Prospective memory and intraindividual variability in ongoing task response times in an adult lifespan sample: the role of cue focality.

PubMed

Ihle, Andreas; Ghisletta, Paolo; Kliegel, Matthias

2017-03-01

To contribute to the ongoing conceptual debate of what traditional mean-level ongoing task (OT) costs tell us about the attentional processes underlying prospective memory (PM), we investigated costs to intraindividual variability (IIV) in OT response times as a potentially sensitive indicator of attentional processes. Particularly, we tested whether IIV in OT responses may reflect controlled employment of attentional processes versus lapses of controlled attention, whether these processes differ across adulthood, and whether it is moderated by cue focality. We assessed 150 individuals (19-82 years) in a focal and a nonfocal PM condition. In addition, external measures of inhibition and working memory were assessed. In line with the predictions of the lapses-of-attention/inefficient-executive-control account, our data support the view that costs to IIV in OT trials of PM tasks reflect fluctuations in the efficiency of executive functioning, which was related to failures in prospective remembering, particularly in nonfocal PM tasks, potentially due to their increased executive demands. The additional value of considering costs to IIV over and beyond traditional mean-level OT costs in PM research is discussed.

Detecting ongoing intimate partner violence in the emergency department using a simple 4-question screen: the OVAT.

PubMed

Ernst, Amy A; Weiss, Steven J; Cham, Elaine; Hall, Louise; Nick, Todd G

2004-06-01

We wanted to prospectively evaluate the use of a brief screening tool for ongoing intimate partner violence (IPV), the OVAT, and to validate this tool against the present Index of Spouse Abuse (ISA). The design was a prospective survey during randomized 4-hour shifts in an urban emergency department setting. The scale consists of four questions developed based on our previous work. The ISA was compared as the gold standard for detection of present (ongoing) IPV. Of 362 eligible patients presenting during 75 randomized 4-hour shifts, 306 (85%) completed the study. The prevalence of ongoing IPV using the OVAT was 31% (95% CI 26% to 36%). For the ISA, the prevalence was 20% (95% CI 16% to 25%). Compared with the ISA, the sensitivity of the OVAT in detecting ongoing IPV was 86%, specificity 83%, negative predictive value 96%, positive predictive value 56%, with an accuracy of 84%. In conclusion, four brief questions can detect ongoing IPV to aid in identifying the victim.

Prevalence and predictors of posttraumatic stress symptoms in parents of children with ongoing treatment for cancer in South China: a multi-centered cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Shi, Lei; Gao, Yulin; Zhao, Jiubo; Cai, Ruiqing; Zhang, Ping; Hu, Yanqun; Li, Zhiying; Li, Yajie

2017-04-01

Parents of children with ongoing cancer treatment are exposed to risks of developing posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), but little is known about the prevalence and predictors of PTSS among Chinese parents of children with cancer. This study aimed to examine the predictors of PTSS, and explored the correlation of depression, resilience, and family functions with severe PTSS. This cross-sectional survey was conducted from May 2014 to September 2015 among the parents of cancer children treated in four general hospitals in South China. PTSS in the parents were measured using post-traumatic stress checklist-civilian version (PCL-C). Multiple regression analyses were performed to evaluate the predictive values of depression, resilience, family functioning, and the demographic variables for severe PTSS. A total of 279 parents (192 mothers and 87 fathers) participated in the survey. Severe PTSS, as defined by a PCL-C score ≥50, were reported in 32.97% (n = 92) of the total participants, 26.44% (23/87) in the fathers and 35.94% (69/192) in the mothers. The level of PTSS was positively correlated with depression (r = 0.782, P < 0.01) and a poor general family function (r = 0.325, P < 0.01) and negatively correlated with resilience (r = -0.236, P < 0.01). Multivariate analyses indicated that depression, general family function, gender, and education level were significant predictive factors of severe PTSS in the overall parents, accounting for 64.2% of the variance in the prediction of PTSS (R 2  = 0.642, F = 122.602, P = 0.000). For the mothers, depression and family function accounted for 66.5% of the variance in the prediction of PTSS (R 2  = 0.665, F = 187.451, P = 0.000); for the fathers, depression and educational level accounted for 58.8% of the variance in the prediction of PTSS (R 2  = 0.588, F = 59.829, P = 0.000). Parents, especially the mothers, of children with ongoing treatment for cancer are at risk of developing PTSS. Supportive psychological interventions to attenuate the negative emotions of the parents and improve their family functions are important means to promote their natural protective mechanisms to cope with the stressful events.

Predicting food challenge outcomes for baked milk: role of specific IgE and skin prick testing.

PubMed

Bartnikas, Lisa M; Sheehan, William J; Hoffman, Elaine B; Permaul, Perdita; Dioun, Anahita F; Friedlander, James; Baxi, Sachin N; Schneider, Lynda C; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2012-11-01

Cow's milk allergy is the most common food allergy in childhood. Many children with IgE-mediated cow's milk allergy may tolerate baked milk products, but few data exist on predictors of outcomes of baked milk challenges. To determine the relation of milk protein allergen specific IgE (sIgE) levels and skin prick test (SPT) wheal size with baked milk challenge outcomes. A retrospective medical record review was conducted of 35 baked milk challenges. SPT results, sIgE levels, demographic characteristics, and food challenge results were analyzed. Thirty-five children underwent open challenges to baked milk and 29 (83%) passed. Of those who failed, 3 (50%) passed the initial clinic challenge but developed symptoms to ongoing exposure at home, days to months later. One child who ultimately failed at home required epinephrine. Compared with those who passed, children who failed were younger (median age, 8.9 and 3.7 years, respectively; P = .02). Children with a milk SPT wheal less than 12 mm were more than 90% likely to pass a baked milk challenge, and no child with a milk SPT wheal less than 7 mm failed a baked milk challenge. We were also able to establish more than 90% predictive values for passing baked milk challenges with a casein SPT wheal of 9 mm, a milk sIgE level of 1.0 kU/L, and a casein sIgE level of 0.9 kU/L. Most children allergic to cow's milk tolerated baked milk. Milk protein SPT wheal may be more reliable than sIgE level in predicting outcomes of baked milk challenges. It is important to be aware of the possibility of late reactions to ongoing baked milk exposure. Copyright © 2012 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GI-POP: a combinational annotation and genomic island prediction pipeline for ongoing microbial genome projects.

PubMed

Lee, Chi-Ching; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe; Yao, Tzu-Jung; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Lo, Wei-Cheng; Lyu, Ping-Chiang; Tang, Chuan Yi

2013-04-10

Sequencing of microbial genomes is important because of microbial-carrying antibiotic and pathogenetic activities. However, even with the help of new assembling software, finishing a whole genome is a time-consuming task. In most bacteria, pathogenetic or antibiotic genes are carried in genomic islands. Therefore, a quick genomic island (GI) prediction method is useful for ongoing sequencing genomes. In this work, we built a Web server called GI-POP (http://gipop.life.nthu.edu.tw) which integrates a sequence assembling tool, a functional annotation pipeline, and a high-performance GI predicting module, in a support vector machine (SVM)-based method called genomic island genomic profile scanning (GI-GPS). The draft genomes of the ongoing genome projects in contigs or scaffolds can be submitted to our Web server, and it provides the functional annotation and highly probable GI-predicting results. GI-POP is a comprehensive annotation Web server designed for ongoing genome project analysis. Researchers can perform annotation and obtain pre-analytic information include possible GIs, coding/non-coding sequences and functional analysis from their draft genomes. This pre-analytic system can provide useful information for finishing a genome sequencing project. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Academic Momentum at University/College: Exploring the Roles of Prior Learning, Life Experience, and Ongoing Performance in Academic Achievement across Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Andrew J.; Wilson, Rachel; Liem, Gregory Arief D.; Ginns, Paul

2014-01-01

In the context of "academic momentum," a longitudinal study of university students (N = 904) showed high school achievement and ongoing university achievement predicted subsequent achievement through university. However, the impact of high school achievement diminished, while additive effects of ongoing university achievement continued.…

What Costs Do Reveal and Moving beyond the Cost Debate: Reply to Einstein and McDaniel (2010)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.

2010-01-01

Einstein et al. (2005) predicted no cost to an ongoing task when a prospective memory task met certain criteria. Smith, Hunt, McVay, and McConnell (2007) used prospective memory tasks that met these criteria and found a cost to the ongoing task, contrary to Einstein et al.'s prediction. Einstein and McDaniel (2010) correctly noted that there are…

Anti-Müllerian hormone concentrations and antral follicle counts for the prediction of pregnancy outcomes after intrauterine insemination.

PubMed

Moro, Francesca; Tropea, Anna; Scarinci, Elisa; Leoncini, Emanuele; Boccia, Stefania; Federico, Alex; Alesiani, Ornella; Lanzone, Antonio; Apa, Rosanna

2016-04-01

To evaluate anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentrations and antral follicle counts (AFCs) in the prediction of pregnancy outcomes after controlled ovarian stimulation among women undergoing intrauterine insemination. A retrospective study included women with unexplained infertility aged 41years or younger who attended a fertility clinic in Italy between December 2009 and May 2014. Ovarian stimulation was achieved with recombinant follicle-stimulating hormone or highly purified human menopausal gonadotropin. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to predict ongoing pregnancy. The primary outcome was the association between AMH/AFC and ongoing pregnancy, and was assessed by logistic regression. Overall, 276 women were included, of whom 43 (15.6%) achieved ongoing pregnancy. Multivariate analysis showed that women with a serum day-3 concentration of AMH higher than 2.3ng/mL were more likely to have ongoing pregnancy than were those with a concentration lower than 2.3ng/mL (odds ratio 5.84, 95% confidence interval 2.38-14.31; P<0.001). No associations were recorded for AFCs. AMH should be used to predict the pregnancy outcome of intrauterine insemination. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow

PubMed Central

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-01-01

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5′-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change. PMID:28361883

Pre-Assault Personality Predicts the Nature of Adverse Outcomes Among Sexual Assault Victims.

PubMed

Combs, Jessica L; Riley, Elizabeth N; Peterson, Sarah J; Jordan, Carol E; Smith, Gregory T

2018-03-01

Exposure to sexual assault results in ongoing harms for women. After an assault, some women engage in higher levels of externalizing behaviors, such as problem drinking, and others experience higher levels of internalizing dysfunction, such as symptoms of anxiety and depression. We sought to understand the role of premorbid factors on the different post-assault experiences of women. We studied 1,929 women prospectively during a period of high risk for sexual assault (the first year of college): women were assessed in July before arriving at college and in April near the end of the school year. A premorbid personality disposition to act impulsively when distressed (negative urgency) interacted positively with sexual assault experience to predict subsequent increases in drinking behavior; a premorbid personality disposition toward internalizing dysfunction positively interacted with sexual assault experience to predict increased symptoms of anxiety and depression. Women with different personalities tend to experience different forms of post-assault consequences.

Migration phenology and breeding success are predicted by methylation of a photoperiodic gene in the barn swallow.

PubMed

Saino, Nicola; Ambrosini, Roberto; Albetti, Benedetta; Caprioli, Manuela; De Giorgio, Barbara; Gatti, Emanuele; Liechti, Felix; Parolini, Marco; Romano, Andrea; Romano, Maria; Scandolara, Chiara; Gianfranceschi, Luca; Bollati, Valentina; Rubolini, Diego

2017-03-31

Individuals often considerably differ in the timing of their life-cycle events, with major consequences for individual fitness, and, ultimately, for population dynamics. Phenological variation can arise from genetic effects but also from epigenetic modifications in DNA expression and translation. Here, we tested if CpG methylation at the poly-Q and 5'-UTR loci of the photoperiodic Clock gene predicted migration and breeding phenology of long-distance migratory barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that were tracked year-round using light-level geolocators. Increasing methylation at Clock poly-Q was associated with earlier spring departure from the African wintering area, arrival date at the European breeding site, and breeding date. Higher methylation levels also predicted increased breeding success. Thus, we showed for the first time in any species that CpG methylation at a candidate gene may affect phenology and breeding performance. Methylation at Clock may be a candidate mechanism mediating phenological responses of migratory birds to ongoing climate change.

Chesapeake Bay Forecast System: Oxygen Prediction for the Sustainable Ecosystem Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathukumalli, B.; Long, W.; Zhang, X.; Wood, R.; Murtugudde, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay Forecast System (CBFS) is a flexible, end-to-end expert prediction tool for decision makers that will provide customizable, user-specified predictions and projections of the region’s climate, air and water quality, local chemistry, and ecosystems at days to decades. As a part of CBFS, the long-term water quality data were collected and assembled to develop ecological models for the sustainable management of the Chesapeake Bay. Cultural eutrophication depletes oxygen levels in this ecosystem particularly in summer which has several negative implications on the structure and function of ecosystem. In order to understand dynamics and prediction of spatially-explicit oxygen levels in the Bay, an empirical process based ecological model is developed with long-term control variables (water temperature, salinity, nitrogen and phosphorus). Statistical validation methods were employed to demonstrate usability of predictions for management purposes and the predicted oxygen levels are quite faithful to observations. The predicted oxygen values and other physical outputs from downscaling of regional weather and climate predictions, or forecasts from hydrodynamic models can be used to forecast various ecological components. Such forecasts would be useful for both recreational and commercial users of the bay (for example, bass fishing). Furthermore, this work can also be used to predict extent of hypoxia/anoxia not only from anthropogenic nutrient pollution, but also from global warming. Some hindcasts and forecasts are discussed along with the ongoing efforts at a mechanistic ecosystem model to provide prognostic oxygen predictions and projections and upper trophic modeling using an energetics approach.

Attachment as an organizer of behavior: implications for substance abuse problems and willingness to seek treatment

PubMed Central

Caspers, Kristin M; Yucuis, Rebecca; Troutman, Beth; Spinks, Ruth

2006-01-01

Background Attachment theory allows specific predictions about the role of attachment representations in organizing behavior. Insecure attachment is hypothesized to predict maladaptive emotional regulation whereas secure attachment is hypothesized to predict adaptive emotional regulation. In this paper, we test specific hypotheses about the role of attachment representations in substance abuse/dependence and treatment participation. Based on theory, we expect divergence between levels of maladaptive functioning and adaptive methods of regulating negative emotions. Methods Participants for this study consist of a sample of adoptees participating in an ongoing longitudinal adoption study (n = 208). The Semi-Structured Assessment of the Genetics of Alcohol-II [41] was used to determine lifetime substance abuse/dependence and treatment participation. Attachment representations were derived by the Adult Attachment Interview [AAI; [16

BPP: a sequence-based algorithm for branch point prediction.

PubMed

Zhang, Qing; Fan, Xiaodan; Wang, Yejun; Sun, Ming-An; Shao, Jianlin; Guo, Dianjing

2017-10-15

Although high-throughput sequencing methods have been proposed to identify splicing branch points in the human genome, these methods can only detect a small fraction of the branch points subject to the sequencing depth, experimental cost and the expression level of the mRNA. An accurate computational model for branch point prediction is therefore an ongoing objective in human genome research. We here propose a novel branch point prediction algorithm that utilizes information on the branch point sequence and the polypyrimidine tract. Using experimentally validated data, we demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms existing methods. Availability and implementation: https://github.com/zhqingit/BPP. djguo@cuhk.edu.hk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

The development of an acute care case manager orientation.

PubMed

Strzelecki, S; Brobst, R

1997-01-01

The authors describe the development of an inpatient acute care case manager orientation in a community hospital. Benner's application of the Dreyfus model of skill acquisition provides the basis for the orientation program. The candidates for the case manager position were expert clinicians. Because of the role change it was projected that they would function as advanced beginners. It was also predicted that, as the case managers progressed within the role, the educational process would need to be adapted to facilitate progression of skills to the proficient level. Feedback from participants reinforced that the model supported the case manager in the role transition. In addition, the model provided a predictive framework for ongoing educational activities.

Chemical composition analysis and product consistency tests supporting refinement of the Nepheline Model for the high aluminum Hanford glass composition region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, K. M.; Edwards, T. B.; Mcclane, D. L.

2016-03-01

In this report, Savannah River National Laboratory provides chemical analyses and Product Consistency Test (PCT) results for a series of simulated high level waste (HLW) glasses fabricated by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) as part of an ongoing nepheline crystallization study. The results of these analyses will be used to improve the ability to predict crystallization of nepheline as a function of composition and heat treatment for glasses formulated at high alumina concentrations.

Development of a Jet Noise Prediction Method for Installed Jet Configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Craig A.; Thomas, Russell H.

2003-01-01

This paper describes development of the Jet3D noise prediction method and its application to heated jets with complex three-dimensional flow fields and installation effects. Noise predictions were made for four separate flow bypass ratio five nozzle configurations tested in the NASA Langley Jet Noise Laboratory. These configurations consist of a round core and fan nozzle with and without pylon, and an eight chevron core nozzle and round fan nozzle with and without pylon. Predicted SPL data were in good agreement with experimental noise measurements up to 121 inlet angle, beyond which Jet3D under predicted low frequency levels. This is due to inherent limitations in the formulation of Lighthill's Acoustic Analogy used in Jet3D, and will be corrected in ongoing development. Jet3D did an excellent job predicting full scale EPNL for nonchevron configurations, and captured the effect of the pylon, correctly predicting a reduction in EPNL. EPNL predictions for chevron configurations were not in good agreement with measured data, likely due to the lower mixing and longer potential cores in the CFD simulations of these cases.

Arsenic and lead distribution and mobility in lake sediments in the south-central Puget Sound watershed: the long-term impact of a metal smelter in Ruston, Washington, USA.

PubMed

Gawel, James E; Asplund, Jessica A; Burdick, Sarah; Miller, Michelle; Peterson, Shawna M; Tollefson, Amanda; Ziegler, Kara

2014-02-15

The American Smelting and Refining Company (ASARCO) smelter in Ruston, Washington, contaminated the south-central Puget Sound region with heavy metals, including arsenic and lead. Arsenic and lead distribution in surface sediments of 26 lakes is significantly correlated with atmospheric model predictions of contaminant deposition spatially, with concentrations reaching 208 mg/kg As and 1,375 mg/kg Pb. The temporal distribution of these metals in sediment cores is consistent with the years of operation of the ASARCO smelter. In several lakes arsenic and lead levels are highest at the surface, suggesting ongoing inputs or redistribution of contaminants. Moreover, this study finds that arsenic is highly mobile in these urban lakes, with maximum dissolved arsenic concentrations proportional to surface sediment levels and reaching almost 90 μg/L As. With 83% of the lakes in the deposition zone having surface sediments exceeding published "probable effects concentrations" for arsenic and lead, this study provides evidence for possible ongoing environmental health concerns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Roles of System and Organizational Leadership in System-Wide Evidence-Based Intervention Sustainment: A Mixed-Method Study.

PubMed

Aarons, Gregory A; Green, Amy E; Trott, Elise; Willging, Cathleen E; Torres, Elisa M; Ehrhart, Mark G; Roesch, Scott C

2016-11-01

If evidence-based interventions (EBIs) are not sustained, investments are wasted and public health impact is limited. Leadership has been suggested as a key determinant of implementation and sustainment; however, little empirical work has examined this factor. This mixed-methods study framed using the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, Sustainment (EPIS) conceptual framework examines leadership in both the outer service system context and inner organizational context in eleven system-wide implementations of the same EBI across two U.S. states and 87 counties. Quantitative data at the outer context (i.e., system) and inner context (i.e., team) levels demonstrated that leadership predicted future sustainment and differentiated between sites with full, partial, or no sustainment. In the outer context positive sustainment leadership was characterized as establishing a project's mission and vision, early and continued planning for sustainment, realistic project plans, and having alternative strategies for project survival. Inner context frontline transformational leadership predicted sustainment while passive-avoidant leadership predicted non-sustainment. Qualitative results found that sustainment was associated with outer context leadership characterized by engagement in ongoing supportive EBI championing, marketing to stakeholders; persevering in these activities; taking action to institutionalize the EBI with funding, contracting, and system improvement plans; and fostering ongoing collaboration between stakeholders at state and county, and community stakeholder levels. For frontline leadership the most important activities included championing the EBI and providing practical support for service providers. There was both convergence and expansion that identified unique contributions of the quantitative and qualitative methods. Greater attention to leadership in both the outer system and inner organizational contexts is warranted to enhance EBI implementation and sustainment.

The Roles of System and Organizational Leadership in System-Wide Evidence-Based Intervention Sustainment: A Mixed-Method Study

PubMed Central

Aarons, Gregory A.; Green, Amy E.; Trott, Elise; Willging, Cathleen E.; Torres, Elisa M.; Ehrhart, Mark G.; Roesch, Scott C.

2017-01-01

If evidence-based interventions (EBIs) are not sustained, investments are wasted and public health impact is limited. Leadership has been suggested as a key determinant of implementation and sustainment; however, little empirical work has examined this factor. This mixed-methods study framed using the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, Sustainment (EPIS) conceptual framework examines leadership in both the outer service system context and inner organizational context in eleven system-wide implementations of the same EBI across two U.S. states and 87 counties. Quantitative data at the outer context (i.e., system) and inner context (i.e., team) levels demonstrated that leadership predicted future sustainment and differentiated between sites with full, partial, or no sustainment. In the outer context positive sustainment leadership was characterized as establishing a project’s mission and vision, early and continued planning for sustainment, realistic project plans, and having alternative strategies for project survival. Inner context frontline transformational leadership predicted sustainment while passive-avoidant leadership predicted non-sustainment. Qualitative results found that sustainment was associated with outer context leadership characterized by engagement in ongoing supportive EBI championing, marketing to stakeholders; persevering in these activities; taking action to institutionalize the EBI with funding, contracting, and system improvement plans; and fostering ongoing collaboration between stakeholders at state and county, and community stakeholder levels. For frontline leadership the most important activities included championing the EBI and providing practical support for service providers. There was both convergence and expansion that identified unique contributions of the quantitative and qualitative methods. Greater attention to leadership in both the outer system and inner organizational contexts is warranted to enhance EBI implementation and sustainment. PMID:27439504

Predictors of Outcome in Brief Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Brabban, Alison; Tai, Sara; Turkington, Douglas

2009-01-01

Antipsychotic medications, while effective, often leave patients with ongoing positive and negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Guidelines recommend using cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) with this group. Clearly, mental health professionals require training and supervision to deliver CBT-based interventions. This study tested which antipsychotic-resistant patients were most likely to respond to brief CBT delivered by psychiatric nurses. Staff were trained over 10 consecutive days with ongoing weekly supervision. Training for carers in the basic principles of CBT was also provided. This article represents the secondary analyses of completer data from a previously published randomized controlled trial (Turkington D, Kingdon D, Turner T. Effectiveness of a brief cognitive-behavioural therapy intervention in the treatment of schizophrenia. Br J Psychiatry. 2002;180:523–527) (n = 354) to determine whether a number of a priori variables were predictive of a good outcome with CBT and treatment as usual. Logistic regression was employed to determine whether any of these variables were able to predict a 25% or greater improvement in overall symptoms and insight. In the CBT group only, female gender was found to strongly predict a reduction in overall symptoms (P = .004, odds ratio [OR] = 2.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.33, 4.30) and increase in insight (P = .04, OR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.03, 3.29). In addition, for individuals with delusions, a lower level of conviction in these beliefs was associated with a good response to brief CBT (P = .02, OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.51, 0.95). Women with schizophrenia and patients with a low level of conviction in their delusions are most likely to respond to brief CBT and should be offered this routinely alongside antipsychotic medications and other psychosocial interventions. PMID:19571248

What Costs Do Reveal and Moving Beyond the Cost Debate: Reply to Einstein and McDaniel (in press)

PubMed Central

Smith, Rebekah E.

2010-01-01

Einstein et al., (2005) predicted no cost to an ongoing task when a prospective memory task meet certain criteria. Smith et al. (2007) used prospective memory tasks that met these criteria and found a cost to the ongoing task, contrary to Einstein et al.'s prediction. Einstein and McDaniel (in press) correctly note that there are limitations to using ongoing task performance as a measure of the processes that contribute to prospective memory performance, however, the alternatives suggested by Einstein and McDaniel all focus on ongoing task performance and therefore do not move beyond the cost debate. This article describes why the Smith et al. findings are important, provides recommendations for issues to consider when investigating cost, and discusses individual cost measures. Finally, noting the blurry distinction between Einstein and McDaniel's description of the reflexive associative processes and preparatory attentional processes and difficulties in extending the multiprocess view to nonlaboratory tasks, suggestions are made for moving beyond the cost debate. PMID:20852726

Predictors of initial levels and trajectories of anxiety in women before and for 6 months after breast cancer surgery.

PubMed

Kyranou, Marianna; Puntillo, Kathleen; Dunn, Laura B; Aouizerat, Bradley E; Paul, Steven M; Cooper, Bruce A; Neuhaus, John; West, Claudia; Dodd, Marylin; Miaskowski, Christine

2014-01-01

The diagnosis of breast cancer, in combination with the anticipation of surgery, evokes fear, uncertainty, and anxiety in most women. Study purposes were to examine in patients who underwent breast cancer surgery how ratings of state anxiety changed from the time of the preoperative assessment to 6 months after surgery and to investigate whether specific demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics predicted the preoperative levels of state anxiety and/or characteristics of the trajectories of state anxiety. Patients (n = 396) were enrolled preoperatively and completed the Spielberger State Anxiety inventory monthly for 6 months. Using hierarchical linear modeling, demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of initial levels and trajectories of state anxiety. Patients experienced moderate levels of anxiety before surgery. Higher levels of depressive symptoms and uncertainty about the future, as well as lower levels of life satisfaction, less sense of control, and greater difficulty coping, predicted higher preoperative levels of state anxiety. Higher preoperative state anxiety, poorer physical health, decreased sense of control, and more feelings of isolation predicted higher state anxiety scores over time. Moderate levels of anxiety persist in women for 6 months after breast cancer surgery. Clinicians need to implement systematic assessments of anxiety to identify high-risk women who warrant more targeted interventions. In addition, ongoing follow-up is needed to prevent adverse postoperative outcomes and to support women to return to their preoperative levels of function.

Rapid ongoing decline of Baird's tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras.

PubMed

McCANN, Niall P; Wheeler, Phil M; Coles, Tim; Bruford, Michael W

2012-12-01

During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011, the conservation of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Director of the Honduran Institute of Conservation and Forestry (ICF) and the Tapir Specialist Group (TSG). Despite this agreement, accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss continue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in Honduras. An ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy data. The study has identified an increase in hunting pressure, coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir spoor. Here, we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cusuco National Park using the software PRESENCE, and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the future dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX. The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy levels. We found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time frame, but that various intervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying capacity. Occupancy and extinction probability were shown to respond markedly to the increase in hunting pressure; and occupancy models supported the future population predictions generated by VORTEX. Our study suggests that immediate intervention is required to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent local extinction of the species. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Environmental effects on composites for aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pride, R. A.

1978-01-01

A number of ongoing, long-term environmental effects programs for composite materials are evaluated. The flight service experience was evaluated for 142 composite aircraft components after more than 5 years and 1 million successful component flight hours. Ground-based outdoor exposures of composite material coupons after 3 years of exposure at 5 sites have reached equilibrium levels of moisture pickup which are predictable. Solar ultraviolet-induced material loss is discussed for these same exposures. No significant degradation was observed in residual strength for either stressed or unstressed specimens, or for exposures to aviation fuels and fluids.

Advances in the assessment and prediction of interpersonal violence.

PubMed

Mills, Jeremy F

2005-02-01

This article underscores the weakness of clinical judgment as a mechanism for prediction with examples from other areas in the psychological literature. Clinical judgment has as its Achilles'heel the reliance on a person to incorporate multiple pieces of information while overcoming human judgment errors--a feat insurmountable thus far. The actuarial approach to risk assessment has overcome many of the weaknesses of clinical judgment and has been shown to be a much superior method. Nonetheless, the static/historical nature of the risk factors associated with most actuarial approaches is limiting. Advances in risk prediction will be found in part in the development of dynamic actuarial instruments that will measure both static/historical and changeable risk factors. The dynamic risk factors can be reevaluated on an ongoing basis, and it is proposed that the level of change in dynamic factors necessary to represent a significant change in overall risk will be an interactive function with static risk factors.

Reconstructing disturbances and their biogeochemical consequences over multiple timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Higuera, Philip E.; Gavin, Daniel G.; Perakis, Steven S.; Mack, Michelle C.; Alexander, Heather; Battles, John; Biondi, Franco; Buma, Brian; Colombaroli, Daniele; Enders, Sara K.; Engstrom, Daniel R.; Hu, Feng Sheng; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Marshall, John; McGlone, Matt; Morris, Jesse L.; Nave, Lucas E.; Shuman, Bryan; Smithwick, Erica A.H.; Urrego, Dunia H.; Wardle, David A.; Williams, Christopher J.; Williams, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

Ongoing changes in disturbance regimes are predicted to cause acute changes in ecosystem structure and function in the coming decades, but many aspects of these predictions are uncertain. A key challenge is to improve the predictability of postdisturbance biogeochemical trajectories at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem ecologists and paleoecologists have generated complementary data sets about disturbance (type, severity, frequency) and ecosystem response (net primary productivity, nutrient cycling) spanning decadal to millennial timescales. Here, we take the first steps toward a full integration of these data sets by reviewing how disturbances are reconstructed using dendrochronological and sedimentary archives and by summarizing the conceptual frameworks for carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic responses to disturbances. Key research priorities include further development of paleoecological techniques that reconstruct both disturbances and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. In addition, mechanistic detail from disturbance experiments, long-term observations, and chronosequences can help increase the understanding of ecosystem resilience.

Predictors of Initial Levels and Trajectories of Anxiety in Women Prior to and For Six Months Following Breast Cancer Surgery

PubMed Central

Kyranou, Marianna; Puntillo, Kathleen; Dunn, Laura B.; Aouizerat, Bradley E.; Paul, Steven M.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Neuhaus, John; West, Claudia; Dodd, Marylin; Miaskowski, Christine

2014-01-01

Background The diagnosis of breast cancer in combination with the anticipation of surgery evokes fear, uncertainty, and anxiety in most women. Objective In patients who underwent breast cancer surgery, study purposes were to examine how ratings of state anxiety changed from the time of the preoperative assessment to 6 months after surgery and to investigate whether specific demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics predicted the preoperative levels of state anxiety and/or characteristics of the trajectories of state anxiety. Interventions/Methods Patients (n=396) were enrolled preoperatively and completed the Spielberger State Anxiety inventory monthly for six months. Using hierarchical linear modeling, demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of initial levels and trajectories of state anxiety. Results Patients experienced moderate levels of anxiety prior to surgery. Higher levels of depressive symptoms and uncertainty about the future, as well as lower levels of life satisfaction, less sense of control, and greater difficulty coping predicted higher preoperative levels of state anxiety. Higher preoperative state anxiety, poorer physical health, decreased sense of control, and more feelings of isolation predicted higher state anxiety scores over time. Conclusions Moderate levels of anxiety persist in women for six months following breast cancer surgery. Implications for Practice Clinicians need to implement systematic assessments of anxiety to identify high risk women who warrant more targeted interventions. In addition, ongoing follow-up is needed in order to prevent adverse postoperative outcomes and to support women to return to their preoperative levels of function. PMID:24633334

Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies.

PubMed

Peters, Susan; Vermeulen, Roel; Portengen, Lützen; Olsson, Ann; Kendzia, Benjamin; Vincent, Raymond; Savary, Barbara; Lavoué, Jérôme; Cavallo, Domenico; Cattaneo, Andrea; Mirabelli, Dario; Plato, Nils; Fevotte, Joelle; Pesch, Beate; Brüning, Thomas; Straif, Kurt; Kromhout, Hans

2011-11-01

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.

Using the Inflection Points and Rates of Growth and Decay to Predict Levels of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

The ascending and descending inflection points and rates of growth and decay at specific times during the sunspot cycle are examined as predictors for future activity. On average, the ascending inflection point occurs about 1-2 yr after sunspot minimum amplitude (Rm) and the descending inflection point occurs about 6-7 yr after Rm. The ascending inflection point and the inferred slope (including the 12-mo moving average (12-mma) of (Delta)R (the month-to-month change in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number (R)) at the ascending inflection point provide strong indications as to the expected size of the ongoing cycle s sunspot maximum amplitude (RM), while the descending inflection point appears to provide an indication as to the expected length of the ongoing cycle. The value of the 12-mma of (Delta)R at elapsed time T = 27 mo past the epoch of RM (E(RM)) seems to provide a strong indication as to the expected size of Rm for the following cycle. The expected Rm for cycle 24 is 7.6 +/- 4.4 (the 90-percent prediction interval), occurring before September 2008. Evidence is also presented for secular rises in selected cycle-related parameters and for preferential grouping of sunspot cycles by amplitude and/or period.

Computational AeroAcoustics for Fan Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Ed; Hixon, Ray; Dyson, Rodger; Huff, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

An overview of the current state-of-the-art in computational aeroacoustics as applied to fan noise prediction at NASA Glenn is presented. Results from recent modeling efforts using three dimensional inviscid formulations in both frequency and time domains are summarized. In particular, the application of a frequency domain method, called LINFLUX, to the computation of rotor-stator interaction tone noise is reviewed and the influence of the background inviscid flow on the acoustic results is analyzed. It has been shown that the noise levels are very sensitive to the gradients of the mean flow near the surface and that the correct computation of these gradients for highly loaded airfoils is especially problematic using an inviscid formulation. The ongoing development of a finite difference time marching code that is based on a sixth order compact scheme is also reviewed. Preliminary results from the nonlinear computation of a gust-airfoil interaction model problem demonstrate the fidelity and accuracy of this approach. Spatial and temporal features of the code as well as its multi-block nature are discussed. Finally, latest results from an ongoing effort in the area of arbitrarily high order methods are reviewed and technical challenges associated with implementing correct high order boundary conditions are discussed and possible strategies for addressing these challenges ore outlined.

Self-administered multi-level pregnancy tests in simplified follow-up of medical abortion in Tunisia.

PubMed

Dabash, Rasha; Shochet, Tara; Hajri, Selma; Chelli, Héla; Hassairi, Anne-Emmanuele; Haleb, Douha; Labassi, Hayet; Sfar, Ezzedine; Temimi, Fatma; Koenig, Leah; Winikoff, Beverly

2016-07-30

This study was conducted to assess the efficacy and acceptability of using a multi-level pregnancy test (MLPT) combined with telephone follow-up for medical abortion in Tunisia, where the majority of providers are midwives. Four hundred and four women with gestational age ≤ 70 days' LMP seeking medical abortion at six study sites were enrolled in this open-label trial. Participants administered a baseline MLPT at the clinic prior to mifepristone administration and were asked to take a second MLPT at home and to call in its results before returning the day of their scheduled follow-up visit 10-14 days later. Almost all women with follow-up (97.1 %, n = 332/342) had successful abortions without the need for surgical intervention. The MLPT worked extremely well among women ≤63 days' LMP in ruling out ongoing pregnancy (negative predictive value (NPV) =100 % (n = 298/298)) and also detecting women with ongoing pregnancies (sensitivity = 100 %; 2/2) as needing follow-up due to non-declining hCG. Among women 64-70 days' LMP, the test also worked well in ruling out ongoing pregnancy (NPV = 96.9 % (n = 31/32) but not as well in terms of sensitivity (50 %), with only one of two ongoing pregnancies detected by MLPT as needing follow-up. Most women (95.1 %) found the MLPT to be very easy or easy to use and would consider using the MLPT again (97.4 %) if needed. Self-administered pre and post MLPT are very easy for women to use and accurate in assessing medical abortion success up to 63 days' LMP. MLPT use for medical abortion follow-up has the potential to facilitate task sharing services and eliminate the burden of routine in-person follow-up visits for the large majority of women. Additional research is warranted to explore the accuracy of the MLPT in identifying ongoing pregnancy among women with gestational ages > 63 days. This study was registered on May 13, 2010, on clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01150279 .

Ocular morbidities of juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis in adulthood: results from a tertiary center study.

PubMed

Oray, Merih; Khachatryan, Naira; Ebrahimiadib, Nazanin; Abu Samra, Khawla; Lee, Stacey; Foster, C Stephen

2016-09-01

To describe the clinical and visual outcomes of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA)-associated uveitis in adults and to examine risk factors for ongoing inflammation in adulthood. Medical records were reviewed for patients with JIA-associated uveitis who were >16 years old at the final visit (the last visit prior to data collection). In total, 135 eyes of 77 patients (70 female, 7 male) were included. The mean age of patients at the final visit was 29.72 ± 11.27 years. The number of eyes with visual acuity of ≤20/50 and ≤20/200 at the final visit was 37 (28 %) and 20 (15 %), respectively; at least one ocular complication was present in 72 % of eyes. Band keratopathy was the most frequent complication (42 %), followed by cataract (25 %), posterior synechiae (22 %), maculopathy (22 %), ocular hypertension (13 %), and hypotony (5 %). At the final visit, patients who were >16 years of age at presentation to the Massachusetts Eye Research and Surgery Institution had more ocular complications and a greater degree of vision loss than patients who were ≤16 years of age. Ongoing inflammation at the final visit was noted in 40 patients (52 %). The presence of posterior synechiae, hypotony, cataract at presentation, and a history of cataract surgery prior to presentation were predictive of ongoing inflammation in adulthood in univariate analysis. The presence of hypotony and posterior synechiae at the initial visit were predictive factors in multivariate analysis. JIA-associated uveitis may be associated with ongoing inflammation, ocular complications, and severe visual impairment in adulthood. The presence of posterior synechiae and hypotony at the initial visit is predictive of ongoing inflammation.

Ongoing Voluntary Settlement and Independent Agency: Evidence from China

PubMed Central

Feng, Jing; Ren, Xiaopeng; Ma, Xinran

2017-01-01

Voluntary frontier settlement leads to independent agency. Since this type of research has not yet been implemented in ongoing voluntary settlement frontiers, we conducted several cultural tasks to investigate Shenzhen, known as China’s ongoing “South Frontier,” which is composed mostly of people that have emigrated from other Chinese provinces within the past 30 years. We hypothesized that residents of Shenzhen are more independent than those in other regions of Mainland China. As predicted, residents of Shenzhen scored higher than China inland residents in self-reported independent beliefs and scored lower in nepotism. The results indicate that, even in a short-term ongoing frontier, voluntary settlement is associated with independent agency. PMID:28798712

Effects of ongoing task context and target typicality on prospective memory performance: the importance of associative cueing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowinski, Jessica Lang; Dismukes, Key R.

2005-01-01

Two experiments examined whether prospective memory performance is influenced by contextual cues. In our automatic activation model, any information available at encoding and retrieval should aid recall of the prospective task. The first experiment demonstrated an effect of the ongoing task context; performance was better when information about the ongoing task present at retrieval was available at encoding. Performance was also improved by a strong association between the prospective memory target as it was presented at retrieval and the intention as it was encoded. Experiment 2 demonstrated boundary conditions of the ongoing task context effect, which implicate the association between the ongoing and prospective tasks formed at encoding as the source of the context effect. The results of this study are consistent with predictions based on automatic activation of intentions.

Ongoing activity in temporally coherent networks predicts intra-subject fluctuation of response time to sporadic executive control demands.

PubMed

Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Ihara, Mizuki; Kotozaki, Yuka; Miyauchi, Carlos Makoto; Kanno, Akitake; Kawashima, Ryuta

2014-01-01

Can ongoing fMRI BOLD signals predict fluctuations in swiftness of a person's response to sporadic cognitive demands? This is an important issue because it clarifies whether intrinsic brain dynamics, for which spatio-temporal patterns are expressed as temporally coherent networks (TCNs), have effects not only on sensory or motor processes, but also on cognitive processes. Predictivity has been affirmed, although to a limited extent. Expecting a predictive effect on executive performance for a wider range of TCNs constituting the cingulo-opercular, fronto-parietal, and default mode networks, we conducted an fMRI study using a version of the color-word Stroop task that was specifically designed to put a higher load on executive control, with the aim of making its fluctuations more detectable. We explored the relationships between the fluctuations in ongoing pre-trial activity in TCNs and the task response time (RT). The results revealed the existence of TCNs in which fluctuations in activity several seconds before the onset of the trial predicted RT fluctuations for the subsequent trial. These TCNs were distributed in the cingulo-opercular and fronto-parietal networks, as well as in perceptual and motor networks. Our results suggest that intrinsic brain dynamics in these networks constitute "cognitive readiness," which plays an active role especially in situations where information for anticipatory attention control is unavailable. Fluctuations in these networks lead to fluctuations in executive control performance.

The impact of water loading on postglacial decay times in Hudson Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Holly Kyeore; Gomez, Natalya

2018-05-01

Ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to surface loading (ice and water) variations during the last glacial cycle has been contributing to sea-level changes globally throughout the Holocene, especially in regions like Canada that were heavily glaciated during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The spatial and temporal distribution of GIA, as manifested in relative sea-level (RSL) change, are sensitive to the ice history and the rheological structure of the solid Earth, both of which are uncertain. It has been shown that RSL curves near the center of previously glaciated regions with no ongoing surface loading follow an exponential-like form, with the postglacial decay times associated with that form having a weak sensitivity to the details of the ice loading history. Postglacial decay time estimates thus provide a powerful datum for constraining the Earth's viscous structure and improving GIA predictions. We explore spatial patterns of postglacial decay time predictions in Hudson Bay by decomposing numerically modeled RSL changes into contributions from water and ice loading effects, and computing their relative impact on the decay times. We demonstrate that ice loading can contribute a strong geographic trend on the decay time estimates if the time window used to compute decay times includes periods that are temporally close to (i.e. contemporaneous with, or soon after) periods of active loading. This variability can be avoided by choosing a suitable starting point for the decay time window. However, more surprisingly, we show that across any adopted time window, water loading effects associated with inundation into, and postglacial flux out of, Hudson Bay and James Bay will impart significant geographic variability onto decay time estimates. We emphasize this issue by considering both maps of predicted decay times across the region and site-specific estimates, and we conclude that variability in observed decay times (whether based on existing or future data sets) may reflect this water loading signal.

Here today but not gone tomorrow: incivility affects after-work and next-day recovery.

PubMed

Nicholson, Tahnee; Griffin, Barbara

2015-04-01

This study examined the relation between daily incivility and afterwork recovery, hypothesizing that workplace incivility would have a negative effect on situational wellbeing, afterwork recovery experiences (psychological detachment and relaxation) and next-morning recovery level. Daily surveys were completed on 5 consecutive workdays by 175 employees in the legal industry. Multilevel analyses controlling for the daily number of hours worked showed that day-level incivility was negatively related to afterwork situational wellbeing and psychological detachment, but not to relaxation. Incivility experienced on 1 day also predicted recovery level the following morning. Results emphasize the ongoing impact of rudeness and disrespect in the workplace on employee wellbeing and offer an explanation for the long-term negative outcomes of what is typically thought of as a less severe workplace stressor. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Health impact assessment of Roma housing policies in Central and Eastern Europe: A comparative analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Molnar, Agnes, E-mail: molnar.agnes@sph.unideb.hu; Adam, Balazs, E-mail: adam.balazs@sph.unideb.hu; Antova, Temenujka, E-mail: t.antova@ncphp.government.bg

2012-02-15

Marginalised Roma communities in European countries live in substandard housing conditions the improvement of which has been one of the major issues of the Decade of Roma Inclusion, the ongoing intergovernmental European Roma programme. The paper presents EU-funded health impact assessments of national Roma housing policies and programmes in 3 Central and Eastern European countries in light of the evaluation of a completed local project in a fourth CEE country so as to compare predicted effects to observed ones. Housing was predicted to have beneficial health effects by improving indoor and outdoor conditions, access to services, and socioeconomic conditions. Negativemore » impacts were predicted only in terms of maintenance expenses and housing tenure. However, observed impacts of the completed local project did not fully support predictions especially in terms of social networks, satisfaction with housing and neighbourhood, and inhabitant safety. In order to improve the predictive value of HIA, more evidence should be produced by the careful evaluation of locally implemented housing projects. In addition, current evidence is in favour of planning Roma housing projects at the local rather than at the national level in alignment with the principle of subsidiarity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Predictive validity of HIA of national Roma housing policies - in light of current evidence - is low. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Implemented housing projects should be comprehensively evaluated to improve reliability of HIA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Roma housing projects should be planned at the local rather than at the national level. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer HIA should be used to plan Roma housing projects at the local level.« less

S100B Serum Levels Predict Treatment Response in Patients with Melancholic Depression

PubMed Central

Bergink, Veerle; Grosse, Laura; Alferink, Judith; Drexhage, Hemmo A.; Rothermundt, Matthias; Arolt, Volker; Birkenhäger, Tom K.

2016-01-01

Background: There is an ongoing search for biomarkers in psychiatry, for example, as diagnostic tools or predictors of treatment response. The neurotrophic factor S100 calcium binding protein B (S100B) has been discussed as a possible predictor of antidepressant response in patients with major depression, but also as a possible biomarker of an acute depressive state. The aim of the present study was to study the association of serum S100B levels with antidepressant treatment response and depression severity in melancholically depressed inpatients. Methods: After a wash-out period of 1 week, 40 inpatients with melancholic depression were treated with either venlafaxine or imipramine. S100B levels and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) scores were assessed at baseline, after 7 weeks of treatment, and after 6 months. Results: Patients with high S100B levels at baseline showed a markedly better treatment response defined as relative reduction in HAM-D scores than those with low baseline S100B levels after 7 weeks (P=.002) and 6 months (P=.003). In linear regression models, S100B was a significant predictor for treatment response at both time points. It is of interest to note that nonresponders were detected with a predictive value of 85% and a false negative rate of 7.5%. S100B levels were not associated with depression severity and did not change with clinical improvement. Conclusions: Low S100B levels predict nonresponse to venlafaxine and imipramine with high precision. Future studies have to show which treatments are effective in patients with low levels of S100B so that this biomarker will help to reduce patients’ burden of nonresponding to frequently used antidepressants. PMID:26364276

The Impacts of 3-D Earth Structure on GIA-Induced Crustal Deformation and Future Sea-Level Change in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, E. M.; Hay, C.; Latychev, K.; Gomez, N. A.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2016-12-01

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models used to constrain the extent of past ice sheets and viscoelastic Earth structure, or to correct geodetic and geological observables for ice age effects, generally only consider depth-dependent variations in Earth viscosity and lithospheric structure. A et al. [2013] argued that 3-D Earth structure could impact GIA observables in Antarctica, but concluded that the presence of such structure contributes less to GIA uncertainty than do differences in Antarctic deglaciation histories. New seismic and geological evidence, however, indicates the Antarctic is underlain by complex, high amplitude variability in viscoelastic structure, including a low viscosity zone (LVZ) under West Antarctica. Hay et al. [2016] showed that sea-level fingerprints of modern melting calculated using such Earth models differ from those based on elastic or 1-D viscoelastic Earth models within decades of melting. Our investigation is motivated by two questions: (1) How does 3-D Earth structure, especially this LVZ, impact observations of GIA-induced crustal deformation associated with the last deglaciation? (2) How will 3-D Earth structure affect predictions of future sea-level rise in Antarctica? We compute the gravitationally self-consistent sea level, uplift, and gravity changes using the finite volume treatment of Latychev et al. [2005]. We consider four viscoelastic Earth models: a global 1-D model; a regional, West Antarctic-like 1-D model; a 3-D model where the lithospheric thickness varies laterally; and a 3-D model where both viscosity and lithospheric thickness vary laterally. For our Last Glacial Maximum to present investigations we employ ICE6g [Peltier et al., 2015]. For our present-future investigations we consider a melt scenario consistent with GRACE satellite gravity derived solutions [Harig et al., 2015]. Our calculations indicate that predictions of crustal deformations due to both GIA and ongoing melting are strongly influenced by 3-D lithospheric thickness and viscosity structure. Future sea level change due to ongoing melting is primarily influenced by 3-D viscosity structure. We show that 1-D Earth models built using regional inferences of viscosity and lithospheric thickness do not accurately capture the variability introduced by 3-D Earth structure.

The Impacts of 3-D Earth Structure on GIA-Induced Crustal Deformation and Future Sea-Level Change in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, E. M.; Hay, C.; Latychev, K.; Gomez, N. A.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models used to constrain the extent of past ice sheets and viscoelastic Earth structure, or to correct geodetic and geological observables for ice age effects, generally only consider depth-dependent variations in Earth viscosity and lithospheric structure. A et al. [2013] argued that 3-D Earth structure could impact GIA observables in Antarctica, but concluded that the presence of such structure contributes less to GIA uncertainty than do differences in Antarctic deglaciation histories. New seismic and geological evidence, however, indicates the Antarctic is underlain by complex, high amplitude variability in viscoelastic structure, including a low viscosity zone (LVZ) under West Antarctica. Hay et al. [2016] showed that sea-level fingerprints of modern melting calculated using such Earth models differ from those based on elastic or 1-D viscoelastic Earth models within decades of melting. Our investigation is motivated by two questions: (1) How does 3-D Earth structure, especially this LVZ, impact observations of GIA-induced crustal deformation associated with the last deglaciation? (2) How will 3-D Earth structure affect predictions of future sea-level rise in Antarctica? We compute the gravitationally self-consistent sea level, uplift, and gravity changes using the finite volume treatment of Latychev et al. [2005]. We consider four viscoelastic Earth models: a global 1-D model; a regional, West Antarctic-like 1-D model; a 3-D model where the lithospheric thickness varies laterally; and a 3-D model where both viscosity and lithospheric thickness vary laterally. For our Last Glacial Maximum to present investigations we employ ICE6g [Peltier et al., 2015]. For our present-future investigations we consider a melt scenario consistent with GRACE satellite gravity derived solutions [Harig et al., 2015]. Our calculations indicate that predictions of crustal deformations due to both GIA and ongoing melting are strongly influenced by 3-D lithospheric thickness and viscosity structure. Future sea level change due to ongoing melting is primarily influenced by 3-D viscosity structure. We show that 1-D Earth models built using regional inferences of viscosity and lithospheric thickness do not accurately capture the variability introduced by 3-D Earth structure.

Older Adults Exposed to Ongoing versus Intense Time-Limited Missile Attacks: Differences in Symptoms of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder.

PubMed

Shrira, Amit; Shmotkin, Dov; Palgi, Yuval; Hoffman, Yaakov; Bodner, Ehud; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Litwin, Howard

2017-01-01

The potentially different psychological effects of ongoing trauma vis-à-vis an intense time-limited exposure to trauma have not been examined in older adults. Therefore, this study examined posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and their health concomitants in two groups of older adults in Israel: those exposed to ongoing missile attacks and those exposed to an intense time-limited period of missile attacks. In the third administration of the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE-Israel), 297 older adults reported ongoing exposure to missile attacks due to the Israel-Gaza conflict (mean age = 66.97), while 309 older adults reported exposure to an intense period of missile attacks during the Second Lebanon War (mean age = 66.63). Participants completed measures of PTSD symptoms, and physical, cognitive, and mental health. Older adults with ongoing exposure reported higher PTSD symptom level relative to those with intense time-limited exposure. The groups also differed in health variables related to PTSD symptoms. Namely, impaired physical and cognitive health were related to a higher level of PTSD symptoms in ongoing exposure, while impaired mental health was related to a higher PTSD symptom level following intense time-limited exposure. The findings suggest that physical and cognitive health involves resources that are vital for daily survival when living under ongoing warfare threat, whereas mental health involves resources that are needed in dealing with psychological effects of warfare trauma. Accordingly, different interventions may be necessary when helping older adults exposed to ongoing versus intense time-limited trauma.

Predicting Depression and Anxiety from Oppositional Defiant Disorder Symptoms in Elementary School-Age Girls and Boys with Conduct Problems.

PubMed

Déry, Michèle; Lapalme, Mélanie; Jagiellowicz, Jadzia; Poirier, Martine; Temcheff, Caroline; Toupin, Jean

2017-02-01

This study investigated the relationship between the three DSM-5 categories of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms (irritable mood, defiant behavior, vindictive behavior) and anxiety/depression in girls and boys with conduct problems (CP) while controlling for comorbid child psychopathology at baseline. Data were drawn from an ongoing longitudinal study of 6- to 9-year-old French-Canadian children (N = 276; 40.8 % girls) receiving special educational services for CP at school and followed for 2 years. Using linear regression analysis, the results showed that irritable mood symptoms predicted a higher level of depression and anxiety in girls and boys 2 years later, whereas the behavioral symptoms of ODD (e.g., defiant, vindictive symptoms) were linked to lower depression scores. The contribution of ODD symptoms to these predictions, while statistically significant, remained modest. The usefulness of ODD irritable symptoms as a marker for identifying girls and boys with CP who are more vulnerable to developing internalizing problems is discussed.

Contra-Rotating Open Rotor Tone Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Edmane

2014-01-01

Reliable prediction of contra-rotating open rotor (CROR) noise is an essential element of any strategy for the development of low-noise open rotor propulsion systems that can meet both the community noise regulations and the cabin noise limits. Since CROR noise spectra typically exhibits a preponderance of tones, significant efforts have been directed towards predicting their tone spectra. To that end, there has been an ongoing effort at NASA to assess various in-house open rotor tone noise prediction tools using a benchmark CROR blade set for which significant aerodynamic and acoustic data had been acquired in wind tunnel tests. In the work presented here, the focus is on the near-field noise of the benchmark open rotor blade set at the cruise condition. Using an analytical CROR tone noise model with input from high-fidelity aerodynamic simulations, detailed tone noise spectral predictions have been generated and compared with the experimental data. Comparisons indicate that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the data, especially for the dominant CROR tones and their overall sound pressure level. The results also indicate that, whereas individual rotor tones are well predicted by the linear sources (i.e., thickness and loading), for the interaction tones it is essential that the quadrupole sources be included in the analysis.

Contra-Rotating Open Rotor Tone Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Edmane

2014-01-01

Reliable prediction of contra-rotating open rotor (CROR) noise is an essential element of any strategy for the development of low-noise open rotor propulsion systems that can meet both the community noise regulations and cabin noise limits. Since CROR noise spectra exhibit a preponderance of tones, significant efforts have been directed towards predicting their tone content. To that end, there has been an ongoing effort at NASA to assess various in-house open rotor tone noise prediction tools using a benchmark CROR blade set for which significant aerodynamic and acoustic data have been acquired in wind tunnel tests. In the work presented here, the focus is on the nearfield noise of the benchmark open rotor blade set at the cruise condition. Using an analytical CROR tone noise model with input from high-fidelity aerodynamic simulations, tone noise spectra have been predicted and compared with the experimental data. Comparisons indicate that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the data, especially for the dominant tones and for the overall sound pressure level of tones. The results also indicate that, whereas the individual rotor tones are well predicted by the combination of the thickness and loading sources, for the interaction tones it is essential that the quadrupole source is also included in the analysis.

Milieu matters: Evidence that ongoing lifestyle activities influence health behaviors

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rob; Norman, Paul

2017-01-01

Health behaviors occur within a milieu of lifestyle activities that could conflict with health actions. We examined whether cognitions about, and performance of, other lifestyle activities augment the prediction of health behaviors, and whether these lifestyle factors are especially influential among individuals with low health behavior engagement. Participants (N = 211) completed measures of past behavior and cognitions relating to five health behaviors (e.g., smoking, getting drunk) and 23 lifestyle activities (e.g., reading, socializing), as well as personality variables. All behaviors were measured again at two weeks. Data were analyzed using neural network and cluster analyses. The neural network accurately predicted health behaviors at follow-up (R2 = .71). As hypothesized, lifestyle cognitions and activities independently predicted health behaviors over and above behavior-specific cognitions and previous behavior. Additionally, lifestyle activities and poor self-regulatory capability were more influential among people exhibiting unhealthy behaviors. Considering ongoing lifestyle activities can enhance prediction and understanding of health behaviors and offer new targets for health behavior interventions. PMID:28662120

Ongoing Relative Performance Evaluation for a CO2 EOR Asset in a Worldwide Peer Group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, C. F.; Li, X. S.; Wang, G. H.; Li, L.

2017-10-01

Abstract. Operators of a CO2 EOR asset need to know the relative performance level of their asset against its peers. The ongoing relative performance evaluation method is appropriate for this purpose. We first choose 52 CO2 assets around the world as the peer group, and then define the four ranking levels in terms of CO2consumption ratio. Only the final values of CO2consumption ratio for the group are obtained, and therefore cannot be used for an ongoing evaluation during a CO2 EOR asset’s life circle. Consequently, numerical reservoir simulation is employed to quantify the process values corresponding to the four ranking levels. Type curve plots are generated on the basis of the process values and utilized for the ongoing relative performance evaluation of a CO2 EOR asset in China.

Energy index decomposition methodology at the plant level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumphai, Wisit

Scope and method of study. The dissertation explores the use of a high level energy intensity index as a facility-level energy performance monitoring indicator with a goal of developing a methodology for an economically based energy performance monitoring system that incorporates production information. The performance measure closely monitors energy usage, production quantity, and product mix and determines the production efficiency as a part of an ongoing process that would enable facility managers to keep track of and, in the future, be able to predict when to perform a recommissioning process. The study focuses on the use of the index decomposition methodology and explored several high level (industry, sector, and country levels) energy utilization indexes, namely, Additive Log Mean Divisia, Multiplicative Log Mean Divisia, and Additive Refined Laspeyres. One level of index decomposition is performed. The indexes are decomposed into Intensity and Product mix effects. These indexes are tested on a flow shop brick manufacturing plant model in three different climates in the United States. The indexes obtained are analyzed by fitting an ARIMA model and testing for dependency between the two decomposed indexes. Findings and conclusions. The results concluded that the Additive Refined Laspeyres index decomposition methodology is suitable to use on a flow shop, non air conditioned production environment as an energy performance monitoring indicator. It is likely that this research can be further expanded in to predicting when to perform a recommissioning process.

Insulin-like growth factor-1: a possible marker for emotional and cognitive disturbances, and treatment effectiveness in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Levada, Oleg A; Troyan, Alexandra S

2017-01-01

Depression and cognitive dysfunction share a common neuropathological platform. Abnormal neural plasticity in the frontolimbic circuits has been linked to changes in the expression of neurotrophic factors, including IGF-1. These changes may result in clinical abnormalities observed over the course of major depressive disorder (MDD), including cognitive dysfunction. The present review aimed to summarize evidence regarding abnormalities of peripheral IGF-1 in MDD patients and assess a marker and predictive role of the neurotrophin for emotional and cognitive disturbances, and treatment effectiveness. A literature search of the PubMed database was conducted for studies, in which peripheral IGF-1 levels were evaluated. Our analysis revealed four main findings: (1) IGF-1 levels in MDD patients mismatch across the studies, which may arise from various factors, e.g., age, gender, the course of the disease, presence of cognitive impairment, ongoing therapy, or general health conditions; (2) the initial peripheral IGF-1 levels may predict the occurrence of depression in future; (3) peripheral IGF-1 levels may reflect cognitive dysfunction, although the data is limited; (4) it is difficult to evaluate the influence of treatment on IGF-1 levels as there is discrepancy of this growth factor among the studies at baseline, although most of them showed a decrease in IGF-1 levels after treatment.

Testing an Earthquake Prediction Algorithm: The 2016 New Zealand and Chile Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2017-05-01

The 13 November 2016, M7.8, 54 km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand and the 25 December 2016, M7.6, 42 km SW of Puerto Quellon, Chile earthquakes happened outside the area of the on-going real-time global testing of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8, accepted in 1992 for the M7.5+ range. Naturally, over the past two decades, the level of registration of earthquakes worldwide has grown significantly and by now is sufficient for diagnosis of times of increased probability (TIPs) by the M8 algorithm on the entire territory of New Zealand and Southern Chile as far as below 40°S. The mid-2016 update of the M8 predictions determines TIPs in the additional circles of investigation (CIs) where the two earthquakes have happened. Thus, after 50 semiannual updates in the real-time prediction mode, we (1) confirm statistically approved high confidence of the M8-MSc predictions and (2) conclude a possibility of expanding the territory of the Global Test of the algorithms M8 and MSc in an apparently necessary revision of the 1992 settings.

Predictive probability methods for interim monitoring in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes.

PubMed

Zhou, Ming; Tang, Qi; Lang, Lixin; Xing, Jun; Tatsuoka, Kay

2018-04-17

In clinical research and development, interim monitoring is critical for better decision-making and minimizing the risk of exposing patients to possible ineffective therapies. For interim futility or efficacy monitoring, predictive probability methods are widely adopted in practice. Those methods have been well studied for univariate variables. However, for longitudinal studies, predictive probability methods using univariate information from only completers may not be most efficient, and data from on-going subjects can be utilized to improve efficiency. On the other hand, leveraging information from on-going subjects could allow an interim analysis to be potentially conducted once a sufficient number of subjects reach an earlier time point. For longitudinal outcomes, we derive closed-form formulas for predictive probabilities, including Bayesian predictive probability, predictive power, and conditional power and also give closed-form solutions for predictive probability of success in a future trial and the predictive probability of success of the best dose. When predictive probabilities are used for interim monitoring, we study their distributions and discuss their analytical cutoff values or stopping boundaries that have desired operating characteristics. We show that predictive probabilities utilizing all longitudinal information are more efficient for interim monitoring than that using information from completers only. To illustrate their practical application for longitudinal data, we analyze 2 real data examples from clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A summary of the lateral cutoff analysis and results from NASA's Farfield Investigation of No-boom Thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliatt, Larry J.; Hill, Michael A.; Haering, Edward A.; Arnac, Sarah R.

2015-10-01

In support of the ongoing effort by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to bring supersonic commercial travel to the public, NASA, in partnership with other industry organizations, conducted a flight research experiment to analyze acoustic propagation at the lateral edge of the sonic boom carpet. The name of the effort was the Farfield Investigation of No-boom Thresholds (FaINT). The research from FaINT determined an appropriate metric for sonic boom waveforms in the transition and shadow zones called Perceived Sound Exposure Level, established a value of 65 dB as a limit for the acoustic lateral extent of a sonic boom's noise region, analyzed change in sonic boom levels near lateral cutoff, and compared between real sonic boom measurements and numerical predictions.

A Summary of the Lateral Cutoff Analysis and Results from Nasa's Farfield Investigation of No-Boom Thresholds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cliatt, Larry J., II; Hill, Michael A.; Haering, Edward A., Jr.; Arnac, Sarah R.

2015-01-01

In support of the ongoing effort by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to bring supersonic commercial travel to the public, NASA, in partnership with other industry organizations, conducted a flight research experiment to analyze acoustic propagation at the lateral edge of the sonic boom carpet. The name of the effort was the Farfield Investigation of No-boom Thresholds (FaINT). The research from FaINT determined an appropriate metric for sonic boom waveforms in the transition and shadow zones called Perceived Sound Exposure Level, established a value of 65 dB as a limit for the acoustic lateral extent of a sonic boom's noise region, analyzed change in sonic boom levels near lateral cutoff, and compared between real sonic boom measurements and numerical predictions.

The prestimulus default mode network state predicts cognitive task performance levels on a mental rotation task.

