The Role of Compensation Criteria to Minimize Face-Time Bias and Support Faculty Career Flexibility

PubMed Central

Elsbach, Kimberly D.; Villablanca, Amparo C.

2016-01-01

Work-life balance is important to recruitment and retention of the younger generation of medical faculty, but medical school flexibility policies have not been fully effective. We have reported that our school’s policies are underutilized due to faculty concerns about looking uncommitted to career or team. Since policies include leaves and accommodations that reduce physical presence, faculty may fear “face-time bias,” which negatively affects evaluation of those not “seen” at work. Face-time bias is reported to negatively affect salary and career progress. We explored face-time bias on a leadership level and described development of compensation criteria intended to mitigate face-time bias, raise visibility, and reward commitment and contribution to team/group goals. Leaders from 6 partner departments participated in standardized interviews and group meetings. Ten compensation plans were analyzed, and published literature was reviewed. Leaders did not perceive face-time issues but saw team pressure and perception of availability as performance motivators. Compensation plans were multifactor productivity based with many quantifiable criteria; few addressed team contributions. Using these findings, novel compensation criteria were developed based on a published model to mitigate face-time bias associated with team perceptions. Criteria for organizational citizenship to raise visibility and reward group outcomes were included. We conclude that team pressure and perception of availability have the potential to lead to bias and may contribute to underuse of flexibility policies. Recognizing organizational citizenship and cooperative effort via specific criteria in a compensation plan may enhance a culture of flexibility. These novel criteria have been effective in one pilot department. PMID:28725757

History effects in visual search for monsters: search times, choice biases, and liking.

PubMed

Chetverikov, Andrey; Kristjansson, Árni

2015-02-01

Repeating targets and distractors on consecutive visual search trials facilitates search performance, whereas switching targets and distractors harms search. In addition, search repetition leads to biases in free choice tasks, in that previously attended targets are more likely to be chosen than distractors. Another line of research has shown that attended items receive high liking ratings, whereas ignored distractors are rated negatively. Potential relations between the three effects are unclear, however. Here we simultaneously measured repetition benefits and switching costs for search times, choice biases, and liking ratings in color singleton visual search for "monster" shapes. We showed that if expectations from search repetition are violated, targets are liked to be less attended than otherwise. Choice biases were, on the other hand, affected by distractor repetition, but not by target/distractor switches. Target repetition speeded search times but had little influence on choice or liking. Our findings suggest that choice biases reflect distractor inhibition, and liking reflects the conflict associated with attending to previously inhibited stimuli, while speeded search follows both target and distractor repetition. Our results support the newly proposed affective-feedback-of-hypothesis-testing account of cognition, and additionally, shed new light on the priming of visual search.

Effects of detector-source distance and detector bias voltage variations on time resolution of general purpose plastic scintillation detectors.

PubMed

Ermis, E E; Celiktas, C

2012-12-01

Effects of source-detector distance and the detector bias voltage variations on time resolution of a general purpose plastic scintillation detector such as BC400 were investigated. (133)Ba and (207)Bi calibration sources with and without collimator were used in the present work. Optimum source-detector distance and bias voltage values were determined for the best time resolution by using leading edge timing method. Effect of the collimator usage on time resolution was also investigated. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transit time spreads in biased paracentric hemispherical deflection analyzers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sise, Omer; Zouros, Theo J. M.

2016-02-01

The biased paracentric hemispherical deflection analyzers (HDAs) are an alternative to conventional (centric) HDAs maintaining greater dispersion, lower angular aberrations, and hence better energy resolution without the use of any additional fringing field correctors. In the present work, the transit time spread of the biased paracentric HDA is computed over a wide range of analyzer parameters. The combination of high energy resolution with good time resolution and simplicity of design makes the biased paracentric analyzers very promising for both coincidence and singles spectroscopy applications.

Lead-Time Bias and Interhospital Transfer after Injury: Trauma Center Admission Vital Signs Underpredict Mortality in Transferred Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Holena, Daniel N; Wiebe, Douglas J; Carr, Brendan G; Hsu, Jesse Y; Sperry, Jason L; Peitzman, Andrew B; Reilly, Patrick M

2017-03-01

Admission physiology predicts mortality after injury, but may be improved by resuscitation before transfer. This phenomenon, which has been termed lead-time bias, may lead to underprediction of mortality in transferred patients and inaccurate benchmarking in centers receiving large numbers of transfer patients. We sought to determine the impact of using vital signs on arrival at the referring center vs on arrival at the trauma center in mortality prediction models for transferred trauma patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study using a state-wide trauma registry including all patients age 16 years or older, with Abbreviated Injury Scale scores ≥ 3, admitted to level I and II trauma centers in Pennsylvania, from 2011 to 2014. The primary outcomes measure was the risk-adjusted association between mortality and interhospital transfer (IHT) when adjusting for physiology (as measured by Revised Trauma Score [RTS]) using the referring hospital arrival vital signs (model 1) compared with trauma center arrival vital signs (model 2). After adjusting for patient and injury factors, IHT was associated with reduced mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.85; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.93) using the RTS from trauma center admission, but with increased mortality (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.27) using RTS from the referring hospital. The greater the number of transfer patients seen by a center, the greater the difference in center-level mortality predicted by the 2 models (β -0.044; 95% CI -0.044 to -0.0043; p ≤ 0.001). Trauma center vital signs underestimate mortality in transfer patients and may lead to incorrect estimates of expected mortality. Where possible, benchmarking efforts should use referring hospital vital signs to risk-adjust IHT patients. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-course of attention biases in social phobia.

PubMed

Schofield, Casey A; Inhoff, Albrecht W; Coles, Meredith E

2013-10-01

Theoretical models of social phobia implicate preferential attention to social threat in the maintenance of anxiety symptoms, though there has been limited work characterizing the nature of these biases over time. The current study utilized eye-movement data to examine the time-course of visual attention over 1500ms trials of a probe detection task. Nineteen participants with a primary diagnosis of social phobia based on DSM-IV criteria and 20 non-clinical controls completed this task with angry, fearful, and happy face trials. Overt visual attention to the emotional and neutral faces was measured in 50ms segments across the trial. Over time, participants with social phobia attend less to emotional faces and specifically less to happy faces compared to controls. Further, attention to emotional relative to neutral expressions did not vary notably by emotion for participants with social phobia, but control participants showed a pattern after 1000ms in which over time they preferentially attended to happy expressions and avoided negative expressions. Findings highlight the importance of considering attention biases to positive stimuli as well as the pattern of attention between groups. These results suggest that attention "bias" in social phobia may be driven by a relative lack of the biases seen in non-anxious participants. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimism bias leads to inconclusive results - an empirical study

PubMed Central

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Kumar, Ambuj; Magazin, Anja; Schroen, Anneke T.; Soares, Heloisa; Hozo, Iztok; Clarke, Mike; Sargent, Daniel; Schell, Michael J.

2010-01-01

Objective Optimism bias refers to unwarranted belief in the efficacy of new therapies. We assessed the impact of optimism bias on a proportion of trials that did not answer their research question successfully, and explored whether poor accrual or optimism bias is responsible for inconclusive results. Study Design Systematic review Setting Retrospective analysis of a consecutive series phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) performed under the aegis of National Cancer Institute Cooperative groups. Results 359 trials (374 comparisons) enrolling 150,232 patients were analyzed. 70% (262/374) of the trials generated conclusive results according to the statistical criteria. Investigators made definitive statements related to the treatment preference in 73% (273/374) of studies. Investigators’ judgments and statistical inferences were concordant in 75% (279/374) of trials. Investigators consistently overestimated their expected treatment effects, but to a significantly larger extent for inconclusive trials. The median ratio of expected over observed hazard ratio or odds ratio was 1.34 (range 0.19 – 15.40) in conclusive trials compared to 1.86 (range 1.09 – 12.00) in inconclusive studies (p<0.0001). Only 17% of the trials had treatment effects that matched original researchers’ expectations. Conclusion Formal statistical inference is sufficient to answer the research question in 75% of RCTs. The answers to the other 25% depend mostly on subjective judgments, which at times are in conflict with statistical inference. Optimism bias significantly contributes to inconclusive results. PMID:21163620

Optimism bias leads to inconclusive results-an empirical study.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Kumar, Ambuj; Magazin, Anja; Schroen, Anneke T; Soares, Heloisa; Hozo, Iztok; Clarke, Mike; Sargent, Daniel; Schell, Michael J

2011-06-01

Optimism bias refers to unwarranted belief in the efficacy of new therapies. We assessed the impact of optimism bias on a proportion of trials that did not answer their research question successfully and explored whether poor accrual or optimism bias is responsible for inconclusive results. Systematic review. Retrospective analysis of a consecutive-series phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) performed under the aegis of National Cancer Institute Cooperative groups. Three hundred fifty-nine trials (374 comparisons) enrolling 150,232 patients were analyzed. Seventy percent (262 of 374) of the trials generated conclusive results according to the statistical criteria. Investigators made definitive statements related to the treatment preference in 73% (273 of 374) of studies. Investigators' judgments and statistical inferences were concordant in 75% (279 of 374) of trials. Investigators consistently overestimated their expected treatment effects but to a significantly larger extent for inconclusive trials. The median ratio of expected and observed hazard ratio or odds ratio was 1.34 (range: 0.19-15.40) in conclusive trials compared with 1.86 (range: 1.09-12.00) in inconclusive studies (P<0.0001). Only 17% of the trials had treatment effects that matched original researchers' expectations. Formal statistical inference is sufficient to answer the research question in 75% of RCTs. The answers to the other 25% depend mostly on subjective judgments, which at times are in conflict with statistical inference. Optimism bias significantly contributes to inconclusive results. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suspected survivor bias in case-control studies: stratify on survival time and use a negative control.

PubMed

van Rein, Nienke; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Rosendaal, Frits R; Reitsma, Pieter H; Lijfering, Willem M

2014-02-01

Selection bias in case-control studies occurs when control selection is inappropriate. However, selection bias due to improper case sampling is less well recognized. We describe how to recognize survivor bias (i.e., selection on exposed cases) and illustrate this with an example study. A case-control study was used to analyze the effect of statins on major bleedings during treatment with vitamin K antagonists. A total of 110 patients who experienced such bleedings were included 18-1,018 days after the bleeding complication and matched to 220 controls. A protective association of major bleeding for exposure to statins (odds ratio [OR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-1.08) was found, which did not become stronger after adjustment for confounding factors. These observations lead us to suspect survivor bias. To identify this bias, results were stratified on time between bleeding event and inclusion, and repeated for a negative control (an exposure not related to survival): blood group non-O. The ORs for exposure to statins increased gradually to 1.37 with shorter time between outcome and inclusion, whereas ORs for the negative control remained constant, confirming our hypothesis. We recommend the presented method to check for overoptimistic results, that is, survivor bias in case-control studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immortal time bias: a frequently unrecognized threat to validity in the evaluation of postoperative radiotherapy.

PubMed

Park, Henry S; Gross, Cary P; Makarov, Danil V; Yu, James B

2012-08-01

To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORT vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immortal Time Bias: A Frequently Unrecognized Threat to Validity in the Evaluation of Postoperative Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Henry S.; Gross, Cary P.; Makarov, Danil V.

2012-08-01

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Methods and Materials: First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORTmore » vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Results: Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Conclusions: Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias.« less

Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical postprocessing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically postprocess ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead times ranging from 1 to 240 h. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the postprocessed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

An unjustified benefit: immortal time bias in the analysis of time-dependent events.

PubMed

Gleiss, Andreas; Oberbauer, Rainer; Heinze, Georg

2018-02-01

Immortal time bias is a problem arising from methodologically wrong analyses of time-dependent events in survival analyses. We illustrate the problem by analysis of a kidney transplantation study. Following patients from transplantation to death, groups defined by the occurrence or nonoccurrence of graft failure during follow-up seemingly had equal overall mortality. Such naive analysis assumes that patients were assigned to the two groups at time of transplantation, which actually are a consequence of occurrence of a time-dependent event later during follow-up. We introduce landmark analysis as the method of choice to avoid immortal time bias. Landmark analysis splits the follow-up time at a common, prespecified time point, the so-called landmark. Groups are then defined by time-dependent events having occurred before the landmark, and outcome events are only considered if occurring after the landmark. Landmark analysis can be easily implemented with common statistical software. In our kidney transplantation example, landmark analyses with landmarks set at 30 and 60 months clearly identified graft failure as a risk factor for overall mortality. We give further typical examples from transplantation research and discuss strengths and limitations of landmark analysis and other methods to address immortal time bias such as Cox regression with time-dependent covariables. © 2017 Steunstichting ESOT.

Understanding and Avoiding Immortal-Time Bias in Gastrointestinal Observational Research.

PubMed

Targownik, Laura E; Suissa, Samy

2015-12-01

Pharmacoepidemiologic analyses, in which observational data is interrogated to evaluate relationships between patterns of drug use and both beneficial and adverse outcomes, are being increasingly used in the study of inflammatory bowel disease. However, the results of many of these analyses may be corrupted by the presence of immortal person-time bias, an analytic error which can result in an overestimation of the benefits of medical therapy. In this report, we will describe immortal person-time bias, explain the mechanism through which it confers a false benefit, and guide the reader in how to identify this source of bias in the medical literature.

Biases in Time-Averaged Field and Paleosecular Variation Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C. L.; Constable, C.

2009-12-01

Challenges to constructing time-averaged field (TAF) and paleosecular variation (PSV) models of Earth’s magnetic field over million year time scales are the uneven geographical and temporal distribution of paleomagnetic data and the absence of full vector records of the magnetic field variability at any given site. Recent improvements in paleomagnetic data sets now allow regional assessment of the biases introduced by irregular temporal sampling and the absence of full vector information. We investigate these effects over the past few Myr for regions with large paleomagnetic data sets, where the TAF and/or PSV have been of previous interest (e.g., significant departures of the TAF from the field predicted by a geocentric axial dipole). We calculate the effects of excluding paleointensity data from TAF calculations, and find these to be small. For example, at Hawaii, we find that for the past 50 ka, estimates of the TAF direction are minimally affected if only paleodirectional data versus the full paleofield vector are used. We use resampling techniques to investigate biases incurred by the uneven temporal distribution. Key to the latter issue is temporal information on a site-by-site basis. At Hawaii, resampling of the paleodirectional data onto a uniform temporal distribution, assuming no error in the site ages, reduces the magnitude of the inclination anomaly for the Brunhes, Gauss and Matuyama epochs. However inclusion of age errors in the sampling procedure leads to TAF estimates that are close to those reported for the original data sets. We discuss the implications of our results for global field models.

Intuitive Choices Lead to Intensified Positive Emotions: An Overlooked Reason for "Intuition Bias"?

PubMed

Kirkebøen, Geir; Nordbye, Gro H H

2017-01-01

People have, for many well-documented reasons, a tendency to overemphasize their intuitions and to follow them, even when they should not. This "intuition bias" leads to several kinds of specific intuitive biases in judgments and decision making. Previous studies have shown that characteristics of the decision process have a tendency to "leak" into the experience of the choice outcome. We explore whether intuitive choices influence the experience of the choice outcomes differently from "non-intuitive," analytic choices. Since intuition is feeling based, we examine in particular if intuitive choices have stronger affective consequences than non-intuitive ones. Participants in two scenario studies ( N = 90; N = 126) rated the feelings of decision makers who experienced a conflict between two options, one intuitively appealing and another that appeared preferable on analytic grounds. Choosing the intuitive alternative was anticipated to lead to somewhat more regret after negative outcomes and, in particular, much more satisfaction with positive outcomes. In two autobiographical studies, one with psychology students ( N = 88) and the other with experienced engineers ( N = 99), participants were asked to provide examples of choice conflicts between an intuitive and a non-intuitive option from their own private or professional lives. Both groups showed a tendency to report stronger emotions, in particular positive, after intuitive choices. One well-established explanation for intuition bias focuses on the nature of people's anticipated negative counterfactual thoughts if their decisions were to turn out badly. The present data indicate that intuitive choices intensify positive emotions, anticipated and real, after successful outcomes much more than negative emotions after failures. Positive outcomes are also more commonly expected than negative ones, when we make choices. We argue that markedly amplified emotions, mediated by stronger personal involvement, in the

[Immortal time bias in pharmacoepidemiological studies: definition, solutions and examples].

PubMed

Faillie, Jean-Luc; Suissa, Samy

2015-01-01

Among the observational studies of drug effects in chronic diseases, many of them have found effects that were exaggerated or wrong. Among bias responsible for these errors, the immortal time bias, concerning the definition of exposure and exposure periods, is relevantly important as it usually tends to wrongly attribute a significant benefit to the study drug (or exaggerate a real benefit). In this article, we define the mechanism of immortal time bias, we present possible solutions and illustrate its consequences through examples of pharmacoepidemiological studies of drug effects. © 2014 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

Racial-Ethnic Biases, Time Pressure, and Medical Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stepanikova, Irena

2012-01-01

This study examined two types of potential sources of racial-ethnic disparities in medical care: implicit biases and time pressure. Eighty-one family physicians and general internists responded to a case vignette describing a patient with chest pain. Time pressure was manipulated experimentally. Under high time pressure, but not under low time…

Stimulus- and state-dependence of systematic bias in spatial attention: additive effects of stimulus-size and time-on-task.

PubMed

Benwell, Christopher S Y; Harvey, Monika; Gardner, Stephanie; Thut, Gregor

2013-03-01

Systematic biases in spatial attention are a common finding. In the general population, a systematic leftward bias is typically observed (pseudoneglect), possibly as a consequence of right hemisphere dominance for visuospatial attention. However, this leftward bias can cross-over to a systematic rightward bias with changes in stimulus and state factors (such as line length and arousal). The processes governing these changes are still unknown. Here we tested models of spatial attention as to their ability to account for these effects. To this end, we experimentally manipulated both stimulus and state factors, while healthy participants performed a computerized version of a landmark task. State was manipulated by time-on-task (>1 h) leading to increased fatigue and a reliable left- to rightward shift in spatial bias. Stimulus was manipulated by presenting either long or short lines which was associated with a shift of subjective midpoint from a reliable leftward bias for long to a more rightward bias for short lines. Importantly, we found time-on-task and line length effects to be additive suggesting a common denominator for line bisection across all conditions, which is in disagreement with models that assume that bisection decisions in long and short lines are governed by distinct processes (Magnitude estimation vs Global/local distinction). Our findings emphasize the dynamic rather than static nature of spatial biases in midline judgement. They are best captured by theories of spatial attention positing that spatial bias is flexibly modulated, and subject to inter-hemispheric balance which can change over time or conditions to accommodate task demands or reflect fatigue. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Dealing With Immortal Time Bias in Drug Effectiveness Studies

PubMed Central

Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Gustafson, Paul; Petkau, John; Tremlett, Helen

2016-01-01

In time-to-event analyses of observational studies of drug effectiveness, incorrect handling of the period between cohort entry and first treatment exposure during follow-up may result in immortal time bias. This bias can be eliminated by acknowledging a change in treatment exposure status with time-dependent analyses, such as fitting a time-dependent Cox model. The prescription time-distribution matching (PTDM) method has been proposed as a simpler approach for controlling immortal time bias. Using simulation studies and theoretical quantification of bias, we compared the performance of the PTDM approach with that of the time-dependent Cox model in the presence of immortal time. Both assessments revealed that the PTDM approach did not adequately address immortal time bias. Based on our simulation results, another recently proposed observational data analysis technique, the sequential Cox approach, was found to be more useful than the PTDM approach (Cox: bias = −0.002, mean squared error = 0.025; PTDM: bias = −1.411, mean squared error = 2.011). We applied these approaches to investigate the association of β-interferon treatment with delaying disability progression in a multiple sclerosis cohort in British Columbia, Canada (Long-Term Benefits and Adverse Effects of Beta-Interferon for Multiple Sclerosis (BeAMS) Study, 1995–2008). PMID:27455963

Do Health Claims and Front-of-Pack Labels Lead to a Positivity Bias in Unhealthy Foods?

PubMed Central

Talati, Zenobia; Pettigrew, Simone; Dixon, Helen; Neal, Bruce; Ball, Kylie; Hughes, Clare

2016-01-01

Health claims and front-of-pack labels (FoPLs) may lead consumers to hold more positive attitudes and show a greater willingness to buy food products, regardless of their actual healthiness. A potential negative consequence of this positivity bias is the increased consumption of unhealthy foods. This study investigated whether a positivity bias would occur in unhealthy variations of four products (cookies, corn flakes, pizzas and yoghurts) that featured different health claim conditions (no claim, nutrient claim, general level health claim, and higher level health claim) and FoPL conditions (no FoPL, the Daily Intake Guide (DIG), Multiple Traffic Lights (MTL), and the Health Star Rating (HSR)). Positivity bias was assessed via measures of perceived healthiness, global evaluations (incorporating taste, quality, convenience, etc.) and willingness to buy. On the whole, health claims did not produce a positivity bias, while FoPLs did, with the DIG being the most likely to elicit this bias. The HSR most frequently led to lower ratings of unhealthy foods than the DIG and MTL, suggesting that this FoPL has the lowest risk of creating an inaccurate positivity bias in unhealthy foods. PMID:27918426

Immortal time bias in observational studies of drug effects in pregnancy.

PubMed

Matok, Ilan; Azoulay, Laurent; Yin, Hui; Suissa, Samy

2014-09-01

The use of decongestants during the second or third trimesters of pregnancy has been associated with a decreased risk of preterm delivery in two observational studies. This effect may have been subject to immortal time bias, a bias arising from the improper classification of exposure during follow-up. We illustrate this bias by repeating the studies using a different data source. The United Kingdom Hospital Episodes Statistics and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink databases were linked to identify all live singleton pregnancies among women aged 15 to 45 years between 1997 and 2012. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals of preterm delivery (before 37 weeks of gestation) by considering the use of decongestants during the third trimester as a time-fixed (biased analysis which misclassifies unexposed person-time as exposed person-time) and time-varying exposure (unbiased analysis with proper classification of unexposed person-time). All models were adjusted for maternal age, smoking status, maternal diabetes, maternal hypertension, preeclampsia, and parity. Of the 195,582 singleton deliveries, 10,248 (5.2%) were born preterm. In the time-fixed analysis, the HR of preterm delivery for the use of decongestants was below the null and suggestive of a 46% decreased risk (adjusted HR = 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.20). In contrast, the HR was closer to null (adjusted HR = 0.93 95% confidence interval, 0.42-2.06) when the use of decongestants was treated as a time-varying variable. Studies of drug safety in pregnancy should use the appropriate statistical techniques to avoid immortal time bias, particularly when the exposure occurs at later stages of pregnancy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Guilt leads to enhanced facing-the-viewer bias

PubMed Central

Shen, Mowei; Zhu, Chengfeng; Liao, Huayu; Zhang, Haihang; Zhou, Jifan

2018-01-01

As an important moral emotion, guilt plays a critical role in social interaction. It has been found that people tended to exhibit prosocial behavior under circumstances of guilt. However, all extant studies have predominantly focused on the influence of guilt on macro-level behavior. So far, no study has investigated whether guilt affects people’s micro-level perception. The current study closes this gap by examining whether guilt affects one’s inclination to perceive approaching motion. We achieved this aim by probing a facing-the-viewer bias (FTV bias). Specifically, when an ambiguous walking biological motion display is presented to participants via the point-light display technique, participants tend to perceive a walking agent approaching them. We hypothesized that guilt modulated FTV bias. To test this hypothesis, we adopted a two-person situation induction task to induce guilt, whereby participants were induced to feel that because of their poor task performance, their partner did not receive a satisfactory payment. We found that when participants were told that the perceived biological motion was motion-captured from their partner, the FTV bias was significantly increased for guilty participants relative to neutral participants. However, when participants were informed that the perceived biological motion was from a third neutral agent, the FTV bias was not modulated by guilt. These results suggest that guilt influences one’s inclination to perceive approaching motion, but this effect is constrained to the person towards whom guilt is directed. PMID:29649338

Bias correction by use of errors-in-variables regression models in studies with K-X-ray fluorescence bone lead measurements.

PubMed

Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor; Téllez-Rojo, Martha M; Angeles, Gustavo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Hu, Howard

2011-01-01

In-vivo measurement of bone lead by means of K-X-ray fluorescence (KXRF) is the preferred biological marker of chronic exposure to lead. Unfortunately, considerable measurement error associated with KXRF estimations can introduce bias in estimates of the effect of bone lead when this variable is included as the exposure in a regression model. Estimates of uncertainty reported by the KXRF instrument reflect the variance of the measurement error and, although they can be used to correct the measurement error bias, they are seldom used in epidemiological statistical analyzes. Errors-in-variables regression (EIV) allows for correction of bias caused by measurement error in predictor variables, based on the knowledge of the reliability of such variables. The authors propose a way to obtain reliability coefficients for bone lead measurements from uncertainty data reported by the KXRF instrument and compare, by the use of Monte Carlo simulations, results obtained using EIV regression models vs. those obtained by the standard procedures. Results of the simulations show that Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression models provide severely biased estimates of effect, and that EIV provides nearly unbiased estimates. Although EIV effect estimates are more imprecise, their mean squared error is much smaller than that of OLS estimates. In conclusion, EIV is a better alternative than OLS to estimate the effect of bone lead when measured by KXRF. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Timing group delay and differential code bias corrections for BeiDou positioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Fei; Zhang, Xiaohong; Wang, Jinling

2015-05-01

This article first clearly figures out the relationship between parameters of timing group delay (TGD) and differential code bias (DCB) for BDS, and demonstrates the equivalence of TGD and DCB correction models combining theory with practice. The TGD/DCB correction models have been extended to various occasions for BDS positioning, and such models have been evaluated by real triple-frequency datasets. To test the effectiveness of broadcast TGDs in the navigation message and DCBs provided by the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX), both standard point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) tests are carried out for BDS signals with different schemes. Furthermore, the influence of differential code biases on BDS positioning estimates such as coordinates, receiver clock biases, tropospheric delays and carrier phase ambiguities is investigated comprehensively. Comparative analysis show that the unmodeled differential code biases degrade the performance of BDS SPP by a factor of two or more, whereas the estimates of PPP are subject to varying degrees of influences. For SPP, the accuracy of dual-frequency combinations is slightly worse than that of single-frequency, and they are much more sensitive to the differential code biases, particularly for the B2B3 combination. For PPP, the uncorrected differential code biases are mostly absorbed into the receiver clock bias and carrier phase ambiguities and thus resulting in a much longer convergence time. Even though the influence of the differential code biases could be mitigated over time and comparable positioning accuracy could be achieved after convergence, it is suggested to properly handle with the differential code biases since it is vital for PPP convergence and integer ambiguity resolution.

Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Dealing With Immortal Time Bias in Drug Effectiveness Studies.

PubMed

Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Gustafson, Paul; Petkau, John; Tremlett, Helen

2016-08-15

In time-to-event analyses of observational studies of drug effectiveness, incorrect handling of the period between cohort entry and first treatment exposure during follow-up may result in immortal time bias. This bias can be eliminated by acknowledging a change in treatment exposure status with time-dependent analyses, such as fitting a time-dependent Cox model. The prescription time-distribution matching (PTDM) method has been proposed as a simpler approach for controlling immortal time bias. Using simulation studies and theoretical quantification of bias, we compared the performance of the PTDM approach with that of the time-dependent Cox model in the presence of immortal time. Both assessments revealed that the PTDM approach did not adequately address immortal time bias. Based on our simulation results, another recently proposed observational data analysis technique, the sequential Cox approach, was found to be more useful than the PTDM approach (Cox: bias = -0.002, mean squared error = 0.025; PTDM: bias = -1.411, mean squared error = 2.011). We applied these approaches to investigate the association of β-interferon treatment with delaying disability progression in a multiple sclerosis cohort in British Columbia, Canada (Long-Term Benefits and Adverse Effects of Beta-Interferon for Multiple Sclerosis (BeAMS) Study, 1995-2008). © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Time Course of Attentional Bias in Anxiety: Emotion and Gender Specificity

PubMed Central

Sass, Sarah M.; Heller, Wendy; Stewart, Jennifer L.; Silton, Rebecca Levin; Edgar, J. Christopher; Fisher, Joscelyn E.; Miller, Gregory A.

2011-01-01

Anxiety is characterized by cognitive biases, including attentional bias to emotional (especially threatening) stimuli. Accounts differ on the time course of attention to threat, but the literature generally confounds emotional valence and arousal and overlooks gender effects, both addressed in the present study. Nonpatients high in self-reported anxious apprehension, anxious arousal, or neither completed an emotion-word Stroop task during ERP recording. Hypotheses differentiated time course of preferential attention to emotional stimuli. Individuals high in anxious apprehension and anxious arousal showed distinct early ERP evidence of preferential processing of emotionally arousing stimuli along with some evidence for gender differences in processing. Healthy controls showed gender differences at both early and later processing stages. The conjunction of valence, arousal, and gender is critical in the time course of attentional bias. PMID:19863758

Timing discriminator using leading-edge extrapolation

DOEpatents

Gottschalk, Bernard

1983-01-01

A discriminator circuit to recover timing information from slow-rising pulses by means of an output trailing edge, a fixed time after the starting corner of the input pulse, which is nearly independent of risetime and threshold setting. This apparatus comprises means for comparing pulses with a threshold voltage; a capacitor to be charged at a certain rate when the input signal is one-third threshold voltage, and at a lower rate when the input signal is two-thirds threshold voltage; current-generating means for charging the capacitor; means for comparing voltage capacitor with a bias voltage; a flip-flop to be set when the input pulse reaches threshold voltage and reset when capacitor voltage reaches the bias voltage; and a clamping means for discharging the capacitor when the input signal returns below one-third threshold voltage.

Timing discriminator using leading-edge extrapolation

DOEpatents

Gottschalk, B.

1981-07-30

A discriminator circuit to recover timing information from slow-rising pulses by means of an output trailing edge, a fixed time after the starting corner of the input pulse, which is nearly independent of risetime and threshold setting is described. This apparatus comprises means for comparing pulses with a threshold voltage; a capacitor to be charged at a certain rate when the input signal is one-third threshold voltage, and at a lower rate when the input signal is two-thirds threshold voltage; current-generating means for charging the capacitor; means for comparing voltage capacitor with a bias voltage; a flip-flop to be set when the input pulse reaches threshold voltage and reset when capacitor voltage reaches the bias voltage; and a clamping means for discharging the capacitor when the input signal returns below one-third threshold voltage.

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, Steve

2012-01-01

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes

PubMed Central

Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P.; Fischer, Woodward W.; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2016-01-01

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time. PMID:27713925

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes.

PubMed

Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P; Fischer, Woodward W; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2016-10-01

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time.

Alleviating bias leads to accurate and personalized recommendation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Tian; Wang, Tian-Tian; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhong, Li-Xin; Chen, Guang

2013-11-01

Recommendation bias towards objects has been found to have an impact on personalized recommendation, since objects present heterogeneous characteristics in some network-based recommender systems. In this article, based on a biased heat conduction recommendation algorithm (BHC) which considers the heterogeneity of the target objects, we propose a heterogeneous heat conduction algorithm (HHC), by further taking the heterogeneity of the source objects into account. Tested on three real datasets, the Netflix, RYM and MovieLens, the HHC algorithm is found to present better recommendation in both the accuracy and diversity than two benchmark algorithms, i.e., the original BHC and a hybrid algorithm of heat conduction and mass diffusion (HHM), while not requiring any other accessorial information or parameter. Moreover, the HHC algorithm also elevates the recommendation accuracy on cold objects, referring to the so-called cold-start problem. Eigenvalue analyses show that, the HHC algorithm effectively alleviates the recommendation bias towards objects with different level of popularity, which is beneficial to solving the accuracy-diversity dilemma.

Remembering the best and worst of times: memories for extreme outcomes bias risky decisions.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R; Ludvig, Elliot A; Spetch, Marcia L

2014-06-01

When making decisions on the basis of past experiences, people must rely on their memories. Human memory has many well-known biases, including the tendency to better remember highly salient events. We propose an extreme-outcome rule, whereby this memory bias leads people to overweight the largest gains and largest losses, leading to more risk seeking for relative gains than for relative losses. To test this rule, in two experiments, people repeatedly chose between fixed and risky options, where the risky option led equiprobably to more or less than did the fixed option. As was predicted, people were more risk seeking for relative gains than for relative losses. In subsequent memory tests, people tended to recall the extreme outcome first and also judged the extreme outcome as having occurred more frequently. Across individuals, risk preferences in the risky-choice task correlated with these memory biases. This extreme-outcome rule presents a novel mechanism through which memory influences decision making.

A Bias and Variance Analysis for Multistep-Ahead Time Series Forecasting.

PubMed

Ben Taieb, Souhaib; Atiya, Amir F

2016-01-01

Multistep-ahead forecasts can either be produced recursively by iterating a one-step-ahead time series model or directly by estimating a separate model for each forecast horizon. In addition, there are other strategies; some of them combine aspects of both aforementioned concepts. In this paper, we present a comprehensive investigation into the bias and variance behavior of multistep-ahead forecasting strategies. We provide a detailed review of the different multistep-ahead strategies. Subsequently, we perform a theoretical study that derives the bias and variance for a number of forecasting strategies. Finally, we conduct a Monte Carlo experimental study that compares and evaluates the bias and variance performance of the different strategies. From the theoretical and the simulation studies, we analyze the effect of different factors, such as the forecast horizon and the time series length, on the bias and variance components, and on the different multistep-ahead strategies. Several lessons are learned, and recommendations are given concerning the advantages, disadvantages, and best conditions of use of each strategy.

Bias Corrections for Regional Estimates of the Time-averaged Geomagnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constable, C.; Johnson, C. L.

2009-05-01

We assess two sources of bias in the time-averaged geomagnetic field (TAF) and paleosecular variation (PSV): inadequate temporal sampling, and the use of unit vectors in deriving temporal averages of the regional geomagnetic field. For the first temporal sampling question we use statistical resampling of existing data sets to minimize and correct for bias arising from uneven temporal sampling in studies of the time- averaged geomagnetic field (TAF) and its paleosecular variation (PSV). The techniques are illustrated using data derived from Hawaiian lava flows for 0-5~Ma: directional observations are an updated version of a previously published compilation of paleomagnetic directional data centered on ± 20° latitude by Lawrence et al./(2006); intensity data are drawn from Tauxe & Yamazaki, (2007). We conclude that poor temporal sampling can produce biased estimates of TAF and PSV, and resampling to appropriate statistical distribution of ages reduces this bias. We suggest that similar resampling should be attempted as a bias correction for all regional paleomagnetic data to be used in TAF and PSV modeling. The second potential source of bias is the use of directional data in place of full vector data to estimate the average field. This is investigated for the full vector subset of the updated Hawaiian data set. Lawrence, K.P., C.G. Constable, and C.L. Johnson, 2006, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 7, Q07007, DOI 10.1029/2005GC001181. Tauxe, L., & Yamazkai, 2007, Treatise on Geophysics,5, Geomagnetism, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Chapter 13,p509

Neural correlates of belief-bias reasoning under time pressure: a near-infrared spectroscopy study.

PubMed

Tsujii, Takeo; Watanabe, Shigeru

2010-04-15

The dual-process theory of reasoning explained the belief-bias effect, the tendency for human reasoning to be erroneously biased when logical conclusions are incongruent with belief about the world, by proposing a belief-based fast heuristic system and a logic-based slow analytic system. Although the claims were supported by behavioral findings that the belief-bias effect was enhanced when subjects were not given sufficient time for reasoning, the neural correlates were still unknown. The present study therefore examined the relationship between the time-pressure effect and activity in the inferior frontal cortex (IFC) during belief-bias reasoning using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Forty-eight subjects performed congruent and incongruent reasoning tasks, involving long-span (20 s) and short-span trials (10 s). Behavioral analysis found that only incongruent reasoning performance was impaired by the time-pressure of short-span trials. NIRS analysis found that the time-pressure decreased right IFC activity during incongruent trials. Correlation analysis showed that subjects with enhanced right IFC activity could perform better in incongruent trials, while subjects for whom the right IFC activity was impaired by the time-pressure could not maintain better reasoning performance. These findings suggest that the right IFC may be responsible for the time-pressure effect in conflicting reasoning processes. When the right IFC activity was impaired in the short-span trials in which subjects were not given sufficient time for reasoning, the subjects may rely on the fast heuristic system, which result in belief-bias responses. We therefore offer the first demonstration of neural correlates of time-pressure effect on the IFC activity in belief-bias reasoning. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Compensation Criteria to Minimize Face-Time Bias and Support Faculty Career Flexibility: An Approach to Enhance Career Satisfaction in Academic Pathology.

PubMed

Howell, Lydia Pleotis; Elsbach, Kimberly D; Villablanca, Amparo C

2016-01-01

Work-life balance is important to recruitment and retention of the younger generation of medical faculty, but medical school flexibility policies have not been fully effective. We have reported that our school's policies are underutilized due to faculty concerns about looking uncommitted to career or team. Since policies include leaves and accommodations that reduce physical presence, faculty may fear "face-time bias," which negatively affects evaluation of those not "seen" at work. Face-time bias is reported to negatively affect salary and career progress. We explored face-time bias on a leadership level and described development of compensation criteria intended to mitigate face-time bias, raise visibility, and reward commitment and contribution to team/group goals. Leaders from 6 partner departments participated in standardized interviews and group meetings. Ten compensation plans were analyzed, and published literature was reviewed. Leaders did not perceive face-time issues but saw team pressure and perception of availability as performance motivators. Compensation plans were multifactor productivity based with many quantifiable criteria; few addressed team contributions. Using these findings, novel compensation criteria were developed based on a published model to mitigate face-time bias associated with team perceptions. Criteria for organizational citizenship to raise visibility and reward group outcomes were included. We conclude that team pressure and perception of availability have the potential to lead to bias and may contribute to underuse of flexibility policies. Recognizing organizational citizenship and cooperative effort via specific criteria in a compensation plan may enhance a culture of flexibility. These novel criteria have been effective in one pilot department.

Distortion in time perception as a result of concern about appearing biased

PubMed Central

Moskowitz, Gordon B.; Olcaysoy Okten, Irmak; Gooch, Cynthia M.

2017-01-01

Two experiments illustrate that the perception of a given time duration slows when white participants observe faces of black men, but only if participants are concerned with appearing biased. In Experiment 1 the concern with the appearance of bias is measured as a chronic state using the external motivation to respond without prejudice scale (Plant & Devine, 1998). In Experiment 2 it is manipulated by varying the race of the experimenter (black versus white). Time perception is assessed via a temporal discrimination task commonly used in the literature. Models of time perception identify arousal as a factor that causes perceived time to slow, and we speculate that arousal arising in intergroup interactions can alter time perception. PMID:28792515

Selection bias in rheumatic disease research.

PubMed

Choi, Hyon K; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa; Niu, Jingbo; Danaei, Goodarz; Zhang, Yuqing

2014-07-01

The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias--a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic--in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the 'risk factor paradox'--a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research.

CD-SEM real time bias correction using reference metrology based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukraintsev, V.; Banke, W.; Zagorodnev, G.; Archie, C.; Rana, N.; Pavlovsky, V.; Smirnov, V.; Briginas, I.; Katnani, A.; Vaid, A.

2018-03-01

Accuracy of patterning impacts yield, IC performance and technology time to market. Accuracy of patterning relies on optical proximity correction (OPC) models built using CD-SEM inputs and intra die critical dimension (CD) control based on CD-SEM. Sub-nanometer measurement uncertainty (MU) of CD-SEM is required for current technologies. Reported design and process related bias variation of CD-SEM is in the range of several nanometers. Reference metrology and numerical modeling are used to correct SEM. Both methods are slow to be used for real time bias correction. We report on real time CD-SEM bias correction using empirical models based on reference metrology (RM) data. Significant amount of currently untapped information (sidewall angle, corner rounding, etc.) is obtainable from SEM waveforms. Using additional RM information provided for specific technology (design rules, materials, processes) CD extraction algorithms can be pre-built and then used in real time for accurate CD extraction from regular CD-SEM images. The art and challenge of SEM modeling is in finding robust correlation between SEM waveform features and bias of CD-SEM as well as in minimizing RM inputs needed to create accurate (within the design and process space) model. The new approach was applied to improve CD-SEM accuracy of 45 nm GATE and 32 nm MET1 OPC 1D models. In both cases MU of the state of the art CD-SEM has been improved by 3x and reduced to a nanometer level. Similar approach can be applied to 2D (end of line, contours, etc.) and 3D (sidewall angle, corner rounding, etc.) cases.

Real-time image annotation by manifold-based biased Fisher discriminant analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Rongrong; Yao, Hongxun; Wang, Jicheng; Sun, Xiaoshuai; Liu, Xianming

2008-01-01

Automatic Linguistic Annotation is a promising solution to bridge the semantic gap in content-based image retrieval. However, two crucial issues are not well addressed in state-of-art annotation algorithms: 1. The Small Sample Size (3S) problem in keyword classifier/model learning; 2. Most of annotation algorithms can not extend to real-time online usage due to their low computational efficiencies. This paper presents a novel Manifold-based Biased Fisher Discriminant Analysis (MBFDA) algorithm to address these two issues by transductive semantic learning and keyword filtering. To address the 3S problem, Co-Training based Manifold learning is adopted for keyword model construction. To achieve real-time annotation, a Bias Fisher Discriminant Analysis (BFDA) based semantic feature reduction algorithm is presented for keyword confidence discrimination and semantic feature reduction. Different from all existing annotation methods, MBFDA views image annotation from a novel Eigen semantic feature (which corresponds to keywords) selection aspect. As demonstrated in experiments, our manifold-based biased Fisher discriminant analysis annotation algorithm outperforms classical and state-of-art annotation methods (1.K-NN Expansion; 2.One-to-All SVM; 3.PWC-SVM) in both computational time and annotation accuracy with a large margin.

Relative risk estimates from spatial and space-time scan statistics: Are they biased?

PubMed Central

Prates, Marcos O.; Kulldorff, Martin; Assunção, Renato M.

2014-01-01

The purely spatial and space-time scan statistics have been successfully used by many scientists to detect and evaluate geographical disease clusters. Although the scan statistic has high power in correctly identifying a cluster, no study has considered the estimates of the cluster relative risk in the detected cluster. In this paper we evaluate whether there is any bias on these estimated relative risks. Intuitively, one may expect that the estimated relative risks has upward bias, since the scan statistic cherry picks high rate areas to include in the cluster. We show that this intuition is correct for clusters with low statistical power, but with medium to high power the bias becomes negligible. The same behaviour is not observed for the prospective space-time scan statistic, where there is an increasing conservative downward bias of the relative risk as the power to detect the cluster increases. PMID:24639031

Selection bias in rheumatic disease research

PubMed Central

Choi, Hyon K.; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa; Niu, Jingbo; Danaei, Goodarz; Zhang, Yuqing

2014-01-01

The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias—a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic—in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the ‘risk factor paradox’—a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research. PMID:24686510

Large-scale galaxy bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desjacques, Vincent; Jeong, Donghui; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-02-01

This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy statistics. We then review the excursion-set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

Tunable reverse-biased graphene/silicon heterojunction Schottky diode sensor.

PubMed

Singh, Amol; Uddin, Ahsan; Sudarshan, Tangali; Koley, Goutam

2014-04-24

A new chemical sensor based on reverse-biased graphene/Si heterojunction diode has been developed that exhibits extremely high bias-dependent molecular detection sensitivity and low operating power. The device takes advantage of graphene's atomically thin nature, which enables molecular adsorption on its surface to directly alter graphene/Si interface barrier height, thus affecting the junction current exponentially when operated in reverse bias and resulting in ultrahigh sensitivity. By operating the device in reverse bias, the work function of graphene, and hence the barrier height at the graphene/Si heterointerface, can be controlled by the bias magnitude, leading to a wide tunability of the molecular detection sensitivity. Such sensitivity control is also possible by carefully selecting the graphene/Si heterojunction Schottky barrier height. Compared to a conventional graphene amperometric sensor fabricated on the same chip, the proposed sensor demonstrated 13 times higher sensitivity for NO₂ and 3 times higher for NH₃ in ambient conditions, while consuming ∼500 times less power for same magnitude of applied voltage bias. The sensing mechanism based on heterojunction Schottky barrier height change has been confirmed using capacitance-voltage measurements. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Large-scale galaxy bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Donghui; Desjacques, Vincent; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-01-01

Here, we briefly introduce the key results of the recent review (arXiv:1611.09787), whose abstract is as following. This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy (or halo) statistics. We then review the excursion set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

A Perceptual Pathway to Bias: Interracial Exposure Reduces Abrupt Shifts in Real-Time Race Perception That Predict Mixed-Race Bias.

PubMed

Freeman, Jonathan B; Pauker, Kristin; Sanchez, Diana T

2016-04-01

In two national samples, we examined the influence of interracial exposure in one's local environment on the dynamic process underlying race perception and its evaluative consequences. Using a mouse-tracking paradigm, we found in Study 1 that White individuals with low interracial exposure exhibited a unique effect of abrupt, unstable White-Black category shifting during real-time perception of mixed-race faces, consistent with predictions from a neural-dynamic model of social categorization and computational simulations. In Study 2, this shifting effect was replicated and shown to predict a trust bias against mixed-race individuals and to mediate the effect of low interracial exposure on that trust bias. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that interracial exposure shapes the dynamics through which racial categories activate and resolve during real-time perceptions, and these initial perceptual dynamics, in turn, may help drive evaluative biases against mixed-race individuals. Thus, lower-level perceptual aspects of encounters with racial ambiguity may serve as a foundation for mixed-race prejudice. © The Author(s) 2016.

Temperature trend biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

2016-04-01

In an accompanying talk we show that well-homogenized national dataset warm more than temperatures from global collections averaged over the region of common coverage. In this poster we want to present auxiliary work about possible biases in the raw observations and on how well relative statistical homogenization can remove trend biases. There are several possible causes of cooling biases, which have not been studied much. Siting could be an important factor. Urban stations tend to move away from the centre to better locations. Many stations started inside of urban areas and are nowadays more outside. Even for villages the temperature difference between the centre and edge can be 0.5°C. When a city station moves to an airport, which often happened around WWII, this takes the station (largely) out of the urban heat island. During the 20th century the Stevenson screen was established as the dominant thermometer screen. This screen protected the thermometer much better against radiation than earlier designs. Deficits of earlier measurement methods have artificially warmed the temperatures in the 19th century. Newer studies suggest we may have underestimated the size of this bias. Currently we are in a transition to Automatic Weather Stations. The net global effect of this transition is not clear at this moment. Irrigation on average decreases the 2m-temperature by about 1 degree centigrade. At the same time, irrigation has increased significantly during the last century. People preferentially live in irrigated areas and weather stations serve agriculture. Thus it is possible that there is a higher likelihood that weather stations are erected in irrigated areas than elsewhere. In this case irrigation could lead to a spurious cooling trend. In the Parallel Observations Science Team of the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI-POST) we are studying influence of the introduction of Stevenson screens and Automatic Weather Stations using parallel measurements

Unconscious gender bias in fame judgments?

PubMed

Buchner, A; Wippich, W

1996-01-01

In two experiments the conditions of, and the processes leading to, gender biases in fame judgments were investigated. In Experiment 1, the gender bias was not reduced in a condition that alerted participants to the gender of the names. In Experiment 2, participants' sex-role orientation, but not their gender, was related to the gender bias. The process dissociation procedure was used in both experiments in an attempt to separate conscious and unconscious memory processes contributing to the gender bias. Using L.L. Jacoby's 1991) original measurement model there appeared to be evidence for unconscious influences on the gender bias in fame judgments. Unfortunately, this evidence disappeared when a model was used that takes guessing and, hence, response biases into account, which confirms that measurement models that ignore response biases in the process dissociation procedure may lead to erroneous conclusions.

Considerations for analysis of time-to-event outcomes measured with error: Bias and correction with SIMEX.

PubMed

Oh, Eric J; Shepherd, Bryan E; Lumley, Thomas; Shaw, Pamela A

2018-04-15

For time-to-event outcomes, a rich literature exists on the bias introduced by covariate measurement error in regression models, such as the Cox model, and methods of analysis to address this bias. By comparison, less attention has been given to understanding the impact or addressing errors in the failure time outcome. For many diseases, the timing of an event of interest (such as progression-free survival or time to AIDS progression) can be difficult to assess or reliant on self-report and therefore prone to measurement error. For linear models, it is well known that random errors in the outcome variable do not bias regression estimates. With nonlinear models, however, even random error or misclassification can introduce bias into estimated parameters. We compare the performance of 2 common regression models, the Cox and Weibull models, in the setting of measurement error in the failure time outcome. We introduce an extension of the SIMEX method to correct for bias in hazard ratio estimates from the Cox model and discuss other analysis options to address measurement error in the response. A formula to estimate the bias induced into the hazard ratio by classical measurement error in the event time for a log-linear survival model is presented. Detailed numerical studies are presented to examine the performance of the proposed SIMEX method under varying levels and parametric forms of the error in the outcome. We further illustrate the method with observational data on HIV outcomes from the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft

PubMed Central

Deaner, Robert O.; Lowen, Aaron; Cobley, Stephen

2013-01-01

Relative age effects (RAEs) occur when those who are relatively older for their age group are more likely to succeed. RAEs occur reliably in some educational and athletic contexts, yet the causal mechanisms remain unclear. Here we provide the first direct test of one mechanism, selection bias, which can be defined as evaluators granting fewer opportunities to relatively younger individuals than is warranted by their latent ability. Because RAEs are well-established in hockey, we analyzed National Hockey League (NHL) drafts from 1980 to 2006. Compared to those born in the first quarter (i.e., January–March), those born in the third and fourth quarters were drafted more than 40 slots later than their productivity warranted, and they were roughly twice as likely to reach career benchmarks, such as 400 games played or 200 points scored. This selection bias in drafting did not decrease over time, apparently continues to occur, and reduces the playing opportunities of relatively younger players. This bias is remarkable because it is exhibited by professional decision makers evaluating adults in a context where RAEs have been widely publicized. Thus, selection bias based on relative age may be pervasive. PMID:23460902

Immortal time bias in drug safety cohort studies: spontaneous abortion following nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug exposure.

