Maximum Likelihood and Restricted Likelihood Solutions in Multiple-Method Studies

PubMed Central

Rukhin, Andrew L.

2011-01-01

A formulation of the problem of combining data from several sources is discussed in terms of random effects models. The unknown measurement precision is assumed not to be the same for all methods. We investigate maximum likelihood solutions in this model. By representing the likelihood equations as simultaneous polynomial equations, the exact form of the Groebner basis for their stationary points is derived when there are two methods. A parametrization of these solutions which allows their comparison is suggested. A numerical method for solving likelihood equations is outlined, and an alternative to the maximum likelihood method, the restricted maximum likelihood, is studied. In the situation when methods variances are considered to be known an upper bound on the between-method variance is obtained. The relationship between likelihood equations and moment-type equations is also discussed. PMID:26989583

Maximum Likelihood and Restricted Likelihood Solutions in Multiple-Method Studies.

PubMed

Rukhin, Andrew L

2011-01-01

A formulation of the problem of combining data from several sources is discussed in terms of random effects models. The unknown measurement precision is assumed not to be the same for all methods. We investigate maximum likelihood solutions in this model. By representing the likelihood equations as simultaneous polynomial equations, the exact form of the Groebner basis for their stationary points is derived when there are two methods. A parametrization of these solutions which allows their comparison is suggested. A numerical method for solving likelihood equations is outlined, and an alternative to the maximum likelihood method, the restricted maximum likelihood, is studied. In the situation when methods variances are considered to be known an upper bound on the between-method variance is obtained. The relationship between likelihood equations and moment-type equations is also discussed.

Massive optimal data compression and density estimation for scalable, likelihood-free inference in cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsing, Justin; Wandelt, Benjamin; Feeney, Stephen

2018-07-01

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from any likelihood assumptions or approximations. Likelihood-free inference generically involves simulating mock data and comparing to the observed data; this comparison in data space suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires compression of the data to a small number of summary statistics to be tractable. In this paper, we use massive asymptotically optimal data compression to reduce the dimensionality of the data space to just one number per parameter, providing a natural and optimal framework for summary statistic choice for likelihood-free inference. Secondly, we present the first cosmological application of Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference (DELFI), which learns a parametrized model for joint distribution of data and parameters, yielding both the parameter posterior and the model evidence. This approach is conceptually simple, requires less tuning than traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approaches to likelihood-free inference and can give high-fidelity posteriors from orders of magnitude fewer forward simulations. As an additional bonus, it enables parameter inference and Bayesian model comparison simultaneously. We demonstrate DELFI with massive data compression on an analysis of the joint light-curve analysis supernova data, as a simple validation case study. We show that high-fidelity posterior inference is possible for full-scale cosmological data analyses with as few as ˜104 simulations, with substantial scope for further improvement, demonstrating the scalability of likelihood-free inference to large and complex cosmological data sets.

A partial differential equation-based general framework adapted to Rayleigh's, Rician's and Gaussian's distributed noise for restoration and enhancement of magnetic resonance image.

PubMed

Yadav, Ram Bharos; Srivastava, Subodh; Srivastava, Rajeev

2016-01-01

The proposed framework is obtained by casting the noise removal problem into a variational framework. This framework automatically identifies the various types of noise present in the magnetic resonance image and filters them by choosing an appropriate filter. This filter includes two terms: the first term is a data likelihood term and the second term is a prior function. The first term is obtained by minimizing the negative log likelihood of the corresponding probability density functions: Gaussian or Rayleigh or Rician. Further, due to the ill-posedness of the likelihood term, a prior function is needed. This paper examines three partial differential equation based priors which include total variation based prior, anisotropic diffusion based prior, and a complex diffusion (CD) based prior. A regularization parameter is used to balance the trade-off between data fidelity term and prior. The finite difference scheme is used for discretization of the proposed method. The performance analysis and comparative study of the proposed method with other standard methods is presented for brain web dataset at varying noise levels in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio, mean square error, structure similarity index map, and correlation parameter. From the simulation results, it is observed that the proposed framework with CD based prior is performing better in comparison to other priors in consideration.

Comparison of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach and Regression Approach in Detecting Quantitative Trait Lco Using RAPD Markers

Treesearch

Changren Weng; Thomas L. Kubisiak; C. Dana Nelson; James P. Geaghan; Michael Stine

1999-01-01

Single marker regression and single marker maximum likelihood estimation were tied to detect quantitative trait loci (QTLs) controlling the early height growth of longleaf pine and slash pine using a ((longleaf pine x slash pine) x slash pine) BC, population consisting of 83 progeny. Maximum likelihood estimation was found to be more power than regression and could...

Using variable rate models to identify genes under selection in sequence pairs: their validity and limitations for EST sequences.

PubMed

Church, Sheri A; Livingstone, Kevin; Lai, Zhao; Kozik, Alexander; Knapp, Steven J; Michelmore, Richard W; Rieseberg, Loren H

2007-02-01

Using likelihood-based variable selection models, we determined if positive selection was acting on 523 EST sequence pairs from two lineages of sunflower and lettuce. Variable rate models are generally not used for comparisons of sequence pairs due to the limited information and the inaccuracy of estimates of specific substitution rates. However, previous studies have shown that the likelihood ratio test (LRT) is reliable for detecting positive selection, even with low numbers of sequences. These analyses identified 56 genes that show a signature of selection, of which 75% were not identified by simpler models that average selection across codons. Subsequent mapping studies in sunflower show four of five of the positively selected genes identified by these methods mapped to domestication QTLs. We discuss the validity and limitations of using variable rate models for comparisons of sequence pairs, as well as the limitations of using ESTs for identification of positively selected genes.

Validation of DNA-based identification software by computation of pedigree likelihood ratios.

PubMed

Slooten, K

2011-08-01

Disaster victim identification (DVI) can be aided by DNA-evidence, by comparing the DNA-profiles of unidentified individuals with those of surviving relatives. The DNA-evidence is used optimally when such a comparison is done by calculating the appropriate likelihood ratios. Though conceptually simple, the calculations can be quite involved, especially with large pedigrees, precise mutation models etc. In this article we describe a series of test cases designed to check if software designed to calculate such likelihood ratios computes them correctly. The cases include both simple and more complicated pedigrees, among which inbred ones. We show how to calculate the likelihood ratio numerically and algebraically, including a general mutation model and possibility of allelic dropout. In Appendix A we show how to derive such algebraic expressions mathematically. We have set up these cases to validate new software, called Bonaparte, which performs pedigree likelihood ratio calculations in a DVI context. Bonaparte has been developed by SNN Nijmegen (The Netherlands) for the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI). It is available free of charge for non-commercial purposes (see www.dnadvi.nl for details). Commercial licenses can also be obtained. The software uses Bayesian networks and the junction tree algorithm to perform its calculations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative study of diagnostic accuracy of established PCR assays and in-house developed sdaA PCR method for detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in symptomatic patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.

PubMed

Nimesh, Manoj; Joon, Deepali; Pathak, Anil Kumar; Saluja, Daman

2013-11-01

Indian contribution to global burden of tuberculosis is about 26%. In the present study we have developed an in-house PCR assay using primers for sdaA gene of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and evaluated against already established primers devR, IS6110, MPB64, rpoB primers for diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis. Using universal sample preparation (USP) method, DNA was extracted from sputum specimens of 412 symptomatic patients from Delhi, India. The DNA so extracted was used as template for PCR amplification using primers targeting sdaA, devR, IS6110, MPB64 and rpoB genes. Out of 412, 149 specimens were considered positive based on composite reference standard (CRS) criteria. The in-house designed sdaA PCR showed high specificity (96.5%), the high positive likelihood ratio (28), the high sensitivity (95.9%), and the very low negative likelihood ratio (0.04) in comparison to CRS. Based on our results, the sdaA PCR assay can be considered as one of the most reliable diagnostic tests in comparison to other PCR based detection methods. Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of statistical sampling methods with ScannerBit, the GAMBIT scanning module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Gregory D.; McKay, James; Farmer, Ben; Scott, Pat; Roebber, Elinore; Putze, Antje; Conrad, Jan

2017-11-01

We introduce ScannerBit, the statistics and sampling module of the public, open-source global fitting framework GAMBIT. ScannerBit provides a standardised interface to different sampling algorithms, enabling the use and comparison of multiple computational methods for inferring profile likelihoods, Bayesian posteriors, and other statistical quantities. The current version offers random, grid, raster, nested sampling, differential evolution, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and ensemble Monte Carlo samplers. We also announce the release of a new standalone differential evolution sampler, Diver, and describe its design, usage and interface to ScannerBit. We subject Diver and three other samplers (the nested sampler MultiNest, the MCMC GreAT, and the native ScannerBit implementation of the ensemble Monte Carlo algorithm T-Walk) to a battery of statistical tests. For this we use a realistic physical likelihood function, based on the scalar singlet model of dark matter. We examine the performance of each sampler as a function of its adjustable settings, and the dimensionality of the sampling problem. We evaluate performance on four metrics: optimality of the best fit found, completeness in exploring the best-fit region, number of likelihood evaluations, and total runtime. For Bayesian posterior estimation at high resolution, T-Walk provides the most accurate and timely mapping of the full parameter space. For profile likelihood analysis in less than about ten dimensions, we find that Diver and MultiNest score similarly in terms of best fit and speed, outperforming GreAT and T-Walk; in ten or more dimensions, Diver substantially outperforms the other three samplers on all metrics.

GPU-Based Point Cloud Superpositioning for Structural Comparisons of Protein Binding Sites.

PubMed

Leinweber, Matthias; Fober, Thomas; Freisleben, Bernd

2018-01-01

In this paper, we present a novel approach to solve the labeled point cloud superpositioning problem for performing structural comparisons of protein binding sites. The solution is based on a parallel evolution strategy that operates on large populations and runs on GPU hardware. The proposed evolution strategy reduces the likelihood of getting stuck in a local optimum of the multimodal real-valued optimization problem represented by labeled point cloud superpositioning. The performance of the GPU-based parallel evolution strategy is compared to a previously proposed CPU-based sequential approach for labeled point cloud superpositioning, indicating that the GPU-based parallel evolution strategy leads to qualitatively better results and significantly shorter runtimes, with speed improvements of up to a factor of 1,500 for large populations. Binary classification tests based on the ATP, NADH, and FAD protein subsets of CavBase, a database containing putative binding sites, show average classification rate improvements from about 92 percent (CPU) to 96 percent (GPU). Further experiments indicate that the proposed GPU-based labeled point cloud superpositioning approach can be superior to traditional protein comparison approaches based on sequence alignments.

Experimental congruence of interval scale production from paired comparisons and ranking for image evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handley, John C.; Babcock, Jason S.; Pelz, Jeff B.

2003-12-01

Image evaluation tasks are often conducted using paired comparisons or ranking. To elicit interval scales, both methods rely on Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment in which objects closer in psychological space are more often confused in preference comparisons by a putative discriminal random process. It is often debated whether paired comparisons and ranking yield the same interval scales. An experiment was conducted to assess scale production using paired comparisons and ranking. For this experiment a Pioneer Plasma Display and Apple Cinema Display were used for stimulus presentation. Observers performed rank order and paired comparisons tasks on both displays. For each of five scenes, six images were created by manipulating attributes such as lightness, chroma, and hue using six different settings. The intention was to simulate the variability from a set of digital cameras or scanners. Nineteen subjects, (5 females, 14 males) ranging from 19-51 years of age participated in this experiment. Using a paired comparison model and a ranking model, scales were estimated for each display and image combination yielding ten scale pairs, ostensibly measuring the same psychological scale. The Bradley-Terry model was used for the paired comparisons data and the Bradley-Terry-Mallows model was used for the ranking data. Each model was fit using maximum likelihood estimation and assessed using likelihood ratio tests. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were also constructed using likelihood ratios. Model fits for paired comparisons were satisfactory for all scales except those from two image/display pairs; the ranking model fit uniformly well on all data sets. Arguing from overlapping confidence intervals, we conclude that paired comparisons and ranking produce no conflicting decisions regarding ultimate ordering of treatment preferences, but paired comparisons yield greater precision at the expense of lack-of-fit.

Simultaneous Control of Error Rates in fMRI Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Kang, Hakmook; Blume, Jeffrey; Ombao, Hernando; Badre, David

2015-01-01

The key idea of statistical hypothesis testing is to fix, and thereby control, the Type I error (false positive) rate across samples of any size. Multiple comparisons inflate the global (family-wise) Type I error rate and the traditional solution to maintaining control of the error rate is to increase the local (comparison-wise) Type II error (false negative) rates. However, in the analysis of human brain imaging data, the number of comparisons is so large that this solution breaks down: the local Type II error rate ends up being so large that scientifically meaningful analysis is precluded. Here we propose a novel solution to this problem: allow the Type I error rate to converge to zero along with the Type II error rate. It works because when the Type I error rate per comparison is very small, the accumulation (or global) Type I error rate is also small. This solution is achieved by employing the Likelihood paradigm, which uses likelihood ratios to measure the strength of evidence on a voxel-by-voxel basis. In this paper, we provide theoretical and empirical justification for a likelihood approach to the analysis of human brain imaging data. In addition, we present extensive simulations that show the likelihood approach is viable, leading to ‘cleaner’ looking brain maps and operationally superiority (lower average error rate). Finally, we include a case study on cognitive control related activation in the prefrontal cortex of the human brain. PMID:26272730

COSMOABC: Likelihood-free inference via Population Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, E. E. O.; Vitenti, S. D. P.; Penna-Lima, M.; Cisewski, J.; de Souza, R. S.; Trindade, A. M. M.; Cameron, E.; Busti, V. C.; COIN Collaboration

2015-11-01

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables parameter inference for complex physical systems in cases where the true likelihood function is unknown, unavailable, or computationally too expensive. It relies on the forward simulation of mock data and comparison between observed and synthetic catalogues. Here we present COSMOABC, a Python ABC sampler featuring a Population Monte Carlo variation of the original ABC algorithm, which uses an adaptive importance sampling scheme. The code is very flexible and can be easily coupled to an external simulator, while allowing to incorporate arbitrary distance and prior functions. As an example of practical application, we coupled COSMOABC with the NUMCOSMO library and demonstrate how it can be used to estimate posterior probability distributions over cosmological parameters based on measurements of galaxy clusters number counts without computing the likelihood function. COSMOABC is published under the GPLv3 license on PyPI and GitHub and documentation is available at http://goo.gl/SmB8EX.

Pseudo-coherent demodulation for mobile satellite systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divsalar, Dariush; Simon, Marvin K.

1993-01-01

This paper proposes three so-called pseudo-coherent demodulation schemes for use in land mobile satellite channels. The schemes are derived based on maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and detection of an N-symbol observation of the received signal. Simulation results for all three demodulators are presented to allow comparison with the performance of differential PSK (DPSK) and ideal coherent demodulation for various system parameter sets of practical interest.

A Study of Item Bias for Attitudinal Measurement Using Maximum Likelihood Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayberry, Paul W.

A technique for detecting item bias that is responsive to attitudinal measurement considerations is a maximum likelihood factor analysis procedure comparing multivariate factor structures across various subpopulations, often referred to as SIFASP. The SIFASP technique allows for factorial model comparisons in the testing of various hypotheses…

A maximum likelihood convolutional decoder model vs experimental data comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, R. Y.

1979-01-01

This article describes the comparison of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) prediction model and the actual performance of the MCD at the Madrid Deep Space Station. The MCD prediction model is used to develop a subroutine that has been utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program (TAP) to compute the MCD bit error rate for a given signal-to-noise ratio. The results indicate that that the TAP can predict quite well compared to the experimental measurements. An optimal modulation index also can be found through TAP.

Effect of radiance-to-reflectance transformation and atmosphere removal on maximum likelihood classification accuracy of high-dimensional remote sensing data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffbeck, Joseph P.; Landgrebe, David A.

1994-01-01

Many analysis algorithms for high-dimensional remote sensing data require that the remotely sensed radiance spectra be transformed to approximate reflectance to allow comparison with a library of laboratory reflectance spectra. In maximum likelihood classification, however, the remotely sensed spectra are compared to training samples, thus a transformation to reflectance may or may not be helpful. The effect of several radiance-to-reflectance transformations on maximum likelihood classification accuracy is investigated in this paper. We show that the empirical line approach, LOWTRAN7, flat-field correction, single spectrum method, and internal average reflectance are all non-singular affine transformations, and that non-singular affine transformations have no effect on discriminant analysis feature extraction and maximum likelihood classification accuracy. (An affine transformation is a linear transformation with an optional offset.) Since the Atmosphere Removal Program (ATREM) and the log residue method are not affine transformations, experiments with Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were conducted to determine the effect of these transformations on maximum likelihood classification accuracy. The average classification accuracy of the data transformed by ATREM and the log residue method was slightly less than the accuracy of the original radiance data. Since the radiance-to-reflectance transformations allow direct comparison of remotely sensed spectra with laboratory reflectance spectra, they can be quite useful in labeling the training samples required by maximum likelihood classification, but these transformations have only a slight effect or no effect at all on discriminant analysis and maximum likelihood classification accuracy.

An Analysis of Factor Extraction Strategies: A Comparison of the Relative Strengths of Principal Axis, Ordinary Least Squares, and Maximum Likelihood in Research Contexts That Include Both Categorical and Continuous Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coughlin, Kevin B.

2013-01-01

This study is intended to provide researchers with empirically derived guidelines for conducting factor analytic studies in research contexts that include dichotomous and continuous levels of measurement. This study is based on the hypotheses that ordinary least squares (OLS) factor analysis will yield more accurate parameter estimates than…

Refining the relevant population in forensic voice comparison - A response to Hicks et alii (2015) The importance of distinguishing information from evidence/observations when formulating propositions.

PubMed

Morrison, Geoffrey Stewart; Enzinger, Ewald; Zhang, Cuiling

2016-12-01

Hicks et alii [Sci. Just. 55 (2015) 520-525. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2015.06.008] propose that forensic speech scientists not use the accent of the speaker of questioned identity to refine the relevant population. This proposal is based on a lack of understanding of the realities of forensic voice comparison. If it were implemented, it would make data-based forensic voice comparison analysis within the likelihood ratio framework virtually impossible. We argue that it would also lead forensic speech scientists to present invalid unreliable strength of evidence statements, and not allow them to conduct the tests that would make them aware of this problem. Copyright © 2016 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamically heterogenous partitions and phylogenetic inference: an evaluation of analytical strategies with cytochrome b and ND6 gene sequences in cranes.

PubMed

Krajewski, C; Fain, M G; Buckley, L; King, D G

1999-11-01

ki ctes over whether molecular sequence data should be partitioned for phylogenetic analysis often confound two types of heterogeneity among partitions. We distinguish historical heterogeneity (i.e., different partitions have different evolutionary relationships) from dynamic heterogeneity (i.e., different partitions show different patterns of sequence evolution) and explore the impact of the latter on phylogenetic accuracy and precision with a two-gene, mitochondrial data set for cranes. The well-established phylogeny of cranes allows us to contrast tree-based estimates of relevant parameter values with estimates based on pairwise comparisons and to ascertain the effects of incorporating different amounts of process information into phylogenetic estimates. We show that codon positions in the cytochrome b and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 6 genes are dynamically heterogenous under both Poisson and invariable-sites + gamma-rates versions of the F84 model and that heterogeneity includes variation in base composition and transition bias as well as substitution rate. Estimates of transition-bias and relative-rate parameters from pairwise sequence comparisons were comparable to those obtained as tree-based maximum likelihood estimates. Neither rate-category nor mixed-model partitioning strategies resulted in a loss of phylogenetic precision relative to unpartitioned analyses. We suggest that weighted-average distances provide a computationally feasible alternative to direct maximum likelihood estimates of phylogeny for mixed-model analyses of large, dynamically heterogenous data sets. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

An evaluation of percentile and maximum likelihood estimators of weibull paremeters

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Tommy R. Dell

1985-01-01

Two methods of estimating the three-parameter Weibull distribution were evaluated by computer simulation and field data comparison. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLB) with bias correction were calculated with the computer routine FITTER (Bailey 1974); percentile estimators (PCT) were those proposed by Zanakis (1979). The MLB estimators had superior smaller bias and...

Comparison of IRT Likelihood Ratio Test and Logistic Regression DIF Detection Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atar, Burcu; Kamata, Akihito

2011-01-01

The Type I error rates and the power of IRT likelihood ratio test and cumulative logit ordinal logistic regression procedures in detecting differential item functioning (DIF) for polytomously scored items were investigated in this Monte Carlo simulation study. For this purpose, 54 simulation conditions (combinations of 3 sample sizes, 2 sample…

Comparison of standard maximum likelihood classification and polytomous logistic regression used in remote sensing

Treesearch

John Hogland; Nedret Billor; Nathaniel Anderson

2013-01-01

Discriminant analysis, referred to as maximum likelihood classification within popular remote sensing software packages, is a common supervised technique used by analysts. Polytomous logistic regression (PLR), also referred to as multinomial logistic regression, is an alternative classification approach that is less restrictive, more flexible, and easy to interpret. To...

Estimating multilevel logistic regression models when the number of clusters is low: a comparison of different statistical software procedures.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2010-04-22

Multilevel logistic regression models are increasingly being used to analyze clustered data in medical, public health, epidemiological, and educational research. Procedures for estimating the parameters of such models are available in many statistical software packages. There is currently little evidence on the minimum number of clusters necessary to reliably fit multilevel regression models. We conducted a Monte Carlo study to compare the performance of different statistical software procedures for estimating multilevel logistic regression models when the number of clusters was low. We examined procedures available in BUGS, HLM, R, SAS, and Stata. We found that there were qualitative differences in the performance of different software procedures for estimating multilevel logistic models when the number of clusters was low. Among the likelihood-based procedures, estimation methods based on adaptive Gauss-Hermite approximations to the likelihood (glmer in R and xtlogit in Stata) or adaptive Gaussian quadrature (Proc NLMIXED in SAS) tended to have superior performance for estimating variance components when the number of clusters was small, compared to software procedures based on penalized quasi-likelihood. However, only Bayesian estimation with BUGS allowed for accurate estimation of variance components when there were fewer than 10 clusters. For all statistical software procedures, estimation of variance components tended to be poor when there were only five subjects per cluster, regardless of the number of clusters.

Comparison of two weighted integration models for the cueing task: linear and likelihood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimozaki, Steven S.; Eckstein, Miguel P.; Abbey, Craig K.

2003-01-01

In a task in which the observer must detect a signal at two locations, presenting a precue that predicts the location of a signal leads to improved performance with a valid cue (signal location matches the cue), compared to an invalid cue (signal location does not match the cue). The cue validity effect has often been explained with a limited capacity attentional mechanism improving the perceptual quality at the cued location. Alternatively, the cueing effect can also be explained by unlimited capacity models that assume a weighted combination of noisy responses across the two locations. We compare two weighted integration models, a linear model and a sum of weighted likelihoods model based on a Bayesian observer. While qualitatively these models are similar, quantitatively they predict different cue validity effects as the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) increase. To test these models, 3 observers performed in a cued discrimination task of Gaussian targets with an 80% valid precue across a broad range of SNR's. Analysis of a limited capacity attentional switching model was also included and rejected. The sum of weighted likelihoods model best described the psychophysical results, suggesting that human observers approximate a weighted combination of likelihoods, and not a weighted linear combination.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

2012-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

Estimating parameter of Rayleigh distribution by using Maximum Likelihood method and Bayes method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardianti, Fitri; Sutarman

2018-01-01

In this paper, we use Maximum Likelihood estimation and Bayes method under some risk function to estimate parameter of Rayleigh distribution to know the best method. The prior knowledge which used in Bayes method is Jeffrey’s non-informative prior. Maximum likelihood estimation and Bayes method under precautionary loss function, entropy loss function, loss function-L 1 will be compared. We compare these methods by bias and MSE value using R program. After that, the result will be displayed in tables to facilitate the comparisons.

Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vojnovic, Milan; Yun, Seyoung

We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one ormore » more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.« less

A comparison of minimum distance and maximum likelihood techniques for proportion estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodward, W. A.; Schucany, W. R.; Lindsey, H.; Gray, H. L.

1982-01-01

The estimation of mixing proportions P sub 1, P sub 2,...P sub m in the mixture density f(x) = the sum of the series P sub i F sub i(X) with i = 1 to M is often encountered in agricultural remote sensing problems in which case the p sub i's usually represent crop proportions. In these remote sensing applications, component densities f sub i(x) have typically been assumed to be normally distributed, and parameter estimation has been accomplished using maximum likelihood (ML) techniques. Minimum distance (MD) estimation is examined as an alternative to ML where, in this investigation, both procedures are based upon normal components. Results indicate that ML techniques are superior to MD when component distributions actually are normal, while MD estimation provides better estimates than ML under symmetric departures from normality. When component distributions are not symmetric, however, it is seen that neither of these normal based techniques provides satisfactory results.

Comparison of Kasai Autocorrelation and Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Doppler Optical Coherence Tomography

PubMed Central

Chan, Aaron C.; Srinivasan, Vivek J.

2013-01-01

In optical coherence tomography (OCT) and ultrasound, unbiased Doppler frequency estimators with low variance are desirable for blood velocity estimation. Hardware improvements in OCT mean that ever higher acquisition rates are possible, which should also, in principle, improve estimation performance. Paradoxically, however, the widely used Kasai autocorrelation estimator’s performance worsens with increasing acquisition rate. We propose that parametric estimators based on accurate models of noise statistics can offer better performance. We derive a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) based on a simple additive white Gaussian noise model, and show that it can outperform the Kasai autocorrelation estimator. In addition, we also derive the Cramer Rao lower bound (CRLB), and show that the variance of the MLE approaches the CRLB for moderate data lengths and noise levels. We note that the MLE performance improves with longer acquisition time, and remains constant or improves with higher acquisition rates. These qualities may make it a preferred technique as OCT imaging speed continues to improve. Finally, our work motivates the development of more general parametric estimators based on statistical models of decorrelation noise. PMID:23446044

A Penalized Likelihood Framework For High-Dimensional Phylogenetic Comparative Methods And An Application To New-World Monkeys Brain Evolution.

PubMed

Julien, Clavel; Leandro, Aristide; Hélène, Morlon

2018-06-19

Working with high-dimensional phylogenetic comparative datasets is challenging because likelihood-based multivariate methods suffer from low statistical performances as the number of traits p approaches the number of species n and because some computational complications occur when p exceeds n. Alternative phylogenetic comparative methods have recently been proposed to deal with the large p small n scenario but their use and performances are limited. Here we develop a penalized likelihood framework to deal with high-dimensional comparative datasets. We propose various penalizations and methods for selecting the intensity of the penalties. We apply this general framework to the estimation of parameters (the evolutionary trait covariance matrix and parameters of the evolutionary model) and model comparison for the high-dimensional multivariate Brownian (BM), Early-burst (EB), Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) and Pagel's lambda models. We show using simulations that our penalized likelihood approach dramatically improves the estimation of evolutionary trait covariance matrices and model parameters when p approaches n, and allows for their accurate estimation when p equals or exceeds n. In addition, we show that penalized likelihood models can be efficiently compared using Generalized Information Criterion (GIC). We implement these methods, as well as the related estimation of ancestral states and the computation of phylogenetic PCA in the R package RPANDA and mvMORPH. Finally, we illustrate the utility of the new proposed framework by evaluating evolutionary models fit, analyzing integration patterns, and reconstructing evolutionary trajectories for a high-dimensional 3-D dataset of brain shape in the New World monkeys. We find a clear support for an Early-burst model suggesting an early diversification of brain morphology during the ecological radiation of the clade. Penalized likelihood offers an efficient way to deal with high-dimensional multivariate comparative data.

Estimating the variance for heterogeneity in arm-based network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Piepho, Hans-Peter; Madden, Laurence V; Roger, James; Payne, Roger; Williams, Emlyn R

2018-04-19

Network meta-analysis can be implemented by using arm-based or contrast-based models. Here we focus on arm-based models and fit them using generalized linear mixed model procedures. Full maximum likelihood (ML) estimation leads to biased trial-by-treatment interaction variance estimates for heterogeneity. Thus, our objective is to investigate alternative approaches to variance estimation that reduce bias compared with full ML. Specifically, we use penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and hierarchical (h) likelihood approaches. In addition, we consider a novel model modification that yields estimators akin to the residual maximum likelihood estimator for linear mixed models. The proposed methods are compared by simulation, and 2 real datasets are used for illustration. Simulations show that penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood reduce bias and yield satisfactory coverage rates. Sum-to-zero restriction and baseline contrasts for random trial-by-treatment interaction effects, as well as a residual ML-like adjustment, also reduce bias compared with an unconstrained model when ML is used, but coverage rates are not quite as good. Penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood are therefore recommended. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nonparametric spirometry reference values for Hispanic Americans.

PubMed

Glenn, Nancy L; Brown, Vanessa M

2011-02-01

Recent literature sites ethnic origin as a major factor in developing pulmonary function reference values. Extensive studies established reference values for European and African Americans, but not for Hispanic Americans. The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey defines Hispanic as individuals of Spanish speaking cultures. While no group was excluded from the target population, sample size requirements only allowed inclusion of individuals who identified themselves as Mexican Americans. This research constructs nonparametric reference value confidence intervals for Hispanic American pulmonary function. The method is applicable to all ethnicities. We use empirical likelihood confidence intervals to establish normal ranges for reference values. Its major advantage: it is model free, but shares asymptotic properties of model based methods. Statistical comparisons indicate that empirical likelihood interval lengths are comparable to normal theory intervals. Power and efficiency studies agree with previously published theoretical results.

Recovery of Item Parameters in the Nominal Response Model: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wollack, James A.; Bolt, Daniel M.; Cohen, Allan S.; Lee, Young-Sun

2002-01-01

Compared the quality of item parameter estimates for marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the nominal response model using simulation. The quality of item parameter recovery was nearly identical for MML and MCMC, and both methods tended to produce good estimates. (SLD)

A Study of Algorithms for Covariance Structure Analysis with Specific Comparisons Using Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, S. Y.; Jennrich, R. I.

1979-01-01

A variety of algorithms for analyzing covariance structures are considered. Additionally, two methods of estimation, maximum likelihood, and weighted least squares are considered. Comparisons are made between these algorithms and factor analysis. (Author/JKS)

Measuring coherence of computer-assisted likelihood ratio methods.

PubMed

Haraksim, Rudolf; Ramos, Daniel; Meuwly, Didier; Berger, Charles E H

2015-04-01

Measuring the performance of forensic evaluation methods that compute likelihood ratios (LRs) is relevant for both the development and the validation of such methods. A framework of performance characteristics categorized as primary and secondary is introduced in this study to help achieve such development and validation. Ground-truth labelled fingerprint data is used to assess the performance of an example likelihood ratio method in terms of those performance characteristics. Discrimination, calibration, and especially the coherence of this LR method are assessed as a function of the quantity and quality of the trace fingerprint specimen. Assessment of the coherence revealed a weakness of the comparison algorithm in the computer-assisted likelihood ratio method used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abstract: Inference and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Biesanz, Jeremy C

2011-11-30

Models specifying indirect effects (or mediation) and structural equation modeling are both popular in the social sciences. Yet relatively little research has compared methods that test for indirect effects among latent variables and provided precise estimates of the effectiveness of different methods. This simulation study provides an extensive comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals and for making inferences about indirect effects with latent variables. We compared the percentile (PC) bootstrap, bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap, bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrap, likelihood-based confidence intervals (Neale & Miller, 1997), partial posterior predictive (Biesanz, Falk, and Savalei, 2010), and joint significance tests based on Wald tests or likelihood ratio tests. All models included three reflective latent variables representing the independent, dependent, and mediating variables. The design included the following fully crossed conditions: (a) sample size: 100, 200, and 500; (b) number of indicators per latent variable: 3 versus 5; (c) reliability per set of indicators: .7 versus .9; (d) and 16 different path combinations for the indirect effect (α = 0, .14, .39, or .59; and β = 0, .14, .39, or .59). Simulations were performed using a WestGrid cluster of 1680 3.06GHz Intel Xeon processors running R and OpenMx. Results based on 1,000 replications per cell and 2,000 resamples per bootstrap method indicated that the BC and BC a bootstrap methods have inflated Type I error rates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals and the PC bootstrap emerged as methods that adequately control Type I error and have good coverage rates.

Formulating the Rasch Differential Item Functioning Model under the Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation Context and Its Comparison with Mantel-Haenszel Procedure in Short Test and Small Sample Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paek, Insu; Wilson, Mark

2011-01-01

This study elaborates the Rasch differential item functioning (DIF) model formulation under the marginal maximum likelihood estimation context. Also, the Rasch DIF model performance was examined and compared with the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) procedure in small sample and short test length conditions through simulations. The theoretically known…

Fitting distributions to microbial contamination data collected with an unequal probability sampling design.

PubMed

Williams, M S; Ebel, E D; Cao, Y

2013-01-01

The fitting of statistical distributions to microbial sampling data is a common application in quantitative microbiology and risk assessment applications. An underlying assumption of most fitting techniques is that data are collected with simple random sampling, which is often times not the case. This study develops a weighted maximum likelihood estimation framework that is appropriate for microbiological samples that are collected with unequal probabilities of selection. A weighted maximum likelihood estimation framework is proposed for microbiological samples that are collected with unequal probabilities of selection. Two examples, based on the collection of food samples during processing, are provided to demonstrate the method and highlight the magnitude of biases in the maximum likelihood estimator when data are inappropriately treated as a simple random sample. Failure to properly weight samples to account for how data are collected can introduce substantial biases into inferences drawn from the data. The proposed methodology will reduce or eliminate an important source of bias in inferences drawn from the analysis of microbial data. This will also make comparisons between studies and the combination of results from different studies more reliable, which is important for risk assessment applications. © 2012 No claim to US Government works.

RAxML-VI-HPC: maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic analyses with thousands of taxa and mixed models.

PubMed

Stamatakis, Alexandros

2006-11-01

RAxML-VI-HPC (randomized axelerated maximum likelihood for high performance computing) is a sequential and parallel program for inference of large phylogenies with maximum likelihood (ML). Low-level technical optimizations, a modification of the search algorithm, and the use of the GTR+CAT approximation as replacement for GTR+Gamma yield a program that is between 2.7 and 52 times faster than the previous version of RAxML. A large-scale performance comparison with GARLI, PHYML, IQPNNI and MrBayes on real data containing 1000 up to 6722 taxa shows that RAxML requires at least 5.6 times less main memory and yields better trees in similar times than the best competing program (GARLI) on datasets up to 2500 taxa. On datasets > or =4000 taxa it also runs 2-3 times faster than GARLI. RAxML has been parallelized with MPI to conduct parallel multiple bootstraps and inferences on distinct starting trees. The program has been used to compute ML trees on two of the largest alignments to date containing 25,057 (1463 bp) and 2182 (51,089 bp) taxa, respectively. icwww.epfl.ch/~stamatak

A Comparison of Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Dynamic Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation in Fitting Covariance Structure Models to Block-Toeplitz Matrices Representing Single-Subject Multivariate Time-Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

1998-01-01

Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (p-ML) and Asymptotically Distribution Free (ADF) estimation methods for estimating dynamic factor model parameters within a covariance structure framework were compared through a Monte Carlo simulation. Both methods appear to give consistent model parameter estimates, but only ADF gives standard errors and chi-square…

Detecting changes in ultrasound backscattered statistics by using Nakagami parameters: Comparisons of moment-based and maximum likelihood estimators.

PubMed

Lin, Jen-Jen; Cheng, Jung-Yu; Huang, Li-Fei; Lin, Ying-Hsiu; Wan, Yung-Liang; Tsui, Po-Hsiang

2017-05-01

The Nakagami distribution is an approximation useful to the statistics of ultrasound backscattered signals for tissue characterization. Various estimators may affect the Nakagami parameter in the detection of changes in backscattered statistics. In particular, the moment-based estimator (MBE) and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) are two primary methods used to estimate the Nakagami parameters of ultrasound signals. This study explored the effects of the MBE and different MLE approximations on Nakagami parameter estimations. Ultrasound backscattered signals of different scatterer number densities were generated using a simulation model, and phantom experiments and measurements of human liver tissues were also conducted to acquire real backscattered echoes. Envelope signals were employed to estimate the Nakagami parameters by using the MBE, first- and second-order approximations of MLE (MLE 1 and MLE 2 , respectively), and Greenwood approximation (MLE gw ) for comparisons. The simulation results demonstrated that, compared with the MBE and MLE 1 , the MLE 2 and MLE gw enabled more stable parameter estimations with small sample sizes. Notably, the required data length of the envelope signal was 3.6 times the pulse length. The phantom and tissue measurement results also showed that the Nakagami parameters estimated using the MLE 2 and MLE gw could simultaneously differentiate various scatterer concentrations with lower standard deviations and reliably reflect physical meanings associated with the backscattered statistics. Therefore, the MLE 2 and MLE gw are suggested as estimators for the development of Nakagami-based methodologies for ultrasound tissue characterization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2013-03-06

Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model’s marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. Results We here assess the original ‘model-switch’ path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model’s marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. Conclusions We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation. PMID:23497171

A thirteen-year comparison in patterns of attitudes toward counseling.

PubMed

Rule, W R; Gandy, G L

1994-01-01

Two comparable samples of college students were administered the same survey of attitudes toward counseling in 1976 and 1989. Ratings were obtained for (1) likelihood of seeking counseling, (2) likelihood of seeking help from professional and nonprofessional helpers, (3) likelihood of seeking help for differing types of problems, (4) degree of responsibility the professional should assume, and (5) preferences for five of the major counseling approaches (Adlerian, Behavioral, Gestalt, Person-Centered, Rational-Emotive). Consistencies and changing patterns were noted within each year and between years. Findings are discussed in relation to existing research as well as to possible gender and societal determinants.

Relative Deprivation and Adolescent Outcomes in Iceland: A Multilevel Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernburg, Jon Gunnar; Thorlindsson, Thorolfur; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora

2009-01-01

The theory of relative deprivation emphasizes that social comparisons contextualize how people experience impoverishment. An important application of this theory argues that relative deprivation that stems from unfavorable social comparisons can result in anger, normlessness and an increased likelihood of deviant behavior. We test this theory in a…

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moschetti, M. P.; Mueller, C. S.; Boyd, O. S.; Petersen, M. D.

2013-12-01

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood values from all rate models to rank the smoothing methods. We find that adaptively smoothed seismicity models yield better likelihood values than the fixed smoothing models. Holding all other (source and ground motion) models constant, we calculate seismic hazard curves for all points across Alaska on a 0.1 degree grid, using the adaptively smoothed and fixed smoothed seismicity models separately. Because adaptively smoothed models concentrate seismicity near the earthquake epicenters where seismicity rates are high, the corresponding hazard values are higher, locally, but reduced with distance from observed seismicity, relative to the hazard from fixed-bandwidth models. We suggest that adaptively smoothed seismicity models be considered for implementation in the update to the ASHMs because of their improved likelihood estimates relative to fixed smoothing methods; however, concomitant increases in seismic hazard will cause significant changes in regions of high seismicity, such as near the subduction zone, northeast of Kotzebue, and along the NNE trending zone of seismicity in the Alaskan interior.

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles S.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Petersen, Mark D.

2014-01-01

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood values from all rate models to rank the smoothing methods. We find that adaptively smoothed seismicity models yield better likelihood values than the fixed smoothing models. Holding all other (source and ground motion) models constant, we calculate seismic hazard curves for all points across Alaska on a 0.1 degree grid, using the adaptively smoothed and fixed smoothed seismicity models separately. Because adaptively smoothed models concentrate seismicity near the earthquake epicenters where seismicity rates are high, the corresponding hazard values are higher, locally, but reduced with distance from observed seismicity, relative to the hazard from fixed-bandwidth models. We suggest that adaptively smoothed seismicity models be considered for implementation in the update to the ASHMs because of their improved likelihood estimates relative to fixed smoothing methods; however, concomitant increases in seismic hazard will cause significant changes in regions of high seismicity, such as near the subduction zone, northeast of Kotzebue, and along the NNE trending zone of seismicity in the Alaskan interior.

Posterior Predictive Bayesian Phylogenetic Model Selection

PubMed Central

Lewis, Paul O.; Xie, Wangang; Chen, Ming-Hui; Fan, Yu; Kuo, Lynn

2014-01-01

We present two distinctly different posterior predictive approaches to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection and illustrate these methods using examples from green algal protein-coding cpDNA sequences and flowering plant rDNA sequences. The Gelfand–Ghosh (GG) approach allows dissection of an overall measure of model fit into components due to posterior predictive variance (GGp) and goodness-of-fit (GGg), which distinguishes this method from the posterior predictive P-value approach. The conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) method provides a site-specific measure of model fit useful for exploratory analyses and can be combined over sites yielding the log pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) which is useful as an overall measure of model fit. CPO provides a useful cross-validation approach that is computationally efficient, requiring only a sample from the posterior distribution (no additional simulation is required). Both GG and CPO add new perspectives to Bayesian phylogenetic model selection based on the predictive abilities of models and complement the perspective provided by the marginal likelihood (including Bayes Factor comparisons) based solely on the fit of competing models to observed data. [Bayesian; conditional predictive ordinate; CPO; L-measure; LPML; model selection; phylogenetics; posterior predictive.] PMID:24193892

Noise stochastic corrected maximum a posteriori estimator for birefringence imaging using polarization-sensitive optical coherence tomography

PubMed Central

Kasaragod, Deepa; Makita, Shuichi; Hong, Young-Joo; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

2017-01-01

This paper presents a noise-stochastic corrected maximum a posteriori estimator for birefringence imaging using Jones matrix optical coherence tomography. The estimator described in this paper is based on the relationship between probability distribution functions of the measured birefringence and the effective signal to noise ratio (ESNR) as well as the true birefringence and the true ESNR. The Monte Carlo method is used to numerically describe this relationship and adaptive 2D kernel density estimation provides the likelihood for a posteriori estimation of the true birefringence. Improved estimation is shown for the new estimator with stochastic model of ESNR in comparison to the old estimator, both based on the Jones matrix noise model. A comparison with the mean estimator is also done. Numerical simulation validates the superiority of the new estimator. The superior performance of the new estimator was also shown by in vivo measurement of optic nerve head. PMID:28270974

Zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test for drug safety signal detection.

PubMed

Huang, Lan; Zheng, Dan; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram

2017-02-01

In recent decades, numerous methods have been developed for data mining of large drug safety databases, such as Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Adverse Event Reporting System, where data matrices are formed by drugs such as columns and adverse events as rows. Often, a large number of cells in these data matrices have zero cell counts and some of them are "true zeros" indicating that the drug-adverse event pairs cannot occur, and these zero counts are distinguished from the other zero counts that are modeled zero counts and simply indicate that the drug-adverse event pairs have not occurred yet or have not been reported yet. In this paper, a zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is proposed to identify drug-adverse event pairs that have disproportionately high reporting rates, which are also called signals. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test are obtained using the expectation and maximization algorithm. The zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test is also modified to handle the stratified analyses for binary and categorical covariates (e.g. gender and age) in the data. The proposed zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is shown to asymptotically control the type I error and false discovery rate, and its finite sample performance for signal detection is evaluated through a simulation study. The simulation results show that the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method performs similar to Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method when the estimated percentage of true zeros in the database is small. Both the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test and likelihood ratio test methods are applied to six selected drugs, from the 2006 to 2011 Adverse Event Reporting System database, with varying percentages of observed zero-count cells.

A randomized trial to determine the impact on compliance of a psychophysical peripheral cue based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

PubMed

Horton, Rachael Jane; Minniti, Antoinette; Mireylees, Stewart; McEntegart, Damian

2008-11-01

Non-compliance in clinical studies is a significant issue, but causes remain unclear. Utilizing the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion, this study assessed the psychophysical peripheral cue 'Interactive Voice Response System (IVRS) call frequency' on compliance. 71 participants were randomized to once daily (OD), twice daily (BID) or three times daily (TID) call schedules over two weeks. Participants completed 30-item cognitive function tests at each call. Compliance was defined as proportion of expected calls within a narrow window (+/- 30 min around scheduled time), and within a relaxed window (-30 min to +4 h). Data were analyzed by ANOVA and pairwise comparisons adjusted by the Bonferroni correction. There was a relationship between call frequency and compliance. Bonferroni adjusted pairwise comparisons showed significantly higher compliance (p=0.03) for the BID (51.0%) than TID (30.3%) for the narrow window; for the extended window, compliance was higher (p=0.04) with OD (59.5%), than TID (38.4%). The IVRS psychophysical peripheral cue call frequency supported the ELM as a route to persuasion. The results also support OD strategy for optimal compliance. Models suggest specific indicators to enhance compliance with medication dosing and electronic patient diaries to improve health outcomes and data integrity respectively.