PubMed

Kamp, Tabea; Sorger, Bettina; Benjamins, Caroline; Hausfeld, Lars; Goebel, Rainer

2018-06-22

Linking individual task performance to preceding, regional brain activation is an ongoing goal of neuroscientific research. Recently, it could be shown that the activation and connectivity within large-scale brain networks prior to task onset influence performance levels. More specifically, prestimulus default mode network (DMN) effects have been linked to performance levels in sensory near-threshold tasks, as well as cognitive tasks. However, it still remains uncertain how the DMN state preceding cognitive tasks affects performance levels when the period between task trials is long and flexible, allowing participants to engage in different cognitive states. We here investigated whether the prestimulus activation and within-network connectivity of the DMN are predictive of the correctness and speed of task performance levels on a cognitive (match-to-sample) mental rotation task, employing a sparse event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) design. We found that prestimulus activation in the DMN predicted the speed of correct trials, with a higher amplitude preceding correct fast response trials compared to correct slow response trials. Moreover, we found higher connectivity within the DMN before incorrect trials compared to correct trials. These results indicate that pre-existing activation and connectivity states within the DMN influence task performance on cognitive tasks, both effecting the correctness and speed of task execution. The findings support existing theories and empirical work on relating mind-wandering and cognitive task performance to the DMN and expand these by establishing a relationship between the prestimulus DMN state and the speed of cognitive task performance. © 2018 The Authors. Brain and Behavior published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using Vision and Speech Features for Automated Prediction of Performance Metrics in Multimodal Dialogs. Research Report. ETS RR-17-20

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramanarayanan, Vikram; Lange, Patrick; Evanini, Keelan; Molloy, Hillary; Tsuprun, Eugene; Qian, Yao; Suendermann-Oeft, David

2017-01-01

Predicting and analyzing multimodal dialog user experience (UX) metrics, such as overall call experience, caller engagement, and latency, among other metrics, in an ongoing manner is important for evaluating such systems. We investigate automated prediction of multiple such metrics collected from crowdsourced interactions with an open-source,…

Flowering in grassland predicted by CO2 and resource effects on species aboveground biomass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ongoing enrichment of atmospheric CO2 concentration may increase plant community productivity by changing plant community composition through direct and indirect effects on light, water, or nutrient availability. CO2 enrichment has been predicted to reduce plant reproductive allocation in herbaceou...

Climate change effects on fishes and fisheries: towards a cause-and-effect understanding.

PubMed

Pörtner, H O; Peck, M A

2010-11-01

Ongoing climate change is predicted to affect individual organisms during all life stages, thereby affecting populations of a species, communities and the functioning of ecosystems. These effects of climate change can be direct, through changing water temperatures and associated phenologies, the lengths and frequency of hypoxia events, through ongoing ocean acidification trends or through shifts in hydrodynamics and in sea level. In some cases, climate interactions with a species will also, or mostly, be indirect and mediated through direct effects on key prey species which change the composition and dynamic coupling of food webs. Thus, the implications of climate change for marine fish populations can be seen to result from phenomena at four interlinked levels of biological organization: (1) organismal-level physiological changes will occur in response to changing environmental variables such as temperature, dissolved oxygen and ocean carbon dioxide levels. An integrated view of relevant effects, adaptation processes and tolerance limits is provided by the concept of oxygen and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLT). (2) Individual-level behavioural changes may occur such as the avoidance of unfavourable conditions and, if possible, movement into suitable areas. (3) Population-level changes may be observed via changes in the balance between rates of mortality, growth and reproduction. This includes changes in the retention or dispersion of early life stages by ocean currents, which lead to the establishment of new populations in new areas or abandonment of traditional habitats. (4) Ecosystem-level changes in productivity and food web interactions will result from differing physiological responses by organisms at different levels of the food web. The shifts in biogeography and warming-induced biodiversity will affect species productivity and may, thus, explain changes in fisheries economies. This paper tries to establish links between various levels of biological organization by means of addressing the effective physiological principles at the cellular, tissue and whole organism levels. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Bidirectional Associations Between Newlyweds' Marital Satisfaction and Marital Problems over Time.

PubMed

Lavner, Justin A; Karney, Benjamin R; Williamson, Hannah C; Bradbury, Thomas N

2017-12-01

Prevailing views of marital functioning generally adopt the view that marital problems predict decreases in marital satisfaction, but alternative theoretical perspectives raise the possibility that lowered satisfaction can also predict increases in problems. The current study sought to integrate and compare these perspectives by examining the bidirectional cross-lagged associations between newlyweds' reports of their marital satisfaction and marital problems over the first 4 years of marriage. Using annual assessments from 483 heterosexual newlywed couples, we find evidence for problem-to-satisfaction linkages as well as satisfaction-to-problem linkages. Satisfaction was a stronger predictor of marital problems early in marriage but not as time passed; by Year 4 only problem-to-satisfaction linkages remained significant. These findings are consistent with the idea that couples with more problems go on to report lower levels of satisfaction and couples with lower levels of satisfaction go on to report more marital problems. This dynamic interplay between global judgments about relationship satisfaction and ongoing specific relationship difficulties highlights the value of examining bidirectional effects to better understand marital functioning over time. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Sex-specific relationships among attachment security, social values, and sensation seeking in early adolescence: implications for adolescents' externalizing problem behaviour.

PubMed

Sarracino, Diego; Presaghi, Fabio; Degni, Silvia; Innamorati, Marco

2011-06-01

In early adolescence, attachment security reflects not only the quality of ongoing relationships with parents, but also how adolescents process social relationships with "others" - that is, their "social value orientation" - with possible implications for adolescents' risk-taking. In this study, a sample of Italian early adolescents were administered self-report measures in order to examine the relationships (a) between early adolescents' perceived attachment security to mothers and fathers, social values (related to family and the socio-cultural context), and sensation seeking (as a temperamental predisposition to risk-taking), and (b) between these variables and adolescents' externalizing problem behaviour. Adolescents were more securely attached to the same-sexed parent. Further, attachment security with the opposite-sexed parent predicted more conservative social value orientations, and lower levels of problem behaviour. In contrast, sensation seeking predicted self-enhancement and openness-to-change values to a greater extent, and, in girls, lower levels of attachment security to mothers and fathers. Copyright © 2010 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supersymmetry and Kaon physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Kei

2017-01-01

Kaon physics has played an essential role in testing the Standard Model and in searching for new physics with measurements of CP violation and rare decays. Current progress of lattice calculations enables us to predict kaon observables accurately, especially for the direct CP violation, ε‧/ε, and there is a discrepancy from the experimental data at the 2.9 σ level. On the experimental side, the rare kaon decays and are ongoing to be measured at the SM accuracy by KOTO at J-PARC and NA62 at CERN. These kaon observables are good probes for new physics. We study supersymmetric effects; the chargino and gluino contributions to Z penguin, in kaon observables.

Interim results of long-term environmental exposures of advanced composites for aircraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pride, R. A.

1978-01-01

Interim results from a number of ongoing, long-term environmental effects programs for composite materials are reported. The flight service experience is evaluated for 142 composite aircraft components after more than five years and one million successful component flight hours. Ground-based outdoor exposures of composite material coupons after 3 years of exposure at five sites have reached equilibrium levels of moisture pickup which are predictable. Solar ultraviolet-induced material loss is discussed for these same exposures. No significant degradation has been observed in residual strength for either stressed or unstressed specimens, or for exposures to aviation fuels and fluids.

A randomized double-blinded controlled trial of hCG as luteal phase support in natural cycle frozen embryo transfer.

PubMed

Lee, Vivian Chi Yan; Li, Raymond Hang Wun; Yeung, William Shu Biu; Pak Chung, H O; Ng, Ernest Hung Yu

2017-05-01

Does the use of hCG as luteal phase support in natural cycle frozen embryo transfer (FET) increase the ongoing pregnancy rate? The use of hCG in natural cycle FET did not improve the ongoing pregnancy rate. The use of luteal phase support in stimulated cycles has been associated with higher live-birth rates and the results are similar when using hCG or progesterone. This is a randomized double-blinded controlled trial of 450 women recruited between August 2013 and October 2015. Women with regular cycles undergoing natural cycle FET were recruited. Serial serum hormonal concentrations were used to time natural ovulation and at least Day 2 cleavage embryos were replaced. Patients were randomized into either: (i) the treatment group, receiving 1500 IU hCG on the day of FET and 6 days after FET, or (ii) the control group, receiving normal saline on these 2 days. The ongoing pregnancy rate [60/225 (26.7%) in the treatment group vs 70/225 (31.3%) in the control group, odds ratio 1.242 (95% CI 0.825-1.869)], implantation rate and miscarriage rate were comparable between the two groups. In the treatment group, there were significantly more cycles with top quality embryos transferred and a significantly higher serum oestradiol level, but a comparable serum progesterone level, 6 days after FET. However, no significant differences were observed in serum oestradiol and progesterone levels 6 days after FET between the pregnant and non-pregnant women. In the multivariate logistic regression, the number of embryos transferred was the only significant factor predictive of the ongoing pregnancy rate after natural cycle FET. This study only included FET with cleavage stage embryos and only hCG, not vaginal progesterone, was used as luteal phase support. The findings in this study do not support the use of hCG for luteal phase support in natural cycle FET. No external funding was used and there were no competing interests. clinicaltrial.gov identifier: NCT01931384. 23/8/2013. 30/8/2013. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Prediction of Composition and Emission Characteristics of Articles in Support of Exposure Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The risk to humans from chemicals in consumer products is dependent on both hazard and exposure. The prediction and quantification of near-field (i.e., indoor) chemical exposure from household articles such as furniture and building materials is an ongoing effort. As opposed to (...

Elevated Endomyocardial Biopsy Macrophage-Related Markers in Intractable Myocardial Diseases.

PubMed

Hayashi, Yuka; Hanawa, Haruo; Jiao, Shuang; Hasegawa, Go; Ohno, Yukako; Yoshida, Kaori; Suzuki, Tomoyasu; Kashimura, Takeshi; Obata, Hiroaki; Tanaka, Komei; Watanabe, Tohru; Minamino, Tohru

2015-12-01

Tissue macrophages can be activated by endogenous danger signals released from cells that are stressed or injured, leading to infiltration of inflammatory macrophages and neutrophils. We postulated that macrophage-related markers might be closely associated with the existence of endogenous danger signals, reflecting ongoing tissue injury in the absence of foreign substances. This study was designed to assess the ability of macrophage-related markers in endomyocardial biopsies to predict ongoing cardiac injury in non-inflammatory myocardial diseases. We examined levels of macrophage-related markers (CD68, CD163, CD45) in endomyocardial biopsies from patients (n = 86) with various myocardial diseases by quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (n = 78) and immunohistochemistry (n = 56). Thirty-three patients without inflammatory cardiac disease such as myocarditis and sarcoidosis were classified as "improved" or "non-improved" defined as a 10% increase in left ventricular ejection fraction by echocardiograph and a value greater than 30% at the time of follow-up. All macrophage-related (MacR) markers levels were not higher in non-improved dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) patients than improved patients. However, patients with cardiac amyloidosis, cardiac Fabry disease, mitochondrial cardiomyopathy, and biventricular arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC), which were categorized as "non-improvement diseases," had elevated macrophage-related markers compared to improved patients. Macrophage-related markers levels were increased in endomyocardial biopsy samples of patients with intractable myocardial diseases such as amyloidosis, mitochondrial disease, Fabry disease, and biventricular ARVC.

Evaluation of phylogenetic footprint discovery for predicting bacterial cis-regulatory elements and revealing their evolution.

PubMed

Janky, Rekin's; van Helden, Jacques

2008-01-23

The detection of conserved motifs in promoters of orthologous genes (phylogenetic footprints) has become a common strategy to predict cis-acting regulatory elements. Several software tools are routinely used to raise hypotheses about regulation. However, these tools are generally used as black boxes, with default parameters. A systematic evaluation of optimal parameters for a footprint discovery strategy can bring a sizeable improvement to the predictions. We evaluate the performances of a footprint discovery approach based on the detection of over-represented spaced motifs. This method is particularly suitable for (but not restricted to) Bacteria, since such motifs are typically bound by factors containing a Helix-Turn-Helix domain. We evaluated footprint discovery in 368 Escherichia coli K12 genes with annotated sites, under 40 different combinations of parameters (taxonomical level, background model, organism-specific filtering, operon inference). Motifs are assessed both at the levels of correctness and significance. We further report a detailed analysis of 181 bacterial orthologs of the LexA repressor. Distinct motifs are detected at various taxonomical levels, including the 7 previously characterized taxon-specific motifs. In addition, we highlight a significantly stronger conservation of half-motifs in Actinobacteria, relative to Firmicutes, suggesting an intermediate state in specificity switching between the two Gram-positive phyla, and thereby revealing the on-going evolution of LexA auto-regulation. The footprint discovery method proposed here shows excellent results with E. coli and can readily be extended to predict cis-acting regulatory signals and propose testable hypotheses in bacterial genomes for which nothing is known about regulation.

Predictability and preparedness in influenza control.

PubMed

Smith, Derek J

2006-04-21

The threat of pandemic human influenza looms as we survey the ongoing avian influenza pandemic and wonder if and when it will jump species. What are the risks and how can we plan? The nub of the problem lies in the inherent variability of the virus, which makes prediction difficult. However, it is not impossible; mathematical models can help determine and quantify critical parameters and thresholds in the relationships of those parameters, even if the relationships are nonlinear and obscure to simple reasoning. Mathematical models can derive estimates for the levels of drug stockpiles needed to buy time, how and when to modify vaccines, whom to target with vaccines and drugs, and when to enforce quarantine measures. Regardless, the models used for pandemic planning must be tested, and for this we must continue to gather data, not just for exceptional scenarios but also for seasonal influenza.

Boundary Conditions for Jet Flow Computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayder, M. E.; Turkel, E.

1994-01-01

Ongoing activities are focused on capturing the sound source in a supersonic jet through careful large eddy simulation (LES). One issue that is addressed is the effect of the boundary conditions, both inflow and outflow, on the predicted flow fluctuations, which represent the sound source. In this study, we examine the accuracy of several boundary conditions to determine their suitability for computations of time-dependent flows. Various boundary conditions are used to compute the flow field of a laminar axisymmetric jet excited at the inflow by a disturbance given by the corresponding eigenfunction of the linearized stability equations. We solve the full time dependent Navier-Stokes equations by a high order numerical scheme. For very small excitations, the computed growth of the modes closely corresponds to that predicted by the linear theory. We then vary the excitation level to see the effect of the boundary conditions in the nonlinear flow regime.

Predicting homeowners' approval of fuel management at the wild-urban interface using the theory of reasoned action.

Treesearch

Christine A. Vogt; Greg Winter; Jeremy S. Fried

2005-01-01

Social science models are increasingly needed as a framework for explaining and predicting how members of the public respond to the natural environment and their communities. The theory of reasoned action is widely used in human dimensions research on natural resource problems and work is ongoing to increase the predictive power of models based on this theory. This...

Electrical stimulation of rhesus monkey nucleus reticularis gigantocellularis. II. Effects on metrics and kinematics of ongoing gaze shifts to visual targets.

PubMed

Freedman, Edward G; Quessy, Stephan

2004-06-01

Saccade kinematics are altered by ongoing head movements. The hypothesis that a head movement command signal, proportional to head velocity, transiently reduces the gain of the saccadic burst generator (Freedman 2001, Biol Cybern 84:453-462) can account for this observation. Using electrical stimulation of the rhesus monkey nucleus reticularis gigantocellularis (NRG) to alter the head contribution to ongoing gaze shifts, two critical predictions of this gaze control hypothesis were tested. First, this hypothesis predicts that activation of the head command pathway will cause a transient reduction in the gain of the saccadic burst generator. This should alter saccade kinematics by initially reducing velocity without altering saccade amplitude. Second, because this hypothesis does not assume that gaze amplitude is controlled via feedback, the added head contribution (produced by NRG stimulation on the side ipsilateral to the direction of an ongoing gaze shift) should lead to hypermetric gaze shifts. At every stimulation site tested, saccade kinematics were systematically altered in a way that was consistent with transient reduction of the gain of the saccadic burst generator. In addition, gaze shifts produced during NRG stimulation were hypermetric compared with control movements. For example, when targets were briefly flashed 30 degrees from an initial fixation location, gaze shifts during NRG stimulation were on average 140% larger than control movements. These data are consistent with the predictions of the tested hypothesis, and may be problematic for gaze control models that rely on feedback control of gaze amplitude, as well as for models that do not posit an interaction between head commands and the saccade burst generator.

The PD-1 pathway as a therapeutic target to overcome immune escape mechanisms in cancer.

PubMed

Henick, Brian S; Herbst, Roy S; Goldberg, Sarah B

2014-12-01

Immunotherapy is emerging as a powerful approach in cancer treatment. Preclinical data predicted the antineoplastic effects seen in clinical trials of programmed death-1 (PD-1) pathway inhibitors, as well as their observed toxicities. The results of early clinical trials are extraordinarily promising in several cancer types and have shaped the direction of ongoing and future studies. This review describes the biological rationale for targeting the PD-1 pathway with monoclonal antibodies for the treatment of cancer as a context for examining the results of early clinical trials. It also surveys the landscape of ongoing clinical trials and discusses their anticipated strengths and limitations. PD-1 pathway inhibition represents a new frontier in cancer immunotherapy, which shows clear evidence of activity in various tumor types including NSCLC and melanoma. Ongoing and upcoming trials will examine optimal combinations of these agents, which should further define their role across tumor types. Current limitations include the absence of a reliable companion diagnostic to predict likely responders, as well as lack of data in early-stage cancer when treatment has the potential to increase cure rates.

A comparison of transfer-appropriate processing and multi-process frameworks for prospective memory performance.

PubMed

McBride, Dawn M; Abney, Drew H

2012-01-01

We examined multi-process (MP) and transfer-appropriate processing descriptions of prospective memory (PM). Three conditions were compared that varied the overlap in processing type (perceptual/conceptual) between the ongoing and PM tasks such that two conditions involved a match of perceptual processing and one condition involved a mismatch in processing (conceptual ongoing task/perceptual PM task). One of the matched processing conditions also created a focal PM task, whereas the other two conditions were considered non-focal (Einstein & McDaniel, 2005). PM task accuracy and ongoing task completion speed in baseline and PM task conditions were measured. Accuracy results indicated a higher PM task completion rate for the focal condition than the non-focal conditions, a finding that is consistent with predictions made by the MP view. However, reaction time (RT) analyses indicated that PM task cost did not differ across conditions when practice effects are considered. Thus, the PM accuracy results are consistent with a MP description of PM, but RT results did not support the MP view predictions regarding PM cost.

Work environment stressors, social support, anxiety, and depression among secondary school teachers.

PubMed

Mahan, Pamela L; Mahan, Michael P; Park, Na-Jin; Shelton, Christie; Brown, Kathleen C; Weaver, Michael T

2010-05-01

Work environment stress, a salient health and safety issue for secondary school teachers, school administrators, parents, and students, was examined in 168 teachers from two urban and five suburban high schools. The purpose of this study was to examine relationships between ongoing and episodic stressors and anxiety and depression, as well as the extent to which anxiety and depression may be predicted by stressors and coworker and supervisor support. The Ongoing Stressor Scale (OSS) and the Episodic Stressor Scale (ESS), the Coworker and Supervisor Contents of Communication Scales (COCS), the State Anxiety inventory (S-Anxiety), and the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) were used to measure the variables. Ongoing and episodic stressors were significantly and positively associated with anxiety and depression. Ongoing stressors and coworker support were significant in explaining anxiety and depression among secondary school teachers. Coworker support had an inverse relationship to anxiety and depression.

The Role of Feedback in the Assimilation of Information in Prediction Markets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jolly, Richard Donald

2011-01-01

Leveraging the knowledge of an organization is an ongoing challenge that has given rise to the field of knowledge management. Yet, despite spending enormous sums of organizational resources on Information Technology (IT) systems, executives recognize there is much more knowledge to harvest. Prediction markets are emerging as one tool to help…

Self-assessment in schizophrenia: Accuracy of evaluation of cognition and everyday functioning.

PubMed

Gould, Felicia; McGuire, Laura Stone; Durand, Dante; Sabbag, Samir; Larrauri, Carlos; Patterson, Thomas L; Twamley, Elizabeth W; Harvey, Philip D

2015-09-01

Self-assessment deficits, often referred to as impaired insight or unawareness of illness, are well established in people with schizophrenia. There are multiple levels of awareness, including awareness of symptoms, functional deficits, cognitive impairments, and the ability to monitor cognitive and functional performance in an ongoing manner. The present study aimed to evaluate the comparative predictive value of each aspect of awareness on the levels of everyday functioning in people with schizophrenia. We examined multiple aspects of self-assessment of functioning in 214 people with schizophrenia. We also collected information on everyday functioning rated by high contact clinicians and examined the importance of self-assessment for the prediction of real-world functional outcomes. The relative impact of performance-based measures of cognition, functional capacity, and metacognitive performance on everyday functioning was also examined. Misestimation of ability emerged as the strongest predictor of real-world functioning and exceeded the influences of cognitive performance, functional capacity performance, and performance-based assessment of metacognitive monitoring. The relative contribution of the factors other than self-assessment varied according to which domain of everyday functioning was being examined, but, in all cases, accounted for less predictive variance. These results underscore the functional impact of misestimating one's current functioning and relative level of ability. These findings are consistent with the use of insight-focused treatments and compensatory strategies designed to increase self-awareness in multiple functional domains. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Self Assessment in Schizophrenia: Accuracy of Evaluation of Cognition and Everyday Functioning

PubMed Central

Gould, Felicia; McGuire, Laura Stone; Durand, Dante; Sabbag, Samir; Larrauri, Carlos; Patterson, Thomas L.; Twamley, Elizabeth W.; Harvey, Philip D.

2015-01-01

Objective Self-assessment deficits, often referred to as impaired insight or unawareness of illness, are well established in people with schizophrenia. There are multiple levels of awareness, including awareness of symptoms, functional deficits, cognitive impairments, and the ability to monitor cognitive and functional performance in an ongoing manner. The present study aimed to evaluate the comparative predictive value of each aspect of awareness on the levels of everyday functioning in people with schizophrenia. Method We examined multiple aspects of self-assessment of functioning in 214 people with schizophrenia. We also collected information on everyday functioning rated by high contact clinicians and examined the importance of self-assessment for the prediction of real world functional outcomes. The relative impact of performance based measures of cognition, functional capacity, and metacognitive performance on everyday functioning was also examined. Results Misestimation of ability emerged as the strongest predictor of real world functioning and exceeded the influences of cognitive performance, functional capacity performance, and performance-based assessment of metacognitive monitoring. The relative contribution of the factors other than self-assessment varied according to which domain of everyday functioning was being examined, but in all cases, accounted for less predictive variance. Conclusions These results underscore the functional impact of misestimating one’s current functioning and relative level of ability. These findings are consistent with the use of insight-focused treatments and compensatory strategies designed to increase self-awareness in multiple functional domains. PMID:25643212

Prediction of Adolescents’ Glycemic Control 1 Year After Diabetes-Specific Family Conflict

PubMed Central

Hilliard, Marisa E.; Guilfoyle, Shanna M.; Dolan, Lawrence M.; Hood, Korey K.

2015-01-01

Objective To test adherence to blood glucose monitoring (BGM) as a mediator between diabetes-specific family conflict and glycemic control (hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] levels) for 1 year. Design Three waves of prospective data spanning 1 year. Setting Diabetes clinic in a large tertiary care children’s hospital in the Midwestern United States. Participants One hundred forty-five dyads composed of an adolescent (aged 13–18 years) with type 1 diabetes mellitus and a parent. Main Exposures Adolescent- and parent-rated diabetes-specific family conflict and mean daily BGM frequency obtained through meter downloads. Main Outcome Measure Levels of HbA1c, abstracted from the medical record. Results In separate general linear models, higher adolescent-rated family conflict scores at baseline predicted less frequent BGM at 6 months (β=−0.08 [P=.01]) and higher HbA1c levels at 12 months (β=0.08 [P=.02]). In the multivariate model including baseline conflict and BGM as predictors of HbA1c levels, BGM was a significant predictor (β=−0.24 [P=.007]) and conflict was no longer significant (β=0.05 [P=.11]), supporting the mediation hypothesis. Post hoc probing showed that BGM explained 24% of the variance in the conflict-HbA1c link. The mediation between parent-reported conflict andHbA1c levels via BGM adherence was partially supported (conflict predicting HbA1c in the zero-order equation, β=−0.24 [P=.004]; multivariate equation, β=0.06 [P=.02]), and BGM frequency explained 16% of the conflict-HbA1c link. Conclusions Diabetes-specific family conflict in adolescence predicts deteriorations in BGM and subsequent glycemic control for at least 1 year. Results support ongoing intervention research designed to reduce family conflict and thus prevent a trajectory of declining adherence and glycemic control across adolescence. PMID:21727273

The MOOC and Learning Analytics Innovation Cycle (MOLAC): A Reflective Summary of Ongoing Research and Its Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drachsler, H.; Kalz, M.

2016-01-01

The article deals with the interplay between learning analytics and massive open online courses (MOOCs) and provides a conceptual framework to situate ongoing research in the MOOC and learning analytics innovation cycle (MOLAC framework). The MOLAC framework is organized on three levels: On the micro-level, the data collection and analytics…

[Genome-wide screening of predicted sugar transporters in Neurospora crassa and the application in hexose fermentation by Saccharomyces cerevisiae].

PubMed

Gao, Jingfang; Wang, Bang; Han, Xiaoyun; Tian, Chaoguang

2017-01-25

The lignocellulolytic filamentous fungus Neurospora crassa is able to assimilate various mono- and oligo-saccharides. However, more than half of predicted sugar transporters in the genome are still waiting for functional elucidation. In this study, system analysis of substrate spectra of predicted sugar transporters in N. crassa was performed at genome-wide level. NCU01868 and NCU08152 have the capability of uptaking various hexose, which are named as NcHXT-1 and NcHXT-2 respectively. Their transport activities for glucose were further confirmed by fluorescence resonance energy transfer analysis. Over-expression of either NcHXT-1 or NcHXT-2 in the null-hexose-transporter yeast EBY.VW4000 restored the growth and ethanol fermentation under submerged fermentation with glucose, galactose, or mannose as the sole carbon source. NcHXT-1/-2 homologues were found in a variety of cellulolytic fungi. Functional identification of two filamentous fungal-conserved hexose transporters NcHXT-1/-2 via genome scanning would represent novel targets for ongoing efforts in engineering cellulolytic fungi and hexose fermentation in yeast.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com; Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com; Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasingmore » populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.« less

Evaluating stress, burnout and job satisfaction in New Zealand radiation oncology departments.

PubMed

Jasperse, M; Herst, P; Dungey, G

2014-01-01

This research aimed to determine the levels of occupational stress, burnout and job satisfaction among radiation oncology workers across New Zealand. All oncology staff practising in all eight radiation oncology departments in New Zealand were invited to participate anonymously in a questionnaire, which consisted of the Maslach Burnout Inventory and measures of stress intensity associated with specific occupational stressors, stress reduction strategies and job satisfaction. A total of 171 (out of 349) complete responses were analysed using spss 19; there were 23 oncologists, 111 radiation therapists, 22 radiation nurses and 15 radiation physicists. All participants, regardless of profession, reported high stress levels associated with both patient-centred and organisational stressors. Participants scored high in all three domains of burnout: emotional exhaustion, depersonalisation and personal accomplishment. Interestingly, although organisational stressors predicted higher emotional exhaustion and emotional exhaustion predicted lower job satisfaction, patient stressors were associated with higher job satisfaction. Job satisfaction initiatives such as ongoing education, mentoring and role extension were supported by many participants as was addressing organisational stressors, such as lack of recognition and support from management and unrealistic expectations and demands. New Zealand staff exhibit higher levels of burnout than Maslach Burnout Inventory medical norms and oncology workers in previous international studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

2013-12-01

Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea-level rise. To overcome these problems, we coupled regional sea-level rise projections with hurricane simulations and storm surge models to map coastal inundation for the current climate and the best and worst case climate scenarios of the IPCC AR4. With agency, NGO, and business partners, we have integrated these findings into coastal policy initiatives, including the first ever adoption of sea level Adaptation Action Areas in a Florida city land use plan.

Effect of Melt Convection at Various Gravity Levels and Orientations on the Forces Acting on a Large Spherical Particle in the Vicinity of a Solidification Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bune, Andris V.; Sen, Subhayu; Mukherjee, Sundeep; Catalina, Adrian; Stefanescu, Doru M.

2000-01-01

Numerical modeling was Undertaken to analyze the influence of both radial and axial thermal gradients on convection patterns and velocities claiming solidification of pure Al and an Al-4 wt% Cu alloy. The objective of the numerical task was to predict the influence of convective velocity on an insoluble particle near a solid/liquid (s/l) interface. These predictions were then be used to define the minimum gravity level (q) required to investigate the fundamental physics of interactions between a particle and a s/l interface. This is an ongoing NASA founded flight experiment entitled "particle engulfment and pushing by solidifying interfaces (PEP)". Steady-state calculations were performed for different gravity levels and orientations with respect to the gravity vector The furnace configuration used in this analysis is the quench module insert (QMI-1) proposed for the Material Science Research Facility (MSRF) on board the International Space Station (ISS). The general model of binary alloy solidification was based on the finite element code FIDAP. At a low g level of 10(exp -4) g(sub o) (g(sub o) = 9.8 m/square s) maximum melt convection was obtained for an orientation of 90 deg. Calculations showed that even for this worst case orientation the dominant forces acting on the particle are the fundamental drag and interfacial forces.

Lidar-Enhanced Wind Turbine Control: Past, Present, and Future: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scholbrock, Andrew; Fleming, Paul; Wright, Alan

2016-07-01

This paper will look at the development of lidar-enhanced controls and how they have been used for turbine load reduction with pitch actuation, as well as increased energy production with improved yaw control. Ongoing work will also be discussed to show that combining pitch and torque control using feedforward nonlinear model predictive control can lead to both reduced loads and increased energy production. Future work is also proposed on extending individual wind turbine controls to the wind plant level and determining how lidars can be used for control methods to further lower the cost of wind energy by minimizing wakemore » impacts in a wind farm.« less

Factors Affecting Retention Behavior: A Model To Predict At-Risk Students. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sadler, William E.; Cohen, Frederic L.; Kockesen, Levent

This paper describes a methodology used in an on-going retention study at New York University (NYU) to identify a series of easily measured factors affecting student departure decisions. Three logistic regression models for predicting student retention were developed, each containing data available at three distinct times during the first…

Maternal Characteristics Predicting Young Girls' Disruptive Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Molen, Elsa; Hipwell, Alison E.; Vermeiren, Robert; Loeber, Rolf

2011-01-01

Little is known about the relative predictive utility of maternal characteristics and parenting skills on the development of girls' disruptive behavior. The current study used five waves of parent- and child-report data from the ongoing Pittsburgh Girls Study to examine these relationships in a sample of 1,942 girls from age 7 to 12 years.…

Individualized cost-effective conventional ovulation induction treatment in normogonadotrophic anovulatory infertility (WHO group 2).

PubMed

Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Polinder, Suzanne; Mulders, Annemarie G M G J; Laven, Joop S E; Habbema, J Dik F; Fauser, Bart C J M

2005-10-01

Conventional treatment in normogonadotrophic anovulatory infertility (WHO 2) consists of clomiphene citrate (CC), followed by exogenous gonadotrophins (FSH) and IVF. Response to these treatments may be predicted on the basis of individual patient characteristics. We aimed to devise a patient-tailored, cost-effective treatment algorithm involving the above-mentioned treatment modalities, based on individual patient characteristics. Sixteen prognostic groups are defined, according to the presence or absence of: age >30 years, amenorrhea, elevated androgen levels and obesity. The chances of response with each of the three treatments were calculated using prediction models. Treatment costs were based on the data of 240 patients visiting a specialist academic fertility unit. Outcome was an ongoing pregnancy within 12 months after initiation of treatment. The costs per pregnancy of three different strategies were compared, with a threshold for cost-effectiveness of 10 000. The strategy CC + FSH + IVF compared with FSH + IVF generated more pregnancies against lower costs. Compared with CC + IVF, it also produced more pregnancies, but at higher costs. For <30 years of age with normal androgen levels, costs per pregnancy were less than 10 000. For women >30 years old, costs per pregnancy were 25 000 and over 200 000, when presenting with normal or elevated androgen levels, respectively. The conventional treatment protocol is efficient for women aged <30 years with normal androgen levels. For women >30 years old with elevated androgen levels, FSH may be skipped.

Perceptions of social capital and sexual behaviour among youth in South Africa.

PubMed

Odimegwu, Clifford; De Wet, Nicole; Somefun, Oluwaseyi Dolapo

2017-11-01

With about one quarter of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections occuring in young people, there is an on-going debate regarding the role of social capital on youth sexual behaviour. Some studies have suggested that high levels of family and community social capital may act as protective factors that lessen the likelihood of negative consequences; while others have concluded that social capital may be a risk factor for risky sexual behaviour among youth. Using data from the Third National Communications Survey (2012) conducted in South Africa, we examined the relationship between perceptions of social capital and youth sexual behaviour measured by age at first sex and condom use among 3 399 males and females (aged between 16 and 24 years). We assessed community perceptions of social capital with questions that measured trust, social participation, and support. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to predict the risk for early sexual debut. Logistic regression was used to predict the odds of condom use. There was no association between perceptions of social capital and youth sexual behaviour. This work reveals that youth sexual behaviour in South Africa may be influenced by socio-economic characteristics, especially at the individual level.

Does endometrial integrin expression in endometriosis patients predict enhanced in vitro fertilization cycle outcomes after prolonged GnRH agonist therapy?

PubMed

Surrey, Eric S; Lietz, Annette K; Gustofson, Robert L; Minjarez, Debra A; Schoolcraft, William B

2010-02-01

To determine whether endometrial expression of the integrin alpha(v)beta(3) vitronectin can predict which endometriosis patient subgroup will benefit from pre-IVF cycle prolonged GnRH agonist (GnRHa) therapy. Prospective randomized institutional review board approved pilot trial. Private assisted reproductive technology program. IVF candidates with regular menses, surgically confirmed endometriosis, and normal ovarian reserve. All patients underwent endometrial biopsy 9 to 11 days post-LH surge to evaluate alpha(v)beta(3) integrin expression. Patients were randomized either to receive depot leuprolide acetate 3.75 mg every 28 days for three doses before controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) or to proceed directly to COH and IVF. Group 1: integrin-positive controls (N = 12); group 2: integrin-positive administered prolonged GnRHa (N = 8). Group A: integrin-negative controls (N = 7); group B: integrin-negative administered prolonged GnRHa (N = 9). COH responses, ongoing pregnancy and implantation rates. There were no significant effects of GnRH agonist treatment in either of the integrin expression strata regarding ongoing pregnancy or implantation rates, although these outcomes were more frequent in group 2 vs. 1 (62.5% vs. 41.6% and 35% vs. 20.6%, respectively). This effect may have because of limited sample size. The value of a negative integrin biopsy in predicting an ongoing pregnancy after prolonged GnRH agonist therapy was only 44.4%. Endometrial alpha(v)beta(3) integrin expression did not predict which endometriosis patients would benefit from prolonged GnRHa therapy before IVF. Copyright 2010 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discriminant analysis forecasting model of first trimester pregnancy outcomes developed by following 9,963 infertile patients after in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Yi, Yan; Li, Xihong; Ouyang, Yan; Lin, Ge; Lu, Guangxiu; Gong, Fei

2016-05-01

To investigate a forecasting method developed to predict first trimester pregnancy outcomes using the first routine ultrasound scan for early pregnancy on days 27-29 after ET and to determine whether to perform a repeated scan several days later based on this forecasting method. Prospective analysis. Infertile patients at an assisted reproductive technology center. A total of 9,963 patients with an early singleton pregnancy after in vitro fertilization (IVF)-ET. None. Ongoing pregnancy >12 weeks of gestation. The classification score of ongoing pregnancy was equal to (1.57 × Maternal age) + (1.01 × Mean sac diameter) + (-0.19 × Crown-rump length) + 25.15 (if cardiac activity is present) + 1.30 (if intrauterine hematomas are present) - 47.35. The classification score of early pregnancy loss was equal to (1.66 × Maternal age) + (0.84 × Mean sac diameter) + (-0.38 × Crown-rump length) + 8.69 (if cardiac activity is present) + 1.60 (if intrauterine hematomas are present) - 34.77. In verification samples, 94.44% of cases were correctly classified using these forecasting models. The discriminant forecasting models are accurate in predicting first trimester pregnancy outcomes based on the first scan for early pregnancy after ET. When the predictive result is ongoing pregnancy, a second scan can be postponed until 11-14 weeks if no symptoms of abdominal pain or vaginal bleeding are present. When the predictive results suggest early pregnancy loss, repeated scans are imperative to avoid a misdiagnosis before evacuating the uterus. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical description of cavitation on axisymmetric bodies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hickox, C.E.; Hailey, C.E.; Wolfe, W.P.

1988-01-01

This paper reports on ongoing studies which are directed toward the development of predictive techniques for the modeling of steady cavitation on axisymmetric bodies. The primary goal of the modeling effort is the prediction of cavity shape and pressure distribution from which forces and moments can be calculated. Here we present an overview of the modeling techniques developed and compare predictions with experimental data obtained from water tunnel tests for both limited and supercavitation. 14 refs., 4 figs.

Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory.

PubMed

Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S

2015-01-01

Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning cue) for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioral and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views-the "Dynamic Multiprocess Framework" and the "Attention to Delayed Intention" (AtoDI) model-confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

Climate warming promotes species diversity, but with greater taxonomic redundancy, in complex environments

PubMed Central

Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Purschke, Oliver; Ciobanu, Marcel; Cowles, Jane; Isbell, Forest; Wragg, Peter D.; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-01-01

Climate warming is predicted to alter species interactions, which could potentially lead to extinction events. However, there is an ongoing debate whether the effects of warming on biodiversity may be moderated by biodiversity itself. We tested warming effects on soil nematodes, one of the most diverse and abundant metazoans in terrestrial ecosystems, along a gradient of environmental complexity created by a gradient of plant species richness. Warming increased nematode species diversity in complex (16-species mixtures) plant communities (by ~36%) but decreased it in simple (monocultures) plant communities (by ~39%) compared to ambient temperature. Further, warming led to higher levels of taxonomic relatedness in nematode communities across all levels of plant species richness. Our results highlight both the need for maintaining species-rich plant communities to help offset detrimental warming effects and the inability of species-rich plant communities to maintain nematode taxonomic distinctness when warming occur. PMID:28740868

Progress and Challenges Associated with the Development of Ricin Toxin Subunit Vaccines

PubMed Central

Vance, David J.; Mantis, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

Summary The past several years have seen major advances in the development of a safe and efficacious ricin toxin vaccine, including the completion of two Phase I clinical trials with two different recombinant A subunit (RTA)-based vaccines: RiVax™ and RVEc™ adsorbed to aluminum salt adjuvant, as well as a non-human primate study demonstrating that parenteral immunization with RiVax elicits a serum antibody response that was sufficient to protect against a lethal dose aerosolized ricin exposure. One of the major obstacles moving forward is assessing vaccine efficacy in humans, when neither ricin-specific serum IgG endpoint titers nor toxin-neutralizing antibody levels are accepted as definitive predictors of protective immunity. In this review we summarize ongoing efforts to leverage recent advances in our understanding of RTA-antibody interactions at the structural level to develop novel assays to predict vaccine efficacy in humans. PMID:26998662

Progress and challenges associated with the development of ricin toxin subunit vaccines.

PubMed

Vance, David J; Mantis, Nicholas J

2016-09-01

The past several years have seen major advances in the development of a safe and efficacious ricin toxin vaccine, including the completion of two Phase I clinical trials with two different recombinant A subunit (RTA)-based vaccines: RiVax™ and RVEc™ adsorbed to aluminum salt adjuvant, as well as a non-human primate study demonstrating that parenteral immunization with RiVax elicits a serum antibody response that was sufficient to protect against a lethal dose aerosolized ricin exposure. One of the major obstacles moving forward is assessing vaccine efficacy in humans, when neither ricin-specific serum IgG endpoint titers nor toxin-neutralizing antibody levels are accepted as definitive predictors of protective immunity. In this review we summarize ongoing efforts to leverage recent advances in our understanding of RTA-antibody interactions at the structural level to develop novel assays to predict vaccine efficacy in humans.

Predictors of Dropout From Inpatient Substance Use Treatment: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Andersson, Helle Wessel; Steinsbekk, Aslak; Walderhaug, Espen; Otterholt, Eli; Nordfjærn, Trond

2018-01-01

Dropout from inpatient treatment for substance use disorder (SUD) is an ongoing challenge. The aim of this study was to identify demographic, substance use, and psychological factors that predict dropout from postdetoxification inpatient SUD treatment. A total of 454 patients from 5 inpatient SUD centers in Central Norway were consecutively included in this naturalistic, prospective cohort study. A total of 132 patients (28%) did not complete the planned treatment stay (dropped out). Cox regression analysis showed that higher levels of intrinsic motivation for changing personal substance use reduced the dropout risk (adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR]: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.79). Higher levels of mental distress were associated with an increased risk for dropout (adjHR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.11-1.97). The role of mental health and motivation in reducing dropout risk from inpatient SUD treatment should be targeted in future prospective intervention studies.

Bacterial antisense RNAs are mainly the product of transcriptional noise.

PubMed

Lloréns-Rico, Verónica; Cano, Jaime; Kamminga, Tjerko; Gil, Rosario; Latorre, Amparo; Chen, Wei-Hua; Bork, Peer; Glass, John I; Serrano, Luis; Lluch-Senar, Maria

2016-03-01

cis-Encoded antisense RNAs (asRNAs) are widespread along bacterial transcriptomes. However, the role of most of these RNAs remains unknown, and there is an ongoing discussion as to what extent these transcripts are the result of transcriptional noise. We show, by comparative transcriptomics of 20 bacterial species and one chloroplast, that the number of asRNAs is exponentially dependent on the genomic AT content and that expression of asRNA at low levels exerts little impact in terms of energy consumption. A transcription model simulating mRNA and asRNA production indicates that the asRNA regulatory effect is only observed above certain expression thresholds, substantially higher than physiological transcript levels. These predictions were verified experimentally by overexpressing nine different asRNAs in Mycoplasma pneumoniae. Our results suggest that most of the antisense transcripts found in bacteria are the consequence of transcriptional noise, arising at spurious promoters throughout the genome.

Bacterial antisense RNAs are mainly the product of transcriptional noise

PubMed Central

Lloréns-Rico, Verónica; Cano, Jaime; Kamminga, Tjerko; Gil, Rosario; Latorre, Amparo; Chen, Wei-Hua; Bork, Peer; Glass, John I.; Serrano, Luis; Lluch-Senar, Maria

2016-01-01

cis-Encoded antisense RNAs (asRNAs) are widespread along bacterial transcriptomes. However, the role of most of these RNAs remains unknown, and there is an ongoing discussion as to what extent these transcripts are the result of transcriptional noise. We show, by comparative transcriptomics of 20 bacterial species and one chloroplast, that the number of asRNAs is exponentially dependent on the genomic AT content and that expression of asRNA at low levels exerts little impact in terms of energy consumption. A transcription model simulating mRNA and asRNA production indicates that the asRNA regulatory effect is only observed above certain expression thresholds, substantially higher than physiological transcript levels. These predictions were verified experimentally by overexpressing nine different asRNAs in Mycoplasma pneumoniae. Our results suggest that most of the antisense transcripts found in bacteria are the consequence of transcriptional noise, arising at spurious promoters throughout the genome. PMID:26973873

Dystrophin quantification and clinical correlations in Becker muscular dystrophy: implications for clinical trials.

PubMed

Anthony, Karen; Cirak, Sebahattin; Torelli, Silvia; Tasca, Giorgio; Feng, Lucy; Arechavala-Gomeza, Virginia; Armaroli, Annarita; Guglieri, Michela; Straathof, Chiara S; Verschuuren, Jan J; Aartsma-Rus, Annemieke; Helderman-van den Enden, Paula; Bushby, Katherine; Straub, Volker; Sewry, Caroline; Ferlini, Alessandra; Ricci, Enzo; Morgan, Jennifer E; Muntoni, Francesco

2011-12-01

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is caused by mutations in the DMD gene that disrupt the open reading frame and prevent the full translation of its protein product, dystrophin. Restoration of the open reading frame and dystrophin production can be achieved by exon skipping using antisense oligonucleotides targeted to splicing elements. This approach aims to transform the Duchenne muscular dystrophy phenotype to that of the milder disorder, Becker muscular dystrophy, typically caused by in-frame dystrophin deletions that allow the production of an internally deleted but partially functional dystrophin. There is ongoing debate regarding the functional properties of the different internally deleted dystrophins produced by exon skipping for different mutations; more insight would be valuable to improve and better predict the outcome of exon skipping clinical trials. To this end, we have characterized the clinical phenotype of 17 patients with Becker muscular dystrophy harbouring in-frame deletions relevant to on-going or planned exon skipping clinical trials for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and correlated it to the levels of dystrophin, and dystrophin-associated protein expression. The cohort of 17 patients, selected exclusively on the basis of their genotype, included 4 asymptomatic, 12 mild and 1 severe patient. All patients had dystrophin levels of >40% of control and significantly higher dystrophin (P = 0.013), β-dystroglycan (P = 0.025) and neuronal nitric oxide synthase (P = 0.034) expression was observed in asymptomatic individuals versus symptomatic patients with Becker muscular dystrophy. Furthermore, grouping the patients by deletion, patients with Becker muscular dystrophy with deletions with an end-point of exon 51 (the skipping of which could rescue the largest group of Duchenne muscular dystrophy deletions) showed significantly higher dystrophin levels (P = 0.034) than those with deletions ending with exon 53. This is the first quantitative study on both dystrophin and dystrophin-associated protein expression in patients with Becker muscular dystrophy with deletions relevant for on-going exon skipping trials in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Taken together, our results indicate that all varieties of internally deleted dystrophin assessed in this study have the functional capability to provide a substantial clinical benefit to patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Dystrophin quantification and clinical correlations in Becker muscular dystrophy: implications for clinical trials

PubMed Central

Anthony, Karen; Cirak, Sebahattin; Torelli, Silvia; Tasca, Giorgio; Feng, Lucy; Arechavala-Gomeza, Virginia; Armaroli, Annarita; Guglieri, Michela; Straathof, Chiara S.; Verschuuren, Jan J.; Aartsma-Rus, Annemieke; Helderman-van den Enden, Paula; Bushby, Katherine; Straub, Volker; Sewry, Caroline; Ferlini, Alessandra; Ricci, Enzo; Morgan, Jennifer E.

2011-01-01

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is caused by mutations in the DMD gene that disrupt the open reading frame and prevent the full translation of its protein product, dystrophin. Restoration of the open reading frame and dystrophin production can be achieved by exon skipping using antisense oligonucleotides targeted to splicing elements. This approach aims to transform the Duchenne muscular dystrophy phenotype to that of the milder disorder, Becker muscular dystrophy, typically caused by in-frame dystrophin deletions that allow the production of an internally deleted but partially functional dystrophin. There is ongoing debate regarding the functional properties of the different internally deleted dystrophins produced by exon skipping for different mutations; more insight would be valuable to improve and better predict the outcome of exon skipping clinical trials. To this end, we have characterized the clinical phenotype of 17 patients with Becker muscular dystrophy harbouring in-frame deletions relevant to on-going or planned exon skipping clinical trials for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and correlated it to the levels of dystrophin, and dystrophin-associated protein expression. The cohort of 17 patients, selected exclusively on the basis of their genotype, included 4 asymptomatic, 12 mild and 1 severe patient. All patients had dystrophin levels of >40% of control and significantly higher dystrophin (P = 0.013), β-dystroglycan (P = 0.025) and neuronal nitric oxide synthase (P = 0.034) expression was observed in asymptomatic individuals versus symptomatic patients with Becker muscular dystrophy. Furthermore, grouping the patients by deletion, patients with Becker muscular dystrophy with deletions with an end-point of exon 51 (the skipping of which could rescue the largest group of Duchenne muscular dystrophy deletions) showed significantly higher dystrophin levels (P = 0.034) than those with deletions ending with exon 53. This is the first quantitative study on both dystrophin and dystrophin-associated protein expression in patients with Becker muscular dystrophy with deletions relevant for on-going exon skipping trials in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Taken together, our results indicate that all varieties of internally deleted dystrophin assessed in this study have the functional capability to provide a substantial clinical benefit to patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. PMID:22102647

The testosterone conundrum: The putative relationship between testosterone levels and prostate cancer.

PubMed

Loughlin, Kevin R

2016-11-01

The controversy surrounding the relationship between testosterone and prostate cancer has existed for decades. The literature surrounding this topic is confusing and at times contradictory. There is no level-one quality evidence that confirms or refutes the relationship between either high or low serum testosterone levels and the subsequent development of prostate cancer. This commentary aims to review the issues involved and to provide an interpretation as to the causes of the confusion and to provide a framework for ongoing discussion and investigation. A Medline and PubMed search was conducted using search terms: testosterone levels and prostate cancer to identify pertinent literature. There is no consistent evidence that a single testosterone level is predictive of prostate cancer risk. The development of prostate cancer is a complex biologic process potentially involving genetics,dietary, life style and hormonal factors. Serum testosterone levels do not accurately reflect the internal prostatic milieu. Finally, if testosterone levels are to be considered in the etiology of prostate cancer they should be measured and interpreted on a chronic basis with multiple measurements over a period of years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High expression of AID and active class switch recombination might account for a more aggressive disease in unmutated CLL patients: link with an activated microenvironment in CLL disease.

PubMed

Palacios, Florencia; Moreno, Pilar; Morande, Pablo; Abreu, Cecilia; Correa, Agustín; Porro, Valentina; Landoni, Ana Ines; Gabus, Raul; Giordano, Mirta; Dighiero, Guillermo; Pritsch, Otto; Oppezzo, Pablo

2010-06-03

Interaction of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) B cells with tissue microenvironment has been suggested to favor disease progression by promoting malignant B-cell growth. Previous work has shown expression in peripheral blood (PB) of CLL B cells of activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID) among CLL patients with an unmutated (UM) profile of immunoglobulin genes and with ongoing class switch recombination (CSR) process. Because AID expression results from interaction with activated tissue microenvironment, we speculated whether the small subset with ongoing CSR is responsible for high levels of AID expression and could be derived from this particular microenvironment. In this work, we quantified AID expression and ongoing CSR in PB of 50 CLL patients and characterized the expression of different molecules related to microenvironment interaction. Our results show that among UM patients (1) high AID expression is restricted to the subpopulation of tumoral cells ongoing CSR; (2) this small subset expresses high levels of proliferation, antiapoptotic and progression markers (Ki-67, c-myc, Bcl-2, CD49d, and CCL3/4 chemokines). Overall, this work outlines the importance of a cellular subset in PB of UM CLL patients with a poor clinical outcome, high AID levels, and ongoing CSR, whose presence might be a hallmark of a recent contact with the microenvironment.

Climate-based species distribution models for Armillaria solidipes in Wyoming: A preliminary assessment

Treesearch

John W. Hanna; James T. Blodgett; Eric W. I. Pitman; Sarah M. Ashiglar; John E. Lundquist; Mee-Sook Kim; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Ned B. Klopfenstein

2014-01-01

As part of an ongoing project to predict Armillaria root disease in the Rocky Mountain zone, this project predicts suitable climate space (potential distribution) for A. solidipes in Wyoming and associated forest areas at risk to disease caused by this pathogen. Two bioclimatic models are being developed. One model is based solely on verified locations of A. solidipes...

Contribution of Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies to the Ongoing California Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Apps, D.; Arcand, S. E.

2015-12-01

The ongoing multiyear drought over California is a major concern for the residents of the golden state as it brings water restrictions in preparing for water shortages and wild fires due to dry and hot conditions. Both positive temperature and negative precipitation anomalies can contribute to drought developments, but how important are these anomalies for the ongoing California drought? Using the VIC hydrological model, this study investigated the relative contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the ongoing 2011-2015 drought in comparison with another multiyear drought between 1987 and 1992 over the same region. By swapping the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies between two drought events, the study was able to show how temperature and precipitation anomalies and their spatial variability affect other elements of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow, thus the severity of the drought. The comparison between these two events helps to reveal the unique characteristics of the current drought and provides useful insights for drought prediction and mitigation.

Accurate prediction of pregnancy viability by means of a simple scoring system.

PubMed

Bottomley, Cecilia; Van Belle, Vanya; Kirk, Emma; Van Huffel, Sabine; Timmerman, Dirk; Bourne, Tom

2013-01-01

What is the performance of a simple scoring system to predict whether women will have an ongoing viable intrauterine pregnancy beyond the first trimester? A simple scoring system using demographic and initial ultrasound variables accurately predicts pregnancy viability beyond the first trimester with an area under the curve (AUC) in a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.924 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.900-0.947] on an independent test set. Individual demographic and ultrasound factors, such as maternal age, vaginal bleeding and gestational sac size, are strong predictors of miscarriage. Previous mathematical models have combined individual risk factors with reasonable performance. A simple scoring system derived from a mathematical model that can be easily implemented in clinical practice has not previously been described for the prediction of ongoing viability. This was a prospective observational study in a single early pregnancy assessment centre during a 9-month period. A cohort of 1881 consecutive women undergoing transvaginal ultrasound scan at a gestational age <84 days were included. Women were excluded if the first trimester outcome was not known. Demographic features, symptoms and ultrasound variables were tested for their influence on ongoing viability. Logistic regression was used to determine the influence on first trimester viability from demographics and symptoms alone, ultrasound findings alone and then from all the variables combined. Each model was developed on a training data set, and a simple scoring system was derived from this. This scoring system was tested on an independent test data set. The final outcome based on a total of 1435 participants was an ongoing viable pregnancy in 885 (61.7%) and early pregnancy loss in 550 (38.3%) women. The scoring system using significant demographic variables alone (maternal age and amount of bleeding) to predict ongoing viability gave an AUC of 0.724 (95% CI = 0.692-0.756) in the training set and 0.729 (95% CI = 0.684-0.774) in the test set. The scoring system using significant ultrasound variables alone (mean gestation sac diameter, mean yolk sac diameter and the presence of fetal heart beat) gave an AUC of 0.873 (95% CI = 0.850-0.897) and 0.900 (95% CI = 0.871-0.928) in the training and the test sets, respectively. The final scoring system using demographic and ultrasound variables together gave an AUC of 0.901 (95% CI = 0.881-0.920) and 0.924 (CI = 0.900-0.947) in the training and the test sets, respectively. After defining the cut-off at which the sensitivity is 0.90 on the training set, this model performed with a sensitivity of 0.92, specificity of 0.73, positive predictive value of 84.7% and negative predictive value of 85.4% in the test set. BMI and smoking variables were a potential omission in the data collection and might further improve the model performance if included. A further limitation is the absence of information on either bleeding or pain in 18% of women. Caution should be exercised before implementation of this scoring system prior to further external validation studies This simple scoring system incorporates readily available data that are routinely collected in clinical practice and does not rely on complex data entry. As such it could, unlike most mathematical models, be easily incorporated into normal early pregnancy care, where women may appreciate an individualized calculation of the likelihood of ongoing pregnancy viability. Research by V.V.B. supported by Research Council KUL: GOA MaNet, PFV/10/002 (OPTEC), several PhD/postdoc & fellow grants; IWT: TBM070706-IOTA3, PhD Grants; IBBT; Belgian Federal Science Policy Office: IUAP P7/(DYSCO, `Dynamical systems, control and optimization', 2012-2017). T.B. is supported by the Imperial Healthcare NHS Trust NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. Not applicable.

The impact of ongoing national terror on the community of hospital nurses in Israel.

PubMed

Ron, Pnina; Shamai, Michal

2014-04-01

The main goal of this study was to explore the connections between the exposure of nurses in Israel to national terror and the levels of distress experienced due to ongoing terror attacks. The data were collected from 214 nurses from various parts of Israel who work in three types of heath services (mainly hospital departments) and provide help to victims of terror. The nurses reported very high levels of burnout, high levels of stress and medium-to high levels of intrusive memories. Levels of exposure were associated with burnout, intrusive memories and level of stress. More professional attention should be given to hospital nurses who provide care for trauma patients.

Bone mineral density before and after OLT: long-term follow-up and predictive factors.

PubMed

Guichelaar, Maureen M J; Kendall, Rebecca; Malinchoc, Michael; Hay, J Eileen

2006-09-01

Fracturing after liver transplantation (OLT) occurs due to the combination of preexisting low bone mineral density (BMD) and early posttransplant bone loss, the risk factors for which are poorly defined. The prevalence and predictive factors for hepatic osteopenia and osteoporosis, posttransplant bone loss, and subsequent bone gain were studied by the long-term posttransplant follow-up of 360 consecutive adult patients with end-stage primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Only 20% of patients with advanced PBC or PSC have normal bone mass. Risk factors for low spinal BMD are low body mass index, older age, postmenopausal status, muscle wasting, high alkaline phosphatase and low serum albumin. A high rate of spinal bone loss occurred in the first 4 posttransplant months (annual rate of 16%) especially in those with younger age, PSC, higher pretransplant bone density, no inflammatory bowel disease, shorter duration of liver disease, current smoking, and ongoing cholestasis at 4 months. Factors favoring spinal bone gain from 4 to 24 months after transplantation were lower baseline and/or 4-month bone density, premenopausal status, lower cumulative glucocorticoids, no ongoing cholestasis, and higher levels of vitamin D and parathyroid hormone. Bone mass therefore improves most in patients with lowest pretransplant BMD who undergo successful transplantation with normal hepatic function and improved gonadal and nutritional status. Patients transplanted most recently have improved bone mass before OLT, and although bone loss still occurs early after OLT, these patients also have a greater recovery in BMD over the years following OLT.

Tracking Deceased-Related Thinking with Neural Pattern Decoding of a Cortical-Basal Ganglia Circuit.

PubMed

Schneck, Noam; Haufe, Stefan; Tu, Tao; Bonanno, George A; Ochsner, Kevin; Sajda, Paul; Mann, J John

2017-07-01

Deceased-related thinking is central to grieving and potentially critical to processing of the loss. Self-report measurements might fail to capture important elements of deceased-related thinking and processing. Here, we used a machine learning approach applied to fMRI - known as neural decoding - to develop a measure of ongoing deceased-related processing. 23 subjects grieving the loss of a first-degree relative, spouse or partner within 14 months underwent two fMRI tasks. They first viewed pictures and stories related to the deceased, a living control and a demographic control figure while providing ongoing valence and arousal ratings. Second, they performed a 10-minute Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART) with thought probes every 25-35 seconds to identify deceased, living and self-related thoughts. A conjunction analysis, controlling for valence/arousal, identified neural clusters in basal ganglia, orbital prefrontal cortex and insula associated with both types of deceased-related stimuli vs. the two control conditions in the first task. This pattern was applied to fMRI data collected during the SART, and discriminated deceased-related but not living or self-related thoughts, independently of grief-severity and time since loss. Deceased-related thoughts on the SART correlated with self-reported avoidance. The neural model predicted avoidance over and above deceased-related thoughts. A neural pattern trained to identify mental representations of the deceased tracked deceased-related thinking during a sustained attention task and also predicted subject-level avoidance. This approach provides a new imaging tool to be used as an index of processing the deceased for future studies of complicated grief.

The Traditional Model Does Not Explain Attitudes Toward Euthanasia: A Web-Based Survey of the General Public in Finland.

PubMed

Terkamo-Moisio, Anja; Kvist, Tarja; Laitila, Teuvo; Kangasniemi, Mari; Ryynänen, Olli-Pekka; Pietilä, Anna-Maija

2017-08-01

The debate about euthanasia is ongoing in several countries including Finland. However, there is a lack of information on current attitudes toward euthanasia among general Finnish public. The traditional model for predicting individuals' attitudes to euthanasia is based on their age, gender, educational level, and religiosity. However, a new evaluation of religiosity is needed due to the limited operationalization of this factor in previous studies. This study explores the connections between the factors of the traditional model and the attitudes toward euthanasia among the general public in the Finnish context. The Finnish public's attitudes toward euthanasia have become remarkably more positive over the last decade. Further research is needed on the factors that predict euthanasia attitudes. We suggest two different explanatory models for consideration: one that emphasizes the value of individual autonomy and another that approaches euthanasia from the perspective of fears of death or the process of dying.

Dynamo threshold detection in the von Kármán sodium experiment.

PubMed

Miralles, Sophie; Bonnefoy, Nicolas; Bourgoin, Mickael; Odier, Philippe; Pinton, Jean-François; Plihon, Nicolas; Verhille, Gautier; Boisson, Jean; Daviaud, François; Dubrulle, Bérengère

2013-07-01

Predicting dynamo self-generation in liquid metal experiments has been an ongoing question for many years. In contrast to simple dynamical systems for which reliable techniques have been developed, the ability to predict the dynamo capacity of a flow and the estimate of the corresponding critical value of the magnetic Reynolds number (the control parameter of the instability) has been elusive, partly due to the high level of turbulent fluctuations of flows in such experiments (with kinetic Reynolds numbers in excess of 10(6)). We address these issues here, using the von Kármán sodium experiment and studying its response to an externally applied magnetic field. We first show that a dynamo threshold can be estimated from analysis related to critical slowing down and susceptibility divergence, in configurations for which dynamo action is indeed observed. These approaches are then applied to flow configurations that have failed to self-generate magnetic fields within operational limits, and we quantify the dynamo capacity of these configurations.

Assessing the Importance of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Steering Currents in Anticipating Landfall Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truchelut, R.; Hart, R. E.

2013-12-01

While a number of research groups offer quantitative pre-seasonal assessments of aggregate annual Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity, the literature is comparatively thin concerning methods to meaningfully quantify seasonal U.S. landfall risks. As the example of Hurricane Andrew impacting Southeast Florida in the otherwise quiet 1992 season demonstrates, an accurate probabilistic assessment of seasonal tropical cyclone threat levels would be of immense public utility and economic value; however, the methods used to predict annual activity demonstrate little skill for predicting annual count of landfalling systems of any intensity bin. Therefore, while current models are optimized to predict cumulative seasonal tropical cyclone activity, they are not ideal tools for assessing the potential for sensible impacts of storms on populated areas. This research aims to bridge the utility gap in seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting by shifting the focus of seasonal modelling to the parameters that are most closely linked to creating conditions favorable for U.S. landfalls, particularly those of destructive and costly intense hurricanes. As it is clear from the initial findings of this study that overall activity has a limited influence on sensible outcomes, this project concentrates on detecting predictability and trends in cyclogenesis location and upper-level wind steering patterns. These metrics are demonstrated to have a relationship with landfall activity in the Atlantic Basin climatological record. By aggregating historic seasonally-averaged steering patterns using newly-available reanalysis model datasets, some atmospheric and oceanic precursors to an elevated risk of North American tropical cyclone landfall have been identified. Work is ongoing to quantify the variance, persistence, and predictability of such patterns over seasonal timescales, with the aim of yielding tools that could be incorporated into tropical cyclone risk mitigation strategies.