PubMed

Daniel, Sharon; Koren, Gideon; Lunenfeld, Eitan; Levy, Amalia

2015-03-01

Experimental research of drug safety in pregnancy is generally not feasible because of ethical issues. Therefore, most of the information about drug safety in general and teratogenicity in particular is obtained through observational studies, which require careful methodologic design to obtain unbiased results. Immortal time bias occurs when some cases do not "survive" sufficient time in the study, and as such, they have reduced chances of being defined as "exposed" simply because the durations of their follow-ups were shorter. For example, studies that examine the risk for spontaneous abortions in women exposed to a drug during pregnancy are susceptible to immortal time bias because the chance of drug exposure increases the longer a pregnancy lasts. Therefore, the drug tested may falsely be found protective against the outcome tested. The objective of the current study was to illustrate the extent of immortal time bias using a cohort study of pregnancies assessing the risk for spontaneous abortions following nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug exposure. We assembled 3 databases containing data on spontaneous abortions, births and drug dispensions to create the present study's cohort. The risk for spontaneous abortion was assessed using 2 statistical analysis methods that were compared for 2 definitions of exposure (dichotomous, exposed vs unexposed, regular Cox regression vs Cox regression with time-varying exposure). Significant differences were found in the risk for spontaneous abortions between the 2 statistical methods, both for groups and for most specific nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (nonselective Cox inhibitors - hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.94 vs hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.22 for dichotomous vs time-varying exposure analyses, respectively). Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between the median misclassified immortal time for each drug and the extent of the bias. Immortal time bias can

Observational selection biases in time-delay strong lensing and their impact on cosmography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collett, Thomas E.; Cunnington, Steven D.

2016-11-01

Inferring cosmological parameters from time-delay strong lenses requires a significant investment of telescope time; it is therefore tempting to focus on the systems with the brightest sources, the highest image multiplicities and the widest image separations. We investigate if this selection bias can influence the properties of the lenses studied and the cosmological parameters inferred. Using an ellipsoidal power-law deflector population, we build a sample of double- and quadruple-image systems. Assuming reasonable thresholds on image separation and flux, based on current lens monitoring campaigns, we find that the typical density profile slopes of monitorable lenses are significantly shallower than the input ensemble. From a sample of quads, we find that this selection function can introduce a 3.5 per cent bias on the inferred time-delay distances if the properties of the input ensemble are (incorrectly) used as priors on the lens model. This bias remains at the 2.4 per cent level when high-resolution imaging of the quasar host is used to precisely infer the properties of individual lenses. We also investigate if the lines of sight for monitorable strong lenses are biased. The expectation value for the line-of-sight convergence is increased by 0.009 (0.004) for quads (doubles) implying a 0.9 per cent (0.4 per cent) bias on H0. We therefore conclude that whilst the properties of typical quasar lenses and their lines of sight do deviate from the global population, the total magnitude of this effect is likely to be a subdominant effect for current analyses, but has the potential to be a major systematic for samples of ˜25 or more lenses.

Bias correction of satellite precipitation products for flood forecasting application at the Upper Mahanadi River Basin in Eastern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beria, H.; Nanda, T., Sr.; Chatterjee, C.

2015-12-01

High resolution satellite precipitation products such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), etc., offer a promising alternative to flood forecasting in data scarce regions. At the current state-of-art, these products cannot be used in the raw form for flood forecasting, even at smaller lead times. In the current study, these precipitation products are bias corrected using statistical techniques, such as additive and multiplicative bias corrections, and wavelet multi-resolution analysis (MRA) with India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product,obtained from gauge-based rainfall estimates. Neural network based rainfall-runoff modeling using these bias corrected products provide encouraging results for flood forecasting upto 48 hours lead time. We will present various statistical and graphical interpretations of catchment response to high rainfall events using both the raw and bias corrected precipitation products at different lead times.

Immortal time bias in the study of stillbirth risk factors: the example of gestational diabetes.

PubMed

Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Kuret, Verena; Joseph, K S; Sabr, Yasser; Lim, Kenneth

2013-11-01

Current understanding of the increased risk for stillbirth in gestational diabetes mellitus is often based on large cohort studies in which the risk of stillbirth in women with this disease is compared with the risk in women without. However, such studies could be susceptible to immortal time bias because, although many cohorts begin at 20 weeks' gestation, pregnancies must "survive" until 24-28 weeks in order to be screened and diagnosed with gestational diabetes. We describe the theoretical potential for immortal time bias in studies of stillbirth and gestational diabetes and then quantify the magnitude of the bias using 2006 United States vital statistics data. Although gestational diabetes was protective against stillbirth when including all births (relative risk = 0.88 [95% confidence interval = 0.79-0.99]), restricting analyses to births at >28 weeks' gestation reversed the effect and diabetes became associated with an increased risk of stillbirth (1.25 [1.11-1.41]). Immortal time before diagnosis of gestational diabetes may bias our understanding of the stillbirth risk associated with this condition.

Time-Lag Bias in Trials of Pediatric Antidepressants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Reyes, Magdalena M.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Martin, Andrés; Bloch, Michael H.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine if there is evidence of a time-lag bias in the publication of pediatric antidepressant trials. Method We conducted a meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomized, placebo-controlled trials of serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) in subjects less than 18 years old with major depressive disorder. Our main outcomes were (1) time to publication of positive versus negative trials, and (2) proportion of treatment responders in trials with standard (< 3 years after study completion) versus delayed publication. Results We identified 15 randomized, placebo-controlled trials of SRIs for pediatric depression. Trials with negative findings had a significantly longer time to publication (median years ± standard deviation = 4.2 ±1.9) than trials with positive findings (2.2 ±0.9; log-rank χ2 = 4.35, p = 0.037). The estimated efficacy in trials with standard publication time (number needed to treat = 7, 95% CI: 5 – 11) was significantly greater than those with delayed publication (17, 95% CI: 9 – ∞; χ2 = 4.98, p = 0.025). The inflation-adjusted impact factor of journals for published trials with positive (15.33 ±11.01) and negative results (7.54 ±7.90) did not statistically differ (t = 1.4, df = 10, p = 0.17). Conclusions Despite a small number of trials of SRIs for pediatric antidepressants we found a significant evidence of time-lag bias in the publication of findings. This time-lag bias altered the perceived efficacy of pediatric antidepressants in the medical literature. Time-lag bias is not unique to child psychiatry and reflects a larger problem in scientific publishing. PMID:21156271

Time on your hands: Perceived duration of sensory events is biased toward concurrent actions.

PubMed

Yon, Daniel; Edey, Rosanna; Ivry, Richard B; Press, Clare

2017-02-01

Perceptual systems must rapidly generate accurate representations of the world from sensory inputs that are corrupted by internal and external noise. We can typically obtain more veridical representations by integrating information from multiple channels, but this integration can lead to biases when inputs are, in fact, not from the same source. Although a considerable amount is known about how different sources of information are combined to influence what we perceive, it is not known whether temporal features are combined. It is vital to address this question given the divergent predictions made by different models of cue combination and time perception concerning the plausibility of cross-modal temporal integration, and the implications that such integration would have for research programs in action control and social cognition. Here we present four experiments investigating the influence of movement duration on the perceived duration of an auditory tone. Participants either explicitly (Experiments 1-2) or implicitly (Experiments 3-4) produced hand movements of shorter or longer durations, while judging the duration of a concurrently presented tone (500-950 ms in duration). Across all experiments, judgments of tone duration were attracted toward the duration of executed movements (i.e., tones were perceived to be longer when executing a movement of longer duration). Our results demonstrate that temporal information associated with movement biases perceived auditory duration, placing important constraints on theories modeling cue integration for state estimation, as well as models of time perception, action control and social cognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Biased predecisional processing of leading and nonleading alternatives.

PubMed

Blanchard, Simon J; Carlson, Kurt A; Meloy, Margaret G

2014-03-01

When people obtain information about choice alternatives in a set one attribute at a time, they rapidly identify a leading alternative. Although previous research has established that people then distort incoming information, it is unclear whether distortion occurs through favoring of the leading alternative, disfavoring of the trailing alternative, or both. Prior examinations have not explored the predecisional treatment of the nonleading alternative (or alternatives) because they conceptualized distortion as a singular construct in binary choice and measured it using a relative item comparing the evaluation of both alternatives simultaneously. In this article, we introduce a measure of distortion at the level of the alternative, which allows for measuring whether predecisional distortion favors or disfavors every alternative being considered in choice sets of various sizes. We report that both proleader and antitrailer distortion occur and that the use of antitrailer processing differs between binary choices and multiple-options choices.

Lax decision criteria lead to negativity bias: evidence from the emotional stroop task.

PubMed

Liu, Guofang; Xin, Ziqiang; Lin, Chongde

2014-06-01

Negativity bias means that negative information is usually given more emphasis than comparable positive information. Under signal detection theory, recent research found that people more frequently and incorrectly identify negative task-related words as having been presented originally than positive words, even when they were not presented. That is, people have lax decision criteria for negative words. However, the response biases for task-unrelated negative words and for emotionally important words are still unclear. This study investigated response bias for these two kinds of words. Study 1 examined the response bias for task-unrelated negative words using an emotional Stroop task. Proportions of correct recognition to negative and positive words were assessed by non-parametric signal detection analysis. Participants have lower (i.e., more lax) decision criteria for task-unrelated negative words than for positive words. Study 2 supported and expanded this result by investigating participants' response bias for highly emotional words. Participants have lower decision criteria for highly emotional words than for less emotional words. Finally, possible evolutionary sources of the response bias were discussed.

Brief time course of trait anxiety-related attentional bias to fear-conditioned stimuli: Evidence from the dual-RSVP task.

PubMed

Booth, Robert W

2017-03-01

Attentional bias to threat is a much-studied feature of anxiety; it is typically assessed using response time (RT) tasks such as the dot probe. Findings regarding the time course of attentional bias have been inconsistent, possibly because RT tasks are sensitive to processes downstream of attention. Attentional bias was assessed using an accuracy-based task in which participants detected a single digit in two simultaneous rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) streams of letters. Before the target, two coloured shapes were presented simultaneously, one in each RSVP stream; one shape had previously been associated with threat through Pavlovian fear conditioning. Attentional bias was indicated wherever participants identified targets in the threat's RSVP stream more accurately than targets in the other RSVP stream. In 87 unselected undergraduates, trait anxiety only predicted attentional bias when the target was presented immediately following the shapes, i.e. 160 ms later; by 320 ms the bias had disappeared. This suggests attentional bias in anxiety can be extremely brief and transitory. This initial study utilised an analogue sample, and was unable to physiologically verify the efficacy of the conditioning. The next steps will be to verify these results in a sample of diagnosed anxious patients, and to use alternative threat stimuli. The results of studies using response time to assess the time course of attentional bias may partially reflect later processes such as decision making and response preparation. This may limit the efficacy of therapies aiming to retrain attentional biases using response time tasks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducing Time-dependent Bias in Estimates of the Attributable Cost of Health Care-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infections: A Comparison of Three Estimation Strategies.

PubMed

Nelson, Richard E; Samore, Matthew H; Jones, Makoto; Greene, Tom; Stevens, Vanessa W; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Graves, Nicholas; Evans, Martin F; Rubin, Michael A

2015-09-01

Previous estimates of the excess costs due to health care-associated infection (HAI) have scarcely addressed the issue of time-dependent bias. We examined time-dependent bias by estimating the health care costs attributable to an HAI due to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) using a unique dataset in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) that makes it possible to distinguish between costs that occurred before and after an HAI. In addition, we compare our results to those from 2 other estimation strategies. Using a historical cohort study design to estimate the excess predischarge costs attributable to MRSA HAIs, we conducted 3 analyses: (1) conventional, in which costs for the entire inpatient stay were compared between patients with and without MRSA HAIs; (2) post-HAI, which included only costs that occurred after an infection; and (3) matched, in which costs for the entire inpatient stay were compared between patients with an MRSA HAI and subset of patients without an MRSA HAI who were matched based on the time to infection. In our post-HAI analysis, estimates of the increase in inpatient costs due to MRSA HAI were $12,559 (P<0.0001) and $24,015 (P<0.0001) for variable and total costs, respectively. The excess variable and total cost estimates were 33.7% and 31.5% higher, respectively, when using the conventional methods and 14.6% and 11.8% higher, respectively, when using matched methods. This is the first study to account for time-dependent bias in the estimation of incremental per-patient health care costs attributable to HAI using a unique dataset in the VA. We found that failure to account for this bias can lead to overestimation of these costs. Matching on the timing of infection can reduce this bias substantially.

The lead time tradeoff: the case of health states better than dead.

PubMed

Pinto-Prades, José Luis; Rodríguez-Míguez, Eva

2015-04-01

Lead time tradeoff (L-TTO) is a variant of the time tradeoff (TTO). L-TTO introduces a lead period in full health before illness onset, avoiding the need to use 2 different procedures for states better and worse than dead. To estimate utilities, additive separability is assumed. We tested to what extent violations of this assumption can bias utilities estimated with L-TTO. A sample of 500 members of the Spanish general population evaluated 24 health states, using face-to-face interviews. A total of 188 subjects were interviewed with L-TTO and the rest with TTO. Both samples evaluated the same set of 24 health states, divided into 4 groups with 6 health states per set. Each subject evaluated 1 of the sets. A random effects regression model was fitted to our data. Only health states better than dead were included in the regression since it is in this subset where additive separability can be tested clearly. Utilities were higher in L-TTO in relation to TTO (on average L-TTO adds about 0.2 points to the utility of health states), suggesting that additive separability is violated. The difference between methods increased with the severity of the health state. Thus, L-TTO adds about 0.14 points to the average utility of the less severe states, 0.23 to the intermediate states, and 0.28 points to the more severe estates. L-TTO produced higher utilities than TTO. Health problems are perceived as less severe if a lead period in full health is added upfront, implying that there are interactions between disjointed time periods. The advantages of this method have to be compared with the cost of modeling the interaction between periods. © The Author(s) 2014.

Extending flood forecasting lead time in a large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ji; Chen, Yangbo; Wang, Huanyu; Qin, Jianming; Li, Jie; Chiao, Sen

2017-03-01

Long lead time flood forecasting is very important for large watershed flood mitigation as it provides more time for flood warning and emergency responses. The latest numerical weather forecast model could provide 1-15-day quantitative precipitation forecasting products in grid format, and by coupling this product with a distributed hydrological model could produce long lead time watershed flood forecasting products. This paper studied the feasibility of coupling the Liuxihe model with the Weather Research and Forecasting quantitative precipitation forecast (WRF QPF) for large watershed flood forecasting in southern China. The QPF of WRF products has three lead times, including 24, 48 and 72 h, with the grid resolution being 20 km  × 20 km. The Liuxihe model is set up with freely downloaded terrain property; the model parameters were previously optimized with rain gauge observed precipitation, and re-optimized with the WRF QPF. Results show that the WRF QPF has bias with the rain gauge precipitation, and a post-processing method is proposed to post-process the WRF QPF products, which improves the flood forecasting capability. With model parameter re-optimization, the model's performance improves also. This suggests that the model parameters be optimized with QPF, not the rain gauge precipitation. With the increasing of lead time, the accuracy of the WRF QPF decreases, as does the flood forecasting capability. Flood forecasting products produced by coupling the Liuxihe model with the WRF QPF provide a good reference for large watershed flood warning due to its long lead time and rational results.

Comparing the impact of time displaced and biased precipitation estimates for online updated urban runoff models.

PubMed

Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2013-01-01

When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements, the requirements of the precipitation input change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time when the rain hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual catchment, due to the time it takes for the rain cell to travel from the rain gauge to the catchment. Since this time displacement is not present for system measurements the data assimilation scheme might already have updated the model to include the impact from the particular rain cell when the rain data is forced upon the model, which therefore will end up including the same rain twice in the model run. This paper compares forecast accuracy of updated models when using time displaced rain input to that of rain input with constant biases. This is done using a simple time-area model and historic rain series that are either displaced in time or affected with a bias. The results show that for a 10 minute forecast, time displacements of 5 and 10 minutes compare to biases of 60 and 100%, respectively, independent of the catchments time of concentration.

Complete depletion of primordial germ cells in an All-female fish leads to Sex-biased gene expression alteration and sterile All-male occurrence.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Li, Shi-Zhu; Li, Zhi; Wang, Yang; Li, Xi-Yin; Zhong, Jian-Xiang; Zhang, Xiao-Juan; Zhang, Jun; Zhou, Li; Gui, Jian-Fang

2015-11-18

Gynogenesis is one of unisexual reproduction modes in vertebrates, and produces all-female individuals with identical genetic background. In sexual reproduction vertebrates, the roles of primordial germ cells on sexual dimorphism and gonadal differentiation have been largely studied, and two distinct functional models have been proposed. However, the role of primordial germ cells remains unknown in unisexual animals, and it is also unclear whether the functional models in sexual reproduction animals are common in unisexual animals. To solve these puzzles, we attempt to utilize the gynogenetic superiority of polyploid Carassius gibelio to create a complete germ cell-depleted gonad model by a similar morpholino-mediated knockdown approach used in other examined sexual reproduction fishes. Through the germ cell-depleted gonad model, we have performed comprehensive and comparative transcriptome analysis, and revealed a complete alteration of sex-biased gene expression. Moreover, the expression alteration leads to up-regulation of testis-biased genes and down-regulation of ovary-biased genes, and results in the occurrence of sterile all-males with testis-like gonads and secondary sex characteristics in the germ cell-depleted gynogenetic Carassius gibelio. Our current results have demonstrated that unisexual gynogenetic embryos remain keeping male sex determination information in the genome, and the complete depletion of primordial germ cells in the all-female fish leads to sex-biased gene expression alteration and sterile all-male occurrence.

Addressing Spatial Dependence Bias in Climate Model Simulations—An Independent Component Analysis Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahar, Jannatun; Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2018-02-01

Conventional bias correction is usually applied on a grid-by-grid basis, meaning that the resulting corrections cannot address biases in the spatial distribution of climate variables. To solve this problem, a two-step bias correction method is proposed here to correct time series at multiple locations conjointly. The first step transforms the data to a set of statistically independent univariate time series, using a technique known as independent component analysis (ICA). The mutually independent signals can then be bias corrected as univariate time series and back-transformed to improve the representation of spatial dependence in the data. The spatially corrected data are then bias corrected at the grid scale in the second step. The method has been applied to two CMIP5 General Circulation Model simulations for six different climate regions of Australia for two climate variables—temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that the ICA-based technique leads to considerable improvements in temperature simulations with more modest improvements in precipitation. Overall, the method results in current climate simulations that have greater equivalency in space and time with observational data.

An improved grey model for the prediction of real-time GPS satellite clock bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Z. Y.; Chen, Y. Q.; Lu, X. S.

2008-07-01

In real-time GPS precise point positioning (PPP), real-time and reliable satellite clock bias (SCB) prediction is a key to implement real-time GPS PPP. It is difficult to hold the nuisance and inenarrable performance of space-borne GPS satellite atomic clock because of its high-frequency, sensitivity and impressionable, it accords with the property of grey model (GM) theory, i. e. we can look on the variable process of SCB as grey system. Firstly, based on limits of quadratic polynomial (QP) and traditional GM to predict SCB, a modified GM (1,1) is put forward to predict GPS SCB in this paper; and then, taking GPS SCB data for example, we analyzed clock bias prediction with different sample interval, the relationship between GM exponent and prediction accuracy, precision comparison of GM to QP, and concluded the general rule of different type SCB and GM exponent; finally, to test the reliability and validation of the modified GM what we put forward, taking IGS clock bias ephemeris product as reference, we analyzed the prediction precision with the modified GM, It is showed that the modified GM is reliable and validation to predict GPS SCB and can offer high precise SCB prediction for real-time GPS PPP.

Further exploration of dissemination bias in qualitative research required to facilitate assessment within qualitative evidence syntheses.

PubMed

Toews, Ingrid; Booth, Andrew; Berg, Rigmor C; Lewin, Simon; Glenton, Claire; Munthe-Kaas, Heather M; Noyes, Jane; Schroter, Sara; Meerpohl, Joerg J

2017-08-01

To conceptualise and discuss dissemination bias in qualitative research. It is likely that the mechanisms leading to dissemination bias in quantitative research, including time lag, language, gray literature, and truncation bias also contribute to dissemination bias in qualitative research. These conceptual considerations have informed the development of a research agenda. Further exploration of dissemination bias in qualitative research is needed, including the extent of non-dissemination and related dissemination bias, and how to assess dissemination bias within qualitative evidence syntheses. We also need to consider the mechanisms through which dissemination bias in qualitative research could occur to explore approaches for reducing it. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Eye Movements while Reading Biased Homographs: Effects of Prior Encounter and Biasing Context on Reducing the Subordinate Bias Effect

PubMed Central

Leinenger, Mallorie; Rayner, Keith

2013-01-01

Readers experience processing difficulties when reading biased homographs preceded by subordinate-biasing contexts. Attempts to overcome this processing deficit have often failed to reduce the subordinate bias effect (SBE). In the present studies, we examined the processing of biased homographs preceded by single-sentence, subordinate-biasing contexts, and varied whether this preceding context contained a prior instance of the homograph or a control word/phrase. Having previously encountered the homograph earlier in the sentence reduced the SBE for the subsequent encounter, while simply instantiating the subordinate meaning produced processing difficulty. We compared these reductions in reading times to differences in processing time between dominant-biased repeated and non-repeated conditions in order to verify that the reductions observed in the subordinate cases did not simply reflect a general repetition benefit. Our results indicate that a strong, subordinate-biasing context can interact during lexical access to overcome the activation from meaning frequency and reduce the SBE during reading. PMID:24073328

Reducing bias in survival under non-random temporary emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Langtimm, Catherine Ann

2014-01-01

Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard life-history parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified, nonetheless there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable non-random temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data was effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naïve constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, though still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several

Real-Time PPP Based on the Coupling Estimation of Clock Bias and Orbit Error with Broadcast Ephemeris.

PubMed

Pan, Shuguo; Chen, Weirong; Jin, Xiaodong; Shi, Xiaofei; He, Fan

2015-07-22

Satellite orbit error and clock bias are the keys to precise point positioning (PPP). The traditional PPP algorithm requires precise satellite products based on worldwide permanent reference stations. Such an algorithm requires considerable work and hardly achieves real-time performance. However, real-time positioning service will be the dominant mode in the future. IGS is providing such an operational service (RTS) and there are also commercial systems like Trimble RTX in operation. On the basis of the regional Continuous Operational Reference System (CORS), a real-time PPP algorithm is proposed to apply the coupling estimation of clock bias and orbit error. The projection of orbit error onto the satellite-receiver range has the same effects on positioning accuracy with clock bias. Therefore, in satellite clock estimation, part of the orbit error can be absorbed by the clock bias and the effects of residual orbit error on positioning accuracy can be weakened by the evenly distributed satellite geometry. In consideration of the simple structure of pseudorange equations and the high precision of carrier-phase equations, the clock bias estimation method coupled with orbit error is also improved. Rovers obtain PPP results by receiving broadcast ephemeris and real-time satellite clock bias coupled with orbit error. By applying the proposed algorithm, the precise orbit products provided by GNSS analysis centers are rendered no longer necessary. On the basis of previous theoretical analysis, a real-time PPP system was developed. Some experiments were then designed to verify this algorithm. Experimental results show that the newly proposed approach performs better than the traditional PPP based on International GNSS Service (IGS) real-time products. The positioning accuracies of the rovers inside and outside the network are improved by 38.8% and 36.1%, respectively. The PPP convergence speeds are improved by up to 61.4% and 65.9%. The new approach can change the

Time Biases in laser ranging measurements; impacts on geodetic products (Reference Frame and Orbitography)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belli, A.; Exertier, P.; Lemoine, F. G.; Chinn, D. S.; Zelensky, N. P.

2017-12-01

The GGOS objectives are to maintain a geodetic network with an accuracy of 1 mm and a stability of 0.1 mm per year. For years, the laser ranging technique, which provide very accurate absolute distances to geodetic targets enable to determine the scale factor as well as coordinates of the geocenter. In order to achieve this goal, systematic errors appearing in the laser ranging measurements must be considered and solved. In addition to Range Bias (RB), which is the primary source of uncertainty of the technique, Time Bias (TB) has been recently detected by using the Time Transfer by Laser Link (T2L2) space instrument capability on-board the satellite Jason-2. Instead of determining TB through the precise orbit determination that is applied to commonly used geodetic targets like LAGEOS to estimate global geodetic products, we have developed, independently, a dedicated method to transfer time between remote satellite laser ranging stations. As a result, the evolving clock phase shift to UTC of around 30 stations has been determined under the form of time series of time bias per station from 2008 to 2016 with an accuracy of 3-4 ns. It demonstrated the difficulty, in terms of Time & Frequency used technologies, to locally maintain accuracy and long term stability at least in the range of 100 ns that is the current requirement for time measurements (UTC) for the laser ranging technique. Because some laser ranging stations oftently exceed this limit (from 100 ns to a few μs) we have been studying these effects first on the precision orbit determination itself, second on the station positioning. We discuss the impact of TB on LAGEOS and Jason-2 orbits, which appears to affect the along-track component essentially. We also investigate the role of TB in global geodetic parameters as the station coordinates. Finally, we propose to provide the community with time series of time bias of laser ranging stations, under the form of a data- handling-file in order to be included in

Self-esteem modulates the time course of self-positivity bias in explicit self-evaluation.

PubMed

Zhang, Hua; Guan, Lili; Qi, Mingming; Yang, Juan

2013-01-01

Researchers have suggested that certain individuals may show a self-positivity bias, rating themselves as possessing more positive personality traits than others. Previous evidence has shown that people evaluate self-related information in such a way as to maintain or enhance self-esteem. However, whether self-esteem would modulate the time course of self-positivity bias in explicit self-evaluation has never been explored. In the present study, 21 participants completed the Rosenberg self-esteem scale and then completed a task where they were instructed to indicate to what extent positive/negative traits described themselves. Behavioral data showed that participants endorsed positive traits as higher in self-relevance compared to the negative traits. Further, participants' self-esteem levels were positively correlated with their self-positivity bias. Electrophysiological data revealed smaller N1 amplitude and larger late positive component (LPC) amplitude to stimuli consistent with the self-positivity bias (positive-high self-relevant stimuli) when compared to stimuli that were inconsistent with the self-positivity bias (positive-low self-relevant stimuli). Moreover, only in individuals with low self-esteem, the latency of P2 was more pronounced in processing stimuli that were consistent with the self-positivity bias (negative-low self-relevant stimuli) than to stimuli that were inconsistent with the self-positivity bias (positive-low self-relevant stimuli). Overall, the present study provides additional support for the view that low self-esteem as a personality variable would affect the early attentional processing.

Ranking Bias in Association Studies

PubMed Central

Jeffries, Neal O.

2009-01-01

Background It is widely appreciated that genomewide association studies often yield overestimates of the association of a marker with disease when attention focuses upon the marker showing the strongest relationship. For example, in a case-control setting the largest (in absolute value) estimated odds ratio has been found to typically overstate the association as measured in a second, independent set of data. The most common reason given for this observation is that the choice of the most extreme test statistic is often conditional upon first observing a significant p value associated with the marker. A second, less appreciated reason is described here. Under common circumstances it is the multiple testing of many markers and subsequent focus upon those with most extreme test statistics (i.e. highly ranked results) that leads to bias in the estimated effect sizes. Conclusions This bias, termed ranking bias, is separate from that arising from conditioning on a significant p value and may often be a more important factor in generating bias. An analytic description of this bias, simulations demonstrating its extent, and identification of some factors leading to its exacerbation are presented. PMID:19172085

Social exclusion leads to attentional bias to emotional social information: Evidence from eye movement

PubMed Central

Xiang, Min; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Shuyue

2017-01-01

Social exclusion has many effects on individuals, including the increased need to belong and elevated sensitivity to social information. Using a self-reporting method, and an eye-tracking technique, this study explored people’s need to belong and attentional bias towards the socio-emotional information (pictures of positive and negative facial expressions compared to those of emotionally-neutral expressions) after experiencing a brief episode of social exclusion. We found that: (1) socially-excluded individuals reported higher negative emotions, lower positive emotions, and stronger need to belong than those who were not socially excluded; (2) compared to a control condition, social exclusion caused a longer response time to probe dots after viewing positive or negative face images; (3) social exclusion resulted in a higher frequency ratio of first attentional fixation on both positive and negative emotional facial pictures (but not on the neutral pictures) than the control condition; (4) in the social exclusion condition, participants showed shorter first fixation latency and longer first fixation duration to positive pictures than neutral ones but this effect was not observed for negative pictures; (5) participants who experienced social exclusion also showed longer gazing duration on the positive pictures than those who did not; although group differences also existed for the negative pictures, the gaze duration bias from both groups showed no difference from chance. This study demonstrated the emotional response to social exclusion as well as characterising multiple eye-movement indicators of attentional bias after experiencing social exclusion. PMID:29040279

Social exclusion leads to attentional bias to emotional social information: Evidence from eye movement.

PubMed

Chen, Zhuohao; Du, Jinchen; Xiang, Min; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Shuyue

2017-01-01

Social exclusion has many effects on individuals, including the increased need to belong and elevated sensitivity to social information. Using a self-reporting method, and an eye-tracking technique, this study explored people's need to belong and attentional bias towards the socio-emotional information (pictures of positive and negative facial expressions compared to those of emotionally-neutral expressions) after experiencing a brief episode of social exclusion. We found that: (1) socially-excluded individuals reported higher negative emotions, lower positive emotions, and stronger need to belong than those who were not socially excluded; (2) compared to a control condition, social exclusion caused a longer response time to probe dots after viewing positive or negative face images; (3) social exclusion resulted in a higher frequency ratio of first attentional fixation on both positive and negative emotional facial pictures (but not on the neutral pictures) than the control condition; (4) in the social exclusion condition, participants showed shorter first fixation latency and longer first fixation duration to positive pictures than neutral ones but this effect was not observed for negative pictures; (5) participants who experienced social exclusion also showed longer gazing duration on the positive pictures than those who did not; although group differences also existed for the negative pictures, the gaze duration bias from both groups showed no difference from chance. This study demonstrated the emotional response to social exclusion as well as characterising multiple eye-movement indicators of attentional bias after experiencing social exclusion.

Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedlak, J.

1995-01-01

This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are

The Politics of Affirmation Theory: When Group-Affirmation Leads to Greater Ingroup Bias.

PubMed

Ehrlich, Gaven A; Gramzow, Richard H

2015-08-01

It has been well established in the literature that affirming the individual self reduces the tendency to exhibit group-favoring biases. The limited research examining group-affirmation and bias, however, is inconclusive. We argue that group-affirmation can exacerbate group-serving biases in certain contexts, and in the current set of studies, we document this phenomenon directly. Unlike self-affirmation, group-affirmation led to greater ingroup-favoring evaluative judgments among political partisans (Experiment 1). This increase in evaluative bias following group-affirmation was moderated by political party identification and was not found among those who affirmed a non-political ingroup (Experiment 2). In addition, the mechanism underlying these findings is explored and interpreted within the theoretical frameworks of self-categorization theory and the multiple self-aspects model (Experiments 2 and 3). The broader implications of our findings for the understanding of social identity and affirmation theory are discussed. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate of the fraction of drug absorbed.

PubMed

Wang, Yibin; Nedelman, Jerry

2002-04-01

To examine and quantify bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate of the fraction of drug absorbed resulting from the estimation error of the elimination rate constant (k), measurement error of the drug concentration, and the truncation error in the area under the curve. Bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate was derived as a function of post-dosing time (t), k, ratio of absorption rate constant to k (r), and the coefficient of variation for estimates of k (CVk), or CV% for the observed concentration, by assuming a one-compartment model and using an independent estimate of k. The derived functions were used for evaluating the bias with r = 0.5, 3, or 6; k = 0.1 or 0.2; CV, = 0.2 or 0.4; and CV, =0.2 or 0.4; for t = 0 to 30 or 60. Estimation error of k resulted in an upward bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate that could lead to the estimate of the fraction absorbed being greater than unity. The bias resulting from the estimation error of k inflates the fraction of absorption vs. time profiles mainly in the early post-dosing period. The magnitude of the bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate resulting from estimation error of k was mainly determined by CV,. The bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate resulting from to estimation error in k can be dramatically reduced by use of the mean of several independent estimates of k, as in studies for development of an in vivo-in vitro correlation. The truncation error in the area under the curve can introduce a negative bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate. This can partially offset the bias resulting from estimation error of k in the early post-dosing period. Measurement error of concentration does not introduce bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate. Estimation error of k results in an upward bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate, mainly in the early drug absorption phase. The truncation error in AUC can result in a downward bias, which may partially offset the upward bias due to estimation error of k in the early absorption phase. Measurement error of

Non-random temporary emigration and the robust design: Conditions for bias at the end of a time series: Section VIII

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, Catherine A.

2008-01-01

Knowing the extent and magnitude of the potential bias can help in making decisions as to what time frame provides the best estimates or the most reliable opportunity to model and test hypotheses about factors affecting survival probability. To assess bias, truncating the capture histories to shorter time frames and reanalyzing the data to compare time-specific estimates may help identify spurious effects. Running simulations that mimic the parameter values and movement conditions in the real situation can provide estimates of standardized bias that can be used to identify those annual estimates that are biased to the point where the 95% confidence intervals are inadequate in describing the uncertainty of the estimates.

Real-Time PPP Based on the Coupling Estimation of Clock Bias and Orbit Error with Broadcast Ephemeris

PubMed Central

Pan, Shuguo; Chen, Weirong; Jin, Xiaodong; Shi, Xiaofei; He, Fan

2015-01-01

Satellite orbit error and clock bias are the keys to precise point positioning (PPP). The traditional PPP algorithm requires precise satellite products based on worldwide permanent reference stations. Such an algorithm requires considerable work and hardly achieves real-time performance. However, real-time positioning service will be the dominant mode in the future. IGS is providing such an operational service (RTS) and there are also commercial systems like Trimble RTX in operation. On the basis of the regional Continuous Operational Reference System (CORS), a real-time PPP algorithm is proposed to apply the coupling estimation of clock bias and orbit error. The projection of orbit error onto the satellite-receiver range has the same effects on positioning accuracy with clock bias. Therefore, in satellite clock estimation, part of the orbit error can be absorbed by the clock bias and the effects of residual orbit error on positioning accuracy can be weakened by the evenly distributed satellite geometry. In consideration of the simple structure of pseudorange equations and the high precision of carrier-phase equations, the clock bias estimation method coupled with orbit error is also improved. Rovers obtain PPP results by receiving broadcast ephemeris and real-time satellite clock bias coupled with orbit error. By applying the proposed algorithm, the precise orbit products provided by GNSS analysis centers are rendered no longer necessary. On the basis of previous theoretical analysis, a real-time PPP system was developed. Some experiments were then designed to verify this algorithm. Experimental results show that the newly proposed approach performs better than the traditional PPP based on International GNSS Service (IGS) real-time products. The positioning accuracies of the rovers inside and outside the network are improved by 38.8% and 36.1%, respectively. The PPP convergence speeds are improved by up to 61.4% and 65.9%. The new approach can change the

Attention Biases to Threat Link Behavioral Inhibition to Social Withdrawal over Time in Very Young Children

PubMed Central

Reeb-Sutherland, Bethany C.; McDermott, Jennifer Martin; White, Lauren K.; Henderson, Heather A.; Degnan, Kathryn A.; Hane, Amie A.; Pine, Daniel S.; Fox, Nathan A.

2013-01-01

Behaviorally inhibited children display a temperamental profile characterized by social withdrawal and anxious behaviors. Previous research, focused largely on adolescents, suggests that attention biases to threat may sustain high levels of behavioral inhibition (BI) over time, helping link early temperament to social outcomes. However, no prior studies examine the association between attention bias and BI before adolescence. The current study examined the interrelations among BI, attention biases to threat, and social withdrawal already manifest in early childhood. Children (N=187, 83 Male, Mage=61.96 months) were characterized for BI in toddlerhood (24 & 36 months). At 5 years, they completed an attention bias task and concurrent social withdrawal was measured. As expected, BI in toddlerhood predicted high levels of social withdrawal in early childhood. However, this relation was moderated by attention bias. The BI-withdrawal association was only evident for children who displayed an attention bias toward threat. The data provide further support for models associating attention with socioemotional development and the later emergence of clinical anxiety. PMID:21318555

Attention biases to threat link behavioral inhibition to social withdrawal over time in very young children.

PubMed

Pérez-Edgar, Koraly; Reeb-Sutherland, Bethany C; McDermott, Jennifer Martin; White, Lauren K; Henderson, Heather A; Degnan, Kathryn A; Hane, Amie A; Pine, Daniel S; Fox, Nathan A

2011-08-01

Behaviorally inhibited children display a temperamental profile characterized by social withdrawal and anxious behaviors. Previous research, focused largely on adolescents, suggests that attention biases to threat may sustain high levels of behavioral inhibition (BI) over time, helping link early temperament to social outcomes. However, no prior studies examine the association between attention bias and BI before adolescence. The current study examined the interrelations among BI, attention biases to threat, and social withdrawal already manifest in early childhood. Children (N=187, 83 Male, M (age)=61.96 months) were characterized for BI in toddlerhood (24 & 36 months). At 5 years, they completed an attention bias task and concurrent social withdrawal was measured. As expected, BI in toddlerhood predicted high levels of social withdrawal in early childhood. However, this relation was moderated by attention bias. The BI-withdrawal association was only evident for children who displayed an attention bias toward threat. The data provide further support for models associating attention with socioemotional development and the later emergence of clinical anxiety.

Mitochondrial DNA as a non-invasive biomarker: Accurate quantification using real time quantitative PCR without co-amplification of pseudogenes and dilution bias

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malik, Afshan N., E-mail: afshan.malik@kcl.ac.uk; Shahni, Rojeen; Rodriguez-de-Ledesma, Ana

2011-08-19

Highlights: {yields} Mitochondrial dysfunction is central to many diseases of oxidative stress. {yields} 95% of the mitochondrial genome is duplicated in the nuclear genome. {yields} Dilution of untreated genomic DNA leads to dilution bias. {yields} Unique primers and template pretreatment are needed to accurately measure mitochondrial DNA content. -- Abstract: Circulating mitochondrial DNA (MtDNA) is a potential non-invasive biomarker of cellular mitochondrial dysfunction, the latter known to be central to a wide range of human diseases. Changes in MtDNA are usually determined by quantification of MtDNA relative to nuclear DNA (Mt/N) using real time quantitative PCR. We propose that themore » methodology for measuring Mt/N needs to be improved and we have identified that current methods have at least one of the following three problems: (1) As much of the mitochondrial genome is duplicated in the nuclear genome, many commonly used MtDNA primers co-amplify homologous pseudogenes found in the nuclear genome; (2) use of regions from genes such as {beta}-actin and 18S rRNA which are repetitive and/or highly variable for qPCR of the nuclear genome leads to errors; and (3) the size difference of mitochondrial and nuclear genomes cause a 'dilution bias' when template DNA is diluted. We describe a PCR-based method using unique regions in the human mitochondrial genome not duplicated in the nuclear genome; unique single copy region in the nuclear genome and template treatment to remove dilution bias, to accurately quantify MtDNA from human samples.« less

Individual-level movement bias leads to the formation of higher-order social structure in a mobile group of baboons.

PubMed

Bonnell, Tyler R; Clarke, Parry M; Henzi, S Peter; Barrett, Louise

2017-07-01

In mobile social groups, influence patterns driving group movement can vary between democratic and despotic. The arrival at any single pattern of influence is thought to be underpinned by both environmental factors and group composition. To identify the specific patterns of influence driving travel decision-making in a chacma baboon troop, we used spatially explicit data to extract patterns of individual movement bias. We scaled these estimates of individual-level bias to the level of the group by constructing an influence network and assessing its emergent structural properties. Our results indicate that there is heterogeneity in movement bias: individual animals respond consistently to particular group members, and higher-ranking animals are more likely to influence the movement of others. This heterogeneity resulted in a group-level network structure that consisted of a single core and two outer shells. Here, the presence of a core suggests that a set of highly interdependent animals drove routine group movements. These results suggest that heterogeneity at the individual level can lead to group-level influence structures, and that movement patterns in mobile social groups can add to the exploration of both how these structures develop (i.e. mechanistic aspects) and what consequences they have for individual- and group-level outcomes (i.e. functional aspects).

Individual-level movement bias leads to the formation of higher-order social structure in a mobile group of baboons

PubMed Central

Clarke, Parry M.; Henzi, S. Peter; Barrett, Louise

2017-01-01

In mobile social groups, influence patterns driving group movement can vary between democratic and despotic. The arrival at any single pattern of influence is thought to be underpinned by both environmental factors and group composition. To identify the specific patterns of influence driving travel decision-making in a chacma baboon troop, we used spatially explicit data to extract patterns of individual movement bias. We scaled these estimates of individual-level bias to the level of the group by constructing an influence network and assessing its emergent structural properties. Our results indicate that there is heterogeneity in movement bias: individual animals respond consistently to particular group members, and higher-ranking animals are more likely to influence the movement of others. This heterogeneity resulted in a group-level network structure that consisted of a single core and two outer shells. Here, the presence of a core suggests that a set of highly interdependent animals drove routine group movements. These results suggest that heterogeneity at the individual level can lead to group-level influence structures, and that movement patterns in mobile social groups can add to the exploration of both how these structures develop (i.e. mechanistic aspects) and what consequences they have for individual- and group-level outcomes (i.e. functional aspects). PMID:28791140

Estimating the effect of immortal-time bias in urological research: a case example of testosterone-replacement therapy.

PubMed

Wallis, Christopher J D; Saskin, Refik; Narod, Steven A; Law, Calvin; Kulkarni, Girish S; Seth, Arun; Nam, Robert K

2017-10-01

To quantify the effect of immortal-time bias in an observational study examining the effect of cumulative testosterone exposure on mortality. We used a population-based matched cohort study of men aged ≥66 years, newly treated with testosterone-replacement therapy (TRT), and matched-controls from 2007 to 2012 in Ontario, Canada to quantify the effects of immortal-time bias. We used generalised estimating equations to determine the association between cumulative TRT exposure and mortality. Results produced by models using time-fixed and time-varying exposures were compared. Further, we undertook a systematic review of PubMed to identify studies addressing immortal-time bias or time-varying exposures in the urological literature and qualitatively summated these. Among 10 311 TRT-exposed men and 28 029 controls, the use of a time-varying exposure resulted in the attenuation of treatment effects compared with an analysis that did not account for immortal-time bias. While both analyses showed a decreased risk of death for patients in the highest tertile of TRT exposure, the effect was overestimated when using a time-fixed analysis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52-0.61) when compared to a time-varying analysis (aHR 0.67, 95% CI: 0.62-0.73). Of the 1 241 studies employing survival analysis identified in the literature, nine manuscripts met criteria for inclusion. Of these, five used a time-varying analytical method. Each of these was a large, population-based retrospective cohort study assessing potential harms of pharmacological agents. Where exposures vary over time, a time-varying exposure is necessary to draw meaningful conclusions. Failure to use a time-varying analysis will result in overestimation of a beneficial effect. However, time-varying exposures are uncommonly utilised among manuscripts published in prominent urological journals. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley

Interior renovation of a general practitioner office leads to a perceptual bias on patient experience for over one year.

PubMed

Gauthey, Jérôme; Tièche, Raphaël; Streit, Sven

2018-01-01

Measuring patient experience is key when assessing quality of care but can be biased: A perceptual bias occurs when renovations of the interior design of a general practitioner (GP) office improves how patients assessed quality of care. The aim was to assess the length of perceptual bias and if it could be reproduced after a second renovation. A GP office with 2 GPs in Switzerland was renovated twice within 3 years. We assessed patient experience at baseline, 2 months and 14 months after the first and 3 months after the second renovation. Each time, we invited a sample of 180 consecutive patients that anonymously graded patient experience in 4 domains: appearance of the office; qualities of medical assistants and GPs; and general satisfaction. We compared crude mean scores per domain from baseline until follow-up. In a multivariate model, we adjusted for patient's age, gender and for how long patients had been their GP. At baseline, patients aged 60.9 (17.7) years, 52% females. After the first renovation, we found a regression to the baseline level of patient experience after 14 months except for appearance of the office (p<0.001). After the second renovation, patient experience improved again in appearance of the office (p = 0.008), qualities of the GP (p = 0.008), and general satisfaction (p = 0.014). Qualities of the medical assistant showed a slight improvement (p = 0.068). Results were unchanged in the multivariate model. Interior renovation of a GP office probably causes a perceptual bias for >1 year that improves how patients rate quality of care. This bias could be reproduced after a second renovation strengthening a possible causal relationship. These findings imply to appropriately time measurement of patient experience to at least one year after interior renovation of GP practices to avoid environmental changes influences the estimates when measuring patient experience.

Humidity Bias and Effect on Simulated Aerosol Optical Properties during the Ganges Valley Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Yan; Cadeddu, M.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2016-07-10

The radiosonde humidity profiles available during the Ganges Valley Experiment were compared to those simulated from the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a chemistry module (WRF -Chern) and the global reanalysis datasets. Large biases were revealed. On a monthly mean basis at Nainital, located in northern India, the WRFChern model simulates a large moist bias in the free troposphere (up to +20%) as well as a large dry bias in the boundary layer (up to -30%). While the overall pattern of the biases is similar, the magnitude of the biases varies from time to time andmore » from one location to another. At Thiruvananthapuram, the magnitude of the dry bias is smaller, and in contrast to Nainital, the higher-resolution regional WRF -Chern model generates larger moist biases in the upper troposphere than the global reanalysis data. Furthermore, the humidity biases in the upper troposphere, while significant, have little impact on the model estimation of column aerosol optical depth (AOD). The frequent occurrences of the dry boundary-layer bias simulated by the large-scale models tend to lead to the underestimation of AOD. It is thus important to quantify the humidity vertical profiles for aerosol simulations over South Asia.« less

Use of the landmark method to address immortal person-time bias in comparative effectiveness research: a simulation study.

PubMed

Mi, Xiaojuan; Hammill, Bradley G; Curtis, Lesley H; Lai, Edward Chia-Cheng; Setoguchi, Soko

2016-11-20

Observational comparative effectiveness and safety studies are often subject to immortal person-time, a period of follow-up during which outcomes cannot occur because of the treatment definition. Common approaches, like excluding immortal time from the analysis or naïvely including immortal time in the analysis, are known to result in biased estimates of treatment effect. Other approaches, such as the Mantel-Byar and landmark methods, have been proposed to handle immortal time. Little is known about the performance of the landmark method in different scenarios. We conducted extensive Monte Carlo simulations to assess the performance of the landmark method compared with other methods in settings that reflect realistic scenarios. We considered four landmark times for the landmark method. We found that the Mantel-Byar method provided unbiased estimates in all scenarios, whereas the exclusion and naïve methods resulted in substantial bias when the hazard of the event was constant or decreased over time. The landmark method performed well in correcting immortal person-time bias in all scenarios when the treatment effect was small, and provided unbiased estimates when there was no treatment effect. The bias associated with the landmark method tended to be small when the treatment rate was higher in the early follow-up period than it was later. These findings were confirmed in a case study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A review of current evidence for the causal impact of attentional bias on fear and anxiety.

PubMed

Van Bockstaele, Bram; Verschuere, Bruno; Tibboel, Helen; De Houwer, Jan; Crombez, Geert; Koster, Ernst H W

2014-05-01

Prominent cognitive theories postulate that an attentional bias toward threatening information contributes to the etiology, maintenance, or exacerbation of fear and anxiety. In this review, we investigate to what extent these causal claims are supported by sound empirical evidence. Although differences in attentional bias are associated with differences in fear and anxiety, this association does not emerge consistently. Moreover, there is only limited evidence that individual differences in attentional bias are related to individual differences in fear or anxiety. In line with a causal relation, some studies show that attentional bias precedes fear or anxiety in time. However, other studies show that fear and anxiety can precede the onset of attentional bias, suggesting circular or reciprocal causality. Importantly, a recent line of experimental research shows that changes in attentional bias can lead to changes in anxiety. Yet changes in fear and anxiety also lead to changes in attentional bias, which confirms that the relation between attentional bias and fear and anxiety is unlikely to be unidirectional. Finally, a similar causal relation between interpretation bias and anxiety has been documented. In sum, there is evidence in favor of causality, yet a strict unidirectional cause-effect model is unlikely to hold. The relation between attentional bias and fear and anxiety is best described as a bidirectional, maintaining, or mutually reinforcing relation.

Temporal processing deficit leads to impaired multisensory binding in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Zvyagintsev, Mikhail; Parisi, Carmen; Mathiak, Klaus

2017-09-01

Schizophrenia has been characterised by neurodevelopmental dysconnectivity resulting in cognitive and perceptual dysmetria. Hence patients with schizophrenia may be impaired to detect the temporal relationship between stimuli in different sensory modalities. However, only a few studies described deficit in perception of temporally asynchronous multisensory stimuli in schizophrenia. We examined the perceptual bias and the processing time of synchronous and delayed sounds in the streaming-bouncing illusion in 16 patients with schizophrenia and a matched control group of 18 participants. Equal for patients and controls, the synchronous sound biased the percept of two moving squares towards bouncing as opposed to the more frequent streaming percept in the condition without sound. In healthy controls, a delay of the sound presentation significantly reduced the bias and led to prolonged processing time whereas patients with schizophrenia did not differentiate between this condition and the condition with synchronous sound. Schizophrenia leads to a prolonged window of simultaneity for audiovisual stimuli. Therefore, temporal processing deficit in schizophrenia can lead to hyperintegration of temporally unmatched multisensory stimuli.

Immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons.

PubMed

White, Katherine; Van Boven, Leaf

2012-08-01

In seven studies of naturally occurring, "real-world" emotional events, people demonstrated an immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons, perceiving their own current or recent emotional reactions as more intense compared with others' emotional reactions to the same events. The events examined include crossing a scary bridge (study 1a), a national tragedy (study 1b), terrorist attacks (studies 2a and 3b), a natural disaster (study 2b), and a presidential election (study 3b). These perceived differences between one's own and others' emotions declined over time, as relatively immediate and recent emotions subsided, a pattern that people were not intuitively aware of (study 2c). This immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons emerged for both explicit comparisons (studies 1a, 1b, and 3b), and for absolute judgments of emotional intensity (studies 2a, 2b, and 3a). Finally, the immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons was reduced when people were reminded that emotional display norms might lead others' appearances to understate emotional intensity (studies 3a and 3b). Implications of these findings for social-emotional phenomena are discussed.

