Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

A Graduate-Level Survey of Futures Studies: A Curriculum Development Project. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, David C.; Hunt, Ronald L.

An introductory graduate level course curriculum for Futures Studies was conceived, designed, and tested within the Cybernetic Systems Program and the Instructional Technology Department, School of Education, California State University, San Jose. The curriculum consists of a series of 15 learning modules including 2 devoted to a standard study…

Predictors of Future Expectations of Inner-City Children: A 9-Month Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubow, Eric F.; Arnett, Mitzi; Smith, Katherine; Ippolito, Maria F.

2001-01-01

Assessed contributions of internal resources, supportive family and peer relations, peer negative influences, and behavioral adjustment to positive expectations for the future for inner-city school children. Found that higher levels of positive expectation related to lower levels of problem behavior and to higher levels of school involvement,…

Age, gender and deterrability: Are younger male drivers more likely to discount the future?

PubMed

Freeman, James; Kaye, Sherrie-Anne; Truelove, Verity; Davey, Jeremy

2017-07-01

Utilizing the Classical Deterrence theory and Stafford and Warr's (1993) reconceptualized model of deterrence, the current study examined whether age, gender, and discounting the future tendencies influence perceptions of being apprehended for speeding offences. Licensed motorists (N=700; 57% female) in Queensland (Australia) were recruited to complete a self-report questionnaire that measured perceptual deterrence, speeding related behaviors and discounting the future tendencies. Data were analyzed utilizing descriptive, bivariate and multivariate regressions. Significant (albeit weak) positive correlations were found between age and perceptions of apprehension certainty. Males were significantly more likely to report higher incidences of speeding (including while avoiding detection) compared to females. In contrast, females were more likely to perceive high levels of apprehension certainty and consider impending penalties to be more severe. At a multivariate level, discounting the future tendencies (in addition to being male, reporting lower levels of perceptual severity and swiftness, and more instances of punishment avoidance) were predictive of lower perceptual certainty levels. This study is one of the first to reveal that being male and having a tendency to discount the consequences of the future may directly influence drivers' perceptual deterrence levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social ecological factors associated with future orientation of children affected by parental HIV infection and AIDS.

PubMed

Lin, Xiuyun; Fang, Xiaoyi; Chi, Peilian; Heath, Melissa Allen; Li, Xiaoming; Chen, Wenrui

2016-07-01

From a social ecological perspective, this study examined the effects of stigma (societal level), trusting relationships with current caregivers (familial level), and self-esteem (individual level) on future orientation of children affected by HIV infection and AIDS. Comparing self-report data from 1221 children affected by parental HIV infection and AIDS and 404 unaffected children, affected children reported greater stigma and lower future orientation, trusting relationships, and self-esteem. Based on structural equation modeling, stigma experiences, trusting relationships, and self-esteem had direct effects on future orientation, with self-esteem and trusting relationships partially mediating the effect of stigma experiences on children's future orientation. Implications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.

2012-11-01

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M. M.

2012-09-01

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.

2013-04-01

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.

2012-10-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Religion, altruism, knowledge and attitudes toward organ donation: a survey among a sample of Israeli college students.

PubMed

Khalaila, Rabia

2013-03-01

Previous studies have shown that religiosity level, religion, altruism, knowledge, attitudes toward organ donation and registration status are related to future organ donation. The current study examines this association in a multicultural society such as Israel, which had not been studied so far. A convenience sample of 563 students was included in this cross-sectional study. Data about the study measures were collected by a structured and valid questionnaire. Results showed that willingness to donate was positively related to altruism level, positive attitudes toward organ donation and donor registration. However, level of knowledge had no impact on willingness. Finally, while Christian students were more willing to donate organs than students of other religions, religiosity was negatively associated with willingness to donate organs. These results suggest that positive attitudes, a signed organ donor card and a high level of altruism may ultimately translate into an act of donation in the future. Religion and religiosity level are still barriers to future organ donations in a multicultural society such as Israel.

The Integrated Mission Design Center (IMDC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karpati, Gabriel; Martin, John; Steiner, Mark; Reinhardt, K.

2002-01-01

NASA Goddard has used its Integrated Mission Design Center (IMDC) to perform more than 150 mission concept studies. The IMDC performs rapid development of high-level, end-to-end mission concepts, typically in just 4 days. The approach to the studies varies, depending on whether the proposed mission is near-future using existing technology, mid-future using new technology being actively developed, or far-future using technology which may not yet be clearly defined. The emphasis and level of detail developed during any particular study depends on which timeframe (near-, mid-, or far-future) is involved and the specific needs of the study client. The most effective mission studies are those where mission capabilities required and emerging technology developments can synergistically work together; thus both enhancing mission capabilities and providing impetus for ongoing technology development.

Report to the Congress on alternative methods for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-02-01

The purpose of this study is to fulfill the requirements of Public Law No. 101-46, approved June 30, 1989. The study describes and evaluates alternative methods for financing the future expansion of the Strategic petroleum Reserve (SPR), both to the current target level of 750 million barrels and to potential future levels of up to one billion barrels.

Sea level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Eemian interglacial: Review of previous work with focus on the surface mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plach, Andreas; Hestnes Nisancioglu, Kerim

2016-04-01

The contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to the global sea level rise during the Eemian interglacial (about 125,000 year ago) was the focus of many studies in the past. A main reason for the interest in this period is the considerable warmer climate during the Eemian which is often seen as an equivalent for possible future climate conditions. Simulated sea level rise during the Eemian can therefore be used to better understand a possible future sea level rise. The most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) gives an overview of several studies and discusses the possible implications for a future sea level rise. The report also reveals the big differences between these studies in terms of simulated GIS extent and corresponding sea level rise. The present study gives a more exhaustive review of previous work discussing sea level rise from the GIS during the Eemian interglacial. The smallest extents of the GIS simulated by various authors are shown and summarized. A focus is thereby given to the methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. A hypothesis of the present work is that the varying results of the previous studies can largely be explained due to the various methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. In addition, as a first step for future work, the surface mass balance of the GIS for a proxy-data derived forcing ("index method") and a direct forcing with a General Circulation Model (GCM) are shown and discussed.

Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

PubMed

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

2016-08-01

Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation.

Adaptive false memory: Imagining future scenarios increases false memories in the DRM paradigm.

PubMed

Dewhurst, Stephen A; Anderson, Rachel J; Grace, Lydia; van Esch, Lotte

2016-10-01

Previous research has shown that rating words for their relevance to a future scenario enhances memory for those words. The current study investigated the effect of future thinking on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) procedure. In Experiment 1, participants rated words from 6 DRM lists for relevance to a past or future event (with or without planning) or in terms of pleasantness. In a surprise recall test, levels of correct recall did not vary between the rating tasks, but the future rating conditions led to significantly higher levels of false recall than the past and pleasantness conditions did. Experiment 2 found that future rating led to higher levels of false recognition than did past and pleasantness ratings but did not affect correct recognition. The effect in false recognition was, however, eliminated when DRM items were presented in random order. Participants in Experiment 3 were presented with both DRM lists and lists of unrelated words. Future rating increased levels of false recognition for DRM lures but did not affect correct recognition for DRM or unrelated lists. The findings are discussed in terms of the view that false memories can be associated with adaptive memory functions.

Vicarious Futurity in Autism and Childhood Dementia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Michelle G.; Heriot, Sandra A.

2007-01-01

Vicarious futurity is the hope and despair that a person has for another's future. This study examined the vicarious futurity of parents of children with autism and childhood dementia. Participants were 22 parents of children with autism and 7 parents of children with childhood dementia. Variability in levels of vicarious hope and vicarious…

Global Coastal Exposure due to Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points with Multiple Warming Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Sea-level is observed and estimated to continue rising. In the future, the rise could be abrupt and irreversible in century to millennial timescale even if we conduct strong reduction of greenhouse gas emission. Greenland ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet are considered as attributable climate systems which would significantly enhance presently-projected sea-level rise by several meters if global mean temperature passes certain "Tipping points" which would exist around +1-5 degree Celsius above present temperature (1980-1999 average). Therefore, vulnerable coastal low-lying area, especially small islands, deltas or poor developing countries, would suffer from semi-permanent inundation and forced to counteract due to the enhanced sea-level rise. This study estimate range of sea-level rise until the year 2300 and 3000 considering excess of tipping points with using multiple levels of temperature scenarios which consist of excess tipping points and non-excess tipping points pathways. We extract state-of-the-art knowledge of tipping elements from paper reviewing to express reasonable relationship between temperature and abruptly-changing sea-level transition across the ages. This study also calculate coastal exposure globally as affected population, area and asset below the estimated sea-level for each countries with overlaying 30 arc-second gridded topography, population distribution and the sea-level. The result indicates which country would be critically affected if we follow overshooting pathways. Furthermore, this study visualize uncertain coastal exposure due to sea-level rise in the future from the multiple warming pathways. This estimation of possible future beyond tipping point would be useful information for decision-makers to establish new planning of defense, migration or mitigation for the future societies.

The role of CO2 variability and exposure time for biological impacts of ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Emily C.; Munday, Philip L.; McNeil, Ben I.

2013-09-01

impacts of ocean acidification have mostly been studied using future levels of CO2 without consideration of natural variability or how this modulates both duration and magnitude of CO2 exposure. Here we combine results from laboratory studies on coral reef fish with diurnal in situ CO2 data from a shallow coral reef, to demonstrate how natural variability alters exposure times for marine organisms under increasingly high-CO2 conditions. Large in situ CO2 variability already results in exposure of coral reef fish to short-term CO2 levels higher than laboratory-derived critical CO2 levels (~600 µatm). However, we suggest that the in situ exposure time is presently insufficient to induce negative effects observed in laboratory studies. Our results suggest that both exposure time and the magnitude of CO2 levels will be important in determining the response of organisms to future ocean acidification, where both will increase markedly with future increases in CO2.

Future Orientation among Caucasian and Arab-American Adolescents: The Role of Realism About Child-Rearing and Perceptions of Others' Acceptance of Adolescent Pregnancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirza, Saima A.; Somers, Cheryl L.

2004-01-01

Future orientation in adolescents is an important concept to study because of its relations with academic performance and success levels. This study examined adolescents' realism about childrearing and their perceptions of others' approval of teen pregnancy to examine their association with future orientation. Participants were 476 high…

A Metro Network for Educational Futures: State of the Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bleedorn, Berenice D.

This paper presents a history and description of an introductory college level survey course on the future. The objective of the course is to help students recognize the importance of considering the future in every category of learning. A new futures study curriculum at Metropolitan State University, St. Paul, Minnesota, was introduced in 1975.…

Challenge of the Future: Visions and Versions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conboy, William A., Ed.

This book presents background information and approximately 40 articles on various aspects of the future. It is intended for use as a textbook and/or reader in advanced high school or college level future studies courses. The objectives are to help students of the future examine major problems and issues and to encourage them to devise new models…

Renewable Electricity Futures: Exploration of Up to 80% Renewable Electricity Penetration in the United States (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M.; DeMeo, E.; Hostick, D.

2013-04-01

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M. M.

2012-08-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a webinar given by the California Energy Commission.

A systematic model to compare nurses' optimal and actual competencies in the clinical setting.

PubMed

Meretoja, Riitta; Koponen, Leena

2012-02-01

This paper is a report of a study to develop a model to compare nurses' optimal and actual competencies in the clinical setting.   Although future challenge is to focus the developmental and educational targets in health care, limited information is available on methods for how to predict optimal competencies. A multidisciplinary group of 24 experts on perioperative care were recruited to this study. They anticipated the effects of future challenges on perioperative care and specified the level of optimal competencies by using the Nurse Competence Scale before and after group discussions. The expert group consensus discussions were held to achieve the highest possible agreement on the overall level of optimal competencies. Registered Nurses (n = 87) and their nurse managers from five different units conducted assessments of the actual level of nurse competence with the Nurse Competence Scale instrument. Data were collected in 2006-2007. Group consensus discussions solidified experts' anticipations about the optimal competence level. This optimal competence level was significantly higher than the nurses' self-reported actual or nurse managers' assessed level of actual competence. The study revealed some competence items that were seen as key challenges for future education of professional nursing practice. It is important that the multidisciplinary experts in a particular care context develop a share understanding of the future competency requirements of patient care. Combining optimal competence profiles to systematic competence assessments contribute to targeted continual learning and educational interventions. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

National differences in environmental concern and performance are predicted by country age.

PubMed

Hershfield, Hal E; Bang, H Min; Weber, Elke U

2014-01-01

There are obvious economic predictors of ability and willingness to invest in environmental sustainability. Yet, given that environmental decisions represent trade-offs between present sacrifices and uncertain future benefits, psychological factors may also play a role in country-level environmental behavior. Gott's principle suggests that citizens may use perceptions of their country's age to predict its future continuation, with longer pasts predicting longer futures. Using country- and individual-level analyses, we examined whether longer perceived pasts result in longer perceived futures, which in turn motivate concern for continued environmental quality. Study 1 found that older countries scored higher on an environmental performance index, even when the analysis controlled for country-level differences in gross domestic product and governance. Study 2 showed that when the United States was framed as an old country (vs. a young one), participants were willing to donate more money to an environmental organization. The findings suggest that framing a country as a long-standing entity may effectively prompt proenvironmental behavior.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Sandor, Debra; Wiser, Ryan

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) provides an analysis of the grid integration opportunities, challenges, and implications of high levels of renewable electricity generation for the U.S. electric system. The study is not a market or policy assessment. Rather, RE Futures examines renewable energy resources and many technical issues related to the operability of the U.S. electricity grid, and provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective. RE Futures results indicate that a future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible andmore » that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway.« less

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.

2012-08-01

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in a Power Systems Engineering Research Center webinar on September 4, 2012.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M.; Mai, T.

2012-08-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented in an Union of Concerned Scientists webinar on June 12, 2012.

Associations of Affective Responses During Free-Living Physical Activity and Future Physical Activity Levels: an Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

PubMed

Liao, Yue; Chou, Chih-Ping; Huh, Jimi; Leventhal, Adam; Dunton, Genevieve

2017-08-01

Affective response during physical activity may influence motivation to perform future physical activity behavior. However, affective response during physical activity is often assessed under controlled laboratory conditions. The current study used ecological momentary assessment (EMA) to capture affective responses during free-living physical activity performed by adults, and determined whether these affective responses predict future moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels after 6 and 12 months. At baseline, electronic EMA surveys were randomly prompted across 4 days asking about current activities and affective states (e.g., happy, stressed, energetic, tired). Affective response during physical activity was operationalized as the level of positive or negative affect reported when concurrent physical activity (e.g., exercise or sports) was also reported. Data were available for 82 adults. Future levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using accelerometers, worn for seven consecutive days at 6 and 12 months after the baseline assessment. Feeling more energetic during physical activity was associated with performing more minutes of daily MVPA after both 6 and 12 months. Feeling less negative affect during physical activity was associated with engaging in more daily MVPA minutes after 12 months only. This study demonstrated how EMA can be used to capture affective responses during free-living physical activity. Results found that feelings more energetic and less negative during physical activity were associated with more future physical activity, suggesting that positive emotional benefits may reinforce behavior.

Corporate social responsibility of future radiology professionals.

PubMed

Collins, Sandra K; Collins, Kevin S

2011-01-01

Plagued by difficult economic times, many radiology managers may find themselves faced with ethical dilemmas surrounding ongoing organizational pressures to maintain high levels of productivity with restricted resources. This often times tests the level of moral resilience and corporate social consciousness of even the most experienced radiology professionals. A study was conducted to determine what Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) orientation and viewpoint future radiology professionals may have. The results of the study indicate that these study participants may initially consider patient care more important than profit maximization. Study results indicate that these specific future radiology professionals will not need laws, legal sanctions, and intensified rules to force them to act ethically. However,they may need ongoing training as to the necessity of profit maximization if they seek the highest quality of care possible for their patients.

Tomorrow is Today: A Plan for Implementing the Study of the Future in the English Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, David

This course, designed to help students explore serious thoughts about the future of society, is intended for an English literature class at the advanced secondary level. The course consists of nine interrelated modules that deal with the following topics: current predictions about the future, with special attention to the film "Future Shock";…

Thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, and depression among asian americans: A longitudinal study of interpersonal shame as a mediator and perfectionistic family discrepancy as a moderator.

PubMed

Carrera, Stephanie G; Wei, Meifen

2017-04-01

This short-term longitudinal study applied Joiner's (2005) Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicide to Asian Americans' experiences with depression. Interpersonal shame (i.e., the experience of inadequacy arising from interpersonal concerns) was hypothesized to mediate the effects of (a) thwarted belongingness and (b) perceived burdensomeness on future depression. Furthermore, the positive associations between (a) thwarted belongingness and (b) perceived burdensomeness on future depression were hypothesized to vary depending on students' experiences with perfectionistic family discrepancy (PFD; their perceived gap between their actual performance and what their parents expect of them). A total of 605 Asian Americans attending predominantly White, Midwestern universities completed 3 online surveys. Conditional process modeling via Hayes's (2013) PROCESS was used to analyze the data. Results demonstrated that (a) thwarted belongingness and (b) perceived burdensomeness contributed to higher interpersonal shame, which influenced students' future depression. Furthermore, the effect of thwarted belongingness on future depression was significantly positive for those with PFD levels greater than the 12th percentile, after taking into account students' initial level of depression. The effect of perceived burdensomeness on future depression was not significant for those with PFD levels greater than the 3.5th percentile. This study identified that students with perfectionistic family discrepancy may be at higher risk for depression while experiencing thwarted belongingness. Overall, findings supported using Joiner's (2005) theory to understand Asian American students' risk for future depression. Future studies may gather data across Asian American students' years in college. Counselors can apply these findings to increase students' awareness about possible risk factors for depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

78 FR 36753 - North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-19

... landscape system, considering future sea-level rise and climate change scenarios. In addition, the... management and climate change and sea-level rise considerations. Additional information and a study area map...

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M.

2012-10-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It is being presented at the Utility Variable-Generation Integration Group Fall Technical Workshop on October 24, 2012.

Anticipated debt and financial stress in medical students.

PubMed

Morra, Dante J; Regehr, Glenn; Ginsburg, Shiphra

2008-01-01

While medical student debt is increasing, the effect of debt on student well-being and performance remains unclear. As a part of a larger study examining medical student views of their future profession, data were collected to examine the role that current and anticipated debt has in predicting stress among medical students. A survey was administered to medical students in all four years at the University of Toronto. Of the 804 potential respondents across the four years of training, 549 surveys had sufficient data for inclusion in this analysis, for a response rate of 68%. Through multiple regression analysis, we evaluated the correlation between current and anticipated debt and financial stress. Although perceived financial stress correlates with both current and anticipated debt levels, anticipated debt was able to account for an additional 11.5% of variance in reported stress when compared to current debt levels alone. This study demonstrates a relationship between perceived financial stress and debt levels, and suggests that anticipated debt levels might be a more robust metric to capture financial burden, as it standardizes for year of training and captures future financial liabilities (future tuition and other future expenses).

The relationship between future orientation and street substance use among Texas alternative school students.

PubMed

Peters, R J; Tortolero, Susan R; Johnson, Regina Jones; Addy, Robert C; Markham, Christine M; Escobar-Chaves, S Liliana; Lewis, Holly; Yacoubian, George S

2005-01-01

Self-reported substance use data were collected from 963 alternative school students in grades 7-12 who were surveyed through the Safer Choices 2 study in Houston, Texas. Data were collected between October 2000 and March 2001. Logistic regression analyses indicated that lower levels of future orientation was significantly associated (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.97) with thirty-day substance use after controlling for age and gender. In addition, lower levels of future orientation was found to have a significant association with students' lifetime substance use (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.87-.99) after controlling for age, race, and gender. While the relationships tested in this study are exploratory, they provide evidence for an important connection between future orientation and substance use among adolescents attending alternative schools.

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay

PubMed Central

Oddo, Perry C.; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies. PMID:28350884

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

The Future Role of Publishing Services in University Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Tyler

2012-01-01

This study explores possible futures for university-based library publishing services (LPS) and uses scenario planning as its research method. The study posits that the major force in developing LPS is the level of funding from the host university, with the most uncertain factor being whether faculty will adopt LPS. The study participants…

Profiles of Opportunities to Learn for TEDS-M Future Secondary Mathematics Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ting-Ying; Tang, Shu-Jyh

2013-01-01

This study used the data set from the Teacher Education and Development Study in Mathematics to identify the profiles of opportunities to learn (OTL) regarding topics studied in teacher preparation programs by future secondary mathematics teachers from 15 participating countries. The topics of inquiry covered tertiary-level mathematics,…

Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

PubMed Central

Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

2016-01-01

Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

Concern or confidence? Adolescents' identity capital and future worry in different school contexts.

PubMed

Tikkanen, Jenni

2016-01-01

This present study investigated the roles identity capital and school's socio-economic status have on adolescent worry about future education, employment, and social status. The 354 participants were 14- to 15-year-old students from affluent (56.8%) and disadvantaged (43.2%) Finnish lower secondary schools. Structural equation modelling was used to test the hypothesis that a higher level of family-related identity capital is connected to a lower level of future worry, and that this connection is mediated through intrapersonal forms of identity capital, specifically academic self-concept and general self-efficacy. Adolescent future worry was also examined across school status with an independent samples t-test. The findings suggest that, in the relatively equal societal context in Finland, adolescents are rather confident about their future education, employment, and social status regardless of the socio-economic status of the school they attend, and when their level of identity capital is high the future worry decreases further. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grade-Level Differences in Future-Oriented Self-Concept During Early Adolescence: Potential Relevance to School Nursing

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The middle school and early high school years are a time of significant development, including an increasing ability to envision oneself in the future. Little is known about how adolescents’ future-oriented self-concept (i.e., possible selves) differs across grade levels, although this knowledge may aid in establishing rapport with students and building effective health-promotion and risk reduction interventions. Therefore, this study explored grade-level differences in hoped for and feared possible selves in a sample of 6th – 9th grade students (n = 2,498; Mage = 12.72, SD = 1.15; 51.3% female). Findings suggest that adolescents list a variety of possible selves, and the content differs according to grade-level. These findings offer helpful insight for intervention work aimed at improving student outcomes and preventing risk behavior. Understanding what adolescents hope and fear for themselves in the future may be particularly beneficial for school nurses in identifying the unique challenges students experience and tailoring health-promotion efforts. PMID:27222444

Grade-Level Differences in Future-Oriented Self-Concept During Early Adolescence: Potential Relevance to School Nursing.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Pierce, Jennifer; Schmidt, Carissa J

2016-12-01

The middle school and early high school years are a time of significant development, including an increasing ability to envision oneself in the future. Little is known about how adolescents' future-oriented self-concept (i.e., possible selves) differs across grade levels, although this knowledge may aid in establishing rapport with students and building effective health promotion and risk reduction interventions. Therefore, this study explored grade-level differences in hoped for and feared possible selves in a sample of sixth- to ninth-grade students (n = 2,498; M age = 12.72, SD = 1.15; 51.3% female). Findings suggest that adolescents list a variety of possible selves, and the content differs according to grade level. These findings offer helpful insight for intervention work aimed at improving student outcomes and preventing risk behavior. Understanding what adolescents hope and fear for themselves in the future may be particularly beneficial for school nurses in identifying the unique challenges students experience and tailoring health promotion efforts. © The Author(s) 2016.

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision-making at various levels and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on CP 72-2086 the most widely grown...

Effects of Type and Strength of Force Feedback on Movement Time in a Target Selection Task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rorie, Robert Conrad; Vu, Kim-Phuong L.; Marayong, Panadda; Robles, Jose; Strybel, Thomas Z.; Battiste, Vernol

2013-01-01

Future cockpits will likely include new onboard technologies, such as cockpit displays of traffic information, to help support future flight deck roles and responsibilities. These new technologies may benefit from multimodal feedback to aid pilot information processing. The current study investigated the effects of multiple levels of force feedback on operator performance in an aviation task. Participants were presented with two different types of force feedback (gravitational and spring force feedback) for a discrete targeting task, with multiple levels of gain examined for each force feedback type. Approach time and time in target were recorded. Results suggested that the two highest levels of gravitational force significantly reduced approach times relative to the lowest level of gravitational force. Spring force level only affected time in target. Implications of these findings for the design of future cockpit displays will be discussed.

Predicting Health Resilience in Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes: A Test of the Resilience Model Framework

PubMed Central

Huang, Bin; Pendley, Jennifer Shroff; Delamater, Alan; Dolan, Lawrence; Reeves, Grafton; Drotar, Dennis

2015-01-01

Objectives This research examined whether individual and family-level factors during the transition from late childhood to early adolescence protected individuals from an increased risk of poor glycemic control across time, which is a predictor of future diabetes-related complications (i.e., health resilience). Methods This longitudinal, multisite study included 239 patients with type 1 diabetes and their caregivers. Glycemic control was based on hemoglobin A1c. Individual and family-level factors included: demographic variables, youth behavioral regulation, adherence (frequency of blood glucose monitoring), diabetes self-management, level of parental support for diabetes autonomy, level of youth mastery and responsibility for diabetes management, and diabetes-related family conflict. Results Longitudinal mixed-effects logistic regression indicated that testing blood glucose more frequently, better self-management, and less diabetes-related family conflict were indicators of health resilience. Conclusions Multiple individual and family-level factors predicted risk for future health complications. Future research should develop interventions targeting specific individual and family-level factors to sustain glycemic control within recommended targets, which reduces the risk of developing future health complications during the transition to adolescence and adulthood. PMID:26152400

Know thyself: misperceptions of actual performance undermine achievement motivation, future performance, and subjective well-being.

PubMed

Kim, Young-Hoon; Chiu, Chi-Yue; Zou, Zhimin

2010-09-01

Contrary to the popular assumption that self-enhancement improves task motivation and future performance, the authors propose that both inflated and deflated self-assessments of performance are linked to an increased likelihood of practicing self-handicapping and having relatively poor performance in future tasks. Consistent with this proposal, we found that irrespective of the level of actual performance, compared with accurate self-assessment, both inflated and deflated self-assessments of task performance are associated with a greater tendency to (a) practice self-handicapping (Study 1: prefer to work under distraction; Study 2: withhold preparatory effort), (b) perform relatively poorly in a subsequent task (Study 3), (c) have relatively low academic achievement (Study 4), and (d) report a relatively low level of subjective well-being (Study 5). The authors discuss these results in terms of their educational implications. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Temporal self appraisal and continuous identity: Associations with depression and hopelessness.

PubMed

Sokol, Yosef; Serper, Mark

2017-01-15

While depression is associated with decreased self-worth, less is known about how depression relates to the degree of perceived unity of the self over time (CI; continuous identity) and appraisal of past and future selves (temporal self-appraisal). In Study 1, we examined the relationship between depression severity and temporal self-appraisal. In Study 2, we examined depression and hopelessness severity as it relates to temporal self-appraisal and continuous identity. It was hypothesized that individuals with significant levels of depressed mood would report lower self appraisals of current and future selves and that hopelessness about the future would be associated with disturbances in perception of self over time (CI; continuous identity) and temporal self-appraisal. Study 1 examined depressed mood (n=75) and non-depressed mood (n=144) individuals to determine their self-rated personal attributes for their past, present and future selves using a validated task of temporal self-appraisal. Study 2 examined an independent sample of subjects. Based on cutoff scores for clinically significant depression and hopelessness, Depressed/Hopeless (n=63) and Non-Depressed /Non-Hopeless (n=168) subjects were asked complete the validated task of temporal self-appraisal and also complete a validated task to assess their continuous identity. In Study 1, a significant difference was found between the depressed mood group and the non-depressed mood group in how they see themselves changing over time. The non-depressed group perceived themselves increasing in positive personal attributes from past, to present, to future self. The depressed mood group perceived themselves as deteriorating from the past to the present in terms of positive attributes about their self-identity. However, contrary to expectations, the depressed group perceived their future self as improved from their present self. Subjects' past and future selves were at a similar level and both were significantly higher than perception of their present self-worth. Study 2 replicated these findings and also found severity of depression was significantly related to lower levels of CI. Additionally, it was found that the severity of hopelessness was minimally associated with continuous identity and temporal self-appraisal ratings. These results suggests that even people with depressed mood have an instinctive grasp of the possibility to an improved future self-worth despite the negative cognitions associated with present self-worth and hopeless expectations about the future. While depressed and hopeless individuals may view the world negatively and feel hopeless about their general future, these results suggest that depressed individuals distinguish between hopelessness about future external success and future self-improvement. Despite perceiving their past and future selves to be more positive, depression severity was associated with less continuous identity. Since depressed individuals perceive a future self as a return to or a recovery of a past self, therapeutic strategies may focus on improving a sense of continuous identity with past and future selves and focusing on deriving meaning from current life difficulties to improve beyond a past self, growing to a superior future self. Limitations include using self-report measures of depression and hopelessness. Future studies may wish to use individuals who were diagnosed with depression to explore further how depressed people see themselves changing from the present to the future. Additionally, future studies could determine if depressed individuals who do not perceive their future self to be improved are at higher risk for adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome based on Korean boy's metabolite profiling.

PubMed

Lee, AeJin; Jang, Han Byul; Ra, Moonjin; Choi, Youngshim; Lee, Hye-Ja; Park, Ju Yeon; Kang, Jae Heon; Park, Kyung-Hee; Park, Sang Ick; Song, Jihyun

2015-01-01

Childhood obesity is strongly related to future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. Thus, identifying early biomarkers of obesity-related diseases based on metabolic profiling is useful to control future metabolic disorders. We compared metabolic profiles between obese and normal-weight children and investigated specific biomarkers of future insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. In all, 186 plasma metabolites were analysed at baseline and after 2 years in 109 Korean boys (age 10.5±0.4 years) from the Korean Child Obesity Cohort Study using the AbsoluteIDQ™ p180 Kit. We observed that levels of 41 metabolites at baseline and 40 metabolites at follow-up were significantly altered in obese children (p<0.05). Obese children showed significantly higher levels of branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) and several acylcarnitines and lower levels of acyl-alkyl phosphatidylcholines. Also, baseline BCAAs were significantly positively correlated with both homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and continuous metabolic risk score at the 2-year follow-up. In logistic regression analyses with adjustments for degree of obesity at baseline, baseline BCAA concentration, greater than the median value, was identified as a predictor of future risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome. High BCAA concentration could be "early" biomarkers for predicting future metabolic diseases. Copyright © 2014 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

Applications of Human Factors in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar; Margerum, Sarah

2008-01-01

The main question for human factors practitioners is to determine if the user population can be accommodated within a design. Given the wide range of variables feeding into a design, just one of which is human factors, oftentimes designers will have restrictions that may potentially impact the level of accommodation. This paper focuses on two case studies where there have been impacts at the design level that may be detrimental to the ability of the design to meet certain criteria. The studies use novel approaches to determine what, if any, changes in population accommodation levels have occurred and what factors are important when manipulating the design in the future. The results of these studies provide a backbone for future analyses when working with design considerations.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.

2012-08-01

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. This presentation was presented in a Wind Powering America webinar on August 15, 2012 and is now available through the Wind Powering America website.

The Future Value of Interscholastic Participation: An Analysis of the Impact of Participation on Future Earnings and Educational Attainment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, William R.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate the future value of interscholastic participation in extracurricular activities on the individual student level. In this study, two relationships were examined: (a) the relationship between high school student participation and postsecondary educational attainment, and (b) the relationship between…

Thinking about the future as a way to succeed in the present: a longitudinal study of future orientation and violent behaviors among African American youth.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Bauermeister, José A

2011-12-01

Previous research has linked higher levels of hopelessness about one's future to violent behavior during adolescence; however, little is known about this relationship over time for adolescents. Using growth curve modeling, we tested the association between future orientation and violent behavior across the high school years of adolescence in a sample of African American youth (n = 681). Variation based on demographic characteristics (i.e., sex, SES, previous violence) was explored. At baseline, differences in violent behavior varied by demographic characteristics. Overall, violent behavior decreased with age. Higher levels of future orientation were associated with greater decreases in violent behavior over time. Demographic characteristics were not associated with change in violent behavior overtime. Our findings suggest that future orientation can act as a promotive factor for at risk African American youth. Interventions that help support the development of future goals and aspirations could play a vital role in violence prevention efforts.

DCEG scientists discuss researching cancer causes and training future researchers

Cancer.gov

Watch scientists in the NCI Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics discuss research into the causes of cancer at the population level. Topics include genome-wide association studies, HPV genomics, Li-Fraumeni syndrome, and training future scientists.

A Research on Future Mathematics Teachers' Instructional Explanations: The case of Algebra

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guler, Mustafa; Celik, Derya

2016-01-01

In this study, explanations of future mathematics teachers about algebra were analysed according to the levels of understanding used by Kinach (2002). The participants for the study were 101 teacher candidates attending the final semester of a teacher training program. For data collection, a form containing four scenario-type items were…

Effect of descriptive information and experience on automation reliance.

PubMed

Yuviler-Gavish, Nirit; Gopher, Daniel

2011-06-01

The present research addresses the issue of reliance on decision support systems for the long-term (DSSLT), which help users develop decision-making strategies and long-term planning. It is argued that providing information about a system's future performance in an experiential manner, as compared with a descriptive manner, encourages users to increase their reliance level. Establishing appropriate reliance on DSSLT is contingent on the system developer's ability to provide users with information about the system's future performance. A sequence of three studies contrasts the effect on automation reliance of providing descriptive information versus experience for DSSLT with two different positive expected values of recommendations. Study I demonstrated that when automation reliance was determined solely on the basis of description, it was relatively low, but it increased significantly when a decision was made after experience with 50 training simulations. Participants were able to learn to increase their automation reliance levels when they encountered the same type of recommendation again. Study 2 showed that the absence of preliminary descriptive information did not affect the automation reliance levels obtained after experience. Study 3 demonstrated that participants were able to generalize their learning about increasing reliance levels to new recommendations. Using experience rather than description to give users information about future performance in DSSLT can help increase automation reliance levels. Implications for designing DSSLT and decision support systems in general are discussed.

Levels of uric acid may predict the future development of pulmonary hypertension in systemic lupus erythematosus: a seven-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Castillo-Martínez, D; Marroquín-Fabián, E; Lozada-Navarro, A C; Mora-Ramírez, M; Juárez, M; Sánchez-Muñoz, F; Vargas-Barrón, J; Sandoval, J; Amezcua-Guerra, L M

2016-01-01

The objective of this paper is to assess whether pulmonary hypertension (PH) may be detected at one point in time or longitudinally predicted by serum uric acid (sUA) levels in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We conducted a post-hoc analysis of a long-term followed cohort of Mexican SLE patients. Echocardiography-based definitions of PH by the ESC/ERS/ISHLT and its associations with clinical and laboratory data on enrollment were studied. Especially, the impact that sUA levels at baseline may have on the future development of PH in patients with normal pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) was explored. Out of the 156 SLE patients originally enrolled in the cohort, 44 met the inclusion criteria for the present study and were grouped as having (n =10) or not having (n = 34) PH. At baseline, sUA levels of 5.83 ± 1.79 and 5.82 ± 1.97 mg/dl (p = ns) were found in patients with and without PH, respectively. No association between PASP and other markers was found. In patients with normal PASP, the presence of sUA ≥ 7 mg/dl at baseline predicted future development of PH (relative risk 8.5, 1.0009 to 72; p = 0.04). In SLE, sUA levels at one point in time are useless to detect PH. However, steady hyperuricemia may predict the future development of PH in patients with normal PASP at baseline. © The Author(s) 2015.

Patient characteristics influencing evaluation of written medicine information: lessons for patient education.

PubMed

Koo, Michelle M; Krass, Ines; Aslani, Parisa

2005-09-01

Written medicine information (WMI) is considered an important component of patient education. Despite the wealth of information on many aspects of WMI, there is a paucity of studies examining how patient characteristics influence use and evaluation of WMI. To investigate the influence of patient characteristics on the evaluation and intended future use of consumer medicine information (CMI), a form of WMI. A questionnaire was administered to patients from 3 rheumatology/pain clinics in teaching hospitals and 40 community pharmacies. The questionnaire examined patients' perceptions of CMI (comprehension, perceived usefulness, design rating) and likelihood of using CMI in the future. Information on patient characteristics (demographic data, health literacy level) was also collected. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine associations between patient characteristics and their evaluation and intended future use of CMI. A total of 479 patients participated. Comprehension of CMI was associated with speaking primarily English at home, having attained secondary education or higher, and having adequate health literacy levels. Perceived usefulness of CMI was influenced by age and number of medications. Design rating was influenced by type of CMI, patient age, gender, and highest level of education. Intended future use was affected by health literacy level. In addition to individual patient characteristics, overall comprehension and perceived usefulness of CMI also influenced its intended future use. Patient characteristics were found to influence evaluation and intended future use of CMI. These findings should be taken into consideration in future research, development of WMI, and education of patients in everyday practice.

Alcohol Demand, Future Orientation, and Craving Mediate the Relation Between Depressive and Stress Symptoms and Alcohol Problems

PubMed Central

Soltis, Kathryn E.; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan; Murphy, James G.

2017-01-01

Background Elevated depression and stress have been linked to greater levels of alcohol problems among young adults even after taking into account drinking level. The current study attempts to elucidate variables that might mediate the relation between symptoms of depression and stress and alcohol problems, including alcohol demand, future time orientation, and craving. Methods Participants were 393 undergraduates (60.8% female, 78.9% White/Caucasian) who reported at least 2 binge drinking episodes (4/5+ drinks for women/men, respectively) in the previous month. Participants completed self-report measures of stress and depression, alcohol demand, future time orientation, craving, and alcohol problems. Results In separate mediation models that accounted for gender, race, and weekly alcohol consumption, future orientation and craving significantly mediated the relation between depressive symptoms and alcohol problems. Alcohol demand, future orientation, and craving significantly mediated the relation between stress symptoms and alcohol problems. Conclusions Heavy drinking young adults who experience stress or depression are likely to experience alcohol problems and this is due in part to elevations in craving and alcohol demand, and less sensitivity to future outcomes. Interventions targeting alcohol misuse in young adults with elevated levels of depression and stress should attempt to increase future orientation and decrease craving and alcohol reward value. PMID:28401985

Alcohol Demand, Future Orientation, and Craving Mediate the Relation Between Depressive and Stress Symptoms and Alcohol Problems.

PubMed

Soltis, Kathryn E; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan E; Murphy, James G

2017-06-01

Elevated depression and stress have been linked to greater levels of alcohol problems among young adults even after taking into account drinking level. This study attempts to elucidate variables that might mediate the relation between symptoms of depression and stress and alcohol problems, including alcohol demand, future time orientation, and craving. Participants were 393 undergraduates (60.8% female, 78.9% White/Caucasian) who reported at least 2 binge-drinking episodes (4/5+ drinks for women/men, respectively) in the previous month. Participants completed self-report measures of stress and depression, alcohol demand, future time orientation, craving, and alcohol problems. In separate mediation models that accounted for gender, race, and weekly alcohol consumption, future orientation and craving significantly mediated the relation between depressive symptoms and alcohol problems. Alcohol demand, future orientation, and craving significantly mediated the relation between stress symptoms and alcohol problems. Heavy-drinking young adults who experience stress or depression are likely to experience alcohol problems, and this is due in part to elevations in craving and alcohol demand, and less sensitivity to future outcomes. Interventions targeting alcohol misuse in young adults with elevated levels of depression and stress should attempt to increase future orientation and decrease craving and alcohol reward value. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Prediagnostic serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers are correlated with future development of lung and esophageal cancer

PubMed Central

Keeley, Brieze R; Islami, Farhad; Pourshams, Akram; Poustchi, Hossein; Pak, Jamie S; Brennan, Paul; Khademi, Hooman; Genden, Eric M; Abnet, Christian C; Dawsey, Sanford M; Boffetta, Paolo; Malekzadeh, Reza; Sikora, Andrew G

2014-01-01

This study tests the hypothesis that prediagnostic serum levels of 20 cancer-associated inflammatory biomarkers correlate directly with future development of head and neck, esophageal, and lung cancers in a high-risk prospective cohort. This is a nested case–control pilot study of subjects enrolled in the Golestan Cohort Study, an ongoing epidemiologic project assessing cancer trends in Golestan, Iran. We measured a panel of 20 21cytokines, chemokines, and inflammatory molecules using Luminex technology in serum samples collected 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis in 78 aerodigestive cancer cases and 81 controls. Data was analyzed using Wilcoxon rank sum test, odds ratios, receiver operating characteristic areas of discrimination, and multivariate analysis. Biomarkers were profoundly and globally elevated in future esophageal and lung cancer patients compared to controls. Odds ratios were significant for association between several biomarkers and future development of esophageal cancer, including interleukin-1Rα (IL-1Ra; 35.9), interferon α2 (IFN-a2; 34.0), fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2; 17.4), and granulocyte/macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF; 17.4). The same pattern was observed among future lung cancer cases for G-CSF (27.7), GM-CSF (13.3), and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-a; 8.6). By contrast, the majority of biomarkers studied showed no significant correlation with future head and neck cancer development. This study provides the first direct evidence that multiple inflammatory biomarkers are coordinately elevated in future lung and esophageal cancer patients 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis. PMID:25040886

Predicting Health Resilience in Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes: A Test of the Resilience Model Framework.

PubMed

Rohan, Jennifer M; Huang, Bin; Pendley, Jennifer Shroff; Delamater, Alan; Dolan, Lawrence; Reeves, Grafton; Drotar, Dennis

2015-10-01

This research examined whether individual and family-level factors during the transition from late childhood to early adolescence protected individuals from an increased risk of poor glycemic control across time, which is a predictor of future diabetes-related complications (i.e., health resilience). This longitudinal, multisite study included 239 patients with type 1 diabetes and their caregivers. Glycemic control was based on hemoglobin A1c. Individual and family-level factors included: demographic variables, youth behavioral regulation, adherence (frequency of blood glucose monitoring), diabetes self-management, level of parental support for diabetes autonomy, level of youth mastery and responsibility for diabetes management, and diabetes-related family conflict. Longitudinal mixed-effects logistic regression indicated that testing blood glucose more frequently, better self-management, and less diabetes-related family conflict were indicators of health resilience. Multiple individual and family-level factors predicted risk for future health complications. Future research should develop interventions targeting specific individual and family-level factors to sustain glycemic control within recommended targets, which reduces the risk of developing future health complications during the transition to adolescence and adulthood. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Perceptions of vulnerability to a future outbreak: a study of horse managers affected by the first Australian equine influenza outbreak

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A growing body of work shows the benefits of applying social cognitive behavioural theory to investigate infection control and biosecurity practices. Protection motivation theory has been used to predict protective health behaviours. The theory outlines that a perception of a lack of vulnerability to a disease contributes to a reduced threat appraisal, which results in poorer motivation, and is linked to poorer compliance with advised health protective behaviours. This study, conducted following the first-ever outbreak of equine influenza in Australia in 2007, identified factors associated with horse managers’ perceived vulnerability to a future equine influenza outbreak. Results Of the 200 respondents, 31.9% perceived themselves to be very vulnerable, 36.6% vulnerable and 31.4% not vulnerable to a future outbreak of equine influenza. Multivariable logistic regression modelling revealed that managers involved in horse racing and those on rural horse premises perceived themselves to have low levels of vulnerability. Managers of horse premises that experienced infection in their horses in 2007 and those seeking infection control information from specific sources reported increased levels of perceived vulnerability to a future outbreak. Conclusion Different groups across the horse industry perceived differing levels of vulnerability to a future outbreak. Increased vulnerability contributes to favourable infection control behaviour and hence these findings are important for understanding uptake of recommended infection control measures. Future biosecurity communication strategies should be delivered through information sources suitable for the horse racing and rural sectors. PMID:23902718

Perceptions of vulnerability to a future outbreak: a study of horse managers affected by the first Australian equine influenza outbreak.

PubMed

Schemann, Kathrin; Firestone, Simon M; Taylor, Melanie R; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Ward, Michael P; Dhand, Navneet K

2013-07-31

A growing body of work shows the benefits of applying social cognitive behavioural theory to investigate infection control and biosecurity practices. Protection motivation theory has been used to predict protective health behaviours. The theory outlines that a perception of a lack of vulnerability to a disease contributes to a reduced threat appraisal, which results in poorer motivation, and is linked to poorer compliance with advised health protective behaviours. This study, conducted following the first-ever outbreak of equine influenza in Australia in 2007, identified factors associated with horse managers' perceived vulnerability to a future equine influenza outbreak. Of the 200 respondents, 31.9% perceived themselves to be very vulnerable, 36.6% vulnerable and 31.4% not vulnerable to a future outbreak of equine influenza. Multivariable logistic regression modelling revealed that managers involved in horse racing and those on rural horse premises perceived themselves to have low levels of vulnerability. Managers of horse premises that experienced infection in their horses in 2007 and those seeking infection control information from specific sources reported increased levels of perceived vulnerability to a future outbreak. Different groups across the horse industry perceived differing levels of vulnerability to a future outbreak. Increased vulnerability contributes to favourable infection control behaviour and hence these findings are important for understanding uptake of recommended infection control measures. Future biosecurity communication strategies should be delivered through information sources suitable for the horse racing and rural sectors.

Large-Ensemble modeling of past and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a coupled ice-Earth-sea level model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Gomez, Natalya

2016-04-01

To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period. The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE's are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model's ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.

A retrospective study on anthropometrical, physical fitness, and motor coordination characteristics that influence dropout, contract status, and first-team playing time in high-level soccer players aged eight to eighteen years.

PubMed

Deprez, Dieter N; Fransen, Job; Lenoir, Matthieu; Philippaerts, Renaat M; Vaeyens, Roel

2015-06-01

The goal of this article was twofold, and a 2-study approach was conducted. The first study aimed to expose the anthropometrical, physical performance, and motor coordination characteristics that influence dropout from a high-level soccer training program in players aged 8-16 years. The mixed-longitudinal sample included 388 Belgian youth soccer players who were assigned to either a "club group" or a "dropout group." In the second study, cross-sectional data of anthropometry, physical performance, and motor coordination were retrospectively explored to investigate which characteristics influence future contract status (contract vs. no contract group) and first-team playing time for 72 high-level youth soccer players (mean age = 16.2 years). Generally, club players outperformed their dropout peers for motor coordination, soccer-specific aerobic endurance, and speed. Anthropometry and estimated maturity status did not discriminate between club and dropout players. Contract players jumped further (p = 0.011) and had faster times for a 5-m sprint (p = 0.041) than no contract players. The following prediction equation explains 16.7% of the variance in future playing minutes in adolescent youth male soccer players: -2,869.3 + 14.6 × standing broad jump. Practitioners should include the evaluation of motor coordination, aerobic endurance, and speed performances to distinguish high-level soccer players further succeeding a talent development program and future dropout players, between 8 and 16 years. From the age of 16 years, measures of explosivity are supportive when selecting players into a future professional soccer career.

Predicting Future Commitment to Care for Frail Parents Among Employed Caregivers.

PubMed

Lechner, Viola M

1992-06-01

A study of 133 full time employees with parent care responsibilities investigated various factors that could reduce this group's future caregiving commitment to aging parents. Study factors included: caregiver attributes, level of caregiving involvement, job stress, tensions between the caregiver and the dependent parent, caregiver's level of physical and mental strain, and limited support from family and friends. The relationship between the caregiver and the parent was the best predictor of sustained commitment to caregiving. One aspect of the employees' work experience made a small, but important contribution to respondents' future care plans. Those employees who frequently adjusted their work schedule and routine to accommodate parent care demands were less likely to sustain their caregiving commitment. Reasons for these findings are explored and implications for social policy and clinical practice are discussed.

Increasing Student Awareness of Global and Future Issues through a Secondary Level Mini-Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Decker, Dianna K.

This study examines the problem of high school students as future leaders entering the adult world unprepared in the areas of global and international issues. The study was conducted with 145 students, teachers, and administrators in a private high school with university affiliations in a large suburban area. Eventually two students became the…

Elementary School Students' Perceptions of the Future Environment through Artwork

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Özsoy, Sibel; Ahi, Berat

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present study is to investigate first level of elementary school students' perceptions of the future state of the environment through the pictures they draw. The participants of the study are 131 first-grade students, 127 second-grade students, 160 third-grade students, 188 fourth-grade students, and 222 fifth-grade students,…

Racial Discrimination and Health Among Asian Americans: Evidence, Assessment, and Directions for Future Research

PubMed Central

Gee, Gilbert C.; Ro, Annie; Shariff-Marco, Salma; Chae, David

2016-01-01

Research shows that racial discrimination is related to illness among diverse racial and ethnic populations. Studies of racial discrimination and health among Asian Americans, however, remain underdeveloped. In this paper, the authors review evidence on racial discrimination and health among Asian Americans, identify gaps in the literature, and provide suggestions for future research. They identified 62 empirical articles assessing the relation between discrimination and health among Asian Americans. The majority of articles focused on mental health problems, followed by physical and behavioral problems. Most studies find that discrimination was associated with poorer health, although the most consistent findings were for mental health problems. This review suggests that future studies should continue to investigate the following: 1) the measurement of discrimination among Asian Americans, whose experiences may be qualitatively different from those of other racial minority groups; 2) the heterogeneity among Asian Americans, including those factors that are particularly salient in this population, such as ethnic ancestry and immigration history; and 3) the health implications of discrimination at multiple ecologic levels, ranging from the individual level to the structural level. PMID:19805401

Future orientation: a construct with implications for adolescent health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Johnson, Sarah R Lindstrom; Blum, Robert W; Cheng, Tina L

2014-01-01

Multidisciplinary research has supported a relationship between adolescent future orientation (the ability to set future goals and plans) and positive adolescent health and development outcomes. Many preventive strategies - for example, contracepting, exercising - are based on taking actions in the present to avoid unwanted or negative future consequences. However, research has been hampered by unclear and often divergent conceptualizations of the future orientation construct. The present paper aims to integrate previous conceptual and operational definitions into a conceptual framework that can inform programs and services for youth and efforts to evaluate future orientation as a target for intervention. Recommendations focus on furthering the study of the construct through measurement synthesis as well as studies of the normative development of future orientation. Also suggested is the need to pair environmental intervention strategies with individual level efforts to improve future orientation in order to maximize benefits.

