Culture of College Readiness in No Excuses University Elementary Schools: Patterns and Trends within Six Exceptional Systems and the Relationship to Student Academic Achievement in Reading and Writing and Social Behavior in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alonso, Maria D.

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this mixed-methods case study was twofold: first, to explore the 6 exceptional systems of a culture of college readiness supported within 2 No Excuses University elementary schools and identify any patterns or trends that may exist across 4th- and 6th-grade levels, and second, to examine the relationship between these…

Effects of sampling interval on spatial patterns and statistics of watershed nitrogen concentration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, S.-S.D.; Usery, E.L.; Finn, M.P.; Bosch, D.D.

2009-01-01

This study investigates how spatial patterns and statistics of a 30 m resolution, model-simulated, watershed nitrogen concentration surface change with sampling intervals from 30 m to 600 m for every 30 m increase for the Little River Watershed (Georgia, USA). The results indicate that the mean, standard deviation, and variogram sills do not have consistent trends with increasing sampling intervals, whereas the variogram ranges remain constant. A sampling interval smaller than or equal to 90 m is necessary to build a representative variogram. The interpolation accuracy, clustering level, and total hot spot areas show decreasing trends approximating a logarithmic function. The trends correspond to the nitrogen variogram and start to level at a sampling interval of 360 m, which is therefore regarded as a critical spatial scale of the Little River Watershed. Copyright ?? 2009 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All right reserved.

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Dietary patterns are associated with metabolic syndrome in adult Samoans.

PubMed

DiBello, Julia R; McGarvey, Stephen T; Kraft, Peter; Goldberg, Robert; Campos, Hannia; Quested, Christine; Laumoli, Tuiasina Salamo; Baylin, Ana

2009-10-01

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome has reached epidemic levels in the Samoan Islands. In this cross-sectional study conducted in 2002-2003, dietary patterns were described among American Samoan (n = 723) and Samoan (n = 785) adults (> or =18 y) to identify neo-traditional and modern eating patterns and to relate these patterns to the presence of metabolic syndrome using Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. The neo-traditional dietary pattern, similar across both polities, was characterized by high intake of local foods, including crab/lobster, coconut products, and taro, and low intake of processed foods, including potato chips and soda. The modern pattern, also similar across both polities, was characterized by high intake of processed foods such as rice, potato chips, cake, and pancakes and low intake of local foods. The neo-traditional dietary pattern was associated with significantly higher serum HDL-cholesterol in American Samoa (P-trend = 0.05) and a decrease in abdominal circumference in American Samoa and Samoa (P-trend = 0.004 and 0.01, respectively). An inverse association was found with metabolic syndrome, although it did not reach significance (P = 0.23 in American Samoa; P = 0.13 in Samoa). The modern pattern was significantly positively associated with metabolic syndrome in Samoa (prevalence ratio = 1.21 for the fifth compared with first quintile; 95% CI: 0.93.1.57; P-trend = 0.05) and with increased serum triglyceride levels in both polities (P < 0.05). Reduced intake of processed foods high in refined grains and adherence to a neo-traditional eating pattern characterized by plant-based fiber, seafood, and coconut products may help to prevent growth in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in the Samoan islands.

Multivariate pattern recognition for diagnosis and prognosis in clinical neuroimaging: state of the art, current challenges and future trends.

PubMed

Haller, Sven; Lovblad, Karl-Olof; Giannakopoulos, Panteleimon; Van De Ville, Dimitri

2014-05-01

Many diseases are associated with systematic modifications in brain morphometry and function. These alterations may be subtle, in particular at early stages of the disease progress, and thus not evident by visual inspection alone. Group-level statistical comparisons have dominated neuroimaging studies for many years, proving fascinating insight into brain regions involved in various diseases. However, such group-level results do not warrant diagnostic value for individual patients. Recently, pattern recognition approaches have led to a fundamental shift in paradigm, bringing multivariate analysis and predictive results, notably for the early diagnosis of individual patients. We review the state-of-the-art fundamentals of pattern recognition including feature selection, cross-validation and classification techniques, as well as limitations including inter-individual variation in normal brain anatomy and neurocognitive reserve. We conclude with the discussion of future trends including multi-modal pattern recognition, multi-center approaches with data-sharing and cloud-computing.

Mapping Patterns and Trends in the Spatial Availability of Alcohol Using Low-Level Geographic Data: A Case Study in England 2003-2013.

PubMed

Angus, Colin; Holmes, John; Maheswaran, Ravi; Green, Mark A; Meier, Petra; Brennan, Alan

2017-04-12

Much literature examines the relationship between the spatial availability of alcohol and alcohol-related harm. This study aims to address an important gap in this evidence by using detailed outlet data to examine recent temporal trends in the sociodemographic distribution of spatial availability for different types of alcohol outlet in England. Descriptive analysis of measures of alcohol outlet density and proximity using extremely high resolution market research data stratified by outlet type and quintiles of area-level deprivation from 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was undertaken and hierarchical linear growth models fitted to explore the significance of socioeconomic differences. We find that overall availability of alcohol changed very little from 2003 to 2013 (density +1.6%), but this conceals conflicting trends by outlet type and area-level deprivation. Mean on-trade density has decreased substantially (-2.2 outlets within 1 km (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) -3-0), although access to restaurants has increased (+1.0 outlets (IQR 0-1)), while off-trade access has risen substantially (+2.4 outlets (IQR 0-3)). Availability is highest in the most deprived areas ( p < 0.0001) although these areas have also seen the greatest falls in on-trade outlet availability ( p < 0.0001). This study underlines the importance of using detailed, low-level geographic data to understand patterns and trends in the spatial availability of alcohol. There are significant variations in these trends by outlet type and deprivation level which may have important implications for health inequalities and public health policy.

Mapping Patterns and Trends in the Spatial Availability of Alcohol Using Low-Level Geographic Data: A Case Study in England 2003–2013

PubMed Central

Angus, Colin; Holmes, John; Maheswaran, Ravi; Green, Mark A.; Meier, Petra; Brennan, Alan

2017-01-01

Much literature examines the relationship between the spatial availability of alcohol and alcohol-related harm. This study aims to address an important gap in this evidence by using detailed outlet data to examine recent temporal trends in the sociodemographic distribution of spatial availability for different types of alcohol outlet in England. Descriptive analysis of measures of alcohol outlet density and proximity using extremely high resolution market research data stratified by outlet type and quintiles of area-level deprivation from 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was undertaken and hierarchical linear growth models fitted to explore the significance of socioeconomic differences. We find that overall availability of alcohol changed very little from 2003 to 2013 (density +1.6%), but this conceals conflicting trends by outlet type and area-level deprivation. Mean on-trade density has decreased substantially (−2.2 outlets within 1 km (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) −3–0), although access to restaurants has increased (+1.0 outlets (IQR 0–1)), while off-trade access has risen substantially (+2.4 outlets (IQR 0–3)). Availability is highest in the most deprived areas (p < 0.0001) although these areas have also seen the greatest falls in on-trade outlet availability (p < 0.0001). This study underlines the importance of using detailed, low-level geographic data to understand patterns and trends in the spatial availability of alcohol. There are significant variations in these trends by outlet type and deprivation level which may have important implications for health inequalities and public health policy. PMID:28417941

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

Trends in Student Aid, 2012. Trends in Higher Education Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baum, Sandy; Payea, Kathleen

2012-01-01

The recent focus on student debt makes reliable data about how much students are borrowing, how borrowing patterns differ among students across different types of institutions and at different levels of enrollment, and about changes over time particularly important. While total student borrowing has grown rapidly over the past decade, the rate of…

Outdoor recreation participation trends

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; R. Jeff Teasley; John C. Bergstrom; Jack Martin; Jim Bason; Vernon R. Leeworthy

1999-01-01

As part of the national assessment of outdoor recreation trends, the authors have taken a look at participation patterns and levels of participation across activities and across segments of our society. The primary source of data is the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE). The NSRE is the latest in the continuing series of National Recreation...

Risks from Worldwide Terrorism: Mortality and Morbidity Patterns and Trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogen, K T; Jones, E D

Worldwide data on terrorist incidents between 1968 and 2004 gathered by the RAND corporation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) were assessed for patterns and trends in morbidity/mortality. The data involve a total of 19,828 events, 7,401 ''adverse'' events (each causing {ge}1 victim), 91,346 cases of casualty (either injury or death) and 25,408 deaths. Analyses revealed a number of interesting patterns and apparently significant trends. Most terror-related adverse events, casualties and deaths involved bombs and guns. Weapon-specific patterns and terror-related risk levels in Israel (ISR) have differed markedly from those of all othermore » regions combined (AOR). ISR had a fatal fraction of casualties about half that of AOR, but has experienced relatively constant lifetime terror-related casualty risks on the order of 0.5%--a level 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more than those experienced in AOR, which have increased {approx}100-fold over the same period. Individual event fatality has increased steadily, the median increasing from 14 to 50%. Lorenz curves obtained indicate substantial dispersion among victim/event rates: about half of all victims were caused by the top 2% (10%) of harm-ranked events in OAR (ISR). Extreme values of victim/event rates were found to be well modeled by classic or generalized Pareto distributions, indicating that these rates have been as predictable as similarly extreme phenomena such as rainfall, sea levels, earthquakes, etc. This observation suggests that these extreme-value patterns may be used to improve strategies to prevent and manage risks associated with terror-related consequences.« less

North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

2009-04-01

Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9.

Time evolution of atmospheric parameters and their influence on sea level pressure over the head Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Anindita; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.; Jose, Felix

2018-06-01

A zonal dipole in the observed trends of wind speed and significant wave height over the Head Bay of Bengal region was recently reported in the literature attributed due to the variations in sea level pressure (SLP). The SLP in turn is governed by prevailing atmospheric conditions such as local temperature, humidity, rainfall, atmospheric pressure, wind field distribution, formation of tropical cyclones, etc. The present study attempts to investigate the inter-annual variability of atmospheric parameters and its role on the observed zonal dipole trend in sea level pressure, surface wind speed and significant wave height. It reports on the aspects related to linear trend as well as its spatial variability for several atmospheric parameters: air temperature, geopotential height, omega (vertical velocity), and zonal wind, over the head Bay of Bengal, by analyzing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 dataset covering a period of 38 years (1979-2016). Significant warming from sea level to 200 mb pressure level and thereafter cooling above has been noticed during all the seasons. Warming within the troposphere exhibits spatial difference between eastern and western side of the domain. This led to fall in lower tropospheric geopotential height and its east-west variability, exhibiting a zonal dipole pattern across the Head Bay. In the upper troposphere, uplift in geopotential height was found as a result of cooling in higher levels (10-100 mb). Variability in omega also substantiated the observed variations in geopotential height. The study also finds weakening in the upper level westerlies and easterlies. Interestingly, a linear trend in lower tropospheric u-wind component also reveals an east-west dipole pattern over the study region. Further, the study corroborates the reported dipole in trends of sea level pressure, wind speed and significant wave height by evaluating the influence of atmospheric variability on these parameters.

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Dosio, Alessandro; Feyen, Luc

2017-03-01

In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long-term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.

An investigation of the relationship between innovation and cultural diversity.

PubMed

Kandler, Anne; Laland, Kevin N

2009-08-01

In this paper we apply reaction-diffusion models to explore the relationship between the rate of behavioural innovation and the level of cultural diversity. We investigate how both independent invention and the modification and refinement of established innovations impact on cultural dynamics and diversity. Further, we analyse these relationships in the presence of biases in cultural learning and find that the introduction of new variants typically increases cultural diversity substantially in the short term, but may decrease long-term diversity. Independent invention generally supports higher levels of cultural diversity than refinement. Repeated patterns of innovation through refinement generate characteristic oscillating trends in diversity, with increasing trends towards greater average diversity observed for medium but not low innovation rates. Conformity weakens the relationship between innovation and diversity. The level of cultural diversity, and pattern of temporal dynamics, potentially provide clues as to the underlying process, which can be used to interpret empirical data.

The color of sea level: Importance of spatial variations in spectral shape for assessing the significance of trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.

2010-10-01

We investigate spatial variations in the shape of the spectrum of sea level variability based on a homogeneously sampled 12 year gridded altimeter data set. We present a method of plotting spectral information as color, focusing on periods between 2 and 24 weeks, which shows that significant spatial variations in the spectral shape exist and contain useful dynamical information. Using the Bayesian Information Criterion, we determine that, typically, a fifth-order autoregressive model is needed to capture the structure in the spectrum. Using this model, we show that statistical errors in fitted local trends range between less than 1 and more than 5 times of what would be calculated assuming "white" noise and that the time needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend ranges between about 5 years and many decades. For global mean sea level, the statistical error reduces to 0.1 mm/yr over 12 years, with only 2 years needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend. We find significant regional differences in trend from the global mean. The patterns of these regional differences are indicative of a sea level trend dominated by dynamical ocean processes over this period.

Staffing Patterns in American Education, 1973.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenfield, Phylis O.

This is the report of a survey of the patterns of supply and demand of educational personnel in the United States in 1973. Current trends for the different levels and specializations of educational practices, including pupil personnel services, are tabulated as to current needs (charts are included in the text). There are also comparisons of…

Cross-National Patterns of Participation in Adult Education and Policy Trends in Korea, Norway, and Vietnam

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desjardins, Richard; Melo, Veriene; Lee, Jeongwoo

2016-01-01

Using comparative data, this article examines the level and distribution of participation in adult education (AE) opportunities among countries that participated in PIAAC (Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies). It considers observed cross-country patterns in relation to some mechanisms that drive unequal chances to…

Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

PubMed

Smith, Adam C; Hudson, Marie-Anne R; Downes, Constance M; Francis, Charles M

2015-01-01

North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions

PubMed Central

Smith, Adam C.; Hudson, Marie-Anne R.; Downes, Constance M.; Francis, Charles M.

2015-01-01

North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species’ breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines. PMID:26147572

Long Term Precipitation Pattern Identification and Derivation of Non Linear Precipitation Trend in a Catchment using Singular Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Poornima; Jothiprakash, Vinayakam

2017-04-01

Precipitation is the major component in the hydrologic cycle. Awareness of not only the total amount of rainfall pertaining to a catchment, but also the pattern of its spatial and temporal distribution are equally important in the management of water resources systems in an efficient way. Trend is the long term direction of a time series; it determines the overall pattern of a time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series analysis technique that decomposes the time series into small components (eigen triples). This property of the method of SSA has been utilized to extract the trend component of the rainfall time series. In order to derive trend from the rainfall time series, we need to select components corresponding to trend from the eigen triples. For this purpose, periodogram analysis of the eigen triples have been proposed to be coupled with SSA, in the present study. In the study, seasonal data of England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) for a time period of 1766-2013 have been analyzed and non linear trend have been derived out of the precipitation data. In order to compare the performance of SSA in deriving trend component, Mann Kendall (MK) test is also used to detect trends in EWP seasonal series and the results have been compared. The result showed that the MK test could detect the presence of positive or negative trend for a significance level, whereas the proposed methodology of SSA could extract the non-linear trend present in the rainfall series along with its shape. We will discuss further the comparison of both the methodologies along with the results in the presentation.

No evidence for an epidemiological transition in sleep patterns among children: a 12-country study.

PubMed

Manyanga, Taru; Barnes, Joel D; Tremblay, Mark S; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Broyles, Stephanie T; Barreira, Tiago V; Fogelholm, Mikael; Hu, Gang; Maher, Carol; Maia, Jose; Olds, Timothy; Sarmiento, Olga L; Standage, Martyn; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Chaput, Jean-Philippe

2018-02-01

To examine the relationships between socioeconomic status (SES; household income and parental education) and objectively measured sleep patterns (sleep duration, sleep efficiency, and bedtime) among children from around the world and explore how the relationships differ across country levels of human development. Multinational, cross-sectional study from sites in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Finland, India, Kenya, Portugal, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The International Study of Childhood Obesity, Lifestyle and the Environment. A total of 6040 children aged 9-11 years. Sleep duration, sleep efficiency, and bedtime were monitored over 7 consecutive days using waist-worn accelerometers. Multilevel models were used to examine the relationships between sleep patterns and SES. In country-specific analyses, there were no significant linear trends for sleep duration and sleep efficiency based on income and education levels. There were significant linear trends in 4 countries for bedtime (Australia, United States, United Kingdom, and India), generally showing that children in the lowest income group had later bedtimes. Later bedtimes were associated with lowest level of parental education in only 2 countries (United Kingdom and India). Patterns of associations between sleep characteristics and SES were not different between boys and girls. Sleep patterns of children (especially sleep duration and efficiency) appear unrelated to SES in each of the 12 countries, with no differences across country levels of human development. The lack of evidence for an epidemiological transition in sleep patterns suggests that efforts to improve sleep hygiene of children should not be limited to any specific SES level. Copyright © 2017 National Sleep Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

2015-04-01

We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

Climate variability, vulnerability, and coping mechanism in Alaknanda catchment, Central Himalaya, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Kireet; Joshi, Sneh; Joshi, Varun

2008-06-01

A study was carried out to discover trends in the rainfall and temperature pattern of the Alaknanda catchment in the Central Himalaya. Data on the annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall for the last decade, and average annual temperatures over the last few decades were analyzed. Nonparametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's method) were employed to identify trends. The Mann-Kendall test shows a decline in rainfall and rise in temperature, and these trends were found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level for both transects. Sen's method also confirms this trend. This aspect has to be considered seriously for the simple reason that if the same trend continues in the future, more chances of drought are expected. The impact of climate change has been well perceived by the people of the catchment, and a coping mechanism has been developed at the local level.

Variations in extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau using a high-resolution dataset and their linkages with atmospheric circulation indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guangju; Zhai, Jianqing; Tian, Peng; Zhang, Limei; Mu, Xingmin; An, Zhengfeng; Han, Mengwei

2017-08-01

Assessing regional patterns and trends in extreme precipitation is crucial for facilitating flood control and drought adaptation because extreme climate events have more damaging impacts on society and ecosystems than simple shifts in the mean values. In this study, we employed daily precipitation data from 231 climate stations spanning 1961 to 2014 to explore the changes in precipitation extremes on the Loess Plateau, China. Nine of the 12 extreme precipitation indices suggested decreasing trends, and only the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and R10 declined significantly: - 0.69 mm/a and - 0.023 days/a at the 95% confidence level. The spatial patterns in all of the extreme precipitation indices indicated mixed trends on the Loess Plateau, with decreasing trends in the precipitation extremes at the majority of the stations examined in the Fen-Wei River valley and high-plain plateau. Most of extreme precipitation indices suggested apparent regional differences, whereas R25 and R20 had spatially similar patterns on the Loess Plateau, with many stations revealing no trends. In addition, we found a potential decreasing trend in rainfall amounts and rainy days and increasing trends in rainfall intensities and storm frequencies in some regions due to increasing precipitation events in recent years. The relationships between extreme rainfall events and atmospheric circulation indices suggest that the weakening trend in the East Asia summer monsoon has limited the northward extension of the rainfall belt to northern China, thereby leading to a decrease in rainfall on the Loess Plateau.

Trends of VOC exposures among a nationally representative sample: Analysis of the NHANES 1988 through 2004 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Feng-Chiao; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart

2011-09-01

Exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous due to emissions from personal, commercial and industrial products, but quantitative and representative information regarding long term exposure trends is lacking. This study characterizes trends from 1988 to 2004 for the 15 VOCs measured in blood in five cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a large and representative sample of U.S. adults. Trends were evaluated at various percentiles using linear quantile regression (QR) models, which were adjusted for solvent-related occupations and cotinine levels. Most VOCs showed decreasing trends at all quantiles, e.g., median exposures declined by 2.5 (m,p-xylene) to 6.4 (tetrachloroethene) percent per year over the 15 year period. Trends varied by VOC and quantile, and were grouped into three patterns: similar decreases at all quantiles (including benzene, toluene); most rapid decreases at upper quantiles (ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chloroform, tetrachloroethene); and fastest declines at central quantiles (1,4-dichlorobenzene). These patterns reflect changes in exposure sources, e.g., upper-percentile exposures may result mostly from occupational exposure, while lower percentile exposures arise from general environmental sources. Both VOC emissions aggregated at the national level and VOC concentrations measured in ambient air also have declined substantially over the study period and are supportive of the exposure trends, although the NHANES data suggest the importance of indoor sources and personal activities on VOC exposures. While piecewise QR models suggest that exposures of several VOCs decreased little or any during the 1990's, followed by more rapid decreases from 1999 to 2004, questions are raised concerning the reliability of VOC data in several of the NHANES cohorts and its applicability as an exposure indicator, as demonstrated by the modest correlation between VOC levels in blood and personal air collected in the 1999/2000 cohort. Despite some limitations, the NHANES data provides a unique, long term and direct measurement of VOC exposures and trends.

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, D.; Hessl, Amy E.; Peterson, D.L.

2001-01-01

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

A 15-year climatology of wind pattern impacts on surface ozone in Houston, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souri, Amir Hossein; Choi, Yunsoo; Li, Xiangshang; Kotsakis, Alexander; Jiang, Xun

2016-06-01

Houston is recognized for its large petrochemical industrial facilities providing abundant radicals for tropospheric ozone formation. Fortunately, maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) surface ozone concentrations have declined in Houston (- 0.6 ± 0.3 ppbv yr- 1) during the summers (i.e., May to September) of 2000 to 2014, possibly due to the reductions in precursor emissions by effective control policies. However, it is also possible that changes in meteorological variables have affected ozone concentrations. This study focused on the impact of long-term wind patterns which have the highest impact on ozone in Houston. The analysis of long-term wind patterns can benefit surface ozone studies by 1) providing wind patterns that distinctly changed ozone levels, 2) investigating the frequency of patterns and the respective changes and 3) estimating ozone trends in specific wind patterns that local emissions are mostly involved, thus separating emissions impacts from meteorology to some extent. To this end, the 900-hPa flow patterns in summers of 2000 to 2014 were clustered in seven classes (C1-C7) by deploying an unsupervised partitioning method. We confirm the characteristics of the clusters from a backward trajectory analysis, monitoring networks, and a regional chemical transport model simulation. The results indicate that Houston has experienced a statistically significant downward trend (- 0.6 ± 0.4 day yr- 1) of the cluster of weak easterly and northeasterly days (C4), when the highest fraction of ozone exceedances (MDA8 > 70 ppbv) occurred. This suggests that the reduction in ozone precursors was not the sole reason for the decrease in ozone exceedance days (- 1.5 ± 0.6 day yr- 1). Further, to examine the efficiency of control policies intended to reduce the amount of ozone, we estimated the trend of MDA8 ozone in C4 and C5 (weak winds) days when local emissions are primarily responsible for high ambient ozone levels. Both C4 and C5 show a large reduction in the 95th percentile and summertime trends mainly due to effective control strategies. Based on the 5th percentile daytime ozone for C1 (strong southeasterly wind) in coastal sites, this study found that the cleanest air masses that Houston received became more polluted during the summer of 2000-2014 by 1-3 ppbv. Though this study focused on Houston, the analysis method presented could generally be used to estimate ozone trends in other regions where surface ozone is dominantly influenced by both wind patterns and local emissions.

Recent Patterns of Population Change in America's Urban Places.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Kevin F.

Current U.S. settlement patterns have begun to exhibit a significant shift away from very large metropolitan centers toward more thinly settled peripheral areas. This new trend has been the subject of many recent studies which have considered data on the county level but have been unable to detect population movement within counties and among…

Predictors of Student Enrollment Patterns in High School Career Academies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, E. Daniel

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe participation patterns at the district level of students enrolled in career academies and determine whether participation in career academies is a function of demographic and/or prior learning experience and prior performance variables. Ex-post facto data was used to determine six-year enrollment trends.…

What Have We Been Writing about?: Patterns and Trends in the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning in Political Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craig, John

2014-01-01

It is more than 10 years since Kehl (2002) identified the increasing number of scholarship of teaching and learning (SoTL) papers being produced by political scientists. As noted by Hamann et al. (2009) and Whitman and Richlin (2007), this trend has developed further with increasing levels of research and publishing activity in political science…

Outdoor recreation activity trends by volume segments: U.S. and Northeast market analyses, 1982-1989

Treesearch

Rodney B. Warnick

1992-01-01

The purpose of this review was to examine volume segmentation within three selected outdoor recreational activities -- swimming, hunting and downhill skiing over an eight-year period, from 1982 through 1989 at the national level and within the Northeast Region of the U.S.; and to determine if trend patterns existed within any of these activities when the market size...

African urbanization in metropolitan South Africa--differential urbanization perspectives.

PubMed

Geyer, H S

1993-07-01

"As a potentially important urban development policy consideration, attention is focused in this paper on differential urbanization trends in South Africa at the metropolitan level. Recent informal urban settlement patterns of the African population within the major metropolitan areas are contrasted against these differential urbanization trends to determine the implications of both for residential development in the metropolitan areas during the post-apartheid era." excerpt

Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns.

PubMed

Austin, Elena; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent; Schwartz, Joel; Gold, Diane R; Koutrakis, Petros

2015-01-01

Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather conditions and O3 concentration.

Long-term variation of total ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, R. P.

1988-03-01

The long-term variation of total ozone is studied for 1957 up to date for different latitude zones. The 3-year running averages show that, apart from a small portion showing parallelism with sunspot cycles, the trends in different latitude zones are dissimilar. In particular, where northern latitudes show a rising trend, the southern latitudes show an opposite (decreasing) trend. In the north-temperate group, Europe, North America and Asia show dissimilar trends. The longer data series (1932 ownards) for Arosa shows, besides a solar-cycle-dependent component, a steady level during 1932 1953 and a down-trend thereafter up to date. Very localised but long-lasting circulation patterns, different in different geographical regions, are indicated.

Trend of Changes in Serum Albumin and Its Relation with Sex, Age, and BMI Following Laparoscopic Mini-gastric Bypass Surgery in Morbid Obese Cases.

PubMed

Karimi, Mehrdad; Kabir, Ali; Nejatifar, Masoumeh; Pazouki, Abdolreza

2018-03-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the pattern of changes in serum albumin level after mini-gastric bypass (MGB) and its association with gender, age, and body mass index (BMI) of the patients. This cohort study was conducted on 196 morbidly obese patients undergoing MGB followed for 1 year. The data on BMI, serum albumin level, demographic, anthropometric, biochemical variables and comorbidities were gathered before and after (3, 6, and 12 months) surgery. The trend of changes in BMI and serum albumin of the patients was investigated by repeated measures tests using general linear model (GLM) and generalized estimating equations (GEE) approaches. The mean age, baseline median BMI, and albumin of the patients were 41.34 ± 11.03 years, 44.54 kg/m 2 , and 4.00 g/dl, respectively. There was a chronologically significant trend of decline in BMI (P < 0.001). GEE demonstrated no chronologically significant trend in serum albumin (P = 0.278). The trend of changes in albumin was significantly associated only with age grouping and baseline serum albumin level (P = 0.017 and 0.001, respectively). This trend had fluctuations in patients older than 40 years with baseline serum albumin level of 3.50-3.90 g/dl. For patients with any age and baseline serum albumin level of 4.00-4.90 g/dl, this trend was stable in all periods of follow-up. MGB is an effective technique to lose weight. The trend of changes in serum albumin level was affected by its baseline levels and age.

Elkhorn Slough: Detecting Eutrophication through Geospatial Modeling Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraballo Álvarez, I. O.; Childs, A.; Jurich, K.

2016-12-01

Elkhorn Slough in Monterey, California, has experienced substantial nutrient loading and eutrophication over the past 21 years as a result of fertilizer-rich runoff from nearby agricultural fields. This study seeks to identify and track spatial patterns of eutrophication hotspots and the correlation to land use changes, possible nutrient sources, and general climatic trends using remotely sensed and in situ data. Threats of rising sea level, subsiding marshes, and increased eutrophication hotspots demonstrate the necessity to analyze the effects of increasing nutrient loads, relative sea level changes, and sedimentation within Elkhorn Slough. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model integrates specified inputs to assess nutrient and sediment loading and their sources. TerrSet's Land Change Modeler forecasts the future potential of land change transitions for various land cover classes around the slough as a result of nutrient loading, eutrophication, and increased sedimentation. TerrSet's Earth Trends Modeler provides a comprehensive analysis of image time series to rapidly assess long term eutrophication trends and detect spatial patterns of known hotspots. Results from this study will inform future coastal management practices and provide greater spatial and temporal insight into Elkhorn Slough eutrophication dynamics.

Increasing morphological complexity in multiple parallel lineages of the Crustacea

PubMed Central

Adamowicz, Sarah J.; Purvis, Andy; Wills, Matthew A.

2008-01-01

The prospect of finding macroevolutionary trends and rules in the history of life is tremendously appealing, but very few pervasive trends have been found. Here, we demonstrate a parallel increase in the morphological complexity of most of the deep lineages within a major clade. We focus on the Crustacea, measuring the morphological differentiation of limbs. First, we show a clear trend of increasing complexity among 66 free-living, ordinal-level taxa from the Phanerozoic fossil record. We next demonstrate that this trend is pervasive, occurring in 10 or 11 of 12 matched-pair comparisons (across five morphological diversity indices) between extinct Paleozoic and related Recent taxa. This clearly differentiates the pattern from the effects of lineage sorting. Furthermore, newly appearing taxa tend to have had more types of limbs and a higher degree of limb differentiation than the contemporaneous average, whereas those going extinct showed higher-than-average limb redundancy. Patterns of contemporary species diversity partially reflect the paleontological trend. These results provide a rare demonstration of a large-scale and probably driven trend occurring across multiple independent lineages and influencing both the form and number of species through deep time and in the present day. PMID:18347335

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier

The net primary productivity (NPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in carbon cycle. We used a combination of the most recent NDVI and model–based NPP estimates (from five models of the TRENDY project) for the period 1982-2012, to study the role of terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle under the prevailing climate conditions. We found that 80% and 67% of the global land area showed positive NPP and NDVI values, respectively, for this period. The global NPP was estimated to be about 63 Pg C y -1, with an increase of 0.214 Pgmore » C y -1 y -1. Similarly, the global mean NDVI was estimated to be 0.33, with an increasing trend of 0.00041 y-1. The spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI demonstrated substantial variability, especially at the regional level, for most part of the globe. However, on temporal scale, both global NPP and NDVI showed a corresponding pattern of increase (decrease) for the duration of this study except for few years (e.g. 1990 and 1995-98). Generally, the Northern Hemisphere showed stronger NDVI and NPP increasing trends over time compared to the Southern Hemisphere; however, NDVI showed larger trends in Temperate regions while NPP showed larger trends in Boreal regions. Among the five models, the maximum and minimum NPP were produced by JULES (72.4 Pg C y -1) and LPJ (53.72 Pg C y -1) models, respectively. At latitudinal level, the NDVI and NPP ranges were ~0.035 y -1 to ~-0.016 y -1 and ~0.10 Pg C y -1 y -1 to ~-0.047 Pg C y -1 y -1, respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the modeled NPP generally correspond to the NDVI trends in the temporal dimension. Lastly, the significant variability in spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI trends points to a need for research to understand the causes of these discrepancies between molded and observed ecosystem dynamics, and the carbon cycle.« less

Gulf Cooperation Council-dialysis outcomes and practice patterns study: An overview of anemia management trends at the regional and country specific levels in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

PubMed

Abouchacra, Samra; Obaidli, Ali; Al-Ghamdi, Saeed M G; Al Wakeel, Jamal; Al Salmi, Issa; Al Ghareeb, Sumaya; Al Azmi, Mohammad; Elsayed, Mohammed; Bieber, Brian A; Pisoni, Ronald L

2016-11-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council-Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (GCC-DOPPS) marks the joining of the six Gulf region countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to the main DOPPS study in 2012. The current review is a descriptive reporting on results related to the management of anemia from these countries. Our data demonstrate consistent anemia management patterns across the GCC countries allowing the achievement of international treatment levels. Overall, the majority of hemodialysis patients were prescribed appropriate erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and supplemental iron, enabling the attainment of mean hemoglobin (Hb) level of 10.9 g/dL. Comparisons of the individual country profiles reveal individual differences in the choice and mode of ESA and iron administration. However, all countries displayed good compliance with guideline recommendations. The same challenges as elsewhere are faced in the GCC, with respect to optimizing Hb levels and judiciously using ESA and iron supplements. Some opportunities exist for focused efforts to fine tune inter-facility variability in anemia management based on continued data tracking. The latter is vital in enabling adopting new trends to further improve not only anemia management but also the wholesome care of dialysis patients.

Families in a High-Tech Age: Technology Usage Patterns, Work and Family Correlates, and Gender

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chesley, Noelle

2006-01-01

This study analyzes a couple-level ("N" = 581), longitudinal data set of employees to provide evidence about technology use over time, the factors that predict use, and the potential for a spouse to influence an individual's use. Although longitudinal usage patterns suggest a trend toward adoption and use of e-mail, the Internet, cell phones, and…

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Associations between dietary patterns, physical activity (leisure-time and occupational) and television viewing in middle-aged French adults.

PubMed

Charreire, Hélène; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Bertrais, Sandrine; Simon, Chantal; Chaix, Basile; Weber, Christiane; Touvier, Mathilde; Galan, Pilar; Hercberg, Serge; Oppert, Jean-Michel

2011-03-01

Diet and physical activity are considered to be major components of a healthy lifestyle. However, few studies have examined in detail the relationships between specific types of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and diet in adults. The objective of the present study was to assess differential relationships between dietary patterns, leisure-time and occupational physical activities and time spent watching television (TV), as an indicator of sedentary behaviour, in middle-aged French subjects. We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data from 1359 participants in the SUpplémentation en VItamines et Minéraux AntioXydants study, who completed a detailed physical activity questionnaire and at least six 24 h dietary records. Sex-specific dietary patterns were derived using factor analysis; their relationships with leisure-time and occupational physical activities and TV viewing were assessed using ANCOVA, after adjustment for age, educational level and smoking status. Three dietary patterns were identified in each sex. After adjustment for potential confounders, leisure-time physical activity was positively associated with a 'healthy' food pattern in both men (P for trend < 0·01) and women (P for trend < 0·03) and negatively associated with an 'alcohol/meat' pattern in men (P for trend < 0·01). TV viewing was positively associated with a 'convenience' pattern in men and with a 'alcohol-appetiser' pattern in women. In conclusion, identification of relationships between dietary patterns, physical activity and sedentary behaviour can enable identification of different types of lifestyle and should help to target at-risk groups in nutrition prevention programmes.

Comparing methods of measuring geographic patterns in temporal trends: an application to county-level heart disease mortality in the United States, 1973 to 2010.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Kramer, Michael R; Waller, Lance A; Schieb, Linda J; Greer, Sophia; Casper, Michele

2015-05-01

To demonstrate the implications of choosing analytical methods for quantifying spatiotemporal trends, we compare the assumptions, implementation, and outcomes of popular methods using county-level heart disease mortality in the United States between 1973 and 2010. We applied four regression-based approaches (joinpoint regression, both aspatial and spatial generalized linear mixed models, and Bayesian space-time model) and compared resulting inferences for geographic patterns of local estimates of annual percent change and associated uncertainty. The average local percent change in heart disease mortality from each method was -4.5%, with the Bayesian model having the smallest range of values. The associated uncertainty in percent change differed markedly across the methods, with the Bayesian space-time model producing the narrowest range of variance (0.0-0.8). The geographic pattern of percent change was consistent across methods with smaller declines in the South Central United States and larger declines in the Northeast and Midwest. However, the geographic patterns of uncertainty differed markedly between methods. The similarity of results, including geographic patterns, for magnitude of percent change across these methods validates the underlying spatial pattern of declines in heart disease mortality. However, marked differences in degree of uncertainty indicate that Bayesian modeling offers substantially more precise estimates. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disparity in rainfall trend and patterns among different regions: analysis of 158 years' time series of rainfall dataset across India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Saurav; Chakraborty, Debasish; Paul, Ranjit Kumar; Samanta, Sandipan; Singh, S. B.

2017-10-01

Rainfall anomaly during crop-growing season can have large impact on the agricultural output of a country, especially like India, where two-thirds of the crop land is rain-fed. In such situation, decreased agricultural production not only challenges food security of the country but directly and immediately hits the livelihood of its farming community. In a vast country like India, rainfall or its anomalies hardly follow a specific pattern, rather it is having high variability in spatial domain. This study focused on the trends of national and regional rainfall anomalies (wetness/dryness) along with their interrelationship using time series data of past 158 years. The significant reducing wetness trend (p < 0.05) over north mountainous India was prominent with an increasing trend over southern peninsular India (p < 0.10). However, long-term annual wetness was increasing over entire peninsular India. The results of change point tests indicate that major abrupt changes occurred between early to mid-twentieth century having regional variations. The regional interrelationship was studied using principal component, hierarchical clustering, and pair-wise difference test, which clearly indicated a significantly different pattern in rainfall anomalies for north east India (p = 0.022), north central India (p = 0.022), and north mountainous India (p = 0.011) from that of the all India. Result of this study affirmed high spatial variability in rainfall anomaly and most importantly established the unalike pattern in trends of regional rainfall vis-à-vis national level, ushering towards paradigm shift in rainfall forecast from country scale to regional scale for pragmatic planning.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

A Comparison of Narrative and Expository Text Comprehension for Students at Varying Levels of SES: A Latent Growth Curve Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briggs, Laura Clark

2017-01-01

Research on secondary student reading comprehension performance is scant, yet demands for improved literacy at college and career levels indicate that an understanding of trends and growth patterns is necessary to better inform teaching and learning for high school students. To improve understanding of reading performance at the secondary level,…

Long-term (1930-2010) trends in groundwater levels in Texas: influences of soils, landcover and water use.

PubMed

Chaudhuri, Sriroop; Ale, Srinivasulu

2014-08-15

Rapid groundwater depletion has raised grave concerns about sustainable development in many parts of Texas, as well as in other parts of the world. Previous hydrologic investigations on groundwater levels in Texas were conducted mostly on aquifer-specific basis, and hence lacked state-wide panoramic view. The aim of this study was to present a qualitative overview of long-term (1930-2010) trends in groundwater levels in Texas and identify spatial patterns by applying different statistical (boxplots, correlation-regression, hierarchical cluster analysis) and geospatial techniques (Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association) on 136,930 groundwater level observations from Texas Water Development Board's database. State-wide decadal median water-levels declined from about 14 m from land surface in the 1930s to about 36 m in the 2000s. Number of counties with deeper median water-levels (water-level depth>100 m) increased from 2 to 13 between 1930s and 2000s, accompanied by a decrease in number of counties having shallower median water-levels (water-level depth<25 m) from 134 to 113. Water-level declines across Texas, however, mostly followed logarithmic trends marked by leveling-off phenomena in recent times. Assessment of water-levels by Groundwater Management Areas (GMA), management units created to address groundwater depletion issues, indicated hotspots of deep water-levels in Texas Panhandle and GMA 8 since the 1960s. Contrasting patterns in water use, landcover, geology and soil properties distinguished Texas Panhandle from GMA 8. Irrigated agriculture is the major cause of depletion in the Texas Panhandle as compared to increasing urbanization in GMA 8. Overall our study indicated that use of robust spatial and statistical methods can reveal important details about the trends in water-level changes and shed lights on the associated factors. Due to very generic nature, techniques used in this study can also be applied to other areas with similar eco-hydrologic issues to identify regions that warrant future management actions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tracking contaminants in seabirds of Arctic Canada: temporal and spatial insights.

PubMed

Mallory, Mark L; Braune, Birgit M

2012-07-01

Levels and trends of persistent organic pollutants and trace elements in seabirds breeding in the vast Canadian Arctic have been monitored since 1975. Data from this monitoring have indicated both spatial and temporal variation across the region, attributable in part to differences in species' diets, differences in regional deposition patterns, and unidirectional trends in contaminants reaching this area from emissions in temperate and tropical areas to the south. Seabird tissues have served as effective biomonitors to examine this variation, and national and international collaboration in this monitoring effort has promoted valuable synthetic assessments of spatial and temporal patterns in Arctic contaminants. Here we review the history of the monitoring program, the critical role played by Environment Canada's National Wildlife Specimen Bank, and we summarize important spatial and temporal trends in various contaminants in Canadian Arctic seabirds. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal Trends and Pattern Changes of Short- and Medium-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins in Marine Mammals from the South China Sea over the Past Decade.

PubMed

Zeng, Lixi; Lam, James C W; Wang, Yawei; Jiang, Guibin; Lam, Paul K S

2015-10-06

Temporal trends of short- (SCCPs) and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins (MCCPs) were examined in blubber samples of 50 finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) and 25 Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) collected from the South China Sea between 2004 and 2014. Elevated levels of SCCPs and MCCPs were detected in all blubber samples of both cetacean species. Concentrations of SCCPs ranged from 280 to 3900 ng·g(-1) dry weight (dw) in porpoises and from 430 to 9100 ng·g(-1) dw in dolphins, while concentrations of MCCPs ranged from 320 to 8600 ng·g(-1) dw in porpoises and from 530 to 23 000 ng·g(-1) dw in dolphins. Significantly higher concentrations were present in dolphins than porpoises due to their exposure levels in their living habitats. Strongly linear correlations existed between SCCPs and MCCPs, but there were no significant concentration differences between the genders of the two cetacean species in the same sampling year. Significantly temporal increasing trends of ∑SCCPs and ∑MCCPs have been observed in both porpoise and dolphin samples over the past decade, which reflect the influence of histories of production and usage on the bioaccumulation of CPs in marine mammals in China. An apparent temporal shift trend from SCCPs to MCCPs was also observed in CP accumulation profiles. Complex environmental fractionation from localized sources in the study region via atmospheric transport, oceanic/offshore water transport, and trophic transfer have resulted in different CP accumulation levels and homologue patterns in the two cetacean species. This is the first report of systematic temporal trends of SCCPs and MCCPs in marine mammals.

Comments from the Science Education Directorate, National Science Foundation: CAUSE, ISEP, and LOCI: Three-Program Approach to College-Level Science Improvement. II. Patterns and Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Judith B.; And Others

1980-01-01

Discusses patterns resulting from the monitor of science education proposals which may reflect problems or differing perceptions of NSF. Discusses these areas: proposal submissions from two-year institutions and social and behavioral scientists, trends in project content at the academic-industrial interface and in computer technology, and…

Do Trends in Physical Activity, Sedentary, and Dietary Behaviors Support Trends in Obesity Prevalence in 2 Border Regions in Texas?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ezendam, Nicole P. M.; Springer, Andrew E.; Brug, Johannes; Oenema, Anke; Hoelscher, Deanna H.

2011-01-01

Objective: The aim of the study was to compare the change in energy balance-related behaviors from 2000-2002 to 2004-2005 between 2 Texas regions with distinct patterns in obesity prevalence (decrease in the El Paso region [EP] and leveling off in the Rio Grande Valley region [RGV]) and to determine the role of the behaviors in the difference in…

Trends of VOC exposures among a nationally representative sample: Analysis of the NHANES 1988 through 2004 data sets

PubMed Central

Su, Feng-Chiao; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart

2015-01-01

Exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous due to emissions from personal, commercial and industrial products, but quantitative and representative information regarding long term exposure trends is lacking. This study characterizes trends from1988 to 2004 for the 15 VOCs measured in blood in five cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a large and representative sample of U.S. adults. Trends were evaluated at various percentiles using linear quantile regression (QR) models, which were adjusted for solvent-related occupations and cotinine levels. Most VOCs showed decreasing trends at all quantiles, e.g., median exposures declined by 2.5 (m, p-xylene) to 6.4 (tetrachloroethene) percent per year over the 15 year period. Trends varied by VOC and quantile, and were grouped into three patterns: similar decreases at all quantiles (including benzene, toluene); most rapid decreases at upper quantiles (ethylbenzene, m, p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chloroform, tetrachloroethene); and fastest declines at central quantiles (1,4-dichlorobenzene). These patterns reflect changes in exposure sources, e.g., upper-percentile exposures may result mostly from occupational exposure, while lower percentile exposures arise from general environmental sources. Both VOC emissions aggregated at the national level and VOC concentrations measured in ambient air also have declined substantially over the study period and are supportive of the exposure trends, although the NHANES data suggest the importance of indoor sources and personal activities on VOC exposures. While piecewise QR models suggest that exposures of several VOCs decreased little or any during the 1990’s, followed by more rapid decreases from 1999 to 2004, questions are raised concerning the reliability of VOC data in several of the NHANES cohorts and its applicability as an exposure indicator, as demonstrated by the modest correlation between VOC levels in blood and personal air collected in the 1999/2000 cohort. Despite some limitations, the NHANES data provides a unique, long term and direct measurement of VOC exposures and trends. PMID:25705111

1978 Status Report on Aviation and Space Related High School Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Journal of Aerospace Education, 1978

1978-01-01

Presents a national compilation of statistical data pertaining to secondary level aviation and aerospace education for the 1977-78 school year. Data include trends and patterns of course structure, design, and operation in table form. (SL)

An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993-2008.

PubMed

Amugsi, Dickson A; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Lartey, Anna

2013-10-16

A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country's geographic regions. The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio-demographic segments, including worsening levels of malnutrition. This paper shows the importance of disaggregated analyses of national child malnutrition data, to unmask underlying geographic and socio-demographic differences.

A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified. PMID:29377899

Patterns and trends of chlorinated hydrocarbons in nestling bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) plasma in British Columbia and Southern California.

PubMed

Cesh, Lillian S; Williams, Tony D; Garcelon, David K; Elliott, John E

2008-10-01

Patterns and trends of chlorinated hydrocarbons were assessed in bald eagle nestling plasma from sites along the west coast of North America. Eagle plasma was sampled from four areas in southwestern British Columbia (BC), a reference site in northern BC, and from Santa Catalina Island, off the coast of California. Sites were chosen to reflect variation in contaminant exposure due to differing recent and/or historic anthropogenic activities. Santa Catalina Island had significantly greater mean concentrations of p,p'-DDE, 41.3 microg/kg wet weight (ww), than other sites, and Nanaimo/Crofton, BC had the greatest mean concentration of total PCBs, 28.9 microg/kg ww. Contaminant levels measured in 2003 in BC were compared to levels measured in 1993; over that ten year span, concentrations and patterns of chlorinated hydrocarbons have not significantly changed. There were no significant differences in levels of p,p'-DDE or hexachlorobenzene between 1993 and 2003, but significant decreases were found for trans-nonachlor and PCBs at BC sites. Levels of total PCBs and trans-nonachlor in the central Fraser Valley and Nanaimo/Crofton area have significantly decreased. Mean concentrations of p,p'-DDE measured in bald eagle nestling plasma samples in 2003 exceeded published criteria for effects on bald eagle reproduction at Santa Catalina Island and Barkley Sound, more than 30 years since heavy usage restrictions were imposed.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Great Lakes fish: Levels, patterns, trends and implications for human exposure.

PubMed

Gandhi, Nilima; Gewurtz, Sarah B; Drouillard, Ken G; Kolic, Terry; MacPherson, Karen; Reiner, Eric J; Bhavsar, Satyendra P

2017-01-15

Levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in edible portions of Great Lakes fish, with the goal of examining patterns/trends and evaluating implications for human exposure. A total of 470 fillets of 18 fish species collected from various parts of the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes between 2006 and 2013 were analyzed for 17 (expanded to 33 in 2009) PBDEs. For a limited number of species, fillet to whole body and fillet to eggs PBDEs were compared to examine pattern and concentration among tissue types. Levels and patterns of PBDEs varied dramatically within and among the 18 fish species. Bottom dwelling Common Carp (and White Sucker) exhibited the highest ∑PBDE levels (27-71ng/g). Lake Trout and Lake Whitefish from Lake Superior had higher levels than those from the other Great Lakes; otherwise the spatial trend was Lake Ontario≫Erie~Huron~Superior. The measured levels would result in restriction on consumption of only Common Carp from the Toronto waterfront area, which is in proximity to the most urbanised region on the Canadian side of the basin. Deca-BDE was the major congener in panfish, while BDE-47 was the major congener in top predators and its contribution to ∑PBDE increased with the contamination. Although ∑PBDE was related to fish length and lipid content when all measurements were pooled, the relationships were variable for individual sampling events (species/location/year). Whole body ∑PBDE for bottom dweller Brown Bullhead and Common Carp were 2.6-4.9 times greater and egg ∑PBDE for four fatty Salmon/Trout species were same to 6.5 times greater than the corresponding fillet concentrations. Levels of major lower brominated PBDEs appear to have declined in fish fillets by 46-74% between 2006/07 and 2012. Although PBDE in existing consumer items will remain in-use for a while, it will likely not result in appreciable accumulation of PBDEs in fish. Based on an overall assessment, regular monitoring of PBDEs in Great Lake fish can be replaced with targeted surveillance and focus can be shifted to other in-use flame retardants. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association mining of dependency between time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafez, Alaaeldin

2001-03-01

Time series analysis is considered as a crucial component of strategic control over a broad variety of disciplines in business, science and engineering. Time series data is a sequence of observations collected over intervals of time. Each time series describes a phenomenon as a function of time. Analysis on time series data includes discovering trends (or patterns) in a time series sequence. In the last few years, data mining has emerged and been recognized as a new technology for data analysis. Data Mining is the process of discovering potentially valuable patterns, associations, trends, sequences and dependencies in data. Data mining techniques can discover information that many traditional business analysis and statistical techniques fail to deliver. In this paper, we adapt and innovate data mining techniques to analyze time series data. By using data mining techniques, maximal frequent patterns are discovered and used in predicting future sequences or trends, where trends describe the behavior of a sequence. In order to include different types of time series (e.g. irregular and non- systematic), we consider past frequent patterns of the same time sequences (local patterns) and of other dependent time sequences (global patterns). We use the word 'dependent' instead of the word 'similar' for emphasis on real life time series where two time series sequences could be completely different (in values, shapes, etc.), but they still react to the same conditions in a dependent way. In this paper, we propose the Dependence Mining Technique that could be used in predicting time series sequences. The proposed technique consists of three phases: (a) for all time series sequences, generate their trend sequences, (b) discover maximal frequent trend patterns, generate pattern vectors (to keep information of frequent trend patterns), use trend pattern vectors to predict future time series sequences.

[Ecological risk assessment of rural-urban ecotone based on landscape pattern: A case study in Daiyue District of Tai' an City, Shandong Province of East China].

PubMed

Shi, Hao-Peng; Yu, Kai-Qin; Feng, Yong-jun

2013-03-01

Based on the remote sensing data in 2000, 2005, and 2010, this paper analyzed the variation trends of the land use type and landscape pattern in Daiyue District of Tai' an City from 2000 to 2010. The ecological risk index was built, that of the District was re-sampled and spatially interpolated, and the spatiotemporal pattern of the ecological risk in the rural-urban ecotone of the District was analyzed. In 2000-2010, the main variation trend of the land use type in the District was the shift from natural landscape to artificial landscape. The intensity of human disturbance was larger in cultivated land, garden plot, and forestland than in other landscape types, while the human disturbance in water area was smaller. The ecological loss degree of cultivated land and water area decreased somewhat, while that of the other land use types presented an increasing trend. The ecological risk distribution in the District was discrete in 2000 and 2010, but most centralized in 2005. The ecological risk of each ecological risk sub-area had an increasing trend in 2000-2005, but was in adverse in 2005-2010. In 2000-2010, the ecological risk of the District was mainly at medium level. Spatially, the distribution of the ecological risk in the District had an obvious differentiation, with an overall diffusive increasing from forestland as the center to the surrounding areas. In the District, the ecological risk was mainly at medium and higher levels, the area with lower ecological risk had an obvious dynamic change, while that with the lowest and highest ecological risk had less change.

Horseshoe crab spawning activity in Delaware Bay, USA, after harvest reduction: A mixed-model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; Robinson, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

A Delaware Bay, USA, standardized survey of spawning horseshoe crabs, Limulus polyphemus, was carried out in 1999 − 2013 through a citizen science network. Previous trend analyses of the data were at the state (DE or NJ) or bay-wide levels. Here, an alternative mixed-model regression analysis was used to estimate trends in female and male spawning densities at the beach level (n = 26) with the objective of inferring their causes. For females, there was no overall trend and no single explanation applies to the temporal and spatial patterns in their densities. Individual beaches that initially had higher densities tended to experience a decrease, while beaches that initially had lower densities tended to experience an increase. As a result, densities of spawning females at the end of the study period were relatively similar among beaches, suggesting a redistribution of females among the beaches over the study period. For males, there was a positive overall trend in spawning abundance from 1999 to 2013, and this increase occurred broadly among beaches. Moreover, the beaches with below-average initial male density tended to have the greatest increases. Possible explanations for these patterns include harvest reduction, sampling artifact, habitat change, density-dependent habitat selection, or mate selection. The broad and significant increase in male spawning density, which occurred after enactment of harvest controls, is consistent with the harvest reduction explanation, but there is no single explanation for the temporal or spatial pattern in female densities. These results highlight the continued value of a citizen-science-based spawning survey in understanding horseshoe crab ecology and conservation.

Influence of a priori profiles on trend calculations from Umkehr data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateer, C. L.; Dütsch, H. U.; Staehelin, J.; Deluisi, J. J.

1996-07-01

Although the new (1992) ozone profile retrieval algorithm for Umkehr measurements provides much better agreement with ozone sounding results than the old (1964) algorithm, considerable discrepancies remain with respect to ozone trends at different levels in the atmosphere. These discrepancies have been found by the comparison of long-term trends obtained from the Umkehr measurements at Arosa and the ozone balloon soundings at Payerne (Switzerland). It is investigated here whether these obvious discrepancies can be removed by using time-dependent a priori profiles. This procedure is successful only in the lowest part of the atmosphere, below about 19 km. To further explore this problem, synthetic Umkehr observations are calculated from the ozonesonde profiles. Trends are calculated for both the synthetic and actual Umkehr observations. The difference pattern between these Umkehr observation trends is compared with the difference in ozone profile retrieval trends from the synthetic and actual observations. The distinctive difference patterns strongly indicate an inherent disagreement between the Umkehr observations and the ozonesonde profiles. The application of corrections for stratospheric aerosol effects to the Umkehr profiles reduces, but does not eliminate, a discrepancy above 32 km. It is concluded that the discrepancies are due to the constant mixing ratio assumption used in computing the residual ozone above balloon burst level and to the fair-weather bias of Umkehr observations (there are Umkehr observations at Arosa on fewer than 20% of the sonde observation days at Payerne). This sampling difference influences the results for the lower stratosphere. The study furthermore indicates that the ozone trends derived from Umkehr measurements for altitudes above about 32 km are robust for time-dependent changes in the a priori profiles at lower altitudes. Based on the results of this study, we conclude with revised recommendations as to which atmospheric layers should be used for Umkehr trend studies.

Patterns and Trends in UK Higher Education 2016

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Universities UK, 2016

2016-01-01

This report provides an interim update to the Universities UK "Patterns" series, before the publication of the full "Patterns and Trends" publication in spring 2017. It includes updates of the main charts included in the 2015 publication, covering trends in student and staff numbers and finances of the UK higher education…

Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-11

including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

Patterns in Greater Sage-grouse population dynamics correspond with public grazing records at broad scales.

PubMed

Monroe, Adrian P; Aldridge, Cameron L; Assal, Timothy J; Veblen, Kari E; Pyke, David A; Casazza, Michael L

2017-06-01

Human land use, such as livestock grazing, can have profound yet varied effects on wildlife interacting within common ecosystems, yet our understanding of land-use effects is often generalized from short-term, local studies that may not correspond with trends at broader scales. Here we used public land records to characterize livestock grazing across Wyoming, USA, and we used Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) as a model organism to evaluate responses to livestock management. With annual counts of male Sage-grouse from 743 leks (breeding display sites) during 2004-2014, we modeled population trends in response to grazing level (represented by a relative grazing index) and timing across a gradient in vegetation productivity as measured by the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI). We found grazing can have both positive and negative effects on Sage-grouse populations depending on the timing and level of grazing. Sage-grouse populations responded positively to higher grazing levels after peak vegetation productivity, but populations declined when similar grazing levels occurred earlier, likely reflecting the sensitivity of cool-season grasses to grazing during peak growth periods. We also found support for the hypothesis that effects of grazing management vary with local vegetation productivity. These results illustrate the importance of broad-scale analyses by revealing patterns in Sage-grouse population trends that may not be inferred from studies at finer scales, and could inform sustainable grazing management in these ecosystems. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Patterns in Greater Sage-grouse population dynamics correspond with public grazing records at broad scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Adrian; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Assal, Timothy J.; Veblen, Kari E.; Pyke, David A.; Casazza, Michael L.

2017-01-01

Human land use, such as livestock grazing, can have profound yet varied effects on wildlife interacting within common ecosystems, yet our understanding of land-use effects is often generalized from short-term, local studies that may not correspond with trends at broader scales. Here we used public land records to characterize livestock grazing across Wyoming, USA, and we used Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) as a model organism to evaluate responses to livestock management. With annual counts of male Sage-grouse from 743 leks (breeding display sites) during 2004–2014, we modeled population trends in response to grazing level (represented by a relative grazing index) and timing across a gradient in vegetation productivity as measured by the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI). We found grazing can have both positive and negative effects on Sage-grouse populations depending on the timing and level of grazing. Sage-grouse populations responded positively to higher grazing levels after peak vegetation productivity, but populations declined when similar grazing levels occurred earlier, likely reflecting the sensitivity of cool-season grasses to grazing during peak growth periods. We also found support for the hypothesis that effects of grazing management vary with local vegetation productivity. These results illustrate the importance of broad-scale analyses by revealing patterns in Sage-grouse population trends that may not be inferred from studies at finer scales, and could inform sustainable grazing management in these ecosystems.

Level, trends and differentials of infant and child mortality in Yemen.

PubMed

Suchindran, C M; Adlakha, A L

1985-12-01

This study investigates the levels, trends and differentials of infant and child mortality in Yemen. The data used are from the 1979 Yemen Fertility Survey, part of the World Fertility Survey. Mortality rates for 4 age intervals of life are presented: neonatal, postnatal, infant and child. For the birth cohort immediately preceding the survey (1976 1978), the level of infant mortality was estimated as 157/1000 for both sexes and 163 for males and 145 for females. For the birth cohort 1971 1975, the level of child mortality was 95/1000 for both sexes, 78 for males and 112 for females. Analysis of time trends in mortality for the years from 1961 to 1978 indicated substantial declines in neonatal, postneonatal, infant and child mortality. Neonatal mortality declined by almost 33%, and postneonatal mortality by almost 43%. During 1961-1975, child mortality declined by about 39%. A persistent pattern of mortality differentials by sex was found in the data. For all birth cohorts between 1961 and 1978, male neonatal and postneonatal mortality exceeded female neonatal mortality, but male childhood mortality was less than corresponding female mortality. This pattern suggests preferential care and treatment of male offspring. Estimates of infant and child mortality showed considerable regional differences. The eastern region experienced considerably lower risk of infant and childhood mortality than other regions. Breastfeeders aged 1-5 experienced lower mortality rates than nonbreastfeeders. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression model show the net effect of demographic and socioeconomic factors on mortality.

Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

Enrollments in Schools and Colleges of Pharmacy, 1986-1987.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penna, Richard P.; Sherman, Michael S.

1987-01-01

National survey data on pharmaceutical education enrollment rates and trends at all degree levels include information on full- and part-time enrollments, student gender and ethnic characteristics, patterns of specialization, sources of previous degrees, student country of origin, and fellowships. (MSE)

Global and regional variability and change in terrestrial ecosystems net primary production and NDVI: A model-data comparison

DOE PAGES

Rafique, Rashid; Zhao, Fang; de Jong, Rogier; ...

2016-02-25

The net primary productivity (NPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in carbon cycle. We used a combination of the most recent NDVI and model–based NPP estimates (from five models of the TRENDY project) for the period 1982-2012, to study the role of terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle under the prevailing climate conditions. We found that 80% and 67% of the global land area showed positive NPP and NDVI values, respectively, for this period. The global NPP was estimated to be about 63 Pg C y -1, with an increase of 0.214 Pgmore » C y -1 y -1. Similarly, the global mean NDVI was estimated to be 0.33, with an increasing trend of 0.00041 y-1. The spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI demonstrated substantial variability, especially at the regional level, for most part of the globe. However, on temporal scale, both global NPP and NDVI showed a corresponding pattern of increase (decrease) for the duration of this study except for few years (e.g. 1990 and 1995-98). Generally, the Northern Hemisphere showed stronger NDVI and NPP increasing trends over time compared to the Southern Hemisphere; however, NDVI showed larger trends in Temperate regions while NPP showed larger trends in Boreal regions. Among the five models, the maximum and minimum NPP were produced by JULES (72.4 Pg C y -1) and LPJ (53.72 Pg C y -1) models, respectively. At latitudinal level, the NDVI and NPP ranges were ~0.035 y -1 to ~-0.016 y -1 and ~0.10 Pg C y -1 y -1 to ~-0.047 Pg C y -1 y -1, respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the modeled NPP generally correspond to the NDVI trends in the temporal dimension. Lastly, the significant variability in spatial patterns of NPP and NDVI trends points to a need for research to understand the causes of these discrepancies between molded and observed ecosystem dynamics, and the carbon cycle.« less

Evaluation of CLM4 Solar Radiation Partitioning Scheme Using Remote Sensing and Site Level FPAR Datasets

DOE PAGES

Wang, Kai; Mao, Jiafu; Dickinson, Robert; ...