Dependence of Halo Bias and Kinematics on Assembly Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaoju; Zheng, Zheng

2018-06-01

Using dark matter haloes identified in a large N-body simulation, we study halo assembly bias, with halo formation time, peak maximum circular velocity, concentration, and spin as the assembly variables. Instead of grouping haloes at fixed mass into different percentiles of each assembly variable, we present the joint dependence of halo bias on the values of halo mass and each assembly variable. In the plane of halo mass and one assembly variable, the joint dependence can be largely described as halo bias increasing outward from a global minimum. We find it unlikely to have a combination of halo variables to absorb all assembly bias effects. We then present the joint dependence of halo bias on two assembly variables at fixed halo mass. The gradient of halo bias does not necessarily follow the correlation direction of the two assembly variables and it varies with halo mass. Therefore in general for two correlated assembly variables one cannot be used as a proxy for the other in predicting halo assembly bias trend. Finally, halo assembly is found to affect the kinematics of haloes. Low-mass haloes formed earlier can have much higher pairwise velocity dispersion than those of massive haloes. In general, halo assembly leads to a correlation between halo bias and halo pairwise velocity distribution, with more strongly clustered haloes having higher pairwise velocity and velocity dispersion. However, the correlation is not tight, and the kinematics of haloes at fixed halo bias still depends on halo mass and assembly variables.

Obesity-Induced Metabolic Stress Leads to Biased Effector Memory CD4+ T Cell Differentiation via PI3K p110δ-Akt-Mediated Signals.

PubMed

Mauro, Claudio; Smith, Joanne; Cucchi, Danilo; Coe, David; Fu, Hongmei; Bonacina, Fabrizia; Baragetti, Andrea; Cermenati, Gaia; Caruso, Donatella; Mitro, Nico; Catapano, Alberico L; Ammirati, Enrico; Longhi, Maria P; Okkenhaug, Klaus; Norata, Giuseppe D; Marelli-Berg, Federica M

2017-03-07

Low-grade systemic inflammation associated to obesity leads to cardiovascular complications, caused partly by infiltration of adipose and vascular tissue by effector T cells. The signals leading to T cell differentiation and tissue infiltration during obesity are poorly understood. We tested whether saturated fatty acid-induced metabolic stress affects differentiation and trafficking patterns of CD4 + T cells. Memory CD4 + T cells primed in high-fat diet-fed donors preferentially migrated to non-lymphoid, inflammatory sites, independent of the metabolic status of the hosts. This was due to biased CD4 + T cell differentiation into CD44 hi -CCR7 lo -CD62L lo -CXCR3 + -LFA1 + effector memory-like T cells upon priming in high-fat diet-fed animals. Similar phenotype was observed in obese subjects in a cohort of free-living people. This developmental bias was independent of any crosstalk between CD4 + T cells and dendritic cells and was mediated via direct exposure of CD4 + T cells to palmitate, leading to increased activation of a PI3K p110δ-Akt-dependent pathway upon priming. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adult brains don't fully overcome biases that lead to incorrect performance during cognitive development: an fMRI study in young adults completing a Piaget-like task.

PubMed

Leroux, Gaëlle; Spiess, Jeanne; Zago, Laure; Rossi, Sandrine; Lubin, Amélie; Turbelin, Marie-Renée; Mazoyer, Bernard; Tzourio-Mazoyer, Nathalie; Houdé, Olivier; Joliot, Marc

2009-03-01

A current issue in developmental science is that greater continuity in cognition between children and adults may exist than is usually appreciated in Piaget-like (stages or 'staircase') models. This phenomenon has been demonstrated at the behavioural level, but never at the brain level. Here we show with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), for the first time, that adult brains do not fully overcome the biases of childhood. More specifically, the aim of this fMRI study was to evaluate whether the perceptual bias that leads to incorrect performance during cognitive development in a Piaget-like task is still a bias in the adult brain and hence requires an executive network to overcome it. Here, we compared two numerical-judgment tasks, one being a Piaget-like task with number-length interference (called 'INT') and the other being a control task with number-length covariation ('COV'). We also used a colour-detection task to control for stimuli numerosity, spatial distribution, and frequency. Our behavioural results confirmed that INT remains a difficult task for young adults. Indeed, response times were significantly higher in INT than in COV. Moreover, we observed that only in INT did response times increase linearly as a function of the number of items. The fMRI results indicate that the brain network common to INT and COV shows a large rightward functional asymmetry, emphasizing the visuospatial nature of these two tasks. When INT was compared with COV, activations were found within a right frontal network, including the pre-supplementary motor area, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the middle frontal gyrus, which probably reflect detection of the number/length conflict and inhibition of the 'length-equals-number' response strategy. Finally, activations related to visuospatial and quantitative processing, enhanced or specifically recruited in the Piaget-like task, were found in bilateral posterior areas.

Steady-state and quench-dependent relaxation of a quantum dot coupled to one-dimensional leads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuss, Martin; Ganahl, Martin; Evertz, Hans Gerd; Arrigoni, Enrico; von der Linden, Wolfgang

2013-07-01

We study the time evolution and steady state of the charge current in a single-impurity Anderson model, using matrix product states techniques. A nonequilibrium situation is imposed by applying a bias voltage across one-dimensional tight-binding leads. Focusing on particle-hole symmetry, we extract current-voltage characteristics from universal low-bias up to high-bias regimes, where band effects start to play a dominant role. We discuss three quenches, which after strongly quench-dependent transients yield the same steady-state current. Among these quenches we identify those favorable for extracting steady-state observables. The period of short-time oscillations is shown to compare well to real-time renormalization group results for a simpler model of spinless fermions. We find indications that many-body effects play an important role at high-bias voltage and finite bandwidth of the metallic leads. The growth of entanglement entropy after a certain time scale ∝Δ-1 is the major limiting factor for calculating the time evolution. We show that the magnitude of the steady-state current positively correlates with entanglement entropy. The role of high-energy states for the steady-state current is explored by considering a damping term in the time evolution.

A Flight-Calibrated Methodology for Determination of Cassini Thruster On-Times for Reaction Wheel Biases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarani, Siamak

2010-01-01

This paper describes a methodology for accurate and flight-calibrated determination of the on-times of the Cassini spacecraft Reaction Control System (RCS) thrusters, without any form of dynamic simulation, for the reaction wheel biases. The hydrazine usage and the delta V vector in body frame are also computed from the respective thruster on-times. The Cassini spacecraft, the largest and most complex interplanetary spacecraft ever built, continues to undertake ambitious and unique scientific observations of planet Saturn, Titan, Enceladus, and other moons of Saturn. In order to maintain a stable attitude during the course of its mission, this three-axis stabilized spacecraft uses two different control systems: the RCS and the reaction wheel assembly control system. The RCS is used to execute a commanded spacecraft slew, to maintain three-axis attitude control, control spacecraft's attitude while performing science observations with coarse pointing requirements, e.g. during targeted low-altitude Titan and Enceladus flybys, bias the momentum of reaction wheels, and to perform RCS-based orbit trim maneuvers. The use of RCS often imparts undesired delta V on the spacecraft. The Cassini navigation team requires accurate predictions of the delta V in spacecraft coordinates and inertial frame resulting from slews using RCS thrusters and more importantly from reaction wheel bias events. It is crucial for the Cassini spacecraft attitude control and navigation teams to be able to, quickly but accurately, predict the hydrazine usage and delta V for various reaction wheel bias events without actually having to spend time and resources simulating the event in flight software-based dynamic simulation or hardware-in-the-loop simulation environments. The methodology described in this paper, and the ground software developed thereof, are designed to provide just that. This methodology assumes a priori knowledge of thrust magnitudes and thruster pulse rise and tail-off time

Interior renovation of a general practitioner office leads to a perceptual bias on patient experience for over one year

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Introduction Measuring patient experience is key when assessing quality of care but can be biased: A perceptual bias occurs when renovations of the interior design of a general practitioner (GP) office improves how patients assessed quality of care. The aim was to assess the length of perceptual bias and if it could be reproduced after a second renovation. Methods A GP office with 2 GPs in Switzerland was renovated twice within 3 years. We assessed patient experience at baseline, 2 months and 14 months after the first and 3 months after the second renovation. Each time, we invited a sample of 180 consecutive patients that anonymously graded patient experience in 4 domains: appearance of the office; qualities of medical assistants and GPs; and general satisfaction. We compared crude mean scores per domain from baseline until follow-up. In a multivariate model, we adjusted for patient’s age, gender and for how long patients had been their GP. Results At baseline, patients aged 60.9 (17.7) years, 52% females. After the first renovation, we found a regression to the baseline level of patient experience after 14 months except for appearance of the office (p<0.001). After the second renovation, patient experience improved again in appearance of the office (p = 0.008), qualities of the GP (p = 0.008), and general satisfaction (p = 0.014). Qualities of the medical assistant showed a slight improvement (p = 0.068). Results were unchanged in the multivariate model. Conclusions Interior renovation of a GP office probably causes a perceptual bias for >1 year that improves how patients rate quality of care. This bias could be reproduced after a second renovation strengthening a possible causal relationship. These findings imply to appropriately time measurement of patient experience to at least one year after interior renovation of GP practices to avoid environmental changes influences the estimates when measuring patient experience. PMID:29462196

Self-biased broadband magnet-free linear isolator based on one-way space-time coherency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taravati, Sajjad

2017-12-01

This paper introduces a self-biased broadband magnet-free and linear isolator based on one-way space-time coherency. The incident wave and the space-time-modulated medium share the same temporal frequency and are hence temporally coherent. However, thanks to the unidirectionally of the space-time modulation, the space-time-modulated medium and the incident wave are spatially coherent only in the forward direction and not in the opposite direction. As a consequence, the energy of the medium strongly couples to the propagating wave in the forward direction, while it conflicts with the propagating wave in the opposite direction, yielding strong isolation. We first derive a closed-form solution for the wave scattering from a spatiotemporally coherent medium and then show that a perfectly coherent space-time-modulated medium provides a moderate isolation level which is also subject to one-way transmission gain. To overcome this issue, we next investigate the effect of space-coherency imperfection between the medium and the wave, while they are still perfectly temporally coherent. Leveraging the spatial-coherency imperfection, the medium exhibits a quasiarbitrary and strong nonreciprocal transmission. Finally, we present the experimental demonstration of the self-biased version of the proposed broadband isolator, exhibiting more than 122 % fractional operation bandwidth.

Quality of Reporting Randomized Controlled Trials in Five Leading Neurology Journals in 2008 and 2013 Using the Modified "Risk of Bias" Tool.

PubMed

Zhai, Xiao; Cui, Jin; Wang, Yiran; Qu, Zhiquan; Mu, Qingchun; Li, Peiwen; Zhang, Chaochao; Yang, Mingyuan; Chen, Xiao; Chen, Ziqiang; Li, Ming

2017-03-01

To examine the risk of bias of methodological quality of reporting randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in major neurology journals before and after the update (2011) of Cochrane risk of bias tool. RCTs in 5 leading neurology journals in 2008 and 2013 were searched systematically. Characteristics were extracted based on the list of the modified Cochrane Collaboration's tool. Country, number of patients, type of intervention, and funding source also were examined for further analysis. A total of 138 RCTs were enrolled in this study. The rates of following a trial plan were 61.6% for the allocation generation, 52.9% for the allocation concealment, 84.8% for the blinding of the participants or the personnel, 34.8% for the blinding of outcome assessment, 78.3% for the incomplete outcome data, and 67.4% for the selective reporting. A significant setback was found in "the selective reporting" in 2013 than that in 2008. Trials performed by multi-centers and on a large scale had significantly more "low risk of bias" trials. Not only the number of surgical trials (5.8%) was much less than that of trials using drugs (73.9%), but also the reporting quality of surgical trials were worse (P = 0.008). Finally, only 17.4% trials met the criterion of "low risk of bias." The modified "risk of bias" tool is an improved version for assessment. Methodological quality of reporting RCTs in the 5neurology journals is unsatisfactory, especially that for surgical RCTs, and it could be further improved. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Specifying a target trial prevents immortal time bias and other self-inflicted injuries in observational analyses

PubMed Central

Hernán, Miguel A.; Sauer, Brian C.; Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; Platt, Robert; Shrier, Ian

2016-01-01

Many analyses of observational data are attempts to emulate a target trial. The emulation of the target trial may fail when researchers deviate from simple principles that guide the design and analysis of randomized experiments. We review a framework to describe and prevent biases, including immortal time bias, that result from a failure to align start of follow-up, specification of eligibility, and treatment assignment. We review some analytic approaches to avoid these problems in comparative effectiveness or safety research. PMID:27237061

Radial Bias Is Not Necessary For Orientation Decoding

PubMed Central

Pratte, Michael S.; Sy, Jocelyn L.; Swisher, Jascha D.; Tong, Frank

2015-01-01

Multivariate pattern analysis can be used to decode the orientation of a viewed grating from fMRI signals in early visual areas. Although some studies have reported identifying multiple sources of the orientation information that make decoding possible, a recent study argued that orientation decoding is only possible because of a single source: a coarse-scale retinotopically organized preference for radial orientations. Here we aim to resolve these discrepant findings. We show that there were subtle, but critical, experimental design choices that led to the erroneous conclusion that a radial bias is the only source of orientation information in fMRI signals. In particular, we show that the reliance on a fast temporal-encoding paradigm for spatial mapping can be problematic, as effects of space and time become conflated and lead to distorted estimates of a voxel’s orientation or retinotopic preference. When we implement minor changes to the temporal paradigm or to the visual stimulus itself, by slowing the periodic rotation of the stimulus or by smoothing its contrast-energy profile, we find significant evidence of orientation information that does not originate from radial bias. In an additional block-paradigm experiment where space and time were not conflated, we apply a formal model comparison approach and find that many voxels exhibit more complex tuning properties than predicted by radial bias alone or in combination with other known coarse-scale biases. Our findings support the conclusion that radial bias is not necessary for orientation decoding. In addition, our study highlights potential limitations of using temporal phase-encoded fMRI designs for characterizing voxel tuning properties. PMID:26666900

Are attentional bias and memory bias for negative words causally related?

PubMed

Blaut, Agata; Paulewicz, Borysław; Szastok, Marta; Prochwicz, Katarzyna; Koster, Ernst

2013-09-01

In cognitive theories of depression, processing biases are assumed to be partly responsible for the onset and maintenance of mood disorders. Despite a wealth of studies examining the relation between depression and individual biases (at the level of attention, interpretation, and memory), little is known about relationships between different biases. The purpose of the present study was to assess if attentional bias is causally related to memory bias. 71 participants were randomly assigned to a control (n = 37) or attentional training group (n = 34). The attentional manipulation was followed by an explicit, intentional memory task during which novel neutral, negative, and positive words were presented. It was found that individuals with elevated depression score trained to orient away from negative words did not display a memory bias for negative words (adjectives) whereas similar individuals displayed this memory bias in the control condition. Generalization of the findings is limited because of the short study time frame and specific nature of the memory task. These results indicate that altering attentional bias can influence elaborative processing of emotional material and that this bias could be one of the causes of mood congruent memory in depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of Angular-Momentum Biases of Reaction Wheels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Clifford; Lee, Allan

2008-01-01

RBOT [RWA Bias Optimization Tool (wherein RWA signifies Reaction Wheel Assembly )] is a computer program designed for computing angular momentum biases for reaction wheels used for providing spacecraft pointing in various directions as required for scientific observations. RBOT is currently deployed to support the Cassini mission to prevent operation of reaction wheels at unsafely high speeds while minimizing time in undesirable low-speed range, where elasto-hydrodynamic lubrication films in bearings become ineffective, leading to premature bearing failure. The problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem in which maximum wheel speed limit is a hard constraint and a cost functional that increases as speed decreases below a low-speed threshold. The optimization problem is solved using a parametric search routine known as the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm. To increase computational efficiency for extended operation involving large quantity of data, the algorithm is designed to (1) use large time increments during intervals when spacecraft attitudes or rates of rotation are nearly stationary, (2) use sinusoidal-approximation sampling to model repeated long periods of Earth-point rolling maneuvers to reduce computational loads, and (3) utilize an efficient equation to obtain wheel-rate profiles as functions of initial wheel biases based on conservation of angular momentum (in an inertial frame) using pre-computed terms.

Sequential biases in accumulating evidence

PubMed Central

Huggins, Richard; Dogo, Samson Henry

2015-01-01

Whilst it is common in clinical trials to use the results of tests at one phase to decide whether to continue to the next phase and to subsequently design the next phase, we show that this can lead to biased results in evidence synthesis. Two new kinds of bias associated with accumulating evidence, termed ‘sequential decision bias’ and ‘sequential design bias’, are identified. Both kinds of bias are the result of making decisions on the usefulness of a new study, or its design, based on the previous studies. Sequential decision bias is determined by the correlation between the value of the current estimated effect and the probability of conducting an additional study. Sequential design bias arises from using the estimated value instead of the clinically relevant value of an effect in sample size calculations. We considered both the fixed‐effect and the random‐effects models of meta‐analysis and demonstrated analytically and by simulations that in both settings the problems due to sequential biases are apparent. According to our simulations, the sequential biases increase with increased heterogeneity. Minimisation of sequential biases arises as a new and important research area necessary for successful evidence‐based approaches to the development of science. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26626562

A Flight-Calibrated Methodology for Determination of Cassini Thruster On-Times for Reaction Wheel Biases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarani, Sam

2010-01-01

The Cassini spacecraft, the largest and most complex interplanetary spacecraft ever built, continues to undertake unique scientific observations of planet Saturn, Titan, Enceladus, and other moons of the ring world. In order to maintain a stable attitude during the course of its mission, this three-axis stabilized spacecraft uses two different control systems: the Reaction Control System (or RCS) and the Reaction Wheel Assembly (RWA) control system. In the course of its mission, Cassini performs numerous reaction wheel momentum biases (or unloads) using its reaction control thrusters. The use of the RCS thrusters often imparts undesired velocity changes (delta Vs) on the spacecraft and it is crucial for Cassini navigation and attitude control teams to be able to, quickly but accurately, predict the hydrazine usage and delta V vector in Earth Mean Equatorial (J2000) inertial coordinates for reaction wheel bias events, without actually having to spend time and resources simulating the event in a dynamic or hardware-in-the-loop simulation environments. The flight-calibrated methodology described in this paper, and the ground software developed thereof, are designed to provide the RCS thruster on-times, with acceptable accuracy and without any form of dynamic simulation, for reaction wheel biases, along with the hydrazine usage and the delta V in EME-2000 inertial frame.

Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases: how noisy information processing can bias human decision making.

PubMed

Hilbert, Martin

2012-03-01

A single coherent framework is proposed to synthesize long-standing research on 8 seemingly unrelated cognitive decision-making biases. During the past 6 decades, hundreds of empirical studies have resulted in a variety of rules of thumb that specify how humans systematically deviate from what is normatively expected from their decisions. Several complementary generative mechanisms have been proposed to explain those cognitive biases. Here it is suggested that (at least) 8 of these empirically detected decision-making biases can be produced by simply assuming noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions). An integrative framework is presented to show how similar noise-based mechanisms can lead to conservatism, the Bayesian likelihood bias, illusory correlations, biased self-other placement, subadditivity, exaggerated expectation, the confidence bias, and the hard-easy effect. Analytical tools from information theory are used to explore the nature and limitations that characterize such information processes for binary and multiary decision-making exercises. The ensuing synthesis offers formal mathematical definitions of the biases and their underlying generative mechanism, which permits a consolidated analysis of how they are related. This synthesis contributes to the larger goal of creating a coherent picture that explains the relations among the myriad of seemingly unrelated biases and their potential psychological generative mechanisms. Limitations and research questions are discussed.

Adaptively biased molecular dynamics: An umbrella sampling method with a time-dependent potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babin, Volodymyr; Karpusenka, Vadzim; Moradi, Mahmoud; Roland, Christopher; Sagui, Celeste

We discuss an adaptively biased molecular dynamics (ABMD) method for the computation of a free energy surface for a set of reaction coordinates. The ABMD method belongs to the general category of umbrella sampling methods with an evolving biasing potential. It is characterized by a small number of control parameters and an O(t) numerical cost with simulation time t. The method naturally allows for extensions based on multiple walkers and replica exchange mechanism. The workings of the method are illustrated with a number of examples, including sugar puckering, and free energy landscapes for polymethionine and polyproline peptides, and for a short β-turn peptide. ABMD has been implemented into the latest version (Case et al., AMBER 10; University of California: San Francisco, 2008) of the AMBER software package and is freely available to the simulation community.

Detecting Gender Bias Through Test Item Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Espada, Wilson J.

2009-03-01

Many physical science and physics instructors might not be trained in pedagogically appropriate test construction methods. This could lead to test items that do not measure what they are intended to measure. A subgroup of these items might show bias against some groups of students. This paper describes how the author became aware of potentially biased items against females in his examinations, which led to the exploration of fundamental issues related to item validity, gender bias, and differential item functioning, or DIF. A brief discussion of DIF in the context of university courses, as well as practical suggestions to detect possible gender-biased items, follows.

Do the early attentional components of ERPs reflect attentional bias in depression? It depends on the stimulus presentation time.

PubMed

Mingtian, Zhong; Xiongzhao, Zhu; Jinyao, Yi; Shuqiao, Yao; Atchley, Ruth Ann

2011-07-01

The study aimed to utilize behavioral and electrophysiological data to investigate whether depressed patients show an attentional bias in a task that allows for explicit insight into the time course of selective attention processes. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were collected from 24 patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and 25 never-depressed individuals (ND) during a dot-probe task, using pairs of affectively valenced pictures as cues. Cue presentation time was either 100 ms or 500 ms. When the cue presentation time was 500 ms, bias scores for positive-neutral picture pairs (POS-NEU) were negative for the MDD group and positive for the ND group which means ND individuals were able to successfully select positive information. These behavioral effects were supported by ERP results. In the ND group, at the right parietal-occipital region, P1 amplitude during valid POS-NEU pairs was significantly larger than that during invalid POS-NEU pairs; this pattern did not appear in the MDD group. These results suggest that MDD patients are characterized by a deficit in protection bias, meaning that these participants cannot avoid attending to negative information in their environment, but only when negative stimuli are presented for a sufficient period of time. Attentional bias is modulated by duration of emotional pictures presentation in depression. Copyright © 2010 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health anxiety and attentional bias: the time course of vigilance and avoidance in light of pictorial illness information.

PubMed

Jasper, Fabian; Witthöft, Michael

2011-12-01

Cognitive-behavioral models of health anxiety stress the importance of selective attention not only towards internal but also towards external health threat related stimuli. Yet, little is known about the time course of this attentional bias. The current study investigates threat related attentional bias in participants with varying degrees of health anxiety. Attentional bias was assessed using a visual dot-probe task with health-threat and neutral pictures at two exposure durations, 175ms and 500ms. A baseline condition was added to the dot-probe task to dissociate indices of vigilance towards threat and difficulties to disengage from threat. Substantial positive correlations of health anxiety, anxiety sensitivity, and absorption with difficulties to disengage from threat were detected at 500ms exposure time. At an early stage (i.e., at 175ms exposure time), we found significant positive correlations of health anxiety and absorption with orientation towards threat. Results suggest a vigilance avoidance pattern of selective attention associated with pictorial illness related stimuli in health anxiety. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Specifying a target trial prevents immortal time bias and other self-inflicted injuries in observational analyses.

PubMed

Hernán, Miguel A; Sauer, Brian C; Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; Platt, Robert; Shrier, Ian

2016-11-01

Many analyses of observational data are attempts to emulate a target trial. The emulation of the target trial may fail when researchers deviate from simple principles that guide the design and analysis of randomized experiments. We review a framework to describe and prevent biases, including immortal time bias, that result from a failure to align start of follow-up, specification of eligibility, and treatment assignment. We review some analytic approaches to avoid these problems in comparative effectiveness or safety research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time-Lag Bias in Trials of Pediatric Antidepressants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reyes, Magdalena M.; Panza, Kaitlyn E.; Martin, Andres; Bloch, Michael H.

2011-01-01

Objective: To determine whether there is evidence of a time-lag bias in the publication of pediatric antidepressant trials. Method: We conducted a meta-analysis of published and unpublished randomized placebo-controlled trials of serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) in subjects less than 18 years of age with major depressive disorder. Our main…

Opportunistic biases: Their origins, effects, and an integrated solution.

PubMed

DeCoster, Jamie; Sparks, Erin A; Sparks, Jordan C; Sparks, Glenn G; Sparks, Cheri W

2015-09-01

Researchers commonly explore their data in multiple ways before deciding which analyses they will include in the final versions of their papers. While this improves the chances of researchers finding publishable results, it introduces an "opportunistic bias," such that the reported relations are stronger or otherwise more supportive of the researcher's theories than they would be without the exploratory process. The magnitudes of opportunistic biases can often be stronger than those of the effects being investigated, leading to invalid conclusions and a lack of clarity in research results. Authors typically do not report their exploratory procedures, so opportunistic biases are very difficult to detect just by reading the final version of a research report. In this article, we explain how a number of accepted research practices can lead to opportunistic biases, discuss the prevalence of these practices in psychology, consider the different effects that opportunistic biases have on psychological science, evaluate the strategies that methodologists have proposed to prevent or correct for the effects of these biases, and introduce an integrated solution to reduce the prevalence and influence of opportunistic biases. The recent prominence of articles discussing questionable research practices both in scientific journals and in the public media underscores the importance of understanding how opportunistic biases are created and how we might undo their effects. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

PubMed

Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-07-20

This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

Bias against research on gender bias.

PubMed

Cislak, Aleksandra; Formanowicz, Magdalena; Saguy, Tamar

2018-01-01

The bias against women in academia is a documented phenomenon that has had detrimental consequences, not only for women, but also for the quality of science. First, gender bias in academia affects female scientists, resulting in their underrepresentation in academic institutions, particularly in higher ranks. The second type of gender bias in science relates to some findings applying only to male participants, which produces biased knowledge. Here, we identify a third potentially powerful source of gender bias in academia: the bias against research on gender bias. In a bibliometric investigation covering a broad range of social sciences, we analyzed published articles on gender bias and race bias and established that articles on gender bias are funded less often and published in journals with a lower Impact Factor than articles on comparable instances of social discrimination. This result suggests the possibility of an underappreciation of the phenomenon of gender bias and related research within the academic community. Addressing this meta-bias is crucial for the further examination of gender inequality, which severely affects many women across the world.

Sex bias in paediatric autoimmune disease - Not just about sex hormones?

PubMed

Chiaroni-Clarke, Rachel C; Munro, Jane E; Ellis, Justine A

2016-05-01

Autoimmune diseases affect up to 10% of the world's population, and approximately 80% of those affected are female. The majority of autoimmune diseases occur more commonly in females, although some are more frequent in males, while others show no bias by sex. The mechanisms leading to sex biased disease prevalence are not well understood. However, for adult-onset autoimmune disease, at least some of the cause is usually ascribed to sex hormones. This is because levels of sex hormones are one of the most obvious physiological differences between adult males and females, and their impact on immune system function is well recognised. While for paediatric-onset autoimmune diseases a sex bias is not as common, there are several such diseases for which one sex predominates. For example, the oligoarticular subtype of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) occurs in approximately three times more girls than boys, with a peak age of onset well before the onset of puberty, and at a time when levels of androgen and oestrogen are low and not strikingly different between the sexes. Here, we review potential explanations for autoimmune disease sex bias with a particular focus on paediatric autoimmune disease, and biological mechanisms outside of sex hormone differences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thinking in Black and White: Conscious thought increases racially biased judgments through biased face memory.

PubMed

Strick, Madelijn; Stoeckart, Peter F; Dijksterhuis, Ap

2015-11-01

It is a common research finding that conscious thought helps people to avoid racial discrimination. These three experiments, however, illustrate that conscious thought may increase biased face memory, which leads to increased judgment bias (i.e., preferring White to Black individuals). In Experiments 1 and 2, university students formed impressions of Black and White housemate candidates. They judged the candidates either immediately (immediate decision condition), thought about their judgments for a few minutes (conscious thought condition), or performed an unrelated task for a few minutes (unconscious thought condition). Conscious thinkers and immediate decision-makers showed a stronger face memory bias than unconscious thinkers, and this mediated increased judgment bias, although not all results were significant. Experiment 3 used a new, different paradigm and showed that a Black male was remembered as darker after a period of conscious thought than after a period of unconscious thought. Implications for racial prejudice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnosing Crime and Diagnosing Disease: Bias Reduction Strategies in the Forensic and Clinical Sciences.

PubMed

Lockhart, Joseph J; Satya-Murti, Saty

2017-11-01

Cognitive effort is an essential part of both forensic and clinical decision-making. Errors occur in both fields because the cognitive process is complex and prone to bias. We performed a selective review of full-text English language literature on cognitive bias leading to diagnostic and forensic errors. Earlier work (1970-2000) concentrated on classifying and raising bias awareness. Recently (2000-2016), the emphasis has shifted toward strategies for "debiasing." While the forensic sciences have focused on the control of misleading contextual cues, clinical debiasing efforts have relied on checklists and hypothetical scenarios. No single generally applicable and effective bias reduction strategy has emerged so far. Generalized attempts at bias elimination have not been particularly successful. It is time to shift focus to the study of errors within specific domains, and how to best communicate uncertainty in order to improve decision making on the part of both the expert and the trier-of-fact. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Attentional bias between modalities: effect on the internal clock, memory, and decision stages used in animal time discrimination.

PubMed

Meck, W H

1984-01-01

Both the presentation of unbalanced stimulus probabilities and the insertion of a predictive cue prior to the signal on each trial apparently induces a strong bias to use a particular stimulus modality in order to select a temporal criterion and response rule. This attentional bias toward one modality is apparently independent of the modality of the stimulus being timed and is strongly influenced by stimulus probabilities or prior warning cues. These techniques may be useful to control trial-by-trial sequential effects that influence a subject's perceptual and response biases when signals from more than one modality are used in duration discrimination tasks. Cross-procedural generality of the effects of attentional bias was observed. An asymmetrical modality effect on the latency to begin timing was observed with both the temporal bisection and the peak procedure. The latency to begin timing light signals, but not the latency to begin timing sound signals, was increased when the signal modality was unexpected. This asymmetrical effect was explained with the assumption that sound signals close the mode switch automatically, but that light signals close the mode switch only if attention is directed to the light. The time required to switch attention is reflected in a reduction of the number of pulses from the pacemaker that enter the accumulator. One positive aspect of this work is the demonstration that procedures similar to those used to study human cognition can be used with animal subjects with similar results. Perhaps these similarities will stimulate animal research on the physiological basis of various cognitive capacities. Animal subjects would be preferred for such physiological experimentation if it were established that they possessed some of the cognitive processes described by investigators of human information processing. One of the negative aspects of this work is that only one combination of modalities was used and variables such as stimulus intensity

Time to End the Bias towards Inclusive Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Runswick-Cole, Katherine

2011-01-01

The UK coalition Government's call to end the "bias" towards inclusion represents a shift in "policy speak" as the new administration attempts to re-narrate special education by putting forward a "reasonable and sensible" solution to the "problem of inclusion". However, implicit in the call is the assumption…

Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

PubMed

Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

2016-06-21

When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics.

Cosmology of biased discrete symmetry breaking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelmini, Graciela B.; Gleiser, Marcelo; Kolb, Edward W.

1988-01-01

The cosmological consequences of spontaneous breaking of an approximate discrete symmetry are studied. The breaking leads to formation of proto-domains of false and true vacuum separated by domain walls of thickness determined by the mass scale of the model. The cosmological evolution of the walls is extremely sensitive to the magnitude of the biasing; several scenarios are possible, depending on the interplay between the surface tension on the walls and the volume pressure from the biasing. Walls may disappear almost immediately after they form, or may live long enough to dominate the energy density of the Universe and cause power-law inflation. Limits are obtained on the biasing that characterizes each possible scenario.

Social biases modulate the loss of redundant forms in the cultural evolution of language.

PubMed

Roberts, Gareth; Fedzechkina, Maryia

2018-02-01

According to the competitive exclusion principle (Gause, 1934), competition for the same niche must eventually lead one competitor to extinction or the occupation of a new niche. This principle applies in both biology and the cultural evolution of language, where different words and structures compete for the same function or meaning (Aronoff, 2016). Across languages, for example, word order trades off with case marking as a means of indicating who did what to whom in a sentence. Previous experimental work has shed light on how such trade-offs come about as languages adapt to human biases through learning and production, with biases becoming amplified through iterated learning over generations. At the same time, a large body of work has documented the impact of social biases on language change. However, little work has investigated how social biases interact with learning and production biases. In particular, the social dimension of language may provide alternative niches for otherwise redundant forms, preventing or slowing their extinction. We tested this hypothesis in an iterated-learning experiment in which participants were exposed to a language with two dialects, both of which had fixed word order, but differed in whether they employed case markers. In one condition, we biased participants socially towards speakers of the dialect that employed case; in other conditions we provided no bias, or biased participants for or against the dialect without case. As expected under our hypothesis, the use of case markers declined over time in all conditions, but the social bias in favor of case-dialect speakers slowed the decline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the

Bias correction of satellite-based rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-04-01

Limitation in hydro-meteorological data availability in many catchments limits the possibility of reliable hydrological analyses especially for near-real-time predictions. However, the variety of satellite based and meteorological model products for rainfall provides new opportunities. Often times the accuracy of these rainfall products, when compared to rain gauge measurements, is not impressive. The systematic differences of these rainfall products from gauge observations can be partially compensated by adopting a bias (error) correction. Many of such methods correct the satellite based rainfall data by comparing their mean value to the mean value of rain gauge data. Refined approaches may also first find out a suitable time scale at which different data products are better comparable and then employ a bias correction at that time scale. More elegant methods use quantile-to-quantile bias correction, which however, assumes that the available (often limited) sample size can be useful in comparing probabilities of different rainfall products. Analysis of rainfall data and understanding of the process of its generation reveals that the bias in different rainfall data varies in space and time. The time aspect is sometimes taken into account by considering the seasonality. In this research we have adopted a bias correction approach that takes into account the variation of rainfall in space and time. A clustering based approach is employed in which every new data point (e.g. of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)) is first assigned to a specific cluster of that data product and then, by identifying the corresponding cluster of gauge data, the bias correction specific to that cluster is adopted. The presented approach considers the space-time variation of rainfall and as a result the corrected data is more realistic. Keywords: bias correction, rainfall, TRMM, satellite rainfall

Bias in reporting of randomised clinical trials in oncology.

PubMed

Vera-Badillo, Francisco E; Napoleone, Marc; Krzyzanowska, Monika K; Alibhai, Shabbir M H; Chan, An-Wen; Ocana, Alberto; Seruga, Bostjan; Templeton, Arnoud J; Amir, Eitan; Tannock, Ian F

2016-07-01

Bias in reporting efficacy and toxicity in clinical trials may impact treatment decisions. Here, we report quality of reporting of efficacy and of toxicity in articles describing randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of cancer therapy and the association between biased reporting and study results, funding and financial relationships of the authors with the sponsor. We reviewed articles published from July 2010 to December 2012 in six high-impact journals reporting RCTs of systemic treatment for cancer. Bias in reporting of the primary end-point and toxicity were assessed. Associations between biased reporting and study results, funding source and financial ties of the author with the funding source were evaluated using logistic regression. Two hundred articles were identified. Among 107 RCTs where there was no statistically significant difference in the primary end-point between the two arms, 50 (47%) reports used biased reporting in the abstract of the paper to imply benefit of the experimental treatment. Toxicity was not reported in the abstract in 18.5% of the studies and this was associated with a positive primary end-point. Source of funding and financial ties were not associated with biased reporting. Bias in reporting of efficacy outcomes is common for studies with a negative primary end-point and can lead to off-label misuse of experimental therapies, if they are approved for other indications. Toxicity is under-reported, especially for studies with a positive primary end-point, leading to a biased view of the safety of new treatments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-variant Lagrangian transport formulation reduces aggregation bias of water and solute mean travel time in heterogeneous catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danesh-Yazdi, Mohammad; Botter, Gianluca; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

2017-05-01

Lack of hydro-bio-chemical data at subcatchment scales necessitates adopting an aggregated system approach for estimating water and solute transport properties, such as residence and travel time distributions, at the catchment scale. In this work, we show that within-catchment spatial heterogeneity, as expressed in spatially variable discharge-storage relationships, can be appropriately encapsulated within a lumped time-varying stochastic Lagrangian formulation of transport. This time (variability) for space (heterogeneity) substitution yields mean travel times (MTTs) that are not significantly biased to the aggregation of spatial heterogeneity. Despite the significant variability of MTT at small spatial scales, there exists a characteristic scale above which the MTT is not impacted by the aggregation of spatial heterogeneity. Extensive simulations of randomly generated river networks reveal that the ratio between the characteristic scale and the mean incremental area is on average independent of river network topology and the spatial arrangement of incremental areas.

Analysis and correction of gradient nonlinearity bias in ADC measurements

PubMed Central

Malyarenko, Dariya I.; Ross, Brian D.; Chenevert, Thomas L.

2013-01-01

Purpose Gradient nonlinearity of MRI systems leads to spatially-dependent b-values and consequently high non-uniformity errors (10–20%) in ADC measurements over clinically relevant field-of-views. This work seeks practical correction procedure that effectively reduces observed ADC bias for media of arbitrary anisotropy in the fewest measurements. Methods All-inclusive bias analysis considers spatial and time-domain cross-terms for diffusion and imaging gradients. The proposed correction is based on rotation of the gradient nonlinearity tensor into the diffusion gradient frame where spatial bias of b-matrix can be approximated by its Euclidean norm. Correction efficiency of the proposed procedure is numerically evaluated for a range of model diffusion tensor anisotropies and orientations. Results Spatial dependence of nonlinearity correction terms accounts for the bulk (75–95%) of ADC bias for FA = 0.3–0.9. Residual ADC non-uniformity errors are amplified for anisotropic diffusion. This approximation obviates need for full diffusion tensor measurement and diagonalization to derive a corrected ADC. Practical scenarios are outlined for implementation of the correction on clinical MRI systems. Conclusions The proposed simplified correction algorithm appears sufficient to control ADC non-uniformity errors in clinical studies using three orthogonal diffusion measurements. The most efficient reduction of ADC bias for anisotropic medium is achieved with non-lab-based diffusion gradients. PMID:23794533

Odors Bias Time Perception in Visual and Auditory Modalities

PubMed Central

Yue, Zhenzhu; Gao, Tianyu; Chen, Lihan; Wu, Jiashuang

2016-01-01

Previous studies have shown that emotional states alter our perception of time. However, attention, which is modulated by a number of factors, such as emotional events, also influences time perception. To exclude potential attentional effects associated with emotional events, various types of odors (inducing different levels of emotional arousal) were used to explore whether olfactory events modulated time perception differently in visual and auditory modalities. Participants were shown either a visual dot or heard a continuous tone for 1000 or 4000 ms while they were exposed to odors of jasmine, lavender, or garlic. Participants then reproduced the temporal durations of the preceding visual or auditory stimuli by pressing the spacebar twice. Their reproduced durations were compared to those in the control condition (without odor). The results showed that participants produced significantly longer time intervals in the lavender condition than in the jasmine or garlic conditions. The overall influence of odor on time perception was equivalent for both visual and auditory modalities. The analysis of the interaction effect showed that participants produced longer durations than the actual duration in the short interval condition, but they produced shorter durations in the long interval condition. The effect sizes were larger for the auditory modality than those for the visual modality. Moreover, by comparing performance across the initial and the final blocks of the experiment, we found odor adaptation effects were mainly manifested as longer reproductions for the short time interval later in the adaptation phase, and there was a larger effect size in the auditory modality. In summary, the present results indicate that odors imposed differential impacts on reproduced time durations, and they were constrained by different sensory modalities, valence of the emotional events, and target durations. Biases in time perception could be accounted for by a framework of

Stimulus-driven attention, threat bias, and sad bias in youth with a history of an anxiety disorder or depression

PubMed Central

Sylvester, Chad M.; Hudziak, James J.; Gaffrey, Michael S.; Barch, Deanna M.; Luby, Joan L.

2015-01-01

Attention biases towards threatening and sad stimuli are associated with pediatric anxiety and depression, respectively. The basic cognitive mechanisms associated with attention biases in youth, however, remain unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that threat bias (selective attention for threatening versus neutral stimuli) but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. We collected measures of stimulus-driven attention, threat bias, sad bias, and current clinical symptoms in youth with a history of an anxiety disorder and/or depression (ANX/DEP; n=40) as well as healthy controls (HC; n=33). Stimulus-driven attention was measured with a non-emotional spatial orienting task, while threat bias and sad bias were measured at a short time interval (150 ms) with a spatial orienting task using emotional faces and at a longer time interval (500 ms) using a dot-probe task. In ANX/DEP but not HC, early attention bias towards threat was negatively correlated with later attention bias to threat, suggesting that early threat vigilance was associated with later threat avoidance. Across all subjects, stimulus-driven orienting was not correlated with early threat bias but was negatively correlated with later threat bias, indicating that rapid stimulus-driven orienting is linked to later threat avoidance. No parallel relationships were detected for sad bias. Current symptoms of depression but not anxiety were related to decreased stimulus-driven attention. Together, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that threat bias but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. These results inform the design of attention bias modification programs that aim to reverse threat biases and reduce symptoms associated with pediatric anxiety and depression. PMID:25702927

Stimulus-Driven Attention, Threat Bias, and Sad Bias in Youth with a History of an Anxiety Disorder or Depression.

PubMed

Sylvester, Chad M; Hudziak, James J; Gaffrey, Michael S; Barch, Deanna M; Luby, Joan L

2016-02-01

Attention biases towards threatening and sad stimuli are associated with pediatric anxiety and depression, respectively. The basic cognitive mechanisms associated with attention biases in youth, however, remain unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that threat bias (selective attention for threatening versus neutral stimuli) but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. We collected measures of stimulus-driven attention, threat bias, sad bias, and current clinical symptoms in youth with a history of an anxiety disorder and/or depression (ANX/DEP; n = 40) as well as healthy controls (HC; n = 33). Stimulus-driven attention was measured with a non-emotional spatial orienting task, while threat bias and sad bias were measured at a short time interval (150 ms) with a spatial orienting task using emotional faces and at a longer time interval (500 ms) using a dot-probe task. In ANX/DEP but not HC, early attention bias towards threat was negatively correlated with later attention bias to threat, suggesting that early threat vigilance was associated with later threat avoidance. Across all subjects, stimulus-driven orienting was not correlated with early threat bias but was negatively correlated with later threat bias, indicating that rapid stimulus-driven orienting is linked to later threat avoidance. No parallel relationships were detected for sad bias. Current symptoms of depression but not anxiety were related to decreased stimulus-driven attention. Together, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that threat bias but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. These results inform the design of attention bias modification programs that aim to reverse threat biases and reduce symptoms associated with pediatric anxiety and depression.

Bias to CMB lensing reconstruction from temperature anisotropies due to large-scale galaxy motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, Simone; Hill, J. Colin

2018-01-01

Gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is expected to be amongst the most powerful cosmological tools for ongoing and upcoming CMB experiments. In this work, we investigate a bias to CMB lensing reconstruction from temperature anisotropies due to the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect, that is, the Doppler shift of CMB photons induced by Compton scattering off moving electrons. The kSZ signal yields biases due to both its own intrinsic non-Gaussianity and its nonzero cross-correlation with the CMB lensing field (and other fields that trace the large-scale structure). This kSZ-induced bias affects both the CMB lensing autopower spectrum and its cross-correlation with low-redshift tracers. Furthermore, it cannot be removed by multifrequency foreground separation techniques because the kSZ effect preserves the blackbody spectrum of the CMB. While statistically negligible for current data sets, we show that it will be important for upcoming surveys, and failure to account for it can lead to large biases in constraints on neutrino masses or the properties of dark energy. For a stage 4 CMB experiment, the bias can be as large as ≈15 % or 12% in cross-correlation with LSST galaxy lensing convergence or galaxy overdensity maps, respectively, when the maximum temperature multipole used in the reconstruction is ℓmax=4000 , and about half of that when ℓmax=3000 . Similarly, we find that the CMB lensing autopower spectrum can be biased by up to several percent. These biases are many times larger than the expected statistical errors. We validate our analytical predictions with cosmological simulations and present the first complete estimate of secondary-induced CMB lensing biases. The predicted bias is sensitive to the small-scale gas distribution, which is affected by pressure and feedback mechanisms, thus making removal via "bias-hardened" estimators challenging. Reducing ℓmax can significantly mitigate the bias at the cost of a decrease

Greek Physical Education Teachers' Gender Biases in Learning and Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mouratidou, Katerina; Barkoukis, Vassilis

2018-01-01

Gender biases have often been observed in physical education (PE) classes, as many teachers adopt a male-biased perspective in teaching and learning. This might affect their evaluation of students' behavior and may lead students to accept and reproduce gender biases in other social contexts. The aim of this study was to examine whether PE teachers…

How we categorize objects is related to how we remember them: The shape bias as a memory bias.

PubMed

Vlach, Haley A

2016-12-01

The "shape bias" describes the phenomenon that, after a certain point in development, children and adults generalize object categories based on shape to a greater degree than other perceptual features. The focus of research on the shape bias has been to examine the types of information that learners attend to in one moment in time. The current work takes a different approach by examining whether learners' categorical biases are related to their retention of information across time. In three experiments, children's (N=72) and adults' (N=240) memory performance for features of objects was examined in relation to their categorical biases. The results of these experiments demonstrated that the number of shape matches chosen during the shape bias task significantly predicted shape memory. Moreover, children and adults with a shape bias were more likely to remember the shape of objects than the color and size of objects. Taken together, this work suggests that the development of a shape bias may engender better memory for shape information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recursive estimators of mean-areal and local bias in precipitation products that account for conditional bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Seo, Dong-Jun

2017-03-01

This paper presents novel formulations of Mean field bias (MFB) and local bias (LB) correction schemes that incorporate conditional bias (CB) penalty. These schemes are based on the operational MFB and LB algorithms in the National Weather Service (NWS) Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE). By incorporating CB penalty in the cost function of exponential smoothers, we are able to derive augmented versions of recursive estimators of MFB and LB. Two extended versions of MFB algorithms are presented, one incorporating spatial variation of gauge locations only (MFB-L), and the second integrating both gauge locations and CB penalty (MFB-X). These two MFB schemes and the extended LB scheme (LB-X) are assessed relative to the original MFB and LB algorithms (referred to as MFB-O and LB-O, respectively) through a retrospective experiment over a radar domain in north-central Texas, and through a synthetic experiment over the Mid-Atlantic region. The outcome of the former experiment indicates that introducing the CB penalty to the MFB formulation leads to small, but consistent improvements in bias and CB, while its impacts on hourly correlation and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are mixed. Incorporating CB penalty in LB formulation tends to improve the RMSE at high rainfall thresholds, but its impacts on bias are also mixed. The synthetic experiment suggests that beneficial impacts are more conspicuous at low gauge density (9 per 58,000 km2), and tend to diminish at higher gauge density. The improvement at high rainfall intensity is partly an outcome of the conservativeness of the extended LB scheme. This conservativeness arises in part from the more frequent presence of negative eigenvalues in the extended covariance matrix which leads to no, or smaller incremental changes to the smoothed rainfall amounts.

Attention Biases to Threat Link Behavioral Inhibition to Social Withdrawal over Time in Very Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perez-Edgar, Koraly; Reeb-Sutherland, Bethany C.; McDermott, Jennifer Martin; White, Lauren K.; Henderson, Heather A.; Degnan, Kathryn A.; Hane, Amie A.; Pine, Daniel S.; Fox, Nathan A.

2011-01-01

Behaviorally inhibited children display a temperamental profile characterized by social withdrawal and anxious behaviors. Previous research, focused largely on adolescents, suggests that attention biases to threat may sustain high levels of behavioral inhibition (BI) over time, helping link early temperament to social outcomes. However, no prior…

Allocating time to future tasks: the effect of task segmentation on planning fallacy bias.

PubMed

Forsyth, Darryl K; Burt, Christopher D B

2008-06-01

The scheduling component of the time management process was used as a "paradigm" to investigate the allocation of time to future tasks. In three experiments, we compared task time allocation for a single task with the summed time allocations given for each subtask that made up the single task. In all three, we found that allocated time for a single task was significantly smaller than the summed time allocated to the individual subtasks. We refer to this as the segmentation effect. In Experiment 3, we asked participants to give estimates by placing a mark on a time line, and found that giving time allocations in the form of rounded close approximations probably does not account for the segmentation effect. We discuss the results in relation to the basic processes used to allocate time to future tasks and the means by which planning fallacy bias might be reduced.

Bias Reduction and Filter Convergence for Long Range Stereo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibley, Gabe; Matthies, Larry; Sukhatme, Gaurav

2005-01-01

We are concerned here with improving long range stereo by filtering image sequences. Traditionally, measurement errors from stereo camera systems have been approximated as 3-D Gaussians, where the mean is derived by triangulation and the covariance by linearized error propagation. However, there are two problems that arise when filtering such 3-D measurements. First, stereo triangulation suffers from a range dependent statistical bias; when filtering this leads to over-estimating the true range. Second, filtering 3-D measurements derived via linearized error propagation leads to apparent filter divergence; the estimator is biased to under-estimate range. To address the first issue, we examine the statistical behavior of stereo triangulation and show how to remove the bias by series expansion. The solution to the second problem is to filter with image coordinates as measurements instead of triangulated 3-D coordinates.