The balanced mind: the variability of task-unrelated thoughts predicts error monitoring

PubMed Central

Allen, Micah; Smallwood, Jonathan; Christensen, Joanna; Gramm, Daniel; Rasmussen, Beinta; Jensen, Christian Gaden; Roepstorff, Andreas; Lutz, Antoine

2013-01-01

Self-generated thoughts unrelated to ongoing activities, also known as “mind-wandering,” make up a substantial portion of our daily lives. Reports of such task-unrelated thoughts (TUTs) predict both poor performance on demanding cognitive tasks and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) activity in the default mode network (DMN). However, recent findings suggest that TUTs and the DMN can also facilitate metacognitive abilities and related behaviors. To further understand these relationships, we examined the influence of subjective intensity, ruminative quality, and variability of mind-wandering on response inhibition and monitoring, using the Error Awareness Task (EAT). We expected to replicate links between TUT and reduced inhibition, and explored whether variance in TUT would predict improved error monitoring, reflecting a capacity to balance between internal and external cognition. By analyzing BOLD responses to subjective probes and the EAT, we dissociated contributions of the DMN, executive, and salience networks to task performance. While both response inhibition and online TUT ratings modulated BOLD activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) of the DMN, the former recruited a more dorsal area implying functional segregation. We further found that individual differences in mean TUTs strongly predicted EAT stop accuracy, while TUT variability specifically predicted levels of error awareness. Interestingly, we also observed co-activation of salience and default mode regions during error awareness, supporting a link between monitoring and TUTs. Altogether our results suggest that although TUT is detrimental to task performance, fluctuations in attention between self-generated and external task-related thought is a characteristic of individuals with greater metacognitive monitoring capacity. Achieving a balance between internally and externally oriented thought may thus aid individuals in optimizing their task performance. PMID:24223545

RNA-Puzzles: A CASP-like evaluation of RNA three-dimensional structure prediction

PubMed Central

Cruz, José Almeida; Blanchet, Marc-Frédérick; Boniecki, Michal; Bujnicki, Janusz M.; Chen, Shi-Jie; Cao, Song; Das, Rhiju; Ding, Feng; Dokholyan, Nikolay V.; Flores, Samuel Coulbourn; Huang, Lili; Lavender, Christopher A.; Lisi, Véronique; Major, François; Mikolajczak, Katarzyna; Patel, Dinshaw J.; Philips, Anna; Puton, Tomasz; Santalucia, John; Sijenyi, Fredrick; Hermann, Thomas; Rother, Kristian; Rother, Magdalena; Serganov, Alexander; Skorupski, Marcin; Soltysinski, Tomasz; Sripakdeevong, Parin; Tuszynska, Irina; Weeks, Kevin M.; Waldsich, Christina; Wildauer, Michael; Leontis, Neocles B.; Westhof, Eric

2012-01-01

We report the results of a first, collective, blind experiment in RNA three-dimensional (3D) structure prediction, encompassing three prediction puzzles. The goals are to assess the leading edge of RNA structure prediction techniques; compare existing methods and tools; and evaluate their relative strengths, weaknesses, and limitations in terms of sequence length and structural complexity. The results should give potential users insight into the suitability of available methods for different applications and facilitate efforts in the RNA structure prediction community in ongoing efforts to improve prediction tools. We also report the creation of an automated evaluation pipeline to facilitate the analysis of future RNA structure prediction exercises. PMID:22361291

77 FR 53225 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-31

... meeting, the Council will receive briefings on: ongoing and planned work with social and behavioral... below), and will be posted to the web site (above) when finalized. In order to ensure sufficient seating...

Metabolic theory predicts animal self-thinning.

PubMed

Jonsson, Tomas

2017-05-01

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) predicts observed patterns in ecology based on metabolic rates of individuals. The theory is influential but also criticized for a lack of firm empirical evidence confirming MTE's quantitative predictions of processes, e.g. outcome of competition, at population or community level. Self-thinning is a well-known population level phenomenon among plants, but a much less studied phenomenon in animal populations and no consensus exists on what a universal thinning slope for animal populations might be, or if it exists. The goal of this study was to use animal self-thinning as a tool to test population-level predictions from MTE, by analysing (i) if self-thinning can be induced in populations of house crickets (Acheta domesticus) and (ii) if the resulting thinning trajectories can be predicted from metabolic theory, using estimates of the species-specific metabolic rate of A. domesticus. I performed a laboratory study where the growth of A. domesticus was followed, from hatching until emergence as adults, in 71 cohorts of five different starting densities. Ninety-six per cent of all cohorts in the three highest starting densities showed evidence of self-thinning, with estimated thinning slopes in general being remarkably close to that expected under metabolic constraints: A cross-sectional analysis of all data showing evidence of self-thinning produced an ordinary least square (OLS) slope of -1·11, exactly that predicted from specific metabolic allometry of A. domesticus. This result is furthermore supported by longitudinal analyses, allowing for independent responses within cohorts, producing a mean OLS slope across cohorts of -1·13 and a fixed effect linear mixed effects models slope of -1·09. Sensitivity analysis showed that these results are robust to how the criterion for on-going self-thinning was defined. Finally, also as predicted by metabolic theory, temperature had a negative effect on the thinning intercept, producing an estimate of the activation energy identical to that suggested by MTE. This study demonstrates a direct link between the metabolic rate of individuals and a population-level ecological process and as such provides strong support for research that aims to integrate body mass, via its effect on metabolism, consumption and competition, into models of populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Biochemical, endocrine, and hematological factors in human oxygen tolerance extension: Predictive studies 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambertsen, C. J.; Clark, J. M.

1992-01-01

The Predictive Studies VI (Biochemical, endocrine, and hematological factors in human oxygen tolerance extension) Program consisted of two related areas of research activity, integrated in design and performance, that were each based on an ongoing analysis of human organ oxygen tolerance data obtained for the continuous oxygen exposures of the prior Predictive Studies V Program. The two research areas effectively blended broad investigation of systematically varied intermittent exposure patterns in animals with very selective evaluation of specific exposure patterns in man.

Repeatability and degree of territorial aggression differs among urban and rural great tits (Parus major).

PubMed

Hardman, Samuel I; Dalesman, Sarah

2018-03-22

Animals in urban habitats face many novel selection pressures such as increased human population densities and human disturbance. This is predicted to favour bolder and more aggressive individuals together with greater flexibility in behaviour. Previous work has focussed primarily on studying these traits in captive birds and has shown increased aggression and reduced consistency between traits (behavioural syndromes) in birds from urban populations. However, personality (consistency within a behavioural trait) has not been well studied in the wild. Here we tested whether urban free-living male great tits show greater territorial aggression than rural counterparts. We also tested predictions that both behavioural syndromes and personality would show lower consistency in urban populations. We found that urban populations were more aggressive than rural populations and urban birds appeared to show lower levels of individual behavioural repeatability (personality) as predicted. However, we found no effect of urbanisation on behavioural syndromes (correlations between multiple behavioural traits). Our results indicate that urban environments may favour individuals which exhibit increased territorial aggression and greater within-trait flexibility which may be essential to success in holding urban territories. Determining how urban environments impact key fitness traits will be important in predicting how animals cope with ongoing urbanisation.

Causal Genetic Variation Underlying Metabolome Differences.

PubMed

Swain-Lenz, Devjanee; Nikolskiy, Igor; Cheng, Jiye; Sudarsanam, Priya; Nayler, Darcy; Staller, Max V; Cohen, Barak A

2017-08-01

An ongoing challenge in biology is to predict the phenotypes of individuals from their genotypes. Genetic variants that cause disease often change an individual's total metabolite profile, or metabolome. In light of our extensive knowledge of metabolic pathways, genetic variants that alter the metabolome may help predict novel phenotypes. To link genetic variants to changes in the metabolome, we studied natural variation in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae We used an untargeted mass spectrometry method to identify dozens of metabolite Quantitative Trait Loci (mQTL), genomic regions containing genetic variation that control differences in metabolite levels between individuals. We mapped differences in urea cycle metabolites to genetic variation in specific genes known to regulate amino acid biosynthesis. Our functional assays reveal that genetic variation in two genes, AUA1 and ARG81 , cause the differences in the abundance of several urea cycle metabolites. Based on knowledge of the urea cycle, we predicted and then validated a new phenotype: sensitivity to a particular class of amino acid isomers. Our results are a proof-of-concept that untargeted mass spectrometry can reveal links between natural genetic variants and metabolome diversity. The interpretability of our results demonstrates the promise of using genetic variants underlying natural differences in the metabolome to predict novel phenotypes from genotype. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Neurophysiological Basis of Sleep’s Function on Memory and Cognition

PubMed Central

Spencer, Rebecca M. C.

2013-01-01

A wealth of recent studies support a function of sleep on memory and cognitive processing. At a physiological level, sleep supports memory in a number of ways including neural replay and enhanced plasticity in the context of reduced ongoing input. This paper presents behavioral evidence for sleep’s role in selective remembering and forgetting of declarative memories, in generalization of these memories, and in motor skill consolidation. Recent physiological data reviewed suggests how these behavioral changes might be supported by sleep. Importantly, in reviewing these findings, an integrated view of how distinct sleep stages uniquely contribute to memory processing emerges. This model will be useful in developing future behavioral and physiological studies to test predictions that emerge. PMID:24600607

Circulating cell-derived microparticles as biomarkers in cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Thulin, Åsa; Christersson, Christina; Alfredsson, Jenny; Siegbahn, Agneta

2016-09-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a common cause of death, and a search for biomarkers for risk stratification is warranted. Elevated levels of cell-derived microparticles (MPs) are found in patients with CVD and in groups with risk factors for CVD. Subpopulations of MPs are promising biomarkers for improving risk prediction, as well as monitoring treatment. However, the field has been hampered by technical difficulties, and the ongoing development of sensitive standardized techniques is crucial for implementing MP analyses in the clinic. Large prospective studies are required to establish which MPs are of prognostic value in different patient groups. In this review, we discuss methodological challenges and progress in the field, as well as MP populations that are of interest for further clinical evaluation.

Ongoing behavior predicts perceptual report of interval duration

PubMed Central

Gouvêa, Thiago S.; Monteiro, Tiago; Soares, Sofia; Atallah, Bassam V.; Paton, Joseph J.

2014-01-01

The ability to estimate the passage of time is essential for adaptive behavior in complex environments. Yet, it is not known how the brain encodes time over the durations necessary to explain animal behavior. Under temporally structured reinforcement schedules, animals tend to develop temporally structured behavior, and interval timing has been suggested to be accomplished by learning sequences of behavioral states. If this is true, trial to trial fluctuations in behavioral sequences should be predictive of fluctuations in time estimation. We trained rodents in an duration categorization task while continuously monitoring their behavior with a high speed camera. Animals developed highly reproducible behavioral sequences during the interval being timed. Moreover, those sequences were often predictive of perceptual report from early in the trial, providing support to the idea that animals may use learned behavioral patterns to estimate the duration of time intervals. To better resolve the issue, we propose that continuous and simultaneous behavioral and neural monitoring will enable identification of neural activity related to time perception that is not explained by ongoing behavior. PMID:24672473

Sexual Orientation Self-Presentation Among Bisexual-Identified Women and Men: Patterns and Predictors.

PubMed

Mohr, Jonathan J; Jackson, Skyler D; Sheets, Raymond L

2017-07-01

Writing on the experiences of bisexual-identified people has highlighted the potential complexity of the ongoing process of deciding when and how to present one's sexual orientation identity to others (Rust, 2002). The two studies presented here were designed to contribute basic knowledge regarding self-presentation of sexual orientation among bisexual people. In Study 1, bisexual participants (N = 147) were less likely than their lesbian and gay (LG) peers (N = 191) to present their actual orientation to others, and more likely to present themselves as having a sexual orientation different from their actual orientation. These sexual orientation differences were explained by gender of romantic partner and uncertainty about one's sexual orientation. Sexual orientation differences also emerged in links between self-presentation and outness level. For example, bisexual participants who presented themselves as LG had relatively high everyday outness levels; in contrast, LG participants who presented themselves as bisexual had relatively low everyday outness levels. In Study 2, 240 bisexual women and men indicated their levels of outness as a sexual minority person (potentially including identification as gay, lesbian, queer) and specifically as bisexual. Outness was higher with respect to status as a sexual minority compared to status as bisexual; the magnitude of this difference was predicted by gender of romantic partner and uncertainty about one's sexual orientation. Moreover, even controlling for outness as a sexual minority person, well-being was predicted by outness as bisexual to family members.

Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers and Reserve Variables as Predictors of Future "Non-Cognitive" Outcomes of Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Ingber, Adam P; Hassenstab, Jason; Fagan, Anne M; Benzinger, Tammie L S; Grant, Elizabeth A; Holtzman, David M; Morris, John C; Roe, Catherine M

2016-01-01

The influence of reserve variables and Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers on cognitive test performance has been fairly well-characterized. However, less is known about the influence of these factors on "non-cognitive" outcomes, including functional abilities and mood. We examined whether cognitive and brain reserve variables mediate how AD biomarker levels in cognitively normal persons predict future changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior. Non-cognitive outcomes were examined in 328 individuals 50 years and older enrolled in ongoing studies of aging and dementia at the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center (ADRC). All participants were cognitively normal at baseline (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] 0), completed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and structural neuroimaging studies within one year of baseline, and were followed for an average of 4.6 annual visits. Linear mixed effects models explored how cognitive reserve and brain reserve variables mediate the relationships between AD biomarker levels and changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior in cognitively normal participants. Education levels did not have a significant effect on predicting non-cognitive decline. However, participants with smaller brain volumes exhibited the worst outcomes on measures of mood, functional abilities, and behavioral disturbance. This effect was most pronounced in individuals who also had abnormal CSF biomarkers. The findings suggest that brain reserve plays a stronger, or earlier, role than cognitive reserve in protecting against non-cognitive impairment in AD.

Skipping of Chinese characters does not rely on word-based processing.

PubMed

Lin, Nan; Angele, Bernhard; Hua, Huimin; Shen, Wei; Zhou, Junyi; Li, Xingshan

2018-02-01

Previous eye-movement studies have indicated that people tend to skip extremely high-frequency words in sentence reading, such as "the" in English and "/de" in Chinese. Two alternative hypotheses have been proposed to explain how this frequent skipping happens in Chinese reading: one assumes that skipping happens when the preview has been fully identified at the word level (word-based skipping); the other assumes that skipping happens whenever the preview character is easy to identify regardless of whether lexical processing has been completed or not (character-based skipping). Using the gaze-contingent display change paradigm, we examined the two hypotheses by substituting the preview of the third character of a four-character Chinese word with the high-frequency Chinese character "/de", which should disrupt the ongoing word-level processing. The character-based skipping hypothesis predicts that this manipulation will enhance the skipping probability of the target character (i.e., the third character of the target word), because the character "/de" has much higher character frequency than the original character. The word-based skipping hypothesis instead predicts a reduction of the skipping probability of the target character because the presence of the character "/de" is lexically infelicitous at word level. The results supported the character-based skipping hypothesis, indicating that in Chinese reading the decision of skipping a character can be made before integrating it into a word.

Investigation of mechanistic deterioration modeling for bridge design and management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

The ongoing deterioration of highway bridges in Colorado dictates that an effective method for allocating limited management resources be developed. In order to predict bridge deterioration in advance, mechanistic models that analyze the physical pro...

Update on ongoing tank car crashworthiness research : predicted performance and fabrication approach

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-04-22

Research is currently underway to develop strategies for maintaining the structural integrity of railroad tank cars carrying hazardous materials during collisions. This research, sponsored by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), has focused on ...

Dynamics of Multistable States during Ongoing and Evoked Cortical Activity

PubMed Central

Mazzucato, Luca

2015-01-01

Single-trial analyses of ensemble activity in alert animals demonstrate that cortical circuits dynamics evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Metastability has been studied for its potential role in sensory coding, memory, and decision-making. Yet, very little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for its genesis. It is often assumed that the onset of state sequences is triggered by an external stimulus. Here we show that state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation. Analysis of multielectrode recordings from the gustatory cortex of alert rats revealed ongoing sequences of states, where single neurons spontaneously attain several firing rates across different states. This single-neuron multistability represents a challenge to existing spiking network models, where typically each neuron is at most bistable. We present a recurrent spiking network model that accounts for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the multistability in single-neuron firing rates. Each state results from the activation of neural clusters with potentiated intracluster connections, with the firing rate in each cluster depending on the number of active clusters. Simulations show that the model's ensemble activity hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. When probed with external stimuli, the model predicts the quenching of single-neuron multistability into bistability and the reduction of trial-by-trial variability. Both predictions were confirmed in the data. Together, these results provide a theoretical framework that captures both ongoing and evoked network dynamics in a single mechanistic model. PMID:26019337

The NIEHS Predictive-Toxicology Evaluation Project.

PubMed Central

Bristol, D W; Wachsman, J T; Greenwell, A

1996-01-01

The Predictive-Toxicology Evaluation (PTE) project conducts collaborative experiments that subject the performance of predictive-toxicology (PT) methods to rigorous, objective evaluation in a uniquely informative manner. Sponsored by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, it takes advantage of the ongoing testing conducted by the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) to estimate the true error of models that have been applied to make prospective predictions on previously untested, noncongeneric-chemical substances. The PTE project first identifies a group of standardized NTP chemical bioassays either scheduled to be conducted or are ongoing, but not yet complete. The project then announces and advertises the evaluation experiment, disseminates information about the chemical bioassays, and encourages researchers from a wide variety of disciplines to publish their predictions in peer-reviewed journals, using whatever approaches and methods they feel are best. A collection of such papers is published in this Environmental Health Perspectives Supplement, providing readers the opportunity to compare and contrast PT approaches and models, within the context of their prospective application to an actual-use situation. This introduction to this collection of papers on predictive toxicology summarizes the predictions made and the final results obtained for the 44 chemical carcinogenesis bioassays of the first PTE experiment (PTE-1) and presents information that identifies the 30 chemical carcinogenesis bioassays of PTE-2, along with a table of prediction sets that have been published to date. It also provides background about the origin and goals of the PTE project, outlines the special challenge associated with estimating the true error of models that aspire to predict open-system behavior, and summarizes what has been learned to date. PMID:8933048

Photovoltaics: Reviewing the European Feed-in-Tariffs and Changing PV Efficiencies and Costs

PubMed Central

Zhang, H. L.; Van Gerven, T.; Baeyens, J.; Degrève, J.

2014-01-01

Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) mechanisms have been important in boosting renewable energy, by providing a long-term guaranteed subsidy of the kWh-price, thus mitigating investment risks and enhancing the contribution of sustainable electricity. By ongoing PV development, the contribution of solar power increases exponentially. Within this significant potential, it is important for investors, operators, and scientists alike to provide answers to different questions related to subsidies, PV efficiencies and costs. The present paper therefore (i) briefly reviews the mechanisms, advantages, and evolution of FiT; (ii) describes the developments of PV, (iii) applies a comprehensive literature-based model for the solar irradiation to predict the PV solar energy potential in some target European countries, whilst comparing output predictions with the monthly measured electricity generation of a 57 m² photovoltaic system (Belgium); and finally (iv) predicts the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) in terms of investment and efficiency, providing LCOE values between 0.149 and 0.313 €/kWh, as function of the overall process efficiency and cost. The findings clearly demonstrate the potential of PV energy in Europe, where FiT can be considerably reduced or even be eliminated in the near future. PMID:24959614

Soluble TWEAK independently predicts atherosclerosis in renal transplant patients

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular risk is increased in the early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and also found to be ongoing in renal transplant (Rtx) patients. As a sign of atherosclerosis, increased carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) has been widely accepted as a strong predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in CKD patients. A novel markers, soluble tumor necrosis factor-like weak inducer of apoptosis (sTWEAK) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were introduced as potential markers in inflammatory disorders including CKD. The role of Rtx in terms of atherogenesis is still unclear. We aimed to investigate the relationship between sTWEAK, NLR and CIMT in Rtx patients without overt CVD and to compare these results with those obtained from healthy subjects. Methods Cross-sectional analysis in which CIMT measurements, NLR and serum TWEAK levels were assessed in 70 Rtx patients (29 females; mean age, 40.6 ± 12.4 years) and 25 healthy subjects (13 females, mean age; 37.4±8.8 years). Results sTWEAK levels were significantly decreased (p=0.01) and hs-CRP, NLR and CIMT levels of Rtx patients were significantly increased compared to healthy subjects (p<0.0001, p=0.001, p<0.0001, respectively). sTWEAK was also found to be decreased when eGFR was decreased (p=0.04 between all groups). CIMT was positively correlated with sTWEAK and NLR in Rtx patients (r=0.81, p<0.0001 and r=0.33, p=0.006, respectively). sTWEAK was also positively correlated with NLR (r=0.37, p=0.002). In the multivariate analysis only sTWEAK was found to be an independent variable of increased CIMT. Conclusion sTWEAK might have a role in the pathogenesis of ongoing atherosclerosis in Rtx patients. PMID:23849432

Using acid insoluble ash marker ratios (diet:digesta) to predict digestibility of wheat and barley metabolizable energy and nitrogen retention in broiler chicks.

PubMed

Scott, T A; Hall, J W

1998-05-01

Routine bioassay measurements of AME or N retention of broiler diets require measurements of gross energy (GE) or N and an acid insoluble ash marker in diet, excreta, or ileal digesta. These measurements of GE and N are time-consuming and expensive in comparison to measurements of added or natural occurring levels of acid insoluble ash. Data from bioassay measurements of AME and N retention of 138 wheat and 97 barley samples (with or without enzyme) were used to develop prediction equations relying on measurements of one that uses acid insoluble ash of diet, excreta or ileal digesta and GE and N of diet only; and a second equation using only acid insoluble ash of diet, excreta, or ileal digesta. The prediction equations demonstrate that part of or all of routine bomb calorimetry measurements for GE used to determine AME of wheat- or barley-based diets could be eliminated if a prediction error of 80 kcal/kg ME or less were acceptable. The prediction of N retention as compared to AME, based in part or totally on acid insoluble ash measurements, was less accurate; the prediction errors were equal to 2.3 and 6.5% for wheat- and barley-based diets, respectively. Ongoing research to improve the determination (speed, ease, and accuracy) of acid insoluble ash could provide a useful method to assess feeding value of ingredients and commercial poultry diets.

Prediction and Observation of Post-Admission Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Ovesen, Christian; Havsteen, Inger; Rosenbaum, Sverre; Christensen, Hanne

2014-01-01

Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review radiological concepts in predicting and observing post-admission hematoma expansion. Hematoma expansion can be observed within the first 24 h after symptom onset, but predominantly occurs in the early hours. Thus capturing markers of on-going bleeding on imaging techniques could predict hematoma expansion. The spot sign observed on computed tomography angiography is believed to represent on-going bleeding and is to date the most well investigated and reliable radiological predictor of hematoma expansion as well as functional outcome and mortality. On non-contrast CT, the presence of foci of hypoattenuation within the hematoma along with the hematoma-size is reported to be predictive of hematoma expansion and outcome. Because patients tend to arrive earlier to the hospital, a larger fraction of acute ICH-patients must be expected to undergo hematoma expansion. This renders observation and radiological follow-up investigations increasingly relevant. Transcranial duplex sonography has in recent years proven to be able to estimate hematoma volume with good precision and could be a valuable tool in bedside serial observation of acute ICH-patients. Future studies will elucidate, if better prediction and observation of post-admission hematoma expansion can help select patients, who will benefit from hemostatic treatment. PMID:25324825

Stimuli Reduce the Dimensionality of Cortical Activity

PubMed Central

Mazzucato, Luca; Fontanini, Alfredo; La Camera, Giancarlo

2016-01-01

The activity of ensembles of simultaneously recorded neurons can be represented as a set of points in the space of firing rates. Even though the dimension of this space is equal to the ensemble size, neural activity can be effectively localized on smaller subspaces. The dimensionality of the neural space is an important determinant of the computational tasks supported by the neural activity. Here, we investigate the dimensionality of neural ensembles from the sensory cortex of alert rats during periods of ongoing (inter-trial) and stimulus-evoked activity. We find that dimensionality grows linearly with ensemble size, and grows significantly faster during ongoing activity compared to evoked activity. We explain these results using a spiking network model based on a clustered architecture. The model captures the difference in growth rate between ongoing and evoked activity and predicts a characteristic scaling with ensemble size that could be tested in high-density multi-electrode recordings. Moreover, we present a simple theory that predicts the existence of an upper bound on dimensionality. This upper bound is inversely proportional to the amount of pair-wise correlations and, compared to a homogeneous network without clusters, it is larger by a factor equal to the number of clusters. The empirical estimation of such bounds depends on the number and duration of trials and is well predicted by the theory. Together, these results provide a framework to analyze neural dimensionality in alert animals, its behavior under stimulus presentation, and its theoretical dependence on ensemble size, number of clusters, and correlations in spiking network models. PMID:26924968

Stimuli Reduce the Dimensionality of Cortical Activity.

PubMed

Mazzucato, Luca; Fontanini, Alfredo; La Camera, Giancarlo

2016-01-01

The activity of ensembles of simultaneously recorded neurons can be represented as a set of points in the space of firing rates. Even though the dimension of this space is equal to the ensemble size, neural activity can be effectively localized on smaller subspaces. The dimensionality of the neural space is an important determinant of the computational tasks supported by the neural activity. Here, we investigate the dimensionality of neural ensembles from the sensory cortex of alert rats during periods of ongoing (inter-trial) and stimulus-evoked activity. We find that dimensionality grows linearly with ensemble size, and grows significantly faster during ongoing activity compared to evoked activity. We explain these results using a spiking network model based on a clustered architecture. The model captures the difference in growth rate between ongoing and evoked activity and predicts a characteristic scaling with ensemble size that could be tested in high-density multi-electrode recordings. Moreover, we present a simple theory that predicts the existence of an upper bound on dimensionality. This upper bound is inversely proportional to the amount of pair-wise correlations and, compared to a homogeneous network without clusters, it is larger by a factor equal to the number of clusters. The empirical estimation of such bounds depends on the number and duration of trials and is well predicted by the theory. Together, these results provide a framework to analyze neural dimensionality in alert animals, its behavior under stimulus presentation, and its theoretical dependence on ensemble size, number of clusters, and correlations in spiking network models.

Predicting parenting stress in caregivers of children with brain tumours.

PubMed

Bennett, Emily; English, Martin William; Rennoldson, Michael; Starza-Smith, Arleta

2013-03-01

The purpose of the study was to identify factors that contribute to parenting stress in caregivers of children diagnosed with brain tumours. The study was cross-sectional and recruited 37 participants from a clinical database at a specialist children's hospital. Parents were sent questionnaires, which were used to measure factors related to stress in caregivers of children diagnosed with a brain tumour. Stress levels were measured using the Parenting Stress Index-Short Form (PSI/SF). Correlation analysis and multiple linear regression were used to examine the associations between parenting stress and coping styles, locus of control, parent-perceived child disability and time since diagnosis. Results revealed that 51% of parents were experiencing clinically significant levels of stress. The mean stress level of parents in the study was significantly higher than the PSI/SF norms (t = 4.7, p < .001). Regression analysis revealed that external locus of control and coping by accepting responsibility accounted for 67% of the variance in parenting stress. Other styles of coping, child behaviour problems and the amount of time since diagnosis were not found to be predictive of levels of parenting stress. There was a high prevalence of parenting stress in caregivers of children with a brain tumour. An external locus of control and coping by accepting responsibility increased the likelihood of elevated levels of stress. Results emphasised the importance of ongoing support for parents of children with brain tumours. Intervention might helpfully be centred on strategies to increase parents' internal locus of control. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling Wind Wave Evolution from Deep to Shallow Water

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

results are very promising (see Figure 2). However, for the sake of efficiency, non-hydrostatic models assume a single-valued free surface in the...1996) are ongoing. Figure 3 Smoothed-Particle Hydrodynamics ( SPH ) simulations of waves breaking over an artificial reef in the laboratory (see... surface as predicted by the SPH model (see Dalrymple & Rogers, 2006). The agreement in the breaker dynamics predicted by the model and seen in the

The Impact of Water Loading on Estimates of Postglacial Decay Times in Hudson Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, H. K.; Gomez, N. A.

2016-12-01

Ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to surface loading (ice and water) variations since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been contributing to sea level changes globally throughout the Holocene, especially in regions like the Canada that were heavily glaciated during the LGM. The spatial and temporal distribution of GIA and relative sea level change are attributed to the ice history and the rheological structure of the solid Earth, both of which are uncertain. It has been shown that relative sea level curves in previously glaciated regions follow an exponential-like form, and the post glacial decay times associated with that form have weak sensitivity to the details of the ice loading history (Andrews 1970, Walcott 1980, Mitrovica & Peltier 1995). Post glacial decay time estimates may therefore be used to constrain the Earth's structure and improve GIA predictions. However, estimates of decay times in Hudson Bay in the literature differ significantly due to a number of sources of uncertainty and bias (Mitrovica et al. 2000). Previous decay time analyses have not considered the potential bias that surface loading associated with Holocene sea level changes can introduce in decay time estimates derived from nearby relative sea level observations. We explore the spatial patterns of post glacial decay time predictions in previously glaciated regions, and their sensitivity to ice and water loading history. We compute post glacial sea level changes over the last deglaciation from 21ka to the modern associated with the ICE5G (Peltier, 2004) and ICE6G (Argus et al. 2014, Peltier et al. 2015) ice history models. We fit exponential curves to the modeled relative sea level changes, and compute maps of post glacial decay time predictions across North America and the Arctic. In addition, we decompose the modeled relative sea level changes into contributions from water and ice loading effects, and compute the impact of water loading redistribution since the LGM on present day decay times. We show that Holocene water loading in the Hudson Bay may introduce significant bias in decay time estimates and we highlight locations where biases are minimized.

Life prediction of turbine components: On-going studies at the NASA Lewis Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spera, D. A.; Grisaffe, S. J.

1973-01-01

An overview is presented of the many studies at NASA-Lewis that form the turbine component life prediction program. This program has three phases: (1) development of life prediction methods for major failure modes through materials studies, (2) evaluation and improvement of these methods through a variety of burner rig studies on simulated components in research engines and advanced rigs. These three phases form a cooperative, interdisciplinary program. A bibliography of Lewis publications on fatigue, oxidation and coatings, and turbine engine alloys is included.

A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Protection of ecosystem services is increasingly emphasized as a risk-assessment goal, but there are wide gaps between current ecological risk-assessment endpoints and potential effects on services provided by ecosystems. The authors present a framework that links common ecotoxicological endpoints to chemical impacts on populations and communities and the ecosystem services that they provide. This framework builds on considerable advances in mechanistic effects models designed to span multiple levels of biological organization and account for various types of biological interactions and feedbacks. For illustration, the authors introduce 2 case studies that employ well-developed and validated mechanistic effects models: the inSTREAM individual-based model for fish populations and the AQUATOX ecosystem model. They also show how dynamic energy budget theory can provide a common currency for interpreting organism-level toxicity. They suggest that a framework based on mechanistic models that predict impacts on ecosystem services resulting from chemical exposure, combined with economic valuation, can provide a useful approach for informing environmental management. The authors highlight the potential benefits of using this framework as well as the challenges that will need to be addressed in future work. The framework introduced here represents an ongoing initiative supported by the National Institute of Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS; http://www.nimbi

Scour at culvert outlets in mixed bed materials.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-09-01

"The study of localized scour at culvert outlets has been on-going to control and manage erosion along highway embankments. Herein is presented an investigation of scour at culvert outlets which refines and extends the state-of-the-art of predicting ...

Calibration factors handbook : safety prediction models calibrated with Texas highway system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

Highway safety is an ongoing concern to the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). As part of its : proactive commitment to improving highway safety, TxDOT is moving toward including quantitative safety : analyses earlier in the project developm...

MODELING ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES TO PARTICULATE MATTER AND PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation describes initial results from on-going research at EPA on modeling human exposures to particulate matter and residential pesticides. A first generation probabilistic population exposure model for Particulate Matter (PM), specifically for predicting PM1o and P...

Latitudinal variation in carbon storage can help predict changes in swamps affected by global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.; McKee, Karen

2004-01-01

Plants may offer our best hope of removing greenhouse gases (gases that contribute to global warming) emitted to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. At the same time, global warming could change environments so that natural plant communities will either need to shift into cooler climate zones, or become extirpated (Prasad and Iverson, 1999; Crumpacker and others, 2001; Davis and Shaw, 2001). It is impossible to know the future, but studies combining field observation of production and modeling can help us make predictions about what may happen to these wetland communities in the future. Widespread wetland types such as baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps in the southeastern portion of the United States could be especially good at carbon sequestration (amount of CO2 stored by forests) from the atmosphere. They have high levels of production and sometimes store undecomposed dead plant material in wet conditions with low oxygen, thus keeping gases stored that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere (fig. 1). To study the ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon, our project has taken two approaches. The first analysis looked at published data to develop an idea (hypothesis) of how production levels change across a temperature gradient in the baldcypress region (published data study). The second study tested this idea by comparing production levels across a latitudinal range by using swamps in similar field conditions (ongoing carbon storage study). These studies will help us make predictions about the future ability of baldcypress swamps to store carbon in soil and plant biomass, as well as the ability of these forests to shift northward with global warming.

NNLO corrections to top-pair production at hadron colliders: the all-fermionic scattering channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czakon, Michal; Mitov, Alexander

2012-12-01

This is a second paper in our ongoing calculation of the next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD correction to the total inclusive top-pair production cross-section at hadron colliders. In this paper we calculate the reaction qoverline{q}to toverline{t}+qoverline{q} which was not considered in our previous work on qoverline{q}to toverline{t}+X [1] due to its phenomenologically negligible size. We also calculate all remaining fermion-pair-initiated partonic channels q{q^' }} , q{{overline{q}}^' }} and qq that contribute to top-pair production starting from NNLO. The contributions of these reactions to the total cross-section for top-pair production at the Tevatron and LHC are small, at the permil level. The most interesting feature of these reactions is their characteristic logarithmic rise in the high energy limit. We compute the constant term in the leading power behavior in this limit, and achieve precision that is an order of magnitude better than the precision of a recent theoretical prediction for this constant. All four partonic reactions computed in this paper are included in our numerical program Top++. The calculation of the NNLO corrections to the two remaining partonic reactions, qgto toverline{t}+X and ggto toverline{t}+X , is ongoing.

Quality Matters™: An Educational Input in an Ongoing Design-Based Research Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adair, Deborah; Shattuck, Kay

2015-01-01

Quality Matters (QM) has been transforming established best practices and online education-based research into an applicable, scalable course level improvement process for the last decade. In this article, the authors describe QM as an ongoing design-based research project and an educational input for improving online education.

Decisions on Further Research for Predictive Biomarkers of High-Dose Alkylating Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Value of Information Analysis.

PubMed

Miquel-Cases, Anna; Retèl, Valesca P; van Harten, Wim H; Steuten, Lotte M G

2016-06-01

To inform decisions about the design and priority of further studies of emerging predictive biomarkers of high-dose alkylating chemotherapy (HDAC) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) using value-of-information analysis. A state transition model compared treating women with TNBC with current clinical practice and four biomarker strategies to personalize HDAC: 1) BRCA1-like profile by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) testing; 2) BRCA1-like profile by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) testing; 3) strategy 1 followed by X-inactive specific transcript gene (XIST) and tumor suppressor p53 binding protein (53BP1) testing; and 4) strategy 2 followed by XIST and 53BP1 testing, from a Dutch societal perspective and a 20-year time horizon. Input data came from literature and expert opinions. We assessed the expected value of partial perfect information, the expected value of sample information, and the expected net benefit of sampling for potential ancillary studies of an ongoing randomized controlled trial (RCT; NCT01057069). The expected value of partial perfect information indicated that further research should be prioritized to the parameter group including "biomarkers' prevalence, positive predictive value (PPV), and treatment response rates (TRRs) in biomarker-negative patients and patients with TNBC" (€639 million), followed by utilities (€48 million), costs (€40 million), and transition probabilities (TPs) (€30 million). By setting up four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT, data on 1) TP and MLPA prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 2) aCGH and aCGH/MLPA plus XIST and 53BP1 prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 3) utilities; and 4) costs could be simultaneously collected (optimal size = 3000). Further research on predictive biomarkers for HDAC should focus on gathering data on TPs, prevalence, PPV, TRRs, utilities, and costs from the four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic simulation of train-truck collision at level crossings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, Liang; Guan, Qinghua; Dhanasekar, Manicka; Thambiratnam, David P.

2017-01-01

Trains crashing onto heavy road vehicles stuck across rail tracks are more likely occurrences at level crossings due to ongoing increase in the registration of heavy vehicles and these long heavy vehicles getting caught in traffic after partly crossing the boom gate; these incidents lead to significant financial losses and societal costs. This paper presents an investigation of the dynamic responses of trains under frontal collision on road trucks obliquely stuck on rail tracks at level crossings. This study builds a nonlinear three-dimensional multi-body dynamic model of a passenger train colliding with an obliquely stuck road truck on a ballasted track. The model is first benchmarked against several train dynamics packages and its predictions of the dynamic response and derailment potential are shown rational. A geometry-based derailment assessment criterion is applied to evaluate the derailment behaviour of the frontal obliquely impacted trains under different conditions. Sensitivities of several key influencing parameters, such as the train impact speed, the truck mass, the friction at truck tyres, the train-truck impact angle, the contact friction at the collision zone, the wheel/rail friction and the train suspension are reported.

Emerging Role of Immunotherapy in Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma.

PubMed

Koshkin, Vadim S; Grivas, Petros

2018-04-11

Advanced urothelial carcinoma (aUC) has long been treated preferably with cisplatin-based chemotherapy, but many patients are cisplatin-ineligible whereas for those who progress on a platinum-based regimen treatment options are limited. We review key recent data regarding immune checkpoint inhibitors that are changing this treatment landscape. Since May 2016, five different agents targeting the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway (atezolizumab, pembrolizumab, nivolumab, avelumab, durvalumab) have received FDA approval for the treatment of aUC in the platinum-refractory setting, while pembrolizumab and atezolizumab are FDA-approved for cisplatin-ineligible patients in the first-line setting. Clinical outcomes and safety profiles of these agents appear relatively comparable across separate trials; however, only pembrolizumab is supported by level I evidence from a large randomized phase III trial showing overall survival benefit over conventional cytotoxic salvage chemotherapy in the platinum-refractory setting. Pembrolizumab has the highest level of evidence in platinum-refractory aUC, whereas pembrolizumab and atezolizumab have comparable level of evidence in the frontline setting in cisplatin-ineligible patients. Ongoing research is evaluating novel agents, various rational combinations, and sequences, as well as predictive and prognostic biomarkers.

Differentiated thyroid cancer in children: Heterogeneity of predictive risk factors.

PubMed

Russo, Marco; Malandrino, Pasqualino; Moleti, Mariacarla; Vermiglio, Francesco; D'Angelo, Antonio; La Rosa, Giuliana; Sapuppo, Giulia; Calaciura, Francesca; Regalbuto, Concetto; Belfiore, Antonino; Vigneri, Riccardo; Pellegriti, Gabriella

2018-05-16

To correlate clinical and pathological characteristics at diagnosis with patient long-term outcomes and to evaluate ongoing risk stratifications in a large series of paediatric differentiated thyroid cancers (DTC). Retrospective analysis of clinical and pathological prognostic factors of 124 paediatric patients with DTC (age at diagnosis <19 years) followed up for 10.4 ± 8.4 years. Patients with a follow-up >3 years (n = 104) were re-classified 18 months after surgery on the basis of their response to therapy (ongoing risk stratification). Most patients had a papillary histotype (96.0%), were older than 15 years (75.0%) and were diagnosed because of clinical local symptoms (63.7%). Persistent/recurrent disease was present in 31.5% of cases during follow-up, but at the last evaluation, only 12.9% had biochemical or structural disease. The presence of metastases in the lymph nodes of the lateral compartment (OR 3.2, 95% CI, 1.28-7.16, P = 0.01) was the only independent factor associated with recurrent/persistent disease during follow-up. At the last evaluation, biochemical/structural disease was associated with node metastases (N1a, N1b) by univariate but not multivariate analysis. Ongoing risk stratification compared to the initial risk classification method better identified patients with a lower probability of persistent/recurrent disease (NPV = 100%). In spite of the aggressive presentations at diagnosis, paediatric patients with DTC show an excellent response to treatment and often a favourable outcome. N1b status should be considered a strong predictor of persistent/recurrent disease which, as in adults, is better predicted by ongoing risk stratification. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamics of Solar System Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dermott, Stanley F.

2002-01-01

The ongoing aim of the research is to investigate the dynamical and physical evolution of interplanetary dust particles in order to produce a detailed global model of the zodiacal cloud and its constituent components that is capable of predicting thermal fluxes in mid-infrared wave bands to an accuracy of 1% or better; with the additional aim of exploiting this research as a basis for predicting structure in exozodiacal clouds that may be signatures of unseen planets.

The role of maladaptive appraisals in child acute stress reactions.

PubMed

Salmon, Karen; Sinclair, Emma; Bryant, Richard A

2007-06-01

To test the prediction of cognitive models of trauma that negative, catastrophic appraisals central to the development of psychopathological stress reactions. A cross-sectional, concurrent design was used. Sixty-six children (aged 7-13 years), who were hospitalized after traumatic injury were assessed within 4 weeks of their trauma for acute stress disorder, depression, and administered the Child Post-traumatic Cognitions Inventory (cPTCI). Parental acute stress was also assessed. Children's negative appraisals of their ongoing vulnerability accounted for 44% of the variance of acute stress reactions in children. Injury severity, depression, age, and parental acute stress levels did not account for significant additional variance. The findings provide support for cognitive models of trauma adaptation and highlight the importance of assessing children's appraisals of their traumatic experience in order to develop effective interventions.

Wafer hot spot identification through advanced photomask characterization techniques: part 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Yohan; Green, Michael; Cho, Young; Ham, Young; Lin, Howard; Lan, Andy; Yang, Richer; Lung, Mike

2017-03-01

Historically, 1D metrics such as Mean to Target (MTT) and CD Uniformity (CDU) have been adequate for mask end users to evaluate and predict the mask impact on the wafer process. However, the wafer lithographer's process margin is shrinking at advanced nodes to a point that classical mask CD metrics are no longer adequate to gauge the mask contribution to wafer process error. For example, wafer CDU error at advanced nodes is impacted by mask factors such as 3-dimensional (3D) effects and mask pattern fidelity on sub-resolution assist features (SRAFs) used in Optical Proximity Correction (OPC) models of ever-increasing complexity. To overcome the limitation of 1D metrics, there are numerous on-going industry efforts to better define wafer-predictive metrics through both standard mask metrology and aerial CD methods. Even with these improvements, the industry continues to struggle to define useful correlative metrics that link the mask to final device performance. In part 1 of this work, we utilized advanced mask pattern characterization techniques to extract potential hot spots on the mask and link them, theoretically, to issues with final wafer performance. In this paper, part 2, we complete the work by verifying these techniques at wafer level. The test vehicle (TV) that was used for hot spot detection on the mask in part 1 will be used to expose wafers. The results will be used to verify the mask-level predictions. Finally, wafer performance with predicted and verified mask/wafer condition will be shown as the result of advanced mask characterization. The goal is to maximize mask end user yield through mask-wafer technology harmonization. This harmonization will provide the necessary feedback to determine optimum design, mask specifications, and mask-making conditions for optimal wafer process margin.

Predicting pain relief: Use of pre-surgical trigeminal nerve diffusion metrics in trigeminal neuralgia.

PubMed

Hung, Peter S-P; Chen, David Q; Davis, Karen D; Zhong, Jidan; Hodaie, Mojgan

2017-01-01

Trigeminal neuralgia (TN) is a chronic neuropathic facial pain disorder that commonly responds to surgery. A proportion of patients, however, do not benefit and suffer ongoing pain. There are currently no imaging tools that permit the prediction of treatment response. To address this paucity, we used diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to determine whether pre-surgical trigeminal nerve microstructural diffusivities can prognosticate response to TN treatment. In 31 TN patients and 16 healthy controls, multi-tensor tractography was used to extract DTI-derived metrics-axial (AD), radial (RD), mean diffusivity (MD), and fractional anisotropy (FA)-from the cisternal segment, root entry zone and pontine segment of trigeminal nerves for false discovery rate-corrected Student's t -tests. Ipsilateral diffusivities were bootstrap resampled to visualize group-level diffusivity thresholds of long-term response. To obtain an individual-level statistical classifier of surgical response, we conducted discriminant function analysis (DFA) with the type of surgery chosen alongside ipsilateral measurements and ipsilateral/contralateral ratios of AD and RD from all regions of interest as prediction variables. Abnormal diffusivity in the trigeminal pontine fibers, demonstrated by increased AD, highlighted non-responders (n = 14) compared to controls. Bootstrap resampling revealed three ipsilateral diffusivity thresholds of response-pontine AD, MD, cisternal FA-separating 85% of non-responders from responders. DFA produced an 83.9% (71.0% using leave-one-out-cross-validation) accurate prognosticator of response that successfully identified 12/14 non-responders. Our study demonstrates that pre-surgical DTI metrics can serve as a highly predictive, individualized tool to prognosticate surgical response. We further highlight abnormal pontine segment diffusivities as key features of treatment non-response and confirm the axiom that central pain does not commonly benefit from peripheral treatments.

Computational and empirical studies predict Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T cells as a biomarker for infection outcome

DOE PAGES

Marino, Simeone; Gideon, Hannah P.; Gong, Chang; ...

2016-04-11

Identifying biomarkers for tuberculosis (TB) is an ongoing challenge in developing immunological correlates of infection outcome and protection. Biomarker discovery is also necessary for aiding design and testing of new treatments and vaccines. To effectively predict biomarkers for infection progression in any disease, including TB, large amounts of experimental data are required to reach statistical power and make accurate predictions. We took a two-pronged approach using both experimental and computational modeling to address this problem. We first collected 200 blood samples over a 2-year period from 28 non-human primates (NHP) infected with a low dose of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We identifiedmore » T cells and the cytokines that they were producing (single and multiple) from each sample along with monkey status and infection progression data. Machine learning techniques were used to interrogate the experimental NHP datasets without identifying any potential TB biomarker. In parallel, we used our extensive novel NHP datasets to build and calibrate a multi-organ computational model that combines what is occurring at the site of infection (e.g., lung) at a single granuloma scale with blood level readouts that can be tracked in monkeys and humans. We then generated a large in silico repository of in silico granulomas coupled to lymph node and blood dynamics and developed an in silico tool to scale granuloma level results to a full host scale to identify what best predicts Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection outcomes. The analysis of in silico blood measures identifies Mtb-specific frequencies of effector T cell phenotypes at various time points post infection as promising indicators of infection outcome. As a result, we emphasize that pairing wetlab and computational approaches holds great promise to accelerate TB biomarker discovery.« less

Computational and empirical studies predict Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T cells as a biomarker for infection outcome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marino, Simeone; Gideon, Hannah P.; Gong, Chang

Identifying biomarkers for tuberculosis (TB) is an ongoing challenge in developing immunological correlates of infection outcome and protection. Biomarker discovery is also necessary for aiding design and testing of new treatments and vaccines. To effectively predict biomarkers for infection progression in any disease, including TB, large amounts of experimental data are required to reach statistical power and make accurate predictions. We took a two-pronged approach using both experimental and computational modeling to address this problem. We first collected 200 blood samples over a 2-year period from 28 non-human primates (NHP) infected with a low dose of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We identifiedmore » T cells and the cytokines that they were producing (single and multiple) from each sample along with monkey status and infection progression data. Machine learning techniques were used to interrogate the experimental NHP datasets without identifying any potential TB biomarker. In parallel, we used our extensive novel NHP datasets to build and calibrate a multi-organ computational model that combines what is occurring at the site of infection (e.g., lung) at a single granuloma scale with blood level readouts that can be tracked in monkeys and humans. We then generated a large in silico repository of in silico granulomas coupled to lymph node and blood dynamics and developed an in silico tool to scale granuloma level results to a full host scale to identify what best predicts Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection outcomes. The analysis of in silico blood measures identifies Mtb-specific frequencies of effector T cell phenotypes at various time points post infection as promising indicators of infection outcome. As a result, we emphasize that pairing wetlab and computational approaches holds great promise to accelerate TB biomarker discovery.« less

A Serological Biopsy Using Five Stomach-Specific Circulating Biomarkers for Gastric Cancer Risk Assessment: A Multi-Phase Study.

PubMed

Tu, Huakang; Sun, Liping; Dong, Xiao; Gong, Yuehua; Xu, Qian; Jing, Jingjing; Bostick, Roberd M; Wu, Xifeng; Yuan, Yuan

2017-05-01

We aimed to assess a serological biopsy using five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers-pepsinogen I (PGI), PGII, PGI/II ratio, anti-Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) antibody, and gastrin-17 (G-17)-for identifying high-risk individuals and predicting risk of developing gastric cancer (GC). Among 12,112 participants with prospective follow-up from an ongoing population-based screening program using both serology and gastroscopy in China, we conducted a multi-phase study involving a cross-sectional analysis, a follow-up analysis, and an integrative risk prediction modeling analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, the five biomarkers (especially PGII, the PGI/II ratio, and H. pylori sero-positivity) were associated with the presence of precancerous gastric lesions or GC at enrollment. In the follow-up analysis, low PGI levels and PGI/II ratios were associated with higher risk of developing GC, and both low (<0.5 pmol/l) and high (>4.7 pmol/l) G-17 levels were associated with higher risk of developing GC, suggesting a J-shaped association. In the risk prediction modeling analysis, the five biomarkers combined yielded a C statistic of 0.803 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.789-0.816) and improved prediction beyond traditional risk factors (C statistic from 0.580 to 0.811, P<0.001) for identifying precancerous lesions at enrollment, and higher serological biopsy scores based on the five biomarkers at enrollment were associated with higher risk of developing GC during follow-up (P for trend <0.001). A serological biopsy composed of the five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers could be used to identify high-risk individuals for further diagnostic gastroscopy, and to stratify individuals' risk of developing GC and thus to guide targeted screening and precision prevention.

US EPA Testing of LP & MP UV Disinfection Technologies

EPA Science Inventory

Presentation will discuss the ongoing USEPA research on UV disinfection addressing the following objectives: Conservatively predict log inactivation and RED of adenovirus with surrogates; Conduct many (LP=61) UV reactor conditions challenged with Ad2, B. pumilus, and MS2 & conduc...

Using high-throughput literature mining to support read-across predictions of toxicity (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

Building scientific confidence in the development and evaluation of read-across remains an ongoing challenge. Approaches include establishing systematic frameworks to identify sources of uncertainty and ways to address them. One source of uncertainty is related to characterizing ...

High-throughput literature mining to support read-across predictions of toxicity (ASCCT meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

Building scientific confidence in the development and evaluation of read-across remains an ongoing challenge. Approaches include establishing systematic frameworks to identify sources of uncertainty and ways to address them. One source of uncertainty is related to characterizing ...

HYDRODYNAMIC AND TRANSPORT MODELING STUDY IN A HIGHLY STRATIFIED ESTUARY

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents the preliminary results of hydrodynamic and salinity predictions and the implications to an ongoing contaminated sediment transport and fate modeling effort in the Lower Duwamish Waterway (LDW), Seattle, Washington. The LDW is highly strati-fied when freshwate...

Prestimulus neural oscillations inhibit visual perception via modulation of response gain.

PubMed

Chaumon, Maximilien; Busch, Niko A

2014-11-01

The ongoing state of the brain radically affects how it processes sensory information. How does this ongoing brain activity interact with the processing of external stimuli? Spontaneous oscillations in the alpha range are thought to inhibit sensory processing, but little is known about the psychophysical mechanisms of this inhibition. We recorded ongoing brain activity with EEG while human observers performed a visual detection task with stimuli of different contrast intensities. To move beyond qualitative description, we formally compared psychometric functions obtained under different levels of ongoing alpha power and evaluated the inhibitory effect of ongoing alpha oscillations in terms of contrast or response gain models. This procedure opens the way to understanding the actual functional mechanisms by which ongoing brain activity affects visual performance. We found that strong prestimulus occipital alpha oscillations-but not more anterior mu oscillations-reduce performance most strongly for stimuli of the highest intensities tested. This inhibitory effect is best explained by a divisive reduction of response gain. Ongoing occipital alpha oscillations thus reflect changes in the visual system's input/output transformation that are independent of the sensory input to the system. They selectively scale the system's response, rather than change its sensitivity to sensory information.

Improved Aerodynamic Analysis for Hybrid Wing Body Conceptual Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gern, Frank H.

2012-01-01

This paper provides an overview of ongoing efforts to develop, evaluate, and validate different tools for improved aerodynamic modeling and systems analysis of Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) aircraft configurations. Results are being presented for the evaluation of different aerodynamic tools including panel methods, enhanced panel methods with viscous drag prediction, and computational fluid dynamics. Emphasis is placed on proper prediction of aerodynamic loads for structural sizing as well as viscous drag prediction to develop drag polars for HWB conceptual design optimization. Data from transonic wind tunnel tests at the Arnold Engineering Development Center s 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel was used as a reference data set in order to evaluate the accuracy of the aerodynamic tools. Triangularized surface data and Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP) models of an X-48B 2% scale wind tunnel model were used to generate input and model files for the different analysis tools. In support of ongoing HWB scaling studies within the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) program, an improved finite element based structural analysis and weight estimation tool for HWB center bodies is currently under development. Aerodynamic results from these analyses are used to provide additional aerodynamic validation data.

Smartphone-based noise mapping: Integrating sound level meter app data into the strategic noise mapping process.

PubMed

Murphy, Enda; King, Eoin A

2016-08-15

The strategic noise mapping process of the EU has now been ongoing for more than ten years. However, despite the fact that a significant volume of research has been conducted on the process and related issues there has been little change or innovation in how relevant authorities and policymakers are conducting the process since its inception. This paper reports on research undertaken to assess the possibility for smartphone-based noise mapping data to be integrated into the traditional strategic noise mapping process. We compare maps generated using the traditional approach with those generated using smartphone-based measurement data. The advantage of the latter approach is that it has the potential to remove the need for exhaustive input data into the source calculation model for noise prediction. In addition, the study also tests the accuracy of smartphone-based measurements against simultaneous measurements taken using traditional sound level meters in the field. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Dropout From Inpatient Substance Use Treatment: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Andersson, Helle Wessel; Steinsbekk, Aslak; Walderhaug, Espen; Otterholt, Eli; Nordfjærn, Trond

2018-01-01

Introduction: Dropout from inpatient treatment for substance use disorder (SUD) is an ongoing challenge. The aim of this study was to identify demographic, substance use, and psychological factors that predict dropout from postdetoxification inpatient SUD treatment. Materials and methods: A total of 454 patients from 5 inpatient SUD centers in Central Norway were consecutively included in this naturalistic, prospective cohort study. Results: A total of 132 patients (28%) did not complete the planned treatment stay (dropped out). Cox regression analysis showed that higher levels of intrinsic motivation for changing personal substance use reduced the dropout risk (adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR]: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.79). Higher levels of mental distress were associated with an increased risk for dropout (adjHR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.11-1.97). Conclusions: The role of mental health and motivation in reducing dropout risk from inpatient SUD treatment should be targeted in future prospective intervention studies. PMID:29531472

Differential effects of mental stress on plasma homovanillic acid in schizophrenia and normal controls.

PubMed

Sumiyoshi, T; Saitoh, O; Yotsutsuji, T; Itoh, H; Kurokawa, K; Kurachi, M

1999-04-01

We previously reported that mental stress by Kraepelin's arithmetic test decreases plasma homovanillic acid (pHVA) levels in psychiatrically normal healthy human subjects. The present study was undertaken to determine whether this pattern of changes in pHVA concentrations resulting from mental stress is altered in patients with schizophrenia. Fourteen male patients with schizophrenia including those under ongoing neuroleptic treatment and 14 normal male volunteers participated in the study. Following overnight fast and restricted physical activity, the subjects performed Kraepelin's arithmetic test for 30 minutes. Plasma samples were collected immediately before and after the test for measurement of pHVA levels. A significant diagnosis by Kraepelin's test effect was observed due to a decrease in pHVA levels by the Kraepelin test in control subjects but not in patients with schizophrenia. Changes in pHVA levels during the Kraepelin test positively correlated with pre-test pHVA levels in control subjects, while this correlation was not observed in patients with schizophrenia. These results may be further support for the presence of a dopamine-dependent restitutive system in the brain. The absence of response of pHVA levels to mental stress in patients with schizophrenia may indicate that the dopamine restitutive system in these patients is disrupted or already down-regulated, as previously predicted.

Elevated serum estradiol levels in artificial autologous frozen embryo transfer cycles negatively impact ongoing pregnancy and live birth rates.

PubMed

Fritz, Rani; Jindal, Sangita; Feil, Heather; Buyuk, Erkan

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the correlation between serum estradiol (E 2 ) levels during artificial autologous frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles and ongoing pregnancy/live birth rates (OP/LB). A historical cohort study was conducted in an academic setting in order to correlate peak and average estradiol levels with ongoing pregnancy/live birth rates for all autologous artificial frozen embryo transfer cycles performed from 1/2011 to 12/2014. Average and peak E 2 levels from 110 autologous artificial FET cycles from 95 patients were analyzed. Average E 2 levels were significantly lower in cycles resulting in OP/LB compared to those that did not (234.1 ± 16.6 pg/ml vs. 315 ± 24.8 pg/ml, respectively, p = 0.04). Although peak E 2 levels were not significantly different between cycles resulting in OP/LB compared with those that did not (366.9 ± 27.7 pg/ml vs. 459.1 ± 32.3 pg/ml, respectively, p = 0.19), correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant (p = 0.02) downward trend in OP/LB rates with increasing peak E 2 levels. This study suggests that elevated E 2 levels in artificial autologous FET cycles are associated with lower OP/LB rates. Estradiol levels should be monitored during artificial FET cycles.

Clinical and Functional Outcome of Childhood ADHD 33 Years Later

PubMed Central

Klein, Rachel G.; Mannuzza, Salvatore; Ramos Olazagasti, María A.; Roizen Belsky, Erica; Hutchison, Jesse A.; Lashua-Shriftman, Erin; Castellanos, F. Xavier

2012-01-01

Context Prospective studies of childhood attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have not extended beyond early adulthood. Objective To test whether children diagnosed with ADHD at mean age 8 (probands) have worse educational, occupational, economic, social, marital outcomes; higher rates of ongoing ADHD, antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), substance disorders (SD); adult onset psychiatric disorders, psychiatric hospitalizations and incarcerations, than non-ADHD comparisons, at mean age 41. To test for: positive associations between probands’ ongoing ADHD and ASPD, and SD’s; and for worse social and occupational functioning in probands without ongoing psychiatric disorders, than comparisons. Design Prospective, 33 year follow-up study, with blind clinical assessments. Setting Research clinic. Participants 135 Caucasian males with ADHD in childhood, free of conduct disorder, and 136 male comparisons without childhood ADHD (65% and 76% of original cohort, respectively). Main Outcome Measures Occupational, economic, and educational attainment; marital history; occupational and social functioning; ongoing and lifetime psychiatric disorders; psychiatric hospitalizations, and incarcerations. Results Probands had significantly worse educational, occupational, economic, social outcomes, and more divorces than comparisons; higher rates of ongoing ADHD (22% vs 5%, p<.001), ASPD (16% vs 0%, p<.001)and SD (14% vs 5%, p<.01), but not more mood or anxiety disorders (p’s=.36 and .33). Ongoing ADHD was weakly related to ongoing SD (phi=.19, p=.04), and ASPD+SD (phi=.20, p=.04). Lifetime, probands had significantly more ASPD and SD’s, but not mood or anxiety disorders, and more psychiatric hospitalizations and incarcerations than comparisons. Relative to comparisons, psychiatric disorders with onsets at age 21 or beyond were not significantly elevated in probands. Probands without ongoing psychiatric disorders had worse social, but not occupational, functioning. Conclusions The multiple disadvantages predicted by childhood ADHD well into adulthood began in adolescence, without increased onsets of new disorders after age 20. Findings highlight the importance of extended monitoring and treatment of children with ADHD. PMID:23070149

Flexible parametric survival models built on age-specific antimüllerian hormone percentiles are better predictors of menopause.

PubMed

Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Steyerberg, Ewout; Azizi, Fereidoun

2016-06-01

This study aimed to improve existing prediction models for age at menopause. We identified all reproductive aged women with regular menstrual cycles who met our eligibility criteria (n = 1,015) in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study-an ongoing population-based cohort study initiated in 1998. Participants were examined every 3 years and their reproductive histories were recorded. Blood levels of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) were measured at the time of recruitment. Age at menopause was estimated based on serum concentrations of AMH using flexible parametric survival models. The optimum model was selected according to Akaike Information Criteria and the realness of the range of predicted median menopause age. We followed study participants for a median of 9.8 years during which 277 women reached menopause and found that a spline-based proportional odds model including age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate performed well in terms of statistical criteria and provided the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions. The range of predicted median age at menopause for this model was 47.1 to 55.9 years. For those who reached menopause, the median of the absolute mean difference between actual and predicted age at menopause was 1.9 years (interquartile range 2.9). The model including the age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate and using proportional odds as its covariate metrics meets all the statistical criteria for the best model and provides the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions for age at menopause for reproductive-aged women.

iSPUW: integrated sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Nazari, B.; Habibi, H.; Norouzi, A.; Nabatian, M.; Seo, D. J.; Bartos, M. D.; Kerkez, B.; Lakshman, L.; Zink, M.; Lee, J.

2016-12-01

Many cities face tremendous water-related challenges in this Century of the City. Urban areas are particularly susceptible not only to excesses and shortages of water but also to impaired water quality. To addresses these challenges, we synergistically integrate advances in computing and cyber-infrastructure, environmental modeling, geoscience, and information science to develop integrative solutions for urban water challenges. In this presentation, we describe the various efforts that are currently ongoing in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area for iSPUW: real-time high-resolution flash flood forecasting, inundation mapping for large urban areas, crowdsourcing of water observations in urban areas, real-time assimilation of crowdsourced observations for street and river flooding, integrated control of lawn irrigation and rainwater harvesting for water conservation and stormwater management, feature mining with causal discovery for flood prediction, and development of the Arlington Urban Hydroinformatics Testbed. Analyzed is the initial data of sensor network for water level and lawn monitoring, and cellphone applications for crowdsourcing flood reports. New data assimilation approaches to deal with categorical and continuous observations are also evaluated via synthetic experiments.

Self-reported posttraumatic growth predicts greater subsequent posttraumatic stress amidst war and terrorism.

PubMed

Zalta, Alyson K; Gerhart, James; Hall, Brian J; Rajan, Kumar B; Vechiu, Catalina; Canetti, Daphna; Hobfoll, Stevan E

2017-03-01

This study tested three alternative explanations for research indicating a positive, but heterogeneous relationship between self-reported posttraumatic growth (PTG) and posttraumatic stress symptoms (PSS): (a) the third-variable hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is a spurious one driven by positive relationships with resource loss, (b) the growth over time hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is initially a positive one, but becomes negative over time, and (c) the moderator hypothesis that resource loss moderates the relationship between PTG and PSS such that PTG is associated with lower levels of PSS as loss increases. A nationally representative sample (N = 1622) of Israelis was assessed at three time points during a period of ongoing violence. PTG, resource loss, and the interaction between PTG and loss were examined as lagged predictors of PSS to test the proposed hypotheses. Results were inconsistent with all three hypotheses, showing that PTG positively predicted subsequent PSS when accounting for main and interactive effects of loss. Our results suggest that self-reported PTG is a meaningful but counterintuitive predictor of poorer mental health following trauma.