Future Orientation: A Construct with Implications for Adolescent Health and Wellbeing

PubMed Central

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Blum, Robert W; Cheng, Tina L.

2016-01-01

Multi-disciplinary research has supported a relationship between adolescent future orientation (the ability to set future goals and plans) and positive adolescent health and development outcomes. Many preventive strategies—for example contracepting, exercising—are based on taking actions in the present to avoid unwanted or negative future consequences. However, research has been hampered by unclear and often divergent conceptualizations of the future orientation construct. The present paper aims to integrate previous conceptual and operational definitions into a conceptual framework that can inform programs and services for youth and efforts to evaluate future orientation as a target for intervention. Recommendations focus on furthering the study of the construct through measurement synthesis as well as studies of the normative development of future orientation. Also suggested is the need to pair environmental intervention strategies with individual level efforts to improve future orientation in order to maximize benefits. PMID:24523304

Increased Visceral Adipose Tissue Is an Independent Predictor for Future Development of Atherogenic Dyslipidemia.

PubMed

Hwang, You-Cheol; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Kahn, Steven E; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

2016-02-01

Atherogenic dyslipidemia is frequently observed in persons with a greater amount of visceral adipose tissue (VAT). However, it is still uncertain whether VAT is independently associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. The aim of this study was to determine whether baseline and changes in VAT and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) are associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of baseline lipid levels and standard anthropometric indices. Community-based prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up. A total of 452 Japanese Americans (240 men, 212 women), aged 34-75 years were assessed at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. Abdominal fat areas were measured by computed tomography. Atherogenic dyslipidemia was defined as one or more abnormalities in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, or non-HDL cholesterol levels. Baseline VAT and change in VAT over 5 years were independently associated with log-transformed HDL cholesterol, log-transformed triglyceride, and non-HDL cholesterol after 5 years (standardized β = -0.126, 0.277, and 0.066 for baseline VAT, respectively, and -0.095, 0.223, and 0.090 for change in VAT, respectively). However, baseline and change in SAT were not associated with any future atherogenic lipid level. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, incremental change in VAT (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.73 [1.20-2.48]; P = .003), triglycerides (4.01 [1.72-9.33]; P = .001), HDL cholesterol (0.32 [0.18-0.58]; P < .001), and non-HDL cholesterol (7.58 [4.43-12.95]; P < .001) were significantly associated with the future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia independent of age, sex, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance, body mass index (BMI), change in BMI, SAT, and baseline atherogenic lipid levels. Baseline and change in VAT were independent predictors for future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia. However, BMI, waist circumference, and SAT were not associated with future development of atherogenic dyslipidemia.

Structuring Video Cases to Support Future Teachers' Problem Solving

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kale, Ugur; Whitehouse, Pamela

2012-01-01

This study examined preservice teachers' problem-solving skills through the use of an online video case study. Eighty preservice teachers participated in the study with a three-level video presentation by a two-grade-level between-subjects factorial design. The study incorporates a content analysis framework to examine both the components and the…

HIV vaccine trial willingness among injection and non-injection drug users in two urban centres, Barcelona and San Francisco.

PubMed

Etcheverry, M Florencia; Lum, Paula J; Evans, Jennifer L; Sanchez, Emilia; de Lazzari, Elisa; Mendez-Arancibia, Eva; Sierra, Ernesto; Gatell, José M; Page, Kimberly; Joseph, Joan

2011-02-24

Being able to recruit high-risk volunteers who are also willing to consider future participation in vaccine trials are critical features of vaccine preparedness studies. We described data from two cohorts of injection- and non-injection drug users in Barcelona, Spain [Red Cross centre] and in San Francisco, USA, [UFO-VAX study] at high risk of HIV/HCV infection to assess behaviour risk exposure and willingness to participate in future preventive HIV vaccine trials. We successfully identified drug-using populations that would be eligible for future HIV vaccine efficacy trials, based on reported levels of risk during screening and high levels of willingness to participate. In both groups, Red Cross and UFO-VAX respectively, HCV infection was highly prevalent at baseline (41% and 34%), HIV baseline seroprevalence was 4.2% and 1.5%, and high levels of willingness were seen (83% and 78%). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Lowe, J A; Gregory, J M

2005-06-15

Coastal flooding is often caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. In this study, improved physical models have been used to simulate the climate system and storm surges, and to predict the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on the surges. In agreement with previous studies, this work indicates that the changes in atmospheric storminess and the higher time-average sea-level predicted for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to changes in the height of water levels measured relative to the present day tide. However, the details of these projections differ somewhat from earlier assessments. Uncertainty in projections of future extreme water levels arise from uncertainty in the amount and timing of future greenhouse gas emissions, uncertainty in the physical models used to simulate the climate system and from the natural variability of the system. The total uncertainty has not yet been reliably quantified and achieving this should be a priority for future research.

Collective futures: how projections about the future of society are related to actions and attitudes supporting social change.

PubMed

Bain, Paul G; Hornsey, Matthew J; Bongiorno, Renata; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Crimston, Daniel

2013-04-01

We identified the active ingredients in people's visions of society's future ("collective futures") that could drive political behavior in the present. In eight studies (N = 595), people imagined society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated (Study 1), abortion laws relaxed (Study 2), marijuana legalized (Study 3), or the power of different religious groups had increased (Studies 4-8). Participants rated how this future society would differ from today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development (e.g., crime, inequality, education, technology), people's character (warmth, competence, morality), and their values (e.g., conservation, self-transcendence). These measures were related to present-day attitudes/intentions that would promote/prevent this future (e.g., act on climate change, vote for a Muslim politician). A projection about benevolence in society (i.e., warmth/morality of people's character) was the only dimension consistently and uniquely associated with present-day attitudes and intentions across contexts. Implications for social change theories, political communication, and policy design are discussed.

Multiple stressors and the potential for synergistic loss of New England salt marshes

PubMed Central

Angelini, Christine; Bertness, Mark D.

2017-01-01

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are converging on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how these stressors interact to affect ecosystem structure and function has immediate implications for coastal planning, however few studies quantify stressor interactions. We examined past and potential future interactions between two leading stressors on New England salt marshes: sea-level rise and marsh crab (Sesarma reticulatum) grazing driven low marsh die-off. Geospatial analyses reveal that crab-driven die-off has led to an order of magnitude more marsh loss than sea-level rise between 2005 and 2013. However, field transplant experimental results suggest that sea-level rise will facilitate crab expansion into higher elevation marsh platforms by inundating and gradually softening now-tough high marsh peat, exposing large areas to crab-driven die-off. Taking interactive effects of marsh softening and concomitant overgrazing into account, we estimate that even modest levels of sea-level rise will lead to levels of salt marsh habitat loss that are 3x greater than the additive effects of sea-level rise and crab-driven die-off would predict. These findings highlight the importance of multiple stressor studies in enhancing mechanistic understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities to future stress scenarios and encourage managers to focus on ameliorating local stressors to break detrimental synergisms, reduce future ecosystem loss, and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change. PMID:28859097

Multiple stressors and the potential for synergistic loss of New England salt marshes.

PubMed

Crotty, Sinead M; Angelini, Christine; Bertness, Mark D

2017-01-01

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are converging on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how these stressors interact to affect ecosystem structure and function has immediate implications for coastal planning, however few studies quantify stressor interactions. We examined past and potential future interactions between two leading stressors on New England salt marshes: sea-level rise and marsh crab (Sesarma reticulatum) grazing driven low marsh die-off. Geospatial analyses reveal that crab-driven die-off has led to an order of magnitude more marsh loss than sea-level rise between 2005 and 2013. However, field transplant experimental results suggest that sea-level rise will facilitate crab expansion into higher elevation marsh platforms by inundating and gradually softening now-tough high marsh peat, exposing large areas to crab-driven die-off. Taking interactive effects of marsh softening and concomitant overgrazing into account, we estimate that even modest levels of sea-level rise will lead to levels of salt marsh habitat loss that are 3x greater than the additive effects of sea-level rise and crab-driven die-off would predict. These findings highlight the importance of multiple stressor studies in enhancing mechanistic understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities to future stress scenarios and encourage managers to focus on ameliorating local stressors to break detrimental synergisms, reduce future ecosystem loss, and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change.

Landscape influence on soil carbon and nutrient levels

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Past runoff, erosion, and management practices influence nutrient levels on the landscape. These starting levels affect future nutrient transport due to runoff, erosion, and leaching events. The purpose of this study was to examine closed-depression landscape effects on surface soil organic matter, ...

Low level laser therapy in the treatment of oral mucositis in cancer patients: systematic review of literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Sabbagh, Rula Fawzi; Selting, Wayne J.

2016-03-01

Oral mucositis is a debilitating and dose limiting side effect of oncotherapy in cancer patients. Low Level Laser Therapy (LLLT) is a promising new intervention for the treatment of oral mucositis. Aims and objectives: 1. Perform a systematic review of available literature on the therapeutic effect of LLLT on established oral mucositis. 2. Formulate recommendations for future studies based on results of review. Methods: Electronic search oflow level laser therapy in the treatment of oral mucositis was conducted and eligible studies reviewed. Results: Four studies met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. A total of 109 patients were included, 59 of which received LLLT as a therapeutic measure. An overall success rate of 81.4% success rate was reported in regard to OM. Conclusion: The review demonstrated the positive therapeutic effect of LLLT on oral mucositis. However, the need for future studies with standardized reporting of parameters and methods is needed to increase the level of evidence of this intervention.

The Effects of Spatial Contextual Familiarity on Remembered Scenes, Episodic Memories, and Imagined Future Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robin, Jessica; Moscovitch, Morris

2014-01-01

Several recent studies have explored the effect of contextual familiarity on remembered and imagined events. The aim of this study was to examine the extent of this effect by comparing the effect of cuing spatial memories, episodic memories, and imagined future events with spatial contextual cues of varying levels of familiarity. We used…

Future Orientation, Impulsivity, and Problem Behaviors: A Longitudinal Moderation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T.

2011-01-01

In the current study, based on a sample of 1,873 adolescents between 11.4 and 20.9 years of age from the first 3 waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we investigated the longitudinal effects of future orientation on levels of and developmental changes in problem behaviors, while controlling for the effects by impulsivity;…

Motivated for Leisure in the Future: A Person-Centred Longitudinal Study in the Lowest Level of Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Veen, Ineke; Peetsma, Thea

2011-01-01

Long-term future time perspective on leisure has been found to relate negatively to school effort. This was studied further by recognizing types of students based on developments in long-term leisure perspectives and comparing their development in motivation and academic achievement. Around 1200 12-13 year old students attending the lowest level…

Collaborative 3D Learning Games for Future Learning: Teachers' Instructional Practices to Enhance Shared Knowledge Construction among Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hämäläinen, Raija; Oksanen, Kimmo

2014-01-01

Collaborative games will enable new kinds of possibilities for learning. In the future, the goal of game-based learning should be to introduce new ideas and deepen learners' in-depth understanding. However, studies have shown that shared high-level knowledge construction is a challenging process. Moreover, thus far, few empirical studies have…

Increasing extreme water level flood risk as a result of future sea-level rise: A case study on a coastal city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, A.; Wu, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. In the context of climate change, this study explored the impact of future sea-level rise on the flood risk of extreme water levels. Using Rongcheng City in Shandong Province, China as a case study, flooded area, expected direct damage losses, and affected population and GDP were assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three greenhouse gas concentration Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that, as a result of sea-level rise induced by climate change, the flooded areas of Rongcheng City would increase by 3.23% to 10.64% in 2050 and by as much as 4.98% to 19.87% in 2100, compared with current recurrence periods. Residential land and farmland are at greatest risk of flooding in terms of exposure and losses than other land-use types, and under a high degree RCP 8.5 scenario, expected damage losses would be between 59.84 billion and 86.45 billion in 2050. Results show that the increase in total direct damage losses would reach an average of 60% in 2100 as a result of a 0.82 m sea-level rise. Similarly, affected population and GDP would increase by between 4.95% and 13.87% and between 3.66% and 10.95% in 2050, and by as much as 7.69% to 29.01% and 5.30% to 20.50% in 2100. This study shows that sea-level rise significantly shortens recurrence periods of extreme water levels, makes extreme flood events more frequent, and exacerbates the risk of future flooding. Our results suggest that, if there is no adaptation, sea-level rise will greatly increase the risk of flooding and severely impact human habitability along coastlines.

Analysis of space systems for the space disposal of nuclear waste follow-on study. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The impact on space systems of three alternative waste mixes was evaluated as part of an effort to investigate the disposal of certain high-level nuclear wastes in space as a complement to mined geologic repositories. A brief overview of the study background, objectives, scope, approach and guidelines, and limitations is presented. The effects of variations in waste mixes on space system concepts were studied in order to provide data for determining relative total system risk benefits resulting from space disposal of the alternative waste mixes. Overall objectives of the NASA-DOE sustaining-level study program are to investigate space disposal concepts which can provide information to support future nuclear waste terminal storage programmatic decisions and to maintain a low level of research activity in this area to provide a baseline for future development should a decision be made to increase the emphasis on this option.

[Low level of physical fitness in Spanish adolescents. Relevance for future cardiovascular health (AVENA study)].

PubMed

Ortega, Francisco B; Ruiz, Jonatan R; Castillo, Manuel J; Moreno, Luis A; González-Gross, Marcela; Wärnberg, Julia; Gutiérrez, Angel

2005-08-01

Several studies have demonstrated that physical fitness in childhood and adolescence is related to cardiovascular risk in adulthood. Current data on the physical fitness of Spanish adolescents are not available. Therefore, the aims of this study were: a) to assess the physical fitness of Spanish adolescents and establish reference values for use in health and educational settings as indicators of cardiovascular health, and b) to determine the percentage of Spanish adolescents below the minimum level of aerobic fitness needed to guarantee future cardiovascular health. The modified EUROFIT battery of tests was used to assess physical fitness in a representative sample of Spanish adolescents (n=2859; 1357 boys and 1502 girls) taking part in the AVENA (Alimentación y Valoración del Estado Nutricional de los Adolescentes) study. Standard parameters for the physical condition of Spanish adolescents are reported in this study. The 5th percentile for maximum aerobic capacity (Course Navette test) ranged from 2.0-3.3 palier in boys and from 1.4-1.9 palier in girls. The findings indicate that, on the basis of aerobic fitness, approximately 20% of Spanish adolescents have an increased risk of future cardiovascular disease. This subgroup also performed poorly in all other tests of physical fitness used. The results reported in this study enable the level of physical fitness in adolescents to be interpreted as an indicator of future cardiovascular health. They also indicate that the physical fitness of Spanish adolescents must be improved to help protect against cardiovascular disease in adulthood.

Predictors of Future Performance in Architectural Design Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, A. S.

2007-01-01

The link between academic performance in secondary education and the subsequent performance of students studying architecture at university level is commonly questioned by educators and admissions tutors. This paper investigates the potential for using measures of cognitive style and spatial ability as predictors of future potential in…

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M. M.

2012-08-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented to the 2012 Western Conference of Public Service Commissioners, during their June, 2012, meeting. The Western Conference of Public Service Commissioners is a regional association within the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC).

Ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin levels and concurrent and future weight change in overweight, postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Soni, Amy C; Conroy, Molly B; Mackey, Rachel H; Kuller, Lewis H

2011-03-01

Weight loss and maintenance can be particularly challenging for postmenopausal women given the changes in body composition, metabolism, and lifestyle that can accompany the menopausal transition. Peptides mediating energy homeostasis (ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin) may play an important role in the weight and body composition changes of postmenopausal women and may in turn be affected by hormone therapy (HT) use. This study examines how success with weight loss may be related to peptides mediating energy homeostasis and HT use. The present analysis involves 200 women from a lifestyle intervention trial in overweight, postmenopausal women for whom data on the peptides ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin were collected at 0 and 18 months. Peptide levels were compared with changes in weight from 0 to 18 and from 18 to 30 months. Baseline peptide levels were not significantly related to future weight change. From 0 to 18 months, ghrelin (P = 0.0005) and adiponectin (P ≤ 0.0001) levels increased, whereas leptin (P ≤ 0.0001) and insulin (P = 0.0003) levels decreased with increasing amount of weight loss. However, only leptin change was related to 18-30-month weight change. Women who were on HT at 0 months but discontinued by 18 months had a greater increase in ghrelin level from 0 to 18 months compared with women with continuous HT use or nonuse. In overweight, postmenopausal women, changes in energy homeostasis peptides relate to both concurrent and future weight change. Future studies should continue to address how ghrelin, leptin, insulin, and adiponectin contribute to body composition changes and weight loss maintenance after menopause.

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico.more » Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.« less

Seasonal forecasting of groundwater levels in natural aquifers in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, Jonathan; Jackson, Christopher; Pachocka, Magdalena; Brookshaw, Anca; Scaife, Adam

2014-05-01

Groundwater aquifers comprise the world's largest freshwater resource and provide resilience to climate extremes which could become more frequent under future climate changes. Prolonged dry conditions can induce groundwater drought, often characterised by significantly low groundwater levels which may persist for months to years. In contrast, lasting wet conditions can result in anomalously high groundwater levels which result in flooding, potentially at large economic cost. Using computational models to produce groundwater level forecasts allows appropriate management strategies to be considered in advance of extreme events. The majority of groundwater level forecasting studies to date use data-based models, which exploit the long response time of groundwater levels to meteorological drivers and make forecasts based only on the current state of the system. Instead, seasonal meteorological forecasts can be used to drive hydrological models and simulate groundwater levels months into the future. Such approaches have not been used in the past due to a lack of skill in these long-range forecast products. However systems such as the latest version of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) are now showing increased skill up to a 3-month lead time. We demonstrate the first groundwater level ensemble forecasting system using a multi-member ensemble of hindcasts from GloSea5 between 1996 and 2009 to force 21 simple lumped conceptual groundwater models covering most of the UK's major aquifers. We present the results from this hindcasting study and demonstrate that the system can be used to forecast groundwater levels with some skill up to three months into the future.

Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

PubMed Central

Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David

2015-01-01

The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. PMID:26554381

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Loneliness and Suicidal Risk in Young Adults: Does Believing in a Changeable Future Help Minimize Suicidal Risk Among the Lonely?

PubMed

Chang, Edward C; Wan, Liangqiu; Li, Pengzi; Guo, Yuncheng; He, Jiaying; Gu, Yu; Wang, Yingjie; Li, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Zhan; Sun, Yingrui; Batterbee, Casey N-H; Chang, Olivia D; Lucas, Abigael G; Hirsch, Jameson K

2017-07-04

This study examined loneliness and future orientation as predictors of suicidal risk, namely, depressive symptoms and suicide ideation, in a sample of 228 college students (54 males and 174 females). Results of regression analyses indicated that loneliness was a significant predictor of both indices of suicidal risk. The inclusion of future orientation was found to significantly augment the prediction model of both depressive symptoms and suicide ideation, even after accounting for loneliness. Noteworthy, beyond loneliness and future orientation, the Loneliness × Future Orientation interaction term was found to further augment both prediction models of suicidal risk. Consistent with the notion that future orientation is an important buffer of suicidal risk, among lonely students, those with high future orientation, compared to low future orientation, were found to report significantly lower levels of depressive symptoms and suicide ideation. Some implications of the present findings for studying both risk and protective factors associated with suicidal risk in young adults are discussed.

The Effect of Career Decisions on Entrepreneurial Intention Levels of University Students Studying Sport Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildiz, Kadir

2018-01-01

This study investigates the entrepreneurial intention levels and career decisions of a sample of 340 university students studying sport sciences. Entrepreneurship refers to a career-related choice that is driven by a risk-taking and innovation imperative. Entrepreneurs of the future are expected to make their career related choices well before…

Cognitive Levels of Questioning Demonstrated by New Social Studies Textbooks: What the Future Holds for Elementary Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Risner, Gregory P.; Nicholson, Janice I.; Webb, Brenda

A major aim of the social studies according to state and local educational goals is to foster students' thinking skills. This study was conducted to determine, according to Bloom's taxonomy, the levels of questioning generated by third-grade social studies textbooks. It examined the extent to which each selected textbook emphasized higher levels…

Review of the Status of Learning in Research on Sport Education: Future Research and Practice

PubMed Central

Araújo, Rui; Mesquita, Isabel; Hastie, Peter A.

2014-01-01

Research concerning Sport Education’s educational impact has shown unequivocal results according to students’ personal and social development. Nevertheless, research is still sparse with respect to the model’s impact on student learning outcomes. The goal of the present review is to therefore scrutinize what is currently known regarding students’ learning during their participation in Sport Education. This research spans a variety of studies, cross various countries, school grades, the sports studied, as well as the methods applied and dimensions of student learning analyzed. While research on the impact of Sport Education on students’ learning, as well as teachers’ and students’ perceptions about student learning has shown students’ improvements during the participation in Sport Education seasons, there is still considerable variance in these results. For example, some studies report superior learning opportunities to boys and higher skill-level students while other studies have identified superior learning opportunities for girls and lower skill-level students. These inconsistent results can be explained by factors not considered in the Sport Education research, such as the effect of time on students’ learning and the control of the teaching-learning process within Sport Education units. In this review directions for future research and practice are also described. Future research should define, implement, and evaluate protocols for student-coaches’ preparation in order to understand the influence of this issue on students’ learning as well as consider the implementation of hybrid approaches. Moreover, future studies should consider the interaction of gender and skill level and a retention test in the analysis of students’ learning improvements in order to obtain a more realist and complete portrait of the impact of Sport Education. Finally, in order to reach an entirely understanding of the teaching-learning process, it is necessary to use research designs that attend to the complexity of this process. Key Points Despite research regarding has showed students’ improvements during the participation in Sport Education seasons, it remains somewhat equivocal. The studies included in this review show students’ improvements on skill, knowledge and tactical development, as we as game play, during the participation in Sport Education units. Some studies report superior learning opportunities to boys and higher skill-level students while other studies exposed superior learning opportunities to girls and lower skill-level students. The effect of time on students’ learning and the control of the teaching-learning process within Sport Education units can explain these equivocal results. Future research is encouraged to consider the implementation of protocols for student-coaches’ preparation, hybrid models, a retention test, the interaction of gender and skill level, and use research designs that attend to the complexity of the teaching-learning process. PMID:25435778

Review of the status of learning in research on sport education: future research and practice.

PubMed

Araújo, Rui; Mesquita, Isabel; Hastie, Peter A

2014-12-01

Research concerning Sport Education's educational impact has shown unequivocal results according to students' personal and social development. Nevertheless, research is still sparse with respect to the model's impact on student learning outcomes. The goal of the present review is to therefore scrutinize what is currently known regarding students' learning during their participation in Sport Education. This research spans a variety of studies, cross various countries, school grades, the sports studied, as well as the methods applied and dimensions of student learning analyzed. While research on the impact of Sport Education on students' learning, as well as teachers' and students' perceptions about student learning has shown students' improvements during the participation in Sport Education seasons, there is still considerable variance in these results. For example, some studies report superior learning opportunities to boys and higher skill-level students while other studies have identified superior learning opportunities for girls and lower skill-level students. These inconsistent results can be explained by factors not considered in the Sport Education research, such as the effect of time on students' learning and the control of the teaching-learning process within Sport Education units. In this review directions for future research and practice are also described. Future research should define, implement, and evaluate protocols for student-coaches' preparation in order to understand the influence of this issue on students' learning as well as consider the implementation of hybrid approaches. Moreover, future studies should consider the interaction of gender and skill level and a retention test in the analysis of students' learning improvements in order to obtain a more realist and complete portrait of the impact of Sport Education. Finally, in order to reach an entirely understanding of the teaching-learning process, it is necessary to use research designs that attend to the complexity of this process. Key PointsDespite research regarding has showed students' improvements during the participation in Sport Education seasons, it remains somewhat equivocal.The studies included in this review show students' improvements on skill, knowledge and tactical development, as we as game play, during the participation in Sport Education units.Some studies report superior learning opportunities to boys and higher skill-level students while other studies exposed superior learning opportunities to girls and lower skill-level students.The effect of time on students' learning and the control of the teaching-learning process within Sport Education units can explain these equivocal results.Future research is encouraged to consider the implementation of protocols for student-coaches' preparation, hybrid models, a retention test, the interaction of gender and skill level, and use research designs that attend to the complexity of the teaching-learning process.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeMeo, E.

2012-08-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at Wind Powering America States Summit. The Summit, which follows the American Wind Energy Association's (AWEA's) annual WINDPOWER Conference and Exhibition, provides state Wind Working Groups, state energy officials, U.S. Energy Department and national laboratory representatives, and professional and institutional partners an opportunity to review successes, opportunities, and challenges for wind energy and plan future collaboration.

Individuals’ Uncertainty about Future Social Security Benefits and Portfolio Choice

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline

2013-01-01

Summary Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this uncertainty influences financial decisions related to retirement planning. To illuminate these issues, we present empirical evidence from the Health and Retirement Study Internet Survey and document systematic variation in respondents’ uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits by individual characteristics. We find that respondents with higher levels of uncertainty about future benefits hold a smaller share of their wealth in stocks. PMID:23914049

Parenting and Adolescents' Depressive Symptoms: The Mediating Role of Future Time Perspective.

PubMed

Diaconu-Gherasim, Loredana R; Bucci, Colleen M; Giuseppone, Kathryn R; Brumariu, Laura E

2017-10-03

This study investigated the relations between maternal and paternal rearing practices and adolescents' depressive symptoms, and whether time perspective in adolescence explains these links. The sample included 306 students (158 girls), aged between 10.83 and 14.42 years. Adolescents completed questionnaires assessing their perceptions of maternal and paternal acceptance and psychological control, and of their future time perspective and depressive symptoms. Adolescents who rated their mothers as more accepting and those who rated their fathers as less psychologically controlling also reported lower levels of depressive symptoms and greater future time perspective. Further, adolescents who had greater future time perspective reported lower levels of depressive symptoms. Finally, time perspective partially mediated the relations of maternal and paternal acceptance, and paternal control with depressive symptoms in adolescence. The findings highlight the unique relations of maternal acceptance and paternal psychological control with adolescents' depressive symptoms, and that future time perspective is one mechanism that might explain why parenting strategies are linked with depressive symptoms in adolescence.

Translating National Level Forest Service Goals to Local Level Land Management: Carbon Sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNulty, S.; Treasure, E.

2017-12-01

The USDA Forest Service has many national level policies related to multiple use management. However, translating national policy to stand level forest management can be difficult. As an example of how a national policy can be put into action, we examined three case studies in which a desired future condition is evaluated at the national, region and local scale. We chose to use carbon sequestration as the desired future condition because climate change has become a major area of concern during the last decade. Several studies have determined that the 193 million acres of US national forest land currently sequester 11% to 15% of the total carbon emitted as a nation. This paper provides a framework by which national scale strategies for maintaining or enhancing forest carbon sequestration is translated through regional considerations and local constraints in adaptive management practices. Although this framework used the carbon sequestration as a case study, this framework could be used with other national level priorities such as the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) or the Endangered Species Act (ESA).

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

Flood return level analysis of Peaks over Threshold series under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xiong, L.; Hu, T.; Xu, C. Y.; Guo, S.

2016-12-01

Obtaining insights into future flood estimation is of great significance for water planning and management. Traditional flood return level analysis with the stationarity assumption has been challenged by changing environments. A method that takes into consideration the nonstationarity context has been extended to derive flood return levels for Peaks over Threshold (POT) series. With application to POT series, a Poisson distribution is normally assumed to describe the arrival rate of exceedance events, but this distribution assumption has at times been reported as invalid. The Negative Binomial (NB) distribution is therefore proposed as an alternative to the Poisson distribution assumption. Flood return levels were extrapolated in nonstationarity context for the POT series of the Weihe basin, China under future climate scenarios. The results show that the flood return levels estimated under nonstationarity can be different with an assumption of Poisson and NB distribution, respectively. The difference is found to be related to the threshold value of POT series. The study indicates the importance of distribution selection in flood return level analysis under nonstationarity and provides a reference on the impact of climate change on flood estimation in the Weihe basin for the future.

Effects of emotion on prospection during decision-making.

PubMed

Worthy, Darrell A; Byrne, Kaileigh A; Fields, Sherecce

2014-01-01

In two experiments we examined the role of emotion, specifically worry, anxiety, and mood, on prospection during decision-making. Worry is a particularly relevant emotion to study in the context of prospection because high levels of worry may make individuals more aversive toward the uncertainty associated with the prospect of obtaining future improvements in rewards or states. Thus, high levels of worry might lead to reduced prospection during decision-making and enhance preference for immediate over delayed rewards. In Experiment 1 participants performed a two-choice dynamic decision-making task where they were required to choose between one option (the decreasing option) which provided larger immediate rewards but declines in future states, and another option (the increasing option) which provided smaller immediate rewards but improvements in future states, making it the optimal choice. High levels of worry were associated with poorer performance in the task. Additionally, fits of a sophisticated reinforcement-learning model that incorporated both reward-based and state-based information suggested that individuals reporting high levels of worry gave greater weight to the immediate rewards they would receive on each trial than to the degree to which each action would lead to improvements in their future state. In Experiment 2 we found that high levels of worry were associated with greater delay discounting using a standard delay discounting task. Combined, the results suggest that high levels of worry are associated with reduced prospection during decision-making. We attribute these results to high worriers' aversion toward the greater uncertainty associated with attempting to improve future rewards than to maximize immediate reward. These results have implications for researchers interested in the effects of emotion on cognition, and suggest that emotion strongly affects the focus on temporal outcomes during decision-making.

A NASA study of the impact of technology on future carrier based tactical aircraft - Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, S. B., III

1992-01-01

This paper examines the impact of technology on future carrier based tactical aircraft. The results were used in the Center for Naval Analysis Future Carrier Study. The NASA Team designed three classes of aircraft ('Fighter', 'Attack', and 'Multimission') with two different technology levels. The Multimission aircraft were further analyzed by examining the penalty on the aircraft for both catapult launch/arrested landing recovery (Cat/trap) and short take-off/vertical landing (STOVL). The study showed the so-called STOVL penalty was reduced by engine technology and the next generation Strike Fighter will pay more penalty for Cat/trap than for STOVL capability.

Behavior Risk Factors Among Russian Students.

PubMed

Anischenko, Aleksander; Arhangelskaya, Anna; Klenov, Michael; Burdukova, Ekaterina; Ogarev, Valrii; Ignatov, Nikolay; Osadchenko, Irina; Gurevich, Konstantin

2017-01-01

Purpose To analyze the prevalence of risk factors among Russian students. Methods In this study, 834 students were included from five Federal universities which were localized in four Federal regions of Russian Federation. Future doctors, school teachers, and wellness trainers were included in this study. Students were specifically asked about smoking, physical activity International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), and food preference. Waist, hip, weight, and height were measured. Results The region of study and ethnic group were not influenced with respect to age and body mass index ( p > .1), while all other factors had a significant influence ( p < .05). High levels of smoking, hypodynamia, and motivation to intake of unhealthy food were found in medical students in comparison with those in future teachers and wellness instructors ( p < .05). The indicators of central obesity (due to levels of body mass index and waist-hip ratio) were found in medical students. Perspective Special programs to prevent the most common behavior risk factors in future medical doctors have to be designed.

Future Time Perspective, Past Experiences, and Negotiation of Food Use Patterns among the Aged.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shifflett, Peggy A.

1987-01-01

Reports findings of an in-depth study of how aged persons negotiated both externally and internally motivated food habit changes. Findings suggested certain past experiences, in conjunction with a negative or positive view of the future, resulted in varying levels of compliance with special diets. (Author)

Peculiarities of Future Technology Teachers' Training in Poland and Great Britain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Androshchuk, Iryna; Androshchuk, Ihor

2017-01-01

The importance of studying foreign experience to enhance the efficiency of teacher training in higher education institutions has been justified. Peculiarities of future technology teachers' training in Poland and Great Britain have been considered. Special attention has been paid to revealing the ways of enhancing the level of teachers'…

Development of Independence among Future Primary School Teachers by Applying Interactive Learning Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rotova, Natalia Alexandrovna

2018-01-01

The necessity to develop independence among future primary school teachers during the process of studying in higher education institutions is substantiated. The essentials of independence notion are disclosed as efforts of students aimed at reaching the goals single-handedly. The results of the ascertaining experiment on defining the level of…

Equipped for the Future. Preparing for Work: A Guide for Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Literacy Studies, University of Tennessee (NJ3), 2011

2011-01-01

"Preparing for Work," developed by Equipped for the Future at the Center for Literacy Studies, University of Tennessee, is a skills-based course designed for implementation in organizations and agencies involved in preparing their clients and students for entry level work. Each of the instructional modules that comprise the…

Death anxiety as a predictor of future time orientation among individuals with spinal cord injuries.

PubMed

Martz, E; Livneh, H

2003-09-16

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between death anxiety and future time orientation among individuals who sustained spinal cord injuries (SCI). Participants were 317 individuals with SCI, of whom 57.4% were US veterans. Data were obtained by means of mailed questionnaires and included responses to the Death Anxiety Scale (DAS), the Future Time Orientation (FTOS) measure, as well as information on participants' personal and disability-related characteristics. A hierarchical multiple regression analysis was conducted to examine the influence of a set of demographic variables, followed by a set of disability-related variables, and finally two factorially-derived measures of death anxiety (denial of death and distressed awareness of death) on future time orientation. Two disability-related variables (pain level and existence of pressure ulcers) and one of the two death anxiety measures (distressed awareness of death) significantly predicted future time orientation. A post-hoc analysis, adding depression as a predictor, was also significant, indicating that an increased level of depression uniquely contributed to a truncated future time orientation. Distressed anxiety and depression may be important factors affecting goals and plans of people with SCI. Future research should attempt to clarify the intricate relationships among negative affectivity, future time orientation, and psychosocial adaptation to SCI.

Behavior Risk Factors Among Russian University Students Majoring in Medicine, Education, and Exercise Science.

PubMed

Anischenko, Aleksander; Gurevich, Konstantin; Arhangelskaya, Anna; Klenov, Michael; Burdukova, Ekaterina; Ogarev, Valrii; Ignatov, Nikolay; Osadchenko, Irina

2016-09-14

To analyze the prevalence of select behavioral risk factors among Russian university students majoring in medicine, education, and exercise science. A total of 834 students from five Federal universities located in four federal regions of Russia were included in the study. The purposive sample included future doctors, school teachers, and fitness trainers. Students were asked specifically about smoking, level of physical activity, and food preferences. To calculate body mass indices (BMIs), waist, hip, weight, and height were also measured. Smoking rates, level of activity, and nutritional habits were significantly different by age, but BMI was not. Smoking rates and BMI were significantly different by gender, but level of activity and nutritional habits were not. Like the differences found by age, smoking rates, level of activity, and nutritional habits were significantly different by ethnicity, but BMI was not. There were significant difference across all behavioral health risk factors by region. The results show significantly higher levels of physical inactivity, consumption of unhealthy foods, and high BMIs among medical students compared with future teachers and wellness instructors (p < .05). In the same time, the smoking levels are the highest among future teachers. The highest prevalence of smoking was found to be associated with gender (for females living Moscow and for males in rural regions), and Russian ethnic group. Tailored programs to prevent common health behavior risk factors among future medical doctors are urgently needed in the Russian Federation. © The Author(s) 2016.

The Effectiveness of Taiwan Building Energy Regulation under the influence of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Yu-Teng; Huang, Kuo-Tsang

2017-04-01

Building energy consumption comprises circa 40% of the national annual energy usage in Taiwan, and the majority proportion is attributed to the cooling apparatus usage. As cooling energy is closely related to the outdoor climate, it is expected that the future global climate change would amplify its demand. Considering the building energy regulation criteria are the minimum requirements that the building has to be complied with, this study tried to investigate whether the current building energy regulation in Taiwan, initiated in 2013, would still be capable of maintaining the energy use in the future as today's level. The research adopted EnergyPlus to simulate the annual cooling energy use of several virtual office building cases with the constructed hourly future weather data under future climate change scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 defined by IPCC. The virtual building cases are generated by a structured orthogonal array with each case is constituted by 10 building design parameters. The results revealed that the building energy consumption based on the current regulation criteria failed to maintain at the same level in the future as oppose to nowadays. By comparing to the current cooling energy usage, it would rise by 13% and 22% in RCP45 and RCP85, respectively, at the end of this century. This research further parametrically studied the potential cooling energy mitigation strategies and proposed effective building envelope design schemes in order to neutralize the future building energy increase.

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

2017-08-01

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebert, Karin; Ekstedt, Karin; Jarsjö, Jerker

2016-07-01

Future sea level rise as a consequence of global warming will affect the world's coastal regions. Even though the pace of sea level rise is not clear, the consequences will be severe and global. Commonly the effects of future sea level rise are investigated for relatively vulnerable development countries; however, a whole range of varying regions needs to be considered in order to improve the understanding of global consequences. In this paper we investigate consequences of future sea level rise along the coast of the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, Sweden, with the aim to fill knowledge gaps regarding comparatively well-suited areas in developed countries. We study both the quantity of the loss of features of infrastructure, cultural, and natural value in the case of a 2 m sea level rise of the Baltic Sea and the effects of climate change on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers, which indirectly cause saltwater intrusion in wells. We conduct a multi-criteria risk analysis by using lidar data on land elevation and GIS-vulnerability mapping, which gives the application of distance and elevation parameters formerly unimaginable precision. We find that in case of a 2 m sea level rise, 3 % of the land area of Gotland, corresponding to 99 km2, will be inundated. The features most strongly affected are items of touristic or nature value, including camping places, shore meadows, sea stack areas, and endangered plants and species habitats. In total, 231 out of 7354 wells will be directly inundated, and the number of wells in the high-risk zone for saltwater intrusion in wells will increase considerably. Some valuable features will be irreversibly lost due to, for example, inundation of sea stacks and the passing of tipping points for seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers; others might simply be moved further inland, but this requires considerable economic means and prioritization. With nature tourism being one of the main income sources of Gotland, monitoring and planning are required to meet the changes. Seeing Gotland in a global perspective, this island shows that holistic multi-feature studies of future consequences of sea level rise are required to identify overall consequences for individual regions.

Renewable Electricity Futures (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.

2012-08-01

This presentation library summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. It was presented at the 2012 RE AMP Annual Meeting. RE-AMP is an active network of 144 nonprofits and foundations across eight Midwestern states working on climate change and energy policy with the goal of reducing global warming pollution economy-wide 80% by 2050.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

Coastline Mapping and Cultural Review to Predict Sea Level Rise Impact on Hawaiian Archeological Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clinton, J.

2017-12-01

Much of Hawaii's history is recorded in archeological sites. Researchers and cultural practitioners have been studying and reconstructing significant archeological sites for generations. Climate change, and more specifically, sea level rise may threaten these sites. Our research records current sea levels and then projects possible consequences to these cultural monuments due to sea level rise. In this mixed methods study, research scientists, cultural practitioners, and secondary students use plane-table mapping techniques to create maps of coastlines and historic sites. Students compare historical records to these maps, analyze current sea level rise trends, and calculate future sea levels. They also gather data through interviews with community experts and kupuna (elders). If climate change continues at projected rates, some historic sites will be in danger of negative impact due to sea level rise. Knowing projected sea levels at specific sites allows for preventative action and contributes to raised awareness of the impacts of climate change to the Hawaiian Islands. Students will share results with the community and governmental agencies in hopes of inspiring action to minimize climate change. It will take collaboration between scientists and cultural communities to inspire future action on climate change.

Incorporating future change into current conservation planning: Evaluating tidal saline wetland migration along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

2015-11-02

In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quantified the potential for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. Our analyses focused exclusively on tidal saline wetlands (that is, mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats), and we combined these diverse tidal saline wetland ecosystems into a single grouping, “tidal saline wetland.” Collectively, our approach and findings can provide useful information for scientists and environmental planners working to develop future-focused adaptation strategies for conserving coastal landscapes and the ecosystem goods and services provided by tidal saline wetlands. The primary product of this work is a public dataset that identifies locations where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is expected to occur under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. In addition to identifying areas where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is possible because of the absence of barriers, these data also identify locations where landward migration of these wetlands could be prevented by barriers associated with current urbanization, future urbanization, and levees.

Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis.

PubMed

Ercin, A Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2014-03-01

This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on future concentrated solar power (CSP) production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian

2017-02-01

Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar power plants, the amount of solar radiation incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be invariable over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering several decades indeed confirm long-term changes in this quantity. In a previous study (Wild et al. 2015, Solar Energy)1 we examined how the latest generation of climate models (CMIP5) projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, future power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. In the present complementary study, we use the CMIP5 model projections to estimate possible future changes in power output from Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems due to changing climate and air pollution levels up to the mid-21th century. The results indicate a potential for future increases in CSP production in many parts of the globe, with few exceptions such as the North of India and the irrelevant polar areas. Compared to the changes in PV production, the estimated future production changes by CSP are larger by a factor of 4.

Plasma Free Amino Acid Profiles Predict Four-Year Risk of Developing Diabetes, Metabolic Syndrome, Dyslipidemia, and Hypertension in Japanese Population

PubMed Central

Yamakado, Minoru; Nagao, Kenji; Imaizumi, Akira; Tani, Mizuki; Toda, Akiko; Tanaka, Takayuki; Jinzu, Hiroko; Miyano, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Daimon, Takashi; Horimoto, Katsuhisa; Ishizaka, Yuko

2015-01-01

Plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile is highlighted in its association with visceral obesity and hyperinsulinemia, and future diabetes. Indeed PFAA profiling potentially can evaluate individuals’ future risks of developing lifestyle-related diseases, in addition to diabetes. However, few studies have been performed especially in Asian populations, about the optimal combination of PFAAs for evaluating health risks. We quantified PFAA levels in 3,701 Japanese subjects, and determined visceral fat area (VFA) and two-hour post-challenge insulin (Ins120 min) values in 865 and 1,160 subjects, respectively. Then, models between PFAA levels and the VFA or Ins120 min values were constructed by multiple linear regression analysis with variable selection. Finally, a cohort study of 2,984 subjects to examine capabilities of the obtained models for predicting four-year risk of developing new-onset lifestyle-related diseases was conducted. The correlation coefficients of the obtained PFAA models against VFA or Ins120 min were higher than single PFAA level. Our models work well for future risk prediction. Even after adjusting for commonly accepted multiple risk factors, these models can predict future development of diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and dyslipidemia. PFAA profiles confer independent and differing contributions to increasing the lifestyle-related disease risks in addition to the currently known factors in a general Japanese population. PMID:26156880

Understanding physical (in-) activity, overweight, and obesity in childhood: Effects of congruence between physical self-concept and motor competence.

PubMed

Utesch, T; Dreiskämper, D; Naul, R; Geukes, K

2018-04-12

Both the physical self-concept and actual motor competence are important for healthy future physical activity levels and consequently decrease overweight and obesity in childhood. However, children scoring high on motor competence do not necessarily report high levels of physical self-concept and vice versa, resulting in respective (in-) accuracy also referred to as (non-) veridicality. This study examines whether children's accuracy of physical self-concept is a meaningful predictive factor for their future physical activity. Motor competence, physical self-concept and physical activity were assessed in 3 rd grade and one year later in 4 th grade. Children's weight status was categorized based on WHO recommendations. Polynomial regression with Response surface analyses were conducted with a quasi-DIF approach examining moderating weight status effects. Analyses revealed that children with higher motor competence levels and higher self-perceptions show greater physical activity. Importantly, children who perceive their motor competence more accurately (compared to less) show more future physical activity. This effect is strong for underweight and overweight/obese children, but weak for normal weight children. This study indicates that an accurate self-perception of motor competence fosters future physical activity beyond single main effects, respectively. Hence, the promotion of actual motor competence should be linked with the respective development of accurate self-knowledge.

The Journey of a Science Teacher: Preparing Female Students in the Training Future Scientists after School Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson-Hill, Rona M.

2013-01-01

What affect does female participation in the Training Future Scientist (TFS) program based on Vygotsky's sociocultural theory and Maslow's Hierarchies of Needs have on female adolescents' achievement levels in science and their attitude toward science and interest in science-based careers? The theoretical framework for this study was developed…

African American Adolescents' Future Education Orientation: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Ethnic Identity, and Perceived Parental Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerpelman, Jennifer L.; Eryigit, Suna; Stephens, Carolyn J.

2008-01-01

The current study, using data from 374 African American students (59.4% female) in grades 7-12 attending a rural, southern county public school, addressed associations of self-efficacy, ethnic identity and parental support with "future education orientation." Both gender and current level of achievement distinguished adolescents with…

The Importance of Future Kindergarten Teachers' Beliefs about the Usefulness of Games Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manessis, Dionysios

2014-01-01

This paper examines the importance of future kindergarten teachers' beliefs about the usefulness of Games Based Learning in Early Childhood Education. Data were collected by using questionnaires which were given to the participants at the end of an introductory level, Information and Communication Technologies course. The sample of this study was…

The Future of Accessibility in International Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alphin, Henry C., Jr., Ed.; Chan, Roy Y., Ed.; Lavine, Jennie, Ed.

2017-01-01

Education is the foundation to almost all successful lives, and it is important that a high level of schooling be available on a global scale. Studying the trends in accessibility in education will allow educators to improve their own teaching techniques, as well as expand their influence to more remote areas in the world. "The Future of…

What Inspires South African Student Teachers for Their Future Profession

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolhuter, Charl; van der Walt, Hannes; Potgieter, Ferdinand; Meyer, Louisa; Mamiala, Thapelo

2012-01-01

The need for an inspired professional teacher corps to haul South African school education out of its current low level of quality was the driving force behind this project. Its aim was to determine what counted as sources of inspiration for student teachers and hence for future teachers. Based on a conceptual-theoretical study, a questionnaire…

The Role of the Company in Generating Skills. The Learning Effects of Work Organization. Portugal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Maria Joao; Lopes, Helena

The impact of changes in work organization on development of Portugese workers' skills was examined. At the macro level, a national study was conducted to identify current and possible future relationships among initial training, continuing training, the labor market, and industrial relations in Portugal. At the micro level, cases studies of three…

Measurement Error Correction Formula for Cluster-Level Group Differences in Cluster Randomized and Observational Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cho, Sun-Joo; Preacher, Kristopher J.

2016-01-01

Multilevel modeling (MLM) is frequently used to detect cluster-level group differences in cluster randomized trial and observational studies. Group differences on the outcomes (posttest scores) are detected by controlling for the covariate (pretest scores) as a proxy variable for unobserved factors that predict future attributes. The pretest and…

The Role of Personality Traits through Habit and Intention on Determining Future Preferences of Public Transport Use

PubMed Central

Yazdanpanah, Mahdi; Hadji Hosseinlou, Mansour

2017-01-01

A complex set of factors may affect transportation mode choice. While earlier studies have often considered objective factors in determining preferences of public transport use as a sustainable transportation, subjective factors such as personality traits are underexplored. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the influence of personality traits on the number of future public transport use. Additionally, “car habit” and “intention toward using public modes” were considered to be important. For this purpose, a case study from departure passengers at Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKIA, Tehran, Iran) was conducted between January and February 2015 at IKIA. Results of structural equation modeling (SEM) shows that only neuroticism and extraversion personality traits were significant in determining future public transportation mode choice. However, the model indicates that these traits indirectly influence intention and car habit. Neuroticism was found to have a total effect of −0.022 on future public transport use, which represents a negative association with public transport use, while extraversion positively influenced future public transport use with a total effect of 0.031. Moreover, the results found interestingly that car access had a better fit to the data than the number of cars in household (NCH); both had significant positive effect on car habit, but only car access had a significant influence on intention. Furthermore, the effect of socio-demographic variables such as age, gender, educational level, income level, and body mass index (BMI) were determined to be significant in identifying choice of future transport mode to airports, which is explained in the discussion section of this paper. PMID:28218641

Recent progress and future direction of cancer epidemiological research in Japan.

PubMed

Sobue, Tomotaka

2015-06-01

In 2006, the Cancer Control Act was approved and a Basic Plan, to Promote the Cancer Control Program at the national level, was developed in 2007. Cancer research is recognized as a fundamental component to provide evidence in cancer control program. Cancer epidemiology plays central role in connecting research and policy, since it directly deals with data from humans. Research for cancer epidemiology in Japan made substantial progress, in the field of descriptive studies, cohort studies, intervention studies and activities for summarizing evidences. In future, promoting high-quality large-scale intervention studies, individual-level linkage studies, simulation models and studies for elderly population will be of great importance, but at the same time research should be promoted in well-balanced fashion not placing too much emphasis on one particular research field. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Translating national level forest service goals to local level land management: carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Steven McNulty; Emrys Treasure; Lisa Jennings; David Meriwether; David Harris; Paul Arndt

2017-01-01

The USDA Forest Service has many national level policies related to multiple use management. However, translating national policy to stand level forest management can be difficult. As an example of how a national policy can be put into action, we examined three case studies in which a desired future condition is evaluated at the national, region, and local scale. We...

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution presented in this research, while the larger, low probability scenarios beyond this level are estimated to contribute a residual annual risk of approximately £0.45 million. These findings clearly demonstrate that uncertainty in future sea level rise is a vital component of coastal flood risk, and therefore, needs to be accounted for by decision makers when considering mitigation policies related to coastal flooding.