Methodological challenges to control for immortal time bias in addressing drug effects in type 2 diabetes

PubMed Central

Yang, Xi-Lin; Huo, Xiao-Xu; Chan, Juliana CN

2015-01-01

There are multiple biases in using observational studies to examine treatment effects such as those from prevalent drug users, immortal time and drug indications. We used renin angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors and statins as reference drugs with proven efficacies in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and examined their effectiveness in the prospective Hong Kong Diabetes Registry using adjustment methods proposed in the literature. Using time-dependent exposures to drug treatments yielded greatly inflated hazard ratios (HR) regarding the treatment effects of these drugs for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes. These errors were probably due to changing indications to use these drugs during follow up periods, especially at the time of drug commencement making time-dependent analysis extremely problematic. Using time-fixed analysis with exclusion of immortal time and adjustment for confounders at baseline and/or during follow-up periods, the HR of RAS inhibitors for CVD was comparable to that in RCT. The result supported the use of the Registry for performing pharmacoepidemiological analysis which revealed an attenuated low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol related cancer risk with RAS inhibitors. On the other hand, time-fixed analysis with including immortal time and adjustment for confounders at baseline and/or during follow-up periods, the HR of statins for CVD was similar to that in the RCT. Our results highlight the complexity and difficulty in removing these biases. We call for validations of the methods to cope with immortal time and drug use indications before applying them to particular research questions, so to avoid making erroneous conclusions. PMID:26413484

Methodological challenges to control for immortal time bias in addressing drug effects in type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Yang, Xi-Lin; Huo, Xiao-Xu; Chan, Juliana Cn

2015-09-26

There are multiple biases in using observational studies to examine treatment effects such as those from prevalent drug users, immortal time and drug indications. We used renin angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors and statins as reference drugs with proven efficacies in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and examined their effectiveness in the prospective Hong Kong Diabetes Registry using adjustment methods proposed in the literature. Using time-dependent exposures to drug treatments yielded greatly inflated hazard ratios (HR) regarding the treatment effects of these drugs for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes. These errors were probably due to changing indications to use these drugs during follow up periods, especially at the time of drug commencement making time-dependent analysis extremely problematic. Using time-fixed analysis with exclusion of immortal time and adjustment for confounders at baseline and/or during follow-up periods, the HR of RAS inhibitors for CVD was comparable to that in RCT. The result supported the use of the Registry for performing pharmacoepidemiological analysis which revealed an attenuated low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol related cancer risk with RAS inhibitors. On the other hand, time-fixed analysis with including immortal time and adjustment for confounders at baseline and/or during follow-up periods, the HR of statins for CVD was similar to that in the RCT. Our results highlight the complexity and difficulty in removing these biases. We call for validations of the methods to cope with immortal time and drug use indications before applying them to particular research questions, so to avoid making erroneous conclusions.

Taphonomic bias in pollen and spore record: a review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisk, L.H.

The high dispersibility and ease of pollen and spore transport have led researchers to conclude erroneously that fossil pollen and spore floras are relatively complete and record unbiased representations of the regional vegetation extant at the time of sediment deposition. That such conclusions are unjustified is obvious when the authors remember that polynomorphs are merely organic sedimentary particles and undergo hydraulic sorting not unlike clastic sedimentary particles. Prior to deposition in the fossil record, pollen and spores can be hydraulically sorted by size, shape, and weight, subtly biasing relative frequencies in fossil assemblages. Sorting during transport results in palynofloras whosemore » composition is environmentally dependent. Therefore, depositional environment is an important consideration to make correct inferences on the source vegetation. Sediment particle size of original rock samples may contain important information on the probability of a taphonomically biased pollen and spore assemblage. In addition, a reasonable test of hydraulic sorting is the distribution of pollen grain sizes and shapes in each assemblage. Any assemblage containing a wide spectrum of grain sizes and shapes has obviously not undergone significant sorting. If unrecognized, taphonomic bias can lead to paleoecologic, paleoclimatic, and even biostratigraphic misinterpretations.« less

A comparison of alternative variants of the lead and lag time TTO.

PubMed

Devlin, Nancy; Buckingham, Ken; Shah, Koonal; Tsuchiya, Aki; Tilling, Carl; Wilkinson, Grahame; van Hout, Ben

2013-05-01

'Lead Time' TTO improves upon conventional TTO by providing a uniform method for eliciting positive and negative values. This research investigates (i) the values generated from different combinations of time in poor health and in full health; and the order in which these appear (lead vs. lag); (ii) whether values concur with participants' views about states; (iii) methods for handling extreme preferences. n = 208 participants valued five EQ-5D states, using two of four variants. Combinations of lead time and health state duration were: 10 years and 20 years; 5 years and 1 year; 5 years and 10 years; and a health state duration of 5 years with a lag time of 10 years. Longer lead times capture more preferences, but may involve a framing effect. Lag time results in less non-trading for mild states, and less time being traded for severe states. Negative values broadly agree with participants' stated opinion that the state is worse than dead. The values are sensitive to the ratio of lead time to duration of poor health, and the order in which these appear (lead vs. lag). It is feasible to handle extreme preferences though challenges remain. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Participation in an Intergenerational Service Learning Course and Implicit Biases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kogan, Lori R.; Schoenfeld-Tacher, Regina M.

2018-01-01

Biases against the elderly and people with disabilities can lead to discriminatory behaviors. One way to conceptualize attitudes toward the elderly and people with disabilities is through the differentiation of explicit (conscious) and implicit (unconscious) factors. Although both explicit and implicit attitudes and biases contribute to the full…

Emotional Encoding Context Leads to Memory Bias in Individuals with High Anxiety

PubMed Central

Fernandes, Myra A.

2017-01-01

We investigated whether anxious individuals, who adopt an inherently negative mindset, demonstrate a particularly salient memory bias for words tainted by negative contexts. To this end, sequentially presented target words, overlayed onto negative or neutral pictures, were studied in separate blocks (within-subjects) using a deep or shallow encoding instruction (between-subjects). Following study, in Test 1, participants completed separate recognition test blocks for the words overlayed onto the negative and the neutral contexts. Following this, in Test 2, participants completed a recognition test for the foils from each Test 1 block. We found a significant three-way interaction on Test 2, such that individuals with high anxiety who initially studied target words using a shallow encoding instruction, demonstrated significantly elevated memory for foils that were contained within the negative Test 1 block. Results show that during retrieval (Test 1), participants re-entered the mode of processing (negative or neutral) engaged at encoding, tainting the encoding of foils with that same mode of processing. The findings suggest that individuals with high relative to low anxiety, adopt a particularly salient negative retrieval mode, and this creates a downstream bias in encoding and subsequent retrieval of otherwise neutral information. PMID:29280957

Emotional Encoding Context Leads to Memory Bias in Individuals with High Anxiety.

PubMed

Lee, Christopher; Fernandes, Myra A

2017-12-27

We investigated whether anxious individuals, who adopt an inherently negative mindset, demonstrate a particularly salient memory bias for words tainted by negative contexts. To this end, sequentially presented target words, overlayed onto negative or neutral pictures, were studied in separate blocks (within-subjects) using a deep or shallow encoding instruction (between-subjects). Following study, in Test 1, participants completed separate recognition test blocks for the words overlayed onto the negative and the neutral contexts. Following this, in Test 2, participants completed a recognition test for the foils from each Test 1 block. We found a significant three-way interaction on Test 2, such that individuals with high anxiety who initially studied target words using a shallow encoding instruction, demonstrated significantly elevated memory for foils that were contained within the negative Test 1 block. Results show that during retrieval (Test 1), participants re-entered the mode of processing (negative or neutral) engaged at encoding, tainting the encoding of foils with that same mode of processing. The findings suggest that individuals with high relative to low anxiety, adopt a particularly salient negative retrieval mode, and this creates a downstream bias in encoding and subsequent retrieval of otherwise neutral information.

How we categorize objects is related to how we remember them: The shape bias as a memory bias

PubMed Central

Vlach, Haley A.

2016-01-01

The “shape bias” describes the phenomenon that, after a certain point in development, children and adults generalize object categories based upon shape to a greater degree than other perceptual features. The focus of research on the shape bias has been to examine the types of information that learners attend to in one moment in time. The current work takes a different approach by examining whether learners' categorical biases are related to their retention of information across time. In three experiments, children's (N = 72) and adults' (N = 240) memory performance for features of objects was examined in relation to their categorical biases. The results of these experiments demonstrated that the number of shape matches chosen during the shape bias task significantly predicted shape memory. Moreover, children and adults with a shape bias were more likely to remember the shape of objects than they were the color and size of objects. Taken together, this work suggests the development of a shape bias may engender better memory for shape information. PMID:27454236

Biased Brownian dynamics for rate constant calculation.

PubMed

Zou, G; Skeel, R D; Subramaniam, S

2000-08-01

An enhanced sampling method-biased Brownian dynamics-is developed for the calculation of diffusion-limited biomolecular association reaction rates with high energy or entropy barriers. Biased Brownian dynamics introduces a biasing force in addition to the electrostatic force between the reactants, and it associates a probability weight with each trajectory. A simulation loses weight when movement is along the biasing force and gains weight when movement is against the biasing force. The sampling of trajectories is then biased, but the sampling is unbiased when the trajectory outcomes are multiplied by their weights. With a suitable choice of the biasing force, more reacted trajectories are sampled. As a consequence, the variance of the estimate is reduced. In our test case, biased Brownian dynamics gives a sevenfold improvement in central processing unit (CPU) time with the choice of a simple centripetal biasing force.

Effect of liquid gate bias rising time in pH sensors based on Si nanowire ion sensitive field effect transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Jungkyu; Choi, Sungju; Kim, Jungmok; Park, Tae Jung; Park, Byung-Gook; Kim, Dong Myong; Choi, Sung-Jin; Lee, Seung Min; Kim, Dae Hwan; Mo, Hyun-Sun

2018-02-01

In this study, we investigate the effect of rising time (TR) of liquid gate bias (VLG) on transient responses in pH sensors based on Si nanowire ion-sensitive field-effect transistors (ISFETs). As TR becomes shorter and pH values decrease, the ISFET current takes a longer time to saturate to the pH-dependent steady-state value. By correlating VLG with the internal gate-to-source voltage of the ISFET, we found that this effect occurs when the drift/diffusion of mobile ions in analytes in response to VLG is delayed. This gives us useful insight on the design of ISFET-based point-of-care circuits and systems, particularly with respect to determining an appropriate rising time for the liquid gate bias.

Reproducibility and day time bias correction of optoelectronic leg volumetry: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Engelberger, Rolf P; Blazek, Claudia; Amsler, Felix; Keo, Hong H; Baumann, Frédéric; Blättler, Werner; Baumgartner, Iris; Willenberg, Torsten

2011-10-05

Leg edema is a common manifestation of various underlying pathologies. Reliable measurement tools are required to quantify edema and monitor therapeutic interventions. Aim of the present work was to investigate the reproducibility of optoelectronic leg volumetry over 3 weeks' time period and to eliminate daytime related within-individual variability. Optoelectronic leg volumetry was performed in 63 hairdressers (mean age 45 ± 16 years, 85.7% female) in standing position twice within a minute for each leg and repeated after 3 weeks. Both lower leg (legBD) and whole limb (limbBF) volumetry were analysed. Reproducibility was expressed as analytical and within-individual coefficients of variance (CVA, CVW), and as intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). A total of 492 leg volume measurements were analysed. Both legBD and limbBF volumetry were highly reproducible with CVA of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Within-individual reproducibility of legBD and limbBF volumetry over a three weeks' period was high (CVW 1.3% for both; ICC 0.99 for both). At both visits, the second measurement revealed a significantly higher volume compared to the first measurement with a mean increase of 7.3 ml ± 14.1 (0.33% ± 0.58%) for legBD and 30.1 ml ± 48.5 ml (0.52% ± 0.79%) for limbBF volume. A significant linear correlation between absolute and relative leg volume differences and the difference of exact day time of measurement between the two study visits was found (P < .001). A therefore determined time-correction formula permitted further improvement of CVW. Leg volume changes can be reliably assessed by optoelectronic leg volumetry at a single time point and over a 3 weeks' time period. However, volumetry results are biased by orthostatic and daytime-related volume changes. The bias for day-time related volume changes can be minimized by a time-correction formula.

Projecting my envy onto you: neurocognitive mechanisms of an offline emotional egocentricity bias.

PubMed

Steinbeis, Nikolaus; Singer, Tania

2014-11-15

Humans often project their own beliefs, desires and emotions onto others, indicating an inherent egocentrism. In five studies we investigated the neurocognitive mechanisms underlying emotional egocentricity bias (EEB) and specifically an offline EEB, defined as the projection of one's own tendency to react with a certain emotional response pattern in a given situation onto other people. We used a competitive reaction time game associated with monetary gains and losses that allowed inducing feelings of envy and Schadenfreude. While we found evidence for the first hand experience of envy and Schadenfreude, we also observed an offline bias, that is participants on average projected feelings of envy and Schadenfreude when having to judge others. Importantly the extent of experienced and projected social emotions were highly correlated. This bias was observed when participants were both directly involved and also as an uninvolved party, suggesting the offline bias to be independent of the presently experienced emotion. Under increased time pressure however an online bias emerged whereby participants just projected their presently experienced emotions onto the other. Finally, we show that on the neural level shared neuronal networks underlie the offline EEB at least for envy. Thus, for envy, activity of the same part of anterior insula was sensitive to individual differences both in the experience and the projection of envy. These findings outline the set of circumstances leading to specific types of empathic attribution biases and show that individual differences in the experience of social emotions are predictive of the offline egocentricity bias both on a behavioral as well as a neural level. These data extend present models on the neurocognitive mechanisms of interpersonal understanding in the socio-affective domain. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accuracy and Bias in Perception of Distress Level and Distress Change Among Same-Sex College Student Roommate Dyads.

PubMed

Xu, Qi; Shrout, Patrick E

2018-06-01

University students often experience high levels of stress and, in some cases, the stress leads to tragic outcomes. An important question is whether roommates can perceive the level and change in distress in their peers. We examined self- and other-reports of 187 same-sex undergraduate dyads at two times in a spring semester. Using the truth and bias model, we found that roommates tended to underestimate their partner's distress at both time points, and that ratings were equally influenced by truth and self-focus bias forces. For change, however, there was no evidence of directional (average) bias, and perceived change was only significantly related to the truth force. There were no consistent moderation effects by closeness or gender. These findings are interpreted in the context of person perception theory and the practical need for early warning about extreme distress in college students.

Bias correction of daily satellite precipitation data using genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratama, A. W.; Buono, A.; Hidayat, R.; Harsa, H.

2018-05-01

Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) was producted by blending Satellite-only Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) with Stasion observations data. The blending process was aimed to reduce bias of CHIRP. However, Biases of CHIRPS on statistical moment and quantil values were high during wet season over Java Island. This paper presented a bias correction scheme to adjust statistical moment of CHIRP using observation precipitation data. The scheme combined Genetic Algorithm and Nonlinear Power Transformation, the results was evaluated based on different season and different elevation level. The experiment results revealed that the scheme robustly reduced bias on variance around 100% reduction and leaded to reduction of first, and second quantile biases. However, bias on third quantile only reduced during dry months. Based on different level of elevation, the performance of bias correction process is only significantly different on skewness indicators.

Influence of dispatching rules on average production lead time for multi-stage production systems.

PubMed

Hübl, Alexander; Jodlbauer, Herbert; Altendorfer, Klaus

2013-08-01

In this paper the influence of different dispatching rules on the average production lead time is investigated. Two theorems based on covariance between processing time and production lead time are formulated and proved theoretically. Theorem 1 links the average production lead time to the "processing time weighted production lead time" for the multi-stage production systems analytically. The influence of different dispatching rules on average lead time, which is well known from simulation and empirical studies, can be proved theoretically in Theorem 2 for a single stage production system. A simulation study is conducted to gain more insight into the influence of dispatching rules on average production lead time in a multi-stage production system. We find that the "processing time weighted average production lead time" for a multi-stage production system is not invariant of the applied dispatching rule and can be used as a dispatching rule independent indicator for single-stage production systems.

Parametric study of statistical bias in laser Doppler velocimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gould, Richard D.; Stevenson, Warren H.; Thompson, H. Doyle

1989-01-01

Analytical studies have often assumed that LDV velocity bias depends on turbulence intensity in conjunction with one or more characteristic time scales, such as the time between validated signals, the time between data samples, and the integral turbulence time-scale. These parameters are presently varied independently, in an effort to quantify the biasing effect. Neither of the post facto correction methods employed is entirely accurate. The mean velocity bias error is found to be nearly independent of data validation rate.

Biases in the subjective timing of perceptual events: Libet et al. (1983) revisited.

PubMed

Danquah, Adam N; Farrell, Martin J; O'Boyle, Donald J

2008-09-01

We report two experiments in which participants had to judge the time of occurrence of a stimulus relative to a clock. The experiments were based on the control condition used by Libet, Gleason, Wright, and Pearl [Libet, B., Gleason, C. A., Wright, E. W., & Pearl, D. K. (1983). Time of conscious intention to act in relation to onset of cerebral activities (readiness-potential): The unconscious initiation of a freely voluntary act. Brain 106, 623-642] to correct for any bias in the estimation of the time at which an endogenous event, the conscious intention to perform a movement, occurred. Participants' responses were affected systematically by the sensory modality of the stimulus and by the speed of the clock. Such findings demonstrate the variability in judging the time at which an exogenous event occurs and, by extension, suggest that such variability may also apply to the judging the time of occurrence of endogenous events. The reliability of participants' estimations of when they formed the conscious intention to perform a movement in Libet et al.'s (1983) study is therefore questionable.

Monitoring the aftermath of Flint drinking water contamination crisis: Another case of sampling bias?

PubMed

Goovaerts, Pierre

2017-07-15

The delay in reporting high levels of lead in Flint drinking water, following the city's switch to the Flint River as its water supply, was partially caused by the biased selection of sampling sites away from the lead pipe network. Since Flint returned to its pre-crisis source of drinking water, the State has been monitoring water lead levels (WLL) at selected "sentinel" sites. In a first phase that lasted two months, 739 residences were sampled, most of them bi-weekly, to determine the general health of the distribution system and to track temporal changes in lead levels. During the same period, water samples were also collected through a voluntary program whereby concerned citizens received free testing kits and conducted sampling on their own. State officials relied on the former data to demonstrate the steady improvement in water quality. A recent analysis of data collected by voluntary sampling revealed, however, an opposite trend with lead levels increasing over time. This paper looks at potential sampling bias to explain such differences. Although houses with higher WLL were more likely to be sampled repeatedly, voluntary sampling turned out to reproduce fairly well the main characteristics (i.e. presence of lead service lines (LSL), construction year) of Flint housing stock. State-controlled sampling was less representative; e.g., sentinel sites with LSL were mostly built between 1935 and 1950 in lower poverty areas, which might hamper our ability to disentangle the effects of LSL and premise plumbing (lead fixtures and pipes present within old houses) on WLL. Also, there was no sentinel site with LSL in two of the most impoverished wards, including where the percentage of children with elevated blood lead levels tripled following the switch in water supply. Correcting for sampling bias narrowed the gap between sampling programs, yet overall temporal trends are still opposite. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing bias against overweight individuals among nursing and psychology students: an implicit association test.

PubMed

Waller, Tabitha; Lampman, Claudia; Lupfer-Johnson, Gwen

2012-12-01

To determine the implicit or unconscious attitudes of Nursing and Psychology majors towards overweight individuals in medical and non-medical contexts. Obesity is a leading health concern today, which impacts both physical and psychological health. Overweight individuals confront social biases in many aspects of their lives including health care. Examining the views of Nursing and Psychology students may reveal implicit attitudes towards overweight individuals that may lead to prejudiced behaviours. A mixed design experiment with one between-subjects variable (student major: Nursing or Psychology) and one within-subjects variable (condition: congruent or incongruent) was used to assess implicit attitudes in two convenience samples of Nursing and Psychology students. A computerised implicit association test was used to determine implicit attitudes towards overweight individuals in medical and non-medical contexts. A total of 90 students from Nursing (n= 45) and Psychology (n = 45) were recruited to complete an implicit association test. Reaction times in milliseconds between the congruent trials (stereotype consistent) and incongruent trials (stereotype inconsistent) were compared with determine adherence to social stereotypes or weight bias. A statistically significant implicit bias towards overweight individuals was detected in both subject groups and in both target settings (medical vs. non-medical). Stronger weight bias was found when the stimulus targets were female than male. Findings from this study expand understanding of the implicit attitudes and social biases of Nursing and Psychology students. The views held by these future healthcare professionals may negatively impact patient care. Providing education and support to overweight individuals is central to Nursing practice in a society struggling to manage obesity. Negative stereotypes or beliefs about these individuals may result in poor patient care. Therefore, nurses and other healthcare professionals

Bias and robustness of uncertainty components estimates in transient climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hingray, Benoit; Blanchet, Juliette; Jean-Philippe, Vidal

2016-04-01

A critical issue in climate change studies is the estimation of uncertainties in projections along with the contribution of the different uncertainty sources, including scenario uncertainty, the different components of model uncertainty and internal variability. Quantifying the different uncertainty sources faces actually different problems. For instance and for the sake of simplicity, an estimate of model uncertainty is classically obtained from the empirical variance of the climate responses obtained for the different modeling chains. These estimates are however biased. Another difficulty arises from the limited number of members that are classically available for most modeling chains. In this case, the climate response of one given chain and the effect of its internal variability may be actually difficult if not impossible to separate. The estimate of scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability components are thus likely to be not really robust. We explore the importance of the bias and the robustness of the estimates for two classical Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches: a Single Time approach (STANOVA), based on the only data available for the considered projection lead time and a time series based approach (QEANOVA), which assumes quasi-ergodicity of climate outputs over the whole available climate simulation period (Hingray and Saïd, 2014). We explore both issues for a simple but classical configuration where uncertainties in projections are composed of two single sources: model uncertainty and internal climate variability. The bias in model uncertainty estimates is explored from theoretical expressions of unbiased estimators developed for both ANOVA approaches. The robustness of uncertainty estimates is explored for multiple synthetic ensembles of time series projections generated with MonteCarlo simulations. For both ANOVA approaches, when the empirical variance of climate responses is used to estimate model uncertainty, the bias

Bayesian lead time estimation for the Johns Hopkins Lung Project data.

PubMed

Jang, Hyejeong; Kim, Seongho; Wu, Dongfeng

2013-09-01

Lung cancer screening using X-rays has been controversial for many years. A major concern is whether lung cancer screening really brings any survival benefits, which depends on effective treatment after early detection. The problem was analyzed from a different point of view and estimates were presented of the projected lead time for participants in a lung cancer screening program using the Johns Hopkins Lung Project (JHLP) data. The newly developed method of lead time estimation was applied where the lifetime T was treated as a random variable rather than a fixed value, resulting in the number of future screenings for a given individual is a random variable. Using the actuarial life table available from the United States Social Security Administration, the lifetime distribution was first obtained, then the lead time distribution was projected using the JHLP data. The data analysis with the JHLP data shows that, for a male heavy smoker with initial screening ages at 50, 60, and 70, the probability of no-early-detection with semiannual screens will be 32.16%, 32.45%, and 33.17%, respectively; while the mean lead time is 1.36, 1.33 and 1.23 years. The probability of no-early-detection increases monotonically when the screening interval increases, and it increases slightly as the initial age increases for the same screening interval. The mean lead time and its standard error decrease when the screening interval increases for all age groups, and both decrease when initial age increases with the same screening interval. The overall mean lead time estimated with a random lifetime T is slightly less than that with a fixed value of T. This result is hoped to be of benefit to improve current screening programs. Copyright © 2013 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of time-window bias on the assessment of the long-term effect of medication adherence: the case of secondary prevention after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Di Martino, Mirko; Kirchmayer, Ursula; Agabiti, Nera; Bauleo, Lisa; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo Alberto; Davoli, Marina

2015-06-10

Time-window bias was described in case-control studies and led to a biased estimate of drug effect. No studies have measured the impact of this bias on the assessment of the effect of medication adherence on health outcomes. Our goals were to estimate the association between adherence to drug therapies after myocardial infarction (MI) and the incidence of a new MI, and to quantify the error that would have been produced by a time-window bias. This is a population-based study. Data were obtained from the Regional Health Information Systems of the Lazio Region in Central Italy (around 5 million inhabitants). Patients discharged after MI in 2006-2007 were enrolled in the cohort and followed through 2009. The study outcome was reinfarction: either mortality, or hospital admission for MI, whichever occurred first. A nested case-control study was performed. Controls were selected using both time-dependent and time-independent sampling. Adherence to antiplatelets, β-blockers, ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEI/ARBs) and statins was calculated using the proportion of days covered (PDC). A total of 6880 patients were enrolled in the cohort. Using time-dependent sampling, a protective effect was detected for all study drugs. Conversely, using time-independent sampling, the beneficial effect was attenuated, as in the case of antiplatelet agents and statins, or completely masked, as in the case of ACEI/ARBs and β-blockers. For ACEI/ARBs, the time-dependent approach produced ORs of 0.83 (95% CI 0.57 to 1.21) and 0.72 (0.55 to 0.95), respectively, for '0.5 < PDC ≤ 0.75' and 'PDC>0.75' versus '0 ≤ PDC ≤ 0.5'. Using the time-independent approach, the ORs were 0.96 (0.65 to 1.43) and 1.00 (0.76 to 1.33), respectively. A time-independent definition of a time-dependent exposure introduces a bias when the length of follow-up varies with the outcome. The persistence of time-related biases in peer-reviewed papers strongly suggests the need for increased awareness

Time Perception and Depressive Realism: Judgment Type, Psychophysical Functions and Bias

PubMed Central

Kornbrot, Diana E.; Msetfi, Rachel M.; Grimwood, Melvyn J.

2013-01-01

The effect of mild depression on time estimation and production was investigated. Participants made both magnitude estimation and magnitude production judgments for five time intervals (specified in seconds) from 3 sec to 65 sec. The parameters of the best fitting psychophysical function (power law exponent, intercept, and threshold) were determined individually for each participant in every condition. There were no significant effects of mood (high BDI, low BDI) or judgment (estimation, production) on the mean exponent, n = .98, 95% confidence interval (.96–1.04) or on the threshold. However, the intercept showed a ‘depressive realism’ effect, where high BDI participants had a smaller deviation from accuracy and a smaller difference between estimation and judgment than low BDI participants. Accuracy bias was assessed using three measures of accuracy: difference, defined as psychological time minus physical time, ratio, defined as psychological time divided by physical time, and a new logarithmic accuracy measure defined as ln (ratio). The ln (ratio) measure was shown to have approximately normal residuals when subjected to a mixed ANOVA with mood as a between groups explanatory factor and judgment and time category as repeated measures explanatory factors. The residuals of the other two accuracy measures flagrantly violated normality. The mixed ANOVAs of accuracy also showed a strong depressive realism effect, just like the intercepts of the psychophysical functions. There was also a strong negative correlation between estimation and production judgments. Taken together these findings support a clock model of time estimation, combined with additional cognitive mechanisms to account for the depressive realism effect. The findings also suggest strong methodological recommendations. PMID:23990960

Effects of biasing on the galaxy power spectrum at large scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beltran Jimenez, Jose; Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040, Madrid; Durrer, Ruth

2011-05-15

In this paper we study the effect of biasing on the power spectrum at large scales. We show that even though nonlinear biasing does introduce a white noise contribution on large scales, the P(k){proportional_to}k{sup n} behavior of the matter power spectrum on large scales may still be visible and above the white noise for about one decade. We show, that the Kaiser biasing scheme which leads to linear bias of the correlation function on large scales, also generates a linear bias of the power spectrum on rather small scales. This is a consequence of the divergence on small scales ofmore » the pure Harrison-Zeldovich spectrum. However, biasing becomes k dependent if we damp the underlying power spectrum on small scales. We also discuss the effect of biasing on the baryon acoustic oscillations.« less

Bias neglect: a blind spot in the evaluation of scientific results.

PubMed

Strickland, Brent; Mercier, Hugo

2014-01-01

Experimenter bias occurs when scientists' hypotheses influence their results, even if involuntarily. Meta-analyses have suggested that in some domains, such as psychology, up to a third of the studies could be unreliable due to such biases. A series of experiments demonstrates that while people are aware of the possibility that scientists can be more biased when the conclusions of their experiments fit their initial hypotheses, they robustly fail to appreciate that they should also be more sceptical of such results. This is true even when participants read descriptions of studies that have been shown to be biased. Moreover, participants take other sources of bias-such as financial incentives-into account, showing that this bias neglect may be specific to theory-driven hypothesis testing. In combination with a common style of scientific reporting, bias neglect could lead the public to accept premature conclusions.

Introduction to Unconscious Bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmelz, Joan T.

2010-05-01

We all have biases, and we are (for the most part) unaware of them. In general, men and women BOTH unconsciously devalue the contributions of women. This can have a detrimental effect on grant proposals, job applications, and performance reviews. Sociology is way ahead of astronomy in these studies. When evaluating identical application packages, male and female University psychology professors preferred 2:1 to hire "Brian” over "Karen” as an assistant professor. When evaluating a more experienced record (at the point of promotion to tenure), reservations were expressed four times more often when the name was female. This unconscious bias has a repeated negative effect on Karen's career. This talk will introduce the concept of unconscious bias and also give recommendations on how to address it using an example for a faculty search committee. The process of eliminating unconscious bias begins with awareness, then moves to policy and practice, and ends with accountability.

Analysis and correction of gradient nonlinearity bias in apparent diffusion coefficient measurements.

PubMed

Malyarenko, Dariya I; Ross, Brian D; Chenevert, Thomas L

2014-03-01

Gradient nonlinearity of MRI systems leads to spatially dependent b-values and consequently high non-uniformity errors (10-20%) in apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) measurements over clinically relevant field-of-views. This work seeks practical correction procedure that effectively reduces observed ADC bias for media of arbitrary anisotropy in the fewest measurements. All-inclusive bias analysis considers spatial and time-domain cross-terms for diffusion and imaging gradients. The proposed correction is based on rotation of the gradient nonlinearity tensor into the diffusion gradient frame where spatial bias of b-matrix can be approximated by its Euclidean norm. Correction efficiency of the proposed procedure is numerically evaluated for a range of model diffusion tensor anisotropies and orientations. Spatial dependence of nonlinearity correction terms accounts for the bulk (75-95%) of ADC bias for FA = 0.3-0.9. Residual ADC non-uniformity errors are amplified for anisotropic diffusion. This approximation obviates need for full diffusion tensor measurement and diagonalization to derive a corrected ADC. Practical scenarios are outlined for implementation of the correction on clinical MRI systems. The proposed simplified correction algorithm appears sufficient to control ADC non-uniformity errors in clinical studies using three orthogonal diffusion measurements. The most efficient reduction of ADC bias for anisotropic medium is achieved with non-lab-based diffusion gradients. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A statistical characterization of the Galileo-to-GPS inter-system bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gioia, Ciro; Borio, Daniele

2016-11-01

Global navigation satellite system operates using independent time scales and thus inter-system time offsets have to be determined to enable multi-constellation navigation solutions. GPS/Galileo inter-system bias and drift are evaluated here using different types of receivers: two mass market and two professional receivers. Moreover, three different approaches are considered for the inter-system bias determination: in the first one, the broadcast Galileo to GPS time offset is used to align GPS and Galileo time scales. In the second, the inter-system bias is included in the multi-constellation navigation solution and is estimated using the measurements available. Finally, an enhanced algorithm using constraints on the inter-system bias time evolution is proposed. The inter-system bias estimates obtained with the different approaches are analysed and their stability is experimentally evaluated using the Allan deviation. The impact of the inter-system bias on the position velocity time solution is also considered and the performance of the approaches analysed is evaluated in terms of standard deviation and mean errors for both horizontal and vertical components. From the experiments, it emerges that the inter-system bias is very stable and that the use of constraints, modelling the GPS/Galileo inter-system bias behaviour, significantly improves the performance of multi-constellation navigation.

Why are You Late?: Investigating the Role of Time Management in Time-Based Prospective Memory

PubMed Central

Waldum, Emily R; McDaniel, Mark A.

2016-01-01

Time-based prospective memory tasks (TBPM) are those that are to be performed at a specific future time. Contrary to typical laboratory TBPM tasks (e.g., “hit the “z” key every 5 minutes”), many real-world TBPM tasks require more complex time-management processes. For instance to attend an appointment on time, one must estimate the duration of the drive to the appointment and then utilize this estimate to create and execute a secondary TBPM intention (e.g., “I need to start driving by 1:30 to make my 2:00 appointment on time”). Future under- and overestimates of drive time can lead to inefficient TBPM performance with the former lending to missed appointments and the latter to long stints in the waiting room. Despite the common occurrence of complex TBPM tasks in everyday life, to date, no studies have investigated how components of time management, including time estimation, affect behavior in such complex TBPM tasks. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate timing biases in both older and younger adults and further to determine how such biases along with additional time management components including planning and plan fidelity influence complex TBPM performance. Results suggest for the first time that younger and older adults do not always utilize similar timing strategies, and as a result, can produce differential timing biases under the exact same environmental conditions. These timing biases, in turn, play a vital role in how efficiently both younger and older adults perform a later TBPM task that requires them to utilize their earlier time estimate. PMID:27336325

On the impact of GNSS ambiguity resolution: geometry, ionosphere, time and biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodabandeh, A.; Teunissen, P. J. G.

2018-06-01

Integer ambiguity resolution (IAR) is the key to fast and precise GNSS positioning and navigation. Next to the positioning parameters, however, there are several other types of GNSS parameters that are of importance for a range of different applications like atmospheric sounding, instrumental calibrations or time transfer. As some of these parameters may still require pseudo-range data for their estimation, their response to IAR may differ significantly. To infer the impact of ambiguity resolution on the parameters, we show how the ambiguity-resolved double-differenced phase data propagate into the GNSS parameter solutions. For that purpose, we introduce a canonical decomposition of the GNSS network model that, through its decoupled and decorrelated nature, provides direct insight into which parameters, or functions thereof, gain from IAR and which do not. Next to this qualitative analysis, we present for the GNSS estimable parameters of geometry, ionosphere, timing and instrumental biases closed-form expressions of their IAR precision gains together with supporting numerical examples.

On the impact of GNSS ambiguity resolution: geometry, ionosphere, time and biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodabandeh, A.; Teunissen, P. J. G.

2017-11-01

Integer ambiguity resolution (IAR) is the key to fast and precise GNSS positioning and navigation. Next to the positioning parameters, however, there are several other types of GNSS parameters that are of importance for a range of different applications like atmospheric sounding, instrumental calibrations or time transfer. As some of these parameters may still require pseudo-range data for their estimation, their response to IAR may differ significantly. To infer the impact of ambiguity resolution on the parameters, we show how the ambiguity-resolved double-differenced phase data propagate into the GNSS parameter solutions. For that purpose, we introduce a canonical decomposition of the GNSS network model that, through its decoupled and decorrelated nature, provides direct insight into which parameters, or functions thereof, gain from IAR and which do not. Next to this qualitative analysis, we present for the GNSS estimable parameters of geometry, ionosphere, timing and instrumental biases closed-form expressions of their IAR precision gains together with supporting numerical examples.

Lead Time Study,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-01

1979, the number of titanium fabrications dropped from 16 to 4, primarily because of the sponge shortage and EPA and OSHA requirements. Non-military...East - Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong. In addition, a significant amount of ceramic parts, lead frames and high technology

Adaptive Variable Bias Magnetic Bearing Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dexter; Brown, Gerald V.; Inman, Daniel J.

1998-01-01

Most magnetic bearing control schemes use a bias current with a superimposed control current to linearize the relationship between the control current and the force it delivers. With the existence of the bias current, even in no load conditions, there is always some power consumption. In aerospace applications, power consumption becomes an important concern. In response to this concern, an alternative magnetic bearing control method, called Adaptive Variable Bias Control (AVBC), has been developed and its performance examined. The AVBC operates primarily as a proportional-derivative controller with a relatively slow, bias current dependent, time-varying gain. The AVBC is shown to reduce electrical power loss, be nominally stable, and provide control performance similar to conventional bias control. Analytical, computer simulation, and experimental results are presented in this paper.

Biased selection within the social health insurance market in Colombia.

PubMed

Castano, Ramon; Zambrano, Andres

2006-12-01

Reducing the impact of insurance market failures with regulations such as community-rated premiums, standardized benefit packages and open enrolment, yield limited effect because they create room for selection bias. The Colombian social health insurance system started a market approach in 1993 expecting to improve performance of preexisting monopolistic insurance funds by exposing them to competition by new entrants. This paper tests the hypothesis that market failures would lead to biased selection favoring new entrants. Two household surveys are analyzed using Self-Reported Health Status and the presence of chronic conditions as prospective indicators of individual risk. Biased selection is found to take place, leading to adverse selection among incumbents, and favorable selection among new entrants. This pattern is absent in 1997 but is evident in 2003. Given that the two incumbents analyzed are public organizations, the fiscal implications of the findings in terms of government bailouts, are analyzed.

Computer-aided system of evaluation for population-based all-in-one service screening (CASE-PASS): from study design to outcome analysis with bias adjustment.

PubMed

Chen, Li-Sheng; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Duffy, Stephen W; Tabar, Laszlo; Lin, Wen-Chou; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

2010-10-01

Population-based routine service screening has gained popularity following an era of randomized controlled trials. The evaluation of these service screening programs is subject to study design, data availability, and the precise data analysis for adjusting bias. We developed a computer-aided system that allows the evaluation of population-based service screening to unify these aspects and facilitate and guide the program assessor to efficiently perform an evaluation. This system underpins two experimental designs: the posttest-only non-equivalent design and the one-group pretest-posttest design and demonstrates the type of data required at both the population and individual levels. Three major analyses were developed that included a cumulative mortality analysis, survival analysis with lead-time adjustment, and self-selection bias adjustment. We used SAS AF software to develop a graphic interface system with a pull-down menu style. We demonstrate the application of this system with data obtained from a Swedish population-based service screen and a population-based randomized controlled trial for the screening of breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer, and one service screening program for cervical cancer with Pap smears. The system provided automated descriptive results based on the various sources of available data and cumulative mortality curves corresponding to the study designs. The comparison of cumulative survival between clinically and screen-detected cases without a lead-time adjustment are also demonstrated. The intention-to-treat and noncompliance analysis with self-selection bias adjustments are also shown to assess the effectiveness of the population-based service screening program. Model validation was composed of a comparison between our adjusted self-selection bias estimates and the empirical results on effectiveness reported in the literature. We demonstrate a computer-aided system allowing the evaluation of population-based service screening

Biased learning affects mate choice in a butterfly.

PubMed

Westerman, Erica L; Hodgins-Davis, Andrea; Dinwiddie, April; Monteiro, Antónia

2012-07-03

Early acquisition of mate preferences or mate-preference learning is associated with signal diversity and speciation in a wide variety of animal species. However, the diversity of mechanisms of mate-preference learning across taxa remains poorly understood. Using the butterfly Bicyclus anynana we uncover a mechanism that can lead to directional sexual selection via mate-preference learning: a bias in learning enhanced ornamentation, which is independent of preexisting mating biases. Naïve females mated preferentially with wild-type males over males with enhanced wing ornamentation, but females briefly exposed to enhanced males mated significantly more often with enhanced males. In contrast, females exposed to males with reduced wing ornamentation did not learn to prefer drab males. Thus, we observe both a learned change of a preexisting mating bias, and a bias in ability to learn enhanced male ornaments over reduced ornaments. Our findings demonstrate that females are able to change their preferences in response to a single social event, and suggest a role for biased learning in the evolution of visual sexual ornamentation.

Mixture models reveal multiple positional bias types in RNA-Seq data and lead to accurate transcript concentration estimates.

PubMed

Tuerk, Andreas; Wiktorin, Gregor; Güler, Serhat

2017-05-01

Accuracy of transcript quantification with RNA-Seq is negatively affected by positional fragment bias. This article introduces Mix2 (rd. "mixquare"), a transcript quantification method which uses a mixture of probability distributions to model and thereby neutralize the effects of positional fragment bias. The parameters of Mix2 are trained by Expectation Maximization resulting in simultaneous transcript abundance and bias estimates. We compare Mix2 to Cufflinks, RSEM, eXpress and PennSeq; state-of-the-art quantification methods implementing some form of bias correction. On four synthetic biases we show that the accuracy of Mix2 overall exceeds the accuracy of the other methods and that its bias estimates converge to the correct solution. We further evaluate Mix2 on real RNA-Seq data from the Microarray and Sequencing Quality Control (MAQC, SEQC) Consortia. On MAQC data, Mix2 achieves improved correlation to qPCR measurements with a relative increase in R2 between 4% and 50%. Mix2 also yields repeatable concentration estimates across technical replicates with a relative increase in R2 between 8% and 47% and reduced standard deviation across the full concentration range. We further observe more accurate detection of differential expression with a relative increase in true positives between 74% and 378% for 5% false positives. In addition, Mix2 reveals 5 dominant biases in MAQC data deviating from the common assumption of a uniform fragment distribution. On SEQC data, Mix2 yields higher consistency between measured and predicted concentration ratios. A relative error of 20% or less is obtained for 51% of transcripts by Mix2, 40% of transcripts by Cufflinks and RSEM and 30% by eXpress. Titration order consistency is correct for 47% of transcripts for Mix2, 41% for Cufflinks and RSEM and 34% for eXpress. We, further, observe improved repeatability across laboratory sites with a relative increase in R2 between 8% and 44% and reduced standard deviation.

Simulations of Biased Agonists in the β2 Adrenergic Receptor with Accelerated Molecular Dynamics

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The biased agonism of the G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), where in addition to a traditional G protein-signaling pathway a GPCR promotes intracellular signals though β-arrestin, is a novel paradigm in pharmacology. Biochemical and biophysical studies have suggested that a GPCR forms a distinct ensemble of conformations signaling through the G protein and β-arrestin. Here we report on the dynamics of the β2 adrenergic receptor bound to the β-arrestin and G protein-biased agonists and the empty receptor to further characterize the receptor conformational changes caused by biased agonists. We use conventional and accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) simulations to explore the conformational transitions of the GPCR from the active state to the inactive state. We found that aMD simulations enable monitoring of the transition within the nanosecond time scale while capturing the known microscopic characteristics of the inactive states, such as the ionic lock, the inward position of F6.44, and water clusters. Distinct conformational states are shown to be stabilized by each biased agonist. In particular, in simulations of the receptor with the β-arrestin-biased agonist N-cyclopentylbutanepherine, we observe a different pattern of motions in helix 7 when compared to simulations with the G protein-biased agonist salbutamol that involves perturbations of the network of interactions within the NPxxY motif. Understanding the network of interactions induced by biased ligands and the subsequent receptor conformational shifts will lead to development of more efficient drugs. PMID:23879802

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, tomore » capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Mapping species distributions with MAXENT using a geographically biased sample of presence data: a performance assessment of methods for correcting sampling bias.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one "virtual" derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases.

Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towers, S.

2014-07-01

When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses yield unbiased results. However, particle physics experiments are expensive and time consuming to carry out, thus if an analysis has inherent bias (even if unintentional), much money and effort can be wasted trying to replicate or understand the results, particularly if the analysis is fundamental to our understanding of the universe. In this note we discuss the significant biases that can result from data binning schemes. As we will show, if data are binned such that they provide the best comparison to a particular (but incorrect) model, the resulting model parameter estimates when fitting to the binned data can be significantly biased, leading us to too often accept the model hypothesis when it is not in fact true. When using binned likelihood or least squares methods there is of course no a priori requirement that data bin sizes need to be constant, but we show that fitting to data grouped into variable width bins is particularly prone to produce biased results if the bin boundaries are chosen to optimize the comparison of the binned data to a wrong model. The degree of bias that can be achieved simply with variable binning can be surprisingly large. Fitting the data with an unbinned likelihood method, when possible to do so, is the best way for researchers to show that their analyses are not biased by binning effects. Failing that, equal bin widths should be employed as a cross-check of the fitting analysis whenever possible.

Ultrafast time-resolved spectroscopy of lead halide perovskite films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idowu, Mopelola A.; Yau, Sung H.; Varnavski, Oleg; Goodson, Theodore

2015-09-01

Recently, lead halide perovskites which are organic-inorganic hybrid structures, have been discovered to be highly efficient as light absorbers. Herein, we show the investigation of the excited state dynamics and emission properties of non-stoichiometric precursor formed lead halide perovskites grown by interdiffusion method using steady-state and time-resolved spectroscopic measurements. The influence of the different ratios of the non-stoichiometric precursor solution was examined. The observed photoluminescence properties were correlated with the femtosecond transient absorption measurements.

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE PAGES

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; ...

2017-11-06

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. Here, we quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. Our novel approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging frommore » 8 to roughly 150, to evaluate the ability to capture weather patterns across different seasons. Using 8 stations across the western U.S., one from each IECC climate zone, results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of ~4.0 °C with respect to a high-resolution gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to ~1.5 °C using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.5%. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20–40% bias of peak building loads during both summer and winter, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. Our approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. Here, we quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. Our novel approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging frommore » 8 to roughly 150, to evaluate the ability to capture weather patterns across different seasons. Using 8 stations across the western U.S., one from each IECC climate zone, results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of ~4.0 °C with respect to a high-resolution gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to ~1.5 °C using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.5%. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20–40% bias of peak building loads during both summer and winter, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. Our approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Impurity-induced anisotropic semiconductor-semimetal transition in monolayer biased black phosphorus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bui, D. H.; Yarmohammadi, Mohsen

2018-07-01

Taking into account the electron-impurity interaction within the continuum approximation of tight-binding model, the Born approximation, and the Green's function method, the main features of anisotropic electronic phase transition are investigated in monolayer biased black phosphorus (BP). To this end, we concentrated on the disordered electronic density of states (DOS), which gives useful information for electro-optical devices. Increasing the impurity concentration in both unbiased and biased impurity-infected single-layer BP, in addition to the decrease of the band gap, independent of the direction, leads to the midgap states and an extra Van Hove singularity inside and outside of the band gap, respectively. Furthermore, strong impurity scattering potentials lead to a semiconductor-semimetal transition and one more Van Hove singularity in x-direction of unbiased BP and surprisingly, this transition does not occur in biased BP. We found that there is no phase transition in y-direction. Since real applications require structures with modulated band gaps, we have studied the influence of different bias voltages on the disordered DOS in both directions, resulting in the increase of the band gap.

Ultrafast strong-field photoelectron emission from biased metal surfaces: exact solution to time-dependent Schrödinger Equation

PubMed Central

Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y. Y.

2016-01-01

Laser-driven ultrafast electron emission offers the possibility of manipulation and control of coherent electron motion in ultrashort spatiotemporal scales. Here, an analytical solution is constructed for the highly nonlinear electron emission from a dc biased metal surface illuminated by a single frequency laser, by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation exactly. The solution is valid for arbitrary combinations of dc electric field, laser electric field, laser frequency, metal work function and Fermi level. Various emission mechanisms, such as multiphoton absorption or emission, optical or dc field emission, are all included in this single formulation. The transition between different emission processes is analyzed in detail. The time-dependent emission current reveals that intense current modulation may be possible even with a low intensity laser, by merely increasing the applied dc bias. The results provide insights into the electron pulse generation and manipulation for many novel applications based on ultrafast laser-induced electron emission. PMID:26818710

Conservative Tests under Satisficing Models of Publication Bias.

PubMed

McCrary, Justin; Christensen, Garret; Fanelli, Daniele

2016-01-01

Publication bias leads consumers of research to observe a selected sample of statistical estimates calculated by producers of research. We calculate critical values for statistical significance that could help to adjust after the fact for the distortions created by this selection effect, assuming that the only source of publication bias is file drawer bias. These adjusted critical values are easy to calculate and differ from unadjusted critical values by approximately 50%-rather than rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 2, the analysis suggests rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 3. Samples of published social science research indicate that on average, across research fields, approximately 30% of published t-statistics fall between the standard and adjusted cutoffs.

Conservative Tests under Satisficing Models of Publication Bias

PubMed Central

McCrary, Justin; Christensen, Garret; Fanelli, Daniele

2016-01-01

Publication bias leads consumers of research to observe a selected sample of statistical estimates calculated by producers of research. We calculate critical values for statistical significance that could help to adjust after the fact for the distortions created by this selection effect, assuming that the only source of publication bias is file drawer bias. These adjusted critical values are easy to calculate and differ from unadjusted critical values by approximately 50%—rather than rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 2, the analysis suggests rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 3. Samples of published social science research indicate that on average, across research fields, approximately 30% of published t-statistics fall between the standard and adjusted cutoffs. PMID:26901834

Probabilistic postprocessing models for flow forecasts for a system of catchments and several lead times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn; Steinsland, Ingelin

2014-05-01

This study introduces a methodology for the construction of probabilistic inflow forecasts for multiple catchments and lead times, and investigates criterions for evaluation of multi-variate forecasts. A post-processing approach is used, and a Gaussian model is applied for transformed variables. The post processing model has two main components, the mean model and the dependency model. The mean model is used to estimate the marginal distributions for forecasted inflow for each catchment and lead time, whereas the dependency models was used to estimate the full multivariate distribution of forecasts, i.e. co-variances between catchments and lead times. In operational situations, it is a straightforward task to use the models to sample inflow ensembles which inherit the dependencies between catchments and lead times. The methodology was tested and demonstrated in the river systems linked to the Ulla-Førre hydropower complex in southern Norway, where simultaneous probabilistic forecasts for five catchments and ten lead times were constructed. The methodology exhibits sufficient flexibility to utilize deterministic flow forecasts from a numerical hydrological model as well as statistical forecasts such as persistent forecasts and sliding window climatology forecasts. It also deals with variation in the relative weights of these forecasts with both catchment and lead time. When evaluating predictive performance in original space using cross validation, the case study found that it is important to include the persistent forecast for the initial lead times and the hydrological forecast for medium-term lead times. Sliding window climatology forecasts become more important for the latest lead times. Furthermore, operationally important features in this case study such as heteroscedasticity, lead time varying between lead time dependency and lead time varying between catchment dependency are captured. Two criterions were used for evaluating the added value of the dependency

Social Anxiety and Biased Recall of Positive Information: It's Not the Content, It's the Valence.

