climate model simulations, we explore the linkages of the local climate in Kilimanjaro's summit zone to larger-scale climate dynamics - which suggests a causal connection between Indian Ocean dynamics, mesoscale mountain circulation, and glacier mass balance. Based on this knowledge, the verified mass balance model is used for backward modeling of the steady-state glacier extent observed in the 19th century, which yields the characteristics of local climate change between that time and the present (30-45% less precipitation, 0.1-0.3 hPa less water vapor pressure, 2-4 percentage units less cloud cover at present). Our multi-scale approach provides an important contribution, from a cryospheric viewpoint, to the understanding of how large-scale climate change propagates to the tropical free troposphere. Ongoing work in this context targets the millennium-scale relation between large-scale climate and glacier behavior (by downscaling precipitation), and the possible effects of regional anthropogenic activities (land use change) on glacier mass balance.

Large scale, synchronous variability of marine fish populations driven by commercial exploitation.

PubMed

Frank, Kenneth T; Petrie, Brian; Leggett, William C; Boyce, Daniel G

2016-07-19

Synchronous variations in the abundance of geographically distinct marine fish populations are known to occur across spatial scales on the order of 1,000 km and greater. The prevailing assumption is that this large-scale coherent variability is a response to coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, commonly represented by climate indexes, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. On the other hand, it has been suggested that exploitation might contribute to this coherent variability. This possibility has been generally ignored or dismissed on the grounds that exploitation is unlikely to operate synchronously at such large spatial scales. Our analysis of adult fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass of 22 North Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks revealed that both the temporal and spatial scales in fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass were equivalent to those of the climate drivers. From these results, we conclude that greater consideration must be given to the potential of exploitation as a driving force behind broad, coherent variability of heavily exploited fish species.

Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales

Treesearch

Stephanie K. Moore; Nathan J. Mantua; Jonathan P. Kellogg; Jan A. Newton

2008-01-01

The influence of climate on Puget Sound oceanographic properties is investigated on seasonal to interannual timescales using continuous profile data at 16 stations from 1993 to 2002 and records of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) from 1951 to 2002. Principal components analyses of profile data identify indices representing 42%, 58%, and 56%...

Changes of climate regimes during the last millennium and the twenty-first century simulated by the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei; Feng, Song; Liu, Chang; Chen, Jie; Chen, Jianhui; Chen, Fahu

2018-01-01

This study examines the shifts in terrestrial climate regimes using the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification by analyzing the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulations for the period 850-2005 and CESM Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and CESM with fixed aerosols Medium Ensemble (CESM-LE_FixA) simulations for the period 1920-2080. We compare K-T climate types from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (950-1250) with the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1550-1850), from present day (PD) (1971-2000) with the last millennium (LM) (850-1850), and from the future (2050-2080) with the LM in order to place anthropogenic changes in the context of changes due to natural forcings occurring during the last millennium. For CESM-LME, we focused on the simulations with all forcings, though the impacts of individual forcings (e.g., solar activities, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use changes) were also analyzed. We found that the climate types changed slightly between the MCA and the LIA due to weak changes in temperature and precipitation. The climate type changes in PD relative to the last millennium have been largely driven by greenhouse gas-induced warming, but anthropogenic aerosols have also played an important role on regional scales. At the end of the twenty-first century, the anthropogenic forcing has a much greater effect on climate types than the PD. Following the reduction of aerosol emissions, the impact of greenhouse gases will further promote global warming in the future. Compared to precipitation, changes in climate types are dominated by greenhouse gas-induced warming. The large shift in climate types by the end of this century suggests possible wide-spread redistribution of surface vegetation and a significant change in species distributions.

The effect of aerosols on northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica M. L.

2010-05-01

Aerosol particles have a considerable impact on the energy budget of the atmosphere because of their ability to scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. Since the beginning of the industrialisation a large increase has been seen mainly in the concentrations of sulphate and black carbon as a result of combustion of fossil fuel and biomass burning. Aerosol particles have a relatively short residence time in the atmosphere why the aerosol concentration shows a large variation spatially as well as in time where high concentrations are found close to emission sources. This leads to a highly varying radiative forcing pattern which modifies temperature gradients which in turn can alter the pressure distribution and lead to changes in the circulation in the atmosphere. In this study, the effect on the wintertime planetary scale waves on the northern hemisphere is specifically considered together with the regional climate impact due to changes in the stationary waves. To investigate the effect of aerosols on the circulation a global general circulation model based on the ECMWF operational forecast model is used (EC-Earth). The aerosol description in EC-Earth consists of prescribed monthly mean mass concentration fields of five different types of aerosols: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. Only the direct radiative effect is considered and the different aerosol types are treated as external mixtures. Changes in the stationary wave pattern are determined by comparing model simulations using present-day and pre-industrial concentrations of aerosol particles. Since the planetary scale waves largely influence the storm tracks and are an important part of the meridional heat transport, changes in the wave pattern may have substantial impact on the climate globally and locally. By looking at changes in the model simulations globally it can be found that the aerosol radiative forcing has the potential to change the stationary wave pattern. Furthermore, it shows that regional changes in the climate occur also where the radiative forcing from aerosol particles is not particularly strong, which would indicate that the large scale dynamical response to aerosol forcing can induce changes in temperature, precipitation and wind patterns outside the region where the forcing is initially located.

The Influence of the Green River Lake System on the Local Climate During the Early Eocene Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elguindi, N.; Thrasher, B.; Sloan, L. C.

2006-12-01

Several modeling efforts have attempted to reproduce the climate of the early Eocene North America. However when compared to proxy data, General Circulation Models (GCMs) tend to produce a large-scale cold-bias. Although higher resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that are able to resolve many of the sub-GCM scale forcings improve this cold bias, RCMs are still unable to reproduce the warm climate of the Eocene. From geologic data, we know that the greater Green River and the Uinta basins were intermontane basins with a large lake system during portions of the Eocene. We speculate that the lack of presence of these lakes in previous modeling studies may explain part of the persistent cold-bias of GCMs and RCMs. In this study, we utilize a regional climate model coupled with a 1D-lake model in an attempt to reduce the uncertainties and biases associated with climate simulations over Eocene western North American. Specifically, we include the Green River Lake system in our RCM simulation and compare climates with and without lakes to proxy data.

Review of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions: Mechanisms, Significance, and Challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Wang, Yuan; Rosenfeld, Daniel

2016-11-01

Over the past decade, the number of studies that investigate aerosol-cloud interactions has increased considerably. Although tremendous progress has been made to improve our understanding of basic physical mechanisms of aerosol-cloud interactions and reduce their uncertainties in climate forcing, we are still in poor understanding of (1) some of the mechanisms that interact with each other over multiple spatial and temporal scales, (2) the feedback between microphysical and dynamical processes and between local-scale processes and large-scale circulations, and (3) the significance of cloud-aerosol interactions on weather systems as well as regional and global climate. This review focuses on recent theoreticalmore » studies and important mechanisms on aerosol-cloud interactions, and discusses the significances of aerosol impacts on raditative forcing and precipitation extremes associated with different cloud systems. Despite significant understanding has been gained about aerosol impacts on the main cloud types, there are still many unknowns especially associated with various deep convective systems. Therefore, large efforts are needed to escalate our understanding. Future directions should focus on obtaining concurrent measurements of aerosol properties, cloud microphysical and dynamic properties over a range of temporal and spatial scales collected over typical climate regimes and closure studies, as well as improving understanding and parameterizations of cloud microphysics such as ice nucleation, mixed-phase properties, and hydrometeor size and fall speed« less

Climatic effects of large-scale deforestation in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Pongratz, J.

2017-12-01

Processes in terrestrial ecosystems, to a large extent, are controlled by climate and CO2 concentration. In turn, geographical distribution of vegetation cover strongly affects heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes between land surface and atmosphere (biogeophysical effects). Anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are now included into Earth System Models (ESMs) in the form of historical and hypothetical future scenarios as a forcing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison project, phase 6 (CMIP6). A propagation of climatic effects from land to the ocean in ESMs allows to investigate a global climate response to LULCC in addition to analysis of local effects over deforested land. One complication in the analysis of global climatic effects of historical and future LULCC scenarios is their relatively small amplitude. To increase the signal-to-noise ratio, the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) suggested an idealized deforestation simulation following a prototype of 1%-CO2 increase experiment commonly used in CMIPs. The idealized experiment allows to investigate - in a harmonized way across models - a response of land surface biophysics and climate to a large-scale deforestation of 20 million km2 distributed over the most forested parts of globe. The forest is removed linearly over a period of 50 years, with an additional 30 years with no specified change in forest cover. Boundary conditions such as CO2 concentration and other forcings are kept at the pre-industrial level. We will present results of idealized deforestation experiments and other sensitivity runs with the CMIP6-version of MPI-ESM, which will be part of the later multi-model comparison. A special focus will be put on less well investigated aspects of LULCC that the idealized setup is particularly well suited for studying, such as non-linearities of the model response to the deforestation forcing and detectability of the signal over time.

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based dataset covering years 1600-present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arfeuille, F.; Weisenstein, D.; Mack, H.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.; Brönnimann, S.

2013-02-01

As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now not only linked to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for General-Circulation-Model (GCM) and Chemistry-Climate-Model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600-present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions are in good agreement with observations. By providing accurate amplitude and spatial distributions of shortwave and longwave radiative perturbations by volcanic sulfate aerosols, we argue that this volcanic forcing may help refine the climate model responses to the large volcanic eruptions since 1600. The final dataset consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

Impacts of large scale afforestation on regional climate: a case study in the Kubuqi Desert, Inner Mongolia based on WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Lin, G.; Feng, D.; Chen, S.; Schultz, N. M.; Fu, C.; Wei, Z.; Yin, C.; Wang, W.; Lee, X.

2017-12-01

To better design climate mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the response of regional climatic indicators and related biophysical forcings to large scale afforestation projects. The response of surface temperature (Ts) caused by afforestation activities in the Kubuqi Desert, Inner Mongolia, China is simulated by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the temperature changes (ΔTs) are decomposed into contributions from changes in surface albedo, surface roughness, Bowen ratio and ground heat flux using the intrinsic biophysical mechanism (IBPM). The 30-m resolution land cover maps of the Kubuqi Desert corresponding to 2000 and 2010 conditions are analyzed and the major land use changes are found to be an increase in the area of grassland (6%) and shrubland (15%), but a decrease in the area of bare land (21%) owed to the aerial seeding afforestation activities organized by Elion Resources Group, Co. and local government agencies. Our WRF simulations show that during winter, the increased cover of vegetation mainly has a warming effect (0.38 K) in the daytime due to the changes in albedo (0.24 K) and Bowen ratio (0.15 K). In the nighttime, the vegetation has a slight warming effect (0.2 K) mainly caused by energy redistribution associated with roughness change (0.2 K) as a result of vegetation turbulence, which brought heat from aloft to the surface. Although both roughness change (-0.35 K) and Bowen ratio change (-0.35 K) have cooling effects during summer days, the warming effect caused by radiative forcing (0.93 K) dominates the ΔTs. During summer nights, the change in surface temperature is not significant. Our findings demonstrate that the large-scale afforestation project in the Kubuqi Desert during a decade alters the regional surface temperature and the analysis of biophysical forcings changes using WRF simulation provides useful information for developing climate change mitigation strategies in semi-arid and arid regions.

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

2010-12-14

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, andmore » we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.« less

Evaluating the Performance of the Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework against GPM, TRMM and CloudSat/CALIPSO Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, J. D.; Tao, W. K.; Lang, S. E.; Matsui, T.; Mohr, K. I.

2014-12-01

Four six-month (March-August 2014) experiments with the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) were performed to study the impacts of different Goddard one-moment bulk microphysical schemes and large-scale forcings on the performance of the MMF. Recently a new Goddard one-moment bulk microphysics with four-ice classes (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) has been developed based on cloud-resolving model simulations with large-scale forcings from field campaign observations. The new scheme has been successfully implemented to the MMF and two MMF experiments were carried out with this new scheme and the old three-ice classes (cloud ice, snow graupel) scheme. The MMF has global coverage and can rigorously evaluate microphysics performance for different cloud regimes. The results show MMF with the new scheme outperformed the old one. The MMF simulations are also strongly affected by the interaction between large-scale and cloud-scale processes. Two MMF sensitivity experiments with and without nudging large-scale forcings to those of ERA-Interim reanalysis were carried out to study the impacts of large-scale forcings. The model simulated mean and variability of surface precipitation, cloud types, cloud properties such as cloud amount, hydrometeors vertical profiles, and cloud water contents, etc. in different geographic locations and climate regimes are evaluated against GPM, TRMM, CloudSat/CALIPSO satellite observations. The Goddard MMF has also been coupled with the Goddard Satellite Data Simulation Unit (G-SDSU), a system with multi-satellite, multi-sensor, and multi-spectrum satellite simulators. The statistics of MMF simulated radiances and backscattering can be directly compared with satellite observations to assess the strengths and/or deficiencies of MMF simulations and provide guidance on how to improve the MMF and microphysics.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

PubMed Central

Devaraju, N.; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-01-01

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures. PMID:25733889

Progress in fast, accurate multi-scale climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Collins, W. D.; Johansen, H.; Evans, K. J.; ...

2015-06-01

We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to contribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth with these computational improvements include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enablingmore » improved accuracy and fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allowing more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, partnerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures such as many-core processors and GPUs. As a result, approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

Autogenic and Allogenic: Emergent Coastline Patterns Interact With Forcing Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Mendez, F. J.; Moore, L. J.; Wood, J.; Farley, G.

2017-12-01

A range of coastline shapes can emerge from large-scale morphodynamic interactions. Coastline shape determines local wave influences. Local wave influences (fluxes of alongshore momentum), determine sediment fluxes, and gradients in these sediment fluxes, in turn, alter coastline shape. Modeling studies show that such feedbacks lead to an instability, and to subsequent finite-amplitude interactions, producing self-organized patterns and emergent structures including sandwaves, capes, and spits (e.g. Ashton and Murray, 2006; Ashton et al., 2015); spiral bays on rocky coastlines (e.g. Barkwith et al., 2014); and convex, spit-bounded coastlines (Ells et al., in prep.). Coastline shapes depend sensitively on wave climate, defined as the angular distribution of wave influences on alongshore sediment transport. Therefore, shifts in wave climate arising from shifts in storms (decadal scale fluctuations or longer-term trends) will tend to change coastline shape. Previous efforts have detected changing coastline shape, likely related to changing influence from hurricane-generated waves, as expressed in changes in the location and intensity of coastal erosion zones along the cuspate capes in North Carolina, USA (Moore et al., 2013). These efforts involved the assumption that coastline response to changing forcing occurs in a quasi-equilibrium manner. However, in some cases coastline responses can exhibit long-term memory and path dependence (Thomas et al., 2016). Recently, we have hindcast the wave climate affecting the North Carolina coast since 1870, using a series of statistical analyses to downscale from basin-scale surface pressure fields to regional deep-water wave climate, and then a numerical transformation to local offshore wave climate. We used this wave climate as input for the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM). The results show that the emergent coastline features respond to decadal-scale shifts in wave climate, but with time lags that complicate the relationship between forcing and coastline shape. Comparisons between model predictions and observed shoreline-change patterns support the suggestion that the relationship between emergent coastline behaviours (autogenic processes) and external influences (autogenic forcing) involves such memory effects (Antolinez et al., in revision).

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes.

Data-driven Climate Modeling and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.

2016-12-01

Global climate models aim to simulate a broad range of spatio-temporal scales of climate variability with state vector having many millions of degrees of freedom. On the other hand, while detailed weather prediction out to a few days requires high numerical resolution, it is fairly clear that a major fraction of large-scale climate variability can be predicted in a much lower-dimensional phase space. Low-dimensional models can simulate and predict this fraction of climate variability, provided they are able to account for linear and nonlinear interactions between the modes representing large scales of climate dynamics, as well as their interactions with a much larger number of modes representing fast and small scales. This presentation will highlight several new applications by Multilayered Stochastic Modeling (MSM) [Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil, 2015] framework that has abundantly proven its efficiency in the modeling and real-time forecasting of various climate phenomena. MSM is a data-driven inverse modeling technique that aims to obtain a low-order nonlinear system of prognostic equations driven by stochastic forcing, and estimates both the dynamical operator and the properties of the driving noise from multivariate time series of observations or a high-end model's simulation. MSM leads to a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) involving hidden (auxiliary) variables of fast-small scales ranked by layers, which interact with the macroscopic (observed) variables of large-slow scales to model the dynamics of the latter, and thus convey memory effects. New MSM climate applications focus on development of computationally efficient low-order models by using data-adaptive decomposition methods that convey memory effects by time-embedding techniques, such as Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA) [Ghil et al. 2002] and recently developed Data-Adaptive Harmonic (DAH) decomposition method [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2016]. In particular, new results by DAH-MSM modeling and prediction of Arctic Sea Ice, as well as decadal predictions of near-surface Earth temperatures will be presented.

A Scaling Model for the Anthropocene Climate Variability with Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

The determination of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is a fundamental climate science problem with important policy implications. We use a scaling model, with a limited set of parameters, which can directly calculate the forced globally-average surface air temperature response to anthropogenic and natural forcings. At timescales larger than an inner scale τ, which we determine as the ocean-atmosphere coupling scale at around 2 years, the global system responds, approximately, linearly, so that the variability may be decomposed into additive forced and internal components. The Ruelle response theory extends the classical linear response theory for small perturbations to systems far from equilibrium. Our model thus relates radiative forcings to a forced temperature response by convolution with a suitable Green's function, or climate response function. Motivated by scaling symmetries which allow for long range dependence, we assume a general scaling form, a scaling climate response function (SCRF) which is able to produce a wide range of responses: a power-law truncated at τ. This allows us to analytically calculate the climate sensitivity at different time scales, yielding a one-to-one relation from the transient climate response to the equilibrium climate sensitivity which are estimated, respectively, as 1.6+0.3-0.2K and 2.4+1.3-0.6K at the 90 % confidence level. The model parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework, with a fractional Gaussian noise error model as the internal variability, from forcing series, instrumental surface temperature datasets and CMIP5 GCMs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario runs. This observation based model is robust and projections for the coming century are made following the RCP scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, yielding in the year 2100, respectively : 1.5 +0.3)_{-0.2K, 2.3 ± 0.4 K and 4.0 ± 0.6 K at the 90 % confidence level. For comparison, the associated projections from a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble(MME) (32 models) are: 1.7 ± 0.8 K, 2.6 ± 0.8 K and 4.8 ± 1.3 K. Therefore, our projection uncertainty is less than half the structural uncertainty of this CMIP5 MME.

Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

2008-12-01

The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

Solar Variability in the Context of Other Climate Forcing Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1999-01-01

I compare and contrast climate forcings due to solar variability with climate forcings due to other mechanisms of climate change, interpretation of the role of the sun in climate change depends upon climate sensitivity and upon the net forcing by other climate change mechanisms. Among the potential indirect climate forcings due to solar variability, only that due to solar cycle induced ozone changes has been well quantified. There is evidence that the sun has been a significant player in past climate change on decadal to century time scales, and that it has the potential to contribute to climate change in the 21st century.

Elucidating Critical Zone Process Interactions with an Integrated Hydrology Model in a Headwaters Research Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

2017-12-01

Providence Creek (P300) watershed is an alpine headwaters catchment located at the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Evidence of groundwater-dependent vegetation and drought-induced tree mortality at P300 along with the effect of subsurface characterization on mountain ecohydrology motivates this study. A hyper resolution integrated hydrology model of this site, along with extensive instrumentation, provides an opportunity to study the effects of lateral groundwater flow on vegetation's tolerance to drought. ParFlow-CLM is a fully integrated surface-subsurface model that is driven with reconstructed meteorology, such as the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset. However, large-scale data products mute orographic effects on climate at smaller scales. Climate variables often do not behave uniformly in highly heterogeneous mountain regions. Therefore, forcing physically-based integrated hydrologic models—especially of mountain headwaters catchments—with a large-scale data product is a major challenge. Obtaining reliable observations in complex terrain is challenging and while climate data products introduce uncertainties likewise, documented discrepancies between several data products and P300 observations suggest these data products may suffice. To tackle these issues, a suite of simulations was run to parse out (1) the effects of climate data source (data products versus observations) and (2) the effects of climate data spatial variability. One tool for evaluating the effect of climate data on model outputs is the relationship between latent head flux (LH) and evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning with water table depth (WTD). This zone of LH sensitivity to WTD is referred to as the "critical zone." Preliminary results suggest that these critical zone relationships are preserved despite forcing albeit significant shifts in magnitude. These results demonstrate that integrated hydrology models are sensitive to climate data thereby impacting the accuracy of hydrologic modeling of headwaters catchments used for water management and planning purposes and exploring the effects of climate change perturbations.

Sensitivity of tropical convection in cloud-resolving WRF simulations to model physics and forcing procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, S.; Lin, W.; Jackson, R. C.; Collis, S. M.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Wang, D.; Oue, M.; Kollias, P.

2017-12-01

Tropical convection is one of the main drivers of the climate system and recognized as a major source of uncertainty in climate models. High-resolution modeling is performed with a focus on the deep convection cases during the active monsoon period of the TWP-ICE field campaign to explore ways to improve the fidelity of convection permitting tropical simulations. Cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations are performed with WRF modified to apply flexible configurations for LES/CRM simulations. We have enhanced the capability of the forcing module to test different implementations of large-scale vertical advective forcing, including a function for optional use of large-scale thermodynamic profiles and a function for the condensate advection. The baseline 3D CRM configurations are, following Fridlind et al. (2012), driven by observationally-constrained ARM forcing and tested with diagnosed surface fluxes and fixed sea-surface temperature and prescribed aerosol size distributions. After the spin-up period, the simulations follow the observed precipitation peaks associated with the passages of precipitation systems. Preliminary analysis shows that the simulation is generally not sensitive to the treatment of the large-scale vertical advection of heat and moisture, while more noticeable changes in the peak precipitation rate are produced when thermodynamic profiles above the boundary layer were nudged to the reference profiles from the forcing dataset. The presentation will explore comparisons with observationally-based metrics associated with convective characteristics and examine the model performance with a focus on model physics, doubly-periodic vs. nested configurations, and different forcing procedures/sources. A radar simulator will be used to understand possible uncertainties in radar-based retrievals of convection properties. Fridlind, A. M., et al. (2012), A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05204, doi:10.1029/2011JD016595.

Understanding observed and simulated historical temperature trends in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C. J.; Duffy, P. B.; Santer, B. D.; Lobell, D. B.; Wigley, T. M.

2006-12-01

In our study, we attempt 1) to improve our understanding of observed historical temperature trends and their underlying causes in the context of regional detection of climate change and 2) to identify possible neglected forcings and errors in the model response to imposed forcings at the origin of inconsistencies between models and observations. From eight different observational datasets, we estimate California-average temperature trends over 1950- 1999 and compare them to trends from a suite of IPCC control simulations of natural internal climate variability. We find that the substantial night-time warming occurring from January to September is inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural internal climate variability, and thus requires one or more external forcing agents to be explained. In contrast, we find that a significant day-time warming occurs only from January to March. Our confidence in these findings is increased because there is no evidence that the models systematically underestimate noise on interannual and decadal timescales. However, we also find that IPCC simulations of the 20th century that include combined anthropogenic and natural forcings are not able to reproduce such a pronounced seasonality of the trends. Our first hypothesis is that the warming of Californian winters over the second half of the twentieth century is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that are likely to be human-induced. This circulation change is underestimated in the historical simulations, which may explain why the simulated warming of Californian winters is too weak. We also hypothesize that the lack of a detectable observed increase in summertime maximum temperature arises from a cooling associated with large-scale irrigation. This cooling may have, until now, counteracted the warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases and urbanization effects. Omitting to include this forcing in the simulations can result in overestimating the summertime maximum temperature trends. We conduct an empirical study based on observed climate and irrigation changes to evaluate this assumption.

Three-dimensional constrained variational analysis: Approach and application to analysis of atmospheric diabatic heating and derivative fields during an ARM SGP intensive observational period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua

2015-08-01

Atmospheric vertical velocities and advective tendencies are essential large-scale forcing data to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), and large-eddy simulations (LESs). However, they cannot be directly measured from field measurements or easily calculated with great accuracy. In the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM), a constrained variational algorithm (1-D constrained variational analysis (1DCVA)) has been used to derive large-scale forcing data over a sounding network domain with the aid of flux measurements at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA). The 1DCVA algorithm is now extended into three dimensions (3DCVA) along with other improvements to calculate gridded large-scale forcing data, diabatic heating sources (Q1), and moisture sinks (Q2). Results are presented for a midlatitude cyclone case study on 3 March 2000 at the ARM Southern Great Plains site. These results are used to evaluate the diabatic heating fields in the available products such as Rapid Update Cycle, ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, and North American Regional Reanalysis. We show that although the analysis/reanalysis generally captures the atmospheric state of the cyclone, their biases in the derivative terms (Q1 and Q2) at regional scale of a few hundred kilometers are large and all analyses/reanalyses tend to underestimate the subgrid-scale upward transport of moist static energy in the lower troposphere. The 3DCVA-gridded large-scale forcing data are physically consistent with the spatial distribution of surface and TOA measurements of radiation, precipitation, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and clouds that are better suited to force SCMs, CRMs, and LESs. Possible applications of the 3DCVA are discussed.

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Held, Isaac M.; Leetmaa, Ants; Harrison, Matthew J.

2006-05-01

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

Is there a stratospheric pacemaker controlling the daily cycle of tropical rainfall?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakazaki, T.; Hamilton, K.; Zhang, C.; Wang, Y.

2017-02-01

Rainfall in the tropics exhibits a large, 12 h Sun-synchronous variation with coherent phase around the globe. A long-standing, but unproved, hypothesis for this phenomenon is excitation by the prominent 12 h atmospheric tide, which itself is significantly forced remotely by solar heating of the stratospheric ozone layer. We investigated the relative roles of large-scale tidal forcing and more local effects in accounting for the 12 h variation of tropical rainfall. A model of the atmosphere run with the diurnal cycle of solar heating artificially suppressed below the stratosphere still simulated a strong coherent 12 h rainfall variation ( 50% of control run), demonstrating that stratospherically forced atmospheric tide propagates downward to the troposphere and contributes to the organization of large-scale convection. The results have implications for theories of excitation of tropical atmospheric waves by moist convection, for the evaluation of climate models, and for explaining the recently discovered lunar tidal rainfall cycle.

Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Feng, Song; Pompeani, David P.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Finney, Bruce P.; Bird, Broxton W.

2014-01-01

Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-10-20

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Interactive Soil Dust Aerosol Model in the GISS GCM. Part 1; Sensitivity of the Soil Dust Cycle to Radiative Properties of Soil Dust Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, Jan; Tegen, Ina; Miller, Ron L.

2000-01-01

The sensitivity of the soil dust aerosol cycle to the radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols is studied. Four experiments with the NASA/GISS atmospheric general circulation model, which includes a soil dust aerosol model, are compared, all using a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature as lower boundary condition. In one experiment, dust is included as dynamic tracer only (without interacting with radiation), whereas dust interacts with radiation in the other simulations. Although the single scattering albedo of dust particles is prescribed to be globally uniform in the experiments with radiatively active dust, a different single scattering albedo is used in those experiments to estimate whether regional variations in dust optical properties, corresponding to variations in mineralogical composition among different source regions, are important for the soil dust cycle and the climate state. On a global scale, the radiative forcing by dust generally causes a reduction in the atmospheric dust load corresponding to a decreased dust source flux. That is, there is a negative feedback in the climate system due to the radiative effect of dust. The dust source flux and its changes were analyzed in more detail for the main dust source regions. This analysis shows that the reduction varies both with the season and with the single scattering albedo of the dust particles. By examining the correlation with the surface wind, it was found that the dust emission from the Saharan/Sahelian source region and from the Arabian peninsula, along with the sensitivity of the emission to the single scattering albedo of dust particles, are related to large scale circulation patterns, in particular to the trade winds during Northern Hemisphere winter and to the Indian monsoon circulation during summer. In the other regions, such relations to the large scale circulation were not found. There, the dependence of dust deflation to radiative forcing by dust particles is probably dominated by physical processes with short time scales. The experiments show that dust radiative forcing can lead to significant changes both in the soil dust cycle and in the climate state. To estimate dust concentration and radiative forcing by dust more accurately, dust size distributions and dust single scattering albedo in the model should be a function of the source region, because dust concentration and climate response to dust radiative forcing are sensitive to dust radiative parameters.

Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Stewart, R.; Wang, H.; Barlow, M.; Berbery, H.; Cai, W.; Hoerling, M.; Kanikicharla, K.; Koster, R.; Lyon, B.;

Analysis of the Effect of Interior Nudging on Temperature and Precipitation Distributions of Multi-year Regional Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T. L.; Bowden, J. H.; Otte, M. J.

2010-12-01

There is disagreement in the regional climate modeling community as to the appropriateness of the use of internal nudging. Some investigators argue that the regional model should be minimally constrained and allowed to respond to regional-scale forcing, while others have noted that in the absence of interior nudging, significant large-scale discrepancies develop between the regional model solution and the driving coarse-scale fields. These discrepancies lead to reduced confidence in the ability of regional climate models to dynamically downscale global climate model simulations under climate change scenarios, and detract from the usability of the regional simulations for impact assessments. The advantages and limitations of interior nudging schemes for regional climate modeling are investigated in this study. Multi-year simulations using the WRF model driven by reanalysis data over the continental United States at 36km resolution are conducted using spectral nudging, grid point nudging, and for a base case without interior nudging. The means, distributions, and inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation will be evaluated in comparison to regional analyses.

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

Land change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drummond, M.A.; Auch, Roger F.; Karstensen, K.A.; Sayler, K. L.; Taylor, Janis L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2012-01-01

Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is often hampered by change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur at the local-scale. To facilitate a regional-scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10 km × 10 km blocks is used to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time intervals between 1973 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Nearly 8% of the overall Great Plains region underwent land-use and land-cover change during the study period, with a substantial amount of ecoregion variability that ranged from less than 2% to greater than 13%. Agricultural land cover declined by more than 2% overall, with variability contingent on the differential characteristics of regional human–environment systems. A large part of the Great Plains is in relatively stable land cover. However, other land systems with significant biophysical and climate limitations for agriculture have high rates of land change when pushed by economic, policy, technology, or climate forcing factors. The results indicate the regionally based potential for land cover to persist or fluctuate as land uses are adapted to spatially and temporally variable forcing factors.

Science accomplishments report.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2003-01-01

Today, as in the past, complex forces of nature intersect with communities and society. Fire, climate change, invasive species, and large-scale shifts in forest cover and use are some of the key issues society currently faces. This accomplishment report encapsulates a year’s work from our scientists. This work is often interdisciplinary, long term, geographically broad...

Workshop on Spanning Regional-to-Global Pollution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne M.; Newman, Paul A.; Gleason, James F.; Brune, William H.; Dickerson, Russell R.

2002-01-01

Pollution is often considered a localized phenomenon, but it is now clear that it travels from region-to-region, country to country, and even continent to continent. In addition to urban pollution in developed countries, large emissions from developing nations and large-scale biomass fires add to the global pollution burden. Ozone and aerosols are two components of pollution that contribute to radiative forcing of the earth s climate. In turn, as climate changes, rates of chemical and microphysical reactions may be perturbed. Considering the earth as a coupled chemical-microphysical-climate system poses challenges for models and observations alike. These issues were the topic of a Workshop held in May 2002 at NASA GSFC s Laboratory for Atmospheres. Highlights of the Workshop are summarized in this article.

Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600-present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arfeuille, F.; Weisenstein, D.; Mack, H.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.; Brönnimann, S.

2014-02-01

As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600-present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600-present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

Testing the Millennial-Scale Holocene Solar-Climate Connection in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khider, D.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Jackson, C. S.; Routson, C.

2016-12-01

The existence of 1000 and 2500-year periodicities found in reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) and a number of Holocene climate records has led to the hypothesis of a causal relationship. However, attributing Holocene millennial-scale variability to solar forcing requires a mechanism by which small changes in total irradiance can influence a global climate response. One possible amplifier within the climate system is the ocean. If this is the case, then we need to know more about where and how this may be occurring. On the other hand, the similarity in spectral peaks could be merely coincidental, and this should be made apparent by a lack of coherence in how that power and phasing are distributed in time and space. The plausibility of the solar forcing hypothesis is assessed through a Bayesian model of the age uncertainties affecting marine sedimentary records that is propagated through spectral analysis of the climate and forcing signals at key frequencies. Preliminary work on Mg/Ca and alkenone records from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool suggests that despite large uncertainties in the location of the spectral peaks within each individual record arising from age model uncertainty, sea surface variability on timescales of 1025±36 years and 2427±133 years (±standard error of the mean of the median periodicity in each record) are present in at least 95% and 70% of the ensemble spectra, respectively. However, we find a long phase delay between the peak in forcing and the maximum response in at least one of the records, challenging the solar forcing hypothesis and requiring further investigation between low- and high-latitude signals. Remarkably, all records suggest a periodicity near 1470±85 years, reminiscent of the cycles characteristic of Marine Isotope Stage 3; these cycles are absent from existing records of TSI, further questioning the millennial solar-climate connection.

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assessing the Causal Components of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosnold, W. D.; Todhunter, P. E.; Dong, X.; Rundquist, B.; Majorowicz, J.; Blackwell, D. D.

2004-05-01

Separation of climate forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases from natural radiative climate forcing is difficult because the composite temperature signal in the meteorological and multi-proxy temperature records cannot be resolved directly into radiative forcing components. To address this problem, we have initiated a large-scale, multidisciplinary project to test coherence between ground surface temperatures (GST) reconstructed from borehole T-z profiles, surface air temperatures (SAT), soil temperatures, and solar radiation. Our hypothesis is that radiative heating and heat exchange between the ground and the air directly control the ground surface temperature. Consequently, borehole T-z measurements at multi-year intervals spanning time periods when solar radiation, soil and air temperatures have been recorded should enable comparison of the thermal energy stored in the ground to these quantities. If coherence between energy storage, solar radiation, GST, SAT and multi-proxy temperature data can be discerned for a one or two decade scale, synthesis of GST and multi-proxy data over the past several centuries may enable us to separately determine the anthropogenic and natural forcings of climate change. The data we are acquiring include: (1) New T-z measurements in boreholes previously used in paleoclimate and heat flow research in Canada and the United States from the 1970's to the present. (2) Meteorological data from the US Historical Climatology Network and the Automated Weather Data Network of the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and Environment Canada. (3) Direct and remotely sensed data on land use, environment, and soil properties at selected borehole and meteorological sites for the periods between borehole observations. The project addresses three related questions: What is the coherence between the GST, SAT, soil temperatures and solar radiation? Have microclimate changes at borehole sites and climate stations affected temperature trends? If good coherence is obtained, can the coherence between thermal energy stored in the ground and radiative forcing during the time between T-z measurements be extended several centuries into the past?

Mediterranean Thermohaline Response to Large-Scale Winter Atmospheric Forcing in a High-Resolution Ocean Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusinato, Eleonora; Zanchettin, Davide; Sannino, Gianmaria; Rubino, Angelo

2018-04-01

Large-scale circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean regions described by dominant climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the East Atlantic/Western Russian (EAWR) and the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), significantly affect interannual-to-decadal climatic and hydroclimatic variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region. However, whereas previous studies assessed the impact of such climate modes on air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea, the propagation of these atmospheric forcing signals from the surface toward the interior and the abyss of the Mediterranean Sea remains unexplored. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model simulation covering the 1979-2013 period to investigate spatial patterns and time scales of the Mediterranean thermohaline response to winter forcing from NAO, EA, EAWR and MOI. We find that these modes significantly imprint on the thermohaline properties in key areas of the Mediterranean Sea through a variety of mechanisms. Typically, density anomalies induced by all modes remain confined in the upper 600 m depth and remain significant for up to 18-24 months. One of the clearest propagation signals refers to the EA in the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas: There, negative EA anomalies are associated to an extensive positive density response, with anomalies that sink to the bottom of the South Adriatic Pit within a 2-year time. Other strong responses are the thermally driven responses to the EA in the Gulf of Lions and to the EAWR in the Aegean Sea. MOI and EAWR forcing of thermohaline properties in the Eastern Mediterranean sub-basins seems to be determined by reinforcement processes linked to the persistency of these modes in multiannual anomalous states. Our study also suggests that NAO, EA, EAWR and MOI could critically interfere with internal, deep and abyssal ocean dynamics and variability in the Mediterranean Sea.

Paleoclimatic change, disaster history and the urbanscape transitions in Athens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Liang

2017-04-01

Past abrupt climate changes on millennium time scales have received wide attention among natural and social scientists, also because of today's rapid climate changes and their extensive impacts on our society. In the eastern Mediterranean area, coherent patterns and synchronous events in history suggest obvious links between urban development and climate forcing. The city of Athens as the origin of ancient Greek civilization experienced many periods of prosperity and decay. Though the transitions were mostly dominated by wars and power changes between empires, severe climate events and natural disasters may also considerably have shaped the process of Athens' development. Among natural disasters, earthquake, tsunami, flood and wildfire were the main forces that stressed the development of Athens. To recover from and respond to these disaster impacts, the city was thereafter developed in ways that either changed the ever existed city patterns or guided sensitive areas to specific directions, which could have transformed the urbanscape gradually. However, the possibility that these transitions may have been responses/resilience strategies triggered by abrupt climate events has so far hardly been explored. With extensive literature review, existing archaeological records and paleoclimate reconstruction modelling results, this study analyzes the large scale climate variations, related environment changes in mesoscale, aiming at setting into context the local natural disasters in Athens and its surrounding areas during the Holocene period. The study treats a number of important climate events in the area and urban transitions of the city, of which the integration of all these elements and insights from recent analysis throw some new light on understanding the forcing-transition process. Preliminary results indicate unclear link of climate forcing and urban transition over the whole city, but a few signs of possible linkages were recognized at specific blocks of Athens. Along with the population growth and land sprawl, more areas and more sections of the city were becoming susceptible to climate events and increased consideration of disasters in their development. The findings have significance for our in-depth understanding of the ancient city construction and development, as well as for the future urban development in facing of global climate change. Keywords: Climate change, natural disasters, urban transition, Holocene, Athens

Precipitation event tracking reveals that precipitation characteristics respond differently under seasonal, interannual, and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.

Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.

PubMed

McJeon, Haewon; Edmonds, Jae; Bauer, Nico; Clarke, Leon; Fisher, Brian; Flannery, Brian P; Hilaire, Jérôme; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mi, Raymond; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo

2014-10-23

The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

Large Scale Eocene Ocean Circulation Transition Could Help Antarctic Glaciation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, M.

2016-12-01

The global climate underwent major changes going from the Eocene into the Oligocene, including the formation of a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet. In addition to a gradual drawdown of CO2 since the Early Eocene, the changing background geography of the earth may also have played a crucial role in setting the background oceanic circulation pattern favorable to ice growth. On the other hand, the ocean circulation may have changed only after the ice sheet started growing, with a similar climatic imprint. It is, therefore, still under debate what the primary forcing or trigger of this transition was. Using an ocean general circulation model (POP) and two different geography reconstruc-tions for the middle-late Eocene, we find two distinctly different patterns of the oceanic circulation to be possible under the same forcing. The first one features deep-water formation and warmer SSTs in the Southern Pacific while in the second, deep water forms in the North Pacific Ocean and Southern Ocean SSTs are colder. The presence of a double equilibrium shows that the ocean circulation was highly susceptible to large scale transitions during the middle-late Eocene. Additionally, changes in benthic oxygen and Neodymium isotopes depict significant changes during the same period. We suggest that a transition in the global meridional overturing circulation can explain the observed changes and preconditions the global climate for the two-step transition into an Icehouse state at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary.

Palaeoclimate dynamics : a voyage through scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crucifix, Michel; Mitsui, Takahito

2015-04-01

Our knowledge of climate dynamics depends on indirect observations of past climate evolution, as well as on what can be inferred from theoretical arguments. At the scale of the Cenozoic, it is common to define a framework of nested time scales, the longest time scale of interest being related to the slow tectonic evolution, then variability associated with or controlled by the astronomical forcing, and finally the fastest dynamics associated with the natural modes of variability of the ocean and the atmosphere. For example, in a model, the astronomical modes of variability may be simulated with deterministic equations under fixed boundary conditions representing the tectonic state, and associated with stochastic parameterisations of the ocean-atmosphere (chaotic) modes of motion. Bifurcations or, more generally, qualitative changes in climate dynamics may be scanned by changing slowly the tectonic state, in order to provide explanations to observed changes in regimes such as the appearance of ice ages and their changes in length or amplitude. The above framework, largely theorized by B. Saltzman, may still be partly justified but is in need of a review. We address here specifically three questions: To what extent astronomical variability interacts with natural modes of ocean - atmosphere variability ? Specifically, how does millennial variability (e.g.: Dansgaard-Oeschger events) fit the Saltzman scheme ? The astronomical forcing is quasi-periodic, and we recently showed that it may produce somewhat counter-intuitive dynamics associated with the emergence of strange non-chaotic attractors. What are the consequences on the spectrum of climate variability ? What are the effects of centennial climate variability on the slow variability of climate ? These three questions are addressed by reference to recently published material, with the objective of emphasising research questions to be explored in the near future.

Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

2012-12-01

Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo change, 2) an increase in CO2 concentrations that exactly balances the forcing from land use change at the global level, and 3) a simulation combining the first two effects, resulting in net zero global-mean forcing as would occur in an idealized carbon cap-and-trade scheme that accounts for the albedo effect of land use change. The pattern of land use change that we examine is derived from an integrated assessment model that accounts for population, demographic, technological, and policy changes over the 21st century. We find significant differences in the pattern of climate change associated with each of these forcing scenarios, demonstrating the non-additivity of radiative forcing from land-use change and greenhouse gases in the context of a hypothetical scenario of future land use change. These results have implications for the development of land use and climate policies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, William D; Johansen, Hans; Evans, Katherine J

We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to con- tribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enabling improved accuracy andmore » fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allow more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, part- nerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures, such as many-core processors and GPUs, so that these approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

Challenges in global modeling of wetland extent and wetland methane dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahni, R.; Melton, J. R.; Wania, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Zürcher, S.; Joos, F.

2012-12-01

Global wetlands are known to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. Modelling of global wetland extent and wetland CH4 dynamics remains a challenge. Here we present results from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) that investigated our present ability to simulate large scale wetland characteristics (e.g. wetland type, water table, carbon cycling, gas transport, etc.) and corresponding CH4 emissions. Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The WETCHIMP experiments showed that while models disagree in spatial and temporal patterns of simulated CH4 emissions and wetland areal extent, they all do agree on a strong positive response to increased carbon dioxide concentrations. WETCHIMP made clear that we currently lack observation data sets that are adequate to evaluate model CH4 soil-atmosphere fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells. Thus there are substantial parameter and structural uncertainties in large-scale CH4 emission models. As an illustration of the implications of CH4 emissions on climate we show results of the LPX-Bern model, as one of the models participating in WETCHIMP. LPX-Bern is forced with observed 20th century climate and climate output from an ensemble of five comprehensive climate models for a low and a high emission scenario till 2100 AD. In the high emission scenario increased substrate availability for methanogenesis due to a strong stimulation of net primary productivity, and faster soil turnover leads to an amplification of CH4 emissions with the sharpest increase in peatlands (+180% compared to present). Combined with prescribed anthropogenic CH4 emissions, simulated atmospheric CH4 concentration reaches ~4500 ppbv by 2100 AD, about 800 ppbv more than in standard IPCC scenarios. This represents a significant contribution to radiative forcing of global climate.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Considerations for interpreting probabilistic estimates of uncertainty of forest carbon

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

2000-01-01

Quantitative estimated of carbon inventories are needed as part of nationwide attempts to reduce net release of greenhouse gases and the associated climate forcing. Naturally, an appreciable amount of uncertainty is inherent in such large-scale assessments, especially since both science and policy issues are still evolving. Decision makers need an idea of the...

Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Jaya

More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of transition seasons, hence occurring in atmospheric conditions otherwise less conducive to thermal convection. Evidence of this phenomenon is found at two large scale deforested areas considered in this thesis. Hence, the 'dynamical' mechanism, which affects the seasons most important for regional ecology, emerges as an impactful convective triggering mechanism. The phenomenon studied in this thesis provides context for thinking about the climate of a future, more patchily forested Amazonia, by articulating relationships between climate and spatial scales of deforestation.

Use of NARCCAP data to characterize regional climate uncertainty in the impact of global climate change on large river fish population: Missouri River sturgeon example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C. J.; Wildhaber, M. L.; Wikle, C. K.; Moran, E. H.; Franz, K. J.; Dey, R.

2012-12-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the effects of change on ecosystems requires accounting for the propagation of information and uncertainty across these scales. For example, to understand potential climate change effects on fish populations in riverine ecosystems, climate conditions predicted by course-resolution atmosphere-ocean global climate models must first be translated to the regional climate scale. In turn, this regional information is used to force watershed models, which are used to force river condition models, which impact the population response. A critical challenge in such a multiscale modeling environment is to quantify sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and the individual organism. We use a hierarchical modeling approach for accommodating uncertainty in multiscale ecological impact studies. This framework allows for uncertainty due to system models, model parameter settings, and stochastic parameterizations. This approach is a hybrid between physical (deterministic) downscaling and statistical downscaling, recognizing that there is uncertainty in both. We use NARCCAP data to determine confidence the capability of climate models to simulate relevant processes and to quantify regional climate variability within the context of the hierarchical model of uncertainty quantification. By confidence, we mean the ability of the regional climate model to replicate observed mechanisms. We use the NCEP-driven simulations for this analysis. This provides a base from which regional change can be categorized as either a modification of previously observed mechanisms or emergence of new processes. The management implications for these categories of change are significantly different in that procedures to address impacts from existing processes may already be known and need adjustment; whereas, an emergent processes may require new management strategies. The results from hierarchical analysis of uncertainty are used to study the relative change in weights of the endangered Missouri River pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) under a 21st century climate scenario.

Cross-scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

DOE PAGES

Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Katul, Gabriel G.; ...

2015-08-07

While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1 h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Additionally, various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water andmore » carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.« less

Cross-scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Katul, Gabriel G.

While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1 h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Additionally, various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water andmore » carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.« less

[Research advances in dendrochronology].

PubMed

Fang, Ke-Yan; Chen, Qiu-Yan; Liu, Chang-Zhi; Cao, Chun-Fu; Chen, Ya-Jun; Zhou, Fei-Fei

2014-07-01

Tree-ring studies in China have achieved great advances since the 1990s, particularly for the dendroclimatological studies which have made some influence around the world. However, because of the uneven development, limited attention has been currently paid on the other branches of dendrochronology. We herein briefly compared the advances of dendrochronology in China and of the world and presented suggestions on future dendrochronological studies. Large-scale tree-ring based climate reconstructions in China are highly needed by employing mathematical methods and a high quality tree-ring network of the ring-width, density, stable isotope and wood anatomy. Tree-ring based field climate reconstructions provide potentials on explorations of climate forcings during the reconstructed periods via climate diagnosis and process simulation.

Shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector: The role of the atmospheric response to local SST changes vs. large-scale changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Greatbatch, Richard; Bader, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Climate change simulations robustly show a warming hole in the sub-polar North Atlantic that results from slowing of the AMOC countering the global warming signal. Here we investigate how the distinct SST spatial structures, which include a sharpening of the Gulf Stream SST gradients, influence climate change in the NA sector in winter. For this we analyse the RCP8.5 scenario simulation of the MPI Earth System Model. Additional sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric model component, ECHAM5, are performed to deconstruct the effect of the local spatial structure of the SST change from those arising from large-scale warming of the ocean, remote SST pattern changes and changed radiative forcings. The MPI model simulation shows a signifcant decrease in precipitation to the south of the GS extension region in the future, despite a strong increase in underlying SST. While directly to the north there is a significant increase in precipitation. These distinct features in the precipitation response over the North Atlantic result from the local SST. Over the Gulf Stream, the differential structure of the precipitation changes reflects the changes of the local SST gradients there. Over the subpolar gyre the increase in precipitation is partly suppressed. In this region the Subpolar Gyre the weakened AMOC causes a SST warming, that is much weaker than the warming other regions of the ocean show at the same latitude. The large-scale response, which includes the overall increase in precipitation over the NA is due to the overall warming, remote SSTs and/or directly connected to the radiative forcing.

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

PubMed

Koven, C D; Schuur, E A G; Schädel, C; Bohn, T J; Burke, E J; Chen, G; Chen, X; Ciais, P; Grosse, G; Harden, J W; Hayes, D J; Hugelius, G; Jafarov, E E; Krinner, G; Kuhry, P; Lawrence, D M; MacDougall, A H; Marchenko, S S; McGuire, A D; Natali, S M; Nicolsky, D J; Olefeldt, D; Peng, S; Romanovsky, V E; Schaefer, K M; Strauss, J; Treat, C C; Turetsky, M

2015-11-13

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C(-1) on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming. © 2015 The Authors.

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

PubMed Central

Koven, C. D.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Schädel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E. J.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J. W.; Hayes, D. J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, E. E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; MacDougall, A. H.; Marchenko, S. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Natali, S. M.; Nicolsky, D. J.; Olefeldt, D.; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Schaefer, K. M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C. C.; Turetsky, M.

2015-01-01

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C−1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming. PMID:26438276

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

DOE PAGES

Koven, C. D.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Schadel, C.; ...

2015-10-05

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soilmore » temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of –14 to –19 Pg C °C–1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. In conclusion, the simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.« less

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koven, C.D.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Schädel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E. J.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; MacDougall, A. H.; Marchenko, Sergey S.; McGuire, A. David; Natali, Susan M.; Nicolsky, D.J.; Olefeldt, David; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, Kevin M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C.C.; Turetsky, M.

2015-01-01

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C−1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated meteorology-air quality models that include aerosol direct and indirect effects. However in such multi-modeling systems, temperature changes due to nudging can compete with temperature changes induced by radiatively active & hygroscopic short-lived tracers leading to interesting dilemmas: From weather and climate prediction’s (retrospective or future) point of view when nudging is continuously applied, is there any real added benefit of using such complex and computationally expensive regional integrated modeling systems? What are the relative sizes of these two competing forces? To address these intriguing questions, we convert temperature changes due to nudging into radiative fluxes (referred to as the pseudo radiative forcing, PRF) at the surface and troposphere, and compare the net PRF with the reported aerosol radiative forcing. Results indicate that the PRF at surface dominates PRF at top of the atmosphere (i.e., the net). Also, the net PRF is about 2-4 times larger than estimated aerosol radiative forcing at regional scales while it is significantly larger at local scales. These results also show large surface forcing errors at many polluted urban sites. Thus, operational c

Are Atmospheric Updrafts a Key to Unlocking Climate Forcing and Sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-06-08

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations which do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of scale-dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

South American Monsoon variability during the past 2,000 years from stable isotopic proxies and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M.; Cruz, F. W.; Abbott, M.; Bird, B. W.; Burns, S. J.; Cheng, H.; Colose, C. M.; Kanner, L. C.; LeGrande, A. N.; Novello, V. F.; Taylor, B. L.

2012-12-01

The rapidly growing number of high-resolution stable isotopic proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments, located in the South American summer monsoon (SASM) belt, will soon allow for a comprehensive analysis of climate variability in the South American tropics and subtropics over the past ~ 2000 years. In combination with isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (GCMs) this offers new prospects for better understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of the South American monsoon system and for diagnosing its sensitivities to external forcing mechanisms (solar, volcanic) and modes of ocean-atmosphere variability (e.g. ENSO and AMO). In this presentation we will discuss the rationale for interpreting isotopic excursions recorded in various proxies from the Andes, northeastern and southeastern Brazil as indicative of changes in monsoon intensity. We will focus on the past 2 millenia when isotopic proxies from the SASM region show a very coherent behavior regardless of the type of archive or their location. All proxies exhibit significant decadal to multidecadal variability, superimposed on large excursions during three key periods, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative delta-18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000- year historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. One interpretation of these centennial-scale climate anomalies suggests that they were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the northern hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity and degree of rainout upstream of the proxy locations, over the tropical continent. This interpretation is supported by several independent proxy archives and modeling studies. One question that remains, however, is how ENSO, arguably the main forcing factor for delta-18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, interacts with and may be modulated by low-frequency North Atlantic forcing. Our analysis also implies that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, are complementary to more traditional proxies such as tree rings or historical archives, which record in-situ climate variations. Future climate reconstructions therefore should make an effort to include isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

A study on large-scale nudging effects in regional climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yhang, Yoo-Bin; Hong, Song-You

2011-05-01

The large-scale nudging effects on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are examined using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The NCEP/DOE reanalysis data is used to provide large-scale forcings for RSM simulations, configured with an approximately 50-km grid over East Asia, centered on the Korean peninsula. The RSM with a variant of spectral nudging, that is, the scale selective bias correction (SSBC), is forced by perfect boundary conditions during the summers (June-July-August) from 1979 to 2004. The two summers of 2000 and 2004 are investigated to demonstrate the impact of SSBC on precipitation in detail. It is found that the effect of SSBC on the simulated seasonal precipitation is in general neutral without a discernible advantage. Although errors in large-scale circulation for both 2000 and 2004 are reduced by using the SSBC method, the impact on simulated precipitation is found to be negative in 2000 and positive in 2004 summers. One possible reason for a different effect is that precipitation in the summer of 2004 is characterized by a strong baroclinicity, while precipitation in 2000 is caused by thermodynamic instability. The reduction of convective rainfall over the oceans by the application of the SSBC method seems to play an important role in modeled atmosphere.

Characterization of cookstove emissions from various stoves, fuels, and cycles; intervention pathways and implications for climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeCarlo, P. F.; Jetter, J.; Khan, B.; Zhao, Y.; Yelverton, T.; Hays, M. D.

2011-12-01

Nearly half of the world's population relies on inefficient open fire or rudimentary cookstoves to prepare their food. Combustion of biomass or other fuels results in not only high indoor air pollution, but is also a large source of climate forcing species such as black and organic carbon species to the earth's atmosphere. Large-scale intervention programs are now underway to replace inefficient cooking methods with newer technologies. These intervention programs have as a goal the improvement of indoor air pollution and reduction of negative climate impacts. To characterize the current available alternatives, a major cookstove testing program was conducted at the US EPA. This presentation will focus on the characterization of the emission measurements for a variety of different cookstoves, fuels and cooking cycles. The work will focus on the aerosol optical properties measured with a PASS-3, and the climate impacts of various intervention pathways will be discussed.

Optimal Sunshade Configurations for Space-Based Geoengineering near the Sun-Earth L1 Point.

PubMed

Sánchez, Joan-Pau; McInnes, Colin R

2015-01-01

Within the context of anthropogenic climate change, but also considering the Earth's natural climate variability, this paper explores the speculative possibility of large-scale active control of the Earth's radiative forcing. In particular, the paper revisits the concept of deploying a large sunshade or occulting disk at a static position near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange equilibrium point. Among the solar radiation management methods that have been proposed thus far, space-based concepts are generally seen as the least timely, albeit also as one of the most efficient. Large occulting structures could potentially offset all of the global mean temperature increase due to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates optimal configurations of orbiting occulting disks that not only offset a global temperature increase, but also mitigate regional differences such as latitudinal and seasonal difference of monthly mean temperature. A globally resolved energy balance model is used to provide insights into the coupling between the motion of the occulting disks and the Earth's climate. This allows us to revise previous studies, but also, for the first time, to search for families of orbits that improve the efficiency of occulting disks at offsetting climate change on both global and regional scales. Although natural orbits exist near the L1 equilibrium point, their period does not match that required for geoengineering purposes, thus forced orbits were designed that require small changes to the disk attitude in order to control its motion. Finally, configurations of two occulting disks are presented which provide the same shading area as previously published studies, but achieve reductions of residual latitudinal and seasonal temperature changes.

Optimal Sunshade Configurations for Space-Based Geoengineering near the Sun-Earth L1 Point

PubMed Central

Sánchez, Joan-Pau; McInnes, Colin R.

2015-01-01

Within the context of anthropogenic climate change, but also considering the Earth’s natural climate variability, this paper explores the speculative possibility of large-scale active control of the Earth’s radiative forcing. In particular, the paper revisits the concept of deploying a large sunshade or occulting disk at a static position near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange equilibrium point. Among the solar radiation management methods that have been proposed thus far, space-based concepts are generally seen as the least timely, albeit also as one of the most efficient. Large occulting structures could potentially offset all of the global mean temperature increase due to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates optimal configurations of orbiting occulting disks that not only offset a global temperature increase, but also mitigate regional differences such as latitudinal and seasonal difference of monthly mean temperature. A globally resolved energy balance model is used to provide insights into the coupling between the motion of the occulting disks and the Earth’s climate. This allows us to revise previous studies, but also, for the first time, to search for families of orbits that improve the efficiency of occulting disks at offsetting climate change on both global and regional scales. Although natural orbits exist near the L1 equilibrium point, their period does not match that required for geoengineering purposes, thus forced orbits were designed that require small changes to the disk attitude in order to control its motion. Finally, configurations of two occulting disks are presented which provide the same shading area as previously published studies, but achieve reductions of residual latitudinal and seasonal temperature changes. PMID:26309047

Varying Influence of Different Forcings on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohtadi, M.; Huang, E.; Hollstein, M.; Chen, Y.; Schefuß, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Prange, M.; Oppo, D.; Liu, J.; Steinke, S.; Martinez-Mendez, G.; Tian, J.; Moffa-Sanchez, P.; Lückge, A.

2017-12-01

Proxy records of rainfall in marine archives from the eastern and western parts of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) vary at precessional band and suggest a dominant role of orbital forcing by modulating monsoon rainfall and the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Rainfall changes recorded in marine archives from the northern South China Sea reveal a more complex history. They are largely consistent with those recorded in the Chinese cave speleothems during glacial periods, but show opposite changes during interglacial peaks that coincide with strong Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. During glacial periods, the establishment of massive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the exposure of broad continental shelves in East and Southeast Asia alter the large-scale routes and amounts of water vapor transport onto land relative to interglacials. Precipitation over China during glacials varies at precessional band and is dominated by water vapor transport from the nearby tropical and northwest Pacific, resulting in consistent changes in precipitation over large areas. In the absence of ice forcing during peak interglacials with a strong summer insolation, the low-level southerly monsoonal winds mainly of the Indian Ocean origin penetrate further landward and rainout along their path over China. Subsurface temperatures from the IPWP lack changes on glacial-interglacial timescales but follow the obliquity cycle, and suggest that obliquity-paced climate variations at mid-latitudes remotely control subsurface temperatures in the IPWP. Temperature and rainfall in the IPWP respond primarily to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic on millennial timescales, and to ENSO and solar forcing on interannual to decadal timescales. In summary, results from marine records reveal that the IPWP climate is sensitive to changes in spatial and temporal distribution of heat by many types of forcing, the influence of which seems to vary in time and space.

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: A Scientific Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond, Tami C.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Fahey, D. W.

2013-06-06

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. Predominant sources are combustion related; namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that ismore » quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption, influence on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice clouds, and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models, and should be increased by about about 60%. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of black carbon is +0.43 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.17, +0.68) W m-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources in the present day is estimated as +0.49 (+0.20, +0.76) W m-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings and their rapid responses and feedbacks. The best estimate of industrial-era (1750 to 2005) climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms is +0.77 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +-0.06 to +1.53 W m-2. Thus, there is a 96% probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. With a value of +0.77 W m-2, black carbon is likely the second most important individual climate-forcing agent in the industrial era, following carbon dioxide. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short- lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of co- emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil-fuel and biofuel) have a net climate forcing of +0.004 (-0.62 to +0.57) W m-2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all black- carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (-0.08 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of -1.23 to +0.81 W m-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.« less

New Insights on Hydro-Climate Feedback Processes over the Tropical Ocean from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Li, Xiaofan; Sui, C. H.

2002-01-01

In this paper, we study hydro-climate feedback processes over the tropical oceans, by examining the relationships among large scale circulation and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager-Sea Surface Temperature (TMI-SST), and a range of TRMM rain products including rain rate, cloud liquid water, precipitable water, cloud types and areal coverage, and precipitation efficiency. Results show that for a warm event (1998), the 28C threshold of convective precipitation is quite well defined over the tropical oceans. However, for a cold event (1999), the SST threshold is less well defined, especially over the central and eastern Pacific cold tongue, where stratiform rain occurs at much lower than 28 C. Precipitation rates and cloud liquid water are found to be more closely related to the large scale vertical motion than to the underlying SST. While total columnar water vapor is more strongly dependent on SST. For a large domain, over the eastern Pacific, we find that the areal extent of the cloudy region tends to shrink as the SST increases. Examination of the relationship between cloud liquid water and rain rate suggests that the residence time of cloud liquid water tends to be shorter, associated with higher precipitation efficiency in a warmer climate. It is hypothesized that the reduction in cloudy area may be influenced both by the shift in large scale cloud patterns in response to changes in large scale forcings, and possible increase in the cloud liquid water conversion to rain water in a warmer environment. Results of numerical experiments with the Goddard cloud resolving model to test the hypothesis will be discussed.

Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persad, Geeta Gayatri

Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols' surface versus atmospheric forcing. Future aerosol emissions patterns will affect the distribution of regional climate impacts. This dissertation interrogates how international trade affects existing assumptions about East Asia's future black carbon aerosol emissions, using integrated assessment modeling, emissions and economic data, and AM3 simulations. Exports emerge as a uniquely large and potentially growing source of Chinese black carbon emissions that could impede projected regional emissions reductions, with substantial climate and health consequences. The findings encourage greater emissions projection sophistication and illustrate how societal decisions may influence future aerosol forcing heterogeneity.

The effects of atmospheric cloud radiative forcing on climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, David A.

1989-01-01

In order to isolate the effects of atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) on climate, the general circulation of an ocean-covered earth called 'Seaworld' was simulated using the Colorado State University GCM. Most current climate models, however, do not include an interactive ocean. The key simplifications in 'Seaworld' are the fixed boundary temperature with no land points, the lack of mountains and the zonal uniformity of the boundary conditions. Two 90-day 'perpetual July' simulations were performed and analyzed the last sixty days of each. The first run included all the model's physical parameterizations, while the second omitted the effects of clouds in both the solar and terrestrial radiation parameterizations. Fixed and identical boundary temperatures were set for the two runs, and resulted in differences revealing the direct and indirect effects of the ACRF on the large-scale circulation and the parameterized hydrologic processes.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Expanded spatial extent of the Medieval Climate Anomaly revealed in lake-sediment records across the boreal region in northwest Ontario.

PubMed

Laird, Kathleen R; Haig, Heather A; Ma, Susan; Kingsbury, Melanie V; Brown, Thomas A; Lewis, C F Michael; Oglesby, Robert J; Cumming, Brian F

2012-09-01

Multi-decadal to centennial-scale shifts in effective moisture over the past two millennia are inferred from sedimentary records from six lakes spanning a ~250 km region in northwest Ontario. This is the first regional application of a technique developed to reconstruct drought from drainage lakes (open lakes with surface outlets). This regional network of proxy drought records is based on individual within-lake calibration models developed using diatom assemblages collected from surface sediments across a water-depth gradient. Analysis of diatom assemblages from sediment cores collected close to the near-shore ecological boundary between benthic and planktonic diatom taxa indicated this boundary shifted over time in all lakes. These shifts are largely dependent on climate-driven influences, and can provide a sensitive record of past drought. Our lake-sediment records indicate two periods of synchronous signals, suggesting a common large-scale climate forcing. The first is a period of prolonged aridity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, c. 900-1400 CE). Documentation of aridity across this region expands the known spatial extent of the MCA megadrought into a region that historically has not experienced extreme droughts such as those in central and western north America. The second synchronous period is the recent signal of the past ~100 years, which indicates a change to higher effective moisture that may be related to anthropogenic forcing on climate. This approach has the potential to fill regional gaps, where many previous paleo-lake depth methods (based on deeper centrally located cores) were relatively insensitive. By filling regional gaps, a better understanding of past spatial patterns in drought can be used to assess the sensitivity and realism of climate model projections of future climate change. This type of data is especially important for validating high spatial resolution, regional climate models. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeGrande, Allegra N.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Volcanic eruptions represent some of the most climatically important and societally disruptive short-term events in human history. Large eruptions inject ash, dust, sulfurous gases (e.g. SO2, H2S), halogens (e.g. Hcl and Hbr), and water vapor into the Earth's atmosphere. Sulfurous emissions principally interact with the climate by converting into sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming solar radiation, warming the stratosphere and altering ozone creation, reducing global mean surface temperature, and suppressing the hydrological cycle. In this issue, we focus on the history, processes, and consequences of these large eruptions that inject enough material into the stratosphere to significantly affect the climate system. In terms of the changes wrought on the energy balance of the Earth System, these transient events can temporarily have a radiative forcing magnitude larger than the range of solar, greenhouse gas, and land use variability over the last millennium. In simulations as well as modern and paleoclimate observations, volcanic eruptions cause large inter-annual to decadal-scale changes in climate. Active debates persist concerning their role in longer-term (multi-decadal to centennial) modification of the Earth System, however.

Drought change in the middle reach of the Yellow River since the late Ming Dynasty and their correlation with runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, F.

2017-12-01

Because of the reported decreasing trends in precipitation and streamflow in north-central China (Starting point of Ancient Silk Road), it is essential to understand long-term in water resource availability in this area. Thus, this research presents a new February-August PDSI reconstruction spanning CE 1615-2013 for the southern edge of the Gobi Desert under a highly variable arid and semi-arid climate in northern China. In addition to this new PDSI reconstruction, some previously published annual precipitation/PDSI reconstructions from the neighbouring regions were also used to infer the large-scale hydro-climatic signal of the middle reach of the Yellow River. Spatial correlation analyses with gridded precipitation data showed that the tree-ring records were indeed able to capture much of the regional interannual hydro-climatic signal variability. Using principal component analyses on the reconstructions and documentary records, many large-scale dry and flood events were found during the period AD 1615-2006. Many of these dry events have had profound impacts on the people of the study area over the past several centuries. Temporal correlations among the reconstruction and climatic indices, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, demonstrate that water availability is influenced by tropical and high-latitude forcings in the Pacific rim. Continued work in this direction should enable us to understand better the hydrological change under global warming and the past climate variability of the silk road over long temporal and large spatial scales.

Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tréguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Répécaud, Michel; Quéméner, Loic

2014-11-01

There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations.

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2011-01-01

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Groundwater Variability in a Sandstone Catchment and Linkages with Large-scale Climatic Circulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Bradley, C.

2015-12-01

Groundwater is a crucial water resource that sustains river ecosystems and provides public water supply. Furthermore, during periods of prolonged high rainfall, groundwater-dominated catchments can be subject to protracted flooding. Climate change and associated projected increases in the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes have implications for groundwater levels. This study builds on previous research undertaken on a Chalk catchment by investigating groundwater variability in a UK sandstone catchment: the Tern in Shropshire. In contrast to the Chalk, sandstone is characterised by a more lagged response to precipitation inputs; and, as such, it is important to determine the groundwater behaviour and its links with the large-scale climatic circulation to improve process understanding of recharge, groundwater level and river flow responses to hydroclimatological drivers. Precipitation, river discharge and groundwater levels for borehole sites in the Tern basin over 1974-2010 are analysed as the target variables; and we use monthly gridded reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). First, groundwater variability is evaluated and associations with precipitation / discharge are explored using monthly concurrent and lagged correlation analyses. Second, gridded 20CR reanalysis data are used in composite and correlation analyses to identify the regions of strongest climate-groundwater association. Results show that reasonably strong climate-groundwater connections exist in the Tern basin, with a several months lag. These lags are associated primarily with the time taken for recharge waters to percolate through to the groundwater table. The uncovered patterns improve knowledge of large-scale climate forcing of groundwater variability and may provide a basis to inform seasonal prediction of groundwater levels, which would be useful for strategic water resource planning.

Large-scale Agroecosytem's Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events in the Missouri River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, F.; Smith, K.; Corzo, G.; Chacon, J.; Carrillo-Cruz, C.

2015-12-01

A major challenge for water, energy and food security relies on the capability of agroecosyststems and ecosystems to adapt to a changing climate and land use changes. The interdependency of these forcings, understood through our ability to monitor and model processes across scales, indicate the "depth" of their impact on agroecosystems and ecosystems, and consequently our ability to predict the system's ability to return to a "normal" state. We are particularly interested in explore two questions: (1) how hydrometeorological and climate extreme events (HCEs) affect sub-seasonal to interannual changes in evapotranspiration and soil moisture? And (2) how agroecosystems recover from the effect of such events. To address those questions we use the land surface hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer-Leaf Area Index (MODIS-LAI) over two time spans (1950-2013 using a seasonal fixed LAI cycle) and 2001-2013 (an 8-day MODIS-LAI). VIC is forced by daily/16th degree resolution precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, and wind speed. In this large-scale experiment, resiliency is defined by the capacity of a particular agroecosystem, represented by a grid cell's ET, SM, and LAI to return to a historical average. This broad, yet simplistic definition will contribute to identify the possible components and their scales involved in agroecosystems and ecosystems capacity to adapt to the incidence of HCEs and technologies used to intensify agriculture and diversify their use for food and energy production. Preliminary results show that dynamical changes in land use, tracked by MODIS data, require larger time spans to address properly the influence of technologic improvements in crop production as well as the competition for land for biofuel vs. food production. On the other hand, fixed seasonal changes in land use allow us just to identify hydrologic changes mainly due to climate variability.

Regional Climate Modeling of Volcanic Eruptions and the Arctic Climate System: A Baffin Island Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losic, M.; Robock, A.

2010-12-01

It is well-understood that the effects of volcanic aerosol loading into the stratosphere are transient, with global cooling lasting only a few years after a single large eruption. Geological evidence collected from Northern Baffin Island, Canada, suggests ice cap growth began soon after a succession of several large eruptions in the 13th century, and they did not start to melt until roughly a century ago. We investigate which feedbacks allowed these ice caps to be maintained long after the transient forcing of the volcanic aerosols, by conducting sensitivity studies with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Polar WRF, a version of WRF developed specifically for the polar regions. Results from an ensemble of month-long regional simulations over Baffin Island suggest that better treatment of snow and ice in Polar WRF improves our regional climate simulations. Thus, sensitivity test results from decade-long runs with imposed changes to boundary condition temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations using Polar WRF are presented. Preliminary findings suggest that not only large scale but localized climate feedbacks play an important role in the responses of the ice caps after temperature and carbon dioxide forcings are applied. The results from these and further sensitivity tests will provide insight into the influence of regional feedbacks on the persistence of these ice caps long after the 13th century eruptions.

Low order climate models as a tool for cross-disciplinary collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, R.; Pfirman, S. L.; Tremblay, B.; Schlosser, P.

2014-12-01

Human impacts on climate are pervasive and significant and project future states cannot be projected without taking human influence into account. We recently helped convene a meeting of climatologists, policy analysts, lawyers and social scientists to discuss the dramatic loss in Arctic summer sea ice. A dialogue emerged around distinct time scales in the integrated human/natural climate system. Climate scientists tended to discuss engineering solutions as though they could be implemented immediately, whereas lags of 2 or more decades were estimated by social scientists for societal shifts and similar lags were cited for deployment by the engineers. Social scientists tended to project new climate states virtually overnight, while climatologists described time scales of decades to centuries for the system to respond to changes in forcing functions. For the conversation to develop, the group had to come to grips with an increasingly complex set of transient effect time scales and lags between decisions, changes in forcing, and system outputs. We use several low-order dynamical system models to explore mismatched timescales, ranges of lags, and uncertainty in cost estimates on climate outcomes, focusing on Arctic-specific issues. In addition to lessons regarding what is/isn't feasible from a policy and engineering perspective, these models provide a useful tool to concretize cross-disciplinary thinking. They are fast and easy to iterate through a large region of the problem space, while including surprising complexity in their evolution. Thus they are appropriate for investigating the implications of policy in an efficient, but not unrealistic physical setting. (Earth System Models, by contrast, can be too resource- and time-intensive for iteratively testing "what if" scenarios in cross-disciplinary collaborations.) Our runs indicate, for example, that the combined social, engineering and climate physics lags make it extremely unlikely that an ice-free summer ecology in the Arctic can be avoided. Further, if prospective remediation strategies are successful, a return to perennial ice conditions between one and two centuries from now is entirely likely, with interesting and large impacts on Northern economies.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, T. C.; Doherty, S. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Forster, P. M.; Berntsen, T.; DeAngelo, B. J.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; Kärcher, B.; Koch, D.; Kinne, S.; Kondo, Y.; Quinn, P. K.; Sarofim, M. C.; Schultz, M. G.; Schulz, M.; Venkataraman, C.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, S.; Bellouin, N.; Guttikunda, S. K.; Hopke, P. K.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Kaiser, J. W.; Klimont, Z.; Lohmann, U.; Schwarz, J. P.; Shindell, D.; Storelvmo, T.; Warren, S. G.; Zender, C. S.

2013-06-01

carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (-0.50 to +1.08) W m-2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (-0.06 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of -1.45 to +1.29 W m-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bond, T. C.; Doherty, S. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Forster, P. M.; Bernsten, T.; DeAngelo, B. J.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; Karcher, B.; Koch, D.;

Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A

2005-11-29

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.

A strategy for representing the effects of convective momentum transport in multiscale models: Evaluation using a new superparameterized version of the Weather Research and Forecast model (SP-WRF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulich, S. N.

2015-06-01

This paper describes a general method for the treatment of convective momentum transport (CMT) in large-scale dynamical solvers that use a cyclic, two-dimensional (2-D) cloud-resolving model (CRM) as a "superparameterization" of convective-system-scale processes. The approach is similar in concept to traditional parameterizations of CMT, but with the distinction that both the scalar transport and diagnostic pressure gradient force are calculated using information provided by the 2-D CRM. No assumptions are therefore made concerning the role of convection-induced pressure gradient forces in producing up or down-gradient CMT. The proposed method is evaluated using a new superparameterized version of the Weather Research and Forecast model (SP-WRF) that is described herein for the first time. Results show that the net effect of the formulation is to modestly reduce the overall strength of the large-scale circulation, via "cumulus friction." This statement holds true for idealized simulations of two types of mesoscale convective systems, a squall line, and a tropical cyclone, in addition to real-world global simulations of seasonal (1 June to 31 August) climate. In the case of the latter, inclusion of the formulation is found to improve the depiction of key synoptic modes of tropical wave variability, in addition to some aspects of the simulated time-mean climate. The choice of CRM orientation is also found to importantly affect the simulated time-mean climate, apparently due to changes in the explicit representation of wide-spread shallow convective regions.

Long-term energy and climate implications of carbon capture and storage deployment strategies in the US coal-fired electricity fleet.

PubMed

Sathre, Roger; Masanet, Eric

2012-09-04

To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.

Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Wilson, Rob; Briffa, Keith R.; Büntgen, Ulf; Cook, Edward R.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Davi, Nicole; Esper, Jan; Frank, David; Gunnarson, Björn E.; Hegerl, Gabi; Helama, Samuli; Klesse, Stefan; Krusic, Paul J.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Myglan, Vladimir; Osborn, Timothy J.; Zhang, Peng; Rydval, Milos; Schneider, Lea; Schurer, Andrew; Wiles, Greg; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-05-01

Climate field reconstructions from networks of tree-ring proxy data can be used to characterize regional-scale climate changes, reveal spatial anomaly patterns associated with atmospheric circulation changes, radiative forcing, and large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, and provide spatiotemporal targets for climate model comparison and evaluation. Here we use a multiproxy network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct spatially resolved warm season (May-August) mean temperatures across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (40-90°N) using Point-by-Point Regression (PPR). The resulting annual maps of temperature anomalies (750-1988 CE) reveal a consistent imprint of volcanism, with 96% of reconstructed grid points experiencing colder conditions following eruptions. Solar influences are detected at the bicentennial (de Vries) frequency, although at other time scales the influence of insolation variability is weak. Approximately 90% of reconstructed grid points show warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly when compared to the Little Ice Age, although the magnitude varies spatially across the hemisphere. Estimates of field reconstruction skill through time and over space can guide future temporal extension and spatial expansion of the proxy network.

Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation over Llobregat river basin in Catalonia (Spain) using three downscaling methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballinas, R.; Versini, P.-A.; Sempere, D.; Escaler, I.

2009-09-01

Any long-term change in the patterns of average weather in a global or regional scale is called climate change. It may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological parameters may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc. Recent studies in Catalonia foresee changes in hydrological systems caused by climate change. This will lead to alterations in the hydrological cycle that could impact in land use, in the regimen of water extractions, in the hydrological characteristics of the territory and reduced groundwater recharge. Besides, can expect a loss of flow in rivers. In addition to possible increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall, being necessary to modify the design of infrastructure. Because this, it work focuses on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia, the Llobregat River Basin. The basin is the hub of the province of Barcelona. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, as drinking water production, agricultural irrigation, industry and hydro-electrical energy production. In consequence, many companies and communities depend on these resources. To study the impact of climate change in the Llobregat basin, storms (frequency, intensity) mainly, we will need regional climate change information. A regional climate is determined by interactions at large, regional and local scales. The general circulation models (GCMs) are run at too coarse resolution to permit accurate description of these regional and local interactions. So far, they have been unable to provide consistent estimates of climate change on a local scale. Several regionalization techniques have been developed to bridge the gap between the large-scale information provided by GCMs and fine spatial scales required for regional and environmental impact studies. Downscaling methods to assess the effect of large-scale circulations on local parameters have. Statistical downscaling methods are based on the view that regional climate can be conditioned by two factors: large-scale climatic state and regional/local features. Local climate information is derived by first developing a statistical model which relates large-scale variables or "predictors" for which GCMs are trustable to regional or local surface "predictands" for which models are less skilful. The main advantage of these methods is that they are computationally inexpensive, and can be applied to outputs from different GCM experiments. Three statistical downscaling methods are applied: Analogue method, Delta Change and Direct Forcing. These methods have been used to determine daily precipitation projections at rain gauge location to study the intensity, frequency and variability of storms in a context of climate change in the Llobregat River Basin in Catalonia, Spain. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program). It deals with Medium and long term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Two stakeholders involved in the project provided the historical time series: Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).

Evaluation of large-eddy simulations forced with mesoscale model output for a multi-week period during a measurement campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinze, Rieke; Moseley, Christopher; Böske, Lennart Nils; Muppa, Shravan Kumar; Maurer, Vera; Raasch, Siegfried; Stevens, Bjorn

2017-06-01

Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of a multi-week period during the HD(CP)2 (High-Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction) Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) conducted in Germany are evaluated with respect to mean boundary layer quantities and turbulence statistics. Two LES models are used in a semi-idealized setup through forcing with mesoscale model output to account for the synoptic-scale conditions. Evaluation is performed based on the HOPE observations. The mean boundary layer characteristics like the boundary layer depth are in a principal agreement with observations. Simulating shallow-cumulus layers in agreement with the measurements poses a challenge for both LES models. Variance profiles agree satisfactorily with lidar measurements. The results depend on how the forcing data stemming from mesoscale model output are constructed. The mean boundary layer characteristics become less sensitive if the averaging domain for the forcing is large enough to filter out mesoscale fluctuations.

Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

Signal to noise quantification of regional climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2016-12-01

One of the biggest challenges in interpreting climate model outputs for impacts studies and adaptation planning is understanding the sources of disagreement among models (which is often used imperfectly as a stand-in for system uncertainty). Internal variability is a primary source of uncertainty in climate projections, especially for precipitation, for which models disagree about even the sign of changes in large areas like the continental US. Taking advantage of a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate simulations, this study quantifies the magnitude of changes forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations relative to internal variability. Results come from a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate model simulations generated by weather@home, a citizen science computing platform, where the western United States climate was simulated for the recent past (1985-2014) and future (2030-2059) using a 25-km horizontal resolution regional climate model (HadRM3P) nested in global atmospheric model (HadAM3P). We quantify grid point level signal-to-noise not just in temperature and precipitation responses, but also the energy and moisture flux terms that are related to temperature and precipitation responses, to provide important insights regarding uncertainty in climate change projections at local and regional scales. These results will aid modelers in determining appropriate ensemble sizes for different climate variables and help users of climate model output with interpreting climate model projections.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1996-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

Assessment of the terrestrial water balance using the global water availability and use model WaterGAP - status and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller Schmied, Hannes; Döll, Petra

2017-04-01

The estimation of the World's water resources has a long tradition and numerous methods for quantification exists. The resulting numbers vary significantly, leaving room for improvement. Since some decades, global hydrological models (GHMs) are being used for large scale water budget assessments. GHMs are designed to represent the macro-scale hydrological processes and many of those models include human water management, e.g. irrigation or reservoir operation, making them currently the first choice for global scale assessments of the terrestrial water balance within the Anthropocene. The Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) is a model framework that comprises both the natural and human water dimension and is in development and application since the 1990s. In recent years, efforts were made to assess the sensitivity of water balance components to alternative climate forcing input data and, e.g., how this sensitivity is affected by WaterGAP's calibration scheme. This presentation shows the current best estimate of terrestrial water balance components as simulated with WaterGAP by 1) assessing global and continental water balance components for the climate period 1971-2000 and the IPCC reference period 1986-2005 for the most current WaterGAP version using a homogenized climate forcing data, 2) investigating variations of water balance components for a number of state-of-the-art climate forcing data and 3) discussing the benefit of the calibration approach for a better observation-data constrained global water budget. For the most current WaterGAP version 2.2b and a homogenized combination of the two WATCH Forcing Datasets, global scale (excluding Antarctica and Greenland) river discharge into oceans and inland sinks (Q) is assessed to be 40 000 km3 yr-1 for 1971-2000 and 39 200 km3 yr-1 for 1986-2005. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is close to each other with around 70 600 (70 700) km3 yr-1 as well as water consumption with 1000 (1100) km3 yr-1. The main reason for differing Q is varying precipitation (P, 111 600 km3 yr-1 vs. 110 900 km3 yr-1). The sensitivity of water balance components to alternative climate forcing data is high. Applying 5 state-of-the-art climate forcing data sets, long term average P differs globally by 8000 km3 yr-1, mainly due to different handling of precipitation undercatch correction (or neglecting it). AET differs by 5500 km3 yr-1 whereas Q varies by 3000 km3 yr-1. The sensitivity of human water consumption to alternative climate input data is only about 5%. WaterGAP's calibration approach forces simulated long-term river discharge to be approximately equal to observed values at 1319 gauging stations during the time period selected for calibration. This scheme greatly reduces the impact of uncertain climate input on simulated Q data in these upstream drainage basins (as well as downstream). In calibration areas, the Q variation among the climate input data is much lower (1.6%) than in non-calibrated areas (18.5%). However, variation of Q at the grid cell-level is still high (an average of 37% for Q in grid cells in calibration areas vs. 74% outside). Due to the closed water balance, variation of AET is higher in calibrated areas than in non-calibrated areas. Main challenges in assessing the world's water resources by GHMs like WaterGAP are 1) the need of consistent long-term climate forcing input data sets, especial considering a suitable handling of P undercatch, 2) the accessibility of in-situ data for river discharge or alternative calibration data for currently non-calibrated areas, and 3) an improved simulation in semi-arid and arid river basins. As an outlook, a multi-model, multi-forcing study of global water balance components within the frame of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project is proposed.

Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions

PubMed Central

Georgescu, Matei; Morefield, Philip E.; Bierwagen, Britta G.; Weaver, Christopher P.

2014-01-01

Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1–2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions. PMID:24516126

Integrated approaches to climate–crop modelling: needs and challenges

PubMed Central

A. Betts, Richard

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate–vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate–chemistry–crop–hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models. PMID:16433093

A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M.; Burns, S. J.; Taylor, B. L.; Cruz, F. W.; Bird, B. W.; Abbott, M. B.; Kanner, L. C.; Cheng, H.; Novello, V. F.

2012-08-01

We review the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) over the past ~2000 yr based on high-resolution stable isotope proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments. Our review is complemented by an analysis of an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the past 130 yr. Proxy records from the monsoon belt in the tropical Andes and SE Brazil show a very coherent behavior over the past 2 millennia with significant decadal to multidecadal variability superimposed on large excursions during three key periods: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warm period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM's mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative δ18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand, the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000-yr historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. Our climatic interpretation of these archives is consistent with our isotope-based GCM analysis, which suggests that these sites are sensitive recorders of large-scale monsoon variations. We hypothesize that these centennial-scale climate anomalies were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity (amount of rainfall upstream over the Amazon Basin). This interpretation is supported by several independent records from different proxy archives and modeling studies. Although ENSO is the main forcing for δ18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, our results suggest that its influence may be significantly modulated by North Atlantic climate variability on longer time scales. Finally, our analyses indicate that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, could complement more traditional proxies such as tree rings or documentary evidence. Future climate reconstruction efforts could potentially benefit from including isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

How do glacier inventory data aid global glacier assessments and projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hock, R.

2017-12-01

Large-scale glacier modeling relies heavily on datasets that are collected by many individuals across the globe, but managed and maintained in a coordinated fashion by international data centers. The Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) provides the framework for coordinating and making available a suite of data sets such as the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI), the Glacier Thickness Dataset or the World Glacier Inventory (WGI). These datasets have greatly increased our ability to assess global-scale glacier mass changes. These data have also been vital for projecting the glacier mass changes of all mountain glaciers in the world outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet, a total >200,000 glaciers covering an area of more than 700,000 km2. Using forcing from 8 to 15 GCMs and 4 different emission scenarios, global-scale glacier evolution models project multi-model mean net mass losses of all glaciers between 7 cm and 24 cm sea-level equivalent by the end of the 21st century. Projected mass losses vary greatly depending on the choice of the forcing climate and emission scenario. Insufficiently constrained model parameters likely are an important reason for large differences found among these studies even when forced by the same emission scenario, especially on regional scales.

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

2018-01-01

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

Analysis and numerical study of inertia-gravity waves generated by convection in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evan, Stephanie

2011-12-01

Gravity waves transport momentum and energy upward from the troposphere and by dissipation affect the large-scale structure of the middle atmosphere. An accurate representation of these waves in climate models is important for climate studies, but is still a challenge for most global and climate models. In the tropics, several studies have shown that mesoscale gravity waves and intermediate scale inertia-gravity waves play an important role in the dynamics of the upper atmosphere. Despite observational evidence for the importance of forcing of the tropical circulation by inertia-gravity waves, their exact properties and forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation are not fully understood. In this thesis, properties of tropical inertia-gravity waves are investigated using radiosonde data from the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) dataset and high-resolution numerical experiments. Few studies have characterized inertia-gravity wave properties using radiosonde profiles collected on a campaign basis. We first examine the properties of intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves observed during the 2006 TWP-ICE campaign in Australia. We show that the total vertical flux of horizontal momentum associated with the waves is of the same order of magnitude as previous observations of Kelvin waves. This constitutes evidence for the importance of the forcing of the tropical circulation by intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves. Then, we focus on the representation of inertia-gravity waves in analysis data. The wave event observed during TWP-ICE is also present in the ECMWF data. A comparison between the characteristics of the inertia-gravity wave derived with the ECMWF data to the properties of the wave derived with the radiosonde data shows that the ECMWF data capture similar structure for this wave event but with a larger vertical wavelength. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system is used to understand the representation of the wave event in the ECMWF data. The model is configured as a tropical channel with a high top at 1 hPa. WRF is used with the same horizontal resolution (˜ 40 km) as the operational ECMWF in 2006 while using a finer vertical grid-spacing than ECMWF. Different experiments are performed to determine the sensitivity of the wave structure to cumulus schemes, initial conditions and vertical resolution. We demonstrate that high vertical resolution would be required for ECMWF to accurately resolve the vertical structure of inertia-gravity waves and their effect on the middle atmosphere circulation. Lastly we perform WRF simulations in January 2006 and 2007 to assess gravity wave forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation. In these simulations a large part of the gravity wave spectrum is explicitly simulated. The WRF model is able to reproduce the evolution of the mean tropical stratospheric zonal wind when compared to observational data and the ECMWF reanalysis. It is shown that gravity waves account for 60% up to 80% of the total wave forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation. We also compute wave forcing associated with intermediate-scale inertiagravity waves. In the WRF simulations this wave type represents ˜ 30% of the total gravity wave forcing. This suggests that intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves can play an important role in the tropical middle-atmospheric circulation. In addition, the WRF high-resolution simulations are used to provide some guidance for constraining gravity wave parameterizations in coarse-grid climate models.

Physical and human dimensions of deforestation in Amazonia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skole, D.L.; Chomentowski, W.H.; Salas W.A.

1994-05-01

In the Brazilian Amazon, regional trends are influenced by large scale external forces but mediated by local conditions. Tropical deforestation has a large influence on global hydrology, climate and biogeochemical cycles, but understanding is inadequate because of a lack of accurate measurements of rate, geographic extent and spatial patterns and lack of insight into its causes including interrelated social, economic and environmental factors. This article proposes an interdisciplinary approach for analyzing tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The first part shows how deforestation can be measured from satellite remote sensing and sociodemographic and economic data. The second part proposes anmore » explanatory model, considering the relationship among deforestation and large scale social, economic, and institutional factors. 43 refs., 8 figs.« less

Seasonal change of topology and resilience of ecological networks in wetlandscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin, Kim; Park, Jeryang

2017-04-01

Wetlands distributed in a landscape provide various ecosystem services including habitat for flora and fauna, hydrologic controls, and biogeochemical processes. Hydrologic regime of each wetland at a given landscape varies by hydro-climatic and geological conditions as well as the bathymetry, forming a certain pattern in the wetland area distribution and spatial organization. However, its large-scale pattern also changes over time as this wetland complex is subject to stochastic hydro-climatic forcing in various temporal scales. Consequently, temporal variation in the spatial structure of wetlands inevitably affects the dispersal ability of species depending on those wetlands as habitat. Here, we numerically show (1) the spatiotemporal variation of wetlandscapes by forcing seasonally changing stochastic rainfall and (2) the corresponding ecological networks which either deterministically or stochastically forming the dispersal ranges. We selected four vernal pool regions with distinct climate conditions in California. The results indicate that the spatial structure of wetlands in a landscape by measuring the wetland area frequency distribution changes by seasonal hydro-climatic condition but eventually recovers to the initial state. However, the corresponding ecological networks, which the structure and function change by the change of distances between wetlands, and measured by degree distribution and network efficiency, may not recover to the initial state especially in the regions with high seasonal dryness index. Moreover, we observed that the changes in both the spatial structure of wetlands in a landscape and the corresponding ecological networks exhibit hysteresis over seasons. Our analysis indicates that the hydrologic and ecological resilience of a wetlandcape may be low in a dry region with seasonal hydro-climatic forcing. Implications of these results for modelling ecological networks depending on hydrologic systems especially for conservation purposes are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations which do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of scale-dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Milankovitch Modulation of the Ecosystem Dynamics of Fossil Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteside, J. H.; Olsen, P. E.; Eglinton, T. I.; Cornet, B.; Huber, P.; McDonald, N. G.

2008-12-01

Triassic and Early Jurassic lacustrine deposits of eastern North American rift basins preserve a spectacular record of precession-related Milankovitch forcing in the Pangean tropics. The abundant and well-preserved fossil fish assemblages from these great lakes demonstrate a sequence of cyclical changes that track the permeating hierarchy of climatic cycles. To detail ecosystem processes correlating with succession of fish communities, we measured bulk δ13Corg through a 100 ky series of Early Jurassic climatic precession-forced lake level cycles in the lower Shuttle Meadow Formation of the Hartford rift basin, CT. The deep-water phase of one of these cycles, the Bluff Head bed, has produced thousands of articulated fish. We observe fluctuations in the bulk δ13Corg of the cyclical strata that reflect differing degrees of lake water stratification, nutrient levels, and relative proportion of algal vs. plant derived organic matter that trace fish community changes. We can exclude extrinsic changes in the global exchangeable reservoirs as an origin of this variability because molecule-level δ13C of n-alkanes of plant leaf waxes from the same strata show no such variability. While at higher taxonomic levels the fish communities responded largely by sorting of taxa by environmental forcing, at the species level the holostean genus Semionotus responded by in situ evolution, and ultimately extinction, of a species flock. Fluctuations at the higher frequency, climatic precessional scale are mirrored at lower frequency, eccentricity modulated, scales, all following the lake-level hierarchical pattern. Thus, lacustrine isotopic ratios amplify the Milankovitch climate signal that was already intensified by sequelae of the end-Triassic extinctions. The degree to which the ecological structure of modern lakes responds to similar environmental cyclicity is largely unknown, but we suspect similar patterns and processes within the Neogene history of the East African great lakes, which may be modified in the future by anthropogenic CO2-driven intensification of the hydrological cycle.

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

Are We Telling Decision-makers the Wrong Things - and with Too Much Confidence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, J.; Nowak, K. C.; Vano, J. A.; Newman, A. J.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Nijssen, B.; Wood, A.; Gutmann, E. D.; Clark, M. P.; Rasmussen, R.

2016-12-01

Water-resource management relies on decision-making over a wide range of space-time scales, nearly none of which maps cleanly onto the scales of current hydroclimatic scenarios of anthropogenic change. Myriad choices are made during vulnerability and impact assessments to quantify the changed-climate sensitivities of models used in that decision-making, including choices of hydrologic models, parameters, and parameterizations; their input forcings determined with various climate downscaling approaches; selected GCMs and output variables to be downscaled; and the forcing emissions scenarios, to name a few. Choosing alternative methods for producing gridded meteorological fields, for examples, can produce very different effects on the projected hydrologic outcomes they drive, with uncertainties across those methods revealed to be as large or larger than the climate change signal itself in some cases. Additionally, many popular climate downscaling methods simply rescale GCM precipitation, producing hydroclimatic projections with too much drizzle, incorrect representations of extreme events, and improper spatial scaling of variables crucial to water-resource vulnerability assessments and, importantly, the decisions they seek to inform. Real-world water-resource vulnerability and impacts assessments can be highly time-sensitive and resource limited, though, so they typically do not confront or even fully represent uncertainties associated with all choices. That deficiency results in assessments built on only partially revealed uncertainties which can misrepresent significant sensitivities and impacts in the final assessments of climate threats and hydrologic vulnerabilities. This talk will describe recent work by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, University of Washington, and National Center for Atmospheric Research to develop and test methods to characterize more fully the uncertainties in the modeling chain for real-world uses. Examples will illustrate new implementations for communicating that fuller characterization in the ways most useful to inform water-resource management across multiple space-time scales under climate-changed futures.

Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 Artist Concept

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-09-23

An artist concept of the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 Earth satellite. The Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 is an Earth satellite designed to make observations of ocean topography for investigations into sea-level rise and the relationship between ocean circulation and climate change. The satellite also provides data on the forces behind such large-scale climate phenomena as El Niño and La Niña. The mission is a follow-on to the French-American Jason 1 mission, which began collecting data on sea-surface levels in 1992. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA18158

Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg

2007-03-26

We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than themore » difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.« less

The significance of cloud-radiative forcing to the general circulation on climate time scales - A satellite interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sohn, Byung-Ju; Smith, Eric A.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the role of cloud- and surface-atmosphere forcing on the net radiation balance and their potential impact on the general circulation at climate time scales. The globally averaged cloud-forcing estimates and cloud sensitivity values taken from various recent studies are summarized. It is shown that the net radiative heating over the tropics is principally due to high clouds, while the net cooling in mid- and high latitudes is dominated by low and middle clouds.

Vegetation and climate variability in East Asia driven by low-latitude oceanic forcing during the middle to late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Jaesoo; Fujiki, Toshiyuki

2011-09-01

At centennial to millennial timescales, little is known of C 3 and C 4 plant productivity's responses to past regional climate changes and the dominant forcing factors during the Holocene, although large-scale changes in glacial-interglacial periods have been attributed to changes in aridity, temperature, and CO 2 concentration. We investigated the δ 13C of TOC, C/N ratios, and pollen in samples from a wetland on Jeju Island, Korea. The bulk isotopic signal ranging from -17‰ to -29‰ was partitioned into C 3 and C 4 plant signals by using a binary mixing model and calculating separate organic carbon-accumulation rates for C 3 and C 4 plants (OCAR 3 and OCAR 4) during the last 6500 years. Pollen data indicated that the temperate deciduous broadleaved trees replaced grassland dominated by Artemisia, dry-tolerant grass, and further expanded in the maar. The long-term decreasing trend of Artemisia-dominated grassland was similar to those of δ 13C values and OCAR 4. The multi-centennial to millennial variability superimposed on the gradual increasing trend of OCAR 3 was inversely correlated with those of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, suggesting that C 3 plants have stronger sensitivity to regional climate change driven by oceanic forcing. Our data suggest that vegetation changes in a coastal area in East Asia were affected by monsoonal changes coupled with SST in WTP and ENSO activity. The vegetation change on Jeju Island varied quite differently from change in the westerly pathway, suggesting only a weak influence from high-latitude-driven atmospheric circulation changes. We conclude that centennial- to millennial-scale climate changes in coastal regions of East Asia during the mid- to late-Holocene may have been mainly controlled by low-latitudinal oceanic forcing, including forcing by SST and ENSO activity.

Continental-Scale Temperature Reconstructions from the PAGES 2k Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, D. S.

2012-12-01

We present a major new synthesis of seven regional temperature reconstructions to elucidate the global pattern of variations and their association with climate-forcing mechanisms over the past two millennia. To coordinate the integration of new and existing data of all proxy types, the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project developed the 2k Network. It comprises nine working groups representing eight continental-scale regions and the oceans. The PAGES 2k Consortium, authoring this paper, presently includes 79 representatives from 25 countries. For this synthesis, each of the PAGES 2k working groups identified the proxy climate records for reconstructing past temperature and associated uncertainty using the data and methodologies that they deemed most appropriate for their region. The datasets are from 973 sites where tree rings, pollen, corals, lake and marine sediment, glacier ice, speleothems, and historical documents record changes in biologically and physically mediated processes that are sensitive to temperature change, among other climatic factors. The proxy records used for this synthesis are available through the NOAA World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. On long time scales, the temperature reconstructions display similarities among regions, and a large part of this common behavior can be explained by known climate forcings. Reconstructed temperatures in all regions show an overall long-term cooling trend until around 1900 C.E., followed by strong warming during the 20th century. On the multi-decadal time scale, we assessed the variability among the temperature reconstructions using principal component (PC) analysis of the standardized decadal mean temperatures over the period of overlap among the reconstructions (1200 to 1980 C.E.). PC1 explains 35% of the total variability and is strongly correlated with temperature reconstructions from the four Northern Hemisphere regions, and with the sum of external forcings including solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gases. PC2 captures 18% of the variability and is correlated most strongly with the Southern Hemisphere regions of Australasia and South America. PC3 captures 15% of the variability in the temperature reconstructions with a predominant loading from Antarctica. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades (10th percentiles) in each region were analyzed and compared with climate forcings. Only 22% of the regionally coldest decades can be ascribed to extreme minima in solar forcing, and 17% to volcanic forcing. The association between extremely warm regional temperatures and solar maxima is weaker than for cold temperatures and their corresponding solar minima. Spatially, volcanic forcing moderately increased the frequency of extremely cold decades in the Northern Hemisphere reconstructions, but had no significant effect in the Southern Hemisphere. Solar and volcanic impacts do not induce globally consistent decadal temperature shifts, but they increase the probability of cooling or warming at the continental scale. The majority of cold and warm decades identified here cannot be explained by changes in the records of volcanic activity or solar forcing. This indicates that at this timescale, prior to the anthropogenic buildup of greenhouse gases, unforced internal variability in the coupled ocean/atmosphere system was the dominant control on temperature variation.

The influence of large-scale wind power on global climate.

PubMed

Keith, David W; Decarolis, Joseph F; Denkenberger, David C; Lenschow, Donald H; Malyshev, Sergey L; Pacala, Stephen; Rasch, Philip J

2004-11-16

Large-scale use of wind power can alter local and global climate by extracting kinetic energy and altering turbulent transport in the atmospheric boundary layer. We report climate-model simulations that address the possible climatic impacts of wind power at regional to global scales by using two general circulation models and several parameterizations of the interaction of wind turbines with the boundary layer. We find that very large amounts of wind power can produce nonnegligible climatic change at continental scales. Although large-scale effects are observed, wind power has a negligible effect on global-mean surface temperature, and it would deliver enormous global benefits by reducing emissions of CO(2) and air pollutants. Our results may enable a comparison between the climate impacts due to wind power and the reduction in climatic impacts achieved by the substitution of wind for fossil fuels.

The radiative heating response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maycock, Amanda

2016-04-01

The structure and magnitude of radiative heating rates in the atmosphere can change markedly in response to climate forcings; diagnosing the causes of these changes can aid in understanding parts of the large-scale circulation response to climate change. This study separates the relative drivers of projected changes in longwave and shortwave radiative heating rates over the 21st century into contributions from radiatively active gases, such as carbon dioxide, ozone and water vapour, and from changes in atmospheric and surface temperatures. Results are shown using novel radiative diagnostics applied to timeslice experiments from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model; these online estimates are compared to offline radiative transfer calculations. Line-by-line calculations showing spectrally-resolved changes in heating rates due to different gases will also be presented.

Response of the Baltic and North Seas to river runoff from the Baltic watershed - Physical and biological changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänninen, Jari; Vuorinen, Ilppo; Rajasilta, Marjut; Reid, Philip C.

2015-11-01

Selected Baltic Sea watershed River Runoff (BSRR) events during 1970-2000 were used as predictor in Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLIMMIX) for evidence of simultaneous changes/chain of events (including possible time lags) in some chemical, physical and biological variables in the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems. Our aim was to explore for climatic-based explanation for ecological regime shifts that were documented semi-simultaneously in both ecosystems. Certain similarities were identified in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea salinity, oxygen concentration, temperature and phyto- and zooplankton parameters. These findings suggest that BSRR events which originate in the Baltic Sea catchment area modify and contribute to large scale ecosystem changes not only in the Baltic Sea, but also in the adjacent parts of the North Sea. However, the Baltic Sea inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities of physical and biological parameters are driven by direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a relatively short lag. In contrast, such changes in the North Sea are influenced by both local and direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a longer lag than in the Baltic, and a more regional, indirect forcing from changes in the North Atlantic. We suggest that this interactive system partially is behind large scale ecosystem regime shifts found in both Seas. During our study period two such shifts have been identified independently from us in a study earlier in the Southern and Central Baltic in 1980s and 1990s and a later one in 2001/2002 in the North Sea. As a post hoc test we compared the 0+ year class strength of the North Sea herring with BSRR intensity, and found evidence for higher herring production in high BSRR periods, which further corroborates the idea of a remote effect from the large watershed area of the Baltic. Regime shifts as well as their semi-synchronous appearance in two neighbouring sea areas could be identified. GLIMMIX models provide opportunities for determining and understanding the mechanisms behind marine ecosystem long-term and large-scale changes. Many studies have shown the importance of climatic factors (identified by the air pressure index, North Atlantic Oscillation) to the physical and biological changes over the North Atlantic. Our study enlarges the areal and temporal scope of these observations, and provides further support and explanation for climate as the pacemaker for marine ecological changes.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Harder, Jerry

2014-05-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R. F.; Rind, D. H.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J. W.; Krivova, N.

2014-12-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

Do radiative feedbacks depend on the structure and type of climate forcing, or only on the spatial pattern of surface temperature change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugstad, A.; Battisti, D. S.; Armour, K.

2016-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity depends critically on the strength of radiative feedbacks linking surface warming to changes in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation. Many studies use a simplistic idea of radiative feedbacks, either by treating them as global mean quantities, or by assuming they can be defined uniquely by geographic location and thus that TOA radiative response depends only on local surface warming. For example, a uniform increase in sea-surface temperature has been widely used as a surrogate for global warming (e.g., Cess et al 1990 and the CMIP 'aqua4k' simulations), with the assumption that this produces the same radiative feedbacks as those arising from a doubling of carbon dioxide - even though the spatial patterns of warming differ. However, evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, and local feedbacks may be integrally dependent on the structure of warming or type of climate forcing applied (Rose et al 2014). This study thus investigates the following questions: to what extent do local feedbacks depend on the structure and type of forcing applied? And, to what extent do they depend on the pattern of surface temperature change induced by that forcing? Using an idealized framework of an aquaplanet atmosphere-only model, we show that radiative feedbacks are indeed dependent on the large scale structure of warming and type of forcing applied. For example, the climate responds very differently to two forcings of equal global magnitude but applied in different global regions; the pattern of local feedbacks arising from uniform warming are not the same as that arising from polar amplified warming; and the same local feedbacks can be induced by distinct forcing patterns, provided that they produce the same pattern of surface temperature change. These findings suggest that the so-called `efficacies' of climate forcings can be understood simply in terms of how local feedbacks depend on the temperature patterns they induce.

The Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Xi, C.; Lall, U.; Rahill-Marier, B.

2013-12-01

Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (upto 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. A clear understanding of the space-time rainfall patterns for events or for a season will enable in assessing the spatial distribution of areas likely to have a high/low inundation potential for each type of rainfall forcing. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances. We also investigate the connection of persistent rainfall events at different latitudinal bands to large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO. Finally, we present the scaling phenomena of contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. This can be used for spatially distributed flood risk assessment conditional on a particular rainfall scenario. Statistical models for spatio-temporal loss simulation including model uncertainty to support regional and portfolio analysis can be developed.

Impact of oceanic-scale interactions on the seasonal modulation of ocean dynamics by the atmosphere.

PubMed

Sasaki, Hideharu; Klein, Patrice; Qiu, Bo; Sasai, Yoshikazu

2014-12-15

Ocean eddies (with a size of 100-300 km), ubiquitous in satellite observations, are known to represent about 80% of the total ocean kinetic energy. Recent studies have pointed out the unexpected role of smaller oceanic structures (with 1-50 km scales) in generating and sustaining these eddies. The interpretation proposed so far invokes the internal instability resulting from the large-scale interaction between upper and interior oceanic layers. Here we show, using a new high-resolution simulation of the realistic North Pacific Ocean, that ocean eddies are instead sustained by a different process that involves small-scale mixed-layer instabilities set up by large-scale atmospheric forcing in winter. This leads to a seasonal evolution of the eddy kinetic energy in a very large part of this ocean, with an amplitude varying by a factor almost equal to 2. Perspectives in terms of the impacts on climate dynamics and future satellite observational systems are briefly discussed.

Impact of oceanic-scale interactions on the seasonal modulation of ocean dynamics by the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Sasaki, Hideharu; Klein, Patrice; Qiu, Bo; Sasai, Yoshikazu

2014-01-01

Ocean eddies (with a size of 100–300 km), ubiquitous in satellite observations, are known to represent about 80% of the total ocean kinetic energy. Recent studies have pointed out the unexpected role of smaller oceanic structures (with 1–50 km scales) in generating and sustaining these eddies. The interpretation proposed so far invokes the internal instability resulting from the large-scale interaction between upper and interior oceanic layers. Here we show, using a new high-resolution simulation of the realistic North Pacific Ocean, that ocean eddies are instead sustained by a different process that involves small-scale mixed-layer instabilities set up by large-scale atmospheric forcing in winter. This leads to a seasonal evolution of the eddy kinetic energy in a very large part of this ocean, with an amplitude varying by a factor almost equal to 2. Perspectives in terms of the impacts on climate dynamics and future satellite observational systems are briefly discussed. PMID:25501039

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cerovecki, Ivana; McClean, Julie; Koracin, Darko

2014-11-14

The overall objective of this study was to improve the representation of regional ocean circulation in the North Pacific by using high resolution atmospheric forcing that accurately represents mesoscale processes in ocean-atmosphere regional (North Pacific) model configuration. The goal was to assess the importance of accurate representation of mesoscale processes in the atmosphere and the ocean on large scale circulation. This is an important question, as mesoscale processes in the atmosphere which are resolved by the high resolution mesoscale atmospheric models such as Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are absent in commonly used atmospheric forcing such as CORE forcing, employedmore » in e.g. the Community Climate System Model (CCSM).« less

Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, F.; Joos, F.; Raible, C. C.; Mignot, J.; Born, A.; Keller, K. M.; Stocker, T. F.

2015-02-01

Under the protocols of the Paleoclimate and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects a number of simulations were produced that provide a range of potential climate evolutions from the last millennium to the end of the current century. Here, we present the first simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes an interactive carbon cycle, that continuously covers the last millennium, the historical period, and the twenty-first century. Besides state-of-the-art forcing reconstructions, we apply a modified reconstruction of total solar irradiance to shed light on the issue of forcing uncertainty in the context of the last millennium. Nevertheless, we find that structural uncertainties between different models can still dominate over forcing uncertainty for quantities such as hemispheric temperatures or the land and ocean carbon cycle response. Comparing with other model simulations we find forced decadal-scale variability to occur mainly after volcanic eruptions, while during other periods internal variability masks potentially forced signals and calls for larger ensembles in paleoclimate modeling studies. At the same time, we fail to attribute millennial temperature trends to orbital forcing, as has been suggested recently. The climate-carbon cycle sensitivity in CESM during the last millennium is estimated to be about 1.3 ppm °C-1. However, the dependence of this sensitivity on the exact time period and scale illustrates the prevailing challenge of deriving robust constrains on this quantity from paleoclimate proxies. In particular, the response of the land carbon cycle to volcanic forcing shows fundamental differences between different models. In CESM the tropical land dictates the response to volcanoes with a distinct behavior for large and moderate eruptions. Under anthropogenic emissions, global land and ocean carbon uptake rates emerge from the envelope of interannual natural variability as simulated for the last millennium by about year 1947 and 1877, respectively.

The Impact Snow Albedo Feedback over Mountain Regions as Examined through High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Experiments over the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letcher, Theodore

As the climate warms, the snow albedo feedback (SAF) will play a substantial role in shaping the climate response of mid-latitude mountain regions with transient snow cover. One such region is the Rocky Mountains of the western United States where large snow packs accumulate during the winter and persist throughout the spring. In this dissertation, the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) configured as a regional climate model is used to investigate the role of the SAF in determining the regional climate response to forced anthropogenic climate change. The regional effects of climate change are investigated by using the pseudo global warming (PGW) framework, which is an experimental configuration in a which a mean climate perturbation is added to the boundary forcing of a regional model, thus preserving the large-scale circulation entering the region through the model boundaries and isolating the mesoscale climate response. Using this framework, the impact of the SAF on the regional energetics and atmospheric dynamics is examined and quantified. Linear feedback analysis is used to quantify the strength of the SAF over the Headwaters region of the Colorado Rockies for a series of high-resolution PGW experiments. This technique is used to test sensitivity of the feedback strength to model resolution and land surface model. Over the Colorado Rockies, and integrated over the entire spring season, the SAF strength is largely insensitive to model resolution, however there are more substantial differences on the sub-seasonal (monthly) timescale. In contrast, the SAF strength over this region is very sensitive to choice of land surface model. These simulations are also used to investigate how spatial and diurnal variability in warming caused by the SAF influences the dynamics of thermally driven mountain-breeze circulations. It is shown that, the SAF causes stronger daytime mountain-breeze circulations by increasing the warming on the mountains slopes thus enhancing the thermal contrast between the mountain slopes and the surrounding lowlands which drives these wind systems. This analysis is extended to investigate the impacts that the SAF has on the large-scale mountain-plain circulation that develops east of the Rockies over the Great Plains. To help isolate the SAF, a more idealized regional climate experiment which isolates the SAF is performed. It was found that SAF may influence thermally driven atmospheric dynamics up-to 200km east of the Mountains where the SAF originates, suggesting broader regional impacts of the SAF which may not be well resolved by coarser resolution global climate models. The implications of these changes on pollution transport and moist convection are also explored using these simulations.

Inter-decadal variability of phytoplankton biomass along the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula.

PubMed

Kim, Hyewon; Ducklow, Hugh W; Abele, Doris; Ruiz Barlett, Eduardo M; Buma, Anita G J; Meredith, Michael P; Rozema, Patrick D; Schofield, Oscar M; Venables, Hugh J; Schloss, Irene R

2018-06-28

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a climatically sensitive region where periods of strong warming have caused significant changes in the marine ecosystem and food-web processes. Tight coupling between phytoplankton and higher trophic levels implies that the coastal WAP is a bottom-up controlled system, where changes in phytoplankton dynamics may largely impact other food-web components. Here, we analysed the inter-decadal time series of year-round chlorophyll- a (Chl) collected from three stations along the coastal WAP: Carlini Station at Potter Cove (PC) on King George Island, Palmer Station on Anvers Island and Rothera Station on Adelaide Island. There were trends towards increased phytoplankton biomass at Carlini Station (PC) and Palmer Station, while phytoplankton biomass declined significantly at Rothera Station over the studied period. The impacts of two relevant climate modes to the WAP, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, on winter and spring phytoplankton biomass appear to be different among the three sampling stations, suggesting an important role of local-scale forcing than large-scale forcing on phytoplankton dynamics at each station. The inter-annual variability of seasonal bloom progression derived from considering all three stations together captured ecologically meaningful, seasonally co-occurring bloom patterns which were primarily constrained by water-column stability strength. Our findings highlight a coupled link between phytoplankton and physical and climate dynamics along the coastal WAP, which may improve our understanding of overall WAP food-web responses to climate change and variability.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

2017-04-01

The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

Global warming and ocean stratification: A potential result of large extraterrestrial impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Manoj; von Glasow, Roland; Smith, Robin S.; Paxton, Charles G. M.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Loptson, Claire; Markwick, Paul

2017-04-01

The prevailing paradigm for the climatic effects of large asteroid or comet impacts is a reduction in sunlight and significant short-term cooling caused by atmospheric aerosol loading. Here we show, using global climate model experiments, that the large increases in stratospheric water vapor that can occur upon impact with the ocean cause radiative forcings of over +20 W m-2 in the case of 10 km sized bolides. The result of such a positive forcing is rapid climatic warming, increased upper ocean stratification, and potentially disruption of upper ocean ecosystems. Since two thirds of the world's surface is ocean, we suggest that some bolide impacts may actually warm climate overall. For impacts producing both stratospheric water vapor and aerosol loading, radiative forcing by water vapor can reduce or even cancel out aerosol-induced cooling, potentially causing 1-2 decades of increased temperatures in both the upper ocean and on the land surface. Such a response, which depends on the ratio of aerosol to water vapor radiative forcing, is distinct from many previous scenarios for the climatic effects of large bolide impacts, which mostly account for cooling from aerosol loading. Finally, we discuss how water vapor forcing from bolide impacts may have contributed to two well-known phenomena: extinction across the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary and the deglaciation of the Neoproterozoic snowball Earth.

Baroclinic Adjustment of the Eddy-Driven Jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novak, Lenka; Ambaum, Maarten H. P.; Harvey, Ben J.

2017-04-01

The prediction of poleward shift in the midlatitude eddy-driven jets due to anthropogenic climate change is now a robust feature of climate models, but the magnitude of this shift or the processes responsible for it are less certain. This uncertainty comes from the complex response in storm tracks to large-scale forcing and their nonlinear modulation of the jet. This study uses global circulation models to reveal a relationship between eddy growth rate (referred to as baroclinicity) and eddy activity, whereby baroclinicity responds most rapidly to an eddy-dissipating forcing whereas eddy activity responds most rapidly to a baroclinicity-replenishing forcing. This nonlinearity can be generally explained using a two-dimensional dynamical system essentially describing the baroclinic adjustment as a predator-prey relationship. Despite this nonlinearity, the barotropic changes in the eddy-driven jet appear to be of a comparable magnitude for the ranges of both types of forcing tested in this study. It is implied that while changes in eddy activity or baroclinicity may indicate the sign of latitudinal jet shifting, the precise magnitude of this shifting is a result of a balance between these two quantities.

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback: The PCN Incubation-Panarctic Thermal (PInc-PanTher) Scaling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Schuur, E.; Schaedel, C.; Bohn, T. J.; Burke, E.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J. W.; Hayes, D. J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, E. E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; MacDougall, A.; Marchenko, S. S.; McGuire, A. D.; Natali, S.; Nicolsky, D.; Olefeldt, D.; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Schaefer, K. M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C. C.; Turetsky, M. R.

2015-12-01

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a 3-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100.

A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Jared; Bodeker, Greg E.; Kremser, Stefanie; Tait, Andrew

2017-12-01

A method, based on climate pattern scaling, has been developed to expand a small number of projections of fields of a selected climate variable (X) into an ensemble that encapsulates a wide range of indicative model structural uncertainties. The method described in this paper is referred to as the Ensemble Projections Incorporating Climate model uncertainty (EPIC) method. Each ensemble member is constructed by adding contributions from (1) a climatology derived from observations that represents the time-invariant part of the signal; (2) a contribution from forced changes in X, where those changes can be statistically related to changes in global mean surface temperature (Tglobal); and (3) a contribution from unforced variability that is generated by a stochastic weather generator. The patterns of unforced variability are also allowed to respond to changes in Tglobal. The statistical relationships between changes in X (and its patterns of variability) and Tglobal are obtained in a training phase. Then, in an implementation phase, 190 simulations of Tglobal are generated using a simple climate model tuned to emulate 19 different global climate models (GCMs) and 10 different carbon cycle models. Using the generated Tglobal time series and the correlation between the forced changes in X and Tglobal, obtained in the training phase, the forced change in the X field can be generated many times using Monte Carlo analysis. A stochastic weather generator is used to generate realistic representations of weather which include spatial coherence. Because GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) are less likely to correctly represent unforced variability compared to observations, the stochastic weather generator takes as input measures of variability derived from observations, but also responds to forced changes in climate in a way that is consistent with the RCM projections. This approach to generating a large ensemble of projections is many orders of magnitude more computationally efficient than running multiple GCM or RCM simulations. Such a large ensemble of projections permits a description of a probability density function (PDF) of future climate states rather than a small number of individual story lines within that PDF, which may not be representative of the PDF as a whole; the EPIC method largely corrects for such potential sampling biases. The method is useful for providing projections of changes in climate to users wishing to investigate the impacts and implications of climate change in a probabilistic way. A web-based tool, using the EPIC method to provide probabilistic projections of changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures for New Zealand, has been developed and is described in this paper.

Decadal climate prediction in the large ensemble limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeager, S. G.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Strand, G.; Lindsay, K. T.; Danabasoglu, G.; Karspeck, A. R.; Bates, S. C.; Meehl, G. A.

2017-12-01

In order to quantify the benefits of initialization for climate prediction on decadal timescales, two parallel sets of historical simulations are required: one "initialized" ensemble that incorporates observations of past climate states and one "uninitialized" ensemble whose internal climate variations evolve freely and without synchronicity. In the large ensemble limit, ensemble averaging isolates potentially predictable forced and internal variance components in the "initialized" set, but only the forced variance remains after averaging the "uninitialized" set. The ensemble size needed to achieve this variance decomposition, and to robustly distinguish initialized from uninitialized decadal predictions, remains poorly constrained. We examine a large ensemble (LE) of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments carried out using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This 40-member CESM-DP-LE set of experiments represents the "initialized" complement to the CESM large ensemble of 20th century runs (CESM-LE) documented in Kay et al. (2015). Both simulation sets share the same model configuration, historical radiative forcings, and large ensemble sizes. The twin experiments afford an unprecedented opportunity to explore the sensitivity of DP skill assessment, and in particular the skill enhancement associated with initialization, to ensemble size. This talk will highlight the benefits of a large ensemble size for initialized predictions of seasonal climate over land in the Atlantic sector as well as predictions of shifts in the likelihood of climate extremes that have large societal impact.

Relative importance of thermal versus carbon dioxide induced warming from fossil-fuel combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Caldeira, K.

2015-12-01

The Earth is heated both when reduced carbon is oxidized to carbon dioxide and when outgoing longwave radiation is trapped by carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (CO2 greenhouse effect). The purpose of this study is to improve our understanding of time scales and relative magnitudes of climate forcing increase over time from pulse, continuous, and historical CO2 and thermal emissions. To estimate the amount of global warming that would be produced by thermal and CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, we calculate thermal emissions with thermal contents of fossil fuels and estimate CO2 emissions with emission factors from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. We then use a schematic climate model mimicking Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to investigate the climate forcing and the time-integrated climate forcing. We show that, considered globally, direct thermal forcing from fossil fuel combustion is about 1.71% the radiative forcing from CO2 that has accumulated in the atmosphere from past fossil fuel combustion. When a new power plant comes on line, the radiative forcing from the accumulation of released CO2 exceeds the thermal emissions from the power plant in less than half a year (and about 3 months for coal plants). Due to the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, CO2 radiative forcing greatly overwhelms direct thermal forcing on longer time scales. Ultimately, the cumulative radiative forcing from the CO2 exceeds the direct thermal forcing by a factor of ~100,000.

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhao, Chun

This study presents a diagnosis of a multi-resolution approach using the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A) for simulating regional climate. Four AMIP experiments are conducted for 1999-2009. In the first two experiments, MPAS-A is configured using global quasi-uniform grids at 120 km and 30 km grid spacing. In the other two experiments, MPAS-A is configured using variable-resolution (VR) mesh with local refinement at 30 km over North America and South America embedded inside a quasi-uniform domain at 120 km elsewhere. Precipitation and related fields in the four simulations are examined to determine how well the VR simulationsmore » reproduce the features simulated by the globally high-resolution model in the refined domain. In previous analyses of idealized aqua-planet simulations, the characteristics of the global high-resolution simulation in moist processes only developed near the boundary of the refined region. In contrast, the AMIP simulations with VR grids are able to reproduce the high-resolution characteristics across the refined domain, particularly in South America. This indicates the importance of finely resolved lower-boundary forcing such as topography and surface heterogeneity for the regional climate, and demonstrates the ability of the MPAS-A VR to replicate the large-scale moisture transport as simulated in the quasi-uniform high-resolution model. Outside of the refined domain, some upscale effects are detected through large-scale circulation but the overall climatic signals are not significant at regional scales. Our results provide support for the multi-resolution approach as a computationally efficient and physically consistent method for modeling regional climate.« less

Evolution of environmental factors affecting tropical cyclones from the LGM through the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korty, R.

2010-12-01

The debate about whether and how tropical cyclones respond to warming climates has raised several interesting questions, but it has also revealed there is much we do not understand about controls on frequency and cumulative metrics of intensity and activity. In this work, I examine how the models used for anthropogenic climate predictions handle large-scale factors influencing tropical cyclone development in a different regime: the paleoclimate simulations of the LGM and Holocene. The models were forced under guidelines set forth by the second paleoclimate model intercomparison project (PMIP2), and produce equilibrium solutions for forcings far removed from small perturbations to the present-day world. (LGM has substantially lower CO2 and CH4 levels, while mid-Holocene cases have similar levels to today but different seasonal amplitudes from orbital variations.) The large-scale environmental factors that support tropical cyclones in today’s climate undergo complex and at times counter-intuitive changes in the colder simulations. The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones (MPI) is lower throughout the tropics in the mid-Holocene simulations, despite having SSTs very similar to today. MPI changes at LGM are more complex: lower in some regions but higher in much of the subtropics, while SSTs are uniformly lower than today. The water vapor deficits in the tropical midtroposphere change in such a way as to make tropical cyclone formation easier in the colder states; this is a counterintuitive result, but one consistent with the predictions of fewer storms in model simulations of a warmer climate by the end of the 21st century. I analyze the thermodynamic reasons behind the evolution in the large-scale environmental factors as well as relevant dynamic factors such as low-level vorticity and tropospheric wind shear. This analysis is the first part of a long-term project to analyze model prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the recent geologic past; the analysis provides a new line of evidence to compare with geologic proxies of tropical cyclone activity through the Holocene. Changes in midtropospheric entropy deficit from preindustrial (PI) climate to mid-Holocene (6ka) and LGM. Lower values indicate a smaller saturation deficit, which is conducive for tropical cyclone development.

Disentangling the role of Natural Variability and Climate Change in the aggravation of Droughts in central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garreaud, R. D.; Boisier, J. P.; Rondanelli, R. F.

2016-12-01

Among other climate extreme events, droughts (annual rainfall deficit larger than 25%) have punctuated the hydro-climate history of central Chile (30-40°S) with profoundly negative effects on physical (e.g., water storage depletion), ecological (e.g., increase in forest fires) and human systems (e.g., major distress in rural communities). In this presentation we show that intense but short-lived (1 or 2 years long) droughts are associated with anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies over the subtropical south Pacific (Amudsen sea), reduced synoptic-scale variability in that area and weakening of the westerly winds impinging the west coast of South America. These large-scale anomalies often occurs in connection with the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña events). Of particular interest is an uninterrupted rainfall deficit since 2010 to date, referred to as the central Chile mega-drought (MD) in virtue of its unprecedented character in term of duration, spatial extent and coincidence with warm air temperatures. The protracted MD shares some of the climate features of the historical events but for the prevalence of near-neutral ENSO years with the exception of 2010 (La Niña) and 2015 (intense El Niño). Thus, we use a suite of fully-coupled and SST-forced climate simulations to disentangle natural and anthropogenic contributions to current mega drought as well as to shed light in the physical link between global climate change and rainfall deficit in central Chile drought. It turns out that anthropogenic climate change accounts for about a third of the drought as it forces SAM towards its positive polarity. The later enhances a dipole of geopotential height over the South Pacific that is conducive to dry conditions in central Chile.

Modeling Study of the Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Late Spring Drought in South China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Ning; Liu, Xiaohong

2013-10-01

In this study, the mechanisms underlying the decadal variability of late spring precipitation in south China are investigated using the latest version 1 of Community Earth System Model (CESM1). We aim to unravel the effects of different climate forcing agents, such as aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), on the decadal variation of precipitation with transient experiments from pre-industry (for year 1850) to present-day (for year 2000). Our results reveal that: (1) CESM1 can reproduce the climatological features of atmospheric circulation and precipitation for the late spring in south China; (2) Only simulations including the forcing of anthropogenic aerosols can reproducemore » the observed decreasing trend of late spring precipitation from 1950-2000 in south China; (3) Aerosols affect the decadal change of precipitation mainly by altering the large scale atmospheric circulation, and to a less extent by increasing the lower-tropospheric stability to inhibit the convective precipitation; and (4) In comparison, other climate forcing agents, such as GHGs, have much smaller effects on the decadal change of spring precipitation in south China. Key words: precipitation, aerosols, climate change, south China, Community Earth System Model« less

A large-scale simulation of climate change effects on flood regime - A case study for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.; Kao, S. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

2017-12-01

The damage and cost of flooding are continuously increasing due to climate change and variability, which compels the development and advance of global flood hazard models. However, due to computational expensiveness, evaluation of large-scale and high-resolution flood regime remains a challenge. The objective of this research is to use a coupled modeling framework that consists of a dynamically downscaled suite of eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, a distributed hydrologic model called DHSVM, and a computational-efficient 2-dimensional hydraulic model called Flood2D-GPU to study the impacts of climate change on flood regime in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin. Downscaled meteorologic forcings for 40 years in the historical period (1966-2005) and 40 years in the future period (2011-2050) were used as inputs to drive the calibrated DHSVM to generate annual maximum flood hydrographs. These flood hydrographs along with 30-m resolution digital elevation and estimated surface roughness were then used by Flood2D-GPU to estimate high-resolution flood depth, velocities, duration, and regime. Preliminary results for the Conasauga river basin (an upper subbasin within ACT) indicate that seven of the eleven climate projections show an average increase of 25 km2 in flooded area (between historic and future projections). Future work will focus on illustrating the effects of climate change on flood duration and area for the entire ACT basin.

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, Bjorn H.

2017-04-01

As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation around the Equator are found to be topics where further model investigations and observational constraints may provide rapid improvements to modelling of the precipitation response to future, CO2 dominated climate change.

Sub-Milankovitch millennial-scale climate variability in Middle Eocene deep-marine sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scotchman, J. I.; Pickering, K. T.; Robinson, S. A.

2009-12-01

Sub-Milankovitch millennial scale climate variability appears ubiquitous throughout the Quaternary and Pleistocene palaeoenvironmental records (e.g. McManus et al., 1999) yet the driving mechanism remains elusive. Possible mechanisms are generally linked to Quaternary-specific oceanic and cryospheric conditions (e.g. Maslin et al., 2001). An alternative external control, such as solar forcing, however, remains a compelling alternative hypothesis (e.g. Bond et al., 2001). This would imply that millennial-scale cycles are an intrinsic part of the Earth’s climatic system and not restricted to any specific period of time. Determining which of these hypotheses is correct impacts on our understanding of the climate system and its role as a driver of cyclic sedimentation during both icehouse and greenhouse climates. Here we show that Middle Eocene, laminated deep-marine sediments deposited in the Ainsa Basin, Spanish Pyrenees, contain 1,565-year (469 mm) cycles modulated by a 7,141-year (2157 mm) period. Climatic oscillations of 1,565-years recorded by element/Al ratios, are interpreted as representing climatically driven variation in sediment supply (terrigenous run-off) to the Ainsa basin. Climatic oscillations with this period are comparable to Quaternary Bond (~1,500-year), Dansgaard-Oeschger (~1,470-year) and Heinrich (~7,200-year) climatic events. Recognition of similar millennial-scale oscillations in the greenhouse climate of the Middle Eocene would appear inconsistent with an origin dependent upon Quaternary-specific conditions. Our observations lend support for pervasive millennial-scale climatic variability present throughout geologic time likely driven by an external forcing mechanism such as solar forcing. References Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M.N., Showers, W., Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I., Bonani, G. 2001. Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene. Science, 294, 2130-2136 Maslin, M., Seidov, D., Lowe, J. 2001. Synthesis of the nature and causes of rapid climate transitions during the Quaternary. In: The Oceans and rapid climate change: Past, present and future, (Seidov, D., Haupt, B. J. & Maslin, M., Eds.), AGU, Washington, D. C. McManus, J.F., Oppo, D.W. & Cullen, J.L. 1999. A 0.5-Million-Year Record of Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic. Science, 283, 971-975

Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape...

Environmental forcing on life history strategies: Evidence for multi-trophic level responses at ocean basin scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suryan, Robert M.; Saba, Vincent S.; Wallace, Bryan P.; Hatch, Scott A.; Frederiksen, Morten; Wanless, Sarah

2009-01-01

Variation in life history traits of organisms is thought to reflect adaptations to environmental forcing occurring from bottom-up and top-down processes. Such variation occurs not only among, but also within species, indicating demographic plasticity in response to environmental conditions. From a broad literature review, we present evidence for ocean basin- and large marine ecosystem-scale variation in intra-specific life history traits, with similar responses occurring among trophic levels from relatively short-lived secondary producers to very long-lived apex predators. Between North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean basins, for example, species in the Eastern Pacific exhibited either later maturation, lower fecundity, and/or greater annual survival than conspecifics in the Western Atlantic. Parallel variations in life histories among trophic levels also occur in adjacent seas and between eastern vs. western ocean boundaries. For example, zooplankton and seabird species in cooler Barents Sea waters exhibit lower fecundity or greater annual survival than conspecifics in the Northeast Atlantic. Sea turtles exhibit a larger size and a greater reproductive output in the Western Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific. These examples provide evidence for food-web-wide modifications in life history strategies in response to environmental forcing. We hypothesize that such dichotomies result from frequency and amplitude shifts in resource availability over varying temporal and spatial scales. We review data that supports three primary mechanisms by which environmental forcing affects life history strategies: (1) food-web structure; (2) climate variability affecting the quantity and seasonality of primary productivity; (3) bottom-up vs. top-down forcing. These proposed mechanisms provide a framework for comparisons of ecosystem function among oceanic regions (or regimes) and are essential in modeling ecosystem response to climate change, as well as for creating dynamic ecosystem-based marine conservation strategies.

Fire - Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L.

1990-01-01

Fire scar and tree growth chronologies (1700 to 1905) and fire statistics (since 1905) from Arizona and New Mexico show that small areas burn after wet springs associated with the low phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), whereas large areas burn after dry springs associated with the high phase of the SO. Through its synergistic influence on spring weather and fuel conditions, climatic variability in the tropical Pacific significantly influences vegetation dynamics in the southwestern United States. Synchrony of fire-free and severe fire years across diverse southwestern forests implies that climate forces fire regimes on a subcontinental scale; it also underscores the importance of exogenous factors in ecosystem dynamics.

Do the western Himalayas defy global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Ram R.; Park, Won-Kyu; Singh, Jayendra; Dubey, Bhasha

2004-09-01

Observational records and reconstructions from tree rings reflect premonsoon (March to May) temperature cooling in the western Himalaya during the latter part of the 20th century. A rapid decrease of minimum temperatures at around three times higher rate, as compared to the rate of increase in maximum temperatures found in local climate records is responsible for the cooling trend in mean premonsoon temperature. The increase of the diurnal temperature range is attributed to large scale deforestation and land degradation in the area and shows the higher influence of local forcing factors on climate in contrast to the general trend found in higher latitudes of the northern Hemisphere.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-01-01

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy–atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models. PMID:26635077

Using Climate Models to Evaluate Mechanisms of Glacial Inception

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The initiation and subsequent growth of an ice sheet or large glacier is based on two primary factors: 1. Most fundamentally, a region must exist with a positive net snow accumulation, that is, cold season snowfall exceeds warm season snowmelt. Because snow can melt very rapidly, in a practical sense this probably means that little or no snow melt should occur in the warm season (mountain glaciers being one possible exception). 2. When sufficient ice builds in a region with a positive net snow accumulation, the ice will flow into adjoining regions with a negative mass balance. Feedbacks can also then arise between the emerging ice sheet and the overall climate, which, among other effects, may cause the mass balance in that region to turn positive. A key question is the relative importance of these two factors. In particular, is it possible for a large lowland region to experience a positive mass balance, such that the ice sheet can arise largely 'in-situ'? Or instead are uplands necessary, such that essentially mountain glaciers form first, and then, under the right conditions, grow and coalesce, eventually spreading out into the lowlands? This is probably the single most fundamental question to be addressed in the modeling of glacial inception. Other key questions then focus on how the (upland or low-land) positive mass balance is obtained at some times, but not others (the ice sheets are not continuously present). For Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in particular, what climatic conditions can lead to abundant winter snowfall in the Canadian Arctic and northern Labrador in conjunction with cool summertime conditions? Are both required, or will cool summer conditions alone suffice? Conversely, are a few years of abnormally heavy snowfall all that is required to trigger glacial inception? A major need at present is for carefully constructed climate model studies aimed at addressing these questions. A successful strategy will almost certainly require more than just a global model; while the global climate model might be necessary to properly simulate large-scale forcing, such models have insufficient spatial resolution to adequately address the roles of topography and the nature of the land surface. Necessary also is the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (in conjunction with a global model). Possible forcing mechanisms of Pleistocene ice ages are well known (e.g., orbital forcing; CO2 fluctuations) but we must understand and be able to successfully model the actual processes involved in glacial inception before we can fully understand the true roles played by these forcing mechanisms.

Southern Ocean Deep-Convection as a Driver of Centennial-to-Millennial-Scale Climate Variability at Southern High Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedro, J. B.; Martin, T.; Steig, E. J.; Jochum, M.; Park, W.; Rasmussen, S.

2015-12-01

Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) are centennial-to-millennial scale warming events observed in Antarctic ice core records from the last glacial period and deglaciation. Mounting evidence links AIM events to parallel variations in atmospheric CO2, Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperatures and Antarctic Bottom Water production. According to the prevailing view, AIM events are forced from the North Atlantic by melt-water discharge from ice sheets suppressing the production of North Atlantic Deep Water and associated northward heat transport in the Atlantic. However observations and model studies increasingly suggest that melt-water fluxes have the wrong timing to be invoked as such a trigger. Here, drawing on results form the Kiel Climate Model, we present an alternative hypothesis in which AIM events are forced via internal oscillations in SO deep-convection. The quasi-periodic timescale of deep-convection events is set by heat (buoyancy) accumulation at SO intermediate depths and stochastic variability in sea ice conditions and freshening at the surface. Massive heat release from the SO convective zone drives Antarctic and large-scale southern hemisphere warming via a two-stage process involving changes in the location of Southern Ocean fronts, in the strength and intensity of the Westerlies and in meridional ocean and atmospheric heat flux anomalies. The potential for AIM events to be driven by internal Southern Ocean processes and the identification of time-lags internal to the southern high latitudes challenges conventional views on the North Atlantic as the pacemaker of millennial-scale climate variability.

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Beltran, Angelica Mendoza; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-11-01

The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) only explore part of this range as they all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented. In this study, we explore how different assumptions on future air pollution policy and climate policy lead to different concentrations of air pollutants for a set of RCP-like scenarios developed using the IMAGE model. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W m-2 and 6.0 W m-2. Simulations using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 for the present-day climate show that both climate mitigation and air pollution control policies have large-scale effects on pollutant concentrations, often of similar magnitude. If no further air pollution policies would be implemented, pollution levels could be considerably higher than in the RCPs, especially in Asia. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate by 2020, and in the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other on a global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W m-2 in the 6.0 W m-2 scenario and -0.16 W m-2 in the 2.6 W m-2 scenario.

Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

2017-12-01

Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land-atmosphere feedback strengths.

Continental-scale temperature covariance in proxy reconstructions and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Büntgen, Ulf; Smerdon, Jason; Zorita, Eduardo; Krusic, Paul; Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Schneider, Lea; Esper, Jan

2017-04-01

Inter-continental temperature variability over the past millennium has been reported to be more coherent in climate model simulations than in multi-proxy-based reconstructions, a finding that undermines the representation of spatial variability in either of these approaches. We assess the covariance of summer temperatures among Northern Hemisphere continents by comparing tree-ring based temperature reconstructions with state-of-the-art climate model simulations over the past millennium. We find inter-continental temperature covariance to be larger in tree-ring-only reconstructions compared to those derived from multi-proxy networks, thus enhancing the agreement between proxy- and model-based spatial representations. A detailed comparison of simulated temperatures, however, reveals substantial spread among the models. Over the past millennium, inter-continental temperature correlations are driven by the cooling after major volcanic eruptions in 1257, 1452, 1601, and 1815. The coherence of these synchronizing events appears to be elevated in several climate simulations relative to their own covariance baselines and the proxy reconstructions, suggesting these models overestimate the amplitude of cooling in response to volcanic forcing at large spatial scales.

Global Warming in Geologic Time

ScienceCinema

Archer, David

2018-01-01

The notion is pervasive in the climate science community and in the public at large that the climate impacts of fossil fuel CO2 release will only persist for a few centuries. This conclusion has no basis in theory or models of the atmosphere / ocean carbon cycle, which we review here. The largest fraction of the CO2 recovery will take place on time scales of centuries, as CO2 invades the ocean, but a significant fraction of the fossil fuel CO2, ranging in published models in the literature from 20-60%, remains airborne for a thousand years or longer. Ultimate recovery takes place on time scales of hundreds of thousands of years, a geologic longevity typically associated in public perceptions with nuclear waste. The glacial / interglacial climate cycles demonstrate that ice sheets and sea level respond dramatically to millennial-timescale changes in climate forcing. There are also potential positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle, including methane hydrates in the ocean, and peat frozen in permafrost, that are most sensitive to the long tail of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere.

Iranian speleothems: Investigating Quaternary climate variability in semi-arid Western Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carolin, Stacy; Morgan, Jacob; Peckover, Emily; Walker, Richard; Henderson, Gideon; Rowe, Peter; Andrews, Julian; Ersek, Vasile; Sloan, Alastair; Talebian, Morteza; Fattahi, Morteza; Nezamdoust, Javad

2016-04-01

Rapid population growth and limited water supply has highlighted the need for vigorous water resource management practices in the semi-arid regions of Western Asia. One significant unknown in this discussion is the future change in rainfall amount due to the consequential effects of today's greenhouse gas forcing on the regional climate system. Currently, there is little paleoclimate proxy data in Western Asia to extend climate records beyond the limits of the instrumental period, leaving scant evidence to investigate the system's response to various climate forcings on different timescales. Here we present a synthesis of speleothem climate records across northern Iran, from the wetter climate of the Alborz and Zagros mountain ranges to the dry northeast, in order to investigate the magnitude of past climate variability and the forcings responsible. The stalagmites collected from the west and north-central mountain ranges, areas with ~200-400mm mean annual precipitation mostly falling within the fall-winter-spring months, all demonstrate growth limited to the interglacial periods of the Quaternary. We present overlapping Holocene stable isotope records with a complementary trace element record to assist in interpreting the isotopic variability. One of the records is sampled at <4yr resolution and spans 3.7-5.3 kyBP, a contested period of catastrophic droughts that allegedly eradicated civilizations in areas of the near East. Imposed upon decadal-scale variability, the record reveals a 1,000-yr gradual trend toward enriched stable oxygen isotope values, interpreted as a trend toward drier conditions, which ends with an abrupt 300-yr cessation in growth beginning at 4.3 kyBP, coincident with the so-called 4.2 kyBP drought event. From the northeast Iranian plateau, we present a new stalagmite record that spans the penultimate deglaciation and Stages 5e-5a. This region presently receives limited rain annually (~100-300mm/yr, regularly falling between November and May), and the record presented is one of the first speleothem climate records to span a deglaciation in West Asia. To improve our interpretation of the speleothem climate proxy timeseries, we use multiple decades of Tehran GNIP data, meteorological data, and isotope-equipped climate model outputs to investigate the large-scale mechanisms forcing isotopic variations in rainwater across northern Iran. We also examine possible transformation of water isotopes during the transition through the karst aquifer based on site properties, measured dripwater isotopes, and simple model experiments.

