Swing arm profilometer: analytical solutions of misalignment errors for testing axisymmetric optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Ling; Luo, Xiao; Liu, Zhenyu; Wang, Xiaokun; Hu, Haixiang; Zhang, Feng; Zheng, Ligong; Zhang, Xuejun

2016-07-01

The swing arm profilometer (SAP) has been playing a very important role in testing large aspheric optics. As one of most significant error sources that affects the test accuracy, misalignment error leads to low-order errors such as aspherical aberrations and coma apart from power. In order to analyze the effect of misalignment errors, the relation between alignment parameters and test results of axisymmetric optics is presented. Analytical solutions of SAP system errors from tested mirror misalignment, arm length L deviation, tilt-angle θ deviation, air-table spin error, and air-table misalignment are derived, respectively; and misalignment tolerance is given to guide surface measurement. In addition, experiments on a 2-m diameter parabolic mirror are demonstrated to verify the model; according to the error budget, we achieve the SAP test for low-order errors except power with accuracy of 0.1 μm root-mean-square.

CO2 Flux Estimation Errors Associated with Moist Atmospheric Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parazoo, N. C.; Denning, A. S.; Kawa, S. R.; Pawson, S.; Lokupitiya, R.

2012-01-01

Vertical transport by moist sub-grid scale processes such as deep convection is a well-known source of uncertainty in CO2 source/sink inversion. However, a dynamical link between vertical transport, satellite based retrievals of column mole fractions of CO2, and source/sink inversion has not yet been established. By using the same offline transport model with meteorological fields from slightly different data assimilation systems, we examine sensitivity of frontal CO2 transport and retrieved fluxes to different parameterizations of sub-grid vertical transport. We find that frontal transport feeds off background vertical CO2 gradients, which are modulated by sub-grid vertical transport. The implication for source/sink estimation is two-fold. First, CO2 variations contained in moist poleward moving air masses are systematically different from variations in dry equatorward moving air. Moist poleward transport is hidden from orbital sensors on satellites, causing a sampling bias, which leads directly to small but systematic flux retrieval errors in northern mid-latitudes. Second, differences in the representation of moist sub-grid vertical transport in GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorological fields cause differences in vertical gradients of CO2, which leads to systematic differences in moist poleward and dry equatorward CO2 transport and therefore the fraction of CO2 variations hidden in moist air from satellites. As a result, sampling biases are amplified and regional scale flux errors enhanced, most notably in Europe (0.43+/-0.35 PgC /yr). These results, cast from the perspective of moist frontal transport processes, support previous arguments that the vertical gradient of CO2 is a major source of uncertainty in source/sink inversion.

A method on error analysis for large-aperture optical telescope control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Yanrui; Wang, Qiang; Yan, Fabao; Liu, Xiang; Huang, Yongmei

2016-10-01

For large-aperture optical telescope, compared with the performance of azimuth in the control system, arc second-level jitters exist in elevation under different speeds' working mode, especially low-speed working mode in the process of its acquisition, tracking and pointing. The jitters are closely related to the working speed of the elevation, resulting in the reduction of accuracy and low-speed stability of the telescope. By collecting a large number of measured data to the elevation, we do analysis on jitters in the time domain, frequency domain and space domain respectively. And the relation between jitter points and the leading speed of elevation and the corresponding space angle is concluded that the jitters perform as periodic disturbance in space domain and the period of the corresponding space angle of the jitter points is 79.1″ approximately. Then we did simulation, analysis and comparison to the influence of the disturbance sources, like PWM power level output disturbance, torque (acceleration) disturbance, speed feedback disturbance and position feedback disturbance on the elevation to find that the space periodic disturbance still exist in the elevation performance. It leads us to infer that the problems maybe exist in angle measurement unit. The telescope employs a 24-bit photoelectric encoder and we can calculate the encoder grating angular resolution as 79.1016'', which is as the corresponding angle value in the whole encoder system of one period of the subdivision signal. The value is approximately equal to the space frequency of the jitters. Therefore, the working elevation of the telescope is affected by subdivision errors and the period of the subdivision error is identical to the period of encoder grating angular. Through comprehensive consideration and mathematical analysis, that DC subdivision error of subdivision error sources causes the jitters is determined, which is verified in the practical engineering. The method that analyze error sources from time domain, frequency domain and space domain respectively has a very good role in guiding to find disturbance sources for large-aperture optical telescope.

Pregnant & Lactating Populations Research - NCS Dietary Assessment Literature Review

Cancer.gov

Identifying and studying additional biomarkers of energy and nutrient intake will advance validation efforts and lead to a better understanding of the biases and sources of measurement error in dietary assessment instruments in pregnant or lactating populations.

Sub-nanometer periodic nonlinearity error in absolute distance interferometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hongxing; Huang, Kaiqi; Hu, Pengcheng; Zhu, Pengfei; Tan, Jiubin; Fan, Zhigang

2015-05-01

Periodic nonlinearity which can result in error in nanometer scale has become a main problem limiting the absolute distance measurement accuracy. In order to eliminate this error, a new integrated interferometer with non-polarizing beam splitter is developed. This leads to disappearing of the frequency and/or polarization mixing. Furthermore, a strict requirement on the laser source polarization is highly reduced. By combining retro-reflector and angel prism, reference and measuring beams can be spatially separated, and therefore, their optical paths are not overlapped. So, the main cause of the periodic nonlinearity error, i.e., the frequency and/or polarization mixing and leakage of beam, is eliminated. Experimental results indicate that the periodic phase error is kept within 0.0018°.

Accounting for optical errors in microtensiometry.

PubMed

Hinton, Zachary R; Alvarez, Nicolas J

2018-09-15

Drop shape analysis (DSA) techniques measure interfacial tension subject to error in image analysis and the optical system. While considerable efforts have been made to minimize image analysis errors, very little work has treated optical errors. There are two main sources of error when considering the optical system: the angle of misalignment and the choice of focal plane. Due to the convoluted nature of these sources, small angles of misalignment can lead to large errors in measured curvature. We demonstrate using microtensiometry the contributions of these sources to measured errors in radius, and, more importantly, deconvolute the effects of misalignment and focal plane. Our findings are expected to have broad implications on all optical techniques measuring interfacial curvature. A geometric model is developed to analytically determine the contributions of misalignment angle and choice of focal plane on measurement error for spherical cap interfaces. This work utilizes a microtensiometer to validate the geometric model and to quantify the effect of both sources of error. For the case of a microtensiometer, an empirical calibration is demonstrated that corrects for optical errors and drastically simplifies implementation. The combination of geometric modeling and experimental results reveal a convoluted relationship between the true and measured interfacial radius as a function of the misalignment angle and choice of focal plane. The validated geometric model produces a full operating window that is strongly dependent on the capillary radius and spherical cap height. In all cases, the contribution of optical errors is minimized when the height of the spherical cap is equivalent to the capillary radius, i.e. a hemispherical interface. The understanding of these errors allow for correct measure of interfacial curvature and interfacial tension regardless of experimental setup. For the case of microtensiometry, this greatly decreases the time for experimental setup and increases experiential accuracy. In a broad sense, this work outlines the importance of optical errors in all DSA techniques. More specifically, these results have important implications for all microscale and microfluidic measurements of interface curvature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact and quantification of the sources of error in DNA pooling designs.

PubMed

Jawaid, A; Sham, P

2009-01-01

The analysis of genome wide variation offers the possibility of unravelling the genes involved in the pathogenesis of disease. Genome wide association studies are also particularly useful for identifying and validating targets for therapeutic intervention as well as for detecting markers for drug efficacy and side effects. The cost of such large-scale genetic association studies may be reduced substantially by the analysis of pooled DNA from multiple individuals. However, experimental errors inherent in pooling studies lead to a potential increase in the false positive rate and a loss in power compared to individual genotyping. Here we quantify various sources of experimental error using empirical data from typical pooling experiments and corresponding individual genotyping counts using two statistical methods. We provide analytical formulas for calculating these different errors in the absence of complete information, such as replicate pool formation, and for adjusting for the errors in the statistical analysis. We demonstrate that DNA pooling has the potential of estimating allele frequencies accurately, and adjusting the pooled allele frequency estimates for differential allelic amplification considerably improves accuracy. Estimates of the components of error show that differential allelic amplification is the most important contributor to the error variance in absolute allele frequency estimation, followed by allele frequency measurement and pool formation errors. Our results emphasise the importance of minimising experimental errors and obtaining correct error estimates in genetic association studies.

Performance Analysis of an Inter-Relay Co-operation in FSO Communication System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Himanshu; Aggarwal, Mona; Ahuja, Swaran

2018-04-01

In this work, we analyze the outage and error performance of a one-way inter-relay assisted free space optical link. The assumption of the absence of direct link between the source and destination node is being made for the analysis, and the feasibility of such system configuration is studied. We consider the influence of path loss, atmospheric turbulence and pointing error impairments, and investigate the effect of these parameters on the system performance. The turbulence-induced fading is modeled by independent but not necessarily identically distributed gamma-gamma fading statistics. The closed-form expressions for outage probability and probability of error are derived and illustrated by numerical plots. It is concluded that the absence of line of sight path between source and destination nodes does not lead to significant performance degradation. Moreover, for the system model under consideration, interconnected relaying provides better error performance than the non-interconnected relaying and dual-hop serial relaying techniques.

Gauging Through the Crowd: A Crowd-Sourcing Approach to Urban Rainfall Measurement and Storm Water Modeling Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Pan; Ng, Tze Ling

2017-11-01

Accurate rainfall measurement at high spatial and temporal resolutions is critical for the modeling and management of urban storm water. In this study, we conduct computer simulation experiments to test the potential of a crowd-sourcing approach, where smartphones, surveillance cameras, and other devices act as precipitation sensors, as an alternative to the traditional approach of using rain gauges to monitor urban rainfall. The crowd-sourcing approach is promising as it has the potential to provide high-density measurements, albeit with relatively large individual errors. We explore the potential of this approach for urban rainfall monitoring and the subsequent implications for storm water modeling through a series of simulation experiments involving synthetically generated crowd-sourced rainfall data and a storm water model. The results show that even under conservative assumptions, crowd-sourced rainfall data lead to more accurate modeling of storm water flows as compared to rain gauge data. We observe the relative superiority of the crowd-sourcing approach to vary depending on crowd participation rate, measurement accuracy, drainage area, choice of performance statistic, and crowd-sourced observation type. A possible reason for our findings is the differences between the error structures of crowd-sourced and rain gauge rainfall fields resulting from the differences between the errors and densities of the raw measurement data underlying the two field types.

Big Data and Large Sample Size: A Cautionary Note on the Potential for Bias

PubMed Central

Chambers, David A.; Glasgow, Russell E.

2014-01-01

Abstract A number of commentaries have suggested that large studies are more reliable than smaller studies and there is a growing interest in the analysis of “big data” that integrates information from many thousands of persons and/or different data sources. We consider a variety of biases that are likely in the era of big data, including sampling error, measurement error, multiple comparisons errors, aggregation error, and errors associated with the systematic exclusion of information. Using examples from epidemiology, health services research, studies on determinants of health, and clinical trials, we conclude that it is necessary to exercise greater caution to be sure that big sample size does not lead to big inferential errors. Despite the advantages of big studies, large sample size can magnify the bias associated with error resulting from sampling or study design. Clin Trans Sci 2014; Volume #: 1–5 PMID:25043853

Intuitive theories of information: beliefs about the value of redundancy.

PubMed

Soll, J B

1999-03-01

In many situations, quantity estimates from multiple experts or diagnostic instruments must be collected and combined. Normatively, and all else equal, one should value information sources that are nonredundant, in the sense that correlation in forecast errors should be minimized. Past research on the preference for redundancy has been inconclusive. While some studies have suggested that people correctly place higher value on uncorrelated inputs when collecting estimates, others have shown that people either ignore correlation or, in some cases, even prefer it. The present experiments show that the preference for redundancy depends on one's intuitive theory of information. The most common intuitive theory identified is the Error Tradeoff Model (ETM), which explicitly distinguishes between measurement error and bias. According to ETM, measurement error can only be averaged out by consulting the same source multiple times (normatively false), and bias can only be averaged out by consulting different sources (normatively true). As a result, ETM leads people to prefer redundant estimates when the ratio of measurement error to bias is relatively high. Other participants favored different theories. Some adopted the normative model, while others were reluctant to mathematically average estimates from different sources in any circumstance. In a post hoc analysis, science majors were more likely than others to subscribe to the normative model. While tentative, this result lends insight into how intuitive theories might develop and also has potential ramifications for how statistical concepts such as correlation might best be learned and internalized. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Increasing Safety of a Robotic System for Inner Ear Surgery Using Probabilistic Error Modeling Near Vital Anatomy

PubMed Central

Dillon, Neal P.; Siebold, Michael A.; Mitchell, Jason E.; Blachon, Gregoire S.; Balachandran, Ramya; Fitzpatrick, J. Michael; Webster, Robert J.

2017-01-01

Safe and effective planning for robotic surgery that involves cutting or ablation of tissue must consider all potential sources of error when determining how close the tool may come to vital anatomy. A pre-operative plan that does not adequately consider potential deviations from ideal system behavior may lead to patient injury. Conversely, a plan that is overly conservative may result in ineffective or incomplete performance of the task. Thus, enforcing simple, uniform-thickness safety margins around vital anatomy is insufficient in the presence of spatially varying, anisotropic error. Prior work has used registration error to determine a variable-thickness safety margin around vital structures that must be approached during mastoidectomy but ultimately preserved. In this paper, these methods are extended to incorporate image distortion and physical robot errors, including kinematic errors and deflections of the robot. These additional sources of error are discussed and stochastic models for a bone-attached robot for otologic surgery are developed. An algorithm for generating appropriate safety margins based on a desired probability of preserving the underlying anatomical structure is presented. Simulations are performed on a CT scan of a cadaver head and safety margins are calculated around several critical structures for planning of a robotic mastoidectomy. PMID:29200595

Increasing safety of a robotic system for inner ear surgery using probabilistic error modeling near vital anatomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dillon, Neal P.; Siebold, Michael A.; Mitchell, Jason E.; Blachon, Gregoire S.; Balachandran, Ramya; Fitzpatrick, J. Michael; Webster, Robert J.

2016-03-01

Safe and effective planning for robotic surgery that involves cutting or ablation of tissue must consider all potential sources of error when determining how close the tool may come to vital anatomy. A pre-operative plan that does not adequately consider potential deviations from ideal system behavior may lead to patient injury. Conversely, a plan that is overly conservative may result in ineffective or incomplete performance of the task. Thus, enforcing simple, uniform-thickness safety margins around vital anatomy is insufficient in the presence of spatially varying, anisotropic error. Prior work has used registration error to determine a variable-thickness safety margin around vital structures that must be approached during mastoidectomy but ultimately preserved. In this paper, these methods are extended to incorporate image distortion and physical robot errors, including kinematic errors and deflections of the robot. These additional sources of error are discussed and stochastic models for a bone-attached robot for otologic surgery are developed. An algorithm for generating appropriate safety margins based on a desired probability of preserving the underlying anatomical structure is presented. Simulations are performed on a CT scan of a cadaver head and safety margins are calculated around several critical structures for planning of a robotic mastoidectomy.

Atmospheric opacity in the Schumann-Runge bands and the aeronomic dissociation of water vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frederick, J. E.; Hudson, R. D.

1980-01-01

Knowledge of the aeronomic production of odd hydrogen in the dissociation of water vapor is limited by uncertainties in the penetration of solar irradiance in the Schumann-Runge bands of O2 and by incomplete information concerning the products of photolysis at Lyman alpha. Consideration of all error sources involved in computing the H2O dissociation rate in the wavelength region 175-200 nm leads to an estimated uncertainty of plus or minus 35% at an altitude of 90 km for an overhead sun. The uncertainty increases with decreasing altitude such that the true dissociation rate at 60 km for an overhead sun lies between 0.45 and 1.55 times the results computed using the best input parameters currently available. Calculations of the H2O dissociation rate by Lyman alpha should include the variation in O2 opacity across the solar line width. Neglect of this can lead to errors as large as 50% at altitudes where the process is the major source of odd hydrogen.

Demographics of the gay and lesbian population in the United States: evidence from available systematic data sources.

PubMed

Black, D; Gates, G; Sanders, S; Taylor, L

2000-05-01

This work provides an overview of standard social science data sources that now allow some systematic study of the gay and lesbian population in the United States. For each data source, we consider how sexual orientation can be defined, and we note the potential sample sizes. We give special attention to the important problem of measurement error, especially the extent to which individuals recorded as gay and lesbian are indeed recorded correctly. Our concern is that because gays and lesbians constitute a relatively small fraction of the population, modest measurement problems could lead to serious errors in inference. In examining gays and lesbians in multiple data sets we also achieve a second objective: We provide a set of statistics about this population that is relevant to several current policy debates.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty.

PubMed

de Villemereuil, Pierre; Wells, Jessie A; Edwards, Robert D; Blomberg, Simon P

2012-06-28

Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for phylogenetic comparative analyses, particularly for modelling in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty and accounting for measurement error or individual variation in explanatory variables. Code for all models is provided in the BUGS model description language. PMID:22741602

Fusion of magnetometer and gradiometer sensors of MEG in the presence of multiplicative error.

PubMed

Mohseni, Hamid R; Woolrich, Mark W; Kringelbach, Morten L; Luckhoo, Henry; Smith, Penny Probert; Aziz, Tipu Z

2012-07-01

Novel neuroimaging techniques have provided unprecedented information on the structure and function of the living human brain. Multimodal fusion of data from different sensors promises to radically improve this understanding, yet optimal methods have not been developed. Here, we demonstrate a novel method for combining multichannel signals. We show how this method can be used to fuse signals from the magnetometer and gradiometer sensors used in magnetoencephalography (MEG), and through extensive experiments using simulation, head phantom and real MEG data, show that it is both robust and accurate. This new approach works by assuming that the lead fields have multiplicative error. The criterion to estimate the error is given within a spatial filter framework such that the estimated power is minimized in the worst case scenario. The method is compared to, and found better than, existing approaches. The closed-form solution and the conditions under which the multiplicative error can be optimally estimated are provided. This novel approach can also be employed for multimodal fusion of other multichannel signals such as MEG and EEG. Although the multiplicative error is estimated based on beamforming, other methods for source analysis can equally be used after the lead-field modification.

[Responsibility due to medication errors in France: a study based on SHAM insurance data].

PubMed

Theissen, A; Orban, J-C; Fuz, F; Guerin, J-P; Flavin, P; Albertini, S; Maricic, S; Saquet, D; Niccolai, P

2015-03-01

The safe medication practices at the hospital constitute a major public health problem. Drug supply chain is a complex process, potentially source of errors and damages for the patient. SHAM insurances are the biggest French provider of medical liability insurances and a relevant source of data on the health care complications. The main objective of the study was to analyze the type and cause of medication errors declared to SHAM and having led to a conviction by a court. We did a retrospective study on insurance claims provided by SHAM insurances with a medication error and leading to a condemnation over a 6-year period (between 2005 and 2010). Thirty-one cases were analysed, 21 for scheduled activity and 10 for emergency activity. Consequences of claims were mostly serious (12 deaths, 14 serious complications, 5 simple complications). The types of medication errors were a drug monitoring error (11 cases), an administration error (5 cases), an overdose (6 cases), an allergy (4 cases), a contraindication (3 cases) and an omission (2 cases). Intravenous route of administration was involved in 19 of 31 cases (61%). The causes identified by the court expert were an error related to service organization (11), an error related to medical practice (11) or nursing practice (13). Only one claim was due to the hospital pharmacy. The claim related to drug supply chain is infrequent but potentially serious. These data should help strengthen quality approach in risk management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Dosage uniformity problems which occur due to technological errors in extemporaneously prepared suppositories in hospitals and pharmacies

PubMed Central

Kalmár, Éva; Lasher, Jason Richard; Tarry, Thomas Dean; Myers, Andrea; Szakonyi, Gerda; Dombi, György; Baki, Gabriella; Alexander, Kenneth S.

2013-01-01

The availability of suppositories in Hungary, especially in clinical pharmacy practice, is usually provided by extemporaneous preparations. Due to the known advantages of rectal drug administration, its benefits are frequently utilized in pediatrics. However, errors during the extemporaneous manufacturing process can lead to non-homogenous drug distribution within the dosage units. To determine the root cause of these errors and provide corrective actions, we studied suppository samples prepared with exactly known errors using both cerimetric titration and HPLC technique. Our results show that the most frequent technological error occurs when the pharmacist fails to use the correct displacement factor in the calculations which could lead to a 4.6% increase/decrease in the assay in individual dosage units. The second most important source of error can occur when the molding excess is calculated solely for the suppository base. This can further dilute the final suppository drug concentration causing the assay to be as low as 80%. As a conclusion we emphasize that the application of predetermined displacement factors in calculations for the formulation of suppositories is highly important, which enables the pharmacist to produce a final product containing exactly the determined dose of an active substance despite the different densities of the components. PMID:25161378

Dosage uniformity problems which occur due to technological errors in extemporaneously prepared suppositories in hospitals and pharmacies.

PubMed

Kalmár, Eva; Lasher, Jason Richard; Tarry, Thomas Dean; Myers, Andrea; Szakonyi, Gerda; Dombi, György; Baki, Gabriella; Alexander, Kenneth S

2014-09-01

The availability of suppositories in Hungary, especially in clinical pharmacy practice, is usually provided by extemporaneous preparations. Due to the known advantages of rectal drug administration, its benefits are frequently utilized in pediatrics. However, errors during the extemporaneous manufacturing process can lead to non-homogenous drug distribution within the dosage units. To determine the root cause of these errors and provide corrective actions, we studied suppository samples prepared with exactly known errors using both cerimetric titration and HPLC technique. Our results show that the most frequent technological error occurs when the pharmacist fails to use the correct displacement factor in the calculations which could lead to a 4.6% increase/decrease in the assay in individual dosage units. The second most important source of error can occur when the molding excess is calculated solely for the suppository base. This can further dilute the final suppository drug concentration causing the assay to be as low as 80%. As a conclusion we emphasize that the application of predetermined displacement factors in calculations for the formulation of suppositories is highly important, which enables the pharmacist to produce a final product containing exactly the determined dose of an active substance despite the different densities of the components.

Performance assessment of the BEBIG MultiSource® high dose rate brachytherapy treatment unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Antony; Mzenda, Bongile

2009-12-01

A comprehensive system characterisation was performed of the Eckert & Ziegler BEBIG GmbH MultiSource® High Dose Rate (HDR) brachytherapy treatment unit with an 192Ir source. The unit is relatively new to the UK market, with the first installation in the country having been made in the summer of 2009. A detailed commissioning programme was devised and is reported including checks of the fundamental parameters of source positioning, dwell timing, transit doses and absolute dosimetry of the source. Well chamber measurements, autoradiography and video camera analysis techniques were all employed. The absolute dosimetry was verified by the National Physical Laboratory, UK, and compared to a measurement based on a calibration from PTB, Germany, and the supplied source certificate, as well as an independent assessment by a visiting UK centre. The use of the 'Krieger' dosimetry phantom has also been evaluated. Users of the BEBIG HDR system should take care to avoid any significant bend in the transfer tube, as this will lead to positioning errors of the source, of up to 1.0 mm for slight bends, 2.0 mm for moderate bends and 5.0 mm for extreme curvature (depending on applicators and transfer tube used) for the situations reported in this study. The reason for these errors and the potential clinical impact are discussed. Users should also note the methodology employed by the system for correction of transit doses, and that no correction is made for the initial and final transit doses. The results of this investigation found that the uncorrected transit doses lead to small errors in the delivered dose at the first dwell position, of up to 2.5 cGy at 2 cm (5.6 cGy at 1 cm) from a 10 Ci source, but the transit dose correction for other dwells was accurate within 0.2 cGy. The unit has been mechanically reliable, and source positioning accuracy and dwell timing have been reproducible, with overall performance similar to other existing HDR equipment. The unit is capable of high quality brachytherapy treatment delivery, taking the above factors into account.

Combination of Complex-Based and Magnitude-Based Multiecho Water-Fat Separation for Accurate Quantification of Fat-Fraction

PubMed Central

Yu, Huanzhou; Shimakawa, Ann; Hines, Catherine D. G.; McKenzie, Charles A.; Hamilton, Gavin; Sirlin, Claude B.; Brittain, Jean H.; Reeder, Scott B.

2011-01-01

Multipoint water–fat separation techniques rely on different water–fat phase shifts generated at multiple echo times to decompose water and fat. Therefore, these methods require complex source images and allow unambiguous separation of water and fat signals. However, complex-based water–fat separation methods are sensitive to phase errors in the source images, which may lead to clinically important errors. An alternative approach to quantify fat is through “magnitude-based” methods that acquire multiecho magnitude images. Magnitude-based methods are insensitive to phase errors, but cannot estimate fat-fraction greater than 50%. In this work, we introduce a water–fat separation approach that combines the strengths of both complex and magnitude reconstruction algorithms. A magnitude-based reconstruction is applied after complex-based water–fat separation to removes the effect of phase errors. The results from the two reconstructions are then combined. We demonstrate that using this hybrid method, 0–100% fat-fraction can be estimated with improved accuracy at low fat-fractions. PMID:21695724

Seasonal variability of stratospheric methane: implications for constraining tropospheric methane budgets using total column observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saad, Katherine M.; Wunch, Debra; Deutscher, Nicholas M.; Griffith, David W. T.; Hase, Frank; De Mazière, Martine; Notholt, Justus; Pollard, David F.; Roehl, Coleen M.; Schneider, Matthias; Sussmann, Ralf; Warneke, Thorsten; Wennberg, Paul O.

2016-11-01

Global and regional methane budgets are markedly uncertain. Conventionally, estimates of methane sources are derived by bridging emissions inventories with atmospheric observations employing chemical transport models. The accuracy of this approach requires correctly simulating advection and chemical loss such that modeled methane concentrations scale with surface fluxes. When total column measurements are assimilated into this framework, modeled stratospheric methane introduces additional potential for error. To evaluate the impact of such errors, we compare Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and GEOS-Chem total and tropospheric column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of methane. We find that the model's stratospheric contribution to the total column is insensitive to perturbations to the seasonality or distribution of tropospheric emissions or loss. In the Northern Hemisphere, we identify disagreement between the measured and modeled stratospheric contribution, which increases as the tropopause altitude decreases, and a temporal phase lag in the model's tropospheric seasonality driven by transport errors. Within the context of GEOS-Chem, we find that the errors in tropospheric advection partially compensate for the stratospheric methane errors, masking inconsistencies between the modeled and measured tropospheric methane. These seasonally varying errors alias into source attributions resulting from model inversions. In particular, we suggest that the tropospheric phase lag error leads to large misdiagnoses of wetland emissions in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Structured methods for identifying and correcting potential human errors in aviation operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, W.R.

1997-10-01

Human errors have been identified as the source of approximately 60% of the incidents and accidents that occur in commercial aviation. It can be assumed that a very large number of human errors occur in aviation operations, even though in most cases the redundancies and diversities built into the design of aircraft systems prevent the errors from leading to serious consequences. In addition, when it is acknowledged that many system failures have their roots in human errors that occur in the design phase, it becomes apparent that the identification and elimination of potential human errors could significantly decrease the risksmore » of aviation operations. This will become even more critical during the design of advanced automation-based aircraft systems as well as next-generation systems for air traffic management. Structured methods to identify and correct potential human errors in aviation operations have been developed and are currently undergoing testing at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL).« less

Definition of an Enhanced Map-Matching Algorithm for Urban Environments with Poor GNSS Signal Quality.

PubMed

Jiménez, Felipe; Monzón, Sergio; Naranjo, Jose Eugenio

2016-02-04

Vehicle positioning is a key factor for numerous information and assistance applications that are included in vehicles and for which satellite positioning is mainly used. However, this positioning process can result in errors and lead to measurement uncertainties. These errors come mainly from two sources: errors and simplifications of digital maps and errors in locating the vehicle. From that inaccurate data, the task of assigning the vehicle's location to a link on the digital map at every instant is carried out by map-matching algorithms. These algorithms have been developed to fulfil that need and attempt to amend these errors to offer the user a suitable positioning. In this research; an algorithm is developed that attempts to solve the errors in positioning when the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal reception is frequently lost. The algorithm has been tested with satisfactory results in a complex urban environment of narrow streets and tall buildings where errors and signal reception losses of the GPS receiver are frequent.

Definition of an Enhanced Map-Matching Algorithm for Urban Environments with Poor GNSS Signal Quality

PubMed Central

Jiménez, Felipe; Monzón, Sergio; Naranjo, Jose Eugenio

2016-01-01

Vehicle positioning is a key factor for numerous information and assistance applications that are included in vehicles and for which satellite positioning is mainly used. However, this positioning process can result in errors and lead to measurement uncertainties. These errors come mainly from two sources: errors and simplifications of digital maps and errors in locating the vehicle. From that inaccurate data, the task of assigning the vehicle’s location to a link on the digital map at every instant is carried out by map-matching algorithms. These algorithms have been developed to fulfil that need and attempt to amend these errors to offer the user a suitable positioning. In this research; an algorithm is developed that attempts to solve the errors in positioning when the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal reception is frequently lost. The algorithm has been tested with satisfactory results in a complex urban environment of narrow streets and tall buildings where errors and signal reception losses of the GPS receiver are frequent. PMID:26861320

Medication Errors: New EU Good Practice Guide on Risk Minimisation and Error Prevention.

PubMed

Goedecke, Thomas; Ord, Kathryn; Newbould, Victoria; Brosch, Sabine; Arlett, Peter

2016-06-01

A medication error is an unintended failure in the drug treatment process that leads to, or has the potential to lead to, harm to the patient. Reducing the risk of medication errors is a shared responsibility between patients, healthcare professionals, regulators and the pharmaceutical industry at all levels of healthcare delivery. In 2015, the EU regulatory network released a two-part good practice guide on medication errors to support both the pharmaceutical industry and regulators in the implementation of the changes introduced with the EU pharmacovigilance legislation. These changes included a modification of the 'adverse reaction' definition to include events associated with medication errors, and the requirement for national competent authorities responsible for pharmacovigilance in EU Member States to collaborate and exchange information on medication errors resulting in harm with national patient safety organisations. To facilitate reporting and learning from medication errors, a clear distinction has been made in the guidance between medication errors resulting in adverse reactions, medication errors without harm, intercepted medication errors and potential errors. This distinction is supported by an enhanced MedDRA(®) terminology that allows for coding all stages of the medication use process where the error occurred in addition to any clinical consequences. To better understand the causes and contributing factors, individual case safety reports involving an error should be followed-up with the primary reporter to gather information relevant for the conduct of root cause analysis where this may be appropriate. Such reports should also be summarised in periodic safety update reports and addressed in risk management plans. Any risk minimisation and prevention strategy for medication errors should consider all stages of a medicinal product's life-cycle, particularly the main sources and types of medication errors during product development. This article describes the key concepts of the EU good practice guidance for defining, classifying, coding, reporting, evaluating and preventing medication errors. This guidance should contribute to the safe and effective use of medicines for the benefit of patients and public health.

Identification and Remediation of Phonological and Motor Errors in Acquired Sound Production Impairment

PubMed Central

Gagnon, Bernadine; Miozzo, Michele

2017-01-01

Purpose This study aimed to test whether an approach to distinguishing errors arising in phonological processing from those arising in motor planning also predicts the extent to which repetition-based training can lead to improved production of difficult sound sequences. Method Four individuals with acquired speech production impairment who produced consonant cluster errors involving deletion were examined using a repetition task. We compared the acoustic details of productions with deletion errors in target consonant clusters to singleton consonants. Changes in accuracy over the course of the study were also compared. Results Two individuals produced deletion errors consistent with a phonological locus of the errors, and 2 individuals produced errors consistent with a motoric locus of the errors. The 2 individuals who made phonologically driven errors showed no change in performance on a repetition training task, whereas the 2 individuals with motoric errors improved in their production of both trained and untrained items. Conclusions The results extend previous findings about a metric for identifying the source of sound production errors in individuals with both apraxia of speech and aphasia. In particular, this work may provide a tool for identifying predominant error types in individuals with complex deficits. PMID:28655044

Analysis of total copper, cadmium and lead in refuse-derived fuels (RDF): study on analytical errors using synthetic samples.

PubMed

Skutan, Stefan; Aschenbrenner, Philipp

2012-12-01

Components with extraordinarily high analyte contents, for example copper metal from wires or plastics stabilized with heavy metal compounds, are presumed to be a crucial source of errors in refuse-derived fuel (RDF) analysis. In order to study the error generation of those 'analyte carrier components', synthetic samples spiked with defined amounts of carrier materials were mixed, milled in a high speed rotor mill to particle sizes <1 mm, <0.5 mm and <0.2 mm, respectively, and analyzed repeatedly. Copper (Cu) metal and brass were used as Cu carriers, three kinds of polyvinylchloride (PVC) materials as lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) carriers, and paper and polyethylene as bulk components. In most cases, samples <0.2 mm delivered good recovery rates (rec), and low or moderate relative standard deviations (rsd), i.e. metallic Cu 87-91% rec, 14-35% rsd, Cd from flexible PVC yellow 90-92% rec, 8-10% rsd and Pb from rigid PVC 92-96% rec, 3-4% rsd. Cu from brass was overestimated (138-150% rec, 13-42% rsd), Cd from flexible PVC grey underestimated (72-75% rec, 4-7% rsd) in <0.2 mm samples. Samples <0.5 mm and <1 mm spiked with Cu or brass produced errors of up to 220% rsd (<0.5 mm) and 370% rsd (<1 mm). In the case of Pb from rigid PVC, poor recoveries (54-75%) were observed in spite of moderate variations (rsd 11-29%). In conclusion, time-consuming milling to <0.2 mm can reduce variation to acceptable levels, even given the presence of analyte carrier materials. Yet, the sources of systematic errors observed (likely segregation effects) remain uncertain.

Logging-related increases in stream density in a northern California watershed

Treesearch

Matthew S. Buffleben

2012-01-01

Although many sediment budgets estimate the effects of logging, few have considered the potential impact of timber harvesting on stream density. Failure to consider changes in stream density could lead to large errors in the sediment budget, particularly between the allocation of natural and anthropogenic sources of sediment.This study...

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.; Qi, S.L.

2007-01-01

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

On The Usage Of Fire Smoke Emissions In An Air Quality Forecasting System To Reduce Particular Matter Forecasting Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H. C.; Pan, L.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; DiMego, G.; Huang, J.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

2016-12-01

Wildfires contribute to air quality problems not only towards primary emissions of particular matters (PM) but also emitted ozone precursor gases that can lead to elevated ozone concentration. Wildfires are unpredictable and can be ignited by natural causes such as lightning or accidently by human negligent behavior such as live cigarette. Although wildfire impacts on the air quality can be studied by collecting fire information after events, it is extremely difficult to predict future occurrence and behavior of wildfires for real-time air quality forecasts. Because of the time constraints of operational air quality forecasting, assumption of future day's fire behavior often have to be made based on observed fire information in the past. The United States (U.S.) NOAA/NWS built the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) based on the U.S. EPA CMAQ to provide air quality forecast guidance (prediction) publicly. State and local forecasters use the forecast guidance to issue air quality alerts in their area. The NAQFC fine particulates (PM2.5) prediction includes emissions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources, as well as natural sources such as dust storms and fires. The fire emission input to the NAQFC is derived from the NOAA NESDIS HMS fire and smoke detection product and the emission module of the US Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. This study focuses on the error estimation of NAQFC PM2.5 predictions resulting from fire emissions. The comparisons between the NAQFC modeled PM2.5 and the EPA AirNow surface observation show that present operational NAQFC fire emissions assumption can lead to a huge error in PM2.5 prediction as fire emissions are sometimes placed at wrong location and time. This PM2.5 prediction error can be propagated from the fire source in the Northwest U.S. to downstream areas as far as the Southeast U.S. From this study, a new procedure has been identified to minimize the aforementioned error. An additional 24 hours reanalysis-run of NAQFC using same-day observed fire emission are being tested. Preliminary results have shown that this procedure greatly improves the PM2.5 predictions at both nearby and downstream areas from fire sources. The 24 hours reanalysis-run is critical and necessary especially during extreme fire events to provide better PM2.5 predictions.

Modeling systematic errors: polychromatic sources of Beer-Lambert deviations in HPLC/UV and nonchromatographic spectrophotometric assays.

PubMed

Galli, C

2001-07-01

It is well established that the use of polychromatic radiation in spectrophotometric assays leads to excursions from the Beer-Lambert limit. This Note models the resulting systematic error as a function of assay spectral width, slope of molecular extinction coefficient, and analyte concentration. The theoretical calculations are compared with recent experimental results; a parameter is introduced which can be used to estimate the magnitude of the systematic error in both chromatographic and nonchromatographic spectrophotometric assays. It is important to realize that the polychromatic radiation employed in common laboratory equipment can yield assay errors up to approximately 4%, even at absorption levels generally considered 'safe' (i.e. absorption <1). Thus careful consideration of instrumental spectral width, analyte concentration, and slope of molecular extinction coefficient is required to ensure robust analytical methods.

One way Doppler extractor. Volume 1: Vernier technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blasco, R. W.; Klein, S.; Nossen, E. J.; Starner, E. R.; Yanosov, J. A.

1974-01-01

A feasibility analysis, trade-offs, and implementation for a One Way Doppler Extraction system are discussed. A Doppler error analysis shows that quantization error is a primary source of Doppler measurement error. Several competing extraction techniques are compared and a Vernier technique is developed which obtains high Doppler resolution with low speed logic. Parameter trade-offs and sensitivities for the Vernier technique are analyzed, leading to a hardware design configuration. A detailed design, operation, and performance evaluation of the resulting breadboard model is presented which verifies the theoretical performance predictions. Performance tests have verified that the breadboard is capable of extracting Doppler, on an S-band signal, to an accuracy of less than 0.02 Hertz for a one second averaging period. This corresponds to a range rate error of no more than 3 millimeters per second.

A probabilistic approach to remote compositional analysis of planetary surfaces

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lapotre, Mathieu G.A.; Ehlmann, Bethany L.; Minson, Sarah E.

2017-01-01

Reflected light from planetary surfaces provides information, including mineral/ice compositions and grain sizes, by study of albedo and absorption features as a function of wavelength. However, deconvolving the compositional signal in spectra is complicated by the nonuniqueness of the inverse problem. Trade-offs between mineral abundances and grain sizes in setting reflectance, instrument noise, and systematic errors in the forward model are potential sources of uncertainty, which are often unquantified. Here we adopt a Bayesian implementation of the Hapke model to determine sets of acceptable-fit mineral assemblages, as opposed to single best fit solutions. We quantify errors and uncertainties in mineral abundances and grain sizes that arise from instrument noise, compositional end members, optical constants, and systematic forward model errors for two suites of ternary mixtures (olivine-enstatite-anorthite and olivine-nontronite-basaltic glass) in a series of six experiments in the visible-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) wavelength range. We show that grain sizes are generally poorly constrained from VSWIR spectroscopy. Abundance and grain size trade-offs lead to typical abundance errors of ≤1 wt % (occasionally up to ~5 wt %), while ~3% noise in the data increases errors by up to ~2 wt %. Systematic errors further increase inaccuracies by a factor of 4. Finally, phases with low spectral contrast or inaccurate optical constants can further increase errors. Overall, typical errors in abundance are <10%, but sometimes significantly increase for specific mixtures, prone to abundance/grain-size trade-offs that lead to high unmixing uncertainties. These results highlight the need for probabilistic approaches to remote determination of planetary surface composition.

SU-D-12A-07: Optimization of a Moving Blocker System for Cone-Beam Computed Tomography Scatter Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ouyang, L; Yan, H; Jia, X

2014-06-01

Purpose: A moving blocker based strategy has shown promising results for scatter correction in cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). Different parameters of the system design affect its performance in scatter estimation and image reconstruction accuracy. The goal of this work is to optimize the geometric design of the moving block system. Methods: In the moving blocker system, a blocker consisting of lead strips is inserted between the x-ray source and imaging object and moving back and forth along rotation axis during CBCT acquisition. CT image of an anthropomorphic pelvic phantom was used in the simulation study. Scatter signal was simulated bymore » Monte Carlo calculation with various combinations of the lead strip width and the gap between neighboring lead strips, ranging from 4 mm to 80 mm (projected at the detector plane). Scatter signal in the unblocked region was estimated by cubic B-spline interpolation from the blocked region. Scatter estimation accuracy was quantified as relative root mean squared error by comparing the interpolated scatter to the Monte Carlo simulated scatter. CBCT was reconstructed by total variation minimization from the unblocked region, under various combinations of the lead strip width and gap. Reconstruction accuracy in each condition is quantified by CT number error as comparing to a CBCT reconstructed from unblocked full projection data. Results: Scatter estimation error varied from 0.5% to 2.6% as the lead strip width and the gap varied from 4mm to 80mm. CT number error in the reconstructed CBCT images varied from 12 to 44. Highest reconstruction accuracy is achieved when the blocker lead strip width is 8 mm and the gap is 48 mm. Conclusions: Accurate scatter estimation can be achieved in large range of combinations of lead strip width and gap. However, image reconstruction accuracy is greatly affected by the geometry design of the blocker.« less

Quantum key distribution with passive decoy state selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauerer, Wolfgang; Silberhorn, Christine

2007-05-01

We propose a quantum key distribution scheme which closely matches the performance of a perfect single photon source. It nearly attains the physical upper bound in terms of key generation rate and maximally achievable distance. Our scheme relies on a practical setup based on a parametric downconversion source and present day, nonideal photon-number detection. Arbitrary experimental imperfections which lead to bit errors are included. We select decoy states by classical postprocessing. This allows one to improve the effective signal statistics and achievable distance.

Poster Presentation: Optical Test of NGST Developmental Mirrors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadaway, James B.; Geary, Joseph; Reardon, Patrick; Peters, Bruce; Keidel, John; Chavers, Greg

2000-01-01

An Optical Testing System (OTS) has been developed to measure the figure and radius of curvature of NGST developmental mirrors in the vacuum, cryogenic environment of the X-Ray Calibration Facility (XRCF) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The OTS consists of a WaveScope Shack-Hartmann sensor from Adaptive Optics Associates as the main instrument, a Point Diffraction Interferometer (PDI), a Point Spread Function (PSF) imager, an alignment system, a Leica Disto Pro distance measurement instrument, and a laser source palette (632.8 nm wavelength) that is fiber-coupled to the sensor instruments. All of the instruments except the laser source palette are located on a single breadboard known as the Wavefront Sensor Pallet (WSP). The WSP is located on top of a 5-DOF motion system located at the center of curvature of the test mirror. Two PC's are used to control the OTS. The error in the figure measurement is dominated by the WaveScope's measurement error. An analysis using the absolute wavefront gradient error of 1/50 wave P-V (at 0.6328 microns) provided by the manufacturer leads to a total surface figure measurement error of approximately 1/100 wave rms. This easily meets the requirement of 1/10 wave P-V. The error in radius of curvature is dominated by the Leica's absolute measurement error of VI.5 mm and the focus setting error of Vi.4 mm, giving an overall error of V2 mm. The OTS is currently being used to test the NGST Mirror System Demonstrators (NMSD's) and the Subscale Beryllium Mirror Demonstrator (SBNM).

Uncertainty in biological monitoring: a framework for data collection and analysis to account for multiple sources of sampling bias

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Hooten, Melvin B.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

Biological monitoring programmes are increasingly relying upon large volumes of citizen-science data to improve the scope and spatial coverage of information, challenging the scientific community to develop design and model-based approaches to improve inference.Recent statistical models in ecology have been developed to accommodate false-negative errors, although current work points to false-positive errors as equally important sources of bias. This is of particular concern for the success of any monitoring programme given that rates as small as 3% could lead to the overestimation of the occurrence of rare events by as much as 50%, and even small false-positive rates can severely bias estimates of occurrence dynamics.We present an integrated, computationally efficient Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for false-positive and false-negative errors in detection/non-detection data. Our model combines independent, auxiliary data sources with field observations to improve the estimation of false-positive rates, when a subset of field observations cannot be validated a posteriori or assumed as perfect. We evaluated the performance of the model across a range of occurrence rates, false-positive and false-negative errors, and quantity of auxiliary data.The model performed well under all simulated scenarios, and we were able to identify critical auxiliary data characteristics which resulted in improved inference. We applied our false-positive model to a large-scale, citizen-science monitoring programme for anurans in the north-eastern United States, using auxiliary data from an experiment designed to estimate false-positive error rates. Not correcting for false-positive rates resulted in biased estimates of occupancy in 4 of the 10 anuran species we analysed, leading to an overestimation of the average number of occupied survey routes by as much as 70%.The framework we present for data collection and analysis is able to efficiently provide reliable inference for occurrence patterns using data from a citizen-science monitoring programme. However, our approach is applicable to data generated by any type of research and monitoring programme, independent of skill level or scale, when effort is placed on obtaining auxiliary information on false-positive rates.

Dynamically corrected gates for singlet-triplet spin qubits with control-dependent errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, N. Tobias; Witzel, Wayne M.; Nielsen, Erik; Carroll, Malcolm S.

2013-03-01

Magnetic field inhomogeneity due to random polarization of quasi-static local magnetic impurities is a major source of environmentally induced error for singlet-triplet double quantum dot (DQD) spin qubits. Moreover, for singlet-triplet qubits this error may depend on the applied controls. This effect is significant when a static magnetic field gradient is applied to enable full qubit control. Through a configuration interaction analysis, we observe that the dependence of the field inhomogeneity-induced error on the DQD bias voltage can vary systematically as a function of the controls for certain experimentally relevant operating regimes. To account for this effect, we have developed a straightforward prescription for adapting dynamically corrected gate sequences that assume control-independent errors into sequences that compensate for systematic control-dependent errors. We show that accounting for such errors may lead to a substantial increase in gate fidelities. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. DOE's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Accounting for stimulus-specific variation in precision reveals a discrete capacity limit in visual working memory

PubMed Central

Pratte, Michael S.; Park, Young Eun; Rademaker, Rosanne L.; Tong, Frank

2016-01-01

If we view a visual scene that contains many objects, then momentarily close our eyes, some details persist while others seem to fade. Discrete models of visual working memory (VWM) assume that only a few items can be actively maintained in memory, beyond which pure guessing will emerge. Alternatively, continuous resource models assume that all items in a visual scene can be stored with some precision. Distinguishing between these competing models is challenging, however, as resource models that allow for stochastically variable precision (across items and trials) can produce error distributions that resemble random guessing behavior. Here, we evaluated the hypothesis that a major source of variability in VWM performance arises from systematic variation in precision across the stimuli themselves; such stimulus-specific variability can be incorporated into both discrete-capacity and variable-precision resource models. Participants viewed multiple oriented gratings, and then reported the orientation of a cued grating from memory. When modeling the overall distribution of VWM errors, we found that the variable-precision resource model outperformed the discrete model. However, VWM errors revealed a pronounced “oblique effect”, with larger errors for oblique than cardinal orientations. After this source of variability was incorporated into both models, we found that the discrete model provided a better account of VWM errors. Our results demonstrate that variable precision across the stimulus space can lead to an unwarranted advantage for resource models that assume stochastically variable precision. When these deterministic sources are adequately modeled, human working memory performance reveals evidence of a discrete capacity limit. PMID:28004957

Accounting for stimulus-specific variation in precision reveals a discrete capacity limit in visual working memory.

PubMed

Pratte, Michael S; Park, Young Eun; Rademaker, Rosanne L; Tong, Frank

2017-01-01

If we view a visual scene that contains many objects, then momentarily close our eyes, some details persist while others seem to fade. Discrete models of visual working memory (VWM) assume that only a few items can be actively maintained in memory, beyond which pure guessing will emerge. Alternatively, continuous resource models assume that all items in a visual scene can be stored with some precision. Distinguishing between these competing models is challenging, however, as resource models that allow for stochastically variable precision (across items and trials) can produce error distributions that resemble random guessing behavior. Here, we evaluated the hypothesis that a major source of variability in VWM performance arises from systematic variation in precision across the stimuli themselves; such stimulus-specific variability can be incorporated into both discrete-capacity and variable-precision resource models. Participants viewed multiple oriented gratings, and then reported the orientation of a cued grating from memory. When modeling the overall distribution of VWM errors, we found that the variable-precision resource model outperformed the discrete model. However, VWM errors revealed a pronounced "oblique effect," with larger errors for oblique than cardinal orientations. After this source of variability was incorporated into both models, we found that the discrete model provided a better account of VWM errors. Our results demonstrate that variable precision across the stimulus space can lead to an unwarranted advantage for resource models that assume stochastically variable precision. When these deterministic sources are adequately modeled, human working memory performance reveals evidence of a discrete capacity limit. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Characterizing Sources of Uncertainty in Item Response Theory Scale Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Ji Seung; Hansen, Mark; Cai, Li

2012-01-01

Traditional estimators of item response theory scale scores ignore uncertainty carried over from the item calibration process, which can lead to incorrect estimates of the standard errors of measurement (SEMs). Here, the authors review a variety of approaches that have been applied to this problem and compare them on the basis of their statistical…

The evolution of scaling laws in the sea ice floe size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horvat, Christopher; Tziperman, Eli

2017-09-01

The sub-gridscale floe size and thickness distribution (FSTD) is an emerging climate variable, playing a leading-order role in the coupling between sea ice, the ocean, and the atmosphere. The FSTD, however, is difficult to measure given the vast range of horizontal scales of individual floes, leading to the common use of power-law scaling to describe it. The evolution of a coupled mixed-layer-FSTD model of a typical marginal ice zone is explicitly simulated here, to develop a deeper understanding of how processes active at the floe scale may or may not lead to scaling laws in the floe size distribution. The time evolution of mean quantities obtained from the FSTD (sea ice concentration, mean thickness, volume) is complex even in simple scenarios, suggesting that these quantities, which affect climate feedbacks, should be carefully calculated in climate models. The emergence of FSTDs with multiple separate power-law regimes, as seen in observations, is found to be due to the combination of multiple scale-selective processes. Limitations in assuming a power-law FSTD are carefully analyzed, applying methods used in observations to FSTD model output. Two important sources of error are identified that may lead to model biases: one when observing an insufficiently small range of floe sizes, and one from the fact that floe-scale processes often do not produce power-law behavior. These two sources of error may easily lead to biases in mean quantities derived from the FSTD of greater than 100%, and therefore biases in modeled sea ice evolution.

The effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on VLBI measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treuhaft, R. N.; Lanyi, G. E.

1986-01-01

Calculations using a statistical model of water vapor fluctuations yield the effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) measurements. The statistical model arises from two primary assumptions: (1) the spatial structure of refractivity fluctuations can be closely approximated by elementary (Kolmogorov) turbulence theory, and (2) temporal fluctuations are caused by spatial patterns which are moved over a site by the wind. The consequences of these assumptions are outlined for the VLBI delay and delay rate observables. For example, wet troposphere induced rms delays for Deep Space Network (DSN) VLBI at 20-deg elevation are about 3 cm of delay per observation, which is smaller, on the average, than other known error sources in the current DSN VLBI data set. At 20-deg elevation for 200-s time intervals, water vapor induces approximately 1.5 x 10 to the minus 13th power s/s in the Allan standard deviation of interferometric delay, which is a measure of the delay rate observable error. In contrast to the delay error, the delay rate measurement error is dominated by water vapor fluctuations. Water vapor induced VLBI parameter errors and correlations are calculated. For the DSN, baseline length parameter errors due to water vapor fluctuations are in the range of 3 to 5 cm. The above physical assumptions also lead to a method for including the water vapor fluctuations in the parameter estimation procedure, which is used to extract baseline and source information from the VLBI observables.

To image analysis in computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chukalina, Marina; Nikolaev, Dmitry; Ingacheva, Anastasia; Buzmakov, Alexey; Yakimchuk, Ivan; Asadchikov, Victor

2017-03-01

The presence of errors in tomographic image may lead to misdiagnosis when computed tomography (CT) is used in medicine, or the wrong decision about parameters of technological processes when CT is used in the industrial applications. Two main reasons produce these errors. First, the errors occur on the step corresponding to the measurement, e.g. incorrect calibration and estimation of geometric parameters of the set-up. The second reason is the nature of the tomography reconstruction step. At the stage a mathematical model to calculate the projection data is created. Applied optimization and regularization methods along with their numerical implementations of the method chosen have their own specific errors. Nowadays, a lot of research teams try to analyze these errors and construct the relations between error sources. In this paper, we do not analyze the nature of the final error, but present a new approach for the calculation of its distribution in the reconstructed volume. We hope that the visualization of the error distribution will allow experts to clarify the medical report impression or expert summary given by them after analyzing of CT results. To illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach we present both the simulation and real data processing results.

Prescribing error at hospital discharge: a retrospective review of medication information in an Irish hospital.

PubMed

Michaelson, M; Walsh, E; Bradley, C P; McCague, P; Owens, R; Sahm, L J

2017-08-01

Prescribing error may result in adverse clinical outcomes leading to increased patient morbidity, mortality and increased economic burden. Many errors occur during transitional care as patients move between different stages and settings of care. To conduct a review of medication information and identify prescribing error among an adult population in an urban hospital. Retrospective review of medication information was conducted. Part 1: an audit of discharge prescriptions which assessed: legibility, compliance with legal requirements, therapeutic errors (strength, dose and frequency) and drug interactions. Part 2: A review of all sources of medication information (namely pre-admission medication list, drug Kardex, discharge prescription, discharge letter) for 15 inpatients to identify unintentional prescription discrepancies, defined as: "undocumented and/or unjustified medication alteration" throughout the hospital stay. Part 1: of the 5910 prescribed items; 53 (0.9%) were deemed illegible. Of the controlled drug prescriptions 11.1% (n = 167) met all the legal requirements. Therapeutic errors occurred in 41% of prescriptions (n = 479) More than 1 in 5 patients (21.9%) received a prescription containing a drug interaction. Part 2: 175 discrepancies were identified across all sources of medication information; of which 78 were deemed unintentional. Of these: 10.2% (n = 8) occurred at the point of admission, whereby 76.9% (n = 60) occurred at the point of discharge. The study identified the time of discharge as a point at which prescribing errors are likely to occur. This has implications for patient safety and provider work load in both primary and secondary care.

Per-pixel bias-variance decomposition of continuous errors in data-driven geospatial modeling: A case study in environmental remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Jing; Burt, James E.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the usefulness of a per-pixel bias-variance error decomposition (BVD) for understanding and improving spatially-explicit data-driven models of continuous variables in environmental remote sensing (ERS). BVD is a model evaluation method originated from machine learning and have not been examined for ERS applications. Demonstrated with a showcase regression tree model mapping land imperviousness (0-100%) using Landsat images, our results showed that BVD can reveal sources of estimation errors, map how these sources vary across space, reveal the effects of various model characteristics on estimation accuracy, and enable in-depth comparison of different error metrics. Specifically, BVD bias maps can help analysts identify and delineate model spatial non-stationarity; BVD variance maps can indicate potential effects of ensemble methods (e.g. bagging), and inform efficient training sample allocation - training samples should capture the full complexity of the modeled process, and more samples should be allocated to regions with more complex underlying processes rather than regions covering larger areas. Through examining the relationships between model characteristics and their effects on estimation accuracy revealed by BVD for both absolute and squared errors (i.e. error is the absolute or the squared value of the difference between observation and estimate), we found that the two error metrics embody different diagnostic emphases, can lead to different conclusions about the same model, and may suggest different solutions for performance improvement. We emphasize BVD's strength in revealing the connection between model characteristics and estimation accuracy, as understanding this relationship empowers analysts to effectively steer performance through model adjustments.

When bad things happen: adverse event reporting and disclosure as patient safety and risk management tools in the neonatal intensive care unit.

PubMed

Donn, Steven M; McDonnell, William M

2012-01-01

The Institute of Medicine has recommended a change in culture from "name and blame" to patient safety. This will require system redesign to identify and address errors, establish performance standards, and set safety expectations. This approach, however, is at odds with the present medical malpractice (tort) system. The current system is outcomes-based, meaning that health care providers and institutions are often sued despite providing appropriate care. Nevertheless, the focus should remain to provide the safest patient care. Effective peer review may be hindered by the present tort system. Reporting of medical errors is a key piece of peer review and education, and both anonymous reporting and confidential reporting of errors have potential disadvantages. Diagnostic and treatment errors continue to be the leading sources of allegations of malpractice in pediatrics, and the neonatal intensive care unit is uniquely vulnerable. Most errors result from systems failures rather than human error. Risk management can be an effective process to identify, evaluate, and address problems that may injure patients, lead to malpractice claims, and result in financial losses. Risk management identifies risk or potential risk, calculates the probability of an adverse event arising from a risk, estimates the impact of the adverse event, and attempts to control the risk. Implementation of a successful risk management program requires a positive attitude, sufficient knowledge base, and a commitment to improvement. Transparency in the disclosure of medical errors and a strategy of prospective risk management in dealing with medical errors may result in a substantial reduction in medical malpractice lawsuits, lower litigation costs, and a more safety-conscious environment. Thieme Medical Publishers, Inc.

Joint Source-Channel Coding by Means of an Oversampled Filter Bank Code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinkovic, Slavica; Guillemot, Christine

2006-12-01

Quantized frame expansions based on block transforms and oversampled filter banks (OFBs) have been considered recently as joint source-channel codes (JSCCs) for erasure and error-resilient signal transmission over noisy channels. In this paper, we consider a coding chain involving an OFB-based signal decomposition followed by scalar quantization and a variable-length code (VLC) or a fixed-length code (FLC). This paper first examines the problem of channel error localization and correction in quantized OFB signal expansions. The error localization problem is treated as an[InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]-ary hypothesis testing problem. The likelihood values are derived from the joint pdf of the syndrome vectors under various hypotheses of impulse noise positions, and in a number of consecutive windows of the received samples. The error amplitudes are then estimated by solving the syndrome equations in the least-square sense. The message signal is reconstructed from the corrected received signal by a pseudoinverse receiver. We then improve the error localization procedure by introducing a per-symbol reliability information in the hypothesis testing procedure of the OFB syndrome decoder. The per-symbol reliability information is produced by the soft-input soft-output (SISO) VLC/FLC decoders. This leads to the design of an iterative algorithm for joint decoding of an FLC and an OFB code. The performance of the algorithms developed is evaluated in a wavelet-based image coding system.

Testing the Accuracy of Data-driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leake, James E.; Linton, Mark G.; Schuck, Peter W., E-mail: james.e.leake@nasa.gov

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are “data-driven” at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus ourmore » investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hr can be modeled by the data-driving method with only ∼1% error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.« less

Towards a consistent framework to oversample multi-sensors, multi-species satellite data into a common grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, K.; Zhu, L.; Gonzalez Abad, G.; Nowlan, C. R.; Miller, C. E.; Huang, G.; Liu, X.; Chance, K.; Yang, K.

2017-12-01

It has been well demonstrated that regridding Level 2 products (satellite observations from individual footprints, or pixels) from multiple sensors/species onto regular spatial and temporal grids makes the data more accessible for scientific studies and can even lead to additional discoveries. However, synergizing multiple species retrieved from multiple satellite sensors faces many challenges, including differences in spatial coverage, viewing geometry, and data filtering criteria. These differences will lead to errors and biases if not treated carefully. Operational gridded products are often at 0.25°×0.25° resolution with a global scale, which is too coarse for local heterogeneous emission sources (e.g., urban areas), and at fixed temporal intervals (e.g., daily or monthly). We propose a consistent framework to fully use and properly weight the information of all possible individual satellite observations. A key aspect of this work is an accurate knowledge of the spatial response function (SRF) of the satellite Level 2 pixels. We found that the conventional overlap-area-weighting method (tessellation) is accurate only when the SRF is homogeneous within the parameterized pixel boundary and zero outside the boundary. There will be a tessellation error if the SRF is a smooth distribution, and if this distribution is not properly considered. On the other hand, discretizing the SRF at the destination grid will also induce errors. By balancing these error sources, we found that the SRF should be used in gridding OMI data to 0.2° for fine resolutions. Case studies by merging multiple species and wind data into 0.01° grid will be shown in the presentation.

iGen: An automated generator of simplified models with provable error bounds.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, D.; Dobbie, S.

2009-04-01

Climate models employ various simplifying assumptions and parameterisations in order to increase execution speed. However, in order to draw conclusions about the Earths climate from the results of a climate simulation it is necessary to have information about the error that these assumptions and parameterisations introduce. A novel computer program, called iGen, is being developed which automatically generates fast, simplified models by analysing the source code of a slower, high resolution model. The resulting simplified models have provable bounds on error compared to the high resolution model and execute at speeds that are typically orders of magnitude faster. iGen's input is a definition of the prognostic variables of the simplified model, a set of bounds on acceptable error and the source code of a model that captures the behaviour of interest. In the case of an atmospheric model, for example, this would be a global cloud resolving model with very high resolution. Although such a model would execute far too slowly to be used directly in a climate model, iGen never executes it. Instead, it converts the code of the resolving model into a mathematical expression which is then symbolically manipulated and approximated to form a simplified expression. This expression is then converted back into a computer program and output as a simplified model. iGen also derives and reports formal bounds on the error of the simplified model compared to the resolving model. These error bounds are always maintained below the user-specified acceptable error. Results will be presented illustrating the success of iGen's analysis of a number of example models. These extremely encouraging results have lead on to work which is currently underway to analyse a cloud resolving model and so produce an efficient parameterisation of moist convection with formally bounded error.

Characterizing the SWOT discharge error budget on the Sacramento River, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Y.; Durand, M. T.; Minear, J. T.; Smith, L.; Merry, C. J.

2013-12-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) is an upcoming satellite mission (2020 year) that will provide surface-water elevation and surface-water extent globally. One goal of SWOT is the estimation of river discharge directly from SWOT measurements. SWOT discharge uncertainty is due to two sources. First, SWOT cannot measure channel bathymetry and determine roughness coefficient data necessary for discharge calculations directly; these parameters must be estimated from the measurements or from a priori information. Second, SWOT measurement errors directly impact the discharge estimate accuracy. This study focuses on characterizing parameter and measurement uncertainties for SWOT river discharge estimation. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme is used to calculate parameter estimates, given the measurements of river height, slope and width, and mass and momentum constraints. The algorithm is evaluated using simulated both SWOT and AirSWOT (the airborne version of SWOT) observations over seven reaches (about 40 km) of the Sacramento River. The SWOT and AirSWOT observations are simulated by corrupting the ';true' HEC-RAS hydraulic modeling results with the instrument error. This experiment answers how unknown bathymetry and roughness coefficients affect the accuracy of the river discharge algorithm. From the experiment, the discharge error budget is almost completely dominated by unknown bathymetry and roughness; 81% of the variance error is explained by uncertainties in bathymetry and roughness. Second, we show how the errors in water surface, slope, and width observations influence the accuracy of discharge estimates. Indeed, there is a significant sensitivity to water surface, slope, and width errors due to the sensitivity of bathymetry and roughness to measurement errors. Increasing water-surface error above 10 cm leads to a corresponding sharper increase of errors in bathymetry and roughness. Increasing slope error above 1.5 cm/km leads to a significant degradation due to direct error in the discharge estimates. As the width error increases past 20%, the discharge error budget is dominated by the width error. Above two experiments are performed based on AirSWOT scenarios. In addition, we explore the sensitivity of the algorithm to the SWOT scenarios.

Reexamining our bias against heuristics.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Kevin; Eva, Kevin W; Norman, Geoff R

2014-08-01

Using heuristics offers several cognitive advantages, such as increased speed and reduced effort when making decisions, in addition to allowing us to make decision in situations where missing data do not allow for formal reasoning. But the traditional view of heuristics is that they trade accuracy for efficiency. Here the authors discuss sources of bias in the literature implicating the use of heuristics in diagnostic error and highlight the fact that there are also data suggesting that under certain circumstances using heuristics may lead to better decisions that formal analysis. They suggest that diagnostic error is frequently misattributed to the use of heuristics and propose an alternative view whereby content knowledge is the root cause of diagnostic performance and heuristics lie on the causal pathway between knowledge and diagnostic error or success.