PubMed

Glazier, Brianne L; Alden, Lynn E

2017-07-01

Cognitive theorists hypothesize that individuals with social anxiety are prone to memory biases such that event recall becomes more negative over time. With few exceptions, studies have focused primarily on changes in negative self-judgments. The current study examined whether memory for positive social events is also subject to recall bias. Undergraduate participants (N = 138) engaged in an unexpected public speaking task and received standardized positive or neutral feedback on their performance. They rated their memory of the received feedback following a 5-minute delay and again 1 week later. Results revealed that higher scores on social anxiety symptoms predicted significant reductions in the recalled valence of positive feedback over time, whereas no changes were observed for neutral feedback. The results suggest that social anxiety may lead to erosion in memory of positive events. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Why are you late? Investigating the role of time management in time-based prospective memory.

PubMed

Waldum, Emily R; McDaniel, Mark A

2016-08-01

Time-based prospective memory tasks (TBPM) are those that are to be performed at a specific future time. Contrary to typical laboratory TBPM tasks (e.g., hit the Z key every 5 min), many real-world TBPM tasks require more complex time-management processes. For instance, to attend an appointment on time, one must estimate the duration of the drive to the appointment and then use this estimate to create and execute a secondary TBPM intention (e.g., "I need to start driving by 1:30 to make my 2:00 appointment on time"). Future under- and overestimates of drive time can lead to inefficient TBPM performance with the former lending to missed appointments and the latter to long stints in the waiting room. Despite the common occurrence of complex TBPM tasks in everyday life, to date, no studies have investigated how components of time management, including time estimation, affect behavior in such complex TBPM tasks. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate timing biases in both older and younger adults and, further, to determine how such biases along with additional time management components including planning and plan fidelity influence complex TBPM performance. Results suggest for the first time that younger and older adults do not always utilize similar timing strategies, and as a result, can produce differential timing biases under the exact same environmental conditions. These timing biases, in turn, play a vital role in how efficiently both younger and older adults perform a later TBPM task that requires them to utilize their earlier time estimate. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Observation Impacts for Longer Forecast Lead-Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, R.; Gelaro, R.; Todling, R.

2013-12-01

Observation impact on forecasts evaluated using adjoint-based techniques (e.g. Langland and Baker, 2004) are limited by the validity of the assumptions underlying the forecasting model adjoint. Most applications of this approach have focused on deriving observation impacts on short-range forecasts (e.g. 24-hour) in part to stay well within linearization assumptions. The most widely used measure of observation impact relies on the availability of the analysis for verifying the forecasts. As pointed out by Gelaro et al. (2007), and more recently by Todling (2013), this introduces undesirable correlations in the measure that are likely to affect the resulting assessment of the observing system. Stappers and Barkmeijer (2012) introduced a technique that, in principle, allows extending the validity of tangent linear and corresponding adjoint models to longer lead-times, thereby reducing the correlations in the measures used for observation impact assessments. The methodology provides the means to better represent linearized models by making use of Gaussian quadrature relations to handle various underlying non-linear model trajectories. The formulation is exact for particular bi-linear dynamics; it corresponds to an approximation for general-type nonlinearities and must be tested for large atmospheric models. The present work investigates the approach of Stappers and Barkmeijer (2012)in the context of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The goal is to calculate observation impacts in the GEOS-5 ADAS for forecast lead-times of at least 48 hours in order to reduce the potential for undesirable correlations that occur at shorter forecast lead times. References [1]Langland, R. H., and N. L. Baker, 2004: Estimation of observation impact using the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation adjoint system. Tellus, 56A, 189-201. [2] Gelaro, R., Y. Zhu, and R. M. Errico, 2007: Examination of various

Fluency and belief bias in deductive reasoning: new indices for old effects

PubMed Central

Trippas, Dries; Handley, Simon J.; Verde, Michael F.

2014-01-01

Models based on signal detection theory (SDT) have occupied a prominent role in domains such as perception, categorization, and memory. Recent work by Dube et al. (2010) suggests that the framework may also offer important insights in the domain of deductive reasoning. Belief bias in reasoning has traditionally been examined using indices based on raw endorsement rates—indices that critics have claimed are highly problematic. We discuss a new set of SDT indices fit for the investigation belief bias and apply them to new data examining the effect of perceptual disfluency on belief bias in syllogisms. In contrast to the traditional approach, the SDT indices do not violate important statistical assumptions, resulting in a decreased Type 1 error rate. Based on analyses using these novel indices we demonstrate that perceptual disfluency leads to decreased reasoning accuracy, contrary to predictions. Disfluency also appears to eliminate the typical link found between cognitive ability and the effect of beliefs on accuracy. Finally, replicating previous work, we demonstrate that cognitive ability leads to an increase in reasoning accuracy and a decrease in the response bias component of belief bias. PMID:25009515

Comparing the cohort design and the nested case–control design in the presence of both time-invariant and time-dependent treatment and competing risks: bias and precision

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C; Anderson, Geoffrey M; Cigsar, Candemir; Gruneir, Andrea

2012-01-01

Purpose Observational studies using electronic administrative healthcare databases are often used to estimate the effects of treatments and exposures. Traditionally, a cohort design has been used to estimate these effects, but increasingly, studies are using a nested case–control (NCC) design. The relative statistical efficiency of these two designs has not been examined in detail. Methods We used Monte Carlo simulations to compare these two designs in terms of the bias and precision of effect estimates. We examined three different settings: (A) treatment occurred at baseline, and there was a single outcome of interest; (B) treatment was time varying, and there was a single outcome; and C treatment occurred at baseline, and there was a secondary event that competed with the primary event of interest. Comparisons were made of percentage bias, length of 95% confidence interval, and mean squared error (MSE) as a combined measure of bias and precision. Results In Setting A, bias was similar between designs, but the cohort design was more precise and had a lower MSE in all scenarios. In Settings B and C, the cohort design was more precise and had a lower MSE in all scenarios. In both Settings B and C, the NCC design tended to result in estimates with greater bias compared with the cohort design. Conclusions We conclude that in a range of settings and scenarios, the cohort design is superior in terms of precision and MSE. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22653805

Investigating diagnostic bias in autism spectrum conditions: An item response theory analysis of sex bias in the AQ-10.

PubMed

Murray, Aja Louise; Allison, Carrie; Smith, Paula L; Baron-Cohen, Simon; Booth, Tom; Auyeung, Bonnie

2017-05-01

Diagnostic bias is a concern in autism spectrum conditions (ASC) where prevalence and presentation differ by sex. To ensure that females with ASC are not under-identified, it is important that ASC screening tools do not systematically underestimate autistic traits in females relative to males. We evaluated whether the AQ-10, a brief screen for ASC recommended by the National Institute of Clinical Excellence in cases of suspected ASC, exhibits such a bias. Using an item response theory approach, we evaluated differential item functioning and differential test functioning. We found that although individual items showed some sex bias, these biases at times favored males and at other times favored females. Thus, at the level of test scores the item-level biases cancelled out to give an unbiased overall score. Results support the continued use of the AQ-10 sum score in its current form; however, suggest that caution should be exercised when interpreting responses to individual items. The nature of the item level biases could serve as a guide for future research into how ASC affects males and females differently. Autism Res 2017, 10: 790-800. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Biased four-point probe resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Vazquez, Valentin

2017-11-01

The implications of switching the current polarity in a four-point probe resistance measurement are presented. We demonstrate that, during the inversion of the applied current, any change in the voltage V produced by a continuous drop of the sample temperature T will induce a bias in the temperature-dependent DC resistance. The analytical expression for the bias is deduced and written in terms of the variations of the measured voltages with respect to T and by the variations of T with respect to time t. Experimental data measured on a superconducting Nb thin film confirm that the bias of the normal-state resistance monotonically increases with the cooling rate dT/dt while keeping fixed dV/dT; on the other hand, the bias increases with dV/dT, reaching values up to 13% with respect to the unbiased resistance obtained at room temperature.

The role of metadata and strategies to detect and control temporal data bias in environmental monitoring of soil contamination.

PubMed

Desaules, André

2012-11-01

It is crucial for environmental monitoring to fully control temporal bias, which is the distortion of real data evolution by varying bias through time. Temporal bias cannot be fully controlled by statistics alone but requires appropriate and sufficient metadata, which should be under rigorous and continuous quality assurance and control (QA/QC) to reliably document the degree of consistency of the monitoring system. All presented strategies to detect and control temporal data bias (QA/QC, harmonisation/homogenisation/standardisation, mass balance approach, use of tracers and analogues and control of changing boundary conditions) rely on metadata. The Will Rogers phenomenon, due to subsequent reclassification, is a particular source of temporal data bias introduced to environmental monitoring here. Sources and effects of temporal data bias are illustrated by examples from the Swiss soil monitoring network. The attempt to make a comprehensive compilation and assessment of required metadata for soil contamination monitoring reveals that most metadata are still far from being reliable. This leads to the conclusion that progress in environmental monitoring means further development of the concept of environmental metadata for the sake of temporal data bias control as a prerequisite for reliable interpretations and decisions.

Mapping Species Distributions with MAXENT Using a Geographically Biased Sample of Presence Data: A Performance Assessment of Methods for Correcting Sampling Bias

PubMed Central

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O.; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one “virtual” derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases. PMID:24818607

Experimentally induced chocolate craving leads to an attentional bias in increased distraction but not in speeded detection.

PubMed

Smeets, Elke; Roefs, Anne; Jansen, Anita

2009-12-01

In the present study, the causal influence of chocolate craving on attentional bias for chocolate-related information was examined by experimentally inducing chocolate craving in a sample of high trait chocolate cravers vs. low trait chocolate cravers. A sample of 35 high trait chocoholics and 33 low trait chocolate cravers were randomly assigned to either the exposure condition in which craving was manipulated or the non-exposure condition. To measure attentional bias, a pictorial version of the visual search paradigm [Smeets, E., Roefs, A., van Furth, E., & Jansen, A. (2008). Attentional bias for body and food in eating disorders: increased distraction, speeded detection, or both? Behaviour Research and Therapy, 46, 229-238] was used, assessing two components: distraction and detection. It was found that experimentally induced chocolate craving led to increased distraction by chocolate pictures in the high trait chocolate cravers, in comparison to the low trait chocolate cravers. Moreover, this measure of distraction correlated strongly with self-reported craving, but only in the chocoholics and in the exposure condition. In the non-exposure condition, high trait chocolate cravers showed speeded detection of chocolate pictures relative to non-chocoholics, but this component did not correlate with self-reported craving. It is concluded that experimentally induced craving for chocolate causes a bias in, specifically the increased distraction component of attention in high trait chocolate cravers.

Characterizing sampling and quality screening biases in infrared and microwave limb sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millán, Luis F.; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; von Clarmann, Thomas

2018-03-01

This study investigates orbital sampling biases and evaluates the additional impact caused by data quality screening for the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). MIPAS acts as a proxy for typical infrared limb emission sounders, while MLS acts as a proxy for microwave limb sounders. These biases were calculated for temperature and several trace gases by interpolating model fields to real sampling patterns and, additionally, screening those locations as directed by their corresponding quality criteria. Both instruments have dense uniform sampling patterns typical of limb emission sounders, producing almost identical sampling biases. However, there is a substantial difference between the number of locations discarded. MIPAS, as a mid-infrared instrument, is very sensitive to clouds, and measurements affected by them are thus rejected from the analysis. For example, in the tropics, the MIPAS yield is strongly affected by clouds, while MLS is mostly unaffected. The results show that upper-tropospheric sampling biases in zonally averaged data, for both instruments, can be up to 10 to 30 %, depending on the species, and up to 3 K for temperature. For MIPAS, the sampling reduction due to quality screening worsens the biases, leading to values as large as 30 to 100 % for the trace gases and expanding the 3 K bias region for temperature. This type of sampling bias is largely induced by the geophysical origins of the screening (e.g. clouds). Further, analysis of long-term time series reveals that these additional quality screening biases may affect the ability to accurately detect upper-tropospheric long-term changes using such data. In contrast, MLS data quality screening removes sufficiently few points that no additional bias is introduced, although its penetration is limited to the upper troposphere, while MIPAS may cover well into the mid-troposphere in cloud-free scenarios. We emphasize that the

Good practices for quantitative bias analysis.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L; Fox, Matthew P; MacLehose, Richard F; Maldonado, George; McCandless, Lawrence C; Greenland, Sander

2014-12-01

Quantitative bias analysis serves several objectives in epidemiological research. First, it provides a quantitative estimate of the direction, magnitude and uncertainty arising from systematic errors. Second, the acts of identifying sources of systematic error, writing down models to quantify them, assigning values to the bias parameters and interpreting the results combat the human tendency towards overconfidence in research results, syntheses and critiques and the inferences that rest upon them. Finally, by suggesting aspects that dominate uncertainty in a particular research result or topic area, bias analysis can guide efficient allocation of sparse research resources. The fundamental methods of bias analyses have been known for decades, and there have been calls for more widespread use for nearly as long. There was a time when some believed that bias analyses were rarely undertaken because the methods were not widely known and because automated computing tools were not readily available to implement the methods. These shortcomings have been largely resolved. We must, therefore, contemplate other barriers to implementation. One possibility is that practitioners avoid the analyses because they lack confidence in the practice of bias analysis. The purpose of this paper is therefore to describe what we view as good practices for applying quantitative bias analysis to epidemiological data, directed towards those familiar with the methods. We focus on answering questions often posed to those of us who advocate incorporation of bias analysis methods into teaching and research. These include the following. When is bias analysis practical and productive? How does one select the biases that ought to be addressed? How does one select a method to model biases? How does one assign values to the parameters of a bias model? How does one present and interpret a bias analysis?. We hope that our guide to good practices for conducting and presenting bias analyses will encourage

The influence of anticipatory processing on attentional biases in social anxiety.

PubMed

Mills, Adam C; Grant, DeMond M; Judah, Matt R; White, Evan J

2014-09-01

Research on cognitive theories of social anxiety disorder (SAD) has identified individual processes that influence this condition (e.g., cognitive biases, repetitive negative thinking), but few studies have attempted to examine the interaction between these processes. For example, attentional biases and anticipatory processing are theoretically related and have been found to influence symptoms of SAD, but they rarely have been studied together (i.e., Clark & Wells, 1995). Therefore, the goal of the current study was to examine the effect of anticipatory processing on attentional bias for internal (i.e., heart rate feedback) and external (i.e., emotional faces) threat information. A sample of 59 participants high (HSA) and low (LSA) in social anxiety symptoms engaged in a modified dot-probe task prior to (Time 1) and after (Time 2) an anticipatory processing or distraction task. HSAs who anticipated experienced an increase in attentional bias for internal information from Time 1 to Time 2, whereas HSAs in the distraction condition and LSAs in either condition experienced no changes. No changes in biases were found for HSAs for external biases, but LSAs who engaged in the distraction task became less avoidant of emotional faces from Time 1 to Time 2. This suggests that anticipatory processing results in an activation of attentional biases for physiological information as suggested by Clark and Wells. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The SDT Model of Belief Bias: Complexity, Time, and Cognitive Ability Mediate the Effects of Believability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trippas, Dries; Handley, Simon J.; Verde, Michael F.

2013-01-01

When people evaluate conclusions, they are often influenced by prior beliefs. Prevalent theories claim that "belief bias" affects the quality of syllogistic reasoning. However, recent work by Dube, Rotello, and Heit (2010) has suggested that belief bias may be a simple response bias. In Experiment 1, receiver operating characteristic…

Neural time course of threat-related attentional bias and interference in panic and obsessive-compulsive disorders.

PubMed

Thomas, Susan J; Gonsalvez, Craig J; Johnstone, Stuart J

2013-09-01

Attentional biases to threat are considered central to anxiety disorders, however physiological evidence of their nature and time course is lacking. Event-related potentials (ERPs) characterized sensory and cognitive changes while 20 outpatients with panic disorder (PD), 20 with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and 20 healthy controls (HCs) responded to the color (emotional Stroop task) or meaning of threatening and neutral stimuli. ERPs indicated larger P1 amplitude and longer N1 latency in OCD, and shorter P1 latency in PD, to threatening (versus neutral) stimuli, across instructions to attend to, or ignore, threat content. Emotional Stroop interference correlated with phobic anxiety and was significant in PD. Participants with emotional Stroop interference had augmented P1 and P3 amplitudes to threat (versus neutral) stimuli when color-naming. The results suggest early attentional biases to threat in both disorders, with disorder-specific characteristics. ERPs supported preferential early attentional capture and cognitive elaboration hypotheses of emotional Stroop interference. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adult Lead Exposure: Time for Change

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Brian S.; Hu, Howard

2007-01-01

We have assembled this mini-monograph on adult lead exposure to provide guidance to clinicians and public health professionals, to summarize recent thinking on lead biomarkers and their relevance to epidemiologic research, and to review two key lead-related outcomes, namely, cardiovascular and cognitive. The lead standards of the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration are woefully out of date given the growing evidence of the health effects of lead at levels of exposure previously thought to be safe, particularly newly recognized persistent or progressive effects of cumulative dose. The growing body of scientific evidence suggests that occupational standards should limit recent dose to prevent the acute effects of lead and separately limit cumulative dose to prevent the chronic effects of lead. We hope this mini-monograph will motivate renewed discussion of ways to protect lead-exposed adults in the United States and around the world. PMID:17431498

Biased Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Donald Ross

This paper is concerned with the accusations made by such groups as the Association of Black Psychologists in their call for a moratorium on testing, that standardized tests are biased. A biased test measures one trait in one group of people but a different trait in a second group. Evidence about the amount of bias in tests is thin. Bias must be…

Biases in GNSS-Data Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaer, S. C.; Dach, R.; Lutz, S.; Meindl, M.; Beutler, G.

2010-12-01

Within the Global Positioning System (GPS) traditionally different types of pseudo-range measurements (P-code, C/A-code) are available on the first frequency that are tracked by the receivers with different technologies. For that reason, P1-C1 and P1-P2 Differential Code Biases (DCB) need to be considered in a GPS data processing with a mix of different receiver types. Since the Block IIR-M series of GPS satellites also provide C/A-code on the second frequency, P2-C2 DCB need to be added to the list of biases for maintenance. Potential quarter-cycle biases between different phase observables (specifically L2P and L2C) are another issue. When combining GNSS (currently GPS and GLONASS), careful consideration of inter-system biases (ISB) is indispensable, in particular when an adequate combination of individual GLONASS clock correction results from different sources (using, e.g., different software packages) is intended. Facing the GPS and GLONASS modernization programs and the upcoming GNSS, like the European Galileo and the Chinese Compass, an increasing number of types of biases is expected. The Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) is monitoring these GPS and GLONASS related biases for a long time based on RINEX files of the tracking network of the International GNSS Service (IGS) and in the frame of the data processing as one of the global analysis centers of the IGS. Within the presentation we give an overview on the stability of the biases based on the monitoring. Biases derived from different sources are compared. Finally, we give an outlook on the potential handling of such biases with the big variety of signals and systems expected in the future.

Economic inequality is linked to biased self-perception.

PubMed

Loughnan, Steve; Kuppens, Peter; Allik, Jüri; Balazs, Katalin; de Lemus, Soledad; Dumont, Kitty; Gargurevich, Rafael; Hidegkuti, Istvan; Leidner, Bernhard; Matos, Lennia; Park, Joonha; Realo, Anu; Shi, Junqi; Sojo, Victor Eduardo; Tong, Yuk-Yue; Vaes, Jeroen; Verduyn, Philippe; Yeung, Victoria; Haslam, Nick

2011-10-01

People's self-perception biases often lead them to see themselves as better than the average person (a phenomenon known as self-enhancement). This bias varies across cultures, and variations are typically explained using cultural variables, such as individualism versus collectivism. We propose that socioeconomic differences among societies--specifically, relative levels of economic inequality--play an important but unrecognized role in how people evaluate themselves. Evidence for self-enhancement was found in 15 diverse nations, but the magnitude of the bias varied. Greater self-enhancement was found in societies with more income inequality, and income inequality predicted cross-cultural differences in self-enhancement better than did individualism/collectivism. These results indicate that macrosocial differences in the distribution of economic goods are linked to microsocial processes of perceiving the self.

AGCM Biases in Evaporation Regime: Impacts on Soil Moisture Memory and Land-Atmosphere Feedback

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahanama, Sarith P. P.; Koster, Randal D.

2005-01-01

Because precipitation and net radiation in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are typically biased relative to observations, the simulated evaporative regime of a region may be biased, with consequent negative effects on the AGCM s ability to translate an initialized soil moisture anomaly into an improved seasonal prediction. These potential problems are investigated through extensive offline analyses with the Mosaic land surface model (LSM). We first forced the LSM globally with a 15-year observations-based dataset. We then repeated the simulation after imposing a representative set of GCM climate biases onto the forcings - the observational forcings were scaled so that their mean seasonal cycles matched those simulated by the NSIPP-1 (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) AGCM over the same period-The AGCM s climate biases do indeed lead to significant biases in evaporative regime in certain regions, with the expected impacts on soil moisture memory timescales. Furthermore, the offline simulations suggest that the biased forcing in the AGCM should contribute to overestimated feedback in certain parts of North America - parts already identified in previous studies as having excessive feedback. The present study thus supports the notion that the reduction of climate biases in the AGCM will lead to more appropriate translations of soil moisture initialization into seasonal prediction skill.

Smoothed Biasing Forces Yield Unbiased Free Energies with the Extended-System Adaptive Biasing Force Method

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We report a theoretical description and numerical tests of the extended-system adaptive biasing force method (eABF), together with an unbiased estimator of the free energy surface from eABF dynamics. Whereas the original ABF approach uses its running estimate of the free energy gradient as the adaptive biasing force, eABF is built on the idea that the exact free energy gradient is not necessary for efficient exploration, and that it is still possible to recover the exact free energy separately with an appropriate estimator. eABF does not directly bias the collective coordinates of interest, but rather fictitious variables that are harmonically coupled to them; therefore is does not require second derivative estimates, making it easily applicable to a wider range of problems than ABF. Furthermore, the extended variables present a smoother, coarse-grain-like sampling problem on a mollified free energy surface, leading to faster exploration and convergence. We also introduce CZAR, a simple, unbiased free energy estimator from eABF trajectories. eABF/CZAR converges to the physical free energy surface faster than standard ABF for a wide range of parameters. PMID:27959559

Methodological issues in current practice may lead to bias in the development of biomarker combinations for predicting acute kidney injury.

PubMed

Meisner, Allison; Kerr, Kathleen F; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G; Parikh, Chirag R

2016-02-01

Individual biomarkers of renal injury are only modestly predictive of acute kidney injury (AKI). Using multiple biomarkers has the potential to improve predictive capacity. In this systematic review, statistical methods of articles developing biomarker combinations to predict AKI were assessed. We identified and described three potential sources of bias (resubstitution bias, model selection bias, and bias due to center differences) that may compromise the development of biomarker combinations. Fifteen studies reported developing kidney injury biomarker combinations for the prediction of AKI after cardiac surgery (8 articles), in the intensive care unit (4 articles), or other settings (3 articles). All studies were susceptible to at least one source of bias and did not account for or acknowledge the bias. Inadequate reporting often hindered our assessment of the articles. We then evaluated, when possible (7 articles), the performance of published biomarker combinations in the TRIBE-AKI cardiac surgery cohort. Predictive performance was markedly attenuated in six out of seven cases. Thus, deficiencies in analysis and reporting are avoidable, and care should be taken to provide accurate estimates of risk prediction model performance. Hence, rigorous design, analysis, and reporting of biomarker combination studies are essential to realizing the promise of biomarkers in clinical practice.

Camera Perspective Bias in Videotaped Confessions: Evidence that Visual Attention Is a Mediator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ware, Lezlee J.; Lassiter, G. Daniel; Patterson, Stephen M.; Ransom, Michael R.

2008-01-01

Several experiments have demonstrated a "camera perspective bias" in evaluations of videotaped confessions: videotapes with the camera focused on the suspect lead to judgments of greater voluntariness than alternative presentation formats. The present research investigated potential mediators of this bias. Using eye tracking to measure visual…

Cognitive neuroscience. Unlearning implicit social biases during sleep.

PubMed

Hu, Xiaoqing; Antony, James W; Creery, Jessica D; Vargas, Iliana M; Bodenhausen, Galen V; Paller, Ken A

2015-05-29

Although people may endorse egalitarianism and tolerance, social biases can remain operative and drive harmful actions in an unconscious manner. Here, we investigated training to reduce implicit racial and gender bias. Forty participants processed counterstereotype information paired with one sound for each type of bias. Biases were reduced immediately after training. During subsequent slow-wave sleep, one sound was unobtrusively presented to each participant, repeatedly, to reactivate one type of training. Corresponding bias reductions were fortified in comparison with the social bias not externally reactivated during sleep. This advantage remained 1 week later, the magnitude of which was associated with time in slow-wave and rapid-eye-movement sleep after training. We conclude that memory reactivation during sleep enhances counterstereotype training and that maintaining a bias reduction is sleep-dependent. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Velocity bias in the distribution of dark matter halos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldauf, Tobias; Desjacques, Vincent; Seljak, Uroš

2015-12-01

The standard formalism for the coevolution of halos and dark matter predicts that any initial halo velocity bias rapidly decays to zero. We argue that, when the purpose is to compute statistics like power spectra etc., the coupling in the momentum conservation equation for the biased tracers must be modified. Our new formulation predicts the constancy in time of any statistical halo velocity bias present in the initial conditions, in agreement with peak theory. We test this prediction by studying the evolution of a conserved halo population in N -body simulations. We establish that the initial simulated halo density and velocity statistics show distinct features of the peak model and, thus, deviate from the simple local Lagrangian bias. We demonstrate, for the first time, that the time evolution of their velocity is in tension with the rapid decay expected in the standard approach.

Optimising seasonal streamflow forecast lead time for operational decision making in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Q. J.; Zhou, Senlin; Feikema, Paul

2016-10-01

Statistical seasonal forecasts of 3-month streamflow totals are released in Australia by the Bureau of Meteorology and updated on a monthly basis. The forecasts are often released in the second week of the forecast period, due to the onerous forecast production process. The current service relies on models built using data for complete calendar months, meaning the forecast production process cannot begin until the first day of the forecast period. Somehow, the bureau needs to transition to a service that provides forecasts before the beginning of the forecast period; timelier forecast release will become critical as sub-seasonal (monthly) forecasts are developed. Increasing the forecast lead time to one month ahead is not considered a viable option for Australian catchments that typically lack any predictability associated with snowmelt. The bureau's forecasts are built around Bayesian joint probability models that have antecedent streamflow, rainfall and climate indices as predictors. In this study, we adapt the modelling approach so that forecasts have any number of days of lead time. Daily streamflow and sea surface temperatures are used to develop predictors based on 28-day sliding windows. Forecasts are produced for 23 forecast locations with 0-14- and 21-day lead time. The forecasts are assessed in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) skill score and reliability metrics. CRPS skill scores, on average, reduce monotonically with increase in days of lead time, although both positive and negative differences are observed. Considering only skilful forecast locations, CRPS skill scores at 7-day lead time are reduced on average by 4 percentage points, with differences largely contained within +5 to -15 percentage points. A flexible forecasting system that allows for any number of days of lead time could benefit Australian seasonal streamflow forecast users by allowing more time for forecasts to be disseminated, comprehended and made use of prior to

Ion acceleration in a helicon source due to the self-bias effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiebold, Matt; Sung, Yung-Ta; Scharer, John E.

2012-05-15

Time-averaged plasma potential differences up to 165 V over several hundred Debye lengths are observed in low pressure (p{sub n} < 1 mTorr) expanding argon plasmas in the Madison Helicon eXperiment (MadHeX). The potential gradient leads to ion acceleration greater than that predicted by ambipolar expansion, exceeding E{sub i} Almost-Equal-To 7 kT{sub e} in some cases. RF power up to 500 W at 13.56 MHz is supplied to a half-turn, double-helix antenna in the presence of a nozzle magnetic field, adjustable up to 1 kG. A retarding potential analyzer (RPA) measures the ion energy distribution function (IEDF) and a sweptmore » emissive probe measures the plasma potential. Single and double probes measure the electron density and temperature. Two distinct mode hops, the capacitive-inductive (E-H) and inductive-helicon (H-W) transitions, are identified by jumps in density as RF power is increased. In the capacitive (E) mode, large fluctuations of the plasma potential (V{sub p-p} Greater-Than-Or-Equivalent-To 140V, V{sub p-p}/V{sub p} Almost-Equal-To 150%) exist at the RF frequency and its harmonics. The more mobile electrons can easily respond to RF-timescale gradients in the plasma potential whereas the inertially constrained ions cannot, leading to an initial flux imbalance and formation of a self-bias voltage between the source and expansion chambers. In the capacitive mode, the ion acceleration is not well described by an ambipolar relation, while in the inductive and helicon modes the ion acceleration more closely follows an ambipolar relation. The scaling of the potential gradient with the argon flow rate and RF power are investigated, with the largest potential gradients observed for the lowest flow rates in the capacitive mode. The magnitude of the self-bias voltage agrees with that predicted for RF self-bias at a wall. Rapid fluctuations in the plasma potential result in a time-dependent axial electron flux that acts to 'neutralize' the accelerated ion

Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, J. J.; Rayner, N. A.; Smith, R. O.; Parker, D. E.; Saunby, M.

2011-07-01

Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time-varying biases in estimates of global and regional average sea surface temperature. The size of the biases arising from these changes are estimated and their uncertainties evaluated. The estimated biases and their associated uncertainties are largest during the period immediately following the Second World War, reflecting the rapid and incompletely documented changes in shipping and data availability at the time. Adjustments have been applied to reduce these effects in gridded data sets of sea surface temperature and the results are presented as a set of interchangeable realizations. Uncertainties of estimated trends in global and regional average sea surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea surface temperatures. Despite this, trends over the twentieth century remain qualitatively consistent.

Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; van Loon, E Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K; Nolet, Bart A; van der Jeugd, Henk P

2017-09-01

A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally missed by observers or observational devices. These time series are not restricted to behavioral protocols, but can be any cyclic or recurring process where discrete outcomes are observed. Undetected events cause biased inferences on the process of interest, and statistical analyses are needed that can identify and correct the compromised detection processes. Missed observations in time series lead to observed time intervals between events at multiples of the true inter-event time, which conveys information on their detection probability. We derive the theoretical probability density function for observed intervals between events that includes a probability of missed detection. Methodology and software tools are provided for analysis of event data with potential observation bias and its removal. The methodology was applied to simulation data and a case study of defecation rate estimation in geese, which is commonly used to estimate their digestive throughput and energetic uptake, or to calculate goose usage of a feeding site from dropping density. Simulations indicate that at a moderate chance to miss arrival events ( p  = 0.3), uncorrected arrival intervals were biased upward by up to a factor 3, while parameter values corrected for missed observations were within 1% of their true simulated value. A field case study shows that not accounting for missed observations leads to substantial underestimates of the true defecation rate in geese, and spurious rate differences between sites, which are introduced by differences in observational conditions. These results show that the derived methodology can be used to effectively remove observational biases in time-ordered event

Ghrelin and motilin receptor agonists: time to introduce bias into drug design.

PubMed

Sanger, G J

2014-02-01

Ghrelin and motilin receptor agonists increase gastric motility and are attractive drug targets. However, 14 years after the receptors were described (18-24 years since ligands became available) the inactivity of the ghrelin agonist TZP-102 in patients with gastroparesis joins the list of unsuccessful motilin agonists. Fundamental questions must be asked. Pustovit et al., have now shown that the ghrelin agonist ulimorelin evokes prolonged increases in rat colorectal propulsion yet responses to other ghrelin agonists fade. Similarly, different motilin agonists induce short- or long-lasting effects in a cell-dependent manner. Together, these and other data create the hypothesis that the receptors can be induced to preferentially signal ('biased agonism') via particular pathways to evoke different responses with therapeutic advantages/disadvantages. Biased agonism has been demonstrated for ghrelin. Are motilin agonists which cause long-lasting facilitation of human stomach cholinergic function (compared with motilin) biased agonists (e.g., camicinal, under development for patients with gastric hypo-motility)? For ghrelin, additional complications exist because the therapeutic aims/mechanisms of action are uncertain, making it difficult to select the best (biased) agonist. Will ghrelin agonists be useful treatments of nausea and/or as suggested by Pustovit et al., chronic constipation? How does ghrelin increase gastric motility? As gastroparesis symptoms poorly correlate with delayed gastric emptying (yet gastro-prokinetic drugs can provide relief: e.g., low-dose erythromycin), would low doses of ghrelin and motilin agonists relieve symptoms simply by restoring neuromuscular rhythm? These questions on design and functions need addressing if ghrelin and motilin agonists are to reach patients as drugs. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of kinetic context in apparent biased agonism at GPCRs

PubMed Central

Klein Herenbrink, Carmen; Sykes, David A.; Donthamsetti, Prashant; Canals, Meritxell; Coudrat, Thomas; Shonberg, Jeremy; Scammells, Peter J.; Capuano, Ben; Sexton, Patrick M.; Charlton, Steven J.; Javitch, Jonathan A.; Christopoulos, Arthur; Lane, J. Robert

2016-01-01

Biased agonism describes the ability of ligands to stabilize different conformations of a GPCR linked to distinct functional outcomes and offers the prospect of designing pathway-specific drugs that avoid on-target side effects. This mechanism is usually inferred from pharmacological data with the assumption that the confounding influences of observational (that is, assay dependent) and system (that is, cell background dependent) bias are excluded by experimental design and analysis. Here we reveal that ‘kinetic context', as determined by ligand-binding kinetics and the temporal pattern of receptor-signalling processes, can have a profound influence on the apparent bias of a series of agonists for the dopamine D2 receptor and can even lead to reversals in the direction of bias. We propose that kinetic context must be acknowledged in the design and interpretation of studies of biased agonism. PMID:26905976

Health risk perception, optimistic bias, and personal satisfaction.

PubMed

Bränström, Richard; Brandberg, Yvonne

2010-01-01

To examine change in risk perception and optimistic bias concerning behavior-linked health threats and environmental health threats between adolescence and young adulthood and how these factors related to personal satisfaction. In 1996 and 2002, 1624 adolescents responded to a mailed questionnaire. Adolescents showed strong positive optimistic bias concerning behaviorlinked risks, and this optimistic bias increased with age. Increase in optimistic bias over time predicted increase in personal satisfaction. The capacity to process and perceive potential threats in a positive manner might be a valuable human ability positively influencing personal satisfaction and well-being.

Biased Dropout and Crossmap Dropout: Learning towards effective Dropout regularization in convolutional neural network.

PubMed

Poernomo, Alvin; Kang, Dae-Ki

2018-08-01

Training a deep neural network with a large number of parameters often leads to overfitting problem. Recently, Dropout has been introduced as a simple, yet effective regularization approach to combat overfitting in such models. Although Dropout has shown remarkable results on many deep neural network cases, its actual effect on CNN has not been thoroughly explored. Moreover, training a Dropout model will significantly increase the training time as it takes longer time to converge than a non-Dropout model with the same architecture. To deal with these issues, we address Biased Dropout and Crossmap Dropout, two novel approaches of Dropout extension based on the behavior of hidden units in CNN model. Biased Dropout divides the hidden units in a certain layer into two groups based on their magnitude and applies different Dropout rate to each group appropriately. Hidden units with higher activation value, which give more contributions to the network final performance, will be retained by a lower Dropout rate, while units with lower activation value will be exposed to a higher Dropout rate to compensate the previous part. The second approach is Crossmap Dropout, which is an extension of the regular Dropout in convolution layer. Each feature map in a convolution layer has a strong correlation between each other, particularly in every identical pixel location in each feature map. Crossmap Dropout tries to maintain this important correlation yet at the same time break the correlation between each adjacent pixel with respect to all feature maps by applying the same Dropout mask to all feature maps, so that all pixels or units in equivalent positions in each feature map will be either dropped or active during training. Our experiment with various benchmark datasets shows that our approaches provide better generalization than the regular Dropout. Moreover, our Biased Dropout takes faster time to converge during training phase, suggesting that assigning noise appropriately in

Mood volatility with rumination but neither attentional nor interpretation biases in chronic fatigue syndrome.

PubMed

Martin, Maryanne; Alexeeva, Iana

2010-11-01

This study tested whether (1) chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) individuals have a bias in the initial orientation of attention to illness-related information, which is enhanced by rumination. (2) CFS individuals have an illness interpretation bias (IB) in their early automatic processing of ambiguous information. (3) CFS individuals experience a greater degree of mood fluctuation following rumination and distraction inductions. Thirty-three CFS participants who had received a medical practitioner's diagnosis of CFS were compared to 33 healthy matched controls on an exogenous cueing task and a lexical decision task. All participants underwent either a rumination or distraction induction. They then completed an exogenous cueing task to assess bias to illness and social threat compared with neutral stimuli, as well as a lexical decision task to assess their interpretation of ambiguous words having illness, social threat, or neutral interpretations. Reaction time data revealed that CFS individuals did not have an attentional bias (AB) in the initial orientation of attention to illness-related material. Nor was there an IB towards illness in CFS individual's automatic response to ambiguous information. However, as hypothesized, CFS individuals showed a greater degree of mood fluctuation following the rumination/distraction induction. Rumination and distraction lead to greater mood volatility in CFS individuals than in controls, but not to attentional nor interpretation biases in the early automatic stages of information processing in CFS individuals.

Interrupted time series analysis of children's blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York.

PubMed

Shao, Liyang; Zhang, Lianjun; Zhen, Zhen

2017-01-01

Children's blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children's blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children's BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children's blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children's BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children's blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children's BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis.

Standardized mean differences cause funnel plot distortion in publication bias assessments.

PubMed

Zwetsloot, Peter-Paul; Van Der Naald, Mira; Sena, Emily S; Howells, David W; IntHout, Joanna; De Groot, Joris Ah; Chamuleau, Steven Aj; MacLeod, Malcolm R; Wever, Kimberley E

2017-09-08

Meta-analyses are increasingly used for synthesis of evidence from biomedical research, and often include an assessment of publication bias based on visual or analytical detection of asymmetry in funnel plots. We studied the influence of different normalisation approaches, sample size and intervention effects on funnel plot asymmetry, using empirical datasets and illustrative simulations. We found that funnel plots of the Standardized Mean Difference (SMD) plotted against the standard error (SE) are susceptible to distortion, leading to overestimation of the existence and extent of publication bias. Distortion was more severe when the primary studies had a small sample size and when an intervention effect was present. We show that using the Normalised Mean Difference measure as effect size (when possible), or plotting the SMD against a sample size-based precision estimate, are more reliable alternatives. We conclude that funnel plots using the SMD in combination with the SE are unsuitable for publication bias assessments and can lead to false-positive results.

Standardized mean differences cause funnel plot distortion in publication bias assessments

PubMed Central

Van Der Naald, Mira; Sena, Emily S; Howells, David W; IntHout, Joanna; De Groot, Joris AH; Chamuleau, Steven AJ; MacLeod, Malcolm R

2017-01-01

Meta-analyses are increasingly used for synthesis of evidence from biomedical research, and often include an assessment of publication bias based on visual or analytical detection of asymmetry in funnel plots. We studied the influence of different normalisation approaches, sample size and intervention effects on funnel plot asymmetry, using empirical datasets and illustrative simulations. We found that funnel plots of the Standardized Mean Difference (SMD) plotted against the standard error (SE) are susceptible to distortion, leading to overestimation of the existence and extent of publication bias. Distortion was more severe when the primary studies had a small sample size and when an intervention effect was present. We show that using the Normalised Mean Difference measure as effect size (when possible), or plotting the SMD against a sample size-based precision estimate, are more reliable alternatives. We conclude that funnel plots using the SMD in combination with the SE are unsuitable for publication bias assessments and can lead to false-positive results. PMID:28884685

Seasonal and circadian biases in bird tracking with solar GPS-tags.

PubMed

Silva, Rafa; Afán, Isabel; Gil, Juan A; Bustamante, Javier

2017-01-01

Global Positioning System (GPS) tags are nowadays widely used in wildlife tracking. This geolocation technique can suffer from fix loss biases due to poor satellite GPS geometry, that result in tracking data gaps leading to wrong research conclusions. In addition, new solar-powered GPS tags deployed on birds can suffer from a new "battery drain bias" currently ignored in movement ecology analyses. We use a GPS tracking dataset of bearded vultures (Gypaetus barbatus), tracked for several years with solar GPS tags, to evaluate the causes and triggers of fix and data retrieval loss biases. We compare two models of solar GPS tags using different data retrieval systems (Argos vs GSM-GPRS), and programmed with different duty cycles. Neither of the models was able to accomplish the duty cycle programed initially. Fix and data retrieval loss rates were always greater than expected, and showed non-random gaps in GPS locations. Number of fixes per month of tracking was a bad criterion to identify tags with smaller biases. Fix-loss rates were four times higher due to battery drain than due to poor GPS satellite geometry. Both tag models were biased due to the uneven solar energy available for the recharge of the tag throughout the annual cycle, resulting in greater fix-loss rates in winter compared to summer. In addition, we suggest that the bias found along the diurnal cycle is linked to a complex three-factor interaction of bird flight behavior, topography and fix interval. More fixes were lost when vultures were perching compared to flying, in rugged versus flat topography. But long fix-intervals caused greater loss of fixes in dynamic (flying) versus static situations (perching). To conclude, we emphasize the importance of evaluating fix-loss bias in current tracking projects, and deploying GPS tags that allow remote duty cycle updates so that the most appropriate fix and data retrieval intervals can be selected.

You're Biased

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paterson, Jim

2017-01-01

Like it or not, research shows time and again that despite best intentions, assumptions are made about others--judgments based on sweeping cultural or racial stereotypes, preconceptions parents quietly fostered, or even someone's clothing style or resemblance to a middle school bully. In an effort to find a solution to implicit bias, researchers…

Attentional bias to briefly presented emotional distractors follows a slow time course in visual cortex.

PubMed

Müller, Matthias M; Andersen, Søren K; Hindi Attar, Catherine

2011-11-02

A central controversy in the field of attention is how the brain deals with emotional distractors and to what extent they capture attentional processing resources reflexively due to their inherent significance for guidance of adaptive behavior and survival. Especially, the time course of competitive interactions in early visual areas and whether masking of briefly presented emotional stimuli can inhibit biasing of processing resources in these areas is currently unknown. We recorded frequency-tagged potentials evoked by a flickering target detection task in the foreground of briefly presented emotional or neutral pictures that were followed by a mask in human subjects. We observed greater competition for processing resources in early visual cortical areas with shortly presented emotional relative to neutral pictures ~275 ms after picture offset. This was paralleled by a reduction of target detection rates in trials with emotional pictures ~400 ms after picture offset. Our finding that briefly presented emotional distractors are able to bias attention well after their offset provides evidence for a rather slow feedback or reentrant neural competition mechanism for emotional distractors that continues after the offset of the emotional stimulus.

Sympathetic bias.

PubMed

Levy, David M; Peart, Sandra J

2008-06-01

We wish to deal with investigator bias in a statistical context. We sketch how a textbook solution to the problem of "outliers" which avoids one sort of investigator bias, creates the temptation for another sort. We write down a model of the approbation seeking statistician who is tempted by sympathy for client to violate the disciplinary standards. We give a simple account of one context in which we might expect investigator bias to flourish. Finally, we offer tentative suggestions to deal with the problem of investigator bias which follow from our account. As we have given a very sparse and stylized account of investigator bias, we ask what might be done to overcome this limitation.

Exploration properties of biased evanescent random walkers on a one-dimensional lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esguerra, Jose Perico; Reyes, Jelian

2017-08-01

We investigate the combined effects of bias and evanescence on the characteristics of random walks on a one-dimensional lattice. We calculate the time-dependent return probability, eventual return probability, conditional mean return time, and the time-dependent mean number of visited sites of biased immortal and evanescent discrete-time random walkers on a one-dimensional lattice. We then extend the calculations to the case of a continuous-time step-coupled biased evanescent random walk on a one-dimensional lattice with an exponential waiting time distribution.

Bias modification training can alter approach bias and chocolate consumption.

PubMed

Schumacher, Sophie E; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2016-01-01

Recent evidence has demonstrated that bias modification training has potential to reduce cognitive biases for attractive targets and affect health behaviours. The present study investigated whether cognitive bias modification training could be applied to reduce approach bias for chocolate and affect subsequent chocolate consumption. A sample of 120 women (18-27 years) were randomly assigned to an approach-chocolate condition or avoid-chocolate condition, in which they were trained to approach or avoid pictorial chocolate stimuli, respectively. Training had the predicted effect on approach bias, such that participants trained to approach chocolate demonstrated an increased approach bias to chocolate stimuli whereas participants trained to avoid such stimuli showed a reduced bias. Further, participants trained to avoid chocolate ate significantly less of a chocolate muffin in a subsequent taste test than participants trained to approach chocolate. Theoretically, results provide support for the dual process model's conceptualisation of consumption as being driven by implicit processes such as approach bias. In practice, approach bias modification may be a useful component of interventions designed to curb the consumption of unhealthy foods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating interevent time distributions from finite observation periods in communication networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivelä, Mikko; Porter, Mason A.

2015-11-01

A diverse variety of processes—including recurrent disease episodes, neuron firing, and communication patterns among humans—can be described using interevent time (IET) distributions. Many such processes are ongoing, although event sequences are only available during a finite observation window. Because the observation time window is more likely to begin or end during long IETs than during short ones, the analysis of such data is susceptible to a bias induced by the finite observation period. In this paper, we illustrate how this length bias is born and how it can be corrected without assuming any particular shape for the IET distribution. To do this, we model event sequences using stationary renewal processes, and we formulate simple heuristics for determining the severity of the bias. To illustrate our results, we focus on the example of empirical communication networks, which are temporal networks that are constructed from communication events. The IET distributions of such systems guide efforts to build models of human behavior, and the variance of IETs is very important for estimating the spreading rate of information in networks of temporal interactions. We analyze several well-known data sets from the literature, and we find that the resulting bias can lead to systematic underestimates of the variance in the IET distributions and that correcting for the bias can lead to qualitatively different results for the tails of the IET distributions.

Cognitive and neural mechanisms of decision biases in recognition memory.

PubMed

Windmann, Sabine; Urbach, Thomas P; Kutas, Marta

2002-08-01

In recognition memory tasks, stimuli can be classified as "old" either on the basis of accurate memory or a bias to respond "old", yet bias has received little attention in the cognitive neuroscience literature. Here we examined the pattern and timing of bias-related effects in event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to determine whether the bias is linked more to memory retrieval or to response verification processes. Participants were divided into a High Bias and a Low Bias group according to their bias to respond "old". These groups did not differ in recognition accuracy or in the ERP pattern to items that actually were old versus new (Objective Old/New Effect). However, when the old/new distinction was based on each subject's perspective, i.e. when items judged "old" were compared with those judged "new" (Subjective Old/New Effect), significant group differences were observed over prefrontal sites with a timing (300-500 ms poststimulus) more consistent with bias acting early on memory retrieval processes than on post-retrieval response verification processes. In the standard old/new effect (Hits vs Correct Rejections), these group differences were intermediate to those for the Objective and the Subjective comparisons, indicating that such comparisons are confounded by response bias. We propose that these biases are top-down controlled processes mediated by prefrontal cortex areas.

Attentional biases to threat in social anxiety disorder: time to focus our attention elsewhere?

PubMed

Wermes, Richard; Lincoln, Tania M; Helbig-Lang, Sylvia

2018-06-07

Cognitive models propose that attentional biases to threat contribute to the maintenance of social anxiety disorder (SAD). However, the specific characteristics of such biases are still object to debate. The current study aimed to disentangle effects of trait and state social anxiety on attention allocation towards social stimuli. Participants with SAD (n = 67) and healthy controls (n = 62) completed three visual search tasks while their eye movements were recorded. Half of the participants in each group were randomly assigned to a state anxiety induction. Contrary to our predictions, neither trait nor state social anxiety was associated with a facilitated attention to or a delayed disengagement from threat. However, participants with SAD did show reduced fixation durations for threatening stimuli, indicating an avoidance of threat. Induction of state anxiety led to an increased distractibility by threat. We suggest that attention allocation in SAD is characterized by an avoidant rather than a vigilant attentional bias. Accordingly, our results contradict previous results that associate SAD with facilitated attention to threat and existing approaches to modify attentional biases, that aim to decrease attention towards threatening stimuli.

New Trends in Magnetic Exchange Bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mougin, Alexandra; Mangin, Stéphane; Bobo, Jean-Francois; Loidl, Alois

2005-05-01

of the constituant layers. The spirit of this topical issue is, for the first time, to gather and survey recent and original developments, both experimental and theoretical, which bring new insights into the physics of exchange bias. It has been planned in relation with an international workshop exclusively devoted to exchange bias, namely IWEBMN’04 (International Workshop on Exchange Bias in Magnetic Nanostructures) that took place in Anglet, in the south west of France, from 16th to 18th September 2004. The conference gathered worldwide researchers in the area, both experimentalists and theoreticians. Several research paths are particularly active in the field of magnetic exchange coupling. The conference, as well as this topical issue, which was also open to contributions from scientists not participating in the conference, has been organized according to the following principles: 1. Epitaxial systems: Since the essential behavior of exchange bias critically depends on the atomic-level chemical and spin structure at the interface between the ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic components, epitaxial AF/F systems in which the quality of the interface and the crystalline coherence are optimized and well known are ideal candidates for a better understanding of the underlying physics of exchange bias. The dependence of exchange bias on the spin configurations at the interfaces can be accomplished by selecting different crystallographic orientations. The role of interface roughness can also be understood from thin-film systems by changing the growth parameters, and correlations between the interface structure and exchange bias can be made, as reported in this issue. 2. Out-of-plane magnetized systems: While much important work has been devoted to the study of structures with in-plane magnetization, little has been done on the study of exchange bias and exchange coupling in samples with out-of-plane magnetization. Some systems can exhibit either in-plane or out

Time-averaged fluxes of lead and fallout radionuclides to sediments in Florida Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, J.A.; Holmes, C.; Halley, R.; Bothner, Michael H.; Shinn, E.; Graney, J.; Keeler, G.; TenBrink, M.; Orlandini, K.A.; Rudnick, D.