Is climate change intensifying the drying-trend in the Caribbean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, D. A.; Ault, T.; Fasullo, J.; Carrillo, C. M.

2017-12-01

Since 1950, the Caribbean (11ºN-25ºN; 85ºW-60ºW) has seen a significant drying trend characterized by several recent droughts, some of them contemporaneous with El Niño events. Moreover, the most recent drought from 2013 to 2016 was both the most severe and widespread event since at least 1950, and was associated with high temperatures, likely driven in part by climate change. This work examines the role of increased evaporative demand resulting from warmer temperatures on the drying trend observed in the Caribbean since 1950, using observations and model simulations. Large-scale dynamics associated with drought are also analyzed using sea surface temperature, geopotential height, wind, and precipitation anomalies, as well as radiative fluxes anomalies. Furthermore, land surface model soil moisture and high-resolution self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) datasets are used to quantify drought severity at local scales. The anthropogenic contribution to drought severity is estimated as the difference between the scPDSI calculated using linearly-detrended temperatures, and the scPDSI computed with the observed trend, with unadjusted precipitation, net radiation, and wind speed. Soil moisture anomalies driven by climate change are derived by comparing a large ensemble of forced simulations against a pre-industrial control. The resulting analysis indicates that anthropogenic forcing has intensified the drying trend in the Caribbean by -0.4 scPDSI-units over 60 years, and has increased the dry-land area by 10%. These findings are consistent with observed potential evapotranspiration (PET) anomalies, which are 30% higher than PET-anomalies estimated using detrended temperatures. These results suggest that climate change is already increasing the risk of drought in the Caribbean by enhancing the atmospheric demand of moisture through temperature, and provide insights into the role of climate change in future drought risk in the region.

Evaluating cloud processes in large-scale models: Of idealized case studies, parameterization testbeds and single-column modelling on climate time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neggers, Roel

2016-04-01

Boundary-layer schemes have always formed an integral part of General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for numerical weather and climate prediction. The spatial and temporal scales associated with boundary-layer processes and clouds are typically much smaller than those at which GCMs are discretized, which makes their representation through parameterization a necessity. The need for generally applicable boundary-layer parameterizations has motivated many scientific studies, which in effect has created its own active research field in the atmospheric sciences. Of particular interest has been the evaluation of boundary-layer schemes at "process-level". This means that parameterized physics are studied in isolated mode from the larger-scale circulation, using prescribed forcings and excluding any upscale interaction. Although feedbacks are thus prevented, the benefit is an enhanced model transparency, which might aid an investigator in identifying model errors and understanding model behavior. The popularity and success of the process-level approach is demonstrated by the many past and ongoing model inter-comparison studies that have been organized by initiatives such as GCSS/GASS. A red line in the results of these studies is that although most schemes somehow manage to capture first-order aspects of boundary layer cloud fields, there certainly remains room for improvement in many areas. Only too often are boundary layer parameterizations still found to be at the heart of problems in large-scale models, negatively affecting forecast skills of NWP models or causing uncertainty in numerical predictions of future climate. How to break this parameterization "deadlock" remains an open problem. This presentation attempts to give an overview of the various existing methods for the process-level evaluation of boundary-layer physics in large-scale models. This includes i) idealized case studies, ii) longer-term evaluation at permanent meteorological sites (the testbed approach), and iii) process-level evaluation at climate time-scales. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach will be identified and discussed, and some thoughts about possible future developments will be given.

Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.;

A climate simulation of the first millennium AD using a comprehensive Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo

2014-05-01

Investigations of past climate using fully coupled comprehensive Earth System Models are restricted by the large computational costs of these simulations. Here we present first results from an on-going simulation with the MPI-ESM-P starting in year 100 BC. The simulation is forced with changes in orbital forcing and long-term solar variations augmented by a synthetic 11-year cycle including an interactive ozone cycle. For the first time also changes in volcanic activity are implemented based on the reconstruction method by Crowley and Unterman (2012). The basis of the extended volcanic forcing in terms of aerosol optical depth and effective radius are new sulfate estimations from ice cores from Greenland (NEEM) and Antarctica (WAIS) presented by Sigl et al. (2013). Because the NEEM record only reaches back as far as 79 AD, the time until 100 BC was filled by earlier information contained in the Dye 3 and GRIP record (Clausen et al., 1997). Compared to the 2nd millennium AD, the first millennium does however show a considerably reduced amount of large explosive tropical eruptions. On hemispheric and global scale the large outbreaks around the years 530 and 740 AD are well reflected as negative temperature anomalies. The 79 AD Vesuvius eruption does not however produce a pronounced hemispheric signal. The amount of sulphate ejected into the stratosphere may have been too low for a sustained hemispheric-scale cooling. The large eruption of 530 AD (so called 'mystic cloud') is however well reflected within the temperature evolution and is more pronounced over the northern hemisphere during summertime. On longer, multi-centennial, time scales, global temperatures show a slight decrease. This decrease is more pronounced over the NH hemisphere during JJA and is caused by the decline in the TOA short wave incoming radiation. Over the extratropical SH changes in orbital forcing are not reflected in temperature trends as clearly as over the NH due to the larger oceanic and ice-covered areas. Future investigations will concentrate on the analyses of additional modes of variability, such as the AO and AAO, and ENSO as well as changes in ocean circulation, for instance related to the variability of the North Atlantic.

Profile of heating rate due to aerosols using lidar and skyradiometer in SKYNET Hefei site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Liu, D.; Xie, C.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols have a significant impact on climate due to their important role in modifying atmosphere energy budget. On global scale, the direct radiative forcing is estimated to be in the range of -0.9 to -0.1 Wm-2 for aerosols [1]. Yet, these estimates are subject to very large uncertainties because of uncertainties in spatial and temporal variations of aerosols. At local scales, as aerosol properties can vary spatially and temporally, radiative forcing due to aerosols can be also very different and it can exceed the global value by an order of magnitude. Hence, it is very important to investigate aerosol loading, properties, and radiative forcing due to them in detail on local regions of climate significance. Haze and dust events in Hefei, China are explored by Lidar and Skyradiometer. Aerosol optical properties including the AOD, SSA, AAE and size distribution are analysed by using the SKYRAD.PACK [2] and presented in this paper. Furthermore, the radiative forcing due to aerosols and the heating rate in the ATM are also calculated using SBDART model [3]. The results are shown that the vertical heating rate is tightly related to aerosol profile. References: 1. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basic. Contribution of Working Group I Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Solomon S, Qing D H, Manning M, et al. eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, N Y, USA. 2. Nakajima, T., G. Tonna, R. Rao, Y. Kaufman, and B. Holben, 1996: Use of sky brightness measurements from ground for remote sensing of particulate poly dispersions, Appl. Opt., 35, 2672-2686. 3. Ricchiazzi et al 1998. SBDART: a research and teaching software tool for plane-parallel radiative transfer in the Earth's atmosphere,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,79,2101-2114.

The lifecycle and climate-impact of contrail cirrus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The lifecycle of contrail cirrus has to be understood as a prerequisite to compute its weather and climate impact for given airtraffic and meteorology. As a new concept, this study distinguishes between: 1) Externally limited contrail cirrus, where contrails form in moderately ice-supersaturated air, but ice particles stay small and contrails end by sublimation because of drying of the ambient air, e.g., when the ambient air subsides; 2) Internally limited contrail cirrus, where contrails form at high humidity with strong supersaturation or form in rising air masses, so that the ice particles grow until their fall speed gets large, and the ice particles finally fall to lower levels (e.g. in fall streaks). For both kinds of contrail cirrus, scaling laws are set up which show how the "Surface Forcing" (SF), i.e. the time-integral of optical depth times width (integral of ice particle number per flight distance times ice particle cross-section area times extinction efficiency) depends on the lifetime, on the number of ice particles per unit length, ambient humidity, uplift velocity, wind shear, turbulent mixing, and temperature. SF can be converted into an energy forcing (EF), from which the global radiative forcing can be evaluated, for given radiative Earth-atmosphere properties and traffic density. The scaling laws are tested by comparison to global contrail simulations with the most recent version of CoCiP (as in Schumann, 2012; and some changes), using ECMWF data and a global traffic data bases (ACCRI). The model assumes that contrail ice particles form initially mainly on soot, that the ice particles consume the ice supersaturation in the contrail plume, that the ice particle number decreases slightly with lifetime, and that interactions of contrails with ambient cirrus are weak. The scaling laws and the model allow estimating the climate impact of contrails as a function of a given aircraft and weather parameters. The results are compared to available results from airborne observation campaigns, like CONCERT and MLCIRRUS, from remote sensing, from large eddy simulations and global model studies. For externally limited contrails, the climate impact of contrails increases with about the square of the externally controlled lifetime and the third root of the number contrail ice particles per flight distance. For internally limited contrails, SF grows about linearly with this number.

Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

2015-12-21

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

Past climates primary productivity changes in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, P. K.; Kageyama, M.; Bopp, L.; Beaufort, L.; Braconnot, P.; Bassinot, F. C.

2016-02-01

Organic climate recorders, e.g., coccolithophorids and foraminifera, are widely used to reconstruct past climate conditions, such as the Indian monsoon intensity and variability, since they are sensitive to climate-induced fluctuations of their environment. In the Indian Ocean, it is commonly accepted that a stronger summer monsoon will enhance productivity in the Arabian Sea and therefore the amount of organisms in a sediment core should reflect monsoon intensity. In this study, we use the coupled Earth System Model IPSLCM5A, which has a biogeochemical component PISCES that simulates primary production. We use 8 climate simulations of the IPSL-CM5A model, from -72kyr BP climate conditions to a preindustrial state. Our simulations have different orbital forcing (precession, obliquity and eccentricity), greenhouse gas concentrations as well as different ice sheet covers. The objective of this work is to characterize the mechanisms behind the changes in primary productivity between the different time periods. Our model shows that in climates where monsoon is enhanced (due to changes in precession) we do not necessarily see an increase in summer productivity in the Arabian Sea, and inversely. It seems that the glacial-interglacial state of the simulation is important in driving productivity changes in this region of the world. We try to explain the changes in productivity in the Arabian Sea with the local climate and then to link the changes in local climate to large scale atmospheric forcing and commonly used Indian monsoon definitions.

Impact of potential large-scale and medium-scale irrigation on the West African Monsoon and its dependence on location of irrigated area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.; IM, E. S.

2014-12-01

This study investigates the impact of potential large-scale (about 400,000 km2) and medium-scale (about 60,000 km2) irrigation on the climate of West Africa using the MIT Regional Climate Model. A new irrigation module is implemented to assess the impact of location and scheduling of irrigation on rainfall distribution over West Africa. A control simulation (without irrigation) and various sensitivity experiments (with irrigation) are performed and compared to discern the effects of irrigation location, size and scheduling. In general, the irrigation-induced surface cooling due to anomalously wet soil tends to suppress moist convection and rainfall, which in turn induces local subsidence and low level anti-cyclonic circulation. These local effects are dominated by a consistent reduction of local rainfall over the irrigated land, irrespective of its location. However, the remote response of rainfall distribution to irrigation exhibits a significant sensitivity to the latitudinal position of irrigation. The low-level northeasterly flow associated with anti-cyclonic circulation centered over the irrigation area can enhance the extent of low level convergence through interaction with the prevailing monsoon flow, leading to significant increase in rainfall. Despite much reduced forcing of irrigation water, the medium-scale irrigation seems to draw the same response as large-scale irrigation, which supports the robustness of the response to irrigation in our modeling system. Both large-scale and medium-scale irrigation experiments show that an optimal irrigation location and scheduling exists that would lead to a more efficient use of irrigation water. The approach of using a regional climate model to investigate the impact of location and size of irrigation schemes may be the first step in incorporating land-atmosphere interactions in the design of location and size of irrigation projects. However, this theoretical approach is still in early stages of development and further research is needed before any practical application in water resources planning. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2014-01-01

To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VICmore » simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.« less

Tropical Convection and Climate Processes in a Cumulus Ensemble Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, Chung-Hsiung

1999-01-01

Local convective-radiative equilibrium states of the tropical atmosphere are determined by the following external forcing: 1) Insolation, 2) Surface heat and moisture exchanges (primarily radiation and evaporation), 3) Heating and moistening induced by large-scale circulation. Understanding the equilibrium states of the tropical atmosphere in different external forcing conditions is of vital importance for studying cumulus parameterization, climate feedbacks, and climate changes. We extend our previous study using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model which resolves convective-radiative processes more explicitly than global climate models do. Several experiments are carried out under fixed insolation and sea surface temperature. The prescribed SST consists of a uniform warm pool (29C) surrounded by uniform cold SST (26C). The model produces "Walker"-type circulation with the ascending branch of the model atmosphere more humid than the descending part, but the vertically integrated temperature does not show a horizontal gradient. The results are compared with satellite measured moisture by SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) and temperature by MSU in the ascending and descending tropical atmosphere. The vertically integrated temperature and humidity in the two model regimes are comparable to the observed values in the tropics.

On the wrong inference of long-range correlations in climate data; the case of the solar and volcanic forcing over the Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varotsos, Costas A.; Efstathiou, Maria N.

2017-05-01

A substantial weakness of several climate studies on long-range dependence is the conclusion of long-term memory of the climate conditions, without considering it necessary to establish the power-law scaling and to reject a simple exponential decay of the autocorrelation function. We herewith show one paradigmatic case, where a strong long-range dependence could be wrongly inferred from incomplete data analysis. We firstly apply the DFA method on the solar and volcanic forcing time series over the tropical Pacific, during the past 1000 years and the results obtained show that a statistically significant straight line fit to the fluctuation function in a log-log representation is revealed with slope higher than 0.5, which wrongly may be assumed as an indication of persistent long-range correlations in the time series. We argue that the long-range dependence cannot be concluded just from this straight line fit, but it requires the fulfilment of the two additional prerequisites i.e. reject the exponential decay of the autocorrelation function and establish the power-law scaling. In fact, the investigation of the validity of these prerequisites showed that the DFA exponent higher than 0.5 does not justify the existence of persistent long-range correlations in the temporal evolution of the solar and volcanic forcing during last millennium. In other words, we show that empirical analyses, based on these two prerequisites must not be considered as panacea for a direct proof of scaling, but only as evidence that the scaling hypothesis is plausible. We also discuss the scaling behaviour of solar and volcanic forcing data based on the Haar tool, which recently proved its ability to reliably detect the existence of the scaling effect in climate series.

What We Talk About When We Talk About Drought: Tree-ring Perspectives on Model-Data Comparisons in Hydroclimate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Comparative analyses of paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations can provide valuable insights into past and future climate events. Conducting meaningful and quantitative comparisons, however, can be difficult for a variety of reasons. Here, we use tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions to discuss some best practices for paleoclimate-model comparisons, highlighting recent studies that have successfully used this approach. These analyses have improved our understanding of the Medieval-era megadroughts, ocean forcing of large scale drought patterns, and even climate change contributions to future drought risk. Additional work is needed, however, to better reconcile and formalize uncertainties across observed, modeled, and reconstructed variables. In this regard, process based forward models of proxy-systems will likely be a critical tool moving forward.

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales. However, as the focus shifts towards higher frequency variability, decadal or multidecadal, the need for larger simulation ensembles becomes more evident. Nevertheless,the comparison at these time scales may expose some lines of research on the origin of multidecadal regional climate variability.

Contrasted effects of climate change on temperate large lakes oxygen-depletion (Lakes Geneva, Bourget, Annecy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenny, Jean-Philippe; Arnaud, Fabien; Dorioz, Jean-Marcel; Alric, Benjamin; Sabatier, Pierre; Perga, Marie-Elodie

2013-04-01

Among manifestations of the entry in a new geological era -The Anthropocene- marked by the fingerprinting of human activities in global ecology, the development of persistent zones of oxygen-depletion particularly threatens aquatic ecosystems. This results in a loss of fisheries, a loss of biodiversity, an alteration of food-webs and even, in extreme cases, mass mortality of fauna1. Whereas hypoxia -defined as dissolved oxygen ≤2 mg/l- has long been considered as a consequence of the sole eutrophication, recent studies showed it also depends on climate change. Despite basic processes of oxygen-depletion are well-known, till now no study evaluated the contrasted effects of climate changes on a long-term perspective. Here we show that climate change paced fluctuation of hypoxia in 3 large lakes (Lake Geneva, Lake Bourget and Lake Annecy) that were previously disturbed by unprecedented nutrient input. Our approach couples century-scale paleo-reconstruction of 1) hypoxia, 2) flood regime and 3) nutrient level, thanks to an exceptional 80 sediment core data collection taken in three large lakes (Geneva, Bourget, Annecy), and monitoring data. Our results show that volume of hypoxia can be annually estimated according to varve records through large lakes. Quantitative additive models were then used to identify and hierarchy environmental forcings on hypoxia. Flood regime and air temperatures hence appeared as significant forcing factors of hypolimnetic hypoxia. Noticeably, their effects are highly contrasted between lakes, depending on specific lake morphology and local hydrological regime. We hence show that greater is the lake specific river discharge the more is the control of winter mixing and the lower is the control of thermal stratification on oxygen depletion. Our study confirms that the perturbation of food web due to nutrient input led to a higher vulnerability of aquatic ecosystems to climate change. We further show specific hydrological regime play a crucial role in oxygen-depletion processes. This implies a careful attention must be paid to changes in hydrological patterns while assessing the effect of climate change on large water bodies.

Testing for the Possible Influence of Unknown Climate Forcings upon Global Temperature Increases from 1950-2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.

2012-10-15

Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numericalmore » global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures—and global-mean near-surface temperatures—is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.« less

The role of large-scale eddies in the climate equilibrium. Part 2: Variable static stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Shuntai; Stone, Peter H.

1993-01-01

Lorenz's two-level model on a sphere is used to investigate how the results of Part 1 are modified when the interaction of the vertical eddy heat flux and static stability is included. In general, the climate state does not depend very much on whether or not this interaction is included, because the poleward eddy heat transport dominates the eddy forcing of mean temperature and wind fields. However, the climatic sensitivity is significantly affected. Compared to two-level model results with fixed static stability, the poleward eddy heat flux is less sensitive to the meridional temperature gradient and the gradient is more sensitive to the forcing. For example, the logarithmic derivative of the eddy flux with respect to the gradient has a slope that is reduced from approximately 15 on a beta-plane with fixed static stability and approximately 6 on a sphere with fixed static stability, to approximately 3 to 4 in the present model. This last result is more in line with analyses from observations. The present model also has a stronger baroclinic adjustment than that in Part 1, more like that in two-level beta-plane models with fixed static stability, that is, the midlatitude isentropic slope is very insensitive to the forcing, the diabatic heating, and the friction, unless the forcing is very weak.

A vorticity budget for the Gulf Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bras, Isabela; Toole, John

2017-04-01

We develop a depth-averaged vorticity budget framework to diagnose the dynamical balance of the Gulf Stream, and apply this framework to observations and the ECCO state estimate (Wunsch and Heimbach 2013) above the thermocline in the subtropical North Atlantic. Using the hydrographic and ADCP data along the WOCE/CLIVAR section A22 and a variety of wind stress data products, we find that the advective vorticity flux out of the western region is on the same order as the wind stress forcing over the eastern portion of the gyre. This is consistent with a large-scale balance between a negative source of vorticity from wind stress forcing and a positive source of vorticity in the western region. Additionally, the form of the vorticity flux indicates that the Gulf Stream has a significant inertial component. In the ECCO state estimate, we diagnose a seasonal cycle in advective vorticity flux across a meridional section associated with seasonal fluctuations in Gulf Stream transport. This vorticity flux is forced by wind stress over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic and balanced by lateral friction with the western boundary. The lateral friction in ECCO is a necessary parameterization of smaller scale processes that occur in the real ocean, and quantifying these remains an open and interesting question. This simplified framework provides a means to interpret large scale ocean dynamics. In our application, it points to wind stress forcing over the subtropical North Altantic as an important regulator of the Gulf Stream and hence the climate system.

Do GCM's predict the climate.... Or the low frequency weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D.; Varon, D.

2012-04-01

Over twenty-five years ago, a three-regime scaling model was proposed describing the statistical variability of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from weather scales out to ≈ 100 kyrs. Using modern in situ data reanalyses, monthly surface series (at 5ox5o), 8 "multiproxy" (yearly) series of the Northern hemisphere from 1500 - 1980, and GRIP and Vostok paleotemperatures at 5.2 and ≈ 100 year resolutions (over the past 91-420 kyrs), we refine the model and show how it can be understood with the help of new developments in nonlinear dynamics, especially multifractals and cascades. In a scaling range, mean fluctuations in state variables such as temperature ΔT vary in power law manners ≈ Δt**H the where Δt is the duration. At small (weather) scales the fluctuation exponents are generally H>0; they grow with scale (Δt). At longer scales Δt >τw (≈ 10 days) H changes sign, the fluctuations decrease with scale; this is the low variability, "low frequency weather" regime. In this regime, the spectrum is a relatively flat "plateau", it's variability is low, stable, corresponding to our usual idea of "long term weather statistics". Finally for longer times, Δt>τc ≈ 10 - 100 years, once again H>0, so that the variability increases with scale: the true climate regime. These scaling regimes allow us to objectively define the weather as fluctuations over periods <τw, to define "climate states" as fluctuations at scale τc and then "climate change" as the fluctuations at longer periods (Δt>τc). We show that the intermediate low frequency weather regime is the result of the weather regime undergoing a "dimensional transition": at temporal scales longer than the typical lifetime of planetary structures (τw), the spatial degrees of freedom are rapidly quenched so that only the temporal degrees of freedom are important. This low frequency weather regime has statistical properties well reproduced not only by stochastic cascade models of weather, but also by control runs (i.e. without climate forcing) of GCM based climate forecasting systems including those of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (Paris) and the Earth Forecasting System (Hamburg). In order for these systems to go beyond simply predicting low frequency weather i.e. in order for them to predict the climate, they need appropriate climate forcings and/ or new internal mechanisms of variability. Using statistical scaling techniques we examine the scale dependence of fluctuations from forced and unforced GCM outputs, including from the ECHO-G and EFS simulations in the Millenium climate reconstruction project and compare this with data, multiproxies and paleo data. Our general conclusion is that the models systematically underestimate the multidecadal, multicentennial scale variability.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Gao, X.

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity, with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also nd that dierent initial conditions lead to dierences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauvset, Siv K.; Tjiputra, Jerry; Muri, Helene

2017-12-01

Here we use an Earth system model with interactive biogeochemistry to project future ocean biogeochemistry impacts from the large-scale deployment of three different radiation management (RM) climate engineering (also known as geoengineering) methods: stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), marine sky brightening (MSB), and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT). We apply RM such that the change in radiative forcing in the RCP8.5 emission scenario is reduced to the change in radiative forcing in the RCP4.5 scenario. The resulting global mean sea surface temperatures in the RM experiments are comparable to those in RCP4.5, but there are regional differences. The forcing from MSB, for example, is applied over the oceans, so the cooling of the ocean is in some regions stronger for this method of RM than for the others. Changes in ocean net primary production (NPP) are much more variable, but SAI and MSB give a global decrease comparable to RCP4.5 (˜ 6 % in 2100 relative to 1971-2000), while CCT gives a much smaller global decrease of ˜ 3 %. Depending on the RM methods, the spatially inhomogeneous changes in ocean NPP are related to the simulated spatial change in the NPP drivers (incoming radiation, temperature, availability of nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass) but mostly dominated by the circulation changes. In general, the SAI- and MSB-induced changes are largest in the low latitudes, while the CCT-induced changes tend to be the weakest of the three. The results of this work underscore the complexity of climate impacts on NPP and highlight the fact that changes are driven by an integrated effect of multiple environmental drivers, which all change in different ways. These results stress the uncertain changes to ocean productivity in the future and advocate caution at any deliberate attempt at large-scale perturbation of the Earth system.

Regional scale temperature and circulation impacts of short-lived climate pollutants reductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, T.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; von Salzen, K.; Shrestha, R.

2017-12-01

The role of anthropogenic aerosols on climate is still not clearly understood. Aerosol forcing is spatially heterogeneous and their emissions are controlled by regional economic and regulatory factors. For example, it is known that black carbon is responsible for a global net warming but its regional impacts are less understood. We evaluate the regional climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosol emission changes over the recent past and near future. Specifically, we report on numerical experiments using aerosol emissions from the Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants (ECLIPSE, Stohl et al., 2015) project. These scenarios are alternative mitigation pathways for black carbon and organic aerosol over the period from 1990 to 2050. With these scenarios, we carried out three sets of simulation using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2): 1) A current legislation emission (CLE) scenario for black carbon and organic aerosols; 2) A mitigation (MIT) scenario for black carbon and organic aerosols, and; 3) A black carbon only mitigation scenario (MIT-BC). Five simulations were carried out for each scenario and the response analyzed in the context of a large fifty-member initial condition ensemble of simulations using historical anthropogenic aerosol forcings to 2005 as well as those forcing from the RCP8.5 scenario to 2020. Our main finding is a significant springtime cooling over the Northern midlatitudes that attributable to black carbon. Other cooling signals attributable to black carbon reductions are found in the boreal summer over Southern Europe as well as over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropical troposphere in boreal summer and fall. All of these cooling signals are to some degree offset by simultaneous reductions in organic aerosols. As a check on the robustness, we will also report on results of five-member draws from the large ensemble over periods of comparably strong radiative forcing changes, to gauge the chance of finding similar signals as a result of internal variability alone.

A Digital Map From External Forcing to the Final Surface Warming Pattern and its Seasonal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, M.

2015-12-01

Historically, only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface and atmosphere. In the last 5-6 years, we have developed a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical parameterization package. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external forcing, due to water vapor feedback, clouds, surface albedo, local vertical convection, and non-local atmospheric dynamical feedbacks, as well as oceanic heat storage. It has been shown that seasonal variations in the cloud feedback, surface albedo feedback, and ocean heat storage/dynamics feedback, directly caused by the strong annual cycle of insolation, contribute primarily to the large seasonal variation of polar warming. Furthermore, the CO2 forcing, and water vapor and atmospheric dynamics feedbacks add to the maximum polar warming in fall/winter.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M.M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

2017-04-01

Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential (RTP) coefficients, which directly link regional aerosol or aerosol precursor emissions to the temperature response in different regions. These RTP coefficients can provide a simplified way to perform an initial evaluation of climate impacts of e.g. different emission policy pathways and pollution abatement strategies.

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, David F.

2010-01-01

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Evaluation of Visibility Sensors at the Eglin Air Force Base Climatic Chamber

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-10-01

Three transmissometers and five forward-scatter meters were evaluated for measuring fog, haze, rain and snow in the large test chamber of the Eglin Air Force Base Climatic Laboratory. Methods were developed for generating moderately uniform and stabl...

Investigating the dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and clouds on the spatial scale of large-scale forcing at SGP [Investigating the scale dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and cloud by using gridded forcing data at SGP

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

2017-08-05

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version ofmore » the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.« less

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2015-02-01

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Drought and heatwaves in Europe: historical reconstruction and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Olda; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Heat waves and droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies and natural systems to their limits by inducing large famines, increasing health risks to the population, creating drinking and irrigation water shortfalls, inducing natural fires and degradation of soil and water quality, and in many cases causing large socio-economic losses. Europe, in particular, has endured large scale drought-heat-wave events during the recent past (e.g., 2003 European drought), which have induced enormous socio-economic losses as well as casualties. Recent studies showed that the prediction of droughts and heatwaves is subject to large-scale forcing and parametric uncertainties that lead to considerable uncertainties in the projections of extreme characteristics such as drought magnitude/duration and area under drought, among others. Future projections are also heavily influenced by the RCP scenario uncertainty as well as the coarser spatial resolution of the models. The EDgE project funded by the Copernicus programme (C3S) provides an unique opportunity to investigate the evolution of droughts and heatwaves from 1950 until 2099 over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2. In this project, high-resolution multi-model hydrologic simulations with the mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), Noah-MP, VIC and PCR-GLOBWB have been completed for the historical period 1955-2015. Climate projections have been carried out with five CMIP-5 GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M from 2006 to 2099 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Using these multi-model unprecedented simulations, daily soil moisture index and temperature anomalies since 1955 until 2099 will be estimated. Using the procedure proposed by Samaniego et al. (2013), the probabilities of exceeding the benchmark events in the reference period 1980-2010 will be estimated for each RCP scenario. References http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and M. Zink, 2013: Implications of parameter uncertainty on soil moisture drought analysis in Germany. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 47-68, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-075.1. Samaniego, L., et al. 2016: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins. Climatic Change. 1-15.

On the limitations of General Circulation Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, Peter H.; Risbey, James S.

1990-01-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) by definition calculate large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes and their associated feedbacks from first principles. This aspect of GCMs is widely believed to give them an advantage in simulating global scale climate changes as compared to simpler models which do not calculate the large-scale processes from first principles. However, it is pointed out that the meridional transports of heat simulated GCMs used in climate change experiments differ from observational analyses and from other GCMs by as much as a factor of two. It is also demonstrated that GCM simulations of the large scale transports of heat are sensitive to the (uncertain) subgrid scale parameterizations. This leads to the question whether current GCMs are in fact superior to simpler models for simulating temperature changes associated with global scale climate change.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D.; Kiem, A. S.

2008-10-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

Role of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation and its interannual variability in simulation of seasonal mean in CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, Prasanth A.; Aher, Vaishali R.

2018-01-01

Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which appears as "active" and "break" spells of rainfall, is an important component of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The present study investigates the potential of new National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the ISO with emphasis to its interannual variability (IAV) and its possible role in the seasonal mean rainfall. The present analysis shows that the spatial distribution of CFSv2 rainfall has noticeable differences with observations in both ISO and IAV time scales. Active-break cycle of CFSv2 has similar evolution during both strong and weak years. Regardless of a reasonable El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon teleconnection in the model, the overestimated Arabian Sea (AS) sea surface temperature (SST)-convection relationship hinters the large-scale influence of ENSO over the ISM region and adjacent oceans. The ISO scale convections over AS and Bay of Bengal (BoB) have noteworthy contribution to the seasonal mean rainfall, opposing the influence of boundary forcing in these areas. At the same time, overwhelming contribution of ISO component over AS towards the seasonal mean modifies the effect of slow varying boundary forcing to large-scale summer monsoon. The results here underline that, along with the correct simulation of monsoon ISO, its IAV and relationship with the boundary forcing also need to be well captured in coupled models for the accurate simulation of seasonal mean anomalies of the monsoon and its teleconnections.

Effects of increasing aerosol on regional climate change in China: Observation and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Leung, L.; Ghan, S. J.

2002-12-01

We present regional simulations of climate, aerosol properties, and direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol and analyze the pollutant emissions and observed climatic data during the latter decades of last century in China. The regional model generally captures the spatial distributions and seasonal pattern of temperature and precipitation. Aerosol extinction coefficient and aerosol optical depth are generally well simulated in both magnitude and spatial distribution, which provides a reliable foundation for estimating the radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosol. The radiative forcing of aerosol is in the range of -1 to -14 W m-2 in autumn and summer and -1 to -9 W m-2 in spring and winter, with substantial spatial variability at the sub-regional scale. A strong maximum in negative radiative forcing corresponding to the maximum optical depth is found over the Sichuan Basin, where emission as well as relative humidity are high, and stagnant atmospheric conditions inhibit pollutants dispersion. Negative radiative forcing of aerosol induces a surface cooling, which is stronger in the range of -0.6 to -1.2oC in autumn and winter than in spring (-0.3 to -0.6oC) and summer (0.0 to -0.9oC) over the Sichuan Basin and East China due to more significant effects of cloud and precipitation in the summer and spring. Aerosol-induced cooling is mainly contributed by cooling in the daytime temperature. The cooling reaches a maximum and is statistically significant in the Sichuan Basin. The effect of aerosol on precipitation is not evident in our simulations. The temporal and spatial patterns of temperature trends observed in the second half of the twentieth century, including the asymmetric daily maximum and minimum temperature trends, are at least qualitatively consistent with the simulated aerosol-induced cooling over the Sichuan Basin and East China. It supports the hypothesis that the observed temperature trends during the latter decades of the twentieth century, especially the cooling trends over the Sichuan Basin and some parts of East China, which are exceptions to the large scale warming trend in the northern hemisphere, are at least partly related to the cooling induced by atmospheric aerosol loading that has been increasing since the middle of the last century.

Attribution of spring snow water equivalent (SWE) changes over the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Naveed Khaliq, M.

2017-06-01

Snow is an important component of the cryosphere and it has a direct and important influence on water storage and supply in snowmelt-dominated regions. This study evaluates the temporal evolution of snow water equivalent (SWE) for the February-April spring period using the GlobSnow observation dataset for the 1980-2012 period. The analysis is performed for different regions of hemispherical to sub-continental scales for the Northern Hemisphere. The detection-attribution analysis is then performed to demonstrate anthropogenic and natural effects on spring SWE changes for different regions, by comparing observations with six CMIP5 model simulations for three different external forcings: all major anthropogenic and natural (ALL) forcings, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only, and natural forcing only. The observed spring SWE generally displays a decreasing trend, due to increasing spring temperatures. However, it exhibits a remarkable increasing trend for the southern parts of East Eurasia. The six CMIP5 models with ALL forcings reproduce well the observed spring SWE decreases at the hemispherical scale and continental scales, whereas important differences are noted for smaller regions such as southern and northern parts of East Eurasia and northern part of North America. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are clearly detected for the spring SWE decline at the hemispherical scale, based on multi-model ensemble signals. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings, however, are less clear for the smaller regions or with single-model signals, indicating the large uncertainty in regional SWE changes, possibly due to stronger influence of natural climate variability.

Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation.

PubMed

Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dobson, Andy P; Dhiman, Ramesh; Srivastava, Harish C; Pascual, Mercedes

2011-07-14

Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifically address whether irrigation has decreased the coupling between malaria incidence and climate variability, and whether this reflects (1) a breakdown of NDVI as a useful indicator of risk, (2) a weakening of rainfall forcing and a concomitant decrease in epidemic risk, or (3) an increase in the control of malaria transmission. The predictive power of NDVI is compared against that of rainfall, using simple linear models and wavelet analysis to study the association of NDVI and malaria variability in the time and in the frequency domain respectively. The results show that irrigation dampens the influence of climate forcing on the magnitude and frequency of malaria epidemics and, therefore, reduces their predictability. At low irrigation levels, this decoupling reflects a breakdown of local but not regional NDVI as an indicator of rainfall forcing. At higher levels of irrigation, the weakened role of climate variability may be compounded by increased levels of control; nevertheless this leads to no significant decrease in the actual risk of disease. This implies that irrigation can lead to more endemic conditions for malaria, creating the potential for unexpectedly large epidemics in response to excess rainfall if these climatic events coincide with a relaxation of control over time. The implications of our findings for control policies of epidemic malaria in arid regions are discussed.

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandford, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Climate mitigation is not the only benefit of a national energy system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clack, C.

2016-12-01

Many speculate that the main driving force for a continental scale energy system is for climate mitigation. While this is a strong driver, there are multiple co-benefits that emerge from such a transition when purely driven by costs. These components could be managed within a planned system to provide a close-to-optimal solution that enhances the probability of realization. It is shown that these co-benefits of a continental scale electric system occur at costs lower than existing ones. That means there are multiple additional savings without extra costs or effort. The disadvantage is coordination between large geographic regions that could cause more complexity in planning. The main finding from different versions of the NEWS simulator is that carbon mitigation is enhanced by larger systems. In addition, there are increased jobs, reduced water consumption, Sulphur dioxide emissions, Nitrogen oxide emissions, a more distributed electric system and a lower cost of electricity.

The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

2012-01-01

In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) may interact with monsoon dynamics to produce feedback effects on the atmospheric water cycle, leading to in accelerated melting of snowpacks over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, and subsequent changes in evolution of the pre-monsoon and peak monsoon rainfall, moisture and wind distributions in South Asia and East Asia.

Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoui, Lahouari

2012-01-01

Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction.

PubMed

Brander, K M

2010-11-01

Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine the causes. Investigation of cod Gadus morhua populations across the whole North Atlantic Ocean has shown large-scale patterns of change in productivity due to lower individual growth and condition, caused by large-scale climate forcing. If a population is being heavily exploited then a drop in productivity can push it into decline unless the level of fishing is reduced: the idea of a stable carrying capacity is a dangerous myth. Overexploitation can be avoided by keeping fishing mortality low and by monitoring and responding rapidly to changes in productivity. There are signs that this lesson has been learned and that G. morhua will continue to be a mainstay of the human diet. © 2010 The Author. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Hemispherically Asymmetric Volcanic Forcing of Tropical Hydroclimate During the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colose, Christopher M.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

2016-01-01

Volcanic aerosols exert the most important natural radiative forcing of the last millennium. State-of-the-art paleoclimate simulations of this interval are typically forced with diverse spatial patterns of volcanic forcing, leading to different responses in tropical hydroclimate. Recently, theoretical considerations relating the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to the demands of global energy balance have emerged in the literature, allowing for a connection to be made between the paleoclimate simulations and recent developments in the understanding of ITCZ dynamics. These energetic considerations aid in explaining the well-known historical, paleoclimatic, and modeling evidence that the ITCZ migrates away from the hemisphere that is energetically deficient in response to asymmetric forcing. Here we use two separate general circulation model (GCM) suites of experiments for the last millennium to relate the ITCZ position to asymmetries in prescribed volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere and related asymmetric radiative forcing. We discuss the ITCZ shift in the context of atmospheric energetics and discuss the ramifications of transient ITCZ migrations for other sensitive indicators of changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle, including global streamflow. For the first time, we also offer insight into the large-scale fingerprint of water isotopologues in precipitation (delta sup 18 Op) in response to asymmetries in radiative forcing. The ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with greater volcanic forcing. Since the isotopic composition of precipitation in the ITCZ is relatively depleted compared to areas outside this zone, this meridional precipitation migration results in a large-scale enrichment (depletion) in the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation in regions the ITCZ moves away from (toward). Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of the spatial structure of volcanic forcing for interpreting volcanic signals in proxy records and therefore in evaluating the skill of Common Era climate model output.

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This work demonstrates the importance of land use in shaping future patterns of climate change, both globally and regionally.

Exotic ecosystems: where root disease is not a beneficial component of temperate conifer forests

Treesearch

William J. Otrosina

2003-01-01

Forest tree species and ecosystems ahve evolved under climatic, geological, and biological forces over eons of time. The present flora represents the sum of these selective forces that have acted upon ancestral and modern species. Adaptations to climatic factors, soils, insects, diseases, and a host of disturbance events, operating at a variety of scales, ahve forged...

Investigating the Climatic Impacts of Globally Shifted Anthropogenic Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Jiang, J. H.; Su, H.

2014-12-01

With a quasi-exponential growth in industrialization since the mid-1990s, Asia has undergone a dramatic increase in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol and precursor gases to the atmosphere. Meanwhile, such emissions have been stabilized or reduced over North America and Europe. This geographical shift of global emission sources could potentially perturb the regional and global climate due to impact of aerosols on cloud properties, precipitation, and large-scale circulation. We use an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with different aerosol scenarios to investigate the radiative and microphysical effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the large-scale circulation and regional climate over the globe. We conduct experiments to simulate the continental shift of aerosol distribution by contrasting two simulations using 1970 and 2010 anthropogenic emission sources. We found the elevation of aerosol concentrations in East and South Asia results in regional surface temperature cooling of -0.10° to -0.17°C, respectively, due to the enhanced solar extinction by aerosols and cloud reflectivity. The reduction of the local aerosol loadings in Europe causes a significant warming of +0.4°C. However, despite recent decreasing in aerosol emission, North America shows a cooling of -0.13°C, likely caused by increasing of cloudiness under the influence of modulated general circulation. These aerosol induced temperature changes are consistent with the observed temperature trends from 1980 to 2013 in the reanalysis data. Our study also predicts weaker East/South Asia summer monsoons due to strong regional aerosol forcing. Moreover, the ascending motion in the northern tropics is found to be weakened by asymmetrical aerosol forcing, resulting in the cross-equatorial shift of Hadley Circulation.

MEGAPOLI: concept and first results of multi-scale modelling of megacity impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A. A.; Lawrence, M.; Pandis, S.

2009-09-01

The European FP7 project MEGAPOLI: ‘Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation' (http://megapoli.info), started in October 2008, brings together 27 leading European research groups from 11 countries, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from countries outside Europe to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The main MEGAPOLI objectives are: 1. to assess impacts of megacities and large air-pollution hot-spots on local, regional and global air quality, 2. to quantify feedbacks among megacity air quality, local and regional climate, and global climate change, 3. to develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities. In order to achieve these objectives the following tasks are realizing: • Develop and evaluate integrated methods to improve megacity emission data, • Investigate physical and chemical processes starting from the megacity street level, continuing to the city, regional and global scales, • Assess regional and global air quality impacts of megacity plumes, • Determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity plumes, • Assess global megacity pollutant forcing on climate, • Examine feedback mechanisms including effects of climate change on megacity air quality, • Develop integrated tools for prediction of megacity air quality, • Evaluate these integrated tools and use them in case studies, • Develop a methodology to estimate the impacts of different scenarios of megacity development on human health and climate change, • Propose and assess mitigation options to reduce the impacts of megacity emissions. We follow a pyramid strategy of undertaking detailed measurements in one European major city, Paris, performing detailed analysis for 12 megacities with existing air quality datasets and investigate the effects of all megacities on climate and global atmospheric chemistry. The project focuses on the multi-scale modelling of interacting meteorology and air quality, spanning the range from emissions to air quality, effects on climate, and feedbacks and mitigation potentials. Our hypothesis is that megacities around the world have an impact on air quality not only locally, but also regionally and globally and therefore can also influence the climate of our planet. Some of the links between megacities, air quality and climate are reasonably well-understood. However, a complete quantitative picture of these interactions is clearly missing. Understanding and quantifying these missing links is the focus of MEGAPOLI. The current status and modeling results after the first project year on examples of Paris and other European megacities are discussed.

Climate and litter quality differently modulate the effects of soil fauna on litter decomposition across biomes

PubMed Central

García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T.; Kattge, Jens; Wall, Diana H.

2015-01-01

Climate and litter quality have been identified as major drivers of litter decomposition at large spatial scales. However, the role played by soil fauna remains largely unknown, despite its importance for litter fragmentation and microbial activity. We synthesized litterbag studies to quantify the effect sizes of soil fauna on litter decomposition rates at the global and biome scales, and to assess how climate, litter quality and soil fauna interact to determine such rates. Soil fauna consistently enhanced litter decomposition at both global and biome scales (average increment ~27%). However, climate and litter quality differently modulated the effects of soil fauna on decomposition rates between biomes, from climate-driven biomes to those where climate effects were mediated by changes in litter quality. Our results advocate for the inclusion of biome-specific soil fauna effects on litter decomposition as a mean to reduce the unexplained variation in large-scale decomposition models. PMID:23763716

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang

Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very widemore » range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.« less

The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, R. A.; Cox, P. M.; Collins, M.; Harris, P. P.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C. D.

A suite of simulations with the HadCM3LC coupled climate-carbon cycle model is used to examine the various forcings and feedbacks involved in the simulated precipitation decrease and forest dieback. Rising atmospheric CO2 is found to contribute 20% to the precipitation reduction through the physiological forcing of stomatal closure, with 80% of the reduction being seen when stomatal closure was excluded and only radiative forcing by CO2 was included. The forest dieback exerts two positive feedbacks on the precipitation reduction; a biogeophysical feedback through reduced forest cover suppressing local evaporative water recycling, and a biogeochemical feedback through the release of CO2 contributing to an accelerated global warming. The precipitation reduction is enhanced by 20% by the biogeophysical feedback, and 5% by the carbon cycle feedback from the forest dieback. This analysis helps to explain why the Amazonian precipitation reduction simulated by HadCM3LC is more extreme than that simulated in other GCMs; in the fully-coupled, climate-carbon cycle simulation, approximately half of the precipitation reduction in Amazonia is attributable to a combination of physiological forcing and biogeophysical and global carbon cycle feedbacks, which are generally not included in other GCM simulations of future climate change. The analysis also demonstrates the potential contribution of regional-scale climate and ecosystem change to uncertainties in global CO2 and climate change projections. Moreover, the importance of feedbacks suggests that a human-induced increase in forest vulnerability to climate change may have implications for regional and global scale climate sensitivity.

Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot

PubMed Central

Webb, Thomas J; Gaston, Kevin J; Hannah, Lee; Ian Woodward, F

2005-01-01

The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest–rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 101–104 km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 103 km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 103 km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation. PMID:16608697

Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot.

PubMed

Webb, Thomas J; Gaston, Kevin J; Hannah, Lee; Ian Woodward, F

2006-03-22

The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest-rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 10(1)-10(4) km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 10(3) km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 10(3) km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation.

Climate-scale modelling of suspended sediment load in an Alpine catchment debris flow (Rio Cordon-northeastern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diodato, Nazzareno; Mao, Luca; Borrelli, Pasquale; Panagos, Panos; Fiorillo, Francesco; Bellocchi, Gianni

2018-05-01

Pulsing storms and prolonged rainfall can drive hydrological damaging events in mountain regions with soil erosion and debris flow in river catchments. The paper presents a parsimonious model for estimating climate forcing on sediment loads in an Alpine catchment (Rio Cordon, northeastern Italian Alps). Hydroclimatic forcing was interpreted by the novel CliSMSSL (Climate-Scale Modelling of Suspended Sediment Load) model to estimate annual sediment loads. We used annual data on suspended-solid loads monitored at an experimental station from 1987 to 2001 and on monthly precipitation data. The quality of sediment load data was critically examined, and one outlying year was identified and removed from further analyses. This outlier revealed that our model underestimates exceptionally high sediment loads in years characterized by a severe flood event. For all other years, the CliSMSSL performed well, with a determination coefficient (R2) equal to 0.67 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 129 Mg y-1. The calibrated model for the period 1986-2010 was used to reconstruct sediment loads in the river catchment for historical times when detailed precipitation records are not available. For the period 1810-2010, the model results indicate that the past centuries have been characterized by large interannual to interdecadal fluctuations in the conditions affecting sediment loads. This paper argues that climate-induced erosion processes in Alpine areas and their impact on environment should be given more attention in discussions about climate-driven strategies. Future work should focus on delineating the extents of these findings (e.g., at other catchments of the European Alpine belt) as well as investigating the dynamics for the formation of sediment loads.

Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate.

PubMed

Spracklen, Dominick V; Bonn, Boris; Carslaw, Kenneth S

2008-12-28

Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm(-3)). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between -1.8 and -6.7 W m(-2) of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow-vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.