Antenna Deployment for the Localization of Partial Discharges in Open-Air Substations

PubMed Central

Robles, Guillermo; Fresno, José Manuel; Sánchez-Fernández, Matilde; Martínez-Tarifa, Juan Manuel

2016-01-01

Partial discharges are ionization processes inside or on the surface of dielectrics that can unveil insulation problems in electrical equipment. The charge accumulated is released under certain environmental and voltage conditions attacking the insulation both physically and chemically. The final consequence of a continuous occurrence of these events is the breakdown of the dielectric. The electron avalanche provokes a derivative of the electric field with respect to time, creating an electromagnetic impulse that can be detected with antennas. The localization of the source helps in the identification of the piece of equipment that has to be decommissioned. This can be done by deploying antennas and calculating the time difference of arrival (TDOA) of the electromagnetic pulses. However, small errors in this parameter can lead to great displacements of the calculated position of the source. Usually, four antennas are used to find the source but the array geometry has to be correctly deployed to have minimal errors in the localization. This paper demonstrates, by an analysis based on simulation and also experimentally, that the most common layouts are not always the best options and proposes a simple antenna layout to reduce the systematic error in the TDOA calculation due to the positions of the antennas in the array. PMID:27092501

Decision support tool for diagnosing the source of variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masood, Ibrahim; Azrul Azhad Haizan, Mohamad; Norbaya Jumali, Siti; Ghazali, Farah Najihah Mohd; Razali, Hazlin Syafinaz Md; Shahir Yahya, Mohd; Azlan, Mohd Azwir bin

2017-08-01

Identifying the source of unnatural variation (SOV) in manufacturing process is essential for quality control. The Shewhart control chart patterns (CCPs) are commonly used to monitor the SOV. However, a proper interpretation of CCPs associated to its SOV requires a high skill industrial practitioner. Lack of knowledge in process engineering will lead to erroneous corrective action. The objective of this study is to design the operating procedures of computerized decision support tool (DST) for process diagnosis. The DST is an embedded tool in CCPs recognition scheme. Design methodology involves analysis of relationship between geometrical features, manufacturing process and CCPs. The DST contents information about CCPs and its possible root cause error and description on SOV phenomenon such as process deterioration in tool bluntness, offsetting tool, loading error, and changes in materials hardness. The DST will be useful for an industrial practitioner in making effective troubleshooting.

Interior sound field control using generalized singular value decomposition in the frequency domain.

PubMed

Pasco, Yann; Gauthier, Philippe-Aubert; Berry, Alain; Moreau, Stéphane

2017-01-01

The problem of controlling a sound field inside a region surrounded by acoustic control sources is considered. Inspired by the Kirchhoff-Helmholtz integral, the use of double-layer source arrays allows such a control and avoids the modification of the external sound field by the control sources by the approximation of the sources as monopole and radial dipole transducers. However, the practical implementation of the Kirchhoff-Helmholtz integral in physical space leads to large numbers of control sources and error sensors along with excessive controller complexity in three dimensions. The present study investigates the potential of the Generalized Singular Value Decomposition (GSVD) to reduce the controller complexity and separate the effect of control sources on the interior and exterior sound fields, respectively. A proper truncation of the singular basis provided by the GSVD factorization is shown to lead to effective cancellation of the interior sound field at frequencies below the spatial Nyquist frequency of the control sources array while leaving the exterior sound field almost unchanged. Proofs of concept are provided through simulations achieved for interior problems by simulations in a free field scenario with circular arrays and in a reflective environment with square arrays.

Interactive Video Coding and Transmission over Heterogeneous Wired-to-Wireless IP Networks Using an Edge Proxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Yong; Modestino, James W.

2004-12-01

Digital video delivered over wired-to-wireless networks is expected to suffer quality degradation from both packet loss and bit errors in the payload. In this paper, the quality degradation due to packet loss and bit errors in the payload are quantitatively evaluated and their effects are assessed. We propose the use of a concatenated forward error correction (FEC) coding scheme employing Reed-Solomon (RS) codes and rate-compatible punctured convolutional (RCPC) codes to protect the video data from packet loss and bit errors, respectively. Furthermore, the performance of a joint source-channel coding (JSCC) approach employing this concatenated FEC coding scheme for video transmission is studied. Finally, we describe an improved end-to-end architecture using an edge proxy in a mobile support station to implement differential error protection for the corresponding channel impairments expected on the two networks. Results indicate that with an appropriate JSCC approach and the use of an edge proxy, FEC-based error-control techniques together with passive error-recovery techniques can significantly improve the effective video throughput and lead to acceptable video delivery quality over time-varying heterogeneous wired-to-wireless IP networks.

A posteriori error estimates in voice source recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonov, A. S.; Sorokin, V. N.

2017-12-01

The inverse problem of voice source pulse recovery from a segment of a speech signal is under consideration. A special mathematical model is used for the solution that relates these quantities. A variational method of solving inverse problem of voice source recovery for a new parametric class of sources, that is for piecewise-linear sources (PWL-sources), is proposed. Also, a technique for a posteriori numerical error estimation for obtained solutions is presented. A computer study of the adequacy of adopted speech production model with PWL-sources is performed in solving the inverse problems for various types of voice signals, as well as corresponding study of a posteriori error estimates. Numerical experiments for speech signals show satisfactory properties of proposed a posteriori error estimates, which represent the upper bounds of possible errors in solving the inverse problem. The estimate of the most probable error in determining the source-pulse shapes is about 7-8% for the investigated speech material. It is noted that a posteriori error estimates can be used as a criterion of the quality for obtained voice source pulses in application to speaker recognition.

Reconstruction of Atmospheric Tracer Releases with Optimal Resolution Features: Concentration Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarvesh Kumar; Turbelin, Gregory; Issartel, Jean-Pierre; Kumar, Pramod; Feiz, Amir Ali

2015-04-01

The fast growing urbanization, industrialization and military developments increase the risk towards the human environment and ecology. This is realized in several past mortality incidents, for instance, Chernobyl nuclear explosion (Ukraine), Bhopal gas leak (India), Fukushima-Daichi radionuclide release (Japan), etc. To reduce the threat and exposure to the hazardous contaminants, a fast and preliminary identification of unknown releases is required by the responsible authorities for the emergency preparedness and air quality analysis. Often, an early detection of such contaminants is pursued by a distributed sensor network. However, identifying the origin and strength of unknown releases following the sensor reported concentrations is a challenging task. This requires an optimal strategy to integrate the measured concentrations with the predictions given by the atmospheric dispersion models. This is an inverse problem. The measured concentrations are insufficient and atmospheric dispersion models suffer from inaccuracy due to the lack of process understanding, turbulence uncertainties, etc. These lead to a loss of information in the reconstruction process and thus, affect the resolution, stability and uniqueness of the retrieved source. An additional well known issue is the numerical artifact arisen at the measurement locations due to the strong concentration gradient and dissipative nature of the concentration. Thus, assimilation techniques are desired which can lead to an optimal retrieval of the unknown releases. In general, this is facilitated within the Bayesian inference and optimization framework with a suitable choice of a priori information, regularization constraints, measurement and background error statistics. An inversion technique is introduced here for an optimal reconstruction of unknown releases using limited concentration measurements. This is based on adjoint representation of the source-receptor relationship and utilization of a weight function which exhibits a priori information about the unknown releases apparent to the monitoring network. The properties of the weight function provide an optimal data resolution and model resolution to the retrieved source estimates. The retrieved source estimates are proved theoretically to be stable against the random measurement errors and their reliability can be interpreted in terms of the distribution of the weight functions. Further, the same framework can be extended for the identification of the point type releases by utilizing the maximum of the retrieved source estimates. The inversion technique has been evaluated with the several diffusion experiments, like, Idaho low wind diffusion experiment (1974), IIT Delhi tracer experiment (1991), European Tracer Experiment (1994), Fusion Field Trials (2007), etc. In case of point release experiments, the source parameters are mostly retrieved close to the true source parameters with least error. Primarily, the proposed technique overcomes two major difficulties incurred in the source reconstruction: (i) The initialization of the source parameters as required by the optimization based techniques. The converged solution depends on their initialization. (ii) The statistical knowledge about the measurement and background errors as required by the Bayesian inference based techniques. These are hypothetically assumed in case of no prior knowledge.

Impact of methodological "shortcuts" in conducting public health surveys: Results from a vaccination coverage survey

PubMed Central

Luman, Elizabeth T; Sablan, Mariana; Stokley, Shannon; McCauley, Mary M; Shaw, Kate M

2008-01-01

Background Lack of methodological rigor can cause survey error, leading to biased results and suboptimal public health response. This study focused on the potential impact of 3 methodological "shortcuts" pertaining to field surveys: relying on a single source for critical data, failing to repeatedly visit households to improve response rates, and excluding remote areas. Methods In a vaccination coverage survey of young children conducted in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands in July 2005, 3 sources of vaccination information were used, multiple follow-up visits were made, and all inhabited areas were included in the sampling frame. Results are calculated with and without these strategies. Results Most children had at least 2 sources of data; vaccination coverage estimated from any single source was substantially lower than from all sources combined. Eligibility was ascertained for 79% of households after the initial visit and for 94% of households after follow-up visits; vaccination coverage rates were similar with and without follow-up. Coverage among children on remote islands differed substantially from that of their counterparts on the main island indicating a programmatic need for locality-specific information; excluding remote islands from the survey would have had little effect on overall estimates due to small populations and divergent results. Conclusion Strategies to reduce sources of survey error should be maximized in public health surveys. The impact of the 3 strategies illustrated here will vary depending on the primary outcomes of interest and local situations. Survey limitations such as potential for error should be well-documented, and the likely direction and magnitude of bias should be considered. PMID:18371195

Estimating true human and animal host source contribution in quantitative microbial source tracking using the Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Silkie, Sarah S; Nelson, Kara L; Wuertz, Stefan

2010-09-01

Cultivation- and library-independent, quantitative PCR-based methods have become the method of choice in microbial source tracking. However, these qPCR assays are not 100% specific and sensitive for the target sequence in their respective hosts' genome. The factors that can lead to false positive and false negative information in qPCR results are well defined. It is highly desirable to have a way of removing such false information to estimate the true concentration of host-specific genetic markers and help guide the interpretation of environmental monitoring studies. Here we propose a statistical model based on the Law of Total Probability to predict the true concentration of these markers. The distributions of the probabilities of obtaining false information are estimated from representative fecal samples of known origin. Measurement error is derived from the sample precision error of replicated qPCR reactions. Then, the Monte Carlo method is applied to sample from these distributions of probabilities and measurement error. The set of equations given by the Law of Total Probability allows one to calculate the distribution of true concentrations, from which their expected value, confidence interval and other statistical characteristics can be easily evaluated. The output distributions of predicted true concentrations can then be used as input to watershed-wide total maximum daily load determinations, quantitative microbial risk assessment and other environmental models. This model was validated by both statistical simulations and real world samples. It was able to correct the intrinsic false information associated with qPCR assays and output the distribution of true concentrations of Bacteroidales for each animal host group. Model performance was strongly affected by the precision error. It could perform reliably and precisely when the standard deviation of the precision error was small (≤ 0.1). Further improvement on the precision of sample processing and qPCR reaction would greatly improve the performance of the model. This methodology, built upon Bacteroidales assays, is readily transferable to any other microbial source indicator where a universal assay for fecal sources of that indicator exists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lightning Radio Source Retrieval Using Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, William J.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bailey, J. C.

1998-01-01

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from an Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing and arrival time of lightning radio emissions. Solutions for the plane (i.e., no Earth curvature) are provided that implement all of tile measurements mentioned above. Tests of the retrieval method are provided using computer-simulated data sets. We also introduce a quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in source location. Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. In the absence of measurement errors, quadratic root degeneracy (no source location ambiguity) is shown to exist exactly on the outer sensor baselines for arbitrary non-collinear network geometries. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer generated data sets. The results are generally better than those obtained from the three station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 deg. We also note some of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods over the nonlinear method of chi(sup 2) minimization employed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and discussed in Cummins et al.(1993, 1995, 1998).

ON COMPUTING UPPER LIMITS TO SOURCE INTENSITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kashyap, Vinay L.; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Van Dyk, David A.

2010-08-10

A common problem in astrophysics is determining how bright a source could be and still not be detected in an observation. Despite the simplicity with which the problem can be stated, the solution involves complicated statistical issues that require careful analysis. In contrast to the more familiar confidence bound, this concept has never been formally analyzed, leading to a great variety of often ad hoc solutions. Here we formulate and describe the problem in a self-consistent manner. Detection significance is usually defined by the acceptable proportion of false positives (background fluctuations that are claimed as detections, or Type I error),more » and we invoke the complementary concept of false negatives (real sources that go undetected, or Type II error), based on the statistical power of a test, to compute an upper limit to the detectable source intensity. To determine the minimum intensity that a source must have for it to be detected, we first define a detection threshold and then compute the probabilities of detecting sources of various intensities at the given threshold. The intensity that corresponds to the specified Type II error probability defines that minimum intensity and is identified as the upper limit. Thus, an upper limit is a characteristic of the detection procedure rather than the strength of any particular source. It should not be confused with confidence intervals or other estimates of source intensity. This is particularly important given the large number of catalogs that are being generated from increasingly sensitive surveys. We discuss, with examples, the differences between these upper limits and confidence bounds. Both measures are useful quantities that should be reported in order to extract the most science from catalogs, though they answer different statistical questions: an upper bound describes an inference range on the source intensity, while an upper limit calibrates the detection process. We provide a recipe for computing upper limits that applies to all detection algorithms.« less

Exchange-Correlation Effects for Noncovalent Interactions in Density Functional Theory.

PubMed

Otero-de-la-Roza, A; DiLabio, Gino A; Johnson, Erin R

2016-07-12

In this article, we develop an understanding of how errors from exchange-correlation functionals affect the modeling of noncovalent interactions in dispersion-corrected density-functional theory. Computed CCSD(T) reference binding energies for a collection of small-molecule clusters are decomposed via a molecular many-body expansion and are used to benchmark density-functional approximations, including the effect of semilocal approximation, exact-exchange admixture, and range separation. Three sources of error are identified. Repulsion error arises from the choice of semilocal functional approximation. This error affects intermolecular repulsions and is present in all n-body exchange-repulsion energies with a sign that alternates with the order n of the interaction. Delocalization error is independent of the choice of semilocal functional but does depend on the exact exchange fraction. Delocalization error misrepresents the induction energies, leading to overbinding in all induction n-body terms, and underestimates the electrostatic contribution to the 2-body energies. Deformation error affects only monomer relaxation (deformation) energies and behaves similarly to bond-dissociation energy errors. Delocalization and deformation errors affect systems with significant intermolecular orbital interactions (e.g., hydrogen- and halogen-bonded systems), whereas repulsion error is ubiquitous. Many-body errors from the underlying exchange-correlation functional greatly exceed in general the magnitude of the many-body dispersion energy term. A functional built to accurately model noncovalent interactions must contain a dispersion correction, semilocal exchange, and correlation components that minimize the repulsion error independently and must also incorporate exact exchange in such a way that delocalization error is absent.

How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.

Analysis of the load selection on the error of source characteristics identification for an engine exhaust system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Sifa; Liu, Haitao; Dan, Jiabi; Lian, Xiaomin

2015-05-01

Linear time-invariant assumption for the determination of acoustic source characteristics, the source strength and the source impedance in the frequency domain has been proved reasonable in the design of an exhaust system. Different methods have been proposed to its identification and the multi-load method is widely used for its convenience by varying the load number and impedance. Theoretical error analysis has rarely been referred to and previous results have shown an overdetermined set of open pipes can reduce the identification error. This paper contributes a theoretical error analysis for the load selection. The relationships between the error in the identification of source characteristics and the load selection were analysed. A general linear time-invariant model was built based on the four-load method. To analyse the error of the source impedance, an error estimation function was proposed. The dispersion of the source pressure was obtained by an inverse calculation as an indicator to detect the accuracy of the results. It was found that for a certain load length, the load resistance at the frequency points of one-quarter wavelength of odd multiples results in peaks and in the maximum error for source impedance identification. Therefore, the load impedance of frequency range within the one-quarter wavelength of odd multiples should not be used for source impedance identification. If the selected loads have more similar resistance values (i.e., the same order of magnitude), the identification error of the source impedance could be effectively reduced.

ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.

2018-05-01

Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.

Deterministic error correction for nonlocal spatial-polarization hyperentanglement

PubMed Central

Li, Tao; Wang, Guan-Yu; Deng, Fu-Guo; Long, Gui-Lu

2016-01-01

Hyperentanglement is an effective quantum source for quantum communication network due to its high capacity, low loss rate, and its unusual character in teleportation of quantum particle fully. Here we present a deterministic error-correction scheme for nonlocal spatial-polarization hyperentangled photon pairs over collective-noise channels. In our scheme, the spatial-polarization hyperentanglement is first encoded into a spatial-defined time-bin entanglement with identical polarization before it is transmitted over collective-noise channels, which leads to the error rejection of the spatial entanglement during the transmission. The polarization noise affecting the polarization entanglement can be corrected with a proper one-step decoding procedure. The two parties in quantum communication can, in principle, obtain a nonlocal maximally entangled spatial-polarization hyperentanglement in a deterministic way, which makes our protocol more convenient than others in long-distance quantum communication. PMID:26861681

Deterministic error correction for nonlocal spatial-polarization hyperentanglement.

PubMed

Li, Tao; Wang, Guan-Yu; Deng, Fu-Guo; Long, Gui-Lu

2016-02-10

Hyperentanglement is an effective quantum source for quantum communication network due to its high capacity, low loss rate, and its unusual character in teleportation of quantum particle fully. Here we present a deterministic error-correction scheme for nonlocal spatial-polarization hyperentangled photon pairs over collective-noise channels. In our scheme, the spatial-polarization hyperentanglement is first encoded into a spatial-defined time-bin entanglement with identical polarization before it is transmitted over collective-noise channels, which leads to the error rejection of the spatial entanglement during the transmission. The polarization noise affecting the polarization entanglement can be corrected with a proper one-step decoding procedure. The two parties in quantum communication can, in principle, obtain a nonlocal maximally entangled spatial-polarization hyperentanglement in a deterministic way, which makes our protocol more convenient than others in long-distance quantum communication.

PROGRESS TOWARDS NEXT GENERATION, WAVEFORM BASED THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELS AND METRICS TO IMPROVE NUCLEAR EXPLOSION MONITORING IN THE MIDDLE EAST

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savage, B; Peter, D; Covellone, B

2009-07-02

Efforts to update current wave speed models of the Middle East require a thoroughly tested database of sources and recordings. Recordings of seismic waves traversing the region from Tibet to the Red Sea will be the principal metric in guiding improvements to the current wave speed model. Precise characterizations of the earthquakes, specifically depths and faulting mechanisms, are essential to avoid mapping source errors into the refined wave speed model. Errors associated with the source are manifested in amplitude and phase changes. Source depths and paths near nodal planes are particularly error prone as small changes may severely affect themore » resulting wavefield. Once sources are quantified, regions requiring refinement will be highlighted using adjoint tomography methods based on spectral element simulations [Komatitsch and Tromp (1999)]. An initial database of 250 regional Middle Eastern events from 1990-2007, was inverted for depth and focal mechanism using teleseismic arrivals [Kikuchi and Kanamori (1982)] and regional surface and body waves [Zhao and Helmberger (1994)]. From this initial database, we reinterpreted a large, well recorded subset of 201 events through a direct comparison between data and synthetics based upon a centroid moment tensor inversion [Liu et al. (2004)]. Evaluation was done using both a 1D reference model [Dziewonski and Anderson (1981)] at periods greater than 80 seconds and a 3D model [Kustowski et al. (2008)] at periods of 25 seconds and longer. The final source reinterpretations will be within the 3D model, as this is the initial starting point for the adjoint tomography. Transitioning from a 1D to 3D wave speed model shows dramatic improvements when comparisons are done at shorter periods, (25 s). Synthetics from the 1D model were created through mode summations while those from the 3D simulations were created using the spectral element method. To further assess errors in source depth and focal mechanism, comparisons between the three methods were made. These comparisons help to identify problematic stations and sources which may bias the final solution. Estimates of standard errors were generated for each event's source depth and focal mechanism to identify poorly constrained events. A final, well characterized set of sources and stations will be then used to iteratively improve the wave speed model of the Middle East. After a few iterations during the adjoint inversion process, the sources will be reexamined and relocated to further reduce mapping of source errors into structural features. Finally, efforts continue in developing the infrastructure required to 'quickly' generate event kernels at the n-th iteration and invert for a new, (n+1)-th, wave speed model of the Middle East. While development of the infrastructure proceeds, initial tests using a limited number of events shows the 3D model, while showing vast improvement compared to the 1D model, still requires substantial modifications. Employing our new, full source set and iterating the adjoint inversions at successively shorter periods will lead to significant changes and refined wave speed structures of the Middle East.« less

Influence of video compression on the measurement error of the television system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotnik, A. V.; Yarishev, S. N.; Korotaev, V. V.

2015-05-01

Video data require a very large memory capacity. Optimal ratio quality / volume video encoding method is one of the most actual problem due to the urgent need to transfer large amounts of video over various networks. The technology of digital TV signal compression reduces the amount of data used for video stream representation. Video compression allows effective reduce the stream required for transmission and storage. It is important to take into account the uncertainties caused by compression of the video signal in the case of television measuring systems using. There are a lot digital compression methods. The aim of proposed work is research of video compression influence on the measurement error in television systems. Measurement error of the object parameter is the main characteristic of television measuring systems. Accuracy characterizes the difference between the measured value abd the actual parameter value. Errors caused by the optical system can be selected as a source of error in the television systems measurements. Method of the received video signal processing is also a source of error. Presence of error leads to large distortions in case of compression with constant data stream rate. Presence of errors increases the amount of data required to transmit or record an image frame in case of constant quality. The purpose of the intra-coding is reducing of the spatial redundancy within a frame (or field) of television image. This redundancy caused by the strong correlation between the elements of the image. It is possible to convert an array of image samples into a matrix of coefficients that are not correlated with each other, if one can find corresponding orthogonal transformation. It is possible to apply entropy coding to these uncorrelated coefficients and achieve a reduction in the digital stream. One can select such transformation that most of the matrix coefficients will be almost zero for typical images . Excluding these zero coefficients also possible reducing of the digital stream. Discrete cosine transformation is most widely used among possible orthogonal transformation. Errors of television measuring systems and data compression protocols analyzed In this paper. The main characteristics of measuring systems and detected sources of their error detected. The most effective methods of video compression are determined. The influence of video compression error on television measuring systems was researched. Obtained results will increase the accuracy of the measuring systems. In television image quality measuring system reduces distortion identical distortion in analog systems and specific distortions resulting from the process of coding / decoding digital video signal and errors in the transmission channel. By the distortions associated with encoding / decoding signal include quantization noise, reducing resolution, mosaic effect, "mosquito" effect edging on sharp drops brightness, blur colors, false patterns, the effect of "dirty window" and other defects. The size of video compression algorithms used in television measuring systems based on the image encoding with intra- and inter prediction individual fragments. The process of encoding / decoding image is non-linear in space and in time, because the quality of the playback of a movie at the reception depends on the pre- and post-history of a random, from the preceding and succeeding tracks, which can lead to distortion of the inadequacy of the sub-picture and a corresponding measuring signal.

Localization of extended brain sources from EEG/MEG: the ExSo-MUSIC approach.

PubMed

Birot, Gwénaël; Albera, Laurent; Wendling, Fabrice; Merlet, Isabelle

2011-05-01

We propose a new MUSIC-like method, called 2q-ExSo-MUSIC (q ≥ 1). This method is an extension of the 2q-MUSIC (q ≥ 1) approach for solving the EEG/MEG inverse problem, when spatially-extended neocortical sources ("ExSo") are considered. It introduces a novel ExSo-MUSIC principle. The novelty is two-fold: i) the parameterization of the spatial source distribution that leads to an appropriate metric in the context of distributed brain sources and ii) the introduction of an original, efficient and low-cost way of optimizing this metric. In 2q-ExSo-MUSIC, the possible use of higher order statistics (q ≥ 2) offers a better robustness with respect to Gaussian noise of unknown spatial coherence and modeling errors. As a result we reduced the penalizing effects of both the background cerebral activity that can be seen as a Gaussian and spatially correlated noise, and the modeling errors induced by the non-exact resolution of the forward problem. Computer results on simulated EEG signals obtained with physiologically-relevant models of both the sources and the volume conductor show a highly increased performance of our 2q-ExSo-MUSIC method as compared to the classical 2q-MUSIC algorithms. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human factors evaluation of remote afterloading brachytherapy: Human error and critical tasks in remote afterloading brachytherapy and approaches for improved system performance. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Callan, J.R.; Kelly, R.T.; Quinn, M.L.

1995-05-01

Remote Afterloading Brachytherapy (RAB) is a medical process used in the treatment of cancer. RAB uses a computer-controlled device to remotely insert and remove radioactive sources close to a target (or tumor) in the body. Some RAB problems affecting the radiation dose to the patient have been reported and attributed to human error. To determine the root cause of human error in the RAB system, a human factors team visited 23 RAB treatment sites in the US The team observed RAB treatment planning and delivery, interviewed RAB personnel, and performed walk-throughs, during which staff demonstrated the procedures and practices usedmore » in performing RAB tasks. Factors leading to human error in the RAB system were identified. The impact of those factors on the performance of RAB was then evaluated and prioritized in terms of safety significance. Finally, the project identified and evaluated alternative approaches for resolving the safety significant problems related to human error.« less

Predictors of Errors of Novice Java Programmers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bringula, Rex P.; Manabat, Geecee Maybelline A.; Tolentino, Miguel Angelo A.; Torres, Edmon L.

2012-01-01

This descriptive study determined which of the sources of errors would predict the errors committed by novice Java programmers. Descriptive statistics revealed that the respondents perceived that they committed the identified eighteen errors infrequently. Thought error was perceived to be the main source of error during the laboratory programming…

Incorporating approximation error in surrogate based Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.; Li, W.; Wu, L.

2015-12-01

There are increasing interests in applying surrogates for inverse Bayesian modeling to reduce repetitive evaluations of original model. In this way, the computational cost is expected to be saved. However, the approximation error of surrogate model is usually overlooked. This is partly because that it is difficult to evaluate the approximation error for many surrogates. Previous studies have shown that, the direct combination of surrogates and Bayesian methods (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC) may lead to biased estimations when the surrogate cannot emulate the highly nonlinear original system. This problem can be alleviated by implementing MCMC in a two-stage manner. However, the computational cost is still high since a relatively large number of original model simulations are required. In this study, we illustrate the importance of incorporating approximation error in inverse Bayesian modeling. Gaussian process (GP) is chosen to construct the surrogate for its convenience in approximation error evaluation. Numerical cases of Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for contaminant source identification are used to illustrate this idea. It is shown that, once the surrogate approximation error is well incorporated into Bayesian framework, promising results can be obtained even when the surrogate is directly used, and no further original model simulations are required.

A geometric model for initial orientation errors in pigeon navigation.

PubMed

Postlethwaite, Claire M; Walker, Michael M

2011-01-21

All mobile animals respond to gradients in signals in their environment, such as light, sound, odours and magnetic and electric fields, but it remains controversial how they might use these signals to navigate over long distances. The Earth's surface is essentially two-dimensional, so two stimuli are needed to act as coordinates for navigation. However, no environmental fields are known to be simple enough to act as perpendicular coordinates on a two-dimensional grid. Here, we propose a model for navigation in which we assume that an animal has a simplified 'cognitive map' in which environmental stimuli act as perpendicular coordinates. We then investigate how systematic deviation of the contour lines of the environmental signals from a simple orthogonal arrangement can cause errors in position determination and lead to systematic patterns of directional errors in initial homing directions taken by pigeons. The model reproduces patterns of initial orientation errors seen in previously collected data from homing pigeons, predicts that errors should increase with distance from the loft, and provides a basis for efforts to identify further sources of orientation errors made by homing pigeons. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric Multiple Scattering Effects on GLAS Altimetry. Part 2; Analysis of Expected Errors in Antarctic Altitude Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahesh, Ashwin; Spinhirne, James D.; Duda, David P.; Eloranta, Edwin W.; Starr, David O'C (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The altimetry bias in GLAS (Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) or other laser altimeters resulting from atmospheric multiple scattering is studied in relationship to current knowledge of cloud properties over the Antarctic Plateau. Estimates of seasonal and interannual changes in the bias are presented. Results show the bias in altitude from multiple scattering in clouds would be a significant error source without correction. The selective use of low optical depth clouds or cloudfree observations, as well as improved analysis of the return pulse such as by the Gaussian method used here, are necessary to minimize the surface altitude errors. The magnitude of the bias is affected by variations in cloud height, cloud effective particle size and optical depth. Interannual variations in these properties as well as in cloud cover fraction could lead to significant year-to-year variations in the altitude bias. Although cloud-free observations reduce biases in surface elevation measurements from space, over Antarctica these may often include near-surface blowing snow, also a source of scattering-induced delay. With careful selection and analysis of data, laser altimetry specifications can be met.

Sources of error in the retracted scientific literature.

PubMed

Casadevall, Arturo; Steen, R Grant; Fang, Ferric C

2014-09-01

Retraction of flawed articles is an important mechanism for correction of the scientific literature. We recently reported that the majority of retractions are associated with scientific misconduct. In the current study, we focused on the subset of retractions for which no misconduct was identified, in order to identify the major causes of error. Analysis of the retraction notices for 423 articles indexed in PubMed revealed that the most common causes of error-related retraction are laboratory errors, analytical errors, and irreproducible results. The most common laboratory errors are contamination and problems relating to molecular biology procedures (e.g., sequencing, cloning). Retractions due to contamination were more common in the past, whereas analytical errors are now increasing in frequency. A number of publications that have not been retracted despite being shown to contain significant errors suggest that barriers to retraction may impede correction of the literature. In particular, few cases of retraction due to cell line contamination were found despite recognition that this problem has affected numerous publications. An understanding of the errors leading to retraction can guide practices to improve laboratory research and the integrity of the scientific literature. Perhaps most important, our analysis has identified major problems in the mechanisms used to rectify the scientific literature and suggests a need for action by the scientific community to adopt protocols that ensure the integrity of the publication process. © FASEB.

Clinical Dental Faculty Members' Perceptions of Diagnostic Errors and How to Avoid Them.

PubMed

Nikdel, Cathy; Nikdel, Kian; Ibarra-Noriega, Ana; Kalenderian, Elsbeth; Walji, Muhammad F

2018-04-01

Diagnostic errors are increasingly recognized as a source of preventable harm in medicine, yet little is known about their occurrence in dentistry. The aim of this study was to gain a deeper understanding of clinical dental faculty members' perceptions of diagnostic errors, types of errors that may occur, and possible contributing factors. The authors conducted semi-structured interviews with ten domain experts at one U.S. dental school in May-August 2016 about their perceptions of diagnostic errors and their causes. The interviews were analyzed using an inductive process to identify themes and key findings. The results showed that the participants varied in their definitions of diagnostic errors. While all identified missed diagnosis and wrong diagnosis, only four participants perceived that a delay in diagnosis was a diagnostic error. Some participants perceived that an error occurs only when the choice of treatment leads to harm. Contributing factors associated with diagnostic errors included the knowledge and skills of the dentist, not taking adequate time, lack of communication among colleagues, and cognitive biases such as premature closure based on previous experience. Strategies suggested by the participants to prevent these errors were taking adequate time when investigating a case, forming study groups, increasing communication, and putting more emphasis on differential diagnosis. These interviews revealed differing perceptions of dental diagnostic errors among clinical dental faculty members. To address the variations, the authors recommend adopting shared language developed by the medical profession to increase understanding.

Asymmetry of Line Profiles of Stellar Oscillations Measured by Kepler for Ensembles of Solar-like Oscillators: Impact on Mode Frequencies and Dependence on Effective Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benomar, O.; Goupil, Mjo.; Belkacem, K.; Appourchaux, T.; Nielsen, M. B.; Bazot, M.; Gizon, L.; Hanasoge, S.; Sreenivasan, K. R.; Marchand, B.

2018-04-01

Oscillation properties are usually measured by fitting symmetric Lorentzian profiles to the power spectra of Sun-like stars. However, the line profiles of solar oscillations have been observed to be asymmetrical for the Sun. The physical origin of this line asymmetry is not fully understood; though, it should depend on the depth dependence of the source of wave excitation (convective turbulence) and details of the observable (velocity or intensity). For oscillations of the Sun, it has been shown that neglecting the asymmetry leads to systematic errors in the frequency determination. This could subsequently affect the results of seismic inferences of the solar internal structure. Using light curves from the Kepler spacecraft, we have measured mode asymmetries in 43 stars. We confirm that neglecting the asymmetry leads to systematic errors that can exceed the 1σ confidence intervals for seismic observations longer than one year. Therefore, the application of an asymmetric Lorentzian profile should be favored to improve the accuracy of the internal stellar structure and stellar fundamental parameters. We also show that the asymmetry changes sign between cool Sun-like stars and hotter stars. This provides the best constraints to date on the location of the excitation sources across the Hertzsprung–Russel diagram.

A Monte-Carlo Bayesian framework for urban rainfall error modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa Rodriguez, Susana; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick; Onof, Christian

2016-04-01

Rainfall estimates of the highest possible accuracy and resolution are required for urban hydrological applications, given the small size and fast response which characterise urban catchments. While significant progress has been made in recent years towards meeting rainfall input requirements for urban hydrology -including increasing use of high spatial resolution radar rainfall estimates in combination with point rain gauge records- rainfall estimates will never be perfect and the true rainfall field is, by definition, unknown [1]. Quantifying the residual errors in rainfall estimates is crucial in order to understand their reliability, as well as the impact that their uncertainty may have in subsequent runoff estimates. The quantification of errors in rainfall estimates has been an active topic of research for decades. However, existing rainfall error models have several shortcomings, including the fact that they are limited to describing errors associated to a single data source (i.e. errors associated to rain gauge measurements or radar QPEs alone) and to a single representative error source (e.g. radar-rain gauge differences, spatial temporal resolution). Moreover, rainfall error models have been mostly developed for and tested at large scales. Studies at urban scales are mostly limited to analyses of propagation of errors in rain gauge records-only through urban drainage models and to tests of model sensitivity to uncertainty arising from unmeasured rainfall variability. Only few radar rainfall error models -originally developed for large scales- have been tested at urban scales [2] and have been shown to fail to well capture small-scale storm dynamics, including storm peaks, which are of utmost important for urban runoff simulations. In this work a Monte-Carlo Bayesian framework for rainfall error modelling at urban scales is introduced, which explicitly accounts for relevant errors (arising from insufficient accuracy and/or resolution) in multiple data sources (in this case radar and rain gauge estimates typically available at present), while at the same time enabling dynamic combination of these data sources (thus not only quantifying uncertainty, but also reducing it). This model generates an ensemble of merged rainfall estimates, which can then be used as input to urban drainage models in order to examine how uncertainties in rainfall estimates propagate to urban runoff estimates. The proposed model is tested using as case study a detailed rainfall and flow dataset, and a carefully verified urban drainage model of a small (~9 km2) pilot catchment in North-East London. The model has shown to well characterise residual errors in rainfall data at urban scales (which remain after the merging), leading to improved runoff estimates. In fact, the majority of measured flow peaks are bounded within the uncertainty area produced by the runoff ensembles generated with the ensemble rainfall inputs. REFERENCES: [1] Ciach, G. J. & Krajewski, W. F. (1999). On the estimation of radar rainfall error variance. Advances in Water Resources, 22 (6), 585-595. [2] Rico-Ramirez, M. A., Liguori, S. & Schellart, A. N. A. (2015). Quantifying radar-rainfall uncertainties in urban drainage flow modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 528, 17-28.

Quantifying the Contributions of Environmental Parameters to Ceres Surface Net Radiation Error in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, X.; Yang, Y.; Liu, Y.; Fan, X.; Shan, L.; Zhang, X.

2018-04-01

Error source analyses are critical for the satellite-retrieved surface net radiation (Rn) products. In this study, we evaluate the Rn error sources in the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project at 43 sites from July in 2007 to December in 2007 in China. The results show that cloud fraction (CF), land surface temperature (LST), atmospheric temperature (AT) and algorithm error dominate the Rn error, with error contributions of -20, 15, 10 and 10 W/m2 (net shortwave (NSW)/longwave (NLW) radiation), respectively. For NSW, the dominant error source is algorithm error (more than 10 W/m2), particularly in spring and summer with abundant cloud. For NLW, due to the high sensitivity of algorithm and large LST/CF error, LST and CF are the largest error sources, especially in northern China. The AT influences the NLW error large in southern China because of the large AT error in there. The total precipitable water has weak influence on Rn error even with the high sensitivity of algorithm. In order to improve Rn quality, CF and LST (AT) error in northern (southern) China should be decreased.

Dye shift: a neglected source of genotyping error in molecular ecology.

PubMed

Sutton, Jolene T; Robertson, Bruce C; Jamieson, Ian G

2011-05-01

Molecular ecologists must be vigilant in detecting and accounting for genotyping error, yet potential errors stemming from dye-induced mobility shift (dye shift) may be frequently neglected and largely unknown to researchers who employ 3-primer systems with automated genotyping. When left uncorrected, dye shift can lead to mis-scoring alleles and even to falsely calling new alleles if different dyes are used to genotype the same locus in subsequent reactions. When we used four different fluorophore labels from a standard dye set to genotype the same set of loci, differences in the resulting size estimates for a single allele ranged from 2.07 bp to 3.68 bp. The strongest effects were associated with the fluorophore PET, and relative degree of dye shift was inversely related to locus size. We found little evidence in the literature that dye shift is regularly accounted for in 3-primer studies, despite knowledge of this phenomenon existing for over a decade. However, we did find some references to erroneous standard correction factors for the same set of dyes that we tested. We thus reiterate the need for strict quality control when attempting to reduce possible sources of genotyping error, and in cases where different dyes are applied to a single locus, perhaps mistakenly, we strongly discourage researchers from assuming generic correction patterns. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Influence of conservative corrections on parameter estimation for extreme-mass-ratio inspirals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerta, E. A.; Gair, Jonathan R.

2009-04-01

We present an improved numerical kludge waveform model for circular, equatorial extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). The model is based on true Kerr geodesics, augmented by radiative self-force corrections derived from perturbative calculations, and in this paper for the first time we include conservative self-force corrections that we derive by comparison to post-Newtonian results. We present results of a Monte Carlo simulation of parameter estimation errors computed using the Fisher matrix and also assess the theoretical errors that would arise from omitting the conservative correction terms we include here. We present results for three different types of system, namely, the inspirals of black holes, neutron stars, or white dwarfs into a supermassive black hole (SMBH). The analysis shows that for a typical source (a 10M⊙ compact object captured by a 106M⊙ SMBH at a signal to noise ratio of 30) we expect to determine the two masses to within a fractional error of ˜10-4, measure the spin parameter q to ˜10-4.5, and determine the location of the source on the sky and the spin orientation to within 10-3 steradians. We show that, for this kludge model, omitting the conservative corrections leads to a small error over much of the parameter space, i.e., the ratio R of the theoretical model error to the Fisher matrix error is R<1 for all ten parameters in the model. For the few systems with larger errors typically R<3 and hence the conservative corrections can be marginally ignored. In addition, we use our model and first-order self-force results for Schwarzschild black holes to estimate the error that arises from omitting the second-order radiative piece of the self-force. This indicates that it may not be necessary to go beyond first order to recover accurate parameter estimates.

Error-related negativity varies with the activation of gender stereotypes.

PubMed

Ma, Qingguo; Shu, Liangchao; Wang, Xiaoyi; Dai, Shenyi; Che, Hongmin

2008-09-19

The error-related negativity (ERN) was suggested to reflect the response-performance monitoring process. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the activation of gender stereotypes influences the ERN. Twenty-eight male participants were asked to complete a tool or kitchenware identification task. The prime stimulus is a picture of a male or female face and the target stimulus is either a kitchen utensil or a hand tool. The ERN amplitude on male-kitchenware trials is significantly larger than that on female-kitchenware trials, which reveals the low-level, automatic activation of gender stereotypes. The ERN that was elicited in this task has two sources--operation errors and the conflict between the gender stereotype activation and the non-prejudice beliefs. And the gender stereotype activation may be the key factor leading to this difference of ERN. In other words, the stereotype activation in this experimental paradigm may be indexed by the ERN.

Solving ill-posed control problems by stabilized finite element methods: an alternative to Tikhonov regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burman, Erik; Hansbo, Peter; Larson, Mats G.

2018-03-01

Tikhonov regularization is one of the most commonly used methods for the regularization of ill-posed problems. In the setting of finite element solutions of elliptic partial differential control problems, Tikhonov regularization amounts to adding suitably weighted least squares terms of the control variable, or derivatives thereof, to the Lagrangian determining the optimality system. In this note we show that the stabilization methods for discretely ill-posed problems developed in the setting of convection-dominated convection-diffusion problems, can be highly suitable for stabilizing optimal control problems, and that Tikhonov regularization will lead to less accurate discrete solutions. We consider some inverse problems for Poisson’s equation as an illustration and derive new error estimates both for the reconstruction of the solution from the measured data and reconstruction of the source term from the measured data. These estimates include both the effect of the discretization error and error in the measurements.

A statistical study of radio-source structure effects on astrometric very long baseline interferometry observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulvestad, J. S.

1989-01-01

Errors from a number of sources in astrometric very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) have been reduced in recent years through a variety of methods of calibration and modeling. Such reductions have led to a situation in which the extended structure of the natural radio sources used in VLBI is a significant error source in the effort to improve the accuracy of the radio reference frame. In the past, work has been done on individual radio sources to establish the magnitude of the errors caused by their particular structures. The results of calculations on 26 radio sources are reported in which an effort is made to determine the typical delay and delay-rate errors for a number of sources having different types of structure. It is found that for single observations of the types of radio sources present in astrometric catalogs, group-delay and phase-delay scatter in the 50 to 100 psec range due to source structure can be expected at 8.4 GHz on the intercontinental baselines available in the Deep Space Network (DSN). Delay-rate scatter of approx. 5 x 10(exp -15) sec sec(exp -1) (or approx. 0.002 mm sec (exp -1) is also expected. If such errors mapped directly into source position errors, they would correspond to position uncertainties of approx. 2 to 5 nrad, similar to the best position determinations in the current JPL VLBI catalog. With the advent of wider bandwidth VLBI systems on the large DSN antennas, the system noise will be low enough so that the structure-induced errors will be a significant part of the error budget. Several possibilities for reducing the structure errors are discussed briefly, although it is likely that considerable effort will have to be devoted to the structure problem in order to reduce the typical error by a factor of two or more.

Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Todling, Ricardo; Marchesin, Dan

2000-01-01

Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.

High frequency observations of Iapetus on the Green Bank Telescope aided by improvements in understanding the telescope response to wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ries, Paul A.

2012-05-01

The Green Bank Telescope is a 100m, fully steerable, single dish radio telescope located in Green Bank, West Virginia and capable of making observations from meter wavelengths to 3mm. However, observations at wavelengths short of 2 cm pose significant observational challenges due to pointing and surface errors. The first part of this thesis details efforts to combat wind-induced pointing errors, which reduce by half the amount of time available for high-frequency work on the telescope. The primary tool used for understanding these errors was an optical quadrant detector that monitored the motion of the telescope's feed arm. In this work, a calibration was developed that tied quadrant detector readings directly to telescope pointing error. These readings can be used for single-beam observations in order to determine if the telescope was blown off-source at some point due to wind. With observations with the 3 mm MUSTANG bolometer array, pointing errors due to wind can mostly be removed (> ⅔) during data reduction. Iapetus is a moon known for its stark albedo dichotomy, with the leading hemisphere only a tenth as bright as the trailing. In order to investigate this dichotomy, Iapetus was observed repeatedly with the GBT at wavelengths between 3 and 11 mm, with the original intention being to use the data to determine a thermal light-curve. Instead, the data showed incredible wavelength-dependent deviation from a black-body curve, with an emissivity as low as 0.3 at 9 mm. Numerous techniques were used to demonstrate that this low emissivity is a physical phenomenon rather than an observational one, including some using the quadrant detector to make sure the low emissivities are not due to being blown off source. This emissivity is the among the lowest ever detected in the solar system, but can be achieved using physically realistic ice models that are also used to model microwave emission from snowpacks and glaciers on Earth. These models indicate that the trailing hemisphere contains a scattering layer of depth 100 cm and grain size of 1-2 mm. The leading hemisphere is shown to exhibit a thermal depth effect.

North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA): VHF Source Retrieval Algorithm and Error Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W. J.; Solakiewicz, R. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.; Christian, H. J.; Hall, J.; Bailey, J.; Krider, E. P.; Bateman, M. G.; Boccippio, D.

2003-01-01

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix Theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50 ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results. However, for many source locations, the Curvature Matrix Theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Catastrophic photometric redshift errors: Weak-lensing survey requirements

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Gary; Huterer, Dragan

2010-01-11

We study the sensitivity of weak lensing surveys to the effects of catastrophic redshift errors - cases where the true redshift is misestimated by a significant amount. To compute the biases in cosmological parameters, we adopt an efficient linearized analysis where the redshift errors are directly related to shifts in the weak lensing convergence power spectra. We estimate the number N spec of unbiased spectroscopic redshifts needed to determine the catastrophic error rate well enough that biases in cosmological parameters are below statistical errors of weak lensing tomography. While the straightforward estimate of N spec is ~10 6 we findmore » that using only the photometric redshifts with z ≤ 2.5 leads to a drastic reduction in N spec to ~ 30,000 while negligibly increasing statistical errors in dark energy parameters. Therefore, the size of spectroscopic survey needed to control catastrophic errors is similar to that previously deemed necessary to constrain the core of the z s – z p distribution. We also study the efficacy of the recent proposal to measure redshift errors by cross-correlation between the photo-z and spectroscopic samples. We find that this method requires ~ 10% a priori knowledge of the bias and stochasticity of the outlier population, and is also easily confounded by lensing magnification bias. In conclusion, the cross-correlation method is therefore unlikely to supplant the need for a complete spectroscopic redshift survey of the source population.« less

Reconstruction of lightning channel geometry by localizing thunder sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodhika, J. A. P.; Dharmarathna, W. G. D.; Fernando, Mahendra; Cooray, Vernon

2013-09-01

Thunder is generated as a result of a shock wave created by sudden expansion of air in the lightning channel due to high temperature variations. Even though the highest amplitudes of thunder signatures are generated at the return stroke stage, thunder signals generated at other events such as preliminary breakdown pulses also can be of amplitudes which are large enough to record using a sensitive system. In this study, it was attempted to reconstruct the lightning channel geometry of cloud and ground flashes by locating the temporal and spatial variations of thunder sources. Six lightning flashes were reconstructed using the recorded thunder signatures. Possible effects due to atmospheric conditions were neglected. Numerical calculations suggest that the time resolution of the recorded signal and 10 ms-1error in speed of sound leads to 2% and 3% errors, respectively, in the calculated coordinates. Reconstructed channel geometries for cloud and ground flashes agreed with the visual observations. Results suggest that the lightning channel can be successfully reconstructed using this technique.

Accounting for sampling variability, injury under-reporting, and sensor error in concussion injury risk curves.

PubMed

Elliott, Michael R; Margulies, Susan S; Maltese, Matthew R; Arbogast, Kristy B

2015-09-18

There has been recent dramatic increase in the use of sensors affixed to the heads or helmets of athletes to measure the biomechanics of head impacts that lead to concussion. The relationship between injury and linear or rotational head acceleration measured by such sensors can be quantified with an injury risk curve. The utility of the injury risk curve relies on the accuracy of both the clinical diagnosis and the biomechanical measure. The focus of our analysis was to demonstrate the influence of three sources of error on the shape and interpretation of concussion injury risk curves: sampling variability associated with a rare event, concussion under-reporting, and sensor measurement error. We utilized Bayesian statistical methods to generate synthetic data from previously published concussion injury risk curves developed using data from helmet-based sensors on collegiate football players and assessed the effect of the three sources of error on the risk relationship. Accounting for sampling variability adds uncertainty or width to the injury risk curve. Assuming a variety of rates of unreported concussions in the non-concussed group, we found that accounting for under-reporting lowers the rotational acceleration required for a given concussion risk. Lastly, after accounting for sensor error, we find strengthened relationships between rotational acceleration and injury risk, further lowering the magnitude of rotational acceleration needed for a given risk of concussion. As more accurate sensors are designed and more sensitive and specific clinical diagnostic tools are introduced, our analysis provides guidance for the future development of comprehensive concussion risk curves. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement uncertainty and feasibility study of a flush airdata system for a hypersonic flight experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen A.; Moes, Timothy R.

1994-01-01

Presented is a feasibility and error analysis for a hypersonic flush airdata system on a hypersonic flight experiment (HYFLITE). HYFLITE heating loads make intrusive airdata measurement impractical. Although this analysis is specifically for the HYFLITE vehicle and trajectory, the problems analyzed are generally applicable to hypersonic vehicles. A layout of the flush-port matrix is shown. Surface pressures are related airdata parameters using a simple aerodynamic model. The model is linearized using small perturbations and inverted using nonlinear least-squares. Effects of various error sources on the overall uncertainty are evaluated using an error simulation. Error sources modeled include boundarylayer/viscous interactions, pneumatic lag, thermal transpiration in the sensor pressure tubing, misalignment in the matrix layout, thermal warping of the vehicle nose, sampling resolution, and transducer error. Using simulated pressure data for input to the estimation algorithm, effects caused by various error sources are analyzed by comparing estimator outputs with the original trajectory. To obtain ensemble averages the simulation is run repeatedly and output statistics are compiled. Output errors resulting from the various error sources are presented as a function of Mach number. Final uncertainties with all modeled error sources included are presented as a function of Mach number.

Precision Approach Radar Training System (PARTS) Training Effectiveness Evaluation

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-08-01

as complex as PARTS, the many interactions between hardware and software could lead to such intermittent problems. Finding the sources of these...provided with the opportunity to excercise some training options such as selecting practice or review when they feel it necessary. This is not to suggest...Replay had a fast -forward". Because "Replay with Errors" is important for learning, students should not be discouraged from selecting it by the

Parameter estimation for slit-type scanning sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowler, J. W.; Rolfe, E. G.

1981-01-01

The Infrared Astronomical Satellite, scheduled for launch into a 900 km near-polar orbit in August 1982, will perform an infrared point source survey by scanning the sky with slit-type sensors. The description of position information is shown to require the use of a non-Gaussian random variable. Methods are described for deciding whether separate detections stem from a single common source, and a formulism is developed for the scan-to-scan problems of identifying multiple sightings of inertially fixed point sources for combining their individual measurements into a refined estimate. Several cases are given where the general theory yields results which are quite different from the corresponding Gaussian applications, showing that argument by Gaussian analogy would lead to error.

Impact of transport and modelling errors on the estimation of methane sources and sinks by inverse modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Locatelli, Robin; Bousquet, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric

2013-04-01

Since the nineties, inverse modelling by assimilating atmospheric measurements into a chemical transport model (CTM) has been used to derive sources and sinks of atmospheric trace gases. More recently, the high global warming potential of methane (CH4) and unexplained variations of its atmospheric mixing ratio caught the attention of several research groups. Indeed, the diversity and the variability of methane sources induce high uncertainty on the present and the future evolution of CH4 budget. With the increase of available measurement data to constrain inversions (satellite data, high frequency surface and tall tower observations, FTIR spectrometry,...), the main limiting factor is about to become the representation of atmospheric transport in CTMs. Indeed, errors in transport modelling directly converts into flux changes when assuming perfect transport in atmospheric inversions. Hence, we propose an inter-model comparison in order to quantify the impact of transport and modelling errors on the CH4 fluxes estimated into a variational inversion framework. Several inversion experiments are conducted using the same set-up (prior emissions, measurement and prior errors, OH field, initial conditions) of the variational system PYVAR, developed at LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, France). Nine different models (ACTM, IFS, IMPACT, IMPACT1x1, MOZART, PCTM, TM5, TM51x1 and TOMCAT) used in TRANSCOM-CH4 experiment (Patra el al, 2011) provide synthetic measurements data at up to 280 surface sites to constrain the inversions performed using the PYVAR system. Only the CTM (and the meteorological drivers which drive them) used to create the pseudo-observations vary among inversions. Consequently, the comparisons of the nine inverted methane fluxes obtained for 2005 give a good order of magnitude of the impact of transport and modelling errors on the estimated fluxes with current and future networks. It is shown that transport and modelling errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 TgCH4 per year at global scale, representing 5% of the total methane emissions for 2005. At continental scale, transport and modelling errors have bigger impacts in proportion to the area of the regions, ranging from 36 TgCH4 in North America to 7 TgCH4 in Boreal Eurasian, with a percentage range from 23% to 48%. Thus, contribution of transport and modelling errors to the mismatch between measurements and simulated methane concentrations is large considering the present questions on the methane budget. Moreover, diagnostics of statistics errors included in our inversions have been computed. It shows that errors contained in measurement errors covariance matrix are under-estimated in current inversions, suggesting to include more properly transport and modelling errors in future inversions.

Determination of Barometric Altimeter Errors for the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Denise L.; Munoz, Jean-Philippe; Gay, Robert

2011-01-01

The EFT-1 mission is the unmanned flight test for the upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). During entry, the EFT-1 vehicle will trigger several Landing and Recovery System (LRS) events, such as parachute deployment, based on onboard altitude information. The primary altitude source is the filtered navigation solution updated with GPS measurement data. The vehicle also has three barometric altimeters that will be used to measure atmospheric pressure during entry. In the event that GPS data is not available during entry, the altitude derived from the barometric altimeter pressure will be used to trigger chute deployment for the drogues and main parachutes. Therefore it is important to understand the impact of error sources on the pressure measured by the barometric altimeters and on the altitude derived from that pressure. There are four primary error sources impacting the sensed pressure: sensor errors, Analog to Digital conversion errors, aerodynamic errors, and atmosphere modeling errors. This last error source is induced by the conversion from pressure to altitude in the vehicle flight software, which requires an atmosphere model such as the US Standard 1976 Atmosphere model. There are several secondary error sources as well, such as waves, tides, and latencies in data transmission. Typically, for error budget calculations it is assumed that all error sources are independent, normally distributed variables. Thus, the initial approach to developing the EFT-1 barometric altimeter altitude error budget was to create an itemized error budget under these assumptions. This budget was to be verified by simulation using high fidelity models of the vehicle hardware and software. The simulation barometric altimeter model includes hardware error sources and a data-driven model of the aerodynamic errors expected to impact the pressure in the midbay compartment in which the sensors are located. The aerodynamic model includes the pressure difference between the midbay compartment and the free stream pressure as a function of altitude, oscillations in sensed pressure due to wake effects, and an acoustics model capturing fluctuations in pressure due to motion of the passive vents separating the barometric altimeters from the outside of the vehicle.

Impact of deposition-rate fluctuations on thin-film thickness and uniformity

DOE PAGES

Oliver, Joli B.

2016-11-04

Variations in deposition rate are superimposed on a thin-film–deposition model with planetary rotation to determine the impact on film thickness. Variations in magnitude and frequency of the fluctuations relative to the speed of planetary revolution lead to thickness errors and uniformity variations up to 3%. Sufficiently rapid oscillations in the deposition rate have a negligible impact, while slow oscillations are found to be problematic, leading to changes in the nominal film thickness. Finally, superimposing noise as random fluctuations in the deposition rate has a negligible impact, confirming the importance of any underlying harmonic oscillations in deposition rate or source operation.

Analysis of Vibratory Excitation of Gear Systems as a Contributor to Aircraft Interior Noise. [helicopter cabin noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mark, W. D.

1979-01-01

Application of the transfer function approach to predict the resulting interior noise contribution requires gearbox vibration sources and paths to be characterized in the frequency domain. Tooth-face deviations from perfect involute surfaces were represented in terms of Legendre polynomials which may be directly interpreted in terms of tooth-spacing errors, mean and random deviations associated with involute slope and fullness, lead mismatch and crowning, and analogous higher-order components. The contributions of these components to the spectrum of the static transmission error is discussed and illustrated using a set of measurements made on a pair of helicopter spur gears. The general methodology presented is applicable to both spur and helical gears.

Design, performance, and calculated error of a Faraday cup for absolute beam current measurements of 600-MeV protons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beck, S. M.

1975-01-01

A mobile self-contained Faraday cup system for beam current measurments of nominal 600 MeV protons was designed, constructed, and used at the NASA Space Radiation Effects Laboratory. The cup is of reentrant design with a length of 106.7 cm and an outside diameter of 20.32 cm. The inner diameter is 15.24 cm and the base thickness is 30.48 cm. The primary absorber is commercially available lead hermetically sealed in a 0.32-cm-thick copper jacket. Several possible systematic errors in using the cup are evaluated. The largest source of error arises from high-energy electrons which are ejected from the entrance window and enter the cup. A total systematic error of -0.83 percent is calculated to be the decrease from the true current value. From data obtained in calibrating helium-filled ion chambers with the Faraday cup, the mean energy required to produce one ion pair in helium is found to be 30.76 + or - 0.95 eV for nominal 600 MeV protons. This value agrees well, within experimental error, with reported values of 29.9 eV and 30.2 eV.

Assessing error sources for Landsat time series analysis for tropical test sites in Viet Nam and Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Michael; Verbesselt, Jan; Herold, Martin; Avitabile, Valerio

2013-10-01

Researchers who use remotely sensed data can spend half of their total effort analysing prior data. If this data preprocessing does not match the application, this time spent on data analysis can increase considerably and can lead to inaccuracies. Despite the existence of a number of methods for pre-processing Landsat time series, each method has shortcomings, particularly for mapping forest changes under varying illumination, data availability and atmospheric conditions. Based on the requirements of mapping forest changes as defined by the United Nations (UN) Reducing Emissions from Forest Degradation and Deforestation (REDD) program, the accurate reporting of the spatio-temporal properties of these changes is necessary. We compared the impact of three fundamentally different radiometric preprocessing techniques Moderate Resolution Atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN), Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) and simple Dark Object Subtraction (DOS) on mapping forest changes using Landsat time series data. A modification of Breaks For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) monitor was used to jointly map the spatial and temporal agreement of forest changes at test sites in Ethiopia and Viet Nam. The suitability of the pre-processing methods for the occurring forest change drivers was assessed using recently captured Ground Truth and high resolution data (1000 points). A method for creating robust generic forest maps used for the sampling design is presented. An assessment of error sources has been performed identifying haze as a major source for time series analysis commission error.

Predicting and interpreting identification errors in military vehicle training using multidimensional scaling.

PubMed

Bohil, Corey J; Higgins, Nicholas A; Keebler, Joseph R

2014-01-01

We compared methods for predicting and understanding the source of confusion errors during military vehicle identification training. Participants completed training to identify main battle tanks. They also completed card-sorting and similarity-rating tasks to express their mental representation of resemblance across the set of training items. We expected participants to selectively attend to a subset of vehicle features during these tasks, and we hypothesised that we could predict identification confusion errors based on the outcomes of the card-sort and similarity-rating tasks. Based on card-sorting results, we were able to predict about 45% of observed identification confusions. Based on multidimensional scaling of the similarity-rating data, we could predict more than 80% of identification confusions. These methods also enabled us to infer the dimensions receiving significant attention from each participant. This understanding of mental representation may be crucial in creating personalised training that directs attention to features that are critical for accurate identification. Participants completed military vehicle identification training and testing, along with card-sorting and similarity-rating tasks. The data enabled us to predict up to 84% of identification confusion errors and to understand the mental representation underlying these errors. These methods have potential to improve training and reduce identification errors leading to fratricide.

Propagation of spectral characterization errors of imaging spectrometers at level-1 and its correction within a level-2 recalibration scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicent, Jorge; Alonso, Luis; Sabater, Neus; Miesch, Christophe; Kraft, Stefan; Moreno, Jose

2015-09-01

The uncertainties in the knowledge of the Instrument Spectral Response Function (ISRF), barycenter of the spectral channels and bandwidth / spectral sampling (spectral resolution) are important error sources in the processing of satellite imaging spectrometers within narrow atmospheric absorption bands. The exhaustive laboratory spectral characterization is a costly engineering process that differs from the instrument configuration in-flight given the harsh space environment and harmful launching phase. The retrieval schemes at Level-2 commonly assume a Gaussian ISRF, leading to uncorrected spectral stray-light effects and wrong characterization and correction of the spectral shift and smile. These effects produce inaccurate atmospherically corrected data and are propagated to the final Level-2 mission products. Within ESA's FLEX satellite mission activities, the impact of the ISRF knowledge error and spectral calibration at Level-1 products and its propagation to Level-2 retrieved chlorophyll fluorescence has been analyzed. A spectral recalibration scheme has been implemented at Level-2 reducing the errors in Level-1 products below the 10% error in retrieved fluorescence within the oxygen absorption bands enhancing the quality of the retrieved products. The work presented here shows how the minimization of the spectral calibration errors requires an effort both for the laboratory characterization and for the implementation of specific algorithms at Level-2.

Field errors in hybrid insertion devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlueter, R.D.

1995-02-01

Hybrid magnet theory as applied to the error analyses used in the design of Advanced Light Source (ALS) insertion devices is reviewed. Sources of field errors in hybrid insertion devices are discussed.

Effects of Optical Combiner and IPD Change for Convergence on Near-Field Depth Perception in an Optical See-Through HMD.

PubMed

Lee, Sangyoon; Hu, Xinda; Hua, Hong

2016-05-01

Many error sources have been explored in regards to the depth perception problem in augmented reality environments using optical see-through head-mounted displays (OST-HMDs). Nonetheless, two error sources are commonly neglected: the ray-shift phenomenon and the change in interpupillary distance (IPD). The first source of error arises from the difference in refraction for virtual and see-through optical paths caused by an optical combiner, which is required of OST-HMDs. The second occurs from the change in the viewer's IPD due to eye convergence. In this paper, we analyze the effects of these two error sources on near-field depth perception and propose methods to compensate for these two types of errors. Furthermore, we investigate their effectiveness through an experiment comparing the conditions with and without our error compensation methods applied. In our experiment, participants estimated the egocentric depth of a virtual and a physical object located at seven different near-field distances (40∼200 cm) using a perceptual matching task. Although the experimental results showed different patterns depending on the target distance, the results demonstrated that the near-field depth perception error can be effectively reduced to a very small level (at most 1 percent error) by compensating for the two mentioned error sources.

Meteorological Error Budget Using Open Source Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

ARL-TR-7831 ● SEP 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Meteorological Error Budget Using Open- Source Data by J Cogan, J Smith, P...needed. Do not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7831 ● SEP 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Meteorological Error Budget Using...Error Budget Using Open-Source Data 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) J Cogan, J Smith, P Haines

A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

2012-12-01

The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique. Initial perturbations are integrated forward for a short time period and then rescaled and added to the initial state again. Iterating this rapid breeding cycle provides estimates for the initial uncertainty structure (or local Lyapunov vectors) given a specific norm. To avoid that all ensemble perturbations converge towards the leading local Lyapunov vector we apply an ensemble transform variant to orthogonalize the perturbations in the sub-space spanned by the ensemble. By choosing different kind of norms to measure perturbation growth, this technique allows for estimating uncertainty patterns targeted at specific sources of errors (e.g. convection, turbulence). With case study experiments we show applications of the self-breeding method for different sources of uncertainty and different horizontal scales.

Measurement error in environmental epidemiology and the shape of exposure-response curves.

PubMed

Rhomberg, Lorenz R; Chandalia, Juhi K; Long, Christopher M; Goodman, Julie E

2011-09-01

Both classical and Berkson exposure measurement errors as encountered in environmental epidemiology data can result in biases in fitted exposure-response relationships that are large enough to affect the interpretation and use of the apparent exposure-response shapes in risk assessment applications. A variety of sources of potential measurement error exist in the process of estimating individual exposures to environmental contaminants, and the authors review the evaluation in the literature of the magnitudes and patterns of exposure measurement errors that prevail in actual practice. It is well known among statisticians that random errors in the values of independent variables (such as exposure in exposure-response curves) may tend to bias regression results. For increasing curves, this effect tends to flatten and apparently linearize what is in truth a steeper and perhaps more curvilinear or even threshold-bearing relationship. The degree of bias is tied to the magnitude of the measurement error in the independent variables. It has been shown that the degree of bias known to apply to actual studies is sufficient to produce a false linear result, and that although nonparametric smoothing and other error-mitigating techniques may assist in identifying a threshold, they do not guarantee detection of a threshold. The consequences of this could be great, as it could lead to a misallocation of resources towards regulations that do not offer any benefit to public health.

Survey and Method for Determination of Trajectory Predictor Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rentas, Tamika L.; Green, Steven M.; Cate, Karen Tung

2009-01-01

A survey of air-traffic-management researchers, representing a broad range of automation applications, was conducted to document trajectory-predictor requirements for future decision-support systems. Results indicated that the researchers were unable to articulate a basic set of trajectory-prediction requirements for their automation concepts. Survey responses showed the need to establish a process to help developers determine the trajectory-predictor-performance requirements for their concepts. Two methods for determining trajectory-predictor requirements are introduced. A fast-time simulation method is discussed that captures the sensitivity of a concept to the performance of its trajectory-prediction capability. A characterization method is proposed to provide quicker, yet less precise results, based on analysis and simulation to characterize the trajectory-prediction errors associated with key modeling options for a specific concept. Concept developers can then identify the relative sizes of errors associated with key modeling options, and qualitatively determine which options lead to significant errors. The characterization method is demonstrated for a case study involving future airport surface traffic management automation. Of the top four sources of error, results indicated that the error associated with accelerations to and from turn speeds was unacceptable, the error associated with the turn path model was acceptable, and the error associated with taxi-speed estimation was of concern and needed a higher fidelity concept simulation to obtain a more precise result

Assessing the statistical significance of the achieved classification error of classifiers constructed using serum peptide profiles, and a prescription for random sampling repeated studies for massive high-throughput genomic and proteomic studies.