Ultrasound assessment of endometrial cavity in perimenopausal women on oral progesterone for abnormal uterine bleeding: comparison of diagnostic accuracy of imaging with hysteroscopy-guided biopsy.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Subhankar; Dasgupta, Shyamal; Sharma, Partha Pratim; Mukherjee, Amitabha; Ghosh, Tarun Kumar

2011-11-01

To investigate the effect of oral progesterone on the accuracy of imaging studies performed to detect endometrial pathology in comparison to hysteroscopy-guided biopsy in perimenopausal women on progesterone treatment for abnormal uterine bleeding. The study population comprised of women aged 40-55 years with complaints of abnormal uterine bleeding who were also undergoing oral progesterone therapy. Women with a uterus ≥ 12 weeks' gestation size, previous abnormal endometrial biopsy, cervical lesion on speculum examination, abnormal Pap smear, active pelvic infection, adnexal mass on clinical examination or during ultrasound scan and a positive pregnancy test were excluded. A transvaginal ultrasound followed by saline infusion sonography were done. On the following day, a hysteroscopy followed by a guided biopsy of the endometrium or any endometrial lesion was performed. Comparison between the results of the imaging study with the hysteroscopy and guided biopsy was done. The final analysis included 83 patients. For detection of overall pathology, polyp and fibroid transvaginal ultrasound had a positive likelihood ratio of 1.65, 5.45 and 5.4, respectively, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.47, 0.6 and 0.43, respectively. For detection of overall pathology, polyp and fibroid saline infusion sonography had a positive likelihood ratio of 4.4, 5.35 and 11.8, respectively, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.3, 0.2 and 0.15, respectively. In perimenopausal women on oral progesterone therapy for abnormal uterine bleeding, imaging studies cannot be considered as an accurate method for diagnosing endometrial pathology when compared to hysteroscopy and guided biopsy. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2011 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Feasibility of a skills-based substance abuse prevention program following traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Vungkhanching, Martha; Heinemann, Allen W; Langley, Mervin J; Ridgely, Mary; Kramer, Karen M

2007-01-01

To demonstrate the feasibility of a skills-based substance abuse prevention counseling program in a community setting for adults who sustained traumatic brain injury. Convenience sample of 117 participants (mean age=35 years) with preinjury history of alcohol or other drug use. Intervention group participants (n=36) from 3 vocational rehabilitation programs; a no-intervention comparison group (n=81) from an outpatient rehabilitation service. 12 individual counseling sessions featuring skills-based intervention. Changes in self-reported alcohol and other drug use, coping skillfulness, affect, and employment status from baseline to 9 months postintervention. Significant differences were noted at baseline for the intervention and comparison groups on ethnicity, time postinjury, marital status, and employment (P<.05). At the 9-month follow-up, the intervention group participants achieved a statistically significant decrease in alcohol and drug use (P<.05), increase in coping skillfulness (P<.01), and increased likelihood of maintaining employment (P<.01) relative to the comparison group. Controlling for baseline-adjusted means for the intervention and comparison groups, a statistically significant group difference in adjusted change was noted; the intervention group participants reported lower negative affect at the 9-month follow-up assessment (P<.05). A skills-based intervention provides a promising approach to promoting abstinence from all substances and increasing readiness for employment for adults with traumatic brain injuries in outpatient settings.

Performance of the hybrid MLPNN based VE (hMLPNN-VE) for the nonlinear PMR channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongsathan, Rati; Phakphisut, Watid; Supnithi, Pornchai

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a hybrid of multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) and Volterra equalizer (VE) denoted hMLPNN-VE in nonlinear perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) channels. The proposed detector integrates the nonlinear product terms of the delayed readback signals generated from the VE into the nonlinear processing of the MLPNN. The detection performance comparison is evaluated in terms of the tradeoff between the bit error rate (BER), complexity and reliability for a nonlinear Volterra channel at high normalized recording density. The proposed hMLPNN-VE outperforms MLPNN based equalizer (MLPNNE), VE and the conventional partial response maximum likelihood (PRML) detector.

A Non-parametric Cutout Index for Robust Evaluation of Identified Proteins*

PubMed Central

Serang, Oliver; Paulo, Joao; Steen, Hanno; Steen, Judith A.

2013-01-01

This paper proposes a novel, automated method for evaluating sets of proteins identified using mass spectrometry. The remaining peptide-spectrum match score distributions of protein sets are compared to an empirical absent peptide-spectrum match score distribution, and a Bayesian non-parametric method reminiscent of the Dirichlet process is presented to accurately perform this comparison. Thus, for a given protein set, the process computes the likelihood that the proteins identified are correctly identified. First, the method is used to evaluate protein sets chosen using different protein-level false discovery rate (FDR) thresholds, assigning each protein set a likelihood. The protein set assigned the highest likelihood is used to choose a non-arbitrary protein-level FDR threshold. Because the method can be used to evaluate any protein identification strategy (and is not limited to mere comparisons of different FDR thresholds), we subsequently use the method to compare and evaluate multiple simple methods for merging peptide evidence over replicate experiments. The general statistical approach can be applied to other types of data (e.g. RNA sequencing) and generalizes to multivariate problems. PMID:23292186

Maximum likelihood solution for inclination-only data in paleomagnetism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arason, P.; Levi, S.

2010-08-01

We have developed a new robust maximum likelihood method for estimating the unbiased mean inclination from inclination-only data. In paleomagnetic analysis, the arithmetic mean of inclination-only data is known to introduce a shallowing bias. Several methods have been introduced to estimate the unbiased mean inclination of inclination-only data together with measures of the dispersion. Some inclination-only methods were designed to maximize the likelihood function of the marginal Fisher distribution. However, the exact analytical form of the maximum likelihood function is fairly complicated, and all the methods require various assumptions and approximations that are often inappropriate. For some steep and dispersed data sets, these methods provide estimates that are significantly displaced from the peak of the likelihood function to systematically shallower inclination. The problem locating the maximum of the likelihood function is partly due to difficulties in accurately evaluating the function for all values of interest, because some elements of the likelihood function increase exponentially as precision parameters increase, leading to numerical instabilities. In this study, we succeeded in analytically cancelling exponential elements from the log-likelihood function, and we are now able to calculate its value anywhere in the parameter space and for any inclination-only data set. Furthermore, we can now calculate the partial derivatives of the log-likelihood function with desired accuracy, and locate the maximum likelihood without the assumptions required by previous methods. To assess the reliability and accuracy of our method, we generated large numbers of random Fisher-distributed data sets, for which we calculated mean inclinations and precision parameters. The comparisons show that our new robust Arason-Levi maximum likelihood method is the most reliable, and the mean inclination estimates are the least biased towards shallow values.

Exploring a potential energy surface by machine learning for characterizing atomic transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanamori, Kenta; Toyoura, Kazuaki; Honda, Junya; Hattori, Kazuki; Seko, Atsuto; Karasuyama, Masayuki; Shitara, Kazuki; Shiga, Motoki; Kuwabara, Akihide; Takeuchi, Ichiro

2018-03-01

We propose a machine-learning method for evaluating the potential barrier governing atomic transport based on the preferential selection of dominant points for atomic transport. The proposed method generates numerous random samples of the entire potential energy surface (PES) from a probabilistic Gaussian process model of the PES, which enables defining the likelihood of the dominant points. The robustness and efficiency of the method are demonstrated on a dozen model cases for proton diffusion in oxides, in comparison with a conventional nudge elastic band method.

A Bayesian approach to parameter and reliability estimation in the Poisson distribution.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canavos, G. C.

1972-01-01

For life testing procedures, a Bayesian analysis is developed with respect to a random intensity parameter in the Poisson distribution. Bayes estimators are derived for the Poisson parameter and the reliability function based on uniform and gamma prior distributions of that parameter. A Monte Carlo procedure is implemented to make possible an empirical mean-squared error comparison between Bayes and existing minimum variance unbiased, as well as maximum likelihood, estimators. As expected, the Bayes estimators have mean-squared errors that are appreciably smaller than those of the other two.

Multivariate Phylogenetic Comparative Methods: Evaluations, Comparisons, and Recommendations.

PubMed

Adams, Dean C; Collyer, Michael L

2018-01-01

Recent years have seen increased interest in phylogenetic comparative analyses of multivariate data sets, but to date the varied proposed approaches have not been extensively examined. Here we review the mathematical properties required of any multivariate method, and specifically evaluate existing multivariate phylogenetic comparative methods in this context. Phylogenetic comparative methods based on the full multivariate likelihood are robust to levels of covariation among trait dimensions and are insensitive to the orientation of the data set, but display increasing model misspecification as the number of trait dimensions increases. This is because the expected evolutionary covariance matrix (V) used in the likelihood calculations becomes more ill-conditioned as trait dimensionality increases, and as evolutionary models become more complex. Thus, these approaches are only appropriate for data sets with few traits and many species. Methods that summarize patterns across trait dimensions treated separately (e.g., SURFACE) incorrectly assume independence among trait dimensions, resulting in nearly a 100% model misspecification rate. Methods using pairwise composite likelihood are highly sensitive to levels of trait covariation, the orientation of the data set, and the number of trait dimensions. The consequences of these debilitating deficiencies are that a user can arrive at differing statistical conclusions, and therefore biological inferences, simply from a dataspace rotation, like principal component analysis. By contrast, algebraic generalizations of the standard phylogenetic comparative toolkit that use the trace of covariance matrices are insensitive to levels of trait covariation, the number of trait dimensions, and the orientation of the data set. Further, when appropriate permutation tests are used, these approaches display acceptable Type I error and statistical power. We conclude that methods summarizing information across trait dimensions, as well as pairwise composite likelihood methods should be avoided, whereas algebraic generalizations of the phylogenetic comparative toolkit provide a useful means of assessing macroevolutionary patterns in multivariate data. Finally, we discuss areas in which multivariate phylogenetic comparative methods are still in need of future development; namely highly multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models and approaches for multivariate evolutionary model comparisons. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Systematic Biology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

MODEL-BASED CLUSTERING FOR CLASSIFICATION OF AQUATIC SYSTEMS AND DIAGNOSIS OF ECOLOGICAL STRESS

EPA Science Inventory

Clustering approaches were developed using the classification likelihood, the mixture likelihood, and also using a randomization approach with a model index. Using a clustering approach based on the mixture and classification likelihoods, we have developed an algorithm that...

Return to military weight standards after pregnancy in active duty working women: comparison of marine corps vs. navy.

PubMed

Greer, Joy A; Zelig, Craig M; Choi, Kenny K; Rankins, Nicole Calloway; Chauhan, Suneet P; Magann, Everett F

2012-08-01

To compare the likelihood of being within weight standards before and after pregnancy between United States Marine Corps (USMC) and Navy (USN) active duty women (ADW). ADW with singleton gestations who delivered at a USMC base were followed for 6 months to determine likelihood of returning to military weight standards. Odds ratio (OR), adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated; p < 0.05 was considered significant. Similar proportions of USN and USMC ADW were within body weight standards one year prior to pregnancy (79%, 97%) and at first prenatal visit (69%, 96%), respectively. However, USMC ADW were significantly more likely to be within body weight standards at 3 months (AOR 4.30,1.28-14.43) and 6 months after delivery (AOR 9.94, 1.53-64.52) than USN ADW. Weight gained during pregnancy did not differ significantly for the two groups (40.4 lbs vs 44.2 lbs, p = 0.163). The likelihood of spontaneous vaginal delivery was significantly higher (OR 2.52, 1.20-5.27) and the mean birth weight was significantly lower (p = 0.0036) among USMC ADW as compared to USN ADW. Being within weight standards differs significantly for USMC and USN ADW after pregnancy.

Clarifying the Hubble constant tension with a Bayesian hierarchical model of the local distance ladder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feeney, Stephen M.; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Dalmasso, Niccolò

2018-05-01

Estimates of the Hubble constant, H0, from the local distance ladder and from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) are discrepant at the ˜3σ level, indicating a potential issue with the standard Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. A probabilistic (i.e. Bayesian) interpretation of this tension requires a model comparison calculation, which in turn depends strongly on the tails of the H0 likelihoods. Evaluating the tails of the local H0 likelihood requires the use of non-Gaussian distributions to faithfully represent anchor likelihoods and outliers, and simultaneous fitting of the complete distance-ladder data set to ensure correct uncertainty propagation. We have hence developed a Bayesian hierarchical model of the full distance ladder that does not rely on Gaussian distributions and allows outliers to be modelled without arbitrary data cuts. Marginalizing over the full ˜3000-parameter joint posterior distribution, we find H0 = (72.72 ± 1.67) km s-1 Mpc-1 when applied to the outlier-cleaned Riess et al. data, and (73.15 ± 1.78) km s-1 Mpc-1 with supernova outliers reintroduced (the pre-cut Cepheid data set is not available). Using our precise evaluation of the tails of the H0 likelihood, we apply Bayesian model comparison to assess the evidence for deviation from ΛCDM given the distance-ladder and CMB data. The odds against ΛCDM are at worst ˜10:1 when considering the Planck 2015 XIII data, regardless of outlier treatment, considerably less dramatic than naïvely implied by the 2.8σ discrepancy. These odds become ˜60:1 when an approximation to the more-discrepant Planck Intermediate XLVI likelihood is included.

A computational framework to characterize and compare the geometry of coronary networks.

PubMed

Bulant, C A; Blanco, P J; Lima, T P; Assunção, A N; Liberato, G; Parga, J R; Ávila, L F R; Pereira, A C; Feijóo, R A; Lemos, P A

2017-03-01

This work presents a computational framework to perform a systematic and comprehensive assessment of the morphometry of coronary arteries from in vivo medical images. The methodology embraces image segmentation, arterial vessel representation, characterization and comparison, data storage, and finally analysis. Validation is performed using a sample of 48 patients. Data mining of morphometric information of several coronary arteries is presented. Results agree to medical reports in terms of basic geometric and anatomical variables. Concerning geometric descriptors, inter-artery and intra-artery correlations are studied. Data reported here can be useful for the construction and setup of blood flow models of the coronary circulation. Finally, as an application example, similarity criterion to assess vasculature likelihood based on geometric features is presented and used to test geometric similarity among sibling patients. Results indicate that likelihood, measured through geometric descriptors, is stronger between siblings compared with non-relative patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship Between Active Learning Methodologies and Community College Students' STEM Course Grades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark Lesko, Cherish Christina

Active learning methodologies (ALM) are associated with student success, but little research on this topic has been pursued at the community college level. At a local community college, students in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) courses exhibited lower than average grades. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the use of ALM predicted STEM course grades while controlling for academic discipline, course level, and class size. The theoretical framework was Vygotsky's social constructivism. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were performed on data collected through an anonymous survey of 74 instructors of 272 courses during the 2016 fall semester. Results indicated that students were more likely to achieve passing grades when instructors employed in-class, highly structured activities, and writing-based ALM, and were less likely to achieve passing grades when instructors employed project-based or online ALM. The odds ratios indicated strong positive effects (greater likelihoods of receiving As, Bs, or Cs in comparison to the grade of F) for writing-based ALM (39.1-43.3%, 95% CI [10.7-80.3%]), highly structured activities (16.4-22.2%, 95% CI [1.8-33.7%]), and in-class ALM (5.0-9.0%, 95% CI [0.6-13.8%]). Project-based and online ALM showed negative effects (lower likelihoods of receiving As, Bs, or Cs in comparison to the grade of F) with odds ratios of 15.7-20.9%, 95% CI [9.7-30.6%] and 16.1-20.4%, 95% CI [5.9-25.2%] respectively. A white paper was developed with recommendations for faculty development, computer skills assessment and training, and active research on writing-based ALM. Improving student grades and STEM course completion rates could lead to higher graduation rates and lower college costs for at-risk students by reducing course repetition and time to degree completion.

Likelihood-based gene annotations for gap filling and quality assessment in genome-scale metabolic models

DOE PAGES

Benedict, Matthew N.; Mundy, Michael B.; Henry, Christopher S.; ...

2014-10-16

Genome-scale metabolic models provide a powerful means to harness information from genomes to deepen biological insights. With exponentially increasing sequencing capacity, there is an enormous need for automated reconstruction techniques that can provide more accurate models in a short time frame. Current methods for automated metabolic network reconstruction rely on gene and reaction annotations to build draft metabolic networks and algorithms to fill gaps in these networks. However, automated reconstruction is hampered by database inconsistencies, incorrect annotations, and gap filling largely without considering genomic information. Here we develop an approach for applying genomic information to predict alternative functions for genesmore » and estimate their likelihoods from sequence homology. We show that computed likelihood values were significantly higher for annotations found in manually curated metabolic networks than those that were not. We then apply these alternative functional predictions to estimate reaction likelihoods, which are used in a new gap filling approach called likelihood-based gap filling to predict more genomically consistent solutions. To validate the likelihood-based gap filling approach, we applied it to models where essential pathways were removed, finding that likelihood-based gap filling identified more biologically relevant solutions than parsimony-based gap filling approaches. We also demonstrate that models gap filled using likelihood-based gap filling provide greater coverage and genomic consistency with metabolic gene functions compared to parsimony-based approaches. Interestingly, despite these findings, we found that likelihoods did not significantly affect consistency of gap filled models with Biolog and knockout lethality data. This indicates that the phenotype data alone cannot necessarily be used to discriminate between alternative solutions for gap filling and therefore, that the use of other information is necessary to obtain a more accurate network. All described workflows are implemented as part of the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) and are publicly available via API or command-line web interface.« less

Likelihood-Based Gene Annotations for Gap Filling and Quality Assessment in Genome-Scale Metabolic Models

PubMed Central

Benedict, Matthew N.; Mundy, Michael B.; Henry, Christopher S.; Chia, Nicholas; Price, Nathan D.

2014-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic models provide a powerful means to harness information from genomes to deepen biological insights. With exponentially increasing sequencing capacity, there is an enormous need for automated reconstruction techniques that can provide more accurate models in a short time frame. Current methods for automated metabolic network reconstruction rely on gene and reaction annotations to build draft metabolic networks and algorithms to fill gaps in these networks. However, automated reconstruction is hampered by database inconsistencies, incorrect annotations, and gap filling largely without considering genomic information. Here we develop an approach for applying genomic information to predict alternative functions for genes and estimate their likelihoods from sequence homology. We show that computed likelihood values were significantly higher for annotations found in manually curated metabolic networks than those that were not. We then apply these alternative functional predictions to estimate reaction likelihoods, which are used in a new gap filling approach called likelihood-based gap filling to predict more genomically consistent solutions. To validate the likelihood-based gap filling approach, we applied it to models where essential pathways were removed, finding that likelihood-based gap filling identified more biologically relevant solutions than parsimony-based gap filling approaches. We also demonstrate that models gap filled using likelihood-based gap filling provide greater coverage and genomic consistency with metabolic gene functions compared to parsimony-based approaches. Interestingly, despite these findings, we found that likelihoods did not significantly affect consistency of gap filled models with Biolog and knockout lethality data. This indicates that the phenotype data alone cannot necessarily be used to discriminate between alternative solutions for gap filling and therefore, that the use of other information is necessary to obtain a more accurate network. All described workflows are implemented as part of the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) and are publicly available via API or command-line web interface. PMID:25329157

Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.

2014-12-01

The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify treating uncertainty along those two dimensions, and indicate how this can be avoided.

Clinicians' perceptions of the benefits and harms of prostate and colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Elstad, Emily A; Sutkowi-Hemstreet, Anne; Sheridan, Stacey L; Vu, Maihan; Harris, Russell; Reyna, Valerie F; Rini, Christine; Earp, Jo Anne; Brewer, Noel T

2015-05-01

Clinicians' perceptions of screening benefits and harms influence their recommendations, which in turn shape patients' screening decisions. We sought to understand clinicians' perceptions of the benefits and harms of cancer screening by comparing 2 screening tests that differ in their balance of potential benefits to harms: colonoscopy, which results in net benefit for many adults, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, which may do more harm than good. In this cross-sectional study, 126 clinicians at 24 family/internal medicine practices completed surveys in which they listed and rated the magnitude of colonoscopy and PSA testing benefits and harms for a hypothetical 70-year-old male patient and then estimated the likelihood that these tests would cause harm and lengthen the life of 100 similar men in the next 10 years. We tested the hypothesis that the availability heuristic would explain the association of screening test to perceived likelihood of benefit/harm and a competing hypothesis that clinicians' gist of screening tests as good or bad would mediate this association. Clinicians perceived PSA testing to have a greater likelihood of harm and a lower likelihood of lengthening life relative to colonoscopy. Consistent with our gist hypothesis, these associations were mediated by clinicians' gist of screening (balance of perceived benefits to perceived harms). Generalizability beyond academic clinicians remains to be established. Targeting clinicians' gist of screening, for example through graphical displays that allow clinicians to make gist-based relative magnitude comparisons, may influence their risk perception and possibly reduce overrecommendation of screening. © The Author(s) 2015.

A Naturalistic Examination of Social Comparisons and Disordered Eating Thoughts, Urges, and Behaviors in College Women

PubMed Central

Fitzsimmons-Craft, Ellen E.; Ciao, Anna C.; Accurso, Erin C.

2015-01-01

Objective We examined the effects of body, eating, and exercise social comparisons on prospective disordered eating thoughts and urges (i.e., restriction thoughts, exercise thoughts, vomiting thoughts, binge eating urges) and behaviors (i.e., restriction attempts, exercising for weight/shape reasons, vomiting, binge eating) among college women using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Method Participants were 232 college women who completed a two-week EMA protocol, in which they used their personal electronic devices to answer questions three times per day. Generalized estimating equation models were used to assess body, eating, and exercise comparisons as predictors of disordered eating thoughts, urges, and behaviors at the next report, adjusting for body dissatisfaction, negative affect, and the disordered eating thought/urge/behavior at the prior report, as well as body mass index. Results Body comparisons prospectively predicted more intense levels of certain disordered eating thoughts (i.e., thoughts about restriction and exercise). Eating comparisons prospectively predicted an increased likelihood of subsequent engagement in all disordered eating behaviors examined except vomiting. Exercise comparisons prospectively predicted less intense thoughts about exercise and an increased likelihood of subsequent vomiting. Discussion Social comparisons are associated with later disordered eating thoughts and behaviors in the natural environment and may need to be specifically targeted in eating disorder prevention and intervention efforts. Targeting body comparisons may be helpful in terms of reducing disordered eating thoughts, but eating and exercise comparisons are also important and may need to be addressed in order to decrease engagement in actual disordered eating behaviors. PMID:26610301

Symptoms and medical conditions in Australian veterans of the 1991 Gulf War: relation to immunisations and other Gulf War exposures.

PubMed

Kelsall, H L; Sim, M R; Forbes, A B; Glass, D C; McKenzie, D P; Ikin, J F; Abramson, M J; Blizzard, L; Ittak, P

2004-12-01

To investigate whether Australian Gulf War veterans have a higher than expected prevalence of recent symptoms and medical conditions that were first diagnosed in the period following the 1991 Gulf War; and if so, whether these effects were associated with exposures and experiences that occurred in the Gulf War. Cross-sectional study of 1456 Australian Gulf War veterans and a comparison group who were in operational units at the time of the Gulf War, but were not deployed to that conflict (n = 1588). A postal questionnaire was administered and the likelihood of the diagnosis of self-reported medical conditions was assessed and rated by a medical practitioner. Gulf War veterans had a higher prevalence of all self-reported health symptoms than the comparison group, and more of the Gulf War veterans had severe symptoms. Increased symptom reporting was associated with several exposures, including having more than 10 immunisations, pyridostigmine bromide tablets, anti-biological warfare tablets, pesticides, insect repellents, reportedly being in a chemical weapons area, and stressful military service experiences in a strong dose-response relation. Gulf War veterans reported psychological (particularly post-traumatic stress disorder), skin, eye, and sinus conditions first diagnosed in 1991 or later more commonly than the comparison group. Over 90% of medical conditions reported by both study groups were rated by a medical practitioner as having a high likelihood of diagnosis. More than 10 years after the 1991 Gulf War, Australian veterans self-report all symptoms and some medical conditions more commonly than the comparison group. Further analysis of the severity of symptoms and likelihood of the diagnosis of medical conditions suggested that these findings are not due to over-reporting or to participation bias.

Symptoms and medical conditions in Australian veterans of the 1991 Gulf War: relation to immunisations and other Gulf War exposures

PubMed Central

Kelsall, H; Sim, M; Forbes, A; Glass, D; McKenzie, D; Ikin, J; Abramson, M; Blizzard, L; Ittak, P

2004-01-01

Aims: To investigate whether Australian Gulf War veterans have a higher than expected prevalence of recent symptoms and medical conditions that were first diagnosed in the period following the 1991 Gulf War; and if so, whether these effects were associated with exposures and experiences that occurred in the Gulf War. Methods: Cross-sectional study of 1456 Australian Gulf War veterans and a comparison group who were in operational units at the time of the Gulf War, but were not deployed to that conflict (n = 1588). A postal questionnaire was administered and the likelihood of the diagnosis of self-reported medical conditions was assessed and rated by a medical practitioner. Results: Gulf War veterans had a higher prevalence of all self-reported health symptoms than the comparison group, and more of the Gulf War veterans had severe symptoms. Increased symptom reporting was associated with several exposures, including having more than 10 immunisations, pyridostigmine bromide tablets, anti-biological warfare tablets, pesticides, insect repellents, reportedly being in a chemical weapons area, and stressful military service experiences in a strong dose-response relation. Gulf War veterans reported psychological (particularly post-traumatic stress disorder), skin, eye, and sinus conditions first diagnosed in 1991 or later more commonly than the comparison group. Over 90% of medical conditions reported by both study groups were rated by a medical practitioner as having a high likelihood of diagnosis. Conclusion: More than 10 years after the 1991 Gulf War, Australian veterans self-report all symptoms and some medical conditions more commonly than the comparison group. Further analysis of the severity of symptoms and likelihood of the diagnosis of medical conditions suggested that these findings are not due to over-reporting or to participation bias. PMID:15550607

Computational Software to Fit Seismic Data Using Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Models and Modeling Performance Comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, A.

2016-12-01

Modern earthquake catalogs are often analyzed using spatial-temporal point process models such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). My work implements three of the homogeneous ETAS models described in Ogata (1998). With a model's log-likelihood function, my software finds the Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLEs) of the model's parameters to estimate the homogeneous background rate and the temporal and spatial parameters that govern triggering effects. EM-algorithm is employed for its advantages of stability and robustness (Veen and Schoenberg, 2008). My work also presents comparisons among the three models in robustness, convergence speed, and implementations from theory to computing practice. Up-to-date regional seismic data of seismic active areas such as Southern California and Japan are used to demonstrate the comparisons. Data analysis has been done using computer languages Java and R. Java has the advantages of being strong-typed and easiness of controlling memory resources, while R has the advantages of having numerous available functions in statistical computing. Comparisons are also made between the two programming languages in convergence and stability, computational speed, and easiness of implementation. Issues that may affect convergence such as spatial shapes are discussed.

Cosmological parameters from a re-analysis of the WMAP 7 year low-resolution maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finelli, F.; De Rosa, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Paoletti, D.

2013-06-01

Cosmological parameters from Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 7 year data are re-analysed by substituting a pixel-based likelihood estimator to the one delivered publicly by the WMAP team. Our pixel-based estimator handles exactly intensity and polarization in a joint manner, allowing us to use low-resolution maps and noise covariance matrices in T, Q, U at the same resolution, which in this work is 3.6°. We describe the features and the performances of the code implementing our pixel-based likelihood estimator. We perform a battery of tests on the application of our pixel-based likelihood routine to WMAP publicly available low-resolution foreground-cleaned products, in combination with the WMAP high-ℓ likelihood, reporting the differences on cosmological parameters evaluated by the full WMAP likelihood public package. The differences are not only due to the treatment of polarization, but also to the marginalization over monopole and dipole uncertainties present in the WMAP pixel likelihood code for temperature. The credible central value for the cosmological parameters change below the 1σ level with respect to the evaluation by the full WMAP 7 year likelihood code, with the largest difference in a shift to smaller values of the scalar spectral index nS.

Tests for detecting overdispersion in models with measurement error in covariates.

PubMed

Yang, Yingsi; Wong, Man Yu

2015-11-30

Measurement error in covariates can affect the accuracy in count data modeling and analysis. In overdispersion identification, the true mean-variance relationship can be obscured under the influence of measurement error in covariates. In this paper, we propose three tests for detecting overdispersion when covariates are measured with error: a modified score test and two score tests based on the proposed approximate likelihood and quasi-likelihood, respectively. The proposed approximate likelihood is derived under the classical measurement error model, and the resulting approximate maximum likelihood estimator is shown to have superior efficiency. Simulation results also show that the score test based on approximate likelihood outperforms the test based on quasi-likelihood and other alternatives in terms of empirical power. By analyzing a real dataset containing the health-related quality-of-life measurements of a particular group of patients, we demonstrate the importance of the proposed methods by showing that the analyses with and without measurement error correction yield significantly different results. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multistage degradation modeling for BLDC motor based on Wiener process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Qingyang; Li, Xiaogang; Gao, Yuankai

2018-05-01

Brushless DC motors are widely used, and their working temperatures, regarding as degradation processes, are nonlinear and multistage. It is necessary to establish a nonlinear degradation model. In this research, our study was based on accelerated degradation data of motors, which are their working temperatures. A multistage Wiener model was established by using the transition function to modify linear model. The normal weighted average filter (Gauss filter) was used to improve the results of estimation for the model parameters. Then, to maximize likelihood function for parameter estimation, we used numerical optimization method- the simplex method for cycle calculation. Finally, the modeling results show that the degradation mechanism changes during the degradation of the motor with high speed. The effectiveness and rationality of model are verified by comparison of the life distribution with widely used nonlinear Wiener model, as well as a comparison of QQ plots for residual. Finally, predictions for motor life are gained by life distributions in different times calculated by multistage model.

Fisher's method of scoring in statistical image reconstruction: comparison of Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel iterative schemes.

PubMed

Hudson, H M; Ma, J; Green, P

1994-01-01

Many algorithms for medical image reconstruction adopt versions of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. In this approach, parameter estimates are obtained which maximize a complete data likelihood or penalized likelihood, in each iteration. Implicitly (and sometimes explicitly) penalized algorithms require smoothing of the current reconstruction in the image domain as part of their iteration scheme. In this paper, we discuss alternatives to EM which adapt Fisher's method of scoring (FS) and other methods for direct maximization of the incomplete data likelihood. Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel methods for non-linear optimization provide efficient algorithms applying FS in tomography. One approach uses smoothed projection data in its iterations. We investigate the convergence of Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel algorithms with clinical tomographic projection data.

The likelihood ratio as a random variable for linked markers in kinship analysis.

PubMed

Egeland, Thore; Slooten, Klaas

2016-11-01

The likelihood ratio is the fundamental quantity that summarizes the evidence in forensic cases. Therefore, it is important to understand the theoretical properties of this statistic. This paper is the last in a series of three, and the first to study linked markers. We show that for all non-inbred pairwise kinship comparisons, the expected likelihood ratio in favor of a type of relatedness depends on the allele frequencies only via the number of alleles, also for linked markers, and also if the true relationship is another one than is tested for by the likelihood ratio. Exact expressions for the expectation and variance are derived for all these cases. Furthermore, we show that the expected likelihood ratio is a non-increasing function if the recombination rate increases between 0 and 0.5 when the actual relationship is the one investigated by the LR. Besides being of theoretical interest, exact expressions such as obtained here can be used for software validation as they allow to verify the correctness up to arbitrary precision. The paper also presents results and advice of practical importance. For example, we argue that the logarithm of the likelihood ratio behaves in a fundamentally different way than the likelihood ratio itself in terms of expectation and variance, in agreement with its interpretation as weight of evidence. Equipped with the results presented and freely available software, one may check calculations and software and also do power calculations.

Improving and Evaluating Nested Sampling Algorithm for Marginal Likelihood Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Zeng, X.; Wu, J.; Wang, D.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

With the growing impacts of climate change and human activities on the cycle of water resources, an increasing number of researches focus on the quantification of modeling uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a popular framework for quantifying conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. The ensemble prediction is generated by combining each plausible model's prediction, and each model is attached with a model weight which is determined by model's prior weight and marginal likelihood. Thus, the estimation of model's marginal likelihood is crucial for reliable and accurate BMA prediction. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed method for marginal likelihood estimation. The process of NSE is accomplished by searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm is often used for local sampling. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complicated parameter space. For improving the efficiency of NSE, it could be ideal to incorporate the robust and efficient sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling of NSE. The comparison results demonstrated that the improved NSE could improve the efficiency of marginal likelihood estimation significantly. However, both improved and original NSEs suffer from heavy instability. In addition, the heavy computation cost of huge number of model executions is overcome by using an adaptive sparse grid surrogates.

Parents’ and students’ perceptions of college alcohol risk: The role of parental risk perception in intentions to communicate about alcohol

PubMed Central

Napper, Lucy E.; Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

2017-01-01

The current study aims to examine discrepancies in parents’ and college students’ perceptions of alcohol risk and the role of perceived risk in predicting parents’ intentions to discuss alcohol with their child. In total, 246 college student-parent dyads (56.1% female students, 77.2% mothers) were recruited from a mid-size university. Participants completed measures of absolute likelihood, comparative likelihood, and severity of alcohol consequences. In comparison to students, parents perceived the risks of alcohol poisoning (p < .001), academic impairment (p < .05), and problems with others (p < .05) to be more likely. In addition, parents rated the majority alcohol consequences (e.g., passing out, regrettable sexual situation, throwing up) as more severe than students (all ps < .001). However, parents tended to be more optimistic than their child about the comparative likelihood of alcohol consequences. After controlling for demographics and past alcohol communication, greater absolute likelihood (β = .20, p = .016) and less confidence in knowledge of student behavior (β = .20, p = .013) predicted greater intentions to discuss alcohol. Providing parents of college students with information about college drinking norms and the likelihood of alcohol consequences may help prompt alcohol-related communication. PMID:25437267

Diagnostic utility of a one-item question to screen for depressive disorders: results from the KORA F3 study.

PubMed

Blozik, Eva; Scherer, Martin; Lacruz, Maria E; Ladwig, Karl-Heinz

2013-12-23

Screening for depressive disorders in the general adult population is recommended, however, it is unclear which instruments combine user friendliness and diagnostic utility. We evaluated the test performance of a yes/no single item screener for depressive disorders ("Have you felt depressed or sad much of the time in the past year?") in comparison to the depressive disorder module of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Data from 3184 participants of the population-based KORA F3 survey in Augsburg/ Germany were used to analyse sensitivity, specificity, ROC area, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the single item screener in comparison with "depressive mood" and "major depressive disorder" defined according to PHQ-9 (both interviewer-administered versions). In comparison to PHQ-9 "depressive mood", sensitivity was low (46%) with an excellent specificity (94%), (PPV 76%; NPV 82%; LR + 8.04; LR- .572, ROC area .702). When using the more conservative definition for "major depressive disorder", sensitivity increased to 83% with a specificity of 88%. The PPV under the conservative definition was low (32%), but NPV was 99% (LR + 6.65; LR- .196; ROC area .852). Results varied across age groups and between males and females. The single item screener is able to moderately decrease post-test probability of major depressive disorders and to identify populations that should undergo additional, more detailed evaluation for depression. It may have limited utility in combination with additional screening tests or for selection of at-risk populations, but cannot be recommended for routine use as a screening tool in clinical practice.

Diagnostic utility of a one-item question to screen for depressive disorders: results from the KORA F3 study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Screening for depressive disorders in the general adult population is recommended, however, it is unclear which instruments combine user friendliness and diagnostic utility. We evaluated the test performance of a yes/no single item screener for depressive disorders (“Have you felt depressed or sad much of the time in the past year?”) in comparison to the depressive disorder module of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Methods Data from 3184 participants of the population-based KORA F3 survey in Augsburg/ Germany were used to analyse sensitivity, specificity, ROC area, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the single item screener in comparison with “depressive mood” and “major depressive disorder” defined according to PHQ-9 (both interviewer-administered versions). Results In comparison to PHQ-9 “depressive mood”, sensitivity was low (46%) with an excellent specificity (94%), (PPV 76%; NPV 82%; LR + 8.04; LR- .572, ROC area .702). When using the more conservative definition for “major depressive disorder”, sensitivity increased to 83% with a specificity of 88%. The PPV under the conservative definition was low (32%), but NPV was 99% (LR + 6.65; LR- .196; ROC area .852). Results varied across age groups and between males and females. Conclusions The single item screener is able to moderately decrease post-test probability of major depressive disorders and to identify populations that should undergo additional, more detailed evaluation for depression. It may have limited utility in combination with additional screening tests or for selection of at-risk populations, but cannot be recommended for routine use as a screening tool in clinical practice. PMID:24359193

Bayesian model comparison and parameter inference in systems biology using nested sampling.

PubMed

Pullen, Nick; Morris, Richard J

2014-01-01

Inferring parameters for models of biological processes is a current challenge in systems biology, as is the related problem of comparing competing models that explain the data. In this work we apply Skilling's nested sampling to address both of these problems. Nested sampling is a Bayesian method for exploring parameter space that transforms a multi-dimensional integral to a 1D integration over likelihood space. This approach focuses on the computation of the marginal likelihood or evidence. The ratio of evidences of different models leads to the Bayes factor, which can be used for model comparison. We demonstrate how nested sampling can be used to reverse-engineer a system's behaviour whilst accounting for the uncertainty in the results. The effect of missing initial conditions of the variables as well as unknown parameters is investigated. We show how the evidence and the model ranking can change as a function of the available data. Furthermore, the addition of data from extra variables of the system can deliver more information for model comparison than increasing the data from one variable, thus providing a basis for experimental design.

Modeling of 2D diffusion processes based on microscopy data: parameter estimation and practical identifiability analysis.

PubMed

Hock, Sabrina; Hasenauer, Jan; Theis, Fabian J

2013-01-01

Diffusion is a key component of many biological processes such as chemotaxis, developmental differentiation and tissue morphogenesis. Since recently, the spatial gradients caused by diffusion can be assessed in-vitro and in-vivo using microscopy based imaging techniques. The resulting time-series of two dimensional, high-resolutions images in combination with mechanistic models enable the quantitative analysis of the underlying mechanisms. However, such a model-based analysis is still challenging due to measurement noise and sparse observations, which result in uncertainties of the model parameters. We introduce a likelihood function for image-based measurements with log-normal distributed noise. Based upon this likelihood function we formulate the maximum likelihood estimation problem, which is solved using PDE-constrained optimization methods. To assess the uncertainty and practical identifiability of the parameters we introduce profile likelihoods for diffusion processes. As proof of concept, we model certain aspects of the guidance of dendritic cells towards lymphatic vessels, an example for haptotaxis. Using a realistic set of artificial measurement data, we estimate the five kinetic parameters of this model and compute profile likelihoods. Our novel approach for the estimation of model parameters from image data as well as the proposed identifiability analysis approach is widely applicable to diffusion processes. The profile likelihood based method provides more rigorous uncertainty bounds in contrast to local approximation methods.

Attrition of U.S. military enlistees with waivers for hearing deficiency, 1995-2004.

PubMed

Niebuhr, David W; Li, Yuanzhang; Powers, Timothy E; Krauss, Margot R; Chandler, David; Helfer, Thomas

2007-01-01

Hearing deficiency is the condition for which accession medical waivers are most commonly granted. The retention of individuals entering service with a waiver for hearing deficiency has not been previously studied. Military retention among new enlistees with a medical waiver for hearing deficiency was compared with that among a matched comparison group of fully qualified enlistees. Comparisons according to branch of service over the first 3 years of service were performed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method and proportional-hazards model. Army subjects had significantly lower retention rates than did their fully qualified counterparts. In the adjusted model, Army and Navy enlistees with a waiver for hearing deficiency had a significantly lower likelihood of retention than did their matched counterparts. The increased likelihood of medical attrition in enlistees with a waiver for hearing loss provides no evidence to make the hearing accession standard more lenient and validates a selective hearing loss waiver policy.

Population Synthesis of Radio and Gamma-ray Pulsars using the Maximum Likelihood Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billman, Caleb; Gonthier, P. L.; Harding, A. K.

2012-01-01

We present the results of a pulsar population synthesis of normal pulsars from the Galactic disk using a maximum likelihood method. We seek to maximize the likelihood of a set of parameters in a Monte Carlo population statistics code to better understand their uncertainties and the confidence region of the model's parameter space. The maximum likelihood method allows for the use of more applicable Poisson statistics in the comparison of distributions of small numbers of detected gamma-ray and radio pulsars. Our code simulates pulsars at birth using Monte Carlo techniques and evolves them to the present assuming initial spatial, kick velocity, magnetic field, and period distributions. Pulsars are spun down to the present and given radio and gamma-ray emission characteristics. We select measured distributions of radio pulsars from the Parkes Multibeam survey and Fermi gamma-ray pulsars to perform a likelihood analysis of the assumed model parameters such as initial period and magnetic field, and radio luminosity. We present the results of a grid search of the parameter space as well as a search for the maximum likelihood using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We express our gratitude for the generous support of the Michigan Space Grant Consortium, of the National Science Foundation (REU and RUI), the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program and the NASA Fermi Guest Investigator Program.

Integral equation methods for computing likelihoods and their derivatives in the stochastic integrate-and-fire model.

PubMed

Paninski, Liam; Haith, Adrian; Szirtes, Gabor

2008-02-01

We recently introduced likelihood-based methods for fitting stochastic integrate-and-fire models to spike train data. The key component of this method involves the likelihood that the model will emit a spike at a given time t. Computing this likelihood is equivalent to computing a Markov first passage time density (the probability that the model voltage crosses threshold for the first time at time t). Here we detail an improved method for computing this likelihood, based on solving a certain integral equation. This integral equation method has several advantages over the techniques discussed in our previous work: in particular, the new method has fewer free parameters and is easily differentiable (for gradient computations). The new method is also easily adaptable for the case in which the model conductance, not just the input current, is time-varying. Finally, we describe how to incorporate large deviations approximations to very small likelihoods.

Comparison of wheat classification accuracy using different classifiers of the image-100 system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Chen, S. C.; Moreira, M. A.; Delima, A. M.

1981-01-01

Classification results using single-cell and multi-cell signature acquisition options, a point-by-point Gaussian maximum-likelihood classifier, and K-means clustering of the Image-100 system are presented. Conclusions reached are that: a better indication of correct classification can be provided by using a test area which contains various cover types of the study area; classification accuracy should be evaluated considering both the percentages of correct classification and error of commission; supervised classification approaches are better than K-means clustering; Gaussian distribution maximum likelihood classifier is better than Single-cell and Multi-cell Signature Acquisition Options of the Image-100 system; and in order to obtain a high classification accuracy in a large and heterogeneous crop area, using Gaussian maximum-likelihood classifier, homogeneous spectral subclasses of the study crop should be created to derive training statistics.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Jackson, D D

1996-04-30

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

PubMed Central

Jackson, D D

1996-01-01

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions. PMID:11607663

Population stochastic modelling (PSM)--an R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations.

PubMed

Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode; Overgaard, Rune Viig; Madsen, Henrik

2009-06-01

The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornøe, R.V. Overgaard, H. Agersø, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8)) (2005) 1247-1258; R.V. Overgaard, N. Jonsson, C.W. Tornøe, H. Madsen, Non-linear mixed-effects models with stochastic differential equations: implementation of an estimation algorithm, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 85-107; U. Picchini, S. Ditlevsen, A. De Gaetano, Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics, Math. Med. Biol. 25 (June(2)) (2008) 141-155]. PK/PD models are traditionally based ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with an observation link that incorporates noise. This state-space formulation only allows for observation noise and not for system noise. Extending to SDEs allows for a Wiener noise component in the system equations. This additional noise component enables handling of autocorrelated residuals originating from natural variation or systematic model error. Autocorrelated residuals are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE(1) approximation to the population likelihood which is generated from the individual likelihoods that are approximated using the Extended Kalman Filter's one-step predictions.

Bayesian Computation for Log-Gaussian Cox Processes: A Comparative Analysis of Methods

PubMed Central

Teng, Ming; Nathoo, Farouk S.; Johnson, Timothy D.

2017-01-01

The Log-Gaussian Cox Process is a commonly used model for the analysis of spatial point pattern data. Fitting this model is difficult because of its doubly-stochastic property, i.e., it is an hierarchical combination of a Poisson process at the first level and a Gaussian Process at the second level. Various methods have been proposed to estimate such a process, including traditional likelihood-based approaches as well as Bayesian methods. We focus here on Bayesian methods and several approaches that have been considered for model fitting within this framework, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, the Integrated nested Laplace approximation, and Variational Bayes. We consider these approaches and make comparisons with respect to statistical and computational efficiency. These comparisons are made through several simulation studies as well as through two applications, the first examining ecological data and the second involving neuroimaging data. PMID:29200537

Non-linear auto-regressive models for cross-frequency coupling in neural time series

PubMed Central

Tallot, Lucille; Grabot, Laetitia; Doyère, Valérie; Grenier, Yves; Gramfort, Alexandre

2017-01-01

We address the issue of reliably detecting and quantifying cross-frequency coupling (CFC) in neural time series. Based on non-linear auto-regressive models, the proposed method provides a generative and parametric model of the time-varying spectral content of the signals. As this method models the entire spectrum simultaneously, it avoids the pitfalls related to incorrect filtering or the use of the Hilbert transform on wide-band signals. As the model is probabilistic, it also provides a score of the model “goodness of fit” via the likelihood, enabling easy and legitimate model selection and parameter comparison; this data-driven feature is unique to our model-based approach. Using three datasets obtained with invasive neurophysiological recordings in humans and rodents, we demonstrate that these models are able to replicate previous results obtained with other metrics, but also reveal new insights such as the influence of the amplitude of the slow oscillation. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our parametric method can reveal neural couplings with shorter signals than non-parametric methods. We also show how the likelihood can be used to find optimal filtering parameters, suggesting new properties on the spectrum of the driving signal, but also to estimate the optimal delay between the coupled signals, enabling a directionality estimation in the coupling. PMID:29227989

Photon Counting Data Analysis: Application of the Maximum Likelihood and Related Methods for the Determination of Lifetimes in Mixtures of Rose Bengal and Rhodamine B

DOE PAGES

Santra, Kalyan; Smith, Emily A.; Petrich, Jacob W.; ...