The volcanic double event at the dawn of the Dark Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toohey, Matthew; Sigl, Michael; Krüger, Kirstin; Stordal, Frode; Svensen, Henrik

2016-04-01

Documentary records report dimming of the sun by a mysterious dust cloud covering Europe for 12-18 months in 536-537 CE, which was followed by a general climatic downturn and global societal decline. Tree rings and other climate proxies have corroborated the occurrence of this event as well as characterized its extent and duration, but failed to trace its origin. New volcanic timeseries, based on a multi-disciplinary approach that integrates novel, global-scale time markers with state-of-the-art continuous ice core aerosol measurements, automated objective ice-core layer counting, tephra analyses, and detailed examination of historical archives, show unequivocally that the 536-540 climate anomaly was concurrent with two or more major volcanic eruptions, with the largest eruptions likely occurring in the years 536 and 540 CE. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from the 536/540 CE eruption sequence. Comparing with existing reconstructions of the volcanic forcing over the past 1200 years, we estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic "double event" was larger than that of any known period. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing are used to explore the temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the eruptions, and compared to available proxy records, including maximum latewood density (MXD) temperature reconstructions. Special attention is placed on the decadal persistence of the cooling signal in tree rings, and whether the climate model simulations reproduce such long-term climate anomalies. Finally, the climate model results are used to explore the probability of socioeconomic crisis resulting directly from the volcanic radiative forcing in different regions of the world.

Compounded effects of heat waves and droughts over the Western Electricity Grid: spatio-temporal scales of impacts and predictability toward mitigation and adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Kintner-Meyer, M.; Skaggs, R.; Xie, Y.; Wu, D.; Nguyen, T. B.; Fu, T.; Zhou, T.

2016-12-01

Heat waves and droughts are projected to be more frequent and intense. We have seen in the past the effects of each of those extreme climate events on electricity demand and constrained electricity generation, challenging power system operations. Our aim here is to understand the compounding effects under historical conditions. We present a benchmark of Western US grid performance under 55 years of historical climate, and including droughts, using 2010-level of water demand and water management infrastructure, and 2010-level of electricity grid infrastructure and operations. We leverage CMIP5 historical hydrology simulations and force a large scale river routing- reservoir model with 2010-level sectoral water demands. The regulated flow at each water-dependent generating plants is processed to adjust water-dependent electricity generation parameterization in a production cost model, that represents 2010-level power system operations with hourly energy demand of 2010. The resulting benchmark includes a risk distribution of several grid performance metrics (unserved energy, production cost, carbon emission) as a function of inter-annual variability in regional water availability and predictability using large scale climate oscillations. In the second part of the presentation, we describe an approach to map historical heat waves onto this benchmark grid performance using a building energy demand model. The impact of the heat waves, combined with the impact of droughts, is explored at multiple scales to understand the compounding effects. Vulnerabilities of the power generation and transmission systems are highlighted to guide future adaptation.

nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Andrews, Timothy; Chadwick, Robin; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Lowe, Jason A.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2016-11-01

nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: (1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g. change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to the present day), or (2) to understand the state dependence (non-linearity) of climate change - i.e. why doubling the forcing may not double the response. State dependence (non-linearity) of responses can be large at regional scales, with important implications for understanding mechanisms and for general circulation model (GCM) emulation techniques (e.g. energy balance models and pattern-scaling methods). However, these processes are hard to explore using traditional experiments, which explains why they have had so little attention in previous studies. Some single model studies have established novel analysis principles and some physical mechanisms. There is now a need to explore robustness and uncertainty in such mechanisms across a range of models (point 2 above), and, more broadly, to focus work on understanding the response to CO2 on climate states relevant to specific policy/science questions (point 1). nonlinMIP addresses this using a simple, small set of CO2-forced experiments that are able to separate linear and non-linear mechanisms cleanly, with a good signal-to-noise ratio - while being demonstrably traceable to realistic transient scenarios. The design builds on the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) protocols, and is centred around a suite of instantaneous atmospheric CO2 change experiments, with a ramp-up-ramp-down experiment to test traceability to gradual forcing scenarios. In all cases the models are intended to be used with CO2 concentrations rather than CO2 emissions as the input. The understanding gained will help interpret the spread in policy-relevant scenario projections. Here we outline the basic physical principles behind nonlinMIP, and the method of establishing traceability from abruptCO2 to gradual forcing experiments, before detailing the experimental design, and finally some analysis principles. The test of traceability from abruptCO2 to transient experiments is recommended as a standard analysis within the CMIP5 and CMIP6 DECK protocols.

Developing Present-day Proxy Cases Based on NARVAL Data for Investigating Low Level Cloud Responses to Future Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, Stephanie

2017-04-01

The energy budget of the entire global climate is significantly influenced by the presence of boundary layer clouds. The main aim of the High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2) project is to improve climate model predictions by means of process studies of clouds and precipitation. This study makes use of observed elevated moisture layers as a proxy of future changes in tropospheric humidity. The associated impact on radiative transfer triggers fast responses in boundary layer clouds, providing a framework for investigating this phenomenon. The investigation will be carried out using data gathered during the Next-generation Aircraft Remote-sensing for VALidation (NARVAL) South campaigns. Observational data will be combined with ECMWF reanalysis data to derive the large scale forcings for the Large Eddy Simulations (LES). Simulations will be generated for a range of elevated moisture layers, spanning a multi-dimensional phase space in depth, amplitude, elevation, and cloudiness. The NARVAL locations will function as anchor-points. The results of the large eddy simulations and the observations will be studied and compared in an attempt to determine how simulated boundary layer clouds react to changes in radiative transfer from the free troposphere. Preliminary LES results will be presented and discussed.

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.

2014-01-01

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

Comparison of a species distribution model and a process model from a hierarchical perspective to quantify effects of projected climate change on tree species

Treesearch

Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser

2015-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to...

Beach Nourishment Dynamics in a Coupled Large-Scale Coastal Change and Economic Optimization Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Murray, B.; Smith, M.

2008-12-01

Global climate change is predicted to have significant consequences for shoreline evolution from both sea level rise and changing wave climates. Because many coastal communities actively defend against erosion, changing environmental conditions will influence rates of nourishment. Over large coastal regions, including many towns, the anticipated future rate of nourishment is assumed to be proportional to the expected evolution of the shoreline in the region. This view neglects the possibility of strong coupling between the spatial patterns of nourishment and the distribution of property values within the region. To explore the impact of this coupling, we present a numerical model that incorporates the physical forces of alongshore sediment transport and erosion due to sea level rise as well as the economic forces that drive beach replenishment including the economic benefits of enhanced or maintained beach width and the costs of replenishing. Results are presented for a Carolina-like coastline and show how natural shoreline change rates are altered as the wave climate changes (because of changing storm behaviors). Results also show that the nourishment rate is conserved for varying property value distributions when the nourishment cost is unrelated to past nourishment and, in contrast, increasing nourishment cost as available sand for nourishment is depleted causes strong coupling between the property value distribution and erosion patterns. This strong coupling significantly alters the rate of nourishment and hence the depletion of available sand for nourishing.

The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change

PubMed Central

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

2000-01-01

Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing. PMID:10725399

Distribution and radiative forcing of Asian dust and anthropogenic aerosols from East Asia simulated by SPRINTARS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemura, T.; Nakajima, T.; Uno, I.

2002-12-01

A three-dimensional aerosol transport-radiation model, SPRINTARS (Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species), has been developed based on an atmospheric general circulation model of the Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo/National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan to research the effects of aerosols on the climate system and atmospheric environment. SPRINTARS successfully simulates the long-range transport of the large-scale Asian dust storms from East Asia to North America by crossing the North Pacific Ocean in springtime 2001 and 2002. It is found from the calculated dust optical thickness that 10 to 20% of Asian dust around Japan reached North America. The simulation also reveals the importance of anthropogenic aerosols, which are carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols emitted from the industrialized areas in the East Asian continent, to air turbidity during the large-scale Asian dust storms. The simulated results are compared with a volume of observation data regarding the aerosol characteristics over East Asia in the spring of 2001 acquired by the intensive observation campaigns of ACE-Asia (Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment) and APEX (Asian Atmospheric Particulate Environmental Change Studies). The comparisons are carried out not only for aerosol concentrations but also for aerosol optical properties, such as optical thickness, Angstrom exponent which is a size index calculated by the log-slope exponent of the optical thickness between two wavelengths, and single scattering albedo. The consistence of Angstrom exponent between the simulation and observations means the reasonable simulation of the ratio of anthropogenic aerosols to Asian dust, which supports the suggestion by the simulation on the importance of anthropogenic aerosols to air turbidity during the large-scale Asian dust storms. SPRINTARS simultaneously calculates the aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. The direct radiative forcing of Asian dust at the tropopause is negative over ocean, on the other hand, positive over deserts, snow, and sea ice in the clear-sky condition. The simulation also shows that it depends not only on aerosol mass concentrations but also on the vertical profiles of aerosols and cloud water.

Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2017-10-01

The spectral characteristics of paleoclimate observations spanning the last millennium suggest the presence of significant low-frequency (multi-decadal to centennial scale) variability in the climate system. Since this low-frequency climate variability is critical for climate predictions on societally-relevant scales, it is essential to establish whether General Circulation models (GCMs) are able to simulate it faithfully. Recent studies find large discrepancies between models and paleoclimate data at low frequencies, prompting concerns surrounding the ability of GCMs to predict long-term, high-magnitude variability under greenhouse forcing (Laepple and Huybers, 2014a, 2014b). However, efforts to ground climate model simulations directly in paleoclimate observations are impeded by fundamental differences between models and the proxy data: proxy systems often record a multivariate and/or nonlinear response to climate, precluding a direct comparison to GCM output. In this paper we bridge this gap via a forward proxy modeling approach, coupled to an isotope-enabled GCM. This allows us to disentangle the various contributions to signals embedded in ice cores, speleothem calcite, coral aragonite, tree-ring width, and tree-ring cellulose. The paper addresses the following questions: (1) do forward-modeled ;pseudoproxies; exhibit variability comparable to proxy data? (2) if not, which processes alter the shape of the spectrum of simulated climate variability, and are these processes broadly distinguishable from climate? We apply our method to representative case studies, and broaden these insights with an analysis of the PAGES2k database (PAGES2K Consortium, 2013). We find that current proxy system models (PSMs) can help resolve model-data discrepancies on interannual to decadal timescales, but cannot account for the mismatch in variance on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. We conclude that, specific to this set of PSMs and isotope-enabled model, the paleoclimate record may exhibit larger low-frequency variability than GCMs currently simulate, indicative of incomplete physics and/or forcings.

Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)

An Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-flux (EDMF) closure for the unified representation of cloud and convective processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Schneider, T.; Teixeira, J.; Lam, R.; Pressel, K. G.

2014-12-01

Sub-grid scale (SGS) closures in current climate models are usually decomposed into several largely independent parameterization schemes for different cloud and convective processes, such as boundary layer turbulence, shallow convection, and deep convection. These separate parameterizations usually do not converge as the resolution is increased or as physical limits are taken. This makes it difficult to represent the interactions and smooth transition among different cloud and convective regimes. Here we present an eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) closure that represents all sub-grid scale turbulent, convective, and cloud processes in a unified parameterization scheme. The buoyant updrafts and precipitative downdrafts are parameterized with a prognostic multiple-plume mass-flux (MF) scheme. The prognostic term for the mass flux is kept so that the life cycles of convective plumes are better represented. The interaction between updrafts and downdrafts are parameterized with the buoyancy-sorting model. The turbulent mixing outside plumes is represented by eddy diffusion, in which eddy diffusivity (ED) is determined from a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) calculated from a TKE balance that couples the environment with updrafts and downdrafts. Similarly, tracer variances are decomposed consistently between updrafts, downdrafts and the environment. The closure is internally coupled with a probabilistic cloud scheme and a simple precipitation scheme. We have also developed a relatively simple two-stream radiative scheme that includes the longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) effects of clouds, and the LW effect of water vapor. We have tested this closure in a single-column model for various regimes spanning stratocumulus, shallow cumulus, and deep convection. The model is also run towards statistical equilibrium with climatologically relevant large-scale forcings. These model tests are validated against large-eddy simulation (LES) with the same forcings. The comparison of results verifies the capacity of this closure to realistically represent different cloud and convective processes. Implementation of the closure in an idealized GCM allows us to study cloud feedbacks to climate change and to study the interactions between clouds, convections, and the large-scale circulation.

An intercomparison of GCM and RCM dynamical downscaling for characterizing the hydroclimatology of California and Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Rhoades, A.; Johansen, H.; Ullrich, P. A.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

Dynamical downscaling is widely used to properly characterize regional surface heterogeneities that shape the local hydroclimatology. However, the factors in dynamical downscaling, including the refinement of model horizontal resolution, large-scale forcing datasets and dynamical cores, have not been fully evaluated. Two cutting-edge global-to-regional downscaling methods are used to assess these, specifically the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) and the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, under different horizontal resolutions (28, 14, and 7 km). Two groups of WRF simulations are driven by either the NCEP reanalysis dataset (WRF_NCEP) or VR-CESM outputs (WRF_VRCESM) to evaluate the effects of the large-scale forcing datasets. The impacts of dynamical core are assessed by comparing the VR-CESM simulations to the coupled WRF_VRCESM simulations with the same physical parameterizations and similar grid domains. The simulated hydroclimatology (i.e., total precipitation, snow cover, snow water equivalent and surface temperature) are compared with the reference datasets. The large-scale forcing datasets are critical to the WRF simulations in more accurately simulating total precipitation, SWE and snow cover, but not surface temperature. Both the WRF and VR-CESM results highlight that no significant benefit is found in the simulated hydroclimatology by just increasing horizontal resolution refinement from 28 to 7 km. Simulated surface temperature is sensitive to the choice of dynamical core. WRF generally simulates higher temperatures than VR-CESM, alleviates the systematic cold bias of DJF temperatures over the California mountain region, but overestimates the JJA temperature in California's Central Valley.

Climate-driven increase in the variability and multi-year mean level of severe thunderstorm-related losses and thunderstorm forcing environments in the U.S. since 1970

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, Julia; Eichner, Jan; Faust, Eberhard; Steuer, Markus

2013-04-01

In the year 2011, direct losses from thunderstorms reached US 26 billion (insured) and US 47 billion (economic), thus equalling the dimension of losses caused by Hurricane Sandy in the New York area 2012. Beyond doubt the 2011 damages had outlier characteristics due to two cities hit by tornadoes. Nonetheless a substantial increase in the variability of normalised direct economic and insured severe thunderstorm-related losses in the U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains over the period 1970-2009 (March - September) has been detected. Besides the annual variability, also the multi-year mean level of losses has strongly increased. Our study focused on sizeable severe thunderstorm events causing at least US 250 million in normalized economic losses. The high threshold guarantees homogeneity over time, because those events regularly covered several states and thus are very unlikely to have been missed at any time due to reporting variability. To shed light on the question whether the strong increase was driven by an external climate driver, the time series of normalized losses (annual counts and annual loss aggregate) was correlated with the time series of thunderstorm forcing environments. The latter were inferred from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and comprise 6-hourly CAPE and vertical wind shear data combined to form a variable called Thunderstorm Severity Potential (TSP). From the notable correlation found between the time series of normalized thunderstorm-related losses and meteorologically registered thunderstorm forcing environments (TSP) it could be inferred that climate was the dominant driver for the increase in variability and average level of thunderstorm-related losses over the period 1970-2009. An important component in the rise of TSP over time could be identified in CAPE, as we found a substantial rise in the annual number of exceedances of a high CAPE threshold in the reanalysis data. Recent studies imply that the changes observed in our study, particularly regarding an increase in high-level CAPE environments, are consistent with the modelled effects of anthropogenic climate change. The physical chain of climate change-driven increasing levels of specific humidity (Willett et al. 2010) leading to rising levels of CAPE as one of the preconditions of more severe thunderstorm forcing environments has already been established by measurements and climate model experiments (Trapp et al. 2007, 2009). Literature: Sander, J., J. Eichner, E. Faust, and M.Steuer, 2012: Rising variability in thunderstorm-related U.S. losses as a reflection of changes in large-scale thunderstorm forcing, submitted paper. Trapp, R. J., N. S. Diffenbaugh, H. E. Brooks, M. E. Baldwin, E. D. Robinson, and J. S. Pal, 2007: Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 104, 19719-19723. Trapp, R. J., N. S. Diffenbaugh, and A. Gluhovsky, 2009: Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01703, 6 pp., doi:10.1029/2008GL036203. Willett, K. M., P. D. Jones, P. W. Thorne, and N. P. Gillett, 2010: A comparison of large scale changes in surface humidity over land in observations and CMIP3 general circulation models. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025210, 13pp., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025210.

Centennial-scale winter climate variability over the last two millennia in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on paired δ18O and Mg/Ca in Globorotalia truncatulinoides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortiz, V.; Thirumalai, K.; Richey, J. N.; Quinn, T. M.

2014-12-01

We present a replicated record of paired foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca variations in multi-cores collected from the Garrison Basin (26º43'N, 93º55'W) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Using δ18O (sea surface temperature, SST; sea surface salinity, SSS proxy) and Mg/Ca (SST proxy) variations in non-encrusted planktic foraminifer Globorotalia truncatulinoides we produce time series spanning the last two millennia that is characterized by centennial-scale climate variability. We interpret geochemical variations in G. truncatulinoides to reflect winter climate variability because data from a sediment trap, located ~350 km east of the core site, reveal that annual flux of G. truncatulinoides is heavily weighted towards winter (peak production in January-February; Spear et al., 2011). Similar centennial-scale variability is also observed in the foraminiferal geochemistry of Globigerinoides ruber in the same multi-cores, which likely reflect mean annual climate variations. Our replicated results and comparisons to other SST reconstructions from the region lend confidence that the northern GOM surface ocean underwent large, centennial-scale variability, most likely dominated by changes in winter climate. This variability occurred in a time period where climate forcing is small and background conditions are similar to pre-industrial times. References: Spear, J.W.; Poore, R.Z., and Quinn, T.M., 2011, Globorotalia truncatulinoides (dextral) Mg/Ca as a proxy for Gulf of Mexico winter mixed-layer temperature: Evidence from a sediment trap in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine Micropaleontology, 80, 53-61.

Are there interactive effects of physiological and radiative forcing produced by increased CO2 concentration on changes of land hydrological cycle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Dong, Wenjie

2014-01-01

Three coupled climate-carbon cycle models including CESM (Community Earth System Model), CanEsm (the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model) and BCC (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model) were used to estimate whether changes in land hydrological cycle responded to the interactive effects of CO2-physiological forcing and CO2-radiative forcing. No signs could be indicated that the interactive effects of CO2-physiological forcing and CO2-radiative forcing on the hydrological variables (e.g. precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff) were detected at global and regional scales. For each model, increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff (e.g. 0.37, 0.18 and 0.25 mm/year2) were simulated in response to CO2-radiative forcing (experiment M3). Decreases in precipitation and evapotranspiration (about - 0.02 and - 0.09 mm/year2) were captured if the CO2 physiological effect was only accounted for (experiment M2). In this experiment, a reverse sign in runoff (the increase of 0.08 mm/year2) in contrast to M3 is presented. All models simulated the same signs across Eastern Asia in response to the CO2 physiological forcing and radiative forcing: increases in precipitation and evapotranspiration only considering greenhouse effect; reductions in precipitation and evapotranspiration in response to CO2-physiological effect; and enhanced trends in runoff from all experiments. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of the effect of transpiration on runoff (decreased transpiration accounting for 8% to 250% of the increased runoff) from the three models. Two models (CanEsm and BCC) attributed most of the increase in runoff to the decrease in transpiration if the CO2-physiological effect was only accounted for, whereas CESM exhibited that the decrease in transpiration could not totally explain the increase in runoff. The attribution of the CO2-physiological forcing to changes in stomatal conductance versus changes in vegetation structure (e.g. increased Leaf Area Index) is an issue to discuss, and among the three models, no agreement appeared.

Active Climate Stabilization: Practical Physics-Based Approaches to Prevention of Climate Change

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Teller, E.; Hyde, T.; Wood, L.

2002-04-18

We offer a case for active technical management of the radiative forcing of the temperatures of the Earth's fluid envelopes, rather than administrative management of atmospheric greenhouse gas inputs, in order to stabilize both the global- and time-averaged climate and its mesoscale features. We suggest that active management of radiative forcing entails negligible--indeed, likely strongly negative--economic costs and environmental impacts, and thus best complies with the pertinent mandate of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We propose that such approaches be swiftly evaluated in sub-scale in the course of an intensive international program.

The effect of large-scale model time step and multiscale coupling frequency on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall extremes in a superparameterized GCM

DOE PAGES

Yu, Sungduk; Pritchard, Michael S.

2015-12-17

The effect of global climate model (GCM) time step—which also controls how frequently global and embedded cloud resolving scales are coupled—is examined in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model ver 3.0. Systematic bias reductions of time-mean shortwave cloud forcing (~10 W/m 2) and longwave cloud forcing (~5 W/m 2) occur as scale coupling frequency increases, but with systematically increasing rainfall variance and extremes throughout the tropics. An overarching change in the vertical structure of deep tropical convection, favoring more bottom-heavy deep convection as a global model time step is reduced may help orchestrate these responses. The weak temperature gradient approximation ismore » more faithfully satisfied when a high scale coupling frequency (a short global model time step) is used. These findings are distinct from the global model time step sensitivities of conventionally parameterized GCMs and have implications for understanding emergent behaviors of multiscale deep convective organization in superparameterized GCMs. Lastly, the results may also be useful for helping to tune them.« less

The effect of large-scale model time step and multiscale coupling frequency on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall extremes in a superparameterized GCM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Sungduk; Pritchard, Michael S.

The effect of global climate model (GCM) time step—which also controls how frequently global and embedded cloud resolving scales are coupled—is examined in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model ver 3.0. Systematic bias reductions of time-mean shortwave cloud forcing (~10 W/m 2) and longwave cloud forcing (~5 W/m 2) occur as scale coupling frequency increases, but with systematically increasing rainfall variance and extremes throughout the tropics. An overarching change in the vertical structure of deep tropical convection, favoring more bottom-heavy deep convection as a global model time step is reduced may help orchestrate these responses. The weak temperature gradient approximation ismore » more faithfully satisfied when a high scale coupling frequency (a short global model time step) is used. These findings are distinct from the global model time step sensitivities of conventionally parameterized GCMs and have implications for understanding emergent behaviors of multiscale deep convective organization in superparameterized GCMs. Lastly, the results may also be useful for helping to tune them.« less

Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support our hypothesis. That is, the change of vegetation in space and time may be better understood when modelling vegetation change as both a dynamic and multivariate process. Therefore, future research will focus on a multivariate dynamical spatio-temporal modelling approach. This ongoing research is performed within the context of the project "Global impacts of hydrological and climatic extremes on vegetation" (project acronym: SAT-EX) which is part of the Belgian research programme for Earth Observation Stereo III.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons

2010-11-16

Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve amore » climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.« less

Dynamics of premelted liquid films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worster, Grae

2005-11-01

On small scales, surface tension forces are enormously powerful. When such forces act on every grain of a fine soil, they can move mountains, quite literally, in a process called frost heave. In fact, it is not surface tension per se but the intermolecular forces that underlie surface tension that also cause frost heave in partially solidified soils. In detail, these forces cause the premelting of solids. For example, at temperatures below 0^oC, water is solid (ice) in bulk but remains liquid in thin films adjacent to surfaces in contact with many other materials, such as silica. The intermolecular forces, such as the van der Waals force, acting between the materials on either side of an interface can cause interfacial premelting and simultaneously produce a strong normal stress across the premelted film. Whether these stresses cause large-scale motions relies significantly on the fluid mechanics of the microscopic films. I shall introduce the fundamental thermodynamic principles of premelting and illustrate its fluid mechanical consequences with simple theoretical models and experimental results. Applications of these ideas include the rejection of particulate matter during solidification, with consequences for the fabrication of composite materials, the freezing of colloidal suspensions, with consequences for the cryopreservation of biological systems, and the evolution of grain boundaries, with consequences for the redistribution of climate proxies sequestered in the Earth's ice sheets.

The influence of Seychelles Dome on the large scale Tropical Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; Selten, Frank; Hazeleger, Wilco

2013-04-01

The Seychelles Dome (SD) is the thermocline ridge just South of the equator in the Western Indian Ocean basin. It is characterized by strong atmospheric convection and a shallow thermocline and is associated with large intraseasonal convection and SST variability (Harrison and Vecchi 2001). The SD is influenced by surface and subsurface processes, such as air-sea fluxes, Ekman upwelling from wind stress curl, ocean dynamics (vertical mixing) and oceanic Rossby waves from southeastern Indian Ocean. The favoring season for a strong SD is the boreal winter, where the thermocline is most shallow. Then the southeasterly trade winds converge with the northwesterly monsoonal winds over the intertropical convergence zone and cause cyclonic wind stress curl that drives Ekman divergence and a ridging of the thermocline. It is found that the subseasonal and interranual variability of the SD is influenced by large scale events, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (Tozuka et al., 2010, Lloyd and Vecchi, 2010). The SD is enhanced by cooling events in the Western Indian Ocean and easterly winds that raise the thermocline and increase the upwelling. This can be associated with a strong Walker circulation, like negative IOD conditions or La Nina-like conditions. So far the studies focus on the origins of the SD variability, but the influence of the SD itself on regional or large scale climate is largely unknown. In this study we focus on the influence of the SD variations on the large scale tropical circulation. We analyze the covariance of the SD variations and the tropical circulation in a 200 year control imulation of the climate model EC-EARTH and perform idealized SST forced simulations to study the character of the atmospheric response and its relation to ENSO, IOD and MJO. References -Harrison, D. E. and G. A. Vecchi, 2001: January 1999 Indian Ocean cooling event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3717-3720. -Lloyd, I. D., and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Submonthly Indian Ocean cooling events and their interaction with large-scale conditions. J. Climate, 23, 700-716. -Tozuka, T., T. Yokoi, and T. Yamagata, 2010: A modeling study of interannual variations of the Seychelles Dome. J. Geophys. Res., 115, C04005, doi:10.1029/2009JC005547.

On the climate impacts from the volcanic and solar forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varotsos, Costas A.; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

The observed and the modelled estimations show that the main forcings on the atmosphere are of volcanic and solar origins, which act however in an opposite way. The former can be very strong and decrease at short time scales, whereas, the latter increase with time scale. On the contrary, the observed fluctuations in temperatures increase at long scales (e.g. centennial and millennial), and the solar forcings do increase with scale. The common practice is to reduce forcings to radiative equivalents assuming that their combination is linear. In order to clarify the validity of the linearity assumption and determine its range of validity, we systematically compare the statistical properties of solar only, volcanic only and combined solar and volcanic forcings over the range of time scales from one to 1000 years. Additionally, we attempt to investigate plausible reasons for the discrepancies observed between the measured and modeled anomalies of tropospheric temperatures in the tropics. For this purpose, we analyse tropospheric temperature anomalies for both the measured and modeled time series. The results obtained show that the measured temperature fluctuations reveal white noise behavior, while the modeled ones exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the persistent signal, should be removed from the modeled values in order to achieve better agreement with observations. Keywords: Scaling, Nonlinear variability, Climate system, Solar radiation

Tropical Waves and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a 7-km Global Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holt, Laura A.; Alexander, M. Joan; Coy, Lawrence; Molod, Andrea; Putman, William; Pawson, Steven

2016-01-01

This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-year global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NRQBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NRQBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength,1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (,3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

Large-scale circulation patterns, instability factors and global precipitation modeling as influenced by external forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundel, A.; Kulikova, I.; Kruglova, E.; Muravev, A.

2003-04-01

The scope of the study is to estimate the relationship between large-scale circulation regimes, various instability indices and global precipitation with different boundary conditions, considered as external forcing. The experiments were carried out in the ensemble-prediction framework of the dynamic-statistical monthly forecast scheme run in the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia every ten days. The extension to seasonal intervals makes it necessary to investigate the role of slowly changing boundary conditions among which the sea surface temperature (SST) may be defined as the most effective factor. Continuous integrations of the global spectral T41L15 model for the whole year 2000 (starting from January 1) were performed with the climatic SST and the Reynolds Archive SSTs. Monthly values of the SST were projected on the year days using spline interpolation technique. First, the global precipitation values in experiments were compared to the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climate Program) daily observation data. Although the global mean precipitation is underestimated by the model, some large-scale regional amounts correspond to the real ones (e.g. for Europe) fairly well. On the whole, however, anomaly phases failed to be reproduced. The precipitation averaged over the whole land revealed a greater sensitivity to the SSTs than that over the oceans. The wavelet analysis was applied to separate the low- and high-frequency signal of the SST influence on the large-scale circulation and precipitation. A derivative of the Wallace-Gutzler teleconnection index for the East-Atlantic oscillation was taken as the circulation characteristic. The daily oscillation index values and precipitation amounts averaged over Europe were decomposed using wavelet approach with different “mother wavelets” up to approximation level 3. It was demonstrated that an increase in the precipitation amount over Europe was associated with the zonal flow intensification over the Northern Atlantic when the real SSTs were used. Blocking structures in the circulation caused decreasing precipitation amounts. The wavelet approach gave a more distinctive discrimination in the modeled circulation and precipitation patterns versus different external forcing than a number of other statistical techniques. Several atmospheric instability indices (e.g. the Phillips like parameters, Richardson number etc) were additionally used in post-processing for a more detailed validation of the modeled large-scale and total precipitation amounts. It was shown that a reasonable variety of instability indices must be used for such validations and for precipitation output corrections. Their statistical stability may be substantiated only on the ensemble modeling basis. This work was performed with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (02-05-64655).

Climate as an agent of change in forest landscapes

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2014-01-01

Climate is the primary force that controls forest composition and the broad-scale distribution of forests. The climate has always been changing, but the changes now underway are different—they are faster and they are intermingled with other disturbances promoted by increasing human pressures. The projected climate change during the twenty-first century will...

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie; Legrande, A. N.

2015-01-01

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

Multi-scale forcing and the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, G. X.; Liu, Y.; Zhu, X.; Li, W.; Ren, R.; Duan, A.; Liang, X.

2009-09-01

This study investigates three types of atmospheric forcing across the summertime subtropics that are shown to contribute in various ways to the occurrence of dry and wet climates in the subtropics. To explain the formation of desert over the western parts of continents and monsoon over the eastern parts, we propose a new mechanism of positive feedback between diabatic heating and vorticity generation that occurs via meridional advection of planetary vorticity and temperature. Monsoon and desert are demonstrated to coexist as twin features of multi-scale forcing, as follows. First, continent-scale heating over land and cooling over ocean induce the ascent of air over the eastern parts of continents and western parts of oceans, and descent over eastern parts of oceans and western parts of continents. Second, local-scale sea-breeze forcing along coastal regions enhances air descent over eastern parts of oceans and ascent over eastern parts of continents. This leads to the formation of the well-defined summertime subtropical LOSECOD quadruplet-heating pattern across each continent and adjacent oceans, with long-wave radiative cooling (LO) over eastern parts of oceans, sensible heating (SE) over western parts of continents, condensation heating (CO) over eastern parts of continents, and double dominant heating (D: LO+CO) over western parts of oceans. Such a quadruplet heating pattern corresponds to a dry climate over the western parts of continents and a wet climate over eastern parts. Third, regional-scale orographic-uplift-heating generates poleward ascending flow to the east of orography and equatorward descending flow to the west. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is located over the eastern Eurasian continent. The TP-forced circulation pattern is in phase with that produced by continental-scale forcing, and the strongest monsoon and largest deserts are formed over the Afro-Eurasian Continent. In contrast, the Rockies and the Andes are located over the western parts of their respective continents, and orography-induced ascent is separated from ascent due to continental-scale forcing. Accordingly, the deserts and monsoon climate over these continents are not as strongly developed as those over the Eurasian Continent. A new mechanism of positive feedback between diabatic heating and vorticity generation, which occurs via meridional transfer of heat and planetary vorticity, is proposed as a means of explaining the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon. Strong low-level longwave radiative cooling over eastern parts of oceans and strong surface sensible heating on western parts of continents generate negative vorticity that is balanced by positive planetary vorticity advection from high latitudes. The equatorward flow generated over eastern parts of oceans produces cold sea-surface temperature and stable stratification, leading in turn to the formation of low stratus clouds and the maintenance of strong in situ longwave radiative cooling. The equatorward flow over western parts of continents carries cold, dry air, thereby enhancing local sensible heating as well as moisture release from the underlying soil. These factors result in a dry desert climate. Over the eastern parts of continents, condensation heating generates positive vorticity in the lower troposphere, which is balanced by negative planetary vorticity advection of the meridional flow from low latitudes. The flow brings warm and moist air, thereby enhancing local convective instability and condensation heating associated with rainfall. These factors produce a wet monsoonal climate. Overall, our results demonstrate that subtropical desert and monsoon coexist as a consequence of multi-scale forcing along the subtropics.

Land Change Trends in the Great Plains: Linkages to Climate Variability and Socioeconomic Drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drummond, M. A.

2009-12-01

Land use and land cover change have complex linkages to climate variability and change, socioeconomic driving forces, and land management challenges. To assess these land change dynamics and their driving forces in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary land conversion across seventeen ecoregions using Landsat remote sensing data and statistical analysis. Large area change analysis in agricultural regions is often hampered by the potential for substantial change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur in relatively small patches at the local level. To facilitate a regional scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10-km by 10-km blocks is used in order to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time periods between 1972 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Results show a range of rates and processes of land change that vary by ecoregion contingent on the prevailing interactions between socioeconomic and environmental factors such as climate variability, water availability, and land quality. Ecoregions have differential climate and biophysical advantages for agricultural production and other land use change. Human actions further strengthen or dampen the characteristics of change through farm policy, technological advances, economic opportunities, population and demographic shifts, and surface and groundwater irrigation.

Sparse deconvolution for the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem of impact force reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, Baijie; Zhang, Xingwu; Gao, Jiawei; Liu, Ruonan; Chen, Xuefeng

2017-01-01

Most previous regularization methods for solving the inverse problem of force reconstruction are to minimize the l2-norm of the desired force. However, these traditional regularization methods such as Tikhonov regularization and truncated singular value decomposition, commonly fail to solve the large-scale ill-posed inverse problem in moderate computational cost. In this paper, taking into account the sparse characteristic of impact force, the idea of sparse deconvolution is first introduced to the field of impact force reconstruction and a general sparse deconvolution model of impact force is constructed. Second, a novel impact force reconstruction method based on the primal-dual interior point method (PDIPM) is proposed to solve such a large-scale sparse deconvolution model, where minimizing the l2-norm is replaced by minimizing the l1-norm. Meanwhile, the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute the search direction of PDIPM with high computational efficiency. Finally, two experiments including the small-scale or medium-scale single impact force reconstruction and the relatively large-scale consecutive impact force reconstruction are conducted on a composite wind turbine blade and a shell structure to illustrate the advantage of PDIPM. Compared with Tikhonov regularization, PDIPM is more efficient, accurate and robust whether in the single impact force reconstruction or in the consecutive impact force reconstruction.

Linkages between large-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Alaskan caribou populations

Treesearch

Kyle Joly; David R. Klein; David L. Verbyla; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin

2011-01-01

Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large-scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth...

Climatic and ecological impacts of tropospheric sulphate aerosols on the terrestrial carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.

2015-04-01

Tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) may oxidise the photosynthesising tissues if they are taken up by plants. A parametrisation of this impact of tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) on the terrestrial gross primary production is suggested. This parametrisation is implemented into the global Earth system model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of the Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). With this coupled model, the simulations are performed which are forced by common anthropogenic and natural climate forcings based on historical reconstructions followed by the RCP 8.5 scenario. The model response to sulphate aerosol loading is subdivided into the climatic (related to the influence of TSA on the radiative transport in the atmosphere) and ecological (related to the toxic influence of sulphate aerosol on terrestrial plants) impacts. We found that the former basically dominates over the latter on the global scale and modifies the responses of the global vegetation and soil carbon stocks to external forcings by 10%. At regional scale, however, ecological impact may be as much important as the climatic one.

The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

Evidence of long-term seasonal climate forcing in rhizolith isotopes during the last glaciation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Hongfang; Ambrose, S.H.; Fouke, B.W.

2004-01-01

High density carbonate rhizoliths were found from a loess-paleosol succession from the late Wisconsin period (21-11 ka) in Illinois. Their morphology shows that they formed in a close contact with living and decomposing roots, suggesting a root/microbial respiration origin. Carbon (??13C) and oxygen (??18O) isotopic analyses were performed on 36 and 37 individual rhizoliths of two separate 10 cm intervals and 98 bulk rhizoliths of all 10 cm intervals. The results of the individual rhizolith ??13C and ??18O analyses suggest that the carbon source was largely derived from respiring C3, C4 and microbial biomass, and that meteoric water was controlled mainly by warm-season precipitation. The results of bulk rhizolith ??13C and ??18O analyses show that warm-season proxies varied in phase with glacial fluctuations at submillennial scales, suggesting long-term seasonal forcing may have played an important role on climate change during the late Wisconsin glaciation in North America. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Climate responses to SATIRE and SIM-based spectral solar forcing in a 3D atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Wu, Dong L.; Krivova, Natalie A.

2017-03-01

We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) based, the other the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) modeled, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine climate responses on decadal to centennial time scales, focusing on quantifying the difference of climate response between the two solar forcing scenarios. We run the GCMAM for about 400 years with present day trace gas and aerosol for the two solar forcing inputs. We find that the SIM-based solar forcing induces much larger long-term response and 11-year variation in global averaged stratospheric temperature and column ozone. We find significant decreasing trends of planetary albedo for both forcing scenarios in the 400-year model runs. However the mechanisms for the decrease are very different. For SATIRE solar forcing, the decreasing trend of planetary albedo is associated with changes in cloud cover. For SIM-based solar forcing, without significant change in cloud cover on centennial and longer time scales, the apparent decreasing trend of planetary albedo is mainly due to out-of-phase variation in shortwave radiative forcing proxy (downwelling flux for wavelength >330 nm) and total solar irradiance (TSI). From the Maunder Minimum to present, global averaged annual mean surface air temperature has a response of 0.1 °C to SATIRE solar forcing compared to 0.04 °C to SIM-based solar forcing. For 11-year solar cycle, the global surface air temperature response has 3-year lagged response to either forcing scenario. The global surface air 11-year temperature response to SATIRE forcing is about 0.12 °C, similar to recent multi-model estimates, and comparable to the observational-based evidence. However, the global surface air temperature response to 11-year SIM-based solar forcing is insignificant and inconsistent with observation-based evidence.

The Dynamics of a Semi-Arid Region in Response to Climate and Water - Use Policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mustard, John F.; Hamburg, Steve; Grant, John A.; Manning, Sara J.; Steinwand, Aaron; Howard, Chris

2000-01-01

The objectives of this project were to determine the response of semi-arid ecosystems to the combined forcings of climate variability and anthropogenic stress. Arid and semi-arid systems encompass close to 40% of the worlds land surface. The ecology of these regions are principally limited by water, and as the water resources wax and wane, so should the health and vigor of the ecosystems. Water, however, is a necessary and critical resource for humans living in these same regions. Thus for many and and semi-arid regions the natural systems and human systems are in direct competition for a limited resource. Increasing competition through development of and and semi-arid regions, export of water resources, as well as potential persistent changes in weather patterns are likely to lead to fundamental changes in carrying capacity, resilience, and ecology of these regions. A detailed understanding of these systems respond to forcing on a regional and local scale is required in order to better prepare for and manage future changes in the availability of water. In the Owens Valley CA, decadal changes in rainfall and increased use of groundwater resources by Los Angles (which derives 60-70% of its water from this region) have resulted in a large-scale experiment on the impacts of these changes in semi-arid ecosystems. This project works directly with the Inyo County Water Department (local water authority) and the Los Angles Department of Water and Power (regional demand on water resources) to understand changes, their causes, and impacts. Very detailed records have been kept for a number of selected sites in the valley which provide essential ground truth. These results are then scaled up through remote sensed data to regions scale to assess large scale patterns and link them to the fundamental decisions regarding the water resources of this region. A fundamental goal is to understand how resilient the native ecosystems are to large changes in water resources. Are they are on a spring (remove and return resources, do the systems return to the original state) or a vector (when water returns have the systems fundamentally changed).

A probabilistic method for streamflow projection and associated uncertainty analysis in a data sparse alpine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Weiwei; Yang, Tao; Shi, Pengfei; Xu, Chong-yu; Zhang, Ke; Zhou, Xudong; Shao, Quanxi; Ciais, Philippe

2018-06-01

Climate change imposes profound influence on regional hydrological cycle and water security in many alpine regions worldwide. Investigating regional climate impacts using watershed scale hydrological models requires a large number of input data such as topography, meteorological and hydrological data. However, data scarcity in alpine regions seriously restricts evaluation of climate change impacts on water cycle using conventional approaches based on global or regional climate models, statistical downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, this study is dedicated to development of a probabilistic model to replace the conventional approaches for streamflow projection. The probabilistic model was built upon an advanced Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach directly fed by the large-scale climate predictor variables and tested in a typical data sparse alpine region, the Kaidu River basin in Central Asia. Results show that BNN model performs better than the general methods across a number of statistical measures. The BNN method with flexible model structures by active indicator functions, which reduce the dependence on the initial specification for the input variables and the number of hidden units, can work well in a data limited region. Moreover, it can provide more reliable streamflow projections with a robust generalization ability. Forced by the latest bias-corrected GCM scenarios, streamflow projections for the 21st century under three RCP emission pathways were constructed and analyzed. Briefly, the proposed probabilistic projection approach could improve runoff predictive ability over conventional methods and provide better support to water resources planning and management under data limited conditions as well as enable a facilitated climate change impact analysis on runoff and water resources in alpine regions worldwide.

Uncertainties in data-model comparisons: Spatio-temporal scales for past climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Data-model comparisons are hindered by uncertainties like varying reservoir ages or potential seasonality bias of the recorder systems, but also due to the models' difficulty to represent the spatio-temporal variability patterns. For the Holocene we detect a sensitivity to horizontal resolution in the atmosphere, the representation of atmospheric dynamics, as well as the dynamics of the western boundary currents in the ocean. These features can create strong spatial heterogeneity in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans over long timescales (unlike a diffusive spatio-temporal scale separation). Futhermore, it is shown that such non-linear mechanisms could create a non-trivial response to seasonal insolation forcing via an atmospheric bridge inducing non-uniform temperature anomalies over the northern continents on multi-millennial time scales. Through the fluctuation-dissipation-theorem, climate variability and sensitivity are ultimately coupled. It is argued that some obvious biases between models and data may be linked to the missing key persistent component of the atmospheric dynamics, the North Atlantic blocking activity. It is shown that blocking is also linked to Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability and to extreme events. Interestingly, several proxies provide a measure of the frequency of extreme events, and a proper representation is a true challenge for climate models. Finally, case studies from deep paleo are presented in which changes in land-sea distribution or subscale parameterizations can cause relatively large effects on surface temperature. Such experiments can explore the phase space of solutions, but show the limitation of past climates to constrain climate sensitivity.

Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.; Verardo, S.; Quinn, T.M.

2003-01-01

Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.

Simulating fluxes from heterogeneous land surfaces: Explicit subgrid method employing the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seth, Anji; Giorgi, Filippo; Dickinson, Robert E.

1994-01-01

A vectorized version of the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (VBATS) is used to study moisture, energy, and momentum fluxes from heterogeneous land surfaces st the scale of an atmospheric model (AM) grid cells. To incorporate subgrid scale inhomogeneity, VBATS includes two important features: (1) characterization of the land surface (vegetation and soil parameters) at N subgrid points within an AM grid cell and (2) explicit distribution of climate forcing (precipitation, clouds, etc.) over the subgrid. In this study, VBATS is used in stand-alone mode to simulate a single AM grid cell and to evaluate the effects of subgrid scale vegetation and climate specification on the surface fluxes and hydrology. It is found that the partitioning of energy can be affected by up to 30%, runoff by 50%, and surface stress in excess of 60%. Distributing climate forcing over the AM grid cell increases the Bowen ratio, as a result of enhanced sensible heat flux and reduced latent heat flux. The combined effect of heterogeneous vegetation and distribution of climate is found to be dependent on the dominat vegetation class in the AM grid cell. Development of this method is part of a larger program to explore the importance of subgrid scale processes in regional and global climate simulations.

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in RCP-like scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-04-01

Estimation of future emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols from human activities is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), however, all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented in the coming decades. In this study, we therefore explore the consequences of four alternative emission scenarios generated using the IMAGE integrated assessment model following the methods used to generate the RCPs. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 (the high air pollution variants assume no improvement in emission factors, representing a hypothetical upper end of emission levels). Analysis using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 shows that climate mitigation and air pollution control policy variants studied here have similar large-scale effects on the concentrations of ozone and black carbon; the impact of climate policy, however, has a stronger impact on sulphate concentrations. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate already in 2020, and on the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other at the global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W/m2 in the 6.0 W/m2 scenario and -0.16 W/m2 in the 2.6 W/m2 scenario.

Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Bloecker, Christine E.

2018-02-01

It is known that internal climate variability (ICV) can influence trends seen in observations and individual model simulations over a period of decades. This makes it difficult to quantify the forced response to external forcing. Here we analyze two large ensembles of simulations from 1950 to 2100 by two fully-coupled climate models, namely the CESM1 and CanESM2, to quantify ICV's influences on estimated trends in annual surface air temperature (Tas) and precipitation (P) over different time periods. Results show that the observed trends since 1979 in global-mean Tas and P are within the spread of the CESM1-simulated trends while the CanESM2 overestimates the historical changes, likely due to its deficiencies in simulating historical non-CO2 forcing. Both models show considerable spreads in the Tas and P trends among the individual simulations, and the spreads decrease rapidly as the record length increases to about 40 (50) years for global-mean Tas (P). Because of ICV, local and regional P trends may remain statistically insignificant and differ greatly among individual model simulations over most of the globe until the later part of the twenty-first century even under a high emissions scenario, while local Tas trends since 1979 are already statistically significant over many low-latitude regions and are projected to become significant over most of the globe by the 2030s. The largest influences of ICV come from the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and polar sea ice. In contrast to the realization-dependent ICV, the forced Tas response to external forcing has a temporal evolution that is similar over most of the globe (except its amplitude). For annual precipitation, however, the temporal evolution of the forced response is similar (opposite) to that of Tas over many mid-high latitude areas and the ITCZ (subtropical regions), but close to zero over the transition zones between the regions with positive and negative trends. The ICV in the transient climate change simulations is slightly larger than that in the control run for P (and other related variables such as water vapor), but similar for Tas. Thus, the ICV for P from a control run may need to be scaled up in detection and attribution analyses.

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong

2011-01-01

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major reason for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. The central theme of this paper is to review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations will be presented. Specifically, this paper will address the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from large-scale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions on aerosol - precipitation interactions are suggested.

Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S.

2012-12-01

The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions.

Disentangling climatic versus biotic drivers of tree range constraints: Broad scale tradeoffs between climate and competion rarely explain local range boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, L. D. L.; Hillerislambers, J.