PubMed

Lyons-Weiler, James; Pelikan, Richard; Zeh, Herbert J; Whitcomb, David C; Malehorn, David E; Bigbee, William L; Hauskrecht, Milos

2005-01-01

Peptide profiles generated using SELDI/MALDI time of flight mass spectrometry provide a promising source of patient-specific information with high potential impact on the early detection and classification of cancer and other diseases. The new profiling technology comes, however, with numerous challenges and concerns. Particularly important are concerns of reproducibility of classification results and their significance. In this work we describe a computational validation framework, called PACE (Permutation-Achieved Classification Error), that lets us assess, for a given classification model, the significance of the Achieved Classification Error (ACE) on the profile data. The framework compares the performance statistic of the classifier on true data samples and checks if these are consistent with the behavior of the classifier on the same data with randomly reassigned class labels. A statistically significant ACE increases our belief that a discriminative signal was found in the data. The advantage of PACE analysis is that it can be easily combined with any classification model and is relatively easy to interpret. PACE analysis does not protect researchers against confounding in the experimental design, or other sources of systematic or random error. We use PACE analysis to assess significance of classification results we have achieved on a number of published data sets. The results show that many of these datasets indeed possess a signal that leads to a statistically significant ACE.

Error Sources in Asteroid Astrometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owen, William M., Jr.

2000-01-01

Asteroid astrometry, like any other scientific measurement process, is subject to both random and systematic errors, not all of which are under the observer's control. To design an astrometric observing program or to improve an existing one requires knowledge of the various sources of error, how different errors affect one's results, and how various errors may be minimized by careful observation or data reduction techniques.

Wave field synthesis, adaptive wave field synthesis and ambisonics using decentralized transformed control: Potential applications to sound field reproduction and active noise control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gauthier, Philippe-Aubert; Berry, Alain; Woszczyk, Wieslaw

2005-09-01

Sound field reproduction finds applications in listening to prerecorded music or in synthesizing virtual acoustics. The objective is to recreate a sound field in a listening environment. Wave field synthesis (WFS) is a known open-loop technology which assumes that the reproduction environment is anechoic. Classical WFS, therefore, does not perform well in a real reproduction space such as room. Previous work has suggested that it is physically possible to reproduce a progressive wave field in-room situation using active control approaches. In this paper, a formulation of adaptive wave field synthesis (AWFS) introduces practical possibilities for an adaptive sound field reproduction combining WFS and active control (with WFS departure penalization) with a limited number of error sensors. AWFS includes WFS and closed-loop ``Ambisonics'' as limiting cases. This leads to the modification of the multichannel filtered-reference least-mean-square (FXLMS) and the filtered-error LMS (FELMS) adaptive algorithms for AWFS. Decentralization of AWFS for sound field reproduction is introduced on the basis of sources' and sensors' radiation modes. Such decoupling may lead to decentralized control of source strength distributions and may reduce computational burden of the FXLMS and the FELMS algorithms used for AWFS. [Work funded by NSERC, NATEQ, Université de Sherbrooke and VRQ.] Ultrasound/Bioresponse to

The use of source memory to identify one's own episodic confusion errors.

PubMed

Smith, S M; Tindell, D R; Pierce, B H; Gilliland, T R; Gerkens, D R

2001-03-01

In 4 category cued recall experiments, participants falsely recalled nonlist common members, a semantic confusion error. Errors were more likely if critical nonlist words were presented on an incidental task, causing source memory failures called episodic confusion errors. Participants could better identify the source of falsely recalled words if they had deeply processed the words on the incidental task. For deep but not shallow processing, participants could reliably include or exclude incidentally shown category members in recall. The illusion that critical items actually appeared on categorized lists was diminished but not eradicated when participants identified episodic confusion errors post hoc among their own recalled responses; participants often believed that critical items had been on both the incidental task and the study list. Improved source monitoring can potentially mitigate episodic (but not semantic) confusion errors.

WE-G-BRA-04: Common Errors and Deficiencies in Radiation Oncology Practice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kry, S; Dromgoole, L; Alvarez, P

Purpose: Dosimetric errors in radiotherapy dose delivery lead to suboptimal treatments and outcomes. This work reviews the frequency and severity of dosimetric and programmatic errors identified by on-site audits performed by the IROC Houston QA center. Methods: IROC Houston on-site audits evaluate absolute beam calibration, relative dosimetry data compared to the treatment planning system data, and processes such as machine QA. Audits conducted from 2000-present were abstracted for recommendations, including type of recommendation and magnitude of error when applicable. Dosimetric recommendations corresponded to absolute dose errors >3% and relative dosimetry errors >2%. On-site audits of 1020 accelerators at 409 institutionsmore » were reviewed. Results: A total of 1280 recommendations were made (average 3.1/institution). The most common recommendation was for inadequate QA procedures per TG-40 and/or TG-142 (82% of institutions) with the most commonly noted deficiency being x-ray and electron off-axis constancy versus gantry angle. Dosimetrically, the most common errors in relative dosimetry were in small-field output factors (59% of institutions), wedge factors (33% of institutions), off-axis factors (21% of institutions), and photon PDD (18% of institutions). Errors in calibration were also problematic: 20% of institutions had an error in electron beam calibration, 8% had an error in photon beam calibration, and 7% had an error in brachytherapy source calibration. Almost all types of data reviewed included errors up to 7% although 20 institutions had errors in excess of 10%, and 5 had errors in excess of 20%. The frequency of electron calibration errors decreased significantly with time, but all other errors show non-significant changes. Conclusion: There are many common and often serious errors made during the establishment and maintenance of a radiotherapy program that can be identified through independent peer review. Physicists should be cautious, particularly in areas highlighted herein that show a tendency for errors.« less

Analysis of dead zone sources in a closed-loop fiber optic gyroscope.

PubMed

Chong, Kyoung-Ho; Choi, Woo-Seok; Chong, Kil-To

2016-01-01

Analysis of the dead zone is among the intensive studies in a closed-loop fiber optic gyroscope. In a dead zone, a gyroscope cannot detect any rotation and produces a zero bias. In this study, an analysis of dead zone sources is performed in simulation and experiments. In general, the problem is mainly due to electrical cross coupling and phase modulation drift. Electrical cross coupling is caused by interference between modulation voltage and the photodetector. The cross-coupled signal produces spurious gyro bias and leads to a dead zone if it is larger than the input rate. Phase modulation drift as another dead zone source is due to the electrode contamination, the piezoelectric effect of the LiNbO3 substrate, or to organic fouling. This modulation drift lasts for a short or long period of time like a lead-lag filter response and produces gyro bias error, noise spikes, or dead zone. For a more detailed analysis, the cross-coupling effect and modulation phase drift are modeled as a filter and are simulated in both the open-loop and closed-loop modes. The sources of dead zone are more clearly analyzed in the simulation and experimental results.

Effects of measurement errors on psychometric measurements in ergonomics studies: Implications for correlations, ANOVA, linear regression, factor analysis, and linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Salvendy, Gavriel

2009-05-01

This paper aims to demonstrate the effects of measurement errors on psychometric measurements in ergonomics studies. A variety of sources can cause random measurement errors in ergonomics studies and these errors can distort virtually every statistic computed and lead investigators to erroneous conclusions. The effects of measurement errors on five most widely used statistical analysis tools have been discussed and illustrated: correlation; ANOVA; linear regression; factor analysis; linear discriminant analysis. It has been shown that measurement errors can greatly attenuate correlations between variables, reduce statistical power of ANOVA, distort (overestimate, underestimate or even change the sign of) regression coefficients, underrate the explanation contributions of the most important factors in factor analysis and depreciate the significance of discriminant function and discrimination abilities of individual variables in discrimination analysis. The discussions will be restricted to subjective scales and survey methods and their reliability estimates. Other methods applied in ergonomics research, such as physical and electrophysiological measurements and chemical and biomedical analysis methods, also have issues of measurement errors, but they are beyond the scope of this paper. As there has been increasing interest in the development and testing of theories in ergonomics research, it has become very important for ergonomics researchers to understand the effects of measurement errors on their experiment results, which the authors believe is very critical to research progress in theory development and cumulative knowledge in the ergonomics field.

Dissociating response conflict and error likelihood in anterior cingulate cortex.

PubMed

Yeung, Nick; Nieuwenhuis, Sander

2009-11-18

Neuroimaging studies consistently report activity in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in conditions of high cognitive demand, leading to the view that ACC plays a crucial role in the control of cognitive processes. According to one prominent theory, the sensitivity of ACC to task difficulty reflects its role in monitoring for the occurrence of competition, or "conflict," between responses to signal the need for increased cognitive control. However, a contrasting theory proposes that ACC is the recipient rather than source of monitoring signals, and that ACC activity observed in relation to task demand reflects the role of this region in learning about the likelihood of errors. Response conflict and error likelihood are typically confounded, making the theories difficult to distinguish empirically. The present research therefore used detailed computational simulations to derive contrasting predictions regarding ACC activity and error rate as a function of response speed. The simulations demonstrated a clear dissociation between conflict and error likelihood: fast response trials are associated with low conflict but high error likelihood, whereas slow response trials show the opposite pattern. Using the N2 component as an index of ACC activity, an EEG study demonstrated that when conflict and error likelihood are dissociated in this way, ACC activity tracks conflict and is negatively correlated with error likelihood. These findings support the conflict-monitoring theory and suggest that, in speeded decision tasks, ACC activity reflects current task demands rather than the retrospective coding of past performance.

Limitations of Dower's inverse transform for the study of atrial loops during atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Guillem, María S; Climent, Andreu M; Bollmann, Andreas; Husser, Daniela; Millet, José; Castells, Francisco

2009-08-01

Spatial characteristics of atrial fibrillatory waves have been extracted by using a vectorcardiogram (VCG) during atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the VCG is usually not recorded in clinical practice and atrial loops are derived from the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). We evaluated the suitability of the reconstruction of orthogonal leads from the 12-lead ECG for fibrillatory waves in AF. We used the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt diagnostic ECG database, which contains 15 simultaneously recorded signals (12-lead ECG and three Frank orthogonal leads) of 13 patients during AF. Frank leads were derived from the 12-lead ECG by using Dower's inverse transform. Derived leads were then compared to true Frank leads in terms of the relative error achieved. We calculated the orientation of AF loops of both recorded orthogonal leads and derived leads and measured the difference in estimated orientation. Also, we investigated the relationship of errors in derivation with fibrillatory wave amplitude, frequency, wave residuum, and fit to a plane of the AF loops. Errors in derivation of AF loops were 68 +/- 31% and errors in the estimation of orientation were 35.85 +/- 20.43 degrees . We did not find any correlation among these errors and amplitude, frequency, or other parameters. In conclusion, Dower's inverse transform should not be used for the derivation of orthogonal leads from the 12-lead ECG for the analysis of fibrillatory wave loops in AF. Spatial parameters obtained after this derivation may differ from those obtained from recorded orthogonal leads.

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W. J.; Solokiewicz, R. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.; Christian, H. J.; Hall, J. M.; Bailey, J. C.; Krider, E. P.; Bateman, M. G.; Boccippio, D. J.

2003-01-01

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Understanding EFL Students' Errors in Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phuket, Pimpisa Rattanadilok Na; Othman, Normah Binti

2015-01-01

Writing is the most difficult skill in English, so most EFL students tend to make errors in writing. In assisting the learners to successfully acquire writing skill, the analysis of errors and the understanding of their sources are necessary. This study attempts to explore the major sources of errors occurred in the writing of EFL students. It…

Target/error overlap in jargonaphasia: The case for a one-source model, lexical and non-lexical summation, and the special status of correct responses.

PubMed

Olson, Andrew; Halloran, Elizabeth; Romani, Cristina

2015-12-01

We present three jargonaphasic patients who made phonological errors in naming, repetition and reading. We analyse target/response overlap using statistical models to answer three questions: 1) Is there a single phonological source for errors or two sources, one for target-related errors and a separate source for abstruse errors? 2) Can correct responses be predicted by the same distribution used to predict errors or do they show a completion boost (CB)? 3) Is non-lexical and lexical information summed during reading and repetition? The answers were clear. 1) Abstruse errors did not require a separate distribution created by failure to access word forms. Abstruse and target-related errors were the endpoints of a single overlap distribution. 2) Correct responses required a special factor, e.g., a CB or lexical/phonological feedback, to preserve their integrity. 3) Reading and repetition required separate lexical and non-lexical contributions that were combined at output. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution with source state errors and statistical fluctuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Yu, Zong-Wen; Wang, Xiang-Bin

2017-03-01

We show how to calculate the secure final key rate in the four-intensity decoy-state measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution protocol with both source errors and statistical fluctuations with a certain failure probability. Our results rely only on the range of only a few parameters in the source state. All imperfections in this protocol have been taken into consideration without assuming any specific error patterns of the source.

Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

PubMed

Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-07-20

This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

Acoustic holography as a metrological tool for characterizing medical ultrasound sources and fields

PubMed Central

Sapozhnikov, Oleg A.; Tsysar, Sergey A.; Khokhlova, Vera A.; Kreider, Wayne

2015-01-01

Acoustic holography is a powerful technique for characterizing ultrasound sources and the fields they radiate, with the ability to quantify source vibrations and reduce the number of required measurements. These capabilities are increasingly appealing for meeting measurement standards in medical ultrasound; however, associated uncertainties have not been investigated systematically. Here errors associated with holographic representations of a linear, continuous-wave ultrasound field are studied. To facilitate the analysis, error metrics are defined explicitly, and a detailed description of a holography formulation based on the Rayleigh integral is provided. Errors are evaluated both for simulations of a typical therapeutic ultrasound source and for physical experiments with three different ultrasound sources. Simulated experiments explore sampling errors introduced by the use of a finite number of measurements, geometric uncertainties in the actual positions of acquired measurements, and uncertainties in the properties of the propagation medium. Results demonstrate the theoretical feasibility of keeping errors less than about 1%. Typical errors in physical experiments were somewhat larger, on the order of a few percent; comparison with simulations provides specific guidelines for improving the experimental implementation to reduce these errors. Overall, results suggest that holography can be implemented successfully as a metrological tool with small, quantifiable errors. PMID:26428789

Common but unappreciated sources of error in one, two, and multiple-color pyrometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spjut, R. Erik

1988-01-01

The most common sources of error in optical pyrometry are examined. They can be classified as either noise and uncertainty errors, stray radiation errors, or speed-of-response errors. Through judicious choice of detectors and optical wavelengths the effect of noise errors can be minimized, but one should strive to determine as many of the system properties as possible. Careful consideration of the optical-collection system can minimize stray radiation errors. Careful consideration must also be given to the slowest elements in a pyrometer when measuring rapid phenomena.

ChromatoGate: A Tool for Detecting Base Mis-Calls in Multiple Sequence Alignments by Semi-Automatic Chromatogram Inspection

PubMed Central

Alachiotis, Nikolaos; Vogiatzi, Emmanouella; Pavlidis, Pavlos; Stamatakis, Alexandros

2013-01-01

Automated DNA sequencers generate chromatograms that contain raw sequencing data. They also generate data that translates the chromatograms into molecular sequences of A, C, G, T, or N (undetermined) characters. Since chromatogram translation programs frequently introduce errors, a manual inspection of the generated sequence data is required. As sequence numbers and lengths increase, visual inspection and manual correction of chromatograms and corresponding sequences on a per-peak and per-nucleotide basis becomes an error-prone, time-consuming, and tedious process. Here, we introduce ChromatoGate (CG), an open-source software that accelerates and partially automates the inspection of chromatograms and the detection of sequencing errors for bidirectional sequencing runs. To provide users full control over the error correction process, a fully automated error correction algorithm has not been implemented. Initially, the program scans a given multiple sequence alignment (MSA) for potential sequencing errors, assuming that each polymorphic site in the alignment may be attributed to a sequencing error with a certain probability. The guided MSA assembly procedure in ChromatoGate detects chromatogram peaks of all characters in an alignment that lead to polymorphic sites, given a user-defined threshold. The threshold value represents the sensitivity of the sequencing error detection mechanism. After this pre-filtering, the user only needs to inspect a small number of peaks in every chromatogram to correct sequencing errors. Finally, we show that correcting sequencing errors is important, because population genetic and phylogenetic inferences can be misled by MSAs with uncorrected mis-calls. Our experiments indicate that estimates of population mutation rates can be affected two- to three-fold by uncorrected errors. PMID:24688709

ChromatoGate: A Tool for Detecting Base Mis-Calls in Multiple Sequence Alignments by Semi-Automatic Chromatogram Inspection.

PubMed

Alachiotis, Nikolaos; Vogiatzi, Emmanouella; Pavlidis, Pavlos; Stamatakis, Alexandros

2013-01-01

Automated DNA sequencers generate chromatograms that contain raw sequencing data. They also generate data that translates the chromatograms into molecular sequences of A, C, G, T, or N (undetermined) characters. Since chromatogram translation programs frequently introduce errors, a manual inspection of the generated sequence data is required. As sequence numbers and lengths increase, visual inspection and manual correction of chromatograms and corresponding sequences on a per-peak and per-nucleotide basis becomes an error-prone, time-consuming, and tedious process. Here, we introduce ChromatoGate (CG), an open-source software that accelerates and partially automates the inspection of chromatograms and the detection of sequencing errors for bidirectional sequencing runs. To provide users full control over the error correction process, a fully automated error correction algorithm has not been implemented. Initially, the program scans a given multiple sequence alignment (MSA) for potential sequencing errors, assuming that each polymorphic site in the alignment may be attributed to a sequencing error with a certain probability. The guided MSA assembly procedure in ChromatoGate detects chromatogram peaks of all characters in an alignment that lead to polymorphic sites, given a user-defined threshold. The threshold value represents the sensitivity of the sequencing error detection mechanism. After this pre-filtering, the user only needs to inspect a small number of peaks in every chromatogram to correct sequencing errors. Finally, we show that correcting sequencing errors is important, because population genetic and phylogenetic inferences can be misled by MSAs with uncorrected mis-calls. Our experiments indicate that estimates of population mutation rates can be affected two- to three-fold by uncorrected errors.

The computation of equating errors in international surveys in education.

PubMed

Monseur, Christian; Berezner, Alla

2007-01-01

Since the IEA's Third International Mathematics and Science Study, one of the major objectives of international surveys in education has been to report trends in achievement. The names of the two current IEA surveys reflect this growing interest: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS). Similarly a central concern of the OECD's PISA is with trends in outcomes over time. To facilitate trend analyses these studies link their tests using common item equating in conjunction with item response modelling methods. IEA and PISA policies differ in terms of reporting the error associated with trends. In IEA surveys, the standard errors of the trend estimates do not include the uncertainty associated with the linking step while PISA does include a linking error component in the standard errors of trend estimates. In other words, PISA implicitly acknowledges that trend estimates partly depend on the selected common items, while the IEA's surveys do not recognise this source of error. Failing to recognise the linking error leads to an underestimation of the standard errors and thus increases the Type I error rate, thereby resulting in reporting of significant changes in achievement when in fact these are not significant. The growing interest of policy makers in trend indicators and the impact of the evaluation of educational reforms appear to be incompatible with such underestimation. However, the procedure implemented by PISA raises a few issues about the underlying assumptions for the computation of the equating error. After a brief introduction, this paper will describe the procedure PISA implemented to compute the linking error. The underlying assumptions of this procedure will then be discussed. Finally an alternative method based on replication techniques will be presented, based on a simulation study and then applied to the PISA 2000 data.

The Impact of Aerosol Sources and Aging on CCN Formation in the Houston-Galveston-Gulf of Mexico Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, P.; Bates, T.; Coffman, D.; Covert, D.

2007-12-01

The impact of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud properties, cloud lifetime, and precipitation processes is one of the largest uncertainties in our current understanding of climate change. Aerosols affect cloud properties by serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) thereby leading to the formation of cloud droplets. The process of cloud drop activation is a function of both the size and chemistry of the aerosol particles which, in turn, depend on the source of the aerosol and transformations that occur downwind. In situ field measurements that can lead to an improved understanding of the process of cloud drop formation and simplifying parameterizations for improving the accuracy of climate models are highly desirable. During the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (GoMACCS), the NOAA RV Ronald H. Brown encountered a wide variety of aerosol types ranging from marine near the Florida panhandle to urban and industrial in the Houston-Galveston area. These varied sources provided an opportunity to investigate the role of aerosol sources, aging, chemistry, and size in the activation of particles to form cloud droplets. Here, we use the correlation between variability in critical diameter for activation (determined empirically from measured CCN concentrations and the number size distribution) and aerosol composition to quantify the impact of composition on particle activation. Variability in aerosol composition is parameterized by the mass fraction of Hydrocarbon-like Organic Aerosol (HOA) for particle diameters less than 200 nm (vacuum aerodynamic). The HOA mass fraction in this size range is lowest for marine aerosol and higher for aerosol impacted by anthropogenic emissions. Combining all data collected at 0.44 percent supersaturation (SS) reveals that composition (defined in this way) explains 40 percent of the variance in the critical diameter. As expected, the dependence of activation on composition is strongest at lower SS. At the same time, correlations between HOA mass fraction and aerosol mean diameter show that these two parameters are essentially independent of one another for this data set. We conclude that, based on the variability of the HOA mass fraction observed during GoMACCS, composition plays a dominant role in determining the fraction of particles that are activated to form cloud droplets. Using Kohler theory, we estimate the error that results in calculated CCN concentrations if the organic fraction of the aerosol is neglected (i.e., a fully soluble composition of ammonium sulfate is assumed) for the range of organic mass fractions and mean diameters observed during GoMACCS. We then relate this error to the source and age of the aerosol. At 0.22 and 0.44 percent SS, the error is considerable for anthropogenic aerosol sampled near the source region as this aerosol has, on average, a high POM mass fraction and smaller particle mean diameter. The error is lower for more aged aerosol as it has a lower POM mass fraction and larger mean particle diameter. Hence, the percent error in calculated CCN concentration is expected to be larger for younger, organic- rich aerosol and smaller for aged, sulfate rich aerosol and for marine aerosol. We extend this analysis to continental and marine data sets recently reported by Dusek et al. [Science, 312, 1375, 2006] and Hudson [Geophys. Res., Lett., 34, L08801, 2007].

Syndrome-source-coding and its universal generalization. [error correcting codes for data compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancheta, T. C., Jr.

1976-01-01

A method of using error-correcting codes to obtain data compression, called syndrome-source-coding, is described in which the source sequence is treated as an error pattern whose syndrome forms the compressed data. It is shown that syndrome-source-coding can achieve arbitrarily small distortion with the number of compressed digits per source digit arbitrarily close to the entropy of a binary memoryless source. A 'universal' generalization of syndrome-source-coding is formulated which provides robustly effective distortionless coding of source ensembles. Two examples are given, comparing the performance of noiseless universal syndrome-source-coding to (1) run-length coding and (2) Lynch-Davisson-Schalkwijk-Cover universal coding for an ensemble of binary memoryless sources.

A Comprehensive Radial Velocity Error Budget for Next Generation Doppler Spectrometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halverson, Samuel; Ryan, Terrien; Mahadevan, Suvrath; Roy, Arpita; Bender, Chad; Stefansson, Guomundur Kari; Monson, Andrew; Levi, Eric; Hearty, Fred; Blake, Cullen;

A Bayesian approach to model structural error and input variability in groundwater modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, T.; Valocchi, A. J.; Lin, Y. F. F.; Liang, F.

2015-12-01

Effective water resource management typically relies on numerical models to analyze groundwater flow and solute transport processes. Model structural error (due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of the "true" environmental system) and input forcing variability (which commonly arises since some inputs are uncontrolled or estimated with high uncertainty) are ubiquitous in groundwater models. Calibration that overlooks errors in model structure and input data can lead to biased parameter estimates and compromised predictions. We present a fully Bayesian approach for a complete assessment of uncertainty for spatially distributed groundwater models. The approach explicitly recognizes stochastic input and uses data-driven error models based on nonparametric kernel methods to account for model structural error. We employ exploratory data analysis to assist in specifying informative prior for error models to improve identifiability. The inference is facilitated by an efficient sampling algorithm based on DREAM-ZS and a parameter subspace multiple-try strategy to reduce the required number of forward simulations of the groundwater model. We demonstrate the Bayesian approach through a synthetic case study of surface-ground water interaction under changing pumping conditions. It is found that explicit treatment of errors in model structure and input data (groundwater pumping rate) has substantial impact on the posterior distribution of groundwater model parameters. Using error models reduces predictive bias caused by parameter compensation. In addition, input variability increases parametric and predictive uncertainty. The Bayesian approach allows for a comparison among the contributions from various error sources, which could inform future model improvement and data collection efforts on how to best direct resources towards reducing predictive uncertainty.

Error analysis and algorithm implementation for an improved optical-electric tracking device based on MEMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hong; Wu, Qian-zhong

2013-09-01

In order to improve the precision of optical-electric tracking device, proposing a kind of improved optical-electric tracking device based on MEMS, in allusion to the tracking error of gyroscope senor and the random drift, According to the principles of time series analysis of random sequence, establish AR model of gyro random error based on Kalman filter algorithm, then the output signals of gyro are multiple filtered with Kalman filter. And use ARM as micro controller servo motor is controlled by fuzzy PID full closed loop control algorithm, and add advanced correction and feed-forward links to improve response lag of angle input, Free-forward can make output perfectly follow input. The function of lead compensation link is to shorten the response of input signals, so as to reduce errors. Use the wireless video monitor module and remote monitoring software (Visual Basic 6.0) to monitor servo motor state in real time, the video monitor module gathers video signals, and the wireless video module will sent these signals to upper computer, so that show the motor running state in the window of Visual Basic 6.0. At the same time, take a detailed analysis to the main error source. Through the quantitative analysis of the errors from bandwidth and gyro sensor, it makes the proportion of each error in the whole error more intuitive, consequently, decrease the error of the system. Through the simulation and experiment results shows the system has good following characteristic, and it is very valuable for engineering application.

Precise calibration of spatial phase response nonuniformity arising in liquid crystal on silicon.

PubMed

Xu, Jingquan; Qin, SiYi; Liu, Chen; Fu, Songnian; Liu, Deming

2018-06-15

In order to calibrate the spatial phase response nonuniformity of liquid crystal on silicon (LCoS), we propose to use a Twyman-Green interferometer to characterize the wavefront distortion, due to the inherent curvature of the device. During the characterization, both the residual carrier frequency introduced by the Fourier transform evaluation method and the lens aberration are error sources. For the tilted phase error introduced by residual carrier frequency, the least mean square fitting method is used to obtain the tilted phase error. Meanwhile, we use Zernike polynomials fitting based on plane mirror calibration to mitigate the lens aberration. For a typical LCoS with 1×12,288 pixels after calibration, the peak-to-valley value of the inherent wavefront distortion is approximately 0.25λ at 1550 nm, leading to a half-suppression of wavefront distortion. All efforts can suppress the root mean squares value of the inherent wavefront distortion to approximately λ/34.

Identification errors in the blood transfusion laboratory: a still relevant issue for patient safety.

PubMed

Lippi, Giuseppe; Plebani, Mario

2011-04-01

Remarkable technological advances and increased awareness have both contributed to decrease substantially the uncertainty of the analytical phase, so that the manually intensive preanalytical activities currently represent the leading sources of errors in laboratory and transfusion medicine. Among preanalytical errors, misidentification and mistransfusion are still regarded as a considerable problem, posing serious risks for patient health and carrying huge expenses for the healthcare system. As such, a reliable policy of risk management should be readily implemented, developing through a multifaceted approach to prevent or limit the adverse outcomes related to transfusion reactions from blood incompatibility. This strategy encompasses root cause analysis, compliance with accreditation requirements, strict adherence to standard operating procedures, guidelines and recommendations for specimen collection, use of positive identification devices, rejection of potentially misidentified specimens, informatics data entry, query host communication, automated systems for patient identification and sample labeling and an adequate and safe environment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The perils of the imperfect expectation of the perfect baby.

PubMed

Chervenak, Frank A; McCullough, Laurence B; Brent, Robert L

2010-08-01

Advances in modern medicine invite the assumption that medicine can control human biology. There is a perilous logic that leads from expectations of medicine's control over reproductive biology to the expectation of having a perfect baby. This article proposes that obstetricians should take a preventive ethics approach to the care of pregnant women with expectations for a perfect baby. We use Nathaniel Hawthorne's classic short story, "The Birthmark," to illustrate the perils of the logic of control and perfection through science and then identify possible contemporary sources of the expectation of the perfect baby. We propose that the informed consent process should be used as a preventive ethics tool throughout the course of pregnancy to educate pregnant women about the inherent errors of human reproduction, the highly variable clinical outcomes of these errors, the limited capacity of medicine to detect these errors, and the even more limited capacity to correct them. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Accuracy of Webcams in 2D Motion Analysis: Sources of Error and Their Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Page, A.; Moreno, R.; Candelas, P.; Belmar, F.

2008-01-01

In this paper, we show the potential of webcams as precision measuring instruments in a physics laboratory. Various sources of error appearing in 2D coordinate measurements using low-cost commercial webcams are discussed, quantifying their impact on accuracy and precision, and simple procedures to control these sources of error are presented.…

Detection Performance of Upgraded "Polished Panel" Optical Receiver Concept on the Deep-Space Network's 34 Meter Research Antenna

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilnrotter, Victor A.

2012-01-01

Initial optical communications experiments with a Vertex polished aluminum panel have been described. The polished panel was mounted on the main reflector of the DSN's research antenna at DSS-13. The PSF was recorded via remotely controlled digital camera mounted on the subreflector structure. Initial PSF generated by Jupiter showed significant tilt error and some mechanical deformation. After upgrades, the PSF improved significantly, leading to much better concentration of light. Communications performance of the initial and upgraded panel structure were compared. After the upgrades, simulated PPM symbol error probability decreased by six orders of magnitude. Work is continuing to demonstrate closed-loop tracking of sources from zenith to horizon, and better characterize communications performance in realistic daytime background environments.

An improved procedure for determining grain boundary diffusion coefficients from averaged concentration profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryaznov, D.; Fleig, J.; Maier, J.

2008-03-01

Whipple's solution of the problem of grain boundary diffusion and Le Claire's relation, which is often used to determine grain boundary diffusion coefficients, are examined for a broad range of ratios of grain boundary to bulk diffusivities Δ and diffusion times t. Different reasons leading to errors in determining the grain boundary diffusivity (DGB) when using Le Claire's relation are discussed. It is shown that nonlinearities of the diffusion profiles in lnCav-y6/5 plots and deviations from "Le Claire's constant" (-0.78) are the major error sources (Cav=averaged concentration, y =coordinate in diffusion direction). An improved relation (replacing Le Claire's constant) is suggested for analyzing diffusion profiles particularly suited for small diffusion lengths (short times) as often required in diffusion experiments on nanocrystalline materials.

Optimal secondary source position in exterior spherical acoustical holophony

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqual, A. M.; Martin, V.

2012-02-01

Exterior spherical acoustical holophony is a branch of spatial audio reproduction that deals with the rendering of a given free-field radiation pattern (the primary field) by using a compact spherical loudspeaker array (the secondary source). More precisely, the primary field is known on a spherical surface surrounding the primary and secondary sources and, since the acoustic fields are described in spherical coordinates, they are naturally subjected to spherical harmonic analysis. Besides, the inverse problem of deriving optimal driving signals from a known primary field is ill-posed because the secondary source cannot radiate high-order spherical harmonics efficiently, especially in the low-frequency range. As a consequence, a standard least-squares solution will overload the transducers if the primary field contains such harmonics. Here, this is avoided by discarding the strongly decaying spherical waves, which are identified through inspection of the radiation efficiency curves of the secondary source. However, such an unavoidable regularization procedure increases the least-squares error, which also depends on the position of the secondary source. This paper deals with the above-mentioned questions in the context of far-field directivity reproduction at low and medium frequencies. In particular, an optimal secondary source position is sought, which leads to the lowest reproduction error in the least-squares sense without overloading the transducers. In order to address this issue, a regularization quality factor is introduced to evaluate the amount of regularization required. It is shown that the optimal position improves significantly the holophonic reconstruction and maximizes the regularization quality factor (minimizes the amount of regularization), which is the main general contribution of this paper. Therefore, this factor can also be used as a cost function to obtain the optimal secondary source position.

Direct comparison of phase-sensitive vibrational sum frequency generation with maximum entropy method: case study of water.

PubMed

de Beer, Alex G F; Samson, Jean-Sebastièn; Hua, Wei; Huang, Zishuai; Chen, Xiangke; Allen, Heather C; Roke, Sylvie

2011-12-14

We present a direct comparison of phase sensitive sum-frequency generation experiments with phase reconstruction obtained by the maximum entropy method. We show that both methods lead to the same complex spectrum. Furthermore, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each of these methods, analyzing possible sources of experimental and analytical errors. A simulation program for maximum entropy phase reconstruction is available at: http://lbp.epfl.ch/. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

Robust video transmission with distributed source coded auxiliary channel.

PubMed

Wang, Jiajun; Majumdar, Abhik; Ramchandran, Kannan

2009-12-01

We propose a novel solution to the problem of robust, low-latency video transmission over lossy channels. Predictive video codecs, such as MPEG and H.26x, are very susceptible to prediction mismatch between encoder and decoder or "drift" when there are packet losses. These mismatches lead to a significant degradation in the decoded quality. To address this problem, we propose an auxiliary codec system that sends additional information alongside an MPEG or H.26x compressed video stream to correct for errors in decoded frames and mitigate drift. The proposed system is based on the principles of distributed source coding and uses the (possibly erroneous) MPEG/H.26x decoder reconstruction as side information at the auxiliary decoder. The distributed source coding framework depends upon knowing the statistical dependency (or correlation) between the source and the side information. We propose a recursive algorithm to analytically track the correlation between the original source frame and the erroneous MPEG/H.26x decoded frame. Finally, we propose a rate-distortion optimization scheme to allocate the rate used by the auxiliary encoder among the encoding blocks within a video frame. We implement the proposed system and present extensive simulation results that demonstrate significant gains in performance both visually and objectively (on the order of 2 dB in PSNR over forward error correction based solutions and 1.5 dB in PSNR over intrarefresh based solutions for typical scenarios) under tight latency constraints.

Calculating the sensitivity and robustness of binding free energy calculations to force field parameters

PubMed Central

Rocklin, Gabriel J.; Mobley, David L.; Dill, Ken A.

2013-01-01

Binding free energy calculations offer a thermodynamically rigorous method to compute protein-ligand binding, and they depend on empirical force fields with hundreds of parameters. We examined the sensitivity of computed binding free energies to the ligand’s electrostatic and van der Waals parameters. Dielectric screening and cancellation of effects between ligand-protein and ligand-solvent interactions reduce the parameter sensitivity of binding affinity by 65%, compared with interaction strengths computed in the gas-phase. However, multiple changes to parameters combine additively on average, which can lead to large changes in overall affinity from many small changes to parameters. Using these results, we estimate that random, uncorrelated errors in force field nonbonded parameters must be smaller than 0.02 e per charge, 0.06 Å per radius, and 0.01 kcal/mol per well depth in order to obtain 68% (one standard deviation) confidence that a computed affinity for a moderately-sized lead compound will fall within 1 kcal/mol of the true affinity, if these are the only sources of error considered. PMID:24015114

Prediction of discretization error using the error transport equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celik, Ismail B.; Parsons, Don Roscoe

2017-06-01

This study focuses on an approach to quantify the discretization error associated with numerical solutions of partial differential equations by solving an error transport equation (ETE). The goal is to develop a method that can be used to adequately predict the discretization error using the numerical solution on only one grid/mesh. The primary problem associated with solving the ETE is the formulation of the error source term which is required for accurately predicting the transport of the error. In this study, a novel approach is considered which involves fitting the numerical solution with a series of locally smooth curves and then blending them together with a weighted spline approach. The result is a continuously differentiable analytic expression that can be used to determine the error source term. Once the source term has been developed, the ETE can easily be solved using the same solver that is used to obtain the original numerical solution. The new methodology is applied to the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in the laminar flow regime. A simple unsteady flow case is also considered. The discretization error predictions based on the methodology presented in this study are in good agreement with the 'true error'. While in most cases the error predictions are not quite as accurate as those from Richardson extrapolation, the results are reasonable and only require one numerical grid. The current results indicate that there is much promise going forward with the newly developed error source term evaluation technique and the ETE.

ALDF Data Retrieval Algorithms for Validating the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Bailey, J. C.

1997-01-01

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from in Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing, and arrival time of lightning radio emissions and solutions for the plane (i.e.. no Earth curvature) are provided that implement all of these measurements. The accuracy of the retrieval method is tested using computer-simulated data sets and the relative influence of bearing and arrival time data on the outcome of the final solution is formally demonstrated. The algorithm is sufficiently accurate to validate NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging System (LIS). We also introduce a quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in source location. Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. For arbitrary noncollinear network geometries and in the absence of measurement errors, it is shown that the two quadratic roots are equivalent (no source location ambiguity) on the outer sensor baselines. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer-generated data sets and the results are generally better than those obtained from the three station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 degrees.

Practical tool to assess reliability of web-based medicines information.

PubMed

Lebanova, Hristina; Getov, Ilko; Grigorov, Evgeni

2014-02-01

Information disseminated by medicines information systems is not always easy to apply. Nowadays internet provides access to enormous volume and range of health information that was previously inaccessible both for medical specialists and consumers. The aim of this study is to assess internet as a source of drug and health related information and to create test methodology to evaluate the top 10 visited health-related web-sites in Bulgaria. Using existing scientific methodologies for evaluation of web sources, a new algorithm of three-step approach consisting of score-card validation of the drug-related information in the 10 most visited Bulgarian web-sites was created. In many cases the drug information in the internet sites contained errors and discrepancies. Some of the published materials were not validated; they were out-of-date and could cause confusion for consumers. The quality of the online health information is a cause for considerable information noise and threat to patients' safety and rational drug use. There is a need of monitoring the drugs information available online in order to prevent patient misinformation and confusion that could lead to medication errors and abuse.

Field evaluation of the error arising from inadequate time averaging in the standard use of depth-integrating suspended-sediment samplers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Wright, Scott A.; Melis, Theodore S.

2011-01-01

Several common methods for measuring suspended-sediment concentration in rivers in the United States use depth-integrating samplers to collect a velocity-weighted suspended-sediment sample in a subsample of a river cross section. Because depth-integrating samplers are always moving through the water column as they collect a sample, and can collect only a limited volume of water and suspended sediment, they collect only minimally time-averaged data. Four sources of error exist in the field use of these samplers: (1) bed contamination, (2) pressure-driven inrush, (3) inadequate sampling of the cross-stream spatial structure in suspended-sediment concentration, and (4) inadequate time averaging. The first two of these errors arise from misuse of suspended-sediment samplers, and the third has been the subject of previous study using data collected in the sand-bedded Middle Loup River in Nebraska. Of these four sources of error, the least understood source of error arises from the fact that depth-integrating samplers collect only minimally time-averaged data. To evaluate this fourth source of error, we collected suspended-sediment data between 1995 and 2007 at four sites on the Colorado River in Utah and Arizona, using a P-61 suspended-sediment sampler deployed in both point- and one-way depth-integrating modes, and D-96-A1 and D-77 bag-type depth-integrating suspended-sediment samplers. These data indicate that the minimal duration of time averaging during standard field operation of depth-integrating samplers leads to an error that is comparable in magnitude to that arising from inadequate sampling of the cross-stream spatial structure in suspended-sediment concentration. This random error arising from inadequate time averaging is positively correlated with grain size and does not largely depend on flow conditions or, for a given size class of suspended sediment, on elevation above the bed. Averaging over time scales >1 minute is the likely minimum duration required to result in substantial decreases in this error. During standard two-way depth integration, a depth-integrating suspended-sediment sampler collects a sample of the water-sediment mixture during two transits at each vertical in a cross section: one transit while moving from the water surface to the bed, and another transit while moving from the bed to the water surface. As the number of transits is doubled at an individual vertical, this error is reduced by ~30 percent in each size class of suspended sediment. For a given size class of suspended sediment, the error arising from inadequate sampling of the cross-stream spatial structure in suspended-sediment concentration depends only on the number of verticals collected, whereas the error arising from inadequate time averaging depends on both the number of verticals collected and the number of transits collected at each vertical. Summing these two errors in quadrature yields a total uncertainty in an equal-discharge-increment (EDI) or equal-width-increment (EWI) measurement of the time-averaged velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration in a river cross section (exclusive of any laboratory-processing errors). By virtue of how the number of verticals and transits influences the two individual errors within this total uncertainty, the error arising from inadequate time averaging slightly dominates that arising from inadequate sampling of the cross-stream spatial structure in suspended-sediment concentration. Adding verticals to an EDI or EWI measurement is slightly more effective in reducing the total uncertainty than adding transits only at each vertical, because a new vertical contributes both temporal and spatial information. However, because collection of depth-integrated samples at more transits at each vertical is generally easier and faster than at more verticals, addition of a combination of verticals and transits is likely a more practical approach to reducing the total uncertainty in most field situatio

Demand Forecasting: An Evaluation of DODs Accuracy Metric and Navys Procedures

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

inventory management improvement plan, mean of absolute scaled error, lead time adjusted squared error, forecast accuracy, benchmarking, naïve method...Manager JASA Journal of the American Statistical Association LASE Lead-time Adjusted Squared Error LCI Life Cycle Indicator MA Moving Average MAE...Mean Squared Error xvi NAVSUP Naval Supply Systems Command NDAA National Defense Authorization Act NIIN National Individual Identification Number

Space-Borne Laser Altimeter Geolocation Error Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Fang, J.; Ai, Y.

2018-05-01

This paper reviews the development of space-borne laser altimetry technology over the past 40 years. Taking the ICESAT satellite as an example, a rigorous space-borne laser altimeter geolocation model is studied, and an error propagation equation is derived. The influence of the main error sources, such as the platform positioning error, attitude measurement error, pointing angle measurement error and range measurement error, on the geolocation accuracy of the laser spot are analysed by simulated experiments. The reasons for the different influences on geolocation accuracy in different directions are discussed, and to satisfy the accuracy of the laser control point, a design index for each error source is put forward.

Determination of Barometric Altimeter Errors for the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Denise L.; Bunoz, Jean-Philippe; Gay, Robert

2012-01-01

The Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission is the unmanned flight test for the upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). During entry, the EFT-1 vehicle will trigger several Landing and Recovery System (LRS) events, such as parachute deployment, based on on-board altitude information. The primary altitude source is the filtered navigation solution updated with GPS measurement data. The vehicle also has three barometric altimeters that will be used to measure atmospheric pressure during entry. In the event that GPS data is not available during entry, the altitude derived from the barometric altimeter pressure will be used to trigger chute deployment for the drogues and main parachutes. Therefore it is important to understand the impact of error sources on the pressure measured by the barometric altimeters and on the altitude derived from that pressure. The error sources for the barometric altimeters are not independent, and many error sources result in bias in a specific direction. Therefore conventional error budget methods could not be applied. Instead, high fidelity Monte-Carlo simulation was performed and error bounds were determined based on the results of this analysis. Aerodynamic errors were the largest single contributor to the error budget for the barometric altimeters. The large errors drove a change to the altitude trigger setpoint for FBC jettison deploy.

Bias correction by use of errors-in-variables regression models in studies with K-X-ray fluorescence bone lead measurements.

PubMed

Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor; Téllez-Rojo, Martha M; Angeles, Gustavo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Hu, Howard

2011-01-01

In-vivo measurement of bone lead by means of K-X-ray fluorescence (KXRF) is the preferred biological marker of chronic exposure to lead. Unfortunately, considerable measurement error associated with KXRF estimations can introduce bias in estimates of the effect of bone lead when this variable is included as the exposure in a regression model. Estimates of uncertainty reported by the KXRF instrument reflect the variance of the measurement error and, although they can be used to correct the measurement error bias, they are seldom used in epidemiological statistical analyzes. Errors-in-variables regression (EIV) allows for correction of bias caused by measurement error in predictor variables, based on the knowledge of the reliability of such variables. The authors propose a way to obtain reliability coefficients for bone lead measurements from uncertainty data reported by the KXRF instrument and compare, by the use of Monte Carlo simulations, results obtained using EIV regression models vs. those obtained by the standard procedures. Results of the simulations show that Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression models provide severely biased estimates of effect, and that EIV provides nearly unbiased estimates. Although EIV effect estimates are more imprecise, their mean squared error is much smaller than that of OLS estimates. In conclusion, EIV is a better alternative than OLS to estimate the effect of bone lead when measured by KXRF. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Follow-up of negative MRI-targeted prostate biopsies: when are we missing cancer?

PubMed

Gold, Samuel A; Hale, Graham R; Bloom, Jonathan B; Smith, Clayton P; Rayn, Kareem N; Valera, Vladimir; Wood, Bradford J; Choyke, Peter L; Turkbey, Baris; Pinto, Peter A

2018-05-21

Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) has improved clinicians' ability to detect clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa). Combining or fusing these images with the real-time imaging of transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) allows urologists to better sample lesions with a targeted biopsy (Tbx) leading to the detection of greater rates of csPCa and decreased rates of low-risk PCa. In this review, we evaluate the technical aspects of the mpMRI-guided Tbx procedure to identify possible sources of error and provide clinical context to a negative Tbx. A literature search was conducted of possible reasons for false-negative TBx. This includes discussion on false-positive mpMRI findings, termed "PCa mimics," that may incorrectly suggest high likelihood of csPCa as well as errors during Tbx resulting in inexact image fusion or biopsy needle placement. Despite the strong negative predictive value associated with Tbx, concerns of missed disease often remain, especially with MR-visible lesions. This raises questions about what to do next after a negative Tbx result. Potential sources of error can arise from each step in the targeted biopsy process ranging from "PCa mimics" or technical errors during mpMRI acquisition to failure to properly register MRI and TRUS images on a fusion biopsy platform to technical or anatomic limits on needle placement accuracy. A better understanding of these potential pitfalls in the mpMRI-guided Tbx procedure will aid interpretation of a negative Tbx, identify areas for improving technical proficiency, and improve both physician understanding of negative Tbx and patient-management options.

Pediatric vision screening using binocular retinal birefringencr scanning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nassif, Deborah S.; Gramatikov, Boris; Guyton, David L.; Hunter, David G.

2003-07-01

Amblyopia, a leading cause of vision loss in childhood, is responsive to treatment if detected early in life. Risk factors for amblyopia, such as refractive error and strabismus, may be difficult to identify clinically in young children. Our laboratory has developed retinal birefringence scanning (RBS), in which a small spot of polarized light is scanned in a circle on the retina, and the returning light is measured for changes in polarization caused by the pattern of birefringent fibers that comprise the fovea. Binocular RBS (BRBS) detects the fixation of both eyes simultaneously and thus screens for strabismus, one of the risk factors of amblyopia. We have also developed a technique to automatically detect when the eye is in focus without measuring refractive error. This focus detection system utilizes a bull's eye photodetector optically conjugate to a point fixation source. Reflected light is focused back to the point source by the optical system of the eye, and if the subject focuses on the fixation source, the returning light will be focused on the detector. We have constructed a hand-held prototype combining BRBS and focus detection measurements in one quick (< 0.5 second) and accurate (theoretically detecting +/-1 of misalignment) measurement. This approach has the potential to reliably identify children at risk for amblyopia.

Minimizing driver errors: examining factors leading to failed target tracking and detection.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

Driving a motor vehicle is a common practice for many individuals. Although driving becomes : repetitive and a very habitual task, errors can occur that lead to accidents. One factor that can be a : cause for such errors is a lapse in attention or a ...

An overview of intravenous-related medication administration errors as reported to MEDMARX, a national medication error-reporting program.

PubMed

Hicks, Rodney W; Becker, Shawn C

2006-01-01

Medication errors can be harmful, especially if they involve the intravenous (IV) route of administration. A mixed-methodology study using a 5-year review of 73,769 IV-related medication errors from a national medication error reporting program indicates that between 3% and 5% of these errors were harmful. The leading type of error was omission, and the leading cause of error involved clinician performance deficit. Using content analysis, three themes-product shortage, calculation errors, and tubing interconnectivity-emerge and appear to predispose patients to harm. Nurses often participate in IV therapy, and these findings have implications for practice and patient safety. Voluntary medication error-reporting programs afford an opportunity to improve patient care and to further understanding about the nature of IV-related medication errors.

TOWARD ERROR ANALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE FOREST CARBON BUDGETS

EPA Science Inventory

Quantification of forest carbon sources and sinks is an important part of national inventories of net greenhouse gas emissions. Several such forest carbon budgets have been constructed, but little effort has been made to analyse the sources of error and how these errors propagate...

Quantifying errors without random sampling.

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V; LaPole, Luwanna M

2003-06-12

All quantifications of mortality, morbidity, and other health measures involve numerous sources of error. The routine quantification of random sampling error makes it easy to forget that other sources of error can and should be quantified. When a quantification does not involve sampling, error is almost never quantified and results are often reported in ways that dramatically overstate their precision. We argue that the precision implicit in typical reporting is problematic and sketch methods for quantifying the various sources of error, building up from simple examples that can be solved analytically to more complex cases. There are straightforward ways to partially quantify the uncertainty surrounding a parameter that is not characterized by random sampling, such as limiting reported significant figures. We present simple methods for doing such quantifications, and for incorporating them into calculations. More complicated methods become necessary when multiple sources of uncertainty must be combined. We demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulation, using available software, can estimate the uncertainty resulting from complicated calculations with many sources of uncertainty. We apply the method to the current estimate of the annual incidence of foodborne illness in the United States. Quantifying uncertainty from systematic errors is practical. Reporting this uncertainty would more honestly represent study results, help show the probability that estimated values fall within some critical range, and facilitate better targeting of further research.

Gravitational lens modelling in a citizen science context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küng, Rafael; Saha, Prasenjit; More, Anupreeta; Baeten, Elisabeth; Coles, Jonathan; Cornen, Claude; Macmillan, Christine; Marshall, Phil; More, Surhud; Odermatt, Jonas; Verma, Aprajita; Wilcox, Julianne K.

2015-03-01

We develop a method to enable collaborative modelling of gravitational lenses and lens candidates, that could be used by non-professional lens enthusiasts. It uses an existing free-form modelling program (GLASS), but enables the input to this code to be provided in a novel way, via a user-generated diagram that is essentially a sketch of an arrival-time surface. We report on an implementation of this method, SpaghettiLens, which has been tested in a modelling challenge using 29 simulated lenses drawn from a larger set created for the Space Warps citizen science strong lens search. We find that volunteers from this online community asserted the image parities and time ordering consistently in some lenses, but made errors in other lenses depending on the image morphology. While errors in image parity and time ordering lead to large errors in the mass distribution, the enclosed mass was found to be more robust: the model-derived Einstein radii found by the volunteers were consistent with those produced by one of the professional team, suggesting that given the appropriate tools, gravitational lens modelling is a data analysis activity that can be crowd-sourced to good effect. Ideas for improvement are discussed; these include (a) overcoming the tendency of the models to be shallower than the correct answer in test cases, leading to systematic overestimation of the Einstein radius by 10 per cent at present, and (b) detailed modelling of arcs.

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge observations and several years of archived forecasts, overall empirical error distributions termed 'overall error' were for each gauge derived for a range of relevant forecast lead times. b) The error distributions vary strongly with the hydrometeorological situation, therefore a subdivision into the hydrological cases 'low flow, 'rising flood', 'flood', flood recession' was introduced. c) For the sake of numerical compression, theoretical distributions were fitted to the empirical distributions using the method of moments. Here, the normal distribution was generally best suited. d) Further data compression was achieved by representing the distribution parameters as a function (second-order polynome) of lead time. In general, the 'overall error' obtained from the above procedure is most useful in regions where large human impact occurs and where the influence of the meteorological forecast is limited. In upstream regions however, forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atmosphere, which is contained in the spread of an ensemble forecast. Including this dynamically in the hydrological forecast uncertainty estimation requires prior elimination of the contribution of the weather forecast to the 'overall error'. This was achieved by calculating long series of hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The resulting error distribution is termed 'model error' and can be applied on hydrological ensemble forecasts, where ensemble rainfall forecasts are used as forcing. The concept will be illustrated by examples (good and bad ones) covering a wide range of catchment sizes, hydrometeorological regimes and quality of hydrological model calibration. The methodology to combine the static and dynamic shares of uncertainty will be presented in part II of this study.

Evaluation and testing of image quality of the Space Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jilong; Yi, Zhong; Zhou, Shuhong; Yu, Qian; Hou, Yinlong; Wang, Shanshan

2018-01-01

For the space solar extreme ultraviolet telescope, the star point test can not be performed in the x-ray band (19.5nm band) as there is not light source of bright enough. In this paper, the point spread function of the optical system is calculated to evaluate the imaging performance of the telescope system. Combined with the actual processing surface error, such as small grinding head processing and magnetorheological processing, the optical design software Zemax and data analysis software Matlab are used to directly calculate the system point spread function of the space solar extreme ultraviolet telescope. Matlab codes are programmed to generate the required surface error grid data. These surface error data is loaded to the specified surface of the telescope system by using the communication technique of DDE (Dynamic Data Exchange), which is used to connect Zemax and Matlab. As the different processing methods will lead to surface error with different size, distribution and spatial frequency, the impact of imaging is also different. Therefore, the characteristics of the surface error of different machining methods are studied. Combining with its position in the optical system and simulation its influence on the image quality, it is of great significance to reasonably choose the processing technology. Additionally, we have also analyzed the relationship between the surface error and the image quality evaluation. In order to ensure the final processing of the mirror to meet the requirements of the image quality, we should choose one or several methods to evaluate the surface error according to the different spatial frequency characteristics of the surface error.

The role of blood vessels in high-resolution volume conductor head modeling of EEG.

PubMed

Fiederer, L D J; Vorwerk, J; Lucka, F; Dannhauer, M; Yang, S; Dümpelmann, M; Schulze-Bonhage, A; Aertsen, A; Speck, O; Wolters, C H; Ball, T

2016-03-01

Reconstruction of the electrical sources of human EEG activity at high spatio-temporal accuracy is an important aim in neuroscience and neurological diagnostics. Over the last decades, numerous studies have demonstrated that realistic modeling of head anatomy improves the accuracy of source reconstruction of EEG signals. For example, including a cerebro-spinal fluid compartment and the anisotropy of white matter electrical conductivity were both shown to significantly reduce modeling errors. Here, we for the first time quantify the role of detailed reconstructions of the cerebral blood vessels in volume conductor head modeling for EEG. To study the role of the highly arborized cerebral blood vessels, we created a submillimeter head model based on ultra-high-field-strength (7T) structural MRI datasets. Blood vessels (arteries and emissary/intraosseous veins) were segmented using Frangi multi-scale vesselness filtering. The final head model consisted of a geometry-adapted cubic mesh with over 17×10(6) nodes. We solved the forward model using a finite-element-method (FEM) transfer matrix approach, which allowed reducing computation times substantially and quantified the importance of the blood vessel compartment by computing forward and inverse errors resulting from ignoring the blood vessels. Our results show that ignoring emissary veins piercing the skull leads to focal localization errors of approx. 5 to 15mm. Large errors (>2cm) were observed due to the carotid arteries and the dense arterial vasculature in areas such as in the insula or in the medial temporal lobe. Thus, in such predisposed areas, errors caused by neglecting blood vessels can reach similar magnitudes as those previously reported for neglecting white matter anisotropy, the CSF or the dura - structures which are generally considered important components of realistic EEG head models. Our findings thus imply that including a realistic blood vessel compartment in EEG head models will be helpful to improve the accuracy of EEG source analyses particularly when high accuracies in brain areas with dense vasculature are required. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Imaging of heart acoustic based on the sub-space methods using a microphone array.

PubMed

Moghaddasi, Hanie; Almasganj, Farshad; Zoroufian, Arezoo

2017-07-01

Heart disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Phonocardiogram (PCG) is an important bio-signal which represents the acoustic activity of heart, typically without any spatiotemporal information of the involved acoustic sources. The aim of this study is to analyze the PCG by employing a microphone array by which the heart internal sound sources could be localized, too. In this paper, it is intended to propose a modality by which the locations of the active sources in the heart could also be investigated, during a cardiac cycle. In this way, a microphone array with six microphones is employed as the recording set up to be put on the human chest. In the following, the Group Delay MUSIC algorithm which is a sub-space based localization method is used to estimate the location of the heart sources in different phases of the PCG. We achieved to 0.14cm mean error for the sources of first heart sound (S 1 ) simulator and 0.21cm mean error for the sources of second heart sound (S 2 ) simulator with Group Delay MUSIC algorithm. The acoustical diagrams created for human subjects show distinct patterns in various phases of the cardiac cycles such as the first and second heart sounds. Moreover, the evaluated source locations for the heart valves are matched with the ones that are obtained via the 4-dimensional (4D) echocardiography applied, to a real human case. Imaging of heart acoustic map presents a new outlook to indicate the acoustic properties of cardiovascular system and disorders of valves and thereby, in the future, could be used as a new diagnostic tool. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An Examination of the Spatial Distribution of Carbon Dioxide and Systematic Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffey, Brennan; Gunson, Mike; Frankenberg, Christian; Osterman, Greg

2011-01-01

The industrial period and modern age is characterized by combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas for primary energy and transportation leading to rising levels of atmospheric of CO2. This increase, which is being carefully measured, has ramifications throughout the biological world. Through remote sensing, it is possible to measure how many molecules of CO2 lie in a defined column of air. However, other gases and particles are present in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and water, which make such measurements more complicated1. Understanding the detailed geometry and path length of the observation is vital to computing the concentration of CO2. Comparing these satellite readings with ground-truth data (TCCON) the systematic errors arising from these sources can be assessed. Once the error is understood, it can be scaled for in the retrieval algorithms to create a set of data, which is closer to the TCCON measurements1. Using this process, the algorithms are being developed to reduce bias, within.1% worldwide of the true value. At this stage, the accuracy is within 1%, but through correcting small errors contained in the algorithms, such as accounting for the scattering of sunlight, the desired accuracy can be achieved.

Merotelic kinetochore attachment in oocyte meiosis II causes sister chromatids segregation errors in aged mice.

PubMed

Cheng, Jin-Mei; Li, Jian; Tang, Ji-Xin; Hao, Xiao-Xia; Wang, Zhi-Peng; Sun, Tie-Cheng; Wang, Xiu-Xia; Zhang, Yan; Chen, Su-Ren; Liu, Yi-Xun

2017-08-03

Mammalian oocyte chromosomes undergo 2 meiotic divisions to generate haploid gametes. The frequency of chromosome segregation errors during meiosis I increase with age. However, little attention has been paid to the question of how aging affects sister chromatid segregation during oocyte meiosis II. More importantly, how aneuploid metaphase II (MII) oocytes from aged mice evade the spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC) mechanism to complete later meiosis II to form aneuploid embryos remains unknown. Here, we report that MII oocytes from naturally aged mice exhibited substantial errors in chromosome arrangement and configuration compared with young MII oocytes. Interestingly, these errors in aged oocytes had no impact on anaphase II onset and completion as well as 2-cell formation after parthenogenetic activation. Further study found that merotelic kinetochore attachment occurred more frequently and could stabilize the kinetochore-microtubule interaction to ensure SAC inactivation and anaphase II onset in aged MII oocytes. This orientation could persist largely during anaphase II in aged oocytes, leading to severe chromosome lagging and trailing as well as delay of anaphase II completion. Therefore, merotelic kinetochore attachment in oocyte meiosis II exacerbates age-related genetic instability and is a key source of age-dependent embryo aneuploidy and dysplasia.

Scattering from binary optics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Douglas W.

1993-01-01

There are a number of sources of scattering in binary optics: etch depth errors, line edge errors, quantization errors, roughness, and the binary approximation to the ideal surface. These sources of scattering can be systematic (deterministic) or random. In this paper, scattering formulas for both systematic and random errors are derived using Fourier optics. These formulas can be used to explain the results of scattering measurements and computer simulations.

Psychrometric Measurement of Leaf Water Potential: Lack of Error Attributable to Leaf Permeability.

PubMed

Barrs, H D

1965-07-02

A report that low permeability could cause gross errors in psychrometric determinations of water potential in leaves has not been confirmed. No measurable error from this source could be detected for either of two types of thermocouple psychrometer tested on four species, each at four levels of water potential. No source of error other than tissue respiration could be demonstrated.

Temporal dynamics of conflict monitoring and the effects of one or two conflict sources on error-(related) negativity.

PubMed

Armbrecht, Anne-Simone; Wöhrmann, Anne; Gibbons, Henning; Stahl, Jutta

2010-09-01

The present electrophysiological study investigated the temporal development of response conflict and the effects of diverging conflict sources on error(-related) negativity (Ne). Eighteen participants performed a combined stop-signal flanker task, which was comprised of two different conflict sources: a left-right and a go-stop response conflict. It is assumed that the Ne reflects the activity of a conflict monitoring system and thus increases according to (i) the number of conflict sources and (ii) the temporal development of the conflict activity. No increase of the Ne amplitude after double errors (comprising two conflict sources) as compared to hand- and stop-errors (comprising one conflict source) was found, whereas a higher Ne amplitude was observed after a delayed stop-signal onset. The results suggest that the Ne is not sensitive to an increase in the number of conflict sources, but to the temporal dynamics of a go-stop response conflict. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Comparison of Google and Yahoo applications for geocoding of postal addresses in epidemiological studies].

PubMed

Quesada, Jose Antonio; Nolasco, Andreu; Moncho, Joaquín

2013-01-01

Geocoding is the assignment of geographic coordinates to spatial points, which often are postal addresses. The error made in applying this process can introduce bias in estimates of spatiotemporal models in epidemiological studies. No studies have been found to measure the error made in applying this process in Spanish cities. The objective is to evaluate the errors in magnitude and direction from two free sources (Google and Yahoo) with regard to a GPS in two Spanish cities. 30 addresses were geocoded with those two sources and the GPS in Santa Pola (Alicante) and Alicante city. The distances were calculated in metres (median, CI95%) between the sources and the GPS, globally and according to the status reported by each source. The directionality of the error was evaluated by calculating the location quadrant and applying a Chi-Square test. The GPS error was evaluated by geocoding 11 addresses twice at 4 days interval. The overall median in Google-GPS was 23,2 metres (16,0-32,1) for Santa Pola, and 21,4 meters (14,9-31,1) for Alicante. The overall median in Yahoo was 136,0 meters (19,2-318,5) for Santa Pola, and 23,8 meters (13,6- 29,2) for Alicante. Between the 73% and 90% were geocoded by status as "exact or interpolated" (minor error), where Goggle and Yahoo had a median error between 19 and 23 metres in the two cities. The GPS had a median error of 13.8 meters (6,7-17,8). No error directionality was detected. Google error is acceptable and stable in the two cities, so that it is a reliable source for Para medir elgeocoding addresses in Spain in epidemiological studies.

Measuring Diagnoses: ICD Code Accuracy

PubMed Central

O'Malley, Kimberly J; Cook, Karon F; Price, Matt D; Wildes, Kimberly Raiford; Hurdle, John F; Ashton, Carol M

2005-01-01

Objective To examine potential sources of errors at each step of the described inpatient International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding process. Data Sources/Study Setting The use of disease codes from the ICD has expanded from classifying morbidity and mortality information for statistical purposes to diverse sets of applications in research, health care policy, and health care finance. By describing a brief history of ICD coding, detailing the process for assigning codes, identifying where errors can be introduced into the process, and reviewing methods for examining code accuracy, we help code users more systematically evaluate code accuracy for their particular applications. Study Design/Methods We summarize the inpatient ICD diagnostic coding process from patient admission to diagnostic code assignment. We examine potential sources of errors at each step and offer code users a tool for systematically evaluating code accuracy. Principle Findings Main error sources along the “patient trajectory” include amount and quality of information at admission, communication among patients and providers, the clinician's knowledge and experience with the illness, and the clinician's attention to detail. Main error sources along the “paper trail” include variance in the electronic and written records, coder training and experience, facility quality-control efforts, and unintentional and intentional coder errors, such as misspecification, unbundling, and upcoding. Conclusions By clearly specifying the code assignment process and heightening their awareness of potential error sources, code users can better evaluate the applicability and limitations of codes for their particular situations. ICD codes can then be used in the most appropriate ways. PMID:16178999

A 1400-MHz survey of 1478 Abell clusters of galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owen, F. N.; White, R. A.; Hilldrup, K. C.; Hanisch, R. J.