Renewable Electricity Futures: Exploration of a U.S. Grid with 80% Renewable Electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Trieu

2013-04-01

Renewable Electricity Futures is an initial investigation of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the contiguous United States over the next several decades. This study explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels: from 30% up to 90% (focusing on 80%) of all U.S. electricity generation from renewable technologies in 2050. At such high levels of renewable electricity penetration, the unique characteristics of some renewable resources, specifically geographical distribution and variability and un-certainty in output, pose challenges to the operability of the nation's electric system. The study focuses on key technical implications of this environment from a national perspective, exploring whether the U.S. power system can supply electricity to meet customer demand on an hourly basis with high levels of renewable electricity, including variable wind and solar generation. The study also identifies some of the potential economic, environmental, and social implications of deploying and integrating high levels of renewable electricity in the U.S. The full report and associated supporting information is available at: http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/refutures/.

Optimisation of a green gas supply chain--a review.

PubMed

Bekkering, J; Broekhuis, A A; van Gemert, W J T

2010-01-01

In this review the knowledge status of and future research options on a green gas supply based on biogas production by co-digestion is explored. Applications and developments of the (bio)gas supply in The Netherlands have been considered, whereafter literature research has been done into the several stages from production of dairy cattle manure and biomass to green gas injection into the gas grid. An overview of a green gas supply chain has not been made before. In this study it is concluded that on installation level (micro-level) much practical knowledge is available and on macro-level knowledge about availability of biomass. But on meso-level (operations level of a green gas supply) very little research has been done until now. Future research should include the modeling of a green gas supply chain on an operations level, i.e. questions must be answered as where to build digesters based on availability of biomass. Such a model should also advise on technology of upgrading depending on scale factors. Future research might also give insight in the usability of mixing (partly upgraded) biogas with natural gas. The preconditions for mixing would depend on composition of the gas, the ratio of gases to be mixed and the requirements on the mixture.

Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucak, T.; Trolle, D.; Andersen, H. E.; Thodsen, H.; Erdoğan, Ş.; Levi, E. E.; Filiz, N.; Jeppesen, E.; Beklioğlu, M.

2016-12-01

Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyşehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (ɛ-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ɛ-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water sources are vitally important to sustain lake ecosystems and their ecosystem services.

Evidence of the Value of the Smoking Media Literacy Framework for Middle School Students.

PubMed

Bier, Melinda C; Zwarun, Lara; Sherblom, Stephen A

2016-10-01

Susceptibility to future smoking, positive beliefs about smoking, and perceptions of antismoking norms are all factors that are associated with future smoking. In previous research, smoking media literacy (SML) has been associated with these variables, even when controlling for other known risk factors for smoking. However, these studies were performed with older teenagers, often in high school, not younger teens at a crucial developmental point with respect to the decision to begin smoking. This study uses survey data collected from 656 American public middle school students representing multiple zip codes, schools, and school districts. Smoking media literacy levels for middle school students were similar to those of high school students in earlier studies. Higher SML levels were associated with lower susceptibility to future smoking and predicted susceptibility to smoke when controlling for other risk factors. This suggests that the same relationships found with teenagers may exist with middle school students. Although follow-up studies using larger and more controlled administrations of the SML scale are warranted, this study suggests the utility of the SML framework and scale in the development and investigation of media literacy as a prevention strategy in students this age. © 2016, American School Health Association.

Mental time travel to the future might be reduced in sleep.

PubMed

Speth, Jana; Schloerscheidt, Astrid M; Speth, Clemens

2017-02-01

We present a quantitative study of mental time travel to the future in sleep. Three independent, blind judges analysed a total of 563 physiology-monitored mentation reports from sleep onset, REM sleep, non-REM sleep, and waking. The linguistic tool for the mentation report analysis is based on established grammatical and cognitive-semantic theories and has been validated in previous studies. Our data indicate that REM and non-REM sleep must be characterized by a reduction in mental time travel to the future, which would support earlier physiological evidence at the level of brain function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Two routes toward optimism: how agentic and communal themes in autobiographical memories guide optimism for the future.

PubMed

Austin, Adrienne; Costabile, Kristi

2017-11-01

Autobiographical memories are particularly adaptive because they function not only to preserve the past, but also to direct our future thoughts and behaviours. Two studies were conducted to examine how communal and agentic themes of positive autobiographical memories differentially predicted the route from autobiographical memories to optimism for the future. Across two studies, results revealed that the degree to which participants focused on communal themes in their autobiographical memories predicted their experience of nostalgia. In turn, the experience of nostalgia increased participants' levels of self-esteem and in turn, optimism for the future. By contrast, the degree to which participants focused on agentic themes in their memories predicted self-esteem and optimism, operating outside the experience of nostalgia. These effects remained even after controlling for self-focused attention. Together, these studies provide greater understanding of the interrelations among autobiographical memory, self-concept, and time, and demonstrate how agency and communion operate to influence perceptions of one's future when thinking about the past.

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Optimism following a tornado disaster.

PubMed

Suls, Jerry; Rose, Jason P; Windschitl, Paul D; Smith, Andrew R

2013-05-01

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

EMMA: The expert system for munition maintenance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mullins, Barry E.

1988-01-01

Expert Missile Maintenance Aid (EMMA) is a first attempt to enhance maintenance of the tactical munition at the field and depot level by using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The ultimate goal of EMMA is to help a novice maintenance technician isolate and diagnose electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical equipment faults to the board/chassis level more quickly and consistently than the best human expert using the best currently available automatic test equipment (ATE). To this end, EMMA augments existing ATE with an expert system that captures the knowledge of design and maintenance experts. The EMMA program is described, including the evaluation of field-level expert system prototypes, the description of several study tasks performed during EMMA, and future plans for a follow-on program. This paper will briefly address several study tasks performed during EMMA. The paper concludes with a discussion of future plans for a follow-on program and other areas of concern.

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of themore » inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.« less

Endothelial Progenitor Cell Levels Predict Future Physical Function: An Exploratory Analysis From the VA Enhanced Fitness Study.

PubMed

Povsic, Thomas J; Sloane, Richard; Pieper, Carl F; Pearson, Megan P; Peterson, Eric D; Cohen, Harvey J; Morey, Miriam C

2016-03-01

Levels of circulating progenitor cells (CPCs) are depleted with aging and chronic injury and are associated with level of physical functioning; however, little is known about the correlation of CPCs with longer-term measures of physical capabilities. We sought to determine the association of CPCs with future levels of physical function and with changes in physical function over time. CPCs were measured in 117 participants with impaired glucose tolerance in the Enhanced Fitness clinical trial based on the cell surface markers CD34 and CD133 and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) activity at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months. Physical function was assessed using usual and rapid gait speed, 6-minute walk distance, chair stand time, and SF-36 physical functioning score and reassessed at 3 and 12 months after clinical intervention. Higher baseline levels of CD133(+), CD34(+), CD133(+)CD34(+), and ALDH(br) were each highly predictive of faster gait speed and longer distance walked in 6 minutes at both 3 and 12 months. These associations remained robust after adjustment for age, body mass index, baseline covariates, and inflammation and were independent of interventions to improve physical fitness. Further, higher CPC levels predicted greater improvements in usual and rapid gait speed over 1 year. Baseline CPC levels are associated not only with baseline mobility but also with future physical function, including changes in gait speed. These findings suggest that CPC measurement may be useful as a marker of both current and future physiologic aging and functional decline. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Physical activity, physical fitness, and overweight in children and adolescents: evidence from epidemiologic studies].

PubMed

Ortega, Francisco B; Ruiz, Jonatan R; Castillo, Manuel J

2013-10-01

Physical activity and fitness play a significant role in prevention of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents. Current understanding and evidence from epidemiologic studies provide useful insights to better understand how they relate to each other and how to develop future intervention strategies. This paper summarizes the most relevant information from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies on the relationships between physical activity, physical fitness, and overweight in early life. According to current scientific evidence: (i) High levels of physical activity during childhood and adolescence, particularly vigorous physical activity, are associated to lower total and central adiposity at this age and later in life; (ii) the level of physical fitness, especially aerobic fitness, is inversely related to current and future adiposity levels; (iii) overweight children and adolescents with a high fitness level have a healthier cardiovascular profile than their overweight, low fit peers and a similar profile to their normal weight, low fit peers. This suggests that high fitness levels may counteract the negative consequences attributed to body fat. These findings suggest that increasing physical fitness in overweight children and adolescents may have many positive effects on health, including lower body fat levels. Copyright © 2012 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Information Dominance in Military Decision Making.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-06-04

This study considers how ABCS (Army Battle Command System) capabilities achieve information dominance and how they influence the military decision...making process. The work examines how ABCS enables commanders and staffs to achieve information dominance at the brigade and battalion levels. Further...future digitized systems that will gain information dominance for the future commander. It promotes the continued development information dominance technologies

Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This booklet presents an overview of the findings pertaining to eighth, tenth, and twelfth grade students from the 1999 Monitoring the Future Study. This overview focuses on recent trends in the use of various licit and illicit drugs. It also examines trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug, which…

A Study of Adjustment Problems and Academic Achievement of Students at College Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tamilselvi, B.; Rajaguru, S.

2010-01-01

Future world is in the hands of present youth. It is a well known fact that education shapes the future of the youth. The college is the major socialization institution of the youth. College is one of the most important foundation pillars on which the youth's personality develops. Adolescents learn proficiencies in various abilities like learning…

Ozone perturbations by enhanced levels of CFCs, N2O, and CH4 A two-dimensional diabatic circulation study including uncertainty estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaksen, I. S. A.; Stordal, F.

1986-01-01

Observations made over the last few years suggest that the tropospheric concentrations of N2O, CH4, and O3 are increasing. Increases in the concentration of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been observed for some time. The present study is concerned with combined scenarios of future releases of N2O, CH4, and CFCs, which can affect the height profiles of ozone, while changes in latitudinal gradients of ozone may also be expected. Ozone perturbation calculations performed in the two-dimensional transport-chemistry model described by Stordal et al. (1985) are also presented, and the effects of increased levels of CFCs, N2O, and CH4 are examined. It is found that CH4 may be the most important ozone-perturbing trace species in connection with future tropospheric climatic impacts. A substantial increase in the tropospheric abundancy of CH4 could lead to large future ozone enhancements throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere at middle and low latitudes.

Well-being and Anticipation for Future Positive Events: Evidences from an fMRI Study.

PubMed

Luo, Yangmei; Chen, Xuhai; Qi, Senqing; You, Xuqun; Huang, Xiting

2017-01-01

Anticipation for future confers great benefits to human well-being and mental health. However, previous work focus on how people's well-being correlate with brain activities during perception of emotional stimuli, rather than anticipation for the future events. Here, the current study investigated how well-being relates to neural circuitry underlying the anticipating process of future desired events. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, 40 participants were scanned while they were performing an emotion anticipation task, in which they were instructed to anticipate the positive or neutral events. The results showed that bilateral medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) were activated during anticipation for positive events relative to neutral events, and the enhanced brain activation in MPFC was associated with higher level of well-being. The findings suggest a neural mechanism by which the anticipation process to future desired events correlates to human well-being, which provide a future-oriented view on the neural sources of well-being.

Well-being and Anticipation for Future Positive Events: Evidences from an fMRI Study

PubMed Central

Luo, Yangmei; Chen, Xuhai; Qi, Senqing; You, Xuqun; Huang, Xiting

2018-01-01

Anticipation for future confers great benefits to human well-being and mental health. However, previous work focus on how people’s well-being correlate with brain activities during perception of emotional stimuli, rather than anticipation for the future events. Here, the current study investigated how well-being relates to neural circuitry underlying the anticipating process of future desired events. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, 40 participants were scanned while they were performing an emotion anticipation task, in which they were instructed to anticipate the positive or neutral events. The results showed that bilateral medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) were activated during anticipation for positive events relative to neutral events, and the enhanced brain activation in MPFC was associated with higher level of well-being. The findings suggest a neural mechanism by which the anticipation process to future desired events correlates to human well-being, which provide a future-oriented view on the neural sources of well-being. PMID:29375415

Asian Students' Conceptions of Future Civic Engagement: Comparing Clusters Using Person-Centered Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Joseph Kui Foon; Kennedy, Kerry J.

2015-01-01

Researchers in comparative education have suggested different ways in which their field of study can be enhanced by considering units of analysis at different levels rather than focusing on a single level such as the nation-state (Bray and Thomas, 1995; Torney-Purta and Barber, 2011). The study reported here seeks to contribute to this area of…

Introduction to the Student Flow Model SFM-IA. Technical Report No. 41A. Preliminary Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Richard S.

The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) Student Flow Model (SFM) IA is a tool for analyzing the historical movement of students between the various fields of study and student levels in an institution and for estimating the future enrollments in each student program (or field of study) and student level combination in…

Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, Mansur Ali; Bao, Shaowu; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

2018-01-01

The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000-1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.

Climate risks on potato yield in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu

2016-04-01

The yield of potatoes is affected by water and temperature during the growing season. We study the impact of a suite of climate variables on potato yield at country level. More than ten climate variables related to the growth of potato are considered, including the seasonal rainfall and temperature, but also extreme conditions at different averaging periods from daily to monthly. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to jointly consider the risk of heat stress, cold stress, wet and drought. Future climate risks are investigated through the projection of future climate data. This study contributes to assess the risks of present and future climate risks on potatoes yield, especially the risks of extreme events, which could be used to guide better sourcing strategy and ensure food security in the future.

Low-dielectric constant insulators for future integrated circuits and packages.

PubMed

Kohl, Paul A

2011-01-01

Future integrated circuits and packages will require extraordinary dielectric materials for interconnects to allow transistor advances to be translated into system-level advances. Exceedingly low-permittivity and low-loss materials are required at every level of the electronic system, from chip-level insulators to packages and printed wiring boards. In this review, the requirements and goals for future insulators are discussed followed by a summary of current state-of-the-art materials and technical approaches. Much work needs to be done for insulating materials and structures to meet future needs.

The Present Projects Past Behavior into the Future while the Past Projects Attitudes into the Future: How Verb Tense Moderates Predictors of Drinking Intentions.

PubMed

Carrera, Pilar; Muñoz, Dolores; Caballero, Amparo; Fernández, Itziar; Albarracín, Dolores

2012-09-01

Three studies examined how the use of the present versus the past tense in recalling a past experience influences behavioral intentions. Experiment 1 revealed a stronger influence of past behaviors on drinking intentions when participants self-reported an episode of excessive drinking using the present tense. Correspondingly, there was a stronger influence of attitudes towards excessive drinking when participants self-reported the episode in the past tense. Experiments 2 and 3 liked this effect to changes in construal level (Liberman, Trope, & Stephan, 2007; Trope & Liberman, 2003), with the present tense being similar to a concrete construal level and the past tense being similar to an abstract construal level.

Future methane emissions from animals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anastasi, C.; Simpson, V.J.

1993-04-20

The authors project future methane emissions from animals to the year 2025. They review the present estimated sources of methane from enteric fermentation in animals. Ruminant animals produce the highest concentrations of methane. Methane is a byproduct of anaerobic breakdown of carbohydrates by microbes in the digestive tract of herbatious animals. In general the methane production depends on the variety of animal, the quality of the feed, and the feeding level. Since cattle, sheep, and buffalo account for roughly 91% of all animal methane emission, they only study these animals in detail. Results suggest a rise in methane production ofmore » roughly 1% per year averaged through 2025. Increasing levels are found to originate from developed countries even though the feedstock levels are lower.« less

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: intersections between memory and decisions.

PubMed

Schacter, Daniel L; Benoit, Roland G; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K

2015-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one's personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one's personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking: Intersections between memory and decisions

PubMed Central

Schacter, Daniel L.; Benoit, Roland G.; De Brigard, Felipe; Szpunar, Karl K.

2014-01-01

This article considers two recent lines of research concerned with the construction of imagined or simulated events that can provide insight into the relationship between memory and decision making. One line of research concerns episodic future thinking, which involves simulating episodes that might occur in one’s personal future, and the other concerns episodic counterfactual thinking, which involves simulating episodes that could have happened in one’s personal past. We first review neuroimaging studies that have examined the neural underpinnings of episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking. We argue that these studies have revealed that the two forms of episodic simulation engage a common core network including medial parietal, prefrontal, and temporal regions that also supports episodic memory. We also note that neuroimaging studies have documented neural differences between episodic future thinking and episodic counterfactual thinking, including differences in hippocampal responses. We next consider behavioral studies that have delineated both similarities and differences between the two kinds of episodic simulation. The evidence indicates that episodic future and counterfactual thinking are characterized by similarly reduced levels of specific detail compared with episodic memory, but that the effects of repeatedly imagining a possible experience have sharply contrasting effects on the perceived plausibility of those events during episodic future thinking versus episodic counterfactual thinking. Finally, we conclude by discussing the functional consequences of future and counterfactual simulations for decisions. PMID:24373942

As we fall asleep we forget about the future: A quantitative linguistic analysis of mentation reports from hypnagogia.

PubMed

Speth, Jana; Schloerscheidt, Astrid M; Speth, Clemens

2016-10-01

We present a quantitative study of mental time travel to the past and future in sleep onset hypnagogia. Three independent, blind judges analysed a total of 150 mentation reports from different intervals prior to and after sleep onset. The linguistic tool for the mentation report analysis grounds on established grammatical and cognitive-semantic theories, and proof of concept has been provided in previous studies. The current results indicate that memory for the future, but not for the past, decreases in sleep onset - thereby supporting preliminary physiological evidence at the level of brain function. While recent memory research emphasizes similarities in the cognitive and physiological processes of mental time travel to the past and future, the current study explores a state of consciousness which may serve to dissociate between the two. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

2014-12-01

Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bishofberger, Kip A.

Within Building 19 of TA-53, a screen room has been evaluated for use as a reverb chamber (with deep gratitude to Dale Dalmas and Greg Dale for their assistance). With minimal additional sealing of the chamber, we expect the Q to increase even more, and thus field levels for the same RF source power. Future studies need to determine leakage field levels, which will define maximum achievable field levels.

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin M.; Palchak, Joseph D; McBennett, Brendan

The higher-spatial-resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.' The Regional Study validates the relative value of mitigation strategies demonstrated in the National Study - namely, coordinatedmore » operations among states reduce production costs, and reducing coal minimum generation levels reduces RE curtailment. Significantly, the Regional Study also highlights a potential barrier to realizing the value of these mitigation strategies: when locations of RE development are planned independently of state-level transmission, intrastate congestion can result in undesirable levels of RE curtailment. Therefore a key objective of this study is to illustrate to state-level power system planners and operators, in particular, how a higher-resolution model, inclusive of intrastate granularity, can be used as a planning tool for two primary purposes: -To better anticipate, understand, and mitigate system constraints that could affect RE integration; and - To provide a modeling framework that can be used as part of future transmission studies and planning efforts. The Regional Study is not intended to predict precisely how RE will affect state-level operations. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the locations of the RE development, as well as how contract terms can affect access to the inherent physical flexibility of the system. But the scenarios analyzed identify the types of issues that can arise under various RE and transmission expansion pathways. The model developed for this study provides a rigorous framework for future work and can be updated with the characteristics of new capacity as more information on the future power system is known.« less

Specialist English as a foreign language for European public health: evaluation of competencies and needs among Polish and Lithuanian students.

PubMed

Sumskas, Linas; Czabanowska, Katarzyna; Bruneviciūte, Raimonda; Kregzdyte, Rima; Krikstaponyte, Zita; Ziomkiewicz, Anna

2010-01-01

Foreign languages are becoming an essential prerequisite for a successful carrier among all professions including public health professionals in many countries. The expanding role of English as a mode of communication allows for university graduates to project and to seek their career in English-speaking countries. The present study was carried out in the framework of EU Leonardo da Vinci project "Specialist English as a foreign language for European public health." The study aimed to get a deeper insight how the English language is perceived as a foreign language, by Polish and Lithuanian public health students, what is level of their language competence, which level of English proficiency they expect to use in future. MATERIAL AND METHODS. A total of 246 respondents completed the special questionnaires in autumn semester in 2005. A questionnaire form was developed by the international project team. For evaluation of English competences, the Language Passport (Common European Framework of Reference for Languages of Council of Europe) was applied. RESULTS. Current self-rated proficiency of the English language was at the same level for Lithuanian (3.47+/-1.14) and Polish (3.31+/-0.83) respondents (P>0.05). Majority of respondents (88.6% of Lithuanian and 87.8% of Polish) reported using the English language for their current studies. Respondents reported a significant increase in necessity for higher level of English proficiency in future: mean scores provided by respondents changed from B1 level to B2 level. Respondents gave priority to less formal and practice-based interactive English teaching methods (going abroad, contacts with native speakers) in comparison with theory-oriented methods of learning (self-studying, Internet courses). CONCLUSIONS. Similar levels of English language in all five areas of language skills were established in Polish and Lithuanian university students. Respondents gave more priorities to less formal and practice-based interactive English teaching methods (going abroad, contacts with native speakers) in comparison with theory-oriented or classroom-based methods of learning (self-studying, Internet courses). Survey showed a growing interest of students in improving English language in the future in Poland and Lithuania.

Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

Assessing future expectations and the two-dimensional model of affect in an Italian population.

PubMed

Corno, Giulia; Molinari, Guadalupe; Baños, Rosa Maria

2017-03-01

Future-directed thinking has been described as part of two underlying systems that integrate dimensions of affect, motivational systems, orientation to the future, and future expectations, which are initiated at the cognitive, affective, biological, behavioral, and motivational levels. The main aim of the present study is to test the two underlying frameworks model and explore future expectations in a general Italian-speaking population (N=345). Therefore, the second aim of the present paper is to confirm the factorial structure of the Subjective Probability Task (SPT; MacLeod et al., 1996), a questionnaire designed to assess specific positive and negative orientations towards the future. Results showed that the SPT has good psychometric properties and it is a reliable instrument to assess future-directed thinking. Moreover, our findings confirmed the role of future expectancies as cognitive correlates of depression and anxiety. Differently from previous studies (Clark and Watson, 1991; MacLeod et al., 1996), our results did not confirm that depression was characterized by low positive affect. We believe this paper contributes to the understanding of future expectancies and their relation with anxiety and depression, and will help to expand the availability of an instrument to assess future directed thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leader Narcissism and Outcomes in Organizations: A Review at Multiple Levels of Analysis and Implications for Future Research

PubMed Central

Braun, Susanne

2017-01-01

Narcissists often pursue leadership and are selected for leadership positions by others. At the same time, they act in their own best interest, putting the needs and interests of others at risk. While theoretical arguments clearly link narcissism and leadership, the question whether leader narcissism is good or bad for organizations and their members remains unanswered. Narcissism seems to have two sides, a bright and a dark one. This systematic literature review seeks to contribute to the ongoing academic discussion about the positive or negative impact of leader narcissism in organizations. Forty-five original research articles were categorized according to outcomes at three levels of analysis: the dyadic level (focusing on leader-follower relationships), the team level (focusing on work teams and small groups), and the organizational level. On this basis, we first summarized the current state of knowledge about the impact that leader narcissism has on outcomes at different levels of analysis. Next, we revealed similarities and contradictions between research findings within and across levels of analysis, highlighting persistent inconsistencies concerning the question whether leader narcissism has positive or negative consequences. Finally, we outlined theoretical and methodological implications for future studies of leader narcissism. This multi-level perspective ascertains a new, systematic view of leader narcissism and its consequences for organizations and their stakeholders. The article demonstrates the need for future research in the field of leader narcissism and opens up new avenues for inquiry. PMID:28579967

Leader Narcissism and Outcomes in Organizations: A Review at Multiple Levels of Analysis and Implications for Future Research.

PubMed

Braun, Susanne

2017-01-01

Narcissists often pursue leadership and are selected for leadership positions by others. At the same time, they act in their own best interest, putting the needs and interests of others at risk. While theoretical arguments clearly link narcissism and leadership, the question whether leader narcissism is good or bad for organizations and their members remains unanswered. Narcissism seems to have two sides, a bright and a dark one. This systematic literature review seeks to contribute to the ongoing academic discussion about the positive or negative impact of leader narcissism in organizations. Forty-five original research articles were categorized according to outcomes at three levels of analysis: the dyadic level (focusing on leader-follower relationships), the team level (focusing on work teams and small groups), and the organizational level. On this basis, we first summarized the current state of knowledge about the impact that leader narcissism has on outcomes at different levels of analysis. Next, we revealed similarities and contradictions between research findings within and across levels of analysis, highlighting persistent inconsistencies concerning the question whether leader narcissism has positive or negative consequences. Finally, we outlined theoretical and methodological implications for future studies of leader narcissism. This multi-level perspective ascertains a new, systematic view of leader narcissism and its consequences for organizations and their stakeholders. The article demonstrates the need for future research in the field of leader narcissism and opens up new avenues for inquiry.

Strategic thinking and its related factors in a medical science university in Iran

PubMed Central

Salavati, Sedigheh; Veshareh, Effat Jahanbani; Safari, Hossein; Veysian, Amir; Amirnezhad, Ghanbar

2017-01-01

Background Having strategic thinking is necessary in order to anticipate future changes and make strategic decisions. This study was carried out to assess the strategic thinking level in managers and personnel of Ahvaz Jundishapour University of Medical Science (AJUMS) - a public university in Iran. Methods It was a cross-sectional and analytical study and all managers (50) as well as a sample of personnel (200) from AJUMS participated in it. A researcher-made questionnaire was used in order to measure four dimensions of strategic thinking, including system thinking, futurism, conceptual thinking, and intelligent opportunism along with demographic and organizational characteristics of respondents. Statistical analysis was done by Freedman ranking test, one-way ANOVA, and Independent-samples t-test in SPSS software version 16. Results Strategic thinking in managers (5.62±0.51) and personnel (5.22±0.4), was evaluated at a somewhat high level. The maximum score among strategic thinking dimensions in managers (5.62±0.42) and personnel (5.52±0.43) was related to conceptual thinking that was in “good” level. A significant relationship was seen between intelligent opportunism dimension with job location in managers and education degree in personnel (p≤0.005). Also, there was a significant relationship between future dimension in managers and personnel with education degrees (p≤0.005). There was a significant difference between managers and employees in future dimension (p=0.018). Conclusion It seems that the participants have acceptable strategic thinking levels, although there is still room for improvement. Therefore, considering the factors such as educational development of managers and personnel can be very useful in this regard. PMID:28713504

Ghrelin, Leptin, Adiponectin, and Insulin Levels and Concurrent and Future Weight Change in Overweight Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Soni, Amy C.; Conroy, Molly B.; Mackey, Rachel H.; Kuller, Lewis H.

2010-01-01

Objective Weight loss and maintenance can be particularly challenging for postmenopausal women given the changes in body composition, metabolism, and lifestyle that can accompany the menopausal transition. Peptides mediating energy homeostasis (i.e., ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin) may play an important role in the weight and body composition changes of postmenopausal women, and may in turn be affected by hormone therapy (HT) use. This study examines how success with weight loss may be related to peptides mediating energy homeostasis and HT use. Methods The present analysis involves 200 women from a lifestyle intervention trial in overweight, postmenopausal women for whom data on the peptides ghrelin, leptin, adiponectin, and insulin were collected at 0 and 18 months. Peptide levels were compared to changes in weight from 0-18 and18-30 months. Results Baseline peptide levels were not significantly related to future weight change. From 0-18 months, ghrelin (p=0.0005) and adiponectin (p=<0.0001) levels increased, while leptin (p=<0.0001), and insulin (p=0.0003) decreased with increasing amount of weight loss. However, only leptin change was related to 18-30 month weight change. Women who were on HT at 0 months but discontinued by 18 months had a greater increase in ghrelin from 0-18 months compared to women with continuous HT use or non-use. Conclusions In overweight, postmenopausal women, changes in energy homeostasis peptides relate to both concurrent and future weight change. Future studies should continue to address the how ghrelin, leptin, insulin, and adiponectin contribute to body composition changes and weight loss maintenance after menopause. PMID:21449093

Strategic thinking and its related factors in a medical science university in Iran.

PubMed

Salavati, Sedigheh; Veshareh, Effat Jahanbani; Safari, Hossein; Veysian, Amir; Amirnezhad, Ghanbar

2017-05-01

Having strategic thinking is necessary in order to anticipate future changes and make strategic decisions. This study was carried out to assess the strategic thinking level in managers and personnel of Ahvaz Jundishapour University of Medical Science (AJUMS) - a public university in Iran. It was a cross-sectional and analytical study and all managers (50) as well as a sample of personnel (200) from AJUMS participated in it. A researcher-made questionnaire was used in order to measure four dimensions of strategic thinking, including system thinking, futurism, conceptual thinking, and intelligent opportunism along with demographic and organizational characteristics of respondents. Statistical analysis was done by Freedman ranking test, one-way ANOVA, and Independent-samples t-test in SPSS software version 16. Strategic thinking in managers (5.62±0.51) and personnel (5.22±0.4), was evaluated at a somewhat high level. The maximum score among strategic thinking dimensions in managers (5.62±0.42) and personnel (5.52±0.43) was related to conceptual thinking that was in "good" level. A significant relationship was seen between intelligent opportunism dimension with job location in managers and education degree in personnel (p≤0.005). Also, there was a significant relationship between future dimension in managers and personnel with education degrees (p≤0.005). There was a significant difference between managers and employees in future dimension (p=0.018). It seems that the participants have acceptable strategic thinking levels, although there is still room for improvement. Therefore, considering the factors such as educational development of managers and personnel can be very useful in this regard.

Flight program language requirements. Volume 3: Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

Government-sponsored study and development efforts were directed toward design and implementation of high level programming languages suitable for future aerospace applications. The study centered around an evaluation of the four most pertinent existing aerospace languages. Evaluation criteria were established, and selected kernels from the current Saturn 5 and Skylab flight programs were used as benchmark problems for sample coding. An independent review of the language specifications incorporated anticipated future programming requirements into the evaluation. A set of language requirements was synthesized from these activities.

Greening the Grid: Integrating 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid - A Detailed Look at the Southern Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin M

The higher-spatial-resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.' The Regional Study validates the relative value of mitigation strategies demonstrated in the National Study - namely, coordinatedmore » operations among states reduce production costs, and reducing coal minimum generation levels reduces RE curtailment. Significantly, the Regional Study also highlights a potential barrier to realizing the value of these mitigation strategies: when locations of RE development are planned independently of state-level transmission, intrastate congestion can result in undesirable levels of RE curtailment. Therefore a key objective of this study is to illustrate to state-level power system planners and operators, in particular, how a higher-resolution model, inclusive of intrastate granularity, can be used as a planning tool for two primary purposes: to better anticipate, understand, and mitigate system constraints that could affect RE integration; and to provide a modeling framework that can be used as part of future transmission studies and planning efforts. The Regional Study is not intended to predict precisely how RE will affect state-level operations. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the locations of the RE development, as well as how contract terms can affect access to the inherent physical flexibility of the system. But the scenarios analyzed identify the types of issues that can arise under various RE and transmission expansion pathways. The model developed for this study provides a rigorous framework for future work and can be updated with the characteristics of new capacity as more information on the future power system is known.« less

Greening the Grid: Integrating 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid - A Detailed Look at the Western Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin

The higher-spatial-resolution model of 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. II - Regional Study' (the Regional Study), which better represents the impact of congestion on least-cost scheduling and dispatch, provides a deeper understanding of the relationship among renewable energy (RE) location, transmission, and system flexibility with regard to RE integration, compared to 'Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I - National Study.' The Regional Study validates the relative value of mitigation strategies demonstrated in the National Study - namely, coordinatedmore » operations among states reduce production costs, and reducing coal minimum generation levels reduces RE curtailment. Significantly, the Regional Study also highlights a potential barrier to realizing the value of these mitigation strategies: when locations of RE development are planned independently of state-level transmission, intrastate congestion can result in undesirable levels of RE curtailment. Therefore a key objective of this study is to illustrate to state-level power system planners and operators, in particular, how a higher-resolution model, inclusive of intrastate granularity, can be used as a planning tool for two primary purposes: -To better anticipate, understand, and mitigate system constraints that could affect RE integration; and - To provide a modeling framework that can be used as part of future transmission studies and planning efforts. The Regional Study is not intended to predict precisely how RE will affect state-level operations. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the locations of the RE development, as well as how contract terms can affect access to the inherent physical flexibility of the system. But the scenarios analyzed identify the types of issues that can arise under various RE and transmission expansion pathways. The model developed for this study provides a rigorous framework for future work and can be updated with the characteristics of new capacity as more information on the future power system is known.« less

Molecular ecology of aquatic communities: Reflections and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zehr, J.P.; Voytek, M.A.

1999-01-01

During the 1980s, many new molecular biology techniques were developed, providing new capabilities for studying the genetics and activities of organisms. Biologists and ecologists saw the promise that these techniques held for studying different aspects of organisms, both in culture and in the natural environment. In less than a decade, these techniques were adopted by a large number of researchers studying many types of organisms in diverse environments. Much of the molecular-level information acquired has been used to address questions of evolution, biogeography, population structure and biodiversity. At this juncture, molecular ecologists are poised to contribute to the study of the fundamental characteristics underlying aquatic community structure. The goal of this overview is to assess where we have been, where we are now and what the future holds for revealing the basis of community structure and function with molecular-level information.

DNA methylation of loci within ABCG1 and PHOSPHO1 in blood DNA is associated with future type 2 diabetes risk.

PubMed

Dayeh, Tasnim; Tuomi, Tiinamaija; Almgren, Peter; Perfilyev, Alexander; Jansson, Per-Anders; de Mello, Vanessa D; Pihlajamäki, Jussi; Vaag, Allan; Groop, Leif; Nilsson, Emma; Ling, Charlotte

2016-07-02

Identification of subjects with a high risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) is fundamental for prevention of the disease. Consequently, it is essential to search for new biomarkers that can improve the prediction of T2D. The aim of this study was to examine whether 5 DNA methylation loci in blood DNA (ABCG1, PHOSPHO1, SOCS3, SREBF1, and TXNIP), recently reported to be associated with T2D, might predict future T2D in subjects from the Botnia prospective study. We also tested if these CpG sites exhibit altered DNA methylation in human pancreatic islets, liver, adipose tissue, and skeletal muscle from diabetic vs. non-diabetic subjects. DNA methylation at the ABCG1 locus cg06500161 in blood DNA was associated with an increased risk for future T2D (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.02-1.16, P-value = 0.007, Q-value = 0.018), while DNA methylation at the PHOSPHO1 locus cg02650017 in blood DNA was associated with a decreased risk for future T2D (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.75-0.95, P-value = 0.006, Q-value = 0.018) after adjustment for age, gender, fasting glucose, and family relation. Furthermore, the level of DNA methylation at the ABCG1 locus cg06500161 in blood DNA correlated positively with BMI, HbA1c, fasting insulin, and triglyceride levels, and was increased in adipose tissue and blood from the diabetic twin among monozygotic twin pairs discordant for T2D. DNA methylation at the PHOSPHO1 locus cg02650017 in blood correlated positively with HDL levels, and was decreased in skeletal muscle from diabetic vs. non-diabetic monozygotic twins. DNA methylation of cg18181703 (SOCS3), cg11024682 (SREBF1), and cg19693031 (TXNIP) was not associated with future T2D risk in subjects from the Botnia prospective study.

Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This report presents an overview of the key findings from the Monitoring the Future 2001 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students. A particular emphasis is placed on recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs. Trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug--which this study has…

Monitoring the Future: National Results on Adolescent Drug Use. Overview of Key Findings, 2002.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor. Inst. for Social Research.

This report presents an overview of the key findings from the Monitoring the Future 2002 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students. A particular emphasis is placed on recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs. Trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug--which this study has…

Holocene key coral species in the Northwest Pacific: indicators of reef formation and reef ecosystem responses to global climate change and anthropogenic stresses in the near future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hongo, Chuki

2012-03-01

The geological record of key coral species that contribute to reef formation and maintenance of reef ecosystems is important for understanding the ecosystem response to global-scale climate change and anthropogenic stresses in the near future. Future responses can be predicted from accumulated data on Holocene reef species identified in drillcore and from data on raised reef terraces. The present study analyzes a dataset based on 27 drillcores, raised reef terraces, and 134 radiocarbon and U-Th ages from reefs of the Northwest Pacific, with the aim of examining the role of key coral species in reef growth and maintenance for reef ecosystem during Holocene sea-level change. The results indicate a latitudinal change in key coral species: arborescent Acropora (Acropora intermedia and Acropora muricata) was the dominant reef builder at reef crests in the tropics, whereas Porites (Porites australiensis, Porites lutea, and Porites lobata) was the dominant contributor to reef growth in the subtropics between 10,000 and 7000 cal. years BP (when the rate of sea-level rise was 10 m/ka). Acropora digitifera, Acropora hyacinthus, Acropora robusta/A. abrotanoides, Isopora palifera, Favia stelligera, and Goniastrea retiformis from the corymbose and tabular Acropora facies were the main key coral species at reef crests between 7000 and 5000 cal. years BP (when the rate of sea-level rise was 5 m/ka) and during the following period of stable sea-level. Massive Porites (P. australiensis, P. lutea, and P. lobata) contributed to reef growth in shallow lagoons during the period of stable sea level. Key coral species from the corymbose and tabular Acropora facies have the potential to build reefs and maintain ecosystems in the near future under a global sea-level rise of 2-6 m/ka, as do key coral species from the arborescent Acropora facies and massive Porites facies, which show vigorous growth and are tolerant to relatively deep-water, low-energy environments. However, these species are likely to experience severe mortality in upcoming decades due to natural and anthropogenic stresses. Consequently, this damage will lead to a collapse in reef formation and the maintenance of reef ecosystems in the near future. This study emphasizes the need for research into the conservation of key coral species.

D-Dimer Levels before HIV Seroconversion Remain Elevated Even after Viral Suppression and Are Associated with an Increased Risk of Non-AIDS Events.

PubMed

Freiberg, Matthew S; Bebu, Ionut; Tracy, Russell; So-Armah, Kaku; Okulicz, Jason; Ganesan, Anuradha; Armstrong, Adam; O'Bryan, Thomas; Rimland, David; Justice, Amy C; Agan, Brian K

2016-01-01

The mechanism underlying the excess risk of non-AIDS diseases among HIV infected people is unclear. HIV associated inflammation/hypercoagulability likely plays a role. While antiretroviral therapy (ART) may return this process to pre-HIV levels, this has not been directly demonstrated. We analyzed data/specimens on 249 HIV+ participants from the US Military HIV Natural History Study, a prospective, multicenter observational cohort of >5600 active duty military personnel and beneficiaries living with HIV. We used stored blood specimens to measure D-dimer and Interleukin-6 (IL-6) at three time points: pre-HIV seroconversion, ≥6 months post-HIV seroconversion but prior to ART initiation, and ≥6 months post-ART with documented HIV viral suppression on two successive evaluations. We evaluated the changes in biomarker levels between time points, and the association between these biomarker changes and future non-AIDS events. During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, there were 28 incident non-AIDS diseases. At ART initiation, the median CD4 count was 361cells/mm3; median duration of documented HIV infection 392 days; median time on ART was 354 days. Adjusted mean percent increase in D-dimer levels from pre-seroconversion to post-ART was 75.1% (95% confidence interval 24.6-148.0, p = 0.002). This increase in D-dimer was associated with a significant 22% increase risk of future non-AIDS events (p = 0.03). Changes in IL-6 levels across time points were small and not associated with future non-AIDS events. In conclusion, ART initiation and HIV viral suppression does not eliminate HIV associated elevation in D-dimer levels. This residual pathology is associated with an increased risk of future non-AIDS diseases.

Future anthropogenic pollutant emissions in a Mediterranean port city with emphasis on the maritime sector emissions - Study of the impact on the city air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Markakis, Konstantinos; Giannaros, Theodoros; Karagiannidis, Athanasios; Melas, Dimitrios

2013-04-01

The aim of this study is the estimation of the future emissions in the area of the large urban center of Thessaloniki (Greece) with emphasis on the emissions originated from the maritime sector within the port area of the city which are presented in detail. In addition, the contribution of the future anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric pollution levels in Thessaloniki focusing on PM levels is studied. A 2km spatial resolution anthropogenic gaseous and particulate matter emission inventory has been compiled for the port city of Thessaloniki for the year 2010 with the anthropogenic emission model MOSESS, developed by Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. MOSESS was used for the estimation of emissions from several emission sources (road transport, central heating, industries, maritime sector etc) while the natural emission model NEMO was implemented for the calculation of dust, sea salt and biogenic emissions. Maritime emissions originated from the various processes inside the area of the port (harbor operations such as stockpiles, loading/unloading operations, machineries etc) as well as from the maritime transport sector including passenger ships, cargo shipping, inland waterways vessels (e.g. pleasure crafts) and fish catching ships. Ship emissions were estimated for the three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by local and national authorities (e.g.Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A.). Pollutant anthropogenic emissions were projected to the year 2020. The emissions from all the anthropogenic sources except for the maritime sector were projected using factors provided by the GAINS model. Future emissions from the maritime activities were estimated on the basis of the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and of the legislation for shipping in the future. Future maritime emissions are determined by the vessels traffic changes as foreseen for the year 2020 by the Port Authority Investment Plan and by the reduction of the sulfur content in fuels used by ships in cruising mode to 0.5% m/m according to a revision of the MARPOL Annex VI. Based on the above, an approximately 60% increase in the future maritime sector PM10 emissions is expected due to the high increase of the traffic of vessels. The impact of future emissions on the air quality of Thessaloniki is examined with the use of the modelling system WRF-CAMx applied with 2km spatial resolution over the study area. Simulations of the modelling system are performed for a summertime (July 2011) and a wintertime (15 November to 15 December 2011) period accounting for present time (scenario A) and future time (scenario B) pollutant emissions. The differences in pollutant levels (mainly PM) between the scenarios examined are presented and discussed.

Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

study, storm surge, tide, waves, wind, atmospheric pressure, and currents were the dominant storm responses computed. The effect of sea level change on...coastal storm hazards and vulnerability nationally (USACE 2015). NACCS goals also included evaluating the effect of future sea level change (SLC) on...the computed high-fidelity responses included storm surge, astronomical tide, waves, wave effects on water levels, storm duration, wind, currents

Contextual influences on participation in community organizing: a multilevel longitudinal study.

PubMed

Christens, Brian D; Speer, Paul W

2011-06-01

This article reports results from a study of contextual influences on participation among people involved in congregation-based community organizing. Data are drawn from 11,538 individual participants in 115 congregations taking part in one of five local organizing initiatives in different cities over a five-year period. Analyses used 3-level longitudinal models with binary indicators of participation/non-participation in group meetings each successive year as the criterion. Time-varying predictors at level-1 included prior participation in group meetings as a control, the types of group meetings that participants attended, the number of face-to-face meetings held between each participant and organizing staff of the local organizing initiatives, and a measure of the involvement of participants' affiliation networks. At level-2, demographic information was collected for a subset of participants (N = 461) and was included in a separate model. Neighborhood compositional characteristics were examined at level-3, including median income, economic heterogeneity, and residential stability. Study results found that characteristics of organizational settings (i.e., types of group meetings attended and frequency of face-to-face contact) predicted future participation in group meetings but that individual and neighborhood-level demographic characteristics were generally not predictive of future participation in community organizing activities.

Improving prospective memory performance with future event simulation in traumatic brain injury patients.

PubMed

Mioni, Giovanna; Bertucci, Erica; Rosato, Antonella; Terrett, Gill; Rendell, Peter G; Zamuner, Massimo; Stablum, Franca

2017-06-01

Previous studies have shown that traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients have difficulties with prospective memory (PM). Considering that PM is closely linked to independent living it is of primary interest to develop strategies that can improve PM performance in TBI patients. This study employed Virtual Week task as a measure of PM, and we included future event simulation to boost PM performance. Study 1 evaluated the efficacy of the strategy and investigated possible practice effects. Twenty-four healthy participants performed Virtual Week in a no strategy condition, and 24 healthy participants performed it in a mixed condition (no strategy - future event simulation). In Study 2, 18 TBI patients completed the mixed condition of Virtual Week and were compared with the 24 healthy controls who undertook the mixed condition of Virtual Week in Study 1. All participants also completed a neuropsychological evaluation to characterize the groups on level of cognitive functioning. Study 1 showed that participants in the future event simulation condition outperformed participants in the no strategy condition, and these results were not attributable to practice effects. Results of Study 2 showed that TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, but that future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. The future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. These studies showed the value of future event simulation strategy in improving PM performance in healthy participants as well as in TBI patients. TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, confirming prospective memory impairment in these patients. Participants in the future event simulation condition out-performed participants in the no strategy condition. Future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. Future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Scenario-based projections of future urban inundation within a coupled hydrodynamic model framework: A case study in Dongguan City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Guo, Shenglian; Liao, Weilin; Zeng, Zhaoyang; Chen, Xiaohong

2017-04-01

One major threat to cities at present is the increased inundation hazards owing to changes in climate and accelerated human activity. Future evolution of urban inundation is still an unsolved issue, given large uncertainties in future environmental conditions within urbanized areas. Developing model techniques and urban inundation projections are essential for inundation management. In this paper, we proposed a 2D hydrodynamic inundation model by coupling SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP models, and revealed how future urban inundation would evolve for different storms, sea level rise and subsidence scenarios based on the developed model. The Shiqiao Creek District (SCD) in Dongguan City was used as the case study. The model ability was validated against the June 13th, 2008 inundation event, which occurred in SCD, and proved capable of simulating dynamic urban inundation. Scenario analyses revealed a high degree of consistency in the inundation patterns among different storms, with larger magnitudes corresponding to greater return periods. Inundations across SCD generally vary as a function of storm intensity, but for lowlands or regions without drainage facilities inundations tend to aggravate over time. In riverfronts, inundations would exacerbate with sea level rise or subsidence; however, the inland inundations are seemingly insensitive to both factors. For the combined scenario of 100-yr storm, 0.5 m subsidence and 0.7 m sea level rise, the riverside inundations would occur much in advance, whilst catastrophic inundations sweep across SCD. Furthermore, the optimal low-impact development found for this case study includes 0.2 km2 of permeable pavements, 0.1 km2 of rain barrels and 0.7 km2 of green roofs.

Hydraulic and Condition Assessment of Existing Sewerage Network: A Case Study of an Educational Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sourabh, Nishant; Timbadiya, P. V.

2018-04-01

The hydraulic simulation of the existing sewerage network provides various information about critical points to assess the deteriorating condition and help in rehabilitation of existing network and future expansion. In the present study, hydraulic and condition assessment of existing network of educational Institute (i.e. Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology-Surat, Gujarat, India), having an area of 100 ha and ground levels in range of 5.0-9.0 m above mean sea level, has been carried out using sewage flow simulation for existing and future scenarios analysis using SewerGEMS v8i. The paper describes the features of 4.79 km long sewerage network of institute followed by network model simulation for aforesaid scenarios and recommendations on improvement of the existing network for future use. The total sewer loads for present and future scenarios are 1.67 million litres per day (MLD) and 3.62 MLD, considering the peak factor of 3 on the basis of population. The hydraulic simulation of the existing scenario indicated depth by diameter (d/D) ratio in the range of 0.02-0.48 and velocity range of 0.08-0.53 m/s for existing network for present scenario. For the future scenario, the existing network is needed to be modified and it was found that total of 11 conduits (length: 464.8 m) should be replaced to the next higher diameter available, i.e., 350 mm for utilization of existing network for future scenario. The present study provides the methodology for condition assessment of existing network and its utilization as per guidelines provided by Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization, 2013. The methodology presented in this paper can be used by municipal/public health engineer for the assessment of existing sewerage network for its serviceability and improvement in future.

Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

Online bargaining and interpersonal trust.

PubMed

Naquin, Charles E; Paulson, Gaylen D

2003-02-01

The presented study explores the effect of interacting over the Internet on interpersonal trust when bargaining online. Relative to face-to-face negotiations, online negotiations were characterized by (a) lower levels of pre-negotiation trust and (b) lower levels of post-negotiation trust. The reduced levels of pre-negotiation trust in online negotiations (i.e., before any interaction took place) demonstrate that negotiators bring different expectations to the electronic bargaining table than to face-to-face negotiations. These negative perceptions of trust were found to mediate another aspect of the relationship, namely, desired future interaction. Those who negotiated online reported less desire for future interactions with the other party. Online negotiators also were less satisfied with their outcome and less confident in the quality of their performance, despite the absence of observable differences in economic outcome quality.

Preliminary design and analysis of an advanced rotorcraft transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henry, Z. S.

1990-01-01

Future rotorcraft transmissions of the 1990s and beyond the year 2000 require the incorporation of key emerging material and component technologies using advanced and innovative design practices in order to meet the requirements for a reduced weight-to-power ratio, a decreased noise level, and a substantially increased reliability. The specific goals for future rotocraft transmissions when compared with current state-of-the-art transmissions are a 25 percent weight reduction, a 10-dB reduction in the transmitted noise level, and a system reliability of 5000 hours mean-time-between-removal for the transmission. This paper presents the results of the design studies conducted to meet the stated goals for an advanced rotorcraft transmission. These design studies include system configuration, planetary gear train selection, and reliability prediction methods.

Perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their future labour market participation - an eight-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Trolle, Nanna; Lund, Thomas; Winding, Trine Nohr; Labriola, Merete

2017-03-31

Labour market participation among young adults is essential for their future socioeconomic status and health. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their labour market participation 8 years later as well as investigate any potential gender differences. A cohort of 1640 young adults born in 1983 completed a questionnaire in 2004 in which perceived stress was measured. The cohort was followed in a register of social benefits for 12 months in 2011-2012 and was categorized into active and passive labour market participation. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between perceived stress and future labour market participation, taking into account effects of potential confounders. The analyses were stratified by gender. The effects of perceived stress on future labour market participation differed significantly among young women and young men (p = 0.029). For young men, higher levels of perceived stress reduced the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for socioeconomic factors, self-rated health and copings strategies (p = 0.045). For young women, higher levels of perceived stress increased the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for the same potential confounding factors, although unlike the men, this association was not statistically significant (p = 0.335). The observed gender difference has important implications from a public health point of view. Healthcare professionals might need to differentiate between the genders in terms of health communication, research and when developing preventive strategies.

