A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

2017-01-01

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

2017-04-01

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

Long-term Prognosis in COPD Exacerbation: Role of Biomarkers, Clinical Variables and Exacerbation Type.

PubMed

Grolimund, Eva; Kutz, Alexander; Marlowe, Robert J; Vögeli, Alaadin; Alan, Murat; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Thomann, Robert; Falconnier, Claudine; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Zimmerli, Werner; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2015-06-01

Long-term outcome prediction in COPD is challenging. We conducted a prospective 5-7-year follow-up study in patients with COPD to determine the association of exacerbation type, discharge levels of inflammatory biomarkers including procalctionin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC) and plasma proadrenomedullin (ProADM), alone or combined with demographic/clinical characteristics, with long-term all-cause mortality in the COPD setting. The analyzed cohort comprised 469 patients with index hospitalization for pneumonic (n = 252) or non-pneumonic (n = 217) COPD exacerbation. Five-to-seven-year vital status was ascertained via structured phone interviews with patients or their household members/primary care physicians. We investigated predictive accuracy using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). After a median [25th-75th percentile] 6.1 [5.6-6.5] years, mortality was 55% (95%CI 50%-59%). Discharge ProADM concentration was strongly associated with 5-7-year non-survival: adjusted hazard ratio (HR)/10-fold increase (95%CI) 10.4 (6.2-17.7). Weaker associations were found for PCT and no significant associations were found for CRP or WBC. Combining ProADM with demographic/clinical variables including age, smoking status, BMI, New York Heart Association dyspnea class, exacerbation type, and comorbidities significantly improved long-term predictive accuracy over that of the demographic/clinical model alone: AUC (95%CI) 0.745 (0.701-0.789) versus 0.727 (0.681-0.772), (p) = .043. In patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation, discharge ProADM levels appeared to accurately predict 5-7-year all-cause mortality and to improve long-term prognostic accuracy of multidimensional demographic/clinical mortality risk assessment.

Long-term Adjustment After Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design.

PubMed

Ai, A L; Ladd, K L; Peterson, C; Cook, C A; Shearer, M; Koenig, H G

2010-12-01

despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when patients employ prayer as part of their coping strategy. The present study examines multifaceted effects of religious factors on long-term postoperative adjustment, extending our previous findings concerning prayer and coping with cardiac disease. analyses capitalized on a preoperative survey and medical variables from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' National Database of patients undergoing open heart surgery. The current participants completed a mailed survey 30 months after surgery. Two hierarchical regressions were performed to evaluate the extent to which religious factors predicted depression and anxiety, after controlling for key demographics, medical indices, and mental health. predicting lower levels of depression at the follow-up were preoperative use of prayer for coping, optimism, and hope. Predicting lower levels of anxiety at the follow-up were subjective religiousness, marital status, and hope. Predicting poorer adjustment were reverence in religious contexts, preoperative mental health symptoms, and medical comorbidity. Including optimism and hope in the model did not eliminate effects of religious factors. Several other religious factors had no long-term influences. MPLICATIONS: the influence of religious factors on the long-term postoperative adjustment is independent and complex, with mediating factors yet to be determined. Future research should investigate mechanisms underlying religion-health relations.

A multilevel analysis of long-term psychological distress among Belarusians affected by the Chernobyl disaster.

PubMed

Beehler, G P; Baker, J A; Falkner, K; Chegerova, T; Pryshchepava, A; Chegerov, V; Zevon, M; Bromet, E; Havenaar, J; Valdismarsdottir, H; Moysich, K B

2008-11-01

Radiation contamination and sociopolitical instability following the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster have had a profound impact on Belarus. To investigate the factors that impact long-term mental health outcomes of this population almost 20 years after the disaster. Cross-sectional study. In-person interviews were conducted with 381 men and women from two geographic areas of differing radiation contamination within Belarus. Participants completed surveys of demographics, psychosocial factors and psychological distress. Individual-level characteristics were combined with household-level measures of radiation contamination exposure and family characteristics to create multilevel predictive models of psychological distress. Between-household effects accounted for 20% of variability in depression and anxiety scores, but only 8% of variability in somatization scores. Degree of chronic daily stressors showed a significant positive relationship with psychological distress, whereas mastery/controllability showed a significant inverse relationship with distress. At household level, perceived family problems, but not level of residential radiation contamination, was the best predictor of distress. Multilevel modelling indicates that long-term psychological distress among Belarusians affected by the Chernobyl disaster is better predicted by stress-moderating psychosocial factors present in one's daily life than by level of residential radiation contamination.

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex

2015-10-26

Emergent constraints are physically explainable empirical relationships between characteristics of the current climate and long-term climate prediction that emerge in collections of climate model simulations. With the prospect of constraining long-term climate prediction, scientists have recently uncovered several emergent constraints related to long-term cloud feedbacks. We review these proposed emergent constraints, many of which involve the behavior of low-level clouds, and discuss criteria to assess their credibility. With further research, some of the cases we review may eventually become confirmed emergent constraints, provided they are accompanied by credible physical explanations. Because confirmed emergent constraints identify a source of model errormore » that projects onto climate predictions, they deserve extra attention from those developing climate models and climate observations. While a systematic bias cannot be ruled out, it is noteworthy that the promising emergent constraints suggest larger cloud feedback and hence climate sensitivity.« less

A framework for evaluating forest landscape model predictions using empirical data and knowledge

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Qia Wang

2014-01-01

Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates short- and long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale evaluation is...

Web-based decision support system to predict risk level of long term rice production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhlash, Imam; Maulidiyah, Ratna; Sutikno; Setiyono, Budi

2017-09-01

Appropriate decision making in risk management of rice production is very important in agricultural planning, especially for Indonesia which is an agricultural country. Good decision would be obtained if the supporting data required are satisfied and using appropriate methods. This study aims to develop a Decision Support System that can be used to predict the risk level of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java. Web-based decision support system is constructed so that the information can be easily accessed and understood. Components of the system are data management, model management, and user interface. This research uses regression models of OLS and Copula. OLS model used to predict rainfall while Copula model used to predict harvested area. Experimental results show that the models used are successfully predict the harvested area of rice production in some districts which are central of rice production in East Java at any given time based on the conditions and climate of a region. Furthermore, it can predict the amount of rice production with the level of risk. System generates prediction of production risk level in the long term for some districts that can be used as a decision support for the authorities.

Measuring short-term and long-term physiological stress effects by cortisol reactivity in saliva and hair.

PubMed

van Holland, Berry J; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Sluiter, Judith K

2012-11-01

The aims of this study were to investigate (1) the concurrent relationship between short-term and long-term stress reactivity measured by cortisol excretion and (2) the relationship of these physiological stress effects with self-reported stress and need for recovery after work (NFR). Participants were production workers in the meat-processing industry. Short-term cortisol excretion was calculated by summing 18 saliva samples, sampled over a 3-day period. Samples were delivered by 37 participants. Twenty-nine of them also supplied one hair sample of at least 3 cm in length for an analysis of long-term (3 months) cortisol excretion. All of them filled in a short questionnaire on self-reported stress and NFR. Self-reported stress was assessed by a three-item stress screener; NFR was assessed by an 11-item scale. Short-term and long-term cortisol excretion are significantly, but moderately, associated (r = 0.41, P = 0.03). Short-term and long-term cortisol excretion correlated weakly to self-reported stress and NFR (correlations varied from -0.04 to 0.21). Short-term and long-term physiological stress excretion levels are moderately associated. Physiological stress effects assessed from saliva and hair cannot be used interchangeably with self-reported stress because they only correlate weakly. To better predict long-term cortisol excretion in workers, the predictive value of short-term cortisol excretion must be evaluated in a prognostic longitudinal study in a working population.

Does Wartime Captivity Affect Late-life Mental Health? A Study of Vietnam-era Repatriated Prisoners of War

PubMed Central

Park, Crystal L.; Kaiser, Anica Pless; Spiro, Avron; King, Daniel W.; King, Lynda A.

2012-01-01

Our earlier study of U.S. prisoners of war in Vietnam (King et al., 2011) examined personal and military demographics and aspects of the stressful experience of wartime imprisonment as they related to psychological well-being shortly after homecoming in 1973. Research with repatriated prisoners of war (RPWs) from other military eras suggests that the severity of captivity stressors might predict long-term distress. However, the extent to which effects of the captivity experience persisted for Vietnam-era RPWs is unknown. The present study extended our previous analyses by examining the associations of demographic factors, captivity stressors, and repatriation mental health with subsequent symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depressive symptoms (measured nearly 30 years later) in a sample of 292 Vietnam-era RPWs. Results indicated that although most of the men in our sample were within normal limits on anxiety and depressive symptoms, a substantial minority reported experiencing clinically significant levels. Levels of PTSD symptoms were generally low, with only a modest proportion demonstrating elevations. Multiple regression analyses showed that age at capture and posttraumatic stress symptoms at repatriation predicted all three long-term mental health outcomes. In addition, physical torture predicted long-term PTSD symptoms. Findings highlight the potential long-term effects of wartime captivity, and also suggest that most Vietnam-era RPWs demonstrate remarkable resilience to extraordinarily stressful life experiences. PMID:22984347

Predicting Long-term Temperature Increase for Time-Dependent SAR Levels with a Single Short-term Temperature Response

PubMed Central

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Purpose Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). Methods After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and Impulse-Response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes’ bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. Results The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time, and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. Conclusion With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. (200/200 words) PMID:26096947

Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

PubMed

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

2016-05-01

Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

What Ever Happened To The ‘Cool’ Kids? Long-Term Sequelae Of Early Adolescent Pseudomature Behavior

PubMed Central

Allen, Joseph P.; Schad, Megan M.; Oudekerk, Barbara; Chango, Joanna

2014-01-01

Pseudomature behavior—ranging from minor delinquency to precocious romantic involvement—is widely viewed as a nearly normative feature of adolescence. When such behavior occurs early in adolescence, however, it was hypothesized to reflect a misguided overemphasis upon impressing peers and was considered likely to predict long-term adjustment problems. In a multi-method, multi-reporter study following a community sample of 184 adolescents from age 13 to 23, early adolescent pseudomature behavior was linked cross-sectionally to a heightened desire for peer popularity and to short-term success with peers. Longitudinal results, however, supported the study’s central hypothesis: Early adolescent pseudomature behavior predicted long-term difficulties in close relationships, as well as significant problems with alcohol and substance use, and elevated levels of criminal behavior. PMID:24919537

Humans, Topograpghy, and Wildland Fire: The Ingredients for Long-term Patterns in Ecosystems

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2000-01-01

Three factors, human population density, topography, and culture interact to create temporal and spatial differences in the frequency of fire at the landscape level. These factors can be quantitatively related to fire frequency. The fire model can be used to reconstruct historic and to predict future frequency of fire in ecosystems, as well as to identify long-term...

Humans, topography, and wildland fire: The ingredients for long-term patterns in ecosystems

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2000-01-01

Three factors, human population density, topography,and culture interact to create temporal and spatial differences in the frequency of fire at the landscape level. These facters can be quantitatively related to fire frequency. The fire model can be used to reconstruct historic and to predict future frequency of fire in ecosystems, as well as to identify long-term...

Long-term Adjustment After Surviving Open Heart Surgery: The Effect of Using Prayer for Coping Replicated in a Prospective Design

PubMed Central

Ai, A. L.; Ladd, K. L.; Peterson, C.; Cook, C. A.; Shearer, M.; Koenig, H. G.

2010-01-01

Purpose: Despite the growing evidence for effects of religious factors on cardiac health in general populations, findings are not always consistent in sicker and older populations. We previously demonstrated that short-term negative outcomes (depression and anxiety) among older adults following open heart surgery are partially alleviated when patients employ prayer as part of their coping strategy. The present study examines multifaceted effects of religious factors on long-term postoperative adjustment, extending our previous findings concerning prayer and coping with cardiac disease. Design and Methods: Analyses capitalized on a preoperative survey and medical variables from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ National Database of patients undergoing open heart surgery. The current participants completed a mailed survey 30 months after surgery. Two hierarchical regressions were performed to evaluate the extent to which religious factors predicted depression and anxiety, after controlling for key demographics, medical indices, and mental health. Results: Predicting lower levels of depression at the follow-up were preoperative use of prayer for coping, optimism, and hope. Predicting lower levels of anxiety at the follow-up were subjective religiousness, marital status, and hope. Predicting poorer adjustment were reverence in religious contexts, preoperative mental health symptoms, and medical comorbidity. Including optimism and hope in the model did not eliminate effects of religious factors. Several other religious factors had no long-term influences. Implications: The influence of religious factors on the long-term postoperative adjustment is independent and complex, with mediating factors yet to be determined. Future research should investigate mechanisms underlying religion–health relations. PMID:20634280

Nutrition-related risk indexes and long-term mortality in noncritically ill inpatients who receive total parenteral nutrition (prospective multicenter study).

PubMed

Tapia, María José; Ocón, Julia; Cabrejas-Gómez, Carmen; Ballesteros-Pomar, María D; Vidal-Casariego, Alfonso; Arraiza-Irigoyen, Carmen; Olivares, Josefina; Conde-García, Ma Carmen; García-Manzanares, Álvaro; Botella-Romero, Francisco; Quílez-Toboso, Rosa P; Cabrerizo, Lucio; Rubio, Miguel A; Chicharro, Luisa; Burgos, Rosa; Pujante, Pedro; Ferrer, Mercedes; Zugasti, Ana; Petrina, Estrella; Manjón, Laura; Diéguez, Marta; Carrera, Ma José; Vila-Bundo, Anna; Urgelés, Juan Ramón; Aragón-Valera, Carmen; Sánchez-Vilar, Olga; Bretón, Irene; García-Peris, Pilar; Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Márquez, Efren; del Olmo, Dolores; Pereira, José Luis; Tous, María C; Olveira, Gabriel

2015-10-01

Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is associated with an increased risk of death, in both the short and the long term. The purpose of this study was to determine which nutrition-related risk index predicts long-term mortality better (three years) in patients who receive total parenteral nutrition (TPN). This prospective, multicenter study involved noncritically ill patients who were prescribed TPN during hospitalization. Data were collected on Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), body mass index, albumin and prealbumin, as well as long-term mortality. Over the 1- and 3-year follow-up periods, 174 and 244 study subjects (28.8% and 40.3%) respectively, died. Based on the Cox proportional hazards survival model, the nutrition-related risk indexes most strongly associated with mortality were SGA and albumin (<2.5 g/dL) (after adjustment for age, gender, C-reactive protein levels, prior comorbidity, mean capillary blood glucose during TPN infusion, diabetes status prior to TPN, diagnosis, and infectious complications during hospitalization). The SGA and very low albumin levels are simple tools that predict the risk of long-term mortality better than other tools in noncritically ill patients who receive TPN during hospitalization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

[Predictors of long-term remission after transsphenoidal surgery in Cushing's disease].

PubMed

Abellán Galiana, Pablo; Fajardo Montañana, Carmen; Riesgo Suárez, Pedro Antonio; Gómez Vela, José; Escrivá, Carlos Meseguer; Lillo, Vicente Rovira

2013-10-01

There is no consensus on the remission criteria for Cushing's disease or on the definition of disease recurrence after transsphenoidal surgery, and comparison of the different published series is therefore difficult. A long-term recurrence rate of Cushing's disease ranging from 2%-25% has been reported. Predictors of long-term remission reported include: 1) adenoma-related factors (aggressiveness, size, preoperative identification in MRI), 2) surgery-related factors, mainly neurosurgeon experience, 3) clinical factors, of which dependence on and duration of glucocorticoid treatment are most important, and 4) biochemical factors. Among the latter, low postoperative cortisol levels, less than 2 mcg/dL predict for disease remission. However, even when undetectable plasma cortisol levels are present, long-term recurrence may still occur and lifetime follow-up is required. We report the preliminary results of the first 20 patients with Cushing's disease operated on at our hospital using nadir cortisol levels less than 2 mcg/dl as remission criterion. Copyright © 2012 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Motivation to quit as a predictor of smoking cessation and abstinence maintenance among treated Spanish smokers.

PubMed

Piñeiro, Bárbara; López-Durán, Ana; Del Río, Elena Fernández; Martínez, Úrsula; Brandon, Thomas H; Becoña, Elisardo

2016-02-01

Although quitting motivation predicts smoking cessation, there have been inconsistent findings regarding motivation predicting long-term maintenance of abstinence. Moreover, most such research has been conducted in North America and the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to examine motivation to quit as a predictor of smoking cessation and of abstinence maintenance in a Spanish sample. The sample comprised 286 Spanish smokers undergoing psychological treatment for smoking cessation. Motivation to quit was assessed pre-treatment and post-treatment with the Readiness to Quit Ladder. Abstinence post-treatment and at 6month follow-up was biochemically verified. Participants with higher levels of pre-treatment and post-treatment motivation were more likely to be abstinent at the end of the treatment (OR=1.36) and at 6month follow-up (OR=4.88). Among abstainers at the end of the treatment (61.9%), higher levels of motivation to quit post-treatment predicted maintaining abstinence at 6months (OR=2.83). Furthermore, participants who failed to quit smoking reported higher levels of motivation to quit post-treatment than they had pretreatment (p<.001). Motivation to quit smoking predicted short and long-term cessation, and also predicted long-term maintenance of abstinence. These results have implications for understanding motivational processes of smoking cessation in general, while extending research to Spanish smokers. They may also help in the design of cessation and relapse-prevention interventions. Specifically, the results suggest that motivational enhancement is important throughout the cessation and maintenance periods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term strength and damage accumulation in laminates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzenis, Yuris A.; Joshi, Shiv P.

1993-04-01

A modified version of the probabilistic model developed by authors for damage evolution analysis of laminates subjected to random loading is utilized to predict long-term strength of laminates. The model assumes that each ply in a laminate consists of a large number of mesovolumes. Probabilistic variation functions for mesovolumes stiffnesses as well as strengths are used in the analysis. Stochastic strains are calculated using the lamination theory and random function theory. Deterioration of ply stiffnesses is calculated on the basis of the probabilities of mesovolumes failures using the theory of excursions of random process beyond the limits. Long-term strength and damage accumulation in a Kevlar/epoxy laminate under tension and complex in-plane loading are investigated. Effects of the mean level and stochastic deviation of loading on damage evolution and time-to-failure of laminate are discussed. Long-term cumulative damage at the time of the final failure at low loading levels is more than at high loading levels. The effect of the deviation in loading is more pronounced at lower mean loading levels.

Segmented-memory recurrent neural networks.

PubMed

Chen, Jinmiao; Chaudhari, Narendra S

2009-08-01

Conventional recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have difficulties in learning long-term dependencies. To tackle this problem, we propose an architecture called segmented-memory recurrent neural network (SMRNN). A symbolic sequence is broken into segments and then presented as inputs to the SMRNN one symbol per cycle. The SMRNN uses separate internal states to store symbol-level context, as well as segment-level context. The symbol-level context is updated for each symbol presented for input. The segment-level context is updated after each segment. The SMRNN is trained using an extended real-time recurrent learning algorithm. We test the performance of SMRNN on the information latching problem, the "two-sequence problem" and the problem of protein secondary structure (PSS) prediction. Our implementation results indicate that SMRNN performs better on long-term dependency problems than conventional RNNs. Besides, we also theoretically analyze how the segmented memory of SMRNN helps learning long-term temporal dependencies and study the impact of the segment length.

Space augmentation of military high-level waste disposal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, T.; Lees, L.; Divita, E.

1979-01-01

Space disposal of selected components of military high-level waste (HLW) is considered. This disposal option offers the promise of eliminating the long-lived radionuclides in military HLW from the earth. A space mission which meets the dual requirements of long-term orbital stability and a maximum of one space shuttle launch per week over a period of 20-40 years, is a heliocentric orbit about halfway between the orbits of earth and Venus. Space disposal of high-level radioactive waste is characterized by long-term predictability and short-term uncertainties which must be reduced to acceptably low levels. For example, failure of either the Orbit Transfer Vehicle after leaving low earth orbit, or the storable propellant stage failure at perihelion would leave the nuclear waste package in an unplanned and potentially unstable orbit. Since potential earth reencounter and subsequent burn-up in the earth's atmosphere is unacceptable, a deep space rendezvous, docking, and retrieval capability must be developed.

Long-Term Prognostic Implications of the Admission Shock Index in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction Who Received Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Abe, Naoyuki; Miura, Takashi; Miyashita, Yusuke; Hashizume, Naoto; Ebisawa, Soichiro; Motoki, Hirohiko; Tsujimura, Takuya; Ishihara, Takayuki; Uematsu, Masaaki; Katagiri, Toshio; Ishihara, Ryuma; Tosaka, Atsushi; Ikeda, Uichi

2017-04-01

The admission shock index (SI) enables prediction of short-term prognosis. This study investigated the prognostic implications of admission SI for predicting long-term prognoses for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The participants were 680 patients with AMI who received percutaneous coronary intervention. Shock index is the ratio of heart rate and systolic blood pressure. Patients were classified as admission SI <0.66 (normal) and ≥0.66 (elevated; 75th percentile). The end point was 5-year major adverse cardiac events (MACEs). Elevated admission SI was seen in 176 patients. Peak creatine kinase levels were significantly higher and left ventricular ejection fraction was lower in the elevated SI group, which had a worse MACEs. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, SI ≥0.66 was a risk factor for MACE. Elevated admission SI was associated with poorer long-term prognosis.

Uncovering Camouflage: Amygdala Activation Predicts Long-Term Memory of Induced Perceptual Insight

PubMed Central

Ludmer, Rachel; Dudai, Yadin; Rubin, Nava

2012-01-01

What brain mechanisms underlie learning of new knowledge from single events? We studied encoding in long-term memory of a unique type of one-shot experience, induced perceptual insight. While undergoing an fMRI brain scan, participants viewed degraded images of real-world pictures where the underlying objects were hard to recognize (‘camouflage’), followed by brief exposures to the original images (‘solution’), which led to induced insight (“Aha!”). A week later, participants’ memory was tested; a solution image was classified as ‘remembered’ if detailed perceptual knowledge was elicited from the camouflage image alone. During encoding, subsequently remembered images enjoyed higher activity in mid-level visual cortex and medial frontal cortex, but most pronouncedly in the amygdala, whose activity could be used to predict which solutions will remain in long-term memory. Our findings extend the known roles of amygdala in memory to include promoting of long-term memory of the sudden reorganization of internal representations. PMID:21382558

The Prime Diabetes Model: Novel Methods for Estimating Long-Term Clinical and Cost Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Valentine, William J; Pollock, Richard F; Saunders, Rhodri; Bae, Jay; Norrbacka, Kirsi; Boye, Kristina

Recent publications describing long-term follow-up from landmark trials and diabetes registries represent an opportunity to revisit modeling options in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). To develop a new product-independent model capable of predicting long-term clinical and cost outcomes. After a systematic literature review to identify clinical trial and registry data, a model was developed (the PRIME Diabetes Model) to simulate T1DM progression and complication onset. The model runs as a patient-level simulation, making use of covariance matrices for cohort generation and risk factor progression, and simulating myocardial infarction, stroke, angina, heart failure, nephropathy, retinopathy, macular edema, neuropathy, amputation, hypoglycemia, ketoacidosis, mortality, and risk factor evolution. Several approaches novel to T1DM modeling were used, including patient characteristics and risk factor covariance, a glycated hemoglobin progression model derived from patient-level data, and model averaging approaches to evaluate complication risk. Validation analyses comparing modeled outcomes with published studies demonstrated that the PRIME Diabetes Model projects long-term patient outcomes consistent with those reported for a number of long-term studies. Macrovascular end points were reliably reproduced across five different populations and microvascular complication risk was accurately predicted on the basis of comparisons with landmark studies and published registry data. The PRIME Diabetes Model is product-independent, available online, and has been developed in line with good practice guidelines. Validation has indicated that outcomes from long-term studies can be reliably reproduced. The model offers new approaches to long-standing challenges in diabetes modeling and may become a valuable tool for informing health care policy. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

YKL-40, CCL18 and SP-D predict mortality in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Spoorenberg, Simone M C; Vestjens, Stefan M T; Rijkers, Ger T; Meek, Bob; van Moorsel, Coline H M; Grutters, Jan C; Bos, Willem Jan W

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of four biomarkers, YKL-40, chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 18 (CCL18), surfactant protein-D (SP-D) and CA 15-3, in patients admitted with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). These markers have been studied extensively in chronic pulmonary disease, but in acute pulmonary disease their prognostic value is unknown. A total of 289 adult patients who were hospitalized with CAP and participated in a randomized controlled trial were enrolled. Biomarker levels were measured on the day of admission. Intensive care unit admission, 30-day, 1-year and long-term mortality (median follow-up of 5.4 years, interquartile range (IQR): 4.7-6.1) were recorded as outcomes. Median YKL-40 and CCL18 levels were significantly higher and levels of SP-D were significantly lower in CAP patients compared to healthy controls. Significantly higher YKL-40, CCL18 and SP-D levels were found in patients classified in pneumonia severity index classes 4-5 and with a CURB-65 score ≥2 compared to patients with less severe pneumonia. Furthermore, these three markers were significant predictors for long-term mortality in multivariate analysis and compared with C-reactive protein and procalcitonin level on admission, area under the curves were higher for 30-day, 1-year and long-term mortality. CA 15-3 levels were less predictive. YKL-40, CCL18 and SP-D levels were higher in patients with more severe pneumonia, possibly reflecting the extent of pulmonary inflammation. Of these, YKL-40 most significantly predicts mortality for CAP. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales

PubMed Central

Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.

2013-01-01

On 103- to 106-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2 in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely” (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times. PMID:23292932

Automatic estimation of aquifer parameters using long-term water supply pumping and injection records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Ning; Illman, Walter A.

2016-09-01

Analyses are presented of long-term hydrographs perturbed by variable pumping/injection events in a confined aquifer at a municipal water-supply well field in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada). Such records are typically not considered for aquifer test analysis. Here, the water-level variations are fingerprinted to pumping/injection rate changes using the Theis model implemented in the WELLS code coupled with PEST. Analyses of these records yield a set of transmissivity ( T) and storativity ( S) estimates between each monitoring and production borehole. These individual estimates are found to poorly predict water-level variations at nearby monitoring boreholes not used in the calibration effort. On the other hand, the geometric means of the individual T and S estimates are similar to those obtained from previous pumping tests conducted at the same site and adequately predict water-level variations in other boreholes. The analyses reveal that long-term municipal water-level records are amenable to analyses using a simple analytical solution to estimate aquifer parameters. However, uniform parameters estimated with analytical solutions should be considered as first rough estimates. More accurate hydraulic parameters should be obtained by calibrating a three-dimensional numerical model that rigorously captures the complexities of the site with these data.

Short- versus long-term responses to changing CO2 in a coastal dinoflagellate bloom: implications for interspecific competitive interactions and community structure.

PubMed

Tatters, Avery O; Schnetzer, Astrid; Fu, Feixue; Lie, Alle Y A; Caron, David A; Hutchins, David A

2013-07-01

Increasing pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2 ) in an "acidified" ocean will affect phytoplankton community structure, but manipulation experiments with assemblages briefly acclimated to simulated future conditions may not accurately predict the long-term evolutionary shifts that could affect inter-specific competitive success. We assessed community structure changes in a natural mixed dinoflagellate bloom incubated at three pCO2 levels (230, 433, and 765 ppm) in a short-term experiment (2 weeks). The four dominant species were then isolated from each treatment into clonal cultures, and maintained at all three pCO2 levels for approximately 1 year. Periodically (4, 8, and 12 months), these pCO2 -conditioned clones were recombined into artificial communities, and allowed to compete at their conditioning pCO2 level or at higher and lower levels. The dominant species in these artificial communities of CO2 -conditioned clones differed from those in the original short-term experiment, but individual species relative abundance trends across pCO2 treatments were often similar. Specific growth rates showed no strong evidence for fitness increases attributable to conditioning pCO2 level. Although pCO2 significantly structured our experimental communities, conditioning time and biotic interactions like mixotrophy also had major roles in determining competitive outcomes. New methods of carrying out extended mixed species experiments are needed to accurately predict future long-term phytoplankton community responses to changing pCO2 . © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

1986-01-01

The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

Measurement of intraoperative parathyroid hormone predicts long-term operative success.

PubMed

Westerdahl, Johan; Lindblom, Pia; Bergenfelz, Anders

2002-02-01

A decrease in the intraoperative parathyroid hormone (PTH) level predicts long-term operative success. A case series of consecutive patients undergoing parathyroidectomy with intraoperative PTH measurement. A university hospital. One hundred two patients with sporadic primary hyperparathyroidism underwent parathyroidectomy according to the principles of unilateral exploration with intraoperative PTH measurement. Longitudinal effects on levels of serum calcium and PTH. In 94 of 98 patients who underwent primary exploration because of a solitary adenoma, intraoperative PTH decreased at least 60% 15 minutes after gland excision. The 4 cases in which PTH fell to less than 60% were classified as false negatives. Patients examined for multiglandular disease (n = 4) were correctly predicted not to have an adenoma. Twenty-two patients (22%) were unavailable for 5-year follow-up. These patients were followed up for 2 months to 48 months (median, 24 months), and none developed recurrent primary hyperparathyroidism. Of the remaining 80 patients (78%), all but 1 patient had normal or slightly decreased serum calcium levels (mean +/- SD, 9.24 +/- 0.4 mg/dL [2.31 +/- 0.10 mmol/L]) at 5-year follow-up. One patient with hypercalcemia (10.6 mg/dL [2.65 mmol/L]) was interpreted to have developed renal failure with secondary hyperparathyroidism. Thirty-four patients had elevated serum PTH levels at least once during the postoperative study period, with normal or slightly decreased calcium concentrations. The prediction of late postoperative normocalcemia by means of intraoperative PTH measurement had an overall accuracy of 95%. The measurement of intraoperative PTH during surgery for primary hyperparathyroidism accurately differentiates between single- and multiple-gland disease and ensures good long-term results.

Long-term irradiance observation and short-term flare prediction with LYRA on PROBA2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dammasch, Ingolf; Dominique, Marie; West, Matthew; Katsiyannis, Thanassis; Ryan, Daniel; Wauters, Laurence

The solar radiometer LYRA on board the ESA micro-satellite PROBA2 has observed the Sun continuously since January 2010 in various spectral band passes, and has gained a considerable data base. Two of the LYRA channels cover the irradiance between soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet. The variation of the sunspot number appears to show a strong similarity with the variation of these channels, when their long-range development is taken into account. The same holds for SXR levels observed by the GOES satellites. Due to LYRA's bandwidth and coverage of various active-region temperatures, its relatively smooth development may yield some information on the structure of the current solar cycle. On its websites, LYRA presents not only EUV and SXR time series in near real-time, but also information on flare parameters and long-term irradiance and sunspot levels. It will be demonstrated whether it is possible to aid space weather forecast with these statistical data, especially for the prediction of expected flare strength on a daily basis.

In-hospital and long-term outcomes of congestive heart failure: Predictive value of B-type and amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptides and their ratio.

PubMed

Dai, Yuxiang; Yang, Jun; Takagi, Atsutoshi; Konishi, Hakuoh; Miyazaki, Tetsuro; Masuda, Hiroshi; Shimada, Kazunori; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Daida, Hiroyuki

2017-08-01

Relative changes in B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and amino terminal pro-BNP (NT-proBNP) levels may help to assess the risk of congestive heart failure (CHF). However, whether these levels at the time of admission enable the prediction of outcomes with acute exacerbation remains unknown. The current study determined the abilities of BNP, NT-proBNP and their ratio to predict in-hospital and long-term outcomes of patients with CHF. Patients who were admitted to the cardiac care unit of Juntendo University Hospital (Tokyo, Japan) with acute CHF onset were consecutively enrolled into the present observational study. Serum levels of BNP and NT-proBNP were immediately measured on admission, and other biomarkers and clinical data were also investigated. Of 195 enrolled patients, 16 (8.2%) succumbed to CHF in hospital and 124 (69.3%) reached the endpoint of mortality or readmission following a median follow-up of 14 months. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed body mass index, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate and C-reactive protein as independent predictors of the NT-proBNP/BNP ratio. BNP, NT-proBNP and their ratio were significantly higher among those who succumbed to CHF than in those who remained alive in hospital (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the ratio was an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality and long-term outcomes. In conclusion, the ratio of NT-proBNP to BNP more effectively predicts in-hospital outcomes than either factor alone and it may also help to predict outcomes among patients with acute exacerbation of HF.

Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with long-term survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: an NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group ancillary data study.

PubMed

Hamilton, C A; Miller, A; Casablanca, Y; Horowitz, N S; Rungruang, B; Krivak, T C; Richard, S D; Rodriguez, N; Birrer, M J; Backes, F J; Geller, M A; Quinn, M; Goodheart, M J; Mutch, D G; Kavanagh, J J; Maxwell, G L; Bookman, M A

2018-02-01

To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors. Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (>10years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The analysis dataset included 3010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p<0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC=0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors. The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with long-term survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: an NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group ancillary data study

PubMed Central

Hamilton, C. A.; Miller, A.; Casablanca, Y.; Horowitz, N. S.; Rungruang, B.; Krivak, T. C.; Richard, S. D.; Rodriguez, N.; Birrer, M.J.; Backes, F.J.; Geller, M.A.; Quinn, M.; Goodheart, M.J.; Mutch, D.G.; Kavanagh, J.J.; Maxwell, G. L.; Bookman, M. A.

2018-01-01

Objective To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors. Methods Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (>10 years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The analysis dataset included 3,010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p<0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC=0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors. Conclusions The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors. PMID:29195926

Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

2009-01-01

Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

Improvement of mindfulness skills during Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy predicts long-term reductions of neuroticism in persons with recurrent depression in remission.

PubMed

Spinhoven, Philip; Huijbers, Marloes J; Ormel, Johan; Speckens, Anne E M

2017-04-15

This study examined whether changes in mindfulness skills following Mindfulness-based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) are predictive of long-term changes in personality traits. Using data from the MOMENT study, we included 278 participants with recurrent depression in remission allocated to Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT). Mindfulness skills were measured with the FFMQ at baseline, after treatment and at 15-month follow-up and personality traits with the NEO-PI-R at baseline and follow-up. For 138 participants, complete repeated assessments of mindfulness and personality traits were available. Following MBCT participants manifested significant improvement of mindfulness skills. Moreover, at 15-month follow-up participants showed significantly lower levels of neuroticism and higher levels of conscientiousness. Large improvements in mindfulness skills after treatment predicted the long-term changes in neuroticism but not in conscientiousness, while controlling for use of maintenance antidepressant medication, baseline depression severity and change in depression severity during follow-up (IDS-C). In particular improvements in the facets of acting with awareness predicted lower levels of neuroticism. Sensitivity analyses with multiple data imputation yielded similar results. Uncontrolled clinical study with substantial attrition based on data of two randomized controlled trials. The design of the present study precludes to establish whether there is any causal association between changes in mindfulness and subsequent changes in neuroticism. MBCT could be a viable intervention to directly target one of the most important risk factors for onset and maintenance of recurrent depression and other mental disorders, i.e. neuroticism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vocabulary learning in primary school children: working memory and long-term memory components.

PubMed

Morra, Sergio; Camba, Roberta

2009-10-01

The goal of this study was to investigate which working memory and long-term memory components predict vocabulary learning. We used a nonword learning paradigm in which 8- to 10-year-olds learned picture-nonword pairs. The nonwords varied in length (two vs. four syllables) and phonology (native sounding vs. including one Russian phoneme). Short, phonologically native nonwords were learned best, whereas learning long nonwords leveled off after a few presentation cycles. Linear structural equation analyses showed an influence of three constructs-phonological sensitivity, vocabulary knowledge, and central attentional resources (M capacity)-on nonword learning, but the extent of their contributions depended on specific characteristics of the nonwords to be learned. Phonological sensitivity predicted learning of all nonword types except short native nonwords, vocabulary predicted learning of only short native nonwords, and M capacity predicted learning of short nonwords but not long nonwords. The discussion considers three learning processes-effortful activation of phonological representations, lexical mediation, and passive associative learning-that use different cognitive resources and could be involved in learning different nonword types.

Cognitive and affective trait and state factors influencing the long-term symptom course in remitted depressed patients.

PubMed

Timm, Christina; Ubl, Bettina; Zamoscik, Vera; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich; Reinhard, Iris; Huffziger, Silke; Kirsch, Peter; Kuehner, Christine

2017-01-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterized by a high risk for relapses and chronic developments. Clinical characteristics such as residual symptoms have been shown to negatively affect the long-term course of MDD. However, it is unclear so far how trait repetitive negative thinking (RNT) as well as cognitive and affective momentary states, the latter experienced during daily-life, affect the long-term course of MDD. We followed up 57 remitted depressed (rMDD) individuals six (T2) and 36 (T3) months after baseline. Clinical outcomes were time to relapse, time spent with significant symptoms as a marker of chronicity, and levels of depressive symptoms at T2 and T3. Predictors assessed at baseline included residual symptoms and trait RNT. Furthermore, momentary daily life affect and momentary rumination, and their variation over the day were assessed at baseline using ambulatory assessment (AA). In multiple models, residual symptoms and instability of daily-life affect at baseline independently predicted a faster time to relapse, while chronicity was significantly predicted by trait RNT. Multilevel models revealed that depressive symptom levels during follow-up were predicted by baseline residual symptom levels and by instability of daily-life rumination. Both instability features were linked to a higher number of anamnestic MDD episodes. Our findings indicate that trait RNT, but also affective and cognitive processes during daily life impact the longer-term course of MDD. Future longitudinal research on the role of respective AA-phenotypes as potential transdiagnostic course-modifiers is warranted.

Rising water levels and the future of southeastern Louisiana swamp forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conner, W.H.; Brody, M.

1989-01-01

An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servicea??s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50a??100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.

Long-Term Post-CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions.

PubMed

Carr, Brendan M; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C; Zhu, Wei; Shroyer, A Laurie

2016-01-01

Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short-term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long-term mortality. The added value of long-term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long-term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Long-term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c-index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one-, three-, and five years, respectively (median follow-up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long-term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Long-term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long-term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher-risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow-up care. More research appears warranted to refine long-term CABG clinical risk models. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Cardiac Surgery Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Creep behavior of bone cement: a method for time extrapolation using time-temperature equivalence.

PubMed

Morgan, R L; Farrar, D F; Rose, J; Forster, H; Morgan, I

2003-04-01

The clinical lifetime of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) bone cement is considerably longer than the time over which it is convenient to perform creep testing. Consequently, it is desirable to be able to predict the long term creep behavior of bone cement from the results of short term testing. A simple method is described for prediction of long term creep using the principle of time-temperature equivalence in polymers. The use of the method is illustrated using a commercial acrylic bone cement. A creep strain of approximately 0.6% is predicted after 400 days under a constant flexural stress of 2 MPa. The temperature range and stress levels over which it is appropriate to perform testing are described. Finally, the effects of physical aging on the accuracy of the method are discussed and creep data from aged cement are reported.

Predicting Sediment Thickness on Vanished Ocean Crust Since 200 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutkiewicz, A.; Müller, R. D.; Wang, X.; O'Callaghan, S.; Cannon, J.; Wright, N. M.

2017-12-01

Tracing sedimentation through time on existing and vanished seafloor is imperative for constraining long-term eustasy and for calculating volumes of subducted deep-sea sediments that contribute to global geochemical cycles. We present regression algorithms that incorporate the age of the ocean crust and the mean distance to the nearest passive margin to predict sediment thicknesses and long-term decompacted sedimentation rates since 200 Ma. The mean sediment thickness decreases from ˜220 m at 200 Ma to a minimum of ˜140 m at 130 Ma, reflecting the replacement of old Panthalassic ocean floor with young sediment-poor mid-ocean ridges, followed by an increase to ˜365 m at present-day. This increase reflects the accumulation of sediments on ageing abyssal plains proximal to passive margins, coupled with a decrease in the mean distance of any parcel of ocean crust to the nearest passive margin by over 700 km, and a doubling of the total passive margin length at present-day. Mean long-term sedimentation rates increase from ˜0.5 cm/ky at 160 Ma to over 0.8 cm/ky today, caused by enhanced terrigenous sediment influx along lengthened passive margins, superimposed by the onset of ocean-wide carbonate sedimentation. Our predictive algorithms, coupled to a plate tectonic model, provide a framework for constraining the seafloor sediment-driven eustatic sea-level component, which has grown from ˜80 to 210 m since 120 Ma. This implies a long-term sea-level rise component of 130 m, partly counteracting the contemporaneous increase in ocean basin depth due to progressive crustal ageing.

Post audit of a numerical prediction of wellfield drawdown in a semiconfined aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, M.; Langevin, C.

1999-01-01

A numerical ground water flow model was created in 1978 and revised in 1981 to predict the drawdown effects of a proposed municipal wellfield permitted to withdraw 30 million gallons per day (mgd; 1.1 x 105 m3/day) of water from the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer system. The predictions are based on the assumption that water levels in the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer reach a long-term, steady-state condition within a few days of initiation of pumping. Using this assumption, a 75 day simulation without water table recharge, pumping at the maximum permitted rates, was considered to represent a worst-case condition and the greatest drawdowns that could be experienced during wellfield operation. This method of predicting wellfield effects was accepted by the permitting agency. For this post audit, observed drawdowns were derived by taking the difference between pre-pumping and post-pumping potentiometric surface levels. Comparison of predicted and observed drawdowns suggests that actual drawdown over a 12 year period exceeds predicted drawdown by a factor of two or more. Analysis of the source of error in the 1981 predictions suggests that the values used for transmissivity, storativity, specific yield, and leakance are reasonable at the wellfield scale. Simulation using actual 1980-1992 pumping rates improves the agreement between predicted and observed drawdowns. The principal source of error is the assumption that water levels in a semiconfined aquifer achieve a steady-state condition after a few days or weeks of pumping. Simulations using a version of the 1981 model modified to include recharge and evapotranspiration suggest that it can take hundreds of days or several years for water levels in the linked Surficial and Floridan Aquifers to reach an apparent steady-state condition, and that slow declines in levels continue for years after the initiation of pumping. While the 1981 'impact' model can be used for reasonably predicting short-term, wellfield-scale effects of pumping, using a 75 day long simulation without recharge to predict the long-term behavior of the wellfield was an inappropriate application, resulting in significant underprediction of wellfield effects.A numerical ground water flow model was created in 1978 and revised in 1981 to predict the drawdown effects of a proposed municipal wellfield permitted to withdraw 30 million gallons per day (mgd; 1.1??105 m3/day) of water from the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer system. The predictions are based on the assumption that water levels in the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer reach a long-term, steady-state condition within a few days of initiation of pumping. Using this assumption, a 75 day simulation without water table recharge, pumping at the maximum permitted rates, was considered to represent a worst-case condition and the greatest drawdowns that could be experienced during wellfield operation. This method of predicting wellfield effects was accepted by the permitting agency. For this post audit, observed drawdowns were derived by taking the difference between pre-pumping and post-pumping potentiometric surface levels. Comparison of predicted and observed drawdowns suggests that actual drawdown over a 12 year period exceeds predicted drawdown by a factor of two or more. Analysis of the source of error in the 1981 predictions suggests that the values used for transmissivity, storativity, specific yield, and leakance are reasonable at the wellfield scale. Simulation using actual 1980-1992 pumping rates improves the agreement between predicted and observed drawdowns. The principal source of error is the assumption that water levels in a semiconfined aquifer achieve a steady-state condition after a few days or weeks of pumping. Simulations using a version of the 1981 model modified to include recharge and evapotranspiration suggest that it can take hundreds of days or several years for water levels in the linked Surficial and Floridan Aquifers to reach an apparent stead

Tumour necrosis factor-α/etanercept complexes in serum predict long-term efficacy of etanercept treatment in seronegative rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Berthold, E; Månsson, B; Gullstrand, B; Geborek, P; Saxne, T; Bengtsson, A A; Kahn, R

2018-01-01

To study whether serum levels of tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), free or bound to etanercept, in biological-naïve adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could predict the long-term efficacy of etanercept, measured as drug survival. We identified 145 biological-naïve patients with RA starting treatment with etanercept at the Department of Rheumatology, Skåne University Hospital (1999-2008), of whom 16 had seronegative and 129 seropositive RA. TNF-α in serum was quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in samples from the onset of treatment and at 6 week follow-up. Drug survival time was used to evaluate the long-term efficacy of etanercept. Levels of TNF-α were significantly increased at follow-up compared to at the start. At the 6 week follow-up, circulating TNF-α mainly comprised TNF-α in complex with etanercept. Longer drug survival time correlated with increased TNF-α at 6 week follow-up in the patients with seronegative RA, but not in the seropositive patients. We demonstrated that levels of circulating TNF-α increased in almost all individuals after initiation of treatment with etanercept and that this increase mainly comprised TNF-α in complex with etanercept. More importantly, this increase may predict drug survival in adults with seronegative, but not seropositive, RA and suggests that measuring TNF-α/etanercept complexes in serum may be relevant in patients with seronegative RA.

Disruption of hierarchical predictive coding during sleep

PubMed Central

Strauss, Melanie; Sitt, Jacobo D.; King, Jean-Remi; Elbaz, Maxime; Azizi, Leila; Buiatti, Marco; Naccache, Lionel; van Wassenhove, Virginie; Dehaene, Stanislas

2015-01-01

When presented with an auditory sequence, the brain acts as a predictive-coding device that extracts regularities in the transition probabilities between sounds and detects unexpected deviations from these regularities. Does such prediction require conscious vigilance, or does it continue to unfold automatically in the sleeping brain? The mismatch negativity and P300 components of the auditory event-related potential, reflecting two steps of auditory novelty detection, have been inconsistently observed in the various sleep stages. To clarify whether these steps remain during sleep, we recorded simultaneous electroencephalographic and magnetoencephalographic signals during wakefulness and during sleep in normal subjects listening to a hierarchical auditory paradigm including short-term (local) and long-term (global) regularities. The global response, reflected in the P300, vanished during sleep, in line with the hypothesis that it is a correlate of high-level conscious error detection. The local mismatch response remained across all sleep stages (N1, N2, and REM sleep), but with an incomplete structure; compared with wakefulness, a specific peak reflecting prediction error vanished during sleep. Those results indicate that sleep leaves initial auditory processing and passive sensory response adaptation intact, but specifically disrupts both short-term and long-term auditory predictive coding. PMID:25737555

Dispositional optimism as predictor of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Heinonen, Erkki; Heiskanen, Tiia; Lindfors, Olavi; Härkäpää, Kristiina; Knekt, Paul

2017-09-01

Dispositional optimism predicts various beneficial outcomes in somatic health and treatment, but has been little studied in psychotherapy. This study investigated whether an optimistic disposition differentially predicts patients' ability to benefit from short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. A total of 326 adult outpatients with mood and/or anxiety disorder were randomized into short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) or long-term psychodynamic therapy and followed up for 3 years. Dispositional optimism was assessed by patients at baseline with the self-rated Life Orientation Test (LOT) questionnaire. Outcome was assessed at baseline and seven times during the follow-up, in terms of depressive (BDI, HDRS), anxiety (SCL-90-ANX, HARS), and general psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90-GSI), all seven follow-up points including patients' self-reports and three including interview-based measures. Lower dispositional optimism predicted faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy. Higher optimism predicted equally rapid and eventually greater benefits in long-term, as compared to short-term, psychotherapy. Weaker optimism appeared to predict sustenance of problems early in long-term therapy. Stronger optimism seems to best facilitate engaging in and benefiting from a long-term therapy process. Closer research might clarify the psychological processes responsible for these effects and help fine-tune both briefer and longer interventions to optimize treatment effectiveness for particular patients and their psychological qualities. Weaker dispositional optimism does not appear to inhibit brief therapy from effecting symptomatic recovery. Patients with weaker optimism do not seem to gain added benefits from long-term therapy, but instead may be susceptible to prolonged psychiatric symptoms in the early stages of long-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Use long short-term memory to enhance Internet of Things for combined sewer overflow monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Duo; Lindholm, Geir; Ratnaweera, Harsha

2018-01-01

Combined sewer overflow causes severe water pollution, urban flooding and reduced treatment plant efficiency. Understanding the behavior of CSO structures is vital for urban flooding prevention and overflow control. Neural networks have been extensively applied in water resource related fields. In this study, we collect data from an Internet of Things monitoring CSO structure and build different neural network models for simulating and predicting the water level of the CSO structure. Through a comparison of four different neural networks, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP), wavelet neural network (WNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), the LSTM and GRU present superior capabilities for multi-step-ahead time series prediction. Furthermore, GRU achieves prediction performances similar to LSTM with a quicker learning curve.

The effect of long-term conventional physical therapy and independent predictive factors analysis in children with cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Chen, Yi-Nien; Liao, Su-Fen; Su, Li-Fei; Huang, Hsin-Ya; Lin, Chung-Che; Wei, Ta-Sen

2013-10-01

This study evaluated the effect of long-term conventional physical therapy (PT) on cerebral palsy (CP) children and to identify the predictors of therapy's response. We performed a retrospective review of CP children treated with PT, and their motor function was assessed every 3 months between 2008 and 2011. Fifty-six children with a mean age of 4.2 ± 2.8 years, gross motor function classification system (GMFCS) levels were level I (n = 14), level II (n = 20), level III (n = 5), level IV (n = 8), and level V (n = 9). In the generalized estimating equations model, there was a significant improvement in the Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM-66) score (p < 0.001); the improvement was different in five GMFCS levels (p < 0.001) and GMFCS level II had faster progression. The younger CP children had better PT efficacy, and the GMFM-66 score continued improving until 8.4 years old in the older group. The long-term conventional PT is effective even in older CP children, and PT was most efficient in younger children and GMFCS level II.

Relations of long-term and contemporary lipid levels and lipid genetic risk scores with coronary artery calcium in the framingham heart study.

PubMed

Tsao, Connie W; Preis, Sarah Rosner; Peloso, Gina M; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Kathiresan, Sekar; Fox, Caroline S; Cupples, L Adrienne; Hoffmann, Udo; O'Donnell, Christopher J

2012-12-11

This study evaluated the association of timing of lipid levels and lipid genetic risk score (GRS) with subclinical atherosclerosis. Atherosclerosis is a slowly progressive disorder influenced by suboptimal lipid levels. Long-term versus contemporary lipid levels may more strongly impact the development of coronary artery calcium (CAC). Framingham Heart Study (FHS) Offspring Cohort participants (n = 1,156, 44% male, 63 ± 9 years) underwent serial fasting lipids (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides), Exam 1 (1971 to 1975) to Exam 7 (1998 to 2001). FHS Third Generation Cohort participants (n = 1,954, 55% male, 45 ± 6 years) had fasting lipid profiles assessed, 2002 to 2005. Computed tomography (2002 to 2005) measured CAC. Lipid GRSs were computed from significantly associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The association between early, long-term average, and contemporary lipids, and lipid GRS with elevated CAC was assessed using logistic regression. In FHS Offspring, Exam 1 and long-term average as compared with Exam 7 lipid measurements, including untreated lipid levels, were strongly associated with elevated CAC. In the FHS Third Generation, contemporary lipids were associated with CAC. The LDL-C GRS was associated with CAC (age-/sex-adjusted odds ratio: 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 1.29, p = 0.04). However, addition of the GRS to the lipid models did not result in a significant increase in the odds ratio or C-statistic for any lipid measure. Early and long-term average lipid levels, as compared with contemporary measures, are more strongly associated with elevated CAC. Lipid GRS was associated with lipid levels but did not predict elevated CAC. Adult early and long-term average lipid levels provide important information when assessing subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term cortisol measures predict Alzheimer disease risk.

PubMed

Ennis, Gilda E; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M; Ferrucci, Luigi; O'Brien, Richard J; Moffat, Scott D

2017-01-24

To examine whether long-term measures of cortisol predict Alzheimer disease (AD) risk. We used a prospective longitudinal design to examine whether cortisol dysregulation was related to AD risk. Participants were from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) and submitted multiple 24-hour urine samples over an average interval of 10.56 years. Urinary free cortisol (UFC) and creatinine (Cr) were measured, and a UFC/Cr ratio was calculated to standardize UFC. To measure cortisol regulation, we used within-person UFC/Cr level (i.e., within-person mean), change in UFC/Cr over time (i.e., within-person slope), and UFC/Cr variability (i.e., within-person coefficient of variation). Cox regression was used to assess whether UFC/Cr measures predicted AD risk. UFC/Cr level and UFC/Cr variability, but not UFC/Cr slope, were significant predictors of AD risk an average of 2.9 years before AD onset. Elevated UFC/Cr level and elevated UFC/Cr variability were related to a 1.31- and 1.38-times increase in AD risk, respectively. In a sensitivity analysis, increased UFC/Cr level and increased UFC/Cr variability predicted increased AD risk an average of 6 years before AD onset. Cortisol dysregulation as manifested by high UFC/Cr level and high UFC/Cr variability may modulate the downstream clinical expression of AD pathology or be a preclinical marker of AD. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Drinker Identity: Key Risk Factor for Adolescent Alcohol Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chia-Kuei; Corte, Colleen; Stein, Karen F.

2018-01-01

Background: Adolescent alcohol use continues to be a critical public health problem with both short- and long-term negative health consequences. Defining oneself in terms of alcohol, a drinking-related identity, has been shown to predict high levels of alcohol use. Because adolescence is the developmental period during which identity development…

Poor early response to methotrexate portends inadequate long-term outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis: Evidence from 2 phase 3 clinical trials.

PubMed

Gordon, Kenneth B; Betts, Keith A; Sundaram, Murali; Signorovitch, James E; Li, Junlong; Xie, Meng; Wu, Eric Q; Okun, Martin M

2017-12-01

Most methotrexate-treated psoriasis patients do not achieve a long-term PASI75 (75% reduction from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score) response. Indications of nonresponse can be apparent after only 4 weeks of treatment. To develop a prediction rule to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. Patient-level data from CHAMPION (NCT00235820, N = 110) was used to construct a prediction model for week 16 PASI75 by using patient baseline characteristics and week 4 PASI25. A prediction rule was determined on the basis of the sensitivity and specificity and validated in terms of week 16 PASI75 response in an independent validation sample from trial M10-255 (NCT00679731, N = 163). PASI25 achievement at week 4 (odds ratio = 8.917) was highly predictive of response with methotrexate at week 16. Patients with a predicted response probability <30% were recommended to discontinue methotrexate. The rates of week 16 PASI75 response were 65.8% and 21.1% (P < .001) for patients recommended to continue and discontinue methotrexate, respectively. The CHAMPION trial excluded patients previously treated with biologics, and the M10-255 trial had no restrictions. A prediction rule was developed and validated to identify patients unlikely to respond adequately to methotrexate. The rule indicates that 4 weeks of methotrexate might be sufficient to predict long-term response with limited safety risk. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Lifetimes of Nuclear Waste Containers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Fraser

2014-03-01

As for many aspects of the disposal of nuclear waste, the greatest challenge we have in the study of container materials is the prediction of the long-term performance over periods of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Various methods have been used for predicting the lifetime of containers for the disposal of high-level waste or spent fuel in deep geological repositories. Both mechanical and corrosion-related failure mechanisms need to be considered, although until recently the interactions of mechanical and corrosion degradation modes have not been considered in detail. Failure from mechanical degradation modes has tended to be treated through suitable container design. In comparison, the inevitable loss of container integrity due to corrosion has been treated by developing specific corrosion models. The most important aspect, however, is to be able to justify the long-term predictions by demonstrating a mechanistic understanding of the various degradation modes.

Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach.

PubMed

Pham, Trang; Tran, Truyen; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha

2017-05-01

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, stored in electronic medical records are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors and models patient health state trajectories by the memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces methods to handle irregularly timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory. DeepCare also explicitly models medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden - diabetes and mental health - the results show improved prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

2015-09-01

It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

Report on Understanding and Predicting Effects of Thermal Aging on Microstructure and Tensile Properties of Grade 91 Steel for Structural Components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Meimei; Natesan, K.; Chen, Weiying

This report provides an update on understanding and predicting the effects of long-term thermal aging on microstructure and tensile properties of G91 to corroborate the ASME Code rules in strength reduction due to elevated temperature service. The research is to support the design and long-term operation of G91 structural components in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs). The report is a Level 2 deliverable in FY17 (M2AT-17AN1602017), under the Work Package AT-17AN160201, “SFR Materials Testing” performed by the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), as part of the Advanced Reactor Technologies Program.

Short-term foraging costs and long-term fueling rates in central-place foraging swans revealed by giving-up exploitation times.

PubMed

van Gils, J A; Tijsen, W

2007-05-01

Foragers tend to exploit patches to a lesser extent farther away from their central place. This has been interpreted as a response to increased risk of predation or increased metabolic costs of prey delivery. Here we show that migratory Bewick's swans (Cygnus columbianus bewickii), though not incurring greater predation risks farther out or delivering food to a central place, also feed for shorter periods at patches farther away from their roost. Predictions from an energy budget model suggest that increasing metabolic travel costs per se are responsible. Establishing the relation between intake rate and exploitation time enabled us to express giving-up exploitation times as quitting harvest rates (QHRs). This revealed that net QHRs were not different from observed long-term net intake rates, a sign that the birds were maximizing their long-term net intake rate. This study is unique because giving-up decisions were measured at the individual level, metabolic and predation costs were assessed simultaneously, the relation with harvest rate was made explicit, and finally, short-term giving-up decisions were related to long-term net intake rates. We discuss and conceptualize the implications of metabolic traveling costs for carrying-capacity predictions by bridging the gap between optimal-foraging theory and optimal-migration theory.

On the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory: Efficiency and noise robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogachev, Mikhail I.; Bunde, Armin

2011-06-01

We study the predictability of extreme events in records with linear and nonlinear long-range memory in the presence of additive white noise using two different approaches: (i) the precursory pattern recognition technique (PRT) that exploits solely the information about short-term precursors, and (ii) the return interval approach (RIA) that exploits long-range memory incorporated in the elapsed time after the last extreme event. We find that the PRT always performs better when only linear memory is present. In the presence of nonlinear memory, both methods demonstrate comparable efficiency in the absence of white noise. When additional white noise is present in the record (which is the case in most observational records), the efficiency of the PRT decreases monotonously with increasing noise level. In contrast, the RIA shows an abrupt transition between a phase of low level noise where the prediction is as good as in the absence of noise, and a phase of high level noise where the prediction becomes poor. In the phase of low and intermediate noise the RIA predicts considerably better than the PRT, which explains our recent findings in physiological and financial records.

Chesapeake Bay Forecast System: Oxygen Prediction for the Sustainable Ecosystem Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathukumalli, B.; Long, W.; Zhang, X.; Wood, R.; Murtugudde, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay Forecast System (CBFS) is a flexible, end-to-end expert prediction tool for decision makers that will provide customizable, user-specified predictions and projections of the region’s climate, air and water quality, local chemistry, and ecosystems at days to decades. As a part of CBFS, the long-term water quality data were collected and assembled to develop ecological models for the sustainable management of the Chesapeake Bay. Cultural eutrophication depletes oxygen levels in this ecosystem particularly in summer which has several negative implications on the structure and function of ecosystem. In order to understand dynamics and prediction of spatially-explicit oxygen levels in the Bay, an empirical process based ecological model is developed with long-term control variables (water temperature, salinity, nitrogen and phosphorus). Statistical validation methods were employed to demonstrate usability of predictions for management purposes and the predicted oxygen levels are quite faithful to observations. The predicted oxygen values and other physical outputs from downscaling of regional weather and climate predictions, or forecasts from hydrodynamic models can be used to forecast various ecological components. Such forecasts would be useful for both recreational and commercial users of the bay (for example, bass fishing). Furthermore, this work can also be used to predict extent of hypoxia/anoxia not only from anthropogenic nutrient pollution, but also from global warming. Some hindcasts and forecasts are discussed along with the ongoing efforts at a mechanistic ecosystem model to provide prognostic oxygen predictions and projections and upper trophic modeling using an energetics approach.

Secular changes of the M2 tide in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2005-01-01

Analyses of long time series of hourly tide-gauge data at four stations in the Gulf of Maine reveal that the amplitude of the M2 tide underwent a nearly linear secular increase throughout most of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, however, the amplitude of M2 abruptly dropped. Sea level changes alone appear inadequate to explain either the long-term trend or the recent trend discontinuity. Tidal models that account for Holocene sea level rise do predict an amplification of M2, but much smaller than the currently observed trends. Nor do recent annual mean sea levels correlate with the recent trend discontinuity. Some unknown fraction of the open Atlantic may be similarly affected, since the M2 discontinuity, but not the long-term secular increase in the tide, is evident also at Halifax.

Performance considerations in long-term spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akins, F. R.

1979-01-01

Maintenance of skilled performance during extended space flight is of critical importance to both the health and safety of crew members and to the overall success of mission goals. An examination of long term effects and performance requirements is therefore a factor of immense importance to the planning of future missions. Factors that were investigated include: definition of performance categories to be investigated; methods for assessing and predicting performance levels; in-flight factors which can affect performance; and factors pertinent to the maintenance of skilled performance.

Continuous real-time in vivo measurement of cerebral nitric oxide supports theoretical predictions of an irreversible switching in cerebral ROS after sufficient exposure to external toxins.

PubMed

Finnerty, Niall J; O'Riordan, Saidhbhe L; Lowry, John P; Cloutier, Mathieu; Wellstead, Peter

2013-01-01

Mathematical models of the interactions between alphasynuclein (αS) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) predict a systematic and irreversible switching to damagingly high levels of ROS after sufficient exposure to risk factors associated with Parkinson's disease (PD). We tested this prediction by continuously monitoring real-time changes in neurochemical levels over periods of several days in animals exposed to a toxin known to cause Parkinsonian symptoms. Nitric oxide (NO) sensors were implanted in the brains of freely moving rats and the NO levels continuously recorded while the animals were exposed to paraquat (PQ) injections of various amounts and frequencies. Long-term, real-time measurement of NO in a cohort of animals showed systematic switching in levels when PQ injections of sufficient size and frequency were administered. The experimental observations of changes in NO imply a corresponding switching in endogenous ROS levels and support theoretical predictions of an irreversible change to damagingly high levels of endogenous ROS when PD risks are sufficiently large. Our current results only consider one form of PD risk, however, we are sufficiently confident in them to conclude that: (i) continuous long-term measurement of neurochemical dynamics provide a novel way to measure the temporal change and system dynamics which determine Parkinsonian damage, and (ii) the bistable feedback switching predicted by mathematical modelling seems to exist and that a deeper analysis of its characteristics would provide a way of understanding the pathogenic mechanisms that initiate Parkinsonian cell damage.

Gill Na+,K+-ATPase of Atlantic salmon smolts in freshwater is not a predictor of long-term growth in seawater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Gayle B.; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2012-01-01

Gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity is a widely used measure of osmoregulatory preparedness in salmonid smolts. The degree to which this measure may predict long term performance is uncertain. In order to assess the relationship of this enzyme to long term growth and ion homeostasis, a cohort of Atlantic salmon hatchery smolts was used in a controlled environment with no salinity perturbations. In May 2006, gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity from 940 individually PIT tagged, Penobscot River smolts (USFWS, Green Lake National Fish Hatchery, Maine, United States) was measured immediately prior to isothermal transfer from freshwater to 32 ppt seawater. From the observed range of activities, individuals were classified as having “low”, “middle”, or “high” enzyme activity levels. Individual size (fork length and mass) was recorded on days 0, 1, 3, and 14 and monthly for four months. Growth rates over four time periods were calculated for individual fish maintained until the end of the experiment. Gill Na+,K+-ATPase activities were also measured from a subset of sampled fish. All groups effectively osmoregulated as evidenced by minor perturbations in plasma osmolyte levels. Apart from initial weight loss on transfer, fish grew throughout the experiment, however, there were no differences (fish size, growth rate, and gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity in seawater) among groups with initially different gill Na+,K+-ATPase activities (prior to seawater entry). While gill Na+,K+-ATPase activity may be predictive of performance during the acute phase of acclimation (first few days), typical variation in this enzyme, expressed in freshwater at the peak of smolting, does not appear to be predictive of long-term growth in seawater.

Do medical complications impact long-term outcomes in prolonged disorders of consciousness?