2016-12-01

Accurate prediction of climatically-driven range shifts requires knowledge of the dominant forces constraining species ranges, because climatically controlled range boundaries will likely behave differently from biotically controlled range boundaries in a changing climate. Yet the roles of climatic constraints (due to species physiological tolerance) versus biotic constraints (caused by species interactions) on geographic ranges are largely unknown, infusing large uncertainty into projections of future range shifts. Plant species ranges across strong climatic gradients such as elevation gradients are often assumed to represent a tradeoff between climatic constraints on the harsh side of the range and biotic constraints (often competitive constraints) on the climatically benign side. To test this assumption, we collected tree cores from across the elevational range of the three dominant tree species inhabiting each of three climatically disparate mountain slopes and assessed climatic versus competitive constraints on growth at each species' range margins. Across all species and mountains, we found evidence for a tradeoff between climatic and competitve growth constraints. We also found that some individual species did show an apparent trade-off between a climatic constraint at one range margin and a competitive constraint at the other. However, even these simple elevation gradients resulted in complex interactions between temperature, moisture, and competitive constraints such that a climate-competition tradeoff did not explain range constraints for many species. Our results suggest that tree species can be constrained by a simple trade-off between climate and competition, but that the intricacies of real world climate gradients complicate the application of this theory even in apparently harsh environments, such as near high elevation tree line.

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M; Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Hall, Jim W; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2008-02-12

The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.

Application of empirical and dynamical closure methods to simple climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla, Lauren Elizabeth

This dissertation applies empirically- and physically-based methods for closure of uncertain parameters and processes to three model systems that lie on the simple end of climate model complexity. Each model isolates one of three sources of closure uncertainty: uncertain observational data, large dimension, and wide ranging length scales. They serve as efficient test systems toward extension of the methods to more realistic climate models. The empirical approach uses the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) to estimate the transient climate sensitivity (TCS) parameter in a globally-averaged energy balance model. Uncertainty in climate forcing and historical temperature make TCS difficult to determine. A range of probabilistic estimates of TCS computed for various assumptions about past forcing and natural variability corroborate ranges reported in the IPCC AR4 found by different means. Also computed are estimates of how quickly uncertainty in TCS may be expected to diminish in the future as additional observations become available. For higher system dimensions the UKF approach may become prohibitively expensive. A modified UKF algorithm is developed in which the error covariance is represented by a reduced-rank approximation, substantially reducing the number of model evaluations required to provide probability densities for unknown parameters. The method estimates the state and parameters of an abstract atmospheric model, known as Lorenz 96, with accuracy close to that of a full-order UKF for 30-60% rank reduction. The physical approach to closure uses the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) to demonstrate closure of small-scale, nonlinear processes that would not be resolved directly in climate models. A one-dimensional, abstract test model with a broad spatial spectrum is developed. The test model couples the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation to a transport equation that includes cloud formation and precipitation-like processes. In the test model, three main sources of MMF error are evaluated independently. Loss of nonlinear multi-scale interactions and periodic boundary conditions in closure models were dominant sources of error. Using a reduced order modeling approach to maximize energy content allowed reduction of the closure model dimension up to 75% without loss in accuracy. MMF and a comparable alternative model peformed equally well compared to direct numerical simulation.

Controls on late Holocene drift-sand dynamics: the role of people and climate on inland aeolian activity in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierik, Harm Jan; Van Lanen, Rowin; Gouw-Bouman, Marjolein; Groenewoudt, Bert; Wallinga, Jakob; Hoek, Wim

2017-04-01

Holocene drift-sand activity is commonly linked directly to either population pressure (via agricultural activity) or to climate change (e.g. storminess). In the Pleistocene sand areas of the Netherlands small-scale Holocene aeolian activity occurred since the Neolithic, whereas large scale drift-sand activity started during the Middle Ages (especially after AD 1000. This last phase coincides with the intensification of farming and demographic pressure, but is also commonly associated with a colder climate and enhanced storminess. This raises the question to what extent drift-sand activity can be attributed to human activities or to natural forcing factors. In this study we compare the spatial and chronological patterns of drift-sand occurrence for four characteristic Pleistocene sand regions in the Netherlands. For this, we compiled a new supra-regional overview of dates related to drift-sand activity (14C, OSL, archaeological and historical), that we compared with existing national soil maps, historical-route networks, and vegetation and climate reconstructions. Results show a steady occurrence of aeolian activity between 1000 BC and AD 1000, interrupted by remarkable dip in aeolian activity around 2000 BP, probably caused by changing land-use practices or by lower storminess. It is evident that human pressure on the landscape was most influential on initiating sand drifting: this is supported by more frequent occurrence close to routes and the uninterrupted increase in drift-sand activity after ca AD 1000 during periods of high population density and large-scale deforestation. Once triggered by human activities, the drift-sand development was probably further enhanced several centuries later during the cold and more stormy Little Ice Age (AD 1570-1900).

Change in the Green-Up Dates for Quercus mongolica in Northeast China and Its Climate-Driven Mechanism from 1962 to 2012.

PubMed

Fan, Deqin; Zhu, Wenquan; Zheng, Zhoutao; Zhang, Donghai; Pan, Yaozhong; Jiang, Nan; Zhou, Xiafei

2015-01-01

The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years). In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3th April) in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9th May) in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade-1) from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate.

TEMPORAL TRENDS OF BLACK CARBON CONCENTRATIONS AND REGIONAL CLIMATE FORCING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. (R825248)

EPA Science Inventory

The effect of black carbon (BC) on climate forcing is potentially important, but its estimates have large uncertainties due to a lack of sufficient observational data. The BC mass concentration in the southeastern US was measured at a regionally representative site, Mount Gibb...

Analysis of anthropogenic contributions to record high Australian summer rainfall (2010-2012) using CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie; Karoly, David

2013-04-01

Changes in extreme climate events pose significant challenges for both human and natural systems. Some climate extremes are likely to become "more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st century" (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007) due to anthropogenic climate change. Particularly in Australia, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a relationship to the relative frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this study, we investigate the record high two-summer rainfall observed in Australia (2010-2011 and 2011-2012). This record rainfall occurred in association with a two year extended La Niña event and resulted in severe and extensive flooding. We examine simulated changes in seasonal-scale rainfall extremes in the Australian region in a suite of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In particular, we utilise the novel CMIP5 detection and attribution historical experiments with various forcings (natural forcings only and greenhouse gas forcings only) to examine the impact of various anthropogenic forcings on seasonal-scale extreme rainfall across Australia. Using these standard detection and attribution experiments over the period of 1850 to 2005, we examine La Niña contributions to the 2-season record rainfall, as well as the longer-term climate change contribution to rainfall extremes. Was there an anthropogenic influence in the record high Australian summer rainfall over 2010 to 2012, and if so, how much influence? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., 996 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.

Correction of Excessive Precipitation over Steep Mountains in a General Circulation Model (GCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.

2012-01-01

Excessive precipitation over steep and high mountains (EPSM) is a well-known problem in GCMs and regional climate models even at a resolution as high as 19km. The affected regions include the Andes, the Himalayas, Sierra Madre, New Guinea and others. This problem also shows up in some data assimilation products. Among the possible causes investigated in this study, we found that the most important one, by far, is a missing upward transport of heat out of the boundary layer due to the vertical circulations forced by the daytime subgrid-scale upslope winds, which in turn is forced by heated boundary layer on the slopes. These upslope winds are associated with large subgrid-scale topographic variance, which is found over steep mountains. Without such subgrid-scale heat ventilation, the resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer generated by surface sensible heat flux along the mountain slopes is excessive. Such an excessive resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer combined with the high moisture content in the boundary layer results in excessive moisture transport toward mountaintops, which in turn gives rise to excessive precipitation over the affected regions. We have parameterized the effects of subgrid-scale heated-slope-induced vertical circulation (SHVC) by removing heat from the boundary layer and depositing it in the layers higher up when topographic variance exceeds a critical value. Test results using NASA/Goddard's GEOS-5 GCM have shown that the EPSM problem is largely solved.

Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Climate over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

2014-12-01

Land cover changes can influence regional climate through modifying the surface energy balance and water fluxes, and can also affect climate at large scales via changes in atmospheric general circulation. With rapid population growth and economic development, China has experienced significant land cover changes, such as deforestation, grassland degradation, and farmland expansion. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to investigate the climate impacts of anthropogenic land cover changes over China. To isolate the climatic effects of land cover change, we focus on the CAM and CLM models, with prescribed climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice cover. Two experiments were performed, one with current vegetation and the other with potential vegetation. Current vegetation conditions were derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, and potential vegetation over China was obtained from Ramankutty and Foley's global potential vegetation dataset. Impacts of land cover changes on surface air temperature and precipitation are assessed based on the difference of the two experiments. Results suggest that land cover changes have a cold-season cooling effect in a large region of China, but a warming effect in summer. These temperature changes can be reconciled with albedo forcing and evapotranspiration. Moreover, impacts on atmospheric circulation and the Asian Monsoon is also discussed.

The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, Matt; Haywood, Jim M.; Collins, Mat; Jones, Andy

2018-01-01

The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a coupled climate model, HadGEM2-ES, is used to investigate the response to idealised energy perturbations in the tropics and extratropics, in both the northern and southern hemispheres, through the imposition of stratospheric aerosols that reflect incoming radiation. The impact on the tropical climate of high and low latitude forcing strongly contrasts, with large changes in tropical precipitation and modulation of the DI bias when the tropics are cooled as precipitation moves away from the cooled hemisphere. These responses are muted when the extratropics are cooled, as the meridional energy transport anomalies that are excited by these energy budget anomalies are partitioned between the atmosphere and ocean. The results here highlight the persistence of the DI bias in HadGEM2-ES, indicating why little progress has been made in rectifying these problems through many generations of climate models. A highly linear relationship between cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport, tropical precipitation asymmetry and tropical sea surface temperature biases is also demonstrated, giving some suggestion as to where improvements in these large scale, persistent biases may be achieved.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Climate and litter quality differently modulate the effects of soil fauna on litter decomposition across biomes.

PubMed

García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T; Kattge, Jens; Wall, Diana H

2013-08-01

Climate and litter quality have been identified as major drivers of litter decomposition at large spatial scales. However, the role played by soil fauna remains largely unknown, despite its importance for litter fragmentation and microbial activity. We synthesised litterbag studies to quantify the effect sizes of soil fauna on litter decomposition rates at the global and biome scales, and to assess how climate, litter quality and soil fauna interact to determine such rates. Soil fauna consistently enhanced litter decomposition at both global and biome scales (average increment ~ 37%). [corrected]. However, climate and litter quality differently modulated the effects of soil fauna on decomposition rates between biomes, from climate-driven biomes to those where climate effects were mediated by changes in litter quality. Our results advocate for the inclusion of biome-specific soil fauna effects on litter decomposition as a mean to reduce the unexplained variation in large-scale decomposition models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U; Wang, Huajian; Costa, M Mafalda; Bjerrum, Christian J; Connelly, James N; Zhang, Baomin; Bian, Lizeng; Canfield, Donald E

2015-03-24

Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes in the location of the Xiamaling relative to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. On shorter time scales, and within a precisely calibrated stratigraphic framework, cyclicity in sediment geochemical dynamics is consistent with orbital control. In particular, sediment geochemical fluctuations reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment.

Patterns of variations in large pelagic fish: A comparative approach between the Indian and the Atlantic Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbineau, A.; Rouyer, T.; Fromentin, J.-M.; Cazelles, B.; Fonteneau, A.; Ménard, F.

2010-07-01

Catch data of large pelagic fish such as tuna, swordfish and billfish are highly variable ranging from short to long term. Based on fisheries data, these time series are noisy and reflect mixed information on exploitation (targeting, strategy, fishing power), population dynamics (recruitment, growth, mortality, migration, etc.), and environmental forcing (local conditions or dominant climate patterns). In this work, we investigated patterns of variation of large pelagic fish (i.e. yellowfin tuna, bigeye tuna, swordfish and blue marlin) in Japanese longliners catch data from 1960 to 2004. We performed wavelet analyses on the yearly time series of each fish species in each biogeographic province of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans. In addition, we carried out cross-wavelet analyses between these biological time series and a large-scale climatic index, i.e. the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Results showed that the biogeographic province was the most important factor structuring the patterns of variability of Japanese catch time series. Relationships between the SOI and the fish catches in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans also pointed out the role of climatic variability for structuring patterns of variation of catch time series. This work finally confirmed that Japanese longline CPUE data poorly reflect the underlying population dynamics of tunas.

Dependence of Snowmelt Simulations on Scaling of the Forcing Processes (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winstral, A. H.; Marks, D. G.; Gurney, R. J.

2009-12-01

The spatial organization and scaling relationships of snow distribution in mountain environs is ultimately dependent on the controlling processes. These processes include interactions between weather, topography, vegetation, snow state, and seasonally-dependent radiation inputs. In large scale snow modeling it is vital to know these dependencies to obtain accurate predictions while reducing computational costs. This study examined the scaling characteristics of the forcing processes and the dependency of distributed snowmelt simulations to their scaling. A base model simulation characterized these processes with 10m resolution over a 14.0 km2 basin with an elevation range of 1474 - 2244 masl. Each of the major processes affecting snow accumulation and melt - precipitation, wind speed, solar radiation, thermal radiation, temperature, and vapor pressure - were independently degraded to 1 km resolution. Seasonal and event-specific results were analyzed. Results indicated that scale effects on melt vary by process and weather conditions. The dependence of melt simulations on the scaling of solar radiation fluxes also had a seasonal component. These process-based scaling characteristics should remain static through time as they are based on physical considerations. As such, these results not only provide guidance for current modeling efforts, but are also well suited to predicting how potential climate changes will affect the heterogeneity of mountain snow distributions.

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinsley, Brian A.

1990-01-01

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Accuracy requirements. [for monitoring of climate changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delgenio, Anthony

1993-01-01

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Effects of Solar Activities on Tropospheric Thermodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Kyle, H. Lee; Wharton, Stephen W. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Whether the Sun has significantly influenced the climate during the last century has been under extensive debates for almost two decades. Since the solar irradiance varies very little in a solar cycle, it is puzzling that some geophysical parameters show proportionally large variations which appear to be responding to the solar cycles. For example, variation in low altitude clouds is shown correlated with solar cycle, and the onset of Forbush decrease is shown correlated with the reduction of the vorticity area index. A possible sun-climate connection is that galactic cosmic rays modulated by solar activities influence cloud formation. In this paper, we apply wavelet transform to satellite and surface data to examine this hypothesis. Data analyzed include the time series for solar irradiance, sunspots, UV index, temperature, cloud coverage, and neutron counter measurements. The interactions among the elements in the Earth System under the external and internal forcings give out very complex signals.The periodicity of the forcings or signals could range widely. Since wavelet transforms can analyze multi-scale phenomena that are both localized in frequency and time, it is a very useful technique for detecting, understanding and monitoring climate changes.

Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L. O.

2009-12-01

Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach is being attempted in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) whereby multiple global models are used to drive multiple regional models for the current period and the mid-21st century over the continent. Progress in this endeavor will be reported.

Quantifying surface albedo and other direct biogeophysical climate forcings of forestry activities.

PubMed

Bright, Ryan M; Zhao, Kaiguang; Jackson, Robert B; Cherubini, Francesco

2015-09-01

By altering fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere, forestry and other land-use activities affect climate. Although long recognized scientifically as being important, these so-called biogeophysical forcings are rarely included in climate policies for forestry and other land management projects due to the many challenges associated with their quantification. Here, we review the scientific literature in the fields of atmospheric science and terrestrial ecology in light of three main objectives: (i) to elucidate the challenges associated with quantifying biogeophysical climate forcings connected to land use and land management, with a focus on the forestry sector; (ii) to identify and describe scientific approaches and/or metrics facilitating the quantification and interpretation of direct biogeophysical climate forcings; and (iii) to identify and recommend research priorities that can help overcome the challenges of their attribution to specific land-use activities, bridging the knowledge gap between the climate modeling, forest ecology, and resource management communities. We find that ignoring surface biogeophysics may mislead climate mitigation policies, yet existing metrics are unlikely to be sufficient. Successful metrics ought to (i) include both radiative and nonradiative climate forcings; (ii) reconcile disparities between biogeophysical and biogeochemical forcings, and (iii) acknowledge trade-offs between global and local climate benefits. We call for more coordinated research among terrestrial ecologists, resource managers, and coupled climate modelers to harmonize datasets, refine analytical techniques, and corroborate and validate metrics that are more amenable to analyses at the scale of an individual site or region. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

2016-04-01

Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some climates, and vice versa in others. How important this variability is in supporting a policy decision, depends largely on how a decision thresholds are set. For example in the case of the aridity index, with areas being denoted as arid with an index of 0.6 or above, we show that the variability is primarily of interest in transitional climates, such as the Mediterranean The analysis shows that while both LSM's and GHM's provide useful data, indices derived to support water resources management planning may differ substantially, depending on the model used. The analysis also identifies in which climates improvements to the models are particularly relevant to support the confidence with which decisions can be taken based on derived indicators.

Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2013-12-01

As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century. Forcings for this period are produced from a select number of GCM-representative concentration pathways (RCPs) pairings. GSWP3 is specifically directed towards addressing the following key science questions: 1. How have interactions between eco-hydrological processes changed in the long term within a changing climate? 2. What is /will be the state of the water, energy, and carbon balances over land in the 20th and 21st centuries and what are the implications of the anticipated changes for human society in terms of freshwater resources, food productivity, and biodiversity? 3. How do the state-of-the-art land surface modeling systems perform and how can they be improved? In this presentation, we present preliminary results relevant to science question two, including: revised best-estimate global hydrological cycles for the retrospective period, inter-comparisons of modeled terrestrial water storage in large river basins and satellite remote-sensing estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes during the 20th century on the long-term trend of water availability and scarcity.

Skin Friction Reduction Through Large-Scale Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, Shibani; Artham, Sravan; Gnanamanickam, Ebenezer

2017-11-01

Flow structures in a turbulent boundary layer larger than an integral length scale (δ), referred to as large-scales, interact with the finer scales in a non-linear manner. By targeting these large-scales and exploiting this non-linear interaction wall shear stress (WSS) reduction of over 10% has been achieved. The plane wall jet (PWJ), a boundary layer which has highly energetic large-scales that become turbulent independent of the near-wall finer scales, is the chosen model flow field. It's unique configuration allows for the independent control of the large-scales through acoustic forcing. Perturbation wavelengths from about 1 δ to 14 δ were considered with a reduction in WSS for all wavelengths considered. This reduction, over a large subset of the wavelengths, scales with both inner and outer variables indicating a mixed scaling to the underlying physics, while also showing dependence on the PWJ global properties. A triple decomposition of the velocity fields shows an increase in coherence due to forcing with a clear organization of the small scale turbulence with respect to the introduced large-scale. The maximum reduction in WSS occurs when the introduced large-scale acts in a manner so as to reduce the turbulent activity in the very near wall region. This material is based upon work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Award Number FA9550-16-1-0194 monitored by Dr. Douglas Smith.

Non-linear scale interactions in a forced turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duvvuri, Subrahmanyam; McKeon, Beverley

2015-11-01

A strong phase-organizing influence exerted by a single synthetic large-scale spatio-temporal mode on directly-coupled (through triadic interactions) small scales in a turbulent boundary layer forced by a spatially-impulsive dynamic wall-roughness patch was previously demonstrated by the authors (J. Fluid Mech. 2015, vol. 767, R4). The experimental set-up was later enhanced to allow for simultaneous forcing of multiple scales in the flow. Results and analysis are presented from a new set of novel experiments where two distinct large scales are forced in the flow by a dynamic wall-roughness patch. The internal non-linear forcing of two other scales with triadic consistency to the artificially forced large scales, corresponding to sum and difference in wavenumbers, is dominated by the latter. This allows for a forcing-response (input-output) type analysis of the two triadic scales, and naturally lends itself to a resolvent operator based model (e.g. McKeon & Sharma, J. Fluid Mech. 2010, vol. 658, pp. 336-382) of the governing Navier-Stokes equations. The support of AFOSR (grant #FA 9550-12-1-0469, program manager D. Smith) is gratefully acknowledged.

Sensitivity of tree ring growth to local and large-scale climate variability in a region of Southeastern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venegas-González, Alejandro; Chagas, Matheus Peres; Anholetto Júnior, Claudio Roberto; Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Tomazello Filho, Mario

2016-01-01

We explored the relationship between tree growth in two tropical species and local and large-scale climate variability in Southeastern Brazil. Tree ring width chronologies of Tectona grandis (teak) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) trees were compared with local (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index—WRSI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Palmer Drought Severity Index—PDSI) and large-scale climate indices that analyze the equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (Trans-Niño Index-TNI and Niño-3.4-N3.4) and atmospheric circulation variations in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Oscillation-AAO). Teak trees showed positive correlation with three indices in the current summer and fall. A significant correlation between WRSI index and Caribbean pine was observed in the dry season preceding tree ring formation. The influence of large-scale climate patterns was observed only for TNI and AAO, where there was a radial growth reduction in months preceding the growing season with positive values of the TNI in teak trees and radial growth increase (decrease) during December (March) to February (May) of the previous (current) growing season with positive phase of the AAO in teak (Caribbean pine) trees. The development of a new dendroclimatological study in Southeastern Brazil sheds light to local and large-scale climate influence on tree growth in recent decades, contributing in future climate change studies.

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

Modeling Forest Composition and Carbon Dynamics Under Projected Climate-Fire Interactions in the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, S.; Hurteau, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2014-12-01

The Sierra Nevada Mountains are occupied by a diversity of forest types that sort by elevation. The interaction of changing climate and altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire) has the potential to drive changes in forest distribution as a function of species-specific response. Quantifying the effects of these drivers on species distributions and productivity under future climate-fire interactions is necessary for informing mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we assimilated forest inventory and soil survey data and species life history traits into a landscape model, LANDIS-II, to quantify the response of forest dynamics to the interaction of climate change and large wildfire frequency in the Sierra Nevada. We ran 100-year simulations forced with historical climate and climate projections from three models (GFDL, CNRM and CCSM3) driven by the A2 emission scenario. We found that non-growing season NPP is greatly enhanced by 15%-150%, depending on the specific climate projection. The greatest increase occurs in subalpine forests. Species-specific response varied as a function of life history characteristics. The distribution of drought and fire-tolerant species, such as ponderosa pine, expanded by 7.3-9.6% from initial conditions, while drought and fire-intolerant species, such as white fir, showed little change in the absence of fire. Changes in wildfire size and frequency influence species distributions by altering the successional stage of burned patches. The range of responses to different climate models demonstrates the sensitivity of these forests to climate variability. The scale of climate projections relative to the scale of forest simulations presents a source of uncertainty, particularly at the ecotone between forest types and for identifying topographically mediated climate refugia. Improving simulations will likely require higher resolution climate projections.

Do Responses to Different Anthropogenic Forcings Add Linearly in Climate Models?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew; Bonfils, Celine; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2015-01-01

Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings; however, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to di?erent forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to di?erences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

DOE PAGES

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew; ...

2015-10-14

Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However,more » we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Lastly, our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.« less

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

Projected changes over western Canada using convection-permitting regional climate model and the pseudo-global warming method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kurkute, S.; Chen, L.

2017-12-01

Results from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest more frequent and more severe extreme rain events in a climate warmer than the present. However, current GCMs cannot accurately simulate extreme rainfall events of short duration due to their coarse model resolutions and parameterizations. This limitation makes it difficult to provide the detailed quantitative information for the development of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. Dynamical downscaling using nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to capture key regional and local climate processes with an affordable computational cost. Recent studies have demonstrated that the downscaling of GCM results with weather-permitting mesoscale models, such as the pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique, could be a viable and economical approach of obtaining valuable climate change information on regional scales. We have conducted a regional climate 4-km Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) simulation with one domain covering the whole western Canada, for a historic run (2000-2015) and a 15-year future run to 2100 and beyond with the PGW forcing. The 4-km resolution allows direct use of microphysics and resolves the convection explicitly, thus providing very convincing spatial detail. With this high-resolution simulation, we are able to study the convective mechanisms, specifically the control of convections over the Prairies, the projected changes of rainfall regimes, and the shift of the convective mechanisms in a warming climate, which has never been examined before numerically at such large scale with such high resolution.

Quantifying the scale- and process- dependent reorganization of landscape under climatic change: inferences from an experimental landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Grimaud, J. L.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2016-12-01

Knowledge of the dynamics of evolving landscapes in terms of their geomorphic and topologic re-organization in response to changing climatic or tectonic forcing is of scientific and practical interest. Although several studies have addressed the large-scale response (e.g., change in mean relief), studies on the smaller-scale drainage pattern re-organization and quantification of landscape vulnerability to the timing, magnitude, and frequency of changing forcing are lacking. The reason is the absence of data for such an analysis. To that goal, a series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory of the University of Minnesota to study the effect of changing precipitation patterns on landscape evolution at the short and long-time scales. High resolution digital elevation (DEM) both in space and time were measured for a range of rainfall patterns and uplift rates. Results from our study show a distinct signature of the precipitation increase on the probabilistic and geometrical structure of landscape features, evident in widening and deepening of channels and valleys, change in drainage patterns within sub-basins and change in the space-time structure of erosional and depositional events. A spatially explicit analysis of the locus of these erosional and depositional events suggests a regime shift, during the onset of the transient state, from supply-limited to transport-limited fluvial channels. We document a characteristic scale-dependent signature of erosion at steady state (which we term the "E50-area curve") and show that during reorganization, its evolving shape reflects process and scales of geomorphic change. Finally, we document changes in the longitudinal river profiles, in response to increased precipitation rate, with the formation of abrupt gradient (knickpoints) that migrate upstream as time proceeds.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

2009-12-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be reached as the climate is further warmed. Finally, we suggest novel model validation techniques based upon comparing the characteristics of FY and MY ice within models to observations. We propose that keeping an account of FY and MY ice area within sea ice models offers a powerful new way to evaluate model projections of sea ice in a greenhouse warming climate.

Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Posselt, Derek J.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Hou, Arthur Y.; Stephens, Graeme L.

2007-01-01

The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.

Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, Lynn M; Lubin, Dan

2013-06-18

The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of datamore » that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data.« less

A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

2015-05-01

A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

Analysis of the ability of large-scale reanalysis data to define Siberian fire danger in preparation for future fire prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Amber; Westberg, David; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; McRae, Douglas; Jin, Ji-Zhong; Sukhinin, Anatoly

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards equilibrium with a new climate. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned. Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) Fire Weather Index (FWI) will be derived using: (1) NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data; and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially, temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes.

Fire modeling in the Brazilian arc of deforestation through nested coupling of atmosphere, dynamic vegetation, LUCC and fire spread models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourigny, E.; Nobre, C.; Cardoso, M. F.

2012-12-01

Deforestation of tropical forests for logging and agriculture, associated to slash-and-burn practices, is a major source of CO2 emissions, both immediate due to biomass burning and future due to the elimination of a potential CO2 sink. Feedbacks between climate change and LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) can potentially increase the loss of tropical forests and increase the rate of CO2 emissions, through mechanisms such as land and soil degradation and the increase in wildfire occurrence and severity. However, current understanding of the processes of fires (including ignition, spread and consequences) in tropical forests and climatic feedbacks are poorly understood and need further research. As the processes of LUCC and associated fires occur at local scales, linking them to large-scale atmospheric processes requires a means of up-scaling higher resolutions processes to lower resolutions. Our approach is to couple models which operate at various spatial and temporal scales: a Global Climate Model (GCM), Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) and local-scale LUCC and fire spread model. The climate model resolves large scale atmospheric processes and forcings, which are imposed on the surface DGVM and fed-back to climate. Higher-resolution processes such as deforestation, land use management and associated (as well as natural) fires are resolved at the local level. A dynamic tiling scheme allows to represent local-scale heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency of the land surface model, compared to traditional landscape models. Fire behavior is modeled at the regional scale (~500m) to represent the detailed landscape using a semi-empirical fire spread model. The relatively coarse scale (as compared to other fire spread models) is necessary due to the paucity of detailed land-cover information and fire history (particularly in the tropics and developing countries). This work presents initial results of a spatially-explicit fire spread model coupled to the IBIS DGVM model. Our area of study comprises selected regions in and near the Brazilian "arc of deforestation". For model training and evaluation, several areas have been mapped using high-resolution imagery from the Landsat TM/ETM+ sensors (Figure 1). This high resolution reference data is used for local-scale simulations and also to evaluate the accuracy of the global MCD45 burned area product, which will be used in future studies covering the entire "arc of deforestation".; Area of study along the arc of deforestation and cerrado: landsat scenes used and burned area (2010) from MCD45 product.

Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Christensen, Hannah M.; Juricke, Stephan; Subramanian, Aneesh; Watson, Peter A. G.; Weisheimer, Antje; Palmer, Tim N.

2017-03-01

The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850-2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate - specifically the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

Response of the Kuroshio Extension path state to near-term global warming in CMIP5 experiments with MIROC4h

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Rui; Jing, Zhao; Chen, Zhaohui; Wu, Lixin

2017-04-01

In this study, responses of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) path state to near-term (2006-2035) global warming are investigated using a Kuroshio-resolving atmosphere-ocean coupled model. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) forcing, the KE system is intensified and its path state tends to move northward and becomes more stable. It is suggested that the local anticyclonic wind stress anomalies in the KE region favor the spin-up of the southern recirculation gyre, and the remote effect induced by the anticyclonic wind stress anomalies over the central and eastern midlatitude North Pacific also contributes to the stabilization of the KE system substantially. The dominant role of wind stress forcing on KE variability under near-term global warming is further confirmed by adopting a linear 1.5 layer reduced-gravity model forced by wind stress curl field from the present climate model. It is also found that the main contributing longitudinal band for KE index (KEI) moves westward in response to the warmed climate. This results from the northwestward expansion of the large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) field.

Scale and modeling issues in water resources planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Wolock, D.M.; McCabe, G.J.

1997-01-01

Resource planners and managers interested in utilizing climate model output as part of their operational activities immediately confront the dilemma of scale discordance. Their functional responsibilities cover relatively small geographical areas and necessarily require data of relatively high spatial resolution. Climate models cover a large geographical, i.e. global, domain and produce data at comparatively low spatial resolution. Although the scale differences between model output and planning input are large, several techniques have been developed for disaggregating climate model output to a scale appropriate for use in water resource planning and management applications. With techniques in hand to reduce the limitations imposed by scale discordance, water resource professionals must now confront a more fundamental constraint on the use of climate models-the inability to produce accurate representations and forecasts of regional climate. Given the current capabilities of climate models, and the likelihood that the uncertainty associated with long-term climate model forecasts will remain high for some years to come, the water resources planning community may find it impractical to utilize such forecasts operationally.

A new paradigm for predicting zonal-mean climate and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Roe, G.; Donohoe, A.; Siler, N.; Markle, B. R.; Liu, X.; Feldl, N.; Battisti, D. S.; Frierson, D. M.

2016-12-01

How will the pole-to-equator temperature gradient, or large-scale patterns of precipitation, change under global warming? Answering such questions typically involves numerical simulations with comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs) that represent the complexities of climate forcing, radiative feedbacks, and atmosphere and ocean dynamics. Yet, our understanding of these predictions hinges on our ability to explain them through the lens of simple models and physical theories. Here we present evidence that zonal-mean climate, and its changes, can be understood in terms of a moist energy balance model that represents atmospheric heat transport as a simple diffusion of latent and sensible heat (as a down-gradient transport of moist static energy, with a diffusivity coefficient that is nearly constant with latitude). We show that the theoretical underpinnings of this model derive from the principle of maximum entropy production; that its predictions are empirically supported by atmospheric reanalyses; and that it successfully predicts the behavior of a hierarchy of climate models - from a gray radiation aquaplanet moist GCM, to comprehensive GCMs participating in CMIP5. As an example of the power of this paradigm, we show that, given only patterns of local radiative feedbacks and climate forcing, the moist energy balance model accurately predicts the evolution of zonal-mean temperature and atmospheric heat transport as simulated by the CMIP5 ensemble. These results suggest that, despite all of its dynamical complexity, the atmosphere essentially responds to energy imbalances by simply diffusing latent and sensible heat down-gradient; this principle appears to explain zonal-mean climate and its changes under global warming.

Records of millennial-scale climate change from the Great Basin of the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, Larry

High-resolution (decadal) records of climate change from the Owens, Mono, and Pyramid Lake basins of California and Nevada indicate that millennialscale oscillations in climate of the Great Basin occurred between 52.6 and 9.2 14C ka. Climate records from the Owens and Pyramid Lake basins indicate that most, but not all, glacier advances (stades) between 52.6 and ˜15.0 14C ka occurred during relatively dry times. During the last alpine glacial period (˜60.0 to ˜14.0 14C ka), stadial/interstadial oscillations were recorded in Owens and Pyramid Lake sediments by the negative response of phytoplankton productivity to the influx of glacially derived silicates. During glacier advances, rock flour diluted the TOC fraction of lake sediments and introduction of glacially derived suspended sediment also increased the turbidity of lake water, decreasing light penetration and photosynthetic production of organic carbon. It is not possible to correlate objectively peaks in the Owens and Pyramid Lake TOC records (interstades) with Dansgaard-Oeschger interstades in the GISP2 ice-core δ18O record given uncertainties in age control and difference in the shapes of the OL90, PLC92 and GISP2 records. In the North Atlantic region, some climate records have clearly defined variability/cyclicity with periodicities of 102 to 103 yr; these records are correlatable over several thousand km. In the Great Basin, climate proxies also have clearly defined variability with similar time constants, but the distance over which this variability can be correlated remains unknown. Globally, there may be minimal spatial scales (domains) within which climate varies coherently on centennial and millennial scales, but it is likely that the sizes of these domains vary with geographic setting and time. A more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms of climate forcing and the physical linkages between climate forcing and system response is needed in order to predict the spatial scale(s) over which climate varies coherently.

How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

2017-04-01

Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

Interactive coupling of regional climate and sulfate aerosol models over eastern Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yun; Giorgi, Filippo

1999-03-01

The NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) is interactively coupled to a simple radiatively active sulfate aerosol model over eastern Asia. Both direct and indirect aerosol effects are represented. The coupled model system is tested for two simulation periods, November 1994 and July 1995, with aerosol sources representative of present-day anthropogenic sulfur emissions. The model sensitivity to the intensity of the aerosol source is also studied. The main conclusions from our work are as follows: (1) The aerosol distribution and cycling processes show substantial regional spatial variability, and temporal variability varying on a range of scales, from the diurnal scale of boundary layer and cumulus cloud evolution to the 3-10 day scale of synoptic scale events and the interseasonal scale of general circulation features; (2) both direct and indirect aerosol forcings have regional effects on surface climate; (3) the regional climate response to the aerosol forcing is highly nonlinear, especially during the summer, due to the interactions with cloud and precipitation processes; (4) in our simulations the role of the aerosol indirect effects is dominant over that of direct effects; (5) aerosol-induced feedback processes can affect the aerosol burdens at the subregional scale. This work constitutes the first step in a long term research project aimed at coupling a hierarchy of chemistry/aerosol models to the RegCM over the eastern Asia region.

The global warming in the North Atlantic Sector and the role of the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, R.; Keenlyside, N. S.; Greatbatch, R. J.; Omrani, N. E.

2014-12-01

This work presents an analysis of North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interaction in a warming climate, based on a long-term earth system model experiment forced by the RCP 8.5 scenario, the strongest greenhouse gas forcing used in the climate projections for the 5th Assessement report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). In addition to a global increase in SSTs as a direct response to the radiative forcing, the model shows a distinct change of the local sea surface temperature (SST hereafter) patterns in the Gulf Stream region: The SST front moves northward by several hundred kilometers, likely as a response of the wind-driven part of the oceanic surface circulation, and becomes more zonal. As a consequence of a massive slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the northeast North Atlantic only shows a moderate warming compared to the rest of the ocean. The feedback of these changes on the atmosphere was studied in a set of sensitivity experiments based on the SST climatology of the coupled runs. The set consists of a control run based on the historical run, a run using the full SST from the coupled RCP 8.5 run and two runs, where the SST signal was deconstructed into a homogenous mean warming part and a local pattern change. In the region of the precipitation maximum in the historical run the future scenario shows an increase of absolute SSTs, but a significant decrease in local precipitation, low-level convergence and upward motion. Since warmer SSTs usually cause the opposite, this indicates that the local response in that region is connected to the (with respect to the historical run) weakened SST gradients rather than to the absolute SST. Consistently, the model shows enhanced precipitation north of this region, where the SST gradients are enhanced. However, the signal restricts to the low and mid-troposphere and does not reach the higher model levels. There is little evidence for a large-scale response to the changes in the Gulf Stream region; instead, the large scale signal is mainly controlled by the warmer background state and the AMOC slowdown and influenced by tropical SSTs. In a warmer climate the same change in SST gradient has a stronger effect on precipitation and the model produces a slightly enhanced North Atlantic storm track.

Scaling Coastal Ecosystems to Oceanographic and Climatic Drivers: Making Sense of Community Variation on Rocky Shores Using the Comparative-Experimental Approach in Upwelling and Downwelling Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menge, B. A.; Gouhier, T.; Chan, F.; Hacker, S.; Menge, D.; Nielsen, K. J.

2016-02-01

Ecology focuses increasingly on the issue of matching spatial and temporal scales responsible for ecosystem pattern and dynamics. Benthic coastal communities traditionally were studied at local scales using mostly short-term research, while environmental (oceanographic, climatic) drivers were investigated at large scales (e.g., regional to oceanic, mostly offshore) using combined snapshot and monitoring (time series) research. The comparative-experimental approach combines local-scale studies at multiple sites spanning large-scale environmental gradients in combination with monitoring of inner shelf oceanographic conditions including upwelling/downwelling wind forcing and their consequences (e.g., temperature), and inputs of subsidies (larvae, phytoplankton, detritus). Temporal scale varies depending on the questions, but can extend from years to decades. We discuss two examples of rocky intertidal ecosystem dynamics, one at a regional scale (California Current System, CCS) and one at an interhemispheric scale. In the upwelling-dominated CCS, 52% and 32% of the variance in local community structure (functional group abundances at 13 sites across 725 km) was explained by external factors (ecological subsidies, oceanographic conditions, geographic location), and species interactions, respectively. The interhemispheric study tested the intermittent upwelling hypothesis (IUH), which predicts that key ecological processes will vary unimodally along a persistent downwelling to persistent upwelling gradient. Using 14-22 sites, unimodal relationships between ecological subsidies (phytoplankton, prey recruitment), prey responses (barnacle colonization, mussel growth) and species interactions (competition rate, predation rate and effect) and the Bakun upwelling index calculated at each site accounted for 50% of the variance. Hence, external factors can account for about half of locally-expressed community structure and dynamics.

Regional dry-season climate changes due to three decades of Amazonian deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Jaya; Medvigy, David; Fueglistaler, Stephan; Walko, Robert

2017-02-01

More than 20% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades, triggering important hydroclimatic changes. Small-scale (a few kilometres) deforestation in the 1980s has caused thermally triggered atmospheric circulations that increase regional cloudiness and precipitation frequency. However, these circulations are predicted to diminish as deforestation increases. Here we use multi-decadal satellite records and numerical model simulations to show a regime shift in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing deforestation in Rondônia, Brazil. Compared with the 1980s, present-day deforested areas in downwind western Rondônia are found to be wetter than upwind eastern deforested areas during the local dry season. The resultant precipitation change in the two regions is approximately +/-25% of the deforested area mean. Meso-resolution simulations robustly reproduce this transition when forced with increasing deforestation alone, showing that large-scale climate variability plays a negligible role. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness reduction is found to play an essential role in the present-day dry-season hydroclimate. Our study illustrates the strong scale sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation and suggests that deforestation is sufficiently advanced to have caused a shift from a thermally to a dynamically driven hydroclimatic regime.

How Did Climate and Humans Respond to Past Volcanic Eruptions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toohey, Matthew; Ludlow, Francis; Legrande, Allegra N.

2016-01-01

To predict and prepare for future climate change, scientists are striving to understand how global-scale climatic change manifests itself on regional scales and also how societies adapt or don't to sometimes subtle and complex climatic changes. In this regard, the strongest volcanic eruptions of the past are powerful test cases, showcasing how the broad climate system responds to sudden changes in radiative forcing and how societies have responded to the resulting climatic shocks. These issues were at the heart of the inaugural workshop of the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) Working Group, convened in June 2016 at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y. The 3-day meeting gathered approximately 50 researchers, who presented work intertwining the history of volcanic eruptions and the physical processes that connect eruptions with human and natural systems on a global scale.

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2017-12-01

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-05-12

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

A Generalized Simple Formulation of Convective Adjustment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Convective adjustment timescale (τ) for cumulus clouds is one of the most influential parameters controlling parameterized convective precipitation in climate and weather simulation models at global and regional scales. Due to the complex nature of deep convection, a prescribed value or ad hoc representation of τ is used in most global and regional climate/weather models making it a tunable parameter and yet still resulting in uncertainties in convective precipitation simulations. In this work, a generalized simple formulation of τ for use in any convection parameterization for shallow and deep clouds is developed to reduce convective precipitation biases at different grid spacing. Unlike existing other methods, our new formulation can be used with field campaign measurements to estimate τ as demonstrated by using data from two different special field campaigns. Then, we implemented our formulation into a regional model (WRF) for testing and evaluation. Results indicate that our simple τ formulation can give realistic temporal and spatial variations of τ across continental U.S. as well as grid-scale and subgrid scale precipitation. We also found that as the grid spacing decreases (e.g., from 36 to 4-km grid spacing), grid-scale precipitation dominants over subgrid-scale precipitation. The generalized τ formulation works for various types of atmospheric conditions (e.g., continental clouds due to heating and large-scale forcing over la

Untangling the causes a decadal-scale drought: a case study in southeast Australia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie; Gallant, Ailie

2017-04-01

Prolonged droughts on the order of multiple years to a decade have recently afflicted many parts of highly populated regions around the globe, for example, the southwest United States and southeast Australia. However, the causes of these droughts remain unclear. A significant contribution from natural decadal-scale climate variability is likely, but there is also conflicting evidence of any contribution from anthropogenic climate change. This work aims to untangle the causes of a 13-year drought in southeast Australia spanning 1997-2009. A suite of historical and control simulations from fully coupled GCMs contained in the CMIP5 archive are employed, and the potential contributions of random climate variability, SST forcing and anthropogenic forcing to the drought are examined. It is likely that random, decadal-scale variability played a significant role in producing the prolonged rainfall deficits across southeast Australia. These were reinforced by several years with El Niño-like conditions, which commonly induce drought in the region, and a lack of La Niña conditions, which are more likely to bring rain. Evidence of contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the drought is limited

Alongshore wind forcing of coastal sea level as a function of frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, H.F.; Noble, M.A.

2006-01-01

The amplitude of the frequency response function between coastal alongshore wind stress and adjusted sea level anomalies along the west coast of the United States increases linearly as a function of the logarithm (log10) of the period for time scales up to at least 60, and possibly 100, days. The amplitude of the frequency response function increases even more rapidly at longer periods out to at least 5 yr. At the shortest periods, the amplitude of the frequency response function is small because sea level is forced only by the local component of the wind field. The regional wind field, which controls the wind-forced response in sea level for periods between 20 and 100 days, not only has much broader spatial scales than the local wind, but also propagates along the coast in the same direction as continental shelf waves. Hence, it has a stronger coupling to and an increased frequency response for sea level. At periods of a year or more, observed coastal sea level fluctuations are not only forced by the regional winds, but also by joint correlations among the larger-scale climatic patterns associated with El Nin??o. Therefore, the amplitude of the frequency response function is large, despite the fact that the energy in the coastal wind field is relatively small. These data show that the coastal sea level response to wind stress forcing along the west coast of the United States changes in a consistent and predictable pattern over a very broad range of frequencies with time scales from a few days to several years.

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. PMID:24307747

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson; Galbraith, Hector; Giesen, Kenneth M

2002-09-01

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Hurricane Activity and the Large-Scale Pattern of Spread of an Invasive Plant Species

PubMed Central

Bhattarai, Ganesh P.; Cronin, James T.

2014-01-01

Disturbances are a primary facilitator of the growth and spread of invasive species. However, the effects of large-scale disturbances, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, on the broad geographic patterns of invasive species growth and spread have not been investigated. We used historical aerial imagery to determine the growth rate of invasive Phragmites australis patches in wetlands along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These were relatively undisturbed wetlands where P. australis had room for unrestricted growth. Over the past several decades, invasive P. australis stands expanded in size by 6–35% per year. Based on tropical storm and hurricane activity over that same time period, we found that the frequency of hurricane-force winds explained 81% of the variation in P. australis growth over this broad geographic range. The expansion of P. australis stands was strongly and positively correlated with hurricane frequency. In light of the many climatic models that predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes over the next century, these results suggest a strong link between climate change and species invasion and a challenging future ahead for the management of invasive species. PMID:24878928

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Capron, Emilie; Carlson, Anders E.; Dutton, Andrea; Fischer, Hubertus; Goelzer, Heiko; Govin, Aline; Haywood, Alan; Joos, Fortunat; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lohmann, Gerrit; Mahowald, Natalie; Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph; Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Phipps, Steven J.; Renssen, Hans; Zhang, Qiong

2017-11-01

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

Climatic pacing of Mediterranean fire histories from lake sedimentary microcharcoal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, R.; Roberts, N.; Jones, M. D.

2008-10-01

The microcharcoal content (particles < 180 µm) of overlapping sedimentary sequences from two crater lake basins in central Turkey are used to reconstruct the regional fire history of the East Mediterranean oak-grass parkland zone from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present-day. These results are correlated with stable isotope and pollen data from the same cores in order to assess the changing role of climate, vegetation and human activity in landscape burning. This indicates that climatically-induced variation in biomass availability was the main factor controlling the timing of regional fire activity during the Last Glacial-Interglacial climatic transition, and again during Mid-Holocene times, with fire frequency and magnitude increasing during wetter climatic phases. Spectral analysis of the Holocene part of the record from Eski Acıgöl indicates significant cyclicity with a periodicity of ~ 1500 years that may be linked with large-scale climate forcing. Although proto-agricultural societies were established in this region as early as 10,000 years ago, it is only during the last two to three millennia that the pacing of wildfire cycles appears to have become decoupled from climate and linked instead to human-induced changes in land cover and fuel load availability.

A Microscale View of Mixing and Overturning Across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naveira Garabato, A.; Polzin, K. L.; Ferrari, R. M.; Zika, J. D.; Forryan, A.

2014-12-01

The meridional overturning circulation and stratication of the global ocean are shaped critically by processes in the Southern Ocean. The zonally unblocked nature of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) confers the region with a set of special dynamics that ultimately results in the focussing therein of large vertical exchanges between layers spanning the global ocean pycnocline. These vertical exchanges are thought to be mediated by oceanic turbulent motions (associated with mesoscale eddies and small-scale turbulence), yet the vastness of the Southern Ocean and the sparse and intermittent nature of turbulent processes make their relative roles and large-scale impacts extremely difficult to assess.Here, we address the problem from a new angle, and use measurements of the centimetre-scale signatures of mesoscale eddies and small-scale turbulence obtained during the DIMES experiment to determine the contributions of those processes to sustaining large-scale meridional overturning across the ACC. We find that mesoscale eddies and small-scale turbulence play complementary roles in forcing a meridional circulation of O(1 mm / s) across the Southern Ocean, and that their roles are underpinned by distinct and abrupt variations in the rates at which they mix water parcels. The implications for our understanding of the Southern Ocean circulation's sensitivity to climatic change will be discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version ofmore » the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.« less

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

2018-04-01

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as `field' or `global' significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.