Parental Divorce and Family Functioning: Effects on Differentiation Levels of Young Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Patrick; Throngren, Jill M.; Smith, Adina J.

2001-01-01

Study examines the effect of parental divorce and various dimensions of functioning in the family of origin on young adult development. Results indicate that parental divorce and family functioning significantly affect differentiation levels of young adults. Implications of the results for counselors and future researchers are provided. (Contains…

Self-Efficacy Beliefs on Integrating Sustainability into Profession and Daily Life: In the Words of University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demirci, Sinem; Teksöz, Gaye

2017-01-01

Integrating sustainable development into higher education is essential to reach a sustainable future; accompanied with level of knowledge, increasing level of motivation of university students is also crucial since motivation affects their ways of sustainable behaviour. Therefore, this study aimed to explore university students' reflections about…

Mentoring Functions and Job Satisfaction of Community College Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Shannon L.

2013-01-01

The purpose of the study was to examine the mentoring functions of career support and psychosocial support and perceived levels of overall job satisfaction of executive-level community college administrators employed by community colleges in the nine mega-states. This research can guide future research on mentoring functions and job satisfaction…

Does Educational Level Matter in Adopting Online Education? A Malaysian Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haghshenas, Hanif; Chatroudi, Ehsan Aminaei; Njeje, Fredy Anthony

2012-01-01

Having applied Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) to predict intention and future usage behavior, the moderating effect of educational level was added to the model in moderating the relationship between variables. Also, despite past studies, Effort Expectancy had a higher beta than Performance Expectancy, while Social…

Atmospheric Transference of the Toxic Burden of Atmosphere-Surface Exchangeable Pollutants to the Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, A.; Perlinger, J. A.; Giang, A.; Zhang, H.; Selin, N. E.; Wu, S.

2016-12-01

Toxic pollutants that share certain chemical properties undergo repeated emission and deposition between Earth's surfaces and the atmosphere. Following their emission through anthropogenic activities, they are transported locally, regionally or globally through the atmosphere, are deposited, and impact local ecosystems, in some cases as a result of bioaccumulation in food webs. We call them atmosphere-surface exchangeable pollutants or "ASEPs", wherein this group is comprised of thousands of chemicals. We are studying potential future contamination in the Great Lakes region by modeling scenarios of the future for three compounds/compound classes, mercury, polychlorinated biphenyl compounds, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. In this presentation we focus on mercury and future scenarios of contamination of the Great Lake region. The atmospheric transport of mercury under specific scenarios will be discussed. The global 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem has been applied to estimate future atmospheric concentrations and deposition rates of mercury in the Great Lakes region for selected future scenarios of emissions and climate. We find that, assuming no changes in climate, annual mean net deposition flux of mercury to the Great Lakes Region may increase by approximately 50% over 2005 levels by 2050, without global or regional policies addressing mercury, air pollution, and climate. In contrast, we project that the combination of global and North American action on mercury could lead to a 21% reduction in deposition from 2005 levels by 2050. US action alone results in a projected 18% reduction over 2005 levels by 2050. We also find that, assuming no changes in anthropogenic emissions, climate change and biomass burning emissions would, respectively, cause annual mean net deposition flux of mercury to the Great Lakes Region to increase by approximately 5% and decrease by approximately 2% over 2000 levels by 2050.

Effects of sources of variability on sample sizes required for RCTs, applied to trials of lipid-altering therapies on carotid artery intima-media thickness.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Koglin, Joerg; Bain, Raymond P; Pinto, Cathy-Anne; Mitchel, Yale B; Pasternak, Richard C; Sapre, Aditi

2009-08-01

Studies measuring progression of carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) have been used to estimate the effect of lipid-modifying therapies cardiovascular event risk. The likelihood that future cIMT clinical trials will detect a true treatment effect is estimated by leveraging results from prior studies. The present analyses assess the impact of between- and within-study variability based on currently published data from prior clinical studies on the likelihood that ongoing or future cIMT trials will detect the true treatment effect of lipid-modifying therapies. Published data from six contemporary cIMT studies (ASAP, ARBITER 2, RADIANCE 1, RADIANCE 2, ENHANCE, and METEOR) including data from a total of 3563 patients were examined. Bayesian and frequentist methods were used to assess the impact of between study variability on the likelihood of detecting true treatment effects on 1-year cIMT progression/regression and to provide a sample size estimate that would specifically compensate for the effect of between-study variability. In addition to the well-described within-study variability, there is considerable between-study variability associated with the measurement of annualized change in cIMT. Accounting for the additional between-study variability decreases the power for existing study designs. In order to account for the added between-study variability, it is likely that future cIMT studies would require a large increase in sample size in order to provide substantial probability (> or =90%) to have 90% power of detecting a true treatment effect.Limitation Analyses are based on study level data. Future meta-analyses incorporating patient-level data would be useful for confirmation. Due to substantial within- and between-study variability in the measure of 1-year change of cIMT, as well as uncertainty about progression rates in contemporary populations, future study designs evaluating the effect of new lipid-modifying therapies on atherosclerotic disease progression are likely to be challenged by large sample sizes in order to demonstrate a true treatment effect.

Analysis of Compound Water Hazard in Coastal Urbanized Areas under the Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibuo, Y.; Taniguchi, K.; Sanuki, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Lee, S.; Tajima, Y.; Koike, T.; Furumai, H.; Sato, S.

2017-12-01

Several studies indicate the increased frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfalls as well as the sea level rise under the future climate, which implies that coastal low-lying urbanized areas may experience increased risk against flooding. In such areas, where river discharge, tidal fluctuation, and city drainage networks altogether influence urban inundation, it is necessary to consider their potential interference to understand the effect of compound water hazard. For instance, pump stations cannot pump out storm water when the river water level is high, and in the meantime the river water level shall increase when it receives pumped water from cities. At the further downstream, as the tidal fluctuation regulates the water levels in the river, it will also affect the functionality of pump stations and possible inundation from rivers. In this study, we estimate compound water hazard in the coastal low-lying urbanized areas of the Tsurumi river basin under the future climate. We developed the seamlessly integrated river, sewerage, and coastal hydraulic model that can simulate river water levels, water flow in sewerage network, and inundation from the rivers and/or the coast to address the potential interference issue. As a forcing, the pseudo global warming method, which applies the changes in GCM anomaly to re-analysis data, is employed to produce ensemble typhoons to drive the seamlessly integrated model. The results show that heavy rainfalls caused by the observed typhoon generally become stronger under the pseudo global climate condition. It also suggests that the coastal low-lying areas become extensively inundated if the onset of river flooding and storm surge coincides.

"Hoping to see the future I prefer": an element of life-world for older women living alone.

PubMed

Porter, Eileen J; Oyesanya, Tolu O; Johnson, Kathy A

2013-01-01

We interact with Dorcy's earlier work in Advances in Nursing Science on hope, noting that scholars have emphasized hope in suffering rather than exploring hoping in everyday life. We did a secondary analysis of 4 descriptive phenomenological studies with older women (N = 81, aged 75-98). Findings included a 4-level taxonomy of life-world. Four future-related subelements (such as, having a future I cannot see, down the road) intersected with the element hoping to see the future I prefer. Five of its subelements were common across the sample, including hoping that I do not get to that point. Findings have implications for expanding scholarship pertaining to hoping.

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

The AGE-RAGE axis in an Arab population: The United Arab Emirates Healthy Futures (UAEHFS) pilot study.

PubMed

Inman, Claire K; Aljunaibi, Abdullah; Koh, Hyunwook; Abdulle, Abdishakur; Ali, Raghib; Alnaeemi, Abdullah; Al Zaabi, Eiman; Oumeziane, Naima; Al Bastaki, Marina; Al-Houqani, Mohammed; Al-Maskari, Fatma; Al Dhaheri, Ayesha; Shah, Syed M; Abdel Wareth, Laila; Al Mahmeed, Wael; Alsafar, Habiba; Al Anouti, Fatme; Al Hosani, Ayesha; Haji, Muna; Galani, Divya; O'Connor, Matthew J; Ahn, Jiyoung; Kirchhoff, Tomas; Sherman, Scott; Hayes, Richard B; Li, Huilin; Ramasamy, Ravichandran; Schmidt, Ann Marie

2017-12-01

The transformation of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from a semi-nomadic to a high income society has been accompanied by increasing rates of obesity and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. We examined if the AGE-RAGE (receptor for advanced glycation endproducts) axis is associated with obesity and diabetes mellitus in the pilot phase of the UAE Healthy Futures Study (UAEHFS). 517 Emirati subjects were enrolled and plasma/serum levels of AGE, carboxy methyl lysine (CML)-AGE, soluble (s)RAGE and endogenous secretory (es)RAGE were measured along with weight, height, waist and hip circumference (WC/HC), blood pressure, HbA1c, Vitamin D levels and routine chemistries. The relationship between the AGE-RAGE axis and obesity and diabetes mellitus was tested using proportional odds models and linear regression. After covariate adjustment, AGE levels were significantly associated with diabetes status. Levels of sRAGE and esRAGE were associated with BMI and levels of sRAGE were associated with WC/HC. The AGE-RAGE axis is associated with diabetes status and obesity in this Arab population. Prospective serial analysis of this axis may identify predictive biomarkers of obesity and cardiometabolic dysfunction in the UAEHFS.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

Prosocial behavior: multilevel perspectives.

PubMed

Penner, Louis A; Dovidio, John F; Piliavin, Jane A; Schroeder, David A

2005-01-01

Current research on prosocial behavior covers a broad and diverse range of phenomena. We argue that this large research literature can be best organized and understood from a multilevel perspective. We identify three levels of analysis of prosocial behavior: (a) the "meso" level--the study of helper-recipient dyads in the context of a specific situation; (b) the micro level--the study of the origins of prosocial tendencies and the sources of variation in these tendencies; and (c) the macro level--the study of prosocial actions that occur within the context of groups and large organizations. We present research at each level and discuss similarities and differences across levels. Finally, we consider ways in which theory and research at these three levels of analysis might be combined in future intra- and interdisciplinary research on prosocial behavior.

Long-term financing needs for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015–2050: a modelling study

PubMed Central

Atun, Rifat; Chang, Angela Y; Ogbuoji, Osondu; Silva, Sachin; Resch, Stephen; Hontelez, Jan; Bärnighausen, Till

2016-01-01

Objectives To estimate the present value of current and future funding needed for HIV treatment and prevention in 9 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries that account for 70% of HIV burden in Africa under different scenarios of intervention scale-up. To analyse the gaps between current expenditures and funding obligation, and discuss the policy implications of future financing needs. Design We used the Goals module from Spectrum, and applied the most up-to-date cost and coverage data to provide a range of estimates for future financing obligations. The four different scale-up scenarios vary by treatment initiation threshold and service coverage level. We compared the model projections to current domestic and international financial sources available in selected SSA countries. Results In the 9 SSA countries, the estimated resources required for HIV prevention and treatment in 2015–2050 range from US$98 billion to maintain current coverage levels for treatment and prevention with eligibility for treatment initiation at CD4 count of <500/mm3 to US$261 billion if treatment were to be extended to all HIV-positive individuals and prevention scaled up. With the addition of new funding obligations for HIV—which arise implicitly through commitment to achieve higher than current treatment coverage levels—overall financial obligations (sum of debt levels and the present value of the stock of future HIV funding obligations) would rise substantially. Conclusions Investing upfront in scale-up of HIV services to achieve high coverage levels will reduce HIV incidence, prevention and future treatment expenditures by realising long-term preventive effects of ART to reduce HIV transmission. Future obligations are too substantial for most SSA countries to be met from domestic sources alone. New sources of funding, in addition to domestic sources, include innovative financing. Debt sustainability for sustained HIV response is an urgent imperative for affected countries and donors. PMID:26948960

The Effects of Parents' Employment Status and Financial Security on the Cognitive Home Environment and on Expectations for Their Children's Futures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harold-Goldsmith, Rena

A study undertaken in 1983-85 examined the effects of job loss and financial stress on the cognitive stimulation provided for children in the home and parents' confidence regarding their children's future. Effects of parents' educational level were also considered. It was hypothesized that when parents were unemployed, or had a grim view of the…

Long-term financing needs for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015-2050: a modelling study.

PubMed

Atun, Rifat; Chang, Angela Y; Ogbuoji, Osondu; Silva, Sachin; Resch, Stephen; Hontelez, Jan; Bärnighausen, Till

2016-03-06

To estimate the present value of current and future funding needed for HIV treatment and prevention in 9 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries that account for 70% of HIV burden in Africa under different scenarios of intervention scale-up. To analyse the gaps between current expenditures and funding obligation, and discuss the policy implications of future financing needs. We used the Goals module from Spectrum, and applied the most up-to-date cost and coverage data to provide a range of estimates for future financing obligations. The four different scale-up scenarios vary by treatment initiation threshold and service coverage level. We compared the model projections to current domestic and international financial sources available in selected SSA countries. In the 9 SSA countries, the estimated resources required for HIV prevention and treatment in 2015-2050 range from US$98 billion to maintain current coverage levels for treatment and prevention with eligibility for treatment initiation at CD4 count of <500/mm(3) to US$261 billion if treatment were to be extended to all HIV-positive individuals and prevention scaled up. With the addition of new funding obligations for HIV--which arise implicitly through commitment to achieve higher than current treatment coverage levels--overall financial obligations (sum of debt levels and the present value of the stock of future HIV funding obligations) would rise substantially. Investing upfront in scale-up of HIV services to achieve high coverage levels will reduce HIV incidence, prevention and future treatment expenditures by realising long-term preventive effects of ART to reduce HIV transmission. Future obligations are too substantial for most SSA countries to be met from domestic sources alone. New sources of funding, in addition to domestic sources, include innovative financing. Debt sustainability for sustained HIV response is an urgent imperative for affected countries and donors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Friendship Satisfaction in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder and Nominated Friends.

PubMed

Petrina, Neysa; Carter, Mark; Stephenson, Jennifer; Sweller, Naomi

2017-02-01

The current study examined the level of friendship satisfaction of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and their nominated friends (with and without diagnosis of ASD). A total of 77 target children with ASD and friends from 49 nominated friendships participated in the study. Relatively high levels of friendship satisfaction were reported by both target children and their nominated friends with no overall difference between dyads involving typically developing friends and friends with ASD. Analysis at the individual dyad level showed a high level of agreement on the reported level of satisfaction across the target participants and their friends. Limitations and directions for future research are presented.

Emerging adults' perspectives on their relationships with mothers with mental illness: implications for caregiving.

PubMed

Abraham, Kristen M; Stein, Catherine H

2012-10-01

Guided by a life course perspective, the current study examined whether emerging adults with and without mothers with affective disorders viewed their relationships with their mothers differently, and whether aspects of the emerging adult-mother relationship were associated with reports of caregiving for mothers. Reports from emerging adults with mothers with affective disorders (n = 46) were compared to reports from emerging adults with mothers without mental illness (n = 64). Results indicated that emerging adults with mothers with affective disorders reported significantly lower levels of affection, felt obligation, reciprocity, and future caregiving intentions, and significantly higher levels of role reversal in their relationships with their mothers. Reported current caregiving levels did not differ between emerging adults with and without mothers with affective disorders. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses generally indicated higher levels of felt obligation were associated with higher levels of caregiving, regardless of maternal mental health status. Results and future research directions are discussed from a life course perspective. © 2012 American Orthopsychiatric Association.

An Examination of Exercise-Induced Feeling States and Their Association With Future Participation in Physical Activity Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Brunet, Jennifer; Guérin, Eva; Speranzini, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Although exercise-induced feeling states may play a role in driving future behavior, their role in relation to older adults' participation in physical activity (PA) has seldom been considered. The objectives of this study were to describe changes in older adults' feeling states during exercise, and examine if levels of and changes in feeling states predicted their future participation in PA. Self-reported data on feeling states were collected from 82 older adults immediately before, during, and after a moderate-intensity exercise session, and on participation in PA 1 month later. Data were analyzed using latent growth modeling. Feelings of revitalization, positive engagement, and tranquility decreased during exercise, whereas feelings of physical exhaustion increased. Feelings of revitalization immediately before the exercise session predicted future participation in PA; changes in feeling states did not. This study does not provide empirical evidence that older adults' exercise-induced feeling states predict their future participation in PA.

Impacts of climate-change-driven sea level rise on intertidal rocky reef habitats will be variable and site specific.

PubMed

Thorner, Jaqueline; Kumar, Lalit; Smith, Stephen D A

2014-01-01

Intertidal rocky reefs are complex and rich ecosystems that are vulnerable to even the smallest fluctuations in sea level. We modelled habitat loss associated with sea level rise for intertidal rocky reefs using GIS, high-resolution digital imagery, and LIDAR technology at fine-scale resolution (0.1 m per pixel). We used projected sea levels of +0.3 m, +0.5 m and +1.0 m above current Mean Low Tide Level (0.4 m). Habitat loss and changes were analysed for each scenario for five headlands in the Solitary Islands Marine Park (SIMP), Australia. The results indicate that changes to habitat extent will be variable across different shores and will not necessarily result in net loss of area for some habitats. In addition, habitat modification will not follow a regular pattern over the projected sea levels. Two of the headlands included in the study currently have the maximum level of protection within the SIMP. However, these headlands are likely to lose much of the habitat known to support biodiverse assemblages and may not continue to be suitable sanctuaries into the future. The fine-scale approach taken in this study thus provides a protocol not only for modelling habitat modification but also for future proofing conservation measures under a scenario of changing sea levels.

Applying downscaled Global Climate Model data to a groundwater model of the Suwannee River Basin, Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Davis, J. Hal

2016-01-01

The higher future rainfall causes simulated groundwater levels to rise in areas where they are deep and have little ET in either the recent or future case. However, in areas where groundwater levels were originally near the surface, the greater future ET causes groundwater levels to become lower despite the higher projected rainfall. The general implication is that unsaturated zone depth could be more spatially uniform in the future and vegetation that requires a range of conditions (substantially wetter or drier than aver¬age) could be detrimentally affected. This vegetation would include wetland species, especially in areas inland from the coast.

Economics of ion propulsion for large space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masek, T. D.; Ward, J. W.; Rawlin, V. K.

1978-01-01

This study of advanced electrostatic ion thrusters for space propulsion was initiated to determine the suitability of the baseline 30-cm thruster for future missions and to identify other thruster concepts that would better satisfy mission requirements. The general scope of the study was to review mission requirements, select thruster designs to meet these requirements, assess the associated thruster technology requirements, and recommend short- and long-term technology directions that would support future thruster needs. Preliminary design concepts for several advanced thrusters were developed to assess the potential practical difficulties of a new design. This study produced useful general methodologies for assessing both planetary and earth orbit missions. For planetary missions, the assessment is in terms of payload performance as a function of propulsion system technology level. For earth orbit missions, the assessment is made on the basis of cost (cost sensitivity to propulsion system technology level).

Investigating Factors that Generate and Maintain Variation in Migratory Orientation: A Primer for Recent and Future Work.

PubMed

Delmore, Kira E; Liedvogel, Miriam

2016-01-01

The amazing accuracy of migratory orientation performance across the animal kingdom is facilitated by the use of magnetic and celestial compass systems that provide individuals with both directional and positional information. Quantitative genetics analyses in several animal systems suggests that migratory orientation has a strong genetic component. Nevertheless, the exact identity of genes controlling orientation remains largely unknown, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of this fascinating behavior on the molecular level. Here, we provide an overview of molecular genetic techniques employed thus far, highlight the pros and cons of various approaches, generalize results from species-specific studies whenever possible, and evaluate how far the field has come since early quantitative genetics studies. We emphasize the importance of examining different levels of molecular control, and outline how future studies can take advantage of high-resolution tracking and sequencing techniques to characterize the genomic architecture of migratory orientation.

Understanding the ecology of child maltreatment: a review of the literature and directions for future research.

PubMed

Freisthler, Bridget; Merritt, Darcey H; LaScala, Elizabeth A

2006-08-01

Studies examining neighborhood characteristics in relation to social problems, including child maltreatment, have proliferated in the past 25 years. This article reviews the current state of knowledge of ecological studies of child maltreatment. Taken as a whole, these 18 studies document a stable ecological relationship among neighborhood impoverishment, housing stress, and rates of child maltreatment, as well as some evidence that unemployment, child care burden, and alcohol availability may contribute to child abuse and neglect. The authors include a discussion of methodological difficulties in conducting research at the neighborhood level and present a set of recommendations for future research that emphasizes movement from a simple examination of neighborhood-level characteristics toward a theoretically driven explication of processes and mechanisms supported by appropriate multilevel modeling techniques. The final goal of such efforts would be to enable practitioners to develop evidence-based neighborhood interventions that would prevent and reduce child abuse and neglect.

Body fluid levels of neuroactive amino acids in autism spectrum disorders: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Zheng, Hui-Fei; Wang, Wen-Qiang; Li, Xin-Min; Rauw, Gail; Baker, Glen B

2017-01-01

A review of studies on the body fluid levels of neuroactive amino acids, including glutamate, glutamine, taurine, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), glycine, tryptophan, D-serine, and others, in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is given. The results reported in the literature are generally inconclusive and contradictory, but there has been considerable variation among the previous studies in terms of factors such as age, gender, number of subjects, intelligence quotient, and psychoactive medication being taken. Future studies should include simultaneous analyses of a large number of amino acids [including D-serine and branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs)] and standardization of the factors mentioned above. It may also be appropriate to use saliva sampling to detect amino acids in ASD patients in the future-this is noninvasive testing that can be done easily more frequently than other sampling, thus providing more dynamic monitoring.

A happier and less sinister past, a more hedonistic and less fatalistic present and a more structured future: time perspective and well-being.

PubMed

Sailer, Uta; Rosenberg, Patricia; Nima, Ali Al; Gamble, Amelie; Gärling, Tommy; Archer, Trevor; Garcia, Danilo

2014-01-01

Background. Previous studies have established a link between how people relate to their past, present, and future (i.e., time perspective) and subjective well-being (i.e., life satisfaction, positive and negative affect). Time perspective comprises five dimensions: Past Positive, Past Negative, Present Hedonistic, Present Fatalistic, and Future. Life satisfaction can also be evaluated in relation to different time frames. Moreover, approach related positive affect is associated to a different concept of well-being labeled psychological well-being. In the present study we extend previous findings by investigating the effect of time perspective on the time frame of evaluations of life satisfaction (past, present, future) and by investigating the relationship between time perspective and psychological well-being. Method. Questionnaires on time perspective (Zimbardo's Time Perspective Inventory), temporal life satisfaction (Temporal Satisfaction with Life Scale), affect (Positive Affect and Negative Affect Schedule), and psychological well-being (Scales of Psychological Well-Being-short version) were answered by 453 individuals. Two different structural equation models were tested, one of the relationship between time perspective and temporal life satisfaction, and the other of the relationship between time perspective, affect and psychological well-being. Results. Time perspective affected life satisfaction depending on the time scale on which it was evaluated-memory of a negative past influenced life satisfaction in all time frames, and a positive view of the past influenced both past and future life satisfaction. Moreover, less rumination about past negative events (i.e., low score on Past Negative), the tendency to take risks in the present to achieve happy feelings and/or avoid boredom (i.e., high scores on Present Hedonistic), and a less hopeless and pessimistic view about the present (low scores on Present Fatalistic) were associated with higher levels of psychological well-being and positive affect. These same time perspective dimensions were associated with lower levels of negative affect. The Future time perspective dimension (i.e., approaching life with self-control, punctuality, and planning for the future) was associated with both psychological well-being and positive affect. Conclusions. High levels of both subjective and psychological well-being are related to a happier and a less sinister past, a more hedonistic and less fatalistic present, as well as to a more structured future.

A happier and less sinister past, a more hedonistic and less fatalistic present and a more structured future: time perspective and well-being

PubMed Central

Sailer, Uta; Rosenberg, Patricia; Nima, Ali Al; Gamble, Amelie; Gärling, Tommy; Archer, Trevor

2014-01-01

Background. Previous studies have established a link between how people relate to their past, present, and future (i.e., time perspective) and subjective well-being (i.e., life satisfaction, positive and negative affect). Time perspective comprises five dimensions: Past Positive, Past Negative, Present Hedonistic, Present Fatalistic, and Future. Life satisfaction can also be evaluated in relation to different time frames. Moreover, approach related positive affect is associated to a different concept of well-being labeled psychological well-being. In the present study we extend previous findings by investigating the effect of time perspective on the time frame of evaluations of life satisfaction (past, present, future) and by investigating the relationship between time perspective and psychological well-being. Method. Questionnaires on time perspective (Zimbardo’s Time Perspective Inventory), temporal life satisfaction (Temporal Satisfaction with Life Scale), affect (Positive Affect and Negative Affect Schedule), and psychological well-being (Scales of Psychological Well-Being—short version) were answered by 453 individuals. Two different structural equation models were tested, one of the relationship between time perspective and temporal life satisfaction, and the other of the relationship between time perspective, affect and psychological well-being. Results. Time perspective affected life satisfaction depending on the time scale on which it was evaluated—memory of a negative past influenced life satisfaction in all time frames, and a positive view of the past influenced both past and future life satisfaction. Moreover, less rumination about past negative events (i.e., low score on Past Negative), the tendency to take risks in the present to achieve happy feelings and/or avoid boredom (i.e., high scores on Present Hedonistic), and a less hopeless and pessimistic view about the present (low scores on Present Fatalistic) were associated with higher levels of psychological well-being and positive affect. These same time perspective dimensions were associated with lower levels of negative affect. The Future time perspective dimension (i.e., approaching life with self-control, punctuality, and planning for the future) was associated with both psychological well-being and positive affect. Conclusions. High levels of both subjective and psychological well-being are related to a happier and a less sinister past, a more hedonistic and less fatalistic present, as well as to a more structured future. PMID:24688878

Architected squirt-flow materials for energy dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Tal; Kurzeja, Patrick; Bertoldi, Katia

2017-12-01

In the present study we explore material architectures that lead to enhanced dissipation properties by taking advantage of squirt-flow - a local flow mechanism triggered by heterogeneities at the pore level. While squirt-flow is a known dominant source of dissipation and seismic attenuation in fluid saturated geological materials, we study its untapped potential to be incorporated in highly deformable elastic materials with embedded fluid-filled cavities for future engineering applications. An analytical investigation, that isolates the squirt-flow mechanism from other potential dissipation mechanisms and considers an idealized setting, predicts high theoretical levels of dissipation achievable by squirt-flow and establishes a set of guidelines for optimal dissipation design. Particular architectures are then investigated via numerical simulations showing that a careful design of the internal voids can lead to an increase of dissipation levels by an order of magnitude, compared with equivalent homogeneous void distributions. Therefore, we suggest squirt-flow as a promising mechanism to be incorporated in future architected materials to effectively and reversibly dissipate energy.

Dynamics of contraceptive use in India: apprehension versus future intention among non-users and traditional method users.

PubMed

Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Unisa, Sayeed

2013-06-01

This study examines the reasons for not using any method of contraception as well as reasons for not using modern methods of contraception, and factors associated with the future intention to use different types of contraceptives in India and its selected states, namely Uttar Pradesh, Assam and West Bengal. Data from the third wave of District Level Household and Facility Survey, 2007-08 were used. Bivariate as well as logistic regression analyses were performed to fulfill the study objective. Postpartum amenorrhea and breastfeeding practices were reported as the foremost causes for not using any method of contraception. Opposition to use, health concerns and fear of side effects were reported to be major hurdles in the way of using modern methods of contraception. Results from logistic regression suggest considerable variation in explaining the factors associated with future intention to use contraceptives. Promotion of health education addressing the advantages of contraceptive methods and eliminating apprehension about the use of these methods through effective communication by community level workers is the need of the hour. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using self-determination theory to describe the academic motivation of allied health professional-level college students.

PubMed

Ballmann, Jodi M; Mueller, Jill J

2008-01-01

This study investigated the various reasons that allied health students believe they are currently attending college. The Academic Motivation Scale was administered to a convenience sample of 222 upperclassmen and graduate-level students (162 women, 46 men). The Academic Motivation Scale proposes various reasons for continued engagement in academic pursuits that may be characteristic of personal and current reasons for persistence in a subject's particular academic program. The results showed that students portrayed themselves as currently attending college for both intrinsically and extrinsically motivated reasons. The most frequently endorsed motivational styles were identified (autonomous) extrinsic motivation and externally regulated (nonautonomous) extrinsic motivation. This study showed that this sample of professional-level college students was not completely self-determined in their end-stage academic pursuits. One conclusion that may be drawn from this study is that allied health programs that provide students with an educational context that supports self-determination may encourage future allied health professionals to develop the ability to support the self-determination of their future clients.

Effect of Pumping on Groundwater Levels: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sindhu, G.; Vijayachandran, Lekshmi

2018-03-01

Groundwater is a major source for drinking and domestic purposes. Nowadays, extensive pumping has become a major issue of concern since pumping has led to rapid decline in the groundwater table, thus imposing landward gradient, leading to saline water intrusion especially in coastal areas. Groundwater pumping has seen its utmost effect on coastal aquifer systems, where the sea-ward gradient gets disturbed due to anthropogenic influences. Hence, a groundwater flow modelling of an aquifer system is essential for understanding the various hydro-geologic conditions, which can be used to study the responses of the aquifer system with regard to various pumping scenarios. Besides, a model helps to predict the water levels for the future period with respect to changing environment. In this study, a finite element groundwater flow model of a coastal aquifer system at Aakulam, Trivandrum district is developed, calibrated and simulated using the software Finite Element subsurface Flow system (FEFLOW 6.2).This simulated model is then used to predict the groundwater levels for a future 5 year period during pre monsoon and post monsoon season.

Effect of Pumping on Groundwater Levels: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sindhu, G.; Vijayachandran, Lekshmi

2018-06-01

Groundwater is a major source for drinking and domestic purposes. Nowadays, extensive pumping has become a major issue of concern since pumping has led to rapid decline in the groundwater table, thus imposing landward gradient, leading to saline water intrusion especially in coastal areas. Groundwater pumping has seen its utmost effect on coastal aquifer systems, where the sea-ward gradient gets disturbed due to anthropogenic influences. Hence, a groundwater flow modelling of an aquifer system is essential for understanding the various hydro-geologic conditions, which can be used to study the responses of the aquifer system with regard to various pumping scenarios. Besides, a model helps to predict the water levels for the future period with respect to changing environment. In this study, a finite element groundwater flow model of a coastal aquifer system at Aakulam, Trivandrum district is developed, calibrated and simulated using the software Finite Element subsurface Flow system (FEFLOW 6.2).This simulated model is then used to predict the groundwater levels for a future 5 year period during pre monsoon and post monsoon season.

Quantitative Study of the Effects of Dehydration on the Viscoelastic Parameters in the Vocal Fold Mucosa.

PubMed

Yang, Shuai; Zhang, Yu; Mills, Randal D; Jiang, Jack J

2017-05-01

The goal of this study was to quantify the viscoelastic parameters of the vocal fold mucosa at varying dehydration levels. Healthy canine larynges were obtained postmortem, and the samples were separated from the subglottal wall. The samples were dehydrated in a vacuum dryer. According to the total dehydration time per sample, dehydration levels were divided into four degrees: 0%, 40%, 60%, and 80%. The stepper was set to stretch the sample to a level of 35% strain at the same rate (0.5 mm/s). Data collection was repeated five times under each dehydration condition. The compression resilience, RC% = S'/S*100%, and the hysteresis area were measured according to the stress-strain curves. The varying properties of the samples under different dehydration levels were investigated by fitting the curves. The area of the hysteresis loops observed in the stress-strain curves increased exponentially with dehydration levels, whereas the RC% decreased linearly. For all curves, low-strain stages can be explained by Hooke's law (σ = E 0 *ε). With increasing levels of dehydration, E 0 was shown to increase, whereas the linear range was shortened. High-strain stages resembled exponential rather than the linear curves. And the nonlinear stage of the curve became increasingly apparent in the stress-strain curves of increased dehydration levels. The quantitative results in this study not only provide a numerical reference for future experimental measurements, but also can be used to verify the biphasic model in future studies. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Volz, Stephen; Maier, Mark; Di Pietro, David

2016-01-01

NOAA is beginning a study, the NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture (NSOSA) study, to plan for the future operational environmental satellite system that will follow GOES and JPSS, beginning about 2030. This is an opportunity to design a modern architecture with no pre-conceived notions regarding instruments, platforms, orbits, etc. The NSOSA study will develop and evaluate architecture alternatives to include partner and commercial alternatives that are likely to become available. The objectives will include both functional needs and strategic characteristics (e.g., flexibility, responsiveness, sustainability). Part of this study is the Space Platform Requirements Working Group (SPRWG), which is being commissioned by NESDIS. The SPRWG is charged to assess new or existing user needs and to provide relative priorities for observational needs in the context of the future architecture. SPRWG results will serve as input to the process for new foundational (Level 0 and Level 1) requirements for the next generation of NOAA satellites that follow the GOES-R, JPSS, DSCOVR, Jason-3, and COSMIC-2 missions.

Future Flood Inundation and Damages from Storm Surge in the Coast of Virginia and Maryland with Projected Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaie, A. M.; Ferreira, C.; Walls, M. A.

2016-12-01

The recurrent flood risks on coastal areas in the United States (US) due to hurricane wind and storm surge are likely to rise with warmer climate, frequent storms, and increasing coastal population. Recent studies suggested that the global financial losses from hurricanes will be doubled by 2100 due to combined impact of climate change, sea level rise (SLR) and intensified hurricanes. While the predicted average SLR for the Mid-Atlantic region of the US is 2.2 meter, some coastal areas in Virginia (VA) and Maryland (MD) are expected to experience a 0.7 to 1.6m and 0.6 to 1.7m SLR respectively. Nearly 80 percent of the total $5.3 billion property damage by Hurricane Isabel in 2003 was within VA and MD. In order to provide a quantitative assessment of the future flooding and associated damages for projected climate change and SLR scenarios, this study integrated state-of-the-art coastal numerical model ADCIRC with a careful economic valuation exercise of flood damages. The study area covers the entire coastal zone of VA and MD focusing on regions that are in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean with high susceptibility to storm surge and flooding. Multiple climate change land cover scenarios generated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) under a series of the IPCC's Emissions Scenarios are incorporated in the modeling approach to integrate climate change whereas local SLR projections are included to provide the regional aspects of future risks. Preliminary results for hurricane Isabel (2003) shows that a 2.3m rise in sea level can cause storm surges rising up to 3-4m in the coastal areas. While a 0.5m SLR makes the range 1-2.5m in the affected areas. It is also seen that higher increase in the sea level not only causes higher range of inundation but a greater extent of flood as well. The projected inland flooding extents are highest for the SRES A2 Scenario. Alongside an estimate of future loss and damage will be prepared to assist in future planning for the coastal areas near the Chesapeake Bay regions and finally progressing in developing a climate resilient coast. Furthermore the estimated damages will be applied to quantify the functionality and benefits of natural and nature-based features for coastal defense for future changes in climate and development.

A Multi-Level Approach to Modeling Rapidly Growing Mega-Regions as a Coupled Human-Natural System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, J. A.; Tang, W.; Meentemeyer, R. K.

2013-12-01

The FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) integrates information on nonstationary drivers of land change (per capita land area demand, site suitability, and spatial structure of conversion events) into spatial-temporal projections of changes in landscape patterns (Meentemeyer et al., 2013). One striking feature of FUTURES is its patch-growth algorithm that includes feedback effects of former development events across several temporal and spatial scales: cell-level transition events are aggregated into patches of land change and their further growth is based on empirically derived parameters controlling its size, shape, and dispersion. Here, we augment the FUTURES modeling framework by expanding its multilevel structure and its representation of human decision making. The new modeling framework is hierarchically organized as nested subsystems including the latest theory on telecouplings in coupled human-natural systems (Liu et al., 2013). Each subsystem represents a specific level of spatial scale and embraces agents that have decision making authority at a particular level. The subsystems are characterized with regard to their spatial representation and are connected via flows of information (e.g. regulations and policies) or material (e.g. population migration). To provide a modeling framework that is applicable to a wide range of settings and geographical regions and to keep it computationally manageable, we implement a 'zooming factor' that allows to enable or disable subsystems (and hence the represented processes), based on the extent of the study region. The implementation of the FUTURES modeling framework for a specific case study follows the observational modeling approach described in Grimm et al. (2005), starting from the analysis of empirical data in order to capture the processes relevant for specific scales and to allow a rigorous calibration and validation of the model application. In this paper, we give an introduction to the basic concept of our modeling approach and describe its strengths and weaknesses. We furthermore use empirical data for the states of North and South Carolina to demonstrate how the modeling framework can be applied to a large, heterogeneous study system with diverse decision-making agents. Grimm et al. (2005) Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology. Science 310, 987-991. Liu et al. (2013) Framing Sustainability in a Telecoupled World. Ecology and Society 18(2), 26. Meentemeyer et al. (2013) FUTURES: Multilevel Simulations of Merging Urban-Rural Landscape Structure Using a Stochastic Patch-Growing Algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103(4), 785-807.

Responses of calcification of massive and encrusting corals to past, present, and near-future ocean carbon dioxide concentrations.

PubMed

Iguchi, Akira; Kumagai, Naoki H; Nakamura, Takashi; Suzuki, Atsushi; Sakai, Kazuhiko; Nojiri, Yukihiro

2014-12-15

In this study, we report the acidification impact mimicking the pre-industrial, the present, and near-future oceans on calcification of two coral species (Porites australiensis, Isopora palifera) by using precise pCO2 control system which can produce acidified seawater under stable pCO2 values with low variations. In the analyses, we performed Bayesian modeling approaches incorporating the variations of pCO2 and compared the results between our modeling approach and classical statistical one. The results showed highest calcification rates in pre-industrial pCO2 level and gradual decreases of calcification in the near-future ocean acidification level, which suggests that ongoing and near-future ocean acidification would negatively impact coral calcification. In addition, it was expected that the variations of parameters of carbon chemistry may affect the inference of the best model on calcification responses to these parameters between Bayesian modeling approach and classical statistical one even under stable pCO2 values with low variations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

Impact of episodic thinking on altruism

PubMed Central

Yi, Richard; Pickover, Alison; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M.; Baker, Sydney; Landes, Reid D.

2016-01-01

Episodic future thinking, which refers to the use of prospective imagery to concretely imagine oneself in future scenarios, has been shown to reduce delay discounting (enhance self-control). A parallel approach, in which prospective imagery is used to concretely imagine other’s scenarios, may similarly reduce social discounting (i.e., enhance altruism). In study 1, participants engaged in episodic thinking about the self or others, in a repeated-measures design, while completing a social discounting task. Reductions in social discounting were observed as a function of episodic thinking about others, though an interaction with order was also observed. Using an independent-measures design in study 2, the effect of episodic thinking about others was replicated. Study 3 addressed a limitation of studies 1 and 2, the possibility that simply thinking about others decreased social discounting. Capitalizing on Construal Level Theory, which specifies that social distance and time in the future are both dimensions of a common psychological distance, we hypothesized that episodic future thinking should also decrease social discounting. Participants engaged in episodic future thinking or episodic present thinking, in a repeated-measures design, while completing a social discounting task. The pattern of results was similar to study 1, providing support for the notion that episodic thinking about psychologically distant outcomes (for others or in the future) reduces social discounting. Application of similar episodic thinking approaches may enhance altruism. PMID:27821875

Future-oriented tweets predict lower county-level HIV prevalence in the United States.

PubMed

Ireland, Molly E; Schwartz, H Andrew; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle H; Albarracín, Dolores

2015-12-01

Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Over 150 million tweets mapped to U.S. counties were analyzed using 2 methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Future-Oriented Tweets Predict Lower County-Level HIV Prevalence in the United States

PubMed Central

Ireland, Molly E.; Schwartz, Hansen A.; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle; Albarracín, Dolores

2016-01-01

Objective Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower HIV rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Method Over 150 million Tweets mapped to US counties were analyzed using two methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Conclusion Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. PMID:26651466

Performance of today’s dual energy CT and future multi energy CT in virtual non-contrast imaging and in iodine quantification: A simulation study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faby, Sebastian, E-mail: sebastian.faby@dkfz.de; Kuchenbecker, Stefan; Sawall, Stefan

2015-07-15

Purpose: To study the performance of different dual energy computed tomography (DECT) techniques, which are available today, and future multi energy CT (MECT) employing novel photon counting detectors in an image-based material decomposition task. Methods: The material decomposition performance of different energy-resolved CT acquisition techniques is assessed and compared in a simulation study of virtual non-contrast imaging and iodine quantification. The material-specific images are obtained via a statistically optimal image-based material decomposition. A projection-based maximum likelihood approach was used for comparison with the authors’ image-based method. The different dedicated dual energy CT techniques are simulated employing realistic noise models andmore » x-ray spectra. The authors compare dual source DECT with fast kV switching DECT and the dual layer sandwich detector DECT approach. Subsequent scanning and a subtraction method are studied as well. Further, the authors benchmark future MECT with novel photon counting detectors in a dedicated DECT application against the performance of today’s DECT using a realistic model. Additionally, possible dual source concepts employing photon counting detectors are studied. Results: The DECT comparison study shows that dual source DECT has the best performance, followed by the fast kV switching technique and the sandwich detector approach. Comparing DECT with future MECT, the authors found noticeable material image quality improvements for an ideal photon counting detector; however, a realistic detector model with multiple energy bins predicts a performance on the level of dual source DECT at 100 kV/Sn 140 kV. Employing photon counting detectors in dual source concepts can improve the performance again above the level of a single realistic photon counting detector and also above the level of dual source DECT. Conclusions: Substantial differences in the performance of today’s DECT approaches were found for the application of virtual non-contrast and iodine imaging. Future MECT with realistic photon counting detectors currently can only perform comparably to dual source DECT at 100 kV/Sn 140 kV. Dual source concepts with photon counting detectors could be a solution to this problem, promising a better performance.« less

Redundant actuator development study. [flight control systems for supersonic transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryder, D. R.

1973-01-01

Current and past supersonic transport configurations are reviewed to assess redundancy requirements for future airplane control systems. Secondary actuators used in stability augmentation systems will probably be the most critical actuator application and require the highest level of redundancy. Two methods of actuator redundancy mechanization have been recommended for further study. Math models of the recommended systems have been developed for use in future computer simulations. A long range plan has been formulated for actuator hardware development and testing in conjunction with the NASA Flight Simulator for Advanced Aircraft.

Future human health research directions for the Canadian Northern Contaminants Program.

PubMed

Donaldson, Shawn G; Curren, Meredith S; Adlard, Bryan; Provost, Jonathan; Leech, Tara; Tikhonov, Constantine; Feeley, Mark; Tomlinson, Scott; Shearer, Russel

2013-01-01

Studies conducted in the mid-1980s and early 1990s demonstrated that persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and metals were reaching the Arctic ecosystem at unexpectedly high levels, many of which had no Arctic or Canadian sources. Epidemiological and toxicological studies in Canada and in other countries have found that these contaminants may pose a risk to human health. The objective of this paper is to provide the foundation for the discussion on future northern human health research under the Northern Contaminants Program (NCP) in Canada. This short discussion of human health priorities will help guide a path forward for future northern human health research in Canada to address on-going and new health concerns related to contaminants exposure in the Canadian Arctic.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

PubMed

Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

PubMed Central

Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions. PMID:29414978

Correlates of adiposity among Latino preschool children

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Childhood obesity is at record high levels in the US and disproportionately affects Latino children; however, studies examining Latino preschool children's obesity-related risk factors are sparse. This study determined correlates of Latino preschoolers' (ages 3-5 years) adiposity to inform future ob...

Specifying the Concept of Future Generations for Addressing Issues Related to High-Level Radioactive Waste.

PubMed

Kermisch, Celine

2016-12-01

The nuclear community frequently refers to the concept of "future generations" when discussing the management of high-level radioactive waste. However, this notion is generally not defined. In this context, we have to assume a wide definition of the concept of future generations, conceived as people who will live after the contemporary people are dead. This definition embraces thus each generation following ours, without any restriction in time. The aim of this paper is to show that, in the debate about nuclear waste, this broad notion should be further specified and to clarify the related implications for nuclear waste management policies. Therefore, we provide an ethical analysis of different management strategies for high-level waste in the light of two principles, protection of future generations-based on safety and security-and respect for their choice. This analysis shows that high-level waste management options have different ethical impacts across future generations, depending on whether the memory of the waste and its location is lost, or not. We suggest taking this distinction into account by introducing the notions of "close future generations" and "remote future generations", which has important implications on nuclear waste management policies insofar as it stresses that a retrievable disposal has fewer benefits than usually assumed.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Exposure to particulate matter in India: A synthesis of findings and future directions.

PubMed

Pant, Pallavi; Guttikunda, Sarath K; Peltier, Richard E

2016-05-01

Air pollution poses a critical threat to human health with ambient and household air pollution identified as key health risks in India. While there are many studies investigating concentration, composition, and health effects of air pollution, investigators are only beginning to focus on estimating or measuring personal exposure. Further, the relevance of exposures studies from the developed countries in developing countries is uncertain. This review summarizes existing research on exposure to particulate matter (PM) in India, identifies gaps and offers recommendations for future research. There are a limited number of studies focused on exposure to PM and/or associated health effects in India, but it is evident that levels of exposure are much higher than those reported in developed countries. Most studies have focused on coarse aerosols, with a few studies on fine aerosols. Additionally, most studies have focused on a handful of cities, and there are many unknowns in terms of ambient levels of PM as well as personal exposure. Given the high mortality burden associated with air pollution exposure in India, a deeper understanding of ambient pollutant levels as well as source strengths is crucial, both in urban and rural areas. Further, the attention needs to expand beyond the handful large cities that have been studied in detail. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Walking in a rotating space station, an electromyographic and kinematic study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, R. L.

1975-01-01

Biomechanics were studied of locomotion in a rotating environment like that of a space station at various gravity levels. Comparisons were made of the walking gait patterns and the amplitudes of various leg muscle electrical outputs at different gravity levels. The results of these tests are applicable to planning future space missions by providing a part of the information that will be needed to determine the type of vehicle and the gravity level to be provided for the astronauts if it is decided that artificial gravity is to be utilized.

A Study of the Innovation, Creativity, and Leadership Skills Associated with the College-Level Millennial Generation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lester, Melinda

2011-01-01

As the economy has become increasingly global, organizations whose employees are more creative and innovative compete at a higher level than those who do not. And, organizations that incorporate multi-generations into their workforce will realize more creativity and innovation within their organizations. Now, and in the future, leaders will…

Boon and Bane of Being Sure: The Effect of Performance Certainty and Expectancy on Task Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schindler, Simon; Reinhard, Marc-André; Dickhäuser, Oliver

2016-01-01

Previous research has suggested certainty to be an important factor when investigating effects of level of expectancies on future behavior. With the present study, we addressed the interplay of expectancy certainty and level of expectancies regarding task performance. We assumed that certain performance expectancies provide a better basis for the…

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; ...

2015-03-30

This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAO) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 as well as regional high resolution climate simulations. In the future, while robust decrease of CAO duration dominates in most regions, the magnitude of decrease over northwestern U.S. is much smaller than the surrounding regions. We identified statistically significant increases in sea level pressure during CAO events centering over Yukon, Alaska, and Gulf of Alaska that advects continental cold air to northwestern U.S., leading to blocking and CAO events. Changes in large scale circulationmore » contribute to about 50% of the enhanced sea level pressure anomaly conducive to CAO in northwestern U.S. in the future. High resolution regional simulations revealed potential contributions of increased existing snowpack to increased CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern U.S., and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects, despite winter mean snow water equivalent decreases in the future. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern U.S., the top 5 most extreme CAO events may still occur in the future, and wind chill warning will continue to have societal impacts in that region.« less

Upstream effects of dams on alluvial channels: state-of-the-art and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liro, Maciej

2017-04-01

More than 50,000 large dams (with the height above 15 m) operate all over the world and, thus, they significantly disturb water and sediment transport in river systems. These disturbances are recognized as one of the most important factors shaping river morphology in the Anthropocene. Downstream effects of dams have been well documented in numerous case studies and supported by predictions from existing models. In contrast, little is known on the upstream effects of dams on alluvial channels. This review highlights the lack of studies on sedimentological, hydromorphological and biogeomorphological adjustments of alluvial rivers in the base-level raised zones of backwater upstream of dam reservoirs where water level fluctuations occur. Up to date, it has been documented that backwater effects may facilitate fine and coarse sediment deposition, increase groundwater level, provide higher and more frequent channel and floodplain inundation and lead to significant morphological changes. But there have been no studies quantifying short- and long-term consequences of these disturbances for the hydromorphological and biogeomorphological feedbacks that control development of alluvial channels. Some recent studies carried out on gravel-bed and fine-grained bed rivers show that the above mentioned disturbances facilitate vegetation expansion on exposed channel sediments and floodplain influencing river morphology, which suggests that backwater area of alluvial rivers may be treated as the hotspot of bio-geomorphological changes in a fluvial system. To set the stage for future research on upstream effects of dams, this work presents the existing state-of-art and proposes some hypotheses which may be tested in future studies. This study was carried out within the scope of the Research Project 2015/19/N/ST10/01526 financed by the National Science Centre of Poland

Latitudinal variation in carbon storage can help predict changes in swamps affected by global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.; McKee, Karen

2004-01-01

Plants may offer our best hope of removing greenhouse gases (gases that contribute to global warming) emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. At the same time, global warming could change environments so that natural plant communities will either need to shift into cooler climate zones, or become extirpated (Prasad and Iverson, 1999; Crumpacker and others, 2001; Davis and Shaw, 2001). It is impossible to know the future, but studies combining field observation of production and modeling can help us make predictions about what may happen to these wetland communities in the future. Widespread wetland types such as baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps in the southeastern portion of the United States could be especially good at carbon sequestration (amount of CO2 stored by forests) from the atmosphere. They have high levels of production and sometimes store undecomposed dead plant material in wet conditions with low oxygen, thus keeping gases stored that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere (fig. 1). To study the ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon, our project has taken two approaches. The first analysis looked at published data to develop an idea (hypothesis) of how production levels change across a temperature gradient in the baldcypress region (published data study). The second study tested this idea by comparing production levels across a latitudinal range by using swamps in similar field conditions (ongoing carbon storage study). These studies will help us make predictions about the future ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon in soil and plant biomass, as well as the ability of these forests to shift northward with global warming.