PubMed

Estraneo, Anna; Loreto, Vincenzo; Masotta Psy, Orsola; Pascarella, Angelo; Trojano, Luigi

2018-05-25

to investigate medical complications (MC) occuring within 6 months post-injury in brain-injured patients with prolonged disorders of consciousness (DoC) and to evaluate impact of MC on mortality and long-term clinical outcomes. prospective observational cohort study. rehabilitation unit for acquired DoC. 194 patients with DoC (142 in vegetative state, 52 in minimally conscious state; traumatic etiology: 43, anoxic: 69, vascular: 82) consecutively admitted to a neurorehabilitation unit within 1-3 months after onset. not applicable. mortality and improvements in clinical diagnosis and functional disability level (assessed by Coma Recovery Scale-Revised and Disability Rating Scale) at 12, 24 and 36 months post-onset. within 6 months post-injury, more than 95% of patients (188/194) developed at least 1 MC and 73% of them (142) showed at least 1 severe MC. Respiratory and musculoskeletal-cutaneous MC were the most frequent, followed by endocrino-metabolic abnormalities. Follow-up, complete in 189/194 patients, showed that male sex and endocrine-metabolic MC were associated to higher risk for mortality at all timepoints. Older age, anoxic etiology, lower CRS-R total scores and diagnosis of vegetative state at study entry predicted no clinical and functional improvements at most timepoints, whereas epilepsy predicted no improvement in diagnosis at 24 months post-onset only. MC are very frequent in patients with DoC within at least 6 months after brain injury, regardless of clinical diagnosis, etiology and age. Endocrino-metabolic MC are independent predictors of mortality at all timepoints, whereas epilepsy predicted poor long-term outcome. Occurrence and severity of MC in patients with DoC call for long-term appropriate levels of care after the post-acute phase. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Rating long-term care facilities on pressure ulcer development: importance of case-mix adjustment.

PubMed

Berlowitz, D R; Ash, A S; Brandeis, G H; Brand, H K; Halpern, J L; Moskowitz, M A

1996-03-15

To determine the importance of case-mix adjustment in interpreting differences in rates of pressure ulcer development in Department of Veterans Affairs long- term care facilities. A sample assembled from the Patient Assessment File, a Veterans Affairs administrative database, was used to derive predictors of pressure ulcer development; the resulting model was validated in a separate sample. Facility-level rates of pressure ulcer development, both unadjusted and adjusted for case mix using the predictive model, were compared. Department of Veterans Affairs long-term care facilities. The derivation sample consisted of 31 150 intermediate medicine and nursing home residents who were initially free of pressure ulcers and were institutionalized between October 1991 and April 1993. The validation sample consisted of 17 946 residents institutionalized from April 1993 to October 1993. Development of a stage 2 or greater pressure ulcer. 11 factors predicted pressure ulcer development. Validated performance properties of the resulting model were good. Model-predicted rates of pressure ulcer development at individual long-term care facilities varied from 1.9% to 6.3%, and observed rates ranged from 0% to 10.9%. Case-mix-adjusted rates and ranks of facilities differed considerably from unadjusted ratings. For example, among five facilities that were identified as high outliers on the basis of unadjusted rates, two remained as outliers after adjustment for case mix. Long-term care facilities differ in case mix. Adjustments for case mix result in different judgments about facility performance and should be used when facility incidence rates are compared.

Blood and small intestine cell kinetics under radiation exposures: Mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, Olga

Biophysical models, which describe the dynamics of vital body systems (namely, hematopoiesis and small intestinal epithelium) in mammals exposed to acute and chronic radiation, are developed. These models, based on conventional biological theories, are realized as the systems of nonlinear differential equations. Their variables and constant parameters have real biological meaning, that provides successful identification and verification of the models in hand. The explanation of a number of radiobiological effects, including those of the low-level long-term exposures, is proposed proceeding from the modeling results. It is proved that the predictions the models agree with the respective experimental data at both qualitative and quantitative levels. All this testifies to the efficiency of employment of the developed models in investigation and prediction of radiation effects on the hematopoietic and small intestinal epithelium systems, that can be used for the radiation risk assessment in the long-term space missions such as lunar colony and Mars voyage.

A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory.

PubMed

Bao, Wei; Yue, Jun; Rao, Yulei

2017-01-01

The application of deep learning approaches to finance has received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers. This study presents a novel deep learning framework where wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) are combined for stock price forecasting. The SAEs for hierarchically extracted deep features is introduced into stock price forecasting for the first time. The deep learning framework comprises three stages. First, the stock price time series is decomposed by WT to eliminate noise. Second, SAEs is applied to generate deep high-level features for predicting the stock price. Third, high-level denoising features are fed into LSTM to forecast the next day's closing price. Six market indices and their corresponding index futures are chosen to examine the performance of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model outperforms other similar models in both predictive accuracy and profitability performance.

Beta-blockers influence the short-term and long-term prognostic information of natriuretic peptides and catecholamines in chronic heart failure independent from specific agents.

PubMed

Frankenstein, Lutz; Nelles, Manfred; Slavutsky, Maxim; Schellberg, Dieter; Doesch, Andreas; Katus, Hugo; Remppis, Andrew; Zugck, Christian

2007-10-01

In chronic heart failure (CHF), the physiologic effects of natriuretic peptides and catecholamines are interdependent. Furthermore, reports state an agent-dependent effect of individual beta-blockers on biomarkers. Data on the short-term and long-term predictive power comparing these biomarkers as well as accounting for the influence of beta-blocker treatment both on the marker or the resultant prognostic information are scarce. We included 513 consecutive patients with systolic CHF, measured atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), noradrenaline, and adrenaline, and monitored them for 90 +/- 25 months. Death or the combination of death and cardiac transplantation at 1 year, 5 years, and overall follow-up were considered end points. Compared with patients not taking beta-blockers, patients taking beta-blockers had significantly lower levels of catecholamines but not natriuretic peptides. Only for adrenaline was the amount of this effect related to the specific beta-blocker chosen. Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated superior prognostic accuracy for NTproBNP both at the 1- and 5-year follow-up compared with ANP, noradrenaline, and adrenaline. In multivariate analysis including established risk markers (New York Heart Association functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction, peak oxygen uptake, and 6-minute walk test), of all neurohumoral parameters, only NTproBNP remained an independent predictor for both end points. Long-term beta-blocker therapy is associated with decreased levels of plasma catecholamines but not natriuretic peptides. This effect is independent from the actual beta-blocker chosen for natriuretic peptides and noradrenaline. In multivariate analysis, both for short-term and long-term prediction of mortality or the combined end point of death and cardiac transplantation, only NTproBNP remained independent from established clinical risk markers.

Predicting isoproturon long-term mineralization from short-term experiment: Can this be a suitable approach?

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Dörfler, Ulrike; Jiang, Xin; Schroll, Reiner

2016-02-01

A worldwide used pesticide - isoproturon (IPU) - was selected to test whether short-term experiments can be used to predict long-term mineralization of IPU in soil. IPU-mineralization was measured for 39 and 265 days in four different agricultural soils with a low mineralization dynamic. Additionally, in one soil IPU dissipation, formation and dissipation of metabolites, formation of non-extractable residues (NER) and (14)C-microbial biomass from (14)C-IPU were monitored for 39 and 265 days. The data from short-term and long-term experiments were used for model fitting. The long-term dynamics of IPU mineralization were considerably overestimated by the short-term experiments in two soils with neutral pH, while in two other soils with low pH and lower mineralization, the long-term mineralization of IPU could be sufficiently predicted. Additional investigations in one of the soils with neutral pH showed that dissipation of IPU and metabolites could be correctly predicted by the short-term experiment. However, the formation of NER and (14)C-microbial biomass were remarkably overestimated by the short-term experiment. Further, it could be shown that the released NER and (14)C-microbial biomass were the main contributors of (14)CO2 formation at later incubation stages. Taken together, our results indicate that in soils with neutral pH short-term experiments were inadequate to predict the long-term mineralization of IPU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence from a rare case study for Hebbian-like changes in structural connectivity induced by long-term deep brain stimulation.

PubMed

van Hartevelt, Tim J; Cabral, Joana; Møller, Arne; FitzGerald, James J; Green, Alexander L; Aziz, Tipu Z; Deco, Gustavo; Kringelbach, Morten L

2015-01-01

It is unclear whether Hebbian-like learning occurs at the level of long-range white matter connections in humans, i.e., where measurable changes in structural connectivity (SC) are correlated with changes in functional connectivity. However, the behavioral changes observed after deep brain stimulation (DBS) suggest the existence of such Hebbian-like mechanisms occurring at the structural level with functional consequences. In this rare case study, we obtained the full network of white matter connections of one patient with Parkinson's disease (PD) before and after long-term DBS and combined it with a computational model of ongoing activity to investigate the effects of DBS-induced long-term structural changes. The results show that the long-term effects of DBS on resting-state functional connectivity is best obtained in the computational model by changing the structural weights from the subthalamic nucleus (STN) to the putamen and the thalamus in a Hebbian-like manner. Moreover, long-term DBS also significantly changed the SC towards normality in terms of model-based measures of segregation and integration of information processing, two key concepts of brain organization. This novel approach using computational models to model the effects of Hebbian-like changes in SC allowed us to causally identify the possible underlying neural mechanisms of long-term DBS using rare case study data. In time, this could help predict the efficacy of individual DBS targeting and identify novel DBS targets.

High levels of comorbidity and disability cancel out the dementia effect in predictions of long-term mortality after discharge in the very old.

PubMed

Zekry, Dina; Herrmann, François R; Graf, Christophe E; Giannelli, Sandra; Michel, Jean-Pierre; Gold, Gabriel; Krause, Karl-Heinz

2011-01-01

The relative weight of various etiologies of dementia as predictors of long-term mortality after other risk factors have been taken into account remains unclear. We investigated the 5-year mortality risk associated with dementia in elderly people after discharge from acute care, taking into account comorbid conditions and functionality. A prospective cohort study of 444 patients (mean age: 85 years; 74% female) discharged from the acute geriatric unit of Geneva University Hospitals. On admission, each subject underwent a standardized diagnostic evaluation: demographic variables, cognitive, comorbid medical conditions and functional assessment. Patients were followed yearly by the same team. Predictors of survival at 5 years were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. The univariate model showed that being older and male, and having vascular and severe dementia, comorbidity and functional disability, were predictive of shorter survival. However, in the full multivariate model adjusted for age and sex, the effect of dementia type or severity completely disappeared when all the variables were added. In multivariate analysis, the best predictor was higher comorbidity score, followed by functional status (R(2) = 23%). The identification of comorbidity and functional impairment effects as predictive factors for long-term mortality independent of cognitive status may increase the accuracy of long-term discharge planning. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Global life satisfaction predicts ambulatory affect, stress, and cortisol in daily life in working adults.

PubMed

Smyth, Joshua M; Zawadzki, Matthew J; Juth, Vanessa; Sciamanna, Christopher N

2017-04-01

Global life satisfaction has been linked with long-term health advantages, yet how life satisfaction impacts the trajectory of long-term health is unclear. This paper examines one such possible mechanism-that greater life satisfaction confers momentary benefits in daily life that accumulate over time. A community sample of working adults (n = 115) completed a measure of life satisfaction and then three subsequent days of ecological momentary assessment surveys (6 times/day) measuring affect (i.e., emotional valence, arousal), and perceived stress, and also provided salivary cortisol samples. Multilevel models indicated that people with higher (vs. lower) levels of life satisfaction reported better momentary affect, less stress, marginally lower momentary levels and significantly altered diurnal slopes of cortisol. Findings suggest individuals with high global life satisfaction have advantageous daily experiences, providing initial evidence for potential mechanisms through which global life satisfaction may help explain long-term health benefits.

A proteinuria cut-off level of 0.7 g/day after 12 months of treatment best predicts long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis: data from the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial

PubMed Central

Tamirou, Farah; Lauwerys, Bernard R; Dall'Era, Maria; Mackay, Meggan; Rovin, Brad; Cervera, Ricard; Houssiau, Frédéric A

2015-01-01

Background Although an early decrease in proteinuria has been correlated with good long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis (LN), studies aimed at defining a cut-off proteinuria value are missing, except a recent analysis performed on patients randomised in the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial, demonstrating that a target value of 0.8 g/day at month 12 optimised sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of good renal outcome. The objective of the current work is to validate this target in another LN study, namely the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial (MNT). Methods Long-term (at least 7 years) renal function data were available for 90 patients randomised in the MNT. Receiver operating characteristic curves were built to test the performance of proteinuria measured within the 1st year as short-term predictor of long-term renal outcome. We calculated the positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV). Results After 12 months of treatment, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day best predicted good renal outcome, with a sensitivity and a specificity of 71% and 75%, respectively. The PPV was high (94%) but the NPV low (29%). Addition of the requirement of urine red blood cells ≤5/hpf as response criteria at month 12 reduced sensitivity from 71% to 41%. Conclusions In this cohort of mainly Caucasian patients suffering from a first episode of LN in most cases, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day at month 12 best predicts good outcome at 7 years and inclusion of haematuria in the set of criteria at month 12 undermines the sensitivity of early proteinuria decrease for the prediction of good outcome. The robustness of these conclusions stems from the very similar results obtained in two distinct LN cohorts. Trial registration number: NCT00204022. PMID:26629352

Associative learning versus fear habituation as predictors of long-term extinction retention.

PubMed

Brown, Lily A; LeBeau, Richard T; Chat, Ka Yi; Craske, Michelle G

2017-06-01

Violation of unconditioned stimulus (US) expectancy during extinction training may enhance associative learning and result in improved long-term extinction retention compared to within-session habituation. This experiment examines variation in US expectancy (i.e., expectancy violation) as a predictor of long-term extinction retention. It also examines within-session habituation of fear-potentiated startle (electromyography, EMG) and fear of conditioned stimuli (CS) throughout extinction training as predictors of extinction retention. Participants (n = 63) underwent fear conditioning, extinction and retention and provided continuous ratings of US expectancy and EMG, as well as CS fear ratings before and after each phase. Variation in US expectancy throughout extinction and habituation of EMG and fear was entered into a regression as predictors of retention and reinstatement of levels of expectancy and fear. Greater variation in US expectancy throughout extinction training was significantly predictive of enhanced extinction performance measured at retention test, although not after reinstatement test. Slope of EMG and CS fear during extinction did not predict retention of extinction. Within-session habituation of EMG and self-reported fear is not sufficient for long-term retention of extinction learning, and models emphasizing expectation violation may result in enhanced outcomes.

A new experimental method for the accelerated characterization of composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, H. F.; Morris, D. H.; Yeow, Y. T.

1978-01-01

A method which permits the prediction of long-term properties of graphite/epoxy laminates on the basis of short-term (15 min) laboratory tests is described. Demonstration of delayed viscoelastic fracture in one laminate configuration, and data on the time and temperature response of a matrix-dominated unidirectional laminate contributed to a characterization of the viscoelastic process in the graphite/epoxy composites. Master curves from short-term tests of certain laminate configurations can be employed to generate long-term master curves. In addition, analytical predictions from short-term results can be used to predict long-term (25-hour) laminate properties.

Anticipatory eye movements and long-term memory in early infancy.

PubMed

Wong-Kee-You, Audrey M B; Adler, Scott A

2016-11-01

Advances in our understanding of long-term memory in early infancy have been made possible by studies that have used the Rovee-Collier's mobile conjugate reinforcement paradigm and its variants. One function that has been attributed to long-term memory is the formation of expectations (Rovee-Collier & Hayne, 1987); consequently, a long-term memory representation should be established during expectation formation. To examine this prediction and potentially open the door on a new paradigm for exploring infants' long-term memory, using the Visual Expectation Paradigm (Haith, Hazan, & Goodman, 1988), 3-month-old infants were trained to form an expectation for predictable color and spatial information of picture events and emit anticipatory eye movements to those events. One day later, infants' anticipatory eye movements decreased in number relative to the end of training when the predictable colors were changed but not when the spatial location of the predictable color events was changed. These findings confirm that information encoded during expectation formation are stored in long-term memory, as hypothesized by Rovee-Collier and colleagues. Further, this research suggests that eye movements are potentially viable measures of long-term memory in infancy, providing confirmatory evidence for early mnemonic processes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

100 Myr record of sequences, sedimentary facies and sea level change from Ocean Drilling Program onshore coreholes, US Mid-Atlantic coastal plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Browning, J.V.; Miller, K.G.; Sugarman, P.J.; Kominz, M.A.; McLaughlin, P.P.; Kulpecz, A.A.; Feigenson, M.D.

2008-01-01

We analyzed the latest Early Cretaceous to Miocene sections (???110-7Ma) in 11 New Jersey and Delaware onshore coreholes (Ocean Drilling Program Legs 150X and 174AX). Fifteen to seventeen Late Cretaceous and 39-40 Cenozoic sequence boundaries were identified on the basis of physical and temporal breaks. Within-sequence changes follow predictable patterns with thin transgressive and thick regressive highstand systems tracts. The few lowstands encountered provide critical constraints on the range of sea-level fall. We estimated paleowater depths by integrating lithofacies and biofacies analyses and determined ages using integrated biostratigraphy and strontium isotopic stratigraphy. These datasets were backstripped to provide a sea-level estimate for the past ???100 Myr. Large river systems affected New Jersey during the Cretaceous and latest Oligocene-Miocene. Facies evolved through eight depositional phases controlled by changes in accommodation, long-term sea level, and sediment supply: (1) the Barremian-earliest Cenomanian consisted of anastomosing riverine environments associated with warm climates, high sediment supply, and high accommodation; (2) the Cenomanian-early Turonian was dominated by marine sediments with minor deltaic influence associated with long-term (107 year) sea-level rise; (3) the late Turonian through Coniacian was dominated by alluvial and delta plain systems associated with long-term sea-level fall; (4) the Santonian-Campanian consisted of marine deposition under the influence of a wave-dominated delta associated with a long-term sea-level rise and increased sediment supply; (5) Maastrichtian-Eocene deposition consisted primarily of starved siliciclastic, carbonate ramp shelf environments associated with very high long-term sea level and low sediment supply; (6) the late Eocene-Oligocene was a starved siliciclastic shelf associated with moderately high sea-level and low sediment supply; (7) late early-middle Miocene consisted of a prograding shelf under a strong wave-dominated deltaic influence associated with major increase in sediment supply and accommodation due to local sediment loading; and (8) over the past 10 Myr, low accommodation and eroded coastal systems were associated with low long-term sea level and low rates of sediment supply due to bypassing. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing.

Health, Lifestyle, Family and School Factors in Adolescence: Predicting Adult Educational Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huurre, Taina; Aro, Hillevi; Rahkonen, Ossi; Komulainen, Erkki

2006-01-01

Background: Education fundamentally shapes an individual's life chances and social status. Duration and level of education are associated with people's incomes, socio-economic status, living standard, lifestyle and the respect and esteem they enjoy. Failure to fulfil educational potential may have long-term consequences for later occupational and…

Self-reported immature defense style as a predictor of outcome in short-term and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Laaksonen, Maarit A; Sirkiä, Carlos; Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi

2014-07-01

Identification of pretreatment patient characteristics predictive of psychotherapy outcome could help to guide treatment choices. This study evaluates patients' initial level of immature defense style as a predictor of the outcome of short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 adult outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to individual short-term (psychodynamic or solution-focused) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy. Their defense style was assessed at baseline using the 88-item Defense Style Questionnaire and classified as low or high around the median value of the respective score. Both specific (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI], Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS], Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale [SCL-90-Anx], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale [HARS]) and global (Symptom Check List Global Severity Index [SCL-90-GSI], Global Assessment of Functioning Scale [GAF]) psychiatric symptoms were measured at baseline and 3-7 times during a 3-year follow-up. Patients with high use of immature defense style experienced greater symptom reduction in long-term than in short-term psychotherapy by the end of the 3-year follow-up (50% vs. 34%). Patients with low use of immature defense style experienced faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy during the first year of follow-up (34% vs. 19%). Knowledge of patients' initial level of immature defense style may potentially be utilized in tailoring treatments. Further research on defense styles as outcome predictors in psychotherapies of different types is needed.

Age-shifting in malaria incidence as a result of induced immunological deficit: a simulation study.

PubMed

Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Smith, Thomas A; Hodel, Eva Maria; Kay, Katherine; Penny, Melissa A

2015-07-25

Effective population-level interventions against Plasmodium falciparum malaria lead to age-shifts, delayed morbidity or rebounds in morbidity and mortality whenever they are deployed in ways that do not permanently interrupt transmission. When long-term intervention programmes target specific age-groups of human hosts, the age-specific morbidity rates ultimately adjust to new steady-states, but it is very difficult to study these rates and the temporal dynamics leading up to them empirically because the changes occur over very long time periods. This study investigates the age and magnitude of age- and time- shifting of incidence induced by either pre-erythrocytic vaccination (PEV) programmes or seasonal malaria chemo-prevention (SMC), using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics. The models made various assumptions about immunity decay, transmission heterogeneity and were parameterized with data on both age-specific infection and disease incidence at different levels of exposure, on the durations of different stages of the parasite life-cycle and on human demography. Effects of transmission intensity, and of levels of access to malaria treatment were considered. While both PEV and SMC programmes are predicted to have overall strongly positive health effects, a shift of morbidity into older children is predicted to be induced by either programme if transmission levels remain static and not reduced by other interventions. Predicted shifting of burden continue into the second decade of the programme. Even if long-term surveillance is maintained it will be difficult to avoid mis-attribution of such long-term changes in age-specific morbidity patterns to other factors. Conversely, short-lived transient changes in incidence measured soon after introduction of a new intervention may give over-positive views of future impacts. Complementary intervention strategies could be designed to specifically protect those age-groups at risk from burden shift.

Prediction of different ovarian responses using anti-Müllerian hormone following a long agonist treatment protocol for IVF.

PubMed

Heidar, Z; Bakhtiyari, M; Mirzamoradi, M; Zadehmodarres, S; Sarfjoo, F S; Mansournia, M A

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to predict the poor and excessive ovarian response using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels following a long agonist protocol in IVF candidates. Through a prospective cohort study, the type of relationship and appropriate scale for AMH were determined using the fractional polynomial regression. To determine the effect of AMH on the outcomes of ovarian stimulation and different ovarian responses, the multi-nominal and negative binomial regression models were fitted using backward stepwise method. The ovarian response of study subject who entered a standard long-term treatment cycle with GnRH agonist was evaluated using prediction model, separately and in combined models with (ROC) curves. The use of standard long-term treatments with GnRH agonist led to positive pregnancy test results in 30% of treated patients. With each unit increase in the log of AMH, the odds ratio of having poor response compared to normal response decreases by 64% (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19-0.68). Also the results of negative binomial regression model indicated that for one unit increase in the log of AMH blood levels, the odds of releasing an oocyte increased 24% (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.35). The optimal cut-off points of AMH for predicting excessive and poor ovarian responses were 3.4 and 1.2 ng/ml, respectively, with area under curves of 0.69 (0.60-0.77) and 0.76 (0.66-0.86), respectively. By considering the age of the patient undergoing infertility treatment as a variable affecting ovulation, use of AMH levels showed to be a good test to discriminate between different ovarian responses.

Predictive aging results for cable materials in nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

1990-11-01

In this report, we provide a detailed discussion of methodology of predicting cable degradation versus dose rate, temperature, and exposure time and its application to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicon rubber and two ethylenetetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7 to 9 years), low dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under nuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we findmore » indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following generic'' materials: hypalon, ethylenetetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such generic'' behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated. Finally, to aid utilities in their cable life extension decisions, we utilize our modelling results to generate lifetime prediction curves for the materials modelled to data. These curves plot expected material lifetime versus dose rate and temperature down to the levels of interest to nuclear power plant aging. 18 refs., 30 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Work-unit social capital and long-term sickness absence: a prospective cohort study of 32 053 hospital employees.

PubMed

Török, Eszter; Clark, Alice Jessie; Jensen, Johan Høy; Lange, Theis; Bonde, Jens Peter; Bjorner, Jakob Bue; Rugulies, Reiner; Hvidtfeldt, Ulla Arthur; Hansen, Åse Marie; Ersbøll, Annette Kjær; Rod, Naja Hulvej

2018-06-06

There is a lack of studies investigating social capital at the workplace level in small and relatively homogeneous work-units. The aim of the study was to investigate whether work-unit social capital predicts a lower risk of individual long-term sickness absence among Danish hospital employees followed prospectively for 1 year. This study is based on the Well-being in HospitAL Employees cohort. The study sample consisted of 32 053 individuals nested within 2182 work-units in the Capital Region of Denmark. Work-unit social capital was measured with an eight-item scale covering elements of trust, justice and collaboration between employees and leaders. Social capital at the work-unit level was computed as the aggregated mean of individual-level social capital within each work-unit. Data on long-term sickness absence were retrieved from the employers' payroll system and were operationalised as ≥29 consecutive days of sickness absence. We used a 12-point difference in social capital as the metric in our analyses and conducted two-level hierarchical logistic regression analysis. Adjustments were made for sex, age, seniority, occupational group and part-time work at the individual level, and work-unit size, the proportion of female employees and the proportion of part-time work at the work-unit level. The OR for long-term sickness absence associated with a 12-point higher work-unit social capital was 0.73 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.78). Further, we found an association between higher work-unit social capital and lower long-term sickness absence across quartiles of social capital: compared with the lowest quartile, the OR for long-term sickness absence in the highest quartile was 0.51 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.60). Our study provides support for work-unit social capital being a protective factor for individual long-term sickness absence among hospital employees in the Capital Region of Denmark. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Causal mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition: Deconstructing salinity and flooding impacts in coastal wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stagg, Camille L.; Schoolmaster, Donald; Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: 1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, 2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and 3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a drought or a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal wetlands. Here we identify three causal mechanisms that can reconcile disparities between long-term and short-term salinity impacts on organic matter decomposition.

Causal mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition: deconstructing salinity and flooding impacts in coastal wetlands.

PubMed

Stagg, Camille L; Schoolmaster, Donald R; Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H

2017-08-01

Coastal wetlands significantly contribute to global carbon storage potential. Sea-level rise and other climate-change-induced disturbances threaten coastal wetland sustainability and carbon storage capacity. It is critical that we understand the mechanisms controlling wetland carbon loss so that we can predict and manage these resources in anticipation of climate change. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms that control soil organic matter decomposition, in particular the impacts of elevated salinity, are limited, and literature reports are contradictory. In an attempt to improve our understanding of these complex processes, we measured root and rhizome decomposition and developed a causal model to identify and quantify the mechanisms that influence soil organic matter decomposition in coastal wetlands that are impacted by sea-level rise. We identified three causal pathways: (1) a direct pathway representing the effects of flooding on soil moisture, (2) a direct pathway representing the effects of salinity on decomposer microbial communities and soil biogeochemistry, and (3) an indirect pathway representing the effects of salinity on litter quality through changes in plant community composition over time. We used this model to test the effects of alternate scenarios on the response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands and oligohaline marshes to short- and long-term climate-induced disturbances of flooding and salinity. In tidal freshwater forested wetlands, the model predicted less decomposition in response to drought, hurricane salinity pulsing, and long-term sea-level rise. In contrast, in the oligohaline marsh, the model predicted no change in response to drought and sea-level rise, and increased decomposition following a hurricane salinity pulse. Our results show that it is critical to consider the temporal scale of disturbance and the magnitude of exposure when assessing the effects of salinity intrusion on carbon mineralization in coastal wetlands. Here, we identify three causal mechanisms that can reconcile disparities between long-term and short-term salinity impacts on organic matter decomposition. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dietary potassium intake and mortality in long-term hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Noori, Nazanin; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Murali, Sameer B; Bross, Rachelle; Nissenson, Allen R; Kopple, Joel D

2010-08-01

Hyperkalemia has been associated with higher mortality in long-term hemodialysis (HD) patients. There are few data concerning the relationship between dietary potassium intake and outcome. The mortality predictability of dietary potassium intake from reported food items estimated using the Block Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) at the start of the cohort was examined in a 5-year (2001-2006) cohort of 224 HD patients in Southern California using Cox proportional hazards regression. 224 long-term HD patients from 8 DaVita dialysis clinics. Dietary potassium intake ranking using the Block FFQ. 5-year survival. HD patients with higher potassium intake had greater dietary energy, protein, and phosphorus intakes and higher predialysis serum potassium and phosphorus levels. Greater dietary potassium intake was associated with significantly increased death HRs in unadjusted models and after incremental adjustments for case-mix, nutritional factors (including 3-month averaged predialysis serum creatinine, potassium, and phosphorus levels; body mass index; normalized protein nitrogen appearance; and energy, protein, and phosphorus intake) and inflammatory marker levels. HRs for death across the 3 higher quartiles of dietary potassium intake in the fully adjusted model (compared with the lowest quartile) were 1.4 (95% CI, 0.6-3.0), 2.2 (95% CI, 0.9-5.4), and 2.4 (95% CI, 1.1-7.5), respectively (P for trend = 0.03). Restricted cubic spline analyses confirmed the incremental mortality predictability of higher potassium intake. FFQs may underestimate individual potassium intake and should be used to rank dietary intake across the population. Higher dietary potassium intake is associated with increased death risk in long-term HD patients, even after adjustments for serum potassium level; dietary protein; energy, and phosphorus intake; and nutritional and inflammatory marker levels. The potential role of dietary potassium in the high mortality rate of HD patients warrants clinical trials. Copyright (c) 2010 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Children's Initial Sleep-Associated Changes in Motor Skill Are Unrelated to Long-Term Skill Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinke, Katharina; Wilhelm, Ines; Bayramoglu, Müge; Klein, Susanne; Born, Jan

2017-01-01

Sleep is considered to support the formation of skill memory. In juvenile but not adult song birds learning a tutor's song, a stronger initial deterioration of song performance over night-sleep predicts better song performance in the long run. This and similar observations have stimulated the view of sleep supporting skill formation during…

Childhood bullying involvement predicts low-grade systemic inflammation into adulthood

PubMed Central

Copeland, William E.; Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Suzet Tanya; Shanahan, Lilly; Worthman, Carol; Costello, E. Jane

2014-01-01

Bullying is a common childhood experience that involves repeated mistreatment to improve or maintain one’s status. Victims display long-term social, psychological, and health consequences, whereas bullies display minimal ill effects. The aim of this study is to test how this adverse social experience is biologically embedded to affect short- or long-term levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of low-grade systemic inflammation. The prospective population-based Great Smoky Mountains Study (n = 1,420), with up to nine waves of data per subject, was used, covering childhood/adolescence (ages 9–16) and young adulthood (ages 19 and 21). Structured interviews were used to assess bullying involvement and relevant covariates at all childhood/adolescent observations. Blood spots were collected at each observation and assayed for CRP levels. During childhood and adolescence, the number of waves at which the child was bullied predicted increasing levels of CRP. Although CRP levels rose for all participants from childhood into adulthood, being bullied predicted greater increases in CRP levels, whereas bullying others predicted lower increases in CRP compared with those uninvolved in bullying. This pattern was robust, controlling for body mass index, substance use, physical and mental health status, and exposures to other childhood psychosocial adversities. A child’s role in bullying may serve as either a risk or a protective factor for adult low-grade inflammation, independent of other factors. Inflammation is a physiological response that mediates the effects of both social adversity and dominance on decreases in health. PMID:24821813

Childhood bullying involvement predicts low-grade systemic inflammation into adulthood.

PubMed

Copeland, William E; Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Suzet Tanya; Shanahan, Lilly; Worthman, Carol; Costello, E Jane

2014-05-27

Bullying is a common childhood experience that involves repeated mistreatment to improve or maintain one's status. Victims display long-term social, psychological, and health consequences, whereas bullies display minimal ill effects. The aim of this study is to test how this adverse social experience is biologically embedded to affect short- or long-term levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of low-grade systemic inflammation. The prospective population-based Great Smoky Mountains Study (n = 1,420), with up to nine waves of data per subject, was used, covering childhood/adolescence (ages 9-16) and young adulthood (ages 19 and 21). Structured interviews were used to assess bullying involvement and relevant covariates at all childhood/adolescent observations. Blood spots were collected at each observation and assayed for CRP levels. During childhood and adolescence, the number of waves at which the child was bullied predicted increasing levels of CRP. Although CRP levels rose for all participants from childhood into adulthood, being bullied predicted greater increases in CRP levels, whereas bullying others predicted lower increases in CRP compared with those uninvolved in bullying. This pattern was robust, controlling for body mass index, substance use, physical and mental health status, and exposures to other childhood psychosocial adversities. A child's role in bullying may serve as either a risk or a protective factor for adult low-grade inflammation, independent of other factors. Inflammation is a physiological response that mediates the effects of both social adversity and dominance on decreases in health.

Hair cortisol concentrations correlate negatively with survival in a wild primate population.

PubMed

Rakotoniaina, Josué H; Kappeler, Peter M; Kaesler, Eva; Hämäläinen, Anni M; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Kraus, Cornelia

2017-09-01

Glucocorticoid hormones are known to play a key role in mediating a cascade of physiological responses to social and ecological stressors and can therefore influence animals' behaviour and ultimately fitness. Yet, how glucocorticoid levels are associated with reproductive success or survival in a natural setting has received little empirical attention so far. Here, we examined links between survival and levels of glucocorticoid in a small, short-lived primate, the grey mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus), using for the first time an indicator of long-term stress load (hair cortisol concentration). Using a capture-mark-recapture modelling approach, we assessed the effect of stress on survival in a broad context (semi-annual rates), but also under a specific period of high energetic demands during the reproductive season. We further assessed the power of other commonly used health indicators (body condition and parasitism) in predicting survival outcomes relative to the effect of long-term stress. We found that high levels of hair cortisol were associated with reduced survival probabilities both at the semi-annual scale and over the reproductive season. Additionally, very good body condition (measured as scaled mass index) was related to increased survival at the semi-annual scale, but not during the breeding season. In contrast, variation in parasitism failed to predict survival. Altogether, our results indicate that long-term increased glucocorticoid levels can be related to survival and hence population dynamics, and suggest differential strength of selection acting on glucocorticoids, body condition, and parasite infection.

A computational cognitive model of syntactic priming.

PubMed

Reitter, David; Keller, Frank; Moore, Johanna D

2011-01-01

The psycholinguistic literature has identified two syntactic adaptation effects in language production: rapidly decaying short-term priming and long-lasting adaptation. To explain both effects, we present an ACT-R model of syntactic priming based on a wide-coverage, lexicalized syntactic theory that explains priming as facilitation of lexical access. In this model, two well-established ACT-R mechanisms, base-level learning and spreading activation, account for long-term adaptation and short-term priming, respectively. Our model simulates incremental language production and in a series of modeling studies, we show that it accounts for (a) the inverse frequency interaction; (b) the absence of a decay in long-term priming; and (c) the cumulativity of long-term adaptation. The model also explains the lexical boost effect and the fact that it only applies to short-term priming. We also present corpus data that verify a prediction of the model, that is, that the lexical boost affects all lexical material, rather than just heads. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Using Serum α-Fetoprotein for Prognostic Prediction in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: What is the Most Optimal Cutoff?

PubMed Central

Hsu, Chia-Yang; Liu, Po-Hong; Lee, Yun-Hsuan; Hsia, Cheng-Yuan; Huang, Yi-Hsiang; Lin, Han-Chieh; Chiou, Yi-You; Lee, Fa-Yauh; Huo, Teh-Ia

2015-01-01

Background and Aims The prognostic ability of α-fetoprotein (AFP) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was examined by using different cutoff values. The optimal AFP cutoff level is still unclear. Methods A total of 2579 HCC patients were consecutively enrolled in Taiwan, where hepatitis B is the major etiology of chronic liver disease. Four frequently used AFP cutoff levels, 20, 200, 400, 1000 ng/mL, were investigated. One-to-one matched pairs between patients having AFP higher and lower than the cutoffs were selected by using the propensity model. The adjusted hazard ratios of survival difference were calculated with Cox proportional hazards model. Results Patients with a higher AFP level were associated with more severe cirrhosis, more frequent vascular invasion, higher tumor burden and poorer performance status (all p<0.0001). In the propensity model, 4 groups of paired patients were selected, and there was no difference found in the comparison of baseline characteristics (all p>0.05). Patients with AFP <20 ng/mL had significantly better long-term survival than patients with AFP ≧20 ng/mL (p<0.0001), and patients with AFP <400 ng/mL had significantly better overall outcome than patients with AFP ≧400 ng/mL (p = 0.0186). There was no difference of long-term survival between patients divided by AFP levels of 200 and 1000 ng/mL. The adjusted hazard ratios of AFP ≧20 ng/mL and AFP ≧400 ng/mL were 1.545 and 1.471 (95% confidence interval: 1.3–1.838 and 1.178–1.837), respectively. Conclusions This study shows the independently predictive ability of baseline serum AFP level in HCC patients. AFP levels of 20 and 400 ng/mL are considered feasible cutoffs to predict long-term outcome in unselected HCC patients. PMID:25738614

Intelligence as a predictor of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Knekt, Paul; Saari, Taru; Lindfors, Olavi

2014-12-30

Intelligence has been suggested as a suitability factor for short-term therapy whereas its possible effect on short-term versus long-term therapy still is unknown. The aim of this study was to compare the prediction of intelligence on the level of psychiatric symptoms and psychosocial functioning in psychotherapies of different lengths. A total of 251 outpatients from the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, aged 20–46 years, and suffering from mood or anxiety disorders were allocated to two long-term and two short-term therapies. Intelligence was assessed at baseline with the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-R). Psychiatric symptoms and psychosocial functioning were assessed 5–10 times during a 5-year follow-up using two primary symptom measures (HDRS and HARS) and one primary measure of psychosocial functioning (GAF). Short-term therapy was more effective than long-term therapy during the first year of follow-up. During the second to fourth follow-up year no differences between short- and long-term therapies or the intelligence groups were found. At the fifth follow-up year, however, long-term psychotherapy showed a statistically significantly larger change in all three primary measures compared to short-term therapy among those with higher intelligence. No differences between therapy groups were noted in those with lower intelligence. People with higher intelligence may benefit more from long-term than from short-term psychotherapy. These findings should be confirmed.

Long- and short-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality: using novel exposure models.

PubMed

Kloog, Itai; Ridgway, Bill; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A; Schwartz, Joel D

2013-07-01

Many studies have reported associations between ambient particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects, focused on either short-term (acute) or long-term (chronic) PM exposures. For chronic effects, the studied cohorts have rarely been representative of the population. We present a novel exposure model combining satellite aerosol optical depth and land-use data to investigate both the long- and short-term effects of PM2.5 exposures on population mortality in Massachusetts, United States, for the years 2000-2008. All deaths were geocoded. We performed two separate analyses: a time-series analysis (for short-term exposure) where counts in each geographic grid cell were regressed against cell-specific short-term PM2.5 exposure, temperature, socioeconomic data, lung cancer rates (as a surrogate for smoking), and a spline of time (to control for season and trends). In addition, for long-term exposure, we performed a relative incidence analysis using two long-term exposure metrics: regional 10 × 10 km PM2.5 predictions and local deviations from the cell average based on land use within 50 m of the residence. We tested whether these predicted the proportion of deaths from PM-related causes (cardiovascular and respiratory diseases). For short-term exposure, we found that for every 10-µg/m increase in PM 2.5 exposure there was a 2.8% increase in PM-related mortality (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.0-3.5). For the long-term exposure at the grid cell level, we found an odds ratio (OR) for every 10-µg/m increase in long-term PM2.5 exposure of 1.6 (CI = 1.5-1.8) for particle-related diseases. Local PM2.5 had an OR of 1.4 (CI = 1.3-1.5), which was independent of and additive to the grid cell effect. We have developed a novel PM2.5 exposure model based on remote sensing data to assess both short- and long-term human exposures. Our approach allows us to gain spatial resolution in acute effects and an assessment of long-term effects in the entire population rather than a selective sample from urban locations.

On the long-term stability of terrestrial reference frame solutions based on Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Benedikt; Gross, Richard S.; Abbondanza, Claudio; Chin, Toshio M.; Heflin, Michael B.; Parker, Jay W.; Wu, Xiaoping; Nilsson, Tobias; Glaser, Susanne; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Heinkelmann, Robert; Schuh, Harald

2018-06-01

The Global Geodetic Observing System requirement for the long-term stability of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame is 0.1 mm/year, motivated by rigorous sea level studies. Furthermore, high-quality station velocities are of great importance for the prediction of future station coordinates, which are fundamental for several geodetic applications. In this study, we investigate the performance of predictions from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) terrestrial reference frames (TRFs) based on Kalman filtering. The predictions are computed by extrapolating the deterministic part of the coordinate model. As observational data, we used over 4000 VLBI sessions between 1980 and the middle of 2016. In order to study the predictions, we computed VLBI TRF solutions only from the data until the end of 2013. The period of 2014 until 2016.5 was used to validate the predictions of the TRF solutions against the measured VLBI station coordinates. To assess the quality, we computed average WRMS values from the coordinate differences as well as from estimated Helmert transformation parameters, in particular, the scale. We found that the results significantly depend on the level of process noise used in the filter. While larger values of process noise allow the TRF station coordinates to more closely follow the input data (decrease in WRMS of about 45%), the TRF predictions exhibit larger deviations from the VLBI station coordinates after 2014 (WRMS increase of about 15%). On the other hand, lower levels of process noise improve the predictions, making them more similar to those of solutions without process noise. Furthermore, our investigations show that additionally estimating annual signals in the coordinates does not significantly impact the results. Finally, we computed TRF solutions mimicking a potential real-time TRF and found significant improvements over the other investigated solutions, all of which rely on extrapolating the coordinate model for their predictions, with WRMS reductions of almost 50%.

Influence and predictive capacity of climate anomalies on daily to decadal extremes in canopy photosynthesis.

PubMed

Desai, Ankur R

2014-02-01

Significant advances have been made over the past decades in capabilities to simulate diurnal and seasonal variation of leaf-level and canopy-scale photosynthesis in temperate and boreal forests. However, long-term prediction of future forest productivity in a changing climate may be more dependent on how climate and biological anomalies influence extremes in interannual to decadal variability of canopy ecosystem carbon exchanges. These exchanges can differ markedly from leaf level responses, especially owing to the prevalence of long lags in nutrient and water cycling. Until recently, multiple long-term (10+ year) high temporal frequency (daily) observations of canopy exchange were not available to reliably assess this claim. An analysis of one of the longest running North American eddy covariance flux towers reveals that single climate variables do not adequately explain carbon exchange anomalies beyond the seasonal timescale. Daily to weekly lagged anomalies of photosynthesis positively autocorrelate with daily photosynthesis. This effect suggests a negative feedback in photosynthetic response to climate extremes, such as anomalies in evapotranspiration and maximum temperature. Moisture stress in the prior season did inhibit photosynthesis, but mechanisms are difficult to assess. A complex interplay of integrated and lagged productivity and moisture-limiting factors indicate a critical role of seasonal thresholds that limit growing season length and peak productivity. These results lead toward a new conceptual framework for improving earth system models with long-term flux tower observations.

A model to predict disease progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): the ADPKD Outcomes Model.

PubMed

McEwan, Phil; Bennett Wilton, Hayley; Ong, Albert C M; Ørskov, Bjarne; Sandford, Richard; Scolari, Francesco; Cabrera, Maria-Cristina V; Walz, Gerd; O'Reilly, Karl; Robinson, Paul

2018-02-13

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading inheritable cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD); however, the natural course of disease progression is heterogeneous between patients. This study aimed to develop a natural history model of ADPKD that predicted progression rates and long-term outcomes in patients with differing baseline characteristics. The ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) was developed using available patient-level data from the placebo arm of the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and its Outcomes Study (TEMPO 3:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00428948). Multivariable regression equations estimating annual rates of ADPKD progression, in terms of total kidney volume (TKV) and estimated glomerular filtration rate, formed the basis of the lifetime patient-level simulation model. Outputs of the ADPKD-OM were compared against external data sources to validate model accuracy and generalisability to other ADPKD patient populations, then used to predict long-term outcomes in a cohort matched to the overall TEMPO 3:4 study population. A cohort with baseline patient characteristics consistent with TEMPO 3:4 was predicted to reach ESRD at a mean age of 52 years. Most patients (85%) were predicted to reach ESRD by the age of 65 years, with many progressing to ESRD earlier in life (18, 36 and 56% by the age of 45, 50 and 55 years, respectively). Consistent with previous research and clinical opinion, analyses supported the selection of baseline TKV as a prognostic factor for ADPKD progression, and demonstrated its value as a strong predictor of future ESRD risk. Validation exercises and illustrative analyses confirmed the ability of the ADPKD-OM to accurately predict disease progression towards ESRD across a range of clinically-relevant patient profiles. The ADPKD-OM represents a robust tool to predict natural disease progression and long-term outcomes in ADPKD patients, based on readily available and/or measurable clinical characteristics. In conjunction with clinical judgement, it has the potential to support decision-making in research and clinical practice.

Early post-transplant immune monitoring can predict long-term kidney graft survival: soluble CD30 levels, anti-HLA antibodies and IgA-anti-Fab autoantibodies.

PubMed

Amirzargar, Mohammad Ali; Amirzargar, Aliakbar; Basiri, Abbas; Hajilooi, Mehrdad; Roshanaei, Ghodratollah; Rajabi, Gholamreza; Mohammadiazar, Sina; Solgi, Ghasem

2014-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the predictive power of anti-HLA antibodies, sCD30 levels and IgA-anti-Fab autoantibody before and early after transplantation in relation to long-term kidney allograft survival. Pre- and post-transplant sera samples of 59 living-unrelated donor kidney recipients were tested for above risk factors by enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay. 15 out of 59 cases experienced rejection episodes (failure group). Pre- and post-transplant high sCD30 levels were significantly associated with graft failure (P=0.02 and P=0.004) and decreased 4 year graft survival (P = 0.009 and P = 0.001). Higher frequency of post-transplant HLA class-II antibody in the absence of class-I antibody was observed in failure group (P=0.007). Patients with post-transplant HLA class-I and class-II antibodies either alone or in combination showed significant lower 4 year graft survival. Recipients with high sCD30 levels in the presence of HLA class-I or class-II antibodies within 2 weeks post-transplant had poor graft survival (P = 0.004 and P = 0.002, respectively). High levels of post-transplant IgA-anti-Fab antibody was more frequent in functioning-graft patients (P = 0.00001), correlated with decreased serum creatinine levels (P = 0.01) and associated with improved graft survival (P = 0.008). Our findings indicate the deleterious effect of early post-transplant HLA antibodies and increased sCD30 levels dependently and protective effect of IgA-anti-Fab antibodies on long-term renal graft outcomes. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

PubMed

Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

2012-06-01

Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compensation seeking and disability after injury: the role of compensation-related stress and mental health.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Meaghan L; Grant, Genevieve; Alkemade, Nathan; Spittal, Matthew; Creamer, Mark; Silove, Derrick; McFarlane, Alexander; Bryant, Richard A; Forbes, David; Studdert, David M

2015-08-01

Claiming for compensation after injury is associated with poor health outcomes. This study examined the degree to which compensation-related stress predicts long-term disability and the mental health factors that contribute to this relationship. In a longitudinal, multisite cohort study, 332 injury patients (who claimed for compensation) recruited from April 2004 to February 2006 were assessed during hospitalization and at 3 and 72 months after injury. Posttraumatic stress, depression, and anxiety symptoms (using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview) were assessed at 3 months; compensation-related stress and disability levels (using the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II) were assessed at 72 months. A significant direct relationship was found between levels of compensation-related stress and levels of long-term disability (β = 0.35, P < .001). Three-month posttraumatic stress symptoms had a significant relationship with compensation-related stress (β = 0.29, P < .001) as did 3-month depression symptoms (β = 0.39, P < .001), but 3-month anxiety symptoms did not. A significant indirect relationship was found for posttraumatic stress symptoms and disability via compensation stress (β = 0.099, P = .001) and for depression and disability via compensation stress (β = 0.136, P < .001). Stress associated with seeking compensation is significantly related to long-term disability. Posttraumatic stress and depression symptoms increase the perception of stress associated with the claims process, which in turn is related to higher levels of long-term disability. Early interventions targeting those at risk for compensation-related stress may decrease long-term costs for compensation schemes. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

PubMed

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-02-01

Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p < 0.0001). The estimated perioperative risk by each model was used to develop an algorithm to predict long-term death. The hazard ratios for death were 1.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.12) for European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term outcomes of brief, intensive CBT for specific phobias: The negative impact of ADHD symptoms.

PubMed

Halldorsdottir, Thorhildur; Ollendick, Thomas H

2016-05-01

The objectives were twofold: (a) examine long-term treatment effects in youth receiving 1-session treatment (OST) or educational support (EST) for a specific phobia (SP) and (b) examine the differential predictive and moderation effects of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms on immediate and long-term outcomes following the interventions. Eighty-three children (ages 6-15, 47% female, 89% White) with a SP were randomly assigned to receive OST or EST. Follow up assessments occurred at 1 week, 6 months, 1 year, and 4 years. Hierarchical linear growth modeling (HLGM) was used to explore the association of parent-reported ADHD symptoms, the 2 treatment conditions (i.e., OST vs. EST), and the trajectory of change in the severity of the SP from pretreatment to the 4-year follow-up. Age, conduct problems and learning problems were controlled for in all analyses. A greater immediate reduction in severity rating of the SP was observed in the OST compared to EST, whereas the trajectory of long-term outcomes was similar across conditions over time. Higher levels of ADHD symptoms predicted poor immediate and long-term treatment outcomes across treatment conditions. ADHD symptoms, however, did not moderate the relationship between treatment condition and immediate or long-term treatment outcomes. The results of the study need to be interpreted in light of several study limitations. However, if confirmed, the findings suggest that anxious youth with comorbid ADHD symptoms are less likely to benefit from brief, intensive psychotherapy and may require either longer, standard CBT treatment or adjunctive pharmacotherapy. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

[Carboxyhemoglobin concentration in carbon monoxide poisoning. Critical appraisal of the predictive value].

PubMed

Köthe, L; Radke, J

2010-06-01

In cases of unclear depression of conciousness, arrhythmia and symptoms of cardiac insufficiency inadvertent carbon monoxide intoxication should always be taken into consideration. Rapid diagnosis of acute carbon monoxide intoxication with mostly unspecific symptoms requires an immediate supply of high dose oxygen which enables a distinct reduction of mortality and long-term morbidity. Levels of carboxyhemoglobin, however, should not be used as a parameter to decide whether to supply normobaric or the more efficient hyperbaric oxygen. There is no sufficient coherence between carboxyhemoglobin blood levels and clinical symptoms. Increased carboxyhemoglobin concentrations help to diagnose acute carbon monoxide intoxication but do not allow conclusions to be drawn about possible long-term neuropsychiatric or cardiac consequences.

Predictors of long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis trials: lessons learned from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis cohort.

PubMed

Dall'Era, Maria; Cisternas, Miriam G; Smilek, Dawn E; Straub, Laura; Houssiau, Frédéric A; Cervera, Ricard; Rovin, Brad H; Mackay, Meggan

2015-05-01

There is a need to determine which response measures in lupus nephritis trials are most predictive of good long-term renal function. We used data from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial to evaluate the performance of proteinuria, serum creatinine (Cr), and urinary red blood cells (RBCs) as predictors of good long-term renal outcome. Patients from the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial with proteinuria, serum Cr, and urinary RBC measurements at 3, 6, or 12 months and with a minimum of 7 years of followup were included (n = 76). We assessed the ability of these clinical biomarkers at 3, 6, and 12 months after randomization to predict good long-term renal outcome (defined as a serum Cr value ≤1.0 mg/dl) at 7 years. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to assess parameter performance at these time points and to select the best cutoff for individual parameters. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for the parameters alone and in combination. A proteinuria value of <0.8 gm/day at 12 months after randomization was the single best predictor of good long-term renal function (sensitivity 81% and specificity 78%). The addition of serum Cr to proteinuria as a composite predictor did not improve the performance of the outcome measure; addition of urinary RBCs as a predictor significantly decreased the sensitivity to 47%. This study demonstrates that the level of proteinuria at 12 months is the individual best predictor of long-term renal outcome in patients with lupus nephritis. Inclusion of urinary RBCs as part of a composite outcome measure actually undermined the predictive value of the trial data. We therefore suggest that urinary RBCs should not be included as a component of clinical trial response criteria in lupus nephritis. © 2015, American College of Rheumatology.

Early Postimplant Speech Perception and Language Skills Predict Long-Term Language and Neurocognitive Outcomes Following Pediatric Cochlear Implantation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunter, Cynthia R.; Kronenberger, William G.; Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B.

2017-01-01

Purpose: We sought to determine whether speech perception and language skills measured early after cochlear implantation in children who are deaf, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language skills, predict long-term speech perception, language, and neurocognitive outcomes. Method: Thirty-six long-term users of cochlear…

A new model integrating short- and long-term aging of copper added to soils

PubMed Central

Zeng, Saiqi; Li, Jumei; Wei, Dongpu

2017-01-01

Aging refers to the processes by which the bioavailability/toxicity, isotopic exchangeability, and extractability of metals added to soils decline overtime. We studied the characteristics of the aging process in copper (Cu) added to soils and the factors that affect this process. Then we developed a semi-mechanistic model to predict the lability of Cu during the aging process with descriptions of the diffusion process using complementary error function. In the previous studies, two semi-mechanistic models to separately predict short-term and long-term aging of Cu added to soils were developed with individual descriptions of the diffusion process. In the short-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the square root of incubation time (t1/2), and in the long-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the natural logarithm of incubation time (lnt). Both models could predict short-term or long-term aging processes separately, but could not predict the short- and long-term aging processes by one model. By analyzing and combining the two models, we found that the short- and long-term behaviors of the diffusion process could be described adequately using the complementary error function. The effect of temperature on the diffusion process was obtained in this model as well. The model can predict the aging process continuously based on four factors—soil pH, incubation time, soil organic matter content and temperature. PMID:28820888

Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

PubMed

van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

2015-05-01

We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and an overestimation of the predictive value. A methodological approach of related issues is provided in the works of Glymour et al (5) and Hamilton et al (6). This phenomenon is even more clearly illustrated by the predictive properties of the workability index, as described by Alavinia et al (7, page 328), which reported that "when adjusted for individual characteristics, lifestyle factors, and work characteristics, two dimensions of the WAI were significant predictors for both moderate and long durations of sickness absence: (i) the presence of sickness absence in the past 12 months prior to the medical examination and (ii) experienced limitations due to health problems." So, when applied to the study by Schouten et al (1), this means that most of the predictive value would be related to the factors "sickness absence in the past 12 months". In addition, we object to the use of the term "screening" in the Schouten et al study as it includes workers with the intended outcome (long-term sickness absence). One can identify three separate aims to study the longitudinal association between risk factors and subsequent long-term sickness absence: (i) to establish causal risk factors for long-term sickness absence, often to find clues for primary preventive strategies (beyond the scope here); (ii) to identify high-risk workers who are still at work and might benefit from an intervention before sickness absence occurs (secondary prevention); and (iii) to identify workers on sick leave who might suffer a below-average return-to-work rate or have a high risk for the recurrence of (long-term) sickness absence and might benefit from intensification or optimization of the return-to-work process (tertiary prevention). In this light, one needs to separate screening instruments from predictive instruments and reserve the term "screening" for the situation as defined by Wilson and Junger (8, page 7): "The object of screening for disease is to discover those among the apparently well who are in fact suffering from disease" (ie, situations of secondary prevention). This means that, when applying this definition on long-term sickness absence under the precondition that the individuals are still at work, screening enables the identification of high-risk individuals in the early "stages" of a "disease" that can progress into long-term sickness absence. In the case of the Schouten et al study, the population at risk, as derived from their predictive instrument, consists of workers with and without sickness absence, and as such excludes the use of the term "screening" in this case. To conclude, we have substantiated that, in addition to correct usage of the term "screening", careful selection of the study population, predictors and most importantly the aim of the predictive model are essential in the process of developing predictive instruments aimed at identifying workers at high risk of long-term sickness absence. Two fundamentally different approaches are possible. One approach aims at identifying workers on sick leave with either a below-average chance to return to work an/or a high risk for a successive episode of long-term sickness absence. From a methodological and practical point of view, such an instrument should be developed and validated among workers already on sick leave. A second approach aims at identifying workers who are still at work but at high risk for future long-term sickness absence. To develop and validate such an instrument, a study sample where workers already on sick leave are excluded is a prerequisite. Such instruments fit in a pro-active approach of preventing future sickness absence, where an early intervention can be offered to those workers with an increased risk for future sickness absence.

Long-Term Impact of Parental Well-Being on Adult Outcomes and Dementia Status in Individuals with Down Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esbensen, Anna J.; Mailick, Marsha R.; Silverman, Wayne

2013-01-01

Parental characteristics were significant predictors of health, functional abilities, and behavior problems in adults with Down syndrome ("n" ?=? 75) over a 22-year time span, controlling for initial levels and earlier changes in these outcomes. Lower levels of behavior problems were predicted by improvements in maternal depressive…

Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostoff, J. L.; Ward, D. T.; Cuevas, O. O.; Beckman, R. M.

1995-01-01

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

Plasticity in leaf-level water relations of tropical rainforest trees in response to experimental drought.

PubMed

Binks, Oliver; Meir, Patrick; Rowland, Lucy; da Costa, Antonio Carlos Lola; Vasconcelos, Steel Silva; de Oliveira, Alex Antonio Ribeiro; Ferreira, Leandro; Christoffersen, Bradley; Nardini, Andrea; Mencuccini, Maurizio

2016-07-01

The tropics are predicted to become warmer and drier, and understanding the sensitivity of tree species to drought is important for characterizing the risk to forests of climate change. This study makes use of a long-term drought experiment in the Amazon rainforest to evaluate the role of leaf-level water relations, leaf anatomy and their plasticity in response to drought in six tree genera. The variables (osmotic potential at full turgor, turgor loss point, capacitance, elastic modulus, relative water content and saturated water content) were compared between seasons and between plots (control and through-fall exclusion) enabling a comparison between short- and long-term plasticity in traits. Leaf anatomical traits were correlated with water relation parameters to determine whether water relations differed among tissues. The key findings were: osmotic adjustment occurred in response to the long-term drought treatment; species resistant to drought stress showed less osmotic adjustment than drought-sensitive species; and water relation traits were correlated with tissue properties, especially the thickness of the abaxial epidermis and the spongy mesophyll. These findings demonstrate that cell-level water relation traits can acclimate to long-term water stress, and highlight the limitations of extrapolating the results of short-term studies to temporal scales associated with climate change. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core Concrete Interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W

Lower head failure and corium concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 ex-vessel prediction: Core melt spreading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.; Francis, M. W.

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis has been carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially-dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. Lastly, this information was then used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH that is reported in a companion paper.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 ex-vessel prediction: Core melt spreading

DOE PAGES

Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.; Francis, M. W.

2016-10-31

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis has been carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially-dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. Lastly, this information was then used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH that is reported in a companion paper.« less

Dilatancy Criteria for Salt Cavern Design: A Comparison Between Stress- and Strain-Based Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labaune, P.; Rouabhi, A.; Tijani, M.; Blanco-Martín, L.; You, T.

2018-02-01

This paper presents a new approach for salt cavern design, based on the use of the onset of dilatancy as a design threshold. In the proposed approach, a rheological model that includes dilatancy at the constitutive level is developed, and a strain-based dilatancy criterion is defined. As compared to classical design methods that consist in simulating cavern behavior through creep laws (fitted on long-term tests) and then using a criterion (derived from short-terms tests or experience) to determine the stability of the excavation, the proposed approach is consistent both with short- and long-term conditions. The new strain-based dilatancy criterion is compared to a stress-based dilatancy criterion through numerical simulations of salt caverns under cyclic loading conditions. The dilatancy zones predicted by the strain-based criterion are larger than the ones predicted by the stress-based criteria, which is conservative yet constructive for design purposes.

Applying the concept of ecohydrological equilibrium to predict steady-state leaf area index for Australian ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Medlyn, B.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Duursma, R.

2017-12-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable in modelling terrestrial vegetation, because it has a major impact on carbon, water and energy fluxes. However, LAI is difficult to predict: several recent intercomparisons have shown that modelled LAI differs significantly among models, and between models and satellite-derived estimates. Empirical studies show that long-term mean LAI is strongly related to mean annual precipitation. This observation is predicted by the theory of ecohydrological equilibrium, which provides a promising alternative means to predict steady-state LAI. We implemented this theory in a simple optimisation model. We hypothesized that, when water availability is limited, plants should adjust long-term LAI and stomatal behavior (g1) to maximize net canopy carbon export, under the constraint that canopy transpiration is a fixed fraction of total precipitation. We evaluated the predicted LAI (Lopt) for Australia against ground-based observations of LAI at 135 sites, and continental-scale satellite-derived estimates. For the site-level data, the RMSE of predicted Lopt was 0.14 m2 m-2, which was similar to the RMSE of a comparison of the data against nine-year mean satellite-derived LAI at those sites. Continentally, Lopt had a R2 of over 70% when compared to satellite-derived LAI, which is comparable to the R2 obtained when different satellite products are compared against each other. The predicted response of Lopt to the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last 30 years also agreed with the estimate based on satellite-derivatives. Our results indicate that long-term equilibrium LAI can be successfully predicted from a simple application of ecohydrological theory. We suggest that this theory could be usefully incorporated into terrestrial vegetation models to improve their predictions of LAI.

Prostate cancer-related anxiety in long-term survivors after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Meissner, Valentin H; Herkommer, Kathleen; Marten-Mittag, Birgitt; Gschwend, Jürgen E; Dinkel, Andreas

2017-12-01

Knowledge of the psychological distress of long- and very long-term (>10 years) prostate cancer (PC) survivors is limited. This study intended to examine the parameters influencing anxiety related to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and PC in long-term survivors after radical prostatectomy. We surveyed 4719 PC survivors from the German multicenter prospective database "Familial Prostate Cancer." We evaluated the association of PC-related anxiety (MAX-PC) with sociodemographic characteristics, family history of PC, global health status/quality of life (EORTC QLQ-C30), depression and anxiety (PHQ-2; GAD-2), latest PSA level, time since radical prostatectomy, and current therapy. The survey participants' mean age was 75.2 years (SD = 6.5). Median follow-up was 11.5 years, and 19.5% of participants had survived more than 15 years since the initial treatment. The final regression analysis found that younger age, lower global health status/quality of life, higher depression and anxiety scores, higher latest PSA level, and shorter time since radical prostatectomy predicted increased PSA-related anxiety and PC anxiety. Familial PC was predictive only of PSA anxiety (all p < 0.05). The final model explained 12% of the variance for PSA anxiety and 24% for PC anxiety. PC-related anxiety remained relevant many years after prostatectomy and was influenced by younger age, psychological status, rising PSA level, and shorter time since initial treatment. Survivors with these characteristics are at increased risk of PC-related anxieties, which should be considered by the treating physician during follow-up.

Modelling seagrass growth and development to evaluate transplanting strategies for restoration.

PubMed

Renton, Michael; Airey, Michael; Cambridge, Marion L; Kendrick, Gary A

2011-10-01

Seagrasses are important marine plants that are under threat globally. Restoration by transplanting vegetative fragments or seedlings into areas where seagrasses have been lost is possible, but long-term trial data are limited. The goal of this study is to use available short-term data to predict long-term outcomes of transplanting seagrass. A functional-structural plant model of seagrass growth that integrates data collected from short-term trials and experiments is presented. The model was parameterized for the species Posidonia australis, a limited validation of the model against independent data and a sensitivity analysis were conducted and the model was used to conduct a preliminary evaluation of different transplanting strategies. The limited validation was successful, and reasonable long-term outcomes could be predicted, based only on short-term data. This approach for modelling seagrass growth and development enables long-term predictions of the outcomes to be made from different strategies for transplanting seagrass, even when empirical long-term data are difficult or impossible to collect. More validation is required to improve confidence in the model's predictions, and inclusion of more mechanism will extend the model's usefulness. Marine restoration represents a novel application of functional-structural plant modelling.