1982-01-01

Observations of 1478 Abell clusters of galaxies with the NRAO 91-m telescope at 1400 MHz are reported. The measured beam shape was deconvolved from the measured source Gaussian fits in order to estimate the source size and position angle. All detected sources within 0.5 corrected Abell cluster radii are listed, including the cluster number, richness class, distance class, magnitude of the tenth brightest galaxy, redshift estimate, corrected cluster radius in arcmin, right ascension and error, declination and error, total flux density and error, and angular structure for each source.

Reaching nearby sources: comparison between real and virtual sound and visual targets

PubMed Central

Parseihian, Gaëtan; Jouffrais, Christophe; Katz, Brian F. G.

2014-01-01

Sound localization studies over the past century have predominantly been concerned with directional accuracy for far-field sources. Few studies have examined the condition of near-field sources and distance perception. The current study concerns localization and pointing accuracy by examining source positions in the peripersonal space, specifically those associated with a typical tabletop surface. Accuracy is studied with respect to the reporting hand (dominant or secondary) for auditory sources. Results show no effect on the reporting hand with azimuthal errors increasing equally for the most extreme source positions. Distance errors show a consistent compression toward the center of the reporting area. A second evaluation is carried out comparing auditory and visual stimuli to examine any bias in reporting protocol or biomechanical difficulties. No common bias error was observed between auditory and visual stimuli indicating that reporting errors were not due to biomechanical limitations in the pointing task. A final evaluation compares real auditory sources and anechoic condition virtual sources created using binaural rendering. Results showed increased azimuthal errors, with virtual source positions being consistently overestimated to more lateral positions, while no significant distance perception was observed, indicating a deficiency in the binaural rendering condition relative to the real stimuli situation. Various potential reasons for this discrepancy are discussed with several proposals for improving distance perception in peripersonal virtual environments. PMID:25228855

Propagation of resist heating mask error to wafer level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babin, S. V.; Karklin, Linard

2006-10-01

As technology is approaching 45 nm and below the IC industry is experiencing a severe product yield hit due to rapidly shrinking process windows and unavoidable manufacturing process variations. Current EDA tools are unable by their nature to deliver optimized and process-centered designs that call for 'post design' localized layout optimization DFM tools. To evaluate the impact of different manufacturing process variations on final product it is important to trace and evaluate all errors through design to manufacturing flow. Photo mask is one of the critical parts of this flow, and special attention should be paid to photo mask manufacturing process and especially to mask tight CD control. Electron beam lithography (EBL) is a major technique which is used for fabrication of high-end photo masks. During the writing process, resist heating is one of the sources for mask CD variations. Electron energy is released in the mask body mainly as heat, leading to significant temperature fluctuations in local areas. The temperature fluctuations cause changes in resist sensitivity, which in turn leads to CD variations. These CD variations depend on mask writing speed, order of exposure, pattern density and its distribution. Recent measurements revealed up to 45 nm CD variation on the mask when using ZEP resist. The resist heating problem with CAR resists is significantly smaller compared to other types of resists. This is partially due to higher resist sensitivity and the lower exposure dose required. However, there is no data yet showing CD errors on the wafer induced by CAR resist heating on the mask. This effect can be amplified by high MEEF values and should be carefully evaluated at 45nm and below technology nodes where tight CD control is required. In this paper, we simulated CD variation on the mask due to resist heating; then a mask pattern with the heating error was transferred onto the wafer. So, a CD error on the wafer was evaluated subject to only one term of the mask error budget - the resist heating CD error. In simulation of exposure using a stepper, variable MEEF was considered.

International Test Comparisons: Reviewing Translation Error in Different Source Language-Target Language Combinations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Xueyu; Solano-Flores, Guillermo; Qian, Ming

2018-01-01

This article addresses test translation review in international test comparisons. We investigated the applicability of the theory of test translation error--a theory of the multidimensionality and inevitability of test translation error--across source language-target language combinations in the translation of PISA (Programme of International…

Optical linear algebra processors: noise and error-source modeling.

PubMed

Casasent, D; Ghosh, A

1985-06-01

The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAP's) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

Optical linear algebra processors - Noise and error-source modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casasent, D.; Ghosh, A.

1985-01-01

The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAPs) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

Improve homology search sensitivity of PacBio data by correcting frameshifts.

PubMed

Du, Nan; Sun, Yanni

2016-09-01

Single-molecule, real-time sequencing (SMRT) developed by Pacific BioSciences produces longer reads than secondary generation sequencing technologies such as Illumina. The long read length enables PacBio sequencing to close gaps in genome assembly, reveal structural variations, and identify gene isoforms with higher accuracy in transcriptomic sequencing. However, PacBio data has high sequencing error rate and most of the errors are insertion or deletion errors. During alignment-based homology search, insertion or deletion errors in genes will cause frameshifts and may only lead to marginal alignment scores and short alignments. As a result, it is hard to distinguish true alignments from random alignments and the ambiguity will incur errors in structural and functional annotation. Existing frameshift correction tools are designed for data with much lower error rate and are not optimized for PacBio data. As an increasing number of groups are using SMRT, there is an urgent need for dedicated homology search tools for PacBio data. In this work, we introduce Frame-Pro, a profile homology search tool for PacBio reads. Our tool corrects sequencing errors and also outputs the profile alignments of the corrected sequences against characterized protein families. We applied our tool to both simulated and real PacBio data. The results showed that our method enables more sensitive homology search, especially for PacBio data sets of low sequencing coverage. In addition, we can correct more errors when comparing with a popular error correction tool that does not rely on hybrid sequencing. The source code is freely available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/frame-pro/ yannisun@msu.edu. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Experimental Errors in QSAR Modeling Sets: What We Can Do and What We Cannot Do.

PubMed

Zhao, Linlin; Wang, Wenyi; Sedykh, Alexander; Zhu, Hao

2017-06-30

Numerous chemical data sets have become available for quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling studies. However, the quality of different data sources may be different based on the nature of experimental protocols. Therefore, potential experimental errors in the modeling sets may lead to the development of poor QSAR models and further affect the predictions of new compounds. In this study, we explored the relationship between the ratio of questionable data in the modeling sets, which was obtained by simulating experimental errors, and the QSAR modeling performance. To this end, we used eight data sets (four continuous endpoints and four categorical endpoints) that have been extensively curated both in-house and by our collaborators to create over 1800 various QSAR models. Each data set was duplicated to create several new modeling sets with different ratios of simulated experimental errors (i.e., randomizing the activities of part of the compounds) in the modeling process. A fivefold cross-validation process was used to evaluate the modeling performance, which deteriorates when the ratio of experimental errors increases. All of the resulting models were also used to predict external sets of new compounds, which were excluded at the beginning of the modeling process. The modeling results showed that the compounds with relatively large prediction errors in cross-validation processes are likely to be those with simulated experimental errors. However, after removing a certain number of compounds with large prediction errors in the cross-validation process, the external predictions of new compounds did not show improvement. Our conclusion is that the QSAR predictions, especially consensus predictions, can identify compounds with potential experimental errors. But removing those compounds by the cross-validation procedure is not a reasonable means to improve model predictivity due to overfitting.

Experimental Errors in QSAR Modeling Sets: What We Can Do and What We Cannot Do

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Numerous chemical data sets have become available for quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) modeling studies. However, the quality of different data sources may be different based on the nature of experimental protocols. Therefore, potential experimental errors in the modeling sets may lead to the development of poor QSAR models and further affect the predictions of new compounds. In this study, we explored the relationship between the ratio of questionable data in the modeling sets, which was obtained by simulating experimental errors, and the QSAR modeling performance. To this end, we used eight data sets (four continuous endpoints and four categorical endpoints) that have been extensively curated both in-house and by our collaborators to create over 1800 various QSAR models. Each data set was duplicated to create several new modeling sets with different ratios of simulated experimental errors (i.e., randomizing the activities of part of the compounds) in the modeling process. A fivefold cross-validation process was used to evaluate the modeling performance, which deteriorates when the ratio of experimental errors increases. All of the resulting models were also used to predict external sets of new compounds, which were excluded at the beginning of the modeling process. The modeling results showed that the compounds with relatively large prediction errors in cross-validation processes are likely to be those with simulated experimental errors. However, after removing a certain number of compounds with large prediction errors in the cross-validation process, the external predictions of new compounds did not show improvement. Our conclusion is that the QSAR predictions, especially consensus predictions, can identify compounds with potential experimental errors. But removing those compounds by the cross-validation procedure is not a reasonable means to improve model predictivity due to overfitting. PMID:28691113

Heuristics and Cognitive Error in Medical Imaging.

PubMed

Itri, Jason N; Patel, Sohil H

2018-05-01

The field of cognitive science has provided important insights into mental processes underlying the interpretation of imaging examinations. Despite these insights, diagnostic error remains a major obstacle in the goal to improve quality in radiology. In this article, we describe several types of cognitive bias that lead to diagnostic errors in imaging and discuss approaches to mitigate cognitive biases and diagnostic error. Radiologists rely on heuristic principles to reduce complex tasks of assessing probabilities and predicting values into simpler judgmental operations. These mental shortcuts allow rapid problem solving based on assumptions and past experiences. Heuristics used in the interpretation of imaging studies are generally helpful but can sometimes result in cognitive biases that lead to significant errors. An understanding of the causes of cognitive biases can lead to the development of educational content and systematic improvements that mitigate errors and improve the quality of care provided by radiologists.

A study of the viability of exploiting memory content similarity to improve resilience to memory errors

DOE PAGES

Levy, Scott; Ferreira, Kurt B.; Bridges, Patrick G.; ...

2014-12-09

Building the next-generation of extreme-scale distributed systems will require overcoming several challenges related to system resilience. As the number of processors in these systems grow, the failure rate increases proportionally. One of the most common sources of failure in large-scale systems is memory. In this paper, we propose a novel runtime for transparently exploiting memory content similarity to improve system resilience by reducing the rate at which memory errors lead to node failure. We evaluate the viability of this approach by examining memory snapshots collected from eight high-performance computing (HPC) applications and two important HPC operating systems. Based on themore » characteristics of the similarity uncovered, we conclude that our proposed approach shows promise for addressing system resilience in large-scale systems.« less

ROSAT X-Ray Observation of the Second Error Box for SGR 1900+14

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, P.; Hurley, K.; Vrba, F.; Kouveliotou, C.; Meegan, C. A.; Fishman, G. J.; Kulkarni, S.; Frail, D.

1997-01-01

The positions of the two error boxes for the soft gamma repeater (SGR) 1900+14 were determined by the "network synthesis" method, which employs observations by the Ulysses gamma-ray burst and CGRO BATSE instruments. The location of the first error box has been observed at optical, infrared, and X-ray wavelengths, resulting in the discovery of a ROSAT X-ray point source and a curious double infrared source. We have recently used the ROSAT HRI to observe the second error box to complete the counterpart search. A total of six X-ray sources were identified within the field of view. None of them falls within the network synthesis error box, and a 3 sigma upper limit to any X-ray counterpart was estimated to be 6.35 x 10(exp -14) ergs/sq cm/s. The closest source is approximately 3 min. away, and has an estimated unabsorbed flux of 1.5 x 10(exp -12) ergs/sq cm/s. Unlike the first error box, there is no supernova remnant near the second error box. The closest one, G43.9+1.6, lies approximately 2.dg6 away. For these reasons, we believe that the first error box is more likely to be the correct one.

Sources of variability and systematic error in mouse timing behavior.

PubMed

Gallistel, C R; King, Adam; McDonald, Robert

2004-01-01

In the peak procedure, starts and stops in responding bracket the target time at which food is expected. The variability in start and stop times is proportional to the target time (scalar variability), as is the systematic error in the mean center (scalar error). The authors investigated the source of the error and the variability, using head poking in the mouse, with target intervals of 5 s, 15 s, and 45 s, in the standard procedure, and in a variant with 3 different target intervals at 3 different locations in a single trial. The authors conclude that the systematic error is due to the asymmetric location of start and stop decision criteria, and the scalar variability derives primarily from sources other than memory.

Magnetic Nanoparticle Thermometer: An Investigation of Minimum Error Transmission Path and AC Bias Error

PubMed Central

Du, Zhongzhou; Su, Rijian; Liu, Wenzhong; Huang, Zhixing

2015-01-01

The signal transmission module of a magnetic nanoparticle thermometer (MNPT) was established in this study to analyze the error sources introduced during the signal flow in the hardware system. The underlying error sources that significantly affected the precision of the MNPT were determined through mathematical modeling and simulation. A transfer module path with the minimum error in the hardware system was then proposed through the analysis of the variations of the system error caused by the significant error sources when the signal flew through the signal transmission module. In addition, a system parameter, named the signal-to-AC bias ratio (i.e., the ratio between the signal and AC bias), was identified as a direct determinant of the precision of the measured temperature. The temperature error was below 0.1 K when the signal-to-AC bias ratio was higher than 80 dB, and other system errors were not considered. The temperature error was below 0.1 K in the experiments with a commercial magnetic fluid (Sample SOR-10, Ocean Nanotechnology, Springdale, AR, USA) when the hardware system of the MNPT was designed with the aforementioned method. PMID:25875188

Altimeter error sources at the 10-cm performance level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, C. F.

1977-01-01

Error sources affecting the calibration and operational use of a 10 cm altimeter are examined to determine the magnitudes of current errors and the investigations necessary to reduce them to acceptable bounds. Errors considered include those affecting operational data pre-processing, and those affecting altitude bias determination, with error budgets developed for both. The most significant error sources affecting pre-processing are bias calibration, propagation corrections for the ionosphere, and measurement noise. No ionospheric models are currently validated at the required 10-25% accuracy level. The optimum smoothing to reduce the effects of measurement noise is investigated and found to be on the order of one second, based on the TASC model of geoid undulations. The 10 cm calibrations are found to be feasible only through the use of altimeter passes that are very high elevation for a tracking station which tracks very close to the time of altimeter track, such as a high elevation pass across the island of Bermuda. By far the largest error source, based on the current state-of-the-art, is the location of the island tracking station relative to mean sea level in the surrounding ocean areas.

Measuring diagnoses: ICD code accuracy.

PubMed

O'Malley, Kimberly J; Cook, Karon F; Price, Matt D; Wildes, Kimberly Raiford; Hurdle, John F; Ashton, Carol M

2005-10-01

To examine potential sources of errors at each step of the described inpatient International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding process. The use of disease codes from the ICD has expanded from classifying morbidity and mortality information for statistical purposes to diverse sets of applications in research, health care policy, and health care finance. By describing a brief history of ICD coding, detailing the process for assigning codes, identifying where errors can be introduced into the process, and reviewing methods for examining code accuracy, we help code users more systematically evaluate code accuracy for their particular applications. We summarize the inpatient ICD diagnostic coding process from patient admission to diagnostic code assignment. We examine potential sources of errors at each step and offer code users a tool for systematically evaluating code accuracy. Main error sources along the "patient trajectory" include amount and quality of information at admission, communication among patients and providers, the clinician's knowledge and experience with the illness, and the clinician's attention to detail. Main error sources along the "paper trail" include variance in the electronic and written records, coder training and experience, facility quality-control efforts, and unintentional and intentional coder errors, such as misspecification, unbundling, and upcoding. By clearly specifying the code assignment process and heightening their awareness of potential error sources, code users can better evaluate the applicability and limitations of codes for their particular situations. ICD codes can then be used in the most appropriate ways.

Minimization of model representativity errors in identification of point source emission from atmospheric concentration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharan, Maithili; Singh, Amit Kumar; Singh, Sarvesh Kumar

2017-11-01

Estimation of an unknown atmospheric release from a finite set of concentration measurements is considered an ill-posed inverse problem. Besides ill-posedness, the estimation process is influenced by the instrumental errors in the measured concentrations and model representativity errors. The study highlights the effect of minimizing model representativity errors on the source estimation. This is described in an adjoint modelling framework and followed in three steps. First, an estimation of point source parameters (location and intensity) is carried out using an inversion technique. Second, a linear regression relationship is established between the measured concentrations and corresponding predicted using the retrieved source parameters. Third, this relationship is utilized to modify the adjoint functions. Further, source estimation is carried out using these modified adjoint functions to analyse the effect of such modifications. The process is tested for two well known inversion techniques, called renormalization and least-square. The proposed methodology and inversion techniques are evaluated for a real scenario by using concentrations measurements from the Idaho diffusion experiment in low wind stable conditions. With both the inversion techniques, a significant improvement is observed in the retrieval of source estimation after minimizing the representativity errors.

Testing the Motor Simulation Account of Source Errors for Actions in Recall

PubMed Central

Lange, Nicholas; Hollins, Timothy J.; Bach, Patric

2017-01-01

Observing someone else perform an action can lead to false memories of self-performance – the observation inflation effect. One explanation is that action simulation via mirror neuron activation during action observation is responsible for observation inflation by enriching memories of observed actions with motor representations. In three experiments we investigated this account of source memory failures, using a novel paradigm that minimized influences of verbalization and prior object knowledge. Participants worked in pairs to take turns acting out geometric shapes and letters. The next day, participants recalled either actions they had performed or those they had observed. Experiment 1 showed that participants falsely retrieved observed actions as self-performed, but also retrieved self-performed actions as observed. Experiment 2 showed that preventing participants from encoding observed actions motorically by taxing their motor system with a concurrent motor task did not lead to the predicted decrease in false claims of self-performance. Indeed, Experiment 3 showed that this was the case even if participants were asked to carefully monitor their recall. Because our data provide no evidence for a motor activation account, we also discussed our results in light of a source monitoring account. PMID:29033874

Syndrome source coding and its universal generalization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancheta, T. C., Jr.

1975-01-01

A method of using error-correcting codes to obtain data compression, called syndrome-source-coding, is described in which the source sequence is treated as an error pattern whose syndrome forms the compressed data. It is shown that syndrome-source-coding can achieve arbitrarily small distortion with the number of compressed digits per source digit arbitrarily close to the entropy of a binary memoryless source. A universal generalization of syndrome-source-coding is formulated which provides robustly-effective, distortionless, coding of source ensembles.

A data-driven modeling approach to stochastic computation for low-energy biomedical devices.

PubMed

Lee, Kyong Ho; Jang, Kuk Jin; Shoeb, Ali; Verma, Naveen

2011-01-01

Low-power devices that can detect clinically relevant correlations in physiologically-complex patient signals can enable systems capable of closed-loop response (e.g., controlled actuation of therapeutic stimulators, continuous recording of disease states, etc.). In ultra-low-power platforms, however, hardware error sources are becoming increasingly limiting. In this paper, we present how data-driven methods, which allow us to accurately model physiological signals, also allow us to effectively model and overcome prominent hardware error sources with nearly no additional overhead. Two applications, EEG-based seizure detection and ECG-based arrhythmia-beat classification, are synthesized to a logic-gate implementation, and two prominent error sources are introduced: (1) SRAM bit-cell errors and (2) logic-gate switching errors ('stuck-at' faults). Using patient data from the CHB-MIT and MIT-BIH databases, performance similar to error-free hardware is achieved even for very high fault rates (up to 0.5 for SRAMs and 7 × 10(-2) for logic) that cause computational bit error rates as high as 50%.

Parameter optimization in biased decoy-state quantum key distribution with both source errors and statistical fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jian-Rong; Li, Jian; Zhang, Chun-Mei; Wang, Qin

2017-10-01

The decoy-state method has been widely used in commercial quantum key distribution (QKD) systems. In view of the practical decoy-state QKD with both source errors and statistical fluctuations, we propose a universal model of full parameter optimization in biased decoy-state QKD with phase-randomized sources. Besides, we adopt this model to carry out simulations of two widely used sources: weak coherent source (WCS) and heralded single-photon source (HSPS). Results show that full parameter optimization can significantly improve not only the secure transmission distance but also the final key generation rate. And when taking source errors and statistical fluctuations into account, the performance of decoy-state QKD using HSPS suffered less than that of decoy-state QKD using WCS.

Explosion yield estimation from pressure wave template matching

PubMed Central

Arrowsmith, Stephen; Bowman, Daniel

2017-01-01

A method for estimating the yield of explosions from shock-wave and acoustic-wave measurements is presented. The method exploits full waveforms by comparing pressure measurements against an empirical stack of prior observations using scaling laws. The approach can be applied to measurements across a wide-range of source-to-receiver distances. The method is applied to data from two explosion experiments in different regions, leading to mean relative errors in yield estimates of 0.13 using prior data from the same region, and 0.2 when applied to a new region. PMID:28618805

New approaches for automatic threedimensional source localization of acoustic emissions--Applications to concrete specimens.

PubMed

Kurz, Jochen H

2015-12-01

The task of locating a source in space by measuring travel time differences of elastic or electromagnetic waves from the source to several sensors is evident in varying fields. The new concepts of automatic acoustic emission localization presented in this article are based on developments from geodesy and seismology. A detailed description of source location determination in space is given with the focus on acoustic emission data from concrete specimens. Direct and iterative solvers are compared. A concept based on direct solvers from geodesy extended by a statistical approach is described which allows a stable source location determination even for partly erroneous onset times. The developed approach is validated with acoustic emission data from a large specimen leading to travel paths up to 1m and therefore to noisy data with errors in the determined onsets. The adaption of the algorithms from geodesy to the localization procedure of sources of elastic waves offers new possibilities concerning stability, automation and performance of localization results. Fracture processes can be assessed more accurately. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unsupervised Segmentation of Head Tissues from Multi-modal MR Images for EEG Source Localization.

PubMed

Mahmood, Qaiser; Chodorowski, Artur; Mehnert, Andrew; Gellermann, Johanna; Persson, Mikael

2015-08-01

In this paper, we present and evaluate an automatic unsupervised segmentation method, hierarchical segmentation approach (HSA)-Bayesian-based adaptive mean shift (BAMS), for use in the construction of a patient-specific head conductivity model for electroencephalography (EEG) source localization. It is based on a HSA and BAMS for segmenting the tissues from multi-modal magnetic resonance (MR) head images. The evaluation of the proposed method was done both directly in terms of segmentation accuracy and indirectly in terms of source localization accuracy. The direct evaluation was performed relative to a commonly used reference method brain extraction tool (BET)-FMRIB's automated segmentation tool (FAST) and four variants of the HSA using both synthetic data and real data from ten subjects. The synthetic data includes multiple realizations of four different noise levels and several realizations of typical noise with a 20% bias field level. The Dice index and Hausdorff distance were used to measure the segmentation accuracy. The indirect evaluation was performed relative to the reference method BET-FAST using synthetic two-dimensional (2D) multimodal magnetic resonance (MR) data with 3% noise and synthetic EEG (generated for a prescribed source). The source localization accuracy was determined in terms of localization error and relative error of potential. The experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of HSA-BAMS, its robustness to noise and the bias field, and that it provides better segmentation accuracy than the reference method and variants of the HSA. They also show that it leads to a more accurate localization accuracy than the commonly used reference method and suggest that it has potential as a surrogate for expert manual segmentation for the EEG source localization problem.

Shared and unshared exposure measurement error in occupational cohort studies and their effects on statistical inference in proportional hazards models.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Sabine; Laurier, Dominique; Rage, Estelle; Guihenneuc, Chantal; Ancelet, Sophie

2018-01-01

Exposure measurement error represents one of the most important sources of uncertainty in epidemiology. When exposure uncertainty is not or only poorly accounted for, it can lead to biased risk estimates and a distortion of the shape of the exposure-response relationship. In occupational cohort studies, the time-dependent nature of exposure and changes in the method of exposure assessment may create complex error structures. When a method of group-level exposure assessment is used, individual worker practices and the imprecision of the instrument used to measure the average exposure for a group of workers may give rise to errors that are shared between workers, within workers or both. In contrast to unshared measurement error, the effects of shared errors remain largely unknown. Moreover, exposure uncertainty and magnitude of exposure are typically highest for the earliest years of exposure. We conduct a simulation study based on exposure data of the French cohort of uranium miners to compare the effects of shared and unshared exposure uncertainty on risk estimation and on the shape of the exposure-response curve in proportional hazards models. Our results indicate that uncertainty components shared within workers cause more bias in risk estimation and a more severe attenuation of the exposure-response relationship than unshared exposure uncertainty or exposure uncertainty shared between individuals. These findings underline the importance of careful characterisation and modeling of exposure uncertainty in observational studies.

Shared and unshared exposure measurement error in occupational cohort studies and their effects on statistical inference in proportional hazards models

PubMed Central

Laurier, Dominique; Rage, Estelle

2018-01-01

Exposure measurement error represents one of the most important sources of uncertainty in epidemiology. When exposure uncertainty is not or only poorly accounted for, it can lead to biased risk estimates and a distortion of the shape of the exposure-response relationship. In occupational cohort studies, the time-dependent nature of exposure and changes in the method of exposure assessment may create complex error structures. When a method of group-level exposure assessment is used, individual worker practices and the imprecision of the instrument used to measure the average exposure for a group of workers may give rise to errors that are shared between workers, within workers or both. In contrast to unshared measurement error, the effects of shared errors remain largely unknown. Moreover, exposure uncertainty and magnitude of exposure are typically highest for the earliest years of exposure. We conduct a simulation study based on exposure data of the French cohort of uranium miners to compare the effects of shared and unshared exposure uncertainty on risk estimation and on the shape of the exposure-response curve in proportional hazards models. Our results indicate that uncertainty components shared within workers cause more bias in risk estimation and a more severe attenuation of the exposure-response relationship than unshared exposure uncertainty or exposure uncertainty shared between individuals. These findings underline the importance of careful characterisation and modeling of exposure uncertainty in observational studies. PMID:29408862

Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peres, David J.; Cancelliere, Antonino; Greco, Roberto; Bogaard, Thom A.

2018-03-01

Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity-duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

Independent sources of anisotropy in visual orientation representation: a visual and a cognitive oblique effect.

PubMed

Balikou, Panagiota; Gourtzelidis, Pavlos; Mantas, Asimakis; Moutoussis, Konstantinos; Evdokimidis, Ioannis; Smyrnis, Nikolaos

2015-11-01

The representation of visual orientation is more accurate for cardinal orientations compared to oblique, and this anisotropy has been hypothesized to reflect a low-level visual process (visual, "class 1" oblique effect). The reproduction of directional and orientation information also leads to a mean error away from cardinal orientations or directions. This anisotropy has been hypothesized to reflect a high-level cognitive process of space categorization (cognitive, "class 2," oblique effect). This space categorization process would be more prominent when the visual representation of orientation degrades such as in the case of working memory with increasing cognitive load, leading to increasing magnitude of the "class 2" oblique effect, while the "class 1" oblique effect would remain unchanged. Two experiments were performed in which an array of orientation stimuli (1-4 items) was presented and then subjects had to realign a probe stimulus within the previously presented array. In the first experiment, the delay between stimulus presentation and probe varied, while in the second experiment, the stimulus presentation time varied. The variable error was larger for oblique compared to cardinal orientations in both experiments reproducing the visual "class 1" oblique effect. The mean error also reproduced the tendency away from cardinal and toward the oblique orientations in both experiments (cognitive "class 2" oblique effect). The accuracy or the reproduced orientation degraded (increasing variable error) and the cognitive "class 2" oblique effect increased with increasing memory load (number of items) in both experiments and presentation time in the second experiment. In contrast, the visual "class 1" oblique effect was not significantly modulated by any one of these experimental factors. These results confirmed the theoretical predictions for the two anisotropies in visual orientation reproduction and provided support for models proposing the categorization of orientation in visual working memory.

Does size matter? Statistical limits of paleomagnetic field reconstruction from small rock specimens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berndt, Thomas; Muxworthy, Adrian R.; Fabian, Karl

2016-01-01

As samples of ever decreasing sizes are being studied paleomagnetically, care has to be taken that the underlying assumptions of statistical thermodynamics (Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics) are being met. Here we determine how many grains and how large a magnetic moment a sample needs to have to be able to accurately record an ambient field. It is found that for samples with a thermoremanent magnetic moment larger than 10-11Am2 the assumption of a sufficiently large number of grains is usually given. Standard 25 mm diameter paleomagnetic samples usually contain enough magnetic grains such that statistical errors are negligible, but "single silicate crystal" works on, for example, zircon, plagioclase, and olivine crystals are approaching the limits of what is physically possible, leading to statistic errors in both the angular deviation and paleointensity that are comparable to other sources of error. The reliability of nanopaleomagnetic imaging techniques capable of resolving individual grains (used, for example, to study the cloudy zone in meteorites), however, is questionable due to the limited area of the material covered.

Estimation of the caesium-137 source term from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant using a consistent joint assimilation of air concentration and deposition observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiarek, Victor; Bocquet, Marc; Duhanyan, Nora; Roustan, Yelva; Saunier, Olivier; Mathieu, Anne

2014-01-01

Inverse modelling techniques can be used to estimate the amount of radionuclides and the temporal profile of the source term released in the atmosphere during the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. In Winiarek et al. (2012b), the lower bounds of the caesium-137 and iodine-131 source terms were estimated with such techniques, using activity concentration measurements. The importance of an objective assessment of prior errors (the observation errors and the background errors) was emphasised for a reliable inversion. In such critical context where the meteorological conditions can make the source term partly unobservable and where only a few observations are available, such prior estimation techniques are mandatory, the retrieved source term being very sensitive to this estimation. We propose to extend the use of these techniques to the estimation of prior errors when assimilating observations from several data sets. The aim is to compute an estimate of the caesium-137 source term jointly using all available data about this radionuclide, such as activity concentrations in the air, but also daily fallout measurements and total cumulated fallout measurements. It is crucial to properly and simultaneously estimate the background errors and the prior errors relative to each data set. A proper estimation of prior errors is also a necessary condition to reliably estimate the a posteriori uncertainty of the estimated source term. Using such techniques, we retrieve a total released quantity of caesium-137 in the interval 11.6-19.3 PBq with an estimated standard deviation range of 15-20% depending on the method and the data sets. The “blind” time intervals of the source term have also been strongly mitigated compared to the first estimations with only activity concentration data.

Voluminator 2.0 - Speeding up the Approximation of the Volume of Defective 3d Building Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sindram, M.; Machl, T.; Steuer, H.; Pültz, M.; Kolbe, T. H.

2016-06-01

Semantic 3D city models are increasingly used as a data source in planning and analyzing processes of cities. They represent a virtual copy of the reality and are a common information base and source of information for examining urban questions. A significant advantage of virtual city models is that important indicators such as the volume of buildings, topological relationships between objects and other geometric as well as thematic information can be derived. Knowledge about the exact building volume is an essential base for estimating the building energy demand. In order to determine the volume of buildings with conventional algorithms and tools, the buildings may not contain any topological and geometrical errors. The reality, however, shows that city models very often contain errors such as missing surfaces, duplicated faces and misclosures. To overcome these errors (Steuer et al., 2015) have presented a robust method for approximating the volume of building models. For this purpose, a bounding box of the building is divided into a regular grid of voxels and it is determined which voxels are inside the building. The regular arrangement of the voxels leads to a high number of topological tests and prevents the application of this method using very high resolutions. In this paper we present an extension of the algorithm using an octree approach limiting the subdivision of space to regions around surfaces of the building models and to regions where, in the case of defective models, the topological tests are inconclusive. We show that the computation time can be significantly reduced, while preserving the robustness against geometrical and topological errors.

Do We Really Need Sinusoidal Surface Temperatures to Apply Heat Tracing Techniques to Estimate Streambed Fluid Fluxes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, C. H.; Tonina, D.; Applebee, R.; DeWeese, T.

2017-12-01

Two common refrains about using the one-dimensional advection diffusion equation to estimate fluid fluxes, thermal conductivity, or bed surface elevation from temperature time series in streambeds are that the solution assumes that 1) the surface boundary condition is a sine wave or nearly so, and 2) there is no gradient in mean temperature with depth. Concerns on these subjects are phrased in various ways, including non-stationarity in frequency, amplitude, or phase. Although the mathematical posing of the original solution to the problem might lead one to believe these constraints exist, the perception that they are a source of error is a fallacy. Here we re-derive the inverse solution of the 1-D advection-diffusion equation starting with an arbitrary surface boundary condition for temperature. In doing so, we demonstrate the frequency-independence of the solution, meaning any single frequency can be used in the frequency-domain solutions to estimate thermal diffusivity and 1-D fluid flux in streambeds, even if the forcing has multiple frequencies. This means that diurnal variations with asymmetric shapes, gradients in the mean temperature with depth, or `non-stationary' amplitude and frequency (or phase) do not actually represent violations of assumptions, and they should not cause errors in estimates when using one of the suite of existing solution methods derived based on a single frequency. Misattribution of errors to these issues constrains progress on solving real sources of error. Numerical and physical experiments are used to verify this conclusion and consider the utility of information at `non-standard' frequencies and multiple frequencies to augment the information derived from time series of temperature.

Two-dimensional simulation of eccentric photorefraction images for ametropes: factors influencing the measurement.

PubMed

Wu, Yifei; Thibos, Larry N; Candy, T Rowan

2018-05-07

Eccentric photorefraction and Purkinje image tracking are used to estimate refractive state and eye position simultaneously. Beyond vision screening, they provide insight into typical and atypical visual development. Systematic analysis of the effect of refractive error and spectacles on photorefraction data is needed to gauge the accuracy and precision of the technique. Simulation of two-dimensional, double-pass eccentric photorefraction was performed (Zemax). The inward pass included appropriate light sources, lenses and a single surface pupil plane eye model to create an extended retinal image that served as the source for the outward pass. Refractive state, as computed from the luminance gradient in the image of the pupil captured by the model's camera, was evaluated for a range of refractive errors (-15D to +15D), pupil sizes (3 mm to 7 mm) and two sets of higher-order monochromatic aberrations. Instrument calibration was simulated using -8D to +8D trial lenses at the spectacle plane for: (1) vertex distances from 3 mm to 23 mm, (2) uncorrected and corrected hyperopic refractive errors of +4D and +7D, and (3) uncorrected and corrected astigmatism of 4D at four different axes. Empirical calibration of a commercial photorefractor was also compared with a wavefront aberrometer for human eyes. The pupil luminance gradient varied linearly with refractive state for defocus less than approximately 4D (5 mm pupil). For larger errors, the gradient magnitude saturated and then reduced, leading to under-estimation of refractive state. Additional inaccuracy (up to 1D for 8D of defocus) resulted from spectacle magnification in the pupil image, which would reduce precision in situations where vertex distance is variable. The empirical calibration revealed a constant offset between the two clinical instruments. Computational modelling demonstrates the principles and limitations of photorefraction to help users avoid potential measurement errors. Factors that could cause clinically significant errors in photorefraction estimates include high refractive error, vertex distance and magnification effects of a spectacle lens, increased higher-order monochromatic aberrations, and changes in primary spherical aberration with accommodation. The impact of these errors increases with increasing defocus. © 2018 The Authors Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2018 The College of Optometrists.

Clarification of terminology in medication errors: definitions and classification.

PubMed

Ferner, Robin E; Aronson, Jeffrey K

2006-01-01

We have previously described and analysed some terms that are used in drug safety and have proposed definitions. Here we discuss and define terms that are used in the field of medication errors, particularly terms that are sometimes misunderstood or misused. We also discuss the classification of medication errors. A medication error is a failure in the treatment process that leads to, or has the potential to lead to, harm to the patient. Errors can be classified according to whether they are mistakes, slips, or lapses. Mistakes are errors in the planning of an action. They can be knowledge based or rule based. Slips and lapses are errors in carrying out an action - a slip through an erroneous performance and a lapse through an erroneous memory. Classification of medication errors is important because the probabilities of errors of different classes are different, as are the potential remedies.

Implicit Monte Carlo with a linear discontinuous finite element material solution and piecewise non-constant opacity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wollaeger, Ryan T.; Wollaber, Allan B.; Urbatsch, Todd J.

2016-02-23

Here, the non-linear thermal radiative-transfer equations can be solved in various ways. One popular way is the Fleck and Cummings Implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) method. The IMC method was originally formulated with piecewise-constant material properties. For domains with a coarse spatial grid and large temperature gradients, an error known as numerical teleportation may cause artificially non-causal energy propagation and consequently an inaccurate material temperature. Source tilting is a technique to reduce teleportation error by constructing sub-spatial-cell (or sub-cell) emission profiles from which IMC particles are sampled. Several source tilting schemes exist, but some allow teleportation error to persist. We examinemore » the effect of source tilting in problems with a temperature-dependent opacity. Within each cell, the opacity is evaluated continuously from a temperature profile implied by the source tilt. For IMC, this is a new approach to modeling the opacity. We find that applying both source tilting along with a source tilt-dependent opacity can introduce another dominant error that overly inhibits thermal wavefronts. We show that we can mitigate both teleportation and under-propagation errors if we discretize the temperature equation with a linear discontinuous (LD) trial space. Our method is for opacities ~ 1/T 3, but we formulate and test a slight extension for opacities ~ 1/T 3.5, where T is temperature. We find our method avoids errors that can be incurred by IMC with continuous source tilt constructions and piecewise-constant material temperature updates.« less

Feasibility of Equivalent Dipole Models for Electroencephalogram-Based Brain Computer Interfaces.

PubMed

Schimpf, Paul H

2017-09-15

This article examines the localization errors of equivalent dipolar sources inverted from the surface electroencephalogram in order to determine the feasibility of using their location as classification parameters for non-invasive brain computer interfaces. Inverse localization errors are examined for two head models: a model represented by four concentric spheres and a realistic model based on medical imagery. It is shown that the spherical model results in localization ambiguity such that a number of dipolar sources, with different azimuths and varying orientations, provide a near match to the electroencephalogram of the best equivalent source. No such ambiguity exists for the elevation of inverted sources, indicating that for spherical head models, only the elevation of inverted sources (and not the azimuth) can be expected to provide meaningful classification parameters for brain-computer interfaces. In a realistic head model, all three parameters of the inverted source location are found to be reliable, providing a more robust set of parameters. In both cases, the residual error hypersurfaces demonstrate local minima, indicating that a search for the best-matching sources should be global. Source localization error vs. signal-to-noise ratio is also demonstrated for both head models.

Integrating Low-Cost Mems Accelerometer Mini-Arrays (mama) in Earthquake Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nof, R. N.; Chung, A. I.; Rademacher, H.; Allen, R. M.

2016-12-01

Current operational Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) acquire data with networks of single seismic stations, and compute source parameters assuming earthquakes to be point sources. For large events, the point-source assumption leads to an underestimation of magnitude, and the use of single stations leads to large uncertainties in the locations of events outside the network. We propose the use of mini-arrays to improve EEWS. Mini-arrays have the potential to: (a) estimate reliable hypocentral locations by beam forming (FK-analysis) techniques; (b) characterize the rupture dimensions and account for finite-source effects, leading to more reliable estimates for large magnitudes. Previously, the high price of multiple seismometers has made creating arrays cost-prohibitive. However, we propose setting up mini-arrays of a new seismometer based on low-cost (<$150), high-performance MEMS accelerometer around conventional seismic stations. The expected benefits of such an approach include decreasing alert-times, improving real-time shaking predictions and mitigating false alarms. We use low-resolution 14-bit Quake Catcher Network (QCN) data collected during Rapid Aftershock Mobilization Program (RAMP) in Christchurch, NZ following the M7.1 Darfield earthquake in September 2010. As the QCN network was so dense, we were able to use small sub-array of up to ten sensors spread along a maximum area of 1.7x2.2 km2 to demonstrate our approach and to solve for the BAZ of two events (Mw4.7 and Mw5.1) with less than ±10° error. We will also present the new 24-bit device details, benchmarks, and real-time measurements.

Human error and the search for blame

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denning, Peter J.

1989-01-01

Human error is a frequent topic in discussions about risks in using computer systems. A rational analysis of human error leads through the consideration of mistakes to standards that designers use to avoid mistakes that lead to known breakdowns. The irrational side, however, is more interesting. It conditions people to think that breakdowns are inherently wrong and that there is ultimately someone who is responsible. This leads to a search for someone to blame which diverts attention from: learning from the mistakes; seeing the limitations of current engineering methodology; and improving the discourse of design.

Correlation methods in optical metrology with state-of-the-art x-ray mirrors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yashchuk, Valeriy V.; Centers, Gary; Gevorkyan, Gevork S.; Lacey, Ian; Smith, Brian V.

2018-01-01

The development of fully coherent free electron lasers and diffraction limited storage ring x-ray sources has brought to focus the need for higher performing x-ray optics with unprecedented tolerances for surface slope and height errors and roughness. For example, the proposed beamlines for the future upgraded Advance Light Source, ALS-U, require optical elements characterized by a residual slope error of <100 nrad (root-mean-square) and height error of <1-2 nm (peak-tovalley). These are for optics with a length of up to one meter. However, the current performance of x-ray optical fabrication and metrology generally falls short of these requirements. The major limitation comes from the lack of reliable and efficient surface metrology with required accuracy and with reasonably high measurement rate, suitable for integration into the modern deterministic surface figuring processes. The major problems of current surface metrology relate to the inherent instrumental temporal drifts, systematic errors, and/or an unacceptably high cost, as in the case of interferometry with computer-generated holograms as a reference. In this paper, we discuss the experimental methods and approaches based on correlation analysis to the acquisition and processing of metrology data developed at the ALS X-Ray Optical Laboratory (XROL). Using an example of surface topography measurements of a state-of-the-art x-ray mirror performed at the XROL, we demonstrate the efficiency of combining the developed experimental correlation methods to the advanced optimal scanning strategy (AOSS) technique. This allows a significant improvement in the accuracy and capacity of the measurements via suppression of the instrumental low frequency noise, temporal drift, and systematic error in a single measurement run. Practically speaking, implementation of the AOSS technique leads to an increase of the measurement accuracy, as well as the capacity of ex situ metrology by a factor of about four. The developed method is general and applicable to a broad spectrum of high accuracy measurements.

CHARACTERIZATION OF THE MILLIMETER-WAVE POLARIZATION OF CENTAURUS A WITH QUaD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zemcov, M.; Bock, J.; Leitch, E.

2010-02-20

Centaurus (Cen) A represents one of the best candidates for an isolated, compact, highly polarized source that is bright at typical cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment frequencies. We present measurements of the 4{sup 0} x 2{sup 0} region centered on Cen A with QUaD, a CMB polarimeter whose absolute polarization angle is known to an accuracy of 0.{sup 0}5. Simulations are performed to assess the effect of misestimation of the instrumental parameters on the final measurement and systematic errors due to the field's background structure and temporal variability from Cen A's nuclear region are determined. The total (Q, U) ofmore » the inner lobe region is (1.00 +- 0.07(stat.) +- 0.04(sys.), - 1.72 +- 0.06 +- 0.05) Jy at 100 GHz and (0.80 +- 0.06 +- 0.06, - 1.40 +- 0.07 +- 0.08) Jy at 150 GHz, leading to polarization angles and total errors of -30.{sup 0}0 +- 1.{sup 0}1 and -29.{sup 0}1 +- 1.{sup 0}7. These measurements will allow the use of Cen A as a polarized calibration source for future millimeter experiments.« less

Error analysis in stereo vision for location measurement of 3D point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yunting; Zhang, Jun; Tian, Jinwen

2015-12-01

Location measurement of 3D point in stereo vision is subjected to different sources of uncertainty that propagate to the final result. For current methods of error analysis, most of them are based on ideal intersection model to calculate the uncertainty region of point location via intersecting two fields of view of pixel that may produce loose bounds. Besides, only a few of sources of error such as pixel error or camera position are taken into account in the process of analysis. In this paper we present a straightforward and available method to estimate the location error that is taken most of source of error into account. We summed up and simplified all the input errors to five parameters by rotation transformation. Then we use the fast algorithm of midpoint method to deduce the mathematical relationships between target point and the parameters. Thus, the expectations and covariance matrix of 3D point location would be obtained, which can constitute the uncertainty region of point location. Afterwards, we turned back to the error propagation of the primitive input errors in the stereo system and throughout the whole analysis process from primitive input errors to localization error. Our method has the same level of computational complexity as the state-of-the-art method. Finally, extensive experiments are performed to verify the performance of our methods.

Towards Complete, Geo-Referenced 3d Models from Crowd-Sourced Amateur Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, W.; Havlena, M.; Schindler, K.

2016-06-01

Despite a lot of recent research, photogrammetric reconstruction from crowd-sourced imagery is plagued by a number of recurrent problems. (i) The resulting models are chronically incomplete, because even touristic landmarks are photographed mostly from a few "canonical" viewpoints. (ii) Man-made constructions tend to exhibit repetitive structure and rotational symmetries, which lead to gross errors in the 3D reconstruction and aggravate the problem of incomplete reconstruction. (iii) The models are normally not geo-referenced. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using sparse GNSS geo-tags from digital cameras to address these issues and push the boundaries of crowd-sourced photogrammetry. A small proportion of the images in Internet collections (≍ 10 %) do possess geo-tags. While the individual geo-tags are very inaccurate, they nevertheless can help to address the problems above. By providing approximate geo-reference for partial reconstructions they make it possible to fuse those pieces into more complete models; the capability to fuse partial reconstruction opens up the possibility to be more restrictive in the matching phase and avoid errors due to repetitive structure; and collectively, the redundant set of low-quality geo-tags can provide reasonably accurate absolute geo-reference. We show that even few, noisy geo-tags can help to improve architectural models, compared to puristic structure-from-motion only based on image correspondence.

Adaptation to sensory-motor reflex perturbations is blind to the source of errors.

PubMed

Hudson, Todd E; Landy, Michael S

2012-01-06

In the study of visual-motor control, perhaps the most familiar findings involve adaptation to externally imposed movement errors. Theories of visual-motor adaptation based on optimal information processing suppose that the nervous system identifies the sources of errors to effect the most efficient adaptive response. We report two experiments using a novel perturbation based on stimulating a visually induced reflex in the reaching arm. Unlike adaptation to an external force, our method induces a perturbing reflex within the motor system itself, i.e., perturbing forces are self-generated. This novel method allows a test of the theory that error source information is used to generate an optimal adaptive response. If the self-generated source of the visually induced reflex perturbation is identified, the optimal response will be via reflex gain control. If the source is not identified, a compensatory force should be generated to counteract the reflex. Gain control is the optimal response to reflex perturbation, both because energy cost and movement errors are minimized. Energy is conserved because neither reflex-induced nor compensatory forces are generated. Precision is maximized because endpoint variance is proportional to force production. We find evidence against source-identified adaptation in both experiments, suggesting that sensory-motor information processing is not always optimal.

Data Retrieval Algorithms for Validating the Optical Transient Detector and the Lightning Imaging Sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Bailey, J. C.

2000-01-01

A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from an Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing, and arrival time of lightning radio emissions. Solutions for the plane (i.e., no earth curvature) are provided that implement all of these measurements. The accuracy of the retrieval method is tested using computer-simulated datasets, and the relative influence of bearing and arrival time data an the outcome of the final solution is formally demonstrated. The algorithm is sufficiently accurate to validate NASA:s Optical Transient Detector and Lightning Imaging Sensor. A quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available is also introduced. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in sc)iirce location, Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. For arbitrary noncollinear network geometries and in the absence of measurement errors, it is shown that the two quadratic roots are equivalent (no source location ambiguity) on the outer sensor baselines. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer-generated datasets, and the results are generally better than those obtained from the three-station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 deg.

Comparison of memory thresholds for planar qudit geometries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marks, Jacob; Jochym-O'Connor, Tomas; Gheorghiu, Vlad

2017-11-01

We introduce and analyze a new type of decoding algorithm called general color clustering, based on renormalization group methods, to be used in qudit color codes. The performance of this decoder is analyzed under a generalized bit-flip error model, and is used to obtain the first memory threshold estimates for qudit 6-6-6 color codes. The proposed decoder is compared with similar decoding schemes for qudit surface codes as well as the current leading qubit decoders for both sets of codes. We find that, as with surface codes, clustering performs sub-optimally for qubit color codes, giving a threshold of 5.6 % compared to the 8.0 % obtained through surface projection decoding methods. However, the threshold rate increases by up to 112% for large qudit dimensions, plateauing around 11.9 % . All the analysis is performed using QTop, a new open-source software for simulating and visualizing topological quantum error correcting codes.

Precise and Scalable Static Program Analysis of NASA Flight Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brat, G.; Venet, A.

2005-01-01

Recent NASA mission failures (e.g., Mars Polar Lander and Mars Orbiter) illustrate the importance of having an efficient verification and validation process for such systems. One software error, as simple as it may be, can cause the loss of an expensive mission, or lead to budget overruns and crunched schedules. Unfortunately, traditional verification methods cannot guarantee the absence of errors in software systems. Therefore, we have developed the CGS static program analysis tool, which can exhaustively analyze large C programs. CGS analyzes the source code and identifies statements in which arrays are accessed out of bounds, or, pointers are used outside the memory region they should address. This paper gives a high-level description of CGS and its theoretical foundations. It also reports on the use of CGS on real NASA software systems used in Mars missions (from Mars PathFinder to Mars Exploration Rover) and on the International Space Station.

Effects of instrument imperfections on quantitative scanning transmission electron microscopy.

PubMed

Krause, Florian F; Schowalter, Marco; Grieb, Tim; Müller-Caspary, Knut; Mehrtens, Thorsten; Rosenauer, Andreas

2016-02-01

Several instrumental imperfections of transmission electron microscopes are characterized and their effects on the results of quantitative scanning electron microscopy (STEM) are investigated and quantified using simulations. Methods to either avoid influences of these imperfections during acquisition or to include them in reference calculations are proposed. Particularly, distortions inflicted on the diffraction pattern by an image-aberration corrector can cause severe errors of more than 20% if not accounted for. A procedure for their measurement is proposed here. Furthermore, afterglow phenomena and nonlinear behavior of the detector itself can lead to incorrect normalization of measured intensities. Single electrons accidentally impinging on the detector are another source of error but can also be exploited for threshold-less calibration of STEM images to absolute dose, incident beam current determination and measurement of the detector sensitivity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polynomial-interpolation algorithm for van der Pauw Hall measurement in a metal hydride film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koon, D. W.; Ares, J. R.; Leardini, F.; Fernández, J. F.; Ferrer, I. J.

2008-10-01

We apply a four-term polynomial-interpolation extension of the van der Pauw Hall measurement technique to a 330 nm Mg-Pd bilayer during both absorption and desorption of hydrogen at room temperature. We show that standard versions of the van der Pauw DC Hall measurement technique produce an error of over 100% due to a drifting offset signal and can lead to unphysical interpretations of the physical processes occurring in this film. The four-term technique effectively removes this source of error, even when the offset signal is drifting by an amount larger than the Hall signal in the time interval between successive measurements. This technique can be used to increase the resolution of transport studies of any material in which the resistivity is rapidly changing, particularly when the material is changing from metallic to insulating behavior.

Acquisition of Pragmatic Routines by Learners of L2 English: Investigating Common Errors and Sources of Pragmatic Fossilization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tajeddin, Zia; Alemi, Minoo; Pashmforoosh, Roya

2017-01-01

Unlike linguistic fossilization, pragmatic fossilization has received scant attention in fossilization research. To bridge this gap, the present study adopted a typical-error method of fossilization research to identify the most frequent errors in pragmatic routines committed by Persian-speaking learners of L2 English and explore the sources of…

Photograph-based ergonomic evaluations using the Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA).

PubMed

Liebregts, J; Sonne, M; Potvin, J R

2016-01-01

The Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA) was developed to assess musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risk factors for computer workstations. This study examined the validity and reliability of remotely conducted, photo-based assessments using ROSA. Twenty-three office workstations were assessed on-site by an ergonomist, and 5 photos were obtained. Photo-based assessments were conducted by three ergonomists. The sensitivity and specificity of the photo-based assessors' ability to correctly classify workstations was 79% and 55%, respectively. The moderate specificity associated with false positive errors committed by the assessors could lead to unnecessary costs to the employer. Error between on-site and photo-based final scores was a considerable ∼2 points on the 10-point ROSA scale (RMSE = 2.3), with a moderate relationship (ρ = 0.33). Interrater reliability ranged from fairly good to excellent (ICC = 0.667-0.856) and was comparable to previous results. Sources of error include the parallax effect, poor estimations of small joint (e.g. hand/wrist) angles, and boundary errors in postural binning. While this method demonstrated potential validity, further improvements should be made with respect to photo-collection and other protocols for remotely-based ROSA assessments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

A guide to evaluating linkage quality for the analysis of linked data.

PubMed

Harron, Katie L; Doidge, James C; Knight, Hannah E; Gilbert, Ruth E; Goldstein, Harvey; Cromwell, David A; van der Meulen, Jan H

2017-10-01

Linked datasets are an important resource for epidemiological and clinical studies, but linkage error can lead to biased results. For data security reasons, linkage of personal identifiers is often performed by a third party, making it difficult for researchers to assess the quality of the linked dataset in the context of specific research questions. This is compounded by a lack of guidance on how to determine the potential impact of linkage error. We describe how linkage quality can be evaluated and provide widely applicable guidance for both data providers and researchers. Using an illustrative example of a linked dataset of maternal and baby hospital records, we demonstrate three approaches for evaluating linkage quality: applying the linkage algorithm to a subset of gold standard data to quantify linkage error; comparing characteristics of linked and unlinked data to identify potential sources of bias; and evaluating the sensitivity of results to changes in the linkage procedure. These approaches can inform our understanding of the potential impact of linkage error and provide an opportunity to select the most appropriate linkage procedure for a specific analysis. Evaluating linkage quality in this way will improve the quality and transparency of epidemiological and clinical research using linked data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Accuracy analysis and design of A3 parallel spindle head

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Yanbing; Zhang, Biao; Sun, Yupeng; Zhang, Yuan

2016-03-01

As functional components of machine tools, parallel mechanisms are widely used in high efficiency machining of aviation components, and accuracy is one of the critical technical indexes. Lots of researchers have focused on the accuracy problem of parallel mechanisms, but in terms of controlling the errors and improving the accuracy in the stage of design and manufacturing, further efforts are required. Aiming at the accuracy design of a 3-DOF parallel spindle head(A3 head), its error model, sensitivity analysis and tolerance allocation are investigated. Based on the inverse kinematic analysis, the error model of A3 head is established by using the first-order perturbation theory and vector chain method. According to the mapping property of motion and constraint Jacobian matrix, the compensatable and uncompensatable error sources which affect the accuracy in the end-effector are separated. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is performed on the uncompensatable error sources. The sensitivity probabilistic model is established and the global sensitivity index is proposed to analyze the influence of the uncompensatable error sources on the accuracy in the end-effector of the mechanism. The results show that orientation error sources have bigger effect on the accuracy in the end-effector. Based upon the sensitivity analysis results, the tolerance design is converted into the issue of nonlinearly constrained optimization with the manufacturing cost minimum being the optimization objective. By utilizing the genetic algorithm, the allocation of the tolerances on each component is finally determined. According to the tolerance allocation results, the tolerance ranges of ten kinds of geometric error sources are obtained. These research achievements can provide fundamental guidelines for component manufacturing and assembly of this kind of parallel mechanisms.

Measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution with correlated source-light-intensity errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Yu, Zong-Wen; Wang, Xiang-Bin

2018-04-01

We present an analysis for measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution with correlated source-light-intensity errors. Numerical results show that the results here can greatly improve the key rate especially with large intensity fluctuations and channel attenuation compared with prior results if the intensity fluctuations of different sources are correlated.

The impact of reflectivity correction and conversion methods to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-05-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands. For most of the country this led to over 15 hours of near-continuous precipitation, which resulted in total event accumulations exceeding 150 mm in the eastern part of the Netherlands. Such accumulations belong to the largest sums ever recorded in this country and gave rise to local flooding. Measuring precipitation by weather radar within such mesoscale convective systems is known to be a challenge, since measurements are affected by multiple sources of error. For the current event the operational weather radar rainfall product only estimated about 30% of the actual amount of precipitation as measured by rain gauges. In the current presentation we will try to identify what gave rise to such large underestimations. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two different groups: 1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements taken, and 2) errors related to the conversion of reflectivity values in rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates. To correct for the first group of errors, the quality of the weather radar reflectivity data was improved by successively correcting for 1) clutter and anomalous propagation, 2) radar calibration, 3) wet radome attenuation, 4) signal attenuation and 5) the vertical profile of reflectivity. Such consistent corrections are generally not performed by operational meteorological services. Results show a large improvement in the quality of the precipitation data, however still only ~65% of the actual observed accumulations was estimated. To further improve the quality of the precipitation estimates, the second group of errors are corrected for by making use of disdrometer measurements taken in close vicinity of the radar. Based on these data the parameters of a normalized drop size distribution are estimated for the total event as well as for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined). These are then used to obtain coherent parameter sets for the radar reflectivity-rainfall rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-attenuation (Z-k) relationship, specifically applicable for this event. By applying a single parameter set to correct for both sources of errors, the quality of the rainfall product improves further, leading to >80% of the observed accumulations. However, by differentiating between precipitation type no better results are obtained as when using the operational relationships. This leads to the question: how representative are local disdrometer observations to correct large scale weather radar measurements? In order to tackle this question a Monte Carlo approach was used to generate >10000 sets of the normalized dropsize distribution parameters and to assess their impact on the estimated precipitation amounts. Results show that a large number of parameter sets result in improved precipitation estimated by the weather radar closely resembling observations. However, these optimal sets vary considerably as compared to those obtained from the local disdrometer measurements.

Advanced Water Vapor Lidar Detection System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elsayed-Ali, Hani

1998-01-01

In the present water vapor lidar system, the detected signal is sent over long cables to a waveform digitizer in a CAMAC crate. This has the disadvantage of transmitting analog signals for a relatively long distance, which is subjected to pickup noise, leading to a decrease in the signal to noise ratio. Generally, errors in the measurement of water vapor with the DIAL method arise from both random and systematic sources. Systematic errors in DIAL measurements are caused by both atmospheric and instrumentation effects. The selection of the on-line alexandrite laser with a narrow linewidth, suitable intensity and high spectral purity, and its operation at the center of the water vapor lines, ensures minimum influence in the DIAL measurement that are caused by the laser spectral distribution and avoid system overloads. Random errors are caused by noise in the detected signal. Variability of the photon statistics in the lidar return signal, noise resulting from detector dark current, and noise in the background signal are the main sources of random error. This type of error can be minimized by maximizing the signal to noise ratio. The increase in the signal to noise ratio can be achieved by several ways. One way is to increase the laser pulse energy, by increasing its amplitude or the pulse repetition rate. Another way, is to use a detector system with higher quantum efficiency and lower noise, on the other hand, the selection of a narrow band optical filter that rejects most of the day background light and retains high optical efficiency is an important issue. Following acquisition of the lidar data, we minimize random errors in the DIAL measurement by averaging the data, but this will result in the reduction of the vertical and horizontal resolutions. Thus, a trade off is necessary to achieve a balance between the spatial resolution and the measurement precision. Therefore, the main goal of this research effort is to increase the signal to noise ratio by a factor of 10 over the current system, using a newly evaluated, very low noise avalanche photo diode detector and constructing a 10 MHz waveform digitizer which will replace the current CAMAC system.

Contribution of long-term accounting for raindrop size distribution variations on quantitative precipitation estimation by weather radar: Disdrometers vs parameter optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Leijnse, H.

2015-12-01

Volumetric weather radars provide information on the characteristics of precipitation at high spatial and temporal resolution. Unfortunately, rainfall measurements by radar are affected by multiple error sources, which can be subdivided into two main groups: 1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, vertical profile of reflectivity, attenuation, etc.), and 2) errors related to the conversion of the observed reflectivity (Z) values into rainfall intensity (R) and specific attenuation (k). Until the recent wide-scale implementation of dual-polarimetric radar, this second group of errors received relatively little attention, focusing predominantly on precipitation type-dependent Z-R and Z-k relations. The current work accounts for the impact of variations of the drop size distribution (DSD) on the radar QPE performance. We propose to link the parameters of the Z-R and Z-k relations directly to those of the normalized gamma DSD. The benefit of this procedure is that it reduces the number of unknown parameters. In this work, the DSD parameters are obtained using 1) surface observations from a Parsivel and Thies LPM disdrometer, and 2) a Monte Carlo optimization procedure using surface rain gauge observations. The impact of both approaches for a given precipitation type is assessed for 45 days of summertime precipitation observed within The Netherlands. Accounting for DSD variations using disdrometer observations leads to an improved radar QPE product as compared to applying climatological Z-R and Z-k relations. However, overall precipitation intensities are still underestimated. This underestimation is expected to result from unaccounted errors (e.g. transmitter calibration, erroneous identification of precipitation as clutter, overshooting and small-scale variability). In case the DSD parameters are optimized, the performance of the radar is further improved, resulting in the best performance of the radar QPE product. However, the resulting optimal Z-R and Z-k relations are considerably different from those obtained from disdrometer observations. As such, the best microphysical parameter set results in a minimization of the overall bias, which besides accounting for DSD variations also corrects for the impact of additional error sources.

The impact of work-related stress on medication errors in Eastern Region Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Salam, Abdul; Segal, David M; Abu-Helalah, Munir Ahmad; Gutierrez, Mary Lou; Joosub, Imran; Ahmed, Wasim; Bibi, Rubina; Clarke, Elizabeth; Qarni, Ali Ahmed Al

2018-05-07

To examine the relationship between overall level and source-specific work-related stressors on medication errors rate. A cross-sectional study examined the relationship between overall levels of stress, 25 source-specific work-related stressors and medication error rate based on documented incident reports in Saudi Arabia (SA) hospital, using secondary databases. King Abdulaziz Hospital in Al-Ahsa, Eastern Region, SA. Two hundred and sixty-nine healthcare professionals (HCPs). The odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for HCPs documented incident report medication errors and self-reported sources of Job Stress Survey. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified source-specific work-related stress as significantly associated with HCPs who made at least one medication error per month (P < 0.05), including disruption to home life, pressure to meet deadlines, difficulties with colleagues, excessive workload, income over 10 000 riyals and compulsory night/weekend call duties either some or all of the time. Although not statistically significant, HCPs who reported overall stress were two times more likely to make at least one medication error per month than non-stressed HCPs (OR: 1.95, P = 0.081). This is the first study to use documented incident reports for medication errors rather than self-report to evaluate the level of stress-related medication errors in SA HCPs. Job demands, such as social stressors (home life disruption, difficulties with colleagues), time pressures, structural determinants (compulsory night/weekend call duties) and higher income, were significantly associated with medication errors whereas overall stress revealed a 2-fold higher trend.

Quantifying Data Quality for Clinical Trials Using Electronic Data Capture

PubMed Central

Nahm, Meredith L.; Pieper, Carl F.; Cunningham, Maureen M.

2008-01-01

Background Historically, only partial assessments of data quality have been performed in clinical trials, for which the most common method of measuring database error rates has been to compare the case report form (CRF) to database entries and count discrepancies. Importantly, errors arising from medical record abstraction and transcription are rarely evaluated as part of such quality assessments. Electronic Data Capture (EDC) technology has had a further impact, as paper CRFs typically leveraged for quality measurement are not used in EDC processes. Methods and Principal Findings The National Institute on Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network has developed, implemented, and evaluated methodology for holistically assessing data quality on EDC trials. We characterize the average source-to-database error rate (14.3 errors per 10,000 fields) for the first year of use of the new evaluation method. This error rate was significantly lower than the average of published error rates for source-to-database audits, and was similar to CRF-to-database error rates reported in the published literature. We attribute this largely to an absence of medical record abstraction on the trials we examined, and to an outpatient setting characterized by less acute patient conditions. Conclusions Historically, medical record abstraction is the most significant source of error by an order of magnitude, and should be measured and managed during the course of clinical trials. Source-to-database error rates are highly dependent on the amount of structured data collection in the clinical setting and on the complexity of the medical record, dependencies that should be considered when developing data quality benchmarks. PMID:18725958

Multi-dimensional grating interferometer based on fibre-fed measurement heads arranged in Littrow configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šiaudinytė, Lauryna; Molnar, Gabor; Köning, Rainer; Flügge, Jens

2018-05-01

Industrial application versatility of interferometric encoders increases the urge to measure several degrees of freedom. A novel grating interferometer containing a commercially available, minimized Michelson interferometer and three fibre-fed measurement heads is presented in this paper. Moreover, the arrangement is designed for simultaneous displacement measurements in two perpendicular planes. In the proposed setup, beam splitters are located in the fibre heads, therefore the grating is separated from the light source and the photo detector, which influence measurement results by generated heat. The operating principle of the proposed system as well as error sources influencing measurement results are discussed in this paper. Further, the benefits and shortcomings of the setup are presented. A simple Littrow-configuration-based design leads to a compact-size interferometric encoder suitable for multidimensional measurements.