What Shapes Adolescents' Future Perceptions? The Effects of Hearing Loss, Social Affiliation, and Career Self-Efficacy.

PubMed

Michael, Rinat; Cinamon, Rachel Gali; Most, Tova

2015-10-01

The current study examined the contribution of hearing loss, social affiliation, and career self-efficacy to adolescents' future perceptions. Participants were 191 11th and 12th grade students: 60 who were deaf, 36 who were deaf or hard of hearing, and 95 who were hearing. They completed the Future Perceptions Scale, the Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy (CDMSE) Scale, and the Self-Efficacy for the Management of Work-Family Conflict Scale. Results indicated that participants who were deaf reported significantly higher levels of future clarity and intensity than the other groups. However, no significant differences were found in career self-efficacy. Hearing status and affiliation and the efficacy to manage future conflict between work and family roles were significant predictors of participants' future clarity. CDMSE was a significant predictor of future planning. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2016. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 89

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; Schulenberg, John E.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Miech, Richard A.; Patrick, Megan E.

2017-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2015. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 87

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2016-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who…

Monitoring the Future: National Results on Adolescent Drug Use. Overview of Key Findings 2005. NIH Publication No. 06-5882

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2006-01-01

Results from the Monitoring the Future's 2005 nationwide survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students are given in this report. Recent trends in the use of licit and illicit drugs are emphasized, as well as trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug. This study has shown these beliefs and attitudes to…

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2014. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 85

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2015-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of and trends in the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were…

An Example of Educational Transformation: Venezuela.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cirigliano, Gustavo F. J.

1979-01-01

Presents a case study of educational development in Venezuela, with emphasis on political and cultural influences, social needs, needs of developing nations, experimentation on all levels, fellowship programs, and projections for the future. (DB)

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

PubMed

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be worthwhile testing in medical practice in order to confirm or refute the positive findings of this study. Our cohort study will be continued to include more VTE cases and to increase predictive value of the model.

Regulatory trends in the battery industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McColl, K. G.

1994-02-01

The scope of regulations in the battery industry is extensive and also complex. In the future, regulations will become more demanding and will encompass issues not currently considered. Increased focus on environmental issues by government bodies, environmental groups, local communities will result in more strict compliance standards. The USA is currently leading the world's battery industries in the scope and compliance level of regulations. By studying trends in the USA, the rest of the battery industry can prepare itself for the future operating environment. This paper reviews the most critical areas of air pollution, blood-lead levels and recycling. The paper concludes that the battery industry must adopt a culture of exceeding current compliance standards.

The level of use of PDAs by nurse practitioners and administrative barriers.

PubMed

Abell, Cathy Hoots; Jepson, Terry; Gabbard, Jay

2012-10-01

The purpose of this descriptive, correlational research study was to examine the relationship between the level of use of PDAs by nurse practitioners and their perception of managers following established change strategies. A convenience sample of 159 NPs was obtained for the study. Findings included a low, positive correlation between the level of PDA use and total Change Process Survey score (r = 0.23) that was significant (P = .006) at the .01 level. The use of PDAs by NPs is important to patient safety; therefore, administrators must be aware of change strategies that may enhance the use of PDAs. Recommendations for future research include replicating the study using a larger, randomized sample.

An adjusted bed net coverage indicator with estimations for 23 African countries

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Many studies have assessed the level of bed net coverage in populations at risk of malaria infection. These revealed large variations in bed net use across countries, regions and social strata. Such studies are often aimed at identifying populations with low access to bed nets that should be prioritized in future interventions. However, often spatial differences in malaria endemicity are not taken into account. By ignoring variability in malaria endemicity, these studies prioritize populations with little access to bed nets, even if these happen to live in low endemicity areas. Conversely, populations living in regions with high malaria endemicity will receive a lower priority once a seizable proportion is protected by bed nets. Adequately assigning priorities requires accounting for both the current level of bed net coverage and the local malaria endemicity. Indeed, as shown here for 23 African countries, there is no correlation between the level of bed net coverage and the level of malaria endemicity in a region. Therefore, the need for future interventions can not be assessed based on current bed net coverage alone. This paper proposes the Adjusted Bed net Coverage (ABC) statistic as a measure taking into account both local malaria endemicity and the level of bed net coverage. The measure allows setting priorities for future interventions taking into account both local malaria endemicity and bed net coverage. Methods A mathematical formulation of the ABC as a weighted difference of bed net coverage and malaria endemicity is presented. The formulation is parameterized based on a model of malaria epidemiology (Smith et al. Trends Parasitol 25:511-516, 2009). By parameterizing the ABC based on this model, the ABC as used in this paper is proxy for the steady-state malaria burden given the current level of bed net coverage. Data on the bed net coverage in under five year olds and malaria endemicity in 23 Sub-Saharan countries is used to show that the ABC prioritizes different populations than the level of bed net coverage by itself. Data from the following countries was used: Angola, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Congo Democratic Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The priority order given by the ABC and the bed net coverage are compared at the countries’ level, the first level administrative divisions and for five different wealth quintiles. Results Both at national level and at the level of the administrative divisions the ABC suggests a different priority order for selecting countries and divisions for future interventions. When taking into account malaria endemicity, measures assessing equality in access to bed nets across wealth quintiles, such as slopes of inequality, are prone to change. This suggests that when assessing inequality in access to bed nets one should take into account the local malaria endemicity for populations from different wealth quintiles. Conclusion Accounting for malaria endemicity highlights different countries, regions and socio-economic strata for future intervention than the bed net coverage by itself. Therefore, care should be taken to factor out any effects of local malaria endemicity in assessing bed net coverage and in prioritizing populations for further scale-up of bed net coverage. The ABC is proposed as a simple means to do this that is derived from an existing model of malaria epidemiology. PMID:24359227

Fixed Future and Uncertain Past: Theorems Explain Why It Is Often More Difficult to Reconstruct the Past Than to Predict the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alefeld, Goetz; Koshelev, Misha; Mayer, Guenter

1997-01-01

At first glance. it may seem that reconstructing the past is, in general, easier than predicting the future, because the past has already occurred and it has already left its traces, while the future is still yet to come, and so no traces of the future are available. However, in many real life situations, including problems from geophysics and celestial mechanics, reconstructing the past is much more computationally difficult than predicting the future. In this paper, we give an explanation of this difficulty. This explanation is given both on a formal level (as a theorem) and on the informal level (as a more intuitive explanation).

Adolescents' thoughts about parents' jobs and their importance for adolescents' future orientation.

PubMed

Neblett, Nicole Gardner; Cortina, Kai Schnabel

2006-10-01

The current study examined the relation between adolescents' perceptions of their parents' jobs and their future orientation, and tested the role of parental support. Four hundred and fifteen ninth through twelfth graders were surveyed about their parents' job rewards, self-direction, and stressors, as well as their expectations for employment and education prospects. Results indicate that perceptions of parents' rewards, self-direction, and stress predict how positively or negatively adolescents perceive the future to be. Results also suggest that higher levels of parental support may weaken the association between perceptions and future orientation when adolescents perceive their parents experience unfavorable conditions at work. These results suggest that adolescents' perceptions of parents' jobs have implications for their preparation for adulthood.

Larval development and settling of Macoma balthica in a large-scale mesocosm experiment at different fCO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansson, A.; Lischka, S.; Boxhammer, T.; Schulz, K. G.; Norkko, J.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are causing severe changes in the global inorganic carbon balance of the oceans. Associated ocean acidification is expected to impose a major threat to marine ecosystems worldwide, and it is also expected to be amplified in the Baltic Sea where the system is already at present exposed to relatively large natural seasonal and diel pH fluctuations. The response of organisms to future ocean acidification has primarily been studied in single-species experiments, whereas the knowledge of community-wide responses is still limited. To study responses of the Baltic Sea pelagic community to a range of future CO2-scenarios, six ∼ 55 m3 pelagic mesocosms were deployed in the northern Baltic Sea in June 2012. In this specific study we focused on the tolerance, development and subsequent settlement process of the larvae of the benthic key-species Macoma balthica when exposed to different levels of future CO2. We found that the settling of M. balthica was delayed along the increasing CO2 gradient of the mesocosms. Also, when exposed to increasing CO2 levels larvae settled at a larger size, indicating a developmental delay. With on-going climate change, both the frequency and extent of regularly occurring high CO2 conditions is likely to increase, and a permanent pH decrease will likely occur. The strong impact of increasing CO2 levels on early-stage bivalves is alarming as these stages are crucial for sustaining viable populations, and a failure in their recruitment would ultimately lead to negative effects on the population.

Future Achievements, Passion and Motivation in the Transition from Junior-to-Senior Sport in Spanish Young Elite Soccer Players.

PubMed

Chamorro, José L; Torregrosa, Miquel; Sánchez Oliva, David; García Calvo, Tomás; León, Benito

2016-10-20

Within the context of the transition from junior-to-senior sport, this study aims in first place to explore differences in young Spanish elite soccer players based on the importance given to getting different achievements in their future (including sport, studies and private life) and, in second place, to explore differences among those players in levels of passion, motivation and basic psychological need. 478 elite youth soccer filled out a questionnaire based on the presented theoretical models. A cluster analysis shows a sport oriented group (N = 98) only interested in becoming a professional, a life spheres balance group (N = 288) characterized by balancing the importance of achievements in the sport sphere, as well as in education and a private life and a group (N = 91) only interested in private life achievements. The life spheres balance group shows higher levels of harmonious passion (η2 = .06, F(2, 475) = 9.990, p < .001) than the players of the other groups. The life spheres balance group shows higher levels of autonomous motivation (η2 = .10, F(2, 475) = 13.597, p < .001), autonomy (η2 = .07, F(2, 475) = 6.592, p < .01) and relatedness satisfaction (η2 = .07, F(2, 475) = 5.603, p < .01) than the sport oriented group as well as lower levels of amotivation (η2 = .04, F(2, 475) = 6.665, p < .01) than the private life oriented group. This study suggests players who perceive equal future importance in their life spheres appear to be more resourceful than the other two groups regarding athletes' internal resources, such as passion and motivation, to cope with the transition to professional soccer.

Grade-Level Differences in Future-Oriented Self-Concept during Early Adolescence: Potential Relevance to School Nursing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoddard, Sarah A.; Pierce, Jennifer; Schmidt, Carissa J.

2016-01-01

The middle school and early high school years are a time of significant development, including an increasing ability to envision oneself in the future. Little is known about how adolescents' future-oriented self-concept (i.e., possible selves) differs across grade levels, although this knowledge may aid in establishing rapport with students and…

Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2015-04-01

Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different components: tides, short time atmospheric process influence (1-30 days), seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Every sea level component is statistically compared with data from local tide gauges.

Uncertainties of statistical downscaling from predictor selection: Equifinality and transferability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Guobin; Charles, Stephen P.; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Ekström, Marie; Potter, Nick J.

2018-05-01

The nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) statistical downscaling model, 38 catchments in southeast Australia and 19 general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this study to demonstrate statistical downscaling uncertainties caused by equifinality to and transferability. That is to say, there could be multiple sets of predictors that give similar daily rainfall simulation results for both calibration and validation periods, but project different amounts (or even directions of change) of rainfall changing in the future. Results indicated that two sets of predictors (Set 1 with predictors of sea level pressure north-south gradient, u-wind at 700 hPa, v-wind at 700 hPa, and specific humidity at 700 hPa and Set 2 with predictors of sea level pressure north-south gradient, u-wind at 700 hPa, v-wind at 700 hPa, and dewpoint temperature depression at 850 hPa) as inputs to the NHMM produced satisfactory results of seasonal rainfall in comparison with observations. For example, during the model calibration period, the relative errors across the 38 catchments ranged from 0.48 to 1.76% with a mean value of 1.09% for the predictor Set 1, and from 0.22 to 2.24% with a mean value of 1.16% for the predictor Set 2. However, the changes of future rainfall from NHMM projections based on 19 GCMs produced projections with a different sign for these two different sets of predictors: Set 1 predictors project an increase of future rainfall with magnitudes depending on future time periods and emission scenarios, but Set 2 predictors project a decline of future rainfall. Such divergent projections may present a significant challenge for applications of statistical downscaling as well as climate change impact studies, and could potentially imply caveats in many existing studies in the literature.

From discrimination to internalized mental illness stigma: The mediating roles of anticipated discrimination and anticipated stigma.

PubMed

Quinn, Diane M; Williams, Michelle K; Weisz, Bradley M

2015-06-01

Internalizing mental illness stigma is related to poorer well-being, but less is known about the factors that predict levels of internalized stigma. This study explored how experiences of discrimination relate to greater anticipation of discrimination and devaluation in the future and how anticipation of stigma in turn predicts greater stigma internalization. Participants were 105 adults with mental illness who self-reported their experiences of discrimination based on their mental illness, their anticipation of discrimination and social devaluation from others in the future, and their level of internalized stigma. Participants were approached in several locations and completed surveys on laptop computers. Correlational analyses indicated that more experiences of discrimination due to one's mental illness were related to increased anticipated discrimination in the future, increased anticipated social stigma from others, and greater internalized stigma. Multiple serial mediator analyses showed that the effect of experiences of discrimination on internalized stigma was fully mediated by increased anticipated discrimination and anticipated stigma. Experiences of discrimination over one's lifetime may influence not only how much future discrimination people with mental illness are concerned with but also how much they internalize negative feelings about the self. Mental health professionals may need to address concerns with future discrimination and devaluation in order to decrease internalized stigma. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Carotenoid-dependent coloration of male American kestrels predicts ability to reduce parasitic infections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Russell D.; Bortolotti, Gary R.

2006-12-01

The signaling function of sexually selected traits, such as carotenoid-dependent avian plumage coloration, has received a great deal of recent attention especially with respect to parasitism and immunocompetence. We argue that parasite-mediated models of sexual selection may have an implicit temporal component that many researchers have ignored. For example, previous studies have demonstrated that carotenoid-dependent traits can signal past parasite exposure, current levels of parasitism, or the ability of individuals to manage parasitic infections in the future. We examined repeated measures of carotenoid-dependent skin color and blood parasitism in American kestrels ( Falco sparverius) to distinguish whether coloration might signal current parasitism or the potential to deal with infections in the future. We found no evidence that coloration was related to current levels of parasitism in either sex. However, coloration of males significantly predicted their response to parasitism; males with bright orange coloration during prelaying, when mate choice is occurring, were more likely than dull yellow males to reduce their levels of infection by the time incubation began. Coloration during prelaying may advertise a male’s health later in the breeding season. For kestrels, the ability to predict future health would be highly beneficial given the male’s role in providing food to his mate and offspring. Coloration of females was not a significant predictor of parasitism in the future, and we provide several possible explanations for this result.

Pocket-depths-related effectiveness of an intrapocket anaesthesia gel in periodontal maintenance patients.

PubMed

Derman, S H M; Lowden, C E; Kaus, P; Noack, M J

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the pocket depth on the effectiveness of an intrapocket anaesthesia gel during SRP in periodontal maintenance patients. Effectiveness was measured by pain levels during SRP via visual analogue scale (VAS) and verbal rating scale (VRS). Secondary endpoint was the evaluation of patients' preferred choice of anaesthesia for SRP. A total of 638 patients undergoing the periodontal maintenance programme and with the need for SRP participated in this observational study. After SRP, patients filled in questionnaires to record pain levels experienced and anaesthesia preference for future use. Mann-Whitney U-test was used to analyse intergroup difference in pain perception and anaesthesia choice. Overall, increasing pocket depths were accompanied by higher pain levels, irrespective of maximum or commonest pocket depths (P < 0.05). For SRP procedures, patients definitely prefer the anaesthesia gel (72.4%). In this study, an effectiveness of local anaesthesia gel (lidocaine/prilocaine) related to pocket depths was found in periodontal maintenance patients during SRP. Increasing pocket depths were accompanied by increasing procedural pain levels. Nevertheless, the anaesthesia gel is well accepted and in the majority of cases was found to be the preferred option for future SRP treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future Orientation, Social Support, and Psychological Adjustment among Left-behind Children in Rural China: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Su, Shaobing; Li, Xiaoming; Lin, Danhua; Zhu, Maoling

2017-01-01

Existing research has found that parental migration may negatively impact the psychological adjustment of left-behind children. However, limited longitudinal research has examined if and how future orientation (individual protective factor) and social support (contextual protective factor) are associated with the indicators of psychological adjustment (i.e., life satisfaction, school satisfaction, happiness, and loneliness) of left-behind children. In the current longitudinal study, we examined the differences in psychological adjustment between left-behind children and non-left behind children (comparison children) in rural areas, and explored the protective roles of future orientation and social support on the immediate (cross-sectional effects) and subsequent (lagged effects) status of psychological adjustment for both groups of children, respectively. The sample included 897 rural children ( M age = 14.09, SD = 1.40) who participated in two waves of surveys across six months. Among the participants, 227 were left-behind children with two parents migrating, 176 were with one parent migrating, and 485 were comparison children. Results showed that, (1) left-behind children reported lower levels of life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness, as well as a higher level of loneliness in both waves; (2) After controlling for several demographics and characteristics of parental migration among left-behind children, future orientation significantly predicted life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness in both cross-sectional and longitudinal regression models, as well as loneliness in the longitudinal regression analysis. Social support predicted immediate life satisfaction, school satisfaction, and happiness, as well as subsequent school satisfaction. Similar to left-behind children, comparison children who reported higher scores in future orientation, especially future expectation, were likely to have higher scores in most indicators of psychological adjustment measured at the same time and subsequently. However, social support seemed not exhibit as important in the immediate status of psychological adjustment of comparison children as that of left-behind children. Findings, implications, and limitations of the present study were discussed.

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study on the effects of near-future ocean acidification on marine yeasts: a microcosm approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Evamaria; Wichels, Antje; Erler, René; Gerdts, Gunnar

2013-12-01

Marine yeasts play an important role in biodegradation and nutrient cycling and are often associated with marine flora and fauna. They show maximum growth at pH levels lower than present-day seawater pH. Thus, contrary to many other marine organisms, they may actually profit from ocean acidification. Hence, we conducted a microcosm study, incubating natural seawater from the North Sea at present-day pH (8.10) and two near-future pH levels (7.81 and 7.67). Yeasts were isolated from the initial seawater sample and after 2 and 4 weeks of incubation. Isolates were classified by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) and representative isolates were identified by partial sequencing of the large subunit rRNA gene. From the initial seawater sample, we predominantly isolated a yeast-like filamentous fungus related to Aureobasidium pullulans, Cryptococcus sp., Candida sake, and various cold-adapted yeasts. After incubation, we found more different yeast species at near-future pH levels than at present-day pH. Yeasts reacting to low pH were related to Leucosporidium scottii, Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, Cryptococcus sp., and Debaryomyces hansenii. Our results suggest that these yeasts will benefit from seawater pH reductions and give a first indication that the importance of yeasts will increase in a more acidic ocean.

Down to Duck Pond Level.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Croall, Jonathan

1978-01-01

The author talks to the founder of the Center for Village Studies. His name is George Delf, and his concern is with the long-term future of villages for which he has some energetic proposals. (Editor/RK)

Ultra-Low Sulfur Gasoline Emissions Study

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Understanding the effects of gasoline sulfur level on the in-use fleet is important for assessing emissions inventories and impacts of future policy decisions. Test fuels were two non-ethanol gasolines with properties typical of certification fuel.

Anxious or Depressed and Still Happy?

PubMed Central

Spinhoven, Philip; Elzinga, Bernet M.; Giltay, Erik; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.

2015-01-01

This study aimed to examine cross-sectionally to what extent persons with higher symptom levels or a current or past emotional disorder report to be less happy than controls and to assess prospectively whether time-lagged measurements of extraversion and neuroticism predict future happiness independent of time-lagged measurements of emotional disorders or symptom severity. A sample of 2142 adults aged 18–65, consisting of healthy controls and persons with current or past emotional disorder according to DSM-IV criteria completed self-ratings for happiness and emotional well-being and symptom severity. Lagged measurements of personality, symptom severity and presence of anxiety and depressive disorder at T0 (year 0), T2 (year 2) and T4 (year 4) were used to predict happiness and emotional well-being at T6 (year 6) controlling for demographics. In particular persons with more depressive symptoms, major depressive disorder, social anxiety disorder and comorbid emotional disorders reported lower levels of happiness and emotional well-being. Depression symptom severity and to a lesser extent depressive disorder predicted future happiness and emotional well-being at T6. Extraversion and to a lesser extent neuroticism also consistently forecasted future happiness and emotional well-being independent of concurrent lagged measurements of emotional disorders and symptoms. A study limitation is that we only measured happiness and emotional well-being at T6 and our measures were confined to hedonistic well-being and did not include psychological and social well-being. In sum, consistent with the two continua model of emotional well-being and mental illness, a ‘happy’ personality characterized by high extraversion and to a lesser extent low neuroticism forecasts future happiness and emotional well-being independent of concurrently measured emotional disorders or symptom severity levels. Boosting positive emotionality may be an important treatment goal for persons personally inclined to lower levels of happiness. PMID:26461261

Imagining the future in health anxiety: the impact of rumination on the specificity of illness-related memory and future thinking.

PubMed

Sansom-Daly, Ursula M; Bryant, Richard A; Cohn, Richard J; Wakefield, Claire E

2014-01-01

Individuals with health anxiety experience catastrophic fears relating to future illness. However, little research has explored cognitive processes involved in how health anxious individuals picture the future. Ruminative thinking has been shown to impede the ability to recall specific autobiographical memories, which in turn is related to maladaptive, categoric future thinking processes. This study examined the impact of rumination on memory and future thinking among 60 undergraduate participants with varying health anxiety (35% clinical-level health anxiety). Participants were randomized to experiential/ruminative self-focus conditions, then completed an Autobiographical Memory Test and Future Imaginings Task. Responses were coded for specificity and the presence of illness concerns. Rumination led to more specific illness-concerned memories overall, yet at the same time led to more categoric illness-related future imaginings. Rumination and health anxiety together best predicted overgeneral illness-related future imaginings. Highly specific illness-related memories may be maintained due to their personal salience. However, more overgeneral illness-related future imaginings may reflect cognitive avoidance in response to the threat of future illness. This divergent pattern of results between memory and future imaginings may exacerbate health anxiety, and may also serve to maintain maladaptive responses among individuals with realistic medical concerns, such as individuals living with chronic illness.

More than meets the eye: Using cognitive work analysis to identify design requirements for future rail level crossing systems.

PubMed

Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Read, Gemma J M; Mulvihill, Christine M; Cornelissen, Miranda; Walker, Guy H; Young, Kristie L; Stevens, Nicholas; Stanton, Neville A

2016-03-01

An increasing intensity of operations means that the longstanding safety issue of rail level crossings is likely to become worse in the transport systems of the future. It has been suggested that the failure to prevent collisions may be, in part, due to a lack of systems thinking during design, crash analysis, and countermeasure development. This paper presents a systems analysis of current active rail level crossing systems in Victoria, Australia that was undertaken to identify design requirements to improve safety in future rail level crossing environments. Cognitive work analysis was used to analyse rail level crossing systems using data derived from a range of activities. Overall the analysis identified a range of instances where modification or redesign in line with systems thinking could potentially improve behaviour and safety. A notable finding is that there are opportunities for redesign outside of the physical rail level crossing infrastructure, including improved data systems, in-vehicle warnings and modifications to design processes, standards and guidelines. The implications for future rail level crossing systems are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Paraprofessional Education in SA DETAFE.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Paul; Cesnich, Janine

A study examined the current outcomes and future of paraprofessional education provided under the auspices of South Australia's Department of Employment and Technical and Further Education (SA DETAFE). The primary objectives of the study were as follows: (1) determine whether an autonomous middle-level employment base exists in selected…

Coral reef structural complexity provides important coastal protection from waves under rising sea levels.

PubMed

Harris, Daniel L; Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Power, Hannah; Canavesio, Remy; Collin, Antoine; Pomeroy, Andrew; Webster, Jody M; Parravicini, Valeriano

2018-02-01

Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems that support millions of people worldwide by providing coastal protection from waves. Climate change and human impacts are leading to degraded coral reefs and to rising sea levels, posing concerns for the protection of tropical coastal regions in the near future. We use a wave dissipation model calibrated with empirical wave data to calculate the future increase of back-reef wave height. We show that, in the near future, the structural complexity of coral reefs is more important than sea-level rise in determining the coastal protection provided by coral reefs from average waves. We also show that a significant increase in average wave heights could occur at present sea level if there is sustained degradation of benthic structural complexity. Our results highlight that maintaining the structural complexity of coral reefs is key to ensure coastal protection on tropical coastlines in the future.

Coral reef structural complexity provides important coastal protection from waves under rising sea levels

PubMed Central

Harris, Daniel L.; Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Power, Hannah; Canavesio, Remy; Collin, Antoine; Pomeroy, Andrew; Webster, Jody M.; Parravicini, Valeriano

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems that support millions of people worldwide by providing coastal protection from waves. Climate change and human impacts are leading to degraded coral reefs and to rising sea levels, posing concerns for the protection of tropical coastal regions in the near future. We use a wave dissipation model calibrated with empirical wave data to calculate the future increase of back-reef wave height. We show that, in the near future, the structural complexity of coral reefs is more important than sea-level rise in determining the coastal protection provided by coral reefs from average waves. We also show that a significant increase in average wave heights could occur at present sea level if there is sustained degradation of benthic structural complexity. Our results highlight that maintaining the structural complexity of coral reefs is key to ensure coastal protection on tropical coastlines in the future. PMID:29503866

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

SERDP NOAA USACE Ocean MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES...WORLDWIDE APRIL 2016 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: COVER PHOTOS, FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: - Overwash of the island of Roi-Namur on...J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger. 2016. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the

Forming Master's Degree Students' ICT Competencies as Future Researchers and Educators: A Kazakhstan Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abykenova, Dariya Bolatovna; Assainova, Almagul Zhayakovna; Burdina, Elena Ivanovna; Murphy, Anne; Abibulayeva, Aizhan Budanovna

2016-01-01

This article analyses the information and communications technology competencies (ICTC) of Master's degree students in Kazakhstan. It defines the ICTC. Research results suggest that the majority of Master's degree students have a low level of ICTC. Of prime importance is the fact that the level of research and educational aspects of the ICTC of…

The 800 Pound Gorilla: The Threat and Taming of Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Jim

2008-01-01

This article provides two case studies that examine the current and future consequences of continued global warming at the current business-as-usual pace and at a decreased (new alternative forms of energy) level. Cause and effect relationships, such as the varying levels of CO[subscript 2] (carbon dioxide) emissions and the effect it has on…

Electricity Market Games: How Agent-Based Modeling Can Help under High Penetrations of Variable Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

Integrating increasingly high levels of variable generation in U.S. electricity markets requires addressing not only power system and grid modeling challenges but also an understanding of how market participants react and adapt to them. Key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach, which may prove to be a useful paradigm for researchers studying and planning for power systems of the future.

Demographic Subgroup Trends among Young Adults in the Use of the Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1988-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 80

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

2014-01-01

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of and trends in the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were…

How can countries achieve sustainable food supply in 2050: current knowledge and way forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kummu, M.; Fader, M.; Gerten, D.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Jalava, M.; Jägermeyr, J.; Pfister, S.; Porkka, M.; Siebert, S.; Varis, O.

2016-12-01

Growing population and climate change increase the pressure on already scarce land and water resources. To reach adequate future food supply, without increasing the pressure on these already scarce resources, various measures are suggested, including diet change, food loss reduction and closing the yield gap. Existing studies have highlighted the potential of these measures as solutions for future food security. However, these are either assessed on a global level or if spatially disaggregated, disconnected from each other. These studies illustrate well that the potential of each measure to increase food availability differs widely across the nations. Thus, spatially explicit information on these measures in a combined assessment is urgently needed to understand the leading resource-efficiency opportunities for each geographic area. By using the most recent datasets, we assess how much each country would potentially be able to increase food production with each measure alone and combining them all, at moderate and high levels of implementation. Globally these measures would increase food availability by 90 and 188%, respectively - enough to feed global population in 2050 even with moderate implementation level. Variability among countries is, however, large and several countries in Central America, Africa, Southeast Asian Islands would need high-level of implementation to reach adequate food supply by then and even then, few countries in MENA region would need to increase the trade from today's levels. Our objective was to bring together potential of various measures for increased food production, as shown in different studies. However, dynamic feedbacks between these quantifications were not included in these estimations. For example, the diet change scenarios would result in different production needs, and changes in land use would be required. This, in turn, might influence the potential improvements in food loss reduction and food production. There is thus urgent need to integrate these, and other potential measures, together and deepen the knowledge of their combined impact on future sustainable food supply.

Pathways between self-esteem and depression in couples.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew D; Galambos, Nancy L; Finn, Christine; Neyer, Franz J; Horne, Rebecca M

2017-04-01

Guided by concepts from a relational developmental perspective, this study examined intra- and interpersonal associations between self-esteem and depressive symptoms in a sample of 1,407 couples surveyed annually across 6 years in the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relations and Family Dynamics (pairfam) study. Autoregressive cross-lagged model results demonstrated that self-esteem predicted future depressive symptoms for male partners at all times, replicating the vulnerability model for men (low self-esteem is a risk factor for future depression). Additionally, a cross-partner association emerged between symptoms of depression: Higher depressive symptoms in one partner were associated with higher levels of depression in the other partner one year later. Finally, supportive dyadic coping, the support that partners reported providing to one another in times of stress, was tested as a potential interpersonal mediator of pathways between self-esteem and depression. Female partners' higher initial levels of self-esteem predicted male partners' subsequent reports of increased supportive dyadic coping, which, in turn, predicted higher self-esteem and fewer symptoms of depression among female partners in the future. Male partners' initially higher symptoms of depression predicted less frequent supportive dyadic coping subsequently reported by female partners, which was associated with increased feelings of depression in the future. Couple relations represent an important contextual factor that may be implicated in the developmental pathways connecting self-esteem and symptoms of depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Future human health research directions for the Canadian Northern Contaminants Program

PubMed Central

Donaldson, Shawn G.; Curren, Meredith S.; Adlard, Bryan; Provost, Jonathan; Leech, Tara; Tikhonov, Constantine; Feeley, Mark; Tomlinson, Scott; Shearer, Russel

2013-01-01

Studies conducted in the mid-1980s and early 1990s demonstrated that persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and metals were reaching the Arctic ecosystem at unexpectedly high levels, many of which had no Arctic or Canadian sources. Epidemiological and toxicological studies in Canada and in other countries have found that these contaminants may pose a risk to human health. The objective of this paper is to provide the foundation for the discussion on future northern human health research under the Northern Contaminants Program (NCP) in Canada. This short discussion of human health priorities will help guide a path forward for future northern human health research in Canada to address on-going and new health concerns related to contaminants exposure in the Canadian Arctic. PMID:24282784

The Need for Large-Scale, Longitudinal Empirical Studies in Middle Level Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mertens, Steven B.; Caskey, Micki M.; Flowers, Nancy

2016-01-01

This essay describes and discusses the ongoing need for large-scale, longitudinal, empirical research studies focused on middle grades education. After a statement of the problem and concerns, the essay describes and critiques several prior middle grades efforts and research studies. Recommendations for future research efforts to inform policy…

Quality Assurance in Teacher Education and Outcomes: A Study of 17 Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ingvarson, Lawrence; Rowley, Glenn

2017-01-01

This study investigated the relationship between policies related to the recruitment, selection, preparation, and certification of new teachers and (a) the quality of future teachers as measured by their mathematics content and pedagogy content knowledge and (b) student achievement in mathematics at the national level. The study used data…

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-06-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals' time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying "I don't know" item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-01-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals’ time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying “I don’t know” item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research. PMID:28781381

Factors influencing patient safety in Sweden: perceptions of patient safety officers in the county councils

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background National, regional and local activities to improve patient safety in Sweden have increased over the last decade. There are high ambitions for improved patient safety in Sweden. This study surveyed health care professionals who held key positions in their county council’s patient safety work to investigate their perceptions of the conditions for this work, factors they believe have been most important in reaching the current level of patient safety and factors they believe would be most important for achieving improved patient safety in the future. Methods The study population consisted of 218 health care professionals holding strategic positions in patient safety work in Swedish county councils. Using a questionnaire, the following topics were analysed in this study: profession/occupation; number of years involved in a designated task on patient safety issues; knowledge/overview of the county council’s patient safety work; ability to influence this work; conditions for this work; and the importance of various factors for current and future levels of patient safety. Results The response rate to the questionnaire was 79%. The conditions that had the highest number of responses in complete agreement were “patients’ involvement is important for patient safety” and “patient safety work has good support from the county council’s management”. Factors that were considered most important for achieving the current level of patient safety were root cause and risk analyses, incident reporting and the Swedish Patient Safety Law. An organizational culture that encourages reporting and avoids blame was considered most important for improved patient safety in the future, closely followed by improved communication between health care practitioners and patients. Conclusion Health care professionals with important positions in the Swedish county councils’ patient safety work believe that conditions for this work are somewhat constrained. They attribute the current levels of patient safety to a broad range of factors and believe that many different solutions can contribute to enhanced patient safety in the future, suggesting that this work must be multifactorial. PMID:23391301

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

2014-12-01

Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ's understanding of the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding at the airports and guiding decision-making in the selection of effective adaptation actions. Given the importance of these airports to transportation, this project is advancing security and continuity of national and international commerce well into the 21st century.

Self-control and Task Timing Shift Self-efficacy and Influence Willingness to Engage in Effortful Tasks

PubMed Central

Ein-Gar, Danit; Steinhart, Yael

2017-01-01

Self-efficacy constitutes a key factor that influences people's inclination to engage in effortful tasks. In this study, we focus on an interesting interplay between two prominent factors known to influence engagement in effortful tasks: the timing of the task (i.e., whether the task is scheduled to take place in the near or distant future) and individuals' levels of self-control. Across three studies, we show that these two factors have an interacting effect on self-efficacy. Low self-control (LSC) individuals report higher self-efficacy for distant-future effortful tasks than for near-future tasks, whereas high self-control (HSC) individuals report higher self-efficacy for near-future tasks than for distant future tasks. We further demonstrate how self-efficacy then molds individuals' willingness to engage in those effortful tasks. Given that a particular task may comprise effortful aspects alongside more enjoyable aspects, we show that the effects we observe emerge with regard to a task whose effortful aspects are salient and that the effects are eliminated when the enjoyable aspects of that same task are highlighted. PMID:29075225

Current and Future Urban Stormwater Flooding Scenarios in the Southeast Florida Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

This study computed rainfall-fed stormwater flooding under the historical and future reference scenarios for the Southeast Coasts Basin of Florida. A large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model was developed using the U.S. E.P.A. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). The model parameterized important processes of urban hydrology, groundwater, and sea level, while including hydroclimatological variables and land use features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. It was then used to estimate the sensitivity of stormwater runoff to the reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and different land use/land cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Furthermore, historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets were also estimated for the Florida Southeast Coasts Basin by incorporating climatic projections from different GCMs and RCMs, as well as by using relevant projections of sea level and land use/cover. Comparative synthesis of the historical and future scenarios along with the results of sensitivity analysis can aid in efficient management of stormwater flooding for the southeast Florida coasts and similar urban centers under a changing regime of climate, sea level, land use/cover and hydrology.

Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Morphological Changes on Tidal Hydrodynamics in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passeri, D. L.; Hagen, S. C.; Plant, N. G.; Bilskie, M. V.

2014-12-01

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal environments with increased erosion, inundation of wetlands, and changes in hydrodynamic patterns. Planning for the effects of SLR requires understanding the coupled response of SLR, geomorphic and hydrodynamic processes; this will provide crucial information for managers to make informed decisions for human and natural communities. Evaluating changes in tidal hydrodynamics under future scenarios is a key aspect for understanding the effects of SLR on coastal systems; tidal hydrodynamics influence inundation, circulation patterns, sediment transport processes, shoreline erosion, and productivity of marshes and other species. This study evaluates the dynamic effects of SLR and morphologic change on tidal hydrodynamics along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast from Mississippi to the Florida panhandle. A large-scale hydrodynamic model is used to simulate astronomic tides under present (circa 2005), and future conditions (circa 2050 and 2100). The model is modified with specific SLR scenarios, morphology, and shorelines that represent the conditions at each of the time periods. Future sea levels for the years 2050 and 2100 are determined using the Parris et al. (2012) projections. To make projections of future morphology, a Bayesian Network (BN) is implemented. The BN is used to define relationships between forcing mechanisms and coastal responses based on long-term relative SLR, mean wave height, long-term shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, geomorphic setting and coastal slope. Probabilistic predictions of future shoreline positions and dune heights are developed for each SLR scenario for the years 2050 and 2100. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is then updated to reflect the future morphologic changes. Comparison of present and future conditions illustrates the hydrodynamic response of the system to the changing landscape. Changes in variables such as harmonic tidal constituents, tidal range, tidal prism, tidal datums, circulation patterns and inundation areas are examined. This provides a better understanding of the physical processes of the current state of the NGOM and gives insight into how future SLR and coastal landscape changes may affect hydrodynamics within the NGOM estuary systems.

Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level.

PubMed

Marques-Toledo, Cecilia de Almeida; Degener, Carolin Marlen; Vinhal, Livia; Coelho, Giovanini; Meira, Wagner; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

2017-07-01

Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to 'nowcast', i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also 'forecast' disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low-cost. Tweets are able to successfully nowcast, i.e. estimate Dengue in the present week, but also forecast, i.e. predict Dengue at until 8 weeks in the future, both at country and city level with high estimation capacity.

The C130 Hercules Acquisition Program: A Case Study of the Potential Impact of a System Level Warranty Application.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-09-01

Orfice in the Aeronautical Systems Division, and the Air Force Contract Law Center, provided support that ensured success from the very start. Last, but...76 Recommendations for Future Researcn ........ .. 79 Appendix A: Air Force Contract Law Center Suggested Systems Level Warranty...analysis of the findings was accomplisned by the Air Force Contract Law Center.’ Benefits from applying a system level warranty to the C-hiO were

The Usefulness of Assessing and Identifying Workers' Temperaments and Their Effects on Occupational Stress in the Workplace.

PubMed

Deguchi, Yasuhiko; Iwasaki, Shinichi; Konishi, Akihito; Ishimoto, Hideyuki; Ogawa, Koichiro; Fukuda, Yuichi; Nitta, Tomoko; Inoue, Koki

2016-01-01

The relationship between temperaments and mental disorders has been reported in previous studies, but there has been little attention to temperaments in the occupational safety and health research. The aim of this study was to clarify the effects of temperaments on occupational stress among local government employees. The subjects were 145 Japanese daytime workers in local government. Temperaments were assessed by the Temperament Evaluation of Memphis, Pisa, Paris, and San Diego-Auto questionnaire (TEMPS-A). Occupational stress was assessed using the Generic Job Stress Questionnaire (GJSQ). Hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis was used. Hyperthymic temperament predicted a higher level of job control, and a lower level of role ambiguity and job future ambiguity. Irritable temperament predicted a lower level of social support from supervisors and a higher level of role conflict, variance in workload and intragroup conflict. Anxious temperament predicted a lower level of social support from coworkers and a higher level of job future ambiguity. The sample size was small. Only Japanese local government employees were surveyed. Hyperthymic temperament played a protective role, and irritable, anxious temperament played a vulnerable role against one's own occupational stress and recognizing the roles they play in work life would lead to self-insight. Additionally, recognition of the temperaments and temperament-related stressors by one's supervisors or coworkers would facilitate provision of social support.

The Usefulness of Assessing and Identifying Workers’ Temperaments and Their Effects on Occupational Stress in the Workplace

PubMed Central

Konishi, Akihito; Ishimoto, Hideyuki; Ogawa, Koichiro; Fukuda, Yuichi; Nitta, Tomoko; Inoue, Koki

2016-01-01

The relationship between temperaments and mental disorders has been reported in previous studies, but there has been little attention to temperaments in the occupational safety and health research. The aim of this study was to clarify the effects of temperaments on occupational stress among local government employees. The subjects were 145 Japanese daytime workers in local government. Temperaments were assessed by the Temperament Evaluation of Memphis, Pisa, Paris, and San Diego-Auto questionnaire (TEMPS-A). Occupational stress was assessed using the Generic Job Stress Questionnaire (GJSQ). Hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis was used. Hyperthymic temperament predicted a higher level of job control, and a lower level of role ambiguity and job future ambiguity. Irritable temperament predicted a lower level of social support from supervisors and a higher level of role conflict, variance in workload and intragroup conflict. Anxious temperament predicted a lower level of social support from coworkers and a higher level of job future ambiguity. The sample size was small. Only Japanese local government employees were surveyed. Hyperthymic temperament played a protective role, and irritable, anxious temperament played a vulnerable role against one’s own occupational stress and recognizing the roles they play in work life would lead to self-insight. Additionally, recognition of the temperaments and temperament-related stressors by one’s supervisors or coworkers would facilitate provision of social support. PMID:27227771

Episodic Future Thinking in Semantic Dementia: A Cognitive and fMRI Study

PubMed Central

Viard, Armelle; Piolino, Pascale; Belliard, Serge; de La Sayette, Vincent; Desgranges, Béatrice; Eustache, Francis

2014-01-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is characterized by gradual loss of semantic memory. While episodic autobiographical memory seems relatively preserved, behavioral studies suggest that episodic future thinking is impaired. We used fMRI to measure brain activity in four SD patients (JPL, EP, LL, EG) while they envisioned future events and remembered personal past events. Twelve healthy elders served as controls. Episodic quality, emotion, mental imagery and level of consciousness (via remember/know judgements) were checked at debriefing. We analyzed the future compared to the past for each patient. All patients presented lateral temporal atrophy, but varied in terms of frontal and anterior hippocampal atrophy. Patient JPL presented atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and left anterior hippocampus and was unable to engage in episodic future thinking, despite hyperactivations in frontal and occipital regions. Patient EP presented no atrophy in the anterior hippocampus, but atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyrus and had difficulties to engage in episodic future thinking. Patient LL presented atrophy in left anterior hippocampus, but hyperactivated its right counterpart for future compared to past thinking, permitting her to project efficiently in the future in an episodic way. Patient EG presented no atrophy in the superior medial frontal gyri or anterior hippocampi and was able to engage in episodic future thinking. Altogether, patients' future projections differed depending on the severity and localization of their atrophy. The functional integrity of bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and anterior hippocampus appear crucial for episodic future thinking: atrophy of both structures strongly impairs future projection, while integrity of these structures or hyperactivation of residual tissue normalizes episodic future projection. PMID:25333997

Silicon-sheet and thin-film cell and module technology potential: Issue study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimada, K.; Costogue, E. N.; Ferber, R. R.

1984-01-01

The development of high-efficiency low-cost crystalline silicon ribbon and thih-film solar cells for the energy national photovoltaics program was examined. The findings of an issue study conducted are presented. The collected data identified the status of the technology, future research needs, and problems experienced. The potentials of present research activities to meet the Federal/industry long-term technical goal of achieving 15 cents per kilowatt-hour levelized PV energy cost are assessed. Recommendations for future research needs related to crystalline silicon ribbon and thin-film technologies for flat-plate collectors are also included.

Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.

2014-02-01

Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario. In this study, we advance this paradigm by adjusting the model framework so that it reflects not only a change in sea state but also variations to the landscape (morphologic changes and urbanization of coastal cities). We utilize a numerical model of the Mississippi and Alabama coast to simulate the response of hurricane storm surge to changes in sea level, land use/land cover, and land surface elevation for past (1960), present (2005), and future (2050) conditions. The results show that the storm surge response to SLR is dynamic and sensitive to changes in the landscape. We introduce a new modeling framework that includes modification of the landscape when producing storm surge models for future conditions.

Future Nuisance Flooding at Boston Caused by Astronomical Tides Alone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Foster, Grant

2016-01-01

Sea level rise necessarily triggers more occurrences of minor, or nuisance, flooding events along coastlines, a fact well documented in recent studies. At some locations nuisance flooding can be brought about merely by high spring tides, independent of storms, winds, or other atmospheric conditions. Analysis of observed water levels at Boston indicates that tidal flooding began to occur there in 2011 and will become more frequent in subsequent years. A compilation of all predicted nuisance-flooding events, induced by astronomical tides alone, is presented through year 2050. The accuracy of the tide prediction is improved when several unusual properties of Gulf of Maine tides, including secular changes, are properly accounted for. Future mean sea-level rise at Boston cannot be predicted with comparable confidence, so two very different climate scenarios are adopted; both predict a large increase in the frequency and the magnitude of tidal flooding events.

The effects of violence exposure on the development of impulse control and future orientation across adolescence and early adulthood: Time-specific and generalized effects in a sample of juvenile offenders.

PubMed

Monahan, Kathryn C; King, Kevin M; Shulman, Elizabeth P; Cauffman, Elizabeth; Chassin, Laurie

2015-11-01

Impulse control and future orientation increase across adolescence, but little is known about how contextual factors shape the development of these capacities. The present study investigates how stress exposure, operationalized as exposure to violence, alters the developmental pattern of impulse control and future orientation across adolescence and early adulthood. In a sample of 1,354 serious juvenile offenders, higher exposure to violence was associated with lower levels of future orientation at age 15 and suppressed development of future orientation from ages 15 to 25. Increases in witnessing violence or victimization were linked to declines in impulse control 1 year later, but only during adolescence. Thus, beyond previous experiences of exposure to violence, witnessing violence and victimization during adolescence conveys unique risk for suppressed development of self-regulation.

Future potential country doctor: the perspectives of German GPs.

PubMed

Natanzon, Iris; Szecsenyi, Joachim; Ose, Dominik; Joos, Stefanie

2010-01-01

There is a shortage of general practitioners (GPs) in many countries, especially in rural areas. There are several reasons for this shortage. Over the last decade, fewer medical students in Germany have decided to work in patient care, even fewer in general practice and fewer still in general practice in rural areas. The aim of this study was to explore the 'pros and cons' of GPs' work in rural areas and to identify from GPs' perspective possible measures for counteracting future GP shortages. Within a qualitative approach, 16 semi-structured interviews were conducted with GPs. Data analysis was carried out using qualitative content analysis. The results were categorized into three main inductively-derived categories: personal, professional and regional/structural level. A higher level of self-confidence and a higher 'feel-good' factor due to GPs originating from rural areas were positive aspects at the personal level. Regarding the professional level, a low level of competition and varied work made a GP's profession attractive in rural areas. Negative aspects were mostly apparent at the regional/structural level, such a low earnings and few leisure facilities. Measures to counter the lack of GPs in rural areas were explored on all three levels: on the personal level, more optimism and resulting satisfaction on the part of doctors in rural areas could be improved by enhancing the benefits of being a doctor in a rural area. Regarding the professional level, more group practices are required to make working as a GP in a rural area more attractive. At a regional/structural level, young physicians who originate from rural areas should be recruited to work in rural areas. Financial incentives are regarded as not sufficient to attract enough young physicians to open practices in rural areas. Future action will be required at the personal, professional and regional/structural levels. The origin of medical students (urban or rural) should be considered a relevant predicting factor for recruitment.

Scobee Curricular Units: A Focus on Studies of Space.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, Paul; And Others

The three units of study presented are designed to promote space-related learning opportunities for gifted students and were prepared by recipients of the Scobee curriculum awards. In "Galactic Colonization for Our Future Astronauts" (Jacqueline Shimonauff), elementary-level students simulate a space experience in which a ship carries materials…

Can Facebook informational use foster adolescent civic engagement?

PubMed

Lenzi, Michela; Vieno, Alessio; Altoè, Gianmarco; Scacchi, Luca; Perkins, Douglas D; Zukauskiene, Rita; Santinello, Massimo

2015-06-01

The findings on the association between Social Networking Sites and civic engagement are mixed. The present study aims to evaluate a theoretical model linking the informational use of Internet-based social media (specifically, Facebook) with civic competencies and intentions for future civic engagement, taking into account the mediating role of civic discussions with family and friends and sharing the news online. Participants were 114 Italian high school students aged 14-17 years (57 % boys). Path analysis was used to evaluate the proposed theoretical model. Results showed that Facebook informational use was associated with higher levels of adolescent perceived competence for civic action, both directly and through the mediation of civic discussion with parents and friends (offline). Higher levels of civic competencies, then, were associated with a stronger intention to participate in the civic domain in the future. Our findings suggest that Facebook may provide adolescents with additional tools through which they can learn civic activities or develop the skills necessary to participate in the future.

Qualitative Future Safety Risk Identification an Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barr, Lawrence C.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the results of a high-level qualitative study that was conducted to identify future aviation safety risks and to assess the potential impacts to the National Airspace System (NAS) of NASA Aviation Safety research on these risks. Multiple external sources (for example, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Flight Safety Foundation, the National Research Council, and the Joint Planning and Development Office) were used to develop a compilation of future safety issues risks, also referred to as future tall poles. The primary criterion used to identify the most critical future safety risk issues was that the issue must be cited in several of these sources as a safety area of concern. The tall poles in future safety risk, in no particular order of importance, are as follows: Runway Safety, Loss of Control In Flight, Icing Ice Detection, Loss of Separation, Near Midair Collision Human Fatigue, Increasing Complexity and Reliance on Automation, Vulnerability Discovery, Data Sharing and Dissemination, and Enhanced Survivability in the Event of an Accident.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

The differential contributions of visual imagery constructs on autobiographical thinking.