Factors That Predict Financial Sustainability of Community Coalitions: Five Years of Findings from the PROSPER Partnership Project

PubMed Central

Greenberg, Mark T.; Feinberg, Mark E.; Johnson, Lesley E.; Perkins, Daniel F.; Welsh, Janet A.; Spoth, Richard L.

2014-01-01

This study is a longitudinal investigation of the PROSPER partnership model designed to evaluate the level of sustainability funding by community prevention teams, including which factors impact teams’ generation of sustainable funding. Community teams were responsible for choosing, implementing with quality, and sustaining evidence-based programs (EBPs) intended to reduce substance misuse and promote positive youth and family development. Fourteen US rural communities and small towns were studied. Data were collected from PROSPER community team members (N=164) and Prevention Coordinators (N=10), over a 5-year period. Global and specific aspects of team functioning were assessed over 6 waves. Outcome measures were the total funds (cash and in-kind) raised to implement prevention programs. All 14 community teams were sustained for the first five years. However, there was substantial variability in the amount of funds raised and these differences were predicted by earlier and concurrent team functioning and by team sustainability planning. Given the sufficient infrastructure and ongoing technical assistance provided by the PROSPER partnership model, local sustainability of EBPs is achievable. PMID:24706195

Distributed collaborative environments for predictive battlespace awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQuay, William K.

2003-09-01

The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: asymmetric warfare, the reliance on dynamic coalitions, stringent rules of engagement, increased concern about collateral damage, and the need for sustained air operations. Mission commanders need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, make quick-response decisions, and quantify the effects of those decisions in the face of uncertainty. Situational assessment is crucial in understanding the battlespace. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets that include modeling, simulations, and analysis tools. Decision support technologies can semi-automate activities, such as analysis and planning, that have a reasonably well-defined process and provide machine-level interfaces to refine the myriad of information that the commander must fused. Collaborative environments provide the framework and integrate models, simulations, and domain specific decision support tools for the sharing and exchanging of data, information, knowledge, and actions. This paper describes ongoing AFRL research efforts in applying distributed collaborative environments to predictive battlespace awareness.

Effective behavioral modeling and prediction even when few exemplars are available

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goan, Terrance; Kartha, Neelakantan; Kaneshiro, Ryan

2006-05-01

While great progress has been made in the lowest levels of data fusion, practical advances in behavior modeling and prediction remain elusive. The most critical limitation of existing approaches is their inability to support the required knowledge modeling and continuing refinement under realistic constraints (e.g., few historic exemplars, the lack of knowledge engineering support, and the need for rapid system deployment). This paper reports on our ongoing efforts to develop Propheteer, a system which will address these shortcomings through two primary techniques. First, with Propheteer we abandon the typical consensus-driven modeling approaches that involve infrequent group decision making sessions in favor of an approach that solicits asynchronous knowledge contributions (in the form of alternative future scenarios and indicators) without burdening the user with endless certainty or probability estimates. Second, we enable knowledge contributions by personnel beyond the typical core decision making group, thereby casting light on blind spots, mitigating human biases, and helping maintain the currency of the developed behavior models. We conclude with a discussion of the many lessons learned in the development of our prototype Propheteer system.

Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers and Reserve Variables as Predictors of Future “Non-Cognitive” Outcomes of Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Ingber, Adam P.; Hassenstab, Jason; Fagan, Anne M.; Benzinger, Tammie L.S.; Grant, Elizabeth A.; Holtzman, David M.; Morris, John C.; Roe, Catherine M.

2016-01-01

Background The influence of reserve variables and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) biomarkers on cognitive test performance has been fairly well-characterized. However, less is known about the influence of these factors on “non-cognitive” outcomes, including functional abilities and mood. Objective We examined whether cognitive and brain reserve variables mediate how AD biomarker levels in cognitively normal persons predict future changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior. Methods Non-cognitive outcomes were examined in 328 individuals 50 years and older enrolled in ongoing studies of aging and dementia at the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center (ADRC). All participants were cognitively normal at baseline (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] 0), completed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and structural neuroimaging studies within one year of baseline, and were followed for an average of 4.6 annual visits. Linear mixed effects models explored how cognitive reserve and brain reserve variables mediate the relationships between AD biomarker levels and changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior in cognitively normal participants. Results Education levels did not have a significant effect on predicting non-cognitive decline. However, participants with smaller brain volumes exhibited the worst outcomes on measures of mood, functional abilities, and behavioral disturbance. This effect was most pronounced in individuals who also had abnormal CSF biomarkers. Conclusions The findings suggest that brain reserve plays a stronger, or earlier, role than cognitive reserve in protecting against non-cognitive impairment in AD. PMID:27104893

Cross-modal orienting of visual attention.

PubMed

Hillyard, Steven A; Störmer, Viola S; Feng, Wenfeng; Martinez, Antigona; McDonald, John J

2016-03-01

This article reviews a series of experiments that combined behavioral and electrophysiological recording techniques to explore the hypothesis that salient sounds attract attention automatically and facilitate the processing of visual stimuli at the sound's location. This cross-modal capture of visual attention was found to occur even when the attracting sound was irrelevant to the ongoing task and was non-predictive of subsequent events. A slow positive component in the event-related potential (ERP) that was localized to the visual cortex was found to be closely coupled with the orienting of visual attention to a sound's location. This neural sign of visual cortex activation was predictive of enhanced perceptual processing and was paralleled by a desynchronization (blocking) of the ongoing occipital alpha rhythm. Further research is needed to determine the nature of the relationship between the slow positive ERP evoked by the sound and the alpha desynchronization and to understand how these electrophysiological processes contribute to improved visual-perceptual processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing sensor accuracy for non-adjunct use of continuous glucose monitoring.

PubMed

Kovatchev, Boris P; Patek, Stephen D; Ortiz, Edward Andrew; Breton, Marc D

2015-03-01

The level of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) accuracy needed for insulin dosing using sensor values (i.e., the level of accuracy permitting non-adjunct CGM use) is a topic of ongoing debate. Assessment of this level in clinical experiments is virtually impossible because the magnitude of CGM errors cannot be manipulated and related prospectively to clinical outcomes. A combination of archival data (parallel CGM, insulin pump, self-monitoring of blood glucose [SMBG] records, and meals for 56 pump users with type 1 diabetes) and in silico experiments was used to "replay" real-life treatment scenarios and relate sensor error to glycemic outcomes. Nominal blood glucose (BG) traces were extracted using a mathematical model, yielding 2,082 BG segments each initiated by insulin bolus and confirmed by SMBG. These segments were replayed at seven sensor accuracy levels (mean absolute relative differences [MARDs] of 3-22%) testing six scenarios: insulin dosing using sensor values, threshold, and predictive alarms, each without or with considering CGM trend arrows. In all six scenarios, the occurrence of hypoglycemia (frequency of BG levels ≤50 mg/dL and BG levels ≤39 mg/dL) increased with sensor error, displaying an abrupt slope change at MARD =10%. Similarly, hyperglycemia (frequency of BG levels ≥250 mg/dL and BG levels ≥400 mg/dL) increased and displayed an abrupt slope change at MARD=10%. When added to insulin dosing decisions, information from CGM trend arrows, threshold, and predictive alarms resulted in improvement in average glycemia by 1.86, 8.17, and 8.88 mg/dL, respectively. Using CGM for insulin dosing decisions is feasible below a certain level of sensor error, estimated in silico at MARD=10%. In our experiments, further accuracy improvement did not contribute substantively to better glycemic outcomes.

Assessing Sensor Accuracy for Non-Adjunct Use of Continuous Glucose Monitoring

PubMed Central

Patek, Stephen D.; Ortiz, Edward Andrew; Breton, Marc D.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: The level of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) accuracy needed for insulin dosing using sensor values (i.e., the level of accuracy permitting non-adjunct CGM use) is a topic of ongoing debate. Assessment of this level in clinical experiments is virtually impossible because the magnitude of CGM errors cannot be manipulated and related prospectively to clinical outcomes. Materials and Methods: A combination of archival data (parallel CGM, insulin pump, self-monitoring of blood glucose [SMBG] records, and meals for 56 pump users with type 1 diabetes) and in silico experiments was used to “replay” real-life treatment scenarios and relate sensor error to glycemic outcomes. Nominal blood glucose (BG) traces were extracted using a mathematical model, yielding 2,082 BG segments each initiated by insulin bolus and confirmed by SMBG. These segments were replayed at seven sensor accuracy levels (mean absolute relative differences [MARDs] of 3–22%) testing six scenarios: insulin dosing using sensor values, threshold, and predictive alarms, each without or with considering CGM trend arrows. Results: In all six scenarios, the occurrence of hypoglycemia (frequency of BG levels ≤50 mg/dL and BG levels ≤39 mg/dL) increased with sensor error, displaying an abrupt slope change at MARD =10%. Similarly, hyperglycemia (frequency of BG levels ≥250 mg/dL and BG levels ≥400 mg/dL) increased and displayed an abrupt slope change at MARD=10%. When added to insulin dosing decisions, information from CGM trend arrows, threshold, and predictive alarms resulted in improvement in average glycemia by 1.86, 8.17, and 8.88 mg/dL, respectively. Conclusions: Using CGM for insulin dosing decisions is feasible below a certain level of sensor error, estimated in silico at MARD=10%. In our experiments, further accuracy improvement did not contribute substantively to better glycemic outcomes. PMID:25436913

Urinary C‑X‑C motif chemokine 13 is a noninvasive biomarker of antibody‑mediated renal allograft rejection.

PubMed

Chen, Dajin; Zhang, Jian; Peng, Wenhan; Weng, Chunhua; Chen, Jianghua

2018-06-22

Noninvasive monitoring methods of immune status are preferred by transplant recipients. The present study investigated whether urinary C‑X‑C motif chemokine 13 (CXCL13) had the potential to reflect ongoing immune processes within renal allografts. Using an ELISA assay, the level of urinary CXCL13 was quantified in a total of 146 renal allograft recipients and 40 healthy controls at scheduled intervals and at the time of the indicated or protocol biopsy. The results of the present study revealed that urinary CXCL13/creatinine (Cr) was lower in normal transplants compared with in those with acute tubular necrosis (ATN; P=0.001), chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN; P=0.01), and acute rejection (AR; P<0.0001), which was associated with a good diagnostic performance for AR [area under the curve (AUC)=0.818, P<0.0001). In addition, urinary CXCL13/Cr levels in patients with AR were also higher than that of patients with graft dysfunction but no rejection, including ATN and CAN (P=0.034). Notably, urinary CXCL13 distinguished between acute antibody‑mediated rejection (ABMR) and acute cellular rejection, with an AUC of 0.856. Furthermore, patients with steroid‑resistant AR exhibited significantly increased urinary CXCL13/Cr levels than patients with reversible AR (P=0.001). Additionally, elevated levels of urinary CXCL13/Cr within the first month of transplant were predictive of graft function at 3 and 6 months (P=0.044 and P=0.04, respectively). Collectively, the findings of the present study indicated that the noninvasive investigation of urinary CXCL13/Cr may be valuable for the detection of AR, particularly ABMR. In addition, high urinary CXCL13/Cr levels predicted a poor response to steroid treatment and compromised graft function.

Monitoring Global Sea Level: Eustatic Variations, Local Variations, and Solid Earth Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, James L.

2000-01-01

Project BIFROST (Baseline Inferences for Fennoscandian Rebound Observations. Sea-level and Tectonics) combines networks of continuously operating CPS receivers in Sweden and Finland to measure ongoing crustal deformation due to glacial isostatic adjustment, (CIA). We present an analysis of data collected in the years 1993-1998. We compare the CPS determinations of three-dimensional crustal motion to predictions calculated using the high resolution Fennoscandian deglaciation model recently proposed by Lambeck et al. We find that the the maximum observed uplift rate (approx. 10 mm/ yr) and the maximum predicted uplift rate agree to better than 1 mm/ yr. The patterns of uplift also agree quite well, although differences are discernible. The chi(exp 2) difference between predicted and GPS-observed radial rates is reduced by a factor of 5-6 compared to that for the "null" (no uplift) model, depending on whether a mean difference is first removed. The north components of velocity agree at about the same relative level. whereas the agreement for the east components is worse, a problem possibly related to the lack of bias fixing. We have also compared the values for the observed radial deformation rates to those based on sea-level rates from Baltic tide gauges. The weighted RMS difference between CPS and tide-gauge rates (after removing a mean) is 0.6 mm/ yr, giving an indication of the combined accuracy of the CPS and tide-gauge measurement systems. Spectral analysis of the time series of position estimates yields spectral indices in the range -1 to -2. An EOF analysis indicates, however, that much of this power is correlated among the sites. The correlation appears to be regional and falls off only slightly with distance. Some of this correlated noise is associated with snow accumulation on the antennas or, for those antennas with radomes, on the radomes. This problem has caused us to modify the radomes used several times, leading to one of our more significant sources of uncertainty.

Prediction of Turbulence-Generated Noise in Unheated Jets. Part 2; JeNo Users' Manual (Version 1.0)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khavaran, Abbas; Wolter, John D.; Koch, L. Danielle

2009-01-01

JeNo (Version 1.0) is a Fortran90 computer code that calculates the far-field sound spectral density produced by axisymmetric, unheated jets at a user specified observer location and frequency range. The user must provide a structured computational grid and a mean flow solution from a Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) code as input. Turbulence kinetic energy and its dissipation rate from a k-epsilon or k-omega turbulence model must also be provided. JeNo is a research code, and as such, its development is ongoing. The goal is to create a code that is able to accurately compute far-field sound pressure levels for jets at all observer angles and all operating conditions. In order to achieve this goal, current theories must be combined with the best practices in numerical modeling, all of which must be validated by experiment. Since the acoustic predictions from JeNo are based on the mean flow solutions from a RANS code, quality predictions depend on accurate aerodynamic input.This is why acoustic source modeling, turbulence modeling, together with the development of advanced measurement systems are the leading areas of research in jet noise research at NASA Glenn Research Center.

Immediate, irreversible, posttraumatic coma: a review indicating that bilateral brainstem injury rather than widespread hemispheric damage is essential for its production.

PubMed

Rosenblum, William I

2015-03-01

Traumatic brain injury may result in immediate long-lasting coma. Much attention has been given to predicting this outcome from the initial examination because these predictions can guide future treatment and interactions with the patient's family. Reports of diffuse axonal injury in these cases have ascribed the coma to widespread damage in the deep white matter that disconnects the hemispheres from the ascending arousal system (AAS). However, brainstem lesions are also present in such cases, and the AAS may be interrupted at the brainstem level. This review examines autopsy and imaging literature that assesses the presence, extent, and predictive value of lesions in both sites. The evidence suggests that diffuse injury to the deep white matter is not the usual cause of immediate long-lasting posttraumatic coma. Instead, brainstem lesions in the rostral pons or midbrain are almost always the cause but only if the lesions are bilateral. Moreover, recovery is possible if critical brainstem inputs to the AAS are spared. The precise localization of the latter is subject to ongoing investigation with advanced imaging techniques using magnets of very high magnetic gradients. Limited availability of this equipment plus the need to verify the findings continue to require meticulous autopsy examination.

Mental health issues from rising sea level in a remote coastal region of the Solomon Islands: current and future.

PubMed

Asugeni, James; MacLaren, David; Massey, Peter D; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

There is little published research about mental health and climate change in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise globally. The aim of this research was to document mental health issues related to sea-level rise for people in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. A cross-sectional study was carried out in six low-lying villages in East Malaita, Solomon Islands. The researcher travelled to villages by dugout canoe. In addition to quantitative, closed-ended questions, open-ended questions with villagers explored individual and community responses to rising sea level. Of 60 people asked, 57 completed the questionnaire. Of these, 90% reported having seen a change in the weather patterns. Nearly all participants reported that sea-level rise is affecting them and their family and is causing fear and worry on a personal and community level. Four themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: experience of physical impacts of climate change; worry about the future; adaptation to climate change; government response needed. Given predictions of ongoing sea-level rise in the Pacific it is essential that more research is conducted to further understand the human impact of climate change for small island states which will inform local, provincial and national-level mental health responses. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Adding Recognition Discriminability Index to the Delayed Recall Is Useful to Predict Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

PubMed

Russo, María J; Campos, Jorge; Vázquez, Silvia; Sevlever, Gustavo; Allegri, Ricardo F

2017-01-01

Background: Ongoing research is focusing on the identification of those individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are most likely to convert to Alzheimer's disease (AD). We investigated whether recognition memory tasks in combination with delayed recall measure of episodic memory and CSF biomarkers can predict MCI to AD conversion at 24-month follow-up. Methods: A total of 397 amnestic-MCI subjects from Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative were included. Logistic regression modeling was done to assess the predictive value of all RAVLT measures, risk factors such as age, sex, education, APOE genotype, and CSF biomarkers for progression to AD. Estimating adjusted odds ratios was used to determine which variables would produce an optimal predictive model, and whether adding tests of interaction between the RAVLT Delayed Recall and recognition measures (traditional score and d-prime) would improve prediction of the conversion from a-MCI to AD. Results: 112 (28.2%) subjects developed dementia and 285 (71.8%) subjects did not. Of the all included variables, CSF Aβ1-42 levels, RAVLT Delayed Recall, and the combination of RAVLT Delayed Recall and d-prime were predictive of progression to AD (χ 2 = 38.23, df = 14, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The combination of RAVLT Delayed Recall and d-prime measures may be predictor of conversion from MCI to AD in the ADNI cohort, especially in combination with amyloid biomarkers. A predictive model to help identify individuals at-risk for dementia should include not only traditional episodic memory measures (delayed recall or recognition), but also additional variables (d-prime) that allow the homogenization of the assessment procedures in the diagnosis of MCI.

EGASP: the human ENCODE Genome Annotation Assessment Project

PubMed Central

Guigó, Roderic; Flicek, Paul; Abril, Josep F; Reymond, Alexandre; Lagarde, Julien; Denoeud, France; Antonarakis, Stylianos; Ashburner, Michael; Bajic, Vladimir B; Birney, Ewan; Castelo, Robert; Eyras, Eduardo; Ucla, Catherine; Gingeras, Thomas R; Harrow, Jennifer; Hubbard, Tim; Lewis, Suzanna E; Reese, Martin G

2006-01-01

Background We present the results of EGASP, a community experiment to assess the state-of-the-art in genome annotation within the ENCODE regions, which span 1% of the human genome sequence. The experiment had two major goals: the assessment of the accuracy of computational methods to predict protein coding genes; and the overall assessment of the completeness of the current human genome annotations as represented in the ENCODE regions. For the computational prediction assessment, eighteen groups contributed gene predictions. We evaluated these submissions against each other based on a 'reference set' of annotations generated as part of the GENCODE project. These annotations were not available to the prediction groups prior to the submission deadline, so that their predictions were blind and an external advisory committee could perform a fair assessment. Results The best methods had at least one gene transcript correctly predicted for close to 70% of the annotated genes. Nevertheless, the multiple transcript accuracy, taking into account alternative splicing, reached only approximately 40% to 50% accuracy. At the coding nucleotide level, the best programs reached an accuracy of 90% in both sensitivity and specificity. Programs relying on mRNA and protein sequences were the most accurate in reproducing the manually curated annotations. Experimental validation shows that only a very small percentage (3.2%) of the selected 221 computationally predicted exons outside of the existing annotation could be verified. Conclusion This is the first such experiment in human DNA, and we have followed the standards established in a similar experiment, GASP1, in Drosophila melanogaster. We believe the results presented here contribute to the value of ongoing large-scale annotation projects and should guide further experimental methods when being scaled up to the entire human genome sequence. PMID:16925836

Predictive Mechanisms Are Not Involved the Same Way during Human-Human vs. Human-Machine Interactions: A Review

PubMed Central

Sahaï, Aïsha; Pacherie, Elisabeth; Grynszpan, Ouriel; Berberian, Bruno

2017-01-01

Nowadays, interactions with others do not only involve human peers but also automated systems. Many studies suggest that the motor predictive systems that are engaged during action execution are also involved during joint actions with peers and during other human generated action observation. Indeed, the comparator model hypothesis suggests that the comparison between a predicted state and an estimated real state enables motor control, and by a similar functioning, understanding and anticipating observed actions. Such a mechanism allows making predictions about an ongoing action, and is essential to action regulation, especially during joint actions with peers. Interestingly, the same comparison process has been shown to be involved in the construction of an individual's sense of agency, both for self-generated and observed other human generated actions. However, the implication of such predictive mechanisms during interactions with machines is not consensual, probably due to the high heterogeneousness of the automata used in the experimentations, from very simplistic devices to full humanoid robots. The discrepancies that are observed during human/machine interactions could arise from the absence of action/observation matching abilities when interacting with traditional low-level automata. Consistently, the difficulties to build a joint agency with this kind of machines could stem from the same problem. In this context, we aim to review the studies investigating predictive mechanisms during social interactions with humans and with automated artificial systems. We will start by presenting human data that show the involvement of predictions in action control and in the sense of agency during social interactions. Thereafter, we will confront this literature with data from the robotic field. Finally, we will address the upcoming issues in the field of robotics related to automated systems aimed at acting as collaborative agents. PMID:29081744

Adding Recognition Discriminability Index to the Delayed Recall Is Useful to Predict Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

PubMed Central

Russo, María J.; Campos, Jorge; Vázquez, Silvia; Sevlever, Gustavo; Allegri, Ricardo F.; Weiner, Michael W.

2017-01-01

Background: Ongoing research is focusing on the identification of those individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are most likely to convert to Alzheimer's disease (AD). We investigated whether recognition memory tasks in combination with delayed recall measure of episodic memory and CSF biomarkers can predict MCI to AD conversion at 24-month follow-up. Methods: A total of 397 amnestic-MCI subjects from Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative were included. Logistic regression modeling was done to assess the predictive value of all RAVLT measures, risk factors such as age, sex, education, APOE genotype, and CSF biomarkers for progression to AD. Estimating adjusted odds ratios was used to determine which variables would produce an optimal predictive model, and whether adding tests of interaction between the RAVLT Delayed Recall and recognition measures (traditional score and d-prime) would improve prediction of the conversion from a-MCI to AD. Results: 112 (28.2%) subjects developed dementia and 285 (71.8%) subjects did not. Of the all included variables, CSF Aβ1-42 levels, RAVLT Delayed Recall, and the combination of RAVLT Delayed Recall and d-prime were predictive of progression to AD (χ2 = 38.23, df = 14, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The combination of RAVLT Delayed Recall and d-prime measures may be predictor of conversion from MCI to AD in the ADNI cohort, especially in combination with amyloid biomarkers. A predictive model to help identify individuals at-risk for dementia should include not only traditional episodic memory measures (delayed recall or recognition), but also additional variables (d-prime) that allow the homogenization of the assessment procedures in the diagnosis of MCI. PMID:28344552

ACE and sIL-2R correlate with lung function improvement in sarcoidosis during methotrexate therapy.

PubMed

Vorselaars, Adriane D M; van Moorsel, Coline H M; Zanen, Pieter; Ruven, Henk J T; Claessen, Anke M E; van Velzen-Blad, Heleen; Grutters, Jan C

2015-02-01

In sarcoidosis, the search for disease activity markers that correlate with treatment response is ongoing. The aim of this study was to investigate the pattern of two proposed markers, serum angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) and soluble IL-2 receptor (sIL-2R) during methotrexate (MTX) therapy in sarcoidosis patients. We analysed 114 sarcoidosis patients who used MTX for six months, consisting of a subgroup of 76 patients with a pulmonary indication for treatment and a subgroup of 38 patients with an extra-pulmonary indication. ACE and sIL-2R serum levels were measured at baseline and after six months of treatment. Correlation coefficients (R) and odds ratios (ORs) were calculated to study the correlation and predictive effect of serum ACE and sIL-2R levels for pulmonary improvement. High baseline levels of ACE correlated significantly with lung function improvement after treatment (R = 0.45, p < 0.0001; stronger in the pulmonary subgroup R 0.57, p < 0.0001). ACE baseline levels >90 U/l predicted a 10% improvement in overall lung function (OR 3.55; CI 1.34-9.38), with the highest prediction level for 10% improvement in DLCO (OR 4.63; CI 1.23-17.4). After six months of MTX, mean ACE decreased with 17.2 U/l (p < 0.0001) and sIL-2R with 1850 pg/ml (p < 0.0001). Decreases in both ACE and sIL-2R correlated with an increase in lung function. The strongest correlation was found with change in DLCO in the pulmonary subgroup (ACE R = 0.63, P < 0.0001; sIL-2R R = 0.56, P < 0.0001). Baseline and serial serum ACE and sIL-2R levels correlate well with lung function improvement during MTX treatment. Serial measurements of these biomarkers are helpful in monitoring treatment effects in sarcoidosis patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Topics in Semantic Representation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Steyvers, Mark; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2007-01-01

Processing language requires the retrieval of concepts from memory in response to an ongoing stream of information. This retrieval is facilitated if one can infer the gist of a sentence, conversation, or document and use that gist to predict related concepts and disambiguate words. This article analyzes the abstract computational problem…

Self-Regulated Learning Behaviour in the Finance Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milligan, Colin; Fontana, Rosa Pia; Littlejohn, Allison; Margaryan, Anoush

2015-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to explore the role of self-regulatory behaviours in predicting workplace learning. As work practices in knowledge-intensive domains become more complex, individual workers must take greater responsibility for their ongoing learning and development. Design/methodology/approach: The study was conducted with knowledge…

Pharmacological mechanism-based drug safety assessment and prediction.

PubMed

Abernethy, D R; Woodcock, J; Lesko, L J

2011-06-01

Advances in cheminformatics, bioinformatics, and pharmacology in the context of biological systems are now at a point that these tools can be applied to mechanism-based drug safety assessment and prediction. The development of such predictive tools at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will complement ongoing efforts in drug safety that are focused on spontaneous adverse event reporting and active surveillance to monitor drug safety. This effort will require the active collaboration of scientists in the pharmaceutical industry, academe, and the National Institutes of Health, as well as those at the FDA, to reach its full potential. Here, we describe the approaches and goals for the mechanism-based drug safety assessment and prediction program.

Functional analysis screening for multiple topographies of problem behavior.

PubMed

Bell, Marlesha C; Fahmie, Tara A

2018-04-23

The current study evaluated a screening procedure for multiple topographies of problem behavior in the context of an ongoing functional analysis. Experimenters analyzed the function of a topography of primary concern while collecting data on topographies of secondary concern. We used visual analysis to predict the function of secondary topographies and a subsequent functional analysis to test those predictions. Results showed that a general function was accurately predicted for five of six (83%) secondary topographies. A specific function was predicted and supported for a subset of these topographies. The experimenters discuss the implication of these results for clinicians who have limited time for functional assessment. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Self-Leadership Change Project: The Continuation of an Ongoing Experiential Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, James I.; Kern, Dave; Tewari, Jitendra; Jones, Kenneth E.; Beemraj, Eshwar Prasad; Ettigi, Chaitra Ashok

2017-01-01

Purpose: The self-leadership change project (SLCP) is an ongoing program for senior level students at a regional university designed to provide hands-on experience in building self-management skills, which is considered a pre-requisite by many leaders and scholars (e.g. Drucker, 1996; Schaetti et al., 2008). The paper aims to discuss this issue.…

Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

2012-10-01

Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

Computational Analysis of a Prototype Martian Rotorcraft Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corfeld, Kelly J.; Strawn, Roger C.; Long, Lyle N.

2002-01-01

This paper presents Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes calculations for a prototype Martian rotorcraft. The computations are intended for comparison with an ongoing Mars rotor hover test at NASA Ames Research Center. These computational simulations present a new and challenging problem, since rotors that operate on Mars will experience a unique low Reynolds number and high Mach number environment. Computed results for the 3-D rotor differ substantially from 2-D sectional computations in that the 3-D results exhibit a stall delay phenomenon caused by rotational forces along the blade span. Computational results have yet to be compared to experimental data, but computed performance predictions match the experimental design goals fairly well. In addition, the computed results provide a high level of detail in the rotor wake and blade surface aerodynamics. These details provide an important supplement to the expected experimental performance data.

The Transition to Minimal Consciousness through the Evolution of Associative Learning

PubMed Central

Bronfman, Zohar Z.; Ginsburg, Simona; Jablonka, Eva

2016-01-01

The minimal state of consciousness is sentience. This includes any phenomenal sensory experience – exteroceptive, such as vision and olfaction; interoceptive, such as pain and hunger; or proprioceptive, such as the sense of bodily position and movement. We propose unlimited associative learning (UAL) as the marker of the evolutionary transition to minimal consciousness (or sentience), its phylogenetically earliest sustainable manifestation and the driver of its evolution. We define and describe UAL at the behavioral and functional level and argue that the structural-anatomical implementations of this mode of learning in different taxa entail subjective feelings (sentience). We end with a discussion of the implications of our proposal for the distribution of consciousness in the animal kingdom, suggesting testable predictions, and revisiting the ongoing debate about the function of minimal consciousness in light of our approach. PMID:28066282

Proton pumping accompanies calcification in foraminifera.

PubMed

Toyofuku, Takashi; Matsuo, Miki Y; de Nooijer, Lennart Jan; Nagai, Yukiko; Kawada, Sachiko; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Nomaki, Hidetaka; Tsuchiya, Masashi; Sakaguchi, Hide; Kitazato, Hiroshi

2017-01-27

Ongoing ocean acidification is widely reported to reduce the ability of calcifying marine organisms to produce their shells and skeletons. Whereas increased dissolution due to acidification is a largely inorganic process, strong organismal control over biomineralization influences calcification and hence complicates predicting the response of marine calcifyers. Here we show that calcification is driven by rapid transformation of bicarbonate into carbonate inside the cytoplasm, achieved by active outward proton pumping. Moreover, this proton flux is maintained over a wide range of pCO 2 levels. We furthermore show that a V-type H + ATPase is responsible for the proton flux and thereby calcification. External transformation of bicarbonate into CO 2 due to the proton pumping implies that biomineralization does not rely on availability of carbonate ions, but total dissolved CO 2 may not reduce calcification, thereby potentially maintaining the current global marine carbonate production.

Proton pumping accompanies calcification in foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyofuku, Takashi; Matsuo, Miki Y.; de Nooijer, Lennart Jan; Nagai, Yukiko; Kawada, Sachiko; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Nomaki, Hidetaka; Tsuchiya, Masashi; Sakaguchi, Hide; Kitazato, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

Ongoing ocean acidification is widely reported to reduce the ability of calcifying marine organisms to produce their shells and skeletons. Whereas increased dissolution due to acidification is a largely inorganic process, strong organismal control over biomineralization influences calcification and hence complicates predicting the response of marine calcifyers. Here we show that calcification is driven by rapid transformation of bicarbonate into carbonate inside the cytoplasm, achieved by active outward proton pumping. Moreover, this proton flux is maintained over a wide range of pCO2 levels. We furthermore show that a V-type H+ ATPase is responsible for the proton flux and thereby calcification. External transformation of bicarbonate into CO2 due to the proton pumping implies that biomineralization does not rely on availability of carbonate ions, but total dissolved CO2 may not reduce calcification, thereby potentially maintaining the current global marine carbonate production.

Aggregate-level lead exposure, gun violence, homicide, and rape.

PubMed

Boutwell, Brian B; Nelson, Erik J; Qian, Zhengmin; Vaughn, Michael G; Wright, John P; Beaver, Kevin M; Barnes, J C; Petkovsek, Melissa; Lewis, Roger; Schootman, Mario; Rosenfeld, Richard

2017-01-01

An increasing body of research has linked the geographic distribution of lead with various indicators of criminal and antisocial behavior. The current study, using data from an ongoing project related to lead exposure in St. Louis City, MO, analyzed the association between aggregate blood lead levels and specific indicators violent crime within the city. Ecological study. St. Louis, Missouri. Blood lead levels. Official reports of violent crimes were categorized as 1) crimes involving a firearm (yes/no), 2) assault crimes (with or without a firearm), 3) robbery crimes (with or without a firearm), 4) homicides and 5) rape. With the exception of rape, aggregate blood-lead levels were statistically significant predictors of violent crime at the census tract level. The risk ratios for each of the outcome measures were as follows: firearm crimes 1.03 (1.03-1.04), assault crimes 1.03 (1.02-1.03), robbery crimes 1.03 (1.02-1.04), homicide 1.03 (1.01, 1.04), and rape 1.01 (0.99-1.03). Extending prior research in St. Louis, results suggest that aggregated lead exposure at the census tract level predicted crime outcomes, even after accounting for important sociological variables. Moving forward, a more developed understanding of aggregate level crime may necessitate a shift toward studying the synergy between sociological and biological risk factors such as lead exposure.

Systematically evaluating read-across prediction and performance using a local validity approach characterized by chemical structure and bioactivity information

EPA Science Inventory

Read-across is a popular data gap filling technique within category and analogue approaches for regulatory purposes. Acceptance of read-across remains an ongoing challenge with several efforts underway for identifying and addressing uncertainties. Here we demonstrate an algorithm...

Transitioning Youth with Intellectual and Other Developmental Disabilities: Predicting Community Employment Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simonsen, Monica L.; Neubert, Debra A.

2013-01-01

Community employment outcomes were examined for 338 transitioning youth with intellectual and other developmental disabilities in one state 18 months after exiting public school. All transitioning youth received ongoing Developmental Disability agency funding. The majority of transitioning youth (57.1%) were engaged in sheltered or nonwork…

Grief and the Role of the Inner Representation of the Deceased.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marwit, Samuel J.; Klass, Dennis

1995-01-01

Studied whether memories of deceased play active roles in ongoing lives of survivors. Seventy-one people described a significant death. Four roles were reliably identified and labeled role model, situation specific guidance, values clarification, and remembrance formation. Role adoption was predicted by closeness of relationship and suddenness of…

Do Traditional Admissions Criteria Reflect Applicant Creativity?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pretz, Jean E.; Kaufman, James C.

2017-01-01

College admissions decisions have traditionally focused on high school academic performance and standardized test scores. An ongoing debate is the validity of these measures for predicting success in college; part of this debate includes how success is defined. One potential way of defining college success is a student's creative accomplishments.…

A Computational Model of Event Segmentation from Perceptual Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, Jeremy R.; Zacks, Jeffrey M.; Braver, Todd S.

2007-01-01

People tend to perceive ongoing continuous activity as series of discrete events. This partitioning of continuous activity may occur, in part, because events correspond to dynamic patterns that have recurred across different contexts. Recurring patterns may lead to reliable sequential dependencies in observers' experiences, which then can be used…

Stress and reproductive hormones in grizzly bears reflect nutritional benefits and social consequences of a salmon foraging niche.

PubMed

Bryan, Heather M; Darimont, Chris T; Paquet, Paul C; Wynne-Edwards, Katherine E; Smits, Judit E G

2013-01-01

Physiological indicators of social and nutritional stress can provide insight into the responses of species to changes in food availability. In coastal British Columbia, Canada, grizzly bears evolved with spawning salmon as an abundant but spatially and temporally constrained food source. Recent and dramatic declines in salmon might have negative consequences on bear health and ultimately fitness. To examine broadly the chronic endocrine effects of a salmon niche, we compared cortisol, progesterone, and testosterone levels in hair from salmon-eating bears from coastal BC (n = 75) with the levels in a reference population from interior BC lacking access to salmon (n = 42). As predicted, testosterone was higher in coastal bears of both sexes relative to interior bears, possibly reflecting higher social density on the coast mediated by salmon availability. We also investigated associations between the amount of salmon individual bears consumed (as measured by stable isotope analysis) and cortisol and testosterone in hair. Also as predicted, cortisol decreased with increasing dietary salmon and was higher after a year of low dietary salmon than after a year of high dietary salmon. These findings at two spatial scales suggest that coastal bears might experience nutritional or social stress in response to on-going salmon declines, providing novel insights into the effects of resource availability on fitness-related physiology.

Childhood maltreatment, adult attachment and psychotic symptomatology: a study in patients, siblings and controls.

PubMed

van Dam, D S; Korver-Nieberg, N; Velthorst, E; Meijer, C J; de Haan, L

2014-11-01

The association between childhood maltreatment (ChM) and psychotic disorders is well established. However, there is an ongoing debate about which factors account for this relationship. One explanation is that the relationship between ChM and psychosis is mediated by adult attachment style. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to investigate whether adult attachment style mediates the relationship between ChM and positive and negative symptomatology. We investigated the relation between ChM and psychotic symptoms, taking into account levels of (insecure) attachment, in 131 patients with psychotic illness, 123 siblings and 72 controls. ChM was assessed with the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ). Attachment dimensions of anxiety and avoidance were measured using the Psychosis Attachment Measure (PAM). In both patients and siblings, ChM predicted positive symptoms and this relationship was partly mediated by attachment style. This relationship was found to be stronger for siblings than for patients. ChM predicted negative symptoms in patients and siblings. In the patient sample, attachment style did not mediate the relationship between ChM and negative symptoms, whereas attachment style was found to be a mediator in the sibling sample. ChM was associated with positive and negative symptomatology in both patients and siblings. Particularly in siblings, the relationship between ChM and psychosis seems to be mediated by adult attachment style. Perhaps attachment style may play a more prominent role on a subclinical level.

Lessons from game theory about healthcare system price inflation: evidence from a community-level case study.

PubMed

Agee, Mark D; Gates, Zane

2013-02-01

Game theory is useful for identifying conditions under which individual stakeholders in a collective action problem interact in ways that are more cooperative and in the best interest of the collective. The literature applying game theory to healthcare markets predicts that when providers set prices for services autonomously and in a noncooperative fashion, the market will be susceptible to ongoing price inflation. We compare the traditional fee-for-service pricing framework with an alternative framework involving modified doctor, hospital and insurer pricing and incentive strategies. While the fee-for-service framework generally allows providers to set prices autonomously, the alternative framework constrains providers to interact more cooperatively. We use community-level provider and insurer data to compare provider and insurer costs and patient wellness under the traditional and modified pricing frameworks. The alternative pricing framework assumes (i) providers agree to manage all outpatient claims; (ii) the insurer agrees to manage all inpatient clams; and (iii) insurance premiums are tied to patients' healthy behaviours. Consistent with game theory predictions, the more cooperative alternative pricing framework benefits all parties by producing substantially lower administrative costs along with higher profit margins for the providers and the insurer. With insurance premiums tied to consumers' risk-reducing behaviours, the cost of insurance likewise decreases for both the consumer and the insurer.

Stress and Reproductive Hormones in Grizzly Bears Reflect Nutritional Benefits and Social Consequences of a Salmon Foraging Niche

PubMed Central

Bryan, Heather M.; Darimont, Chris T.; Paquet, Paul C.; Wynne-Edwards, Katherine E.; Smits, Judit E. G.

2013-01-01

Physiological indicators of social and nutritional stress can provide insight into the responses of species to changes in food availability. In coastal British Columbia, Canada, grizzly bears evolved with spawning salmon as an abundant but spatially and temporally constrained food source. Recent and dramatic declines in salmon might have negative consequences on bear health and ultimately fitness. To examine broadly the chronic endocrine effects of a salmon niche, we compared cortisol, progesterone, and testosterone levels in hair from salmon-eating bears from coastal BC (n = 75) with the levels in a reference population from interior BC lacking access to salmon (n = 42). As predicted, testosterone was higher in coastal bears of both sexes relative to interior bears, possibly reflecting higher social density on the coast mediated by salmon availability. We also investigated associations between the amount of salmon individual bears consumed (as measured by stable isotope analysis) and cortisol and testosterone in hair. Also as predicted, cortisol decreased with increasing dietary salmon and was higher after a year of low dietary salmon than after a year of high dietary salmon. These findings at two spatial scales suggest that coastal bears might experience nutritional or social stress in response to on-going salmon declines, providing novel insights into the effects of resource availability on fitness-related physiology. PMID:24312230

Pain-Related Suppression of Beta Oscillations Facilitates Voluntary Movement

PubMed Central

Misra, Gaurav; Ofori, Edward; Chung, Jae Woo; Coombes, Stephen A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Increased beta oscillations over sensorimotor cortex are antikinetic. Motor- and pain-related processes separately suppress beta oscillations over sensorimotor cortex leading to the prediction that ongoing pain should facilitate movement. In the current study, we used a paradigm in which voluntary movements were executed during an ongoing pain-eliciting stimulus to test the hypothesis that a pain-related suppression of beta oscillations would facilitate the initiation of a subsequent voluntary movement. Using kinematic measures, electromyography, and high-density electroencephalography, we demonstrate that ongoing pain leads to shorter reaction times without affecting the kinematics or accuracy of movement. Reaction time was positively correlated with beta power prior to movement in contralateral premotor areas. Our findings corroborate the view that beta-band oscillations are antikinetic and provide new evidence that pain primes the motor system for action. Our observations provide the first evidence that a pain-related suppression of beta oscillations over contralateral premotor areas leads to shorter reaction times for voluntary movement. PMID:26965905

Shuttle payload bay dynamic environments: Summary and conclusion report for STS flights 1-5 and 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oconnell, M.; Garba, J.; Kern, D.

1984-01-01

The vibration, acoustic and low frequency loads data from the first 5 shuttle flights are presented. The engineering analysis of that data is also presented. Vibroacoustic data from STS-9 are also presented because they represent the only data taken on a large payload. Payload dynamic environment predictions developed by the participation of various NASA and industrial centers are presented along with a comparison of analytical loads methodology predictions with flight data, including a brief description of the methodologies employed in developing those predictions for payloads. The review of prediction methodologies illustrates how different centers have approached the problems of developing shuttle dynamic environmental predictions and criteria. Ongoing research activities related to the shuttle dynamic environments are also described. Analytical software recently developed for the prediction of payload acoustic and vibration environments are also described.

Predicting response to EGFR inhibitors in metastatic colorectal cancer: current practice and future directions.

PubMed

Shankaran, Veena; Obel, Jennifer; Benson, Al B

2010-01-01

The identification of KRAS mutational status as a predictive marker of response to antibodies against the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) has been one of the most significant and practice-changing recent advances in colorectal cancer research. Recently, data suggesting a potential role for other markers (including BRAF mutations, loss of phosphatase and tension homologue deleted on chromosome ten expression, and phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase-AKT pathway mutations) in predicting response to anti-EGFR therapy have emerged. Ongoing clinical trials and correlative analyses are essential to definitively identify predictive markers and develop therapeutic strategies for patients who may not derive benefit from anti-EGFR therapy. This article reviews recent clinical trials supporting the predictive role of KRAS, recent changes to clinical guidelines and pharmaceutical labeling, investigational predictive molecular markers, and newer clinical trials targeting patients with mutated KRAS.

An Examination of Behavioral Rehearsal During Consultation as a Predictor of Training Outcomes

PubMed Central

Kendall, Philip C.; Ringle, Vanesa A.; Read, Kendra L.; Brodman, Douglas A.; Pimentel, Sandra S.; Beidas, Rinad S.

2013-01-01

The training literature suggests that ongoing support following initial therapist training enhances training outcomes, yet little is known about what occurs during ongoing support and what accounts for its effectiveness. The present study examined consultation sessions provided to 99 clinicians following training in cognitive-behavioral therapy for youth anxiety. The 104 recorded consultation sessions were coded for content and consultative methods. It was hypothesized that behavioral rehearsal (an active learning technique) would predict therapist adherence, skill, self-efficacy, and satisfaction at post-consultation. Regression analyses found no significant relation, however, clinician involvement during consultation sessions positively moderated the relationship between behavioral rehearsals and skill. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. PMID:23616234

Efficacy and safety of Ding-Kun-Dan for female infertility patients with predicted poor ovarian response undergoing in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Ma, Saihua; Ma, Ruihong; Xia, Tian; Afnan, Masoud; Song, Xueru; Xu, Fengqin; Hao, Guimin; Zhu, Fangfang; Han, Jingpei; Zhao, Zhimei

2018-02-20

Women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) who have a predicted poor ovarian response (POR) present a challenge for reproductive medicine specialists. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is commonly used in China for such patients, in the belief that it will improve the ovarian response and ultimately increase pregnancy rates. However, there is a lack of high-quality evidence about the effect of TCM on improving ovarian response in such patients. The purpose of this study is to evaluate ongoing viable pregnancy rate at 12 weeks' gestation and related indicators of ovarian response in fertile women who have a predicted poor ovarian response having immediate versus delayed IVF/ICSI after 3 months of Ding-Kun-Dan (DKD) pre-treatment. This study is a multicenter, randomized controlled, parallel-group, phase III, superiority clinical trial. Two hundred and seventy-eight eligible female infertility patients with POR will be included in the study and randomly allocated into an immediate treatment group and a DKD group in a 1:1 ratio. Both groups will receive IVF or ICSI as a standard treatment while in the DKD group, a commercially available Chinese medicine, DKD, will be administrated for 3 months before the IVF/ICSI cycle starts. The primary outcome of the study is the ongoing pregnancy rate at 12 weeks' gestation. The secondary outcomes include total gonadotropin dosage, duration of stimulation, estradiol (E 2 ) and progesterone (P) levels on human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) trigger day, cycle cancellation rate, number of oocytes retrieved, high-quality embryo rate, biochemical pregnancy rate, the change of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), and E 2 levels and all side effects, safety outcomes, and any adverse events. The protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin university of TCM (approval no. TYLL2017[K] 004). IVF/ICSI is increasingly used to treat couples desiring a baby. Many of these women will have poor ovarian function. In China, DKD is commonly used for these patients prior to undergoing IVF/ICSI. There is no effective treatment for poor ovarian response in Western medicine currently. It is important, therefore, to undertake this randomized control trial to determine whether DKD is effective or not. Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ID: ChiCTR-IOR-17011697 . Registered on 19 June 2017.

Effects of aberrant gamma frequency oscillations on prepulse inhibition.

PubMed

Jones, Nigel C; Anderson, Paul; Rind, Gil; Sullivan, Caley; van den Buuse, Maarten; O'Brien, Terence J

2014-10-01

Emerging literature implicates abnormalities in gamma frequency oscillations in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia, with hypofunction of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors implicated as a key factor. Prepulse inhibition (PPI) is a behavioural measure of sensorimotor gating, which is disrupted in schizophrenia. We studied relationships between ongoing and sensory-evoked gamma oscillations and PPI using pharmacological interventions designed to increase gamma oscillations (ketamine, MK-801); reduce gamma oscillations (LY379268); or disrupt PPI (amphetamine). We predicted that elevating ongoing gamma power would lead to increased 'neural noise' in cortical circuits, dampened sensory-evoked gamma responses and disrupted behaviour. Wistar rats were implanted with EEG recording electrodes. They received ketamine (5 mg/kg), MK-801 (0.16 mg/kg), amphetamine (0.5 mg/kg), LY379268 (3 mg/kg) or vehicle and underwent PPI sessions with concurrent EEG recording. Ketamine and MK-801 increased the power of ongoing gamma oscillations and caused time-matched disruptions of PPI, while amphetamine marginally affected ongoing gamma power. In contrast, LY379268 reduced ongoing gamma power, but had no effect on PPI. The sensory gamma response evoked by the prepulse was reduced following treatment with all psychotomimetics, associating with disruptions in PPI. This was most noticeable following treatment with NMDA receptor antagonists. We found that ketamine and MK-801 increase ongoing gamma power and reduce evoked gamma power, both of which are related to disruptions in sensorimotor gating. This appears to be due to antagonism of NMDA receptors, since amphetamine and LY379268 differentially impacted these outcomes and possess different neuropharmacological substrates. Aberrant gamma frequency oscillations caused by NMDA receptor hypofunction may mediate the sensory processing deficits observed in schizophrenia.

Prestimulus EEG Power Predicts Conscious Awareness But Not Objective Visual Performance

PubMed Central

Veniero, Domenica

2017-01-01

Abstract Prestimulus oscillatory neural activity has been linked to perceptual outcomes during performance of psychophysical detection and discrimination tasks. Specifically, the power and phase of low frequency oscillations have been found to predict whether an upcoming weak visual target will be detected or not. However, the mechanisms by which baseline oscillatory activity influences perception remain unclear. Recent studies suggest that the frequently reported negative relationship between α power and stimulus detection may be explained by changes in detection criterion (i.e., increased target present responses regardless of whether the target was present/absent) driven by the state of neural excitability, rather than changes in visual sensitivity (i.e., more veridical percepts). Here, we recorded EEG while human participants performed a luminance discrimination task on perithreshold stimuli in combination with single-trial ratings of perceptual awareness. Our aim was to investigate whether the power and/or phase of prestimulus oscillatory activity predict discrimination accuracy and/or perceptual awareness on a trial-by-trial basis. Prestimulus power (3–28 Hz) was inversely related to perceptual awareness ratings (i.e., higher ratings in states of low prestimulus power/high excitability) but did not predict discrimination accuracy. In contrast, prestimulus oscillatory phase did not predict awareness ratings or accuracy in any frequency band. These results provide evidence that prestimulus α power influences the level of subjective awareness of threshold visual stimuli but does not influence visual sensitivity when a decision has to be made regarding stimulus features. Hence, we find a clear dissociation between the influence of ongoing neural activity on conscious awareness and objective performance. PMID:29255794

Seasonal-to-decadal predictability in the Nordic Seas and Arctic with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Counillon, Francois; Kimmritz, Madlen; Keenlyside, Noel; Wang, Yiguo; Bethke, Ingo

2017-04-01

The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model combines the Norwegian Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method. The prediction skills of different versions of the system (with 30 members) are tested in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic region. Comparing the hindcasts branched from a SST-only assimilation run with a free ensemble run of 30 members, we are able to dissociate the predictability rooted in the external forcing from the predictability harvest from SST derived initial conditions. The latter adds predictability in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the Nordic Seas regions and overall there is very little degradation or forecast drift. Combined assimilation of SST and T-S profiles further improves the prediction skill in the Nordic Seas and into the Arctic. These lead to multi-year predictability in the high-latitudes. Ongoing developments of strongly coupled assimilation (ocean and sea ice) of ice concentration in idealized twin experiment will be shown, as way to further enhance prediction skill in the Arctic.

Childhood Lead Exposure After the Phaseout of Leaded Gasoline: An Ecological Study of School-Age Children in Kampala, Uganda

PubMed Central

Graber, Lauren K.; Asher, Daniel; Anandaraja, Natasha; Bopp, Richard F.; Merrill, Karen; Cullen, Mark R.; Luboga, Samuel; Trasande, Leonardo

2010-01-01

Background Tetraethyl lead was phased out of gasoline in Uganda in 2005. Recent mitigation of an important source of lead exposure suggests examination and re-evaluation of the prevalence of childhood lead poisoning in this country. Ongoing concerns persist about exposure from the Kiteezi landfill in Kampala, the country’s capital. Objectives We determined blood lead distributions among Kampala schoolchildren and identified risk factors for elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs; ≥ 10 μg/dL). Analytical approach Using a stratified, cross-sectional design, we obtained blood samples, questionnaire data, and soil and dust samples from the homes and schools of 163 4- to 8-year-old children representing communities with different risks of exposure. Results The mean blood lead level (BLL) was 7.15 μg/dL; 20.5% of the children were found to have EBLL. Multivariable analysis found participants whose families owned fewer household items, ate canned food, or used the community water supply as their primary water source to have higher BLLs and likelihood of EBLLs. Distance < 0.5 mi from the landfill was the factor most strongly associated with increments in BLL (5.51 μg/dL, p < 0.0001) and likelihood of EBLL (OR = 4.71, p = 0.0093). Dust/soil lead was not significantly predictive of BLL/EBLL. Conclusions Lead poisoning remains highly prevalent among school-age children in Kampala. Confirmatory studies are needed, but further efforts are indicated to limit lead exposure from the landfill, whether through water contamination or through another mechanism. Although African nations are to be lauded for the removal of lead from gasoline, this study serves as a reminder that other sources of exposure to this potent neurotoxicant merit ongoing attention. PMID:20194080

Context cue focality influences strategic prospective memory monitoring.

PubMed

Hunter Ball, B; Bugg, Julie M

2018-02-12

Monitoring the environment for the occurrence of prospective memory (PM) targets is a resource-demanding process that produces cost (e.g., slower responding) to ongoing activities. However, research suggests that individuals are able to monitor strategically by using contextual cues to reduce monitoring in contexts in which PM targets are not expected to occur. In the current study, we investigated the processes supporting context identification (i.e., determining whether or not the context is appropriate for monitoring) by testing the context cue focality hypothesis. This hypothesis predicts that the ability to monitor strategically depends on whether the ongoing task orients attention to the contextual cues that are available to guide monitoring. In Experiment 1, participants performed an ongoing lexical decision task and were told that PM targets (TOR syllable) would only occur in word trials (focal context cue condition) or in items starting with consonants (nonfocal context cue condition). In Experiment 2, participants performed an ongoing first letter judgment (consonant/vowel) task and were told that PM targets would only occur in items starting with consonants (focal context cue condition) or in word trials (nonfocal context cue condition). Consistent with the context cue focality hypothesis, strategic monitoring was only observed during focal context cue conditions in which the type of ongoing task processing automatically oriented attention to the relevant features of the contextual cue. These findings suggest that strategic monitoring is dependent on limited-capacity processing resources and may be relatively limited when the attentional demands of context identification are sufficiently high.

Specialized CFD Grid Generation Methods for Near-Field Sonic Boom Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Michael A.; Campbell, Richard L.; Elmiligui, Alaa; Cliff, Susan E.; Nayani, Sudheer N.

2014-01-01

Ongoing interest in analysis and design of low sonic boom supersonic transports re- quires accurate and ecient Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools. Specialized grid generation techniques are employed to predict near- eld acoustic signatures of these con- gurations. A fundamental examination of grid properties is performed including grid alignment with ow characteristics and element type. The issues a ecting the robustness of cylindrical surface extrusion are illustrated. This study will compare three methods in the extrusion family of grid generation methods that produce grids aligned with the freestream Mach angle. These methods are applied to con gurations from the First AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop.

An Evaluation and Redesign of the Conflict Prediction and Trial Planning Planview Graphical User Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laudeman, Irene V.; Brasil, Connie L.; Stassart, Philippe

1998-01-01

The Planview Graphical User Interface (PGUI) is the primary display of air traffic for the Conflict Prediction and Trial Planning, function of the Center TRACON Automation System. The PGUI displays air traffic information that assists the user in making decisions related to conflict detection, conflict resolution, and traffic flow management. The intent of this document is to outline the human factors issues related to the design of the conflict prediction and trial planning portions of the PGUI, document all human factors related design changes made to the PGUI from December 1996 to September 1997, and outline future plans for the ongoing PGUI design.

Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

2014-11-01

Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterising the ambient sound environment for infants in intensive care wards.

PubMed

Shoemark, Helen; Harcourt, Edward; Arnup, Sarah J; Hunt, Rod W

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study is to characterise ambient sound levels of paediatric and neonatal intensive care units in an old and new hospital according to current standards. The sound environment was surveyed for 24-h data collection periods (n = 80) in the Neonatal and Paediatric Intensive Care Units (NICUs and PICUs) and Special Care Nursery of the old and new Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne. The ambient sound environment was characterised as the proportion of time the ongoing ambient sound met standard benchmarks, the mean 5-s sound levels and the number and duration of noise events. In the old hospital, none of the data collection periods in the NICU and PICU met the standard benchmark for ongoing ambient sound, while only 5 of the 22 data collection periods in the new hospital met the recommended level. There was no change in proportion of time at recommended Leq between the old and the new Special Care Nursery. There was strong evidence for a difference in the mean number of events >65 dBA (Lmax ) in the old and new hospital (rate ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.73 to 0.92, P = 0.001). The NICU and PICU were above 50 dBA in 75% of all data collection periods, with ventilatory equipment associated with higher ongoing ambient sound levels. The ongoing ambient sound suggests that the background sound environment of the new hospital is not different to the old hospital. However, there may be a reduction in the number of noise events. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2016 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

A novel Bayesian approach to predicting reductions in HIV incidence following increased testing interventions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada.

PubMed

Irvine, Michael A; Konrad, Bernhard P; Michelow, Warren; Balshaw, Robert; Gilbert, Mark; Coombs, Daniel

2018-03-01

Increasing HIV testing rates among high-risk groups should lead to increased numbers of cases being detected. Coupled with effective treatment and behavioural change among individuals with detected infection, increased testing should also reduce onward incidence of HIV in the population. However, it can be difficult to predict the strengths of these effects and thus the overall impact of testing. We construct a mathematical model of an ongoing HIV epidemic in a population of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men. The model incorporates different levels of infection risk, testing habits and awareness of HIV status among members of the population. We introduce a novel Bayesian analysis that is able to incorporate potentially unreliable sexual health survey data along with firm clinical diagnosis data. We parameterize the model using survey and diagnostic data drawn from a population of men in Vancouver, Canada. We predict that increasing testing frequency will yield a small-scale but long-term impact on the epidemic in terms of new infections averted, as well as a large short-term impact on numbers of detected cases. These effects are predicted to occur even when a testing intervention is short-lived. We show that a short-lived but intensive testing campaign can potentially produce many of the same benefits as a campaign that is less intensive but of longer duration. © 2018 The Author(s).

Perpetuating the cycle of violence in South African low-income communities: attraction to violence in young men exposed to continuous threat

PubMed Central

Hinsberger, Martina; Sommer, Jessica; Kaminer, Debra; Holtzhausen, Leon; Weierstall, Roland; Seedat, Soraya; Madikane, Solomon; Elbert, Thomas

2016-01-01

Background Life in the low-income urban communities of South Africa is imprinted by a cycle of violence in which young males predominantly are in the roles of both victim and perpetrator. There is some evidence that adolescents who show an attraction to cruelty can display high levels of psychosocial functioning despite the presence of posttraumatic stress symptoms. However, the role of appetitive aggression in the context of ongoing threats and daily hassles is not yet fully understood. Objective In this study, we examine the role of attraction to violence in areas of continuous traumatic stress exposure and its effect on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) severity and violence perpetration. Method A sample of 290 young males from two low-income Cape Town communities was surveyed. We assessed appetitive aggression with the Appetitive Aggression Scale (AAS), PTSD symptoms with the PTSD Symptom Scale-Interview, the number of witnessed and self-experienced traumatic event types with an adaptation of the Child Exposure to Community Violence questionnaire, and the number of perpetrated violence event types with an adapted offence checklist from the AAS. Results Appetitive aggression scores were predicted by witnessed as well as self-experienced traumatic events. Higher appetitive aggression scores resulted in higher levels of PTSD severity and perpetrated violence. Conclusions Young males living in the low-income areas of South Africa may develop an attraction to cruelty in response to exposure to violence. Their willingness to fight in turn can increase the likelihood of continued violent behaviour. In contrast to previous research from postconflict areas, appetitive aggression and engagement in violence do not prevent the development of PTSD, but are instead associated with higher levels of posttraumatic stress. PTSD symptoms such as avoidance and hyperarousal, as well as an attraction to cruelty and thus the willingness to fight, might support survival in areas of ongoing conflict, but at the same time they could fuel the cycle of violence. PMID:26747683

Perpetuating the cycle of violence in South African low-income communities: attraction to violence in young men exposed to continuous threat.

PubMed

Hinsberger, Martina; Sommer, Jessica; Kaminer, Debra; Holtzhausen, Leon; Weierstall, Roland; Seedat, Soraya; Madikane, Solomon; Elbert, Thomas

2016-01-01

Life in the low-income urban communities of South Africa is imprinted by a cycle of violence in which young males predominantly are in the roles of both victim and perpetrator. There is some evidence that adolescents who show an attraction to cruelty can display high levels of psychosocial functioning despite the presence of posttraumatic stress symptoms. However, the role of appetitive aggression in the context of ongoing threats and daily hassles is not yet fully understood. In this study, we examine the role of attraction to violence in areas of continuous traumatic stress exposure and its effect on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) severity and violence perpetration. A sample of 290 young males from two low-income Cape Town communities was surveyed. We assessed appetitive aggression with the Appetitive Aggression Scale (AAS), PTSD symptoms with the PTSD Symptom Scale-Interview, the number of witnessed and self-experienced traumatic event types with an adaptation of the Child Exposure to Community Violence questionnaire, and the number of perpetrated violence event types with an adapted offence checklist from the AAS. Appetitive aggression scores were predicted by witnessed as well as self-experienced traumatic events. Higher appetitive aggression scores resulted in higher levels of PTSD severity and perpetrated violence. Young males living in the low-income areas of South Africa may develop an attraction to cruelty in response to exposure to violence. Their willingness to fight in turn can increase the likelihood of continued violent behaviour. In contrast to previous research from postconflict areas, appetitive aggression and engagement in violence do not prevent the development of PTSD, but are instead associated with higher levels of posttraumatic stress. PTSD symptoms such as avoidance and hyperarousal, as well as an attraction to cruelty and thus the willingness to fight, might support survival in areas of ongoing conflict, but at the same time they could fuel the cycle of violence.

Heart rate variability among women undergoing in vitro fertilization treatment: Its predictive ability for pregnancy

PubMed Central

Wu, Meng-Hsing; Su, Pei-Fang; Chen, Kuan-Ya; Tie, Tung-Hee; Ke, Hsu-Cheng; Chen, Hau; Su, Yu-Chi; Su, Yu-Chen

2018-01-01

Objective This study aimed to assess predictive ability of heart rate variability (HRV) for pregnancy outcomes with in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment. Research design and method A total of 180 women with 261 cycles of IVF and 211 embryo transfers (ETs) were analyzed. HRV was measured at four times during IVF treatment: the first date of menstruation, r-HCG (Ovidrel) administration, and before and after ET. Pregnancy indicators included chemical pregnancy, ongoing pregnancy (> 10 weeks), and live birth (pregnancy > 24 weeks). Mixed effect models were applied to identify predictors for IVF pregnancy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess prediction models for pregnancy. Results The HRV values increased during IVF treatment and then decreased after ET. The trend of changes in HRV values during IVF treatment was significant among patients with chemical pregnancy (p < 0.01) and those with live birth (p = 0.02). Women without pregnancy had lower HRV compared to those with IVF pregnancy (p < 0.05). With a one unit increase in HRV difference before and after ET, the odds of chemical pregnancy decreased by 18% (odds ratio; OR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.70–0.97, p < 0.02). With a one year increase in maternal age, the odds decreased by 16% (OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.76–0.93, p < 0.01), 25% (OR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58–0.93, p = 0.02), and 28% (OR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.54–0.91, p = 0.01) for chemical pregnancy, ongoing pregnancy, and live birth, respectively. The AUCs were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.70, 0.84), 0.89 (0.79, 0.98), and 0.91(0.83, 0.99) for the prediction models for chemical pregnancy, ongoing pregnancy, and live birth, respectively. Conclusions Reduced HRV may be an indicator for low chance of IVF pregnancy. The changes in HRV before and after ET and maternal age might be prognostic predictors of IVF pregnancy. PMID:29529100

Low-level alcohol consumption during adolescence and its impact on cognitive control development.