Self-reported immature defense style as a predictor of outcome in short-term and long-term psychotherapy

PubMed Central

Laaksonen, Maarit A; Sirkiä, Carlos; Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi

2014-01-01

Objective Identification of pretreatment patient characteristics predictive of psychotherapy outcome could help to guide treatment choices. This study evaluates patients' initial level of immature defense style as a predictor of the outcome of short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. Method In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 adult outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to individual short-term (psychodynamic or solution-focused) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy. Their defense style was assessed at baseline using the 88-item Defense Style Questionnaire and classified as low or high around the median value of the respective score. Both specific (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI], Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS], Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale [SCL-90-Anx], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale [HARS]) and global (Symptom Check List Global Severity Index [SCL-90-GSI], Global Assessment of Functioning Scale [GAF]) psychiatric symptoms were measured at baseline and 3–7 times during a 3-year follow-up. Results Patients with high use of immature defense style experienced greater symptom reduction in long-term than in short-term psychotherapy by the end of the 3-year follow-up (50% vs. 34%). Patients with low use of immature defense style experienced faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy during the first year of follow-up (34% vs. 19%). Conclusion Knowledge of patients' initial level of immature defense style may potentially be utilized in tailoring treatments. Further research on defense styles as outcome predictors in psychotherapies of different types is needed. PMID:25161816

Individual and population-level responses to ocean acidification.

PubMed

Harvey, Ben P; McKeown, Niall J; Rastrick, Samuel P S; Bertolini, Camilla; Foggo, Andy; Graham, Helen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Milazzo, Marco; Shaw, Paul W; Small, Daniel P; Moore, Pippa J

2016-01-29

Ocean acidification is predicted to have detrimental effects on many marine organisms and ecological processes. Despite growing evidence for direct impacts on specific species, few studies have simultaneously considered the effects of ocean acidification on individuals (e.g. consequences for energy budgets and resource partitioning) and population level demographic processes. Here we show that ocean acidification increases energetic demands on gastropods resulting in altered energy allocation, i.e. reduced shell size but increased body mass. When scaled up to the population level, long-term exposure to ocean acidification altered population demography, with evidence of a reduction in the proportion of females in the population and genetic signatures of increased variance in reproductive success among individuals. Such increased variance enhances levels of short-term genetic drift which is predicted to inhibit adaptation. Our study indicates that even against a background of high gene flow, ocean acidification is driving individual- and population-level changes that will impact eco-evolutionary trajectories.

Self-concept and quality of object relations as predictors of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

PubMed

Lindfors, Olavi; Knekt, Paul; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa

2014-01-01

Quality of object relations and self-concept reflect clinically relevant aspects of personality functioning, but their prediction as suitability factors for psychotherapies of different lengths has not been compared. This study compared their prediction on psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- and long-term psychotherapy. Altogether 326 patients, 20-46 years of age, with mood and/or anxiety disorder, were randomized to short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) psychotherapy and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. The Quality of Object Relations Scale (QORS) and the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (SASB) self-concept questionnaire were measured at baseline, and their prediction on outcome during the 3-year follow-up was assessed by the Symptom Check List Global Severity Index and the Anxiety Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory and by the Work Ability Index, Social Adjustment Scale work subscale and the Perceived Psychological Functioning scale. Negative self-concept strongly and self-controlling characteristics modestly predicted better 3-year outcomes in long-term therapy, after faster early gains in short-term therapy. Patients with a more positive or self-emancipating self-concept, or more mature object relations, experienced more extensive benefits after long-term psychotherapy. The importance of length vs. long-term therapy technique on the differences found is not known. Patients with mild to moderate personality pathology, indicated by poor self-concept, seem to benefit more from long-term than short-term psychotherapy, in reducing risk of depression. Long-term therapy may also be indicated for patients with relatively good psychological functioning. More research is needed on the relative importance of these characteristics in comparison with other patient-related factors. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predicting Long-Term Global Outcome after Traumatic Brain Injury: Development of a Practical Prognostic Tool Using the Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems National Database.

PubMed

Walker, William C; Stromberg, Katharine A; Marwitz, Jennifer H; Sima, Adam P; Agyemang, Amma A; Graham, Kristin M; Harrison-Felix, Cynthia; Hoffman, Jeanne M; Brown, Allen W; Kreutzer, Jeffrey S; Merchant, Randall

2018-05-16

For patients surviving serious traumatic brain injury (TBI), families and other stakeholders often desire information on long-term functional prognosis, but accurate and easy-to-use clinical tools are lacking. We aimed to build utilitarian decision trees from commonly collected clinical variables to predict Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) functional levels at 1, 2, and 5 years after moderate-to-severe closed TBI. Flexible classification tree statistical modeling was used on prospectively collected data from the TBI-Model Systems (TBIMS) inception cohort study. Enrollments occurred at 17 designated, or previously designated, TBIMS inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Analysis included all participants with nonpenetrating TBI injured between January 1997 and January 2017. Sample sizes were 10,125 (year-1), 8,821 (year-2), and 6,165 (year-5) after cross-sectional exclusions (death, vegetative state, insufficient post-injury time, and unavailable outcome). In our final models, post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) duration consistently dominated branching hierarchy and was the lone injury characteristic significantly contributing to GOS predictability. Lower-order variables that added predictability were age, pre-morbid education, productivity, and occupational category. Generally, patient outcomes improved with shorter PTA, younger age, greater pre-morbid productivity, and higher pre-morbid vocational or educational achievement. Across all prognostic groups, the best and worst good recovery rates were 65.7% and 10.9%, respectively, and the best and worst severe disability rates were 3.9% and 64.1%. Predictability in test data sets ranged from C-statistic of 0.691 (year-1; confidence interval [CI], 0.675, 0.711) to 0.731 (year-2; CI, 0.724, 0.738). In conclusion, we developed a clinically useful tool to provide prognostic information on long-term functional outcomes for adult survivors of moderate and severe closed TBI. Predictive accuracy for GOS level was demonstrated in an independent test sample. Length of PTA, a clinical marker of injury severity, was by far the most critical outcome determinant.

A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory

PubMed Central

Bao, Wei; Rao, Yulei

2017-01-01

The application of deep learning approaches to finance has received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers. This study presents a novel deep learning framework where wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) are combined for stock price forecasting. The SAEs for hierarchically extracted deep features is introduced into stock price forecasting for the first time. The deep learning framework comprises three stages. First, the stock price time series is decomposed by WT to eliminate noise. Second, SAEs is applied to generate deep high-level features for predicting the stock price. Third, high-level denoising features are fed into LSTM to forecast the next day’s closing price. Six market indices and their corresponding index futures are chosen to examine the performance of the proposed model. Results show that the proposed model outperforms other similar models in both predictive accuracy and profitability performance. PMID:28708865

Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Pinsky, Brett W; Lentine, Krista L; Ercole, Patrick R; Salvalaggio, Paolo R; Burroughs, Thomas E; Schnitzler, Mark A

2012-07-01

The ability to accurately predict a population's long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population's long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS) projections were calculated and compared with the population's actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1) fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A) and (2) uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B). Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted survival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%). Excellent predictability (41.3%) can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population's long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

PubMed

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2018-02-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

Fire feedbacks over geological time and the evolution of atmospheric oxygen concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, B.; Belcher, C.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

During the 4.5 billion year history of the Earth, the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere has risen from trace levels to today's 21%. Yet over the last 400 million years, O2 concentration appears to have remained within a relatively narrow range (around 15% - 30%), despite dramatic changes in the nature of global biogeochemical cycling. This stability has been crucial for continued animal evolution, and is thought to have arisen through feedbacks between oxygen, wildfire and plant productivity: the strong oxygen- dependence of fire initiation and spread means that global photosynthetic primary productivity is suppressed when oxygen levels are high, and enhanced when levels are low. We present biogeochemical modelling of the long term carbon and oxygen cycles, which aims to capture the operation of the wildfire feedback alongside other key processes. We find that wildfire can effectively stabilize long term oxygen concentrations, but that the nature of this feedback has changed as plant evolution has provided different fuels. Specifically, the evolution of early angiosperms during the Cretaceous period provided new understory fuels that more easily facilitated crown and canopy fires. Adding these dynamics to our model produces a more stable system over long timescales, and the model predicts that oxygen concentration has declined towards the present day - a prediction that is supported by other independent estimates.

An empirical approach to improving tidal predictions using recent real-time tide gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbert, Angela; Royston, Samantha; Horsburgh, Kevin J.; Leach, Harry

2014-05-01

Classical harmonic methods of tidal prediction are often problematic in estuarine environments due to the distortion of tidal fluctuations in shallow water, which results in a disparity between predicted and observed sea levels. This is of particular concern in the Bristol Channel, where the error associated with tidal predictions is potentially greater due to an unusually large tidal range of around 12m. As such predictions are fundamental to the short-term forecasting of High Water (HW) extremes, it is vital that alternative solutions are found. In a pilot study, using a year-long observational sea level record from the Port of Avonmouth in the Bristol Channel, the UK National Tidal and Sea Level Facility (NTSLF) tested the potential for reducing tidal prediction errors, using three alternatives to the Harmonic Method of tidal prediction. The three methods evaluated were (1) the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, (2) the Species Concordance technique and (3) a simple empirical procedure for correcting Harmonic Method High Water predictions based upon a few recent observations (referred to as the Empirical Correction Method). This latter method was then successfully applied to sea level records from an additional 42 of the 45 tide gauges that comprise the UK Tide Gauge Network. Consequently, it is to be incorporated into the operational systems of the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting Partnership in order to improve short-term sea level predictions for the UK and in particular, the accurate estimation of HW extremes.

The relation between parenting stress and adolescents' somatisation trajectories: a growth mixture analysis.

PubMed

Rousseau, Sofie; Grietens, Hans; Vanderfaeillie, Johan; Hoppenbrouwers, Karel; Desoete, Annemie; Van Leeuwen, Karla

2014-12-01

The impact of somatisation in adolescence is substantial. Knowledge on (predictors of) individual-level development of somatisation is necessary to develop tailored treatment. The current study assessed individual-level development of somatisation by means of latent mixed modelling. Parenting stress was included as a predictor of somatisation trajectory membership and within-trajectory variation. A total of 1499 adolescents and one of their parents (mostly the mother) agreed to participate. Questionnaires were administered when the adolescents were respectively 12-13 (T1), 13-14 (T2), and 14-15 (T3) years old. Adolescents reported on their somatisation, parents on their parenting stress. Four individual somatisation trajectories were found: increased, long-term low, long-term high, and decreased. Higher early parenting stress (T1) significantly predicted less favourable trajectory membership (increased and long-term high). The relation between later parenting stress (T2 and T3) and somatisation depended on trajectory membership. For adolescents in the long-term high and decreased somatisation trajectories, lower T2 and T3 parenting stress was related to higher somatisation, while for adolescents in the long-term low and increased trajectories, higher T2 and T3 parenting stress was related to higher somatisation. The results support a general recommendation to prevent the onset of high levels of parenting stress. In addition, for families in which high levels of parenting stress already exist, clinicians should be aware of natural fluctuations in parenting stress, its associated features (e.g., aspects of overall care, like looking for professional help) and of the consequences this might have for the adolescent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term dynamics of adaptive evolution in a globally important phytoplankton species to ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Schlüter, Lothar; Lohbeck, Kai T.; Gröger, Joachim P.; Riebesell, Ulf; Reusch, Thorsten B. H.

2016-01-01

Marine phytoplankton may adapt to ocean change, such as acidification or warming, because of their large population sizes and short generation times. Long-term adaptation to novel environments is a dynamic process, and phenotypic change can take place thousands of generations after exposure to novel conditions. We conducted a long-term evolution experiment (4 years = 2100 generations), starting with a single clone of the abundant and widespread coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi exposed to three different CO2 levels simulating ocean acidification (OA). Growth rates as a proxy for Darwinian fitness increased only moderately under both levels of OA [+3.4% and +4.8%, respectively, at 1100 and 2200 μatm partial pressure of CO2 (Pco2)] relative to control treatments (ambient CO2, 400 μatm). Long-term adaptation to OA was complex, and initial phenotypic responses of ecologically important traits were later reverted. The biogeochemically important trait of calcification, in particular, that had initially been restored within the first year of evolution was later reduced to levels lower than the performance of nonadapted populations under OA. Calcification was not constitutively lost but returned to control treatment levels when high CO2–adapted isolates were transferred back to present-day control CO2 conditions. Selection under elevated CO2 exacerbated a general decrease of cell sizes under long-term laboratory evolution. Our results show that phytoplankton may evolve complex phenotypic plasticity that can affect biogeochemically important traits, such as calcification. Adaptive evolution may play out over longer time scales (>1 year) in an unforeseen way under future ocean conditions that cannot be predicted from initial adaptation responses. PMID:27419227

Modeling framework for representing long-term effectiveness of best management practices in addressing hydrology and water quality problems: Framework development and demonstration using a Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yaoze; Engel, Bernard A.; Flanagan, Dennis C.; Gitau, Margaret W.; McMillan, Sara K.; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Singh, Shweta

2018-05-01

Best management practices (BMPs) are popular approaches used to improve hydrology and water quality. Uncertainties in BMP effectiveness over time may result in overestimating long-term efficiency in watershed planning strategies. To represent varying long-term BMP effectiveness in hydrologic/water quality models, a high level and forward-looking modeling framework was developed. The components in the framework consist of establishment period efficiency, starting efficiency, efficiency for each storm event, efficiency between maintenance, and efficiency over the life cycle. Combined, they represent long-term efficiency for a specific type of practice and specific environmental concern (runoff/pollutant). An approach for possible implementation of the framework was discussed. The long-term impacts of grass buffer strips (agricultural BMP) and bioretention systems (urban BMP) in reducing total phosphorus were simulated to demonstrate the framework. Data gaps were captured in estimating the long-term performance of the BMPs. A Bayesian method was used to match the simulated distribution of long-term BMP efficiencies with the observed distribution with the assumption that the observed data represented long-term BMP efficiencies. The simulated distribution matched the observed distribution well with only small total predictive uncertainties. With additional data, the same method can be used to further improve the simulation results. The modeling framework and results of this study, which can be adopted in hydrologic/water quality models to better represent long-term BMP effectiveness, can help improve decision support systems for creating long-term stormwater management strategies for watershed management projects.

An Integrated Approach to Assess Exposure and Health-Risk from Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a Fastener Manufacturing Industry

PubMed Central

Hsu, Hsin-I; Lin, Ming-Yeng; Chen, Yu-Cheng; Chen, Wang-Yi; Yoon, Chungsik; Chen, Mei-Ru; Tsai, Perng-Jy

2014-01-01

An integrated approach was developed to assess exposure and health-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) contained in oil mists in a fastener manufacturing industry. One previously developed model and one new model were adopted for predicting oil mist exposure concentrations emitted from metal work fluid (MWF) and PAHs contained in MWF by using the fastener production rate (Pr) and cumulative fastener production rate (CPr) as predictors, respectively. By applying the annual Pr and CPr records to the above two models, long-term workplace PAH exposure concentrations were predicted. In addition, true exposure data was also collected from the field. The predicted and measured concentrations respectively served as the prior and likelihood distributions in the Bayesian decision analysis (BDA), and the resultant posterior distributions were used to determine the long-term exposure and health-risks posed on workers. Results show that long term exposures to PAHs would result in a 3.1%, 96.7%, and 73.4% chance of exceeding the PEL-TWA (0.2 mg/m3), action level (0.1 mg/m3), and acceptable health risk (10−3), respectively. In conclusion, preventive measures should be taken immediately to reduce workers’ PAH exposures. PMID:25226413

Modelling seagrass growth and development to evaluate transplanting strategies for restoration

PubMed Central

Renton, Michael; Airey, Michael; Cambridge, Marion L.; Kendrick, Gary A.

2011-01-01

Background and Aims Seagrasses are important marine plants that are under threat globally. Restoration by transplanting vegetative fragments or seedlings into areas where seagrasses have been lost is possible, but long-term trial data are limited. The goal of this study is to use available short-term data to predict long-term outcomes of transplanting seagrass. Methods A functional–structural plant model of seagrass growth that integrates data collected from short-term trials and experiments is presented. The model was parameterized for the species Posidonia australis, a limited validation of the model against independent data and a sensitivity analysis were conducted and the model was used to conduct a preliminary evaluation of different transplanting strategies. Key Results The limited validation was successful, and reasonable long-term outcomes could be predicted, based only on short-term data. Conclusions This approach for modelling seagrass growth and development enables long-term predictions of the outcomes to be made from different strategies for transplanting seagrass, even when empirical long-term data are difficult or impossible to collect. More validation is required to improve confidence in the model's predictions, and inclusion of more mechanism will extend the model's usefulness. Marine restoration represents a novel application of functional–structural plant modelling. PMID:21821624

Cognitive Coping as a Mechanism of Change in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Fear of Flying: A Longitudinal Study With 3-Year Follow-Up.

PubMed

Busscher, Bert; Spinhoven, Philip

2017-09-01

To examine the predictive value of cognitive coping strategies at pretreatment and the value of changes in these strategies during cognitive-behavioral treatment for aviophobia for long-term therapy results. Data from baseline, after therapy at 2 months, short-term follow-up at 5 months, and long-term follow-up at 41 months were analyzed (N = 59). Participants were in a long-term process of change, which continued positively after therapy for maladaptive cognitive coping strategies. The use of cognitive coping strategies at baseline was not predictive of long-term outcome. However, a greater increase in the use of adaptive coping strategies, and more importantly, a greater decrease in the use of maladaptive coping strategies were predictive of improvements indicated in self-report of flight anxiety and actual flight behavior at long-term follow-up. Improvement of maladaptive cognitive coping strategies is possibly a key mechanism of change in cognitive-behavioral therapy for aviophobia. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The value of short-term pain relief in predicting the long-term outcome of 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injections.

PubMed

Joswig, Holger; Neff, Armin; Ruppert, Christina; Hildebrandt, Gerhard; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus

2018-05-01

The predictive value of short-term arm pain relief after 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injection (ESI) for the 1-month treatment response has been previously demonstrated. It remained to be answered whether the long-term response could be estimated by the early post-interventional pain course as well. Prospective observational study, following a cohort of n = 45 patients for a period of 24 months after 'indirect' ESI for radiculopathy secondary to a single-level cervical disk herniation (CDH). Arm and neck pain on the visual analog scale (VAS), health-related quality of life with the Short Form-12 (SF-12), and functional outcome with the Neck Pain and Disability (NPAD) Scale were assessed. Any additional invasive treatment after a single injection (second injection or surgery) defined treatment outcome as 'non-response'. At 24 months, n = 30 (66.7%) patients were responders and n = 15 (33.3%) were non-responders. Non-responders exited the follow-up at 1 month (n = 10), at 3 months (n = 4), and at 6 months (n = 1). No patients were injected again or operated on between the 6- and 24-month follow-up. Patients with favorable treatment response at 24 months had significantly lower VAS arm pain (p < 0.05) than non-responders at days 6, 8-11, and at the 3-month follow-up. The previously defined cut-off of > 50% short term pain reduction was not a reliable predictor of the 24-month responder status. SF-12 and NPAD scores were better among treatment responders in the long term. Patients who require a second injection or surgery after 'indirect' cervical ESI for a symptomatic CDH do so within the first 6 months. Short-term pain relief cannot reliably predict the long-term outcome.

Fasting triglycerides predict recurrent ischemic events in patients with acute coronary syndrome treated with statins.

PubMed

Schwartz, Gregory G; Abt, Markus; Bao, Weihang; DeMicco, David; Kallend, David; Miller, Michael; Mundl, Hardi; Olsson, Anders G

2015-06-02

Most patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are treated with statins, which reduce atherogenic triglyceride-rich lipoproteins. It is uncertain whether triglycerides predict risk after ACS on a background of statin treatment. This study examined the relationship of fasting triglyceride levels to outcomes after ACS in patients treated with statins. Long-term and short-term relationships of triglycerides to risk after ACS were examined in the dal-OUTCOMES trial and atorvastatin arm of the MIRACL (Myocardial Ischemia Reduction with Acute Cholesterol Lowering) trial, respectively. Analysis of dal-OUTCOMES included 15,817 patients (97% statin-treated) randomly assigned 4 to 12 weeks after ACS to treatment with dalcetrapib (a cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor) or placebo and followed for a median 31 months. Analysis of MIRACL included 1,501 patients treated with atorvastatin 80 mg daily beginning 1 to 4 days after ACS and followed for 16 weeks. Fasting triglycerides at initial random assignment were related to risk of coronary heart disease death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and unstable angina in models adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and body mass index. Fasting triglyceride levels were associated with both long-term and short-term risk after ACS. In dal-OUTCOMES, long-term risk increased across quintiles of baseline triglycerides (p<0.001). The hazard ratio in the highest/lowest quintile (>175/≤80 mg/dl) was 1.61 (95% confidence interval: 1.34 to 1.94). There was no interaction of triglycerides and treatment assignment on the primary outcome. In the atorvastatin group of MIRACL, short-term risk increased across tertiles of baseline triglycerides (p=0.03), with a hazard ratio of 1.50 [corrected] (95% confidence interval: 1.05 to 2.15) in highest/lowest tertiles (>195/≤135 mg/dl). The relationship of triglycerides to risk was independent of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in both studies. Among patients with ACS treated effectively with statins, fasting triglycerides predict long-term and short-term cardiovascular risk. Triglyceride-rich lipoproteins may be an important additional target for therapy. (A Study of RO4607381 in Stable Coronary Heart Disease Patients With Recent Acute Coronary Syndrome; NCT00658515). Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictable Unpredictability: the Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial Forecasting.

PubMed

Glied, Sherry; Zaylor, Abigail

2015-07-01

The authors assess how Medicare financing and projections of future costs have changed since 2000. They also assess the impact of legislative reforms on the sources and levels of financing and compare cost forecasts made at different times. Although the aging U.S. population and rising health care costs are expected to increase the share of gross domestic product devoted to Medicare, changes made in the program over the past decade have helped stabilize Medicare's financial outlook--even as benefits have been expanded. Long-term forecasting uncertainty should make policymakers and beneficiaries wary of dramatic changes to the program in the near term that are intended to alter its long-term forecast: the range of error associated with cost forecasts rises as the forecast window lengthens. Instead, policymakers should focus on the immediate policy window, taking steps to reduce the current burden of Medicare costs by containing spending today.

An exotic long-term pattern in stock price dynamics.

PubMed

Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

To accurately predict the movement of stock prices is always of both academic importance and practical value. So far, a lot of research has been reported to help understand the behavior of stock prices. However, some of the existing theories tend to render us the belief that the time series of stock prices are unpredictable on a long-term timescale. The question arises whether the long-term predictability exists in stock price dynamics. In this work, we analyze the price reversals in the US stock market and the Chinese stock market on the basis of a renormalization method. The price reversals are divided into two types: retracements (the downward trends after upward trends) and rebounds (the upward trends after downward trends), of which the intensities are described by dimensionless quantities, R(t) and R(b), respectively. We reveal that for both mature and emerging markets, the distribution of either retracements R(t) or rebounds R(b) shows two characteristic values, 0.335 and 0.665, both of which are robust over the long term. The methodology presented here provides a way to quantify the stock price reversals. Our findings strongly support the existence of the long-term predictability in stock price dynamics, and may offer a hint on how to predict the long-term movement of stock prices.

Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

PubMed

Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

2018-05-01

The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p < 0.001 for both; C-statistic = 0.815 for ASCERT and 0.781 for PROM). Prolonged ventilation, stroke, and hospital length of stay were also predictive of long-term death. The ASCERT survival probability calculator was externally validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of long-term prestress losses in pretensioned high performance concrete girders.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-01-01

Effective determination of long-term prestress losses is important in the design of prestressed concrete bridges. Over-predicting prestress losses results in an overly conservative design for service load stresses, and under-predicting prestress loss...

Data Mining in the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) Database Reveals a Potential Bias Regarding Liver Tumors in Rodents Irrespective of the Test Agent

PubMed Central

Ring, Matthias; Eskofier, Bjoern M.

2015-01-01

Long-term studies in rodents are the benchmark method to assess carcinogenicity of single substances, mixtures, and multi-compounds. In such a study, mice and rats are exposed to a test agent at different dose levels for a period of two years and the incidence of neoplastic lesions is observed. However, this two-year study is also expensive, time-consuming, and burdensome to the experimental animals. Consequently, various alternatives have been proposed in the literature to assess carcinogenicity on basis of short-term studies. In this paper, we investigated if effects on the rodents’ liver weight in short-term studies can be exploited to predict the incidence of liver tumors in long-term studies. A set of 138 paired short- and long-term studies was compiled from the database of the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP), more precisely, from (long-term) two-year carcinogenicity studies and their preceding (short-term) dose finding studies. In this set, data mining methods revealed patterns that can predict the incidence of liver tumors with accuracies of over 80%. However, the results simultaneously indicated a potential bias regarding liver tumors in two-year NTP studies. The incidence of liver tumors does not only depend on the test agent but also on other confounding factors in the study design, e.g., species, sex, type of substance. We recommend considering this bias if the hazard or risk of a test agent is assessed on basis of a NTP carcinogenicity study. PMID:25658102

Community response to blasting.

PubMed

Fidell, S; Horonjeff, R; Schultz, T; Teffeteller, S

1983-09-01

Annoyance due to chronic exposure to blast noise and vibration was assessed in residential areas near two surface mines and a quarry. It was found possible to base useful prediction of the prevalence of high annoyance on a metric of outdoor ground vibration related to high centiles of the long term distribution of exposure levels.

The Need for Long Term Care: Information and Issues. A Chartbook of the Federal Council on Aging.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Nostrand, Joan F.; And Others

Characteristics of the expected 55 million elderly Americans in the year 2050 can be predicted with some accuracy. The proportion of elderly blacks will increase, while the ratio of women to men will remain at three to one, with a higher ratio at the higher age levels. Educational levels will also rise significantly. Current information indicates…

Business Students' Choice of Short-Term or Long-Term Study Abroad Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzsimmons, Stacey R.; Flanagan, David J.; Wang, Xiaodan

2013-01-01

Recent years have seen a proliferation of short-term study abroad opportunities. Although they are both supplementing and replacing semester-long study abroad programs, research has focused primarily on semester (long-term) programs. We draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explore factors that predict why students choose long-term and…

Perceived stress and anhedonia predict short-and long-term weight change, respectively, in healthy adults.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Mostafa; Thearle, Marie S; Krakoff, Jonathan; Gluck, Marci E

2016-04-01

Perceived stress; emotional eating; anhedonia; depression and dietary restraint, hunger, and disinhibition have been studied as risk factors for obesity. However, the majority of studies have been cross-sectional and the directionality of these relationships remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess their impact on future weight change. Psychological predictors of weight change in short- (6month) and long-term (>1year) periods were studied in 65 lean and obese individuals in two cohorts. Subjects participated in studies of food intake and metabolism that did not include any type of medication or weight loss interventions. They completed psychological questionnaires at baseline and weight change was monitored at follow-up visits. At six months, perceived stress predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.23, P=0.02). There was a significant interaction (r(2)=.38, P=0.009) between perceived stress and positive emotional eating, such that higher scores in both predicted greater weight gain, while those with low stress but high emotional eating scores lost weight. For long-term, higher anhedonia scores predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.24, P=0.04). Depression moderated these effects such that higher scores in both predicted weight gain but higher depression and lower anhedonia scores predicted weight loss. There are different behavioral determinants for short- and long-term weight change. Targeting perceived stress may help with short-term weight loss while depression and anhedonia may be better targets for long-term weight regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of Noncancer Benchmark Doses in Short- and Long-Term Rodent Bioassays.

PubMed

Kratchman, Jessica; Wang, Bing; Fox, John; Gray, George

2018-05-01

This study investigated whether, in the absence of chronic noncancer toxicity data, short-term noncancer toxicity data can be used to predict chronic toxicity effect levels by focusing on the dose-response relationship instead of a critical effect. Data from National Toxicology Program (NTP) technical reports have been extracted and modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Benchmark Dose Software. Best-fit, minimum benchmark dose (BMD), and benchmark dose lower limits (BMDLs) have been modeled for all NTP pathologist identified significant nonneoplastic lesions, final mean body weight, and mean organ weight of 41 chemicals tested by NTP between 2000 and 2012. Models were then developed at the chemical level using orthogonal regression techniques to predict chronic (two years) noncancer health effect levels using the results of the short-term (three months) toxicity data. The findings indicate that short-term animal studies may reasonably provide a quantitative estimate of a chronic BMD or BMDL. This can allow for faster development of human health toxicity values for risk assessment for chemicals that lack chronic toxicity data. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Effects of long-term drainage on microbial community composition vary between peatland types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbanová, Zuzana; Barta, Jiri

2016-04-01

Peatlands represent an important reservoir of carbon, but their functioning can be threatened by water level drawdown caused by climate or land use change. Knowledge of how microbial communities respond to long-term drainage in different peatland types could help improve predictions of the effect of climate change on these ecosystems. We investigated the effect of long-term drainage on microbial community composition in bog, fen and spruce swamp forests (SSF) in the Sumava Mountains (Czech Republic), using high-throughput barcoded sequencing, in relation to peat biochemical properties. Longterm drainage had substantial effects, which depended strongly on peatland type, on peat biochemical properties and microbial community composition. The effect of drainage was most apparent on fen, followed by SSF, and lowest on bog. Long-term drainage led to lower pH, reduced peat decomposability and increased bulk density, which was reflected by reduced microbial activity. Bacterial diversity decreased and Acidobacteria became the dominant phylum on drained sites, reflecting a convergence in bacterial community composition across peatlands after long-term drainage. The archaeal communities changed very strongly and became similar across drained peatlands. Overall, the characteristic differences between distinct peatland types under natural conditions were diminished by long-term drainage. Bog represented a relatively resilient system while fen seemed to be very sensitive to environmental changes.

Combined predictive value of the expanded donor criteria for long-term graft survival of kidneys from donors after cardiac death: A single-center experience over three decades.

PubMed

Kusaka, Mamoru; Kubota, Yusuke; Sasaki, Hitomi; Fukami, Naohiko; Fujita, Tamio; Hirose, Yuichi; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Kenmochi, Takashi; Shiroki, Ryoichi; Hoshinaga, Kiyotaka

2016-04-01

Kidneys procured from the deceased hold great potential for expanding the donor pool. The aims of the present study were to investigate the post-transplant outcomes of renal allografts recovered from donors after cardiac death, to identify risk factors affecting the renal prognosis and to compare the long-term survival from donors after cardiac death according to the number of risk factors shown by expanded criteria donors. A total of 443 grafts recovered using an in situ regional cooling technique from 1983 to 2011 were assessed. To assess the combined predictive value of the significant expanded criteria donor risk criteria, the patients were divided into three groups: those with no expanded criteria donor risk factors (no risk), one expanded criteria donor risk factor (single-risk) and two or more expanded criteria donor risk factors (multiple-risk). Among the donor factors, age ≥50 years, hypertension, maximum serum creatinine level ≥1.5 mg/dL and a warm ischemia time ≥30 min were identified as independent predictors of long-term graft failure on multivariate analysis. Regarding the expanded criteria donors criteria for marginal donors, cerebrovascular disease, hypertension and maximum serum creatinine level ≥1.5 mg/dL were identified as significant predictors on univariate analysis. The single- and multiple-risk groups showed 2.01- and 2.40-fold higher risks of graft loss, respectively. Renal grafts recovered from donors after cardiac death donors have a good renal function with an excellent long-term graft survival. However, an increased number of expanded criteria donors risk factors increase the risk of graft loss. © 2016 The Japanese Urological Association.

Modeling the long-term persistence of hepatitis A antibody after a two-dose vaccination schedule in Argentinean children.

PubMed

López, Eduardo L; Contrini, María Marta; Mistchenko, Alicia; Kieffer, Alexia; Baggaley, Rebecca F; Di Tanna, Gian Luca; Desai, Kamal; Rasuli, Anvar; Armoni, Judith

2015-04-01

Long-term seroprotection data are essential for decision-making on the need and timing of vaccine boosters. Based on data from longitudinal serological studies, modeling can provide estimates on long-term antibody persistence and inform such decision-making. We examined long-term anti-hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV) antibody persistence in Argentinean children ≤15 years after the initial study where they completed a 2-dose course of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine (Avaxim 80U Pediatric, Sanofi Pasteur, Lyon, France). Blood serum samples were taken at baseline, 2 weeks (post first dose), 6 months (pre-booster), 6.5 months (post-booster), 10 years and 14-15 years after first vaccine dose. We fitted 8 statistical model types, predominantly mixed effects models, to anti-HAV persistence data, to identify the most appropriate and best fitting models for our data set and to predict individuals' anti-HAV levels and seroprotection rates up to 30 years post vaccination. Fifty-four children (mean age at enrollment 30.4 months) were enrolled up to 15 years post first vaccine dose. There were 3 distinct periods of antibody concentration: rapid rise up to peak concentration post-booster, rapid decay from post-booster to 10 years, followed by slower decay. A 3-segmented linear mixed effects model was the most appropriate for the data set. Extrapolating based on the available 14-15-year follow-up, the analysis predicted that 88% of individuals anti-HAV seronegative prior to vaccination would remain seroprotected at 30 years post vaccination and lifelong seroprotection for vaccinees seropositive prior to vaccination. Currently available data demonstrate that Avaxim 80U Pediatric confers to most vaccinees a high level of seroprotection against hepatitis A infection for at least 20-30 years.

Within-person reproducibility of red blood cell mercury over a 10- to 15-year period among women in the Nurses' Health Study II.

PubMed

Kioumourtzoglou, Marianthi-Anna; Roberts, Andrea L; Nielsen, Flemming; Tworoger, Shelley S; Grandjean, Philippe; Weisskopf, Marc G

2016-01-01

Most epidemiologic studies of methylmercury (MeHg) health effects rely on a single measurement of a MeHg biomarker to assess long-term exposures. Long-term reproducibility data are, therefore, needed to assess the reliability of a single measure to reflect long-term exposures. In this study, we assessed within-person reproducibility of red blood cell (RBC) mercury (Hg), a marker of methyl-mercury, over 10-15 years in a sample of 57 women. Fifty-seven women from the Nurses' Health Study II provided two blood samples 10-15-years apart (median: 12 years), which were analyzed for mercury levels in the red blood cells (B-Hg*). To characterize within-person reproducibility, we estimated correlation and intraclass correlation coefficients (r and ICC) across the two samples. Further, we compared different prediction models, including variables on fish and seafood consumption, for B-Hg* at the first sample, using leave-one-out cross-validation to assess predictive ability. Overall, we observed strong correlations over 10-15 years (r=0.69), as well as a high ICC (0.67; 95% CI: 0.49, 0.79). Fish and seafood consumption reported concurrently with the first B-Hg* sample accounted for 26.8% of the variability in that B-Hg*, giving a correlation of r=0.52. Despite decreasing B-Hg* levels over time, we observed strong correlations and high ICC estimates across B-Hg* measured 10-15 years apart, suggesting good relative within-person stability over time. Our results indicate that a single measurement of B-Hg* likely is adequate to represent long-term exposures.

Feasibility Study on the Satellite Rainfall Data for Prediction of Sediment- Related Disaster by the Japanese Prediction Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, Y.; Ishizuka, T.; Osanai, N.; Okazumi, T.

2014-12-01

In this study, the sediment-related disaster prediction method which based ground gauged rainfall-data, currently practiced in Japan was coupled with satellite rainfall data and applied to domestic large-scale sediment-related disasters. The study confirmed the feasibility of this integrated method. In Asia, large-scale sediment-related disasters which can sweep away an entire settlement occur frequently. Leyte Island suffered from a huge landslide in 2004, and Typhoon Molakot in 2009 caused huge landslides in Taiwan. In the event of these sediment-related disasters, immediate responses by central and local governments are crucial in crisis management. In general, there are not enough rainfall gauge stations in developing countries. Therefore national and local governments have little information to determine the risk level of water induced disasters in their service areas. In the Japanese methodology, a criterion is set by combining two indices: the short-term rainfall index and long-term rainfall index. The short-term rainfall index is defined as the 60-minute total rainfall; the long-term rainfall index as the soil-water index, which is an estimation of the retention status of fallen rainfall in soil. In July 2009, a high-density sediment related disaster, or a debris flow, occurred in Hofu City of Yamaguchi Prefecture, in the western region of Japan. This event was calculated by the Japanese standard methodology, and then analyzed for its feasibility. Hourly satellite based rainfall has underestimates compared with ground based rainfall data. Long-term index correlates with each other. Therefore, this study confirmed that it is possible to deliver information on the risk level of sediment-related disasters such as shallow landslides and debris flows. The prediction method tested in this study is expected to assist for timely emergency responses to rainfall-induced natural disasters in sparsely gauged areas. As the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Plan progresses, spatial resolution, time resolution and accuracy of rainfall data should be further improved and will be more effective in practical use.

Is Life better after motor cortex stimulation for pain control? Results at long-term and their prediction by preoperative rTMS.

PubMed

André-Obadia, Nathalie; Mertens, Patrick; Lelekov-Boissard, Taïssia; Afif, Afif; Magnin, Michel; Garcia-Larrea, Luis

2014-01-01

A positive effect of motor cortex stimulation (MCS) (defined as subjective estimations of pain relief ≥ 30%) has been reported in 55 - 64% of patients. Repetitive magnetic cortical stimulation (rTMS) is considered a predictor of MCS effect. These figures are, however, mostly based on subjective reports of pain intensity, and have not been confirmed in the long-term. This study assessed long-term pain relief (2 - 9 years) after epidural motor cortex stimulation and its pre-operative prediction by rTMS, using both intensity and Quality of Life (QoL) scales. Analysis of the long-term evolution of pain patients treated by epidural motor cortex stimulation, and predictive value of preoperative response to rTMS. University Neurological Hospital Pain Center. Twenty patients suffering chronic pharmaco-resistant neuropathic pain. All patients received first randomized sham vs. active 20 Hz-rTMS, before being submitted to MCS surgery. Postoperative pain relief was evaluated at 6 months and then up to 9 years post-MCS (average 6.1 ± 2.6 y) using (i) pain numerical rating scores (NRS); (ii) a combined assessment (CPA) including NRS, drug intake, and subjective quality of life; and (iii) a short questionnaire (HowRu) exploring discomfort, distress, disability, and dependence. Pain scores were significantly reduced by active (but not sham) rTMS and by subsequent MCS. Ten out of 20 patients kept a long-term benefit from MCS, both on raw pain scores and on CPA. The CPA results were strictly comparable when obtained by the surgeon or by a third-party on telephonic survey (r = 0.9). CPA scores following rTMS and long-term MCS were significantly associated (Fisher P = 0.02), with 90% positive predictive value and 67% negative predictive value of preoperative rTMS over long-term MCS results. On the HowRu questionnaire, long-term MCS-related improvement concerned "discomfort" (physical pain) and "dependence" (autonomy for daily activities), whereas "disability" (work, home, and leisure activities) and "distress" (anxiety, stress, depression) did not significantly improve. Limited cohort of patients with inhomogeneous pain etiology. Subjectivity of the reported items by the patient after a variable and long delay after surgery. Predictive evaluation based on a single rTMS session compared to chronic MCS. Half of the patients still retain a significant benefit after 2 - 9 years of continuous MCS, and this can be reasonably predicted by preoperative rTMS. Adding drug intake and QoL estimates to raw pain scores allows a more realistic assessment of long-term benefits and enhance the rTMS predictive value. The aims of this study and its design were approved by the local ethics committee (University Hospitals St Etienne and Lyon, France).

Predictors of short-term and long-term incontinence after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Shao, I-Hung; Chang, Ying-Hsu; Hou, Chun-Ming; Lin, Zheng-Feng; Wu, Chun-Te

2018-01-01

Purpose To determine retrospectively the prognostic factors for urinary incontinence following robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP). Methods Altogether, 180 patients with localized prostate cancer underwent RARP (same surgeon). Preoperative physical status, disease characteristics, laboratory findings, and surgical technique were recorded and the patients checked 1, 6, 12, and 24 months after RARP regarding their contribution to predicting post-prostatectomy urinary incontinence (PPI). Results Overall, 114 (63.3%) patients had PPI 1 month after RARP and 19 patients (16.0%) at 24 months. Univariate analysis showed that age was a significant factor for predicting PPI at 1 month. PPI predictors at 24 months were age, body mass index, preoperative serum albumin level, previous transurethral resection of the prostate, total operative time, and bladder neck sparing. Multivariate analysis indicated that age and total operative time were significant predictors. Conclusion Older age and longer operative time were highly relevant to short- and long-term PPI occurrence after RARP.

Displacement prediction of Baijiabao landslide based on empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory neural network in Three Gorges area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shiluo; Niu, Ruiqing

2018-02-01

Every year, landslides pose huge threats to thousands of people in China, especially those in the Three Gorges area. It is thus necessary to establish an early warning system to help prevent property damage and save peoples' lives. Most of the landslide displacement prediction models that have been proposed are static models. However, landslides are dynamic systems. In this paper, the total accumulative displacement of the Baijiabao landslide is divided into trend and periodic components using empirical mode decomposition. The trend component is predicted using an S-curve estimation, and the total periodic component is predicted using a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). LSTM is a dynamic model that can remember historical information and apply it to the current output. Six triggering factors are chosen to predict the periodic term using the Pearson cross-correlation coefficient and mutual information. These factors include the cumulative precipitation during the previous month, the cumulative precipitation during a two-month period, the reservoir level during the current month, the change in the reservoir level during the previous month, the cumulative increment of the reservoir level during the current month, and the cumulative displacement during the previous month. When using one-step-ahead prediction, LSTM yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) value of 6.112 mm, while the support vector machine for regression (SVR) and the back-propagation neural network (BP) yield values of 10.686 mm and 8.237 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the Elman network (Elman) yields an RMSE value of 6.579 mm. In addition, when using multi-step-ahead prediction, LSTM obtains an RMSE value of 8.648 mm, while SVR, BP and the Elman network obtains RSME values of 13.418 mm, 13.014 mm, and 13.370 mm. The predicted results indicate that, to some extent, the dynamic model (LSTM) achieves results that are more accurate than those of the static models (i.e., SVR and BP). LSTM even displays better performance than the Elman network, which is also a dynamic method.

A Comparative Study of Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Scores for Predicting Long-Term Outcome After Brain Injury.

PubMed

McNett, Molly M; Amato, Shelly; Philippbar, Sue Ann

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare predictive ability of hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and scores obtained using a novel coma scoring tool (the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness [FOUR] scale) on long-term outcomes among patients with traumatic brain injury. Preliminary research of the FOUR scale suggests that it is comparable with GCS for predicting mortality and functional outcome at hospital discharge. No research has investigated relationships between coma scores and outcome 12 months postinjury. This is a prospective cohort study. Data were gathered on adult patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to urban level I trauma center. GCS and FOUR scores were assigned at 24 and 72 hours and at hospital discharge. Glasgow Outcome Scale scores were assigned at 6 and 12 months. The sample size was n = 107. Mean age was 53.5 (SD = ±21, range = 18-91) years. Spearman correlations were comparable and strongest among discharge GCS and FOUR scores and 12-month outcome (r = .73, p < .000; r = .72, p < .000). Multivariate regression models indicate that age and discharge GCS were the strongest predictors of outcome. Areas under the curve were similar for GCS and FOUR scores, with discharge scores occupying the largest areas. GCS and FOUR scores were comparable in bivariate associations with long-term outcome. Discharge coma scores performed best for both tools, with GCS discharge scores predictive in multivariate models.

Evaluation of the CENTURY Model Using Long-Term Fertilization Trials under Corn-Wheat Cropping Systems in the Typical Croplands of China

PubMed Central

Cong, Rihuan; Wang, Xiujun; Xu, Minggang; Ogle, Stephen M.; Parton, William J.

2014-01-01

Soil organic matter models are widely used to study soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Here, we used the CENTURY model to simulate SOC in wheat-corn cropping systems at three long-term fertilization trials. Our study indicates that CENTURY can simulate fertilization effects on SOC dynamics under different climate and soil conditions. The normalized root mean square error is less than 15% for all the treatments. Soil carbon presents various changes under different fertilization management. Treatment with straw return would enhance SOC to a relatively stable level whereas chemical fertilization affects SOC differently across the three sites. After running CENTURY over the period of 1990–2050, the SOC levels are predicted to increase from 31.8 to 52.1 Mg ha−1 across the three sites. We estimate that the carbon sequestration potential between 1990 and 2050 would be 9.4–35.7 Mg ha−1 under the current high manure application at the three sites. Analysis of SOC in each carbon pool indicates that long-term fertilization enhances the slow pool proportion but decreases the passive pool proportion. Model results suggest that change in the slow carbon pool is the major driver of the overall trends in SOC stocks under long-term fertilization. PMID:24751981

Early changes of blood lipid levels during psychotropic drug treatment as predictors of long-term lipid changes and of new onset dyslipidemia.

PubMed

Delacrétaz, Aurélie; Vandenberghe, Frederik; Gholam-Rezaee, Mehdi; Saigi Morgui, Nuria; Glatard, Anaïs; Thonney, Jacques; Solida-Tozzi, Alessandra; Kolly, Stéphane; Gallo, Sylfa Fassassi; Baumann, Philipp; Berney, Sylvie; Zulauff, Sandrine Valloton; Aubry, Jean-Michel; Hasler, Roland; Ebbing, Karsten; von Gunten, Armin; Conus, Philippe; Eap, Chin B

Cardiovascular diseases and dyslipidemia represent a major health issue in psychiatry. Many psychotropic drugs can induce a rapid and substantial increase of blood lipid levels. This study aimed to determine the potential predictive power of an early change of blood lipid levels during psychotropic treatment on long-term change and on dyslipidemia development. Data were obtained from a prospective study including 181 psychiatric patients with metabolic parameters monitored during the first year of treatment and with adherence ascertained. Blood lipid levels (ie, total cholesterol [TC], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [non-HDL-C], and fasting triglycerides [TGs]) were measured at baseline and after 1, 3, and/or 12 months of treatment. Receiver-operating characteristic analyses indicated that early (ie, after 1 month of psychotropic treatment) increases (≥5%) for TC, LDL-C, TG, and non-HDL-C and decrease (≥5%) for HDL-C were the best predictors for clinically relevant modifications of blood lipid levels after 3 months of treatment (≥30% TC, ≥40% LDL-C, ≥45% TG, ≥55% non-HDL-C increase, and ≥20% HDL-C decrease; sensitivity 70%-100%, specificity 53%-72%). Predictive powers of these models were confirmed by fitting longitudinal multivariate models in the same cohort (P ≤ .03) as well as in a replication cohort (n = 79; P ≤ .003). Survival models showed significantly higher incidences of new onset dyslipidemia (TC, LDL-C, and non-HDL-C hypercholesterolemia, HDL-C hypocholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia) for patients with early changes of blood lipid levels compared to others (P ≤ .01). Early modifications of blood lipid levels following prescription of psychotropic drugs inducing dyslipidemia should therefore raise questions on clinical strategies to control long-term dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2017 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High temporal resolution modeling of the impact of rain, tides, and sea level rise on water table flooding in the Arch Creek basin, Miami-Dade County Florida USA.

PubMed

Sukop, Michael C; Rogers, Martina; Guannel, Greg; Infanti, Johnna M; Hagemann, Katherine

2018-03-01

Modeling of groundwater levels in a portion of the low-lying coastal Arch Creek basin in northern Miami-Dade County in Southeast Florida USA, which is subject to repetitive flooding, reveals that rain-induced short-term water table rises can be viewed as a primary driver of flooding events under current conditions. Areas below 0.9m North American Vertical Datum (NAVD) elevation are particularly vulnerable and areas below 1.5m NAVD are vulnerable to exceptionally large rainfall events. Long-term water table rise is evident in the groundwater data, and the rate appears to be consistent with local rates of sea level rise. Linear extrapolation of long-term observed groundwater levels to 2060 suggest roughly a doubling of the number of days when groundwater levels exceed 0.9m NAVD and a threefold increase in the number of days when levels exceed 1.5m NAVD. Projected sea level rise of 0.61m by 2060 together with increased rainfall lead to a model prediction of frequent groundwater-related flooding in areas<0.9m NAVD. However, current simulations do not consider the range of rainfall events that have led to water table elevations>1.5m NAVD and widespread flooding of the area in the past. Tidal fluctuations in the water table are predicted to be more pronounced within 600m of a tidally influenced water control structure that is hydrodynamically connected to Biscayne Bay. The inland influence of tidal fluctuations appears to increase with increased sea level, but the principal driver of high groundwater levels under the 2060 scenario conditions remains groundwater recharge due to rainfall events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neurocognition and community outcome in schizophrenia: long-term predictive validity.

PubMed

Fujii, Daryl E; Wylie, A Michael

2003-02-01

The present study examined the predictive validity of neuropsychological measures to functional outcome in 26 schizophrenic patients 15-plus year post-testing. Outcome measures included score on the Resource Associated Functional Level Scale (RAFLS), number of state hospital admissions, and total duration of state hospital inpatient stay. Results of several stepwise multiple regressions revealed that verbal memory significantly predicted RAFLS score, accounting for nearly half of the variance. Trails B significantly predicted duration of state hospital inpatient status. Discussion focused on the utility of these measures for clinicians and system planners. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

PubMed

Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

2015-01-01

One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

An evaluation of study design for estimating a time-of-day noise weighting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fields, J. M.

1986-01-01

The relative importance of daytime and nighttime noise of the same noise level is represented by a time-of-day weight in noise annoyance models. The high correlations between daytime and nighttime noise were regarded as a major reason that previous social surveys of noise annoyance could not accurately estimate the value of the time-of-day weight. Study designs which would reduce the correlation between daytime and nighttime noise are described. It is concluded that designs based on short term variations in nighttime noise levels would not be able to provide valid measures of response to nighttime noise. The accuracy of the estimate of the time-of-day weight is predicted for designs which are based on long term variations in nighttime noise levels. For these designs it is predicted that it is not possible to form satisfactorily precise estimates of the time-of-day weighting.

Large scale propagation intermittency in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrabi, Ali

2000-11-01

Long-term (several minutes to hours) amplitude variations observed in outdoor sound propagation experiments at Disneyland, California, in February 1998 are explained in terms of a time varying index of refraction. The experimentally propagated acoustic signals were received and recorded at several locations ranging from 300 meters to 2,800 meters. Meteorological data was taken as a function of altitude simultaneously with the received signal levels. There were many barriers along the path of acoustic propagation that affected the received signal levels, especially at short ranges. In a downward refraction situation, there could be a random change of amplitude in the predicted signals. A computer model based on the Fast Field Program (FFP) was used to compute the signal loss at the different receiving locations and to verify that the variations in the received signal levels can be predicted numerically. The calculations agree with experimental data with the same trend variations in average amplitude.

Short- and long-term theory-based predictors of physical activity in women who participated in a weight-management program.

PubMed

Wasserkampf, A; Silva, M N; Santos, I C; Carraça, E V; Meis, J J M; Kremers, S P J; Teixeira, P J

2014-12-01

This study analyzed psychosocial predictors of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Self-Determination Theory (SDT) and evaluated their associations with short- and long-term moderate plus vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and lifestyle physical activity (PA) outcomes in women who underwent a weight-management program. 221 participants (age 37.6 ± 7.02 years) completed a 12-month SDT-based lifestyle intervention and were followed-up for 24 months. Multiple linear regression analyses tested associations between psychosocial variables and self-reported short- and long-term PA outcomes. Regression analyses showed that control constructs of both theories were significant determinants of short- and long-term MVPA, whereas affective and self-determination variables were strong predictors of short- and long-term lifestyle PA. Regarding short-term prediction models, TPB constructs were stronger in predicting MVPA, whereas SDT was more effective in predicting lifestyle PA. For long-term models, both forms of PA were better predicted by SDT in comparison to TPB. These results highlight the importance of comparing health behavior theories to identify the mechanisms involved in the behavior change process. Control and competence constructs are crucial during early adoption of structured PA behaviors, whereas affective and intrinsic sources of motivation are more involved in incidental types of PA, particularly in relation to behavioral maintenance. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Interim results of long-term environmental exposures of advanced composites for aircraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pride, R. A.

1978-01-01

Interim results from a number of ongoing, long-term environmental effects programs for composite materials are reported. The flight service experience is evaluated for 142 composite aircraft components after more than five years and one million successful component flight hours. Ground-based outdoor exposures of composite material coupons after 3 years of exposure at five sites have reached equilibrium levels of moisture pickup which are predictable. Solar ultraviolet-induced material loss is discussed for these same exposures. No significant degradation has been observed in residual strength for either stressed or unstressed specimens, or for exposures to aviation fuels and fluids.

Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

2009-01-01

In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

Effect of changes in periodic limb movements under cpap on adherence and long term compliance in obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Mwenge, Gimbada B; Rougui, Ihsan; Rodenstein, Daniel

2017-11-20

Purpose of the study Periodic leg movements (PLMs) are found in 30% of patients suffering from OSA. Under CPAP, we observed that PLMs can increase, decrease, or remain unchanged. The predictors of these changes are not well established. Objective To determine the predictors of PLMs change under CPAP and its impact on long-term adherence. Materials and method The patients were referred to the sleep laboratory for snoring or sleepiness. A single PSG night has been performed before and after CPAP treatment. Data on medication used, comorbidities and ferritin level were collected. Results A total of 160 patients were recruited with a severe OSA. About 32.5% (52/160) patients had emerging PLM i.e. that appeared after the disappearance of respiratory events. By comparing patients with emerging-PLMs to others, we found that only the blood ferritin level was significantly different between groups. Moreover, after one-year follow-up, a significant difference in adherence and long-term compliance was observed between patients without PLM at both screening and CPAP polysomnographies or emerging PLM at the second study (56%) vs. patients with baseline PLM, whether PLM remained stable or decreased under CPAP treatment (75%) (p-value 0.028). Serum ferritin and presence of diabetes mellitus predicted the evolution of PLM observed. Patients with low ferritin levels demonstrated an increase of PLM after initiation of nasal CPAP treatment. Conclusion The emergence of PLM negatively impacts long-term adherence to nasal CPAP treatment in OSA. Blood ferritin level is a predictor of the evolution of PLM under CPAP therapy.

The GALA study: relationship between galectin-3 serum levels and short- and long-term outcomes of patients with acute heart failure.

PubMed

Miró, Òscar; González de la Presa, Bernardino; Herrero-Puente, Pablo; Fernández Bonifacio, Rosa; Möckel, Martin; Mueller, Christian; Casals, Gregori; Sandalinas, Silvia; Llorens, Pere; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Jacob, Javier; Bedini, José Luis; Gil, Víctor

2017-12-01

We tested the hypothesis that early measurement of galectin-3 at the emergency department (ED) during an episode of acute heart failure (AHF) allows predicting short- and long-term outcomes. We performed an exploratory study including 115 patients consecutively diagnosed with AHF in a single ED. Clinical and analytical variables were recorded. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality, and secondary endpoints were 30-day composite outcome (death, rehospitalization or ED reconsultation, whichever first) and 1-year mortality. Seven patients (6.1%) died within 30 days and 43 (37.4%) within 1 year. The 30-day composite endpoint was observed in 21.1% of patients. Galectin-3 was correlated with NT-proBNP and the glomerular filtration rate but not with age and s-cTnI. Measured at time of ED arrival, galectin-3 showed good discriminatory capacity for 30-day mortality (AUC ROC: 0.732; 95% CI 0.512-0.953; p = 0.041) but not for 1-year mortality (0.521; 0.408-0.633; p = 0.722). Patients with galectin-3 concentrations >42 μg/L had an OR = 7.67(95%CI = 1.57-37.53; p = 0.012) for 30-day mortality. Conversely, NT-proBNP only showed predictive capacity for 1-year mortality (0.642; 0.537-0.748; p = 0.014). Patients with NT-proBNP concentrations >5400 ng/L had an OR = 4.34 (95%CI = 1.93-9.77; p < 0.001) for 1-year mortality. These increased short- (galectin-3) and long-term (NT-proBNP) risks remained significant after adjustment for age or renal function. s-cTnI failed in both short- and long term death prediction. No biomarker predicted the short-term composite endpoint. These results suggest that galectin-3 could help to monitor the risk of short-term mortality in unselected patients with AHF attended in the ED.

Predicting Couples' Response to Marital Therapy: A Comparison of Short- and Long-Term Predictors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Douglas K.; And Others

1993-01-01

Examined couples' response to marital therapy at termination and 4 years posttreatment for 55 couples receiving either behavioral or insight-oriented marital therapy. Couples were more likely to be divorced or maritally distressed four years posttreatment if intake measures reflected high levels of negative marital affect, poor problem-solving…

Virtual Liver: integrating in vitro and in vivo data to predict chemical-induced toxicity

EPA Science Inventory

It is difficult to assess the health impact of long-term exposure to low levels of contaminants from animal studies. Current methods for testing the toxicity of a single chemical can cost millions of dollars, take up to two years and sacrifice thousands of animals. In vitro model...

Development of new geoinformation methods for modelling and prediction of sea level change over different timescales - overview of the project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedzielski, T.; Włosińska, M.; Miziński, B.; Hewelt, M.; Migoń, P.; Kosek, W.; Priede, I. G.

2012-04-01

The poster aims to provide a broad scientific audience with a general overview of a project on sea level change modelling and prediction that has just commenced at the University of Wrocław, Poland. The initiative that the project fits, called the Homing Plus programme, is organised by the Foundation for Polish Science and financially supported by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund and the Innovative Economy Programme. There are two key research objectives of the project that complement each other. First, emphasis is put on modern satellite altimetric gridded time series from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) repository. Daily sea level anomaly maps, access to which in near-real time is courtesy of AVISO, are being steadily downloaded every day to our local server in Wroclaw, Poland. These data will be processed within a general framework of modelling and prediction of sea level change in short, medium and long term. Secondly, sea level change over geological time is scrutinised in order to cover very long time scales that go far beyond a history of altimetric and tide-gauge measurements. The aforementioned approaches comprise a few tasks that aim to solve the following detailed problems. Within the first one, our objective is to seek spatio-temporal dependencies in the gridded sea level anomaly time series. Subsequently, predictions that make use of such cross-correlations shall be derived, and near-real time service for automatic update with validation will be implemented. Concurrently, (i.e. apart from spatio-temporal dependencies and their use in the process of forecasting variable sea level topography), threshold models shall be utilised for predicting the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal that is normally present in sea level anomaly time series of the equatorial Pacific. Within the second approach, however, the entirely different methods are proposed. Links between sea floor topography and sea level change will be quantified, with a particular emphasis placed on the hypsometric curve and its semi-empirical modelling. Very long-term projections of sea level change will be based on testing statistical hypotheses and trend analyses, but input data will be calculated from theoretical models. Slightly apart from this topic is a notion of nonlinearity that was earlier shown to be present in gridded sea level anomaly time series. Thus, the list of intermediate tasks concludes with a need for a comprehensive interpretation of such irregularities.

Comparison of the performances of copeptin and multiple biomarkers in long-term prognosis of severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Zhang, Zu-Yong; Zhang, Li-Xin; Dong, Xiao-Qiao; Yu, Wen-Hua; Du, Quan; Yang, Ding-Bo; Shen, Yong-Feng; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Qiang; Che, Zhi-Hao; Liu, Qun-Jie; Jiang, Li; Du, Yuan-Feng

2014-10-01

Enhanced blood levels of copeptin correlate with poor clinical outcomes after acute critical illness. This study aimed to compare the prognostic performances of plasma concentrations of copeptin and other biomarkers like myelin basic protein, glial fibrillary astrocyte protein, S100B, neuron-specific enolase, phosphorylated axonal neurofilament subunit H, Tau and ubiquitin carboxyl-terminal hydrolase L1 in severe traumatic brain injury. We recruited 102 healthy controls and 102 acute patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Their prognostic predictive performances of 6-month mortality and unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 1-3) were compared. Plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were statistically significantly higher in all patients than in healthy controls, in non-survivors than in survivors and in patients with unfavorable outcome than with favorable outcome. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were similar to those of Glasgow Coma Scale score for prognostic prediction. Except plasma copeptin concentration, other biomarkers concentrations in plasma did not statistically significantly improve prognostic predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale score. Copeptin levels may be a useful tool to predict long-term clinical outcomes after severe traumatic brain injury and have a potential to assist clinicians. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of individual differences and manipulated life expectancies on the willingness to engage in sexual coercion.

PubMed

Dunkel, Curtis S; Mathes, Eugene

2011-12-16

The role of the individual difference variables of mate value, short-term and long-term mating preferences, and life history strategy along with the manipulated variable of life expectancy were used to predict differences in the willingness to engage in sexually coercive behaviors. Short-term preferences and long-term preferences were correlated with the willingness to engage in sexual coercion at all life expectancies. Life history strategy was correlated with the willingness to engage in sexual coercion at only the shortest and longest life expectancies. Most importantly short-term and long-term mating preferences interacted with life expectancy to predict the willingness to engage in sexually coercive behaviors. Short life expectancies increased willingness in individuals with high short-term and low long-term preferences. The results are discussed in terms of the varying theories of sexual coercion with emphasis put on a life history approach.

The long-term effects of maternal depression: early childhood physical health as a pathway to offspring depression.

PubMed

Raposa, Elizabeth; Hammen, Constance; Brennan, Patricia; Najman, Jake

2014-01-01

Cross-sectional and retrospective studies have highlighted the long-term negative effects of maternal depression on offspring physical, social, and emotional development, but longitudinal research is needed to clarify the pathways by which maternal depression during pregnancy and early childhood affects offspring outcomes. The current study tested one developmental pathway by which maternal depression during pregnancy might negatively impact offspring mental health in young adulthood, via poor physical health in early childhood. The sample consisted of 815 Australian youth and their mothers who were followed for 20 years. Mothers reported on their own depressive symptoms during pregnancy and offspring early childhood. Youth completed interviews about health-related stress and social functioning at age 20 years, and completed a questionnaire about their own depressive symptoms 2 to 5 years later. Path analysis indicated that prenatal maternal depressive symptoms predicted worse physical health during early childhood for offspring, and this effect was partially explained by ongoing maternal depression in early childhood. Offspring poor physical health during childhood predicted increased health-related stress and poor social functioning at age 20. Finally, increased health-related stress and poor social functioning predicted increased levels of depressive symptoms later in young adulthood. Maternal depression had a significant total indirect effect on youth depression via early childhood health and its psychosocial consequences. Poor physical health in early childhood and its effects on young adults' social functioning and levels of health related stress is one important pathway by which maternal depression has long-term consequences for offspring mental health. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Upregulation of CREB-mediated transcription enhances both short- and long-term memory.

PubMed

Suzuki, Akinobu; Fukushima, Hotaka; Mukawa, Takuya; Toyoda, Hiroki; Wu, Long-Jun; Zhao, Ming-Gao; Xu, Hui; Shang, Yuze; Endoh, Kengo; Iwamoto, Taku; Mamiya, Nori; Okano, Emiko; Hasegawa, Shunsuke; Mercaldo, Valentina; Zhang, Yue; Maeda, Ryouta; Ohta, Miho; Josselyn, Sheena A; Zhuo, Min; Kida, Satoshi

2011-06-15

Unraveling the mechanisms by which the molecular manipulation of genes of interest enhances cognitive function is important to establish genetic therapies for cognitive disorders. Although CREB is thought to positively regulate formation of long-term memory (LTM), gain-of-function effects of CREB remain poorly understood, especially at the behavioral level. To address this, we generated four lines of transgenic mice expressing dominant active CREB mutants (CREB-Y134F or CREB-DIEDML) in the forebrain that exhibited moderate upregulation of CREB activity. These transgenic lines improved not only LTM but also long-lasting long-term potentiation in the CA1 area in the hippocampus. However, we also observed enhanced short-term memory (STM) in contextual fear-conditioning and social recognition tasks. Enhanced LTM and STM could be dissociated behaviorally in these four lines of transgenic mice, suggesting that the underlying mechanism for enhanced STM and LTM are distinct. LTM enhancement seems to be attributable to the improvement of memory consolidation by the upregulation of CREB transcriptional activity, whereas higher basal levels of BDNF, a CREB target gene, predicted enhanced shorter-term memory. The importance of BDNF in STM was verified by microinfusing BDNF or BDNF inhibitors into the hippocampus of wild-type or transgenic mice. Additionally, increasing BDNF further enhanced LTM in one of the lines of transgenic mice that displayed a normal BDNF level but enhanced LTM, suggesting that upregulation of BDNF and CREB activity cooperatively enhances LTM formation. Our findings suggest that CREB positively regulates memory consolidation and affects memory performance by regulating BDNF expression.

School food cost-benefits: England.