2016-12-12

It is often convenient to know the minimum amount of data needed in order to obtain a result of desired accuracy and precision. It is a necessity in the case of subdiffraction-limited microscopies, such as stimulated emission depletion (STED) microscopy, owing to the limited sample volumes and the extreme sensitivity of the samples to photobleaching and photodamage. We present a detailed comparison of probability-based techniques (the maximum likelihood method and methods based on the binomial and the Poisson distributions) with residual minimization-based techniques for retrieving the fluorescence decay parameters for various two-fluorophore mixtures, as a function of the total numbermore » of photon counts, in time-correlated, single-photon counting experiments. The probability-based techniques proved to be the most robust (insensitive to initial values) in retrieving the target parameters and, in fact, performed equivalently to 2-3 significant figures. This is to be expected, as we demonstrate that the three methods are fundamentally related. Furthermore, methods based on the Poisson and binomial distributions have the desirable feature of providing a bin-by-bin analysis of a single fluorescence decay trace, which thus permits statistics to be acquired using only the one trace for not only the mean and median values of the fluorescence decay parameters but also for the associated standard deviations. Lastly, these probability-based methods lend themselves well to the analysis of the sparse data sets that are encountered in subdiffraction-limited microscopies.« less

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Collinear Latent Variables in Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis: A Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Estimations.

PubMed

Can, Seda; van de Schoot, Rens; Hox, Joop

2015-06-01

Because variables may be correlated in the social and behavioral sciences, multicollinearity might be problematic. This study investigates the effect of collinearity manipulated in within and between levels of a two-level confirmatory factor analysis by Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the influence of the size of the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and estimation method; maximum likelihood estimation with robust chi-squares and standard errors and Bayesian estimation, on the convergence rate are investigated. The other variables of interest were rate of inadmissible solutions and the relative parameter and standard error bias on the between level. The results showed that inadmissible solutions were obtained when there was between level collinearity and the estimation method was maximum likelihood. In the within level multicollinearity condition, all of the solutions were admissible but the bias values were higher compared with the between level collinearity condition. Bayesian estimation appeared to be robust in obtaining admissible parameters but the relative bias was higher than for maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, as expected, high ICC produced less biased results compared to medium ICC conditions.

Parents' and students' perceptions of college alcohol risk: the role of parental risk perception in intentions to communicate about alcohol.

PubMed

Napper, Lucy E; Grimaldi, Elizabeth M; LaBrie, Joseph W

2015-03-01

The current study aims to examine discrepancies in parents' and college students' perceptions of alcohol risk and the role of perceived risk in predicting parents' intentions to discuss alcohol with their child. In total, 246 college student-parent dyads (56.1% female students, 77.2% mothers) were recruited from a mid-size university. Participants completed measures of absolute likelihood, comparative likelihood, and severity of alcohol consequences. In comparison to students, parents perceived the risks of alcohol poisoning (p<.001), academic impairment (p<.05), and problems with others (p<.05) to be more likely. In addition, parents rated the majority of alcohol consequences (e.g., passing out, regrettable sexual situation, throwing up) as more severe than students (all ps<.001). However, parents tended to be more optimistic than their child about the comparative likelihood of alcohol consequences. After controlling for demographics and past alcohol communication, greater absolute likelihood (β=.20, p=.016) and less confidence in knowledge of student behavior (β=.20, p=.013) predicted greater intentions to discuss alcohol. Providing parents of college students with information about college drinking norms and the likelihood of alcohol consequences may help prompt alcohol-related communication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of algebraic and analytical approaches to the formulation of the statistical model-based reconstruction problem for X-ray computed tomography.

PubMed

Cierniak, Robert; Lorent, Anna

2016-09-01

The main aim of this paper is to investigate properties of our originally formulated statistical model-based iterative approach applied to the image reconstruction from projections problem which are related to its conditioning, and, in this manner, to prove a superiority of this approach over ones recently used by other authors. The reconstruction algorithm based on this conception uses a maximum likelihood estimation with an objective adjusted to the probability distribution of measured signals obtained from an X-ray computed tomography system with parallel beam geometry. The analysis and experimental results presented here show that our analytical approach outperforms the referential algebraic methodology which is explored widely in the literature and exploited in various commercial implementations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Solar and Other Influences on Long-term Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Ruedy, Reto A.

1990-01-01

Examples are shown of climate variability, and unforced climate fluctuations are discussed, as evidenced in both model simulations and observations. Then the author compares different global climate forcings, a comparison which by itself has significant implications. Finally, the author discusses a new climate simulation for the 1980s and 1990s which incorporates the principal known global climate forcings. The results indicate a likelihood of rapid global warming in the early 1990s.

Determining the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.; Klein, Vladislav

1994-01-01

An important part of building high fidelity mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of the accuracy of parameter estimates, the estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression based on theoretical analysis was developed to properly compute parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood estimates with colored residuals. This result is important because experience from the analysis of measured data reveals that the residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Simulated data runs were used to show that the parameter accuracy measures computed with this technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for analysis of the output residuals in the frequency domain or heuristically determined multiplication factors. The result is general, although the application studied here is maximum likelihood estimation of aerodynamic model parameters from flight test data.

A fast identification algorithm for Box-Cox transformation based radial basis function neural network.

PubMed

Hong, Xia

2006-07-01

In this letter, a Box-Cox transformation-based radial basis function (RBF) neural network is introduced using the RBF neural network to represent the transformed system output. Initially a fixed and moderate sized RBF model base is derived based on a rank revealing orthogonal matrix triangularization (QR decomposition). Then a new fast identification algorithm is introduced using Gauss-Newton algorithm to derive the required Box-Cox transformation, based on a maximum likelihood estimator. The main contribution of this letter is to explore the special structure of the proposed RBF neural network for computational efficiency by utilizing the inverse of matrix block decomposition lemma. Finally, the Box-Cox transformation-based RBF neural network, with good generalization and sparsity, is identified based on the derived optimal Box-Cox transformation and a D-optimality-based orthogonal forward regression algorithm. The proposed algorithm and its efficacy are demonstrated with an illustrative example in comparison with support vector machine regression.

A comparison of maximum likelihood and other estimators of eigenvalues from several correlated Monte Carlo samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beer, M.

1980-12-01

The maximum likelihood method for the multivariate normal distribution is applied to the case of several individual eigenvalues. Correlated Monte Carlo estimates of the eigenvalue are assumed to follow this prescription and aspects of the assumption are examined. Monte Carlo cell calculations using the SAM-CE and VIM codes for the TRX-1 and TRX-2 benchmark reactors, and SAM-CE full core results are analyzed with this method. Variance reductions of a few percent to a factor of 2 are obtained from maximum likelihood estimation as compared with the simple average and the minimum variance individual eigenvalue. The numerical results verify that themore » use of sample variances and correlation coefficients in place of the corresponding population statistics still leads to nearly minimum variance estimation for a sufficient number of histories and aggregates.« less

Implementation and assessment of a likelihood ratio approach for the evaluation of LA-ICP-MS evidence in forensic glass analysis.

PubMed

van Es, Andrew; Wiarda, Wim; Hordijk, Maarten; Alberink, Ivo; Vergeer, Peter

2017-05-01

For the comparative analysis of glass fragments, a method using Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is in use at the NFI, giving measurements of the concentration of 18 elements. An important question is how to evaluate the results as evidence that a glass sample originates from a known glass source or from an arbitrary different glass source. One approach is the use of matching criteria e.g. based on a t-test or overlap of confidence intervals. An important drawback of this method is the fact that the rarity of the glass composition is not taken into account. A similar match can have widely different evidential values. In addition the use of fixed matching criteria can give rise to a "fall off the cliff" effect. Small differences may result in a match or a non-match. In this work a likelihood ratio system is presented, largely based on the two-level model as proposed by Aitken and Lucy [1], and Aitken, Zadora and Lucy [2]. Results show that the output from the two-level model gives good discrimination between same and different source hypotheses, but a post-hoc calibration step is necessary to improve the accuracy of the likelihood ratios. Subsequently, the robustness and performance of the LR system are studied. Results indicate that the output of the LR system is robust to the sample properties of the dataset used for calibration. Furthermore, the empirical upper and lower bound method [3], designed to deal with extrapolation errors in the density models, results in minimum and maximum values of the LR outputted by the system of 3.1×10 -3 and 3.4×10 4 . Calibration of the system, as measured by empirical cross-entropy, shows good behavior over the complete prior range. Rates of misleading evidence are small: for same-source comparisons, 0.3% of LRs support a different-source hypothesis; for different-source comparisons, 0.2% supports a same-source hypothesis. The authors use the LR system in reporting of glass cases to support expert opinion in the interpretation of glass evidence for origin of source questions. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Indirect scaling methods for testing quantitative emotion theories.

PubMed

Junge, Martin; Reisenzein, Rainer

2013-01-01

Two studies investigated the utility of indirect scaling methods, based on graded pair comparisons, for the testing of quantitative emotion theories. In Study 1, we measured the intensity of relief and disappointment caused by lottery outcomes, and in Study 2, the intensity of disgust evoked by pictures, using both direct intensity ratings and graded pair comparisons. The stimuli were systematically constructed to reflect variables expected to influence the intensity of the emotions according to theoretical models of relief/disappointment and disgust, respectively. Two probabilistic scaling methods were used to estimate scale values from the pair comparison judgements: Additive functional measurement (AFM) and maximum likelihood difference scaling (MLDS). The emotion models were fitted to the direct and indirect intensity measurements using nonlinear regression (Study 1) and analysis of variance (Study 2). Both studies found substantially improved fits of the emotion models for the indirectly determined emotion intensities, with their advantage being evident particularly at the level of individual participants. The results suggest that indirect scaling methods yield more precise measurements of emotion intensity than rating scales and thereby provide stronger tests of emotion theories in general and quantitative emotion theories in particular.

On Bayesian Testing of Additive Conjoint Measurement Axioms Using Synthetic Likelihood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karabatsos, George

2017-01-01

This article introduces a Bayesian method for testing the axioms of additive conjoint measurement. The method is based on an importance sampling algorithm that performs likelihood-free, approximate Bayesian inference using a synthetic likelihood to overcome the analytical intractability of this testing problem. This new method improves upon…

An optimization based sampling approach for multiple metrics uncertainty analysis using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Rurui; Li, Yu; Lu, Di; Liu, Haixing; Zhou, Huicheng

2016-09-01

This paper investigates the use of an epsilon-dominance non-dominated sorted genetic algorithm II (ɛ-NSGAII) as a sampling approach with an aim to improving sampling efficiency for multiple metrics uncertainty analysis using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). The effectiveness of ɛ-NSGAII based sampling is demonstrated compared with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) through analyzing sampling efficiency, multiple metrics performance, parameter uncertainty and flood forecasting uncertainty with a case study of flood forecasting uncertainty evaluation based on Xinanjiang model (XAJ) for Qing River reservoir, China. Results obtained demonstrate the following advantages of the ɛ-NSGAII based sampling approach in comparison to LHS: (1) The former performs more effective and efficient than LHS, for example the simulation time required to generate 1000 behavioral parameter sets is shorter by 9 times; (2) The Pareto tradeoffs between metrics are demonstrated clearly with the solutions from ɛ-NSGAII based sampling, also their Pareto optimal values are better than those of LHS, which means better forecasting accuracy of ɛ-NSGAII parameter sets; (3) The parameter posterior distributions from ɛ-NSGAII based sampling are concentrated in the appropriate ranges rather than uniform, which accords with their physical significance, also parameter uncertainties are reduced significantly; (4) The forecasted floods are close to the observations as evaluated by three measures: the normalized total flow outside the uncertainty intervals (FOUI), average relative band-width (RB) and average deviation amplitude (D). The flood forecasting uncertainty is also reduced a lot with ɛ-NSGAII based sampling. This study provides a new sampling approach to improve multiple metrics uncertainty analysis under the framework of GLUE, and could be used to reveal the underlying mechanisms of parameter sets under multiple conflicting metrics in the uncertainty analysis process.

Comparison of the MPP with other supercomputers for LANDSAT data processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ozga, Martin

1987-01-01

The massively parallel processor is compared to the CRAY X-MP and the CYBER-205 for LANDSAT data processing. The maximum likelihood classification algorithm is the basis for comparison since this algorithm is simple to implement and vectorizes very well. The algorithm was implemented on all three machines and tested by classifying the same full scene of LANDSAT multispectral scan data. Timings are compared as well as features of the machines and available software.

Effects of the men's program on U.S. Army soldiers' intentions to commit and willingness to intervene to prevent rape: a pretest posttest study.

PubMed

Foubert, John D; Masin, Ryan C

2012-01-01

Noncommissioned male officers in the U.S. Army stationed in Germany were trained to present a 1-hour rape prevention workshop--The Men's Program--to 237 enlisted male soldiers. A comparison group of 244 male soldiers received a briefing focused on reducing the individual's risk for experiencing sexual assault, discussion of myths and facts about sexual assault, and how to avoid being accused of sexual assault. Participants in The Men's Program experienced significant change in the predicted direction for bystander willingness to help, bystander efficacy, rape myth acceptance, likelihood of raping, and likelihood of committing sexual assault with low to medium effect sizes. Comparison group participants experienced no effect on these variables except for a significant decline in rape myth acceptance with a very low effect size. Between-group differences pointed to the efficacy of The Men's Program. Implications of these results for rape prevention programming in the military are discussed.

DSN telemetry system performance using a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benjauthrit, B.; Kemp, R. P.

1977-01-01

Results are described of telemetry system performance testing using DSN equipment and a Maximum Likelihood Convolutional Decoder (MCD) for code rates 1/2 and 1/3, constraint length 7 and special test software. The test results confirm the superiority of the rate 1/3 over that of the rate 1/2. The overall system performance losses determined at the output of the Symbol Synchronizer Assembly are less than 0.5 db for both code rates. Comparison of the performance is also made with existing mathematical models. Error statistics of the decoded data are examined. The MCD operational threshold is found to be about 1.96 db.

Maximum likelihood conjoint measurement of lightness and chroma.

PubMed

Rogers, Marie; Knoblauch, Kenneth; Franklin, Anna

2016-03-01

Color varies along dimensions of lightness, hue, and chroma. We used maximum likelihood conjoint measurement to investigate how lightness and chroma influence color judgments. Observers judged lightness and chroma of stimuli that varied in both dimensions in a paired-comparison task. We modeled how changes in one dimension influenced judgment of the other. An additive model best fit the data in all conditions except for judgment of red chroma where there was a small but significant interaction. Lightness negatively contributed to perception of chroma for red, blue, and green hues but not for yellow. The method permits quantification of lightness and chroma contributions to color appearance.

Evaluation of Smoking Prevention Television Messages Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flynn, Brian S.; Worden, John K.; Bunn, Janice Yanushka; Connolly, Scott W.; Dorwaldt, Anne L.

2011-01-01

Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from…

Anticipating cognitive effort: roles of perceived error-likelihood and time demands.

PubMed

Dunn, Timothy L; Inzlicht, Michael; Risko, Evan F

2017-11-13

Why are some actions evaluated as effortful? In the present set of experiments we address this question by examining individuals' perception of effort when faced with a trade-off between two putative cognitive costs: how much time a task takes vs. how error-prone it is. Specifically, we were interested in whether individuals anticipate engaging in a small amount of hard work (i.e., low time requirement, but high error-likelihood) vs. a large amount of easy work (i.e., high time requirement, but low error-likelihood) as being more effortful. In between-subject designs, Experiments 1 through 3 demonstrated that individuals anticipate options that are high in perceived error-likelihood (yet less time consuming) as more effortful than options that are perceived to be more time consuming (yet low in error-likelihood). Further, when asked to evaluate which of the two tasks was (a) more effortful, (b) more error-prone, and (c) more time consuming, effort-based and error-based choices closely tracked one another, but this was not the case for time-based choices. Utilizing a within-subject design, Experiment 4 demonstrated overall similar pattern of judgments as Experiments 1 through 3. However, both judgments of error-likelihood and time demand similarly predicted effort judgments. Results are discussed within the context of extant accounts of cognitive control, with considerations of how error-likelihood and time demands may independently and conjunctively factor into judgments of cognitive effort.

Frullania knightbridgei, a new liverwort (Frullaniaceae, Marchantiophyta) species from the deep south of Aotearoa-New Zealand based on an integrated evidence-based approach

PubMed Central

von Konrat, Matt; de Lange, Peter; Greif, Matt; Strozier, Lynika; Hentschel, Jörn; Heinrichs, Jochen

2012-01-01

Abstract Frullania is a large and taxonomically complex genus. A new liverwort species, Frullania knightbridgei sp. nov. from southern New Zealand, is described and illustrated. The new species, and its placement in Frullania subg. Microfrullania, is based on an integrated evidence-based approach derived from morphology, ecology, experimental growth studies of plasticity, as well as sequence data. Diagnostic characters associated with the leaf and lobule cell-wall anatomy, oil bodies, and spore ultra-structure distinguish it from all other New Zealand species of Frullania. A critical comparison is also made between Frullania knightbridgei and morphologically allied species of botanical regions outside the New Zealand region and an artificial key is provided. The new species is similar to some forms of the widespread Australasian species, Frullania rostrata, but has unique characters associated with the lobule and oil bodies. Frullania knightbridgei is remarkably interesting in comparison with the majority of Frullania species, and indeed liverworts in general, in that it is at least partially halotolerant. Maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood analyses of nuclear ribosomal ITS2 and plastidic trnL-trnF sequences from purported related speciesconfirms its independent taxonomic status and corroborates its placement within Frullania subg. Microfrullania. PMID:22287928

Towards a novel look on low-frequency climate reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamenik, Christian; Goslar, Tomasz; Hicks, Sheila; Barnekow, Lena; Huusko, Antti

2010-05-01

Information on low-frequency (millennial to sub-centennial) climate change is often derived from sedimentary archives, such as peat profiles or lake sediments. Usually, these archives have non-annual and varying time resolution. Their dating is mainly based on radionuclides, which provide probabilistic age-depth relationships with complex error structures. Dating uncertainties impede the interpretation of sediment-based climate reconstructions. They complicate the calculation of time-dependent rates. In most cases, they make any calibration in time impossible. Sediment-based climate proxies are therefore often presented as a single, best-guess time series without proper calibration and error estimation. Errors along time and dating errors that propagate into the calculation of time-dependent rates are neglected. Our objective is to overcome the aforementioned limitations by using a 'swarm' or 'ensemble' of reconstructions instead of a single best-guess. The novelty of our approach is to take into account age-depth uncertainties by permuting through a large number of potential age-depth relationships of the archive of interest. For each individual permutation we can then calculate rates, calibrate proxies in time, and reconstruct the climate-state variable of interest. From the resulting swarm of reconstructions, we can derive realistic estimates of even complex error structures. The likelihood of reconstructions is visualized by a grid of two-dimensional kernels that take into account probabilities along time and the climate-state variable of interest simultaneously. For comparison and regional synthesis, likelihoods can be scored against other independent climate time series.

Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

2014-05-01

The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model goodness metric on calibration. The different likelihoods are different functions of RMSE (root mean squared error) weighted by measurement uncertainty: exponential / linear / quadratic / linear normalized by correlation. As a first calibration step sensitivity analysis was performed in order to select the influential parameters which have strong effect on the output data. In the second calibration step only the sensitive parameters were calibrated (optimal values and confidence intervals were calculated). In case of PaSim more parameters were found responsible for the 95% of the output data variance than is case of BBGC MuSo. Analysis of the results of the optimized models revealed that the exponential likelihood estimation proved to be the most robust (best model simulation with optimized parameter, highest confidence interval increase). The cross-validation of the model simulations can help in constraining the highly uncertain greenhouse gas budget of grasslands.

A comparison of abundance estimates from extended batch-marking and Jolly–Seber-type experiments

PubMed Central

Cowen, Laura L E; Besbeas, Panagiotis; Morgan, Byron J T; Schwarz, Carl J

2014-01-01

Little attention has been paid to the use of multi-sample batch-marking studies, as it is generally assumed that an individual's capture history is necessary for fully efficient estimates. However, recently, Huggins et al. (2010) present a pseudo-likelihood for a multi-sample batch-marking study where they used estimating equations to solve for survival and capture probabilities and then derived abundance estimates using a Horvitz–Thompson-type estimator. We have developed and maximized the likelihood for batch-marking studies. We use data simulated from a Jolly–Seber-type study and convert this to what would have been obtained from an extended batch-marking study. We compare our abundance estimates obtained from the Crosbie–Manly–Arnason–Schwarz (CMAS) model with those of the extended batch-marking model to determine the efficiency of collecting and analyzing batch-marking data. We found that estimates of abundance were similar for all three estimators: CMAS, Huggins, and our likelihood. Gains are made when using unique identifiers and employing the CMAS model in terms of precision; however, the likelihood typically had lower mean square error than the pseudo-likelihood method of Huggins et al. (2010). When faced with designing a batch-marking study, researchers can be confident in obtaining unbiased abundance estimators. Furthermore, they can design studies in order to reduce mean square error by manipulating capture probabilities and sample size. PMID:24558576

Wavelet-based image analysis system for soil texture analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yun; Long, Zhiling; Jang, Ping-Rey; Plodinec, M. John

2003-05-01

Soil texture is defined as the relative proportion of clay, silt and sand found in a given soil sample. It is an important physical property of soil that affects such phenomena as plant growth and agricultural fertility. Traditional methods used to determine soil texture are either time consuming (hydrometer), or subjective and experience-demanding (field tactile evaluation). Considering that textural patterns observed at soil surfaces are uniquely associated with soil textures, we propose an innovative approach to soil texture analysis, in which wavelet frames-based features representing texture contents of soil images are extracted and categorized by applying a maximum likelihood criterion. The soil texture analysis system has been tested successfully with an accuracy of 91% in classifying soil samples into one of three general categories of soil textures. In comparison with the common methods, this wavelet-based image analysis approach is convenient, efficient, fast, and objective.

Likelihood-based modification of experimental crystal structure electron density maps

DOEpatents

Terwilliger, Thomas C [Sante Fe, NM

2005-04-16

A maximum-likelihood method for improves an electron density map of an experimental crystal structure. A likelihood of a set of structure factors {F.sub.h } is formed for the experimental crystal structure as (1) the likelihood of having obtained an observed set of structure factors {F.sub.h.sup.OBS } if structure factor set {F.sub.h } was correct, and (2) the likelihood that an electron density map resulting from {F.sub.h } is consistent with selected prior knowledge about the experimental crystal structure. The set of structure factors {F.sub.h } is then adjusted to maximize the likelihood of {F.sub.h } for the experimental crystal structure. An improved electron density map is constructed with the maximized structure factors.

AXXE® (pelargonic acid) and Racer® (ammonium nonanoate): Weed control comparisons

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Organic vegetable producers need herbicides that can provide effective season-long weed control. The availability and use of effective post-emergence organic herbicides would increase the likelihood of season-long weed control, reduce crop loses, and decrease the introduction of additional weed seed...

Reading Comprehension Strategies: An International Comparison of Teacher Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kissau, Scott; Hiller, Florian

2013-01-01

In response to international concern over poor reading skills among adolescent learners, teachers of these students are encouraged to integrate reading comprehension instruction into their classrooms. To increase the likelihood that reading comprehension strategies are effectively used in schools, teachers in all content areas need extensive…

Healthchecks and Sustainable Livelihoods: A Case Study from Kent.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butcher, Catherine; McDonald, Brian; Westhorp, Victoria

2003-01-01

Comparison of the sustainable livelihoods approach of a development agency and the British government's "healthcheck" approach to town regeneration found common emphasis on participation and community-led action. However, sustainable likelihoods emphasized a focus on poverty, building on strengths, and social capital as an asset.…

In search of best fitted composite model to the ALAE data set with transformed Gamma and inversed transformed Gamma families

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maghsoudi, Mastoureh; Bakar, Shaiful Anuar Abu

2017-05-01

In this paper, a recent novel approach is applied to estimate the threshold parameter of a composite model. Several composite models from Transformed Gamma and Inverse Transformed Gamma families are constructed based on this approach and their parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method. These composite models are fitted to allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE). In comparison to all composite models studied, the composite Weibull-Inverse Transformed Gamma model is proved to be a competitor candidate as it best fit the loss data. The final part considers the backtesting method to verify the validation of VaR and CTE risk measures.

Estimating Function Approaches for Spatial Point Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Chong

Spatial point pattern data consist of locations of events that are often of interest in biological and ecological studies. Such data are commonly viewed as a realization from a stochastic process called spatial point process. To fit a parametric spatial point process model to such data, likelihood-based methods have been widely studied. However, while maximum likelihood estimation is often too computationally intensive for Cox and cluster processes, pairwise likelihood methods such as composite likelihood, Palm likelihood usually suffer from the loss of information due to the ignorance of correlation among pairs. For many types of correlated data other than spatial point processes, when likelihood-based approaches are not desirable, estimating functions have been widely used for model fitting. In this dissertation, we explore the estimating function approaches for fitting spatial point process models. These approaches, which are based on the asymptotic optimal estimating function theories, can be used to incorporate the correlation among data and yield more efficient estimators. We conducted a series of studies to demonstrate that these estmating function approaches are good alternatives to balance the trade-off between computation complexity and estimating efficiency. First, we propose a new estimating procedure that improves the efficiency of pairwise composite likelihood method in estimating clustering parameters. Our approach combines estimating functions derived from pairwise composite likeli-hood estimation and estimating functions that account for correlations among the pairwise contributions. Our method can be used to fit a variety of parametric spatial point process models and can yield more efficient estimators for the clustering parameters than pairwise composite likelihood estimation. We demonstrate its efficacy through a simulation study and an application to the longleaf pine data. Second, we further explore the quasi-likelihood approach on fitting second-order intensity function of spatial point processes. However, the original second-order quasi-likelihood is barely feasible due to the intense computation and high memory requirement needed to solve a large linear system. Motivated by the existence of geometric regular patterns in the stationary point processes, we find a lower dimension representation of the optimal weight function and propose a reduced second-order quasi-likelihood approach. Through a simulation study, we show that the proposed method not only demonstrates superior performance in fitting the clustering parameter but also merits in the relaxation of the constraint of the tuning parameter, H. Third, we studied the quasi-likelihood type estimating funciton that is optimal in a certain class of first-order estimating functions for estimating the regression parameter in spatial point process models. Then, by using a novel spectral representation, we construct an implementation that is computationally much more efficient and can be applied to more general setup than the original quasi-likelihood method.

ARMA-Based SEM When the Number of Time Points T Exceeds the Number of Cases N: Raw Data Maximum Likelihood.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2003-01-01

Demonstrated, through simulation, that stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models may be fitted readily when T>N, using normal theory raw maximum likelihood structural equation modeling. Also provides some illustrations based on real data. (SLD)

Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a process-based tropical forest model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

2014-02-01

Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. This metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion methods require a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model parameters, known as the likelihood. For technical and computational reasons, likelihoods for process-based stochastic models are usually based on general assumptions about variability in the observed data, and not on the stochasticity generated by the model. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow the generation of likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual inventory data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine its sensitivity to the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and demonstrate the application of this method by fitting the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss how this approach differs from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), another method commonly used to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can be successfully applied to process-based models of high complexity. The methodology is particularly suitable for heterogeneous and complex data structures and can easily be adjusted to other model types, including most stochastic population and individual-based models. Our study therefore provides a blueprint for a fairly general approach to parameter estimation of stochastic process-based models.

Development and validation of a cancer-specific swallowing assessment tool: MASA-C.

PubMed

Carnaby, Giselle D; Crary, Michael A

2014-03-01

We present data from a sample of patients receiving radiotherapy for head/neck cancer to define and measure the validity of a new clinical assessment measure for swallowing. Fifty-eight patients undergoing radiotherapy (±chemotherapy) for head/neck cancer (HNC) supported the development of a physiology-based assessment tool of swallowing (Mann Assessment of Swallowing Ability--Cancer: MASA-C) administered at two time points (baseline and following radiotherapy treatment). The new exam was evaluated for internal consistency of items using Cronbach's alpha. Reliability of measurement was evaluated with intraclass correlation (ICC) and the Kappa statistic between two independent raters. Concurrent validity was established through comparison with the original MASA examination and against the referent standard videofluoroscopic swallowing examination (VFE). Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios along with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were derived for comparison of the two evaluation forms (MASA vs. MASA-C). Accuracy of diagnostic precision was displayed using receiver operator characteristic curves. The new MASA-C tool demonstrated superior validity to the original MASA examination applied to a HNC population. In comparison to the VFE referent exam, the MASA-C revealed strong sensitivity and specificity (Se 83, Sp 96), predictive values (positive predictive value (PPV) 0.95, negative predictive value (NPV) 0.86), and likelihood ratios (21.6). In addition, it demonstrated good reliability (ICC = 0.96) between speech-language pathology raters. The MASA-C is a reliable and valid scale that is sensitive to differences in swallowing performance in HNC patients with and without dysphagia. Future longitudinal evaluation of this tool in larger samples is suggested. The development and refinement of this swallowing assessment tool for use in multidisciplinary HNC teams will facilitate earlier identification of patients with swallowing difficulties and enable more efficient allocation of resources to the management of dysphagia in this population. The MASA-C may also prove useful in future clinical HNC rehabilitation trials with this population.

Information loss in approximately bayesian data assimilation: a comparison of generative and discriminative approaches to estimating agricultural yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Data assimilation and regression are two commonly used methods for predicting agricultural yield from remote sensing observations. Data assimilation is a generative approach because it requires explicit approximations of the Bayesian prior and likelihood to compute the probability density function...

A Comparison of Missing-Data Procedures for Arima Time-Series Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Colby, Suzanne M.

2005-01-01

Missing data are a common practical problem for longitudinal designs. Time-series analysis is a longitudinal method that involves a large number of observations on a single unit. Four different missing-data methods (deletion, mean substitution, mean of adjacent observations, and maximum likelihood estimation) were evaluated. Computer-generated…

Coalescent-based species tree inference from gene tree topologies under incomplete lineage sorting by maximum likelihood.

PubMed

Wu, Yufeng

2012-03-01

Incomplete lineage sorting can cause incongruence between the phylogenetic history of genes (the gene tree) and that of the species (the species tree), which can complicate the inference of phylogenies. In this article, I present a new coalescent-based algorithm for species tree inference with maximum likelihood. I first describe an improved method for computing the probability of a gene tree topology given a species tree, which is much faster than an existing algorithm by Degnan and Salter (2005). Based on this method, I develop a practical algorithm that takes a set of gene tree topologies and infers species trees with maximum likelihood. This algorithm searches for the best species tree by starting from initial species trees and performing heuristic search to obtain better trees with higher likelihood. This algorithm, called STELLS (which stands for Species Tree InfErence with Likelihood for Lineage Sorting), has been implemented in a program that is downloadable from the author's web page. The simulation results show that the STELLS algorithm is more accurate than an existing maximum likelihood method for many datasets, especially when there is noise in gene trees. I also show that the STELLS algorithm is efficient and can be applied to real biological datasets. © 2011 The Author. Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Use pattern and predictors of use of highly caffeinated energy drinks among South Korean adolescents: a study using the Health Belief Model

PubMed Central

Ha, Dongmun; Song, Inmyung; Jang, Gyeongil; Lee, Eui-Kyung; Shin, Ju-Young

2017-01-01

Objectives Concerns about the use of highly caffeinated energy drinks among Korean adolescents remains. We compared adolescents’ perceptions regarding the use of drinks to their behaviours and factors. Design A structured questionnaire based on the Health Belief Model was administered to 850 freshmen and sophomores at three high schools in Bucheon, South Korea. Benefits were defined as beneficial effects from the use of highly caffeinated energy drinks (eg, awakening from sleepiness) and harms as adverse effects of the drinks (eg, cardiac palpitation). Likelihood of action represents the likelihood of taking actions that are perceived to be more beneficial after comparison of the benefits and harms of caffeine use. Descriptive analysis was used to quantify the relationship between their beliefs about highly caffeinated energy drinks and their use. We conducted hierarchical logistic regression to compute ORs and 95% CIs for: (1) demographic factors, (2) health threat, (3) likelihood of action and (4) cues to act. Results Altogether, 833 students responded to the questionnaire (effective response rate=98.0%). About 63.0% reported use of highly caffeinated energy drinks and 35.2% had used them as needed and habitually. The more susceptible the respondents perceived themselves to be to the risk of using these drinks, the less likely they were to use them (OR: 0.73, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.06). The more severe the perception of a health threat, the less that perception was associated with use (OR: 0.44, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.67). Likelihood of action was the strongest predictor of use, explaining 12.5% in use. Benefits and harms (OR: 4.43, 95% CI 2.77 to 7.09; OR: 1.86, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.99) also were significant predictors. Conclusions Enhancing adolescents’ perceptions of benefits and harms regarding using highly caffeinated energy drinks could be an effective way to influence the use of these drinks. PMID:28947455

Risk factors for classical hysterotomy by gestational age.

PubMed

Osmundson, Sarah S; Garabedian, Matthew J; Lyell, Deirdre J

2013-10-01

To examine the likelihood of classical hysterotomy across preterm gestational ages and to identify factors that increase its occurrence. This is a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort collected by the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Network of all women with singleton gestations who underwent a cesarean delivery with a known hysterotomy. Comparisons were made based on gestational age. Factors thought to influence hysterotomy type were studied, including maternal age, body mass index, parity, birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA) status, fetal presentation, labor preceding delivery, and emergent delivery. Approximately 36,000 women were eligible for analysis, of whom 34,454 (95.7%) underwent low transverse hysterotomy and 1,562 (4.3%) underwent classical hysterotomy. The median gestational age of women undergoing a classical hysterotomy was 32 weeks and the incidence peaked between 24 0/7 weeks and 25 6/7 weeks (53.2%), declining with each additional week of gestation thereafter (P for trend <.001). In multivariable regression, the likelihood of classical hysterotomy was increased with SGA (n=258; odds ratio [OR] 2.71; confidence interval [CI] 1.78-4.13), birth weight 1,000 g or less (n=467; OR 1.51; CI 1.03-2.24), and noncephalic presentation (n=783; OR 2.03; CI 1.52-2.72). The likelihood of classical hysterotomy was decreased between 23 0/7 and 27 6/7 weeks of gestation and after 32 weeks of gestation when labor preceded delivery, and increased between 28 0/7 and 31 6/7 weeks of gestation and after 32 weeks of gestation by multiparity and previous cesarean delivery. Emergent delivery did not predict classical hysterotomy. Fifty percent of women at 23-26 weeks of gestation who undergo cesarean delivery have a classical hysterotomy, and the risk declines steadily thereafter. This likelihood is increased by fetal factors, especially SGA and noncephalic presentation. : II.

Do aftercare services reduce inpatient psychiatric readmissions?

PubMed Central

Foster, E M

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether aftercare services reduce the likelihood that children and adolescents will be readmitted to inpatient psychiatric facilities. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Analyses of data from the Fort Bragg Demonstration. Data were based on 204 sample individuals (children and adolescents), all of whom were discharged from inpatient facilities during the study period. STUDY DESIGN: These analyses use hazard modeling to examine the impact of aftercare services on the likelihood of readmission. Comparisons of individuals for whom the timing of aftercare services differ are adjusted for a wide range of individual characteristics, including client demographics, diagnosis, symptomatology, and psychosocial functioning. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Detailed data on psychopathology, symptomatology, and psychosocial functioning were collected on individuals included in these analyses. This information was taken from structured diagnostic interviews and behavior checklists, including the Child Behavior Checklist and Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children, completed by the child and his or her caretaker. Information on the use of mental health services was taken from insurance claims and a management information system, and was used to identify the period from discharge to readmission and to describe the client's use of outpatient therapy, case management, intermediate (or stepdown) services, and residential treatment centers during this period. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS: Using Cox models that allow for censoring and that include the use of aftercare services as time-varying covariates, we find that aftercare services generally do not influence the likelihood of inpatient readmission. For the lower middle class families included in this study, the estimated effect of aftercare is not statistically significant and has limited practical significance. When we look at specific forms of aftercare, we find that outpatient therapy has the largest effect and that stepdown services in intermediate settings have the smallest. We also identify family and individual characteristics that influence the likelihood of readmission. PMID:10445899

Application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Attitude Change to Assertion Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ernst, John M.; Heesacker, Martin

1993-01-01

College students (n=113) participated in study comparing effects of elaboration likelihood model (ELM) based assertion workshop with those of typical assertion workshop. ELM-based workshop was significantly better at producing favorable attitude change, greater intention to act assertively, and more favorable evaluations of workshop content.…

Nested Sampling for Bayesian Model Comparison in the Context of Salmonella Disease Dynamics

PubMed Central

Dybowski, Richard; McKinley, Trevelyan J.; Mastroeni, Pietro; Restif, Olivier

2013-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics of complex biological systems requires the statistical assessment and comparison of multiple alternative models. Although this has traditionally been done using maximum likelihood-based methods such as Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian methods have gained in popularity because they provide more informative output in the form of posterior probability distributions. However, comparison between multiple models in a Bayesian framework is made difficult by the computational cost of numerical integration over large parameter spaces. A new, efficient method for the computation of posterior probabilities has recently been proposed and applied to complex problems from the physical sciences. Here we demonstrate how nested sampling can be used for inference and model comparison in biological sciences. We present a reanalysis of data from experimental infection of mice with Salmonella enterica showing the distribution of bacteria in liver cells. In addition to confirming the main finding of the original analysis, which relied on AIC, our approach provides: (a) integration across the parameter space, (b) estimation of the posterior parameter distributions (with visualisations of parameter correlations), and (c) estimation of the posterior predictive distributions for goodness-of-fit assessments of the models. The goodness-of-fit results suggest that alternative mechanistic models and a relaxation of the quasi-stationary assumption should be considered. PMID:24376528

Feasibility and acceptability of a child sexual abuse prevention program for childcare professionals: comparison of a web-based and in-person training.

PubMed

Rheingold, Alyssa A; Zajac, Kristyn; Patton, Meghan

2012-01-01

Recent prevention research has established the efficacy of some child sexual abuse prevention programs targeting adults; however, less is known about the feasibility of implementing such programs. The current study examines the feasibility and acceptability of a child sexual abuse prevention program for child care professionals provided in two different formats: in person and Web based. The sample consisted of 188 child care professionals from a large-scale, multisite, randomized controlled trial. Findings indicate that both in-person and online training formats are feasible to implement and acceptable to professionals. When comparing formats, the in-person format was favored in terms of comfort level and likelihood of sharing information with others. These findings have significant implications for dissemination of child sexual abuse prevention programs for child care professionals.

Review of the Lightning Strike Incident at Launch Complex 37 on July 27, 1967, and Comparison to a Gemini Lightning Strike

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llewellyn, J. A.

1967-01-01

The Launch Complex 37 lightning strike of July 27, 1967, was reviewed and compared to a similar incident on the Gemini Program. Available data indicate little likelihood of damaging currents having been present in SA-204 Launch Vehicle or the ground equipment during the July 27th incident. Based on the results of subsystem and system testing after the strike, anticipated results of future testing, the six months elapsed time between the strike-and launch, and the fact that much of the critical airborne electrical/electronic equipment has been removed since the strike for other reasons, no new actions are considered necessary at this time in the Gemini case, significant failures occurred in both airborne and ground circuits. Due to the resultant semi, condlictor uncertainty, and the relatively' short time prior to planned launch, all critical airborne components containing semiconduetors were replaced, and a sophisticated data comparison task was implemented.

Lee-Carter state space modeling: Application to the Malaysia mortality data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakiyatussariroh, W. H. Wan; Said, Z. Mohammad; Norazan, M. R.

2014-06-01

This article presents an approach that formalizes the Lee-Carter (LC) model as a state space model. Maximum likelihood through Expectation-Maximum (EM) algorithm was used to estimate the model. The methodology is applied to Malaysia's total population mortality data. Malaysia's mortality data was modeled based on age specific death rates (ASDR) data from 1971-2009. The fitted ASDR are compared to the actual observed values. However, results from the comparison of the fitted and actual values between LC-SS model and the original LC model shows that the fitted values from the LC-SS model and original LC model are quite close. In addition, there is not much difference between the value of root mean squared error (RMSE) and Akaike information criteria (AIC) from both models. The LC-SS model estimated for this study can be extended for forecasting ASDR in Malaysia. Then, accuracy of the LC-SS compared to the original LC can be further examined by verifying the forecasting power using out-of-sample comparison.

On the more accurate channel model and positioning based on time-of-arrival for visible light localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amini, Changeez; Taherpour, Abbas; Khattab, Tamer; Gazor, Saeed

2017-01-01

This paper presents an improved propagation channel model for the visible light in indoor environments. We employ this model to derive an enhanced positioning algorithm using on the relation between the time-of-arrivals (TOAs) and the distances for two cases either by assuming known or unknown transmitter and receiver vertical distances. We propose two estimators, namely the maximum likelihood estimator and an estimator by employing the method of moments. To have an evaluation basis for these methods, we calculate the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the performance of the estimations. We show that the proposed model and estimations result in a superior performance in positioning when the transmitter and receiver are perfectly synchronized in comparison to the existing state-of-the-art counterparts. Moreover, the corresponding CRLB of the proposed model represents almost about 20 dB reduction in the localization error bound in comparison with the previous model for some practical scenarios.

Love me Tinder: Body image and psychosocial functioning among men and women.

PubMed

Strubel, Jessica; Petrie, Trent A

2017-06-01

Based on objectification theory, we examined the main effects of Tinder use, and its interaction with gender, in relation to men's and women's body image concerns, internalization processes, and self-esteem. Tinder users (men=31; women=69) and non-users (men=203; women=844) anonymously completed measures via an online survey. Through a series of ANCOVAs, with BMI and age as covariates, Tinder users, regardless of gender, reported significantly lower levels of satisfaction with face and body and higher levels of internalization, appearance comparisons, and body shame and surveillance than non-users. For self-esteem, male Tinder users scored significantly lower than either male or female non-users. Our results suggest that Tinder represents a contemporary medium for appearance pressures and its use is associated with a variety of negative perceptions about body and self and with increases in individuals' likelihood to internalize appearance ideals and make comparisons to others. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ABrox-A user-friendly Python module for approximate Bayesian computation with a focus on model comparison.

PubMed

Mertens, Ulf Kai; Voss, Andreas; Radev, Stefan

2018-01-01

We give an overview of the basic principles of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a class of stochastic methods that enable flexible and likelihood-free model comparison and parameter estimation. Our new open-source software called ABrox is used to illustrate ABC for model comparison on two prominent statistical tests, the two-sample t-test and the Levene-Test. We further highlight the flexibility of ABC compared to classical Bayesian hypothesis testing by computing an approximate Bayes factor for two multinomial processing tree models. Last but not least, throughout the paper, we introduce ABrox using the accompanied graphical user interface.

Lateral stability and control derivatives of a jet fighter airplane extracted from flight test data by utilizing maximum likelihood estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parrish, R. V.; Steinmetz, G. G.

1972-01-01

A method of parameter extraction for stability and control derivatives of aircraft from flight test data, implementing maximum likelihood estimation, has been developed and successfully applied to actual lateral flight test data from a modern sophisticated jet fighter. This application demonstrates the important role played by the analyst in combining engineering judgment and estimator statistics to yield meaningful results. During the analysis, the problems of uniqueness of the extracted set of parameters and of longitudinal coupling effects were encountered and resolved. The results for all flight runs are presented in tabular form and as time history comparisons between the estimated states and the actual flight test data.

Hybrid pairwise likelihood analysis of animal behavior experiments.

PubMed

Cattelan, Manuela; Varin, Cristiano

2013-12-01

The study of the determinants of fights between animals is an important issue in understanding animal behavior. For this purpose, tournament experiments among a set of animals are often used by zoologists. The results of these tournament experiments are naturally analyzed by paired comparison models. Proper statistical analysis of these models is complicated by the presence of dependence between the outcomes of fights because the same animal is involved in different contests. This paper discusses two different model specifications to account for between-fights dependence. Models are fitted through the hybrid pairwise likelihood method that iterates between optimal estimating equations for the regression parameters and pairwise likelihood inference for the association parameters. This approach requires the specification of means and covariances only. For this reason, the method can be applied also when the computation of the joint distribution is difficult or inconvenient. The proposed methodology is investigated by simulation studies and applied to real data about adult male Cape Dwarf Chameleons. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Comparisons of neural networks to standard techniques for image classification and correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paola, Justin D.; Schowengerdt, Robert A.

1994-01-01

Neural network techniques for multispectral image classification and spatial pattern detection are compared to the standard techniques of maximum-likelihood classification and spatial correlation. The neural network produced a more accurate classification than maximum-likelihood of a Landsat scene of Tucson, Arizona. Some of the errors in the maximum-likelihood classification are illustrated using decision region and class probability density plots. As expected, the main drawback to the neural network method is the long time required for the training stage. The network was trained using several different hidden layer sizes to optimize both the classification accuracy and training speed, and it was found that one node per class was optimal. The performance improved when 3x3 local windows of image data were entered into the net. This modification introduces texture into the classification without explicit calculation of a texture measure. Larger windows were successfully used for the detection of spatial features in Landsat and Magellan synthetic aperture radar imagery.

Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

2013-08-01

Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can successfully be applied to process-based models of high complexity. The methodology is particularly suited to heterogeneous and complex data structures and can easily be adjusted to other model types, including most stochastic population and individual-based models. Our study therefore provides a blueprint for a fairly general approach to parameter estimation of stochastic process-based models in ecology and evolution.

Objective analysis of toolmarks in forensics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grieve, Taylor N.

Since the 1993 court case of Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc. the subjective nature of toolmark comparison has been questioned by attorneys and law enforcement agencies alike. This has led to an increased drive to establish objective comparison techniques with known error rates, much like those that DNA analysis is able to provide. This push has created research in which the 3-D surface profile of two different marks are characterized and the marks' cross-sections are run through a comparative statistical algorithm to acquire a value that is intended to indicate the likelihood of a match between the marks. The aforementioned algorithm has been developed and extensively tested through comparison of evenly striated marks made by screwdrivers. However, this algorithm has yet to be applied to quasi-striated marks such as those made by the shear edge of slip-joint pliers. The results of this algorithm's application to the surface of copper wire will be presented. Objective mark comparison also extends to comparison of toolmarks made by firearms. In an effort to create objective comparisons, microstamping of firing pins and breech faces has been introduced. This process involves placing unique alphanumeric identifiers surrounded by a radial code on the surface of firing pins, which transfer to the cartridge's primer upon firing. Three different guns equipped with microstamped firing pins were used to fire 3000 cartridges. These cartridges are evaluated based on the clarity of their alphanumeric transfers and the clarity of the radial code surrounding the alphanumerics.

Objective analysis of toolmarks in forensics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grieve, Taylor N.

2013-01-01

Since the 1993 court case of Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc. the subjective nature of toolmark comparison has been questioned by attorneys and law enforcement agencies alike. This has led to an increased drive to establish objective comparison techniques with known error rates, much like those that DNA analysis is able to provide. This push has created research in which the 3-D surface profile of two different marks are characterized and the marks’ cross-sections are run through a comparative statistical algorithm to acquire a value that is intended to indicate the likelihood of a match between the marks. Themore » aforementioned algorithm has been developed and extensively tested through comparison of evenly striated marks made by screwdrivers. However, this algorithm has yet to be applied to quasi-striated marks such as those made by the shear edge of slip-joint pliers. The results of this algorithm’s application to the surface of copper wire will be presented. Objective mark comparison also extends to comparison of toolmarks made by firearms. In an effort to create objective comparisons, microstamping of firing pins and breech faces has been introduced. This process involves placing unique alphanumeric identifiers surrounded by a radial code on the surface of firing pins, which transfer to the cartridge’s primer upon firing. Three different guns equipped with microstamped firing pins were used to fire 3000 cartridges. These cartridges are evaluated based on the clarity of their alphanumeric transfers and the clarity of the radial code surrounding the alphanumerics.« less

Phylogenetic analysis of nitrite, nitric oxide, and nitrous oxide respiratory enzymes reveal a complex evolutionary history for denitrification.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher M; Stres, Blaz; Rosenquist, Magnus; Hallin, Sara

2008-09-01

Denitrification is a facultative respiratory pathway in which nitrite (NO2(-)), nitric oxide (NO), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are successively reduced to nitrogen gas (N(2)), effectively closing the nitrogen cycle. The ability to denitrify is widely dispersed among prokaryotes, and this polyphyletic distribution has raised the possibility of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) having a substantial role in the evolution of denitrification. Comparisons of 16S rRNA and denitrification gene phylogenies in recent studies support this possibility; however, these results remain speculative as they are based on visual comparisons of phylogenies from partial sequences. We reanalyzed publicly available nirS, nirK, norB, and nosZ partial sequences using Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic inference. Concomitant analysis of denitrification genes with 16S rRNA sequences from the same organisms showed substantial differences between the trees, which were supported by examining the posterior probability of monophyletic constraints at different taxonomic levels. Although these differences suggest HGT of denitrification genes, the presence of structural variants for nirK, norB, and nosZ makes it difficult to determine HGT from other evolutionary events. Additional analysis using phylogenetic networks and likelihood ratio tests of phylogenies based on full-length sequences retrieved from genomes also revealed significant differences in tree topologies among denitrification and 16S rRNA gene phylogenies, with the exception of the nosZ gene phylogeny within the data set of the nirK-harboring genomes. However, inspection of codon usage and G + C content plots from complete genomes gave no evidence for recent HGT. Instead, the close proximity of denitrification gene copies in the genomes of several denitrifying bacteria suggests duplication. Although HGT cannot be ruled out as a factor in the evolution of denitrification genes, our analysis suggests that other phenomena, such gene duplication/divergence and lineage sorting, may have differently influenced the evolution of each denitrification gene.

Assessment of parametric uncertainty for groundwater reactive transport modeling,

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Xiaoqing; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.; Miller, Geoffery L.; Meyer, Philip D.; Kohler, Matthias; Yabusaki, Steve; Wu, Jichun

2014-01-01

The validity of using Gaussian assumptions for model residuals in uncertainty quantification of a groundwater reactive transport model was evaluated in this study. Least squares regression methods explicitly assume Gaussian residuals, and the assumption leads to Gaussian likelihood functions, model parameters, and model predictions. While the Bayesian methods do not explicitly require the Gaussian assumption, Gaussian residuals are widely used. This paper shows that the residuals of the reactive transport model are non-Gaussian, heteroscedastic, and correlated in time; characterizing them requires using a generalized likelihood function such as the formal generalized likelihood function developed by Schoups and Vrugt (2010). For the surface complexation model considered in this study for simulating uranium reactive transport in groundwater, parametric uncertainty is quantified using the least squares regression methods and Bayesian methods with both Gaussian and formal generalized likelihood functions. While the least squares methods and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function produce similar Gaussian parameter distributions, the parameter distributions of Bayesian uncertainty quantification using the formal generalized likelihood function are non-Gaussian. In addition, predictive performance of formal generalized likelihood function is superior to that of least squares regression and Bayesian methods with Gaussian likelihood function. The Bayesian uncertainty quantification is conducted using the differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm; as a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, it is a robust tool for quantifying uncertainty in groundwater reactive transport models. For the surface complexation model, the regression-based local sensitivity analysis and Morris- and DREAM(ZS)-based global sensitivity analysis yield almost identical ranking of parameter importance. The uncertainty analysis may help select appropriate likelihood functions, improve model calibration, and reduce predictive uncertainty in other groundwater reactive transport and environmental modeling.

The Luminosity Function of Star Clusters in 20 Star-Forming Galaxies Based on Hubble Legacy Archive Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowers, Ariel; Whitmore, B. C.; Chandar, R.; Larsen, S. S.

2014-01-01

Luminosity functions have been determined for star cluster populations in 20 nearby (4 - 30 Mpc), star-forming galaxies based on ACS source lists generated by the Hubble Legacy Archive (http://hla.stsci.edu). These cluster catalogs provide one of the largest sets of uniform, automatically-generated cluster candidates available in the literature at present. Comparisons are made with other recently generated cluster catalogs demonstrating that the HLA-generated catalogs are of similar quality, but in general do not go as deep. A typical cluster luminosity function can be approximated by a power-law, dN/dL ∝ Lα, with an average value for α of -2.37 and rms scatter = 0.18. A comparison of fitting results based on methods which use binned and unbinned data shows good agreement, although there may be a systematic tendency for the unbinned (maximum-likelihood) method to give slightly more negative values of α for galaxies with steper luminosity functions. Our uniform database results in a small scatter (0.5 magnitude) in the correlation between the magnitude of the brightest cluster (Mbrightest) and Log of the number of clusters brighter than MI = -9 (Log N). We also examine the magnitude of the brightest cluster vs. Log SFR for a sample including LIRGS and ULIRGS.

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Effects of Estimation Bias on Multiple-Category Classification with an IRT-Based Adaptive Classification Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Xiangdong; Poggio, John C.; Glasnapp, Douglas R.

2006-01-01

The effects of five ability estimators, that is, maximum likelihood estimator, weighted likelihood estimator, maximum a posteriori, expected a posteriori, and Owen's sequential estimator, on the performances of the item response theory-based adaptive classification procedure on multiple categories were studied via simulations. The following…

Nasal Airway Microbiota Profile and Severe Bronchiolitis in Infants: A Case-control Study.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Kohei; Linnemann, Rachel W; Mansbach, Jonathan M; Ajami, Nadim J; Espinola, Janice A; Petrosino, Joseph F; Piedra, Pedro A; Stevenson, Michelle D; Sullivan, Ashley F; Thompson, Amy D; Camargo, Carlos A

2017-11-01

Little is known about the relationship of airway microbiota with bronchiolitis in infants. We aimed to identify nasal airway microbiota profiles and to determine their association with the likelihood of bronchiolitis in infants. A case-control study was conducted. As a part of a multicenter prospective study, we collected nasal airway samples from 40 infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis. We concurrently enrolled 110 age-matched healthy controls. By applying 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing and an unbiased clustering approach to these 150 nasal samples, we identified microbiota profiles and determined the association of microbiota profiles with likelihood of bronchiolitis. Overall, the median age was 3 months and 56% were male. Unbiased clustering of airway microbiota identified 4 distinct profiles: Moraxella-dominant profile (37%), Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profile (27%), Staphylococcus-dominant profile (15%) and mixed profile (20%). Proportion of bronchiolitis was lowest in infants with Moraxella-dominant profile (14%) and highest in those with Staphylococcus-dominant profile (57%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 7.80 (95% confidence interval, 2.64-24.9; P < 0.001). In the multivariable model, the association between Staphylococcus-dominant profile and greater likelihood of bronchiolitis persisted (odds ratio for comparison with Moraxella-dominant profile, 5.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-22.9; P = 0.03). By contrast, Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profile group had low proportion of infants with bronchiolitis (17%); the likelihood of bronchiolitis in this group did not significantly differ from those with Moraxella-dominant profile in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses. In this case-control study, we identified 4 distinct nasal airway microbiota profiles in infants. Moraxella-dominant and Corynebacterium/Dolosigranulum-dominant profiles were associated with low likelihood of bronchiolitis, while Staphylococcus-dominant profile was associated with high likelihood of bronchiolitis.

Rules or consequences? The role of ethical mind-sets in moral dynamics.

PubMed

Cornelissen, Gert; Bashshur, Michael R; Rode, Julian; Le Menestrel, Marc

2013-04-01

Recent research on the dynamics of moral behavior has documented two contrasting phenomena-moral consistency and moral balancing. Moral balancing refers to the phenomenon whereby behaving ethically or unethically decreases the likelihood of engaging in the same type of behavior again later. Moral consistency describes the opposite pattern-engaging in ethical or unethical behavior increases the likelihood of engaging in the same type of behavior later on. The three studies reported here supported the hypothesis that individuals' ethical mind-set (i.e., outcome-based vs. rule-based) moderates the impact of an initial ethical or unethical act on the likelihood of behaving ethically on a subsequent occasion. More specifically, an outcome-based mind-set facilitated moral balancing, and a rule-based mind-set facilitated moral consistency.

The development of an automatic recognition system for earmark and earprint comparisons.

PubMed

Junod, Stéphane; Pasquier, Julien; Champod, Christophe

2012-10-10

The value of earmarks as an efficient means of personal identification is still subject to debate. It has been argued that the field is lacking a firm systematic and structured data basis to help practitioners to form their conclusions. Typically, there is a paucity of research guiding as to the selectivity of the features used in the comparison process between an earmark and reference earprints taken from an individual. This study proposes a system for the automatic comparison of earprints and earmarks, operating without any manual extraction of key-points or manual annotations. For each donor, a model is created using multiple reference prints, hence capturing the donor within source variability. For each comparison between a mark and a model, images are automatically aligned and a proximity score, based on a normalized 2D correlation coefficient, is calculated. Appropriate use of this score allows deriving a likelihood ratio that can be explored under known state of affairs (both in cases where it is known that the mark has been left by the donor that gave the model and conversely in cases when it is established that the mark originates from a different source). To assess the system performance, a first dataset containing 1229 donors elaborated during the FearID research project was used. Based on these data, for mark-to-print comparisons, the system performed with an equal error rate (EER) of 2.3% and about 88% of marks are found in the first 3 positions of a hitlist. When performing print-to-print transactions, results show an equal error rate of 0.5%. The system was then tested using real-case data obtained from police forces. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum likelihood estimation of signal-to-noise ratio and combiner weight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalson, S.; Dolinar, S. J.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for estimating signal to noise ratio and combiner weight parameters for a discrete time series is presented. The algorithm is based upon the joint maximum likelihood estimate of the signal and noise power. The discrete-time series are the sufficient statistics obtained after matched filtering of a biphase modulated signal in additive white Gaussian noise, before maximum likelihood decoding is performed.

Comparison of different uncertainty techniques in urban stormwater quantity and quality modelling.

PubMed

Dotto, Cintia B S; Mannina, Giorgio; Kleidorfer, Manfred; Vezzaro, Luca; Henrichs, Malte; McCarthy, David T; Freni, Gabriele; Rauch, Wolfgang; Deletic, Ana

2012-05-15

Urban drainage models are important tools used by both practitioners and scientists in the field of stormwater management. These models are often conceptual and usually require calibration using local datasets. The quantification of the uncertainty associated with the models is a must, although it is rarely practiced. The International Working Group on Data and Models, which works under the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, has been working on the development of a framework for defining and assessing uncertainties in the field of urban drainage modelling. A part of that work is the assessment and comparison of different techniques generally used in the uncertainty assessment of the parameters of water models. This paper compares a number of these techniques: the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA), an approach based on a multi-objective auto-calibration (a multialgorithm, genetically adaptive multi-objective method, AMALGAM) and a Bayesian approach based on a simplified Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (implemented in the software MICA). To allow a meaningful comparison among the different uncertainty techniques, common criteria have been set for the likelihood formulation, defining the number of simulations, and the measure of uncertainty bounds. Moreover, all the uncertainty techniques were implemented for the same case study, in which the same stormwater quantity and quality model was used alongside the same dataset. The comparison results for a well-posed rainfall/runoff model showed that the four methods provide similar probability distributions of model parameters, and model prediction intervals. For ill-posed water quality model the differences between the results were much wider; and the paper provides the specific advantages and disadvantages of each method. In relation to computational efficiency (i.e. number of iterations required to generate the probability distribution of parameters), it was found that SCEM-UA and AMALGAM produce results quicker than GLUE in terms of required number of simulations. However, GLUE requires the lowest modelling skills and is easy to implement. All non-Bayesian methods have problems with the way they accept behavioural parameter sets, e.g. GLUE, SCEM-UA and AMALGAM have subjective acceptance thresholds, while MICA has usually problem with its hypothesis on normality of residuals. It is concluded that modellers should select the method which is most suitable for the system they are modelling (e.g. complexity of the model's structure including the number of parameters), their skill/knowledge level, the available information, and the purpose of their study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polarization and Persuasion: Integrating the Elaboration Likelihood Model with Explanations of Group Polarization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mongeau, Paul A.

Interest has recently focused on group polarization as a function of attitude processes. Several recent reviewers have challenged polarization researchers to integrate the explanations of polarization to existing theories of attitude change. This review suggests that there exists a clear similarity between the social comparison and persuasive…

Comparison of image deconvolution algorithms on simulated and laboratory infrared images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Proctor, D.

1994-11-15

We compare Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy, Accelerated Lucy-Richardson, Weighted Goodness of Fit, and Pixon reconstructions of simple scenes as a function of signal-to-noise ratio for simulated images with randomly generated noise. Reconstruction results of infrared images taken with the TAISIR (Temperature and Imaging System InfraRed) are also discussed.

Comparison of Radio Frequency Distinct Native Attribute and Matched Filtering Techniques for Device Discrimination and Operation Identification

DTIC Science & Technology

identification. URE from ten MSP430F5529 16-bit microcontrollers were analyzed using: 1) RF distinct native attributes (RF-DNA) fingerprints paired with multiple...discriminant analysis/maximum likelihood (MDA/ML) classification, 2) RF-DNA fingerprints paired with generalized relevance learning vector quantized

Head-to-head comparison of the diagnostic performance of coronary computed tomography angiography and dobutamine-stress echocardiography in the evaluation of acute chest pain with normal ECG findings and negative troponin tests: A prospective multicenter study.

PubMed

Durand, Eric; Bauer, Fabrice; Mansencal, Nicolas; Azarine, Arshid; Diebold, Benoit; Hagege, Albert; Perdrix, Ludivine; Gilard, Martine; Jobic, Yannick; Eltchaninoff, Hélène; Bensalah, Mourad; Dubourg, Benjamin; Caudron, Jérôme; Niarra, Ralph; Chatellier, Gilles; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas; Mousseaux, Elie

2017-08-15

To perform a head-to-head comparison of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) and dobutamine-stress echocardiography (DSE) in patients presenting recent chest pain when troponin and ECG are negative. Two hundred seventeen patients with recent chest pain, normal ECG findings, and negative troponin were prospectively included in this multicenter study and were scheduled for CCTA and DSE. Invasive coronary angiography (ICA), was performed in patients when either DSE or CCTA was considered positive or when both were non-contributive or in case of recurrent chest pain during 6month follow-up. The presence of coronary artery stenosis was defined as a luminal obstruction >50% diameter in any coronary segment at ICA. ICA was performed in 75 (34.6%) patients. Coronary artery stenosis was identified in 37 (17%) patients. For CCTA, the sensitivity was 96.9% (95% CI 83.4-99.9), specificity 48.3% (29.4-67.5), positive likelihood ratio 2.06 (95% CI 1.36-3.11), and negative likelihood ratio 0.07 (95% CI 0.01-0.52). The sensitivity of DSE was 51.6% (95% CI 33.1-69.9), specificity 46.7% (28.3-65.7), positive likelihood ratio 1.03 (95% CI 0.62-1.72), and negative likelihood ratio 1.10 (95% CI 0.63-1.93). The CCTA: DSE ratio of true-positive and false-positive rates was 1.70 (95% CI 1.65-1.75) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.91-1.09), respectively, when non-contributive CCTA and DSE were both considered positive. Only one missed acute coronary syndrome was observed at six months. CCTA has higher diagnostic performance than DSE in the evaluation of patients with recent chest pain, normal ECG findings, and negative troponine to exclude coronary artery disease. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Maximum Likelihood Solution for Inclination-only Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arason, P.; Levi, S.

2006-12-01

The arithmetic means of inclination-only data are known to introduce a shallowing bias. Several methods have been proposed to estimate unbiased means of the inclination along with measures of the precision. Most of the inclination-only methods were designed to maximize the likelihood function of the marginal Fisher distribution. However, the exact analytical form of the maximum likelihood function is fairly complicated, and all these methods require various assumptions and approximations that are inappropriate for many data sets. For some steep and dispersed data sets, the estimates provided by these methods are significantly displaced from the peak of the likelihood function to systematically shallower inclinations. The problem in locating the maximum of the likelihood function is partly due to difficulties in accurately evaluating the function for all values of interest. This is because some elements of the log-likelihood function increase exponentially as precision parameters increase, leading to numerical instabilities. In this study we succeeded in analytically cancelling exponential elements from the likelihood function, and we are now able to calculate its value for any location in the parameter space and for any inclination-only data set, with full accuracy. Furtermore, we can now calculate the partial derivatives of the likelihood function with desired accuracy. Locating the maximum likelihood without the assumptions required by previous methods is now straight forward. The information to separate the mean inclination from the precision parameter will be lost for very steep and dispersed data sets. It is worth noting that the likelihood function always has a maximum value. However, for some dispersed and steep data sets with few samples, the likelihood function takes its highest value on the boundary of the parameter space, i.e. at inclinations of +/- 90 degrees, but with relatively well defined dispersion. Our simulations indicate that this occurs quite frequently for certain data sets, and relatively small perturbations in the data will drive the maxima to the boundary. We interpret this to indicate that, for such data sets, the information needed to separate the mean inclination and the precision parameter is permanently lost. To assess the reliability and accuracy of our method we generated large number of random Fisher-distributed data sets and used seven methods to estimate the mean inclination and precision paramenter. These comparisons are described by Levi and Arason at the 2006 AGU Fall meeting. The results of the various methods is very favourable to our new robust maximum likelihood method, which, on average, is the most reliable, and the mean inclination estimates are the least biased toward shallow values. Further information on our inclination-only analysis can be obtained from: http://www.vedur.is/~arason/paleomag

Task-Driven Tube Current Modulation and Regularization Design in Computed Tomography with Penalized-Likelihood Reconstruction.

PubMed

Gang, G J; Siewerdsen, J H; Stayman, J W

2016-02-01

This work applies task-driven optimization to design CT tube current modulation and directional regularization in penalized-likelihood (PL) reconstruction. The relative performance of modulation schemes commonly adopted for filtered-backprojection (FBP) reconstruction were also evaluated for PL in comparison. We adopt a task-driven imaging framework that utilizes a patient-specific anatomical model and information of the imaging task to optimize imaging performance in terms of detectability index ( d' ). This framework leverages a theoretical model based on implicit function theorem and Fourier approximations to predict local spatial resolution and noise characteristics of PL reconstruction as a function of the imaging parameters to be optimized. Tube current modulation was parameterized as a linear combination of Gaussian basis functions, and regularization was based on the design of (directional) pairwise penalty weights for the 8 in-plane neighboring voxels. Detectability was optimized using a covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategy algorithm. Task-driven designs were compared to conventional tube current modulation strategies for a Gaussian detection task in an abdomen phantom. The task-driven design yielded the best performance, improving d' by ~20% over an unmodulated acquisition. Contrary to FBP, PL reconstruction using automatic exposure control and modulation based on minimum variance (in FBP) performed worse than the unmodulated case, decreasing d' by 16% and 9%, respectively. This work shows that conventional tube current modulation schemes suitable for FBP can be suboptimal for PL reconstruction. Thus, the proposed task-driven optimization provides additional opportunities for improved imaging performance and dose reduction beyond that achievable with conventional acquisition and reconstruction.

Joint reconstruction of activity and attenuation in Time-of-Flight PET: A Quantitative Analysis.

PubMed

Rezaei, Ahmadreza; Deroose, Christophe M; Vahle, Thomas; Boada, Fernando; Nuyts, Johan

2018-03-01

Joint activity and attenuation reconstruction methods from time of flight (TOF) positron emission tomography (PET) data provide an effective solution to attenuation correction when no (or incomplete/inaccurate) information on the attenuation is available. One of the main barriers limiting their use in clinical practice is the lack of validation of these methods on a relatively large patient database. In this contribution, we aim at validating the activity reconstructions of the maximum likelihood activity reconstruction and attenuation registration (MLRR) algorithm on a whole-body patient data set. Furthermore, a partial validation (since the scale problem of the algorithm is avoided for now) of the maximum likelihood activity and attenuation reconstruction (MLAA) algorithm is also provided. We present a quantitative comparison of the joint reconstructions to the current clinical gold-standard maximum likelihood expectation maximization (MLEM) reconstruction with CT-based attenuation correction. Methods: The whole-body TOF-PET emission data of each patient data set is processed as a whole to reconstruct an activity volume covering all the acquired bed positions, which helps to reduce the problem of a scale per bed position in MLAA to a global scale for the entire activity volume. Three reconstruction algorithms are used: MLEM, MLRR and MLAA. A maximum likelihood (ML) scaling of the single scatter simulation (SSS) estimate to the emission data is used for scatter correction. The reconstruction results are then analyzed in different regions of interest. Results: The joint reconstructions of the whole-body patient data set provide better quantification in case of PET and CT misalignments caused by patient and organ motion. Our quantitative analysis shows a difference of -4.2% (±2.3%) and -7.5% (±4.6%) between the joint reconstructions of MLRR and MLAA compared to MLEM, averaged over all regions of interest, respectively. Conclusion: Joint activity and attenuation estimation methods provide a useful means to estimate the tracer distribution in cases where CT-based attenuation images are subject to misalignments or are not available. With an accurate estimate of the scatter contribution in the emission measurements, the joint TOF-PET reconstructions are within clinical acceptable accuracy. Copyright © 2018 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Measurement of CIB power spectra with CAM-SPEC from Planck HFI maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mak, Suet Ying; Challinor, Anthony; Efstathiou, George; Lagache, Guilaine

2015-08-01

We present new measurements of the cosmic infrared background (CIB) anisotropies and its first likelihood using Planck HFI data at 353, 545, and 857 GHz. The measurements are based on cross-frequency power spectra and likelihood analysis using the CAM-SPEC package, rather than map based template removal of foregrounds as done in previous Planck CIB analysis. We construct the likelihood of the CIB temperature fluctuations, an extension of CAM-SPEC likelihood as used in CMB analysis to higher frequency, and use it to drive the best estimate of the CIB power spectrum over three decades in multiple moment, l, covering 50 ≤ l ≤ 2500. We adopt parametric models of the CIB and foreground contaminants (Galactic cirrus, infrared point sources, and cosmic microwave background anisotropies), and calibrate the dataset uniformly across frequencies with known Planck beam and noise properties in the likelihood construction. We validate our likelihood through simulations and extensive suite of consistency tests, and assess the impact of instrumental and data selection effects on the final CIB power spectrum constraints. Two approaches are developed for interpreting the CIB power spectrum. The first approach is based on simple parametric model which model the cross frequency power using amplitudes, correlation coefficients, and known multipole dependence. The second approach is based on the physical models for galaxy clustering and the evolution of infrared emission of galaxies. The new approaches fit all auto- and cross- power spectra very well, with the best fit of χ2ν = 1.04 (parametric model). Using the best foreground solution, we find that the cleaned CIB power spectra are in good agreement with previous Planck and Herschel measurements.

Case studies in forensic soil examinations.

PubMed

Petraco, Nicholas; Kubic, Thomas A; Petraco, Nicholas D K

2008-07-04

The examination and comparison of forensic soil samples is discussed. The origin of a simple and easy to learn procedure used and modified by the authors is reviewed. The process begins with a preliminary observation, removal of artifacts, and sieving of each specimen. A specific size fraction is split into three fractions for color matching, polarized light microscopy (PLM) examination (particle counting) and optional gradient comparison. Next, several cases are reviewed in which the modified method was used to evaluate the likelihood of common origin for questioned and known specimens.

Analysis of biomolecular solvation sites by 3D-RISM theory.

PubMed

Sindhikara, Daniel J; Hirata, Fumio

2013-06-06

We derive, implement, and apply equilibrium solvation site analysis for biomolecules. Our method utilizes 3D-RISM calculations to quickly obtain equilibrium solvent distributions without either necessity of simulation or limits of solvent sampling. Our analysis of these distributions extracts highest likelihood poses of solvent as well as localized entropies, enthalpies, and solvation free energies. We demonstrate our method on a structure of HIV-1 protease where excellent structural and thermodynamic data are available for comparison. Our results, obtained within minutes, show systematic agreement with available experimental data. Further, our results are in good agreement with established simulation-based solvent analysis methods. This method can be used not only for visual analysis of active site solvation but also for virtual screening methods and experimental refinement.

Color normalization for robust evaluation of microscopy images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Švihlík, Jan; Kybic, Jan; Habart, David

2015-09-01

This paper deals with color normalization of microscopy images of Langerhans islets in order to increase robustness of the islet segmentation to illumination changes. The main application is automatic quantitative evaluation of the islet parameters, useful for determining the feasibility of islet transplantation in diabetes. First, background illumination inhomogeneity is compensated and a preliminary foreground/background segmentation is performed. The color normalization itself is done in either lαβ or logarithmic RGB color spaces, by comparison with a reference image. The color-normalized images are segmented using color-based features and pixel-wise logistic regression, trained on manually labeled images. Finally, relevant statistics such as the total islet area are evaluated in order to determine the success likelihood of the transplantation.

A QUANTITATIVE COMPARISON OF LUNAR ORBITAL NEUTRON DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eke, V. R.; Teodoro, L. F. A.; Lawrence, D. J.

2012-03-01

Data from the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) Collimated Sensors for Epithermal Neutrons (CSETN) are used in conjunction with a model based on results from the Lunar Prospector (LP) mission to quantify the extent of the background in the LEND CSETN. A simple likelihood analysis implies that at least 90% of the lunar component of the LEND CSETN flux results from high-energy epithermal (HEE) neutrons passing through the walls of the collimator. Thus, the effective FWHM of the LEND CSETN field of view is comparable to that of the omni-directional LP Neutron Spectrometer. The resulting map of HEE neutrons offersmore » the opportunity to probe the hydrogen abundance at low latitudes and to provide constraints on the distribution of lunar water.« less

Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

PubMed

Hosoya, Haruo

2012-08-01

We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.

Cognitive and contextual influences in determination of latent fingerprint suitability for identification judgments.

PubMed

Fraser-Mackenzie, Peter A F; Dror, Itiel E; Wertheim, Kasey

2013-06-01

We examined forensic fingerprint examiners' suitability determinations of latent fingerprints comparing situations in which the latent is assessed solo (in isolation) versus situations in which it is presented alongside a comparison (matching or non-matching) exemplar print. The presence of a non-matching comparison exemplar led examiners to be more inclined to draw the conclusion that the latent was suitable for comparison compared to when the latent was presented solo. This effect persisted even when the latent presented was highly unsuitable for comparison. The presence of a matching comparison exemplar led examiners to be less likely to decide that the latent was suitable and more likely to decide the latent was questionable compared to solo analysis. This effect persisted even when the latent presented was highly suitable, suggesting a strong main effect. Knowledge of another examiner's previous determination that the latent was unsuitable was found to increase the likelihood that the examiner would conclude that the latent was unsuitable. However, knowledge of a previous "suitable" determination by another examiner did not increase the likelihood of a "suitable" conclusion by examiners. The finding that effects were weaker, although not entirely removed, in those with IAI certification suggests that training may be an appropriate route for reducing the effect of contextual influence and bias in suitability determinations. It was also shown that latent prints that were previously classed as "unsuitable" in a non-biasing context, continued to be judged to be "unsuitable" in a strongly biasing context (a major case in which a previous examiner was purported to have made an Individualization). Copyright © 2013 Forensic Science Society. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2005-01-01

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Mapping the “What” and “Where” Visual Cortices and Their Atrophy in Alzheimer's Disease: Combined Activation Likelihood Estimation with Voxel-Based Morphometry

PubMed Central

Deng, Yanjia; Shi, Lin; Lei, Yi; Liang, Peipeng; Li, Kuncheng; Chu, Winnie C. W.; Wang, Defeng

2016-01-01

The human cortical regions for processing high-level visual (HLV) functions of different categories remain ambiguous, especially in terms of their conjunctions and specifications. Moreover, the neurobiology of declined HLV functions in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) has not been fully investigated. This study provides a functionally sorted overview of HLV cortices for processing “what” and “where” visual perceptions and it investigates their atrophy in AD and MCI patients. Based upon activation likelihood estimation (ALE), brain regions responsible for processing five categories of visual perceptions included in “what” and “where” visions (i.e., object, face, word, motion, and spatial visions) were analyzed, and subsequent contrast analyses were performed to show regions with conjunctive and specific activations for processing these visual functions. Next, based on the resulting ALE maps, the atrophy of HLV cortices in AD and MCI patients was evaluated using voxel-based morphometry. Our ALE results showed brain regions for processing visual perception across the five categories, as well as areas of conjunction and specification. Our comparisons of gray matter (GM) volume demonstrated atrophy of three “where” visual cortices in late MCI group and extensive atrophy of HLV cortices (25 regions in both “what” and “where” visual cortices) in AD group. In addition, the GM volume of atrophied visual cortices in AD and MCI subjects was found to be correlated to the deterioration of overall cognitive status and to the cognitive performances related to memory, execution, and object recognition functions. In summary, these findings may add to our understanding of HLV network organization and of the evolution of visual perceptual dysfunction in AD as the disease progresses. PMID:27445770

A Powerful Test for Comparing Multiple Regression Functions.

PubMed

Maity, Arnab

2012-09-01

In this article, we address the important problem of comparison of two or more population regression functions. Recently, Pardo-Fernández, Van Keilegom and González-Manteiga (2007) developed test statistics for simple nonparametric regression models: Y(ij) = θ(j)(Z(ij)) + σ(j)(Z(ij))∊(ij), based on empirical distributions of the errors in each population j = 1, … , J. In this paper, we propose a test for equality of the θ(j)(·) based on the concept of generalized likelihood ratio type statistics. We also generalize our test for other nonparametric regression setups, e.g, nonparametric logistic regression, where the loglikelihood for population j is any general smooth function [Formula: see text]. We describe a resampling procedure to obtain the critical values of the test. In addition, we present a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the proposed test and compare our results to those in Pardo-Fernández et al. (2007).

Culture, Masculine Honor, and Violence Toward Women.

PubMed

Brown, Ryan P; Baughman, Kiersten; Carvallo, Mauricio

2018-04-01

Prior research has connected the cultural ideology of honor to intrasexual violence between men and to attitudes supporting intersexual aggression in response to perceived honor violations by female romantic partners. We extend this research to show that honor ideology is also associated with an increased likelihood of men actually engaging in violent and sexually coercive behaviors toward women. Extending previous research on honor-based schemas and scripts linked to relationship violence, comparisons between honor states and non-honor states in the United States show that official rape and domestic homicide rates by White male perpetrators (Study 1) and experiences of rape and violence in relationships anonymously reported by White female teenagers (Study 2) were higher in honor states, controlling for a variety of potential confounds. These results extend prior laboratory research on honor-based schemas and scripts into the realm of extreme, real-world behaviors.

Error detection method

DOEpatents

Olson, Eric J.

2013-06-11

An apparatus, program product, and method that run an algorithm on a hardware based processor, generate a hardware error as a result of running the algorithm, generate an algorithm output for the algorithm, compare the algorithm output to another output for the algorithm, and detect the hardware error from the comparison. The algorithm is designed to cause the hardware based processor to heat to a degree that increases the likelihood of hardware errors to manifest, and the hardware error is observable in the algorithm output. As such, electronic components may be sufficiently heated and/or sufficiently stressed to create better conditions for generating hardware errors, and the output of the algorithm may be compared at the end of the run to detect a hardware error that occurred anywhere during the run that may otherwise not be detected by traditional methodologies (e.g., due to cooling, insufficient heat and/or stress, etc.).

A goodness-of-fit test for capture-recapture model M(t) under closure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.

1999-01-01

A new, fully efficient goodness-of-fit test for the time-specific closed-population capture-recapture model M(t) is presented. This test is based on the residual distribution of the capture history data given the maximum likelihood parameter estimates under model M(t), is partitioned into informative components, and is based on chi-square statistics. Comparison of this test with Leslie's test (Leslie, 1958, Journal of Animal Ecology 27, 84- 86) for model M(t), using Monte Carlo simulations, shows the new test generally outperforms Leslie's test. The new test is frequently computable when Leslie's test is not, has Type I error rates that are closer to nominal error rates than Leslie's test, and is sensitive to behavioral variation and heterogeneity in capture probabilities. Leslie's test is not sensitive to behavioral variation in capture probabilities but, when computable, has greater power to detect heterogeneity than the new test.

Neural Mechanisms for Integrating Prior Knowledge and Likelihood in Value-Based Probabilistic Inference

PubMed Central

Ting, Chih-Chung; Yu, Chia-Chen; Maloney, Laurence T.

2015-01-01

In Bayesian decision theory, knowledge about the probabilities of possible outcomes is captured by a prior distribution and a likelihood function. The prior reflects past knowledge and the likelihood summarizes current sensory information. The two combined (integrated) form a posterior distribution that allows estimation of the probability of different possible outcomes. In this study, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying Bayesian integration using a novel lottery decision task in which both prior knowledge and likelihood information about reward probability were systematically manipulated on a trial-by-trial basis. Consistent with Bayesian integration, as sample size increased, subjects tended to weigh likelihood information more compared with prior information. Using fMRI in humans, we found that the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) correlated with the mean of the posterior distribution, a statistic that reflects the integration of prior knowledge and likelihood of reward probability. Subsequent analysis revealed that both prior and likelihood information were represented in mPFC and that the neural representations of prior and likelihood in mPFC reflected changes in the behaviorally estimated weights assigned to these different sources of information in response to changes in the environment. Together, these results establish the role of mPFC in prior-likelihood integration and highlight its involvement in representing and integrating these distinct sources of information. PMID:25632152

Handwriting individualization using distance and rarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yi; Srihari, Sargur; Srinivasan, Harish

2012-01-01

Forensic individualization is the task of associating observed evidence with a specific source. The likelihood ratio (LR) is a quantitative measure that expresses the degree of uncertainty in individualization, where the numerator represents the likelihood that the evidence corresponds to the known and the denominator the likelihood that it does not correspond to the known. Since the number of parameters needed to compute the LR is exponential with the number of feature measurements, a commonly used simplification is the use of likelihoods based on distance (or similarity) given the two alternative hypotheses. This paper proposes an intermediate method which decomposes the LR as the product of two factors, one based on distance and the other on rarity. It was evaluated using a data set of handwriting samples, by determining whether two writing samples were written by the same/different writer(s). The accuracy of the distance and rarity method, as measured by error rates, is significantly better than the distance method.

Auto- and cross-power spectral analysis of dual trap optical tweezer experiments using Bayesian inference.

PubMed

von Hansen, Yann; Mehlich, Alexander; Pelz, Benjamin; Rief, Matthias; Netz, Roland R

2012-09-01

The thermal fluctuations of micron-sized beads in dual trap optical tweezer experiments contain complete dynamic information about the viscoelastic properties of the embedding medium and-if present-macromolecular constructs connecting the two beads. To quantitatively interpret the spectral properties of the measured signals, a detailed understanding of the instrumental characteristics is required. To this end, we present a theoretical description of the signal processing in a typical dual trap optical tweezer experiment accounting for polarization crosstalk and instrumental noise and discuss the effect of finite statistics. To infer the unknown parameters from experimental data, a maximum likelihood method based on the statistical properties of the stochastic signals is derived. In a first step, the method can be used for calibration purposes: We propose a scheme involving three consecutive measurements (both traps empty, first one occupied and second empty, and vice versa), by which all instrumental and physical parameters of the setup are determined. We test our approach for a simple model system, namely a pair of unconnected, but hydrodynamically interacting spheres. The comparison to theoretical predictions based on instantaneous as well as retarded hydrodynamics emphasizes the importance of hydrodynamic retardation effects due to vorticity diffusion in the fluid. For more complex experimental scenarios, where macromolecular constructs are tethered between the two beads, the same maximum likelihood method in conjunction with dynamic deconvolution theory will in a second step allow one to determine the viscoelastic properties of the tethered element connecting the two beads.

Parents’ perceptions of provider communication regarding adolescent vaccines

PubMed Central

Dempsey, Amanda F.; Pyrzanowski, Jennifer; Lockhart, Steven; Campagna, Elizabeth; Barnard, Juliana; O'Leary, Sean T.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Strong provider recommendations for adolescent vaccines are critical for achieving high vaccination levels.  However, little is known about parents’ preferred provider communication strategies for adolescent vaccines in general, and for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines specifically. We performed a cross-sectional survey of 800 parents of 9-14 year olds in April 2014 to assess current adolescent vaccine communication practices by providers, parents’ preferred HPV vaccine-specific communication strategies, and the association of these two outcomes with experiential, attitudinal and demographic characteristics.  Among the 356 parents in the study (response rate 48%), HPV vaccines were reported as less likely to have been “very strongly” recommended by their adolescent’s provider (39%) than other adolescent-targeted vaccines (45%-59%, <0.05 for all comparisons).  Receiving a very strong recommendation for HPV vaccines was associated with a higher likelihood of vaccine receipt (71% versus 39%, p<0.001), or among those not yet vaccinated, increased likelihood of positive vaccination intentions (82% vs. 60%, p = 0.015).  Nearly all parents (87%) reported that, if available, they would use a website providing personalized HPV vaccine-related materials before their adolescent’s next check-up, and other technology-based communications were also endorsed by the majority of parents.   From these data we conclude that parents received weaker recommendations for HPV vaccines than other adolescent vaccines, and that most parents want additional HPV vaccine-related materials, preferably delivered using a variety of technology-based modalities which is not their providers’ current practice. PMID:27078515

Power calculations for likelihood ratio tests for offspring genotype risks, maternal effects, and parent-of-origin (POO) effects in the presence of missing parental genotypes when unaffected siblings are available.

PubMed

Rampersaud, E; Morris, R W; Weinberg, C R; Speer, M C; Martin, E R

2007-01-01

Genotype-based likelihood-ratio tests (LRT) of association that examine maternal and parent-of-origin effects have been previously developed in the framework of log-linear and conditional logistic regression models. In the situation where parental genotypes are missing, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been incorporated in the log-linear approach to allow incomplete triads to contribute to the LRT. We present an extension to this model which we call the Combined_LRT that incorporates additional information from the genotypes of unaffected siblings to improve assignment of incompletely typed families to mating type categories, thereby improving inference of missing parental data. Using simulations involving a realistic array of family structures, we demonstrate the validity of the Combined_LRT under the null hypothesis of no association and provide power comparisons under varying levels of missing data and using sibling genotype data. We demonstrate the improved power of the Combined_LRT compared with the family-based association test (FBAT), another widely used association test. Lastly, we apply the Combined_LRT to a candidate gene analysis in Autism families, some of which have missing parental genotypes. We conclude that the proposed log-linear model will be an important tool for future candidate gene studies, for many complex diseases where unaffected siblings can often be ascertained and where epigenetic factors such as imprinting may play a role in disease etiology.

Earthquake likelihood model testing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a wide range of possible testing procedures exist. Jolliffe and Stephenson (2003) present different forecast verifications from atmospheric science, among them likelihood testing of probability forecasts and testing the occurrence of binary events. Testing binary events requires that for each forecasted event, the spatial, temporal and magnitude limits be given. Although major earthquakes can be considered binary events, the models within the RELM project express their forecasts on a spatial grid and in 0.1 magnitude units; thus the results are a distribution of rates over space and magnitude. These forecasts can be tested with likelihood tests.In general, likelihood tests assume a valid null hypothesis against which a given hypothesis is tested. The outcome is either a rejection of the null hypothesis in favor of the test hypothesis or a nonrejection, meaning the test hypothesis cannot outperform the null hypothesis at a given significance level. Within RELM, there is no accepted null hypothesis and thus the likelihood test needs to be expanded to allow comparable testing of equipollent hypotheses.To test models against one another, we require that forecasts are expressed in a standard format: the average rate of earthquake occurrence within pre-specified limits of hypocentral latitude, longitude, depth, magnitude, time period, and focal mechanisms. Focal mechanisms should either be described as the inclination of P-axis, declination of P-axis, and inclination of the T-axis, or as strike, dip, and rake angles. Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger (2007, this issue) designed classes of these parameters such that similar models will be tested against each other. These classes make the forecasts comparable between models. Additionally, we are limited to testing only what is precisely defined and consistently reported in earthquake catalogs. Therefore it is currently not possible to test such information as fault rupture length or area, asperity location, etc. Also, to account for data quality issues, we allow for location and magnitude uncertainties as well as the probability that an event is dependent on another event.As we mentioned above, only models with comparable forecasts can be tested against each other. Our current tests are designed to examine grid-based models. This requires that any fault-based model be adapted to a grid before testing is possible. While this is a limitation of the testing, it is an inherent difficulty in any such comparative testing. Please refer to appendix B for a statistical evaluation of the application of the Poisson hypothesis to fault-based models.The testing suite we present consists of three different tests: L-Test, N-Test, and R-Test. These tests are defined similarily to Kagan and Jackson (1995). The first two tests examine the consistency of the hypotheses with the observations while the last test compares the spatial performances of the models.

A peer-based intervention to educate liver transplant candidates about living donor liver transplantation.

PubMed

Delair, Samantha; Feeley, Thomas Hugh; Kim, Hyunjung; Del Rio Martin, Juan; Kim-Schluger, Leona; Lapointe Rudow, Dianne; Orloff, Mark; Sheiner, Patricia A; Teperman, Lewis

2010-01-01

The number of liver donors has not measurably increased since 2004 and has begun to decrease. Although many waitlisted patients may be suitable candidates to receive a living donor graft, they are often reticent to discuss living donation with close friends and family, partly because of a lack of knowledge about donor health and quality of life outcomes after donation. The objective of this study was to test the effectiveness of an educational intervention that uses testimonials and self-report data from living donors in New York State. The study had an independent sample pretest (n = 437) and posttest (n = 338) design with posttest, between-subjects comparison for intervention exposure. All waitlisted patients at 5 liver transplant centers in New York were provided a peer-based educational brochure and DVD either by mail or at the clinic. The outcome measures were liver candidates' knowledge and self-efficacy to discuss living donation with family and friends. The number and proportion of individuals who presented to centers for living liver donation evaluation were also measured. Liver transplant candidates' self-efficacy to discuss living donation and their knowledge increased from the pretest period to the posttest period. Those exposed to the peer-based intervention reported significantly greater knowledge, a greater likelihood of discussing donation, and increased self-efficacy in comparison with those not exposed to the intervention. The results did not differ by age, length of time on the waiting list, education, or ethnicity. In comparison with the preintervention period, living donation increased 42%, and the number of individuals who presented for donation evaluation increased by 74%.