PubMed

Jurk, Sarah; Mennigen, Eva; Goschke, Thomas; Smolka, Michael N

2018-01-01

Adolescence is a critical period for maturation of cognitive control and most adolescents start experimenting with alcohol around that time. On the one hand, recent studies indicate that low control abilities predict future problematic alcohol use. On the other hand, binge drinking during young adulthood can (further) impair cognitive control. However, so far no study examined the effects of low-level alcohol use during adolescence. In the present longitudinal fMRI study, we therefore investigated the development of cognitive control in a community-based sample of 92 adolescents at ages 14, 16 and 18. Two different cognitive control functions, i.e. inhibition of pre-potent responses (operationalized by incongruence effects) and switching between different task sets, were measured within one task. Alcohol use in our sample was low (mean: 54 g/week at age 18). The study revealed that neither behavioural nor neural measures of cognitive control function at age 14 predicted alcohol use at age 18 but confirmed established predictors such as gender and personality. As expected, from age 14 to 18, cognitive control abilities were improving (decreased reaction times and/or errors), and activation of cognitive control networks (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and pre-supplementary motor area) during incongruent trials increased. Unexpectedly, higher alcohol consumption during adolescence was associated with a more pronounced increase in cognitive performance and a smaller increase of neural activation when incongruent trials afforded inhibitory control. We conclude that low-level alcohol use during adolescence does not severely impair ongoing maturation of cognitive control abilities and networks. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

The Rancho Bernardo Study: 40 years studying why women have less heart disease than men and how diabetes modifies women’s usual cardiac protection

PubMed Central

Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Forty years ago, few cohort studies of cardiovascular disease (CVD) included women and fewer still included diabetes or glycemia as a risk factor. I describe here the Rancho Bernardo Study (RBS), a single-site, >40-year cohort study of sex differences in heart disease and how diabetes modifies women’s natural cardioprotection. More than 6000 participants were followed for morbidity and mortality, with nearly 3000 survivors (and death certificates for >85% of decedents). In RBS more than half of diabetes was undiagnosed without an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT); more women than men had isolated post-challenge hyperglycemia (IPH) as their only glucose evidence of diabetes; men had more diabetes than women, with higher fasting but lower post-challenge glucose levels than women; women with diabetes had more classical CVD risk factors than men; excess risk-factor clustering partially explained how diabetes eradicates female cardioprotection. Post-challenge glucose was a stronger CVD risk factor than fasting glucose. Endogenous insulin was not an independent CVD risk factor in women or men. Men with higher testosterone levels developed less diabetes and had fewer metabolic syndrome components. In men higher total testosterone levels predicted a reduced risk of all-cause and CVD but not cancer mortality. In women both extremes of bioavailable testosterone predicted fatal coronary heart disease but not all-cause mortality. Summary point estimates from large systematic reviews of individual data have replicated most RBS findings. Ongoing research can further clarify how diabetes modifies women’s cardioprotection from mid-life to old age. PMID:24187655

Presentation to Office of Surface Mines about use of LEAF in evaluating use of CCRs in mine reclamation

EPA Science Inventory

Providing information on new EPA methods that predict environmental release based on changing environmental conditions. The purpose is to determine if OSM needs support on their ongoing rulemaking. According to OSWER, there is a need and OSM is anxious to meet with us particula...

Developing a prediction model for Armillaria solidipes in Arizona

Treesearch

N. B. Klopfenstein; J. W Hanna; M. L. Fairweather; J. D. Shaw; R. Mathiasen; C. Hoffman; E. Nelson; M. -S. Kim; A. L. Ross-Davis

2012-01-01

In 2010, a collaborative project was started to determine the distribution of Armillaria solidipes (= A. ostoyae) in Arizona. The methods and preliminary accomplishments of the 2010 and 2011 (ongoing) field surveys/collections are summarized. During the next phase of this project, surveys will be completed and remaining Armillaria isolates will be identified using DNA-...

Runoff delay exerts a strong control on the field-scale removal of manure-borne fecal bacteria with runoff

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The microbial safety of surface waters is an ongoing issue which is threatened by the transport of manure-borne bacteria to water sources used for irrigation or recreation. Predictive modeling has become an effective tool to forecast the microbial quality of water duringprecipitation events, however...

Maternal overweight predicts infant caloric intake from complimentary foods and weight-for-length at age 6 months

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We assessed the role of maternal overweight on infant dietary intake and body size during the first 6 months of life. Participants were from the Beginnings study, an on-going, longitudinal cohort. Trained research assistants measured infant weight and length; weight-for-length percentiles (WL perc...

Memory and Suggestibility in Maltreated Children: Age, Stress Arousal, Dissociation, and Psychopathology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eisen, Mitchell L.; Qin, Jianjian; Goodman, Gail S.; Davis, Suzanne L.

2002-01-01

This study assessed 3- to 17-year-olds' memory and suggestibility in the context of ongoing child maltreatment investigations. Results from 189 subjects indicated that general psychopathology, short-term memory, and intellectual ability predicted facets of children's memory performance. Older compared to young children evinced fewer memory errors…

Closing the prediction gap between agricultural nutrient losses and riparian zone ecology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay is an ongoing concern and, as the more obvious and direct contributors are mitigated, focus is moving upstream to the agricultural headwaters of the basin. TMDLs and Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs) have been developed by all states in the basin to co...

CURRENT VFARS ONGOING RESEARCH AND WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE TO EVALUATE THE VFARS CONCEPT AND DETERMINE ITS FEASIBILITY

EPA Science Inventory

The VFARs concept predicts that pathogens can be identified using structural similarities among virulence genes from diverse species. This concept is of interest to the EPA for several reasons: the Agency's need to discriminate between virulent and avirulent isolates of pathogen...

Parent-Teacher Conferences: A Tip Sheet for Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Educational Horizons, 2012

2012-01-01

Parent-teacher conferences are an important component of ongoing home-school communication and family involvement in your classroom. Did you also know that home-school communication predicts positive outcomes for students and for schools? Although you may already be working hard to engage parents in their children's education, this tip sheet is…

Hillslope hydrology research at Caspar Creek

Treesearch

Elizabeth T. Keppeler; Peter H. Cafferata

1991-01-01

As part of the ongoing Caspar Creek Watershed Study on Jackson Demonstration State Forest, researchers from the US Forest Service and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection are investigating subsurface drainage in the headwaters of the basin. In order to predict how land use practices will impact stream systems, and hence habitats for aquatic...

Predicting First-Grade Reading Performance from Kindergarten Response to Tier 1 Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al Otaiba, Stephanie; Folsom, Jessica S.; Schatschneider, Christopher; Wanzek, Jeanne; Greulich, Luana; Meadows, Jane; Li, Zhi; Connor, Carol M.

2011-01-01

Many schools are implementing multitier response-to-intervention (RTI) models to reduce reading difficulties. This study was part of our larger ongoing longitudinal RTI investigation within the Florida Learning Disabilities Center grant and was conducted in 7 ethnically and socioeconomically diverse schools. We observed reading instruction in 20…

[Locally advanced head and neck cancers: recommendations of an expert panel and perspectives for the use of TPF regimen (docetaxel, cisplatin and fluoro-uracil) as induction therapy].

PubMed

Bardet, E; Bourhis, J; Cals, L; Fayette, J; Guigay, J; Hans, S; Saint-Guily, J Lacau; Lagarde, F; Lallemant, B; Milano, G; Rolland, F; Lefebvre, J-L

2009-10-01

The purpose of the present article was to evaluate indications, regimens, treatment modalities, and predictive factors of response to treatment in locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). An expert panel including otolaryngology and head and neck surgery specialists, oncologists, radiotherapists and biologists analyzed the literature providing a synthesis and giving some recommendations. Findings from the main randomized phase III trials highlight that the TPF regimen (docetaxel, cisplatin, fluorouracil) represent a preferential option when induction chemotherapy is indicated in either operable or non-operable patients. Given the potential fragility of patients presenting with SCCHN, treatment modalities in routine use require applying preventive measures and tailored follow-up according to each patient's profile. As regards predictive factors of response to TPF regimen, no factor is currently validated, but ongoing trials should provide better knowledge. Progresses in induction chemotherapy have allowed improving the prognosis of patients with locally advanced SCCHN. The TPF regimen represents a major improvement in this indication, and ongoing strategic clinical trials should refine its indications.

Spousal Coping Strategies in the Shadow of Terrorism.

PubMed

Shechory-Bitton, Mally; Cohen-Louck, Keren

2017-11-01

The present study focuses on spousal differences in reaction to ongoing exposure to terror and security threats. Sixty-eight married couples with children living in a region exposed to ongoing security threats were evaluated. All participants completed questionnaires on objective exposure (number of incidents) and subjective exposure (sense of fear) to terrorism and security threats, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, and their coping strategies with this ongoing exposure. Mothers reported higher levels of fear and PTSD symptoms, although their objective levels of exposure did not differ from those of their husbands. Similarities were found in coping strategies adopted by mothers and fathers to cope with life in the shadow of terrorism. Both mothers and fathers integrated emotion- and problem-focused coping strategies, with greater use of the latter. These similarities partially contradict research findings suggesting gender differences in coping with exposure to security threats. The results support the need for further research into investigating the role of dyadic coping in the context of prolonged exposure to security threats.

Individualized decision-making in IVF: calculating the chances of pregnancy.

PubMed

van Loendersloot, L L; van Wely, M; Repping, S; Bossuyt, P M M; van der Veen, F

2013-11-01

Are we able to develop a model to calculate the chances of pregnancy prior to the start of the first IVF cycle as well as after one or more failed cycles? Our prediction model enables the accurate individualized calculation of the probability of an ongoing pregnancy with IVF. To improve counselling, patient selection and clinical decision-making in IVF, a number of prediction models have been developed. These models are of limited use as they were developed before current clinical and laboratory protocols were established. This was a cohort study. The development set included 2621 cycles in 1326 couples who had been treated with IVF or ICSI between January 2001 and July 2009. The validation set included additional data from 515 cycles in 440 couples treated between August 2009 and April 2011. The outcome of interest was an ongoing pregnancy after transfer of fresh or frozen-thawed embryos from the same stimulated IVF cycle. If a couple became pregnant after an IVF/ICSI cycle, the follow-up was at a gestational age of at least 11 weeks. Women treated with IVF or ICSI between January 2001 and April 2011 in a university hospital. IVF/ICSI cycles were excluded in the case of oocyte or embryo donation, surgically retrieved spermatozoa, patients positive for human immunodeficiency virus, modified natural IVF and cycles cancelled owing to poor ovarian stimulation, ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome or other unexpected medical or non-medical reasons. Thirteen variables were included in the final prediction model. For all cycles, these were female age, duration of subfertility, previous ongoing pregnancy, male subfertility, diminished ovarian reserve, endometriosis, basal FSH and number of failed IVF cycles. After the first cycle: fertilization, number of embryos, mean morphological score per Day 3 embryo, presence of 8-cell embryos on Day 3 and presence of morulae on Day 3 were also included. In validation, the model had moderate discriminative capacity (c-statistic 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.73) but calibrated well, with a range from 0.01 to 0.56 in calculated probabilities. In our study, the outcome of interest was ongoing pregnancy. Live birth may have been a more appropriate outcome, although only 1-2% of all ongoing pregnancies result in late miscarriage or stillbirth. The model was based on data from a single centre. The IVF model presented here is the first to calculate the chances of an ongoing pregnancy with IVF, both for the first cycle and after any number of failed cycles. The generalizability of the model to other clinics has to be evaluated more extensively in future studies (geographical validation). Centres with higher or lower success rates could use the model, after recalibration, by adjusting the intercept to reflect the IVF success rates in their centre. This project was funded by the NutsOhra foundation (Grant 1004-179). The NutsOhra foundation had no role in the development of our study, in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in writing of the manuscript, and in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. There were no competing interests.

1986-87 atomic mass predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haustein, P.E.

A project to perform a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions has recently been concluded and will be published shortly in Atomic Data and Nuclear Data Tables. The project evolved from an ongoing comparison between available mass predictions and reports of newly measured masses of isotopes throughout the mass surface. These comparisons have highlighted a variety of features in current mass models which are responsible for predictions that diverge from masses determined experimentally. The need for a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions was therefore apparent and the project was organized and began at the last mass conferencemore » (AMCO-VII). Project participants included: Pape and Anthony; Dussel, Caurier and Zuker; Moeller and Nix; Moeller, Myers, Swiatecki and Treiner; Comay, Kelson, and Zidon; Satpathy and Nayak; Tachibana, Uno, Yamada and Yamada; Spanier and Johansson; Jaenecke and Masson; and Wapstra, Audi and Hoekstra. An overview of the new atomic mass predictions may be obtained by written request.« less

The 1986-87 atomic mass predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, P. E.

1987-12-01

A project to perform a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions has recently been concluded and will be published shortly in Atomic Data and Nuclear Data Tables. The project evolved from an ongoing comparison between available mass predictions and reports of newly measured masses of isotopes throughout the mass surface. These comparisons have highlighted a variety of features in current mass models which are responsible for predictions that diverge from masses determined experimentally. The need for a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions was therefore apparent and the project was organized and began at the last mass conference (AMCO-VII). Project participants included: Pape and Anthony; Dussel, Caurier and Zuker; Möller and Nix; Möller, Myers, Swiatecki and Treiner; Comay, Kelson, and Zidon; Satpathy and Nayak; Tachibana, Uno, Yamada and Yamada; Spanier and Johansson; Jänecke and Masson; and Wapstra, Audi and Hoekstra. An overview of the new atomic mass predictions may be obtained by written request.

Sequential accelerated tests: Improving the correlation of accelerated tests to module performance in the field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Thomas; Gambogi, William; Stika, Katherine; Yu, Bao-Ling; Bradley, Alex; Hu, Hongjie; Garreau-Iles, Lucie; Trout, T. John

2016-09-01

DuPont has been working steadily to develop accelerated backsheet tests that correlate with solar panels observations in the field. This report updates efforts in sequential testing. Single exposure tests are more commonly used and can be completed more quickly, and certain tests provide helpful predictions of certain backsheet failure modes. DuPont recommendations for single exposure tests are based on 25-year exposure levels for UV and humidity/temperature, and form a good basis for sequential test development. We recommend a sequential exposure of damp heat followed by UV then repetitions of thermal cycling and UVA. This sequence preserves 25-year exposure levels for humidity/temperature and UV, and correlates well with a large body of field observations. Measurements can be taken at intervals in the test, although the full test runs 10 months. A second, shorter sequential test based on damp heat and thermal cycling tests mechanical durability and correlates with loss of mechanical properties seen in the field. Ongoing work is directed toward shorter sequential tests that preserve good correlation to field data.

Foraminiferal calcification and CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nooijer, L. D.; Toyofuku, T.; Reichart, G. J.

2017-12-01

Ongoing burning of fossil fuels increases atmospheric CO2, elevates marine dissolved CO2 and decreases pH and the saturation state with respect to calcium carbonate. Intuitively this should decrease the ability of CaCO3-producing organisms to build their skeletons and shells. Whereas on geological time scales weathering and carbonate deposition removes carbon from the geo-biosphere, on time scales up to thousands of years, carbonate precipitation increases pCO2 because of the associated shift in seawater carbon speciation. Hence reduced calcification provides a potentially important negative feedback on increased pCO2 levels. Here we show that foraminifera form their calcium carbonate by active proton pumping. This elevates the internal pH and acidifies the direct foraminiferal surrounding. This also creates a strong pCO2 gradient and facilitates the uptake of DIC in the form of carbon dioxide. This finding uncouples saturation state from calcification and predicts that the added carbon due to ocean acidification will promote calcification by these organisms. This unknown effect could add substantially to atmospheric pCO2 levels, and might need to be accounted for in future mitigation strategies.

Scientific Message Translation and the Heuristic Systematic Model: Insights for Designing Educational Messages About Progesterone and Breast Cancer Risks

PubMed Central

Perrault, Evan; Smith, Sandi; Keating, David M.; Nazione, Samantha; Silk, Kami; Russell, Jessica

2017-01-01

Results of ongoing scientific research on environmental determinants of breast cancer are not typically presented to the public in ways they can easily understand and use to take preventive actions. In this study, results of scientific studies on progesterone exposure as a risk factor for breast cancer were translated into high and low literacy level messages. Using the heuristic systematic model, this study examined how ability, motivation, and message processing (heuristic and systematic) influenced perceptions of risk beliefs and negative attitudes about progesterone exposure among women who read the translated scientific messages. Among the 1254 participants, those given the higher literacy level message had greater perceptions of risk about progesterone. Heuristic message cues of source credibility and perceived message quality, as well as motivation, also predicted risk beliefs. Finally, risk beliefs were a strong predictor of negative attitudes about exposure to progesterone. The results can help improve health education message design in terms of practitioners having better knowledge of message features that are the most persuasive to the target audiences on this topic. PMID:25903053

Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) and Regional Integrated Science Assessments (RISA) Programs at NOAA Office of Global Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bamzai, A.

2003-04-01

This talk will highlight science and application activities of the CDEP and RISA programs at NOAA OGP. CDEP, through a set of Applied Research Centers (ARCs), supports NOAA's program of quantitative assessments and predictions of global climate variability and its regional implications on time scales of seasons to centuries. The RISA program consolidates results from ongoing disciplinary process research under an integrative framework. Examples of joint CDEP-RISA activities will be presented. Future directions and programmatic challenges will also be discussed.

Interplay between Antibiotic Efficacy and Drug-Induced Lysis Underlies Enhanced Biofilm Formation at Subinhibitory Drug Concentrations

PubMed Central

Yu, Wen; Hallinen, Kelsey M.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Subinhibitory concentrations of antibiotics have been shown to enhance biofilm formation in multiple bacterial species. While antibiotic exposure has been associated with modulated expression of many biofilm-related genes, the mechanisms of drug-induced biofilm formation remain a focus of ongoing research efforts and may vary significantly across species. In this work, we investigate antibiotic-induced biofilm formation in Enterococcus faecalis, a leading cause of nosocomial infections. We show that biofilm formation is enhanced by subinhibitory concentrations of cell wall synthesis inhibitors but not by inhibitors of protein, DNA, folic acid, or RNA synthesis. Furthermore, enhanced biofilm is associated with increased cell lysis, increases in extracellular DNA (eDNA) levels, and increases in the density of living cells in the biofilm. In addition, we observe similar enhancement of biofilm formation when cells are treated with nonantibiotic surfactants that induce cell lysis. These findings suggest that antibiotic-induced biofilm formation is governed by a trade-off between drug toxicity and the beneficial effects of cell lysis. To understand this trade-off, we developed a simple mathematical model that predicts changes in antibiotic-induced biofilm formation due to external perturbations, and we verified these predictions experimentally. Specifically, we demonstrate that perturbations that reduce eDNA (DNase treatment) or decrease the number of living cells in the planktonic phase (a second antibiotic) decrease biofilm induction, while chemical inhibitors of cell lysis increase relative biofilm induction and shift the peak to higher antibiotic concentrations. Overall, our results offer experimental evidence linking cell wall synthesis inhibitors, cell lysis, increased eDNA levels, and biofilm formation in E. faecalis while also providing a predictive quantitative model that sheds light on the interplay between cell lysis and antibiotic efficacy in developing biofilms. PMID:29061740

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prosser, Diann J.; Wu, Junxi; Ellis, Erie C.; Gale, Fred; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Wint, William; Robinson, Tim; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2011-01-01

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China's chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for 1/4 of the sample data which were not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China's first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives.

The long-term effects of maternal depression: early childhood physical health as a pathway to offspring depression.

PubMed

Raposa, Elizabeth; Hammen, Constance; Brennan, Patricia; Najman, Jake

2014-01-01

Cross-sectional and retrospective studies have highlighted the long-term negative effects of maternal depression on offspring physical, social, and emotional development, but longitudinal research is needed to clarify the pathways by which maternal depression during pregnancy and early childhood affects offspring outcomes. The current study tested one developmental pathway by which maternal depression during pregnancy might negatively impact offspring mental health in young adulthood, via poor physical health in early childhood. The sample consisted of 815 Australian youth and their mothers who were followed for 20 years. Mothers reported on their own depressive symptoms during pregnancy and offspring early childhood. Youth completed interviews about health-related stress and social functioning at age 20 years, and completed a questionnaire about their own depressive symptoms 2 to 5 years later. Path analysis indicated that prenatal maternal depressive symptoms predicted worse physical health during early childhood for offspring, and this effect was partially explained by ongoing maternal depression in early childhood. Offspring poor physical health during childhood predicted increased health-related stress and poor social functioning at age 20. Finally, increased health-related stress and poor social functioning predicted increased levels of depressive symptoms later in young adulthood. Maternal depression had a significant total indirect effect on youth depression via early childhood health and its psychosocial consequences. Poor physical health in early childhood and its effects on young adults' social functioning and levels of health related stress is one important pathway by which maternal depression has long-term consequences for offspring mental health. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling the distribution of chickens, ducks, and geese in China

PubMed Central

Prosser, Diann J.; Wu, Junxi; Ellis, Erle C.; Gale, Fred; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Wint, William; Robinson, Tim; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

2011-01-01

Global concerns over the emergence of zoonotic pandemics emphasize the need for high-resolution population distribution mapping and spatial modelling. Ongoing efforts to model disease risk in China have been hindered by a lack of available species level distribution maps for poultry. The goal of this study was to develop 1 km resolution population density models for China’s chickens, ducks, and geese. We used an information theoretic approach to predict poultry densities based on statistical relationships between poultry census data and high-resolution agro-ecological predictor variables. Model predictions were validated by comparing goodness of fit measures (root mean square error and correlation coefficient) for observed and predicted values for ¼ of the sample data which was not used for model training. Final output included mean and coefficient of variation maps for each species. We tested the quality of models produced using three predictor datasets and 4 regional stratification methods. For predictor variables, a combination of traditional predictors for livestock mapping and land use predictors produced the best goodness of fit scores. Comparison of regional stratifications indicated that for chickens and ducks, a stratification based on livestock production systems produced the best results; for geese, an agro-ecological stratification produced best results. However, for all species, each method of regional stratification produced significantly better goodness of fit scores than the global model. Here we provide descriptive methods, analytical comparisons, and model output for China’s first high resolution, species level poultry distribution maps. Output will be made available to the scientific and public community for use in a wide range of applications from epidemiological studies to livestock policy and management initiatives. PMID:21765567

Relationships between structural complexity, coral traits, and reef fish assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darling, Emily S.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Wilson, Shaun K.

2017-06-01

With the ongoing loss of coral cover and the associated flattening of reef architecture, understanding the links between coral habitat and reef fishes is of critical importance. Here, we investigate whether considering coral traits and functional diversity provides new insights into the relationship between structural complexity and reef fish communities, and whether coral traits and community composition can predict structural complexity. Across 157 sites in Seychelles, Maldives, the Chagos Archipelago, and Australia's Great Barrier Reef, we find that structural complexity and reef zone are the strongest and most consistent predictors of reef fish abundance, biomass, species richness, and trophic structure. However, coral traits, diversity, and life histories provided additional predictive power for models of reef fish assemblages, and were key drivers of structural complexity. Our findings highlight that reef complexity relies on living corals—with different traits and life histories—continuing to build carbonate skeletons, and that these nuanced relationships between coral assemblages and habitat complexity can affect the structure of reef fish assemblages. Seascape-level estimates of structural complexity are rapid and cost effective with important implications for the structure and function of fish assemblages, and should be incorporated into monitoring programs.

Self-reported Posttraumatic Growth Predicts Greater Subsequent Posttraumatic Stress Amidst War and Terrorism

PubMed Central

Gerhart, James; Hall, Brian; Rajan, Kumar B.; Vechiu, Catalina; Canetti, Daphna; Hobfoll, Stevan E.

2017-01-01

Background and Objective This study tested three alternative explanations for research indicating a positive, but heterogeneous relationship between self-reported posttraumatic growth (PTG) and posttraumatic stress symptoms (PSS):a) the third-variable hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is a spurious one driven by positive relationships with resource loss, b) the growth over time hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is initially a positive one, but becomes negative over time, and c) the moderator hypothesis that resource loss moderates the relationship between PTG and PSS such that PTG is associated with lower levels of PSS as loss increases. Design and Method A nationally representative sample (N = 1622) of Israelis was assessed at 3 time points during a period of ongoing violence. PTG, resource loss, and the interaction between PTG and loss were examined as lagged predictors of PSS to test the proposed hypotheses. Results Results were inconsistent with all 3 hypotheses, showing that PTG positively predicted subsequent PSS when accounting for main and interactive effects of loss. Conclusions Our results suggest that self-reported PTG is a meaningful but counterintuitive predictor of poorer mental health following trauma. PMID:27575750

Factors that predict financial sustainability of community coalitions: five years of findings from the PROSPER partnership project.

PubMed

Greenberg, Mark T; Feinberg, Mark E; Johnson, Lesley E; Perkins, Daniel F; Welsh, Janet A; Spoth, Richard L

2015-01-01

This study is a longitudinal investigation of the Promoting School-community-university Partnerships to Enhance Resilience (PROSPER) partnership model designed to evaluate the level of sustainability funding by community prevention teams, including which factors impact teams' generation of sustainable funding. Community teams were responsible for choosing, implementing with quality, and sustaining evidence-based programs (EBPs) intended to reduce substance misuse and promote positive youth and family development. Fourteen US rural communities and small towns were studied. Data were collected from PROSPER community team members (N = 164) and prevention coordinators (N = 10) over a 5-year period. Global and specific aspects of team functioning were assessed over six waves. Outcome measures were the total funds (cash and in-kind) raised to implement prevention programs. All 14 community teams were sustained for the first 5 years. However, there was substantial variability in the amount of funds raised, and these differences were predicted by earlier and concurrent team functioning and by team sustainability planning. Given the sufficient infrastructure and ongoing technical assistance provided by the PROSPER partnership model, local sustainability of EBPs is achievable.

Agentic women and communal leadership: how role prescriptions confer advantage to top women leaders.

PubMed

Rosette, Ashleigh Shelby; Tost, Leigh Plunkett

2010-03-01

The authors contribute to the ongoing debate about the existence of a female leadership advantage by specifying contextual factors that moderate the likelihood of the emergence of such an advantage. The investigation considered whether the perceived role incongruence between the female gender role and the leader role led to a female leader disadvantage (as predicted by role congruity theory) or whether instead a female leader advantage would emerge (as predicted by double standards and stereotype content research). In Study 1, it was only when success was internally attributed that women top leaders were evaluated as more agentic and more communal than men top leaders. Study 2 showed that the favorable ratings were unique to top-level positions and further showed that the effect on agentic traits was mediated by perceptions of double standards, while the effect on communal traits was mediated by expectations of feminized management skills. Finally, Study 2 showed that top women leaders were evaluated most favorably on overall leader effectiveness, and this effect was mediated by both mediators. Our results support the existence of a qualified female leadership advantage. 2010 APA, all rights reserved

The role of social context in shaping student-athlete opinions.

PubMed

Druckman, James N; Gilli, Mauro; Klar, Samara; Robison, Joshua

2014-01-01

How do student-athletes form opinions? This is a particularly important question given ongoing debates about whether student-athletes should be paid and/or allowed to unionize. These debates concern the rights and benefits accrued directly to student-athletes, and thus, understanding their attitudes is of obvious import. Yet, virtually no recent work has delved into how student-athletes form opinions on these issues. We fill this gap with a theoretical framework that predicts changes in social context alter opinions. This leads to the hypothesis that opinions will change once a student-athlete completes his/her career and finds him/herself in a distinct social network. We test the prediction with a survey, implemented in 2012, of one of the most notable athletic conferences in the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA): the Big Ten. We find that post-career student-athletes demonstrate higher levels of support for pay for play and unionization. Our results suggest that student-athletes' opinions seem to depend on their extant social contexts. While our data, from 2012, neither speak to current opinions - given the quickly evolving landscape of college athletics - nor demonstrate what reforms may be "best," they do accentuate the power of social context in shaping student-athletes' attitudes.

Efficacy, safety and tolerability of ongoing statin plus ezetimibe versus doubling the ongoing statin dose in hypercholesterolemic Taiwanese patients: an open-label, randomized clinical trial

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is associated with reduced risk for major coronary events. Despite statin efficacy, a considerable proportion of statin-treated hypercholesterolemic patients fail to reach therapeutic LDL-C targets as defined by guidelines. This study compared the efficacy of ezetimibe added to ongoing statins with doubling the dose of ongoing statin in a population of Taiwanese patients with hypercholesterolemia. Methods This was a randomized, open-label, parallel-group comparison study of ezetimibe 10 mg added to ongoing statin compared with doubling the dose of ongoing statin. Adult Taiwanese hypercholesterolemic patients not at optimal LDL-C levels with previous statin treatment were randomized (N = 83) to ongoing statin + ezetimibe (simvastatin, atorvastatin or pravastatin + ezetimibe at doses of 20/10, 10/10 or 20/10 mg) or doubling the dose of ongoing statin (simvastatin 40 mg, atorvastatin 20 mg or pravastatin 40 mg) for 8 weeks. Percent change in total cholesterol, LDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides, and specified safety parameters were assessed at 4 and 8 weeks. Results At 8 weeks, patients treated with statin + ezetimibe experienced significantly greater reductions compared with doubling the statin dose in LDL-C (26.2% vs 17.9%, p = 0.0026) and total cholesterol (20.8% vs 12.2%, p = 0.0003). Percentage of patients achieving treatment goal was greater for statin + ezetimibe (58.6%) vs doubling statin (41.2%), but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.1675). The safety and tolerability profiles were similar between treatments. Conclusion Ezetimibe added to ongoing statin therapy resulted in significantly greater lipid-lowering compared with doubling the dose of statin in Taiwanese patients with hypercholesterolemia. Studies to assess clinical outcome benefit are ongoing. Trial registration Registered at ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00652327 PMID:22621316

HESI admission assessment (A(2)) examination scores, program progression, and NCLEX-RN success in baccalaureate nursing: an exploratory study of dependable academic indicators of success.

PubMed

Hinderer, Katherine A; DiBartolo, Mary C; Walsh, Catherine M

2014-01-01

In an effort to meet the demand for well-educated, high-quality nurses, schools of nursing seek to admit those candidates most likely to have both timely progression and first-time success on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN). Finding the right combination of academic indicators, which are most predictive of success, continues to be an ongoing challenge for entry-level baccalaureate nursing programs across the United States. This pilot study explored the relationship of a standardized admission examination, the Health Education Systems, Inc. (HESI) Admission Assessment (A(2)) Examination to preadmission grade point average (GPA), science GPA, and nursing GPA using a retrospective descriptive design. In addition, the predictive ability of the A(2) Examination, preadmission GPA, and science GPA related to timely progression and NCLEX-RN success were explored. In a sample of 89 students, no relationship was found between the A(2) Examination and preadmission GPA or science GPA. The A(2) Examination was correlated with nursing GPA and NCLEX-RN success but not with timely progression. Further studies are needed to explore the utility and predictive ability of standardized examinations such as the A(2) Examination and the contribution of such examinations to evidence-based admission decision making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the shallow aquifer system of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Gesch, Dean B.; Carlson, Carl S.

2013-01-01

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to simulate both groundwater flow and solute (salt) transport to evaluate the groundwater system response to sea-level rise. The model was constructed using geologic and spatial information to represent the island geometry, boundaries, and physical properties and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation technique. An initial transient solute-transport simulation was used to establish the freshwater-saltwater boundary for a final calibrated steady-state model of groundwater flow. This model was developed as part of an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program to improve capabilities for predicting potential climate-change effects and provide the necessary tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse impacts.

Exposure to Acute Stress is Associated with Attenuated Sweet Taste

PubMed Central

al’Absi, Mustafa; Nakajima, Motohiro; Hooker, Stephanie; Wittmers, Larry; Cragin, Tiffany

2011-01-01

This study examined the effects of stress on taste perception. Participants (N = 38; 21 women) completed two laboratory sessions: one stress (public speaking, math, and cold pressor) and one control rest session. The taste perception test was conducted at the end of each session and included rating the intensity and pleasantness of sweet, salty, sour, and savory solutions at suprathreshold concentrations. Cardiovascular, hormonal, and mood measures were collected throughout the sessions. Participants showed the expected changes in cardiovascular, hormonal, and mood measures in response to stress. Reported intensity of the sweet solution was significantly lower on the stress day than on the rest day. Cortisol level post stress predicted reduced intensity of salt and sour, suggesting that stress-related changes in adrenocortical activity were related to reduced taste intensity. Results indicate that acute stress may alter taste perception, and ongoing research investigates the extent to which these changes mediate effects of stress on appetite. PMID:22091733

Geostatistics and GIS: tools for characterizing environmental contamination.

PubMed

Henshaw, Shannon L; Curriero, Frank C; Shields, Timothy M; Glass, Gregory E; Strickland, Paul T; Breysse, Patrick N

2004-08-01

Geostatistics is a set of statistical techniques used in the analysis of georeferenced data that can be applied to environmental contamination and remediation studies. In this study, the 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene (DDE) contamination at a Superfund site in western Maryland is evaluated. Concern about the site and its future clean up has triggered interest within the community because residential development surrounds the area. Spatial statistical methods, of which geostatistics is a subset, are becoming increasingly popular, in part due to the availability of geographic information system (GIS) software in a variety of application packages. In this article, the joint use of ArcGIS software and the R statistical computing environment are demonstrated as an approach for comprehensive geostatistical analyses. The spatial regression method, kriging, is used to provide predictions of DDE levels at unsampled locations both within the site and the surrounding areas where residential development is ongoing.

Circulating tumor cells: clinical validity and utility.

PubMed

Cabel, Luc; Proudhon, Charlotte; Gortais, Hugo; Loirat, Delphine; Coussy, Florence; Pierga, Jean-Yves; Bidard, François-Clément

2017-06-01

Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) are rare tumor cells and have been investigated as diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers in many types of cancer. Although CTCs are not currently used in clinical practice, CTC studies have accumulated a high level of clinical validity, especially in breast, lung, prostate and colorectal cancers. In this review, we present an overview of the current clinical validity of CTCs in metastatic and non-metastatic disease, and the main concepts and studies investigating the clinical utility of CTCs. In particular, this review will focus on breast, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer. Three major topics concerning the clinical utility of CTC are discussed-(1) treatment based on CTCs used as liquid biopsy, (2) treatment based on CTC count or CTC variations, and (3) treatment based on CTC biomarker expression. A summary of published or ongoing phase II and III trials is also presented.

A Dynamic Network Model to Explain the Development of Excellent Human Performance

PubMed Central

Den Hartigh, Ruud J. R.; Van Dijk, Marijn W. G.; Steenbeek, Henderien W.; Van Geert, Paul L. C.

2016-01-01

Across different domains, from sports to science, some individuals accomplish excellent levels of performance. For over 150 years, researchers have debated the roles of specific nature and nurture components to develop excellence. In this article, we argue that the key to excellence does not reside in specific underlying components, but rather in the ongoing interactions among the components. We propose that excellence emerges out of dynamic networks consisting of idiosyncratic mixtures of interacting components such as genetic endowment, motivation, practice, and coaching. Using computer simulations we demonstrate that the dynamic network model accurately predicts typical properties of excellence reported in the literature, such as the idiosyncratic developmental trajectories leading to excellence and the highly skewed distributions of productivity present in virtually any achievement domain. Based on this novel theoretical perspective on excellent human performance, this article concludes by suggesting policy implications and directions for future research. PMID:27148140

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites.

PubMed

Faleiro, Frederico Valtuille; Nemésio, André; Loyola, Rafael

2018-06-01

Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

LEVEL IV ECOREGION DELINEATION FOR THE STATE OF WYOMING

EPA Science Inventory

Level III ecoregions were refined and subdivided into level IV for the state of Wyoming in a manner consistent with ecoregion revision and subdivision that has been completed or is on-going in 37 of the conterminous United States. The project was collaborative, involving the scie...

Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities

PubMed Central

Johnson, Marc T.J.; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R.

2009-01-01

Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to examine the community-level effects of ongoing evolution. PMID:19414473

Channel Capture as a Response to Anthropogenic Modification of a Tidal Landscape: Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta, Southwest Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, C.; Bain, R. L.; Goodbred, S. L., Jr.; Hale, R. P.

2017-12-01

Studies of tidal channel dynamics frequently emphasize "morphologically short" spatial scales (i.e., settings in which the cross-system tidal propagation time is negligible) or idealized single-channel planforms. In contrast, tides in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (GBMD) propagate more than 100 kilometers inland from the coast through a network of interconnected tidal estuaries, producing complex hydrodynamic behavior that remains poorly understood. Intense anthropogenic modification of the GBMD landscape further complicates tidally-driven, natural delta surface maintenance. Analyzing this system is particularly urgent given the current trend of rising sea level and its associated impacts on coastal communities.We present results from an ongoing field investigation of tidal waveform interaction and mass exchange between the Pussur and Shibsa Rivers, two large macrotidal estuaries in the southwestern GBMD. In the 1960s, construction of earthen embankments ("polders") eliminated regular tidal inundation for a vast region of the tidal platform, shrinking the Shibsa and Pussur basins by an estimated 1000 km2 and 700 km2, respectively. Conservation of mass predicts that a reduction in tidal basin area will decrease peak flow velocities and induce channel siltation; indeed, 100 km2 of secondary channels at the distal end of the tidal range have partly or fully closed in recent decades. The Pussur is likewise rapidly shoaling, restricting navigational access along a major shipping route. However, discharge and bathymetric datasets indicate that the adjacent Shibsa conveys three to four times more water than the Pussur and is actively scouring its bed, contrary to its predicted response to polder construction. Our field measurements are consistent with an ongoing channel capture event in which the Shibsa floods and drains a progressively greater portion of the former Pussur basin, allowing the Shibsa to widen and deepen despite the regional trend of channel abandonment. These observations suggest that natural or anthropogenic changes to a tidal basin can drive rapid morphological adjustment of these typically-stable tidal channel systems.

Salivary immunoassays to investigate potential exposure to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation provides an update to an ongoing collaboration with Inter American University of Puerto Rico. The goal of this study is to investigate public health benefits that result from implementation of low cost, sustainable filtration technologies in remote, rural communities in Puerto Rico. To present an update to an ongoing collaborative project with Inter American University of Puerto Rico which investigates the health benefits that may result from installation of community level water filtration systems.

Long-term ongoing pregnancy rate and mode of conception after a positive and negative post-coital test.

PubMed

Hessel, Marloes; Brandes, Monique; de Bruin, Jan Peter; Bots, Rob S G M; Kremer, Jan A M; Nelen, Willianne L D M; Hamilton, Carl J C M

2014-09-01

Many fertility clinics have decided to abolish the post-coital test. Yet, it is a significant factor in prognostic models that predict the spontaneous pregnancy rate within one year. The aim of this study was to evaluate (1) the long-term outcome of infertile couples with a positive or a negative post-coital test during their fertility work-up and (2) the contribution of the different modes of conception. Retrospective cohort study. Three fertility clinics in the Netherlands, of which two are secondary care training hospitals and is a one tertiary care academic training hospital. 2476 newly referred infertile couples, where a post-coital test was performed in 1624 couples. After basic fertility work-up, couples were treated according to the national treatment protocols. Spontaneous and overall ongoing pregnancy rate. The spontaneous and overall ongoing pregnancy rates after three years were 37.7 and 77.5% after a positive post-coital test compared with 26.9 and 68.8% after a negative test (p < 0.001). Even in couples with severe male factor infertility (total motile sperm count <3) (p = 0.005) and mild male factor infertility (total motile sperm count 3-20) (p < 0.001), there was a significantly higher spontaneous ongoing pregnancy rate, justifying expectant management. After a follow-up of three years a positive post-coital test is still associated with a higher spontaneous and a higher overall ongoing pregnancy rate, even in couples with severe male factor infertility. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Mean Flow and Noise Prediction for a Separate Flow Jet With Chevron Mixers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, L. Danielle; Bridges, James; Khavaran, Abbas

2004-01-01

Experimental and numerical results are presented here for a separate flow nozzle employing chevrons arranged in an alternating pattern on the core nozzle. Comparisons of these results demonstrate that the combination of the WIND/MGBK suite of codes can predict the noise reduction trends measured between separate flow jets with and without chevrons on the core nozzle. Mean flow predictions were validated against Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), pressure, and temperature data, and noise predictions were validated against acoustic measurements recorded in the NASA Glenn Aeroacoustic Propulsion Lab. Comparisons are also made to results from the CRAFT code. The work presented here is part of an on-going assessment of the WIND/MGBK suite for use in designing the next generation of quiet nozzles for turbofan engines.

Aggregate-level lead exposure, gun violence, homicide, and rape

PubMed Central

Nelson, Erik J.; Qian, Zhengmin; Vaughn, Michael G.; Wright, John P.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Barnes, J. C.; Petkovsek, Melissa; Lewis, Roger; Schootman, Mario; Rosenfeld, Richard

2017-01-01

Context An increasing body of research has linked the geographic distribution of lead with various indicators of criminal and antisocial behavior. Objective The current study, using data from an ongoing project related to lead exposure in St. Louis City, MO, analyzed the association between aggregate blood lead levels and specific indicators violent crime within the city. Design Ecological study. Setting St. Louis, Missouri. Exposure measure Blood lead levels. Main outcome measure Official reports of violent crimes were categorized as 1) crimes involving a firearm (yes/no), 2) assault crimes (with or without a firearm), 3) robbery crimes (with or without a firearm), 4) homicides and 5) rape. Results With the exception of rape, aggregate blood-lead levels were statistically significant predictors of violent crime at the census tract level. The risk ratios for each of the outcome measures were as follows: firearm crimes 1.03 (1.03–1.04), assault crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.03), robbery crimes 1.03 (1.02–1.04), homicide 1.03 (1.01, 1.04), and rape 1.01 (0.99–1.03). Conclusions Extending prior research in St. Louis, results suggest that aggregated lead exposure at the census tract level predicted crime outcomes, even after accounting for important sociological variables. Moving forward, a more developed understanding of aggregate level crime may necessitate a shift toward studying the synergy between sociological and biological risk factors such as lead exposure. PMID:29176826

Integrating longitudinal serum IL-17 and IL-23 follow-up, along with autoantibodies variation, contributes to predict bullous pemphigoid outcome

PubMed Central

Plée, Julie; Le Jan, Sébastien; Giustiniani, Jérôme; Barbe, Coralie; Joly, Pascal; Bedane, Christophe; Vabres, Pierre; Truchetet, François; Aubin, François; Antonicelli, Frank; Bernard, Philippe

2015-01-01

Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is an inflammatory autoimmune bullous disease involving cytokines and proteases in the process of blister formation. Recently, IL-17 and IL-23 were evidenced in lesional skin and serum of BP patients at time of diagnosis, but their involvement in disease outcome has still not been investigated yet. We then analysed IL-17 and IL-23 serum levels during the first months of follow-up upon treatment. Compared with age- and sex- matched controls, high levels of IL-23 were observed at baseline in BP patients serum (P < 0.01), while IL-17 levels was not. However, some BP patients expressed high IL-17 serum level, independently of disease severity. In these patients, those with ongoing remission reduced IL-17 concentration upon treatment (P < 0.001), whereas IL-17 level remained elevated in patients who relapsed. Meanwhile, IL-23 serum levels increased during the first month of treatment in BP patients who later relapsed (P < 0.01) and MMP-9 serum level was not controlled. Accordingly, we found that both IL-17 and IL-23 increased MMP-9 secretion from leukocytes in-vitro. Then, we showed that elevated IL-17/IL-23 serum concentrations helped to discriminate BP patients who later relapsed. Such uncontrolled inflammatory response raises the question whether these molecules could become biological target for BP patients resistant to steroid treatment. PMID:26656739

Runoff delay exerts a strong control on the field-scale removal of manure-borne fecal bacteria with runoff

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The microbial safety of surface waters is an ongoing issue which is threatened by the transport of manure-borne bacteria to water sources used for irrigation or recreation. Predictive modeling has become an effective tool to forecast the microbial quality of water during precipitation events, howeve...

Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

Vibroacoustic Response of Pad Structures to Space Shuttle Launch Acoustic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margasahayam, R. N.; Caimi, Raoul E.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a deterministic theory for the random vibration problem for predicting the response of structures in the low-frequency range (0 to 20 hertz) of launch transients. Also presented are some innovative ways to characterize noise and highlights of ongoing test-analysis correlation efforts titled the Verification Test Article (VETA) project.

Predicting Family Poverty and Other Disadvantaged Conditions for Child Rearing from Childhood Aggression and Social Withdrawal: A 30-Year Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serbin, Lisa A.; Temcheff, Caroline E.; Cooperman, Jessica M.; Stack, Dale M.; Ledingham, Jane; Schwartzman, Alex E.

2011-01-01

This 30-year longitudinal study examined pathways from problematic childhood behavior patterns to future disadvantaged conditions for family environment and child rearing in adulthood. Participants were mothers (n = 328) and fathers (n = 222) with lower income backgrounds participating in the ongoing Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project. Structural…

Adolescent and Young Adult Male Sex Offenders: Understanding the Role of Recidivism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riser, Diana K.; Pegram, Sheri E.; Farley, Julee P.

2013-01-01

The current review explores the complex paths that can lead to adolescent and young adult males becoming sexually abusive. Because sexual abuse is an ongoing issue in our society that is often oversimplified, this article distinguishes between the various risk factors that predict sexually abusive behavior and types of sex offenders, particularly…

The Development and Field Test of Employment Interview Questions Designed to Predict Special Education Teachers' Retention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vossler, Victoria L.

2010-01-01

The attrition of special education teachers greatly affects the quality of special education services districts can provide for students with disabilities and creates an ongoing challenge for educational leaders. It is essential to understand the factors influencing special education teachers' decisions to leave or remain in the field. If…

Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across - GenRA: Evaluating local validity for read-across prediction using chemical and biological information (SOT/QSAR conference)

EPA Science Inventory

Read-across remains a popular data gap filling technique within category and analogue approaches for regulatory purposes. Acceptance of read-across is an ongoing challenge with several efforts underway for identifying and addressing uncertainties. Here we demonstrate an algorithm...

EVALUATION OF THE LEVELS OF DIOXIN-LIKE COMPOUNDS IN ANIMAL FEEDS

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of this study is to measure the levels of dioxin-like compounds in the feeds of terrestrial food animals - cattle, swine, and poultry - and to understand their contribution to the dioxin-like levels found in the animals. It is an ongoing effort involving several phase...

Level of Analysis in the Perception of Ongoing Instruction: An Exploratory Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koopman, Cheryl; Newtson, Darren

1981-01-01

Instructional variables were manipulated to determine whether they influence the level of perceptual analysis. The relationships of perceptual analysis to concept learning and evaluations of the instructors were also examined in the study. (Author/GK)

Pain-Related Suppression of Beta Oscillations Facilitates Voluntary Movement.

PubMed

Misra, Gaurav; Ofori, Edward; Chung, Jae Woo; Coombes, Stephen A

2017-04-01

Increased beta oscillations over sensorimotor cortex are antikinetic. Motor- and pain-related processes separately suppress beta oscillations over sensorimotor cortex leading to the prediction that ongoing pain should facilitate movement. In the current study, we used a paradigm in which voluntary movements were executed during an ongoing pain-eliciting stimulus to test the hypothesis that a pain-related suppression of beta oscillations would facilitate the initiation of a subsequent voluntary movement. Using kinematic measures, electromyography, and high-density electroencephalography, we demonstrate that ongoing pain leads to shorter reaction times without affecting the kinematics or accuracy of movement. Reaction time was positively correlated with beta power prior to movement in contralateral premotor areas. Our findings corroborate the view that beta-band oscillations are antikinetic and provide new evidence that pain primes the motor system for action. Our observations provide the first evidence that a pain-related suppression of beta oscillations over contralateral premotor areas leads to shorter reaction times for voluntary movement. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Behavior problems and placement change in a national child welfare sample: a prospective study.

PubMed

Aarons, Gregory A; James, Sigrid; Monn, Amy R; Raghavan, Ramesh; Wells, Rebecca S; Leslie, Laurel K

2010-01-01

There is ongoing debate regarding the impact of youth behavior problems on placement change in child welfare compared to the impact of placement change on behavior problems. Existing studies provide support for both perspectives. The purpose of this study was to prospectively examine the relations of behavior problems and placement change in a nationally representative sample of youths in the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being. The sample consisted of 500 youths in the child welfare system with out-of-home placements over the course of the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being study. We used a prospective cross-lag design and path analysis to examine reciprocal effects of behavior problems and placement change, testing an overall model and models examining effects of age and gender. In the overall model, out of a total of eight path coefficients, behavior problems significantly predicted placement changes for three paths and placement change predicted behavior problems for one path. Internalizing and externalizing behavior problems at baseline predicted placement change between baseline and 18 months. Behavior problems at an older age and externalizing behavior at 18 months appear to confer an increased risk of placement change. Of note, among female subjects, placement changes later in the study predicted subsequent internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. In keeping with recommendations from a number of professional bodies, we suggest that initial and ongoing screening for internalizing and externalizing behavior problems be instituted as part of standard practice for youths entering or transitioning in the child welfare system.

How do temperate bryophytes face the challenge of a changing environment? Lessons from the past and predictions for the future.

PubMed

Désamoré, Aurélie; Laenen, Benjamin; Stech, Michael; Papp, Beata; Hedenäs, Lars; Mateo, Ruben G; Vanderpoorten, Alain

2012-09-01

Bryophytes are a group of early land plants, whose specific ecophysiological and biological features, including poikilohydry, sensitivity to moderately high temperature and high dispersal ability, make them ideal candidates for investigating the impact of climate changes. Employing a combined approach of species distribution modelling (SDM) and molecular phylogeography in the temperate moss Homalothecium sericeum, we explore the significance of the Mediterranean refugia, contrasting the southern and northern refugia hypotheses, determine the extent to which recolonization of previously glaciated areas has been facilitated by the high dispersal ability of the species and make predictions on the extent to which it will be impacted by ongoing climate change. The Mediterranean areas exhibit the highest nucleotidic diversities and host a mixture of ancestral, endemic and more recently derived haplotypes. Extra-Mediterranean areas exhibit low genetic diversities and Euro-Siberian populations display a significant signal of expansion that is identified to be of Euro-Siberian origin, pointing to the northern refugia hypothesis. The SDMs predict a global net increase in range size owing to ongoing climate change, but substantial range reductions in southern areas. Presence of a significant phylogeographical signal at different spatial scales suggests, however, that dispersal limitations might constitute, as opposed to the traditional view of spore-producing plants as efficient dispersers, a constraint for migration. This casts doubts about the ability of the species to face the massive extinctions predicted in the southern areas, threatening their status of reservoir of genetic diversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance

PubMed Central

Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M.; Góngora-Costa, Begoña

2015-01-01

We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus’ onset times) modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI), causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected), which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad hoc concepts such as “executive control” is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty) and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching. PMID:26379568

Personality factors and posttraumatic stress: associations in civilians one year after air attacks.

PubMed

Lecic-Tosevski, Dusica; Gavrilovic, Jelena; Knezevic, Goran; Priebe, Stefan

2003-12-01

There is an ongoing debate on which risk factors for developing posttraumatic stress symptoms are more important--personality traits reflecting vulnerability, previous stressful experiences or characteristics of the traumatic event. In this study, posttraumatic stress symptoms and their relationship with personality traits, previous stressful experiences and exposure to stressful events during air attacks in Yugoslavia were investigated. The Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI; Millon, 1983), Impact of Events Scale (IES; Horowitz, Wilner, & Alvarez, 1979), Life Stressor Checklist Revised (LSCL-R; Wolfe & Kimerling, 1997), and List of Stressors were administered to a homogeneous group of medical students 1 year after the attacks. In multiple regression analyses, compulsive and passive-aggressive personality traits and a higher level of exposure to stressors during air attacks independently predicted the degree of intrusion symptoms. Avoidance symptoms were predicted by avoidant personality traits and a higher exposure to stressors both previously in life and during the attacks. In the next step, we tested in analyses of variance whether personality traits, previous stressful experiences, and stressful events during attacks as independent variables interact in predicting intrusion and avoidance symptoms. For this, students were clustered into three groups depending on their predominant personality traits. In addition to direct predictive effects, there were significant interaction effects in predicting both intrusion and avoidance. The findings suggest that each of the tested factors, i.e., personality traits, previous stressful experiences, and exposure to traumatic events may have an independent and direct influence on developing posttraumatic stress. However, the effect of these factors cannot just be added up. Rather, the factors interact in their impact on posttraumatic stress symptoms. Bigger samples and longitudinal designs will be required to understand precisely how different personality traits influence response to stressful events.

Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance.

PubMed

Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M; Góngora-Costa, Begoña

2015-01-01

We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus' onset times) modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI), causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected), which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad hoc concepts such as "executive control" is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty) and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching.

The Effect of Task Duration on Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hongxia; Tang, Weihai; Liu, Xiping

2017-01-01

Remembering to perform an action when a specific event occurs is referred to as Event-Based Prospective Memory (EBPM). This study investigated how EBPM performance is affected by task duration by having university students (n = 223) perform an EBPM task that was embedded within an ongoing computer-based color-matching task. For this experiment, we separated the overall task’s duration into the filler task duration and the ongoing task duration. The filler task duration is the length of time between the intention and the beginning of the ongoing task, and the ongoing task duration is the length of time between the beginning of the ongoing task and the appearance of the first Prospective Memory (PM) cue. The filler task duration and ongoing task duration were further divided into three levels: 3, 6, and 9 min. Two factors were then orthogonally manipulated between-subjects using a multinomial processing tree model to separate the effects of different task durations on the two EBPM components. A mediation model was then created to verify whether task duration influences EBPM via self-reminding or discrimination. The results reveal three points. (1) Lengthening the duration of ongoing tasks had a negative effect on EBPM performance while lengthening the duration of the filler task had no significant effect on it. (2) As the filler task was lengthened, both the prospective and retrospective components show a decreasing and then increasing trend. Also, when the ongoing task duration was lengthened, the prospective component decreased while the retrospective component significantly increased. (3) The mediating effect of discrimination between the task duration and EBPM performance was significant. We concluded that different task durations influence EBPM performance through different components with discrimination being the mediator between task duration and EBPM performance. PMID:29163277

Control your inventory in a world of lean retailing.

PubMed

Abernathy, F H; Dunlop, J T; Hammond, J H; Weil, D

2000-01-01

As retailers adopt lean retailing practices, manufacturers are feeling the pinch. Retailers no longer place large seasonal orders for goods in advance-instead, they require ongoing replenishment of stock, forcing manufacturers to predict demand and then hold substantial inventories indefinitely. Manufacturers now carry the cost of inventory risk--the possibility that demand will dry up and goods will have to be sold below cost. And as product proliferation increases, customer demand becomes harder to predict. Most manufacturers apply one inventory policy for all stock-keeping units in a product line. But the inventory demand for SKUs within the same product line can vary significantly. SKUs with high volume typically have little variation in weekly sales, while slow-selling SKUs can vary enormously in weekly sales. The greater the variation, the larger the inventory the manufacturer must hold relative to an SKU's expected weekly sales. By differentiating inventory policies at the SKU level, manufacturers can reduce inventories for the high-volume SKUs and increase them for the low-volume ones--and thereby improve the profit-ability of the entire line. SKU-level differentiation can also be applied to sourcing strategies. Instead of producing all the SKUs for a product line at a single location, either offshore at low cost or close to market at higher cost, manufacturers can typically do better by going for a mixed allocation. Low-variation goods should be produced mainly offshore, while high-variation goods are best made close to markets.

Subsecond dopamine fluctuations in human striatum encode superposed error signals about actual and counterfactual reward

PubMed Central

Kishida, Kenneth T.; Saez, Ignacio; Lohrenz, Terry; Witcher, Mark R.; Laxton, Adrian W.; Tatter, Stephen B.; White, Jason P.; Ellis, Thomas L.; Phillips, Paul E. M.; Montague, P. Read

2016-01-01

In the mammalian brain, dopamine is a critical neuromodulator whose actions underlie learning, decision-making, and behavioral control. Degeneration of dopamine neurons causes Parkinson’s disease, whereas dysregulation of dopamine signaling is believed to contribute to psychiatric conditions such as schizophrenia, addiction, and depression. Experiments in animal models suggest the hypothesis that dopamine release in human striatum encodes reward prediction errors (RPEs) (the difference between actual and expected outcomes) during ongoing decision-making. Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) imaging experiments in humans support the idea that RPEs are tracked in the striatum; however, BOLD measurements cannot be used to infer the action of any one specific neurotransmitter. We monitored dopamine levels with subsecond temporal resolution in humans (n = 17) with Parkinson’s disease while they executed a sequential decision-making task. Participants placed bets and experienced monetary gains or losses. Dopamine fluctuations in the striatum fail to encode RPEs, as anticipated by a large body of work in model organisms. Instead, subsecond dopamine fluctuations encode an integration of RPEs with counterfactual prediction errors, the latter defined by how much better or worse the experienced outcome could have been. How dopamine fluctuations combine the actual and counterfactual is unknown. One possibility is that this process is the normal behavior of reward processing dopamine neurons, which previously had not been tested by experiments in animal models. Alternatively, this superposition of error terms may result from an additional yet-to-be-identified subclass of dopamine neurons. PMID:26598677

Subsecond dopamine fluctuations in human striatum encode superposed error signals about actual and counterfactual reward.

PubMed

Kishida, Kenneth T; Saez, Ignacio; Lohrenz, Terry; Witcher, Mark R; Laxton, Adrian W; Tatter, Stephen B; White, Jason P; Ellis, Thomas L; Phillips, Paul E M; Montague, P Read

2016-01-05

In the mammalian brain, dopamine is a critical neuromodulator whose actions underlie learning, decision-making, and behavioral control. Degeneration of dopamine neurons causes Parkinson's disease, whereas dysregulation of dopamine signaling is believed to contribute to psychiatric conditions such as schizophrenia, addiction, and depression. Experiments in animal models suggest the hypothesis that dopamine release in human striatum encodes reward prediction errors (RPEs) (the difference between actual and expected outcomes) during ongoing decision-making. Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) imaging experiments in humans support the idea that RPEs are tracked in the striatum; however, BOLD measurements cannot be used to infer the action of any one specific neurotransmitter. We monitored dopamine levels with subsecond temporal resolution in humans (n = 17) with Parkinson's disease while they executed a sequential decision-making task. Participants placed bets and experienced monetary gains or losses. Dopamine fluctuations in the striatum fail to encode RPEs, as anticipated by a large body of work in model organisms. Instead, subsecond dopamine fluctuations encode an integration of RPEs with counterfactual prediction errors, the latter defined by how much better or worse the experienced outcome could have been. How dopamine fluctuations combine the actual and counterfactual is unknown. One possibility is that this process is the normal behavior of reward processing dopamine neurons, which previously had not been tested by experiments in animal models. Alternatively, this superposition of error terms may result from an additional yet-to-be-identified subclass of dopamine neurons.

Adolescent neural response to reward is related to participant sex and task motivation

PubMed Central

Alarcón, Gabriela; Cservenka, Anita; Nagel, Bonnie J.

2017-01-01

Risky decision making is prominent during adolescence, perhaps contributed to by heightened sensation seeking and ongoing maturation of reward and dopamine systems in the brain, which are, in part, modulated by sex hormones. In this study, we examined sex differences in the neural substrates of reward sensitivity during a risky decision-making task and hypothesized that compared with girls, boys would show heightened brain activation in reward-relevant regions, particularly the nucleus accumbens, during reward receipt. Further, we hypothesized that testosterone and estradiol levels would mediate this sex difference. Moreover, we predicted boys would make more risky choices on the task. While boys showed increased nucleus accumbens blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response relative to girls, sex hormones did not mediate this effect. As predicted, boys made a higher percentage of risky decisions during the task. Interestingly, boys also self-reported more motivation to perform well and earn money on the task, while girls self-reported higher state anxiety prior to the scan session. Motivation to earn money partially mediated the effect of sex on nucleus accumbens activity during reward. Previous research shows that increased motivation and salience of reinforcers is linked with more robust striatal BOLD response, therefore psychosocial factors, in addition to sex, may play an important role in reward sensitivity. Elucidating neurobiological mechanisms that support adolescent sex differences in risky decision making has important implications for understanding individual differences that lead to advantageous and adverse behaviors that affect health outcomes. PMID:27816780

Ongoing quality control in digital radiography: Report of AAPM Imaging Physics Committee Task Group 151.

PubMed

Jones, A Kyle; Heintz, Philip; Geiser, William; Goldman, Lee; Jerjian, Khachig; Martin, Melissa; Peck, Donald; Pfeiffer, Douglas; Ranger, Nicole; Yorkston, John

2015-11-01

Quality control (QC) in medical imaging is an ongoing process and not just a series of infrequent evaluations of medical imaging equipment. The QC process involves designing and implementing a QC program, collecting and analyzing data, investigating results that are outside the acceptance levels for the QC program, and taking corrective action to bring these results back to an acceptable level. The QC process involves key personnel in the imaging department, including the radiologist, radiologic technologist, and the qualified medical physicist (QMP). The QMP performs detailed equipment evaluations and helps with oversight of the QC program, the radiologic technologist is responsible for the day-to-day operation of the QC program. The continued need for ongoing QC in digital radiography has been highlighted in the scientific literature. The charge of this task group was to recommend consistency tests designed to be performed by a medical physicist or a radiologic technologist under the direction of a medical physicist to identify problems with an imaging system that need further evaluation by a medical physicist, including a fault tree to define actions that need to be taken when certain fault conditions are identified. The focus of this final report is the ongoing QC process, including rejected image analysis, exposure analysis, and artifact identification. These QC tasks are vital for the optimal operation of a department performing digital radiography.