PubMed

Aydin, Cagla

2018-02-01

There is a growing theoretical and empirical consensus on the central role of visual imagery in autobiographical memory. However, findings from studies that explore how individual differences in visual imagery are reflected on autobiographical thinking do not present a coherent story. One reason for the mixed findings was suggested to be the treatment of visual imagery as an undifferentiated construct while evidence shows that there is more than one type of visual imagery. The present study investigates the relative contributions of different imagery constructs; namely, object and spatial imagery, on autobiographical memory processes. Additionally, it explores whether a similar relation extends to imagining the future. The results indicate that while object imagery was significantly correlated with several phenomenological characteristics, such as the level of sensory and perceptual details for past events - but not for future events - spatial imagery predicted the level of episodic specificity for both past and future events. We interpret these findings as object imagery being recruited in tasks of autobiographical memory that employ reflective processes while spatial imagery is engaged during direct retrieval of event details. Implications for the role of visual imagery in autobiographical thinking processes are discussed.

Body mass index influences infliximab post-infusion levels and correlates with prospective loss of response to the drug in a cohort of inflammatory bowel disease patients under maintenance therapy with Infliximab.

PubMed

Scaldaferri, Franco; D'Ambrosio, Daria; Holleran, Grainne; Poscia, Andrea; Petito, Valentina; Lopetuso, Loris; Graziani, Cristina; Laterza, Lucrezia; Pistone, Maria Teresa; Pecere, Silvia; Currò, Diego; Gaetani, Eleonora; Armuzzi, Alessandro; Papa, Alfredo; Cammarota, Giovanni; Gasbarrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

Infliximab is an effective treatment for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Studies differ regarding the influence of body mass index (BMI) on the response to infliximab, with the majority of studies indicating that increased BMI may be associated with a poorer response to Infliximab. However, the pharmacokinetic mechanisms causing this have not yet been reported. Examine the correlation between BMI/immunosuppressant use with clinical response, trough and post-infusion levels of infliximab, tumour necrosis factor-α(TNF-α) and anti-drug antibodies(ATI), and determine if these factors can predict future response. We collected serum from 24 patients receiving Infliximab before and 30 minutes following infusion. Clinical parameters were collected retrospectively and prospectively. ELISA measurements of infliximab, TNF-α and ATI were performed. We confirmed that patients with higher infliximab trough levels have a better response rate and that patients with an elevated BMI display a higher rate of loss of response (20%). Patients with a higher BMI had elevated post-infusion levels of infliximab. Additionally, the ratio of IFX/TNF-α trough levels correlated with clinical response to the following infusion. This study confirms that an elevated BMI is associated with a poorer response to infliximab. For the first time, we describe that a higher BMI correlates with higher post-infusion levels, however this does not correlate with a higher rate of response to the drug, suggesting that circulating drug levels do not correlate with tissue levels. Furthermore, in our small cohort of patients, we identified a possible predictive marker of future response to treatment which may be used to guide dose escalation and predict non-response to infliximab.

Educational trajectories of graduate students in physics education research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Dusen, Ben; Barthelemy, Ramón S.; Henderson, Charles

2014-12-01

Physics education research (PER) is a rapidly growing area of PhD specialization. In this article we examine the trajectories that led respondents into a PER graduate program as well as their expected future trajectories. Data were collected in the form of an online survey sent to graduate students in PER. Our findings show a lack of visibility of PER as a field of study, a dominance of work at the undergraduate level, and a mismatch of future desires and expectations. We suggest that greater exposure is needed so PER is known as a field of inquiry for graduates, that more emphasis should be placed on research beyond the undergraduate level, and that there needs to be stronger communication to graduate students about potential careers.

The environmental impact of future coal production and use in the EEC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1983-01-01

The aims of this study are to assess the expected increased levels of coal consumption in the European Community up to the year 2000; to estimate to what extent consumer demand is likely to be met by EEC production; to determine the level of polluting emissions which are likely to derive from changes in coal consumption and production; and finally, to compare the environmental impact of alternative, existing or developing means of coal utilisation. Contents: Conclusions; Future coal supply and demand in the EEC; Environmental consequences of coal production and use; Coal extraction; Transport and storage; Coal combustion: air pollution;more » Coal combustion: water pollution; Pollution from solid wastes; Coal conversion process; Environmental control technology; Bibliography.« less

Measurement of historical cliff-top changes and estimation of future trends using GIS data between Bridlington and Hornsea - Holderness Coast (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castedo, Ricardo; de la Vega-Panizo, Rogelio; Fernández-Hernández, Marta; Paredes, Carlos

2015-02-01

A key requirement for effective coastal zone management is good knowledge of historical rates of change and the ability to predict future shoreline evolution, especially for rapidly eroding areas. Historical shoreline recession analysis was used for the prediction of future cliff shoreline positions along a section of 9 km between Bridlington and Hornsea, on the northern area of the Holderness Coast, UK. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1852 to 2011 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) 4.3, extension of ESRI's ArcInfo 10.×. The prediction of future shorelines was performed for the next 40 years using a variety of techniques, ranging from extrapolation from historical data, geometric approaches like the historical trend analysis, to a process-response numerical model that incorporates physically-based equations and geotechnical stability analysis. With climate change and sea-level rise implying that historical rates of change may not be a reliable guide for the future, enhanced visualization of the evolving coastline has the potential to improve awareness of these changing conditions. Following the IPCC, 2013 report, two sea-level rise rates, 2 mm/yr and 6 mm/yr, have been used to estimate future shoreline conditions. This study illustrated that good predictive models, once their limitations are estimated or at least defined, are available for use by managers, planners, engineers, scientists and the public to make better decisions regarding coastal management, development, and erosion-control strategies.

Climate Sensitivity Runs and Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Predicting the Response of the Greater Florida Everglades Ecosystem to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, Jayantha; Barnes, Jenifer; Nungesser, Martha

2015-04-01

It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.

Constraining Future Sea Level Rise Estimates from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nias, I.; Cornford, S. L.; Edwards, T.; Gourmelen, N.; Payne, A. J.

2016-12-01

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) is the primary source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The catchment is particularly susceptible to grounding line retreat, because the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is below sea level and deepening towards its interior. Mass loss from the ASE ice streams, which include Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers, is a major uncertainty on future sea level rise, and understanding the dynamics of these ice streams is essential to constraining this uncertainty. The aim of this study is to construct a distribution of future ASE sea level contributions from an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations and observations of surface elevation change. A 284 member ensemble was performed using BISICLES, a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. Within the ensemble parameters associated with basal traction, ice rheology and sub-shelf melt rate were perturbed, and the effect of bed topography and sliding law were also investigated. Initially each configuration was run to 50 model years. Satellite observations of surface height change were then used within a Bayesian framework to assign likelihoods to each ensemble member. Simulations that better reproduced the current thinning patterns across the catchment were given a higher score. The resulting posterior distribution of sea level contributions is narrower than the prior distribution, although the central estimates of sea level rise are similar between the prior and posterior. The most extreme simulations were eliminated and the remaining ensemble members were extended to 200 years, using a simple melt rate forcing.

The Respiratory Pyramid: From Symptoms to Disease in World Trade Center Exposed Firefighters

PubMed Central

Niles, Justin K.; Webber, Mayris P.; Cohen, Hillel W.; Hall, Charles B.; Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Ye, Fen; Glaser, Michelle S.; Weakley, Jessica; Weiden, Michael D.; Aldrich, Thomas K.; Nolan, Anna; Glass, Lara; Kelly, Kerry J.; Prezant, David J.

2017-01-01

Background This study utilizes a four-level pyramid framework to understand the relationship between symptom reports and/or abnormal pulmonary function and diagnoses of airway diseases (AD), including asthma, recurrent bronchitis and COPD/emphysema in WTC-exposed firefighters. We compare the distribution of pyramid levels at two time-points: by 9/11/2005 and by 9/11/2010. Methods We studied 6,931 WTC-exposed FDNY firefighters who completed a monitoring exam during the early period and at least two additional follow-up exams 9/11/2005–9/11/2010. Results By 9/11/2005 the pyramid structure was as follows: 4,039 (58.3%) in Level 1, no respiratory evaluation or treatment; 1,608 (23.2%) in Level 2, evaluation or treatment without AD diagnosis; 1,005 (14.5%) in Level 3, a single AD diagnosis (asthma, emphysema/COPD, or recurrent bronchitis); 279 (4.0%) in Level 4, asthma and another AD. By 9/11/2010, the pyramid distribution changed considerably, with Level 1 decreasing to 2,612 (37.7% of the cohort), and Levels 3 (N = 1,530) and 4 (N = 796) increasing to 22.1% and 11.5% of the cohort, respectively. Symptoms, spirometry measurements and healthcare utilization were associated with higher pyramid levels. Conclusions Respiratory diagnoses, even four years after a major inhalation event, are not the only drivers of future healthcare utilization. Symptoms and abnormal FEV-1 values must also be considered if clinicians and healthcare administrators are to accurately anticipate future treatment needs, years after initial exposure. PMID:23788055

Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of Lactobacillus helveticus and Bifidobacterium longum for the symptoms of depression

PubMed Central

Romijn, Amy R; Rucklidge, Julia J; Kuijer, Roeline G; Frampton, Chris

2017-01-01

Objectives: This trial investigated whether probiotics improved mood, stress and anxiety in a sample selected for low mood. We also tested whether the presence or severity of irritable bowel syndrome symptoms, and levels of proinflammatory cytokines, brain-derived neurotrophic factor and other blood markers, would predict or impact treatment response. Method: Seventy-nine participants (10 dropouts) not currently taking psychotropic medications with at least moderate scores on self-report mood measures were randomly allocated to receive either a probiotic preparation (containing Lactobacillus helveticus and Bifidobacterium longum) or a matched placebo, in a double-blind trial for 8 weeks. Data were analysed as intent-to-treat. Results: No significant difference was found between the probiotic and placebo groups on any psychological outcome measure (Cohen’s d range = 0.07–0.16) or any blood-based biomarker. At end-point, 9 (23%) of those in the probiotic group showed a ⩾60% change on the Montgomery–Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (responders), compared to 10 (26%) of those in the placebo group (χ12=0.107, p = ns). Baseline vitamin D level was found to moderate treatment effect on several outcome measures. Dry mouth and sleep disruption were reported more frequently in the placebo group. Conclusions: This study found no evidence that the probiotic formulation is effective in treating low mood, or in moderating the levels of inflammatory and other biomarkers. The lack of observed effect on mood symptoms may be due to the severity, chronicity or treatment resistance of the sample; recruiting an antidepressant-naive sample experiencing mild, acute symptoms of low mood, may well yield a different result. Future studies taking a preventative approach or using probiotics as an adjuvant treatment may also be more effective. Vitamin D levels should be monitored in future studies in the area. The results of this trial are preliminary; future studies in the area should not be discouraged. PMID:28068788

A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of Lactobacillus helveticus and Bifidobacterium longum for the symptoms of depression.

PubMed

Romijn, Amy R; Rucklidge, Julia J; Kuijer, Roeline G; Frampton, Chris

2017-08-01

This trial investigated whether probiotics improved mood, stress and anxiety in a sample selected for low mood. We also tested whether the presence or severity of irritable bowel syndrome symptoms, and levels of proinflammatory cytokines, brain-derived neurotrophic factor and other blood markers, would predict or impact treatment response. Seventy-nine participants (10 dropouts) not currently taking psychotropic medications with at least moderate scores on self-report mood measures were randomly allocated to receive either a probiotic preparation (containing Lactobacillus helveticus and Bifidobacterium longum) or a matched placebo, in a double-blind trial for 8 weeks. Data were analysed as intent-to-treat. No significant difference was found between the probiotic and placebo groups on any psychological outcome measure (Cohen's d range = 0.07-0.16) or any blood-based biomarker. At end-point, 9 (23%) of those in the probiotic group showed a ⩾60% change on the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (responders), compared to 10 (26%) of those in the placebo group ([Formula: see text], p = ns). Baseline vitamin D level was found to moderate treatment effect on several outcome measures. Dry mouth and sleep disruption were reported more frequently in the placebo group. This study found no evidence that the probiotic formulation is effective in treating low mood, or in moderating the levels of inflammatory and other biomarkers. The lack of observed effect on mood symptoms may be due to the severity, chronicity or treatment resistance of the sample; recruiting an antidepressant-naive sample experiencing mild, acute symptoms of low mood, may well yield a different result. Future studies taking a preventative approach or using probiotics as an adjuvant treatment may also be more effective. Vitamin D levels should be monitored in future studies in the area. The results of this trial are preliminary; future studies in the area should not be discouraged.

Achieving external validity in home advantage research: generalizing crowd noise effects

PubMed Central

Myers, Tony D.

2014-01-01

Different factors have been postulated to explain the home advantage phenomenon in sport. One plausible explanation investigated has been the influence of a partisan home crowd on sports officials' decisions. Different types of studies have tested the crowd influence hypothesis including purposefully designed experiments. However, while experimental studies investigating crowd influences have high levels of internal validity, they suffer from a lack of external validity; decision-making in a laboratory setting bearing little resemblance to decision-making in live sports settings. This focused review initially considers threats to external validity in applied and theoretical experimental research. Discussing how such threats can be addressed using representative design by focusing on a recently published study that arguably provides the first experimental evidence of the impact of live crowd noise on officials in sport. The findings of this controlled experiment conducted in a real tournament setting offer a level of confirmation of the findings of laboratory studies in the area. Finally directions for future research and the future conduct of crowd noise studies are discussed. PMID:24917839

The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies

PubMed Central

Hurlstone, Mark J.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R.; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a “foregone-gain”—incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts—rather than as a “loss”—incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts. PMID:25501009

The effect of framing and normative messages in building support for climate policies.

PubMed

Hurlstone, Mark J; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a "foregone-gain"--incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts--rather than as a "loss"--incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts.

2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (2G RLV). Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matlock, Steve; Sides, Steve; Kmiec, Tom; Arbogast, Tim; Mayers, Tom; Doehnert, Bill

2001-01-01

This is a revised final report and addresses all of the work performed on this program. Specifically, it covers vehicle architecture background, definition of six baseline engine cycles, reliability baseline (space shuttle main engine QRAS), and component level reliability/performance/cost for the six baseline cycles, and selection of 3 cycles for further study. This report further addresses technology improvement selection and component level reliability/performance/cost for the three cycles selected for further study, as well as risk reduction plans, and recommendation for future studies.

Assessment of Immune Status, Latent Viral Reactivation and Stress during Long Duration Bed Rest as an Analog for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crucian, Brian E.; Stowe, Raymond P.; Mehta, Satish K.; Yetman, Deborah L.; Leaf, Melanie J.; Pierson, Duane L.; Sams, Clarence F.

2007-01-01

As logistical access for in-flight space research becomes more limited, the use of ground based spaceflight analogs for life science studies will increase. These studies are particularly important as NASA progresses towards the Lunar and eventually Mars missions outlined in the 2005 Vision for Space Exploration. Countermeasures must be developed to mitigate the clinical risks associated with exploration class space missions. In an effort to coordinate studies across multiple disciplines, NASA has selected 90-day bed rest as the analog of choice, and initiated the Flight Analogs Project to implement research studies with or without the evaluation of countermeasures. Although bed rest is not the analog of choice to evaluate spaceflight-associated immune dysfunction, a standard Immune Assessment was developed for subjects participating in the 90-day bed best studies. The Immune Assessment consists of: leukocyte subset distribution, T cell functional responses, intracellular cytokine production profiles, latent viral reactivation, virus specific T cell levels, virus specific T cell function, stress hormone levels and a behavioral assessment using stress questionnaires. The purpose of the assessment during the initial studies (without countermeasure) is to establish control data against which future studies (with countermeasure) will be evaluated. It is believed that some of the countermeasures planned to be evaluated in future studies, such as exercise, pharmacologic intervention or nutritional supplementation, have the ability to impact immune function. Therefore immunity will likely be monitored during those studies. The data generated during the first three control studies showed that the subjects in general did not display altered peripheral leukocyte subsets, constitutive immune activation, significant latent viral reactivation (EBV, VZV) or altered T cell function. Interestingly, for some subjects the level of constitutively activated T cells (CD8+/CD69+) and virus-specific T cells (CMV and EBV) both decreased during the studies. This likely reflects the isolation of the subjects (from an immunological perspective) and absence of everyday subclinical challenges to the immune system. Cortisol levels (plasma and saliva) did not vary significantly during the studies. This probably reflects a lack of physiological stress during the study and the stress of readaptation to the 1xG environment at R+1. These data demonstrate the absence of significant immune alteration during 90-day bed rest, and establish control data against which future studies (including countermeasures) may be compared.

Strengthening Sustainability and Resiliency of a Future Force, Phase 1. FY2010-2011 Summer Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

Resiliency of a Future Force: Phase I Interim Report - 48 Please Enter Custom Water factor adjustments below: m Unit Level* (Gat/Ptisan/ Dti ...cost of mov- ing the consumables in terms of the assets required to move the commodity and the security Intra Theater Resupply: 4 Legs Army...Expeditionary Force-Logistics ResupplyDetails Legl Leg 2 Leg 3 Leg 4 Resupply Trip Legs Super FOB (Div)to Base Camp (bde) Base Camp (Bde) to FOB (Bn

Water Resources Study for Metropolitan Chester Creek Basin, Pennsylvania.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-09-01

premium is the second most effective method of calling attention to the flood risk . The first is a flood itself. Presumably the cost will encourage the...communities in the Basin. Due to the high risks in- volved people should strive to keep the coverage current and at the maximim level allowed. Permanent Flood...result of future development of upstream areas, and the eight lives lost in the flood of record and future risk of the loss of lives. I have determined

Green space propulsion: Opportunities and prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gohardani, Amir S.; Stanojev, Johann; Demairé, Alain; Anflo, Kjell; Persson, Mathias; Wingborg, Niklas; Nilsson, Christer

2014-11-01

Currently, toxic and carcinogenic hydrazine propellants are commonly used in spacecraft propulsion. These propellants impose distinctive environmental challenges and consequential hazardous conditions. With an increasing level of future space activities and applications, the significance of greener space propulsion becomes even more pronounced. In this article, a selected number of promising green space propellants are reviewed and investigated for various space missions. In-depth system studies in relation to the aforementioned propulsion architectures further unveil possible approaches for advanced green propulsion systems of the future.

Sex/Gender Differences and Autism: Setting the Scene for Future Research

PubMed Central

Lai, Meng-Chuan; Lombardo, Michael V.; Auyeung, Bonnie; Chakrabarti, Bhismadev; Baron-Cohen, Simon

2015-01-01

Objective The relationship between sex/gender differences and autism has attracted a variety of research ranging from clinical and neurobiological to etiological, stimulated by the male bias in autism prevalence. Findings are complex and do not always relate to each other in a straightforward manner. Distinct but interlinked questions on the relationship between sex/gender differences and autism remain underaddressed. To better understand the implications from existing research and to help design future studies, we propose a 4-level conceptual framework to clarify the embedded themes. Method We searched PubMed for publications before September 2014 using search terms “‘sex OR gender OR females’ AND autism.” A total of 1,906 articles were screened for relevance, along with publications identified via additional literature reviews, resulting in 329 articles that were reviewed. Results Level 1, “Nosological and diagnostic challenges,” concerns the question, “How should autism be defined and diagnosed in males and females?” Level 2, “Sex/gender-independent and sex/gender-dependent characteristics,” addresses the question, “What are the similarities and differences between males and females with autism?” Level 3, “General models of etiology: liability and threshold,” asks the question, “How is the liability for developing autism linked to sex/gender?” Level 4, “Specific etiological–developmental mechanisms,” focuses on the question, “What etiological–developmental mechanisms of autism are implicated by sex/gender and/or sexual/gender differentiation?” Conclusions Using this conceptual framework, findings can be more clearly summarized, and the implications of the links between findings from different levels can become clearer. Based on this 4-level framework, we suggest future research directions, methodology, and specific topics in sex/gender differences and autism. PMID:25524786

An Evaluation of Selected Populations for HIV-1 Vaccine Cohort Development in Nigeria.

PubMed

Njoku, Ogbonnaya S; Manak, Mark M; O'Connell, Robert J; Shutt, Ashley L W; Malia, Jennifer A; Heipertz, Richard A; Tovanabutra, Sodsai; Milazzo, Mark J; Akintunde, Gideon Akindiran; Alabi, Abraham S; Suleiman, Aminu; Ogundeji, Amos A; Kene, Terfa S; Nelson, Robbie; Ayemoba, Ojor R; Singer, Darrell E; Robb, Merlin L; Peel, Sheila A; Michael, Nelson L

2016-01-01

Development of a globally effective HIV-1 vaccine will need to encompass Nigeria, one of the hardest hit areas, with an estimated 3.2 million people living with HIV. This cross-sectional Institutional Review Board (IRB) approved study was conducted in 2009-12 at four market sites and two highway settlements sites in Nigeria to identify and characterize populations at high risk for HIV; engage support of local stakeholders; and assess the level of interest in future vaccine studies. Demographic, HIV risk data were collected by structured interviewer-administered questionnaires. Blood samples were tested on site by HIV rapid diagnostic tests, followed by rigorous confirmatory testing, subtype evaluation and testing for HBV and HCV markers in a clinical reference laboratory. Of 3229 study participants, 326 were HIV infected as confirmed by Western Blot or RNA, with a HIV prevalence of 15.4%-23.9% at highway settlements and 3.1%-9.1% at market sites. There was no observable correlation of prevalence of HIV-1 (10.1%) with HBV (10.9%) or HCV (2.9%). Major HIV-1 subtypes included CRF02_AG (37.5%); G (27.5%); G/CRF02_AG (25.9%); and non-typeable (8.9%), with 0.3% HIV-2. Univariate analysis found age, gender, marital status, level of education, and sex under substance influence as significant risk factors for HIV (p<0.001). Educating and winning the trust of local community leadership ensured high level of participation (53.3-77.9%) and willingness to participate in future studies (95%). The high HIV prevalence and high risk of HIV infection at highway settlement and mammy markets make them well suited for targeting future vaccine trials in Nigeria.

An Evaluation of Selected Populations for HIV-1 Vaccine Cohort Development in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Njoku, Ogbonnaya S.; O’Connell, Robert J.; Shutt, Ashley L. W.; Malia, Jennifer A.; Heipertz, Richard A.; Tovanabutra, Sodsai; Milazzo, Mark J.; Akintunde, Gideon Akindiran; Alabi, Abraham S.; Suleiman, Aminu; Ogundeji, Amos A.; Kene, Terfa S.; Nelson, Robbie; Ayemoba, Ojor R.; Singer, Darrell E.; Robb, Merlin L.; Peel, Sheila A.; Michael, Nelson L.

2016-01-01

Development of a globally effective HIV-1 vaccine will need to encompass Nigeria, one of the hardest hit areas, with an estimated 3.2 million people living with HIV. This cross-sectional Institutional Review Board (IRB) approved study was conducted in 2009–12 at four market sites and two highway settlements sites in Nigeria to identify and characterize populations at high risk for HIV; engage support of local stakeholders; and assess the level of interest in future vaccine studies. Demographic, HIV risk data were collected by structured interviewer-administered questionnaires. Blood samples were tested on site by HIV rapid diagnostic tests, followed by rigorous confirmatory testing, subtype evaluation and testing for HBV and HCV markers in a clinical reference laboratory. Of 3229 study participants, 326 were HIV infected as confirmed by Western Blot or RNA, with a HIV prevalence of 15.4%-23.9% at highway settlements and 3.1%-9.1% at market sites. There was no observable correlation of prevalence of HIV-1 (10.1%) with HBV (10.9%) or HCV (2.9%). Major HIV-1 subtypes included CRF02_AG (37.5%); G (27.5%); G/CRF02_AG (25.9%); and non-typeable (8.9%), with 0.3% HIV-2. Univariate analysis found age, gender, marital status, level of education, and sex under substance influence as significant risk factors for HIV (p<0.001). Educating and winning the trust of local community leadership ensured high level of participation (53.3–77.9%) and willingness to participate in future studies (95%). The high HIV prevalence and high risk of HIV infection at highway settlement and mammy markets make them well suited for targeting future vaccine trials in Nigeria. PMID:27936236

Lower amygdala volume in men is associated with childhood aggression, early psychopathic traits, and future violence.

PubMed

Pardini, Dustin A; Raine, Adrian; Erickson, Kirk; Loeber, Rolf

2014-01-01

Reduced amygdala volume has been implicated in the development of severe and persistent aggression and the development of psychopathic personality. With longitudinal data, the current study examined whether male subjects with lower amygdala volume have a history of aggression and psychopathic features dating back to childhood and are at increased risk for engaging in future aggression/violence. Participants were selected from a longitudinal study of 503 male subjects initially recruited when they were in the first grade in 1986-1987. At age 26, a subsample of 56 men with varying histories of violence was recruited for a neuroimaging substudy. Automated segmentation was used to index individual differences in amygdala volume. Analyses examined the association between amygdala volume and levels of aggression and psychopathic features of participants measured in childhood and adolescence. Analyses also examined whether amygdala volume was associated with violence and psychopathic traits assessed at a 3-year follow-up. Men with lower amygdala volume exhibited higher levels of aggression and psychopathic features from childhood to adulthood. Lower amygdala volume was also associated with aggression, violence, and psychopathic traits at a 3-year follow-up, even after controlling for earlier levels of these features. All effects remained after accounting for several potential confounds. This represents the first prospective study to demonstrate that men with lower amygdala volume have a longstanding history of aggression and psychopathic features and are at increased risk for committing future violence. Studies should further examine whether specific amygdala abnormalities might be a useful biomarker for severe and persistent aggression. Copyright © 2014 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

2017-04-01

The coastal zone is the natural border between the sea and the mainland, and it is constantly under the influence of marine and land-based natural and human-induced pressure. Compound floods are extreme events occurring in coastal areas where the interaction of joint high sea level and large amount of precipitation causes extreme floodings. Typically the risk of flooding in coastal areas is defined analysing either sea level or precipitation driven floodings, however compound floods should be considered to avoid an underestimation of the risk. In the future, the human pressure at the coastal zone is expected to increase, urging for a comprehensive analysis of the compound flooding risk under different climate change scenarios. In this study we introduce the concept of "potential risk" as we investigate how often large amount of precipitation and high sea level may co-occur, and not the effective impact due to the interaction of these two hazards. The effective risk of compound flooding in a specific place depends also on the local orography and on the existing protections. The estimation of the potential risk of compound flooding is useful to individuate places where an effective risk of compound flooding may exist, and where further studies would be useful to get more precise information on the local risk. We estimate the potential risk of compound flooding along the European coastal zone incorporating the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis for the past and present state, and the future projections from two RCP scenarios (namely the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) as derived from 8 CMIP5 models of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea level data are estimated by forcing the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow with 6-hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Based on sea level (storm surge and astronomical tide) and precipitation joint occurrence analysis, a map of the potential compound flooding risk along the European coast is proposed and critical places with high potential risk are identified. For these critical places, we plan to asses the potential compound flood risk driven by coinciding extreme values of sea level and river discharge. Finally, we analyse the atmospheric large scale processes that lead to compound floods and their variation under future climate change scenarios.

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE PAGES

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; ...

2016-06-16

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Where Can We Find Future K-12 Science and Math Teachers? A Search by Academic Year, Discipline, and Academic Performance Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moin, Laura J.; Dorfield, Jennifer K.; Schunn, Christian D.

2005-01-01

Responding to the increasing math and science teacher shortage in the United States, this study intended to determine which science, engineering, and math (SEM) majors during which years in their undergraduate education and from which academic performance levels are most interested in K-12 teaching. Results may aid policymakers and practitioners…

Coastal inundation risk assessment due to subsidence and sea level rise in a Mediterranean alluvial plain (Volturno coastal plain - southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciro Aucelli, Pietro Patrizio; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Incontri, Pietro; Rizzo, Angela; Vilardo, Giuseppe; Benassai, Guido; Buonocore, Berardino; Pappone, Gerardo

2017-11-01

Interdisciplinary studies of the last years highlight that the Italian coasts are significantly subject to retreat and to inundation by sea ingression due to natural and anthropic causes. In this study, the effects of future relative sea level have been evaluated for the Volturno River Plain, one of the widest coastal plain in southern Italy. The plain is characterized by high economical and ecological value, for the presence of farm activities, tourist structures and wetland protected zones. The study area is potentially prone to coastal flooding due to its very low topography and because it is affected by a severe subsidence, which emphasize the local effect of sea level rise due to the ongoing climate changes. In accordance with the guidelines of the MEDFLOOD project, the areas prone to inundation in the years 2065 and 2100 have been evaluated by comparing the future topographical information and expected relative sea level scenarios. The local Vertical Ground Displacements have been derived by PS-InSAR processing data whilst the mean values of the scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 provided by the IPCC (2014) have been used as future sea level projections in 2065 and 2100. The PS-InSar data elaboration shows that the area affected by subsidence corresponds to 35% of the Volturno plain and that the annual rate of the phenomenon ranges between -1 and -25 mm/yr. The inundation analysis, based on the classification of the areas in four hazard classes, indicates that in 2065 the zones located below the sea level will increase approximately of 50% respect to the present conditions, while between 2065 and 2100 the increase can be at least of 60% (IPCC, RCP 8.5 scenarios). Considering the socio-economical and ecological exposure, evaluated following the EUROSION project guidelines, the coastal flooding risk maps have been produced. Almost 8.2 km2 and 14.4 km2 of the investigated area has to be considered subject to very high marine inundation risk in 2065 and 2100, respectively.

A pilot study of the impact of bovine spongiform encephalopathy on the futures of rural youth and Canadian farming.

PubMed

Cook, Trevor M; Brook, Ryan K; Sindhwani, Madhu; Thurston, Wilfreda E

2011-01-01

There is an abundance of literature examining the economic impact of Canada's bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak, but few studies examined the impact of such a crisis on health at the individual, family, or community levels. In particular, rural youth represent an under-researched population despite being at risk for a unique set of social and health concerns. In this pilot study, our objectives were to explore how rural youth responded to Canada's BSE crisis and how they perceived themselves, their families, and their communities to have been impacted. Seven youths (n = 7), recruited from within a university setting using a snowball sampling method, were interviewed. They represent a segment of rural, agriculturally based youth who are resilient due to good parental support. Although they reported high stress in their families during the immediate crisis in 2003, they did not report lasting high levels of stress or negative health effects due to BSE. They did report a decline in rural community health, identifying a reduction in community activities and in the participation of families in community activities. Participants identified elements that discourage youth from pursuing farming as a career and expressed concern for the future of family farming. The results are discussed in terms of the ability of agriculturally based youth to make the transition to adulthood. The implications have importance for future research and policy that addresses the structural supports for choice making, the long-term success for rural youth in transitioning to adult status, and the future of agriculture.

Predicting location-specific extreme coastal floods in the future climate by introducing a probabilistic method to calculate maximum elevation of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of water level variations and wind waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leijala, Ulpu; Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Havu

2017-04-01

Future coastal management continuously strives for more location-exact and precise methods to investigate possible extreme sea level events and to face flooding hazards in the most appropriate way. Evaluating future flooding risks by understanding the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level variations and wind waves is one of the means to make more comprehensive flooding hazard analysis, and may at first seem like a straightforward task to solve. Nevertheless, challenges and limitations such as availability of time series of the sea level and wave height components, the quality of data, significant locational variability of coastal wave height, as well as assumptions to be made depending on the study location, make the task more complicated. In this study, we present a statistical method for combining location-specific probability distributions of water level variations (including local sea level observations and global mean sea level rise) and wave run-up (based on wave buoy measurements). The goal of our method is to obtain a more accurate way to account for the waves when making flooding hazard analysis on the coast compared to the approach of adding a separate fixed wave action height on top of sea level -based flood risk estimates. As a result of our new method, we gain maximum elevation heights with different return periods of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of both phenomena, "the green water". We also introduce a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the properties and functioning of our method. The sensitivity test is based on using theoretical wave distributions representing different alternatives of wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with the sea level distribution, we get information on how the different wave height conditions and shape of the wave height distribution influence the joint results. Our method presented here can be used as an advanced tool to minimize over- and underestimation of the combined effect of sea level variations and wind waves, and to help coastal infrastructure planning and support smooth and safe operation of coastal cities in a changing climate.

TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PLANNING THE GLOBAL CARBON FUTURE

EPA Science Inventory

The atmospheric level of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant variable in the anthropogenic influence of future global climate change. Thus, it is critical to understand the long-term factors affecting its level, especially the longer-range technological considerations. Most rece...

Obesity and the community food environment: a systematic review.

PubMed

Holsten, Joanna E

2009-03-01

To examine the relationship between obesity and the community and/or consumer food environment. A comprehensive literature search of multiple databases was conducted and seven studies were identified for review. Studies were selected if they measured BMI and environmental variables related to food outlets. Environmental variables included the geographic arrangement of food stores or restaurants in communities and consumer conditions such as food price and availability within each outlet. The study designs, methods, limitations and results related to obesity and the food environment were reviewed, and implications for future research were synthesized. The reviewed studies used cross-sectional designs to examine the community food environment defined as the number per capita, proximity or density of food outlets. Most studies indirectly identified food outlets through large databases. The studies varied substantially in sample populations, outcome variables, units of measurement and data analysis. Two studies did not find any significant association between obesity rates and community food environment variables. Five studies found significant results. Many of the studies were subject to limitations that may have mitigated the validity of the results. Research examining obesity and the community or consumer food environment is at an early stage. The most pertinent gaps include primary data at the individual level, direct measures of the environment, studies examining the consumer environment and study designs involving a time sequence. Future research should directly measure multiple levels of the food environment and key confounders at the individual level.

Multi-level functionality of social media in the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake.

PubMed

Jung, Joo-Young; Moro, Munehito

2014-07-01

This study examines the multi-level functionalities of social media in the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011. Based on a conceptual model of multi-level story flows of social media (Jung and Moro, 2012), the study analyses the multiple functionalities that were ascribed to social media by individuals, organisations, and macro-level social systems (government and the mass media) after the earthquake. Based on survey data, a review of Twitter timelines and secondary sources, the authors derive five functionalities of social media: interpersonal communications with others (micro level); channels for local governments; organisations and local media (meso level); channels for mass media (macro level); information sharing and gathering (cross level); and direct channels between micro-/meso- and macro-level agents. The study sheds light on the future potential of social media in disaster situations and suggests how to design an effective communication network to prepare for emergency situations. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

The role of science self-efficacy, science career efficacy, science career interest, and intentions to enroll in nonrequired science courses in the future selection of science-related careers for high school students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, Sherri Patrice

1998-12-01

Underrepresentation of non-Asian minority groups and women in science and math related professions has been an area of concern for many years. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of career selection variables for African-American and European-American students on future aspirations of pursuing a science-related career. Other examined variables included gender, academic track and socioeconomic status. A survey was completed by 368 high school students in rural settings in the Southeastern portion of the United States. Gender, race, tracking, and socioeconomic differences in career selection variables and future aspirations of pursuing a science-related career were explored using a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 MANOVA. Multiple regression was used to examine the predictiveness of career selection variables relative to future career aspirations of pursuing a science-related career. Results indicated that African-Americans reported higher total science career interest, and higher science career efficacy. European-American students reported higher levels of science self-efficacy relative to making a B or better in science courses and solving science-related problems. Also, European-Americans reported higher levels of interest in science-related tasks, a subscale on the science career interest variable. When the effect of gender was examined across the total sample, no differences were found. However, when gender was examined by race, European-American females reported higher levels of science career interest than European-American males. Students from high academic tracking groups reported greater efficacy for completing science-related technical skills. Science career interest was predictive of future career selection for this sample.

Factors Associated With Full Implementation of Scope of Practice.

PubMed

Ganz, Freda DeKeyser; Toren, Orly; Fadlon, Yafit

2016-05-01

To describe whether nurses fully implement their scope of practice; nurses' perceptions of future practice implementation; and the association between scope of practice implementation with professional autonomy and self-efficacy. A descriptive correlational study was conducted using a convenience sample of 145 registered nurses with post-basic certification from two Israeli university hospitals, from May 2012 to September 2013. Five questionnaires were distributed: (a) Demographic and Work Characteristics, (b) Implementation of Scope of Practice, (c) Attitudes Towards Future Practice, (d) Practice Behavior Scale, and (e) Practice Self-Efficacy. Descriptive statistics for all demographic and questionnaire data were analyzed. Two regression models were developed, where current and future implementations were the criterion variables and demographic and work characteristics, professional autonomy, and self-efficacy were the predictors. High levels of professional autonomy, self-efficacy, and attitudes towards future practice were found in contrast to low or moderate levels of current implementation of the full extent of scope of practice. Primary reasons associated with low implementation were lack of relevance to practice and permission to perform the practice. Significant associations were found between professional autonomy, self-efficacy, and attitudes towards future practice, but not with current implementation. Nurses wanted to practice to the full extent of their scope of practice and felt able to do so but were hindered by administrative and not personal barriers. Even though staff nurses with post-basic certification had high levels of professional autonomy and self-efficacy, many were not implementing the full extent of their scope of practice. Similar to findings from around the world, external factors, such as administrative and policy barriers, were found to thwart the full implementation of nurses' full scope of practice. Therefore, practicing nurses should be aware of these barriers and work towards reducing them. © 2016 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Death Anxiety and Education: A Comparison Among Undergraduate and Graduate Students.

PubMed

Nienaber, Kristie; Goedereis, Eric

2015-01-01

The present study investigated the association between level of education and self-reported levels of anxiety regarding death of self and others among undergraduate students (n = 149) and graduate students (n = 92). Participants completed the Multidimensional Fear of Death Scale (MFODS) and the Revised Death Anxiety Scale (RDAS). Although undergraduate and graduate students did not differ on Fear of Being Destroyed, graduate students reported lower levels of death anxiety on all remaining measures. Suggestions for future research and implications are discussed.

Genetic and Environmental Influences on the Associations Between Uric Acid Levels and Metabolic Syndrome Over Time.

PubMed

Song, Yun-Mi; Lee, Kayoung

2018-05-02

The longitudinal associations between serum uric acid (UA) levels and metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components, as well as the shared genetic and environmental correlations between these traits, were evaluated. In a total of 1803 participants (675 men and 1128 women; 695 monozygotic twin individuals, 159 dizygotic twin individuals, and 949 non-twin family members; 44.3 ± 12.8 years old) and 321 monozygotic twin pairs with data on UA levels and MetS components at baseline and follow-up, mixed linear model, conditional logistic regression, and bivariate variance component analysis were conducted. After 3.7 ± 1.4 years, the incident and persistent prevalence of MetS were 5.3% and 11.6%, respectively. UA was positively associated with the concurrent and future number of MetS criteria, blood pressure (BP), and triglyceride (TG) levels, whereas an inverse association was observed between UA and future high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels after adjusting for twin and household effects, demographics, health behaviors at baseline, and other confounders according to outcome variables. In the adjusted bivariate analysis, UA had genetic and environmental correlations with the concurrent and future number of MetS criteria, and had genetic correlations with concurrent BP and TG levels and future diastolic BP and HDL-C levels. In the adjusted co-twin control analysis, twins with a higher UA level were more likely to have concurrent MetS [odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.59 (1.00-2.53)], high blood glucose levels [1.84 (1.06-3.17)], future MetS [2.35 (1.19-4.64)], and high TG levels [1.52 (1.03-2.24)] than co-twins with a lower UA level. Genetic and environmental factors affect the concurrent and longitudinal associations between UA and MetS as well as some of its components.

Exercise for falls prevention in older people: assessing the knowledge of exercise science students.

PubMed

Sturnieks, Daina L; Finch, Caroline F; Close, Jacqueline C T; Tiedemann, Anne; Lord, Stephen R; Pascoe, Deborah A

2010-01-01

Participation in appropriate exercise can help reduce the risk of falls and falls injury in older people. Delivery of population-level exercise interventions requires an expert workforce with skills in development and delivery of group exercise programs and prescription of individually targeted exercise. This study assessed the current knowledge of university exercise science students (as future exercise professionals) across different levels of study. A structured survey designed to assess knowledge in relation to falls in older people and exercise prescription for falls prevention was administered during second, third and fourth year lectures in seven Australian universities. Students' knowledge was assessed as the percent of correct responses. Overall, 566 students completed the survey and knowledge levels increased significantly with study year. Mean knowledge levels were significantly <70%, indicating limited knowledge. They were lowest for falls risk factor questions and highest for issue/cost related questions in second and third year students. Fourth year students had best knowledge about falls interventions and this was the only group and topic with a mean score >70%. In conclusion, knowledge about falls and exercise prescription for falls prevention in current students does not meet a desired competency level of 70% and is therefore insufficient to ensure an adequately equipped future workforce in this area. There is a clear need for the development and widespread delivery of an evidence-based "exercise for falls prevention" curriculum module for exercise professionals. Copyright (c) 2009 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic disadvantage as a social determinant of teen childbearing in the U.S.

PubMed

Penman-Aguilar, Ana; Carter, Marion; Snead, M Christine; Kourtis, Athena P

2013-01-01

We reviewed the literature focused on socioeconomic influences on teen childbearing and suggested directions for future research and practice related to this important indicator of teen sexual health. We conducted an electronic search of Medline, ERIC, PsychLit, and Sociological Abstracts databases for articles published from January 1995 to November 2011. Selected articles from peer-reviewed journals included original quantitative analyses addressing socioeconomic influences on first birth among teen women in the U.S. Articles were abstracted for key information, ranked for quality according to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force guidelines, assessed for bias, and synthesized. We selected articles with a range of observational study designs. Risk for bias varied across studies. All 12 studies that considered socioeconomic factors as influences on teen childbearing (vs. moderators or mediators of other effects) reported at least one statistically significant association relating low socioeconomic status, underemployment, low income, low education levels, neighborhood disadvantage, neighborhood physical disorder, or neighborhood-level income inequality to teen birth. Few reports included any associations contradicting this pattern. This review suggests that unfavorable socioeconomic conditions experienced at the community and family levels contribute to the high teen birth rate in the U.S. Future research into social determinants of sexual health should include multiple levels of measurement whenever possible. Root causes of teen childbearing should be evaluated in various populations and contexts. Interventions that address socioeconomic influences at multiple levels could positively affect large numbers of teens and help eliminate disparities in teen childbearing.

Association of triiodothyronine levels with future development of metabolic syndrome in euthyroid middle-aged subjects: a 6-year retrospective longitudinal study.

PubMed

Kim, Hye Jeong; Bae, Ji Cheol; Park, Hyeong Kyu; Byun, Dong Won; Suh, Kyoil; Yoo, Myung Hi; Jae Hwan, Jee; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Min, Yong-Ki; Kim, Sun Wook; Chung, Jae Hoon

2017-04-01

Several cross-sectional studies have reported that thyroid hormone levels are associated with cardiovascular risk markers and metabolic syndrome (MetS) even in euthyroid subjects. However, the prognostic role of serum thyroid hormone levels in the risk of incident MetS has not been elucidated. We aimed to investigate the associations of baseline serum thyroid hormone levels with the development of MetS in healthy subjects. This 6-year, cross-sectional, longitudinal and follow-up study was conducted in 12 037 euthyroid middle-aged subjects without MetS subjected to comprehensive health examinations. Subjects were grouped according to total triiodothyronine (T3) quartiles. The hazard ratio (HR) for the development of MetS according to T3 quartiles was estimated using Cox proportional hazards model. During the 6-year period, 3544 incident cases of MetS (29%) were identified. The proportion of subjects with incident MetS increased across the T3 quartiles ( P for trend <0.001). The HR and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the development of MetS were significantly higher in the highest T3 quartile compared with the lowest T3 quartile even after adjusting for confounding variables including gender, age and smoking (HR: 1.238, 95% CI: 1.128-1.358, P  < 0.001). In euthyroid middle-aged subjects, serum T3 levels are associated with increased risk for future development of MetS. © 2017 European Society of Endocrinology.

Gender Differences in Context: The Impact of Track Position on Study Involvement in Flemish Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Houtte, Mieke

2017-01-01

This study examines whether the influence of track position on study involvement is gendered and whether gender differences in study involvement according to track position are associated with school misconduct and rather poor future perspectives. Three-level analyses (HLM 6) of data gathered in 2004-2005 from 11,872 third- and fifth-grade…

From Discrimination to Internalized Mental Illness Stigma: The Mediating Roles of Anticipated Discrimination and Anticipated Stigma

PubMed Central

Quinn, Diane M.; Williams, Michelle K.; Weisz, Bradley M.

2015-01-01

Objective Internalizing mental illness stigma is related to poorer well-being, but less is known about the factors that predict levels of internalized stigma. This study explored how experiences of discrimination relate to greater anticipation of discrimination and devaluation in the future, and how anticipation of stigma, in turn predicts greater stigma internalization. Method Participants were 105 adults with mental illness who self-reported their experiences of discrimination based on their mental illness, their anticipation of discrimination and social devaluation from others in the future, and their level of internalized stigma. Participants were approached in several locations and completed surveys on laptop computers. Results Correlational analyses indicated that more experiences of discrimination due to one’s mental illness were related to increased anticipated discrimination in the future, increased anticipated social stigma from others, and greater internalized stigma. Multiple serial mediator analyses showed that the effect of experiences of discrimination on internalized stigma was fully mediated by increased anticipated discrimination and anticipated stigma. Conclusion and Implications for Practice Experiences of discrimination over the lifetime may influence not only how much future discrimination people with mental illness are concerned with but also how much they internalize negative feelings about the self. Mental health professionals may need to address concerns with future discrimination and devaluation in order to decrease internalized stigma. PMID:25844910

Effects of climate change on hydrology and hydraulics of Qu River Basin, East China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Zhu, Q.; Zhao, Z.; Pan, S.; Xu, Y. P.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change on regional hydrological extreme events have attracted much attention in recent years. This paper aims to provide a general overview of changes on future runoffs and water levels in the Qu River Basin, upper reaches of Qiantang River, East China by combining future climate scenarios, hydrological model and 1D hydraulic model. The outputs of four GCMs BCC, BNU, CanESM and CSIRO under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2021-2050 are chosen to represent future climate change projections. The LARS-WG statistical downscaling method is used to downscale the coarse GCM outputs and generate 50 years of synthetic precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to drive the GR4J hydrological model and the 1D hydraulic model for the baseline period 1971-2000 and the future period 2021-2050. Finally the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) method is applied to analyze the change of extreme events in the study area. The results show that design runoffs and water levels all indicate an increasing trend in the future period for Changshangang River, Jiangshangang River and Qu River at most cases, especially for small return periods(≤20), and for Qu River the increase becomes larger, which suggests that the risk of flooding will probably become greater and appropriate adaptation measures need to be taken.

NIH disease funding levels and burden of disease.

PubMed

Gillum, Leslie A; Gouveia, Christopher; Dorsey, E Ray; Pletcher, Mark; Mathers, Colin D; McCulloch, Charles E; Johnston, S Claiborne

2011-02-24

An analysis of NIH funding in 1996 found that the strongest predictor of funding, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), explained only 39% of the variance in funding. In 1998, Congress requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) evaluate priority-setting criteria for NIH funding; the IOM recommended greater consideration of disease burden. We examined whether the association between current burden and funding has changed since that time. We analyzed public data on 2006 NIH funding for 29 common conditions. Measures of US disease burden in 2004 were obtained from the World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease study and national databases. We assessed the relationship between disease burden and NIH funding dollars in univariate and multivariable log-linear models that evaluated all measures of disease burden. Sensitivity analyses examined associations with future US burden, current and future measures of world disease burden, and a newly standardized NIH accounting method. In univariate and multivariable analyses, disease-specific NIH funding levels increased with burden of disease measured in DALYs (p = 0.001), which accounted for 33% of funding level variation. No other factor predicted funding in multivariable models. Conditions receiving the most funding greater than expected based on disease burden were AIDS ($2474 M), diabetes mellitus ($390 M), and perinatal conditions ($297 M). Depression ($719 M), injuries ($691 M), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ($613 M) were the most underfunded. Results were similar using estimates of future US burden, current and future world disease burden, and alternate NIH accounting methods. Current levels of NIH disease-specific research funding correlate modestly with US disease burden, and correlation has not improved in the last decade.

Ocean acidification effects on calcification in Caribbean scleractinian coral exposed to elevated pCO2: a potential for acclimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hankins, C.

2016-02-01

Ocean acidification (OA) is projected to increase the acidity of coral reef habitats 2-3 times that of present day pCO2 levels. Many studies have shown the adverse effects on scleractinian calcification when exposed to elevated pCO2 levels, however, no such effects were seen in this study whereby corals were exposed for three months to elevated pCO2 levels. In this study, all corals were kept in culture for one year prior to being used in experimental trials. Data from culture systems shows coral experience a range of pCO2 from 300-600 µatm over the course of a day. This range is attributed to respiration and photosynthesis which also naturally occurs in a reef habitat. Montastrea cavernosa, Orbicella faveolata, and Pseudodiploria clivosa were exposed to their ambient culture conditions (control) or to elevated pCO2 levels of 1000 µatm (IPCC A1F1 scenario). By combining photographic analysis of live tissue area or exposed skeleton with the buoyant weight technique, an area density of each coral fragment was obtained to infer rates of calcification or erosion of skeleton. After three months of experimental exposure, preliminary results suggest that there is no significant difference in calcification or erosion in any of the species tested. Acclimation in the elevated pCO2 culture environment may have conditioned the coral to better withstand high pCO2 levels. Long acclimation periods of coral to near term future pCO2 levels may more accurately predict calcification responses in corals of the future.