PubMed

Nelson, Michael

2013-06-01

To estimate the costs per relevant unit (pupils and meals) associated with improvements to school food and the potential economic and health gains that may result. Calculation of costs per relevant unit (pupils and meals) based on (i) Department for Education expenditure to support improvements in school food, 2005–2011 and (ii) measures of the changes in the number of pupils taking school lunch and the number of meals served over the same time period; plus examples of the use of linked data to predict longer-term economic and health outcomes of healthier eating at school. England. Local authorities, government departments and non-departmental public bodies. Analysis of investment over a 6-year period indicates that costs of setting up and maintaining a change organization such as the School Food Trust were low in relation to short-term benefits in nutrition and behaviour. Models that predict long-terms gains to the exchequer and to quality-adjusted life years need further elaboration. Modest levels of government investment in the delivery and promotion of healthier school food is likely to yield both short-term and long-term benefits in relation to nutrition, learning, economics and health.

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Barandiaran, Danny; Hilburn, Kyle; Houser, Paul; Oglesby, Bob; Pan, Ming; Pinker, Rachel; Santanello, Joe; Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan;

Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies.

PubMed

Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Vom Hofe, Rudolf

2013-01-01

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage  = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Reduced tyrosine kinase inhibitor dose is predicted to be as effective as standard dose in chronic myeloid leukemia: A simulation study based on phase 3 trial data.

PubMed

Fassoni, Artur C; Baldow, Christoph; Roeder, Ingo; Glauche, Ingmar

2018-06-28

Continuing tyrosine kinase inhibitor mediated targeting of the BCR-ABL1 oncoprotein is the standard therapy for chronic myeloid leukemia and allows for a sustained disease control in the majority of patients. While therapy cessation for patients appeared as a safe option for about half of the optimally responding patients, a systematic assessment of long-term tyrosine kinase inhibitor dose de-escalation is missing. We use a mathematical model to analyze and consistently describe biphasic treatment responses from tyrosine kinase inhibitor treated patients from two independent clinical phase-3 trials. Scale estimates reveal that drug efficiency determines the initial response while the long-term behavior is limited by the rare activation of leukemic stem cells. We use this mathematical framework to investigate the influence of different dosing regimens on the treatment outcome. We provide strong evidence suggesting that tyrosine kinase inhibitor dose de-escalation (at least 50%) does not lead to a reduction of long-term treatment efficiency for most patients, which have already achieved sustained remission, and maintains the secondary decline of BCR-ABL1 levels. We demonstrate that continuous BCR-ABL1 monitoring provides patient-specific predictions of an optimal reduced dose not decreasing the anti-leukemic effect on residual leukemic stem cells. Our results are consistent with the interim results of the DESTINY trial and provide clinically testable predictions. Our results suggest that dose halving should be considered as a long-term treatment option for well-responding chronic myeloid leukemia patients under continuing maintenance therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitors. We emphasize the clinical potential of this approach to reduce treatment-related side-effects and therapy costs. Copyright © 2018, Ferrata Storti Foundation.

Early identification of posttraumatic stress following military deployment: Application of machine learning methods to a prospective study of Danish soldiers.

PubMed

Karstoft, Karen-Inge; Statnikov, Alexander; Andersen, Søren B; Madsen, Trine; Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R

2015-09-15

Pre-deployment identification of soldiers at risk for long-term posttraumatic stress psychopathology after home coming is important to guide decisions about deployment. Early post-deployment identification can direct early interventions to those in need and thereby prevents the development of chronic psychopathology. Both hold significant public health benefits given large numbers of deployed soldiers, but has so far not been achieved. Here, we aim to assess the potential for pre- and early post-deployment prediction of resilience or posttraumatic stress development in soldiers by application of machine learning (ML) methods. ML feature selection and prediction algorithms were applied to a prospective cohort of 561 Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2009 to identify unique risk indicators and forecast long-term posttraumatic stress responses. Robust pre- and early postdeployment risk indicators were identified, and included individual PTSD symptoms as well as total level of PTSD symptoms, previous trauma and treatment, negative emotions, and thought suppression. The predictive performance of these risk indicators combined was assessed by cross-validation. Together, these indicators forecasted long term posttraumatic stress responses with high accuracy (pre-deployment: AUC = 0.84 (95% CI = 0.81-0.87), post-deployment: AUC = 0.88 (95% CI = 0.85-0.91)). This study utilized a previously collected data set and was therefore not designed to exhaust the potential of ML methods. Further, the study relied solely on self-reported measures. Pre-deployment and early post-deployment identification of risk for long-term posttraumatic psychopathology are feasible and could greatly reduce the public health costs of war. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

2015-04-01

Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to reveal the mechanisms of the dynamic process of landslide deformation, and serve as an important basis for the prediction and evaluation of landslides.

Pre-Interventional Kynurenine Predicts Medium-Term Outcome after Contrast Media Exposure Due to Coronary Angiography.

PubMed

Reichetzeder, Christoph; Heunisch, Fabian; Einem, Gina von; Tsuprykov, Oleg; Kellner, Karl-Heinz; Dschietzig, Thomas; Kretschmer, Axel; Hocher, Berthold

2017-01-01

Contrast induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) remains a serious complication of contrast media enhanced procedures like coronary angiography. There is still a lack of established biomarkers that help to identify patients at high risk for short and long-term complications. The aim of the current study was to evaluate plasma kynurenine as a predictive biomarker for CI-AKI and long-term complications, measured by the combined endpoint "major adverse kidney events" (MAKE) up to 120 days after CM application. In this prospective cohort study 245 patients undergoing coronary angiography were analyzed. Blood samples were obtained at baseline, 24h and 48h after contrast media (CM) application to diagnose CI-AKI. Patients were followed for 120 days for adverse clinical events including death, the need for dialysis, and a doubling of plasma creatinine. Occurrence of any of these events was summarized in the combined endpoint MAKE. Preinterventional plasma kynurenine was not associated with CI-AKI. Patients who later developed MAKE displayed significantly increased preinterventional plasma kynurenine levels (p<0.0001). ROC analysis revealed that preinterventional kynurenine is highly predictive for MAKE (AUC=0.838; p<0.0001). The optimal cutoff was found at ≥3.5 µmol/L Using this cutoff, the Kaplan-Meier estimator demonstrated that concentrations of plasma kynurenine ≥3.5 µmol/L were significantly associated with a higher prevalence of MAKE until follow up (p<0.0001). This association remained significant in multivariate Cox regression models adjusted for relevant factors of long-term renal outcome. Preinterventional plasma kynurenine might serve as a highly predictive biomarker for MAKE up to 120 days after coronary angiography. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

Long-term Exposure to PM2.5 and Mortality Among Older Adults in the Southeastern US.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Shi, Liuhua; Lee, Mihye; Liu, Pengfei; Di, Qian; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2017-03-01

Little is known about what factors modify the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on mortality, in part because in most previous studies certain groups such as rural residents and individuals with lower socioeconomic status (SES) are under-represented. We studied 13.1 million Medicare beneficiaries (age ≥65) residing in seven southeastern US states during 2000-2013 with 95 million person-years of follow-up. We predicted annual average of PM2.5 in each zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) using a hybrid spatiotemporal model. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between long-term PM2.5 and mortality. We tested effect modification by individual-level covariates (race, sex, eligibility for both Medicare and Medicaid, and medical history), neighborhood-level covariates (urbanicity, percentage below poverty level, lower education, median income, and median home value), mean summer temperature, and mass fraction of 11 PM2.5 components. The hazard ratio (HR) for death was 1.021 (95% confidence interval: 1.019, 1.022) per 1 μg m increase in annual PM2.5. The HR decreased with age. It was higher among males, non-whites, dual-eligible individuals, and beneficiaries with previous hospital admissions. It was higher in neighborhoods with lower SES or higher urbanicity. The HR increased with mean summer temperature. The risk associated with PM2.5 increased with relative concentration of elemental carbon, vanadium, copper, calcium, and iron and decreased with nitrate, organic carbon, and sulfate. Associations between long-term PM2.5 exposure and death were modified by individual-level, neighborhood-level variables, temperature, and chemical compositions.

Researches on High Accuracy Prediction Methods of Earth Orientation Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X. Q.

2015-09-01

The Earth rotation reflects the coupling process among the solid Earth, atmosphere, oceans, mantle, and core of the Earth on multiple spatial and temporal scales. The Earth rotation can be described by the Earth's orientation parameters, which are abbreviated as EOP (mainly including two polar motion components PM_X and PM_Y, and variation in the length of day ΔLOD). The EOP is crucial in the transformation between the terrestrial and celestial reference systems, and has important applications in many areas such as the deep space exploration, satellite precise orbit determination, and astrogeodynamics. However, the EOP products obtained by the space geodetic technologies generally delay by several days to two weeks. The growing demands for modern space navigation make high-accuracy EOP prediction be a worthy topic. This thesis is composed of the following three aspects, for the purpose of improving the EOP forecast accuracy. (1) We analyze the relation between the length of the basic data series and the EOP forecast accuracy, and compare the EOP prediction accuracy for the linear autoregressive (AR) model and the nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) method by performing the least squares (LS) extrapolations. The results show that the high precision forecast of EOP can be realized by appropriate selection of the basic data series length according to the required time span of EOP prediction: for short-term prediction, the basic data series should be shorter, while for the long-term prediction, the series should be longer. The analysis also showed that the LS+AR model is more suitable for the short-term forecasts, while the LS+ANN model shows the advantages in the medium- and long-term forecasts. (2) We develop for the first time a new method which combines the autoregressive model and Kalman filter (AR+Kalman) in short-term EOP prediction. The equations of observation and state are established using the EOP series and the autoregressive coefficients respectively, which are used to improve/re-evaluate the AR model. Comparing to the single AR model, the AR+Kalman method performs better in the prediction of UT1-UTC and ΔLOD, and the improvement in the prediction of the polar motion is significant. (3) Following the successful Earth Orientation Parameter Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC), the Earth Orientation Parameter Combination of Prediction Pilot Project (EOPC PPP) was sponsored in 2010. As one of the participants from China, we update and submit the short- and medium-term (1 to 90 days) EOP predictions every day. From the current comparative statistics, our prediction accuracy is on the medium international level. We will carry out more innovative researches to improve the EOP forecast accuracy and enhance our level in EOP forecast.

Predictors of the highest long-term care expenditures in Japan.

PubMed

Olivares-Tirado, Pedro; Tamiya, Nanako; Kashiwagi, Masayo; Kashiwagi, Kimikazu

2011-05-17

In Japan, as the number of elderly covered by the Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) system has increased, demand for long-term care services has increased substantially and consequently growing expenditures are threatening the sustainability of the system. Understanding the predictive factors associated with long-term care expenditures among the elderly would be useful in developing future strategies to ensure the sustainability of the system. We report a set of predictors of the highest long-term care expenditures in a cohort of elderly persons who received consecutive long-term care services during a year in a Japanese city. Data were obtained from databases of the LTC insurer of City A in Japan. Binary logistic regression was used to examine the predictors of the highest long-term care expenditures. We used a simplified model that focused on the effects of disability status and type of services used, while controlling for several relevant factors. Goodness of fit, a multicollinearity test, and logistic regression diagnostics were carried out for the final model. The study cohort consisted of 862 current users of LTCI system in city A. After controlling for gender and income, age, increased utilization rate of benefits, decline in functional status, higher care needs level and institutional care were found to be associated with the highest LTCI expenditures. An increased utilization rate of benefits (OR = 24.2) was a strong main effect predictors of the high LTC expenditures. However, a significant interaction between institutional care and high care need level was found, providing evidence of the combined effect of the two covariates. Beyond to confirm that disability status of elderly persons is the main factor driving the demand of LTC services and consequently the expenditures, we showed that changes in utilization rate of benefits -a specific insurance factor- and the use of institutional care conditional on the high care level, were strongest predictors of the highest LTC expenditures. These findings could become crucial for tracking policies aimed at ensuring financial sustainability of LTCI from a public insurer perspective in Japan.

Predictors of the highest long-term care expenditures in Japan

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In Japan, as the number of elderly covered by the Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) system has increased, demand for long-term care services has increased substantially and consequently growing expenditures are threatening the sustainability of the system. Understanding the predictive factors associated with long-term care expenditures among the elderly would be useful in developing future strategies to ensure the sustainability of the system. We report a set of predictors of the highest long-term care expenditures in a cohort of elderly persons who received consecutive long-term care services during a year in a Japanese city. Methods Data were obtained from databases of the LTC insurer of City A in Japan. Binary logistic regression was used to examine the predictors of the highest long-term care expenditures. We used a simplified model that focused on the effects of disability status and type of services used, while controlling for several relevant factors. Goodness of fit, a multicollinearity test, and logistic regression diagnostics were carried out for the final model. Results The study cohort consisted of 862 current users of LTCI system in city A. After controlling for gender and income, age, increased utilization rate of benefits, decline in functional status, higher care needs level and institutional care were found to be associated with the highest LTCI expenditures. An increased utilization rate of benefits (OR = 24.2) was a strong main effect predictors of the high LTC expenditures. However, a significant interaction between institutional care and high care need level was found, providing evidence of the combined effect of the two covariates. Conclusions Beyond to confirm that disability status of elderly persons is the main factor driving the demand of LTC services and consequently the expenditures, we showed that changes in utilization rate of benefits -a specific insurance factor- and the use of institutional care conditional on the high care level, were strongest predictors of the highest LTC expenditures. These findings could become crucial for tracking policies aimed at ensuring financial sustainability of LTCI from a public insurer perspective in Japan. PMID:21575260

Lung to head ratio in infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia does not predict long term pulmonary hypertension.

PubMed

Garcia, Alejandro V; Fingeret, Abbey L; Thirumoorthi, Arul S; Hahn, Eunice; Leskowitz, Matthew J; Aspelund, Gudrun; Krishnan, Usha S; Stolar, Charles J H

2013-01-01

Lung-to-head ratio (LHR) has been used for antenatal evaluation of infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). We hypothesized that LHR was predictive of acute and chronic pulmonary hypertension in infants with CDH. Echocardiograms on all inborn infants with CDH (December 2001-March 2011) were reviewed. Echocardiograms at 1 and 3 months post-repair and most recent follow-up were assessed for presence of pulmonary hypertension (PAH). LHR, gestational age, birth weight, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), and death rate were obtained. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. 106 infants with CDH had LHR obtained at median 28 weeks gestation (median LHR=1.25 [range 0.4-5.3]). Median follow-up was 26.6 months (range 4.6-97.5). The long-term incidence of pulmonary hypertension was 16%. LHR was significantly associated with pulmonary hypertension at one month (p=0.0001) but not at 3 months (p=0.22) or long-term (p=0.54). LHR was predictive of ECMO use (p=0.01) and death (p=0.001). The overall incidence of PAH in infants with CDH decreases over time. Prenatal LHR predicts PAH at one month but not long-term in infants with CDH. The ability for LHR to predict PAH at one month but not long term may suggest remodeling of the pulmonary vasculature over time. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate constrains the evolutionary history and biodiversity of crocodylians.

PubMed

Mannion, Philip D; Benson, Roger B J; Carrano, Matthew T; Tennant, Jonathan P; Judd, Jack; Butler, Richard J

2015-09-24

The fossil record of crocodylians and their relatives (pseudosuchians) reveals a rich evolutionary history, prompting questions about causes of long-term decline to their present-day low biodiversity. We analyse climatic drivers of subsampled pseudosuchian biodiversity over their 250 million year history, using a comprehensive new data set. Biodiversity and environmental changes correlate strongly, with long-term decline of terrestrial taxa driven by decreasing temperatures in northern temperate regions, and biodiversity decreases at lower latitudes matching patterns of increasing aridification. However, there is no relationship between temperature and biodiversity for marine pseudosuchians, with sea-level change and post-extinction opportunism demonstrated to be more important drivers. A 'modern-type' latitudinal biodiversity gradient might have existed throughout pseudosuchian history, and range expansion towards the poles occurred during warm intervals. Although their fossil record suggests that current global warming might promote long-term increases in crocodylian biodiversity and geographic range, the 'balancing forces' of anthropogenic environmental degradation complicate future predictions.

Role of calcitonin gene-related peptide in cardioprotection of short-term and long-term exercise preconditioning.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao-Juan; Pan, Shan-Shan

2014-07-01

To examine the role of calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) in cardioprotection of short-term and long-term exercise preconditioning (EP). Male Sprague-Dawley rats were, respectively, subjected to continuous intermittent treadmill training 3 days or 3 weeks as short-term or long-term EP protocols. The myocardial injury induced by isoproterenol (ISO) was performed 24 hours after short-term and long-term EP. The myocardial injury was evaluated in terms of the serum cardiac troponin levels and the hematoxylin-basic fuchsin-picric acid staining. Additionally, serum CGRP levels, CGRP expression in the dorsal root ganglion (DRG), and heart were analyzed as possible mechanisms to explain short-term and long-term EP-induced cardioprotection. Both short-term and long-term EP markedly attenuated the isoproterenol-induced myocardial ischemia with lower serum cardiac troponin levels. Short-term EP does not alter serum CGRP levels and CGRP expression in the DRG and heart. Long-term EP significantly increases serum CGRP levels and CGRP expression in the DRG and heart. The results indicate that short-term EP does not increase the synthesis and release of CGRP. Therefore, the cardioprotective effect of short-term EP does not involve CGRP adaptation. Furthermore, long-term EP increases CGRP synthesis in the DRG and promotes CGRP release in the blood and heart. Hence, CGRP may play an important role in the cardioprotective effect of long-term EP.

Predicting plant uptake of cadmium: validated with long-term contaminated soils.

PubMed

Lamb, Dane T; Kader, Mohammed; Ming, Hui; Wang, Liang; Abbasi, Sedigheh; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Naidu, Ravi

2016-10-01

Cadmium accumulates in plant tissues at low soil loadings and is a concern for human health. Yet at higher levels it is also of concern for ecological receptors. We determined Cd partitioning constants for 41 soils to examine the role of soil properties controlling Cd partitioning and plant uptake. From a series of sorption and dose response studies, transfer functions were developed for predicting Cd uptake in Cucumis sativa L. (cucumber). The parameter log K f was predicted with soil pH ca , logCEC and log OC. Transfer of soil pore-water Cd 2+ to shoots was described with a power function (R 2  = 0.73). The dataset was validated with 13 long-term contaminated soils (plus 2 control soils) ranging in Cd concentration from 0.2 to 300 mg kg -1 . The series of equations predicting Cd shoot from pore-water Cd 2+ were able to predict the measured data in the independent dataset (root mean square error = 2.2). The good relationship indicated that Cd uptake to cucumber shoots could be predicted with Cd pore and Cd 2+ without other pore-water parameters such as pH or Ca 2+ . The approach may be adapted to a range of plant species.

Draft Environmental Impact Statement. MX Deployment Area Selection and Land Withdrawal/Acquisition DEIS. Volume II. Comparative Analysis of Alternatives.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

would increase recreational activities, including ORV use and poaching . The sum of direct and indirect impacts on this species could be significant...months, and increased policing for poaching could reduce the long-term impacts to insignificant or even positive levels. No impacts would be predicted...comparable species found in five counties. Short-term impacts are expected from poaching and ORVs. The prairie chicken will likely reoccupy habitat

Serum Levels of M2BPGi as Short-Term Predictors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

PubMed

Liu, Jessica; Hu, Hui-Han; Lee, Mei-Hsuan; Korenaga, Masaaki; Jen, Chin-Lan; Batrla-Utermann, Richard; Lu, Sheng-Nan; Wang, Li-Yu; Mizokami, Masashi; Chen, Chien-Jen; Yang, Hwai-I

2017-10-30

This study examines the role of M2BPGi, a novel seromarker for chronic hepatitis, in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among untreated chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. In this nested case-control study, 1070 samples were assayed for M2BPGi, including 357 samples from HCC cases, and 713 samples from non-HCC controls, collected at various times throughout follow-up. HCC case samples were stratified according to years prior to diagnosis. Associations between M2BPGi and HCC were examined with multivariate logistic regression. M2BPGi, α-fetoprotein (AFP), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels were significant independent short-term predictors of HCC, while M2BPGi was insignificant in long-term analyses. Compared to M2BPGi levels <1.0 cut-off index (COI), those with levels ≥2.0 COI had multivariate odds ratios (95% CI) for HCC of 7.40 (2.40-22.78), 6.46 (2.58-16.18), and 2.24 (0.97-5.15), respectively, for prediction of HCC within 1-2, 2-5, and ≥5 years. Higher proportions of individuals had M2BPGi levels ≥2.0 COI in samples closer to HCC diagnosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for models with M2BPGi, AFP, and HBsAg levels predicting HCC within 1-2, 2-5, and >5 years were 0.84, 0.81, and 0.75. M2BPGi is a strong and independent short-term predictor of HCC in CHB patients.

Predicting long-term absenteeism from work in construction industry: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Hoonakker, Peter; van Duivenbooden, Cor

2012-01-01

In this study we examine whether the Work Ability Index (WAI) has additional value in predicting long-term absenteeism in construction industry. Results of the study show that the WAI has additional value in predicting absenteeism, but that the amount of explained variance is low. This is partly due to the definition of absenteeism in The Netherlands, where this study took place.

Prevalence and facility level correlates of need for wheelchair seating assessment among long-term care residents.

PubMed

Giesbrecht, Edward M; Mortenson, W Ben; Miller, William C

2012-01-01

Wheelchairs are frequently prescribed for residents with mobility impairments in long-term care. Many residents receive poorly fitting wheelchairs, compromising functional independence and mobility, and contributing to subsequent health issues such as pressure ulcers. The extent of this problem and the factors that predict poor fit are poorly understood; such evidence would contribute greatly to effective and efficient clinical practice in long-term care. To identify the prevalence of need for wheelchair seating intervention among residents in long-term care facilities in Vancouver and explore the relationship between the need for seating intervention and facility level factors. Logistic regression analysis using secondary data from a cross-sectional study exploring predictors of resident mobility. A total of 263 residents (183 females and 80 males) were randomly selected from 11 long-term care facilities in the Vancouver health region (mean age 84.2 ± 8.6 years). The Seating Identification Tool was used to establish subject need for wheelchair seating intervention. Individual item frequency was calculated. Six contextual variables were measured at each facility including occupational therapy staffing, funding source, policies regarding wheelchair-related equipment, and decision-making philosophy. The overall prevalence rate of inappropriate seating was 58.6% (95% CI 52.6-64.5), ranging from 30.4 to 81.8% among the individual facilities. Discomfort, poor positioning and mobility, and skin integrity were the most common issues. Two facility level variables were significant predictors of need for seating assessment: ratio of occupational therapists per 100 residents [OR 0.11 (CI 0.04, 0.31)] and expectation that residents purchase wheelchair equipment beyond the basic level [OR 2.78 (1.11, 6.97)]. A negative association between facility prevalence rate and ratio of occupational therapists (r(p) = -0.684, CI -0.143 to -0.910) was found. Prevalence of need for seating assessment in long-term care is high overall but it varies considerably between facilities. Increasing access to occupational therapy services appears to mediate this need. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects on nonmetallic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Changes in functional properties of a broad spectrum of nonmetallic materials as a function of environment and exposure time were evaluated. Models for predicting long-term material performance are discussed. A literature search on specific materials in the space and simulated space environment was carried out and evaluated.

Enhanced Predictability Through Lagrangian Observations and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

Newark, DE 19716 phone: (302) 831-6836 fax: (302) 831-6521 email: brucel @udel.edu Award Number: N0014-05-1-0092 http://newark.cms.udel.edu... brucel /slmaps LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goal of this project is develop the capability to predict the origin and fate of ocean water

Comparing Three Methods of Geometrical Approach in Visualizing Differential Equations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

KarimiFardinpour, Younes; Gooya, Zahra

2018-01-01

This paper concerns "planes-coordination" and "long-term-prediction" difficulties. These are specifically the case when students attempt to visualize solution curves of autonomous differential equations for predicting the long-term behavior of various initial conditions. To address these issues, a study was conducted in which…

A Kinetic Model for Calcium Dynamics in RAW 264.7 Cells: 2. Knockdown Response and Long-Term Response

PubMed Central

Maurya, Mano Ram; Subramaniam, Shankar

2007-01-01

This article addresses how quantitative models such as the one proposed in the companion article can be used to study cellular network perturbations such as knockdowns and pharmacological perturbations in a predictive manner. Using the kinetic model for cytosolic calcium dynamics in RAW 264.7 cells developed in the companion article, the calcium response to complement 5a (C5a) for the knockdown of seven proteins (C5a receptor; G-β-2; G-α,i-2,3; regulator of G-protein signaling-10; G-protein coupled receptor kinase-2; phospholipase C β-3; arrestin) is predicted and validated against the data from the Alliance for Cellular Signaling. The knockdown responses provide insights into how altered expressions of important proteins in disease states result in intermediate measurable phenotypes. Long-term response and long-term dose response have also been predicted, providing insights into how the receptor desensitization, internalization, and recycle result in tolerance. Sensitivity analysis of long-term response shows that the mechanisms and parameters in the receptor recycle path are important for long-term calcium dynamics. PMID:17483189

Earth Orientation Products - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov Websites

Earth Orientation Products Daily Solutions Weekly Solutions Long-term Delta T GPS-based Products VLBI report for contributed series. Long-term Delta T Monthly determination of Delta T (TT - UT1) since 1973 and long-term predictions. Determinations of Delta T are updated approximately quarterly, and long

Soluble E-cadherin is an independent pretherapeutic factor for long-term survival in gastric cancer.

PubMed

Chan, Annie On-On; Chu, Kent-Man; Lam, Shiu-Kum; Wong, Benjamin Chun-Yu; Kwok, Ka-Fai; Law, Simon; Ko, Samuel; Hui, Wai-Mo; Yueng, Yui-Hung; Wong, John

2003-06-15

To evaluate whether pretherapeutic serum soluble E-cadherin is an independent factor predicting long-term survival in gastric cancer. Gastric cancer remains the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the world, but a satisfactory tumor marker is currently unavailable for gastric cancer. Soluble E-cadherin has recently been found to have prognostic value in gastric cancer. One hundred sixteen patients with histologically proven gastric adenocarcinoma were included in the trial. Pretherapeutic serum was collected, and soluble E-cadherin was assayed using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. The patients were followed up prospectively at the outpatient clinic. There were 75 men and 41 women, with a mean (+/- SD) age of 66 +/- 14 years. Forty-eight percent of tumors were located in the gastric antrum. The median survival time was 11 months. The mean pretherapeutic value of soluble E-cadherin was 9,159 ng/mL (range, 6,002 to 10,025 ng/mL), and the mean pretherapeutic level of carcinoembryonic antigen was 11 ng/mL (range, 0.3 to 4,895 ng/mL). On multivariate analysis, soluble E-cadherin is an independent factor predicting long-term survival. Ninety percent of patients with a serum level of E-cadherin greater than 10,000 ng/mL had a survival time of less than 3 years (P =.009). Soluble E-cadherin is a potentially valuable pretherapeutic prognostic factor in patients with gastric cancer.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qijie

2015-08-01

The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

A longitudinal study of the association between violent video game play and aggression among adolescents.

PubMed

Willoughby, Teena; Adachi, Paul J C; Good, Marie

2012-07-01

In the past 2 decades, correlational and experimental studies have found a positive association between violent video game play and aggression. There is less evidence, however, to support a long-term relation between these behaviors. This study examined sustained violent video game play and adolescent aggressive behavior across the high school years and directly assessed the socialization (violent video game play predicts aggression over time) versus selection hypotheses (aggression predicts violent video game play over time). Adolescents (N = 1,492, 50.8% female) were surveyed annually from Grade 9 to Grade 12 about their video game play and aggressive behaviors. Nonviolent video game play, frequency of overall video game play, and a comprehensive set of potential 3rd variables were included as covariates in each analysis. Sustained violent video game play was significantly related to steeper increases in adolescents' trajectory of aggressive behavior over time. Moreover, greater violent video game play predicted higher levels of aggression over time, after controlling for previous levels of aggression, supporting the socialization hypothesis. In contrast, no support was found for the selection hypothesis. Nonviolent video game play also did not predict higher levels of aggressive behavior over time. Our findings, and the fact that many adolescents play video games for several hours every day, underscore the need for a greater understanding of the long-term relation between violent video games and aggression, as well as the specific game characteristics (e.g., violent content, competition, pace of action) that may be responsible for this association.

Small mammals as indicators of short-term and long-term disturbance in mixed prairie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leis, S.A.; Leslie, David M.; Engle, David M.; Fehmi, J.S.

2008-01-01

Disturbance by military maneuvers over short and long time scales may have differential effects on grassland communities. We assessed small mammals as indicators of disturbance by military maneuvers in a mixed prairie in southern Oklahoma USA. We examined sites on two soil series, Foard and Lawton, across a gradient of disturbance intensity. A MANOVA showed that abundance of small mammals was associated (p = 0.03) with short-term (cover of vehicle tracks) disturbance but was not associated (p = 0.12) with long-term (loss of soil organic carbon, SOC) disturbance intensity. At the individual species level, Sigmodon hispidus (cotton rat) and Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) occurred across all levels of disturbance and in both soil types. Only P. maniculatus abundance changed (p < 0.01) with short-term disturbance and increased by about one individual per 5% of additional track-cover. Abundance of P. maniculatus also increased (p = 0.04) by about three individuals per 1% increase in soil carbon. Chaetodipus hispidus (hispid pocket mouse) and Reithrodontomys fulvescens (fulvous harvest mouse) only occurred in single soil types limiting their potential as more general indicators. Abundance of P. maniculatus was positively related to shifts in plant species composition and likely reflected changes in vegetation structure (i.e. litter depth) and forage availability resulting from disturbance. Peromyscus maniculatus may be a useful biological indicator of ecosystem change because it responded predictably to both long-term and short-term disturbance and, when coupled with soil, plant, and disturbance history variables, can reveal land condition trends. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Accelerated characterization of graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffith, W. I.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

1980-01-01

A method to predict the long term compliance of unidirectional off-axis laminates from short term laboratory tests is presented. The method uses an orthotropic transformation equation and the time-stress-temperature superposition principle. Short term tests are used to construct master curves for two off-axis unidirectional laminates with fiber angles of 10 and 90 degrees. Analytical predictions of long term compliance for 30 and 60 degrees laminates are made. Comparisons with experimental data are also given.

A probabilistic approach to photovoltaic generator performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khallat, M. A.; Rahman, S.

1986-09-01

A method for predicting the performance of a photovoltaic (PV) generator based on long term climatological data and expected cell performance is described. The equations for cell model formulation are provided. Use of the statistical model for characterizing the insolation level is discussed. The insolation data is fitted to appropriate probability distribution functions (Weibull, beta, normal). The probability distribution functions are utilized to evaluate the capacity factors of PV panels or arrays. An example is presented revealing the applicability of the procedure.

Brain and cognitive-behavioural development after asphyxia at term birth.

PubMed

de Haan, Michelle; Wyatt, John S; Roth, Simon; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh; Gadian, David; Mishkin, Mortimer

2006-07-01

Perinatal asphyxia occurs in approximately 1-6 per 1000 live full-term births. Different patterns of brain damage can result, though the relation of these patterns to long-term cognitive-behavioural outcome remains under investigation. The hippocampus is one brain region that can be damaged (typically not in isolation), and this site of damage has been implicated in two different long-term outcomes, cognitive memory impairment and the psychiatric disorder schizophrenia. Factors in addition to the acute episode of asphyxia likely contribute to these specific outcomes, making prediction difficult. Future studies that better document long-term cognitive-behavioural outcome, quantitatively identify patterns of brain injury over development and consider additional variables that may modulate the impact of asphyxia on cognitive and behavioural function will forward the goals of predicting long-term outcome and understanding the mechanisms by which it unfolds.

Blood glucose level prediction based on support vector regression using mobile platforms.

PubMed

Reymann, Maximilian P; Dorschky, Eva; Groh, Benjamin H; Martindale, Christine; Blank, Peter; Eskofier, Bjoern M

2016-08-01

The correct treatment of diabetes is vital to a patient's health: Staying within defined blood glucose levels prevents dangerous short- and long-term effects on the body. Mobile devices informing patients about their future blood glucose levels could enable them to take counter-measures to prevent hypo or hyper periods. Previous work addressed this challenge by predicting the blood glucose levels using regression models. However, these approaches required a physiological model, representing the human body's response to insulin and glucose intake, or are not directly applicable to mobile platforms (smart phones, tablets). In this paper, we propose an algorithm for mobile platforms to predict blood glucose levels without the need for a physiological model. Using an online software simulator program, we trained a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model and exported the parameter settings to our mobile platform. The prediction accuracy of our mobile platform was evaluated with pre-recorded data of a type 1 diabetes patient. The blood glucose level was predicted with an error of 19 % compared to the true value. Considering the permitted error of commercially used devices of 15 %, our algorithm is the basis for further development of mobile prediction algorithms.

Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

PubMed

Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

2006-02-01

The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

Forecasting long-term acorn production with and without oak decline using forest inventory data

Treesearch

Cathryn H. Greenberg; Chad E. Keyser; Leah C. Rathburn; Anita K. Rose; Todd M. Fearer; Henry W. McNab

2013-01-01

Acorns are important as wildlife food and for oak regeneration, but production is highly variable, posing a challenge to forest managers targeting acorn production levels. Forest managers need tools to predict acorn production capability tailored to individual landscapes and forest management scenarios, adjusting for oak mortality and stand development over time. We...

The Long-Term Effects of War Experiences on Children's Depression in the Republic of Croatia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brajsa-Zganec, A.

2005-01-01

Objective:: The aim of the study was to investigate whether different levels of depressive symptoms in early adolescent boys and girls could be predicted on the basis of war experiences, perceived available social support (instrumental support, support to self-esteem, belonging and acceptance) and extraversion. Methods:: The sample consisted of…

Rating curve estimation of nutrient loads in Iowa rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stenback, G.A.; Crumpton, W.G.; Schilling, K.E.; Helmers, M.J.

2011-01-01

Accurate estimation of nutrient loads in rivers and streams is critical for many applications including determination of sources of nutrient loads in watersheds, evaluating long-term trends in loads, and estimating loading to downstream waterbodies. Since in many cases nutrient concentrations are measured on a weekly or monthly frequency, there is a need to estimate concentration and loads during periods when no data is available. The objectives of this study were to: (i) document the performance of a multiple regression model to predict loads of nitrate and total phosphorus (TP) in Iowa rivers and streams; (ii) determine whether there is any systematic bias in the load prediction estimates for nitrate and TP; and (iii) evaluate streamflow and concentration factors that could affect the load prediction efficiency. A commonly cited rating curve regression is utilized to estimate riverine nitrate and TP loads for rivers in Iowa with watershed areas ranging from 17.4 to over 34,600km2. Forty-nine nitrate and 44 TP datasets each comprising 5-22years of approximately weekly to monthly concentrations were examined. Three nitrate data sets had sample collection frequencies averaging about three samples per week. The accuracy and precision of annual and long term riverine load prediction was assessed by direct comparison of rating curve load predictions with observed daily loads. Significant positive bias of annual and long term nitrate loads was detected. Long term rating curve nitrate load predictions exceeded observed loads by 25% or more at 33% of the 49 measurement sites. No bias was found for TP load prediction although 15% of the 44 cases either underestimated or overestimate observed long-term loads by more than 25%. The rating curve was found to poorly characterize nitrate and phosphorus variation in some rivers. ?? 2010 .

Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP): Towards Predicting Next Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imada, S.; Iijima, H.; Hotta, H.; Shiota, D.; Kanou, O.; Fujiyama, M.; Kusano, K.

2016-10-01

It is believed that the longer-term variations of the solar activity can affect the Earth's climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the "solar-terrestrial environment". To build prediction schemes for the activity level of the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Although three-years prediction can be almost achieved, the prediction of next solar cycle is very limited, so far. We are developing a five-years prediction scheme by combining the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model and the most accurate measurements of solar magnetic fields as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction),. We estimate the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters are used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle. We also report the present status and the future perspective of our project.

Validation of the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) pulmonary hypertension prediction model in a unique population and utility in the prediction of long-term survival.

PubMed

Cogswell, Rebecca; Kobashigawa, Erin; McGlothlin, Dana; Shaw, Robin; De Marco, Teresa

2012-11-01

The Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial (PAH) Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) model was designed to predict 1-year survival in patients with PAH. Multivariate prediction models need to be evaluated in cohorts distinct from the derivation set to determine external validity. In addition, limited data exist on the utility of this model in the prediction of long-term survival. REVEAL model performance was assessed to predict 1-year and 5-year outcomes, defined as survival or composite survival or freedom from lung transplant, in 140 patients with PAH. The validation cohort had a higher proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (7.9% vs 1.9%, p < 0.0001), methamphetamine use (19.3% vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001), and portal hypertension PAH (16.4% vs 5.1%, p < 0.0001) compared with the development cohort. The C-index of the model to predict survival was 0.765 at 1 year and 0.712 at 5 years of follow-up. The C-index of the model to predict composite survival or freedom from lung transplant was 0.805 and 0.724 at 1 and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. Prediction by the model, however, was weakest among patients with intermediate-risk predicted survival. The REVEAL model had adequate discrimination to predict 1-year survival in this small but clinically distinct validation cohort. Although the model also had predictive ability out to 5 years, prediction was limited among patients of intermediate risk, suggesting our prediction methods can still be improved. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Forward Inferences: From Activation to Long-Term Memory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klin, Celia M.; Murray, John D.; Levine, William H.; Guzman, Alexandria E.

1999-01-01

Investigates the extent to which forward inferences are activated and encoded during reading, as well as their prevalence and their time course. Finds that inferences were encoded and retained in working memory in both high- and low-predictability conditions, and that high-predictability forward inferences were encoded into long-term memory.…

Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

2013-01-01

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

PubMed Central

Fox, Naomi J.; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S.; White, Piran C. L.; Hutchings, Michael R.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary Parasitic helminths represent one of the most pervasive challenges to livestock, and their intensity and distribution will be influenced by climate change. There is a need for long-term predictions to identify potential risks and highlight opportunities for control. We explore the approaches to modelling future helminth risk to livestock under climate change. One of the limitations to model creation is the lack of purpose driven data collection. We also conclude that models need to include a broad view of the livestock system to generate meaningful predictions. Abstract Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed. PMID:26486780

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data

Treesearch

Brooke L. Bateman; Anna M. Pidgeon; Volker C. Radeloff; Curtis H. Flather; Jeremy VanDerWal; H. Resit Akcakaya; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Thomas P. Albright; Stephen J. Vavrus; Patricia J. Heglund

2016-01-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in...

Profibrogenic chemokines and viral evolution predict rapid progression of hepatitis C to cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Farci, Patrizia; Wollenberg, Kurt; Diaz, Giacomo; Engle, Ronald E.; Lai, Maria Eliana; Klenerman, Paul; Purcell, Robert H.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Alter, Harvey J.

2012-01-01

Chronic hepatitis C may follow a mild and stable disease course or progress rapidly to cirrhosis and liver-related death. The mechanisms underlying the different rates of disease progression are unknown. Using serial, prospectively collected samples from cases of transfusion-associated hepatitis C, we identified outcome-specific features that predict long-term disease severity. Slowly progressing disease correlated with an early alanine aminotransferase peak and antibody seroconversion, transient control of viremia, and significant induction of IFN-γ and MIP-1β, all indicative of an effective, albeit insufficient, adaptive immune response. By contrast, rapidly progressive disease correlated with persistent and significant elevations of alanine aminotransferase and the profibrogenic chemokine MCP-1 (CCL-2), greater viral diversity and divergence, and a higher rate of synonymous substitution. This study suggests that the long-term course of chronic hepatitis C is determined early in infection and that disease severity is predicted by the evolutionary dynamics of hepatitis C virus and the level of MCP-1, a chemokine that appears critical to the induction of progressive fibrogenesis and, ultimately, the ominous complications of cirrhosis. PMID:22829669

Profibrogenic chemokines and viral evolution predict rapid progression of hepatitis C to cirrhosis.

PubMed

Farci, Patrizia; Wollenberg, Kurt; Diaz, Giacomo; Engle, Ronald E; Lai, Maria Eliana; Klenerman, Paul; Purcell, Robert H; Pybus, Oliver G; Alter, Harvey J

2012-09-04

Chronic hepatitis C may follow a mild and stable disease course or progress rapidly to cirrhosis and liver-related death. The mechanisms underlying the different rates of disease progression are unknown. Using serial, prospectively collected samples from cases of transfusion-associated hepatitis C, we identified outcome-specific features that predict long-term disease severity. Slowly progressing disease correlated with an early alanine aminotransferase peak and antibody seroconversion, transient control of viremia, and significant induction of IFN-γ and MIP-1β, all indicative of an effective, albeit insufficient, adaptive immune response. By contrast, rapidly progressive disease correlated with persistent and significant elevations of alanine aminotransferase and the profibrogenic chemokine MCP-1 (CCL-2), greater viral diversity and divergence, and a higher rate of synonymous substitution. This study suggests that the long-term course of chronic hepatitis C is determined early in infection and that disease severity is predicted by the evolutionary dynamics of hepatitis C virus and the level of MCP-1, a chemokine that appears critical to the induction of progressive fibrogenesis and, ultimately, the ominous complications of cirrhosis.

Does affective organizational commitment and experience of meaning at work predict long-term sickness absence? An analysis of register-based outcomes using pooled data on 61,302 observations in four occupational groups.

PubMed

Clausen, Thomas; Burr, Hermann; Borg, Vilhelm

2014-02-01

To investigate whether experience of low meaning at work (MAW) and low affective organizational commitment (AOC) predicts long-term sickness absence (LTSA) for more than 3 consecutive weeks and whether this association is dependent on the occupational group. Survey data pooling 61,302 observations were fitted to the DREAM register containing information on payments of sickness absence compensation. Using multiadjusted Cox regression, observations were followed for an 18-month follow-up period to assess the risk for LTSA. Low levels of MAW and AOC significantly increased the risk for LTSA during follow-up. Subgroup analyses showed that associations were statistically significant for employees working with clients and office workers but not for employees working with customers and manual workers. Further analyses showed that associations between MAW and LTSA varied significantly across the four occupational groups. Meaning at work and affective organizational commitment significantly predict LTSA. Promoting MAW and AOC may contribute toward reducing LTSA in contemporary workplaces.

Persistence of antibodies 20 y after vaccination with a combined hepatitis A and B vaccine

PubMed Central

Van Damme, Pierre; Leroux-Roels, Geert; Suryakiran, P.; Folschweiller, Nicolas; Van Der Meeren, Olivier

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Vaccination is the most effective and well-tolerated method of conferring long-term protection against hepatitis A and B viruses (HAV; HBV). Long-term studies are required to characterize the duration of protection and need for boosters. Following primary immunization of 150 and 157 healthy adults with 3-doses of combined hepatitis A/hepatitis B vaccine (HAB; Twinrix™, GSK Vaccines, Belgium) at 0-1-6 months in 2 separate studies, we measured vaccine-induced antibody persistence against HAV and HBV annually for 20 y (Study A: NCT01000324; Study B: NCT01037114). Subjects with circulating anti-HAV antibodies < 15 mIU/mL or with anti-hepatitis B surface antigen < 10 mIU/mL were offered an additional monovalent hepatitis A and/or B vaccine dose (Havrix™/Engerix™-B, GSK Vaccines, Belgium). Applying the immunogenicity results from these studies, mathematical modeling predicted long-term persistence. After 20 y, 18 and 25 subjects in studies A and B, respectively, comprised the long-term according-to-protocol cohort for immunogenicity; 100% and 96.0% retained anti-HAV antibodies ≥ 15 mIU/mL, respectively; 94.4% and 92.0% had anti-HBs antibodies ≥ 10 mIU/mL, respectively. Between Years 16–20, 4 subjects who received a challenge dose of monovalent hepatitis A vaccine (N = 2) or hepatitis B vaccine (N = 2), all mounted a strong anamnestic response suggestive of immune memory despite low antibody levels. Mathematical modeling predicts that 40 y after vaccination ≥ 97% vaccinees will maintain anti-HAV ≥ 15 mIU/mL and ≥ 50% vaccinees will retain anti-HBs ≥ 10 mIU/mL. Immunogenicity data confirm that primary immunization with 3-doses of HAB induces persisting anti-HAV and anti-HBs specific antibodies in most adults for up to 20 y; mathematical modeling predicts even longer-term protection. PMID:28281907

Persistence of antibodies 20 y after vaccination with a combined hepatitis A and B vaccine.

PubMed

Van Damme, Pierre; Leroux-Roels, Geert; Suryakiran, P; Folschweiller, Nicolas; Van Der Meeren, Olivier

2017-05-04

Vaccination is the most effective and well-tolerated method of conferring long-term protection against hepatitis A and B viruses (HAV; HBV). Long-term studies are required to characterize the duration of protection and need for boosters. Following primary immunization of 150 and 157 healthy adults with 3-doses of combined hepatitis A/hepatitis B vaccine (HAB; Twinrix™, GSK Vaccines, Belgium) at 0-1-6 months in 2 separate studies, we measured vaccine-induced antibody persistence against HAV and HBV annually for 20 y (Study A: NCT01000324; Study B: NCT01037114). Subjects with circulating anti-HAV antibodies < 15 mIU/mL or with anti-hepatitis B surface antigen < 10 mIU/mL were offered an additional monovalent hepatitis A and/or B vaccine dose (Havrix™/Engerix™-B, GSK Vaccines, Belgium). Applying the immunogenicity results from these studies, mathematical modeling predicted long-term persistence. After 20 y, 18 and 25 subjects in studies A and B, respectively, comprised the long-term according-to-protocol cohort for immunogenicity; 100% and 96.0% retained anti-HAV antibodies ≥ 15 mIU/mL, respectively; 94.4% and 92.0% had anti-HBs antibodies ≥ 10 mIU/mL, respectively. Between Years 16-20, 4 subjects who received a challenge dose of monovalent hepatitis A vaccine (N = 2) or hepatitis B vaccine (N = 2), all mounted a strong anamnestic response suggestive of immune memory despite low antibody levels. Mathematical modeling predicts that 40 y after vaccination ≥ 97% vaccinees will maintain anti-HAV ≥ 15 mIU/mL and ≥ 50% vaccinees will retain anti-HBs ≥ 10 mIU/mL. Immunogenicity data confirm that primary immunization with 3-doses of HAB induces persisting anti-HAV and anti-HBs specific antibodies in most adults for up to 20 y; mathematical modeling predicts even longer-term protection.

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (phase 2) : Blue Ridge and Western Piedmont provinces.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-03-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

Performance of the Prognocean Plus system during the El Niño 2015/2016: predictions of sea level anomalies as tools for forecasting El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Świerczyńska-Chlaściak, Małgorzata; Niedzielski, Tomasz; Miziński, Bartłomiej

2017-04-01

The aim of this paper is to present the performance of the Prognocean Plus system, which produces long-term predictions of sea level anomalies, during the El Niño 2015/2016. The main objective of work is to identify such ocean areas in which long-term forecasts of sea level anomalies during El Niño 2015/2016 reveal a considerable accuracy. At present, the system produces prognoses using four data-based models and their combinations: polynomial-harmonic model, autoregressive model, threshold autoregressive model and multivariate autoregressive model. The system offers weekly forecasts, with lead time up to 12 weeks. Several statistics that describe the efficiency of the available prediction models in four seasons used for estimating Oceanic Niño index (ONI) are calculated. The accuracies/skills of the predicting models were computed in the specific locations in the equatorial Pacific, namely the geometrically-determined central points of all Niño regions. For the said locations, we focused on the forecasts which targeted at the local maximum of sea level, driven by the El Niño 2015/2016. As a result, a series of the "spaghetti" graphs (for each point, season and model) as well as plots presenting the prognostic performance of every model - for all lead times, seasons and locations - were created. It is found that the Prognocean Plus system has a potential to become a new solution which may enhance the diagnostic discussions on the El Niño development. The forecasts produced by the threshold autoregressive model, for lead times of 5-6 weeks and 9 weeks, within the Niño1+2 region for the November-to-January (NDJ) season anticipated the culmination of the El Niño 2015/2016. The longest forecasts (8-12 weeks) were found to be the most accurate in the phase of transition from El Niño to normal conditions (the multivariate autoregressive model, central point of Niño1+2 region, the December-to-February season). The study was conducted to verify the ability and usefulness of sea level anomaly forecasts in predicting phenomena that are controlled by the ocean-atmosphere processes, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation. The results may support further investigations into long-term forecasting of the quantitative indices of these oscillations, solely based on prognoses of sea level change. In particular, comparing the accuracies of prognoses of the North Atlantic Oscillation index remains one of the tasks of the research project no. 2016/21/N/ST10/03231, financed by the National Science Center of Poland.

Long-term risk of mental health problems in women experiencing preterm birth: a longitudinal study of 29 mothers.

PubMed

Misund, Aud R; Nerdrum, Per; Bråten, Stein; Pripp, Are Hugo; Diseth, Trond H

2013-10-31

Several studies have reported significantly higher stress levels, both short and long terms, among mothers giving preterm birth compared with mothers giving birth at term. Stress, however, is a psychological phenomenon that may present as anxiety, depression and/or trauma reactions. In this study, the long-term mental health outcomes and the prevalence of anxiety, depression and trauma reactions in women experiencing preterm birth were explored. Interactional, main effect variables and predictors were identified. Twenty-nine mothers of 35 premature children born before the 33rd week of pregnancy were assessed within 2 weeks postpartum (T0), 2 weeks after hospitalization (T1), 6 months post-term (T2), and 18 months post-term (T3). The standardized psychometric methods Impact of Event Scale (IES), General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) and State Anxiety Inventory (STAI-X1) assessed the maternal mental health outcomes. The maternal mental health problems except state anxiety decreased from T0 to T1, but remained high and stable at T3. The prevalence of posttraumatic stress reactions (PTSR) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) at T0 and T3 was 52% and 23%, respectively. We identified the time period between T0 and T1 to have a significant main effect on mental health outcomes. The predictors of higher levels of mental health problems were preeclampsia, previous psychological treatment, age, trait anxiety and infant's postnatal intraventricular haemorrhage. Bleeding in pregnancy predicted lower levels of mental health problems. The prevalence of maternal mental health problems remained high, emphasizing the importance of effective interventions.

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ives, A.R.

1995-04-01

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be appliedmore » with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Brain biomarkers and pre-injury cognition are associated with long-term cognitive outcome in children with traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Amy A; Dennis, Maureen; Simic, Nevena; Taylor, Margot J; Morgan, Benjamin R; Frndova, Helena; Choong, Karen; Campbell, Craig; Fraser, Douglas; Anderson, Vicki; Guerguerian, Anne-Marie; Schachar, Russell; Hutchison, Jamie

2017-07-24

Children with traumatic brain injury (TBI) are frequently at risk of long-term impairments of attention and executive functioning but these problems are difficult to predict. Although deficits have been reported to vary with injury severity, age at injury and sex, prognostication of outcome remains imperfect at a patient-specific level. The objective of this proof of principle study was to evaluate a variety of patient variables, along with six brain-specific and inflammatory serum protein biomarkers, as predictors of long-term cognitive outcome following paediatric TBI. Outcome was assessed in 23 patients via parent-rated questionnaires related to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and executive functioning, using the Conners 3rd Edition Rating Scales (Conners-3) and Behaviour Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF) at a mean time since injury of 3.1 years. Partial least squares (PLS) analyses were performed to identify factors measured at the time of injury that were most closely associated with outcome on (1) the Conners-3 and (2) the Behavioural Regulation Index (BRI) and (3) Metacognition Index (MI) of the BRIEF. Higher levels of neuron specific enolase (NSE) and lower levels of soluble neuron cell adhesion molecule (sNCAM) were associated with higher scores on the inattention, hyperactivity/impulsivity and executive functioning scales of the Conners-3, as well as working memory and initiate scales of the MI from the BRIEF. Higher levels of NSE only were associated with higher scores on the inhibit scale of the BRI. NSE and sNCAM show promise as reliable, early predictors of long-term attention-related and executive functioning problems following paediatric TBI.

Accelerated characterization of graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffith, W. I.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

1980-01-01

A method to predict the long-term compliance of unidirectional off-axis laminates from short-term laboratory tests is presented. The method uses an orthotropic transformation equation and the time-stress-temperature superposition principle. Short-term tests are used to construct master curves for two off-axis unidirectional laminates with fiber angles of 10 deg and 90 deg. In addition, analytical predictions of long-term compliance for 30 deg and 60 deg laminates are made. Comparisons with experimental data are also given.

New reporting procedures based on long-term method detection levels and some considerations for interpretations of water-quality data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Childress, Carolyn J. Oblinger; Foreman, William T.; Connor, Brooke F.; Maloney, Thomas J.

1999-01-01

This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory?s approach for determining long-term method detection levels and establishing reporting levels, details relevant new reporting conventions, and provides preliminary guidance on interpreting data reported with the new conventions. At the long-term method detection level concentration, the risk of a false positive detection (analyte reported present at the long-term method detection level when not in sample) is no more than 1 percent. However, at the long-term method detection level, the risk of a false negative occurrence (analyte reported not present when present at the long-term method detection level concentration) is up to 50 percent. Because this false negative rate is too high for use as a default 'less than' reporting level, a more reliable laboratory reporting level is set at twice the determined long-term method detection level. For all methods, concentrations measured between the laboratory reporting level and the long-term method detection level will be reported as estimated concentrations. Non-detections will be censored to the laboratory reporting level. Adoption of the new reporting conventions requires a full understanding of how low-concentration data can be used and interpreted and places responsibility for using and presenting final data with the user rather than with the laboratory. Users must consider that (1) new laboratory reporting levels may differ from previously established minimum reporting levels, (2) long-term method detection levels and laboratory reporting levels may change over time, and (3) estimated concentrations are less certain than concentrations reported above the laboratory reporting level. The availability of uncensored but qualified low-concentration data for interpretation and statistical analysis is a substantial benefit to the user. A decision to censor data after they are reported from the laboratory may still be made by the user, if merited, on the basis of the intended use of the data.

Incorporating Infrastructure and Vegetation Effects on Sea Level Rise Predictions in Low-Gradient Coastal Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, J. F.; Sandi Rojas, S.; Trivisonno, F.; Saco, P. M.; Riccardi, G.

2015-12-01

At the regional and global scales, coastal management and planning for future sea level rise scenarios is typically supported by modelling tools that predict the expected inundation extent. These tools rely on a number of simplifying assumptions that, in some cases, may result in important overestimation or underestimation of the inundation extent. One of such cases is coastal wetlands, where vegetation strongly affects both the magnitude and the timing of inundation. Many coastal wetlands display other forms of flow restrictions due to, for example, infrastructure or drainage works, which also alters the inundation patterns. In this contribution we explore the effects of flow restrictions on inundation patterns under sea level rise conditions in coastal wetlands. We use a dynamic wetland evolution model that not only incorporates the effects of flow restrictions due to culverts, bridges and weirs as well as vegetation, but also considers that vegetation changes as a consequence of increasing inundation. We apply our model to a coastal wetland in Australia and compare predictions of our model to predictions using conventional approaches. We found that some restrictions accentuate detrimental effects of sea level rise while others moderate them. We also found that some management strategies based on flow redistribution that provide short term solution may result more damaging in the long term if sea level rise is considered.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S; White, Piran C L; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-03-06

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

Using VAPEPS for noise control on Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badilla, Gloria; Bergen, Thomas; Scharton, Terry

1991-01-01

Noise environmental control is an important design consideration for Space Station Freedom (SSF), both for crew safety and productivity. Acoustic noise requirements are established to eliminate fatigue and potential hearing loss by crew members from long-term exposure and to facilitate speech communication. VAPEPS (VibroAcoustic Payload Environment Prediction System) is currently being applied to SSF for prediction of the on-orbit noise and vibration environments induced in the 50 to 10,000 Hz frequency range. Various sources such as fans, pumps, centrifuges, exercise equipment, and other mechanical devices are used in the analysis. The predictions will be used in design tradeoff studies and to provide confidence that requirements will be met. Preliminary predictions show that the required levels will be exceeded unless substantial noise control measures are incorporated in the SSF design. Predicted levels for an SSF design without acoustic control treatments exceed requirements by 25 dB in some one-third octave frequency bands.

Early Postimplant Speech Perception and Language Skills Predict Long-Term Language and Neurocognitive Outcomes Following Pediatric Cochlear Implantation

PubMed Central

Kronenberger, William G.; Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B.

2017-01-01

Purpose We sought to determine whether speech perception and language skills measured early after cochlear implantation in children who are deaf, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language skills, predict long-term speech perception, language, and neurocognitive outcomes. Method Thirty-six long-term users of cochlear implants, implanted at an average age of 3.4 years, completed measures of speech perception, language, and executive functioning an average of 14.4 years postimplantation. Speech perception and language skills measured in the 1st and 2nd years postimplantation and open-set word recognition measured in the 3rd and 4th years postimplantation were obtained from a research database in order to assess predictive relations with long-term outcomes. Results Speech perception and language skills at 6 and 18 months postimplantation were correlated with long-term outcomes for language, verbal working memory, and parent-reported executive functioning. Open-set word recognition was correlated with early speech perception and language skills and long-term speech perception and language outcomes. Hierarchical regressions showed that early speech perception and language skills at 6 months postimplantation and growth in these skills from 6 to 18 months both accounted for substantial variance in long-term outcomes for language and verbal working memory that was not explained by conventional demographic and hearing factors. Conclusion Speech perception and language skills measured very early postimplantation, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language, may be clinically relevant markers of long-term language and neurocognitive outcomes in users of cochlear implants. Supplemental materials https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.5216200 PMID:28724130

Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

Recalibration and predictive reliability of a solute-transport model of an irrigated stream-aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, M.; Konikow, Leonard F.

1986-01-01

A solute-transport model of an irrigated stream-aquifer system was recalibrated because of discrepancies between prior predictions of ground-water salinity trends during 1971-1982 and the observed outcome in February 1982. The original model was calibrated with a 1-year record of data collected during 1971-1972 in an 18-km reach of the Arkansas River Valley in southeastern Colorado. The model is improved by incorporating additional hydrologic processes (salt transport through the unsaturated zone) and through reexamination of the reliability of some input data (regression relationship used to estimate salinity from specific conductance data). Extended simulations using the recalibrated model are made to investigate the usefulness of the model for predicting long-term trends of salinity and water levels within the study area. Predicted ground-water levels during 1971-1982 are in good agreement with the observed, indicating that the original 1971-1972 study period was sufficient to calibrate the flow model. However, long-term simulations using the recalibrated model based on recycling the 1971-1972 data alone yield an average ground-water salinity for 1982 that is too low by about 10%. Simulations that incorporate observed surface-water salinity variations yield better results, in that the calculated average ground-water salinity for 1982 is within 3% of the observed value. Statistical analysis of temporal salinity variations of the applied surface water indicates that at least a 4-year sampling period is needed to accurately calibrate the transport model. ?? 1986.

Technical reference for the use of the slow crack growth test for modeling and predicting the long-term performance of polyethylene gas pipes. Final report, March 1987-May 1992. Volume 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kanninen, M.F.; O'Donoghue, P.E.; Popelar, C.F.

1993-02-01

The project was undertaken for the purposes of quantifying the Battelle slow crack growth (SCG) test for predicting long-term performance of polyethylene gas distribution pipes, and of demonstrating the applicability of the methodology for use by the gas industry for accelerated characterization testing, thereby bringing the SCG test development effort to a closure. The work has revealed that the Battelle SCG test, and the linear fracture mechanics interpretation that it currently utilizes, is valid for a class of PE materials. The long-term performance of these materials in various operating conditions can therefore be effectively predicted.

Long-term persistence of protective antibodies in Dutch adolescents following a meningococcal serogroup C tetanus booster vaccination.

PubMed

van Ravenhorst, Mariëtte B; Marinovic, Axel Bonacic; van der Klis, Fiona R M; van Rooijen, Debbie M; van Maurik, Marjan; Stoof, Susanne P; Sanders, Elisabeth A M; Berbers, Guy A M

2016-12-07

Due to waning immunity, infant vaccination with meningococcal serogroup C conjugated (MenCC) vaccines is insufficient to maintain long-term individual protection. Adolescent booster vaccination is thought to offer direct protection against invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) but also to reduce meningococcal carriage and transmission and in this way establish herd protection in the population. Previously, we studied antibody levels after adolescent MenCC booster vaccination. In the present study, the adolescent vaccinees were revisited after three years to determine antibody persistence and to predict long-term protection. Meningococcal serogroup C tetanus toxoid conjugated (MenC-TT) vaccine was administered to 10-, 12- and 15-year old participants who had been primed nine years earlier with a single dose of MenC-TT vaccine. Blood samples were collected before, 1month, 1year and 3years after the adolescent booster vaccination. Functional antibody levels were measured with serum bactericidal assay using rabbit complement (rSBA). Meningococcal serogroup C polysaccharide and tetanus toxoid specific antibody levels were measured using fluorescent-bead-based multiplex immunoassay. Long-term protection was estimated using longitudinal multilevel antibody decay modeling. Of the original 268 participants, 201 (75%) were revisited after 3years. All participants still had an rSBA titer above the protective threshold of ⩾8 and 98% ⩾128. The 15-year-olds showed the highest antibody titers. Using a bi-exponential decay model, the median time to fall below the protection threshold (rSBA titer <8) was 16.3years, 45.9years and around 270years following the booster for the 10-, 12- and 15-year-olds, respectively. After a first steep decline in antibody levels in the first year after the booster, antibody levels slowly declined between one and three years post-booster. A routine MenC-TT booster vaccination for adolescents in the Netherlands will likely provide long-term individual protection and potentially reduce the risk of resurgence of MenC disease in the general population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-Temporal Decomposed Wind and Load Power Models for Electric Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Karim, Noha

This thesis is motivated by the recognition that sources of uncertainties in electric power systems are multifold and may have potentially far-reaching effects. In the past, only system load forecast was considered to be the main challenge. More recently, however, the uncertain price of electricity and hard-to-predict power produced by renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are making the operating and planning environment much more challenging. The near-real-time power imbalances are compensated by means of frequency regulation and generally require fast-responding costly resources. Because of this, a more accurate forecast and look-ahead scheduling would result in a reduced need for expensive power balancing. Similarly, long-term planning and seasonal maintenance need to take into account long-term demand forecast as well as how the short-term generation scheduling is done. The better the demand forecast, the more efficient planning will be as well. Moreover, computer algorithms for scheduling and planning are essential in helping the system operators decide what to schedule and planners what to build. This is needed given the overall complexity created by different abilities to adjust the power output of generation technologies, demand uncertainties and by the network delivery constraints. Given the growing presence of major uncertainties, it is likely that the main control applications will use more probabilistic approaches. Today's predominantly deterministic methods will be replaced by methods which account for key uncertainties as decisions are made. It is well-understood that although demand and wind power cannot be predicted at very high accuracy, taking into consideration predictions and scheduling in a look-ahead way over several time horizons generally results in more efficient and reliable utilization, than when decisions are made assuming deterministic, often worst-case scenarios. This change is in approach is going to ultimately require new electricity market rules capable of providing the right incentives to manage uncertainties and of differentiating various technologies according to the rate at which they can respond to ever changing conditions. Given the overall need for modeling uncertainties in electric energy systems, we consider in this thesis the problem of multi-temporal modeling of wind and demand power, in particular. Historic data is used to derive prediction models for several future time horizons. Short-term prediction models derived can be used for look-ahead economic dispatch and unit commitment, while the long-term annual predictive models can be used for investment planning. As expected, the accuracy of such predictive models depends on the time horizons over which the predictions are made, as well as on the nature of uncertain signals. It is shown that predictive models obtained using the same general modeling approaches result in different accuracy for wind than for demand power. In what follows, we introduce several models which have qualitatively different patterns, ranging from hourly to annual. We first transform historic time-stamped data into the Fourier Transform (Fr) representation. The frequency domain data representation is used to decompose the wind and load power signals and to derive predictive models relevant for short-term and long-term predictions using extracted spectral techniques. The short-term results are interpreted next as a Linear Prediction Coding Model (LPC) and its accuracy is analyzed. Next, a new Markov-Based Sensitivity Model (MBSM) for short term prediction has been proposed and the dispatched costs of uncertainties for different predictive models with comparisons have been developed. Moreover, the Discrete Markov Process (DMP) representation is applied to help assess probabilities of most likely short-, medium- and long-term states and the related multi-temporal risks. In addition, this thesis discusses operational impacts of wind power integration in different scenario levels by performing more than 9,000 AC Optimal Power Flow runs. The effects of both wind and load variations on system constraints and costs are presented. The limitations of DC Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) vs. ACOPF are emphasized by means of system convergence problems due to the effect of wind power on changing line flows and net power injections. By studying the effect of having wind power on line flows, we found that the divergence problem applies in areas with high wind and hydro generation capacity share (cheap generations). (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (phase 3, part I) : urban streams in the Piedmont Plateau province.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

PubMed

Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

2016-02-01

Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L. hyperborea. Because no genetic baseline is currently available for this species, our results may represent a first step in informing conservation and mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrospective study of long-term outcome after brain arteriovenous malformation rupture: the RAP score.