Collinear Latent Variables in Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis: A Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Estimations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Can, Seda; van de Schoot, Rens; Hox, Joop

2015-01-01

Because variables may be correlated in the social and behavioral sciences, multicollinearity might be problematic. This study investigates the effect of collinearity manipulated in within and between levels of a two-level confirmatory factor analysis by Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the influence of the size of the intraclass correlation…

Ramsay-Curve Item Response Theory for the Three-Parameter Logistic Item Response Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Carol M.

2008-01-01

In Ramsay-curve item response theory (RC-IRT), the latent variable distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters of a unidimensional item response model using marginal maximum likelihood estimation. This study evaluates RC-IRT for the three-parameter logistic (3PL) model with comparisons to the normal model and to the empirical…

A Comparison of Maximum-Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Methods of Treating Incomplete Nonnormal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gold, Michael S.; Bentler, Peter M.; Kim, Kevin H.

2003-01-01

This article describes a Monte Carlo study of 2 methods for treating incomplete nonnormal data. Skewed, kurtotic data sets conforming to a single structured model, but varying in sample size, percentage of data missing, and missing-data mechanism, were produced. An asymptotically distribution-free available-case (ADFAC) method and structured-model…

Comparison of the side-needle and knife techniques for inducing Aspergillus flavus infection and aflatoxin accumulation in corn hybrids

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Aflatoxin in corn grain is a problem in many areas of the world. Any combination of environmentally stressful or agronomically unfavorable conditions can increase the likelihood of Aspergillus flavus infection and production of aflatoxin in the corn grain. In the absence of a consistent natural A....

Bayesian Estimation of Multidimensional Item Response Models. A Comparison of Analytic and Simulation Algorithms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin-Fernandez, Manuel; Revuelta, Javier

2017-01-01

This study compares the performance of two estimation algorithms of new usage, the Metropolis-Hastings Robins-Monro (MHRM) and the Hamiltonian MCMC (HMC), with two consolidated algorithms in the psychometric literature, the marginal likelihood via EM algorithm (MML-EM) and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), in the estimation of multidimensional…

Multilevel Modeling in the Presence of Outliers: A Comparison of Robust Estimation Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, Holmes

2017-01-01

Multilevel models (MLMs) have proven themselves to be very useful in social science research, as data from a variety of sources is sampled such that individuals at level-1 are nested within clusters such as schools, hospitals, counseling centers, and business entities at level-2. MLMs using restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML) provide…

Lord's Wald Test for Detecting Dif in Multidimensional Irt Models: A Comparison of Two Estimation Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Soo; Suh, Youngsuk

2018-01-01

Lord's Wald test for differential item functioning (DIF) has not been studied extensively in the context of the multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) framework. In this article, Lord's Wald test was implemented using two estimation approaches, marginal maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation, to detect…

Talking about, Knowing about HIV/AIDS in Canada: A Rural-Urban Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veinot, Tiffany C.; Harris, Roma

2011-01-01

Purpose: To explore information exchange about HIV/AIDS among people living in rural and urban communities and to assess the value of social capital theory, as well as demographic factors, in predicting community members' knowledge of HIV/AIDS and their likelihood of having talked about the disease. Method: A random-digit dial telephone survey was…

Detecting the contagion effect in mass killings; a constructive example of the statistical advantages of unbinned likelihood methods.

PubMed

Towers, Sherry; Mubayi, Anuj; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2018-01-01

When attempting to statistically distinguish between a null and an alternative hypothesis, many researchers in the life and social sciences turn to binned statistical analysis methods, or methods that are simply based on the moments of a distribution (such as the mean, and variance). These methods have the advantage of simplicity of implementation, and simplicity of explanation. However, when null and alternative hypotheses manifest themselves in subtle differences in patterns in the data, binned analysis methods may be insensitive to these differences, and researchers may erroneously fail to reject the null hypothesis when in fact more sensitive statistical analysis methods might produce a different result when the null hypothesis is actually false. Here, with a focus on two recent conflicting studies of contagion in mass killings as instructive examples, we discuss how the use of unbinned likelihood methods makes optimal use of the information in the data; a fact that has been long known in statistical theory, but perhaps is not as widely appreciated amongst general researchers in the life and social sciences. In 2015, Towers et al published a paper that quantified the long-suspected contagion effect in mass killings. However, in 2017, Lankford & Tomek subsequently published a paper, based upon the same data, that claimed to contradict the results of the earlier study. The former used unbinned likelihood methods, and the latter used binned methods, and comparison of distribution moments. Using these analyses, we also discuss how visualization of the data can aid in determination of the most appropriate statistical analysis methods to distinguish between a null and alternate hypothesis. We also discuss the importance of assessment of the robustness of analysis results to methodological assumptions made (for example, arbitrary choices of number of bins and bin widths when using binned methods); an issue that is widely overlooked in the literature, but is critical to analysis reproducibility and robustness. When an analysis cannot distinguish between a null and alternate hypothesis, care must be taken to ensure that the analysis methodology itself maximizes the use of information in the data that can distinguish between the two hypotheses. The use of binned methods by Lankford & Tomek (2017), that examined how many mass killings fell within a 14 day window from a previous mass killing, substantially reduced the sensitivity of their analysis to contagion effects. The unbinned likelihood methods used by Towers et al (2015) did not suffer from this problem. While a binned analysis might be favorable for simplicity and clarity of presentation, unbinned likelihood methods are preferable when effects might be somewhat subtle.

Detecting the contagion effect in mass killings; a constructive example of the statistical advantages of unbinned likelihood methods

PubMed Central

Mubayi, Anuj; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2018-01-01

Background When attempting to statistically distinguish between a null and an alternative hypothesis, many researchers in the life and social sciences turn to binned statistical analysis methods, or methods that are simply based on the moments of a distribution (such as the mean, and variance). These methods have the advantage of simplicity of implementation, and simplicity of explanation. However, when null and alternative hypotheses manifest themselves in subtle differences in patterns in the data, binned analysis methods may be insensitive to these differences, and researchers may erroneously fail to reject the null hypothesis when in fact more sensitive statistical analysis methods might produce a different result when the null hypothesis is actually false. Here, with a focus on two recent conflicting studies of contagion in mass killings as instructive examples, we discuss how the use of unbinned likelihood methods makes optimal use of the information in the data; a fact that has been long known in statistical theory, but perhaps is not as widely appreciated amongst general researchers in the life and social sciences. Methods In 2015, Towers et al published a paper that quantified the long-suspected contagion effect in mass killings. However, in 2017, Lankford & Tomek subsequently published a paper, based upon the same data, that claimed to contradict the results of the earlier study. The former used unbinned likelihood methods, and the latter used binned methods, and comparison of distribution moments. Using these analyses, we also discuss how visualization of the data can aid in determination of the most appropriate statistical analysis methods to distinguish between a null and alternate hypothesis. We also discuss the importance of assessment of the robustness of analysis results to methodological assumptions made (for example, arbitrary choices of number of bins and bin widths when using binned methods); an issue that is widely overlooked in the literature, but is critical to analysis reproducibility and robustness. Conclusions When an analysis cannot distinguish between a null and alternate hypothesis, care must be taken to ensure that the analysis methodology itself maximizes the use of information in the data that can distinguish between the two hypotheses. The use of binned methods by Lankford & Tomek (2017), that examined how many mass killings fell within a 14 day window from a previous mass killing, substantially reduced the sensitivity of their analysis to contagion effects. The unbinned likelihood methods used by Towers et al (2015) did not suffer from this problem. While a binned analysis might be favorable for simplicity and clarity of presentation, unbinned likelihood methods are preferable when effects might be somewhat subtle. PMID:29742115

Occupational outcomes of adult childhood cancer survivors: A report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PubMed Central

Kirchhoff, Anne C.; Krull, Kevin R.; Ness, Kirsten K.; Park, Elyse R.; Oeffinger, Kevin C.; Hudson, Melissa M.; Stovall, Marilyn; Robison, Leslie L.; Wickizer, Thomas; Leisenring, Wendy

2010-01-01

Background We examined whether survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study were less likely to be in higher skill occupations than a sibling comparison and whether certain survivors were at higher risk. Methods We created three mutually-exclusive occupational categories for participants aged ≥25 years: Managerial/Professional and Non-Physical and Physical Service/Blue Collar. We examined currently employed survivors (N=4845) and siblings (N=1727) in multivariable generalized linear models to evaluate the likelihood of being in the three occupational categories. Among all participants, we used multinomial logistic regression to examine the likelihood of these outcomes in comparison to being unemployed (survivors N=6671; siblings N=2129). Multivariable linear models were used to assess survivor occupational differences by cancer and treatment variables. Personal income was compared by occupation. Results Employed survivors were less often in higher skilled Managerial/Professional occupations (Relative Risk=0.93, 95% Confidence Interval 0.89–0.98) than siblings. Survivors who were Black, were diagnosed at a younger age, or had high-dose cranial radiation were less likely to hold Professional occupations than other survivors. In multinomial models, female survivors’ likelihood of being in full-time Professional occupations (27%) was lower than male survivors (42%) and female (41%) and male (50%) siblings. Survivors’ personal income was lower than siblings within each of the three occupational categories in models adjusted for sociodemographic variables. Conclusions Adult childhood cancer survivors are employed in lower skill jobs than siblings. Survivors with certain treatment histories are at higher risk and may require vocational assistance throughout adulthood. PMID:21246530

Bayesian Inference for the Stereotype Regression Model: Application to a Case-control Study of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Ahn, Jaeil; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Banerjee, Mousumi; Cooney, Kathleen A.

2011-01-01

Summary The stereotype regression model for categorical outcomes, proposed by Anderson (1984) is nested between the baseline category logits and adjacent category logits model with proportional odds structure. The stereotype model is more parsimonious than the ordinary baseline-category (or multinomial logistic) model due to a product representation of the log odds-ratios in terms of a common parameter corresponding to each predictor and category specific scores. The model could be used for both ordered and unordered outcomes. For ordered outcomes, the stereotype model allows more flexibility than the popular proportional odds model in capturing highly subjective ordinal scaling which does not result from categorization of a single latent variable, but are inherently multidimensional in nature. As pointed out by Greenland (1994), an additional advantage of the stereotype model is that it provides unbiased and valid inference under outcome-stratified sampling as in case-control studies. In addition, for matched case-control studies, the stereotype model is amenable to classical conditional likelihood principle, whereas there is no reduction due to sufficiency under the proportional odds model. In spite of these attractive features, the model has been applied less, as there are issues with maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood based testing approaches due to non-linearity and lack of identifiability of the parameters. We present comprehensive Bayesian inference and model comparison procedure for this class of models as an alternative to the classical frequentist approach. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing data from The Flint Men’s Health Study, a case-control study of prostate cancer in African-American men aged 40 to 79 years. We use clinical staging of prostate cancer in terms of Tumors, Nodes and Metastatsis (TNM) as the categorical response of interest. PMID:19731262

Using artificial intelligence to predict the risk for posterior capsule opacification after phacoemulsification.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Seyed-Farzad; Sabbaghi, Mostafa; Z-Mehrjardi, Hadi; Hashemi, Hassan; Alizadeh, Somayeh; Majdi, Mercede; Taee, Farough

2012-03-01

To apply artificial intelligence models to predict the occurrence of posterior capsule opacification (PCO) after phacoemulsification. Farabi Eye Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Clinical-based cross-sectional study. The posterior capsule status of eyes operated on for age-related cataract and the need for laser capsulotomy were determined. After a literature review, data polishing, and expert consultation, 10 input variables were selected. The QUEST algorithm was used to develop a decision tree. Three back-propagation artificial neural networks were constructed with 4, 20, and 40 neurons in 2 hidden layers and trained with the same transfer functions (log-sigmoid and linear transfer) and training protocol with randomly selected eyes. They were then tested on the remaining eyes and the networks compared for their performance. Performance indices were used to compare resultant models with the results of logistic regression analysis. The models were trained using 282 randomly selected eyes and then tested using 70 eyes. Laser capsulotomy for clinically significant PCO was indicated or had been performed 2 years postoperatively in 40 eyes. A sample decision tree was produced with accuracy of 50% (likelihood ratio 0.8). The best artificial neural network, which showed 87% accuracy and a positive likelihood ratio of 8, was achieved with 40 neurons. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve was 0.71. In comparison, logistic regression reached accuracy of 80%; however, the likelihood ratio was not measurable because the sensitivity was zero. A prototype artificial neural network was developed that predicted posterior capsule status (requiring capsulotomy) with reasonable accuracy. No author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2012 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

2010-01-01

This paper considers how procedures can be used to control risks faced by an organization and proposes a means of recognizing if a particular procedure reduces risk or contributes to the organization's exposure. The proposed method was developed out of the review of work documents and the governing procedures performed in the wake of the Columbia accident by NASA and the Space Shuttle prime contractor, United Space Alliance, LLC. A technique was needed to understand the rules, or procedural controls, in place at the time in the context of how important the role of each rule was. The proposed method assesses procedural risks, the residual risk associated with a hazard after a procedure's influence is accounted for, by considering each clause of a procedure as a unique procedural control that may be beneficial or harmful. For procedural risks with consequences severe enough to threaten the survival of the organization, the method measures the characteristics of each risk on a scale that is an alternative to the traditional consequence/likelihood couple. The dual benefits of the substitute scales are that they eliminate both the need to quantify a relationship between different consequence types and the need for the extensive history a probabilistic risk assessment would require. Control Value is used as an analog for the consequence, where the value of a rule is based on how well the control reduces the severity of the consequence when operating successfully. This value is composed of two parts: the inevitability of the consequence in the absence of the control, and the opportunity to intervene before the consequence is realized. High value controls will be ones where there is minimal need for intervention but maximum opportunity to actively prevent the outcome. Failure Likelihood is used as the substitute for the conventional likelihood of the outcome. For procedural controls, a failure is considered to be any non-malicious violation of the rule, whether intended or not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

Evaluating marginal likelihood with thermodynamic integration method and comparison with several other numerical methods

DOE PAGES

Liu, Peigui; Elshall, Ahmed S.; Ye, Ming; ...

2016-02-05

Evaluating marginal likelihood is the most critical and computationally expensive task, when conducting Bayesian model averaging to quantify parametric and model uncertainties. The evaluation is commonly done by using Laplace approximations to evaluate semianalytical expressions of the marginal likelihood or by using Monte Carlo (MC) methods to evaluate arithmetic or harmonic mean of a joint likelihood function. This study introduces a new MC method, i.e., thermodynamic integration, which has not been attempted in environmental modeling. Instead of using samples only from prior parameter space (as in arithmetic mean evaluation) or posterior parameter space (as in harmonic mean evaluation), the thermodynamicmore » integration method uses samples generated gradually from the prior to posterior parameter space. This is done through a path sampling that conducts Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with different power coefficient values applied to the joint likelihood function. The thermodynamic integration method is evaluated using three analytical functions by comparing the method with two variants of the Laplace approximation method and three MC methods, including the nested sampling method that is recently introduced into environmental modeling. The thermodynamic integration method outperforms the other methods in terms of their accuracy, convergence, and consistency. The thermodynamic integration method is also applied to a synthetic case of groundwater modeling with four alternative models. The application shows that model probabilities obtained using the thermodynamic integration method improves predictive performance of Bayesian model averaging. As a result, the thermodynamic integration method is mathematically rigorous, and its MC implementation is computationally general for a wide range of environmental problems.« less

Improvement and comparison of likelihood functions for model calibration and parameter uncertainty analysis within a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim

2014-11-01

In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.

Latent Growth Classes of Alcohol-Related Blackouts over the First Two Years of College

PubMed Central

Merrill, Jennifer E.; Treloar, Hayley; Fernandez, Anne C.; Monnig, Mollie A.; Jackson, Kristina M.; Barnett, Nancy P.

2016-01-01

Alcohol-related blackouts are common among college student drinkers. The present study extends prior work by examining latent growth classes of blackouts and several predictors of class membership. Participants (N=709 college drinkers) completed a baseline survey at college entry and biweekly online assessments throughout freshman and sophomore years. Results revealed five latent growth class trajectories, reflecting varying experiences of blackouts at the beginning of college and differential change in blackouts over time. The largest class represented a relatively low risk group (LOW DECR; 47.3%) characterized by endorsement of no or very low likelihood of blackouts, and decreasing likelihood of blackouts over time. Another decreasing risk group (HIGH DECR; 11.1%) initially reported a high proportion of blackouts and had the steepest decrease in blackout risk over time. A small percentage showed consistently high likelihood of blackouts over time (HIGH STABLE; 4.1%). The remaining two groups were distinguished by relatively moderate (MOD STABLE; 14.9%) and lower (LOW STABLE; 22.6%) likelihood of blackouts, which remained stable over time. Comparisons between classes revealed that students with greater perceived peer drinking, perceived peer approval of drinking, and enhancement motives upon entry to college tended to be in higher-risk groups with consistent experiences of blackouts over time, whereas blackout likelihood decreased over time for students with greater conformity motives. Findings suggest that pre-college preventive interventions may be strengthened by considering not only factors related to current risk for blackouts and other alcohol-related consequences, but also those factors related to persistence of these behaviors over time. PMID:27736145

A readers' guide to the interpretation of diagnostic test properties: clinical example of sepsis.

PubMed

Fischer, Joachim E; Bachmann, Lucas M; Jaeschke, Roman

2003-07-01

One of the most challenging practical and daily problems in intensive care medicine is the interpretation of the results from diagnostic tests. In neonatology and pediatric intensive care the early diagnosis of potentially life-threatening infections is a particularly important issue. A plethora of tests have been suggested to improve diagnostic decision making in the clinical setting of infection which is a clinical example used in this article. Several criteria that are critical to evidence-based appraisal of published data are often not adhered to during the study or in reporting. To enhance the critical appraisal on articles on diagnostic tests we discuss various measures of test accuracy: sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, likelihood ratios, pretest probability, posttest probability, and diagnostic odds ratio. We suggest the following minimal requirements for reporting on the diagnostic accuracy of tests: a plot of the raw data, multilevel likelihood ratios, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the cutoff yielding the highest discriminative ability. For critical appraisal it is mandatory to report confidence intervals for each of these measures. Moreover, to allow comparison to the readers' patient population authors should provide data on study population characteristics, in particular on the spectrum of diseases and illness severity.

Model selection and model averaging in phylogenetics: advantages of akaike information criterion and bayesian approaches over likelihood ratio tests.

PubMed

Posada, David; Buckley, Thomas R

2004-10-01

Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the selection of substitution models in phylogenetics from a theoretical, philosophical and practical point of view, and summarize this comparison in table format. We argue that the most commonly implemented model selection approach, the hierarchical likelihood ratio test, is not the optimal strategy for model selection in phylogenetics, and that approaches like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian methods offer important advantages. In particular, the latter two methods are able to simultaneously compare multiple nested or nonnested models, assess model selection uncertainty, and allow for the estimation of phylogenies and model parameters using all available models (model-averaged inference or multimodel inference). We also describe how the relative importance of the different parameters included in substitution models can be depicted. To illustrate some of these points, we have applied AIC-based model averaging to 37 mitochondrial DNA sequences from the subgenus Ohomopterus(genus Carabus) ground beetles described by Sota and Vogler (2001).

Maximum likelihood bolometric tomography for the determination of the uncertainties in the radiation emission on JET TOKAMAK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craciunescu, Teddy; Peluso, Emmanuele; Murari, Andrea; Gelfusa, Michela; JET Contributors

2018-05-01

The total emission of radiation is a crucial quantity to calculate the power balances and to understand the physics of any Tokamak. Bolometric systems are the main tool to measure this important physical quantity through quite sophisticated tomographic inversion methods. On the Joint European Torus, the coverage of the bolometric diagnostic, due to the availability of basically only two projection angles, is quite limited, rendering the inversion a very ill-posed mathematical problem. A new approach, based on the maximum likelihood, has therefore been developed and implemented to alleviate one of the major weaknesses of traditional tomographic techniques: the difficulty to determine routinely the confidence intervals in the results. The method has been validated by numerical simulations with phantoms to assess the quality of the results and to optimise the configuration of the parameters for the main types of emissivity encountered experimentally. The typical levels of statistical errors, which may significantly influence the quality of the reconstructions, have been identified. The systematic tests with phantoms indicate that the errors in the reconstructions are quite limited and their effect on the total radiated power remains well below 10%. A comparison with other approaches to the inversion and to the regularization has also been performed.

Evaluation of selective control information detection scheme in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing-based radio-over-fiber and visible light communication links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalarmelina, Carlos A.; Adegbite, Saheed A.; Pereira, Esequiel da V.; Nunes, Reginaldo B.; Rocha, Helder R. O.; Segatto, Marcelo E. V.; Silva, Jair A. L.

2017-05-01

Block-level detection is required to decode what may be classified as selective control information (SCI) such as control format indicator in 4G-long-term evolution systems. Using optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing over radio-over-fiber (RoF) links, we report the experimental evaluation of an SCI detection scheme based on a time-domain correlation (TDC) technique in comparison with the conventional maximum likelihood (ML) approach. When compared with the ML method, it is shown that the TDC method improves detection performance over both 20 and 40 km of standard single mode fiber (SSMF) links. We also report a performance analysis of the TDC scheme in noisy visible light communication channel models after propagation through 40 km of SSMF. Experimental and simulation results confirm that the TDC method is attractive for practical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing-based RoF and fiber-wireless systems. Unlike the ML method, another key benefit of the TDC is that it requires no channel estimation.

The Biogeography of Putative Microbial Antibiotic Production

PubMed Central

Bryant, Jessica A.; Charkoudian, Louise K.; Docherty, Kathryn M.; Jones, Evan; Kembel, Steven W.; Green, Jessica L.; Bohannan, Brendan J. M.

2015-01-01

Understanding patterns in the distribution and abundance of functional traits across a landscape is of fundamental importance to ecology. Mapping these distributions is particularly challenging for species-rich groups with sparse trait measurement coverage, such as flowering plants, insects, and microorganisms. Here, we use likelihood-based character reconstruction to infer and analyze the spatial distribution of unmeasured traits. We apply this framework to a microbial dataset comprised of 11,732 ketosynthase alpha gene sequences extracted from 144 soil samples from three continents to document the spatial distribution of putative microbial polyketide antibiotic production. Antibiotic production is a key competitive strategy for soil microbial survival and performance. Additionally, novel antibiotic discovery is highly relevant to human health, making natural antibiotic production by soil microorganisms a major target for bioprospecting. Our comparison of trait-based biogeographical patterns to patterns based on taxonomy and phylogeny is relevant to our basic understanding of microbial biogeography as well as the pressing need for new antibiotics. PMID:26102275

Abstracting of suspected illegal land use in urban areas using case-based classification of remote sensing images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fulong; Wang, Chao; Yang, Chengyun; Zhang, Hong; Wu, Fan; Lin, Wenjuan; Zhang, Bo

2008-11-01

This paper proposed a method that uses a case-based classification of remote sensing images and applied this method to abstract the information of suspected illegal land use in urban areas. Because of the discrete cases for imagery classification, the proposed method dealt with the oscillation of spectrum or backscatter within the same land use category, and it not only overcame the deficiency of maximum likelihood classification (the prior probability of land use could not be obtained) but also inherited the advantages of the knowledge-based classification system, such as artificial intelligence and automatic characteristics. Consequently, the proposed method could do the classifying better. Then the researchers used the object-oriented technique for shadow removal in highly dense city zones. With multi-temporal SPOT 5 images whose resolution was 2.5×2.5 meters, the researchers found that the method can abstract suspected illegal land use information in urban areas using post-classification comparison technique.

Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods.

PubMed

Drovandi, Christopher C; Pettitt, Anthony N

2013-12-01

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Evaluations and Comparisons of Treatment Effects Based on Best Combinations of Biomarkers with Applications to Biomedical Studies

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiwei; Yu, Jihnhee

2014-01-01

Abstract Many clinical and biomedical studies evaluate treatment effects based on multiple biomarkers that commonly consist of pre- and post-treatment measurements. Some biomarkers can show significant positive treatment effects, while other biomarkers can reflect no effects or even negative effects of the treatments, giving rise to a necessity to develop methodologies that may correctly and efficiently evaluate the treatment effects based on multiple biomarkers as a whole. In the setting of pre- and post-treatment measurements of multiple biomarkers, we propose to apply a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve methodology based on the best combination of biomarkers maximizing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-type criterion among all possible linear combinations. In the particular case with independent pre- and post-treatment measurements, we show that the proposed method represents the well-known Su and Liu's (1993) result. Further, proceeding from derived best combinations of biomarkers' measurements, we propose an efficient technique via likelihood ratio tests to compare treatment effects. We show an extensive Monte Carlo study that confirms the superiority of the proposed test in comparison with treatment effects based on multiple biomarkers in a paired data setting. For practical applications, the proposed method is illustrated with a randomized trial of chlorhexidine gluconate on oral bacterial pathogens in mechanically ventilated patients as well as a treatment study for children with attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder and severe mood dysregulation. PMID:25019920

Extending the Applicability of the Generalized Likelihood Function for Zero-Inflated Data Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Debora Y.; Chaffe, Pedro L. B.; Sá, João. H. M.

2018-03-01

Proper uncertainty estimation for data series with a high proportion of zero and near zero observations has been a challenge in hydrologic studies. This technical note proposes a modification to the Generalized Likelihood function that accounts for zero inflation of the error distribution (ZI-GL). We compare the performance of the proposed ZI-GL with the original Generalized Likelihood function using the entire data series (GL) and by simply suppressing zero observations (GLy>0). These approaches were applied to two interception modeling examples characterized by data series with a significant number of zeros. The ZI-GL produced better uncertainty ranges than the GL as measured by the precision, reliability and volumetric bias metrics. The comparison between ZI-GL and GLy>0 highlights the need for further improvement in the treatment of residuals from near zero simulations when a linear heteroscedastic error model is considered. Aside from the interception modeling examples illustrated herein, the proposed ZI-GL may be useful for other hydrologic studies, such as for the modeling of the runoff generation in hillslopes and ephemeral catchments.

An incremental DPMM-based method for trajectory clustering, modeling, and retrieval.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Li, Xi; Tian, Guodong; Maybank, Stephen; Zhang, Zhongfei

2013-05-01

Trajectory analysis is the basis for many applications, such as indexing of motion events in videos, activity recognition, and surveillance. In this paper, the Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) is applied to trajectory clustering, modeling, and retrieval. We propose an incremental version of a DPMM-based clustering algorithm and apply it to cluster trajectories. An appropriate number of trajectory clusters is determined automatically. When trajectories belonging to new clusters arrive, the new clusters can be identified online and added to the model without any retraining using the previous data. A time-sensitive Dirichlet process mixture model (tDPMM) is applied to each trajectory cluster for learning the trajectory pattern which represents the time-series characteristics of the trajectories in the cluster. Then, a parameterized index is constructed for each cluster. A novel likelihood estimation algorithm for the tDPMM is proposed, and a trajectory-based video retrieval model is developed. The tDPMM-based probabilistic matching method and the DPMM-based model growing method are combined to make the retrieval model scalable and adaptable. Experimental comparisons with state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Meta-analysis: accuracy of rapid tests for malaria in travelers returning from endemic areas.

PubMed

Marx, Arthur; Pewsner, Daniel; Egger, Matthias; Nüesch, Reto; Bucher, Heiner C; Genton, Blaise; Hatz, Christoph; Jüni, Peter

2005-05-17

Microscopic diagnosis of malaria is unreliable outside specialized centers. Rapid tests have become available in recent years, but their accuracy has not been assessed systematically. To determine the accuracy of rapid diagnostic tests for ruling out malaria in nonimmune travelers returning from malaria-endemic areas. The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CAB Health, and CINAHL (1988 to September 2004); hand-searched conference proceedings; checked reference lists; and contacted experts and manufacturers. Diagnostic accuracy studies in nonimmune individuals with suspected malaria were included if they compared rapid tests with expert microscopic examination or polymerase chain reaction tests. Data on study and patient characteristics and results were extracted in duplicate. The main outcome was the likelihood ratio for a negative test result (negative likelihood ratio) for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Likelihood ratios were combined by using random-effects meta-analysis, stratified by the antigen targeted (histidine-rich protein-2 [HRP-2] or parasite lactate dehydrogenase [LDH]) and by test generation. Nomograms of post-test probabilities were constructed. The authors included 21 studies and 5747 individuals. For P. falciparum, HRP-2-based tests were more accurate than parasite LDH-based tests: Negative likelihood ratios were 0.08 and 0.13, respectively (P = 0.019 for difference). Three-band HRP-2 tests had similar negative likelihood ratios but higher positive likelihood ratios compared with 2-band tests (34.7 vs. 98.5; P = 0.003). For P. vivax, negative likelihood ratios tended to be closer to 1.0 for HRP-2-based tests than for parasite LDH-based tests (0.24 vs. 0.13; P = 0.22), but analyses were based on a few heterogeneous studies. Negative likelihood ratios for the diagnosis of P. malariae or P. ovale were close to 1.0 for both types of tests. In febrile travelers returning from sub-Saharan Africa, the typical probability of P. falciparum malaria is estimated at 1.1% (95% CI, 0.6% to 1.9%) after a negative 3-band HRP-2 test result and 97% (CI, 92% to 99%) after a positive test result. Few studies evaluated 3-band HRP-2 tests. The evidence is also limited for species other than P. falciparum because of the few available studies and their more heterogeneous results. Further studies are needed to determine whether the use of rapid diagnostic tests improves outcomes in returning travelers with suspected malaria. Rapid malaria tests may be a useful diagnostic adjunct to microscopy in centers without major expertise in tropical medicine. Initial decisions on treatment initiation and choice of antimalarial drugs can be based on travel history and post-test probabilities after rapid testing. Expert microscopy is still required for species identification and confirmation.

Modeling forest bird species' likelihood of occurrence in Utah with Forest Inventory and Analysis and Landfire map products and ecologically based pseudo-absence points

Treesearch

Phoebe L. Zarnetske; Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen

2007-01-01

Estimating species likelihood of occurrence across extensive landscapes is a powerful management tool. Unfortunately, available occurrence data for landscape-scale modeling is often lacking and usually only in the form of observed presences. Ecologically based pseudo-absence points were generated from within habitat envelopes to accompany presence-only data in habitat...

Less-Complex Method of Classifying MPSK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamkins, Jon

2006-01-01

An alternative to an optimal method of automated classification of signals modulated with M-ary phase-shift-keying (M-ary PSK or MPSK) has been derived. The alternative method is approximate, but it offers nearly optimal performance and entails much less complexity, which translates to much less computation time. Modulation classification is becoming increasingly important in radio-communication systems that utilize multiple data modulation schemes and include software-defined or software-controlled receivers. Such a receiver may "know" little a priori about an incoming signal but may be required to correctly classify its data rate, modulation type, and forward error-correction code before properly configuring itself to acquire and track the symbol timing, carrier frequency, and phase, and ultimately produce decoded bits. Modulation classification has long been an important component of military interception of initially unknown radio signals transmitted by adversaries. Modulation classification may also be useful for enabling cellular telephones to automatically recognize different signal types and configure themselves accordingly. The concept of modulation classification as outlined in the preceding paragraph is quite general. However, at the present early stage of development, and for the purpose of describing the present alternative method, the term "modulation classification" or simply "classification" signifies, more specifically, a distinction between M-ary and M'-ary PSK, where M and M' represent two different integer multiples of 2. Both the prior optimal method and the present alternative method require the acquisition of magnitude and phase values of a number (N) of consecutive baseband samples of the incoming signal + noise. The prior optimal method is based on a maximum- likelihood (ML) classification rule that requires a calculation of likelihood functions for the M and M' hypotheses: Each likelihood function is an integral, over a full cycle of carrier phase, of a complicated sum of functions of the baseband sample values, the carrier phase, the carrier-signal and noise magnitudes, and M or M'. Then the likelihood ratio, defined as the ratio between the likelihood functions, is computed, leading to the choice of whichever hypothesis - M or M'- is more likely. In the alternative method, the integral in each likelihood function is approximated by a sum over values of the integrand sampled at a number, 1, of equally spaced values of carrier phase. Used in this way, 1 is a parameter that can be adjusted to trade computational complexity against the probability of misclassification. In the limit as 1 approaches infinity, one obtains the integral form of the likelihood function and thus recovers the ML classification. The present approximate method has been tested in comparison with the ML method by means of computational simulations. The results of the simulations have shown that the performance (as quantified by probability of misclassification) of the approximate method is nearly indistinguishable from that of the ML method (see figure).

Consensus building for interlaboratory studies, key comparisons, and meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koepke, Amanda; Lafarge, Thomas; Possolo, Antonio; Toman, Blaza

2017-06-01

Interlaboratory studies in measurement science, including key comparisons, and meta-analyses in several fields, including medicine, serve to intercompare measurement results obtained independently, and typically produce a consensus value for the common measurand that blends the values measured by the participants. Since interlaboratory studies and meta-analyses reveal and quantify differences between measured values, regardless of the underlying causes for such differences, they also provide so-called ‘top-down’ evaluations of measurement uncertainty. Measured values are often substantially over-dispersed by comparison with their individual, stated uncertainties, thus suggesting the existence of yet unrecognized sources of uncertainty (dark uncertainty). We contrast two different approaches to take dark uncertainty into account both in the computation of consensus values and in the evaluation of the associated uncertainty, which have traditionally been preferred by different scientific communities. One inflates the stated uncertainties by a multiplicative factor. The other adds laboratory-specific ‘effects’ to the value of the measurand. After distinguishing what we call recipe-based and model-based approaches to data reductions in interlaboratory studies, we state six guiding principles that should inform such reductions. These principles favor model-based approaches that expose and facilitate the critical assessment of validating assumptions, and give preeminence to substantive criteria to determine which measurement results to include, and which to exclude, as opposed to purely statistical considerations, and also how to weigh them. Following an overview of maximum likelihood methods, three general purpose procedures for data reduction are described in detail, including explanations of how the consensus value and degrees of equivalence are computed, and the associated uncertainty evaluated: the DerSimonian-Laird procedure; a hierarchical Bayesian procedure; and the Linear Pool. These three procedures have been implemented and made widely accessible in a Web-based application (NIST Consensus Builder). We illustrate principles, statistical models, and data reduction procedures in four examples: (i) the measurement of the Newtonian constant of gravitation; (ii) the measurement of the half-lives of radioactive isotopes of caesium and strontium; (iii) the comparison of two alternative treatments for carotid artery stenosis; and (iv) a key comparison where the measurand was the calibration factor of a radio-frequency power sensor.

Likelihood testing of seismicity-based rate forecasts of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Mueller, Charles

2016-01-01

Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1-year period of earthquake data and use of 10–20-km smoothing distances produced the greatest likelihood. The likelihood that the locations of January–June 2015 earthquakes were consistent with optimized forecasts decayed with increasing elapsed time between the catalogs used for model development and testing. Likelihood tests with two additional sets of earthquakes from 2014 exhibit a strong sensitivity of the rate of decay to the smoothing distance. Marked reductions in likelihood are caused by the nonstationarity of the induced earthquake locations. Our results indicate a multiple-fold benefit from smoothed seismicity models in developing short-term earthquake rate forecasts for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas, relative to the use of seismic source zones.

The role of self-regulatory efficacy, moral disengagement and guilt on doping likelihood: A social cognitive theory perspective.

PubMed

Ring, Christopher; Kavussanu, Maria

2018-03-01

Given the concern over doping in sport, researchers have begun to explore the role played by self-regulatory processes in the decision whether to use banned performance-enhancing substances. Grounded on Bandura's (1991) theory of moral thought and action, this study examined the role of self-regulatory efficacy, moral disengagement and anticipated guilt on the likelihood to use a banned substance among college athletes. Doping self-regulatory efficacy was associated with doping likelihood both directly (b = -.16, P < .001) and indirectly (b = -.29, P < .001) through doping moral disengagement. Moral disengagement also contributed directly to higher doping likelihood and lower anticipated guilt about doping, which was associated with higher doping likelihood. Overall, the present findings provide evidence to support a model of doping based on Bandura's social cognitive theory of moral thought and action, in which self-regulatory efficacy influences the likelihood to use banned performance-enhancing substances both directly and indirectly via moral disengagement.

Compatibility of pedigree-based and marker-based relationship matrices for single-step genetic evaluation.

PubMed

Christensen, Ole F

2012-12-03

Single-step methods provide a coherent and conceptually simple approach to incorporate genomic information into genetic evaluations. An issue with single-step methods is compatibility between the marker-based relationship matrix for genotyped animals and the pedigree-based relationship matrix. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the marker-based relationship matrix to the pedigree-based relationship matrix. Moreover, with data from routine evaluations, this adjustment should in principle be based on both observed marker genotypes and observed phenotypes, but until now this has been overlooked. In this paper, I propose a new method to address this issue by 1) adjusting the pedigree-based relationship matrix to be compatible with the marker-based relationship matrix instead of the reverse and 2) extending the single-step genetic evaluation using a joint likelihood of observed phenotypes and observed marker genotypes. The performance of this method is then evaluated using two simulated datasets. The method derived here is a single-step method in which the marker-based relationship matrix is constructed assuming all allele frequencies equal to 0.5 and the pedigree-based relationship matrix is constructed using the unusual assumption that animals in the base population are related and inbred with a relationship coefficient γ and an inbreeding coefficient γ / 2. Taken together, this γ parameter and a parameter that scales the marker-based relationship matrix can handle the issue of compatibility between marker-based and pedigree-based relationship matrices. The full log-likelihood function used for parameter inference contains two terms. The first term is the REML-log-likelihood for the phenotypes conditional on the observed marker genotypes, whereas the second term is the log-likelihood for the observed marker genotypes. Analyses of the two simulated datasets with this new method showed that 1) the parameters involved in adjusting marker-based and pedigree-based relationship matrices can depend on both observed phenotypes and observed marker genotypes and 2) a strong association between these two parameters exists. Finally, this method performed at least as well as a method based on adjusting the marker-based relationship matrix. Using the full log-likelihood and adjusting the pedigree-based relationship matrix to be compatible with the marker-based relationship matrix provides a new and interesting approach to handle the issue of compatibility between the two matrices in single-step genetic evaluation.

Patch-based image reconstruction for PET using prior-image derived dictionaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahaei, Marzieh S.; Reader, Andrew J.

2016-09-01

In PET image reconstruction, regularization is often needed to reduce the noise in the resulting images. Patch-based image processing techniques have recently been successfully used for regularization in medical image reconstruction through a penalized likelihood framework. Re-parameterization within reconstruction is another powerful regularization technique in which the object in the scanner is re-parameterized using coefficients for spatially-extensive basis vectors. In this work, a method for extracting patch-based basis vectors from the subject’s MR image is proposed. The coefficients for these basis vectors are then estimated using the conventional MLEM algorithm. Furthermore, using the alternating direction method of multipliers, an algorithm for optimizing the Poisson log-likelihood while imposing sparsity on the parameters is also proposed. This novel method is then utilized to find sparse coefficients for the patch-based basis vectors extracted from the MR image. The results indicate the superiority of the proposed methods to patch-based regularization using the penalized likelihood framework.

MCMC multilocus lod scores: application of a new approach.

PubMed

George, Andrew W; Wijsman, Ellen M; Thompson, Elizabeth A

2005-01-01

On extended pedigrees with extensive missing data, the calculation of multilocus likelihoods for linkage analysis is often beyond the computational bounds of exact methods. Growing interest therefore surrounds the implementation of Monte Carlo estimation methods. In this paper, we demonstrate the speed and accuracy of a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for the estimation of linkage likelihoods through an analysis of real data from a study of early-onset Alzheimer's disease. For those data sets where comparison with exact analysis is possible, we achieved up to a 100-fold increase in speed. Our approach is implemented in the program lm_bayes within the framework of the freely available MORGAN 2.6 package for Monte Carlo genetic analysis (http://www.stat.washington.edu/thompson/Genepi/MORGAN/Morgan.shtml).

Estimation of longitudinal stability and control derivatives for an icing research aircraft from flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batterson, James G.; Omara, Thomas M.

1989-01-01

The results of applying a modified stepwise regression algorithm and a maximum likelihood algorithm to flight data from a twin-engine commuter-class icing research aircraft are presented. The results are in the form of body-axis stability and control derivatives related to the short-period, longitudinal motion of the aircraft. Data were analyzed for the baseline (uniced) and for the airplane with an artificial glaze ice shape attached to the leading edge of the horizontal tail. The results are discussed as to the accuracy of the derivative estimates and the difference between the derivative values found for the baseline and the iced airplane. Additional comparisons were made between the maximum likelihood results and the modified stepwise regression results with causes for any discrepancies postulated.

Fuzzy multinomial logistic regression analysis: A multi-objective programming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalla, Hesham A.; El-Sayed, Amany A.; Hamed, Ramadan

2017-05-01

Parameter estimation for multinomial logistic regression is usually based on maximizing the likelihood function. For large well-balanced datasets, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation is a satisfactory approach. Unfortunately, ML can fail completely or at least produce poor results in terms of estimated probabilities and confidence intervals of parameters, specially for small datasets. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy concepts is proposed to estimate parameters of the multinomial logistic regression. The study assumes that the parameters of multinomial logistic regression are fuzzy. Based on the extension principle stated by Zadeh and Bárdossy's proposition, a multi-objective programming approach is suggested to estimate these fuzzy parameters. A simulation study is used to evaluate the performance of the new approach versus Maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Results show that the new proposed model outperforms ML in cases of small datasets.

Responsibility, thought-action fusion, and thought suppression in Turkish patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Yorulmaz, O; Karanci, A N; Bastug, B; Kisa, C; Goka, E

2008-03-01

Although an inflated sense of responsibility, thought-action fusion, and thought suppression are influential factors in cognitive models of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), their impact on OCD has generally been demonstrated in samples from Western countries. The aim of the present study is to evaluate these cognitive factors in Turkish patients with OCD, other anxiety disorders, and community controls. Group comparisons showed that responsibility based on self-dangerousness and thought suppression significantly distinguished OCD patients from patients with other anxiety disorders and controls. Moreover, correlation and discriminant function analyses indicated that thought-action fusion in morality and likelihood was also associated with OCD symptoms. The present findings provide support for the international validity and specificity of cognitive factors and model for OCD.

Characterization and classification of South American land cover types using satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townshend, J. R. G.; Justice, C. O.; Kalb, V.

1987-01-01

Various methods are compared for carrying out land cover classifications of South America using multitemporal Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data. Fifty-two images of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from a 1-year period are used to generate multitemporal data sets. Three main approaches to land cover classification are considered, namely the use of the principal components transformed images, the use of a characteristic curves procedure based on NDVI values plotted against time, and finally application of the maximum likelihood rule to multitemporal data sets. Comparison of results from training sites indicates that the last approach yields the most accurate results. Despite the reliance on training site figures for performance assessment, the results are nevertheless extremely encouraging, with accuracies for several cover types exceeding 90 per cent.

Land use/land cover mapping (1:25000) of Taiwan, Republic of China by automated multispectral interpretation of LANDSAT imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sung, Q. C.; Miller, L. D.

1977-01-01

Three methods were tested for collection of the training sets needed to establish the spectral signatures of the land uses/land covers sought due to the difficulties of retrospective collection of representative ground control data. Computer preprocessing techniques applied to the digital images to improve the final classification results were geometric corrections, spectral band or image ratioing and statistical cleaning of the representative training sets. A minimal level of statistical verification was made based upon the comparisons between the airphoto estimates and the classification results. The verifications provided a further support to the selection of MSS band 5 and 7. It also indicated that the maximum likelihood ratioing technique can achieve more agreeable classification results with the airphoto estimates than the stepwise discriminant analysis.

Comparison of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frehlich, Rod

1995-01-01

The performance of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar is presented in terms of the statistical distribution of the maximum-likelihood velocity estimator from simulations for fixed range resolution and fixed velocity search space as a function of the number of coherent photoelectrons per estimate. The wavelength dependence of the aerosol backscatter coefficient, the detector quantum efficiency, and the atmospheric extinction produce a simple shift of the performance curves. Results are presented for a typical boundary layer measurement and a space-based measurement for two regimes: the pulse-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the transmitted pulse, and the atmospheric-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the velocity fluctuations over the range gate. The optimal choice of wavelength depends on the problem under consideration.

Use pattern and predictors of use of highly caffeinated energy drinks among South Korean adolescents: a study using the Health Belief Model.

PubMed

Ha, Dongmun; Song, Inmyung; Jang, Gyeongil; Lee, Eui-Kyung; Shin, Ju-Young

2017-09-24

Concerns about the use of highly caffeinated energy drinks among Korean adolescents remains. We compared adolescents' perceptions regarding the use of drinks to their behaviours and factors. A structured questionnaire based on the Health Belief Model was administered to 850 freshmen and sophomores at three high schools in Bucheon, South Korea. Benefits were defined as beneficial effects from the use of highly caffeinated energy drinks (eg, awakening from sleepiness) and harms as adverse effects of the drinks (eg, cardiac palpitation). Likelihood of action represents the likelihood of taking actions that are perceived to be more beneficial after comparison of the benefits and harms of caffeine use. Descriptive analysis was used to quantify the relationship between their beliefs about highly caffeinated energy drinks and their use. We conducted hierarchical logistic regression to compute ORs and 95% CIs for: (1) demographic factors, (2) health threat, (3) likelihood of action and (4) cues to act. Altogether, 833 students responded to the questionnaire (effective response rate=98.0%). About 63.0% reported use of highly caffeinated energy drinks and 35.2% had used them as needed and habitually. The more susceptible the respondents perceived themselves to be to the risk of using these drinks, the less likely they were to use them (OR: 0.73, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.06). The more severe the perception of a health threat, the less that perception was associated with use (OR: 0.44, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.67). Likelihood of action was the strongest predictor of use, explaining 12.5% in use. Benefits and harms (OR: 4.43, 95% CI 2.77 to 7.09; OR: 1.86, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.99) also were significant predictors. Enhancing adolescents' perceptions of benefits and harms regarding using highly caffeinated energy drinks could be an effective way to influence the use of these drinks. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

New quests for better attitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuster, Malcolm D.