Predicting who will major in a science discipline: Expectancy-value theory as part of an ecological model for studying academic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullins, Ellen S.; Hernandez, Delia; Fuller, Carol; Shiro Tashiro, Jay

Research on factors that shape recruitment and retention in undergraduate science majors currently is highly fragmented and in need of an integrative research framework. Such a framework should incorporate analyses of the various levels of organization that characterize academic communities (i.e., the broad institutional level, the departmental level, and the student level), and should also provide ways to study the interactions occurring within and between these structural levels. We propose that academic communities are analogous to ecosystems, and that the research paradigms of modern community ecology can provide the necessary framework, as well as new and innovative approaches to a very complex area. This article also presents the results of a pilot study that demonstrates the promise of this approach at the student level. We administered a questionnaire based on expectancy-value theory to undergraduates enrolled in introductory biology courses. Itself an integrative approach, expectancy-value theory views achievement-related behavior as a joint function of the person's expectancy of success in the behavior and the subjective value placed on such success. Our results indicated: (a) significant gender differences in the underlying factor structures of expectations and values related to the discipline of biology, (b) expectancy-value factors significantly distinguished biology majors from nonmajors, and (c) expectancy-value factors significantly predicted students' intent to enroll in future biology courses. We explore the expectancy-value framework as an operationally integrative framework in our ecological model for studying academic communities, especially in the context of assessing the underrepresentation of women and minorities in the sciences. Future research directions as well as practical implications are also discussed.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

Translating Uncertain Sea Level Projections Into Infrastructure Impacts Using a Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A.; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2017-12-01

Climate change may affect ocean-driven coastal flooding regimes by both raising the mean sea level (msl) and altering ocean-atmosphere interactions. For reliable projections of coastal flood risk, information provided by different climate models must be considered in addition to associated uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a framework to project future coastal water levels and quantify the resulting flooding hazard to infrastructure. We use Bayesian Model Averaging to generate a weighted ensemble of storm surge predictions from eight climate models for two coastal counties in California. The resulting ensembles combined with msl projections, and predicted astronomical tides are then used to quantify changes in the likelihood of road flooding under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the near-future (1998-2063) and mid-future (2018-2083). The results show that road flooding rates will be significantly higher in the near-future and mid-future compared to the recent past (1950-2015) if adaptation measures are not implemented.

Does the nature of schools matter? An exploration of selected school ecology factors on adolescent perceptions of school connectedness.

PubMed

Waters, Stacey; Cross, Donna; Shaw, Therese

2010-09-01

Connectedness to school is a significant predictor of adolescent health and academic outcomes. While individual predictors of connectedness have been well-described, little is known about school-level factors which may influence connectedness. A school's ecology, or its structural, functional, and built aspects, coupled with interpersonal interactions, may also help to enhance adolescent connectedness. This study aims to identify school ecological characteristics which predict enhanced connectedness in secondary school. Data from 5,159 Grade 8 students (12-13 years) from 39 randomly selected schools were tracked until the end of Grade 9 (13-14 years). Students' self-reported school, teacher, and family connectedness, mental health and peer relationships were measured at two time points. Accounting for school-level clustering, student- and school-level ecological characteristics were modelled on self-reported school connectedness in Grades 8 and 9. Students' higher school connectedness in Grades 8 and 9 was influenced by greater levels of family connectedness, fewer classroom and peer problems, less difficult secondary school transition, fewer emotional problems, and greater prosocial skills. Seven school-level ecological variables were significantly associated with school connectedness after controlling for student-level predictors. At the school-level, priority for pastoral care and students' aggregated writing skills scores significantly predicted concurrent and future enhanced connectedness. Interventions to improve students' school connectedness should address individual student characteristics and school functional features such as pastoral care strategies and helping students to achieve greater academic outcomes. Future studies should focus on the cumulative longitudinal influence of school ecological and student-level predictors of school connectedness.

Conceptual study of superconducting urban area power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noe, Mathias; Bach, Robert; Prusseit, Werner; Willén, Dag; Gold-acker, Wilfried; Poelchau, Juri; Linke, Christian

2010-06-01

Efficient transmission, distribution and usage of electricity are fundamental requirements for providing citizens, societies and economies with essential energy resources. It will be a major future challenge to integrate more sustainable generation resources, to meet growing electricity demand and to renew electricity networks. Research and development on superconducting equipment and components have an important role to play in addressing these challenges. Up to now, most studies on superconducting applications in power systems have been concentrated on the application of specific devices like for example cables and current limiters. In contrast to this, the main focus of our study is to show the consequence of a large scale integration of superconducting power equipment in distribution level urban power systems. Specific objectives are to summarize the state-of-the-art of superconducting power equipment including cooling systems and to compare the superconducting power system with respect to energy and economic efficiency with conventional solutions. Several scenarios were considered starting from the replacement of an existing distribution level sub-grid up to a full superconducting urban area distribution level power system. One major result is that a full superconducting urban area distribution level power system could be cost competitive with existing solutions in the future. In addition to that, superconducting power systems offer higher energy efficiency as well as a number of technical advantages like lower voltage drops and improved stability.

The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Passeri, Davina L.; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Alizad, Karim; Wang, Dingbao

2015-01-01

Coastal responses to sea level rise (SLR) include inundation of wetlands, increased shoreline erosion, and increased flooding during storm events. Hydrodynamic parameters such as tidal ranges, tidal prisms, tidal asymmetries, increased flooding depths and inundation extents during storm events respond nonadditively to SLR. Coastal morphology continually adapts toward equilibrium as sea levels rise, inducing changes in the landscape. Marshes may struggle to keep pace with SLR and rely on sediment accumulation and the availability of suitable uplands for migration. Whether hydrodynamic, morphologic, or ecologic, the impacts of SLR are interrelated. To plan for changes under future sea levels, coastal managers need information and data regarding the potential effects of SLR to make informed decisions for managing human and natural communities. This review examines previous studies that have accounted for the dynamic, nonlinear responses of hydrodynamics, coastal morphology, and marsh ecology to SLR by implementing more complex approaches rather than the simplistic “bathtub” approach. These studies provide an improved understanding of the dynamic effects of SLR on coastal environments and contribute to an overall paradigm shift in how coastal scientists and engineers approach modeling the effects of SLR, transitioning away from implementing the “bathtub” approach. However, it is recommended that future studies implement a synergetic approach that integrates the dynamic interactions between physical and ecological environments to better predict the impacts of SLR on coastal systems.

Toward a Theoretical Model of Text Complexity for the Early Grades: Learning from the Past, Anticipating the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mesmer, Heidi Anne; Cunningham, James W.; Hiebert, Elfrieda H.

2012-01-01

In this conceptual essay, we offer rationales and evidence for critical components of a working model of text complexity for the early grades. In the first three sections of the article, we examine word-level, syntax-level, and discourse-level features of text, posing questions for future research. In the fourth section, we address elements of…

TWO-WEEK INHALATION EXPOSURE OF RATS TO LIBBY AMPHIBOLE (LA) AND AMOSITE ASBESTOS

EPA Science Inventory

The relative potency of LA compared to UICC amosite was assessed in a subacute inhalation study designed to set exposure levels for a future subchronic study. Male F344 rats (n=7/group) were exposed nose-only to air (control), 3 concentrations of LA, or I concentration of amosite...

Positional Identities in Educational Transitions: Connecting Contemporary and Future Trajectories among Multiethnic Girls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roth, Solveig; Erstad, Ola

2016-01-01

The aim of this article is to study how young people view themselves as learners within educational trajectories, as an alternative approach to today's emphasis on performance and standardisation. We study different learner positionings in transitions from one level of schooling to another, using the analytic concepts of "positional…

Female Athletes and Performance-Enhancer Usage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fralinger, Barbara K.; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve; Olson, Valerie; Simpkins, Susan

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a knowledge base on factors associated with performance-enhancer usage among female athletes at the high school level in order to identify markers for a future prevention-education program. The study used a pretest-only, between-subjects Likert Scale survey to rank the importance of internal and external…

Online Software Applications for Learning: Observations from an Elementary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tay, Lee Yong; Lim, Cher Ping; Nair, Shanthi Suraj; Lim, Siew Khiaw

2014-01-01

This exploratory case study research describes the integration of Information Communication Technology (ICT) into the teaching and learning of English, mathematics and science in an elementary school in Singapore. The school in this case study research is one of the first primary-level future schools that was set up under the…

The Scholarship of Teaching and Learning (SoTL) at Renaissance College (University of New Brunswick): A Case Study of SoTL at the Faculty Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mengel, Thomas

2016-01-01

This chapter presents the case study of Renaissance College at the University of New Brunswick, discussing the faculty's achievements, challenges, and outlook for the future in the context of the scholarship of teaching and learning in Canada.

The School Health Policies and Programs Study (SHPPS): Context, Methods, General Findings, and Future Efforts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolbe, Lloyd J.; And Others

1995-01-01

The School Health Policies and Programs Study assessed health education, physical education, health services, food service, and policies prohibiting violence, tobacco use, and alcohol and other drug use at state, district, school, and classroom levels. State questionnaires found several common themes across the components of school health…

Literacy Coaching: The Role of Reflective Thought in Teacher Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

May, Patricia Jane

2010-01-01

Qualitative studies of classroom teachers involved in literacy coaching are crucial to provide direction for future literacy coaching practice and research. Using a grounded theory design, this study examined the experience of four elementary level classroom teachers and one coach as they engaged in a year-long literacy coaching program. Teachers…

Writing Instruction in Jordan: Past, Present, and Future Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Jarrah, Rasheed S.; Al-Ahmad, Sayyah

2013-01-01

This study investigated English-language writing instruction in Jordan at three levels, namely primary and secondary state schools, a private school, and a state university. To address this issue, the researchers used tape-recorded interviews and class observations as primary tools of collecting data for the study. It turned out that a host of…

Indicators of regenerative capacity for eastern hardwood forests

Treesearch

William H. McWilliams; Todd W. Bowersox; Patrick H. Brose; Daniel A. Devlin; James C. Finley; Steve Horsley; Kurt W. Gottschalk; Tonya W. Lister; Larry H. McCormick; Gary W. Miller; Kim C. Steiner; Susan L. Stout; James A. Westfall; Robert L. White

2004-01-01

Hardwood forests of the eastern United States are characterized by a complex mix of species associations that make it difficult to construct useful indicators of long-term sustainability, in terms of future forest composition and stocking levels. The Pennsylvania Regeneration Study examines regeneration adequacy in the state. The study uses the Forest Service's...

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

Serum Amino Acid Profiles in Childhood Predict Triglyceride Level in Adulthood: A 7-Year Longitudinal Study in Girls.

PubMed

Wiklund, Petri; Zhang, Xiaobo; Tan, Xiao; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Alen, Markku; Cheng, Sulin

2016-05-01

Branched-chain and aromatic amino acids are associated with high risk of developing dyslipidemia and type II diabetes in adults. This study aimed to examine whether serum amino acid profiles associate with triglyceride concentrations during pubertal growth and predict hypertriglyceridemia in early adulthood. This was a 7.5-year longitudinal study. The study was conducted at the Health Science Laboratory, University of Jyväskylä. A total of 396 nondiabetic Finnish girls aged 11.2 ± 0.8 years at the baseline participated in the study. Body composition was assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry; serum concentrations of glucose, insulin, and triglyceride by enzymatic photometric methods; and amino acids by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Serum leucine and isoleucine correlated significantly with future triglyceride, independent of baseline triglyceride level (P < .05 for all). In early adulthood (at the age of 18 years), these amino acids were significantly associated with hypertriglyceridemia, whereas fat mass and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance were not. Leucine was the strongest determinant discriminating subjects with hypertriglyceridemia from those with normal triglyceride level (area under the curve, 0.822; 95% confidence interval, 0.740-0.903; P = .000001). Serum leucine and isoleucine were associated with future serum triglyceride levels in girls during pubertal growth and predicted hypertriglyceridemia in early adulthood. Therefore, these amino acid indices may serve as biomarkers to identify individuals at high risk for developing hypertriglyceridemia and cardiovascular disease later in life. Further studies are needed to elucidate the role these amino acids play in the lipid metabolism.

Simulation of the ground-water flow system at Naval Submarine Base Bangor and vicinity, Kitsap County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heeswijk, Marijke van; Smith, Daniel T.

2002-01-01

An evaluation of the interaction between ground-water flow on Naval Submarine Base Bangor and the regional-flow system shows that for selected alternatives of future ground-water pumping on and near the base, the risk is low that significant concentrations of on-base ground-water contamination will reach off-base public-supply wells and hypothetical wells southwest of the base. The risk is low even if worst-case conditions are considered ? no containment and remediation of on-base contamination. The evaluation also shows that future saltwater encroachment of aquifers below sea level may be possible, but this determination has considerable uncertainty associated with it. The potential effects on the ground-water flow system resulting from four hypothetical ground-water pumping alternatives were considered, including no change in 1995 pumping rates, doubling the rates, and 2020 rates estimated from population projections with two different pumping distributions. All but a continuation of 1995 pumping rates demonstrate the possibility of future saltwater encroachment in the Sea-level aquifer on Naval Submarine Base Bangor. The amount of time it would take for encroachment to occur is unknown. For all pumping alternatives, future saltwater encroachment in the Sea-level aquifer also may be possible along Puget Sound east and southeast of the base. Future saltwater encroachment in the Deep aquifer also may be possible throughout large parts of the study area. Projections of saltwater encroachment are least certain outside the boundaries of Naval Submarine Base Bangor. The potential effects of the ground-water pumping alternatives were evaluated by simulating the ground-water flow system with a three-dimensional uniform-density ground-water flow model. The model was calibrated by trial-and-error by minimizing differences between simulated and measured or estimated variables. These included water levels from prior to January 17, 1977 (termed 'predevelopment'), water-level drawdowns since predevelopment until April 15, 1995, ground-water discharge to streams in water year 1995, and residence times of ground water in different parts of the flow system that were estimated in a separate but related study. Large amounts of ground water were pumped from 1977 through 1980 from the Sea-level aquifer on Naval Submarine Base Bangor to enable the construction of an off-shore drydock. Records of the flow-system responses to the applied stresses were used to help calibrate the model. Errors in the calibrated model were significant. The poor agreement between simulated and measured values could be improved by making many local changes to hydraulic parameters but these changes were not supported by other data. Model errors may have resulted in errors in the simulated effects of ground-water pumping alternatives.

Adapting nurse competence to future patient needs using Checkland's Soft Systems Methodology.

PubMed

Železnik, Danica; Kokol, Peter; Blažun Vošner, Helena

2017-01-01

New emerging technologies, health globalization, demographic change, new healthcare paradigms, advances in healthcare delivery and social networking will change the needs of patients in the future and consequently will require that new knowledge, competence and skill sets be acquired by nurses. Checkland's Soft Systems Methodology, focusing on the enriched CATWOE and PQR elements of the root definitions, combined with our own developed "Too much - Too little constraint" approach was used to devise impending knowledge, competence and skill sets. The analysis revealed ten needs among patients of the future, 63 constraints and 18 knowledge, competence and skill sets for the future nurse. The completed study showed that SSM is an appropriate tool for high level structuring of a "messy" real-world problem situation to meet prospective nursing challenges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Indirect Effect of Violence Exposure on Future Orientation Through Perceived Stress and the Buffering Effect of Family Participation.

PubMed

Schmidt, Carissa J; Zimmerman, Marc A; Stoddard, Sarah A

2018-06-07

Exposure to violence (ETV) during adolescence has been associated with negative effects in later life, and may negatively affect an individual's future orientation. Future orientation has important health implications and warrants being studied. Yet, few researchers have examined how ETV affects an individual's future orientation as a young adult. The purpose of this study was to examine the indirect effect of ETV during adolescence on future orientation as a young adult through perceived stress. We also tested the moderating effect of family participation on the relationship between perceived stress and future orientation. Longitudinal data from a sample of 316 African American participants (42.10% male and 57.90% female, Mage = 14.76 at Wave 1) from low socioeconomic backgrounds recruited from a Midwestern school district were used in the analysis. Multigroup structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test our hypotheses. Our findings indicated that greater ETV during adolescence is associated with higher levels of perceived stress and, in turn, a more negative outlook on one's future as a young adult. This indirect effect occurred for individuals with lower family participation, but was not evident for individuals with greater family participation. These findings provide important implications for youth development interventions. © Society for Community Research and Action 2018.

Global cost analysis on adaptation to sea level rise based on RCP/SSP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumano, N.; Tamura, M.; Yotsukuri, M.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yokoki, H.

2017-12-01

Low-lying areas are the most vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change in the future. In order to adapt to SLR, it is necessary to decide whether to retreat from vulnerable areas or to install dykes to protect them from inundation. Therefore, cost- analysis of adaptation using coastal dykes is one of the most essential issues in the context of climate change and its countermeasures. However, few studies have globally evaluated the future costs of adaptation in coastal areas. This study tries to globally analyze the cost of adaptation in coastal areas. First, global distributions of projected inundation impacts induced by SLR including astronomical high tide were assessed. Economic damage was estimated on the basis of the econometric relationship between past hydrological disasters, affected population, and per capita GDP using CRED's EM-DAT database. Second, the cost of adaptation was also determined using the cost database and future scenarios. The authors have built a cost database for installed coastal dykes worldwide and applied it to estimating the future cost of adaptation. The unit costs of dyke construction will increase with socio-economic scenario (SSP) such as per capita GDP. Length of vulnerable coastline is calculated by identifying inundation areas using ETOPO1. Future cost was obtained by multiplying the length of vulnerable coastline and the unit cost of dyke construction. Third, the effectiveness of dyke construction was estimated by comparing cases with and without adaptation.As a result, it was found that incremental adaptation cost is lower than economic damage in the cases of SSP1 and SSP3 under RCP scenario, while the cost of adaptation depends on the durability of the coastal dykes.

pCO2 effects on species composition and growth of an estuarine phytoplankton community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grear, Jason S.; Rynearson, Tatiana A.; Montalbano, Amanda L.; Govenar, Breea; Menden-Deuer, Susanne

2017-05-01

The effects of ongoing changes in ocean carbonate chemistry on plankton ecology have important implications for food webs and biogeochemical cycling. However, conflicting results have emerged regarding species-specific responses to pCO2 enrichment and thus community responses have been difficult to predict. To assess community level effects (e.g., production) of altered carbonate chemistry, studies are needed that capitalize on the benefits of controlled experiments but also retain features of intact ecosystems that may exacerbate or ameliorate the effects observed in single-species or single cohort experiments. We performed incubations of natural plankton communities from Narragansett Bay, RI, USA in winter at ambient bay temperatures (5-13 °C), light and nutrient concentrations. Three levels of controlled and constant CO2 concentrations were imposed, simulating past, present and future conditions at mean pCO2 levels of 224, 361, and 724 μatm respectively. Samples for carbonate analysis, chlorophyll a, plankton size-abundance, and plankton species composition were collected daily and phytoplankton growth rates in three different size fractions (<5, 5-20, and >20 μm) were measured at the end of the 7-day incubation period. Community composition changed during the incubation period with major increases in relative diatom abundance, which were similar across pCO2 treatments. At the end of the experiment, 24-hr growth responses to pCO2 levels varied as a function of cell size. The smallest size fraction (<5 μm) grew faster at the elevated pCO2 level. In contrast, the 5-20 μm size fraction grew fastest in the Present treatment and there were no significant differences in growth rate among treatments in the >20 μm size fraction. Cell size distribution shifted toward smaller cells in both the Past and Future treatments but remained unchanged in the Present treatment. Similarity in Past and Future treatments for cell size distribution and growth rate (5-20 μm size fraction) illustrate non-monotonic effects of altered pCO2 on ecological indicators and may be related to opposing physiological effects of high CO2 and low pH both within and among species. Interaction of these effects with other factors (e.g., nutrients, light, temperature, grazing, initial species composition) may explain variability among published studies. The absence of clear treatment-specific effects at the community level suggests that extrapolation of species-specific responses or experiments with only present day and future pCO2 treatments levels could produce misleading predictions of ocean acidification impacts on plankton production.

Translation of lifestyle modification programs focused on physical activity and dietary habits delivered in community settings.

PubMed

Stoutenberg, Mark; Stanzilis, Katie; Falcon, Ashley

2015-06-01

Lifestyle modification programs (LMPs) can provide individuals with behavioral skills to sustain long-term changes to their physical activity (PA) levels and dietary habits. Yet, there is much work to be done in the translation of these programs to community settings. This review identified LMPs that focused on changing both PA and dietary behaviors and examined common features and barriers faced in their translation to community settings. A search of multiple online databases was conducted to identify LMPs that included participants over the age of 18 who enrolled in LMPs, offered in community settings, and had the goal of improving both PA and dietary behaviors. Data were extracted on participant demographics, study design characteristics, and study outcome variables including changes in PA, dietary habits, body weight, and clinical outcomes. We identified 27 studies that met inclusion criteria. Despite high levels of retention and adherence to the interventions, varying levels of success were observed in increasing PA levels, improving dietary habits, reducing body weight, and improving clinic outcomes. LMPs addressing issues of PA and dietary habits can be successfully implemented in a community setting. However, inconsistent reporting of key components in the translation of these studies (participant recruitment, utilization of behavioral strategies) may limit their replication and advancement of future programs. Future efforts should better address issues such as identifying barriers to participation and program implementation, utilization of community resources, and evaluating changes across multiple health behaviors.

Moral distress: levels, coping and preferred interventions in critical care and transitional care nurses.

PubMed

Wilson, Melissa A; Goettemoeller, Diana M; Bevan, Nancy A; McCord, Jennifer M

2013-05-01

To examine the level and frequency of moral distress in staff nurses working in two types of units in an acute care hospital and to gather information for future interventions addressing moral distress. In 2008, the American Association of Critical Care Nurses published a Position Statement on Moral Distress. Nurses working in units where critically ill patients are admitted may encounter distressing situations. Moral distress is the painful feelings and/or psychological disequilibrium that may occur when taking care of patients. An exploratory, descriptive design study was used to identify the type and frequency of moral distress experienced by nurses. The setting was an acute care hospital in which the subjects were sampled from two groups of nurses based on their unit assignment. A descriptive, questionnaire study was used. Nurses completed the 38-item moral distress scale, a coping questionnaire, and indicated their preferred methods for institutional support in managing distressing situations. A convenience sample of staff nurses was approached to complete the moral distress questionnaire. Overall, the nurses reported low levels of moral distress. Situations creating the highest levels of moral distress were those related to futile care. A significance between group differences was found in the physician practice dimension. Specific resources were identified to help guide future interventions to recognise and manage moral distress. Nurses reported lower levels and frequency of moral distress in these units but their open-ended responses appeared to indicate moral distress. Nurses identified specific resources that they would find helpful to alleviate moral distress. There are numerous studies that identify the situations and the impact of moral distress, but not many studies explore treatments and interventions for moral distress. This study attempted to identify nurse preferences for lessening the impact of moral distress. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Modeling and Analysis of Sea-level Rise Impacts on Salinity in the Lower St. Johns River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, P.

2015-12-01

There is deliberate attention being paid to studying sea-level rise impacts on the lower St. Johns River, a drowned coastal plain-type estuary with low topographic drive, located in northeastern Florida. One area of attention is salinity in the river, which influences the entire food web, including sea and marsh grasses, juvenile crustaceans and fishes, wading birds and migratory waterfowl, marine mammals and other predator animals. It is expected that elevated ocean levels will increase the salinity of the estuarine waters, leading to deleterious effects on dependent species of the river biology. The objective of the modeling and analysis was: 1) to establish baseline conditions of salinity for the lower St. Johns River; and 2) to examine future conditions of salinity, as impacted by sea-level rise. Establishing baseline conditions entailed validation of the model for present-day salinity in the lower St. Johns River via comparison to available data. Examining future conditions entailed application of the model for sea-level rise scenarios, with comparison to the baseline conditions, for evaluation of sea-level rise impacts on salinity. While the central focus was on the physics of sea-level rise impacts on salinity, some level of salinity-biological assessment was conducted to identify sea-level rise/salinity thresholds, as related to negatively impacting different species of the river biology.

Emerging Risks Due to New Injecting Patterns in Hungary During Austerity Times.

PubMed

Tarján, Anna; Dudás, Mária; Gyarmathy, V Anna; Rusvai, Erzsébet; Tresó, Bálint; Csohán, Ágnes

2015-01-01

As a consequence of the massive restructuring of drug availability, heroin injection in Hungary was largely replaced by the injecting of new psychoactive substances (NPS) starting in 2010. In the following years in our sero-prevalence studies we documented higher levels of injecting paraphernalia sharing, daily injection-times, syringe reuse, and HCV prevalence among stimulant injectors, especially among NPS injectors. Despite the increasing demand, in 2012 the number of syringes distributed dropped by 35% due to austerity measures. Effects of drug market changes and the economic recession may have future epidemiological consequences. Study limitations are noted and future needed research is suggested.

Projecting future sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

2017-04-01

In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air temperature plays a critical role for glacier mass budgets by determining the precipitation phase rather than by determining ablation. The approach suggested here relies on this stable connection and is therefore appropriate for detecting differences between both analysed emission scenarios. However, the model is simple and neglects or simplifies other relevant energy fluxes and important processes as well as further possible changes. In addition, the method does not consider future changes of further climate variables such as precipitation. Uncertainties of the approach are thus related to the simplification of numerous processes and fluxes. Nevertheless, the approach presented here may be a relatively robust alternative to other simple estimations of future glacier extents.

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, H.; Haeberli, W.; Linsbauer, A.; Huggel, C.; Paul, F.

2010-02-01

In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

Future extreme water levels and floodplains in Gironde Estuary considering climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laborie, V.; Hissel, F.; Sergent, P.

2012-04-01

Within THESEUS European project, an overflowing model of Gironde Estuary has been used to evaluate future surge levels at Le Verdon and future water levels at 6 specific sites of the estuary : le Verdon, Richard, Laména, Pauillac, Le Marquis and Bordeaux. It was then used to study the evolution of floodplains' location and areas towards 2100 in the entire Estuary. In this study, no breaching and no modification in the elevation of the dike was considered. The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A simplified mathematical model of surge levels has been adjusted at Le Verdon with 10 surge storms and by using wind and pressure fields given by CLM/SGA. This adjustment was led so that the statistical analysis of the global signal at Le Verdon gives the same quantiles as the same analysis driven on maregraphic observations for the period [1960 ; 2000]. The assumption used for sea level rise was the pessimistic one of the French national institute for climate change: 60 cm in 2100. The model was then used to study the evolution of extreme water levels towards 2100. The analysis of surge levels at Le Verdon shows a decrease in quantiles which is coherent with the analysis of climatologic fields. The analysis of water levels shows that the increase in mean water levels quantiles represents only a part of sea level rise in Gironde Estuary. Moreover this effect seems to decrease from the maritime limit of the model towards upstream. Concerning floodplains, those corresponding to return periods from 2 to 100 years for present conditions and 3 slices [2010; 2039], [2040; 2069] and [2070; 2099] have been mapped for 3 areas in Gironde Estuary : around Le Verdon, at the confluence between Garonne and Dordogne, and near Bordeaux. Concerning the evolution of floodplains in Gironde Estuary, taking into account IPCC scenario A1B, under the same assumptions, it appears that the impact of the climate change on the quantiles of water levels in floodplains depends on the sea level rise over the period considered ([2010; 2039], [2040; 2069], [2070; 2099]) and that areas which are not flooded today for weak return periods become submerged towards 2100. The neighborhood of Le Verdon undergoes a negative impact only in the medium and long term. For the period [2010; 2039], a small reduction of floodplains can be observed in quantiles of water levels for all return periods. Under those assumptions, in the area of Bordeaux, significant effects would be felt along the road RN230 towards 2100. The effects of the discharges and dike breaching will have to be studied in order to precise these results.

Extravehicular activities limitations study. Volume 1: Physiological limitations to extravehicular activity in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Furr, Paul A.; Monson, Conrad B.; Santoro, Robert L.; Sears, William J.; Peterson, Donald H.; Smith, Malcolm

1988-01-01

This report contains the results of a comprehensive literature search on physiological aspects of EVA. Specifically, the topics covered are: (1) Oxygen levels; (2) Optimum EVA work; (3) Food and Water; (4) Carbon dioxide levels; (5) Repetitive decompressions; (6) Thermal, and (7) Urine collection. The literature was assessed on each of these topics, followed by statements on conclusions and recommended future research needs.

A Study on the Relationship between Self Directed Learning and Achievement in Information Technology of Students at Secondary Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaleel, Sajna; O. M., Anuroofa

2017-01-01

Education at any level has normally been based on some image of the future; that was not impossible in a world that was changing slowly. Today, educators are preparing learners for a world we cannot even predict, and self-directed learning has become an essential foundation for 21st century learners. In recent years teachers are giving importance…

Home Economics--A Look--A Job--A Future. A Course of Study at a Pre-Vocational Level for 7th and/or 8th Grade.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oklahoma City Public School System, OK. Dept. of Home Economics.

Prevocational materials for use at the seventh and/or eighth grade levels are presented in this curriculum guide. Materials cover six areas, each consisting of several instructional units planned for more than one lesson or class period. Each unit includes behavioral objectives, suggested activities for teacher and students, information sheets,…

Relationship between urinary bisphenol A levels and prediabetes among subjects free of diabetes.

PubMed

Sabanayagam, Charumathi; Teppala, Srinivas; Shankar, Anoop

2013-08-01

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a high volume production chemical used in the manufacture of polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins. Recent experimental studies have suggested that BPA affects glucose metabolism through diverse mechanisms including insulin resistance, pancreatic β-cell dysfunction, adipogenesis, inflammation and oxidative stress. Prediabetes is a stage earlier in the hyperglycemia continuum associated with increased future risk of developing diabetes. Therefore, we examined the association between BPA exposure and prediabetes among subjects free of diabetes. We examined the association between urinary BPA levels and prediabetes in 3,516 subjects from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey 2003-2008. Urinary BPA levels were examined in tertiles. Prediabetes was defined as fasting glucose concentration 100-125 mg/dL or 2-h glucose concentration of 140-199 mg/dL or an A1C value of 5.7-6.4 %. Overall, we observed a positive association between higher levels of urinary BPA and prediabetes, independent of potential confounders including body mass index, alcohol intake, blood pressure and serum cholesterol levels. Compared to tertile 1 (referent), the multivariate-adjusted odds ratio (95 % confidence interval) of prediabetes associated with tertile 3 of BPA was 1.34 (1.03-1.73), p-trend = 0.02. In subgroup analysis, this association was stronger among women and obese subjects. Higher urinary BPA levels are found to be associated with prediabetes independent of traditional diabetes risk factors. Future prospective studies are needed to confirm or disprove this finding.

Future orientation and suicide ideation and attempts in depressed adults ages 50 and over.

PubMed

Hirsch, Jameson K; Duberstein, Paul R; Conner, Kenneth R; Heisel, Marnin J; Beckman, Anthony; Franus, Nathan; Conwell, Yeates

2006-09-01

The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that future orientation is associated with lower levels of suicide ideation and lower likelihood of suicide attempt in a sample of patients in treatment for major depression. Two hundred two participants (116 female, 57%) ages 50-88 years were recruited from inpatient and outpatient settings. All were diagnosed with major depression using a structured diagnostic interview. Suicide ideation was assessed with the Scale for Suicide Ideation (both current and worst point ratings), and a measure of future orientation was created to assess future expectancies. The authors predicted that greater future orientation would be associated with less current and worst point suicide ideation, and would distinguish current and lifetime suicide attempters from nonattempters. Hypotheses were tested using multivariate logistic regression and linear regression analyses that accounted for age, gender, hopelessness, and depression. As hypothesized, higher future orientation scores were associated with lower current suicidal ideation, less intense suicidal ideation at its worst point, and lower probability of a history of attempted suicide after accounting for covariates. Future orientation was not associated with current attempt status. Future orientation holds promise as a cognitive variable associated with decreased suicide risk; a better understanding of its putative protective role is needed. Treatments designed to enhance future orientation might decrease suicide risk.

Use of the Serenity Prayer among adults with type 2 diabetes: a pilot study.

PubMed

Sacco, Lisa M; Griffin, Mary T Quinn; McNulty, Rita; Fitzpatrick, Joyce J

2011-01-01

The incidence of type 2 diabetes is rising rapidly with significant associated morbidity and mortality. Treatment efforts are focused on control of serum blood glucose levels. It was anticipated that the use of the Serenity Prayer would assist those who need to gain control over their physiological symptoms. A pilot study of the effect of daily recitation of the Serenity Prayer for 6 weeks on serum blood glucoses in patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes was implemented. Thirty-six participants were enrolled in the study; there was a very high attrition rate over the course of the study. Serum blood glucose levels over the duration of the study were analyzed. At 4 to 6 weeks, time 2, there were 2 participants who had lower serum blood glucose levels, 2 had increased serum blood glucose levels, and 4 had no change. Challenges in completing this research and specific recommendations for future research are addressed.

A preliminary evaluation of nearhore extreme sea level and wave models for fringing reef environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoeke, R. K.; Reyns, J.; O'Grady, J.; Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.; Roelvink, J. A.

2016-02-01

Oceanic islands are widely perceived as vulnerable to sea level rise and are characterized by steep nearshore topography and fringing reefs. In such settings, near shore dynamics and (non-tidal) water level variability tends to be dominated by wind-wave processes. These processes are highly sensitive to reef morphology and roughness and to regional wave climate. Thus sea level extremes tend to be highly localized and their likelihood can be expected to change in the future (beyond simple extrapolation of sea level rise scenarios): e.g. sea level rise may increase the effective mean depth of reef crests and flats and ocean acidification and/or increased temperatures may lead to changes in reef structure. The problem is sufficiently complex that analytic or numerical approaches are necessary to estimate current hazards and explore potential future changes. In this study, we evaluate the capacity of several analytic/empirical approaches and phase-averaged and phase-resolved numerical models at sites in the insular tropical Pacific. We consider their ability to predict time-averaged wave setup and instantaneous water level exceedance probability (or dynamic wave run-up) as well as computational cost; where possible, we compare the model results with in situ observations from a number of previous studies. Preliminary results indicate analytic approaches are by far the most computationally efficient, but tend to perform poorly when alongshore straight and parallel morphology cannot be assumed. Phase-averaged models tend to perform well with respect to wave setup in such situations, but are unable to predict processes related to individual waves or wave groups, such as infragravity motions or wave run-up. Phase-resolved models tend to perform best, but come at high computational cost, an important consideration when exploring possible future scenarios. A new approach of combining an unstructured computational grid with a quasi-phase averaged approach (i.e. only phase resolving motions below a frequency cutoff) shows promise as a good compromise between computational efficiency and resolving processes such as wave runup and overtopping in more complex bathymetric situations.

Estimation of Future Return Levels for Heavy Rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula: Comparison of Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parey, S.

2014-12-01

F. J. Acero1, S. Parey2, T.T.H. Hoang2, D. Dacunha-Castelle31Dpto. Física, Universidad de Extremadura, Avda. de Elvas s/n, 06006, Badajoz 2EDF/R&D, 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France 3Laboratoire de Mathématiques, Université Paris 11, Orsay, France Trends can already be detected in daily rainfall amount in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), and this will have an impact on the extreme levels. In this study, we compare different ways to estimate future return levels for heavy rainfall, based on the statistical extreme value theory. Both Peaks over Threshold (POT) and block maxima with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution will be used and their results compared when linear trends are assumed in the parameters: threshold and scale parameter for POT and location and scale parameter for GEV. But rainfall over the IP is a special variable in that a large number of the values are 0. Thus, the impact of taking this into account is discussed too. Another approach is then tested, based on the evolutions of the mean and variance obtained from the time series of rainy days only, and of the number of rainy days. A statistical test, similar to that designed for temperature in Parey et al. 2013, is used to assess if the trends in extremes can be considered as mostly due to these evolutions when considering only rainy days. The results show that it is mainly the case: the extremes of the residuals, after removing the trends in mean and standard deviation, cannot be differentiated from those of a stationary process. Thus, the future return levels can be estimated from the stationary return level of these residuals and an estimation of the future mean and standard deviation. Moreover, an estimation of the future number of rainy days is used to retrieve the return levels for all days. All of these comparisons are made for an ensemble of high quality rainfall time series observed in the Iberian Peninsula over the period 1961-2010, from which we want to estimate a 20-year return level expected in 2020. The evolutions and the impact of the different approaches will be discussed for 3 seasons: fall, spring and winter. Parey S., Hoang T.T.H., Dacunha-Castelle D.: The importance of mean and variance in predicting changes in temperature extremes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, 1-12, 2013.

Back to the Future: Merit or Equity in AP Social Studies?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Robert

2013-01-01

In an effort to address severe budget deficits at both the state and local levels, schools and educational programs are being asked to trim budgets. The Advanced Placement Program is one program that will certainly be scrutinized. This article presents a general overview of AP social studies, a brief history of the AP social studies program, and…

Historical Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of the Ponto-Caspian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koriche, Sifan A.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Coe, Michael T.; Nandini, Sri; Prange, Matthias; Cloke, Hannah; Lunt, Dan

2017-04-01

The Ponto-Caspian basin is one of the largest basins globally, composed of a closed basin (Caspian Sea) and open basins connecting to the global ocean (Black and Azov Sea). Over the historical time period (1850-present) Caspian Sea levels have varied between -25 and -29mbsl (Arpe et al., 2012), resulting in considerable changes to the area of the lake (currently 371,000 km2). Given projections of future climate change and the importance of the Caspian Sea for fisheries, agriculture, and industry, it is vital to understand how sea levels may vary in the future. Hydrological models can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes for future forecasts. However, it is critical to first evaluate such models using observational data for the present and recent past, and to understand the key hydrological processes driving past changes in sea level. In this study, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model (THMB) (Coe, 2000, 2002) is applied and evaluated to investigate the hydrological processes of the Ponto-Caspian basin for the historical period 1900 to 2000. The model has been forced using observational reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-20) and historical climate model data outputs (from CESM and HadCM3 models) to investigate the variability in the Caspian Sea level and the major river discharges. We examine the differences produced by driving the hydrological model with reanalysis data or climate models. We evaluate the model performance compared to observational discharge measurements and Caspian Sea level data. Secondly, we investigated the sensitivity of historical Caspian Sea level variations to different aspects of climate changes to examine the most important processes involved over this time period.

Usefulness of Circulating Decoy Receptor 3 in Predicting Coronary Artery Disease Severity and Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Chang, Ting-Yung; Hsu, Chien-Yi; Huang, Po-Hsun; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Huang, Chin-Chou; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Lin, Shing-Jong

2015-10-01

Decoy receptor 3 (DcR3), a member of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, is an antiapoptotic soluble receptor considered to play an important role in immune modulation and has pro-inflammatory functions. This study was designed to test whether circulating DcR3 levels are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) severity and predict future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with CAD. Circulating DcR3 levels and the Syntax score (SXscore) were determined in patients with multivessel CAD. The primary end point was the MACE within 12 months. In total, 152 consecutive patients with angiographically confirmed multivessel CAD who had received percutaneous coronary intervention were enrolled and were divided into 3 groups according to CAD lesion severity. Group 1 was defined as low SXscore (≤13), group 2 as intermediate SXscore (>13 and ≤22), and group 3 as high SXscore (>22). DcR3 levels were significantly higher in the high SXscore group than the other 2 groups (13,602 ± 7,256 vs 8,025 ± 7,789 vs 4,637 ± 4,403 pg/ml, p <0.001). By multivariate analysis, circulating DcR3 levels were identified as an independent predictor for high SXscore (adjusted odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.21; p <0.001). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that increased circulating DcR3 levels are associated with enhanced 1-year MACE in patients with multivessel CAD (log-rank p <0.001). In conclusion, increased circulating DcR3 levels are associated with CAD severity and predict future MACE in patients with multivessel CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patient involvement in diabetes care: experiences in nine diabetes care groups

PubMed Central

de Bruin, Simone R.; Struijs, Jeroen N.; Rijken, Mieke; Nijpels, Giel; Baan, Caroline A.

2015-01-01

Introduction Despite the expected beneficial effects on quality of care, patient involvement in diabetes care groups, which deliver a bundled paid integrated care programme for diabetes type 2, seems to be limited. The aim of this study was to gain insight into levels and methods of patient involvement, into facilitators and barriers, and into the future preferences of care groups and patient representatives. Theory and methods Semi-structured interviews were held with 10 representatives of care groups and 11 representatives of patient advocacy groups. An adapted version of Arnstein's ladder of citizen participation was used to define five levels of patient involvement. Results Patient involvement in care groups was mostly limited to informing and consulting patients. Higher levels, i.e., advising, co-producing and decision-making, were less frequently observed. Care groups and patient representatives perceived largely the same barriers and facilitators and had similar preferences regarding future themes and design of patient involvement. Conclusion Constructive collaboration between diabetes care groups and patient representatives to enhance patient involvement in the future seems viable. Several issues such as the lack of evidence for effectiveness of patient involvement, differences in viewpoints on the role and responsibilities of care groups and perceived barriers need to be addressed. PMID:27118961

Association between perceived present working conditions and demands versus attitude to early retirement among construction workers.

PubMed

Jebens, Einar; Medbø, Jon I; Knutsen, Oddvar; Mamen, Asgeir; Veiersted, Kaj Bo

2014-01-01

Early retirement is an increasing problem in the construction industry. There is limited information about causes leading employees to leave working life early. We have compared construction workers present situation with their perception of future demands at work to avoid early retirement. All 87 employees in a medium-sized Norwegian construction company participated in the study. All were men and answered questionnaires on health and pain, work ability, mechanical exposure, psychosocial conditions, and demands regarding future working conditions. Most workers showed good work ability, irrespective of age. Many reported high levels of mechanical exposure at work. The level of musculoskeletal pain was higher in the middle-aged (30-50 year old) age groups and seniors aged over 50 years than among the youngest workers less than 30 years of age. All workers reported that good health was important for continued working. Most workers stated that future work must not be too physically demanding. Many workers reported relatively low job satisfaction; consequently an interesting job was rated as important for continuing work. Good social conditions were a high priority. According to the examined construction workers, good health and reduced levels of mechanical exposure at work are essential to avoid early retirement.

The effects of past and anticipated future downsizing on survivor well-being: an equity perspective.

PubMed

Kalimo, Raija; Taris, Toon W; Schaufeli, Wilmar B

2003-04-01

Worker well-being was examined as a function of past downsizing and expectations concerning future downsizing. Data from 1,297 Finnish workers were analyzed using analysis of variance and structural modeling analysis. Having experienced downsizing in the past or anticipating downsizing in the future was associated with elevated levels of inequity, which in turn were associated with elevated levels of psychological strain, cynicism, and absence. There were also direct effects of past/anticipated future downsizing on strain, cynicism, and absence, meaning that inequity only partly mediated the relationship between downsizing and well-being. Moreover, well-being varied as a function of type of downsizing.

Impact Assessment of Global Temperature Perturbations on Urban and Regional Ozone Levels in South Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Jhumoor; John, Kuruvilla; Farooqui, Zuber

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts significant temperature increases over the century which constitutes the pulse of climate variability in a region. A modeling study was performed to identify the potential impact of temperature perturbations on tropospheric ozone concentrations in South Texas. A future case modeling scenario which incorporates appropriate emission reduction strategies without accounting for climatic inconsistencies was used in this study. The photochemical modeling was undertaken for a high ozone episode of 13-20 September 1999, and a future modeling scenario was projected for ozone episode days in 2007 utilizing the meteorological conditions prevalent in the base year. The temperatures were increased uniformly throughout the simulation domain and through the vertical layers by 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C, respectively in the future year modeling case. These temperature perturbations represented the outcome of extreme climate change within the study region. Significantly large changes in peak ozone concentrations were predicted by the photochemical model. For the 6°C temperature perturbation, the greatest amplification in the maximum 8-h ozone concentrations within urban areas of the modeling domain was approximately 12 ppb. In addition, transboundary flux from major industrialized urban areas played a major role in supplementing the high ozone concentrations during the perturbed temperature scenarios. The Unites States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is currently proposing stricter 8-h ozone standards. The effect of temperature perturbations on ozone exceedances based on current and potential stringent future National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) was also studied. Temperatures had an appreciable spatial impact on the 8-h ozone exceedances with a considerable increase in spatial area exceeding the NAAQS for the 8-h ozone levels within the study region for each successive augmentation in temperature. The number of exceedances of the 8-h ozone standard increased significantly with each degree rise of temperature with the problem becoming even more acute in light of stricter future proposed standards of ozone.

Time Frame and Justice Motive: Future Perspective Moderates the Adaptive Function of General Belief in a Just World

PubMed Central

Wu, Michael Shengtao; Sutton, Robbie M.; Yan, Xiaodan; Zhou, Chan; Chen, Yiwen; Zhu, Zhuohong; Han, Buxin

2013-01-01

Background The human ability to envision the future, that is, to take a future perspective (FP), plays a key role in the justice motive and its function in transcending disadvantages and misfortunes. The present research investigated whether individual (Study 1) and situational (Study 2) differences in FP moderated the association of general belief in a just world (GBJW) with psychological resilience. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated FP, GBJW, and resilience in sample of adolescents (n = 223) and disaster survivors (n = 218) in China. In Study 1, adolescents revealed stronger GBJW than PBJW, and GBJW uniquely predicted resilience in the daily lives of those with high FP (but not those with low FP). In Study 2, natural priming of FP (vs. no FP) facilitated the association of GBJW with resilience after disaster. Conclusions/Significance Supporting predictions, participants endorsed GBJW more strongly than PBJW. Further, GBJW interacted with FP in both studies, such that there was an association between GBJW and resilience at high but not low levels of FP. The results corroborate recent findings suggesting that GBJW may be more psychologically adaptive than PBJW among some populations. They also confirm that focusing on the future is an important aspect of the adaptive function of just-world beliefs. PMID:24312235

Intimate Partner Violence in Interracial and Monoracial Couples

PubMed Central

Martin, Brittny A.; Cui, Ming; Ueno, Koji; Fincham, Frank D.

2012-01-01

This study investigated intimate partner violence in interracial and monoracial relationships. Using a nationally representative sample, regression analyses indicated that interracial couples demonstrated a higher level of mutual IPV than monoracial white couples but a level similar to monoracial black couples. There were significant gender differences in IPV, with women reporting lower levels of victimization than men. Regarding relationship status, cohabiting couples demonstrated the highest levels of IPV and dating couples reported the lowest levels. Regarding interactions among couple racial composition, relationship status, and respondents’ gender, an interaction between racial composition and relationship status was found. Implications for practitioners and directions for future research are discussed. PMID:23554541

Seasonal presence of cetaceans and ambient noise levels in polar waters of the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Klinck, Holger; Nieukirk, Sharon L; Mellinger, David K; Klinck, Karolin; Matsumoto, Haruyoshi; Dziak, Robert P

2012-09-01

In 2009 two calibrated acoustic recorders were deployed in polar waters of the North Atlantic to study the seasonal occurrence of blue, fin, and sperm whales and to assess current ambient noise levels. Sounds from these cetaceans were recorded at both locations in most months of the year. During the summer months, seismic airguns associated with oil and gas exploration were audible for weeks at a time and dominated low frequency noise levels. Noise levels might further increase in the future as the receding sea ice enables extended human use of the area.

Evaluation of the effects of sea-level change and coastal canal management on saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer of south Florida, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; Sifuentes, D. F.; White, J.

2015-12-01

Sea-level increases are expected to have an effect on the position of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida as a result of the low topographic relief of the area and high rates of groundwater withdrawal from the aquifer. To study the effects that future sea-level increases will have on saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer in Broward County, Florida, a three-dimensional, variable-density, groundwater-flow and transport model was developed. The model was calibrated to observed groundwater heads and chloride concentrations for a 62-year period that includes historic increases in sea level, development of a surface-water management system to control flooding, and increases in groundwater withdrawals as the area transitioned from agricultural to urban land uses. Sensitivity analyses indicate that downward leakage of saltwater from coastal canals and creeks was the primary source of saltwater to the Biscayne aquifer during the last 62-years in areas where the surface-water system is not actively managed and is tidally influenced. In areas removed from the coastal canals and creeks or under active surface-water management, historic groundwater withdrawals were the primary cause of saltwater intrusion into the aquifer. Simulation of future conditions suggests that possible increases in sea level will result in additional saltwater intrusion. Model scenarios suggest that additional saltwater intrusion will be greatest in areas where coastal canals and creeks were historically the primary source of seawater. Future saltwater intrusion in those areas, however, may be reduced by relocation of salinity-control structures.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.G.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.; Bauer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Tidewater metropolitan area transportation survey study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ficht, J. C.

1975-01-01

Results of a survey conducted in southeastern Virginia to identify public opinion regarding requirements for future public transportation are analyzed. The effects of age and income level on attitudes concerning city living and no importance of various characteristics described for urban transportation systems are identified.

The B Ed Physics Degree at London University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, R. O.; And Others

1973-01-01

Discusses the development of a syllabus and a study guide necessary for adequate preparation of high school physics teachers. Indicates that the unified nature of physical science will predominate over separate physics or chemistry courses on the school level in the future. (CC)

What Works Clearinghouse Quick Review: "Are Tenure Track Professors Better Teachers?"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

What Works Clearinghouse, 2013

2013-01-01

tenured/tenure track professor versus a nontenured/tenure track professor for first-term freshman-level courses (e.g., introductory economics) was associated with whether students enrolled and performed well in future classes in the same subject. The study uses a…

Multistressor impacts of warming and acidification of the ocean on marine invertebrates' life histories.