2013-06-05

This paper examines a land surface solar radiation partitioning scheme, i.e., that of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles. Taking advantage of a unique 30-year fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) dataset derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set, multiple other remote sensing datasets, and site level observations, we evaluated the CLM4 FPAR ’s seasonal cycle, diurnal cycle, long-term trends and spatial patterns. These findings show that the model generally agrees with observations in the seasonal cycle, long-term trends, and spatial patterns,more » but does not reproduce the diurnal cycle. Discrepancies also exist in seasonality magnitudes, peak value months, and spatial heterogeneity. Here, we identify the discrepancy in the diurnal cycle as, due to, the absence of dependence on sun angle in the model. Implementation of sun angle dependence in a one-dimensional (1-D) model is proposed. The need for better relating of vegetation to climate in the model, indicated by long-term trends, is also noted. Evaluation of the CLM4 land surface solar radiation partitioning scheme using remote sensing and site level FPAR datasets provides targets for future development in its representation of this naturally complicated process.« less

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-12-01

Extreme cyclone events often occur during Arctic winters, and are of concern as they transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, which is associated with mixed-phase clouds and increased longwave downward radiation, and can cause temperatures to rise above freezing resulting in wintertime sea-ice melting or retarded sea-ice growth. With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny-Ålesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by an extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny-Ålesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data). Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called `weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade, according to the Ny-Ålesund data. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones drive considerable warming in that region, consistent with the observed significant winter warming of 3 K/decade. The positive winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as "blocking-like" circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Gender Segregation within Different Educational Levels: Austrian and Finnish Trends in the Light of Educational Reform, 1981-2005

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prix, Irene

2012-01-01

Within most educational systems, men and women tend to specialize in different fields of study. Comparing Austria and Finland, this article traces the extent and patterns of gender segregation within different educational levels between 1981 and 2005. Relying on official enrollment figures, a logarithmic index is used to measure overall and…

Education Pays 2016: The Benefits of Higher Education for Individuals and Society. Trends in Higher Education Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ma, Jennifer; Pender, Matea; Welch, Meredith

2016-01-01

This report documents differences in the earnings and employment patterns of U.S. adults with different levels of education. It also compares health-related behaviors, reliance on public assistance programs, civic participation, and indicators of the well-being of the next generation. In addition to reporting median earnings by education level,…

Survey of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and non-orthopolychlorinated biphenyls in U.S. meat and poultry from 2012-2013: Toxic equivalency levels, patterns, temporal trends, and implication

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) conducts a statistically-based survey of the domestic meat supply (beef, pork, chicken, and turkey) to determine current levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and non-ortho-polychlorinated biphenyls (no-P...

Teacher-Directed Student Use of Technology and Mathematics Achievement: Examining Trends in International Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Yang; O'Dwyer, Laura

2011-01-01

Using data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2003 and 2007 administrations, this study examines international trends in technology use and explores the international patterns in how teacher-directed, student-use of technology is related to eighth grade mathematics achievement. Descriptive patterns in…

Trends of chlorinated organic contaminants in Great Lakes trout and walleye from 1970-1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickey, J.P.; Batterman, S.A.; Chernyak, S.M.

2006-01-01

Levels of chlorinated organic contaminants in predator fish have been monitored annually in each of the Great Lakes since the 1970s. This article updates earlier reports with data from 1991 to 1998 for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and (Lake Erie only) walleye (Sander vitreus) to provide a record that now extends nearly 30 years. Whole fish were analyzed for a number of industrial contaminants and pesticides, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT), dieldrin, toxaphene, and mirex, and contaminant trends were quantified using multicompartment models. As in the past, fish from Lakes Michigan, Ontario, and Huron have the highest levels of PCBs, DDT, and dieldrin; Superior has the highest levels of toxaphene; and Ontario has the highest levels of mirex. In the period after curtailment of chemical use, concentrations rapidly decreased, represented by relatively short half-lives from approximately 1 to 9 years. Although trends depend on both the contaminant and the lake, in many cases the rate of decline has been decreasing, and concentrations are gradually approaching an irreducible concentration. For dioxin-like PCBs, levels have not been decreasing during the most recent 5-year period (1994 to 1998). In some cases, the year-to-year variation in contaminant levels is large, mainly because of food-web dynamics. Although this variation sometimes obscures long-term trends, the general pattern of a rapid decrease followed by slowing or leveling-off of the downward trend seems consistent across the Great Lakes, and future improvements of the magnitude seen in the 1970s and early 1980s likely will take much longer.

SWH trends and links to large scale teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Pino, C.; Galati, M. B.

2010-09-01

This study analyzes the SWH field in the Mediterranean Sea using a multidecadal simulations (1958-2001) carried out using the WAM (WAve Model) forced by the REMO-HIPOCAS wind fields. The simulations are validated against satellite altimeter data. Several mid-latitude patterns are linked to the SWH field in the Mediterranean. Considering the mean monthly SWH values, EA (Eastern Atlantic pattern) exerts the largest influence, while NAO and other patterns have a smaller but comparable effect. Severe SWH conditions have been characterized using the 95percentile of daily SWH maxima. NAO is important mainly for high SWH conditions in winter with significant correlation in December, January and March, but also EA, SCA (SCAndinavian) and EA-WR (Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia) play an important role. In general, both SWH high and mean values are modulated by several patterns, with an important variability in space and at monthly level so that no single pattern can be attributed a dominant role along the whole annual cycle and all the mentioned patterns are important for at least few months in the year. Significant trends of SWH are present only in sparse areas and suggest mostly a minor decrease of storm intensity, The statistics of extremes and high SWH values is substantially steady during the second half of the 20th century.

A Cross-Regional Comparison of Recreation

Treesearch

Chieh-Lu Li; Harry C. Zinn; Susan C. Barro; Michael J. Manfredo

2003-01-01

We studied outdoor recreation patterns among older hunting license holders in Pennsylvania and Colorado to better understand aspects of five trends that promise to impact outdoor recreation preferences, behavior, and management priorities: Sunbelt population growth, declining residential stability, urbanization, aging, and increasing levels of formal education. Results...

Temporal variability of selected air toxics in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, Michael C.; Hafner, Hilary R.; Chinkin, Lyle R.; Charrier, Jessica G.

Ambient measurements of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs, air toxics) collected in the United States from 1990 to 2005 were analyzed for diurnal, seasonal, and/or annual variability and trends. Visual and statistical analyses were used to identify and quantify temporal variations in air toxics at national and regional levels. Sufficient data were available to analyze diurnal variability for 14 air toxics, seasonal variability for 24 air toxics, and annual trends for 26 air toxics. Four diurnal variation patterns were identified and labeled invariant, nighttime peak, morning peak, and daytime peak. Three distinct seasonal patterns were identified and labeled invariant, cool, and warm. Multiple air toxics showed consistent decreasing trends over three trend periods, 1990-2005, 1995-2005, and 2000-2005. Trends appeared to be relatively consistent within chemically similar pollutant groups. Hydrocarbons such as benzene, 1,3-butadiene, styrene, xylene, and toluene decreased by approximately 5% or more per year at more than half of all monitoring sites. Concentrations of carbonyl compounds such as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and propionaldehyde were equally likely to have increased or decreased at monitoring sites. Chlorinated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as tetrachloroethylene, dichloromethane, and methyl chloroform decreased at more than half of all monitoring sites, but decreases among these species were much more variable than among the hydrocarbons. Lead particles decreased in concentration at most monitoring sites, but trends in other metals were not consistent over time.

Multi-segmental movement patterns reflect juggling complexity and skill level.

PubMed

Zago, Matteo; Pacifici, Ilaria; Lovecchio, Nicola; Galli, Manuela; Federolf, Peter Andreas; Sforza, Chiarella

2017-08-01

The juggling action of six experts and six intermediates jugglers was recorded with a motion capture system and decomposed into its fundamental components through Principal Component Analysis. The aim was to quantify trends in movement dimensionality, multi-segmental patterns and rhythmicity as a function of proficiency level and task complexity. Dimensionality was quantified in terms of Residual Variance, while the Relative Amplitude was introduced to account for individual differences in movement components. We observed that: experience-related modifications in multi-segmental actions exist, such as the progressive reduction of error-correction movements, especially in complex task condition. The systematic identification of motor patterns sensitive to the acquisition of specific experience could accelerate the learning process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993–2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country’s geographic regions. Methods The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. Results The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. Conclusions At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio-demographic segments, including worsening levels of malnutrition. This paper shows the importance of disaggregated analyses of national child malnutrition data, to unmask underlying geographic and socio-demographic differences. PMID:24131558

Distal turbidite fan/lobe succession of the Late Oligocene Zuberec Fm. - architecture and hierarchy (Central Western Carpathians, Orava-Podhale basin)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starek, Dušan; Fuksi, Tomáš

2017-08-01

A part of the Upper Oligocene sand-rich turbidite systems of the Central Carpathian Basin is represented by the Zuberec Formation. Sand/mud-mixed deposits of this formation are well exposed in the northern part of the basin, allowing us to interpret the turbidite succession as terminal lobe deposits of a submarine fan. This interpretation is based on the discrimination of three facies associations that are comparable to different components of distributive lobe deposits in deep-water fan systems. They correspond to the lobe off-axis, lobe fringe and lobe distal fringe depositional subenvironments, respectively. The inferences about the depositional paleoenvironment based on sedimentological observations are verified by statistical analyses. The bed-thickness frequency distributions and vertical organization of the facies associations show cyclic trends at different hierarchical levels that enable us to reconstruct architectural elements of a turbidite fan. First, small-scale trends correspond with shift in the lobe element centroid between successive elements. Differences in the distribution and frequency of sandstone bed thicknesses as well as differences in the shape of bed-thickness frequency distributions between individual facies associations reflect a gradual fining and thinning in a down-dip direction. Second, meso-scale trends are identified within lobes and they generally correspond to the significant periodicity identified by the time series analysis of the bed thicknesses. The meso-scale trends demonstrate shifts in the position of the lobe centroid within the lobe system. Both types of trends have a character of a compensational stacking pattern and could be linked to autogenic processes. Third, a largescale trend documented by generally thickening-upward stacking pattern of beds, accompanied by a general increase of the sandstones/mudstones ratio and by a gradual change of percentage of individual facies, could be comparable to lobe-system scale. This trend probably indicates a gradual basinward progradation of lobe system controlled by allogenic processes related to tectonic activity of sources and sea-level fluctuations.

Patterns of multi-drug resistant bacteria at first culture from patients admitted to a third level University hospital in Calabria from 2011 to 2014: implications for empirical therapy and infection control.

PubMed

Reale, Mariaconcetta; Strazzulla, Alessio; Quirino, Angela; Rizzo, Claudia; Marano, Vito; Postorino, Maria Concetta; Mazzitelli, Maria; Greco, Giuseppe; Pisani, Vincenzo; Costa, Chiara; Cesana, Bruno Mario; Liberto, Maria Carla; Torti, Carlo; Focà, Alfredo

2017-06-01

Surveillance of antimicrobial drug resistance is fundamental to guide empirical treatment. However, the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network provides a general picture, which might not be applicable to clinical settings that are excluded from this survey. We evaluated resistance patterns of ESKAPE isolates over a four-year period in a third level University hospital in the province of Catanzaro (Southern Italy). In this retrospective study, we evaluated the frequency of ESKAPE isolates with different resistance patterns (group 1=low-resistant bacteria; group 2=multi-drug and extremely drug-resistant bacteria; group 3=pan-resistant bacteria), stratified by year (2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014), hospital units (intensive care units, medical and surgical units) and by sample type (urine, blood, wound swabs, respiratory samples, other samples). Chi square test was applied to find differences between isolates with different resistance patterns by hospital unit and by organs and systems. Cochran-Armitage trend test was applied to assess the trend in resistance patterns during the four years analyzed. Amongst 2385 isolates, Escherichia coli (38%) was the most frequent, followed by Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (14%), Staphylococcus aureus (13%), Acinetobacter baumannii (9%), Enterococcus faecalis (8%) and Enterococcus faecium (3%). From 2011 to 2014, frequency of isolates in group 2 plus 3 decreased from 23% to 14% (chi square=55.093; p<0.0001), particularly for E. coli and K. pneumoniae, but the trend increased for S. aureus (from 5% in 2011 to 10% in 2014), and remained stable for the other species. Frequency of isolates in group 2 plus 3 was higher in intensive care units for K. pneumoniae (chi square =32.292; p<0.0001), A. baumannii (chi square =6.947; p<0.0001) and S. aureus (chi square =22.079; p<0.0001). It was also higher from blood than from different sources for most species.

Half a century of changing mercury levels in Swedish freshwater fish.

PubMed

Akerblom, Staffan; Bignert, Anders; Meili, Markus; Sonesten, Lars; Sundbom, Marcus

2014-01-01

The variability of mercury (Hg) levels in Swedish freshwater fish during almost 50 years was assessed based on a compilation of 44 927 observations from 2881 waters. To obtain comparable values, individual Hg concentrations of fish from any species and of any size were normalized to correspond to a standard 1-kg pike [median: 0.69 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight (ww), mean ± SD: 0.84 ± 0.67 mg kg⁻¹ ww]. The EU Environmental Quality Standard of 0.02 mg kg⁻¹ was exceeded in all waters, while the guideline set by FAO/WHO for Hg levels in fish used for human consumption (0.5-1.0 mg kg⁻¹) was exceeded in 52.5 % of Swedish waters after 2000. Different trend analysis approaches indicated an overall long-term decline of at least 20 % during 1965-2012 but trends did not follow any consistent regional pattern. During the latest decade (2003-2012), however, a spatial gradient has emerged with decreasing trends predominating in southwestern Sweden.

Detecting trends in landscape pattern metrics over a 20-year period using a sampling-based monitoring programme

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, J.A.; Stehman, S.V.; Sohl, Terry L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2003-01-01

Temporal trends in landscape pattern metrics describing texture, patch shape and patch size were evaluated in the US Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain Ecoregion. The landscape pattern metrics were calculated for a sample of land use/cover data obtained for four points in time from 1973-1992. The multiple sampling dates permit evaluation of trend, whereas availability of only two sampling dates allows only evaluation of change. Observed statistically significant trends in the landscape pattern metrics demonstrated that the sampling-based monitoring protocol was able to detect a trend toward a more fine-grained landscape in this ecoregion. This sampling and analysis protocol is being extended spatially to the remaining 83 ecoregions in the US and temporally to the year 2000 to provide a national and regional synthesis of the temporal and spatial dynamics of landscape pattern covering the period 1973-2000.

Googling trends in conservation biology.

PubMed

Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

2014-02-01

Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Patterns and Sources of Continuity and Change of Energetic and Temporal Aspects of Temperament in Adulthood: A Longitudinal Twin Study of Self- and Peer Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kandler, Christian; Riemann, Rainer; Angleitner, Alois

2013-01-01

This study investigated the mean-level and individual-level trends as well as the genetic and environmental sources of rank-order continuity and change in temperament traits ("Briskness, Perseveration, Sensory Sensitivity, Emotional Reactivity, Endurance, and Activity"). We analyzed self-reports and peer ratings from 2 adult age groups…

Hydrologic factors affecting lake-level fluctuations in the Big Marine Lake, Washington County, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, R.G.

1985-01-01

Long-term trends in cumulative departure from mean annual precipitation suggest that recharge to the drift aquifer in the area has been increasing since the 1940's. The increase in precipitation and recharge corresponds to the observed rise in lake level since 1965 when regular lake-level measurements began. Fluctuations in lake level in the future will depend on changes in recharge to the drift and bedrock aquifers, which is directly related to changes in long-term precipitation patterns.

Health sector reform and trends in the United Kingdom hospital workforce.

PubMed

Buchan, J; Hancock, C; Rafferty, A M

1997-10-01

The authors examine changing trends in the profile and patterns of employment of the workforce in hospitals in the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom. The effect of the implementation of the NHS reforms is considered, with particular reference to the changing composition of the nursing workforce. The authors note that there are problems with establishing trend data because of altered information requirements as a result of the NHS reforms. Analysis and review of data from secondary sources and research publications. Although hospital activity rates have grown, patient length of hospital stays decreased, and patient activity levels increased, there has not been a linked growth in the size of the nursing workforce. The main changes in the profile of the nursing workforce highlighted are a marked reduction in the numbers of nursing students and alterations in the skill mix between first- and second-level qualified nurses. The authors also note a large increase in the number of managerial and administrative staff employed and growth in medical staff numbers. Changes in working patterns and increases in contracting for support services and in the use of temporary staff also are discussed. There have been pronounced changes in the profile of the hospital workforce but little evaluation of the impact of these changes on outcomes of care.

Trends and threshold exceedances analysis of airborne pollen concentrations in Metropolitan Santiago Chile

PubMed Central

Toro A., Richard; Córdova J., Alicia; Canales, Mauricio; Morales S., Raul G. E.; Mardones P., Pedro; Leiva G., Manuel A.

2015-01-01

Pollen is one of the primary causes of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in urban centers. In the present study, the concentrations of 39 different pollens in the Santiago de Chile metropolitan area over the period 2009–2013 are characterized. The pollen was monitored daily using Burkard volumetric equipment. The contribution of each type of pollen and the corresponding time trends are evaluated. The concentrations of the pollens are compared with the established threshold levels for the protection of human health. The results show that the total amount of pollen grains originating from trees, grasses, weeds and indeterminate sources throughout the period of the study was 258,496 grains m-3, with an annual average of 51,699 ± 3,906 grains m-3 year-1. The primary source of pollen is Platanus orientalis, which produces 61.8% of the analyzed pollen. Grass pollen is the third primary component of the analyzed pollen, with a contribution of 5.82%. Among the weeds, the presence of Urticacea (3.74%) is remarkable. The pollination pattern of the trees is monophasic, and the grasses have a biphasic pattern. The trends indicate that the total pollen and tree pollen do not present a time trend that is statistically significant throughout the period of the study, whereas the grass pollen and weed pollen concentrations in the environment present a statistically significant decreasing trend. The cause of this decrease is unclear. The pollen load has doubled over the past decade. When the observed concentrations of the pollens were compared with the corresponding threshold levels, the results indicated that over the period of the study, the pollen concentrations were at moderate, high and very high levels for an average of 293 days per year. Systematic counts of the pollen grains are an essential method for diagnosing and treating patients with pollinosis and for developing forestation and urban planning strategies. PMID:25946339

Multiscale modeling of multi-decadal trends in air pollutant concentrations and their radiative properties: the role of models in an integrated observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Szykman, J.; Gan, C. M.; Hogrefe, C.; Pleim, J. E.

2015-12-01

Air Pollution simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions across varying space and time scales. Setting and attaining lower ambient air quality standards requires an improved understanding and quantification of source attribution amongst the multiple anthropogenic and natural sources, on time scales ranging from episodic to annual and spatial scales ranging from urban to continental. Changing emission patterns over the developing regions of the world are likely to exacerbate the impacts of long-range pollutant transport on background pollutant levels, which may then impact the attainment of local air quality standards. Thus, strategies for reduction of pollution levels of surface air over a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Additionally, as short-lived climate forcers, aerosols and ozone exert regionally heterogeneous radiative forcing and influence regional climate trends. EPA's coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system is applied over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere for the period spanning 1990-2010. This period has witnessed significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions in North America and Europe as a result of implementation of control measures and dramatic increases across Asia associated with economic and population growth, resulting in contrasting trends in air pollutant distributions and transport patterns across the northern hemisphere. Model results (trends in pollutant concentrations, optical and radiative characteristics) across the northern hemisphere are analyzed in conjunction with surface, aloft and remote sensing measurements to contrast the differing trends in air pollution and aerosol-radiation interactions in these regions over the past two decades. Given the future LEO (TropOMI) and GEO (Sentinel-4, GEMS, and TEMPO) atmospheric chemistry satellite observing capabilities, the results from these model applications will be discussed in the context of how the new satellite observations could help constrain and reduce uncertainties in the models.

Patterns and drivers of daily bed-level dynamics on two tidal flats with contrasting wave exposure.

PubMed

Hu, Zhan; Yao, Peng; van der Wal, Daphne; Bouma, Tjeerd J

2017-08-02

Short-term bed-level dynamics has been identified as one of the main factors affecting biota establishment or retreat on tidal flats. However, due to a lack of proper instruments and intensive labour involved, the pattern and drivers of daily bed-level dynamics are largely unexplored in a spatiotemporal context. In this study, 12 newly-developed automatic bed-level sensors were deployed for nearly 15 months on two tidal flats with contrasting wave exposure, proving an unique dataset of daily bed-level changes and hydrodynamic forcing. By analysing the data, we show that (1) a general steepening trend exists on both tidal flats, even with contrasting wave exposure and different bed sediment grain size; (2) daily morphodynamics level increases towards the sea; (3) tidal forcing sets the general morphological evolution pattern at both sites; (4) wave forcing induces short-term bed-level fluctuations at the wave-exposed site, but similar effect is not seen at the sheltered site with smaller waves; (5) storms provoke aggravated erosion, but the impact is conditioned by tidal levels. This study provides insights in the pattern and drivers of daily intertidal bed-level dynamics, thereby setting a template for future high-resolution field monitoring programmes and inviting in-depth morphodynamic modelling for improved understanding and predictive capability.

Physical activity and screen time: trends in U.S. children aged 9-13 years, 2002-2006.

PubMed

Huhman, Marian; Lowry, Richard; Lee, Sarah M; Fulton, Janet E; Carlson, Susan A; Patnode, Carrie D

2012-05-01

We examined trends of physical activity and screen time among nationally representative samples of children aged 9-13 years to explore whether children overall are becoming less physically active and less likely to be in compliance with screen time recommendations. We analyzed Youth Media Campaign Longitudinal Survey data for trends and demographic patterns of free time and organized physical activity, and hours and minutes of watching television and playing video or computer games. Child-parent dyads for 2002 (N = 3114), 2004 (N = 5177), and 2006 (N = 1200) were analyzed. On the day before the interview, and for free time physical activity in the past week, children reported a significant increase in physical activity from 2002-2006. Screen time levels were stable overall; 76.4% of children met the recommendations of 2 hours or less of daily screen time. Levels of physical activity among U.S. children aged 9-13 years were stable, or levels slightly improved from 2002-2006. Except for some subgroup differences, trends for compliance with screen time recommendations were also stable from 2002-2006 for U.S. children aged 9-13 years.

Twenty-year trends in dietary patterns in French-speaking Switzerland: toward healthier eating.

PubMed

Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel; Theler, Jean-Marc; Guessous, Idris

2017-07-01

Background: Dietary patterns provide a summary of dietary intake, but to our knowledge, few studies have assessed trends in dietary patterns in the population. Objective: The aim was to assess 20-y trends in dietary patterns in a representative sample of the Geneva, Switzerland, population with the consideration of age, sex, education, and generation. Design: Repeated, independent cross-sectional studies were conducted between 1993 and 2014. Dietary intake was assessed by using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Dietary patterns were assessed by using principal components analyses. Results: Among 18,763 adults, 1 healthy ("fish and vegetables") and 2 unhealthy ("meat and chips" and "chocolate and sweets") patterns were identified. Scores for the "fish and vegetables" pattern increased, whereas the "meat and chips" and "chocolate and sweets" pattern scores decreased in both sexes and across all age groups. The stronger increase in the "fish and vegetables" pattern score among the less well-educated participants led to a narrowing of educational differences (mean ± SD scores in 1993: -0.56 ± 1.39 compared with -0.05 ± 1.58 in low- compared with highly educated groups, respectively; P < 0.001; scores in 2014: 0.28 ± 1.64 compared with 0.24 ± 1.83, respectively; P = 0.772). Generational analysis showed that older age groups tended to show smaller changes than younger age groups: the yearly score change in "chocolate and sweets" was -0.021 (95% CI: -0.027, -0.014; P < 0.001) for the 35- to 44-y cohort compared with -0.002 (95% CI: -0.009, 0.005; P = 0.546) for the 45- to 54-y cohort. Conclusions: Three dietary patterns were identified; scores for the "fish and vegetables" pattern increased, whereas the "meat and chips" and the "chocolate and sweets" pattern scores decreased. The stronger increases in the "fish and vegetables" pattern score among the less well-educated participants led to a smaller difference in dietary intake across the different educational levels. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Contrasting patterns of X/Y polymorphism distinguish Carica papaya from other sex chromosome systems.

PubMed

Weingartner, Laura A; Moore, Richard C

2012-12-01

The sex chromosomes of the tropical crop papaya (Carica papaya) are evolutionarily young and consequently allow for the examination of evolutionary mechanisms that drive early sex chromosome divergence. We conducted a molecular population genetic analysis of four X/Y gene pairs from a collection of 45 wild papaya accessions. These population genetic analyses reveal striking differences in the patterns of polymorphism between the X and Y chromosomes that distinguish them from other sex chromosome systems. In most sex chromosome systems, the Y chromosome displays significantly reduced polymorphism levels, whereas the X chromosome maintains a level of polymorphism that is comparable to autosomal loci. However, the four papaya sex-linked loci that we examined display diversity patterns that are opposite this trend: the papaya X alleles exhibit significantly reduced polymorphism levels, whereas the papaya Y alleles maintain greater than expected levels of diversity. Our analyses suggest that selective sweeps in the regions of the X have contributed to this pattern while also revealing geographically restricted haplogroups on the Y. We discuss the possible role sexual selection and/or genomic conflict have played in shaping the contrasting patterns of polymorphism found for the papaya X and Y chromosomes.

Evaluation of the effects of precipitation on ground-water levels from wells in selected alluvial aquifers in Utah and Arizona, 1936-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, Philip M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

2009-01-01

Increased withdrawals from alluvial aquifers of the southwestern United States during the last half-century have intensified the effects of drought on ground-water levels in valleys where withdrawal for irrigation is greatest. Furthermore, during wet periods, reduced withdrawals coupled with increased natural recharge cause rising ground-water levels. In order to manage water resources more effectively, analysis of ground-water levels under the influence of natural and anthropogenic stresses is useful. This report evaluates the effects of precipitation patterns on ground-water levels in areas of Utah and Arizona that have experienced different amounts of ground-water withdrawal. This includes a comparison of water-level records from basins that are hydrogeologically and climatologically similar but have contrasting levels of ground-water development. Hydrologic data, including records of ground-water levels, basin-wide annual ground-water withdrawals, and precipitation were examined from two basins in Utah (Milford and central Sevier) and three in Arizona (Aravaipa Canyon, Willcox, and Douglas). Most water-level records examined in this study from basins experiencing substantial ground-water development (Milford, Douglas, and Willcox) showed strong trends of declining water levels. Other water-level records, generally from the less-developed basins (central Sevier and Aravaipa Canyon) exhibited trends of increasing water levels. These trends are likely the result of accumulating infiltration of unconsumed irrigation water. Water-level records that had significant trends were detrended by subtraction of a low-order polynomial in an attempt to eliminate the variation in the water-level records that resulted from ground-water withdrawal or the application of water for irrigation. After detrending, water-level residuals were correlated with 2- to 10-year moving averages of annual precipitation from representative stations for the individual basins. The water-level residual time series for each well was matched with the 2- to 10-year moving average of annual precipitation with which it was best correlated and the results were compared across basins and hydrologic settings. Analysis of water-level residuals and moving averages of annual precipitation indicate that ground-water levels in the Utah basins respond more slowly to precipitation patterns than those from the Arizona basins. This is attributed to the dominant mechanism of recharge that most directly influences the respective valley aquifers. Substantial recharge in the Utah basins likely originates as infiltrating snowmelt in the mountain block far from the valley aquifer, whereas mountain-front recharge and streambed infiltration of runoff are the dominant recharge mechanisms operating in the Arizona basins. It was determined that the fraction of water-level variation caused by local precipitation patterns becomes more difficult to resolve with increasing effects of ground-water pumping, especially from incomplete records. As the demand for ground water increases in the southwestern United States, long-term records of ground-water levels have the potential to provide valuable information about the precipitation-driven variation in water levels, which has implications to water management related to water availability.

TRENDS AND IDEAS COMMON TO LIBRARIANSHIP, TELEVISION AND FILM PRODUCTION EDUCATION, SUMMARY.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

WHITENACK, CAROLYN I.; AND OTHERS

IN "EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP RE NEW MEDIA," CAROLYN I. WHITENACK GIVES A BRIEF OUTLINE OF LIBRARY EDUCATION AND STATES THE PHILOSOPHY, STANDARDS, AND PATTERNS OF CURRICULUM RELATING TO EDUCATIONAL MEDIA AT THE GRADUATE AND UNDERGRADUATE LEVELS. JOHN M. MORIARTY DISCUSSES "EDUCATION AND TRAINING OF THE FILM PRODUCTION…

Three Essays on Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Fang

2015-01-01

In the first chapter, I analyze the growth patterns of postsecondary education costs in re-cent years. It shows the trends of college revenue, expenditure and other financial items using data drawn from the Delta Data Project between 1987 and 2010. Connections between various categories of revenue/spending and state-level macroeconomic indicators…

Control of Teacher Certification in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tobin, Kerri

2012-01-01

Teacher certification trends in the United States since World War II paint a complicated picture of powerful interests at different levels making demands and trying to institute disparate reforms. These patterns have varied over time, often because of teacher supply and demand. The federal government initiated its involvement when education…

Future Directions for Engineering Education: System Response to a Changing World.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge. Center for Policy Alternatives.

This report consolidates information on the engineering population - numbers, employment patterns, educational levels, personality, technical obsolescence - and probes the implications of current social and employment trends. Included are: data and analyses of the engineering education system seen in the context of the changing world; the…

COLLAGE: A Collaborative Learning Design Editor Based on Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hernandez-Leo, Davinia; Villasclaras-Fernandez, Eloy D.; Asensio-Perez, Juan I.; Dimitriadis, Yannis; Jorrin-Abellan, Ivan M.; Ruiz-Requies, Ines; Rubia-Avi, Bartolome

2006-01-01

This paper introduces "Collage", a high-level IMS-LD compliant authoring tool that is specialized for CSCL (Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning). Nowadays CSCL is a key trend in e-learning since it highlights the importance of social interactions as an essential element of learning. CSCL is an interdisciplinary domain, which…

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

PubMed

Day, L H

1995-09-01

The conclusion of this analysis of fertility trends in industrialized countries is that future trends will be evident from accurate data and the inclusion of causal factors such as religion, ethnicity, migration status, marital status, employment status, neighborhood residence, or housing type. Period fertility measures are considered to be unreliable but useful as indicators of potential future changes in fertility. The expectation is that developed countries with low birth rates will have greater fluctuations than trends. Current patterns of fertility in developed countries are thought to have occurred due to substantial control over both the number and the timing of fertility. Patterns in the recent past have reflected further decline, an end to decline and a continued increase, or fluctuation. The most widespread pattern is continued increase following a period of low fertility. This pattern is in evidence in almost every country of northern and western Europe, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand. Countries with continued declines include Japan and eastern and southern European countries, which were the last to experience declines to replacement levels. Countries with fluctuating patterns include Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland. Countries with greater fluctuations include Belgium, Iceland, the former West Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. The argument is made to not count these patterns as fluctuations due to 1) the similarity in magnitude, timing, and direction; 2) the small changes after the low was reached; and 3) their appearance everywhere at the same time. Stability of rates in the future appears to be a reasonable prospect due to the greater openness about human sexuality and the wider roles for women. Changes have occurred in attitudes about family size in the direction of smaller families, and the range in family size has narrowed considerably. Potential increases may occur due to a new emphasis on family and parenthood, the diminished impact of divorce on childbearing, and greater emotional value placed on children, potential dissatisfaction among women in the work force, and loss of interest in acquisition of consumer items and satiety of human wants.

Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

Links between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and recent trends in European winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Joyce, Terrence

2015-04-01

European precipitation has sustained robust trends during wintertime (January - March) over recent decades. Central, western, and northern Europe have become wetter by an average 0.1-0.3% per annum for the period 1901-2010, while southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, much of Italy and the Balkan States, has sustained drying of -0.2% per annum or more over the same period. The overall pattern is consistent across different observational precipitation products, while the magnitude of the precipitation trends varies amongst data sets. Using cluster analysis, which identifies recurrent states (or regimes) of European winter precipitation by grouping them according to an objective similarity criterion, changes in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns over the past century are evaluated. Considerable multi-decadal variability exists in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns: more recent decades are characterised by significantly fewer winters with anomalous wet conditions over southern, western, and central Europe. In contrast, winters with dry conditions in western and southern Europe, but above-average rainfall in western Scandinavia and the northern British Isles, have been more common recently. We evaluate the associated multi-decadal large-scale circulation changes across the broader extratropical North Atlantic region, which accompany the observed wintertime precipitation variability using the 20th Century reanalysis product. Some influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in modulating the frequency of dominant precipitation patterns. However, recent trends in the characteristics of atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic sector indicate a change in the dominant blocking centres (near Greenland, the British Isles, and west of the Iberian Peninsula). Associated changes in sea level pressure, storm track position and strength, and oceanic heat fluxes across the North Atlantic region are also addressed.

Trends in public perceptions and preferences on energy and environmental policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farhar, B.C.

1993-02-01

This report presents selected results from a secondary analysis of public opinion surveys, taken at the national and state/local levels, relevant to energy and environmental policy choices. The data base used in the analysis includes about 2000 items from nearly 600 separate surveys conducted between 1979 and 1992. Answers to word-for-word questions were traced over time, permitting trend analysis. Patterns of response were also identified for findings from similarly worded survey items. The analysis identifies changes in public opinion concerning energy during the past 10 to 15 years.

Trends in US women's use of sexual and reproductive health care services, 1995-2002.

PubMed

Frost, Jennifer J

2008-10-01

I examined the 1995 and 2002 National Survey of Family Growth for patterns and trends in the use of sexual and reproductive health care services by US women according to type of provider. The percentage of women reporting receipt of contraceptive services rose between 1995 and 2002 (from 36% to 41%), and the level and mix of services received varied considerably according to type of provider. Women visiting publicly funded providers received a broader mix of services than did clients of private providers.

Trends in US Women's Use of Sexual and Reproductive Health Care Services, 1995–2002

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

I examined the 1995 and 2002 National Survey of Family Growth for patterns and trends in the use of sexual and reproductive health care services by US women according to type of provider. The percentage of women reporting receipt of contraceptive services rose between 1995 and 2002 (from 36% to 41%), and the level and mix of services received varied considerably according to type of provider. Women visiting publicly funded providers received a broader mix of services than did clients of private providers. PMID:18703443

The evolution of body size in extant groups of North American freshwater fishes: speciation, size distributions, and Cope's rule.

PubMed

Knouft, Jason H; Page, Lawrence M

2003-03-01

Change in body size within an evolutionary lineage over time has been under investigation since the synthesis of Cope's rule, which suggested that there is a tendency for mammals to evolve larger body size. Data from the fossil record have subsequently been examined for several other taxonomic groups to determine whether they also displayed an evolutionary increase in body size. However, we are not aware of any species-level study that has investigated the evolution of body size within an extant continental group. Data acquired from the fossil record and data derived from the evolutionary relationships of extant species are not similar, with each set exhibiting both strengths and weaknesses related to inferring evolutionary patterns. Consequently, expectation that general trends exhibited in the fossil record will correspond to patterns in extant groups is not necessarily warranted. Using phylogenetic relationships of extant species, we show that five of nine families of North American freshwater fishes exhibit an evolutionary trend of decreasing body size. These trends result from the basal position of large species and the more derived position of small species within families. Such trends may be caused by the invasion of small streams and subsequent isolation and speciation. This pattern, potentially influenced by size-biased dispersal rates and the high percentage of small streams in North America, suggests a scenario that could result in the generation of the size-frequency distribution of North American freshwater fishes.

Utility of a near real-time emergency department syndromic surveillance system to track injuries in New York City.

PubMed

Seil, Kacie; Marcum, Jennifer; Lall, Ramona; Stayton, Catherine

2015-12-01

The New York City emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance (SS) system provides near real-time data on the majority of ED visits. The utility of ED SS for injury surveillance has not been thoroughly evaluated. We created injury syndromes based on ED chief complaint information and evaluated their utility compared to administrative billing data. Six injury syndromes were developed: traffic-related injuries to pedal cyclists, pedestrians, and motor vehicle occupants; fall-related injuries; firearm-related injuries; and assault-related stabbings. Daily injury counts were compared for ED SS and the administrative billing data for years 2008-2010. We examined characteristics of injury trends and patterns between the two systems, calculating descriptive statistics for temporal patterns and Pearson correlation coefficients (r) for temporal trends. We also calculated proportions of demographic and geospatial patterns for both systems. Although daily volume of the injuries varied between the two systems, the temporal patterns were similar (all r values for daily volume exceeded 0.65). Comparisons of injuries by time of day, day of week, and quarter of year demonstrated high agreement between the two systems-the majority had an absolute percentage point difference of 2.0 or less. Distributions of injury by sex and age group also aligned well. Distribution of injury by neighborhood of residence showed mixed results-some neighborhood comparisons showed a high level of agreement between systems, while others were less successful. As evidenced by the strong positive correlation coefficients and the small absolute percentage point differences in our comparisons, we conclude that ED SS captures temporal trends and patterns of injury-related ED visits effectively. The system could be used to identify changes in injury patterns, allowing for situational awareness during emergencies, timely response, and public messaging.

Dietary patterns are associated with biochemical markers of inflammation and endothelial activation in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)2

PubMed Central

Nettleton, Jennifer A; Steffen, Lyn M; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J; Jenny, Nancy S; Jiang, Rui; Herrington, David M; Jacobs, David R

2010-01-01

Background Dietary patterns may influence cardiovascular disease risk through effects on inflammation and endothelial activation. Objective We examined relations between dietary patterns and markers of inflammation and endothelial activation. Design At baseline, diet (food-frequency questionnaire) and concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin 6 (IL-6), homocysteine, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and soluble E selectin were assessed in 5089 nondiabetic participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Results Four dietary patterns were derived by using factor analysis. The fats and processed meats pattern (fats, oils, processed meats, fried potatoes, salty snacks, and desserts) was positively associated with CRP (P for trend < 0.001), IL-6 (P for trend < 0.001), and homocysteine (P for trend = 0.002). The beans, tomatoes, and refined grains pattern (beans, tomatoes, refined grains, and high-fat dairy products) was positively related to sICAM-1 (P for trend = 0.007). In contrast, the whole grains and fruit pattern (whole grains, fruit, nuts, and green leafy vegetables) was inversely associated with CRP, IL-6, homocysteine (P for trend ≤ 0.001), and sICAM-1 (P for trend = 0.034), and the vegetables and fish pattern (fish and dark-yellow, cruciferous, and other vegetables) was inversely related to IL-6 (P for trend = 0.009). CRP, IL-6, and homocysteine relations across the fats and processed meats and whole grains and fruit patterns were independent of demographics and lifestyle factors and were not modified by race-ethnicity. CRP and homocysteine relations were independent of waist circumference. Conclusions These results corroborate previous findings that empirically derived dietary patterns are associated with inflammation and show that these relations in an ethnically diverse population with unique dietary habits are similar to findings in more homogeneous populations. PMID:16762949

[The economic crisis at the beginning of the XXI century and mortality in Spain. Trend and impact on social inequalities. SESPAS Report 2014].

PubMed

Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel; Córdoba-Doña, Juan Antonio; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Juárez, Sol; Escolar-Pujolar, Antonio

2014-06-01

This study aimed to assess the impact of the current economic crisis on mortality trends in Spain and its effect on social inequalities in mortality in Andalusia. We used data from vital statistics and the Population Register for 1999 to 2011, as provided by the Spanish Institute of Statistics, to estimate general and sex- and age-specific mortality rates. The Longitudinal Database of the Andalusian Population (2001 census cohort) was used to estimate general mortality rates and ratios by educational level. The annual percentages of change and trends were calculated using Joinpoint regressions. No significant change in the mortality trend was observed in Spain from 2008 onward. A downward trend after 1999 was confirmed for all causes and both sexes, with the exception of nervous system-related diseases. The reduction in mortality due to traffic accidents accelerated after 2003, while the negative trend in suicide was unchanged throughout the period studied. In Andalusia, social inequalities in mortality have increased among men since the beginning of the crisis, mainly due to a more intense reduction in mortality among persons with a higher educational level. Among women, no changes were observed in the pattern of inequality. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Infant mortality evolution in Romania: perspectives from a country in transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burlea, A.-M.; Muntele, I.

2012-04-01

In the last two decades transition was a word used to describe the important mutations that have characterized social and economic structures in Romania. All the changes left their mark on every aspects of life including on population health status, and all modifications were reflected in the evolution of health indicators. Considered one of the most sensitive indicators of living conditions, population health literacy level and healthcare system efficiency infant mortality rate is a negative indicator which reflects the intensity of children deaths before their first anniversary. Based on the current statistical data collected at county level, this research aims to underline the existing spatial differences in Romania at county level, to identify spatial patterns, time trend and to point out the territories that need special attention and a more profound analysis for understanding the causes that are generating them. Using mathematical and statistical methods we have calculated infant mortality for a previous and available period of time (1990 - 2010) and identified a trend influenced by exogenous and endogenous factors. With the help of GIS techniques we have created cartographic material for allowing us an easier identification of spatial disparities. Following the global trend, Romania achieved significant progress in reduction infant mortality. From values that exceeded 26 ‰ at the beginning of the nineties this indicator has continued to diminish until 9.79 ‰ in 2010. But, with all the improvements, value is still double in compare with European Union average. Although characteristic for Romania is the general downward trend, at the county level there can be identified different types of evolution and different spatial pattern. Having the lowest economic development level in the country, Northeast and Southeast counties maintain high values for infant mortality rate. Positive examples are given by Bucharest and some central and western districts, all with socio-economic indicators above the national average. In this context, identification, monitoring and description of infant mortality rate spatial disparities are becoming key points for policy makers and stakeholders as first steps needed for finding the most suitable measures to reduce them, measures tailored for any administrative level in which they occur.

Ocean Basin Impact of Ambient Noise on Marine Mammal Detectability, Distribution, and Acoustic Communication - YIP

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

soundscape into frequency categories and sound level percentiles allowed for detailed examination of the acoustic environment that would not have been...patterns and trends across sound level parameters and frequency at a single location, it is recommended that the soundscape of any region be...joined to better understand the contribution and variation in distant shipping noise to local soundscapes (Ainslie & Miksis-Olds, 2013) REFERENCES

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-01-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer—Olympians and supercentenarians—under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic “probabilistic barrier” limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic “barrier” forecast. PMID:25143003

Application of a Weighted Regression Model for Reporting Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations, Fluxes, and Trends in Concentration and Flux for the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network, Results Through Water Year 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chanat, Jeffrey G.; Moyer, Douglas L.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Hyer, Kenneth E.; Langland, Michael J.

2016-01-13

Inconsistencies related to changing laboratory methods were also examined via two manipulative experiments. In the first experiment, increasing and decreasing “stair-step” patterns of changes in censoring level, overall representing a factor-of-five change in the laboratory reporting limit, were artificially imposed on a 27-year record with no censoring and a period-of-record concentration trend of –68.4 percent. Trends estimated on the basis of the manipulated records were broadly similar to the original trend (–63.6 percent for decreasing censoring levels and –70.3 percent for increasing censoring levels), lending a degree of confidence that the survival regression routines upon which WRTDS is based are generally robust to data censoring. The second experiment considered an abrupt disappearance of low-concentration observations of total phosphorus, associated with a laboratory method change and not reflected through censoring, near the middle of a 28-year record. By process of elimination, an upward shift in the estimated flow-normalize concentration trend line around the same time was identified as a likely artifact resulting from the laboratory method change, although a contemporaneous change in watershed processes cannot be ruled out. Decisions as to how to treat records with potential sampling protocol or laboratory methods-related artifacts should be made on a case-by-case basis, and trend results should be appropriately qualified.

The Effects of Chinese Dietary Trends on Global and Local Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, J.

2015-12-01

Global land scarcity is a major concern, which, due to climate change, lifestyle changes, and population growth, will only continue to worsen. It is a major driver of global environmental degradation, famine, and sociopolitical conflicts. With some 33% of the world's dwindling supply of arable land dedicated to grossly inefficient animal husbandry or animal feed production, it is easy to see that dietary consumption patterns play an important role. Although population growth in East Asia has stagnated, changing dietary trends mean that China is now the world's largest consumers of meat, consuming 25% of global meat production, despite having less than half of the American per capita equivalent. This paper assesses changing dietary consumption patterns of Taiwan, whose current per capita meat consumption surpasses all other East Asian countries, over the past 30 years and considers the relationship this has had on overall land consumption. We then consider dietary trends of Mainland China, which shares a common cultural heritage and whose current Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is similar to Taiwanese PPP levels in 1985. Finally we retrospectively project three alternative Taiwanese consumption patterns over the past 30 years, consider the effect of each scenario on per capita land consumption, and finally consider these results in terms of culturally analogues Mainland China.

Patterns and Trends in Elder Homicide Across Race and Ethnicity, 1985-2009

PubMed Central

Feldmeyer, Ben; Steffensmeier, Darrell

2014-01-01

In this report, we assess total and race/ethnicity-disaggregated patterns and temporal trends in elderly homicide (age 55-74) compared with younger age groups for the 1985-to-2009 period. To do this, we use California arrest statistics that provide annual homicide figures by race and ethnicity (including a Hispanic identifier) and by age. Major aims of our analysis are to establish whether (a) elderly homicide rates are different/similar across race/ethnic comparisons; (b) the elderly share of homicide and age-homicide distributions more generally differ across race/ethnicity; and (c) elderly rates of homicide and the share of elderly homicide relative to younger age groups is similar or different now as compared with 20 to 30 years ago. Our analysis is important and timely because some commentators have suggested that elderly homicide levels have been rising over the past one to two decades and because there is a virtual absence of research of any sort on elderly homicide trends that involve comparisons by race and ethnicity. Key findings are that elderly shares of homicide offending relative to younger ages have not increased (or decreased), that elder homicides continue to account for a small fraction of all homicides, and that these patterns persist across race/ethnicity comparisons. PMID:25598653

Stress and dietary behaviour among first-year university students in Australia: sex differences.

PubMed

Papier, Keren; Ahmed, Faruk; Lee, Patricia; Wiseman, Juliet

2015-02-01

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between stress and food selection patterns by sex among first-year undergraduate students studying in an Australian university. Participating in this cross-sectional study were 728 (331 men and 397 female students) first-year students, ages >18 y, attending the Gold Coast Campus of Griffith University. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire consisting of three sections: sociodemographic information, stress measures, and a 7-d food frequency questionnaire. More than half (52.9%) of the participants were found to suffer from some level of stress, with relatively more female students (57.4%) suffering than men (47.4%). Men who experienced mild to moderate levels of stress were two to three times more likely to eat cereal foods (P < 0.01), fish/seafood (P < 0.001), and protein powder (P < 0.05). They also tended to eat more meat alternatives (P < 0.05), highly processed foods (P < 0.05), and to drink more alcohol (P < 0.05) than unstressed male students. However, they were less likely to consume vegetables and fruit (P < 0.05) compared with their unstressed counterparts. The trend analysis results indicated significant dose-response patterns in the relationship between stress level and consumption of cereal food, meat alternatives, vegetables and fruit (negative trend), highly processed food, protein powder, beverages and alcoholic beverages (all P < 0.05). Female students who experienced mild to moderate stress were 2.22 times more likely to eat processed food (P < 0.01) than unstressed female students. Female students who experienced severe stress were less likely to consume meat alternatives (P < 0.05) than their unstressed counterparts. Significant dose-response trends were found in the relationship between stress levels and the consumption of meat alternatives, vegetables and fruit (both negative trends), and processed food (all P < 0.01). These results demonstrate a clear difference in food selection patterns between stressed male and female students, with stress being a more significant predictor of unhealthy food selection among male students. Further research is needed using a qualitative approach to understand how stress and eating behavior are related in university students. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

Cause-specific sickness absence trends by occupational class and industrial sector in the context of recent labour market changes: a Finnish panel data study

PubMed Central

Leinonen, Taina; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Solovieva, Svetlana

2018-01-01

Objectives We aimed to provide previously unestablished information on population-based differences in cause-specific sickness absence trends between occupational classes and further between four large industrial sectors within the different occupational classes while controlling for other socioeconomic factors and employment patterns. We focused on the period 2005–2013, during which the labour market underwent large economic and structural changes in many countries. Design Register-based panel data study. Setting Large representative datasets on Finnish wage earners aged 25–59 years. Outcome measure Annual risk of sickness absence (>10 working days) based on repeated logistic regression. Results Between 2005 and 2013, the proportion of employees with sickness absence decreased. Occupational class differences in sickness absence trends varied by disease group. Overall, the decrease in absences was smallest among lower non-manual employees. Sickness absence levels were highest in the health and social work sector and in the manufacturing sector within the non-manual and manual classes, respectively. Absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily during the peak of the economic recession in 2009, particularly in the manufacturing sector within the manual class. The decrease in absences due to musculoskeletal diseases was smallest in the trade sector within the lower occupational classes. Overall, education, income and employment patterns partly explained the differences in the absence levels, but not in the trends. Conclusions We found a complex interplay between the associations of occupational class and industrial sector with sickness absence trends. During the economic recession, absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily in a segment of wage earners who were known to have been hit hard by the recession. However, the trend differences were not explained by the measured structural changes in the characteristics of the study population. Both occupational class and industrial sector should be taken into account when tackling problems of work disability. PMID:29627810

Worldwide patterns of ischemic heart disease mortality from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Gouvinhas, Cláudia; Severo, Milton; Azevedo, Ana; Lunet, Nuno

2014-01-01

The trends in the IHD mortality rates vary widely across countries, reflecting the heterogeneity in the variation of the exposure to the main risk factors and in the access to different management strategies among settings. We aimed to identify model-based patterns in the time trends in IHD mortality in 50 countries from the five continents, between 1980 and 2010. Mixed models were used to identify time trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) (age group 35+years; world standard population), all including random terms for intercept, slope, quadratic and cubic. Model-based clustering was used to identify the patterns. We identified five main patterns of IHD mortality trends in the last three decades, similar for men and women. Pattern 1 had the highest ASMR and pattern 2 exhibited the most pronounced decrease in ASMR during the entire study period. Pattern 3 was characterized by an initial increase in ASMR, followed by a sharp decline. Countries in pattern 4 had the lowest ASMR throughout the study period. It was further divided into patterns 4a (consistent decrease in ASMR throughout the period of analysis) and 4b (less pronounced declines and highest rates observed mostly between 1996 and 2004). There was no correspondence between the geographic or economical grouping of the analyzed countries and the patterns found in this study. Our study yielded a new framework for the description, interpretation and prediction of IHD mortality trends worldwide. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are more North American species decreasing than increasing?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Droege, S.; Sauer, J.R.; Hagemeijer, E.J.M.; Verstrael, T.J.

1994-01-01

Population trends for North American species are calculated for 1966-'91 and 1982-'91 using Nonh American Breeding Bird Survey data. Species are grouped into 3 systems of guild classifications representing migration status, breeding habitat and nesting substrate. Trends for these groups are summarized by time period, bioregion and physiographic region. At the continental level, declines approximately equalled increases. There are slightly more declines during the last 10 years. Prairie populations declined more than expected, while western populations increased. Scrub and grassland nesting species declined significantly in several bioregions while woodland species increased. Most guilds did not depart significantly from a ratio of 50:50 increases to decreases or have opposing trends in different bioregions. Guild group changes are usually clustered geographically. Guild and other analyses that search for patterns among population trend estimates offer an excellent means of identifying critical conservation issues.

Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in coastal waters of northern South China Sea.

PubMed

Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Lifei; Jia, Xiaoping; Jackson, Donald A

2017-09-01

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10 -5 , both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.

Levels and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils after forest fires in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Eun Jung; Choi, Sung-Deuk; Chang, Yoon-Seok

2011-11-01

To investigate the influence of biomass burning on the levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils, temporal trends and profiles of 16 US Environmental Protection Agency priority PAHs were studied in soil and ash samples collected 1, 5, and 9 months after forest fires in South Korea. The levels of PAHs in the burnt soils 1 month after the forest fires (mean, 1,200 ng/g dry weight) were comparable with those of contaminated urban soils. However, 5 and 9 months after the forest fires, these levels decreased considerably to those of general forest soils (206 and 302 ng/g, respectively). The burnt soils and ash were characterized by higher levels of light PAHs with two to four rings, reflecting direct emissions from biomass burning. Five and 9 months after the forest fires, the presence of naphthalene decreased considerably, which indicates that light PAHs were rapidly volatilized or degraded from the burnt soils. The temporal trend and pattern of PAHs clearly suggests that soils in the forest-fire region can be contaminated by PAHs directly emitted from biomass burning. However, the fire-affected soils can return to the pre-fire conditions over time through the washout and wind dissipation of the ash with high content of PAHs as well as vaporization or degradation of light PAHs.

Trends in the treatment of chronic kidney disease-associated anaemia in a cohort of haemodialysis patients: the Irish experience.

PubMed

Gardiner, Roisin; Roshan, Davood; Brennan, Ann; Connolly, Denise; Murray, Susan; Reddan, Donal

2018-04-27

Anaemia among haemodialysis patients is treated with iron and erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs). ESAs reduce requirements for blood transfusions but are also expensive and overzealous use may be associated with adverse outcomes. Recent international trends have been characterised by reduced ESA doses and a greater reliance on intravenous (IV) iron. We determined trends in prescribing patterns of ESAs and IV iron for the treatment of anaemia in two representative Irish dialysis centres and correlated with current guidelines and international trends. Patient data was accessed from the Kidney Disease Clinical Patient Management System (KDCPMS) for the period 2012 to 2014. We generated reports on ESA and iron doses, lab data (haemoglobin (Hb), transferrin saturation (TSAT) and ferritin) and patient population characteristics. We mapped the trends in ESA, iron dosing and lab parameters achieved. A linear mixed model determined the significance of these trends over time. ESA dosing became lower in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2014. Dosing of iron increased throughout but a large increase was seen in the third and fourth quarters of 2014. Ferritin levels decreased and TSAT and haemoglobin levels increased. Changes in iron dosing were significant with p value of < 0.05. Our findings are consistent with recent global trends toward increasing iron use. Such trends may have economic implications given the high cost of ESAs and the relative affordability of iron. In addition, the potential harm of excessive iron dosing may need to be considered.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

CHANGES IN MARRIAGE PATTERNS AMONG THE ARAB COMMUNITY IN ISRAEL OVER A 60-YEAR PERIOD.

PubMed

Sharkia, Rajech; Mahajnah, Muhammad; Athamny, Esmael; Khatib, Mohammad; Sheikh-Muhammad, Ahmad; Zalan, Abdelnaser

2016-03-01

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and trends of various types of consanguineous marriage among the Arab community in Israel over a long time period (1948-2007) by religion and educational level. Data were collected by face-to-face interview of 3173 Arab couples living in Israel in 2007 and 2008. The trend in consanguineous marriages was found to decrease significantly over successive time periods, from 42.5% to 30.9% (p=0.001), and the prevalence of first-cousin and closer marriages decreased, from 23% to 12.7%. Consanguinity was found to be significantly related to religion (p=0.001) and wife's level of education (p=0.028).

On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

2010-12-01

Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

Women Geoscientists have been Under-represented, Under-employed and Underpaid at All Levels of Experience in Scientific Professions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneer, Cecil J.

1977-01-01

Provides results of a survey of employment patterns of women in the geoscience fields. Results are compared to a similar 1971 survey; trends indicate that while the position of women has improved they are still under-employed and underpaid in most fields. (SL)

Court Cases Involving Contracts for School Districts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, L. Hank

2011-01-01

The purpose of this research was to analyze trends in the United States regarding contract disputes that exist in school districts. Court cases were identified at the state and federal level to determine the outcomes and the fact patterns of contract disputes. To gain the knowledge of how courts handle cases of contractual breach, contracts…

Recent Fertility Change Among High Fertility Minorities in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sweet, James A.

Trends and differentials in fertility for three high fertility minority populations -- Southern rural blacks, Spanish surnamed, and American Indians -- are examined for the intervals between 1957-60 and 1967-70. Fertility levels and patterns of differentials within these three minority populations are also compared with those of the urban white…

Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Marc

2002-01-01

Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

Monitoring Child Abuse and Neglect at a Population Level: Patterns of Hospital Admissions for Maltreatment and Assault

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Donnell, Melissa; Nassar, Natasha; Leonard, Helen; Mathews, Richard; Patterson, Yvonne; Stanley, Fiona

2010-01-01

Objectives: To investigate the prevalence, trends, and characteristics of maltreatment and assault related hospital admissions and deaths among children; and identify common injuries and conditions associated with these admissions using routinely collected morbidity and mortality data. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of all children aged…

Young Attitude on Sustainable Development: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tuncer, Gaye; Sungur, Semra; Tekkaya, Ceren; Ertepinar, Hamide

2005-01-01

Patterns of consumption and production are not sustainable in developed/developing countries. In developed countries, the levels of pollution, especially those causing global change, are far too high and trends go in the wrong direction. In developing countries, there is too much strain on the local resource base, and this strain is increasing due…

Using conditional probability to identify trends in intra-day high-frequency equity pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rechenthin, Michael; Street, W. Nick

2013-12-01

By examining the conditional probabilities of price movements in a popular US stock over different high-frequency intra-day timespans, varying levels of trend predictability are identified. This study demonstrates the existence of predictable short-term trends in the market; understanding the probability of price movement can be useful to high-frequency traders. Price movement was examined in trade-by-trade (tick) data along with temporal timespans between 1 s to 30 min for 52 one-week periods for one highly-traded stock. We hypothesize that much of the initial predictability of trade-by-trade (tick) data is due to traditional market dynamics, or the bouncing of the price between the stock’s bid and ask. Only after timespans of between 5 to 10 s does this cease to explain the predictability; after this timespan, two consecutive movements in the same direction occur with higher probability than that of movements in the opposite direction. This pattern holds up to a one-minute interval, after which the strength of the pattern weakens.

Sources of trends in water-quality data for selected streams in Texas, 1975-89 water years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schertz, T.L.; Wells, F.C.; Ohe, D.J.

1994-01-01

The probable source of trend patterns in nutrients and measures of oxygen in the Trinity River Basin was changes in the wastewater treatment facilities in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. A pattern of increased concentrations of inorganic constituents in the upper Colorado River Basin resulted from emergency releases of water from the Natural Darn Lake, a salinity control structure. Trend patterns in inorganic constituents in the Rio Grande Basin were a result of increasing concentrations in the Pecos River and, to a lesser extent, the Rio Grande above the Amistad Reservoir, combined with the effects of reservoir regulation. A pattern of increasing concentrations of organic plus ammonia nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen was detected for the 1975-86 water years for stations with low concentrations (generally less than 5 milligrams per liter) of these nitrogen species. The trends were no longer evident when the period of trend analysis was extended to the 1989 water year. A positive bias in the data caused by the addition of mercuric chloride tablets to preserve nutrient samples during 1980-86 was the probable source of this trend pattern. A pattern of increasing concentrations in dissolved sulfate in the eastern part of the State was a result of a positive bias in the analytical results of a turbidimetric method of sulfate analysis. The source of a statewide pattern of increased pH in streams could not be identified.

Trends and patterns of urbanization in Egypt during the 1966-1976 intercensal period.

PubMed

Morcos, W S

1980-01-01

The author analyzes the decline in the rate of urbanization and the effects of this decline on traditional patterns of urbanization in Egypt between 1966 and 1976. Trends and patterns of urbanization in the twentieth century are briefly examined. National policies and their effects on urbanization patterns are reviewed (SUMMARY IN ARA)

Quantitative analysis of a transpressional system, El Biod Arch, Ghadames Basin, Algeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, S.R.; Krantz, R.W.; Akkache, K.

1996-12-31

Trap definition within the northern extension of the Hassi Touareg - Rhourde El Baguel fault zone in the western Ghadames Basin of Algeria is difficult due to complex structural geometries. The fault zone consists of a narrow system of discontinuous. locally en echelon faults. Although north-trending to the south, the zone curves to a northeast trend to the north. Reserves associated with the southern portion of the system total 1500 MMBOR and 2 TCFG. Several lines of evidence support a strike-slip component of motion for the northern segment. Horizontal slickensides have been described in cores taken from wells within themore » fault trend. Fracture patterns measured from logs taken within the NE-SW fault trend show clusters expected for right-lateral Reidel shears. Although complicated by all evaporate sequence at mid-level in the stratigraphic section, we interpret downward converging faults imaged on recent 2D seismic as positive flower profiles. Map patterns are also interpreted as right-lateral, recognizing that the 2D grid cannot resolve all of the structural complexity. To confirm the component of strike-slip fault displacement, we applied a new quantitative method relating map view structural orientations to the shear magnitude, the degree of convergence or divergence, and the magnitudes of horizontal and vertical strains. Strike-slip to convergence ratios ranging from 2:1 to 3:1 were measured in the study area. Higher ratios (10:1) measured above the salt may indicate a detachment. These ratios also fit the regional tectonic pattern: to the south, where the fault zone trends due north, structural geometries support dip-slip inversion indicative of east-west shortening. Applying the same shortening vector to the northeast-trending part of the zone suggests oblique right-lateral motion, with a strike-slip to convergence ratio of 2:1.« less

Quantitative analysis of a transpressional system, El Biod Arch, Ghadames Basin, Algeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, S.R.; Krantz, R.W.; Akkache, K.