Comparing Parameter Estimation Techniques for an Electrical Power Transformer Oil Temperature Prediction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry

1999-01-01

This paper examines various sources of error in MIT's improved top oil temperature rise over ambient temperature model and estimation process. The sources of error are the current parameter estimation technique, quantization noise, and post-processing of the transformer data. Results from this paper will show that an output error parameter estimation technique should be selected to replace the current least squares estimation technique. The output error technique obtained accurate predictions of transformer behavior, revealed the best error covariance, obtained consistent parameter estimates, and provided for valid and sensible parameters. This paper will also show that the output error technique should be used to minimize errors attributed to post-processing (decimation) of the transformer data. Models used in this paper are validated using data from a large transformer in service.

Accuracy Study of a Robotic System for MRI-guided Prostate Needle Placement

PubMed Central

Seifabadi, Reza; Cho, Nathan BJ.; Song, Sang-Eun; Tokuda, Junichi; Hata, Nobuhiko; Tempany, Clare M.; Fichtinger, Gabor; Iordachita, Iulian

2013-01-01

Background Accurate needle placement is the first concern in percutaneous MRI-guided prostate interventions. In this phantom study, different sources contributing to the overall needle placement error of a MRI-guided robot for prostate biopsy have been identified, quantified, and minimized to the possible extent. Methods and Materials The overall needle placement error of the system was evaluated in a prostate phantom. This error was broken into two parts: the error associated with the robotic system (called before-insertion error) and the error associated with needle-tissue interaction (called due-to-insertion error). The before-insertion error was measured directly in a soft phantom and different sources contributing into this part were identified and quantified. A calibration methodology was developed to minimize the 4-DOF manipulator’s error. The due-to-insertion error was indirectly approximated by comparing the overall error and the before-insertion error. The effect of sterilization on the manipulator’s accuracy and repeatability was also studied. Results The average overall system error in phantom study was 2.5 mm (STD=1.1mm). The average robotic system error in super soft phantom was 1.3 mm (STD=0.7 mm). Assuming orthogonal error components, the needle-tissue interaction error was approximated to be 2.13 mm thus having larger contribution to the overall error. The average susceptibility artifact shift was 0.2 mm. The manipulator’s targeting accuracy was 0.71 mm (STD=0.21mm) after robot calibration. The robot’s repeatability was 0.13 mm. Sterilization had no noticeable influence on the robot’s accuracy and repeatability. Conclusions The experimental methodology presented in this paper may help researchers to identify, quantify, and minimize different sources contributing into the overall needle placement error of an MRI-guided robotic system for prostate needle placement. In the robotic system analyzed here, the overall error of the studied system remained within the acceptable range. PMID:22678990

Accuracy study of a robotic system for MRI-guided prostate needle placement.

PubMed

Seifabadi, Reza; Cho, Nathan B J; Song, Sang-Eun; Tokuda, Junichi; Hata, Nobuhiko; Tempany, Clare M; Fichtinger, Gabor; Iordachita, Iulian

2013-09-01

Accurate needle placement is the first concern in percutaneous MRI-guided prostate interventions. In this phantom study, different sources contributing to the overall needle placement error of a MRI-guided robot for prostate biopsy have been identified, quantified and minimized to the possible extent. The overall needle placement error of the system was evaluated in a prostate phantom. This error was broken into two parts: the error associated with the robotic system (called 'before-insertion error') and the error associated with needle-tissue interaction (called 'due-to-insertion error'). Before-insertion error was measured directly in a soft phantom and different sources contributing into this part were identified and quantified. A calibration methodology was developed to minimize the 4-DOF manipulator's error. The due-to-insertion error was indirectly approximated by comparing the overall error and the before-insertion error. The effect of sterilization on the manipulator's accuracy and repeatability was also studied. The average overall system error in the phantom study was 2.5 mm (STD = 1.1 mm). The average robotic system error in the Super Soft plastic phantom was 1.3 mm (STD = 0.7 mm). Assuming orthogonal error components, the needle-tissue interaction error was found to be approximately 2.13 mm, thus making a larger contribution to the overall error. The average susceptibility artifact shift was 0.2 mm. The manipulator's targeting accuracy was 0.71 mm (STD = 0.21 mm) after robot calibration. The robot's repeatability was 0.13 mm. Sterilization had no noticeable influence on the robot's accuracy and repeatability. The experimental methodology presented in this paper may help researchers to identify, quantify and minimize different sources contributing into the overall needle placement error of an MRI-guided robotic system for prostate needle placement. In the robotic system analysed here, the overall error of the studied system remained within the acceptable range. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Deep Kalman Filter: Simultaneous Multi-Sensor Integration and Modelling; A GNSS/IMU Case Study

PubMed Central

Hosseinyalamdary, Siavash

2018-01-01

Bayes filters, such as the Kalman and particle filters, have been used in sensor fusion to integrate two sources of information and obtain the best estimate of unknowns. The efficient integration of multiple sensors requires deep knowledge of their error sources. Some sensors, such as Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), have complicated error sources. Therefore, IMU error modelling and the efficient integration of IMU and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations has remained a challenge. In this paper, we developed deep Kalman filter to model and remove IMU errors and, consequently, improve the accuracy of IMU positioning. To achieve this, we added a modelling step to the prediction and update steps of the Kalman filter, so that the IMU error model is learned during integration. The results showed our deep Kalman filter outperformed the conventional Kalman filter and reached a higher level of accuracy. PMID:29695119

Deep Kalman Filter: Simultaneous Multi-Sensor Integration and Modelling; A GNSS/IMU Case Study.

PubMed

Hosseinyalamdary, Siavash

2018-04-24

Bayes filters, such as the Kalman and particle filters, have been used in sensor fusion to integrate two sources of information and obtain the best estimate of unknowns. The efficient integration of multiple sensors requires deep knowledge of their error sources. Some sensors, such as Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), have complicated error sources. Therefore, IMU error modelling and the efficient integration of IMU and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations has remained a challenge. In this paper, we developed deep Kalman filter to model and remove IMU errors and, consequently, improve the accuracy of IMU positioning. To achieve this, we added a modelling step to the prediction and update steps of the Kalman filter, so that the IMU error model is learned during integration. The results showed our deep Kalman filter outperformed the conventional Kalman filter and reached a higher level of accuracy.

Total absorption cross sections of several gases of aeronomic interest at 584 A.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, W. L.; Loewenstein, M.

1972-01-01

Total photoabsorption cross sections have been measured at 584.3 A for N2, O2, Ar, CO2, CO, NO, N2O, NH3, CH4, H2, and H2S. A monochromator was used to isolate the He I 584 line produced in a helium resonance lamp, and thin aluminum filters were used as absorption cell windows, thereby eliminating possible errors associated with the use of undispersed radiation or windowless cells. Sources of error are examined, and limits of uncertainty are given. Previous relevant cross-sectional measurements and possible error sources are reviewed. Wall adsorption as a source of error in cross-sectional measurements has not previously been considered and is discussed briefly.

Source localization (LORETA) of the error-related-negativity (ERN/Ne) and positivity (Pe).

PubMed

Herrmann, Martin J; Römmler, Josefine; Ehlis, Ann-Christine; Heidrich, Anke; Fallgatter, Andreas J

2004-07-01

We investigated error processing of 39 subjects engaging the Eriksen flanker task. In all 39 subjects a pronounced negative deflection (ERN/Ne) and a later positive component (Pe) were observed after incorrect as compared to correct responses. The neural sources of both components were analyzed using LORETA source localization. For the negative component (ERN/Ne) we found significantly higher brain electrical activity in medial prefrontal areas for incorrect responses, whereas the positive component (Pe) was localized nearby but more rostral within the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Thus, different neural generators were found for the ERN/Ne and the Pe, which further supports the notion that both error-related components represent different aspects of error processing.

Uncertainty reduction in intensity modulated proton therapy by inverse Monte Carlo treatment planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morávek, Zdenek; Rickhey, Mark; Hartmann, Matthias; Bogner, Ludwig

2009-08-01

Treatment plans for intensity-modulated proton therapy may be sensitive to some sources of uncertainty. One source is correlated with approximations of the algorithms applied in the treatment planning system and another one depends on how robust the optimization is with regard to intra-fractional tissue movements. The irradiated dose distribution may substantially deteriorate from the planning when systematic errors occur in the dose algorithm. This can influence proton ranges and lead to improper modeling of the Braggpeak degradation in heterogeneous structures or particle scatter or the nuclear interaction part. Additionally, systematic errors influence the optimization process, which leads to the convergence error. Uncertainties with regard to organ movements are related to the robustness of a chosen beam setup to tissue movements on irradiation. We present the inverse Monte Carlo treatment planning system IKO for protons (IKO-P), which tries to minimize the errors described above to a large extent. Additionally, robust planning is introduced by beam angle optimization according to an objective function penalizing paths representing strongly longitudinal and transversal tissue heterogeneities. The same score function is applied to optimize spot planning by the selection of a robust choice of spots. As spots can be positioned on different energy grids or on geometric grids with different space filling factors, a variety of grids were used to investigate the influence on the spot-weight distribution as a result of optimization. A tighter distribution of spot weights was assumed to result in a more robust plan with respect to movements. IKO-P is described in detail and demonstrated on a test case and a lung cancer case as well. Different options of spot planning and grid types are evaluated, yielding a superior plan quality with dose delivery to the spots from all beam directions over optimized beam directions. This option shows a tighter spot-weight distribution and should therefore be less sensitive to movements compared to optimized directions. But accepting a slight loss in plan quality, the latter choice could potentially improve robustness even further by accepting only spots from the most proper direction. The choice of a geometric grid instead of an energy grid for spot positioning has only a minor influence on the plan quality, at least for the investigated lung case.

Sources of Error in Substance Use Prevalence Surveys

PubMed Central

Johnson, Timothy P.

2014-01-01

Population-based estimates of substance use patterns have been regularly reported now for several decades. Concerns with the quality of the survey methodologies employed to produce those estimates date back almost as far. Those concerns have led to a considerable body of research specifically focused on understanding the nature and consequences of survey-based errors in substance use epidemiology. This paper reviews and summarizes that empirical research by organizing it within a total survey error model framework that considers multiple types of representation and measurement errors. Gaps in our knowledge of error sources in substance use surveys and areas needing future research are also identified. PMID:27437511

Consequences of Secondary Calibrations on Divergence Time Estimates.

PubMed

Schenk, John J

2016-01-01

Secondary calibrations (calibrations based on the results of previous molecular dating studies) are commonly applied in divergence time analyses in groups that lack fossil data; however, the consequences of applying secondary calibrations in a relaxed-clock approach are not fully understood. I tested whether applying the posterior estimate from a primary study as a prior distribution in a secondary study results in consistent age and uncertainty estimates. I compared age estimates from simulations with 100 randomly replicated secondary trees. On average, the 95% credible intervals of node ages for secondary estimates were significantly younger and narrower than primary estimates. The primary and secondary age estimates were significantly different in 97% of the replicates after Bonferroni corrections. Greater error in magnitude was associated with deeper than shallower nodes, but the opposite was found when standardized by median node age, and a significant positive relationship was determined between the number of tips/age of secondary trees and the total amount of error. When two secondary calibrated nodes were analyzed, estimates remained significantly different, and although the minimum and median estimates were associated with less error, maximum age estimates and credible interval widths had greater error. The shape of the prior also influenced error, in which applying a normal, rather than uniform, prior distribution resulted in greater error. Secondary calibrations, in summary, lead to a false impression of precision and the distribution of age estimates shift away from those that would be inferred by the primary analysis. These results suggest that secondary calibrations should not be applied as the only source of calibration in divergence time analyses that test time-dependent hypotheses until the additional error associated with secondary calibrations is more properly modeled to take into account increased uncertainty in age estimates.

A Modeling Framework for Optimal Computational Resource Allocation Estimation: Considering the Trade-offs between Physical Resolutions, Uncertainty and Computational Costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moslehi, M.; de Barros, F.; Rajagopal, R.

2014-12-01

Hydrogeological models that represent flow and transport in subsurface domains are usually large-scale with excessive computational complexity and uncertain characteristics. Uncertainty quantification for predicting flow and transport in heterogeneous formations often entails utilizing a numerical Monte Carlo framework, which repeatedly simulates the model according to a random field representing hydrogeological characteristics of the field. The physical resolution (e.g. grid resolution associated with the physical space) for the simulation is customarily chosen based on recommendations in the literature, independent of the number of Monte Carlo realizations. This practice may lead to either excessive computational burden or inaccurate solutions. We propose an optimization-based methodology that considers the trade-off between the following conflicting objectives: time associated with computational costs, statistical convergence of the model predictions and physical errors corresponding to numerical grid resolution. In this research, we optimally allocate computational resources by developing a modeling framework for the overall error based on a joint statistical and numerical analysis and optimizing the error model subject to a given computational constraint. The derived expression for the overall error explicitly takes into account the joint dependence between the discretization error of the physical space and the statistical error associated with Monte Carlo realizations. The accuracy of the proposed framework is verified in this study by applying it to several computationally extensive examples. Having this framework at hand aims hydrogeologists to achieve the optimum physical and statistical resolutions to minimize the error with a given computational budget. Moreover, the influence of the available computational resources and the geometric properties of the contaminant source zone on the optimum resolutions are investigated. We conclude that the computational cost associated with optimal allocation can be substantially reduced compared with prevalent recommendations in the literature.

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation.

First order error corrections in common introductory physics experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckey, Jacob; Baker, Andrew; Aravind, Vasudeva; Clarion Team

As a part of introductory physics courses, students perform different standard lab experiments. Almost all of these experiments are prone to errors owing to factors like friction, misalignment of equipment, air drag, etc. Usually these types of errors are ignored by students and not much thought is paid to the source of these errors. However, paying attention to these factors that give rise to errors help students make better physics models and understand physical phenomena behind experiments in more detail. In this work, we explore common causes of errors in introductory physics experiment and suggest changes that will mitigate the errors, or suggest models that take the sources of these errors into consideration. This work helps students build better and refined physical models and understand physics concepts in greater detail. We thank Clarion University undergraduate student grant for financial support involving this project.

Accounting for Berkson and Classical Measurement Error in Radon Exposure Using a Bayesian Structural Approach in the Analysis of Lung Cancer Mortality in the French Cohort of Uranium Miners.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Sabine; Rage, Estelle; Laurier, Dominique; Laroche, Pierre; Guihenneuc, Chantal; Ancelet, Sophie

2017-02-01

Many occupational cohort studies on underground miners have demonstrated that radon exposure is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer mortality. However, despite the deleterious consequences of exposure measurement error on statistical inference, these analyses traditionally do not account for exposure uncertainty. This might be due to the challenging nature of measurement error resulting from imperfect surrogate measures of radon exposure. Indeed, we are typically faced with exposure uncertainty in a time-varying exposure variable where both the type and the magnitude of error may depend on period of exposure. To address the challenge of accounting for multiplicative and heteroscedastic measurement error that may be of Berkson or classical nature, depending on the year of exposure, we opted for a Bayesian structural approach, which is arguably the most flexible method to account for uncertainty in exposure assessment. We assessed the association between occupational radon exposure and lung cancer mortality in the French cohort of uranium miners and found the impact of uncorrelated multiplicative measurement error to be of marginal importance. However, our findings indicate that the retrospective nature of exposure assessment that occurred in the earliest years of mining of this cohort as well as many other cohorts of underground miners might lead to an attenuation of the exposure-risk relationship. More research is needed to address further uncertainties in the calculation of lung dose, since this step will likely introduce important sources of shared uncertainty.

Prescription errors in the National Health Services, time to change practice.

PubMed

Hamid, Tahir; Harper, Luke; Rose, Samman; Petkar, Sanjive; Fienman, Richard; Athar, Syed M; Cushley, Michael

2016-02-01

Medication error is a major source of iatrogenic illness. Error in prescription is the most common form of avoidable medication error. We present our study, performed at two, UK, National Health Services Hospitals. The prescription practice of junior doctor's working on general medical and surgical wards in National Health Service District General and University Teaching Hospitals in the UK was reviewed. Practice was assessed against standard hospital prescription charts, developed in accordance with local pharmacy guidance. A total of 407 prescription charts were reviewed in both initial audit and re-audit one year later. In the District General Hospital, documentation of allergy, weight and capital-letter prescription was achieved in 31, 5 and 40% of charts, respectively. Forty-nine per cent of discontinued prescriptions were properly deleted and signed for. In re-audit significant improvement was noted in documentation of the patient's name 100%, gender 54%, allergy status 51% and use of generic drug name 71%. Similarly, in the University Teaching Hospital, 82, 63 and 65% compliance was achieved in documentation of age, generic drug name prescription and capital-letter prescription, respectively. Prescription practice was reassessed one year later after recommendations and changes in the prescription practice, leading to significant improvement in documentation of unit number, generic drug name prescription, insulin prescription and documentation of the patient's ward. Prescription error remains an important, modifiable form of medical error, which may be rectified by introducing multidisciplinary assessment of practice, nationwide standardised prescription charts and revision of current prescribing clinical training. © The Author(s) 2016.

A methodology for translating positional error into measures of attribute error, and combining the two error sources

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis Flather; Denis Dean

2006-01-01

This paper summarizes our efforts to investigate the nature, behavior, and implications of positional error and attribute error in spatiotemporal datasets. Estimating the combined influence of these errors on map analysis has been hindered by the fact that these two error types are traditionally expressed in different units (distance units, and categorical units,...

Fluorescence errors in integrating sphere measurements of remote phosphor type LED light sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppens, A.; Zong, Y.; Podobedov, V. B.; Nadal, M. E.; Hanselaer, P.; Ohno, Y.

2011-05-01

The relative spectral radiant flux error caused by phosphor fluorescence during integrating sphere measurements is investigated both theoretically and experimentally. Integrating sphere and goniophotometer measurements are compared and used for model validation, while a case study provides additional clarification. Criteria for reducing fluorescence errors to a degree of negligibility as well as a fluorescence error correction method based on simple matrix algebra are presented. Only remote phosphor type LED light sources are studied because of their large phosphor surfaces and high application potential in general lighting.

Probable errors in width distributions of sea ice leads measured along a transect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Key, J.; Peckham, S.

1991-01-01

The degree of error expected in the measurement of widths of sea ice leads along a single transect are examined in a probabilistic sense under assumed orientation and width distributions, where both isotropic and anisotropic lead orientations are examined. Methods are developed for estimating the distribution of 'actual' widths (measured perpendicular to the local lead orientation) knowing the 'apparent' width distribution (measured along the transect), and vice versa. The distribution of errors, defined as the difference between the actual and apparent lead width, can be estimated from the two width distributions, and all moments of this distribution can be determined. The problem is illustrated with Landsat imagery and the procedure is applied to a submarine sonar transect. Results are determined for a range of geometries, and indicate the importance of orientation information if data sampled along a transect are to be used for the description of lead geometries. While the application here is to sea ice leads, the methodology can be applied to measurements of any linear feature.

3DXRD at the Advanced Photon Source: Orientation Mapping and Deformation Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

statistics in the same sample (Hefferan et al. (2010)). This low orientation uncertainty or error bar might be surprising at first since we do measurements...may be a combination of noise and real gradients. Some of the intra‐ granular  disorder  in  (b)  should  be  interpreted  as  statistical   and  only...cooling (AC), but are not present after ice water quenching (IWQ). The presence of SRO domains is known to lead to planar slip bands during tensile

Atomic force microscopy analysis of human cornea surface after UV (λ=266 nm) laser irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spyratou, E.; Makropoulou, M.; Moutsouris, K.; Bacharis, C.; Serafetinides, A. A.

2009-07-01

Efficient cornea reshaping by laser irradiation for correcting refractive errors is still a major issue of interest and study. Although the excimer laser wavelength of 193 nm is generally recognized as successful in ablating corneal tissue for myopia correction, complications in excimer refractive surgery leads to alternative laser sources and methods for efficient cornea treatment. In this work, ablation experiments of human donor cornea flaps were conducted with the 4th harmonic of an Nd:YAG laser, with different laser pulses. AFM analysis was performed for examination of the ablated cornea flap morphology and surface roughness.

Coupled optics reconstruction from TBT data using MAD-X

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexahin, Y.; Gianfelice-Wendt, E.; /Fermilab

2007-06-01

Turn-by-turn BPM data provide immediate information on the coupled optics functions at BPM locations. In the case of small deviations from the known (design) uncoupled optics some cognizance of the sources of perturbation, BPM calibration errors and tilts can also be inferred without detailed lattice modeling. In practical situations, however, fitting the lattice model with the help of some optics code would lead to more reliable results. We present an algorithm for coupled optics reconstruction from TBT data on the basis of MAD-X and give examples of its application for the Fermilab Tevatron accelerator.

Realtime mitigation of GPS SA errors using Loran-C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braasch, Soo Y.

1994-01-01

The hybrid use of Loran-C with the Global Positioning System (GPS) was shown capable of providing a sole-means of enroute air radionavigation. By allowing pilots to fly direct to their destinations, use of this system is resulting in significant time savings and therefore fuel savings as well. However, a major error source limiting the accuracy of GPS is the intentional degradation of the GPS signal known as Selective Availability (SA). SA-induced position errors are highly correlated and far exceed all other error sources (horizontal position error: 100 meters, 95 percent). Realtime mitigation of SA errors from the position solution is highly desirable. How that can be achieved is discussed. The stability of Loran-C signals is exploited to reduce SA errors. The theory behind this technique is discussed and results using bench and flight data are given.

Investigating error structure of shuttle radar topography mission elevation data product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becek, Kazimierz

2008-08-01

An attempt was made to experimentally assess the instrumental component of error of the C-band SRTM (SRTM). This was achieved by comparing elevation data of 302 runways from airports all over the world with the shuttle radar topography mission data product (SRTM). It was found that the rms of the instrumental error is about +/-1.55 m. Modeling of the remaining SRTM error sources, including terrain relief and pixel size, shows that downsampling from 30 m to 90 m (1 to 3 arc-sec pixels) worsened SRTM vertical accuracy threefold. It is suspected that the proximity of large metallic objects is a source of large SRTM errors. The achieved error estimates allow a pixel-based accuracy assessment of the SRTM elevation data product to be constructed. Vegetation-induced errors were not considered in this work.

Medication errors: definitions and classification

PubMed Central

Aronson, Jeffrey K

2009-01-01

To understand medication errors and to identify preventive strategies, we need to classify them and define the terms that describe them. The four main approaches to defining technical terms consider etymology, usage, previous definitions, and the Ramsey–Lewis method (based on an understanding of theory and practice). A medication error is ‘a failure in the treatment process that leads to, or has the potential to lead to, harm to the patient’. Prescribing faults, a subset of medication errors, should be distinguished from prescription errors. A prescribing fault is ‘a failure in the prescribing [decision-making] process that leads to, or has the potential to lead to, harm to the patient’. The converse of this, ‘balanced prescribing’ is ‘the use of a medicine that is appropriate to the patient's condition and, within the limits created by the uncertainty that attends therapeutic decisions, in a dosage regimen that optimizes the balance of benefit to harm’. This excludes all forms of prescribing faults, such as irrational, inappropriate, and ineffective prescribing, underprescribing and overprescribing. A prescription error is ‘a failure in the prescription writing process that results in a wrong instruction about one or more of the normal features of a prescription’. The ‘normal features’ include the identity of the recipient, the identity of the drug, the formulation, dose, route, timing, frequency, and duration of administration. Medication errors can be classified, invoking psychological theory, as knowledge-based mistakes, rule-based mistakes, action-based slips, and memory-based lapses. This classification informs preventive strategies. PMID:19594526

Sensitivity of Global Methane Bayesian Inversion to Surface Observation Data Sets and Chemical-Transport Model Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lew, E. J.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Karmakar, S.; Rice, A. L.; Khalil, A. K.

2017-12-01

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. In efforts to control emissions, a careful examination of the methane budget and source strengths is required. To determine methane surface fluxes, Bayesian methods are often used to provide top-down constraints. Inverse modeling derives unknown fluxes using observed methane concentrations, a chemical transport model (CTM) and prior information. The Bayesian inversion reduces prior flux uncertainties by exploiting information content in the data. While the Bayesian formalism produces internal error estimates of source fluxes, systematic or external errors that arise from user choices in the inversion scheme are often much larger. Here we examine model sensitivity and uncertainty of our inversion under different observation data sets and CTM grid resolution. We compare posterior surface fluxes using the data product GLOBALVIEW-CH4 against the event-level molar mixing ratio data available from NOAA. GLOBALVIEW-CH4 is a collection of CH4 concentration estimates from 221 sites, collected by 12 laboratories, that have been interpolated and extracted to provide weekly records from 1984-2008. Differently, the event-level NOAA data records methane mixing ratios field measurements from 102 sites, containing sampling frequency irregularities and gaps in time. Furthermore, the sampling platform types used by the data sets may influence the posterior flux estimates, namely fixed surface, tower, ship and aircraft sites. To explore the sensitivity of the posterior surface fluxes to the observation network geometry, inversions composed of all sites, only aircraft, only ship, only tower and only fixed surface sites, are performed and compared. Also, we investigate the sensitivity of the error reduction associated with the resolution of the GEOS-Chem simulation (4°×5° vs 2°×2.5°) used to calculate the response matrix. Using a higher resolution grid decreased the model-data error at most sites, thereby increasing the information at that site. These different inversions—event-level and interpolated data, higher and lower resolutions—are compared using an ensemble of descriptive and comparative statistics. Analyzing the sensitivity of the inverse model leads to more accurate estimates of the methane source category uncertainty.

Outpatient CPOE orders discontinued due to 'erroneous entry': prospective survey of prescribers' explanations for errors.

PubMed

Hickman, Thu-Trang T; Quist, Arbor Jessica Lauren; Salazar, Alejandra; Amato, Mary G; Wright, Adam; Volk, Lynn A; Bates, David W; Schiff, Gordon

2018-04-01

Computerised prescriber order entry (CPOE) systems users often discontinue medications because the initial order was erroneous. To elucidate error types by querying prescribers about their reasons for discontinuing outpatient medication orders that they had self-identified as erroneous. During a nearly 3 year retrospective data collection period, we identified 57 972 drugs discontinued with the reason 'Error (erroneous entry)." Because chart reviews revealed limited information about these errors, we prospectively studied consecutive, discontinued erroneous orders by querying prescribers in near-real-time to learn more about the erroneous orders. From January 2014 to April 2014, we prospectively emailed prescribers about outpatient drug orders that they had discontinued due to erroneous initial order entry. Of 2 50 806 medication orders in these 4 months, 1133 (0.45%) of these were discontinued due to error. From these 1133, we emailed 542 unique prescribers to ask about their reason(s) for discontinuing these mediation orders in error. We received 312 responses (58% response rate). We categorised these responses using a previously published taxonomy. The top reasons for these discontinued erroneous orders included: medication ordered for wrong patient (27.8%, n=60); wrong drug ordered (18.5%, n=40); and duplicate order placed (14.4%, n=31). Other common discontinued erroneous orders related to drug dosage and formulation (eg, extended release versus not). Oxycodone (3%) was the most frequent drug discontinued error. Drugs are not infrequently discontinued 'in error.' Wrong patient and wrong drug errors constitute the leading types of erroneous prescriptions recognised and discontinued by prescribers. Data regarding erroneous medication entries represent an important source of intelligence about how CPOE systems are functioning and malfunctioning, providing important insights regarding areas for designing CPOE more safely in the future. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

An interpretation of radiosonde errors in the atmospheric boundary layer

Treesearch

Bernadette H. Connell; David R. Miller

1995-01-01

The authors review sources of error in radiosonde measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer and analyze errors of two radiosonde models manufactured by Atmospheric Instrumentation Research, Inc. The authors focus on temperature and humidity lag errors and wind errors. Errors in measurement of azimuth and elevation angles and pressure over short time intervals and...

Propagation of angular errors in two-axis rotation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torrington, Geoffrey K.

2003-10-01

Two-Axis Rotation Systems, or "goniometers," are used in diverse applications including telescope pointing, automotive headlamp testing, and display testing. There are three basic configurations in which a goniometer can be built depending on the orientation and order of the stages. Each configuration has a governing set of equations which convert motion between the system "native" coordinates to other base systems, such as direction cosines, optical field angles, or spherical-polar coordinates. In their simplest form, these equations neglect errors present in real systems. In this paper, a statistical treatment of error source propagation is developed which uses only tolerance data, such as can be obtained from the system mechanical drawings prior to fabrication. It is shown that certain error sources are fully correctable, partially correctable, or uncorrectable, depending upon the goniometer configuration and zeroing technique. The system error budget can be described by a root-sum-of-squares technique with weighting factors describing the sensitivity of each error source. This paper tabulates weighting factors at 67% (k=1) and 95% (k=2) confidence for various levels of maximum travel for each goniometer configuration. As a practical example, this paper works through an error budget used for the procurement of a system at Sandia National Laboratories.

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

2016-04-01

A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and the India Meteorological Department precipitation dataset respectively for L3. Despite significant El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring predictability barrier at L3, the ISMR skill score is highest at L3. Further, large scale zonal wind shear (Webster-Yang index) and SST over Niño3.4 region is best at L1 and L0. This implies that predictability aspect of ISMR is controlled by factors other than ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole. Also, the model error (forecast error) outruns the error acquired by the inadequacies in the initial conditions (predictability error). Thus model deficiency is having more serious consequences as compared to the initial condition error for the seasonal forecast. All the model parameters show the increase in the predictability error as the lead decreases over the equatorial eastern Pacific basin and peaks at L2, then it further decreases. The dynamical consistency of both the forecast and the predictability error among all the variables indicates that these biases are purely systematic in nature and improvement of the physical processes in the CFSv2 may enhance the overall predictability.

The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: effect of sample storage time

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franson, J.C.; Hohman, W.L.; Moore, J.L.; Smith, M.R.

1996-01-01

We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback dueks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of ≥0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.

Main sources of errors in diagnosis of chronic radiation sickness (in Russian)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soldatova, V.A.

1973-11-01

With the aim of finding out the main sources of errors in the diagnosis of chronic radiation sickness, the author analyzed a total of 500 cases of this sickness in roenigenologists and radiologists sent to the clinic to be examined according to occupational indications. lt was shown that the main source of errors when interpreting the observed deviations as occupational was underestimation of etiological significance of functional and organic diseases of the nervous system, endocrinevascular dystonia and also such diseases as hypochromic anemia and chronic infection. The majority of diagnostic errors is explained by insufficient knowledge of the main regularitymore » of forming the picture of chronic radiation sickness and by the absence of the necessary differential diagnosis with general somatic diseases. (auth)« less

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazrooei, Amirhossein; Sinah, Tusshar; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2015-01-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Hybrid Correlation Algorithms. A Bridge Between Feature Matching and Image Correlation,

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-11-01

spa- tially into groups of pixels. The intensity level preprocessing is designed to compensate for any biases or gain changes in the system ; whereas...number of error sources that affect the performance of the system . It would be desirable to lump these errors into ge- neric categories in discussing... system performance rather than treat- ing each error source separately. Such a generic categorization should possess the following properties: 1. The

Personal digital assistant-based drug information sources: potential to improve medication safety.

PubMed

Galt, Kimberly A; Rule, Ann M; Houghton, Bruce; Young, Daniel O; Remington, Gina

2005-04-01

This study compared the potential for personal digital assistant (PDA)-based drug information sources to minimize potential medication errors dependent on accurate and complete drug information at the point of care. A quality and safety framework for drug information resources was developed to evaluate 11 PDA-based drug information sources. Three drug information sources met the criteria of the framework: Eprocrates Rx Pro, Lexi-Drugs, and mobileMICROMEDEX. Medication error types related to drug information at the point of care were then determined. Forty-seven questions were developed to test the potential of the sources to prevent these error types. Pharmacists and physician experts from Creighton University created these questions based on the most common types of questions asked by primary care providers. Three physicians evaluated the drug information sources, rating the source for each question: 1=no information available, 2=some information available, or 3 = adequate amount of information available. The mean ratings for the drug information sources were: 2.0 (Eprocrates Rx Pro), 2.5 (Lexi-Drugs), and 2.03 (mobileMICROMEDEX). Lexi-Drugs was significantly better (mobileMICROMEDEX t test; P=0.05; Eprocrates Rx Pro t test; P=0.01). Lexi-Drugs was found to be the most specific and complete PDA resource available to optimize medication safety by reducing potential errors associated with drug information. No resource was sufficient to address the patient safety information needs for all cases.

Balancing aggregation and smoothing errors in inverse models

DOE PAGES

Turner, A. J.; Jacob, D. J.

2015-06-30

Inverse models use observations of a system (observation vector) to quantify the variables driving that system (state vector) by statistical optimization. When the observation vector is large, such as with satellite data, selecting a suitable dimension for the state vector is a challenge. A state vector that is too large cannot be effectively constrained by the observations, leading to smoothing error. However, reducing the dimension of the state vector leads to aggregation error as prior relationships between state vector elements are imposed rather than optimized. Here we present a method for quantifying aggregation and smoothing errors as a function ofmore » state vector dimension, so that a suitable dimension can be selected by minimizing the combined error. Reducing the state vector within the aggregation error constraints can have the added advantage of enabling analytical solution to the inverse problem with full error characterization. We compare three methods for reducing the dimension of the state vector from its native resolution: (1) merging adjacent elements (grid coarsening), (2) clustering with principal component analysis (PCA), and (3) applying a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with Gaussian pdfs as state vector elements on which the native-resolution state vector elements are projected using radial basis functions (RBFs). The GMM method leads to somewhat lower aggregation error than the other methods, but more importantly it retains resolution of major local features in the state vector while smoothing weak and broad features.« less

Balancing aggregation and smoothing errors in inverse models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. J.; Jacob, D. J.

2015-01-01

Inverse models use observations of a system (observation vector) to quantify the variables driving that system (state vector) by statistical optimization. When the observation vector is large, such as with satellite data, selecting a suitable dimension for the state vector is a challenge. A state vector that is too large cannot be effectively constrained by the observations, leading to smoothing error. However, reducing the dimension of the state vector leads to aggregation error as prior relationships between state vector elements are imposed rather than optimized. Here we present a method for quantifying aggregation and smoothing errors as a function of state vector dimension, so that a suitable dimension can be selected by minimizing the combined error. Reducing the state vector within the aggregation error constraints can have the added advantage of enabling analytical solution to the inverse problem with full error characterization. We compare three methods for reducing the dimension of the state vector from its native resolution: (1) merging adjacent elements (grid coarsening), (2) clustering with principal component analysis (PCA), and (3) applying a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with Gaussian pdfs as state vector elements on which the native-resolution state vector elements are projected using radial basis functions (RBFs). The GMM method leads to somewhat lower aggregation error than the other methods, but more importantly it retains resolution of major local features in the state vector while smoothing weak and broad features.

Balancing aggregation and smoothing errors in inverse models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. J.; Jacob, D. J.

2015-06-01

Inverse models use observations of a system (observation vector) to quantify the variables driving that system (state vector) by statistical optimization. When the observation vector is large, such as with satellite data, selecting a suitable dimension for the state vector is a challenge. A state vector that is too large cannot be effectively constrained by the observations, leading to smoothing error. However, reducing the dimension of the state vector leads to aggregation error as prior relationships between state vector elements are imposed rather than optimized. Here we present a method for quantifying aggregation and smoothing errors as a function of state vector dimension, so that a suitable dimension can be selected by minimizing the combined error. Reducing the state vector within the aggregation error constraints can have the added advantage of enabling analytical solution to the inverse problem with full error characterization. We compare three methods for reducing the dimension of the state vector from its native resolution: (1) merging adjacent elements (grid coarsening), (2) clustering with principal component analysis (PCA), and (3) applying a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with Gaussian pdfs as state vector elements on which the native-resolution state vector elements are projected using radial basis functions (RBFs). The GMM method leads to somewhat lower aggregation error than the other methods, but more importantly it retains resolution of major local features in the state vector while smoothing weak and broad features.

The SEASAT-A synthetic aperture radar design and implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, R. L.

1978-01-01

The SEASAT-A synthetic aperture imaging radar system is the first imaging radar system intended to be used as a scientific instrument designed for orbital use. The requirement of the radar system is to generate continuous radar imagery with a 100 kilometer swath with 25 meter resolution from an orbital altitude of 800 kilometers. These requirements impose unique system design problems and a description of the implementation is given. The end-to-end system is described, including interactions of the spacecraft, antenna, sensor, telemetry link, recording subsystem, and data processor. Some of the factors leading to the selection of critical system parameters are listed. The expected error sources leading to degradation of image quality are reported as well as estimate given of the expected performance from data obtained during a ground testing of the completed subsystems.

Global distortion of GPS networks associated with satellite antenna model errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardellach, E.; Elósegui, P.; Davis, J. L.

2007-07-01

Recent studies of the GPS satellite phase center offsets (PCOs) suggest that these have been in error by ˜1 m. Previous studies had shown that PCO errors are absorbed mainly by parameters representing satellite clock and the radial components of site position. On the basis of the assumption that the radial errors are equal, PCO errors will therefore introduce an error in network scale. However, PCO errors also introduce distortions, or apparent deformations, within the network, primarily in the radial (vertical) component of site position that cannot be corrected via a Helmert transformation. Using numerical simulations to quantify the effects of PCO errors, we found that these PCO errors lead to a vertical network distortion of 6-12 mm per meter of PCO error. The network distortion depends on the minimum elevation angle used in the analysis of the GPS phase observables, becoming larger as the minimum elevation angle increases. The steady evolution of the GPS constellation as new satellites are launched, age, and are decommissioned, leads to the effects of PCO errors varying with time that introduce an apparent global-scale rate change. We demonstrate here that current estimates for PCO errors result in a geographically variable error in the vertical rate at the 1-2 mm yr-1 level, which will impact high-precision crustal deformation studies.

Global Distortion of GPS Networks Associated with Satellite Antenna Model Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardellach, E.; Elosequi, P.; Davis, J. L.

2007-01-01

Recent studies of the GPS satellite phase center offsets (PCOs) suggest that these have been in error by approx.1 m. Previous studies had shown that PCO errors are absorbed mainly by parameters representing satellite clock and the radial components of site position. On the basis of the assumption that the radial errors are equal, PCO errors will therefore introduce an error in network scale. However, PCO errors also introduce distortions, or apparent deformations, within the network, primarily in the radial (vertical) component of site position that cannot be corrected via a Helmert transformation. Using numerical simulations to quantify the effects of PC0 errors, we found that these PCO errors lead to a vertical network distortion of 6-12 mm per meter of PCO error. The network distortion depends on the minimum elevation angle used in the analysis of the GPS phase observables, becoming larger as the minimum elevation angle increases. The steady evolution of the GPS constellation as new satellites are launched, age, and are decommissioned, leads to the effects of PCO errors varying with time that introduce an apparent global-scale rate change. We demonstrate here that current estimates for PCO errors result in a geographically variable error in the vertical rate at the 1-2 mm/yr level, which will impact high-precision crustal deformation studies.

Modeling of electrodes and implantable pulse generator cases for the analysis of implant tip heating under MR imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Acikel, Volkan, E-mail: vacik@ee.bilkent.edu.tr; Atalar, Ergin; Uslubas, Ali

Purpose: The authors’ purpose is to model the case of an implantable pulse generator (IPG) and the electrode of an active implantable medical device using lumped circuit elements in order to analyze their effect on radio frequency induced tissue heating problem during a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination. Methods: In this study, IPG case and electrode are modeled with a voltage source and impedance. Values of these parameters are found using the modified transmission line method (MoTLiM) and the method of moments (MoM) simulations. Once the parameter values of an electrode/IPG case model are determined, they can be connected tomore » any lead, and tip heating can be analyzed. To validate these models, both MoM simulations and MR experiments were used. The induced currents on the leads with the IPG case or electrode connections were solved using the proposed models and the MoTLiM. These results were compared with the MoM simulations. In addition, an electrode was connected to a lead via an inductor. The dissipated power on the electrode was calculated using the MoTLiM by changing the inductance and the results were compared with the specific absorption rate results that were obtained using MoM. Then, MRI experiments were conducted to test the IPG case and the electrode models. To test the IPG case, a bare lead was connected to the case and placed inside a uniform phantom. During a MRI scan, the temperature rise at the lead was measured by changing the lead length. The power at the lead tip for the same scenario was also calculated using the IPG case model and MoTLiM. Then, an electrode was connected to a lead via an inductor and placed inside a uniform phantom. During a MRI scan, the temperature rise at the electrode was measured by changing the inductance and compared with the dissipated power on the electrode resistance. Results: The induced currents on leads with the IPG case or electrode connection were solved for using the combination of the MoTLiM and the proposed lumped circuit models. These results were compared with those from the MoM simulations. The mean square error was less than 9%. During the MRI experiments, when the IPG case was introduced, the resonance lengths were calculated to have an error less than 13%. Also the change in tip temperature rise at resonance lengths was predicted with less than 4% error. For the electrode experiments, the value of the matching impedance was predicted with an error less than 1%. Conclusions: Electrical models for the IPG case and electrode are suggested, and the method is proposed to determine the parameter values. The concept of matching of the electrode to the lead is clarified using the defined electrode impedance and the lead Thevenin impedance. The effect of the IPG case and electrode on tip heating can be predicted using the proposed theory. With these models, understanding the tissue heating due to the implants becomes easier. Also, these models are beneficial for implant safety testers and designers. Using these models, worst case conditions can be determined and the corresponding implant test experiments can be planned.« less

ISLES: Probing Extra Dimensions Using a Superconducting Accelerometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paik, Ho Jung; Moody, M. Vol; Prieto-Gortcheva, Violeta A.

2003-01-01

In string theories, extra dimensions must be compactified. The possibility that gravity can have large radii of compactification leads to a violation of the inverse square law at submillimeter distances. The objective of ISLES is to perform a null test of Newton s law in space with a resolution of one part in 10(exp 5) or better at 100 microns. The experiment will be cooled to less than or equal to 2 K, which permits superconducting magnetic levitation of the test masses. To minimize Newtonian errors, ISLES employs a near null source, a circular disk of large diameter-to-thickness ratio. Two test masses, also disk-shaped, are suspended on the two sides of the source mass at a nominal distance of 100 microns. The signal is detected by a superconducting differential accelerometer. A ground test apparatus is under construction.

Adaptive zooming in X-ray computed tomography.

PubMed

Dabravolski, Andrei; Batenburg, Kees Joost; Sijbers, Jan

2014-01-01

In computed tomography (CT), the source-detector system commonly rotates around the object in a circular trajectory. Such a trajectory does not allow to exploit a detector fully when scanning elongated objects. Increase the spatial resolution of the reconstructed image by optimal zooming during scanning. A new approach is proposed, in which the full width of the detector is exploited for every projection angle. This approach is based on the use of prior information about the object's convex hull to move the source as close as possible to the object, while avoiding truncation of the projections. Experiments show that the proposed approach can significantly improve reconstruction quality, producing reconstructions with smaller errors and revealing more details in the object. The proposed approach can lead to more accurate reconstructions and increased spatial resolution in the object compared to the conventional circular trajectory.

Biased interpretation and memory in children with varying levels of spider fear.

PubMed

Klein, Anke M; Titulaer, Geraldine; Simons, Carlijn; Allart, Esther; de Gier, Erwin; Bögels, Susan M; Becker, Eni S; Rinck, Mike

2014-01-01

This study investigated multiple cognitive biases in children simultaneously, to investigate whether spider-fearful children display an interpretation bias, a recall bias, and source monitoring errors, and whether these biases are specific for spider-related materials. Furthermore, the independent ability of these biases to predict spider fear was investigated. A total of 121 children filled out the Spider Anxiety and Disgust Screening for Children (SADS-C), and they performed an interpretation task, a memory task, and a Behavioural Assessment Test (BAT). As expected, a specific interpretation bias was found: Spider-fearful children showed more negative interpretations of ambiguous spider-related scenarios, but not of other scenarios. We also found specific source monitoring errors: Spider-fearful children made more fear-related source monitoring errors for the spider-related scenarios, but not for the other scenarios. Only limited support was found for a recall bias. Finally, interpretation bias, recall bias, and source monitoring errors predicted unique variance components of spider fear.

Characterization of identification errors and uses in localization of poor modal correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Guillaume; Balmes, Etienne; Chancelier, Thierry

2017-05-01

While modal identification is a mature subject, very few studies address the characterization of errors associated with components of a mode shape. This is particularly important in test/analysis correlation procedures, where the Modal Assurance Criterion is used to pair modes and to localize at which sensors discrepancies occur. Poor correlation is usually attributed to modeling errors, but clearly identification errors also occur. In particular with 3D Scanning Laser Doppler Vibrometer measurement, many transfer functions are measured. As a result individual validation of each measurement cannot be performed manually in a reasonable time frame and a notable fraction of measurements is expected to be fairly noisy leading to poor identification of the associated mode shape components. The paper first addresses measurements and introduces multiple criteria. The error measures the difference between test and synthesized transfer functions around each resonance and can be used to localize poorly identified modal components. For intermediate error values, diagnostic of the origin of the error is needed. The level evaluates the transfer function amplitude in the vicinity of a given mode and can be used to eliminate sensors with low responses. A Noise Over Signal indicator, product of error and level, is then shown to be relevant to detect poorly excited modes and errors due to modal property shifts between test batches. Finally, a contribution is introduced to evaluate the visibility of a mode in each transfer. Using tests on a drum brake component, these indicators are shown to provide relevant insight into the quality of measurements. In a second part, test/analysis correlation is addressed with a focus on the localization of sources of poor mode shape correlation. The MACCo algorithm, which sorts sensors by the impact of their removal on a MAC computation, is shown to be particularly relevant. Combined with the error it avoids keeping erroneous modal components. Applied after removal of poor modal components, it provides spatial maps of poor correlation, which help localizing mode shape correlation errors and thus prepare the selection of model changes in updating procedures.

Uncertainty Analysis Principles and Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

error source . The Data Processor converts binary coded numbers to values, performs D/A curve fitting and applies any correction factors that may be...describes the stages or modules involved in the measurement process. We now need to identify all relevant error sources and develop the mathematical... sources , gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden

Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Thomas, L.; Conn, P.B.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

We summarize results of a November 2006 workshop dealing with recent research on the estimation of landbird abundance from count data. Our conceptual framework includes a decomposition of the probability of detecting a bird potentially exposed to sampling efforts into four separate probabilities. Primary inference methods are described and include distance sampling, multiple observers, time of detection, and repeated counts. The detection parameters estimated by these different approaches differ, leading to different interpretations of resulting estimates of density and abundance. Simultaneous use of combinations of these different inference approaches can not only lead to increased precision but also provides the ability to decompose components of the detection process. Recent efforts to test the efficacy of these different approaches using natural systems and a new bird radio test system provide sobering conclusions about the ability of observers to detect and localize birds in auditory surveys. Recent research is reported on efforts to deal with such potential sources of error as bird misclassification, measurement error, and density gradients. Methods for inference about spatial and temporal variation in avian abundance are outlined. Discussion topics include opinions about the need to estimate detection probability when drawing inference about avian abundance, methodological recommendations based on the current state of knowledge and suggestions for future research.

Regularized Semiparametric Estimation for Ordinary Differential Equations

PubMed Central

Li, Yun; Zhu, Ji; Wang, Naisyin

2015-01-01

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in modeling dynamic systems and have ample applications in the fields of physics, engineering, economics and biological sciences. The ODE parameters often possess physiological meanings and can help scientists gain better understanding of the system. One key interest is thus to well estimate these parameters. Ideally, constant parameters are preferred due to their easy interpretation. In reality, however, constant parameters can be too restrictive such that even after incorporating error terms, there could still be unknown sources of disturbance that lead to poor agreement between observed data and the estimated ODE system. In this paper, we address this issue and accommodate short-term interferences by allowing parameters to vary with time. We propose a new regularized estimation procedure on the time-varying parameters of an ODE system so that these parameters could change with time during transitions but remain constants within stable stages. We found, through simulation studies, that the proposed method performs well and tends to have less variation in comparison to the non-regularized approach. On the theoretical front, we derive finite-sample estimation error bounds for the proposed method. Applications of the proposed method to modeling the hare-lynx relationship and the measles incidence dynamic in Ontario, Canada lead to satisfactory and meaningful results. PMID:26392639

Prevalence of teen driver errors leading to serious motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Curry, Allison E; Hafetz, Jessica; Kallan, Michael J; Winston, Flaura K; Durbin, Dennis R

2011-07-01

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of adolescent deaths. Programs and policies should target the most common and modifiable reasons for crashes. We estimated the frequency of critical reasons for crashes involving teen drivers, and examined in more depth specific teen driver errors. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey collected data at the scene of a nationally representative sample of 5470 serious crashes between 7/05 and 12/07. NHTSA researchers assigned a single driver, vehicle, or environmental factor as the critical reason for the event immediately leading to each crash. We analyzed crashes involving 15-18 year old drivers. 822 teen drivers were involved in 795 serious crashes, representing 335,667 teens in 325,291 crashes. Driver error was by far the most common reason for crashes (95.6%), as opposed to vehicle or environmental factors. Among crashes with a driver error, a teen made the error 79.3% of the time (75.8% of all teen-involved crashes). Recognition errors (e.g., inadequate surveillance, distraction) accounted for 46.3% of all teen errors, followed by decision errors (e.g., following too closely, too fast for conditions) (40.1%) and performance errors (e.g., loss of control) (8.0%). Inadequate surveillance, driving too fast for conditions, and distracted driving together accounted for almost half of all crashes. Aggressive driving behavior, drowsy driving, and physical impairments were less commonly cited as critical reasons. Males and females had similar proportions of broadly classified errors, although females were specifically more likely to make inadequate surveillance errors. Our findings support prioritization of interventions targeting driver distraction and surveillance and hazard awareness training. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Error in the Honeybee Waggle Dance Improves Foraging Flexibility

PubMed Central

Okada, Ryuichi; Ikeno, Hidetoshi; Kimura, Toshifumi; Ohashi, Mizue; Aonuma, Hitoshi; Ito, Etsuro

2014-01-01

The honeybee waggle dance communicates the location of profitable food sources, usually with a certain degree of error in the directional information ranging from 10–15° at the lower margin. We simulated one-day colonial foraging to address the biological significance of information error in the waggle dance. When the error was 30° or larger, the waggle dance was not beneficial. If the error was 15°, the waggle dance was beneficial when the food sources were scarce. When the error was 10° or smaller, the waggle dance was beneficial under all the conditions tested. Our simulation also showed that precise information (0–5° error) yielded great success in finding feeders, but also caused failures at finding new feeders, i.e., a high-risk high-return strategy. The observation that actual bees perform the waggle dance with an error of 10–15° might reflect, at least in part, the maintenance of a successful yet risky foraging trade-off. PMID:24569525

Application of Exactly Linearized Error Transport Equations to AIAA CFD Prediction Workshops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derlaga, Joseph M.; Park, Michael A.; Rallabhandi, Sriram

2017-01-01

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction workshops sponsored by the AIAA have created invaluable opportunities in which to discuss the predictive capabilities of CFD in areas in which it has struggled, e.g., cruise drag, high-lift, and sonic boom pre diction. While there are many factors that contribute to disagreement between simulated and experimental results, such as modeling or discretization error, quantifying the errors contained in a simulation is important for those who make decisions based on the computational results. The linearized error transport equations (ETE) combined with a truncation error estimate is a method to quantify one source of errors. The ETE are implemented with a complex-step method to provide an exact linearization with minimal source code modifications to CFD and multidisciplinary analysis methods. The equivalency of adjoint and linearized ETE functional error correction is demonstrated. Uniformly refined grids from a series of AIAA prediction workshops demonstrate the utility of ETE for multidisciplinary analysis with a connection between estimated discretization error and (resolved or under-resolved) flow features.

An adaptive Gaussian process-based method for efficient Bayesian experimental design in groundwater contaminant source identification problems: ADAPTIVE GAUSSIAN PROCESS-BASED INVERSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan; Zeng, Lingzao

Surrogate models are commonly used in Bayesian approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to avoid repetitive CPU-demanding model evaluations. However, the approximation error of a surrogate may lead to biased estimations of the posterior distribution. This bias can be corrected by constructing a very accurate surrogate or implementing MCMC in a two-stage manner. Since the two-stage MCMC requires extra original model evaluations, the computational cost is still high. If the information of measurement is incorporated, a locally accurate approximation of the original model can be adaptively constructed with low computational cost. Based on this idea, we propose amore » Gaussian process (GP) surrogate-based Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation approach for groundwater contaminant source identification problems. A major advantage of the GP surrogate is that it provides a convenient estimation of the approximation error, which can be incorporated in the Bayesian formula to avoid over-confident estimation of the posterior distribution. The proposed approach is tested with a numerical case study. Without sacrificing the estimation accuracy, the new approach achieves about 200 times of speed-up compared to our previous work using two-stage MCMC.« less

Sources of Phoneme Errors in Repetition: Perseverative, Neologistic, and Lesion Patterns in Jargon Aphasia

PubMed Central

Pilkington, Emma; Keidel, James; Kendrick, Luke T.; Saddy, James D.; Sage, Karen; Robson, Holly

2017-01-01

This study examined patterns of neologistic and perseverative errors during word repetition in fluent Jargon aphasia. The principal hypotheses accounting for Jargon production indicate that poor activation of a target stimulus leads to weakly activated target phoneme segments, which are outcompeted at the phonological encoding level. Voxel-lesion symptom mapping studies of word repetition errors suggest a breakdown in the translation from auditory-phonological analysis to motor activation. Behavioral analyses of repetition data were used to analyse the target relatedness (Phonological Overlap Index: POI) of neologistic errors and patterns of perseveration in 25 individuals with Jargon aphasia. Lesion-symptom analyses explored the relationship between neurological damage and jargon repetition in a group of 38 aphasia participants. Behavioral results showed that neologisms produced by 23 jargon individuals contained greater degrees of target lexico-phonological information than predicted by chance and that neologistic and perseverative production were closely associated. A significant relationship between jargon production and lesions to temporoparietal regions was identified. Region of interest regression analyses suggested that damage to the posterior superior temporal gyrus and superior temporal sulcus in combination was best predictive of a Jargon aphasia profile. Taken together, these results suggest that poor phonological encoding, secondary to impairment in sensory-motor integration, alongside impairments in self-monitoring result in jargon repetition. Insights for clinical management and future directions are discussed. PMID:28522967

Adjustment of QT dispersion assessed from 12 lead electrocardiograms for different numbers of analysed electrocardiographic leads: comparison of stability of different methods.

PubMed Central

Hnatkova, K; Malik, M; Kautzner, J; Gang, Y; Camm, A J

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE--Normal electrocardiographic recordings were analysed to establish the influence of measurement of different numbers of electrocardiographic leads on the results of different formulas expressing QT dispersion and the effects of adjustment of QT dispersion obtained from a subset of an electrocardiogram to approximate to the true QT dispersion obtained from a complete electrocardiogram. SUBJECTS AND METHODS--Resting 12 lead electrocardiograms of 27 healthy people were investigated. In each lead, the QT interval was measured with a digitising board and QT dispersion was evaluated by three formulas: (A) the difference between the longest and the shortest QT interval among all leads; (B) the difference between the second longest and the second shortest QT interval; (C) SD of QT intervals in different leads. For each formula, the "true" dispersion was assessed from all measurable leads and then different combinations of leads were omitted. The mean relative differences between the QT dispersion with a given number of omitted leads and the "true" QT dispersion (mean relative errors) and the coefficients of variance of the results of QT dispersion obtained when omitting combinations of leads were compared for the different formulas. The procedure was repeated with an adjustment of each formula dividing its results by the square root of the number of measured leads. The same approach was used for the measurement of QT dispersion from the chest leads including a fourth formula (D) the SD of interlead differences weighted according to the distances between leads. For different formulas, the mean relative errors caused by omitting individual electrocardiographic leads were also assessed and the importance of individual leads for correct measurement of QT dispersion was investigated. RESULTS--The study found important differences between different formulas for assessment of QT dispersion with respect to compensation for missing measurements of QT interval. The standard max-min formula (A) performed poorly (mean relative errors of 6.1% to 18.5% for missing one to four leads) but was appropriately adjusted with the factor of 1/square root of n (n = number of measured leads). In a population of healthy people such an adjustment removed the systematic bias introduced by missing leads of the 12 lead electrocardiogram and significantly reduced the mean relative errors caused by the omission of several leads. The unadjusted SD was the optimum formula (C) for the analysis of 12 lead electrocardiograms, and the weighted standard deviation (D) was the optimum for the analysis of six lead chest electrocardiograms. The coefficients of variance of measurements of QT dispersion with different missing leads were very large (about 3 to 7 for one to four missing leads). Independently of the formula for measurement of QT dispersion, omission of different leads produced substantially different relative errors. In 12 lead electrocardiograms the largest relative errors (> 10%) were caused by omitting lead aVL or lead V1. CONCLUSIONS--Because of the large coefficients of variance, the concept of adjusting the QT dispersion for different numbers of electrocardiographic leads used in its assessment is difficult if not impossible to fulfil. Thus it is likely to be more appropriate to assess QT dispersion from standardised constant sets of electrocardiographic leads. PMID:7833200

Stable Extraction of Threshold Voltage Using Transconductance Change Method for CMOS Modeling, Simulation and Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Woo Young; Woo, Dong-Soo; Choi, Byung Yong; Lee, Jong Duk; Park, Byung-Gook

2004-04-01

We proposed a stable extraction algorithm for threshold voltage using transconductance change method by optimizing node interval. With the algorithm, noise-free gm2 (=dgm/dVGS) profiles can be extracted within one-percent error, which leads to more physically-meaningful threshold voltage calculation by the transconductance change method. The extracted threshold voltage predicts the gate-to-source voltage at which the surface potential is within kT/q of φs=2φf+VSB. Our algorithm makes the transconductance change method more practical by overcoming noise problem. This threshold voltage extraction algorithm yields the threshold roll-off behavior of nanoscale metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFETs) accurately and makes it possible to calculate the surface potential φs at any other point on the drain-to-source current (IDS) versus gate-to-source voltage (VGS) curve. It will provide us with a useful analysis tool in the field of device modeling, simulation and characterization.

Scaffolding--How Can Contingency Lead to Successful Learning When Dealing with Errors?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wischgoll, Anke; Pauli, Christine; Reusser, Kurt

2015-01-01

Errors indicate learners' misunderstanding and can provide learning opportunities. Providing learning support which is contingent on learners' needs when errors occur is considered effective for developing learners' understanding. The current investigation examines how tutors and tutees interact productively with errors when working on a…

Investigation of error sources in regional inverse estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, E.; Chan, D.; Ishizawa, M.; Vogel, F.; Brioude, J.; Delcloo, A.; Wu, Y.; Jin, B.

2015-08-01

Inversion models can use atmospheric concentration measurements to estimate surface fluxes. This study is an evaluation of the errors in a regional flux inversion model for different provinces of Canada, Alberta (AB), Saskatchewan (SK) and Ontario (ON). Using CarbonTracker model results as the target, the synthetic data experiment analyses examined the impacts of the errors from the Bayesian optimisation method, prior flux distribution and the atmospheric transport model, as well as their interactions. The scaling factors for different sub-regions were estimated by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and cost function minimization (CFM) methods. The CFM method results are sensitive to the relative size of the assumed model-observation mismatch and prior flux error variances. Experiment results show that the estimation error increases with the number of sub-regions using the CFM method. For the region definitions that lead to realistic flux estimates, the numbers of sub-regions for the western region of AB/SK combined and the eastern region of ON are 11 and 4 respectively. The corresponding annual flux estimation errors for the western and eastern regions using the MCMC (CFM) method are -7 and -3 % (0 and 8 %) respectively, when there is only prior flux error. The estimation errors increase to 36 and 94 % (40 and 232 %) resulting from transport model error alone. When prior and transport model errors co-exist in the inversions, the estimation errors become 5 and 85 % (29 and 201 %). This result indicates that estimation errors are dominated by the transport model error and can in fact cancel each other and propagate to the flux estimates non-linearly. In addition, it is possible for the posterior flux estimates having larger differences than the prior compared to the target fluxes, and the posterior uncertainty estimates could be unrealistically small that do not cover the target. The systematic evaluation of the different components of the inversion model can help in the understanding of the posterior estimates and percentage errors. Stable and realistic sub-regional and monthly flux estimates for western region of AB/SK can be obtained, but not for the eastern region of ON. This indicates that it is likely a real observation-based inversion for the annual provincial emissions will work for the western region whereas; improvements are needed with the current inversion setup before real inversion is performed for the eastern region.

Groundwater Pollution Source Identification using Linked ANN-Optimization Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayaz, Md; Srivastava, Rajesh; Jain, Ashu

2014-05-01

Groundwater is the principal source of drinking water in several parts of the world. Contamination of groundwater has become a serious health and environmental problem today. Human activities including industrial and agricultural activities are generally responsible for this contamination. Identification of groundwater pollution source is a major step in groundwater pollution remediation. Complete knowledge of pollution source in terms of its source characteristics is essential to adopt an effective remediation strategy. Groundwater pollution source is said to be identified completely when the source characteristics - location, strength and release period - are known. Identification of unknown groundwater pollution source is an ill-posed inverse problem. It becomes more difficult for real field conditions, when the lag time between the first reading at observation well and the time at which the source becomes active is not known. We developed a linked ANN-Optimization model for complete identification of an unknown groundwater pollution source. The model comprises two parts- an optimization model and an ANN model. Decision variables of linked ANN-Optimization model contain source location and release period of pollution source. An objective function is formulated using the spatial and temporal data of observed and simulated concentrations, and then minimized to identify the pollution source parameters. In the formulation of the objective function, we require the lag time which is not known. An ANN model with one hidden layer is trained using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to find the lag time. Different combinations of source locations and release periods are used as inputs and lag time is obtained as the output. Performance of the proposed model is evaluated for two and three dimensional case with error-free and erroneous data. Erroneous data was generated by adding uniformly distributed random error (error level 0-10%) to the analytically computed concentration values. The main advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only upper half of the breakthrough curve and is capable of predicting source parameters when the lag time is not known. Linking of ANN model with proposed optimization model reduces the dimensionality of the decision variables of the optimization model by one and hence complexity of optimization model is reduced. The results show that our proposed linked ANN-Optimization model is able to predict the source parameters for the error-free data accurately. The proposed model was run several times to obtain the mean, standard deviation and interval estimate of the predicted parameters for observations with random measurement errors. It was observed that mean values as predicted by the model were quite close to the exact values. An increasing trend was observed in the standard deviation of the predicted values with increasing level of measurement error. The model appears to be robust and may be efficiently utilized to solve the inverse pollution source identification problem.

Preschool speech error patterns predict articulation and phonological awareness outcomes in children with histories of speech sound disorders.

PubMed

Preston, Jonathan L; Hull, Margaret; Edwards, Mary Louise

2013-05-01

To determine if speech error patterns in preschoolers with speech sound disorders (SSDs) predict articulation and phonological awareness (PA) outcomes almost 4 years later. Twenty-five children with histories of preschool SSDs (and normal receptive language) were tested at an average age of 4;6 (years;months) and were followed up at age 8;3. The frequency of occurrence of preschool distortion errors, typical substitution and syllable structure errors, and atypical substitution and syllable structure errors was used to predict later speech sound production, PA, and literacy outcomes. Group averages revealed below-average school-age articulation scores and low-average PA but age-appropriate reading and spelling. Preschool speech error patterns were related to school-age outcomes. Children for whom >10% of their speech sound errors were atypical had lower PA and literacy scores at school age than children who produced <10% atypical errors. Preschoolers who produced more distortion errors were likely to have lower school-age articulation scores than preschoolers who produced fewer distortion errors. Different preschool speech error patterns predict different school-age clinical outcomes. Many atypical speech sound errors in preschoolers may be indicative of weak phonological representations, leading to long-term PA weaknesses. Preschoolers' distortions may be resistant to change over time, leading to persisting speech sound production problems.

The influence of phonological context on the sound errors of a speaker with Wernicke's aphasia.

PubMed

Goldmann, R E; Schwartz, M F; Wilshire, C E

2001-09-01

A corpus of phonological errors produced in narrative speech by a Wernicke's aphasic speaker (R.W.B.) was tested for context effects using two new methods for establishing chance baselines. A reliable anticipatory effect was found using the second method, which estimated chance from the distance between phoneme repeats in the speech sample containing the errors. Relative to this baseline, error-source distances were shorter than expected for anticipations, but not perseverations. R.W.B.'s anticipation/perseveration ratio measured intermediate between a nonaphasic error corpus and that of a more severe aphasic speaker (both reported in Schwartz et al., 1994), supporting the view that the anticipatory bias correlates to severity. Finally, R.W.B's anticipations favored word-initial segments, although errors and sources did not consistently share word or syllable position. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

The Sources of Error in Spanish Writing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Justicia, Fernando; Defior, Sylvia; Pelegrina, Santiago; Martos, Francisco J.

1999-01-01

Determines the pattern of errors in Spanish spelling. Analyzes and proposes a classification system for the errors made by children in the initial stages of the acquisition of spelling skills. Finds the diverse forms of only 20 Spanish words produces 36% of the spelling errors in Spanish; and substitution is the most frequent type of error. (RS)

The influence of declining air lead levels on blood lead-air lead slope factors in children.