Climate and air quality impacts of altered BVOC fluxes from land cover change in Southeast Asia 1990 - 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Kandice; Yue, Xu; Unger, Nadine

2016-04-01

Large-scale transformation of the natural rainforests of Southeast Asia in recent decades, driven primarily by logging and agroforestry activities, including rapid expansion of plantations of high-isoprene-emitting oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) trees at the expense of comparatively low-emitting natural dipterocarp rainforests, may have altered the prevailing regime of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) fluxes from this tropical region. Chemical processing of isoprene in the atmosphere impacts the magnitude and distribution of several short-lived climate forcers, including ozone and secondary organic aerosols. Consequently, modification of the fluxes of isoprene and other BVOCs from vegetation serves as a mechanism by which tropical land cover change impacts both air quality and climate. We apply satellite-derived snapshots of land cover for the period 1990 - 2010 to the NASA ModelE2-Yale Interactive Terrestrial Biosphere (ModelE2-YIBs) global carbon-chemistry-climate model to quantify the impact of Southeast Asian land cover change on atmospheric chemical composition and climate driven by changes in isoprene emission. NASA ModelE2-YIBs features a fully interactive land carbon cycle and includes a BVOC emission algorithm which energetically couples isoprene production to photosynthesis. The time-slice simulations are nudged with large-scale winds from the GMAO reanalysis dataset and are forced with monthly anthropogenic and biomass burning reactive air pollution emissions from the MACCity emissions inventory. Relative to the year 1990, regional isoprene emissions in 2010 increased by 2.6 TgC/yr from the expansion of Southeast Asian oil palm plantations and decreased by 0.7 TgC/yr from the loss of regional dipterocarp rainforest. Considering only the impact of land-cover-change-induced isoprene emission changes in Southeast Asia over this period, we calculate a spatially heterogeneous impact on regional seasonal surface-level ozone concentrations (minimum: -1.0 ppb, maximum: +1.3 ppb) in conjunction with an increase in ozone concentration in the free tropical troposphere (maximum zonal-average increase of 1.3 ppb in the climate-sensitive upper tropical troposphere). The resulting long-wave radiative forcing from changes in the ozone concentration exhibits a moderate regional signature in the tropics (+4 mW/m2 tropical average).

Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing Derived from Sea WiFS-Inferred Aerosol Optical Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Wang, Menghua

1999-01-01

Aerosol optical properties inferred from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) radiance measurements are used to compute the aerosol shortwave radiative forcing using a radiative transfer model. The aerosol optical thickness at the wavelength of 865-nm is taken from the SeaWIFS archive. It is found that the nominal optical thickness over oceans ranges from 0.1 to 0.2. Using a maritime aerosol model and the radiances measured at the various SeaWiFS channels, the Angstrom exponent is determined to be 0.2174, the single-scattering albedo to be 0.995, and the asymmetry factor to be 0.786. The radiative transfer model has eight bands in the visible and ultraviolet spectral regions and three bands in the near infrared. It includes the absorption due to aerosols, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and oxygen, and the scattering due to aerosols and gases (Rayleigh scattering). The radiative forcing is computed over global oceans for four months (January, April, July, and October, 1998) to represent four seasons. It is found that the aerosol radiative forcing is large and changes significantly with seasons near the continents with large-scale forest fires and desert dust. Averaged over oceans and the four months, the aerosol radiative forcing is approximately 7 W/sq m at the top of the atmosphere. This large radiative forcing is expected to have a significant cooling effect on the Earth's climate as implied from simulations of a number of general circulation models.

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydro climatic conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological paradigm for many regions. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently impacted North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia, and Australia result...

Effects of ocean-atmosphere coupling on rainfall over the Indian Ocean and northwestern Pacific Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z. Q.; Xie, S. P.; Zhou, W.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM), forced with specified SST, has been widely used in climate studies. On one hand, AGCM is much faster to run compared to coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Also, the identical SST forcing allows a clean evaluation of the atmospheric component of CGCM. On the other hand, the coupling between atmosphere and ocean is missed in such atmosphere-only simulations. It is not clear how such simplification could affect the simulate of the atmosphere. In this study, the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling is studied by comparing a CGCM simulation with an AGCM simulation which is forced with monthly SSTs specified from the CGCM simulation. Particularly, we focus on the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall over the IONWP during boreal summer. The IONWP is a unique region with a strong negative correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during boreal summer on the interannual time scale. The lead/lag correlation analysis suggests a negative feedback of rainfall on SST, which is only reasonably captured by CGCMs. We find that the lack of the negative feedback in AGCM not only enhances the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall but also increases the internal variability of rainfall over the IONWP. A simple mechanism is proposed to explain such enhancement. In addition, AGCM is able to capture the large-scale rainfall pattern over the IONWP during boreal summer, this is because that rainfall here is caused by remote ENSO effect on the interannual time scale. Our results herein suggest that people should be more careful when using an AGCM for climate change studies.

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick; Maarten van Ormondt,; Erikson, Li H.; Jodi Eshleman,; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Peter Ruggiero,; Peter Adams,; Foxgrover, Amy C.

2014-01-01

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Modulation of the erosion rate of an uplifting landscape by long-term climate change: An experimental investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moussirou, Bérangé; Bonnet, Stéphane

2018-02-01

Whether or not climatic variations play a major role in setting the erosion rate of continental landscapes is a key factor in demonstrating the influence of climate on the tectonic evolution of mountain belts and understanding how clastic deposits preserved in sedimentary basins may record climatic variations. Here, we investigate how a change in precipitation influences the erosional dynamics of laboratory-scale landscapes that evolved under a combination of uplift and rainfall forcings. We consider here the impact of a decrease in the precipitation rate of finite duration on the erosive response of a landscape forced by a constant uplift and initially at a steady state (SS1). We performed several experiments with the same amplitude but different durations of precipitation decrease (Tp). We observe that the decrease in precipitation induces a phase of surface uplift of landscapes to a new steady state condition (SS2); however, the details of the uplift histories (timing, rate) differ between the experiments according to Tp. We also observe a decrease in the erosion rate induced by the precipitation change; however, the timing and amplitude of this decrease vary according to Tp, defining a delayed and damped erosion signal. Our data show that the landscape response to precipitation change is dictated by a critical water-to-rock ratio (ratio of precipitation over uplift) that likely corresponds to a geomorphic threshold. Our study suggests that variations in precipitation that occur at a geological time scale (> 106 years) may have a weak impact on the erosion of landscapes and on the delivery of siliciclastic material to large rivers and sedimentary basins.

Spatial heterogeneity in ecologically important climate variables at coarse and fine scales in a high-snow mountain landscape.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Ettinger, Ailene K; Lundquist, Jessica D; Raleigh, Mark S; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke

2013-01-01

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change.

Spatial Heterogeneity in Ecologically Important Climate Variables at Coarse and Fine Scales in a High-Snow Mountain Landscape

PubMed Central

Ford, Kevin R.; Ettinger, Ailene K.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Raleigh, Mark S.; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke

2013-01-01

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change. PMID:23762277

The Stochastic predictability limits of GCM internal variability and the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Rio Amador, Lenin; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

Over the past ten years, a key advance in our understanding of atmospheric variability is the discovery that between the weather and climate regime lies an intermediate "macroweather" regime, spanning the range of scales from ≈10 days to ≈30 years. Macroweather statistics are characterized by two fundamental symmetries: scaling and the factorization of the joint space-time statistics. In the time domain, the scaling has low intermittency with the additional property that successive fluctuations tend to cancel. In space, on the contrary the scaling has high (multifractal) intermittency corresponding to the existence of different climate zones. These properties have fundamental implications for macroweather forecasting: a) the temporal scaling implies that the system has a long range memory that can be exploited for forecasting; b) the low temporal intermittency implies that mathematically well-established (Gaussian) forecasting techniques can be used; and c), the statistical factorization property implies that although spatial correlations (including teleconnections) may be large, if long enough time series are available, they are not necessarily useful in improving forecasts. Theoretically, these conditions imply the existence of stochastic predictability limits in our talk, we show that these limits apply to GCM's. Based on these statistical implications, we developed the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) for the prediction of temperature from regional to global scales and from one month to many years horizons. One of the main components of StocSIPS is the separation and prediction of both the internal and externally forced variabilities. In order to test the theoretical assumptions and consequences for predictability and predictions, we use 41 different CMIP5 model outputs from preindustrial control runs that have fixed external forcings: whose variability is purely internally generated. We first show that these statistical assumptions hold with relatively good accuracy and then we performed hindcasts at global and regional scales from monthly to annual time resolutions using StocSIPS. We obtained excellent agreement between the hindcast Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) and the theoretical stochastic limits. We also show the application of StocSIPS to the prediction of average global temperature and compare our results with those obtained using multi-model ensemble approaches. StocSIPS has numerous advantages including a) higher MSSS for large time horizons, b) the from convergence to the real - not model - climate, c) much higher computational speed, d) no need for data assimilation, e) no ad hoc post processing and f) no need for downscaling.

Century to Millennium-Scale Late Quaternary Natural Climate Variability in the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaumann, Peter Josef

1995-01-01

Estimates of past natural climatic variability on long time scales (centuries to millennia) are crucial in testing climate models. The process of model validation takes advantage of long general circulation model (GCM) integrations, instrumental and satellite observations, and paleoclimatic records. Here I use paleoclimatic proxy records from central North America spanning the last 150 ka to characterize climatic variability on sub-orbital time scales. A terrestrial last interglacial (~ 130 to 75 kyr BP) pollen sequence from south-central Illinois, U.S.A., contains climatic variance in frequency bands between 1 cycle/10 kyr and 1 cycle/1 kyr. The temporal variance is best developed as alternating cycles of pollen assemblages indicative of wet and dry conditions. Spectral cross-correlations between selected pollen types and potential forcings (ETP (eccentricity, tilt, precession), SPECMAP delta^{18}O) implicate oceanic and solar processes as possible mechanisms driving last interglacial vegetation and climate change in the Midwestern U.S. During the last glacial stage (LGS; 20 to 16 kyr BP) a lacustrine sequence from the central Mississippi River valley experienced major flooding events caused by intermittent melting of the Laurentide ice sheet. Rock -magnetic and grain size data confirm the physical record of flood clays. Correlation of the flood clays to the Greenland (GRIP) ice core is weak. However, the Laurentide melting events seem to fall temporally between the releases of minor LGS iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic. The GRIP delta^{18}O and the Midwestern U.S. magnetic susceptibility time series indicate sub-Milankovitch climate variability modes. Mapping, multivariate, and time series analyses of Holocene (8 to 1 ka) pollen sequences from central North America suggest spatial patterns of vegetation and climate change on sub-orbital to millennial time scales. The rate, magnitude, and spatial patterns of change varied considerably over the study region. Major climatic variance contained in several well-dated pollen time series ranges between 1 cycle/6 kyr and 1 cycle/0.6 kyr. Singular and cross -spectral analyses, again, suggest solar and oceanic forcing. Although it is difficult to attribute past climatic changes to specific forcings, the geologic record of past global change will prove invaluable in the assessment of long-term future climate change and prediction.

Microphysical, Macrophysical and Radiative Signatures of Volcanic Aerosols in Trade Wind Cumulus Observed by the A-Train

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuan, T.; Remer, L. A.; Yu, H.

2011-01-01

Increased aerosol concentrations can raise planetary albedo not only by reflecting sunlight and increasing cloud albedo, but also by changing cloud amount. However, detecting aerosol effect on cloud amount has been elusive to both observations and modeling due to potential buffering mechanisms and convolution of meteorology. Here through a natural experiment provided by long-tem1 degassing of a low-lying volcano and use of A-Train satellite observations, we show modifications of trade cumulus cloud fields including decreased droplet size, decreased precipitation efficiency and increased cloud amount are associated with volcanic aerosols. In addition we find significantly higher cloud tops for polluted clouds. We demonstrate that the observed microphysical and macrophysical changes cannot be explained by synoptic meteorology or the orographic effect of the Hawaiian Islands. The "total shortwave aerosol forcin", resulting from direct and indirect forcings including both cloud albedo and cloud amount. is almost an order of magnitude higher than aerosol direct forcing alone. Furthermore, the precipitation reduction associated with enhanced aerosol leads to large changes in the energetics of air-sea exchange and trade wind boundary layer. Our results represent the first observational evidence of large-scale increase of cloud amount due to aerosols in a trade cumulus regime, which can be used to constrain the representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models. The findings also have implications for volcano-climate interactions and climate mitigation research.

Trends of Measured Climate Forcing Agents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/sq m per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately equal to 3 W/sq m per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (approximately equal to 2 W/M2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate + 0.15 +/- 0.05 C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

The Astronomical Forcing of Climate Change: Forcings and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, M. P.; Broccoli, A. J.; Clement, A. C.

2010-12-01

Understanding the role that orbital forcing played in driving climate change over the Pleistocene has been a matter of ongoing research. While it is undeniable that variations in Earth’s orbit result in changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation, the specifics of how this forcing leads to the climate changes seen in the paleo record are not fully understood. To research this further, climate simulations have been conducted with the GFDL CM2.1, a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Two simulations represent the extremes of obliquity during the past 600 kyr and four others show key times in the precessional cycle. All non-orbital variables are set to preindustrial levels to isolate the effects of astronomical forcing alone. It is expected that feedbacks should play a large role in dictating climate change, so to investigate this, the so-called “kernel method” is used to calculate the lapse rate, water vapor, albedo, and cloud feedbacks. Preliminary results of these experiments confirm that feedbacks are important in explaining the nature and, in places, even the sign of climate response to orbital forcing. In the case of low obliquity, for instance, a combination of climate feedbacks lead to global cooling in spite of zero global-average top of atmosphere insolation change. Feedbacks will be analyzed in the obliquity and precession experiments so that the role of feedbacks in contributing to climate change may be better understood.

The relative roles of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases in climate forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiehl, J. T.; Briegleb, B. P.

1993-01-01

Calculations of the effects of both natural and anthropogenic tropospheric sulfate aerosols indicate that the aerosol climate forcing is sufficiently large in a number of regions of the Northern Hemisphere to reduce significantly the positive forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Summer sulfate aerosol forcing in the Northern Hemisphere completely offsets the greenhouse forcing over the eastern United States and central Europe. Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols contribute a globally averaged annual forcing of -0.3 watt per square meter as compared with +2.1 watts per square meter for greenhouse gases. Sources of the difference in magnitude with the previous estimate of Charlson et al. (1992) are discussed.

Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers inferred from fossil midge assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Joos, Fortunat; Renssen, Hans; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Tinner, Willy

2017-02-01

Understanding past climate trends is key for reliable projections of global warming and associated risks and hazards. Uncomfortably large discrepancies between vegetation-based summer temperature reconstructions (mainly based on pollen) and climate model results have been reported for the current interglacial, the Holocene. For the Mediterranean region these reconstructions indicate cooler-than-present mid-Holocene summers, in contrast with expectations based on climate models and long-term changes in summer insolation. We present new quantitative and replicated Holocene summer temperature reconstructions based on fossil chironomid midges from the northern central Mediterranean region. The Holocene thermal maximum is reconstructed 9,000-5,000 years ago and estimated to have been 1-2 °C warmer in mean July temperature than the recent pre-industrial period, consistent with glacier and marine records, and with transient climate model runs. This combined evidence implies that widely used pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean area are significantly biased by precipitation or other forcings such as early land use. Our interpretation can resolve the previous discrepancy between climate models and quantitative palaeotemperature records for millennial-scale Holocene summer temperature trends in the Mediterranean region. It also suggests that pollen-based evidence for cool mid-Holocene summers in other semi-arid to arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere may have to be reconsidered, with potential implications for global-scale reconstructions.

Combined effects of climate change and forest clearing on the Amazon vegetation: Projections for 2080-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

2007-05-01

A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km coupled with a potential vegetation model is used to simulate future vegetation distributions over South America. The coupled model, which produces an accurate representation of today's climate and vegetation, is forced with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, sea surface temperature from a global model, and scenarios of future land use practices to predict climate and vegetation distributions for the last 2 decades of the 21st century. When only climate change is considered, under a business-as-usual scenario for global emissions, the extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent by the end of this century, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward. Reductions in annual mean precipitation are widespread and rainfall becomes insufficient to support the rainforest in these regions, but some areas receive more precipitation. The length of the dry season increases in the central and southern Amazon in association with changes in the large-scale tropical circulation. Without this change in seasonality, local refugia of Amazon vegetation would be preserved and the retreat of the rainforest would be somewhat less extensive. Including various projections of future land use practices in addition to climate change may accelerate the unrecoverable demise of the rainforest and feedback to modify climate on regional space scales. The portions of the rainforest that are most vulnerable to climate change are the same as those that are under the most pressure from human activity, presenting a remarkable competition.

Sensitivity of river discharge to the quality of external meteorological forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Materia, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Guo, Z.; Alessandri, A.; Navarra, A.

2009-09-01

Large-scale river routing models are essential tools to close the hydrological cycle in fully coupled climate models. Moreover, the availability of a realistic routing scheme is a powerful instrument to assess the validity of land surface parameterization, which has been recognized to be a crucial component of the global climate. This study is dedicated to assess the sensitivity of river discharge to the variation of external meteorological forcing. The Land Surface Scheme created at the Center for Ocean, Land and Atmosphere Studies (COLA), the SSiB model, was constrained with different meteorological fields. The resulting surface and sub-surface runoffs were used as forcing data for the HD River Routing Scheme. As expected, river flow is mainly sensitive to precipitation variability, but changes in radiative forcing affect discharge as well, presumably due to the interaction with evaporation. Also, this analysis provided an estimate of the sensitivity of river discharge to precipitation variations. A few areas, like Central and Eastern Asia, Southern and Central Europe and the majority of the US, show a magnified response of river discharge to a given percentage change in precipitation. Hence, an amplified effect of droughts following the reduction in precipitation, as it is indicated by many climate scenarios, may occur in places such as the Mediterranean. Conversely, increasing summer precipitation foreseen in Southern and Eastern Asia may amplify floods in one the poorest and most populated regions in the world. These results can be used for the definition and assessment of new strategies for land use and water management in the near future.

Tracing the influence of Mediterranean climate on Southeastern Europe during the past 350,000 years

PubMed Central

Obreht, Igor; Zeeden, Christian; Hambach, Ulrich; Veres, Daniel; Marković, Slobodan B.; Bösken, Janina; Svirčev, Zorica; Bačević, Nikola; Gavrilov, Milivoj B.; Lehmkuhl, Frank

2016-01-01

Loess-palaeosol sequences are valuable archives of past environmental changes. Although regional palaeoclimatic trends and conditions in Southeastern Europe have been inferred from loess sequences, large scale forcing mechanisms responsible for their formation have yet to be determined. Southeastern Europe is a climatically sensitive region, existing under the strong influence of both Mediterranean and continental climates. Establishment of the spatial and temporal evolution and interaction of these climatic areas is essential to understand the mechanisms of loess formation. Here we present high-resolution grain-size, environmental magnetic, spectrophotometric and geochemical data from the Stalać section in the Central Balkans (Serbia) for the past ~350,000 years. The goal of this study is to determine the influence of the Mediterranean climate during this period. Data show that the Central Balkans were under different atmospheric circulation regimes, especially during Marine Isotope Stages 9 and 7, while continental climate prevailed further north. We observe a general weakening of the Mediterranean climate influence with time. Our data suggest that Marine Isotope Stage 5 was the first interglacial in the Central Balkans that had continental climate characteristics. This prominent shift in climatic conditions resulted in unexpectedly warm and humid conditions during the last glacial. PMID:27824102

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate-wildfire interactions.

PubMed

Liang, Shuang; Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest response to climate-wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium-high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate-specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought-tolerant species over less drought-tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid-elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape-level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome-based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: CaliforniaSanta Ana wind occurrence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Norman L.; Schlegel, Nicole J.

2006-01-01

A new methodbased on global climate model pressuregradients was developed for identifying coastal high-wind fire weatherconditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO). Application of thismethod for determining southern California Santa Ana wind occurrenceresulted in a good correlation between derived large-scale SAOs andobserved offshore winds during periods of low humidity. The projectedchange in the number of SAOs was analyzed using two global climatemodels, one a low temperature sensitivity and the other amiddle-temperature sensitivity, both forced with low and high emissionscenarios, for three future time periods. This initial analysis showsconsistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September-October) to later(November-December) in themore » season, suggesting that SAOs may significantlyincrease the extent of California coastal areas burned by wildfires, lossof life, and property.« less

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

PubMed Central

Lenton, Timothy M.; Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Hall, Jim W.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2008-01-01

The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points. PMID:18258748

Re-reading the IPCC Report: Aerosols, Droughts and ENSO Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potts, K. A.

2008-12-01

The Technical Summary of Working Group One in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that "changes in aerosols may have affected precipitation and other aspects of the hydrologic cycle more strongly than other anthropogenic forcing agents" and that "Simulations also suggest that absorbing aerosols, particularly black carbon, can reduce the solar radiation reaching the surface and can warm the atmosphere at regional scales, affecting the vertical temperature profile and the large-scale atmospheric circulation". Taking these two statements at face value I first identify eight seasonal, anthropogenic, regional scale, aerosol plumes which now occur each year and then report the correlation of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) of some of these plumes with climate anomalies in the higher latitudes and with ENSO events. The eight identified aerosol plumes vary significantly in extent and AOD inter annually. They have also increased in geographic extent and AOD over recent decades as the population in the tropics, the origin of the majority of these plumes, has increased dramatically requiring increased levels of agriculture and commercial activity. I show that: the AOD of the South East Asian Plume, occurring from late July to November, correlates with four characteristics of drought in south eastern Australia; the aerosol index of the Middle East Plume correlates negatively with rainfall in Darfur; and the volume of tephra ejected by volcanoes in south east Asia correlates: negatively with rainfall and water inflows into the Murray River in south eastern Australia; and positively with ENSO events over the period 1890/91 to 2006. I conclude that aerosol plumes over south eastern Asia are the cause of drought in south eastern Australia and ENSO events and confirm the statements made in the IPCC Report with respect to these aerosol plumes. I propose a new component of surface aerosol radiative forcing, Regional Dimming, which interferes with the seasonal movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone and forces the regional Hadley Cells into anomalous seasonal positions producing blocking high pressure systems in the higher latitudes and causing climate change by altering the wind systems. The South East Asian Plume also creates ENSO events by altering or inhibiting the circulation of the Walker Cell which changes the MSL pressure relationship between Darwin and Tahiti creating Southern Oscillation Index events and reducing the wind speed in the central Pacific Ocean causing an increase in the sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 area. Finally I suggest that further research on the effects of these eight regional scale aerosol plumes on the hydrologic cycle and large-scale atmospheric circulation using a global circulation model is crucial to the understanding and attribution of climate change and is urgently required.

Climate simulation of the twenty-first century with interactive land-use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voldoire, Aurore; Eickhout, Bas; Schaeffer, Michiel; Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice

2007-08-01

To include land-use dynamics in a general circulation model (GCM), the physical system has to be linked to a system that represents socio-economy. This issue is addressed by coupling an integrated assessment model, IMAGE2.2, to an ocean atmosphere GCM, CNRM-CM3. In the new system, IMAGE2.2 provides CNRM-CM3 with all the external forcings that are scenario dependent: greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentrations, sulfate aerosols charge and land cover. Conversely, the GCM gives IMAGE changes in mean temperature and precipitation. With this new system, we have run an adapted scenario of the IPCC SRES scenario family. We have chosen a single scenario with maximum land-use changes (SRES A2), to illustrate some important feedback issues. Even in this two-way coupled model set-up, land use in this scenario is mainly driven by demographic and agricultural practices, which overpowers a potential influence of climate feedbacks on land-use patterns. This suggests that for scenarios in which socio-economically driven land-use change is very large, land-use changes can be incorporated in GCM simulations as a one-way driving force, without taking into account climate feedbacks. The dynamics of natural vegetation is more closely linked to climate but the time-scale of changes is of the order of a century. Thus, the coupling between natural vegetation and climate could generate important feedbacks but these effects are relevant mainly for multi-centennial simulations.

Evaluating meteo marine climatic model inputs for the investigation of coastal hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellafiore, D.; Bucchignani, E.; Umgiesser, G.

2010-09-01

One of the major aspects discussed in the recent works on climate change is how to provide information from the global scale to the local one. In fact the influence of sea level rise and changes in the meteorological conditions due to climate change in strategic areas like the coastal zone is at the base of the well known mitigation and risk assessment plans. The investigation of the coastal zone hydrodynamics, from a modeling point of view, has been the field for the connection between hydraulic models and ocean models and, in terms of process studies, finite element models have demonstrated their suitability in the reproduction of complex coastal morphology and in the capability to reproduce different spatial scale hydrodynamic processes. In this work the connection between two different model families, the climate models and the hydrodynamic models usually implemented for process studies, is tested. Together, they can be the most suitable tool for the investigation of climate change on coastal systems. A finite element model, SHYFEM (Shallow water Hydrodynamic Finite Element Model), is implemented on the Adriatic Sea, to investigate the effect of wind forcing datasets produced by different downscaling from global climate models in terms of surge and its coastal effects. The wind datasets are produced by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CIRA), and by EBU-POM model (Belgrade University), both downscaling from ECHAM4. As a first step the downscaled wind datasets, that have different spatial resolutions, has been analyzed for the period 1960-1990 to compare what is their capability to reproduce the measured wind statistics in the coastal zone in front of the Venice Lagoon. The particularity of the Adriatic Sea meteo climate is connected with the influence of the orography in the strengthening of winds like Bora, from North-East. The increase in spatial resolution permits the more resolved wind dataset to better reproduce meteorology and to provide a more realistic forcing for hydrodynamic simulations. After this analysis, effects on water level variations, under different wind forcing, has been analyzed to define what is the local effect on sea level changes in the coastal area of the North Adriatic. Surge statistics produced from different climate model forcings for the IPCC A1B scenario have been studied to provide local information on climate change effects on coastal hydrodynamics due to meteorological effect. This typology of application has been considered a suitable tool for coastal management and can be considered a study field that will increase its importance in the more general investigation on scale interaction processes as the effects of global scale climate phenomena on local areas.

Detection and attribution of climate change at regional scale: case study of Karkheh river basin in the west of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zohrabi, Narges; Goodarzi, Elahe; Massah Bavani, Alireza; Najafi, Husain

2017-11-01

This research aims at providing a statistical framework for detection and attribution of climate variability and change at regional scale when at least 30 years of observation data are available. While extensive research has been done on detecting significant observed trends in hydroclimate variables and attribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in large continents, less attention has been paid for regional scale analysis. The latter is mainly important for adaptation to climate change in different sectors including but not limited to energy, agriculture, and water resources planning and management, and it is still an open discussion in many countries including the West Asian ones. In the absence of regional climate models, an informative framework is suggested providing useful insights for policymakers. It benefits from general flexibility, not being computationally expensive, and applying several trend tests to analyze temporal variations in temperature and precipitation (gradual and step changes). The framework is implemented for a very important river basin in the west of Iran. In general, some increasing and decreasing trends of the interannual precipitation and temperature have been detected. For precipitation annual time series, a reducing step was seen around 1996 compared with the gradual change in most of the stations, which have not experience a dramatical change. The range of natural forcing is found to be ±76 % for precipitation and ±1.4 °C for temperature considering a two-dimensional diagram of precipitation and temperature anomalies from 1000-year control run of global climate model (GCM). Findings out of applying the proposed framework may provide useful insights into how to approach structural and non-structural climate change adaptation strategies from central governments.

Role of the North Atlantic Ocean in Low Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, G.; Yeager, S. G.; Kim, W. M.; Castruccio, F. S.

2017-12-01

The Atlantic Ocean is a unique basin with its extensive, North - South overturning circulation, referred to as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). AMOC is thought to represent the dynamical memory of the climate system, playing an important role in decadal and longer time scale climate variability as well as prediction of the earth's future climate on these time scales via its large heat and salt transports. This oceanic memory is communicated to the atmosphere primarily through the influence of persistent sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Indeed, many modeling studies suggest that ocean circulation, i.e., AMOC, is largely responsible for the creation of coherent SST variability in the North Atlantic, referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). AMV has been linked to many (multi)decadal climate variations in, e.g., Sahel and Brazilian rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, and Arctic sea-ice extent. In the absence of long, continuous observations, much of the evidence for the ocean's role in (multi)decadal variability comes from model simulations. Although models tend to agree on the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in creating the density anomalies that proceed the changes in ocean circulation, model fidelity in representing variability characteristics, mechanisms, and air-sea interactions remains a serious concern. In particular, there is increasing evidence that models significantly underestimate low frequency variability in the North Atlantic compared to available observations. Such model deficiencies can amplify the relative influence of external or stochastic atmospheric forcing in generating (multi)decadal variability, i.e., AMV, at the expense of ocean dynamics. Here, a succinct overview of the current understanding of the (North) Atlantic Ocean's role on the regional and global climate, including some outstanding questions, will be presented. In addition, a few examples of the climate impacts of the AMV via atmospheric teleconnections from a set of coupled simulations, also considering the relative roles of its tropical and extratropical components, will be highlighted.

Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2015-04-01

Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705.

Local and large-scale atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic sea ice and ocean warming in the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, David F.; Cassano, John J.; Serreze, Mark C.

2012-06-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to explore the sensitivity of the large-scale atmospheric energy and moisture budgets to prescribed changes in Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Observed sea ice fractions and SSTs from 1996 and 2007, representing years of high and low sea ice extent, are used as lower boundary conditions. A pan-Arctic domain extending into the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans is used. ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1994 to 2008 are employed as initial and lateral forcing data for each high and low sea ice simulation. The addition of a third ensemble, with a mixed SST field between years 1996 and 2007 (using 2007 SSTs above 66°N and 1996 values below), results in a total of three 15-member ensembles. Results of the simulations show both local and remote responses to reduced sea ice. The local polar cap averaged response is largest in October and November, dominated by increased turbulent heat fluxes resulting in vertically deep heating and moistening of the Arctic atmosphere. This warmer and moister atmosphere is associated with an increase in cloud cover, affecting the surface and atmospheric energy budgets. There is an enhancement of the hydrologic cycle, with increased evaporation in areas of sea ice loss paired with increased precipitation. Most of the Arctic climate response results from within-Arctic changes, although some changes in the hydrologic cycle reflect circulation responses to midlatitude SST forcing, highlighting the general sensitivity of the Arctic climate.

Ocean-Ice Sheet Interactions in the Norwegian Sea and Teleconnections to Low Latitude Hydrology and Atmospheric Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brendryen, J.; Hannisdal, B.; Haaga, K. A.; Haflidason, H.; Castro, D. D.; Grasmo, K. J.; Sejrup, H. P.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Kelly, M. J.; Lu, Y.

2016-12-01

Abrupt millennial scale climatic events known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a defining feature of the Quaternary climate system dynamics in the North Atlantic and beyond. We present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of ocean-ice sheet interactions in the Norwegian Sea spanning the interval between 50 and 150 ka BP. A comparison with low latitude records indicates a very close connection between the high northern latitude ocean-ice sheet interactions and large scale changes in low latitude atmospheric circulation and hydrology even on sub-millennial scales. The records are placed on a common precise radiometric chronology based on correlations to U/Th dated speleothem records from China and the Alps. This enables a comparison of the records to orbital and other climatically important parameters such as U/Th dated sea-level data from corals and speleothems. We explore the drive-response relationships in these coupled systems with the information transfer (IT) and the convergent cross mapping (CCM) analytical techniques. These methods employ conceptually different approaches to detect the relative strength and directionality of potentially chaotic and nonlinearly coupled systems. IT is a non-parametric measure of information transfer between data records based on transfer entropy, while CCM relies on delay reconstructions using Takens' theorem. This approach enables us to address how the climate system processes interact and how this interaction is affected by external forcing from for example greenhouse gases and orbital variability.

Identifying Meteorological Controls on Open and Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection as Associated with Marine Cold Air Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, Isabel; Wood, Robert; Fletcher, Jennifer

Marine low clouds are key influencers of the climate and contribute significantly to uncertainty in model climate sensitivity due to their small scale and complex processes. Many low clouds occur in large-scale cellular patterns, known as open and closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC), which have significantly different radiative and microphysical properties. Investigating MCC development and meteorological controls will improve our understanding of their impacts on the climate. We conducted an examination of time-varying meteorological conditions associated with satellite-determined open and closed MCC. The spatial and temporal patterns of MCC clouds were compared with key meteorological control variables calculated from ERA-Interim Reanalysis to highlight dependencies and major differences. This illustrated the influence of environmental stability and surface forcing as well as the role of marine cold air outbreaks (MCAO, the movement of cold air from polar-regions across warmer waters) in MCC cloud formation. Such outbreaks are important to open MCC development and may also influence the transition from open to closed MCC. Our results may lead to improvements in the parameterization of cloudiness and advance the simulation of marine low clouds. National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Grant (DGE-1256082).

Effects of forcing time scale on the simulated turbulent flows and turbulent collision statistics of inertial particles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosa, B., E-mail: bogdan.rosa@imgw.pl; Parishani, H.; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California 92697-3100

2015-01-15

In this paper, we study systematically the effects of forcing time scale in the large-scale stochastic forcing scheme of Eswaran and Pope [“An examination of forcing in direct numerical simulations of turbulence,” Comput. Fluids 16, 257 (1988)] on the simulated flow structures and statistics of forced turbulence. Using direct numerical simulations, we find that the forcing time scale affects the flow dissipation rate and flow Reynolds number. Other flow statistics can be predicted using the altered flow dissipation rate and flow Reynolds number, except when the forcing time scale is made unrealistically large to yield a Taylor microscale flow Reynoldsmore » number of 30 and less. We then study the effects of forcing time scale on the kinematic collision statistics of inertial particles. We show that the radial distribution function and the radial relative velocity may depend on the forcing time scale when it becomes comparable to the eddy turnover time. This dependence, however, can be largely explained in terms of altered flow Reynolds number and the changing range of flow length scales present in the turbulent flow. We argue that removing this dependence is important when studying the Reynolds number dependence of the turbulent collision statistics. The results are also compared to those based on a deterministic forcing scheme to better understand the role of large-scale forcing, relative to that of the small-scale turbulence, on turbulent collision of inertial particles. To further elucidate the correlation between the altered flow structures and dynamics of inertial particles, a conditional analysis has been performed, showing that the regions of higher collision rate of inertial particles are well correlated with the regions of lower vorticity. Regions of higher concentration of pairs at contact are found to be highly correlated with the region of high energy dissipation rate.« less

Patterns of interannual climate variability in large marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Helena Cachanhuk; Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi; Kayano, Mary Toshie; Paes, Eduardo Tavares

2014-06-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of the Brazilian and western African Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) to local and remote forcing, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime shift. The analyses are based on the total and partial correlation between climate indices (Niño3, tropical South Atlantic (TSA), tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Antarctic oscillation (AAO) and oceanic and atmospheric variables (sea surface temperature (SST), wind stress, Ekman transport, sea level pressure and outgoing longwave radiation). Differences in the correlation fields between the cold and warm PDO indicate that this mode exerts a significant impact on the thermodynamic balance of the ocean-atmosphere system on the South Atlantic ocean, mainly in the South Brazil and Benguela LMEs. The PDO regime shift also resulted in an increase in the spatial variability of SST and wind stress anomalies, mainly along the western African LMEs. Another important finding is the strong AAO influence on the SST anomalies (SSTA) in the South Brazil LME. It is also striking that TSA modulates the relation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and SSTA, by reducing the influence of ENSO on SSTA during the warm PDO period in the North and East Brazil LMEs and in the Guinea Current LME. The relation between AAO and SSTA on the tropical area is also influenced by the TSA. The results shown here give a clear indication that future ecosystem-based management actions aimed at the conservation of marine resources under climate change need to consider the high complexity of basin-scale interactions between local and remote climate forcings, including their effects on the ocean-atmosphere system of the South Atlantic ocean.

Extracting the driving force from ozone data using slow feature analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Geli; Yang, Peicai; Zhou, Xiuji

2016-05-01

Slow feature analysis (SFA) is a recommended technique for extracting slowly varying features from a quickly varying signal. In this work, we apply SFA to total ozone data from Arosa, Switzerland. The results show that the signal of volcanic eruptions can be found in the driving force, and wavelet analysis of this driving force shows that there are two main dominant scales, which may be connected with the effect of climate mode such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar activity. The findings of this study represent a contribution to our understanding of the causality from observed climate data.

Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, K.; Ryves, D. B.; Anderson, N. J.; Bryant, C. L.; Tyler, J. J.

2014-08-01

Equatorial East Africa has a complex regional patchwork of climate regimes, sensitive to climate fluctuations over a variety of temporal and spatial scales during the late Holocene. Understanding how these changes are recorded in and interpreted from biological and geochemical proxies in lake sedimentary records remains a key challenge to answering fundamental questions regarding the nature, spatial extent and synchroneity of climatic changes seen in East African palaeo-records. Using a paired lake approach, where neighbouring lakes share the same geology, climate and landscape, it might be expected that the systems will respond similarly to external climate forcing. Sediment cores from two crater lakes in western Uganda spanning the last ~1000 years were examined to assess diatom community responses to late Holocene climate and environmental changes, and to test responses to multiple drivers using redundancy analysis (RDA). These archives provide annual to sub-decadal records of environmental change. Lakes Nyamogusingiri and Kyasanduka appear to operate as independent systems in their recording of a similar hydrological response signal via distinct diatom records. However, whilst their fossil diatom records demonstrate an individualistic, indirect response to external (e.g. climatic) drivers, the inferred lake levels show similar overall trends and reflect the broader patterns observed in Uganda and across East Africa. The lakes appear to be sensitive to large-scale climatic perturbations, with evidence of a dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. AD 1000-1200). The diatom record from Lake Nyamogusingiri suggests a drying climate during the main phase of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (ca. AD 1600-1800), whereas the diatom response from the shallower Lake Kyasanduka is more complex (with groundwater likely playing a key role), and may be driven more by changes in silica and other nutrients, rather than by lake level. The sensitivity of these two Ugandan lakes to regional climate drivers breaks down in ca. AD 1800, when major changes in the ecosystems appear to be a response to increasing cultural impacts within the lake catchments, although both proxy records appear to respond to the drought recorded across East Africa in the mid-20th century. The data highlight the complexity of diatom community responses to external drivers (climate or cultural), even in neighbouring, shallow freshwater lakes. This research also illustrates the importance of, and the need to move towards, a multi-lake, multi-proxy landscape approach to understanding regional hydrological change which will allow for rigorous testing of climate reconstructions, climate forcing and ecosystem response models.

Climate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing over the last 35 Ma.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Vleeschouwer, D.; Palike, H.; Vahlenkamp, M.; Crucifix, M.

2017-12-01

On a million-year time scale, the characteristics of insolation forcing caused by cyclical variations in the astronomical parameters of the Earth remain stable. Nevertheless, Earth's climate responded very differently to this forcing during different parts of the Cenozoic. The recently-published ∂18Obenthic megasplice (De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017) allowed for a clear visualization of these changes in global climate response to astronomical forcing. However, many open questions remain regarding how carbon-cycle dynamics influence Earth's climate sensitivity to astronomical climate forcing. To provide insight into the interaction between the carbon cycle and astronomical insolation forcing, we built a benthic carbon isotope (∂13Cbenthic) megasplice for the last 35 Ma, employing the same technique used to build the ∂18Obenthic megasplice. The ∂13Cbenthic megasplice exhibits a strong imprint of the 405 and 100-kyr eccentricity cycles throughout the last 35 Ma. This is intriguing, as the oxygen isotope megasplice looses its eccentricity imprint after the mid-Miocene climatic transition (MMCT; see Fig. 1 in De Vleeschouwer et al., 2017). In other words, the carbon cycle responded completely differently to astronomical forcing, compared to global climate during the late Miocene. We visualize this difference in response by the application of a Gaussian process, which renders the dependence of one variable (here ∂18Obenthic or ∂13Cbenthic) in a multidimensional space (here precession, obliquity and eccentricity). Together, the ∂13Cbenthic and ∂18Obenthic megasplices thus provide a unique tool for paleoclimatology, allowing for the quantification and visualization of the changing paleoclimate and carbon-cycle response to astronomical forcing throughout geologic time. References De Vleeschouwer, D., Vahlenkamp, M., Crucifix, M., Pälike, H., 2017. Alternating Southern and Northern Hemisphere climate response to astronomical forcing during the past 35 m.y. Geology 45, 375-378.

Recent Regional Climate State and Change - Derived through Downscaling Homogeneous Large-scale Components of Re-analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Von Storch, H.; Klehmet, K.; Geyer, B.; Li, D.; Schubert-Frisius, M.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-12-01

Global re-analyses suffer from inhomogeneities, as they process data from networks under development. However, the large-scale component of such re-analyses is mostly homogeneous; additional observational data add in most cases to a better description of regional details and less so on large-scale states. Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complementing the large-scale state of the re-analyses with regional detail - wherever the condition of homogeneity of the large-scales is fulfilled. Technically this can be done by using a regional climate model, or a global climate model, which is constrained on the large scale by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional risks - in particular marine risks - was identified. While the data density in Europe is considerably better than in most other regions of the world, even here insufficient spatial and temporal coverage is limiting risk assessments. Therefore, downscaled data-sets are frequently used by off-shore industries. We have run this system also in regions with reduced or absent data coverage, such as the Lena catchment in Siberia, in the Yellow Sea/Bo Hai region in East Asia, in Namibia and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Also a global (large scale constrained) simulation has been. It turns out that spatially detailed reconstruction of the state and change of climate in the three to six decades is doable for any region of the world.The different data sets are archived and may freely by used for scientific purposes. Of course, before application, a careful analysis of the quality for the intended application is needed, as sometimes unexpected changes in the quality of the description of large-scale driving states prevail.

CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF COASTAL HABITAT ALTERATIONS ON FISHERY RESOURCES: TOWARD PREDICTION AT REGIONAL SCALES

EPA Science Inventory

The integrity of aquatic ecosystems and habitats at the land-sea interface is challeneged by several forces, ranging from plot scale destruction and disturbance, to watershed scale perturbations, to global changes in climate and human demographis. The scientific challenge is to ...

On the possibility of ice on Greenland during the Eocene-Oligocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langebroek, Petra M.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Kathrine Pedersen, Vivi; Nele Meckler, A.; Gasson, Edward

2017-04-01

The Eocene-Oligocene transition ( 34 Ma) is one of the major climate transitions of the Cenozoic era. Atmospheric CO2 decreased from the high levels of the Greenhouse world (>1000 ppm) to values of about 600-700 ppm in the early Oligocene. High latitude temperatures dropped by several degrees, causing a large-scale expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet. Concurrently, in the Northern Hemisphere, the inception of ice caps on Greenland is suggested by indirect evidence from ice-rafted debris and changes in erosional regime. However, ice sheet models have not been able to simulate extensive ice on Greenland under the warm climate of the Eocene-Oligocene transition. We show that elevated bedrock topography is key in solving this inconsistency. During the late Eocene / early Oligocene, East Greenland bedrock elevations were likely higher than today due to tectonic and deep-Earth processes related to the break-up of the North Atlantic and the position of the Icelandic plume. When allowing for higher initial bedrock topography, we do simulate a large ice cap on Greenland under the still relatively warm climate of the early Oligocene. Ice inception takes place at high elevations in the colder regions of North and Northeast Greenland; with the size of the ice cap being strongly dependent on the climate forcing and the bedrock topography applied.

The effect of changing wind forcing on Antarctic ice shelf melting in high-resolution, global sea ice-ocean simulations with the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, Xylar; Price, Stephen; Petersen, Mark; Wolfe, Jonathan

2017-04-01

The capability for simulating sub-ice shelf circulation and submarine melting and freezing has recently been added to the U.S. Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). With this new capability, we use an eddy permitting ocean model to conduct two sets of simulations in the spirit of Spence et al. (GRL, 41, 2014), who demonstrate increased warm water upwelling along the Antarctic coast in response to poleward shifting and strengthening of Southern Ocean westerly winds. These characteristics, symptomatic of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), are projected to continue into the 21st century under anthropogenic climate change (Fyfe et al., J. Clim., 20, 2007). In our first simulation, we force the climate model using the standard CORE interannual forcing dataset (Large and Yeager; Clim. Dyn., 33, 2009). In our second simulation, we force our climate model using an altered version of CORE interannual forcing, based on the latter half of the full time series, which we take as a proxy for a future climate state biased towards a positive SAM. We compare ocean model states and sub-ice shelf melt rates with observations, exploring sources of model biases as well as the effects of the two forcing scenarios.

High-Resolution Climate Data Visualization through GIS- and Web-based Data Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Huang, G.

2017-12-01

Sound decisions on climate change adaptation rely on an in-depth assessment of potential climate change impacts at regional and local scales, which usually requires finer resolution climate projections at both spatial and temporal scales. However, effective downscaling of global climate projections is practically difficult due to the lack of computational resources and/or long-term reference data. Although a large volume of downscaled climate data has been make available to the public, how to understand and interpret the large-volume climate data and how to make use of the data to drive impact assessment and adaptation studies are still challenging for both impact researchers and decision makers. Such difficulties have become major barriers preventing informed climate change adaptation planning at regional scales. Therefore, this research will explore new GIS- and web-based technologies to help visualize the large-volume regional climate data with high spatiotemporal resolutions. A user-friendly public data portal, named Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP, http://ccdp.network), will be established to allow intuitive and open access to high-resolution regional climate projections at local scales. The CCDP offers functions of visual representation through geospatial maps and data downloading for a variety of climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind) at multiple spatial resolutions (i.e., 25 - 50 km) and temporal resolutions (i.e., annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly). The vast amount of information the CCDP encompasses can provide a crucial basis for assessing impacts of climate change on local communities and ecosystems and for supporting better decision making under a changing climate.

The uncertainties and causes of the recent changes in global evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Bo; Dai, Aiguo

2017-07-01

Recent studies have shown considerable changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) since the early 1980s, but the causes of these changes remain unclear. In this study, the relative contributions of external climate forcing and internal climate variability to the recent ET changes are examined. Three datasets of global terrestrial ET and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean ET are analyzed, respectively, to quantify the apparent and externally-forced ET changes, while the unforced ET variations are estimated as the apparent ET minus the forced component. Large discrepancies of the ET estimates, in terms of their trend, variability, and temperature- and precipitation-dependence, are found among the three datasets. Results show that the forced global-mean ET exhibits an upward trend of 0.08 mm day-1 century-1 from 1982 to 2010. The forced ET also contains considerable multi-year to decadal variations during the latter half of the 20th century that are caused by volcanic aerosols. The spatial patterns and interannual variations of the forced ET are more closely linked to precipitation than temperature. After removing the forced component, the global-mean ET shows a trend ranging from -0.07 to 0.06 mm day-1 century-1 during 1982-2010 with varying spatial patterns among the three datasets. Furthermore, linkages between the unforced ET and internal climate modes are examined. Variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are found to be consistently correlated with ET over many land areas among the ET datasets. The results suggest that there are large uncertainties in our current estimates of global terrestrial ET for the recent decades, and the greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol external forcings account for a large part of the apparent trend in global-mean terrestrial ET since 1982, but Pacific SST and other internal climate variability dominate recent ET variations and changes over most regions.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscal...

Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia

PubMed Central

Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine

2016-01-01

General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon. PMID:27561887

Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md; Fletcher, Christine

2016-08-26

General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon.