Ongoing quality control in digital radiography: Report of AAPM Imaging Physics Committee Task Group 151

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, A. Kyle, E-mail: kyle.jones@mdanderson.org; Geiser, William; Heintz, Philip

Quality control (QC) in medical imaging is an ongoing process and not just a series of infrequent evaluations of medical imaging equipment. The QC process involves designing and implementing a QC program, collecting and analyzing data, investigating results that are outside the acceptance levels for the QC program, and taking corrective action to bring these results back to an acceptable level. The QC process involves key personnel in the imaging department, including the radiologist, radiologic technologist, and the qualified medical physicist (QMP). The QMP performs detailed equipment evaluations and helps with oversight of the QC program, the radiologic technologist ismore » responsible for the day-to-day operation of the QC program. The continued need for ongoing QC in digital radiography has been highlighted in the scientific literature. The charge of this task group was to recommend consistency tests designed to be performed by a medical physicist or a radiologic technologist under the direction of a medical physicist to identify problems with an imaging system that need further evaluation by a medical physicist, including a fault tree to define actions that need to be taken when certain fault conditions are identified. The focus of this final report is the ongoing QC process, including rejected image analysis, exposure analysis, and artifact identification. These QC tasks are vital for the optimal operation of a department performing digital radiography.« less

Predictions penetrate perception: Converging insights from brain, behaviour and disorder

PubMed Central

O’Callaghan, Claire; Kveraga, Kestutis; Shine, James M; Adams, Reginald B.; Bar, Moshe

2018-01-01

It is argued that during ongoing visual perception, the brain is generating top-down predictions to facilitate, guide and constrain the processing of incoming sensory input. Here we demonstrate that these predictions are drawn from a diverse range of cognitive processes, in order to generate the richest and most informative prediction signals. This is consistent with a central role for cognitive penetrability in visual perception. We review behavioural and mechanistic evidence that indicate a wide spectrum of domains—including object recognition, contextual associations, cognitive biases and affective state—that can directly influence visual perception. We combine these insights from the healthy brain with novel observations from neuropsychiatric disorders involving visual hallucinations, which highlight the consequences of imbalance between top-down signals and incoming sensory information. Together, these lines of evidence converge to indicate that predictive penetration, be it cognitive, social or emotional, should be considered a fundamental framework that supports visual perception. PMID:27222169

Appetitive Aggression and Adverse Childhood Experiences Shape Violent Behavior in Females Formerly Associated with Combat

PubMed Central

Augsburger, Mareike; Meyer-Parlapanis, Danie; Bambonye, Manassé; Elbert, Thomas; Crombach, Anselm

2015-01-01

This study investigated the impact of violent experiences during childhood, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and appetitive aggression on everyday violent behavior in Burundian females with varying participation in war. Moreover, group differences in trauma-related and aggression variables were expected. Appetitive aggression describes the perception of violence perpetration as fascinating and appealing and is a common phenomenon in former combatants. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 158 females, either former combatants, supporters of armed forces or civilians during the civil war in Burundi. The PTSD Symptom Scale Interview was used to assess PTSD symptom severity, the Appetitive Aggression Scale to measure appetitive aggression and the Domestic and Community Violence Checklist to assess both childhood maltreatment and recent aggressive behavior. Former combatants had experienced more traumatic events, perpetrated more violence and reported higher levels of appetitive aggression than supporters and civilians. They also suffered more severely from PTSD symptoms than civilians but not than supporters. The groups did not differ regarding childhood maltreatment. Both appetitive aggression and childhood violence predicted ongoing aggressive behavior, whereas the latter outperformed PTSD symptom severity. These findings support current research showing that adverse childhood experiences and a positive attitude toward aggression serve as the basis for aggressive behavior and promote an ongoing cycle of violence in post-conflict regions. Female members of armed groups are in need of demobilization procedures including trauma-related care and interventions addressing appetitive aggression. PMID:26635666

Coding a Weather Model: DOE-FIU Science & Technology Workforce Development Program.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradley, Jon David

DOE Fellow, Andres Cremisini, completed a 10-week internship with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Under the management of Kristopher Klingler and the mentorship of Jon Bradley, he was tasked with conceiving and coding a realistic weather model for use in physical security applications. The objective was to make a weather model that could use real data to accurately predict wind and precipitation conditions at any location of interest on the globe at any user-determined time. The intern received guidance on software design, the C++ programming language and clear communication of project goals and ongoing progress. In addition,more » Mr. Cremisini was given license to structure the program however he best saw fit, an experience that will benefit ongoing research endeavors.« less

75 FR 1803 - Lower Florida Keys Refuges, Monroe County, FL

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-13

... fully assessed and the effect of climate change (e.g., sea level rise) is not known. We would protect... (e.g., hurricanes, wildfire) and global climate change, particularly sea level rise. Current ongoing... evaluate the potential impacts of sea level rise on the ecology of wading birds. Since a primary purpose of...

Computer-Aided Design/Computer-Assisted Manufacture Monolithic Restorations for Severely Worn Dentition: A Case History Report.

PubMed

Abou-Ayash, Samir; Boldt, Johannes; Vuck, Alexander

Full-arch rehabilitation of patients with severe tooth wear due to parafunctional behavior is a challenge for dentists and dental technicians, especially when a highly esthetic outcome is desired. A variety of different treatment options and prosthetic materials are available for such a clinical undertaking. The ongoing progress of computer-aided design/computer-assisted manufacture technologies in combination with all-ceramic materials provides a predictable workflow for these complex cases. This case history report describes a comprehensive, step-by-step treatment protocol leading to an optimally predictable treatment outcome for an esthetically compromised patient.

Improving Photometric Redshifts for Hyper Suprime-Cam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speagle, Josh S.; Leauthaud, Alexie; Eisenstein, Daniel; Bundy, Kevin; Capak, Peter L.; Leistedt, Boris; Masters, Daniel C.; Mortlock, Daniel; Peiris, Hiranya; HSC Photo-z Team; HSC Weak Lensing Team

2017-01-01

Deriving accurate photometric redshift (photo-z) probability distribution functions (PDFs) are crucial science components for current and upcoming large-scale surveys. We outline how rigorous Bayesian inference and machine learning can be combined to quickly derive joint photo-z PDFs to individual galaxies and their parent populations. Using the first 170 deg^2 of data from the ongoing Hyper Suprime-Cam survey, we demonstrate our method is able to generate accurate predictions and reliable credible intervals over ~370k high-quality redshifts. We then use galaxy-galaxy lensing to empirically validate our predicted photo-z's over ~14M objects, finding a robust signal.

Commentary: Factors predicting family court decisions in high-conflict divorce.

PubMed

Stover, Carla Smith

2013-01-01

Factors that predict custody and visitation decisions are an important area of research, especially in the context of high-conflict divorce. In these cases, youths are at significantly higher risk for exposure to ongoing conflict, violence, and triangulation in their parents' disputes. What variables courts and evaluation clinics use to make custody decisions and whether they are the most salient requires further study. The work by Raub and colleagues in this issue extends our understanding of important factors considered by the courts and custody evaluators in high-conflict divorce and points to directions for future research in this area.

Transcutaneous monitoring of steroid-induced osteoporosis with Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Jason R.; Inzana, Jason; Takahata, Masahiko; Awad, Hani A.; Berger, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

Although glucocorticoids are among the most frequently prescribed anti-inflammatory agents used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, extended exposure to this steroid hormone is the leading cause of iatrogenic osteoporosis. Recently, Raman spectroscopy has been utilized to exploit biochemical differences between osteoporotic and normal bones in order to predict fracture risk. In this presentation, we report the results of ongoing research in our laboratory towards the clinical translation of this technique. We will discuss strategies for the transcutaneous acquisition of spectra from the tibiae of mice that are of sufficient quality to generate accurate predictions of fracture risk.

ECOREGION DELINEATION IN TEXAS

EPA Science Inventory

Level III ecoregions are being refined and subdivided into level IV for the state of Texas. This work is consistent with ecoregion revision and subdivision that has been completed or is on-going in 37 of the conterminous United States. The two-year project is collaborative, inv...

Vulnerability of riparian obligate species to the interactive effect of fire, climate and hydrological change

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Rachel Loehman; Lisa Holsinger; Deborah Finch

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have multiple direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems in the interior western U.S. (Christensen et al., 2007; IPCC 2013). Global climate predictions for the Southwest include higher temperatures, more variable rainfall, and more drought periods, which will likely exacerbate the ongoing issues relating to wildfire and water allocation in...

Russian in Latvia: An Outlook for Bilingualism in a Post-Soviet Transitional Society

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dilans, Gatis

2009-01-01

What makes people, in shifting power positions of a post-independence period, plan on disusing an already known L2 or learn a new L2? What are the reasons for such shifts and what outcomes can, therefore, be predicted for the future of societal bilingualism surviving alongside ongoing efforts at monolingual unification in a newly independent…

The Short- to Medium-Term Predictive Accuracy of Static and Dynamic Risk Assessment Measures in a Secure Forensic Hospital

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D. M.; Ogloff, James R. P.; Daffern, Michael

2013-01-01

Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study…

The Role of Mind-Wandering in Measurements of General Aptitude

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mrazek, Michael D.; Smallwood, Jonathan; Franklin, Michael S.; Chin, Jason M.; Baird, Benjamin; Schooler, Jonathan W.

2012-01-01

Tests of working memory capacity (WMC) and fluid intelligence (gF) are thought to capture variability in a crucial cognitive capacity that is broadly predictive of success, yet pinpointing the exact nature of this capacity is an area of ongoing controversy. We propose that mind-wandering is associated with performance on tests of WMC and gF,…

Peer Influence, Information Quality and Predictive Power of Stock Microblogs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oh, Chong Keat

2013-01-01

Due to the popularity of Web 2.0 and Social Media in the last decade, the percolation of user generated content (UGC) has rapidly increased. In the financial realm, this results in the emergence of virtual investing communities (VIC) to the investing public. There is an on-going debate among scholars and practitioners on whether such UGC contain…

A Goal Bias in Action: The Boundaries Adults Perceive in Events Align with Sites of Actor Intent

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Dani; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathy; Pace, Amy; Michnick Golinkoff, Roberta

2017-01-01

We live in a dynamic world comprised of continuous events. Remembering our past and predicting future events, however, requires that we segment these ongoing streams of information in a consistent manner. How is this segmentation achieved? This research examines whether the boundaries adults perceive in events, such as the Olympic figure skating…

Dietary Intakes of Urban, High Body Mass Index, African American Children: Family and Child Dietary Attributes Predict Child Intakes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ritchie, Lorrene D.; Raman, Aarthi; Sharma, Sushma; Fitch, Mark D.; Fleming, Sharon E.

2011-01-01

Objective: To identify family and child nutrition and dietary attributes related to children's dietary intakes. Design: African American children (ages 8-11 years, n = 156), body mass index greater than 85th percentile, from urban, low-income neighborhoods. Baseline, cross-sectional data collected as part of an ongoing diabetes prevention…

Predicting Students' Attitudes towards Advertising on a University Virtual Learning Environment (VLE)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogba, Ike-Elechi; Saul, Neil; Coates, Nigel F.

2012-01-01

Most if not all UK universities and many in other parts of the world support their student learning via a virtual learning environment (VLE). Online resources are going to be increasingly important to students as the internet is very much part of their lives. However, the VLE will require ongoing investment to keep pace with technological…

Reaction of formaldehyde at the ortho- and para-positions of phenol: exploration of mechanisms using computational chemistry.

Treesearch

Anthony H. Conner; Melissa S. Reeves

2001-01-01

Computational chemistry methods can be used to explore the theoretical chemistry behind reactive systems, to compare the relative chemical reactivity of different systems, and, by extension, to predict the reactivity of new systems. Ongoing research has focused on the reactivity of a wide variety of phenolic compounds with formaldehyde using semi-empirical and ab...

Dopaminergic tone does not influence pain levels during placebo interventions in patients with chronic neuropathic pain.

PubMed

Skyt, Ina; Moslemi, Kurosh; Baastrup, Cathrine; Grosen, Kasper; Benedetti, Fabrizio; Petersen, Gitte L; Price, Donald D; Hall, Kathryn T; Kaptchuk, Ted J; Svensson, Peter; Jensen, Troels S; Vase, Lene

2017-10-23

Placebo effects have been reported in patients with chronic neuropathic pain. Expected pain levels and positive emotions are involved in the observed pain relief, but the underlying neurobiology is largely unknown. Patients with neuropathic pain are highly motivated for pain relief, and as motivational factors such as expectations of reward, as well as pain processing in itself, are related to the dopaminergic system, it can be speculated that dopamine release contributes to placebo effects in neuropathic pain. Nineteen patients with neuropathic pain after thoracic surgery were tested during a placebo intervention consisting of open and hidden applications of the pain-relieving agent lidocaine (2 mL) and no treatment. The dopamine antagonist haloperidol (2 mg) and the agonist levodopa/carbidopa (100/25 mg) were administered to test the involvement of dopamine. Expected pain levels, desire for pain relief, and ongoing and evoked pain were assessed on mechanical visual analog scales (0-10). Significant placebo effects on ongoing (P ≤ 0.003) and evoked (P ≤ 0.002) pain were observed. Expectancy and desire accounted for up to 41.2% and 71.5% of the variance in ongoing and evoked pain, respectively, after the open application of lidocaine. We found no evidence for an effect of haloperidol and levodopa/carbidopa on neuropathic pain levels (P = 0.071-0.963). Dopamine seemed to influence the levels of expectancy and desire, yet there was no evidence for indirect or interaction effects on the placebo effect. This is the first study to suggest that dopamine does not contribute to placebo effects in chronic neuropathic pain.

No effect of mercury exposure on kidney function during ongoing artisanal gold mining activities in Colombia.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Luz Helena Sánchez; Rodríguez-Villamizar, Laura Andrea; Flórez-Vargas, Oscar; Fiallo, Yolanda Vargas; Ordoñez, Álvaro; Gutiérrez, Myriam Del Carmen

2017-01-01

This cross-sectional study examined whether people who are exposed to mercury (Hg) vapours in ongoing artisanal gold mining activities have alteration in kidney function monitoring parameters. The study enrolled 164 miners and 127 participant controls. The Hg concentrations for miners and control participants were measured in blood (B-Hg; median 7.0 vs. 2.5 µg/L), urine (U-Hg; median 3.9 vs. 1.5 µg/g creatinine) and hair (H-Hg; median 0.8 vs. 0.4 µg/g hair). The biomarkers of renal function were creatinine, albumin and excretion of β-2 microglobulin. Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration equation. Significant statistical differences were found in Hg concentrations and eGFR levels between the two study groups ( p < 0.01) but not with the other biomarkers of renal function. A multiple regression model was applied to explore the relationship of eGFR levels and Hg concentrations. However, no association was found between the prevalence of reduced eGFR (<71.96 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) and the B-Hg or U-Hg levels after adjustment for covariates. Nevertheless, it was observed that having B-Hg levels above 10 µg Hg/L decreased the eGFR by 1.7 mL/min/1.73 m 2 (confidence interval 95% -5.1 to 1.7) compared to having levels below 2.0 µg Hg/L. Our results found no support for kidney damage associated with Hg vapour exposure in ongoing artisanal gold mining, whose population has a level of Hg exposure from low to moderate (B-Hg from 3.4 to 11.0 µg/L and U-Hg from 1.3 to 9.6 µg/g creatinine).

Endocrinological correlates of male bimaturism in wild Bornean orangutans.

PubMed

Marty, Pascal R; van Noordwijk, Maria A; Heistermann, Michael; Willems, Erik P; Dunkel, Lynda P; Cadilek, Manuela; Agil, Muhammad; Weingrill, Tony

2015-11-01

Among primates, orangutans are unique in having pronounced male bimaturism leading to two fully adult morphs that differ in both physical appearance and behavior. While unflanged males have a female-like appearance, flanged males have the full suite of secondary sexual characteristics, including cheek flanges and a large throat sac. So far, hormonal correlates of arrested development in unflanged males and the expression of secondary sexual characteristics in flanged males have only been studied in zoo-housed individuals. In this study, we investigated fecal androgen and glucocorticoid metabolites as hormonal correlates of male bimaturism in 17 wild adult Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. We predicted and found higher androgen levels in flanged males compared to unflanged males, probably due to ongoing strong competition among flanged males who meet too infrequently to establish a clear linear dominance hierarchy. Furthermore, we found no difference in fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations between flanged and unflanged males, indicating that social stress is unlikely to explain arrested development in unflanged wild orangutans. The only actively developing male in our study showed significantly higher androgen levels during the period of development than later as a fully flanged male. This supports earlier findings from zoo studies that elevated androgen levels are associated with the development of secondary sexual characteristics. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

pCO2 effects on species composition and growth of an ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The effects of ongoing changes in ocean carbonate chemistry on plankton ecology have important implications for food webs and biogeochemical cycling. However, conflicting results have emerged regarding species-specific responses to pCO2 enrichment and thus community responses have been difficult to predict. To assess community level effects (e.g., production) of altered carbonate chemistry, studies are needed that capitalize on the benefits of controlled experiments but also retain features of intact ecosystems that may exacerbate or ameliorate the effects observed in single-species or single cohort experiments. We performed incubations of natural plankton communities from Narragansett Bay, RI, USA in winter at ambient bay temperatures (5–13 °C), light and nutrient concentrations under three levels of controlled and constant CO2 concentrations, simulating past, present and future conditions at mean pCO2 levels of 224, 361, and 724 μatm respectively. Samples for carbonate analysis, chlorophyll a, plankton size-abundance, and plankton species composition were collected daily and phytoplankton growth rates in three different size fractions (20 μm) were measured at the end of the 7-day incubation period. Community composition changed during the incubation period with major increases in relative diatom abundance, which were similar across pCO2 treatments. At the end of the experiment, 24-hr growth responses to pCO2 levels varied as a function of cell size. The s

Affective behavior and temperament predict the onset of smoking in adolescence.

PubMed

Cheetham, Ali; Allen, Nicholas B; Schwartz, Orli; Simmons, Julian G; Whittle, Sarah; Byrne, Michelle L; Sheeber, Lisa; Lubman, Dan I

2015-06-01

Earlier use of tobacco in adolescence is associated with numerous adverse outcomes later in life. Although a number of studies have linked individual differences in affective functioning to adolescent smoking, these have relied primarily on self-report measures, and the contribution of different dimensions of affect to the onset of tobacco use during this period remains unclear. The current study examined these issues in a sample of 180 adolescents recruited from an ongoing prospective, longitudinal study examining emotional development. At approximately age 12, participants completed a questionnaire measure of affective temperament and took part in a family interaction task that was coded observationally to provide measures of dysphoric, aggressive, and positive behaviors. At 2 subsequent assessments, which took place approximately 2.5 years and 4 years after the initial assessment, participants completed a questionnaire measure of substance use. In total, 70 participants initiated smoking between the ages of 12 and 17. An earlier onset of smoking was predicted by more aggressive and less positive observed behavior during the interaction task, as well as lower levels of self-reported temperamental Effortful Control. There were no associations between dysphoric behaviors, or temperamental measures of negative affectivity or surgency and the onset of smoking. The findings add to a small body of literature demonstrating that behavioral components of affect can prospectively predict substance use in adolescence and suggest that different dimensions of affect show unique relationships with early substance use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting Liver Transplant Capacity Using Discrete Event Simulation.

PubMed

Toro-Díaz, Hector; Mayorga, Maria E; Barritt, A Sidney; Orman, Eric S; Wheeler, Stephanie B

2015-08-01

The number of liver transplants (LTs) performed in the US increased until 2006 but has since declined despite an ongoing increase in demand. This decline may be due in part to decreased donor liver quality and increasing discard of poor-quality livers. We constructed a discrete event simulation (DES) model informed by current donor characteristics to predict future LT trends through the year 2030. The data source for our model is the United Network for Organ Sharing database, which contains patient-level information on all organ transplants performed in the US. Previous analysis showed that liver discard is increasing and that discarded organs are more often from donors who are older, are obese, have diabetes, and donated after cardiac death. Given that the prevalence of these factors is increasing, the DES model quantifies the reduction in the number of LTs performed through 2030. In addition, the model estimatesthe total number of future donors needed to maintain the current volume of LTs and the effect of a hypothetical scenario of improved reperfusion technology.We also forecast the number of patients on the waiting list and compare this with the estimated number of LTs to illustrate the impact that decreased LTs will have on patients needing transplants. By altering assumptions about the future donor pool, this model can be used to develop policy interventions to prevent a further decline in this lifesaving therapy. To our knowledge, there are no similar predictive models of future LT use based on epidemiological trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

Predicting Liver Transplant Capacity Using Discrete Event Simulation

PubMed Central

Diaz, Hector Toro; Mayorga, Maria; Barritt, A. Sidney; Orman, Eric S.; Wheeler, Stephanie B.

2014-01-01

The number of liver transplants (LTs) performed in the US increased until 2006, but has since declined despite an ongoing increase in demand. This decline may be due in part to decreased donor liver quality and increasing discard of poor quality livers. We constructed a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model informed by current donor characteristics to predict future LT trends through the year 2030. The data source for our model is the United Network for Organ Sharing database, which contains patient level information on all organ transplants performed in the US. Previous analysis showed that liver discard is increasing and that discarded organs are more often from donors who are older, obese, have diabetes, and donated after cardiac death. Given that the prevalence of these factors is increasing, the DES model quantifies the reduction in the number of LTs performed through 2030. In addition, the model estimates the total number of future donors needed to maintain the current volume of LTs, and the effect of a hypothetical scenario of improved reperfusion technology. We also forecast the number of patients on the waiting list and compare this to the estimated number of LTs to illustrate the impact that decreased LTs will have on patients needing transplants. By altering assumptions about the future donor pool, this model can be used to develop policy interventions to prevent a further decline in this life saving therapy. To our knowledge, there are no similar predictive models of future LT use based on epidemiologic trends. PMID:25391681

Factors Predictive of Sentinel Lymph Node Involvement in Primary Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Malter, Wolfram; Hellmich, Martin; Badian, Mayhar; Kirn, Verena; Mallmann, Peter; Krämer, Stefan

2018-06-01

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) has replaced axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for axillary staging in patients with early-stage breast cancer. The need for therapeutic ALND is the subject of ongoing debate especially after the publication of the ACOSOG Z0011 trial. In a retrospective trial with univariate and multivariate analyses, factors predictive of sentinel lymph node involvement should be analyzed in order to define tumor characteristics of breast cancer patients, where SLNB should not be spared to receive important indicators for adjuvant treatment decisions (e.g. thoracic wall irradiation after mastectomy with or without reconstruction). Between 2006 and 2010, 1,360 patients with primary breast cancer underwent SLNB with/without ALND with evaluation of tumor localization, multicentricity and multifocality, histological subtype, tumor size, grading, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status. These characteristics were retrospectively analyzed in univariate and multivariate logistic regression models to define significant predictive factors for sentinel lymph node involvement. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that tumor size and LVI (p<0.001) were independent predictive factors for metastatic sentinel lymph node involvement in patients with early-stage breast cancer. Because of the increased risk for metastatic involvement of axillary sentinel nodes in cases with larger breast cancer or diagnosis of LVI, patients with these breast cancer characteristics should not be spared from SLNB in a clinically node-negative situation in order to avoid false-negative results with a high potential for wrong indication of primary breast reconstruction or wrong non-indication of necessary post-mastectomy radiation therapy. The prognostic impact of avoidance of axillary staging with SLNB is analyzed in the ongoing prospective INSEMA trial. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Experiences of Women Who Underwent Predictive BRCA 1/2 Mutation Testing Before the Age of 30.

PubMed

Brunstrom, Kate; Murray, Alexandra; McAllister, Marion

2016-02-01

This qualitative interview study focuses on the experiences of a sample of British female BRCA 1/2 carriers who had predictive testing before the age of 30, which is the minimum age for breast screening in the UK. Following appropriate informed consent procedures participants were recruited through the Cancer Genetics Service for Wales. Semi-structured interviews were conducted face-to-face with seven participants, transcribed in full and analyzed using thematic analysis. The motives for testing and perceived advantages described by participants were similar to those identified in previous studies with older participants, such as increased awareness and knowledge and feeling more in control. However some of the perceived disadvantages were specific to younger women, including feeling pressured to make important life decisions earlier than they would have liked, such as about family planning and risk reducing surgery. Participants also reported feeling abandoned or forgotten because of lack of ongoing clinical contact, or feeling "stuck waiting" for screening to begin. However, none felt that these disadvantages were a reason to regret having testing. Findings in this small study suggest that having BRCA 1/2 predictive testing can have positive outcomes for young women even though they may be unable to access interventions such as breast screening. However it may be helpful to encourage young women during pre-test counseling to explore the decisions and choices they may face. These young women could benefit from ongoing support and follow up and increased interaction with healthcare professionals.

Predicting the Size and Timing of Sunspot Maximum for Cycle 24

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2010-01-01

For cycle 24, the minimum value of the 12-month moving average (12-mma) of the AA-geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (AAm) appears to have occurred in September 2009, measuring about 8.4 nT and following sunspot minimum by 9 months. This is the lowest value of AAm ever recorded, falling below that of 8.9 nT, previously attributed to cycle 14, which also is the smallest maximum amplitude (RM) cycle of the modern era (RM = 64.2). Based on the method of Ohl (the preferential association between RM and AAm for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to have RM = 55+/-17 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval). Instead, using a variation of Ohl's method, one based on using 2-cycle moving averages (2-cma), one expects cycle 23's 2-cma of RM to be about 115.5+/-8.7 (the +/-1 - sigma prediction interval), inferring an RM of about 62+/-35 for cycle 24. Hence, it seems clear that cycle 24 will be smaller in size than was seen in cycle 23 (RM = 120.8) and, likely, will be comparable in size to that of cycle 14. From the Waldmeier effect (the preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM for an ongoing cycle), one expects cycle 24 to be a slow-rising cycle (ASC > or equal to 48 months), having RM occurrence after December 2012, unless it turns out to be a statistical outlier.

Semantic and Syntactic Bases of Text Comprehension.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-25

processing . Psychological Review, 82, 407-428. Craik , F. & Lockhart , R. (1972). Levels of processing : A framework for memory research. Journal of...development, 55, 2083-2093. 56 BBN Laboratories Incorporated Perfetti. C. (1979). Levels of language and levels of processing . In L. Cermak & F. Craik ... processing cycle. Thus, the activation level of those representations that are used in ongoing cycles of integration (e.g. those related to the central

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zell, Wesley O.; Culver, Teresa B.; Sanford, Ward E.

2018-06-01

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF6, CFCs, and 3H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Identification of helix capping and β-turn motifs from NMR chemical shifts

PubMed Central

Shen, Yang; Bax, Ad

2012-01-01

We present an empirical method for identification of distinct structural motifs in proteins on the basis of experimentally determined backbone and 13Cβ chemical shifts. Elements identified include the N-terminal and C-terminal helix capping motifs and five types of β-turns: I, II, I′, II′ and VIII. Using a database of proteins of known structure, the NMR chemical shifts, together with the PDB-extracted amino acid preference of the helix capping and β-turn motifs are used as input data for training an artificial neural network algorithm, which outputs the statistical probability of finding each motif at any given position in the protein. The trained neural networks, contained in the MICS (motif identification from chemical shifts) program, also provide a confidence level for each of their predictions, and values ranging from ca 0.7–0.9 for the Matthews correlation coefficient of its predictions far exceed that attainable by sequence analysis. MICS is anticipated to be useful both in the conventional NMR structure determination process and for enhancing on-going efforts to determine protein structures solely on the basis of chemical shift information, where it can aid in identifying protein database fragments suitable for use in building such structures. PMID:22314702

Biomarkers of skin toxicity induced by anti-epidermal growth factor receptor antibody treatment in colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Kubo, Akiko; Hashimoto, Hironobu; Takahashi, Naoki; Yamada, Yasuhide

2016-01-14

Skin toxicity is a common symptom of anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibody treatment and is also a predictive marker of its efficacy in colorectal cancer patients. However, severe skin disorders induced by such antibodies negatively impact on the quality of life of patients and decreases drug compliance during treatment. If we can predict the high-risk group susceptible to severe skin toxicity before treatment, we can undertake the early management of any arising skin disorders and formulate a more accurate prognosis for anti-EGFR antibody treatment. Previous studies have identified molecular markers of skin toxicity induced by anti-EGFR antibody, such as EGFR polymorphisms, the expression of inflammatory chemokines and serum levels of EGFR ligands. A clinical trial was undertaken involving the escalation of cetuximab doses, guided by the grade of skin toxicity observed, such as no or low-grade, in metastatic colorectal cancer (the EVEREST study). The dose escalation of cetuximab was confirmed by a safety profile and had the tendency to achieve a higher response rate in KRAS wild-type patients. A large, prospective randomized trial is now ongoing (EVEREST 2) and the results of this trial may contribute to personalized medicine in KRAS wild-type colorectal cancer patients.

Biomarkers of skin toxicity induced by anti-epidermal growth factor receptor antibody treatment in colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Kubo, Akiko; Hashimoto, Hironobu; Takahashi, Naoki; Yamada, Yasuhide

2016-01-01

Skin toxicity is a common symptom of anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibody treatment and is also a predictive marker of its efficacy in colorectal cancer patients. However, severe skin disorders induced by such antibodies negatively impact on the quality of life of patients and decreases drug compliance during treatment. If we can predict the high-risk group susceptible to severe skin toxicity before treatment, we can undertake the early management of any arising skin disorders and formulate a more accurate prognosis for anti-EGFR antibody treatment. Previous studies have identified molecular markers of skin toxicity induced by anti-EGFR antibody, such as EGFR polymorphisms, the expression of inflammatory chemokines and serum levels of EGFR ligands. A clinical trial was undertaken involving the escalation of cetuximab doses, guided by the grade of skin toxicity observed, such as no or low-grade, in metastatic colorectal cancer (the EVEREST study). The dose escalation of cetuximab was confirmed by a safety profile and had the tendency to achieve a higher response rate in KRAS wild-type patients. A large, prospective randomized trial is now ongoing (EVEREST 2) and the results of this trial may contribute to personalized medicine in KRAS wild-type colorectal cancer patients. PMID:26811634

Neurocognitive predictors of remission of symptoms and social and role functioning in the early course of first-episode schizophrenia.

PubMed

Torgalsbøen, Anne-Kari; Mohn, Christine; Rishovd Rund, Bjørn

2014-04-30

In a Norwegian ongoing longitudinal study, we investigate the neurocognitive development in first-episode schizophrenia patients, and the influence of neurocognition on remission and real life functioning. In the present study, results from the early course of illness are reported. The sample includes 28 schizophrenia spectrum patients and 28 pairwise matched healthy controls. The patients were recruited from mental health service institutions and data on psychosocial functioning, remission and neurocognition were obtained through a clinical interview, an inventory on social and role functioning, operational criteria of remission, and a standardized neurocognitive test battery, the MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery (MCCB). Large effect size differences between patients and controls were observed at baseline on every cognitive domain, as well as statistically significant improvements on overall cognitive function at follow-up for the patient group. A remission rate of 61% was found. The neurocognitive baseline measure of Attention significantly predicted remission status at follow-up, whereas Attention and Working Memory at baseline predicted levels of social and role functioning. In the early course of the illness, more than half of the group of first-episode patients were in remission, and neurocognitive functions are significantly associated with both remission of symptoms and social and role functioning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After Disasters.

PubMed

Links, Jonathan M; Schwartz, Brian S; Lin, Sen; Kanarek, Norma; Mitrani-Reiser, Judith; Sell, Tara Kirk; Watson, Crystal R; Ward, Doug; Slemp, Cathy; Burhans, Robert; Gill, Kimberly; Igusa, Tak; Zhao, Xilei; Aguirre, Benigno; Trainor, Joseph; Nigg, Joanne; Inglesby, Thomas; Carbone, Eric; Kendra, James M

2018-02-01

Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster. We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties. The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature. The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:127-137).

Trajectories of depressive symptoms in foster youth transitioning into adulthood: the roles of emotion dysregulation and PTSD.

PubMed

Valdez, Christine E; Bailey, Brenda E; Santuzzi, Alecia M; Lilly, Michelle M

2014-01-01

Foster youth often experience considerable adversity both in and out of foster care, including histories of abuse and/or neglect, and further stressors within the foster system. These adverse experiences often occur at key developmental periods that can compromise emotional functioning and lead to posttraumatic symptomatology, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and emotion dysregulation. In the face of difficult histories and ongoing mental health challenges, youth transitioning into adulthood may be particularly vulnerable to increases in depressive symptoms. We explored the trajectory of depressive symptoms in foster youth from age 17 to 19 using a piecewise linear growth model, examining the effects of PTSD and emotion dysregulation on youth's depressive symptoms over time. Results revealed depressive symptoms decreased from age 17 to 18 but increased from 18 to 19. PTSD and emotion dysregulation predicted greater baseline depressive symptoms and decreases in symptoms from age 17 to 18, whereas only PTSD predicted increases in depressive symptoms from 18 to 19. Females reported higher levels of depressive symptoms compared to males. Additionally, emotion dysregulation was a stronger predictor of depressive symptoms for females than males. Implications for service delivery for foster youth transitioning into adulthood are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Role of Social Context in Shaping Student-Athlete Opinions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

How do student-athletes form opinions? This is a particularly important question given ongoing debates about whether student-athletes should be paid and/or allowed to unionize. These debates concern the rights and benefits accrued directly to student-athletes, and thus, understanding their attitudes is of obvious import. Yet, virtually no recent work has delved into how student-athletes form opinions on these issues. We fill this gap with a theoretical framework that predicts changes in social context alter opinions. This leads to the hypothesis that opinions will change once a student-athlete completes his/her career and finds him/herself in a distinct social network. We test the prediction with a survey, implemented in 2012, of one of the most notable athletic conferences in the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA): the Big Ten. We find that post-career student-athletes demonstrate higher levels of support for pay for play and unionization. Our results suggest that student-athletes' opinions seem to depend on their extant social contexts. While our data, from 2012, neither speak to current opinions – given the quickly evolving landscape of college athletics – nor demonstrate what reforms may be “best,” they do accentuate the power of social context in shaping student-athletes' attitudes. PMID:25522052

Laying the Groundwork for NCLEX Success: An Exploration of Adaptive Quizzing as an Examination Preparation Method.

PubMed

Cox-Davenport, Rebecca A; Phelan, Julia C

2015-05-01

First-time NCLEX-RN pass rates are an important indicator of nursing school success and quality. Nursing schools use different methods to anticipate NCLEX outcomes and help prevent student failure and possible threat to accreditation. This study evaluated the impact of a shift in NCLEX preparation policy at a BSN program in the southeast United States. The policy shifted from the use of predictor score thresholds to determine graduation eligibility to a more proactive remediation strategy involving adaptive quizzing. A descriptive correlational design evaluated the impact of an adaptive quizzing system designed to give students ongoing active practice and feedback and explored the relationship between predictor examinations and NCLEX success. Data from student usage of the system as well as scores on predictor tests were collected for three student cohorts. Results revealed a positive correlation between adaptive quizzing system usage and content mastery. Two of the 69 students in the sample did not pass the NCLEX. With so few students failing the NCLEX, predictability of any course variables could not be determined. The power of predictor examinations to predict NCLEX failure could also not be supported. The most consistent factor among students, however, was their content mastery level within the adaptive quizzing system. Implications of these findings are discussed.

The Renewed Promise of Medical Informatics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Summary The promise of the field of Medical Informatics has been great and its impact has been significant. In 1999, the Yearbook editors of the International Medical Informatics Association (IMIA) - also the authors of the present paper - sought to assess this impact by selecting a number of seminal papers in the field, and asking experts to comment on these articles. In particular, it was requested whether and how the expectations, represented by these papers, had been fulfilled since their publication several decades earlier. Each expert was also invited to comment on what might be expected in the future. In the present paper, these areas are briefly reviewed again. Where did these early papers have an impact and where were they not as successful as originally expected? It should be noted that the extraordinary developments in computer technology observed in the last two decades could not have been foreseen by these early researchers. In closing, some of the possibilities and limitations of research in medical informatics are outlined in the context of a framework that considers six levels of computer applications in medicine and health care. For each level, some predictions are made for the future, concluded with thoughts on fruitful areas for ongoing research in the field. PMID:27199195

ERCC1 and RRM1: ready for prime time?

PubMed

Besse, Benjamin; Olaussen, Ken A; Soria, Jean-Charles

2013-03-10

The quest for markers of sensitivity to cytotoxic agents has been ongoing for decades. In non-small-cell lung cancer, platinum compounds represent the cornerstone of systemic therapy. They target DNA and induce damage that cancer cells struggle to overcome. Somatic excision repair cross-complementing rodent repair deficiency, complementation group 1 (ERCC1), and ribonucleotide reductase M1 (RRM1) expression levels have been extensively explored as markers of DNA repair capacity in tumor cells. Although low ERCC1 and/or RRM1 expression is generally associated with sensitivity to platinum, the results published in retrospective and prospective studies are not always consistent. Against this background, we will examine in this review the function of these two biomarkers as well as the tools available for their assessment and the associated technical issues. Their prognostic and predictive values will be summarized and considered in terms of customizing systemic therapy according to biomarker (ERCC1 and RRM1) expression levels. We will also discuss why the use of both markers should at this point be restricted to clinical research and underline that functional readouts of DNA repair will help boost future strategies for biomarker discovery in the field.

The Renewed Promise of Medical Informatics.

PubMed

van Bemmel, J H; McCray, A T

2016-05-20

The promise of the field of Medical Informatics has been great and its impact has been significant. In 1999, the Yearbook editors of the International Medical Informatics Association (IMIA) - also the authors of the present paper - sought to assess this impact by selecting a number of seminal papers in the field, and asking experts to comment on these articles. In particular, it was requested whether and how the expectations, represented by these papers, had been fulfilled since their publication several decades earlier. Each expert was also invited to comment on what might be expected in the future. In the present paper, these areas are briefly reviewed again. Where did these early papers have an impact and where were they not as successful as originally expected? It should be noted that the extraordinary developments in computer technology observed in the last two decades could not have been foreseen by these early researchers. In closing, some of the possibilities and limitations of research in medical informatics are outlined in the context of a framework that considers six levels of computer applications in medicine and health care. For each level, some predictions are made for the future, concluded with thoughts on fruitful areas for ongoing research in the field.

Advanced Course Offerings and Completion in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math in Texas Public High Schools. REL 2018-276

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garland, Marshall; Rapaport, Amie

2017-01-01

Taking advanced high school courses predicts such postsecondary outcomes as enrolling in college, persisting in college courses, and completing a degree. In Texas, where Hispanic students make up 51 percent of the student population, their access to and enrollment in advanced courses is an ongoing concern despite recent gains. In particular,…

The BADER Consortium

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

neuromusculoskeletal injury o Determining factors that predict development and successful treatment of osteoarthritis, osteoporosis, low back pain , or other... students . The abstract highlights the collaborative work of the BADER-NICHD and potential to expand this model of collaborative work to other non-federal...regular contact with Drs. Dingwell and Wilken to complete on-going manuscripts.  Dr. McLagan and Ms. Mandy Salinas (U. Texas Ph.D. Student , hired Sept

Utility of Gene Expression and Ex vivo Steroid Production in a 96 h Assay for Predicting Impacts of Endocrine Active Chemicals on Fish Reproduction.

EPA Science Inventory

Development of efficient test methods that can generate reliable data to inform risk assessment is an on-going challenge in the field of ecotoxicology. In the present study we evaluated whether a 96 h in vivo assay focused on a small number of quantitative real-time polymerase ch...

Implementing Machine Learning in the PCWG Tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clifton, Andrew; Ding, Yu; Stuart, Peter

The Power Curve Working Group (www.pcwg.org) is an ad-hoc industry-led group to investigate the performance of wind turbines in real-world conditions. As part of ongoing experience-sharing exercises, machine learning has been proposed as a possible way to predict turbine performance. This presentation provides some background information about machine learning and how it might be implemented in the PCWG exercises.

Pulsed Out of Awareness: EEG Alpha Oscillations Represent a Pulsed-Inhibition of Ongoing Cortical Processing

PubMed Central

Mathewson, Kyle E.; Lleras, Alejandro; Beck, Diane M.; Fabiani, Monica; Ro, Tony; Gratton, Gabriele

2011-01-01

Alpha oscillations are ubiquitous in the brain, but their role in cortical processing remains a matter of debate. Recently, evidence has begun to accumulate in support of a role for alpha oscillations in attention selection and control. Here we first review evidence that 8–12 Hz oscillations in the brain have a general inhibitory role in cognitive processing, with an emphasis on their role in visual processing. Then, we summarize the evidence in support of our recent proposal that alpha represents a pulsed-inhibition of ongoing neural activity. The phase of the ongoing electroencephalography can influence evoked activity and subsequent processing, and we propose that alpha exerts its inhibitory role through alternating microstates of inhibition and excitation. Finally, we discuss evidence that this pulsed-inhibition can be entrained to rhythmic stimuli in the environment, such that preferential processing occurs for stimuli at predictable moments. The entrainment of preferential phase may provide a mechanism for temporal attention in the brain. This pulsed inhibitory account of alpha has important implications for many common cognitive phenomena, such as the attentional blink, and seems to indicate that our visual experience may at least some times be coming through in waves. PMID:21779257

Predictive Suppression of Cortical Excitability and Its Deficit in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Schroeder, Charles E.; Leitman, David I.

2013-01-01

Recent neuroscience advances suggest that when interacting with our environment, along with previous experience, we use contextual cues and regularities to form predictions that guide our perceptions and actions. The goal of such active “predictive sensing” is to selectively enhance the processing and representation of behaviorally relevant information in an efficient manner. Since a hallmark of schizophrenia is impaired information selection, we tested whether this deficiency stems from dysfunctional predictive sensing by measuring the degree to which neuronal activity predicts relevant events. In healthy subjects, we established that these mechanisms are engaged in an effort-dependent manner and that, based on a correspondence between human scalp and intracranial nonhuman primate recordings, their main role is a predictive suppression of excitability in task-irrelevant regions. In contrast, schizophrenia patients displayed a reduced alignment of neuronal activity to attended stimuli, which correlated with their behavioral performance deficits and clinical symptoms. These results support the relevance of predictive sensing for normal and aberrant brain function, and highlight the importance of neuronal mechanisms that mold internal ongoing neuronal activity to model key features of the external environment. PMID:23843536

Mechanisms of nitrogen deposition effects on temperate forest lichens and trees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, Therese S.; Clark, Christopher M.; Fenn, Mark E.; Jovan, Sarah E.; Perakis, Steven; Riddell, Jennifer; Schaberg, Paul G.; Greaver, Tara; Hastings, Meredith

2017-01-01

We review the mechanisms of deleterious nitrogen (N) deposition impacts on temperate forests, with a particular focus on trees and lichens. Elevated anthropogenic N deposition to forests has varied effects on individual organisms depending on characteristics both of the N inputs (form, timing, amount) and of the organisms (ecology, physiology) involved. Improved mechanistic knowledge of these effects can aid in developing robust predictions of how organisms respond to either increases or decreases in N deposition. Rising N levels affect forests in micro- and macroscopic ways from physiological responses at the cellular, tissue, and organism levels to influencing individual species and entire communities and ecosystems. A synthesis of these processes forms the basis for the overarching themes of this paper, which focuses on N effects at different levels of biological organization in temperate forests. For lichens, the mechanisms of direct effects of N are relatively well known at cellular, organismal, and community levels, though interactions of N with other stressors merit further research. For trees, effects of N deposition are better understood for N as an acidifying agent than as a nutrient; in both cases, the impacts can reflect direct effects on short time scales and indirect effects mediated through long-term soil and belowground changes. There are many gaps on fundamental N use and cycling in ecosystems, and we highlight the most critical gaps for understanding potential deleterious effects of N deposition. For lichens, these gaps include both how N affects specific metabolic pathways and how N is metabolized. For trees, these gaps include understanding the direct effects of N deposition onto forest canopies, the sensitivity of different tree species and mycorrhizal symbionts to N, the influence of soil properties, and the reversibility of N and acidification effects on plants and soils. Continued study of how these N response mechanisms interact with one another, and with other dimensions of global change, remains essential for predicting ongoing changes in lichen and tree populations across North American temperate forests.

Brain Functional Changes before, during, and after Clinical Pain.

PubMed

Hu, X; Racek, A J; Bellile, E; Nascimento, T D; Bender, M C; Toback, R L; Burnett, D; Khatib, L; McMahan, R; Kovelman, I; Ellwood, R P; DaSilva, A F

2018-05-01

This study used an emerging brain imaging technique, functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS), to investigate functional brain activation and connectivity that modulates sometimes traumatic pain experience in a clinical setting. Hemodynamic responses were recorded at bilateral somatosensory (S1) and prefrontal cortices (PFCs) from 12 patients with dentin hypersensitivity in a dental chair before, during, and after clinical pain. Clinical dental pain was triggered with 20 consecutive descending cold stimulations (32° to 0°C) to the affected teeth. We used a partial least squares path modeling framework to link patients' clinical pain experience with recorded hemodynamic responses at sequential stages and baseline resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC). Hemodynamic responses at PFC/S1 were sequentially elicited by expectation, cold detection, and pain perception at a high-level coefficient (coefficients: 0.92, 0.98, and 0.99, P < 0.05). We found that the pain ratings were positively affected only at a moderate level of coefficients by such sequence of functional activation (coefficient: 0.52, P < 0.05) and the baseline PFC-S1 RSFC (coefficient: 0.59, P < 0.05). Furthermore, when the dental pain had finally subsided, the PFC increased its functional connection with the affected S1 orofacial region contralateral to the pain stimulus and, in contrast, decreased with the ipsilateral homuncular S1 regions ( P < 0.05). Our study indicated for the first time that patients' clinical pain experience in the dental chair can be predicted concomitantly by their baseline functional connectivity between S1 and PFC, as well as their sequence of ongoing hemodynamic responses. In addition, this linked cascade of events had immediate after-effects on the patients' brain connectivity, even when clinical pain had already ceased. Our findings offer a better understating of the ongoing impact of affective and sensory experience in the brain before, during, and after clinical dental pain.

Bidirectional Relations of Impulsive Personality and Alcohol Use Across Three Waves of Data Collection.

PubMed

Kaiser, Alison J; Davis, Heather A; Milich, Richard; Smith, Gregory T; Charnigo, Richard

2018-06-11

To explore the bidirectional relations between alcohol use and three impulsive personality traits, to advance understanding of risk processes. 525 college students (mean age = 18.95 years) recruited in August 2008 and 2009 and followed up annually for three years. Personality and past/current substance use were assessed. T2 sensation seeking mediated the predictive relationship between T1 and T3 alcohol use, and T2 alcohol use mediated the predictive relationship between T1 and T3 sensation seeking. In addition, T2 alcohol problems mediated the predictive relationship between T1 alcohol use and T3 negative urgency. Findings support a bidirectional relationship between sensation seeking and alcohol use, and drinking anticipates drinking problems, which predict increases in negative urgency. For some individuals, there appears to be an ongoing process of increased risk in the form of increases in both drinking and high-risk personality traits.

Prediction of motor recovery after stroke: advances in biomarkers.

PubMed

Stinear, Cathy M

2017-10-01

Stroke remains a leading cause of adult disability, and the recovery of motor function after stroke is crucial for the patient to regain independence. However, making accurate predictions of a patient's motor recovery and outcome is difficult when based on clinical assessment alone. Clinical assessment of motor impairment within a few days of stroke can help to predict subsequent recovery, while neurophysiological and neuroimaging biomarkers of corticomotor structure and function can help to predict both motor recovery and motor outcome after stroke. The combination of biomarkers can provide clinically useful information when planning the personalised rehabilitation of a patient. These biomarkers can also be used for patient selection and stratification in trials investigating rehabilitation interventions that are initiated early after stroke. Ongoing multicentre trials that incorporate motor biomarkers could help to bring their use into routine clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting emissions from oil and gas operations in the Uinta Basin, Utah.

PubMed

Wilkey, Jonathan; Kelly, Kerry; Jaramillo, Isabel Cristina; Spinti, Jennifer; Ring, Terry; Hogue, Michael; Pasqualini, Donatella

2016-05-01

In this study, emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah's Uinta Basin are predicted (with uncertainty estimates) from 2015-2019 using a Monte-Carlo model of (a) drilling and production activity, and (b) emission factors. Cross-validation tests against actual drilling and production data from 2010-2014 show that the model can accurately predict both types of activities, returning median results that are within 5% of actual values for drilling, 0.1% for oil production, and 4% for gas production. A variety of one-time (drilling) and ongoing (oil and gas production) emission factors for greenhouse gases, methane, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are applied to the predicted oil and gas operations. Based on the range of emission factor values reported in the literature, emissions from well completions are the most significant source of emissions, followed by gas transmission and production. We estimate that the annual average VOC emissions rate for the oil and gas industry over the 2010-2015 time period was 44.2E+06 (mean) ± 12.8E+06 (standard deviation) kg VOCs per year (with all applicable emissions reductions). On the same basis, over the 2015-2019 period annual average VOC emissions from oil and gas operations are expected to drop 45% to 24.2E+06 ± 3.43E+06 kg VOCs per year, due to decreases in drilling activity and tighter emission standards. This study improves upon previous methods for estimating emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah's Uinta Basin by tracking one-time and ongoing emission events on a well-by-well basis. The proposed method has proven highly accurate at predicting drilling and production activity and includes uncertainty estimates to describe the range of potential emissions inventory outcomes. If similar input data are available in other oil and gas producing regions, then the method developed here could be applied to those regions as well.

Improving Fluency Skills of Secondary-Level Students from Diverse Backgrounds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Shea, Doris J.; McQuiston, Kathleen; McCollin, Michelle

2009-01-01

Many secondary-level students from culturally and linguistically diverse (CLD) backgrounds need to nurture their ongoing literacy growth to become independent, tenacious readers. Middle and high school teachers' use of direct and explicit strategies that are focused on culturally and linguistically responsive practices (e.g., use of relevant texts…

Using an agent-based model to evaluate the effect of producer specialization on the epidemiological resilience of livestock production networks.

PubMed

Wiltshire, Serge W

2018-01-01

An agent-based computer model that builds representative regional U.S. hog production networks was developed and employed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing trend towards increased producer specialization upon network-level resilience to catastrophic disease outbreaks. Empirical analyses suggest that the spatial distribution and connectivity patterns of contact networks often predict epidemic spreading dynamics. Our model heuristically generates realistic systems composed of hog producer, feed mill, and slaughter plant agents. Network edges are added during each run as agents exchange livestock and feed. The heuristics governing agents' contact patterns account for factors including their industry roles, physical proximities, and the age of their livestock. In each run, an infection is introduced, and may spread according to probabilities associated with the various modes of contact. For each of three treatments-defined by one-phase, two-phase, and three-phase production systems-a parameter variation experiment examines the impact of the spatial density of producer agents in the system upon the length and size of disease outbreaks. Resulting data show phase transitions whereby, above some density threshold, systemic outbreaks become possible, echoing findings from percolation theory. Data analysis reveals that multi-phase production systems are vulnerable to catastrophic outbreaks at lower spatial densities, have more abrupt percolation transitions, and are characterized by less-predictable outbreak scales and durations. Key differences in network-level metrics shed light on these results, suggesting that the absence of potentially-bridging producer-producer edges may be largely responsible for the superior disease resilience of single-phase "farrow to finish" production systems.

Satisfaction with the humanitarian response to the 2010 Pakistan floods: a call for increased accountability to beneficiaries.

PubMed

Kirsch, Thomas; Siddiqui, Muhammad Ahmed; Perrin, Paul Clayton; Robinson, W Courtland; Sauer, Lauren M; Doocy, Shannon

2013-07-01

Ascertain recipients' level of satisfaction with humanitarian response efforts. A multi-stage, 80×20 cluster sample randomized survey (1800 households) with probability proportional to size of households affected by the 2010 Indus river floods in Pakistan. The floods affected over 18 million households and led to more than 8 billion USD in response dollars. Less than 20% of respondents reported being satisfied with response, though a small increase in satisfaction levels was observed over the three time periods of interest. Within the first month, receipt of hygiene items, food and household items was most strongly predictive of overall satisfaction. At 6 months, positive receipt of medicines was also highly predictive of satisfaction. The proportion of households reporting unmet needs remained elevated throughout the 6-month period following the floods and varied from 50% to 80%. Needs were best met between 1 and 3 months postflood, when response was at its peak. Unmet needs were the greatest at 6 months, when response was being phased down. Access-limiting issues were rarely captured during routine monitoring and evaluation efforts and seem to be a significant predictor in dissatisfaction with relief efforts, at least in the case of Pakistan, another argument in favor of independent, population-based surveys of this kind. There is also need to better identify and serve those not residing in camps. Direct surveys of the affected population can be used operationally to assess ongoing needs, more appropriately redirect humanitarian resources, and ultimately, judge the overall quality of a humanitarian response.

Alcohol-Specific Parenting as a Mechanism of Parental Drinking and Alcohol Use Disorder Risk on Adolescent Alcohol Use Onset

PubMed Central

Handley, Elizabeth D.; Chassin, Laurie

2013-01-01

Objective: The primary aim of the current study was to examine three dimensions of alcohol-specific parenting (anti-alcohol parenting strategies, parental legitimacy in regulating adolescent drinking, and parental disclosure of negative alcohol experiences) as mechanisms in the prospective relations between parental drinking and alcohol use disorder (recovered, current, and never diagnosed) and adolescent alcohol use initiation. Method: Participants were from an ongoing longitudinal study of the intergenerational transmission of alcoholism. Structural equation modeling was used to test a maternal model (n = 268 adolescents and their mothers) and a paternal model (n = 204 adolescents and their fathers) of alcohol-specific parenting. Results: Results indicated that higher levels of drinking among mothers and current alcohol use disorder among fathers were related to more frequent parental disclosure of personal negative experiences with alcohol. Maternal disclosure of negative alcohol experiences mediated the effect of maternal drinking on adolescent onset of alcohol use such that more disclosure predicted a greater likelihood of adolescent drinking initiation at follow-up over and above general parenting. In addition, currently alcoholic mothers were perceived as having less legitimate authority to regulate adolescent drinking, and low levels of legitimacy among fathers was predictive of drinking onset among adolescents. Conclusions: Alcohol-specific parenting is a distinct and influential predictor of adolescent alcohol use initiation that is partially shaped by parents’ own drinking experiences. Moreover, parental conversations about their own personal experiences with alcohol may not represent a form of parent–child communication about drinking that deters adolescent drinking. PMID:23948527

Gearing up to handle the mosaic nature of life in the quest for orthologs.

PubMed

Forslund, Kristoffer; Pereira, Cecile; Capella-Gutierrez, Salvador; Sousa da Silva, Alan; Altenhoff, Adrian; Huerta-Cepas, Jaime; Muffato, Matthieu; Patricio, Mateus; Vandepoele, Klaas; Ebersberger, Ingo; Blake, Judith; Fernández Breis, Jesualdo Tomás; Boeckmann, Brigitte; Gabaldón, Toni; Sonnhammer, Erik; Dessimoz, Christophe; Lewis, Suzanna

2017-08-30

The Quest for Orthologs (QfO) is an open collaboration framework for experts in comparative phylogenomics and related research areas who have an interest in highly accurate orthology predictions and their applications. We here report highlights and discussion points from the QfO meeting 2015 held in Barcelona. Achievements in recent years have established a basis to support developments for improved orthology prediction and to explore new approaches. Central to the QfO effort is proper benchmarking of methods and services, as well as design of standardized datasets and standardized formats to allow sharing and comparison of results. Simultaneously, analysis pipelines have been improved, evaluated, and adapted to handle large datasets. All this would not have occurred without the long-term collaboration of Consortium members. Meeting regularly to review and coordinate complementary activities from a broad spectrum of innovative researchers clearly benefits the community. Highlights of the meeting include addressing sources of and legitimacy of disagreements between orthology calls, the context dependency of orthology definitions, special challenges encountered when analyzing very anciently rooted orthologies, orthology in the light of whole-genome duplications, and the concept of orthologous versus paralogous relationships at different levels, including domain-level orthology. Furthermore, particular needs for different applications (e.g. plant genomics, ancient gene families, and others) and the infrastructure for making orthology inferences available (e.g. interfaces with model organism databases) were discussed, with several ongoing efforts that are expected to be reported on during the upcoming 2017 QfO meeting. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Adolescent neural response to reward is related to participant sex and task motivation.

PubMed

Alarcón, Gabriela; Cservenka, Anita; Nagel, Bonnie J

2017-02-01

Risky decision making is prominent during adolescence, perhaps contributed to by heightened sensation seeking and ongoing maturation of reward and dopamine systems in the brain, which are, in part, modulated by sex hormones. In this study, we examined sex differences in the neural substrates of reward sensitivity during a risky decision-making task and hypothesized that compared with girls, boys would show heightened brain activation in reward-relevant regions, particularly the nucleus accumbens, during reward receipt. Further, we hypothesized that testosterone and estradiol levels would mediate this sex difference. Moreover, we predicted boys would make more risky choices on the task. While boys showed increased nucleus accumbens blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response relative to girls, sex hormones did not mediate this effect. As predicted, boys made a higher percentage of risky decisions during the task. Interestingly, boys also self-reported more motivation to perform well and earn money on the task, while girls self-reported higher state anxiety prior to the scan session. Motivation to earn money partially mediated the effect of sex on nucleus accumbens activity during reward. Previous research shows that increased motivation and salience of reinforcers is linked with more robust striatal BOLD response, therefore psychosocial factors, in addition to sex, may play an important role in reward sensitivity. Elucidating neurobiological mechanisms that support adolescent sex differences in risky decision making has important implications for understanding individual differences that lead to advantageous and adverse behaviors that affect health outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Virological diagnosis of Ebolavirus infection.

PubMed

Smith, D W; Rawlinson, W D; Kok, J; Dwyer, D E; Catton, M

2015-08-01

Ebolaviruses, and the other viral causes of haemorrhagic fevers (VHF) have always posed special problems for diagnostic laboratories. These arise from the rarity of human infections, minimal documented experience with test delivery and interpretation, the paucity of established commercial or in-house assays, the lack of clinical material for test development and validation, the high level containment required for handling live virus, the ongoing evolution of the viruses, and the high personal and public health requirements for accurate diagnosis. This article addresses the current situation and the ongoing challenges associated with delivering timely, high quality and safe testing within Australia for people exposed as part of the current major outbreak of Ebolavirus disease (EVD) in Western Africa. The members of the Public Health Laboratory Network have developed deliverable and reliable nucleic acid detection tests, and also have the laboratory capacity to handle the live viruses if necessary. However delivering and maintaining these services necessitates high levels of experience in developing and applying tests for exotic and emerging infections, strong national and international links and collaborations, ongoing monitoring and reassessment of test design and performance, innovative approaches to generation of positive control material, and a regular quality assurance program.

Virological diagnosis of Ebolavirus infection

PubMed Central

Smith, D. W.; Rawlinson, W. D.; Kok, J.; Dwyer, D. E.; Catton, M.

2015-01-01

Summary Ebolaviruses, and the other viral causes of haemorrhagic fevers (VHF) have always posed special problems for diagnostic laboratories. These arise from the rarity of human infections, minimal documented experience with test delivery and interpretation, the paucity of established commercial or in-house assays, the lack of clinical material for test development and validation, the high level containment required for handling live virus, the ongoing evolution of the viruses, and the high personal and public health requirements for accurate diagnosis. This article addresses the current situation and the ongoing challenges associated with delivering timely, high quality and safe testing within Australia for people exposed as part of the current major outbreak of Ebolavirus disease (EVD) in Western Africa. The members of the Public Health Laboratory Network have developed deliverable and reliable nucleic acid detection tests, and also have the laboratory capacity to handle the live viruses if necessary. However delivering and maintaining these services necessitates high levels of experience in developing and applying tests for exotic and emerging infections, strong national and international links and collaborations, ongoing monitoring and reassessment of test design and performance, innovative approaches to generation of positive control material, and a regular quality assurance program. PMID:26126050

Workshop on the Development of an Experimental Global Drought Information System (GDIS): Overview of Workshop Goals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2012-01-01

Among the key recommendations of a recent WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate is the development of an experimental global drought information system (GDIS). The timeliness of such an effort is evidenced by the wide aITay of relevant ongoing national and international (as well as regional and continental scale) efforts to provide drought information, including the US and North American drought monitors, and various integrating activities such as GEO and the Global Drought Portal. The workshop will review current capabilities and needs, and focus on the steps necessary to develop a GDIS that will build upon the extensive worldwide investments that have already been made in developing drought monitoring (including new space-based observations), drought risk management, and climate prediction capahilities.

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Advances in HIV-1 Vaccine Development

PubMed Central

Gao, Yong

2018-01-01

An efficacious HIV-1 vaccine is regarded as the best way to halt the ongoing HIV-1 epidemic. However, despite significant efforts to develop a safe and effective vaccine, the modestly protective RV144 trial remains the only efficacy trial to provide some level of protection against HIV-1 acquisition. This review will outline the history of HIV vaccine development, novel technologies being applied to HIV vaccinology and immunogen design, as well as the studies that are ongoing to advance our understanding of vaccine-induced immune correlates of protection. PMID:29614779

Corporate social responsibility of future radiology professionals.

PubMed

Collins, Sandra K; Collins, Kevin S

2011-01-01

Plagued by difficult economic times, many radiology managers may find themselves faced with ethical dilemmas surrounding ongoing organizational pressures to maintain high levels of productivity with restricted resources. This often times tests the level of moral resilience and corporate social consciousness of even the most experienced radiology professionals. A study was conducted to determine what Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) orientation and viewpoint future radiology professionals may have. The results of the study indicate that these study participants may initially consider patient care more important than profit maximization. Study results indicate that these specific future radiology professionals will not need laws, legal sanctions, and intensified rules to force them to act ethically. However,they may need ongoing training as to the necessity of profit maximization if they seek the highest quality of care possible for their patients.

Progress Towards a Microgravity CFD Validation Study Using the ISS SPHERES-SLOSH Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storey, Jedediah M.; Kirk, Daniel; Marsell, Brandon (Editor); Schallhorn, Paul (Editor)

2017-01-01

Understanding, predicting, and controlling fluid slosh dynamics is critical to safety and improving performance of space missions when a significant percentage of the spacecrafts mass is a liquid. Computational fluid dynamics simulations can be used to predict the dynamics of slosh, but these programs require extensive validation. Many CFD programs have been validated by slosh experiments using various fluids in earth gravity, but prior to the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experiment1, little experimental data for long-duration, zero-gravity slosh existed. This paper presents the current status of an ongoing CFD validation study using the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experimental data.

Decay modes of the excited pseudoscalar glueball

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshraim, Walaa I.; Schramm, Stefan

2017-01-01

We study three different chiral Lagrangians that describe the two- and three-body decays of an excited pseudoscalar glueball, JP C=0*-+ , into light mesons and charmonium states as well as into a scalar and pseudoscalar glueball. We compute the decay channels for an excited pseudoscalar glueball with a mass of 3.7 GeV and consider a ground-state pseudoscalar glueball of mass 2.6 GeV, following predictions from lattice QCD simulations. These states and channels are in reach of the ongoing BESIII experiment and the PANDA experiments at the upcoming FAIR facility experiment. We present the resulting decay branching ratios with a parameter-free prediction.

Progress Towards a Microgravity CFD Validation Study Using the ISS SPHERES-SLOSH Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storey, Jed; Kirk, Daniel (Editor); Marsell, Brandon (Editor); Schallhorn, Paul (Editor)

2017-01-01

Understanding, predicting, and controlling fluid slosh dynamics is critical to safety and improving performance of space missions when a significant percentage of the spacecrafts mass is a liquid. Computational fluid dynamics simulations can be used to predict the dynamics of slosh, but these programs require extensive validation. Many CFD programs have been validated by slosh experiments using various fluids in earth gravity, but prior to the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experiment, little experimental data for long-duration, zero-gravity slosh existed. This paper presents the current status of an ongoing CFD validation study using the ISS SPHERES-Slosh experimental data.

Fermilab muon g-2 experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorringe, Tim

2018-05-01

The Fermilab muon g-2 experiment will measure the muon anomalous magnetic moment aμ to 140 ppb - a four-fold improvement over the earlier Brookhaven experiment. The measurement of aμ is well known as a unique test of the standard model with broad sensitivity to new interactions, particles and phenomena. The goal of 140 ppb is commensurate with ongoing improvements in the SM prediction of the anomalous moment and addresses the longstanding 3.5σ discrepancy between the BNL result and the SM prediction. In this article I discuss the physics motivation and experimental technique for measuring aμ, and the current status and the future work for the project.

Breast magnetic resonance elastography: a review of clinical work and future perspectives.

PubMed

Bohte, A E; Nelissen, J L; Runge, J H; Holub, O; Lambert, S A; de Graaf, L; Kolkman, S; van der Meij, S; Stoker, J; Strijkers, G J; Nederveen, A J; Sinkus, R

2018-05-30

This review on magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) of the breast provides an overview of available literature and describes current developments in the field of breast MRE, including new transducer technology for data acquisition and multi-frequency-derived power-law behaviour of tissue. Moreover, we discuss the future potential of breast MRE, which goes beyond its original application as an additional tool in differentiating benign from malignant breast lesions. These areas of ongoing and future research include MRE for pre-operative tumour delineation, staging, monitoring and predicting response to treatment, as well as prediction of the metastatic potential of primary tumours. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J.

2016-01-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models.

Biodiversity and parasites of wildlife: helminths of Australasian marsupials.