PubMed

Richmond-Bryant, Jennifer; Meng, Qingyu; Davis, Allen; Cohen, Jonathan; Lu, Shou-En; Svendsgaard, David; Brown, James S; Tuttle, Lauren; Hubbard, Heidi; Rice, Joann; Kirrane, Ellen; Vinikoor-Imler, Lisa C; Kotchmar, Dennis; Hines, Erin P; Ross, Mary

2014-07-01

It is difficult to discern the proportion of blood lead (PbB) attributable to ambient air lead (PbA), given the multitude of lead (Pb) sources and pathways of exposure. The PbB-PbA relationship has previously been evaluated across populations. This relationship was a central consideration in the 2008 review of the Pb national ambient air quality standards. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationship between PbB and PbA concentrations among children nationwide for recent years and to compare the relationship with those obtained from other studies in the literature. We merged participant-level data for PbB from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III (1988-1994) and NHANES 9908 (1999-2008) with PbA data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We applied mixed-effects models, and we computed slope factor, d[PbB]/d[PbA] or the change in PbB per unit change in PbA, from the model results to assess the relationship between PbB and PbA. Comparing the NHANES regression results with those from the literature shows that slope factor increased with decreasing PbA among children 0-11 years of age. These findings suggest that a larger relative public health benefit may be derived among children from decreases in PbA at low PbA exposures. Simultaneous declines in Pb from other sources, changes in PbA sampling uncertainties over time largely related to changes in the size distribution of Pb-bearing particulate matter, and limitations regarding sampling size and exposure error may contribute to the variability in slope factor observed across peer-reviewed studies.

Geometric error analysis for shuttle imaging spectrometer experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, S. J.; Ih, C. H.

1984-01-01

The demand of more powerful tools for remote sensing and management of earth resources steadily increased over the last decade. With the recent advancement of area array detectors, high resolution multichannel imaging spectrometers can be realistically constructed. The error analysis study for the Shuttle Imaging Spectrometer Experiment system is documented for the purpose of providing information for design, tradeoff, and performance prediction. Error sources including the Shuttle attitude determination and control system, instrument pointing and misalignment, disturbances, ephemeris, Earth rotation, etc., were investigated. Geometric error mapping functions were developed, characterized, and illustrated extensively with tables and charts. Selected ground patterns and the corresponding image distortions were generated for direct visual inspection of how the various error sources affect the appearance of the ground object images.

TH-E-BRE-07: Development of Dose Calculation Error Predictors for a Widely Implemented Clinical Algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egan, A; Laub, W

2014-06-15

Purpose: Several shortcomings of the current implementation of the analytic anisotropic algorithm (AAA) may lead to dose calculation errors in highly modulated treatments delivered to highly heterogeneous geometries. Here we introduce a set of dosimetric error predictors that can be applied to a clinical treatment plan and patient geometry in order to identify high risk plans. Once a problematic plan is identified, the treatment can be recalculated with more accurate algorithm in order to better assess its viability. Methods: Here we focus on three distinct sources dosimetric error in the AAA algorithm. First, due to a combination of discrepancies inmore » smallfield beam modeling as well as volume averaging effects, dose calculated through small MLC apertures can be underestimated, while that behind small MLC blocks can overestimated. Second, due the rectilinear scaling of the Monte Carlo generated pencil beam kernel, energy is not properly transported through heterogeneities near, but not impeding, the central axis of the beamlet. And third, AAA overestimates dose in regions very low density (< 0.2 g/cm{sup 3}). We have developed an algorithm to detect the location and magnitude of each scenario within the patient geometry, namely the field-size index (FSI), the heterogeneous scatter index (HSI), and the lowdensity index (LDI) respectively. Results: Error indices successfully identify deviations between AAA and Monte Carlo dose distributions in simple phantom geometries. Algorithms are currently implemented in the MATLAB computing environment and are able to run on a typical RapidArc head and neck geometry in less than an hour. Conclusion: Because these error indices successfully identify each type of error in contrived cases, with sufficient benchmarking, this method can be developed into a clinical tool that may be able to help estimate AAA dose calculation errors and when it might be advisable to use Monte Carlo calculations.« less

Uncertainty Analyses for Back Projection Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, H.; Wei, S.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

So far few comprehensive error analyses for back projection methods have been conducted, although it is evident that high frequency seismic waves can be easily affected by earthquake depth, focal mechanisms and the Earth's 3D structures. Here we perform 1D and 3D synthetic tests for two back projection methods, MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) (Meng et al., 2011) and Compressive Sensing (CS) (Yao et al., 2011). We generate synthetics for both point sources and finite rupture sources with different depths, focal mechanisms, as well as 1D and 3D structures in the source region. The 3D synthetics are generated through a hybrid scheme of Direct Solution Method and Spectral Element Method. Then we back project the synthetic data using MUSIC and CS. The synthetic tests show that the depth phases can be back projected as artificial sources both in space and time. For instance, for a source depth of 10km, back projection gives a strong signal 8km away from the true source. Such bias increases with depth, e.g., the error of horizontal location could be larger than 20km for a depth of 40km. If the array is located around the nodal direction of direct P-waves the teleseismic P-waves are dominated by the depth phases. Therefore, back projections are actually imaging the reflection points of depth phases more than the rupture front. Besides depth phases, the strong and long lasted coda waves due to 3D effects near trench can lead to additional complexities tested here. The strength contrast of different frequency contents in the rupture models also produces some variations to the back projection results. In the synthetic tests, MUSIC and CS derive consistent results. While MUSIC is more computationally efficient, CS works better for sparse arrays. In summary, our analyses indicate that the impact of various factors mentioned above should be taken into consideration when interpreting back projection images, before we can use them to infer the earthquake rupture physics.

Accuracy of cited “facts” in medical research articles: A review of study methodology and recalculation of quotation error rate

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Previous reviews estimated that approximately 20 to 25% of assertions cited from original research articles, or “facts,” are inaccurately quoted in the medical literature. These reviews noted that the original studies were dissimilar and only began to compare the methods of the original studies. The aim of this review is to examine the methods of the original studies and provide a more specific rate of incorrectly cited assertions, or quotation errors, in original research articles published in medical journals. Additionally, the estimate of quotation errors calculated here is based on the ratio of quotation errors to quotations examined (a percent) rather than the more prevalent and weighted metric of quotation errors to the references selected. Overall, this resulted in a lower estimate of the quotation error rate in original medical research articles. A total of 15 studies met the criteria for inclusion in the primary quantitative analysis. Quotation errors were divided into two categories: content ("factual") or source (improper indirect citation) errors. Content errors were further subdivided into major and minor errors depending on the degree that the assertion differed from the original source. The rate of quotation errors recalculated here is 14.5% (10.5% to 18.6% at a 95% confidence interval). These content errors are predominantly, 64.8% (56.1% to 73.5% at a 95% confidence interval), major errors or cited assertions in which the referenced source either fails to substantiate, is unrelated to, or contradicts the assertion. Minor errors, which are an oversimplification, overgeneralization, or trivial inaccuracies, are 35.2% (26.5% to 43.9% at a 95% confidence interval). Additionally, improper secondary (or indirect) citations, which are distinguished from calculations of quotation accuracy, occur at a rate of 10.4% (3.4% to 17.5% at a 95% confidence interval). PMID:28910404

Accuracy of cited "facts" in medical research articles: A review of study methodology and recalculation of quotation error rate.

PubMed

Mogull, Scott A

2017-01-01

Previous reviews estimated that approximately 20 to 25% of assertions cited from original research articles, or "facts," are inaccurately quoted in the medical literature. These reviews noted that the original studies were dissimilar and only began to compare the methods of the original studies. The aim of this review is to examine the methods of the original studies and provide a more specific rate of incorrectly cited assertions, or quotation errors, in original research articles published in medical journals. Additionally, the estimate of quotation errors calculated here is based on the ratio of quotation errors to quotations examined (a percent) rather than the more prevalent and weighted metric of quotation errors to the references selected. Overall, this resulted in a lower estimate of the quotation error rate in original medical research articles. A total of 15 studies met the criteria for inclusion in the primary quantitative analysis. Quotation errors were divided into two categories: content ("factual") or source (improper indirect citation) errors. Content errors were further subdivided into major and minor errors depending on the degree that the assertion differed from the original source. The rate of quotation errors recalculated here is 14.5% (10.5% to 18.6% at a 95% confidence interval). These content errors are predominantly, 64.8% (56.1% to 73.5% at a 95% confidence interval), major errors or cited assertions in which the referenced source either fails to substantiate, is unrelated to, or contradicts the assertion. Minor errors, which are an oversimplification, overgeneralization, or trivial inaccuracies, are 35.2% (26.5% to 43.9% at a 95% confidence interval). Additionally, improper secondary (or indirect) citations, which are distinguished from calculations of quotation accuracy, occur at a rate of 10.4% (3.4% to 17.5% at a 95% confidence interval).

The Pearson-Readhead Survey of Compact Extragalactic Radio Sources from Space. I. The Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lister, M. L.; Tingay, S. J.; Murphy, D. W.; Piner, B. G.; Jones, D. L.; Preston, R. A.

2001-06-01

We present images from a space-VLBI survey using the facilities of the VLBI Space Observatory Programme (VSOP), drawing our sample from the well-studied Pearson-Readhead survey of extragalactic radio sources. Our survey has taken advantage of long space-VLBI baselines and large arrays of ground antennas, such as the Very Long Baseline Array and European VLBI Network, to obtain high-resolution images of 27 active galactic nuclei and to measure the core brightness temperatures of these sources more accurately than is possible from the ground. A detailed analysis of the source properties is given in accompanying papers. We have also performed an extensive series of simulations to investigate the errors in VSOP images caused by the relatively large holes in the (u,v)-plane when sources are observed near the orbit normal direction. We find that while the nominal dynamic range (defined as the ratio of map peak to off-source error) often exceeds 1000:1, the true dynamic range (map peak to on-source error) is only about 30:1 for relatively complex core-jet sources. For sources dominated by a strong point source, this value rises to approximately 100:1. We find the true dynamic range to be a relatively weak function of the difference in position angle (P.A.) between the jet P.A. and u-v coverage major axis P.A. For regions with low signal-to-noise ratios, typically located down the jet away from the core, large errors can occur, causing spurious features in VSOP images that should be interpreted with caution.

Preventing medication errors in cancer chemotherapy.

PubMed

Cohen, M R; Anderson, R W; Attilio, R M; Green, L; Muller, R J; Pruemer, J M

1996-04-01

Recommendations for preventing medication errors in cancer chemotherapy are made. Before a health care provider is granted privileges to prescribe, dispense, or administer antineoplastic agents, he or she should undergo a tailored educational program and possibly testing or certification. Appropriate reference materials should be developed. Each institution should develop a dose-verification process with as many independent checks as possible. A detailed checklist covering prescribing, transcribing, dispensing, and administration should be used. Oral orders are not acceptable. All doses should be calculated independently by the physician, the pharmacist, and the nurse. Dosage limits should be established and a review process set up for doses that exceed the limits. These limits should be entered into pharmacy computer systems, listed on preprinted order forms, stated on the product packaging, placed in strategic locations in the institution, and communicated to employees. The prescribing vocabulary must be standardized. Acronyms, abbreviations, and brand names must be avoided and steps taken to avoid other sources of confusion in the written orders, such as trailing zeros. Preprinted antineoplastic drug order forms containing checklists can help avoid errors. Manufacturers should be encouraged to avoid or eliminate ambiguities in drug names and dosing information. Patients must be educated about all aspects of their cancer chemotherapy, as patients represent a last line of defense against errors. An interdisciplinary team at each practice site should review every medication error reported. Pharmacists should be involved at all sites where antineoplastic agents are dispensed. Although it may not be possible to eliminate all medication errors in cancer chemotherapy, the risk can be minimized through specific steps. Because of their training and experience, pharmacists should take the lead in this effort.

The Certainty of Uncertainty: Potential Sources of Bias and Imprecision in Disease Ecology Studies.

PubMed

Lachish, Shelly; Murray, Kris A

2018-01-01

Wildlife diseases have important implications for wildlife and human health, the preservation of biodiversity and the resilience of ecosystems. However, understanding disease dynamics and the impacts of pathogens in wild populations is challenging because these complex systems can rarely, if ever, be observed without error. Uncertainty in disease ecology studies is commonly defined in terms of either heterogeneity in detectability (due to variation in the probability of encountering, capturing, or detecting individuals in their natural habitat) or uncertainty in disease state assignment (due to misclassification errors or incomplete information). In reality, however, uncertainty in disease ecology studies extends beyond these components of observation error and can arise from multiple varied processes, each of which can lead to bias and a lack of precision in parameter estimates. Here, we present an inventory of the sources of potential uncertainty in studies that attempt to quantify disease-relevant parameters from wild populations (e.g., prevalence, incidence, transmission rates, force of infection, risk of infection, persistence times, and disease-induced impacts). We show that uncertainty can arise via processes pertaining to aspects of the disease system, the study design, the methods used to study the system, and the state of knowledge of the system, and that uncertainties generated via one process can propagate through to others because of interactions between the numerous biological, methodological and environmental factors at play. We show that many of these sources of uncertainty may not be immediately apparent to researchers (for example, unidentified crypticity among vectors, hosts or pathogens, a mismatch between the temporal scale of sampling and disease dynamics, demographic or social misclassification), and thus have received comparatively little consideration in the literature to date. Finally, we discuss the type of bias or imprecision introduced by these varied sources of uncertainty and briefly present appropriate sampling and analytical methods to account for, or minimise, their influence on estimates of disease-relevant parameters. This review should assist researchers and practitioners to navigate the pitfalls of uncertainty in wildlife disease ecology studies.

Understanding diagnostic errors in medicine: a lesson from aviation

PubMed Central

Singh, H; Petersen, L A; Thomas, E J

2006-01-01

The impact of diagnostic errors on patient safety in medicine is increasingly being recognized. Despite the current progress in patient safety research, the understanding of such errors and how to prevent them is inadequate. Preliminary research suggests that diagnostic errors have both cognitive and systems origins. Situational awareness is a model that is primarily used in aviation human factors research that can encompass both the cognitive and the systems roots of such errors. This conceptual model offers a unique perspective in the study of diagnostic errors. The applicability of this model is illustrated by the analysis of a patient whose diagnosis of spinal cord compression was substantially delayed. We suggest how the application of this framework could lead to potential areas of intervention and outline some areas of future research. It is possible that the use of such a model in medicine could help reduce errors in diagnosis and lead to significant improvements in patient care. Further research is needed, including the measurement of situational awareness and correlation with health outcomes. PMID:16751463

Systematic Errors in an Air Track Experiment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramirez, Santos A.; Ham, Joe S.

1990-01-01

Errors found in a common physics experiment to measure acceleration resulting from gravity using a linear air track are investigated. Glider position at release and initial velocity are shown to be sources of systematic error. (CW)

Dimensional control of die castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karve, Aniruddha Ajit

The demand for net shape die castings, which require little or no machining, is steadily increasing. Stringent customer requirements are forcing die casters to deliver high quality castings in increasingly short lead times. Dimensional conformance to customer specifications is an inherent part of die casting quality. The dimensional attributes of a die casting are essentially dependent upon many factors--the quality of the die and the degree of control over the process variables being the two major sources of dimensional error in die castings. This study focused on investigating the nature and the causes of dimensional error in die castings. The two major components of dimensional error i.e., dimensional variability and die allowance were studied. The major effort of this study was to qualitatively and quantitatively study the effects of casting geometry and process variables on die casting dimensional variability and die allowance. This was accomplished by detailed dimensional data collection at production die casting sites. Robust feature characterization schemes were developed to describe complex casting geometry in quantitative terms. Empirical modeling was utilized to quantify the effects of the casting variables on dimensional variability and die allowance for die casting features. A number of casting geometry and process variables were found to affect dimensional variability in die castings. The dimensional variability was evaluated by comparisons with current published dimensional tolerance standards. The casting geometry was found to play a significant role in influencing the die allowance of the features measured. The predictive models developed for dimensional variability and die allowance were evaluated to test their effectiveness. Finally, the relative impact of all the components of dimensional error in die castings was put into perspective, and general guidelines for effective dimensional control in the die casting plant were laid out. The results of this study will contribute to enhancement of dimensional quality and lead time compression in the die casting industry, thus making it competitive with other net shape manufacturing processes.

Continuum limit of Bk from 2+1 flavor domain wall QCD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soni, A.; T. Izubuchi, et al.

2011-07-01

We determine the neutral kaon mixing matrix element B{sub K} in the continuum limit with 2+1 flavors of domain wall fermions, using the Iwasaki gauge action at two different lattice spacings. These lattice fermions have near exact chiral symmetry and therefore avoid artificial lattice operator mixing. We introduce a significant improvement to the conventional nonperturbative renormalization (NPR) method in which the bare matrix elements are renormalized nonperturbatively in the regularization invariant momentum scheme (RI-MOM) and are then converted into the MS{sup -} scheme using continuum perturbation theory. In addition to RI-MOM, we introduce and implement four nonexceptional intermediate momentum schemesmore » that suppress infrared nonperturbative uncertainties in the renormalization procedure. We compute the conversion factors relating the matrix elements in this family of regularization invariant symmetric momentum schemes (RI-SMOM) and MS{sup -} at one-loop order. Comparison of the results obtained using these different intermediate schemes allows for a more reliable estimate of the unknown higher-order contributions and hence for a correspondingly more robust estimate of the systematic error. We also apply a recently proposed approach in which twisted boundary conditions are used to control the Symanzik expansion for off-shell vertex functions leading to a better control of the renormalization in the continuum limit. We control chiral extrapolation errors by considering both the next-to-leading order SU(2) chiral effective theory, and an analytic mass expansion. We obtain B{sub K}{sup MS{sup -}} (3 GeV) = 0.529(5){sub stat}(15){sub {chi}}(2){sub FV}(11){sub NPR}. This corresponds to B{sup -}{sub K}{sup RGI{sup -}} = 0.749(7){sub stat}(21){sub {chi}}(3){sub FV}(15){sub NPR}. Adding all sources of error in quadrature, we obtain B{sup -}{sub K}{sup RGI{sup -}} = 0.749(27){sub combined}, with an overall combined error of 3.6%.« less

Extreme wind-wave modeling and analysis in the south Atlantic ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, R. M.; Alves, J. H. G. M.; Guedes Soares, C.; Guimaraes, L. G.; Parente, C. E.

2018-04-01

A set of wave hindcasts is constructed using two different types of wind calibration, followed by an additional test retuning the input source term Sin in the wave model. The goal is to improve the simulation in extreme wave events in the South Atlantic Ocean without compromising average conditions. Wind fields are based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR/NCEP). The first wind calibration applies a simple linear regression model, with coefficients obtained from the comparison of CFSR against buoy data. The second is a method where deficiencies of the CFSR associated with severe sea state events are remedied, whereby "defective" winds are replaced with satellite data within cyclones. A total of six wind datasets forced WAVEWATCH-III and additional three tests with modified Sin in WAVEWATCH III lead to a total of nine wave hindcasts that are evaluated against satellite and buoy data for ambient and extreme conditions. The target variable considered is the significant wave height (Hs). The increase of sea-state severity shows a progressive increase of the hindcast underestimation which could be calculated as a function of percentiles. The wind calibration using a linear regression function shows similar results to the adjustments to Sin term (increase of βmax parameter) in WAVEWATCH-III - it effectively reduces the average bias of Hs but cannot avoid the increase of errors with percentiles. The use of blended scatterometer winds within cyclones could reduce the increasing wave hindcast errors mainly above the 93rd percentile and leads to a better representation of Hs at the peak of the storms. The combination of linear regression calibration of non-cyclonic winds with scatterometer winds within the cyclones generated a wave hindcast with small errors from calm to extreme conditions. This approach led to a reduction of the percentage error of Hs from 14% to less than 8% for extreme waves, while also improving the RMSE.

Attitude errors arising from antenna/satellite altitude errors - Recognition and reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Godbey, T. W.; Lambert, R.; Milano, G.

1972-01-01

A review is presented of the three basic types of pulsed radar altimeter designs, as well as the source and form of altitude bias errors arising from antenna/satellite attitude errors in each design type. A quantitative comparison of the three systems was also made.

Sensitivity of Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) Mission Navigation Accuracy to Major Error Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Corwin; Long, Anne; Car[emter. Russell

2011-01-01

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission consists of four satellites flying in formation in highly elliptical orbits about the Earth, with a primary objective of studying magnetic reconnection. The baseline navigation concept is independent estimation of each spacecraft state using GPS pseudorange measurements referenced to an Ultra Stable Oscillator (USO) with accelerometer measurements included during maneuvers. MMS state estimation is performed onboard each spacecraft using the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS), which is embedded in the Navigator GPS receiver. This paper describes the sensitivity of MMS navigation performance to two major error sources: USO clock errors and thrust acceleration knowledge errors.

Sensitivity of Magnetospheric Multi-Scale (MMS) Mission Naviation Accuracy to Major Error Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Corwin; Long, Anne; Carpenter, J. Russell

2011-01-01

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission consists of four satellites flying in formation in highly elliptical orbits about the Earth, with a primary objective of studying magnetic reconnection. The baseline navigation concept is independent estimation of each spacecraft state using GPS pseudorange measurements referenced to an Ultra Stable Oscillator (USO) with accelerometer measurements included during maneuvers. MMS state estimation is performed onboard each spacecraft using the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS), which is embedded in the Navigator GPS receiver. This paper describes the sensitivity of MMS navigation performance to two major error sources: USO clock errors and thrust acceleration knowledge errors.

General error analysis in the relationship between free thyroxine and thyrotropin and its clinical relevance.

PubMed

Goede, Simon L; Leow, Melvin Khee-Shing

2013-01-01

This treatise investigates error sources in measurements applicable to the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) system of analysis for homeostatic set point computation. The hypothalamus-pituitary transfer characteristic (HP curve) describes the relationship between plasma free thyroxine [FT4] and thyrotropin [TSH]. We define the origin, types, causes, and effects of errors that are commonly encountered in TFT measurements and examine how we can interpret these to construct a reliable HP function for set point establishment. The error sources in the clinical measurement procedures are identified and analyzed in relation to the constructed HP model. The main sources of measurement and interpretation uncertainties are (1) diurnal variations in [TSH], (2) TFT measurement variations influenced by timing of thyroid medications, (3) error sensitivity in ranges of [TSH] and [FT4] (laboratory assay dependent), (4) rounding/truncation of decimals in [FT4] which in turn amplify curve fitting errors in the [TSH] domain in the lower [FT4] range, (5) memory effects (rate-independent hysteresis effect). When the main uncertainties in thyroid function tests (TFT) are identified and analyzed, we can find the most acceptable model space with which we can construct the best HP function and the related set point area.

Unaccounted source of systematic errors in measurements of the Newtonian gravitational constant G

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeSalvo, Riccardo

2015-06-01

Many precision measurements of G have produced a spread of results incompatible with measurement errors. Clearly an unknown source of systematic errors is at work. It is proposed here that most of the discrepancies derive from subtle deviations from Hooke's law, caused by avalanches of entangled dislocations. The idea is supported by deviations from linearity reported by experimenters measuring G, similarly to what is observed, on a larger scale, in low-frequency spring oscillators. Some mitigating experimental apparatus modifications are suggested.

The influence of stress responses on surgical performance and outcomes: Literature review and the development of the surgical stress effects (SSE) framework.

PubMed

Chrouser, Kristin L; Xu, Jie; Hallbeck, Susan; Weinger, Matthew B; Partin, Melissa R

2018-02-22

Surgical adverse events persist despite several decades of system-based quality improvement efforts, suggesting the need for alternative strategies. Qualitative studies suggest stress-induced negative intraoperative interpersonal dynamics might contribute to performance errors and undesirable patient outcomes. Understanding the impact of intraoperative stressors may be critical to reducing adverse events and improving outcomes. We searched MEDLINE, psycINFO, EMBASE, Business Source Premier, and CINAHL databases (1996-2016) to assess the relationship between negative (emotional and behavioral) responses to acute intraoperative stressors and provider performance or patient surgical outcomes. Drawing on theory and evidence from reviewed studies, we present the Surgical Stress Effects (SSE) framework. This illustrates how emotional and behavioral responses to stressors can influence individual surgical provider (e.g. surgeon, nurse) performance, team performance, and patient outcomes. It also demonstrates how uncompensated intraoperative threats and errors can lead to adverse events, highlighting evidence gaps for future research efforts. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Recommendations for reducing ambiguity in written procedures.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matzen, Laura E.

Previous studies in the nuclear weapons complex have shown that ambiguous work instructions (WIs) and operating procedures (OPs) can lead to human error, which is a major cause for concern. This report outlines some of the sources of ambiguity in written English and describes three recommendations for reducing ambiguity in WIs and OPs. The recommendations are based on commonly used research techniques in the fields of linguistics and cognitive psychology. The first recommendation is to gather empirical data that can be used to improve the recommended word lists that are provided to technical writers. The second recommendation is to havemore » a review in which new WIs and OPs and checked for ambiguities and clarity. The third recommendation is to use self-paced reading time studies to identify any remaining ambiguities before the new WIs and OPs are put into use. If these three steps are followed for new WIs and OPs, the likelihood of human errors related to ambiguity could be greatly reduced.« less

Levels of asymmetry in Formica pratensis Retz. (Hymenoptera, Insecta) from a chronic metal-contaminated site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rabitsch, W.B.

1997-07-01

Asymmetries of bilaterally symmetrical morphological traits in workers of the ant Formica pratensis Retzius were compared at sites with different levels of metal contamination and between mature and pre-mature colonies. Statistical analyses of the right-minus-left differences revealed that their distributions fit assumptions of fluctuating asymmetry (FA). No direct asymmetry or antisymmetry were present. Mean measurement error accounts for a third of the variation, but the maximum measurement error was 65%. Although significant differences of FA in ants were observed, the inconsistent results render uncovering a clear pattern difficult. Lead, cadmium, and zinc concentrations in the ants decreased with the distancemore » from the contamination source, but no relation was found between FA and the heavy metal levels. Ants from the premature colonies were more asymmetrical than those from mature colonies but accumulated less metals. The use of asymmetry measures in ecotoxicology and biomonitoring is criticized, but should remain widely applicable if statistical assumptions are complemented by genetic and historical data.« less

Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Brakenhoff, Timo B; van Smeden, Maarten; Visseren, Frank L J; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2018-01-01

With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data'), measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error) is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate). For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

Preschool speech error patterns predict articulation and phonological awareness outcomes in children with histories of speech sound disorders

PubMed Central

Preston, Jonathan L.; Hull, Margaret; Edwards, Mary Louise

2012-01-01

Purpose To determine if speech error patterns in preschoolers with speech sound disorders (SSDs) predict articulation and phonological awareness (PA) outcomes almost four years later. Method Twenty-five children with histories of preschool SSDs (and normal receptive language) were tested at an average age of 4;6 and followed up at 8;3. The frequency of occurrence of preschool distortion errors, typical substitution and syllable structure errors, and atypical substitution and syllable structure errors were used to predict later speech sound production, PA, and literacy outcomes. Results Group averages revealed below-average school-age articulation scores and low-average PA, but age-appropriate reading and spelling. Preschool speech error patterns were related to school-age outcomes. Children for whom more than 10% of their speech sound errors were atypical had lower PA and literacy scores at school-age than children who produced fewer than 10% atypical errors. Preschoolers who produced more distortion errors were likely to have lower school-age articulation scores. Conclusions Different preschool speech error patterns predict different school-age clinical outcomes. Many atypical speech sound errors in preschool may be indicative of weak phonological representations, leading to long-term PA weaknesses. Preschool distortions may be resistant to change over time, leading to persisting speech sound production problems. PMID:23184137

C-band radar pulse Doppler error: Its discovery, modeling, and elimination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krabill, W. B.; Dempsey, D. J.

1978-01-01

The discovery of a C Band radar pulse Doppler error is discussed and use of the GEOS 3 satellite's coherent transponder to isolate the error source is described. An analysis of the pulse Doppler tracking loop is presented and a mathematical model for the error was developed. Error correction techniques were developed and are described including implementation details.

Adaptive Sparse Representation for Source Localization with Gain/Phase Errors

PubMed Central

Sun, Ke; Liu, Yimin; Meng, Huadong; Wang, Xiqin

2011-01-01

Sparse representation (SR) algorithms can be implemented for high-resolution direction of arrival (DOA) estimation. Additionally, SR can effectively separate the coherent signal sources because the spectrum estimation is based on the optimization technique, such as the L1 norm minimization, but not on subspace orthogonality. However, in the actual source localization scenario, an unknown gain/phase error between the array sensors is inevitable. Due to this nonideal factor, the predefined overcomplete basis mismatches the actual array manifold so that the estimation performance is degraded in SR. In this paper, an adaptive SR algorithm is proposed to improve the robustness with respect to the gain/phase error, where the overcomplete basis is dynamically adjusted using multiple snapshots and the sparse solution is adaptively acquired to match with the actual scenario. The simulation results demonstrate the estimation robustness to the gain/phase error using the proposed method. PMID:22163875

Time to ditch non-SI units in physics teaching?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkin, Keith

2015-08-01

The current use of two sets of units in the UK continues to be a source of muddle and confusion. Young people are taught metric (SI) units in school but, in the outside world, still have to contend with units such as inches, feet, pounds, stones and miles. Specialist teachers and practitioners of the sciences are not blameless. This paper considers the fact that some units commonly used in physics, astronomy, and physics education are unnecessary, involve time-wasting conversions and frequently lead to confusion or even error. This unsatisfactory situation is illustrated by examples, and suggestions are made for a radical improvement.

Subaperture test of wavefront error of large telescopes: error sources and stitching performance simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shanyong; Li, Shengyi; Wang, Guilin

2014-11-01

The wavefront error of large telescopes requires to be measured to check the system quality and also estimate the misalignment of the telescope optics including the primary, the secondary and so on. It is usually realized by a focal plane interferometer and an autocollimator flat (ACF) of the same aperture with the telescope. However, it is challenging for meter class telescopes due to high cost and technological challenges in producing the large ACF. Subaperture test with a smaller ACF is hence proposed in combination with advanced stitching algorithms. Major error sources include the surface error of the ACF, misalignment of the ACF and measurement noises. Different error sources have different impacts on the wavefront error. Basically the surface error of the ACF behaves like systematic error and the astigmatism will be cumulated and enlarged if the azimuth of subapertures remains fixed. It is difficult to accurately calibrate the ACF because it suffers considerable deformation induced by gravity or mechanical clamping force. Therefore a selfcalibrated stitching algorithm is employed to separate the ACF surface error from the subaperture wavefront error. We suggest the ACF be rotated around the optical axis of the telescope for subaperture test. The algorithm is also able to correct the subaperture tip-tilt based on the overlapping consistency. Since all subaperture measurements are obtained in the same imaging plane, lateral shift of the subapertures is always known and the real overlapping points can be recognized in this plane. Therefore lateral positioning error of subapertures has no impact on the stitched wavefront. In contrast, the angular positioning error changes the azimuth of the ACF and finally changes the systematic error. We propose an angularly uneven layout of subapertures to minimize the stitching error, which is very different from our knowledge. At last, measurement noises could never be corrected but be suppressed by means of averaging and environmental control. We simulate the performance of the stitching algorithm dealing with surface error and misalignment of the ACF, and noise suppression, which provides guidelines to optomechanical design of the stitching test system.

Reducing Modeling Error of Graphical Methods for Estimating Volume of Distribution Measurements in PIB-PET study

PubMed Central

Guo, Hongbin; Renaut, Rosemary A; Chen, Kewei; Reiman, Eric M

2010-01-01

Graphical analysis methods are widely used in positron emission tomography quantification because of their simplicity and model independence. But they may, particularly for reversible kinetics, lead to bias in the estimated parameters. The source of the bias is commonly attributed to noise in the data. Assuming a two-tissue compartmental model, we investigate the bias that originates from modeling error. This bias is an intrinsic property of the simplified linear models used for limited scan durations, and it is exaggerated by random noise and numerical quadrature error. Conditions are derived under which Logan's graphical method either over- or under-estimates the distribution volume in the noise-free case. The bias caused by modeling error is quantified analytically. The presented analysis shows that the bias of graphical methods is inversely proportional to the dissociation rate. Furthermore, visual examination of the linearity of the Logan plot is not sufficient for guaranteeing that equilibrium has been reached. A new model which retains the elegant properties of graphical analysis methods is presented, along with a numerical algorithm for its solution. We perform simulations with the fibrillar amyloid β radioligand [11C] benzothiazole-aniline using published data from the University of Pittsburgh and Rotterdam groups. The results show that the proposed method significantly reduces the bias due to modeling error. Moreover, the results for data acquired over a 70 minutes scan duration are at least as good as those obtained using existing methods for data acquired over a 90 minutes scan duration. PMID:20493196

A study of partial coherence for identifying interior noise sources and paths on general aviation aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howlett, J. T.

1979-01-01

The partial coherence analysis method for noise source/path determination is summarized and the application to a two input, single output system with coherence between the inputs is illustrated. The augmentation of the calculations on a digital computer interfaced with a two channel, real time analyzer is also discussed. The results indicate possible sources of error in the computations and suggest procedures for avoiding these errors.

Simulating a transmon implementation of the surface code, Part I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasinski, Brian; O'Brien, Thomas; Rol, Adriaan; Bultink, Niels; Dicarlo, Leo

Current experimental efforts aim to realize Surface-17, a distance-3 surface-code logical qubit, using transmon qubits in a circuit QED architecture. Following experimental proposals for this device, and currently achieved fidelities on physical qubits, we define a detailed error model that takes experimentally relevant error sources into account, such as amplitude and phase damping, imperfect gate pulses, and coherent errors due to low-frequency flux noise. Using the GPU-accelerated software package 'quantumsim', we simulate the density matrix evolution of the logical qubit under this error model. Combining the simulation results with a minimum-weight matching decoder, we obtain predictions for the error rate of the resulting logical qubit when used as a quantum memory, and estimate the contribution of different error sources to the logical error budget. Research funded by the Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter (FOM), the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO/OCW), IARPA, an ERC Synergy Grant, the China Scholarship Council, and Intel Corporation.

Crowd-sourced pictures geo-localization method based on street view images and 3D reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Liang; Yuan, Yi; Xia, Nan; Chen, Song; Chen, Yanming; Yang, Kang; Ma, Lei; Li, Manchun

2018-07-01

People are increasingly becoming accustomed to taking photos of everyday life in modern cities and uploading them on major photo-sharing social media sites. These sites contain numerous pictures, but some have incomplete or blurred location information. The geo-localization of crowd-sourced pictures enriches the information contained therein, and is applicable to activities such as urban construction, urban landscape analysis, and crime tracking. However, geo-localization faces huge technical challenges. This paper proposes a method for large-scale geo-localization of crowd-sourced pictures. Our approach uses structured, organized Street View images as a reference dataset and employs a three-step strategy of coarse geo-localization by image retrieval, selecting reliable matches by image registration, and fine geo-localization by 3D reconstruction to attach geographic tags to pictures from unidentified sources. In study area, 3D reconstruction based on close-range photogrammetry is used to restore the 3D geographical information of the crowd-sourced pictures, resulting in the proposed method improving the median error from 256.7 m to 69.0 m, and the percentage of the geo-localized query pictures under a 50 m error from 17.2% to 43.2% compared with the previous method. Another discovery using the proposed method is that, in respect of the causes of reconstruction error, closer distances from the cameras to the main objects in query pictures tend to produce lower errors and the component of error parallel to the road makes a more significant contribution to the Total Error. The proposed method is not limited to small areas, and could be expanded to cities and larger areas owing to its flexible parameters.

An Application of Multivariate Generalizability in Selection of Mathematically Gifted Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Sungyeun; Berebitsky, Dan

2016-01-01

This study investigates error sources and the effects of each error source to determine optimal weights of the composite score of teacher recommendation letters and self-introduction letters using multivariate generalizability theory. Data were collected from the science education institute for the gifted attached to the university located within…

Estimating Uncertainty in Annual Forest Inventory Estimates

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Veronica C. Lessard

1999-01-01

The precision of annual forest inventory estimates may be negatively affected by uncertainty from a variety of sources including: (1) sampling error; (2) procedures for updating plots not measured in the current year; and (3) measurement errors. The impact of these sources of uncertainty on final inventory estimates is investigated using Monte Carlo simulation...

Developing Performance Estimates for High Precision Astrometry with TMT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeck, Matthias; Do, Tuan; Ellerbroek, Brent; Herriot, Glen; Meyer, Leo; Suzuki, Ryuji; Wang, Lianqi; Yelda, Sylvana

2013-12-01

Adaptive optics on Extremely Large Telescopes will open up many new science cases or expand existing science into regimes unattainable with the current generation of telescopes. One example of this is high-precision astrometry, which has requirements in the range from 10 to 50 micro-arc-seconds for some instruments and science cases. Achieving these requirements imposes stringent constraints on the design of the entire observatory, but also on the calibration procedures, observing sequences and the data analysis techniques. This paper summarizes our efforts to develop a top down astrometry error budget for TMT. It is predominantly developed for the first-light AO system, NFIRAOS, and the IRIS instrument, but many terms are applicable to other configurations as well. Astrometry error sources are divided into 5 categories: Reference source and catalog errors, atmospheric refraction correction errors, other residual atmospheric effects, opto-mechanical errors and focal plane measurement errors. Results are developed in parametric form whenever possible. However, almost every error term in the error budget depends on the details of the astrometry observations, such as whether absolute or differential astrometry is the goal, whether one observes a sparse or crowded field, what the time scales of interest are, etc. Thus, it is not possible to develop a single error budget that applies to all science cases and separate budgets are developed and detailed for key astrometric observations. Our error budget is consistent with the requirements for differential astrometry of tens of micro-arc-seconds for certain science cases. While no show stoppers have been found, the work has resulted in several modifications to the NFIRAOS optical surface specifications and reference source design that will help improve the achievable astrometry precision even further.

Surface characterization protocol for precision aspheric optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarepaka, RamaGopal V.; Sakthibalan, Siva; Doodala, Somaiah; Panwar, Rakesh S.; Kotaria, Rajendra

2017-10-01

In Advanced Optical Instrumentation, Aspherics provide an effective performance alternative. The aspheric fabrication and surface metrology, followed by aspheric design are complementary iterative processes for Precision Aspheric development. As in fabrication, a holistic approach of aspheric surface characterization is adopted to evaluate actual surface error and to aim at the deliverance of aspheric optics with desired surface quality. Precision optical surfaces are characterized by profilometry or by interferometry. Aspheric profiles are characterized by contact profilometers, through linear surface scans to analyze their Form, Figure and Finish errors. One must ensure that, the surface characterization procedure does not add to the resident profile errors (generated during the aspheric surface fabrication). This presentation examines the errors introduced post-surface generation and during profilometry of aspheric profiles. This effort is to identify sources of errors and is to optimize the metrology process. The sources of error during profilometry may be due to: profilometer settings, work-piece placement on the profilometer stage, selection of zenith/nadir points of aspheric profiles, metrology protocols, clear aperture - diameter analysis, computational limitations of the profiler and the software issues etc. At OPTICA, a PGI 1200 FTS contact profilometer (Taylor-Hobson make) is used for this study. Precision Optics of various profiles are studied, with due attention to possible sources of errors during characterization, with multi-directional scan approach for uniformity and repeatability of error estimation. This study provides an insight of aspheric surface characterization and helps in optimal aspheric surface production methodology.

Information-Gathering Patterns Associated with Higher Rates of Diagnostic Error

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delzell, John E., Jr.; Chumley, Heidi; Webb, Russell; Chakrabarti, Swapan; Relan, Anju

2009-01-01

Diagnostic errors are an important source of medical errors. Problematic information-gathering is a common cause of diagnostic errors among physicians and medical students. The objectives of this study were to (1) determine if medical students' information-gathering patterns formed clusters of similar strategies, and if so (2) to calculate the…

More on Systematic Error in a Boyle's Law Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCall, Richard P.

2012-01-01

A recent article in "The Physics Teacher" describes a method for analyzing a systematic error in a Boyle's law laboratory activity. Systematic errors are important to consider in physics labs because they tend to bias the results of measurements. There are numerous laboratory examples and resources that discuss this common source of error.

Enhanced orbit determination filter sensitivity analysis: Error budget development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estefan, J. A.; Burkhart, P. D.

1994-01-01

An error budget analysis is presented which quantifies the effects of different error sources in the orbit determination process when the enhanced orbit determination filter, recently developed, is used to reduce radio metric data. The enhanced filter strategy differs from more traditional filtering methods in that nearly all of the principal ground system calibration errors affecting the data are represented as filter parameters. Error budget computations were performed for a Mars Observer interplanetary cruise scenario for cases in which only X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler data were used to determine the spacecraft's orbit, X-band ranging data were used exclusively, and a combined set in which the ranging data were used in addition to the Doppler data. In all three cases, the filter model was assumed to be a correct representation of the physical world. Random nongravitational accelerations were found to be the largest source of error contributing to the individual error budgets. Other significant contributors, depending on the data strategy used, were solar-radiation pressure coefficient uncertainty, random earth-orientation calibration errors, and Deep Space Network (DSN) station location uncertainty.

Adult age differences in unconscious transference: source confusion or identity blending?

PubMed

Perfect, Timothy J; Harris, Lucy J

2003-06-01

Eyewitnesses are known often to falsely identify a familiar but innocent bystander when asked to pick out a perpetrator from a lineup. Such unconscious transference errors have been attributed to either identity confusions at encoding or source retrieval errors. Three experiments contrasted younger and older adults in their susceptibility to such misidentifications. Participants saw photographs of perpetrators, then a series of mug shots of innocent bystanders. A week later, they saw lineups containing bystanders (and others containing perpetrators in Experiment 3) and were asked whether any of the perpetrators were present. When younger faces were used as stimuli (Experiments 1 and 3), older adults showed higher rates of transference errors. When older faces were used as stimuli (Experiments 2 and 3), no such age effects in rates of unconscious transference were apparent. In addition, older adults in Experiment 3 showed an own-age bias effect for correct identification of targets. Unconscious transference errors were found to be due to both source retrieval errors and identity confusions, but age-related increases were found only in the latter.

Investigating the error sources of the online state of charge estimation methods for lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yuejiu; Ouyang, Minggao; Han, Xuebing; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu

2018-02-01

Sate of charge (SOC) estimation is generally acknowledged as one of the most important functions in battery management system for lithium-ion batteries in new energy vehicles. Though every effort is made for various online SOC estimation methods to reliably increase the estimation accuracy as much as possible within the limited on-chip resources, little literature discusses the error sources for those SOC estimation methods. This paper firstly reviews the commonly studied SOC estimation methods from a conventional classification. A novel perspective focusing on the error analysis of the SOC estimation methods is proposed. SOC estimation methods are analyzed from the views of the measured values, models, algorithms and state parameters. Subsequently, the error flow charts are proposed to analyze the error sources from the signal measurement to the models and algorithms for the widely used online SOC estimation methods in new energy vehicles. Finally, with the consideration of the working conditions, choosing more reliable and applicable SOC estimation methods is discussed, and the future development of the promising online SOC estimation methods is suggested.

CDOM fluorescence as a proxy of DOC concentration in natural waters: a comparison of four contrasting tropical systems.

PubMed

Rochelle-Newall, E; Hulot, F D; Janeau, J L; Merroune, A

2014-01-01

Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence or absorption is often proposed as a rapid alternative to chemical methods for the estimation of bulk dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in natural waters. However, the robustness of this method across a wide range of systems remains to be shown. We measured CDOM fluorescence and DOC concentration in four tropical freshwater and coastal environments (estuary and coastal, tropical shallow lakes, water from the freshwater lens of two small islands, and soil leachates). We found that although this method can provide an estimation of DOC concentration in sites with low variability in DOC and CDOM sources in systems where the variability of DOC and CDOM sources are high, this method should not be used as it will lead to errors in the estimation of the bulk DOC concentration.

Numerical simulation of tonal fan noise of computers and air conditioning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, A. A.; Gavrilyuk, V. N.; Timushev, S. F.

2016-07-01

Current approaches to fan noise simulation are mainly based on the Lighthill equation and socalled aeroacoustic analogy, which are also based on the transformed Lighthill equation, such as the wellknown FW-H equation or the Kirchhoff theorem. A disadvantage of such methods leading to significant modeling errors is associated with incorrect solution of the decomposition problem, i.e., separation of acoustic and vortex (pseudosound) modes in the area of the oscillation source. In this paper, we propose a method for tonal noise simulation based on the mesh solution of the Helmholtz equation for the Fourier transform of pressure perturbation with boundary conditions in the form of the complex impedance. A noise source is placed on the surface surrounding each fan rotor. The acoustic fan power is determined by the acoustic-vortex method, which ensures more accurate decomposition and determination of the pressure pulsation amplitudes in the near field of the fan.

[The error, source of learning].

PubMed

Joyeux, Stéphanie; Bohic, Valérie

2016-05-01

The error itself is not recognised as a fault. It is the intentionality which differentiates between an error and a fault. An error is unintentional while a fault is a failure to respect known rules. The risk of error is omnipresent in health institutions. Public authorities have therefore set out a series of measures to reduce this risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Types of Possible Survey Errors in Estimates Published in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

This document lists types of potential errors in EIA estimates published in the WNGSR. Survey errors are an unavoidable aspect of data collection. Error is inherent in all collected data, regardless of the source of the data and the care and competence of data collectors. The type and extent of error depends on the type and characteristics of the survey.

An Analysis of Computational Errors in the Use of Division Algorithms by Fourth-Grade Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stefanich, Greg P.; Rokusek, Teri

1992-01-01

Presents a study that analyzed errors made by randomly chosen fourth grade students (25 of 57) while using the division algorithm and investigated the effect of remediation on identified systematic errors. Results affirm that error pattern diagnosis and directed remediation lead to new learning and long-term retention. (MDH)

How EFL Students Can Use Google to Correct Their "Untreatable" Written Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geiller, Luc

2014-01-01

This paper presents the findings of an experiment in which a group of 17 French post-secondary EFL learners used Google to self-correct several "untreatable" written errors. Whether or not error correction leads to improved writing has been much debated, some researchers dismissing it is as useless and others arguing that error feedback…

A spectrally tunable solid-state source for radiometric, photometric, and colorimetric applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryc, Irena; Brown, Steven W.; Eppeldauer, George P.; Ohno, Yoshihiro

2004-10-01

A spectrally tunable light source using a large number of LEDs and an integrating sphere has been designed and being developed at NIST. The source is designed to have a capability of producing any spectral distributions mimicking various light sources in the visible region by feedback control of individual LEDs. The output spectral irradiance or radiance of the source will be calibrated by a reference instrument, and the source will be used as a spectroradiometric as well as photometric and colorimetric standard. The use of the tunable source mimicking spectra of display colors, for example, rather than a traditional incandescent standard lamp for calibration of colorimeters, can reduce the spectral mismatch errors of the colorimeter measuring displays significantly. A series of simulations have been conducted to predict the performance of the designed tunable source when used for calibration of colorimeters. The results indicate that the errors can be reduced by an order of magnitude compared with those when the colorimeters are calibrated against Illuminant A. Stray light errors of a spectroradiometer can also be effectively reduced by using the tunable source producing a blackbody spectrum at higher temperature (e.g., 9000 K). The source can also approximate various CIE daylight illuminants and common lamp spectral distributions for other photometric and colorimetric applications.

Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. C.; Alden, C.; White, J. W. C.

2014-10-01

Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of C in the atmosphere, ocean, and land; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate error and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2 σ error of the atmospheric growth rate has decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 2000s, leading to a ~20% reduction in the over-all uncertainty of net global C uptake by the biosphere. While fossil fuel emissions have increased by a factor of 4 over the last 5 decades, 2 σ errors in fossil fuel emissions due to national reporting errors and differences in energy reporting practices have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr-1 during the 2000s. At the same time land use emissions have declined slightly over the last 5 decades, but their relative errors remain high. Notably, errors associated with fossil fuel emissions have come to dominate uncertainty in the global C budget and are now comparable to the total emissions from land use, thus efforts to reduce errors in fossil fuel emissions are necessary. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that C uptake has increased and 97% confident that C uptake by the terrestrial biosphere has increased over the last 5 decades. Although the persistence of future C sinks remains unknown and some ecosystem services may be compromised by this continued C uptake (e.g. ocean acidification), it is clear that arguably the greatest ecosystem service currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere.

Error rates in forensic DNA analysis: definition, numbers, impact and communication.

PubMed

Kloosterman, Ate; Sjerps, Marjan; Quak, Astrid

2014-09-01

Forensic DNA casework is currently regarded as one of the most important types of forensic evidence, and important decisions in intelligence and justice are based on it. However, errors occasionally occur and may have very serious consequences. In other domains, error rates have been defined and published. The forensic domain is lagging behind concerning this transparency for various reasons. In this paper we provide definitions and observed frequencies for different types of errors at the Human Biological Traces Department of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) over the years 2008-2012. Furthermore, we assess their actual and potential impact and describe how the NFI deals with the communication of these numbers to the legal justice system. We conclude that the observed relative frequency of quality failures is comparable to studies from clinical laboratories and genetic testing centres. Furthermore, this frequency is constant over the five-year study period. The most common causes of failures related to the laboratory process were contamination and human error. Most human errors could be corrected, whereas gross contamination in crime samples often resulted in irreversible consequences. Hence this type of contamination is identified as the most significant source of error. Of the known contamination incidents, most were detected by the NFI quality control system before the report was issued to the authorities, and thus did not lead to flawed decisions like false convictions. However in a very limited number of cases crucial errors were detected after the report was issued, sometimes with severe consequences. Many of these errors were made in the post-analytical phase. The error rates reported in this paper are useful for quality improvement and benchmarking, and contribute to an open research culture that promotes public trust. However, they are irrelevant in the context of a particular case. Here case-specific probabilities of undetected errors are needed. These should be reported, separately from the match probability, when requested by the court or when there are internal or external indications for error. It should also be made clear that there are various other issues to consider, like DNA transfer. Forensic statistical models, in particular Bayesian networks, may be useful to take the various uncertainties into account and demonstrate their effects on the evidential value of the forensic DNA results. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Restoration of the ASCA Source Position Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gotthelf, E. V.; Ueda, Y.; Fujimoto, R.; Kii, T.; Yamaoka, K.

2000-11-01

We present a calibration of the absolute pointing accuracy of the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA) which allows us to compensate for a large error (up to 1') in the derived source coordinates. We parameterize a temperature dependent deviation of the attitude solution which is responsible for this error. By analyzing ASCA coordinates of 100 bright active galactic nuclei, we show that it is possible to reduce the uncertainty in the sky position for any given observation by a factor of 4. The revised 90% error circle radius is then 12", consistent with preflight specifications, effectively restoring the full ASCA pointing accuracy. Herein, we derive an algorithm which compensates for this attitude error and present an internet-based table to be used to correct post facto the coordinate of all ASCA observations. While the above error circle is strictly applicable to data taken with the on-board Solid-state Imaging Spectrometers (SISs), similar coordinate corrections are derived for data obtained with the Gas Imaging Spectrometers (GISs), which, however, have additional instrumental uncertainties. The 90% error circle radius for the central 20' diameter of the GIS is 24". The large reduction in the error circle area for the two instruments offers the opportunity to greatly enhance the search for X-ray counterparts at other wavelengths. This has important implications for current and future ASCA source catalogs and surveys.

Quality of Best Possible Medication History upon Admission to Hospital: Comparison of Nurses and Pharmacy Students and Consideration of National Quality Indicators.

PubMed

Sproul, Ashley; Goodine, Carole; Moore, David; McLeod, Amy; Gordon, Jacqueline; Digby, Jennifer; Stoica, George

2018-01-01

Medication reconciliation at transitions of care increases patient safety. Collection of an accurate best possible medication history (BPMH) on admission is a key step. National quality indicators are used as surrogate markers for BPMH quality, but no literature on their accuracy exists. Obtaining a high-quality BPMH is often labour- and resource-intensive. Pharmacy students are now being assigned to obtain BPMHs, as a cost-effective means to increase BPMH completion, despite limited information to support the quality of BPMHs obtained by students relative to other health care professionals. To determine whether the national quality indicator of using more than one source to complete a BPMH is a true marker of quality and to assess whether BPMHs obtained by pharmacy students were of quality equal to those obtained by nurses. This prospective trial compared BPMHs for the same group of patients collected by nurses and by trained pharmacy students in the emergency departments of 2 sites within a large health network over a 2-month period (July and August 2016). Discrepancies between the 2 versions were identified by a pharmacist, who determined which party (nurse, pharmacy student, or both) had made an error. A panel of experts reviewed the errors and ranked their severity. BPMHs were prepared for a total of 40 patients. Those prepared by nurses were more likely to contain an error than those prepared by pharmacy students (171 versus 43 errors, p = 0.006). There was a nonsignificant trend toward less severe errors in BPMHs completed by pharmacy students. There was no significant difference in the mean number of errors in relation to the specified quality indicator (mean of 2.7 errors for BPMHs prepared from 1 source versus 4.8 errors for BPMHs prepared from ≥ 2 sources, p = 0.08). The surrogate marker (number of BPMH sources) may not reflect BPMH quality. However, it appears that BPMHs prepared by pharmacy students had fewer errors and were of similar quality (in terms of clinically significant errors) relative to those prepared by nurses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Passarge, M; Fix, M K; Manser, P

Purpose: To create and test an accurate EPID-frame-based VMAT QA metric to detect gross dose errors in real-time and to provide information about the source of error. Methods: A Swiss cheese model was created for an EPID-based real-time QA process. The system compares a treatmentplan- based reference set of EPID images with images acquired over each 2° gantry angle interval. The metric utilizes a sequence of independent consecutively executed error detection Methods: a masking technique that verifies infield radiation delivery and ensures no out-of-field radiation; output normalization checks at two different stages; global image alignment to quantify rotation, scaling andmore » translation; standard gamma evaluation (3%, 3 mm) and pixel intensity deviation checks including and excluding high dose gradient regions. Tolerances for each test were determined. For algorithm testing, twelve different types of errors were selected to modify the original plan. Corresponding predictions for each test case were generated, which included measurement-based noise. Each test case was run multiple times (with different noise per run) to assess the ability to detect introduced errors. Results: Averaged over five test runs, 99.1% of all plan variations that resulted in patient dose errors were detected within 2° and 100% within 4° (∼1% of patient dose delivery). Including cases that led to slightly modified but clinically equivalent plans, 91.5% were detected by the system within 2°. Based on the type of method that detected the error, determination of error sources was achieved. Conclusion: An EPID-based during-treatment error detection system for VMAT deliveries was successfully designed and tested. The system utilizes a sequence of methods to identify and prevent gross treatment delivery errors. The system was inspected for robustness with realistic noise variations, demonstrating that it has the potential to detect a large majority of errors in real-time and indicate the error source. J. V. Siebers receives funding support from Varian Medical Systems.« less

Quantifying uncertainty in carbon and nutrient pools of coarse woody debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

See, C. R.; Campbell, J. L.; Fraver, S.; Domke, G. M.; Harmon, M. E.; Knoepp, J. D.; Woodall, C. W.

2016-12-01

Woody detritus constitutes a major pool of both carbon and nutrients in forested ecosystems. Estimating coarse wood stocks relies on many assumptions, even when full surveys are conducted. Researchers rarely report error in coarse wood pool estimates, despite the importance to ecosystem budgets and modelling efforts. To date, no study has attempted a comprehensive assessment of error rates and uncertainty inherent in the estimation of this pool. Here, we use Monte Carlo analysis to propagate the error associated with the major sources of uncertainty present in the calculation of coarse wood carbon and nutrient (i.e., N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Na) pools. We also evaluate individual sources of error to identify the importance of each source of uncertainty in our estimates. We quantify sampling error by comparing the three most common field methods used to survey coarse wood (two transect methods and a whole-plot survey). We quantify the measurement error associated with length and diameter measurement, and technician error in species identification and decay class using plots surveyed by multiple technicians. We use previously published values of model error for the four most common methods of volume estimation: Smalian's, conical frustum, conic paraboloid, and average-of-ends. We also use previously published values for error in the collapse ratio (cross-sectional height/width) of decayed logs that serves as a surrogate for the volume remaining. We consider sampling error in chemical concentration and density for all decay classes, using distributions from both published and unpublished studies. Analytical uncertainty is calculated using standard reference plant material from the National Institute of Standards. Our results suggest that technician error in decay classification can have a large effect on uncertainty, since many of the error distributions included in the calculation (e.g. density, chemical concentration, volume-model selection, collapse ratio) are decay-class specific.

Microseismic imaging using a source function independent full waveform inversion method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hanchen; Alkhalifah, Tariq

2018-07-01

At the heart of microseismic event measurements is the task to estimate the location of the source microseismic events, as well as their ignition times. The accuracy of locating the sources is highly dependent on the velocity model. On the other hand, the conventional microseismic source locating methods require, in many cases, manual picking of traveltime arrivals, which do not only lead to manual effort and human interaction, but also prone to errors. Using full waveform inversion (FWI) to locate and image microseismic events allows for an automatic process (free of picking) that utilizes the full wavefield. However, FWI of microseismic events faces incredible nonlinearity due to the unknown source locations (space) and functions (time). We developed a source function independent FWI of microseismic events to invert for the source image, source function and the velocity model. It is based on convolving reference traces with these observed and modelled to mitigate the effect of an unknown source ignition time. The adjoint-state method is used to derive the gradient for the source image, source function and velocity updates. The extended image for the source wavelet in Z axis is extracted to check the accuracy of the inverted source image and velocity model. Also, angle gathers are calculated to assess the quality of the long wavelength component of the velocity model. By inverting for the source image, source wavelet and the velocity model simultaneously, the proposed method produces good estimates of the source location, ignition time and the background velocity for synthetic examples used here, like those corresponding to the Marmousi model and the SEG/EAGE overthrust model.

Error management for musicians: an interdisciplinary conceptual framework

PubMed Central

Kruse-Weber, Silke; Parncutt, Richard

2014-01-01

Musicians tend to strive for flawless performance and perfection, avoiding errors at all costs. Dealing with errors while practicing or performing is often frustrating and can lead to anger and despair, which can explain musicians’ generally negative attitude toward errors and the tendency to aim for flawless learning in instrumental music education. But even the best performances are rarely error-free, and research in general pedagogy and psychology has shown that errors provide useful information for the learning process. Research in instrumental pedagogy is still neglecting error issues; the benefits of risk management (before the error) and error management (during and after the error) are still underestimated. It follows that dealing with errors is a key aspect of music practice at home, teaching, and performance in public. And yet, to be innovative, or to make their performance extraordinary, musicians need to risk errors. Currently, most music students only acquire the ability to manage errors implicitly – or not at all. A more constructive, creative, and differentiated culture of errors would balance error tolerance and risk-taking against error prevention in ways that enhance music practice and music performance. The teaching environment should lay the foundation for the development of such an approach. In this contribution, we survey recent research in aviation, medicine, economics, psychology, and interdisciplinary decision theory that has demonstrated that specific error-management training can promote metacognitive skills that lead to better adaptive transfer and better performance skills. We summarize how this research can be applied to music, and survey-relevant research that is specifically tailored to the needs of musicians, including generic guidelines for risk and error management in music teaching and performance. On this basis, we develop a conceptual framework for risk management that can provide orientation for further music education and musicians at all levels. PMID:25120501

Error management for musicians: an interdisciplinary conceptual framework.

PubMed

Kruse-Weber, Silke; Parncutt, Richard

2014-01-01

Musicians tend to strive for flawless performance and perfection, avoiding errors at all costs. Dealing with errors while practicing or performing is often frustrating and can lead to anger and despair, which can explain musicians' generally negative attitude toward errors and the tendency to aim for flawless learning in instrumental music education. But even the best performances are rarely error-free, and research in general pedagogy and psychology has shown that errors provide useful information for the learning process. Research in instrumental pedagogy is still neglecting error issues; the benefits of risk management (before the error) and error management (during and after the error) are still underestimated. It follows that dealing with errors is a key aspect of music practice at home, teaching, and performance in public. And yet, to be innovative, or to make their performance extraordinary, musicians need to risk errors. Currently, most music students only acquire the ability to manage errors implicitly - or not at all. A more constructive, creative, and differentiated culture of errors would balance error tolerance and risk-taking against error prevention in ways that enhance music practice and music performance. The teaching environment should lay the foundation for the development of such an approach. In this contribution, we survey recent research in aviation, medicine, economics, psychology, and interdisciplinary decision theory that has demonstrated that specific error-management training can promote metacognitive skills that lead to better adaptive transfer and better performance skills. We summarize how this research can be applied to music, and survey-relevant research that is specifically tailored to the needs of musicians, including generic guidelines for risk and error management in music teaching and performance. On this basis, we develop a conceptual framework for risk management that can provide orientation for further music education and musicians at all levels.

Uncertainty Analysis of Seebeck Coefficient and Electrical Resistivity Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackey, Jon; Sehirlioglu, Alp; Dynys, Fred

2014-01-01

In order to provide a complete description of a materials thermoelectric power factor, in addition to the measured nominal value, an uncertainty interval is required. The uncertainty may contain sources of measurement error including systematic bias error and precision error of a statistical nature. The work focuses specifically on the popular ZEM-3 (Ulvac Technologies) measurement system, but the methods apply to any measurement system. The analysis accounts for sources of systematic error including sample preparation tolerance, measurement probe placement, thermocouple cold-finger effect, and measurement parameters; in addition to including uncertainty of a statistical nature. Complete uncertainty analysis of a measurement system allows for more reliable comparison of measurement data between laboratories.

Phase noise optimization in temporal phase-shifting digital holography with partial coherence light sources and its application in quantitative cell imaging.

PubMed

Remmersmann, Christian; Stürwald, Stephan; Kemper, Björn; Langehanenberg, Patrik; von Bally, Gert

2009-03-10

In temporal phase-shifting-based digital holographic microscopy, high-resolution phase contrast imaging requires optimized conditions for hologram recording and phase retrieval. To optimize the phase resolution, for the example of a variable three-step algorithm, a theoretical analysis on statistical errors, digitalization errors, uncorrelated errors, and errors due to a misaligned temporal phase shift is carried out. In a second step the theoretically predicted results are compared to the measured phase noise obtained from comparative experimental investigations with several coherent and partially coherent light sources. Finally, the applicability for noise reduction is demonstrated by quantitative phase contrast imaging of pancreas tumor cells.

A new method for determining the optimal lagged ensemble

PubMed Central

DelSole, T.; Tippett, M. K.; Pegion, K.

2017-01-01

Abstract We propose a general methodology for determining the lagged ensemble that minimizes the mean square forecast error. The MSE of a lagged ensemble is shown to depend only on a quantity called the cross‐lead error covariance matrix, which can be estimated from a short hindcast data set and parameterized in terms of analytic functions of time. The resulting parameterization allows the skill of forecasts to be evaluated for an arbitrary ensemble size and initialization frequency. Remarkably, the parameterization also can estimate the MSE of a burst ensemble simply by taking the limit of an infinitely small interval between initialization times. This methodology is applied to forecasts of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) from version 2 of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). For leads greater than a week, little improvement is found in the MJO forecast skill when ensembles larger than 5 days are used or initializations greater than 4 times per day. We find that if the initialization frequency is too infrequent, important structures of the lagged error covariance matrix are lost. Lastly, we demonstrate that the forecast error at leads ≥10 days can be reduced by optimally weighting the lagged ensemble members. The weights are shown to depend only on the cross‐lead error covariance matrix. While the methodology developed here is applied to CFSv2, the technique can be easily adapted to other forecast systems. PMID:28580050

Logic-based assessment of the compatibility of UMLS ontology sources

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The UMLS Metathesaurus (UMLS-Meta) is currently the most comprehensive effort for integrating independently-developed medical thesauri and ontologies. UMLS-Meta is being used in many applications, including PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov. The integration of new sources combines automatic techniques, expert assessment, and auditing protocols. The automatic techniques currently in use, however, are mostly based on lexical algorithms and often disregard the semantics of the sources being integrated. Results In this paper, we argue that UMLS-Meta’s current design and auditing methodologies could be significantly enhanced by taking into account the logic-based semantics of the ontology sources. We provide empirical evidence suggesting that UMLS-Meta in its 2009AA version contains a significant number of errors; these errors become immediately apparent if the rich semantics of the ontology sources is taken into account, manifesting themselves as unintended logical consequences that follow from the ontology sources together with the information in UMLS-Meta. We then propose general principles and specific logic-based techniques to effectively detect and repair such errors. Conclusions Our results suggest that the methodologies employed in the design of UMLS-Meta are not only very costly in terms of human effort, but also error-prone. The techniques presented here can be useful for both reducing human effort in the design and maintenance of UMLS-Meta and improving the quality of its contents. PMID:21388571

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, S.; Grace, M.; Williams, D.