From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact

PubMed Central

Baron, Christian; Sultan, Benjamin; Balme, Maud; Sarr, Benoit; Traore, Seydou; Lebel, Thierry; Janicot, Serge; Dingkuhn, Michael

2005-01-01

General circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. This study analyses the bias introduced to crop simulation when climatic data is aggregated spatially or in time, resulting in loss of relevant variation. A detailed case study was conducted using historical weather data for Senegal, applied to the crop model SARRA-H (version for millet). The study was then extended to a 10°N–17° N climatic gradient and a 31 year climate sequence to evaluate yield sensitivity to the variability of solar radiation and rainfall. Finally, a down-scaling model called LGO (Lebel–Guillot–Onibon), generating local rain patterns from grid cell means, was used to restore the variability lost by aggregation. Results indicate that forcing the crop model with spatially aggregated rainfall causes yield overestimations of 10–50% in dry latitudes, but nearly none in humid zones, due to a biased fraction of rainfall available for crop transpiration. Aggregation of solar radiation data caused significant bias in wetter zones where radiation was limiting yield. Where climatic gradients are steep, these two situations can occur within the same GCM grid cell. Disaggregation of grid cell means into a pattern of virtual synoptic stations having high-resolution rainfall distribution removed much of the bias caused by aggregation and gave realistic simulations of yield. It is concluded that coupling of GCM outputs with plot level crop models can cause large systematic errors due to scale incompatibility. These errors can be avoided by transforming GCM outputs, especially rainfall, to simulate the variability found at plot level. PMID:16433096

Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.

Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liming

2016-01-01

Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor. PMID:27538725

78 FR 11632 - Record of Decision for Land Acquisition and Airspace Establishment To Support Large-Scale Marine...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-19

... Establishment To Support Large-Scale Marine Air Ground Task Force Live- Fire and Maneuver Training at the Marine...), announces its decision to establish a large-scale Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) training facility at... through the Federal Aviation Administration the establishment and modification of military Special Use...

Reflections on the nature of non-linear responses of the climate to forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ditlevsen, Peter

2017-04-01

On centennial to multi-millennial time scales the paleoclimatic record shows that climate responds in a very non-linear way to the external forcing. Perhaps most puzzling is the change in glacial period duration at the Middle Pleistocene Transition. From a dynamical systems perspective, this could be a change in frequency locking between the orbital forcing and the climatic response or it could be a non-linear resonance phenomenon. In both cases the climate system shows a non-trivial oscillatory behaviour. From the records it seems that this behaviour can be described by an effective dynamics on a low-dimensional slow manifold. These different possible dynamical behaviours will be discussed. References: Arianna Marchionne, Peter Ditlevsen, and Sebastian Wieczorek, "Three types of nonlinear resonances", arXiv:1605.00858 Peter Ashwin and Peter Ditlevsen, "The middle Pleistocene transition as a generic bifurcation on a slow manifold", Climate Dynamics, 45, 2683, 2015. Peter D. Ditlevsen, "The bifurcation structure and noise assisted transitions in the Pleistocene glacial cycles", Paleoceanography, 24, PA3204, 2009

Linkages Between Ozone-depleting Substances, Tropospheric Oxidation and Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voulgarakis, A.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.

2013-01-01

Coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere allows changes in stratospheric ozone abundances to affect tropospheric chemistry. Large-scale effects from such changes on chemically produced tropospheric aerosols have not been systematically examined in past studies. We use a composition-climate model to investigate potential past and future impacts of changes in stratospheric ozone depleting substances (ODS) on tropospheric oxidants and sulfate aerosols. In most experiments, we find significant responses in tropospheric photolysis and oxidants, with small but significant effects on methane radiative forcing. The response of sulfate aerosols is sizeable when examining the effect of increasing future nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. We also find that without the regulation of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) through the Montreal Protocol, sulfate aerosols could have increased by 2050 by a comparable amount to the decreases predicted due to relatively stringent sulfur emissions controls. The individual historical radiative forcings of CFCs and N2O through their indirect effects on methane (-22.6mW/sq. m for CFCs and -6.7mW/sq. m for N2O) and sulfate aerosols (-3.0mW/sq. m for CFCs and +6.5mW/sq. m for N2O when considering the direct aerosol effect) discussed here are non-negligible when compared to known historical ODS forcing. Our results stress the importance of accounting for stratosphere-troposphere, gas-aerosol and composition-climate interactions when investigating the effects of changing emissions on atmospheric composition and climate.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

Current challenges in distinguishing climatic and anthropogenic contributions to alpine grassland variation on the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Li, Lanhui; Zhang, Yili; Liu, Linshan; Wu, Jianshuang; Li, Shicheng; Zhang, Haiyan; Zhang, Binghua; Ding, Mingjun; Wang, Zhaofeng; Paudel, Basanta

2018-06-01

Quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on grassland dynamics is an essential step for developing sustainable grassland ecosystem management strategies. However, the direction and magnitude of climate change and human activities in driving alpine grassland dynamic over the Tibetan Plateau remain under debates. Here, we systematically reviewed the relevant studies on the methods, main conclusions, and causes for the inconsistency in distinguishing the respective contribution of climatic and anthropogenic forces to alpine grassland dynamic. Both manipulative experiments and traditional statistical analysis show that climate warming increase biomass in alpine meadows and decrease in alpine steppes, while both alpine steppes and meadows benefit from an increase in precipitation or soil moisture. Overgrazing is a major factor for the degradation of alpine grassland in local areas with high level of human activity intensity. However, across the entire Tibetan Plateau and its subregions, four views characterize the remaining controversies: alpine grassland changes are primarily due to (1) climatic force, (2) nonclimatic force, (3) combination of anthropogenic and climatic force, or (4) alternation of anthropogenic and climatic force. Furthermore, these views also show spatial inconsistencies. Differences on the source and quality of remote sensing products, the structure and parameter of models, and overlooking the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of human activity intensity contribute to current disagreements. In this review, we highlight the necessity for taking the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of human activity intensity into account in the models of attribution assessment, and the importance for accurate validation of climatic and anthropogenic contribution to alpine grassland variation at multiple scales for future studies.

Impact of tropospheric sulphate aerosols on the terrestrial carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.

2015-01-01

Tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSAs) may oxidise the photosynthesising tissues if they are taken up by plants. A parameterisation of this impact of tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSAs) on the terrestrial gross primary production is suggested. This parameterisation is implemented into the global Earth system model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of the Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). With this coupled model, the simulations are performed which are forced by common anthropogenic and natural climate forcings based on historical reconstructions followed by the RCP 8.5 scenario. The model response to sulphate aerosol loading is subdivided into the climatic (related to the influence of TSA on the radiative transport in the atmosphere) and ecological (related to the toxic influence of sulphate aerosol on terrestrial plants) impacts. We found that the former basically dominates over the latter on a global scale and modifies the responses of the global vegetation and soil carbon stocks to external forcings by 10%. At a regional scale, however, ecological impact may be as much important as the climatic one.

Thermohaline circulation and its box models simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazyura, Kateryna; Polonsky, Alexander; Sannikov, Viktor

2014-05-01

Ocean Thermochaline circulation (THC) is the part of large-scale World Ocean circulation and one of the main climate system components. It is generated by global meridional density gradients, which are controlled by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. THC regulates climate variability on different timescales (from decades to thousands years) [Stocker (2000), Clark (2002)]. Study of paleoclimatic evidences of abrupt and dramatic changes in ocean-atmosphere system in the past (such as, Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events or Younger Dryas, see e.g., [Rahmstorf (2002), Alley & Clark(1999)]) shows that these events are connected with THC regimes. At different times during last 120,000 years, three THC modes have prevailed in the Atlantic. They can be labeled as stadial, interstadial and Heinrich modes or as cold, warm and off mode. THC collapse (or thermohaline catastrophe) can be one of the consequences of global warming (including modern anthropogenic climate changes occurring at the moment). The ideas underlying different box-model studies, possibility of thermochaline catastrophe in present and past are discussed in this presentation. Response of generalized four box model of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation [developing the model of Griffies & Tzippermann (1995)] on periodic, stochastic and linear forcing is studied in details. To estimate climatic parameters of the box model we used monthly salinity and temperature data of ECMWF operational Ocean Reanalysis System 3 (ORA-S3) and data from atmospheric NCEP/NCAR reanalysis on precipitation, and heat fluxes for 1959-2011. Mean values, amplitude of seasonal cycle, amplitudes and periods of typical interdecadal oscillations, white noise level, linear trend coefficients and their significance level were estimated for every hydrophysical parameter. In response to intense freshwater or heat forcing, THC regime can change resulting in thermohaline catastrophe. We analyze relevant thresholds of external forcing in cases of using linear and nonlinear seawater state equation. In the frame of four-box model it is shown that: 1) The occurrence of the thermohaline catastrophe, which is likely happened at Younger Dryas period or developed as Heinrich events in the past, is improbable in modern climate epoch. 2) Choice of nonlinear seawater equitation of state leads to stabilization of warm mode of THC, which corresponds to modern climate state. 3) Typical white noise in heat and freshwater fluxes leads to generation of multidecadal oscillations of volume transport. Time-scale of these oscillations coincides with Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation periodicity. So, it is shown that that recent climate is characterized by quasi-periodical stable multidecadal THC warm regime. Stocker, T. F., 2000: Past and future reorganisations in the climate system. Quat. Sci.Rev, Vol. 19, P.301-319. Clark U., 2002: The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change. Nature. Vol. 415, P.863-869. Rahmstorf S., 2002: Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120000 years. Nature. Vol. 419, P.207-214. Alley, R. B. & Clark, P. U., 1999: The deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere: a global perspective. Annu.Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. Vol. 27, P.149-182. Griffies S.M., Tziperman E., 1995: A linear thermohaline oscillator driven by stochastic atmospheric forcing. Journal of Climate. Vol. 8. P. 2440-2453.

Effects of local and large-scale climate patterns on estuarine resident fishes: The example of Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyitrai, Daniel; Martinho, Filipe; Dolbeth, Marina; Rito, João; Pardal, Miguel A.

2013-12-01

Large-scale and local climate patterns are known to influence several aspects of the life cycle of marine fish. In this paper, we used a 9-year database (2003-2011) to analyse the populations of two estuarine resident fishes, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus, in order to determine their relationships with varying environmental stressors operating over local and large scales. This study was performed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal. Firstly, the variations in abundance, growth, population structure and secondary production were evaluated. These species appeared in high densities in the beginning of the study period, with subsequent occasional high annual density peaks, while their secondary production was lower in dry years. The relationships between yearly fish abundance and the environmental variables were evaluated separately for both species using Spearman correlation analysis, considering the yearly abundance peaks for the whole population, juveniles and adults. Among the local climate patterns, precipitation, river runoff, salinity and temperature were used in the analyses, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and sea surface temperature (SST) were tested as large-scale factors. For P. microps, precipitation and NAO were the significant factors explaining abundance of the whole population, the adults and the juveniles as well. Regarding P. minutus, for the whole population, juveniles and adults river runoff was the significant predictor. The results for both species suggest a differential influence of climate patterns on the various life cycle stages, confirming also the importance of estuarine resident fishes as indicators of changes in local and large-scale climate patterns, related to global climate change.

Validating Large Scale Networks Using Temporary Local Scale Networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USDA NRCS Soil Climate Analysis Network and NOAA Climate Reference Networks are nationwide meteorological and land surface data networks with soil moisture measurements in the top layers of soil. There is considerable interest in scaling these point measurements to larger scales for validating ...

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Molina, Mario J.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol–climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by −2.5 and +1.3 W m−2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

2014-05-13

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

2015-04-01

Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the average potential of future hydropower production; it will likely make hydropower more profitable. Yet, the uncertainty in climate change projections remains large and risks are significant, adaptation strategies should ideally consider a worst case scenario to ensure robust power generation. Overall a diversified power generation portfolio, anchored in hydropower and supported by other renewables and fossil fuel-based energy sources, is the best solution for Tanzania

Climate consequences of large-scale land-use changes as climate engineering tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Dorothea; Kracher, Daniela; Reick, Christian; Pongratz, Julia

2015-04-01

Terrestrial carbon sinks are much-discussed as climate engineering methods both in politics and science. The debate focuses mostly on their potential for carbon sequestration and fossil-fuel substitution, whereas other effects such as changes in heat and water fluxes are often ignored. We assess potentials and side-effects of two different land-use types suggested as climate engineering tools, forest and herbaceous biomass plantations. We integrate herbaceous biomass plantations as new plant functional types into the land component (JSBACH) of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Herbaceous biomass plantations alter surface albedo, carbon and water cycles compared to forests. We adapted the JSBACH carbon cycle (assimilation and respiration) to reflect a highly productive biomass grass and the phenology to account for harvests just before the beginning of the growing season. The harvested material is transferred to a separate pool that can be adapted to reflect different biomass utilization pathways. Where possible, the model was validated using yield measurements and water-use efficiency calculations available from literature data. We compare the potentials and side-effects of afforestation and herbaceous biomass plantations in a plausible global scenario: under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, large areas of agricultural lands are projected to be abandoned as food production intensifies on the most productive soils. We intend to model the climatic consequences of using these abandoned croplands for afforestation or biomass plantations, under an RCP 8.5 forcing (high CO2 emissions). We emphasize differences between biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use on climate and how these factors interact on the local and global scale. Apart from direct climatic effects (energy, water, and carbon fluxes), we attempt to consistently account for fossil-fuel substitution effects of biomass plantations in a coupled model. This study comprises the fist part of a larger project analyzing four different land-use types: unmanaged forest, managed forest, woody biomass plantations and herbaceous biomass plantations. Our study is part of the interdisciplinary program 'Climate Engineering: Risks, Challenges and Opportunities?' which allows for a consistent comparison of land-based climate engineering to other methods such as solar radiation management or ocean alkalinization.

Fire Influences on Atmospheric Composition, Air Quality, and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Field, Robert D.

2015-01-01

Fires impact atmospheric composition through their emissions, which range from long-lived gases to short-lived gases and aerosols. Effects are typically larger in the tropics and boreal regions but can also be substantial in highly populated areas in the northern mid-latitudes. In all regions, fire can impact air quality and health. Similarly, its effect on large-scale atmospheric processes, including regional and global atmospheric chemistry and climate forcing, can be substantial, but this remains largely unexplored. The impacts are primarily realised in the boundary layer and lower free troposphere but can also be noticeable in upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, for the most intense fires. In this review, we summarise the recent literature on findings related to fire impact on atmospheric composition, air quality and climate. We explore both observational and modelling approaches and present information on key regions and on the globe as a whole. We also discuss the current and future directions in this area of research, focusing on the major advances in emission estimates, the emerging efforts to include fire as a component in Earth system modelling and the use of modelling to assess health impacts of fire emissions.

NGH: A Dynamic Factor in Deep Water Sediments & the Geological Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Max, M. D.; Johnson, A. H.

2012-12-01

Prior to identification of natural gas hydrate (NGH) in marine sediments, gravity and tectonic forces were the recognized dynamic forces that could cause disruption in deep marine sediments. NGH introduces a new dynamic factor into continental slope and rise sediments as well as sediments in the deeper parts of some continental shelves. Two critical elements interplay to provide for a slow acting, long-term NGH-dynamic cyclical system. First, NGH forms spontaneously from dissolved natural gas generally in a passive manner without causing any other than very subtle alterations to the megascopic sediment structure. When NGH forms in either dispersed form in muddy sediments or in concentrated form in veins or nodules or in porosity in sandy sediments, it increases overall mechanical strength. Second, when it dissociates, mechanical strength weakens to the point where shear strengths can approach zero. Because the chemical reaction of NGH is highly reversible, changes in sea level that affect pressure, and changes in seafloor temperature can alter rapidly the tendency of NGH to either crystallize or dissociate, with consequent structural and morphological effects. The cyclicity of the Earth's climate introduces a mechanism for periodically injecting overpressured gas into marine sediments as the gas hydrate stability zones (GHSZ) undergoes changes to its thickness and depth. Natural climate change has the potential to produce overpressured natural gas converted from NGH in marine sediments periodically. In-place disruption would consist of disrupted sandy beds, chaotic textures on all scales, intrusion effects, limited mass flow features, dramatic sediment mixing not related to large scale movement and sediment redeposition from fluidized beds. Mobilization would involve larger scale sediment mass flow effects that would be indistinguishable from olistostromic melanges postulated to be initiated by tectonic or gravitational forces. The earliest interpretation of this fluidization type of large scale sediment disruption in the later part of the 1900s identified them as tectonic in origin. Subsequently, in the 1970s, it was recognized that the features were more likely a product of soft sediment deformation whose initiator might be gravity or tectonic forces, of 'tectonosedimentary' origin. The action of the NGH cycle to initiate sedimentary disruption may more readily explain many of these features in the geological record. Drill core taken across seismic reflection sediment redeposition features that otherwise show no tectonic activity related movement in abandoned GHSZ could provide important evidence for the long-term geological action of the NGH cycle.

Green roofs'retention performances in different climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Hellies, Matteo; Deidda, Roberto

2017-04-01

The ongoing process of global urbanization contributes to increasing stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces, threatening also water quality. Green roofs have been proved to be an innovative stormwater management tool to partially restore natural state, enhancing interception, infiltration and evapotranspiration fluxes. The amount of water that is retained within green roofs depends mainly on both soil properties and climate. The evaluation of the retained water is not trivial since it depends on the stochastic soil moisture dynamics. The aim of this work is to explore performances of green roofs, in terms of water retention, as a function of their depth considering different climate regimes. The role of climate in driving water retention has been mainly represented by rainfall and potential evapotranspiration dynamics, which are simulated by a simple conceptual weather generator at daily time scale. The model is able to describe seasonal (in-phase and counter-phase) and stationary behaviors of climatic forcings. Model parameters have been estimated on more than 20,000 historical time series retrieved worldwide. Exemplifying cases are discussed for five different climate scenarios, changing the amplitude and/or the phase of daily mean rainfall and evapotranspiration forcings. The first scenario represents stationary climates, in two other cases the daily mean rainfall or the potential evapotranspiration evolve sinusoidally. In the latter two cases, we simulated the in-phase or in counter-phase conditions. Stochastic forcings have been then used as an input to a simple conceptual hydrological model which simulate soil moisture dynamics, evapotranspiration fluxes, runoff and leakage from soil pack at daily time scale. For several combinations of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, the analysis allowed assessing green roofs' retaining capabilities, at annual time scale. Provided abacus allows a first approximation of possible hydrological benefits deriving from the implementation of intensive or extensive green roofs in different world areas, i.e. less input to sewer systems.

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Simulation of seasonal cloud forcing anomalies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randall, D.A.

1990-08-01

One useful way to classify clouds is according to the processes that generate them. There are three main cloud-formation agencies: deep convection; surface evaporation; large-scale lifting in the absence of conditional instability. Although traditionally clouds have been viewed as influencing the atmospheric general circulation primarily through the release of latent heat, the atmospheric science literature contains abundant evidence that, in reality, clouds influence the general circulation through four more or less equally important effects: interactions with the solar and terrestrial radiation fields; condensation and evaporation; precipitation; small-scale circulations within the atmosphere. The most advanced of the current generation of GCMsmore » include parameterizations of all four effects. Until recently there has been lingering skepticism, in the general circulation modeling community, that the radiative effects of clouds significantly influence the atmospheric general circulation. GCMs have provided the proof that the radiative effects of clouds are important for the general circulation of the atmosphere. An important concept in analysis of the effects of clouds on climate is the cloud radiative forcing (CRF), which is defined as the difference between the radiative flux which actually occurs in the presence of clouds, and that which would occur if the clouds were removed but the atmospheric state were otherwise unchanged. We also use the term CRF to denote warming or cooling tendencies due to cloud-radiation interactions. Cloud feedback is the change in CRF that accompanies a climate change. The present study concentrates on the planetary CRF and its response to external forcing, i.e. seasonal change.« less

Laboratory and theoretical models of planetary-scale instabilities and waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hart, John E.; Toomre, Juri

1991-01-01

Meteorologists and planetary astronomers interested in large-scale planetary and solar circulations recognize the importance of rotation and stratification in determining the character of these flows. The two outstanding problems of interest are: (1) the origins and nature of chaos in baroclinically unstable flows; and (2) the physical mechanisms responsible for high speed zonal winds and banding on the giant planets. The methods used to study these problems, and the insights gained, are useful in more general atmospheric and climate dynamic settings. Because the planetary curvature or beta-effect is crucial in the large scale nonlinear dynamics, the motions of rotating convecting liquids in spherical shells were studied using electrohydrodynamic polarization forces to generate radial gravity and centrally directed buoyancy forces in the laboratory. The Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC) experiments performed on Spacelab 3 in 1985 were analyzed. The interpretation and extension of these results have led to the construction of efficient numerical models of rotating convection with an aim to understand the possible generation of zonal banding on Jupiter and the fate of banana cells in rapidly rotating convection as the heating is made strongly supercritical. Efforts to pose baroclinic wave experiments for future space missions using a modified version of the 1985 instrument have led us to develop theoretical and numerical models of baroclinic instability. Some surprising properties of both these models were discovered.

Decadal-scale sensitivity of Northeast Greenland ice flow to errors in surface mass balance using ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, N.-J.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Box, J. E.

2013-06-01

The behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is considered a major contributor to sea level changes, is best understood on century and longer time scales. However, on decadal time scales, its response is less predictable due to the difficulty of modeling surface climate, as well as incomplete understanding of the dynamic processes responsible for ice flow. Therefore, it is imperative to understand how modeling advancements, such as increased spatial resolution or more comprehensive ice flow equations, might improve projections of ice sheet response to climatic trends. Here we examine how a finely resolved climate forcing influences a high-resolution ice stream model that considers longitudinal stresses. We simulate ice flow using a two-dimensional Shelfy-Stream Approximation implemented within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and use uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the model to calculate the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to errors in surface mass balance (SMB) forcing. Our results suggest that the model tends to smooth ice velocities even when forced with extreme errors in SMB. Indeed, errors propagate linearly through the model, resulting in discharge uncertainty of 16% or 1.9 Gt/yr. We find that mass flux is most sensitive to local errors but is also affected by errors hundreds of kilometers away; thus, an accurate SMB map of the entire basin is critical for realistic simulation. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses indicate that SMB forcing needs to be provided at a resolution of at least 40 km.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Paleoclimate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, Patrick J.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.; Ohring, G.

2014-01-01

As host to one of the major continental-scale ice sheets, and with considerable spatial variability of climate related to its physiography and location, North America has experienced a wide range of climates over time. The aim of this chapter is to review the history of those climate variations, focusing in particular on the continental-scale climatic variations between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 years ago or 21 ka) and the present, which were as large in amplitude as any experienced over a similar time span during the past several million years. As background to that discussion, the climatic variations over the Cenozoic (the past 65.5 Myr, or 65.5 Ma to present) that led ultimately to the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at 2.59 Ma will also be discussed. Superimposed on the large-amplitude, broad-scale variations from the LGM to present, are climatic variations on millennial-to-decadal scales, and these will be reviewed in particular for the Holocene (11.7 ka to present) and the past millennium.

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century. However, the most prominent feature of the new coral records is an unprecedented freshening trend since the mid-20th century, in line with global climate models (GCMs) projections of enhanced hydrological patterns (wet areas are getting wetter and vice versa) under greenhouse forcing. Taken together, the coral records provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends that may improve regional climate projections in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.
Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity Proxy Records

Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/surface Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Gautam, R.; Lau, W. K.; Tsay, S.; Sun, W.; Kim, K.; Chern, J.; Colarco, P. R.; Hsu, N. C.; Lin, N.

2011-12-01

Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation. In addition to modeling study, we will also present the most recent results on aerosol properties, regional aerosol absorption, and radiative forcing estimation based on NASA's operational satellite and ground-based remote sensing. Observational results show spatial gradients in aerosol loading and solar absorption accounting over Indo-Gangetic Plains during the pre-monsoon season. The direct radiative forcing of aerosols at surface to be -19-23 Wm-2 (12-15 % of the surface solar insolation) over NW India is estimated using an observational approach. A comparison of aerosol radiative forcing between numerical simulation and observational estimate will be presented. Overall, this work will demonstrate the aerosol direct effects from both modeling and observation perspectives, and further to assess the physical processes underlying the aerosol radiative feedbacks and possible impacts on the large-scale South Asian monsoon system.

Proximate environmental forcing in fine-scale geochemical records of calcareous couplets (Upper Cretaceous and Palaeocene of the Basque-Cantabrian Basin, eastern North Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez Berrocoso, Álvaro; Elorza, Javier; MacLeod, Kenneth G.

2013-02-01

Calcareous couplets are key elements in reconstructing the evolution of a sedimentary basin due to the influence of forcing mechanisms such as climate, sea level and tectonism on their depositional patterns. Proposed forcing mechanisms, however, are often not mutually exclusive and even constraining the relative importance of different processes is problematic. Added to the question of discriminating forcing mechanisms, a major challenge is to produce high-sampling density so that observations lie within temporal resolutions equal to or finer than the timescales on which different forcing operates. Here, we show fine-scale (1 sample/~ 2 cm) CaCO3, δ18O and δ13C records and sedimentological observations from three different sites (Isla de Castro, Sopelana-Ma, and Sopelana-Da) with calcareous couplets in the Basque Cantabrian Basin (eastern North Atlantic) to illustrate the potential of fine-sampling strategies to help distinguish proximate environmental forcing. Partial redistribution of carbonate during burial diagenesis has been proposed for these sediments. Our CaCO3, δ18O and δ13C data could thus be dismissed as diagenetic signals if only one sample was collected from each bed. Detailed observations of the fine-scale geochemical records, however, challenge purely diagenetic explanations. Combined with sedimentology, the CaCO3, δ18O and δ13C values, partially altered by diagenesis, are interpreted to have resulted from alternating climates. The proximate forcing through which alternating climates caused the geochemical patterns, though, was different in each section, due to their specific palaeogeographic positions in the basin and the properties of the seawater masses. The proximity of continental areas of high relief to the Isla de Castro section supported a high continental influence during its deposition. The Sopelana-Ma sediments are assigned to a transgressive system tract, a condition that is interpreted to have promoted a high influence of oceanic processes in its depositional setting. Finally, a relatively cool, oxygen-rich water mass with high oxidation potential influenced the geochemical and depositional patterns of Sopelana-Da. Beyond the climatic and oceanographic dynamics inferred for a basin that linked the western Tethys with Boreal domains during major marine transgressions of the Late Cretaceous to Palaeocene, an implication of our work is that if similar fine-scale geochemical records were applied to calcareous couplets spanning major events in Earth's history (e.g., ocean anoxic events), alternative forcing scenarios leading to and out of these events could be discriminated.

Projecting 21st Century Snowpack Trends in the Western United States using Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhoades, A.; Huang, X.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Ullrich, P. A.

2015-12-01

The western USA is integrally reliant upon winter season snowpack, which supplies 3/4 of the region's fresh water and buffers against seasonal aridity on agricultural, ecosystem, and urban water demands. By the end of the 21st century, western USA snowpack (SWE) could decline by 40-70%, snowfall by 25-40%, more winter storms could tend towards rain rather than snow, and the peak timing of snowmelt will shift several weeks earlier in the season. Further, there has been evidence that mountain ranges could face more accelerated warming (elevational dependent warming) due to climate change. These future trends have largely been derived from global climate models (CMIP5) which can't resolve some of the more relatively narrow mountain ranges, like the California Sierra Nevada, in great detail. Therefore, due to the importance of orographic uplift on weather fronts, eastern Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies, atmospheric river events, and mesoscale convective systems, high-resolution global scale modeling techniques are necessary to properly resolve western USA mountain range climatology. Variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) are a promising next-generation technique to analyze both past and future hydroclimatic trends in the region. VRGCMs serve as a bridge between regional and global models by allowing for high-resolution in areas of interest, eliminate lateral boundary forcings (and resultant model biases), allow for more dynamically inclusive large-scale climate teleconnections, and require smaller simulation times and lower data storage demand (compared to conventional global models). This presentation focuses on validating these next-generation models as well as projecting future climate change scenario impacts on several of the western USA's key hydroclimate metrics (e.g., two-meter surface temperature, snow cover, snow water equivalent, and snowfall) to inform water managers and policy makers and offer resilience to climate change impacts facing the region.

Impacts of East Asian Sulfate Aerosols on Local and Remote Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic aerosols exert significant climate forcing, which increases with emissions following trends of growing population and industry. Globally, aerosols cause a net cooling, counteracting greenhouse gas warming; however, regional impacts vary since emissions are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. While European and North American emissions have decreased in recent decades, Asian, particularly East Asian, emissions continued to rise into the 21st century. In addition to links between Asian anthropogenic aerosols and significant local climate impacts - for example, changes to the Asian monsoon system - studies have also shown influences on remote climate. Sulfate aerosols are particularly important for East Asia, remaining at constant levels higher than column burdens of other aerosol species. If a concerted effort - as laid out by government policies aiming to improve air quality - is made, the effects of anthropogenic aerosols (due to their short atmospheric lifetime) could be quickly reversed. Thus, it is vital to understand the climate impact aerosols have had up to now to aid in determining what will happen in the future. We use transient climate modelling experiments with the Community Earth System Model to investigate the impacts of East Asian sulfate aerosols in the present day compared to 1950 (i.e. before rapid industrialisation in this region), focusing on dynamical mechanisms leading to the occurrence of such impacts, and how their influence can spread to remote regions. We find, in addition to significant monsoon impacts, noticeable shifts in large-scale circulation features such as the ITCZ and the Pacific Walker cell. Through diabatic heating responses, changes to upper-level atmospheric dynamics are evident, leading to downstream effects on surface climate - for example, surface cooling over Europe. Understanding of these impacts is vital when considering how the good intentions of air quality improvement might inadvertently have significant impacts on future climate on regional scales.

Astronomical forcing, insolation and millennial-scale climate variability: evidence from the North Atlantic Ocean (IODP Expedition 306, Site U1313) during the Early-Middle Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferretti, Patrizia; Crowhurst, Simon; Naafs, David; Barbante, Carlo

2015-04-01

Since the seminal work by Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton (1976), a plethora of studies mostly based on marine sediments collected during DSDP-ODP-IODP Expeditions has demonstrated a correlation between orbital variations and climatic change. However, information on how changes in orbital boundary conditions affected the frequency and amplitude of millennial-scale climate variability is still fragmentary. Here we examine the record of climatic conditions from MIS 23 to 17 (c. 920-670 ka) using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sedimentary sequence in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313) in order to evaluate the climate system's response in the millennial band to known orbitally induced insolation changes. Special emphasis is placed on Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19, an interglacial centred at around 785 ka during which the insolation appears comparable to the current orbital geometry: MIS 19 is characterised by a minimum of the 400-kyr eccentricity cycle, subdued amplitude of precessional changes, and small amplitude variations in insolation making this marine isotopic stage a potential astronomical analogue for the Holocene and its future evolution, if this remains governed by natural forcing (Loutre and Berger 2000). Benthic and planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope values indicate relatively stable conditions during the peak warmth of MIS 19, but sea-surface and deep-water reconstructions start diverging during the transition towards the glacial MIS 18, when large, cold excursions disrupt the surface waters whereas low amplitude millennial scale fluctuations persist in the deep waters as recorded by the oxygen isotope signal (Ferretti et al., 2015). The glacial inception occurred at ˜779 ka, in agreement with an increased abundance of tetra-unsaturated alkenones, reflecting the influence of icebergs and associated meltwater pulses and high-latitude waters at the study site. Using a variety of time series analysis techniques, we evaluate the evolution of millennial climate variability in response to changing orbital boundary conditions during the early-middle Pleistocene. Suborbital variability in both surface- and deep-water records is mainly concentrated at a period of ˜11 kyr and, additionally, at ˜5.8 and ˜3.9 kyr in the deep ocean; these periods are equal to harmonics of precession band oscillations. The fact that the response at the 11 kyr period increased over the same interval during which the amplitude of the response to the precessional cycle increased supports the notion that most of the variance in the 11 kyr band in the sedimentary record is nonlinearly transferred from precession band oscillations. Considering that these periodicities are important features in the equatorial and intertropical insolation, these observations are in line with the view that the low-latitude regions play an important role in the response of the climate system to the astronomical forcing. We conclude that the effect of the orbitally induced insolation is of fundamental importance in regulating the timing and amplitude of millennial scale climate variability. Ferretti P., Crowhurst S.J., Naafs B.D.A., Barbante C., 2015. Quaternary Science Reviews 108, 95-110. Hays J.D., Imbrie J., Shackleton N.J., 1976. Science 194, 1121-1132. Loutre M.F., Berger A., 2000. Climatic Change 46, 61-90.

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mocko, David M.; Sud, Y. C.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme events also helps the development of a system for decision-making, regarding natural and social disasters, and reducing impacts. Numerical experiments using this regional modeling system successfully modeled severe weather events in Brazil. Comparisons with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis outputs were made at resolutions of about 40- and 25-km of the regional climate model.

Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century

PubMed Central

White, M. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Jones, G. V.; Pal, J. S.; Giorgi, F.

2006-01-01

Premium wine production is limited to regions climatically conducive to growing grapes with balanced composition and varietal typicity. Three central climatic conditions are required: (i) adequate heat accumulation; (ii) low risk of severe frost damage; and (iii) the absence of extreme heat. Although wine production is possible in an extensive climatic range, the highest-quality wines require a delicate balance among these three conditions. Although historical and projected average temperature changes are known to influence global wine quality, the potential future response of wine-producing regions to spatially heterogeneous changes in extreme events is largely unknown. Here, by using a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario, we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and/or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35°C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture. Our results not only imply large changes for the premium wine industry, but also highlight the importance of incorporating fine-scale processes and extreme events in climate-change impact studies. PMID:16840557

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

Humboldtian science, Creole meteorology, and the discovery of human-caused climate change in South America.

PubMed

Cushman, Gregory T

2011-01-01

The belief that human land use is capable of causing large-scale climatic change lies at the root of modern conservation thought and policy. The origins and popularization of this belief were deeply politicized. Alexander von Humboldt's treatment of the Lake Valencia basin in Venezuela and the desert coast of Peru as natural laboratories for observing the interaction between geophysical and cultural forces was central to this discovery, as was Humboldt's belief that European colonialism was especially destructive to the land. Humboldt's overt cultivation of disciples was critical to building the prestige of this discovery and popularizing the Humboldtian scientific program, which depended fundamentally on local observers, but willfully marginalized chorographic knowledge systems. In creating new, global forms of environmental understanding, Humboldtian science also generated new forms of ignorance.

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2014-01-01

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation during and after the monsoon is likely to increase in both basins under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios; whereas, the pre-monsoon precipitation is likely to decrease. Peak monsoon precipitation is likely to shift from July to August, and may impact the livelihoods of large rural populations linked to subsistence agriculture in the basins. Uncertainty analysis of the downscaled precipitation indicated that the uncertainty in the downscaled precipitation was less than the uncertainty in the original CGCM3.1 precipitation; hence, the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation was a better input for the regional hydrological impact studies. However, downscaled precipitation from multiple GCMs is suggested for comprehensive impact studies.

Varying the forcing scale in low Prandtl number dynamos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandenburg, A.; Haugen, N. E. L.; Li, Xiang-Yu; Subramanian, K.

2018-06-01

Small-scale dynamos are expected to operate in all astrophysical fluids that are turbulent and electrically conducting, for example the interstellar medium, stellar interiors, and accretion disks, where they may also be affected by or competing with large-scale dynamos. However, the possibility of small-scale dynamos being excited at small and intermediate ratios of viscosity to magnetic diffusivity (the magnetic Prandtl number) has been debated, and the possibility of them depending on the large-scale forcing wavenumber has been raised. Here we show, using four values of the forcing wavenumber, that the small-scale dynamo does not depend on the scale-separation between the size of the simulation domain and the integral scale of the turbulence, i.e., the forcing scale. Moreover, the spectral bottleneck in turbulence, which has been implied as being responsible for raising the excitation conditions of small-scale dynamos, is found to be invariant under changing the forcing wavenumber. However, when forcing at the lowest few wavenumbers, the effective forcing wavenumber that enters in the definition of the magnetic Reynolds number is found to be about twice the minimum wavenumber of the domain. Our work is relevant to future studies of small-scale dynamos, of which several applications are being discussed.

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds

Treesearch

Martin Wilmking; Glenn P. Juday; Valerie A. Barber; Harold S.J. Zald

2004-01-01

Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth-climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely...

A topographically forced asymmetry in the martian circulation and climate.

PubMed

Richardson, Mark I; Wilson, R John

2002-03-21

Large seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in the martian climate system are generally ascribed to variations in solar heating associated with orbital eccentricity. As the orbital elements slowly change (over a period of >104 years), characteristics of the climate such as dustiness and the vigour of atmospheric circulation are thought to vary, as should asymmetries in the climate (for example, the deposition of water ice at the northern versus the southern pole). Such orbitally driven climate change might be responsible for the observed layering in Mars' polar deposits by modulating deposition of dust and water ice. Most current theories assume that climate asymmetries completely reverse as the angular distance between equinox and perihelion changes by 180 degrees. Here we describe a major climate mechanism that will not precess in this way. We show that Mars' global north-south elevation difference forces a dominant southern summer Hadley circulation that is independent of perihelion timing. The Hadley circulation, a tropical overturning cell responsible for trade winds, largely controls interhemispheric transport of water and the bulk dustiness of the atmosphere. The topography therefore imprints a strong handedness on climate, with water ice and the active formation of polar layered deposits more likely in the north.

Climate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe

PubMed Central

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales. PMID:24516601

Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

A Single Column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davies, Laura; Jakob, Christian; Cheung, K.

2013-06-27

Single column models (SCM) are useful testbeds for investigating the parameterisation schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best-estimate large-scale data prescribed. One method to address this uncertainty is to perform ensemble simulations of the SCM. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best-estimate product. This data is then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and 2 cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best-estimatemore » simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best-estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Systematic differences are also apparent in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables. The ensemble is further used to investigate relations between cloud variables and precipitation identifying large differences between CRM and SCM. This study highlights that additional information can be gained by performing ensemble simulations enhancing the information derived from models using the more traditional single best-estimate simulation.« less

Climate Drivers of Alaska Summer Stream Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieniek, P.; Bhatt, U. S.; Plumb, E. W.; Thoman, R.; Trammell, E. J.

2016-12-01

The temperature of the water in lakes, rivers and streams has wide ranging impacts from local water quality and fish habitats to global climate change. Salmon fisheries in Alaska, a critical source of food in many subsistence communities, are sensitive to large-scale climate variability and river and stream temperatures have also been linked with salmon production in Alaska. Given current and projected climate change, understanding the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate and river and stream temperatures is essential to better understand the changes that may occur with aquatic life in Alaska's waterways on which subsistence users depend. An analysis of Alaska stream temperatures in the context of reanalysis, downscaled, station and other climate data is undertaken in this study to fill that need. Preliminary analysis identified eight stream observation sites with sufficiently long (>15 years) data available for climate-scale analysis in Alaska with one station, Terror Creek in Kodiak, having a 30-year record. Cross-correlation of summer (June-August) water temperatures between the stations are generally high even though they are spread over a large geographic region. Correlation analysis of the Terror Creek summer observations with seasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Pacific broadly resembles the SST anomaly fields typically associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A similar result was found for the remaining stations and in both cases PDO-like correlation patterns also occurred in the preceding spring. These preliminary results demonstrate that there is potential to diagnose the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate system and Alaska stream temperatures.

Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, Nadine; Shindell, Drew T.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Amann, Markus; Cofala, Janusz; Streets, David G.

2006-06-01

We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies composition-climate model to an assessment of tropospheric O3, CH4, and sulfate at 2030. We compare four different anthropogenic emissions forecasts: A1B and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The projections encompass a wide range of possible man-made emissions changes. The A1B, B1, and CLE forecasts all suggest large increases in surface O3 and sulfate baseline pollution at tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially over the Indian subcontinent, where the pollution increases may be as large as 100%. The ranges of annual mean regional ground level O3 and sulfate changes across all scenarios are -10 to +30 ppbv and -1200 to +3000 pptv, respectively. Physical climate changes reduce future surface O3, but tend to increase ground level sulfate locally over North Africa because of an enhancement of aqueous-phase SO2 oxidation. For all examined future scenarios the combined sum of the CH4, O3, and sulfate radiative forcings is positive, even for the MFR scenario, because of the large reduction in sulfate. For A1B the forcings are as much as half of that of the preindustrial to present-day forcing for each species. For MFR the sign of the forcing for each species is reversed with respect to the other scenarios. At 2030, global changes in climate-sensitive natural emissions of CH4 from wetlands, NOx from lightning, and dimethyl sulfide from the ocean appear to be small (<5%).

Stochastic soil water balance under seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2015-01-01

The analysis of soil water partitioning in seasonally dry climates necessarily requires careful consideration of the periodic climatic forcing at the intra-annual timescale in addition to daily scale variabilities. Here, we introduce three new extensions to a stochastic soil moisture model which yields seasonal evolution of soil moisture and relevant hydrological fluxes. These approximations allow seasonal climatic forcings (e.g. rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) to be fully resolved, extending the analysis of soil water partitioning to account explicitly for the seasonal amplitude and the phase difference between the climatic forcings. The results provide accurate descriptions of probabilistic soil moisture dynamics under seasonal climates without requiring extensive numerical simulations. We also find that the transfer of soil moisture between the wet to the dry season is responsible for hysteresis in the hydrological response, showing asymmetrical trajectories in the mean soil moisture and in the transient Budyko's curves during the ‘dry-down‘ versus the ‘rewetting‘ phases of the year. Furthermore, in some dry climates where rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are in-phase, annual evapotranspiration can be shown to increase because of inter-seasonal soil moisture transfer, highlighting the importance of soil water storage in the seasonal context. PMID:25663808

Investigating links between climate and orography in the central Andes: Coupling erosion and precipitation using a physical-statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, Lauren E. L.; Barros, Ana P.

2014-06-01

Prior studies evaluated the interplay between climate and orography by investigating the sensitivity of relief to precipitation using the stream power erosion law (SPEL) for specified erosion rates. Here we address the inverse problem, inferring realistic spatial distributions of erosion rates for present-day topography and contemporaneous climate forcing. In the central Andes, similarities in the altitudinal distribution and density of first-order stream outlets and precipitation suggest a direct link between climate and fluvial erosion. Erosion rates are estimated with a Bayesian physical-statistical model based on the SPEL applied at spatial scales that capture joint hydrogeomorphic and hydrometeorological patterns within five river basins and one intermontane basin in Peru and Bolivia. Topographic slope and area data were generated from a high-resolution (˜90 m) digital elevation map, and mean annual precipitation was derived from 14 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42v.7 product and adjusted with rain gauge data. Estimated decadal-scale erosion rates vary between 0.68 and 11.59 mm/yr, with basin averages of 2.1-8.5 mm/yr. Even accounting for uncertainty in precipitation and simplifying assumptions, these values are 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than most millennial and million year timescale estimates in the central Andes, using various geological dating techniques (e.g., thermochronology and cosmogenic nuclides), but they are consistent with other decadal-scale estimates using landslide mapping and sediment flux observations. The results also reveal a pattern of spatially dependent erosion consistent with basin hypsometry. The modeling framework provides a means of remotely estimating erosion rates and associated uncertainties under current climate conditions over large regions. 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe.

PubMed

Ceglar, Andrej; Turco, Marco; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2017-06-15

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Evaluation of high-level clouds in cloud resolving model simulations with ARM and KWAJEX observations

DOE PAGES

Liu, Zheng; Muhlbauer, Andreas; Ackerman, Thomas

2015-11-05

In this paper, we evaluate high-level clouds in a cloud resolving model during two convective cases, ARM9707 and KWAJEX. The simulated joint histograms of cloud occurrence and radar reflectivity compare well with cloud radar and satellite observations when using a two-moment microphysics scheme. However, simulations performed with a single moment microphysical scheme exhibit low biases of approximately 20 dB. During convective events, two-moment microphysical overestimate the amount of high-level cloud and one-moment microphysics precipitate too readily and underestimate the amount and height of high-level cloud. For ARM9707, persistent large positive biases in high-level cloud are found, which are not sensitivemore » to changes in ice particle fall velocity and ice nuclei number concentration in the two-moment microphysics. These biases are caused by biases in large-scale forcing and maintained by the periodic lateral boundary conditions. The combined effects include significant biases in high-level cloud amount, radiation, and high sensitivity of cloud amount to nudging time scale in both convective cases. The high sensitivity of high-level cloud amount to the thermodynamic nudging time scale suggests that thermodynamic nudging can be a powerful ‘‘tuning’’ parameter for the simulated cloud and radiation but should be applied with caution. The role of the periodic lateral boundary conditions in reinforcing the biases in cloud and radiation suggests that reducing the uncertainty in the large-scale forcing in high levels is important for similar convective cases and has far reaching implications for simulating high-level clouds in super-parameterized global climate models such as the multiscale modeling framework.« less

Atlantic forcing of Western Mediterranean winter rain minima during the last 12,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielhofer, Christoph; Fletcher, William J.; Mischke, Steffen; De Batist, Marc; Campbell, Jennifer F. E.; Joannin, Sebastien; Tjallingii, Rik; El Hamouti, Najib; Junginger, Annett; Stele, Andreas; Bussmann, Jens; Schneider, Birgit; Lauer, Tobias; Spitzer, Katrin; Strupler, Michael; Brachert, Thomas; Mikdad, Abdeslam

2017-02-01

The limited availability of high-resolution continuous archives, insufficient chronological control, and complex hydro-climatic forcing mechanisms lead to many uncertainties in palaeo-hydrological reconstructions for the Western Mediterranean. In this study we present a newly recovered 19.63 m long core from Lake Sidi Ali in the North African Middle Atlas, a transition zone of Atlantic, Western Mediterranean and Saharan air mass trajectories. With a multi-proxy approach based on magnetic susceptibility, carbonate and total organic C content, core-scanning and quantitative XRF, stable isotopes of ostracod shells, charcoal counts, Cedrus pollen abundance, and a first set of diatom data, we reconstruct Western Mediterranean hydro-climatic variability, seasonality and forcing mechanisms during the last 12,000 yr. A robust chronological model based on AMS 14C dated pollen concentrates supports our high-resolution multi-proxy study. Long-term trends reveal low lake levels at the end of the Younger Dryas, during the mid-Holocene interval 6.6 to 5.4 cal ka BP, and during the last 3000 years. In contrast, lake levels are mostly high during the Early and Mid-Holocene. The record also shows sub-millennial- to centennial-scale decreases in Western Mediterranean winter rain at 11.4, 10.3, 9.2, 8.2, 7.2, 6.6, 6.0, 5.4, 5.0, 4.4, 3.5, 2.9, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7, 1.5, 1.0, 0.7, and 0.2 cal ka BP. Early Holocene winter rain minima are in phase with cooling events and millennial-scale meltwater discharges in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Our proxy parameters do not show so far a clear impact of Saharan air masses on Mediterranean hydro-climate in North Africa. However, a significant hydro-climatic shift at the end of the African Humid Period (∼5 ka) indicates a change in climate forcing mechanisms. The Late Holocene climate variability in the Middle Atlas features a multi-centennial-scale NAO-type pattern, with Atlantic cooling and Western Mediterranean winter rain maxima generally associated with solar minima.