1991-01-01

During the past few years considerable insight was gained into the QUEST algorithm both as a maximum likelihood estimator and as a Kalman filter/smoother for systems devoid of dynamical noise. The new algorithms and software are described and analytical comparisons are made with the more conventional attitude Kalman filter. It is also described how they may be accommodated to noisy dynamical systems.

Tests of Independence in Contingency Tables with Small Samples: A Comparison of Statistical Power.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parshall, Cynthia G.; Kromrey, Jeffrey D.

1996-01-01

Power and Type I error rates were estimated for contingency tables with small sample sizes for the following four types of tests: (1) Pearson's chi-square; (2) chi-square with Yates's continuity correction; (3) the likelihood ratio test; and (4) Fisher's Exact Test. Various marginal distributions, sample sizes, and effect sizes were examined. (SLD)

A Comparison of General and Specific Instructions to Promote Task Engagement and Completion by a Young Man with Asperger Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bouxsein, Kelly J.; Tiger, Jeffrey H.; Fisher, Wayne W.

2008-01-01

Previous research has suggested that the topography of instructions (general vs. specific) may influence the likelihood that young children comply with instructions. The purpose of the current study was to compare the rates of task completion of a young man diagnosed with Asperger syndrome when provided with general and specific instructions…

Effect of a Spaced Thinning in Mature Lodgepole Pine on Within-Stand Microclimate and Fine Fuel Moisture Content

Treesearch

R. J. Whitehead; G. L. Russo; B. C. Hawkes; S. W. Taylor; B. N. Brown; H. J. Barclay; R. A. Benton

2006-01-01

Thinning mature forest stands to wide spacing is prescribed to reduce crown bulk density and likelihood of severe crown fire behaviour. However, it may adversely affect surface fuel load, moisture content and within-stand wind, which influence surface fire behaviour and crowning potential. Comparison of a mature lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl....

Defensive Operations in a Decisive Action Training Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

the alpha reduced the likelihood of mistaking a false result for a true finding/effect. Control Versus Experimental Group Comparisons Chi...was made between control and experimental groups. The experimental group received a Guide for DO with the intent of improving performance on...Planning, Execution, and Overall performance. There were no significant differences between control and experimental groups. Further analysis revealed

Predicting Tree Mortality From Diameter Growth: A Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Approaches

Treesearch

Peter H. Wychoff; James S. Clark

2000-01-01

Ecologists and foresters have long noted a link between tree growth rate and mortality, and recent work suggests that i&erspecific differences in low growth tolerauce is a key force shaping forest structure. Little information is available, however, on the growth-mortality relationship for most species. We present three methods for estimating growth-mortality...

Does English Language Learner (ELL) Identification Predict College Remediation Designation? A Comparison by Race and Ethnicity, and ELL Waiver Status

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flores, Stella M.; Drake, Timothy A.

2014-01-01

Using individual-level longitudinal state administrative data, this analysis examines whether English language learner (ELL) status increases the likelihood of being designated as needing college remediation. We track a cohort of ELL and non-ELL students from first grade to college entry and investigate whether there are differences in students'…

Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nickol, Craig L.

2008-01-01

A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

SCI Identification (SCIDNT) program user's guide. [maximum likelihood method for linear rotorcraft models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The computer program Linear SCIDNT which evaluates rotorcraft stability and control coefficients from flight or wind tunnel test data is described. It implements the maximum likelihood method to maximize the likelihood function of the parameters based on measured input/output time histories. Linear SCIDNT may be applied to systems modeled by linear constant-coefficient differential equations. This restriction in scope allows the application of several analytical results which simplify the computation and improve its efficiency over the general nonlinear case.

Efficient Bayesian experimental design for contaminant source identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.

2013-12-01

In this study, an efficient full Bayesian approach is developed for the optimal sampling well location design and source parameter identification of groundwater contaminants. An information measure, i.e., the relative entropy, is employed to quantify the information gain from indirect concentration measurements in identifying unknown source parameters such as the release time, strength and location. In this approach, the sampling location that gives the maximum relative entropy is selected as the optimal one. Once the sampling location is determined, a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate unknown source parameters. In both the design and estimation, the contaminant transport equation is required to be solved many times to evaluate the likelihood. To reduce the computational burden, an interpolation method based on the adaptive sparse grid is utilized to construct a surrogate for the contaminant transport. The approximated likelihood can be evaluated directly from the surrogate, which greatly accelerates the design and estimation process. The accuracy and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated through numerical case studies. Compared with the traditional optimal design, which is based on the Gaussian linear assumption, the method developed in this study can cope with arbitrary nonlinearity. It can be used to assist in groundwater monitor network design and identification of unknown contaminant sources. Contours of the expected information gain. The optimal observing location corresponds to the maximum value. Posterior marginal probability densities of unknown parameters, the thick solid black lines are for the designed location. For comparison, other 7 lines are for randomly chosen locations. The true values are denoted by vertical lines. It is obvious that the unknown parameters are estimated better with the desinged location.

Penalized maximum likelihood reconstruction for x-ray differential phase-contrast tomography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brendel, Bernhard, E-mail: bernhard.brendel@philips.com; Teuffenbach, Maximilian von; Noël, Peter B.

2016-01-15

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to propose a cost function with regularization to iteratively reconstruct attenuation, phase, and scatter images simultaneously from differential phase contrast (DPC) acquisitions, without the need of phase retrieval, and examine its properties. Furthermore this reconstruction method is applied to an acquisition pattern that is suitable for a DPC tomographic system with continuously rotating gantry (sliding window acquisition), overcoming the severe smearing in noniterative reconstruction. Methods: We derive a penalized maximum likelihood reconstruction algorithm to directly reconstruct attenuation, phase, and scatter image from the measured detector values of a DPC acquisition. The proposed penaltymore » comprises, for each of the three images, an independent smoothing prior. Image quality of the proposed reconstruction is compared to images generated with FBP and iterative reconstruction after phase retrieval. Furthermore, the influence between the priors is analyzed. Finally, the proposed reconstruction algorithm is applied to experimental sliding window data acquired at a synchrotron and results are compared to reconstructions based on phase retrieval. Results: The results show that the proposed algorithm significantly increases image quality in comparison to reconstructions based on phase retrieval. No significant mutual influence between the proposed independent priors could be observed. Further it could be illustrated that the iterative reconstruction of a sliding window acquisition results in images with substantially reduced smearing artifacts. Conclusions: Although the proposed cost function is inherently nonconvex, it can be used to reconstruct images with less aliasing artifacts and less streak artifacts than reconstruction methods based on phase retrieval. Furthermore, the proposed method can be used to reconstruct images of sliding window acquisitions with negligible smearing artifacts.« less

Coalescent-Based Analyses of Genomic Sequence Data Provide a Robust Resolution of Phylogenetic Relationships among Major Groups of Gibbons

PubMed Central

Shi, Cheng-Min; Yang, Ziheng

2018-01-01

Abstract The phylogenetic relationships among extant gibbon species remain unresolved despite numerous efforts using morphological, behavorial, and genetic data and the sequencing of whole genomes. A major challenge in reconstructing the gibbon phylogeny is the radiative speciation process, which resulted in extremely short internal branches in the species phylogeny and extensive incomplete lineage sorting with extensive gene-tree heterogeneity across the genome. Here, we analyze two genomic-scale data sets, with ∼10,000 putative noncoding and exonic loci, respectively, to estimate the species tree for the major groups of gibbons. We used the Bayesian full-likelihood method bpp under the multispecies coalescent model, which naturally accommodates incomplete lineage sorting and uncertainties in the gene trees. For comparison, we included three heuristic coalescent-based methods (mp-est, SVDQuartets, and astral) as well as concatenation. From both data sets, we infer the phylogeny for the four extant gibbon genera to be (Hylobates, (Nomascus, (Hoolock, Symphalangus))). We used simulation guided by the real data to evaluate the accuracy of the methods used. Astral, while not as efficient as bpp, performed well in estimation of the species tree even in presence of excessive incomplete lineage sorting. Concatenation, mp-est and SVDQuartets were unreliable when the species tree contains very short internal branches. Likelihood ratio test of gene flow suggests a small amount of migration from Hylobates moloch to H. pileatus, while cross-genera migration is absent or rare. Our results highlight the utility of coalescent-based methods in addressing challenging species tree problems characterized by short internal branches and rampant gene tree-species tree discordance. PMID:29087487

An exclusive human milk-based diet in extremely premature infants reduces the probability of remaining on total parenteral nutrition: a reanalysis of the data.

PubMed

Ghandehari, Heli; Lee, Martin L; Rechtman, David J

2012-04-25

We have previously shown that an exclusively human milk-based diet is beneficial for extremely premature infants who are at risk for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). However, no significant difference in the other primary study endpoint, the length of time on total parenteral nutrition (TPN), was found. The current analysis re-evaluates these data from a different statistical perspective considering the probability or likelihood of needing TPN on any given day rather than the number of days on TPN. This study consisted of 207 premature infants randomized into three groups: one group receiving a control diet of human milk, formula and bovine-based fortifier ("control diet"), and the other two groups receiving only human milk and human milk-based fortifier starting at different times in the enteral feeding process (at feeding volumes of 40 or 100 mL/kg/day; "HM40" and "HM100", respectively). The counting process Cox proportional hazards survival model was used to determine the likelihood of needing TPN in each group. The two groups on the completely human-based diet had an 11-14 % reduction in the likelihood of needing nutrition via TPN when compared to infants on the control diet (p = 0.0001 and p = 0.001, respectively for the HM40 and HM100 groups, respectively). This was even more pronounced if the initial period of TPN was excluded (p < 0.0001 for both the HM40 and HM100 groups). A completely human milk-based diet significantly reduces the likelihood of TPN use for extremely premature infants when compared to a diet including cow-based products. This likelihood may be reduced even further when the human milk fortifier is initiated earlier in the feeding process. This study was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov reg. # NCT00506584.

Urinary bladder segmentation in CT urography using deep-learning convolutional neural network and level sets

PubMed Central

Cha, Kenny H.; Hadjiiski, Lubomir; Samala, Ravi K.; Chan, Heang-Ping; Caoili, Elaine M.; Cohan, Richard H.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The authors are developing a computerized system for bladder segmentation in CT urography (CTU) as a critical component for computer-aided detection of bladder cancer. Methods: A deep-learning convolutional neural network (DL-CNN) was trained to distinguish between the inside and the outside of the bladder using 160 000 regions of interest (ROI) from CTU images. The trained DL-CNN was used to estimate the likelihood of an ROI being inside the bladder for ROIs centered at each voxel in a CTU case, resulting in a likelihood map. Thresholding and hole-filling were applied to the map to generate the initial contour for the bladder, which was then refined by 3D and 2D level sets. The segmentation performance was evaluated using 173 cases: 81 cases in the training set (42 lesions, 21 wall thickenings, and 18 normal bladders) and 92 cases in the test set (43 lesions, 36 wall thickenings, and 13 normal bladders). The computerized segmentation accuracy using the DL likelihood map was compared to that using a likelihood map generated by Haar features and a random forest classifier, and that using our previous conjoint level set analysis and segmentation system (CLASS) without using a likelihood map. All methods were evaluated relative to the 3D hand-segmented reference contours. Results: With DL-CNN-based likelihood map and level sets, the average volume intersection ratio, average percent volume error, average absolute volume error, average minimum distance, and the Jaccard index for the test set were 81.9% ± 12.1%, 10.2% ± 16.2%, 14.0% ± 13.0%, 3.6 ± 2.0 mm, and 76.2% ± 11.8%, respectively. With the Haar-feature-based likelihood map and level sets, the corresponding values were 74.3% ± 12.7%, 13.0% ± 22.3%, 20.5% ± 15.7%, 5.7 ± 2.6 mm, and 66.7% ± 12.6%, respectively. With our previous CLASS with local contour refinement (LCR) method, the corresponding values were 78.0% ± 14.7%, 16.5% ± 16.8%, 18.2% ± 15.0%, 3.8 ± 2.3 mm, and 73.9% ± 13.5%, respectively. Conclusions: The authors demonstrated that the DL-CNN can overcome the strong boundary between two regions that have large difference in gray levels and provides a seamless mask to guide level set segmentation, which has been a problem for many gradient-based segmentation methods. Compared to our previous CLASS with LCR method, which required two user inputs to initialize the segmentation, DL-CNN with level sets achieved better segmentation performance while using a single user input. Compared to the Haar-feature-based likelihood map, the DL-CNN-based likelihood map could guide the level sets to achieve better segmentation. The results demonstrate the feasibility of our new approach of using DL-CNN in combination with level sets for segmentation of the bladder. PMID:27036584

On the Performance of Maximum Likelihood versus Means and Variance Adjusted Weighted Least Squares Estimation in CFA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beauducel, Andre; Herzberg, Philipp Yorck

2006-01-01

This simulation study compared maximum likelihood (ML) estimation with weighted least squares means and variance adjusted (WLSMV) estimation. The study was based on confirmatory factor analyses with 1, 2, 4, and 8 factors, based on 250, 500, 750, and 1,000 cases, and on 5, 10, 20, and 40 variables with 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 categories. There was no…

The Equivalence of Information-Theoretic and Likelihood-Based Methods for Neural Dimensionality Reduction

PubMed Central

Williamson, Ross S.; Sahani, Maneesh; Pillow, Jonathan W.

2015-01-01

Stimulus dimensionality-reduction methods in neuroscience seek to identify a low-dimensional space of stimulus features that affect a neuron’s probability of spiking. One popular method, known as maximally informative dimensions (MID), uses an information-theoretic quantity known as “single-spike information” to identify this space. Here we examine MID from a model-based perspective. We show that MID is a maximum-likelihood estimator for the parameters of a linear-nonlinear-Poisson (LNP) model, and that the empirical single-spike information corresponds to the normalized log-likelihood under a Poisson model. This equivalence implies that MID does not necessarily find maximally informative stimulus dimensions when spiking is not well described as Poisson. We provide several examples to illustrate this shortcoming, and derive a lower bound on the information lost when spiking is Bernoulli in discrete time bins. To overcome this limitation, we introduce model-based dimensionality reduction methods for neurons with non-Poisson firing statistics, and show that they can be framed equivalently in likelihood-based or information-theoretic terms. Finally, we show how to overcome practical limitations on the number of stimulus dimensions that MID can estimate by constraining the form of the non-parametric nonlinearity in an LNP model. We illustrate these methods with simulations and data from primate visual cortex. PMID:25831448

Modeling phytoplankton community in reservoirs. A comparison between taxonomic and functional groups-based models.

PubMed

Di Maggio, Jimena; Fernández, Carolina; Parodi, Elisa R; Diaz, M Soledad; Estrada, Vanina

2016-01-01

In this paper we address the formulation of two mechanistic water quality models that differ in the way the phytoplankton community is described. We carry out parameter estimation subject to differential-algebraic constraints and validation for each model and comparison between models performance. The first approach aggregates phytoplankton species based on their phylogenetic characteristics (Taxonomic group model) and the second one, on their morpho-functional properties following Reynolds' classification (Functional group model). The latter approach takes into account tolerance and sensitivity to environmental conditions. The constrained parameter estimation problems are formulated within an equation oriented framework, with a maximum likelihood objective function. The study site is Paso de las Piedras Reservoir (Argentina), which supplies water for consumption for 450,000 population. Numerical results show that phytoplankton morpho-functional groups more closely represent each species growth requirements within the group. Each model performance is quantitatively assessed by three diagnostic measures. Parameter estimation results for seasonal dynamics of the phytoplankton community and main biogeochemical variables for a one-year time horizon are presented and compared for both models, showing the functional group model enhanced performance. Finally, we explore increasing nutrient loading scenarios and predict their effect on phytoplankton dynamics throughout a one-year time horizon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling.

PubMed

Scheike, Thomas H; Juul, Anders

2004-04-01

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used to obtain information additional to the relative risk estimates of covariates.

Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Lisboa, Renato; Mansouri, Kaweh; Zangwill, Linda M; Weinreb, Robert N; Medeiros, Felipe A

2013-11-01

To present a methodology for calculating likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis for continuous retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurements from spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (spectral-domain OCT). Observational cohort study. A total of 262 eyes of 187 patients with glaucoma and 190 eyes of 100 control subjects were included in the study. Subjects were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations Glaucoma Study. Eyes with preperimetric and perimetric glaucomatous damage were included in the glaucoma group. The control group was composed of healthy eyes with normal visual fields from subjects recruited from the general population. All eyes underwent RNFL imaging with Spectralis spectral-domain OCT. Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis were estimated for specific global RNFL thickness measurements using a methodology based on estimating the tangents to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Likelihood ratios could be determined for continuous values of average RNFL thickness. Average RNFL thickness values lower than 86 μm were associated with positive likelihood ratios (ie, likelihood ratios greater than 1), whereas RNFL thickness values higher than 86 μm were associated with negative likelihood ratios (ie, likelihood ratios smaller than 1). A modified Fagan nomogram was provided to assist calculation of posttest probability of disease from the calculated likelihood ratios and pretest probability of disease. The methodology allowed calculation of likelihood ratios for specific RNFL thickness values. By avoiding arbitrary categorization of test results, it potentially allows for an improved integration of test results into diagnostic clinical decision making. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Likelihood of cesarean delivery after applying leading active labor diagnostic guidelines.

PubMed

Neal, Jeremy L; Lowe, Nancy K; Phillippi, Julia C; Ryan, Sharon L; Knupp, Amy M; Dietrich, Mary S; Thung, Stephen F

2017-06-01

Friedman, the United Kingdom's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists/Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (ACOG/SMFM) support different active labor diagnostic guidelines. Our aims were to compare likelihoods for cesarean delivery among women admitted before vs in active labor by diagnostic guideline (within-guideline comparisons) and between women admitted in active labor per one or more of the guidelines (between-guideline comparisons). Active labor diagnostic guidelines were retrospectively applied to cervical examination data from nulliparous women with spontaneous labor onset (n = 2573). Generalized linear models were used to determine outcome likelihoods within- and between-guideline groups. At admission, 15.7%, 48.3%, and 10.1% of nulliparous women were in active labor per Friedman, NICE, and ACOG/SMFM diagnostic guidelines, respectively. Cesarean delivery was more likely among women admitted before vs in active labor per the Friedman (AOR 1.75 [95% CI 1.08-2.82] or NICE guideline (AOR 2.55 [95% CI 1.84-3.53]). Between guidelines, cesarean delivery was less likely among women admitted in active labor per the NICE guideline, as compared with the ACOG/SMFM guideline (AOR 0.55 [95% CI 0.35-0.88]). Many nulliparous women are admitted to the hospital before active labor onset. These women are significantly more likely to have a cesarean delivery. Diagnosing active labor before admission or before intervention to speed labor may be one component of a multi-faceted approach to decreasing the primary cesarean rate in the United States. The NICE diagnostic guideline is more inclusive than Friedman or ACOG/SMFM guidelines and its use may be the most clinically useful for safely lowering cesarean rates. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Scanning linear estimation: improvements over region of interest (ROI) methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kupinski, Meredith K.; Clarkson, Eric W.; Barrett, Harrison H.

2013-03-01

In tomographic medical imaging, a signal activity is typically estimated by summing voxels from a reconstructed image. We introduce an alternative estimation scheme that operates on the raw projection data and offers a substantial improvement, as measured by the ensemble mean-square error (EMSE), when compared to using voxel values from a maximum-likelihood expectation-maximization (MLEM) reconstruction. The scanning-linear (SL) estimator operates on the raw projection data and is derived as a special case of maximum-likelihood estimation with a series of approximations to make the calculation tractable. The approximated likelihood accounts for background randomness, measurement noise and variability in the parameters to be estimated. When signal size and location are known, the SL estimate of signal activity is unbiased, i.e. the average estimate equals the true value. By contrast, unpredictable bias arising from the null functions of the imaging system affect standard algorithms that operate on reconstructed data. The SL method is demonstrated for two different tasks: (1) simultaneously estimating a signal’s size, location and activity; (2) for a fixed signal size and location, estimating activity. Noisy projection data are realistically simulated using measured calibration data from the multi-module multi-resolution small-animal SPECT imaging system. For both tasks, the same set of images is reconstructed using the MLEM algorithm (80 iterations), and the average and maximum values within the region of interest (ROI) are calculated for comparison. This comparison shows dramatic improvements in EMSE for the SL estimates. To show that the bias in ROI estimates affects not only absolute values but also relative differences, such as those used to monitor the response to therapy, the activity estimation task is repeated for three different signal sizes.

Description and prediction of the income status of borderline patients over 10   years of prospective follow-up.

PubMed

Niesten, Isabella J M; Karan, Esen; Frankenburg, Frances R; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M; Zanarini, Mary C

2016-11-01

Research shows that individuals suffering from borderline personality disorder are economically disadvantaged, but longitudinal data is lacking. This study examined the income of borderline personality disorder (BPD) patients and axis II comparison subjects over 10 years of follow-up and assessed predictors of income among BPD patients. Data on income was obtained for 264 BPD patients and 63 axis II comparison subjects at 6-year follow-up and for surviving patients at five follow-up waves. Baseline and time-varying predictors of income were assessed using information from interviews and self-report measures. Regardless of diagnosis, a greater proportion of people shifted into the higher income groups over time. Being in a higher income group was more likely to happen and happened more rapidly for axis II comparison subjects than for BPD patients. Results regarding the BPD patients indicated that childhood emotional, verbal and/or physical abuse were associated with a greater likelihood of being in a lower income group, whereas years of education and a higher IQ were associated with a greater likelihood of being in a higher income group. Borderline personality disorder (BPD) patients show enduring lowered economic functioning. Their economic functioning seems to be negatively affected by childhood emotional, verbal and/or physical abuse but positively affected by years of education and IQ. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Which Statistic Should Be Used to Detect Item Preknowledge When the Set of Compromised Items Is Known?

PubMed

Sinharay, Sandip

2017-09-01

Benefiting from item preknowledge is a major type of fraudulent behavior during educational assessments. Belov suggested the posterior shift statistic for detection of item preknowledge and showed its performance to be better on average than that of seven other statistics for detection of item preknowledge for a known set of compromised items. Sinharay suggested a statistic based on the likelihood ratio test for detection of item preknowledge; the advantage of the statistic is that its null distribution is known. Results from simulated and real data and adaptive and nonadaptive tests are used to demonstrate that the Type I error rate and power of the statistic based on the likelihood ratio test are very similar to those of the posterior shift statistic. Thus, the statistic based on the likelihood ratio test appears promising in detecting item preknowledge when the set of compromised items is known.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

La Russa, D

Purpose: The purpose of this project is to develop a robust method of parameter estimation for a Poisson-based TCP model using Bayesian inference. Methods: Bayesian inference was performed using the PyMC3 probabilistic programming framework written in Python. A Poisson-based TCP regression model that accounts for clonogen proliferation was fit to observed rates of local relapse as a function of equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions for a population of 623 stage-I non-small-cell lung cancer patients. The Slice Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was used to sample the posterior distributions, and was initiated using the maximum of the posterior distributionsmore » found by optimization. The calculation of TCP with each sample step required integration over the free parameter α, which was performed using an adaptive 24-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. Convergence was verified via inspection of the trace plot and posterior distribution for each of the fit parameters, as well as with comparisons of the most probable parameter values with their respective maximum likelihood estimates. Results: Posterior distributions for α, the standard deviation of α (σ), the average tumour cell-doubling time (Td), and the repopulation delay time (Tk), were generated assuming α/β = 10 Gy, and a fixed clonogen density of 10{sup 7} cm−{sup 3}. Posterior predictive plots generated from samples from these posterior distributions are in excellent agreement with the observed rates of local relapse used in the Bayesian inference. The most probable values of the model parameters also agree well with maximum likelihood estimates. Conclusion: A robust method of performing Bayesian inference of TCP data using a complex TCP model has been established.« less

Imposing constraints on parameter values of a conceptual hydrological model using baseflow response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, S. M.

Calibration of conceptual hydrological models is frequently limited by a lack of data about the area that is being studied. The result is that a broad range of parameter values can be identified that will give an equally good calibration to the available observations, usually of stream flow. The use of total stream flow can bias analyses towards interpretation of rapid runoff, whereas water quality issues are more frequently associated with low flow condition. This paper demonstrates how model distinctions between surface an sub-surface runoff can be used to define a likelihood measure based on the sub-surface (or baseflow) response. This helps to provide more information about the model behaviour, constrain the acceptable parameter sets and reduce uncertainty in streamflow prediction. A conceptual model, DIY, is applied to two contrasting catchments in Scotland, the Ythan and the Carron Valley. Parameter ranges and envelopes of prediction are identified using criteria based on total flow efficiency, baseflow efficiency and combined efficiencies. The individual parameter ranges derived using the combined efficiency measures still cover relatively wide bands, but are better constrained for the Carron than the Ythan. This reflects the fact that hydrological behaviour in the Carron is dominated by a much flashier surface response than in the Ythan. Hence, the total flow efficiency is more strongly controlled by surface runoff in the Carron and there is a greater contrast with the baseflow efficiency. Comparisons of the predictions using different efficiency measures for the Ythan also suggest that there is a danger of confusing parameter uncertainties with data and model error, if inadequate likelihood measures are defined.

Likelihood-Ratio DIF Testing: Effects of Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Carol M.

2008-01-01

Differential item functioning (DIF) occurs when an item has different measurement properties for members of one group versus another. Likelihood-ratio (LR) tests for DIF based on item response theory (IRT) involve statistically comparing IRT models that vary with respect to their constraints. A simulation study evaluated how violation of the…

Robust Multipoint Water-Fat Separation Using Fat Likelihood Analysis

PubMed Central

Yu, Huanzhou; Reeder, Scott B.; Shimakawa, Ann; McKenzie, Charles A.; Brittain, Jean H.

2016-01-01

Fat suppression is an essential part of routine MRI scanning. Multiecho chemical-shift based water-fat separation methods estimate and correct for Bo field inhomogeneity. However, they must contend with the intrinsic challenge of water-fat ambiguity that can result in water-fat swapping. This problem arises because the signals from two chemical species, when both are modeled as a single discrete spectral peak, may appear indistinguishable in the presence of Bo off-resonance. In conventional methods, the water-fat ambiguity is typically removed by enforcing field map smoothness using region growing based algorithms. In reality, the fat spectrum has multiple spectral peaks. Using this spectral complexity, we introduce a novel concept that identifies water and fat for multiecho acquisitions by exploiting the spectral differences between water and fat. A fat likelihood map is produced to indicate if a pixel is likely to be water-dominant or fat-dominant by comparing the fitting residuals of two different signal models. The fat likelihood analysis and field map smoothness provide complementary information, and we designed an algorithm (Fat Likelihood Analysis for Multiecho Signals) to exploit both mechanisms. It is demonstrated in a wide variety of data that the Fat Likelihood Analysis for Multiecho Signals algorithm offers highly robust water-fat separation for 6-echo acquisitions, particularly in some previously challenging applications. PMID:21842498

Three methods to construct predictive models using logistic regression and likelihood ratios to facilitate adjustment for pretest probability give similar results.

PubMed

Chan, Siew Foong; Deeks, Jonathan J; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les

2008-01-01

To compare three predictive models based on logistic regression to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios allowing for interdependency between diagnostic variables (tests). This study was a review of the theoretical basis, assumptions, and limitations of published models; and a statistical extension of methods and application to a case study of the diagnosis of obstructive airways disease based on history and clinical examination. Albert's method includes an offset term to estimate an adjusted likelihood ratio for combinations of tests. Spiegelhalter and Knill-Jones method uses the unadjusted likelihood ratio for each test as a predictor and computes shrinkage factors to allow for interdependence. Knottnerus' method differs from the other methods because it requires sequencing of tests, which limits its application to situations where there are few tests and substantial data. Although parameter estimates differed between the models, predicted "posttest" probabilities were generally similar. Construction of predictive models using logistic regression is preferred to the independence Bayes' approach when it is important to adjust for dependency of tests errors. Methods to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios from predictive models should be considered in preference to a standard logistic regression model to facilitate ease of interpretation and application. Albert's method provides the most straightforward approach.

A Comparison of Four Year Health Outcomes following Combat Amputation and Limb Salvage

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-25

without amputation (limb salvage, n = 107). Patient medi- cal records were analyzed for four years postinjury. After adjusting for group differences...likelihood of osteoporosis during the first year postinjury. The prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder increased for all patient groups over four ...between the patient groups over time. Longitudinal results (repeated measures). Repeated measure analyses were conducted for four years postinjury

Crystal structure of hemoglobin from the maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) using synchrotron radiation.

PubMed

Fadel, Valmir; Canduri, Fernanda; Olivieri, Johnny R; Smarra, André L S; Colombo, Marcio F; Bonilla-Rodriguez, Gustavo O; de Azevedo, Walter F

2003-12-01

Crystal structure of hemoglobin isolated from the Brazilian maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) was determined using standard molecular replacement technique and refined using maximum-likelihood and simulated annealing protocols to 1.87A resolution. Structural and functional comparisons between hemoglobins from the Chrysocyon brachyurus and Homo sapiens are discussed, in order to provide further insights in the comparative biochemistry of vertebrate hemoglobins.

Hybrid Stochastic Models for Remaining Lifetime Prognosis

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-08-01

literature for techniques and comparisons. Os- ogami and Harchol-Balter [70], Perros [73], Johnson [36], and Altiok [5] provide excellent summaries of...and type of PH-distribution approximation for c2 > 0.5 is not as obvious. In order to use the minimum distance estimation, Perros [73] indicated that...moment-matching techniques. Perros [73] indicated that the maximum likelihood and minimum distance techniques require nonlinear optimization. Johnson

Atmospheric correction analysis on LANDSAT data over the Amazon region. [Manaus, Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Dias, L. A. V.; Dossantos, J. R.; Formaggio, A. R.

1983-01-01

The Amazon Region natural resources were studied in two ways and compared. A LANDSAT scene and its attributes were selected, and a maximum likelihood classification was made. The scene was atmospherically corrected, taking into account Amazonic peculiarities revealed by (ground truth) of the same area, and the subsequent classification. Comparison shows that the classification improves with the atmospherically corrected images.

When Can Categorical Variables Be Treated as Continuous? A Comparison of Robust Continuous and Categorical SEM Estimation Methods under Suboptimal Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhemtulla, Mijke; Brosseau-Liard, Patricia E.; Savalei, Victoria

2012-01-01

A simulation study compared the performance of robust normal theory maximum likelihood (ML) and robust categorical least squares (cat-LS) methodology for estimating confirmatory factor analysis models with ordinal variables. Data were generated from 2 models with 2-7 categories, 4 sample sizes, 2 latent distributions, and 5 patterns of category…

Minimum Expected Risk Estimation for Near-neighbor Classification

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-04-01

We consider the problems of class probability estimation and classification when using near-neighbor classifiers, such as k-nearest neighbors ( kNN ...estimate for weighted kNN classifiers with different prior information, for a broad class of risk functions. Theory and simulations show how significant...the difference is compared to the standard maximum likelihood weighted kNN estimates. Comparisons are made with uniform weights, symmetric weights

pplacer: linear time maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic placement of sequences onto a fixed reference tree

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Likelihood-based phylogenetic inference is generally considered to be the most reliable classification method for unknown sequences. However, traditional likelihood-based phylogenetic methods cannot be applied to large volumes of short reads from next-generation sequencing due to computational complexity issues and lack of phylogenetic signal. "Phylogenetic placement," where a reference tree is fixed and the unknown query sequences are placed onto the tree via a reference alignment, is a way to bring the inferential power offered by likelihood-based approaches to large data sets. Results This paper introduces pplacer, a software package for phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization. The algorithm can place twenty thousand short reads on a reference tree of one thousand taxa per hour per processor, has essentially linear time and memory complexity in the number of reference taxa, and is easy to run in parallel. Pplacer features calculation of the posterior probability of a placement on an edge, which is a statistically rigorous way of quantifying uncertainty on an edge-by-edge basis. It also can inform the user of the positional uncertainty for query sequences by calculating expected distance between placement locations, which is crucial in the estimation of uncertainty with a well-sampled reference tree. The software provides visualizations using branch thickness and color to represent number of placements and their uncertainty. A simulation study using reads generated from 631 COG alignments shows a high level of accuracy for phylogenetic placement over a wide range of alignment diversity, and the power of edge uncertainty estimates to measure placement confidence. Conclusions Pplacer enables efficient phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization, making likelihood-based phylogenetics methodology practical for large collections of reads; it is freely available as source code, binaries, and a web service. PMID:21034504

Spatial hydrological drought characteristics in Karkheh River basin, southwest Iran using copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodangeh, Esmaeel; Shahedi, Kaka; Shiau, Jenq-Tzong; MirAkbari, Maryam

2017-08-01

Investigation on drought characteristics such as severity, duration, and frequency is crucial for water resources planning and management in a river basin. While the methodology for multivariate drought frequency analysis is well established by applying the copulas, the estimation on the associated parameters by various parameter estimation methods and the effects on the obtained results have not yet been investigated. This research aims at conducting a comparative analysis between the maximum likelihood parametric and non-parametric method of the Kendall τ estimation method for copulas parameter estimation. The methods were employed to study joint severity-duration probability and recurrence intervals in Karkheh River basin (southwest Iran) which is facing severe water-deficit problems. Daily streamflow data at three hydrological gauging stations (Tang Sazbon, Huleilan and Polchehr) near the Karkheh dam were used to draw flow duration curves (FDC) of these three stations. The Q_{75} index extracted from the FDC were set as threshold level to abstract drought characteristics such as drought duration and severity on the basis of the run theory. Drought duration and severity were separately modeled using the univariate probabilistic distributions and gamma-GEV, LN2-exponential, and LN2-gamma were selected as the best paired drought severity-duration inputs for copulas according to the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square tests. Archimedean Clayton, Frank, and extreme value Gumbel copulas were employed to construct joint cumulative distribution functions (JCDF) of droughts for each station. Frank copula at Tang Sazbon and Gumbel at Huleilan and Polchehr stations were identified as the best copulas based on the performance evaluation criteria including AIC, BIC, log-likelihood and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Based on the RMSE values, nonparametric Kendall-τ is preferred to the parametric maximum likelihood estimation method. The results showed greater drought return periods by the parametric ML method in comparison to the nonparametric Kendall τ estimation method. The results also showed that stations located in tributaries (Huleilan and Polchehr) have close return periods, while the station along the main river (Tang Sazbon) has the smaller return periods for the drought events with identical drought duration and severity.

Robust generative asymmetric GMM for brain MR image segmentation.

PubMed

Ji, Zexuan; Xia, Yong; Zheng, Yuhui

2017-11-01

Accurate segmentation of brain tissues from magnetic resonance (MR) images based on the unsupervised statistical models such as Gaussian mixture model (GMM) has been widely studied during last decades. However, most GMM based segmentation methods suffer from limited accuracy due to the influences of noise and intensity inhomogeneity in brain MR images. To further improve the accuracy for brain MR image segmentation, this paper presents a Robust Generative Asymmetric GMM (RGAGMM) for simultaneous brain MR image segmentation and intensity inhomogeneity correction. First, we develop an asymmetric distribution to fit the data shapes, and thus construct a spatial constrained asymmetric model. Then, we incorporate two pseudo-likelihood quantities and bias field estimation into the model's log-likelihood, aiming to exploit the neighboring priors of within-cluster and between-cluster and to alleviate the impact of intensity inhomogeneity, respectively. Finally, an expectation maximization algorithm is derived to iteratively maximize the approximation of the data log-likelihood function to overcome the intensity inhomogeneity in the image and segment the brain MR images simultaneously. To demonstrate the performances of the proposed algorithm, we first applied the proposed algorithm to a synthetic brain MR image to show the intermediate illustrations and the estimated distribution of the proposed algorithm. The next group of experiments is carried out in clinical 3T-weighted brain MR images which contain quite serious intensity inhomogeneity and noise. Then we quantitatively compare our algorithm to state-of-the-art segmentation approaches by using Dice coefficient (DC) on benchmark images obtained from IBSR and BrainWeb with different level of noise and intensity inhomogeneity. The comparison results on various brain MR images demonstrate the superior performances of the proposed algorithm in dealing with the noise and intensity inhomogeneity. In this paper, the RGAGMM algorithm is proposed which can simply and efficiently incorporate spatial constraints into an EM framework to simultaneously segment brain MR images and estimate the intensity inhomogeneity. The proposed algorithm is flexible to fit the data shapes, and can simultaneously overcome the influence of noise and intensity inhomogeneity, and hence is capable of improving over 5% segmentation accuracy comparing with several state-of-the-art algorithms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-reported stomach upset in travellers on cruise-based and land-based package holidays.

PubMed

Launders, Naomi J; Nichols, Gordon L; Cartwright, Rodney; Lawrence, Joanne; Jones, Jane; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

2014-01-01

International travellers are at a risk of infectious diseases not seen in their home country. Stomach upsets are common in travellers, including on cruise ships. This study compares the incidence of stomach upsets on land- and cruise-based holidays. A major British tour operator has administered a Customer Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ) to UK resident travellers aged 16 or more on return flights from their holiday abroad over many years. Data extracted from the CSQ was used to measure self-reported stomach upset in returning travellers. From summer 2000 through winter 2008, 6,863,092 questionnaires were completed; 6.6% were from cruise passengers. A higher percentage of land-based holiday-makers (7.2%) reported stomach upset in comparison to 4.8% of cruise passengers (RR = 1.5, p<0.0005). Reported stomach upset on cruises declined over the study period (7.1% in 2000 to 3.1% in 2008, p<0.0005). Over 25% of travellers on land-based holidays to Egypt and the Dominican Republic reported stomach upset. In comparison, the highest proportion of stomach upset in cruise ship travellers were reported following cruises departing from Egypt (14.8%) and Turkey (8.8%). In this large study of self-reported illness both demographic and holiday choice factors were shown to play a part in determining the likelihood of developing stomach upset while abroad. There is a lower cumulative incidence and declining rates of stomach upset in cruise passengers which suggest that the cruise industry has adopted operations (e.g. hygiene standards) that have reduced illness over recent years.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Approximated maximum likelihood estimation in multifractal random walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvsletten, O.; Rypdal, M.

2012-04-01

We present an approximated maximum likelihood method for the multifractal random walk processes of [E. Bacry , Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.64.026103 64, 026103 (2001)]. The likelihood is computed using a Laplace approximation and a truncation in the dependency structure for the latent volatility. The procedure is implemented as a package in the r computer language. Its performance is tested on synthetic data and compared to an inference approach based on the generalized method of moments. The method is applied to estimate parameters for various financial stock indices.

Tile-based Fisher ratio analysis of comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS) data using a null distribution approach.

PubMed

Parsons, Brendon A; Marney, Luke C; Siegler, W Christopher; Hoggard, Jamin C; Wright, Bob W; Synovec, Robert E

2015-04-07

Comprehensive two-dimensional (2D) gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS) is a versatile instrumental platform capable of collecting highly informative, yet highly complex, chemical data for a variety of samples. Fisher-ratio (F-ratio) analysis applied to the supervised comparison of sample classes algorithmically reduces complex GC × GC-TOFMS data sets to find class distinguishing chemical features. F-ratio analysis, using a tile-based algorithm, significantly reduces the adverse effects of chromatographic misalignment and spurious covariance of the detected signal, enhancing the discovery of true positives while simultaneously reducing the likelihood of detecting false positives. Herein, we report a study using tile-based F-ratio analysis whereby four non-native analytes were spiked into diesel fuel at several concentrations ranging from 0 to 100 ppm. Spike level comparisons were performed in two regimes: comparing the spiked samples to the nonspiked fuel matrix and to each other at relative concentration factors of two. Redundant hits were algorithmically removed by refocusing the tiled results onto the original high resolution pixel level data. To objectively limit the tile-based F-ratio results to only features which are statistically likely to be true positives, we developed a combinatorial technique using null class comparisons, called null distribution analysis, by which we determined a statistically defensible F-ratio cutoff for the analysis of the hit list. After applying null distribution analysis, spiked analytes were reliably discovered at ∼1 to ∼10 ppm (∼5 to ∼50 pg using a 200:1 split), depending upon the degree of mass spectral selectivity and 2D chromatographic resolution, with minimal occurrence of false positives. To place the relevance of this work among other methods in this field, results are compared to those for pixel and peak table-based approaches.

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

PubMed

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

Diffuse prior monotonic likelihood ratio test for evaluation of fused image quality measures.

PubMed

Wei, Chuanming; Kaplan, Lance M; Burks, Stephen D; Blum, Rick S

2011-02-01

This paper introduces a novel method to score how well proposed fused image quality measures (FIQMs) indicate the effectiveness of humans to detect targets in fused imagery. The human detection performance is measured via human perception experiments. A good FIQM should relate to perception results in a monotonic fashion. The method computes a new diffuse prior monotonic likelihood ratio (DPMLR) to facilitate the comparison of the H(1) hypothesis that the intrinsic human detection performance is related to the FIQM via a monotonic function against the null hypothesis that the detection and image quality relationship is random. The paper discusses many interesting properties of the DPMLR and demonstrates the effectiveness of the DPMLR test via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the DPMLR is used to score FIQMs with test cases considering over 35 scenes and various image fusion algorithms.

It's DE-licious: A Recipe for Differential Expression Analyses of RNA-seq Experiments Using Quasi-Likelihood Methods in edgeR.

PubMed

Lun, Aaron T L; Chen, Yunshun; Smyth, Gordon K

2016-01-01

RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) is widely used to profile transcriptional activity in biological systems. Here we present an analysis pipeline for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq experiments using the Rsubread and edgeR software packages. The basic pipeline includes read alignment and counting, filtering and normalization, modelling of biological variability and hypothesis testing. For hypothesis testing, we describe particularly the quasi-likelihood features of edgeR. Some more advanced downstream analysis steps are also covered, including complex comparisons, gene ontology enrichment analyses and gene set testing. The code required to run each step is described, along with an outline of the underlying theory. The chapter includes a case study in which the pipeline is used to study the expression profiles of mammary gland cells in virgin, pregnant and lactating mice.

flowVS: channel-specific variance stabilization in flow cytometry.

PubMed

Azad, Ariful; Rajwa, Bartek; Pothen, Alex

2016-07-28

Comparing phenotypes of heterogeneous cell populations from multiple biological conditions is at the heart of scientific discovery based on flow cytometry (FC). When the biological signal is measured by the average expression of a biomarker, standard statistical methods require that variance be approximately stabilized in populations to be compared. Since the mean and variance of a cell population are often correlated in fluorescence-based FC measurements, a preprocessing step is needed to stabilize the within-population variances. We present a variance-stabilization algorithm, called flowVS, that removes the mean-variance correlations from cell populations identified in each fluorescence channel. flowVS transforms each channel from all samples of a data set by the inverse hyperbolic sine (asinh) transformation. For each channel, the parameters of the transformation are optimally selected by Bartlett's likelihood-ratio test so that the populations attain homogeneous variances. The optimum parameters are then used to transform the corresponding channels in every sample. flowVS is therefore an explicit variance-stabilization method that stabilizes within-population variances in each channel by evaluating the homoskedasticity of clusters with a likelihood-ratio test. With two publicly available datasets, we show that flowVS removes the mean-variance dependence from raw FC data and makes the within-population variance relatively homogeneous. We demonstrate that alternative transformation techniques such as flowTrans, flowScape, logicle, and FCSTrans might not stabilize variance. Besides flow cytometry, flowVS can also be applied to stabilize variance in microarray data. With a publicly available data set we demonstrate that flowVS performs as well as the VSN software, a state-of-the-art approach developed for microarrays. The homogeneity of variance in cell populations across FC samples is desirable when extracting features uniformly and comparing cell populations with different levels of marker expressions. The newly developed flowVS algorithm solves the variance-stabilization problem in FC and microarrays by optimally transforming data with the help of Bartlett's likelihood-ratio test. On two publicly available FC datasets, flowVS stabilizes within-population variances more evenly than the available transformation and normalization techniques. flowVS-based variance stabilization can help in performing comparison and alignment of phenotypically identical cell populations across different samples. flowVS and the datasets used in this paper are publicly available in Bioconductor.