2000-01-01

Recent, unmixed sediments from mud banks of central Florida Bay were dated using 210Pb/226Ra, and chronologies were verified by comparing sediment lead temporal records with Pb/Ca ratios in annual layers of coral (Montastrea annularis) located on the ocean side of the Florida Keys. Dates of sediment lead peaks (1978±2) accord with prior observations of a 6 year lag between the occurrence of maximum atmospheric lead in 1972 and peak coral lead in 1978. Smaller lags of 1–2 years occur between the maximum atmospheric radionuclide fallout and peaks in sediment temporal records of 137Cs and Pu. Such lags are consequences of system time averaging (STA) in which atmospherically delivered particle-associated constituents accumulate and mix in a (sedimentary?) reservoir before transferring to permanent sediments and coral. STA model calculations, using time-dependent atmospheric inputs, produced optimized profiles in excellent accord with measured sediment 137Cs, Pu, lead, and coral lead distributions. Derived residence times of these particle tracers (16±1, 15.7±0.7, 19±3, and 16±2 years, respectively) are comparable despite differences in sampling locations, in accumulating media, and in element loading histories and geochemical properties. For a 16 year weighted mean residence time, STA generates the observed 6 year lead peak lag. Evidently, significant levels of nondegradable, particle-associated contaminants can persist in Florida Bay for many decades following elimination of external inputs. Present results, in combination with STA model analysis of previously reported radionuclide profiles, suggest that decade-scale time averaging may occur widely in recent coastal marine sedimentary environments.

Virtual Embodiment of White People in a Black Virtual Body Leads to a Sustained Reduction in Their Implicit Racial Bias.

PubMed

Banakou, Domna; Hanumanthu, Parasuram D; Slater, Mel

2016-01-01

Virtual reality can be used to visually substitute a person's body by a life-sized virtual one. Such embodiment results in a perceptual illusion of body ownership over the virtual body (VB). Previous research has shown that the form of the VB can influence implicit attitudes. In particular, embodying White people in a Black virtual body is associated with an immediate decrease in their implicit racial bias against Black people. We tested whether the reduction in implicit bias lasts for at least 1 week and whether it is enhanced by multiple exposures. Two experiments were carried out with a total of 90 female participants where the virtual body was either Black or White. Participants were required to follow a virtual Tai Chi teacher who was either Asian or European Caucasian. Each participant had 1, 2, or 3 exposures separated by days. Implicit racial bias was measured 1 week before their first exposure and 1 week after their last. The results show that implicit bias decreased more for those with the Black virtual body than the White. There was also some evidence of a general decrease in bias independently of body type for which possible explanations are put forward.

Investigating the efficacy of attention bias modification in reducing high spider fear: The role of individual differences in initial bias

PubMed Central

Fox, Elaine; Zougkou, Konstantina; Ashwin, Chris; Cahill, Shanna

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Attention Bias Modification (ABM) targets attention bias (AB) towards threat and is a potential therapeutic intervention for anxiety. The current study investigated whether initial AB (towards or away from spider images) influenced the effectiveness of ABM in spider fear. Methods AB was assessed with an attentional probe task consisting of spider and neutral images presented simultaneously followed by a probe in spider congruent or spider incongruent locations. Response time (RT) differences between spider and neutral trials > 25 ms was considered ‘Bias Toward’ threat. RT difference < - 25 ms was considered ‘Bias Away’ from threat, and a difference between −25 ms and +25 ms was considered ‘No Bias’. Participants were categorized into Initial Bias groups using pre-ABM AB scores calculated at the end of the study. 66 participants' (Bias Toward n = 27, Bias Away n = 18, No Bias n = 21) were randomly assigned to ABM-active training designed to reduce or eliminate a bias toward threat and 61 (Bias Toward n = 17, Bias Away n = 18, No Bias n = 26) to ABM-control. Results ABM-active had the largest impact on those demonstrating an initial Bias Towards spider images in terms of changing AB and reducing Spider Fear Vulnerability, with the Bias Away group experiencing least benefit from ABM. However, all Initial Bias groups benefited equally from active ABM in a Stress Task. Limitations Participants were high spider fearful but not formally diagnosed with a specific phobia. Therefore, results should be confirmed within a clinical population. Conclusions Individual differences in Initial Bias may be an important determinant of ABM efficacy. PMID:26060177

Sex Ratio Bias Leads to the Evolution of Sex Role Reversal in Honey Locust Beetles.

PubMed

Fritzsche, Karoline; Booksmythe, Isobel; Arnqvist, Göran

2016-09-26

The reversal of conventional sex roles was enigmatic to Darwin, who suggested that it may evolve when sex ratios are female biased [1]. Here we present direct evidence confirming Darwin's hypothesis. We investigated mating system evolution in a sex-role-reversed beetle (Megabruchidius dorsalis) using experimental evolution under manipulated sex ratios and food regimes. In female-biased populations, where reproductive competition among females was intensified, females evolved to be more attractive and the sex roles became more reversed. Interestingly, female-specific mating behavior evolved more rapidly than male-specific mating behavior. We show that sexual selection due to reproductive competition can be strong in females and can target much the same traits as in males of species with conventional mating systems. Our study highlights two central points: the role of ecology in directing sexual selection and the role that females play in mating system evolution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Eye-movement evidence of the time-course of attentional bias for threatening pictures in test-anxious students.

PubMed

Dong, Yunying; De Beuckelaer, Alain; Yu, Liang; Zhou, Renlai

2017-06-01

Protocols for measuring attentional bias to threat in test-anxiety, a special form of trait-anxiety, are rarely found in the literature. In our eye-tracking study, we introduced a new protocol, and studied the time-course of attention to test-related pictures with varying threat levels in 22 high test-anxious (HTA) and 22 low test-anxious (LTA) subjects. To determine whether attentional bias to test-related pictures is due to test-anxiety and not to state-anxiety, we also included a third group of 22 subjects with high state-anxiety but low test-anxiety (HSA). The subjects completed a free viewing task (FVT) in which high threat-neutral (HT-N) and low threat-neutral (LT-N) picture pairs were presented for 3 s. The results demonstrated that: (1) HTA subjects showed initial orienting to LT pictures, early attentional engagement with HT pictures later on and avoidance of HT pictures at the very end; (2) LTA subjects showed initial orienting to HT pictures and maintenance of attention on them later on; while (3) HSA subjects showed an initial orientation towards LT pictures and maintenance of attention on LT and HT pictures later on. These results suggest that, (high) test-anxiety is also prone to attentional bias towards test-related threat stimuli. Implications for future research are discussed.

Agonistic aptamer to the insulin receptor leads to biased signaling and functional selectivity through allosteric modulation

PubMed Central

Yunn, Na-Oh; Koh, Ara; Han, Seungmin; Lim, Jong Hun; Park, Sehoon; Lee, Jiyoun; Kim, Eui; Jang, Sung Key; Berggren, Per-Olof; Ryu, Sung Ho

2015-01-01

Due to their high affinity and specificity, aptamers have been widely used as effective inhibitors in clinical applications. However, the ability to activate protein function through aptamer-protein interaction has not been well-elucidated. To investigate their potential as target-specific agonists, we used SELEX to generate aptamers to the insulin receptor (IR) and identified an agonistic aptamer named IR-A48 that specifically binds to IR, but not to IGF-1 receptor. Despite its capacity to stimulate IR autophosphorylation, similar to insulin, we found that IR-A48 not only binds to an allosteric site distinct from the insulin binding site, but also preferentially induces Y1150 phosphorylation in the IR kinase domain. Moreover, Y1150-biased phosphorylation induced by IR-A48 selectively activates specific signaling pathways downstream of IR. In contrast to insulin-mediated activation of IR, IR-A48 binding has little effect on the MAPK pathway and proliferation of cancer cells. Instead, AKT S473 phosphorylation is highly stimulated by IR-A48, resulting in increased glucose uptake both in vitro and in vivo. Here, we present IR-A48 as a biased agonist able to selectively induce the metabolic activity of IR through allosteric binding. Furthermore, our study also suggests that aptamers can be a promising tool for developing artificial biased agonists to targeted receptors. PMID:26245346

Thin-Film Module Reverse-Bias Breakdown Sites Identified by Thermal Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, Steven; Sulas, Dana; Guthrey, Harvey L

Thin-film module sections are stressed under reverse bias to simulate partial shading conditions. Such stresses can cause permanent damage in the form of 'wormlike' defects due to thermal runaway. When large reverse biases with limited current are applied to the cells, dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) can detect where spatially-localized breakdown initiates before thermal runaway leads to permanent damage. Predicted breakdown defect sites have been identified in both CIGS and CdTe modules using DLIT. These defects include small pinholes, craters, or voids in the absorber layer of the film that lead to built-in areas of weakness where high current densities maymore » cause thermal damage in a partial-shading event.« less

Measurement of the $B^-$ lifetime using a simulation free approach for trigger bias correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaltonen, T.; /Helsinki Inst. of Phys.; Adelman, J.

2010-04-01

The collection of a large number of B hadron decays to hadronic final states at the CDF II detector is possible due to the presence of a trigger that selects events based on track impact parameters. However, the nature of the selection requirements of the trigger introduces a large bias in the observed proper decay time distribution. A lifetime measurement must correct for this bias and the conventional approach has been to use a Monte Carlo simulation. The leading sources of systematic uncertainty in the conventional approach are due to differences between the data and the Monte Carlo simulation. Inmore » this paper they present an analytic method for bias correction without using simulation, thereby removing any uncertainty between data and simulation. This method is presented in the form of a measurement of the lifetime of the B{sup -} using the mode B{sup -} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup -}. The B{sup -} lifetime is measured as {tau}{sub B{sup -}} = 1.663 {+-} 0.023 {+-} 0.015 ps, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. This new method results in a smaller systematic uncertainty in comparison to methods that use simulation to correct for the trigger bias.« less

Attentional Bias towards Positive Emotion Predicts Stress Resilience.

PubMed

Thoern, Hanna A; Grueschow, Marcus; Ehlert, Ulrike; Ruff, Christian C; Kleim, Birgit

2016-01-01

There is extensive evidence for an association between an attentional bias towards emotionally negative stimuli and vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. Less is known about whether selective attention towards emotionally positive stimuli relates to mental health and stress resilience. The current study used a modified Dot Probe task to investigate if individual differences in attentional biases towards either happy or angry emotional stimuli, or an interaction between these biases, are related to self-reported trait stress resilience. In a nonclinical sample (N = 43), we indexed attentional biases as individual differences in reaction time for stimuli preceded by either happy or angry (compared to neutral) face stimuli. Participants with greater attentional bias towards happy faces (but not angry faces) reported higher trait resilience. However, an attentional bias towards angry stimuli moderated this effect: The attentional bias towards happy faces was only predictive for resilience in those individuals who also endorsed an attentional bias towards angry stimuli. An attentional bias towards positive emotional stimuli may thus be a protective factor contributing to stress resilience, specifically in those individuals who also endorse an attentional bias towards negative emotional stimuli. Our findings therefore suggest a novel target for prevention and treatment interventions addressing stress-related psychopathology.

Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead time streamflow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad

2009-03-01

We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906-2001 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes with 3 years lead time. The SVM model is trained with 86 years of data (1906-1991) and tested with 10 years of data (1992-2001). On the basis of correlation coefficient, root means square error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, reveals a strong signal for ENSO and NAO indices as compared to PDO and AMO indices for the long lead time streamflow forecast. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feedforward back propagation artificial neural network model and linear regression.

Are most samples of animals systematically biased? Consistent individual trait differences bias samples despite random sampling.

PubMed

Biro, Peter A

2013-02-01

Sampling animals from the wild for study is something nearly every biologist has done, but despite our best efforts to obtain random samples of animals, 'hidden' trait biases may still exist. For example, consistent behavioral traits can affect trappability/catchability, independent of obvious factors such as size and gender, and these traits are often correlated with other repeatable physiological and/or life history traits. If so, systematic sampling bias may exist for any of these traits. The extent to which this is a problem, of course, depends on the magnitude of bias, which is presently unknown because the underlying trait distributions in populations are usually unknown, or unknowable. Indeed, our present knowledge about sampling bias comes from samples (not complete population censuses), which can possess bias to begin with. I had the unique opportunity to create naturalized populations of fish by seeding each of four small fishless lakes with equal densities of slow-, intermediate-, and fast-growing fish. Using sampling methods that are not size-selective, I observed that fast-growing fish were up to two-times more likely to be sampled than slower-growing fish. This indicates substantial and systematic bias with respect to an important life history trait (growth rate). If correlations between behavioral, physiological and life-history traits are as widespread as the literature suggests, then many animal samples may be systematically biased with respect to these traits (e.g., when collecting animals for laboratory use), and affect our inferences about population structure and abundance. I conclude with a discussion on ways to minimize sampling bias for particular physiological/behavioral/life-history types within animal populations.

Improving DLA Supply Chain Agility: Lead Times, Order Quantities, and Information Flow

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

effective inventory management. The dynamism of supply appears to be less than demand, with major problems from supply-side vola- tility not apparent...presents a challenge for efficient and effective inventory management. The dynamism of supply appears to be much less, with major problems from...a vehicle safety problem that newly appears. Or the lead time for the customer change of plan may be less than the lead time to procure the item. So

The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; DeLaFrance, A.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impacts of climate change often entails using projections from inherently imperfect general circulation models (GCMs) to drive models that simulate biophysical or societal systems in great detail. Error or bias in the GCM output is often assessed in relation to observations, and the projections are adjusted so that the output from impacts models can be compared to historical or observed conditions. Uncertainty in the projections is typically accommodated by running more than one future climate trajectory to account for differing emissions scenarios, model simulations, and natural variability. The current methods for dealing with error and uncertainty treat them as separate problems. In places where observed and/or simulated natural variability is large, however, it may not be possible to identify a consistent degree of bias in mean climate, blurring the lines between model error and projection uncertainty. Here we demonstrate substantial instability in mean monthly temperature bias across a suite of GCMs used in CMIP5. This instability is greatest in the highest latitudes during the cool season, where shifts from average temperatures below to above freezing could have profound impacts. In models with the greatest degree of bias instability, the timing of regional shifts from below to above average normal temperatures in a single climate projection can vary by about three decades, depending solely on the degree of bias assessed. This suggests that current bias correction methods based on comparison to 20- or 30-year normals may be inappropriate, particularly in the polar regions.

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism

PubMed Central

Kappes, Andreas; Faber, Nadira S.; Kahane, Guy; Savulescu, Julian; Crockett, Molly J.

2018-01-01

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people’s futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself. PMID:29381448

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism.

PubMed

Kappes, Andreas; Faber, Nadira S; Kahane, Guy; Savulescu, Julian; Crockett, Molly J

2018-03-01

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people's futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself.

Time differences in the formation of meteorites as determined from the ratio of lead-207 to lead-206

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tatsumoto, M.; Knight, R.J.; Allegre, C.J.

1973-01-01

Measurements of the lead isotopic composition and the uranium, thorium, and lead concentrations in meteorites were made in order to obtain more precise radiometric ages of these members of the solar system. The newly determined value of the lead isotopic composition of Canyon Diablo troilite is as follows: 206Pb/204Pb = 9.307, 207Pb/204Pb = 10.294, and 208Pb/204Pb = 29.476. The leads of Angra dos Reis, Sioux County, and Nuevo Laredo achondrites are very radiogenic, the 206Pb/204Pb values are about 200, and the uranium-thorium-lead systems are nearly concordant. The ages of the meteorites as calculated from a single-stage 207Pb/206Pb isochron based on the newly determined primordial lead value and the newly reported 235U and 238U decay constants, are 4.528 ?? 10 9 years for Sioux County and Nuevo Laredo and 4.555 ?? 10 9 years for Angra dos Reis. When calculated with the uranium decay constants used by Patterson, these ages are 4.593 ?? 109 years and 4.620 ?? 109 years, respectively, and are therefore 40 to 70 ?? 106 years older than the 4.55 ?? 109 years age Patterson reported. The age difference of 27 ?? 106 years between Angra dos Reis and the other two meteorites is compatible with the difference between the initial 87Sr/86Sr ratio of Angra dos Reis and that of seven basaltic achondrites observed by Papanastassiou and Wasserburg. The time difference is also comparable to that determined by 129I-129Xe chronology. The ages of ordinary chondrites (H5 and L6) range from 4.52 to 4.57 ?? 109 years, and, here too, time differences in the formation of the parent bodies or later metamorphic events are indicated. Carbonaceous chondrites (C2 and C3) appear to contain younger lead components.

Is there scale-dependent bias in single-field inflation?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Putter, Roland; Doré, Olivier; Green, Daniel, E-mail: rdputter@caltech.edu, E-mail: Olivier.P.Dore@jpl.nasa.gov, E-mail: drgreen@cita.utoronto.ca

2015-10-01

Scale-dependent halo bias due to local primordial non-Gaussianity provides a strong test of single-field inflation. While it is universally understood that single-field inflation predicts negligible scale-dependent bias compared to current observational uncertainties, there is still disagreement on the exact level of scale-dependent bias at a level that could strongly impact inferences made from future surveys. In this paper, we clarify this confusion and derive in various ways that there is exactly zero scale-dependent bias in single-field inflation. Much of the current confusion follows from the fact that single-field inflation does predict a mode coupling of matter perturbations at the levelmore » of f{sub NL}{sup local}; ≈ −5/3, which naively would lead to scale-dependent bias. However, we show explicitly that this mode coupling cancels out when perturbations are evaluated at a fixed physical scale rather than fixed coordinate scale. Furthermore, we show how the absence of scale-dependent bias can be derived easily in any gauge. This result can then be incorporated into a complete description of the observed galaxy clustering, including the previously studied general relativistic terms, which are important at the same level as scale-dependent bias of order f{sub NL}{sup local} ∼ 1. This description will allow us to draw unbiased conclusions about inflation from future galaxy clustering data.« less

Effects of lead time of verbal collision warning messages on driving behavior in connected vehicle settings.

PubMed

Wan, Jingyan; Wu, Changxu; Zhang, Yiqi

2016-09-01

Under the connected vehicle environment, vehicles will be able to exchange traffic information with roadway infrastructure and other vehicles. With such information, collision warning systems (CWSs) will be able to warn drivers with potentially hazardous situations within or out of sight and reduce collision accidents. The lead time of warning messages is a crucial factor in determining the effectiveness of CWSs in the prevention of traffic accidents. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the effects of lead time on driving behaviors and explore the optimal lead time in various collision scenarios. The present driving simulator experiment studied the effects of controlled lead time at 16 levels (predetermined time headway from the subject vehicle to the collision location when the warning message broadcasted to a driver) on driving behaviors in various collision scenarios. Maximum effectiveness of warning messages was achieved when the controlled lead time was within the range of 5s to 8s. Specifically, the controlled lead time ranging from 4s to 8s led to the optimal safety benefit; and the controlled lead time ranging from 5s to 8s led to more gradual braking and shorter reaction time. Furthermore, a trapezoidal distribution of warning effectiveness was found by building a statistic model using curve estimation considering lead time, lifetime driving experience, and driving speed. The results indicated that the controlled lead time significantly affected driver performance. The findings have implications for the design of collision warning systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Virtual Embodiment of White People in a Black Virtual Body Leads to a Sustained Reduction in Their Implicit Racial Bias

PubMed Central

Banakou, Domna; Hanumanthu, Parasuram D.; Slater, Mel

2016-01-01

Virtual reality can be used to visually substitute a person's body by a life-sized virtual one. Such embodiment results in a perceptual illusion of body ownership over the virtual body (VB). Previous research has shown that the form of the VB can influence implicit attitudes. In particular, embodying White people in a Black virtual body is associated with an immediate decrease in their implicit racial bias against Black people. We tested whether the reduction in implicit bias lasts for at least 1 week and whether it is enhanced by multiple exposures. Two experiments were carried out with a total of 90 female participants where the virtual body was either Black or White. Participants were required to follow a virtual Tai Chi teacher who was either Asian or European Caucasian. Each participant had 1, 2, or 3 exposures separated by days. Implicit racial bias was measured 1 week before their first exposure and 1 week after their last. The results show that implicit bias decreased more for those with the Black virtual body than the White. There was also some evidence of a general decrease in bias independently of body type for which possible explanations are put forward. PMID:27965555

Publication bias in dermatology systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

PubMed

Atakpo, Paul; Vassar, Matt

2016-05-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in dermatology provide high-level evidence for clinicians and policy makers that influence clinical decision making and treatment guidelines. One methodological problem with systematic reviews is the under representation of unpublished studies. This problem is due in part to publication bias. Omission of statistically non-significant data from meta-analyses may result in overestimation of treatment effect sizes which may lead to clinical consequences. Our goal was to assess whether systematic reviewers in dermatology evaluate and report publication bias. Further, we wanted to conduct our own evaluation of publication bias on meta-analyses that failed to do so. Our study considered systematic reviews and meta-analyses from ten dermatology journals from 2006 to 2016. A PubMed search was conducted, and all full-text articles that met our inclusion criteria were retrieved and coded by the primary author. 293 articles were included in our analysis. Additionally, we formally evaluated publication bias in meta-analyses that failed to do so using trim and fill and cumulative meta-analysis by precision methods. Publication bias was mentioned in 107 articles (36.5%) and was formally evaluated in 64 articles (21.8%). Visual inspection of a funnel plot was the most common method of evaluating publication bias. Publication bias was present in 45 articles (15.3%), not present in 57 articles (19.5%) and not determined in 191 articles (65.2%). Using the trim and fill method, 7 meta-analyses (33.33%) showed evidence of publication bias. Although the trim and fill method only found evidence of publication bias in 7 meta-analyses, the cumulative meta-analysis by precision method found evidence of publication bias in 15 meta-analyses (71.4%). Many of the reviews in our study did not mention or evaluate publication bias. Further, of the 42 articles that stated following PRISMA reporting guidelines, 19 (45.2%) evaluated for publication bias. In

The Effect of Amplifier Bias Drift on Differential Magnitude Estimation in Multiple-Star Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyler, David W.; Muralimanohar, Hariharan; Borelli, Kathy J.

2007-02-01

We show how the temporal drift of CCD amplifier bias can cause significant relative magnitude estimation error in speckle interferometric observations of multiple-star systems. When amplifier bias varies over time, the estimation error arises if the time between acquisition of dark-frame calibration data and science data is long relative to the timescale over which the bias changes. Using analysis, we show that while detector-temperature drift over time causes a variation in accumulated dark current and a residual bias in calibrated imagery, only amplifier bias variations cause a residual bias in the estimated energy spectrum. We then use telescope data taken specifically to investigate this phenomenon to show that for the detector used, temporal bias drift can cause residual energy spectrum bias as large or larger than the mean value of the noise energy spectrum. Finally, we use a computer simulation to demonstrate the effect of residual bias on differential magnitude estimation. A supplemental calibration technique is described in the appendices.

Implicit bias in healthcare professionals: a systematic review.

PubMed

FitzGerald, Chloë; Hurst, Samia

2017-03-01

Implicit biases involve associations outside conscious awareness that lead to a negative evaluation of a person on the basis of irrelevant characteristics such as race or gender. This review examines the evidence that healthcare professionals display implicit biases towards patients. PubMed, PsychINFO, PsychARTICLE and CINAHL were searched for peer-reviewed articles published between 1st March 2003 and 31st March 2013. Two reviewers assessed the eligibility of the identified papers based on precise content and quality criteria. The references of eligible papers were examined to identify further eligible studies. Forty two articles were identified as eligible. Seventeen used an implicit measure (Implicit Association Test in fifteen and subliminal priming in two), to test the biases of healthcare professionals. Twenty five articles employed a between-subjects design, using vignettes to examine the influence of patient characteristics on healthcare professionals' attitudes, diagnoses, and treatment decisions. The second method was included although it does not isolate implicit attitudes because it is recognised by psychologists who specialise in implicit cognition as a way of detecting the possible presence of implicit bias. Twenty seven studies examined racial/ethnic biases; ten other biases were investigated, including gender, age and weight. Thirty five articles found evidence of implicit bias in healthcare professionals; all the studies that investigated correlations found a significant positive relationship between level of implicit bias and lower quality of care. The evidence indicates that healthcare professionals exhibit the same levels of implicit bias as the wider population. The interactions between multiple patient characteristics and between healthcare professional and patient characteristics reveal the complexity of the phenomenon of implicit bias and its influence on clinician-patient interaction. The most convincing studies from our review are those

Speed Biases With Real-Life Video Clips.

PubMed

Rossi, Federica; Montanaro, Elisa; de'Sperati, Claudio

2018-01-01

We live almost literally immersed in an artificial visual world, especially motion pictures. In this exploratory study, we asked whether the best speed for reproducing a video is its original, shooting speed. By using adjustment and double staircase methods, we examined speed biases in viewing real-life video clips in three experiments, and assessed their robustness by manipulating visual and auditory factors. With the tested stimuli (short clips of human motion, mixed human-physical motion, physical motion and ego-motion), speed underestimation was the rule rather than the exception, although it depended largely on clip content, ranging on average from 2% (ego-motion) to 32% (physical motion). Manipulating display size or adding arbitrary soundtracks did not modify these speed biases. Estimated speed was not correlated with estimated duration of these same video clips. These results indicate that the sense of speed for real-life video clips can be systematically biased, independently of the impression of elapsed time. Measuring subjective visual tempo may integrate traditional methods that assess time perception: speed biases may be exploited to develop a simple, objective test of reality flow, to be used for example in clinical and developmental contexts. From the perspective of video media, measuring speed biases may help to optimize video reproduction speed and validate "natural" video compression techniques based on sub-threshold temporal squeezing.

Speed Biases With Real-Life Video Clips

PubMed Central

Rossi, Federica; Montanaro, Elisa; de’Sperati, Claudio

2018-01-01

We live almost literally immersed in an artificial visual world, especially motion pictures. In this exploratory study, we asked whether the best speed for reproducing a video is its original, shooting speed. By using adjustment and double staircase methods, we examined speed biases in viewing real-life video clips in three experiments, and assessed their robustness by manipulating visual and auditory factors. With the tested stimuli (short clips of human motion, mixed human-physical motion, physical motion and ego-motion), speed underestimation was the rule rather than the exception, although it depended largely on clip content, ranging on average from 2% (ego-motion) to 32% (physical motion). Manipulating display size or adding arbitrary soundtracks did not modify these speed biases. Estimated speed was not correlated with estimated duration of these same video clips. These results indicate that the sense of speed for real-life video clips can be systematically biased, independently of the impression of elapsed time. Measuring subjective visual tempo may integrate traditional methods that assess time perception: speed biases may be exploited to develop a simple, objective test of reality flow, to be used for example in clinical and developmental contexts. From the perspective of video media, measuring speed biases may help to optimize video reproduction speed and validate “natural” video compression techniques based on sub-threshold temporal squeezing. PMID:29615875

Enhancing Nursing Staffing Forecasting With Safety Stock Over Lead Time Modeling.

PubMed

McNair, Douglas S

2015-01-01

In balancing competing priorities, it is essential that nursing staffing provide enough nurses to safely and effectively care for the patients. Mathematical models to predict optimal "safety stocks" have been routine in supply chain management for many years but have up to now not been applied in nursing workforce management. There are various aspects that exhibit similarities between the 2 disciplines, such as an evolving demand forecast according to acuity and the fact that provisioning "stock" to meet demand in a future period has nonzero variable lead time. Under assumptions about the forecasts (eg, the demand process is well fit as an autoregressive process) and about the labor supply process (≥1 shifts' lead time), we show that safety stock over lead time for such systems is effectively equivalent to the corresponding well-studied problem for systems with stationary demand bounds and base stock policies. Hence, we can apply existing models from supply chain analytics to find the optimal safety levels of nurse staffing. We use a case study with real data to demonstrate that there are significant benefits from the inclusion of the forecast process when determining the optimal safety stocks.

Can baclofen change alcohol-related cognitive biases and what is the role of anxiety herein?

PubMed

Beraha, Esther M; Salemink, Elske; Krediet, Erwin; Wiers, Reinout W

2018-06-01

Baclofen has shown promise in the treatment of alcohol dependence. However, its precise (neuro-) psychological working mechanism is still under debate. This study aimed to get a better understanding of baclofen's working mechanism by examining the effect of baclofen on cognitive biases. It was hypothesized that baclofen, compared to placebo, would lead to weaker cognitive biases. Furthermore, given a suggested anxiolytic effect of baclofen, we expected that anxiety would moderate this effect. From a larger randomized clinical trial (RCT) with 151 participants, a subset of 143 detoxified alcohol-dependent patients, either taking baclofen or placebo, was examined. Attentional bias for alcohol (500 and 1500 ms), alcohol approach tendencies, implicit alcohol-relaxation associations and trait anxiety were assessed before the administration of baclofen or placebo. Four weeks later, 94 patients were still abstinent (53 in the baclofen and 41 in the placebo condition) and cognitive biases were assessed again. At baseline, patients showed a vigilance-avoidance pattern for the attentional bias (at 500 and 1500 ms, respectively) and alcohol-negative associations. After 4 weeks, an indication for an attentional bias away from alcohol at 500 ms was found only in the baclofen group; however, cognitive biases did not differ significantly between treatment groups. No moderating role of anxiety on cognitive biases was found. Baclofen did not lead to a differential change in cognitive biases compared with placebo, and trait anxiety levels did not moderate this. A better understanding of the working mechanism of baclofen and predictors of treatment success would allow prescribing of baclofen in a more targeted manner.

Nonlinear relationships can lead to bias in biomass calculations and drift-foraging models when using summaries of invertebrate drift data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodrill, Michael J.; Yackulic, Charles B.

2016-01-01

Drift-foraging models offer a mechanistic description of how fish feed in flowing water and the application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to answer both applied and theoretical questions in aquatic ecology is growing. These models typically include nonlinear descriptions of ecological processes and as a result may be sensitive to how model inputs are summarized because of a mathematical property of nonlinear equations known as Jensen’s inequality. In particular, we show that the way in which continuous size distributions of invertebrate prey are represented within foraging models can lead to biases within the modeling process. We begin by illustrating how different equations common to drift-foraging models are sensitive to invertebrate inputs. We then use two case studies to show how different representations of invertebrate prey can influence predictions of energy intake and lifetime growth. Greater emphasis should be placed on accurate characterizations of invertebrate drift, acknowledging that inferences from drift-foraging models may be influenced by how invertebrate prey are represented.

How to lose weight bias fast! Evaluating a brief anti-weight bias intervention.

PubMed

Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Barlow, Fiona Kate

2011-11-01

Although experiencing weight bias is associated with poor physical and psychological health, health professionals often stigmatize overweight and obese clients. The objective of this study was to evaluate a brief educational intervention that aimed to reduce weight bias among Australian pre-service health students by challenging beliefs about the controllability of weight. Non-equivalent group comparison trial. Undergraduate psychology students were assigned to an intervention (n= 30), control (n= 35), or comparison (n= 20) condition. The intervention condition received a lecture on obesity, weight bias, and the multiple determinants of weight; the comparison condition received a lecture on obesity and the behavioural determinants of weight; and the control condition received no lecture. Beliefs about the controllability of weight and attitudes towards overweight and obese people were assessed 1 week pre-intervention, immediately post-intervention, and 3 weeks post-intervention. After receiving the lecture, participants in the intervention group were less likely to believe that weight is solely within individual control and were also less likely to hold negative attitudes towards overweight and obese people and rate them as unattractive. These changes were maintained 3 weeks post-intervention. There were no such changes in the control or comparison groups. Disparagement of overweight and obese peoples' social character increased over time for participants in the control condition but did not change in the comparison or intervention groups. This study provides evidence that brief, education-based anti-weight bias interventions show success in challenging weight controllability beliefs and reducing weight bias among pre-service health students. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Is there gender bias in nursing research?

PubMed

Polit, Denise F; Beck, Cheryl Tatano

2008-10-01

Using data from a consecutive sample of 259 studies published in four leading nursing research journals in 2005-2006, we examined whether nurse researchers favor females as study participants. On average, 75.3% of study participants were female, and 38% of studies had all-female samples. The bias favoring female participants was statistically significant and persistent. The bias was observed regardless of funding source, methodological features, and other participant and researcher characteristics, with one exception: studies that had male investigators had more sex-balanced samples. When designing studies, nurse researchers need to pay close attention to who will benefit from their research and to whether they are leaving out a specific group about which there is a gap in knowledge. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Categorisation salience and ingroup bias: the buffering role of a multicultural ideology.

PubMed

Costa-Lopes, Rui; Pereira, Cícero Roberto; Judd, Charles M

2014-12-01

The current work sought to test the moderating role of a multicultural ideology on the relationship between categorisation salience and ingroup bias. Accordingly, in one experimental study, we manipulated categorisation salience and the accessibility of a multicultural ideology, and measured intergroup attitudes. Results show that categorisation salience only leads to ingroup bias when a multiculturalism (MC) ideology is not made salient. Thus, MC ideology attenuates the negative effects of categorisation salience on ingroup bias. These results pertain to social psychology in general showing that the cognitive processes should be construed within the framework of ideological contexts. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

Bias in Estimation of Hippocampal Atrophy using Deformation-Based Morphometry Arises from Asymmetric Global Normalization: An Illustration in ADNI 3 Tesla MRI Data

PubMed Central

Yushkevich, Paul A.; Avants, Brian B.; Das, Sandhitsu R.; Pluta, John; Altinay, Murat; Craige, Caryne

2009-01-01

Measurement of brain change due to neurodegenerative disease and treatment is one of the fundamental tasks of neuroimaging. Deformation-based morphometry (DBM) has been long recognized as an effective and sensitive tool for estimating the change in the volume of brain regions over time. This paper demonstrates that a straightforward application of DBM to estimate the change in the volume of the hippocampus can result in substantial bias, i.e., an overestimation of the rate of change in hippocampal volume. In ADNI data, this bias is manifested as a non-zero intercept of the regression line fitted to the 6 and 12 month rates of hippocampal atrophy. The bias is further confirmed by applying DBM to repeat scans of subjects acquired on the same day. This bias appears to be the result of asymmetry in the interpolation of baseline and followup images during longitudinal image registration. Correcting this asymmetry leads to bias-free atrophy estimation. PMID:20005963

The Impact of Satellite Time Group Delay and Inter-Frequency Differential Code Bias Corrections on Multi-GNSS Combined Positioning

PubMed Central

Ge, Yulong; Zhou, Feng; Sun, Baoqi; Wang, Shengli; Shi, Bo

2017-01-01

We present quad-constellation (namely, GPS, GLONASS, BeiDou and Galileo) time group delay (TGD) and differential code bias (DCB) correction models to fully exploit the code observations of all the four global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) for navigation and positioning. The relationship between TGDs and DCBs for multi-GNSS is clearly figured out, and the equivalence of TGD and DCB correction models combining theory with practice is demonstrated. Meanwhile, the TGD/DCB correction models have been extended to various standard point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) scenarios in a multi-GNSS and multi-frequency context. To evaluate the effectiveness and practicability of broadcast TGDs in the navigation message and DCBs provided by the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX), both single-frequency GNSS ionosphere-corrected SPP and dual-frequency GNSS ionosphere-free SPP/PPP tests are carried out with quad-constellation signals. Furthermore, the author investigates the influence of differential code biases on GNSS positioning estimates. The experiments show that multi-constellation combination SPP performs better after DCB/TGD correction, for example, for GPS-only b1-based SPP, the positioning accuracies can be improved by 25.0%, 30.6% and 26.7%, respectively, in the N, E, and U components, after the differential code biases correction, while GPS/GLONASS/BDS b1-based SPP can be improved by 16.1%, 26.1% and 9.9%. For GPS/BDS/Galileo the 3rd frequency based SPP, the positioning accuracies are improved by 2.0%, 2.0% and 0.4%, respectively, in the N, E, and U components, after Galileo satellites DCB correction. The accuracy of Galileo-only b1-based SPP are improved about 48.6%, 34.7% and 40.6% with DCB correction, respectively, in the N, E, and U components. The estimates of multi-constellation PPP are subject to different degrees of influence. For multi-constellation combination SPP, the accuracy of single-frequency is slightly better than that of dual

The Impact of Satellite Time Group Delay and Inter-Frequency Differential Code Bias Corrections on Multi-GNSS Combined Positioning.

PubMed

Ge, Yulong; Zhou, Feng; Sun, Baoqi; Wang, Shengli; Shi, Bo

2017-03-16

We present quad-constellation (namely, GPS, GLONASS, BeiDou and Galileo) time group delay (TGD) and differential code bias (DCB) correction models to fully exploit the code observations of all the four global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) for navigation and positioning. The relationship between TGDs and DCBs for multi-GNSS is clearly figured out, and the equivalence of TGD and DCB correction models combining theory with practice is demonstrated. Meanwhile, the TGD/DCB correction models have been extended to various standard point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) scenarios in a multi-GNSS and multi-frequency context. To evaluate the effectiveness and practicability of broadcast TGDs in the navigation message and DCBs provided by the Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX), both single-frequency GNSS ionosphere-corrected SPP and dual-frequency GNSS ionosphere-free SPP/PPP tests are carried out with quad-constellation signals. Furthermore, the author investigates the influence of differential code biases on GNSS positioning estimates. The experiments show that multi-constellation combination SPP performs better after DCB/TGD correction, for example, for GPS-only b1-based SPP, the positioning accuracies can be improved by 25.0%, 30.6% and 26.7%, respectively, in the N, E, and U components, after the differential code biases correction, while GPS/GLONASS/BDS b1-based SPP can be improved by 16.1%, 26.1% and 9.9%. For GPS/BDS/Galileo the 3rd frequency based SPP, the positioning accuracies are improved by 2.0%, 2.0% and 0.4%, respectively, in the N, E, and U components, after Galileo satellites DCB correction. The accuracy of Galileo-only b1-based SPP are improved about 48.6%, 34.7% and 40.6% with DCB correction, respectively, in the N, E, and U components. The estimates of multi-constellation PPP are subject to different degrees of influence. For multi-constellation combination SPP, the accuracy of single-frequency is slightly better than that of dual

Interrupted time series analysis of children’s blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York

PubMed Central

Shao, Liyang; Zhang, Lianjun; Zhen, Zhen

2017-01-01

Children’s blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children’s blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children’s BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children’s blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children’s BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children’s BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77μg/dL to 3.94μg/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children’s blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children’s BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis. PMID:28182688

Seasonal and circadian biases in bird tracking with solar GPS-tags

PubMed Central

Afán, Isabel; Gil, Juan A.; Bustamante, Javier

2017-01-01

Global Positioning System (GPS) tags are nowadays widely used in wildlife tracking. This geolocation technique can suffer from fix loss biases due to poor satellite GPS geometry, that result in tracking data gaps leading to wrong research conclusions. In addition, new solar-powered GPS tags deployed on birds can suffer from a new “battery drain bias” currently ignored in movement ecology analyses. We use a GPS tracking dataset of bearded vultures (Gypaetus barbatus), tracked for several years with solar GPS tags, to evaluate the causes and triggers of fix and data retrieval loss biases. We compare two models of solar GPS tags using different data retrieval systems (Argos vs GSM-GPRS), and programmed with different duty cycles. Neither of the models was able to accomplish the duty cycle programed initially. Fix and data retrieval loss rates were always greater than expected, and showed non-random gaps in GPS locations. Number of fixes per month of tracking was a bad criterion to identify tags with smaller biases. Fix-loss rates were four times higher due to battery drain than due to poor GPS satellite geometry. Both tag models were biased due to the uneven solar energy available for the recharge of the tag throughout the annual cycle, resulting in greater fix-loss rates in winter compared to summer. In addition, we suggest that the bias found along the diurnal cycle is linked to a complex three-factor interaction of bird flight behavior, topography and fix interval. More fixes were lost when vultures were perching compared to flying, in rugged versus flat topography. But long fix-intervals caused greater loss of fixes in dynamic (flying) versus static situations (perching). To conclude, we emphasize the importance of evaluating fix-loss bias in current tracking projects, and deploying GPS tags that allow remote duty cycle updates so that the most appropriate fix and data retrieval intervals can be selected. PMID:29020062

HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Zehe, E.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Liebert, J.

2012-04-01

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both Global and Regional Circulation Models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem bias correction (BC), i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post processing step for its subsequent application in climate change impact studies has now become a standard procedure. In this paper we argue that bias correction, which has a considerable influence on the results of impact studies, is not a valid procedure in the way it is currently used: it impairs the advantages of Circulation Models which are based on established physical laws by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Bias correction largely neglects feedback mechanisms and it is unclear whether bias correction methods are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying bias correction increases agreement of Climate Model output with observations in hind casts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this masks rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of Circulation Models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future Global and Regional Circulation Model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for

Possible relationship between Seismic Electric Signals (SES) lead time and earthquake stress drop

PubMed Central

DOLOGLOU, Elizabeth

2008-01-01

Stress drop values for fourteen large earthquakes with MW ≥ 5.4 which occurred in Greece during the period 1983–2007 are available. All these earthquakes were preceded by Seismic Electric Signals (SES). An attempt has been made to investigate possible correlation between their stress drop values and the corresponding SES lead times. For the stress drop, we considered the Brune stress drop, ΔσB, estimated from far field body wave displacement source spectra and ΔσSB derived from the strong motion acceleration response spectra. The results show a relation may exist between Brune stress drop, ΔσB, and lead time which implies that earthquakes with higher stress drop values are preceded by SES with shorter lead time. PMID:18941291

Thin-Film Module Reverse-Bias Breakdown Sites Identified by Thermal Imaging: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, Steven; Sulas, Dana; Guthrey, Harvey L

Thin-film module sections are stressed under reverse bias to simulate partial shading conditions. Such stresses can cause permanent damage in the form of 'wormlike' defects due to thermal runaway. When large reverse biases with limited current are applied to the cells, dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) can detect where spatially-localized breakdown initiates before thermal runaway leads to permanent damage. Predicted breakdown defect sites have been identified in both CIGS and CdTe modules using DLIT. These defects include small pinholes, craters, or voids in the absorber layer of the film that lead to built-in areas of weakness where high current densities maymore » cause thermal damage in a partial-shading event.« less

Sampling Biases in MODIS and SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.

2007-01-01

Although modem ocean color sensors, such as MODIS and SeaWiFS are often considered global missions, in reality it takes many days, even months, to sample the ocean surface enough to provide complete global coverage. The irregular temporal sampling of ocean color sensors can produce biases in monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates. We quantified the biases due to sampling using data assimilation to create a "truth field", which we then sub-sampled using the observational patterns of MODIS and SeaWiFS. Monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates from these sub-sampled, incomplete daily fields were constructed and compared to monthly and annual means from the complete daily fields of the assimilation model, at a spatial resolution of 1.25deg longitude by 0.67deg latitude. The results showed that global annual mean biases were positive, reaching nearly 8% (MODIS) and >5% (SeaWiFS). For perspective the maximum interannual variability in the SeaWiFS chlorophyll record was about 3%. Annual mean sampling biases were low (<3%) in the midlatitudes (between -40deg and 40deg). Low interannual variability in the global annual mean sampling biases suggested that global scale trend analyses were valid. High latitude biases were much higher than the global annual means, up to 20% as a basin annual mean, and over 80% in some months. This was the result of the high solar zenith angle exclusion in the processing algorithms. Only data where the solar angle is <75deg are permitted, in contrast to the assimilation which samples regularly over the entire area and month. High solar zenith angles do not facilitate phytoplankton photosynthesis and consequently low chlorophyll concentrations occurring here are missed by the data sets. Ocean color sensors selectively sample in locations and times of favorable phytoplankton growth, producing overestimates of chlorophyll. The biases derived from lack of sampling in the high latitudes varied monthly, leading to artifacts in the apparent

Meta-assessment of bias in science

PubMed Central

Fanelli, Daniele; Costas, Rodrigo; Ioannidis, John P. A.

2017-01-01

Numerous biases are believed to affect the scientific literature, but their actual prevalence across disciplines is unknown. To gain a comprehensive picture of the potential imprint of bias in science, we probed for the most commonly postulated bias-related patterns and risk factors, in a large random sample of meta-analyses taken from all disciplines. The magnitude of these biases varied widely across fields and was overall relatively small. However, we consistently observed a significant risk of small, early, and highly cited studies to overestimate effects and of studies not published in peer-reviewed journals to underestimate them. We also found at least partial confirmation of previous evidence suggesting that US studies and early studies might report more extreme effects, although these effects were smaller and more heterogeneously distributed across meta-analyses and disciplines. Authors publishing at high rates and receiving many citations were, overall, not at greater risk of bias. However, effect sizes were likely to be overestimated by early-career researchers, those working in small or long-distance collaborations, and those responsible for scientific misconduct, supporting hypotheses that connect bias to situational factors, lack of mutual control, and individual integrity. Some of these patterns and risk factors might have modestly increased in intensity over time, particularly in the social sciences. Our findings suggest that, besides one being routinely cautious that published small, highly-cited, and earlier studies may yield inflated results, the feasibility and costs of interventions to attenuate biases in the literature might need to be discussed on a discipline-specific and topic-specific basis. PMID:28320937

A father effect explains sex-ratio bias.

PubMed

Malo, Aurelio F; Martinez-Pastor, Felipe; Garcia-Gonzalez, Francisco; Garde, Julián; Ballou, Jonathan D; Lacy, Robert C

2017-08-30

Sex ratio allocation has important fitness consequences, and theory predicts that parents should adjust offspring sex ratio in cases where the fitness returns of producing male and female offspring vary. The ability of fathers to bias offspring sex ratios has traditionally been dismissed given the expectation of an equal proportion of X- and Y-chromosome-bearing sperm (CBS) in ejaculates due to segregation of sex chromosomes at meiosis. This expectation has been recently refuted. Here we used Peromyscus leucopus to demonstrate that sex ratio is explained by an exclusive effect of the father, and suggest a likely mechanism by which male-driven sex-ratio bias is attained. We identified a male sperm morphological marker that is associated with the mechanism leading to sex ratio bias; differences among males in the sperm nucleus area (a proxy for the sex chromosome that the sperm contains) explain 22% variation in litter sex ratio. We further show the role played by the sperm nucleus area as a mediator in the relationship between individual genetic variation and sex-ratio bias. Fathers with high levels of genetic variation had ejaculates with a higher proportion of sperm with small nuclei area. This, in turn, led to siring a higher proportion of sons (25% increase in sons per 0.1 decrease in the inbreeding coefficient). Our results reveal a plausible mechanism underlying unexplored male-driven sex-ratio biases. We also discuss why this pattern of paternal bias can be adaptive. This research puts to rest the idea that father contribution to sex ratio variation should be disregarded in vertebrates, and will stimulate research on evolutionary constraints to sex ratios-for example, whether fathers and mothers have divergent, coinciding, or neutral sex allocation interests. Finally, these results offer a potential explanation for those intriguing cases in which there are sex ratio biases, such as in humans. © 2017 The Author(s).

Hindsight Bias.

PubMed

Roese, Neal J; Vohs, Kathleen D

2012-09-01

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they "knew it all along," that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events' objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one's own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one's judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias. © The Author(s) 2012.

Time Course of Visual Attention in Infant Categorization of Cats versus Dogs: Evidence for a Head Bias as Revealed through Eye Tracking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Paul C.; Doran, Matthew M.; Reiss, Jason E.; Hoffman, James E.

2009-01-01

Previous looking time studies have shown that infants use the heads of cat and dog images to form category representations for these animal classes. The present research used an eye-tracking procedure to determine the time course of attention to the head and whether it reflects a preexisting bias or online learning. Six- to 7-month-olds were…

Improved Correction of Misclassification Bias With Bootstrap Imputation.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2018-07-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative database research can create bias due to misclassification. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) can correct for this bias, requires only code sensitivity and specificity, but may return invalid results. Bootstrap imputation (BI) can also address misclassification bias but traditionally requires multivariate models to accurately estimate disease probability. This study compared misclassification bias correction using QBA and BI. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 100,000 hospitalized patients. Prevalence of severe renal failure in 86 patient strata and its association with 43 covariates was determined and compared with results in which renal failure status was determined using diagnostic codes (sensitivity 71.3%, specificity 96.2%). Differences in results (misclassification bias) were then corrected with QBA or BI (using progressively more complex methods to estimate disease probability). In total, 7.4% of patients had severe renal failure. Imputing disease status with diagnostic codes exaggerated prevalence estimates [median relative change (range), 16.6% (0.8%-74.5%)] and its association with covariates [median (range) exponentiated absolute parameter estimate difference, 1.16 (1.01-2.04)]. QBA produced invalid results 9.3% of the time and increased bias in estimates of both disease prevalence and covariate associations. BI decreased misclassification bias with increasingly accurate disease probability estimates. QBA can produce invalid results and increase misclassification bias. BI avoids invalid results and can importantly decrease misclassification bias when accurate disease probability estimates are used.

On the Limitations of Variational Bias Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moradi, Isaac; Mccarty, Will; Gelaro, Ronald

2018-01-01

Satellite radiances are the largest dataset assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, however the data are subject to errors and uncertainties that need to be accounted for before assimilating into the NWP models. Variational bias correction uses the time series of observation minus background to estimate the observations bias. This technique does not distinguish between the background error, forward operator error, and observations error so that all these errors are summed up together and counted as observation error. We identify some sources of observations errors (e.g., antenna emissivity, non-linearity in the calibration, and antenna pattern) and show the limitations of variational bias corrections on estimating these errors.

Why all randomised controlled trials produce biased results.

PubMed

Krauss, Alexander

2018-06-01

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are commonly viewed as the best research method to inform public health and social policy. Usually they are thought of as providing the most rigorous evidence of a treatment's effectiveness without strong assumptions, biases and limitations. This is the first study to examine that hypothesis by assessing the 10 most cited RCT studies worldwide. These 10 RCT studies with the highest number of citations in any journal (up to June 2016) were identified by searching Scopus (the largest database of peer-reviewed journals). This study shows that these world-leading RCTs that have influenced policy produce biased results by illustrating that participants' background traits that affect outcomes are often poorly distributed between trial groups, that the trials often neglect alternative factors contributing to their main reported outcome and, among many other issues, that the trials are often only partially blinded or unblinded. The study here also identifies a number of novel and important assumptions, biases and limitations not yet thoroughly discussed in existing studies that arise when designing, implementing and analysing trials. Researchers and policymakers need to become better aware of the broader set of assumptions, biases and limitations in trials. Journals need to also begin requiring researchers to outline them in their studies. We need to furthermore better use RCTs together with other research methods. Key messages RCTs face a range of strong assumptions, biases and limitations that have not yet all been thoroughly discussed in the literature. This study assesses the 10 most cited RCTs worldwide and shows that trials inevitably produce bias. Trials involve complex processes - from randomising, blinding and controlling, to implementing treatments, monitoring participants etc. - that require many decisions and steps at different levels that bring their own assumptions and degree of bias to results.