PubMed

Shotar, Eimad; Debarre, Matthieu; Sourour, Nader-Antoine; Di Maria, Federico; Gabrieli, Joseph; Nouet, Aurélien; Chiras, Jacques; Degos, Vincent; Clarençon, Frédéric

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE The authors aimed to design a score for stratifying patients with brain arteriovenous malformation (BAVM) rupture, based on the likelihood of a poor long-term neurological outcome. METHODS The records of consecutive patients with BAVM hemorrhagic events who had been admitted over a period of 11 years were retrospectively reviewed. Independent predictors of a poor long-term outcome (modified Rankin Scale score ≥ 3) beyond 1 year after admission were identified. A risk stratification scale was developed and compared with the intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) score to predict poor outcome and inpatient mortality. RESULTS One hundred thirty-five patients with 139 independent hemorrhagic events related to BAVM rupture were included in this analysis. Multivariate logistic regression followed by stepwise analysis showed that consciousness level according to the Glasgow Coma Scale (OR 6.5, 95% CI 3.1-13.7, p < 10 -3 ), hematoma volume (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.8, p = 0.005), and intraventricular hemorrhage (OR 7.5, 95% CI 2.66-21, p < 10 -3 ) were independently associated with a poor outcome. A 12-point scale for ruptured BAVM prognostication was constructed combining these 3 factors. The score obtained using this new scale, the ruptured AVM prognostic (RAP) score, was a stronger predictor of a poor long-term outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.87, 95% CI 0.8-0.92, p = 0.009) and inpatient mortality (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.95, p = 0.006) than the ICH score. For a RAP score ≥ 6, sensitivity and specificity for predicting poor outcome were 76.8% (95% CI 63.6-87) and 90.8% (95% CI 81.9-96.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The authors propose a new admission score, the RAP score, dedicated to stratifying the risk of poor long-term outcome after BAVM rupture. This easy-to-use scoring system may help to improve communication between health care providers and consistency in clinical research. Only external prospective cohorts and population-based studies will ensure full validation of the RAP scores' capacity to predict outcome after BAVM rupture.

A Comparison of Tension and Compression Creep in a Polymeric Composite and the Effects of Physical Aging on Creep Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Thomas S.; Veazie, David R.; Brinson, L. Catherine

1996-01-01

Experimental and analytical methods were used to investigate the similarities and differences of the effects of physical aging on creep compliance of IM7/K3B composite loaded in tension and compression. Two matrix dominated loading modes, shear and transverse, were investigated for two load cases, tension and compression. The tests, run over a range of sub-glass transition temperatures, provided material constants, material master curves and aging related parameters. Comparing results from the short-term data indicated that although trends in the data with respect to aging time and aging temperature are similar, differences exist due to load direction and mode. The analytical model used for predicting long-term behavior using short-term data as input worked equally as well for the tension or compression loaded cases. Comparison of the loading modes indicated that the predictive model provided more accurate long term predictions for the shear mode as compared to the transverse mode. Parametric studies showed the usefulness of the predictive model as a tool for investigating long-term performance and compliance acceleration due to temperature.

Novel model coupling approach for resilience analysis of coastal plant communities.

PubMed

Schibalski, Anett; Körner, Katrin; Maier, Martin; Jeltsch, Florian; Schröder, Boris

2018-06-04

Resilience is a major research focus covering a wide range of topics from biodiversity conservation to ecosystem (service) management. Model simulations can assess the resilience of, e.g., plant species, measured as the return time to conditions prior to a disturbance. This requires process-based models (PBM) that implement relevant processes like regeneration and reproduction and thus successfully reproduce transient dynamics after disturbances. Such models are often complex and thus limited to either short-term or small-scale applications, whereas many research questions require species predictions across larger spatial and temporal scales. We suggest a framework to couple a PBM and a statistical species distribution model (SDM), which transfers the results of a resilience analysis by the PBM to SDM predictions. The resulting hybrid model combines the advantages of both approaches: the convenient applicability of SDMs and the relevant process detail of PBMs in abrupt environmental change situations. First, we simulate dynamic responses of species communities to a disturbance event with a PBM. We aggregate the response behavior in two resilience metrics: return time and amplitude of the response peak. These metrics are then used to complement long-term SDM projections with dynamic short-term responses to disturbance. To illustrate our framework, we investigate the effect of abrupt short-term groundwater level and salinity changes on coastal vegetation at the German Baltic Sea. We found two example species to be largely resilient, and, consequently, modifications of SDM predictions consisted mostly of smoothing out peaks in the occurrence probability that were not confirmed by the PBM. Discrepancies between SDM- and PBM-predicted species responses were caused by community dynamics simulated in the PBM and absent from the SDM. Although demonstrated with boosted regression trees (SDM) and an existing individual-based model, IBC-grass (PBM), our flexible framework can easily be applied to other PBM and SDM types, as well as other definitions of short-term disturbances or long-term trends of environmental change. Thus, our framework allows accounting for biological feedbacks in the response to short- and long-term environmental changes as a major advancement in predictive vegetation modeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Utilizing Integrated Prediction Error Filter Analysis (INPEFA) to divide base-level cycle of fan-deltas: A case study of the Triassic Baikouquan Formation in Mabei Slope Area, Mahu Depression, Junggar Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Rui; Zhu, Rui; Qu, Jianhua; Wu, Jun; You, Xincai; Sun, Yuqiu; Zhou, Yuanquan (Nancy)

2018-05-01

The Mahu Depression is an important hydrocarbon-bearing foreland sag located at the northwestern margin of the Junggar Basin, China. On the northern slope of the depression, large coarse-grained proximal fan-delta depositional systems developed in the Lower Triassic Baikouquan Formation (T1b). Some lithologic hydrocarbon reservoirs have been found in the conglomerates of the formation since recent years. However, the rapid vertical and horizontal lithology variations make it is difficult to divide the base-level cycle of the formation using the conventional methods. Spectral analysis technologies, such as Integrated Prediction Error Filter Analysis (INPEFA), provide another effective way to overcome this difficultly. In this paper, processed by INPEFA, conventional resistivity logs are utilized to study the base-level cycle of the fan-delta depositional systems. The negative trend of the INPEFA curve indicates the base-level fall semi-cycles, adversely, positive trend suggests the rise semi-cycles. Base-level cycles of Baikouquan Formation are divided in single and correlation wells. One long-term base-level rise semi-cycle, including three medium-term base-level cycles, is identified overall the Baikouquan Formation. The medium-term base-level cycles are characterized as rise semi-cycles mainly in the fan-delta plain, symmetric cycles in the fan-delta front and fall semi-cycles mainly in the pro-fan-delta. The short-term base-level rise semi-cycles most developed in the braided channels, sub-aqueous distributary channels and sheet sands. While, the interdistributary bays and pro-fan-delta mud indicate short-term base-level fall semi-cycles. Finally, based on the method of INPEFA, sequence filling model of Baikouquan formation is established.

Predictors of outcomes and refractoriness in status epilepticus: A prospective study.

PubMed

Atmaca, Murat Mert; Bebek, Nerses; Baykan, Betül; Gökyiğit, Ayşen; Gürses, Candan

2017-10-01

The objective of this study was to determine the predictors of outcomes and refractoriness in status epilepticus (SE). This is a prospective study of 59 adult patients with SE who were admitted to the Emergency Department between February 2012 and December 2013. The effects of clinical, demographic, and electrophysiologic features of patients with SE were evaluated. To evaluate outcome in SE, STESS, mSTESS, and EMSE scales were used. Logistic regression analysis showed that being aged ≥65years (p=0.02, OR: 17.68, 95% CI: [1.6-198.4]) for the short term and having potentially fatal etiology (p=0.027, OR: 11.7, 95% CI: [1.3-103]) for the long term were the only independent predictors of poor outcomes; whereas, the presence of periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs) in EEG was the only independent predictor of refractoriness (p=0.032, OR: 13.7, 95% CI: [1.3-148.5]). The patients with ≥3 Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) did not have poorer outcomes in the short- (p=0.157) and long term (p=0.065). There was no difference between patients with 0-2, 3-4, and ≥4 mSTESS in the short- and long term in terms of outcome (p=0.28 and 0.063, respectively). Also, there was no difference between subgroups (convulsive SE [CSE], nonconvulsive SE [NCSE], and epilepsia partialis continua [EPC]) in terms of STESS and mSTESS. When patients with EPC were excluded, both STESS and mSTESS scores of the patients correlated with poorer long-term outcomes (p=0.025 and 0.017, respectively). The patients with ≥64 points in the Epidemiology-based Mortality in SE-Etiology, age, comorbidity, EEG (EMSE-EACE) score and those with ≥27 points in EMSE-Etiology, age, comorbidity (EMSE-EAC) score did not have poorer outcomes in the short term (p=0.06 and 0.274, respectively) while they had significantly poorer outcome in the long term (p<0.001 and 0.002, respectively). In subgroup analysis, patients with CSE with ≥64 points in EMSE-EACE had significantly poorer outcome in the both short- and long term (p=0.014 and 0.012, respectively), and patients with CSE with ≥27 points in EMSE-EAC had significantly poorer outcome in the long term (p=0.03) but not in the short term (p=0.186). Outcomes did not correlate with EMSE scores in patients with NCSE and EPC. Status epilepticus was terminated with intravenous (IV) levetiracetam (LEV) in 68.75% of patients and with IV phenytoin (PHT) in 83.3% of patients. No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups in terms of efficacy (p=0.334). Being aged ≥65years predicts poor short-term outcomes, and having potentially fatal etiology predicts poor long-term outcomes, which highlight the importance of SE treatment management in the elderly. Both STESS and mSTESS are not predictive for poor outcomes in EPC. Excluding patients with EPC, STESS, and mSTESS could predict poor long-term outcomes but not in the short term in SE. Epidemiology-based Mortality in Status Epilepticus score could predict poor outcome in the long term better than STESS and mSTESS. Specifically, EMSE scores correlated with poor outcome in patients with CSE but not with NCSE and EPC. New scales are needed to predict outcome especially in patients with NCSE and EPC. The presence of PEDs in EEG is a predictor of RSE, and EMSE score can also be used to predict RSE. There was no difference in the efficacy of IV LEV and IV PHT in SE. This study is significant for having one of the longest follow-up periods in the literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sex Differences in the Longitudinal Prediction of Adult Personality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutton-Smith, B.; Rosenberg, B. G.

This paper deals with two sets of data-one that fails to find any long-term sex differences in adults, and another which seems to find such differences. The Berkeley Guidance Study offers longitudinal data in which no variables differentiate between the two sexes at all age levels. From these results, the authors conclude that the normal course of…

CaPTHUS scoring model in primary hyperparathyroidism: can it eliminate the need for ioPTH testing?

PubMed

Elfenbein, Dawn M; Weber, Sara; Schneider, David F; Sippel, Rebecca S; Chen, Herbert

2015-04-01

The CaPTHUS model was reported to have a positive predictive value of 100 % to correctly predict single-gland disease in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism, thus obviating the need for intraoperative parathyroid hormone (ioPTH) testing. We sought to apply the CaPTHUS scoring model in our patient population and assess its utility in predicting long-term biochemical cure. We retrospective reviewed all parathyroidectomies for primary hyperparathyroidism performed at our university hospital from 2003 to 2012. We routinely perform ioPTH testing. Biochemical cure was defined as a normal calcium level at 6 months. A total of 1,421 patients met the inclusion criteria: 78 % of patients had a single adenoma at the time of surgery, 98 % had a normal serum calcium at 1 week postoperatively, and 96 % had a normal serum calcium level 6 months postoperatively. Using the CaPTHUS scoring model, 307 patients (22.5 %) had a score of ≥ 3, with a positive predictive value of 91 % for single adenoma. A CaPTHUS score of ≥ 3 had a positive predictive value of 98 % for biochemical cure at 1 week as well as at 6 months. In our population, where ioPTH testing is used routinely to guide use of bilateral exploration, patients with a preoperative CaPTHUS score of ≥ 3 had good long-term biochemical cure rates. However, the model only predicted adenoma in 91 % of cases. If minimally invasive parathyroidectomy without ioPTH testing had been done for these patients, the cure rate would have dropped from 98 % to an unacceptable 89 %. Even in these patients with high CaPTHUS scores, multigland disease is present in almost 10 %, and ioPTH testing is necessary.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p<0.01). The best cut-off value of HVPG for predicting long-term overall mortality in all patients was 17 mm Hg. The mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 8.9% and 19.2%, respectively: 1.9% and 11.9% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 16.2% and 29.4% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

Development of a near-infrared spectroscopic system for monitoring urine glucose level for the use of long-term home healthcare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Shinobu; Hayakawa, Yuuto; Ogawa, Mitsuhiro; Yamakoshi, Ken-ichi

2010-08-01

We have been developing a new technique for measuring urine glucose concentration using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in conjunction with the Partial Least Square (PLS) method. In the previous study, we reported some results of preliminary experiments for assessing feasibility of this method using a FT-IR spectrometer. In this study, considering practicability of the system, a flow-through cell with the optical path length of 10 mm was newly introduced. Accuracy of the system was verified by the preliminary experiments using urine samples. From the results obtained, it was clearly demonstrated that the present method had a capability of predicting individual urine glucose level with reasonable accuracy (the minimum value of standard error of prediction: SEP = 22.3 mg/dl) and appeared to be a useful means for long-term home health care. However, mean value of SEP obtained by the urine samples from ten subjects was not satisfactorily low (53.7 mg/dl). For improving the accuracy, (1) mechanical stability of the optical system should be improved, (2) the method for normalizing the spectrum should be reconsidered, and (3) the number of subject should be increased.

Costs, mortality likelihood and outcomes of hospitalized US children with traumatic brain injuries.

PubMed

Shi, Junxin; Xiang, Huiyun; Wheeler, Krista; Smith, Gary A; Stallones, Lorann; Groner, Jonathan; Wang, Zengzhen

2009-07-01

To examine the hospitalization costs and discharge outcomes of US children with TBI and to evaluate a severity measure, the predictive mortality likelihood level. Data from the 2006 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Kids' Inpatient Database (KID) were used to report the national estimates and characteristics of TBI-associated hospitalizations among US children < or =20 years of age. The percentage of children with TBI caused by motor vehicle crashes (MVC) and falls was calculated according to the predictive mortality likelihood levels (PMLL), death in hospital and discharge into long-term rehabilitation facilities. Associations with the PMLL, discharge outcomes and average hospital charges were examined. In 2006, there were an estimated 58 900 TBI-associated hospitalizations among US children, accounting for $2.56 billion in hospital charges. MVCs caused 38.9% and falls caused 21.2% of TBI hospitalizations. The PMLL was strongly associated with TBI type, length of hospital stay, hospital charges and discharge disposition. About 4% of children with fall or MVC related TBIs died in hospital and 9% were discharged into long-term facilities. The PMLL may provide a useful tool to assess characteristics and treatment outcomes of hospitalized TBI children, but more research is still needed.

Effects of physical aging on long-term creep of polymers and polymer matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, L. Catherine; Gates, Thomas S.

1994-01-01

For many polymeric materials in use below the glass transition temperature, the long term viscoelastic behavior is greatly affected by physical aging. To use polymer matrix composites as critical structural components in existing and novel technological applications, this long term behavior of the material system must be understood. Towards that end, this study applied the concepts governing the mechanics of physical aging in a consistent manner to the study of laminated composite systems. Even in fiber-dominated lay-ups the effects of physical aging are found to be important in the long-term behavior of the composite. The basic concepts describing physical aging of polymers are discussed. Several aspects of physical aging which have not been previously documented are also explored in this study, namely the effects of aging into equilibrium and a relationship to the time-temperature shift factor. The physical aging theory is then extended to develop the long-term compliance/modulus of a single lamina with varying fiber orientation. The latter is then built into classical lamination theory to predict long-time response of general oriented lamina and laminates. It is illustrated that the long term response can be counterintuitive, stressing the need for consistent modeling efforts to make long term predictions of laminates to be used in structural situations.

Long-term mesocosms study of the effects of ocean acidification on growth and physiology of the sea urchin Echinometra mathaei.

PubMed

Moulin, Laure; Grosjean, Philippe; Leblud, Julien; Batigny, Antoine; Collard, Marie; Dubois, Philippe

2015-02-01

Recent research on the impact of ocean acidification (OA) has highlighted that it is important to conduct long-term experiments including ecosystem interactions in order to better predict the possible effects of elevated pCO2. The goal of the present study was to assess the long-term impact of OA on a suite of physiological parameters of the sea urchin Echinometra mathaei in more realistic food conditions. A long-term experiment was conducted in mesocosms provided with an artificial reef in which the urchins principally fed on algae attached to the reef calcareous substrate. Contrasted pH conditions (pH 7.7 vs control) were established gradually over six months and then maintained for seven more months. Acid-base parameters of the coelomic fluid, growth and respiration rate were monitored throughout the experiment. Results indicate that E. mathaei should be able to regulate its extracellular pH at long-term, through bicarbonate compensation. We suggest that, within sea urchins species, the ability to accumulate bicarbonates is related to their phylogeny but also on the quantity and quality of available food. Growth, respiration rate and mechanical properties of the test were not affected. This ability to resist OA levels expected for 2100 at long-term could determine the future of coral reefs, particularly reefs where E. mathaei is the major bioeroder. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of speech levels in the presence of time varying background noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pearsons, K. S.; Horonjeff, R.

1982-01-01

Short-term speech level measurements which could be used to note changes in vocal effort in a time varying noise environment were studied. Knowing the changes in speech level would in turn allow prediction of intelligibility in the presence of aircraft flyover noise. Tests indicated that it is possible to use two second samples of speech to estimate long term root mean square speech levels. Other tests were also performed in which people read out loud during aircraft flyover noise. Results of these tests indicate that people do indeed raise their voice during flyovers at a rate of about 3-1/2 dB for each 10 dB increase in background level. This finding is in agreement with other tests of speech levels in the presence of steady state background noise.

Low back pain and widespread pain predict sickness absence among industrial workers

PubMed Central

Morken, Tone; Riise, Trond; Moen, Bente; Hauge, Signe HV; Holien, Solrun; Langedrag, Anne; Pedersen, Svein; Saue, Inger Lise L; Seljebø, Guri M; Thoppil, Varughese

2003-01-01

Background The prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) in the aluminium industry is high, and there is a considerable work-related fraction. More knowledge about the predictors of sickness absence from MSD in this industry will be valuable in determining strategies for prevention. The aim of this study was to analyse the relative impact of body parts, psychosocial and individual factors as predictors for short- and long-term sickness absence from MSD among industrial workers. Methods A follow-up study was conducted among all the workers at eight aluminium plants in Norway. A questionnaire was completed by 5654 workers at baseline in 1998. A total of 3320 of these participated in the follow-up study in 2000. Cox regression analysis was applied to investigate the relative impact of MSD in various parts of the body and of psychosocial and individual factors reported in 1998 on short-term and long-term sickness absence from MSD reported in 2000. Results MSD accounted for 45% of all working days lost the year prior to follow-up in 2000. Blue-collar workers had significantly higher risk than white-collar workers for both short- and long-term sickness absence from MSD (long-term sickness absence: RR = 3.04, 95% CI 2.08–4.45). Widespread and low back pain in 1998 significantly predicted both short- and long-term sickness absence in 2000. In addition, shoulder pain predicted long-term sickness absence. Low social support predicted short-term sickness absence (RR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.11–1.49). Conclusions Reducing sickness absence from MSD among industrial workers requires focusing on the working conditions of blue-collar workers and risk factors for low back pain and widespread pain. Increasing social support in the work environment may have effects in reducing short-term sickness absence from MSD. PMID:12956891

The influence of speed abilities and technical skills in early adolescence on adult success in soccer: A long-term prospective analysis using ANOVA and SEM approaches

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Several talent development programs in youth soccer have implemented motor diagnostics measuring performance factors. However, the predictive value of such tests for adult success is a controversial topic in talent research. This prospective cohort study evaluated the long-term predictive value of 1) motor tests and 2) players’ speed abilities (SA) and technical skills (TS) in early adolescence. The sample consisted of 14,178 U12 players from the German talent development program. Five tests (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting) were conducted and players’ height, weight as well as relative age were assessed at nationwide diagnostics between 2004 and 2006. In the 2014/15 season, the players were then categorized as professional (n = 89), semi-professional (n = 913), or non-professional players (n = 13,176), indicating their adult performance level (APL). The motor tests’ prognostic relevance was determined using ANOVAs. Players’ future success was predicted by a logistic regression threshold model. This structural equation model comprised a measurement model with the motor tests and two correlated latent factors, SA and TS, with simultaneous consideration for the manifest covariates height, weight and relative age. Each motor predictor and anthropometric characteristic discriminated significantly between the APL (p < .001; η2 ≤ .02). The threshold model significantly predicted the APL (R2 = 24.8%), and in early adolescence the factor TS (p < .001) seems to have a stronger effect on adult performance than SA (p < .05). Both approaches (ANOVA, SEM) verified the diagnostics’ predictive validity over a long-term period (≈ 9 years). However, because of the limited effect sizes, the motor tests’ prognostic relevance remains ambiguous. A challenge for future research lies in the integration of different (e.g., person-oriented or multilevel) multivariate approaches that expand beyond the “traditional” topic of single tests’ predictive validity and toward more theoretically founded issues. PMID:28806410

Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends.

PubMed

Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

2013-10-01

Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.

Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

PubMed Central

Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

2013-01-01

Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt. PMID:24198935

Chronic methamphetamine exposure produces a delayed, long-lasting memory deficit.

PubMed

North, Ashley; Swant, Jarod; Salvatore, Michael F; Gamble-George, Joyonna; Prins, Petra; Butler, Brittany; Mittal, Mukul K; Heltsley, Rebecca; Clark, John T; Khoshbouei, Habibeh

2013-05-01

Methamphetamine (METH) is a highly addictive and neurotoxic psychostimulant. Its use in humans is often associated with neurocognitive impairment. Whether this is due to long-term deficits in short-term memory and/or hippocampal plasticity remains unclear. Recently, we reported that METH increases baseline synaptic transmission and reduces LTP in an ex vivo preparation of the hippocampal CA1 region from young mice. In the current study, we tested the hypothesis that a repeated neurotoxic regimen of METH exposure in adolescent mice decreases hippocampal synaptic plasticity and produces a deficit in short-term memory. Contrary to our prediction, there was no change in the hippocampal plasticity or short-term memory when measured after 14 days of METH exposure. However, we found that at 7, 14, and 21 days of drug abstinence, METH-exposed mice exhibited a deficit in spatial memory, which was accompanied by a decrease in hippocampal plasticity. Our results support the interpretation that the deleterious cognitive consequences of neurotoxic levels of METH exposure may manifest and persist after drug abstinence. Therefore, therapeutic strategies should consider short-term as well as long-term consequences of methamphetamine exposure. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The association between plasma big endothelin-1 levels at admission and long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Wu, Shuang; Yang, Yan-Min; Zhu, Jun; Ren, Jia-Meng; Wang, Juan; Zhang, Han; Shao, Xing-Hui

2018-05-01

The prognostic role of big endothelin-1 (ET-1) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. We aimed to assess its predictive value in patients with AF. A total of 716 AF patients were enrolled and divided into two groups based on the optimal cut-off value of big ET-1 in predicting all-cause mortality. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and major adverse events (MAEs). Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were performed to assess the predictive value of big ET-1 on outcomes. With the optimal cut-off value of 0.55 pmol/L, 326 patients were classified into the high big ET-1 levels group. Cardiac dysfunction and left atrial dilation were factors related to high big ET-1 levels. During a median follow-up of 3 years, patients with big ET-1 ≥ 0.55 pmol/L had notably higher risk of all-cause death (44.8% vs. 11.5%, p < 0.001), MAEs (51.8% vs. 17.4%, p < 0.001), cardiovascular death, major bleeding, and tended to have higher thromboembolic risk. After adjusting for confounding factors, high big ET-1 level was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 2.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-3.05; p < 0.001), MAEs (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.50-2.80; p = 0.001), and cardiovascular death (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.52-3.93; p < 0.001). NRI analysis showed that big ET-1 allowed a significant improvement of 0.32 in the accuracy of predicting the risk of both all-cause mortality and MAEs. Elevated big ET-1 levels is an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality, MAEs, and cardiovascular death in patients with AF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

Otoacoustic emissions versus audiometry in monitoring hearing loss after long-term noise exposure - a systematic review.

PubMed

Helleman, Hiske W; Eising, Hilde; Limpens, Jacqueline; Dreschler, Wouter A

2018-03-15

Objectives The objective of this systematic review was to compare otoacoustic emissions (OAE) with audiometry in their effectiveness to monitor effects of long-term noise exposure on hearing. Methods We conducted a systematic search of MEDLINE, Embase and the non-MEDLINE subset of PubMed up to March 2016 to identify longitudinal studies on effects of noise exposure on hearing as determined by both audiometry and OAE. Results This review comprised 13 articles, with 30-350 subjects in the longitudinal analysis. A meta-analysis could not be performed because the studies were very heterogeneous in terms of measurement paradigms, follow-up time, age of included subjects, inclusion of data points, outcome parameters and method of analysis. Overall there seemed to be small changes in both audiometry and OAE over time. Individual shifts were detected by both methods but a congruent pattern could not be observed. Some studies found that initial abnormal or low-level emissions might predict future hearing loss but at the cost of low specificity due to a high number of false positives. Other studies could not find such predictive value. Conclusions The reported heterogeneity in the studies calls for more uniformity in including, reporting and analyzing longitudinal data for audiometry and OAE. For the overall results, both methods showed small changes from baseline towards a deterioration in hearing. OAE could not reliably detect threshold shifts at individual level. With respect to the predictive value of OAE, the evidence was not conclusive and studies were not in agreement. The reported predictors had low specificity.

Changes in US extreme sea levels and the role of large scale climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Chambers, D. P.

2015-12-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multi-decadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extra-tropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multi-decadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis approach we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (RWLs; 50 to 200 year return periods) ranging from ~10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. To explore the origin of these temporal changes and the role of large-scale climate variability we develop different sets of simple and multiple linear regression models with RWLs as dependent variables and climate indices, or tailored (toward the goal of predicting multi-decadal RWL changes) versions of them, and wind stress curl as independent predictors. The models, after being tested for spatial and temporal stability, explain up to 97% of the observed variability at individual sites and almost 80% on average. Using the model predictions as covariates for the quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis also significantly reduces the range of change in the 100-year RWLs over time, turning a non-stationary process into a stationary one. This highlights that the models - when used with regional and global climate model output of the predictors - should also be capable of projecting future RWL changes to be used by decision makers for improved flood preparedness and long-term resiliency.

Peer Rejection and Friendships in Children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: Contributions to Long-Term Outcomes

PubMed Central

Molina, Brooke S. G.; Hoza, Betsy; Gerdes, Alyson C.; Hinshaw, Stephen P.; Hechtman, Lily; Arnold, L. Eugene

2012-01-01

Even after evidence-based treatment, Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is associated with poor long-term outcomes. These outcomes may be partly explained by difficulties in peer functioning, which are common among children with ADHD and which do not respond optimally to standard ADHD treatments. We examined whether peer rejection and lack of dyadic friendships experienced by children with ADHD after treatment contribute to long-term emotional and behavioral problems and global impairment, and whether having a reciprocal friend buffers the negative effects of peer rejection. Children with Combined type ADHD (N=300) enrolled in the Multimodal Treatment Study of Children with ADHD (MTA) were followed for 8 years. Peer rejection and dyadic friendships were measured with sociometric assessments after the active treatment period (14 or 24 months after baseline; M ages 9.7 and 10.5 years, respectively). Outcomes included delinquency, depression, anxiety, substance use, and general impairment at 6 and 8 years after baseline (Mean ages 14.9 and 16.8 years, respectively). With inclusion of key covariates, including demographics, symptoms of ADHD, ODD, and CD, and level of the outcome variable at 24 months, peer rejection predicted cigarette smoking, delinquency, anxiety, and global impairment at 6 years and global impairment at 8 years after baseline. Having a reciprocal friend was not, however, uniquely predictive of any outcomes and did not reduce the negative effects of peer rejection. Evaluating and addressing peer rejection in treatment planning may be necessary to improve long-term outcomes in children with ADHD. PMID:22331455

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

2011-01-01

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

An Account of Performance in Accessing Information Stored in Long-Term Memory. A Fixed-Links Model Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altmeyer, Michael; Schweizer, Karl; Reiss, Siegbert; Ren, Xuezhu; Schreiner, Michael

2013-01-01

Performance in working memory and short-term memory tasks was employed for predicting performance in a long-term memory task in order to find out about the underlying processes. The types of memory were represented by versions of the Posner Task, the Backward Counting Task and the Sternberg Task serving as measures of long-term memory, working…

Using the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) for Predicting Institutionalization of Patients With Dementia in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Huang, Shih-Wei; Chang, Kwang-Hwa; Escorpizo, Reuben; Hu, Chaur-Jong; Chi, Wen-Chou; Yen, Chia-Feng; Liao, Hua-Fang; Chiu, Wen-Ta; Liou, Tsan-Hon

2015-01-01

Abstract World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) is an assessment tool and it has been applied for disability status assessment of Taiwanese dementia patients since July 2012. The aim of this study was to investigate the predicting accuracy of WHODAS 2.0 for institutionalization of dementia patients. Of these patients, 13,774 resided in a community and 4406 in a long-term care facility. Demographic data and WHODAS 2.0 standardized scores were analyzed using the Chi-square test and independent t test to compare patients with dementia in an institution with those in a community. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to investigate accuracy in predicting institutionalization, and the optimal cutoff point was determined using the Youden index. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze variables to determine risk factors for the institutionalization of patients with dementia. WHODAS 2.0 scores in all domains were higher in patients with dementia in a long-term care facility than in those in a community (P < 0.01). The ROC curve showed moderate accuracy for all domains of WHODAS 2.0 (area under curve 0.6∼0.8). Binary logistic regression revealed that the male gender, severity of disease, and standardized WHODAS 2.0 scores surpassing the cutoff values were risk factors for the institutionalization of patients with dementia. Although the accuracy of WHODAS 2.0 in predicting institutionalization is not considerably high for patients with dementia, our study found that the WHODAS 2.0 scores, the male gender, education status, urbanization level, and severity of disease were risk factors for institutionalization in long-term care facilities. PMID:26632747

Modeling forest biomass and growth: Coupling long-term inventory and LiDAR data

Treesearch

Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; Bruce D. Cook; Aaron Weiskittel; Christopher W. Woodall

2016-01-01

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB...

Transport properties of damaged materials. Cementitious barriers partnership

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Langton, C.

2014-11-01

The objective of the Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) project is to develop tools to improve understanding and prediction of the long-term structural, hydraulic, and chemical performance of cementitious barriers used in low-level waste storage applications. One key concern for the long-term durability of concrete is the degradation of the cementitious matrix, which occurs as a result of aggressive chemical species entering the material or leaching out in the environment, depending on the exposure conditions. The objective of the experimental study described in this report is to provide experimental data relating damage in cementitious materials to changes in transport properties, whichmore » can eventually be used to support predictive model development. In order to get results within a reasonable timeframe and to induce as much as possible uniform damage level in materials, concrete samples were exposed to freezing and thawing (F/T) cycles. The methodology consisted in exposing samples to F/T cycles and monitoring damage level with ultrasonic pulse velocity measurements. Upon reaching pre-selected damage levels, samples were tested to evaluate changes in transport properties. Material selection for the study was motivated by the need to get results rapidly, in order to assess the relevance of the methodology. Consequently, samples already available at SIMCO from past studies were used. They consisted in three different concrete mixtures cured for five years in wet conditions. The mixtures had water-to-cement ratios of 0.5, 0.65 and 0.75 and were prepared with ASTM Type I cement only. The results showed that porosity is not a good indicator for damage caused by the formation of microcracks. Some materials exhibited little variations in porosity even for high damage levels. On the other hand, significant variations in tortuosity were measured in all materials. This implies that damage caused by internal pressure does not necessarily create additional pore space in the microstructure, but likely creates new thin pathways between existing pore space for species to travel. These results have a significant impact on modeling efforts. Models relating porosity to tortuosity and permeability are unlikely to provide the correct basis for predicting long-term durability of concrete sustaining internal pressures and microcrack formation. Other avenues like the modeling of internal crystallization pressure need to be explored.« less

Uniaxial creep property and viscoelastic-plastic modelling of ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) foil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yintang; Wu, Minger

2015-02-01

Ethylene tetrafluoroethylene (ETFE) foil has been widely used in spatial structures for its light weight and high transparency. This paper studies short- and long-term creep properties of ETFE foil. Two series of short-term creep and recovery tests were performed, in which residual strain was observed. A long-term creep test of ETFE foil was also conducted and lasted about 400 days. A viscoelastic-plastic model was then established to describe short-term creep and recovery behaviour of ETFE foil. This model contains a traditional generalised Kelvin part and an added steady-flow component to represent viscoelastic and viscoplastic behaviour, respectively. The model can fit tests' data well at three stresses and six temperatures. Additionally, time-temperature superposition was adopted to simulate long-term creep behaviour of ETFE foil. Horizontal shifting factors were determined by W.L.F. equation in which transition temperature was simulated by shifting factors. Using this equation, long-term creep behaviours at three temperatures were predicted. The results of the long-term creep test showed that a short-term creep test at identical temperatures was insufficient to predict additional creep behaviour, and the long-term creep test verified horizontal shifting factors which were derived from the time-temperature superposition.

Higher integrity of the motor and visual pathways in long-term video game players.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Du, Guijin; Yang, Yongxin; Qin, Wen; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Quan

2015-01-01

Long term video game players (VGPs) exhibit superior visual and motor skills compared with non-video game control subjects (NVGCs). However, the neural basis underlying the enhanced behavioral performance remains largely unknown. To clarify this issue, the present study compared the whiter matter integrity within the corticospinal tracts (CST), the superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF), and the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (IFOF) between the VGPs and the NVGCs using diffusion tensor imaging. Compared with the NVGCs, voxel-wise comparisons revealed significantly higher fractional anisotropy (FA) values in some regions within the left CST, left SLF, bilateral ILF, and IFOF in VGPs. Furthermore, higher FA values in the left CST at the level of cerebral peduncle predicted a faster response in visual attention tasks. These results suggest that higher white matter integrity in the motor and higher-tier visual pathways is associated with long-term video game playing, which may contribute to the understanding on how video game play influences motor and visual performance.

Higher integrity of the motor and visual pathways in long-term video game players

PubMed Central

Du, Guijin; Yang, Yongxin; Qin, Wen; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Quan

2015-01-01

Long term video game players (VGPs) exhibit superior visual and motor skills compared with non-video game control subjects (NVGCs). However, the neural basis underlying the enhanced behavioral performance remains largely unknown. To clarify this issue, the present study compared the whiter matter integrity within the corticospinal tracts (CST), the superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF), the inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF), and the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus (IFOF) between the VGPs and the NVGCs using diffusion tensor imaging. Compared with the NVGCs, voxel-wise comparisons revealed significantly higher fractional anisotropy (FA) values in some regions within the left CST, left SLF, bilateral ILF, and IFOF in VGPs. Furthermore, higher FA values in the left CST at the level of cerebral peduncle predicted a faster response in visual attention tasks. These results suggest that higher white matter integrity in the motor and higher-tier visual pathways is associated with long-term video game playing, which may contribute to the understanding on how video game play influences motor and visual performance. PMID:25805981

Climate constrains the evolutionary history and biodiversity of crocodylians

PubMed Central

Mannion, Philip D.; Benson, Roger B. J.; Carrano, Matthew T.; Tennant, Jonathan P.; Judd, Jack; Butler, Richard J.

2015-01-01

The fossil record of crocodylians and their relatives (pseudosuchians) reveals a rich evolutionary history, prompting questions about causes of long-term decline to their present-day low biodiversity. We analyse climatic drivers of subsampled pseudosuchian biodiversity over their 250 million year history, using a comprehensive new data set. Biodiversity and environmental changes correlate strongly, with long-term decline of terrestrial taxa driven by decreasing temperatures in northern temperate regions, and biodiversity decreases at lower latitudes matching patterns of increasing aridification. However, there is no relationship between temperature and biodiversity for marine pseudosuchians, with sea-level change and post-extinction opportunism demonstrated to be more important drivers. A ‘modern-type' latitudinal biodiversity gradient might have existed throughout pseudosuchian history, and range expansion towards the poles occurred during warm intervals. Although their fossil record suggests that current global warming might promote long-term increases in crocodylian biodiversity and geographic range, the 'balancing forces' of anthropogenic environmental degradation complicate future predictions. PMID:26399170

Long-term bed degradation in Maryland streams (Phase III Part 2) : urban streams in the Piedmont Plateau Province : research report : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-02-01

Estimation of potential long-term down-cutting of the stream bed is necessary for evaluation and design of bridges for scour and culverts for fish passage. The purpose of this study has been to improve predictions of this potential long-term bed degr...

Railway track geometry degradation due to differential settlement of ballast/subgrade - Numerical prediction by an iterative procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, Jens C. O.; Li, Xin

2018-01-01

An iterative procedure for numerical prediction of long-term degradation of railway track geometry (longitudinal level) due to accumulated differential settlement of ballast/subgrade is presented. The procedure is based on a time-domain model of dynamic vehicle-track interaction to calculate the contact loads between sleepers and ballast in the short-term, which are then used in an empirical model to determine the settlement of ballast/subgrade below each sleeper in the long-term. The number of load cycles (wheel passages) accounted for in each iteration step is determined by an adaptive step length given by a maximum settlement increment. To reduce the computational effort for the simulations of dynamic vehicle-track interaction, complex-valued modal synthesis with a truncated modal set is applied for the linear subset of the discretely supported track model with non-proportional spatial distribution of viscous damping. Gravity loads and state-dependent vehicle, track and wheel-rail contact conditions are accounted for as external loads on the modal model, including situations involving loss of (and recovered) wheel-rail contact, impact between hanging sleeper and ballast, and/or a prescribed variation of non-linear track support stiffness properties along the track model. The procedure is demonstrated by calculating the degradation of longitudinal level over time as initiated by a prescribed initial local rail irregularity (dipped welded rail joint).

Intratumor Heterogeneity of the Estrogen Receptor and the Long-term Risk of Fatal Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Lindström, Linda S; Yau, Christina; Czene, Kamila; Thompson, Carlie K; Hoadley, Katherine A; Van't Veer, Laura J; Balassanian, Ron; Bishop, John W; Carpenter, Philip M; Chen, Yunn-Yi; Datnow, Brian; Hasteh, Farnaz; Krings, Gregor; Lin, Fritz; Zhang, Yanhong; Nordenskjöld, Bo; Stål, Olle; Benz, Christopher C; Fornander, Tommy; Borowsky, Alexander D; Esserman, Laura J

2018-01-19

Breast cancer patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease have a continuous long-term risk for fatal breast cancer, but the biological factors influencing this risk are unknown. We aimed to determine whether high intratumor heterogeneity of ER predicts an increased long-term risk (25 years) of fatal breast cancer. The STO-3 trial enrolled 1780 postmenopausal lymph node-negative breast cancer patients randomly assigned to receive adjuvant tamoxifen vs not. The fraction of cancer cells for each ER intensity level was scored by breast cancer pathologists, and intratumor heterogeneity of ER was calculated using Rao's quadratic entropy and categorized into high and low heterogeneity using a predefined cutoff at the second tertile (67%). Long-term breast cancer-specific survival analyses by intra-tumor heterogeneity of ER were performed using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. A statistically significant difference in long-term survival by high vs low intratumor heterogeneity of ER was seen for all ER-positive patients (P < .001) and for patients with luminal A subtype tumors (P = .01). In multivariable analyses, patients with high intratumor heterogeneity of ER had a twofold increased long-term risk as compared with patients with low intratumor heterogeneity (ER-positive: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31 to 3.00; luminal A subtype tumors: HR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.18 to 4.99). Patients with high intratumor heterogeneity of ER had an increased long-term risk of fatal breast cancer. Interestingly, a similar long-term risk increase was seen in patients with luminal A subtype tumors. Our findings suggest that intratumor heterogeneity of ER is an independent long-term prognosticator with potential to change clinical management, especially for patients with luminal A tumors. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press.

Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

PubMed

Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

2017-09-27

Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Response of urinary liver-type fatty acid-binding protein to contrast media administration has a potential to predict one-year renal outcome in patients with ischemic heart disease.

PubMed

Fujita, Daishi; Takahashi, Masao; Doi, Kent; Abe, Mitsuru; Tazaki, Junichi; Kiyosue, Arihiro; Myojo, Masahiro; Ando, Jiro; Fujita, Hideo; Noiri, Eisei; Sugaya, Takeshi; Hirata, Yasunobu; Komuro, Issei

2015-05-01

Urinary liver-type fatty acid-binding proteins (uL-FABP) have recently been recognized as a useful biomarker for predicting contrast-induced nephropathy. Although accumulating studies have evaluated short-term outcomes, its prognostic value for long-term renal prognosis in patients undergoing coronary angiography (CAG) has not been fully examined. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of uL-FABP for long-term renal outcome in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD). Consecutive 24 patients with impaired renal function (serum creatinine >1.2 mg/dL) who underwent CAG were enrolled. uL-FABP was measured before CAG, 24 and 48 h after CAG. The changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) throughout CAG and at 1 year later were compared with the uL-FABP levels. The patients with a greater decrease in eGFR 1 year later had higher uL-FABP levels at all points, but only the value at 48 h after CAG reached statistical significance (lower vs. higher decreased eGFR group, 4.61 ± 3.87 vs. 17.71 ± 12.96; P < 0.01). Measurement of uL-FABP at 48 h after CAG (48h-uL-FABP) showed better correlation with the change in eGFR (pre-CAG uL-FABP vs. 48h-uL-FABP: R = 0.27, P = 0.20 vs. R = 0.65, P < 0.01). Moreover, the high-pre and high-48h-uL-FABP group showed a significantly larger decrease in eGFR compared with the high-pre and low-48h-uL-FABP group (change in eGFR; 8.12 ± 4.06 vs. 1.25 ± 2.23 mL/min/1.73 m2, P < 0.01), although the baseline eGFR levels were similar between these two groups. In this pilot study, measurement of uL-FABP levels at 48 h after CAG may be useful in detecting renal damage, and in predicting 1-year renal outcome in IHD patients undergoing CAG.

The NASA Space Radiation Health Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimmerling, W.; Sulzman, F. M.

1994-01-01

The NASA Space Radiation Health Program is a part of the Life Sciences Division in the Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA). The goal of the Space Radiation Health Program is development of scientific bases for assuring adequate radiation protection in space. A proposed research program will determine long-term health risks from exposure to cosmic rays and other radiation. Ground-based animal models will be used to predict risk of exposures at varying levels from various sources and the safe levels for manned space flight.

Short- and Long-Term Effects of Concurrent Strength and HIIT Training in Octogenarians with COPD.

PubMed

Guadalupe-Grau, Amelia; Aznar-Laín, Susana; Mañas, Asier; Castellanos, Juan; Alcázar, Julián; Ara, Ignacio; Mata, Esmeralda; Daimiel, Rosa; García-García, Francisco José

2017-01-01

To investigate the short- and long-term effects of concurrent strength and high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on octogenarian COPD patients, nine males (age = 84.2 ± 2.8 years, BMI = 29.3 ± 2.3) with low to severe COPD levels (2.1 ± 1.5 BODE index) underwent a supervised 9-week strength and HIIT exercise program. Training had a significant (p < .05) impact on senior fitness test scores (23-45%), 30-m walking speed (from 1.29 ± 0.29-1.62 ± 0.33 m/s), leg and chest press 1RM (38% and 45% respectively), maximal isometric strength (30-35%), and 6-min walking test (from 286.1 ± 107.2-396.2 ± 106.5 m), and tended to increase predicted forced vital capacity by 14% (p = .07). One year after the intervention all training-induced gains returned to their preintervention values except for the chest press 1RM (p <.05). Short-term concurrent strength and HIIT training increases physical fitness in the oldest-old COPD patients, and has potential long-term benefits.

Long-term statin therapy could be efficacious in reducing the lipoprotein (a) levels in patients with coronary artery disease modified by some traditional risk factors.

PubMed

Xu, Ming-Xing; Liu, Chang; He, Yong-Ming; Yang, Xiang-Jun; Zhao, Xin

2017-05-01

Lipoprotein (a) [Lp (a)] is a well-established risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, up till now, treatment of patients with higher Lp (a) levels is challenging. This current study aimed to investigate the therapeutic effects of short-, medium and long-term statin use on the Lp (a) reduction and its modifying factors. The therapeutic duration was categorized into short-term (median, 39 days), medium term (median, 219 days) and long-term (median, 677 days). The lipid profiles before therapy served as baselines. Patients at short-, medium or long-term exactly matched with those at baseline. Every patient's lipid profiles during the follow-ups were compared to his own ones at baselines. The current study demonstrated that long-term statin therapy significantly decreased the Lp (a) levels in CAD patients while short-term or medium term statin therapy didn't. When grouped by statin use, only long-term simvastatin use significantly decreased the Lp (a) levels while long-term atorvastatin use insignificantly decreased the Lp (a) levels. Primary hypertension (PH), DM, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) could modify the therapeutic effects of statin use on the Lp (a) levels in CAD patients. The long-term statin therapy could be efficacious in reducing the Lp (a) levels in CAD patients, which has been modified by some traditional risk factors. In the era of commercial unavailability of more reliable Lp (a) lowering drugs, our findings will bolster confidence in fighting higher Lp (a) abnormalities both for patients and for doctors.

Does the stress response predict the ability of wild birds to adjust to short-term captivity? A study of the rock pigeon (Columbia livia)

PubMed Central

Parenteau, Charline; Trouvé, Colette; Angelier, Nicole

2016-01-01

Although the transfer of wild animals to captivity is crucial for conservation purposes, this process is often challenging because some species or individuals do not adjust well to captive conditions. Chronic stress has been identified as a major concern for animals held on long-term captivity. Surprisingly, the first hours or days of captivity have been relatively overlooked. However, they are certainly very stressful, because individuals are being transferred to a totally novel and confined environment. To ensure the success of conservation programmes, it appears crucial to better understand the proximate causes of interspecific and interindividual variability in the sensitivity to these first hours of captivity. In that respect, the study of stress hormones is relevant, because the hormonal stress response may help to assess whether specific individuals or species adjust, or not, to such captive conditions (‘the stress response-adjustment to captivity hypothesis’). We tested this hypothesis in rock pigeons by measuring their corticosterone stress response and their ability to adjust to short-term captivity (body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels after a day of captivity). We showed that an increased corticosterone stress response is associated with a lower ability to adjust to short-term captivity (i.e. higher body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels). Our study suggests, therefore, that a low physiological sensitivity to stress may be beneficial for adjusting to captivity. Future studies should now explore whether the stress response can be useful to predict the ability of individuals from different populations or species to not only adjust to short-term but also long-term captivity. PMID:28083117

Does the stress response predict the ability of wild birds to adjust to short-term captivity? A study of the rock pigeon (Columbia livia).

PubMed

Angelier, Frédéric; Parenteau, Charline; Trouvé, Colette; Angelier, Nicole

2016-12-01

Although the transfer of wild animals to captivity is crucial for conservation purposes, this process is often challenging because some species or individuals do not adjust well to captive conditions. Chronic stress has been identified as a major concern for animals held on long-term captivity. Surprisingly, the first hours or days of captivity have been relatively overlooked. However, they are certainly very stressful, because individuals are being transferred to a totally novel and confined environment. To ensure the success of conservation programmes, it appears crucial to better understand the proximate causes of interspecific and interindividual variability in the sensitivity to these first hours of captivity. In that respect, the study of stress hormones is relevant, because the hormonal stress response may help to assess whether specific individuals or species adjust, or not, to such captive conditions ('the stress response-adjustment to captivity hypothesis'). We tested this hypothesis in rock pigeons by measuring their corticosterone stress response and their ability to adjust to short-term captivity (body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels after a day of captivity). We showed that an increased corticosterone stress response is associated with a lower ability to adjust to short-term captivity (i.e. higher body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels). Our study suggests, therefore, that a low physiological sensitivity to stress may be beneficial for adjusting to captivity. Future studies should now explore whether the stress response can be useful to predict the ability of individuals from different populations or species to not only adjust to short-term but also long-term captivity.

Does improvement in self-management skills predict improvement in quality of life and depressive symptoms? A prospective study in patients with heart failure up to one year after self-management education.

PubMed

Musekamp, Gunda; Schuler, Michael; Seekatz, Bettina; Bengel, Jürgen; Faller, Hermann; Meng, Karin

2017-02-15

Heart failure (HF) patient education aims to foster patients' self-management skills. These are assumed to bring about, in turn, improvements in distal outcomes such as quality of life. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that change in self-reported self-management skills observed after participation in self-management education predicts changes in physical and mental quality of life and depressive symptoms up to one year thereafter. The sample comprised 342 patients with chronic heart failure, treated in inpatient rehabilitation clinics, who received a heart failure self-management education program. Latent change modelling was used to analyze relationships between both short-term (during inpatient rehabilitation) and intermediate-term (after six months) changes in self-reported self-management skills and both intermediate-term and long-term (after twelve months) changes in physical and mental quality of life and depressive symptoms. Short-term changes in self-reported self-management skills predicted intermediate-term changes in mental quality of life and long-term changes in physical quality of life. Intermediate-term changes in self-reported self-management skills predicted long-term changes in all outcomes. These findings support the assumption that improvements in self-management skills may foster improvements in distal outcomes.

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

PubMed

Kanamori, H

1996-04-30

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, R.

2016-12-01

Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management decisions. A systematic uncertainty quantification approach can been used to understand how uncertain parameters associated with different subsystems (e.g., reservoir permeability, wellbore cement permeability, wellbore density, etc.) impact the overall site performance predictions.

Reliability of Long-Term Wave Conditions Predicted with Data Sets of Short Duration

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-03-01

the validity and reliability of predicted probable wave heights obtained from data of limited duration. BACKGROUND: The basic steps listed by...interest to perform the analysis outlined in steps 2 to 5, the prediction would only be reliable for up to a 3year return period. For a 5-year data set...for long-term hindcast data . The data retrieval and analysis program known as the Sea State Engineering Analysis System (SEAS) makes handling of the

The nature of earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindh, A.G.

1991-01-01

Earthquake prediction is inherently statistical. Although some people continue to think of earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, and magnitude of a future earthquake, it has been clear for at least a decade that this is an unrealistic and unreasonable definition. the reality is that earthquake prediction starts from the long-term forecasts of place and magnitude, with very approximate time constraints, and progresses, at least in principle, to a gradual narrowing of the time window as data and understanding permit. Primitive long-term forecasts are clearly possible at this time on a few well-characterized fault systems. Tightly focuses monitoring experiments aimed at short-term prediction are already underway in Parkfield, California, and in the Tokai region in Japan; only time will tell how much progress will be possible. 

The significance of serum urea and renal function in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Gotsman, Israel; Zwas, Donna; Planer, David; Admon, Dan; Lotan, Chaim; Keren, Andre

2010-07-01

Renal function and urea are frequently abnormal in patients with heart failure (HF) and are predictive of increased mortality. The relative importance of each parameter is less clear. We prospectively compared the predictive value of renal function and serum urea on clinical outcome in patients with HF. Patients hospitalized with definite clinical diagnosis of HF (n = 355) were followed for short-term (1 yr) and long-term (mean, 6.5 yr) survival and HF rehospitalization. Increasing tertiles of discharge estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were an independent predictor of increased long-term survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.91; p = 0.01) but not short-term survival. Admission and discharge serum urea and blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/creatinine ratio were predictors of reduced short- and long-term survival on multivariate Cox regression analysis. Increasing tertiles of discharge urea were a predictor of reduced 1-year survival (HR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.21-3.73; p = 0.009) and long-term survival (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.37-2.71; p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis including discharge eGFR and serum urea demonstrated that only serum urea remained a significant predictor of long-term survival; however, eGFR and BUN/creatinine ratio were both independently predictive of survival. Urea was more discriminative than eGFR in predicting long-term survival by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.803 vs. 0.787; p = 0.01). Increasing tertiles of discharge serum urea and BUN/creatinine were independent predictors of HF rehospitalization and combined death and HF rehospitalization. This study suggests that serum urea is a more powerful predictor of survival than eGFR in patients with HF. This may be due to urea's relation to key biological parameters including renal, hemodynamic, and neurohormonal parameters pertaining to the overall clinical status of the patient with chronic HF.

Comparison of Models of Stress Relaxation in Failure Analysis for Connectors under Long-term Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yilin; Wan, Mengru

2018-03-01

Reliability requirements of the system equipment under long-term storage are put forward especially for the military products, so that the connectors in the equipment also need long-term storage life correspondingly. In this paper, the effects of stress relaxation of the elastic components on electrical contact of the connectors in long-term storage process were studied from the failure mechanism and degradation models. A wire spring connector was taken as an example to discuss the life prediction method for electrical contacts of the connectors based on stress relaxation degradation under long -term storage.

Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Using Long Short-Term Memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qin; Wang, Hui; Dong, Junyu; Zhong, Guoqiang; Sun, Xin

2017-10-01

This letter adopts long short-term memory(LSTM) to predict sea surface temperature(SST), which is the first attempt, to our knowledge, to use recurrent neural network to solve the problem of SST prediction, and to make one week and one month daily prediction. We formulate the SST prediction problem as a time series regression problem. LSTM is a special kind of recurrent neural network, which introduces gate mechanism into vanilla RNN to prevent the vanished or exploding gradient problem. It has strong ability to model the temporal relationship of time series data and can handle the long-term dependency problem well. The proposed network architecture is composed of two kinds of layers: LSTM layer and full-connected dense layer. LSTM layer is utilized to model the time series relationship. Full-connected layer is utilized to map the output of LSTM layer to a final prediction. We explore the optimal setting of this architecture by experiments and report the accuracy of coastal seas of China to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, we also show its online updated characteristics.

Litter quality and its response to water level drawdown in boreal peatlands at plant species and community level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straková, Petra; Anttila, Jani; Spetz, Peter; Kitunen, Veikko; Tapanila, Tarja; Laiho, Raija

2010-05-01

There is increasing evidence that changes in the species composition and structure of plant communities induced by global change will have much more impact on plant-mediated carbon cycling than any phenotypic responses. These impacts are largely mediated by shifts in litter quality. There are few documentations of these changes so far, due to the relatively long time scale required for their direct observation. Here, we examine the changes in litter inputs induced by persistent water-level drawdown in boreal peatland sites. Peatlands contain a major proportion of the terrestrial carbon pool, and it is thus important to be able to predict their behaviour and role in the global C cycle under different global change factors. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent water level (WL) drawdown on the quantity and chemical quality of above-ground plant litter inputs at three sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. The parameters used to characterize litter quality included various extractable substances, cellulose, holocellulose, composition of hemicellulose (neutral sugars, uronic acids), lignin, CuO oxidation phenolic products, and concentrations of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium, magnesium, manganese and calcium. Four different groups of litter were clearly distinct based on their chemical quality: foliar litters, graminoids, mosses and woody litters. The pristine conditions were characterized by Sphagnum moss and graminoid litter. Following short-term WL drawdown, changes in the quality and quantity of litter inputs were small. Following long-term WL drawdown, total litter inputs dramatically increased, due to increased tree litter inputs, and the litter type composition greatly changed. These changes resulted in annual inputs of 1901-2010 kg•ha-1 C, 22-24 kg•ha-1 N, 1.5-2.2 kg•ha-1 P, 967-1235 kg•ha-1 lignin and lignin-like compounds and 254-300 kg•ha-1 water solubles after long-term WL drawdown, compared to respective values of 394-658, 5.6-9.3, 0.22-24.4, 161-293 and 44-81 for the pristine conditions. The direct effects of WL drawdown on litter quality were overruled by the indirect effects via changes in vegetation composition. The short-term (reflecting transient conditions) and long-term (reflecting longer-lasting situation of already adapted ecosystem) effects were very different. Our results imply that the long-term effects will strongly affect the soil properties and C cycle of peatlands.

Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population of Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2013-01-01

Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others, conservation and management efforts can benefit by understanding spatial- and gender-based stress responses to landscape conditions.

Spatial Analysis of Factors Influencing Long-Term Stress in the Grizzly Bear (Ursus arctos) Population of Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Bourbonnais, Mathieu L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.; Cattet, Marc R. L.; Darimont, Chris T.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

2013-01-01

Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others, conservation and management efforts can benefit by understanding spatial- and gender-based stress responses to landscape conditions. PMID:24386273

Antimicrobial Resistance of Faecal Escherichia coli Isolates from Pig Farms with Different Durations of In-feed Antimicrobial Use.

PubMed

Gibbons, J F; Boland, F; Egan, J; Fanning, S; Markey, B K; Leonard, F C

2016-05-01

Antimicrobial use and resistance in animal and food production are of concern to public health. The primary aims of this study were to determine the frequency of resistance to 12 antimicrobials in Escherichia coli isolates from 39 pig farms and to identify patterns of antimicrobial use on these farms. Further aims were to determine whether a categorization of farms based on the duration of in-feed antimicrobial use (long-term versus short-term) could predict the occurrence of resistance on these farms and to identify the usage of specific antimicrobial drugs associated with the occurrence of resistance. Escherichia coli were isolated from all production stages on these farms; susceptibility testing was carried out against a panel of antimicrobials. Antimicrobial prescribing data were collected, and farms were categorized as long term or short term based on these. Resistance frequencies and antimicrobial use were tabulated. Logistic regression models of resistance to each antimicrobial were constructed with stage of production, duration of antimicrobial use and the use of 5 antimicrobial classes included as explanatory variables in each model. The greatest frequencies of resistance were observed to tetracycline, trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole and streptomycin with the highest levels of resistance observed in isolates from first-stage weaned pigs. Differences in the types of antimicrobial drugs used were noted between long-term and short-term use farms. Categorization of farms as long- or short-term use was sufficient to predict the likely occurrence of resistance to 3 antimicrobial classes and could provide an aid in the control of resistance in the food chain. Stage of production was a significant predictor variable in all models of resistance constructed and did not solely reflect antimicrobial use at each stage. Cross-selection and co-selection for resistance was evident in the models constructed, and the use of trimethoprim/sulphonamide drugs in particular was associated with the occurrence of resistance to other antimicrobials. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Changes in the level of cardiac troponine and disorders in pulmonary gas exchange as predictors of short- and long-term outcomes of patients with aneurysm subarachnoid haemorrhage.

PubMed

Burzyńska, Małgorzata; Uryga, Agnieszka; Kasprowicz, Magdalena; Kędziora, Jarosław; Szewczyk, Ewa; Woźniak, Jowita; Jarmundowicz, Włodzimierz; Kübler, Andrzej

2017-12-01

Cardiopulmonary abnormalities are common after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). However, the relationship between short- and long-term outcome is poorly understood. In this paper, we present how cardiac troponine elevations (cTnI) and pulmonary disorders are associated with short- and long-term outcomes assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE). A total of 104 patients diagnosed with aSAH were analysed in the study. The non-parametric U Mann-Whitney test was used to evaluate the difference between good (GOS IV-V, GOSE V-VIII) and poor (GOS I-III, GOSE I-IV) outcomes in relation to cTnI elevation and pulmonary disorders. Outcome was assessed at discharge from the hospital, and then followed up 6 and 12 months later. Pulmonary disorders were determined by the PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio and radiography. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were used to determine the predictive power of these factors. In the group with good short-term outcomes cTnI elevation on the second day after aSAH was significantly lower (p = .00007) than in patients with poor short-term outcomes. The same trend was observed after 6 months, although there were different results 12 months from the onset (p = .024 and n.s., respectively). A higher peak of cTnI was observed in the group with a pathological X-ray (p = .008) and pathological PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio (p ≪ .001). cTnI was an accurate predictor of short-term outcomes (AUC = 0.741, p ≪ .001) and the outcome after 6 months (AUC = 0.688, p = .015). The results showed that cardiopulmonary abnormalities perform well as predictive factors for short- and long-term outcomes after aSAH.

Simulation and Prediction of Groundwater Pollution from Planned Feed Additive Project in Nanning City Based on GMS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yimin; Lan, Junkang; Wen, Zhixiong

2018-01-01

In order to predict the pollution of underground aquifers and rivers by the proposed project, Specialized hydrogeological investigation was carried out. After hydrogeological surveying and mapping, drilling, and groundwater level monitoring, the scope of the hydrogeological unit and the regional hydrogeological condition were found out. The permeability coefficients of the aquifers were also obtained by borehole water injection tests. In order to predict the impact on groundwater environment by the project, a GMS software was used in numerical simulation. The simulation results show that when unexpected sewage leakage accident happened, the pollutants will be gradually diluted by groundwater, and the diluted contaminants will slowly spread to southeast with groundwater flow, eventually they are discharged into Gantang River. However, the process of the pollutants discharging into the river is very long, the long-term dilution of the river water will keep Gantang River from being polluted.

Absenteeism screening questionnaire (ASQ): a new tool for predicting long-term absenteeism among workers with low back pain.

PubMed

Truchon, Manon; Schmouth, Marie-Ève; Côté, Denis; Fillion, Lise; Rossignol, Michel; Durand, Marie-José

2012-03-01

Over the last decades, psychosocial factors were identified by many studies as significant predictive variables in the development of disability related to common low back disorders, which thus contributed to the development of biopsychosocial prevention interventions. Biopsychosocial interventions were supposed to be more effective than usual interventions in improving different outcomes. Unfortunately, most of these interventions show inconclusive results. The use of screening questionnaires was proposed as a solution to improve their efficacy. The aim of this study was to validate a new screening questionnaire to identify workers at risk of being absent from work for more than 182 cumulative days and who are more susceptible to benefit from prevention interventions. Injured workers receiving income replacement benefits from the Quebec Compensation Board (n = 535) completed a 67-item questionnaire in the sub-acute stage of pain and provided information about work-related events 6 and 12 months later. Reliability and validity of the 67-item questionnaire were determined respectively by test-retest reliability and internal consistency analysis, as well as by construct validity analyses. The Cox regression model and the maximum likelihood method were used to fix a model allowing calculation of a probability of absence of more than 182 days. Criterion validity and discriminative capacity of this model were calculated. Sub-sections from the 67-item questionnaire were moderately to highly correlated 2 weeks later (r = 0.52-0.80) and showed moderate to good internal consistency (0.70-0.94). Among the 67-item questionnaire, six sub-sections and variables (22 items) were predictive of long-term absence from work: fear-avoidance beliefs related to work, return to work expectations, annual family income before-taxes, last level of education attained, work schedule and work concerns. The area under the ROC curve was 73%. The significant predictive variables of long-term absence from work were dominated by workplace conditions and individual perceptions about work. In association with individual psychosocial variables, these variables could contribute to identify potentially useful prevention interventions and to reduce the significant costs associated with LBP long-term absenteeism.

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen

PubMed Central

Lenton, Timothy M.; Dahl, Tais W.; Daines, Stuart J.; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Ozaki, Kazumi; Saltzman, Matthew R.; Porada, Philipp

2016-01-01

The progressive oxygenation of the Earth’s atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O2) first approached modern levels (∼21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435–392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O2 >15–17% by 420–400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from ∼470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burial—the net long-term source of O2. We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved ∼30% of today’s global terrestrial net primary productivity by ∼445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (∼2,000) than marine biomass (∼100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2‰ increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (δ13C) record by ∼445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O2 to present levels by 420–400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O2 levels. PMID:27528678

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M; Dahl, Tais W; Daines, Stuart J; Mills, Benjamin J W; Ozaki, Kazumi; Saltzman, Matthew R; Porada, Philipp

2016-08-30

The progressive oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O2) first approached modern levels (∼21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435-392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O2 >15-17% by 420-400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from ∼470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burial-the net long-term source of O2 We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved ∼30% of today's global terrestrial net primary productivity by ∼445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (∼2,000) than marine biomass (∼100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2‰ increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (δ(13)C) record by ∼445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O2 to present levels by 420-400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O2 levels.