Using latent class analysis to model prescription medications in the measurement of falling among a community elderly population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Falls among the elderly are a major public health concern. Therefore, the possibility of a modeling technique which could better estimate fall probability is both timely and needed. Using biomedical, pharmacological and demographic variables as predictors, latent class analysis (LCA) is demonstrated as a tool for the prediction of falls among community dwelling elderly. Methods Using a retrospective data-set a two-step LCA modeling approach was employed. First, we looked for the optimal number of latent classes for the seven medical indicators, along with the patients’ prescription medication and three covariates (age, gender, and number of medications). Second, the appropriate latent class structure, with the covariates, were modeled on the distal outcome (fall/no fall). The default estimator was maximum likelihood with robust standard errors. The Pearson chi-square, likelihood ratio chi-square, BIC, Lo-Mendell-Rubin Adjusted Likelihood Ratio test and the bootstrap likelihood ratio test were used for model comparisons. Results A review of the model fit indices with covariates shows that a six-class solution was preferred. The predictive probability for latent classes ranged from 84% to 97%. Entropy, a measure of classification accuracy, was good at 90%. Specific prescription medications were found to strongly influence group membership. Conclusions In conclusion the LCA method was effective at finding relevant subgroups within a heterogenous at-risk population for falling. This study demonstrated that LCA offers researchers a valuable tool to model medical data. PMID:23705639

Usefulness of Two Aspergillus PCR Assays and Aspergillus Galactomannan and β-d-Glucan Testing of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Diagnosis of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis

PubMed Central

Urabe, Naohisa; Sano, Go; Suzuki, Junko; Hebisawa, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Koyama, Kazuya; Ishii, Yoshikazu; Tateda, Kazuhiro; Homma, Sakae

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT We evaluated the usefulness of an Aspergillus galactomannan (GM) test, a β-d-glucan (βDG) test, and two different Aspergillus PCR assays of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples for the diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). BALF samples from 30 patients with and 120 patients without CPA were collected. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each test individually and in combination with other tests. The optical density index values, as determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis, for the diagnosis of CPA were 0.5 and 100 for GM and βDG testing of BALF, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the GM test, βDG test, and PCR assays 1 and 2 were 77.8% and 90.0%, 77.8% and 72.5%, 86.7% and 84.2%, and 66.7% and 94.2%, respectively. A comparison of the PCR assays showed that PCR assay 1 had a better sensitivity, a better negative predictive value, and a better negative likelihood ratio and PCR assay 2 had a better specificity, a better positive predictive value, and a better positive likelihood ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests had the highest diagnostic odds ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests on BALF was more useful than any single test for diagnosing CPA. PMID:28330887

A Comparison of Two Motion Sensors for the Assessment of Free-Living Physical Activity of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Cuberek, Roman; Ansari, Walid El; Frömel, Karel; Skalik, Krzysztof; Sigmund, Erik

2010-01-01

This study assessed and compared the daily step counts recorded by two different motion sensors in order to estimate the free-living physical activity of 135 adolescent girls. Each girl concurrently wore a Yamax pedometer and an ActiGraph accelerometer (criterion measure) every day for seven consecutive days. The convergent validity of the pedometer can be considered intermediate when used to measure the step counts in free-living physical activity; but should be considered with caution when used to classify participants’ step counts into corresponding physical activity categories because of a likelihood of ‘erroneous’ classification in comparison with the accelerometer. PMID:20617046

Responsiveness of the EQ-5D to HADS-identified anxiety and depression.

PubMed

Whynes, David K

2009-10-01

The use of generic measures of health-related quality of life enables cost effectiveness comparisons of different health care interventions to be made. Nevertheless, there exists a concern that generic instruments may be insufficiently sensitive to detect the differences or changes in outcome identified by condition-specific instruments. This paper compares the psychometric properties of the EQ-5D generic instrument with a widely used specific measure of distress, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). The analysis was based on data obtained from a large sample of women (n = 3119) with low-grade cervical cytological abnormalities detected at routine screening. These women completed EQ-5D and HADS questionnaires at recruitment and at 12 months thereafter. We examined the strength of association between HADS-determined severity of distress and EQ-5D scores at recruitment and between changes in severity and in scores over time. A higher likelihood of HADS-identified anxiety and/or depression was associated with significantly lower EQ-5D index and visual analogue scores. Over time, the EQ-5D score rose significantly when the likelihood of an individual representing a HADS-defined anxiety and/or depression case decreased. We conclude that the EQ-5D has shown itself to be responsive to differing degrees of HADS-assessed distress, although generalization beyond the UK context requires further investigation.

Laser-Based Slam with Efficient Occupancy Likelihood Map Learning for Dynamic Indoor Scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Li; Yao, Jian; Xie, Renping; Tu, Jinge; Feng, Chen

2016-06-01

Location-Based Services (LBS) have attracted growing attention in recent years, especially in indoor environments. The fundamental technique of LBS is the map building for unknown environments, this technique also named as simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) in robotic society. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for SLAMin dynamic indoor scenes based on a 2D laser scanner mounted on a mobile Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) with the help of the grid-based occupancy likelihood map. Instead of applying scan matching in two adjacent scans, we propose to match current scan with the occupancy likelihood map learned from all previous scans in multiple scales to avoid the accumulation of matching errors. Due to that the acquisition of the points in a scan is sequential but not simultaneous, there unavoidably exists the scan distortion at different extents. To compensate the scan distortion caused by the motion of the UGV, we propose to integrate a velocity of a laser range finder (LRF) into the scan matching optimization framework. Besides, to reduce the effect of dynamic objects such as walking pedestrians often existed in indoor scenes as much as possible, we propose a new occupancy likelihood map learning strategy by increasing or decreasing the probability of each occupancy grid after each scan matching. Experimental results in several challenged indoor scenes demonstrate that our proposed approach is capable of providing high-precision SLAM results.

Model averaging techniques for quantifying conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Singh, Abhishek; Mishra, Srikanta; Ruskauff, Greg

2010-01-01

In recent years a growing understanding has emerged regarding the need to expand the modeling paradigm to include conceptual model uncertainty for groundwater models. Conceptual model uncertainty is typically addressed by formulating alternative model conceptualizations and assessing their relative likelihoods using statistical model averaging approaches. Several model averaging techniques and likelihood measures have been proposed in the recent literature for this purpose with two broad categories--Monte Carlo-based techniques such as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation or GLUE (Beven and Binley 1992) and criterion-based techniques that use metrics such as the Bayesian and Kashyap Information Criteria (e.g., the Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging or MLBMA approach proposed by Neuman 2003) and Akaike Information Criterion-based model averaging (AICMA) (Poeter and Anderson 2005). These different techniques can often lead to significantly different relative model weights and ranks because of differences in the underlying statistical assumptions about the nature of model uncertainty. This paper provides a comparative assessment of the four model averaging techniques (GLUE, MLBMA with KIC, MLBMA with BIC, and AIC-based model averaging) mentioned above for the purpose of quantifying the impacts of model uncertainty on groundwater model predictions. Pros and cons of each model averaging technique are examined from a practitioner's perspective using two groundwater modeling case studies. Recommendations are provided regarding the use of these techniques in groundwater modeling practice.

Empirical likelihood-based tests for stochastic ordering

PubMed Central

BARMI, HAMMOU EL; MCKEAGUE, IAN W.

2013-01-01

This paper develops an empirical likelihood approach to testing for the presence of stochastic ordering among univariate distributions based on independent random samples from each distribution. The proposed test statistic is formed by integrating a localized empirical likelihood statistic with respect to the empirical distribution of the pooled sample. The asymptotic null distribution of this test statistic is found to have a simple distribution-free representation in terms of standard Brownian bridge processes. The approach is used to compare the lengths of rule of Roman Emperors over various historical periods, including the “decline and fall” phase of the empire. In a simulation study, the power of the proposed test is found to improve substantially upon that of a competing test due to El Barmi and Mukerjee. PMID:23874142

Accurate recapture identification for genetic mark–recapture studies with error-tolerant likelihood-based match calling and sample clustering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sethi, Suresh; Linden, Daniel; Wenburg, John; Lewis, Cara; Lemons, Patrick R.; Fuller, Angela K.; Hare, Matthew P.

2016-01-01

Error-tolerant likelihood-based match calling presents a promising technique to accurately identify recapture events in genetic mark–recapture studies by combining probabilities of latent genotypes and probabilities of observed genotypes, which may contain genotyping errors. Combined with clustering algorithms to group samples into sets of recaptures based upon pairwise match calls, these tools can be used to reconstruct accurate capture histories for mark–recapture modelling. Here, we assess the performance of a recently introduced error-tolerant likelihood-based match-calling model and sample clustering algorithm for genetic mark–recapture studies. We assessed both biallelic (i.e. single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNP) and multiallelic (i.e. microsatellite; MSAT) markers using a combination of simulation analyses and case study data on Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) and fishers (Pekania pennanti). A novel two-stage clustering approach is demonstrated for genetic mark–recapture applications. First, repeat captures within a sampling occasion are identified. Subsequently, recaptures across sampling occasions are identified. The likelihood-based matching protocol performed well in simulation trials, demonstrating utility for use in a wide range of genetic mark–recapture studies. Moderately sized SNP (64+) and MSAT (10–15) panels produced accurate match calls for recaptures and accurate non-match calls for samples from closely related individuals in the face of low to moderate genotyping error. Furthermore, matching performance remained stable or increased as the number of genetic markers increased, genotyping error notwithstanding.

Efficient Convex Optimization for Energy-Based Acoustic Sensor Self-Localization and Source Localization in Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Yan, Yongsheng; Wang, Haiyan; Shen, Xiaohong; Leng, Bing; Li, Shuangquan

2018-05-21

The energy reading has been an efficient and attractive measure for collaborative acoustic source localization in practical application due to its cost saving in both energy and computation capability. The maximum likelihood problems by fusing received acoustic energy readings transmitted from local sensors are derived. Aiming to efficiently solve the nonconvex objective of the optimization problem, we present an approximate estimator of the original problem. Then, a direct norm relaxation and semidefinite relaxation, respectively, are utilized to derive the second-order cone programming, semidefinite programming or mixture of them for both cases of sensor self-location and source localization. Furthermore, by taking the colored energy reading noise into account, several minimax optimization problems are formulated, which are also relaxed via the direct norm relaxation and semidefinite relaxation respectively into convex optimization problems. Performance comparison with the existing acoustic energy-based source localization methods is given, where the results show the validity of our proposed methods.

Early Engagement of Safety and Mission Assurance Expertise Using Systems Engineering Tools: A Risk-Based Approach to Early Identification of Safety and Assurance Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Darpel, Scott; Beckman, Sean

2016-01-01

Decades of systems engineering practice have demonstrated that the earlier the identification of requirements occurs, the lower the chance that costly redesigns will needed later in the project life cycle. A better understanding of all requirements can also improve the likelihood of a design's success. Significant effort has been put into developing tools and practices that facilitate requirements determination, including those that are part of the model-based systems engineering (MBSE) paradigm. These efforts have yielded improvements in requirements definition, but have thus far focused on a design's performance needs. The identification of safety & mission assurance (S&MA) related requirements, in comparison, can occur after preliminary designs are already established, yielding forced redesigns. Engaging S&MA expertise at an earlier stage, facilitated by the use of MBSE tools, and focused on actual project risk, can yield the same type of design life cycle improvements that have been realized in technical and performance requirements.

Efficient Convex Optimization for Energy-Based Acoustic Sensor Self-Localization and Source Localization in Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Yan, Yongsheng; Wang, Haiyan; Shen, Xiaohong; Leng, Bing; Li, Shuangquan

2018-01-01

The energy reading has been an efficient and attractive measure for collaborative acoustic source localization in practical application due to its cost saving in both energy and computation capability. The maximum likelihood problems by fusing received acoustic energy readings transmitted from local sensors are derived. Aiming to efficiently solve the nonconvex objective of the optimization problem, we present an approximate estimator of the original problem. Then, a direct norm relaxation and semidefinite relaxation, respectively, are utilized to derive the second-order cone programming, semidefinite programming or mixture of them for both cases of sensor self-location and source localization. Furthermore, by taking the colored energy reading noise into account, several minimax optimization problems are formulated, which are also relaxed via the direct norm relaxation and semidefinite relaxation respectively into convex optimization problems. Performance comparison with the existing acoustic energy-based source localization methods is given, where the results show the validity of our proposed methods. PMID:29883410

Comparison of two Classification methods (MLC and SVM) to extract land use and land cover in Johor Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rokni Deilmai, B.; Ahmad, B. Bin; Zabihi, H.

2014-06-01

Mapping is essential for the analysis of the land use and land cover, which influence many environmental processes and properties. For the purpose of the creation of land cover maps, it is important to minimize error. These errors will propagate into later analyses based on these land cover maps. The reliability of land cover maps derived from remotely sensed data depends on an accurate classification. In this study, we have analyzed multispectral data using two different classifiers including Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). To pursue this aim, Landsat Thematic Mapper data and identical field-based training sample datasets in Johor Malaysia used for each classification method, which results indicate in five land cover classes forest, oil palm, urban area, water, rubber. Classification results indicate that SVM was more accurate than MLC. With demonstrated capability to produce reliable cover results, the SVM methods should be especially useful for land cover classification.

Power and Sample Size Calculations for Logistic Regression Tests for Differential Item Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Zhushan

2014-01-01

Logistic regression is a popular method for detecting uniform and nonuniform differential item functioning (DIF) effects. Theoretical formulas for the power and sample size calculations are derived for likelihood ratio tests and Wald tests based on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators for the logistic regression model.…

Expected versus Observed Information in SEM with Incomplete Normal and Nonnormal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savalei, Victoria

2010-01-01

Maximum likelihood is the most common estimation method in structural equation modeling. Standard errors for maximum likelihood estimates are obtained from the associated information matrix, which can be estimated from the sample using either expected or observed information. It is known that, with complete data, estimates based on observed or…

Bias and Efficiency in Structural Equation Modeling: Maximum Likelihood versus Robust Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhong, Xiaoling; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2011-01-01

In the structural equation modeling literature, the normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (ML) method is most widely used, partly because the resulting estimator is claimed to be asymptotically unbiased and most efficient. However, this may not hold when data deviate from normal distribution. Outlying cases or nonnormally distributed data,…

Five Methods for Estimating Angoff Cut Scores with IRT

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyse, Adam E.

2017-01-01

This article illustrates five different methods for estimating Angoff cut scores using item response theory (IRT) models. These include maximum likelihood (ML), expected a priori (EAP), modal a priori (MAP), and weighted maximum likelihood (WML) estimators, as well as the most commonly used approach based on translating ratings through the test…

The Neural Bases of Difficult Speech Comprehension and Speech Production: Two Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE) Meta-Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adank, Patti

2012-01-01

The role of speech production mechanisms in difficult speech comprehension is the subject of on-going debate in speech science. Two Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE) analyses were conducted on neuroimaging studies investigating difficult speech comprehension or speech production. Meta-analysis 1 included 10 studies contrasting comprehension…

A likelihood-based time series modeling approach for application in dendrochronology to examine the growth-climate relations and forest disturbance history

EPA Science Inventory

A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for ...

Workplace air measurements and likelihood of exposure to manufactured nano-objects, agglomerates, and aggregates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouwer, Derk H.; van Duuren-Stuurman, Birgit; Berges, Markus; Bard, Delphine; Jankowska, Elzbieta; Moehlmann, Carsten; Pelzer, Johannes; Mark, Dave

2013-11-01

Manufactured nano-objects, agglomerates, and aggregates (NOAA) may have adverse effect on human health, but little is known about occupational risks since actual estimates of exposure are lacking. In a large-scale workplace air-monitoring campaign, 19 enterprises were visited and 120 potential exposure scenarios were measured. A multi-metric exposure assessment approach was followed and a decision logic was developed to afford analysis of all results in concert. The overall evaluation was classified by categories of likelihood of exposure. At task level about 53 % showed increased particle number or surface area concentration compared to "background" level, whereas 72 % of the TEM samples revealed an indication that NOAA were present in the workplace. For 54 out of the 120 task-based exposure scenarios, an overall evaluation could be made based on all parameters of the decision logic. For only 1 exposure scenario (approximately 2 %), the highest level of potential likelihood was assigned, whereas in total in 56 % of the exposure scenarios the overall evaluation revealed the lowest level of likelihood. However, for the remaining 42 % exposure to NOAA could not be excluded.

Online shopping interface components: relative importance as peripheral and central cues.

PubMed

Warden, Clyde A; Wu, Wann-Yih; Tsai, Dungchun

2006-06-01

The Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) uses central (more thoughtful) and peripheral (less thoughtful) routes of persuasion to maximize communication effectiveness. This research implements ELM to investigate the relative importance of different aspects of the user experience in online shopping. Of all the issues surrounding online shopping, convenience, access to information, and trust were found to be the most important. These were implemented in an online conjoint shopping task. Respondents were found to use the central route of the ELM on marketing messages that involved issues of minimizing travel, information access, and assurances of system security. Users employed the peripheral ELM route when considering usability, price comparison, and personal information protection. A descriptive model of Web-based marketing components, their roles in the central and peripheral routes, and their relative importance to online consumer segments was developed.

Intimate partner violence among women in Spain: the impact of regional-level male unemployment and income inequality.

PubMed

Sanz-Barbero, Belén; Vives-Cases, Carmen; Otero-García, Laura; Muntaner, Carles; Torrubiano-Domínguez, Jordi; O'Campo, Patricia

2015-12-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is a complex worldwide public health problem. There is scarce research on the independent effect on IPV exerted by structural factors such as labour and economic policies, economic inequalities and gender inequality. To analyse the association, in Spain, between contextual variables of regional unemployment and income inequality and individual women's likelihood of IPV, independently of the women's characteristics. We conducted multilevel logistic regression to analyse cross-sectional data from the 2011 Spanish Macrosurvey of Gender-based Violence which included 7898 adult women. The first level of analyses was the individual women' characteristics and the second level was the region of residence. Of the survey participants, 12.2% reported lifetime IPV. The region of residence accounted for 3.5% of the total variability in IPV prevalence. We determined a direct association between regional male long-term unemployment and IPV likelihood (P = 0.007) and between the Gini Index for the regional income inequality and IPV likelihood (P < 0.001). Women residing in a region with higher gender-based income discrimination are at a lower likelihood of IPV than those residing in a region with low gender-based income discrimination (odds ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence intervals: 0.55-0.75). Growing regional unemployment rates and income inequalities increase women's likelihood of IPV. In times of economic downturn, like the current one in Spain, this association may translate into an increase in women's vulnerability to IPV. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

dPIRPLE: a joint estimation framework for deformable registration and penalized-likelihood CT image reconstruction using prior images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dang, H.; Wang, A. S.; Sussman, Marc S.; Siewerdsen, J. H.; Stayman, J. W.

2014-09-01

Sequential imaging studies are conducted in many clinical scenarios. Prior images from previous studies contain a great deal of patient-specific anatomical information and can be used in conjunction with subsequent imaging acquisitions to maintain image quality while enabling radiation dose reduction (e.g., through sparse angular sampling, reduction in fluence, etc). However, patient motion between images in such sequences results in misregistration between the prior image and current anatomy. Existing prior-image-based approaches often include only a simple rigid registration step that can be insufficient for capturing complex anatomical motion, introducing detrimental effects in subsequent image reconstruction. In this work, we propose a joint framework that estimates the 3D deformation between an unregistered prior image and the current anatomy (based on a subsequent data acquisition) and reconstructs the current anatomical image using a model-based reconstruction approach that includes regularization based on the deformed prior image. This framework is referred to as deformable prior image registration, penalized-likelihood estimation (dPIRPLE). Central to this framework is the inclusion of a 3D B-spline-based free-form-deformation model into the joint registration-reconstruction objective function. The proposed framework is solved using a maximization strategy whereby alternating updates to the registration parameters and image estimates are applied allowing for improvements in both the registration and reconstruction throughout the optimization process. Cadaver experiments were conducted on a cone-beam CT testbench emulating a lung nodule surveillance scenario. Superior reconstruction accuracy and image quality were demonstrated using the dPIRPLE algorithm as compared to more traditional reconstruction methods including filtered backprojection, penalized-likelihood estimation (PLE), prior image penalized-likelihood estimation (PIPLE) without registration, and prior image penalized-likelihood estimation with rigid registration of a prior image (PIRPLE) over a wide range of sampling sparsity and exposure levels.

A Novel Fiber Optic Based Surveillance System for Prevention of Pipeline Integrity Threats.

PubMed

Tejedor, Javier; Macias-Guarasa, Javier; Martins, Hugo F; Piote, Daniel; Pastor-Graells, Juan; Martin-Lopez, Sonia; Corredera, Pedro; Gonzalez-Herraez, Miguel

2017-02-12

This paper presents a novel surveillance system aimed at the detection and classification of threats in the vicinity of a long gas pipeline. The sensing system is based on phase-sensitive optical time domain reflectometry ( ϕ -OTDR) technology for signal acquisition and pattern recognition strategies for threat identification. The proposal incorporates contextual information at the feature level and applies a system combination strategy for pattern classification. The contextual information at the feature level is based on the tandem approach (using feature representations produced by discriminatively-trained multi-layer perceptrons) by employing feature vectors that spread different temporal contexts. The system combination strategy is based on a posterior combination of likelihoods computed from different pattern classification processes. The system operates in two different modes: (1) machine + activity identification, which recognizes the activity being carried out by a certain machine, and (2) threat detection, aimed at detecting threats no matter what the real activity being conducted is. In comparison with a previous system based on the same rigorous experimental setup, the results show that the system combination from the contextual feature information improves the results for each individual class in both operational modes, as well as the overall classification accuracy, with statistically-significant improvements.

Using a probabilistic approach in an ecological risk assessment simulation tool: test case for depleted uranium (DU).

PubMed

Fan, Ming; Thongsri, Tepwitoon; Axe, Lisa; Tyson, Trevor A

2005-06-01

A probabilistic approach was applied in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) to characterize risk and address uncertainty employing Monte Carlo simulations for assessing parameter and risk probabilistic distributions. This simulation tool (ERA) includes a Window's based interface, an interactive and modifiable database management system (DBMS) that addresses a food web at trophic levels, and a comprehensive evaluation of exposure pathways. To illustrate this model, ecological risks from depleted uranium (DU) exposure at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) were assessed and characterized. Probabilistic distributions showed that at YPG, a reduction in plant root weight is considered likely to occur (98% likelihood) from exposure to DU; for most terrestrial animals, likelihood for adverse reproduction effects ranges from 0.1% to 44%. However, for the lesser long-nosed bat, the effects are expected to occur (>99% likelihood) through the reduction in size and weight of offspring. Based on available DU data for the firing range at APG, DU uptake will not likely affect survival of aquatic plants and animals (<0.1% likelihood). Based on field and laboratory studies conducted at APG and YPG on pocket mice, kangaroo rat, white-throated woodrat, deer, and milfoil, body burden concentrations observed fall into the distributions simulated at both sites.

Likelihood-based methods for evaluating principal surrogacy in augmented vaccine trials.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Zhang, Bo; Zhang, Hui; Zhang, Zhiwei

2017-04-01

There is growing interest in assessing immune biomarkers, which are quick to measure and potentially predictive of long-term efficacy, as surrogate endpoints in randomized, placebo-controlled vaccine trials. This can be done under a principal stratification approach, with principal strata defined using a subject's potential immune responses to vaccine and placebo (the latter may be assumed to be zero). In this context, principal surrogacy refers to the extent to which vaccine efficacy varies across principal strata. Because a placebo recipient's potential immune response to vaccine is unobserved in a standard vaccine trial, augmented vaccine trials have been proposed to produce the information needed to evaluate principal surrogacy. This article reviews existing methods based on an estimated likelihood and a pseudo-score (PS) and proposes two new methods based on a semiparametric likelihood (SL) and a pseudo-likelihood (PL), for analyzing augmented vaccine trials. Unlike the PS method, the SL method does not require a model for missingness, which can be advantageous when immune response data are missing by happenstance. The SL method is shown to be asymptotically efficient, and it performs similarly to the PS and PL methods in simulation experiments. The PL method appears to have a computational advantage over the PS and SL methods.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1978-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of obtaining numerically maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions. In recent literature, a certain successive-approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, was shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, we introduce a general iterative procedure, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. We show that, with probability 1 as the sample size grows large, this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. We also show that the step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the 'separation' of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

An iterative procedure for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions, 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, B. C., Jr.; Walker, H. F.

1976-01-01

The problem of obtaining numerically maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions is addressed. In recent literature, a certain successive approximations procedure, based on the likelihood equations, is shown empirically to be effective in numerically approximating such maximum-likelihood estimates; however, the reliability of this procedure was not established theoretically. Here, a general iterative procedure is introduced, of the generalized steepest-ascent (deflected-gradient) type, which is just the procedure known in the literature when the step-size is taken to be 1. With probability 1 as the sample size grows large, it is shown that this procedure converges locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimate whenever the step-size lies between 0 and 2. The step-size which yields optimal local convergence rates for large samples is determined in a sense by the separation of the component normal densities and is bounded below by a number between 1 and 2.

Algorithms of maximum likelihood data clustering with applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giada, Lorenzo; Marsili, Matteo

2002-12-01

We address the problem of data clustering by introducing an unsupervised, parameter-free approach based on maximum likelihood principle. Starting from the observation that data sets belonging to the same cluster share a common information, we construct an expression for the likelihood of any possible cluster structure. The likelihood in turn depends only on the Pearson's coefficient of the data. We discuss clustering algorithms that provide a fast and reliable approximation to maximum likelihood configurations. Compared to standard clustering methods, our approach has the advantages that (i) it is parameter free, (ii) the number of clusters need not be fixed in advance and (iii) the interpretation of the results is transparent. In order to test our approach and compare it with standard clustering algorithms, we analyze two very different data sets: time series of financial market returns and gene expression data. We find that different maximization algorithms produce similar cluster structures whereas the outcome of standard algorithms has a much wider variability.

A Solution to Separation and Multicollinearity in Multiple Logistic Regression

PubMed Central

Shen, Jianzhao; Gao, Sujuan

2010-01-01

In dementia screening tests, item selection for shortening an existing screening test can be achieved using multiple logistic regression. However, maximum likelihood estimates for such logistic regression models often experience serious bias or even non-existence because of separation and multicollinearity problems resulting from a large number of highly correlated items. Firth (1993, Biometrika, 80(1), 27–38) proposed a penalized likelihood estimator for generalized linear models and it was shown to reduce bias and the non-existence problems. The ridge regression has been used in logistic regression to stabilize the estimates in cases of multicollinearity. However, neither solves the problems for each other. In this paper, we propose a double penalized maximum likelihood estimator combining Firth’s penalized likelihood equation with a ridge parameter. We present a simulation study evaluating the empirical performance of the double penalized likelihood estimator in small to moderate sample sizes. We demonstrate the proposed approach using a current screening data from a community-based dementia study. PMID:20376286

A Solution to Separation and Multicollinearity in Multiple Logistic Regression.

PubMed

Shen, Jianzhao; Gao, Sujuan

2008-10-01

In dementia screening tests, item selection for shortening an existing screening test can be achieved using multiple logistic regression. However, maximum likelihood estimates for such logistic regression models often experience serious bias or even non-existence because of separation and multicollinearity problems resulting from a large number of highly correlated items. Firth (1993, Biometrika, 80(1), 27-38) proposed a penalized likelihood estimator for generalized linear models and it was shown to reduce bias and the non-existence problems. The ridge regression has been used in logistic regression to stabilize the estimates in cases of multicollinearity. However, neither solves the problems for each other. In this paper, we propose a double penalized maximum likelihood estimator combining Firth's penalized likelihood equation with a ridge parameter. We present a simulation study evaluating the empirical performance of the double penalized likelihood estimator in small to moderate sample sizes. We demonstrate the proposed approach using a current screening data from a community-based dementia study.

Charting improvements in US registry HLA typing ambiguity using a typing resolution score.

PubMed

Paunić, Vanja; Gragert, Loren; Schneider, Joel; Müller, Carlheinz; Maiers, Martin

2016-07-01

Unrelated stem cell registries have been collecting HLA typing of volunteer bone marrow donors for over 25years. Donor selection for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is based primarily on matching the alleles of donors and patients at five polymorphic HLA loci. As HLA typing technologies have continually advanced since the beginnings of stem cell transplantation, registries have accrued typings of varied HLA typing ambiguity. We present a new typing resolution score (TRS), based on the likelihood of self-match, that allows the systematic comparison of HLA typings across different methods, data sets and populations. We apply the TRS to chart improvement in HLA typing within the Be The Match Registry of the United States from the initiation of DNA-based HLA typing to the current state of high-resolution typing using next-generation sequencing technologies. In addition, we present a publicly available online tool for evaluation of any given HLA typing. This TRS objectively evaluates HLA typing methods and can help define standards for acceptable recruitment HLA typing. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An imbalance fault detection method based on data normalization and EMD for marine current turbines.

PubMed

Zhang, Milu; Wang, Tianzhen; Tang, Tianhao; Benbouzid, Mohamed; Diallo, Demba

2017-05-01

This paper proposes an imbalance fault detection method based on data normalization and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) for variable speed direct-drive Marine Current Turbine (MCT) system. The method is based on the MCT stator current under the condition of wave and turbulence. The goal of this method is to extract blade imbalance fault feature, which is concealed by the supply frequency and the environment noise. First, a Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) detector is developed and the monitoring variable is selected by analyzing the relationship between the variables. Then, the selected monitoring variable is converted into a time series through data normalization, which makes the imbalance fault characteristic frequency into a constant. At the end, the monitoring variable is filtered out by EMD method to eliminate the effect of turbulence. The experiments show that the proposed method is robust against turbulence through comparing the different fault severities and the different turbulence intensities. Comparison with other methods, the experimental results indicate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer-aided diagnosis of prostate cancer using multi-parametric MRI: comparison between PUN and Tofts models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzetti, S.; Giannini, V.; Russo, F.; Regge, D.

2018-05-01

Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems are increasingly being used in clinical settings to report multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) of the prostate. Usually, CAD systems automatically highlight cancer-suspicious regions to the radiologist, reducing reader variability and interpretation errors. Nevertheless, implementing this software requires the selection of which mp-MRI parameters can best discriminate between malignant and non-malignant regions. To exploit functional information, some parameters are derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) acquisitions. In particular, much CAD software employs pharmacokinetic features, such as K trans and k ep, derived from the Tofts model, to estimate a likelihood map of malignancy. However, non-pharmacokinetic models can be also used to describe DCE-MRI curves, without any requirement for prior knowledge or measurement of the arterial input function, which could potentially lead to large errors in parameter estimation. In this work, we implemented an empirical function derived from the phenomenological universalities (PUN) class to fit DCE-MRI. The parameters of the PUN model are used in combination with T2-weighted and diffusion-weighted acquisitions to feed a support vector machine classifier to produce a voxel-wise malignancy likelihood map of the prostate. The results were all compared to those for a CAD system based on Tofts pharmacokinetic features to describe DCE-MRI curves, using different quality aspects of image segmentation, while also evaluating the number and size of false positive (FP) candidate regions. This study included 61 patients with 70 biopsy-proven prostate cancers (PCa). The metrics used to evaluate segmentation quality between the two CAD systems were not statistically different, although the PUN-based CAD reported a lower number of FP, with reduced size compared to the Tofts-based CAD. In conclusion, the CAD software based on PUN parameters is a feasible means with which to detect PCa, without affecting segmentation quality, and hence it could be successfully applied in clinical settings, improving the automated diagnosis process and reducing computational complexity.

Spurious Latent Class Problem in the Mixed Rasch Model: A Comparison of Three Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods under Different Ability Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sen, Sedat

2018-01-01

Recent research has shown that over-extraction of latent classes can be observed in the Bayesian estimation of the mixed Rasch model when the distribution of ability is non-normal. This study examined the effect of non-normal ability distributions on the number of latent classes in the mixed Rasch model when estimated with maximum likelihood…

Quantifying uncertainties in streamflow predictions through signature based inference of hydrological model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter; Kavetski, Dmitri; Albert, Calro

2016-04-01

The calibration of hydrological models based on signatures (e.g. Flow Duration Curves - FDCs) is often advocated as an alternative to model calibration based on the full time series of system responses (e.g. hydrographs). Signature based calibration is motivated by various arguments. From a conceptual perspective, calibration on signatures is a way to filter out errors that are difficult to represent when calibrating on the full time series. Such errors may for example occur when observed and simulated hydrographs are shifted, either on the "time" axis (i.e. left or right), or on the "streamflow" axis (i.e. above or below). These shifts may be due to errors in the precipitation input (time or amount), and if not properly accounted in the likelihood function, may cause biased parameter estimates (e.g. estimated model parameters that do not reproduce the recession characteristics of a hydrograph). From a practical perspective, signature based calibration is seen as a possible solution for making predictions in ungauged basins. Where streamflow data are not available, it may in fact be possible to reliably estimate streamflow signatures. Previous research has for example shown how FDCs can be reliably estimated at ungauged locations based on climatic and physiographic influence factors. Typically, the goal of signature based calibration is not the prediction of the signatures themselves, but the prediction of the system responses. Ideally, the prediction of system responses should be accompanied by a reliable quantification of the associated uncertainties. Previous approaches for signature based calibration, however, do not allow reliable estimates of streamflow predictive distributions. Here, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be employed to obtain reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on signatures. A case study is presented, where a hydrological model is calibrated on FDCs and additional signatures. We propose an approach where the likelihood function for the signatures is derived from the likelihood for streamflow (rather than using an "ad-hoc" likelihood for the signatures as done in previous approaches). This likelihood is not easily tractable analytically and we therefore cannot apply "simple" MCMC methods. This numerical problem is solved using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our result indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for producing reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on calibration to signature data. Moreover, our results provide indications on which signatures are more appropriate to represent the information content of the hydrograph.

Maintained Individual Data Distributed Likelihood Estimation (MIDDLE)

PubMed Central

Boker, Steven M.; Brick, Timothy R.; Pritikin, Joshua N.; Wang, Yang; von Oertzen, Timo; Brown, Donald; Lach, John; Estabrook, Ryne; Hunter, Michael D.; Maes, Hermine H.; Neale, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Maintained Individual Data Distributed Likelihood Estimation (MIDDLE) is a novel paradigm for research in the behavioral, social, and health sciences. The MIDDLE approach is based on the seemingly-impossible idea that data can be privately maintained by participants and never revealed to researchers, while still enabling statistical models to be fit and scientific hypotheses tested. MIDDLE rests on the assumption that participant data should belong to, be controlled by, and remain in the possession of the participants themselves. Distributed likelihood estimation refers to fitting statistical models by sending an objective function and vector of parameters to each participants’ personal device (e.g., smartphone, tablet, computer), where the likelihood of that individual’s data is calculated locally. Only the likelihood value is returned to the central optimizer. The optimizer aggregates likelihood values from responding participants and chooses new vectors of parameters until the model converges. A MIDDLE study provides significantly greater privacy for participants, automatic management of opt-in and opt-out consent, lower cost for the researcher and funding institute, and faster determination of results. Furthermore, if a participant opts into several studies simultaneously and opts into data sharing, these studies automatically have access to individual-level longitudinal data linked across all studies. PMID:26717128

Reduction of Metal Artifact in Single Photon-Counting Computed Tomography by Spectral-Driven Iterative Reconstruction Technique

PubMed Central

Nasirudin, Radin A.; Mei, Kai; Panchev, Petar; Fehringer, Andreas; Pfeiffer, Franz; Rummeny, Ernst J.; Fiebich, Martin; Noël, Peter B.

2015-01-01

Purpose The exciting prospect of Spectral CT (SCT) using photon-counting detectors (PCD) will lead to new techniques in computed tomography (CT) that take advantage of the additional spectral information provided. We introduce a method to reduce metal artifact in X-ray tomography by incorporating knowledge obtained from SCT into a statistical iterative reconstruction scheme. We call our method Spectral-driven Iterative Reconstruction (SPIR). Method The proposed algorithm consists of two main components: material decomposition and penalized maximum likelihood iterative reconstruction. In this study, the spectral data acquisitions with an energy-resolving PCD were simulated using a Monte-Carlo simulator based on EGSnrc C++ class library. A jaw phantom with a dental implant made of gold was used as an object in this study. A total of three dental implant shapes were simulated separately to test the influence of prior knowledge on the overall performance of the algorithm. The generated projection data was first decomposed into three basis functions: photoelectric absorption, Compton scattering and attenuation of gold. A pseudo-monochromatic sinogram was calculated and used as input in the reconstruction, while the spatial information of the gold implant was used as a prior. The results from the algorithm were assessed and benchmarked with state-of-the-art reconstruction methods. Results Decomposition results illustrate that gold implant of any shape can be distinguished from other components of the phantom. Additionally, the result from the penalized maximum likelihood iterative reconstruction shows that artifacts are significantly reduced in SPIR reconstructed slices in comparison to other known techniques, while at the same time details around the implant are preserved. Quantitatively, the SPIR algorithm best reflects the true attenuation value in comparison to other algorithms. Conclusion It is demonstrated that the combination of the additional information from Spectral CT and statistical reconstruction can significantly improve image quality, especially streaking artifacts caused by the presence of materials with high atomic numbers. PMID:25955019

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

2012-01-01

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

Design of simplified maximum-likelihood receivers for multiuser CPM systems.

PubMed

Bing, Li; Bai, Baoming

2014-01-01

A class of simplified maximum-likelihood receivers designed for continuous phase modulation based multiuser systems is proposed. The presented receiver is built upon a front end employing mismatched filters and a maximum-likelihood detector defined in a low-dimensional signal space. The performance of the proposed receivers is analyzed and compared to some existing receivers. Some schemes are designed to implement the proposed receivers and to reveal the roles of different system parameters. Analysis and numerical results show that the proposed receivers can approach the optimum multiuser receivers with significantly (even exponentially in some cases) reduced complexity and marginal performance degradation.

A likelihood-based time series modeling approach for application in dendrochronology to examine the growth-climate relations and forest disturbance history.

PubMed

Lee, E Henry; Wickham, Charlotte; Beedlow, Peter A; Waschmann, Ronald S; Tingey, David T

2017-10-01

A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for climate and forest disturbances (i.e., pests, diseases, fire). The statistical method is illustrated with a tree-ring width time series for a mature closed-canopy Douglas-fir stand on the west slopes of the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, USA that is impacted by Swiss needle cast disease caused by the foliar fungus, Phaecryptopus gaeumannii (Rhode) Petrak. The likelihood-based TSIA method is proposed for the field of dendrochronology to understand the interaction of temperature, water, and forest disturbances that are important in forest ecology and climate change studies.

A single-index threshold Cox proportional hazard model for identifying a treatment-sensitive subset based on multiple biomarkers.

PubMed

He, Ye; Lin, Huazhen; Tu, Dongsheng

2018-06-04

In this paper, we introduce a single-index threshold Cox proportional hazard model to select and combine biomarkers to identify patients who may be sensitive to a specific treatment. A penalized smoothed partial likelihood is proposed to estimate the parameters in the model. A simple, efficient, and unified algorithm is presented to maximize this likelihood function. The estimators based on this likelihood function are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Under mild conditions, the proposed estimators also achieve the oracle property. The proposed approach is evaluated through simulation analyses and application to the analysis of data from two clinical trials, one involving patients with locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer and one involving patients with resectable lung cancer. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test at a fixed level of specificity.

PubMed

Gengsheng Qin; Davis, Angela E; Jing, Bing-Yi

2011-06-01

For a continuous-scale diagnostic test, it is often of interest to find the range of the sensitivity of the test at the cut-off that yields a desired specificity. In this article, we first define a profile empirical likelihood ratio for the sensitivity of a continuous-scale diagnostic test and show that its limiting distribution is a scaled chi-square distribution. We then propose two new empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for the sensitivity of the test at a fixed level of specificity by using the scaled chi-square distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performance of the newly proposed intervals with the existing intervals for the sensitivity in terms of coverage probability. A real example is used to illustrate the application of the recommended methods.

Correlation analysis of air pollutant index levels and dengue cases across five different zones in Selangor, Malaysia.

PubMed

Thiruchelvam, Loshini; Dass, Sarat C; Zaki, Rafdzah; Yahya, Abqariyah; Asirvadam, Vijanth S

2018-05-07

This study investigated the potential relationship between dengue cases and air quality - as measured by the Air Pollution Index (API) for five zones in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. Dengue case patterns can be learned using prediction models based on feedback (lagged terms). However, the question whether air quality affects dengue cases is still not thoroughly investigated based on such feedback models. This work developed dengue prediction models using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with an exogeneous variable (ARIMAX) time series methodologies with API as the exogeneous variable. The Box Jenkins approach based on maximum likelihood was used for analysis as it gives effective model estimates and prediction. Three stages of model comparison were carried out for each zone: first with ARIMA models without API, then ARIMAX models with API data from the API station for that zone and finally, ARIMAX models with API data from the zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) gives goodness-of-fit versus parsimony comparisons between all elicited models. Our study found that ARIMA models, with the lowest BIC value, outperformed the rest in all five zones. The BIC values for the zone of Kuala Selangor were -800.66, -796.22, and -790.5229, respectively, for ARIMA only, ARIMAX with single API component and ARIMAX with API components from its zone and spatially neighbouring zones. Therefore, we concluded that API levels, either temporally for each zone or spatio- temporally based on neighbouring zones, do not have a significant effect on dengue cases.

Source and Message Factors in Persuasion: A Reply to Stiff's Critique of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petty, Richard E.; And Others

1987-01-01

Answers James Stiff's criticism of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion. Corrects certain misperceptions of the ELM and criticizes Stiff's meta-analysis that compares ELM predictions with those derived from Kahneman's elastic capacity model. Argues that Stiff's presentation of the ELM and the conclusions he draws based on the data…

Screening for postnatal depression in Chinese-speaking women using the Hong Kong translated version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale.

PubMed

Chen, Helen; Bautista, Dianne; Ch'ng, Ying Chia; Li, Wenyun; Chan, Edwin; Rush, A John

2013-06-01

The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) may not be a uniformly valid postnatal depression (PND) screen across populations. We evaluated the performance of a Chinese translation of 10-item (HK-EPDS) and six-item (HK-EPDS-6) versions in post-partum women in Singapore. Chinese-speaking post-partum obstetric clinic patients were recruited for this study. They completed the HK-EPDS, from which we derived the six-item HK-EPDS-6. All women were clinically assessed for PND based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, Fourth Edition-Text Revision criteria. Receiver-operator curve (ROC) analyses and likelihood ratio computations informed scale cutoff choices. Clinical fitness was judged by thresholds for internal consistency [α ≥ 0.70] and for diagnostic performance by true-positive rate (>85%), false-positive rate (≤10%), positive likelihood ratio (>1), negative likelihood ratio (<0.2), area under the ROC curve (AUC, ≥90%) and effect size (≥0.80). Based on clinical interview, prevalence of PND was 6.2% in 487 post-partum women. HK-EPDS internal consistency was 0.84. At 13 or more cutoff, the true-positive rate was 86.7%, false-positive rate 3.3%, positive likelihood ratio 26.4, negative likelihood ratio 0.14, AUC 94.4% and effect size 0.81. For the HK-EPDS-6, internal consistency was 0.76. At 8 or more cutoff, we found a true-positive rate of 86.7%, false-positive rate 6.6%, positive likelihood ratio 13.2, negative likelihood ration 0.14, AUC 92.9% and effect size 0.98. The HK-EPDS (cutoff ≥13) and HK-EPDS6 (cutoff ≥8) are fit for PND screening for general population post-partum women. The brief six-item version appears to be clinically suitable for quick screening in Chinese speaking women. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

The Extended-Image Tracking Technique Based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsou, Haiping; Yan, Tsun-Yee

2000-01-01

This paper describes an extended-image tracking technique based on the maximum likelihood estimation. The target image is assume to have a known profile covering more than one element of a focal plane detector array. It is assumed that the relative position between the imager and the target is changing with time and the received target image has each of its pixels disturbed by an independent additive white Gaussian noise. When a rotation-invariant movement between imager and target is considered, the maximum likelihood based image tracking technique described in this paper is a closed-loop structure capable of providing iterative update of the movement estimate by calculating the loop feedback signals from a weighted correlation between the currently received target image and the previously estimated reference image in the transform domain. The movement estimate is then used to direct the imager to closely follow the moving target. This image tracking technique has many potential applications, including free-space optical communications and astronomy where accurate and stabilized optical pointing is essential.

Maximum likelihood methods for investigating reporting rates of rings on hunter-shot birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Morgan, B.J.T.; North, P.M.

1985-01-01

It is well known that hunters do not report 100% of the rings that they find on shot birds. Reward studies can be used to estimate what this reporting rate is, by comparison of recoveries of rings offering a monetary reward, to ordinary rings. A reward study of American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes) is used to illustrate the design, and to motivate the development of statistical models for estimation and for testing hypotheses of temporal and geographic variation in reporting rates. The method involves indexing the data (recoveries) and parameters (reporting, harvest, and solicitation rates) by geographic and temporal strata. Estimates are obtained under unconstrained (e.g., allowing temporal variability in reporting rates) and constrained (e.g., constant reporting rates) models, and hypotheses are tested by likelihood ratio. A FORTRAN program, available from the author, is used to perform the computations.

A Comparison of Local Variance, Fractal Dimension, and Moran's I as Aids to Multispectral Image Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emerson, Charles W.; Sig-NganLam, Nina; Quattrochi, Dale A.

2004-01-01

The accuracy of traditional multispectral maximum-likelihood image classification is limited by the skewed statistical distributions of reflectances from the complex heterogenous mixture of land cover types in urban areas. This work examines the utility of local variance, fractal dimension and Moran's I index of spatial autocorrelation in segmenting multispectral satellite imagery. Tools available in the Image Characterization and Modeling System (ICAMS) were used to analyze Landsat 7 imagery of Atlanta, Georgia. Although segmentation of panchromatic images is possible using indicators of spatial complexity, different land covers often yield similar values of these indices. Better results are obtained when a surface of local fractal dimension or spatial autocorrelation is combined as an additional layer in a supervised maximum-likelihood multispectral classification. The addition of fractal dimension measures is particularly effective at resolving land cover classes within urbanized areas, as compared to per-pixel spectral classification techniques.