PubMed

Byrne, Maria; Przeslawski, Rachel

2013-10-01

Benthic marine invertebrates live in a multistressor world where stressor levels are, and will continue to be, exacerbated by global warming and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. These changes are causing the oceans to warm, decrease in pH, become hypercapnic, and to become less saturated in carbonate minerals. These stressors have strong impacts on biological processes, but little is known about their combined effects on the development of marine invertebrates. Increasing temperature has a stimulatory effect on development, whereas hypercapnia can depress developmental processes. The pH, pCO2, and CaCO3 of seawater change simultaneously with temperature, challenging our ability to predict future outcomes for marine biota. The need to consider both warming and acidification is reflected in the recent increase in cross-factorial studies of the effects of these stressors on development of marine invertebrates. The outcomes and trends in these studies are synthesized here. Based on this compilation, significant additive or antagonistic effects of warming and acidification of the ocean are common (16 of 20 species studied), and synergistic negative effects also are reported. Fertilization can be robust to near-future warming and acidification, depending on the male-female mating pair. Although larvae and juveniles of some species tolerate near-future levels of warming and acidification (+2°C/pH 7.8), projected far-future conditions (ca. ≥4°C/ ≤pH 7.6) are widely deleterious, with a reduction in the size and survival of larvae. It appears that larvae that calcify are sensitive both to warming and acidification, whereas those that do not calcify are more sensitive to warming. Different sensitivities of life-history stages and species have implications for persistence and community function in a changing ocean. Some species are more resilient than others and may be potential "winners" in the climate-change stakes. As the ocean will change more gradually over coming decades than in "future shock" perturbation investigations, it is likely that some species, particularly those with short generation times, may be able to tolerate near-future oceanic change through acclimatization and/or adaption.

Results of instrument reliability study for high-level nuclear-waste repositories. [Geotechnical parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogue, F.; Binnall, E.P.

1982-10-01

Reliable instrumentation will be needed to monitor the performance of future high-level waste repository sites. A study has been made to assess instrument reliability at Department of Energy (DOE) waste repository related experiments. Though the study covers a wide variety of instrumentation, this paper concentrates on experiences with geotechnical instrumentation in hostile repository-type environments. Manufacturers have made some changes to improve the reliability of instruments for repositories. This paper reviews the failure modes, rates, and mechanisms, along with manufacturer modifications and recommendations for additional improvements to enhance instrument performance. 4 tables.

2nd Generation RLV Risk Reduction Definition Program: Pratt & Whitney Propulsion Risk Reduction Requirements Program (TA-3 & TA-4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matlock, Steve

2001-01-01

This is the final report and addresses all of the work performed on this program. Specifically, it covers vehicle architecture background, definition of six baseline engine cycles, reliability baseline (space shuttle main engine QRAS), and component level reliability/performance/cost for the six baseline cycles, and selection of 3 cycles for further study. This report further addresses technology improvement selection and component level reliability/performance/cost for the three cycles selected for further study, as well as risk reduction plans, and recommendation for future studies.

An urgent need to reassess the safe levels of copper in the drinking water: lessons from studies on healthy animals harboring no genetic deficits.

PubMed

Pal, Amit; Jayamani, Jayagandan; Prasad, Rajendra

2014-09-01

Recent seminal studies have established neurodegeneration, cognitive waning and/or β-amyloid deposition due to chronic copper intoxication via drinking water in healthy animals; henceforth, fuelling the debate all again over the safe levels of copper in the drinking water. This review encompasses the contemporary imperative animal studies in which the effect of chronic copper toxicity (especially via drinking water) was evaluated on the central nervous system and memory of uncompromised animals along with discussing the future perspectives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Peer influence on students' estimates of performance: social comparison in clinical rotations.

PubMed

Raat, A N Janet; Kuks, Jan B M; van Hell, E Ally; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

2013-02-01

During clinical rotations, students move from one clinical situation to another. Questions exist about students' strategies for coping with these transitions. These strategies may include a process of social comparison because in this context it offers the student an opportunity to estimate his or her abilities to master a novel rotation. These estimates are relevant for learning and performance because they are related to self-efficacy. We investigated whether student estimates of their own future performance are influenced by the performance level and gender of the peer with whom the student compares him- or herself. We designed an experimental study in which participating students (n = 321) were divided into groups assigned to 12 different conditions. Each condition entailed a written comparison situation in which a peer student had completed the rotation the participant was required to undertake next. Differences between conditions were determined by the performance level (worse, similar or better) and gender of the comparison peer. The overall grade achieved by the comparison peer remained the same in all conditions. We asked participants to estimate their own future performance in that novel rotation. Differences between their estimates were analysed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Students' estimates of their future performance were highest when the comparison peer was presented as performing less well and lowest when the comparison peer was presented as performing better (p < 0.001). Estimates of male and female students in same-gender comparison conditions did not differ. In two of three opposite-gender conditions, male students' estimates were higher than those of females (p < 0.001 and p < 0.05, respectively). Social comparison influences students' estimates of their future performance in a novel rotation. The effect depends on the performance level and gender of the comparison peer. This indicates that comparisons against particular peers may strengthen or diminish a student's self-efficacy, which, in turn, may ease or hamper the student's learning during clinical rotations. The study is limited by its experimental design. Future research should focus on students' comparison behaviour in real transitions. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2013.

Are Londoners Prepared for an Emergency? A Longitudinal Study Following the London Bombings

PubMed Central

Rubin, James; Amlôt, Richard; Simpson, John; Wessely, Simon

2008-01-01

The UK government sees increasing individual preparedness as a priority, but the level of preparedness of people in the UK for a large-scale emergency is not known. The London bombings of July 7, 2005, affected many Londoners and may have altered their sense of vulnerability to a future terrorist attack. We used a longitudinal study design to assess individual preparedness within the same sample of Londoners at 2 points in time: immediately after the bombings (T1) and 7 to 8 months later (T2). A demographically representative sample of 1,010 Londoners participated in a phone interview at T1. Subsequently, at T2, 574 of the same people participated in a follow-up phone interview. At T1 51% of Londoners had made 4 or more relevant emergency plans; 48% had gathered 4 or more relevant supplies in case of emergency. There was evidence of increased preparedness at T2, by which time 90% had made 4 or more emergency plans. Ethnicity, low social status, and having felt a sense of threat during the bombings predicted increased preparedness between T1 and T2. Women in general, and women of low social status in particular, perceived themselves to be unprepared in the event of a future terrorist attack. In summary, Londoners show moderate levels of emergency preparedness, which increased following the London bombings. Although we cannot know whether this association is causal, the prospective nature of the study increases the likelihood that it is. However, preparedness is still patchy, and there are important demographic associations with levels of preparedness and perception of vulnerability. These findings have implications for future development of individual and community emergency preparedness policy. PMID:19117430

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

2006-04-15

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Dimensionality of coping and its relation to depression.

PubMed

Rohde, P; Lewinsohn, P M; Tilson, M; Seeley, J R

1990-03-01

The dimensionality of coping, as measured by 65 items from 3 commonly used instruments, and the relation of coping and stress to concurrent and future depression were studied in a community sample of 742 older (greater than or equal to 50 years old) adults. Measures of coping, stress, and depression were obtained at 2 time points over a 2-year period. Depression was assessed by symptom checklist and by diagnostic interview. Three coping factors--Cognitive Self-Control, Ineffective Escapism, and Solace Seeking--that had adequate psychometric properties and accounted for 25% of the total item variance were identified. Ineffective Escapism was associated with current depression and had a direct and interactive effect on future depression, exacerbating the negative impact of stress rather than acting as a buffer. Although Cognitive Self-Control was unrelated to either concurrent or future depression, Solace Seeking significantly buffered the effect of stress in predicting a future diagnosis of depression. Stress and initial depression level predicted both measures of future depression. Gender (being female) predicted the future diagnosis of depression but not the increase of depressive symptoms.

Oil prices and long-run risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ready, Robert Clayton

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

Sensitivity of future U.S. water shortages to socioeconomic and climate drivers: A case study in Georgia using an integrated human-earth system modeling framework

DOE PAGES

Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2016-02-06

Here, one of the most important interactions between humans and climate is in the demand and supply of water. Humans withdraw, use, and consume water and return waste water to the environment for a variety of socioeconomic purposes, including domestic, commercial, and industrial use, production of energy resources and cooling thermal-electric power plants, and growing food, fiber, and chemical feed stocks for human consumption. Uncertainties in the future human demand for water interact with future impacts of climatic change on water supplies to impinge on water management decisions at the international, national, regional, and local level, but until recently toolsmore » were not available to assess the uncertainties surrounding these decisions. This paper demonstrates the use of a multi-model framework in a structured sensitivity analysis to project and quantify the sensitivity of future deficits in surface water in the context of climate and socioeconomic change for all U.S. states and sub-basins. The framework treats all sources of water demand and supply consistently from the world to local level. The paper illustrates the capabilities of the framework with sample results for a river sub-basin in the U.S. state of Georgia.« less

Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance.

PubMed

Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Soussana, Jean-François; Klumpp, Katja; Sultan, Benjamin

2017-12-01

Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071-2100 is predicted to be 1-5.5 °C higher than that for 1971-2000. Climate change and elevated CO 2 concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change. Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO 2 . The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C. This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers' ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.

A study of listening habits in adolescents: Correlating stated loudness preferences with actual listening levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, Laura; Warren, Jean; Cheenne, Dominique

2004-05-01

Evidence suggests that children are damaging their hearing in substantial numbers [Niskar et al., J. Am. Med. Assoc. (1998)]. Conventional thinking would suggest that cultural norms and attitudes contribute to a desire in children to model what they have seen in the media, thus implying that they would be listening to music at levels that are considered harmful. Our study focused on a gender-balanced group of 316 elementary-age students and aimed at assessing a correlation between an attitudinal survey related to loud music and the children's own listening levels. The study was broader in scope and in sample size than previous work [Fucci, 138th ASA Meeting, 11/99]. Findings were both surprising and encouraging, citing that a majority of children who expressed favoritism towards loud music listened to the presented samples at lower levels than expected. The study also proposes a set of listening level distribution curves that may prove useful for future studies with older participants.

Regulation of water resources for sustaining global future socioeconomic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; SHI, H.; Sivakumar, B.

2016-12-01

With population projections indicating continued growth during this century, socio-economic problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if proper planning, development, and management strategies are not adopted. In the present study, firstly, we explore the vital role of dams in promoting economic growth through analyzing the relationship between dams and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at both global and national scales. Secondly, we analyze the current situation of global water scarcity based on the data representing water resources availability, dam development, and the level of economic development. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, this study addresses the question of dam development in the future and predicts the locations of future dams around the world.

Mental health issues from rising sea level in a remote coastal region of the Solomon Islands: current and future.

PubMed

Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Gender and Medical Leadership: Student Perceptions and Implications for Developing Future Leaders in Primary and Secondary Care--a Pilot Study.

PubMed

Crolla, Elizabeth; O'Sullivan, Helen; Bogg, Jan

2011-10-01

To explore perceptions of leadership in undergraduate medical students. A quantitative pilot study; anonymous online survey. All undergraduates were invited to participate from one UK medical school; 469 students participated. The survey used Likert scales and open and closed questions. Lack of self-confidence and perceptions of women leaders were issues for undergraduates. A significant number of male undergraduates rated women less able to perform 10 of 12 attributes of leadership. Furthermore, male undergraduates showed greater ambition towards future leadership, with 42.2% males compared to 21.7% females strongly agreeing that they saw themselves in a position of leadership in the future. Networking and tradition were also seen as barriers to females gaining the highest office in the student medical society. The importance of embedding leadership in the curriculum was highlighted by both genders. CONCLUSIONS Barriers to progression still need to be investigated and removed especially because women are expected to comprise the majority of the medical workforce by 2017. There needs to be greater emphasis on mentoring and role models at the undergraduate level and beyond and more awareness of leadership in curricula at all levels. These changes should ultimately improve confidence and change the perception of women in the medical workforce.

Modeling Addictive Consumption as an Infectious Disease*

PubMed Central

Alamar, Benjamin; Glantz, Stanton A.

2011-01-01

The dominant model of addictive consumption in economics is the theory of rational addiction. The addict in this model chooses how much they are going to consume based upon their level of addiction (past consumption), the current benefits and all future costs. Several empirical studies of cigarette sales and price data have found a correlation between future prices and consumption and current consumption. These studies have argued that the correlation validates the rational addiction model and invalidates any model in which future consumption is not considered. An alternative to the rational addiction model is one in which addiction spreads through a population as if it were an infectious disease, as supported by the large body of empirical research of addictive behaviors. In this model an individual's probability of becoming addicted to a substance is linked to the behavior of their parents, friends and society. In the infectious disease model current consumption is based only on the level of addiction and current costs. Price and consumption data from a simulation of the infectious disease model showed a qualitative match to the results of the rational addiction model. The infectious disease model can explain all of the theoretical results of the rational addiction model with the addition of explaining initial consumption of the addictive good. PMID:21339848

An Overview of Solar Sail Propulsion within NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Les; Swartzlander, Grover A.; Artusio-Glimpse, Alexandra

2013-01-01

Solar Sail Propulsion (SSP) is a high-priority new technology within The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and several potential future space missions have been identified that will require SSP. Small and mid-sized technology demonstration missions using solar sails have flown or will soon fly in space. Multiple mission concept studies have been performed to determine the system level SSP requirements for their implementation and, subsequently, to drive the content of relevant technology programs. The status of SSP technology and potential future mission implementation within the United States (US) will be described.

Synthesis of discipline-based education research in physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Docktor, Jennifer L.; Mestre, José P.

2014-12-01

This paper presents a comprehensive synthesis of physics education research at the undergraduate level. It is based on work originally commissioned by the National Academies. Six topical areas are covered: (1) conceptual understanding, (2) problem solving, (3) curriculum and instruction, (4) assessment, (5) cognitive psychology, and (6) attitudes and beliefs about teaching and learning. Each topical section includes sample research questions, theoretical frameworks, common research methodologies, a summary of key findings, strengths and limitations of the research, and areas for future study. Supplemental material proposes promising future directions in physics education research.

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Key Health Information Technologies and Related Issues for Iran: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2018-01-01

Planning for the future of Health Information Technology (HIT) requires applying a systematic approach when conducting foresight studies. The aim of this study was to identify key health information technologies and related issues for Iran until 2025. This was a qualitative study and the participants included experts and policy makers in the field of health information technology. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted and data were analyzed by using framework analysis and MAXQDA software. The findings revealed that the development of national health information network, electronic health records, patient health records, a cloud-based service center, interoperability standards, patient monitoring technologies, telehealth, mhealth, clinical decision support systems, health information technology and mhealth infrastructure were found to be the key technologies for the future. These technologies could influence the economic, organizational and individual levels. To achieve them, the economic and organizational obstacles need to be overcome. In this study, a number of key technologies and related issues were identified. This approach can help to focus on the most important technologies in the future and to priorities these technologies for better resource allocation and policy making.

Bioinformatic analyses to select phenotype affecting polymorphisms in HTR2C gene.

PubMed

Piva, Francesco; Giulietti, Matteo; Baldelli, Luisa; Nardi, Bernardo; Bellantuono, Cesario; Armeni, Tatiana; Saccucci, Franca; Principato, Giovanni

2011-08-01

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in serotonin related genes influence mental disorders, responses to pharmacological and psychotherapeutic treatments. In planning association studies, researchers that want to investigate new SNPs have to select some among a large number of candidates. Our aim is to guide researchers in the selection of the most likely phenotype affecting polymorphisms. Here, we studied serotonin receptor 2C (HTR2C) SNPs because, till now, only relatively few of about 2000 are investigated. We used the most updated and assessed bioinformatic tools to predict which variations can give rise to biological effects among 2450 HTR2C SNPs. We suggest 48 SNPs that are worth considering in future association studies in the field of psychiatry, psychology and pharmacogenomics. Moreover, our analyses point out the biological level probably affected, such as transcription, splicing, miRNA regulation and protein structure, thus allowing to suggest future molecular investigations. Although few association studies are available in literature, their results are in agreement with our predictions, showing that our selection methods can help to guide future association studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Content of Future Economists' Professional Mobility in Researches of Foreign Scientists

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chorna, Iryna

2017-01-01

The content of professional mobility of future economists in the writings of foreign scientists have been presented. The components of future economists' professional mobility formation have been considered. It has been established that the possession of a combination of these components enables future specialists to achieve a high level of…

Futures Unlimited: Teaching About Worlds to Come. Bulletin 59.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitch, Robert M.; Svengalis, Cordell, M.

A theoretical framework and suggestions for teaching about the future at the secondary level are presented. Seven chapters comprise the document. Chapter I examines the nature of and approach to futurism and explores ideas of European and American futurists. Chapter II presents a rationale, characteristics of futures education, outlines of courses…

Irreversibly increased nitrogen fixation in Trichodesmium experimentally adapted to elevated carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Hutchins, David A.; Walworth, Nathan G.; Webb, Eric A.; Saito, Mak A.; Moran, Dawn; McIlvin, Matthew R.; Gale, Jasmine; Fu, Fei-Xue

2015-01-01

Nitrogen fixation rates of the globally distributed, biogeochemically important marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium increase under high carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in short-term studies due to physiological plasticity. However, its long-term adaptive responses to ongoing anthropogenic CO2 increases are unknown. Here we show that experimental evolution under extended selection at projected future elevated CO2 levels results in irreversible, large increases in nitrogen fixation and growth rates, even after being moved back to lower present day CO2 levels for hundreds of generations. This represents an unprecedented microbial evolutionary response, as reproductive fitness increases acquired in the selection environment are maintained after returning to the ancestral environment. Constitutive rate increases are accompanied by irreversible shifts in diel nitrogen fixation patterns, and increased activity of a potentially regulatory DNA methyltransferase enzyme. High CO2-selected cell lines also exhibit increased phosphorus-limited growth rates, suggesting a potential advantage for this keystone organism in a more nutrient-limited, acidified future ocean. PMID:26327191

Irreversibly increased nitrogen fixation in Trichodesmium experimentally adapted to elevated carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchins, David A.; Walworth, Nathan G.; Webb, Eric A.; Saito, Mak A.; Moran, Dawn; McIlvin, Matthew R.; Gale, Jasmine; Fu, Fei-Xue

2015-09-01

Nitrogen fixation rates of the globally distributed, biogeochemically important marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium increase under high carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in short-term studies due to physiological plasticity. However, its long-term adaptive responses to ongoing anthropogenic CO2 increases are unknown. Here we show that experimental evolution under extended selection at projected future elevated CO2 levels results in irreversible, large increases in nitrogen fixation and growth rates, even after being moved back to lower present day CO2 levels for hundreds of generations. This represents an unprecedented microbial evolutionary response, as reproductive fitness increases acquired in the selection environment are maintained after returning to the ancestral environment. Constitutive rate increases are accompanied by irreversible shifts in diel nitrogen fixation patterns, and increased activity of a potentially regulatory DNA methyltransferase enzyme. High CO2-selected cell lines also exhibit increased phosphorus-limited growth rates, suggesting a potential advantage for this keystone organism in a more nutrient-limited, acidified future ocean.

Future Missions for Space Weather Specifications and Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onsager, T. G.; Biesecker, D. A.; Anthes, R. A.; Maier, M. W.; Gallagher, F. W., III; St Germain, K.

2017-12-01

The progress of technology and the global integration of our economic and security infrastructures have introduced vulnerabilities to space weather that demand a more comprehensive ability to specify and to predict the dynamics of the space environment. This requires a comprehensive network of real-time space-based and ground-based observations with long-term continuity. In order to determine the most cost effective space architectures for NOAA's weather, space weather, and environmental missions, NOAA conducted the NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture (NSOSA) study. This presentation will summarize the process used to document the future needs and the relative priorities for NOAA's operational space-based observations. This involves specifying the most important observations, defining the performance attributes at different levels of capability, and assigning priorities for achieving the higher capability levels. The highest priority observations recommended by the Space Platform Requirements Working Group (SPRWG) for improvement above a minimal capability level will be described. Finally, numerous possible satellite architectures have been explored to assess the costs and benefits of various architecture configurations.

Stability analysis and stabilization strategies for linear supply chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagatani, Takashi; Helbing, Dirk

2004-04-01

Due to delays in the adaptation of production or delivery rates, supply chains can be dynamically unstable with respect to perturbations in the consumption rate, which is known as “bull-whip effect”. Here, we study several conceivable production strategies to stabilize supply chains, which is expressed by different specifications of the management function controlling the production speed in dependence of the stock levels. In particular, we will investigate, whether the reaction to stock levels of other producers or suppliers has a stabilizing effect. We will also demonstrate that the anticipation of future stock levels can stabilize the supply system, given the forecast horizon τ is long enough. To show this, we derive linear stability conditions and carry out simulations for different control strategies. The results indicate that the linear stability analysis is a helpful tool for the judgement of the stabilization effect, although unexpected deviations can occur in the non-linear regime. There are also signs of phase transitions and chaotic behavior, but this remains to be investigated more thoroughly in the future.

Quality Development in Higher Education to Meet the Future Needs of Arkansas. Report of the Quality Higher Education Study Committee.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arkansas State Dept. of Higher Education, Little Rock.

A report of the Quality Higher Education Study Committee on state-supported institutions in Arkansas is presented, including 43 recommendations. Attention is directed to: economic characteristics in the state (business indicators, population and growth, personal and family income); social characteristics in the state (education levels, illiteracy,…

On-Line, Off-Campus but in the Flow: Learning from Peers in Development Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beckmann, Elizabeth A.; Kilby, Patrick

2008-01-01

Development workers studying at the graduate level benefit from exposure to the great variety of cultures and worldviews. In the Australian National University's Master of Applied Anthropology and Participatory Development (MAAPD) program, peer learning is giving current and future development workers in the field and in the classroom the chance…

Longitudinal motor performance development in early adolescence and its relationship to adult success: An 8-year prospective study of highly talented soccer players

PubMed Central

Kelava, Augustin; Raabe, Johannes; Höner, Oliver

2018-01-01

Several talent identification and development (TID) programs in soccer have implemented diagnostics to measure players’ motor performance. Yet, there is a lack of research investigating the relationship between motor development in adolescence and future, adult performance. This longitudinal study analyzed the three-year development of highly talented young soccer players’ speed abilities and technical skills and examined the relevance of this development to their adult success. The current research sample consisted of N = 1,134 players born between 1993 and 1995 who were selected for the German Soccer Association’s TID program and participated in nationwide motor diagnostics (sprinting, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting) four times between the Under 12 (U12) and Under 15 (U15) age class. Relative age (RA) was assessed for all players, and a total motor score was calculated based on performances in the individual tests. In order to investigate players’ future success, participants were divided into two groups according to their adult performance level (APL) in the 2014/2015 season: Elite (1st-5th German division; N = 145, 12.8%) and non-elite players (lower divisions; N = 989, 87.2%). Using multilevel regression analyses each motor performance was predicted by Time, Time2 (level-1 predictors), APL, and RA (level-2 covariates) with simultaneous consideration for interaction effects between the respective variables. Time and Time2 were significant predictors for each test performance. A predictive value for RA was confirmed for sprinting and the total motor score. A significant relationship between APL and the motor score as well as between APL and agility, dribbling, ball control, and shooting emerged. Interaction effects distinctly failed to reach significance. The study found a non-linear improvement in players’ performance for all considered motor performance factors over a three-year period from early to middle adolescence. While their predictive value for future success was confirmed by a significant relationship between APL and most of the considered factors, there was no significant interaction between APL and Time. These findings indicate that future elite players had already been better at the beginning of the TID program and maintained this high level throughout their promotion from U12 to U15. PMID:29723200

Longitudinal motor performance development in early adolescence and its relationship to adult success: An 8-year prospective study of highly talented soccer players.

PubMed

Leyhr, Daniel; Kelava, Augustin; Raabe, Johannes; Höner, Oliver

2018-01-01

Several talent identification and development (TID) programs in soccer have implemented diagnostics to measure players' motor performance. Yet, there is a lack of research investigating the relationship between motor development in adolescence and future, adult performance. This longitudinal study analyzed the three-year development of highly talented young soccer players' speed abilities and technical skills and examined the relevance of this development to their adult success. The current research sample consisted of N = 1,134 players born between 1993 and 1995 who were selected for the German Soccer Association's TID program and participated in nationwide motor diagnostics (sprinting, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting) four times between the Under 12 (U12) and Under 15 (U15) age class. Relative age (RA) was assessed for all players, and a total motor score was calculated based on performances in the individual tests. In order to investigate players' future success, participants were divided into two groups according to their adult performance level (APL) in the 2014/2015 season: Elite (1st-5th German division; N = 145, 12.8%) and non-elite players (lower divisions; N = 989, 87.2%). Using multilevel regression analyses each motor performance was predicted by Time, Time2 (level-1 predictors), APL, and RA (level-2 covariates) with simultaneous consideration for interaction effects between the respective variables. Time and Time2 were significant predictors for each test performance. A predictive value for RA was confirmed for sprinting and the total motor score. A significant relationship between APL and the motor score as well as between APL and agility, dribbling, ball control, and shooting emerged. Interaction effects distinctly failed to reach significance. The study found a non-linear improvement in players' performance for all considered motor performance factors over a three-year period from early to middle adolescence. While their predictive value for future success was confirmed by a significant relationship between APL and most of the considered factors, there was no significant interaction between APL and Time. These findings indicate that future elite players had already been better at the beginning of the TID program and maintained this high level throughout their promotion from U12 to U15.

Food parenting: a selective review of current measurement and an empirical examination to inform future measurement.

PubMed

Musher-Eizenman, Dara R; Kiefner, Allison

2013-08-01

Interactions between parents and children in regard to food are an important part of the development of food preferences and intake patterns for children. The measurement of this complex and multidimensional construct is very challenging. This article examines the current status of measurement in this domain in a selective review, considers qualitative input from parents and adolescents in an empirical examination of the topic, and makes concrete recommendations for the future. Qualitatively, there were important differences between what the adolescents reported that their parents did to impact their eating habits, what parents of younger children report they currently do, and what researchers typically measure in research on parental feeding practices. On the basis of these empirical findings and our review of the literature, we recommend that food parenting be measured on three levels: Feeding styles (e.g., authoritative), food parenting practices (e.g., restriction), and specific feeding behaviors (e.g., putting food out of the child's reach). Specific recommendations for future study are given for each level of measurement.

Food Parenting: A Selective Review of Current Measurement and an Empirical Examination To Inform Future Measurement

PubMed Central

Kiefner, Allison

2013-01-01

Abstract Background Interactions between parents and children in regard to food are an important part of the development of food preferences and intake patterns for children. The measurement of this complex and multidimensional construct is very challenging. Methods This article examines the current status of measurement in this domain in a selective review, considers qualitative input from parents and adolescents in an empirical examination of the topic, and makes concrete recommendations for the future. Results Qualitatively, there were important differences between what the adolescents reported that their parents did to impact their eating habits, what parents of younger children report they currently do, and what researchers typically measure in research on parental feeding practices. Conclusions On the basis of these empirical findings and our review of the literature, we recommend that food parenting be measured on three levels: Feeding styles (e.g., authoritative), food parenting practices (e.g., restriction), and specific feeding behaviors (e.g., putting food out of the child's reach). Specific recommendations for future study are given for each level of measurement. PMID:23944922

Seeing light at the end of the tunnel: Positive prospective mental imagery and optimism in depression.

PubMed

Ji, Julie L; Holmes, Emily A; Blackwell, Simon E

2017-01-01

Optimism is associated with positive outcomes across many health domains, from cardiovascular disease to depression. However, we know little about cognitive processes underlying optimism in psychopathology. The present study tested whether the ability to vividly imagine positive events in one's future was associated with dispositional optimism in a sample of depressed adults. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted, using baseline (all participants, N=150) and follow-up data (participants in the control condition only, N=63) from a clinical trial (Blackwell et al., 2015). Vividness of positive prospective imagery, assessed on a laboratory-administered task at baseline, was significantly associated with both current optimism levels at baseline and future (seven months later) optimism levels, including when controlling for potential confounds. Even when depressed, those individuals able to envision a brighter future were more optimistic, and regained optimism more quickly over time, than those less able to do so at baseline. Strategies to increase the vividness of positive prospective imagery may aid development of mental health interventions to boost optimism. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Geographic Effects on Intergenerational Income Mobility

PubMed Central

Rothwell, Jonathan; Massey, Douglas S.

2016-01-01

The notion that where one grows up affects future living standards is increasingly well established in social science. Yet research on intergenerational economic mobility often ignores the regional and neighborhood context of childhood, especially local purchasing power. We hypothesize that unexplained variation in intergenerational mobility is partly attributable to regional and neighborhood conditions—most notably access to high quality schools. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and other data, we find that neighborhood income has roughly half the effect on future earnings as parental income and roughly the same effect as shared sibling characteristics. Growing up in an economically segregated metropolitan area also has a large negative effect on future earnings, though somewhat smaller than the neighborhood effect. We estimate that lifetime household income would be $500,000 dollars higher if people born into a bottom quartile neighborhood would have been raised in a top quartile neighborhood. These results are robust to considerations of regional purchasing power and migration between metro areas. Finally, we replicate the results for economic segregation at the metropolitan level using aggregated metropolitan level statistics of intergenerational income elasticities based on millions of IRS records. PMID:27440944

Ocean acidification and fertilization in the antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri: the importance of polyspermy.

PubMed

Sewell, Mary A; Millar, Russell B; Yu, Pauline C; Kapsenberg, Lydia; Hofmann, Gretchen E

2014-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA), the reduction of the seawater pH as a result of increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, is an important climate change stressor in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic. We examined the impact of OA on fertilization success in the Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri using pH treatment conditions reflective of the current and near-future "pH seascape" for this species: current (control: pH 8.052, 384.1 μatm of pCO2), a high CO2 treatment approximating the 0.2-0.3 unit decrease in pH predicted for 2100 (high CO2: pH 7.830, 666.0 μatm of pCO2), and an intermediate medium CO2 (pH 7.967, 473.4 μatm of pCO2). Using a fertilization kinetics approach and mixed-effect models, we observed significant variation in the OA response between individual male/female pairs (N = 7) and a significant population-level increase (70-100%) in tb (time for a complete block to polyspermy) at medium and high CO2, a mechanism that potentially explains the higher levels of abnormal development seen in OA conditions. However, two pairs showed higher fertilization success with CO2 treatment and a nonsignificant effect. Future studies should focus on the mechanisms and levels of interindividual variability in OA response, so that we can consider the potential for selection and adaptation of organisms to a future ocean.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

Dengue prediction by the web: Tweets are a useful tool for estimating and forecasting Dengue at country and city level

PubMed Central

Degener, Carolin Marlen; Vinhal, Livia; Coelho, Giovanini; Meira, Wagner; Codeço, Claudia Torres; Teixeira, Mauro Martins

2017-01-01

Background Infectious diseases are a leading threat to public health. Accurate and timely monitoring of disease risk and progress can reduce their impact. Mentioning a disease in social networks is correlated with physician visits by patients, and can be used to estimate disease activity. Dengue is the fastest growing mosquito-borne viral disease, with an estimated annual incidence of 390 million infections, of which 96 million manifest clinically. Dengue burden is likely to increase in the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. The epidemiological dynamic of Dengue is complex and difficult to predict, partly due to costly and slow surveillance systems. Methodology / Principal findings In this study, we aimed to quantitatively assess the usefulness of data acquired by Twitter for the early detection and monitoring of Dengue epidemics, both at country and city level at a weekly basis. Here, we evaluated and demonstrated the potential of tweets modeling for Dengue estimation and forecast, in comparison with other available web-based data, Google Trends and Wikipedia access logs. Also, we studied the factors that might influence the goodness-of-fit of the model. We built a simple model based on tweets that was able to ‘nowcast’, i.e. estimate disease numbers in the same week, but also ‘forecast’ disease in future weeks. At the country level, tweets are strongly associated with Dengue cases, and can estimate present and future Dengue cases until 8 weeks in advance. At city level, tweets are also useful for estimating Dengue activity. Our model can be applied successfully to small and less developed cities, suggesting a robust construction, even though it may be influenced by the incidence of the disease, the activity of Twitter locally, and social factors, including human development index and internet access. Conclusions Tweets association with Dengue cases is valuable to assist traditional Dengue surveillance at real-time and low-cost. Tweets are able to successfully nowcast, i.e. estimate Dengue in the present week, but also forecast, i.e. predict Dengue at until 8 weeks in the future, both at country and city level with high estimation capacity. PMID:28719659

Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

PubMed

Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

2010-01-01

Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

What community-level strategies are needed to secure women’s property rights in Western Kenya? Laying the groundwork for a future structural HIV prevention intervention

PubMed Central

Dworkin, Shari L.; Lu, Tiffany; Grabe, Shelly; Kwena, Zachary; Mwaura-Muiru, Esther; Bukusi, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Despite the recognized need for structural-level HIV prevention interventions that focus on economic empowerment to reduce women’s HIV risks, few science-based programs have focused on securing women’s land ownership as a primary or secondary HIV risk reduction strategy. The current study focused on a community-led land and property rights model that was implemented in two rural areas of western Kenya where HIV prevalence was high (24–30%) and property rights violations were common. The program was designed to reduce women’s HIV risk at the community level by protecting and enhancing women’s access to and ownership of land. Through in-depth interviews with 50 program leaders and implementers of this program we sought to identify the strategies that were used to prevent, mediate, and resolve property rights violations. Results included four strategies: (1) rights-based education of both women and men individually and at the community level, (2) funeral committees that intervene to prevent property grabbing and disinheritance, (3) paralegal training of traditional leaders and community members and local adjudication of cases of property rights violations, and (4) referring property rights violations to the formal justice system when these are not resolved at the community level. Study participants underscored that local mediation of cases resulted in a higher success rate than women experienced in the formal court system, underscoring the importance of community-level solutions to property rights violations. The current study assists researchers in understanding the steps needed to prevent and resolve women’s property rights violations so as to bolster the literature on potential structural HIV prevention interventions. Future research should rigorously test property rights programs as a structural HIV prevention intervention. PMID:24116828

What community-level strategies are needed to secure women's property rights in Western Kenya? Laying the groundwork for a future structural HIV prevention intervention.

PubMed

Dworkin, Shari L; Lu, Tiffany; Grabe, Shelly; Kwena, Zachary; Mwaura-Muiru, Esther; Bukusi, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Despite the recognized need for structural-level HIV prevention interventions that focus on economic empowerment to reduce women's HIV risks, few science-based programs have focused on securing women's land ownership as a primary or secondary HIV risk reduction strategy. The current study focused on a community-led land and property rights model that was implemented in two rural areas of western Kenya where HIV prevalence was high (24-30%) and property rights violations were common. The program was designed to reduce women's HIV risk at the community level by protecting and enhancing women's access to and ownership of land. Through in-depth interviews with 50 program leaders and implementers of this program we sought to identify the strategies that were used to prevent, mediate, and resolve property rights violations. Results included four strategies: (1) rights-based education of both women and men individually and at the community level, (2) funeral committees that intervene to prevent property grabbing and disinheritance, (3) paralegal training of traditional leaders and community members and local adjudication of cases of property rights violations, and (4) referring property rights violations to the formal justice system when these are not resolved at the community level. Study participants underscored that local mediation of cases resulted in a higher success rate than women experienced in the formal court system, underscoring the importance of community-level solutions to property rights violations. The current study assists researchers in understanding the steps needed to prevent and resolve women's property rights violations so as to bolster the literature on potential structural HIV prevention interventions. Future research should rigorously test property rights programs as a structural HIV prevention intervention.

High-level specification of a proposed information architecture for support of a bioterrorism early-warning system.

PubMed

Berkowitz, Murray R

2013-01-01

Current information systems for use in detecting bioterrorist attacks lack a consistent, overarching information architecture. An overview of the use of biological agents as weapons during a bioterrorist attack is presented. Proposed are the design, development, and implementation of a medical informatics system to mine pertinent databases, retrieve relevant data, invoke appropriate biostatistical and epidemiological software packages, and automatically analyze these data. The top-level information architecture is presented. Systems requirements and functional specifications for this level are presented. Finally, future studies are identified.

Comparative genomic analysis of novel bacteriophages infecting Vibrio parahaemolyticus isolated from western and southern coastal areas of Korea.

PubMed

Yu, Junhyeok; Lim, Jeong-A; Kwak, Su-Jin; Park, Jong-Hyun; Chang, Hyun-Joo

2018-05-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, a foodborne pathogen, has become resistant to antibiotics. Therefore, alternative bio-control agents such bacteriophage are urgently needed for its control. Six novel bacteriophages specific to V. parahaemolyticus (vB_VpaP_KF1~2, vB_VpaS_KF3~6) were characterized at the molecular level in this study. Genomic similarity analysis revealed that these six bacteriophages could be divided into two groups with different genomic features, phylogenetic grouping, and morphologies. Two groups of bacteriophages had their own genes with different mechanisms for infection, assembly, and metabolism. Our results could be used as a future reference to study phage genomics or apply phages in future bio-control studies.

Spatially confined photoinactivation of bacteria: towards novel tools for detailed mechanistic studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, Hanna; James, Jeemol; Farewell, Anne; Ericson, Marica B.

2018-02-01

Antimicrobial resistance is a serious global threat fueling an accelerated field of research aimed at developing novel antimicrobial therapies. A particular challenge is the treatment of microbial biofilms formed upon bacterial growth and often associated with chronic infections. Biofilms comprise bacteria that have adhered to a surface and formed 3D microcolonies, and demonstrate significantly increased antimicrobial resistance compared to the planktonic counterpart. A challenge in developing novel strategies for fighting these chronic infections is a lack of mechanistic understanding of what primarily contributes to enhanced drug resistance. Tools for noninvasive study of live biofilms are necessary to begin to understand these mechanisms on both a single cell and 3D level. Herein, a method by which multiphoton microscopy is implemented to study a biofilm model of Staphylococcus epidermidis to noninvasively visualize and measure penetration of compounds in 3D biofilm structure and two photon excitation was exploited for spatially confined photoinactivation and microscopy optimized for evaluation of microbiological viability at a microscopic level. Future studies are aimed at future development of the proposed techniques for detailed studies of, e.g., quorum sensing and mechanisms contributing to antimicrobial resistance.

Higher Education Students’ Behaviour to Adopt Mobile Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batmetan, J. R.; Palilingan, V. R.

2018-02-01

Mobile phone is an electronic device most often used by Y generation in Indonesia. This ages have become an important part in the growth of higher education in this country. The problem raised in this study is that very few students in higher education are adopting and accessing digital learning content using mobile phones. The objective of this study is to investigate the higher education students’ behaviour in using mobile learning. The research method used is Structural equation models (SEM) method to analyse the factors that influence higher education students’ behaviour in using mobile learning. The results of this study indicate tends of this student 85% to keep internet access in privacy. The majority of respondent is 78% having behaviour to keep adopting mobile learning and still use it in the future. Why? because this study shows that on the level of usability, easy to use, easy to learn, in various devices have a significant effect on the level of adoption of mobile learning. Implication of this study is higher education students’ behaviour of especially Y generation tends to prioritize the usability towards mobile learning and will continue to adopt mobile learning in the future.

Drinking water studies: a review on heavy metal, application of biomarker and health risk assessment (a special focus in Malaysia).

PubMed

Ab Razak, Nurul Hafiza; Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin; Hashim, Zailina

2015-12-01

Malaysia has abundant sources of drinking water from river and groundwater. However, rapid developments have deteriorated quality of drinking water sources in Malaysia. Heavy metal studies in terms of drinking water, applications of health risk assessment and bio-monitoring in Malaysia were reviewed from 2003 to 2013. Studies on heavy metal in drinking water showed the levels are under the permissible limits as suggested by World Health Organization and Malaysian Ministry of Health. Future studies on the applications of health risk assessment are crucial in order to understand the risk of heavy metal exposure through drinking water to Malaysian population. Among the biomarkers that have been reviewed, toenail is the most useful tool to evaluate body burden of heavy metal. Toenails are easy to collect, store, transport and analysed. This review will give a clear guidance for future studies of Malaysian drinking water. In this way, it will help risk managers to minimize the exposure at optimum level as well as the government to formulate policies in safe guarding the population. Copyright © 2015 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crossing levels in systems ergonomics: a framework to support 'mesoergonomic' inquiry.

PubMed

Karsh, Ben-Tzion; Waterson, Patrick; Holden, Richard J

2014-01-01

In this paper we elaborate and articulate the need for what has been termed 'mesoergonomics'. In particular, we argue that the concept has the potential to bridge the gap between, and integrate, established work within the domains of micro- and macroergonomics. Mesoergonomics is defined as an open systems approach to human factors and ergonomics (HFE) theory and research whereby the relationship between variables in at least two different system levels or echelons is studied, and where the dependent variables are human factors and ergonomic constructs. We present a framework which can be used to structure a set of questions for future work and prompt further empirical and conceptual inquiry. The framework consists of four steps: (1) establishing the purpose of the mesoergonomic investigation; (2) selecting human factors and ergonomics variables; (3) selecting a specific type of mesoergonomic investigation; and (4) establishing relationships between system levels. In addition, we describe two case studies which illustrate the workings of the framework and the value of adopting a mesoergonomic perspective within HFE. The paper concludes with a set of issues which could form part of a future agenda for research within systems ergonomics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial variation in personal ambient temperatures for outdoor working populations in the southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugg, Margaret M.; Fuhrmann, Christopher M.; Runkle, Jennifer D.

2018-05-01

Excessive ambient temperature exposure can result in significant morbidity and mortality, especially among vulnerable occupational groups like outdoor workers. Average temperatures in the USA are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, placing future worker populations at greater risk for unhealthy levels of exposure. Unlike previous research focused on aggregate-level temperature exposures from in situ weather station data, this study will measure location-based personal ambient temperatures (PAT) at the individual-level by piloting the use of wearable sensor technology. A total of 66 outdoor workers in three geographically and climatologically diverse regions in the Southeast USA were continuously sampled during the workday for a 1-week period throughout July 11 to August 8 2016. Results indicate significant worker variation in temperature exposure within and between study locations; with PAT characterized by less pronounced variability as workers moved between indoor and outdoor environments. Developed land covers, a factor often associated with higher temperatures, were poorly correlated with PAT. Future analysis should focus on a worker's physiological response to PAT and mapping of spatial patterns of PAT for a larger worker population to produce innovative and targeted heat prevention programs.

User Satisfaction Assessment To Edu-Eco Tourism Services Of Cibodas Botanical Garden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayat, I. W.; Winarni

2017-10-01

Cibodas Botanical Garden (CBG) is a government institution which has principal duties and functions as area of conservation ex situ of wet highland plants, research, education and tourism, it very closely related to aspect of the services to user. Good services will support the sustainability and existence of CBG as a world class edu-eco tourism destination. The purpose of this study was to measure the quality of services which delivered and improvement which necessary at the future. Assessments were made based on 14 criteria of services aspect for user which need research-education services and regular tourism services activities. The study was conducted by distributing questionnaires to users of these services. Questionnaires distribution was conducted in early August 2015 and August 2016, the respondents were 124 and 207. The results were showed the user satisfaction at good level, there were 77.685 in 2015 and 72.08 in 2016. Although still at a good level, there were a decline in satisfaction levels based on the value. In the future, the managerial needs to continuously to improve it, in order to get a good or very good valuation.

Are environmental scanning units effective?

PubMed

Stubbart, C

1982-06-01

Many authorities have urged companies to set up environmental scanning to assist corporate planning. Some advocates have recommended a unit at corporate level. This would give breadth of view and penetration into the future. It would arm decision makers with accurate forecasts. The information would be broad in scope and future directed. It could provide also assumptions for long-range planning. The Fahey and King study produced a model of corporate scanning types. The data showed that environmental information was built into the plan. Though the political environment was important, scanning was inadequate. The best location for scanning was not at corporate level and most firms used irregular methods. The Thomas study concluded that effective environmental scanning was permanent and multi level and that 'best practice' was continuous scanning. In 1978 the sample organizations were revisited. Five of the twelve have not changed their practice. The factors which encouraged a continuous model were the attitudes of academics and business media, demonstrated success of the units, the right kind of personnel. Contrary influences were changes in top management, decentralization moves, resource cuts, defining the environment and its significance, the availability of scanning competent personnel, surprise itself, and the availability of alternatives e.g. external forecasts.

Women's perceived internal control of future pregnancy outcomes and its related factors.

PubMed

Maleki, Azam; Mazloomzadeh, Saeideh

2013-03-01

With regards to the importance of women's beliefs in improving pregnancy outcomes, this study was performed to determine the perceived internal control on future pregnancy outcomes and its related factors in women who participated in pre-marital counseling. In a cross-sectional study, women's perceived internal control was investigated. The study population comprised the women in reproductive age of whom 400 were selected by random sampling. Data collection instrument was a questionnaire consisting of demographic, pre-conceptional care, and internal control questions. Two categories of favorite and not favorite levels of internal control were defined based on the total score. The validity of the questionnaire was determined via content validity method by use of experts' opinion and its reliability was evaluated through the calculation of Cronbach's alpha coefficient which was 0.76. Data were analyzed through frequency tables, correlation coefficient, and Chi-square test at the confidence level of 0.95. Two hundred sixty-five (65%) women had a good perceived internal control and it was significantly associated with the age, educational level, and hearing about pre-conceptional care. The internal control score also showed a positive and significant correlation with both age and the subject knowledge about folic acid (r = 0.19 and r = 0.15, respectively). The majority of women had a favorite perceived internal control. Since age and educational level were the affecting factors on the perceived internal control of women, promoting the level of internal control in young women and those with low education in pre-marital counseling classes seems necessary.

Integrated Translatome and Proteome: Approach for Accurate Portraying of Widespread Multifunctional Aspects of Trichoderma

PubMed Central

Sharma, Vivek; Salwan, Richa; Sharma, P. N.; Gulati, Arvind

2017-01-01

Genome-wide studies of transcripts expression help in systematic monitoring of genes and allow targeting of candidate genes for future research. In contrast to relatively stable genomic data, the expression of genes is dynamic and regulated both at time and space level at different level in. The variation in the rate of translation is specific for each protein. Both the inherent nature of an mRNA molecule to be translated and the external environmental stimuli can affect the efficiency of the translation process. In biocontrol agents (BCAs), the molecular response at translational level may represents noise-like response of absolute transcript level and an adaptive response to physiological and pathological situations representing subset of mRNAs population actively translated in a cell. The molecular responses of biocontrol are complex and involve multistage regulation of number of genes. The use of high-throughput techniques has led to rapid increase in volume of transcriptomics data of Trichoderma. In general, almost half of the variations of transcriptome and protein level are due to translational control. Thus, studies are required to integrate raw information from different “omics” approaches for accurate depiction of translational response of BCAs in interaction with plants and plant pathogens. The studies on translational status of only active mRNAs bridging with proteome data will help in accurate characterization of only a subset of mRNAs actively engaged in translation. This review highlights the associated bottlenecks and use of state-of-the-art procedures in addressing the gap to accelerate future accomplishment of biocontrol mechanisms. PMID:28900417

Socioeconomic Disadvantage as a Social Determinant of Teen Childbearing in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Penman-Aguilar, Ana; Carter, Marion; Snead, M. Christine; Kourtis, Athena P.

2013-01-01

Objectives We reviewed the literature focused on socioeconomic influences on teen childbearing and suggested directions for future research and practice related to this important indicator of teen sexual health. Methods We conducted an electronic search of Medline, ERIC, PsychLit, and Sociological Abstracts databases for articles published from January 1995 to November 2011. Selected articles from peer-reviewed journals included original quantitative analyses addressing socioeconomic influences on first birth among teen women in the U.S. Articles were abstracted for key information, ranked for quality according to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force guidelines, assessed for bias, and synthesized. Results We selected articles with a range of observational study designs. Risk for bias varied across studies. All 12 studies that considered socioeconomic factors as influences on teen childbearing (vs. moderators or mediators of other effects) reported at least one statistically significant association relating low socioeconomic status, underemployment, low income, low education levels, neighborhood disadvantage, neighborhood physical disorder, or neighborhood-level income inequality to teen birth. Few reports included any associations contradicting this pattern. Conclusions This review suggests that unfavorable socioeconomic conditions experienced at the community and family levels contribute to the high teen birth rate in the U.S. Future research into social determinants of sexual health should include multiple levels of measurement whenever possible. Root causes of teen childbearing should be evaluated in various populations and contexts. Interventions that address socioeconomic influences at multiple levels could positively affect large numbers of teens and help eliminate disparities in teen childbearing. PMID:23450881

The Implementation of the Bologna Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kettunen, Juha; Kantola, Mauri

2006-01-01

This study identifies the responsibilities of the bodies and institutions involved in the implementation of the Bologna Process. They include the levels of Europe, nations, higher education institutions, departments, degree programmes, teachers and students. The future planning is analysed using the Balanced Scorecard approach designed for the…

Manufacturing Education Curriculum Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Umstattd, William D.

The Manufacturing Education Curriculum Project's feasibility study concerned with industrial arts curriculum development in manufacturing for the senior high school level is described. The need for an industrial arts curriculum which meets and reflects present and future trends is discussed in the introduction, followed by a review of the…

Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Judi, David R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 %more » and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.« less

Inattention in primary school is not good for your future school achievement—A pattern classification study

PubMed Central

Bøe, Tormod; Lundervold, Arvid

2017-01-01

Inattention in childhood is associated with academic problems later in life. The contribution of specific aspects of inattentive behaviour is, however, less known. We investigated feature importance of primary school teachers’ reports on nine aspects of inattentive behaviour, gender and age in predicting future academic achievement. Primary school teachers of n = 2491 children (7–9 years) rated nine items reflecting different aspects of inattentive behaviour in 2002. A mean academic achievement score from the previous semester in high school (2012) was available for each youth from an official school register. All scores were at a categorical level. Feature importances were assessed by using multinominal logistic regression, classification and regression trees analysis, and a random forest algorithm. Finally, a comprehensive pattern classification procedure using k-fold cross-validation was implemented. Overall, inattention was rated as more severe in boys, who also obtained lower academic achievement scores in high school than girls. Problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were together with age and gender defined as the most important features to predict future achievement scores. Using these four features as input to a collection of classifiers employing k-fold cross-validation for prediction of academic achievement level, we obtained classification accuracy, precision and recall that were clearly better than chance levels. Primary school teachers’ reports of problems related to sustained attention and distractibility were identified as the two most important features of inattentive behaviour predicting academic achievement in high school. Identification and follow-up procedures of primary school children showing these characteristics should be prioritised to prevent future academic failure. PMID:29182663