1996-01-01

Trap definition within the northern extension of the Hassi Touareg - Rhourde El Baguel fault zone in the western Ghadames Basin of Algeria is difficult due to complex structural geometries. The fault zone consists of a narrow system of discontinuous. locally en echelon faults. Although north-trending to the south, the zone curves to a northeast trend to the north. Reserves associated with the southern portion of the system total 1500 MMBOR and 2 TCFG. Several lines of evidence support a strike-slip component of motion for the northern segment. Horizontal slickensides have been described in cores taken from wells within themore » fault trend. Fracture patterns measured from logs taken within the NE-SW fault trend show clusters expected for right-lateral Reidel shears. Although complicated by all evaporate sequence at mid-level in the stratigraphic section, we interpret downward converging faults imaged on recent 2D seismic as positive flower profiles. Map patterns are also interpreted as right-lateral, recognizing that the 2D grid cannot resolve all of the structural complexity. To confirm the component of strike-slip fault displacement, we applied a new quantitative method relating map view structural orientations to the shear magnitude, the degree of convergence or divergence, and the magnitudes of horizontal and vertical strains. Strike-slip to convergence ratios ranging from 2:1 to 3:1 were measured in the study area. Higher ratios (10:1) measured above the salt may indicate a detachment. These ratios also fit the regional tectonic pattern: to the south, where the fault zone trends due north, structural geometries support dip-slip inversion indicative of east-west shortening. Applying the same shortening vector to the northeast-trending part of the zone suggests oblique right-lateral motion, with a strike-slip to convergence ratio of 2:1.« less

Deterioration and modification of the biosphere leading to irreversible climatic change of the global ecosystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The level, intensity, nature and impact of man's activities upon weather and climatic changes are explored. It is shown that industrialization leads to increased CO2 levels, atmospheric dust content and land surfaces changes. This in turn causes global climatic interactions which results in a general cooling trend. Global cooperation is advocated to stem environmental degradation and weather pattern interruption by the use of corrective mechanisms.

Trends in cardiovascular risk factors across levels of education in a general population: is the educational gap increasing? The Tromsø study 1994-2008.

PubMed

Eggen, Anne Elise; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Wilsgaard, Tom; Jacobsen, Bjarne K; Njølstad, Inger

2014-08-01

To describe trends in cardiovascular risk factors and change over time across education levels, and study the influence from medicine use and gender. Data from participants (30-74 years) of the Tromsø Study in 1994-1995 (n=22 108) and in 2007-2008 (n=11 565). Blood samples, measurements and self-reported educational level and medicine use were collected. Differences in risk factor levels across education groups were persistent for all risk factors over time, with a more unfavourable pattern in the lowest education group. The exception was cholesterol, with the reduction being largest in the lowest educated, resulting in weakened educational trends over time. While a significant educational trend in cholesterol persisted among the non-users of lipid-lowering drugs (LLD), no educational trend in cholesterol was found among the LLD users in 2007-2008. The strongest educational trends were found for daily smoking and Body Mass Index (BMI). In 2007-2008 the odds for being a smoker were five times higher among the lowest educated compared to the highest educated. In men, the odds for being in the highest quintile of the BMI distribution were, in 2007-2008, almost doubled in the lowest compared to the highest educated. The lowest educated women had 6.2 mm Hg higher mean systolic blood pressure than the highly educated, mean BMI of 26.4 kg/m 2 and smoking prevalence of 37.7%. The difference across education groups for cholesterol levels decreased, while the educational gap persisted over time for the other risk factors. Use of LLD seemed to contribute to the reduction of social differences in cholesterol levels. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

a Web-Based Framework for Visualizing Industrial Spatiotemporal Distribution Using Standard Deviational Ellipse and Shifting Routes of Gravity Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Y.; Gui, Z.; Wu, H.; Wei, Y.

2017-09-01

Analysing spatiotemporal distribution patterns and its dynamics of different industries can help us learn the macro-level developing trends of those industries, and in turn provides references for industrial spatial planning. However, the analysis process is challenging task which requires an easy-to-understand information presentation mechanism and a powerful computational technology to support the visual analytics of big data on the fly. Due to this reason, this research proposes a web-based framework to enable such a visual analytics requirement. The framework uses standard deviational ellipse (SDE) and shifting route of gravity centers to show the spatial distribution and yearly developing trends of different enterprise types according to their industry categories. The calculation of gravity centers and ellipses is paralleled using Apache Spark to accelerate the processing. In the experiments, we use the enterprise registration dataset in Mainland China from year 1960 to 2015 that contains fine-grain location information (i.e., coordinates of each individual enterprise) to demonstrate the feasibility of this framework. The experiment result shows that the developed visual analytics method is helpful to understand the multi-level patterns and developing trends of different industries in China. Moreover, the proposed framework can be used to analyse any nature and social spatiotemporal point process with large data volume, such as crime and disease.

Anesthesia Practice and Clinical Trends in Interventional Radiology: A European Survey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haslam, Philip J.; Yap, Bernard; Mueller, Peter R.

Purpose: To determine current European practice in interventional radiology regarding nursing care, anesthesia, and clinical care trends.Methods: A survey was sent to 977 European interventional radiologists to assess the use of sedoanalgesia, nursing care, monitoring equipment, pre- and postprocedural care, and clinical trends in interventional radiology. Patterns of sedoanalgesia were recorded for both vascular and visceral interventional procedures. Responders rated their preferred level of sedoanalgesia for each procedure as follows: (a) awake/alert, (b) drowsy/arousable, (c) asleep/arousable, (d) deep sedation, and (e) general anesthesia. Sedoanalgesic drugs and patient care trends were also recorded. A comparison was performed with data derived frommore » a similar survey of interventional practice in the United States.Results: Two hundred and forty-three of 977 radiologists responded (25%). The total number of procedures analyzed was 210,194. The majority (56%) of diagnostic and therapeutic vascular procedures were performed at the awake/alert level of sedation, 32% were performed at the drowsy/arousable level, and 12% at deeper levels of sedation. The majority of visceral interventional procedures were performed at the drowsy/arousable level of sedation (41%), 29% were performed at deeper levels of sedation, and 30% at the awake/alert level. In general, more sedoanalgesia is used in the United States. Eighty-three percent of respondents reported the use of a full-time radiology nurse, 67% used routine blood pressure/pulse oximetry monitoring, and 46% reported the presence of a dedicated recovery area. Forty-nine percent reported daily patient rounds, 30% had inpatient hospital beds, and 51% had day case beds.Conclusion: This survey shows clear differences in the use of sedation for vascular and visceral interventional procedures. Many, often complex, procedures are performed at the awake/alert level of sedation in Europe, whereas deeper levels of sedation are used in the United States. Trends toward making interventional radiology a clinical specialty are evident, with 51% of respondents having day case beds, and 30% having inpatient beds.« less

Linguistic pattern analysis of misspellings of typically developing writers in grades 1-9.

PubMed

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Sillian, Elaine R; Berninger, Virginia W; Dow, Michael

2012-12-01

A mixed-methods approach, evaluating triple word-form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in Grades 1-9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade-level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between Grades 4 and 5. Similar error types were noted across age groups, but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Triple word-form theory was supported. By Grade 1, orthographic errors predominated, and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects nonlinear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

Isolating the Effects of the Warming Trend from the General Climate Change in Water Resources: California Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

While the population growth, the future land use change, and the desire for better environmental preservation and protection are adding up pressure on water resources management in California, California is facing an extra challenge of addressing potential climate change impacts on water supple and demand in California. The concerns on water facilities planning and flood control caused by climate change include modified precipitation patterns, changes in snow levels and runoff patterns due to increased air temperatures. Although long-term climate projections are largely uncertain, there appears to be a strong consistency in predicting the warming trend of future surface temperature, and the resulting shift in the seasonal patterns of runoff. However, projected changes in precipitation (wetting or drying), which control annual runoff, are far less certain. This paper attempts to separate the effects of warming trend from the effects of precipitation trend on water planning especially in California where reservoir operations are more sensitive to seasonal patterns of runoff than to the total annual runoff. The water resources systems planning model, CALSIM2, is used to evaluate climate change impact on water resource management in California. Rather than directly ingesting estimated streamflows from climate model projections into CALSIM2, a three step perturbation ratio method is proposed to introduce climate change impact into the planning model. Firstly, monthly perturbation ratio of projected monthly inflow to simulated historical monthly inflow is applied to observed historical monthly inflow to generate climate change inflows to major dams and reservoirs. To isolate the effects of warming trend on water resources, a further annual inflow adjustment is applied to the inflows generated in step one to preserve the volume of the observed annual inflow. To re-introduce the effects of precipitation trend on water resources, an additional inflow trend adjustment is applied to the adjusted climate change inflow. Therefore, three CALSIM2 experiments will be implemented: (1) base run with the observed historic inflow (1921 to 2003); (2) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment; (3) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment and inflow trend adjustment. To account for the variability of various climate models in projecting future climates, the uncertainty in future emission scenarios, and the difference in different projection periods, estimated inflows from 6 climate models for 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and two projection periods (2030-2059 and 2070-2099) are included in the CALSIM model experiments.

Global trends and patterns of commercial milk-based formula sales: is an unprecedented infant and young child feeding transition underway?

PubMed

Baker, Phillip; Smith, Julie; Salmon, Libby; Friel, Sharon; Kent, George; Iellamo, Alessandro; Dadhich, J P; Renfrew, Mary J

2016-10-01

The marketing of infant/child milk-based formulas (MF) contributes to suboptimal breast-feeding and adversely affects child and maternal health outcomes globally. However, little is known about recent changes in MF markets. The present study describes contemporary trends and patterns of MF sales at the global, regional and country levels. Descriptive statistics of trends and patterns in MF sales volume per infant/child for the years 2008-2013 and projections to 2018, using industry-sourced data. Eighty countries categorized by country income bracket, for developing countries by region, and in countries with the largest infant/child populations. MF categories included total (for ages 0-36 months), infant (0-6 months), follow-up (7-12 months), toddler (13-36 months) and special (0-6 months). In 2008-2013 world total MF sales grew by 40·8 % from 5·5 to 7·8 kg per infant/child/year, a figure predicted to increase to 10·8 kg by 2018. Growth was most rapid in East Asia particularly in China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam and was led by the infant and follow-up formula categories. Sales volume per infant/child was positively associated with country income level although with wide variability between countries. A global infant and young child feeding (IYCF) transition towards diets higher in MF is underway and is expected to continue apace. The observed increase in MF sales raises serious concern for global child and maternal health, particularly in East Asia, and calls into question the efficacy of current regulatory regimes designed to protect and promote optimal IYCF. The observed changes have not been captured by existing IYCF monitoring systems.

Recent trends in breast cancer incidence in US white women by county-level urban/rural and poverty status.

PubMed

Hausauer, Amelia K; Keegan, Theresa H M; Chang, Ellen T; Glaser, Sally L; Howe, Holly; Clarke, Christina A

2009-06-26

Unprecedented declines in invasive breast cancer rates occurred in the United States between 2001 and 2004, particularly for estrogen receptor-positive tumors among non-Hispanic white women over 50 years. To understand the broader public health import of these reductions among previously unstudied populations, we utilized the largest available US cancer registry resource to describe age-adjusted invasive and in situ breast cancer incidence trends for non-Hispanic white women aged 50 to 74 years overall and by county-level rural/urban and poverty status. We obtained invasive and in situ breast cancer incidence data for the years 1997 to 2004 from 29 population-based cancer registries participating in the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries resource. Annual age-adjusted rates were examined overall and by rural/urban and poverty of patients' counties of residence at diagnosis. Joinpoint regression was used to assess trends by annual quarter of diagnosis. Between 2001 and 2004, overall invasive breast cancer incidence fell 13.2%, with greater reductions among women living in urban (-13.8%) versus rural (-7.5%) and low- (-13.0%) or middle- (-13.8%) versus high- (-9.6%) poverty counties. Most incidence rates peaked around 1999 then declined after second quarter 2002, although in rural counties, rates decreased monotonically after 1999. Similar but more attenuated patterns were seen for in situ cancers. Breast cancer rates fell more substantially in urban and low-poverty, affluent counties than in rural or high-poverty counties. These patterns likely reflect a major influence of reductions in hormone therapy use after July 2002 but cannot exclude possible effects due to screening patterns, particularly among rural populations where hormone therapy use was probably less prevalent.

SOMA: A Proposed Framework for Trend Mining in Large UK Diabetic Retinopathy Temporal Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somaraki, Vassiliki; Harding, Simon; Broadbent, Deborah; Coenen, Frans

In this paper, we present SOMA, a new trend mining framework; and Aretaeus, the associated trend mining algorithm. The proposed framework is able to detect different kinds of trends within longitudinal datasets. The prototype trends are defined mathematically so that they can be mapped onto the temporal patterns. Trends are defined and generated in terms of the frequency of occurrence of pattern changes over time. To evaluate the proposed framework the process was applied to a large collection of medical records, forming part of the diabetic retinopathy screening programme at the Royal Liverpool University Hospital.

National Trends in Child and Adolescent Psychotropic Polypharmacy in Office-Based Practice, 1996-2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Comer, Jonathan S.; Olfson, Mark; Mojtabai, Ramin

2010-01-01

Objective: To examine patterns and recent trends in multiclass psychotropic treatment among youth visits to office-based physicians in the United States. Method: Annual data from the 1996-2007 National Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys were analyzed to examine patterns and trends in multiclass psychotropic treatment within a nationally…

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

PubMed

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

The role of birth cohorts in long-term trends in liver cirrhosis mortality across eight European countries.

PubMed

Trias-Llimós, Sergi; Bijlsma, Maarten J; Janssen, Fanny

2017-02-01

Understanding why inequalities in alcohol-related mortality trends by sex and country exist is essential for developing health policies. Birth cohort effects, indicative of differences by generation in drinking, have rarely been studied. This study estimated the relative contributions of birth cohorts to liver cirrhosis mortality trends and compared sex- and country-specific cohort patterns across eight European countries. Time-series analysis of population-level mortality data. Austria, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden; 1950-2011. National populations aged 15-94 years. We modelled country- and sex-specific liver cirrhosis mortality (from national vital registers) adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. Birth cohorts (adjusted for age and period) made statistically significant contributions to liver cirrhosis mortality in all countries and for both sexes (P < 0.001), and more so among women (average contribution to deviance reduction of 38.8%) than among men (17.4%). The observed cohort patterns were statistically different between all but two country pairs (P < 0.001). Sex differences existed overall (P < 0.001), but not in the majority of countries (P > 0.999). Visual inspection of birth cohort patterns reveals birth cohorts at higher risk of liver cirrhosis mortality. The inclusion of the birth cohort dimension improves the understanding of alcohol-attributable mortality trends in Europe. Birth cohorts at higher risk of liver cirrhosis mortality were born during 1935-49 in Sweden and Finland, around 1950 in Austria and the Netherlands and 1960 or later in Hungary, Italy, Poland and Spain. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) Download Data Module

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The CASTNET Download Data module allows users to select, view, and download CASTNET data (Raw, Aggregate, Modeled & Factual Data) based on user selections. CASTNET sites are located in or near rural areas and sensitive ecosystems collecting data on ambient levels of pollutants where urban influences are minimal. CASTNET, which was initiated in 1986, is able to provide data needed to assess and report on geographic patterns and long-term temporal trends in ambient air pollution and dry atmospheric deposition. CASTNET can also be used to track changes in measurements associated with climate change (such as temperature and precipitation).

The impact of North Atlantic wind and cyclone trends on European precipitation and significant wave height in the Atlantic.

PubMed

Trigo, Ricardo M; Valente, Maria A; Trigo, Isabel F; Miranda, Pedro M A; Ramos, Alexandre M; Paredes, Daniel; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2008-12-01

An analysis of the frequency of cyclones and surface wind velocity for the Euro-Atlantic sector is performed by means of an objective methodology. Monthly and seasonal trends of cyclones and wind speed magnitude are computed and trends between 1960 and 2000 evaluated. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February, and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind magnitude trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low-pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends in the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (October-March), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s/year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for January-March are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of lat 50 degrees N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5 cm/year just north of Scotland). Trends in European precipitation are assessed using the Climatic Research Unit data set. The results of the assessment emphasize the link with the corresponding tendencies of cyclone frequencies. Finally, it is shown that these changes are associated, to a large extent, with the preferred phases of major large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, particularly with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the eastern Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

Incidence and time trends of childhood lymphomas: findings from 14 Southern and Eastern European cancer registries and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results, USA.

PubMed

Georgakis, Marios K; Karalexi, Maria A; Agius, Domenic; Antunes, Luis; Bastos, Joana; Coza, Daniela; Demetriou, Anna; Dimitrova, Nadya; Eser, Sultan; Florea, Margareta; Ryzhov, Anton; Sekerija, Mario; Žagar, Tina; Zborovskaya, Anna; Zivkovic, Snezana; Bouka, Evdoxia; Kanavidis, Prodromos; Dana, Helen; Hatzipantelis, Emmanuel; Kourti, Maria; Moschovi, Maria; Polychronopoulou, Sophia; Stiakaki, Eftichia; Kantzanou, Μaria; Pourtsidis, Apostolos; Petridou, Eleni Th

2016-11-01

To describe epidemiologic patterns of childhood (0-14 years) lymphomas in the Southern and Eastern European (SEE) region in comparison with the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER), USA, and explore tentative discrepancies. Childhood lymphomas were retrieved from 14 SEE registries (n = 4,702) and SEER (n = 4,416), diagnosed during 1990-2014; incidence rates were estimated and time trends were evaluated. Overall age-adjusted incidence rate was higher in SEE (16.9/10 6 ) compared to SEER (13.6/10 6 ), because of a higher incidence of Hodgkin (HL, 7.5/10 6 vs. 5.1/10 6 ) and Burkitt lymphoma (BL, 3.1 vs. 2.3/10 6 ), whereas the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) was overall identical (5.9/10 6 vs. 5.8/10 6 ), albeit variable among SEE. Incidence increased with age, except for BL which peaked at 4 years; HL in SEE also showed an early male-specific peak at 4 years. The male preponderance was more pronounced for BL and attenuated with increasing age for HL. Increasing trends were noted in SEER for total lymphomas and NHL, and was marginal for HL, as contrasted to the decreasing HL and NHL trends generally observed in SEE registries, with the exception of increasing HL incidence in Portugal; of note, BL incidence trend followed a male-specific increasing trend in SEE. Registry-based data reveal variable patterns and time trends of childhood lymphomas in SEE and SEER during the last decades, possibly reflecting diverse levels of socioeconomic development of the populations in the respective areas; optimization of registration process may allow further exploration of molecular characteristics of disease subtypes.

Lack of exercise of "moderate to vigorous" intensity in people with low levels of physical activity is a major discriminant for sociodemographic factors and morbidity.

PubMed

Serrano-Sánchez, José A; Bello-Luján, Luis M; Auyanet-Batista, Juan M; Fernández-Rodríguez, María J; González-Henríquez, Juan J

2014-01-01

The aim is to examine the differences between participation at low and zero moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in relation to their trends and associations with known socio-demographic and health factors. We hypothesised that the number of people at zero MVPA level could be rising despite a parallel increase in the population meeting the recommended MVPA level. We also hypothesised that graded associations of sociodemographic and health factors exist across MVPA levels. Two independent population-based samples (n = 4320 [2004] and n = 2176 [1997]), were recruited with a stratified and random sampling procedure and interviewed at home by professional interviewers. The MVPA was assessed by validated questionnaire. The participants were classified into three MVPA levels: zero, low and recommended MVPA. The trend of each MVPA level was analysed with the standardized prevalence ratios. Correlates of low and zero MVPA levels were examined using multinomial logistic regression. The population at zero and recommended MVPA levels rose between 1997-2004 by 12% (95% CI, 5-20%) and 7% (95% CI,-4-19%) respectively, while the population at low MVPA level decreased. At zero MVPA level, associative patterns were observed with sociodemographic and health factors which were different when compared to the population at low MVPA level. Despite the slight increase of population meeting the recommended MVPA level, a higher trend of increase was observed at zero MVPA level. Both recommended and low MPVA levels increased their participation by absorbing participants from the low MVPA level. The sociodemographic profile of those with low MVPA was more similar to the population at recommended MVPA than at zero MVPA level. Methodological implications about the combination of light and moderate-intensity PA could be derived. The prevention of decline in actual low MVPA could change the trend of increase in the population at zero MVPA level, particularly among young adults.

Lack of Exercise of "Moderate to Vigorous" Intensity in People with Low Levels of Physical Activity Is a Major Discriminant for Sociodemographic Factors and Morbidity

PubMed Central

Serrano-Sánchez, José A.; Bello-Luján, Luis M.; Auyanet-Batista, Juan M.; Fernández-Rodríguez, María J.; González-Henríquez, Juan J.

2014-01-01

Introduction The aim is to examine the differences between participation at low and zero moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in relation to their trends and associations with known socio-demographic and health factors. We hypothesised that the number of people at zero MVPA level could be rising despite a parallel increase in the population meeting the recommended MVPA level. We also hypothesised that graded associations of sociodemographic and health factors exist across MVPA levels. Methods Two independent population-based samples (n = 4320 [2004] and n = 2176 [1997]), were recruited with a stratified and random sampling procedure and interviewed at home by professional interviewers. The MVPA was assessed by validated questionnaire. The participants were classified into three MVPA levels: zero, low and recommended MVPA. The trend of each MVPA level was analysed with the standardized prevalence ratios. Correlates of low and zero MVPA levels were examined using multinomial logistic regression. Results The population at zero and recommended MVPA levels rose between 1997–2004 by 12% (95% CI, 5–20%) and 7% (95% CI,−4–19%) respectively, while the population at low MVPA level decreased. At zero MVPA level, associative patterns were observed with sociodemographic and health factors which were different when compared to the population at low MVPA level. Conclusions Despite the slight increase of population meeting the recommended MVPA level, a higher trend of increase was observed at zero MVPA level. Both recommended and low MPVA levels increased their participation by absorbing participants from the low MVPA level. The sociodemographic profile of those with low MVPA was more similar to the population at recommended MVPA than at zero MVPA level. Methodological implications about the combination of light and moderate-intensity PA could be derived. The prevention of decline in actual low MVPA could change the trend of increase in the population at zero MVPA level, particularly among young adults. PMID:25522144

Cancers of the Brain and CNS: Global Patterns and Trends in Incidence.

PubMed

Mortazavi, S M J; Mortazavi, S A R; Paknahad, M

2018-03-01

Miranda-Filho et al. in their recently published paper entitled "Cancers of the brain and CNS: global patterns and trends in incidence" provided a global status report of the geographic and temporal variations in the incidence of brain and CNS cancers in different countries across continents worldwide. While the authors confirm the role of genetic risk factors and ionizing radiation exposures, they claimed that no firm conclusion could be drawn about the role of exposure to non-ionizing radiation. The paper authored by Miranda-Filho et al. not only addresses a challenging issue, it can be considered as a good contribution in the field of brain and CNS cancers. However, our correspondence addresses a basic shortcoming of this paper about the role of electromagnetic fields and cancers and provides evidence showing that exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs), at least at high levels and long durations, can increases the risk of cancer.

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

2016-01-01

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Daily MODIS Data Trends of Hurricane-Induced Forest Impact and Early Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramsey, Elijah, III; Spruce, Joseph; Rangoonwala, Amina; Suzuoki, Yukihiro; Smoot, James; Gasser, Jerry; Bannister, Terri

2011-01-01

We studied the use of daily satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors to assess wetland forest damage and recovery from Hurricane Katrina (29 August 2005 landfall). Processed MODIS daily vegetation index (VI) trends were consistent with previously determined impact and recovery patterns provided by the "snapshot" 25 m Landsat Thematic Mapper optical and RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar satellite data. Phenological trends showed high 2004 and 2005 pre-hurricane temporal correspondence within bottomland hardwood forest communities, except during spring green-up, and temporal dissimilarity between these hardwoods and nearby cypress-tupelo swamp forests (Taxodium distichum [baldcypress] and Nyssa aquatica [water tupelo]). MODIS VI trend analyses established that one year after impact, cypress-tupelo and lightly impacted hardwood forests had recovered to near prehurricane conditions. In contrast, canopy recovery lagged in the moderately and severely damaged hardwood forests, possibly reflecting regeneration of pre-hurricane species and stand-level replacement by invasive trees.

Trends in motor neuron disease: association with latitude and air lead levels in Spain.

PubMed

Santurtún, Ana; Villar, Alejandro; Delgado-Alvarado, Manuel; Riancho, Javier

2016-08-01

Motor neuron diseases (MND) are a group of disorders characterized by motor neuron degeneration. Among them, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is by far the most common in adulthood. This paper assesses the trend and geographical pattern in MND incidence in Spain and the possible air lead levels effect on this pathology. To confirm this concept, we performed a retrospective analysis of the deaths due to MND in Spain during 2000 and 2013, determined the geographical differences, and explored the relationship between MND and the air levels of lead. Overall, between 2000 and 2013, 11,355 people died in Spain because of MND. Disease mortality significantly increased in recent years (2007-2013) when compared with the first time of the period. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient also showed a statistically significant positive trend (CC = 0.824, p = 0.0002). Among people over 65 years, mortality rates were higher in Northern provinces. Moreover, we found a significant association of MND mortality with higher air lead levels (CC = 0.457, p = 0.01). Our study confirms that MND mortality is increasing in Spain, with a significant latitude gradient, which suggests an important role of environmental exposures. This ecological study suggests that air lead levels may be implicated in ALS pathogenesis.

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

Longitudinal analysis of dietary patterns in Chinese adults from 1991 to 2009.

PubMed

Batis, Carolina; Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Mendez, Michelle A; Adair, Linda; Popkin, Barry

2014-04-28

In the present study, we aimed to identify the changes or stability in the structure of dietary patterns and tracking, trends and factors related to the adherence to these dietary patterns in China from 1991 to 2009. We analysed dietary data collected during seven waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey and included 9253 adults with complete dietary data for three or more waves. Dietary intake assessment was carried out over a 3 d period with 24 h recalls and a household food inventory. Using factor analysis in each wave, we found that the structure of the two dietary patterns identified remained stable over the studied period. The traditional southern dietary pattern was characterised by high intakes of rice, fresh leafy vegetables, low-fat red meat, pork, organ meats, poultry and fish/seafood and low intakes of wheat flour and maize/coarse grains and the modern high-wheat dietary pattern was characterised by high intakes of wheat buns/breads, cakes/cookies/pastries, deep-fried wheat, nuts/seeds, starchy root/tuber products, fruits, eggs/egg products, soya milk, animal-based milk and instant noodles/frozen dumplings. Temporal tracking (maintenance of a relative position over time) was higher for the traditional southern dietary pattern, whereas adherence to the modern high-wheat dietary pattern had an upward trend over time. Higher income, education and urbanicity levels were positively associated with both the dietary patterns, but the association became weaker in the later years. These results suggest that even in the context of rapid economic changes in China, the way people chose to combine their foods remained relatively stable. However, the increasing popularity of the modern high-wheat dietary pattern, a pattern associated with several energy-dense foods, is a cause of concern.

Monitoring activity patterns and trends of older adults.

PubMed

Virone, G; Sixsmith, A

2008-01-01

This paper presents a pattern mining model developed for the continuous monitoring of high level activities and home-based behaviors for functional and cognitive status assessment with ambient assisted living systems such as in the EU-funded SOPRANO project. Motivating older people to engage in regular physical exercise is a key task of SOPRANO to improve health status and executive functions. A case study has been elaborated through software simulations to show how physical everyday life activity such as walking or sitting could be assessed and controlled for a better health lifestyle using the model.

Patterns of Early Childhood, Elementary, and Middle-Level Social Studies Teaching: An Interpretation of Illinois Social Studies Teachers' Practices and Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucey, Thomas A.; Shifflet, Rena A.; Weilbacher, Gary A.

2014-01-01

Using data from a national social studies survey, the authors examined instructional trends among Illinois elementary and middle school social studies teachers. The authors found that teachers preferred whole-group and teacher-centered instructional strategies over more active, student-centered methods. While surveyed teachers predominately…

Education Pays, 2013: The Benefits of Higher Education for Individuals and Society. Trends in Higher Education Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer; Payea, Kathleen

2013-01-01

This report documents differences in the earnings and employment patterns of U.S. adults with different levels of education. It also compares health-related behaviors, reliance on public assistance programs, civic participation, and indicators of the well-being of the next generation. Financial benefits are easier to document than nonpecuniary…

Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers in U.S. Meat and Poultry: Levels, Congener Patterns, and Temporal Trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Statistical surveys for dioxin residues in domestic meat and poultry were conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2002 and again in 2008. Because polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are also found in animal products and because the production of PentaBDE and OctaBDE formulations in th...

We Are in This Together: Dyadic Patterns of Self-Esteem Change in Late-Life Couples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagner, Jenny; Voelkle, Manuel C.; Hoppmann, Christiane A.; Luszcz, Mary A.; Gerstorf, Denis

2018-01-01

Lifespan theoretical notions have long acknowledged that regulative capacities of the self are relatively robust well into old age. This general trend notwithstanding, people often differ substantially throughout life in their levels of and change trajectories in self-esteem. One prime contributing factor may be perceptions of social inclusion.…

Federal Funds in Nonmetro Areas: Patterns and Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reid, J. Norman; Whitehead, Eleanor

Federal funds to rural areas and small towns grew more rapidly in 1976-79 (the most recent data available for analysis) than Federal funding to metropolitan areas, but were still 10% less than the 1979 average. Nonmetro Federal funding per capita reached $1,994 (87% of the metro level). The South received $172 billion in Federal funds, more than…

Application of urban neighborhoods in understanding of local level electricity consumption patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy Chowdhury, P. K.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2017-12-01

Aggregated national or regional level electricity consumption data fail to capture the spatial variation in consumption, a function of location, climate, topography, and local economics. Spatial monitoring of electricity usage patterns helps to understand derivers of location specific consumption behavior and develop models to cater to the consumer needs, plan efficiency measures, identify settled areas lacking access, and allows for future planning through assessing requirements. Developed countries have started to deploy sensor systems such as smart meters to gather information on local level consumption patterns, but such infrastructure is virtually nonexistent in developing nations, resulting in serious dearth of reliable data for planners and policy makers. Remote sensing of artificial nighttime lights from human settlements have proven useful to study electricity consumptions from global to regional scales, however, local level studies remain scarce. Using the differences in spatial characteristics among different urban neighborhoods such as industrial, commercial and residential, observable through very high resolution day time satellite images (<0.5 meter), formal urban neighborhoods have been generated through texture analysis. In this study, we explore the applicability of these urban neighborhoods in understanding local level electricity consumption patterns through exploring possible correlations between the spatial characteristics of these neighborhoods, associated general economic activities, and corresponding VIIRS day-night band (DNB) nighttime lights observations, which we use as a proxy for electricity consumption in the absence of ground level consumption data. The overall trends observed through this analysis provides useful explanations helping in understanding of broad electricity consumption patterns in urban areas lacking ground level observations. This study thus highlights possible application of remote sensing data driven methods in providing novel insights into local level socio-economic patterns that were hitherto undetected due to lack of ground data.

Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

PubMed

Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2013-06-01

To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A global compilation of coral sea-level benchmarks: Implications and new challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina-Elizalde, Martín

2013-01-01

I present a quality-controlled compilation of sea-level data from U-Th dated corals, encompassing 30 studies of 13 locations around the world. The compilation contains relative sea level (RSL) data from each location based on both conventional and open-system U-Th ages. I have applied a commonly used age quality control criterion based on the initial 234U/238U activity ratios of corals in order to select reliable ages and to reconstruct sea level histories for the last 150,000 yr. This analysis reveals scatter of RSL estimates among coeval coral benchmarks both within individual locations and between locations, particularly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a and the glacial inception following the last interglacial. The character of data scatter during these time intervals imply that uncertainties still exist regarding tectonics, glacio-isostacy, U-series dating, and/or coral position. To elucidate robust underlying patterns, with confidence limits, I performed a Monte Carlo-style statistical analysis of the compiled coral data considering appropriate age and sea-level uncertainties. By its nature, such an analysis has the tendency to smooth/obscure millennial-scale (and finer) details that may be important in individual datasets, and favour the major underlying patterns that are supported by all datasets. This statistical analysis is thus functional to illustrate major trends that are statistically robust ('what we know'), trends that are suggested but still are supported by few data ('what we might know, subject to addition of more supporting data and improved corrections'), and which patterns/data are clear outliers ('unlikely to be realistic given the rest of the global data and possibly needing further adjustments'). Prior to the last glacial maximum and with the possible exception of the 130-120 ka period, available coral data generally have insufficient temporal resolution and unexplained scatter, which hinders identification of a well-defined pattern with usefully narrow confidence limits. This analysis thus provides a framework that objectively identifies critical targets for new data collection, improved corrections, and integration of coral data with independent, stratigraphically continuous methods of sea-level reconstruction.

[Landscape pattern and its vulnerability of Nansihu Lake basin during 1980-2015.

PubMed

Xui, Yan; Sun, Xiao Yin; Zhang, Da Zhi; Shan, Rui Feng; Liu, Fei

2018-02-01

Landscape pattern and its vulnerability have direct impacts on ecological environment in the basin. In order to protect the ecological security in Nansihu Lake basin, we analyzed the changes of landscape pattern based on seven sets of land use data (1980-2015), with landscape adaptability index (LAI) and landscape sensitivity index (LSI) being used to build the landscape vulnerability index (LVI). The spatial distribution and changes of LVI were analyzed. Results showed that the percentage of arable land areas decreased by 4.6% and construction land areas increased by 39.7% from 1980 to 2015. Other land use types showed fluctuating changes. The areas of forest land, grassland, and unused land decreased while water area increased. The arable land was the dominant land use type from 1980 to 2015 in this area. The degree of fragmentation of arable land and water area in the basin increased, whereas other land use types decreased. The fragmentation of whole basin decreased, but connectivity among landscape types enhanced. The irregularity and complexity of landscape pattern decreased, but diversity and evenness of landscape pattern displayed an increasing trend. With respect to LVI in different periods, the eastern part of the basin was higher than the western part, while the northern part was higher than the southern part. The spatial distribution of LVI was related to topography, layout of landscape types and change of land use. The LVI of Nansihu Lake basin showed a decline trend during 1980-2015. In the eastern part of the basin, higher level of LVI gradually dispersed and was replaced by lower level. In the northwest, the recovery of LVI was obvious. In the south and southwest parts, LVI was consistently low.

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians.

PubMed

Antero-Jacquemin, Juliana da Silva; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-08-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer-Olympians and supercentenarians-under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic "probabilistic barrier" limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic "barrier" forecast. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

MyoD and Myf6 gene expression patterns in skeletal muscle during embryonic and posthatch development in the domestic duck (Anas platyrhynchos domestica).

PubMed

Li, H; Zhu, C; Tao, Z; Xu, W; Song, W; Hu, Y; Zhu, W; Song, C

2014-06-01

The MyoD and Myf6 genes, which are muscle regulatory factors (MRFs), play major roles in muscle growth and development and initiate muscle fibre formation via the regulation of muscle-specific gene translation. Therefore, MyoD and Myf6 are potential candidate genes for meat production traits in animals and poultry. The objective of this study was to evaluate MyoD and Myf6 gene expression patterns in the skeletal muscle during early developmental stage of ducks. Gene expression levels were detected using the quantitative RT-PCR method in the breast muscle (BM) and leg muscle (LM) at embryonic days 13, 17, 21, 25, 27, as well as at 1 week posthatching in Gaoyou and Jinding ducks (Anas platyrhynchos domestica). The MyoD and Myf6 gene profiles in the two duck breeds were consistent during early development, and MyoD gene expression showed a 'wave' trend in BM and an approximate 'anti-√' trend in LM. Myf6 gene expression in BM showed the highest level at embryonic day 21, which subsequently decreased, although remained relatively high, while levels at embryonic days 13, 17 and 21 were higher in LM. The results of correlation analysis showed that MyoD and Myf6 gene expression levels were more strongly correlated in LM than in BM in both duck breeds. These results indicated that different expression patterns of the MyoD and Myf6 genes in BM and LM may be related to muscle development and differentiation, suggesting that MyoD and Myf6 are integral to skeletal muscle development. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

2016-09-01

Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, A. A.

2017-12-01

During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic indicates a dominant mass contribution, especially in the Greenland, Norwegian, and Barents Seas sector.

Creating Situational Awareness in Spacecraft Operations with the Machine Learning Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.

2016-09-01

This paper presents a machine learning approach for the situational awareness capability in spacecraft operations. There are two types of time dependent data patterns for spacecraft datasets: the absolute time pattern (ATP) and the relative time pattern (RTP). The machine learning captures the data patterns of the satellite datasets through the data training during the normal operations, which is represented by its time dependent trend. The data monitoring compares the values of the incoming data with the predictions of machine learning algorithm, which can detect any meaningful changes to a dataset above the noise level. If the difference between the value of incoming telemetry and the machine learning prediction are larger than the threshold defined by the standard deviation of datasets, it could indicate the potential anomaly that may need special attention. The application of the machine-learning approach to the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on Japanese Himawari spacecraft series is presented, which has the same configuration as the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on Geostationary Environment Operational Satellite (GOES) R series. The time dependent trends generated by the data-training algorithm are in excellent agreement with the datasets. The standard deviation in the time dependent trend provides a metric for measuring the data quality, which is particularly useful in evaluating the detector quality for both AHI and ABI with multiple detectors in each channel. The machine-learning approach creates the situational awareness capability, and enables engineers to handle the huge data volume that would have been impossible with the existing approach, and it leads to significant advances to more dynamic, proactive, and autonomous spacecraft operations.

Sea-level variability in the Common Era along the Atlantic coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, A.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.; Little, C. M.; Engelhart, S. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

Common Era relative sea-level trends on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean vary through time and across space as a result of simultaneous global (basin-wide)-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. A growing suite of relative sea-level reconstructions derived from dated salt-marsh (and mangrove) sediment on the Atlantic coast of North America provides an opportunity to quantify the contributions from several physical processes to Common Era sea-level trends. In particular, this coastline is susceptible to relative sea-level changes caused by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and redistribution of existing ocean mass on timescales of days to centuries by evolving patterns and strengths of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Using a case study from Newfoundland, Canada, we demonstrate how high-resolution (decadal- and decimeter-scale) relative sea level reconstructions are produced from sequences of salt-marsh sediment that were deposited under conditions of long-term sea-level rise. We use an expanded database of Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions from the Atlantic coast of North America that spans locations from Newfoundland to the southern Florida to identify spatial and temporal patterns of change. A spatio-temporal statistical model enables us to decompose each reconstruction (with uncertainty) into contributions from global-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. This analysis shows that spatially-variable glacio-isostatic adjustment was the primary driver of sea-level change. The global signal is dominated by the onset of anthropogenic sea-level rise in the late 19th century, which caused the 20th century to experience a faster rate of rise than any of the preceding 26 centuries. Differentiating between regional non-linear and local-scale processes is a challenging using an inherently sparse network of reconstructions. However, we show that sites south of Cape Hatteras have sea-level histories distinct to those from more northward locations and propose that this spatial pattern is best explained by dynamic processes that could include century-scale NAO-driven circulation changes. Complementary paleoenvironmental reconstructions from diverse proxies support this interpretation.

Evidence for acid-precipitation-induced trends in stream chemistry at hydrologic bench-mark stations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Richard A.; Alexander, Richard B.

1983-01-01

Ten- to 15-year water-quality records from a network of headwater sampling stations show small declines in stream sulfate concentrations at stations in the northeastern quarter of the Nation and small increases in sulfate at most southeastern and western sites. The regional pattern of stream sulfate trends is similar to that reported for trends in S02 emissions to the atmosphere during the same period. Trends in the ratio of alkalinity to total major cation concentrations at the stations follow an inverse pattern of small increases in the Northeast and small, but widespread decreases elsewhere. The undeveloped nature of the sampled basins and the magnitude and direction of observed changes in relation to SO2 emissions support the hypothesis that the observed patterns in water quality trends reflect regional changes in the rates of acid deposition.

Detection of Practice Pattern Trends through Natural Language Processing of Clinical Narratives and Biomedical Literature

PubMed Central

Chen, Elizabeth S.; Stetson, Peter D.; Lussier, Yves A.; Markatou, Marianthi; Hripcsak, George; Friedman, Carol

2007-01-01

Clinical knowledge, best evidence, and practice patterns evolve over time. The ability to track these changes and study practice trends may be valuable for performance measurement and quality improvement efforts. The goal of this study was to assess the feasibility and validity of methods to generate and compare trends in biomedical literature and clinical narrative. We focused on the challenge of detecting trends in medication usage over time for two diseases: HIV/AIDS and asthma. Information about disease-specific medications in published randomized control trials and discharge summaries at New York-Presbyterian Hospital over a ten-year period were extracted using Natural Language Processing. This paper reports on the ability of our semi-automated process to discover disease-drug practice pattern trends and interpretation of findings across the biomedical and clinical text sources. PMID:18693810

Seasonality of selected surface water constituents in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida.

PubMed

Qian, Y; Migliaccio, K W; Wan, Y; Li, Y C; Chin, D

2007-01-01

Seasonality is often the major exogenous effect that must be compensated for or removed to discern trends in water quality. Our objective was to provide a methodological example of trend analysis using water quality data with seasonality. Selected water quality constituents from 1979 to 2004 at three monitoring stations in southern Florida were evaluated for seasonality. The seasonal patterns of flow-weighted and log-transformed concentrations were identified by applying side-by-side boxplots and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p < 0.05). Seasonal and annual trends were determined by trend analysis (Seasonal Kendall or Tobit procedure) using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Estimate TREND (ESTREND) program. Major water quality indicators (specific conductivity, turbidity, color, and chloride), except for turbidity at Station C24S49, exhibited significant seasonal patterns. Almost all nutrient species (NO(2)-N, NH(4)-N, total Kjeldahl N, PO(4)-P, and total P) had an identical seasonal pattern of concentrations significantly greater in the wet than in the dry season. Some water quality constituents were observed to exhibit significant annual or seasonal trends. In some cases, the overall annual trend was insignificant while opposing trends were present in different seasons. By evaluating seasonal trends separately from all data, constituents can be assessed providing a more accurate interpretation of water quality trends.

Percolator: Scalable Pattern Discovery in Dynamic Graphs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Choudhury, Sutanay; Purohit, Sumit; Lin, Peng

We demonstrate Percolator, a distributed system for graph pattern discovery in dynamic graphs. In contrast to conventional mining systems, Percolator advocates efficient pattern mining schemes that (1) support pattern detection with keywords; (2) integrate incremental and parallel pattern mining; and (3) support analytical queries such as trend analysis. The core idea of Percolator is to dynamically decide and verify a small fraction of patterns and their in- stances that must be inspected in response to buffered updates in dynamic graphs, with a total mining cost independent of graph size. We demonstrate a) the feasibility of incremental pattern mining by walkingmore » through each component of Percolator, b) the efficiency and scalability of Percolator over the sheer size of real-world dynamic graphs, and c) how the user-friendly GUI of Percolator inter- acts with users to support keyword-based queries that detect, browse and inspect trending patterns. We also demonstrate two user cases of Percolator, in social media trend analysis and academic collaboration analysis, respectively.« less

Urban Mobility Analysis on Efficiency and Sustainability by Means of Transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branea, Ana-Maria; Gaman, Marius; Badescu, Stefana

2017-10-01

Patterns of urban land use are inherently linked to the predominantly used means of transportation, both generating and being generated themselves. While each mode of transportation shapes a different development typology a clear understanding of their interrelations and dependencies is needed in order to create a comprehensive mobility strategy. The study proposes a 15-criteria analysis framework developed to identify and quantify the main modes of transportation’s key aspects. The analysis framework was applied to a yearlong research on Timisoara, Romania, comprising hard, quantitative data, digital simulations and mobility pattern analysis and soft data, quality assessment and perceived needs and satisfaction levels. The research was carried out in clear opposition to the national trend of official mobility strategies focusing on accommodating increased levels of car traffic on the underdeveloped existing roads infrastructure. By analysing the efficiency and sustainability of all four main modes of transportation the results offer a holistic comprehensive view. While, despite current practices, no mobility strategy can focus on a single means of transportation, the article will only present in detail the research on cycling, infrastructure and use, as it is the most underdeveloped and least discussed at the national level and proven through our study to be the most efficient for a city of Timisoara’s size and characteristics. By identifying a clear link between urban land use patterns, infrastructure quality and perceptions and the most efficient means of transportation for each particular city type mobility strategies could shift the trend of urban development towards a more sustainable one.

Spatial patterns of trends and teleconnections in climate indices relevant for Mexican maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewes, C. F.

2013-05-01

This study contributes to the discussion of climate trends in Mexico and the influence of hemispheric-scale variability patterns over the period 1950-2008. Its uniqueness is three-fold. First, the choice of climate indices under scrutiny aims to represent an agro-climatic perspective, geared towards maize in particular because of the major role this crop plays in Mexico's culture, diet, and economy. Second, the spatial resolution and coverage of these findings can be useful for interpretations at the local level (i.e. district or state), yet keeping the broad national picture in perspective. This should be particularly useful to agro-climate forecasting, assessment of impacts, and/or policy development. Third, this study uncovers a dominance of the North Atlantic over the Pacific Ocean in respect to remote influences on trend patterns in Mexico. Trends in precipitation show that east of the central highlands, the rainy season is starting later and becoming drier. The same is occurring along the Pacific coastal plain, but there an increase in extreme events is also observed. For south-central Mexico and the Yucatán, rains not only are starting earlier but intensity and frequency of extreme events are also increasing. In some of these areas dry days are becoming more frequent. Trends in temperature suggest that highlands are warming at faster rates than lowlands, which in some places are actually cooling. Warming in the fall-winter growing season is more pronounced than in the spring-summer growing season. On the other hand, cold spells during mid-summer are becoming more frequent over the highlands. Connections were found between these trends and large-scale variability patterns, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interannual variability related to ENSO and the PNA, and trends towards more Niño-like conditions, are associated with increasing precipitation over the Yucatán and a few areas along the southern Pacific coast, and with more dry days - though accompanied by stronger extreme precipitation events - over southwestern Mexico. They are also associated with a delaying start of the rainy season in a narrow area just east of the south-central highlands and higher risk of frost during late-winter up in the highlands. Increasing Caribbean SSTs are associated with increasing temperatures over the mainland and stronger precipitation over the Yucatán. Variability in the NAO and its trend towards more positive phases is associated the drying trend in central Mexico, intensification of precipitation over the northwest, and also increasing temperatures over the entire mainland in both the warm and cold growing seasons. The atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic Ocean and its increasing tropical SSTs, have a larger and broader participation in Mexican trends than is noted with the Pacific counterparts.

Greater adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern is associated with improved plasma lipid profile: the Aragon Health Workers Study cohort.

PubMed

Peñalvo, José L; Oliva, Belén; Sotos-Prieto, Mercedes; Uzhova, Irina; Moreno-Franco, Belén; León-Latre, Montserrat; Ordovás, José María

2015-04-01

There is wide recognition of the importance of healthy eating in cardiovascular health promotion. The purpose of this study was to identify the main dietary patterns among a Spanish population, and to determine their relationship with plasma lipid profiles. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of data from 1290 participants of the Aragon Workers Health Study cohort. Standardized protocols were used to collect clinical and biochemistry data. Diet was assessed through a food frequency questionnaire, quantifying habitual intake over the past 12 months. The main dietary patterns were identified by factor analysis. The association between adherence to dietary patterns and plasma lipid levels was assessed by linear and logistic regression. Two dietary patterns were identified: a Mediterranean dietary pattern, high in vegetables, fruits, fish, white meat, nuts, and olive oil, and a Western dietary pattern, high in red meat, fast food, dairy, and cereals. Compared with the participants in the lowest quintile of adherence to the Western dietary pattern, those in the highest quintile had 4.6 mg/dL lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (P < .001), 8 mg/dL lower apolipoprotein A1 levels (P = .005) and a greater risk of having decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio = 3.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-7.5; P-trend = .03). Participants adhering to the Mediterranean dietary pattern had 3.3mg/dL higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (P < .001), and a ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol that was 0.43 times lower (P = .043). Adherence to the Mediterranean dietary pattern is associated with improved lipid profile compared with a Western dietary pattern, which was associated with a lower odds of optimal high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in this population. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Anthropometric geography applied to the analysis of socioeconomic disparities: cohort trends and spatial patterns of height and robustness in 20th-century Spain.

PubMed

Camara, Antonio D; Roman, Joan Garcia

2015-11-01

Anthropometrics have been widely used to study the influence of environmental factors on health and nutritional status. In contrast, anthropometric geography has not often been employed to approximate the dynamics of spatial disparities associated with socioeconomic and demographic changes. Spain exhibited intense disparity and change during the middle decades of the 20 th century, with the result that the life courses of the corresponding cohorts were associated with diverse environmental conditions. This was also true of the Spanish territories. This paper presents insights concerning the relationship between socioeconomic changes and living conditions by combining the analysis of cohort trends and the anthropometric cartography of height and physical build. This analysis is conducted for Spanish male cohorts born 1934-1973 that were recorded in the Spanish military statistics. This information is interpreted in light of region-level data on GDP and infant mortality. Our results show an anthropometric convergence across regions that, nevertheless, did not substantially modify the spatial patterns of robustness, featuring primarily robust northeastern regions and weak Central-Southern regions. These patterns persisted until the 1990s (cohorts born during the 1970s). For the most part, anthropometric disparities were associated with socioeconomic disparities, although the former lessened over time to a greater extent than the latter. Interestingly, the various anthropometric indicators utilized here do not point to the same conclusions. Some discrepancies between height and robustness patterns have been found that moderate the statements from the analysis of cohort height alone regarding the level and evolution of living conditions across Spanish regions.

Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

2018-05-01

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C.

Dynamic compositional modeling of pedestrian crash counts on urban roads in Connecticut.

PubMed

Serhiyenko, Volodymyr; Ivan, John N; Ravishanker, Nalini; Islam, Md Saidul

2014-03-01

Uncovering the temporal trend in crash counts provides a good understanding of the context for pedestrian safety. With a rareness of pedestrian crashes it is impossible to investigate monthly temporal effects with an individual segment/intersection level data, thus the time dependence should be derived from the aggregated level data. Most previous studies have used annual data to investigate the differences in pedestrian crashes between different regions or countries in a given year, and/or to look at time trends of fatal pedestrian injuries annually. Use of annual data unfortunately does not provide sufficient information on patterns in time trends or seasonal effects. This paper describes statistical methods uncovering patterns in monthly pedestrian crashes aggregated on urban roads in Connecticut from January 1995 to December 2009. We investigate the temporal behavior of injury severity levels, including fatal (K), severe injury (A), evident minor injury (B), and non-evident possible injury and property damage only (C and O), as proportions of all pedestrian crashes in each month, taking into consideration effects of time trend, seasonal variations and VMT (vehicle miles traveled). This type of dependent multivariate data is characterized by positive components which sum to one, and occurs in several applications in science and engineering. We describe a dynamic framework with vector autoregressions (VAR) for modeling and predicting compositional time series. Combining these predictions with predictions from a univariate statistical model for total crash counts will then enable us to predict pedestrian crash counts with the different injury severity levels. We compare these predictions with those obtained from fitting separate univariate models to time series of crash counts at each injury severity level. We also show that the dynamic models perform better than the corresponding static models. We implement the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach to enable fast Bayesian posterior computation. Taking CO injury severity level as a baseline for the compositional analysis, we conclude that there was a noticeable shift in the proportion of pedestrian crashes from injury severity A to B, while the increase for injury severity K was extremely small over time. This shift to the less severe injury level (from A to B) suggests that the overall safety on urban roads in Connecticut is improving. In January and February, there was some increase in the proportions for levels A and B over the baseline, indicating a seasonal effect. We found evidence that an increase in VMT would result in a decrease of proportions over the baseline for all injury severity levels. Our dynamic model uncovered a decreasing trend in all pedestrian crash counts before April 2005, followed by a noticeable increase and a flattening out until the end of the fitting period. This appears to be largely due to the behavior of injury severity level A pedestrian crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Race and Space in the 1990s: Changes in the Geographic Scale of Racial Residential Segregation, 1990-2000

PubMed Central

Reardon, Sean F.; Farrell, Chad R.; Matthews, Stephen A.; O'Sullivan, David; Bischoff, Kendra; Firebaugh, Glenn

2014-01-01

We use newly developed methods of measuring spatial segregation across a range of spatial scales to assess changes in racial residential segregation patterns in the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas from 1990 to 2000. Our results point to three notable trends in segregation from 1990 to 2000: 1) Hispanic-white and Asian-white segregation levels increased at both micro- and macro-scales; 2) black-white segregation declined at a micro-scale, but was unchanged at a macro-scale; and 3) for all three racial groups and for almost all metropolitan areas, macro-scale segregation accounted for more of the total metropolitan area segregation in 2000 than in 1990. Our examination of the variation in these trends among the metropolitan areas suggests that Hispanic-white and Asian-white segregation changes have been driven largely by increases in macro-scale segregation resulting from the rapid growth of the Hispanic and Asian populations in central cities. The changes in black-white segregation, in contrast, appear to be driven by the continuation of a 30-year trend in declining micro-segregation, coupled with persistent and largely stable patterns of macro-segregation. PMID:19569292

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Bathymetric zonation and diversity gradient of gastropods and bivalves in West Antarctica from the South Shetland Islands to the Bellingshausen Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldea, Cristian; Olabarria, Celia; Troncoso, Jesús S.

2008-03-01

Depth-related zonation and diversity patterns are important topics in the study of deep-sea fauna, at both species and assemblage levels. These patterns may be attributed to complex and combined physical and/or biological factors. The lack of information about the West Antarctic deep sea is an important handicap to understanding the global-scale benthic diversity patterns. Detailed studies of the bathymetric distributions and diversity of deep-sea species in the Antarctic are needed to elucidate the factors contributing to global-scale benthic patterns. This study, based on a large data set, examined the bathymetric distribution, patterns of zonation and diversity-depth trends of gastropods and bivalves in West Antarctica, from the South Shetland Islands to the Bellingshausen Sea, a very poorly known area. A total of 647 individuals of gastropods belonging to 82 species and a total of 2934 individuals of bivalves belonging to 52 species were collected. Most gastropods showed discrete depth distributions, whereas most bivalves showed broader depth ranges. Replacement of species with depth was more gradual for bivalves than gastropods. Nevertheless, three bathymetric boundaries could be recognized: (1) a continental shelf zone from 0 to 400 m with a gradual rate of succession, (2) an upper slope zone from 400 to 800 m and (3) a lower slope zone from 800 to 2000 m, extending to 3300 m for bivalves. Diversity patterns were complex for both groups with no significant trends with depth.

Structural and tectonic setting of the Charleston, South Carolina, region: Evidence from the Tertiary stratigraphic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weems, R.E.; Lewis, W.C.

2002-01-01

Eleven upper Eocene through Pliocene stratigraphic units occur in the subsurface of the region surrounding Charleston, South Carolina. These units contain a wealth of information concerning the long-term tectonic and structural setting of that area. These stratigraphic units have a mosaic pattern of distribution, rather than a simple layered pattern, because deposition, erosion, and tectonic warping have interacted in a complex manner through time. By generating separate structure-contour maps for the base of each stratigraphic unit, an estimate of the original basal surface of each unit can be reconstructed over wide areas. Changes in sea level over geologic time generate patterns of deposition and erosion that are geographically unique for the time of each transgression. Such patterns fail to persist when compared sequentially over time. In some areas, however, there has been persistent, repetitive net downward of upward movement over the past 34 m.y. These repetitive patterns of persistent motion are most readily attributable to tectonism. The spatial pattern of these high and low areas is complex, but it appears to correlate well with known tectonic features of the region. This correlation suggests that the tectonic setting of the Charleston region is controlled by scissors-like compression on a crustal block located between the north-trending Adams Run fault and the northwest-trending Charleston fault. Tectonism is localized in the Charleston region because it lies within a discrete hinge zone that accommodates structural movement between the Cape Fear arch and the Southeast Georgia embayment.

Longitudinal Analysis of Dietary Patterns in Chinese Adults from 1991 to 2009

PubMed Central

Batis, Carolina; Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Mendez, Michelle A.; Adair, Linda; Popkin, Barry

2013-01-01

Our aims were to identify the changes or stability in the structure of dietary patterns and the tracking, trends and factors related to the adherence of these patterns in China from 1991 to 2009. We used seven waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey and included 9,253 adults with ≥3 waves complete. Diet was measured over a 3-day period with 24-hr recalls and a household food inventory. Using factor analysis in each wave we found that the structure of the two dietary patterns identified, remained stable over the studied period. The traditional southern pattern was characterized by high intake of rice, fresh leafy vegetables, low-fat red meat, pork, organ meats, poultry and fish/seafood and low intakes of wheat flour, corn/coarse grains; and the modern high-wheat pattern was characterized by high intake of wheat buns/breads, cakes/cookies/pastries, deep-fried wheat, nuts/seeds, starchy roots/tubers products, fruits, eggs/eggs products, soy milk, animal-based milk and instant noodles/frozen dumplings. Temporal tracking (maintenance of a relative position over time) was higher for the traditional southern, whereas adherence to the modern high-wheat had an upward trend over time. Higher income, education and urbanicity level were positively associated with both dietary patterns, but the association became smaller in the later years. These results suggest that even in the context of rapid economic changes in China; the way people chose to combine their foods remained relatively stable. However, the increasing popularity of the modern high-wheat pattern, a pattern associated with several energy-dense foods is cause of concern. PMID:24331247

Cause-specific sickness absence trends by occupational class and industrial sector in the context of recent labour market changes: a Finnish panel data study.

PubMed

Leinonen, Taina; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Solovieva, Svetlana

2018-04-07

We aimed to provide previously unestablished information on population-based differences in cause-specific sickness absence trends between occupational classes and further between four large industrial sectors within the different occupational classes while controlling for other socioeconomic factors and employment patterns. We focused on the period 2005-2013, during which the labour market underwent large economic and structural changes in many countries. Register-based panel data study. Large representative datasets on Finnish wage earners aged 25-59 years. Annual risk of sickness absence (>10 working days) based on repeated logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2013, the proportion of employees with sickness absence decreased. Occupational class differences in sickness absence trends varied by disease group. Overall, the decrease in absences was smallest among lower non-manual employees. Sickness absence levels were highest in the health and social work sector and in the manufacturing sector within the non-manual and manual classes, respectively. Absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily during the peak of the economic recession in 2009, particularly in the manufacturing sector within the manual class. The decrease in absences due to musculoskeletal diseases was smallest in the trade sector within the lower occupational classes. Overall, education, income and employment patterns partly explained the differences in the absence levels, but not in the trends. We found a complex interplay between the associations of occupational class and industrial sector with sickness absence trends. During the economic recession, absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily in a segment of wage earners who were known to have been hit hard by the recession. However, the trend differences were not explained by the measured structural changes in the characteristics of the study population. Both occupational class and industrial sector should be taken into account when tackling problems of work disability. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Decrease in tropospheric O3 levels in the Northern Hemisphere observed by IASI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wespes, Catherine; Hurtmans, Daniel; Clerbaux, Cathy; Boynard, Anne; Coheur, Pierre-François

2018-05-01

In this study, we describe the recent changes in the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), onboard the Metop satellite, during the first 9 years of operation (January 2008 to May 2017). Using appropriate multivariate regression methods, we differentiate significant linear trends from other sources of O3 variations captured by IASI. The geographical patterns of the adjusted O3 trends are provided and discussed on the global scale. Given the large contribution of the natural variability in comparison with that of the trend (25-85 % vs. 15-50 %, respectively) to the total O3 variations, we estimate that additional years of IASI measurements are generally required to detect the estimated O3 trends with high precision. Globally, additional 6 months to 6 years of measurements, depending on the regions and the seasons, are needed to detect a trend of |5| DU decade-1. An exception is interestingly found during summer at mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH; ˜ 40 to ˜ 75° N), where the large absolute fitted trend values (˜ |0.5| DU yr-1 on average) combined with the small model residuals (˜ 10 %) allow for detection of a band-like pattern of significant negative trends. Despite no consensus in terms of tropospheric O3 trends having been reached from the available independent datasets (UV or IR satellites, O3 sondes, aircrafts, ground-based measurements, etc.) for the reasons that are discussed in the text, this finding is consistent with the reported decrease in O3 precursor emissions in recent years, especially in Europe and USA. The influence of continental pollution on that latitudinal band is further investigated and supported by the analysis of the O3-CO relationship (in terms of correlation coefficient, regression slope and covariance) that we found to be the strongest at northern midlatitudes in summer.