Scheduling rules to achieve lead-time targets in outpatient appointment systems.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thu-Ba T; Sivakumar, Appa Iyer; Graves, Stephen C

2017-12-01

This paper considers how to schedule appointments for outpatients, for a clinic that is subject to appointment lead-time targets for both new and returning patients. We develop heuristic rules, which are the exact and relaxed appointment scheduling rules, to schedule each new patient appointment (only) in light of uncertainty about future arrivals. The scheduling rules entail two decisions. First, the rules need to determine whether or not a patient's request can be accepted; then, if the request is not rejected, the rules prescribe how to assign the patient to an available slot. The intent of the scheduling rules is to maximize the utilization of the planned resource (i.e., the physician staff), or equivalently to maximize the number of patients that are admitted, while maintaining the service targets on the median, the 95th percentile, and the maximum appointment lead-times. We test the proposed scheduling rules with numerical experiments using real data from the chosen clinic of Tan Tock Seng hospital in Singapore. The results show the efficiency and the efficacy of the scheduling rules, in terms of the service-target satisfaction and the resource utilization. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that the performance of the proposed scheduling rules is fairly robust to the specification of the established lead-time targets.

Low-bias flat band-stop filter based on velocity modulated gaussian graphene superlattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sattari-Esfahlan, S. M.; Shojaei, S.

2018-05-01

Transport properties of biased planar Gaussian graphene superlattice (PGGSL) with Fermi velocity barrier is investigated by transfer matrix method (TMM). It is observed that enlargement of bias voltage over miniband width breaks the miniband to WSLs leads to suppressing resonant tunneling. Transmission spectrum shows flat wide stop-band property controllable by external bias voltage with stop-band width of near 200 meV. The simulations demonstrate that strong velocity barriers prevent tunneling of Dirac electrons leading to controllable enhancement of stop-band width. By increasing ratio of Fermi velocity in barriers to wells υc stop-band width increase. As wide transmission stop-band width (BWT) of filter is tunable from 40 meV to 340 meV is obtained by enhancing ratio of υc from 0.2 to 1.5, respectively. Proposed structure suggests easy tunable wide band-stop electronic filter with a modulated flat stop-band characteristic by height of electrostatic barrier and structural parameters. Robust sensitivity of band width to velocity barrier intensity in certain bias voltages and flat band feature of proposed filter may be opens novel venue in GSL based flat band low noise filters and velocity modulation devices.

Sex-biased dispersal promotes adaptive parental effects

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background In heterogeneous environments, sex-biased dispersal could lead to environmental adaptive parental effects, with offspring selected to perform in the same way as the parent dispersing least, because this parent is more likely to be locally adapted. We investigate this hypothesis by simulating varying levels of sex-biased dispersal in a patchy environment. The relative advantage of a strategy involving pure maternal (or paternal) inheritance is then compared with a strategy involving classical biparental inheritance in plants and in animals. Results We find that the advantage of the uniparental strategy over the biparental strategy is maximal when dispersal is more strongly sex-biased and when dispersal distances of the least mobile sex are much lower than the size of the environmental patches. In plants, only maternal effects can be selected for, in contrast to animals where the evolution of either paternal or maternal effects can be favoured. Moreover, the conditions for environmental adaptive maternal effects to be selected for are more easily fulfilled in plants than in animals. Conclusions The study suggests that sex-biased dispersal can help predict the direction and magnitude of environmental adaptive parental effects. However, this depends on the scale of dispersal relative to that of the environment and on the existence of appropriate mechanisms of transmission of environmentally induced traits. PMID:20637098

Size speed bias or size arrival effect-How judgments of vehicles' approach speed and time to arrival are influenced by the vehicles' size.

PubMed

Petzoldt, Tibor

2016-10-01

Crashes at railway level crossings are a key problem for railway operations. It has been suggested that a potential explanation for such crashes might lie in a so-called size speed bias, which describes the phenomenon that observers underestimate the speed of larger objects, such as aircraft or trains. While there is some evidence that this size speed bias indeed exists, it is somewhat at odds with another well researched phenomenon, the size arrival effect. When asked to judge the time it takes an approaching object to arrive at a predefined position (time to arrival, TTA), observers tend to provide lower estimates for larger objects. In that case, road users' crossing decisions when confronted with larger vehicles should be rather conservative, which has been confirmed in multiple studies on gap acceptance. The aim of the experiment reported in this paper was to clarify the relationship between size speed bias and size arrival effect. Employing a relative judgment task, both speed and TTA estimates were assessed for virtual depictions of a train and a truck, using a car as a reference to compare against. The results confirmed the size speed bias for the speed judgments, with both train and truck being perceived as travelling slower than the car. A comparable bias was also present in the TTA estimates for the truck. In contrast, no size arrival effect could be found for the train or the truck, neither in the speed nor the TTA judgments. This finding is inconsistent with the fact that crossing behaviour when confronted with larger vehicles appears to be consistently more conservative. This discrepancy might be interpreted as an indication that factors other than perceived speed or TTA play an important role for the differences in gap acceptance between different types of vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Eliminating Bias

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Learn how to eliminate bias from monitoring systems by instituting appropriate installation, operation, and quality assurance procedures. Provides links to download An Operator's Guide to Eliminating Bias in CEM Systems.

Characterization of Hard Piezoelectric Lead-Free Ceramics

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shujun; Lim, Jong Bong; Lee, Hyeong Jae; Shrout, Thomas R.

2010-01-01

K4CuNb8O23 doped K0.45Na0.55NbO3 (KNN-KCN) ferroelectric ceramics were found to exhibit asymmetrical polarization hysteresis loops, related to the development of an internal bias field. The internal bias field is believed to be the result of defect dipoles of acceptor ions and oxygen vacancies, which lead to piezoelectric “hardening” effect, by stabilizing and pinning of the domain wall motion. The dielectric loss for the hard lead-free piezoelectric ceramic was found to be 0.6%, with mechanical quality factors Q on the order of >1500. Furthermore, the piezoelectric properties were found to decrease and the coercive field increased, when compared with the undoped material, exhibiting a typical characteristic of “hard” behavior. The temperature usage range was limited by the polymorphic phase transition temperature, being 188°C. The full set of material constants was determined for the KNN-KCN materials. Compared with conventional hard PZT ceramics, the lead-free possessed lower dielectric and piezoelectric properties; however, comparable values of mechanical Q, dielectric loss, and coercive fields were obtained, making acceptor modified KNN based lead-free piezoelectric material promising for high-power applications, where lead-free materials are desirable. PMID:19686966

Electrophysiological evidence of the time course of attentional bias in non-patients reporting symptoms of depression with and without co-occurring anxiety

PubMed Central

Sass, Sarah M.; Heller, Wendy; Fisher, Joscelyn E.; Silton, Rebecca L.; Stewart, Jennifer L.; Crocker, Laura D.; Edgar, J. Christopher; Mimnaugh, Katherine J.; Miller, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Anxiety is characterized by attentional biases to threat, but findings are inconsistent for depression. To address this inconsistency, the present study systematically assessed the role of co-occurring anxiety in attentional bias in depression. In addition, the role of emotional valence, arousal, and gender was explored. Ninety-two non-patients completed the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (Meyer et al., 1990; Molina and Borkovec, 1994) and portions of the Mood and Anxiety Symptom Questionnaire (Watson et al., 1995a,1995b). Individuals reporting high levels of depression and low levels of anxiety (depression only), high levels of depression and anxiety (combined), or low levels of both (control) completed an emotion-word Stroop task during event-related brain potential recording. Pleasant and unpleasant words were matched on emotional arousal level. An attentional bias was not evident in the depression-only group. Women in the combined group had larger N200 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, and the combined group as a whole had larger right-lateralized P300 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, consistent with an early and later attentional bias that is specific to unpleasant valence in the combined group. Men in the control group had larger N200 amplitude for pleasant than unpleasant stimuli, consistent with an early attentional bias that is specific to pleasant valence. The present study indicates that the nature and time course of attention prompted by emotional valence and not arousal differentiates depression with and without anxiety, with some evidence of gender moderating early effects. Overall, results suggest that co-occurring anxiety is more important than previously acknowledged in demonstrating evidence of attentional biases in depression. PMID:24782804

Structural insights into biased G protein-coupled receptor signaling revealed by fluorescence spectroscopy.

PubMed

Rahmeh, Rita; Damian, Marjorie; Cottet, Martin; Orcel, Hélène; Mendre, Christiane; Durroux, Thierry; Sharma, K Shivaji; Durand, Grégory; Pucci, Bernard; Trinquet, Eric; Zwier, Jurriaan M; Deupi, Xavier; Bron, Patrick; Banères, Jean-Louis; Mouillac, Bernard; Granier, Sébastien

2012-04-24

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are seven-transmembrane proteins that mediate most cellular responses to hormones and neurotransmitters, representing the largest group of therapeutic targets. Recent studies show that some GPCRs signal through both G protein and arrestin pathways in a ligand-specific manner. Ligands that direct signaling through a specific pathway are known as biased ligands. The arginine-vasopressin type 2 receptor (V2R), a prototypical peptide-activated GPCR, is an ideal model system to investigate the structural basis of biased signaling. Although the native hormone arginine-vasopressin leads to activation of both the stimulatory G protein (Gs) for the adenylyl cyclase and arrestin pathways, synthetic ligands exhibit highly biased signaling through either Gs alone or arrestin alone. We used purified V2R stabilized in neutral amphipols and developed fluorescence-based assays to investigate the structural basis of biased signaling for the V2R. Our studies demonstrate that the Gs-biased agonist stabilizes a conformation that is distinct from that stabilized by the arrestin-biased agonists. This study provides unique insights into the structural mechanisms of GPCR activation by biased ligands that may be relevant to the design of pathway-biased drugs.

All in its proper time: monitoring the emergence of a memory bias for novel, arousing-negative words in individuals with high and low trait anxiety.

PubMed

Eden, Annuschka Salima; Zwitserlood, Pienie; Keuper, Katharina; Junghöfer, Markus; Laeger, Inga; Zwanzger, Peter; Dobel, Christian

2014-01-01

The well-established memory bias for arousing-negative stimuli seems to be enhanced in high trait-anxious persons and persons suffering from anxiety disorders. We monitored the emergence and development of such a bias during and after learning, in high and low trait anxious participants. A word-learning paradigm was applied, consisting of spoken pseudowords paired either with arousing-negative or neutral pictures. Learning performance during training evidenced a short-lived advantage for arousing-negative associated words, which was not present at the end of training. Cued recall and valence ratings revealed a memory bias for pseudowords that had been paired with arousing-negative pictures, immediately after learning and two weeks later. This held even for items that were not explicitly remembered. High anxious individuals evidenced a stronger memory bias in the cued-recall test, and their ratings were also more negative overall compared to low anxious persons. Both effects were evident, even when explicit recall was controlled for. Regarding the memory bias in anxiety prone persons, explicit memory seems to play a more crucial role than implicit memory. The study stresses the need for several time points of bias measurement during the course of learning and retrieval, as well as the employment of different measures for learning success.

Lawsuit lead time prediction: Comparison of data mining techniques based on categorical response variable.

PubMed

Gruginskie, Lúcia Adriana Dos Santos; Vaccaro, Guilherme Luís Roehe

2018-01-01

The quality of the judicial system of a country can be verified by the overall length time of lawsuits, or the lead time. When the lead time is excessive, a country's economy can be affected, leading to the adoption of measures such as the creation of the Saturn Center in Europe. Although there are performance indicators to measure the lead time of lawsuits, the analysis and the fit of prediction models are still underdeveloped themes in the literature. To contribute to this subject, this article compares different prediction models according to their accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1 measure. The database used was from TRF4-the Tribunal Regional Federal da 4a Região-a federal court in southern Brazil, corresponding to the 2nd Instance civil lawsuits completed in 2016. The models were fitted using support vector machine, naive Bayes, random forests, and neural network approaches with categorical predictor variables. The lead time of the 2nd Instance judgment was selected as the response variable measured in days and categorized in bands. The comparison among the models showed that the support vector machine and random forest approaches produced measurements that were superior to those of the other models. The evaluation of the models was made using k-fold cross-validation similar to that applied to the test models.

Lost in translation: Review of identification bias, translation bias and research waste in dentistry.

PubMed

Layton, Danielle M; Clarke, Michael

2016-01-01

To review how articles are retrieved from bibliographic databases, what article identification and translation problems have affected research, and how these problems can contribute to research waste and affect clinical practice. This literature review sought and appraised articles regarding identification- and translation-bias in the medical and dental literature, which limit the ability of users to find research articles and to use these in practice. Articles can be retrieved from bibliographic databases by performing a word or index-term (for example, MeSH for MEDLINE) search. Identification of articles is challenging when it is not clear which words are most relevant, and which terms have been allocated to indexing fields. Poor reporting quality of abstracts and articles has been reported across the medical literature at large. Specifically in dentistry, research regarding time-to-event survival analyses found the allocation of MeSH terms to be inconsistent and inaccurate, important words were omitted from abstracts by authors, and the quality of reporting in the body of articles was generally poor. These shortcomings mean that articles will be difficult to identify, and difficult to understand if found. Use of specialized electronic search strategies can decrease identification bias, and use of tailored reporting guidelines can decrease translation bias. Research that cannot be found, or cannot be used results in research waste, and undermines clinical practice. Identification- and translation-bias have been shown to affect time-to-event dental articles, are likely affect other fields of research, and are largely unrecognized by authors and evidence seekers alike. By understanding that the problems exist, solutions can be sought to improve identification and translation of our research. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of subcallosal cingulate deep brain stimulation on negative self-bias in patients with treatment-resistant depression.

PubMed

Hilimire, Matthew R; Mayberg, Helen S; Holtzheimer, Paul E; Broadway, James M; Parks, Nathan A; DeVylder, Jordan E; Corballis, Paul M

2015-01-01

The cognitive neuropsychological model states that antidepressant treatment alters emotional biases early in treatment, and after this initial change in emotional processing, environmental and social interactions allow for long-term/sustained changes in mood and behavior. Changes in negative self-bias after chronic subcallosal cingulate (SCC) deep brain stimulation (DBS) were investigated with the hypothesis that treatment would lead to changes in emotional biases followed by changes in symptom severity. Patients (N = 7) with treatment-resistant depression were assessed at three time points: pre-treatment; after one month stimulation; and after six months stimulation. The P1, P2, P3, and LPP (late positive potential) components of the event-related potential elicited by positive and negative trait adjectives were recorded in both a self-referential task and a general emotion recognition task. Results indicate that DBS reduced automatic attentional bias toward negative words early in treatment, as indexed by the P1 component, and controlled processing of negative words later in treatment, as indexed by the P3 component. Reduction in negative words endorsed as self-descriptive after six months DBS was associated with reduced depression severity after six months DBS. Change in emotional processing may be restricted to the self-referential task. Together, these results suggest that the cognitive neuropsychological model, developed to explain the time-course of monoamine antidepressant treatment, may also be used as a framework to interpret the antidepressant effects of SCC DBS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Leadership emergence over time in short-lived groups: Integrating expectations states theory with temporal person-perception and self-serving bias.

PubMed

Kalish, Yuval; Luria, Gil

2016-10-01

Research into leadership emergence typically focuses on the attributes of the emergent leader. By considering also the attributes of perceivers and the passage of time, we develop a more complete theory of leadership emergence in short-lived groups. Using expectation states theory as an overarching theoretical framework, and integrating it with the surface- and deep-level diversity literature and with theories of self-serving biases, we examine the predictors of leadership emergence in short timeframes. We conduct a field study in a military assessment boot camp (a pilot study, n = 60; and a main study, n = 89). We use cross-sectional and longitudinal exponential random graph models to analyze data on participants' abilities and on their perceptions of who, in their respective groups, were "leaders." We find that the criteria by which people perceive leadership in others change over time, from easily noticeable attributes to covert leadership-relevant attributes, and that people also rely on leadership-relevant attributes that they possess at high levels to inform their perceptions of leadership in others. The integration of expectation states theory, attribute salience over time and theories of self-serving bias is needed for a full understanding of leadership emergence in groups, because perceivers' own abilities are instrumental in shaping their perceptions of emergent leadership over time. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Small-world bias of correlation networks: From brain to climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Jajcay, Nikola; Tomeček, David; Tintěra, Jaroslav; Paluš, Milan

2017-03-01

Complex systems are commonly characterized by the properties of their graph representation. Dynamical complex systems are then typically represented by a graph of temporal dependencies between time series of state variables of their subunits. It has been shown recently that graphs constructed in this way tend to have relatively clustered structure, potentially leading to spurious detection of small-world properties even in the case of systems with no or randomly distributed true interactions. However, the strength of this bias depends heavily on a range of parameters and its relevance for real-world data has not yet been established. In this work, we assess the relevance of the bias using two examples of multivariate time series recorded in natural complex systems. The first is the time series of local brain activity as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging in resting healthy human subjects, and the second is the time series of average monthly surface air temperature coming from a large reanalysis of climatological data over the period 1948-2012. In both cases, the clustering in the thresholded correlation graph is substantially higher compared with a realization of a density-matched random graph, while the shortest paths are relatively short, showing thus distinguishing features of small-world structure. However, comparable or even stronger small-world properties were reproduced in correlation graphs of model processes with randomly scrambled interconnections. This suggests that the small-world properties of the correlation matrices of these real-world systems indeed do not reflect genuinely the properties of the underlying interaction structure, but rather result from the inherent properties of correlation matrix.

Small-world bias of correlation networks: From brain to climate.

PubMed

Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Jajcay, Nikola; Tomeček, David; Tintěra, Jaroslav; Paluš, Milan

2017-03-01

Complex systems are commonly characterized by the properties of their graph representation. Dynamical complex systems are then typically represented by a graph of temporal dependencies between time series of state variables of their subunits. It has been shown recently that graphs constructed in this way tend to have relatively clustered structure, potentially leading to spurious detection of small-world properties even in the case of systems with no or randomly distributed true interactions. However, the strength of this bias depends heavily on a range of parameters and its relevance for real-world data has not yet been established. In this work, we assess the relevance of the bias using two examples of multivariate time series recorded in natural complex systems. The first is the time series of local brain activity as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging in resting healthy human subjects, and the second is the time series of average monthly surface air temperature coming from a large reanalysis of climatological data over the period 1948-2012. In both cases, the clustering in the thresholded correlation graph is substantially higher compared with a realization of a density-matched random graph, while the shortest paths are relatively short, showing thus distinguishing features of small-world structure. However, comparable or even stronger small-world properties were reproduced in correlation graphs of model processes with randomly scrambled interconnections. This suggests that the small-world properties of the correlation matrices of these real-world systems indeed do not reflect genuinely the properties of the underlying interaction structure, but rather result from the inherent properties of correlation matrix.

Detecting and removing multiplicative spatial bias in high-throughput screening technologies.

PubMed

Caraus, Iurie; Mazoure, Bogdan; Nadon, Robert; Makarenkov, Vladimir

2017-10-15

Considerable attention has been paid recently to improve data quality in high-throughput screening (HTS) and high-content screening (HCS) technologies widely used in drug development and chemical toxicity research. However, several environmentally- and procedurally-induced spatial biases in experimental HTS and HCS screens decrease measurement accuracy, leading to increased numbers of false positives and false negatives in hit selection. Although effective bias correction methods and software have been developed over the past decades, almost all of these tools have been designed to reduce the effect of additive bias only. Here, we address the case of multiplicative spatial bias. We introduce three new statistical methods meant to reduce multiplicative spatial bias in screening technologies. We assess the performance of the methods with synthetic and real data affected by multiplicative spatial bias, including comparisons with current bias correction methods. We also describe a wider data correction protocol that integrates methods for removing both assay and plate-specific spatial biases, which can be either additive or multiplicative. The methods for removing multiplicative spatial bias and the data correction protocol are effective in detecting and cleaning experimental data generated by screening technologies. As our protocol is of a general nature, it can be used by researchers analyzing current or next-generation high-throughput screens. The AssayCorrector program, implemented in R, is available on CRAN. makarenkov.vladimir@uqam.ca. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Expectancy bias mediates the link between social anxiety and memory bias for social evaluation

PubMed Central

Caouette, Justin D.; Ruiz, Sarah K.; Lee, Clinton C.; Anbari, Zainab; Schriber, Roberta A.; Guyer, Amanda E.

2014-01-01

Social anxiety (SA) involves a multitude of cognitive symptoms related to fear of evaluation, including expectancy and memory biases. We examined whether memory biases are influenced by expectancy biases for social feedback in SA. We hypothesized that, faced with a socially evaluative event, people with higher SA would show a negative expectancy bias for future feedback. Furthermore, we predicted that memory bias for feedback in SA would be mediated by expectancy bias. Ninety-four undergraduate students (55 women, mean age = 19.76 years) underwent a two-visit task that measured expectations about (Visit 1) and memory of (Visit 2) feedback from unknown peers. Results showed that higher levels of SA were associated with negative expectancy bias. An indirect relationship was found between SA and memory bias that was mediated by expectancy bias. The results suggest that expectancy biases are in the causal path from SA to negative memory biases for social evaluation. PMID:25252925

Forward-biased nanophotonic detector for ultralow-energy dissipation receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nozaki, Kengo; Matsuo, Shinji; Fujii, Takuro; Takeda, Koji; Shinya, Akihiko; Kuramochi, Eiichi; Notomi, Masaya

2018-04-01

Generally, reverse-biased photodetectors (PDs) are used for high-speed optical receivers. The forward voltage region is only utilized in solar-cells, and this photovoltaic operation would not be concurrently obtained with high efficiency and high speed operation. Here we report that photonic-crystal waveguide PDs enable forward-biased high-speed operation at 40 Gbit/s with keeping high responsivity (0.88 A/W). Within our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of the forward-biased PDs with high responsivity. This achievement is attributed to the ultracompactness of our PD and the strong light confinement within the absorber and depleted regions, thereby enabling efficient photo-carrier generation and fast extraction. This result indicates that it is possible to construct a high-speed and ultracompact photo-receiver without an electrical amplifier nor an external bias circuit. Since there is no electrical energy required, our estimation shows that the consumption energy is just the optical energy of the injected signal pulse which is about 1 fJ/bit. Hence, it will lead to an ultimately efficient and highly integrable optical-to-electrical converter in a chip, which will be a key ingredient for dense nanophotonic communication and processors.

The source of the truth bias: Heuristic processing?

PubMed

Street, Chris N H; Masip, Jaume

2015-06-01

People believe others are telling the truth more often than they actually are; this is called the truth bias. Surprisingly, when a speaker is judged at multiple points across their statement the truth bias declines. Previous claims argue this is evidence of a shift from (biased) heuristic processing to (reasoned) analytical processing. In four experiments we contrast the heuristic-analytic model (HAM) with alternative accounts. In Experiment 1, the decrease in truth responding was not the result of speakers appearing more deceptive, but was instead attributable to the rater's processing style. Yet contrary to HAMs, across three experiments we found the decline in bias was not related to the amount of processing time available (Experiments 1-3) or the communication channel (Experiment 2). In Experiment 4 we found support for a new account: that the bias reflects whether raters perceive the statement to be internally consistent. © 2015 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Experimental and theoretical determination of sea-state bias in radar altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Robert H.

1991-01-01

The major unknown error in radar altimetry is due to waves on the sea surface which cause the mean radar-reflecting surface to be displaced from mean sea level. This is the electromagnetic bias. The primary motivation for the project was to understand the causes of the bias so that the error it produces in radar altimetry could be calculated and removed from altimeter measurements made from space by the Topex/Poseidon altimetric satellite. The goals of the project were: (1) observe radar scatter at vertical incidence using a simple radar on a platform for a wide variety of environmental conditions at the same time wind and wave conditions were measured; (2) calculate electromagnetic bias from the radar observations; (3) investigate the limitations of the present theory describing radar scatter at vertical incidence; (4) compare measured electromagnetic bias with bias calculated from theory using measurements of wind and waves made at the time of the radar measurements; and (5) if possible, extend the theory so bias can be calculated for a wider range of environmental conditions.

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2018-03-01

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as `assembly bias', is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalo properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. This results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.

Do Young and Old Preschoolers Exhibit Response Bias Due to Different Mechanisms? Investigating Children's Response Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okanda, Mako; Itakura, Shoji

2011-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that younger preschoolers exhibit a yes bias due to underdeveloped cognitive abilities, whereas older preschoolers exhibit a response bias due to other factors. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the response latency to yes-no questions pertaining to familiar and unfamiliar objects in 3- to 6-year-olds. The…

The role of cognitive biases in short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy.

PubMed

Kramer, Ueli; Ortega, Diana; Ambresin, Gilles; Despland, Jean-Nicolas; de Roten, Yves

2018-06-01

The concept of biased thinking - or cognitive biases - is relevant to psychotherapy research and clinical conceptualization, beyond cognitive theories. The present naturalistic study aimed to examine the changes in biased thinking over the course of a short-term dynamic psychotherapy (STDP) and to discover potential links between these changes and symptomatic improvement. This study focuses on 32 self-referred patients consulting for Adjustment Disorder according to DSM-IV-TR. The therapists were experienced psychodynamically oriented psychiatrists and psychotherapists. Coding of cognitive biases (using the Cognitive Errors Rating Scale; CERS) was made by external raters based on transcripts of interviews of psychotherapy; the reliability of these ratings on a randomly chosen 24% of all sessions was established. Based on the Symptom Check List SCL-90-R given before and after, the Reliable Change Index (RCI) was used. The assessment of cognitive errors was done at three time points: early (session 4-7), mid-treatment (session 12-17), and close to the end (after session 20) of the treatment. The results showed that the total frequency of cognitive biases was stable over time (p = .20), which was true both for positive and for negative cognitive biases. In exploring the three main subscales of the CERS, we found a decrease in selective abstraction (p = .02) and an increase in personalization (p = .05). A significant link between RCI scores (outcome) and frequency of positive cognitive biases was found, suggesting that biases towards the positive might have a protective function in psychotherapy. Therapists may be attentive to changes in biased thinking across short-term dynamic psychotherapy for adjustment disorder. Therapists may foster the emergence of positive cognitive biases at mid-treatment for adjustment disorder. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

PubMed

Tversky, A; Kahneman, D

1974-09-27

This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

The others: our biased perspective of eukaryotic genomes

PubMed Central

del Campo, Javier; Sieracki, Michael E.; Molestina, Robert; Keeling, Patrick; Massana, Ramon; Ruiz-Trillo, Iñaki

2015-01-01

Understanding the origin and evolution of the eukaryotic cell and the full diversity of eukaryotes is relevant to many biological disciplines. However, our current understanding of eukaryotic genomes is extremely biased, leading to a skewed view of eukaryotic biology. We argue that a phylogeny-driven initiative to cover the full eukaryotic diversity is needed to overcome this bias. We encourage the community: (i) to sequence a representative of the neglected groups available at public culture collections, (ii) to increase our culturing efforts, and (iii) to embrace single cell genomics to access organisms refractory to propagation in culture. We hope that the community will welcome this proposal, explore the approaches suggested, and join efforts to sequence the full diversity of eukaryotes. PMID:24726347

A machine learning model with human cognitive biases capable of learning from small and biased datasets.

PubMed

Taniguchi, Hidetaka; Sato, Hiroshi; Shirakawa, Tomohiro

2018-05-09

Human learners can generalize a new concept from a small number of samples. In contrast, conventional machine learning methods require large amounts of data to address the same types of problems. Humans have cognitive biases that promote fast learning. Here, we developed a method to reduce the gap between human beings and machines in this type of inference by utilizing cognitive biases. We implemented a human cognitive model into machine learning algorithms and compared their performance with the currently most popular methods, naïve Bayes, support vector machine, neural networks, logistic regression and random forests. We focused on the task of spam classification, which has been studied for a long time in the field of machine learning and often requires a large amount of data to obtain high accuracy. Our models achieved superior performance with small and biased samples in comparison with other representative machine learning methods.

Look who's talking! Facial appearance can bias source monitoring.

PubMed

Nash, Robert A; Bryer, Olwen M; Schlaghecken, Friederike

2010-05-01

When we see a stranger's face we quickly form impressions of his or her personality, and expectations of how the stranger might behave. Might these intuitive character judgements bias source monitoring? Participants read headlines "reported" by a trustworthy- and an untrustworthy-looking reporter. Subsequently, participants recalled which reporter provided each headline. Source memory for likely-sounding headlines was most accurate when a trustworthy-looking reporter had provided the headlines. Conversely, source memory for unlikely-sounding headlines was most accurate when an untrustworthy-looking reporter had provided the headlines. This bias appeared to be driven by the use of decision criteria during retrieval rather than differences in memory encoding. Nevertheless, the bias was apparently unrelated to variations in subjective confidence. These results show for the first time that intuitive, stereotyped judgements of others' appearance can bias memory attributions analogously to the biases that occur when people receive explicit information to distinguish sources. We suggest possible real-life consequences of these stereotype-driven source-monitoring biases.

Visuospatial asymmetries and emotional valence influence mental time travel.

PubMed

Thomas, Nicole A; Takarangi, Melanie K T

2018-06-01

Spatial information is tightly intertwined with temporal and valence-based information. Namely, "past" is represented on the left, and "future" on the right, along a horizontal mental timeline. Similarly, right is associated with positive, whereas left is negative. We developed a novel task to examine the effects of emotional valence and temporal distance on mental representations of time. We compared positivity biases, where positive events are positioned closer to now, and right hemisphere emotion biases, where negative events are positioned to the left. When the entire life span was used, a positivity bias emerged; positive events were closer to now. When timeline length was reduced, positivity and right hemisphere emotion biases were consistent for past events. In contrast, positive and negative events were equidistant from now in the future condition, suggesting positivity and right hemisphere emotion biases opposed one another, leading events to be positioned at a similar distance. We then reversed the timeline by moving past to the right and future to the left. Positivity biases in the past condition were eliminated, and negative events were placed slightly closer to now in the future condition. We conclude that an underlying left-to-right mental representation of time is necessary for positivity biases to emerge for past events; however, our mental representations of future events are inconsistent with positivity biases. These findings point to an important difference in the way in which we represent the past and the future on our mental timeline. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimation and correction of visibility bias in aerial surveys of wintering ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, A.T.; Gerard, P.D.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

2008-01-01

Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wetland cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1?100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias was not influenced by either covariate cited above. We integrated this sightability model into estimation procedures for our sample surveys with weight adjustments derived from probabilities of group detection (estimated by logistic regression) and count bias. To estimate variances of abundance estimates, we used bootstrap resampling of transects included in aerial surveys and data from the bias-correction experiment. When we implemented bias correction procedures on data from a field survey conducted in January 2004, we found bias-corrected estimates of abundance increased 36?42%, and associated standard errors increased 38?55%, depending on species or group estimated. We deemed our method successful for integrating correction of visibility bias in an existing sample survey design for wintering ducks in Mississippi, and we believe this procedure could be implemented in a variety of sampling problems for other locations and species.

A forecasting method to reduce estimation bias in self-reported cell phone data.

PubMed

Redmayne, Mary; Smith, Euan; Abramson, Michael J

2013-01-01

There is ongoing concern that extended exposure to cell phone electromagnetic radiation could be related to an increased risk of negative health effects. Epidemiological studies seek to assess this risk, usually relying on participants' recalled use, but recall is notoriously poor. Our objectives were primarily to produce a forecast method, for use by such studies, to reduce estimation bias in the recalled extent of cell phone use. The method we developed, using Bayes' rule, is modelled with data we collected in a cross-sectional cluster survey exploring cell phone user-habits among New Zealand adolescents. Participants recalled their recent extent of SMS-texting and retrieved from their provider the current month's actual use-to-date. Actual use was taken as the gold standard in the analyses. Estimation bias arose from a large random error, as observed in all cell phone validation studies. We demonstrate that this seriously exaggerates upper-end forecasts of use when used in regression models. This means that calculations using a regression model will lead to underestimation of heavy-users' relative risk. Our Bayesian method substantially reduces estimation bias. In cases where other studies' data conforms to our method's requirements, application should reduce estimation bias, leading to a more accurate relative risk calculation for mid-to-heavy users.

Timescale bias in measuring river migration rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, M.; Belmont, P.; Notebaert, B.

2016-12-01

River channel migration plays an important role in sediment routing, water quality, riverine ecology, and infrastructure risk assessment. Migration rates may change in time and space due to systematic changes in hydrology, sediment supply, vegetation, and/or human land and water management actions. The ability to make detailed measurements of lateral migration over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales has been enhanced from increased availability of historical landscape-scale aerial photography and high-resolution topography (HRT). Despite a surge in the use of historical and contemporary aerial photograph sequences in conjunction with evolving methods to analyze such data for channel change, we found no research considering the biases that may be introduced as a function of the temporal scales of measurement. Unsteady processes (e.g.; sedimentation, channel migration, width changes) exhibit extreme discontinuities over time and space, resulting in distortion when measurements are averaged over longer temporal scales, referred to as `Sadler effects' (Sadler, 1981; Gardner et al., 1987). Using 12 sets of aerial photographs for the Root River (Minnesota), we measure lateral migration over space (110 km) and time (1937-2013) assess whether bias arises from different measurement scales and whether rates shift systematically with increased discharge over time. Results indicate that measurement-scale biases indeed arise from the time elapsed between measurements. We parsed the study reach into three distinct reaches and examine if/how recent increases in river discharge translate into changes in migration rate.

Does parental anxiety cause biases in the processing of child-relevant threat material?

PubMed

Cartwright-Hatton, Sam; Abeles, Paul; Dixon, Clare; Holliday, Christine; Hills, Becky

2014-06-01

Anxiety leads to biases in processing personally relevant information. This study set out to examine whether anxious parents also experience biases in processing child-relevant material. Ninety parents acted as a control condition, or received a social anxiety or child-related anxiety induction. They completed a task examining attentional biases in relation to child-threat words and social-threat words, and a task examining ability to categorize emotion in children's faces and voices. There was a trend indicating group differences in attentional bias towards social-threat words, and this appears to have been only in the social anxiety condition, but not the child anxiety or control conditions. For child-threat words, attentional bias was present in the child anxiety condition, but not the social anxiety or control conditions. In the emotion recognition task, there was no difference between the control and child anxiety conditions, but the social anxiety condition were more likely to erroneously label children's faces and voices as sad. Parents' anxious biases may spill over into their child's world. Parents' anxious biases may spill over into their child's world. Anxious parents may have attentional biases towards threats in their children's environment. Anxious parents may over-attribute negative emotion to children. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Scanning of speechless comics changes spatial biases in mental model construction.

PubMed

Román, Antonio; Flumini, Andrea; Santiago, Julio

2018-08-05

The mental representation of both time and number shows lateral spatial biases, which can be affected by habitual reading and writing direction. However, this effect is in place before children begin to read. One potential early cause is the experiences of looking at picture books together with a carer, as those images also follow the directionality of the script. What is the underlying mechanism for this effect? In the present study, we test the possibility that such experiences induce spatial biases in mental model construction, a mechanism which is a good candidate to induce the biases observed with numbers and times. We presented a speechless comic in either standard (left-to-right) or mirror-reversed (right-to-left) form to adult Spanish participants. We then asked them to draw the scene depicted by sentences like 'the square is between the cross and the circle'. The position of the lateral objects in these drawings reveals the spatial biases at work when building mental models in working memory. Under conditions of highly consistent directionality, the mirror comic changed pre-existing lateral biases. Processes of mental model construction in working memory stand as a potential mechanism for the generation of spatial biases for time and number.This article is part of the theme issue 'Varieties of abstract concepts: development, use and representation in the brain'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Manufacturing an advanced process characterization reticle incorporating halftone biasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Kent H.; Van Den Broeke, Douglas J.; Chen, J. Fung; Laidig, Thomas L.; Wampler, Kurt E.; Caldwell, Roger F.

1999-04-01

As the semiconductor roadmap continues to require imaging of smaller feature son wafers, we continue to explore new approaches in OPC strategies to extend the lifespan of existing technology. In this paper, we study a new OPC technology, called halftone biasing, and its application on an OPC characterization reticle, designed by MicroUnity Systems Engineering, Inc. The RTP9 test reticle is the latest in a series of 'LineSweeper' characterization reticles. Each reticle contains a wide range of line width sand pitches, each with several alternative OPC treatments, including references cases, scattering bars, and fine biasing. One of RTP9's design requirements was to support very fine, incremental biases for densely-pitched lines. Ordinarily, this would dictate a reduced address unit and with it the costly penalty of a square-law increase in e- beam write time. RTP9 incorporates a new OPC strategy, called halftone biasing, which has been proposed to address this problem. Taking advantage of optical reduction printing, this technique applies a sub-resolution halftone screen to the edges of figures to accomplish fine biasing equivalent to using an address unit one-fourth of the size of the actual e-beam writing grid. The resulting edge structure has some of the characteristics of aggressive OPC structures, but can be used in areas where traditional scattering bars cannot be placed. The trade-off between the faster write times achieved and the inflation of pattern file size is examined. The manufacturability and inspectability of halftone-biased lines on the RTP9 test reticle are explored. Pattern fidelity is examined using both optical and SEM tools. Printed 0.18 micrometers DUV resist line edge profiles are compared for both halftone and non- halftone feature edges. The CD uniformity of the OPC features, and result of die-to-database inspection are reported. The application of halftone biasing to real circuits, including the impact of data volume and saved write time

Use of Six Sigma Methodology to Reduce Appointment Lead-Time in Obstetrics Outpatient Department.

PubMed

Ortiz Barrios, Miguel A; Felizzola Jiménez, Heriberto

2016-10-01

This paper focuses on the issue of longer appointment lead-time in the obstetrics outpatient department of a maternal-child hospital in Colombia. Because of extended appointment lead-time, women with high-risk pregnancy could develop severe complications in their health status and put their babies at risk. This problem was detected through a project selection process explained in this article and to solve it, Six Sigma methodology has been used. First, the process was defined through a SIPOC diagram to identify its input and output variables. Second, six sigma performance indicators were calculated to establish the process baseline. Then, a fishbone diagram was used to determine the possible causes of the problem. These causes were validated with the aid of correlation analysis and other statistical tools. Later, improvement strategies were designed to reduce appointment lead-time in this department. Project results evidenced that average appointment lead-time reduced from 6,89 days to 4,08 days and the deviation standard dropped from 1,57 days to 1,24 days. In this way, the hospital will serve pregnant women faster, which represents a risk reduction of perinatal and maternal mortality.

Queries for Bias Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, Diana F.

1992-01-01

Selecting a good bias prior to concept learning can be difficult. Therefore, dynamic bias adjustment is becoming increasingly popular. Current dynamic bias adjustment systems, however, are limited in their ability to identify erroneous assumptions about the relationship between the bias and the target concept. Without proper diagnosis, it is difficult to identify and then remedy faulty assumptions. We have developed an approach that makes these assumptions explicit, actively tests them with queries to an oracle, and adjusts the bias based on the test results.

Bias of apparent tracer ages in heterogeneous environments.

PubMed

McCallum, James L; Cook, Peter G; Simmons, Craig T; Werner, Adrian D

2014-01-01

The interpretation of apparent ages often assumes that a water sample is composed of a single age. In heterogeneous aquifers, apparent ages estimated with environmental tracer methods do not reflect mean water ages because of the mixing of waters from many flow paths with different ages. This is due to nonlinear variations in atmospheric concentrations of the tracer with time resulting in biases of mixed concentrations used to determine apparent ages. The bias of these methods is rarely reported and has not been systematically evaluated in heterogeneous settings. We simulate residence time distributions (RTDs) and environmental tracers CFCs, SF6 , (85) Kr, and (39) Ar in synthetic heterogeneous confined aquifers and compare apparent ages to mean ages. Heterogeneity was simulated as both K-field variance (σ(2) ) and structure. We demonstrate that an increase in heterogeneity (increase in σ(2) or structure) results in an increase in the width of the RTD. In low heterogeneity cases, widths were generally on the order of 10 years and biases generally less than 10%. In high heterogeneity cases, widths can reach 100 s of years and biases can reach up to 100%. In cases where the temporal variations of atmospheric concentration of individual tracers vary, different patterns of bias are observed for the same mean age. We show that CFC-12 and CFC-113 ages may be used to correct for the mean age if analytical errors are small. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

The Effect of an Increased Convective Entrainment Rate on Indian Monsoon Biases in the Met Office Unified Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Stephanie; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steve; Martin, Gill

2013-04-01

Global circulation models (GCMs) are a key tool for understanding and predicting monsoon rainfall, now and under future climate change. However, many GCMs show significant, systematic biases in their simulation of monsoon rainfall and dynamics that spin up over very short time scales and persist in the climate mean state. We describe several of these biases as simulated in the Met Office Unified Model and show they are sensitive to changes in the convective parameterization's entrainment rate. To improve our understanding of the biases and inform efforts to improve convective parameterizations, we explore the reasons for this sensitivity. We show the results of experiments where we increase the entrainment rate in regions of especially large bias: the western equatorial Indian Ocean, western north Pacific and India itself. We use the results to determine whether improvements in biases are due to the local increase in entrainment or are the remote response of the entrainment increase elsewhere in the GCM. We find that feedbacks usually strengthen the local response, but the local response leads to a different mean state change in different regions. We also show results from experiments which demonstrate the spin-up of the local response, which we use to further understand the response in complex regions such as the Western North Pacific. Our work demonstrates that local application of parameterization changes is a powerful tool for understanding their global impact.

Suppression of turbulent particle flux during biased rotation in LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. A.

2005-10-01

The edge plasma in LAPD is rotated through the application of a bias voltage (typically 100V-200V) between the plasma source cathode and the vacuum vessel wall. Without bias, cross-field turbulent particle transport causes the density profile to extend well past the cathode edge, with a fairly gentle gradient (Ln˜10 cm). As the bias voltage is applied and increased past a threshold value, the measured density profile steepens dramatically (Ln˜2 cm) at a radius near the peak of the flow shear. Turbulent transport flux measurements in this region show that the flux is reduced and then suppressed completely as the threshold is approached. As the bias voltage is increased further, the measured turbulent transport flux reverses direction. The amplitude of the density and azimuthal electric field fluctuations is observed to decrease during biased rotation, the product of the amplitudes decreasing by a factor of 5. However the dominant change appears in the cross-phase, which is altered dramatically, leading to the observed suppression and reversal of the turbulent flux. Detailed two-dimensional turbulent correlation measurements have been performed using the high repetition rate (1 Hz) and high reproducibility of LAPD plasmas. In unbiased plasmas, the correlation is localized to around 5 cm radially and a slightly smaller distance azimuthally (ρs˜0.5-1 cm). During biased rotation, a dramatic increase in the azimuthal correlation is observed, however there is little change in the radial correlation length.

Bayesian and “Anti-Bayesian” Biases in Sensory Integration for Action and Perception in the Size–Weight Illusion

PubMed Central

Brayanov, Jordan B.

2010-01-01

Which is heavier: a pound of lead or a pound of feathers? This classic trick question belies a simple but surprising truth: when lifted, the pound of lead feels heavier—a phenomenon known as the size–weight illusion. To estimate the weight of an object, our CNS combines two imperfect sources of information: a prior expectation, based on the object's appearance, and direct sensory information from lifting it. Bayes' theorem (or Bayes' law) defines the statistically optimal way to combine multiple information sources for maximally accurate estimation. Here we asked whether the mechanisms for combining these information sources produce statistically optimal weight estimates for both perceptions and actions. We first studied the ability of subjects to hold one hand steady when the other removed an object from it, under conditions in which sensory information about the object's weight sometimes conflicted with prior expectations based on its size. Since the ability to steady the supporting hand depends on the generation of a motor command that accounts for lift timing and object weight, hand motion can be used to gauge biases in weight estimation by the motor system. We found that these motor system weight estimates reflected the integration of prior expectations with real-time proprioceptive information in a Bayesian, statistically optimal fashion that discounted unexpected sensory information. This produces a motor size–weight illusion that consistently biases weight estimates toward prior expectations. In contrast, when subjects compared the weights of two objects, their perceptions defied Bayes' law, exaggerating the value of unexpected sensory information. This produces a perceptual size–weight illusion that biases weight perceptions away from prior expectations. We term this effect “anti-Bayesian” because the bias is opposite that seen in Bayesian integration. Our findings suggest that two fundamentally different strategies for the integration of prior

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

DOE PAGES

Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2017-12-01

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as ‘assembly bias’, is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalomore » properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. Lastly, this results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.« less

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as ‘assembly bias’, is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalomore » properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. Lastly, this results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.« less

Validation of methods to control for immortal time bias in a pharmacoepidemiologic analysis of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors in type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Yang, Xilin; Kong, Alice Ps; Luk, Andrea Oy; Ozaki, Risa; Ko, Gary Tc; Ma, Ronald Cw; Chan, Juliana Cn; So, Wing Yee

2014-01-01

Pharmacoepidemiologic analysis can confirm whether drug efficacy in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) translates to effectiveness in real settings. We examined methods used to control for immortal time bias in an analysis of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors as the reference cardioprotective drug. We analyzed data from 3928 patients with type 2 diabetes who were recruited into the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry between 1996 and 2005 and followed up to July 30, 2005. Different Cox models were used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with RAS inhibitors. These HRs were then compared to the HR of 0.92 reported in a recent meta-analysis of RCTs. During a median follow-up period of 5.45 years, 7.23% (n = 284) patients developed CVD and 38.7% (n = 1519) were started on RAS inhibitors, with 39.1% of immortal time among the users. In multivariable analysis, time-dependent drug-exposure Cox models and Cox models that moved immortal time from users to nonusers both severely inflated the HR, and time-fixed models that included immortal time deflated the HR. Use of time-fixed Cox models that excluded immortal time resulted in a HR of only 0.89 (95% CI, 0.68-1.17) for CVD associated with RAS inhibitors, which is closer to the values reported in RCTs. In pharmacoepidemiologic analysis, time-dependent drug exposure models and models that move immortal time from users to nonusers may introduce substantial bias in investigations of the effects of RAS inhibitors on CVD in type 2 diabetes.

Biasing experiments on the Advanced Toroidal Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uckan, T.; Isler, R. C.; Jernigan, T. C.; Lyon, J. F.; Mioduszewski, P. K.; Murakami, M.; Rasmussen, D. A.; Wilgen, J. B.; Aceto, S. C.; Zielinski, J. J.

1992-09-01

Biasing experiments have been carried out in 1 T plasmas with approximately 200 kW of electron cyclotron heating (ECH) in the current-fire Advanced Toroidal Facility (ATF) torsatron. Two rail limiters, one at the top and one at the bottom of the device, located at the last closed flux surface (LCFS), are, biased at positive and negative potentials with respect to the vacuum vessel. When the limiters are positively biased at up to 300 V and the plasma density is controlled with a significantly reduced gas feed, the H(sub alpha) radiation from both the limiter and the wall drops, indicating reduced particle recycling as a result of improved particle confinement. For bias voltages around +100 V, there is almost no change of plasma stored energy W(sub p), but W(sub p) then drops with the higher biasing voltages. Positive biasing has caused the core plasma density profile to become peaked and the electric field to become more negative inside the LCFS. At the same time, edge plasma fluctuations are reduced significantly and their power spectrum becomes less broad. The propagation direction of these electrostatic fluctuations reverses to the ion diamagnetic direction, and their wavelengths become longer. The resulting fluctuation-induced particle flux is also reduced. Power deposition on the limiters is lower as a result of reduced edge plasma density and temperature. Negative biasing yields somewhat less improvement in the particle confinement while having almost no apparent effect on W(sub p) or on the core and the edge plasma density and temperature profiles. Simultaneous measurements of the plasma potential profile indicate almost no significant change. Biasing has almost no effect on the intrinsic impurity levels in the plasma.

Leakage current conduction, hole injection, and time-dependent dielectric breakdown of n-4H-SiC MOS capacitors during positive bias temperature stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Piyas; Mandal, Krishna C.

2017-01-01

The conduction mechanism(s) of gate leakage current JG through thermally grown silicon dioxide (SiO2) films on the silicon (Si) face of n-type 4H-silicon carbide (4H-SiC) has been studied in detail under positive gate bias. It was observed that at an oxide field above 5 MV/cm, the leakage current measured up to 303 °C can be explained by Fowler-Nordheim (FN) tunneling of electrons from the accumulated n-4H-SiC and Poole-Frenkel (PF) emission of trapped electrons from the localized neutral traps located at ≈2.5 eV below the SiO2 conduction band. However, the PF emission current IPF dominates the FN electron tunneling current IFN at oxide electric fields Eox between 5 and 10 MV/cm and in the temperature ranging from 31 to 303 °C. In addition, we have presented a comprehensive analysis of injection of holes and their subsequent trapping into as-grown oxide traps eventually leading to time-dependent dielectric breakdown during electron injection under positive bias temperature stress (PBTS) in n-4H-SiC metal-oxide-silicon carbide structures. Holes were generated in the heavily doped n-type polycrystalline silicon (n+-polySi) gate (anode) as well as in the oxide bulk via band-to-band ionization by the hot-electrons depending on their energy and SiO2 film thickness at Eox between 6 and 10 MV/cm (prior to the intrinsic oxide breakdown field). Transport of hot electrons emitted via both FN and PF mechanisms was taken into account. On the premise of the hole-induced oxide breakdown model, the time- and charge-to-breakdown ( tBD and QBD ) of 8.5 to 47 nm-thick SiO2 films on n-4H-SiC were estimated at a wide range of temperatures. tBD follows the Arrhenius law with activation energies varying inversely with initial applied constant field Eox supporting the reciprocal field ( 1 /E ) model of breakdown irrespective of SiO2 film thicknesses. We obtained an excellent margin (6.66 to 6.33 MV/cm at 31 °C and 5.11 to 4.55 MV/cm at 303 °C) of normal operating field for a 10

Children's racial bias in perceptions of others' pain.