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenton, Timothy M.; Dahl, Tais W.; Daines, Stuart J.; Mills, Benjamin J. W.; Ozaki, Kazumi; Saltzman, Matthew R.; Porada, Philipp

2016-08-01

The progressive oxygenation of the Earth’s atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O2) first approached modern levels (˜21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435-392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O2 >15-17% by 420-400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from ˜470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burial—the net long-term source of O2. We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved ˜30% of today’s global terrestrial net primary productivity by ˜445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (˜2,000) than marine biomass (˜100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2‰ increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (δ13C) record by ˜445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O2 to present levels by 420-400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O2 levels.

The essential value of long-term experimental data for hydrology and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Carey, Sean K.; McNamara, James P.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Soulsby, Chris

2017-04-01

Observations and data from long-term experimental watersheds are the foundation of hydrology as a geoscience. They allow us to benchmark process understanding, observe trends and natural cycles, and are prerequisites for testing predictive models. Long-term experimental watersheds also are places where new measurement technologies are developed. These studies offer a crucial evidence base for understanding and managing the provision of clean water supplies, predicting and mitigating the effects of floods, and protecting ecosystem services provided by rivers and wetlands. They also show how to manage land and water in an integrated, sustainable way that reduces environmental and economic costs.

Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

Treesearch

Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

2012-01-01

Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

Patient activation in older people with long-term conditions and multimorbidity: correlates and change in a cohort study in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Blakemore, Amy; Hann, Mark; Howells, Kelly; Panagioti, Maria; Sidaway, Mark; Reeves, David; Bower, Peter

2016-10-18

Patient Activation is defined as the knowledge, skill, and confidence a patient has in managing their health. Higher levels of patient activation are associated with better self-management, better health outcomes, and lower healthcare costs. Understanding the drivers of patient activation can allow better tailoring of patient support and interventions. There are few data on patient activation in UK patients with long-term conditions. A prospective cohort design was used. Questionnaires were mailed to 12,989 patients over the age of 65 years with at least one long-term condition in Salford, UK. They completed the Patient Activation Measure and self-report measures of: depression, health literacy, social support, health-related quality of life, and impact of multimorbidity. We report descriptive data on baseline activation and change over time, and use multivariate regression to model associations with patient activation at baseline and predictors of change in Activation over 6 months. The cohort included 4377 (33.6 %) older people, of whom 4225 were mailed a further questionnaire at 6 months; 3390 returned it complete (80.2 %). At baseline, 15 % self-reported PAM level 1, 16 % level 2, 45 % level 3, and 25 % level 4. Across all patients, depression had the strongest association with patient activation. Other important factors were: older age, being retired, poor health literacy, health-related quality of life, and social support. Total number of self-reported comorbidities and the perceived impact of comorbidities were also important for patients with more than one long-term condition. Patient activation scores were reasonably enduring over time (r = 0.43 between baseline and at six months), although nearly half changed 'levels' of activation over that time. Few variables predicted change in activation over 6 months. This is the first large scale assessment of patient activation in the UK. Our data may be useful in identifying patients who need support with patient activation, and allow interventions (such as health coaching) to be tailored to better support older patients with long-term conditions who have symptoms of depression, poor social support and impaired health literacy. Further analyses of longitudinal studies will be necessary to better understand the causal relationships between patient activation and variables such as depression.

Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

2018-02-01

In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

Chronic animal experiment with magnetically suspended centrifugal pump.

PubMed

Yamada, T; Nishimura, K; Park, C H; Kono, S; Yuasa, S; Tsukiya, T; Akamatsu, T; Matsuda, K; Ban, T

1997-07-01

We have been developing a new type of centrifugal pump for long-term use. The magnetically suspended centrifugal pump (MSCP) contains no shaft and seal so that long life expectancy is predicted. Paracorporeal left ventricular (LV) assist circulation between the left atrium and the descending aorta was instituted using sheep. The flow rates ranged from 2.5-5.5 L/min. The sheep that lived the longest (46 days) died of an embolism as a result of the thrombus in the pump. No thrombus formation was observed in other pumps. Plasma free hemoglobin levels ranged from 9 to 18 mg/dl, which led to the conclusion that the hemolysis level remained within an acceptable range. Two driving modes were compared. The slope of the pressure-flow relationship plot under a constant motor current mode was steeper than that under a constant rotational speed mode, and thus, the flow fluctuation decreased. In conclusion, the MSCP is durable for more than a month at the current stage of development and is a promising device for long-term ventricular assist.

Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring.

PubMed

Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D; Larson, Timothy V; Keller, Joshua P; Kaufman, Joel D

2017-01-01

Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children's Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84-0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00-0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. Citation: Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Larson TV, Keller JP, Kaufman JD. 2017. Historical prediction modeling approach for estimating long-term concentrations of PM2.5 in cohort studies before the 1999 implementation of widespread monitoring. Environ Health Perspect 125:38-46; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP131.

Triiodothyronine and brain natriuretic peptide: similar long-term prognostic values for chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Kozdag, Guliz; Ertas, Gokhan; Kilic, Teoman; Acar, Eser; Sahin, Tayfun; Ural, Dilek

2010-01-01

Although low levels of free triiodothyronine and high levels of brain natriuretic peptide have been shown as independent predictors of death in chronic heart failure patients, few studies have compared their prognostic values. The aim of this prospective study was to measure free triiodothyronine and brain natriuretic peptide levels and to compare their prognostic values among such patients.A total of 334 patients (mean age, 62 ± 13 yr; 218 men) with ischemic and nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy were included in the study. The primary endpoint was a major cardiac event.During the follow-up period, 92 patients (28%) experienced a major cardiac event. Mean free triiodothyronine levels were lower and median brain natriuretic peptide levels were higher in patients with major cardiac events than in those without. A significant negative correlation was found between free triiodothyronine and brain natriuretic peptide levels. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the predictive cutoff values were < 2.12 pg/mL for free triiodothyronine and > 686 pg/mL for brain natriuretic peptide. Cumulative survival was significantly lower among patients with free triiodothyronine < 2.12 pg/mL and among patients with brain natriuretic peptide > 686 pg/mL. In multivariate analysis, the significant independent predictors of major cardiac events were age, free triiodothyronine, and brain natriuretic peptide.In the present study, free triiodothyronine and brain natriuretic peptide had similar prognostic values for predicting long-term prognosis in chronic heart failure patients. These results also suggested that combining these biomarkers may provide an important risk indicator for patients with heart failure.

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

The Parable of the Sower and the Long-Term Effects of Early Reading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suggate, Sebastian P.

2015-01-01

Previous work on the long-term effects of early reading focuses on whether children can read early (i.e. capability) not on whether this is beneficial (i.e. optimality). The Luke Effect is introduced to predict long-term reading development as a function of when children learn to read. A review of correlational, intervention, and comparative…

Effects of perceptual body image distortion and early weight gain on long-term outcome of adolescent anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Boehm, Ilka; Finke, Beatrice; Tam, Friederike I; Fittig, Eike; Scholz, Michael; Gantchev, Krassimir; Roessner, Veit; Ehrlich, Stefan

2016-12-01

Anorexia nervosa (AN), a severe mental disorder with an onset during adolescence, has been found to be difficult to treat. Identifying variables that predict long-term outcome may help to develop better treatment strategies. Since body image distortion and weight gain are central elements of diagnosis and treatment of AN, the current study investigated perceptual body image distortion, defined as the accuracy of evaluating one's own perceived body size in relation to the actual body size, as well as total and early weight gain during inpatient treatment as predictors for long-term outcome in a sample of 76 female adolescent AN patients. Long-term outcome was defined by physical, psychological and psychosocial adjustment using the Morgan-Russell outcome assessment schedule as well as by the mere physical outcome consisting of menses and/or BMI approximately 3 years after treatment. Perceptual body image distortion and early weight gain predicted long-term outcome (explained variance 13.3 %), but not the physical outcome alone. This study provides first evidence for an association of perceptual body image distortion with long-term outcome of adolescent anorexia nervosa and underlines the importance of sufficient early weight gain.

Recognition of predictors for mid-long term runoff prediction based on lasso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Reliable and accuracy mid-long term runoff prediction is of great importance in integrated management of reservoir. And many methods are proposed to model runoff time series. Almost all forecast lead times (LT) of these models are 1 month, and the predictors are previous runoff with different time lags. However, runoff prediction with increased LT, which is more beneficial, is not popular in current researches. It is because the connection between previous runoff and current runoff will be weakened with the increase of LT. So 74 atmospheric circulation factors (ACFs) together with pre-runoff are used as alternative predictors for mid-long term runoff prediction of Longyangxia reservoir in this study. Because pre-runoff and 74 ACFs with different time lags are so many and most of these factors are useless, lasso, which means `least absolutely shrinkage and selection operator', is used to recognize predictors. And the result demonstrates that 74 ACFs are beneficial for runoff prediction in both validation and test sets when LT is greater than 6. And there are 6 factors other than pre-runoff, most of which are with big time lag, are selected as predictors frequently. In order to verify the effect of 74 ACFs, 74 stochastic time series generated from normalized 74 ACFs are used as input of model. The result shows that these 74 stochastic time series are useless, which confirm the effect of 74 ACFs on mid-long term runoff prediction.

Proton MRS in acute traumatic brain injury: role for glutamate/glutamine and choline for outcome prediction.

PubMed

Shutter, Lori; Tong, Karen A; Holshouser, Barbara A

2004-12-01

Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) is being used to evaluate individuals with acute traumatic brain injury and several studies have shown that changes in certain brain metabolites (N-acetylaspartate, choline) are associated with poor neurologic outcomes. The majority of previous MRS studies have been obtained relatively late after injury and none have examined the role of glutamate/ glutamine (Glx). We conducted a prospective MRS study of 42 severely injured adults to measure quantitative metabolite changes early (7 days) after injury in normal appearing brain. We used these findings to predict long-term neurologic outcome and to determine if MRS data alone or in combination with clinical outcome variables provided better prediction of long-term outcomes. We found that glutamate/glutamine (Glx) and choline (Cho) were significantly elevated in occipital gray and parietal white matter early after injury in patients with poor long-term (6-12-month) outcomes. Glx and Cho ratios predicted long-term outcome with 94% accuracy and when combined with the motor Glasgow Coma Scale score provided the highest predictive accuracy (97%). Somatosensory evoked potentials were not as accurate as MRS data in predicting outcome. Elevated Glx and Cho are more sensitive indicators of injury and predictors of poor outcome when spectroscopy is done early after injury. This may be a reflection of early excitotoxic injury (i.e., elevated Glx) and of injury associated with membrane disruption (i.e., increased Cho) secondary to diffuse axonal injury.

To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

PubMed

Schaarup-Jensen, K; Rasmussen, M R; Thorndahl, S

2009-01-01

In urban drainage modelling long-term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties with regards to long-term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems. These uncertainties originate from large uncertainties regarding rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper investigates how the choice of rainfall time series influences the extreme events statistics of max water levels in manholes and CSO volumes. Traditionally, long-term rainfall series, from a local rain gauge, are unavailable. In the present case study, however, long and local rain series are available. 2 rainfall gauges have recorded events for approximately 9 years at 2 locations within the catchment. Beside these 2 gauges another 7 gauges are located at a distance of max 20 kilometers from the catchment. All gauges are included in the Danish national rain gauge system which was launched in 1976. The paper describes to what extent the extreme events statistics based on these 9 series diverge from each other and how this diversity can be handled, e.g. by introducing an "averaging procedure" based on the variability within the set of statistics. All simulations are performed by means of the MOUSE LTS model.

Long-term outcomes of anterior spinal fusion for treating thoracic adolescent idiopathic scoliosis curves: average 15-year follow-up analysis.

PubMed

Sudo, Hideki; Ito, Manabu; Kaneda, Kiyoshi; Shono, Yasuhiro; Takahata, Masahiko; Abumi, Kuniyoshi

2013-05-01

Retrospective review. To assess the long-term outcomes of anterior spinal fusion (ASF) for treating thoracic adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Although ASF is reported to provide good coronal and sagittal correction of the main thoracic (MT) AIS curves, the long-term outcomes of ASF is unknown. A consecutive series of 25 patients with Lenke 1 MT AIS were included. Outcome measures comprised radiographical measurements, pulmonary function, and Scoliosis Research Society outcome instrument (SRS-30) scores (preoperative SRS-30 scores were not documented). Postoperative surgical revisions and complications were recorded. Twenty-five patients were followed-up for 12 to 18 years (average, 15.2 yr). The average MT Cobb angle correction rate and the correction loss at the final follow-up were 56.7% and 9.2°, respectively. The average preoperative instrumented level of kyphosis was 8.3°, which significantly improved to 18.6° (P = 0.0003) at the final follow-up. The average percent-predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 second were significantly decreased during long-term follow-up measurements (73% and 69%; P = 0.0004 and 0.0016, respectively). However, no patient had complaints related to pulmonary function. The average total SRS-30 score was 4.0. Implant breakage was not observed. All patients, except 1 who required revision surgery, demonstrated solid fusion. Late instrumentation-related bronchial problems were observed in 1 patient who required implant removal and bronchial tube repair, 13 years after the initial surgery. Overall radiographical findings and patient outcome measures of ASF for Lenke 1 MT AIS were satisfactory at an average follow-up of 15 years. ASF provides significant sagittal correction of the main thoracic curve with long-term maintenance of sagittal profiles. Percent-predicted values of forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 second were decreased in this cohort; however, no patient had complaints related to pulmonary function.

Interlaboratory evaluation of Hyalella azteca and Chironomus tentans short-term and long-term sediment toxicity tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norberg-King, T. J.; Sibley, P.K.; Burton, G.A.; Ingersoll, C.G.; Kemble, N.E.; Ireland, S.; Mount, D.R.; Rowland, C.D.

2006-01-01

Methods for assessing the long-term toxicity of sediments to Hyalella azteca and Chironomus tentans can significantly enhance the capacity to assess sublethal effects of contaminated sediments through multiple endpoints. Sublethal tests allow us to begin to understand the relationship between short-term and long-term effects for toxic sediments. We present an interlaboratory evaluation with long-term and 10-d tests using control and contaminated sediments in which we assess whether proposed and existing performance criteria (test acceptability criteria [TAC]) could be achieved. Laboratories became familiar with newly developed, long-term protocols by testing two control sediments in phase 1. In phase 2, the 10-d and long-term tests were examined with several sediments. Laboratories met the TACs, but results varied depending on the test organism, test duration, and endpoints. For the long-term tests in phase 1, 66 to 100% of the laboratories consistently met the TACs for survival, growth, or reproduction using H. azteca, and 70 to 100% of the laboratories met the TACs for survival and growth, emergence, reproduction, and hatchability using C. tentans. In phase 2, fewer laboratories participated in long-term tests: 71 to 88% of the laboratories met the TAC for H. azteca, whereas 50 to 67% met the TAC for C. tentans. In the 10-d tests with H. azteca, and C. tentans, 82 and 88% of the laboratories met the TAC for survival, respectively, and 80% met the TAC for C. tentans growth. For the 10-d and long-term tests, laboratories predicted similar toxicity. Overall, the interlaboratory evaluation showed good precision of the methods, appropriate endpoints were incorporated into the test protocols, and tests effectively predicted the toxicity of sediments.

Imbalanced pattern completion vs. separation in cognitive disease: network simulations of synaptic pathologies predict a personalized therapeutics strategy.

PubMed

Hanson, Jesse E; Madison, Daniel V

2010-08-13

Diverse Mouse genetic models of neurodevelopmental, neuropsychiatric, and neurodegenerative causes of impaired cognition exhibit at least four convergent points of synaptic malfunction: 1) Strength of long-term potentiation (LTP), 2) Strength of long-term depression (LTD), 3) Relative inhibition levels (Inhibition), and 4) Excitatory connectivity levels (Connectivity). To test the hypothesis that pathological increases or decreases in these synaptic properties could underlie imbalances at the level of basic neural network function, we explored each type of malfunction in a simulation of autoassociative memory. These network simulations revealed that one impact of impairments or excesses in each of these synaptic properties is to shift the trade-off between pattern separation and pattern completion performance during memory storage and recall. Each type of synaptic pathology either pushed the network balance towards intolerable error in pattern separation or intolerable error in pattern completion. Imbalances caused by pathological impairments or excesses in LTP, LTD, inhibition, or connectivity, could all be exacerbated, or rescued, by the simultaneous modulation of any of the other three synaptic properties. Because appropriate modulation of any of the synaptic properties could help re-balance network function, regardless of the origins of the imbalance, we propose a new strategy of personalized cognitive therapeutics guided by assay of pattern completion vs. pattern separation function. Simulated examples and testable predictions of this theorized approach to cognitive therapeutics are presented.

A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Zhongmin; Li, Yujie; Hu, Yiming; Li, Binquan; Wang, Jun

2017-06-01

Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.

Short-term Memory as a Processing Shift

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis-Smith, Marion Quinn

1975-01-01

The series of experiments described here examined the predictions for free recall from sequential models and the shift formulation, focusing on the roles of short- and long-term memory in the primacy/recency shift and on the effects of expectancies on short- and long-term memory. (Author/RK)

Long-term sickness absence due to adjustment disorder.

PubMed

Catalina-Romero, C; Pastrana-Jiménez, J I; Tenas-López, M J; Martínez-Muñoz, P; Ruiz-Moraga, M; Fernández-Labandera, C; Calvo-Bonacho, E

2012-07-01

Although adjustment disorder is frequently reported in clinical settings, scientific evidence is scarce regarding its impact on sickness absence and the variables associated with sickness absence duration. To report sickness absence duration and to identify predictors of long-term sickness absence in patients with adjustment disorder. This observational, prospective study included subjects with non-work-related sickness absence (>15 days) after a diagnosis of adjustment disorder. A stepwise logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the best predictors of long-term sickness absence (≥ 6 months). There were 1182 subjects in the final analysis. The median duration of sickness absence due to adjustment disorder was 91 days. Twenty-two per cent of the subjects reported long-term sickness absence. After multivariate analysis, comorbidity (OR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.43-3.49), age (25-34 years old versus <25 years old: OR = 2.78, 95% CI 1.27-6.07; 35-44 years old versus <25 years old: OR = 3.70, 95% CI 1.71-7.99; 45-54 years old versus <25 years old: OR = 3.58, 95% CI 1.60-8.02; ≥ 55 years old versus <25 years old: OR = 6.35, 95% CI 2.64-15.31) and occupational level (blue collar versus white collar: OR = 1.52, 95% CI 1.10-2.09) remained significantly associated with long-term sickness absence. Comorbidity was the strongest predictor. It is possible to predict long-term sickness absence due to adjustment disorder on the basis of demographic, work-related and clinical information available during the basic assessment of the patient.

Creatinine kinase isoenzyme-MB: A simple prognostic biomarker in patients with pulmonary embolism treated with thrombolytic therapy.

PubMed

Bozbay, Mehmet; Uyarel, Huseyin; Avsar, Sahin; Oz, Ahmet; Keskin, Muhammed; Tanik, Veysel Ozan; Bakhshaliyev, Nijat; Ugur, Murat; Pehlivanoglu, Seckin; Eren, Mehmet

2015-12-01

Creatinine kinase isoenzyme-MB (CK-MB) is a biomarker for detecting myocardial injury. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between admission CK-MB levels and in-hospital and long-term clinical outcomes in pulmonary embolism (PE) patients treated with thrombolytic tissue-plasminogen activator. A total of 148 acute PE patients treated with tissue-plasminogen activator enrolled in the study. The study population was divided into 2 tertiles, based on admission CK-MB levels. The high CK-MB group (n=35) was defined as having a CK-MB level in the third tertile (>31.5 U/L), and the low group (n=113) was defined as having a level in the lower 2 tertiles (≤31.5 U/L). High CK-MB group had a higher incidence of in-hospital mortality (37.1% vs 1.7%, P<.001). Admission systolic blood pressure and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion were lower in the high CK-MB group. In the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, a CK-MB value of more than 31.5 U/L yielded a sensitivity of 86.7% and specificity of 83.5% for predicting in-hospital mortality. During long-term follow-up, recurrent PE, major and minor bleeding, and mortality rates were similar in both groups. Creatinine kinase isoenzyme-MB is a simple, widely available, and useful biomarker for predicting adverse in-hospital clinical outcomes in PE. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Role of subdural electrocorticography in prediction of long-term seizure outcome in epilepsy surgery

PubMed Central

Juhász, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

2009-01-01

Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age 0.4–23.0 years), who underwent extraoperative ECoG recording prior to cortical resection for alleviation of uncontrolled focal seizures. Patient age, frequency of preoperative seizures, neuroimaging findings, ictal and interictal ECoG measures were preoperatively obtained. The seizure outcome was prospectively measured [follow-up period: 2.5–6.4 years (mean 4.6 years)]. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses determined how well preoperative demographic and diagnostic measures predicted long-term seizure outcome. Following the initial cortical resection, Engel Class I, II, III and IV outcomes were noted in 35, 6, 12 and 7 patients, respectively. One child died due to disseminated intravascular coagulation associated with pseudomonas sepsis 2 days after surgery. Univariate regression analyses revealed that incomplete removal of seizure onset zone, higher interictal spike-frequency in the preserved cortex and incomplete removal of cortical abnormalities on neuroimaging were associated with a greater risk of failing to obtain Class I outcome. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that incomplete removal of seizure onset zone was the only independent predictor of failure to obtain Class I outcome. The goodness of regression model fit and the predictive ability of regression model were greatest in the full regression model incorporating both ictal and interictal measures [R2 0.44; Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: 0.81], slightly smaller in the reduced model incorporating ictal but not interictal measures (R2 0.40; Area under the ROC curve: 0.79) and slightly smaller again in the reduced model incorporating interictal but not ictal measures (R2 0.27; Area under the ROC curve: 0.77). Seizure onset zone and interictal spike frequency measures on subdural ECoG recording may both be useful in predicting the long-term seizure outcome of epilepsy surgery. Yet, the additive clinical impact of interictal spike frequency measures to predict long-term surgical outcome may be modest in the presence of ictal ECoG and neuroimaging data. PMID:19286694

Development and status of data quality assurance program at NASA Langley research center: Toward national standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemsch, Michael J.

1996-01-01

As part of a continuing effort to re-engineer the wind tunnel testing process, a comprehensive data quality assurance program is being established at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The ultimate goal of the program is routing provision of tunnel-to-tunnel reproducibility with total uncertainty levels acceptable for test and evaluation of civilian transports. The operational elements for reaching such levels of reproducibility are: (1) statistical control, which provides long term measurement uncertainty predictability and a base for continuous improvement, (2) measurement uncertainty prediction, which provides test designs that can meet data quality expectations with the system's predictable variation, and (3) national standards, which provide a means for resolving tunnel-to-tunnel differences. The paper presents the LaRC design for the program and discusses the process of implementation.

Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT[R] Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average. ACT Research Report Series, 2012 (5)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

2012-01-01

This study compared the effectiveness of ACT[R] Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours earned), degree completion, and cumulative grade point average (GPA) at 150% of normal time to degree…

Vitamin D status among long-term survivors of testicular cancer.

PubMed

Schepisi, Giuseppe; De Padova, Silvia; Scarpi, Emanuela; Lolli, Cristian; Gurioli, Giorgia; Menna, Cecilia; Burgio, Salvatore L; Rossi, Lorena; Gallà, Valentina; Casadio, Valentina; Salvi, Samanta; Conteduca, Vincenza; De Giorgi, Ugo

2017-05-30

A correlation between disturbances in hormone levels and the onset of metabolic disorders has been reported in long-term survivors of testicular cancer (TC).We evaluated serum vitamin D levels and other biological parameters in a consecutive series of 61 long-term (≥3 years) unilateral TC survivors with a median a follow-up of 4 years and in a cohort of healthy males. Deficient vitamin D levels were observed in 10 (17%) of the 58 long-term unilateral TC survivors but were not reported in healthy males (p=.019, Fisher test). Median vitamin D levels were 18.6 ug/L in 58 assessable TC survivors and 23.6 ug/L in 40 healthy males (p=.031). In univariate logistic regression analysis, TC diagnosis was associated with inadequate levels of vitamin D (p=.047). Vitamin D levels were lower when follow-up was > 10 years, albeit this difference was not statistically significant (p=.074). Long-term (especially > 10 years) TC survivors may have difficulty maintaining optimal vitamin D levels. Larger studies are needed to better characterize vitamin D status and possible correlations with premature hormonal aging reported in long-term TC survivors.

Long-term care-service use and increases in care-need level among home-based elderly people in a Japanese urban area.

PubMed

Koike, Soichi; Furui, Yuji

2013-04-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of home-based long-term care insurance services on an increase in care need levels and discuss its policy implications. We analyzed care need certification and long-term care service use data for 3006 non-institutionalized elderly persons in a Tokyo ward effective as of October 2009 and 2010. Individual care need assessment intervals and their corresponding changes in care need level were calculated from data at two data acquisition points of care need assessment. Those who had been certified but did not use any long-term care insurance service were defined as the control group. The Cox proportionate hazard model was used to determine whether the use of a long-term care insurance service is associated with increased care need level. After adjusting for sex, age, and care need level, the hazard ratio for the probability of increased care need level among service users was calculated as 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.88; p < 0.001). Home-based long-term care service use may prevent an increase in care need level. Administrative data on care need certification and services use could be an effective tool for evaluating the long-term care insurance system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long Range Weather Prediction III: Miniaturized Distributed Sensors for Global Atmospheric Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teller, E; Leith, C; Canavan, G

2001-11-13

We continue consideration of ways-and-means for creating, in an evolutionary, ever-more-powerful manner, a continually-updated data-base of salient atmospheric properties sufficient for finite differenced integration-based, high-fidelity weather prediction over intervals of 2-3 weeks, leveraging the 10{sup 14} FLOPS digital computing systems now coming into existence. A constellation comprised of 10{sup 6}-10{sup 9} small atmospheric sampling systems--high-tech superpressure balloons carrying early 21st century semiconductor devices, drifting with the local winds over the meteorological spectrum of pressure-altitudes--that assays all portions of the troposphere and lower stratosphere remains the central feature of the proposed system. We suggest that these devices should be active-signaling, rather than passive-transponding, as we had previously proposed only for the ground- and aquatic-situated sensors of this system. Instead of periodic interrogation of the intra-atmospheric transponder population by a constellation of sophisticated small satellites in low Earth orbit, we now propose to retrieve information from the instrumented balloon constellation by existing satellite telephony systems, acting as cellular tower-nodes in a global cellular telephony system whose ''user-set'' is the atmospheric-sampling and surface-level monitoring constellations. We thereby leverage the huge investment in cellular (satellite) telephony and GPS technologies, with large technical and economic gains. This proposal minimizes sponsor forward commitment along its entire programmatic trajectory, and moreover may return data of weather-predictive value soon after field activities commence. We emphasize its high near-term value for making better mesoscale, relatively short-term weather predictions with computing-intensive means, and its great long-term utility in enhancing the meteorological basis for global change predictive studies. We again note that adverse impacts of weather involve continuing costs of the order of 1% of GDP, a large fraction of which could be retrieved if high-fidelity predictions of two weeks forward applicability were available. These {approx}more » $$10{sup 2} B annual savings dwarf the <$$1 B costs of operating a rational, long-range weather prediction system of the type proposed.« less

Long Range Weather Prediction III: Miniaturized Distributed Sensors for Global Atmospheric Measurements

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Teller, E.; Leith, C.; Canavan, G.; Wood, L.

2001-11-13

We continue consideration of ways-and-means for creating, in an evolutionary, ever-more-powerful manner, a continually-updated data-base of salient atmospheric properties sufficient for finite differenced integration-based, high-fidelity weather prediction over intervals of 2-3 weeks, leveraging the 10{sup 14} FLOPS digital computing systems now coming into existence. A constellation comprised of 10{sup 6}-10{sup 9} small atmospheric sampling systems--high-tech superpressure balloons carrying early 21st century semiconductor devices, drifting with the local winds over the meteorological spectrum of pressure-altitudes--that assays all portions of the troposphere and lower stratosphere remains the central feature of the proposed system. We suggest that these devices should be active-signaling, rather than passive-transponding, as we had previously proposed only for the ground- and aquatic-situated sensors of this system. Instead of periodic interrogation of the intra-atmospheric transponder population by a constellation of sophisticated small satellites in low Earth orbit, we now propose to retrieve information from the instrumented balloon constellation by existing satellite telephony systems, acting as cellular tower-nodes in a global cellular telephony system whose ''user-set'' is the atmospheric-sampling and surface-level monitoring constellations. We thereby leverage the huge investment in cellular (satellite) telephony and GPS technologies, with large technical and economic gains. This proposal minimizes sponsor forward commitment along its entire programmatic trajectory, and moreover may return data of weather-predictive value soon after field activities commence. We emphasize its high near-term value for making better mesoscale, relatively short-term weather predictions with computing-intensive means, and its great long-term utility in enhancing the meteorological basis for global change predictive studies. We again note that adverse impacts of weather involve continuing costs of the order of 1% of GDP, a large fraction of which could be retrieved if high-fidelity predictions of two weeks forward applicability were available. These{approx}$10{sup 2} B annual savings dwarf the<$1 B costs of operating a rational, long-range weather prediction system of the type proposed.

Rich Medium Composition Affects Escherichia coli Survival, Glycation, and Mutation Frequency during Long-Term Batch Culture.

PubMed

Kram, Karin E; Finkel, Steven E

2015-07-01

Bacteria such as Escherichia coli are frequently grown to high density to produce biomolecules for study in the laboratory. To achieve this, cells can be incubated in extremely rich media that increase overall cell yield. In these various media, bacteria may have different metabolic profiles, leading to changes in the amounts of toxic metabolites produced. We have previously shown that stresses experienced during short-term growth can affect the survival of cells during the long-term stationary phase (LTSP). Here, we incubated cells in LB, 2× yeast extract-tryptone (YT), Terrific Broth, or Super Broth medium and monitored survival during the LTSP, as well as other reporters of genetic and physiological change. We observe differential cell yield and survival in all media studied. We propose that differences in long-term survival are the result of changes in the metabolism of components of the media that may lead to increased levels of protein and/or DNA damage. We also show that culture pH and levels of protein glycation, a covalent modification that causes protein damage, affect long-term survival. Further, we measured mutation frequency after overnight incubation and observed a correlation between high mutation frequencies at the end of the log phase and loss of viability after 4 days of LTSP incubation, indicating that mutation frequency is potentially predictive of long-term survival. Since glycation and mutation can be caused by oxidative stress, we measured expression of the oxyR oxidative stress regulator during log-phase growth and found that higher levels of oxyR expression during the log phase are consistent with high mutation frequency and lower cell density during the LTSP. Since these complex rich media are often used when producing large quantities of biomolecules in the laboratory, the observed increase in damage resulting in glycation or mutation may lead to production of a heterogeneous population of plasmids or proteins, which could affect the quality of the end products yielded in some laboratory experiments. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

PubMed Central

Kanamori, H

1996-01-01

For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding. Images Fig. 8 PMID:11607657

Anomalous secular sea-level acceleration in the Baltic Sea caused by glacial isostatic adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, Giorgio; Galassi, Gaia; Olivieri, Marco

2014-05-01

Observations from the global array of tide gauges show that global sea-level has been rising at an average rate of 1.5-2 mm/yr during the last ˜ 150 years (Spada & Galassi, 2012). Although a global sea-level acceleration was initially ruled out, subsequent studies have coherently proposed values of ˜1 mm/year/century (Olivieri & Spada, 2012). More complex non-linear trends and abrupt sea-level variations have now also been recognized. Globally, they could manifest a regime shift between the late Holocene and the current rhythms of sea-level rise, while locally they result from ocean circulation anomalies, steric effects and wind stress (Bromirski et al. 2011). Although isostatic readjustment affects the local rates of secular sea-level change, a possible impact on regional acceleration have been so far discounted (Woodworth et al., 2009) since the process evolves on a millennium scale. Here we report a previously unnoticed anomaly in the long-term sea-level acceleration of the Baltic Sea tide gauge records, and we explain it by the classical post-glacial rebound theory and numerical modeling of glacial isostasy. Contrary to previous assumptions, our findings demonstrate that isostatic compensation plays a role in the regional secular sea-level acceleration. In response to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), tide gauge records located along the coasts of the Baltic Sea exhibit a small - but significant - long-term sea-level acceleration in excess to those in the far field of previously glaciated regions. The sign and the amplitude of the anomaly is consistent with the post-glacial rebound theory and with realistic numerical predictions of GIA models routinely employed to decontaminate the tide gauges observations from the GIA effects (Peltier, 2004). Model computations predict the existence of anomalies of similar amplitude in other regions of the globe where GIA is still particularly vigorous at present, but no long-term instrumental observations are available to support their existence. We confirm that a GIA correction for secular sea-level acceleration is not required in GSLA assessments because its average value is vanishingly small at the locations of the PSMSL tide gauges (Douglas, 1992). Nevertheless, GIA is contributing significantly on a regional scale, and therefore it should be recognized as one of the processes responsible for local, long-term sea-level acceleration. Reference: Bromirski, P.D., Miller, A.J., Flick, R.E. & Auad, G., 2011, J. Geoph. Res. 116, C07005; Douglas, B.C., 1992, J. Geoph. Res. 97, 12,699-12,706; Olivieri, M. & Spada, G., 2013, Global Planet. Change 109, 64-72; Peltier, W.R., 2004, Annu. Rev. Earth. Pl. Sc. 32, 111-149; Spada, G. & Galassi, G., 2012, Geophys. J. Int. 191, 1067-1094; Woodworth, P.L., White, N. J., Jevrejeva, S., Holgate, S. J., Church, J. A. & Gehrels, W. R., 2009, Int. J. Climatol. 29, 777-789.

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core-Concrete Interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.; Farmer, Mitchell T.; Francis, Matthew W.

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for the analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, in this paper an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 weremore » used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH. For the MELCOR-based melt pour scenario, CORQUENCH predicted the melt would readily cool within 2.5 h after the pour, and the sumps would experience limited ablation (approximately 18 cm) under water-flooded conditions. Finally, for the MAAP-based melt pour scenarios, CORQUENCH predicted that the melt would cool in approximately 22.5 h, and the sumps would experience approximately 65 cm of concrete ablation under water-flooded conditions.« less

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core-Concrete Interaction

DOE PAGES

Robb, Kevin R.; Farmer, Mitchell T.; Francis, Matthew W.

2016-10-31

Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for the analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, in this paper an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 weremore » used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH. For the MELCOR-based melt pour scenario, CORQUENCH predicted the melt would readily cool within 2.5 h after the pour, and the sumps would experience limited ablation (approximately 18 cm) under water-flooded conditions. Finally, for the MAAP-based melt pour scenarios, CORQUENCH predicted that the melt would cool in approximately 22.5 h, and the sumps would experience approximately 65 cm of concrete ablation under water-flooded conditions.« less

Myocardial recovery during mechanical circulatory support: long-term outcome and elective ventricular assist device implantation to promote recovery as a treatment goal.

PubMed

Dandel, Michael; Hetzer, Roland

2015-01-01

Even after incomplete myocardial recovery during mechanical circulatory support, long-term survival rates after ventricular assist device (VAD) explantation can be better than those expected after heart transplantation even for patients with chronic non-ischemic cardiomyopathy as the underlying cause for VAD implantation. The elective therapeutic use of ventricular assist devices for heart failure reversal in its early stage is a future goal. It may be possible to achieve it by developing tools to predict heart failure reversibility even before ventricular assist device implantation and increasing the number of weaning candidates by improvement of adjunctive therapies to optimize unloading-promoted recovery.  Special attention is focused on the long-term stability of cardiac remission after VAD removal, the clinical relevance unloading-promoted myocardial recovery and on the current knowledge about a potential prediction of myocardial recovery during long-term VAD support already before VAD implantation.

On the simple random-walk models of ion-channel gate dynamics reflecting long-term memory.

PubMed

Wawrzkiewicz, Agata; Pawelek, Krzysztof; Borys, Przemyslaw; Dworakowska, Beata; Grzywna, Zbigniew J

2012-06-01

Several approaches to ion-channel gating modelling have been proposed. Although many models describe the dwell-time distributions correctly, they are incapable of predicting and explaining the long-term correlations between the lengths of adjacent openings and closings of a channel. In this paper we propose two simple random-walk models of the gating dynamics of voltage and Ca(2+)-activated potassium channels which qualitatively reproduce the dwell-time distributions, and describe the experimentally observed long-term memory quite well. Biological interpretation of both models is presented. In particular, the origin of the correlations is associated with fluctuations of channel mass density. The long-term memory effect, as measured by Hurst R/S analysis of experimental single-channel patch-clamp recordings, is close to the behaviour predicted by our models. The flexibility of the models enables their use as templates for other types of ion channel.

Marijuana effects on long-term memory assessment and retrieval.

PubMed

Darley, C F; Tinklenberg, J R; Roth, W T; Vernon, S; Kopell, B S

1977-05-09

The ability of 16 college-educated male subjects to recall from long-term memory a series of common facts was tested during intoxication with marijuana extract calibrated to 0.3 mg/kg delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol and during placebo conditions. The subjects' ability to assess their memory capabilities was then determined by measuring how certain they were about the accuracy of their recall performance and by having them predict their performance on a subsequent recognition test involving the same recall items. Marijuana had no effect on recall or recognition performance. These results do not support the view that marijuana provides access to facts in long-term storage which are inaccessible during non-intoxication. During both marijuana and placebo conditions, subjects could accurately predict their recognition memory performance. Hence, marijuana did not alter the subjects' ability to accurately assess what information resides in long-term memory even though they did not have complete access to that information.

Long-term systemic metal distribution in patients with stainless steel spinal instrumentation: a case-control study.

PubMed

Savarino, Lucia; Greggi, Tiziana; Martikos, Konstantinos; Lolli, Francesco; Greco, Michelina; Baldini, Nicola

2015-04-01

Case-control study. To verify whether metal ions in the serum of patients bearing spinal stainless steel instrumentation were elevated over the long-term period after implantation of stainless steel prostheses and to determine whether these levels could predict potential unfavorable outcomes. Instrumented spinal arthrodesis, the standard procedure to correct scoliosis, routinely remains in situ for the lifetime of the patient. Elevated metal ion levels have been reported at short-term follow-up, but the long-term status, possibly related to systemic toxic effects, is unknown. Twenty-two patients treated for scoliosis with posterior spinal arthrodesis using stainless steel instrumentation were included. Minimum follow-up was 10 years. Oswestry Disability Index and visual analog scale were recorded. Chromium (Cr) and nickel (Ni) levels were measured (ng/mL) and compared with levels in a control group including 30 healthy subjects. A receiver-operating characteristic curve was calculated on the basis of the clinical assessment (pain and disability) and the x-ray picture; the cutoff values for the parameters were settled, and the ion-testing potential was considered as a surrogate marker for failure. The level of Cr was significantly increased in patients, compared with controls (P=0.018). A remarkable Cr release without any clinical-radiologic sign was recorded in some female patients. A high specificity (93%), positive likelihood ratio (7.00), and overall accuracy (77%) were calculated for Cr; these indicate a high risk of failure when the levels exceeded the cutoff value, which was 0.6 ng/mL. No significant difference between the groups was found for Ni (P=0.7). Cr testing is suggested as a reliable marker for the malfunctioning assessment and as a support for standard procedures, especially with doubtful diagnosis. Furthermore, high levels of Cr ions were observed in female patients. This finding deserves attention especially when counseling young fertile women.

Daily activity level improvement with antidepressant medications predicts long-term clinical outcomes in outpatients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Jha, Manish K; Teer, Raymond B; Minhajuddin, Abu; Greer, Tracy L; Rush, A John; Trivedi, Madhukar H

2017-01-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) significantly impacts performance of both work- and nonwork-related routine daily activities. We have shown that work productivity is significantly impaired in employed MDD patients, but the extent of impairments in nonwork-related routine activities and its association with antidepressant treatment outcomes has not been established. Activity impairment was measured using the sixth item of Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Scale in the Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcomes (CO-MED) trial (n=665). Published norms were used to define activity impairment levels. The relationship between activity impairment and baseline sociodemographic and clinical characteristics was evaluated along with changes in activity impairment and its relationship with other clinical outcomes such as symptom severity, function, and side effect burden. Remission status at 3 and 7 months was predicted based on week 6 activity impairment level. Higher psychosocial and cognitive impairments and greater number of comorbid medical conditions were associated with greater activity impairment at baseline. Proportion of participants with severe activity impairment declined from 47.6% at baseline to 18.7% at 3 months, while mean activity impairment decreased from 57.1 at baseline to 32.8 at 3 months. During course of treatment, levels of activity impairment correlated most strongly with psychosocial function among measures of symptom severity, function, quality of life, and side effect burden. No or minimal activity impairment at week 6 was associated with two to three times higher rates of remission at 3 and 7 months as compared to moderate or severe activity impairment levels even after controlling for remission status at week 6 and select baseline variables. Depressed patients have high levels of nonwork-related activity impairment at baseline that improves significantly with treatment and independently predicts long-term clinical outcomes. Brief systematic assessment of activity impairment during the course of antidepressant treatment can help inform clinical decision-making.

Oxidative stress in birds along a NOx and urbanisation gradient: An interspecific approach.

PubMed

Salmón, Pablo; Stroh, Emilie; Herrera-Dueñas, Amparo; von Post, Maria; Isaksson, Caroline

2018-05-01

Urbanisation is regarded as one of the most threatening global issues for wildlife, however, measuring its impact is not always straight forward. Oxidative stress physiology has been suggested to be a useful biomarker of health and therefore, a potentially important indicator of the impact that urban environmental stressors, especially air pollution, can have on wildlife. For example, nitrogen oxides (NO x ), released during incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, are highly potent pro-oxidants, thus predicted to affect either the protective antioxidants and/or cause oxidative damage to bio-molecules. To date, epidemiological modelling of the predicted association between oxidative stress and NO x exposure has not been performed in wild animals. Here, we address this short-coming, by investigating multiple oxidative stress markers in four common passerine bird species, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), great tit (Parus major), house sparrow (Passer domesticus) and tree sparrow (Passer montanus), living along a gradient of NO x and urbanisation levels in southern Sweden. First of all, the results revealed that long- and medium-term (one month and one week, respectively) NO x levels were highly correlated with the level of urbanisation. This confirms that the commonly used urbanisation index is a reliable proxy for urban air pollution. Furthermore, in accordance to our prediction, individuals exposed to higher long- and medium-term NO x levels/urbanisation had higher plasma antioxidant capacity. However, only tree sparrows showed higher oxidative damage (protein carbonyls) in relation to NO x levels and this association was absent with urbanisation. Lipid peroxidation, glutathione and superoxide dismutase levels did not co-vary with NO x /urbanisation. Given that most oxidative stress biomarkers showed strong species-specificity, independent of variation in NO x /urbanisation, the present study highlights the need to study variation in oxidative stress across contexts, seasons and life-stages in order to understand how the ecology and phylogeny of species interact to affect species resilience to urban environmental stress. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.

PubMed

Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A

2016-03-01

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Serum levels of enclomiphene and zuclomiphene in men with hypogonadism on long-term clomiphene citrate treatment.

PubMed

Helo, Sevann; Mahon, Joseph; Ellen, Joseph; Wiehle, Ron; Fontenot, Gregory; Hsu, Kuang; Feustel, Paul; Welliver, Charles; McCullough, Andrew

2017-01-01

To determine the relative concentrations of enclomiphene (ENC) and zuclomiphene (ZUC) isomers in men with hypogonadism on long-term clomiphene citrate (CC) therapy, and to determine whether patient age, body mass index (BMI) or duration of therapy were predictive of relative concentrations of ENC and ZUC. Men already receiving CC 25 mg daily therapy for secondary hypogonadism for a minimum of 6 weeks were recruited to have their ENC and ZUC levels assessed. Total testosterone, free testosterone, oestradiol, follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), and luteinizing hormone (LH) before initiation of and while on CC therapy were recorded for all patients. Patient demographics including age, BMI and medical comorbidites were recorded. Serum samples were obtained at the time of enrolment to determine ENC and ZUC concentrations. A total of 15 men were enrolled in the period from June 2015 to August 2015. The median (range) patient age was 36 (22-70) years, BMI 32.0 (21.1-40.3) kg/m 2 and duration of treatment 25.9 (1.7-86.6) months. Baseline median total testosterone, oestradiol and LH levels were 205.0 ng/dL, 17.0 pg/mL and 4.0 mlU/mL, respectively. The post-treatment median total testosterone, oestradiol and LH level increased to 488.0 ng/dL, 34.0 pg/mL and 6.1 mIU/mL, respectively (all P<0.001). The median ENC and ZUC concentrations were 2.2 and 44.0 ng/mL, respectively. After at least 6 weeks of CC therapy, the median ZUC: ENC serum concentration ratio was 20:1. On linear regression analysis. patient age, BMI, duration of treatment and serum testosterone levels were not predictive of ENC or ZUC concentrations. Long-term CC therapy resulted in a significant alteration of ENC and ZUC concentrations, with ZUC as the predominant isomer. Given the vastly different biochemical and toxicological properties of ENC and ZUC, this study supports the need for the development of a pure selective oestrogen receptor antagonist for the treatment of men with hypogonadism. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Why Is It Difficult to Predict Language Impairment and Outcome in Patients with Aphasia after Stroke?

PubMed Central

Kasselimis, Dimitrios; Varkanitsa, Maria; Selai, Caroline; Potagas, Constantin; Evdokimidis, Ioannis

2014-01-01

One of the most devastating consequences of stroke is aphasia. Communication problems after stroke can severely impair the patient's quality of life and make even simple everyday tasks challenging. Despite intense research in the field of aphasiology, the type of language impairment has not yet been localized and correlated with brain damage, making it difficult to predict the language outcome for stroke patients with aphasia. Our primary objective is to present the available evidence that highlights the difficulties of predicting language impairment after stroke. The different levels of complexity involved in predicting the lesion site from language impairment and ultimately predicting the long-term outcome in stroke patients with aphasia were explored. Future directions and potential implications for research and clinical practice are highlighted. PMID:24829592

Influence of family environment on long-term psychosocial functioning of adolescents with juvenile fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Sil, Soumitri; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Ting, Tracy V; Peugh, James; Noll, Jennie; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2013-06-01

Little is known about the impact of family environment on the long-term adjustment of patients with juvenile-onset fibromyalgia (JFM). Our objective was to evaluate whether family environment in early adolescence predicted later physical functioning and depressive symptoms of adolescents with JFM as they transitioned to early adulthood in the context of a controlled long-term followup study. Participants consisted of 39 youth (mean age 18.7 years) with JFM and 38 healthy matched controls who completed web-based surveys about their health status (Short Form 36 health survey) and depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory II) ~4 years after a home-based, in-person assessment of child and family functioning. During the initial assessment, parents of the participants (94% mothers) completed the Family Environment Scale and adolescents (mean age 14.8 years) completed self-report questionnaires about pain (visual analog scale) and depressive symptoms (Children's Depression Inventory). The results indicated that family environment during early adolescence significantly predicted greater depressive symptoms in early adulthood for both the JFM group and the healthy controls. In particular, a controlling family environment (use of rules to control the family and allowing little independence) during early adolescence was the driving factor in predicting poorer long-term emotional functioning for patients with JFM. Family environment did not significantly predict longer-term physical impairment for either group. Adolescents with JFM from controlling family environments are at an increased risk for poorer emotional functioning in early adulthood. Behavioral and family interventions should foster independent coping among adolescents with JFM and greater parenting flexibility to enhance successful long-term coping. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Long-term CO2 fertilization increases vegetation productivity and has little effect on hydrological partitioning in tropical rainforests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yuting; Donohue, Randall J.; McVicar, Tim R.; Roderick, Michael L.; Beck, Hylke E.

2016-08-01

Understanding how tropical rainforests respond to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) is essential for predicting Earth's carbon, water, and energy budgets under future climate change. Here we use long-term (1982-2010) precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) measurements to infer runoff coefficient (Q/P) and evapotranspiration (E) trends across 18 unimpaired tropical rainforest catchments. We complement that analysis by using satellite observations coupled with ecosystem process modeling (using both "top-down" and "bottom-up" perspectives) to examine trends in carbon uptake and relate that to the observed changes in Q/P and E. Our results show there have been only minor changes in the satellite-observed canopy leaf area over 1982-2010, suggesting that eCO2 has not increased vegetation leaf area in tropical rainforests and therefore any plant response to eCO2 occurs at the leaf level. Meanwhile, observed Q/P and E also remained relatively constant in the 18 catchments, implying an unchanged hydrological partitioning and thus approximately conserved transpiration under eCO2. For the same period, using a top-down model based on gas exchange theory, we predict increases in plant assimilation (A) and light use efficiency (ɛ) at the leaf level under eCO2, the magnitude of which is essentially that of eCO2 (i.e., 12% over 1982-2010). Simulations from 10 state-of-the-art bottom-up ecosystem models over the same catchments also show that the direct effect of eCO2 is to mostly increase A and ɛ with little impact on E. Our findings add to the current limited pool of knowledge regarding the long-term eCO2 impacts in tropical rainforests.

The influence of solid rocket motor retro-burns on the space debris environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stabroth, Sebastian; Homeister, Maren; Oswald, Michael; Wiedemann, Carsten; Klinkrad, Heiner; Vörsmann, Peter

The ESA space debris population model MASTER (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) considers firings of solid rocket motors (SRM) as a debris source with the associated generation of slag and dust particles. The resulting slag and dust population is a major contribution to the sub-millimetre size debris environment in Earth orbit. The current model version, MASTER-2005, is based on the simulation of 1076 orbital SRM firings which contributed to the long-term debris environment. A comparison of the modelled flux with impact data from returned surfaces shows that the shape and quantity of the modelled SRM dust distribution matches that of recent Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array measurements very well. However, the absolute flux level for dust is under-predicted for some of the analysed Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) surfaces. This points into the direction of some past SRM firings not included in the current event database. The most suitable candidates for these firings are the large number of SRM retro-burns of return capsules. Objects released by those firings have highly eccentric orbits with perigees in the lower regions of the atmosphere. Thus, they produce no long-term effect on the debris environment. However, a large number of those firings during the on-orbit time frame of LDEF might lead to an increase of the dust population for some of the LDEF surfaces. In this paper, the influence of SRM retro-burns on the short- and long-term debris environment is analysed. The existing firing database is updated with gathered information of some 800 Russian retro-firings. Each firing is simulated with the MASTER population generation module. The resulting population is compared against the existing background population of SRM slag and dust particles in terms of spatial density and flux predictions.

Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

2011-01-10

Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

Use of short-term toxicity data for prediction of long-term health effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartley, W.R.; Ohanian, E.V.

1988-01-01

Under the Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1986, the US Environmental Protection Agency determines Maximum Contaminant Level Goals (MCLGs) and enforceable Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) or provides lifetime health advisories (HAs) in the absence of regulatory standards. The critical value for calculation of the lifetime level is the reference dose (RfD). The RfD is an estimate of a lifetime dose which is likely to be without significant risk to human populations. The RfD is determined by dividing the no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) or the lowest-observed-adverse-effect level (LOAEL) by an uncertainty factor (UF). The NOAEL or LOAEL is determined from toxicologicalmore » or epidemiological studies. For many chemicals, human toxicological or epidemiological data are not available. Chronic mammalian studies are sometimes unavailable. Faced with the need for providing guidance for the increasing number of chemicals threatening our drinking water sources, this paper considers the possibility of providing provisional RfDs using data from toxicological studies of less than ninety days duration. The current UF approach is reviewed along with some proposed mathematical models for extrapolation of NOAELs from dose-response data. The current UF approach to developing the RfD is protective and conservative. More research is needed on the relationship of short- and long-term toxicity data to improve our current approach.« less

Does Cognitive Impairment and Agitation in Dementia Influence Intervention Effectiveness? Findings From a Cluster-RCT With the Therapeutic Robot, PARO.

PubMed

Jones, Cindy; Moyle, Wendy; Murfield, Jenny; Draper, Brian; Shum, David; Beattie, Elizabeth; Thalib, Lukman

2018-04-13

To explore whether severity of cognitive impairment and agitation of older people with dementia predict outcomes in engagement, mood states, and agitation after a 10-week intervention with the robotic seal, PARO. Data from the PARO intervention-arm of a cluster-randomized controlled trial was used, which involved individual, nonfacilitated, 15-minute sessions with PARO 3 afternoons per week for 10 weeks. One hundred thirty-eight residents-aged ≥60 years, with dementia-from 9 long-term care facilities. A series of stepwise multiple linear regressions were conducted. Dependent variables were participants' levels of engagement, mood states, and agitation at week 10 [assessed by video observation and Cohen Mansfield Agitation Inventory-Short Form (CMAI-SF)]. Predictor variables were baseline levels of cognitive impairment [assessed by Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale (RUDAS)] and agitation (CMAI-SF). Five models were produced. The strongest finding was that participants with more severe agitation at baseline had higher levels of agitation at week 10 (R 2  = .82, P < .001). Predictors of positive response were less significant. Low levels of agitation at baseline predicted greater positive behavioral engagement with PARO (R 2  = .054, P = .009) and fewer observed instances of agitation (R 2  = .033, P = .045) at week 10, whereas greater visual engagement was predicted by both lower levels of agitation and cognitive impairment (R 2  = .082, P = .006). Less severe cognitive impairment predicted greater pleasure at week 10 (R 2  = .067, P = .004). Participants with severe agitation had poor response to PARO. Lower levels of agitation and higher cognitive functioning were associated with better responses. In clinical practice, we recommend PARO should be restricted to people with low-moderate severity of agitation. Further research is needed to determine the optimal participant characteristics for response to PARO. Copyright © 2018 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weather models as virtual sensors to data-driven rainfall predictions in urban watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cozzi, Lorenzo; Galelli, Stefano; Pascal, Samuel Jolivet De Marc; Castelletti, Andrea

2013-04-01

Weather and climate predictions are a key element of urban hydrology where they are used to inform water management and assist in flood warning delivering. Indeed, the modelling of the very fast dynamics of urbanized catchments can be substantially improved by the use of weather/rainfall predictions. For example, in Singapore Marina Reservoir catchment runoff processes have a very short time of concentration (roughly one hour) and observational data are thus nearly useless for runoff predictions and weather prediction are required. Unfortunately, radar nowcasting methods do not allow to carrying out long - term weather predictions, whereas numerical models are limited by their coarse spatial scale. Moreover, numerical models are usually poorly reliable because of the fast motion and limited spatial extension of rainfall events. In this study we investigate the combined use of data-driven modelling techniques and weather variables observed/simulated with a numerical model as a way to improve rainfall prediction accuracy and lead time in the Singapore metropolitan area. To explore the feasibility of the approach, we use a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a virtual sensor network for the input variables (the states of the WRF model) to a machine learning rainfall prediction model. More precisely, we combine an input variable selection method and a non-parametric tree-based model to characterize the empirical relation between the rainfall measured at the catchment level and all possible weather input variables provided by WRF model. We explore different lead time to evaluate the model reliability for different long - term predictions, as well as different time lags to see how past information could improve results. Results show that the proposed approach allow a significant improvement of the prediction accuracy of the WRF model on the Singapore urban area.

Pre- and Posttransplant IgA Anti-Fab Antibodies to Predict Long-term Kidney Graft Survival.

PubMed

Amirzargar, M A; Amirzargar, A; Basiri, A; Hajilooi, M; Roshanaei, G; Rajabi, G; Solgi, G

2015-05-01

Immunologic factors are reliable markers for allograft monitoring, because of their seminal role in rejection process. One of these factors is the immunoglobulin (Ig)A anti-Fab of the IgG antibody. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of pre- and posttransplant levels of this marker for kidney allograft function and survival. Sera samples of 59 living unrelated donor kidney recipients were collected before and after transplantation (days 7, 14, and 30) and investigated for IgA anti-Fab of IgG antibody levels using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in relation with allograft outcome. Among 59 patients, 15 cases (25%) including 10 with acute rejection and 5 with chronic rejection episodes showed graft failure during a mean of 5 years of follow-up. High posttransplant levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies were observed more frequently in patients with stable graft function (SGF) compared with patients with graft failure (P = 2 × 10(-6)). None of patients with acute or chronic rejection episodes had high levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies at day 30 posttransplant compared with the SGF group (P = 10(-6) and P = .01, respectively). In addition, high levels of IgA anti-Fab antibody correlated with lesser concentration of serum creatinine at 1 month posttransplantation (P = .01). Five-year graft survival was associated with high levels of pre- and posttransplant IgA anti-Fab antibodies (P = .02 and P = .003, respectively). Our findings indicate the protective effect of higher levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies regarding to kidney allograft outcomes and long-term graft survival. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Equilibrium high entropy alloy phase stability from experiments and thermodynamic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saal, James E.; Berglund, Ida S.; Sebastian, Jason T.

Long-term stability of high entropy alloys (HEAs) is a critical consideration for the design and practical application of HEAs. It has long been assumed that many HEAs are a kinetically-stabilized metastable structure, and recent experiments have confirmed this hypothesis by observing HEA ecomposition after long-termequilibration. In the presentwork,we demonstrate the use of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach to predict HEA stability and processing parameters, comparing experimental long-term annealing observations to CALPHAD phase diagrams from a commercially-available HEA database. As a result, we find good agreement between single- and multi-phase predictions and experiments.

Equilibrium high entropy alloy phase stability from experiments and thermodynamic modeling

DOE PAGES

Saal, James E.; Berglund, Ida S.; Sebastian, Jason T.; ...

2017-10-29

Long-term stability of high entropy alloys (HEAs) is a critical consideration for the design and practical application of HEAs. It has long been assumed that many HEAs are a kinetically-stabilized metastable structure, and recent experiments have confirmed this hypothesis by observing HEA ecomposition after long-termequilibration. In the presentwork,we demonstrate the use of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach to predict HEA stability and processing parameters, comparing experimental long-term annealing observations to CALPHAD phase diagrams from a commercially-available HEA database. As a result, we find good agreement between single- and multi-phase predictions and experiments.

Metabolic syndrome and atypical antipsychotics: Possibility of prediction and control.

PubMed

Franch Pato, Clara M; Molina Rodríguez, Vicente; Franch Valverde, Juan I

Schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders are associated with high morbidity and mortality, due to inherent health factors, genetic factors, and factors related to psychopharmacological treatment. Antipsychotics, like other drugs, have side-effects that can substantially affect the physical health of patients, with substantive differences in the side-effect profile and in the patients in which these side-effects occur. To understand and identify these risk groups could help to prevent the occurrence of the undesired effects. A prospective study, with 24 months follow-up, was conducted in order to analyse the physical health of severe mental patients under maintenance treatment with atypical antipsychotics, as well as to determine any predictive parameters at anthropometric and/or analytical level for good/bad outcome of metabolic syndrome in these patients. There were no significant changes in the physical and biochemical parameters individually analysed throughout the different visits. The baseline abdominal circumference (lambda Wilks P=.013) and baseline HDL-cholesterol levels (lambda Wilks P=.000) were the parameters that seem to be more relevant above the rest of the metabolic syndrome constituents diagnosis criteria as predictors in the long-term. In the search for predictive factors of metabolic syndrome, HDL-cholesterol and abdominal circumference at the time of inclusion were selected, as such that the worst the baseline results were, the higher probability of long-term improvement. Copyright © 2016 SEP y SEPB. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Monitoring Physical and Biogeochemical Dynamics of Uranium Bioremediation at the Intermediate Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarrell, A. N.; Figueroa, L. A.; Rodriguez, D.; Haas, A.; Revil, A.

2011-12-01

Subsurface uranium above desired levels for aquifer use categories exists naturally and from historic mining and milling practices. In situ bioimmobilization offers a cost effective alternative to conventional pump and treat methods by stimulating growth of microorganisms that lead to the reduction and precipitation of uranium. Vital to the long-term success of in situ bioimmobilization is the ability to successfully predict and demonstrate treatment effectiveness to assure that regulatory goals are met. However, successfully monitoring the progress over time is difficult and requires long-term stewardship to ensure effective treatment due to complex physical and biogeochemical heterogeneity. In order to better understand these complexities and the resultant effect on uranium immobilization, innovative systematic monitoring approaches with multiple performance indicators must be investigated. A key issue for uranium bioremediation is the long term stability of solid-phase reduction products. It has been shown that a combination of data from electrode-based monitoring, self-potential monitoring, oxidation reduction potential (ORP), and water level sensors provides insight for identifying and localizing bioremediation activity and can provide better predictions of deleterious biogeochemical change such as pore clogging. In order to test the proof-of-concept of these sensing techniques and to deconvolve redox activity from other electric potential changing events, an intermediate scale 3D tank experiment has been developed. Well-characterized materials will be packed into the tank and an artificial groundwater will flow across the tank through a constant-head boundary. The experiment will utilize these sensing methods to image the electrical current produced by bacteria as well as indications of when and where electrical activity is occurring, such as with the reduction of radionuclides. This work will expand upon current knowledge by exploring the behavior of uranium bioremediation at an intermediate scale, as well as examining the effects from introducing a flow field in a laboratory setting. Data collected from this experiment will help further characterize which factors are contributing to current increases. Additional information concerning the effect of geochemical changes in porosity may also be observed. The results of this work will allow the creation of a new data set collected from a more comprehensive laboratory monitoring network and will allow stakeholders to develop effective decision-making tools on the long-term remediation management at uranium contaminated sites. The data will also aid in the long-term prediction abilities of a reactive transport models. As in situ bioremediation offers a low cost alternative to ex situ treatment methods, the results of this work will help to both reduce cost at existing sites and enable treatment of sites that otherwise have no clear solution.

Predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing selection.

PubMed Central

Woolliams, J A; Bijma, P

2000-01-01

Tractable forms of predicting rates of inbreeding (DeltaF) in selected populations with general indices, nonrandom mating, and overlapping generations were developed, with the principal results assuming a period of equilibrium in the selection process. An existing theorem concerning the relationship between squared long-term genetic contributions and rates of inbreeding was extended to nonrandom mating and to overlapping generations. DeltaF was shown to be approximately (1)/(4)(1 - omega) times the expected sum of squared lifetime contributions, where omega is the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions. This relationship cannot be used for prediction since it is based upon observed quantities. Therefore, the relationship was further developed to express DeltaF in terms of expected long-term contributions that are conditional on a set of selective advantages that relate the selection processes in two consecutive generations and are predictable quantities. With random mating, if selected family sizes are assumed to be independent Poisson variables then the expected long-term contribution could be substituted for the observed, providing (1)/(4) (since omega = 0) was increased to (1)/(2). Established theory was used to provide a correction term to account for deviations from the Poisson assumptions. The equations were successfully applied, using simple linear models, to the problem of predicting DeltaF with sib indices in discrete generations since previously published solutions had proved complex. PMID:10747074

Limitations on scientific prediction and how they could affect repository licensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Konynenburg, R.A.

The best possibility for gaining an understanding of the likely future behavior of a high level nuclear waste disposal system is to use the scientific method. However, the scientific approach has inherent limitations when it comes to making long-term predictions with confidence. This paper examines some of these limiting factors as well as the criteria for admissibility of scientific evidence in the legal arena, and concludes that the prospects are doubtful for successful licensing of a potential repository under the regulations that are now being reconsidered. Suggestions am made for remedying this situation.

Civil Society as a Game Changer: A Comparative Study of Political Transitions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

uses these criteria to predict the long term prospects of democratization in the four countries studied: Poland, Russia, Tunisia, and Egypt . The... Egypt , Poland, Russia 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 181 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION...and uses these criteria to predict the long term prospects of democratization in the four countries studied: Poland, Russia, Tunisia, and Egypt

The effect of early psychological symptom severity on long-term functional recovery: A secondary analysis of data from a cohort study of minor injury patients

PubMed Central

Jacoby, Sara F.; Shults, Justine; Richmond, Therese S.