Beyond trend analysis: How a modified breakpoint analysis enhances knowledge of agricultural production after Zimbabwe's fast track land reform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hentze, Konrad; Thonfeld, Frank; Menz, Gunter

2017-10-01

In the discourse on land reform assessments, a significant lack of spatial and time-series data has been identified, especially with respect to Zimbabwe's ;Fast-Track Land Reform Programme; (FTLRP). At the same time, interest persists among land use change scientists to evaluate causes of land use change and therefore to increase the explanatory power of remote sensing products. This study recognizes these demands and aims to provide input on both levels: Evaluating the potential of satellite remote sensing time-series to answer questions which evolved after intensive land redistribution efforts in Zimbabwe; and investigating how time-series analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be enhanced to provide information on land reform induced land use change. To achieve this, two time-series methods are applied to MODIS NDVI data: Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA) and Breakpoint Analysis for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST). In our first analysis, a link of agricultural productivity trends to different land tenure regimes shows that regional clustering of trends is more dominant than a relationship between tenure and trend with a slightly negative slope for all regimes. We demonstrate that clusters of strong negative and positive productivity trends are results of changing irrigation patterns. To locate emerging and fallow irrigation schemes in semi-arid Zimbabwe, a new multi-method approach is developed which allows to map changes from bimodal seasonal phenological patterns to unimodal and vice versa. With an enhanced breakpoint analysis through the combination of STA and BFAST, we are able to provide a technique that can be applied on large scale to map status and development of highly productive cropping systems, which are key for food production, national export and local employment. We therefore conclude that the combination of existing and accessible time-series analysis methods: is able to achieve both: overcoming demonstrated limitations of MODIS based trend analysis and enhancing knowledge of Zimbabwe's FTLRP.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

PubMed

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

PubMed

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend in the south. The downward pattern observed for cohorts born after 1920-1930 in northern, western, and southern regions suggests more favourable trends in coming years, in contrast to the eastern countries where birth-cohort pattern remains upward.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Linguistic Pattern Analysis of Misspellings of Typically Developing Writers in Grades 1 to 9

PubMed Central

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Silliman, Elaine R.; Berninger, Virginia W.; Dow, Michael

2012-01-01

Purpose A mixed methods approach, evaluating triple word form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Method Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in grades 1–9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Results Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between grades 4–5. Similar error types were noted across age groups but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Conclusions Triple word-form theory was supported. By grade 1, orthographic errors predominated and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects non-linear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling. PMID:22473834

Role of moisture transport for Central American precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

María Durán-Quesada, Ana; Gimeno, Luis; Amador, Jorge

2017-02-01

A climatology of moisture sources linked with Central American precipitation was computed based upon Lagrangian trajectories for the analysis period 1980-2013. The response of the annual cycle of precipitation in terms of moisture supply from the sources was analysed. Regional precipitation patterns are mostly driven by moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea (CS). Moisture supply from the eastern tropical Pacific (ETPac) and northern South America (NSA) exhibits a strong seasonal pattern but weaker compared to CS. The regional distribution of rainfall is largely influenced by a local signal associated with surface fluxes during the first part of the rainy season, whereas large-scale dynamics forces rainfall during the second part of the rainy season. The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) and the Chocó Jet (CJ) are the main conveyors of regional moisture, being key to define the seasonality of large-scale forced rainfall. Therefore, interannual variability of rainfall is highly dependent of the regional LLJs to the atmospheric variability modes. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to be the dominant mode affecting moisture supply for Central American precipitation via the modulation of regional phenomena. Evaporative sources show opposite anomaly patterns during warm and cold ENSO phases, as a result of the strengthening and weakening, respectively, of the CLLJ during the summer months. Trends in both moisture supply and precipitation over the last three decades were computed, results suggest that precipitation trends are not homogeneous for Central America. Trends in moisture supply from the sources identified show a marked north-south seesaw, with an increasing supply from the CS Sea to northern Central America. Long-term trends in moisture supply are larger for the transition months (March and October). This might have important implications given that any changes in the conditions seen during the transition to the rainy season may induce stronger precipitation trends.

Walking, cycling and driving to work in the English and Welsh 2011 census: trends, socio-economic patterning and relevance to travel behaviour in general.

PubMed

Goodman, Anna

2013-01-01

Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971-2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002-2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (-1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (-0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy for broader travel patterns, enhancing the value of the census in characterising background trends and evaluating interventions.

Walking, Cycling and Driving to Work in the English and Welsh 2011 Census: Trends, Socio-Economic Patterning and Relevance to Travel Behaviour in General

PubMed Central

Goodman, Anna

2013-01-01

Objectives Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. Methods 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971–2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002–2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Results Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (−1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (−0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). Conclusions England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy for broader travel patterns, enhancing the value of the census in characterising background trends and evaluating interventions. PMID:23990990

Identifying food deserts and swamps based on relative healthy food access: a spatio-temporal Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew

2015-12-30

Obesity and other adverse health outcomes are influenced by individual- and neighbourhood-scale risk factors, including the food environment. At the small-area scale, past research has analysed spatial patterns of food environments for one time period, overlooking how food environments change over time. Further, past research has infrequently analysed relative healthy food access (RHFA), a measure that is more representative of food purchasing and consumption behaviours than absolute outlet density. This research applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of RHFA in the Region of Waterloo, Canada, from 2011 to 2014 at the small-area level. RHFA is calculated as the proportion of healthy food outlets (healthy outlets/healthy + unhealthy outlets) within 4-km from each small-area. This model measures spatial autocorrelation of RHFA, temporal trend of RHFA for the study region, and spatio-temporal trends of RHFA for small-areas. For the study region, a significant decreasing trend in RHFA is observed (-0.024), suggesting that food swamps have become more prevalent during the study period. For small-areas, significant decreasing temporal trends in RHFA were observed for all small-areas. Specific small-areas located in south Waterloo, north Kitchener, and southeast Cambridge exhibited the steepest decreasing spatio-temporal trends and are classified as spatio-temporal food swamps. This research demonstrates a Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach to analyse RHFA at the small-area scale. Results suggest that food swamps are more prevalent than food deserts in the Region of Waterloo. Analysing spatio-temporal trends of RHFA improves understanding of local food environment, highlighting specific small-areas where policies should be targeted to increase RHFA and reduce risk factors of adverse health outcomes such as obesity.

Shifts in patterns and consumption of beverages between 1965 and 2002.

PubMed

Duffey, Kiyah J; Popkin, Barry M

2007-11-01

Beverage patterning may play a role in partially explaining the rising rates of obesity in the United States, yet little work on overall trends and patterns exits. Our objective was to examine trends and patterns of beverage consumption among U.S. adults. We used data from the nationally representative Nationwide Food Consumption Surveys (1965, 1977 to 1978) and the National Health and Nutrition Surveys (1988 to 1994, 1999 to 2002). To examine trends we determined percent consuming and per capita and per consumer caloric intake from all beverages. We used cluster analysis to determine year-specific beverage patterns in 1977 and 2002. The percentage of calories from beverages significantly increased between 1965 (11.8%), 1977 (14.2%), 1988 (18.5%), and 2002 (21.0%); this represents an overall increase of 222 calories per person per day from beverages, resulting largely from increased intake of calorically sweetened beverages. Beverage patterns in 2002 were more complex than in 1977 and were dominated by a greater number of beverages, reflecting the increase in alcohol, soda, and diet beverages. Calories from beverages increased substantially from 1965 to 2002, providing a considerable source of daily calories. Given the upward trends in calorically sweetened, nutrient-deficient beverages and the shifts in overall beverage patterns, addressing beverage intake is a salient issue for adults.

Trends in mental health inequalities in England during a period of recession, austerity and welfare reform 2004 to 2013.

PubMed

Barr, Ben; Kinderman, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret

2015-12-01

Several indicators of population mental health in the UK have deteriorated since the financial crisis, during a period when a number of welfare reforms and austerity measures have been implemented. We do not know which groups have been most affected by these trends or the extent to which recent economic trends or recent policies have contributed to them. We use data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey to investigate trends in self reported mental health problems by socioeconomic group and employment status in England between 2004 and 2013. We then use panel regression models to investigate the association between local trends in mental health problems and local trends in unemployment and wages to investigate the extent to which these explain increases in mental health problems during this time. We found that the trend in the prevalence of people reporting mental health problems increased significantly more between 2009 and 2013 compared to the previous trends. This increase was greatest amongst people with low levels of education and inequalities widened. The gap in prevalence between low and high educated groups widened by 1.29 percentage points for women (95% CI: 0.50 to 2.08) and 1.36 percentage points for men (95% CI: 0.31 to 2.42) between 2009 and 2013. Trends in unemployment and wages only partly explained these recent increases in mental health problems. The trend in reported mental health problems across England broadly mirrored the pattern of increases in suicides and antidepressant prescribing. Welfare policies and austerity measures implemented since 2010 may have contributed to recent increases in mental health problems and widening inequalities. This has led to rising numbers of people with low levels of education out of work with mental health problems. These trends are likely to increase social exclusion as well as demand for and reliance on social welfare systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in the sand: Directional evolution in the shell shape of recessing scallops (Bivalvia: Pectinidae).

PubMed

Sherratt, Emma; Alejandrino, Alvin; Kraemer, Andrew C; Serb, Jeanne M; Adams, Dean C

2016-09-01

Directional evolution is one of the most compelling evolutionary patterns observed in macroevolution. Yet, despite its importance, detecting such trends in multivariate data remains a challenge. In this study, we evaluate multivariate evolution of shell shape in 93 bivalved scallop species, combining geometric morphometrics and phylogenetic comparative methods. Phylomorphospace visualization described the history of morphological diversification in the group; revealing that taxa with a recessing life habit were the most distinctive in shell shape, and appeared to display a directional trend. To evaluate this hypothesis empirically, we extended existing methods by characterizing the mean directional evolution in phylomorphospace for recessing scallops. We then compared this pattern to what was expected under several alternative evolutionary scenarios using phylogenetic simulations. The observed pattern did not fall within the distribution obtained under multivariate Brownian motion, enabling us to reject this evolutionary scenario. By contrast, the observed pattern was more similar to, and fell within, the distribution obtained from simulations using Brownian motion combined with a directional trend. Thus, the observed data are consistent with a pattern of directional evolution for this lineage of recessing scallops. We discuss this putative directional evolutionary trend in terms of its potential adaptive role in exploiting novel habitats. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Trends and characteristics of animal-vehicle collisions in the United States.

PubMed

Sullivan, John M

2011-02-01

Since 1990, fatal animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs) in the United States have more than doubled. This paper examines annual AVC trends in the United States over a 19-year period, seasonal and diurnal patterns of AVC risk, the geographic distribution of crash risk by state, and the association between posted speed limit and AVC crash risk in darkness. AVCs were compiled from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES) for the years 1990-2008 to examine annual crash trends for fatal and nonfatal crashes. Seasonal trends for fatal AVCs were examined with the aggregated FARS dataset; seasonal trends for fatal and nonfatal AVCs were also examined by aggregating four years of Michigan crash data. State-by-state distributions of fatal AVCs were also described with the aggregated FARS dataset. Finally, the relationship between posted speed limit and the odds that a fatal or nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness were examined with logistic regressions using the aggregated FARS and Michigan datasets. Between 1990 and 2008, fatal AVCs increased by 104% and by 1.3 crashes per trillion vehicle miles travelled per year. Although not all AVCs involve deer, daily and seasonal AVC crash trends follow the general activity pattern of deer populations, consistent with prior reports. The odds that a fatal AVC occurred in darkness were also found to increase by 2.3% for each mile-per-hour increase in speed; a similar, albeit smaller, effect was also observed in the aggregated Michigan dataset, among nonfatal crashes. AVCs represent a small but increasing share of crashes in the United States. Seasonal and daily variation in the pattern of AVCs seem to follow variation in deer exposure and ambient light level. Finally, the relative risk that a fatal and nonfatal AVC occurred in darkness is influenced by posted speed limit, suggesting that a driver's limited forward vision at night plays a role in AVCs, as it does in pedestrian collisions. The association between speed limit and crash risk in darkness suggests that AVC risk might be reduced with countermeasures that improve a driver's forward view of the road. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Rainfall, Land-Cover and Population Growth on Groundwater - A Case Study From Karnataka State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.

2015-12-01

Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.

Mapping Transient Hyperventilation Induced Alterations with Estimates of the Multi-Scale Dynamics of BOLD Signal.

PubMed

Kiviniemi, Vesa; Remes, Jukka; Starck, Tuomo; Nikkinen, Juha; Haapea, Marianne; Silven, Olli; Tervonen, Osmo

2009-01-01

Temporal blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) contrast signals in functional MRI during rest may be characterized by power spectral distribution (PSD) trends of the form 1/f(alpha). Trends with 1/f characteristics comprise fractal properties with repeating oscillation patterns in multiple time scales. Estimates of the fractal properties enable the quantification of phenomena that may otherwise be difficult to measure, such as transient, non-linear changes. In this study it was hypothesized that the fractal metrics of 1/f BOLD signal trends can map changes related to dynamic, multi-scale alterations in cerebral blood flow (CBF) after a transient hyperventilation challenge. Twenty-three normal adults were imaged in a resting-state before and after hyperventilation. Different variables (1/f trend constant alpha, fractal dimension D(f), and, Hurst exponent H) characterizing the trends were measured from BOLD signals. The results show that fractal metrics of the BOLD signal follow the fractional Gaussian noise model, even during the dynamic CBF change that follows hyperventilation. The most dominant effect on the fractal metrics was detected in grey matter, in line with previous hyperventilation vaso-reactivity studies. The alpha was able to differentiate also blood vessels from grey matter changes. D(f) was most sensitive to grey matter. H correlated with default mode network areas before hyperventilation but this pattern vanished after hyperventilation due to a global increase in H. In the future, resting-state fMRI combined with fractal metrics of the BOLD signal may be used for analyzing multi-scale alterations of cerebral blood flow.

Dynamics of DDT in the terrestrial snail Otala lactea (Stylommatophora:Helicidae)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wurzinger, K.H.; Dindal, D.L.

1975-01-01

Seventy specimens of Otala lactea (Mueller) were fed 40 ..mu..g radiolabelled DDT.gram/sup -1/ body weight and analyzed by liquid scintillation spectrometry to determine the body distribution and dynamics of the DDT within the snail's tissues. More than 50% of the pesticide fed to the animals was excreted in the feces after 1 to 2 days. Residues in the body accumulated mostly in the hepatopancreas. All tissues assayed contained measureable quantities of DDT. Five patterns of residue distribution/time were apparent. Pattern I, exhibited by the buccal mass, esophagus, crop, stomach and intestine, showed a general decrease in residue concentrations over themore » 14 day test period. Pattern II, exhibited by the hepatopancreas, kidney, ovotestis, sperm-oviduct, albumen gland and mucous gland, showed a general increase in residue concentrations. Pattern III, exhibited by the salivary gland, spermatheca, circumesophageal nerve ring, lung, collar (mantle edge), foot and vagina + dart sack, showed a fairly constant level of residues. Pattern IV, exhibited by the retractor muscles, epidermis and heart, showed a cyclical distribution of residue levels. Pattern V, exhibited by the penis, showed a cyclical distribution of residue levels that were different from Pattern IV. A double compartment scheme was utilized to explain those trends. Period A, corresponding to the fast compartment, is due to the initial ingestionof insecticide. Periods B and C, corresponding to the slow compartment, are due to the redistribution of residues within the organism.« less

Utilizing Electronic Medical Records to Discover Changing Trends of Medical Behaviors Over Time.

PubMed

Yin, Liangying; Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; He, Chunhua; Duan, Huilong

2017-05-05

Medical behaviors are playing significant roles in the delivery of high quality and cost-effective health services. Timely discovery of changing frequencies of medical behaviors is beneficial for the improvement of health services. The main objective of this work is to discover the changing trends of medical behaviors over time. This study proposes a two-steps approach to detect essential changing patterns of medical behaviors from Electronic Medical Records (EMRs). In detail, a probabilistic topic model, i.e., Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), is firstly applied to disclose yearly treatment patterns in regard to the risk stratification of patients from a large volume of EMRs. After that, the changing trends by comparing essential/critical medical behaviors in a specific time period are detected and analyzed, including changes of significant patient features with their values, and changes of critical treatment interventions with their occurring time stamps. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 12,152 patient cases with a time range of 10 years. Totally, 135 patients features and 234 treatment interventions in three treatment patterns were selected to detect their changing trends. In particular, evolving trends of yearly occurring probabilities of the selected medical behaviors were categorized into six content changing patterns (i.e, 112 growing, 123 declining, 43 up-down, 16 down-up, 35 steady, and 40 jumping), using the proposed approach. Besides, changing trends of execution time of treatment interventions were classified into three occurring time changing patterns (i.e., 175 early-implemented, 50 steady-implemented and 9 delay-implemented). Experimental results show that our approach has an ability to utilize EMRs to discover essential evolving trends of medical behaviors, and thus provide significant potential to be further explored for health services redesign and improvement.

Daily MODIS data trends of hurricane-induced forest impact and early recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramsey, Elijah W.; Spruce, Joseph; Rangoonwala, Amina; Suzuoki, Yukihiro; Smoot, James; Gasser, Jerry; Bannister, Terri

2011-01-01

We studied the use of daily satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors to assess wetland forest damage and recovery from Hurricane Katrina (29 August 2005 landfall). Processed MODIS daily vegetation index (VI) trends were consistent with previously determined impact and recovery patterns provided by the "snapshot" 25 m Landsat Thematic Mapper optical and RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar satellite data. Phenological trends showed high 2004 and 2005 pre-hurricane temporal correspondence within bottomland hardwood forest communities, except during spring green-up, and temporal dissimilarity between these hardwoods and nearby cypress-tupelo swamp forests (Taxodium distichum [baldcypress] and Nyssa aquatica [water tupelo]). MODIS VI trend analyses established that one year after impact, cypress-tupelo and lightly impacted hardwood forests had recovered to near pre-hurricane conditions. In contrast, canopy recovery lagged in the moderately and severely damaged hardwood forests, possibly reflecting regeneration of pre-hurricane species and stand-level replacement by invasive trees.

Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

PubMed Central

Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

2015-01-01

Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641

A Comparative Analysis of E-Learning Policy Formulation in the European Union and the United States: Discursive Convergence and Divergence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erichsen, Elizabeth Roumell; Salajan, Florin D.

2014-01-01

This study developed a framework that compares the content and purposes of "federal" level European Union (EU) and United States (US) e-learning policy to ascertain trends, patterns, and points of convergence and divergence across the years 1994-2010. It reveals that the EU and US are applying similar rhetoric for policy framing,…

Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebner, Andrew D.; Koltun, G.F.; Ostheimer, Chad J.

2015-01-01

Although it is beyond the scope of this study to address results in detail for each model-output location, selected results are discussed to illustrate potential uses and interpretations of the graph products provided in this report. In addition, general trends and patterns in streamflow and water-level characteristics are identified where possible.

Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küttel, Marcel; Luterbacher, Jürg; Wanner, Heinz

2011-03-01

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.

Characteristics and Travel Patterns of New York Residents: Subpopulations of Persons with a Disability in 2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, Ho-Ling; Reuscher, Tim; Wilson, Daniel W.

In this study, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) was tasked by the NYS Department of Transportation (DOT) to conduct a detailed examination of travel behaviors, and identify patterns and trends, on several NYS subpopulations, including disabled persons. Unlike other studies that concentrated on national level statistics, this research is focused on examining issues associated with travelers among NYS residents only. For each special subpopulation group, ORNL will identify differences, if any, in travel patterns that are attributable to demographic characteristics, household characteristics, modal characteristics, geographic location, and other concepts. Focus will be given to trip frequency, trip chaining, as wellmore » as travel by time of day, trip purpose, and mode choice.« less

Using Search Engines to Investigate Shared Migraine Experiences.

PubMed

Burns, Sara M; Turner, Dana P; Sexton, Katherine E; Deng, Hao; Houle, Timothy T

2017-09-01

To investigate migraine patterns in the United States using Google search data and utilize this information to better understand societal-level trends. Additionally, we aimed to evaluate time-series relationships between migraines and social factors. Extensive research has been done on clinical factors associated with migraines, yet population-level social factors have not been widely explored. Migraine internet search data may provide insight into migraine trends beyond information that can be gleaned from other sources. In this longitudinal analysis of open access data, we performed a time-series analysis in which about 12 years of Google Trends data (January 1, 2004 to August 15, 2016) were assessed. Data points were captured at a daily level and Google's 0-100 adjusted scale was used as the primary outcome to enable the comparison of relative popularity in the migraine search term. We hypothesized that the volume of relative migraine Google searches would be affected by societal aspects such as day of the week, holidays, and novel social events. Several recurrent social factors that drive migraine searches were identified. Of these, day of the week had the most significant impact on the volume of Google migraine searches. On average, Mondays accumulated 13.31 higher relative search volume than Fridays (95% CI: 11.12-15.51, P ≤ .001). Surprisingly, holidays were associated with lower relative migraine search volumes. Christmas Day had 13.84 lower relative search volumes (95% CI: 6.26-21.43, P ≤ .001) and Thanks giving had 20.18 lower relative search volumes (95% CI: 12.55-27.82, P ≤ .001) than days that were not holidays. Certain novel social events and extreme weather also appear to be associated with relative migraine Google search volume. Social factors play a crucial role in explaining population level migraine patterns, and thus, warrant further exploration. © 2017 American Headache Society.

Dietary transition and obesity in selected Arabicspeaking countries: a review of the current evidence.

PubMed

Aboul-Enein, B H; Bernstein, J; Neary, A C

2017-01-23

Escalating obesity rates have become a significant public health problem in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and have been associated with shifts towards a westernized diet. This integrative review aimed to examine the current dietary trends and transitions and their association with obesity in Arabic-speaking countries of the MENA region. Relevant databases were searched for studies in MENA countries between 1998 and 2014 that investigated obesity trends and changes in dietary patterns at the regional level in all age groups. A total of 39 articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. All the articles noted that obesity was increasingly prevalent and that there was a significant dietary shift away from traditional dietary patterns; 51% reported a shift towards a westernized diet and half found that the western diet was correlated with increased obesity. Culturally relevant dietary health education and health promotion strategies are warranted to address both the dietary shifts towards the westernized diet and the increasing obesity.

Disparities in Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Declining Heart Disease Mortality by Race and Sex in the United States, 1973-2010.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Quick, Harrison; Pathak, Elizabeth B; Kramer, Michael R; Casper, Michele

2015-12-15

Examining small-area differences in the strength of declining heart disease mortality by race and sex provides important context for current racial and geographic disparities and identifies localities that could benefit from targeted interventions. We identified and described temporal trends in declining county-level heart disease mortality by race, sex, and geography between 1973 and 2010. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we estimated age-adjusted mortality with diseases of the heart listed as the underlying cause for 3099 counties. County-level percentage declines were calculated by race and sex for 3 time periods (1973-1985, 1986-1997, 1998-2010). Strong declines were statistically faster or no different than the total national decline in that time period. We observed county-level race-sex disparities in heart disease mortality trends. Continual (from 1973 to 2010) strong declines occurred in 73.2%, 44.6%, 15.5%, and 17.3% of counties for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively. Delayed (1998-2010) strong declines occurred in 15.4%, 42.0%, 75.5%, and 76.6% of counties for white men, white women, black men, and black women, respectively. Counties with the weakest patterns of decline were concentrated in the South. Since 1973, heart disease mortality has declined substantially for these race-sex groups. Patterns of decline differed by race and geography, reflecting potential disparities in national and local drivers of these declines. Better understanding of racial and geographic disparities in the diffusion of heart disease prevention and treatment may allow us to find clues to progress toward racial and geographic equity in heart disease mortality. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Anthropometric geography applied to the analysis of socioeconomic disparities: cohort trends and spatial patterns of height and robustness in 20th-century Spain

PubMed Central

Camara, Antonio D.; Roman, Joan Garcia

2014-01-01

Anthropometrics have been widely used to study the influence of environmental factors on health and nutritional status. In contrast, anthropometric geography has not often been employed to approximate the dynamics of spatial disparities associated with socioeconomic and demographic changes. Spain exhibited intense disparity and change during the middle decades of the 20th century, with the result that the life courses of the corresponding cohorts were associated with diverse environmental conditions. This was also true of the Spanish territories. This paper presents insights concerning the relationship between socioeconomic changes and living conditions by combining the analysis of cohort trends and the anthropometric cartography of height and physical build. This analysis is conducted for Spanish male cohorts born 1934–1973 that were recorded in the Spanish military statistics. This information is interpreted in light of region-level data on GDP and infant mortality. Our results show an anthropometric convergence across regions that, nevertheless, did not substantially modify the spatial patterns of robustness, featuring primarily robust northeastern regions and weak Central-Southern regions. These patterns persisted until the 1990s (cohorts born during the 1970s). For the most part, anthropometric disparities were associated with socioeconomic disparities, although the former lessened over time to a greater extent than the latter. Interestingly, the various anthropometric indicators utilized here do not point to the same conclusions. Some discrepancies between height and robustness patterns have been found that moderate the statements from the analysis of cohort height alone regarding the level and evolution of living conditions across Spanish regions. PMID:26640422

Association between serum neuron-specific enolase, age, overweight, and structural MRI patterns in 901 subjects.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Johanna; Janowitz, Deborah; Van der Auwera, Sandra; Wittfeld, Katharina; Nauck, Matthias; Friedrich, Nele; Habes, Mohamad; Davatzikos, Christos; Terock, Jan; Bahls, Martin; Goltz, Annemarie; Kuhla, Angela; Völzke, Henry; Jörgen Grabe, Hans

2017-12-08

Serum neuron-specific enolase (sNSE) is considered a marker for neuronal damage, related to gray matter structures. Previous studies indicated its potential as marker for structural and functional damage in conditions with adverse effects to the brain like obesity and dementia. In the present study, we investigated the putative association between sNSE levels, body mass index (BMI), total gray matter volume (GMV), and magnetic resonance imaging-based indices of aging as well as Alzheimer's disease (AD)-like patterns. sNSE was determined in 901 subjects (499 women, 22-81 years, BMI 18-48 kg/m 2 ), participating in a population-based study (SHIP-TREND). We report age-specific patterns of sNSE levels between males and females. Females showed augmenting, males decreasing sNSE levels associated with age (males: p = 0.1052, females: p = 0.0363). sNSE levels and BMI were non-linearly associated, showing a parabolic association and decreasing sNSE levels at BMI values >25 (p = 0.0056). In contrast to our hypotheses, sNSE levels were not associated with total GMV, aging, or AD-like patterns. Pathomechanisms discussed are: sex-specific hormonal differences, neuronal damage/differentiation, or impaired cerebral glucose metabolism. We assume a sex-dependence of age-related effects to the brain. Further, we propose in accordance to previous studies an actual neuronal damage in the early stages of obesity. However, with progression of overweight, we assume more profound effects of excess body fat to the brain.

Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Zubko, Viktor

2009-01-01

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together

Dietary Patterns and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: Analysis by Tumor Location and Molecular Subtypes.

PubMed

Mehta, Raaj S; Song, Mingyang; Nishihara, Reiko; Drew, David A; Wu, Kana; Qian, Zhi Rong; Fung, Teresa T; Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Masugi, Yohei; da Silva, Annacarolina; Shi, Yan; Li, Wanwan; Gu, Mancang; Willett, Walter C; Fuchs, Charles S; Giovannucci, Edward L; Ogino, Shuji; Chan, Andrew T

2017-06-01

Western and prudent dietary patterns have been associated with higher and lower risks of colorectal cancer (CRC), respectively. However, little is known about the associations between dietary patterns and specific anatomic subsites or molecular subtypes of CRC. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to examine the associations between Western and prudent dietary patterns and CRC risk in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and Nurses' Health Study. After up to 32 years of follow-up of 137,217 men and women, we documented 3260 cases of CRC. Among individuals from whom subsite data were available, we observed 1264 proximal colon, 866 distal colon, and 670 rectal tumors. Western diet was associated with an increased incidence of CRC (P trend < .0001), with a relative risk (RR) of 1.31 (95% CI, 1.15-1.48, comparing the highest to lowest quartile). The association of Western diet with CRC was evident for tumors of the distal colon (RR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.22-1.96; P trend  = .0004) and rectum (RR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.03-1.77; P trend  = .01) but not proximal colon (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.91-1.35; P trend  = .51) when we comparing extreme quartiles. In contrast, for the prudent pattern, we observed a RR of 0.86 for overall CRC (95% CI, 0.77-0.95; P trend  = .01), with similar trends at anatomic subsites. However, the trend appeared stronger among men than women. Among 1285 cases (39%) with tissue available for molecular profiling, Western diet appeared to be more strongly associated with some CRC molecular subtypes (no mutations in KRAS [KRAS wildtype] or BRAF [BRAF wildtype], no or a low CpG island methylator phenotype, and microsatellite stability), although formal tests for heterogeneity did not produce statistically significant results. Western dietary patterns are associated with an increased risk of CRC, particularly distal colon and rectal tumors. Western dietary patterns also appear more strongly associated with tumors that are KRAS wildtype, BRAF wildtype, have no or a low CpG island methylator phenotype, and microsatellite stability. In contrast, prudent dietary patterns are associated with a lower risk of CRC that does not vary according to anatomic subsite or molecular subtype. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of age, season, gender and urban-rural status on time-activity: CanadianHuman Activity Pattern Survey 2 (CHAPS 2).

PubMed

Matz, Carlyn J; Stieb, David M; Davis, Karelyn; Egyed, Marika; Rose, Andreas; Chou, Benedito; Brion, Orly

2014-02-19

Estimation of population exposure is a main component of human health risk assessment for environmental contaminants. Population-level exposure assessments require time-activity pattern distributions in relation to microenvironments where people spend their time. Societal trends may have influenced time-activity patterns since previous Canadian data were collected 15 years ago. The Canadian Human Activity Pattern Survey 2 (CHAPS 2) was a national survey conducted in 2010-2011 to collect time-activity information from Canadians of all ages. Five urban and two rural locations were sampled using telephone surveys. Infants and children, key groups in risk assessment activities, were over-sampled. Survey participants (n = 5,011) provided time-activity information in 24-hour recall diaries and responded to supplemental questionnaires concerning potential exposures to specific pollutants, dwelling characteristics, and socio-economic factors. Results indicated that a majority of the time was spent indoors (88.9%), most of which was indoors at home, with limited time spent outdoors (5.8%) or in a vehicle (5.3%). Season, age, gender and rurality were significant predictors of time activity patterns. Compared to earlier data, adults reported spending more time indoors at home and adolescents reported spending less time outdoors, which could be indicative of broader societal trends. These findings have potentially important implications for assessment of exposure and risk. The CHAPS 2 data also provide much larger sample sizes to allow for improved precision and are more representative of infants, children and rural residents.

Partisan Joiners: Associational Membership and Political Polarization in the United States (1974–2004)*

PubMed Central

Baldassarri, Delia

2013-01-01

Objectives Associational life may foster political integration or amplify division, depending on how individuals partition themselves into groups and whether their multiple affiliations embed them into concentric or cross-cutting social circles. Starting from this premise, I relate trends in associational membership to political partisanship, and ask if there is any evidence of increased political polarization in the associative patterns of Americans. Methods Using GSS data (1974–2004) on affiliations to 16 types of groups, I plot trends and run multilevel models to examine changes over time in the partisan allegiances of group members and patterns of overlapping memberships. Results The often-lamented decline in group membership affects primarily the category of single-group members and is limited to a few types of groups. The density of the network of overlapping memberships has remained stable over time and there are no real changes in the patterns of shared memberships between group types, nor do Republicans and Democrats differ in their patterns of preferential affiliation. Although political partisanship does not drive patterns of group affiliation, group members, especially those affiliated with multiple groups, are more radical in their partisan identification than nonmembers, and most types of groups have become politically more heterogeneous over time. Conclusion The puzzling finding that group types are not becoming more partisan, while group members are, leads to the hypothesis (to be tested in future research) that civil society polarization is occurring at the level of actual groups, and not group types. PMID:23741076

Impact of land use/land cover change on changes in surface solar radiation in eastern China since the reform and opening up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Cheng

2016-01-01

Observational evidence of the impacts of land use/land cover change (LULCC) on changes in surface solar radiation (SSR) in eastern China (EC) during 1979-2008 are identified by using diurnal temperature range as a proxy of SSR and by using observation minus reanalysis approach to disentangle these effects. For the period 1979-2008, the impact of LULCC is shown as a reduction in SSR in most stations in EC, whereas SSR in the reanalysis data has increased at nearly every location. The competition of the dimming effect of LULCC with the brightening effect in the reanalysis results in an observed dipole pattern of SSR with slightly decreasing (increasing) trends in most stations north (south) of the Yangtze River and statistically significant decreasing trends in central EC. In terms of EC area mean, this competition has resulted in a slightly dimming trend in the observed SSR during 1979-2008, although a transition from an apparent dimming to a general leveling off near 1990 is identified. For the period 1990-2008, LULCC has significantly reduced SSR in central EC and southern China. This dimming effect of LULCC competes with the apparent brightening effect in the reanalysis to result in the general leveling off in the observed SSR in terms of EC area mean and a sandwich spatial pattern in the observed SSR in EC where parts of central EC show significant dimming. The impact of LULCC on the changes in SSR may be through both biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes.

Perfluoroalkyl Substances (PFASs) in Marine Mammals from the South China Sea and Their Temporal Changes 2002-2014: Concern for Alternatives of PFOS?

PubMed

Lam, James C W; Lyu, Jinling; Kwok, Karen Y; Lam, Paul K S

2016-07-05

Perfluorinated sulfonic acids (PFSAs) and perfluorinated carboxylic acids (PFCAs), as well as the replacement for the phase-out C8 PFSAs were determined in the liver samples of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) and finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) from the South China Sea between 2002 and 2014. Levels of total perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in samples ranged from 136-15,300 and 30.5-2,720 ng/g dw for dolphin and porpoise, respectively. Significant increasing trends of several individual PFCAs and perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS) were found in cetacean samples from 2002 to 2014, whereas no significant temporal trends of ∑PFASs appeared over the sampling period. This pattern may be attributed to the increasing usage of PFCAs and C4-based PFSAs following the restriction/voluntary withdrawal of the production and use of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) related products. In addition, significantly increasing temporal shifting trends of PFOS to PFBS were observed in the dolphin liver samples. This pattern may be attributed to the substitution of PFOS by its alternative, PFBS. The highest levels of PFOS were observed in the liver samples of dolphin as compared with other marine mammal studies published since 2006, indicating high contamination of PFAS in the South China region. An assessment of relatively high concentrations of C8-based PFASs in the liver samples of cetaceans predicted that concentrations of PFOS would be expected to affect some proportion of the cetacean populations studied, based on the toxicity thresholds derived.

Why we use more materials.

PubMed

Gutowski, Timothy; Cooper, Daniel; Sahni, Sahil

2017-06-13

In this paper, we review the drivers for the high levels of material use in society, investigating both historical and current trends. We present recent national and global data by different material categories and accounting schemes, showing the correlations between materials use and different measures of human well-being. We also present a development narrative to accompany these observed trends, focusing on the strong role materials have played in economic development by industrialization and in the consumer economy. Finally, we speculate on how material efficiency might alter this pattern going forward and whether it is possible to de-couple well-being from material use.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Why we use more materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutowski, Timothy; Cooper, Daniel; Sahni, Sahil

2017-05-01

In this paper, we review the drivers for the high levels of material use in society, investigating both historical and current trends. We present recent national and global data by different material categories and accounting schemes, showing the correlations between materials use and different measures of human well-being. We also present a development narrative to accompany these observed trends, focusing on the strong role materials have played in economic development by industrialization and in the consumer economy. Finally, we speculate on how material efficiency might alter this pattern going forward and whether it is possible to de-couple well-being from material use. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Visualizando el desarrollo de la nanomedicina en México.

PubMed

Robles-Belmont, Eduardo; Gortari-Rabiela, Rebeca de; Galarza-Barrios, Pilar; Siqueiros-García, Jesús Mario; Ruiz-León, Alejandro Arnulfo

2017-01-01

In this article we present a set of different visualizations of Mexico's nanomedicine scientific production data. Visualizations were developed using different methodologies for data analysis and visualization such as social network analysis, geography of science maps, and complex network communities analysis. Results are a multi-dimensional overview of the evolution of nanomedicine in Mexico. Moreover, visualizations allowed to identify trends and patterns of collaboration at the national and international level. Trends are also found in the knowledge structure of themes and disciplines. Finally, we identified the scientific communities in Mexico that are responsible for the new knowledge production in this emergent field of science. Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

The relationship between maternal education and the neural substrates of phoneme perception in children: Interactions between socioeconomic status and proficiency level.

PubMed

Conant, Lisa L; Liebenthal, Einat; Desai, Anjali; Binder, Jeffrey R

2017-08-01

Relationships between maternal education (ME) and both behavioral performances and brain activation during the discrimination of phonemic and nonphonemic sounds were examined using fMRI in children with different levels of phoneme categorization proficiency (CP). Significant relationships were found between ME and intellectual functioning and vocabulary, with a trend for phonological awareness. A significant interaction between CP and ME was seen for nonverbal reasoning abilities. In addition, fMRI analyses revealed a significant interaction between CP and ME for phonemic discrimination in left prefrontal cortex. Thus, ME was associated with differential patterns of both neuropsychological performance and brain activation contingent on the level of CP. These results highlight the importance of examining SES effects at different proficiency levels. The pattern of results may suggest the presence of neurobiological differences in the children with low CP that affect the nature of relationships with ME. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trend Patterns of Vegetative Coverage and Their Underlying Causes in the Deserts of Northwest China over 1982 – 2008

PubMed Central

Zhang, Tianyi; Wang, Hesong

2015-01-01

We identified the spatiotemporal patterns of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the years 1982–2008 in the desert areas of Northwest China and quantified the impacts of climate and non-climate factors on NDVI changes. The results indicate that although the mean NDVI has improved in 24.7% of the study region; 16.3% among the region has been stagnating in recent years and only 8.4% had a significantly increasing trend. Additionally, 45.3% of the region has maintained a stable trend over the study period and 30.0% has declined. A multiple regression model suggests that a wetter climate (quantified by the Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) is associated with higher NDVI in most areas (18.1% of significance) but these historical changes in PDSI only caused an average improvement of approximately 0.4% over the study region. Contrasting the regression results under different trend patterns, no significant differences in PDSI impacts were detected among the four trend patterns. Therefore, we conclude that climate is not the primary driver for vegetative coverage in Northwest China. Future studies will be required to identify the impacts of specific non-climatic factors on vegetative coverage based on high-resolution data, which will be beneficial in creating an effective strategy to combat the recent desertification trend in China. PMID:25961563

Prescription patterns of analgesics in the last 3 months of life: a retrospective analysis of 10202 lung cancer patients

PubMed Central

Gao, W; Gulliford, M; Higginson, I J

2011-01-01

Background: To describe the prescription patterns of analgesics during the last 3 months of life in lung cancer and to determine the associated factors. Methods: Data on lung cancer patients (N=10 202) who died during 2000–2008 were extracted from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). This database records prescriptions of patients received from UK general practices (GP), but not those from non-GP routes. Prescription prevalences were estimated. The associated factors were investigated using log-binomial regression. Results: The overall prescription prevalences were 50.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 49.4–51.4%) for level 1 (e.g., paracetamol), 34.1% (95% CI: 33.2–35.0%) for level 2 (weak opioids), and 55.5 % (95% CI: 54.5–56.4%) for level 3 analgesics (strong opioids). Prescription prevalence of analgesics of all levels showed an increasing trend over the period 2000–2008 (annual increases range: 1.1–1.5%) but a decreasing trend with age (average decrease per group range: −5.8 to −1.8%). Patients in the older age groups were less likely to be prescribed level 3 analgesics than those in the younger age groups (PR‘90+' vs ‘<50'=0.55 (95% CI: 0.45–0.67); PR‘80−89' vs ‘<50'=0.73 (95% CI: 0.66–0.79); PR‘70−79' vs ‘<50'=0.84 (95% CI: 0.77–0.90)). Conclusion: Analgesics have been increasingly prescribed in lung cancer. However, analgesics, especially at level 3, were relatively under-prescribed to people older than 70 years, warranting further investigation. PMID:21540860

Explaining Changes in the Patterns of Black Suicide in the United States From 1981 to 2002: An Age, Cohort, and Period Analysis

PubMed Central

Joe, Sean

2009-01-01

To explore the different trends of suicide incidence among Blacks and possible contributing factors, the current study compared national epidemiologic data of suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002. For the first time, period and birth-cohort effects on the incidence trends of Black suicide were evaluated using an age-period-cohort analysis. Cohort effects were found for males and females, suggesting that younger generations of Blacks are at higher risk. If younger cohorts carry their increased suicide risk into later life, then the recent decline in Black suicide rates will be reversed. The results of the current study are only interpretable in terms of group-level characteristics and population suicide rates and not individual-level characteristics. The possible explanation and the implications for prevention and future research are discussed. PMID:19759855

The normalisation of substance abuse among young travellers in Ireland: implications for practice.

PubMed

Van Hout, Marie Claire; Connor, Sean

2008-01-01

This report presents the findings of an exploratory study aimed at assessing the nature and extent of drug use amongst a group of young Travellers (aged twelve to eighteen years) in the South Eastern Region of Ireland. The results are intended to inform the Irish policy debate by providing data on patterns of youth drug use, drug-related risk behaviours, the impact of drug use on the Traveller community and issues regarding access to services. The young Travellers exhibited similar trends to "settled" adolescents with regard to drug use trends and attitudes but reported poor levels of health awareness and knowledge of drug services. The social exclusion of young Travellers puts them at risk of problematic drug use due to issues of poor literacy levels, family crisis, discrimination, poor knowledge of service provision relating to drug education and treatment, and the location of halting sites in areas of high drug usage.

Caffeine, coffee and tea intake and urinary estrogens and estrogen metabolites in premenopausal women

PubMed Central

Sisti, Julia S.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Caporaso, Neil E.; Gu, Fangyi; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Rosner, Bernard; Xu, Xia; Ziegler, Regina; Eliassen, A. Heather

2015-01-01

Background Prior studies have found weak inverse associations between breast cancer and caffeine and coffee intake, possibly mediated through their effects on sex hormones. Methods High-performance liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry was used to quantify levels of 15 individual estrogens and estrogen metabolites (EM) among 587 premenopausal women in the Nurses’ Health Study II with mid-luteal phase urine samples and caffeine, coffee and/or tea intakes from self-reported food frequency questionnaires. Multivariate linear mixed models were used to estimate geometric means of individual EM, pathways and ratios by intake categories, and P-values for tests of linear trend. Results Compared to women in the lowest quartile of caffeine consumption, those in the top quartile had higher urinary concentrations of 16α-hydroxyestrone (28% difference; P-trend=0.01) and 16-epiestriol (13% difference; P-trend=0.04), and a decreased parent estrogens/2-, 4-, 16-pathway ratio (P-trend=0.03). Coffee intake was associated with higher 2-catechols, including 2-hydroxyestradiol (57% difference, ≥4 cups/day vs. ≤6 cups/week; P-trend=0.001) and 2-hydroxyestrone (52% difference; P-trend=0.001), and several ratio measures. Decaffeinated coffee was not associated with 2-pathway metabolism, but women in the highest (vs. lowest) category of intake (≥2 cups/day vs. ≤1–3 cups/month) had significantly lower levels of two 16-pathway metabolites, estriol (25% difference; P-trend=0.01) and 17-epiestriol (48% difference; Ptrend=0.0004). Tea intake was positively associated with 17-epiestriol (52% difference; Ptrend=0.01). Conclusion Caffeine and coffee intake were both associated with profiles of estrogen metabolism in premenopausal women. Impact Consumption of caffeine and coffee may alter patterns of premenopausal estrogen metabolism. PMID:26063478

Trends and changes in prescription opioid analgesic dispensing in Canada 2005–2012: an update with a focus on recent interventions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Prescription opioid analgesic (POA) utilization has steeply increased globally, yet is far higher in established market economies than elsewhere. Canada features the world’s second-highest POA consumption rates. Following increases in POA-related harm, several POA control interventions have been implemented since 2010. Methods We examined trends and patterns in POA dispensing in Canada by province for 2005–2012, including a focus on the potential effects of interventions. Data on annual dispensing of individual POA formulations – categorized into ‘weak opioids’ and ‘strong opioids’ – from a representative sub-sample of 5,700 retail pharmacies across Canada (from IMS Brogan’s Compuscript) were converted into Defined Daily Doses (DDD), and examined intra- and inter-provincially as well as for Canada (total). Results Total POA dispensing – driven by strong opioids – increased across Canada until 2011; four provinces indicated decreases in strong opioid dispensing; seven provinces indicated decreases specifically in oxycodone dispensing, 2011–2012. The dispensing ratio weak/strong opioids decreased substantively. Major inter-provincial differences in POA dispensing levels and qualitative patterns of POA formulations dispensed persisted. Previous increasing trends in POA dispensing were reversed in select provinces 2011–2012, coinciding with POA-related interventions. Conclusions Further examinations regarding the sustained nature, drivers and consequences of the recent trend changes in POA dispensing – including possible ‘substitution effects’ for oxycodone reductions – are needed. PMID:24572005

Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

2018-02-01

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

Thirty-Day and 5-Year Readmissions following First Psychiatric Hospitalization: A System-Level Study of Ontario's Psychiatric Care.

PubMed

Chen, Sheng; Collins, April; Kidd, Sean A

2018-06-01

Analyses of representative, system-level data to examine trends in short- and longer-term readmission rates for psychiatric illnesses are largely absent. The objective of this article is to examine key trends and variables with implications for inpatient care as indicated by 30-day readmission and outpatient care as reflected by readmission within 5 years. Using OMHRS data from 2005 to 2015, patients who had their first inpatient admission were followed for 5 years to examine their subsequent 30-day and overall admission rates stratified by discharge time and diagnosis. The study cohort consisted of 42,280 patients. The 30-day and 5-year readmission rates for the entire cohort were 7.2% and 35.1%, respectively. Using a time course analysis of readmission for discharges in different years, both 30-day readmission and 5-year readmission rates decreased in a linear manner from 2005 to 2010, primarily because of readmission patterns for patients diagnosed with mood disorders and schizophrenia/other psychotic disorders. It was also evident that both demographic considerations such as age and gender and variables reflective of social determinants such as education level and employment were predictive of rehospitalization risk. The trends of decreasing readmission rates may be reflective of improvements in the quality of hospital and community-based outpatient care. Such system-level indicators warrant tracking and may inform more effective tertiary prevention.

Time trends and demographic differences in youth exposure to alcohol advertising on television.

PubMed

Ringel, Jeanne S; Collins, Rebecca L; Ellickson, Phyllis L

2006-10-01

To examine trends in youth exposure to alcohol advertising on television across different demographic groups. We used television ratings data on alcohol advertisements to examine trends in exposure between September 1998 and February 2002. Further, we explored the differences in exposure across demographic groups by examining group-level alcohol ad exposure across specific networks, program types, and times of day. We found that boys were more exposed than girls and African-Americans are more exposed than whites. Moreover, the race differential appeared to be increasing over time, whereas the gender differential appeared to increase with age. Differences in viewing patterns across race and gender contributed to the observed differences in exposure to alcohol advertising on television. These results provide guidance in identifying comparative vulnerabilities in exposure to alcohol advertising on television, and can aid in the development of strategies to inoculate youth against those vulnerabilities.

Spatiotemporal patterns of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in China, 2011-2016.

PubMed

Sun, Jimin; Lu, Liang; Wu, Haixia; Yang, Jun; Liu, Keke; Liu, Qiyong

2018-05-01

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is emerging and the number of SFTS cases have increased year by year in China. However, spatiotemporal patterns and trends of SFTS are less clear up to date. In order to explore spatiotemporal patterns and predict SFTS incidences, we analyzed temporal trends of SFTS using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, spatial patterns, and spatiotemporal clusters of SFTS cases at the county level based on SFTS data in China during 2011-2016. We determined the optimal time series model was ARIMA (2, 0, 1) × (0, 0, 1) 12 which fitted the SFTS cases reasonably well during the training process and forecast process. In the spatial clustering analysis, the global autocorrelation suggested that SFTS cases were not of random distribution. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis of SFTS identified foci mainly concentrated in Hubei Province, Henan Province, Anhui Province, Shandong Province, Liaoning Province, and Zhejiang Province. A most likely cluster including 21 counties in Henan Province and Hubei Province was observed in the central region of China from April 2015 to August 2016. Our results will provide a sound evidence base for future prevention and control programs of SFTS such as allocation of the health resources, surveillance in high-risk regions, health education, improvement of diagnosis and so on. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Revisiting convergence: A research note.

PubMed

Clark, Rob

2015-09-01

A number of recent studies show that income inequality is declining between countries. In this research note, I question the significance of this trend by examining the role of initial conditions in producing convergence. An important (but neglected) property of inequality dynamics is the tendency for extreme distributions to become more moderate. When income disparities are large, the subsequent trend is biased toward convergence. Conversely, when initial conditions approach parity, divergence becomes the more likely long-term outcome. I apply this principle to trends in GDP PC across 127 countries during the 1980-2010 period. Using counterfactual analysis, I manipulate the initial level of inequality in GDP PC while holding constant each country's observed growth rate during the sample period. I find that the growth dynamics of GDP PC produce either convergence or divergence based simply on the initial distribution of income. The point of transition occurs at a moderate level of inequality, whether using population weights (Gini=.365) or not (Gini=.377). I conclude that the recent convergence observed in GDP PC is primarily a function of large income gaps between countries and would not have materialized at more moderate levels of initial inequality. By contrast, an examination of the pre-1950 period reveals divergent growth patterns that are not sensitive to initial conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation of the effects of rainfall and groundwater use on historical lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows in central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul; Daamen, Ruby C.; Petkewich, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

The urbanization of central Florida has progressed substantially in recent decades, and the total population in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties more than quadrupled from 1960 to 2010. The Floridan aquifer system is the primary source of water for potable, industrial, and agricultural purposes in central Florida. Despite increases in groundwater withdrawals to meet the demand of population growth, recharge derived by infiltration of rainfall in the well-drained karst terrain of central Florida is the largest component of the long-term water balance of the Floridan aquifer system. To complement existing physics-based groundwater flow models, artificial neural networks and other data-mining techniques were used to simulate historical lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at sites throughout the area. Historical data were examined using descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and other exploratory analysis techniques to assess their suitability for more intensive data-mining analysis. Linear trend analyses of meteorological data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at 21 sites indicate 67 percent of sites exhibited upward trends in air temperature over at least a 45-year period of record, whereas 76 percent exhibited downward trends in rainfall over at least a 95-year period of record. Likewise, linear trend analyses of hydrologic response data, which have varied periods of record ranging in length from 10 to 79 years, indicate that water levels in lakes (307 sites) were about evenly split between upward and downward trends, whereas water levels in 69 percent of wells (out of 455 sites) and flows in 68 percent of springs (out of 19 sites) exhibited downward trends. Total groundwater use in the study area increased from about 250 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) in 1958 to about 590 Mgal/d in 1980 and remained relatively stable from 1981 to 2008, with a minimum of 559 Mgal/d in 1994 and a maximum of 773 Mgal/d in 2000. The change in groundwater-use trend in the early 1980s and the following period of relatively slight trend is attributable to the concomitant effects of increasing public-supply withdrawals and decreasing use of water by the phosphate industry and agriculture. On the basis of available historical data and exploratory analyses, empirical lake water-level, groundwater-level, and spring-flow models were developed for 22 lakes, 23 wells, and 6 springs. Input time series consisting of various frequencies and frequency-band components of daily rainfall (1942 to 2008) and monthly total groundwater use (1957 to 2008) resulted in hybrid signal-decomposition artificial neural network models. The final models explained much of the variability in observed hydrologic data, with 43 of the 51 sites having coefficients of determination exceeding 0.6, and the models matched the magnitude of the observed data reasonably well, such that models for 32 of the 51 sites had root-mean-square errors less than 10 percent of the measured range of the data. The Central Florida Artificial Neural Network Decision Support System was developed to integrate historical databases and the 102 site-specific artificial neural network models, model controls, and model output into a spreadsheet application with a graphical user interface that allows the user to simulate scenarios of interest. Overall, the data-mining analyses indicate that the Floridan aquifer system in central Florida is a highly conductive, dynamic, open system that is strongly influenced by external forcing. The most important external forcing appears to be rainfall, which explains much of the multiyear cyclic variability and long-term downward trends observed in lake water levels, groundwater levels, and spring flows. For most sites, groundwater use explains less of the observed variability in water levels and flows than rainfall. Relative groundwater-use impacts are greater during droughts, however, and long-term trends in water levels and flows were identified that are consistent with historical groundwater-use patterns. The sensitivity of the hydrologic system to rainfall is expected, owing to the well-drained karst terrain and relatively thin confinement of the Floridan aquifer system in much of central Florida. These characteristics facilitate the relatively rapid transmission of infiltrating water from rainfall to the water table and contribute to downward leakage of water to the Floridan aquifer system. The areally distributed nature of rainfall, as opposed to the site-specific nature of groundwater use, and the generally high transmissivity and low storativity properties of the semiconfined Floridan aquifer system contribute to the prevalence of water-level and flow patterns that mimic rainfall patterns. In general, the data-mining analyses demonstrate that the hydrologic system in central Florida is affected by groundwater use differently during wet periods, when little or no system storage is available (high water levels), compared to dry periods, when there is excess system storage (low water levels). Thus, by driving the overall behavior of the system, rainfall indirectly influences the degree to which groundwater use will effect persistent trends in water levels and flows, with groundwater-use impacts more prevalent during periods of low water levels and spring flows caused by low rainfall and less prevalent during periods of high water levels and spring flows caused by high rainfall. Differences in the magnitudes of rainfall and groundwater use during wet and dry periods also are important determinants of hydrologic response. An important implication of the data-mining analyses is that rainfall variability at subannual to multidecadal timescales must be considered in combination with groundwater use to provide robust system-response predictions that enhance sustainable resource management in an open karst aquifer system. The data-driven approach was limited, however, by the confounding effects of correlation between rainfall and groundwater use, the quality and completeness of the historical databases, and the spatial variations in groundwater use. The data-mining analyses indicate that available historical data when used alone do not contain sufficient information to definitively quantify the related individual effects of rainfall and groundwater use on hydrologic response. The knowledge gained from data-driven modeling and the results from physics-based modeling, when compared and used in combination, can yield a more comprehensive assessment and a more robust understanding of the hydrologic system than either of the approaches used separately.

Global and regional trends in the nutritional status of young people: a critical and neglected age group.

PubMed

Akseer, Nadia; Al-Gashm, Sara; Mehta, Seema; Mokdad, Ali; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2017-04-01

Adolescence and emerging adulthood form a critical time period for the achievement of optimal health and nutrition across all stages of the life course. We undertook a review of published literature and global data repositories for information on nutrition levels, trends, and patterns among young people aged 10-24 years from January 1, 2016 to September 20, 2016. We describe patterns for both males and females at the global level and for geographic regions for the period covering 1990-2015. The results of this study paint a less than ideal picture of current young people's nutrition, suggesting dual burdens of underweight and high body-mass index in many countries and variable improvements in micronutrient deficiencies across geographical regions. Poor diet diversity and lack of nutrient-dense food, high risk for metabolic syndrome, and sedentary lifestyles also characterize this population. The need for objective, comparable, and high-quality data is also recognized for further study in this area. As the global community works toward supporting and scaling up health gains in the sustainable development goal era, realizing the critical role of young people is essential. Investing in young people's nutrition is critical to making strides in improving the overall health and well-being of all populations. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

Behavior-over-time graphs: assessing perceived trends in healthy eating and active living environments and behaviors across 49 communities.

PubMed

Hoehner, Christine M; Sabounchi, Nasim S; Brennan, Laura K; Hovmand, Peter; Kemner, Allison

2015-01-01

In the evaluation of the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities initiative, investigators implemented Group Model Building (GMB) to promote systems thinking at the community level. As part of the GMB sessions held in each community partnership, participants created behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) to characterize their perceptions of changes over time related to policies, environments, collaborations, and social determinants in their community related to healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. To describe the process of coding BOTGs and their trends. Descriptive study of trends among BOTGs from 11 domains (eg, active living environments, social determinants of health, funding) and relevant categories and subcategories based on the graphed variables. In addition, BOTGs were distinguished by whether the variables were positively (eg, access to healthy foods) or negatively (eg, screen time) associated with health. The GMB sessions were held in 49 community partnerships across the United States. Participants in the GMB sessions (n = 590; n = 5-21 per session) included key individuals engaged in or impacted by the policy, system, or environmental changes occurring in the community. Thirty codes were developed to describe the direction (increasing, decreasing, stable) and shape (linear, reinforcing, balancing, or oscillating) of trends from 1660 graphs. The patterns of trends varied by domain. For example, among variables positively associated with health, the prevalence of reinforcing increasing trends was highest for active living and healthy eating environments (37.4% and 29.3%, respectively), partnership and community capacity (38.8%), and policies (30.2%). Examination of trends of specific variables suggested both convergence (eg, for cost of healthy foods) and divergence (eg, for farmers' markets) of trends across partnerships. Behavior-over-time graphs provide a unique data source for understanding community-level trends and, when combined with causal maps and computer modeling, can yield insights about prevention strategies to address childhood obesity.

Synoptic analysis of heat waves in the Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) during 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, Jéssica; Peña, Juan Carlos; Miró, Josep Ramon; Aran, Montserrat

2017-04-01

The impact of extremely warm episodes on health has been analysed by a large number of studies conducted in different countries and cities, showing that heat waves events (HWE) can cause an abrupt increase in mortality. A HWE was defined as a 7-day sequence following a key-day labelled by the 95th percentile of Barcelona daily mortality (see Peña et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to identify synoptic patterns associated to HWE in Barcelona over the 21st century and evaluate the impact and possible mitigations. To achieve it, a multivariate analysis (MVA) integrating different atmospheric levels (sea level pressure, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa) was undertaken. The observed data used for this study was the 20th Century Reanalysis. The Max Planck Institute Earth system model was used to study two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) during the 21st century. The model was calibrated given the variability in the climate scenario, using the Quantile-Quantile mapping transformation (Q-Q). The MVA applied to the observed period (1990-2015) distinguish three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, associated with HWE recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation related to persistent anticyclone periods. These patterns were also detected in the control simulated period (1961-2005) after the Q-Q calibration, preserving, therefore, the climatic variability: the number of HWE during the warm period (1990-2005) is twice more than during the cold period (1976-1989) due to an intensification of the warm masses. In the RCP 4.5 scenario (2006-2100 period) a positive and significant trend is shown in synoptic patterns which provoke HWE in Barcelona, especially during August; in the RCP 8.5 scenario there is no significant trend, but the intensification of the warm masses is higher.

Long-term Satellite NDVI Data Sets: Evaluating Their Ability to Detect Ecosystem Functional Changes in South America.

PubMed

Baldi, Germán; Nosetto, Marcelo D; Aragón, Roxana; Aversa, Fernando; Paruelo, José M; Jobbágy, Esteban G

2008-09-03

In the last decades, South American ecosystems underwent important functional modifications due to climate alterations and direct human intervention on land use and land cover. Among remotely sensed data sets, NOAA-AVHRR "Normalized Difference Vegetation Index" (NDVI) represents one of the most powerful tools to evaluate these changes thanks to their extended temporal coverage. In this paper we explored the possibilities and limitations of three commonly used NOAA-AVHRR NDVI series (PAL, GIMMS and FASIR) to detect ecosystem functional changes in the South American continent. We performed pixel-based linear regressions for four NDVI variables (average annual, maximum annual, minimum annual and intra-annual coefficient of variation) for the 1982-1999 period and (1) analyzed the convergences and divergences of significant multi-annual trends identified across all series, (2) explored the degree of aggregation of the trends using the O-ring statistic, and (3) evaluated observed trends using independent information on ecosystem functional changes in five focal regions. Several differences arose in terms of the patterns of change (the sign, localization and total number of pixels with changes). FASIR presented the highest proportion of changing pixels (32.7%) and GIMMS the lowest (16.2%). PAL and FASIR data sets showed the highest agreement, with a convergence of detected trends on 71.2% of the pixels. Even though positive and negative changes showed substantial spatial aggregation, important differences in the scale of aggregation emerged among the series, with GIMMS showing the smaller scale (≤11 pixels). The independent evaluations suggest higher accuracy in the detection of ecosystem changes among PAL and FASIR series than with GIMMS, as they detected trends that match expected shifts. In fact, this last series eliminated most of the long term patterns over the continent. For example, in the "Eastern Paraguay" and "Uruguay River margins" focal regions, the extensive changes due to land use and land cover change expansion were detected by PAL and FASIR, but completely ignored by GIMMS. Although the technical explanation of the differences remains unclear and needs further exploration, we found that the evaluation of this type of remote sensing tools should not only be focused at the level of assumptions (i.e. physical or mathematical aspects of image processing), but also at the level of results (i.e. contrasting observed patterns with independent proofs of change). We finally present the online collaborative initiative "Land ecosystem change utility for South America", which facilitates this type of evaluations and helps to identify the most important functional changes of the continent.

Long-term Satellite NDVI Data Sets: Evaluating Their Ability to Detect Ecosystem Functional Changes in South America

PubMed Central

Baldi, Germán; Nosetto, Marcelo D.; Aragón, Roxana; Aversa, Fernando; Paruelo, José M.; Jobbágy, Esteban G.