PubMed

Beveridge, Ian; Spratt, David M

2015-04-01

Despite current attempts to document the extent of biodiversity on Earth, significant problems exist in fully documenting the helminth parasites of wildlife. Using the Australasian marsupials as an example, we examine some of these difficulties, including challenges in collecting uncommon host species, the ongoing description of new species of marsupials, the presence of cryptic species, and the decline in taxonomic expertise in Australia. Although optimistic global predictions have been made concerning the rate of discovery and description of new species of animals, these predictions may not apply in the case of specific groups of animals such as the Australasian marsupials. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seismic and Infrasound Location

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arrowsmith, Stephen J.; Begnaud, Michael L.

2014-03-19

This presentation includes slides on Signal Propagation Through the Earth/Atmosphere Varies at Different Scales; 3D Seismic Models: RSTT; Ray Coverage (Pn); Source-Specific Station Corrections (SSSCs); RSTT Conclusions; SALSA3D (SAndia LoS Alamos) Global 3D Earth Model for Travel Time; Comparison of IDC SSSCs to RSTT Predictions; SALSA3D; Validation and Model Comparison; DSS Lines in the Siberian Platform; DSS Line CRA-4 Comparison; Travel Time Δak135; Travel Time Prediction Uncertainty; SALSA3D Conclusions; Infrasound Data Processing: An example event; Infrasound Data Processing: An example event; Infrasound Location; How does BISL work?; BISL: Application to the 2013 DPRK Test; and BISL: Ongoing Research.

77 FR 27403 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List the Eastern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-10

... level), rising sea levels due to climate change may inundate some habitat occupied by the species and... current population levels, and current and projected trends; and (e) Past and ongoing conservation... Philosophical Society, Vol. 4 (1799), pp. 362-381). The Florida Museum of Natural History Web site 2011 ( http...

A review of HIV/AIDS system-level interventions

PubMed Central

Bauermeister, José A.; Tross, Susan; Ehrhardt, Anke A.

2010-01-01

The escalating HIV/AIDS epidemic worldwide demands that on-going prevention efforts be strengthened, disseminated, and scaled-up. System-level interventions refer to programs aiming to improve the functioning of an agency as well as the delivery of its services to the community. System-level interventions are a promising approach to HIV/AIDS prevention because they focus on (a) improving the agency’s ability to adopt evidence-based HIV prevention and care programs; (b) develop and establish policies and procedures that maximize the sustainability of on-going prevention and care efforts; and (c) improve decision-making processes such as incorporating the needs of communities into their tailored services. We reviewed studies focusing on system-level interventions by searching multiple electronic abstracting indices, including PsycInfo, PubMed, and ProQuest. Twenty-three studies out of 624 peer-reviewed studies (published from January 1985 to February 2007) met study criteria. Most of the studies focused on strengthening agency infrastructure, while other studies included collaborative partnerships and technical assistance programs. Our findings suggest that system-level interventions are promising in strengthening HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment efforts. Based on our findings, we propose recommendations for future work in developing and evaluating system-level interventions. PMID:18369722

Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; de Zeeuw, Dick; Smink, Paul A; Andress, Dennis; Brennan, John J; Coll, Blai; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; Hou, Fan Fan; Kohan, Donald; Kitzman, Dalane W; Makino, Hirofumi; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Perkovic, Vlado; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Tobe, Sheldon; Toto, Robert; Hoekman, Jarno; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2016-05-01

A recent phase II clinical trial (Reducing Residual Albuminuria in Subjects with Diabetes and Nephropathy with AtRasentan trial and an identical trial in Japan (RADAR/JAPAN)) showed that the endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan lowers albuminuria, blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and increases body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. We previously developed an algorithm, the Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which translates short-term drug effects into predictions of long-term effects on clinical outcomes. We used the PRE score on data from the RADAR/JAPAN study to predict the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes. We performed a post-hoc analysis of the RADAR/JAPAN randomized clinical trials in which 211 patients with type-2 diabetes and nephropathy were randomly assigned to atrasentan 0.75 mg/day, 1.25 mg/day, or placebo. A PRE score was developed in a background set of completed clinical trials using multivariate Cox models. The score was applied to baseline and week-12 risk marker levels of RADAR/JAPAN participants, to predict atrasentan effects on clinical outcomes. Outcomes were defined as doubling serum creatinine or end-stage renal disease and hospitalization for heart failure. The PRE score predicted renal risk changes of -23% and -30% for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day, respectively. PRE scores also predicted a small non-significant increase in heart failure risk for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day (+2% vs. +7%). Selecting patients with >30% albuminuria reduction from baseline (responders) improved renal outcome to almost 50% risk reduction, whereas non-responders showed no renal benefit. Based on the RADAR/JAPAN study, with short-term changes in risk markers, atrasentan is expected to decrease renal risk without increased risk of heart failure. Within this population albuminuria responders appear to contribute to the predicted improvements, whereas non-responders showed no benefit. The ongoing hard outcome trial (SONAR) in type 2 diabetic patients with >30% albuminuria reduction to atrasentan will allow us to assess the validity of these predictions. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Motivational Interviewing Fidelity in a Community Corrections Setting: Treatment Initiation and Subsequent Drug Use.

PubMed

Spohr, Stephanie A; Taxman, Faye S; Rodriguez, Mayra; Walters, Scott T

2016-06-01

Although substance use is common among people in the U.S. criminal justice system, treatment initiation remains an ongoing problem. This study assessed the reliability and predictive validity of the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity 3.1.1. (MITI) coding instrument in a community corrections sample. We used data from 80 substance-using clients who were participating in a clinical trial of MI in a probation setting. We analyzed 124 MI counseling sessions using the MITI, a coding system for documenting MI fidelity. Bivariate associations and logistic regression modeling were used to determine if MI-consistent behaviors predicted substance use or treatment initiation at a 2-month follow-up. We found a high level of agreement between coders on behavioral utterance counts. Counselors met at least beginning proficiency on most MITI summary scores. Probationers who initiated treatment at 2-month follow-up had significantly higher ratings of clinician empathy and MI spirit than clients who did not initiate treatment. Other MITI summary scores were not significantly different between clients who had initiated treatment and those who did not. MI spirit and empathy ratings were entered into a forward logistic regression in which MI spirit significantly predicted 2-month treatment initiation (χ(2) (1)=4.10, p<.05, R(2)=.05) but counselor empathy did not. MITI summary scores did not predict substance use at 2-month follow-up. Counselor MI-consistent relational skills were an important predictor of client treatment initiation. Counselor behaviors such as empathy and MI spirit may be important for developing client rapport with people in a probation setting. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using a Bayesian Network to predict shore-line change vulnerability to sea-level rise for the coasts of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise is an ongoing phenomenon that is expected to continue and is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments and infrastructure during the 21st century and beyond. Consequently, there is a need to assemble relevant datasets and to develop modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate the likelihood of particular sea-level rise impacts, such as coastal erosion, and to inform coastal management decisions with this information. This report builds on previous work that compiled oceanographic and geomorphic data as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the U.S. Atlantic coast, and developed a Bayesian Network to predict shoreline-change rates based on sea-level rise plus variables that describe the hydrodynamic and geologic setting. This report extends the previous analysis to include the Gulf and Pacific coasts of the continental United States and Alaska and Hawaii, which required using methods applied to the USGS CVI dataset to extract data for these regions. The Bayesian Network converts inputs that include observations of local rates of relative sea-level change, mean wave height, mean tide range, a geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and observed shoreline-change rates to calculate the probability of the shoreline-erosion rate exceeding a threshold level of 1 meter per year for the coasts of the United States. The calculated probabilities were compared to the historical observations of shoreline change to evaluate the hindcast success rate of the most likely probability of shoreline change. Highest accuracy was determined for the coast of Hawaii (98 percent success rate) and lowest accuracy was determined for the Gulf of Mexico (34 percent success rate). The minimum success rate rose to nearly 80 percent (Atlantic and Gulf coasts) when success included shoreline-change outcomes that were adjacent to the most likely outcome. Additionally, the probabilistic approach determines the confidence in calculated outcomes as the probability of the most likely outcome. The confidence was highest along the Pacific coast and it was lowest along the Alaskan coast.

Machine learning based job status prediction in scientific clusters

DOE PAGES

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex; Wu, Kesheng

2016-09-01

Large high-performance computing systems are built with increasing number of components with more CPU cores, more memory, and more storage space. At the same time, scientific applications have been growing in complexity. Together, they are leading to more frequent unsuccessful job statuses on HPC systems. From measured job statuses, 23.4% of CPU time was spent to the unsuccessful jobs. Here, we set out to study whether these unsuccessful job statuses could be anticipated from known job characteristics. To explore this possibility, we have developed a job status prediction method for the execution of jobs on scientific clusters. The Random Forestsmore » algorithm was applied to extract and characterize the patterns of unsuccessful job statuses. Experimental results show that our method can predict the unsuccessful job statuses from the monitored ongoing job executions in 99.8% the cases with 83.6% recall and 94.8% precision. Lastly, this prediction accuracy can be sufficiently high that it can be used to mitigation procedures of predicted failures.« less

Machine learning based job status prediction in scientific clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex; Wu, Kesheng

Large high-performance computing systems are built with increasing number of components with more CPU cores, more memory, and more storage space. At the same time, scientific applications have been growing in complexity. Together, they are leading to more frequent unsuccessful job statuses on HPC systems. From measured job statuses, 23.4% of CPU time was spent to the unsuccessful jobs. Here, we set out to study whether these unsuccessful job statuses could be anticipated from known job characteristics. To explore this possibility, we have developed a job status prediction method for the execution of jobs on scientific clusters. The Random Forestsmore » algorithm was applied to extract and characterize the patterns of unsuccessful job statuses. Experimental results show that our method can predict the unsuccessful job statuses from the monitored ongoing job executions in 99.8% the cases with 83.6% recall and 94.8% precision. Lastly, this prediction accuracy can be sufficiently high that it can be used to mitigation procedures of predicted failures.« less

Exposure to acute stress is associated with attenuated sweet taste.

PubMed

Al'Absi, Mustafa; Nakajima, Motohiro; Hooker, Stephanie; Wittmers, Larry; Cragin, Tiffany

2012-01-01

This study examined the effects of stress on taste perception. Participants (N = 38; 21 women) completed two laboratory sessions: one stress (public speaking, math, and cold pressor) and one control rest session. The taste perception test was conducted at the end of each session and included rating the intensity and pleasantness of sweet, salty, sour, and savory solutions at suprathreshold concentrations. Cardiovascular, hormonal, and mood measures were collected throughout the sessions. Participants showed the expected changes in cardiovascular, hormonal, and mood measures in response to stress. Reported intensity of the sweet solution was significantly lower on the stress day than on the rest day. Cortisol level poststress predicted reduced intensity of salt and sour, suggesting that stress-related changes in adrenocortical activity were related to reduced taste intensity. Results indicate that acute stress may alter taste perception, and ongoing research investigates the extent to which these changes mediate effects of stress on appetite. Copyright © 2011 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

The Effects of Organization Design and Patient Perceptions of Care on Switching Behavior and Reliance on a Health Care System Across Time.

PubMed

Labonte, Alan J; Benzer, Justin K; Burgess, James F; Cramer, Irene E; Meterko, Mark; Pogoda, Terri K; Charns, Martin P

2016-04-01

Sustaining ongoing relationships with patients is a strategic, clinically relevant goal of health care systems. This study develops and tests a conceptual model that aims to account for the influence of organization design, perceptions of quality of patient care, and other patient-level factors on the extent to which patients sustain reliance on a health care system. We use a longitudinal survey design and structural equation modeling to predict increases or decreases in patient reliance on the Department of Veterans Affairs health care system across a 4-year period for Veterans with Parkinson's Disease. Our findings show that specialized and integrated clinical practices have a positive association with the quality of patient care. Health care systems may be able to foster long-term relations with patients and improve service quality by allocating resources to form integrated, specialized, disease-specific centers of care designed for patients with chronic illnesses. © The Author(s) 2016.

Study of the Helicon Source Operation in the Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR) Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molvig, Kim; Batishchev, Oleg

2003-01-01

During this research period the following models of the VASIMR helicon discharge have been further developed and applied to analyze the on-going VX- 10 ASPL experiment: A) 1D semi-analytical model for a mixed-collisional propellant flow B) OD power and balance model for the whole helicon discharge In this particular research period we have concentrated on the MW-level performance of the VASIMR helicon source. Favorable high-power scaling and reduced ionization costs were obtained, and presented at the VASIMR NASA review in the Fall '02. This Grant is continuation of the previous NAG9-1224 award. The research results are summarized in 14 publications; they were presented as 20+ talks at the major International Conferences and scientific seminars at the leading Academic and Research Institutions. The reported results allowed helicon discharge characterization, understanding of the several experimental observations, and helped to make predictions and propose structural modifications for the advanced VASIMR helicon source operation.

Percent-level-precision physics at the Tevatron: next-to-next-to-leading order QCD corrections to qq¯→tt¯+X.

PubMed

Bärnreuther, Peter; Czakon, Michał; Mitov, Alexander

2012-09-28

We compute the next-to-next-to-leading order QCD corrections to the partonic reaction that dominates top-pair production at the Tevatron. This is the first ever next-to-next-to-leading order calculation of an observable with more than two colored partons and/or massive fermions at hadron colliders. Augmenting our fixed order calculation with soft-gluon resummation through next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy, we observe that the predicted total inclusive cross section exhibits a very small perturbative uncertainty, estimated at ±2.7%. We expect that once all subdominant partonic reactions are accounted for, and work in this direction is ongoing, the perturbative theoretical uncertainty for this observable could drop below ±2%. Our calculation demonstrates the power of our computational approach and proves it can be successfully applied to all processes at hadron colliders for which high-precision analyses are needed.

Interactions between climate change and contaminants.

PubMed

Schiedek, Doris; Sundelin, Brita; Readman, James W; Macdonald, Robie W

2007-12-01

There is now general consensus that climate change is a global threat and a challenge for the 21st century. More and more information is available demonstrating how increased temperature may affect aquatic ecosystems and living resources or how increased water levels may impact coastal zones and their management. Many ecosystems are also affected by human releases of contaminants, for example from land based sources or the atmosphere, which also may cause severe effects. So far these two important stresses on ecosystems have mainly been discussed independently. The present paper is intended to increase awareness among scientists, coastal zone managers and decision makers that climate change will affect contaminant exposure and toxic effects and that both forms of stress will impact aquatic ecosystems and biota. Based on examples from different ecosystems, we discuss risks anticipated from contaminants in a rapidly changing environment and the research required to understand and predict how on-going and future climate change may alter risks from chemical pollution.

Percent-Level-Precision Physics at the Tevatron: Next-to-Next-to-Leading Order QCD Corrections to qq¯→tt¯+X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bärnreuther, Peter; Czakon, Michał; Mitov, Alexander

2012-09-01

We compute the next-to-next-to-leading order QCD corrections to the partonic reaction that dominates top-pair production at the Tevatron. This is the first ever next-to-next-to-leading order calculation of an observable with more than two colored partons and/or massive fermions at hadron colliders. Augmenting our fixed order calculation with soft-gluon resummation through next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy, we observe that the predicted total inclusive cross section exhibits a very small perturbative uncertainty, estimated at ±2.7%. We expect that once all subdominant partonic reactions are accounted for, and work in this direction is ongoing, the perturbative theoretical uncertainty for this observable could drop below ±2%. Our calculation demonstrates the power of our computational approach and proves it can be successfully applied to all processes at hadron colliders for which high-precision analyses are needed.

Cratering Soil by Impinging Jets of Gas, with Application to Landing Rockets on Planetary Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metzger, Philip T.; Vu, B. T.; Taylor, D. E.; Kromann, M. J.; Fuchs, M.; Yutko, B.; Dokos, A.; Immer, Christopher D.; Lane, J. E.; Dunkel, Michael B.;

Challenges of NDE Simulation Tool Challenges of NDE Simulation Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leckey, Cara A. C.; Juarez, Peter D.; Seebo, Jeffrey P.; Frank, Ashley L.

2015-01-01

Realistic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) simulation tools enable inspection optimization and predictions of inspectability for new aerospace materials and designs. NDE simulation tools may someday aid in the design and certification of advanced aerospace components; potentially shortening the time from material development to implementation by industry and government. Furthermore, modeling and simulation are expected to play a significant future role in validating the capabilities and limitations of guided wave based structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. The current state-of-the-art in ultrasonic NDE/SHM simulation cannot rapidly simulate damage detection techniques for large scale, complex geometry composite components/vehicles with realistic damage types. This paper discusses some of the challenges of model development and validation for composites, such as the level of realism and scale of simulation needed for NASA' applications. Ongoing model development work is described along with examples of model validation studies. The paper will also discuss examples of the use of simulation tools at NASA to develop new damage characterization methods, and associated challenges of validating those methods.

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael L.; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A.; Howe, Peter D.; Pretis, Felix; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-01

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that “global warming is happening.” This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved. PMID:27994143

Germline determinants of clinical outcome of cutaneous melanoma

PubMed Central

Vogelsang, Matjaz; Wilson, Melissa; Kirchhoff, Tomas

2016-01-01

Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is the most lethal form of skin cancer. Despite the constant increase of melanoma incidence, which is in part due to incremental advances in early diagnostic modalities, mortality rates have not improved over the last decade and for advanced stages remain steadily high. While conventional prognostic biomarkers currently in use find significant utility for predicting overall general survival probabilities, they are not sensitive enough for a more personalized clinical assessment on an individual level. In recent years, the advent of genomic technologies has brought the promise of identification of germline DNA alterations that may associate with CM outcomes and hence represent novel biomarkers for clinical utilization. This review attempts to summarize the current state of knowledge of germline genetic factors studied for their impact on melanoma clinical outcomes. We also discuss ongoing problems and hurdles in validating such surrogates, and we also project future directions in discovery of more powerful germline genetic factors with clinical utility in melanoma prognostication. PMID:26342156

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Mann, Michael L; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A; Howe, Peter D; Pretis, Felix; Tang, Xiaojing; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-03

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.

Reconstruction of Exposure to m-Xylene from Human Biomonitoring Data Using PBPK Modelling, Bayesian Inference, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

PubMed Central

McNally, Kevin; Cotton, Richard; Cocker, John; Jones, Kate; Bartels, Mike; Rick, David; Price, Paul; Loizou, George

2012-01-01

There are numerous biomonitoring programs, both recent and ongoing, to evaluate environmental exposure of humans to chemicals. Due to the lack of exposure and kinetic data, the correlation of biomarker levels with exposure concentrations leads to difficulty in utilizing biomonitoring data for biological guidance values. Exposure reconstruction or reverse dosimetry is the retrospective interpretation of external exposure consistent with biomonitoring data. We investigated the integration of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling, global sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a population estimate of inhalation exposure to m-xylene. We used exhaled breath and venous blood m-xylene and urinary 3-methylhippuric acid measurements from a controlled human volunteer study in order to evaluate the ability of our computational framework to predict known inhalation exposures. We also investigated the importance of model structure and dimensionality with respect to its ability to reconstruct exposure. PMID:22719759

Recent advances in omic technologies for meat quality management.

PubMed

Picard, B; Lebret, B; Cassar-Malek, I; Liaubet, L; Berri, C; Le Bihan-Duval, E; Hocquette, J F; Renand, G

2015-11-01

The knowledge of the molecular organization of living organisms evolved considerably during the last years. The methodologies associated also progressed with the development of the high-throughput sequencing (SNP array, RNAseq, etc.) and of genomic tools allowing the simultaneous analysis of hundreds or thousands of genes, proteins or metabolites. In farm animals, some proteins, mRNAs or metabolites whose abundance has been associated with meat quality traits have been detected in pig, cattle, chicken. They constitute biomarkers for the assessment and prediction of qualities of interest in each species, with potential biomarkers across species. The ongoing development of rapid methods will allow their use for decision-making and management tools in slaughterhouses, to better allocate carcasses or cuts to the appropriate markets. Besides, their application on living animals will help to improve genetic selection and to adapt a breeding system to fulfill expected quality level. The ultimate goal is to propose effective molecular tools for the management of product quality in meat production chains. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Single-trial laser-evoked potentials feature extraction for prediction of pain perception.

PubMed

Huang, Gan; Xiao, Ping; Hu, Li; Hung, Yeung Sam; Zhang, Zhiguo

2013-01-01

Pain is a highly subjective experience, and the availability of an objective assessment of pain perception would be of great importance for both basic and clinical applications. The objective of the present study is to develop a novel approach to extract pain-related features from single-trial laser-evoked potentials (LEPs) for classification of pain perception. The single-trial LEP feature extraction approach combines a spatial filtering using common spatial pattern (CSP) and a multiple linear regression (MLR). The CSP method is effective in separating laser-evoked EEG response from ongoing EEG activity, while MLR is capable of automatically estimating the amplitudes and latencies of N2 and P2 from single-trial LEP waveforms. The extracted single-trial LEP features are used in a Naïve Bayes classifier to classify different levels of pain perceived by the subjects. The experimental results show that the proposed single-trial LEP feature extraction approach can effectively extract pain-related LEP features for achieving high classification accuracy.

Understanding the effect of social capital on the depression of urban Chinese adolescents: an integrative framework.

PubMed

Wu, Qiaobing; Xie, Bin; Chou, Chih-Ping; Palmer, Paula H; Gallaher, Peggy E; Johnson, C Anderson

2010-03-01

Using data from an ongoing longitudinal study of 5,164 adolescents and their parents from seven cities in mainland China, this study investigated how social capital embedded in the family and the community, together with family human capital and financial capital, influenced the depressive symptoms of urban Chinese adolescents within an integrative framework. The structural equation modeling results suggested that higher community social capital was associated with lower level of adolescent depressive symptoms and was the strongest predictor among all these contextual factors. Family social capital played a significant role in mediating the effects of all other contextual factors on adolescent depressive symptoms. Unexpectedly, higher family financial capital predicted increased depressive symptoms both directly and indirectly through its negative effect on family social capital. As for gender, female adolescents reported more depressive symptoms as a result of less available family social capital. Implications of these findings for theory, practice, policy, and future research are discussed.

Anticipatory fear and helplessness predict PTSD and depression in domestic violence survivors.

PubMed

Salcioglu, Ebru; Urhan, Sevim; Pirinccioglu, Tugba; Aydin, Sule

2017-01-01

Embracing the conceptual framework of contemporary learning theory, this study tested the hypothesis that anticipatory fear due to a sense of ongoing threat to safety and sense of helplessness in life would be the strongest determinants of PTSD and depression in domestic violence survivors. Participants were 220 domestic violence survivors recruited consecutively from 12 shelters for women in Turkey (response rate 70%). They were assessed with the Semi-Structured Interview for Survivors of Domestic Violence, Traumatic Stress Symptom Checklist, Depression Rating Scale, and Fear and Sense of Control Scale. Survivors were exposed to 21 (SD = 6.7) physical, psychological, and sexual violence stressors over 11.3 (SD = 8.8) years. They reported high levels of peritrauma perceived distress of and lack of control over stressor events. Approximately 10 months after trauma, many feared reliving the same domestic violence events, felt helpless, feared for their life, and felt in danger. PTSD and depression rates were 48.2% and 32.7%, respectively. The strongest predictors of PTSD and depression were fear due to a sense of ongoing threat to safety and sense of helplessness in life, which explained the largest amount of variances in these psychiatric conditions. The findings support the contemporary learning theory of traumatic stress and are consistent with findings of studies involving earthquake, war, and torture survivors. They imply that trauma-focused interventions designed to overcome fear, reduce helplessness, and restore sense of control over one's life would be effective in PTSD and depression in domestic violence survivors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. Furthermore, the source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Our observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. The phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived frommore » activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.« less

Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals

DOE PAGES

Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.

2016-01-06

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. Furthermore, the source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Our observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. The phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived frommore » activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.« less

Level of Intrauterine Cocaine Exposure and Neuropsychological Test Scores in Preadolescence: Subtle Effects on Auditory Attention and Narrative Memory

PubMed Central

Beeghly, Marjorie; Rose-Jacobs, Ruth; Martin, Brett M.; Cabral, Howard J.; Heeren, Timothy C.; Frank, Deborah A.

2014-01-01

Neuropsychological processes such as attention and memory contribute to children's higher-level cognitive and language functioning and predict academic achievement. The goal of this analysis was to evaluate whether level of intrauterine cocaine exposure (IUCE) alters multiple aspects of preadolescents' neuropsychological functioning assessed using a single age-referenced instrument, the NEPSY: A Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment (NEPSY) [71], after controlling for relevant covariates. Participants included 137 term 9.5-year-old children from low-income urban backgrounds (51% male, 90% African American/Caribbean) from an ongoing prospective longitudinal study. Level of IUCE was assessed in the newborn period using infant meconium and maternal report. 52% of the children had IUCE (65% with lighter IUCE, and 35% with heavier IUCE), and 48% were unexposed. Infants with Fetal Alcohol Syndrome, HIV seropositivity, or intrauterine exposure to illicit substances other than cocaine and marijuana were excluded. At the 9.5-year follow-up visit, trained examiners masked to IUCE and background variables evaluated children's neuropsychological functioning using the NEPSY. The association between level of IUCE and NEPSY outcomes was evaluated in a series of linear regressions controlling for intrauterine exposure to other substances and relevant child, caregiver, and demographic variables. Results indicated that level of IUCE was associated with lower scores on the Auditory Attention and Narrative Memory tasks, both of which require auditory information processing and sustained attention for successful performance. However, results did not follow the expected ordinal, dose-dependent pattern. Children's neuropsychological test scores were also altered by a variety of other biological and psychosocial factors. PMID:24978115

Predator-Prey Dynamics Driven by Feedback between Functionally Diverse Trophic Levels

PubMed Central

Wirtz, Kai; Gaedke, Ursula

2011-01-01

Neglecting the naturally existing functional diversity of communities and the resulting potential to respond to altered conditions may strongly reduce the realism and predictive power of ecological models. We therefore propose and study a predator-prey model that describes mutual feedback via species shifts in both predator and prey, using a dynamic trait approach. Species compositions of the two trophic levels were described by mean functional traits—prey edibility and predator food-selectivity—and functional diversities by the variances. Altered edibility triggered shifts in food-selectivity so that consumers continuously respond to the present prey composition, and vice versa. This trait-mediated feedback mechanism resulted in a complex dynamic behavior with ongoing oscillations in the mean trait values, reflecting continuous reorganization of the trophic levels. The feedback was only possible if sufficient functional diversity was present in both trophic levels. Functional diversity was internally maintained on the prey level as no niche existed in our system, which was ideal under any composition of the predator level due to the trade-offs between edibility, growth and carrying capacity. The predators were only subject to one trade-off between food-selectivity and grazing ability and in the absence of immigration, one predator type became abundant, i.e., functional diversity declined to zero. In the lack of functional diversity the system showed the same dynamics as conventional models of predator-prey interactions ignoring the potential for shifts in species composition. This way, our study identified the crucial role of trade-offs and their shape in physiological and ecological traits for preserving diversity. PMID:22096560

Individualised gonadotropin dose selection using markers of ovarian reserve for women undergoing in vitro fertilisation plus intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI).

PubMed

Lensen, Sarah F; Wilkinson, Jack; Leijdekkers, Jori A; La Marca, Antonio; Mol, Ben Willem J; Marjoribanks, Jane; Torrance, Helen; Broekmans, Frank J

2018-02-01

During a cycle of in vitro fertilisation plus intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI), women receive daily doses of gonadotropin follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) to induce multifollicular development in the ovaries. Generally, the dose of FSH is associated with the number of eggs retrieved. A normal response to stimulation is often considered desirable, for example the retrieval of 5 to 15 oocytes. Both poor and hyper-response are associated with increased chance of cycle cancellation. Hyper-response is also associated with increased risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). Clinicians often individualise the FSH dose using patient characteristics predictive of ovarian response such as age. More recently, clinicians have begun using ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) to predict ovarian response based on the measurement of various biomarkers, including basal FSH (bFSH), antral follicle count (AFC), and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH). It is unclear whether individualising FSH dose based on these markers improves clinical outcomes. To assess the effects of individualised gonadotropin dose selection using markers of ovarian reserve in women undergoing IVF/ICSI. We searched the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group Specialised Register, Cochrane Central Register of Studies Online, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, LILACS, DARE, ISI Web of Knowledge, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organisation International Trials Registry Platform search portal from inception to 27th July 2017. We checked the reference lists of relevant reviews and included studies. We included trials that compared different doses of FSH in women with a defined ORT profile (i.e. predicted low, normal or high responders based on AMH, AFC, and/or bFSH) and trials that compared an individualised dosing strategy (based on at least one ORT measure) versus uniform dosing or a different individualised dosing algorithm. We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. Primary outcomes were live birth/ongoing pregnancy and severe OHSS. Secondary outcomes included clinical pregnancy, moderate or severe OHSS, multiple pregnancy, oocyte yield, cycle cancellations, and total dose and duration of FSH administration. We included 20 trials (N = 6088); however, we treated those trials with multiple comparisons as separate trials for the purpose of this review. Meta-analysis was limited due to clinical heterogeneity. Evidence quality ranged from very low to moderate. The main limitations were imprecision and risk of bias associated with lack of blinding.Direct dose comparisons in women according to predicted responseAll evidence was low or very low quality.Due to differences in dose comparisons, caution is warranted in interpreting the findings of five small trials assessing predicted low responders. The effect estimates were very imprecise, and increased FSH dosing may or may not have an impact on rates of live birth/ongoing pregnancy, OHSS, and clinical pregnancy.Similarly, in predicted normal responders (nine studies, three comparisons), higher doses may or may not impact the probability of live birth/ongoing pregnancy (e.g. 200 versus 100 international units: OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.36; N = 522; 2 studies; I 2 = 0%) or clinical pregnancy. Results were imprecise, and a small benefit or harm remains possible. There were too few events for the outcome of OHSS to enable any inferences.In predicted high responders, lower doses may or may not have an impact on rates of live birth/ongoing pregnancy (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.46; N = 521; 1 study), OHSS, and clinical pregnancy. However, lower doses probably reduce the likelihood of moderate or severe OHSS (Peto OR 2.31, 95% CI 0.80 to 6.67; N = 521; 1 study).ORT-algorithm studiesFour trials compared an ORT-based algorithm to a non-ORT control group. Rates of live birth/ongoing pregnancy and clinical pregnancy did not appear to differ by more than a few percentage points (respectively: OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.23; N = 2823, 4 studies; I 2 = 34%; OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.13, 4 studies, I 2 =0%, moderate-quality evidence). However, ORT algorithms probably reduce the likelihood of moderate or severe OHSS (Peto OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.00; N = 2823; 4 studies; I 2 = 0%, low quality evidence). There was insufficient evidence to determine whether the groups differed in rates of severe OHSS (Peto OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.14 to 1.99; N = 1494; 3 studies; I 2 = 0%, low quality evidence). Our findings suggest that if the chance of live birth with a standard dose is 26%, the chance with ORT-based dosing would be between 24% and 30%. If the chance of moderate or severe OHSS with a standard dose is 2.5%, the chance with ORT-based dosing would be between 0.8% and 2.5%. These results should be treated cautiously due to heterogeneity in the study designs. We did not find that tailoring the FSH dose in any particular ORT population (low, normal, high ORT), influenced rates of live birth/ongoing pregnancy but we could not rule out differences, due to sample size limitations. In predicted high responders, lower doses of FSH seemed to reduce the overall incidence of moderate and severe OHSS. Moderate-quality evidence suggests that ORT-based individualisation produces similar live birth/ongoing pregnancy rates to a policy of giving all women 150 IU. However, in all cases the confidence intervals are consistent with an increase or decrease in the rate of around five percentage points with ORT-based dosing (e.g. from 25% to 20% or 30%). Although small, a difference of this magnitude could be important to many women. Further, ORT algorithms reduced the incidence of OHSS compared to standard dosing of 150 IU, probably by facilitating dose reductions in women with a predicted high response. However, the size of the effect is unclear. The included studies were heterogeneous in design, which limited the interpretation of pooled estimates, and many of the included studies had a serious risk of bias.Current evidence does not provide a clear justification for adjusting the standard dose of 150 IU in the case of poor or normal responders, especially as increased dose is generally associated with greater total FSH dose and therefore greater cost. However, a decreased dose in predicted high responders may reduce OHSS.

Prediction of Human Activity by Discovering Temporal Sequence Patterns.

PubMed

Li, Kang; Fu, Yun

2014-08-01

Early prediction of ongoing human activity has become more valuable in a large variety of time-critical applications. To build an effective representation for prediction, human activities can be characterized by a complex temporal composition of constituent simple actions and interacting objects. Different from early detection on short-duration simple actions, we propose a novel framework for long -duration complex activity prediction by discovering three key aspects of activity: Causality, Context-cue, and Predictability. The major contributions of our work include: (1) a general framework is proposed to systematically address the problem of complex activity prediction by mining temporal sequence patterns; (2) probabilistic suffix tree (PST) is introduced to model causal relationships between constituent actions, where both large and small order Markov dependencies between action units are captured; (3) the context-cue, especially interactive objects information, is modeled through sequential pattern mining (SPM), where a series of action and object co-occurrence are encoded as a complex symbolic sequence; (4) we also present a predictive accumulative function (PAF) to depict the predictability of each kind of activity. The effectiveness of our approach is evaluated on two experimental scenarios with two data sets for each: action-only prediction and context-aware prediction. Our method achieves superior performance for predicting global activity classes and local action units.

Development of a fracture toughness test for balloon film

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tielking, John T.

1991-01-01

This paper describes the equipment and test procedures being developed in an ongoing project to measure J(c) for film in a biaxial stress state. The objective of the research is to confirm J(c) as a material property whose value will permit the initiation of film tear growth to be predicted. Results are presented for two polyethylene balloon films, an LDPE and LLDPE, of thickness 0.8 mil.

Organizational principles of cloud storage to support collaborative biomedical research.

PubMed

Kanbar, Lara J; Shalish, Wissam; Robles-Rubio, Carlos A; Precup, Doina; Brown, Karen; Sant'Anna, Guilherme M; Kearney, Robert E

2015-08-01

This paper describes organizational guidelines and an anonymization protocol for the management of sensitive information in interdisciplinary, multi-institutional studies with multiple collaborators. This protocol is flexible, automated, and suitable for use in cloud-based projects as well as for publication of supplementary information in journal papers. A sample implementation of the anonymization protocol is illustrated for an ongoing study dealing with Automated Prediction of EXtubation readiness (APEX).

Aeropropulsion 1987. Session 3: Internal Fluid Mechanics Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

Internal fluid mechanics research at Lewis is directed toward an improved understanding of the important flow physics affecting aerospace propulsion systems, and applying this improved understanding to formulate accurate predictive codes. To this end, research is conducted involving detailed experimentation and analysis. The presentations in this session summarize ongoing work and indicated future emphasis in three major research thrusts: namely, inlets, ducts, and nozzles; turbomachinery; and chemical reacting flows.

Suspension Parameter Measurements of Wheeled Military Vehicles

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

suspension through the wheel pads. The SPIdER was designed so that in the future, with a modest amount of modification , it can be upgraded to include the...AND MOBILITY (P&M) MINI-SYMPOSIUM AUGUST 14-16, MICHIGAN SUSPENSION PARAMETER MEASUREMENTS OF WHEELED MILITARY VEHICLES Dale Andreatta Gary...was built to measure the suspension parameters of any military wheeled vehicle. This is part of an ongoing effort to model and predict vehicle

The role of language in emotion: predictions from psychological constructionism

PubMed Central

Lindquist, Kristen A.; MacCormack, Jennifer K.; Shablack, Holly

2015-01-01

Common sense suggests that emotions are physical types that have little to do with the words we use to label them. Yet recent psychological constructionist accounts reveal that language is a fundamental element in emotion that is constitutive of both emotion experiences and perceptions. According to the psychological constructionist Conceptual Act Theory (CAT), an instance of emotion occurs when information from one’s body or other people’s bodies is made meaningful in light of the present situation using concept knowledge about emotion. The CAT suggests that language plays a role in emotion because language supports the conceptual knowledge used to make meaning of sensations from the body and world in a given context. In the present paper, we review evidence from developmental and cognitive science to reveal that language scaffolds concept knowledge in humans, helping humans to acquire abstract concepts such as emotion categories across the lifespan. Critically, language later helps individuals use concepts to make meaning of on-going sensory perceptions. Building on this evidence, we outline predictions from a psychological constructionist model of emotion in which language serves as the “glue” for emotion concept knowledge, binding concepts to embodied experiences and in turn shaping the ongoing processing of sensory information from the body and world to create emotional experiences and perceptions. PMID:25926809

Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future†

PubMed Central

Schrodi, Steven J.; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Shan, Ying; Tromp, Gerard; Sninsky, John J.; Callear, Amy P.; Carter, Tonia C.; Ye, Zhan; Haines, Jonathan L.; Brilliant, Murray H.; Crane, Paul K.; Smelser, Diane T.; Elston, Robert C.; Weeks, Daniel E.

2014-01-01

Translation of results from genetic findings to inform medical practice is a highly anticipated goal of human genetics. The aim of this paper is to review and discuss the role of genetics in medically-relevant prediction. Germline genetics presages disease onset and therefore can contribute prognostic signals that augment laboratory tests and clinical features. As such, the impact of genetic-based predictive models on clinical decisions and therapy choice could be profound. However, given that (i) medical traits result from a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors, (ii) the underlying genetic architectures for susceptibility to common diseases are not well-understood, and (iii) replicable susceptibility alleles, in combination, account for only a moderate amount of disease heritability, there are substantial challenges to constructing and implementing genetic risk prediction models with high utility. In spite of these challenges, concerted progress has continued in this area with an ongoing accumulation of studies that identify disease predisposing genotypes. Several statistical approaches with the aim of predicting disease have been published. Here we summarize the current state of disease susceptibility mapping and pharmacogenetics efforts for risk prediction, describe methods used to construct and evaluate genetic-based predictive models, and discuss applications. PMID:24917882

E-Area Vault Concrete Material Property And Vault Durability/Degradation Projection Recommendations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phifer, M. A.

2014-03-11

Subsequent to the 2008 E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) Performance Assessment (PA) (WSRC 2008), two additional E-Area vault concrete property testing programs have been conducted (Dixon and Phifer 2010 and SIMCO 2011a) and two additional E-Area vault concrete durability modeling projections have been made (Langton 2009 and SIMCO 2012). All the information/data from these reports has been evaluated and consolidated herein by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) at the request of Solid Waste Management (SWM) to produce E-Area vault concrete hydraulic and physical property data and vault durability/degradation projection recommendations that are adequately justified for use within associated Specialmore » Analyses (SAs) and future PA updates. The Low Activity Waste (LAW) and Intermediate Level (IL) Vaults structural degradation predictions produced by Carey 2006 and Peregoy 2006, respectively, which were used as the basis for the 2008 ELLWF PA, remain valid based upon the results of the E-Area vault concrete durability simulations reported by Langton 2009 and those reported by SIMCO 2012. Therefore revised structural degradation predictions are not required so long as the mean thickness of the closure cap overlying the vaults is no greater than that assumed within Carey 2006 and Peregoy 2006. For the LAW Vault structural degradation prediction (Carey 2006), the mean thickness of the overlying closure cap was taken as nine feet. For the IL Vault structural degradation prediction (Peregoy 2006), the mean thickness of the overlying closure cap was taken as eight feet. The mean closure cap thicknesses as described here for both E-Area Vaults will be included as a key input and assumption (I&A) in the next revision to the closure plan for the ELLWF (Phifer et al. 2009). In addition, it has been identified as new input to the PA model to be assessed in the ongoing update to the new PA Information UDQE (Flach 2013). Once the UDQE is approved, the SWM Key I&A database will be updated with this new information.« less

Prognostic Importance of Sex-Specific Cardiac Troponin T 99(th) Percentiles in Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome.

PubMed

Eggers, Kai M; Jernberg, Tomas; Lindahl, Bertil

2016-08-01

Cardiac troponin levels differ between the sexes, with higher values commonly seen in men. The use of sex-specific troponin thresholds is, thus, subject of an ongoing debate. We assessed whether sex-specific cardiac troponin T (cTnT) 99(th) percentiles would improve risk prediction in patients admitted to Swedish coronary care units due to suspected acute coronary syndrome. In this retrospective register-based study (48,250 patients), we investigated the prediction of all-cause mortality and the composite of cardiovascular death or nonfatal myocardial infarction within 1 year using the single 99(th) cTnT percentile (>14 ng/L) or sex-specific cTnT 99(th) percentiles (>16/9 ng/L). A total of 1078 men (3.0%) with cTnT 15-16 ng/L and 1854 women (8.4%) with cTnT 10-14 ng/L would have been reclassified regarding their cTnT status by the means of sex-specific 99(th) percentiles. The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and crude event rates increased across higher cTnT strata in both men and women. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models, however, did not demonstrate better risk prediction by sex-specific 99(th) percentiles. Assessing cTnT as a continuous variable demonstrated an increase in multivariable-adjusted risk starting at levels around 10-12 ng/L in both men and women. We found no evidence supporting the use of sex-specific cTnT 99(th) percentiles in men and women admitted because of suspected acute coronary syndrome. This likely depends on sex-specific differences in disease mechanisms associated with small cTnT elevations. From a pragmatic perspective, a single cTnT cutoff slightly below 14 ng/L seems to be preferable as a threshold for medical decision-making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New Paradigm for Translational Modeling to Predict Long‐term Tuberculosis Treatment Response

PubMed Central

Bartelink, IH; Zhang, N; Keizer, RJ; Strydom, N; Converse, PJ; Dooley, KE; Nuermberger, EL

2017-01-01

Abstract Disappointing results of recent tuberculosis chemotherapy trials suggest that knowledge gained from preclinical investigations was not utilized to maximal effect. A mouse‐to‐human translational pharmacokinetics (PKs) – pharmacodynamics (PDs) model built on a rich mouse database may improve clinical trial outcome predictions. The model included Mycobacterium tuberculosis growth function in mice, adaptive immune response effect on bacterial growth, relationships among moxifloxacin, rifapentine, and rifampin concentrations accelerating bacterial death, clinical PK data, species‐specific protein binding, drug‐drug interactions, and patient‐specific pathology. Simulations of recent trials testing 4‐month regimens predicted 65% (95% confidence interval [CI], 55–74) relapse‐free patients vs. 80% observed in the REMox‐TB trial, and 79% (95% CI, 72–87) vs. 82% observed in the Rifaquin trial. Simulation of 6‐month regimens predicted 97% (95% CI, 93–99) vs. 92% and 95% observed in 2RHZE/4RH control arms, and 100% predicted and observed in the 35 mg/kg rifampin arm of PanACEA MAMS. These results suggest that the model can inform regimen optimization and predict outcomes of ongoing trials. PMID:28561946

Validation Theory and Research for a Population-Level Measure of Children's Development, Wellbeing, and School Readiness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guhn, Martin; Zumbo, Bruno D.; Janus, Magdalena; Hertzman, Clyde

2011-01-01

This paper delineates general validity and research questions that are underlying an ongoing program of research pertaining to the Early Development Instrument (EDI, Janus and Offord 2007), a population-level measure, on which teachers rate kindergarten children's developmental outcomes in the social, emotional, physical, cognitive, and…

76 FR 59835 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Partial 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List 404...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-27

... the Florida cave crayfish twice in its list of 404 species, once at the species level, Procambarus... population levels, and current and projected trends; and (e) Past and ongoing conservation measures for the... Florida rainbow snake (Farancia erytrogramma seminola), Sarah's hydroptila caddisfly (Hydroptila sarahae...

Reading, Writing, and Thinking like a Scientist

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cervetti, Gina; Pearson, P.

2012-01-01

In this commentary, the authors bring insights from their work on science-literacy integration at the elementary level to bear on the ongoing conversation about disciplinary literacy at the middle and secondary levels. In particular, the authors discuss what they have learned about inquiry, disciplinary reading strategies, and the role of text in…

Duration of blastulation may be associated with ongoing pregnancy rate in single euploid blastocyst transfer cycles.

PubMed

Mumusoglu, Sezcan; Ozbek, Irem Y; Sokmensuer, Lale K; Polat, Mehtap; Bozdag, Gurkan; Papanikolaou, Evangelos; Yarali, Hakan

2017-12-01

Not all euploid embryos implant, necessitating additional tools to select viable blastocysts in preimplantation genetic screening cycles. In this retrospective cohort study, 129 consecutive patients who underwent 129 single euploid blastocyst transfers in cryopreserved embryo transfer cycles were included. All embryos were individually cultured in a time-lapse incubator from intracytoplasmic sperm injection up to trophoectoderm biopsy. Twenty-three time-lapse morphokinetic variables were tested among patients with (n = 68) or without (n = 61) ongoing pregnancy. All 23 time-lapse morphokinetic variables, apart from duration of blastulation (tB-tSB), were comparable between patients with or without ongoing pregnancy. Duration of blastulation was significantly shorter in patients with ongoing pregnancy (8.1 ± 3.2 versus 9.5 ± 3.4 h; P = 0.014); shorter duration of blastulation remained an independent predictor for ongoing pregnancy, when tested by logistic regression analysis (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.93). One important limitation of this study, and a reason for caution, is the use of multiple comparisons, which can lead to differences at the 0.05 level simply by chance or random variation. Nonetheless, the study suggests that when more than one euploid blastocyst is available, priority might be given to those with a shorter duration of blastulation. Copyright © 2017 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Biophysical Models to Understand the Effect of tDCS on Neurorehabilitation: Searching for Optimal Covariates to Enhance Poststroke Recovery

PubMed Central

Malerba, Paola; Straudi, Sofia; Fregni, Felipe; Bazhenov, Maxim; Basaglia, Nino

2017-01-01

Stroke is a leading cause of worldwide disability, and up to 75% of survivors suffer from some degree of arm paresis. Recently, rehabilitation of stroke patients has focused on recovering motor skills by taking advantage of use-dependent neuroplasticity, where high-repetition of goal-oriented movement is at times combined with non-invasive brain stimulation, such as transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS). Merging the two approaches is thought to provide outlasting clinical gains, by enhancing synaptic plasticity and motor relearning in the motor cortex primary area. However, this general approach has shown mixed results across the stroke population. In particular, stroke location has been found to correlate with the likelihood of success, which suggests that different patients might require different protocols. Understanding how motor rehabilitation and stimulation interact with ongoing neural dynamics is crucial to optimize rehabilitation strategies, but it requires theoretical and computational models to consider the multiple levels at which this complex phenomenon operate. In this work, we argue that biophysical models of cortical dynamics are uniquely suited to address this problem. Specifically, biophysical models can predict treatment efficacy by introducing explicit variables and dynamics for damaged connections, changes in neural excitability, neurotransmitters, neuromodulators, plasticity mechanisms, and repetitive movement, which together can represent brain state, effect of incoming stimulus, and movement-induced activity. In this work, we hypothesize that effects of tDCS depend on ongoing neural activity and that tDCS effects on plasticity may be also related to enhancing inhibitory processes. We propose a model design for each step of this complex system, and highlight strengths and limitations of the different modeling choices within our approach. Our theoretical framework proposes a change in paradigm, where biophysical models can contribute to the future design of novel protocols, in which combined tDCS and motor rehabilitation strategies are tailored to the ongoing dynamics that they interact with, by considering the known biophysical factors recruited by such protocols and their interaction. PMID:28280482

Composite Characterization Using Ultrasonic Wavefield Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leckey, Cara A. C.; Juarez, Peter D.; Seebo, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

The large-scale use of composite components in aerospace applications is expected to continue due to the benefits of composite materials, such as reduced weight, increased strength, and tailorability. NASA's Advanced Composites Project (ACP) has the goals of reducing the timeline for certification of composite materials and enabling the expanded use of advanced composite materials. A key technical challenge area for accomplishing these goals is the need for nondestructive evaluation and materials characterization techniques that are optimized for rapid inspection and detailed defect/damage characterization in composite materials. This presentation will discuss ongoing research investigating the use of ultrasonic wavefield techniques for the characterization of defects such as fiber waviness and delamination damage. Ongoing work includes the development of realistic ultrasonic simulation tools for use in predicting the inspectability of composites and optimizing inspection methodologies. Recent studies on detecting/characterizing delamination damage and fiber waviness via wavefield methods will be described.

Chronic and episodic stress predict physical symptom bother following breast cancer diagnosis.

PubMed

Harris, Lauren N; Bauer, Margaret R; Wiley, Joshua F; Hammen, Constance; Krull, Jennifer L; Crespi, Catherine M; Weihs, Karen L; Stanton, Annette L

2017-12-01

Breast cancer patients often experience adverse physical side effects of medical treatments. According to the biobehavioral model of cancer stress and disease, life stress during diagnosis and treatment may negatively influence the trajectory of women's physical health-related adjustment to breast cancer. This longitudinal study examined chronic and episodic stress as predictors of bothersome physical symptoms during the year after breast cancer diagnosis. Women diagnosed with breast cancer in the previous 4 months (N = 460) completed a life stress interview for contextual assessment of chronic and episodic stress severity at study entry and 9 months later. Physical symptom bother (e.g., pain, fatigue) was measured at study entry, every 6 weeks through 6 months, and at nine and 12 months. In multilevel structural equation modeling (MSEM) analyses, both chronic stress and episodic stress occurring shortly after diagnosis predicted greater physical symptom bother over the study period. Episodic stress reported to have occurred prior to diagnosis did not predict symptom bother in MSEM analyses, and the interaction between chronic and episodic stress on symptom bother was not significant. Results suggest that ongoing chronic stress and episodic stress occurring shortly after breast cancer diagnosis are important predictors of bothersome symptoms during and after cancer treatment. Screening for chronic stress and recent stressful life events in the months following diagnosis may help to identify breast cancer patients at risk for persistent and bothersome physical symptoms. Interventions to prevent or ameliorate treatment-related physical symptoms may confer added benefit by addressing ongoing non-cancer-related stress in women's lives.

Chronic and episodic stress predict physical symptom bother following breast cancer diagnosis

PubMed Central

Bauer, Margaret R.; Wiley, Joshua F.; Hammen, Constance; Krull, Jennifer L.; Crespi, Catherine M.; Weihs, Karen L.; Stanton, Annette L.

2017-01-01

Breast cancer patients often experience adverse physical side effects of medical treatments. According to the biobehavioral model of cancer stress and disease, life stress during diagnosis and treatment may negatively influence the trajectory of women’s physical health-related adjustment to breast cancer. This longitudinal study examined chronic and episodic stress as predictors of bothersome physical symptoms during the year after breast cancer diagnosis. Women diagnosed with breast cancer in the previous 4 months (N = 460) completed a life stress interview for contextual assessment of chronic and episodic stress severity at study entry and 9 months later. Physical symptom bother (e.g., pain, fatigue) was measured at study entry, every 6 weeks through 6 months, and at nine and 12 months. In multilevel structural equation modeling (MSEM) analyses, both chronic stress and episodic stress occurring shortly after diagnosis predicted greater physical symptom bother over the study period. Episodic stress reported to have occurred prior to diagnosis did not predict symptom bother in MSEM analyses, and the interaction between chronic and episodic stress on symptom bother was not significant. Results suggest that ongoing chronic stress and episodic stress occurring shortly after breast cancer diagnosis are important predictors of bothersome symptoms during and after cancer treatment. Screening for chronic stress and recent stressful life events in the months following diagnosis may help to identify breast cancer patients at risk for persistent and bothersome physical symptoms. Interventions to prevent or ameliorate treatment-related physical symptoms may confer added benefit by addressing ongoing non-cancer-related stress in women’s lives. PMID:28528393

Public Health and Economic Consequences of Vaccine Hesitancy for Measles in the United States.

PubMed

Lo, Nathan C; Hotez, Peter J

2017-09-01

Routine childhood vaccination is declining in some regions of the United States due to vaccine hesitancy, which risks the resurgence of many infectious diseases with public health and economic consequences. There are ongoing policy debates on the state and national level, including legislation around nonmedical (personal-belief) exemptions for childhood vaccination and possibly a special government commission on vaccine safety, which may affect vaccine coverage. To estimate the number of measles cases in US children and the associated economic costs under scenarios of different levels of vaccine hesitancy, using the case example of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination and measles. Publicly available data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to simulate county-level MMR vaccination coverage in children (age 2-11 years) in the United States. A stochastic mathematical model was adapted for infectious disease transmission that estimated a distribution for outbreak size as it relates to vaccine coverage. Economic costs per measles case were obtained from the literature. The predicted effects of increasing the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy as well as the removal of nonmedical exemptions were estimated. The model was calibrated to annual measles cases in US children over recent years, and the model prediction was validated using an independent data set from England and Wales. Annual measles cases in the United States and the associated public sector costs. A 5% decline in MMR vaccine coverage in the United States would result in an estimated 3-fold increase in measles cases for children aged 2 to 11 years nationally every year, with an additional $2.1 million in public sector costs. The numbers would be substantially higher if unvaccinated infants, adolescents, and adult populations were also considered. There was variation around these estimates due to the stochastic elements of measles importation and sensitivity of some model inputs, although the trend was robust. This analysis predicts that even minor reductions in childhood vaccination, driven by vaccine hesitancy (nonmedical and personal belief exemptions), will have substantial public health and economic consequences. The results support an urgent need to address vaccine hesitancy in policy dialogues at the state and national level, with consideration of removing personal belief exemptions of childhood vaccination.

Poster - 47: A parametrized prediction model of rectal toxicity in focal SBRT of low risk prostate cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, Todd; Bauman, Glenn

There has been a recent trend towards watchful waiting in place of intervention for early stage prostate cancer (CaP). However, this approach can allow for disease progression, and subsequent whole-gland therapies such as prostatectomy and whole gland irradiation can result in functional deficits or rectal toxicities or both. A controversial alternative approach for this patient cohort is the use of focal therapy, where the treatment is focussed on an identified dominant index lesion (DIL). This work aims to investigate the treatment parameters for focal SBRT of the prostate under which clinically acceptable rectal NTCP levels can be achieved. For eachmore » of 25 low risk CaP patients, a hypothetical 2 cc DIL was modeled in the right-posterior quadrant of the prostate, and was used to build a PTV as the target for SBRT simulation. An SBRT prescriptions of 41 Gy and 37 Gy in 5 fractions were chosen, corresponding to the boost levels used in previous CaP dose escalation studies. DVH data were exported and used to calculate rectal NTCP values based on the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model using the QUANTEC reccommended model parameters. Rectal NTCP dependence on DIL-to-rectum separation, dose level, and DIL volume were investigated. The final goal of this ongoing work is to create a map of the maximum allowable prescription dose for a given patient geometry that achieves a clinically acceptable rectal NTCP level.« less

Carpooling: status and potential

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kendall, D.C.

1975-06-01

Studies were conducted to analyze the status and potential of work-trip carpooling as a means of achieving more efficient use of the automobile. Current and estimated maximum potential levels of carpooling are presented together with analyses revealing characteristics of carpool trips, incentives, impacts of increased carpooling and issues related to carpool matching services. National survey results indicate the average auto occupancy for urban work-trip is 1.2 passengers per auto. This value, and average carpool occupancy of 2.5, have been relatively stable over the last five years. An increase in work-trip occupancy from 1.2 to 1.8 would require a 100% increasemore » in the number of carpoolers. A model was developed to predict the maximum potential level of carpooling in an urban area. Results from applying the model to the Boston region were extrapolated to estimate a maximum nationwide potential between 47 and 71% of peak period auto commuters. Maximum benefits of increased carpooling include up to 10% savings in auto fuel consumption. A technique was developed for estimating the number of participants required in a carpool matching service to achieve a chosen level of matching among respondents, providing insight into tradeoffs between employer and regional or centralized matching services. Issues recommended for future study include incentive policies and their impacts on other modes, and the evaluation of new and ongoing carpool matching services. (11 references) (GRA)« less

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belzer, D.B.

1997-02-01

To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studiesmore » of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.« less

78 FR 8345 - American Heart Month, 2013

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-06

... cardiovascular disease, there are also several controllable risk factors, including: blood cholesterol levels... ongoing fight against cardiovascular disease, the Congress, by Joint Resolution approved December 30, 1963... commitment to fighting cardiovascular disease. [[Page 8346

The longevity of lava dome eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolpert, Robert L.; Ogburn, Sarah E.; Calder, Eliza S.

2016-02-01

Understanding the duration of past, ongoing, and future volcanic eruptions is an important scientific goal and a key societal need. We present a new methodology for forecasting the duration of ongoing and future lava dome eruptions based on a database (DomeHaz) recently compiled by the authors. The database includes duration and composition for 177 such eruptions, with "eruption" defined as the period encompassing individual episodes of dome growth along with associated quiescent periods during which extrusion pauses but unrest continues. In a key finding, we show that probability distributions for dome eruption durations are both heavy tailed and composition dependent. We construct objective Bayesian statistical models featuring heavy-tailed Generalized Pareto distributions with composition-specific parameters to make forecasts about the durations of new and ongoing eruptions that depend on both eruption duration to date and composition. Our Bayesian predictive distributions reflect both uncertainty about model parameter values (epistemic uncertainty) and the natural variability of the geologic processes (aleatoric uncertainty). The results are illustrated by presenting likely trajectories for 14 dome-building eruptions ongoing in 2015. Full representation of the uncertainty is presented for two key eruptions, Soufriére Hills Volcano in Montserrat (10-139 years, median 35 years) and Sinabung, Indonesia (1-17 years, median 4 years). Uncertainties are high but, importantly, quantifiable. This work provides for the first time a quantitative and transferable method and rationale on which to base long-term planning decisions for lava dome-forming volcanoes, with wide potential use and transferability to forecasts of other types of eruptions and other adverse events across the geohazard spectrum.

Unexplained infertility: overall ongoing pregnancy rate and mode of conception.

PubMed

Brandes, M; Hamilton, C J C M; van der Steen, J O M; de Bruin, J P; Bots, R S G M; Nelen, W L D M; Kremer, J A M

2011-02-01

Unexplained infertility is one of the most common diagnoses in fertility care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcome of current fertility management in unexplained infertility. In an observational, longitudinal, multicentre cohort study, 437 couples were diagnosed with unexplained infertility and were available for analysis. They were treated according to their prognosis using standing national treatment protocols: (i) expectant management-IUI-IVF (main treatment route), (ii) IUI-IVF and (iii) directly IVF. Primary outcome measures were: ongoing pregnancy rate, patient flow over the strategies, numbers of protocol violation and drop out rates. A secondary outcome measure was the prediction of ongoing pregnancy and mode of conception. Of all couples 81.5% (356/437) achieved an ongoing pregnancy and 73.9% (263/356) of the pregnancies were conceived spontaneously. There were 408 couples (93.4%) in strategy-1, 21 (5.0%) in strategy-2 and 8 (1.8%) in strategy-3. In total, 33 (7.6%) couples entered the wrong strategy. There were 104 couples (23.8%) who discontinued fertility treatment prematurely: 26 on doctor's advice (with 4 still becoming pregnant) and 78 on their own initiative (with 33 still achieving a pregnancy). Predictors for overall pregnancy chance and mode of conception were duration of infertility, female age and obstetrical history. Overall success rate in couples with unexplained infertility is high. Most pregnancies are conceived spontaneously. We recommend that if the pregnancy prognosis is good, expectant management should be suggested. The prognosis criteria for treatment with IUI or IVF needs to be investigated in randomized controlled trials.

The Brøset violence checklist (BVC).

PubMed

Woods, Phil; Almvik, R

2002-01-01

The Brøset violence checklist (BVC) is a short-term violence prediction instrument assessing confusion, irritability, boisterousness, verbal threats, physical threats and attacks on objects as either present or absent. The aim of this paper is to describe the evolution and usefulness of the BVC. This paper reviews studies on the BVC and discusses implications for further research. Empirical research has shown that it has moderate sensitivity and high specificity with an adequate inter-rater reliability. The BVC is a useful instrument for predicting inpatient violence within the next 24-h period. The psychometric properties of the instrument are satisfactory. Results from ongoing studies will give important information on cultural differences, the validity of the BVC in less well staffed wards, the clinical use of the checklist and its ability to predict violence throughout all the hospital stay.

Testing the applicability of artificial intelligence techniques to the subject of erythemal ultraviolet solar radiation. Part two: an intelligent system based on multi-classifier technique.

PubMed

Elminir, Hamdy K; Own, Hala S; Azzam, Yosry A; Riad, A M

2008-03-28

The problem we address here describes the on-going research effort that takes place to shed light on the applicability of using artificial intelligence techniques to predict the local noon erythemal UV irradiance in the plain areas of Egypt. In light of this fact, we use the bootstrap aggregating (bagging) algorithm to improve the prediction accuracy reported by a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network. The results showed that, the overall prediction accuracy for the MLP network was only 80.9%. When bagging algorithm is used, the accuracy reached 94.8%; an improvement of about 13.9% was achieved. These improvements demonstrate the efficiency of the bagging procedure, and may be used as a promising tool at least for the plain areas of Egypt.

A model of metastable dynamics during ongoing and evoked cortical activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Camera, Giancarlo

The dynamics of simultaneously recorded spike trains in alert animals often evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for the genesis of such sequences, or their potential role in neural coding. In the gustatory cortex of alert rates, state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation, and thus form the basis of the so-called `ongoing activity'. This activity is characterized by a partial degree of coordination among neurons, sharp transitions among states, and multi-stability of single neurons' firing rates. A recurrent spiking network model with clustered topology can account for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the (network-generated) multi-stability. In the model, each network state results from the activation of specific neural clusters with potentiated intra-cluster connections. A mean field solution of the model shows a large number of stable states, each characterized by a subset of simultaneously active clusters. The firing rate in each cluster during ongoing activity depends on the number of active clusters, so that the same neuron can have different firing rates depending on the state of the network. Because of dense intra-cluster connectivity and recurrent inhibition, in finite networks the stable states lose stability due to finite size effects. Simulations of the dynamics show that the model ensemble activity continuously hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. Moreover, when probed with external stimuli, the model correctly predicts the quenching of single neuron multi-stability into bi-stability, the reduction of dimensionality of the population activity, the reduction of trial-to-trial variability, and a potential role for metastable states in the anticipation of expected events. Altogether, these results provide a unified mechanistic model of ongoing and evoked cortical dynamics. NSF IIS-1161852, NIDCD K25-DC013557, NIDCD R01-DC010389.

Middle Range Theory: A Perspective on Development and Use.

PubMed

Liehr, Patricia; Smith, Mary Jane

This replication and critique addresses ongoing development and use of middle range theory since considering this body of nursing knowledge 18 years ago. Middle range theory is appreciated as essential to the structure of nursing knowledge. Nine middle range theories that demonstrate ongoing use by the theory authors are analyzed using the criteria of theory name, theory generation, disciplinary perspective, theory model, practice use and research use. Critique conclusions indicate the importance of staying with the theory over time, naming and development consistent with the disciplinary perspective, movement to an empirical level, and bringing middle range theory to the interdisciplinary table.