2016-01-01

Background The mental health consequences of injuries can interfere with recovery to pre-injury levels of function and long term wellbeing. Objectives The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between psychological symptoms after minor injury and long-term functional recovery and disability. Design This exploratory study uses secondary data derived from a longitudinal cohort study of psychological outcomes after minor injury. Setting Participants were recruited from the Emergency Department of an urban hospital in the United States. Participants A cohort of 275 patients was randomly selected from 1100 consecutive emergency department admissions for minor injury. Potential participants were identified as having sustained minor injury by the combination of three standard criteria including: presentation to the emergency department for medical care within 24 hours of a physical injury, evidence of anatomical injury defined as minor by an injury severity score between 2 and 8 and normal physiology as defined by a triage-Revised Trauma Score of 12. Patients with central nervous system injuries, injury requiring medical care in the past 2 years and/or resulting from domestic violence, and those diagnosed with major depression or psychotic disorders were excluded. Methods Psychological symptom severity was assessed within 2 weeks of injury, and outcome measures for functional limitations and disability were collected at 3, 6 and 12 months. A quasi-least squares approach was used to examine the relationship between psychological symptom scores at intake and work performance and requirement for bed rest in the year after injury. Results Adjusting for demographic and injury covariates, depression symptoms at the time of injury significantly predicted (p≤0.05) both poorer work performance and increased number of days in bed due to health in the year after injury. Anxiety symptoms significantly predicted (p≤0.05) bed days at 3, 6, and 12 months and work performance at 3 months. Conclusions Depression and anxiety soon after minor injury may help predict important markers of long-term recovery. With further research, simple assessment tools for psychological symptoms may be useful to screen for patients who are at higher risk for poor long-term recoveries and who may benefit from targeted interventions. PMID:27863295

The effect of early psychological symptom severity on long-term functional recovery: A secondary analysis of data from a cohort study of minor injury patients.

PubMed

Jacoby, Sara F; Shults, Justine; Richmond, Therese S

2017-01-01

The mental health consequences of injuries can interfere with recovery to pre-injury levels of function and long term wellbeing. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between psychological symptoms after minor injury and long-term functional recovery and disability. This exploratory study uses secondary data derived from a longitudinal cohort study of psychological outcomes after minor injury. Participants were recruited from the Emergency Department of an urban hospital in the United States. A cohort of 275 patients was randomly selected from 1100 consecutive emergency department admissions for minor injury. Potential participants were identified as having sustained minor injury by the combination of three standard criteria including: presentation to the emergency department for medical care within 24h of a physical injury, evidence of anatomical injury defined as minor by an injury severity score between 2 and 8 and normal physiology as defined by a triage-Revised Trauma Score of 12. Patients with central nervous system injuries, injury requiring medical care in the past 2 years and/or resulting from domestic violence, and those diagnosed with major depression or psychotic disorders were excluded. Psychological symptom severity was assessed within 2 weeks of injury, and outcome measures for functional limitations and disability were collected at 3, 6 and 12 months. A quasi-least squares approach was used to examine the relationship between psychological symptom scores at intake and work performance and requirement for bed rest in the year after injury. Adjusting for demographic and injury covariates, depression symptoms at the time of injury predicted (p≤0.05) both poorer work performance and increased number of days in bed due to health in the year after injury. Anxiety symptoms predicted (p≤0.05) bed days at 3, 6, and 12 months and work performance at 3 months. Depression and anxiety soon after minor injury may help predict important markers of long-term recovery. With further research, simple assessment tools for psychological symptoms may be useful to screen for patients who are at higher risk for poor long-term recoveries and who may benefit from targeted interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients

PubMed Central

Endo, Naoto; Uchiyama, Seiji; Takahashi, Yoshinori; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Kei

2016-01-01

Background Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism. Methods This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged <30 years at baseline. Results The bone mineral density was reduced (0.58±0.19 g/cm3), and the osteocalcin (13.9±12.4 ng/mL) and urine N-terminal telopeptide (NTX) levels (146.9±134.0 mM BCE/mM creatinine) were greater than the cutoff value for predicting fracture. Among the bone metabolism markers studied, osteocalcin and NTX were negatively associated with the bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH) vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years. Conclusions Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients. PMID:27275738

Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients.

PubMed

Eimori, Keiko; Endo, Naoto; Uchiyama, Seiji; Takahashi, Yoshinori; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Kei

2016-01-01

Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism. This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged <30 years at baseline. The bone mineral density was reduced (0.58±0.19 g/cm3), and the osteocalcin (13.9±12.4 ng/mL) and urine N-terminal telopeptide (NTX) levels (146.9±134.0 mM BCE/mM creatinine) were greater than the cutoff value for predicting fracture. Among the bone metabolism markers studied, osteocalcin and NTX were negatively associated with the bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH) vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years. Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients.

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks

PubMed Central

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-01-01

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction. PMID:28672867

Spatiotemporal Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Traffic Prediction in Transportation Networks.

PubMed

Yu, Haiyang; Wu, Zhihai; Wang, Shuqin; Wang, Yunpeng; Ma, Xiaolei

2017-06-26

Predicting large-scale transportation network traffic has become an important and challenging topic in recent decades. Inspired by the domain knowledge of motion prediction, in which the future motion of an object can be predicted based on previous scenes, we propose a network grid representation method that can retain the fine-scale structure of a transportation network. Network-wide traffic speeds are converted into a series of static images and input into a novel deep architecture, namely, spatiotemporal recurrent convolutional networks (SRCNs), for traffic forecasting. The proposed SRCNs inherit the advantages of deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The spatial dependencies of network-wide traffic can be captured by DCNNs, and the temporal dynamics can be learned by LSTMs. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links demonstrates that SRCNs outperform other deep learning-based algorithms in both short-term and long-term traffic prediction.

Global predictability of temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

The impact of forced displacement in World War II on mental health disorders and health-related quality of life in late life - a German population-based study.

PubMed

Freitag, Simone; Braehler, Elmar; Schmidt, Silke; Glaesmer, Heide

2013-02-01

Long-term effects of World War II experiences affect psychological and physical health in aged adults. Forced displacement as a traumatic event is associated with increased psychological burden even after several decades. This study investigates the contribution of forced displacement as a predictor for mental health disorders and adds the aspect of health-related quality of life (QoL). A sample of 1,659 German older adults aged 60-85 years was drawn from a representative survey. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), somatoform symptoms, depressive syndromes, and health-related QoL were assessed as outcome variables. Chi-square and t-test statistics examined differences between displaced and non-displaced people. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the impact of forced displacement on mental health disorders and QoL. Displaced people reported higher levels of PTSD, depressive and somatoform symptoms, and lower levels of health-related QoL. Displacement significantly predicted PTSD and somatoform symptoms in late life, but not depressive disorders. Health-related QoL was predicted by forced displacement and socio-demographic variables. Forced displacement is associated with an elevated risk for PTSD and somatoform symptoms and lowered health-related QoL in aged adults. Its unique impact declines after including socio-demographic variables. Long-term consequences of forced displacement need further investigations and should include positive aspects in terms of resilience and protective coping strategies.

Childhood onset of spinal cord injury: self-esteem and self-perception.

PubMed

Kennedy, P; Gorsuch, N; Marsh, N

1995-11-01

The effects of spinal cord injury in childhood upon later psychological adjustment were investigated by comparing a group of 86 people injured as children with a control group (matched for time since injury and level of injury) of people injured as adults. It was hypothesized that adolescence is a crucial period in psychological development and that the effect of spinal cord injury on body image, self-concept and social relationships during adolescence will have a long-term negative effect on psychological well-being. However, on overall measures of depression, self-esteem and self-perception, there were no significant differences between the experimental and control groups. Furthermore, there were no significant differences between paraplegics and tetraplegics, between men women, or between those who were involved in a significant intimate relationship and those who were not. These findings support previous research which has suggested that organic variables, such as age at injury and level of injury, are not predictive of long-term psychological adjustment.

Beyond Initial Encoding: Measures of the Post-Encoding Status of Memory Traces Predict Long-Term Recall during Infancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

2013-01-01

The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the current research we contributed to an explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old…

3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

DOE PAGES

Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J.; ...

2016-04-27

3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curvesmore » predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. As a result, this indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.« less

3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J.

3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curvesmore » predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. As a result, this indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.« less

3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

2016-04-01

3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.

3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

PubMed Central

Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

2016-01-01

3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance. PMID:27117858

Impacts of 120 years of fertilizer addition on a temperate grassland ecosystem

PubMed Central

Kidd, Jonathan; Manning, Peter; Simkin, Janet; Peacock, Simon; Stockdale, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

The widespread application of fertilizers has greatly influenced many processes and properties of agroecosystems, and agricultural fertilization is expected to increase even further in the future. To date, most research on fertilizer impacts has used short-term studies, which may be unrepresentative of long-term responses, thus hindering our capacity to predict long-term impacts. Here, we examined the effects of long-term fertilizer addition on key ecosystem properties in a long-term grassland experiment (Palace Leas Hay Meadow) in which farmyard manure (FYM) and inorganic fertilizer treatments have been applied consistently for 120 years in order to characterize the experimental site more fully and compare ecosystem responses with those observed at other long-term and short-term experiments. FYM inputs increased soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, hay yield, nutrient availability and acted as a buffer against soil acidification (>pH 5). In contrast, N-containing inorganic fertilizers strongly acidified the soil (

An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

2014-01-01

Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

The ability of intensive care unit physicians to estimate long-term prognosis in survivors of critical illness.

PubMed

Soliman, Ivo W; Cremer, Olaf L; de Lange, Dylan W; Slooter, Arjen J C; van Delden, Johannes Hans J M; van Dijk, Diederik; Peelen, Linda M

2018-02-01

To assess the reliability of physicians' prognoses for intensive care unit (ICU) survivors with respect to long-term survival and health related quality of life (HRQoL). We performed an observational cohort-study in a single mixed tertiary ICU in The Netherlands. ICU survivors with a length of stay >48h were included. At ICU discharge, one-year prognosis was estimated by physicians using the four-option Sabadell score to record their expectations. The outcome of interest was poor outcome, which was defined as dying within one-year follow-up, or surviving with an EuroQoL5D-3L index <0.4. Among 1399 ICU survivors, 1068 (76%) subjects were expected to have a good outcome; 243 (18%) a poor long-term prognosis; 43 (3%) a poor short-term prognosis, and 45 (3%) to die in hospital (i.e. Sabadell score levels). Poor outcome was observed in 38%, 55%, 86%, and 100% of these groups respectively (concomitant c-index: 0.61). The expected prognosis did not match observed outcome in 365 (36%) patients. This was almost exclusively (99%) due to overoptimism. Physician experience did not affect results. Prognoses estimated by physicians incorrectly predicted long-term survival and HRQoL in one-third of ICU survivors. Moreover, inaccurate prognoses were generally the result of overoptimistic expectations of outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term phenotypic evolution of bacteria.

PubMed

Plata, Germán; Henry, Christopher S; Vitkup, Dennis

2015-01-15

For many decades comparative analyses of protein sequences and structures have been used to investigate fundamental principles of molecular evolution. In contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term evolution of species' phenotypic and genetic properties. This represents an important gap in our understanding of evolution, as exactly these proprieties play key roles in natural selection and adaptation to diverse environments. Here we perform a comparative analysis of bacterial growth and gene deletion phenotypes using hundreds of genome-scale metabolic models. Overall, bacterial phenotypic evolution can be described by a two-stage process with a rapid initial phenotypic diversification followed by a slow long-term exponential divergence. The observed average divergence trend, with approximately similar fractions of phenotypic properties changing per unit time, continues for billions of years. We experimentally confirm the predicted divergence trend using the phenotypic profiles of 40 diverse bacterial species across more than 60 growth conditions. Our analysis suggests that, at long evolutionary distances, gene essentiality is significantly more conserved than the ability to utilize different nutrients, while synthetic lethality is significantly less conserved. We also find that although a rapid phenotypic evolution is sometimes observed within the same species, a transition from high to low phenotypic similarity occurs primarily at the genus level.

In patients with minimally symptomatic OSA can baseline characteristics and early patterns of CPAP usage predict those who are likely to be longer-term users of CPAP.

PubMed

Turnbull, Christopher D; Bratton, Daniel J; Craig, Sonya E; Kohler, Malcolm; Stradling, John R

2016-02-01

Long-term continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) usage varies between individuals. It would be of value to be able to identify those who are likely to benefit from CPAP (and use it long term), versus those who would not, and might therefore benefit from additional help early on. First, we explored whether baseline characteristics predicted CPAP usage in minimally symptomatic obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients, a group who would be expected to have low usage. Second, we explored if early CPAP usage was predictive of longer-term usage, as has been shown in more symptomatic OSA patients. The MOSAIC trial was a multi-centre randomised controlled trial where minimally symptomatic OSA patients were randomised to CPAP, or standard care, for 6 months. Here we have studied only those patients randomised to CPAP treatment. Baseline characteristics including symptoms, questionnaires [including the Epworth sleepiness score (ESS)] and sleep study parameters were recorded. CPAP usage was recorded at 2-4 weeks after initiation and after 6 months. The correlation and association between baseline characteristics and 6 months CPAP usage was assessed, as was the correlation between 2 and 4 weeks CPAP usage and 6 months CPAP usage. One hundred and ninety-five patients randomised to CPAP therapy had median [interquartile range (IQR)] CPAP usage of 2:49 (0:44, 5:13) h:min/night (h/n) at the 2-4 weeks visit, and 2:17 (0:08, 4:54) h/n at the 6 months follow-up visit. Only male gender was associated with increased long-term CPAP use (male usage 2:56 h/n, female 1:57 h/n; P=0.02). There was a moderate correlation between the usage of CPAP at 2-4 weeks and 6 months, with about 50% of the variability in long-term use being predicted by the short-term use. In patients with minimally symptomatic OSA, our study has shown that male gender (and not OSA severity or symptom burden) is associated with increased long-term use of CPAP at 6 months. Although, in general, early patterns of CPAP usage predicted longer term use, there are patients in whom this is not the case, and patients with low initial usage may need to extend their CPAP trial before a decision about longer-term use is made.

Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

Accelerated Weathering of Waste Glass at 90°C with the Pressurized Unsaturated Flow (PUF) Apparatus: Implications for Predicting Glass Corrosion with a Reactive Transport Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M.; Bacon, Diana H.

2009-09-21

The interest in the long-term durability of waste glass stems from the need to predict radionuclide release rates from the corroding glass over geologic time-scales. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test-B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)]. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that can mimic the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitor the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior.more » One dimensional reactive chemical transport simulations of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year long PUF experiment was conducted with the subsurface transport over reactive multi-phases (STORM) code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over geologic-time scales.« less

Endorsement of Social and Personal Values Predicts the Desirability of Men and Women as Long-Term Partners.

PubMed

Lopes, Guilherme S; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Jeffery, Austin J; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K; Zeigler-Hill, Virgil

2017-01-01

A prospective romantic partner's desirability as a long-term partner may be affected by the values that he or she endorses. However, few studies have examined the effects of "values" on a person's desirability as a long-term partner. We hypothesized that individuals who endorse social values (vs. personal values) will be perceived as more desirable long-term partners (Hypothesis 1) and that the endorsement of social values will be especially desirable in a male (vs. female) long-term partner (Hypothesis 2). The current study employed a 2 (sex of prospective partner: male vs. female) × 2 (values of prospective partner: personal vs. social) × 2 (physical attractiveness of prospective partner: unattractive vs. highly attractive) mixed-model design. Participants were 339 undergraduates (174 men, 165 women), with ages varying between 18 and 33 years ( M = 19.9, SD = 3.6), and mostly in a romantic relationship (53.7%). Participants reported interest in a long-term relationship with prospective partners depicted in four scenarios (within subjects), each varying along the dimensions of values (personal vs. social) and physical attractiveness (unattractive vs. highly attractive). Individuals endorsing personal values (vs. social values) and men (vs. women) endorsing personal values were rated as less desirable as long-term partners. The current research adds to the partner preferences literature by demonstrating that an individual's ascribed values influence others' perceptions of desirability as a long-term partner and that these effects are consistently sex differentiated, as predicted by an evolutionary perspective on romantic partner preferences.

The role of deep Earth dynamics in driving the flooding and emergence of New Guinea since the Jurassic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Lauren; Zahirovic, Sabin; Flament, Nicolas; Müller, R. Dietmar

2017-12-01

The paleogeography of New Guinea indicates fluctuating periods of flooding and emergence since the Jurassic, which are inconsistent with estimates of global sea level change since the Eocene. The role of deep Earth dynamics in explaining these discrepancies has not been explored, despite the strongly time-dependent geodynamic setting within which New Guinea has evolved. We aim to investigate the role of subduction-driven mantle flow in controlling long-wavelength dynamic topography and its manifestation in the regional sedimentary record, within a tectonically complex region leading to orogeny. We couple regionally refined global plate reconstructions with forward geodynamic models to compare trends of dynamic topography with estimates of eustasy and regional paleogeography. Qualitative corroboration of modelled mantle structure with equivalent tomographic profiles allows us to ground-truth the models. We show that predicted dynamic topography correlates with the paleogeographic record of New Guinea from the Jurassic to the present. We find that subduction at the East Gondwana margin locally enhanced the high eustatic sea levels from the Early Cretaceous (∼145 Ma) to generate long-term regional flooding. During the Miocene, however, dynamic subsidence associated with subduction of the Maramuni Arc played a fundamental role in causing long-term inundation of New Guinea during a period of global sea level fall.

Estimation of daily PM10 concentrations in Italy (2006-2012) using finely resolved satellite data, land use variables and meteorology.

PubMed

Stafoggia, Massimo; Schwartz, Joel; Badaloni, Chiara; Bellander, Tom; Alessandrini, Ester; Cattani, Giorgio; De' Donato, Francesca; Gaeta, Alessandra; Leone, Gianluca; Lyapustin, Alexei; Sorek-Hamer, Meytar; de Hoogh, Kees; Di, Qian; Forastiere, Francesco; Kloog, Itai

2017-02-01

Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter. The complex topography and the air mixture from both natural and anthropogenic sources are great challenges difficult to be addressed. We combined finely resolved data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, ground-level PM 10 measurements, land-use variables and meteorological parameters into a four-stage mixed model framework to derive estimates of daily PM 10 concentrations at 1-km2 grid over Italy, for the years 2006-2012. We checked performance of our models by applying 10-fold cross-validation (CV) for each year. Our models displayed good fitting, with mean CV-R2=0.65 and little bias (average slope of predicted VS observed PM 10 =0.99). Out-of-sample predictions were more accurate in Northern Italy (Po valley) and large conurbations (e.g. Rome), for background monitoring stations, and in the winter season. Resulting concentration maps showed highest average PM 10 levels in specific areas (Po river valley, main industrial and metropolitan areas) with decreasing trends over time. Our daily predictions of PM 10 concentrations across the whole Italy will allow, for the first time, estimation of long-term and short-term effects of air pollution nationwide, even in areas lacking monitoring data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Viscoelastic Response of E-glass/Bismaleimide Composite in Seawater Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yian, Zhao; Zhiying, Wang; Keey, Seah Leong; Boay, Chai Gin

2015-12-01

The effect of seawater absorption on the long-term viscoelastic response of E-glass/BMI composite is presented in this paper. The diffusion of seawater into the composite shows a two-stage behavior, dominated by Fickian diffusion initially and followed by polymeric relaxation. The Glass transition temperature (Tg) of the composite with seawater absorption is considerably lowered due to the plasticization effect. However the effect of water absorption at 50 °C is found to be reversible after drying process. The time-temperature superposition (TTS) was performed based on the results of Dynamic Mechanical Analysis to construct the master curve of storage modulus. The shift factors exhibit Arrhenius behavior when temperature is well below Tg and Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann (VFT) like behavior when temperature gets close to glass transition region. As a result, a semi-empirical formulation is proposed to account for the seawater absorption effect in predicting long-term viscoelastic response of BMI composites based on temperature dependent storage modulus and TTS. The predicted master curves show that the degradation of storage modulus accelerates with both seawater exposure and increasing temperature. The proposed formulation can be applied to predict the long-term durability of any thermorheologically simple composite materials in seawater environment.

Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

PubMed

Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

2016-01-01

In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

A Multimethod Assessment of Juvenile Psychopathy: Comparing the Predictive Utility of the PCL:YV, YPI, and NEO PRI

PubMed Central

Cauffman, Elizabeth; Kimonis, Eva R.; Dmitrieva, Julia; Monahan, Kathryn C.

2009-01-01

The current study compares 3 distinct approaches for measuring juvenile psychopathy and their utility for predicting short- and long-term recidivism among a sample of 1,170 serious male juvenile offenders. The assessment approaches compared a clinical interview method (the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Forth, Kosson, & Hare, 2003), a new self-report measure (the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory; Andershed, Kerr, Stattin, & Levander, 2002), and a personality-based approach (the NEO Psychopathy Resemblance Index; Lynam & Widiger, 2007). Results indicate a modest overlap between the 3 measures (rs = .26–.36); however, youths were often identified as psychopathic by 1 measure but not by others. Measures were weakly correlated with reoffending during subsequent 6- and 12-month periods. Findings suggest that although such scores may be useful indicators of the need for heightened monitoring in the short term, care should be taken when making predictions about long-term recidivism among adolescents. Moreover, the lack of long-term predictive power for the PCL:YV and the inconsistent psychopathy designations obtained with different measures raise serious questions about the use of such measures as the basis for legal or clinical treatment decisions. PMID:19947787

Combined Experimental and Computational Approach to Predict the Glass-Water Reaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M.; Bacon, Diana H.

2011-10-01

The use of mineral and glass dissolution rates measured in laboratory experiments to predict the weathering of primary minerals and volcanic and nuclear waste glasses in field studies requires the construction of rate models that accurately describe the weathering process over geologic timescales. Additionally, the need to model the long-term behavior of nuclear waste glass for the purpose of estimating radionuclide release rates requires that rate models be validated with long-term experiments. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)], thereby reducingmore » the duration required to evaluate long-term performance. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that mimics the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitors the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior. A one-dimensional reactive chemical transport simulation of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year-long PUF experiment was conducted with the Subsurface Transport Over Reactive Multiphases (STORM) code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct bench scale laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over the length of the experiment. Over the 1.5-year-long test duration, the rate decreased from 0.2 to 0.01 g/(m2 day) based on B release for low-activity waste glass LAWA44. The observed decrease is approximately two orders of magnitude higher than the decrease observed under static conditions with the SON68 glass (estimated to be a decrease by four orders of magnitude) and suggests that the gel-layer properties are less protective under these dynamic conditions.« less

Combined Experimental and Computational Approach to Predict the Glass-Water Reaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M; Bacon, Diana

2011-01-01

The use of mineral and glass dissolution rates measured in laboratory experiments to predict the weathering of primary minerals and volcanic and nuclear waste glasses in field studies requires the construction of rate models that accurately describe the weathering process over geologic time-scales. Additionally, the need to model the long-term behavior of nuclear waste glass for the purpose of estimating radionuclide release rates requires that rate models are validated with long-term experiments. Several long-term test methods have been developed to accelerate the glass-water reaction [drip test, vapor hydration test, product consistency test-B, and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF)], thereby reducing themore » duration required to evaluate long-term performance. Currently, the PUF test is the only method that mimics the unsaturated hydraulic properties expected in a subsurface disposal facility and simultaneously monitors the glass-water reaction. PUF tests are being conducted to accelerate the weathering of glass and validate the model parameters being used to predict long-term glass behavior. A one-dimensional reactive chemical transport simulation of glass dissolution and secondary phase formation during a 1.5-year long PUF experiment was conducted with the subsurface transport over reactive multi-phases code. Results show that parameterization of the computer model by combining direct bench-scale laboratory measurements and thermodynamic data provides an integrated approach to predicting glass behavior over the length of the experiment. Over the 1.5-year long test duration, the rate decreased from 0.2 to 0.01 g/(m2 d) base on B release. The observed decrease is approximately two orders of magnitude higher than the decrease observed under static conditions with the SON68 glass (estimated to be a decrease by 4 orders of magnitude) and suggest the gel-layer properties are less protective under these dynamic conditions.« less

Long-term antecedents and outcomes of perceived control.

PubMed

Infurna, Frank J; Gerstorf, Denis; Ram, Nilam; Schupp, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G

2011-09-01

Perceived control plays an important role in shaping development throughout adulthood and old age. Using data from the adult lifespan sample of the national German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP; N > 10,000, covering 25 years of measurement), we explored long-term antecedents, correlates, and outcomes of perceived control and examined if associations differ with age. Targeting correlates and antecedents of control, findings indicated that higher concurrent levels of social participation, life satisfaction, and self-rated health as well as more positive changes in social participation over the preceding 11 years were each predictive of between-person differences in perceived control. Targeting health outcomes of control, survival analyses revealed that perceived control predicted 14-year hazard ratio for disability (n = 996 became disabled) and mortality (n = 1,382 died). The effect for mortality, but not for disability, was independent of sociodemographic and psychosocial factors. Overall, we found very limited support for age-differential associations. Our results provide further impetus to thoroughly examine processes involved in antecedent-consequent relations among perceived control, facets of social life, well-being, and health.

Blood and small intestine cell kinetics under radiation exposures: Mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, O. A.

2009-12-01

Mathematical models which describe the dynamics of two vital body systems (hematopoiesis and small intestinal epithelium) in mammals exposed to acute and chronic radiation are developed. These models, based on conventional biological theories, are implemented as systems of nonlinear differential equations. Their variables and constant parameters have clear biological meaning, that provides successful identification and verification of the models in hand. It is shown that the predictions of the models qualitatively and quantitatively agree with the respective experimental data for small laboratory animals (mice, rats) exposed to acute/chronic irradiation in wide ranges of doses and dose rates. The explanation of a number of radiobiological effects, including those of the low-level long-term exposures, is proposed proceeding from the modeling results. All this bears witness to the validity of employment of the developed models, after a proper identification, in investigation and prediction of radiation effects on the hematopoietic and small intestinal epithelium systems in various mammalian species, including humans. In particular, the models can be used for estimating effects of irradiation on astronauts in the long-term space missions, such as Lunar colonies and Mars voyages.

Long-term follow-up of functional hypothalamic amenorrhea and prognostic factors.

PubMed

Falsetti, Leopoldo; Gambera, Alessandro; Barbetti, Lorena; Specchia, Cristina

2002-02-01

This study evaluated the prognosis of functional hypothalamic amenorrhea (FHA) and the predictive factors of recovery, through a long-term follow-up. Ninety-three women affected by FHA underwent a follow-up for an average period of 8.1 yr (range 7-9 yr). At the end of the follow-up, 65 (70.7%) patients recovered. Statistical analysis showed that there was no association between recovery and anamnestic causes of FHA or with the echographic ovarian morphology but identified the predictive factors of recovery as the basal body mass index (BMI), the basal cortisol, and androstenedione plasma levels. A higher basal BMI and A, and lower cortisol values are positive prognostic factors for the recovery. Also the BMI, acquired during the follow-up, is important for FHA resolution: in fact, in recovered women the BMI increased or remained stable, whereas in nonrecovered women it decreased or remained stable. At the end of the follow-up, 52 (74.3%) patients treated with hormone replacement therapy and 8 (80%) with no therapy recovered, but only 5 (41.7%) with oral contraceptive pills recovered.

Semi-empirical long-term cycle life model coupled with an electrolyte depletion function for large-format graphite/LiFePO4 lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Joonam; Appiah, Williams Agyei; Byun, Seoungwoo; Jin, Dahee; Ryou, Myung-Hyun; Lee, Yong Min

2017-10-01

To overcome the limitation of simple empirical cycle life models based on only equivalent circuits, we attempt to couple a conventional empirical capacity loss model with Newman's porous composite electrode model, which contains both electrochemical reaction kinetics and material/charge balances. In addition, an electrolyte depletion function is newly introduced to simulate a sudden capacity drop at the end of cycling, which is frequently observed in real lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). When simulated electrochemical properties are compared with experimental data obtained with 20 Ah-level graphite/LiFePO4 LIB cells, our semi-empirical model is sufficiently accurate to predict a voltage profile having a low standard deviation of 0.0035 V, even at 5C. Additionally, our model can provide broad cycle life color maps under different c-rate and depth-of-discharge operating conditions. Thus, this semi-empirical model with an electrolyte depletion function will be a promising platform to predict long-term cycle lives of large-format LIB cells under various operating conditions.

Long-term outcome in patients with germ cell tumours treated with POMB/ACE chemotherapy: comparison of commonly used classification systems of good and poor prognosis.

PubMed Central

Hitchins, R. N.; Newlands, E. S.; Smith, D. B.; Begent, R. H.; Rustin, G. J.; Bagshawe, K. D.

1989-01-01

We analysed outcome in 206 consecutive male patients treated for metastatic non-seminomatous germ cell tumour (NSGCT) of testicular or extragonadal origin treated with the POMB/ACE (cisplatin, vincristine, methotrexate, bleomycin, actinomycin D, cyclophosphamide, etoposide) regimen after division into prognostic groups by commonly used clinical classification systems and definitions of adverse prognosis. The adverse prognostic groups of all classification systems and definitions examined showed similar, but only moderate, sensitivity (71-81%) and specificity (52-56%) in predicting death. A simple definition of poor prognosis based on raised initial levels of serum tumour markers alpha fetoprotein (aFP) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) proved at least as useful (sensitivity 80%, specificity 55%) as other more complicated systems in predicting failure to achieve long-term survival. Comparison of survival between ultra-high dose cisplatin-based combination chemotherapy and patients treated with POMB/ACE shows no advantage from this more toxic approach. This suggests that good results in adverse prognosis patients can be achieved using conventional dose regimens administered intensively. PMID:2467682

Transient and permanent hypocalcemia after total thyroidectomy: Early predictive factors and long-term follow-up results.

PubMed

Seo, Sung Tae; Chang, Jae Won; Jin, Jun; Lim, Young Chang; Rha, Ki-Sang; Koo, Bon Seok

2015-12-01

Post-thyroidectomy hypocalcemia is among the most common complications of total thyroidectomy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate early predictive factors and long-term changes in intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) levels in patients with transient and permanent hypocalcemia after total thyroidectomy. A total of 349 consecutive patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with or without neck dissection between 2009 and 2011 were reviewed. PTH, total calcium (Ca), and ionized Ca (iCa) levels were evaluated at 1 hour, and 1, 3, 5, and 7 days, and 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. Biochemical profiles at 1 hour after total thyroidectomy in patients with transient and permanent hypocalcemia were compared. Patients with postoperative hypocalcemia were followed for 12 months. Lesser preoperative serum levels of Ca and more extensive surgery were significantly associated with postoperative hypocalcemia (P < .05). The absolute level and relative decline (%) in iPTH at 1 hour were the most reliable predictors of postoperative hypocalcemia according to the receiver operating characteristics curve, with a threshold of 10.42 pg/mL and 70%. Sensitivity and specificity of the predictors were 83.4% (95% CI, 76.4-89.1), 100% (95% CI, 84.6-100.0), 84.1 (95% CI, 77.2-89.7), and 95.5% (95% CI, 77.2-99.9), respectively. Parathyroid function recovered in the first month after total thyroidectomy in 78 of 99 patients (79%) with transient hypocalcemia. However, 46 of 61 patients (74%) with a subnormal iPTH level at 3 months after surgery had permanent hypocalcemia. Mean postoperative PTH level and the mean relative decline in PTH measured 1 hour postoperatively were the most reliable predictors of postoperative or permanent hypocalcemia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

BCR-ABL1 transcript at 3 months predicts long-term outcomes following second generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy in the patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia in chronic phase who failed Imatinib.

PubMed

Kim, Dennis D; Lee, Honggi; Kamel-Reid, Suzanne; Lipton, Jeffrey H

2013-03-01

The BCR-ABL1 transcript level at 3 months can predict long-term outcomes following frontline therapy with Imatinib or Dasatinib in chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) patients. However, data is lacking for second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (2GTKI) therapy after Imatinib failure. A total of 112 patients with CML in chronic phase receiving 2GTKI after Imatinib failure were reviewed. Treatment outcomes including complete cytogenetic (CCyR), major molecular (MMR) and molecular response 4.5 (4.5 log reduction of BCR-ABL1 transcript level, MR(4.5) ), treatment failure, progression-free and overall survival (OS) were compared according to BCR-ABL1 transcript levels at 3 or 6 months, divided into <1%(IS) , 1-10%(IS) and ≥ 10%(IS) . BCR-ABL1 transcript level at 3 months showed better correlation with OS (P < 0.001) than that at 6 months (P = 0.147). Better OS was also observed in the patients achieving <1%(IS) (100%) and 1-10%(IS) (100%) than those with ≥ 10%(IS) at 3 months (70.6%, P < 0.001). Those with <1%(IS) showed the best CCyR, MMR and MR(4.5) rates; 1-10%(IS) , intermediate; and ≥ 10%(IS) , the lowest CCyR, MMR and MR(4.5) rates. The group with <1%(IS) at 3 months maintained significantly lower BCR-ABL1 transcript level compared to other two groups. In conclusion, the BCR-ABL1 transcript level at 3 months is the most relevant surrogate for outcomes following 2GTKI therapy after Imatinib failure. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Role of family caregivers' self-perceived preparedness for the death of the cancer patient in long-term adjustment to bereavement.

PubMed

Kim, Youngmee; Carver, Charles S; Spiegel, David; Mitchell, Hannah-Rose; Cannady, Rachel S

2017-04-01

A substantial number of family caregivers go through bereavement because of cancer, but little is known about the bereaved caregivers' long-term adjustment. This study aimed to document levels of bereavement outcomes (prolonged grief symptoms, intense emotional reaction to the loss, depressive symptoms, and life satisfaction) among family cancer caregivers 3-5 years post-loss and to investigate how self-rated preparedness for the patient's death predicted those bereavement outcomes. Family members participated in a nationwide survey for cancer caregivers 2 years after the relative's diagnosis (T1). Of those, 109 were identified as bereaved by 5 years post-diagnosis (T2). Of those, 88 continued to participate at 8-year follow-up (T3) and provided valid data for the study variables. Caregivers' distress risk factors were measured at T1, satisfaction with palliative care and preparedness for the death of the patient at T2, and time since death of the patient at T2 or T3. Substantial numbers of family members (18% to 48%) displayed heightened levels of bereavement-related psychological distress years after the loss. Hierarchical general linear modeling revealed that perceived preparedness for the death of the patient concurrently and prospectively predicted better adjustment to bereavement, independent of contributions of other factors studied. Findings underscore the high prevalence of long-lasting bereavement-related distress among family cancer caregivers and the role of preparedness for the relative's death in the level of that distress. Findings suggest that psychosocial programs among caregivers focus on not only caregiving skills per se but also preparedness for the death of the patient. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring

PubMed Central

Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D.; Larson, Timothy V.; Keller, Joshua P.; Kaufman, Joel D.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. Objectives: We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. Methods: We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children’s Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). Results: In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84–0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00–0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Conclusions: Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. Citation: Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Larson TV, Keller JP, Kaufman JD. 2017. Historical prediction modeling approach for estimating long-term concentrations of PM2.5 in cohort studies before the 1999 implementation of widespread monitoring. Environ Health Perspect 125:38–46; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP131 PMID:27340825

Quantitative investigations of different vaccination policies for the control of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the United Kingdom.

PubMed Central

Anderson, R. M.; Grenfell, B. T.

1986-01-01

The paper examines predictions of the impact of various one-, two- and three-stage vaccination policies on the incidence of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the United Kingdom with the aid of a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of rubella virus. Parameter estimates for the model are derived from either serological data or case notifications, and special attention is given to the significance of age-related changes in the rate of exposure to rubella infection and heterogeneous mixing between age groups. Where possible, model predictions are compared with observed epidemiological trends. The principal conclusion of the analyses is that benefit is to be gained in the UK, both in the short and long term, by the introduction of a multiple-stage vaccination policy involving high levels of vaccination coverage of young male and female children (at around two years of age) and teenage girls (between the ages of 10-15 years), plus continued surveillance and vaccination of adult women in the child-bearing age classes. Model predictions suggest that to reduce the incidence of CRS in future years, below the level generated by a continuation of the current UK policy (the vaccination of teenage girls), would require high rates of vaccination (greater than 60%) of both boys and girls at around two years of age. Numerical studies also suggest that uniform vaccination coverage levels of greater than 80-85% of young male and female children could, in the long term (40 years or more), eradicate rubella virus from the population. The robustness of these conclusions with respect to the accuracy of parameter estimates and various assumptions concerning the pattern of age-related change in exposure to infections and 'who acquires infection from whom' is discussed. PMID:3701044

Adverse trajectories of mental health problems predict subsequent burnout and work-family conflict - a longitudinal study of employed women with children followed over 18 years.

PubMed

Nilsen, Wendy; Skipstein, Anni; Demerouti, Evangelia

2016-11-08

The long-term consequence of experiencing mental health problems may lead to several adverse outcomes. The current study aims to validate previous identified trajectories of mental health problems from 1993 to 2006 in women by examining their implications on subsequent work and family-related outcomes in 2011. Employed women (n = 439) with children were drawn from the Tracking Opportunities and Problems-Study (TOPP), a community-based longitudinal study following Norwegian families across 18 years. Previous identified latent profiles of mental health trajectories (i.e., High; Moderate; Low-rising and Low levels of mental health problems over time) measured at six time points between 1993 and 2006 were examined as predictors of burnout (e.g., exhaustion and disengagement from work) and work-family conflict in 2011 in univariate and multivariate analyses of variance adjusted for potential confounders (age, job demands, and negative emotionality). We found that having consistently High and Moderate symptoms as well as Low-Rising symptoms from 1993 to 2006 predicted higher levels of exhaustion, disengagement from work and work-family conflict in 2011. Findings remained unchanged when adjusting for several potential confounders, but when adjusting for current mental health problems only levels of exhaustion were predicted by the mental health trajectories. The study expands upon previous studies on the field by using a longer time span and by focusing on employed women with children who experience different patterns of mental health trajectories. The long-term effect of these trajectories highlight and validate the importance of early identification and prevention in women experiencing adverse patterns of mental health problems with regards to subsequent work and family-related outcomes.

Predictive Factors of Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients with Vesicoureteral Reflux Treated Surgically and Followed after Puberty.

PubMed

Kang, Minyong; Lee, Jung Keun; Im, Young Jae; Choi, Hwang; Park, Kwanjin

2016-04-01

We delineated clinical features and determined predictors of chronic kidney disease during long-term postpubertal followup in patients with vesicoureteral reflux treated surgically. We analyzed the data of 101 patients who were surgically treated for vesicoureteral reflux and had gone through puberty. Patients underwent preoperative and postoperative voiding cystourethrography to assess reflux status, and dimercaptosuccinic acid scan to assess renal cortical defects. We compared several variables preoperatively and postpubertally, including body mass index; blood urea nitrogen, creatinine and uric acid levels; estimated glomerular filtration rate; microalbuminuria; blood pressure; renal function and renal scarring. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to predict chronic kidney disease-free survival rates throughout the followup periods. Cox regression model was adopted to identify independent predictors of chronic kidney disease. We defined chronic kidney disease as estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 ml/minute/1.73 m(2). Median followup was 100.0 months (IQR 69.0 to 136.5). Median age was 16 years at last followup (IQR 14 to 18). A total of 11 patients (10.9%) were diagnosed with de novo chronic kidney disease during postpubertal followup. It is noteworthy that serum uric acid levels (HR 1.96) and presence of high grade reflux (HR 7.40) were significant predictors of chronic kidney disease on multivariate analysis. In children who were treated surgically for vesicoureteral reflux preoperative uric acid levels and high grade reflux were independent predictors of de novo chronic kidney disease during postpubertal followup. Our results offer valuable information for predicting long-term renal outcomes in patients with vesicoureteral reflux treated surgically. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis

PubMed Central

Yang, Hai Jing

2018-01-01

Aim This study examined the predictors of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis. Methods A total of 280 patients with moderate to severe chronic periodontitis in a tertiary care hospital in China were investigated and followed over the course of study. Questionnaires on clinical and demographic characteristics, self-efficacy for oral self-care and dental fear at baseline were completed. Participants were followed to determine whether they could adhere to long-term supportive periodontal therapy. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between clinical and demographic characteristics, self-efficacy for oral self-care, dental fear and loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy. Results The loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy was significantly associated with age [adjusted OR = 1.042, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.012–1.074, p = 0.006], severe periodontitis [adjusted OR = 4.892, 95%CI: 2.280–10.499, p<0.001], periodontal surgery [adjusted OR = 11.334, 95% CI: 2.235–57.472, p = 0.003], and middle and low-scoring of self-efficacy scale for self-care groups. The adjusted ORs of loss to follow-up for the middle- (54–59) and low-scoring groups (15–53) were 71.899 (95%CI: 23.926–216.062, p<0.001) and 4.800 (95% CI: 2.263–10.182, p<0.001), respectively, compared with the high-scoring SESS group (60–75). Conclusion Age, severity of periodontitis, periodontal surgery and the level of self-efficacy for self-care may be effective predictors of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis. PMID:29420586

The role of multifamily therapy in promoting retention in treatment of alcohol and cocaine dependence.

PubMed

Conner, K R; Shea, R R; McDermott, M P; Grolling, R; Tocco, R V; Baciewicz, G

1998-01-01

The authors present a model for incorporating multifamily therapy in the treatment of chemical dependency and investigate the association of family participation in multifamily therapy group with treatment retention in a sample of 164 alcohol- and/or cocaine-dependent outpatients. Results indicate that level of family attendance at a multifamily group strongly predicted completion of short-term and long-term out-patient treatment. Effects were greater for cocaine-dependent than for alcohol-dependent subjects in analyses of short-term treatment retention. Multifamily therapy may be a powerful method to engage patients families in treatment and promote treatment retention, especially in the early, intensive phases of treatment for cocaine dependency.

Cognitive Vulnerability to Depressive Symptoms in Children: The Protective Role of Self-efficacy Beliefs in a Multi-Wave Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Steca, P.; Abela, J. R. Z.; Monzani, D.; Greco, A.; Hazel, N. A.; Hankin, B. L.

2015-01-01

The current multi-wave longitudinal study on childhood examined the role that social and academic self-efficacy beliefs and cognitive vulnerabilities play in predicting depressive symptoms in response to elevations in idiographic stressors. Children (N = 554; males: 51.4%) attending second and third grade completed measures of depressive symptoms, negative cognitive styles, negative life events, and academic and social self-efficacy beliefs at four time-points over 6 months. Results showed that high levels of academic and social self-efficacy beliefs predicted lower levels of depressive symptoms, whereas negative cognitive styles about consequences predicted higher depression. Furthermore, children reporting higher social self-efficacy beliefs showed a smaller elevation in levels of depressive symptoms when reporting an increases in stress than children with lower social self-efficacy beliefs. Findings point to the role of multiple factors in predicting children’s depression in the long term and commend the promotion of self-efficacy beliefs and the modification of cognitive dysfunctional styles as relevant protective factors. PMID:23740171

Risks to children from exposure to lead in air during remedial or removal activities at Superfund sites: a case study of the RSR lead smelter Superfund site.

PubMed

Khoury, Ghassan A; Diamond, Gary L

2003-01-01

Superfund sites that are contaminated with lead and undergoing remedial action generate lead-enriched dust that can be released into the air. Activities that can emit lead-enriched dust include demolition of lead smelter buildings, stacks, and baghouses; on-site traffic of heavy construction vehicles; and excavation of soil. Typically, air monitoring stations are placed around the perimeter of a site of an ongoing remediation to monitor air lead concentrations that might result from site emissions. The National Ambient Air Quality (NAAQ) standard, established in 1978 to be a quarterly average of 1.5 microg/m(3), is often used as a trigger level for corrective action to reduce emissions. This study explored modeling approaches for assessing potential risks to children from air lead emissions from the RSR Superfund site in West Dallas, TX, during demolition and removal of a smelter facility. The EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model and the International Commission of Radiologic Protection (ICRP) lead model were used to simulate blood lead concentrations in children, based on monitored air lead concentrations. Although air lead concentrations at monitoring stations located in the downwind community intermittently exceeded the NAAQ standard, both models indicated that exposures to children in the community areas did not pose a significant long-term or acute risk. Long-term risk was defined as greater than 5% probability of a child having a long-term blood lead concentration that exceeded 10 microg/dl, which is the CDC and the EPA blood lead concern level. Short-term or acute risk was defined as greater than 5% probability of a child having a blood lead concentration on any given day that exceeded 20 microg/dl, which is the CDC trigger level for medical evaluation (this is not intended to imply that 20 microg/dl is a threshold for health effects in children exposed acutely to airborne lead). The estimated potential long-term and short-term exposures at the downwind West Dallas community did not result in more than 5% of children exceeding the target blood lead levels. The models were also used to estimate air lead levels for short-term and long-term exposures that would not exceed specified levels of risk (risk-based concentrations, RBCs). RBCs were derived for various daily exposure durations (3 or 8 h/day) and frequencies (1-7 days/week). RBCs based on the ICRP model ranged from 0.3 (7 days/week, 8 h/day) to 4.4 microg/m(3) (1 day/week, 3 h/day) for long-term exposures and were lower than those based on the IEUBK model. For short-term exposures, the RBCs ranged from 3.5 to 29.0 microg/m(3). Recontamination of remediated residential yards from deposition of air lead emitted during remedial activities at the RSR Superfund site was also examined. The predicted increase in soil concentration due to lead deposition at the monitoring station, which represented the community at large, was 3.0 mg/kg. This potential increase in soil lead concentration was insignificant, less than 1% increase, when compared to the clean-up level of 500 mg/kg developed for residential yards at the site.

Predicting the recruitment of established regeneration into the sapling size class following partial cutting in the Acadian Forest Region: Using long-term observations to assess the performance of FVS-NE

Treesearch

David Ray; Chad Keyser; Robert Seymour; John Brissette

2008-01-01

Forest managers are increasingly called upon to provide long-term predictions of forest development. The dynamics of regeneration establishment, survival and subsequent recruitment of established seedlings to larger size classes is a critical component of these forecasts, yet remains a weak link in available models. To test the reliability of FVS-NE for simulating...

Identifying predictive factors for long-term complications following button battery impactions: A case series and literature review.

PubMed

Eliason, Michael J; Melzer, Jonathan M; Winters, Jessica R; Gallagher, Thomas Q

2016-08-01

To complement a case series review of button battery impactions managed at our single military tertiary care center with a thorough literature review of laboratory research and clinical cases to develop a protocol to optimize patient care. Specifically, to identify predictive factors of long-term complications which can be used by the pediatric otolaryngologist to guide patient management after button battery impactions. A retrospective review of the Department of Defense's electronic medical record systems was conducted to identify patients with button battery ingestions and then characterize their treatment course. A thorough literature review complemented the lessons learned to identify potentially predictive clinical measures for long-term complications. Eight patients were identified as being treated for button battery impaction in the aerodigestive tract with two sustaining long-term complications. The median age of the patients treated was 33 months old and the median estimated time of impaction in the aerodigestive tract prior to removal was 10.5 h. Time of impaction, anatomic direction of the battery's negative pole, and identifying specific battery parameters were identified as factors that may be employed to predict sequelae. Based on case reviews, advancements in battery manufacturing, and laboratory research, there are distinct clinical factors that should be assessed at the time of initial therapy to guide follow-up management to minimize potential catastrophic sequelae of button battery ingestion. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Long-term semantic representations moderate the effect of attentional refreshing on episodic memory.

PubMed

Loaiza, Vanessa M; Duperreault, Kayla A; Rhodes, Matthew G; McCabe, David P

2015-02-01

The McCabe effect (McCabe, Journal of Memory and Language 58:480-494, 2008) refers to an advantage in episodic memory (EM) retrieval for memoranda studied in complex span versus simple span tasks, particularly for memoranda presented in earlier serial positions. This finding has been attributed to the necessity to refresh memoranda during complex span tasks that, in turn, promotes content-context binding in working memory (WM). Several frameworks have conceptualized WM as being embedded in long-term memory. Thus, refreshing may be less efficient when memoranda are not well-established in long-term semantic memory (SM). To investigate this, we presented words and nonwords in simple and complex span trials in order to manipulate the long-term semantic representations of the memoranda with the requirement to refresh the memoranda during WM. A recognition test was administered that required participants to make a remember-know decision for each memorandum recognized as old. The results replicated the McCabe effect, but only for words, and the beneficial effect of refreshing opportunities was exclusive to recollection. These results extend previous research by indicating that the predictive relationship between WM refreshing and long-term EM is specific to recollection and, furthermore, moderated by representations in long-term SM. This supports the predictions of WM frameworks that espouse the importance of refreshing in content-context binding, but also those that view WM as being an activated subset of and, therefore, constrained by the contents of long-term memory.

Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

Treesearch

Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

2011-01-01

Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

Ex-Vessel Core Melt Modeling Comparison between MELTSPREAD-CORQUENCH and MELCOR 2.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W.

System-level code analyses by both United States and international researchers predict major core melting, bottom head failure, and corium-concrete interaction for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1). Although system codes such as MELCOR and MAAP are capable of capturing a wide range of accident phenomena, they currently do not contain detailed models for evaluating some ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes containing more detailed modeling are available for melt spreading such as MELTSPREAD as well as long-term molten corium-concrete interaction (MCCI) and debris coolability such as CORQUENCH. In a preceding study, Enhanced Ex-Vessel Analysis for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1: Meltmore » Spreading and Core-Concrete Interaction Analyses with MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH, the MELTSPREAD-CORQUENCH codes predicted the 1F1 core melt readily cooled in contrast to predictions by MELCOR. The user community has taken notice and is in the process of updating their systems codes; specifically MAAP and MELCOR, to improve and reduce conservatism in their ex-vessel core melt models. This report investigates why the MELCOR v2.1 code, compared to the MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH 3.03 codes, yield differing predictions of ex-vessel melt progression. To accomplish this, the differences in the treatment of the ex-vessel melt with respect to melt spreading and long-term coolability are examined. The differences in modeling approaches are summarized, and a comparison of example code predictions is provided.« less

iTREE: Long-term variability of tree growth in a changing environment - identifying physiological mechanisms using stable C and O isotopes in tree rings.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegwolf, R. T. W.; Buchmann, N.; Frank, D.; Joos, F.; Kahmen, A.; Treydte, K.; Leuenberger, M.; Saurer, M.

2012-04-01

Trees play are a critical role in the carbon cycle - their photosynthetic assimilation is one of the largest terrestrial carbon fluxes and their standing biomass represents the largest carbon pool of the terrestrial biosphere. Understanding how tree physiology and growth respond to long-term environmental change is pivotal to predict the magnitude and direction of the terrestrial carbon sink. iTREE is an interdisciplinary research framework to capitalize on synergies among leading dendroclimatologists, plant physiologists, isotope specialists, and global carbon cycle modelers with the objectives of reducing uncertainties related to tree/forest growth in the context of changing natural environments. Cross-cutting themes in our project are tree rings, stable isotopes, and mechanistic modelling. We will (i) establish a European network of tree-ring based isotope time-series to retrodict interannual to long-term tree physiological changes, (ii) conduct laboratory and field experiments to adapt a mechanistic isotope model to derive plant physiological variables from tree-ring isotopes, (iii) implement this model into a dynamic global vegetation model, and perform subsequent model-data validation exercises to refine model representation of plant physiological processes and (iv) attribute long-term variation in tree growth to plant physiological and environmental drivers, and identify how our refined knowledge revises predictions of the coupled carbon-cycle climate system. We will contribute to i) advanced quantifications of long-term variation in tree growth across Central Europe, ii) novel long-term information on key physiological processes that underlie variations in tree growth, and iii) improved carbon cycle models that can be employed to revise predictions of the coupled carbon-cycle climate system. Hence iTREE will significantly contribute towards a seamless understanding of the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to long-term environmental change, and ultimately help reduce uncertainties of the magnitude and direction of the past and future terrestrial carbon sink.

Proposal of the Coagulation Score as a Predictor for Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes of Patients with Resectable Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Kanda, Mitsuro; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Mizuno, Akira; Tanaka, Yuri; Takami, Hideki; Iwata, Naoki; Hayashi, Masamichi; Niwa, Yukiko; Yamada, Suguru; Fujii, Tsutomu; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Murotani, Kenta; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

2017-02-01

Systemic hemostasis and thrombosis activation has been implicated in tumor progression and metastasis. This study aimed to investigate the use of coagulation factors as a novel prediction method for postoperative outcomes after curative gastrectomy in patients with stage II/III gastric cancer (GC). Overall, 126 patients with stage II/III GC who underwent gastrectomy between May 2003 and February 2016 were eligible for inclusion in the study. We retrospectively evaluated the predictive value of preoperative platelet count and plasma fibrinogen and d-dimer levels, and coagulation score (0: fibrinogen and d-dimer both below upper limits; 1: either fibrinogen or d-dimer over upper limits; 2: both fibrinogen and d-dimer over upper limits) for short- and long-term outcomes. Postoperative complications were significantly more frequent in patients with elevated preoperative d-dimer levels compared with those with normal d-dimer levels (26 vs. 10 %; p = 0.032). The prevalence of postoperative complications showed a stepwise increase in proportion to the coagulation score. Patients with a coagulation score of 2 had significantly larger tumors (p = 0.013) and significantly greater intraoperative blood loss (p = 0.004) than those who scored 0 or 1. Coagulation score showed the highest values distinguished high-risk patients in overall and disease-free survival, and a coagulation score of 2 was an independent prognostic factor for recurrence. Patients with a coagulation score of 2 experienced a significantly higher prevalence of liver metastasis as an initial recurrence than those who scored 0 or 1 (p = 0.019). The coagulation score is a simple and promising predictor for postoperative complications and recurrence after gastrectomy in stage II/III GC patients.

MAIAC-based long-term spatiotemporal trends of PM2.5 in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Liang, Fengchao; Xiao, Qingyang; Wang, Yujie; Lyapustin, Alexei; Li, Guoxing; Gu, Dongfeng; Pan, Xiaochuan; Liu, Yang

2018-03-01

Satellite-driven statistical models have been proven to be able to provide spatially resolved PM 2.5 estimates worldwide. The North China Plain has been suffering from severe PM 2.5 pollution in recent years. An accurate assessment of the spatiotemporal characteristics of PM 2.5 levels in this region is crucial to design effective air pollution control policy. Our objective is to estimate daily PM 2.5 concentrations at 1km spatial resolution from 2004 to 2014 in Beijing and its surrounding areas using the Multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) aerosol optical depth (AOD). A high-performance three-stage model was developed with AOD, meteorological, demographic and land use variables as predictors, which includes a custom-designed PM 2.5 gap-filling method. The 11-year average annual coverage increased from 177days to 279days and annual PM 2.5 prediction error decreased from 14.1μg/m 3 to 8.3μg/m 3 after gap-filling techniques were applied. Results show that the 11-year overall mean of predicted PM 2.5 was 67.1μg/m 3 in our study domain. The cross-validation R 2 value of our model is 0.82 in 2013 and 0.79 in 2014. In addition, the models predicted historical PM 2.5 concentrations with relatively high accuracy at the seasonal and annual levels (R 2 ranged from 0.78 to 0.86). Our long-term PM 2.5 prediction filled the gaps left by ground monitors, which would be beneficial to PM 2.5 related epidemiological studies in Beijing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reaction modeling of drainage quality in the Duluth Complex, northern Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seal, Robert; Lapakko, Kim; Piatak, Nadine; Woodruff, Laurel G.

2015-01-01

Reaction modeling can be a valuable tool in predicting the long-term behavior of waste material if representative rate constants can be derived from long-term leaching tests or other approaches. Reaction modeling using the REACT program of the Geochemist’s Workbench was conducted to evaluate long-term drainage quality affected by disseminated Cu-Ni-(Co-)-PGM sulfide mineralization in the basal zone of the Duluth Complex where significant resources have been identified. Disseminated sulfide minerals, mostly pyrrhotite and Cu-Fe sulfides, are hosted by clinopyroxene-bearing troctolites. Carbonate minerals are scarce to non-existent. Long-term simulations of up to 20 years of weathering of tailings used two different sets of rate constants: one based on published laboratory single-mineral dissolution experiments, and one based on leaching experiments using bulk material from the Duluth Complex conducted by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR). The simulations included only plagioclase, olivine, clinopyroxene, pyrrhotite, and water as starting phases. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were assumed to be in equilibrium with atmospheric oxygen. The simulations based on the published single-mineral rate constants predicted that pyrrhotite would be effectively exhausted in less than two years and pH would rise accordingly. In contrast, only 20 percent of the pyrrhotite was depleted after two years using the MNDNR rate constants. Predicted pyrrhotite depletion by the simulation based on the MNDNR rate constant matched well with published results of laboratory tests on tailings. Modeling long-term weathering of mine wastes also can provide important insights into secondary reactions that may influence the permeability of tailings and thereby affect weathering behavior. Both models predicted the precipitation of a variety of secondary phases including goethite, gibbsite, and clay (nontronite).

Predicting Trophic Interactions and Habitat Utilization in the California Current Ecosystem

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

in the California Current Ecosystem Jerome Fiechter UC Santa Cruz Institute of Marine Sciences 1156 High Street Santa Cruz, CA 95064 phone... Ecosystem (CCLME), the long-term goal of our modeling approach is to better understand and characterize biological “hotspots” (i.e., the aggregation of...multiple marine organisms over multiple trophic levels) off the U.S. west coast and in other regions where similar fully-coupled ecosystem models may

Changes in Cleanup Strategies and Long-Term Monitoring Costs for DOE FUSRAP Sites-17241

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castillo, Darina; Carpenter, Cliff; Roberts, Rebecca

2017-03-05

LM is preparing for the transfer of 11 new FUSRAP sites within the next 10 years from USACE, many of which will have substantially greater LTSM requirements than the current Completed sites. LM is analyzing the estimates for the level of effort required to monitor the new sites in order to make more customized and accurate predictions of future life cycle costs and environmental liabilities of these sites.

The EPOS-CC Score: An Integration of Independent, Tumor- and Patient-Associated Risk Factors to Predict 5-years Overall Survival Following Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

PubMed

Haga, Yoshio; Ikejiri, Koji; Wada, Yasuo; Ikenaga, Masakazu; Koike, Shoichiro; Nakamura, Seiji; Koseki, Masato

2015-06-01

Surgical audit is an essential task for the estimation of postoperative outcome and comparison of quality of care. Previous studies on surgical audits focused on short-term outcomes, such as postoperative mortality. We propose a surgical audit evaluating long-term outcome following colorectal cancer surgery. The predictive model for this audit is designated as 'Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Colorectal Cancer (EPOS-CC)'. Thirty-one tumor-related and physiological variables were prospectively collected in 889 patients undergoing elective resection for colorectal cancer between April 2005 and April 2007 in 16 Japanese hospitals. Postoperative overall survival was assessed over a 5-years period. The EPOS-CC score was established by selecting significant variables in a uni- and multivariate analysis and allocating a risk-adjusted multiplication factor to each variable using Cox regression analysis. For validation, the EPOS-CC score was compared to the predictive power of UICC stage. Inter-hospital variability of the observed-to-estimated 5-years survival was assessed to estimate quality of care. Among the 889 patients, 804 (90%) completed the 5-years follow-up. Univariate analysis displayed a significant correlation with 5-years survival for 14 physiological and nine tumor-related variables (p < 0.005). Highly significant p-values below 0.0001 were found for age, ASA score, severe pulmonary disease, respiratory history, performance status, hypoalbuminemia, alteration of hemoglobin, serum sodium level, and for all histological variables except tumor location. Age, TNM stage, lymphatic invasion, performance status, and serum sodium level were independent variables in the multivariate analysis and were entered the EPOS-CC model for the prediction of survival. Risk-adjusted multiplication factors between 1.5 (distant metastasis) and 0.16 (serum sodium level) were accorded to the different variables. The predictive power of EPOS-CC was superior to the one of UICC stage; area under the curve 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90 for EPOS-CC, and 0.80, 0.76-0.83 for UICC stage, p < 0.001. Quality of care did not differ between hospitals. The EPOS-CC score including the independent variables age, performance status, serum sodium level, TNM stage, and lymphatic invasion is superior to the UICC stage in the prediction of 5-years overall survival. This higher accuracy might be explained by the inclusion of physiological factors, thus also taking non-tumor-associated deaths into account. Furthermore, EPOS-CC score may compare quality of care among different institutions. Future studies are necessary to further evaluate this score and help improving the prediction of long-term survival following colorectal cancer surgery.

Long-term Postoperative Nutritional Status Affects Prognosis Even After Infectious Complications in Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Kiuchi, Jun; Komatsu, Shuhei; Kosuga, Toshiyuki; Kubota, Takeshi; Okamoto, Kazuma; Konishi, Hirotaka; Shiozaki, Atsushi; Fujiwara, Hitoshi; Ichikawa, Daisuke; Otsuji, Eigo

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the clinical impact of postoperative serum albumin level on severe postoperative complications (SPCs) and prognosis. Data for a total of 728 consecutive patients who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer between 2004 and 2013 were retrospectively analyzed. From these patients, a propensity score-matched analysis was performed based on 14 clinicopathological and surgical factors. Short-term decrease in postoperative serum albumin level was not associated with the occurrence of SPCs. Regarding long-term decrease in serum albumin level, a decrease of ≥0.5 g/dl at 3 months did not affect the long-term survival of patients without SPCs, but was related to a significantly poorer prognosis in patients with SPCs. By multivariate analysis, long-term decrease of serum albumin level was an independent prognostic factor in patients with SPCs. Long-term postoperative nutritional status as shown by a low level of albumin was related to prognosis in patients with SPCs. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

CO2 fertilization stimulates vegetation productivity but has little impact on hydrology in tropical rainforests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yuting; Donohue, Randall; McVicar, Tim; Roderick, Michael; Beck, Hylke

2016-04-01

Tropical rainforests contribute to ~52% of the terrestrial biomass carbon and more than one-third of global terrestrial net primary production. Thus, understanding how tropical rainforests respond to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) is essential for predicting Earth's carbon, water and energy budgets under future climate change. While the Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) technique has greatly advanced our understanding of how boreal and temperate ecosystems respond to eCO2, there are currently no FACE sites available in tropical rainforest ecosystems. Here we firstly examine the trend in long-term (1982-2010) satellite-observed leaf area index and fraction of vegetation light absorption and find only minor changes in these variables in tropical rainforests over years, suggesting that eCO2 has not increased vegetation leaf area in tropical rainforests and therefore any plant response to eCO2 occurs at the leaf-level. Following that, we investigate the long-term physiological response (i.e., leaf-level) of tropical rainforests to eCO2 from three different perspectives by: (1) analyzing long-term runoff and precipitation records in 18 unimpaired tropical rainforest catchments to provide observational evidence on the eCO2 effect from an eco-hydrological perspective; (2) developing an analytical model using gas-exchange theory to predict the effect of eCO2 from a top-down perspective; and (3) interpreting outputs from 10 process-oriented ecosystem models to examine the effect of eCO2 from a bottom-up perspective. Our results show that the observed runoff coefficient (the ratio of runoff over precipitation) and ecosystem evapotranspiration (calculated from catchment water balance) remain relatively constant in 18 unimpaired tropical catchments over 1982-2010, implying an unchanged hydrological partitioning and thus conserved transpiration under eCO2. For the same period, using 'top-down' model based on gas-exchange theory, we predict an increase in plant assimilation (A) driven directly by an enhanced light use efficiency (ɛ) at the leaf-level in response to eCO2, the magnitude of which is about the same as that of eCO2 (i.e., ~12% over 1982-2010). Simulations from ten state-of-the-art 'bottom-up' ecosystem models also confirm that in tropical rainforests, direct effect of eCO2 mainly increases A and ɛ but does not change E. Our findings add to the current limited pool of knowledge regarding the long-term eCO2 impacts in tropical rainforests and provide important scientific guidance for future ecophysiology / ecohydrology modelling and field activities conducted in the area.

Health advantages and disadvantages of weight-reducing diets: a computer analysis and critical review.