2008-01-01

In the last decades, South American ecosystems underwent important functional modifications due to climate alterations and direct human intervention on land use and land cover. Among remotely sensed data sets, NOAA-AVHRR “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index” (NDVI) represents one of the most powerful tools to evaluate these changes thanks to their extended temporal coverage. In this paper we explored the possibilities and limitations of three commonly used NOAA-AVHRR NDVI series (PAL, GIMMS and FASIR) to detect ecosystem functional changes in the South American continent. We performed pixel-based linear regressions for four NDVI variables (average annual, maximum annual, minimum annual and intra-annual coefficient of variation) for the 1982-1999 period and (1) analyzed the convergences and divergences of significant multi-annual trends identified across all series, (2) explored the degree of aggregation of the trends using the O-ring statistic, and (3) evaluated observed trends using independent information on ecosystem functional changes in five focal regions. Several differences arose in terms of the patterns of change (the sign, localization and total number of pixels with changes). FASIR presented the highest proportion of changing pixels (32.7%) and GIMMS the lowest (16.2%). PAL and FASIR data sets showed the highest agreement, with a convergence of detected trends on 71.2% of the pixels. Even though positive and negative changes showed substantial spatial aggregation, important differences in the scale of aggregation emerged among the series, with GIMMS showing the smaller scale (≤11 pixels). The independent evaluations suggest higher accuracy in the detection of ecosystem changes among PAL and FASIR series than with GIMMS, as they detected trends that match expected shifts. In fact, this last series eliminated most of the long term patterns over the continent. For example, in the “Eastern Paraguay” and “Uruguay River margins” focal regions, the extensive changes due to land use and land cover change expansion were detected by PAL and FASIR, but completely ignored by GIMMS. Although the technical explanation of the differences remains unclear and needs further exploration, we found that the evaluation of this type of remote sensing tools should not only be focused at the level of assumptions (i.e. physical or mathematical aspects of image processing), but also at the level of results (i.e. contrasting observed patterns with independent proofs of change). We finally present the online collaborative initiative “Land ecosystem change utility for South America”, which facilitates this type of evaluations and helps to identify the most important functional changes of the continent. PMID:27873821

Overview of Global, Regional, and National Routine Vaccination Coverage Trends and Growth Patterns From 1980 to 2009: Implications for Vaccine-Preventable Disease Eradication and Elimination Initiatives

PubMed Central

Wallace, Aaron S.; Ryman, Tove K.; Dietz, Vance

2015-01-01

Background Review of the historical growth in annual vaccination coverage across countries and regions can better inform decision makers’ development of future goals and strategies to improve routine vaccination services. Methods Using the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children's Fund estimates of annual national third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis–containing vaccine (DTP3) and third dose of polio vaccine (POL3) coverage for 1980–2009, we calculated the mean absolute annual rate of change in national DTP3 coverage among all countries (globally) and among countries within each WHO region, as well as the number of years taken by each region to reach specific regional coverage levels. Last, we assessed differences in mean absolute annual rate of change in DTP3 coverage, stratified by baseline level of DTP3 coverage. Results During the 1980s, global DTP3 coverage increased a mean of 5.3 percentage points/year. Annual rate of change decreased to 0.5 percentage points/year in the 1990s and then increased to 0.9 percentage points/year during the 2000s. Mean annual rate of change in coverage across all countries was highest (9.2 percentage points) when national coverage levels were 26%–30% and lowest (−0.9 percentage points) when national coverage levels were 96%–100%. Regional differences existed as both WHO South-East Asia Region and WHO African Region countries experienced mean negative DTP3 coverage growth at lower coverage levels (81%–85%) than other regions. The regions that have achieved 95% DTP3 coverage (Americas, Western Pacific, and European) took 25–29 years to reach that level from a level of 50% DTP3 coverage. POL3 coverage change trends were similar to described DTP3 coverage change trends. Conclusions Mean national coverage growth patterns across all regions are nonlinear as coverage levels increase. Saturation points of mean 0 percentage-point growth in annual coverage varies by region and require further investigation. The achievement of >90% routine coverage is observed to take decades, which has implications for disease eradication and elimination initiatives. PMID:25316875

Assessment of surface-water quantity and quality, Eagle River watershed, Colorado, 1947-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Cory A.; Moore, Jennifer L.; Richards, Rodney J.

2011-01-01

The spatial patterns for concentrations of trace metals (aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, and zinc) indicate an increase in dissolved concentrations of these metals near historical mining areas in the Eagle River and several tributaries near Belden. In general, concentrations decrease downstream from mining areas. Concentrations typically are near or below reporting limits in Gore Creek and other tributaries within the watershed. Concentrations for trace elements (arsenic, selenium, and uranium) in the watershed usually are below the reporting limit, and no prevailing spatial patterns were observed in the data. Step-trend analysis and temporal-trend analysis provide evidence that remediation of historical mining areas in the upper Eagle River have led to observed decreases in metals concentrations in many surface-waters. Comparison of pre- and post-remediation concentrations for many metals indicates significant decreases in metals concentrations for cadmium, manganese, and zinc at sites downstream from the Eagle Mine Superfund Site. Some sites show order of magnitude reductions in median concentrations between these two periods. Evaluation of monotonic trends for dissolved metals concentrations show downward trends at numerous sites in, and downstream from, historic mining areas. The spatial pattern of nutrients shows lower concentrations on many tributaries and on the Eagle River upstream from Red Cliff with increases in nutrients downstream of major urban areas. Seasonal variations show that for many nutrient species, concentrations tend to be lowest May-June and highest January-March. The gradual changes in concentrations between seasons may be related to dilution effects from increases and decreases in streamflow. Upward trends in nutrients between the towns of Gypsum and Avon were detected for nitrate, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus. An upward trend in nitrite was detected in Gore Creek. No trends were detected in un-ionized ammonia within the ERW. Exceedances of State water-quality standards (nitrite, nitrate, and un-ionized ammonia) and levels higher than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations (total phosphorus) occur in several areas within the ERW. The majority of the exceedances are from comparisons to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency total phosphorus recommendations. A positive correlation was observed between suspended sediment and total phosphorus. An upward trend in total dissolved solids in Gore Creek may be the result of increases in chloride salts. Highly significant trends were detected in sodium, potassium, and chloride with a significant upward trend in magnesium and a weakly significant upward trend in calcium. A quantitative analysis of the relative abundance of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium to the available anions suggests that chloride salts likely are the source for the detected upward trends because chloride is the only commonly occurring anion with a trend in Gore Greek. A potential source for the observed chloride salts may be the chemical anti-icing and deicing products used during winter road maintenance in municipal areas and on Interstate-70. A downward trend in dissolved solids in the Eagle River between Gypsum and Avon may be contributing to the detected trend on the Eagle River at Gypsum. Significant downward trends were detected in specific ions such as calcium, magnesium, sulfate, and silica. Measures of total dissolved solids as well as comparisons to specific ions show that in water-quality samples within the ERW concentrations generally are lower in the headwaters, with increases downstream from Wolcott. Differences in concentrations likely result from increased abundance of salt-bearing geologic units downstream from Avon. Few sites had measured concentrations that exceeded the State standards for chloride.

The Effect of Recent Trends on Dental Hygiene.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglass, Chester W.

1991-01-01

Six trends affecting dental hygiene practice are discussed: demographic changes; disease pattern changes; higher societal expectations; financing and delivery system changes; technological advancement; and regulatory and legislative trends. It is argued that, though the trends reflect positively on dental hygiene, practitioners need to increase…

Results of a pilot study in the U.S. and Vietnam to assess the utility and acceptability of a multi-level pregnancy test (MLPT) for home monitoring of hCG trends after assisted reproduction.

PubMed

Shochet, Tara; Comstock, Ioanna A; Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Nhu; Westphal, Lynn M; Sheldon, Wendy R; Loc, Ly Thai; Blum, Jennifer; Winikoff, Beverly; Blumenthal, Paul D

2017-08-22

To evaluate the utility and acceptability of using multi-level pregnancy tests (MLPTs) at home to monitor hCG trends following assisted reproductive technology (ART). One hundred and four women presenting for ART at either Stanford Medicine Fertility and Reproductive Health Clinic (Stanford, CA) or Hung Vuong Hospital (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) participated in this pilot study. Women were asked to perform the MLPT at home, primarily on days when they were also scheduled to receive standard clinic-based serum hCG testing. These tests were administered up to 6 times over the 6-week period following embryo transfer or intrauterine insemination (IUI). Concordance of serial hCG readings for each time point was assessed by comparing trends in urine MLPT results with trends in serum hCG. Stable or increasing hCG level was interpreted as an indication of a progressing pregnancy, while a declining hCG was interpreted as a lack of established or progressing pregnancy. At study end, all participants were asked about the acceptability and convenience of using the MLPT at home for monitoring hCG trends following ART. Data from both urine and serum testing are available for 156 of 179 clinic visits (87.2%). There was high concordance of serial trend results between the two types of tests: among the 156 sets of serum and urine hCG data points, 150 (96.2%) showed a matching trend in hCG pattern and 6 (3.8%) resulted in a discordant trend. Seventy-three percent of women reported being satisfied or very satisfied with using the MLPTs at home. Almost all (96.6%) said that the MLPT was easy or very easy to use. The MLPT offers women and health care providers a client-friendly diagnostic tool to detect very early pregnancy and monitor its progress. This study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01846403 (May 1, 2013), and NCT01919502 (August 5, 2013).

Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China.

PubMed

Duan, Weili; He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

2018-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004-2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic during wintertime: Variability and Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, Annette; Maturilli, Marion; Graham, Robert; Matthes, Heidrun; Handorf, Doerthe; Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen; Moore, John

2017-04-01

Extreme cyclone events are of significant interest as they can transport much heat, moisture, and momentum poleward. Associated impacts are warming and sea-ice breakup. Recently, several examples of such extreme weather events occurred in winter (e.g. during the N-ICE2015 campaign north of Svalbard and the Frank North Atlantic storm during the end of December 2015). With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny Alesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by a extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny Alesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data) and a deepening of at least 6 hPa/6 hours. Areas of highest frequency of occurrence of extreme cyclones are south/southeast of Greenland (corresponding to the Islandic low), between Norway and Svalbard and in the Barents/Kara Seas. The time series of the number of occurrence of extreme cyclone events for Ny Alesund/N-ICE show considerable interannual variability. The trend is not consistent through the winter, but we detect an increase in early winter and a slight decrease in late winter. The former is due to the increased occurrence of longer events at the expense of short events. Furthermore, the difference patterns of the frequency of events for months following the September with high and low Arctic sea-ice extent ("Low minus high sea ice") conforms with the change patterns of extreme cyclones numbers (frequency of events "2000-2015 minus 1979-1994") and with the trend patterns. This indicates that the changes in extreme cyclone occurrence in early winter are associated with sea-ice changes (regional feedback). In contrast, different mechanisms via large-scale circulation changes/teleconnections seem to play a role in late winter.

Trends and weekly and seasonal cycles in the rate of errors in the clinical management of hospitalized patients.

PubMed

Buckley, David; Bulger, David

2012-08-01

Studies on the rate of adverse events in hospitalized patients seldom examine temporal patterns. This study presents evidence of both weekly and annual cycles. The study is based on a large and diverse data set, with nearly 5 yrs of data from a voluntary staff-incident reporting system of a large public health care provider in rural southeastern Australia. The data of 63 health care facilities were included, ranging from large non-metropolitan hospitals to small community and aged health care facilities. Poisson regression incorporating an observation-driven autoregressive effect using the GLARMA framework was used to explain daily error counts with respect to long-term trend and weekly and annual effects, with procedural volume as an offset. The annual pattern was modeled using a first-order sinusoidal effect. The rate of errors reported demonstrated an increasing annual trend of 13.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.6% to 16.3%); however, this trend was only significant for errors of minor or no harm to the patient. A strong "weekend effect" was observed. The incident rate ratio for the weekend versus weekdays was 2.74 (95% CI 2.55 to 2.93). The weekly pattern was consistent for incidents of all levels of severity, but it was more pronounced for less severe incidents. There was an annual cycle in the rate of incidents, the number of incidents peaking in October, on the 282 nd day of the year (spring in Australia), with an incident rate ratio 1.09 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.14) compared to the annual mean. There was no so-called "killing season" or "July effect," as the peak in incident rate was not related to the commencement of work by new medical school graduates. The major finding of this study is the rate of adverse events is greater on weekends and during spring. The annual pattern appears to be unrelated to the commencement of new graduates and potentially results from seasonal variation in the case mix of patients or the health of the medical workforce that alters health care performance. These mechanisms will need to be elucidated with further research.

On the stationarity of Floods in west African rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NKA, B. N.; Oudin, L.; Karambiri, H.; Ribstein, P.; Paturel, J. E.

2014-12-01

West Africa undergoes a big change since the years 1970-1990, characterized by very low precipitation amounts, leading to low stream flows in river basins, except in the Sahelian region where the impact of human activities where pointed out to justify the substantial increase of floods in some catchments. More recently, studies showed an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events, and according to observations made over the region, increase of flood events is also noticeable during the rainy season. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity on flood events is questionable and the reliability of flood evolution and climatic patterns is justified. In this work, we analyzed the trends of floods events for several catchments in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of Burkina Faso. We used thirteen tributaries of large river basins (Niger, Nakambe, Mouhoun, Comoé) for which daily rainfall and flow data were collected from national hydrological and meteorological services of the country. We used Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests to detect trends and break points in the annual time series of 8 rainfall indices and the annual maximum discharge records. We compare the trends of precipitation indices and flood size records to analyze the possible causality link between floods size and rainfall pattern. We also analyze the stationary of the frequency of flood exceeding the ten year return period level. The samples were extracted by a Peak over threshold method and the quantification of change in flood frequency was assessed by using a test developed by Lang M. (1995). The results exhibit two principal behaviors. Generally speaking, no trend is detected on catchments annual maximum discharge, but positive break points are pointed out in a group of three right bank tributaries of the Niger river that are located in the sahelian region between 300mm to 650mm. These same catchments show as well an increase of the yearly number of flood greater than the ten year flood since 1980. However, there is no consistency between rain fall pattern and flood size pattern in the entire region.

Decadal sea level variability in the East China Sea linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Jae-Hong; Song, Y. Tony

2017-07-01

In view of coastal community's need for adapting to sea level rise (SLR), understanding and predicting regional variability on decadal to longer time scales still remain a challenging issue in SLR research. Here, we have examined the low-frequency sea level signals in the East China Sea (ECS) from the 50-year hindcast of a non-Boussinesq ocean model in comparison with data sets from altimeters, tide-gauges, and steric sea level produced by in-situ profiles. It is shown that the mean sea levels in the ECS represent significant decadal fluctuations over the past 50 years, with a multi-decadal trend shift since the mid-1980s compared to the preceding 30 years. The decadal fluctuations in sea level are more closely linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflects the multi-decadal trend shift. A composite analysis indicates that wind patterns associated with the NPGO is shown to control the decadal variability of the western subtropical North Pacific. A positive NPGO corresponds to cyclonic wind stress curl anomaly in the western subtropical regions that results in a higher sea level in the ECS, particularly along the continental shelf, and lower sea levels off the ECS. The reverse occurs in years of negative NPGO.

Long-term patterns of urinary pyroglutamic acid in healthy humans.

PubMed

Lord, Richard S

2016-02-01

An investigation of human biological variation in urinary organic acids, including pyroglutamic acid along with 39 other compounds, was previously reported in which levels were determined for 8 weeks in healthy adult subjects. Here, unique, 4-week-long physiological trends for one of those compounds, pyroglutamic acid (PGA), are reported. When PGA levels for an individual rose above 40 μg/mg creatinine, 4-week downward progressions occurred until levels reached values near 15 μg/mg creatinine and the pattern was reversed when levels for an individual were below that level in the early weeks of the study. The pattern was especially prominent among 8 of the 13 menstruating female subjects suggesting a possible association with metabolic stress of the menstrual cycle. However, it also appeared in 3 of the 8 male subjects where other sources of metabolic stress may be present. The menstrual association is consistent with estrogen-mediated increase in oxidative stress. Since PGA is linked to glutathione turnover, the consistency of extreme values across all individuals displaying the pattern indicates that 15 and 40 μg/mg creatinine may represent limits that trigger shifts in sulfur amino acid metabolism. This is the first observation of approximate month-long cyclic responses in a glutathione-related urinary marker in humans. © 2016 The Author. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Physiological Society and The Physiological Society.

Interactions between traditional regional determinants and socio-economic status on dietary patterns in a sample of French men.

PubMed

Perrin, Anne-Elisabeth; Dallongeville, Jean; Ducimetière, Pierre; Ruidavets, Jean-Bernard; Schlienger, Jean-Louis; Arveiler, Dominique; Simon, Chantal

2005-01-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the respective contributions of regional and socio-economic factors to dietary pattern. We used the data from the final MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in Cardiovascular disease) population survey conducted in the three French centres in 1995-7 among a representative sample of 976 men aged 45-64 years. Dietary intake was assessed using a 3-d record method. Dietary patterns were identified by a factor analysis, based on fifteen food items. An analysis of variance was then used to study their relationship with regional and socio-economic determinants. Two major dietary patterns were identified: a 'Western diet', characterized by high intakes of sugar and sweets, grains, butter, added fats, eggs, potatoes and cheese; a 'prudent diet', mainly distinguished by high intakes of fruit, vegetables, olive oil and fish and low intakes of alcohol, high-fat meat and potatoes. Strong associations were mostly observed with the 'prudent diet' pattern, with a significant relationship with region, educational and income-tax levels, leisure-time physical activity and smoking status. There was also a statistically significant interaction between region and educational level (P=0.05), and between region and income-tax level (P=0.03), indicating that the influence of socio-economic factors is different among regions. In conclusion, these results indicate large regional and socio-economic differences in the dietary patterns of this French male population. When considering the 'prudent diet' pattern, they also suggest that traditional regional influences may now be overcome by socio-economic determinants.

Circulation system configuration characteristics of four rainfall patterns in summer over the East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Junhu; Yang, Liu; Feng, Guolin

2018-02-01

In this study, the simultaneous atmospheric circulation system configuration characteristics of the four rainfall patterns (FRP) over the East China during the period 1951-2015 are analyzed in order to investigate their formation mechanisms. The results confirm that the FRP possess obvious differences in the upper-level, middle-level, and lower-level troposphere. In northern China rainfall pattern (NCP) years, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJS) shows a northward trend, with a higher intensity than normal; the blocking high (BH) in the mid-high latitudes is inactive; and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tends to be stronger, with a location to the north of its normal position. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is stronger, which promotes vapor transport to northern China, and this leads to increased rainfall. In intermediate rainfall pattern (IRP) years, the EAJS position is close to that in normal years; the BH is inactive; the WPSH tends to be weaker, with a location to the east of its normal position; and the EASM is stronger, which is conducive to increased rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin. In Yangtze River rainfall pattern (YRP) years, the circulations are found to be almost opposite in their features to those in NCP years. In South China rainfall pattern (SCP) years, the circulations are found to be almost opposite in their features to those in IRP years. This leads to increased rainfall over South China. Therefore, the different circulation system configuration characteristics lead to the different rainfall patterns.

Highway Safety: Trends in Highway Fatalities 1975-1987

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-03-01

pattern of fatalities as the overall trend. This pattern applies to many of the general fatality statis- tics we present, and, in all cases, it serves as a...Fatalities 1975-87 Appemfx IV Vehicle-Related Statistics Figure IV.17: Vehicle Fatalities by Direction of Principal Impacto NNNumber of PddUlsils lwam 0 1975

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

Ambient air quality trends and driving factor analysis in Beijing, 1983-2007.

PubMed

Zhang, Ju; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Miao, Hong; Wang, Xiaoke

2011-01-01

The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air quality under the interaction of pollution and control in this mega city has attracted much attention. We analyzed the changes in ambient air quality in Beijing since the 1980's using the Daniel trend test based on data from long-term monitoring stations. The results showed that different pollutants displayed three trends: a decreasing trend, an increasing trend and a flat trend. SO2, dustfall, B[a]P, NO2 and PM10 fit decreasing trend pattern, while NOx showed an increasing trend, and CO, ozone pollution, total suspended particulate (TSP), as well as Pb fit the flat trend. The cause of the general air pollution in Beijing has changed from being predominantly related to coal burning to mixed traffic exhaust and coal burning related pollution. Seasonally, the pollution level is typically higher during the heating season from November to the following March. The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality. Changes of industrial structure and improved energy efficiency, the use of clean energy and preferred use of clean coal, reduction in pollution sources, and implementation of advanced environmental standards have all contributed to the reduction in air pollution, particularly since 1998.

Panel data analysis of cardiotocograph (CTG) data.

PubMed

Horio, Hiroyuki; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Ikeda, Tomoaki

2013-01-01

Panel data analysis is a statistical method, widely used in econometrics, which deals with two-dimensional panel data collected over time and over individuals. Cardiotocograph (CTG) which monitors fetal heart rate (FHR) using Doppler ultrasound and uterine contraction by strain gage is commonly used in intrapartum treatment of pregnant women. Although the relationship between FHR waveform pattern and the outcome such as umbilical blood gas data at delivery has long been analyzed, there exists no accumulated FHR patterns from large number of cases. As time-series economic fluctuations in econometrics such as consumption trend has been studied using panel data which consists of time-series and cross-sectional data, we tried to apply this method to CTG data. The panel data composed of a symbolized segment of FHR pattern can be easily handled, and a perinatologist can get the whole FHR pattern view from the microscopic level of time-series FHR data.

The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Canada and their connections to large-scale climate patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.

2017-12-01

In the past few decades, there have been more extreme climate events around the world, and Canada has also suffered from numerous extreme precipitation events. In this paper, trend analysis, change point analysis, probability distribution function, principal component analysis and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in Canada. Ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated using long-term daily precipitation data from 164 gauging stations. Several large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected to analyze the relationships between extreme precipitation and climate indices. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and surface temperature were employed to investigate the potential causes of the trends.The results show statistically significant positive trends for most indices, which indicate increasing extreme precipitation. The majority of indices display more increasing trends along the southern border of Canada while decreasing trends dominate in the central Canadian Prairies (CP). In addition, strong connections are found between the extreme precipitation and climate indices and the effects of climate pattern differ for each region. The seasonal CAPE, specific humidity, and temperature are found to be closely related to Canadian extreme precipitation.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

Associations between physical activity patterns and dietary patterns in a representative sample of Polish girls aged 13-21 years: a cross-sectional study (GEBaHealth Project).

PubMed

Wadolowska, Lidia; Kowalkowska, Joanna; Lonnie, Marta; Czarnocinska, Jolanta; Jezewska-Zychowicz, Marzena; Babicz-Zielinska, Ewa

2016-08-02

Similar to other countries, trends of decreasing levels of physical activity (PA) and an increasing prevalence of unhealthy dietary patterns are observed among girls in Poland. Better understanding of potentially inter-related behaviours within this population can help to design tailored interventions. The purpose of this study was to determine associations between PA patterns and dietary patterns in a representative sample of Polish girls. Girls aged 13-21 years (n = 1107) were randomly selected for the study. PA was assessed using International Physical Activity Questionnaire - Long (IPAQ-L). Dietary data were collected with food frequency questionnaires. PA patterns and dietary patterns were drawn separately by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Logistic regression was used to find the associations between PA patterns and dietary patterns. Four major PA patterns ('School/work activity', 'Active recreation', 'Yard activity' and 'Walking and domestic activity') and four dietary patterns ('Traditional Polish', 'Fruit & vegetables', 'Fast food & sweets' and 'Dairy & fats') were identified. Level of PA was the highest in the upper tertile of 'School/work activity' pattern (mean 1372.2 MET-minutes/week, 95 % Confidence Intervals [CI]: 1285.9-1458.5). Girls in upper tertiles of 'Yard activity', 'Active recreation' and 'School/work activity' patterns had significantly higher chances of being in the upper tertile of the 'Fruit and vegetables' dietary pattern (odds ratio [OR] 2.17, 95 % CI: 1.50-3.14, p < 0.0001; OR 2.02, 95 % CI: 1.41-2.91; p < 0.001 and OR 1.76, 95 % CI: 1.24-2.51, p < 0.01 respectively; all adjusted for confounders) in comparison to bottom tertiles. Weak, but significant inverse associations were found between upper tertiles of 'Active recreation' and 'Yard activity' patterns and unhealthy dietary patterns. We found associations between PA patterns and dietary patterns in the population of Polish girls. Girls with the highest adherence to the 'School/work activity' pattern had the highest levels of PA and presented pro-healthy dietary behaviours. School should be recognised as potentially efficient and important setting to maximise girls' PA potential. The after-school time is the area that should also be targeted to increase daily PA or to at least sustain the level of PA after completing education.

Landscape trends in Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States ecoregions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, J.A.; Stehman, S.V.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2003-01-01

Landscape pattern and composition metrics are potential indicators for broad-scale monitoring of change and for relating change to human and ecological processes. We used a probability sample of 20-km × 20-km sampling blocks to characterize landscape composition and pattern in five US ecoregions: the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain, Southeastern Plains, Northern Piedmont, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge Mountains. Land use/land cover (LULC) data for five dates between 1972 and 2000 were obtained for each sample block. Analyses focused on quantifying trends in selected landscape pattern metrics by ecoregion and comparing trends in land cover proportions and pattern metrics among ecoregions. Repeated measures analysis of the landscape pattern documented a statistically significant trend in all five ecoregions towards a more fine-grained landscape from the early 1970s through 2000. The ecologically important forest cover class also became more fine-grained with time (i.e., more numerous and smaller forest patches). Trends in LULC, forest edge, and forest percent like adjacencies differed among ecoregions. These results suggest that ecoregions provide a geographically coherent way to regionalize the story of national land use and land cover change in the United States. This study provides new information on LULC change in the southeast United States. Previous studies of the region from the 1930s to the 1980s showed a decrease in landscape fragmentation and an increase in percent forest, while this study showed an increase in forest fragmentation and a loss of forest cover.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-07-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. The derived trends were validated for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail. Overall, positive trends in annual streamflow appear to reflect the marked wetting trends of the winter months, whereas negative annual trends result primarily from a widespread decrease in streamflow in spring and summer months, consistent with a decrease in summer low flow in large parts of Europe. High flow appears to have increased in rain-dominated hydrological regimes, whereas an inconsistent or decreasing signal was found in snow-dominated regimes. The different models agreed on the predominant continental-scale pattern of trends, but in some areas disagreed on the magnitude and even the direction of trends, particularly in transition zones between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing observed trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow were more variable - both among models and in the spatial patterns of agreement between models and the observations. The use of models to display changes in these hydrological characteristics should therefore be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty.

Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

2017-04-01

Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those observed in developed countries (US, EU and Japan) where a decreasing trend for both SO2 and NO2 has been observed since 1990s, the observed upward and downward trend found in Henan is similar to those found in North China Plain and other parts of China. The spatial and temporal trend analyses of SO2 and NO2 in four other regions in Henan further indicate a similar trend to those observed in Henan Province, albeit with different increasing and decreasing rate. The results provide regulatory agency to develop action plans to combat air pollution problem in general and SO2 and NO2 problems in particular in Henan. The implications of our findings and recommendations for decision makers are discussed in the paper.

Assessment of the magnitude and recent trends in satellite-derived ground-level nitrogen dioxide over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharol, S. K.; Martin, R. V.; Philip, S.; Boys, B.; Lamsal, L. N.; Jerrett, M.; Brauer, M.; Crouse, D. L.; McLinden, C.; Burnett, R. T.

2015-10-01

We estimate ground-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations from the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) over North America for the period 2005-2012. A chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) is used to account for effects of the NO2 profile on the column retrieval, and to relate OMI NO2 columns to ground-level concentrations. The magnitude of the period-mean OMI-derived NO2 concentrations is evaluated versus in situ measurements from air quality networks yielding a significant spatial correlation (r = 0.81) but OMI-derived values are lower with a slope of 0.4. Comparison of the in situ concentrations versus spatially resolved concentrations estimated from land use regression models reveals that this difference partially arises from representativeness difference due to preferential placement of in situ monitors at locations with enhanced NO2, coupled with the OMI horizontal resolution. In situ observations provide information about local concentrations while OMI offers area-averaged information. The remaining difference is less readily explained and appears to include a combination of the effects of local unresolved geophysical processes affecting both the NO2 retrieval and the vertical profile used to relate the column to ground level. We also evaluate trends over North America from OMI and in situ measurements for the period of 2005-2012. OMI derived ground-level NO2 well reproduces the spatial pattern of the in situ trends (r = 0.77) and the slope of 0.4 versus the trend from in situ monitors is consistent with the slope versus mean concentrations. Absolute regional trends inferred from in situ measurements alone may overestimate area average changes. Nonetheless coincidently sampled ground-level NO2 concentrations from OMI and in situ measurements for 2005-2012 exhibit similar relative decreases over Eastern (-6.5 ± 2.0%/yr, -7.1 ± 1.3%/yr), Western (-4.5 ± 1.1%/yr, -6.5 ± 0.7%/yr) and Central (-3.3 ± 2.3%/yr, -4.1 ± 0.8%/yr) North America.

Utilizing Electronic Medical Records to Discover Changing Trends of Medical Behaviors Over Time*

PubMed Central

Yin, Liangying; Dong, Wei; He, Chunhua; Duan, Huilong

2017-01-01

Summary Objectives Medical behaviors are playing significant roles in the delivery of high quality and cost-effective health services. Timely discovery of changing frequencies of medical behaviors is beneficial for the improvement of health services. The main objective of this work is to discover the changing trends of medical behaviors over time. Methods This study proposes a two-steps approach to detect essential changing patterns of medical behaviors from Electronic Medical Records (EMRs). In detail, a probabilistic topic model, i.e., Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), is firstly applied to disclose yearly treatment patterns in regard to the risk stratification of patients from a large volume of EMRs. After that, the changing trends by comparing essential/critical medical behaviors in a specific time period are detected and analyzed, including changes of significant patient features with their values, and changes of critical treatment interventions with their occurring time stamps. Results We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 12,152 patient cases with a time range of 10 years. Totally, 135 patients features and 234 treatment interventions in three treatment patterns were selected to detect their changing trends. In particular, evolving trends of yearly occurring probabilities of the selected medical behaviors were categorized into six content changing patterns (i.e, 112 growing, 123 declining, 43 up-down, 16 down-up, 35 steady, and 40 jumping), using the proposed approach. Besides, changing trends of execution time of treatment interventions were classified into three occurring time changing patterns (i.e., 175 early-implemented, 50 steady-implemented and 9 delay-implemented). Conclusions Experimental results show that our approach has an ability to utilize EMRs to discover essential evolving trends of medical behaviors, and thus provide significant potential to be further explored for health services redesign and improvement. PMID:28474729

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News

PubMed Central

Nghiem, Le T. P.; Papworth, Sarah K.; Lim, Felix K. S.; Carrasco, Luis R.

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics—approximated using Google search volume—varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public. PMID:27028399

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

PubMed

Nghiem, Le T P; Papworth, Sarah K; Lim, Felix K S; Carrasco, Luis R

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

Evaluating the Accuracy of MODIS Products in the Southern Scean Using Tagged Marine Predators, and Measuring Significant Change in 12 Years of [Chl-a], Zeu and Cloud Fraction Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biermann, L.; Boehme, L.; Guinet, C.

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean is vital to the functioning of our global atmospheric and marine systems. However, this key ocean is also measurably responsive to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Decreased ozone and increases in greenhouse gases appear to be forcing the SAM towards its positive phase, significantly changing wind patterns and, thus, altering mixing and circulation regimes of Southern Ocean waters. Inevitably, these changes must impact on patterns of phytoplankton abundance and distribution. Using remotely sensed data that have been evaluated alongside in situ data collected by tagged southern elephant seals, this work investigates if changes to summer phytoplankton abundance and distribution in the Southern Ocean can already be measured in the 12-year MODIS record. Patterns and trends in surface chlorophyll-a concentration ([Chl-a]), the depth of the 1% light level (Zeu) and mean cloud fraction are examined over time, as well as relative to the SAM. Trends in [Chl-a] and Zeu over the months of October, November and December suggest overall declines in surface phytoplankton, and shifts in timing of blooms. Indeed, by January and February over the 12-year timeseries, trends reverse to suggest increases in phytoplankton abundance. Relative to the increasingly positive SAM, trends of overall decline in phytoplankton abundance are significant only over Decembers. Trends in cloud cover are more difficult to interpret but the Atlantic Ocean appears to be becoming less cloudy, the southern sector of the Pacific Ocean appears to be becoming cloudier, and that the southern sector of the Indian Ocean is most variable over time. Only the increase in cloud over the southern Pacific in Decembers appears to be significantly related to changes to the SAM. Interestingly, in no cases were the changes to [Chl-a], Zeu or cloud cover strictly zonal. The asymmetry of these results reinforces findings from previous studies addressing responses of the MLD (and [Chl-a]) to the SAM.

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

PubMed

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P < 0.05) and best performance compared to linear and exponential models. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict LF cases for a prospective 5 years period, covering 2013-2017. The two-stage predictive model of LF case-pattern between 2013 and 2017 was characterized by a prospective decline within the South-coast County of Grand Bassa over the forecast period and an upward case-trend within the Northern County of Nimba. Case specific exponential increase was predicted for the first 2 years (2013-2014) with a geometric increase over the next 3 years (2015-2017) in Nimba County. This paper describes a translational application of the space-time distribution pattern of LF epidemics, 2008-2012 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

Water and Forest Health: Drought Stress as a Core Driver of Forest Disturbances and Tree Mortality in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. D.; Williams, P.

2012-12-01

Increasing warmth and dry climate conditions have affected large portions of western North America in recent years, causing elevated levels of both chronic and acute forest drought stress. In turn, increases in drought stress amplify the incidence and severity of the most significant forest disturbances in this region, including wildfire, drought-induced tree mortality, and outbreaks of damaging insects and diseases. Regional patterns of drought stress and various forest disturbances are reviewed, including interactions among climate and the various disturbance processes; similar global-scale patterns and trends of drought-amplified forest die-off and high-severity wildfire also are addressed. New research is presented that derives a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the three most widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii) in the southwestern US (Arizona, New Mexico), demonstrating nonlinear escalation of FDSI to levels unprecedented in the past 1000 years, in response to both drought and especially recent warming. This new work further highlights strong correlations between drought stress and amplified forest disturbances (fire, bark beetle outbreaks), and projects that by ca. 2050 anticipated regional warming will cause mean FDSI levels to reach extreme levels that may exceed thresholds for the survival of current tree species in large portions of their current range. Given recent trends of forest disturbance and projections for substantially warmer temperatures and greater drought stress for much of western North America in coming years, the growing risks to western forest health are becoming clear. This emerging understanding suggests an urgent need to determine potentials and methods for managing water on-site to maintain the vigor and resilience of western forests in the face of increasing levels of climate-induced water stress.

Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

2016-04-01

In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

Trends In Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations and Loads In Major River Basins of the South-Central United States, 1993-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rebich, Richard A.; Demcheck, Dennis K.

2008-01-01

Nutrient and sediment data collected at 115 sites by Federal and State agencies from 1993 to 2004 were analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine trends in concentrations and loads for selected rivers and streams that drain into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from the south-central United States, specifically from the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf Basins. Trends observed in the study area were compared to determine potential regional patterns and to determine cause-effect relations with trends in hydrologic and human-induced factors such as nutrient sources, streamflow, and implementation of best management practices. Secondary objectives included calculation of loads and yields for the study period as a basis for comparing the delivery of nutrients and sediment to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from the various rivers within the study area. In addition, loads were assessed at seven selected sites for the period 1980-2004 to give hydrologic perspective to trends in loads observed during 1993-2004. Most study sites (about 64 percent) either had no trends or decreasing trends in streamflow during the study period. The regional pattern of decreasing trends in streamflow during the study period appeared to correspond to moist conditions at the beginning of the study period and the influence of three drought periods during the study period, of which the most extreme was in 2000. Trend tests were completed for ammonia at 49 sites, for nitrite plus nitrate at 69 sites, and for total nitrogen at 41 sites. For all nitrogen constituents analyzed, no trends were observed at half or more of the sites. No regional trend patterns could be confirmed because there was poor spatial representation of the trend sites. Decreasing trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of ammonia were observed at 25 sites. No increasing trends in concentrations of ammonia were noted at any sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate decreased at 7 sites and increased at14 sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of total nitrogen decreased at 2 sites and increased at 12 sites. Improvements to municipal wastewater treatment facilities contributed to the decline of ammonia concentrations at selected sites. Notable increasing trends in nitrite plus nitrate and total nitrogen at selected study sites were attributed to both point and nonpointsources. Trend patterns in total nitrogen generally followed trend patterns in nitrite plus nitrate, which was understandable given that nitrite plus nitrate loads generally were 70-90 percent of the total nitrogen loads at most sites. Population data were used as a surrogate to understand the relation between changes in point sources and nutrient trends because data from wastewater treatment plants were inconsistent for this study area. Although population increased throughout the study area during the study period, there was no observed relation between increasing trends in nitrogen in study area streams and increasing trends in population. With respect to other nitrogen sources, statistical results did suggest that increasing trends in nitrogen could be related to increasing trends in nitrogen from either commercial fertilizer use and/or land application of manure. Loads of ammonia, nitrite plus nitrate, and total nitrogen decreased during the study period, but some trends in nitrogen loads were part of long-term decreases since 1980. For example, ammonia loads were shown to decrease at nearly all sites over the past decade, but at selected sites, these decreasing trends were part of much longer trends since 1980. The Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers contributed the highest nitrogen loads to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as expected; however, nitrogen yields from smaller rivers had similar or higher yields than yields from the Mississippi River. Trend tests were completed for orthophosphorus at 34 sites and for total phosphorus at 52 sites. No trends were observed in abo

The phylogenetic significance of colour patterns in marine teleost larvae

PubMed Central

Baldwin, Carole C

2013-01-01

Ichthyologists, natural-history artists, and tropical-fish aquarists have described, illustrated, or photographed colour patterns in adult marine fishes for centuries, but colour patterns in marine fish larvae have largely been neglected. Yet the pelagic larval stages of many marine fishes exhibit subtle to striking, ephemeral patterns of chromatophores that warrant investigation into their potential taxonomic and phylogenetic significance. Colour patterns in larvae of over 200 species of marine teleosts, primarily from the western Caribbean, were examined from digital colour photographs, and their potential utility in elucidating evolutionary relationships at various taxonomic levels was assessed. Larvae of relatively few basal marine teleosts exhibit erythrophores, xanthophores, or iridophores (i.e. nonmelanistic chromatophores), but one or more of those types of chromatophores are visible in larvae of many basal marine neoteleosts and nearly all marine percomorphs. Whether or not the presence of nonmelanistic chromatophores in pelagic marine larvae diagnoses any major teleost taxonomic group cannot be determined based on the preliminary survey conducted, but there is a trend toward increased colour from elopomorphs to percomorphs. Within percomorphs, patterns of nonmelanistic chromatophores may help resolve or contribute evidence to existing hypotheses of relationships at multiple levels of classification. Mugilid and some beloniform larvae share a unique ontogenetic transformation of colour pattern that lends support to the hypothesis of a close relationship between them. Larvae of some tetraodontiforms and lophiiforms are strikingly similar in having the trunk enclosed in an inflated sac covered with xanthophores, a character that may help resolve the relationships of these enigmatic taxa. Colour patterns in percomorph larvae also appear to diagnose certain groups at the interfamilial, familial, intergeneric, and generic levels. Slight differences in generic colour patterns, including whether the pattern comprises xanthophores or erythrophores, often distinguish species. The homology, ontogeny, and possible functional significance of colour patterns in larvae are discussed. Considerably more investigation of larval colour patterns in marine teleosts is needed to assess fully their value in phylogenetic reconstruction. PMID:24039297

Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, R.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

Historical and potential groundwater drawdown in the Bruneau area, Owyhee County, southwestern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkins, Candice B.; Bartolino, James R.

2012-01-01

Geothermal seeps and springs in the Bruneau area in southwestern Idaho provide a vital but disappearing habitat for the Bruneau hot springsnail (Pyrgulopsis bruneauensis). In order to aid in conservation efforts, a two-part study was conducted (1) to determine trends in groundwater levels over time and (2) to simulate drawdown in aquifers that contribute to the geothermal seeps and springs along the Bruneau River. Seasonal and Regional Kendall tests for trends were used to determine water-level trends over a 20-year monitoring (1990–2010) period. Seasonal Kendall tests were used to calculate trends in groundwater-levels in 22 monitoring wells and indicated statistically significant changes in water level with trends ranging from 0.21 to 1.0 feet per year. Regional Kendall tests were used to calculate drawdown in categories of wells based on five criteria (well depth, distance from Indian Bathtub Spring, geologic unit, regional topographic valley, and temperature). Results from Regional Kendall tests indicate that slope of the trend (in feet per year) increased as a function of well depth; trends in water level as a function of other categories did not exhibit an obvious pattern based on distance from Indian Bathtub Spring, geologic unit, topographic valley, or temperature. Analytical solutions were used to simulate drawdown and recovery in wells using the Theis equation and a range of hydraulic parameters. Drawdown effects were determined by changing the storativity, transmissivity, and flow values over a hypothetical timeline. For example, estimates projected that after 20 years of pumping (at an assumed storativity of 0.002, a transmissivity of 980,000 feet squared per day, and a flow of 100 acre-feet per year), 1 foot of drawdown in the volcanic-rock aquifers would not be detected; however, other estimates using the same time frame but different hydraulic parameters (storativity of 0.001, transmissivity of 13,000 feet squared per day, and 610 acre-feet per year) determined 1 foot of drawdown to be detected as far as 29 miles from the hypothetical pumping well. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effect of changing one hydraulic parameter while keeping the others constant. Many assumptions had to be made about properties of the aquifer in order to calculate effects of drawdown on geothermal seeps and springs. These analyses estimate pumping effects over time; the recovery of groundwater levels would likely take significantly longer to observe than the effects from pumping.

Temporal trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistant Gram-negative bacteria implicated in intensive care unit-acquired infections: a cohort-based surveillance study in Istanbul, Turkey.

PubMed

Durdu, Bulent; Kritsotakis, Evangelos I; Lee, Andrew C K; Torun, Perihan; Hakyemez, Ismail N; Gultepe, Bilge; Aslan, Turan

2018-05-08

This study assessed trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistant intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) in Istanbul, Turkey. Bacterial culture and antibiotic susceptibility data were collected for all GNB causing nosocomial infections in five adult ICUs of a large university hospital during 2012-2015. Multi-resistance patterns were categorised as multidrug (MDR), extensively-drug (XDR) and pandrug (PDR)-resistance. Patterns and trends were assessed using seasonal decomposition and regression analyses. Of 991 pathogenic GNB recorded, most frequent were Acinetobacter baumannii (35%), Klebsiella species (27%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (18%), Escherichia coli (7%) and Enterobacter species (4%). The overall infection rate decreased by 41% from 18.4 to 10.9 cases per 1000 patient-days in 2012 compared to 2015 (p <0.001), mostly representing decreases in bloodstream infections and pneumonias by A. baumannii and P. aeruginosa. XDR proportion in A.baumannii increased from 52% in 2012 to 72% in 2015, but only one isolate was colistin-resistant. Multi-resistance patterns remained stable in Klebsiella, with overall XDR and possible PDR proportions of 14% and 2%, respectively. A back-to-susceptibility trend was noted for P. aeruginosa in which the non-MDR proportion increased from 53% in 2012 to 71% in 2015. 88% of E.coli and 40% of Enterobacter isolates were MDR, but none was XDR. Antimicrobial resistance patterns in pathogenic GNB continuously change over time and may not reflect single-agent resistance trends. The proportionate amount of antimicrobial-resistant GNB may persist despite overall decreasing infection rates. Timely regional surveillance data are thus imperative for optimal infection control. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Chemotherapy of Infection and Cancer. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Research on monitoring land subsidence in Beijing plain area using PS-InSAR technology].

PubMed

Gu, Zhao-Qin; Gong, Hui-Li; Zhang, You-Quan; Lu, Xue-Hui; Wang, Sa; Wang, Rong; Liu, Huan-Huan

2014-07-01

In the present paper, the authors use permanent scatterers synthetic aperture radar interferometry (PS-InSAR) technique and 29 acquisitions by Envisat during 2003 to 2009 to monitor and analyze the spatial-temporal distribution and mechanism characterize of land subsidence in Beijing plain area. The results show that subsidence bowls have been bounded together in Beijing plain area, which covers Chaoyang, Changping, Shunyi and Tongzhou area, and the range of subsidence has an eastward trend. The most serious regional subsidence is mainly distributed by the quaternary depression in Beijing plain area. PS-Insar results also show a new subsidence bowl in Pinggu. What's more, the spatial and temporal distribution of deformation is controlled mainly by faults, such as Liangxiang-Shunyi fault, Huangzhuang-Gaoliying fault, and Nankou-Sunhe fault. The subsidence and level of groundwater in study area shows a good correlation, and the subsidence shows seasonal ups trend during November to March and seasonal downs trend during March to June along with changes in groundwater levels. The contribution of land subsidence is also influenced by stress-strain behavior of aquitards. The compaction of aquitards shows an elastic, plastic, viscoelastic pattern.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

The changing pattern and determinants of declining consanguinity in Jordan during 1990-2012.

PubMed

Islam, M Mazharul

2018-03-01

Consanguinity is a deep rooted cultural trait in Jordan. To examine the patterns and determinants of declining rates of consanguineous marriage in Jordan during 1990-2012 in the context of the changing pattern of socio-economic and demographic conditions. The data come from the 1990 and 2012 Jordan Population and Family Health Surveys (JPFHSs). A total of 6461 women in 1990 and 11,352 women in 2012 were successfully interviewed. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used for data analysis. Consanguinity was found to be widely practiced (35% in 2012) until recent times in Jordan. However, there has been a secular declining trend over the last few decades as the practice of consanguinity has declined from 56% in 1990 to 35% in 2012. Increasing age at marriage and female education, higher level of education of husbands, declining family size, increasing rate of urbanisation and female employment, exposure to mass media and higher economic status appeared as significant predictors of declining consanguinity in Jordan. The findings of this study support Goode's hypothesis of a decrease of consanguinity with modernisation. Although consanguinity is a deeply rooted cultural trend in Jordan, it is gradually losing ground due to modernisation and socio-demographic transition of the country.

Trends and Recent Estimates: Contraceptive Use among U.S. Teens. Child Trends Research Brief. Publication #2006-04

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franzetta, Kerry; Terry-Humen, Elizabeth; Manlove, Jennifer; Ikramullah, Erum

2006-01-01

This Research Brief draws on recently released nationally representative data to provide information on teenagers' patterns of contraceptive use during heterosexual, vaginal intercourse. In this brief, the authors examine these patterns for males and females, for members of racial and ethnic groups, and for younger and older teenagers. Among the…

Patterns and Trends of Canadian Social Work Doctoral Dissertations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothwell, David W.; Lach, Lucyana; Blumenthal, Anne; Akesson, Bree

2015-01-01

The first social work doctoral program in Canada began in 1952. Relatively recently, the number of programs has grown rapidly, doubling in the past 10 years to 14 programs. Despite the expansion there is no systematic understanding of the patterns and trends in doctoral research. In this study we review 248 publicly available dissertations from…

Sunlight Exposure and Breast Density: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Wu, Sheng-Hui; So, Edwin; Lam, Tsz-ping; Woo, Jean; Yuen, PY; Qin, Ling; Ku, Susanna

2013-01-01

Purpose This study aims to assess the association of sunlight exposure with breast cancer risk, measured by the breast density assessed from Tabár's mammographic pattern in Chinese women. Methods A total of 676 premenopausal women were recruited to participate in this study, in which 650 completed a validated sunlight exposure questionnaire via telephone. The mammograms were classified according to Tabár's classification for parenchyma, and patterns IV & V and I, II & III indicated respectively high and low risk mammographic patterns for breast cancer. The odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for sun exposure-related variables were estimated using unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders. Results Among 646 participants, women with high breast cancer risk (Tabár's patterns IV &V) had less hours spent in the sun than those with low risk (I, II & III) at any age stage. A higher level of sunlight exposure was associated with a significantly lower risk having high risk Tabár's pattern. Women aged 40 to 44 years who were in the highest tertile of lifetime total hours spent in the sun had a multi-adjusted OR of 0.41 (95% CI, 0.18-0.92; p for trend=0.03) compared with those in the lowest tertile (>2.19 hr/day vs. <1.32 hr/day). For hours spent in the sun across the ages of 6 to 12 years, the comparable OR was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.15-0.91; p for trend=0.03). Conclusion These findings suggest that higher sunlight exposure is related to a lower risk of having high risk breast density pattern in premenopausal women. Our results also suggest the most relevant period of exposure is during earlier life. PMID:23843849

Annual changes and seasonal variations of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Dongfang; Haixia, Li; Zhang, Longlei; Li, Jiangmin; Nan, Nan

2017-04-01

Many bays have been polluted by Cr due to the rapid increasing of industry, hence understanding the temporal change trends and seasonal patterns is essential to pollution control and environmental remediation. Jiaozhou Bay is a semi-closed bay located in Shandong Province, China. This paper analyzed the annual changes and seasonal variations of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay in 1979-1983. Results showed that for annual changes, Cr contents were showing decreasing trend. For seasonal variations, Cr contents were in order of spring > summer > autumn. In generally, the pollution level of Cr contents in the early stage of China’s Reform and Opening-up was still low. These results were meaningful as basic information for pollution control and environmental remediation in this Bay.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-09-01

Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Discharge behavior of motor units in knee extensors during the initial stage of constant-force isometric contraction at low force level.

PubMed

Kamo, Mifuyu

2002-03-01

To elucidate the strategy of the activity of motor units (MUs) to maintain a constant-force isometric contraction, I examined the behavior of MUs in knee extensor muscles [(vastus medialis (VM), vastus lateralis (VL) and rectus femoris (RF)] during a sustained contraction at 5% of maximal voluntary contraction for 5 min. In all cases, the spike interval exhibited an elongating trend, and two discharge patterns were observed, continuous discharge and decruitment. In continuous-discharge MUs, the trend slope was steep immediately after the onset of constant force (steep phase), and then became gentle (gentle phase). Decruitments were observed frequently during each phase, and additional MU recruitment was observed throughout the contraction. The mean value of recruitment threshold force did not differ among the extensors. The mean spike interval at the onset of constant-force isometric contractions was shorter in RF than in VL. However, there were no differences in the duration and extent of the elongating trend, decruitment time and recruitment time among the extensors. The electromyogram of the antagonist biceps femoris muscle revealed no compensatory change for extensor activity. These results indicated that at a low force level, the strategy employed by the central nervous system to maintain constant force appears to involve cooperation among elongating trends in the spike interval, decruitment following elongation, and additional MU recruitment in synergistic muscles.

Adolescent pregnancy and childbearing: levels and trends in developed countries.

PubMed

Singh, S; Darroch, J E

2000-01-01

Adolescent pregnancy occurs in all societies, but the level of teenage pregnancy and childbearing varies from country to country. A cross-country analysis of birth and abortion measures is valuable for understanding trends, for identifying countries that are exceptional and for seeing where further in-depth studies are needed to understand observed patterns. Birth, abortion and population data were obtained from various sources, such as national vital statistics reports, official statistics, published national and international sources, and government statistical offices. Trend data on adolescent birthrates were compiled for 46 countries over the period 1970-1995. Abortion rates for a recent year were available for 33 of the 46 countries, and data on trends in abortion rates could be gathered for 25 of the 46 countries. The level of adolescent pregnancy varies by a factor of almost 10 across the developed countries, from a very low rate in the Netherlands (12 pregnancies per 1,000 adolescents per year) to an extremely high rate in the Russian Federation (more than 100 per 1,000). Japan and most western European countries have very low or low pregnancy rates (under 40 per 1,000); moderate rates (40-69 per 1,000) occur in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and a number of European countries. A group of five countries--Belarus, Bulgaria, Romania, the Russian Federation and the United States--have pregnancy rates of 70 or more per 1,000. The adolescent birthrate has declined in the majority of industrialized countries over the past 25 years, and in some cases has been more than halved. Similarly, pregnancy rates in 12 of the 18 countries with accurate abortion reporting showed declines. Decreases in the adolescent abortion rate, however, were less prevalent. The trend toward lower adolescent birthrates and pregnancy rates over the past 25 years is widespread and is occurring across the industrialized world, suggesting that the reasons for this general trend are broader than factors limited to any one country: increased importance of education, increased motivation of young people to achieve higher levels of education and training, and greater centrality of goals other than motherhood and family formation for young women.

Evaluation of a New Digital Automated Glycemic Pattern Detection Tool.

PubMed

Comellas, María José; Albiñana, Emma; Artes, Maite; Corcoy, Rosa; Fernández-García, Diego; García-Alemán, Jorge; García-Cuartero, Beatriz; González, Cintia; Rivero, María Teresa; Casamira, Núria; Weissmann, Jörg

2017-11-01

Blood glucose meters are reliable devices for data collection, providing electronic logs of historical data easier to interpret than handwritten logbooks. Automated tools to analyze these data are necessary to facilitate glucose pattern detection and support treatment adjustment. These tools emerge in a broad variety in a more or less nonevaluated manner. The aim of this study was to compare eDetecta, a new automated pattern detection tool, to nonautomated pattern analysis in terms of time investment, data interpretation, and clinical utility, with the overarching goal to identify early in development and implementation of tool areas of improvement and potential safety risks. Multicenter web-based evaluation in which 37 endocrinologists were asked to assess glycemic patterns of 4 real reports (2 continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion [CSII] and 2 multiple daily injection [MDI]). Endocrinologist and eDetecta analyses were compared on time spent to analyze each report and agreement on the presence or absence of defined patterns. eDetecta module markedly reduced the time taken to analyze each case on the basis of the emminens eConecta reports (CSII: 18 min; MDI: 12.5), compared to the automatic eDetecta analysis. Agreement between endocrinologists and eDetecta varied depending on the patterns, with high level of agreement in patterns of glycemic variability. Further analysis of low level of agreement led to identifying areas where algorithms used could be improved to optimize trend pattern identification. eDetecta was a useful tool for glycemic pattern detection, helping clinicians to reduce time required to review emminens eConecta glycemic reports. No safety risks were identified during the study.

Effects of Age, Season, Gender and Urban-Rural Status on Time-Activity: Canadian Human Activity Pattern Survey 2 (CHAPS 2)

PubMed Central

Matz, Carlyn J.; Stieb, David M.; Davis, Karelyn; Egyed, Marika; Rose, Andreas; Chou, Benedito; Brion, Orly

2014-01-01

Estimation of population exposure is a main component of human health risk assessment for environmental contaminants. Population-level exposure assessments require time-activity pattern distributions in relation to microenvironments where people spend their time. Societal trends may have influenced time-activity patterns since previous Canadian data were collected 15 years ago. The Canadian Human Activity Pattern Survey 2 (CHAPS 2) was a national survey conducted in 2010–2011 to collect time-activity information from Canadians of all ages. Five urban and two rural locations were sampled using telephone surveys. Infants and children, key groups in risk assessment activities, were over-sampled. Survey participants (n = 5,011) provided time-activity information in 24-hour recall diaries and responded to supplemental questionnaires concerning potential exposures to specific pollutants, dwelling characteristics, and socio-economic factors. Results indicated that a majority of the time was spent indoors (88.9%), most of which was indoors at home, with limited time spent outdoors (5.8%) or in a vehicle (5.3%). Season, age, gender and rurality were significant predictors of time activity patterns. Compared to earlier data, adults reported spending more time indoors at home and adolescents reported spending less time outdoors, which could be indicative of broader societal trends. These findings have potentially important implications for assessment of exposure and risk. The CHAPS 2 data also provide much larger sample sizes to allow for improved precision and are more representative of infants, children and rural residents. PMID:24557523

Optimality approaches to describe characteristic fluvial patterns on landscapes

PubMed Central

Paik, Kyungrock; Kumar, Praveen

2010-01-01

Mother Nature has left amazingly regular geomorphic patterns on the Earth's surface. These patterns are often explained as having arisen as a result of some optimal behaviour of natural processes. However, there is little agreement on what is being optimized. As a result, a number of alternatives have been proposed, often with little a priori justification with the argument that successful predictions will lend a posteriori support to the hypothesized optimality principle. Given that maximum entropy production is an optimality principle attempting to predict the microscopic behaviour from a macroscopic characterization, this paper provides a review of similar approaches with the goal of providing a comparison and contrast between them to enable synthesis. While assumptions of optimal behaviour approach a system from a macroscopic viewpoint, process-based formulations attempt to resolve the mechanistic details whose interactions lead to the system level functions. Using observed optimality trends may help simplify problem formulation at appropriate levels of scale of interest. However, for such an approach to be successful, we suggest that optimality approaches should be formulated at a broader level of environmental systems' viewpoint, i.e. incorporating the dynamic nature of environmental variables and complex feedback mechanisms between fluvial and non-fluvial processes. PMID:20368257

Financial ratios in diagnostic radiology practices: variability and trends.

PubMed

Hogan, Christopher; Sunshine, Jonathan H

2004-03-01

To evaluate variation in financial ratios for radiology practices nationwide and trends in these ratios and in payments. In 1999, the American College of Radiology surveyed radiology practices by mail. The final response rate was 66%. Weighting was used to make responses representative of all radiology practices in the United States. Self-reported financial ratios (payments, charges, accounts receivable turnover) were analyzed; 449 responses had usable data on these ratios. Comparison with results of a similar 1992 survey and combined analysis with Medicare data on billed charges provided information on trends. All measures of payment collections declined sharply from 1992 to 1999, with the gross collections rate (revenues as percentage of billed charges) decreasing from 71% to 55%. Average payment for a typical radiology service decreased approximately 4% in dollar terms or approximately 19% in inflation-adjusted terms. In 1999, nonmetropolitan practices appeared to fare better than others. Among insurers, Medicaid stood out as a low and slow payer, but neither managed care nor Medicare had a consistent effect on financial ratios. The gross collections rate varied substantially across geographic areas, as did, in an inverse pattern, the level of billed charges. One-quarter of practices had accounts receivable equal to 90 or more days of billings. The opposing geographic pattern of billed charges and gross collection rate suggests that geographic variation in the latter is driven more by variation in billed charges than by variation in payment levels. Radiologists saw a substantial decrease in the real (inflation-adjusted) value of payment per service during the 1990s. The large fraction of practices with accounts receivable of 90 or more days of billings-a level considered potentially imprudent by financial management advisors-suggests that many practices should improve financial management and that state prompt-payment laws have not had a substantial positive effect. Copyright RSNA, 2004

Forecasting Japanese encephalitis incidence from historical morbidity patterns: Statistical analysis with 27 years of observation in Assam, India.

PubMed

Handique, Bijoy K; Khan, Siraj A; Mahanta, J; Sudhakar, S

2014-09-01

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the dreaded mosquito-borne viral diseases mostly prevalent in south Asian countries including India. Early warning of the disease in terms of disease intensity is crucial for taking adequate and appropriate intervention measures. The present study was carried out in Dibrugarh district in the state of Assam located in the northeastern region of India to assess the accuracy of selected forecasting methods based on historical morbidity patterns of JE incidence during the past 22 years (1985-2006). Four selected forecasting methods, viz. seasonal average (SA), seasonal adjustment with last three observations (SAT), modified method adjusting long-term and cyclic trend (MSAT), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) have been employed to assess the accuracy of each of the forecasting methods. The forecasting methods were validated for five consecutive years from 2007-2012 and accuracy of each method has been assessed. The forecasting method utilising seasonal adjustment with long-term and cyclic trend emerged as best forecasting method among the four selected forecasting methods and outperformed the even statistically more advanced ARIMA method. Peak of the disease incidence could effectively be predicted with all the methods, but there are significant variations in magnitude of forecast errors among the selected methods. As expected, variation in forecasts at primary health centre (PHC) level is wide as compared to that of district level forecasts. The study showed that adopted forecasting techniques could reasonably forecast the intensity of JE cases at PHC level without considering the external variables. The results indicate that the understanding of long-term and cyclic trend of the disease intensity will improve the accuracy of the forecasts, but there is a need for making the forecast models more robust to explain sudden variation in the disease intensity with detail analysis of parasite and host population dynamics.

Continental U.S. streamflow trends from 1940 to 2009 and their relationships with watershed spatial characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.; Nelson, Stacy A. C.

2015-08-01

Changes in streamflow are an important area of ongoing research in the hydrologic sciences. To better understand spatial patterns in past changes in streamflow, we examined relationships between watershed-scale spatial characteristics and trends in streamflow. Trends in streamflow were identified by analyzing mean daily flow observations between 1940 and 2009 from 967 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. Results indicated that streamflow across the continental U.S., as a whole, increased while becoming less extreme between 1940 and 2009. However, substantial departures from the continental U.S. (CONUS) scale pattern occurred at the regional scale, including increased annual maxima, decreased annual minima, overall drying trends, and changes in streamflow variability. A subset of watersheds belonging to a reference data set exhibited significantly smaller trend magnitudes than those observed in nonreference watersheds. Boosted regression tree models were applied to examine the influence of watershed characteristics on streamflow trend magnitudes at both the CONUS and regional scale. Geographic location was found to be of particular importance at the CONUS scale while local variability in hydroclimate and topography tended to have a strong influence on regional-scale patterns in streamflow trends. This methodology facilitates detailed, data-driven analyses of how the characteristics of individual watersheds interact with large-scale hydroclimate forces to influence how changes in streamflow manifest.

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Chen, Fang; Xu, Feng; Wang, Xinrui

2017-11-01

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50year), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50year. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in Tmax. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than -0.5 °C/50year in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50year in 1986-2010.

Using drug sales data to evaluate the epidemiology of cardiometabolic risk factors and their inequality: an ecological study on atorvastatin and total cholesterol in Iran.