Environmental and Socio-Demographic Determinants of Dengue Fever in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tipre, Meghan; Luvall, Jeffrey; Haque, Akhlaque; McClure, Leslie; Zaitchik, Ben; Sathiakumar, Nalini

2014-01-01

Dengue fever has increased exponentially in Sri Lanka, from 24.4 cases per 100,000 in 2003 to 165.3 per 100,000 population in 2013. Although early warning systems using predictor models have been previously developed in other settings, it is important to develop such models in each local setting. Further, the ability of these models to be applicable at smaller geographic units will enhance current vector control and disease surveillance measures. The aim of this paper was to identify environmental and socio-economic status (SES) risk factors that may predict dengue fever at the Gram Niladhari Divisions (GND) level (smallest administrative unit) in Colombo city, Sri Lanka. These factors included landcover classes, amount of vegetation, population density, water access and neighborhood SES as determined by roof type. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to develop the prediction model. A total 55 GND units covering an area of 37 sq km were investigated. We found that GND units with decreased vegetation, higher built-up area, higher population density and poor access to tap-water supply were associated with high risk of dengue; the pertinent GND units were concentrated in the center of the city. This is the first study in Sri Lanka to include both environmental and socio-demographic factors in prediction models for dengue fever. The methodology may be useful in enhancing ongoing dengue fever control measures in the country, and to be extended to other countries in the region that have an increasing incidence of dengue fever.

Why Are There Developmental Stages in Language Learning? A Developmental Robotics Model of Language Development.

PubMed

Morse, Anthony F; Cangelosi, Angelo

2017-02-01

Most theories of learning would predict a gradual acquisition and refinement of skills as learning progresses, and while some highlight exponential growth, this fails to explain why natural cognitive development typically progresses in stages. Models that do span multiple developmental stages typically have parameters to "switch" between stages. We argue that by taking an embodied view, the interaction between learning mechanisms, the resulting behavior of the agent, and the opportunities for learning that the environment provides can account for the stage-wise development of cognitive abilities. We summarize work relevant to this hypothesis and suggest two simple mechanisms that account for some developmental transitions: neural readiness focuses on changes in the neural substrate resulting from ongoing learning, and perceptual readiness focuses on the perceptual requirements for learning new tasks. Previous work has demonstrated these mechanisms in replications of a wide variety of infant language experiments, spanning multiple developmental stages. Here we piece this work together as a single model of ongoing learning with no parameter changes at all. The model, an instance of the Epigenetic Robotics Architecture (Morse et al 2010) embodied on the iCub humanoid robot, exhibits ongoing multi-stage development while learning pre-linguistic and then basic language skills. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Westerlund 1 is a Galactic Treasure Chest: The Wolf-Rayet Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosslowe, C. K.; Crowther, P. A.

2015-01-01

The Westerlund 1 Galactic cluster hosts an eclectic mix of coeval massive stars. At a modest distance of 4-5 kpc, it offers a unique opportunity to study the resolved stellar content of a young (~5 Myr) high mass (5.104 M ⊙) star cluster. With the aim of testing single-star evolutionary predictions, and revealing any signatures of binary evolution, we discuss on-going analyses of NTT/SOFI near-IR spectroscopy of Wolf-Rayet stars in Westerlund 1. We find that late WN stars are H-poor compared to their counterparts in the Milky Way field, and nearly all are less luminous than predicted by single-star Geneva isochrones at the age of Westerlund 1.

Evolution of ESA's SSA Conjunction Prediction Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, D.; Sancho, A. Tirado, J.; Agueda, A.; Martin, L.; Luque, F.; Fletcher, E.; Navarro, V.

2013-08-01

This paper presents the recent evolution of ESA's SSA Conjunction Prediction Service (CPS) as a result of an on-going activity in the Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) Segment of ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme. The CPS is one of a number of precursor services being developed as part of the SST segment. It has been implemented as a service to provide external users with web-based access to conjunction information and designed with a service-oriented architecture. The paper encompasses the following topics: service functionality enhancements, integration with a live objects catalogue, all vs. all analyses supporting an operational concept based on low and high fidelity screenings, and finally conjunction detection and probability algorithms.

Rift Valley Fever Prediction and Risk Mapping: 2014-2015 Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Assaf

2015-01-01

Extremes in either direction (+-) of precipitation temperature have significant implications for disease vectors and pathogen emergence and spread Magnitude of ENSO influence on precipitation temperature cannot be currently predicted rely on average history and patterns. Timing of event and emergence disease can be exploited (GAP) in to undertake vector control and preparedness measures. Currently - no risk for ecologically-coupled RVFV activity however we need to be vigilant during the coming fall season due the ongoing buildup of energy in the central Pacific Ocean. Potential for the dual-use of the RVF Monitor system for other VBDs Need to invest in early ground surveillance and the use of rapid field diagnostic capabilities for vector identification and virus isolation.

Final Report of the Mid-Atlantic Marine Wildlife Surveys, Modeling, and Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saracino-Brown, Jocelyn; Smith, Courtney; Gilman, Patrick

The Wind Program hosted a two-day workshop on July 24-25, 2012 with scientists and regulators engaged in marine ecological survey, modeling, and database efforts pertaining to the waters of the Mid-Atlantic region. The workshop was planned by Federal agency, academic, and private partners to promote collaboration between ongoing offshore ecological survey efforts, and to promote the collaborative development of complementary predictive models and compatible databases. The meeting primarily focused on efforts to establish and predict marine mammal, seabird, and sea turtle abundance, density, and distributions extending from the shoreline to the edge of the Exclusive Economic Zone between Nantucket Sound,more » Massachusetts and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwantes, Jon M.

Kelly Fitzgerald Kelly Fitzgerald assisted with laboratory testing for an ongoing R&D project known as Electrochemically Modulated Separation (EMS) for on-line rapid preseparations of actinides prior to mass spectrometry analysis. Ryne Burgess Ryne Burgess used SCALE 5.1 ORIGEN-ARP to predict isotope libraries for the Units 1, 2 and 3 reactors and Unit 4 spent fuel pool for comparing against measurements of environmental sampled collected at the site in order to identify the source terms of the accident. Comparison of the cesium 134/137 and cesium 136/137 ratios observed in environmental samples and ORIGEN-ARP predictions indicated that the Unit 4 Spent Fuelmore » Pool did not significantly contribute to radionuclide release during the Fukushima Daiichi accident.« less

Gravitational lensing of quasars as seen by the Hubble Space Telescope Snapshot Survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maoz, D.; Bahcall, J. N.; Doxsey, R.; Schneider, D. P.; Bahcall, N. A.; Lahav, O.; Yanny, B.

1992-01-01

Results from the ongoing HST Snapshot Survey are presented, with emphasis on 152 high-luminosity, z greater than 1 quasars. One quasar among those observed, 1208 + 1011, is a candidate lens system with subarcsecond image separation. Six other quasars have point sources within 6 arcsec. Ground-based observations of five of these cases show that the companion point sources are foreground Galactic stars. The predicted lensing frequency of the sample is calculated for a variety of cosmological models. The effect of uncertainties in some of the observational parameters upon the predictions is discussed. No correlation of the drift rate with time, right ascension, declination, or point error is found.

Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorringe, Tim

The Fermilab muon g-2 experiment will measure the muon anomalous magnetic momentmore » $$a_{\\mu}$$ to 140 ppb – a four-fold improvement over the earlier Brookhaven experiment. The measurement of $$a_{\\mu}$$ is well known as a unique test of the standard model with broad sensitivity to new interactions, particles and phenomena. The goal of 140 ppb is commensurate with ongoing improvements in the SM prediction of the anomalous moment and addresses the longstanding 3.5$$\\sigma$$ discrepancy between the BNL result and the SM prediction. In this article I discuss the physics motivation and experimental technique for measuring $$a_{\\mu}$$, and the current status and the future work for the project.« less

Geographic Model and Biomarker-Derived Measures of Pesticide Exposure and Parkinson’s Disease

PubMed Central

RITZ, BEATE; COSTELLO, SADIE

2013-01-01

For more than two decades, reports have suggested that pesticides and herbicides may be an etiologic factor in idiopathic Parkinson’s disease (PD). To date, no clear associations with any specific pesticide have been demonstrated from epidemiological studies perhaps, in part, because methods of reliably estimating exposures are lacking. We tested the validity of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based exposure assessment model that estimates potential environmental exposures at residences from pesticide applications to agricultural crops based on California Pesticide Use Reports (PUR). Using lipid-adjusted dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) serum levels as the “gold standard” for pesticide exposure, we conducted a validation study in a sample taken from an ongoing, population-based case–control study of PD in Central California. Residential, occupational, and other risk factor data were collected for 22 cases and 24 controls from Kern county, California. Environmental GIS–PUR-based organochlorine (OC) estimates were derived for each subject and compared to lipid-adjusted DDE serum levels. Relying on a linear regression model, we predicted log-transformed lipid-adjusted DDE serum levels. GIS–PUR-derived OC measure, body mass index, age, gender, mixing and loading pesticides by hand, and using pesticides in the home, together explained 47% of the DDE serum level variance (adjusted r2 = 0.47). The specificity of using our environmental GIS–PUR-derived OC measures to identify those with high-serum DDE levels was reasonably good (87%). Our environmental GIS–PUR-based approach appears to provide a valid model for assessing residential exposures to agricultural pesticides. PMID:17119217

Comparative analysis of gingival crevicular fluid β-glucuronidase levels in health, chronic gingivitis and chronic periodontitis.

PubMed

Sanara, P P; Shereef, Mohammed; Hegde, Shashikanth; Rajesh, K S; Arun Kumar, M S; Mohamed, Shabeer

2015-08-01

Current methods available for periodontal disease diagnosis are seriously deficient in terms of accuracy, in the ability to predict ongoing or future disease activity and indeed in determining whether previously diseased sites are in an arrested phase or still active. One area that is receiving a great deal of attention is the biochemical investigation of gingival crevicular fluid (GCF). β-glucuronidase (βG) is one of the enzymes found in GCF that is involved in degradation of the ground substance and fibrillar components of host connective tissue. GCF βG activity might be a good indicator or predictor of periodontal disease activity. This study was conducted to estimate and compare the GCF βG levels in patients with healthy periodontium, chronic gingivitis, and chronic periodontitis. Subjects were classified into three groups of 20 patients each; healthy individuals, chronic gingivitis, and chronic periodontitis. After recording the plaque index, gingival index and probing pocket depth, 1 μL GCF was collected by placing a calibrated microcapillary pipette extracrevicularly and transferred to sterile plastic vials containing 350 μL of normal saline with 1% bovine serum albumin. Analysis of βG was done by spectrophotometry. βG levels in GCF were significantly higher in chronic periodontitis group (mean value - 2.04743), followed by chronic gingivitis group (mean - 1.11510) and healthy group (0.53643). Increased βG levels were observed in patients with increased periodontal destruction, hence GCF βG levels can be used as biochemical marker for periodontal disease activity.

Annotating MYC Status in Treatment-Resistant Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer With Gallium-68 Citrate PET

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

ongoing and interim analysis is planned within the next 6 months. Planned analyses include: 1) correlation of gallium citrate uptake on PET with MYC...utility of Gallium citrate PET as a pharmacodynamic and predictive biomarker of MYC pathway inhibition in mCRPC. Correlative pre- and post-treatment...completed Milestone Achieved: Last patient completes study follow up scan 36 Not yet completed Assess correlation between SUVmax on gallium

The Physics of g-2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lincoln, Don

At any time in history, a few scientific measurements disagreed with the best theoretical predictions of the time. Currently, one such discrepancy involves the measurement of the strength of the magnetic field of a subatomic particle called a muon. In this video, Fermilab’s Dr. Don Lincoln explains this mystery and sketches ongoing efforts to determine if this disagreement signifies a discovery. If it does, this measurement will mean that we will have to rewrite the textbooks.

Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke-FCAMMS: a National Paradigm for Wildland Fire and Smoke Management

Treesearch

A. R. Riebau; D. G. Fox

2003-01-01

Fires can be catastrophic, but only when the weather permits. Predicting the weather more than a few hours into the future with accuracy, precision and reliability is an on-going challenge to researchers. Accurate and precise forecasting for more than a few hours into the future has been virtually unrealizable until the latter half of the 20th Century. In the modern...

Toward computational crime prediction. Comment on "Statistical physics of crime: A review" by M.R. D'Orsogna and M. Perc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrara, Emilio

2015-03-01

Containing the spreading of crime in modern society in an ongoing battle: our understanding of the dynamics underlying criminal events and the motifs behind individuals therein involved is crucial to design cost-effective prevention policies and intervention strategies. During recent years we witnessed various research fields joining forces, sharing models and methods, toward modeling and quantitatively characterizing crime and criminal behavior.

Using Wave-Current Observations to Predict Bottom Sediment Processes on Muddy Beaches

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

Hill and Foda , 1999; Chan and Liu, 2009; Holland et al., 2009; and others). Many theoretical models of wave-mud interaction have been proposed...transformation (see Section Figure 5) emerges from the analysis Sheremet et al., 2005; Jaramillo et al., 2008; Robillard, 2009; ?; ?. Under energetic waves, the...et al., 2010). The ongoing work has three directions of research: Data analysis : reconstruct the sequence of bed states in storms captured in the

Solar thermal conversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selcuk, M. K.

1978-01-01

A brief review of the fundamentals of the conversion of solar energy into mechanical work (or electricity via generators) is given. Both past and present work on several conversion concepts are discussed. Solar collectors, storage systems, energy transport, and various types of engines are examined. Ongoing work on novel concepts of collectors, energy storage and thermal energy conversion are outlined and projections for the future are described. Energy costs for various options are predicted and margins and limitations are discussed.

Transforming a Curriculum to Progress the Associate Degree Nurse to Advanced Practice.

PubMed

Fogel, Sarah; Hande, Karen; Kennedy, Betsy

2015-01-01

The educational preparation of associate degree nurses to the master's level requires attainment of baccalaureate-level content. This preparation involves specialized curriculum and varied teaching techniques. Using adult learning theory and aspects of competency-based learning, students and faculty may participate in a gratifying and successful educational experience. The revision of an ongoing associate degree to baccalaureate-level curriculum is presented in this article.

PFCA Article Testing

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has established an ongoing effort to quantify possible changes in levels of perfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) in articles of commerce (AOCs). Temporal trends in the concentrations of selected PFCs, including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFO...

Application of frequency-domain linearized Euler solutions to the prediction of aft fan tones and comparison with experimental measurements on model scale turbofan exhaust nozzles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özyörük, Y.; Tester, B. J.

2011-08-01

Although it is widely accepted that aircraft noise needs to be further reduced, there is an equally important, on-going requirement to accurately predict the strengths of all the different aircraft noise sources, not only to ensure that a new aircraft is certifiable and can meet the ever more stringent local airport noise rules but also to prioritize and apply appropriate noise source reduction technologies at the design stage. As the bypass ratio of aircraft engines is increased - in order to reduce fuel consumption, emissions and jet mixing noise - the fan noise that radiates from the bypass exhaust nozzle is becoming one of the loudest engine sources, despite the large areas of acoustically absorptive treatment in the bypass duct. This paper addresses this 'aft fan' noise source, in particular the prediction of the propagation of fan noise through the bypass exhaust nozzle/jet exhaust flow and radiation out to the far-field observer. The proposed prediction method is equally applicable to fan tone and fan broadband noise (and also turbine and core noise) but here the method is validated with measured test data using simulated fan tones. The measured data had been previously acquired on two model scale turbofan engine exhausts with bypass and heated core flows typical of those found in a modern high bypass engine, but under static conditions (i.e. no flight simulation). The prediction method is based on frequency-domain solutions of the linearized Euler equations in conjunction with perfectly matched layer equations at the inlet and far-field boundaries using high-order finite differences. The discrete system of equations is inverted by the parallel sparse solver MUMPS. Far-field predictions are carried out by integrating Kirchhoff's formula in frequency domain. In addition to the acoustic modes excited and radiated, some non-acoustic waves within the cold stream-ambient shear layer are also captured by the computations at some flow and excitation frequencies. By extracting phase speed information from the near-field pressure solution, these non-acoustic waves are shown to be convective Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves. Strouhal numbers computed along the shear layer, based on the local momentum thickness also confirm this in accordance with Michalke's instability criterion for incompressible round jets with a similar shear layer profile. Comparisons of the computed far-field results with the measured acoustic data reveal that, in general, the solver predicts the peak sound levels well when the farfield is dominated by the in-duct target mode (the target mode being the one specified to the in-duct mode generator). Calculations also show that the agreement can be considerably improved when the non-target modes are also included, despite their low in-duct levels. This is due to the fact that each duct mode has its own distinct directionality and a non-target low level mode may become dominant at angles where the higher-level target mode is directionally weak. The overall agreement between the computations and experiment strongly suggests that, at least for the range of mean flows and acoustic conditions considered, the physical aeroacoustic radiation processes are fully captured through the frequency-domain solutions to the linearized Euler equations and hence this could form the basis of a reliable aircraft noise prediction method.

Citizenship Education Policy at the School District Level. Issue Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Jeffery J.

2004-01-01

At a time when the ongoing effort to reform public education in the United States is strongly influenced by requirements of the federal No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB), policymakers and education leaders at all levels are focused on improving student achievement in math and reading. Emphasis on these two areas, however, is generating concern among…

Reaffirming Diversity in Higher Education through Faculty Hiring: A Leadership Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Dianbing; Yang, Xinxiao

2013-01-01

Ongoing globalization and immigration bring diversity and rich cultural elements to American organizations at all levels. An educational environment with faculty and leaders from people of colors will set a good example for all students, especially for students of color who are eager to explore ideas and arguments at a thoughtful level to rethink…

Cultivating an Aesthetic Sensibility and Activism: Everyday Aesthetics and Environmental Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurren, Wanda

2017-01-01

The place of activism in environmental education is an ongoing conversation among educators. In this article I highlight an area that has received minimal attention within that conversation: aesthetics and activism. While activism can be enacted at the personal and public levels, I focus on the personal level of activism as I discuss links between…

The Vision Is Set, Now Help Chronicle the Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodin, Terry; Feser, Jason; Herrera, Jose

2012-01-01

The Vision and Change effort to explore and implement needed changes in undergraduate biology education has been ongoing since 2006. It is now time to take stock of changes that have occurred at the faculty and single-course levels, and to consider how to accomplish the larger-scale changes needed at departmental and institutional levels. This…

Engineering Undergraduates' Views of A-Level Mathematics and Further Mathematics as Preparation for Their Degree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darlington, Ellie; Bowyer, Jessica

2017-01-01

An ongoing reform programme of the post-16 Advanced "A"-level qualifications in England and Wales means that pre-university mathematics content and assessment will change from 2017. Undergraduate engineering is a subject that relies heavily on mathematics, and applicants to engineering degree programmes in the UK are required to have…

Use of a novel saline/bipolar radiofrequency energy instrument as an adjunct for arresting ongoing solid organ surface and laceration bleeding in critically injured patients.

PubMed

Ball, Chad G; Campbell, Andre; Grondin, Sean C; Dixon, Elijah; DuBose, Joseph; McBeth, Paul B; Lall, Rohan

2016-09-01

Solid organ (liver, spleen and kidney) haemorrhage is often life threatening and can be difficult to stop in critically ill patients. Traditional techniques for arresting this ongoing bleeding include coagulation by high voltage cautery (Bovie), topical haemostatic application, and the delivery of ignited argon gas. The goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a new energy device for arresting persistent solid organ haemorrhage. A novel instrument utilizing bipolar radiofrequency (RF) energy which acts to ignite/boil dripping saline from a simple hand piece was employed to arrest ongoing bleeding from solid organ injuries at 2 high volume, level 1 trauma centres. This instrument is extrapolated from experience within elective hepatic resections. Standard statistics were employed (p<0.05=significant). From January 2013 to January 2015, 36 severely injured patients (mean injury severity score=31; blunt mechanisms=32/36 (89%)) underwent use of this new saline/RF energy instrument to arrest ongoing haemorrhage from the liver (29), spleen (5) and kidney (2). Of these patients, 25 received instrument use during an initial laparotomy, while 11 patients underwent use following removal of sponges during a return laparotomy after an initial damage control procedure. Success in arresting ongoing haemorrhage was 97% (35/36) in these highly selected cases. The surgeons reported an 'ease of use' score of 4.9 out of 5. No postoperative complications (including delayed haemorrhage) were noted as a direct result of the energy instrument. This simple saline/RF energy instrument has the potential to arrest ongoing solid organ surface/capsular bleeding, as well as moderate haemorrhage associated with deep lacerations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive Blood Chemistry Parameters for Pansteatitis-Affected Mozambique Tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus)

PubMed Central

Chapman, Robert W.; Somerville, Stephen E.; Guillette, Matthew P.; Botha, Hannes; Hoffman, Andre; Luus-Powell, Wilmien J.; Smit, Willem J.; Lebepe, Jeffrey; Myburgh, Jan; Govender, Danny; Tucker, Jonathan; Boggs, Ashley S. P.

2016-01-01

One of the largest river systems in South Africa, the Olifants River, has experienced significant changes in water quality due to anthropogenic activities. Since 2005, there have been various “outbreaks” of the inflammatory disease pansteatitis in several vertebrate species. Large-scale pansteatitis-related mortality events have decimated the crocodile population at Lake Loskop and decreased the population at Kruger National Park. Most pansteatitis-related diagnoses within the region are conducted post-mortem by either gross pathology or histology. The application of a non-lethal approach to assess the prevalence and pervasiveness of pansteatitis in the Olifants River region would be of great importance for the development of a management plan for this disease. In this study, several plasma-based biomarkers accurately classified pansteatitis in Mozambique tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) collected from Lake Loskop using a commercially available benchtop blood chemistry analyzer combined with data interpretation via artificial neural network analysis. According to the model, four blood chemistry parameters (calcium, sodium, total protein and albumin), in combination with total length, diagnose pansteatitis to a predictive accuracy of 92 percent. In addition, several morphometric traits (total length, age, weight) were also associated with pansteatitis. On-going research will focus on further evaluating the use of blood chemistry to classify pansteatitis across different species, trophic levels, and within different sites along the Olifants River. PMID:27115488

Preliminary validation of computational model for neutron flux prediction of Thai Research Reactor (TRR-1/M1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabaibang, S.; Lekchaum, S.; Tipayakul, C.

2015-05-01

This study is a part of an on-going work to develop a computational model of Thai Research Reactor (TRR-1/M1) which is capable of accurately predicting the neutron flux level and spectrum. The computational model was created by MCNPX program and the CT (Central Thimble) in-core irradiation facility was selected as the location for validation. The comparison was performed with the typical flux measurement method routinely practiced at TRR-1/M1, that is, the foil activation technique. In this technique, gold foil is irradiated for a certain period of time and the activity of the irradiated target is measured to derive the thermal neutron flux. Additionally, the flux measurement with SPND (self-powered neutron detector) was also performed for comparison. The thermal neutron flux from the MCNPX simulation was found to be 1.79×1013 neutron/cm2s while that from the foil activation measurement was 4.68×1013 neutron/cm2s. On the other hand, the thermal neutron flux from the measurement using SPND was 2.47×1013 neutron/cm2s. An assessment of the differences among the three methods was done. The difference of the MCNPX with the foil activation technique was found to be 67.8% and the difference of the MCNPX with the SPND was found to be 27.8%.

Which offers more scope to suppress river phytoplankton blooms: reducing nutrient pollution or riparian shading?

PubMed

Hutchins, M G; Johnson, A C; Deflandre-Vlandas, A; Comber, S; Posen, P; Boorman, D

2010-10-01

River flow and quality data, including chlorophyll-a as a surrogate for river phytoplankton biomass, were collated for the River Ouse catchment in NE England, which according to established criteria is a largely unpolluted network. Against these data, a daily river quality model (QUESTOR) was setup and successfully tested. Following a review, a river quality classification scheme based on phytoplankton biomass was proposed. Based on climate change predictions the model indicated that a shift from present day oligotrophic/mesotrophic conditions to a mesotrophic/eutrophic system could occur by 2080. Management options were evaluated to mitigate against this predicted decline in quality. Reducing nutrient pollution was found to be less effective at suppressing phytoplankton growth than the less costly option of establishing riparian shading. In the Swale tributary, ongoing efforts to reduce phosphorus loads in sewage treatment works will only reduce peak (95th percentile) phytoplankton by 11%, whereas a reduction of 44% is possible if riparian tree cover is also implemented. Likewise, in the Ure, whilst reducing nitrate loads by curtailing agriculture in the headwaters may bring about a 10% reduction, riparian shading would instead reduce levels by 47%. Such modelling studies are somewhat limited by insufficient field data but offer a potentially very valuable tool to assess the most cost-effective methods of tackling effects of eutrophication. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking removal targets to the ecological effects of invaders: a predictive model and field test.

PubMed

Green, Stephanie J; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Brooks, Annabelle M L; Akins, John L; Cooper, Andrew B; Miller, Skylar; Côté, Isabelle M

Species invasions have a range of negative effects on recipient ecosystems, and many occur at a scale and magnitude that preclude complete eradication. When complete extirpation is unlikely with available management resources, an effective strategy may be to suppress invasive populations below levels predicted to cause undesirable ecological change. We illustrated this approach by developing and testing targets for the control of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) on Western Atlantic coral reefs. We first developed a size-structured simulation model of predation by lionfish on native fish communities, which we used to predict threshold densities of lionfish beyond which native fish biomass should decline. We then tested our predictions by experimentally manipulating lionfish densities above or below reef-specific thresholds, and monitoring the consequences for native fish populations on 24 Bahamian patch reefs over 18 months. We found that reducing lionfish below predicted threshold densities effectively protected native fish community biomass from predation-induced declines. Reductions in density of 25–92%, depending on the reef, were required to suppress lionfish below levels predicted to overconsume prey. On reefs where lionfish were kept below threshold densities, native prey fish biomass increased by 50–70%. Gains in small (<6 cm) size classes of native fishes translated into lagged increases in larger size classes over time. The biomass of larger individuals (>15 cm total length), including ecologically important grazers and economically important fisheries species, had increased by 10–65% by the end of the experiment. Crucially, similar gains in prey fish biomass were realized on reefs subjected to partial and full removal of lionfish, but partial removals took 30% less time to implement. By contrast, the biomass of small native fishes declined by >50% on all reefs with lionfish densities exceeding reef-specific thresholds. Large inter-reef variation in the biomass of prey fishes at the outset of the study, which influences the threshold density of lionfish, means that we could not identify a single rule of thumb for guiding control efforts. However, our model provides a method for setting reef-specific targets for population control using local monitoring data. Our work is the first to demonstrate that for ongoing invasions, suppressing invaders below densities that cause environmental harm can have a similar effect, in terms of protecting the native ecosystem on a local scale, to achieving complete eradication.

Repurposing High-Throughput Image Assays Enables Biological Activity Prediction for Drug Discovery.

PubMed

Simm, Jaak; Klambauer, Günter; Arany, Adam; Steijaert, Marvin; Wegner, Jörg Kurt; Gustin, Emmanuel; Chupakhin, Vladimir; Chong, Yolanda T; Vialard, Jorge; Buijnsters, Peter; Velter, Ingrid; Vapirev, Alexander; Singh, Shantanu; Carpenter, Anne E; Wuyts, Roel; Hochreiter, Sepp; Moreau, Yves; Ceulemans, Hugo

2018-05-17

In both academia and the pharmaceutical industry, large-scale assays for drug discovery are expensive and often impractical, particularly for the increasingly important physiologically relevant model systems that require primary cells, organoids, whole organisms, or expensive or rare reagents. We hypothesized that data from a single high-throughput imaging assay can be repurposed to predict the biological activity of compounds in other assays, even those targeting alternate pathways or biological processes. Indeed, quantitative information extracted from a three-channel microscopy-based screen for glucocorticoid receptor translocation was able to predict assay-specific biological activity in two ongoing drug discovery projects. In these projects, repurposing increased hit rates by 50- to 250-fold over that of the initial project assays while increasing the chemical structure diversity of the hits. Our results suggest that data from high-content screens are a rich source of information that can be used to predict and replace customized biological assays. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian accrual prediction for interim review of clinical studies: open source R package and smartphone application.

PubMed

Jiang, Yu; Guarino, Peter; Ma, Shuangge; Simon, Steve; Mayo, Matthew S; Raghavan, Rama; Gajewski, Byron J

2016-07-22

Subject recruitment for medical research is challenging. Slow patient accrual leads to increased costs and delays in treatment advances. Researchers need reliable tools to manage and predict the accrual rate. The previously developed Bayesian method integrates researchers' experience on former trials and data from an ongoing study, providing a reliable prediction of accrual rate for clinical studies. In this paper, we present a user-friendly graphical user interface program developed in R. A closed-form solution for the total subjects that can be recruited within a fixed time is derived. We also present a built-in Android system using Java for web browsers and mobile devices. Using the accrual software, we re-evaluated the Veteran Affairs Cooperative Studies Program 558- ROBOTICS study. The application of the software in monitoring and management of recruitment is illustrated for different stages of the trial. This developed accrual software provides a more convenient platform for estimation and prediction of the accrual process.

Cancer stem cell-related gene expression as a potential biomarker of response for first-in-class imipridone ONC201 in solid tumors.

PubMed

Prabhu, Varun V; Lulla, Amriti R; Madhukar, Neel S; Ralff, Marie D; Zhao, Dan; Kline, Christina Leah B; Van den Heuvel, A Pieter J; Lev, Avital; Garnett, Mathew J; McDermott, Ultan; Benes, Cyril H; Batchelor, Tracy T; Chi, Andrew S; Elemento, Olivier; Allen, Joshua E; El-Deiry, Wafik S

2017-01-01

Cancer stem cells (CSCs) correlate with recurrence, metastasis and poor survival in clinical studies. Encouraging results from clinical trials of CSC inhibitors have further validated CSCs as therapeutic targets. ONC201 is a first-in-class small molecule imipridone in Phase I/II clinical trials for advanced cancer. We have previously shown that ONC201 targets self-renewing, chemotherapy-resistant colorectal CSCs via Akt/ERK inhibition and DR5/TRAIL induction. In this study, we demonstrate that the anti-CSC effects of ONC201 involve early changes in stem cell-related gene expression prior to tumor cell death induction. A targeted network analysis of gene expression profiles in colorectal cancer cells revealed that ONC201 downregulates stem cell pathways such as Wnt signaling and modulates genes (ID1, ID2, ID3 and ALDH7A1) known to regulate self-renewal in colorectal, prostate cancer and glioblastoma. ONC201-mediated changes in CSC-related gene expression were validated at the RNA and protein level for each tumor type. Accordingly, we observed inhibition of self-renewal and CSC markers in prostate cancer cell lines and patient-derived glioblastoma cells upon ONC201 treatment. Interestingly, ONC201-mediated CSC depletion does not occur in colorectal cancer cells with acquired resistance to ONC201. Finally, we observed that basal expression of CSC-related genes (ID1, CD44, HES7 and TCF3) significantly correlate with ONC201 efficacy in >1000 cancer cell lines and combining the expression of multiple genes leads to a stronger overall prediction. These proof-of-concept studies provide a rationale for testing CSC expression at the RNA and protein level as a predictive and pharmacodynamic biomarker of ONC201 response in ongoing clinical studies.

Cancer stem cell-related gene expression as a potential biomarker of response for first-in-class imipridone ONC201 in solid tumors

PubMed Central

Zhao, Dan; Kline, Christina Leah B.; Van den Heuvel, A. Pieter J.; Lev, Avital; Garnett, Mathew J.; McDermott, Ultan; Benes, Cyril H.; Batchelor, Tracy T.; Chi, Andrew S.; Elemento, Olivier; Allen, Joshua E.

2017-01-01

Cancer stem cells (CSCs) correlate with recurrence, metastasis and poor survival in clinical studies. Encouraging results from clinical trials of CSC inhibitors have further validated CSCs as therapeutic targets. ONC201 is a first-in-class small molecule imipridone in Phase I/II clinical trials for advanced cancer. We have previously shown that ONC201 targets self-renewing, chemotherapy-resistant colorectal CSCs via Akt/ERK inhibition and DR5/TRAIL induction. In this study, we demonstrate that the anti-CSC effects of ONC201 involve early changes in stem cell-related gene expression prior to tumor cell death induction. A targeted network analysis of gene expression profiles in colorectal cancer cells revealed that ONC201 downregulates stem cell pathways such as Wnt signaling and modulates genes (ID1, ID2, ID3 and ALDH7A1) known to regulate self-renewal in colorectal, prostate cancer and glioblastoma. ONC201-mediated changes in CSC-related gene expression were validated at the RNA and protein level for each tumor type. Accordingly, we observed inhibition of self-renewal and CSC markers in prostate cancer cell lines and patient-derived glioblastoma cells upon ONC201 treatment. Interestingly, ONC201-mediated CSC depletion does not occur in colorectal cancer cells with acquired resistance to ONC201. Finally, we observed that basal expression of CSC-related genes (ID1, CD44, HES7 and TCF3) significantly correlate with ONC201 efficacy in >1000 cancer cell lines and combining the expression of multiple genes leads to a stronger overall prediction. These proof-of-concept studies provide a rationale for testing CSC expression at the RNA and protein level as a predictive and pharmacodynamic biomarker of ONC201 response in ongoing clinical studies. PMID:28767654

Pre-attack symptomatology and temperament as predictors of children's responses to the September 11 terrorist attacks.

PubMed

Lengua, Liliana J; Long, Anna C; Smith, Kimberlee I; Meltzoff, Andrew N

2005-06-01

The aims of this study were to assess the psychological response of children following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, DC and to examine prospective predictors of children's post-attack responses. Children's responses were assessed in a community sample of children in Seattle, Washington, participating in an ongoing study. Symptomatology and temperament assessed prior to the attacks were examined as prospective predictors of post-attack post-traumatic stress (PTS), anxiety, depression and externalizing problems. Children demonstrated PTS symptoms and worries at levels comparable to those in children directly experiencing disasters, with 77% of children reporting being worried, 68% being upset by reminders, and 39% having upsetting thoughts. The most common PTS symptom cluster was re-experiencing, and 8% of children met criteria consistent with PTSD. African-American children reported more avoidant PTS symptoms and being more upset by the attacks than European-American children. Girls reported being more upset than boys. Prior internalizing, externalizing, social competence and self-esteem were related to post-attack PTS; and child inhibitory control, assessed prior to the 9/11 attacks, demonstrated a trend towards an association with post-attack PTS symptoms controlling for prior levels of symptomatology. PTS predicted child-report anxiety and conduct problem symptoms at follow-up, approximately 6 months after 9/11. Children experiencing a major disaster at a distance or indirectly through media exposure demonstrated worries and PTS symptoms suggesting that communities need to attend to children's mental health needs in response to national or regional disasters. Pre-disaster symptomatology or low self-regulation may render children more vulnerable in response to a disaster, and immediate post-disaster responses predict subsequent symptomatology. These variables might be used in the identification of children in need of intervention.

Single trial prediction of self-paced reaching directions from EEG signals.

PubMed

Lew, Eileen Y L; Chavarriaga, Ricardo; Silvoni, Stefano; Millán, José Del R

2014-01-01

Early detection of movement intention could possibly minimize the delays in the activation of neuroprosthetic devices. As yet, single trial analysis using non-invasive approaches for understanding such movement preparation remains a challenging task. We studied the feasibility of predicting movement directions in self-paced upper limb center-out reaching tasks, i.e., spontaneous movements executed without an external cue that can better reflect natural motor behavior in humans. We reported results of non-invasive electroencephalography (EEG) recorded from mild stroke patients and able-bodied participants. Previous studies have shown that low frequency EEG oscillations are modulated by the intent to move and therefore, can be decoded prior to the movement execution. Motivated by these results, we investigated whether slow cortical potentials (SCPs) preceding movement onset can be used to classify reaching directions and evaluated the performance using 5-fold cross-validation. For able-bodied subjects, we obtained an average decoding accuracy of 76% (chance level of 25%) at 62.5 ms before onset using the amplitude of on-going SCPs with above chance level performances between 875 to 437.5 ms prior to onset. The decoding accuracy for the stroke patients was on average 47% with their paretic arms. Comparison of the decoding accuracy across different frequency ranges (i.e., SCPs, delta, theta, alpha, and gamma) yielded the best accuracy using SCPs filtered between 0.1 to 1 Hz. Across all the subjects, including stroke subjects, the best selected features were obtained mostly from the fronto-parietal regions, hence consistent with previous neurophysiological studies on arm reaching tasks. In summary, we concluded that SCPs allow the possibility of single trial decoding of reaching directions at least 312.5 ms before onset of reach.

Using an agent-based model to evaluate the effect of producer specialization on the epidemiological resilience of livestock production networks

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

An agent-based computer model that builds representative regional U.S. hog production networks was developed and employed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing trend towards increased producer specialization upon network-level resilience to catastrophic disease outbreaks. Empirical analyses suggest that the spatial distribution and connectivity patterns of contact networks often predict epidemic spreading dynamics. Our model heuristically generates realistic systems composed of hog producer, feed mill, and slaughter plant agents. Network edges are added during each run as agents exchange livestock and feed. The heuristics governing agents’ contact patterns account for factors including their industry roles, physical proximities, and the age of their livestock. In each run, an infection is introduced, and may spread according to probabilities associated with the various modes of contact. For each of three treatments—defined by one-phase, two-phase, and three-phase production systems—a parameter variation experiment examines the impact of the spatial density of producer agents in the system upon the length and size of disease outbreaks. Resulting data show phase transitions whereby, above some density threshold, systemic outbreaks become possible, echoing findings from percolation theory. Data analysis reveals that multi-phase production systems are vulnerable to catastrophic outbreaks at lower spatial densities, have more abrupt percolation transitions, and are characterized by less-predictable outbreak scales and durations. Key differences in network-level metrics shed light on these results, suggesting that the absence of potentially-bridging producer–producer edges may be largely responsible for the superior disease resilience of single-phase “farrow to finish” production systems. PMID:29522574

Adapting to Sea Level Rise to the Year 2100 and Beyond in the State of Florida, USA: A Regional Approach Based upon Common Vulnerabilities and the Utility of Shared Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, R. W.; Harlem, P. W.; Meeder, J.

2014-12-01

We simulate the vulnerability of all 35 Florida coastal counties to the ongoing Anthropocene marine transgression unconstrained by the artificial end date of year 2100. Coastal submergence was emulated using a 'bathtub model' and rising sea level associated with an atmospheric temperature increase of +1 oC to +4 oC (see Levermann et al. [1]). Simulation results are organized into seven regions, each representing an area of common vulnerability characterized in this study as high (9% to 30% land loss), higher (16 to 68% land loss) and highest (48% to 97% land loss). This grouping provides a logical basis for establishing or re-enforcing collaboration based upon a common threat and the utility of shared technical and financial resources. Our bathtub model assumes Florida terrain is simply submerged as the shoreline migrates across a static landscape without change in the physical and biological materials subject to marine transgression. However, geologic studies of past and present Florida shorelines indicate the rate of rise is as important as the magnitude when predicting coastal response. To determine the utility of the bathtub model as a representative simulation of Florida's response to future sea level rise, we considered Florida's coastal response to varying rates of sea level rise over the last 14,000 years. Available data clearly demonstrate predicted rates of sea level rise will result in widespread submergence; the rate of rise will be too fast to be offset by the stabilizing forces of biogenic or physical sediment accumulation. Hence the magnitude of land loss and associated shoreline retreat in each of the seven Florida regions - and likely other coastal zones in the southeast U.S. - will be solely a function of topographic elevation and can therefore be reasonably forecast using a bathtub model. While our focus is on Florida's coastal counties, we recognize in some regions the effects of sea level rise will extend further inland. In these areas, the regional boundaries could be expanded to include adjacent non-coastal counties. However, differences in the perception of risk and associated vulnerability between coastal and inland counties may complicate timely collaboration. References: [1] A. Levermann et al. (2013), The Multi-Millennial Sea-Level Commitment of Global Warming, doi:10.1073/pnas.1219414110.

Assessing ongoing sources of dissolved-phase polychlorinated biphenyls in a contaminated stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dang, Viet D.; Walters, David M.; Lee, Cindy M.

2013-01-01

Few studies assess the potential of ongoing sources of “fresh” polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to aquatic systems when direct discharge to the environment has been eliminated. In the present study, the authors used single-layered, low-density polyethylene samplers (PEs) to measure total PCB concentrations, congener profiles, and enantiomeric fractions (EFs) in a contaminated stream and to provide multiple lines of evidence for assessing ongoing inputs of PCB. Concentrations were well above background levels that have been monitored for years. Concentrations significantly increased with distance, the farthest downstream PE concentrations being almost five times greater than those at 79 m downstream of a historical point source. The PCBs in the PEs at 79 m downstream of the contamination source were dominated by low KOW congeners, similar to those in the mixture of Aroclors 1016 and 1254 (4:1 v/v) historically released from the former capacitor manufacturer. The only two chiral congeners detected in the PEs downstream were PCBs 91 and 95. The EF values were nonracemic for PCB 91, while the values were either racemic or near racemic for PCB 95. Increased PCB concentrations with distance and a congener composition of predominantly low-weight congeners in the PEs at 79 m downstream of the plant site suggested an ongoing PCB source from the plant site. Chiral signatures suggested aerobic biotransformation of dissolved PCBs but did not shed any light on possible ongoing PCB inputs.

Progressive histological damage in renal allografts is associated with expression of innate and adaptive immunity genes

PubMed Central

Naesens, Maarten; Khatri, Purvesh; Li, Li; Sigdel, Tara K.; Vitalone, Matthew J.; Chen, Rong; Butte, Atul J.; Salvatierra, Oscar; Sarwal, Minnie M.

2015-01-01

The degree of progressive chronic histological damage is associated with long-term renal allograft survival. In order to identify promising molecular targets for timely intervention, we examined renal allograft protocol and indication biopsies from 120 low-risk pediatric and adolescent recipients by whole-genome microarray expression profiling. In data-driven analysis, we found a highly regulated pattern of adaptive and innate immune gene expression that correlated with established or ongoing histological chronic injury, and also with development of future chronic histological damage, even in histologically pristine kidneys. Hence, histologically unrecognized immunological injury at a molecular level sets the stage for the development of chronic tissue injury, while the same molecular response is accentuated during established and worsening chronic allograft damage. Irrespective of the hypothesized immune or nonimmune trigger for chronic allograft injury, a highly orchestrated regulation of innate and adaptive immune responses was found in the graft at the molecular level. This occurred months before histologic lesions appear, and quantitatively below the diagnostic threshold of classic T-cell or antibody-mediated rejection. Thus, measurement of specific immune gene expression in protocol biopsies may be warranted to predict the development of subsequent chronic injury in histologically quiescent grafts and as a means to titrate immunosuppressive therapy. PMID:21881554

Can Increased CO2 Levels Trigger a Runaway Greenhouse on the Earth?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, R.

2014-04-01

Recent one-dimensional (globally averaged) climate model calculations suggest that increased atmospheric CO2 could conceivably trigger a runaway greenhouse if CO2 concentrations were approximately 100 times higher than today. The new prediction runs contrary to previous calculations, which indicated that CO2 increases could not trigger a runaway, even at Venus-like CO2 concentrations. Goldblatt et al. argue that this different behavior is a consequence of updated absorption coefficients for H2O that make a runaway more likely. Here, we use a 1-D cloud-free climate model with similar, up-to-date absorption coefficients, but with a self-consistent methodology, to demonstrate that CO2 increases cannot induce a runaway greenhouse on the modern Earth. However, these initial calculations do not include cloud feedback, which may be positive at higher temperatures, destabilizing Earth's climate. We then show new calculations demonstrating that cirrus clouds cannot trigger a runaway, even in the complete absence of low clouds. Thus, the habitability of an Earth-like planet at Earth's distance appears to be ensured, irrespective of the sign of cloud feedback. Our results are of importance to Earth-like planets that receive similar insolation levels as does the Earth and to the ongoing question about cloud response at higher temperatures.

Progressive histological damage in renal allografts is associated with expression of innate and adaptive immunity genes.

PubMed

Naesens, Maarten; Khatri, Purvesh; Li, Li; Sigdel, Tara K; Vitalone, Matthew J; Chen, Rong; Butte, Atul J; Salvatierra, Oscar; Sarwal, Minnie M

2011-12-01

The degree of progressive chronic histological damage is associated with long-term renal allograft survival. In order to identify promising molecular targets for timely intervention, we examined renal allograft protocol and indication biopsies from 120 low-risk pediatric and adolescent recipients by whole-genome microarray expression profiling. In data-driven analysis, we found a highly regulated pattern of adaptive and innate immune gene expression that correlated with established or ongoing histological chronic injury, and also with development of future chronic histological damage, even in histologically pristine kidneys. Hence, histologically unrecognized immunological injury at a molecular level sets the stage for the development of chronic tissue injury, while the same molecular response is accentuated during established and worsening chronic allograft damage. Irrespective of the hypothesized immune or nonimmune trigger for chronic allograft injury, a highly orchestrated regulation of innate and adaptive immune responses was found in the graft at the molecular level. This occurred months before histologic lesions appear, and quantitatively below the diagnostic threshold of classic T-cell or antibody-mediated rejection. Thus, measurement of specific immune gene expression in protocol biopsies may be warranted to predict the development of subsequent chronic injury in histologically quiescent grafts and as a means to titrate immunosuppressive therapy.

Impact of stressors in a natural context on release of cortisol in healthy adult humans: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Michaud, Kathy; Matheson, Kimberly; Kelly, Owen; Anisman, Hymie

2008-05-01

Increased hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) activation, culminating in elevated circulating cortisol levels is a fundamental response to stressors. In animals, this neuroendocrine change is highly reliable and marked (approximately 5-10-fold elevations), whereas in humans, the increase of cortisol release is less pronounced, and even some potent life-threatening events (anticipation of surgery) only elicit modest cortisol increases. Meta-analysis of factors that influenced the increase of cortisol release in a laboratory context pointed to the importance of social evaluative threats and stressor controllability in accounting for the cortisol rise. The present meta-analysis, covering the period from 1978 through March 2007, was undertaken to identify the factors most closely aligned with cortisol increases in natural settings. It appeared that stressor chronicity was fundamental in predicting cortisol changes; however, this variable is often confounded by the stressor type, the stressor's controllability, as well as contextual factors, making it difficult to disentangle their relative contributions to the cortisol response. Moreover, several experiential factors (e.g. previous stressor experiences) may influence the cortisol response to ongoing stressors, but these are not readily deduced through a meta-analysis. Nevertheless, there are ample data suggesting that stressful events, through their actions on cortisol levels and reactivity, may influence psychological and physical pathology.

A Dynamic Calibration Method for Experimental and Analytical Hub Load Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreshock, Andrew R.; Thornburgh, Robert P.; Wilbur, Matthew L.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the results from an ongoing effort to produce improved correlation between analytical hub force and moment prediction and those measured during wind-tunnel testing on the Aeroelastic Rotor Experimental System (ARES), a conventional rotor testbed commonly used at the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT). A frequency-dependent transformation between loads at the rotor hub and outputs of the testbed balance is produced from frequency response functions measured during vibration testing of the system. The resulting transformation is used as a dynamic calibration of the balance to transform hub loads predicted by comprehensive analysis into predicted balance outputs. In addition to detailing the transformation process, this paper also presents a set of wind-tunnel test cases, with comparisons between the measured balance outputs and transformed predictions from the comprehensive analysis code CAMRAD II. The modal response of the testbed is discussed and compared to a detailed finite-element model. Results reveal that the modal response of the testbed exhibits a number of characteristics that make accurate dynamic balance predictions challenging, even with the use of the balance transformation.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Post-injury personality in the prediction of outcome following severe acquired brain injury.

PubMed

Cattran, Charlotte Jane; Oddy, Michael; Wood, Rodger Llewellyn; Moir, Jane Frances

2011-01-01

The aim of the study was to examine the utility of five measures of non-cognitive neurobehavioural (NCNB) changes that often occur following acquired brain injury, in predicting outcome (measured in terms of participation and social adaptation) at 1-year follow-up. The study employed a longitudinal, correlational design. Multiple regression was employed to investigate the value of five new NCNB measures of social perception, emotional regulation, motivation, impulsivity and disinhibition in the prediction of outcome as measured by the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI). Two NCNB measures (motivation and emotional regulation) were found to significantly predict outcome at 1-year follow-up, accounting for 53% of the variance in MPAI total scores. These measures provide a method of quantifying the extent of NCNB changes following brain injury. The predictive value of the measures indicates that they may represent a useful tool which could aid clinicians in identifying early-on those whose symptoms are likely to persist and who may require ongoing intervention. This could facilitate the planning of rehabilitation programmes.

The control of tonic pain by active relief learning

PubMed Central

Mano, Hiroaki; Lee, Michael; Yoshida, Wako; Kawato, Mitsuo; Robbins, Trevor W

2018-01-01

Tonic pain after injury characterises a behavioural state that prioritises recovery. Although generally suppressing cognition and attention, tonic pain needs to allow effective relief learning to reduce the cause of the pain. Here, we describe a central learning circuit that supports learning of relief and concurrently suppresses the level of ongoing pain. We used computational modelling of behavioural, physiological and neuroimaging data in two experiments in which subjects learned to terminate tonic pain in static and dynamic escape-learning paradigms. In both studies, we show that active relief-seeking involves a reinforcement learning process manifest by error signals observed in the dorsal putamen. Critically, this system uses an uncertainty (‘associability’) signal detected in pregenual anterior cingulate cortex that both controls the relief learning rate, and endogenously and parametrically modulates the level of tonic pain. The results define a self-organising learning circuit that reduces ongoing pain when learning about potential relief. PMID:29482716

Quantification of Dune Response over the Course of a 6-Day Nor'Easter, Outer Banks, NC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brodie, K. L.; Spore, N.; Swann, C.

2014-12-01

The amount and type of foredune morphologic change during a storm event primarily scales with the level of inundation during that event. Specifically, external hydrodynamic forcing (total water level) can be compared with antecedent beach and foredune morphology to predict an impact regime that relates to the type of expected morphologic evolution of the system. For example, when total water levels are above the dune toe, but below the dune crest, the impact regime is classified as "collision" and the expected morphology response is slumping or scarping of the dune face. While the amount of dune retreat scales largely with the duration of wave attack to the dune face, characteristics of the dune other than its crest or toe elevation may also enhance or impede rates of morphologic change. The aftermath of Hurricane Sandy provided a unique opportunity to observe alongshore variations in dune response to a 6-day Nor'Easter (Hs >4 m in 6 m depth), as a variety of dunes were constructed (or not) by individual home owners in preparation for the winter storm season. Daily terrestrial lidar scans were conducted along 20 km of coastline in Duck, NC using Coastal Lidar And Radar Imaging System (CLARIS) during the first dune collision event following Sandy. Foredunes were grouped by their pre-storm form (e.g. vegetated, pushed, scarped, etc) using automated feature extraction tools based on surface curvature and slope, and daily rates of morphologic volume change were calculated. The highest dune retreat rates were focused along a 1.5 km region where cross-shore erosion of recently pushed, un-vegetated dunes reached 2 m/day. Variations in dune response were analyzed in relation to their pre-storm morphology, with care taken to normalize for alongshore variations in hydrodynamic forcing. Ongoing research is focused on identifying specific metrics that can be easily extracted from topographic DEMs to aid in dune retreat predictions.

Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity.

PubMed

Matías, Luis; Linares, Juan C; Sánchez-Miranda, Ángela; Jump, Alistair S

2017-10-01

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ximelagatran (AstraZeneca).

PubMed

Hopfner, Rob

2002-02-01

AstraZeneca (formerly Astra) is developing ximelagatran, an orally active thrombin inhibitor and prodrug of melagatran, for the potential prevention and treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hip and knee replacement, for prevention of stroke in atrialfibrillation (AF) and for post acute coronary syndrome. As of December 1999, the compound was undergoing phase III trials for the prevention of VTE [349551]; these were ongoing in December 2001. By December 2000, ximelagatran had entered phase III trials for the prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation [395212]. In September 2000, the company expected global NDA filing for this indication to take place in the middle of 2001 [383469]; however, in December 2000 this was revised to the second half of 2002 [395212], and in March 2001, to the second quarter of 2003 [402040], [416882], [431673]. By December 2000, a phase II trial was underway of ximelagatran as a potential treatment following myocardial infarction [395237]. In December 2001, early phase clinical trials were ongoing for post acute coronary syndrome [431673]. By December 2001, EU and US filings for VTE prevention were anticipated in the third quarter of 2002 and the second quarter of 2003, respectively [3144721, [350050], [431673]. Exanta is the trade name for both melagatran and ximelagatran. In 1998, marketing of ximelagatran in the US was to be assigned to the Astra/Merek joint marketing venture, prior to the merger [276577]. In April 1999, ABN predicted sales of 4 pounds million in 2003 [328676], [394606]. In December 2000, Lehman Brothers estimated peak sales to be $1.4 billion [394606]. At the same time, ABN-AMRO predicted peak sales of more than $1 billion [395237]. In June 2000, Deutsche Bank predicted sales of $70 million in 2002, rising to $245 million in 2003 [374500]. In September 2000, Merrill Lynch predicted sales of 125 pounds million in 2002, rising to 625 pounds million in 2004 [383742]. In February 2001, Merrill Lynch estimated that peak sales would reach $924 million in 2005 [429697].

The Orinoco megadelta as a conservation target in the face of the ongoing and future sea level rise.

PubMed

Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T; Hernández, E; Rull, Valentí; Rull Vegas, Elisa

2015-05-15

Currently, risk assessments related to rising sea levels and the adoption of defensive or adaptive measures to counter these sea level increases are underway for densely populated deltas where economic losses might be important, especially in the developed world. However, many underpopulated deltas harbouring high biological and cultural diversity are also at risk but will most likely continue to be ignored as conservation targets. In this study, we explore the potential effects of erosion, inundation and salinisation on one of the world's comparatively underpopulated megadeltas, the Orinoco Delta. With a 1 m sea level rise expected to occur by 2100, several models predict a moderate erosion of the delta's shorelines, migration or loss of mangroves, general inundation of the delta with an accompanying submersion of wetlands, and an increase in the distance to which sea water intrudes into streams, resulting in harm to the freshwater biota and resources. The Warao people are the indigenous inhabitants of the Orinoco Delta and currently are subject to various socioeconomic stressors. Changes due to sea level rise will occur extremely rapidly and cause abrupt shifts in the Warao's traditional environments and resources, resulting in migrations and abandonment of their ancestral territories. However, evidence indicates that deltaic aggradation/accretion processes at the Orinoco delta due to allochthonous sediment input and vegetation growth could be elevating the surface of the land, keeping pace with the local sea level rise. Other underpopulated and large deltas of the world also may risk immeasurable biodiversity and cultural losses and should not be forgotten as important conservation targets. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Level of intrauterine cocaine exposure and neuropsychological test scores in preadolescence: subtle effects on auditory attention and narrative memory.

PubMed

Beeghly, Marjorie; Rose-Jacobs, Ruth; Martin, Brett M; Cabral, Howard J; Heeren, Timothy C; Frank, Deborah A

2014-01-01

Neuropsychological processes such as attention and memory contribute to children's higher-level cognitive and language functioning and predict academic achievement. The goal of this analysis was to evaluate whether level of intrauterine cocaine exposure (IUCE) alters multiple aspects of preadolescents' neuropsychological functioning assessed using a single age-referenced instrument, the NEPSY: A Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment (NEPSY) (Korkman et al., 1998), after controlling for relevant covariates. Participants included 137 term 9.5-year-old children from low-income urban backgrounds (51% male, 90% African American/Caribbean) from an ongoing prospective longitudinal study. Level of IUCE was assessed in the newborn period using infant meconium and maternal report. 52% of the children had IUCE (65% with lighter IUCE, and 35% with heavier IUCE), and 48% were unexposed. Infants with Fetal Alcohol Syndrome, HIV seropositivity, or intrauterine exposure to illicit substances other than cocaine and marijuana were excluded. At the 9.5-year follow-up visit, trained examiners masked to IUCE and background variables evaluated children's neuropsychological functioning using the NEPSY. The association between level of IUCE and NEPSY outcomes was evaluated in a series of linear regressions controlling for intrauterine exposure to other substances and relevant child, caregiver, and demographic variables. Results indicated that level of IUCE was associated with lower scores on the Auditory Attention and Narrative Memory tasks, both of which require auditory information processing and sustained attention for successful performance. However, results did not follow the expected ordinal, dose-dependent pattern. Children's neuropsychological test scores were also altered by a variety of other biological and psychosocial factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Kinetics of Antidrug Antibodies, Drug Levels, and Clinical Outcomes in Infliximab-Exposed Patients with Immune-Mediated Disorders.

PubMed

Nencini, Francesca; Vultaggio, Alessandra; Pratesi, Sara; Cammelli, Daniele; Milla, Monica; Fiori, Ginevra; Bagnoli, Siro; Prignano, Francesca; Romagnani, Sergio; Maggi, Enrico; Matucci, Andrea

2018-04-13

Hypersensitivity reactions (HRs) and loss of response (LOR) to infliximab (IFX) are related to drug immunogenicity characterized by antidrug antibodies (ADAs). To analyze the timing of ADA appearance and its relationship with drug levels and clinical outcomes in IFX-treated patients with different diseases. Samples were longitudinally collected before each infusion from 91 IFX-treated patients and were assayed for ADA and drug levels by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and for IgE by ImmunoCAP system. Clinical data regarding efficacy and safety of therapy were also monitored. The ADA onset occured quite early, irrespective of the type of disease, during the first year and more frequently and earlier during the second cycle of therapy. Patients with HR were more frequently ADA-positive and with higher ADA titers compared with other patient groups. ADA onset tends to precede HRs and LOR; all HRs that occur after a period of drug interruption are preceded by ADA development. Before ADA detection, a progressive decline in IFX levels until a complete disappearance was observed. The ADA titer was maintained for years both in patients with ongoing therapy and in those who interrupted it. IgE ADAs are more frequently developed in patients with higher ADA levels and earlier ADA onset, but their rate of negativization is faster. The present data suggest that most IFX-exposed patients develop ADAs within the first year of treatment irrespective of disease type. The clinical outcome to the treatment is preceded by ADA development, which in turn is associated with the reduction in drug serum levels. Both ADA evaluation and therapeutic drug monitoring may have a relevant impact on clinical practice, giving new insights to predict LOR and HRs. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Flow Quality Survey of the NASA Ames 11-by 11-Ft Transonic Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amaya, Max A.

2011-01-01

New baseline turbulence levels have been measured using a new CTA and new hot-wire sensors. Levels remain the same as measured in 1999. Data and methodology documented (almost). New baseline acoustics levels have been measured up to Mach 1.35. -Levels are higher than reported in 1999. -Data and methodology documented (almost). Application of fairings to the strut trailing edge showed up to a 10% reduction in the tunnel background noise. Data analysis and documentation for publishing is ongoing.

Reducing patient drug acquisition costs can lower diabetes health claims.

PubMed

Mahoney, John J

2005-08-01

Concerned about rising prevalence and costs of diabetes among its employees, Pitney Bowes Inc recently revamped its drug benefit design to synergize with ongoing efforts in its disease management and patient education programs. Specifically, based on a predictive model showing that low medication adherence was linked to subsequent increases in healthcare costs in patients with diabetes, the company shifted all diabetes drugs and devices from tier 2 or 3 formulary status to tier 1. The rationale was that reducing patient out-of-pocket costs would eliminate financial barriers to preventive care, and thereby increase adherence, reduce costly complications, and slow the overall rate of rising healthcare costs. This single change in pharmaceutical benefit design immediately made critical brand-name drugs available to most Pitney Bowes employees and their covered dependents for 10% coinsurance, the same coinsurance level as for generic drugs, versus the previous cost share of 25% to 50%. After 2 to 3 years, preliminary results in plan participants with diabetes indicate that medication possession rates have increased significantly, use of fixed-combination drugs has increased (possibly related to easier adherence), average total pharmacy costs have decreased by 7%, and emergency department visits have decreased by 26%. Hospital admission rates, although increasing slightly, remain below the demographically adjusted Medstat benchmark. Overall direct healthcare costs per plan participant with diabetes decreased by 6%. In addition, the rate of increase in overall per-plan-participant health costs at Pitney Bowes has slowed markedly, with net per-plan-participant costs in 2003 at about 4000 dollars per year versus 6500 dollars for the industry benchmark. This recent moderation in overall corporate health costs may be related to these strategic changes in drug benefit design for diabetes, asthma, and hypertension and also to ongoing enhancements in the company's disease management and wellness programs.

Population genetics of mouse lemur vomeronasal receptors: current versus past selection and demographic inference.

PubMed

Hohenbrink, Philipp; Mundy, Nicholas I; Radespiel, Ute

2017-01-21

A major effort is underway to use population genetic approaches to identify loci involved in adaptation. One issue that has so far received limited attention is whether loci that show a phylogenetic signal of positive selection in the past also show evidence of ongoing positive selection at the population level. We address this issue using vomeronasal receptors (VRs), a diverse gene family in mammals involved in intraspecific communication and predator detection. In mouse lemurs, we previously demonstrated that both subfamilies of VRs (V1Rs and V2Rs) show a strong signal of directional selection in interspecific analyses. We predicted that ongoing sexual selection and/or co-evolution with predators may lead to current directional or balancing selection on VRs. Here, we re-sequence 17 VRs and perform a suite of selection and demographic analyses in sympatric populations of two species of mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus and M. ravelobensis) in northwestern Madagascar. M. ravelobensis had consistently higher genetic diversity at VRs than M. murinus. In general, we find little evidence for positive selection, with most loci evolving under purifying selection and one locus even showing evidence of functional loss in M. ravelobensis. However, a few loci in M. ravelobensis show potential evidence of positive selection. Using mismatch distributions and expansion models, we infer a more recent colonisation of the habitat by M. murinus than by M. ravelobensis, which most likely speciated in this region earlier on. These findings suggest that the analysis of VR variation is useful in inferring demographic and phylogeographic history of mouse lemurs. In conclusion, this study reveals a substantial heterogeneity over time in selection on VR loci, suggesting that VR evolution is episodic.

Improving Work Outcome in Supported Employment for Serious Mental Illness: Results From 2 Independent Studies of Errorless Learning.

PubMed

Kern, Robert S; Zarate, Roberto; Glynn, Shirley M; Turner, Luana R; Smith, Kellie M; Mitchell, Sharon S; Sugar, Catherine A; Bell, Morris D; Liberman, Robert P; Kopelowicz, Alex; Green, Michael F

2018-01-13

Heterogeneity in work outcomes is common among individuals with serious mental illness (SMI). In 2 studies, we sought to examine the efficacy of adding errorless learning, a behavioral training intervention, to evidence-based supported employment to improve SMI work outcomes. Work behavior problems were targeted for intervention. We also explored associations between early work behavior and job tenure. For both studies (VA: n = 71; community mental health center: n = 91), randomization occurred at the time of job obtainment with participants randomized (1:1) to either errorless learning plus ongoing supported employment or ongoing supported employment alone and then followed for 12 months. Dependent variables included job tenure, work behavior, and hours worked and wages earned per week. For the primary intent-to-treat analyses, data were combined across studies. Findings revealed that participants in the errorless learning plus supported employment group stayed on their jobs significantly longer than those in the supported employment alone group (32.8 vs 25.6 wk). In addition, differential treatment effects favoring errorless learning were found on targeted work behavior problems (50.5% vs 27.4% improvement from baseline to follow-up assessment). There were no other differential treatment effects. For the prediction analyses involving work behavior, social skills explained an additional 18.3% of the variance in job tenure beyond levels of cognition, symptom severity, and past work history. These data support errorless learning as an adjunctive intervention to enhance supported employment outcomes and implicate the relevance of workplace social difficulties as a key impediment to prolonged job tenure. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center 2017.