PubMed

Anderson, J W; Konz, E C; Jenkins, D J

2000-10-01

Some weight-loss diets are nutritionally sound and consistent with recommendations for healthy eating while others are "fad" diets encouraging irrational and, sometimes, unsafe practices. The purpose of the study was to compare several weight loss diets and assess their potential long-term effects. Eight popular weight-loss diets were selected (Atkins, Protein Power, Sugar Busters, Zone, ADA Exchange, High-Fiber Fitness, Pritikin and Omish) to be non-clinically analyzed by means of a computer to predict their relative benefits/potential harm. A summary description, menu plan and recommended snacks were developed for each diet. The nutrient composition of each diet was determined using computer software, and a Food Pyramid Score was calculated to compare diets. The Mensink, Hegsted and other formulae were applied to estimate coronary heart disease risk factors. Higher fat diets are higher in saturated fats and cholesterol than current dietary guidelines and their long-term use would increase serum cholesterol levels and risk for CHD. Diets restricted in sugar intake would lower serum cholesterol levels and long-term risk for CHD; however, higher carbohydrate, higher fiber, lower fat diets would have the greatest effect in decreasing serum cholesterol concentrations and risk of CHD. While high fat diets may promote short-term weight loss, the potential hazards for worsening risk for progression of atherosclerosis override the short-term benefits. Individuals derive the greatest health benefits from diets low in saturated fat and high in carbohydrate and fiber: these increase sensitivity to insulin and lower risk for CHD.

Is international junior success a reliable predictor for international senior success in elite combat sports?

PubMed

Li, Pingwei; De Bosscher, Veerle; Pion, Johan; Weissensteiner, Juanita R; Vertonghen, Jikkemien

2018-05-01

Currently in the literature, there is a dearth of empirical research that confirms whether international junior success is a reliable predictor for future international senior success. Despite the uncertainty of the junior-senior relationship, federations and coaches still tend to use junior success as a predictor for long-term senior success. A range of former investigations utilising a retrospective lens has merely focused on success that athletes attained at junior level competitions. Success that was achieved at senior-level competitions but at a junior age was relatively ignored. This study explored to what extent international senior success can be predicted based on success that athletes achieved in either international junior level competitions (i.e. junior medalists) or senior competitions at a junior age (i.e. early achievers). The sample contains 4011 international male and female athletes from three combat sports (taekwondo, wrestling and boxing), who were born between 1974 and 1990 and participated in both international junior and senior-level competitions between 1990 and 2016. Gender and sport differences were compared. The results revealed that 61.4% of the junior medalists and 90.4% of the early achievers went on to win international medals at a senior age. Among the early achievers, 92.2% of the taekwondo athletes, 68.4% of the wrestling athletes and 37.9% of the boxing athletes could be reliably "predicted" to win international senior medals. The findings demonstrate that specific to the three combat sports examined, international junior success appears to be an important predictor to long-term international senior success.

Congenital hypothyroidism: influence of disease severity and L-thyroxine treatment on intellectual, motor, and school-associated outcomes in young adults.

PubMed

Oerbeck, Beate; Sundet, Kjetil; Kase, Bengt F; Heyerdahl, Sonja

2003-10-01

To describe intellectual, motor, and school-associated outcome in young adults with early treated congenital hypothyroidism (CH) and to study the association between long-term outcome and CH variables acting at different points in time during early development (CH severity and early L-thyroxine treatment levels [0-6 years]). Neuropsychological tests were administered to all 49 subjects with CH identified during the first 3 years of the Norwegian neonatal screening program (1979-1981) at a mean age of 20 years and to 41 sibling control subjects (mean age: 21 years). The CH group attained significantly lower scores than control subjects on intellectual, motor, and school-associated tests (total IQ: 102.4 [standard deviation: 13] vs 111.4 [standard deviation: 13]). Twelve (24%) of the 49 CH subjects had not completed senior high school, in contrast to 6% of the control subjects. CH severity (pretreatment serum thyroxine [T4]) correlated primarily with motor tests, whereas early L-thyroxine treatment levels were related to verbal IQ and school-associated tests. In multiple regression analysis, initial L-thyroxine dose (beta = 0.32) and mean serum T4 level during the second year (beta = 0.48) predicted Verbal IQ, whereas mean serum T4 level during the second year (beta = 0.44) predicted Arithmetic. Long-term outcome revealed enduring cognitive and motor deficits in young adults with CH relative to control subjects. Verbal functions and Arithmetic were associated with L-thyroxine treatment variables, suggesting that more optimal treatment might be possible. Motor outcome was associated with CH severity, indicating a prenatal effect.

Envelope and intensity based prediction of psychoacoustic masking and speech intelligibility.

PubMed

Biberger, Thomas; Ewert, Stephan D

2016-08-01

Human auditory perception and speech intelligibility have been successfully described based on the two concepts of spectral masking and amplitude modulation (AM) masking. The power-spectrum model (PSM) [Patterson and Moore (1986). Frequency Selectivity in Hearing, pp. 123-177] accounts for effects of spectral masking and critical bandwidth, while the envelope power-spectrum model (EPSM) [Ewert and Dau (2000). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 108, 1181-1196] has been successfully applied to AM masking and discrimination. Both models extract the long-term (envelope) power to calculate signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Recently, the EPSM has been applied to speech intelligibility (SI) considering the short-term envelope SNR on various time scales (multi-resolution speech-based envelope power-spectrum model; mr-sEPSM) to account for SI in fluctuating noise [Jørgensen, Ewert, and Dau (2013). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 134, 436-446]. Here, a generalized auditory model is suggested combining the classical PSM and the mr-sEPSM to jointly account for psychoacoustics and speech intelligibility. The model was extended to consider the local AM depth in conditions with slowly varying signal levels, and the relative role of long-term and short-term SNR was assessed. The suggested generalized power-spectrum model is shown to account for a large variety of psychoacoustic data and to predict speech intelligibility in various types of background noise.

Do we become a different person when hitting the road? Personality development of sojourners.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Julia; Neyer, Franz J

2013-09-01

International mobility is a prevalent life event that particularly affects university students. The aim of this longitudinal study was twofold: First, we examined the impact of international mobility on personality (Big Five) change, separating self-selection effects from socialization processes. Second, we extended prior analyses on the association between life events and personality development by investigating the mechanisms that account for socialization processes. In particular, we assessed whether individual differences in the fluctuation of support relationships serve as an explanatory link. We used a prospective control group design with 3 measurement occasions. A sample of university students, containing both short-term (i.e., 1 semester) and long-term (i.e., 1 academic year) sojourners (N = 527) along with control students (N = 607), was tracked over the course of an academic year. Multivariate latent models revealed 3 main findings: First, initial (pre-departure) levels of Extraversion and Conscientiousness predicted short-term sojourning, and Extraversion and Openness predicted long-term sojourning. Second, both forms of sojourning were associated with increases in Openness and Agreeableness and a decrease in Neuroticism above and beyond the observed self-selection. Third, the acquisition of new international support relationships largely accounted for the sojourn effects on personality change. These findings help to fill the missing link between life events and personality development by establishing social relationship fluctuation as an important mediating mechanism.

Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diakov, Victor; Cole, Wesley; Sullivan, Patrick

2015-11-01

Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validitymore » of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.« less

Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

Treesearch

Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

2015-01-01

Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

PubMed

Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

2010-01-01

Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

Long-term settlement prediction at open dumping area using Hossein and Gabr method for new development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauzi, Nur Irfah Mohd; Shariffuddin, Ahmad Sulaimi; Omar, Husaini; Misran, Halina

2017-07-01

In Malaysia, the most common method of disposal is landfill/open dumping. The soil at the dumping area are mixed with waste and soil. Thus, it was called as waste soil. Due to its heterogeneity properties, waste soil has a different settlement rate because different types of waste tends to settle differently. The Hussein and Gabr model which used empirical model was proposed to compute the long-term settlement. This Hussein and Gabr model is one of the soil settlement model that can be used to predict the long-term settlement at the dumping area. The model relates between the compression index and the time factor. The time factor are t1, t2, t3 and t4. The compression index is Cα1=compression index and Cβ is biodegradation index. The duration for initial compression, the compression, the biological compression and time creep are included in the model. The sample of waste soil is taken from closed dumping area in Lukut, Negeri Sembilan with the height of waste approximately 1 to 3 meters. The sample is tested using consolidation test for determining the geotechnical parameters and compressibility index. Based on the Hossein and Gabr model, the predicted long-term settlement for 20 years (ΔH) for the waste height of 1 to 3 meters are 0.21m, 0.42m and 0.63m respectively and are below the percentages of proposed maximum settlement for waste soil which is acceptable for new development to takes place.. The types of deep or shallow foundation are proposed based on the predicted settlement. The abandoned open dumping area can now be reused for the new development after the long-term settlement are predicted and some of the precaution measures has been taken as a safety measures.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

PubMed

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E; Butler, Matthew J

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals’ Visitation to Water

PubMed Central

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G.; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E.; Butler, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs. PMID:26560518

The Interdependence of Long- and Short-Term Components in Unmasked Repetition Priming: An Indication of Shared Resources.

PubMed

Merema, Matt R; Speelman, Craig P

2015-01-01

It has been suggested that unmasked repetition priming is composed of distinct long-and short-term priming components. The current study sought to clarify the relationship between these components by examining the relationship between them. A total of 60 people (45 females, 15 males) participated in a computer-based lexical decision task designed to measure levels of short-term priming across different levels of long-term priming. The results revealed an interdependent relationship between the two components, whereby an increase in long-term priming prompted a decrease in short-term priming. Both long-term and short-term priming were accurately captured by a single power function over seven minutes post repetition, suggesting the two components may draw on the same resources. This interdependence between long- and short-term priming may serve to improve fluency in reading.

Bursts of seizures in long-term recordings of human focal epilepsy

PubMed Central

Karoly, Philippa J.; Nurse, Ewan S.; Freestone, Dean R.; Ung, Hoameng; Cook, Mark J.; Boston, Ray

2017-01-01

Summary Objective We report on temporally clustered seizures detected from continuous long-term ambulatory human electroencephalographic data. The objective was to investigate short-term seizure clustering, which we have termed bursting, and consider implications for patient care, seizure prediction, and evaluating therapies. Methods Chronic ambulatory intracranial EEG data collected for the purpose of seizure prediction were annotated to identify seizure events. A detection algorithm was used to identify bursts of events. Burst events were compared to non-burst events to evaluate event dispersion, duration and dynamics. Results Bursts of seizures were present in six of fifteen patients, and detections were consistent over long term monitoring (> 2 years). Seizures within bursts are highly overdispersed compared to non-burst seizures. There was a complicated relationship between bursts and clinical seizures, although bursts were associated with multi-modal distributions of seizure duration, and poorer predictive outcomes. For three subjects, bursts demonstrated distinctive pre-ictal dynamics compared to clinical seizures. Significance We have previously hypothesized that there are distinct physiological pathways underlying short and long duration seizures. Here we show that burst seizures fall almost exclusively within the short population of seizure durations; however, a short duration was not sufficient to induce or imply bursting. We can therefore conclude that in addition to distinct mechanisms underlying seizure duration, there are separate factors regulating bursts of seizures. We show that bursts were a robust phenomenon in our patient cohort, which were consistent with overdispersed seizure rates, suggesting long-memory dynamics. PMID:28084639

Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide

2015-12-01

Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future.

Can we "predict" long-term outcome for ambulatory transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation in patients with chronic pain?

PubMed

Köke, Albère J; Smeets, Rob J E M; Perez, Roberto S; Kessels, Alphons; Winkens, Bjorn; van Kleef, Maarten; Patijn, Jacob

2015-03-01

Evidence for effectiveness of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) is still inconclusive. As heterogeneity of chronic pain patients might be an important factor for this lack of efficacy, identifying factors for a successful long-term outcome is of great importance. A prospective study was performed to identify variables with potential predictive value for 2 outcome measures on long term (6 months); (1) continuation of TENS, and (2) a minimally clinical important pain reduction of ≥ 33%. At baseline, a set of risk factors including pain-related variables, psychological factors, and disability was measured. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, higher patient's expectations, neuropathic pain, no severe pain (< 80 mm visual analogue scale [VAS]) were independently related to long-term continuation of TENS. For the outcome "minimally clinical important pain reduction," the multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that no multisited pain (> 2 pain locations) and intermittent pain were positively and independently associated with a minimally clinical important pain reduction of ≥ 33%. The results showed that factors associated with a successful outcome in the long term are dependent on definition of successful outcome. © 2014 World Institute of Pain.

Predicting long-term survival after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Karim, Md N; Reid, Christopher M; Huq, Molla; Brilleman, Samuel L; Cochrane, Andrew; Tran, Lavinia; Billah, Baki

2018-02-01

To develop a model for predicting long-term survival following coronary artery bypass graft surgery. This study included 46 573 patients from the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZCTS) registry, who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery between 2001 and 2014. Data were randomly split into development (23 282) and validation (23 291) samples. Cox regression models were fitted separately, using the important preoperative variables, for 4 'time intervals' (31-90 days, 91-365 days, 1-3 years and >3 years), with optimal predictors selected using the bootstrap bagging technique. Model performance was assessed both in validation data and in combined data (development and validation samples). Coefficients of all 4 final models were estimated on the combined data adjusting for hospital-level clustering. The Kaplan-Meier mortality rates estimated in the sample were 1.7% at 90 days, 2.8% at 1 year, 4.4% at 2 years and 6.1% at 3 years. Age, peripheral vascular disease, respiratory disease, reduced ejection fraction, renal dysfunction, arrhythmia, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, cerebrovascular disease, hypertension, congestive heart failure, steroid use and smoking were included in all 4 models. However, their magnitude of effect varied across the time intervals. Harrell's C-statistics was 0.83, 0.78, 0.75 and 0.74 for 31-90 days, 91-365 days, 1-3 years and >3 years models, respectively. Models showed excellent discrimination and calibration in validation data. Models were developed for predicting long-term survival at 4 time intervals after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery. These models can be used in conjunction with the existing 30-day mortality prediction model. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

A Modelling Framework to Assess the Effect of Pressures on River Abiotic Habitat Conditions and Biota

PubMed Central

Kail, Jochem; Guse, Björn; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Kleinhans, Maarten; Schuurman, Filip; Fohrer, Nicola; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian

2015-01-01

River biota are affected by global reach-scale pressures, but most approaches for predicting biota of rivers focus on river reach or segment scale processes and habitats. Moreover, these approaches do not consider long-term morphological changes that affect habitat conditions. In this study, a modelling framework was further developed and tested to assess the effect of pressures at different spatial scales on reach-scale habitat conditions and biota. Ecohydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models were used to predict discharge and water quality at the catchment scale and the resulting water level at the downstream end of a study reach. Long-term reach morphology was modelled using empirical regime equations, meander migration and 2D morphodynamic models. The respective flow and substrate conditions in the study reach were predicted using a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the suitability of these habitats was assessed with novel habitat models. In addition, dispersal models for fish and macroinvertebrates were developed to assess the re-colonization potential and to finally compare habitat suitability and the availability / ability of species to colonize these habitats. Applicability was tested and model performance was assessed by comparing observed and predicted conditions in the lowland Treene River in northern Germany. Technically, it was possible to link the different models, but future applications would benefit from the development of open source software for all modelling steps to enable fully automated model runs. Future research needs concern the physical modelling of long-term morphodynamics, feedback of biota (e.g., macrophytes) on abiotic habitat conditions, species interactions, and empirical data on the hydraulic habitat suitability and dispersal abilities of macroinvertebrates. The modelling framework is flexible and allows for including additional models and investigating different research and management questions, e.g., in climate impact research as well as river restoration and management. PMID:26114430

c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

PubMed

Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

2016-10-15

The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical prediction of functional outcome after ischemic stroke: the surprising importance of periventricular white matter disease and race.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett; Lindsell, Christopher J; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Flaherty, Matthew L; Air, Ellen; Broderick, Joseph; Tsevat, Joel

2009-02-01

We sought to build models that address questions of interest to patients and families by predicting short- and long-term mortality and functional outcome after ischemic stroke, while allowing for risk restratification as comorbid events accumulate. A cohort of 451 ischemic stroke subjects in 1999 were interviewed during hospitalization, at 3 months, and at approximately 4 years. Medical records from the acute hospitalization were abstracted. All hospitalizations for 3 months poststroke were reviewed to ascertain medical and psychiatric comorbidities, which were categorized for analysis. Multivariable models were derived to predict mortality and functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 3 months and 4 years. Comorbidities were included as modifiers of the 3-month models, and included in 4-year predictions. Poststroke medical and psychiatric comorbidities significantly increased short-term poststroke mortality and morbidity. Severe periventricular white matter disease (PVWMD) was significantly associated with poor functional outcome at 3 months, independent of other factors, such as diabetes and age; inclusion of this imaging variable eliminated other traditional risk factors often found in stroke outcomes models. Outcome at 3 months was a significant predictor of long-term mortality and functional outcome. Black race was a predictor of 4-year mortality. We propose that predictive models for stroke outcome, as well as analysis of clinical trials, should include adjustment for comorbid conditions. The effects of PVWMD on short-term functional outcomes and black race on long-term mortality are findings that require confirmation.

Are groundwater nitrate concentrations reaching a turning point in some chalk aquifers?

PubMed

Smith, J T; Clarke, R T; Bowes, M J

2010-09-15

In past decades, there has been much scientific effort dedicated to the development of models for simulation and prediction of nitrate concentrations in groundwaters, but producing truly predictive models remains a major challenge. A time-series model, based on long-term variations in nitrate fertiliser applications and average rainfall, was calibrated against measured concentrations from five boreholes in the River Frome catchment of Southern England for the period spanning from the mid-1970s to 2003. The model was then used to "blind" predict nitrate concentrations for the period 2003-2008. To our knowledge, this represents the first "blind" test of a model for predicting nitrate concentrations in aquifers. It was found that relatively simple time-series models could explain and predict a significant proportion of the variation in nitrate concentrations in these groundwater abstraction points (R(2)=0.6-0.9 and mean absolute prediction errors 4.2-8.0%). The study highlighted some important limitations and uncertainties in this, and other modelling approaches, in particular regarding long-term nitrate fertiliser application data. In three of the five groundwater abstraction points (Hooke, Empool and Eagle Lodge), once seasonal variations were accounted for, there was a recent change in the generally upward historical trend in nitrate concentrations. This may be an early indication of a response to levelling-off (and declining) fertiliser application rates since the 1980s. There was no clear indication of trend change at the Forston and Winterbourne Abbas sites nor in the trend of nitrate concentration in the River Frome itself from 1965 to 2008. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Key Process Uncertainties in Soil Carbon Dynamics: Comparing Multiple Model Structures and Observational Meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Moore, J.; Averill, C.; Abramoff, R. Z.; Bradford, M.; Classen, A. T.; Hartman, M. D.; Kivlin, S. N.; Luo, Y.; Mayes, M. A.; Morrison, E. W.; Riley, W. J.; Salazar, A.; Schimel, J.; Sridhar, B.; Tang, J.; Wang, G.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

Soil carbon (C) dynamics are crucial to understanding and predicting C cycle responses to global change and soil C modeling is a key tool for understanding these dynamics. While first order model structures have historically dominated this area, a recent proliferation of alternative model structures representing different assumptions about microbial activity and mineral protection is providing new opportunities to explore process uncertainties related to soil C dynamics. We conducted idealized simulations of soil C responses to warming and litter addition using models from five research groups that incorporated different sets of assumptions about processes governing soil C decomposition and stabilization. We conducted a meta-analysis of published warming and C addition experiments for comparison with simulations. Assumptions related to mineral protection and microbial dynamics drove strong differences among models. In response to C additions, some models predicted long-term C accumulation while others predicted transient increases that were counteracted by accelerating decomposition. In experimental manipulations, doubling litter addition did not change soil C stocks in studies spanning as long as two decades. This result agreed with simulations from models with strong microbial growth responses and limited mineral sorption capacity. In observations, warming initially drove soil C loss via increased CO2 production, but in some studies soil C rebounded and increased over decadal time scales. In contrast, all models predicted sustained C losses under warming. The disagreement with experimental results could be explained by physiological or community-level acclimation, or by warming-related changes in plant growth. In addition to the role of microbial activity, assumptions related to mineral sorption and protected C played a key role in driving long-term model responses. In general, simulations were similar in their initial responses to perturbations but diverged over decadal time scales. This suggests that more long-term soil experiments may be necessary to resolve important process uncertainties related to soil C storage. We also suggest future experiments examine how microbial activity responds to warming under a range of soil clay contents and in concert with changes in litter inputs.

Long-term care: long-term care insurance--2005. End of Year Issue Brief.

PubMed

Tanner, Rachel; Bercaw, Lawren

2005-12-31

As the "Baby Boom" generation approaches retirement, state and federal lawmakers are struggling to ensure that the nation's long-term care system will provide adequate services for the growing number of senior citizens. A 2003 Administration on Aging report predicted that the elderly population will double by 2030. Accordingly, policymakers must prepare for the impending squeeze on public health and Medicaid resources. Many consumers are exploring private long-term care insurance options as a means of preparing for the cost of eldercare. Yet, a lack of market uniformity has rendered the long-term care insurance industry somewhat difficult for consumers to decipher. In addition, senior care insurance is often costly, particularly for those over age 50.

Prediction of Bispectral Index during Target-controlled Infusion of Propofol and Remifentanil: A Deep Learning Approach.

PubMed

Lee, Hyung-Chul; Ryu, Ho-Geol; Chung, Eun-Jin; Jung, Chul-Woo

2018-03-01

The discrepancy between predicted effect-site concentration and measured bispectral index is problematic during intravenous anesthesia with target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil. We hypothesized that bispectral index during total intravenous anesthesia would be more accurately predicted by a deep learning approach. Long short-term memory and the feed-forward neural network were sequenced to simulate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parts of an empirical model, respectively, to predict intraoperative bispectral index during combined use of propofol and remifentanil. Inputs of long short-term memory were infusion histories of propofol and remifentanil, which were retrieved from target-controlled infusion pumps for 1,800 s at 10-s intervals. Inputs of the feed-forward network were the outputs of long short-term memory and demographic data such as age, sex, weight, and height. The final output of the feed-forward network was the bispectral index. The performance of bispectral index prediction was compared between the deep learning model and previously reported response surface model. The model hyperparameters comprised 8 memory cells in the long short-term memory layer and 16 nodes in the hidden layer of the feed-forward network. The model training and testing were performed with separate data sets of 131 and 100 cases. The concordance correlation coefficient (95% CI) were 0.561 (0.560 to 0.562) in the deep learning model, which was significantly larger than that in the response surface model (0.265 [0.263 to 0.266], P < 0.001). The deep learning model-predicted bispectral index during target-controlled infusion of propofol and remifentanil more accurately compared to the traditional model. The deep learning approach in anesthetic pharmacology seems promising because of its excellent performance and extensibility.

Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

2017-12-01

Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13-24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CREB expression in the brains of two closely related parasitic wasp species that differ in long-term memory formation.

PubMed

van den Berg, M; Verbaarschot, P; Hontelez, S; Vet, L E M; Dicke, M; Smid, H M

2010-06-01

The cAMP/PKA signalling pathway and transcription factor cAMP response element-binding protein (CREB) play key roles in long-term memory (LTM) formation. We used two closely related parasitic wasp species, Cotesia glomerata and Cotesia rubecula, which were previously shown to be different in LTM formation, and sequenced at least nine different CREB transcripts in both wasp species. The splicing patterns, functional domains and amino acid sequences were similar to those found in the CREB genes of other organisms. The predicted amino acid sequences of the CREB isoforms were identical in both wasp species. Using real-time quantitative PCR we found that two low abundant CREB transcripts are differentially expressed in the two wasps, whereas the expression levels of high abundant transcripts are similar.

Disturbance affects short-term facilitation, but not long-term saturation, of exotic plant invasion in New Zealand forest

PubMed Central

Spence, Laura A.; Ross, Joshua V.; Wiser, Susan K.; Allen, Robert B.; Coomes, David A.

2011-01-01

We investigate the spread of an exotic herb, Hieracium lepidulum, into a New Zealand Nothofagus forest with the aim of understanding how stand-development of tree populations, propagule pressure and invader persistence, affect invasion across the landscape and within communities. Using data repeatedly collected over 35 years, from 250 locations, we parametrize continuous-time Markov chain models and use these models to examine future projections of the invasion under a range of hypothetical scenarios. We found that the probability of invasion into a stand was relatively high following canopy disturbance and that local abundance of Hieracium was promoted by minor disturbances. However, model predictions extrapolated 45 years into the future show that neither the rate of landscape-level invasion, nor local population growth of Hieracium, was affected much by changing the frequency of canopy disturbance events. Instead, invasion levels were strongly affected by the ability of Hieracium to persist in the understorey following forest canopy closure, and by propagule supply from streams, forest edges and plants already established within the stand. Our results show that disturbance frequency has surprisingly little influence on the long-term trajectory of invasion, while invader persistence strongly determines invasion patterns. PMID:20980298

Predictive aging results in radiation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Clough, Roger L.

1993-06-01

We have previously derived a time-temperature-dose rate superposition methodology, which, when applicable, can be used to predict polymer degradation versus dose rate, temperature and exposure time. This methodology results in predictive capabilities at the low dose rates and long time periods appropriate, for instance, to ambient nuclear power plant environments. The methodology was successfully applied to several polymeric cable materials and then verified for two of the materials by comparisons of the model predictions with 12 year, low-dose-rate aging data on these materials from a nuclear environment. In this paper, we provide a more detailed discussion of the methodology and apply it to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicone rubber and two ethylene-tetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7-9 year) low-dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under bnuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we find indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following "generic" materials: hypalon, ethylene-tetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such "generic" behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated.

Latent fluctuation periods and long-term forecasting of the level of Markakol lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madibekov, A. S.; Babkin, A. V.; Musakulkyzy, A.; Cherednichenko, A. V.

2018-01-01

The analysis of time series of the level of Markakol Lake by the method of “Periodicities” reveals in its variations the harmonics with the periods of 12 and 14 years, respectively. The verification forecasts of the lake level by the trend tendency and by its combination with these sinusoids were computed with the lead time of 5 and 10 years. The estimation of the forecast results by the new independent data permitted to conclude that forecasts by the combination of the sinusoids and trend tendency are better than by the trend tendency only. They are no worse than the mean value prediction.

The Evolution of Autistic-Like and Schizotypal Traits: A Sexual Selection Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Del Giudice, Marco; Angeleri, Romina; Brizio, Adelina; Elena, Marco R.

2010-01-01

In this paper we present a new hypothesis on the evolution of autistic-like and schizotypal personality traits. We argue that autistic-like and schizotypal traits contribute in opposite ways to individual differences in reproductive and mating strategies, and have been maintained – at least in part – by sexual selection through mate choice. Whereas positive schizotypy can be seen as a psychological phenotype oriented to high-mating effort and good genes displays in both sexes, autistic-like traits in their non-pathological form contribute to a male-typical strategy geared toward high parental investment, low-mating effort, and long-term resource allocation. At the evolutionary-genetic level, this sexual selection hypothesis is consistent with Crespi and Badcock's “imprinted brain” theory of autism and psychosis; the effect of offspring mating behavior on resource flow within the family connects sexual selection with genomic imprinting in the context of human biparental care. We conclude by presenting the results of an empirical study testing one of the predictions derived from our hypothesis. In a sample of 199 college students, autistic-like traits predicted lower interest in short-term mating, higher partner-specific investment, and stronger commitment to long-term romantic relations, whereas positive schizotypy showed the opposite pattern of effects. PMID:21833210

Relationship status and relationship instability, but not dominance, predict individual differences in baseline cortisol levels.

PubMed

Maestripieri, Dario; Klimczuk, Amanda C E; Seneczko, Marianne; Traficonte, Daniel M; Wilson, M Claire

2013-01-01

We investigated variation in baseline cortisol levels in relation to relationship status (single or in a relationship), relationship characteristics (length, stability, presence or absence of clear dominance), or individual attributes (dominant or subordinate status, relative physical attractiveness, relationship worries). Study participants were 77 men and 75 women aged between 18 and 38 years. Individuals in romantic relationships had lower cortisol levels than singles. Individuals of African ethnicity, however, showed the opposite pattern. Individuals who perceived their relationship to be highly unstable had higher cortisol levels. Aside from African-Americans, married individuals reported the lowest relationship instability and the lowest cortisol levels, followed by individuals in long-term relationships, and by individuals in short-term relationships. The presence or absence of clear dominance in the relationship, dominance status, or relationship worries did not affect cortisol levels. Therefore relationship status and relationship instability were better predictors of variation in cortisol (presumably through stress-related mechanisms) than individual attributes.

Prediction, scenarios and insight: The uses of an end-to-end model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, John H.

2012-09-01

A major function of ecosystem models is to provide extrapolations from observed data in terms of predictions or scenarios or insight. These models can be at various levels of taxonomic resolution such as total community production, abundance of functional groups, or species composition, depending on the data input as drivers. A 40-year dynamic simulation of end-to-end processes in the Georges Bank food web is used to illustrate the input/output relations and the insights gained at the three levels of food web aggregation. The focus is on the intermediate level and the longer term changes in three functional fish guilds - planktivores, benthivores and piscivores - in terms of three ecosystem-based metrics - nutrient input, relative productivity of plankton and benthos, and food intake by juvenile fish. These simulations can describe the long term constraints imposed on guild structure and productivity by energy fluxes over the 40 years but cannot explain concurrent switches in abundance of individual species within guilds. Comparing time series data for individual species with model output provides insights; but including the data in the model would confer only limited extra information. The advantages and limitations of the three levels of resolution of models in relation to ecosystem-based management are: The correlations between primary production and total yield of fish imply a “bottom-up” constraint on end-to-end energy flow through the food web that can provide predictions of such yields. Functionally defined metrics such as nutrient input, relative productivity of plankton and benthos and food intake by juvenile fish, represent bottom-up, mid-level and top-down forcing of the food web. Model scenarios using these metrics can demonstrate constraints on the productivity of these functionally defined guilds within the limits set by (1). Comparisons of guild simulations with time series of fish species provide insight into the switches in species dominance that accompany changes in guild productivity and can illuminate the top-down aspects of regime shifts.

Uncovering the most effective active ingredients of antismoking public service announcements: the role of actor and message characteristics.

PubMed

Shadel, William G; Fryer, Craig S; Tharp-Taylor, Shannah

2009-05-01

This study examined whether the appeal of actors (i.e., their likeability and attractiveness) used in antismoking public service announcements (PSAs) interacts with adolescents' risk of future smoking to predict adolescents' smoking resistance self-efficacy and whether the antismoking messages in the PSAs further moderate this relationship. We used a 2 (future smoking risk: low, high) x 2 (actor appeal: low, high) x 3 (PSA antismoking message: tobacco industry manipulation, short-term smoking effects, long-term smoking effects) study design. A diverse sample of 110 adolescents (aged 11-17 years), with varying levels of experience with smoking, rated their smoking resistance self-efficacy after viewing each of the PSAs in each design cell. Overall, PSAs that used long-term smoking effects messages were associated with the strongest smoking resistance self-efficacy, followed in turn by PSAs that used short-term smoking effects messages and by tobacco industry manipulation messages. We found a significant interaction of actor appeal and PSA antismoking message. The use of more appealing actors was associated with stronger smoking resistance self-efficacy only in long-term smoking effects PSAs. The use of less appealing actors was associated with stronger smoking resistance self-efficacy for tobacco industry manipulation PSAs and short-term smoking effects PSAs. Future smoking risk did not moderate any of these findings. Antismoking PSAs that emphasize long-term smoking effects are most strongly associated with increased smoking resistance self-efficacy. The effect of these PSAs can be strengthened by using actors whom adolescents perceive to be appealing.

Uncovering the most effective active ingredients of antismoking public service announcements: The role of actor and message characteristics

PubMed Central

Fryer, Craig S.; Tharp-Taylor, Shannah

2009-01-01

Introduction: This study examined whether the appeal of actors (i.e., their likeability and attractiveness) used in antismoking public service announcements (PSAs) interacts with adolescents’ risk of future smoking to predict adolescents’ smoking resistance self-efficacy and whether the antismoking messages in the PSAs further moderate this relationship. Methods: We used a 2 (future smoking risk: low, high) × 2 (actor appeal: low, high) × 3 (PSA antismoking message: tobacco industry manipulation, short-term smoking effects, long-term smoking effects) study design. A diverse sample of 110 adolescents (aged 11–17 years), with varying levels of experience with smoking, rated their smoking resistance self-efficacy after viewing each of the PSAs in each design cell. Results: Overall, PSAs that used long-term smoking effects messages were associated with the strongest smoking resistance self-efficacy, followed in turn by PSAs that used short-term smoking effects messages and by tobacco industry manipulation messages. We found a significant interaction of actor appeal and PSA antismoking message. The use of more appealing actors was associated with stronger smoking resistance self-efficacy only in long-term smoking effects PSAs. The use of less appealing actors was associated with stronger smoking resistance self-efficacy for tobacco industry manipulation PSAs and short-term smoking effects PSAs. Future smoking risk did not moderate any of these findings. Discussion: Antismoking PSAs that emphasize long-term smoking effects are most strongly associated with increased smoking resistance self-efficacy. The effect of these PSAs can be strengthened by using actors whom adolescents perceive to be appealing. PMID:19372574

Long term solar activity and ionospheric prediction services rendered by the National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddy, B. M.; Aggarwal, S.; Lakshmi, D. R.; Shastri, S.; Mitra, A. P.

1979-01-01

The data base used in solar and ionospheric prediction services is described. Present prediction techniques are discussed and compared with actual observations. Future prediction techniques using computers are also discussed.

Cross-cultural validation of the St. Louis Inventory of Community Living Skills for Chinese patients with schizophrenia in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Au, Raymond Wing Cheong; Tam, Peter Wai Chung; Tam, Gladys Wai Chi; Ungvari, Gabor Sander

2005-01-01

The study validated a culturally sensitive community living skills rating scale for Chinese patients by adapting the St. Louis Inventory of Community Living Skills (SLICLS). The Chinese version (SLICLS-C) was produced by forward and backward translation. An expert panel evaluated its content validity. Its internal consistency, inter-rater reliability, construct and concurrent validity were tested on 80 DSM-IV schizophrenia inpatients in a long-term facility. For predictive validity, the above sample was extended to ensure at least 20 subjects discharged to each of three levels of community care were included in the study sample. The SLICLS-C was psychometrically sound and could be used for predicting level of community care, program evaluation and measuring outcome.

Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

2017-02-01

UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

A new ionospheric index MF2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhailov, A. V.; Mikhailov, V. V.

1995-02-01

A new ionospheric index MF2 to improve monthly median foF2 regression and prediction accuracy is proposed. The interhemispheric magnetic conjunction of the F2-region was used to derive this index for the northern hemisphere. Since the monthly MF2 index varies in regular way with the season and in the course of solar cycle this allows an easy long-term prediction. Using MF2 instead of direct solar R12 index considerably improves the quality of the foF2 versus solar activity level regression (by 30% for middle, and by 10% for high latitudes.) For the rising phase of solar cycle 22, MF2 yields much better foF2 prediction accuracy than Consultative Committee on International Radiopropagation (CCIR) numerical maps can achieve.

Predictors of short- and long-term avoidance in completers of inpatient group interventions for agoraphobia.

PubMed

Hoffart, Asle; Øktedalen, Tuva; Svanøe, Karol; Hedley, Liv M; Sexton, Harold

2015-08-01

Little is currently known about predictors of follow-up outcome of psychological treatment of agoraphobia. In this study, we wished to examine predictors of short- and long-term avoidance after inpatient group interventions for agoraphobia. Ninety-six (68%) of 141 agoraphobic patients (74% women) who had completed treatment in two open and one randomized controlled trial (RCT) were followed up 13 to 21 years after start of treatment. Major depression at pre-treatment predicted less short-term (up to one year after end of treatment) improvement in agoraphobic avoidance. Working and being married/cohabiting at pre-treatment predicted greater long-term (across one-year, two-year, and 13-21 years follow-up) improvement. In contrast, the duration of agoraphobia, amount of Axis I and II co-morbidity, being diagnosed with avoidant, dependent, and obsessive-compulsive personality disorder, and the use of antidepressants and benzodiazepines the month before intake to treatment, were unrelated to short-term as well as long-term outcome. As many as 31.9% of the included patients did not attend long-term follow-up and the power of the study was limited. The long time period between the two and 13-21 year follow-ups is a limitation, in which it is difficult to assess what actually happened. Although all the patients received some form of CBT, there was variability among the treatments. The only short-term predictor identified represented a clinical feature, whereas the long-term predictors represented features of the patients' life situation. The limited power of the study precludes the inference that non-significant predictors are unrelated to follow-up outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preexisting depressive symptoms are associated with long-term cognitive decline in patients after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Patron, Elisabetta; Messerotti Benvenuti, Simone; Zanatta, Paolo; Polesel, Elvio; Palomba, Daniela

2013-01-01

To examine whether preoperative psychological dysfunctions rather than intraoperative factors may differentially predict short- and long-term postoperative cognitive decline (POCD) in patients after cardiac surgery. Forty-two patients completed a psychological evaluation, including the Trail Making Test Part A and B (TMT-A/B), the memory with 10/30-s interference, the phonemic verbal fluency and the Center for Epidemiological Studies of Depression (CES-D) scale for cognitive functions and depressive symptoms, respectively, before surgery, at discharge and at 18-month follow-up. Ten (24%) and 11 (26%) patients showed POCD at discharge and at 18-month follow-up, respectively. The duration of cardiopulmonary bypass significantly predicted short-term POCD [odds ratio (OR)=1.04, P<.05], whereas preoperative psychological factors were unrelated to cognitive decline at discharge. Conversely, long-term cognitive decline after cardiac surgery was significantly predicted by preoperative scores in the CES-D (OR=1.26, P<.03) but not by intraoperative variables (all Ps >.23). Our findings showed that preexisting depressive symptoms rather than perioperative risk factors are associated with cognitive decline 18 months after cardiac surgery. This study suggests that a preoperative psychological evaluation of depressive symptoms is essential to anticipate which patients are likely to show long-term cognitive decline after cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does NVIX matter for market volatility? Evidence from Asia-Pacific markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Zhi; Fang, Tong; Yin, Libo

2018-02-01

Forecasting financial market volatility is an important issue in the area of econophysics, and revealing the determinants of the market volatility has drawn much attentions of the academics. In order to better predict market volatilities, we use news-based implied volatility (NVIX) to measure uncertainty, and examine the predictive power of NVIX on the stock market volatility in both long and short-term among Asia-Pacific markets via GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that NVIX does not well explain long-term volatility variants in the full sample period, and it is positively associated with market volatility through a subsample analysis starting from the Financial Crisis. We also find that NVIX is more efficient in determining short-term volatility than the long-term volatility, indicating that the impact of NVIX is short-lived and information that investors concern could be quickly reflected in the stock market volatilities.

Long-term culture and cryopreservation does not affect the stability and functionality of human embryonic stem cell-derived hepatocyte-like cells.

PubMed

Mandal, Arundhati; Raju, Sheena; Viswanathan, Chandra

2016-02-01

Human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) are predicted to be an unlimited source of hepatocytes which can pave the way for applications such as cell replacement therapies or as a model of human development or even to predict the hepatotoxicity of drug compounds. We have optimized a 23-d differentiation protocol to generate hepatocyte-like cells (HLCs) from hESCs, obtaining a relatively pure population which expresses the major hepatic markers and is functional and mature. The stability of the HLCs in terms of hepato-specific marker expression and functionality was found to be intact even after an extended period of in vitro culture and cryopreservation. The hESC-derived HLCs have shown the capability to display sensitivity and an alteration in the level of CYP enzyme upon drug induction. This illustrates the potential of such assays in predicting the hepatotoxicity of a drug compound leading to advancement of pharmacology.

Fluctuating asymmetry rather than oxidative stress in Bufo raddei can be an accurate indicator of environmental pollution induced by heavy metals.

PubMed

Guo, Rui; Zhang, Wenya; Ai, Shiwei; Ren, Liang; Zhang, Yingmei

2017-06-01

Oxidative stress (OS) and fluctuating asymmetry (FA) as risk markers for environmental stress are widely used to predict changes in the health and fitness of many animals exposed to pollutants. However, from the perspective of protecting declining amphibians, it remains to be verified which one would be a reliable indicator for amphibians exposed to long-term heavy metal pollution under natural conditions. In this study, the OS and FA of Bufo raddei exposed to natural heavy metal pollution were analyzed to determine which marker is more accurate for indicating heavy metal-induced stress. Three years of data were collected during the breeding season of B. raddei from Baiyin (BY), which has been mainly contaminated with Cu, Zn, Pb, and Cd compounds for a long period, and from Liujiaxia (LJX), which is a relatively unpolluted area. Unexpectedly, although significant accumulation of the four heavy metals was found in the kidney and liver of B. raddei from BY, the levels of superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase, and malondialdehyde in these two organs were found to be irregular, with low repeatability in both BY and LJX. However, significant differences in the levels of FA were observed in B. raddei populations from these two areas over the past 3 years (P < 0.01). The degrees of FA in B. raddei populations from BY and LJX were assessed as degree 4 and 1, respectively. In short, this study suggested that FA was a more reliable and effective indicator than OS to monitor and predict long-term environmental stress on anuran amphibians.

The diversification of Paleozoic fire systems and fluctuations in atmospheric oxygen concentration

PubMed Central

Scott, Andrew C.; Glasspool, Ian J.

2006-01-01

By comparing Silurian through end Permian [≈250 million years (Myr)] charcoal abundance with contemporaneous macroecological changes in vegetation and climate we aim to demonstrate that long-term variations in fire occurrence and fire system diversification are related to fluctuations in Late Paleozoic atmospheric oxygen concentration. Charcoal, a proxy for fire, occurs in the fossil record from the Late Silurian (≈420 Myr) to the present. Its presence at any interval in the fossil record is already taken to constrain atmospheric oxygen within the range of 13% to 35% (the “fire window”). Herein, we observe that, as predicted, atmospheric oxygen levels rise from ≈13% in the Late Devonian to ≈30% in the Late Permian so, too, fires progressively occur in an increasing diversity of ecosystems. Sequentially, data of note include: the occurrence of charcoal in the Late Silurian/Early Devonian, indicating the burning of a diminutive, dominantly rhyniophytoid vegetation; an apparent paucity of charcoal in the Middle to Late Devonian that coincides with a predicted atmospheric oxygen low; and the subsequent diversification of fire systems throughout the remainder of the Late Paleozoic. First, fires become widespread during the Early Mississippian, they then become commonplace in mire systems in the Middle Mississippian; in the Pennsylvanian they are first recorded in upland settings and finally, based on coal petrology, become extremely important in many Permian mire settings. These trends conform well to changes in atmospheric oxygen concentration, as predicted by modeling, and indicate oxygen levels are a significant control on long-term fire occurrence. PMID:16832054

Does workplace social capital protect against long-term sickness absence? Linking workplace aggregated social capital to sickness absence registry data.

PubMed

Hansen, Anne-Sophie K; Madsen, Ida E H; Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Melkevik, Ole; Bjørner, Jakob Bue; Andersen, Ingelise; Rugulies, Reiner

2018-05-01

Most previous prospective studies have examined workplace social capital as a resource of the individual. However, literature suggests that social capital is a collective good. In the present study we examined whether a high level of workplace aggregated social capital (WASC) predicts a decreased risk of individual-level long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in Danish private sector employees. A sample of 2043 employees (aged 18-64 years, 38.5% women) from 260 Danish private-sector companies filled in a questionnaire on workplace social capital and covariates. WASC was calculated by assigning the company-averaged social capital score to all employees of each company. We derived LTSA, defined as sickness absence of more than three weeks, from a national register. We examined if WASC predicted employee LTSA using multilevel survival analyses, while excluding participants with LTSA in the three months preceding baseline. We found no statistically significant association in any of the analyses. The hazard ratio for LTSA in the fully adjusted model was 0.93 (95% CI 0.77-1.13) per one standard deviation increase in WASC. When using WASC as a categorical exposure we found a statistically non-significant tendency towards a decreased risk of LTSA in employees with medium WASC (fully adjusted model: HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.48-1.27)). Post hoc analyses with workplace social capital as a resource of the individual showed similar results. WASC did not predict LTSA in this sample of Danish private-sector employees.

Attentional Bias to Negative Affect Moderates Negative Affect’s Relationship with Smoking Abstinence

PubMed Central

Etcheverry, Paul E.; Waters, Andrew J.; Lam, Cho; Correa-Fernandez, Virmarie; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Cinciripini, Paul M.; Wetter, David W.

2016-01-01

Objective To examine whether initial orienting (IO) and inability to disengage attention (ITD) from negative affective stimuli moderate the association of negative affect with smoking abstinence during a quit attempt. Methods Data were from a longitudinal cohort study of smoking cessation (N=424). A negative affect modified Stroop was administered one week before and on quit day to measure IO and ITD. Ecological Momentary Assessments were used to create negative affect intercepts and linear slopes for the week before quitting and on quit day. Quit day and long-term abstinence measures were collected. Results Continuation ratio (CR) logit model analyses found significant interactions of pre-quit negative affect slope with pre-quit ITD [OR = .738(.57, .96), p= .02] and quit day negative affect intercept with quit day ITD [OR = .62(.41, 950), p= .03] predicting abstinence. The interaction of pre-quit negative affect intercept and pre-quit IO predicting quit day abstinence was significant [OR = 1.42(1.06, 1.90), p= .02], as was the interaction of quit day negative affect slope and quit day IO predicting long-term abstinence [OR = 1.45(1.02, 2.08), p= .04]. Conclusions The hypothesis that the association of negative affect with smoking abstinence would be moderated by ITD was generally supported. Among individuals with high ITD, negative affect was inversely related to abstinence, but unrelated to abstinence among individuals with lower levels of ITD. Unexpectedly, among individuals with low IO negative affect was inversely related to abstinence, but unrelated to abstinence among individuals with higher levels of ITD. PMID:27505211

Attentional bias to negative affect moderates negative affect's relationship with smoking abstinence.

PubMed

Etcheverry, Paul E; Waters, Andrew J; Lam, Cho; Correa-Fernandez, Virmarie; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Cinciripini, Paul M; Wetter, David W

2016-08-01

To examine whether initial orienting (IO) and inability to disengage (ITD) attention from negative affective stimuli moderate the association of negative affect with smoking abstinence during a quit attempt. Data were from a longitudinal cohort study of smoking cessation (N = 424). A negative affect modified Stroop task was administered 1 week before and on quit day to measure IO and ITD. Ecological Momentary Assessments were used to create negative affect intercepts and linear slopes for the week before quitting and on quit day. Quit day and long-term abstinence measures were collected. Continuation ratio logit model analyses found significant interactions for prequit negative affect slope with prequit ITD, odds ratio (OR) = 0.738 (0.57, 0.96), p = .02, and for quit day negative affect intercept with quit day ITD, OR = 0.62 (0.41, 950), p = .03, predicting abstinence. The Prequit Negative Affect Intercept × Prequit IO interaction predicting quit day abstinence was significant, OR = 1.42 (1.06, 1.90), p = .02, as was the Quit Day Negative Affect Slope × Quit Day IO interaction predicting long-term abstinence, OR = 1.45 (1.02, 2.08), p = .04. The hypothesis that the association of negative affect with smoking abstinence would be moderated by ITD was generally supported. Among individuals with high ITD, negative affect was inversely related to abstinence, but unrelated to abstinence among individuals with lower levels of ITD. Unexpectedly, among individuals with low IO, negative affect was inversely related to abstinence, but unrelated to abstinence among individuals with higher levels of ITD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Does workplace social capital protect against long-term sickness absence? Linking workplace aggregated social capital to sickness absence registry data

PubMed Central

Hansen, Anne-Sophie K.; Madsen, Ida E. H.; Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Melkevik, Ole; Bjørner, Jakob Bue; Andersen, Ingelise; Rugulies, Reiner

2017-01-01

Aims: Most previous prospective studies have examined workplace social capital as a resource of the individual. However, literature suggests that social capital is a collective good. In the present study we examined whether a high level of workplace aggregated social capital (WASC) predicts a decreased risk of individual-level long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in Danish private sector employees. Methods: A sample of 2043 employees (aged 18–64 years, 38.5% women) from 260 Danish private-sector companies filled in a questionnaire on workplace social capital and covariates. WASC was calculated by assigning the company-averaged social capital score to all employees of each company. We derived LTSA, defined as sickness absence of more than three weeks, from a national register. We examined if WASC predicted employee LTSA using multilevel survival analyses, while excluding participants with LTSA in the three months preceding baseline. Results: We found no statistically significant association in any of the analyses. The hazard ratio for LTSA in the fully adjusted model was 0.93 (95% CI 0.77–1.13) per one standard deviation increase in WASC. When using WASC as a categorical exposure we found a statistically non-significant tendency towards a decreased risk of LTSA in employees with medium WASC (fully adjusted model: HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.48–1.27)). Post hoc analyses with workplace social capital as a resource of the individual showed similar results. Conclusions: WASC did not predict LTSA in this sample of Danish private-sector employees. PMID:28784025

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lopez, Anthony; Maclaurin, Galen; Roberts, Billy

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY)more » resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.« less

Pyridostigmine bromide and the long-term subjective health status of a sample of female reserve component Gulf War veterans: a brief report.

PubMed

Schumm, W R; Reppert, E J; Jurich, A P; Bollman, S R; Castelo, C; Sanders, D; Webb, F J

2001-02-01

The role of pyridostigmine bromide (PB) pills in explaining the long-term subjective health status of a sample of over 100 female Reserve Component Gulf War veterans was examined through regression analysis. Results fell just short of significance (p < .06) for the prediction of subjective health approximately six years after the war and were clearly not significant for the prediction of subjective health at previous times. Results parallel Golomb's 1999 RAND report, which found suggestive but not conclusive evidence for the possible adverse effects of Gulf War veterans' consumption of pyridostigmine bromide pills. Our data suggest that use of more than 10 pills may have been especially risky with respect to long-term subjective health.

Long-Term Evolution of the Sun and our Biosphere: Causes and Effects?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Des Marais, D. J.

2000-05-01

The course of early biological evolution felt the environmental consequences of changes in the solar output (discussed here), as well as long-term decreases in planetary heat flow and the flux of extraterrestrial impactors. A large, early UV flux fueled the photodissociation of atmospheric water vapor, sustaining a significant hydrogen flux to space. This flux caused Earth's crust to become oxidized, relative to its mantle. Accordingly, reduced gases and aqueous solutes that were erupted volcanically into the relatively more oxidized surface environment created sources of chemical redox energy for the origin and early evolution of life. Although the solar constant has increased some 30 percent over Earth's lifetime, oceans remained remarkably stable for more than 3.8 billion years. Thus a very effective climate regulation was probably achieved by decreasing over time the atmospheric inventories of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. Such decreases probably had major consequences for the biosphere. Substantial early marine bicarbonate and carbon dioxide inventories sustained abundant abiotic precipitation of carbonates, with consequences for the stability and habitability of key aqueous environments. A long-term decline in carbon dioxide levels increased the bioenergetic requirements for carbon dioxide as well as other aspects of the physiology of photosynthetic microorganisms. The long-term trend of global mean surface temperature is still debated, as is the role of the sun's evolution in that trend. Future increases in the solar constant will drive atmospheric carbon dioxide levels down further, challenging plants to cope with ever-dwindling concentrations of carbon substrates. Climate regulation will be achieved by modulating an increasing abundance of high-albedo water vapor clouds. Future biological evolution defies precise predictions, however it is certain that the sun's continuing evolution will play a key role.

Cognitive and Guided Mastery Therapies for Panic Disorder with Agoraphobia: 18-Year Long-Term Outcome and Predictors of Long-Term Change.

PubMed

Hoffart, Asle; Hedley, Liv M; Svanøe, Karol; Sexton, Harold

2016-01-01

In this study, we wished to compare the long-term outcome of (medication-free) panic disorder with agoraphobia patients randomized to cognitive or guided mastery therapy. Thirty-one (67.4%) of 46 patients who had completed treatment were followed up about 18 years after end of treatment. In the combined sample and using intent-to-follow-up analyses, there were large within-group effect sizes of -1.79 and -1.63 on the primary interview-based and self-report outcome measures of avoidance of situations when alone, and 56.5% no longer had a panic disorder and/or agoraphobia diagnosis. No outcome differences between the two treatments emerged. Guided mastery was associated with greater beneficial changes in catastrophic beliefs and self-efficacy. For two of five outcome measures, more reduction in panic-related beliefs about physical and mental catastrophes from pre- to post-treatment predicted lower level of anxiety from post-treatment to 18-year follow-up when the effect of treatment changes in (a) self-efficacy and (b) anxiety was controlled. However, for one of the outcome measures, this effect attenuated with time. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. The results suggest that the very-long-term outcome of both cognitive therapy and guided mastery therapy for agoraphobia is positive. The results support the role of catastrophic beliefs as mediator of change. The pattern of results suggests that learning processes other than catastrophic beliefs may be important for long-term outcome as well. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accelerated Test Method for Corrosion Protective Coatings Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falker, John; Zeitlin, Nancy; Calle, Luz

2015-01-01

This project seeks to develop a new accelerated corrosion test method that predicts the long-term corrosion protection performance of spaceport structure coatings as accurately and reliably as current long-term atmospheric exposure tests. This new accelerated test method will shorten the time needed to evaluate the corrosion protection performance of coatings for NASA's critical ground support structures. Lifetime prediction for spaceport structure coatings has a 5-year qualification cycle using atmospheric exposure. Current accelerated corrosion tests often provide false positives and negatives for coating performance, do not correlate to atmospheric corrosion exposure results, and do not correlate with atmospheric exposure timescales for lifetime prediction.

Chinese L1 children's English L2 verb morphology over time: individual variation in long-term outcomes.

PubMed

Paradis, Johanne; Tulpar, Yasemin; Arppe, Antti

2016-05-01

This study examined accuracy in production and grammaticality judgements of verb morphology by eighteen Chinese-speaking children learning English as a second language (L2) followed longitudinally from four to six years of exposure to English, and who began to learn English at age 4;2. Children's growth in accuracy with verb morphology reached a plateau by six years, where 11/18 children did not display native-speaker levels of accuracy for one or more morphemes. Variation in children's accuracy with verb morphology was predicted by their English vocabulary size and verbal short-term memories primarily, and quality and quantity of English input at home secondarily. This study shows that even very young L2 learners might not all catch up to native speakers in this time frame and that non-age factors play a role in determining individual variation in child L2 learners' long-term outcomes with English morphology.

Predictive Service Life Tests for Roofing Membranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, David M.; Cash, Carl G.; Davies, Arthur G.

2002-09-01

The average service life of roofing membranes used in low-slope applications on U.S. Army buildings is estimated to be considerably shorter than the industry-presumed 20-year design life, even when installers carefully adhere to the latest guide specifications. This problem is due in large part to market-driven product development cycles, which do not include time for long-term field testing. To reduce delivery costs, contractors may provide untested, interior membranes in place of ones proven satisfactory in long-term service. Federal procurement regulations require that roofing systems and components be selected according to desired properties and generic type, not brand name. The problem is that a material certified to have satisfactory properties at installation time will not necessarily retain those properties in service. The overall objective of this research is to develop a testing program that can be executed in a matter of weeks to adequately predict a membrane's long-term performance in service. This report details accelerated aging tests of 12 popular membrane materials in the laboratory, and describes outdoor experiment stations set up for long-term exposure tests of those same membranes. The laboratory results will later be correlated with the outdoor test results to develop performance models and predictive service life tests.

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.

PubMed

Crickenberger, Sam; Wethey, David S

2018-05-10

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

In patients with minimally symptomatic OSA can baseline characteristics and early patterns of CPAP usage predict those who are likely to be longer-term users of CPAP

PubMed Central

Bratton, Daniel J.; Craig, Sonya E.; Kohler, Malcolm; Stradling, John R.

2016-01-01

Background Long-term continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) usage varies between individuals. It would be of value to be able to identify those who are likely to benefit from CPAP (and use it long term), versus those who would not, and might therefore benefit from additional help early on. First, we explored whether baseline characteristics predicted CPAP usage in minimally symptomatic obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients, a group who would be expected to have low usage. Second, we explored if early CPAP usage was predictive of longer-term usage, as has been shown in more symptomatic OSA patients. Methods The MOSAIC trial was a multi-centre randomised controlled trial where minimally symptomatic OSA patients were randomised to CPAP, or standard care, for 6 months. Here we have studied only those patients randomised to CPAP treatment. Baseline characteristics including symptoms, questionnaires [including the Epworth sleepiness score (ESS)] and sleep study parameters were recorded. CPAP usage was recorded at 2–4 weeks after initiation and after 6 months. The correlation and association between baseline characteristics and 6 months CPAP usage was assessed, as was the correlation between 2 and 4 weeks CPAP usage and 6 months CPAP usage. Results One hundred and ninety-five patients randomised to CPAP therapy had median [interquartile range (IQR)] CPAP usage of 2:49 (0:44, 5:13) h:min/night (h/n) at the 2–4 weeks visit, and 2:17 (0:08, 4:54) h/n at the 6 months follow-up visit. Only male gender was associated with increased long-term CPAP use (male usage 2:56 h/n, female 1:57 h/n; P=0.02). There was a moderate correlation between the usage of CPAP at 2–4 weeks and 6 months, with about 50% of the variability in long-term use being predicted by the short-term use. Conclusions In patients with minimally symptomatic OSA, our study has shown that male gender (and not OSA severity or symptom burden) is associated with increased long-term use of CPAP at 6 months. Although, in general, early patterns of CPAP usage predicted longer term use, there are patients in whom this is not the case, and patients with low initial usage may need to extend their CPAP trial before a decision about longer-term use is made. PMID:26904268

Distributed Learning, Recognition, and Prediction by ART and ARTMAP Neural Networks.

PubMed

Carpenter, Gail A.

1997-11-01

A class of adaptive resonance theory (ART) models for learning, recognition, and prediction with arbitrarily distributed code representations is introduced. Distributed ART neural networks combine the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multilayer perceptrons. With a winner-take-all code, the unsupervised model dART reduces to fuzzy ART and the supervised model dARTMAP reduces to fuzzy ARTMAP. With a distributed code, these networks automatically apportion learned changes according to the degree of activation of each coding node, which permits fast as well as slow learning without catastrophic forgetting. Distributed ART models replace the traditional neural network path weight with a dynamic weight equal to the rectified difference between coding node activation and an adaptive threshold. Thresholds increase monotonically during learning according to a principle of atrophy due to disuse. However, monotonic change at the synaptic level manifests itself as bidirectional change at the dynamic level, where the result of adaptation resembles long-term potentiation (LTP) for single-pulse or low frequency test inputs but can resemble long-term depression (LTD) for higher frequency test inputs. This paradoxical behavior is traced to dual computational properties of phasic and tonic coding signal components. A parallel distributed match-reset-search process also helps stabilize memory. Without the match-reset-search system, dART becomes a type of distributed competitive learning network.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burnham, A K; Weese, R K; Andrzejewski, W J

Decomposition kinetics are determined for HMX (nitramine octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine) and CP (2-(5-cyanotetrazalato) pentaammine cobalt (III) perchlorate) separately and together. For high levels of thermal stress, the two materials decompose faster as a mixture than individually. This effect is observed both in high-temperature thermal analysis experiments and in long-term thermal aging experiments. An Arrhenius plot of the 10% level of HMX decomposition by itself from a diverse set of experiments is linear from 120 to 260 C, with an apparent activation energy of 165 kJ/mol. Similar but less extensive thermal analysis data for the mixture suggests a slightly lower activation energy formore » the mixture, and an analogous extrapolation is consistent with the amount of gas observed in the long-term detonator aging experiments, which is about 30 times greater than expected from HMX by itself for 50 months at 100 C. Even with this acceleration, however, it would take {approx}10,000 years to achieve 10% decomposition at {approx}30 C. Correspondingly, negligible decomposition is predicted by this kinetic model for a few decades aging at temperatures slightly above ambient. This prediction is consistent with additional sealed-tube aging experiments at 100-120 C, which are estimated to have an effective thermal dose greater than that from decades of exposure to temperatures slightly above ambient.« less

The Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mroz, Thomas A.; Savage, Timothy H.

2006-01-01

Using NLSY data, we examine the long-term effects of youth unemployment on later labor market outcomes. Involuntary unemployment may yield suboptimal investments in human capital in the short run. A theoretical model of dynamic human capital investment predicts a rational "catch-up" response. Using semiparametric techniques to control for the…

Long-term experimental loss of foundation species: consequences for dynamics at ecotones across heterogeneous landscapes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term (> 13 years) patterns in dominance and community composition were examined following the experimental removal of one of three foundation species at an arid - semiarid biome transition zone. Objectives were to identify key processes influencing these patterns, and to predict future landscap...

Long-term effects of burn severity on non-native plant cover

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effects of burn severity on non-native plant invasion post-fire is of great concern to managers and researchers, especially given predicted increases in large, high severity fires. However, little else is known about long-term (>10 year) vegetation recovery and non-native plant persistence. We anal...

Early Predictors of High School Mathematics Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegler, Robert S.; Duncan, Greg J.; Davis-Kean, Pamela E.; Duckworth, Kathryn; Claessens, Amy; Engel, Mimi; Susperreguy, Maria Ines; Meichu, Chen

2012-01-01

Identifying the types of mathematics content knowledge that are most predictive of students' long-term learning is essential for improving both theories of mathematical development and mathematics education. To identify these types of knowledge, we examined long-term predictors of high school students' knowledge of algebra and overall mathematics…

Family Violence: Psychological Consequences and Beliefs in Asian and Asian-American Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maker, Azmaira; Heiple, Becky

This study specifically explored the relationships among childhood trauma, long-term psychological consequences, beliefs about family violence, and gender role stereotypes in Asian and Asian American women. A prediction was made that childhood physical violence and witnessing family violence would create long-term negative symptoms; higher levels…

Reduced insulin-like growth factor-I serum levels in formerly obese women subjected to laparoscopic-adjustable gastric banding or diet-induced long-term caloric restriction.

PubMed

Mitterberger, Maria C; Mattesich, Monika; Klaver, Elise; Piza-Katzer, Hildegunde; Zwerschke, Werner

2011-11-01

Life-span extension in laboratory rodents induced by long-term caloric restriction correlates with decreased serum insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) levels. Reduced activity of the growth hormone/IGF-I signaling system slows aging and increases longevity in mutant mouse models. In the present study, we show that long-term caloric restriction achieved by two different interventions for 4 years, either laparoscopic-adjustable gastric banding or reducing diet, leads to reduced IGF-I serum levels in formerly obese women relative to normal-weight women eating ad libitum. Moreover, we present evidence that the long-term caloric restriction interventions reduce fasting growth hormone serum levels. The present study indicates that the activity of the growth hormone/IGF-I axis is reduced in long-term calorically restricted formerly obese humans. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the duration and severity of the caloric restriction intervention are important for the outcome on the growth hormone/IGF-I axis in humans.

Is Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation an Effective Predictor for Invasive Occipital Nerve Stimulation Treatment Success in Fibromyalgia Patients?

PubMed

Plazier, Mark; Tchen, Stephanie; Ost, Jan; Joos, Kathleen; De Ridder, Dirk; Vanneste, Sven

2015-10-01

Fibromyalgia is a disorder distinguished by pervasive musculoskeletal pain that has pervasive effects on affected individuals magnifying the importance of finding a safe and viable treatment option. The goal of this study is to investigate if transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) treatment can predict the outcome of occipital nerve field stimulation (ONFS) via a subcutaneous electrode. Nine patients with fibromyalgia were selected fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology-90 criteria. The patients were implanted with a subcutaneous trial-lead in the C2 dermatome innervated by the occipital nerve. After the treatment phase of ONFS using a C2 implant, each patient participated in three sessions of tDCS. Stimulation outcomes for pain suppression were examined between the two methods to determine possible correlations. Positive correlation of stimulation effect was noted between the numeric rating scale changes for pain obtained by tDCS treatments and short-term measures of ONFS, but no correlation was noted between tDCS and long-term ONFS outcomes. A correlation also was noted between short-term ONS C2 implant pain suppression and long-term ONS C2 implant treatment success. This pilot study suggests that tDCS is a predictive measure for success of OFNS in short-term but cannot be used as a predictive measure for success of long-term OFNS. Our data confirm previous findings that ONFS via an implanted electrode can improve fibromyalgia pain in a placebo-controlled way and exert a long-term pain suppression effect for ONFS via an implanted electrode. © 2015 International Neuromodulation Society.

Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoas, Daniel W.

2013-01-01

Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…