PubMed

Ahmadvand, Alireza; Farzadfar, Farshad; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Mohammadi, Naser; Holakouie-Naieni, Kourosh

2015-01-01

Statins have been effective medications in lowering serum total cholesterol (TC) concentrations across populations over time. The aim of this study was to estimate national and provincial trends in atorvastatin sales in Iran, to systematically quantify its relationship with socioeconomic indicators, and changes in TC level. In this retrospective ecological study, conducted in Iran, we examined trends in atorvastatin sales, the wealth index (WI) as a validly-available socio-economic indicator, and TC level between 2004 and 2011. The main outcome variable was mean atorvastatin sold in defined daily dose per 100,000 people per day (DPD). We analyzed the relationship between WI and DPD and between DPD and mean TC across time and space. At national level, both mean WI and mean DPD showed increasing trend over time, while we observed decreasing trend for TC. Mean WI and DPD in 2011 was nearly 5 and 50 time that of their respective figures in 2004, while the mean TC decreased for nearly 10%. Increases in both WI and DPD had happened in every province, but with different patterns. The maximum and minimum changes in DPD versus WI were seen in Gilan and North Khorasan respectively. A striking increase occurred in the sales for atorvastatin in Iran from 2004-2012 in most provinces examined. The wealthier a province became, the more sales were seen for atorvastatin. TC optimistically decreased from 2005 to 2011 and its decrease was positively correlated with increasing sales for atorvastatin.

An aerosol climatology for a rapidly growing arid region (southern Arizona): Major aerosol species and remotely sensed aerosol properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorooshian, Armin; Wonaschütz, Anna; Jarjour, Elias G.; Hashimoto, Bryce I.; Schichtel, Bret A.; Betterton, Eric A.

2011-10-01

This study reports a comprehensive characterization of atmospheric aerosol particle properties in relation to meteorological and back trajectory data in the southern Arizona region, which includes two of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the United States (Phoenix and Tucson). Multiple data sets (MODIS, AERONET, OMI/TOMS, MISR, GOCART, ground-based aerosol measurements) are used to examine monthly trends in aerosol composition, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and aerosol size. Fine soil, sulfate, and organics dominate PM2.5 mass in the region. Dust strongly influences the region between March and July owing to the dry and hot meteorological conditions and back trajectory patterns. Because monsoon precipitation begins typically in July, dust levels decrease, while AOD, sulfate, and organic aerosol reach their maximum levels because of summertime photochemistry and monsoon moisture. Evidence points to biogenic volatile organic compounds being a significant source of secondary organic aerosol in this region. Biomass burning also is shown to be a major contributor to the carbonaceous aerosol budget in the region, leading to enhanced organic and elemental carbon levels aloft at a sky-island site north of Tucson (Mt. Lemmon). Phoenix exhibits different monthly trends for aerosol components in comparison with the other sites owing to the strong influence of fossil carbon and anthropogenic dust. Trend analyses between 1988 and 2009 indicate that the strongest statistically significant trends are reductions in sulfate, elemental carbon, and organic carbon, and increases in fine soil during the spring (March-May) at select sites. These results can be explained by population growth, land-use changes, and improved source controls.

The linkages of anthropogenic emissions and meteorology in the rapid increase of particulate matter at a foothill city in the Arawali range of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Ravi; Beig, G.; Jaaffrey, S. N. A.

2014-03-01

The city of Udaipur (24.58°N, 73.68°E) in the province of Rajasthan in the Western part of India has a special significance as it is surrounded by the Arawali mountain ranges on one side and desert on the other side. It is located around the foothills of the rocky Arawali range. It is on the world map due to its tourist attraction. The changing pattern in particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) during the past three years indicates an alarming increasing trend, posing a threat to its environment & tourism sector which regulates its economy to a period during the monsoon and distribution of particulate matter is found to be governed by the meteorology and changes the trend. The level of PM10, which was already above the threshold level in 2010, further increased in 2012. The trend is found to be rapid during the months of October & November where an increase by 37% is observed in 3 years. The level of PM2.5, which is the most hazardous for respiratory system diseases, has now started to cross the ambient air quality standards set by the World Health Organization. The impact is significant during winter when the inversion layer is down due to colder temperature and foreign tourists are a peak giving rise an increased morbidity rate. The linkages of local weather with an anthropogenically induced trend and long range transport of pollutants have been outlined.

Maintaining Moore's law: enabling cost-friendly dimensional scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallik, Arindam; Ryckaert, Julien; Mercha, Abdelkarim; Verkest, Diederik; Ronse, Kurt; Thean, Aaron

2015-03-01

Moore's Law (Moore's Observation) has been driving the progress in semiconductor technology for the past 50 years. The semiconductor industry is at a juncture where significant increase in manufacturing cost is foreseen to sustain the past trend of dimensional scaling. At N10 and N7 technology nodes, the industry is struggling to find a cost-friendly solution. At a device level, technologists have come up with novel devices (finFET, Gate-All-Around), material innovations (SiGe, Ge) to boost performance and reduce power consumption. On the other hand, from the patterning side, the relative slow ramp-up of alternative lithography technologies like EUVL and DSA pushes the industry to adopt a severely multi-patterning-based solution. Both of these technological transformations have a big impact on die yield and eventually die cost. This paper is aimed to analyze the impact on manufacturing cost to keep the Moore's law alive. We have proposed and analyzed various patterning schemes that can enable cost-friendly scaling. We evaluated the impact of EUVL introduction on tackling the high cost of manufacturing. The primary objective of this paper is to maintain Moore's scaling from a patterning perspective and analyzing EUV lithography introduction at a die level.

Blending local scale information for developing agricultural resilience in Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory; Mahiny, A.S; Eilerts, Gary; Rowland, James

2013-01-01

This brief article looks at the intersection of climate, land cover/land use, and population trends in the world's most food insecure country, Ethiopia. As a result of warming in the Indian and Western Pacific oceans, Ethiopia has experienced substantial drying over the past 20 years. We intersect the spatial pattern of this drying with high resolution climatologies, maps of agricultural expansion, population data, and socioeconomic livelihoods information to suggest that the coincidence of drying and agricultural expansion in south-central Ethiopia is likely adversely affecting a densely populated region with high levels of poverty and low wage levels.

Exploring EKC, trends of growth patterns and air pollutants concentration level in Malaysia: A Nemerow Index Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekhet, Hussain A.; >Tahira Yasmin,

2013-06-01

The present study examines an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis by analyzing annual data of air pollutants concentartion and per capita GDP as economic indicator over the (1996-2010) period in Malaysia. Nemerow Index Approach (I) used to generate a measures of air pollution. The results show that ambient air quality indicators supports the EKC hypothesis which stated that pollution levels increase as a country develops, but begin to decrease as rising incomes pass beyond a turning poin. Also, the I result is justifying that most pollutants are showing value less than 1.

Investigating air quality status and air pollutant trends over the Metropolitan Area of Tehran, Iran over the past decade between 2005 and 2014.

PubMed

Jamaati, Hamidreza; Attarchi, Mirsaeed; Hassani, Somayeh; Farid, Elham; Seyedmehdi, Mohammad; Salimi Pormehr, Pegah

2018-06-03

Studies on the trend of air pollution in Tehran as one of the most polluted metropolis in the world are scant, and today Tehran is known for its high levels of air pollution. In this study, the trend of air pollution concentration was evaluated over the past 10 years (2004-2015). The data were collected from 22 stations of the Air Quality Control Company. Daily concentrations of CO, NO2, SO2, O3, PM10 were analyzed using SPSS 16 based on the statistical method, repeated measures, and intra-group test to determine the pattern of each pollutant changes. As a result of the 22 air pollution monitoring stations, NO2 and SO2 concentrations have been increasing over the period of 10 years. The highest anomaly is related to SO2. The CO concentrations represent a descending pattern over the period, although there was a slight increase in 2013 and 2014. The ozone concentrations declined in the following years. The average concentration of PM10 has been rising during the period. Also we evaluated changes of each pollutant in different months and calculated the number of clean, healthy, unhealthy days for sensitive, unhealthy, very unhealthy, and dangerous groups. The study findings illustrated the necessity for larger investment in air pollution abatement. Over ally, trends have been progressed to worsening, the number of healthy days has been declined and the number of unhealthy days has been increased in recent years.

Physical Activity and Heart Rate Variability in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Soares-Miranda, Luisa; Sattelmair, Jacob; Chaves, Paulo; Duncan, Glen; Siscovick, David S; Stein, Phyllis K; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2014-01-01

Background Cardiac mortality and electrophysiologic dysfunction both increase with age. Heart rate variability (HRV) provides indices of autonomic function and electrophysiology that are associated with cardiac risk. How habitual physical activity (PA) among older adults prospectively relates to HRV, including nonlinear indices of erratic sinus patterns, is not established. We hypothesized that increasing levels of both total leisure-time activity and walking would be prospectively associated with more favorable time-domain, frequency-domain, and nonlinear HRV measures in older adults. Methods and Results We evaluated serial longitudinal measures of both PA and 24-hour Holter HRV over 5 years among 985 older US adults in the community-based Cardiovascular Health Study. After multivariable adjustment, greater total leisure-time activity, walking distance, and walking pace were each prospectively associated with specific, more favorable HRV indices, including higher 24-hour standard-deviation-of-all-normal-to-normal-intervals (SDNN, p-trend=0.009, 0.02, 0.06, respectively) and ultra-low-frequency-power (p-trend=0.02, 0.008, 0.16, respectively). Greater walking pace was also associated with higher short-term-fractal-scaling-exponent (p-trend=0.003) and lower Poincare ratio (p-trend=0.02), markers of less erratic sinus patterns. Conclusions Greater total leisure-time activity, as well as walking alone, were prospectively associated with more favorable and specific indices of autonomic function in older adults, including several suggestive of more normal circadian fluctuations and less erratic sinoatrial firing. Our results suggest potential mechanisms that might contribute to lower cardiovascular mortality with habitual PA later in life. PMID:24799513

Nursing workforce policy and the economic crisis: a global overview.

PubMed

Buchan, James; O'May, Fiona; Dussault, Gilles

2013-09-01

To assess the impact of the global financial crisis on the nursing workforce and identify appropriate policy responses. This article draws from international data sources (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD] and World Health Organization), from national data sources (nursing regulatory authorities), and the literature to provide a context in which to examine trends in labor market and health spending indicators, nurse employment, and nurse migration patterns. A variable impact of the crisis at the country level was shown by different changes in unemployment rates and funding of the health sector. Some evidence was obtained of reductions in nurse staffing in a small number of countries. A significant and variable change in the patterns of nurse migration also was observed. The crisis has had a variable impact; nursing shortages are likely to reappear in some OECD countries. Policy responses will have to take account of the changed economic reality in many countries. This article highlights key trends and issues for the global nursing workforce; it then identifies policy interventions appropriate to the new economic realities in many OECD countries. © 2013 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; McGuire, A. David

2018-04-01

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10-100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km2) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30 m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999-2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.

Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska.

PubMed

Lara, Mark J; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; McGuire, A David

2018-04-10

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10-100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km 2 ) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30 m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999-2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.

The Impact of Global Warming on Precipitation Patterns in Ilorin and the Hydrological Balance of the Awun Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayanshola, Ayanniyi; Olofintoye, Oluwatosin; Obadofin, Ebenezer

2018-03-01

This study presents the impact of global warming on precipitation patterns in Ilorin, Nigeria, and its implications on the hydrological balance of the Awun basin under the prevailing climate conditions. The study analyzes 39 years of rainfall and temperature data of relevant stations within the study areas. Simulated data from the Coupled Global Climate model for historical and future datasets were investigated under the A2 emission scenario. Statistical regression and a Mann-Kendall analysis were performed to determine the nature of the trends in the hydrological variables and their significance levels, while a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the water balance and derive the stream flow and yield of the Awun basin. The study revealed that while minimum and maximum temperatures in Ilorin are increasing, rainfall is generally decreasing. The assessment of the trends in the water balance parameters in the basin indicates that there is no improvement in the water yield as the population increases. This may result in major stresses to the water supply in the near future.

Aesthetic Responses to Exact Fractals Driven by Physical Complexity

PubMed Central

Bies, Alexander J.; Blanc-Goldhammer, Daryn R.; Boydston, Cooper R.; Taylor, Richard P.; Sereno, Margaret E.

2016-01-01

Fractals are physically complex due to their repetition of patterns at multiple size scales. Whereas the statistical characteristics of the patterns repeat for fractals found in natural objects, computers can generate patterns that repeat exactly. Are these exact fractals processed differently, visually and aesthetically, than their statistical counterparts? We investigated the human aesthetic response to the complexity of exact fractals by manipulating fractal dimensionality, symmetry, recursion, and the number of segments in the generator. Across two studies, a variety of fractal patterns were visually presented to human participants to determine the typical response to exact fractals. In the first study, we found that preference ratings for exact midpoint displacement fractals can be described by a linear trend with preference increasing as fractal dimension increases. For the majority of individuals, preference increased with dimension. We replicated these results for other exact fractal patterns in a second study. In the second study, we also tested the effects of symmetry and recursion by presenting asymmetric dragon fractals, symmetric dragon fractals, and Sierpinski carpets and Koch snowflakes, which have radial and mirror symmetry. We found a strong interaction among recursion, symmetry and fractal dimension. Specifically, at low levels of recursion, the presence of symmetry was enough to drive high preference ratings for patterns with moderate to high levels of fractal dimension. Most individuals required a much higher level of recursion to recover this level of preference in a pattern that lacked mirror or radial symmetry, while others were less discriminating. This suggests that exact fractals are processed differently than their statistical counterparts. We propose a set of four factors that influence complexity and preference judgments in fractals that may extend to other patterns: fractal dimension, recursion, symmetry and the number of segments in a pattern. Conceptualizations such as Berlyne’s and Redies’ theories of aesthetics also provide a suitable framework for interpretation of our data with respect to the individual differences that we detect. Future studies that incorporate physiological methods to measure the human aesthetic response to exact fractal patterns would further elucidate our responses to such timeless patterns. PMID:27242475

Normative functional fitness standards and trends of Portuguese older adults: cross-cultural comparisons.

PubMed

Marques, Elisa A; Baptista, Fátima; Santos, Rute; Vale, Susana; Santos, Diana A; Silva, Analiza M; Mota, Jorge; Sardinha, Luís B

2014-01-01

This cross-sectional study was designed to develop normative functional fitness standards for the Portuguese older adults, to analyze age and gender patterns of decline, to compare the fitness level of Portuguese older adults with that of older adults in other countries, and to evaluate the fitness level of Portuguese older adults relative to recently published criterion fitness standards associated with maintaining physical independence. A sample of 4,712 independent-living older adults, age 65-103 yr, was evaluated using the Senior Fitness Test battery. Age-group normative fitness scores are reported for the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles. Results indicate that both women and men experience age-related losses in all components of functional fitness, with their rate of decline being greater than that observed in other populations, a trend which may cause Portuguese older adults to be at greater risk for loss of independence in later years. These newly established normative standards make it possible to assess individual fitness level and provide a basis for implementing population-wide health strategies to counteract early loss of independence.

Comparison of Personal PM2.5 Exposure in Various Micro-Environments during Haze and Clean Days in Nanjing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.

2015-12-01

There is a long term trend of haze in East China. As a main component of haze, fine particle (PM2.5) in various micro-environments (MEs) is a cause for concern regarding the environment and public health. To estimate individual PM2.5 exposures in distinct, non-residential MEs and to determine exposure characteristics during haze and clean days, we conducted personal PM2.5 monitoring with portable PM2.5 personal environment monitors (MicroPEM) in 19 indoor/outdoor MEs in Nanjing, and compared personal exposure data with ambient PM2.5 levels. Personal PM2.5 exposure patterns displayed notable spatial variance, peaking in snack streets and restaurants and dipping in subways and labs. Under both haze and non-haze conditions, different characteristics of MEs and the background PM2.5 level jointly determine the spatial variance of individual exposure. Indoor MEs with better ventilation systems led to lower personal PM2.5 exposure levels. During haze days, impact from high ambient PM2.5 overwhelms influence from other factors and dominates personal exposure trends.

Public health policies to encourage healthy eating habits: recent perspectives

PubMed Central

Gorski, Mary T; Roberto, Christina A

2015-01-01

There is an urgent need to address unhealthy dietary patterns at the population level. Poor diet and physical inactivity are key drivers of the obesity pandemic, and they are among the leading causes of preventable death and disability in nearly every country in the world. As countries grapple with the growing obesity prevalence, many innovative policy options to reduce overeating and improve diet quality remain largely unexplored. We describe recent trends in eating habits and consequences for public health, vulnerabilities to unhealthy eating, and the role for public health policies. We reviewed recent public health policies to promote healthier diet patterns, including mandates, restrictions, economic incentives, marketing limits, information provision, and environmental defaults. PMID:29355201

Public health policies to encourage healthy eating habits: recent perspectives.

PubMed

Gorski, Mary T; Roberto, Christina A

2015-01-01

There is an urgent need to address unhealthy dietary patterns at the population level. Poor diet and physical inactivity are key drivers of the obesity pandemic, and they are among the leading causes of preventable death and disability in nearly every country in the world. As countries grapple with the growing obesity prevalence, many innovative policy options to reduce overeating and improve diet quality remain largely unexplored. We describe recent trends in eating habits and consequences for public health, vulnerabilities to unhealthy eating, and the role for public health policies. We reviewed recent public health policies to promote healthier diet patterns, including mandates, restrictions, economic incentives, marketing limits, information provision, and environmental defaults.

Patterns and Trends in Achievement Gaps in Malaysian Secondary Schools (1999-2011): Gender, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Status

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saw, Guan Kung

2016-01-01

Educational inequality is a highly debated yet empirically understudied topic in Malaysia. This paper examines the patterns and trends of academic achievement gaps by student social groups in Malaysia, drawing upon nationally representative data for the most recent four cohorts (1999, 2003, 2007, and 2011) of eighth-grade Malaysian students from…

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Dietary Patterns Are Associated with Metabolic Outcomes among Adult Samoans in a Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Wang, Dongqing; Hawley, Nicola L; Thompson, Avery A; Lameko, Viali; Reupena, Muagatutia Sefuiva; McGarvey, Stephen T; Baylin, Ana

2017-04-01

Background: The Samoan population has been undergoing a nutrition transition toward more imported and processed foods and a more sedentary lifestyle. Objectives: We aimed to identify dietary patterns in Samoa and to evaluate their associations with metabolic outcomes. Methods: The sample of this cross-sectional study includes 2774 Samoan adults recruited in 2010 (1104 with metabolic syndrome compared with 1670 without). Principal component analysis on food items from a 104-item food-frequency questionnaire was used to identify dietary patterns. Adjusted least squares means of each component of metabolic syndrome were estimated by quintiles of factor scores for each dietary pattern. Metabolic syndrome status was regressed on quintiles of scores by using log-binomial models to obtain prevalence ratios. Results: We identified a modern pattern, a mixed-traditional pattern, and a mixed-modern pattern. The modern pattern included a high intake of imported and processed foods, including pizza, cheeseburgers, margarine, sugary drinks, desserts, snacks, egg products, noodles, nuts, breads, and cakes and a low intake of traditional agricultural products and fish. The mixed-traditional pattern had a high intake of neotraditional foods, including fruits, vegetables, soup, poultry, and fish, and imported and processed foods, including dairy products, breads, and cakes. The mixed-modern pattern was loaded with imported and processed foods, including pizza, cheeseburgers, red meat, egg products, noodles, and grains, but also with neotraditional foods, such as seafood and coconut. It also included a low intake of fish, tea, coffee, soup, and traditional agricultural staples. Higher adherence to the mixed-modern pattern was associated with lower abdominal circumference ( P -trend < 0.0001), lower serum triglycerides ( P -trend = 0.03), and higher serum HDL cholesterol ( P -trend = 0.0003). The mixed-modern pattern was inversely associated with prevalence of metabolic syndrome (the highest quintile: prevalence ratio = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.91; P -trend = 0.006). Conclusion: Mixed dietary patterns containing healthier foods, rather than a largely imported and processed modern diet, may help prevent metabolic syndrome in Samoa. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Sexual selection and the rodent baculum: an intraspecific study in the house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus).

PubMed

Ramm, Steven A; Khoo, Lin; Stockley, Paula

2010-01-01

The rapid divergence of genitalia is a pervasive trend in animal evolution, thought to be due to the action of sexual selection. To test predictions from the sexual selection hypothesis, we here report data on the allometry, variation, plasticity and condition dependence of baculum morphology in the house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus). We find that that baculum size: (a) exhibits no consistent pattern of allometric scaling (baculum size being in most cases unrelated to body size), (b) exhibits low to moderate levels of phenotypic variation, (c) does not exhibit phenotypic plasticity in response to differences in perceived levels of sexual competition and (d) exhibits limited evidence of condition dependence. These patterns provide only limited evidence in support of the sexual selection hypothesis, and no consistent support for any particular sexual selection mechanism; however, more direct measures of how genital morphology influences male fertilization success are required.

Investigating Intrinsic and Extrinsic Variables During Simulated Internet Search

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liechty, Molly M.; Madhavan, Poornima

2011-01-01

Using an eye tracker we examined decision-making processes during an internet search task. Twenty experienced homebuyers and twenty-five undergraduates from Old Dominion University viewed homes on a simulated real estate website. Several of the homes included physical properties that had the potential to negatively impact individual perceptions. These negative externalities were either easy to change (Level 1) or impossible to change (Level 2). Eye movements were analyzed to examine the relationship between participants' "stated preferences"[verbalized preferences], "revealed preferences" [actual decisions[, and experience. Dwell times, fixation durations/counts, and saccade counts/amplitudes were analyzed. Results revealed that experienced homebuyers demonstrated a more refined search pattern than novice searchers. Experienced homebuyers were also less impacted by negative externalities. Furthermore, stated preferences were discrepant from revealed preferences; although participants initially stated they liked/disliked a graphic, their eye movement patterns did not reflect this trend. These results have important implications for design of user-friendly web interfaces.

Geographic variation of PCB congeners in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard east to the Chukchi Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, M.; Lie, E.; Derocher, A.E.; Belikov, S.E.; Bernhoft, A.; Boltunov, Andrei N.; Garner, G.W.; Skaare, J.U.; Wiig, Øystein

2001-01-01

We present data on geographic variation in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners in adult female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard eastward to the Chukchi Sea. Blood samples from 90 free-living polar bears were collected in 1987–1995. Six PCB congeners, penta to octa chlorinated (PCB-99, -118, -153, -156, -180, -194), were selected for this study. Differences between areas were found in PCB levels and congener patterns. Bears from Franz Josef Land (11,194 ng/g lipid weight) and the Kara Sea (9,412 ng/g lw) had similar ΣPCB levels and were higher than all other populations (Svalbard 5,043 ng/g lw, East Siberian Sea 3,564 ng/g lw, Chukchi Sea 2,465 ng/g lw). Svalbard PCB levels were higher than those from the Chukchi Sea. Our results, combined with earlier findings, indicate that polar bears from Franz Josef Land and the Kara Sea have the highest PCB levels in the Arctic. Decreasing trends were seen eastwards and westwards from this region. Of the congeners investigated in the present study, the lower chlorinated PCBs are increasing and the high chlorinated PCBs are decreasing from Svalbard eastward to the Chukchi Sea. Different pollution sources, compound transport patterns and regional prey differences could explain the variation in PCB congener levels and patterns between regions.

A Drosophila heat shock response represents an exception rather than a rule amongst Diptera species.

PubMed

Zatsepina, O G; Przhiboro, A A; Yushenova, I A; Shilova, V; Zelentsova, E S; Shostak, N G; Evgen'ev, M B; Garbuz, D G

2016-08-01

Heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) is the major player that underlies adaptive response to hyperthermia in all organisms studied to date. We investigated patterns of Hsp70 expression in larvae of dipteran species collected from natural populations of species belonging to four families from different evolutionary lineages of the order Diptera: Stratiomyidae, Tabanidae, Chironomidae and Ceratopogonidae. All investigated species showed a Hsp70 expression pattern that was different from the pattern in Drosophila. In contrast to Drosophila, all of the species in the families studied were characterized by high constitutive levels of Hsp70, which was more stable than that in Drosophila. When Stratiomyidae Hsp70 proteins were expressed in Drosophila cells, they became as short-lived as the endogenous Hsp70. Interestingly, three species of Ceratopogonidae and a cold-water species of Chironomidae exhibited high constitutive levels of Hsp70 mRNA and high basal levels of Hsp70. Furthermore, two species of Tabanidae were characterized by significant constitutive levels of Hsp70 and highly stable Hsp70 mRNA. In most cases, heat-resistant species were characterized by a higher basal level of Hsp70 than more thermosensitive species. These data suggest that different trends were realized during the evolution of the molecular mechanisms underlying the regulation of the responses of Hsp70 genes to temperature fluctuations in the studied families. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

Streamflow droughts in major watershed regions of the conterminous U.S.: Understanding evolution of historic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournasiri Poshtiri, M.; Pal, I.

2015-12-01

Climate non-stationarity affects regional hydrological extremes. This research looks into historic patterns of streamflow drought indicators and their evolution for major watershed regions in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The results indicate general linear and non-linear drying trends, particularly in the last four decades, as opposed to wetting trends reported in previous studies. Regional differences in the trends are notable, and echo the local climatic changes documented in the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA). A reversal of linear trends is seen for some northern regions after 1980s. Patterns in return periods and corresponding return values of the indicators are also examined, which suggests changing risk conditions that are important for water-resources decision-making. Persistent or flash drought conditions in a river can lead to chronic or short-term water scarcity—a main driver of societal and cross-boundary conflicts. Thus, this research identifies "hotspot" locations where suitable adaptive management measures are most needed.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers in U.S. sewage sludges and biosolids: temporal and geographical trends and uptake by corn following land application.

PubMed

Hale, Robert C; La Guardia, Mark J; Harvey, Ellen; Chen, Da; Mainor, Thomas M; Luellen, Drew R; Hundal, Lakhwinder S

2012-02-21

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have been used extensively to flame-retard polymers and textiles. These persistent chemicals enter wastewater streams following manufacture, use, and disposal, concentrating in the settled solids during treatment. Land application of stabilized sewage sludge (known as biosolids) can contribute PBDEs to terrestrial systems. Monitoring sludge/biosolids contaminant burdens may be valuable in revealing trends in societal chemical usage and environmental release. In archived Chicago area sludges/biosolids from 1975 to 2008, penta-BDE concentrations increased and then plateaued after about 2000. Penta-BDE manufacture in the United States ended in December 2004. Deca-BDE concentrations in biosolids rose from 1995 to 2008, doubling on a 5-year interval. Evaluation of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Targeted National Sewage Sludge Survey data from 2006 to 2007 revealed highest penta-BDE biosolids levels from western and lowest from northeastern wastewater treatment plants (2120 and 1530 μg/kg, respectively), consistent with patterns reported in some recent indoor dust and human blood studies. No significant regional trends were observed for deca-BDE concentrations. Congener patterns in contemporary Chicago biosolids support the contention that BDE-209 can be dehalogenated to less brominated congeners. Biosolids application on agricultural fields increased PBDE soil concentrations. However, corn grown thereon did not exhibit measurable PBDE uptake; perhaps due to low bioavailability of the biosolids-associated flame retardants.

Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China

PubMed Central

He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

2018-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004–2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution. PMID:29466354

Why are suicide rates rising in young men but falling in the elderly?-- a time-series analysis of trends in England and Wales 1950-1998.

PubMed

Gunnell, David; Middleton, Nicos; Whitley, Elise; Dorling, Daniel; Frankel, Stephen

2003-08-01

Suicide rates doubled in males aged <45 in England and Wales between 1950 and 1998, in contrast rates declined in older males and females of all ages. Explanations for these divergent trends are largely speculative, but social changes are likely to have played an important role. We undertook a time-series analysis using routinely available age- and sex-specific suicide, social, economic and health data, focussing on the two age groups in which trends have diverged most-25-34 and 60+ year olds. Between 1950 and 1998 there were unfavourable trends in many of the risk factors for suicide: rises in divorce, unemployment and substance misuse and declines in births and marriage. Whilst economic prosperity has increased, so too has income inequality. Trends in suicide risk factors were generally similar in both age-sex groups, although the rises in divorce and markers of substance misuse were most marked in 25-34 year olds and young males experienced the lowest rise in antidepressant prescribing. Statistical modelling indicates that no single factor can be identified as underlying recent trends. The factors most consistently associated with the rises in young male suicide are increases in divorce, declines in marriage and increases in income inequality. These changes have had little effect on suicide in young females. This may be because the drugs commonly used in overdose-their favoured method of suicide-have become less toxic or because they are less affected by the factors underlying the rise in male suicide. In older people declines in suicide were associated with increases in gross domestic product, the size of the female workforce, marriage and the prescribing of antidepressants. Recent population trends in suicide appear to be associated with by a range of social and health related factors. It is possible that some of the patterns observed are due to declining levels of social integration, but such effects do not appear to have adversely influenced patterns in older generations.

Regional variability of sea level change using a global ocean model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombard, A.; Garric, G.; Cazenave, A.; Penduff, T.; Molines, J.

2007-12-01

We analyse different runs of a global eddy-permitting (1/4 degree) ocean model driven by atmospheric forcing to evaluate regional variability of sea level change over 1993-2001, 1998-2006 and over the long period 1958-2004. No data assimilation is performed in the model, contrarily to previous similar studies (Carton et al., 2005; Wunsch et al., 2007; Koehl and Stammer, 2007). We compare the model-based regional sea level trend patterns with the one deduced from satellite altimetry data. We examine respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions.

An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

2015-02-01

The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

Search engines, news wires and digital epidemiology: Presumptions and facts.

PubMed

Kaveh-Yazdy, Fatemeh; Zareh-Bidoki, Ali-Mohammad

2018-07-01

Digital epidemiology tries to identify diseases dynamics and spread behaviors using digital traces collected via search engines logs and social media posts. However, the impacts of news on information-seeking behaviors have been remained unknown. Data employed in this research provided from two sources, (1) Parsijoo search engine query logs of 48 months, and (2) a set of documents of 28 months of Parsijoo's news service. Two classes of topics, i.e. macro-topics and micro-topics were selected to be tracked in query logs and news. Keywords of the macro-topics were automatically generated using web provided resources and exceeded 10k. Keyword set of micro-topics were limited to a numerable list including terms related to diseases and health-related activities. The tests are established in the form of three studies. Study A includes temporal analyses of 7 macro-topics in query logs. Study B considers analyzing seasonality of searching patterns of 9 micro-topics, and Study C assesses the impact of news media coverage on users' health-related information-seeking behaviors. Study A showed that the hourly distribution of various macro-topics followed the changes in social activity level. Conversely, the interestingness of macro-topics did not follow the regulation of topic distributions. Among macro-topics, "Pharmacotherapy" has highest interestingness level and wider time-window of popularity. In Study B, seasonality of a limited number of diseases and health-related activities were analyzed. Trends of infectious diseases, such as flu, mumps and chicken pox were seasonal. Due to seasonality of most of diseases covered in national vaccination plans, the trend belonging to "Immunization and Vaccination" was seasonal, as well. Cancer awareness events caused peaks in search trends of "Cancer" and "Screening" micro-topics in specific days of each year that mimic repeated patterns which may mistakenly be identified as seasonality. In study C, we assessed the co-integration and correlation between news and query trends. Our results demonstrated that micro-topics sparsely covered in news media had lowest level of impressiveness and, subsequently, the lowest impact on users' intents. Our results can reveal public reaction to social events, diseases and prevention procedures. Furthermore, we found that news trends are co-integrated with search queries and are able to reveal health-related events; however, they cannot be used interchangeably. It is recommended that the user-generated contents and news documents are analyzed mutually and interactively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change? Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations.

PubMed

Roitberg, Elena; Shoshany, Maxim

2017-01-01

Following a predicted decline in water resources in the Mediterranean Basin, we used reaction-diffusion equations to gain a better understanding of expected changes in properties of vegetation patterns that evolve along the rainfall transition between semi-arid and arid rainfall regions. Two types of scenarios were investigated: the first, a discrete scenario, where the potential consequences of climate change are represented by patterns evolving at discrete rainfall levels along a rainfall gradient. This scenario concerns space-for-time substitutions characteristic of the rainfall gradient hypothesis. The second, a continuous scenario, represents explicitly the effect of rainfall decline on patterns which evolved at different rainfall levels along the rainfall gradient prior to the climate change. The eccentricity of patterns that emerge through these two scenarios was found to decrease with decreasing rainfall, while their solidity increased. Due to their inverse modes of change, their ratio was found to be a highly sensitive indicator for pattern response to rainfall decline. An eccentricity ratio versus rainfall (ER:R) line was generalized from the results of the discrete experiment, where ERs above this line represent developed (recovered) patterns and ERs below this line represent degraded patterns. For the rainfall range of 1.2 to 0.8 mm/day, the continuous rainfall decline experiment with ERs that lie above the ER:R line, yielded patterns less affected by rainfall decline than would be expected according to the discrete representation of ecosystems' response. Thus, for this range, space-for-time substitution represents an overestimation of the consequences of the expected rainfall decline. For rainfall levels below 0.8 mm/day, eccentricity ratios from the discrete and continuous experiments practically converge to the same trend of pattern change along the ER:R line. Thus, the rainfall gradient hypothesis may be valid for regions characterized by this important rainfall range, which typically include desert fringe ecosystems.

Patterns and controls of inter-annual variability in the terrestrial carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcolla, Barbara; Rödenbeck, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro

2017-08-01

The terrestrial carbon fluxes show the largest variability among the components of the global carbon cycle and drive most of the temporal variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Understanding the environmental controls and trends of the terrestrial carbon budget is therefore essential to predict the future trajectories of the CO2 airborne fraction and atmospheric concentrations. In the present work, patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon net ecosystem exchange (NEE) have been analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations from the FLUXNET database (La Thuile and 2015 releases), the MPI-MTE (model tree ensemble) bottom-up product resulting from the global upscaling of site-level fluxes, and the Jena CarboScope Inversion, a top-down estimate of surface fluxes obtained from observed CO2 concentrations and an atmospheric transport model. Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of IAV were investigated between the three data sources. Results show that the global average of IAV at FLUXNET sites, quantified as the standard deviation of annual NEE, peaks in arid ecosystems and amounts to ˜ 120 gC m-2 y-1, almost 6 times more than the values calculated from the two global products (15 and 20 gC m-2 y-1 for MPI-MTE and the Jena Inversion, respectively). Most of the temporal variability observed in the last three decades of the MPI-MTE and Jena Inversion products is due to yearly anomalies, whereas the temporal trends explain only about 15 and 20 % of the variability, respectively. Both at the site level and on a global scale, the IAV of NEE is driven by the gross primary productivity and in particular by the cumulative carbon flux during the months when land acts as a sink. Altogether these results offer a broad view on the magnitude, spatial patterns and environmental drivers of IAV from a variety of data sources that can be instrumental to improve our understanding of the terrestrial carbon budget and to validate the predictions of land surface models.

Patterns, trends and sex differences in HIV/AIDS reported mortality in Latin American countries: 1996-2007

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background International cohort studies have shown that antiretroviral treatment (ART) has improved survival of HIV-infected individuals. National population based studies of HIV mortality exist in industrialized settings but few have been presented from developing countries. Our objective was to investigate on a population basis, the regional situation regarding HIV mortality and trends in Latin America (LA) in the context of adoption of public ART policies and gender differences. Methods Cause of death data from vital statistics registries from 1996 to 2007 with "good" or "average" quality of mortality data were examined. Standardized mortality rates and Poisson regression models by country were developed and differences among countries assessed to identify patterns of HIV mortality over time occurring in Latin America. Results Standardized HIV mortality following the adoption of public ART policies was highest in Panama and El Salvador and lowest in Chile. During the study period, three overall patterns were identified in HIV mortality trends- following the adoption of the free ART public policies; a remarkable decrement, a remarkable increment and a slight increment. HIV mortality was consistently higher in males compared to females. Mean age of death attributable to HIV increased in the majority of countries over the study period. Conclusions Vital statistics registries provide valuable information on HIV mortality in LA. While the introduction of national policies for free ART provision has coincided with declines in population-level HIV mortality and increasing age of death in some countries, in others HIV mortality has increased. Barriers to effective ART implementation and uptake in the context of free ART public provision policies should be further investigated. PMID:21801402

Long-term trends in atmospheric concentrations of α- and γ-HCH in the Arctic provide insight into the effects of legislation and climatic fluctuations on contaminant levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Su, Y.; Hung, H.

Twelve year datasets of weekly atmospheric concentrations of α- and γ-HCH were compared between the two Arctic monitoring stations of Alert, Nunavut, Canada, and Zeppelin Mountain, Svalbard, Norway. Time-series analysis was conducted with the use of dynamic harmonic regression (DHR), which provided a very good model fit, to examine both the seasonal behaviour in these isomers and the longer-term, underlying trends. Strong spatial differences were not apparent between the two sites, although subtle differences in seasonal behaviour and composition were identified. For example, the composition of γ-HCH to total HCH (α + γ) was greater at Zeppelin compared to Alert, probably reflecting this site's proximity to major use regions of lindane. Pronounced seasonality in air concentrations for γ-HCH was marked by a 'spring maximum event' (SME), confirming earlier studies. For α-HCH, the SME was much weaker and only evident at Alert, whereas at Zeppelin, seasonal fluctuations for α-HCH were marked by elevated concentrations in summer and lower concentrations during winter, with this pattern most apparent for the years after 2000. We attribute this difference in spatial and temporal patterns to the Arctic oscillation. A similar climatic pattern was not evident at either site in the γ-HCH data. Seasonally adjusted, long-term trends revealed declining concentrations at both sites for α- and γ-HCH over the entire time-series. Recent legislation affecting lindane use appear to account for this decline in γ-HCH, with little evidence of a delay or 'lag' between the banning of lindane in Europe (a main source region) or Canada, and a decline in air concentrations observed at both Arctic sites.

Trace metals in suspended particles, sediments and Asiatic clams (Corbicula fluminea) of the Río de la Plata Estuary, Argentina.

PubMed

Bilos, C; Colombo, J C; Presa, M J

1998-01-01

Suspended particulate matter (SPM), sandy sediments and Asiatic clams were collected at seven sites along 150 km of the Río de la Plata coast to assess the magnitude of trace metal pollution in the area. Metal concentrations in SPM (Cu: 7.4-109; Cr: 75-408; Mn: 525-1341 microg(-1)), sediments (Cr: 16-27; Zn: 26-99; Mn: 221-489 microg(-1)) and bivalves (Cd: 0.5-1.9; Ni: 1.3-6.4; Cr: 1.3-11; Mn: 15-81; Cu: 28-89; Zn: 118-316 microg g(-1)) are comparable to those reported for other moderately polluted world rivers. Cu levels in Asiatic clams are among the highest, similar to those reported for heavily polluted sites. SPM Cu and Cr concentrations displayed a clear geographical trend with values increasing with proximity to major urban centers. Sediments showed a less clear pattern possibly due to their coarse nature (>98% sand) and higher proportion of mineral-associated residual metals. The clams showed a complex pattern due to the variability introduced by size-related factors and the natural dynamics of SPM in the estuary. Cr and Mn showed an apparent reverse industrial trend with higher concentrations in clams collected at distant stations near the turbidity maximum zone, possibly reflecting enhanced particle retention. Cu, Cd and Ni showed no clear geographical pattern, whereas Zn increased in the clams collected in the most industrialized area. A significant relationship with clam size was observed for Cu (positive) and Zn (negative) suggesting different physiological requirements for both metals with age. A principal component analysis confirmed these geographical and size-related trends.

Number and Type of Meals consumed by Children in a Subset of Schools in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Preston, Alan M; Rodríguez-Quintana, Natalie

2015-06-01

Eating patterns of children have been investigated in the U.S. and have been found to be changeable over extended time periods. Trends can be correlated to changes in the same periods for determinants of overall health such as body mass index (BMI). In Puerto Rico, there have been no such studies so similar correlations cannot be done. Herein, we present baseline information on the number and types of eating occasions in a convenience sample of children from the area of San Juan so that future changes in patterns can be monitored over time. Multiple 24 hour recall questionnaires were administered to school children at 3 different grade levels. Number of eating occasions and type of meal (breakfast, lunch, dinner and snacks) were quantified. Factors considered for analysis were age, gender and BMI of the children, participation in the School Lunch Program (SLP) and if meals were eaten on a weekday or weekend day. Approximately 40% of children were categorized as overweight. There was a trend toward fewer eating occasions in older vs. younger children and fewer eating occasions on weekend days vs. weekdays. Lunch and dinner were consumed more frequently than breakfast and participants in the SLP had more eating occasions than non-participants. The number of eating occasions in Puerto Rican youth is maintained at about 5 for weekdays and about 4.5 per day for weekend days with a trend toward fewer meals as a function of increasing age. This data can be used as baseline information in future studies that wish to correlate changes in dietary patterns with health.

Benthic impacts of intertidal oyster culture, with consideration of taxonomic sufficiency.

PubMed

Forrest, Barrie M; Creese, Robert G

2006-01-01

An investigation of the impacts from elevated intertidal Pacific oyster culture in a New Zealand estuary showed enhanced sedimentation beneath culture racks compared with other sites. Seabed elevation beneath racks was generally lower than between them, suggesting that topographic patterns more likely result from a local effect of rack structures on hydrodynamic processes than from enhanced deposition. Compared with control sites, seabed sediments within the farm had a greater silt/clay and organic content, and a lower redox potential and shear strength. While a marked trend in macrofaunal species richness was not evident, species composition and dominance patterns were consistent with a disturbance gradient, with farm effects not evident 35 m from the perimeter of the racks. Of the environmental variables measured, sediment shear strength was most closely associated with the distribution and density of macrofauna, suggesting that human-induced disturbance from farming operations may have contributed to the biological patterns. To evaluate the taxonomic sufficiency needed to document impacts, aggregation to the family level based on Linnean classification was compared with an aggregation scheme based on ;general groups' identifiable with limited taxonomic expertise. Compared with species-level analyses, spatial patterns of impact were equally discernible at both aggregation levels used, provided density rather than presence/absence data were used. Once baseline conditions are established and the efficacy of taxonomic aggregation demonstrated, a ;general group' scheme provides an appropriate and increasingly relevant tool for routine monitoring.

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.

Spatial patterns and secular trends in human leishmaniasis incidence in Morocco between 2003 and 2013.

PubMed

Sadeq, Mina

2016-05-11

Few studies on spatial patterns or secular trends in human leishmanias have been conducted in Morocco. This study aimed to examine spatial patterns and trends associated with the human leishmaniasis incidence rate (HLIR) at the province/prefecture level between 2003 and 2013 in Morocco. Only the available published country data on the HLIR between 2003 and 2013, from the open access files of the Ministry of Health, were used. Secular trends were examined using Kendall's rank correlation. An exploratory spatial data analysis was also conducted to examine the spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association [LISA]), and spatial diffusion at the province/prefecture level. The influence of various covariates (poverty rate, vulnerability rate, population density, and urbanization) on the HLIR was tested via spatial regression (ordinary least squares regression). At the country level, no secular variation was observed. Poisson annual incidence rate estimates were 13 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 12.9-13.1) for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and 0.4 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 0.4-0.5) for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The available data on HLIR were based on combined CL and VL cases, however, as the CL cases totally outnumbered the VL ones, HLIR may be considered as CL incidence rate. At the provincial level, a secular increase in the incidence rate was observed in Al Hoceima (P = 0.008), Taounate (P = 0.04), Larache (P = 0.002), Tétouan (P = 0.0003), Khenifra (P = 0.008), Meknes (P = 0.03), and El Kelaa (P = 0.0007), whereas a secular decrease was observed only in the Chichaoua province (P = 0.006). Even though increased or decreased rate was evident in these provinces, none of them showed clustering of leishmaniasis incidence. Significant spatial clusters of high leishmaniasis incidence were located in the northeastern part of Morocco, while spatial clusters of low leishmaniasis incidence were seen in some northwestern and southern parts of Morocco; there was spatial randomness in the remaining parts of the country. Significant clustering was seen from 2005 to 2013, during which time the Errachidia province was a permanent 'hot spot'. Global Moran's I increased from 0.2844 (P = 0.006) in 2005 to 0.5886 (P = 0.001) in 2011, and decreased to 0.2491 (P = 0.004) in 2013. It was found that only poverty had an effect on the HLIR (P = 0.0003), contributing only 23 % to this (Adjusted R-squared = 0.226). Localities showing either secular increase in human leishmaniasis or significant clustering have been identified, which may guide decision-making as to where to appropriately allocate funding and implement control measures. Researchers are also urged to undertake further studies focusing on these localities.

Mapping the changing pattern of local climate as an observed distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

It is at local scales that the impacts of climate change will be felt directly and at which adaptation planning decisions must be made. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about the pattern of local climate change. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs the pattern of variation in sensitivity with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify and map the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Is Google Trends a reliable tool for digital epidemiology? Insights from different clinical settings.

PubMed

Cervellin, Gianfranco; Comelli, Ivan; Lippi, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

Internet-derived information has been recently recognized as a valuable tool for epidemiological investigation. Google Trends, a Google Inc. portal, generates data on geographical and temporal patterns according to specified keywords. The aim of this study was to compare the reliability of Google Trends in different clinical settings, for both common diseases with lower media coverage, and for less common diseases attracting major media coverage. We carried out a search in Google Trends using the keywords "renal colic", "epistaxis", and "mushroom poisoning", selected on the basis of available and reliable epidemiological data. Besides this search, we carried out a second search for three clinical conditions (i.e., "meningitis", "Legionella Pneumophila pneumonia", and "Ebola fever"), which recently received major focus by the Italian media. In our analysis, no correlation was found between data captured from Google Trends and epidemiology of renal colics, epistaxis and mushroom poisoning. Only when searching for the term "mushroom" alone the Google Trends search generated a seasonal pattern which almost overlaps with the epidemiological profile, but this was probably mostly due to searches for harvesting and cooking rather than to for poisoning. The Google Trends data also failed to reflect the geographical and temporary patterns of disease for meningitis, Legionella Pneumophila pneumonia and Ebola fever. The results of our study confirm that Google Trends has modest reliability for defining the epidemiology of relatively common diseases with minor media coverage, or relatively rare diseases with higher audience. Overall, Google Trends seems to be more influenced by the media clamor than by true epidemiological burden. Copyright © 2017 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal factors in violence related injuries--An 11 year trend analysis of violence-related injuries from a Swiss Emergency Department.

PubMed

Clément, Nicolas; Businger, Adrian; Lindner, Gregor; Müller, Wolfgang P; Hüsler, J; Zimmermann, Heinz; Exadaktylos, Aristomenis K

2012-12-01

Injury from interpersonal violence is a major social and medical problem in the industrialized world. Little is known about the trends in prevalence and injury pattern or about the demographic characteristics of the patients involved. In this retrospective analysis, we screened the database of the Emergency Department of a large university hospital for all patients who were admitted for injuries due to interpersonal violence over an 11 year period. For all patients identified, we gathered data on age, country of origin, quality of injury, and hospitalization or outpatient management. A trend analysis was performed using Kendall's tau-b correlation coefficients for regression analysis. The overall number of patients admitted to our Emergency Department remained stable over the study period. Non-Swiss nationals were overrepresented in comparison to the demographics of the region where the study was conducted. There was a trend toward a more severe pattern of injury, such as an increase in the number of severe head injuries. Although the overall number of patients remained stable over the study period, there was an alarming trend toward a more severe pattern of injury, expressed by an increase in severe head traumas.

Pediatric Asthma Mortality and Hospitalization Trends Across Asia Pacific Relationship With Asthma Drug Utilization Patterns

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The wide variability in prevalence of childhood asthma across Asia Pacific is well documented, but less is known about its trends in mortality and hospitalization. Objectives To examine pediatric asthma mortality and hospitalization trends of selected countries across Asia Pacific, and also patterns of asthma drug utilization. Materials and Methods Mortality and population data were sourced from the World Health Organization's mortality database. Data on hospitalization were obtained by direct inquiry and from government and scientific publications. Drug use for asthma was expressed as a controller-to-reliever (C:R) ratio (ie, units of inhaled corticosteroids/units of short-acting β-agonists, sold in each country). Time-series regression analyses were used to examine temporal patterns and study association between deaths, hospitalizations, and drug use. Results Japan showed a decreasing trend in pediatric asthma mortality whereas an increase was observed in Thailand. Hospitalizations decreased in Australia and Singapore but increased in Taiwan, Republic of China. C:R ratios increased significantly across the countries. Conclusions Mixed trends in pediatric asthma mortality and hospitalization rates were observed, which coincided with a uniform increase in C:R ratios. This may reflect importance of other aspects of asthma management besides pharmacotherapy. PMID:23283014

Model driven mobile care for patients with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Skrøvseth, Stein Olav; Arsand, Eirik; Godtliebsen, Fred; Joakimsen, Ragnar M

2012-01-01

We gathered a data set from 30 patients with type 1 diabetes by giving the patients a mobile phone application, where they recorded blood glucose measurements, insulin injections, meals, and physical activity. Using these data as a learning data set, we describe a new approach of building a mobile feedback system for these patients based on periodicities, pattern recognition, and scale-space trends. Most patients have important patterns for periodicities and trends, though better resolution of input variables is needed to provide useful feedback using pattern recognition.

Justice as a dynamic construct: effects of individual trajectories on distal work outcomes.

PubMed

Hausknecht, John P; Sturman, Michael C; Roberson, Quinetta M

2011-07-01

Despite an amassing organizational justice literature, few studies have directly addressed the temporal patterning of justice judgments and the effects that changes in these perceptions have on important work outcomes. Drawing from Gestalt characteristics theory (Ariely & Carmon, 2000, 2003), we examine the concept of justice trajectories (i.e., levels and trends of individual fairness perceptions over time) and offer empirical evidence to highlight the value of considering fairness within a dynamic context. Participants included 523 working adults who completed surveys about their work experiences on 4 occasions over the course of 1 year. Results indicate that justice trends explained additional variance in distal work outcomes (job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and turnover intentions) after controlling for end-state levels of justice, demonstrating the cumulative effects of justice over time. Findings also reveal that change in procedural justice perceptions affected distal work outcomes more strongly than any other justice dimension. Implications for theory and future investigations of justice as a dynamic construct are discussed.

Spatial clustering of average risks and risk trends in Bayesian disease mapping.

PubMed

Anderson, Craig; Lee, Duncan; Dean, Nema

2017-01-01

Spatiotemporal disease mapping focuses on estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk across a set of nonoverlapping areal units over a fixed period of time. The key aim of such research is to identify areas that have a high average level of disease risk or where disease risk is increasing over time, thus allowing public health interventions to be focused on these areas. Such aims are well suited to the statistical approach of clustering, and while much research has been done in this area in a purely spatial setting, only a handful of approaches have focused on spatiotemporal clustering of disease risk. Therefore, this paper outlines a new modeling approach for clustering spatiotemporal disease risk data, by clustering areas based on both their mean risk levels and the behavior of their temporal trends. The efficacy of the methodology is established by a simulation study, and is illustrated by a study of respiratory disease risk in Glasgow, Scotland. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Trends in adherence to dietary recommendations among Korean type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

PubMed

Park, Kyong

2015-12-01

The current study examined trends in adherence to dietary recommendations and compared the levels of adherence between diagnosed and undiagnosed subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Korea over the past 14 years. Data were collected from the 1998-2012 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES). Diagnosed diabetes was defined as giving a positive response to questions about awareness of the disease, a physician's diagnosis of diabetes, or medical treatment for diabetes, whereas undiagnosed diabetes was defined as having a fasting glucose level ≥ 126 mg/dl. Assessment of adherence level was based on 6 components of dietary guidelines, considering meal patterns and intake levels of calories, carbohydrates, vegetable/seaweed, sodium, and alcohol. The participants received 1 point if they met the criteria for each of the 6 components, and the total possible score ranged from 0 to 6 points. Multivariate generalized linear regression was performed, taking into account the complex survey design. Among all diabetic patients aged 30 years or older, the proportion of diagnosed diabetes increased dramatically, from 40.9% in 1998 to 75.9% in 2012 (P for trend < 0.001). The overall adherence levels to dietary recommendations were low and did not significantly differ between diagnosed and undiagnosed subjects with T2DM for all survey years. Several improvements were observed, including increased adherence to maintaining sufficient vegetable/seaweed consumption (increased from 0.12 to 0.16 points) and limiting sodium intake (increased from 0.12-0.13 points to 0.19-0.24 points; P for trend < 0.001), while adherence to maintaining moderate alcohol consumption decreased. Analysis of data collected by the KNHANES indicates that Korean T2DM patients have poor adherence to dietary recommendations and maintenance of a healthy lifestyle, regardless of disease awareness. This finding suggests that development of practical, evidence-based guidelines is necessary and that provision and expansion of educational programs for T2DM patients is critical after diagnosis.

Drainage - Structure Correlation in tectonically active Regions: Case studies in the Bolivian and Colombian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeilinger, Gerold; Parra, Mauricio; Kober, Florian

2017-04-01

It is widely accepted, that drainage patterns are often controlled by tectonics/climate and geology/rheology. Classical drainage patterns can be found 1) in fault-and-thrust belt, where rives follow the valleys parallel or cut perpendicular to strike trough the ridges, forming a trellis pattern, 2) at dome structures where the drainage form a radial pattern or 3) rectangular patterns in strongly fractured regions. In this study, we focus on fault-and-thrust belts, that undergone different phases of tectonic activity. According to classical models, the deformation is propagating into the foreland, hence being youngest at the frontal part and getting successively older towards the axis of the orogen. Drainage patterns in the more interior parts of the orogenic wedge should be then less influenced by the direction of structures, as landscape evolution is changing to a tectonic passive stage. This relationship might represent the transience and maturity of drainage pattern evolution. Here we study drainage patterns of the Bolivian and the eastern Colombian Andes by comparing the relative orientation of the drainage network with the orogen structural grain. The drainage is extracted from Digital Elevation Models (SRTM 30 m) and indexed by their Strahler Order. Order 1 channels have an upstream area of 1 km2. The direction of all segments is analyzed by linear directional mean function that results in the mean orientation of input channels with approx. 500 m average length. The orientation of structures for different structural domains is calculated using the same function on digitized faults and fold-axis. Rose diagrams show the length-weighted directional distribution of structures, of higher (>= 4) and of lower order (<= 3) channels. The structural trend in the Bolivian Andes is controlled by the orocline, where a predominant NW-SE trend turns into an N-S trend at 18°S and where the eastern orogen comprise from west to east, the Eastern Cordillera (EC), the Interandean Zone and the Subandean Zone (SA), exhibiting a catchment relief of up to 5000 m. While the structural trend in the EC is predominately NW-SE with a uniform (no preferred orientation) distribution of lower order fluvial channels, it changes in the SA into a distinct N-S trend with a pronounced E-W orientation of lower order fluvial channels. A similar pattern is recognized in the Eastern Andes of Colombia, where the structural trend is NE-SW. The Eastern Cordillera comprise a frontal thin-skinned Neogene and Paleogene domain (FR) and the more interior lower Cretaceous an Upper Paleozoic thick-skinned region (IR). The trend of higher order channels is, as expected, parallel to the structures in the interior parts and perpendicular in the frontal part. However, the trend of lower order channels reveal no directional correlation to the structural trend in the interior, but a significant correlation to the structures in the frontal range that suffered relatively to the interior domains younger deformation phases. We therefore postulate a dependency of the directional evolution of drainage patterns on the relative timing of tectonic activity. The only weakly preferred orientation of drainages in the interior parts (EC and IR) suggests a balance between structural control and drainage occupation, and higher maturity of the landscape. In contrast, the distinct pattern of drainages oblique to the structural grain in the frontal ranges (SA and FR) highlights the alignment of tributaries and suggests an ongoing tectonic control on drainage orientation. We test the hypothesis whether the correlation between the direction of small order rivers and the direction of structures can be used as a proxy for relative tectonic activity, which might be relevant in questions on 1) dominance of tectonics over climate, 2) dynamics of deformation propagation in fault-and-thrust-belts and 3) occurrence of higher erosion rates despite "limited" relief or threshold slopes. Ongoing efforts will investigate the possibility to quantify or compare relative tectonic activity across sites.

Hydrology of the coastal springs ground-water basin and adjacent parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knochenmus, Lari A.; Yobbi, Dann K.

2001-01-01

The coastal springs in Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Florida consist of three first-order magnitude springs and numerous smaller springs, which are points of substantial ground-water discharge from the Upper Floridan aquifer. Spring flow is proportional to the water-level altitude in the aquifer and is affected primarily by the magnitude and timing of rainfall. Ground-water levels in 206 Upper Floridan aquifer wells, and surface-water stage, flow, and specific conductance of water from springs at 10 gaging stations were measured to define the hydrologic variability (temporally and spatially) in the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin and adjacent parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties. Rainfall at 46 stations and ground-water withdrawals for three counties, were used to calculate water budgets, to evaluate long-term changes in hydrologic conditions, and to evaluate relations among the hydrologic components. Predictive equations to estimate daily spring flow were developed for eight gaging stations using regression techniques. Regression techniques included ordinary least squares and multiple linear regression techniques. The predictive equations indicate that ground-water levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer are directly related to spring flow. At tidally affected gaging stations, spring flow is inversely related to spring-pool altitude. The springs have similar seasonal flow patterns throughout the area. Water-budget analysis provided insight into the relative importance of the hydrologic components expected to influence spring flow. Four water budgets were constructed for small ground-water basins that form the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin. Rainfall averaged 55 inches per year and was the only source of inflow to the Basin. The pathways for outflow were evapotranspiration (34 inches per year), runoff by spring flow (8 inches per year), ground-water outflow from upward leakage (11 inches per year), and ground-water withdrawal (2 inches per year). Recharge (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) to the Upper Floridan aquifer consists of vertical leakage through the surficial deposits. Discharge is primarily through springs and diffuse upward leakage that maintains the extensive swamps along the Gulf of Mexico. The ground-water basins had slightly different partitioning of hydrologic components, reflecting variation among the regions. Trends in hydrologic data were identified using nonparametric statistical techniques to infer long-term changes in hydrologic conditions, and yielded mixed results. No trend in rainfall was detected during the past century. No trend in spring flow was detected in 1931-98. Although monotonic trends were not detected, rainfall patterns are naturally variable from month to month and year to year; this variability is reflected in ground-water levels and spring flows. A decreasing trend in ground-water levels was detected in the Weeki Wachee well (1966-98), but the trend was statistically weak. At current ground-water withdrawal rates, there is no discernible affect on ground-water levels and spring flows. Sporadic data records, lack of continuous data, and inconsistent periods of record among the hydrologic components impeded analysis of long-term changes to the hydrologic system and interrelations among components. The ongoing collection of hydrologic data from index sites could provide much needed information to assess the hydrologic factors affecting the quantity and quality of spring flow in the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin.

Use of indicator items to monitor marine debris on a New Jersey beach from 1991 to 1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, C.A.

1998-01-01

The US National Marine Debris Monitoring Program is using indicator items from beach surveys to identify whether amounts of marine debris are changing over time. Indicator items were selected through expert opinion and assumed to reflect the trend of all debris. We used monthly data from a 1991-1996 study of debris on a New Jersey beach to determine if indicator and non-indicator items showed similar trends. Total indicator debris levels did not change; this was true regardless of probable source. Non-indicator debris increased about 40% annually. Plastic non-indicator items increased regardless of whether items were whole items, cigarette filters, or pieces. Of the whole items, almost 50% were plastic lids, cups, and utensils, and about 25% were drug-related paraphernalia, tobacco-related products, plastic stirrers, pull rings, and fireworks. When indicator items are used in a monitoring programme to reflect total debris patterns, concordance of trends in indicator and non-indicator debris should be checked.

Nonuniform ocean acidification and attenuation of the ocean carbon sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fassbender, Andrea J.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Palevsky, Hilary I.

2017-08-01

Surface ocean carbon chemistry is changing rapidly. Partial pressures of carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) are rising, pH levels are declining, and the ocean's buffer capacity is eroding. Regional differences in short-term pH trends primarily have been attributed to physical and biological processes; however, heterogeneous seawater carbonate chemistry may also be playing an important role. Here we use Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas Version 4 data to develop 12 month gridded climatologies of carbonate system variables and explore the coherent spatial patterns of ocean acidification and attenuation in the ocean carbon sink caused by rising atmospheric pCO2. High-latitude regions exhibit the highest pH and buffer capacity sensitivities to pCO2 increases, while the equatorial Pacific is uniquely insensitive due to a newly defined aqueous CO2 concentration effect. Importantly, dissimilar regional pH trends do not necessarily equate to dissimilar acidity ([H+]) trends, indicating that [H+] is a more useful metric of acidification.

Patterns and Trends in Services to Persons on the Caseload of the Division of Developmental Disabilities: A 5-Year Analysis (July 1989-August 1994).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Lisa A.; And Others

This report presents patterns and trends in services provided to persons with developmental disabilities through the Washington State Division of Developmental Disabilities (DDD) and related agencies from 1989 through 1994. Following an executive summary, individual chapters provide extensive detail on: (1) the Division and this project; (2) types…

Trends and Patterns in Massive Open Online Courses: Review and Content Analysis of Research on MOOCs (2008-2015)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bozkurt, Aras; Akgün-Özbek, Ela; Zawacki-Richter, Olaf

2017-01-01

To fully understand the phenomenon of massive open online courses (MOOCs), it is important to identify and map trends and patterns in research on MOOCs. This study does so by reviewing 362 empirical articles published in peer-reviewed journals from 2008 to 2015. For the purpose of this study, content analysis and discourse analysis were employed…

Trends and Variations of Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux: Results from GSSTF2c Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Si; Chiu, Long S.; Shie, Chung-Lin

2013-01-01

Trends and variations of Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF) version 2c (GSSTF2c) latent heat flux (LHF) are examined. This version of LHF takes account of the correction in Earth incidence angle. The trend of global mean LHF for GSSTF2c is much reduced relative to GSSTF version 2b Set 1 and Set 2 for the same period 1988-2008. Temporal increase of GSSTF2c LHF in the two decades is 11.0%, in which 3.1%, 5.8%, and 2.1% are attributed to the increase in wind, the increase in sea surface saturated air humidity, and the decrease in near-surface air humidity, respectively. The first empirical orthogonal function of LHF is a conventional El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode. However, the trends in LHF are independent of conventional ENSO phenomena. After removing ENSO signal, the pattern of LHF trends is primarily determined by the pattern of air-sea humidity difference trends.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-02-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. A validation of the derived trends for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates, allowed an assessment of the uncertainty of the modelled trends. The models agreed on the predominant continental scale patterns of trends, but disagreed on magnitudes and even on trend directions at the transition between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow, were more variable and should be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of the trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of Eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail.