PubMed

Dore, Rebecca A; Hoffman, Kelly M; Lillard, Angeline S; Trawalter, Sophie

2014-06-01

Previous research indicates that American adults, both Black and White, assume a priori that Black people feel less pain than do White people (Trawalter, Hoffman, & Waytz, 2012, PLoS One, 7[11], 1-8). The present work investigates when in development this bias emerges. Five-, 7-, and 10-year-olds first rated the amount of pain they themselves would feel in 10 situations such as biting their tongue or hitting their head. They then rated the amount of pain they believed two other children - a Black child and a White child, matched to the child's gender - would feel in response to the same events. We found that by age 7, children show a weak racial bias and that by age 10, they show a strong and reliable racial bias. Consistent with research on adults, this bias was not moderated by race-related attitudes or interracial contact. This finding is important because knowing the age of emergence can inform the timing of interventions to prevent this bias. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

R-wave peak time at lead II in Chinese healthy adults.

PubMed

Deng, Jinhua; Chen, Tingting; Zeng, Chujuan; Lu, Nan; Zhou, Lihong; Tan, Xuerui; Yu, Min

2016-05-10

Wide QRS complex tachycardia (WCT) is a common arrhythmia. How to differentiate between WCTs is a challenge in clinical practice. Recently R-wave peak time (RWPT) at lead II was reported to be a helpful and simple tool for differentiating WCTs. However, it has remained unknown about the reference range of RWPT at lead II. In present study, we aimed to investigate the reference range of RWPT at lead II in Chinese healthy adults. A retrospective study was conducted in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College in Southern China. Two thousand four hundred healthy adults aged 21-80 years with no history of structural heart diseases were included. RWPT at lead II was determined. Of 2400 healthy adults, 1200 men and 1200 women were included. The differences of age, mean heart rate and mean QRS duration at lead II between male and female were not significant. RWPT ranged from 16 to 42 ms in male while from 16 to 44 ms in female. The 95 % reference range of RWPT in normal male and female are 19.91 ~ 39.55 ms and 21.75 ~ 37.67 ms, respectively. Compared with the female, the male had a significantly longer RWPT at lead II (29.73 ± 5.01 ms vs 29.71 ± 4.06 ms in female, P = 0.000). Our study showed that RWPT at lead II is different between male and female. The male had a significantly longer RWPT at lead II than the female.

Running Performance, VO2max, and Running Economy: The Widespread Issue of Endogenous Selection Bias.

PubMed

Borgen, Nicolai T

2018-05-01

Studies in sport and exercise medicine routinely use samples of highly trained individuals in order to understand what characterizes elite endurance performance, such as running economy and maximal oxygen uptake VO 2max . However, it is not well understood in the literature that using such samples most certainly leads to biased findings and accordingly potentially erroneous conclusions because of endogenous selection bias. In this paper, I review the current literature on running economy and VO 2max , and discuss the literature in light of endogenous selection bias. I demonstrate that the results in a large part of the literature may be misleading, and provide some practical suggestions as to how future studies may alleviate endogenous selection bias.

Measuring temporal stability of positron emission tomography standardized uptake value bias using long-lived sources in a multicenter network.

PubMed

Byrd, Darrin; Christopfel, Rebecca; Arabasz, Grae; Catana, Ciprian; Karp, Joel; Lodge, Martin A; Laymon, Charles; Moros, Eduardo G; Budzevich, Mikalai; Nehmeh, Sadek; Scheuermann, Joshua; Sunderland, John; Zhang, Jun; Kinahan, Paul

2018-01-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) is a quantitative imaging modality, but the computation of standardized uptake values (SUVs) requires several instruments to be correctly calibrated. Variability in the calibration process may lead to unreliable quantitation. Sealed source kits containing traceable amounts of [Formula: see text] were used to measure signal stability for 19 PET scanners at nine hospitals in the National Cancer Institute's Quantitative Imaging Network. Repeated measurements of the sources were performed on PET scanners and in dose calibrators. The measured scanner and dose calibrator signal biases were used to compute the bias in SUVs at multiple time points for each site over a 14-month period. Estimation of absolute SUV accuracy was confounded by bias from the solid phantoms' physical properties. On average, the intrascanner coefficient of variation for SUV measurements was 3.5%. Over the entire length of the study, single-scanner SUV values varied over a range of 11%. Dose calibrator bias was not correlated with scanner bias. Calibration factors from the image metadata were nearly as variable as scanner signal, and were correlated with signal for many scanners. SUVs often showed low intrascanner variability between successive measurements but were also prone to shifts in apparent bias, possibly in part due to scanner recalibrations that are part of regular scanner quality control. Biases of key factors in the computation of SUVs were not correlated and their temporal variations did not cancel out of the computation. Long-lived sources and image metadata may provide a check on the recalibration process.

Calibration of colour gradient bias in shear measurement using HST/CANDELS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Er, X.; Hoekstra, H.; Schrabback, T.; Cardone, V. F.; Scaramella, R.; Maoli, R.; Vicinanza, M.; Gillis, B.; Rhodes, J.

2018-06-01

Accurate shape measurements are essential to infer cosmological parameters from large area weak gravitational lensing studies. The compact diffraction-limited point spread function (PSF) in space-based observations is greatly beneficial, but its chromaticity for a broad-band observation can lead to new subtle effects that could hitherto be ignored: the PSF of a galaxy is no longer uniquely defined and spatial variations in the colours of galaxies result in biases in the inferred lensing signal. Taking Euclid as a reference, we show that this colour gradient bias (CG bias) can be quantified with high accuracy using available multicolour Hubble Space Telescope (HST) data. In particular we study how noise in the HST observations might impact such measurements and find this to be negligible. We determine the CG bias using HST observations in the F606W and F814W filters and observe a correlation with the colour, in line with expectations, whereas the dependence with redshift is weak. The biases for individual galaxies are generally well below 1 per cent, which may be reduced further using morphological information from the Euclid data. Our results demonstrate that CG bias should not be ignored, but it is possible to determine its amplitude with sufficient precision, so that it will not significantly bias the weak lensing measurements using Euclid data.

Interpretation biases in paranoia.

PubMed

Savulich, George; Freeman, Daniel; Shergill, Sukhi; Yiend, Jenny

2015-01-01

Information in the environment is frequently ambiguous in meaning. Emotional ambiguity, such as the stare of a stranger, or the scream of a child, encompasses possible good or bad emotional consequences. Those with elevated vulnerability to affective disorders tend to interpret such material more negatively than those without, a phenomenon known as "negative interpretation bias." In this study we examined the relationship between vulnerability to psychosis, measured by trait paranoia, and interpretation bias. One set of material permitted broadly positive/negative (valenced) interpretations, while another allowed more or less paranoid interpretations, allowing us to also investigate the content specificity of interpretation biases associated with paranoia. Regression analyses (n=70) revealed that trait paranoia, trait anxiety, and cognitive inflexibility predicted paranoid interpretation bias, whereas trait anxiety and cognitive inflexibility predicted negative interpretation bias. In a group comparison those with high levels of trait paranoia were negatively biased in their interpretations of ambiguous information relative to those with low trait paranoia, and this effect was most pronounced for material directly related to paranoid concerns. Together these data suggest that a negative interpretation bias occurs in those with elevated vulnerability to paranoia, and that this bias may be strongest for material matching paranoid beliefs. We conclude that content-specific biases may be important in the cause and maintenance of paranoid symptoms. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biased random walks on Kleinberg's spatial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Gui-Jun; Niu, Rui-Wu

2016-12-01

We investigate the problem of the particle or message that travels as a biased random walk toward a target node in Kleinberg's spatial network which is built from a d-dimensional (d = 2) regular lattice improved by adding long-range shortcuts with probability P(rij) ∼rij-α, where rij is the lattice distance between sites i and j, and α is a variable exponent. Bias is represented as a probability p of the packet to travel at every hop toward the node which has the smallest Manhattan distance to the target node. We study the mean first passage time (MFPT) for different exponent α and the scaling of the MFPT with the size of the network L. We find that there exists a threshold probability pth ≈ 0.5, for p ≥pth the optimal transportation condition is obtained with an optimal transport exponent αop = d, while for 0 < p pth, and increases with L less than a power law and get close to logarithmical law for 0 < p lead to a formation of complex network with a highly efficient structure for navigation although nodes hold null local information with a relatively large probability, which gives a powerful evidence for the reason why many real networks' navigability have small world property.

Circuital characterisation of space-charge motion with a time-varying applied bias

PubMed Central

Kim, Chul; Moon, Eun-Yi; Hwang, Jungho; Hong, Hiki

2015-01-01

Understanding the behaviour of space-charge between two electrodes is important for a number of applications. The Shockley-Ramo theorem and equivalent circuit models are useful for this; however, fundamental questions of the microscopic nature of the space-charge remain, including the meaning of capacitance and its evolution into a bulk property. Here we show that the microscopic details of the space-charge in terms of resistance and capacitance evolve in a parallel topology to give the macroscopic behaviour via a charge-based circuit or electric-field-based circuit. We describe two approaches to this problem, both of which are based on energy conservation: the energy-to-current transformation rule, and an energy-equivalence-based definition of capacitance. We identify a significant capacitive current due to the rate of change of the capacitance. Further analysis shows that Shockley-Ramo theorem does not apply with a time-varying applied bias, and an additional electric-field-based current is identified to describe the resulting motion of the space-charge. Our results and approach provide a facile platform for a comprehensive understanding of the behaviour of space-charge between electrodes. PMID:26133999

Self-face Captures, Holds, and Biases Attention.

PubMed

Wójcik, Michał J; Nowicka, Maria M; Kotlewska, Ilona; Nowicka, Anna

2017-01-01

The implicit self-recognition process may take place already in the pre-attentive stages of perception. After a silent stimulus has captured attention, it is passed on to the attentive stage where it can affect decision making and responding. Numerous studies show that the presence of self-referential information affects almost every cognitive level. These effects may share a common and fundamental basis in an attentional mechanism, conceptualized as attentional bias: the exaggerated deployment of attentional resources to a salient stimulus. A gold standard in attentional bias research is the dot-probe paradigm. In this task, a prominent stimulus (cue) and a neutral stimulus are presented in different spatial locations, followed by the presentation of a target. In the current study we aimed at investigating whether the self-face captures, holds and biases attention when presented as a task-irrelevant stimulus. In two dot-probe experiments coupled with the event-related potential (ERP) technique we analyzed the following relevant ERPs components: N2pc and SPCN which reflect attentional shifts and the maintenance of attention, respectively. An inter-stimulus interval separating face-cues and probes (800 ms) was introduced only in the first experiment. In line with our predictions, in Experiment 1 the self-face elicited the N2pc and the SPCN component. In Experiment 2 in addition to N2pc, an attentional bias was observed. Our results indicate that unintentional self-face processing disables the top-down control setting to filter out distractors, thus leading to the engagement of attentional resources and visual short-term memory.

Beyond attentional bias: a perceptual bias in a dot-probe task.

PubMed

Bocanegra, Bruno R; Huijding, Jorg; Zeelenberg, René

2012-12-01

Previous dot-probe studies indicate that threat-related face cues induce a bias in spatial attention. Independently of spatial attention, a recent psychophysical study suggests that a bilateral fearful face cue improves low spatial-frequency perception (LSF) and impairs high spatial-frequency perception (HSF). Here, we combine these separate lines of research within a single dot-probe paradigm. We found that a bilateral fearful face cue, compared with a bilateral neutral face cue, speeded up responses to LSF targets and slowed down responses to HSF targets. This finding is important, as it shows that emotional cues in dot-probe tasks not only bias where information is preferentially processed (i.e., an attentional bias in spatial location), but also bias what type of information is preferentially processed (i.e., a perceptual bias in spatial frequency). PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Implicit Racial Bias in Medical School Admissions.

PubMed

Capers, Quinn; Clinchot, Daniel; McDougle, Leon; Greenwald, Anthony G

2017-03-01

Implicit white race preference has been associated with discrimination in the education, criminal justice, and health care systems and could impede the entry of African Americans into the medical profession, where they and other minorities remain underrepresented. Little is known about implicit racial bias in medical school admissions committees. To measure implicit racial bias, all 140 members of the Ohio State University College of Medicine (OSUCOM) admissions committee took the black-white implicit association test (IAT) prior to the 2012-2013 cycle. Results were collated by gender and student versus faculty status. To record their impressions of the impact of the IAT on the admissions process, members took a survey at the end of the cycle, which 100 (71%) completed. All groups (men, women, students, faculty) displayed significant levels of implicit white preference; men (d = 0.697) and faculty (d = 0.820) had the largest bias measures (P < .001). Most survey respondents (67%) thought the IAT might be helpful in reducing bias, 48% were conscious of their individual results when interviewing candidates in the next cycle, and 21% reported knowledge of their IAT results impacted their admissions decisions in the subsequent cycle. The class that matriculated following the IAT exercise was the most diverse in OSUCOM's history at that time. Future directions include preceding and following the IAT with more robust reflection and education on unconscious bias. The authors join others in calling for an examination of bias at all levels of academic medicine.

Avoiding Unintended Bias

PubMed Central

VAN RYN, MICHELLE

2017-01-01

Research shows that unintentional bias on the part of physicians can influence the way they treat patients from certain racial and ethnic groups. Most physicians are unaware that they hold such biases, which can unknowingly contribute to inequalities in health care delivery. This article explains why a person’s thoughts and behaviors may not align, and provides strategies for preventing implicit biases from interfering with patient care. PMID:27089675

First time description of early lead failure of the Linox Smart lead compared to other contemporary high-voltage leads.

PubMed

Weberndörfer, Vanessa; Nyffenegger, Tobias; Russi, Ian; Brinkert, Miriam; Berte, Benjamin; Toggweiler, Stefan; Kobza, Richard

2018-05-01

Early lead failure has recently been reported in ICD patients with Linox SD leads. We aimed to compare the long-term performance of the following lead model Linox Smart SD with other contemporary high-voltage leads. All patients receiving high-voltage leads at our center between November 2009 and May 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Lead failure was defined as the occurrence of one or more of the following: non-physiological high-rate episodes, low- or high-voltage impedance anomalies, undersensing, or non-capture. In total, 220 patients were included (Linox Smart SD, n = 113; contemporary lead, n = 107). During a median follow-up of 3.8 years (IQR 1.6-5.9 years), a total of 16 (14 in Linox Smart SD and 2 in contemporary group) lead failures occurred, mostly due to non-physiological high-rate sensing or impedance abnormalities. Lead failure incidence rates per 100 person-years were 2.9 (95% CI 1.7-4.9) and 0.6 (95% CI 0.1-2.3) for Linox Smart SD compared to contemporary leads respectively. Kaplan Meier estimates of 5-year lead failure rates were 14.0% (95% CI 8.1-23.6%) and 1.3% (95% CI 0.2-8.9%), respectively (log-rank p = 0.028). Implantation of a Linox Smart SD lead increased the risk of lead failure with a hazard ratio (HR) of 4.53 (95% CI 1.03-19.95, p = 0.046) and 4.44 (95% CI 1.00-19.77, p = 0.05) in uni- and multivariable Cox models. The new Linox Smart SD lead model was associated with high failure rates and should be monitored closely to detect early signs of lead failure.

Cognitive bias in action: evidence for a reciprocal relation between confirmation bias and fear in children.

PubMed

Remmerswaal, Danielle; Huijding, Jorg; Bouwmeester, Samantha; Brouwer, Marlies; Muris, Peter

2014-03-01

Some cognitive models propose that information processing biases and fear are reciprocally related. This idea has never been formally tested. Therefore, this study investigated the existence of a vicious circle by which confirmation bias and fear exacerbate each other. One-hundred-and-seventy-one school children (8-13 years) were first provided with threatening, ambiguous, or positive information about an unknown animal. Then they completed a computerized information search task during which they could collect additional (negative, positive, or neutral) information about the novel animal. Because fear levels were repeatedly assessed during the task, it was possible to examine the reciprocal relationship between confirmation bias and fear. A reciprocal relation of mutual reinforcement was found between confirmation bias and fear over the course of the experiment: increases in fear predicted subsequent increases in the search for negative information, and increases in the search for negative information further enhanced fear on a later point-in-time. In addition, the initial information given about the animals successfully induced diverging fear levels in the children, and determined their first inclination to search for additional information. As this study employed a community sample of primary school children, future research should test whether these results can be generalized to clinically anxious youth. These findings provide first support for the notion that fearful individuals may become trapped in a vicious circle in which fear and a fear-related confirmation bias mutually strengthen each other, thereby maintaining the anxiety pathology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum Likelihood Estimations and EM Algorithms with Length-biased Data

PubMed Central

Qin, Jing; Ning, Jing; Liu, Hao; Shen, Yu

2012-01-01

SUMMARY Length-biased sampling has been well recognized in economics, industrial reliability, etiology applications, epidemiological, genetic and cancer screening studies. Length-biased right-censored data have a unique data structure different from traditional survival data. The nonparametric and semiparametric estimations and inference methods for traditional survival data are not directly applicable for length-biased right-censored data. We propose new expectation-maximization algorithms for estimations based on full likelihoods involving infinite dimensional parameters under three settings for length-biased data: estimating nonparametric distribution function, estimating nonparametric hazard function under an increasing failure rate constraint, and jointly estimating baseline hazards function and the covariate coefficients under the Cox proportional hazards model. Extensive empirical simulation studies show that the maximum likelihood estimators perform well with moderate sample sizes and lead to more efficient estimators compared to the estimating equation approaches. The proposed estimates are also more robust to various right-censoring mechanisms. We prove the strong consistency properties of the estimators, and establish the asymptotic normality of the semi-parametric maximum likelihood estimators under the Cox model using modern empirical processes theory. We apply the proposed methods to a prevalent cohort medical study. Supplemental materials are available online. PMID:22323840

Expectancy biases in fear and anxiety and their link to biases in attention.

PubMed

Aue, Tatjana; Okon-Singer, Hadas

2015-12-01

Healthy individuals often exhibit prioritized processing of aversive information, as manifested in enhanced orientation of attention to threatening stimuli compared with neutral items. In contrast to this adaptive behavior, anxious, fearful, and phobic individuals show exaggerated attention biases to threat. In addition, they overestimate the likelihood of encountering their feared stimulus and the severity of the consequences; both are examples of expectancy biases. The co-occurrence of attention and expectancy biases in fear and anxiety raises the question about causal influences. Herein, we summarize findings related to expectancy biases in fear and anxiety, and their association with attention biases. We suggest that evidence calls for more comprehensive research strategies in the investigation of mutual influences between expectancy and attention biases, as well as their combined effects on fear and anxiety. Moreover, both types of bias need to be related to other types of distorted information processing commonly observed in fear and anxiety (e.g., memory and interpretation biases). Finally, we propose new research directions that may be worth considering in developing more effective treatments for anxiety disorders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Hot Limiter Biasing on Tokamak Runaway Discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salar Elahi, A.; Ghoranneviss, M.; Ghanbari, M. R.

2013-10-01

In this research hot limiter biasing effects on the Runaway discharges were investigated. First wall of the tokamak reactors can affects serious damage due to the high energy runaway electrons during a major disruption and therefore its life time can be reduced. Therefore, it is important to find methods to decrease runaway electron generation and their energy. Tokamak limiter biasing is one of the methods for controlling the radial electric field and can induce a transition to an improved confinement state. In this article generation of runaway electrons and the energy they can obtain will be investigated theoretically. Moreover, in order to apply radial biasing an emissive limiter biasing is utilized. The biased limiter can apply +380 V in the status of cold and hot to the plasma and result in the increase of negative bias current in hot status. In fact, in this experiment we try to decrease the generation of runaway electrons and their energy by using emissive limiter biasing inserted on the IR-T1 tokamak. The mean energy of these electrons was obtained by spectroscopy of hard X-ray. Also, the plasma current center shift was measured from the vertical field coil characteristics in presence of limiter biasing. The calculation is made focusing on the vertical field coil current and voltage changes due to a horizontal displacement of plasma column.

Treatment effect on biases in size estimation in spider phobia.

PubMed

Shiban, Youssef; Fruth, Martina B; Pauli, Paul; Kinateder, Max; Reichenberger, Jonas; Mühlberger, Andreas

2016-12-01

The current study investigates biases in size estimations made by spider-phobic and healthy participants before and after treatment. Forty-one spider-phobic and 20 healthy participants received virtual reality (VR) exposure treatment and were then asked to rate the size of a real spider immediately before and, on average, 15days after the treatment. During the VR exposure treatment skin conductance response was assessed. Prior to the treatment, both groups tended to overestimate the size of the spider, but this size estimation bias was significantly larger in the phobic group than in the control group. The VR exposure treatment reduced this bias, which was reflected in a significantly smaller size rating post treatment. However, the size estimation bias was unrelated to the skin conductance response. Our results confirm the hypothesis that size estimation by spider-phobic patients is biased. This bias is not stable over time and can be decreased with adequate treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research on injury compensation and health outcomes: ignoring the problem of reverse causality led to a biased conclusion.

PubMed

Spearing, Natalie M; Connelly, Luke B; Nghiem, Hong S; Pobereskin, Louis

2012-11-01

This study highlights the serious consequences of ignoring reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health outcomes and demonstrates a technique for resolving this problem of observational data. Data from an English longitudinal study on factors, including claims for compensation, associated with recovery from neck pain (whiplash) after rear-end collisions are used to demonstrate the potential for reverse causality bias. Although it is commonly believed that claiming compensation leads to worse recovery, it is also possible that poor recovery may lead to compensation claims--a point that is seldom considered and never addressed empirically. This pedagogical study compares the association between compensation claiming and recovery when reverse causality bias is ignored and when it is addressed, controlling for the same observable factors. When reverse causality is ignored, claimants appear to have a worse recovery than nonclaimants; however, when reverse causality bias is addressed, claiming compensation appears to have a beneficial effect on recovery, ceteris paribus. To avert biased policy and judicial decisions that might inadvertently disadvantage people with compensable injuries, there is an urgent need for researchers to address reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning bias, cultural evolution of language, and the biological evolution of the language faculty.

PubMed

Smith, Kenny

2011-04-01

The biases of individual language learners act to determine the learnability and cultural stability of languages: learners come to the language learning task with biases which make certain linguistic systems easier to acquire than others. These biases are repeatedly applied during the process of language transmission, and consequently should effect the types of languages we see in human populations. Understanding the cultural evolutionary consequences of particular learning biases is therefore central to understanding the link between language learning in individuals and language universals, common structural properties shared by all the world’s languages. This paper reviews a range of models and experimental studies which show that weak biases in individual learners can have strong effects on the structure of socially learned systems such as language, suggesting that strong universal tendencies in language structure do not require us to postulate strong underlying biases or constraints on language learning. Furthermore, understanding the relationship between learner biases and language design has implications for theories of the evolution of those learning biases: models of gene-culture coevolution suggest that, in situations where a cultural dynamic mediates between properties of individual learners and properties of language in this way, biological evolution is unlikely to lead to the emergence of strong constraints on learning.

Disease fatality and bias in survival cohorts.

PubMed

Barry, Vaughn; Klein, Mitchel; Winquist, Andrea; Darrow, Lyndsey A; Steenland, Kyle

2015-07-01

Simulate how the effect of exposure on disease occurrence and fatality influences the presence and magnitude of bias in survivor cohorts, motivated by an actual survivor cohort under study. We simulated a cohort of 50,000 subjects exposed to a disease-causing exposure over time and followed forty years, where disease incidence was the outcome of interest. We simulated this 'inception' cohort under different assumptions about the effect of exposure on disease occurrence and fatality after disease occurrence. We then created a corresponding 'survivor' (or 'cross-sectional') cohort, where cohort enrollment took place at a specific date after exposure began in the inception cohort; subjects dying prior to that enrollment date were excluded. The disease of interest caused all deaths in our simulations, but was not always fatal. In the survivor cohort, person-time at risk began before enrollment for all subjects who did not die prior to enrollment. We compared exposure-disease associations in each inception cohort to those in corresponding survivor cohorts to determine how different assumptions impacted bias in the survivor cohorts. All subjects in both inception and survivor cohorts were considered equally susceptible to the effect of exposure in causing disease. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate effect measures. There was no bias in survivor cohort estimates when case fatality among diseased subjects was independent of exposure. This was true even when the disease was highly fatal and more highly exposed subjects were more likely to develop disease and die. Assuming a positive exposure-response in the inception cohort, survivor cohort rate ratios were biased downwards when case fatality was greater with higher exposure. Survivor cohort effect estimates for fatal outcomes are not always biased, although precision can decrease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Large biases in regression-based constituent flux estimates: causes and diagnostic tools

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

2014-01-01

It has been documented in the literature that, in some cases, widely used regression-based models can produce severely biased estimates of long-term mean river fluxes of various constituents. These models, estimated using sample values of concentration, discharge, and date, are used to compute estimated fluxes for a multiyear period at a daily time step. This study compares results of the LOADEST seven-parameter model, LOADEST five-parameter model, and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model using subsampling of six very large datasets to better understand this bias problem. This analysis considers sample datasets for dissolved nitrate and total phosphorus. The results show that LOADEST-7 and LOADEST-5, although they often produce very nearly unbiased results, can produce highly biased results. This study identifies three conditions that can give rise to these severe biases: (1) lack of fit of the log of concentration vs. log discharge relationship, (2) substantial differences in the shape of this relationship across seasons, and (3) severely heteroscedastic residuals. The WRTDS model is more resistant to the bias problem than the LOADEST models but is not immune to them. Understanding the causes of the bias problem is crucial to selecting an appropriate method for flux computations. Diagnostic tools for identifying the potential for bias problems are introduced, and strategies for resolving bias problems are described.

An interlaboratory comparison of bone lead measurements via K-shell X-ray fluorescence spectrometry: validation against inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

PubMed Central

Bellis, David J.; Todd, Andrew C.

2012-01-01

109Cd-based K-shell X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (hereafter, for brevity, XRF) is used, often in epidemiological studies, to perform non-invasive, in vivo measurements of lead in bone. We conducted the first interlaboratory study of XRF via the circulation of nine goat tibiæ in which the mean lead value ranged from 4.0 µg g−1 to 55.3 µg g−1 bone mineral. The test tibiæ were subsequently analyzed via nitric acid digestion followed by lead determination by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) – along with certified reference materials for bone lead – thus providing measurement traceability to SI units. Analysis of dried bone for lead via nitric acid digestion and ICP-MS yields mass fraction data in units of µg g−1 dry weight. The mean bone lead value based on ICP-MS analysis ranged from 1.8 µg g−1 to 35.8 µg g−1 dry weight. For comparison purposes, XRF-measured Pb values (µg g−1 bone mineral) were converted into the ICP-MS-measured units (µg g−1dry weight bone) by multiplying the former by the average ash fraction from the nine tibiæ. Eight of the XRF systems did not yield a significant bias for any of the nine tibiæ; one system was biased for one of the tibiæ; two systems were biased for two tibiæ; one system was biased for four tibiæ; two systems (813-1 and 804-2) were biased for five tibiæ and one system (801-1) was biased for six of the nine tibiæ. Average bias for the systems (under those particular operating conditions) that were biased for the majority of samples ranged from −2.6 µg g−1 (−15.7%) to 5.1 µg g−1 (30.7%) dry weight bone. All participants now have the ICP-MS data, allowing any corrective actions deemed necessary to be implemented. The ICP-MS data, however, indicated that the lead mass fraction varied considerably with the sampling location within the tibiæ, to the extent of exceeding XRF variability for the higher lead values. Material heterogeneity is an unavoidable reality of

The effect of radio-frequency self bias on ion acceleration in expanding argon plasmas in helicon sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebold, Matthew D.

Time-averaged plasma potential differences up to ˜ 165 V over several hundred Debye lengths are observed in low pressure (pn < 1 mTorr) expanding argon plasmas in the Madison Helicon Experiment. The potential gradient leads to ion acceleration exceeding Ei ≈ 7 kTe in some cases. Up to 1 kW of 13.56 MHz RF power is supplied to a half-turn, double-helix antenna in the presence of a nozzle magnetic field up to 1 kG. An RPA measures the IEDF and an emissive probe measures the plasma potential. Single and double probes measure the electron density and temperature. Two distinct mode hops, the capacitive-inductive (E-H) and inductive-helicon (H-W) transitions, are identified by jumps in electron density as RF power is increased. In the capacitive mode, large fluctuations of the plasma potential (Vp--p ≳ 140 V, Vp--p/Vp ≈ 150%) exist at the RF frequency, leading to formation of a self-bias voltage. The mobile electrons can flow from the upstream region during an RF cycle whereas ions cannot, leading to an initial imbalance of flux, and the self-bias voltage builds as a result. The plasma potential in the expansion chamber is held near the floating potential for argon (Vp ≈ 5kTe/e). In the capacitive mode, the ion acceleration is not well described by an ambipolar relation. The accelerated population decay is consistent with that predicted by charge-exchange collisions. Grounding the upstream endplate increases the self-bias voltage compared to a floating endplate. In the inductive and helicon modes, the ion acceleration more closely follows an ambipolar relation, a result of decreased capacitive coupling due to the decreased RF skin depth. The scaling of the potential gradient with the argon flow rate, magnetic field and RF power are investigated, with the highest potential gradients observed for the lowest flow rates in the capacitive mode. The magnitude of the self-bias voltage agrees well with that predicted for RF sheaths. Use of the self-bias effect in a

Issues in the Analysis of Selectivity Bias. Discussion Papers. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnow, Burt S.; And Others

Selectivity bias arises in program evaluation when the treatment or control status of the subjects is related to unmeasured characteristics that themselves are related to the program outcome under study. This situation has the potential to lead to an incorrect estimation of the treatment effect when assignment to treatment and control groups is…

Bias Correction of Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) using a User-friendly Tool: A Step in Enhancing Technical Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushi, B. R.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Adams, E. C.; Flores, A.; Limaye, A. S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Mithieu, F.; Omondi, S.

2017-12-01

SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative, works to build capacity in Earth observation technologies in developing countries for improved environmental decision making in the arena of: weather and climate, water and disasters, food security and land use/land cover. SERVIR partners with leading regional organizations in Eastern and Southern Africa, Hindu Kush-Himalaya, Mekong region, and West Africa to achieve its objectives. SERVIR develops hydrological applications to address specific needs articulated by key stakeholders and daily rainfall estimates are a vital input for these applications. Satellite-derived rainfall is subjected to systemic biases which need to be corrected before it can be used for any hydrologic application such as real-time or seasonal forecasting. SERVIR and the SWAAT team at the University of Arizona, have co-developed an open-source and user friendly tool of rainfall bias correction approaches for SPPs. Bias correction tools were developed based on Linear Scaling and Quantile Mapping techniques. A set of SPPs, such as PERSIANN-CCS, TMPA-RT, and CMORPH, are bias corrected using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data which incorporates ground based precipitation observations. This bias correction tools also contains a component, which is included to improve monthly mean of CHIRPS using precipitation products of the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) database developed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This tool takes input from command-line which makes it user-friendly and applicable in any operating platform without prior programming skills. This presentation will focus on this bias-correction tool for SPPs, including application scenarios.

Social Categorization on Perception Bias in the Practice of Microteaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Jon-Chao; Hwang, Ming-Yueh; Lu, Chow-Chin; Tsai, Chi-Ruei

2017-02-01

Microteaching has gained considerable attention for its effectiveness in rapid and contextual training in professional development programs. However, the interpretive quality of the teaching demonstration and peer feedback may influence individuals' attribution and self-correction, leading to ineffective learning. In this study, a microteaching workshop in a professional development program for 78 elementary school science teachers was investigated. The results showed that the effectiveness of microteaching was negatively affected by participants' perception bias due to social categorization. Moreover, it was indicated that the participants' perception of the in-group and out-group, classified by the degree of the individuals' science knowledge, fostered social categorization. Participants tended to experience perception conflicts caused by their inability to see personal faults, and a typical perception bias of "seeing one's own strengths and seeing others' shortcomings" was more frequently recognized in the out-group. These results converge to highlight the importance of social categorization in perception bias relevant to microteaching.

Impact of intervention surveillance bias on analyses of child welfare report outcomes.

PubMed

Chaffin, Mark; Bard, David

2006-11-01

Two studies using data from child maltreatment intervention outcome evaluations were conducted examining several aspects of surveillance bias, including directly measuring rates of surveillance reporting, comparing characteristics of surveillance versus nonsurveillance reports, examining differences across service types and doses, and testing how ignoring versus removing surveillance reports in the data affects survival analysis. The net effect of surveillance bias was small in the studies examined. Home-visiting services were not biased more than center-based services, and bias was not greater among intervention compared to prevention cases. Surveillance reports were equally as severe as nonsurveillance reports, failing to support the hypothesis that surveillance serves as early detection of less severe maltreatment. However, surveillance bias was far more substantial during time periods when participants were actively engaged in services. Therefore, the net impact of surveillance could vary with service engagement rates and the relative duration of service engagement and postservice follow-up times.

Validation of Methods to Control for Immortal Time Bias in a Pharmacoepidemiologic Analysis of Renin–Angiotensin System Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Yang, Xilin; Kong, Alice PS; Luk, Andrea OY; Ozaki, Risa; Ko, Gary TC; Ma, Ronald CW; Chan, Juliana CN; So, Wing Yee

2014-01-01

Background Pharmacoepidemiologic analysis can confirm whether drug efficacy in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) translates to effectiveness in real settings. We examined methods used to control for immortal time bias in an analysis of renin–angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors as the reference cardioprotective drug. Methods We analyzed data from 3928 patients with type 2 diabetes who were recruited into the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry between 1996 and 2005 and followed up to July 30, 2005. Different Cox models were used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with RAS inhibitors. These HRs were then compared to the HR of 0.92 reported in a recent meta-analysis of RCTs. Results During a median follow-up period of 5.45 years, 7.23% (n = 284) patients developed CVD and 38.7% (n = 1519) were started on RAS inhibitors, with 39.1% of immortal time among the users. In multivariable analysis, time-dependent drug-exposure Cox models and Cox models that moved immortal time from users to nonusers both severely inflated the HR, and time-fixed models that included immortal time deflated the HR. Use of time-fixed Cox models that excluded immortal time resulted in a HR of only 0.89 (95% CI, 0.68–1.17) for CVD associated with RAS inhibitors, which is closer to the values reported in RCTs. Conclusions In pharmacoepidemiologic analysis, time-dependent drug exposure models and models that move immortal time from users to nonusers may introduce substantial bias in investigations of the effects of RAS inhibitors on CVD in type 2 diabetes. PMID:24747198

Personality traits affecting judgement bias task performance in dogs (Canis familiaris).

PubMed

Barnard, Shanis; Wells, Deborah L; Milligan, Adam D S; Arnott, Gareth; Hepper, Peter G

2018-04-27

Certain personality traits (e.g. anxiousness, fearfulness), are known to affect the cognitive processing of environmental stimuli, such as the judgement of ambiguous stimuli (judgement bias). Our aim was to assess if personality traits are predictive of a more or less 'pessimistic' or 'optimistic' judgement bias in the domestic dog. We assessed dog personality (N = 31) using two validated protocols: the Dog Mentality Assessment (standardised battery test) and the CBARQ (owner-based survey). We used a common task based on the animals' latency to approach a bowl placed in one of three ambiguous positions (Near Positive, Middle, Near Negative) between a baited (Positive) and a non-baited food bowl (Negative) to assess judgement bias. Linear Mixed Model analyses revealed that dogs scoring higher on sociability, excitability and non-social-fear had shorter response latencies to bowls in an ambiguous location, indicating a more 'optimistic' bias. In contrast, dogs scoring higher on separation-related-behaviour and dog-directed-fear/aggression traits were more likely to judge an ambiguous stimulus as leading to a negative outcome, indicating a more 'pessimistic' bias. Results, partially consistent with previous findings in humans, indicate that personality plays a role in the cognitive processing of environmental stimuli in the domestic dog.

Biases in Multicenter Longitudinal PET Standardized Uptake Value Measurements1

PubMed Central

Doot, Robert K; Pierce, Larry A; Byrd, Darrin; Elston, Brian; Allberg, Keith C; Kinahan, Paul E

2014-01-01

This study investigates measurement biases in longitudinal positron-emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) studies that are due to instrumentation variability including human error. Improved estimation of variability between patient scans is of particular importance for assessing response to therapy and multicenter trials. We used National Institute of Standards and Technology-traceable calibration methodology for solid germanium-68/gallium-68 (68Ge/68Ga) sources used as surrogates for fluorine-18 (18F) in radionuclide activity calibrators. One cross-calibration kit was constructed for both dose calibrators and PET scanners using the same 9-month half-life batch of 68Ge/68Ga in epoxy. Repeat measurements occurred in a local network of PET imaging sites to assess standardized uptake value (SUV) errors over time for six dose calibrators from two major manufacturers and for six PET/CT scanners from three major manufacturers. Bias in activity measures by dose calibrators ranged from -50% to 9% and was relatively stable over time except at one site that modified settings between measurements. Bias in activity concentration measures by PET scanners ranged from -27% to 13% with a median of 174 days between the six repeat scans (range, 29 to 226 days). Corresponding errors in SUV measurements ranged from -20% to 47%. SUV biases were not stable over time with longitudinal differences for individual scanners ranging from -11% to 59%. Bias in SUV measurements varied over time and between scanner sites. These results suggest that attention should be paid to PET scanner calibration for longitudinal studies and use of dose calibrator and scanner cross-calibration kits could be helpful for quality assurance and control. PMID:24772207

Mitigating Evidentiary Bias in Planning and Policy-Making Comment on "Reflective Practice: How the World Bank Explored Its Own Biases?"

PubMed

Parkhurst, Justin

2016-07-20

The field of cognitive psychology has increasingly provided scientific insights to explore how humans are subject to unconscious sources of evidentiary bias, leading to errors that can affect judgement and decision-making. Increasingly these insights are being applied outside the realm of individual decision-making to the collective arena of policy-making as well. A recent editorial in this journal has particularly lauded the work of the World Bank for undertaking an open and critical reflection on sources of unconscious bias in its own expert staff that could undermine achievement of its key goals. The World Bank case indeed serves as a remarkable case of a global policy-making agency making its own critical reflections transparent for all to see. Yet the recognition that humans are prone to cognitive errors has been known for centuries, and the scientific exploration of such biases provided by cognitive psychology is now well-established. What still remains to be developed, however, is a widespread body of work that can inform efforts to institutionalise strategies to mitigate the multiple sources and forms of evidentiary bias arising within administrative and policy-making environments. Addressing this gap will require a programme of conceptual and empirical work that supports robust development and evaluation of institutional bias mitigation strategies. The cognitive sciences provides a scientific basis on which to proceed, but a critical priority will now be the application of that science to improve policy-making within those agencies taking responsibility for social welfare and development programmes. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Using Implicit Bias Training to Improve Attitudes toward Women in STEM

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Sarah M.; Hillard, Amy L.; Schneider, Tamera R.

2014-01-01

Implicit biases can foster negative attitudes and lead to damaging stereotypical behaviors. Stereotypes can negatively affect the education, hiring, promotion, and retention of women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). This study evaluated the impact of diversity training on university faculty (N=234) by assessing changes…

Directional Bias and Pheromone for Discovery and Coverage on Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fink, Glenn A.; Berenhaut, Kenneth S.; Oehmen, Christopher S.

2012-09-11

Natural multi-agent systems often rely on “correlated random walks” (random walks that are biased toward a current heading) to distribute their agents over a space (e.g., for foraging, search, etc.). Our contribution involves creation of a new movement and pheromone model that applies the concept of heading bias in random walks to a multi-agent, digital-ants system designed for cyber-security monitoring. We examine the relative performance effects of both pheromone and heading bias on speed of discovery of a target and search-area coverage in a two-dimensional network layout. We found that heading bias was unexpectedly helpful in reducing search time andmore » that it was more influential than pheromone for improving coverage. We conclude that while pheromone is very important for rapid discovery, heading bias can also greatly improve both performance metrics.« less

Memory Errors Reveal a Bias to Spontaneously Generalize to Categories

PubMed Central

Sutherland, Shelbie L.; Cimpian, Andrei; Leslie, Sarah-Jane; Gelman, Susan A.

2014-01-01

Much evidence suggests that, from a young age, humans are able to generalize information learned about a subset of a category to the category itself. Here, we propose that—beyond simply being able to perform such generalizations—people are biased to generalize to categories, such that they routinely make spontaneous, implicit category generalizations from information that licenses such generalizations. To demonstrate the existence of this bias, we asked participants to perform a task in which category generalizations would distract from the main goal of the task, leading to a characteristic pattern of errors. Specifically, participants were asked to memorize two types of novel facts: quantified facts about sets of kind members (e.g., facts about all or many stups) and generic facts about entire kinds (e.g., facts about zorbs as a kind). Moreover, half of the facts concerned properties that are typically generalizable to an animal kind (e.g., eating fruits and vegetables), and half concerned properties that are typically more idiosyncratic (e.g., getting mud in their hair). We predicted that—because of the hypothesized bias—participants would spontaneously generalize the quantified facts to the corresponding kinds, and would do so more frequently for the facts about generalizable (rather than idiosyncratic) properties. In turn, these generalizations would lead to a higher rate of quantified-to-generic memory errors for the generalizable properties. The results of four experiments (N = 449) supported this prediction. Moreover, the same generalizable-versus-idiosyncratic difference in memory errors occurred even under cognitive load, which suggests that the hypothesized bias operates unnoticed in the background, requiring few cognitive resources. In sum, this evidence suggests the presence of a powerful bias to draw generalizations about kinds. PMID:25327964

Effects of limiter biasing on the ATF torsatron

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uckan, T.; Aceto, S. C.; Baylor, L. R.; Bell, J. D.; Bigelow, T. S.; England, A. C.; Harris, J. H.; Isler, R. C.; Jernigan, T. C.; Lyon, J. F.; Ma, C. H.; Mioduszewski, P. K.; Murakami, M.; Rasmussen, D. A.; Wilgen, J. B.; Zielinski, J. J.

1992-12-01

Positive limiter biasing on the currentless ATF torsatron produces a significant increase in the particle confinement with no improvement in the energy confinement. Experiments have been carried out in 1-T plasmas with ˜400 kW of ECH. Two rail limiters located at the last closed flux surface (LCFS), one at the top and one at the bottom of the device, are biased at positive and negative potentials with respect to the vessel. When the limiters are positively biased at up to 300 V, the density increases sharply to the ECH cutoff value. At the same time, the H α radiation drops, indicating that the particle confinement improves. When the density is kept constant, the H α radiation is further reduced and there is almost no change of plasma stored energy. Under these conditions, the density profiles become peaked and the electric field becomes outward-pointing outside the LCFS and more negative inside the LCFS. In contrast, negative biasing yields some reduction of the density and stored energy at constant gas feed, and the plasma potential profile remains the same. Biasing has almost no effect on the intrinsic impurity levels in the plasma.

On the linearity of tracer bias around voids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollina, Giorgia; Hamaus, Nico; Dolag, Klaus; Weller, Jochen; Baldi, Marco; Moscardini, Lauro

2017-07-01

The large-scale structure of the Universe can be observed only via luminous tracers of the dark matter. However, the clustering statistics of tracers are biased and depend on various properties, such as their host-halo mass and assembly history. On very large scales, this tracer bias results in a constant offset in the clustering amplitude, known as linear bias. Towards smaller non-linear scales, this is no longer the case and tracer bias becomes a complicated function of scale and time. We focus on tracer bias centred on cosmic voids, I.e. depressions of the density field that spatially dominate the Universe. We consider three types of tracers: galaxies, galaxy clusters and active galactic nuclei, extracted from the hydrodynamical simulation Magneticum Pathfinder. In contrast to common clustering statistics that focus on auto-correlations of tracers, we find that void-tracer cross-correlations are successfully described by a linear bias relation. The tracer-density profile of voids can thus be related to their matter-density profile by a single number. We show that it coincides with the linear tracer bias extracted from the large-scale auto-correlation function and expectations from theory, if sufficiently large voids are considered. For smaller voids we observe a shift towards higher values. This has important consequences on cosmological parameter inference, as the problem of unknown tracer bias is alleviated up to a constant number. The smallest scales in existing data sets become accessible to simpler models, providing numerous modes of the density field that have been disregarded so far, but may help to further reduce statistical errors in constraining cosmology.

Winning the genetic lottery: biasing birth sex ratio results in more grandchildren.

PubMed

Thogerson, Collette M; Brady, Colleen M; Howard, Richard D; Mason, Georgia J; Pajor, Edmond A; Vicino, Greg A; Garner, Joseph P

2013-01-01

Population dynamics predicts that on average parents should invest equally in male and female offspring; similarly, the physiology of mammalian sex determination is supposedly stochastic, producing equal numbers of sons and daughters. However, a high quality parent can maximize fitness by biasing their birth sex ratio (SR) to the sex with the greatest potential to disproportionately outperform peers. All SR manipulation theories share a fundamental prediction: grandparents who bias birth SR should produce more grandoffspring via the favored sex. The celebrated examples of biased birth SRs in nature consistent with SR manipulation theories provide compelling circumstantial evidence. However, this prediction has never been directly tested in mammals, primarily because the complete three-generation pedigrees needed to test whether individual favored offspring produce more grandoffspring for the biasing grandparent are essentially impossible to obtain in nature. Three-generation pedigrees were constructed using 90 years of captive breeding records from 198 mammalian species. Male and female grandparents consistently biased their birth SR toward the sex that maximized second-generation success. The most strongly male-biased granddams and grandsires produced respectively 29% and 25% more grandoffspring than non-skewing conspecifics. The sons of the most male-biasing granddams were 2.7 times as fecund as those of granddams with a 50∶50 bias (similar results are seen in grandsires). Daughters of the strongest female-biasing granddams were 1.2 times as fecund as those of non-biasing females (this effect is not seen in grandsires). To our knowledge, these results are the first formal test of the hypothesis that birth SR manipulation is adaptive in mammals in terms of grandchildren produced, showing that SR manipulation can explain biased birth SR in general across mammalian species. These findings also have practical implications: parental control of birth SR has the

Blood lead and the symptoms of lead absorption

PubMed Central

Williams, M K; Walford, Joan; King, E

1983-01-01

ABSTRACT Eighty-one percent of all hourly paid men who had been employed for more than six months in a factory making lead acid batteries and plastics completed a modified Cornell medical index health questionnaire. Blood lead and erythrocyte protoporphyrin (EPP) were also measured. The questions were grouped into symptom categories as follows: all physical, all psychological, “potentially lead induced,” pulmonary, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, skin, nervous system, genitourinary, and fatigue. For each symptom category the pooled percentages of men whose symptom scores were above the common median of the three blood lead groups 10-, 40-, and 60 and over μg/100 ml (0·48-, 1·93-, and 2·90 and over μmol/l) within age/smoking subgroups were calculated. In every symptom category the percentages in the two lower blood lead groups differed little, but the percentages were consistently higher in men with blood concentration of 60 μg/100 ml (2·90 μmol/l) and over. Differences between a combined 10-59 μg/100 ml (0·48-2·85 μmol/l) blood lead group and the 60 and over μg/100 ml (≥2·90 μmol/l) group were statistically significant at the 0·01 level for “potentially lead induced” symptoms and at the 0·05 level for skin and psychological symptoms. Broadly similar results were obtained with four log10 EPP groups 0·6-, 1·5-, 1·7-, and ≥2·0, but differences did not reach statistical significance. There was no obvious explanation as to why symptoms that are not found in classic lead poisoning should be increased almost as much as those that are. It was thought that these results could be biased due to the men's knowledge of the symptoms associated with lead exposure, but the possibility that they may be partly due to lead absorption cannot be excluded. PMID:6871117

The Effects of Oncologist Implicit Racial Bias in Racially Discordant Oncology Interactions

PubMed Central

Dovidio, John F.; Gonzalez, Richard; Albrecht, Terrance L.; Chapman, Robert; Foster, Tanina; Harper, Felicity W.K.; Hagiwara, Nao; Hamel, Lauren M.; Shields, Anthony F.; Gadgeel, Shirish; Simon, Michael S.; Griggs, Jennifer J.; Eggly, Susan

2016-01-01

Purpose Health providers’ implicit racial bias negatively affects communication and patient reactions to many medical interactions. However, its effects on racially discordant oncology interactions are largely unknown. Thus, we examined whether oncologist implicit racial bias has similar effects in oncology interactions. We further investigated whether oncologist implicit bias negatively affects patients’ perceptions of recommended treatments (i.e., degree of confidence, expected difficulty). We predicted oncologist implicit bias would negatively affect communication, patient reactions to interactions, and, indirectly, patient perceptions of recommended treatments. Methods Participants were 18 non-black medical oncologists and 112 black patients. Oncologists completed an implicit racial bias measure several weeks before video-recorded treatment discussions with new patients. Observers rated oncologist communication and recorded interaction length of time and amount of time oncologists and patients spoke. Following interactions, patients answered questions about oncologists’ patient-centeredness and difficulty remembering contents of the interaction, distress, trust, and treatment perceptions. Results As predicted, oncologists higher in implicit racial bias had shorter interactions, and patients and observers rated these oncologists’ communication as less patient-centered and supportive. Higher implicit bias also was associated with more patient difficulty remembering contents of the interaction. In addition, oncologist implicit bias indirectly predicted less patient confidence in recommended treatments, and greater perceived difficulty completing them, through its impact on oncologists’ communication (as rated by both patients and observers). Conclusion Oncologist implicit racial bias is negatively associated with oncologist communication, patients’ reactions to racially discordant oncology interactions, and patient perceptions of recommended treatments

Impact of Lead Time and Safety Factor in Mixed Inventory Models with Backorder Discounts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Ming-Cheng; Chao-Hsien Pan, Jason; Lin, Kai-Cing; Hsu, Jia-Wei

This study investigates the impact of safety factor on the continuous review inventory model involving controllable lead time with mixture of backorder discount and partial lost sales. The objective is to minimize the expected total annual cost with respect to order quantity, backorder price discount, safety factor and lead time. A model with normal demand is also discussed. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the procedures of the algorithms and the effects of parameters on the result of the proposed models are analyzed.

A mathematical model of case-ascertainment bias: Applied to case-control studies nested within a randomized screening trial.

PubMed