1999-01-01

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

General model for the pointing error analysis of Risley-prism system based on ray direction deviation in light refraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hao; Yuan, Yan; Su, Lijuan; Huang, Fengzhen; Bai, Qing

2016-09-01

The Risley-prism-based light beam steering apparatus delivers superior pointing accuracy and it is used in imaging LIDAR and imaging microscopes. A general model for pointing error analysis of the Risley prisms is proposed in this paper, based on ray direction deviation in light refraction. This model captures incident beam deviation, assembly deflections, and prism rotational error. We derive the transmission matrixes of the model firstly. Then, the independent and cumulative effects of different errors are analyzed through this model. Accuracy study of the model shows that the prediction deviation of pointing error for different error is less than 4.1×10-5° when the error amplitude is 0.1°. Detailed analyses of errors indicate that different error sources affect the pointing accuracy to varying degree, and the major error source is the incident beam deviation. The prism tilting has a relative big effect on the pointing accuracy when prism tilts in the principal section. The cumulative effect analyses of multiple errors represent that the pointing error can be reduced by tuning the bearing tilting in the same direction. The cumulative effect of rotational error is relative big when the difference of these two prism rotational angles equals 0 or π, while it is relative small when the difference equals π/2. The novelty of these results suggests that our analysis can help to uncover the error distribution and aid in measurement calibration of Risley-prism systems.

[Epidemiology of refractive errors].

PubMed

Wolfram, C

2017-07-01

Refractive errors are very common and can lead to severe pathological changes in the eye. This article analyzes the epidemiology of refractive errors in the general population in Germany and worldwide and describes common definitions for refractive errors and clinical characteristics for pathologicaal changes. Refractive errors differ between age groups due to refractive changes during the life time and also due to generation-specific factors. Current research about the etiology of refractive errors has strengthened the influence of environmental factors, which led to new strategies for the prevention of refractive pathologies.

Unforced errors and error reduction in tennis

PubMed Central

Brody, H

2006-01-01

Only at the highest level of tennis is the number of winners comparable to the number of unforced errors. As the average player loses many more points due to unforced errors than due to winners by an opponent, if the rate of unforced errors can be reduced, it should lead to an increase in points won. This article shows how players can improve their game by understanding and applying the laws of physics to reduce the number of unforced errors. PMID:16632568

Adaptive control system for pulsed megawatt klystrons

DOEpatents

Bolie, Victor W.

1992-01-01

The invention provides an arrangement for reducing waveform errors such as errors in phase or amplitude in output pulses produced by pulsed power output devices such as klystrons by generating an error voltage representing the extent of error still present in the trailing edge of the previous output pulse, using the error voltage to provide a stored control voltage, and applying the stored control voltage to the pulsed power output device to limit the extent of error in the leading edge of the next output pulse.

Descriptive analysis of medication errors reported to the Egyptian national online reporting system during six months.

PubMed

Shehata, Zahraa Hassan Abdelrahman; Sabri, Nagwa Ali; Elmelegy, Ahmed Abdelsalam

2016-03-01

This study analyzes reports to the Egyptian medication error (ME) reporting system from June to December 2014. Fifty hospital pharmacists received training on ME reporting using the national reporting system. All received reports were reviewed and analyzed. The pieces of data analyzed were patient age, gender, clinical setting, stage, type, medication(s), outcome, cause(s), and recommendation(s). Over the course of 6 months, 12,000 valid reports were gathered and included in this analysis. The majority (66%) came from inpatient settings, while 23% came from intensive care units, and 11% came from outpatient departments. Prescribing errors were the most common type of MEs (54%), followed by monitoring (25%) and administration errors (16%). The most frequent error was incorrect dose (20%) followed by drug interactions, incorrect drug, and incorrect frequency. Most reports were potential (25%), prevented (11%), or harmless (51%) errors; only 13% of reported errors lead to patient harm. The top three medication classes involved in reported MEs were antibiotics, drugs acting on the central nervous system, and drugs acting on the cardiovascular system. Causes of MEs were mostly lack of knowledge, environmental factors, lack of drug information sources, and incomplete prescribing. Recommendations for addressing MEs were mainly staff training, local ME reporting, and improving work environment. There are common problems among different healthcare systems, so that sharing experiences on the national level is essential to enable learning from MEs. Internationally, there is a great need for standardizing ME terminology, to facilitate knowledge transfer. Underreporting, inaccurate reporting, and a lack of reporter diversity are some limitations of this study. Egypt now has a national database of MEs that allows researchers and decision makers to assess the problem, identify its root causes, and develop preventive strategies. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

SU-E-J-45: The Correlation Between CBCT Flat Panel Misalignment and 3D Image Guidance Accuracy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kenton, O; Valdes, G; Yin, L

Purpose To simulate the impact of CBCT flat panel misalignment on the image quality, the calculated correction vectors in 3D image guided proton therapy and to determine if these calibration errors can be caught in our QA process. Methods The X-ray source and detector geometrical calibration (flexmap) file of the CBCT system in the AdaPTinsight software (IBA proton therapy) was edited to induce known changes in the rotational and translational calibrations of the imaging panel. Translations of up to ±10 mm in the x, y and z directions (see supplemental) and rotational errors of up to ±3° were induced. Themore » calibration files were then used to reconstruct the CBCT image of a pancreatic patient and CatPhan phantom. Correction vectors were calculated for the patient using the software’s auto match system and compared to baseline values. The CatPhan CBCT images were used for quantitative evaluation of image quality for each type of induced error. Results Translations of 1 to 3 mm in the x and y calibration resulted in corresponding correction vector errors of equal magnitude. Similar 10mm shifts were seen in the y-direction; however, in the x-direction, the image quality was too degraded for a match. These translational errors can be identified through differences in isocenter from orthogonal kV images taken during routine QA. Errors in the z-direction had no effect on the correction vector and image quality.Rotations of the imaging panel calibration resulted in corresponding correction vector rotations of the patient images. These rotations also resulted in degraded image quality which can be identified through quantitative image quality metrics. Conclusion Misalignment of CBCT geometry can lead to incorrect translational and rotational patient correction vectors. These errors can be identified through QA of the imaging isocenter as compared to orthogonal images combined with monitoring of CBCT image quality.« less

SUS Source Level Error Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-01-20

RIECIP1IEN’ CATALOG NUMBER * ITLE (and SubaltIe) S. TYP aof REPORT & _V9RCO SUS~ SOURCE LEVEL ERROR ANALYSIS & Fia 1.r,. -. pAURWORONTIUMm N (s)$S...Fourier Transform (FFTl) SUS Signal model ___ 10 TRA&C (CeEOINIMII1& ro"* *140O tidat n9#*#*Y a"d 0e~ntiff 6T 69*.4 apbt The report provides an analysis ...of major terms which contribute to signal analysis error in a proposed experiment to c-librate sourr - I levels of SUS (Signal Underwater Sound). A

Inference of emission rates from multiple sources using Bayesian probability theory.

PubMed

Yee, Eugene; Flesch, Thomas K

2010-03-01

The determination of atmospheric emission rates from multiple sources using inversion (regularized least-squares or best-fit technique) is known to be very susceptible to measurement and model errors in the problem, rendering the solution unusable. In this paper, a new perspective is offered for this problem: namely, it is argued that the problem should be addressed as one of inference rather than inversion. Towards this objective, Bayesian probability theory is used to estimate the emission rates from multiple sources. The posterior probability distribution for the emission rates is derived, accounting fully for the measurement errors in the concentration data and the model errors in the dispersion model used to interpret the data. The Bayesian inferential methodology for emission rate recovery is validated against real dispersion data, obtained from a field experiment involving various source-sensor geometries (scenarios) consisting of four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors. The recovery of discrete emission rates from three different scenarios obtained using Bayesian inference and singular value decomposition inversion are compared and contrasted.

Advanced X-ray Optics Metrology for Nanofocusing and Coherence Preservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldberg, Kenneth A.; Yashchuk, Valeriy

2007-12-01

What is the point of developing new high-brightness light sources if beamline optics won't be available to realize the goals of nano-focusing and coherence preservation? That was one of the central questions raised during a workshop at the 2007 Advanced Light Source Users Meeting. Titled, 'Advanced X-Ray Optics Metrology for Nano-focusing and Coherence Preservation', the workshop was organized by Kenneth Goldberg and Valeriy Yashchuk (both of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL), and it brought together industry representatives and researchers from Japan, Europe, and the US to discuss the state of the art and to outline the optics requirements of newmore » light sources. Many of the presentations are viewable on the workshop website http://goldberg.lbl.gov/MetrologyWorkshop07/. Many speakers shared the same view of one of the most significant challenges facing the development of new high-brightness third and fourth generation x-ray, soft x-ray, and EUV light sources: these sources place extremely high demands on the surface quality of beamline optics. In many cases, the 1-2-nm surface error specs that define the outer bounds of 'diffraction-limited' quality are beyond the reach of leading facilities and optics vendors. To focus light to 50-nm focal spots, or smaller, from reflective optics and to preserve the high coherent flux that new sources make possible, the optical surface quality and alignment tolerances must be measured in nano-meters and nano-radians. Without a significant, well-supported research effort, including the development of new metrology techniques for use both on and off the beamline, these goals will likely not be met. The scant attention this issue has garnered is evident in the stretched budgets and limited manpower currently dedicated to metrology. With many of the world's leading groups represented at the workshop, it became clear that Japan and Europe are several steps ahead of the US in this critical area. But the situation isn't all dire: several leading groups are blazing a trail forward, and the recognition of this issue is increasing. The workshop featured eleven invited talks whose presenters came from Japan, Europe, and the US.« less

Increased Error-Related Negativity (ERN) in Childhood Anxiety Disorders: ERP and Source Localization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ladouceur, Cecile D.; Dahl, Ronald E.; Birmaher, Boris; Axelson, David A.; Ryan, Neal D.

2006-01-01

Background: In this study we used event-related potentials (ERPs) and source localization analyses to track the time course of neural activity underlying response monitoring in children diagnosed with an anxiety disorder compared to age-matched low-risk normal controls. Methods: High-density ERPs were examined following errors on a flanker task…

Development of Action Monitoring through Adolescence into Adulthood: ERP and Source Localization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ladouceur, Cecile D.; Dahl, Ronald E.; Carter, Cameron S.

2007-01-01

In this study we examined the development of three action monitoring event-related potentials (ERPs)--the error-related negativity (ERN/Ne), error positivity (P[subscript E]) and the N2--and estimated their neural sources. These ERPs were recorded during a flanker task in the following groups: early adolescents (mean age = 12 years), late…

Random Error in Judgment: The Contribution of Encoding and Retrieval Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pleskac, Timothy J.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Rivadeneira, A. Walkyria; Wallsten, Thomas S.

2009-01-01

Theories of confidence judgments have embraced the role random error plays in influencing responses. An important next step is to identify the source(s) of these random effects. To do so, we used the stochastic judgment model (SJM) to distinguish the contribution of encoding and retrieval processes. In particular, we investigated whether dividing…

Q-adjusting technique applied to vertical deflections estimation in a single-axis rotation INS/GPS integrated system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jing; Wang, Xingshu; Wang, Jun; Dai, Dongkai; Xiong, Hao

2016-10-01

Former studies have proved that the attitude error in a single-axis rotation INS/GPS integrated system tracks the high frequency component of the deflections of the vertical (DOV) with a fixed delay and tracking error. This paper analyses the influence of the nominal process noise covariance matrix Q on the tracking error as well as the response delay, and proposed a Q-adjusting technique to obtain the attitude error which can track the DOV better. Simulation results show that different settings of Q lead to different response delay and tracking error; there exists optimal Q which leads to a minimum tracking error and a comparatively short response delay; for systems with different accuracy, different Q-adjusting strategy should be adopted. In this way, the DOV estimation accuracy of using the attitude error as the observation can be improved. According to the simulation results, the DOV estimation accuracy after using the Q-adjusting technique is improved by approximate 23% and 33% respectively compared to that of the Earth Model EGM2008 and the direct attitude difference method.

Measuring the Lense-Thirring precession using a second Lageos satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tapley, B. D.; Ciufolini, I.

1989-01-01

A complete numerical simulation and error analysis was performed for the proposed experiment with the objective of establishing an accurate assessment of the feasibility and the potential accuracy of the measurement of the Lense-Thirring precession. Consideration was given to identifying the error sources which limit the accuracy of the experiment and proposing procedures for eliminating or reducing the effect of these errors. Analytic investigations were conducted to study the effects of major error sources with the objective of providing error bounds on the experiment. The analysis of realistic simulated data is used to demonstrate that satellite laser ranging of two Lageos satellites, orbiting with supplemental inclinations, collected for a period of 3 years or more, can be used to verify the Lense-Thirring precession. A comprehensive covariance analysis for the solution was also developed.

The Use of Neural Networks in Identifying Error Sources in Satellite-Derived Tropical SST Estimates

PubMed Central

Lee, Yung-Hsiang; Ho, Chung-Ru; Su, Feng-Chun; Kuo, Nan-Jung; Cheng, Yu-Hsin

2011-01-01

An neural network model of data mining is used to identify error sources in satellite-derived tropical sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from thermal infrared sensors onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). By using the Back Propagation Network (BPN) algorithm, it is found that air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed variation are the major factors causing the errors of GOES SST products in the tropical Pacific. The accuracy of SST estimates is also improved by the model. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the daily SST estimate is reduced from 0.58 K to 0.38 K and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.03%. For the hourly mean SST estimate, its RMSE is also reduced from 0.66 K to 0.44 K and the MAPE is 1.3%. PMID:22164030

Article Errors in the English Writing of Saudi EFL Preparatory Year Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alhaisoni, Eid; Gaudel, Daya Ram; Al-Zuoud, Khalid M.

2017-01-01

This study aims at providing a comprehensive account of the types of errors produced by Saudi EFL students enrolled in the preparatory year programe in their use of articles, based on the Surface Structure Taxonomies (SST) of errors. The study describes the types, frequency and sources of the definite and indefinite article errors in writing…

An Analysis of Spanish and German Learners' Errors. Working Papers on Bilingualism, No. 7.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LoCoco, Veronica Gonzalez-Mena

This study analyzes Spanish and German errors committed by adult native speakers of English enrolled in elementary and intermediate levels. Four written samples were collected for each target language, over a period of five months. Errors were categorized according to their possible source. Types of errors were ordered according to their…

Spindle Thermal Error Optimization Modeling of a Five-axis Machine Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Qianjian; Fan, Shuo; Xu, Rufeng; Cheng, Xiang; Zhao, Guoyong; Yang, Jianguo

2017-05-01

Aiming at the problem of low machining accuracy and uncontrollable thermal errors of NC machine tools, spindle thermal error measurement, modeling and compensation of a two turntable five-axis machine tool are researched. Measurement experiment of heat sources and thermal errors are carried out, and GRA(grey relational analysis) method is introduced into the selection of temperature variables used for thermal error modeling. In order to analyze the influence of different heat sources on spindle thermal errors, an ANN (artificial neural network) model is presented, and ABC(artificial bee colony) algorithm is introduced to train the link weights of ANN, a new ABC-NN(Artificial bee colony-based neural network) modeling method is proposed and used in the prediction of spindle thermal errors. In order to test the prediction performance of ABC-NN model, an experiment system is developed, the prediction results of LSR (least squares regression), ANN and ABC-NN are compared with the measurement results of spindle thermal errors. Experiment results show that the prediction accuracy of ABC-NN model is higher than LSR and ANN, and the residual error is smaller than 3 μm, the new modeling method is feasible. The proposed research provides instruction to compensate thermal errors and improve machining accuracy of NC machine tools.

Pollutant source identification model for water pollution incidents in small straight rivers based on genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shou-ping; Xin, Xiao-kang

2017-07-01

Identification of pollutant sources for river pollution incidents is an important and difficult task in the emergency rescue, and an intelligent optimization method can effectively compensate for the weakness of traditional methods. An intelligent model for pollutant source identification has been established using the basic genetic algorithm (BGA) as an optimization search tool and applying an analytic solution formula of one-dimensional unsteady water quality equation to construct the objective function. Experimental tests show that the identification model is effective and efficient: the model can accurately figure out the pollutant amounts or positions no matter single pollution source or multiple sources. Especially when the population size of BGA is set as 10, the computing results are sound agree with analytic results for a single source amount and position identification, the relative errors are no more than 5 %. For cases of multi-point sources and multi-variable, there are some errors in computing results for the reasons that there exist many possible combinations of the pollution sources. But, with the help of previous experience to narrow the search scope, the relative errors of the identification results are less than 5 %, which proves the established source identification model can be used to direct emergency responses.

Bias analysis applied to Agricultural Health Study publications to estimate non-random sources of uncertainty.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L

2007-11-26

The associations of pesticide exposure with disease outcomes are estimated without the benefit of a randomized design. For this reason and others, these studies are susceptible to systematic errors. I analyzed studies of the associations between alachlor and glyphosate exposure and cancer incidence, both derived from the Agricultural Health Study cohort, to quantify the bias and uncertainty potentially attributable to systematic error. For each study, I identified the prominent result and important sources of systematic error that might affect it. I assigned probability distributions to the bias parameters that allow quantification of the bias, drew a value at random from each assigned distribution, and calculated the estimate of effect adjusted for the biases. By repeating the draw and adjustment process over multiple iterations, I generated a frequency distribution of adjusted results, from which I obtained a point estimate and simulation interval. These methods were applied without access to the primary record-level dataset. The conventional estimates of effect associating alachlor and glyphosate exposure with cancer incidence were likely biased away from the null and understated the uncertainty by quantifying only random error. For example, the conventional p-value for a test of trend in the alachlor study equaled 0.02, whereas fewer than 20% of the bias analysis iterations yielded a p-value of 0.02 or lower. Similarly, the conventional fully-adjusted result associating glyphosate exposure with multiple myleoma equaled 2.6 with 95% confidence interval of 0.7 to 9.4. The frequency distribution generated by the bias analysis yielded a median hazard ratio equal to 1.5 with 95% simulation interval of 0.4 to 8.9, which was 66% wider than the conventional interval. Bias analysis provides a more complete picture of true uncertainty than conventional frequentist statistical analysis accompanied by a qualitative description of study limitations. The latter approach is likely to lead to overconfidence regarding the potential for causal associations, whereas the former safeguards against such overinterpretations. Furthermore, such analyses, once programmed, allow rapid implementation of alternative assignments of probability distributions to the bias parameters, so elevate the plane of discussion regarding study bias from characterizing studies as "valid" or "invalid" to a critical and quantitative discussion of sources of uncertainty.

Impact of one-layer assumption on diffuse reflectance spectroscopy of skin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennessy, Ricky; Markey, Mia K.; Tunnell, James W.

2015-02-01

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) can be used to noninvasively measure skin properties. To extract skin properties from DRS spectra, you need a model that relates the reflectance to the tissue properties. Most models are based on the assumption that skin is homogenous. In reality, skin is composed of multiple layers, and the homogeneity assumption can lead to errors. In this study, we analyze the errors caused by the homogeneity assumption. This is accomplished by creating realistic skin spectra using a computational model, then extracting properties from those spectra using a one-layer model. The extracted parameters are then compared to the parameters used to create the modeled spectra. We used a wavelength range of 400 to 750 nm and a source detector separation of 250 μm. Our results show that use of a one-layer skin model causes underestimation of hemoglobin concentration [Hb] and melanin concentration [mel]. Additionally, the magnitude of the error is dependent on epidermal thickness. The one-layer assumption also causes [Hb] and [mel] to be correlated. Oxygen saturation is overestimated when it is below 50% and underestimated when it is above 50%. We also found that the vessel radius factor used to account for pigment packaging is correlated with epidermal thickness.

Finding of Correction Factor and Dimensional Error in Bio-AM Model by FDM Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manmadhachary, Aiamunoori; Ravi Kumar, Yennam; Krishnanand, Lanka

2018-06-01

Additive Manufacturing (AM) is the swift manufacturing process, in which input data can be provided from various sources like 3-Dimensional (3D) Computer Aided Design (CAD), Computed Tomography (CT), Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and 3D scanner data. From the CT/MRI data can be manufacture Biomedical Additive Manufacturing (Bio-AM) models. The Bio-AM model gives a better lead on preplanning of oral and maxillofacial surgery. However manufacturing of the accurate Bio-AM model is one of the unsolved problems. The current paper demonstrates error between the Standard Triangle Language (STL) model to Bio-AM model of dry mandible and found correction factor in Bio-AM model with Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) technique. In the present work dry mandible CT images are acquired by CT scanner and supplied into a 3D CAD model in the form of STL model. Further the data is sent to FDM machine for fabrication of Bio-AM model. The difference between Bio-AM to STL model dimensions is considered as dimensional error and the ratio of STL to Bio-AM model dimensions considered as a correction factor. This correction factor helps to fabricate the AM model with accurate dimensions of the patient anatomy. These true dimensional Bio-AM models increasing the safety and accuracy in pre-planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery. The correction factor for Dimension SST 768 FDM AM machine is 1.003 and dimensional error is limited to 0.3 %.

Finding of Correction Factor and Dimensional Error in Bio-AM Model by FDM Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manmadhachary, Aiamunoori; Ravi Kumar, Yennam; Krishnanand, Lanka

2016-06-01

Additive Manufacturing (AM) is the swift manufacturing process, in which input data can be provided from various sources like 3-Dimensional (3D) Computer Aided Design (CAD), Computed Tomography (CT), Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and 3D scanner data. From the CT/MRI data can be manufacture Biomedical Additive Manufacturing (Bio-AM) models. The Bio-AM model gives a better lead on preplanning of oral and maxillofacial surgery. However manufacturing of the accurate Bio-AM model is one of the unsolved problems. The current paper demonstrates error between the Standard Triangle Language (STL) model to Bio-AM model of dry mandible and found correction factor in Bio-AM model with Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) technique. In the present work dry mandible CT images are acquired by CT scanner and supplied into a 3D CAD model in the form of STL model. Further the data is sent to FDM machine for fabrication of Bio-AM model. The difference between Bio-AM to STL model dimensions is considered as dimensional error and the ratio of STL to Bio-AM model dimensions considered as a correction factor. This correction factor helps to fabricate the AM model with accurate dimensions of the patient anatomy. These true dimensional Bio-AM models increasing the safety and accuracy in pre-planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery. The correction factor for Dimension SST 768 FDM AM machine is 1.003 and dimensional error is limited to 0.3 %.

Quantifying uncertainty in geoacoustic inversion. II. Application to broadband, shallow-water data.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Nielsen, Peter L

2002-01-01

This paper applies the new method of fast Gibbs sampling (FGS) to estimate the uncertainties of seabed geoacoustic parameters in a broadband, shallow-water acoustic survey, with the goal of interpreting the survey results and validating the method for experimental data. FGS applies a Bayesian approach to geoacoustic inversion based on sampling the posterior probability density to estimate marginal probability distributions and parameter covariances. This requires knowledge of the statistical distribution of the data errors, including both measurement and theory errors, which is generally not available. Invoking the simplifying assumption of independent, identically distributed Gaussian errors allows a maximum-likelihood estimate of the data variance and leads to a practical inversion algorithm. However, it is necessary to validate these assumptions, i.e., to verify that the parameter uncertainties obtained represent meaningful estimates. To this end, FGS is applied to a geoacoustic experiment carried out at a site off the west coast of Italy where previous acoustic and geophysical studies have been performed. The parameter uncertainties estimated via FGS are validated by comparison with: (i) the variability in the results of inverting multiple independent data sets collected during the experiment; (ii) the results of FGS inversion of synthetic test cases designed to simulate the experiment and data errors; and (iii) the available geophysical ground truth. Comparisons are carried out for a number of different source bandwidths, ranges, and levels of prior information, and indicate that FGS provides reliable and stable uncertainty estimates for the geoacoustic inverse problem.

Improved thermal lattice Boltzmann model for simulation of liquid-vapor phase change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qing; Zhou, P.; Yan, H. J.

2017-12-01

In this paper, an improved thermal lattice Boltzmann (LB) model is proposed for simulating liquid-vapor phase change, which is aimed at improving an existing thermal LB model for liquid-vapor phase change [S. Gong and P. Cheng, Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 55, 4923 (2012), 10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2012.04.037]. First, we emphasize that the replacement of ∇ .(λ ∇ T ) /∇.(λ ∇ T ) ρ cV ρ cV with ∇ .(χ ∇ T ) is an inappropriate treatment for diffuse interface modeling of liquid-vapor phase change. Furthermore, the error terms ∂t 0(T v ) +∇ .(T vv ) , which exist in the macroscopic temperature equation recovered from the previous model, are eliminated in the present model through a way that is consistent with the philosophy of the LB method. Moreover, the discrete effect of the source term is also eliminated in the present model. Numerical simulations are performed for droplet evaporation and bubble nucleation to validate the capability of the model for simulating liquid-vapor phase change. It is shown that the numerical results of the improved model agree well with those of a finite-difference scheme. Meanwhile, it is found that the replacement of ∇ .(λ ∇ T ) /∇ .(λ ∇ T ) ρ cV ρ cV with ∇ .(χ ∇ T ) leads to significant numerical errors and the error terms in the recovered macroscopic temperature equation also result in considerable errors.

Investigation of Point Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) for Transition Detection in Boundary Layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlman, John M.

1999-01-01

A two component Point Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) system has been developed and tested. Improvements were made to an earlier PDV system, in terms of experimental techniques, as well as the data acquisition and reduction software. Measurements of the streamwise and spanwise mean and fluctuating velocities for flows from a rectangular channel and over an NACA 0012 airfoil were made, and the data were compared against hot wire data. The closest to the airfoil surface that PDV measurements could be made was on the order of 0.005 m(0.2", z/c = 0.0169). When the PDV and hot wire data were compared, the time traces for each appeared similar. The mean velocities agreed to within plus or minus 2 m/sec, while the RMS velocities agreed to plus or minus 0.4 m/sec. While the PDV time autocorrelations agreed with those of the hot wire data, the PDV power spectral densities were noisier above 750 Hz. A major source of error in these experiments was determined to be the drifting of the iodine cell stem temperatures. While the stem temperatures were controlled to within plus or minus 0.1 C, this could lead to a frequency shift of as much as 6 MHz, which translates into an error of 1.6 m/sec for the back scatter channel, and up to 6.9 m/sec for the forward scatter channel. These error estimates are consistent with the observed error magnitudes.

Deep 3-GHz observations of the Lockman Hole North with the Very Large Array - I. Source extraction and uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vernstrom, T.; Scott, Douglas; Wall, J. V.; Condon, J. J.; Cotton, W. D.; Perley, R. A.

2016-09-01

This is the first of two papers describing the observations and cataloguing of deep 3-GHz observations of the Lockman Hole North using the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array. The aim of this paper is to investigate, through the use of simulated images, the uncertainties and accuracy of source-finding routines, as well as to quantify systematic effects due to resolution, such as source confusion and source size. While these effects are not new, this work is intended as a particular case study that can be scaled and translated to other surveys. We use the simulations to derive uncertainties in the fitted parameters, as well as bias corrections for the actual catalogue (presented in Paper II). We compare two different source-finding routines, OBIT and AEGEAN, and two different effective resolutions, 8 and 2.75 arcsec. We find that the two routines perform comparably well, with OBIT being slightly better at de-blending sources, but slightly worse at fitting resolved sources. We show that 30-70 per cent of sources are missed or fit inaccurately once the source size becomes larger than the beam, possibly explaining source count errors in high-resolution surveys. We also investigate the effect of blending, finding that any sources with separations smaller than the beam size are fit as single sources. We show that the use of machine-learning techniques can correctly identify blended sources up to 90 per cent of the time, and prior-driven fitting can lead to a 70 per cent improvement in the number of de-blended sources.

Vector velocity volume flow estimation: Sources of error and corrections applied for arteriovenous fistulas.

PubMed

Jensen, Jonas; Olesen, Jacob Bjerring; Stuart, Matthias Bo; Hansen, Peter Møller; Nielsen, Michael Bachmann; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

2016-08-01

A method for vector velocity volume flow estimation is presented, along with an investigation of its sources of error and correction of actual volume flow measurements. Volume flow errors are quantified theoretically by numerical modeling, through flow phantom measurements, and studied in vivo. This paper investigates errors from estimating volumetric flow using a commercial ultrasound scanner and the common assumptions made in the literature. The theoretical model shows, e.g. that volume flow is underestimated by 15%, when the scan plane is off-axis with the vessel center by 28% of the vessel radius. The error sources were also studied in vivo under realistic clinical conditions, and the theoretical results were applied for correcting the volume flow errors. Twenty dialysis patients with arteriovenous fistulas were scanned to obtain vector flow maps of fistulas. When fitting an ellipsis to cross-sectional scans of the fistulas, the major axis was on average 10.2mm, which is 8.6% larger than the minor axis. The ultrasound beam was on average 1.5mm from the vessel center, corresponding to 28% of the semi-major axis in an average fistula. Estimating volume flow with an elliptical, rather than circular, vessel area and correcting the ultrasound beam for being off-axis, gave a significant (p=0.008) reduction in error from 31.2% to 24.3%. The error is relative to the Ultrasound Dilution Technique, which is considered the gold standard for volume flow estimation for dialysis patients. The study shows the importance of correcting for volume flow errors, which are often made in clinical practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating Aboveground Biomass in Tropical Forests: Field Methods and Error Analysis for the Calibration of Remote Sensing Observations

DOE PAGES

Gonçalves, Fabio; Treuhaft, Robert; Law, Beverly; ...

2017-01-07

Mapping and monitoring of forest carbon stocks across large areas in the tropics will necessarily rely on remote sensing approaches, which in turn depend on field estimates of biomass for calibration and validation purposes. Here, we used field plot data collected in a tropical moist forest in the central Amazon to gain a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with plot-level biomass estimates obtained specifically for the calibration of remote sensing measurements. In addition to accounting for sources of error that would be normally expected in conventional biomass estimates (e.g., measurement and allometric errors), we examined two sources of uncertaintymore » that are specific to the calibration process and should be taken into account in most remote sensing studies: the error resulting from spatial disagreement between field and remote sensing measurements (i.e., co-location error), and the error introduced when accounting for temporal differences in data acquisition. We found that the overall uncertainty in the field biomass was typically 25% for both secondary and primary forests, but ranged from 16 to 53%. Co-location and temporal errors accounted for a large fraction of the total variance (>65%) and were identified as important targets for reducing uncertainty in studies relating tropical forest biomass to remotely sensed data. Although measurement and allometric errors were relatively unimportant when considered alone, combined they accounted for roughly 30% of the total variance on average and should not be ignored. Lastly, our results suggest that a thorough understanding of the sources of error associated with field-measured plot-level biomass estimates in tropical forests is critical to determine confidence in remote sensing estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes, and to develop strategies for reducing the overall uncertainty of remote sensing approaches.« less

Application of advanced shearing techniques to the calibration of autocollimators with small angle generators and investigation of error sources.

PubMed

Yandayan, T; Geckeler, R D; Aksulu, M; Akgoz, S A; Ozgur, B

2016-05-01

The application of advanced error-separating shearing techniques to the precise calibration of autocollimators with Small Angle Generators (SAGs) was carried out for the first time. The experimental realization was achieved using the High Precision Small Angle Generator (HPSAG) of TUBITAK UME under classical dimensional metrology laboratory environmental conditions. The standard uncertainty value of 5 mas (24.2 nrad) reached by classical calibration method was improved to the level of 1.38 mas (6.7 nrad). Shearing techniques, which offer a unique opportunity to separate the errors of devices without recourse to any external standard, were first adapted by Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) to the calibration of autocollimators with angle encoders. It has been demonstrated experimentally in a clean room environment using the primary angle standard of PTB (WMT 220). The application of the technique to a different type of angle measurement system extends the range of the shearing technique further and reveals other advantages. For example, the angular scales of the SAGs are based on linear measurement systems (e.g., capacitive nanosensors for the HPSAG). Therefore, SAGs show different systematic errors when compared to angle encoders. In addition to the error-separation of HPSAG and the autocollimator, detailed investigations on error sources were carried out. Apart from determination of the systematic errors of the capacitive sensor used in the HPSAG, it was also demonstrated that the shearing method enables the unique opportunity to characterize other error sources such as errors due to temperature drift in long term measurements. This proves that the shearing technique is a very powerful method for investigating angle measuring systems, for their improvement, and for specifying precautions to be taken during the measurements.

Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kertzscher, Gustavo, E-mail: guke@dtu.dk; Andersen, Claus E., E-mail: clan@dtu.dk; Tanderup, Kari, E-mail: karitand@rm.dk

Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusivemore » dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was sufficiently symmetric with respect to error and no-error source position constellations. The AEDA was able to correctly identify all false errors represented by mispositioned dosimeters contrary to an error detection algorithm relying on the original reconstruction. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that the AEDA error identification during HDR/PDR BT relies on a stable dosimeter position rather than on an accurate dosimeter reconstruction, and the AEDA’s capacity to distinguish between true and false error scenarios. The study further shows that the AEDA can offer guidance in decision making in the event of potential errors detected with real-timein vivo point dosimetry.« less

An error analysis perspective for patient alignment systems.

PubMed

Figl, Michael; Kaar, Marcus; Hoffman, Rainer; Kratochwil, Alfred; Hummel, Johann

2013-09-01

This paper analyses the effects of error sources which can be found in patient alignment systems. As an example, an ultrasound (US) repositioning system and its transformation chain are assessed. The findings of this concept can also be applied to any navigation system. In a first step, all error sources were identified and where applicable, corresponding target registration errors were computed. By applying error propagation calculations on these commonly used registration/calibration and tracking errors, we were able to analyse the components of the overall error. Furthermore, we defined a special situation where the whole registration chain reduces to the error caused by the tracking system. Additionally, we used a phantom to evaluate the errors arising from the image-to-image registration procedure, depending on the image metric used. We have also discussed how this analysis can be applied to other positioning systems such as Cone Beam CT-based systems or Brainlab's ExacTrac. The estimates found by our error propagation analysis are in good agreement with the numbers found in the phantom study but significantly smaller than results from patient evaluations. We probably underestimated human influences such as the US scan head positioning by the operator and tissue deformation. Rotational errors of the tracking system can multiply these errors, depending on the relative position of tracker and probe. We were able to analyse the components of the overall error of a typical patient positioning system. We consider this to be a contribution to the optimization of the positioning accuracy for computer guidance systems.

A non-stochastic iterative computational method to model light propagation in turbid media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntyre, Thomas J.; Zemp, Roger J.

2015-03-01

Monte Carlo models are widely used to model light transport in turbid media, however their results implicitly contain stochastic variations. These fluctuations are not ideal, especially for inverse problems where Jacobian matrix errors can lead to large uncertainties upon matrix inversion. Yet Monte Carlo approaches are more computationally favorable than solving the full Radiative Transport Equation. Here, a non-stochastic computational method of estimating fluence distributions in turbid media is proposed, which is called the Non-Stochastic Propagation by Iterative Radiance Evaluation method (NSPIRE). Rather than using stochastic means to determine a random walk for each photon packet, the propagation of light from any element to all other elements in a grid is modelled simultaneously. For locally homogeneous anisotropic turbid media, the matrices used to represent scattering and projection are shown to be block Toeplitz, which leads to computational simplifications via convolution operators. To evaluate the accuracy of the algorithm, 2D simulations were done and compared against Monte Carlo models for the cases of an isotropic point source and a pencil beam incident on a semi-infinite turbid medium. The model was shown to have a mean percent error less than 2%. The algorithm represents a new paradigm in radiative transport modelling and may offer a non-stochastic alternative to modeling light transport in anisotropic scattering media for applications where the diffusion approximation is insufficient.

Optical radiation measurements: instrumentation and sources of error.

PubMed

Landry, R J; Andersen, F A

1982-07-01

Accurate measurement of optical radiation is required when sources of this radiation are used in biological research. The most difficult measurements of broadband noncoherent optical radiations usually must be performed by a highly trained specialist using sophisticated, complex, and expensive instruments. Presentation of the results of such measurement requires correct use of quantities and units with which many biological researchers are unfamiliar. The measurement process, physical quantities and units, measurement systems with instruments, and sources of error and uncertainties associated with optical radiation measurements are reviewed.

Finkelstein's test: a descriptive error that can produce a false positive.

PubMed

Elliott, B G

1992-08-01

Over the last three decades an error in performing Finkelstein's test has crept into the English literature in both text books and journals. This error can produce a false-positive, and if relied upon, a wrong diagnosis can be made, leading to inappropriate surgery.

Water displacement leg volumetry in clinical studies - A discussion of error sources

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Water displacement leg volumetry is a highly reproducible method, allowing the confirmation of efficacy of vasoactive substances. Nevertheless errors of its execution and the selection of unsuitable patients are likely to negatively affect the outcome of clinical studies in chronic venous insufficiency (CVI). Discussion Placebo controlled double-blind drug studies in CVI were searched (Cochrane Review 2005, MedLine Search until December 2007) and assessed with regard to efficacy (volume reduction of the leg), patient characteristics, and potential methodological error sources. Almost every second study reported only small drug effects (≤ 30 mL volume reduction). As the most relevant error source the conduct of volumetry was identified. Because the practical use of available equipment varies, volume differences of more than 300 mL - which is a multifold of a potential treatment effect - have been reported between consecutive measurements. Other potential error sources were insufficient patient guidance or difficulties with the transition from the Widmer CVI classification to the CEAP (Clinical Etiological Anatomical Pathophysiological) grading. Summary Patients should be properly diagnosed with CVI and selected for stable oedema and further clinical symptoms relevant for the specific study. Centres require a thorough training on the use of the volumeter and on patient guidance. Volumetry should be performed under constant conditions. The reproducibility of short term repeat measurements has to be ensured. PMID:20070899

An improved methodology for heliostat testing and evaluation at the Plataforma Solar de Almería

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monterreal, Rafael; Enrique, Raúl; Fernández-Reche, Jesús

2017-06-01

The optical quality of a heliostat basically quantifies the difference between the scattering effects of the actual solar radiation reflected on its optical surface, compared to the so called canonical dispersion, that is, the one reflected on an optical surface free of constructional errors (paradigm). However, apart from the uncertainties of the measuring process itself, the value of the optical quality must be independent of the measuring instrument; so, any new measuring techniques that provide additional information about the error sources on the heliostat reflecting surface would be welcome. That error sources are responsible for the final optical quality value, with different degrees of influence. For the constructor of heliostats it will be extremely useful to know the value of the classical sources of error and their weight on the overall optical quality of a heliostat, such as facets geometry or focal length, as well as the characteristics of the heliostat as a whole, i.e., its geometry, focal length, facets misalignment and also the possible dependence of these effects with mechanical and/or meteorological factors. It is the goal of the present paper to unfold these optical quality error sources by exploring directly the reflecting surface of the heliostat with the help of a laser-scanner device and link the result with the traditional methods of heliostat evaluation at the Plataforma Solar de Almería.

Comparison of different source calculations in two-nucleon channel at large quark mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Takeshi; Ishikawa, Ken-ichi; Kuramashi, Yoshinobu

2018-03-01

We investigate a systematic error coming from higher excited state contributions in the energy shift of light nucleus in the two-nucleon channel by comparing two different source calculations with the exponential and wall sources. Since it is hard to obtain a clear signal of the wall source correlation function in a plateau region, we employ a large quark mass as the pion mass is 0.8 GeV in quenched QCD. We discuss the systematic error in the spin-triplet channel of the two-nucleon system, and the volume dependence of the energy shift.

Effects of Heterogeneity and Uncertainties in Sources and Initial and Boundary Conditions on Spatiotemporal Variations of Groundwater Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. K.; Liang, X.

2014-12-01

Effects of aquifer heterogeneity and uncertainties in source/sink, and initial and boundary conditions in a groundwater flow model on the spatiotemporal variations of groundwater level, h(x,t), were investigated. Analytical solutions for the variance and covariance of h(x, t) in an unconfined aquifer described by a linearized Boussinesq equation with a white noise source/sink and a random transmissivity field were derived. It was found that in a typical aquifer the error in h(x,t) in early time is mainly caused by the random initial condition and the error reduces as time goes to reach a constant error in later time. The duration during which the effect of the random initial condition is significant may last a few hundred days in most aquifers. The constant error in groundwater in later time is due to the combined effects of the uncertain source/sink and flux boundary: the closer to the flux boundary, the larger the error. The error caused by the uncertain head boundary is limited in a narrow zone near the boundary but it remains more or less constant over time. The effect of the heterogeneity is to increase the variation of groundwater level and the maximum effect occurs close to the constant head boundary because of the linear mean hydraulic gradient. The correlation of groundwater level decreases with temporal interval and spatial distance. In addition, the heterogeneity enhances the correlation of groundwater level, especially at larger time intervals and small spatial distances.

Regionalized PM2.5 Community Multiscale Air Quality model performance evaluation across a continuous spatiotemporal domain.

PubMed

Reyes, Jeanette M; Xu, Yadong; Vizuete, William; Serre, Marc L

2017-01-01

The regulatory Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a means to understanding the sources, concentrations and regulatory attainment of air pollutants within a model's domain. Substantial resources are allocated to the evaluation of model performance. The Regionalized Air quality Model Performance (RAMP) method introduced here explores novel ways of visualizing and evaluating CMAQ model performance and errors for daily Particulate Matter ≤ 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) concentrations across the continental United States. The RAMP method performs a non-homogenous, non-linear, non-homoscedastic model performance evaluation at each CMAQ grid. This work demonstrates that CMAQ model performance, for a well-documented 2001 regulatory episode, is non-homogeneous across space/time. The RAMP correction of systematic errors outperforms other model evaluation methods as demonstrated by a 22.1% reduction in Mean Square Error compared to a constant domain wide correction. The RAMP method is able to accurately reproduce simulated performance with a correlation of r = 76.1%. Most of the error coming from CMAQ is random error with only a minority of error being systematic. Areas of high systematic error are collocated with areas of high random error, implying both error types originate from similar sources. Therefore, addressing underlying causes of systematic error will have the added benefit of also addressing underlying causes of random error.

On the equivalence of generalized least-squares approaches to the evaluation of measurement comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, A.; Clare, J. F.

2012-06-01

Analysis of CIPM international comparisons is increasingly being carried out using a model-based approach that leads naturally to a generalized least-squares (GLS) solution. While this method offers the advantages of being easier to audit and having general applicability to any form of comparison protocol, there is a lack of consensus over aspects of its implementation. Two significant results are presented that show the equivalence of three differing approaches discussed by or applied in comparisons run by Consultative Committees of the CIPM. Both results depend on a mathematical condition equivalent to the requirement that any two artefacts in the comparison are linked through a sequence of measurements of overlapping pairs of artefacts. The first result is that a GLS estimator excluding all sources of error common to all measurements of a participant is equal to the GLS estimator incorporating all sources of error, including those associated with any bias in the standards or procedures of the measuring laboratory. The second result identifies the component of uncertainty in the estimate of bias that arises from possible systematic effects in the participants' measurement standards and procedures. The expression so obtained is a generalization of an expression previously published for a one-artefact comparison with no inter-participant correlations, to one for a comparison comprising any number of repeat measurements of multiple artefacts and allowing for inter-laboratory correlations.

Using phylogenomics to understand the link between biogeographic origins and regional diversification in ratsnakes.

PubMed

Chen, Xin; Lemmon, Alan R; Lemmon, Emily Moriarty; Pyron, R Alexander; Burbrink, Frank T

2017-06-01

Globally distributed groups may show regionally distinct rates of diversification, where speciation is elevated given timing and sources of ecological opportunity. However, for most organisms, nearly complete sampling at genomic-data scales to reduce topological error in all regions is unattainable, thus hampering conclusions related to biogeographic origins and rates of diversification. We explore processes leading to the diversity of global ratsnakes and test several important hypotheses related to areas of origin and enhanced diversification upon colonizing new continents. We estimate species trees inferred from phylogenomic scale data (304 loci) while exploring several strategies that consider topological error from each individual gene tree. With a dated species tree, we examine taxonomy and test previous hypotheses that suggest the ratsnakes originated in the Old World (OW) and dispersed to New World (NW). Furthermore, we determine if dispersal to the NW represented a source of ecological opportunity, which should show elevated rates of species diversification. We show that ratsnakes originated in the OW during the mid-Oligocene and subsequently dispersed to the NW by the mid-Miocene; diversification was also elevated in a subclade of NW taxa. Finally, the optimal biogeographic region-dependent speciation model shows that the uptick in ratsnake diversification was associated with colonization of the NW. We consider several alternative explanations that account for regionally distinct diversification rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Best practices for evaluating single nucleotide variant calling methods for microbial genomics

PubMed Central

Olson, Nathan D.; Lund, Steven P.; Colman, Rebecca E.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Sahl, Jason W.; Schupp, James M.; Keim, Paul; Morrow, Jayne B.; Salit, Marc L.; Zook, Justin M.

2015-01-01

Innovations in sequencing technologies have allowed biologists to make incredible advances in understanding biological systems. As experience grows, researchers increasingly recognize that analyzing the wealth of data provided by these new sequencing platforms requires careful attention to detail for robust results. Thus far, much of the scientific Communit’s focus for use in bacterial genomics has been on evaluating genome assembly algorithms and rigorously validating assembly program performance. Missing, however, is a focus on critical evaluation of variant callers for these genomes. Variant calling is essential for comparative genomics as it yields insights into nucleotide-level organismal differences. Variant calling is a multistep process with a host of potential error sources that may lead to incorrect variant calls. Identifying and resolving these incorrect calls is critical for bacterial genomics to advance. The goal of this review is to provide guidance on validating algorithms and pipelines used in variant calling for bacterial genomics. First, we will provide an overview of the variant calling procedures and the potential sources of error associated with the methods. We will then identify appropriate datasets for use in evaluating algorithms and describe statistical methods for evaluating algorithm performance. As variant calling moves from basic research to the applied setting, standardized methods for performance evaluation and reporting are required; it is our hope that this review provides the groundwork for the development of these standards. PMID:26217378

An Application of Semi-parametric Estimator with Weighted Matrix of Data Depth in Variance Component Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, X. G.; Wang, J. Q.; Zhou, H. Y.

2013-05-01

The variance component estimation (VCE) based on semi-parametric estimator with weighted matrix of data depth has been proposed, because the coupling system model error and gross error exist in the multi-source heterogeneous measurement data of space and ground combined TT&C (Telemetry, Tracking and Command) technology. The uncertain model error has been estimated with the semi-parametric estimator model, and the outlier has been restrained with the weighted matrix of data depth. On the basis of the restriction of the model error and outlier, the VCE can be improved and used to estimate weighted matrix for the observation data with uncertain model error or outlier. Simulation experiment has been carried out under the circumstance of space and ground combined TT&C. The results show that the new VCE based on the model error compensation can determine the rational weight of the multi-source heterogeneous data, and restrain the outlier data.

Broadband radiometric LED measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eppeldauer, G. P.; Cooksey, C. C.; Yoon, H. W.; Hanssen, L. M.; Podobedov, V. B.; Vest, R. E.; Arp, U.; Miller, C. C.

2016-09-01

At present, broadband radiometric LED measurements with uniform and low-uncertainty results are not available. Currently, either complicated and expensive spectral radiometric measurements or broadband photometric LED measurements are used. The broadband photometric measurements are based on the CIE standardized V(λ) function, which cannot be used in the UV range and leads to large errors when blue or red LEDs are measured in its wings, where the realization is always poor. Reference irradiance meters with spectrally constant response and high-intensity LED irradiance sources were developed here to implement the previously suggested broadband radiometric LED measurement procedure [1, 2]. Using a detector with spectrally constant response, the broadband radiometric quantities of any LEDs or LED groups can be simply measured with low uncertainty without using any source standard. The spectral flatness of filtered-Si detectors and low-noise pyroelectric radiometers are compared. Examples are given for integrated irradiance measurement of UV and blue LED sources using the here introduced reference (standard) pyroelectric irradiance meters. For validation, the broadband measured integrated irradiance of several LED-365 sources were compared with the spectrally determined integrated irradiance derived from an FEL spectral irradiance lamp-standard. Integrated responsivity transfer from the reference irradiance meter to transfer standard and field UV irradiance meters is discussed.

Recording and quantification of ultrasonic echolocation clicks from free-ranging toothed whales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madsen, P. T.; Wahlberg, M.

2007-08-01

Toothed whales produce short, ultrasonic clicks of high directionality and source level to probe their environment acoustically. This process, termed echolocation, is to a large part governed by the properties of the emitted clicks. Therefore derivation of click source parameters from free-ranging animals is of increasing importance to understand both how toothed whales use echolocation in the wild and how they may be monitored acoustically. This paper addresses how source parameters can be derived from free-ranging toothed whales in the wild using calibrated multi-hydrophone arrays and digital recorders. We outline the properties required of hydrophones, amplifiers and analog to digital converters, and discuss the problems of recording echolocation clicks on the axis of a directional sound beam. For accurate localization the hydrophone array apertures must be adapted and scaled to the behavior of, and the range to, the clicking animal, and precise information on hydrophone locations is critical. We provide examples of localization routines and outline sources of error that lead to uncertainties in localizing clicking animals in time and space. Furthermore we explore approaches to time series analysis of discrete versions of toothed whale clicks that are meaningful in a biosonar context.

Sources of Student Errors and Misconceptions in Algebra and Effectiveness of Classroom Practice Remediation in Machakos County--Kenya

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulungye, Mary M.; O'Connor, Miheso; Ndethiu, S.

2016-01-01

This paper is based on a study which sought to examine the various errors and misconceptions committed by students in algebra with the view to exposing the nature and origin of the errors and misconceptions in secondary schools in Machakos district. Teachers' knowledge on students' errors was investigated together with strategies for remedial…

The inference of atmospheric ozone using satellite horizon measurements in the 1042 per cm band.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, J. M., III; Drayson, S. R.

1972-01-01

Description of a method for inferring atmospheric ozone information using infrared horizon radiance measurements in the 1042 per cm band. An analysis based on this method proves the feasibility of the horizon experiment for determining ozone information and shows that the ozone partial pressure can be determined in the altitude range from 50 down to 25 km. A comprehensive error study is conducted which considers effects of individual errors as well as the effect of all error sources acting simultaneously. The results show that in the absence of a temperature profile bias error, it should be possible to determine the ozone partial pressure to within an rms value of 15 to 20%. It may be possible to reduce this rms error to 5% by smoothing the solution profile. These results would be seriously degraded by an atmospheric temperature bias error of only 3 K; thus, great care should be taken to minimize this source of error in an experiment. It is probable, in view of recent technological developments, that these errors will be much smaller in future flight experiments and the altitude range will widen to include from about 60 km down to the tropopause region.

The Reliability and Sources of Error of Using Rubrics-Based Assessment for Student Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menéndez-Varela, José-Luis; Gregori-Giralt, Eva

2018-01-01

Rubrics are widely used in higher education to assess performance in project-based learning environments. To date, the sources of error that may affect their reliability have not been studied in depth. Using generalisability theory as its starting-point, this article analyses the influence of the assessors and the criteria of the rubrics on the…

Temperature scaling in a dense vibrofluidized granular material.

PubMed

Sunthar, P; Kumaran, V

1999-08-01

The leading order "temperature" of a dense two-dimensional granular material fluidized by external vibrations is determined. The grain interactions are characterized by inelastic collisions, but the coefficient of restitution is considered to be close to 1, so that the dissipation of energy during a collision is small compared to the average energy of a particle. An asymptotic solution is obtained where the particles are considered to be elastic in the leading approximation. The velocity distribution is a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution in the leading approximation. The density profile is determined by solving the momentum balance equation in the vertical direction, where the relation between the pressure and density is provided by the virial equation of state. The temperature is determined by relating the source of energy due to the vibrating surface and the energy dissipation due to inelastic collisions. The predictions of the present analysis show good agreement with simulation results at higher densities where theories for a dilute vibrated granular material, with the pressure-density relation provided by the ideal gas law, are in error.

A Robust Sound Source Localization Approach for Microphone Array with Model Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Hua; Shao, Huai-Zong; Peng, Qi-Cong

In this paper, a robust sound source localization approach is proposed. The approach retains good performance even when model errors exist. Compared with previous work in this field, the contributions of this paper are as follows. First, an improved broad-band and near-field array model is proposed. It takes array gain, phase perturbations into account and is based on the actual positions of the elements. It can be used in arbitrary planar geometry arrays. Second, a subspace model errors estimation algorithm and a Weighted 2-Dimension Multiple Signal Classification (W2D-MUSIC) algorithm are proposed. The subspace model errors estimation algorithm estimates unknown parameters of the array model, i. e., gain, phase perturbations, and positions of the elements, with high accuracy. The performance of this algorithm is improved with the increasing of SNR or number of snapshots. The W2D-MUSIC algorithm based on the improved array model is implemented to locate sound sources. These two algorithms compose the robust sound source approach. The more accurate steering vectors can be provided for further processing such as adaptive beamforming algorithm. Numerical examples confirm effectiveness of this proposed approach.

Development of an FAA-EUROCONTROL technique for the analysis of human error in ATM : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-07-01

Human error has been identified as a dominant risk factor in safety-oriented industries such as air traffic control (ATC). However, little is known about the factors leading to human errors in current air traffic management (ATM) systems. The first s...

Action errors, error management, and learning in organizations.

PubMed

Frese, Michael; Keith, Nina

2015-01-03

Every organization is confronted with errors. Most errors are corrected easily, but some may lead to negative consequences. Organizations often focus on error prevention as a single strategy for dealing with errors. Our review suggests that error prevention needs to be supplemented by error management--an approach directed at effectively dealing with errors after they have occurred, with the goal of minimizing negative and maximizing positive error consequences (examples of the latter are learning and innovations). After defining errors and related concepts, we review research on error-related processes affected by error management (error detection, damage control). Empirical evidence on positive effects of error management in individuals and organizations is then discussed, along with emotional, motivational, cognitive, and behavioral pathways of these effects. Learning from errors is central, but like other positive consequences, learning occurs under certain circumstances--one being the development of a mind-set of acceptance of human error.

Using the EC decision on case definitions for communicable diseases as a terminology source--lessons learned.

PubMed

Balkanyi, Laszlo; Heja, Gergely; Nagy, Attlia

2014-01-01

Extracting scientifically accurate terminology from an EU public health regulation is part of the knowledge engineering work at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). ECDC operates information systems at the crossroads of many areas - posing a challenge for transparency and consistency. Semantic interoperability is based on the Terminology Server (TS). TS value sets (structured vocabularies) describe shared domains as "diseases", "organisms", "public health terms", "geo-entities" "organizations" and "administrative terms" and others. We extracted information from the relevant EC Implementing Decision on case definitions for reporting communicable diseases, listing 53 notifiable infectious diseases, containing clinical, diagnostic, laboratory and epidemiological criteria. We performed a consistency check; a simplification - abstraction; we represented lab criteria in triplets: as 'y' procedural result /of 'x' organism-substance/on 'z' specimen and identified negations. The resulting new case definition value set represents the various formalized criteria, meanwhile the existing disease value set has been extended, new signs and symptoms were added. New organisms enriched the organism value set. Other new categories have been added to the public health value set, as transmission modes; substances; specimens and procedures. We identified problem areas, as (a) some classification error(s); (b) inconsistent granularity of conditions; (c) seemingly nonsense criteria, medical trivialities; (d) possible logical errors, (e) seemingly factual errors that might be phrasing errors. We think our hypothesis regarding room for possible improvements is valid: there are some open issues and a further improved legal text might lead to more precise epidemiologic data collection. It has to be noted that formal representation for automatic classification of cases was out of scope, such a task would require other formalism, as e.g. those used by rule-based decision support systems.

Error Model and Compensation of Bell-Shaped Vibratory Gyro

PubMed Central

Su, Zhong; Liu, Ning; Li, Qing

2015-01-01

A bell-shaped vibratory angular velocity gyro (BVG), inspired by the Chinese traditional bell, is a type of axisymmetric shell resonator gyroscope. This paper focuses on development of an error model and compensation of the BVG. A dynamic equation is firstly established, based on a study of the BVG working mechanism. This equation is then used to evaluate the relationship between the angular rate output signal and bell-shaped resonator character, analyze the influence of the main error sources and set up an error model for the BVG. The error sources are classified from the error propagation characteristics, and the compensation method is presented based on the error model. Finally, using the error model and compensation method, the BVG is calibrated experimentally including rough compensation, temperature and bias compensation, scale factor compensation and noise filter. The experimentally obtained bias instability is from 20.5°/h to 4.7°/h, the random walk is from 2.8°/h1/2 to 0.7°/h1/2 and the nonlinearity is from 0.2% to 0.03%. Based on the error compensation, it is shown that there is a good linear relationship between the sensing signal and the angular velocity, suggesting that the BVG is a good candidate for the field of low and medium rotational speed measurement. PMID:26393593

A study of potential sources of linguistic ambiguity in written work instructions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matzen, Laura E.

This report describes the results of a small experimental study that investigated potential sources of ambiguity in written work instructions (WIs). The English language can be highly ambiguous because words with different meanings can share the same spelling. Previous studies in the nuclear weapons complex have shown that ambiguous WIs can lead to human error, which is a major cause for concern. To study possible sources of ambiguity in WIs, we determined which of the recommended action verbs in the DOE and BWXT writer's manuals have numerous meanings to their intended audience, making them potentially ambiguous. We used cognitive psychologymore » techniques to conduct a survey in which technicians who use WIs in their jobs indicated the first meaning that came to mind for each of the words. Although the findings of this study are limited by the small number of respondents, we identified words that had many different meanings even within this limited sample. WI writers should pay particular attention to these words and to their most frequent meanings so that they can avoid ambiguity in their writing.« less

Synchronous response modelling and control of an annular momentum control device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hockney, Richard; Johnson, Bruce G.; Misovec, Kathleen

1988-08-01

Research on the synchronous response modelling and control of an advanced Annular Momentun Control Device (AMCD) used to control the attitude of a spacecraft is described. For the flexible rotor AMCD, two sources of synchronous vibrations were identified. One source, which corresponds to the mass unbalance problem of rigid rotors suspended in conventional bearings, is caused by measurement errors of the rotor center of mass position. The other sources of synchronous vibrations is misalignment between the hub and flywheel masses of the AMCD. Four different control algorithms were examined. These were lead-lag compensators that mimic conventional bearing dynamics, tracking notch filters used in the feedback loop, tracking differential-notch filters, and model-based compensators. The tracking differential-notch filters were shown to have a number of advantages over more conventional approaches for both rigid-body rotor applications and flexible rotor applications such as the AMCD. Hardware implementation schemes for the tracking differential-notch filter were investigated. A simple design was developed that can be implemented with analog multipliers and low bandwidth, digital hardware.

The effect of Earth's oblateness on the seismic moment estimation from satellite gravimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Chunli; Guo, Junyi; Shang, Kun; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Rongjiang

2018-05-01

Over the last decade, satellite gravimetry, as a new class of geodetic sensors, has been increasingly studied for its use in improving source model inversion for large undersea earthquakes. When these satellite-observed gravity change data are used to estimate source parameters such as seismic moment, the forward modelling of earthquake seismic deformation is crucial because imperfect modelling could lead to errors in the resolved source parameters. Here, we discuss several modelling issues and focus on one modelling deficiency resulting from the upward continuation of gravity change considering the Earth's oblateness, which is ignored in contemporary studies. For the low degree (degree 60) time-variable gravity solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission data, the model-predicted gravity change would be overestimated by 9 per cent for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and about 6 per cent for the 2010 Maule earthquake. For high degree gravity solutions, the model-predicted gravity change at degree 240 would be overestimated by 30 per cent for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, resulting in the seismic moment to be systematically underestimated by 30 per cent.

Synchronous response modelling and control of an annular momentum control device

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hockney, Richard; Johnson, Bruce G.; Misovec, Kathleen

1988-01-01

Research on the synchronous response modelling and control of an advanced Annular Momentun Control Device (AMCD) used to control the attitude of a spacecraft is described. For the flexible rotor AMCD, two sources of synchronous vibrations were identified. One source, which corresponds to the mass unbalance problem of rigid rotors suspended in conventional bearings, is caused by measurement errors of the rotor center of mass position. The other sources of synchronous vibrations is misalignment between the hub and flywheel masses of the AMCD. Four different control algorithms were examined. These were lead-lag compensators that mimic conventional bearing dynamics, tracking notch filters used in the feedback loop, tracking differential-notch filters, and model-based compensators. The tracking differential-notch filters were shown to have a number of advantages over more conventional approaches for both rigid-body rotor applications and flexible rotor applications such as the AMCD. Hardware implementation schemes for the tracking differential-notch filter were investigated. A simple design was developed that can be implemented with analog multipliers and low bandwidth, digital hardware.

The pros and cons of code validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bobbitt, Percy J.

1988-01-01

Computational and wind tunnel error sources are examined and quantified using specific calculations of experimental data, and a substantial comparison of theoretical and experimental results, or a code validation, is discussed. Wind tunnel error sources considered include wall interference, sting effects, Reynolds number effects, flow quality and transition, and instrumentation such as strain gage balances, electronically scanned pressure systems, hot film gages, hot wire anemometers, and laser velocimeters. Computational error sources include math model equation sets, the solution algorithm, artificial viscosity/dissipation, boundary conditions, the uniqueness of solutions, grid resolution, turbulence modeling, and Reynolds number effects. It is concluded that, although improvements in theory are being made more quickly than in experiments, wind tunnel research has the advantage of the more realistic transition process of a right turbulence model in a free-transition test.

Image reduction pipeline for the detection of variable sources in highly crowded fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gössl, C. A.; Riffeser, A.

2002-01-01

We present a reduction pipeline for CCD (charge-coupled device) images which was built to search for variable sources in highly crowded fields like the M 31 bulge and to handle extensive databases due to large time series. We describe all steps of the standard reduction in detail with emphasis on the realisation of per pixel error propagation: Bias correction, treatment of bad pixels, flatfielding, and filtering of cosmic rays. The problems of conservation of PSF (point spread function) and error propagation in our image alignment procedure as well as the detection algorithm for variable sources are discussed: we build difference images via image convolution with a technique called OIS (optimal image subtraction, Alard & Lupton \\cite{1998ApJ...503..325A}), proceed with an automatic detection of variable sources in noise dominated images and finally apply a PSF-fitting, relative photometry to the sources found. For the WeCAPP project (Riffeser et al. \\cite{2001A&A...0000..00R}) we achieve 3sigma detections for variable sources with an apparent brightness of e.g. m = 24.9;mag at their minimum and a variation of Delta m = 2.4;mag (or m = 21.9;mag brightness minimum and a variation of Delta m = 0.6;mag) on a background signal of 18.1;mag/arcsec2 based on a 500;s exposure with 1.5;arcsec seeing at a 1.2;m telescope. The complete per pixel error propagation allows us to give accurate errors for each measurement.

Orbit determination strategy and results for the Pioneer 10 Jupiter mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, S. K.; Lubeley, A. J.

1974-01-01

Pioneer 10 is the first earth-based vehicle to encounter Jupiter and occult its moon, Io. In contributing to the success of the mission, the Orbit Determination Group evaluated the effects of the dominant error sources on the spacecraft's computed orbit and devised an encounter strategy minimizing the effects of these error sources. The encounter results indicated that: (1) errors in the satellite model played a very important role in the accuracy of the computed orbit, (2) encounter strategy was sound, (3) all mission objectives were met, and (4) Jupiter-Saturn mission for Pioneer 11 is within the navigation capability.

S-193 scatterometer transfer function analysis for data processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, L.

1974-01-01

A mathematical model for converting raw data measurements of the S-193 scatterometer into processed values of radar scattering coefficient is presented. The argument is based on an approximation derived from the Radar Equation and actual operating principles of the S-193 Scatterometer hardware. Possible error sources are inaccuracies in transmitted wavelength, range, antenna illumination integrals, and the instrument itself. The dominant source of error in the calculation of scattering coefficent is accuracy of the range. All other ractors with the possible exception of illumination integral are not considered to cause significant error in the calculation of scattering coefficient.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauböck, Michi; Psaltis, Dimitrios; Özel, Feryal, E-mail: mbaubock@email.arizona.edu

We calculate the effects of spot size on pulse profiles of moderately rotating neutron stars. Specifically, we quantify the bias introduced in radius measurements from the common assumption that spots are infinitesimally small. We find that this assumption is reasonable for spots smaller than 10°–18° and leads to errors that are ≤10% in the radius measurement, depending on the location of the spot and the inclination of the observer. We consider the implications of our results for neutron star radius measurements with the upcoming and planned X-ray missions NICER and LOFT. We calculate the expected spot size for different classesmore » of sources and investigate the circumstances under which the assumption of a small spot is justified.« less

[The heuristics of reaching a diagnosis].