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980-2014).

PubMed

Nunes, A N; Lourenço, L; Meira, A C Castro

2016-12-15

Information on the spatial incidence of fire ignition density and burnt area, trends and drivers of wildfires is vitally important in providing support for environmental and civil protection policies, designing appropriate prevention measures and allocating firefighting resources. The key objectives of this study were to analyse the geographical incidence and temporal trends for wildfires, as well as the main drivers of fire ignition and burnt area in Portugal on a municipal level. The results show that fires are not distributed uniformly throughout Portuguese territory, both in terms of ignition density and burnt area. One spot in the north-western area is well defined, covering 10% of the municipalities where more than one third of the total fire ignitions are concentrated. In >80% of Portuguese municipalities, ignition density has registered a positive trend since the 1980s. With regard to burnt area, 60% of the municipalities had a nil annual trend, 35% showed a positive trend and 5%, located mainly in the central region, revealed negative trends. Geographically weighted regression proved more efficient in identifying the most relevant physical and anthropogenic drivers of municipal wildfires in comparison with simple linear regression models. Topography, density of population, land cover and livestock were found to be significant in both ignition density and burnt area, although considerable variations were observed in municipal explanatory power. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in overweight and physical activity among U.S. military personnel, 1995-1998.

PubMed

Lindquist, C H; Bray, R M

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study was to deter mine whether changes in physical activity patterns account for the increasing prevalence of obesity, utilizing a large, representative sample of male and female U.S. military personnel. Data from the 1995 and 1998 waves of the Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors among Military Personnel were utilized. Overweight was defined as body mass index > or =25. Respondents were classified as physically active if they reported > or =3 days/week of vigorous activity. Three sequential multivariate logistic regression models were analyzed separately for males and females with overweight regressed on year of study (1995 or 1998), demographic characteristics, and physical activity. Some 50% of military personnel in 1995 and 54% in 1998 were classified as overweight, representing a significant increase in overweight over the 3-year period for both males and females. Overweight military personnel were more likely to be male, older, African American or Hispanic, married, and enlisted personnel. Physical activity levels were high, with around 67% of the sample engaging in regular, vigorous physical activity. Although physical activity levels increased among male personnel between 1995 and 1998, there was not an independent association between physical activity and overweight, and changing physical activity patterns did not account for the increase in over weight from 1995 to 1998. The U.S. military is experiencing a trend toward increasing overweight that mirrors the pattern among the general population. The results of this study suggest that the rise in overweight among the military is not explained by a decrease in physical activity. Copyright 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

Spatial patterns of soil nutrients and groundwater levels within the Debre Mawi watershed of the Ethiopian highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, Christian; Tilahun, Seifu; Dagnew, Dessalegn; Zegeye, Assefe; Tebebu, Tigist; Yitaferu, Birru; Steenhuis, Tammo

2015-04-01

Persistent patterns of erosion have emerged in the Ethiopian highlands leading to soil and water conservation practices being implemented throughout the countryside. A common concern is the loss of soil fertility and loss of soil water. This study investigates the spatial patterns of soil nutrients and water table depths in a small sub-watershed in the northwestern Ethiopian highlands. NPK, a particularly important group of nutrients for inorganic fertilizer considerations, did not follow a consistent trend as a group along and across slope and land use transects. Whereas nitrogen content was greatest in the upslope regions (~0.1% TN), available phosphorus had comparably similar content in the different slope regions throughout the watershed (~2.7 mg/kg). The exchangeable cations (K, Ca, Mg) did increase in content in a downslope direction (in most cases though, they were highest in the middle region) but not consistently later in the season. On average, calcium (40 cmol/kg), magnesium (5 cmol/kg), and potassium (0.5 cmol/kg) were orders of magnitudes different in content. The perched water table in different areas of the watershed showed a very distinct trend. The lower part of the sub-watershed had shallower levels of water table depths (less than 10 cm from the surface) than did the upper parts of the sub-watershed (usually greater than 120 cm from the surface). The middle part of the sub-watershed had water table depths located at 40 to 70 cm below the surface. These results show how the landscape slope position and land use may be important for planning where and when soil nutrients and water would be expected to be appropriately "conserved" or stored.

Study of temporal trends in mercury concentrations in the primary flight feathers of Strix aluco.

PubMed

Varela, Z; García-Seoane, R; Fernández, J A; Carballeira, A; Aboal, J R

2016-08-01

Temporal trends in Hg concentrations were determined in the primary flight feathers of 146 specimens of Strix aluco which had died in various Wildlife Recovery Centres in Galicia (NW Spain) between 1997 and 2014. The aim of the study was to determine whether standardization of a primary flight feather (or feathers) in this species is essential for identifying temporal trends in Hg concentrations. For this purpose, we had to first standardize the feather(s) analyzed to enable comparison of the levels of Hg detected in different feathers. The results show a high degree of both inter and intra-individual variability but despite that, it was possible to identify P5 as the most representative feather taking into account the amount of metal excreted in each feather and the intra-individual variability: its median was 133ng, which represents 15% (from 7% to 15%) of the total Hg present in all the primary feathers. However, this "standard feather" did not reveal any temporal trend in Hg concentrations for the study period. This lack of trend was found irrespective of the feather considered and it is expected that detection of any existing trend would also not depend on the feather considered. We conclude that use of any particular feather is not essential for identifying temporal trends in Hg concentrations, because the pattern will be identified regardless of the feather selected. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

2016-01-01

This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Patterns in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions: projections of neonatal and under-5 mortality to 2035.

PubMed

Walker, Neff; Yenokyan, Gayane; Friberg, Ingrid K; Bryce, Jennifer

2013-09-21

Urgent calls have been made for improved understanding of changes in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions, and their country-level determinants. We examined historical trends in coverage of interventions with proven effectiveness, and used them to project rates of child and neonatal mortality in 2035 in 74 Countdown to 2015 priority countries. We investigated coverage of all interventions for which evidence was available to suggest effective reductions in maternal and child mortality, for which indicators have been defined, and data have been obtained through household surveys. We reanalysed coverage data from 312 nationally-representative household surveys done between 1990 and 2011 in 69 countries, including 58 Countdown countries. We developed logistic Loess regression models for patterns of coverage change for each intervention, and used k-means cluster analysis to divide interventions into three groups with different historical patterns of coverage change. Within each intervention group, we examined performance of each country in achieving coverage gains. We constructed models that included baseline coverage, region, gross domestic product, conflict, and governance to examine country-specific annual percentage coverage change for each group of indicators. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to predict mortality rates of children younger than 5 years (henceforth, under 5) and in the neonatal period in 2035 for Countdown countries if trends in coverage continue unchanged (historical trends scenario) and if each country accelerates intervention coverage to the highest level achieved by a Countdown country with similar baseline coverage level (best performer scenario). Odds of coverage of three interventions (antimalarial treatment, skilled attendant at birth, and use of improved sanitation facilities) have decreased since 1990, with a mean annual decrease of 5·5% (SD 2·7%). Odds of coverage of four interventions--all related to the prevention of malaria--have increased rapidly, with a mean annual increase of 27·9% (7·3%). Odds of coverage of other interventions have slowly increased, with a mean annual increase of 5·3% (3·5%). Rates of coverage change varied widely across countries; we could not explain the differences by measures of gross domestic product, conflict, or governance. On the basis of LiST projections, we predicted that the number of Countdown countries with an under-5 mortality rate of fewer than 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from four (5%) of the 74 in 2010, to nine (12%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and to 15 (20%) under the best performer scenario. The number of countries with neonatal mortality rates of fewer than 11 per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from three (4%) in 2010, to ten (14%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and 67 (91%) under the best performer scenario. The number of under-5 deaths per year would decrease from an estimated 7·6 million in 2010, to 5·4 million (28% decrease) if historical trends continue, and to 2·3 million (71% decrease) under the best performer scenario. Substantial reductions in child deaths are possible, but only if intensified efforts to achieve intervention coverage are implemented successfully within each of the Countdown countries. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary trends in arvicolids and the endemic murid Mikrotia - New data and a critical overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maul, Lutz C.; Masini, Federico; Parfitt, Simon A.; Rekovets, Leonid; Savorelli, Andrea

2014-07-01

The study of evolutionary rates dates back to the work of Simpson and Haldane in the 1940s. Small mammals, especially Plio-Pleistocene arvicolids (voles and lemmings), are particularly suited for such studies because they have an unusually complete fossil record and exhibit significant evolutionary change through time. In recent decades, arvicolids have been the focus of intensive research devoted to the tempo and mode of evolutionary change and the identification of trends in dental evolution that can be used to correlate and date fossil sites. These studies have raised interesting questions about whether voles and lemmings had unique evolutionary trajectories, or show convergent evolutionary patterns with other hypsodont rodents. Here we review evolutionary patterns in selected arvicolid lineages and endemic Messinian murids (Mikrotia spp.) and discuss reasons for convergence in dental morphology in these two groups of hypsodont rodents. The results substantiate previously detected patterns, but the larger dataset shows that some trends are less regular than previous studies have suggested. With the exception of a pervasive and sustained trend towards increased hypsodonty, our results show that other features do not follow consistent patterns in all lineages, exhibiting a mosaic pattern comprising stasis, variable rate evolution and gradual unidirectional change through time. Evidence for higher evolutionary rates is found in lineages apparently undergoing adaptations to new ecological niches. In the case of Mikrotia, Microtus voles and the water vole (Mimomys-Arvicola) lineage, a shift to a fossorial lifestyle appears to have been an important driving force in their evolution. For other characters, different causes can be invoked; for example a shift to a semi-aquatic lifestyle may be responsible for the trend towards increasing size in Arvicola. Biochronological application of the data should take into account the complexity and biases of the data.

Complex responses of spring alpine vegetation phenology to snow cover dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming

2017-09-01

Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a New Digital Automated Glycemic Pattern Detection Tool

PubMed Central

Albiñana, Emma; Artes, Maite; Corcoy, Rosa; Fernández-García, Diego; García-Alemán, Jorge; García-Cuartero, Beatriz; González, Cintia; Rivero, María Teresa; Casamira, Núria; Weissmann, Jörg

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Blood glucose meters are reliable devices for data collection, providing electronic logs of historical data easier to interpret than handwritten logbooks. Automated tools to analyze these data are necessary to facilitate glucose pattern detection and support treatment adjustment. These tools emerge in a broad variety in a more or less nonevaluated manner. The aim of this study was to compare eDetecta, a new automated pattern detection tool, to nonautomated pattern analysis in terms of time investment, data interpretation, and clinical utility, with the overarching goal to identify early in development and implementation of tool areas of improvement and potential safety risks. Methods: Multicenter web-based evaluation in which 37 endocrinologists were asked to assess glycemic patterns of 4 real reports (2 continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion [CSII] and 2 multiple daily injection [MDI]). Endocrinologist and eDetecta analyses were compared on time spent to analyze each report and agreement on the presence or absence of defined patterns. Results: eDetecta module markedly reduced the time taken to analyze each case on the basis of the emminens eConecta reports (CSII: 18 min; MDI: 12.5), compared to the automatic eDetecta analysis. Agreement between endocrinologists and eDetecta varied depending on the patterns, with high level of agreement in patterns of glycemic variability. Further analysis of low level of agreement led to identifying areas where algorithms used could be improved to optimize trend pattern identification. Conclusion: eDetecta was a useful tool for glycemic pattern detection, helping clinicians to reduce time required to review emminens eConecta glycemic reports. No safety risks were identified during the study. PMID:29091477

A Review of a Decade of Rugby Union Injury Epidemiology: 2007-2017.

PubMed

Viviers, Pierre L; Viljoen, Jeandré T; Derman, Wayne

Rugby union is the most widely played team collision sport globally. As with other contact sports, there is substantial risk of injury. To date, the majority of studies on injury epidemiology have focused on elite male cohorts, which inherently prevents extrapolation of research findings to other groups within the player continuum. This review aims to describe emerging injury trends across the spectrum of various rugby union subpopulations and to highlight gaps that may influence future injury prevention tactics. Relevant articles published from 2007 to 2017 were obtained by searching MEDLINE, PubMed, and SPORT Discus. Studies on 15-a-side rugby union, implemented according to the 2007 consensus statement on injury definitions and data collection procedures for injuries in rugby union, were used. Clinical review. Level 3. Match injuries occur more frequently than training injuries. Injury rates increase consistently according to age and level of play. Severity of injury often is greater among lower levels of the game, and sex-specific differences relating to injury patterns and incidence rates exist. To date, a paucity of injury surveillance data exists for women and players of both sexes at all levels of community rugby union. Furthermore, the incidence of injuries and illnesses are poorly reported in epidemiological studies. Despite methodological differences, injury trends remain consistent throughout all levels of play.

Apple skin patterning is associated with differential expression of MYB10

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Some apple (Malus × domestica Borkh.) varieties have attractive striping patterns, a quality attribute that is important for determining apple fruit market acceptance. Most apple cultivars (e.g. 'Royal Gala') produce fruit with a defined fruit pigment pattern, but in the case of 'Honeycrisp' apple, trees can produce fruits of two different kinds: striped and blushed. The causes of this phenomenon are unknown. Results Here we show that striped areas of 'Honeycrisp' and 'Royal Gala' are due to sectorial increases in anthocyanin concentration. Transcript levels of the major biosynthetic genes and MYB10, a transcription factor that upregulates apple anthocyanin production, correlated with increased anthocyanin concentration in stripes. However, nucleotide changes in the promoter and coding sequence of MYB10 do not correlate with skin pattern in 'Honeycrisp' and other cultivars differing in peel pigmentation patterns. A survey of methylation levels throughout the coding region of MYB10 and a 2.5 Kb region 5' of the ATG translation start site indicated that an area 900 bp long, starting 1400 bp upstream of the translation start site, is highly methylated. Cytosine methylation was present in all three contexts, with higher methylation levels observed for CHH and CHG (where H is A, C or T) than for CG. Comparisons of methylation levels of the MYB10 promoter in 'Honeycrisp' red and green stripes indicated that they correlate with peel phenotypes, with an enrichment of methylation observed in green stripes. Conclusions Differences in anthocyanin levels between red and green stripes can be explained by differential transcript accumulation of MYB10. Different levels of MYB10 transcript in red versus green stripes are inversely associated with methylation levels in the promoter region. Although observed methylation differences are modest, trends are consistent across years and differences are statistically significant. Methylation may be associated with the presence of a TRIM retrotransposon within the promoter region, but the presence of the TRIM element alone cannot explain the phenotypic variability observed in 'Honeycrisp'. We suggest that methylation in the MYB10 promoter is more variable in 'Honeycrisp' than in 'Royal Gala', leading to more variable color patterns in the peel of this cultivar. PMID:21599973

The use of ocular hypotensive drugs for glaucoma treatment: changing trend in Taiwan from 1997 to 2007.

PubMed

Lin, Jen-Chieh

2015-01-01

Treatment of glaucoma has increasingly favored better intraocular pressure (IOP) lowering efficacy and safety of topical medications. The introduction of newer ocular hypotensive drugs (OHDs) has led changes in the prescribing patterns and treatment approaches. This study aimed to investigate the prescribing patterns, trends, and corresponding expenditures of OHDs in Taiwan over an 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. A nationally representative sample of 1 million ambulatory visits from the National Health Research Institute data sets was used. Patients with glaucoma who aged ≥18 years were identified with ICD-9-CM and A230 codes. Six categories of OHDs were used to describe the rates, patterns, expenditures, and changes of annual prescriptions for glaucoma patients. The number of OHD prescriptions has tripled during the 11 years. Although the prescribing trend was being away from monotherapy with β-blockers, this class remained the most commonly used OHD up to 2007. Prostaglandin analogs were the second most frequently prescribed OHDs since 2000. Changing prescribing patterns and increased patients were the main contributors to the rise in OHD expenditures. Part of increased expenditure was likely offset by reduced needs for laser and surgical interventions. The prescriptions of OHDs are shifting to newer categories and combination therapy. These findings provided insights into recent trends in management of glaucoma patients in Taiwan and implied a similar trend toward recent clinical reports and practices recommendations in the guidelines.

Conceptual framework and trend analysis of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses, Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley groundwater basin, Nevada, 1966-2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, Tracie R.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

2018-05-31

This report identifies water-level trends in wells and provides a conceptual framework that explains the hydrologic stresses and factors causing the trends in the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley (PMOV) groundwater basin, southern Nevada. Water levels in 79 wells were analyzed for trends between 1966 and 2016. The magnitude and duration of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses were analyzed graphically, statistically, and with water-level models.The conceptual framework consists of multiple stress-specific conceptual models to explain water-level responses to the following hydrologic stresses: recharge, evapotranspiration, pumping, nuclear testing, and wellbore equilibration. Dominant hydrologic stresses affecting water-level trends in each well were used to categorize trends as nonstatic, transient, or steady state.The conceptual framework of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses and trend analyses provide a comprehensive understanding of the PMOV basin and vicinity. The trend analysis links water-level fluctuations in wells to hydrologic stresses and potential factors causing the trends. Transient and steady-state trend categorizations can be used to determine the appropriate water-level data for groundwater studies.

Channel evolution under changing hydrological regimes in anabranching reaches downstream of the Three Gorges Dam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jianqiao; Zhang, Wei; Yuan, Jing; Fan, Yongyang

2018-03-01

Elucidating the influence of dams on fluvial processes can benefit river protection and basin management. Based on hydrological and topographical data, we analyzed channel evolution in anabranching reaches under changing hydrological regimes influenced by the Three Gorges Dam. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the channels of specific anabranching reaches were defined as flood trend channels or low-flow trend channels according to the distribution of their flow characteristics. The anabranching reaches were classified as T1 or T2. The former is characterized by the correspondence between the flood trend and branch channels, and the latter is characterized by the correspondence between the flood trend and main channels; 2) on the basis of the new classification, the discrepant patterns of channel evolution seen in anabranching reaches were unified into a pattern that showed flood trend channels shrinking and low-flow trend channels expanding; 3) flood abatement and the increased duration of moderate flow discharges are the main factors that affect channel adjustments in anabranching reaches after dam construction; and 4) in the next few decades, the pattern of channel evolution will remain the same as that of the Three Gorges Dam operation. That is, the morphology will fully adapt to a flow with a low coefficient of variation. Our results are of interest in the management of the Yangtze River and other rivers influenced by dams.

Validation of the Predicted Circumferential and Radial Mode Sound Power Levels in the Inlet and Exhaust Ducts of a Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, L. Danielle

2012-01-01

Fan inflow distortion tone noise has been studied computationally and experimentally. Data from two experiments in the NASA Glenn Advanced Noise Control Fan rig have been used to validate acoustic predictions. The inflow to the fan was distorted by cylindrical rods inserted radially into the inlet duct one rotor chord length upstream of the fan. The rods were arranged in both symmetric and asymmetric circumferential patterns. In-duct and farfield sound pressure level measurements were recorded. It was discovered that for positive circumferential modes, measured circumferential mode sound power levels in the exhaust duct were greater than those in the inlet duct and for negative circumferential modes, measured total circumferential mode sound power levels in the exhaust were less than those in the inlet. Predicted trends in overall sound power level were proven to be useful in identifying circumferentially asymmetric distortion patterns that reduce overall inlet distortion tone noise, as compared to symmetric arrangements of rods. Detailed comparisons between the measured and predicted radial mode sound power in the inlet and exhaust duct indicate limitations of the theory.

Are species photosynthetic characteristics good predictors of seedling post-hurricane demographic patterns and species spatiotemporal distribution in a hurricane impacted wet montane forest?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Denneko; McLaren, Kurt

2018-05-01

In situ measurements of leaf level photosynthetic response to light were collected from seedlings of ten tree species from a tropical montane wet forest, the John Crow Mountains, Jamaica. A model-based recursive partitioning ('mob') algorithm was then used to identify species associations based on their fitted photosynthetic response curves. Leaf area dark respiration (RD) and light saturated maximum photosynthetic (Amax) rates were also used as 'mob' partitioning variables, to identify species associations based on seedling demographic patterns (from June 2007 to May 2010) following a hurricane (Aug. 2007) and the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of stems in 2006 and 2012. RD and Amax rates ranged from 1.14 to 2.02 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1 and 2.97-5.87 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1, respectively, placing the ten species in the range of intermediate shade tolerance. Several parsimonious species 'mob' groups were formed based on 1) interspecific differences among species response curves, 2) variations in post-hurricane seedling demographic trends and 3) RD rates and species spatiotemporal distribution patterns at aspects that are more or less exposed to hurricanes. The composition of parsimonious groupings based on photosynthetic curves was not concordant with the groups based on demographic trends but was partially concordant with the RD - species spatiotemporal distribution groups. Our results indicated that the influence of photosynthetic characteristics on demographic traits and species distributions was not straightforward. Rather, there was a complex pattern of interaction between ecophysiological and demographic traits, which determined species successional status, post-hurricane response and ultimately, species distribution at our study site.

Self-management levels of diet and metabolic risk factors according to disease duration in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Cho, Sukyung; Kim, Minkyeong; Park, Kyong

2018-02-01

Metabolic risk factors should be managed effectively in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to prevent or delay diabetic complications. This study aimed to compare the self-management levels of diet and metabolic risk factors in patients with T2DM, according to the duration of illness, and to examine the trends in self-management levels during the recent decades. Data were collected from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES, 1998-2014). In our analysis, 4,148 patients with T2DM, aged ≥ 30 years, were categorized according to the duration of their illness (< 5 years, 5-9 years, and ≥ 10 years). Demographic and lifestyle information was assessed through self-administered questionnaires, and biomarker levels (e.g., fasting glucose level, blood pressure, or lipid level) were obtained from a health examination. Dietary intake was assessed by a 24-recall, and adherence level to dietary guidelines (meal patterns and intake levels of calories, carbohydrates, vegetable/seaweed, sodium, and alcohol) were assessed. Multivariable generalized linear regression and unconditional logistic regression models were used to compare the prevalence rates of hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, and hypertension according to the duration of patients' illness, accounting for the complex survey design of the KNHANES. In the multivariable adjusted models, patients with a longer duration (≥ 10 years) of T2DM had a higher prevalence of hyperglycemia than those with a shorter duration of T2DM (< 5 years) (odds ratio 2.20, 95% confidence interval 1.61-3.01, P for trend < 0.001). We did not observe any associations of disease duration with the prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia. In addition, the adherence levels to dietary recommendations did not significantly differ according to disease duration, except adherence to moderate alcohol consumption. There were significant decreasing trends in the prevalence of hyperglycemia in patients with a duration of illness ≥ 10 years ( P for trend = 0.004). Although the proportion of patients with adequate control of glucose levels has improved in recent decades, poorer self-management has been found in those with a longer disease duration. These findings suggest the need for well-planned and individualized patient education programs to improve self-management levels and quality of life by preventing or delaying diabetic complications.

Assessing the fitness-for-purpose of satellite multi-mission ocean color climate data records: A protocol applied to OC-CCI chlorophyll-a data.

PubMed

Mélin, F; Vantrepotte, V; Chuprin, A; Grant, M; Jackson, T; Sathyendranath, S

2017-12-15

In this work, trend estimates are used as indicators to compare the multi-annual variability of different satellite chlorophyll- a (Chl a ) data and to assess the fitness-for-purpose of multi-mission Chl a products as climate data records (CDR). Under the assumption that single-mission products are free from spurious temporal artifacts and can be used as benchmark time series, multi-mission CDRs should reproduce the main trend patterns observed by single-mission series when computed over their respective periods. This study introduces and applies quantitative metrics to compare trend distributions from different data records. First, contingency matrices compare the trend diagnostics associated with two satellite products when expressed in binary categories such as existence, significance and signs of trends. Contingency matrices can be further summarized by metrics such as Cohen's κ index that rates the overall agreement between the two distributions of diagnostics. A more quantitative measure of the discrepancies between trends is provided by the distributions of differences between trend slopes. Thirdly, maps of the level of significance P of a t -test quantifying the degree to which two trend estimates differ provide a statistical, spatially-resolved, evaluation. The proposed methodology is applied to the multi-mission Ocean Colour-Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) Chl a data. The agreement between trend distributions associated with OC-CCI data and single-mission products usually appears as good as when single-mission products are compared. As the period of analysis is extended beyond 2012 to 2015, the level of agreement tends to be degraded, which might be at least partly due to the aging of the MODIS sensor on-board Aqua. On the other hand, the trends displayed by the OC-CCI series over the short period 2012-2015 are very consistent with those observed with VIIRS. These results overall suggest that the OC-CCI Chl a data can be used for multi-annual time series analysis (including trend detection), but with some caution required if recent years are included, particularly in the central tropical Pacific. The study also recalls the challenges associated with creating a multi-mission ocean color data record suitable for climate research.

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

PubMed

Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries; no changes or increases in prevalence are noted in some African countries. Reasons for time changes need to be investigated further; based on the results, various prevention measures have contributed to reductions, and further tailored HBV prevention is required to combat the disease on a global level. Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is solar correction for long-term trend studies stable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

When calculating long-term trends in the ionosphere, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle (i.e. of solar activity) must be removed from data, because it is much stronger than the long-term trend. When a data series is analyzed for trend, usual approach is first to calculate from all data their dependence on solar activity and create an observational model of dependence on solar activity. Then the model data are subtracted from observations and trend is computed from residuals. This means that it is assumed that the solar activity dependence is stable over the whole data series period of time. But what happens if it is not the case? As an ionospheric parameter we consider foE from two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence with one correction for the whole period is complex. For yearly average values for both stations first foE is slightly decreasing in 1975-1990, then the trend levels off or a very little increase occurs in 1990-2005, and finally in 2006-2014 a remarkable decrease is observed. This does not seem to be physically plausible. However, when the solar correction is calculated separately for the three above periods, we obtain a smooth slightly negative trend which changes after the mid-1990 into no trend in coincidence with change of ozone trend. While solar corrections for the first two periods are similar (even though not equal), the solar activity dependence of foE in the third period (lower solar activity) is clearly different. Also foF2 trend revealed some effect of unstable solar correction. Thus the stability of solar correction should be carefully tested when calculating ionospheric trends. This could perhaps explain some of differences between the past published trend results.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments in terms of regional and large-scale climate variability during the past.

Partitioning Regional Sea Level in the Bay of Bengal from a Global Grace and Jason-1/-2 Joint Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Uebbing, B.; Rietbroek, R.

2014-12-01

In Bangladesh, large areas are located just above sea level. Present-day sea level rise in combination with land subsidence, poses a major threat to the coastal regions, home of about 30 million people. Consequently, monitoring of sea level and knowledge of all recurrent effects are crucial for coastal protection. As part of the Belmont-project "Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation" (BAND-AID) a global inverse method is employed to estimate the different contributors to sea level, such as melting of glaciers and ice-sheets, hydrology, glacial isostatic adjustment, as well as shallow and deep steric effects from Jason-1/2 altimetry and GRACE data. In the global inverse method, spatial patterns (fingerprints) are computed a-priori for each of the contributing process, applying the sea level equation for mass fingerprints, and empirically (PCA) for steric fingerprints from ARGO data. Temporal GRACE gravity data and along-track Jason-1/ -2 altimetry is then combined to estimate the temporal evolution of these patterns, which allows the partitioning of altimetric sea level into individual sources. This method largely mitigates truncation and leakage problems associated with GRACE resolution. Globally, our estimates are close to others, although they point at a somewhat larger deep steric effect. In this work we provide preliminary results for the Bay of Bengal / Bangladesh region by confronting global inversion with local measurements. Estimated sea level trends are compared to trends from tide gauges and differences are interpreted in terms of unmodeled regional effects, such as land subsidence. Initial results provide an indication on the magnitude of the contributions from the different sources at the coast of Bangladesh / in the Bay of Bengal; e.g. the contribution from the Greenland ice-sheets between 2003 and 2011 (0.69 mm/a) is significantly larger compared to that of Antarctica (0.15 mm/a), but the biggest effect results from steric sea level changes (-1.5 to 6 mm/a).

Three Decades of Remote Sensing Based Tropical Forests Phenological Patterns and Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didan, K.

2010-12-01

The faint climatic seasonality of tropical rain forests is believed to be the reason these biomes lack strong and detectable seasonality. Forest seasonality is a critical element of ecosystem functions. It moderates the echo-hydrology, carbon, and nutrient exchange of the area. While deciduous forests exhibit distinct and strong seasonality, tropical forests do not, yet they play a large role in the cycling of energy and mass. Tropical forests represent a large percentage of vegetated land and their importance to the Earth system stems from their biological diversity, their habitat role, their role in regulating global weather, and the role they play in carbon storage. While Tropical forests are well buffered by their sheer size, their vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by the human pressure. All of this begs the questions of what are the patterns and characteristic of tropical forests phenology and are there any detectable trends over the last three decades of synoptic remote sensing. These three decades comprise different episodes of droughts and an ever increasing level of human encroachment. In so far understanding the function and dynamic of these biomes, field studies continue to play a major role, but synoptic remote sensing is emerging as a viable tool to addressing the spatial and temporal scale associated with this problem. Recent studies of Brazilian rainforest with synoptic remote sensing point to a sizable seasonal signal coincident with the dry season. However, these studies were not extensive in time or space and did not look at other rainforests. Using data from AVHRR and MODIS, we generated a 30 year record of the 2 bands Enhance Vegetation Index (EVI2), and analyzed the patterns and trends of land surface phenology across all tropical forests using the homogeneous phenology cluster approach. We chose EVI because of its superior performance over these dense forests, and we selected the homogeneous phenology cluster approach to abate the noise associated with single pixel approaches. This approach reasonably assumes that land surface seasonality is homogeneous over areas with similar climate, soil, elevation gradient, aspect, and land cover. Our goal was to establish the patterns and characteristic of the land surface phenology of these biomes and to analyze their spatio-temporal trends. Strong variability was observed across the forests of South America, Central Africa and South East Asia. The South American forest exhibited the faintest seasonal signal with the strongest response to droughts. These forests show a more distinct and ever more evident dry season response. The Tropical forest of central Africa shows a more evident seasonal signal and a trend where the season is breaking into a bimodal growth mode, with two distinct and separate growth periods. The Tropical forest of South East Asia shows a more fragmented seasonality that most likely is the result of human pressure and its impact on land cover. Although we have not looked at the underlying climatic factors, we hypothesize that the seasonality of these forests are mostly shaped by the climatic patterns which would suggest that these trends will become more evident as climate continues to change.

HIV-1 drug resistance surveillance in antiretroviral treatment-naive individuals from a reference hospital in Guatemala, 2010-2013.

PubMed

Avila-Ríos, Santiago; García-Morales, Claudia; Garrido-Rodríguez, Daniela; Tapia-Trejo, Daniela; Girón-Callejas, Amalia Carolina; Mendizábal-Burastero, Ricardo; Escobar-Urias, Ingrid Yessenia; García-González, Blanca Leticia; Navas-Castillo, Sabrina; Pinzón-Meza, Rodolfo; Mejía-Villatoro, Carlos Rodolfo; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo

2015-04-01

The recent expansion of antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in middle/low-income countries has been associated with increasing prevalence of HIV pre-ART drug resistance (PDR). We assessed PDR prevalence, patterns, and trends in Guatemala. Blood samples from 1,084 ART-naive individuals, enrolled from October 2010 to December 2013 at the Roosevelt Hospital in Guatemala City, were obtained. PDR was evaluated using the WHO mutation list for transmitted drug resistance (TDR) surveillance. An overall PDR prevalence of 7.3% (95% CI 5.8-9.0%) was observed for the whole study period. TDR to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) was the highest (4.9%, p<0.001), followed by nucleoside RT inhibitors (1.8%) and protease inhibitors (1.0%). No significant trends in PDR prevalence were observed during the study period. However, higher NNRTI PDR levels were found in individuals with >500 and 350-500 CD4(+) T cells/μl (7.4% and 8.7%, respectively) compared to individuals with <350 CD4(+) T cells/μl (3.7%; p=0.039 and p=0.007, respectively), as well as a tendency of higher levels of NNRTI transmitted drug resistance (DR) in individuals with recent infection determined by HIV incidence tests (9.7%), suggesting increasing trends in time. Clusters of viruses with NNRTI PDR suggesting complex transmission networks were observed. No associations between PDR and demographic variables were found. PDR in Guatemala remains at an intermediate level. Nevertheless, we have shown evidence suggesting increasing trends in NNRTI PDR, which need to be taken into account in national HIV management policies.

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is related to the seasons and to the EL Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon that may be partly modulated by the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 6. At almost all of the long-term stream-gaging stations considered in this study, average total flow (and to a lesser extent average base flow) during the winter months of January to March tended to be low following El Ni?o periods and high following La Ni?a periods, and this tendency was accentuated during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 7. The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon occurs at a relatively short time scale (a few to several years) and appears to be more strongly related to processes controlling rainfall and direct runoff than ground-water storage and base flow. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge. Because ground water provides about 99 percent of Hawaii's domestic drinking water, a reduction in ground-water storage and recharge has serious implications for drinking-water availability. In addition, reduction in stream base flows may reduce habitat availability for native stream fauna and water availability for irrigation purposes. Further study is needed to determine (1) whether the downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002 will continue or whether the observed pattern is part of a long-term cycle in which base flows may eventually return to levels measured during 1913 to the early 1940s, (2) the physical causes for the detected trends and variations in streamflow, and (3) whether regional climate indicators successfully can be used to predict streamflow trends and variations throughout the State. These needs for future study underscore the importance of maintaining a network of long-term-trend stream-gaging stations in Hawaii.

The malleability of infant motor development: cautions based on studies of child-rearing practices in Yucatan.

PubMed

Solomons, H C

1978-11-01

Tests with the Bayley Motor Scale were given to 288 infants, equally divided by sex, in Yucatan, Mexico. These were 2 to 54 weeks in age and came from three sociocultural levels. In comparison to USA infants, early acceleration of motor development was followed by a marked downward trend. This phenomenon, if observed in a single child, may indicate progressive neurologic disease. Child-rearing practices would appear to account for the difference in pattern of test performance.

Implications for air quality and the impact of financial and economic crisis in South Spain: Geochemical evolution of atmospheric aerosol in the ceramic region of Bailén

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez de la Campa, A. M.; de la Rosa, J. D.

2014-12-01

A temporal series study of atmospheric aerosol was performed over the last ten years (2003-2012) in an urban background monitoring station with ceramic industrial influence, in Bailén, SE Spain. Temporal trends of major and minor chemical components of PM10 for a long term data series were investigated, showing that PM10 concentrations have been steadily decreasing over almost a decade, with a statistical significance. Measurements indicate a reduction of elements and components related to the industrial activity of brick-ceramic production (V, Cd, Rb, La, Cr, Ni, As, Pb and SO42-). Conversely, Cu levels define an increasing trend from the beginning of the study period but with the highest step trend since 2011-2012, coinciding with the beginning of the financial and economic crisis in 2008. A similar time evolution pattern of Cu and OC, EC, and K levels may be a tracer of domestic local combustion source, and a new biomass burning source has been identified. Chemical composition of olive tree logs suggest as the combustion of wood with high concentration of Cu can imply an increase of Cu concentration in the atmospheric particles compared with other sources such as traffic.

Economic development, urbanization, technological change and overweight: What do we learn from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys?

PubMed Central

Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Suhrcke, Marc

2014-01-01

Obesity and overweight are spreading fast in developing countries, and have reached world record levels in some of them. Capturing the size, patterns and trends of the problem has, however, been severely hampered by the lack of comparable data in low and middle income countries. We seek to begin to fill this gap by testing several hypotheses on the determinants/correlates of overweight among women, related to the influence of economic and technological development. We undertake econometric analysis of nationally representative data on about 878,000 women aged 15–49 from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 56 countries over the years 1991–2009. Our findings support most previously expressed hypotheses of what might explain obesity patterns in developing countries, but they also reject some prior notions and add considerable nuance to the emerging pattern. PMID:24457038

Where Am I? Location Archetype Keyword Extraction from Urban Mobility Patterns

PubMed Central

Kostakos, Vassilis; Juntunen, Tomi; Goncalves, Jorge; Hosio, Simo; Ojala, Timo

2013-01-01

Can online behaviour be used as a proxy for studying urban mobility? The increasing availability of digital mobility traces has provided new insights into collective human behaviour. Mobility datasets have been shown to be an accurate proxy for daily behaviour and social patterns, and behavioural data from Twitter has been used to predict real world phenomena such as cinema ticket sale volumes, stock prices, and disease outbreaks. In this paper we correlate city-scale urban traffic patterns with online search trends to uncover keywords describing the pedestrian traffic location. By analysing a 3-year mobility dataset we show that our approach, called Location Archetype Keyword Extraction (LAKE), is capable of uncovering semantically relevant keywords for describing a location. Our findings demonstrate an overarching relationship between online and offline collective behaviour, and allow for advancing analysis of community-level behaviour by using online search keywords as a practical behaviour proxy. PMID:23704964

Where am I? Location archetype keyword extraction from urban mobility patterns.

PubMed

Kostakos, Vassilis; Juntunen, Tomi; Goncalves, Jorge; Hosio, Simo; Ojala, Timo

2013-01-01

Can online behaviour be used as a proxy for studying urban mobility? The increasing availability of digital mobility traces has provided new insights into collective human behaviour. Mobility datasets have been shown to be an accurate proxy for daily behaviour and social patterns, and behavioural data from Twitter has been used to predict real world phenomena such as cinema ticket sale volumes, stock prices, and disease outbreaks. In this paper we correlate city-scale urban traffic patterns with online search trends to uncover keywords describing the pedestrian traffic location. By analysing a 3-year mobility dataset we show that our approach, called Location Archetype Keyword Extraction (LAKE), is capable of uncovering semantically relevant keywords for describing a location. Our findings demonstrate an overarching relationship between online and offline collective behaviour, and allow for advancing analysis of community-level behaviour by using online search keywords as a practical behaviour proxy.

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season

PubMed Central

Wallace, John M.; Fu, Qiang; Smoliak, Brian V.; Lin, Pu; Johanson, Celeste M.

2012-01-01

A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations alone are compared with observations for the reference interval 1965–2000. Surface air temperature trends are disaggregated by boreal cold (November-April) versus warm (May-October) seasons and by high latitude northern (N: 40°–90 °N) versus southern (S: 60 °S–40 °N) domains. A dynamical adjustment is applied to remove the component of the cold-season surface air temperature trends (over land areas poleward of 40 °N) that are attributable to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The model simulations do not simulate the full extent of the wintertime warming over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continents during the later 20th century, much of which was dynamically induced. Expressed as fractions of the concurrent trend in global-mean sea surface temperature, the relative magnitude of the dynamically induced wintertime warming over domain N in the observations, the simulations with multiple forcings, and the runs forced by the buildup of greenhouse gases only is 7∶2∶1, and roughly comparable to the relative magnitude of the concurrent sea-level pressure trends. These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. PMID:22847408

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Trends in food intake in French children from 1999 to 2007: results from the INCA (étude Individuelle Nationale des Consommations Alimentaires) dietary surveys.

PubMed

Lioret, Sandrine; Dubuisson, Carine; Dufour, Ariane; Touvier, Mathilde; Calamassi-Tran, Gloria; Maire, Bernard; Volatier, Jean-Luc; Lafay, Lionel

2010-02-01

The objectives of the present study were to assess the intake of different food groups in French children aged 3-17 years (n 1455), and to analyse trends since a dietary survey undertaken 8 years ago. Dietary intake was evaluated using data from the 2006-7 cross-sectional INCA2 national dietary survey (étude Individuelle Nationale sur les Consommations Alimentaires), based on a 7 d food record. Dietary intake (percentage of subjects consuming the food group and amount eaten) was assessed for thirty-nine food categories. We observed variations in food consumption by age, sex, North-South regional gradient, seasonal period and educational level of the responding parent. Trends in dietary intake between 1999 and 2007 were determined by comparing the INCA1 (n 1126) and the INCA2 surveys. Both surveys had been carried out using the same methodology. The findings showed a decrease in energy intake in children aged 3-14 years, due to a reduction in the consumption of foods of animal origin and sweetened products. In adolescents aged 15-17 years, energy intake remained rather stable; during this 8-year period, the consumption of meat decreased, whereas the consumption of savoury snacks such as sandwiches and hamburgers significantly increased. These trends occurred during a time of growing concern about overweight and the associated co-morbidities in France. A number of public health measures were implemented over this period to improve dietary habits and physical activity patterns in children and adults. The periodic monitoring of dietary patterns through the INCA surveys is an essential part of the surveillance network in France.

Gender Patterns in the United States: Demographic Trends and Policy Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shehan, Constance L.; Scanzoni, John H.

1988-01-01

Describes long-term sociodemographic trends that have shaped American women's behaviors in three role sets: as workers, as wives and sexual partners, and as childbearers. Documents reactions to trends among conservative family policy spokespersons and among progressive spokespersons and looks at contrasting policy goals and objectives of…

Predicted and Measured Modal Sound Power Levels for a Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, L. Danielle

2010-01-01

Refinements have been made to a method for estimating the modal sound power levels of a ducted fan ingesting distorted inflow. By assuming that each propagating circumferential mode consists only of a single radial mode (the one with the highest cut-off ratio), circumferential mode sound power levels can be computed for a variety of inflow distortion patterns and operating speeds. Predictions from the refined theory have been compared to data from an experiment conducted in the Advanced Noise Control Fan at NASA Glenn Research Center. The inflow to the fan was distorted by inserting cylindrical rods radially into the inlet duct. The rods were placed at an axial location one rotor chord length upstream of the fan and arranged in both regular and irregular circumferential patterns. The fan was operated at 2000, 1800, and 1400 rpm. Acoustic pressure levels were measured in the fan inlet and exhaust ducts using the Rotating Rake fan mode measurement system. Far field sound pressure levels were also measured. It is shown that predicted trends in circumferential mode sound power levels closely match the experimental data for all operating speeds and distortion configurations tested. Insight gained through this work is being used to develop more advanced tools for predicting fan inflow distortion tone noise levels.

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Trends in nutritional intakes and nutrition-related cardiovascular disease risk factors in Lebanon: the need for immediate action.

PubMed

Nasreddine, Lara; Naja, Farah A; Sibai, Abla-Mehio; Helou, Khalil; Adra, Nada; Hwalla, Nahla

2014-01-01

To examine the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and their association with dietary variables in the Lebanese population while reviewing secular trends in the population's nutritional intakes and nutrition-related CVD risk factors. Data on CVD risk factors and food consumption patterns in Lebanon were collected from scholarly papers, including individual studies and systematic review articles. Electronic databases were searched using combinations of key terms. The prevalence of obesity in Lebanon followed an alarming increasing trend over time, paralleled by an escalation in the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia. Food consumption surveys illustrate an increasing trend in energy intake and the proportion of energy derived from fat and animal products, with a concomitant decrease in carbohydrates and cereals intakes. The shift towards an atherogenic diet coupled with the alarming increase in nutrition-related cardiovascular risk factors suggest that the Lebanese population is at an increased risk for CVDs. This should alert to the importance of formulating multicomponent intervention strategies at both the individual and population levels to halt the progression of nutrition-related diseases in the country, while highlighting the need for immediate public health efforts to promote the adoption of healthy dietary habits.

Trends and projections of Southern Hemisphere baroclinicity: the role of external forcing and impact on Australian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Sisson, Janice M.; Osbrough, Stacey L.

2017-05-01

Changes in the characteristics of Southern Hemisphere (SH) storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, have been related to changes in the annual cycle of SH baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability, as measured by the Phillips Criterion, have been found in the region of the climatological storm tracks; a zonal band of significant positive trends occur further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease/increase in baroclinic instability there is a decrease/increase in the growth rate of storm formation at these latitudes over this period, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. Based on model output from a multi-model ensemble (MME) of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, it is shown that these trends are the result of external radiative forcing, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols and land-use change. The MME is used in an analysis of variance method to separate the internal (natural) variability in the Phillips Criterion from influences associated with anomalous external radiative forcing. In all seasons, the leading externally forced mode has a significant trend and a loading pattern highly correlated with the pattern of trends in the Phillips Criterion. The covariance between the externally forced component of SH rainfall and the leading external mode strongly resembles the MME pattern of SH rainfall trends. A comparison between similar analyses of MME simulations using the second half of the twenty-first century of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios show that trends in the Phillips Criterion and rainfall are projected to continue and intensify under increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

Paleolithic and Mediterranean Diet Pattern Scores Are Inversely Associated with Biomarkers of Inflammation and Oxidative Balance in Adults.

PubMed

Whalen, Kristine A; McCullough, Marjorie L; Flanders, W Dana; Hartman, Terryl J; Judd, Suzanne; Bostick, Roberd M

2016-06-01

Chronic inflammation and oxidative balance are associated with poor diet quality and risk of cancer and other chronic diseases. A diet-inflammation/oxidative balance association may relate to evolutionary discordance. We investigated associations between 2 diet pattern scores, the Paleolithic and the Mediterranean, and circulating concentrations of 2 related biomarkers, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), an acute inflammatory protein, and F2-isoprostane, a reliable marker of in vivo lipid peroxidation. In a pooled cross-sectional study of 30- to 74-y-old men and women in an elective outpatient colonoscopy population (n = 646), we created diet scores from responses on Willett food-frequency questionnaires and measured plasma hsCRP and F2-isoprostane concentrations by ELISA and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, respectively. Both diet scores were calculated and categorized into quintiles, and their associations with biomarker concentrations were estimated with the use of general linear models to calculate and compare adjusted geometric means, and via unconditional ordinal logistic regression. There were statistically significant trends for decreasing geometric mean plasma hsCRP and F2-isoprostane concentrations with increasing quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores. The multivariable-adjusted ORs comparing those in the highest with those in the lowest quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores were 0.61 (95% CI: 0.36, 1.05; P-trend = 0.06) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.42, 1.20; P-trend = 0.01), respectively, for a higher hsCRP concentration, and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.27, 0.95; P-trend 0.01) and 0.39 (95% CI: 0.21, 0.73; P-trend = 0.01), respectively, for a higher F2-isoprostane concentration. These findings suggest that diets that are more Paleolithic- or Mediterranean-like may be associated with lower levels of systemic inflammation and oxidative stress in humans. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Population trends and distribution of Common Murre Uria aalge colonies in Washington, 1996-2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Susan M; Lyons, James E.

2017-01-01

Periodic assessments of population trends and changes in spatial distribution are valuable for managing marine birds and their breeding habitats, particularly when evaluating long-term response to threats such as oil spills, predation pressure, and changing ocean conditions. We evaluated recent trends in abundance and distribution of the Common Murre Uria aalge within Copalis, Quillayute Needles, and Flattery Rocks National Wildlife Refuges, which include all murre colonies in Washington except one, off-refuge, on Tatoosh Island. In 1996-2001 and 2010-2015, aerial photographic surveys were conducted during the incubation phase (mid-June through mid-July) each year. Using images from film (1996-2001) and digital (2010-2015) cameras that included all parts of each colony, we manually counted murres. We estimated population trend as annual percent change in whole-colony counts using an overdispersed Poisson regression model. Overall, numbers of murres counted at breeding colonies in Washington increased by 8.8% per year (95% CI 3.0%-14.9%) during 1996–2015. The overall statewide increase was driven by an increase at colonies in northern Washington of approximately 11% per year (95% CI 4.5%-17.8%). Despite an increasing trend, abundance remains lower than levels in the late 1970s, and the spatial distribution has changed. Colonies in southern Washington - where murres were historically the most abundant - are no longer active, or only minimally so, whereas colonies in the north - which were rarely active in the early 1970s - are now the largest. There was high variability in spatial distribution among years, a pattern that indicates a need for coordinated monitoring and movement studies throughout the California Current System to understand dispersal and colonization. Our results indicate that future management of refuge islands could protect both current and historic colony locations, given the patterns of colony dynamics and the uncertainty about long-term effects of a changing ocean ecosystem and predation pressure on the status of murres.

Spatial heterogeneity of greening and browning between and within bioclimatic zones in northern West Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, Victoria V.; Esau, Igor

2016-11-01

Studies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) have found broad changes in vegetation productivity in high northern latitudes in the past decades, including increases in NDVI (‘greening’) in tundra regions and decreases (‘browning’) in forest regions. The causes of these changes are not well understood but have been attributed to a variety of factors. We use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite data for 2000-2014 and focus on northern West Siberia—a hot spot of extensive landcover change due to rapid resource development, geomorphic change, climate change and reindeer grazing. The region is relatively little-studied in terms of vegetation productivity patterns and trends. This study examines changes between and within bioclimatic sub-zones and reveals differences between forest and treeless areas and differences in productivity even down to the tree species level. Our results show that only 18% of the total northern West Siberia area had statistically significant changes in productivity, with 8.4% increasing (greening) and 9.6% decreasing (browning). We find spatial heterogeneity in the trends, and contrasting trends both between and within bioclimatic zones. A key finding is the identification of contrasting trends for different species within the same bioclimatic zone. Browning is most prominent in areas of denser tree coverage, and particularly in evergreen coniferous forest with dark (Picea abie, Picea obovata) or light (Pinus sylvestris) evergreen and evergreen-majority mixed forests. In contrast, low density deciduous needle-leaf forest dominated by larch (Larix sibirica), shows a significant increase in productivity, even while neighboring different species show productivity decrease. These results underscore the complexity of the patterns of variability and trends in vegetation productivity, and suggest the need for spatially and thematically detailed studies to better understand the response of different northern forest types and species to climate and environmental change.

Paleolithic and Mediterranean Diet Pattern Scores Are Inversely Associated with Biomarkers of Inflammation and Oxidative Balance in Adults123

PubMed Central

McCullough, Marjorie L; Flanders, W Dana; Hartman, Terryl J; Judd, Suzanne; Bostick, Roberd M

2016-01-01

Background: Chronic inflammation and oxidative balance are associated with poor diet quality and risk of cancer and other chronic diseases. A diet–inflammation/oxidative balance association may relate to evolutionary discordance. Objective: We investigated associations between 2 diet pattern scores, the Paleolithic and the Mediterranean, and circulating concentrations of 2 related biomarkers, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), an acute inflammatory protein, and F2-isoprostane, a reliable marker of in vivo lipid peroxidation. Methods: In a pooled cross-sectional study of 30- to 74-y-old men and women in an elective outpatient colonoscopy population (n = 646), we created diet scores from responses on Willett food-frequency questionnaires and measured plasma hsCRP and F2-isoprostane concentrations by ELISA and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry, respectively. Both diet scores were calculated and categorized into quintiles, and their associations with biomarker concentrations were estimated with the use of general linear models to calculate and compare adjusted geometric means, and via unconditional ordinal logistic regression. Results: There were statistically significant trends for decreasing geometric mean plasma hsCRP and F2-isoprostane concentrations with increasing quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores. The multivariable-adjusted ORs comparing those in the highest with those in the lowest quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores were 0.61 (95% CI: 0.36, 1.05; P-trend = 0.06) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.42, 1.20; P-trend = 0.01), respectively, for a higher hsCRP concentration, and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.27, 0.95; P-trend 0.01) and 0.39 (95% CI: 0.21, 0.73; P-trend = 0.01), respectively, for a higher F2-isoprostane concentration. Conclusion: These findings suggest that diets that are more Paleolithic- or Mediterranean-like may be associated with lower levels of systemic inflammation and oxidative stress in humans. PMID:27099230

Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim

2014-08-01

Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadri, S.; Kam, J.; Sheffield, J.

2016-02-01

The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of low flows as well as their generation mechanisms over large geographic regions can provide valuable insights and understanding for climate change impacts, regional frequency analysis, risk assessment of extreme events, and decision-making regarding allowable withdrawals. The goal of this paper is to examine nonstationarity in low flow generation across the eastern US and explore the potential anthropogenic influences or climate drivers. We use nonparametric tests to identify abrupt and gradual changes in time series of low flows and their timing for 508 USGS streamflow gauging sites in the eastern US with more than 50 years of daily data, to systematically distinguish the effects of human intervention from those of climate variability. A time series decomposition algorithm was applied to 1-day, 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day annual low flow time series that combines the Box-Ljung test for detection of autocorrelation, the Pettitt test for abrupt step changes and the Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trends. Examination of the USGS notes for each site showed that many of the sites with step changes and around half of the sites with an increasing trend have been documented as having some kind of regulation. Sites with decreasing or no trend are less likely to have documented influences on flows. Overall, a general pattern of increasing low flows in the northeast and decreasing low flows in the southeast is evident over a common time period (1951-2005), even when discarding sites with significant autocorrelation, documented regulation or other human impacts. The north-south pattern of trends is consistent with changes in antecedent precipitation. The main exception is along the mid-Atlantic coastal aquifer system from eastern Virginia northwards, where low flows have decreased despite increasing precipitation, and suggests that declining groundwater levels due to pumping may have contributed to decreased low flows. For most sites, the majority of low flows occur in one season in the late summer to fall, as driven by the lower precipitation and higher evaporative demand in this season, but this is complicated in many regions because of the presence of a secondary low flow season in the winter for sites in the extreme northeast and in the spring for sites in Florida. Trends in low flow timing are generally undetectable, although abrupt step changes appear to be associated with regulation.

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadri, S.; Kam, J.; Sheffield, J.

2015-03-01

The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of low flows as well as their generation mechanisms over large geographic regions can provide valuable insights and understanding for climate change impacts, regional frequency analysis, risk assessment of extreme events, and decision-making regarding allowable withdrawals. We use nonparametric tests to identify abrupt and gradual changes in time series of low flows and their timing for 508 USGS streamflow gauging sites in the eastern US with more than 50 years of daily data, to systematically distinguish the effects of human intervention from those of climate variability. A time series decomposition algorithm was applied to 1 day, 7 day, 30 day, and 90 day annual low flow time series that combines the Box-Ljung test for detection of autocorrelation, the Pettitt test for abrupt step changes and the Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trends. Examination of the USGS notes for each site confirmed that many of the step changes and around half of the sites with an increasing trend were associated with regulation. Around a third of the sites with a decreasing trend were associated with a change of gauge datum. Overall, a general pattern of increasing low flows in the northeast and decreasing low flows in the southeast is evident over a common time period (1951-2005), even when discarding sites with significant autocorrelation, documented regulation or other human impacts. The north-south pattern of trends is consistent with changes in antecedent precipitation. The main exception is along the mid-Atlantic coastal aquifer system from eastern Virginia northwards, where low flows have decreased despite increasing precipitation, and suggests that declining groundwater levels due to pumping may have contributed to decreased low flows. For most sites, the majority of low flows occur in one season in the late summer to autumn, as driven by the lower precipitation and higher evaporative demand in this season, but this is complicated in many regions because of the presence of a secondary low flow season in the winter for sites in the extreme northeast and in the spring for sites in Florida. Trends in low flow timing are generally undetectable, although abrupt step changes appear to be associated with regulation.

Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

PubMed Central

Steiber, Nadia

2015-01-01

This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

Association between yogurt consumption, dietary patterns, and cardio-metabolic risk factors.

PubMed

Cormier, Hubert; Thifault, Élisabeth; Garneau, Véronique; Tremblay, Angelo; Drapeau, Vicky; Pérusse, Louis; Vohl, Marie-Claude

2016-03-01

To examine whether yogurt consumption is associated with a healthier dietary pattern and with a better cardio-metabolic risk profile among healthy individuals classified on the basis of their body mass index (BMI). A 91-item food frequency questionnaire, including data on yogurt consumption, was administered to 664 subjects from the INFOGENE study. After principal component analysis, two factors were retained, thus classified as the Prudent and Western dietary patterns. Yogurt was a significant contributor to the Prudent dietary pattern. Moreover, yogurt consumption was associated with lower body weight, waist-to-hip ratio, and waist circumference and tended to be associated with a lower BMI. Consumers had lower levels of fasting total cholesterol and insulin. Consumers of yogurt had a positive Prudent dietary pattern mean score, while the opposite trend was observed in non-consumers of yogurt. Overweight/obese individuals who were consumers of yogurts exhibited a more favorable cardio-metabolic profile characterized by lower plasma triglyceride and insulin levels than non-consumers within the same range of BMI. There was no difference in total yogurt consumption between normal-weight individuals and overweight/obese individuals. However, normal-weight subjects had more daily servings of high-fat yogurt and less daily servings of fat-free yogurt compared to overweight/obese individuals. Being a significant contributor to the Prudent dietary pattern, yogurt consumption may be associated with healthy eating. Also, yogurt consumption may be associated with lower anthropometric indicators and a more beneficial cardio-metabolic risk profile in overweight/obese individuals.

Trends in Streamflow and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Concentrations and Loads in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes River Basins, 1975-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, David L.; Robertson, Dale M.; Hall, David W.; Saad, David A.

2009-01-01

Many actions have been taken to reduce nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and the amount of nutrients and sediment transported in streams as a result of the Clean Water Act and subsequent regulations. This report assesses how nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in selected streams have changed during recent years to determine if these actions have been successful. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in concentrations and trends in loads from 1993 to 2004 were computed for total nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total suspended material (total suspended solids or suspended sediment), and total suspended sediment for 49 sites in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes Basins. Changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended-material loads were examined from 1975 to 2003 at six sites to provide a longer term context for the data examined from 1993 to 2004. Flow-adjusted trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 19 of 24 sites showed tendency toward increasing concentrations, and overall trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 16 of the 24 sites showed a general tendency toward increasing concentrations. The trends in these flow-adjusted total nitrogen concentrations are related to the changes in fertilizer nitrogen applications. Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations from 1993 to 2004 showed a widespread tendency toward decreasing concentrations. The widespread, downward trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations indicate that some of the ammonia reduction goals of the Clean Water Act are being met. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in total organic plus ammonia nitrogen concentrations from 1993 to 2004 did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations from 1993 to 2004 also did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations were upward at 24 of 40 sites. Overall trends in total phosphorus concentrations were mixed and showed no spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved phosphorus concentrations were consistently downward at all of the sites in the eastern part of the basins studied. The reduction in phosphorus fertilizer use and manure production east of the Mississippi River could explain most of the observed trends in dissolved phosphorus. Flow-adjusted trends in total suspended-material concentrations showed distinct spatial patterns of increasing tendencies throughout the western part of the basins studied and in Illinois and decreasing concentrations throughout most of Wisconsin, Iowa, and in the eastern part of the basins studied. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus were strongly related to the flow-adjusted trends in suspended materials. The trends in the flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations from 1993 to 2004 resembled those for suspended materials. The long-term, nonmonotonic trends in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-material loads for 1975 to 2003 were described by local regression, LOESS, smoothing for six sites. The statistical significance of those trends cannot be determined; however, the long-term changes found for annual streamflow and load data indicate that the monotonic trends from 1993 to 2004 should not be extrapolated backward in time.

Raman intensity and vibrational modes of armchair CNTs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hur, Jaewoong; Stuart, Steven J.

2017-07-01

Raman intensity changes and frequency patterns have been studied using the various armchair (n, n) to understand the variations of bond polarizability, in regard to changing diameters, lengths, and the number of atoms in the (n, n). The Raman intensity trends of the (n, n) are validated by those of Cn isomers. For frequency trends, similar frequency patterns and frequency inward shifts for the (n, n) are characterized. Also, VDOS trends of the (n, n) expressing Raman modes are interpreted. The decomposition of vibrational modes in the (n, n) into radial, longitudinal, and tangential mode is beneficially used to recognize the distinct characteristics of vibrational modes.

Patterns and predictors of antimicrobial resistance among Staphylococcus spp. from canine clinical cases presented at a veterinary academic hospital in South Africa.

PubMed

Qekwana, Daniel N; Oguttu, James W; Sithole, Fortune; Odoi, Agricola

2017-04-28

Antimicrobial resistance in staphylococci, often associated with treatment failure, is increasingly reported in veterinary medicine. The aim of this study was to investigate patterns and predictors of antimicrobial resistance among Staphylococcus spp. isolates from canine samples submitted to the bacteriology laboratory at the University of Pretoria academic veterinary hospital between 2007 and 2012. Retrospective data of 334 Staphylococcus isolates were used to calculate the proportion of samples resistant to 15 antimicrobial agents. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to investigate temporal trends and logistic regression models were used to investigate predictors of antimicrobial resistance in Staphylococcus aureus and Staphylococcus pseudintermedius. Results show that 98.2% (55/56) of the S. aureus isolates were resistant to at least one drug while 42.9% were multidrug resistant. Seventy-seven percent (214/278) of the S. pseudintermedius isolates were resistant to at least one drug and 25.9% (72/278) were multidrug resistant. Resistance to lincospectin was more common among S. aureus (64.3%) than S. pseudintermedius (38.9%). Similarly, resistance to clindamycin was higher in S. aureus (51.8%) than S. pseudintermedius (31.7%) isolates. There was a significant (p = 0.005) increase in S. aureus resistance to enrofloxacin over the study period. Similarly, S. pseudintermedius exhibited significant increasing temporal trend in resistance to trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole (p = 0.004), clindamycin (p = 0.022) and orbifloxacin (p = 0.042). However, there was a significant decreasing temporal trend in the proportion of isolates resistant to doxycycline (p = 0.041), tylosin (p = 0.008), kanamycin (p = 0.017) and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (p = 0.032). High levels of multidrug resistance and the increasing levels of resistance to sulphonamides, lincosamides and fluoroquinolones among Staphylococcus spp. isolates in this study are concerning. Future studies will need to investigate local drivers of antimicrobial resistance to better guide control efforts to address the problem.

Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.

2018-05-01

Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Antibacterial resistance patterns of pediatric community-acquired urinary infection: Overview.

PubMed

Konca, Capan; Tekin, Mehmet; Uckardes, Fatih; Akgun, Sadik; Almis, Habip; Bucak, Ibrahim Hakan; Genc, Yeliz; Turgut, Mehmet

2017-03-01

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is common in children. The aim of this study was therefor to construct a guide for the empirical antibiotic treatment of community-acquired UTI by investigating the etiology and antimicrobial resistance patterns of uropathogens and analyzing the epidemiological and clinical patient characteristics. A total of 158 children with positive urine culture were included in the study. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed with Vitek 2 Compact for 28 commonly used antimicrobials. Mean age was 3.36 ± 3.38 years (range, 45 days-15 years). Escherichia coli (60.1%), and Klebsiella spp. (16.5%) were the most common uropathogens. For all Gram-negative isolates, a high level of resistance was found against ampicillin/sulbactam (60.1%), trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (44.2%), cefazolin (36.2%), cefuroxime sodium (33.5%), and amoxicillin/clavulanate (31.5%). A low level of resistance was noted against cefepime (8.7%), ertapenem (4.6%), norfloxacin (1.3%), and meropenem (0.7%). There was no resistance against amikacin. There is high antibiotic resistance in children with UTI. The patterns of uropathogen antimicrobial resistance vary in susceptibility to antimicrobials depending on region and time. Thus, the trends of antibiotic susceptibility patterns should be analyzed periodically to select the appropriate regimen for UTI treatment. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Russia and Germany from 1980 to 2007 - are there migration effects?

PubMed

Deckert, Andreas; Winkler, Volker; Paltiel, Ari; Razum, Oliver; Becher, Heiko

2010-08-17

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the industrialized world. Large variations in CVD mortality between countries and also between population subgroups within countries have been observed. Previous studies showed significantly lower risks in German repatriates and Jews emigrating from Russia than in the general Russian population. We examined to what degree the migration of large subgroups influenced national CVD mortality rates. We used WHO data to map the CVD mortality distribution in Europe in 2005. Supplemented by data of the Statistisches Bundesamt, the mortality trends in three major CVD groups between 1980 and 2007 in Russia and Germany are displayed, as well as demographic information. The effects of migration on demography were estimated and percentage changes in CVD mortality trends were calculated under the assumption that migration had not occurred. Cardiovascular disease mortality patterns within Europe showed a strong west-east gradient with ratios up to sixfold. In Germany, the CVD mortality levels were low and steadily decreasing, whereas in Russia they fluctuated at high levels with substantial differences between the sexes and strong correlations with political changes and health campaigns. The trends in both Russia and Germany were affected by the migration that occurred in both countries over recent decades. However, our restricted focus in only adjusting for the migration of German repatriates and Jews had moderate effects on the national CVD mortality statistics in Germany (+1.0%) and Russia (-0.6%). The effects on CVD mortality rates due to migration in Germany and Russia were smaller than those due to secular economical changes. However, migration should still be considered as a factor influencing national mortality trends.

The impact of urbanization on wind speed and surface aerodynamic characteristics in Beijing during 1991-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Junkai; Gao, Zhiqiu; Wang, Linlin; Li, Yubin; Gao, Chloe Y.

2018-06-01

Urbanization has a significant influence on climate and meteorological conditions through altering surface aerodynamic characteristics. Based on observational data collected at 15 levels on a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing during 1991-2011, changes in wind speed, vertical profile, aerodynamic roughness length (z0), and zero-plane displacement height (zd) were analyzed. Decreasing trends were observed predominantly during this period, especially for levels between 65 and 140 m where the largest decreasing rates often occur. The annual and seasonal (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) mean wind speeds at 15 levels all present decreasing trends with average rates of 0.029, 0.024, 0.023, 0.040, and 0.019 m s-1 a-1, respectively. The decreases in strong wind categories contribute most to the reduction of mean wind speed. Furthermore, in 2005-2011, the diurnal maximum wind speeds at lower levels tend to appear earlier as compared to those in 1991-1997, while the patterns of diurnal cycle between different levels become more similar in these periods. Besides, the phenomena of "kink" in wind profiles are visible in various atmospheric stabilities, and the average height of a kink has increased from about 40 m to nearly 80 m associated with urbanization during 1991-2011. In addition, the results of z0 and zd calculated using the wind profile method vary with wind directions due to surface heterogeneity and that larger values often occur along with southerly winds. Both z0 and zd show increasing trends in different sectors during 1991-2011, and the annual mean z0 and zd have increased from less than 1 m to greater than 2 m, and from less than 10 m to greater than 20 m, respectively.

Patterns of beverage use across the lifecycle

PubMed Central

Popkin, Barry M.

2010-01-01

POPKIN, BM. Patterns of beverage use across the lifecycle. PHYSIOL BEHAV xxxx 000-000, 2009. — Total beverage intake patterns have changed greatly over the past half century. The present research was conducted to evaluate historic and current patterns of beverage consumption of adults and children in the U.S. Data were drawn from food balance surveys along with two-day beverage intake averages and were weighted to be nationally representative. A marked slow continuous shift downward in total milk intake with a shift toward an increased proportion of reduced fat milk was determined. The biggest shifts in beverage consumption among children aged 2 to 18 were an increase in sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) (from 87 to 154 kcal/d), a smaller increase in juices (+21kcal/d), and a decrease in milk consumption (-91 kcal/d). Data among adults aged 19 and older indicated that SSB intake has more than doubled. Water intake was highly variable, with a marked increase in bottled water intake but no clear trend in total water intake. Overall trends by age were presented and indicated that age-related beverage intake, both in ounces and kcals/day, decreased sharply for adults aged 60 and older. Kcal/d values ranged from a low of 283 for those over age 60 to a peak of 533 for those aged 19 to39 to 367 for 2 to 6 year olds. The consumer shift toward increased levels of SSBs and alcohol, limited amounts of reduced fat milk along with a continued consumption of whole milk, and increased juice intake represent issues to address from a public health perspective. PMID:20045423

Long-term trends in field level irrigation water demand in Mahanadi delta districts - a hydrological modeling approach for coping with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju Pokkuluri, Venkat; Rao, Diwakar Parsi Guru; Hazra, Sugata; Srikant Kulkarni, Sunil

2017-04-01

India uses its 85 percent of available water resources for irrigation making it the country with largest net irrigated area in the world. With one of the largest delta plains, sustaining the needs of irrigation supplies is critical for food security and coping with challenges of climate change. The extensive development of upstream river basins/catchments is posing serious challenge and constrains to the water availability to delta regions, which depend on the controlled/regulated flows from the upstream catchments. The irrigation water demands vary due to changes in agricultural practices, cropping pattern and changing climate conditions. Estimation of realistic irrigation water demand and its trend over time is critical for meeting the supplementary water needs of productive agricultural lands in delta plains and there by coping the challenges of extensive upstream river basin development and climate change. The present study carried out in delta districts of Mahanadi river in Odisha State of India, wherein the long-term trends in field level irrigation water requirements were estimated, both on spatial & temporal scales, using hydrological modeling framework. This study attempts to estimate field level irrigation water requirements through simulation of soil water balance during the crop growing season through process based hydrological modeling framework. The soil water balance computations were carried out using FAO-56 framework, by modifying the crop coefficient (Kc) proportional to the water stress coefficient (Ks), which is a function of root zone depletion of water. Daily meteorological data, spatial cropping pattern, terrain are incorporated in the soil water balance simulation in the model. The irrigation water demand is derived considering the exclusion of soil water stress for each model time step. The field level irrigation water requirement at 8 day interval had been estimated for the each Rabi season (post-monsoon) spanning over 1986 to 2015. The results indicate that irrigation water requirements show spatial and temporal changes and tend to deviate from notional/envisaged demands. Validation of estimated irrigation demand is attempted through correlation of gap in supply and demand with the trends in crop water stress and crop production during the study years. Crop water Stress Index (CWSI), which is the ratio of deficit of actual evapotranspiration (AET) from the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and is derived from MODIS Evapotranspiration data. Agricultural production data is used from State/Central government statistics. The attempted methodology provides opportunities to estimate future irrigation water demand under projected climate change scenarios and for planning for basin level water resources development sustaining the delta agriculture, which are projected to be more vulnerable to climate change.

[Clinico-psychological features of patients with favorable outcomes of slowly-progressive juvenile schizophrenia].

PubMed

Tsutsul'kovskaia, M Ia; Bil'zho, A G; Kritskaia, V P; Meleshko, T K

1986-01-01

A follow-up study of patients with favourable outcomes of juvenile slowly progressing schizophrenia at the level of clinical cure (n = 84) revealed a number of clinical characteristics in the pattern of personality changes which correlated with a high level of the patients' social and occupational adaptation. The authors also determined external factors contributing to the achievement and stabilization of the "clinical cure" status. An experimental and psychological examination of these patients revealed finer mechanisms contributing to their social adaptation. These are high motivation of activities, compliance with social norms, a high level of voluntary regulation of activity and self-regulation, as well as the ability to overcome autistic trends in situations of interpersonal activities and cooperation.

Leaf Caloric Value from Tropical to Cold-Temperate Forests: Latitudinal Patterns and Linkage to Productivity

PubMed Central

Song, Guangyan; Hou, Jihua; Li, Ying; Zhang, Jiahui; He, Nianpeng

2016-01-01

Leaf caloric value (LCV) reflects the capacity of a leaf to fix and accumulate solar energy through photosynthesis. We systematically investigated the LCV of 745 plant species in 9 forests, representing a range of tropical to cold-temperate forests along the 4700-km North-South Transect of Eastern China. The goals were to explore the latitudinal patterns of LCV at the levels of species, plant functional group, and community and to establish the relationship between LCV and gross primary productivity (GPP). Our results showed that LCV for all species ranged from 12.85 to 22.15 KJ g–1 with an average of 18.46 KJ g–1. Plant functional groups had a significant influence on LCV, with trees > shrubs > herbs, conifers > broadleaved trees, and evergreens > deciduous trees. The different values of LCV represented the long-term evolution and adaptation of plant species to different environments. Unexpectedly, no apparent latitudinal trends of LCV at community level were observed, although LCV at the species level clearly decreased with increasing latitude. Use efficiency of LCV (CUE, gC KJ–1), defined as the ratio of GPP to total LCV at the community level, varied quadratic with latitude and was lower in the middle latitudes. Climate (temperature and precipitation) may explain 52.9% of the variation in spatial patterns of CUE, which was positively correlated with aridity. Our findings are the first large-scale report of the latitudinal patterns of LCV in forests at the species, plant functional group, and community levels and provide new insights into the relationship between LCV and ecosystem functions in forest communities. PMID:27341474

Geographical distribution and time trends of polychlorinated biphenyls in raft mussel from Galician coast (1998-2013).

PubMed

Carro, Nieves; García, Isabel; Ignacio, María; Mouteira, Ana

2015-12-15

PCBs were analyzed in raft mussels cultured in several polygons from Galician Rías (Rías of Ares-Betanzos, Muros-Noia, Arousa, Pontevedra and Vigo) during the period 1998-2013. The main aim of this work is study the quality of culture marine environment in relation to PCBs compounds. We report the results of a monitoring. The mean levels of ΣPCBs (ten congeners) ranged from 7.41 to 59.50ngg(-1)dw. The isomer concentrations in the Mytilus galloprovincialis cultured in raft were in the order hexachlorobiphenyls>pentachlorobiphenyls>tetrachlorbiphenyls>trichlorobiphenyls. Some biological parameters of mussel were also investigated (shell length, lipid content and condition index) in order to know their influence on ability of PCBs accumulation. ANOVA analysis confirms that levels of most of congeners had a significant relation (p<0.05) with shell length. The geographical patterns and temporal variations of PCBs were also investigated. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed differences between geographic areas (Rías) in the distribution of PCBs levels. Samples coming from Rías of Vigo and Ares-Betanzos presented the highest levels of PCBs and samples from Rías of Arousa and Muros-Noia had the lowest levels of these compounds. Time trends (linear regressions) showed a decline of levels of PCB congeners along the period 1998-2013. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The association of major patterns of physical activity, sedentary behavior and sleep with health-related quality of life: a cohort study.

PubMed

Guallar-Castillón, Pilar; Bayán-Bravo, Ana; León-Muñoz, Luz M; Balboa-Castillo, Teresa; López-García, Esther; Gutierrez-Fisac, Juan Luis; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

2014-10-01

To examine the prospective association of patterns of physical activity, sedentary behavior and sleep with health-related quality of life (HRQL) in the general population of Spain. A cohort study with 4271 individuals aged ≥ 18 years was recruited in 2008-2010 and followed-up prospectively through 2012. Activity patterns were derived from factor analysis. HRQL was assessed with the SF-12 questionnaire, and suboptimal HRQL was defined as a score below the sex-specific sample median. Three main activity patterns were identified. A higher adherence to the pattern named "vigorous activity-seated at the computer" was inversely associated with a suboptimal score in the physical-composite summary (PCS) of the SF-12 (multivariate adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for the highest vs. the lowest quartile 0.71; 95% confidence interval [IC] 0.55-0.90; p-trend=0.003). The "light activity-seated for reading" pattern was inversely associated with a suboptimal score in the mental-composite summary (aOR=0.73; 95% CI=0.61-0.89; p-trend=0.002). However, a higher adherence to the "seated for watching TV-daytime sleeping" pattern was directly associated with suboptimal PCS (aOR=1.35; 95% CI=1.10-1.66; p-trend=0.008). Patterns including any physical activity were associated with better physical or mental HRQL. However, a pattern defined by sedentary behavior with diurnal sleep showed worse HRQL and should be a priority target of preventive interventions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cross country skiing trend data: planning for participant needs

Treesearch

Floyd L. Newby; William D. Lilley

1980-01-01

As societal and economic pressures mold and alter patterns of human behavior, the outdoor recreation planner gazes into the milange of "trend data" developed to simplify his planning efforts and ........

Changes in dialysis treatment modalities during institution of flat rate reimbursement and quality assurance programs.

PubMed

Kleophas, Werner; Karaboyas, Angelo; Li, Yun; Bommer, Juergen; Reichel, Helmut; Walter, Andreas; Icks, Andrea; Rump, Lars C; Pisoni, Ronald L; Robinson, Bruce M; Port, Friedrich K

2013-09-01

Dialysis procedure rates in Germany were changed in 2002 from per-session to weekly flat rate payments, and quality assurance was introduced in 2009 with defined treatment targets for spKt/V, dialysis frequency, treatment time, and hemoglobin. In order to understand trends in treatment parameters before and after the introduction of these changes, we analyzed data from 407 to 618 prevalent patients each year (hemodialysis over 90 days) in 14-21 centers in cross-sections of the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (phases 1-4, 1998-2011). Descriptive statistics were used to report differences over time in the four quality assurance parameters along with erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA) and intravenous iron doses. Time trends were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusted for patient demographics and comorbidities. The proportion of patients with short treatment times (less than 4 h) and low spKt/V (below 1.2) improved throughout the study and was lowest after implementation of quality assurance. Hemoglobin levels have increased since 1998 and remained consistent since 2005, with only 8-10% of patients below 10 g/dl. About 90% of patients were prescribed ESAs, with the dose declining since peaking in 2006. Intravenous iron use was highest in 2011. Hence, trends to improve quality metrics for hemodialysis have been established in Germany even after introduction of flat rate reimbursement. Thus, analysis of facility practice patterns is needed to maintain quality of care in a cost-containment environment.

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration along the North American east coast as influenced by multiple environmental changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qichun; Tian, Hanqin; Li, Xia

The North American east coast has experienced significant land-use and climate changes since the beginning of the 20th century. In this study, using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model 2.0 driven by time-series input data of land use, climate and atmospheric CO 2, we examined how these driving forces have affected the spatiotemporal trends and variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in this region during 1901–2008. Annual ET in the North American east coast during this period was 648.3 ± 38.6 mm/year and demonstrated an increasing trend. Factorial model simulations indicated that climate variability explained 76% of the inter-annual ET variability. Although land-usemore » change only explained 16% of the ET temporal variability, afforestation induced the upward trend of ET and increased annual ET by 12.8 mm/year. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 reduced annual ET by 0.84 mm, and its potential impacts under future atmospheric CO 2 levels could be much larger than estimates for the historical 1901–2008 period. Climate change determined the spatial pattern of ET changes across the entire study area, whereas land-use changes dramatically affected ET in watersheds with significant land conversions. In spite of the multiple benefits from afforestation, its impacts on water resources should be considered in future land-use policy making. As a result, elevated ET may also affect fresh water availability for the increasing social and economic water demands.« less

Spatiotemporal patterns of evapotranspiration along the North American east coast as influenced by multiple environmental changes

DOE PAGES

Yang, Qichun; Tian, Hanqin; Li, Xia; ...

2014-08-08

The North American east coast has experienced significant land-use and climate changes since the beginning of the 20th century. In this study, using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model 2.0 driven by time-series input data of land use, climate and atmospheric CO 2, we examined how these driving forces have affected the spatiotemporal trends and variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in this region during 1901–2008. Annual ET in the North American east coast during this period was 648.3 ± 38.6 mm/year and demonstrated an increasing trend. Factorial model simulations indicated that climate variability explained 76% of the inter-annual ET variability. Although land-usemore » change only explained 16% of the ET temporal variability, afforestation induced the upward trend of ET and increased annual ET by 12.8 mm/year. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 reduced annual ET by 0.84 mm, and its potential impacts under future atmospheric CO 2 levels could be much larger than estimates for the historical 1901–2008 period. Climate change determined the spatial pattern of ET changes across the entire study area, whereas land-use changes dramatically affected ET in watersheds with significant land conversions. In spite of the multiple benefits from afforestation, its impacts on water resources should be considered in future land-use policy making. As a result, elevated ET may also affect fresh water availability for the increasing social and economic water demands.« less

Improving Photometry and Stellar Signal Preservation with Pixel-Level Systematic Error Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolodzijczak, Jeffrey J.; Smith, Jeffrey C.; Jenkins, Jon M.

2013-01-01

The Kepler Mission has demonstrated that excellent stellar photometric performance can be achieved using apertures constructed from optimally selected CCD pixels. The clever methods used to correct for systematic errors, while very successful, still have some limitations in their ability to extract long-term trends in stellar flux. They also leave poorly correlated bias sources, such as drifting moiré pattern, uncorrected. We will illustrate several approaches where applying systematic error correction algorithms to the pixel time series, rather than the co-added raw flux time series, provide significant advantages. Examples include, spatially localized determination of time varying moiré pattern biases, greater sensitivity to radiation-induced pixel sensitivity drops (SPSDs), improved precision of co-trending basis vectors (CBV), and a means of distinguishing the stellar variability from co-trending terms even when they are correlated. For the last item, the approach enables physical interpretation of appropriately scaled coefficients derived in the fit of pixel time series to the CBV as linear combinations of various spatial derivatives of the pixel response function (PRF). We demonstrate that the residuals of a fit of soderived pixel coefficients to various PRF-related components can be deterministically interpreted in terms of physically meaningful quantities, such as the component of the stellar flux time series which is correlated with the CBV, as well as, relative pixel gain, proper motion and parallax. The approach also enables us to parameterize and assess the limiting factors in the uncertainties in these quantities.

Effect of chilling and cryopreservation on expression of Pax genes in zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos and blastomeres.

PubMed

Lin, C; Spikings, E; Zhang, T; Rawson, D M

2009-08-01

Cryopreservation is now common practice in the fields of aquaculture, conservation and biomedicine. However, there is a lack of information on the effect of chilling and cryopreservation at the molecular level. In the present study, we used real-time RT-PCR analysis to determine the effect of chilling and cryopreservation on expression of Pax2a, Pax2b, Pax5 and Pax8 which constitute one subgroup of the Pax gene family. As intact embryos of zebrafish have not yet been successfully cryopreserved, we have used two alternatives: chilling of intact embryos and cryopreservation of isolated blastomeres. Cryopreservation was found to affect the normal pattern of gene expression in zebrafish embryonic blastomeres. The trends, profile changes, in expression of Pax2a and Pax5 occurred to a lesser extent in frozen-thawed blastomeres than in fresh blastomeres whilst the opposite was true for Pax8. The trends in expression of Pax2b were delayed in frozen-thawed blastomeres compared to fresh blastomeres. Cryopreservation can therefore disrupt normal gene expression patterns in zebrafish embryonic blastomeres which could have a detrimental effect on embryo development.

The energy divide: Integrating energy transitions, regional inequalities and poverty trends in the European Union

PubMed Central

Bouzarovski, Stefan; Tirado Herrero, Sergio

2016-01-01

Energy poverty can be understood as the inability of a household to secure a socially and materially necessitated level of energy services in the home. While the condition is widespread across Europe, its spatial and social distribution is highly uneven. In this paper, the existence of a geographical energy poverty divide in the European Union (EU) provides a starting point for conceptualizing and exploring the relationship between energy transitions – commonly described as wide-ranging processes of socio-technical change – and existing patterns of regional economic inequality. We have undertaken a comprehensive analysis of spatial and temporal trends in the national-scale patterns of energy poverty, as well as gas and electricity prices. The results of our work indicate that the classic economic development distinction between the core and periphery also holds true in the case of energy poverty, as the incidence of this phenomenon is significantly higher in Southern and Eastern European EU Member States. The paper thus aims to provide the building blocks for a novel theoretical integration of questions of path-dependency, uneven development and material deprivation in existing interpretations of energy transitions. PMID:28690374

Tobacco, Alcohol and Marijuana Use among First Year U.S. College Students: A time series analysis

PubMed Central

Dierker, Lisa; Stolar, Marilyn; Richardson, Elizabeth; Tiffany, Stephen; Flay, Brian; Collins, Linda; Nichter, Mimi; Nichter, Mark; Bailey, Steffani; Clayton, Richard

2009-01-01

The present study sought to evaluate the day-to-day patterns of tobacco, alcohol and marijuana use among first year college students in the U.S. Using 210 days of weekly time-line follow-back diary data collected in 2002-2003, the authors examined within-person patterns of use. The sample was 48% female and 90% Caucasian. Sixty eight percent of the participants were permanent residents of Indiana. Univariate time series analysis was employed to evaluate behavioral trends for each substance across the academic year and to determine the predictive value of day-to-day substance use. Some of the most common trends included higher levels of substance use at the beginning and/or end of the academic year. Use on any given day could be predicted best from the amount of corresponding substance use one day prior. Conclusions While universal intervention might best be focused in the earliest weeks on campus and at the end of the year when substance use is at its highest, the diversity of substance use trajectories suggests the need for more targeted approaches to intervention. Study limitations are noted. PMID:18393083

Lower Risk of Cancer in the Areas Inhabited by the German Minority in the Region of Opole, Poland.

PubMed

Chawińska, Ewa; Tukiendorf, Andrzej; Miszczyk, Leszek

2015-01-01

The lower risk of cancer in the areas inhabited by the German minority in the region of Opole, Poland, at the turn of the 1980's and 1990's has been already reported. A reanalysis of the present-day data was conducted. All the cancer cases (at all sites combined) registered within the years 2008-2012 with data collected by the Regional Cancer Registry in Opole were analyzed in this study. To estimate the risk of cancer in different spatial contexts, such as trends, clusters, and levels, modern geostatistical tools were applied. A statistically significant reduction of the cancer risk was reported in administrative units with ≥ 10% of the German minority. Average decreases in relative risk of 13% in men and 16% in women were estimated. The geographical patterns of the estimates are illustrated. The observed differences in the risk of cancer between the ethnic groups (Germans and repatriates) confirm a historical trend of the disease in the region of Opole, Poland. Some genetic, nutritional, or cultural aspects together with economic issues may play a role in the specified spatial disease patterns. © 2015 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

PubMed Central

Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; McGuire, A. David

2018-01-01

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10–100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km2) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30 m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999–2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling. PMID:29633984

Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; McGuire, A. David

2018-01-01

Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10–100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km2) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30 m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999–2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.

Global patterns of predator diversity in the open oceans.

PubMed

Worm, Boris; Sandow, Marcel; Oschlies, Andreas; Lotze, Heike K; Myers, Ransom A

2005-08-26

The open oceans comprise most of the biosphere, yet patterns and trends of species diversity there are enigmatic. Here, we derive worldwide patterns of tuna and billfish diversity over the past 50 years, revealing distinct subtropical "hotspots" that appeared to hold generally for other predators and zooplankton. Diversity was positively correlated with thermal fronts and dissolved oxygen and a nonlinear function of temperature (approximately 25 degrees C optimum). Diversity declined between 10 and 50% in all oceans, a trend that coincided with increased fishing pressure, superimposed on strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation-driven variability across the Pacific. We conclude that predator diversity shows a predictable yet eroding pattern signaling ecosystem-wide changes linked to climate and fishing.

Systematic vertical and lateral changes in quality and time resolution of the macrofossil record: insights from Holocene transgressive deposits, Po coastal plain, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzarone, Michele; Scarponi, Daniele; Kusnerik, Kristopher; Amorosi, Alessandro; Bohacs, Kevin M.; Drexler, Tina M.; Kowalewski, Michał

2017-04-01

In siliciclastic marine settings, skeletal concentrations are a characteristic feature of transgressive intervals that provide insights into paleobiology and sequence stratigraphy. To investigate taphonomic signatures of transgressive intervals, we analyzed three cores from a Holocene depositional profile of the Po coastal plain, in northern Italy. Coupled multivariate taphonomic and bathymetric trends delineate spatial and temporal gradients in sediment starvation/bypassing, suggesting that quality and resolution of the fossil record vary predictably along the studied depositional profile. Moreover, joint consideration of taphonomic, bathymetric, and fossil density trends across the study area reveals distinctive signatures that are useful in characterizing facies associations and recognizing surfaces and intervals of sequence stratigraphic significance. Within the southern Po plain succession, taphonomic degradation of macroskeletal remains increases from proximal—nearshore to distal—offshore locations. This trend is discernible for both biologically-driven (bioerosion) and chemically/physically-driven (e.g., dissolution, abrasion) shell alterations. Compared to the up-dip (most proximal) core, the down-dip core is distinguished by shell-rich lithosomes affected by ecological condensation (co-occurrence of environmentally non-overlapping taxa) and by higher taphonomic alteration. The onshore-offshore taphonomic trend likely reflects variation in sediment-supply along the depositional profile of the Holocene Northern Adriatic shelf, with surface/near-surface residence-time of macroskeletal remains increasing down dip due to lower accumulation rates. These results indicate that, during transgressive phases, changes in sea-level (base level) are likely to produce down-dip taphonomic gradients across shelves, where the quality and resolution of the fossil record both deteriorate distally. The amino acid radiometrically calibrated dates on bivalves and the chronostratigraphic framework for this profile suggest that the high levels of taphonomic degradation observed distally developed over millennial time scales ( 8ky). The patterns documented here may be characteristic of siliciclastic-dominated depositional systems that experience high-frequency, base-level fluctuations.

New Jersey's Segregated Schools: Trends and Paths Forward

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orfield, Gary; Ee, Jongyeon; Coughlan, Ryan

2017-01-01

This report updates earlier research published by the Civil Rights Project in 2013. That report detailed troubling racial and economic segregation trends and patterns from 1989-2010. The latest report includes new data from 2010-2015. The research updates public school enrollment trends and details segregation in the state's schools by race and…

Trend analysis and forecast of precipitation, reference evapotranspiration and rainfall deficit in the Blackland Prairie of eastern Mississippi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Trend analysis and estimation of monthly and annual precipitation, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and rainfall deficit are essential for water resources management and cropping system design. Rainfall, ETo, and water deficit patterns and trends in eastern Mississippi USA for a 120-year period (1...

Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use by Very Young, Privately Insured Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olfson, Mark; Crystal, Stephen; Huang, Cecilia; Gerhard, Tobias

2010-01-01

Objective: This study describes recent trends and patterns in antipsychotic treatment of privately insured children aged 2 through 5 years. Method: A trend analysis is presented of antipsychotic medication use (1999-2001 versus 2007) stratified by patient characteristics. Data are analyzed from a large administrative database of privately insured…

Day Service Provision for People with Intellectual Disabilities: A Case Study Mapping 15-Year Trends in Ireland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Padraic; McGilloway, Sinead; Barry, Sarah

2017-01-01

Background: Day services for people with intellectual disabilities are experiencing a global paradigm shift towards innovative person-centred models of care. This study maps changing trends in day service utilization to highlight how policy, emergent patterns and demographic trends influence service delivery. Methods: National intellectual…

Precipitation Impacts of a Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.; Frei, A.; Gong, G.; Ghatak, D.; Robinson, D. A.; Kindig, D.

2009-12-01

Since the beginning of the modern satellite record in October 1978, the extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all months, with the strongest downward trend at the end of the melt season in September. Recently the September trends have accelerated. Through 2001, the extent of September sea ice was decreasing at a rate of -7 per cent per decade. By 2006, the rate of decrease had risen to -8.9 per cent per decade. In September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level recorded, 23 per cent below the previous record set in 2005, boosting the downward trend to -10.7 per cent per decade. Ice extent in September 2008 was the second lowest in the satellite record. Including 2008, the trend in September sea ice extent stands at -11.8 percent per decade. Compared to the 1970s, September ice extent has retreated by 40 per cent. Summer 2009 looks to repeat the anomalously low ice conditions that characterized the last couple of years. Scientists have long expected that a shrinking Arctic sea ice cover will lead to strong warming of the overlying atmosphere, and as a result, affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Recent results show clear evidence of Arctic warming linked to declining ice extent, yet observational evidence for responses of atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns is just beginning to emerge. Rising air temperatures should lead to an increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, with the potential to impact autumn precipitation. Although climate models predict a hemispheric wide decrease in snow cover as atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase, increased precipitation, particular in autumn and winter may result as the Arctic transitions towards a seasonally ice free state. In this study we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a cyclone tracking algorithm to investigate the influence of recent extreme ice loss years on precipitation patterns in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. Results show enhanced cyclone associated precipitation in autumn over Siberia for anomalously low ice years compared with anomalously high ice years along with a strengthening of the North Atlantic Storm track.

Spatial and temporal patterns in concentrations of perfluorinated compounds in bald eagle nestlings in the Upper Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Route, William T.; Russell, Robin E.; Lindstrom, Andrew B.; Strynor, Mark J.; Key, Rebecca L.

2014-01-01

Perfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) are of concern due to their widespread use, persistence in the environment, tendency to accumulate in animal tissues, and growing evidence of toxicity. Between 2006 and 2011 we collected blood plasma from 261 bald eagle nestlings in six study areas from the upper Midwestern United States. Samples were assessed for levels of 16 different PFCs. We used regression analysis in a Bayesian framework to evaluate spatial and temporal trends for these analytes. We found levels as high as 7370 ng/mL for the sum of all 16 PFCs (∑PFCs). Perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorodecanesulfonate (PFDS) were the most abundant analytes, making up 67% and 23% of the PFC burden, respectively. Levels of ∑PFC, PFOS, and PFDS were highest in more urban and industrial areas, moderate on Lake Superior, and low on the remote upper St. Croix River watershed. We found evidence of declines in ∑PFCs and seven analytes, including PFOS, PFDS, and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA); no trend in two analytes; and increases in two analytes. We argue that PFDS, a long-chained PFC with potential for high bioaccumulation and toxicity, should be considered for future animal and human studies.

The global financial crisis and Australian general practice.

PubMed

McRae, Ian S; Paolucci, Francesco

2011-02-01

To explore the potential effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the market for general practitioner (GP) services in Australia. We estimate the impact of changes in unemployment rates on demand for GP services and the impact of lost asset values on GP retirement plans and work patterns. Combining these supply and demand effects, we estimate the potential effect of the GFC on the market for GP services under various scenarios. If deferral of retirement increases GP availability by 2%, and historic trends to reduce GP working hours are halved, at the current level of ~5.2% unemployment average fees would decline by $0.23 per GP consultation and volumes of GP services would rise by 2.53% with almost no change in average GP gross earnings over what would otherwise have occurred. With 8.5% unemployment, as initially predicted by Treasury, GP fees would increase by $0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%. The GFC is likely to increase activity in the GP market and potentially to reduce fee levels relative to the pre-GFC trends. Net effects on average GP incomes are likely to be small at current unemployment levels.

Characterization of Wind Patterns over Texas Using Self-Organizing Maps: Impact on Dallas-Fort Worth Long Term Ozone Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsakis, A.; Choi, Y.; Souri, A.; Jeon, W.; Flynn, J. H., III

2017-12-01

From the years 2000 to 2014, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) has seen a decrease in ozone exceedances due to decreased emissions of ozone precursors. In this study, a wind pattern analysis was done to gain a better understanding of the meteorological patterns that have historically contributed to ozone exceedances over the DFW area. Long-term trends in ozone and the seasonal distribution of ozone exceedances were analyzed using surface monitoring data. Using a clustering algorithm called self-organizing maps, characteristic regional wind patterns from 2000-2014 were determined. For each of the wind pattern clusters, the frequency over the last 15 years and average ozone from monitors across DFW was analyzed. Finally, model simulations were performed to determine if pollution transported out of Houston affected incoming background ozone into DFW.

Development of a Web GIS Application for Visualizing and Analyzing Community Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest Patterns

PubMed Central

Semple, Hugh; Qin, Han; Sasson, Comilla

2013-01-01

Improving survival rates at the neighborhood level is increasingly seen as a priority for reducing overall rates of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in the United States. Since wide disparities exist in OHCA rates at the neighborhood level, it is important for public health officials and residents to be able to quickly locate neighborhoods where people are at elevated risk for cardiac arrest and to target these areas for educational outreach and other mitigation strategies. This paper describes an OHCA web mapping application that was developed to provide users with interactive maps and data for them to quickly visualize and analyze the geographic pattern of cardiac arrest rates, bystander CPR rates, and survival rates at the neighborhood level in different U.S. cities. The data comes from the CARES Registry and is provided over a period spanning several years so users can visualize trends in neighborhood out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patterns. Users can also visualize areas that are statistical hot and cold spots for cardiac arrest and compare OHCA and bystander CPR rates in the hot and cold spots. Although not designed as a public participation GIS (PPGIS), this application seeks to provide a forum around which data and maps about local patterns of OHCA can be shared, analyzed and discussed with a view of empowering local communities to take action to address the high rates of OHCA in their vicinity. PMID:23923097

Streamflow trends in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Slack, J.R.

1999-01-01

Secular trends in streamflow are evaluated for 395 climate-sensitive streamgaging stations in the conterminous United States using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Trends are calculated for selected quantiles of discharge, from the 0th to the 100th percentile, to evaluate differences between low-, medium-, and high-flow regimes during the twentieth century. Two general patterns emerge; trends are most prevalent in the annual minimum (Q0) to median (Q50) flow categories and least prevalent in the annual maximum (Q100) category; and, at all but the highest quantiles, streamflow has increased across broad sections of the United States. Decreases appear only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Systematic patterns are less apparent in the Q100 flow. Hydrologically, these results indicate that the conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less extreme.

Social and Geographical Inequalities in Suicide in Japan from 1975 through 2005: A Census-Based Longitudinal Analysis

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Etsuji; Kashima, Saori; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S. V.

2013-01-01

Background Despite advances in our understanding of the countercyclical association between economic contraction and suicide, less is known about the levels of and changes in inequalities in suicide. The authors examined social and geographical inequalities in suicide in Japan from 1975 through 2005. Methods Based on quinquennial vital statistics and census data, the authors analyzed the entire population aged 25–64 years. The total number of suicides was 75,840 men and 30,487 women. For each sex, the authors estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% credible intervals (CIs) for suicide using multilevel logistic regression models with “cells” (cross-tabulated by age and occupation) at level 1, seven different years at level 2, and 47 prefectures at level 3. Prefecture-level variance was used as an estimate of geographical inequalities in suicide. Results Adjusting for age and time-trends, the lowest odds for suicide was observed among production process and related workers (the reference group) in both sexes. The highest OR for men was 2.52 (95% CI: 2.43, 2.61) among service workers, whereas the highest OR for women was 9.24 (95% CI: 7.03, 12.13) among security workers. The degree of occupational inequalities increased among men with a striking change in the pattern. Among women, we observed a steady decline in suicide risk across all occupations, except for administrative and managerial workers and transport and communication workers. After adjusting for individual age, occupation, and time-trends, prefecture-specific ORs ranged from 0.76 (Nara Prefecture) to 1.36 (Akita Prefecture) for men and from 0.79 (Kanagawa Prefecture) to 1.22 (Akita Prefecture) for women. Geographical inequalities have increased primarily among men since 1995. Conclusions The present findings demonstrate a striking temporal change in the pattern of social inequalities in suicide among men. Further, geographical inequalities in suicide have considerably increased across 47 prefectures, primarily among men, since 1995. PMID:23671679

Skylab photography applied to geologic mapping in northwestern Central America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rose, W. I., Jr.; Johnson, D. J.; Hahn, G. A.; Johns, G. W.

1975-01-01

Two photolineation maps of southwestern Guatemala and Chiapas were made from S190 photographs along a ground track from Acajutla, El Salvador to San Cristobal de las Casas, Mexico. The maps document a structural complexity spanning the presumed triple junction of the Cocos, Americas, and Caribbean plates. The Polochic fault zone, supposedly the Americas-Caribbean plate boundary, is a sharply delineated feature across western Guatemala. Westward of the Mexican border it splays into a large number of faults with NW to SW trends. The structural pattern is quite different to the north (Americas plate) and to the south (Caribbean plate) of the Polochic fault, though both areas are dominated by NW-trending lineations. Within the Central American volcanic chain, the lineation patterns support the segmented model of the Benioff Zone, by showing a concentration of transverse lineations in the predicted locations, most notably NE-trending elements near Quezaltenango, Guatemala. The structural pattern obtained from the maps are compared to patterns described on recently published maps of more southerly parts of Central America, to begin a synthesis of the structure of the convergent plate boundary.

Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry: Past and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the 20% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to 1.6 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. A principal purpose of obtaining ice sheet elevation changes from satellite altimetry has been estimation of the current ice sheet mass balance. Limited information on ice sheet elevation change and their implications about mass balance have been reported by several investigators from radar altimetry (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1&2). Analysis of ERS-1&2 data over Greenland for 7 years from 1992 to 1999 shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. Observed seasonal and interannual variations in ice surface elevation are larger than previously expected because of seasonal and interannUal variations in precipitation, melting, and firn compaction. In the accumulation zone, the variations in firn compaction are modeled as a function of temperature leaving variations in precipitation and the mass balance trend. Significant interannual variations in elevation in some locations, in particular the difference in trends from 1992 to 1995 compared to 1995 to 1999, can be explained by changes in precipitation over Greenland. Over the 7 years, trends in elevation are mostly positive at higher elevations and negative at lower elevations. In addition, trends for the winter seasons (from a trend analysis through the average winter elevations) are more positive than the corresponding trends for the summer. At lower elevations, the 7-year trends in some locations are strongly negative for summer and near zero or slightly positive for winter. These observations also demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. Beginning in January 2002, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86E latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets.

Phylogeny drives large scale patterns in Australian marine bioactivity and provides a new chemical ecology rationale for future biodiscovery.

PubMed

Evans-Illidge, Elizabeth A; Logan, Murray; Doyle, Jason; Fromont, Jane; Battershill, Christopher N; Ericson, Gavin; Wolff, Carsten W; Muirhead, Andrew; Kearns, Phillip; Abdo, David; Kininmonth, Stuart; Llewellyn, Lyndon

2013-01-01

Twenty-five years of Australian marine bioresources collecting and research by the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) has explored the breadth of latitudinally and longitudinally diverse marine habitats that comprise Australia's ocean territory. The resulting AIMS Bioresources Library and associated relational database integrate biodiversity with bioactivity data, and these resources were mined to retrospectively assess biogeographic, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in cytotoxic, antimicrobial, and central nervous system (CNS)-protective bioactivity. While the bioassays used were originally chosen to be indicative of pharmaceutically relevant bioactivity, the results have qualified ecological relevance regarding secondary metabolism. In general, metazoan phyla along the deuterostome phylogenetic pathway (eg to Chordata) and their ancestors (eg Porifera and Cnidaria) had higher percentages of bioactive samples in the assays examined. While taxonomy at the phylum level and higher-order phylogeny groupings helped account for observed trends, taxonomy to genus did not resolve the trends any further. In addition, the results did not identify any biogeographic bioactivity hotspots that correlated with biodiversity hotspots. We conclude with a hypothesis that high-level phylogeny, and therefore the metabolic machinery available to an organism, is a major determinant of bioactivity, while habitat diversity and ecological circumstance are possible drivers in the activation of this machinery and bioactive secondary metabolism. This study supports the strategy of targeting phyla from the deuterostome lineage (including ancestral phyla) from biodiverse marine habitats and ecological niches, in future biodiscovery, at least that which is focused on vertebrate (including human) health.

Genetic Variability of the Grey Wolf Canis lupus in the Caucasus in Comparison with Europe and the Middle East: Distinct or Intermediary Population?

PubMed Central

Pilot, Małgorzata; Dąbrowski, Michał J.; Hayrapetyan, Vahram; Yavruyan, Eduard G.; Kopaliani, Natia; Tsingarska, Elena; Bujalska, Barbara; Kamiński, Stanisław; Bogdanowicz, Wiesław

2014-01-01

Despite continuous historical distribution of the grey wolf (Canis lupus) throughout Eurasia, the species displays considerable morphological differentiation that resulted in delimitation of a number of subspecies. However, these morphological discontinuities are not always consistent with patterns of genetic differentiation. Here we assess genetic distinctiveness of grey wolves from the Caucasus (a region at the border between Europe and West Asia) that have been classified as a distinct subspecies C. l. cubanensis. We analysed their genetic variability based on mtDNA control region, microsatellite loci and genome-wide SNP genotypes (obtained for a subset of the samples), and found similar or higher levels of genetic diversity at all these types of loci as compared with other Eurasian populations. Although we found no evidence for a recent genetic bottleneck, genome-wide linkage disequilibrium patterns suggest a long-term demographic decline in the Caucasian population – a trend consistent with other Eurasian populations. Caucasian wolves share mtDNA haplotypes with both Eastern European and West Asian wolves, suggesting past or ongoing gene flow. Microsatellite data also suggest gene flow between the Caucasus and Eastern Europe. We found evidence for moderate admixture between the Caucasian wolves and domestic dogs, at a level comparable with other Eurasian populations. Taken together, our results show that Caucasian wolves are not genetically isolated from other Eurasian populations, share with them the same demographic trends, and are affected by similar conservation problems. PMID:24714198

Comparative antennal transcriptome of Apis cerana cerana from four developmental stages.

PubMed

Zhao, Huiting; Peng, Zhu; Du, Yali; Xu, Kai; Guo, Lina; Yang, Shuang; Ma, Weihua; Jiang, Yusuo

2018-06-20

Apis cerana cerana, an important endemic honey bee species in China, possesses valuable characteristics such as a sensitive olfactory system, good foraging ability, and strong resistance to parasitic mites. Here, we performed transcriptome sequencing of the antenna, the major chemosensory organ of the bee, using an Illumina sequencer, to identify typical differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in adult worker bees of different ages, namely, T1 (1 day); T2 (10 days); T3 (15 days); and T4 (25 days). Surprisingly, the expression levels of DEGs changed significantly between the T1 period and the other three periods. All the DEGs were classified into 26 expression profiles by trend analysis. Selected trend clusters were analyzed, and valuable information on gene expression patterns was obtained. We found that the expression levels of genes encoding cuticle proteins declined after eclosion, while those of immunity-related genes increased. In addition, genes encoding venom proteins and major royal jelly proteins were enriched at the T2 stage; small heat shock proteins showed significantly higher expression at the T3 stage; and some metabolism-related genes were more highly expressed at the T4 stage. The DEGs identified in this study may serve as a valuable resource for the characterization of expression patterns of antennal genes in A. cerana cerana. Furthermore, this study provides insights into the relationship between labor division in social bees and gene function. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Temporal trends in mercury concentrations in raptor flight feathers stored in an environmental specimen bank in Galicia (NW Spain) between 2000 and 2013.

PubMed

García-Seoane, Rita; Varela, Zulema; Carballeira, Alejo; Aboal, Jesús R; Fernández, J Ángel

2017-03-01

Temporal trends in Hg concentrations were investigated in primary flight feathers from 319 specimens of three birds of prey: P7 in the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), P6 in the common buzzard (Buteo buteo) and P5 in the tawny owl (Strix aluco). The samples were stored in a regional environmental specimen bank and belonged to specimens which died between 2000 and 2013 in Galicia (NW Spain). We would expect to see a decline in Hg concentrations across the study period, as data of atmospheric emissions show a gradual reduction of this pollutant in Europe in the last two decades. The study did not reveal any temporal pattern in Hg concentrations of feathers in any of the three species for the study period, may be due to the persistence of Hg in the environment, but showed a low level of contamination by this metal in the study area. In addition, the results show high intra-specific, as well as, inter-annual and inter-specific variability in data, mainly attributed to the level of exposure of the raptors to this pollutant and to the biomagnification process of Hg through food chains. These findings indicate that the high variability can be a limiting factor in the use of raptors for biomonitoring temporal patterns of Hg, but nevertheless, the technique provides qualitative information about the amount of Hg that reach the top of the terrestrial food chains.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the water column and sediment core of Deep Bay, South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yao-Wen; Zhang, Gan; Liu, Guo-Qing; Guo, Ling-Li; Li, Xiang-Dong; Wai, Onyx

2009-06-01

The levels of 15 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in seawater, suspended particulate matter (SPM), surface sediment and core sediment samples of Deep Bay, South China. The average concentrations Σ 15PAHs were 69.4 ± 24.7 ng l -1 in seawater, 429.1 ± 231.8 ng g -1 in SPM, and 353.8 ± 128.1 ng g -1 dry weight in surface sediment, respectively. Higher PAH concentrations were observed in SPM than in surface sediment. Temporal trend of PAH concentrations in core sediment generally increased from 1948 to 2004, with higher concentrations in top than in sub-surface, implying a stronger recent input of PAHs owing to the rapid economic development in Shenzhen. Compared with historical data, the PAH levels in surface sediment has increased, and this was further confirmed by the increasing trend of PAHs in the core sediment. Phenanthrene, fluoranthene and pyrene dominated in the PAH composition pattern profiles in the Bay. Compositional pattern analysis suggested that PAHs in the Deep Bay were derived from both pyrogenic and petrogenic sources, and diesel oil leakage, river runoff and air deposition may serve as important pathways for PAHs input to the Bay. Significant positive correlations between partition coefficient in surface sediment to that in water ( KOC) of PAH and their octanol/water partition coefficients ( KOW) were observed, suggesting that KOC of PAHs in sediment/water of Deep Bay may be predicted by the corresponding KOW.

The Use of Mind-body Medicine in Chronic Pain Management: Differential Trends and Session-by-Session Changes in Anxiety

PubMed Central

Cosio, David; Swaroop, Sujata

2016-01-01

The evidence to date suggests that the use of mind-body medicine in chronic pain management can improve physical and psychological symptoms. However, past research evidence has largely relied on global measures of distress at pre- and post-intervention. Even though it is plausible that reported anxiety occurs in the context of pain, there is also evidence to suggest a reciprocal relationship. Thus, the purpose of the current study was to determine the differential impact that mind-body medical interventions have on anxiety among Veterans with chronic, non-cancer pain. The current study utilized multiple, repeated assessments of anxiety to better understand changes made over time between two mind-body interventions (Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)) used for chronic pain management. Ninety-six Veterans elected to participate in either intervention following the completion of a pain health education program at a Midwestern VA Medical Center between November 3, 2009–November 4, 2010. A 2 × 7 repeated measures multivariate analyses of variance indicated significantly lower levels of global distress by the end of both the ACT and CBT interventions. Trend analysis revealed differential patterns of change in levels of anxiety over time. Helmert contrast analyses found several modules of ACT were statistically different than the overall mean of previous sessions. Implications related to timing and patterns of change for the interventions are discussed. PMID:27158683

Understanding the evolution of Mammalian brain structures; the need for a (new) cerebrotype approach.

PubMed

Willemet, Romain

2012-05-18

The mammalian brain varies in size by a factor of 100,000 and is composed of anatomically and functionally distinct structures. Theoretically, the manner in which brain composition can evolve is limited, ranging from highly modular ("mosaic evolution") to coordinated changes in brain structure size ("concerted evolution") or anything between these two extremes. There is a debate about the relative importance of these distinct evolutionary trends. It is shown here that the presence of taxa-specific allometric relationships between brain structures makes a taxa-specific approach obligatory. In some taxa, the evolution of the size of brain structures follows a unique, coordinated pattern, which, in addition to other characteristics at different anatomical levels, defines what has been called here a "taxon cerebrotype". In other taxa, no clear pattern is found, reflecting heterogeneity of the species' lifestyles. These results suggest that the evolution of brain size and composition depends on the complex interplay between selection pressures and constraints that have changed constantly during mammalian evolution. Therefore the variability in brain composition between species should not be considered as deviations from the normal, concerted mammalian trend, but in taxa and species-specific versions of the mammalian brain. Because it forms homogenous groups of species within this complex "space" of constraints and selection pressures, the cerebrotype approach developed here could constitute an adequate level of analysis for evo-devo studies, and by extension, for a wide range of disciplines related to brain evolution.

Understanding the Evolution of Mammalian Brain Structures; the Need for a (New) Cerebrotype Approach

PubMed Central

Willemet, Romain

2012-01-01

The mammalian brain varies in size by a factor of 100,000 and is composed of anatomically and functionally distinct structures. Theoretically, the manner in which brain composition can evolve is limited, ranging from highly modular (“mosaic evolution”) to coordinated changes in brain structure size (“concerted evolution”) or anything between these two extremes. There is a debate about the relative importance of these distinct evolutionary trends. It is shown here that the presence of taxa-specific allometric relationships between brain structures makes a taxa-specific approach obligatory. In some taxa, the evolution of the size of brain structures follows a unique, coordinated pattern, which, in addition to other characteristics at different anatomical levels, defines what has been called here a “taxon cerebrotype”. In other taxa, no clear pattern is found, reflecting heterogeneity of the species’ lifestyles. These results suggest that the evolution of brain size and composition depends on the complex interplay between selection pressures and constraints that have changed constantly during mammalian evolution. Therefore the variability in brain composition between species should not be considered as deviations from the normal, concerted mammalian trend, but in taxa and species-specific versions of the mammalian brain. Because it forms homogenous groups of species within this complex “space” of constraints and selection pressures, the cerebrotype approach developed here could constitute an adequate level of analysis for evo-devo studies, and by extension, for a wide range of disciplines related to brain evolution. PMID:24962772

Strain pattern represented by scarps formed during the earthquakes of October 2, 1915, Pleasant Valley, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, R.E.

1979-01-01

The pattern of scarps developed during the earthquakes of October 2, 1915, in Pleasant Valley, Nevada, may have formed as a result of a modern stress system acting on a set of fractures produced by an earlier stress system which was oriented differently. Four major scarps developed in a right-stepping, en-echelon pattern suggestive of left-lateral slip across the zone and an extension axis oriented approximately S85??W. The trend of the zone is N25??E. However, the orientation of simple dip-slip on most segments trending approximately N20-40?? E and a right-lateral component of displacement on several N- and NW-trending segments of the scarps indicate that the axis of regional extension was oriented between N50?? and 70?? W, normal to the zone. The cumulative length of the scarps is 60 km, average vertical displacement 2 m, and the maximum vertical displacement near the Pearce School site 5.8 m. Almost everywhere the 1915 scarps formed along an older scarp line, and in some places older scarps represent multiple previous events. The most recent displacement event prior to 1915 is interpreted to have occurred more than 6600 years ago, but possibly less than 20,000 years ago. Some faults expressed by older scarps that trend northwest were not reactivated in 1915, possibly because they are oriented at a low angle with respect to the axis of modern regional extension. The 1915 event occurred in an area of overlap of three regional fault trends oriented northwest, north, and northeast and referred to, respectively, as the Oregon-Nevada, Northwest Nevada, and Midas-Battle Moutain trends. Each of these trends may have developed at a different time; the Oregon-Nevada trend was possibly the earliest and developed in Late Miocene time (Stewart et al. 1975). Segments of the 1915 scarps are parallel to each of these trends, suggesting influence by older sets of fractures. ?? 1979.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

2013-04-01

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

Responses of surface runoff to climate change and human activities in the arid region of central Asia: a case study in the Tarim River basin, China.

PubMed

Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

2013-04-01

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

Trends in cardiovascular diseases and cancer mortality in 45 countries from five continents (1980-2010).

PubMed

Araújo, Fábio; Gouvinhas, Cláudia; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Azevedo, Ana; Lunet, Nuno

2014-08-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer are worldwide main causes of death with mortality trends varying across countries with different levels of economic development. We analysed trends in CVD and cancer mortality for 37 European countries, five high-income non-European countries and four leading emerging economies (BRICS) using data from the World Health Organization database for the period 1980-2010. In high-income countries, CVD mortality trends are characterized by steep declines over the last decades, while a downward trend in cancer mortality started more recently and was less pronounced. This resulted in the gradual convergence of the CVD and cancer mortality rates, and the latter are already higher in some countries. The absolute number of CVD deaths decreased in most settings, while cancer deaths increased in nearly all countries. Among the BRICS, China and South Africa share a similar pattern of no meaningful variation in both CVD and cancer age-standardized mortality rates and an increase in the overall number of deaths by these causes. Brazil presents trends similar to those of high-income countries, except for the still increasing number of CVD deaths. The substantial decreases in CVD mortality over the last decades have overcome the impact of the growth and ageing of populations in the overall number of deaths, while stabilization in the number of cancer deaths was observed only in some of the high-income countries. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Climatic and chemical drivers of trends in DOC in northern surface waters in Europa and North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, Heleen A.; Monteith, Don T.; Stoddard, John L.

2016-04-01

Concentrations of DOC in boreal surface waters have increased to levels that create challenges for water treatment plants, and that potentially impact lake habitat through increased anoxia and thermal mixing, and productivity. Aquatic transport of DOC from land to oceans is likely to increase, even if runoff patterns would remain stable. Reduced acid deposition appears to be a dominant driver behind the increase in DOC concentrations, through increasing organic matter solubility. We hypothesize that the higher solubility of organic matter makes DOC more susceptible to climate change. Here, we present trends in DOC from circa 500 lakes and streams in subarctic, boreal and temperate headwater catchments in Europe (UK, Fennoscandia, Czech Republic, Slovakia) and North America (Northeastern US, Ontario, Atlantic Canada) from 1990 until 2012; an extension of the trend analysis presented in Monteith et al. (2007). The water chemical data stem from national monitoring networks, assembled by the ICP Waters network. Sampling frequencies vary from 1 to 52 samples per year. Climate data were obtained from Climate Research Unit in the UK. Trends were calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen-slope estimator. We test 1) if DOC responds to changes in the rate of decline in acid deposition, and 2) if trends in temperature and precipitation affect trends and variability in DOC. Positive trends dominate: the median (±2.5% quartile) of the absolute and relative DOC trends is +0.06 (+0.36 to -0.02) mg C L-1 yr-1 and +1.4 (+4.7 to -0.9) % yr-1, respectively. Overall, the trends do not level off when comparing 1990-2004, and 1998-2012, except in the UK and Atlantic Canada. These two regions are strongly impacted by seasalt deposition but may also experience stronger warming than elsewhere. The response of DOC to changes in SO4 (expressed as trend ratios) is stronger in 1998-2012 than in 1990-2004. We will explore whether this changing relates to increasing dominance of drivers, such as temperature or precipitation, and will present multivariate models of DOC trends in relation to climate and deposition. References Monteith DT, Stoddard JL, Evans CD, de Wit HA, Forsius M, Hogasen T, Wilander A, Skjelkvale BL, Jeffries DS, Vuorenmaa J, Keller B, Kopacek J, Vesely J (2007) Dissolved organic carbon trends resulting from changes in atmospheric deposition chemistry. Nature 450(7169): 537-540

Quality of diet is associated with insulin resistance in the Cree (Eeyouch) indigenous population of northern Québec.

PubMed

Johnson-Down, L; Labonte, M E; Martin, I D; Tsuji, L J S; Nieboer, E; Dewailly, E; Egeland, G; Lucas, M

2015-01-01

Indigenous people worldwide have a greater disease burden than their non-aboriginal counterparts with health challenges that include increased obesity and higher prevalence of diabetes. We investigate the relationships of dietary patterns with nutritional biomarkers, selected environmental contaminants and measures of insulin resistance in the Cree (Eeyouch) of northern Québec Canada. The cross-sectional 'Nituuchischaayihitaau Aschii: A Multi-Community Environment-and-Health Study in Eeyou Istchee' recruited 835 adult participants (≥18 y) from 7 communities in the James Bay region of northern Québec. The three dietary patterns identified by principal component analysis (PCA) were: inland and coastal patterns with loadings on traditional foods, and a junk food pattern with high-fat and high-sugar foods. We investigated dietary patterns scores (in quantiles) in relation with nutritional biomarkers, environmental contaminants, anthropometry, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose and insulin, and insulin resistance. Homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR) was used as surrogate markers of insulin resistance. ANCOVA ascertained relationships between dietary patterns relationship and outcomes. Greater scores for the traditional patterns were associated with higher levels of n-3 fatty acids, mercury and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (P trend <0.001). Higher scores for the junk food pattern were associated with lower levels of PCBs and Vitamin D, but higher fasting plasma insulin and HOMA-IR. Our results suggest that poor diet quality accompanied greater insulin resistance. Impacts of diet quality on insulin resistance, as a sign of metabolism perturbation, deserve more attention in this indigenous population with high rates of obesity and diabetes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamical adjustment of Scandinavian glacier mass-balance time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, D.; Christian, J. E.; Christianson, K. A.

2017-12-01

Glacier mass wastage is often cited as one of the most visible manifestations of anthropogenic climate change. Annual glacier mass-balance is related to local climate and atmospheric circulation, as it is defined as the yearly sum of accumulation and ablation—processes that are strongly influenced by year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation and temperature. Glacier response to a climatic trend can, however, be masked by internal variability in atmospheric circulation, and by non-climatic factors (such as topographic control, wind deposition, and incident solar radiation). Thus, unambiguous attribution of a negative glacier mass-balance trend to anthropogenic forcing remains challenging. Maritime glacier mass-balance records may be especially difficult to interpret due to the high winter balances from decadal-scale climate oscillations and the relatively short time series. Here we examine the influence of climate and atmospheric circulation variability on 14 Norwegian glaciers that span 20° of latitude, from southern Norway to Svalbard. We use dynamical adjustment—a statistical method based on partial least squares regression—to identify the components of variability within the mass-balance records that are associated with the time-varying sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) fields. We find that 30-50% of the variance in the winter mass-balance records of the glaciers in southern Norway is explained by using sea level pressure as a predictor. The leading SLP predictor pattern mimics the spatial signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indicating that winter balance is strongly influenced by the NAO. Moreover, the adjusted mass-balance records indicate a geographic trend: the southern Norwegian glaciers have significant negative trends in the summer balance that remain negative after adjustment, while the more northern glaciers have negative winter balance trends that only become significant after adjustment. We look into anthropogenic warming to explain the trends after dynamical adjustment.

Ocean Bottom Pressure Seasonal Cycles and Decadal Trends from GRACE Release-05: Ocean Circulation Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, G. C.; Chambers, D. P.

2013-12-01

Ocean mass variations are important for diagnosing sea level budgets, the hydrological cycle and global energy budget, as well as ocean circulation variability. Here seasonal cycles and decadal trends of ocean mass from January 2003 to December 2012, both global and regional, are analyzed using GRACE Release 05 data. The trend of global flux of mass into the ocean approaches 2 cm decade-1 in equivalent sea level rise. Regional trends are of similar magnitude, with the North Pacific, South Atlantic, and South Indian oceans generally gaining mass and other regions losing mass. These trends suggest a spin-down of the North Pacific western boundary current extension and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the South Atlantic and South Indian oceans. The global average seasonal cycle of ocean mass is about 1 cm in amplitude, with a maximum in early October and volume fluxes in and out of the ocean reaching 0.5 Sv (1 Sv = 1 × 106 m3 s-1) when integrated over the area analyzed here. Regional patterns of seasonal ocean mass change have typical amplitudes of 1-4 cm, and include maxima in the subtropics and minima in the subpolar regions in hemispheric winters. The subtropical mass gains and subpolar mass losses in the winter spin up both subtropical and subpolar gyres, hence the western boundary current extensions. Seasonal variations in these currents are order 10 Sv, but since the associated depth-averaged current variations are only order 0.1 cm s-1, they would be difficult to detect using in situ oceanographic instruments. a) Amplitude (colors, in cm) and b) phase (colors, in months of the year) of an annual harmonic fit to monthly GRACE Release 05 CSR 500 km smoothed maps (concurrently with a trend and the semiannual harmonic). The 97.5% confidence interval for difference from zero is also indicated (solid black line). Data within 300 km of coastlines are not considered.