PubMed

Wainstein, Eduardo

2009-12-01

Making a diagnosis in medicine is a complex process in which many cognitive and psychological issues are involved. After the first encounter with the patient, an unconscious process ensues to suspect the presence of a particular disease. Usually, complementary tests are requested to confirm the clinical suspicion. The interpretation of requested tests can be biased by the clinical diagnosis that was considered in the first encounter with the patient. The awareness of these sources of error is essential in the interpretation of the findings that will eventually lead to a final diagnosis. This article discusses some aspects of the heuristics involved in the adjudication of priory probabilities and provides a brief review of current concepts of the reasoning process.

Development of Control System for Hydrolysis Crystallization Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Feng; Shi, Xiao-Ming; Feng, Fang-Fang

2016-05-01

Sulfate method for producing titanium dioxide is commonly used in China, but the determination of crystallization time is artificially which leads to a big error and is harmful to the operators. In this paper a new method for determining crystallization time is proposed. The method adopts the red laser as the light source, uses the silicon photocell as reflection light receiving component, using optical fiber as the light transmission element, differential algorithm is adopted in the software to realize the determination of the crystallizing time. The experimental results show that the method can realize the determination of crystallization point automatically and accurately, can replace manual labor and protect the health of workers, can be applied to practice completely.

Sagnac effect and Ritz ballistic hypothesis (Review)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malykin, G. B.

2010-12-01

It is shown that the Ritz ballistic hypothesis, which is based on the vector summation of the speed of light with the velocity of the radiation source, contradicts the fact of existence of the Sagnac effect. Based on a particular example of a three-mirror ring interferometer, it is shown that the application of the Ritz ballistic hypothesis leads to an obvious calculation error, namely, to the appearance of a difference in the propagation times of counterpropagating waves in the absence of rotation. A review is given of experiments and of results of processing of astronomical observations and discussions devoted to testing the Ritz ballistic hypothesis. A number of other physical phenomena that refute the Ritz ballistic hypothesis are considered.

Active control of sound radiation from a vibrating rectangular panel by sound sources and vibration inputs - An experimental comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuller, C. R.; Hansen, C. H.; Snyder, S. D.

1991-01-01

Active control of sound radiation from a rectangular panel by two different methods has been experimentally studied and compared. In the first method a single control force applied directly to the structure is used with a single error microphone located in the radiated acoustic field. Global attenuation of radiated sound was observed to occur by two main mechanisms. For 'on-resonance' excitation, the control force had the effect of increasing the total panel input impedance presented to the nosie source, thus reducing all radiated sound. For 'off-resonance' excitation, the control force tends not significantly to modify the panel total response amplitude but rather to restructure the relative phases of the modes leading to a more complex vibration pattern and a decrease in radiation efficiency. For acoustic control, the second method, the number of acoustic sources required for global reduction was seen to increase with panel modal order. The mechanism in this case was that the acoustic sources tended to create an inverse pressure distribution at the panel surface and thus 'unload' the panel by reducing the panel radiation impedance. In general, control by structural inputs appears more effective than control by acoustic sources for structurally radiated noise.

The 2.5-dimensional equivalent sources method for directly exposed and shielded urban canyons.

PubMed

Hornikx, Maarten; Forssén, Jens

2007-11-01

When a domain in outdoor acoustics is invariant in one direction, an inverse Fourier transform can be used to transform solutions of the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation to a solution of the three-dimensional Helmholtz equation for arbitrary source and observer positions, thereby reducing the computational costs. This previously published approach [D. Duhamel, J. Sound Vib. 197, 547-571 (1996)] is called a 2.5-dimensional method and has here been extended to the urban geometry of parallel canyons, thereby using the equivalent sources method to generate the two-dimensional solutions. No atmospheric effects are considered. To keep the error arising from the transform small, two-dimensional solutions with a very fine frequency resolution are necessary due to the multiple reflections in the canyons. Using the transform, the solution for an incoherent line source can be obtained much more efficiently than by using the three-dimensional solution. It is shown that the use of a coherent line source for shielded urban canyon observer positions leads mostly to an overprediction of levels and can yield erroneous results for noise abatement schemes. Moreover, the importance of multiple facade reflections in shielded urban areas is emphasized by vehicle pass-by calculations, where cases with absorptive and diffusive surfaces have been modeled.

Post-error Brain Activity Correlates With Incidental Memory for Negative Words

PubMed Central

Senderecka, Magdalena; Ociepka, Michał; Matyjek, Magdalena; Kroczek, Bartłomiej

2018-01-01

The present study had three main objectives. First, we aimed to evaluate whether short-duration affective states induced by negative and positive words can lead to increased error-monitoring activity relative to a neutral task condition. Second, we intended to determine whether such an enhancement is limited to words of specific valence or is a general response to arousing material. Third, we wanted to assess whether post-error brain activity is associated with incidental memory for negative and/or positive words. Participants performed an emotional stop-signal task that required response inhibition to negative, positive or neutral nouns while EEG was recorded. Immediately after the completion of the task, they were instructed to recall as many of the presented words as they could in an unexpected free recall test. We observed significantly greater brain activity in the error-positivity (Pe) time window in both negative and positive trials. The error-related negativity amplitudes were comparable in both the neutral and emotional arousing trials, regardless of their valence. Regarding behavior, increased processing of emotional words was reflected in better incidental recall. Importantly, the memory performance for negative words was positively correlated with the Pe amplitude, particularly in the negative condition. The source localization analysis revealed that the subsequent memory recall for negative words was associated with widespread bilateral brain activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and in the medial frontal gyrus, which was registered in the Pe time window during negative trials. The present study has several important conclusions. First, it indicates that the emotional enhancement of error monitoring, as reflected by the Pe amplitude, may be induced by stimuli with symbolic, ontogenetically learned emotional significance. Second, it indicates that the emotion-related enhancement of the Pe occurs across both negative and positive conditions, thus it is preferentially driven by the arousal content of an affective stimuli. Third, our findings suggest that enhanced error monitoring and facilitated recall of negative words may both reflect responsivity to negative events. More speculatively, they can also indicate that post-error activity of the medial prefrontal cortex may selectively support encoding for negative stimuli and contribute to their privileged access to memory. PMID:29867408

Optimizing dynamic downscaling in one-way nesting using a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan; Ku, Hyeyun

2016-10-01

Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models has been demonstrated to be an effective approach for both operationally forecasted sea weather on regional scales and projections of future climate change and its impact on the ocean. However, when nesting procedures are carried out in dynamic downscaling from a larger-scale model or set of observations to a smaller scale, errors are unavoidable due to the differences in grid sizes and updating intervals. The present work assesses the impact of errors produced by nesting procedures on the downscaled results from Ocean Regional Circulation Models (ORCMs). Errors are identified and evaluated based on their sources and characteristics by employing the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). The BBE uses the same model to produce both nesting and nested simulations; so it addresses those error sources separately (i.e., without combining the contributions of errors from different sources). Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from the spatial grids' differences, the updating times and the domain sizes. After the BBE was separately run for diverse cases, a Taylor diagram was used to analyze the results and recommend an optimal combination of grid size, updating period and domain sizes. Finally, suggested setups for the downscaling were evaluated by examining the spatial correlations of variables and the relative magnitudes of variances between the nested model and the original data.

Error Sources in Proccessing LIDAR Based Bridge Inspection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, H.; Chen, S. E.; Liu, W.

2017-09-01

Bridge inspection is a critical task in infrastructure management and is facing unprecedented challenges after a series of bridge failures. The prevailing visual inspection was insufficient in providing reliable and quantitative bridge information although a systematic quality management framework was built to ensure visual bridge inspection data quality to minimize errors during the inspection process. The LiDAR based remote sensing is recommended as an effective tool in overcoming some of the disadvantages of visual inspection. In order to evaluate the potential of applying this technology in bridge inspection, some of the error sources in LiDAR based bridge inspection are analysed. The scanning angle variance in field data collection and the different algorithm design in scanning data processing are the found factors that will introduce errors into inspection results. Besides studying the errors sources, advanced considerations should be placed on improving the inspection data quality, and statistical analysis might be employed to evaluate inspection operation process that contains a series of uncertain factors in the future. Overall, the development of a reliable bridge inspection system requires not only the improvement of data processing algorithms, but also systematic considerations to mitigate possible errors in the entire inspection workflow. If LiDAR or some other technology can be accepted as a supplement for visual inspection, the current quality management framework will be modified or redesigned, and this would be as urgent as the refine of inspection techniques.

Identification of 'Point A' as the prevalent source of error in cephalometric analysis of lateral radiographs.

PubMed

Grogger, P; Sacher, C; Weber, S; Millesi, G; Seemann, R

2018-04-10

Deviations in measuring dentofacial components in a lateral X-ray represent a major hurdle in the subsequent treatment of dysgnathic patients. In a retrospective study, we investigated the most prevalent source of error in the following commonly used cephalometric measurements: the angles Sella-Nasion-Point A (SNA), Sella-Nasion-Point B (SNB) and Point A-Nasion-Point B (ANB); the Wits appraisal; the anteroposterior dysplasia indicator (APDI); and the overbite depth indicator (ODI). Preoperative lateral radiographic images of patients with dentofacial deformities were collected and the landmarks digitally traced by three independent raters. Cephalometric analysis was automatically performed based on 1116 tracings. Error analysis identified the x-coordinate of Point A as the prevalent source of error in all investigated measurements, except SNB, in which it is not incorporated. In SNB, the y-coordinate of Nasion predominated error variance. SNB showed lowest inter-rater variation. In addition, our observations confirmed previous studies showing that landmark identification variance follows characteristic error envelopes in the highest number of tracings analysed up to now. Variance orthogonal to defining planes was of relevance, while variance parallel to planes was not. Taking these findings into account, orthognathic surgeons as well as orthodontists would be able to perform cephalometry more accurately and accomplish better therapeutic results. Copyright © 2018 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Micro-seismic imaging using a source function independent full waveform inversion method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hanchen; Alkhalifah, Tariq

2018-03-01

At the heart of micro-seismic event measurements is the task to estimate the location of the source micro-seismic events, as well as their ignition times. The accuracy of locating the sources is highly dependent on the velocity model. On the other hand, the conventional micro-seismic source locating methods require, in many cases manual picking of traveltime arrivals, which do not only lead to manual effort and human interaction, but also prone to errors. Using full waveform inversion (FWI) to locate and image micro-seismic events allows for an automatic process (free of picking) that utilizes the full wavefield. However, full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events faces incredible nonlinearity due to the unknown source locations (space) and functions (time). We developed a source function independent full waveform inversion of micro-seismic events to invert for the source image, source function and the velocity model. It is based on convolving reference traces with these observed and modeled to mitigate the effect of an unknown source ignition time. The adjoint-state method is used to derive the gradient for the source image, source function and velocity updates. The extended image for the source wavelet in Z axis is extracted to check the accuracy of the inverted source image and velocity model. Also, angle gathers is calculated to assess the quality of the long wavelength component of the velocity model. By inverting for the source image, source wavelet and the velocity model simultaneously, the proposed method produces good estimates of the source location, ignition time and the background velocity for synthetic examples used here, like those corresponding to the Marmousi model and the SEG/EAGE overthrust model.

Typing Style and the Use of Different Sources of Information during Typing: An Investigation Using Self-Reports

PubMed Central

Rieger, Martina; Bart, Victoria K. E.

2016-01-01

We investigated to what extent different sources of information are used in typing on a computer keyboard. Using self-reports 10 finger typists and idiosyncratic typists estimated how much attention they pay to different sources of information during copy typing and free typing and how much they use them for error detection. 10 finger typists reported less attention to the keyboard and the fingers and more attention to the template and the screen than idiosyncratic typists. The groups did not differ in attention to touch/kinaesthesis in copy typing and free typing, but 10 finger typists reported more use of touch/kinaesthesis in error detection. This indicates that processing of tactile/kinaesthetic information may occur largely outside conscious control, as long as no errors occur. 10 finger typists reported more use of internal prediction of movement consequences for error detection than idiosyncratic typists, reflecting more precise internal models. Further in copy typing compared to free typing attention to the template is required, thus leaving less attentional capacity for other sources of information. Correlations showed that higher skilled typists, regardless of typing style, rely more on sources of information which are usually associated with 10 finger typing. One limitation of the study is that only self-reports were used. We conclude that typing task, typing proficiency, and typing style influence how attention is distributed during typing. PMID:28018256

Typing Style and the Use of Different Sources of Information during Typing: An Investigation Using Self-Reports.

PubMed

Rieger, Martina; Bart, Victoria K E

2016-01-01

We investigated to what extent different sources of information are used in typing on a computer keyboard. Using self-reports 10 finger typists and idiosyncratic typists estimated how much attention they pay to different sources of information during copy typing and free typing and how much they use them for error detection. 10 finger typists reported less attention to the keyboard and the fingers and more attention to the template and the screen than idiosyncratic typists. The groups did not differ in attention to touch/kinaesthesis in copy typing and free typing, but 10 finger typists reported more use of touch/kinaesthesis in error detection. This indicates that processing of tactile/kinaesthetic information may occur largely outside conscious control, as long as no errors occur. 10 finger typists reported more use of internal prediction of movement consequences for error detection than idiosyncratic typists, reflecting more precise internal models. Further in copy typing compared to free typing attention to the template is required, thus leaving less attentional capacity for other sources of information. Correlations showed that higher skilled typists, regardless of typing style, rely more on sources of information which are usually associated with 10 finger typing. One limitation of the study is that only self-reports were used. We conclude that typing task, typing proficiency, and typing style influence how attention is distributed during typing.

The Robustness of Acoustic Analogies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freund, J. B.; Lele, S. K.; Wei, M.

2004-01-01

Acoustic analogies for the prediction of flow noise are exact rearrangements of the flow equations N(right arrow q) = 0 into a nominal sound source S(right arrow q) and sound propagation operator L such that L(right arrow q) = S(right arrow q). In practice, the sound source is typically modeled and the propagation operator inverted to make predictions. Since the rearrangement is exact, any sufficiently accurate model of the source will yield the correct sound, so other factors must determine the merits of any particular formulation. Using data from a two-dimensional mixing layer direct numerical simulation (DNS), we evaluate the robustness of two analogy formulations to different errors intentionally introduced into the source. The motivation is that since S can not be perfectly modeled, analogies that are less sensitive to errors in S are preferable. Our assessment is made within the framework of Goldstein's generalized acoustic analogy, in which different choices of a base flow used in constructing L give different sources S and thus different analogies. A uniform base flow yields a Lighthill-like analogy, which we evaluate against a formulation in which the base flow is the actual mean flow of the DNS. The more complex mean flow formulation is found to be significantly more robust to errors in the energetic turbulent fluctuations, but its advantage is less pronounced when errors are made in the smaller scales.

The Public Understanding of Error in Educational Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gardner, John

2013-01-01

Evidence from recent research suggests that in the UK the public perception of errors in national examinations is that they are simply mistakes; events that are preventable. This perception predominates over the more sophisticated technical view that errors arise from many sources and create an inevitable variability in assessment outcomes. The…

On the Limitations of Variational Bias Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moradi, Isaac; Mccarty, Will; Gelaro, Ronald

2018-01-01

Satellite radiances are the largest dataset assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, however the data are subject to errors and uncertainties that need to be accounted for before assimilating into the NWP models. Variational bias correction uses the time series of observation minus background to estimate the observations bias. This technique does not distinguish between the background error, forward operator error, and observations error so that all these errors are summed up together and counted as observation error. We identify some sources of observations errors (e.g., antenna emissivity, non-linearity in the calibration, and antenna pattern) and show the limitations of variational bias corrections on estimating these errors.

Unavoidable Errors: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Time-Course and Neural Sources of Evoked Potentials Associated with Error Processing in a Speeded Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vocat, Roland; Pourtois, Gilles; Vuilleumier, Patrik

2008-01-01

The detection of errors is known to be associated with two successive neurophysiological components in EEG, with an early time-course following motor execution: the error-related negativity (ERN/Ne) and late positivity (Pe). The exact cognitive and physiological processes contributing to these two EEG components, as well as their functional…

Error and its meaning in forensic science.

PubMed

Christensen, Angi M; Crowder, Christian M; Ousley, Stephen D; Houck, Max M

2014-01-01

The discussion of "error" has gained momentum in forensic science in the wake of the Daubert guidelines and has intensified with the National Academy of Sciences' Report. Error has many different meanings, and too often, forensic practitioners themselves as well as the courts misunderstand scientific error and statistical error rates, often confusing them with practitioner error (or mistakes). Here, we present an overview of these concepts as they pertain to forensic science applications, discussing the difference between practitioner error (including mistakes), instrument error, statistical error, and method error. We urge forensic practitioners to ensure that potential sources of error and method limitations are understood and clearly communicated and advocate that the legal community be informed regarding the differences between interobserver errors, uncertainty, variation, and mistakes. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Chiral extrapolation of the leading hadronic contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golterman, Maarten; Maltman, Kim; Peris, Santiago

2017-04-01

A lattice computation of the leading-order hadronic contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment can potentially help reduce the error on the Standard Model prediction for this quantity, if sufficient control of all systematic errors affecting such a computation can be achieved. One of these systematic errors is that associated with the extrapolation to the physical pion mass from values on the lattice larger than the physical pion mass. We investigate this extrapolation assuming lattice pion masses in the range of 200 to 400 MeV with the help of two-loop chiral perturbation theory, and we find that such an extrapolation is unlikely to lead to control of this systematic error at the 1% level. This remains true even if various tricks to improve the reliability of the chiral extrapolation employed in the literature are taken into account. In addition, while chiral perturbation theory also predicts the dependence on the pion mass of the leading-order hadronic contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment as the chiral limit is approached, this prediction turns out to be of no practical use because the physical pion mass is larger than the muon mass that sets the scale for the onset of this behavior.

Analysis and optimization of cyclic methods in orbit computation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierce, S.

1973-01-01

The mathematical analysis and computation of the K=3, order 4; K=4, order 6; and K=5, order 7 cyclic methods and the K=5, order 6 Cowell method and some results of optimizing the 3 backpoint cyclic multistep methods for solving ordinary differential equations are presented. Cyclic methods have the advantage over traditional methods of having higher order for a given number of backpoints while at the same time having more free parameters. After considering several error sources the primary source for the cyclic methods has been isolated. The free parameters for three backpoint methods were used to minimize the effects of some of these error sources. They now yield more accuracy with the same computing time as Cowell's method on selected problems. This work is being extended to the five backpoint methods. The analysis and optimization are more difficult here since the matrices are larger and the dimension of the optimizing space is larger. Indications are that the primary error source can be reduced. This will still leave several parameters free to minimize other sources.

An improved triple collocation algorithm for decomposing autocorrelated and white soil moisture retrieval errors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

If not properly account for, auto-correlated errors in observations can lead to inaccurate results in soil moisture data analysis and reanalysis. Here, we propose a more generalized form of the triple collocation algorithm (GTC) capable of decomposing the total error variance of remotely-sensed surf...

A preliminary estimate of geoid-induced variations in repeat orbit satellite altimeter observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Anita C.; Beckley, B. D.; Koblinsky, C. J.

1990-01-01

Altimeter satellites are often maintained in a repeating orbit to facilitate the separation of sea-height variations from the geoid. However, atmospheric drag and solar radiation pressure cause a satellite orbit to drift. For Geosat this drift causes the ground track to vary by + or - 1 km about the nominal repeat path. This misalignment leads to an error in the estimates of sea surface height variations because of the local slope in the geoid. This error has been estimated globally for the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission using a mean sea surface constructed from Geos 3 and Seasat altimeter data. Over most of the ocean the geoid gradient is small, and the repeat-track misalignment leads to errors of only 1 to 2 cm. However, in the vicinity of trenches, continental shelves, islands, and seamounts, errors can exceed 20 cm. The estimated error is compared with direct estimates from Geosat altimetry, and a strong correlation is found in the vicinity of the Tonga and Aleutian trenches. This correlation increases as the orbit error is reduced because of the increased signal-to-noise ratio.

A collaborative vendor-buyer production-inventory systems with imperfect quality items, inspection errors, and stochastic demand under budget capacity constraint: a Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurdhi, N. A.; Nurhayati, R. A.; Wiyono, S. B.; Handajani, S. S.; Martini, T. S.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop an integrated inventory model considering the imperfect quality items, inspection error, controllable lead time, and budget capacity constraint. The imperfect items were uniformly distributed and detected on the screening process. However there are two types of possibilities. The first is type I of inspection error (when a non-defective item classified as defective) and the second is type II of inspection error (when a defective item classified as non-defective). The demand during the lead time is unknown, and it follows the normal distribution. The lead time can be controlled by adding the crashing cost. Furthermore, the existence of the budget capacity constraint is caused by the limited purchasing cost. The purposes of this research are: to modify the integrated vendor and buyer inventory model, to establish the optimal solution using Kuhn-Tucker’s conditions, and to apply the models. Based on the result of application and the sensitivity analysis, it can be obtained minimum integrated inventory total cost rather than separated inventory.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gonçalves, Fabio; Treuhaft, Robert; Law, Beverly

Mapping and monitoring of forest carbon stocks across large areas in the tropics will necessarily rely on remote sensing approaches, which in turn depend on field estimates of biomass for calibration and validation purposes. Here, we used field plot data collected in a tropical moist forest in the central Amazon to gain a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with plot-level biomass estimates obtained specifically for the calibration of remote sensing measurements. In addition to accounting for sources of error that would be normally expected in conventional biomass estimates (e.g., measurement and allometric errors), we examined two sources of uncertaintymore » that are specific to the calibration process and should be taken into account in most remote sensing studies: the error resulting from spatial disagreement between field and remote sensing measurements (i.e., co-location error), and the error introduced when accounting for temporal differences in data acquisition. We found that the overall uncertainty in the field biomass was typically 25% for both secondary and primary forests, but ranged from 16 to 53%. Co-location and temporal errors accounted for a large fraction of the total variance (>65%) and were identified as important targets for reducing uncertainty in studies relating tropical forest biomass to remotely sensed data. Although measurement and allometric errors were relatively unimportant when considered alone, combined they accounted for roughly 30% of the total variance on average and should not be ignored. Lastly, our results suggest that a thorough understanding of the sources of error associated with field-measured plot-level biomass estimates in tropical forests is critical to determine confidence in remote sensing estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes, and to develop strategies for reducing the overall uncertainty of remote sensing approaches.« less

Imaging phased telescope array study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, James E.

1989-01-01

The problems encountered in obtaining a wide field-of-view with large, space-based direct imaging phased telescope arrays were considered. After defining some of the critical systems issues, previous relevant work in the literature was reviewed and summarized. An extensive list was made of potential error sources and the error sources were categorized in the form of an error budget tree including optical design errors, optical fabrication errors, assembly and alignment errors, and environmental errors. After choosing a top level image quality requirment as a goal, a preliminary tops-down error budget allocation was performed; then, based upon engineering experience, detailed analysis, or data from the literature, a bottoms-up error budget reallocation was performed in an attempt to achieve an equitable distribution of difficulty in satisfying the various allocations. This exercise provided a realistic allocation for residual off-axis optical design errors in the presence of state-of-the-art optical fabrication and alignment errors. Three different computational techniques were developed for computing the image degradation of phased telescope arrays due to aberrations of the individual telescopes. Parametric studies and sensitivity analyses were then performed for a variety of subaperture configurations and telescope design parameters in an attempt to determine how the off-axis performance of a phased telescope array varies as the telescopes are scaled up in size. The Air Force Weapons Laboratory (AFWL) multipurpose telescope testbed (MMTT) configuration was analyzed in detail with regard to image degradation due to field curvature and distortion of the individual telescopes as they are scaled up in size.

A Preliminary ZEUS Lightning Location Error Analysis Using a Modified Retrieval Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elander, Valjean; Koshak, William; Phanord, Dieudonne

2004-01-01

The ZEUS long-range VLF arrival time difference lightning detection network now covers both Europe and Africa, and there are plans for further expansion into the western hemisphere. In order to fully optimize and assess ZEUS lightning location retrieval errors and to determine the best placement of future receivers expected to be added to the network, a software package is being developed jointly between the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV). The software package, called the ZEUS Error Analysis for Lightning (ZEAL), will be used to obtain global scale lightning location retrieval error maps using both a Monte Carlo approach and chi-squared curvature matrix theory. At the core of ZEAL will be an implementation of an Iterative Oblate (IO) lightning location retrieval method recently developed at MSFC. The IO method will be appropriately modified to account for variable wave propagation speed, and the new retrieval results will be compared with the current ZEUS retrieval algorithm to assess potential improvements. In this preliminary ZEAL work effort, we defined 5000 source locations evenly distributed across the Earth. We then used the existing (as well as potential future ZEUS sites) to simulate arrival time data between source and ZEUS site. A total of 100 sources were considered at each of the 5000 locations, and timing errors were selected from a normal distribution having a mean of 0 seconds and a standard deviation of 20 microseconds. This simulated "noisy" dataset was analyzed using the IO algorithm to estimate source locations. The exact locations were compared with the retrieved locations, and the results are summarized via several color-coded "error maps."

Pointing error analysis of Risley-prism-based beam steering system.

PubMed

Zhou, Yuan; Lu, Yafei; Hei, Mo; Liu, Guangcan; Fan, Dapeng

2014-09-01

Based on the vector form Snell's law, ray tracing is performed to quantify the pointing errors of Risley-prism-based beam steering systems, induced by component errors, prism orientation errors, and assembly errors. Case examples are given to elucidate the pointing error distributions in the field of regard and evaluate the allowances of the error sources for a given pointing accuracy. It is found that the assembly errors of the second prism will result in more remarkable pointing errors in contrast with the first one. The pointing errors induced by prism tilt depend on the tilt direction. The allowances of bearing tilt and prism tilt are almost identical if the same pointing accuracy is planned. All conclusions can provide a theoretical foundation for practical works.

Frontal midline theta and the error-related negativity: neurophysiological mechanisms of action regulation.

PubMed

Luu, Phan; Tucker, Don M; Makeig, Scott

2004-08-01

The error-related negativity (ERN) is an event-related potential (ERP) peak occurring between 50 and 100 ms after the commission of a speeded motor response that the subject immediately realizes to be in error. The ERN is believed to index brain processes that monitor action outcomes. Our previous analyses of ERP and EEG data suggested that the ERN is dominated by partial phase-locking of intermittent theta-band EEG activity. In this paper, this possibility is further evaluated. The possibility that the ERN is produced by phase-locking of theta-band EEG activity was examined by analyzing the single-trial EEG traces from a forced-choice speeded response paradigm before and after applying theta-band (4-7 Hz) filtering and by comparing the averaged and single-trial phase-locked (ERP) and non-phase-locked (other) EEG data. Electrical source analyses were used to estimate the brain sources involved in the generation of the ERN. Beginning just before incorrect button presses in a speeded choice response paradigm, midfrontal theta-band activity increased in amplitude and became partially and transiently phase-locked to the subject's motor response, accounting for 57% of ERN peak amplitude. The portion of the theta-EEG activity increase remaining after subtracting the response-locked ERP from each trial was larger and longer lasting after error responses than after correct responses, extending on average 400 ms beyond the ERN peak. Multiple equivalent-dipole source analysis suggested 3 possible equivalent dipole sources of the theta-bandpassed ERN, while the scalp distribution of non-phase-locked theta amplitude suggested the presence of additional frontal theta-EEG sources. These results appear consistent with a body of research that demonstrates a relationship between limbic theta activity and action regulation, including error monitoring and learning.

Transient shifts in frontal and parietal circuits scale with enhanced visual feedback and changes in force variability and error

PubMed Central

Poon, Cynthia; Coombes, Stephen A.; Corcos, Daniel M.; Christou, Evangelos A.

2013-01-01

When subjects perform a learned motor task with increased visual gain, error and variability are reduced. Neuroimaging studies have identified a corresponding increase in activity in parietal cortex, premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and extrastriate visual cortex. Much less is understood about the neural processes that underlie the immediate transition from low to high visual gain within a trial. This study used 128-channel electroencephalography to measure cortical activity during a visually guided precision grip task, in which the gain of the visual display was changed during the task. Force variability during the transition from low to high visual gain was characterized by an inverted U-shape, whereas force error decreased from low to high gain. Source analysis identified cortical activity in the same structures previously identified using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Source analysis also identified a time-varying shift in the strongest source activity. Superior regions of the motor and parietal cortex had stronger source activity from 300 to 600 ms after the transition, whereas inferior regions of the extrastriate visual cortex had stronger source activity from 500 to 700 ms after the transition. Force variability and electrical activity were linearly related, with a positive relation in the parietal cortex and a negative relation in the frontal cortex. Force error was nonlinearly related to electrical activity in the parietal cortex and frontal cortex by a quadratic function. This is the first evidence that force variability and force error are systematically related to a time-varying shift in cortical activity in frontal and parietal cortex in response to enhanced visual gain. PMID:23365186

Infovigilance: reporting errors in official drug information sources.

PubMed

Fusier, Isabelle; Tollier, Corinne; Husson, Marie-Caroline

2005-06-01

The French drug database Thériaque (http://www.theriaque.org) developed by the (Centre National Hospitalier d'Information sur le Médicament) (CNHIM), is responsible for the dissemination of independent information about all drugs available in France. Each month the CNHIM pharmacists report problems due to inaccuracies in these sources to the French drug agency. In daily practice we devised the term "infovigilance": "Activity of error or inaccuracy notification in information sources which could be responsible for medication errors". The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of CNHIM infovigilance on the contents of the Summary of Product Characteristics (SPCs). The study was a prospective study from 09/11/2001 to 31/12/2002. The problems related to the quality of information were classified into four types (inaccuracy/confusion, error/lack of information, discordance between SPC sections and discordance between generic SPCs). (1) Number of notifications and number of SPCs integrated into the database during the study period. (2) Percentage of notifications for each type: with or without potential patient impact, with or without later correction of the SPC, per section. 2.7% (85/3151) of SPCs integrated into the database were concerned by a notification of a problem. Notifications according to type of problem were inaccuracy/confusion (32%), error/lack of information (13%), discordance between SPC sections (27%) and discordance between generic SPCs (28%). 55% of problems were evaluated as 'likely to have an impact on the patient' and 45% as 'unlikely to have an impact on the patient'. 22 of problems which have been reported to the French drug agency were corrected and new updated SPCs were published with the corrections. Our efforts to improve the quality of drug information sources through a continuous "infovigilance" process need to be continued and extended to other information sources.

A function space approach to smoothing with applications to model error estimation for flexible spacecraft control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1981-01-01

A function space approach to smoothing is used to obtain a set of model error estimates inherent in a reduced-order model. By establishing knowledge of inevitable deficiencies in the truncated model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model and thereby improving system performance. The function space smoothing solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for spacecraft attitude control.

Model error estimation for distributed systems described by elliptic equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1983-01-01

A function space approach is used to develop a theory for estimation of the errors inherent in an elliptic partial differential equation model for a distributed parameter system. By establishing knowledge of the inevitable deficiencies in the model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model. The function space solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for static shape determination of large flexible systems.

Harmonization of forest disturbance datasets of the conterminous USA from 1986 to 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Cohen, Warren B.; Yang, Zhiqiang; Stehman, Stephen V.; Taylor, Janis L.

2017-01-01

Several spatial forest disturbance datasets exist for the conterminous USA. The major problem with forest disturbance mapping is that variability between map products leads to uncertainty regarding the actual rate of disturbance. In this article, harmonized maps were produced from multiple data sources (i.e., Global Forest Change, LANDFIRE Vegetation Disturbance, National Land Cover Database, Vegetation Change Tracker, and Web-Enabled Landsat Data). The harmonization process involved fitting common class ontologies and determining spatial congruency to produce forest disturbance maps for four time intervals (1986–1992, 1992–2001, 2001–2006, and 2006–2011). Pixels mapped as disturbed for two or more datasets were labeled as disturbed in the harmonized maps. The primary advantage gained by harmonization was improvement in commission error rates relative to the individual disturbance products. Disturbance omission errors were high for both harmonized and individual forest disturbance maps due to underlying limitations in mapping subtle disturbances with Landsat classification algorithms. To enhance the value of the harmonized disturbance products, we used fire perimeter maps to add information on the cause of disturbance.

Localization of virtual sound at 4 Gz.

PubMed

Sandor, Patrick M B; McAnally, Ken I; Pellieux, Lionel; Martin, Russell L

2005-02-01

Acceleration directed along the body's z-axis (Gz) leads to misperception of the elevation of visual objects (the "elevator illusion"), most probably as a result of errors in the transformation from eye-centered to head-centered coordinates. We have investigated whether the location of sound sources is misperceived under increased Gz. Visually guided localization responses were made, using a remotely controlled laser pointer, to virtual auditory targets under conditions of 1 and 4 Gz induced in a human centrifuge. As these responses would be expected to be affected by the elevator illusion, we also measured the effect of Gz on the accuracy with which subjects could point to the horizon. Horizon judgments were lower at 4 Gz than at 1 Gz, so sound localization responses at 4 Gz were corrected for this error in the transformation from eye-centered to head-centered coordinates. We found that the accuracy and bias of sound localization are not significantly affected by increased Gz. The auditory modality is likely to provide a reliable means of conveying spatial information to operators in dynamic environments in which Gz can vary.

Significantly improved precision of cell migration analysis in time-lapse video microscopy through use of a fully automated tracking system

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Cell motility is a critical parameter in many physiological as well as pathophysiological processes. In time-lapse video microscopy, manual cell tracking remains the most common method of analyzing migratory behavior of cell populations. In addition to being labor-intensive, this method is susceptible to user-dependent errors regarding the selection of "representative" subsets of cells and manual determination of precise cell positions. Results We have quantitatively analyzed these error sources, demonstrating that manual cell tracking of pancreatic cancer cells lead to mis-calculation of migration rates of up to 410%. In order to provide for objective measurements of cell migration rates, we have employed multi-target tracking technologies commonly used in radar applications to develop fully automated cell identification and tracking system suitable for high throughput screening of video sequences of unstained living cells. Conclusion We demonstrate that our automatic multi target tracking system identifies cell objects, follows individual cells and computes migration rates with high precision, clearly outperforming manual procedures. PMID:20377897

Impact of rock mass temperature on potential power and electricity generation in the ORC installation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaczmarczyk, Michał

2017-11-01

The basic source of information for determining the temperature distribution in the rock mass and thus the potential for thermal energy contained in geothermal water conversion to electricity, are: temperature measurements in stable geothermic conditions, temperature measurements in unstable conditions, measurements of maximum temperatures at the bottom of the well. Incorrect temperature estimation can lead to errors during thermodynamic parameters calculation and consequently economic viability of the project. The analysis was performed for the geothermal water temperature range of 86-100°C, for dry working fluid R245fa. As a result of the calculations, the data indicate an increase in geothermal power as the geothermal water temperature increases. At 86°C, the potential power is 817.48 kW, increases to 912.20 kW at 88°C and consequently to 1 493.34 kW at 100°C. These results are not surprising, but show a scale of error in assessing the potential that can result improper interpretation of the rock mass and geothermal waters temperature.

Harmonization of forest disturbance datasets of the conterminous USA from 1986 to 2011.

PubMed

Soulard, Christopher E; Acevedo, William; Cohen, Warren B; Yang, Zhiqiang; Stehman, Stephen V; Taylor, Janis L

2017-04-01

Several spatial forest disturbance datasets exist for the conterminous USA. The major problem with forest disturbance mapping is that variability between map products leads to uncertainty regarding the actual rate of disturbance. In this article, harmonized maps were produced from multiple data sources (i.e., Global Forest Change, LANDFIRE Vegetation Disturbance, National Land Cover Database, Vegetation Change Tracker, and Web-Enabled Landsat Data). The harmonization process involved fitting common class ontologies and determining spatial congruency to produce forest disturbance maps for four time intervals (1986-1992, 1992-2001, 2001-2006, and 2006-2011). Pixels mapped as disturbed for two or more datasets were labeled as disturbed in the harmonized maps. The primary advantage gained by harmonization was improvement in commission error rates relative to the individual disturbance products. Disturbance omission errors were high for both harmonized and individual forest disturbance maps due to underlying limitations in mapping subtle disturbances with Landsat classification algorithms. To enhance the value of the harmonized disturbance products, we used fire perimeter maps to add information on the cause of disturbance.

A portable measuring system for a competitive binding glucose biosensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colvin, Lydia E.; Means, A. Kristen; Grunlan, Melissa A.; Coté, Gerard L.

2018-02-01

Central to minimizing the long- and short-term complications associated with diabetes is careful monitoring and maintenance of blood glucose at normal levels. Towards replacing conventionally used finger-prick glucose testing, indwelling continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) based on amperometric electrodes have been introduced to the market. Envisioned to lead to a CGM with an increased lifetime, we report herein a fluorescently-labeled competitive binding assay contained within a hydrogel membrane whose glucose response is measured via a novel portable system. The optical system design included a laser source, bifurcated fiber, laser filter and simple fiber coupled spectrometer to obtain the change in FRET pair ratio of the assay. Glucose response of the assay in free solution was measured using this system across the physiologic range (0-200 mg/dL). The FRET pair ratio signal was seen to increase with glucose and the standard error of calibration was 22.42 mg/dL with a MARD value of 14.85%. When the assay was contained within the hydrogel membrane's central cavity and similarly analyzed, the standard error increased but the assay maintained its reversibility.

Effect of Local TOF Kernel Miscalibrations on Contrast-Noise in TOF PET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementel, Enrico; Mollet, Pieter; Vandenberghe, Stefaan

2013-06-01

TOF PET imaging requires specific calibrations: accurate characterization of the system timing resolution and timing offset is required to achieve the full potential image quality. Current system models used in image reconstruction assume a spatially uniform timing resolution kernel. Furthermore, although the timing offset errors are often pre-corrected, this correction becomes less accurate with the time since, especially in older scanners, the timing offsets are often calibrated only during the installation, as the procedure is time-consuming. In this study, we investigate and compare the effects of local mismatch of timing resolution when a uniform kernel is applied to systems with local variations in timing resolution and the effects of uncorrected time offset errors on image quality. A ring-like phantom was acquired on a Philips Gemini TF scanner and timing histograms were obtained from coincidence events to measure timing resolution along all sets of LORs crossing the scanner center. In addition, multiple acquisitions of a cylindrical phantom, 20 cm in diameter with spherical inserts, and a point source were simulated. A location-dependent timing resolution was simulated, with a median value of 500 ps and increasingly large local variations, and timing offset errors ranging from 0 to 350 ps were also simulated. Images were reconstructed with TOF MLEM with a uniform kernel corresponding to the effective timing resolution of the data, as well as with purposefully mismatched kernels. To CRC vs noise curves were measured over the simulated cylinder realizations, while the simulated point source was processed to generate timing histograms of the data. Results show that timing resolution is not uniform over the FOV of the considered scanner. The simulated phantom data indicate that CRC is moderately reduced in data sets with locally varying timing resolution reconstructed with a uniform kernel, while still performing better than non-TOF reconstruction. On the other hand, uncorrected offset errors in our setup have a larger potential for decreasing image quality and can lead to a reduction of CRC of up to 15% and an increase in the measured timing resolution kernel up to 40%. However, in realistic conditions in frequently calibrated systems, using a larger effective timing kernel in image reconstruction can compensate uncorrected offset errors.

Visuomotor adaptation needs a validation of prediction error by feedback error

PubMed Central

Gaveau, Valérie; Prablanc, Claude; Laurent, Damien; Rossetti, Yves; Priot, Anne-Emmanuelle

2014-01-01

The processes underlying short-term plasticity induced by visuomotor adaptation to a shifted visual field are still debated. Two main sources of error can induce motor adaptation: reaching feedback errors, which correspond to visually perceived discrepancies between hand and target positions, and errors between predicted and actual visual reafferences of the moving hand. These two sources of error are closely intertwined and difficult to disentangle, as both the target and the reaching limb are simultaneously visible. Accordingly, the goal of the present study was to clarify the relative contributions of these two types of errors during a pointing task under prism-displaced vision. In “terminal feedback error” condition, viewing of their hand by subjects was allowed only at movement end, simultaneously with viewing of the target. In “movement prediction error” condition, viewing of the hand was limited to movement duration, in the absence of any visual target, and error signals arose solely from comparisons between predicted and actual reafferences of the hand. In order to prevent intentional corrections of errors, a subthreshold, progressive stepwise increase in prism deviation was used, so that subjects remained unaware of the visual deviation applied in both conditions. An adaptive aftereffect was observed in the “terminal feedback error” condition only. As far as subjects remained unaware of the optical deviation and self-assigned pointing errors, prediction error alone was insufficient to induce adaptation. These results indicate a critical role of hand-to-target feedback error signals in visuomotor adaptation; consistent with recent neurophysiological findings, they suggest that a combination of feedback and prediction error signals is necessary for eliciting aftereffects. They also suggest that feedback error updates the prediction of reafferences when a visual perturbation is introduced gradually and cognitive factors are eliminated or strongly attenuated. PMID:25408644

Imagery encoding and false recognition errors: Examining the role of imagery process and imagery content on source misattributions.

PubMed

Foley, Mary Ann; Foy, Jeffrey; Schlemmer, Emily; Belser-Ehrlich, Janna

2010-11-01

Imagery encoding effects on source-monitoring errors were explored using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott paradigm in two experiments. While viewing thematically related lists embedded in mixed picture/word presentations, participants were asked to generate images of objects or words (Experiment 1) or to simply name the items (Experiment 2). An encoding task intended to induce spontaneous images served as a control for the explicit imagery instruction conditions (Experiment 1). On the picture/word source-monitoring tests, participants were much more likely to report "seeing" a picture of an item presented as a word than the converse particularly when images were induced spontaneously. However, this picture misattribution error was reversed after generating images of words (Experiment 1) and was eliminated after simply labelling the items (Experiment 2). Thus source misattributions were sensitive to the processes giving rise to imagery experiences (spontaneous vs deliberate), the kinds of images generated (object vs word images), and the ways in which materials were presented (as pictures vs words).

Over-Distribution in Source Memory

PubMed Central

Brainerd, C. J.; Reyna, V. F.; Holliday, R. E.; Nakamura, K.

2012-01-01

Semantic false memories are confounded with a second type of error, over-distribution, in which items are attributed to contradictory episodic states. Over-distribution errors have proved to be more common than false memories when the two are disentangled. We investigated whether over-distribution is prevalent in another classic false memory paradigm: source monitoring. It is. Conventional false memory responses (source misattributions) were predominantly over-distribution errors, but unlike semantic false memory, over-distribution also accounted for more than half of true memory responses (correct source attributions). Experimental control of over-distribution was achieved via a series of manipulations that affected either recollection of contextual details or item memory (concreteness, frequency, list-order, number of presentation contexts, and individual differences in verbatim memory). A theoretical model was used to analyze the data (conjoint process dissociation) that predicts that predicts that (a) over-distribution is directly proportional to item memory but inversely proportional to recollection and (b) item memory is not a necessary precondition for recollection of contextual details. The results were consistent with both predictions. PMID:21942494

A model of memory impairment in schizophrenia: cognitive and clinical factors associated with memory efficiency and memory errors.

PubMed

Brébion, Gildas; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Ohlsen, Ruth I; David, Anthony S

2013-12-01

Memory impairments in patients with schizophrenia have been associated with various cognitive and clinical factors. Hallucinations have been more specifically associated with errors stemming from source monitoring failure. We conducted a broad investigation of verbal memory and visual memory as well as source memory functioning in a sample of patients with schizophrenia. Various memory measures were tallied, and we studied their associations with processing speed, working memory span, and positive, negative, and depressive symptoms. Superficial and deep memory processes were differentially associated with processing speed, working memory span, avolition, depression, and attention disorders. Auditory/verbal and visual hallucinations were differentially associated with specific types of source memory error. We integrated all the results into a revised version of a previously published model of memory functioning in schizophrenia. The model describes the factors that affect memory efficiency, as well as the cognitive underpinnings of hallucinations within the source monitoring framework. © 2013.

Analytical investigation of adaptive control of radiated inlet noise from turbofan engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Risi, John D.; Burdisso, Ricardo A.

1994-01-01

An analytical model has been developed to predict the resulting far field radiation from a turbofan engine inlet. A feedforward control algorithm was simulated to predict the controlled far field radiation from the destructive combination of fan noise and secondary control sources. Numerical results were developed for two system configurations, with the resulting controlled far field radiation patterns showing varying degrees of attenuation and spillover. With one axial station of twelve control sources and error sensors with equal relative angular positions, nearly global attenuation is achieved. Shifting the angular position of one error sensor resulted in an increase of spillover to the extreme sidelines. The complex control inputs for each configuration was investigated to identify the structure of the wave pattern created by the control sources, giving an indication of performance of the system configuration. It is deduced that the locations of the error sensors and the control source configuration are equally critical to the operation of the active noise control system.

Geometric error characterization and error budgets. [thematic mapper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beyer, E.

1982-01-01

Procedures used in characterizing geometric error sources for a spaceborne imaging system are described using the LANDSAT D thematic mapper ground segment processing as the prototype. Software was tested through simulation and is undergoing tests with the operational hardware as part of the prelaunch system evaluation. Geometric accuracy specifications, geometric correction, and control point processing are discussed. Cross track and along track errors are tabulated for the thematic mapper, the spacecraft, and ground processing to show the temporal registration error budget in pixel (42.5 microrad) 90%.

Evaluation of Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements of river discharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morlock, S.E.

1996-01-01

The standard deviations of the ADCP measurements ranged from approximately 1 to 6 percent and were generally higher than the measurement errors predicted by error-propagation analysis of ADCP instrument performance. These error-prediction methods assume that the largest component of ADCP discharge measurement error is instrument related. The larger standard deviations indicate that substantial portions of measurement error may be attributable to sources unrelated to ADCP electronics or signal processing and are functions of the field environment.

On Detecting New Worlds: The Art of Doppler Spectroscopy with Iodine Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Sharon Xuesong

2016-08-01

The first discovery of an extra-solar planet (exoplanet) around a main-sequence star, 51 Peg b, discovered using Doppler spectroscopy, opened up the field of exoplanets. For more than a decade, the dominant way for finding exoplanets was using precise Doppler spectroscopy to measure the radial velocity (RV) changes of stars. Today, precise Doppler spectroscopy is still crucial for the discovery and characterization of exoplanets, and it has a great chance for finding the first rocky exoplanet in the Habitable Zone of its host star. However, such endeavor requires an exquisite precision of 10-50 cm/s while the current state of the art is 1 m/s. This thesis set out to improve the RV precision of two precise Doppler spectrometers on two 10-meter class telescopes: HET/HRS and Keck/HIRES. Both of these spectrometers use iodine cells as their wavelength calibration sources, and their spectral data are being analyzed via forward modeling to estimate stellar RVs. Neither HET/HRS or Keck/HIRES deliver an RV precision at the photon-limited level, meaning that there are additional RV systematic errors caused by instrumental changes or errors in the data analysis. HET/HRS has an RV precision of 3-5 m/s, while Keck/HIRES has about 1-2 m/s. I have found that the leading cause behind HET/HRS's "under-performance" in comparison to Keck/HIRES is temperature changes of the iodine gas cell (and thus an inaccurate iodine reference spectrum). Another reason is the insufficient modeling of the HET/HRS instrumental profile. While Keck/HIRES does not suffer from these problems, it also has several RV systematic error sources of con siderable sizes. The work in this thesis has revealed that the errors in Keck/HIRES's stellar reference spectrum add about 1 m/s to the error budget and are the major drivers behind the spurious RV signal at the period of a sidereal year and its harmonics. Telluric contamination and errors caused by the spectral fitting algorithm also contribute on the level of 20-50 cm/s. The strategies proposed and tested in this thesis will improve the RV precision of HET/HRS and Keck/HIRES, including their decade worth of archival data. This thesis also documents my work on characterizing exoplanet orbits using RV data and the discovery of HD 37605c. It concludes with a summary of major findings and an outline of future plans to use future precise Doppler spectrometers to move towards the goal of 10 cm/s and detecting Earth 2.0.

Characteristics of Interruptions During Medication Administration:An Integrative Review of Direct Observational Studies.

PubMed

Schroers, Ginger

2018-06-26

The purpose of this review was to synthesize and summarize data gathered by direct observation of the characteristics of interruptions in the context of nursing medication administration in hospital settings. Interruptions are prevalent during the medication administration process performed by nurses in hospital settings and have been found to be associated with an increase in frequency and severity of nursing medication administration errors. In addition, interruptions decrease task efficiency, leading to longer medication administration completion times. Integrative review. The electronic databases Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PubMED, PsyARTICLES, and Google Scholar were searched using the terms "interruptions" AND "medication administration" AND "direct observation". Nine articles met the inclusion criteria. Interruptions are likely to occur at least once during nursing medication administration processes in hospital settings. This finding applies to medication administered to one patient, termed a medication pass, and medication administered to multiple patients, termed a mediation round. Interruptions are most commonly caused by another nurse, staff member, or are self-initiated, and last approximately one minute in length. A raised awareness among staff of the most common sources of interruptions may encourage changes that lead to a decrease in the occurrence of interruptions. In addition, nurse leaders can apply an understanding of the common characteristics of interruptions to guide research, policies, and educational methods aimed at interruption management strategies. The findings from this review can be used to guide the identification and development of targeted interventions and strategies that would have the most substantial impact to reduce and manage interruptions during medication administration. Interruption management strategies have the potential to lead to a decrease in medication errors and an increase in task efficiency. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Analytical Assessment of Simultaneous Parallel Approach Feasibility from Total System Error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madden, Michael M.

2014-01-01

In a simultaneous paired approach to closely-spaced parallel runways, a pair of aircraft flies in close proximity on parallel approach paths. The aircraft pair must maintain a longitudinal separation within a range that avoids wake encounters and, if one of the aircraft blunders, avoids collision. Wake avoidance defines the rear gate of the longitudinal separation. The lead aircraft generates a wake vortex that, with the aid of crosswinds, can travel laterally onto the path of the trail aircraft. As runway separation decreases, the wake has less distance to traverse to reach the path of the trail aircraft. The total system error of each aircraft further reduces this distance. The total system error is often modeled as a probability distribution function. Therefore, Monte-Carlo simulations are a favored tool for assessing a "safe" rear-gate. However, safety for paired approaches typically requires that a catastrophic wake encounter be a rare one-in-a-billion event during normal operation. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation to assert this event rarity with confidence requires a massive number of runs. Such large runs do not lend themselves to rapid turn-around during the early stages of investigation when the goal is to eliminate the infeasible regions of the solution space and to perform trades among the independent variables in the operational concept. One can employ statistical analysis using simplified models more efficiently to narrow the solution space and identify promising trades for more in-depth investigation using Monte-Carlo simulations. These simple, analytical models not only have to address the uncertainty of the total system error but also the uncertainty in navigation sources used to alert an abort of the procedure. This paper presents a method for integrating total system error, procedure abort rates, avionics failures, and surveillance errors into a statistical analysis that identifies the likely feasible runway separations for simultaneous paired approaches.

Exploring Discretization Error in Simulation-Based Aerodynamic Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aftosmis, Michael J.; Nemec, Marian

2010-01-01

This work examines the level of discretization error in simulation-based aerodynamic databases and introduces strategies for error control. Simulations are performed using a parallel, multi-level Euler solver on embedded-boundary Cartesian meshes. Discretization errors in user-selected outputs are estimated using the method of adjoint-weighted residuals and we use adaptive mesh refinement to reduce these errors to specified tolerances. Using this framework, we examine the behavior of discretization error throughout a token database computed for a NACA 0012 airfoil consisting of 120 cases. We compare the cost and accuracy of two approaches for aerodynamic database generation. In the first approach, mesh adaptation is used to compute all cases in the database to a prescribed level of accuracy. The second approach conducts all simulations using the same computational mesh without adaptation. We quantitatively assess the error landscape and computational costs in both databases. This investigation highlights sensitivities of the database under a variety of conditions. The presence of transonic shocks or the stiffness in the governing equations near the incompressible limit are shown to dramatically increase discretization error requiring additional mesh resolution to control. Results show that such pathologies lead to error levels that vary by over factor of 40 when using a fixed mesh throughout the database. Alternatively, controlling this sensitivity through mesh adaptation leads to mesh sizes which span two orders of magnitude. We propose strategies to minimize simulation cost in sensitive regions and discuss the role of error-estimation in database quality.

Source structure errors in radio-interferometric clock synchronization for ten measured distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. B.

1981-01-01

The effects of source structure on radio interferometry measurements were investigated. The brightness distribution measurements for ten extragalactic sources were analyzed. Significant results are reported.

Number-counts slope estimation in the presence of Poisson noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitt, Juergen H. M. M.; Maccacaro, Tommaso

1986-01-01

The slope determination of a power-law number flux relationship in the case of photon-limited sampling. This case is important for high-sensitivity X-ray surveys with imaging telescopes, where the error in an individual source measurement depends on integrated flux and is Poisson, rather than Gaussian, distributed. A bias-free method of slope estimation is developed that takes into account the exact error distribution, the influence of background noise, and the effects of varying limiting sensitivities. It is shown that the resulting bias corrections are quite insensitive to the bias correction procedures applied, as long as only sources with signal-to-noise ratio five or greater are considered. However, if sources with signal-to-noise ratio five or less are included, the derived bias corrections depend sensitively on the shape of the error distribution.

Radiant Temperature Nulling Radiometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, Robert (Inventor)

2003-01-01

A self-calibrating nulling radiometer for non-contact temperature measurement of an object, such as a body of water, employs a black body source as a temperature reference, an optomechanical mechanism, e.g., a chopper, to switch back and forth between measuring the temperature of the black body source and that of a test source, and an infrared detection technique. The radiometer functions by measuring radiance of both the test and the reference black body sources; adjusting the temperature of the reference black body so that its radiance is equivalent to the test source; and, measuring the temperature of the reference black body at this point using a precision contact-type temperature sensor, to determine the radiative temperature of the test source. The radiation from both sources is detected by an infrared detector that converts the detected radiation to an electrical signal that is fed with a chopper reference signal to an error signal generator, such as a synchronous detector, that creates a precision rectified signal that is approximately proportional to the difference between the temperature of the reference black body and that of the test infrared source. This error signal is then used in a feedback loop to adjust the reference black body temperature until it equals that of the test source, at which point the error signal is nulled to zero. The chopper mechanism operates at one or more Hertz allowing minimization of l/f noise. It also provides pure chopping between the black body and the test source and allows continuous measurements.

Technical Note: Millimeter precision in ultrasound based patient positioning: Experimental quantification of inherent technical limitations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ballhausen, Hendrik, E-mail: hendrik.ballhausen@med.uni-muenchen.de; Hieber, Sheila; Li, Minglun

2014-08-15

Purpose: To identify the relevant technical sources of error of a system based on three-dimensional ultrasound (3D US) for patient positioning in external beam radiotherapy. To quantify these sources of error in a controlled laboratory setting. To estimate the resulting end-to-end geometric precision of the intramodality protocol. Methods: Two identical free-hand 3D US systems at both the planning-CT and the treatment room were calibrated to the laboratory frame of reference. Every step of the calibration chain was repeated multiple times to estimate its contribution to overall systematic and random error. Optimal margins were computed given the identified and quantified systematicmore » and random errors. Results: In descending order of magnitude, the identified and quantified sources of error were: alignment of calibration phantom to laser marks 0.78 mm, alignment of lasers in treatment vs planning room 0.51 mm, calibration and tracking of 3D US probe 0.49 mm, alignment of stereoscopic infrared camera to calibration phantom 0.03 mm. Under ideal laboratory conditions, these errors are expected to limit ultrasound-based positioning to an accuracy of 1.05 mm radially. Conclusions: The investigated 3D ultrasound system achieves an intramodal accuracy of about 1 mm radially in a controlled laboratory setting. The identified systematic and random errors require an optimal clinical tumor volume to planning target volume margin of about 3 mm. These inherent technical limitations do not prevent clinical use, including hypofractionation or stereotactic body radiation therapy.« less

Error-Based Design Space Windowing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papila, Melih; Papila, Nilay U.; Shyy, Wei; Haftka, Raphael T.; Fitz-Coy, Norman

2002-01-01

Windowing of design space is considered in order to reduce the bias errors due to low-order polynomial response surfaces (RS). Standard design space windowing (DSW) uses a region of interest by setting a requirement on response level and checks it by a global RS predictions over the design space. This approach, however, is vulnerable since RS modeling errors may lead to the wrong region to zoom on. The approach is modified by introducing an eigenvalue error measure based on point-to-point mean squared error criterion. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the benefit of the error-based DSW.

Dissociation of item and source memory in rhesus monkeys.

PubMed

Basile, Benjamin M; Hampton, Robert R

2017-09-01

Source memory, or memory for the context in which a memory was formed, is a defining characteristic of human episodic memory and source memory errors are a debilitating symptom of memory dysfunction. Evidence for source memory in nonhuman primates is sparse despite considerable evidence for other types of sophisticated memory and the practical need for good models of episodic memory in nonhuman primates. A previous study showed that rhesus monkeys confused the identity of a monkey they saw with a monkey they heard, but only after an extended memory delay. This suggests that they initially remembered the source - visual or auditory - of the information but forgot the source as time passed. Here, we present a monkey model of source memory that is based on this previous study. In each trial, monkeys studied two images, one that they simply viewed and touched and the other that they classified as a bird, fish, flower, or person. In a subsequent memory test, they were required to select the image from one source but avoid the other. With training, monkeys learned to suppress responding to images from the to-be-avoided source. After longer memory intervals, monkeys continued to show reliable item memory, discriminating studied images from distractors, but made many source memory errors. Monkeys discriminated source based on study method, not study order, providing preliminary evidence that our manipulation of retention interval caused errors due to source forgetting instead of source confusion. Finally, some monkeys learned to select remembered images from either source on cue, showing that they did indeed remember both items and both sources. This paradigm potentially provides a new model to study a critical aspect of episodic memory in nonhuman primates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A two-factor error model for quantitative steganalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böhme, Rainer; Ker, Andrew D.

2006-02-01

Quantitative steganalysis refers to the exercise not only of detecting the presence of hidden stego messages in carrier objects, but also of estimating the secret message length. This problem is well studied, with many detectors proposed but only a sparse analysis of errors in the estimators. A deep understanding of the error model, however, is a fundamental requirement for the assessment and comparison of different detection methods. This paper presents a rationale for a two-factor model for sources of error in quantitative steganalysis, and shows evidence from a dedicated large-scale nested experimental set-up with a total of more than 200 million attacks. Apart from general findings about the distribution functions found in both classes of errors, their respective weight is determined, and implications for statistical hypothesis tests in benchmarking scenarios or regression analyses are demonstrated. The results are based on a rigorous comparison of five different detection methods under many different external conditions, such as size of the carrier, previous JPEG compression, and colour channel selection. We include analyses demonstrating the effects of local variance and cover saturation on the different sources of error, as well as presenting the case for a relative bias model for between-image error.

Intrinsic errors in transporting a single-spin qubit through a double quantum dot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao; Barnes, Edwin; Kestner, J. P.; Das Sarma, S.

2017-07-01

Coherent spatial transport or shuttling of a single electron spin through semiconductor nanostructures is an important ingredient in many spintronic and quantum computing applications. In this work we analyze the possible errors in solid-state quantum computation due to leakage in transporting a single-spin qubit through a semiconductor double quantum dot. In particular, we consider three possible sources of leakage errors associated with such transport: finite ramping times, spin-dependent tunneling rates between quantum dots induced by finite spin-orbit couplings, and the presence of multiple valley states. In each case we present quantitative estimates of the leakage errors, and discuss how they can be minimized. The emphasis of this work is on how to deal with the errors intrinsic to the ideal semiconductor structure, such as leakage due to spin-orbit couplings, rather than on errors due to defects or noise sources. In particular, we show that in order to minimize leakage errors induced by spin-dependent tunnelings, it is necessary to apply pulses to perform certain carefully designed spin rotations. We further develop a formalism that allows one to systematically derive constraints on the pulse shapes and present a few examples to highlight the advantage of such an approach.

[Determination of the error of aerosol extinction coefficient measured by DOAS].

PubMed

Si, Fu-qi; Liu, Jian-guo; Xie, Pin-hua; Zhang, Yu-jun; Wang, Mian; Liu, Wen-qing; Hiroaki, Kuze; Liu, Cheng; Nobuo, Takeuchi

2006-10-01

The method of defining the error of aerosol extinction coefficient measured by differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) is described. Some factors which could bring errors to result, such as variation of source, integral time, atmospheric turbulence, calibration of system parameter, displacement of system, and back scattering of particles, are analyzed. The error of aerosol extinction coefficient, 0.03 km(-1), is determined by theoretical analysis and practical measurement.

Model Error Estimation for the CPTEC Eta Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tippett, Michael K.; daSilva, Arlindo

1999-01-01

Statistical data assimilation systems require the specification of forecast and observation error statistics. Forecast error is due to model imperfections and differences between the initial condition and the actual state of the atmosphere. Practical four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) methods try to fit the forecast state to the observations and assume that the model error is negligible. Here with a number of simplifying assumption, a framework is developed for isolating the model error given the forecast error at two lead-times. Two definitions are proposed for the Talagrand ratio tau, the fraction of the forecast error due to model error rather than initial condition error. Data from the CPTEC Eta Model running operationally over South America are used to calculate forecast error statistics and lower bounds for tau.

Evaluating a medical error taxonomy.

PubMed

Brixey, Juliana; Johnson, Todd R; Zhang, Jiajie

2002-01-01

Healthcare has been slow in using human factors principles to reduce medical errors. The Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH) recognizes that a lack of attention to human factors during product development may lead to errors that have the potential for patient injury, or even death. In response to the need for reducing medication errors, the National Coordinating Council for Medication Errors Reporting and Prevention (NCC MERP) released the NCC MERP taxonomy that provides a standard language for reporting medication errors. This project maps the NCC MERP taxonomy of medication error to MedWatch medical errors involving infusion pumps. Of particular interest are human factors associated with medical device errors. The NCC MERP taxonomy of medication errors is limited in mapping information from MEDWATCH because of the focus on the medical device and the format of reporting.

A line-source method for aligning on-board and other pinhole SPECT systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Susu; Bowsher, James; Yin, Fang-Fang

2013-12-15

Purpose: In order to achieve functional and molecular imaging as patients are in position for radiation therapy, a robotic multipinhole SPECT system is being developed. Alignment of the SPECT system—to the linear accelerator (LINAC) coordinate frame and to the coordinate frames of other on-board imaging systems such as cone-beam CT (CBCT)—is essential for target localization and image reconstruction. An alignment method that utilizes line sources and one pinhole projection is proposed and investigated to achieve this goal. Potentially, this method could also be applied to the calibration of the other pinhole SPECT systems.Methods: An alignment model consisting of multiple alignmentmore » parameters was developed which maps line sources in three-dimensional (3D) space to their two-dimensional (2D) projections on the SPECT detector. In a computer-simulation study, 3D coordinates of line-sources were defined in a reference room coordinate frame, such as the LINAC coordinate frame. Corresponding 2D line-source projections were generated by computer simulation that included SPECT blurring and noise effects. The Radon transform was utilized to detect angles (α) and offsets (ρ) of the line-source projections. Alignment parameters were then estimated by a nonlinear least squares method, based on the α and ρ values and the alignment model. Alignment performance was evaluated as a function of number of line sources, Radon transform accuracy, finite line-source width, intrinsic camera resolution, Poisson noise, and acquisition geometry. Experimental evaluations were performed using a physical line-source phantom and a pinhole-collimated gamma camera attached to a robot.Results: In computer-simulation studies, when there was no error in determining angles (α) and offsets (ρ) of the measured projections, six alignment parameters (three translational and three rotational) were estimated perfectly using three line sources. When angles (α) and offsets (ρ) were provided by the Radon transform, estimation accuracy was reduced. The estimation error was associated with rounding errors of Radon transform, finite line-source width, Poisson noise, number of line sources, intrinsic camera resolution, and detector acquisition geometry. Statistically, the estimation accuracy was significantly improved by using four line sources rather than three and by thinner line-source projections (obtained by better intrinsic detector resolution). With five line sources, median errors were 0.2 mm for the detector translations, 0.7 mm for the detector radius of rotation, and less than 0.5° for detector rotation, tilt, and twist. In experimental evaluations, average errors relative to a different, independent registration technique were about 1.8 mm for detector translations, 1.1 mm for the detector radius of rotation (ROR), 0.5° and 0.4° for detector rotation and tilt, respectively, and 1.2° for detector twist.Conclusions: Alignment parameters can be estimated using one pinhole projection of line sources. Alignment errors are largely associated with limited accuracy of the Radon transform in determining angles (α) and offsets (ρ) of the line-source projections. This alignment method may be important for multipinhole SPECT, where relative pinhole alignment may vary during rotation. For pinhole and multipinhole SPECT imaging on-board radiation therapy machines, the method could provide alignment of SPECT coordinates with those of CBCT and the LINAC.« less