Comparison of robustness to outliers between robust poisson models and log-binomial models when estimating relative risks for common binary outcomes: a simulation study.

PubMed

Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P

2014-06-26

To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.

Estimation of dynamic rotor loads for the rotor systems research aircraft: Methodology development and validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duval, R. W.; Bahrami, M.

1985-01-01

The Rotor Systems Research Aircraft uses load cells to isolate the rotor/transmission systm from the fuselage. A mathematical model relating applied rotor loads and inertial loads of the rotor/transmission system to the load cell response is required to allow the load cells to be used to estimate rotor loads from flight data. Such a model is derived analytically by applying a force and moment balance to the isolated rotor/transmission system. The model is tested by comparing its estimated values of applied rotor loads with measured values obtained from a ground based shake test. Discrepancies in the comparison are used to isolate sources of unmodeled external loads. Once the structure of the mathematical model has been validated by comparison with experimental data, the parameters must be identified. Since the parameters may vary with flight condition it is desirable to identify the parameters directly from the flight data. A Maximum Likelihood identification algorithm is derived for this purpose and tested using a computer simulation of load cell data. The identification is found to converge within 10 samples. The rapid convergence facilitates tracking of time varying parameters of the load cell model in flight.

Bayesian multivariate Poisson abundance models for T-cell receptor data.

PubMed

Greene, Joshua; Birtwistle, Marc R; Ignatowicz, Leszek; Rempala, Grzegorz A

2013-06-07

A major feature of an adaptive immune system is its ability to generate B- and T-cell clones capable of recognizing and neutralizing specific antigens. These clones recognize antigens with the help of the surface molecules, called antigen receptors, acquired individually during the clonal development process. In order to ensure a response to a broad range of antigens, the number of different receptor molecules is extremely large, resulting in a huge clonal diversity of both B- and T-cell receptor populations and making their experimental comparisons statistically challenging. To facilitate such comparisons, we propose a flexible parametric model of multivariate count data and illustrate its use in a simultaneous analysis of multiple antigen receptor populations derived from mammalian T-cells. The model relies on a representation of the observed receptor counts as a multivariate Poisson abundance mixture (m PAM). A Bayesian parameter fitting procedure is proposed, based on the complete posterior likelihood, rather than the conditional one used typically in similar settings. The new procedure is shown to be considerably more efficient than its conditional counterpart (as measured by the Fisher information) in the regions of m PAM parameter space relevant to model T-cell data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GRID-BASED EXPLORATION OF COSMOLOGICAL PARAMETER SPACE WITH SNAKE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mikkelsen, K.; Næss, S. K.; Eriksen, H. K., E-mail: kristin.mikkelsen@astro.uio.no

2013-11-10

We present a fully parallelized grid-based parameter estimation algorithm for investigating multidimensional likelihoods called Snake, and apply it to cosmological parameter estimation. The basic idea is to map out the likelihood grid-cell by grid-cell according to decreasing likelihood, and stop when a certain threshold has been reached. This approach improves vastly on the 'curse of dimensionality' problem plaguing standard grid-based parameter estimation simply by disregarding grid cells with negligible likelihood. The main advantages of this method compared to standard Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods include (1) trivial extraction of arbitrary conditional distributions; (2) direct access to Bayesian evidences; (3)more » better sampling of the tails of the distribution; and (4) nearly perfect parallelization scaling. The main disadvantage is, as in the case of brute-force grid-based evaluation, a dependency on the number of parameters, N{sub par}. One of the main goals of the present paper is to determine how large N{sub par} can be, while still maintaining reasonable computational efficiency; we find that N{sub par} = 12 is well within the capabilities of the method. The performance of the code is tested by comparing cosmological parameters estimated using Snake and the WMAP-7 data with those obtained using CosmoMC, the current standard code in the field. We find fully consistent results, with similar computational expenses, but shorter wall time due to the perfect parallelization scheme.« less

What affects public acceptance of recycled and desalinated water?

PubMed Central

Dolnicar, Sara; Hurlimann, Anna; Grün, Bettina

2011-01-01

This paper identifies factors that are associated with higher levels of public acceptance for recycled and desalinated water. For the first time, a wide range of hypothesized factors, both of socio-demographic and psychographic nature, are included simultaneously. The key results, based on a survey study of about 3000 respondents are that: (1) drivers of the stated likelihood of using desalinated water differ somewhat from drivers of the stated likelihood of using recycled water; (2) positive perceptions of, and knowledge about, the respective water source are key drivers for the stated likelihood of usage; and (3) awareness of water scarcity, as well as prior experience with using water from alternative sources, increases the stated likelihood of use. Practical recommendations for public policy makers, such as key messages to be communicated to the public, are derived. PMID:20950834

Integration within the Felsenstein equation for improved Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in population genetics

PubMed Central

Hey, Jody; Nielsen, Rasmus

2007-01-01

In 1988, Felsenstein described a framework for assessing the likelihood of a genetic data set in which all of the possible genealogical histories of the data are considered, each in proportion to their probability. Although not analytically solvable, several approaches, including Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, have been developed to find approximate solutions. Here, we describe an approach in which Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations are used to integrate over the space of genealogies, whereas other parameters are integrated out analytically. The result is an approximation to the full joint posterior density of the model parameters. For many purposes, this function can be treated as a likelihood, thereby permitting likelihood-based analyses, including likelihood ratio tests of nested models. Several examples, including an application to the divergence of chimpanzee subspecies, are provided. PMID:17301231

Undernutrition among adults in India: the significance of individual-level and contextual factors impacting on the likelihood of underweight across sub-populations.

PubMed

Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Donato, Ronald

2017-01-01

To investigate the extent to which individual-level as well as macro-level contextual factors influence the likelihood of underweight across adult sub-populations in India. Population-based cross-sectional survey included in India's National Health Family Survey conducted in 2005-06. We disaggregated into eight sub-populations. Multistage nationally representative household survey covering 99 % of India's population. The survey covered 124 385 females aged 15-49 years and 74 369 males aged 15-54 years. A social gradient in underweight exists in India. Even after allowing for wealth status, differences in the predicted probability of underweight persisted based upon rurality, age/maturity and gender. We found individual-level education lowered the likelihood of underweight for males, but no statistical association for females. Paradoxically, rural young (15-24 years) females from more educated villages had a higher likelihood of underweight relative to those in less educated villages; but for rural mature (>24 years) females the opposite was the case. Christians had a significantly lower likelihood of underweight relative to other socio-religious groups (OR=0·53-0·80). Higher state-level inequality increased the likelihood of underweight across most population groups, while neighbourhood inequality exhibited a similar relationship for the rural young population subgroups only. Individual states/neighbourhoods accounted for 5-9 % of the variation in the prediction of underweight. We found that rural young females represent a particularly highly vulnerable sub-population. Economic growth alone is unlikely to reduce the burden of malnutrition in India; accordingly, policy makers need to address the broader social determinants that contribute to higher underweight prevalence in specific demographic subgroups.

Regression estimators for generic health-related quality of life and quality-adjusted life years.

PubMed

Basu, Anirban; Manca, Andrea

2012-01-01

To develop regression models for outcomes with truncated supports, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data, and account for features typical of such data such as a skewed distribution, spikes at 1 or 0, and heteroskedasticity. Regression estimators based on features of the Beta distribution. First, both a single equation and a 2-part model are presented, along with estimation algorithms based on maximum-likelihood, quasi-likelihood, and Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. A novel Bayesian quasi-likelihood estimator is proposed. Second, a simulation exercise is presented to assess the performance of the proposed estimators against ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for a variety of HRQoL distributions that are encountered in practice. Finally, the performance of the proposed estimators is assessed by using them to quantify the treatment effect on QALYs in the EVALUATE hysterectomy trial. Overall model fit is studied using several goodness-of-fit tests such as Pearson's correlation test, link and reset tests, and a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The simulation results indicate that the proposed methods are more robust in estimating covariate effects than OLS, especially when the effects are large or the HRQoL distribution has a large spike at 1. Quasi-likelihood techniques are more robust than maximum likelihood estimators. When applied to the EVALUATE trial, all but the maximum likelihood estimators produce unbiased estimates of the treatment effect. One and 2-part Beta regression models provide flexible approaches to regress the outcomes with truncated supports, such as HRQoL, on covariates, after accounting for many idiosyncratic features of the outcomes distribution. This work will provide applied researchers with a practical set of tools to model outcomes in cost-effectiveness analysis.

Temporal and spatial diversification of Pteroglossus araçaris (AVES: Ramphastidae) in the neotropics: constant rate of diversification does not support an increase in radiation during the Pleistocene.

PubMed

Patel, Swati; Weckstein, Jason D; Patané, José S L; Bates, John M; Aleixo, Alexandre

2011-01-01

We use the small-bodied toucan genus Pteroglossus to test hypotheses about diversification in the lowland Neotropics. We sequenced three mitochondrial genes and one nuclear intron from all Pteroglossus species and used these data to reconstruct phylogenetic trees based on maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses. These phylogenetic trees were used to make inferences regarding both the pattern and timing of diversification for the group. We used the uplift of the Talamanca highlands of Costa Rica and western Panama as a geologic calibration for estimating divergence times on the Pteroglossus tree and compared these results with a standard molecular clock calibration. Then, we used likelihood methods to model the rate of diversification. Based on our analyses, the onset of the Pteroglossus radiation predates the Pleistocene, which has been predicted to have played a pivotal role in diversification in the Amazon rainforest biota. We found a constant rate of diversification in Pteroglossus evolutionary history, and thus no support that events during the Pleistocene caused an increase in diversification. We compare our data to other avian phylogenies to better understand major biogeographic events in the Neotropics. These comparisons support recurring forest connections between the Amazonian and Atlantic forests, and the splitting of cis/trans Andean species after the final uplift of the Andes. At the subspecies level, there is evidence for reciprocal monophyly and groups are often separated by major rivers, demonstrating the important role of rivers in causing or maintaining divergence. Because some of the results presented here conflict with current taxonomy of Pteroglossus, new taxonomic arrangements are suggested. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychosocial and behavioral profile and predictors of self-reported energy underreporting in obese middle-aged women.

PubMed

Abbot, Jaclyn Maurer; Thomson, Cynthia A; Ranger-Moore, James; Teixeira, Pedro J; Lohman, Timothy G; Taren, Douglas L; Cussler, Ellen; Going, Scott B; Houtkooper, Linda B

2008-01-01

Energy underreporting is a concern with dietary intake data; therefore, subject characteristics associated with underreporting energy intake should be elucidated. Baseline self-reported dietary intake and measures of diet and weight history, life status, weight-loss readiness, psychology, eating behavior, physical activity, and self-image of obese middle-aged women (mean body mass index [calculated as kg/m(2)]=31.0) enrolled in a lifestyle weight-loss program were evaluated. Of the 155 participating, 71 women were identified as underreporting energy intake using the Goldberg cutoff values. Comparison of means between psychosocial and behavioral measures from energy underreporters and energy accurate reporters were used to help develop logistic regression models that could predict likelihood to underreport energy intake based on baseline measures. Characteristics most predictive of energy underreporting included fewer years of education (P=0.01), less-realistic weight-loss goals (P=0.02), higher perceived exercise competence (P=0.07), more social support to exercise (P=0.04), more body-shape concern (P=0.01), and higher perception of physical condition (P=0.03). These results highlight distinct psychosocial and behavioral characteristics that, at baseline, can help identify the likelihood an overweight middle-aged woman entering a weight-loss intervention will underreport energy intake. These results can help provide a framework for screening study participants for probability of energy underreporting, based on baseline psychosocial and behavioral measures. This knowledge can help researchers target at-risk subjects and, through education and training, improve the accuracy of self-reported energy intake and, ultimately, the accuracy of energy and nutrient intake relationships with health and disease.

How well do commonly used data presentation formats support comparative effectiveness evaluations?

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.; Qian, Feng; Veazie, Peter J.

2012-01-01

Background Good decisions depend on an accurate understanding of the comparative effectiveness of decision alternatives. The best way convey data needed to support these comparisons is unknown. Objective To determine how well five commonly used data presentation formats convey comparative effectiveness information. Design Internet survey using a factorial design. Subjects 279 members of an online survey panel. Intervention Study participants compared outcomes associated with three hypothetical screening test options relative to five possible outcomes with probabilities ranging from 2 per 5,000 (0.04%) to 500 per 1,000 (50%). Data presentation formats included a table, a “magnified” bar chart, a risk scale, a frequency diagram, and an icon array. Measurements Outcomes included the number of correct ordinal judgments regarding the more likely of two outcomes, the ratio of perceived versus actual relative likelihoods of the paired outcomes, the inter-subject consistency of responses, and perceived clarity. Results The mean number of correct ordinal judgments was 12 of 15 (80%), with no differences among data formats. On average, there was a 3.3-fold difference between perceived and actual likelihood ratios,95%CI: 3.0 to 3.6. Comparative judgments based on flow charts, icon arrays, and tables were all significantly more accurate and consistent than those based on risk scales and bar charts, p < 0.001. The most clearly perceived formats were the table and the flow chart. Low subjective numeracy was associated with less accurate and more variable data interpretations and lower perceived clarity for icon displays, bar charts, and flow diagrams. Conclusions None of the data presentation formats studied can reliably provide patients, especially those with low subjective numeracy, with an accurate understanding of comparative effectiveness information. PMID:22618998

How well do commonly used data presentation formats support comparative effectiveness evaluations?

PubMed

Dolan, James G; Qian, Feng; Veazie, Peter J

2012-01-01

Good decisions depend on an accurate understanding of the comparative effectiveness of decision alternatives. The best way to convey data needed to support these comparisons is unknown. To determine how well 5 commonly used data presentation formats convey comparative effectiveness information. The study was an Internet survey using a factorial design. Participants consisted of 279 members of an online survey panel. Study participants compared outcomes associated with 3 hypothetical screening test options relative to 5 possible outcomes with probabilities ranging from 2 per 5000 (0.04%) to 500 per 1000 (50%). Data presentation formats included a table, a "magnified" bar chart, a risk scale, a frequency diagram, and an icon array. Outcomes included the number of correct ordinal judgments regarding the more likely of 2 outcomes, the ratio of perceived versus actual relative likelihoods of the paired outcomes, the intersubject consistency of responses, and perceived clarity. The mean number of correct ordinal judgments was 12 of 15 (80%), with no differences among data formats. On average, there was a 3.3-fold difference between perceived and actual likelihood ratios (95% confidence interval = 3.0-3.6). Comparative judgments based on flowcharts, icon arrays, and tables were all significantly more accurate and consistent than those based on risk scales and bar charts (P < 0.001). The most clearly perceived formats were the table and the flowchart. Low subjective numeracy was associated with less accurate and more variable data interpretations and lower perceived clarity for icon displays, bar charts, and flow diagrams. None of the data presentation formats studied can reliably provide patients, especially those with low subjective numeracy, with an accurate understanding of comparative effectiveness information.

Gun carrying among freshmen and sophomores in Chicago, New York City and Los Angeles public schools: the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2007-2013.

PubMed

Kemal, Samaa; Sheehan, Karen; Feinglass, Joe

2018-04-10

This study evaluated trends and risk factors over time for self-reported gun carrying among freshman and sophomore public school students in Chicago, New York City and Los Angeles, chosen as high profile cities with different levels of firearm violence. The study used four biennial waves (2007-2013) of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), an anonymous, voluntary survey of public high school students. Analyses were restricted to freshman and sophomores given significant high school dropout rates among older students. School population weighted results are presented based on the YRBS complex survey design, including comparisons of reported gun carrying across survey waves and cities. A violence index was created from eight survey items that capture students' perceived threat level. Chi square tests and multivariable Poisson regression analyses were used to test the significance of differences across cities and over time in the likelihood of gun carrying controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, mental health risk factors and behavioral risk factors. The study included a total weighted population estimate of 1,137,449 students across the three cities and four survey waves. Mean self-reported gun carrying across all survey waves was 8.89% in Chicago, 4.09% in New York City, and 6.03% in Los Angeles (p < 0.001). There were no significant changes in gun carrying prevalence within each individual city over the survey waves. Multivariable Poisson regression estimates showed increased likelihood for gun carrying among males (IRR 1.41, CI 1.27-1.58), among non-Hispanic Blacks (IRR 1.26, CI 1.07-1.48), and among those who reported a higher violence index. Each additional violence index count increase was associated with a 1.74 times (CI 1.70-1.78) increased likelihood for gun carrying. There was a much higher self-reported rate of gun carrying and a higher burden of violence exposure in Chicago as compared to New York City and Los Angeles. Students' exposure to violence extended to other stressors illuminated by the YRBS including fighting, perceptions of safety, and other high-risk behaviors. Through the violence index we created, we are better able to categorize the most high-risk individuals and describe the magnitude of their increased likelihood to carry a gun.

Usefulness of Two Aspergillus PCR Assays and Aspergillus Galactomannan and β-d-Glucan Testing of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid for Diagnosis of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis.

PubMed

Urabe, Naohisa; Sakamoto, Susumu; Sano, Go; Suzuki, Junko; Hebisawa, Akira; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Koyama, Kazuya; Ishii, Yoshikazu; Tateda, Kazuhiro; Homma, Sakae

2017-06-01

We evaluated the usefulness of an Aspergillus galactomannan (GM) test, a β-d-glucan (βDG) test, and two different Aspergillus PCR assays of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) samples for the diagnosis of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). BALF samples from 30 patients with and 120 patients without CPA were collected. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for each test individually and in combination with other tests. The optical density index values, as determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis, for the diagnosis of CPA were 0.5 and 100 for GM and βDG testing of BALF, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the GM test, βDG test, and PCR assays 1 and 2 were 77.8% and 90.0%, 77.8% and 72.5%, 86.7% and 84.2%, and 66.7% and 94.2%, respectively. A comparison of the PCR assays showed that PCR assay 1 had a better sensitivity, a better negative predictive value, and a better negative likelihood ratio and PCR assay 2 had a better specificity, a better positive predictive value, and a better positive likelihood ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests had the highest diagnostic odds ratio. The combination of the GM and βDG tests on BALF was more useful than any single test for diagnosing CPA. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Hybrid approach combining chemometrics and likelihood ratio framework for reporting the evidential value of spectra.

PubMed

Martyna, Agnieszka; Zadora, Grzegorz; Neocleous, Tereza; Michalska, Aleksandra; Dean, Nema

2016-08-10

Many chemometric tools are invaluable and have proven effective in data mining and substantial dimensionality reduction of highly multivariate data. This becomes vital for interpreting various physicochemical data due to rapid development of advanced analytical techniques, delivering much information in a single measurement run. This concerns especially spectra, which are frequently used as the subject of comparative analysis in e.g. forensic sciences. In the presented study the microtraces collected from the scenarios of hit-and-run accidents were analysed. Plastic containers and automotive plastics (e.g. bumpers, headlamp lenses) were subjected to Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and car paints were analysed using Raman spectroscopy. In the forensic context analytical results must be interpreted and reported according to the standards of the interpretation schemes acknowledged in forensic sciences using the likelihood ratio approach. However, for proper construction of LR models for highly multivariate data, such as spectra, chemometric tools must be employed for substantial data compression. Conversion from classical feature representation to distance representation was proposed for revealing hidden data peculiarities and linear discriminant analysis was further applied for minimising the within-sample variability while maximising the between-sample variability. Both techniques enabled substantial reduction of data dimensionality. Univariate and multivariate likelihood ratio models were proposed for such data. It was shown that the combination of chemometric tools and the likelihood ratio approach is capable of solving the comparison problem of highly multivariate and correlated data after proper extraction of the most relevant features and variance information hidden in the data structure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer.

PubMed

Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

2015-01-01

People's Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other inflammation-based prognostic scores. The present study indicates that preoperative GPS and TNM stage are robust predictors of gastric cancer survival as compared to NLR, PLR, PI, and PNI in patients undergoing tumor resection.

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

2015-01-01

Background People’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. Objective To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. Methods The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. Results In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other inflammation-based prognostic scores. Conclusion The present study indicates that preoperative GPS and TNM stage are robust predictors of gastric cancer survival as compared to NLR, PLR, PI, and PNI in patients undergoing tumor resection. PMID:26124667

Proteomic Basis of the Antibody Response to Monkeypox Virus Infection Examined in Cynomolgus Macaques and a Comparison to Human Smallpox Vaccination

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-30

collected after challenges were gamma- irradiated (6 Mrad) to destroy any infectious virus. Previous results indicated minimal damage to serum immuno...in Sf9 insect cells using Gateway baculovirus expression (Invitrogen). All ORF clones were fully sequenced. Recombinant proteins carried GST-tags and... insect cell expression, increased the likelihood that all products were correctly folded and functional. Successfully cloned, expressed and size

Detecting Network Communities: An Application to Phylogenetic Analysis

PubMed Central

Andrade, Roberto F. S.; Rocha-Neto, Ivan C.; Santos, Leonardo B. L.; de Santana, Charles N.; Diniz, Marcelo V. C.; Lobão, Thierry Petit; Goés-Neto, Aristóteles; Pinho, Suani T. R.; El-Hani, Charbel N.

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a new method to identify communities in generally weighted complex networks and apply it to phylogenetic analysis. In this case, weights correspond to the similarity indexes among protein sequences, which can be used for network construction so that the network structure can be analyzed to recover phylogenetically useful information from its properties. The analyses discussed here are mainly based on the modular character of protein similarity networks, explored through the Newman-Girvan algorithm, with the help of the neighborhood matrix . The most relevant networks are found when the network topology changes abruptly revealing distinct modules related to the sets of organisms to which the proteins belong. Sound biological information can be retrieved by the computational routines used in the network approach, without using biological assumptions other than those incorporated by BLAST. Usually, all the main bacterial phyla and, in some cases, also some bacterial classes corresponded totally (100%) or to a great extent (>70%) to the modules. We checked for internal consistency in the obtained results, and we scored close to 84% of matches for community pertinence when comparisons between the results were performed. To illustrate how to use the network-based method, we employed data for enzymes involved in the chitin metabolic pathway that are present in more than 100 organisms from an original data set containing 1,695 organisms, downloaded from GenBank on May 19, 2007. A preliminary comparison between the outcomes of the network-based method and the results of methods based on Bayesian, distance, likelihood, and parsimony criteria suggests that the former is as reliable as these commonly used methods. We conclude that the network-based method can be used as a powerful tool for retrieving modularity information from weighted networks, which is useful for phylogenetic analysis. PMID:21573202

Self-Reported Stomach Upset in Travellers on Cruise-Based and Land-Based Package Holidays

PubMed Central

Launders, Naomi J.; Nichols, Gordon L.; Cartwright, Rodney; Lawrence, Joanne; Jones, Jane; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

2014-01-01

Background International travellers are at a risk of infectious diseases not seen in their home country. Stomach upsets are common in travellers, including on cruise ships. This study compares the incidence of stomach upsets on land- and cruise-based holidays. Methods A major British tour operator has administered a Customer Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ) to UK resident travellers aged 16 or more on return flights from their holiday abroad over many years. Data extracted from the CSQ was used to measure self-reported stomach upset in returning travellers. Results From summer 2000 through winter 2008, 6,863,092 questionnaires were completed; 6.6% were from cruise passengers. A higher percentage of land-based holiday-makers (7.2%) reported stomach upset in comparison to 4.8% of cruise passengers (RR = 1.5, p<0.0005). Reported stomach upset on cruises declined over the study period (7.1% in 2000 to 3.1% in 2008, p<0.0005). Over 25% of travellers on land-based holidays to Egypt and the Dominican Republic reported stomach upset. In comparison, the highest proportion of stomach upset in cruise ship travellers were reported following cruises departing from Egypt (14.8%) and Turkey (8.8%). Conclusions In this large study of self-reported illness both demographic and holiday choice factors were shown to play a part in determining the likelihood of developing stomach upset while abroad. There is a lower cumulative incidence and declining rates of stomach upset in cruise passengers which suggest that the cruise industry has adopted operations (e.g. hygiene standards) that have reduced illness over recent years. PMID:24427271

Efficient computation of the phylogenetic likelihood function on multi-gene alignments and multi-core architectures.

PubMed

Stamatakis, Alexandros; Ott, Michael

2008-12-27

The continuous accumulation of sequence data, for example, due to novel wet-laboratory techniques such as pyrosequencing, coupled with the increasing popularity of multi-gene phylogenies and emerging multi-core processor architectures that face problems of cache congestion, poses new challenges with respect to the efficient computation of the phylogenetic maximum-likelihood (ML) function. Here, we propose two approaches that can significantly speed up likelihood computations that typically represent over 95 per cent of the computational effort conducted by current ML or Bayesian inference programs. Initially, we present a method and an appropriate data structure to efficiently compute the likelihood score on 'gappy' multi-gene alignments. By 'gappy' we denote sampling-induced gaps owing to missing sequences in individual genes (partitions), i.e. not real alignment gaps. A first proof-of-concept implementation in RAXML indicates that this approach can accelerate inferences on large and gappy alignments by approximately one order of magnitude. Moreover, we present insights and initial performance results on multi-core architectures obtained during the transition from an OpenMP-based to a Pthreads-based fine-grained parallelization of the ML function.

Empirical likelihood method for non-ignorable missing data problems.

PubMed

Guan, Zhong; Qin, Jing

2017-01-01

Missing response problem is ubiquitous in survey sampling, medical, social science and epidemiology studies. It is well known that non-ignorable missing is the most difficult missing data problem where the missing of a response depends on its own value. In statistical literature, unlike the ignorable missing data problem, not many papers on non-ignorable missing data are available except for the full parametric model based approach. In this paper we study a semiparametric model for non-ignorable missing data in which the missing probability is known up to some parameters, but the underlying distributions are not specified. By employing Owen (1988)'s empirical likelihood method we can obtain the constrained maximum empirical likelihood estimators of the parameters in the missing probability and the mean response which are shown to be asymptotically normal. Moreover the likelihood ratio statistic can be used to test whether the missing of the responses is non-ignorable or completely at random. The theoretical results are confirmed by a simulation study. As an illustration, the analysis of a real AIDS trial data shows that the missing of CD4 counts around two years are non-ignorable and the sample mean based on observed data only is biased.

A hybrid model for combining case-control and cohort studies in systematic reviews of diagnostic tests

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong; Liu, Yulun; Ning, Jing; Cormier, Janice; Chu, Haitao

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews of diagnostic tests often involve a mixture of case-control and cohort studies. The standard methods for evaluating diagnostic accuracy only focus on sensitivity and specificity and ignore the information on disease prevalence contained in cohort studies. Consequently, such methods cannot provide estimates of measures related to disease prevalence, such as population averaged or overall positive and negative predictive values, which reflect the clinical utility of a diagnostic test. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach that jointly models the disease prevalence along with the diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity in cohort studies, and the sensitivity and specificity in case-control studies. In order to overcome the potential computational difficulties in the standard full likelihood inference of the proposed hybrid model, we propose an alternative inference procedure based on the composite likelihood. Such composite likelihood based inference does not suffer computational problems and maintains high relative efficiency. In addition, it is more robust to model mis-specifications compared to the standard full likelihood inference. We apply our approach to a review of the performance of contemporary diagnostic imaging modalities for detecting metastases in patients with melanoma. PMID:25897179

Maximal likelihood correspondence estimation for face recognition across pose.

PubMed

Li, Shaoxin; Liu, Xin; Chai, Xiujuan; Zhang, Haihong; Lao, Shihong; Shan, Shiguang

2014-10-01

Due to the misalignment of image features, the performance of many conventional face recognition methods degrades considerably in across pose scenario. To address this problem, many image matching-based methods are proposed to estimate semantic correspondence between faces in different poses. In this paper, we aim to solve two critical problems in previous image matching-based correspondence learning methods: 1) fail to fully exploit face specific structure information in correspondence estimation and 2) fail to learn personalized correspondence for each probe image. To this end, we first build a model, termed as morphable displacement field (MDF), to encode face specific structure information of semantic correspondence from a set of real samples of correspondences calculated from 3D face models. Then, we propose a maximal likelihood correspondence estimation (MLCE) method to learn personalized correspondence based on maximal likelihood frontal face assumption. After obtaining the semantic correspondence encoded in the learned displacement, we can synthesize virtual frontal images of the profile faces for subsequent recognition. Using linear discriminant analysis method with pixel-intensity features, state-of-the-art performance is achieved on three multipose benchmarks, i.e., CMU-PIE, FERET, and MultiPIE databases. Owe to the rational MDF regularization and the usage of novel maximal likelihood objective, the proposed MLCE method can reliably learn correspondence between faces in different poses even in complex wild environment, i.e., labeled face in the wild database.

Comparison of two different size needles in endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration for diagnosing solid pancreatic lesions

PubMed Central

Xu, Mei-Mei; Jia, Hong-Yu; Yan, Li-Li; Li, Shan-Shan; Zheng, Yue

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: This meta-analysis aimed to provide a pooled analysis of prospective controlled trials comparing the diagnostic accuracy of 22-G and 25-G needles on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS-FNA) of the solid pancreatic mass. Methods: We established a rigorous study protocol according to Cochrane Collaboration recommendations. We systematically searched the PubMed and Embase databases to identify articles to include in the meta-analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated for 22-G and 25-G needles of individual studies from the contingency tables. Results: Eleven prospective controlled trials included a total of 837 patients (412 with 22-G vs 425 with 25-G). Our outcomes revealed that 25-G needles (92% [95% CI, 89%–95%]) have higher sensitivity than 22-G needles (88% [95% CI, 84%–91%]) on solid pancreatic mass EUS-FNA (P = 0.046). However, there were no significant differences between the 2 groups in overall diagnostic specificity (P = 0.842). The pooled positive and negative likelihood ratio of the 22-G needle were 12.61 (95% CI, 5.65–28.14) and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.12–0.21), respectively. The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 12.61 (95% CI, 5.65–28.14), and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.16 (95% CI, 0.12–0.21) for the 22-G needle. The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 8.44 (95% CI, 3.87–18.42), and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.09–0.18) for the 25-G needle. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.97 for the 22-G needle and 0.96 for the 25-G needle. Conclusion: Compared to the study of 22-G EUS-FNA needles, our study showed that 25-G needles have superior sensitivity in the evaluation of solid pancreatic lesions by EUS–FNA. PMID:28151856

Access to Care for Medicare-Medicaid Dually Eligible Beneficiaries: The Role of State Medicaid Payment Policies.

PubMed

Zheng, Nan Tracy; Haber, Susan; Hoover, Sonja; Feng, Zhanlian

2017-12-01

Medicaid programs are not required to pay the full Medicare coinsurance and deductibles for Medicare-Medicaid dually eligible beneficiaries. We examined the association between the percentage of Medicare cost sharing paid by Medicaid and the likelihood that a dually eligible beneficiary used evaluation and management (E&M) services and safety net provider services. Medicare and Medicaid Analytic eXtract enrollment and claims data for 2009. Multivariate analyses used fee-for-service dually eligible and Medicare-only beneficiaries in 20 states. A comparison group of Medicare-only beneficiaries controlled for state factors that might influence utilization. Paying 100 percent of the Medicare cost sharing compared to 20 percent increased the likelihood (relative to Medicare-only) that a dually eligible beneficiary had any E&M visit by 6.4 percent. This difference in the percentage of cost sharing paid decreased the likelihood of using safety net providers, by 37.7 percent for federally qualified health centers and rural health centers, and by 19.8 percent for hospital outpatient departments. Reimbursing the full Medicare cost-sharing amount would improve access for dually eligible beneficiaries, although the magnitude of the effect will vary by state and type of service. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

MrBayes tgMC3++: A High Performance and Resource-Efficient GPU-Oriented Phylogenetic Analysis Method.

PubMed

Ling, Cheng; Hamada, Tsuyoshi; Gao, Jingyang; Zhao, Guoguang; Sun, Donghong; Shi, Weifeng

2016-01-01

MrBayes is a widespread phylogenetic inference tool harnessing empirical evolutionary models and Bayesian statistics. However, the computational cost on the likelihood estimation is very expensive, resulting in undesirably long execution time. Although a number of multi-threaded optimizations have been proposed to speed up MrBayes, there are bottlenecks that severely limit the GPU thread-level parallelism of likelihood estimations. This study proposes a high performance and resource-efficient method for GPU-oriented parallelization of likelihood estimations. Instead of having to rely on empirical programming, the proposed novel decomposition storage model implements high performance data transfers implicitly. In terms of performance improvement, a speedup factor of up to 178 can be achieved on the analysis of simulated datasets by four Tesla K40 cards. In comparison to the other publicly available GPU-oriented MrBayes, the tgMC 3 ++ method (proposed herein) outperforms the tgMC 3 (v1.0), nMC 3 (v2.1.1) and oMC 3 (v1.00) methods by speedup factors of up to 1.6, 1.9 and 2.9, respectively. Moreover, tgMC 3 ++ supports more evolutionary models and gamma categories, which previous GPU-oriented methods fail to take into analysis.

ReplacementMatrix: a web server for maximum-likelihood estimation of amino acid replacement rate matrices.

PubMed

Dang, Cuong Cao; Lefort, Vincent; Le, Vinh Sy; Le, Quang Si; Gascuel, Olivier

2011-10-01

Amino acid replacement rate matrices are an essential basis of protein studies (e.g. in phylogenetics and alignment). A number of general purpose matrices have been proposed (e.g. JTT, WAG, LG) since the seminal work of Margaret Dayhoff and co-workers. However, it has been shown that matrices specific to certain protein groups (e.g. mitochondrial) or life domains (e.g. viruses) differ significantly from general average matrices, and thus perform better when applied to the data to which they are dedicated. This Web server implements the maximum-likelihood estimation procedure that was used to estimate LG, and provides a number of tools and facilities. Users upload a set of multiple protein alignments from their domain of interest and receive the resulting matrix by email, along with statistics and comparisons with other matrices. A non-parametric bootstrap is performed optionally to assess the variability of replacement rate estimates. Maximum-likelihood trees, inferred using the estimated rate matrix, are also computed optionally for each input alignment. Finely tuned procedures and up-to-date ML software (PhyML 3.0, XRATE) are combined to perform all these heavy calculations on our clusters. http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/ReplacementMatrix/ olivier.gascuel@lirmm.fr Supplementary data are available at http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/ReplacementMatrix/

A comparison study of body dysmorphic disorder versus social phobia

PubMed Central

Kelly, Megan M.; Dalrymple, Kristy; Zimmerman, Mark; Phillips, Katharine A.

2012-01-01

Body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) shares many characteristics with social phobia (SP), including high levels of social anxiety and avoidance, but to our knowledge no studies have directly compared these disorders’ demographic and clinical features. Demographic and clinical features were compared in individuals with BDD (n=172), SP (n=644), and comorbid BDD/SP (n=125). SP participants had a significantly earlier age of onset and lower educational attainment than BDD participants. BDD participants were significantly less likely to ever be married than SP participants, had a greater likelihood of ever being psychiatrically hospitalized, and had significantly lower mean GAF scores than SP participants. The two groups had different comorbidity patterns, which included a greater likelihood for BDD participants to have comorbid obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) or an eating disorder, versus a greater likelihood for SP participants to have a comorbid non-OCD anxiety disorder. The comorbid BDD/SP group had significantly greater morbidity across several domains than the SP only group, but not the BDD only group. In summary, although BDD and SP were similar across many demographic and clinical features, they had important differences. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings and address similarities and differences between these disorders across a broader range of variables. PMID:22999105

Transperineal ultrasound compared to evacuation proctography for diagnosing enteroceles and intussusceptions.

PubMed

Weemhoff, M; Kluivers, K B; Govaert, B; Evers, J L H; Kessels, A G H; Baeten, C G

2013-03-01

This study concerns the level of agreement between transperineal ultrasound and evacuation proctography for diagnosing enteroceles and intussusceptions. In a prospective observational study, 50 consecutive women who were planned to have an evacuation proctography underwent transperineal ultrasound too. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive value, as well as the positive and negative likelihood ratio of transperineal ultrasound were assessed in comparison to evacuation proctography. To determine the interobserver agreement of transperineal ultrasound, the quadratic weighted kappa was calculated. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to show the diagnostic capability of transperineal ultrasound. For diagnosing intussusceptions (PPV 1.00), a positive finding on transperineal ultrasound was predictive of an abnormal evacuation proctography. Sensitivity of transperineal ultrasound was poor for intussusceptions (0.25). For diagnosing enteroceles, the positive likelihood ratio was 2.10 and the negative likelihood ratio, 0.85. There are many false-positive findings of enteroceles on ultrasonography (PPV 0.29). The interobserver agreement of the two ultrasonographers assessed as the quadratic weighted kappa of diagnosing enteroceles was 0.44 and that of diagnosing intussusceptions was 0.23. An intussusception on ultrasound is predictive of an abnormal evacuation proctography. For diagnosing enteroceles, the diagnostic quality of transperineal ultrasound was limited compared to evacuation proctography.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa dose response and bathing water infection.

PubMed

Roser, D J; van den Akker, B; Boase, S; Haas, C N; Ashbolt, N J; Rice, S A

2014-03-01

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is the opportunistic pathogen mostly implicated in folliculitis and acute otitis externa in pools and hot tubs. Nevertheless, infection risks remain poorly quantified. This paper reviews disease aetiologies and bacterial skin colonization science to advance dose-response theory development. Three model forms are identified for predicting disease likelihood from pathogen density. Two are based on Furumoto & Mickey's exponential 'single-hit' model and predict infection likelihood and severity (lesions/m2), respectively. 'Third-generation', mechanistic, dose-response algorithm development is additionally scoped. The proposed formulation integrates dispersion, epidermal interaction, and follicle invasion. The review also details uncertainties needing consideration which pertain to water quality, outbreaks, exposure time, infection sites, biofilms, cerumen, environmental factors (e.g. skin saturation, hydrodynamics), and whether P. aeruginosa is endogenous or exogenous. The review's findings are used to propose a conceptual infection model and identify research priorities including pool dose-response modelling, epidermis ecology and infection likelihood-based hygiene management.

A quantum framework for likelihood ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, Rachael L.; He, Yang-Hui; Ormerod, Thomas C.

The ability to calculate precise likelihood ratios is fundamental to science, from Quantum Information Theory through to Quantum State Estimation. However, there is no assumption-free statistical methodology to achieve this. For instance, in the absence of data relating to covariate overlap, the widely used Bayes’ theorem either defaults to the marginal probability driven “naive Bayes’ classifier”, or requires the use of compensatory expectation-maximization techniques. This paper takes an information-theoretic approach in developing a new statistical formula for the calculation of likelihood ratios based on the principles of quantum entanglement, and demonstrates that Bayes’ theorem is a special case of a more general quantum mechanical expression.

Inferring the parameters of a Markov process from snapshots of the steady state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmer, Simon L.; Berg, Johannes

2018-02-01

We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is generally unknown and hard to compute, which prevents the application of established equilibrium inference methods. We propose a quantity we call propagator likelihood, which takes on the role of the likelihood in equilibrium processes. This propagator likelihood is based on fictitious transitions between those configurations of the system which occur in the samples. The propagator likelihood can be derived by minimising the relative entropy between the empirical distribution and a distribution generated by propagating the empirical distribution forward in time. Maximising the propagator likelihood leads to an efficient reconstruction of the parameters of the underlying model in different systems, both with discrete configurations and with continuous configurations. We apply the method to non-equilibrium models from statistical physics and theoretical biology, including the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP), the kinetic Ising model, and replicator dynamics.

Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaowei; Zhu, Hongxiao

2015-02-07

Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

New method to incorporate Type B uncertainty into least-squares procedures in radionuclide metrology.

PubMed

Han, Jubong; Lee, K B; Lee, Jong-Man; Park, Tae Soon; Oh, J S; Oh, Pil-Jei

2016-03-01

We discuss a new method to incorporate Type B uncertainty into least-squares procedures. The new method is based on an extension of the likelihood function from which a conventional least-squares function is derived. The extended likelihood function is the product of the original likelihood function with additional PDFs (Probability Density Functions) that characterize the Type B uncertainties. The PDFs are considered to describe one's incomplete knowledge on correction factors being called nuisance parameters. We use the extended likelihood function to make point and interval estimations of parameters in the basically same way as the least-squares function used in the conventional least-squares method is derived. Since the nuisance parameters are not of interest and should be prevented from appearing in the final result, we eliminate such nuisance parameters by using the profile likelihood. As an example, we present a case study for a linear regression analysis with a common component of Type B uncertainty. In this example we compare the analysis results obtained from using our procedure with those from conventional methods. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Ethnicity moderates the outcomes of self-enhancement and self-improvement themes in expressive writing.

PubMed

Tsai, William; Lau, Anna S; Niles, Andrea N; Coello, Jordan; Lieberman, Matthew D; Ko, Ahra C; Hur, Christopher; Stanton, Annette L

2015-10-01

The current study examined whether writing content related to self-enhancing (viz., downward social comparison and situational attributions) and self-improving (viz., upward social comparison and persistence) motivations were differentially related to expressive writing outcomes among 17 Asian American and 17 European American participants. Content analysis of the essays revealed no significant cultural group differences in the likelihood of engaging in self-enhancing versus self-improving reflections on negative personal experiences. However, cultural group differences were apparent in the relation between self-motivation processes and changes in anxiety and depressive symptoms at 3-month follow-up. Among European Americans, writing that reflected downward social comparison predicted positive outcomes, whereas persistence writing themes were related to poorer outcomes. For Asian Americans, writing about persistence was related to positive outcomes, whereas downward social comparison and situational attributions predicted poorer outcomes. Findings provide evidence suggesting culturally distinct mechanisms for the effects of expressive disclosure. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Software for Quantifying and Simulating Microsatellite Genotyping Error

PubMed Central

Johnson, Paul C.D.; Haydon, Daniel T.

2007-01-01

Microsatellite genetic marker data are exploited in a variety of fields, including forensics, gene mapping, kinship inference and population genetics. In all of these fields, inference can be thwarted by failure to quantify and account for data errors, and kinship inference in particular can benefit from separating errors into two distinct classes: allelic dropout and false alleles. Pedant is MS Windows software for estimating locus-specific maximum likelihood rates of these two classes of error. Estimation is based on comparison of duplicate error-prone genotypes: neither reference genotypes nor pedigree data are required. Other functions include: plotting of error rate estimates and confidence intervals; simulations for performing power analysis and for testing the robustness of error rate estimates to violation of the underlying assumptions; and estimation of expected heterozygosity, which is a required input. The program, documentation and source code are available from http://www.stats.gla.ac.uk/~paulj/pedant.html. PMID:20066126

Comparison of methods for H*(10) calculation from measured LaBr3(Ce) detector spectra.

PubMed

Vargas, A; Cornejo, N; Camp, A

2018-07-01

The Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC) and the Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (CIEMAT) have evaluated methods based on stripping, conversion coefficients and Maximum Likelihood Estimation using Expectation Maximization (ML-EM) in calculating the H*(10) rates from photon pulse-height spectra acquired with a spectrometric LaBr 3 (Ce)(1.5″ × 1.5″) detector. There is a good agreement between results of the different H*(10) rate calculation methods using the spectra measured at the UPC secondary standard calibration laboratory in Barcelona. From the outdoor study at ESMERALDA station in Madrid, it can be concluded that the analysed methods provide results quite similar to those obtained with the reference RSS ionization chamber. In addition, the spectrometric detectors can also facilitate radionuclide identification. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular Identification of Paramecium bursaria Syngens and Studies on Geographic Distribution using Mitochondrial Cytochrome C Oxidase Subunit I (COI).

PubMed

Zagata, Patrycja; Greczek-Stachura, Magdalena; Tarcz, Sebastian; Rautian, Maria

2015-01-01

Paramecium bursaria is composed of five syngens that are morphologically indistinguishable but sexually isolated. The aim of the present study was to confirm by molecular methods (analyses of mitochondrial COI) the identification of P. bursaria syngens originating from different geographical locations. Phylograms constructed using both the neighbor-joining and maximum-likelihood methods based on a comparison of 34 sequences of P. bursaria strains and P. multimicronucleatum, P. caudatum and P.calkinsi strains used as outgroups revealed five clusters which correspond to results obtained previously by mating reaction. Our analysis shows the existence of 24 haplotypes for the COI gene sequence in the studied strains. The interspecies haplotype diversity was Hd = 0.967. We confirmed genetic differentiation between strains of P. bursaria and the occurrence of a correlation between geographical distribution and the correspondent syngen.

The psychological disengagement model among women in science, engineering, and technology.

PubMed

Beaton, Ann M; Tougas, Francine; Rinfret, Natalie; Monger, Tanya

2015-09-01

Psychological responses to personal relative deprivation based on self/outgroup comparisons (named self/outgroup PRD) were explored among women in science, engineering, and technology according to the Psychological Disengagement Model. Three studies revealed that the experience of self/outgroup PRD increased women's likelihood of discounting the feedback they received at work. In turn, discounting led them to devalue their profession. Each study further documented the damaging effect of both psychological disengagement mechanisms. Study 1 (N = 93) revealed that discounting and devaluing were associated with decreased self-esteem. These results were replicated in Studies 2 and 3. Study 2 (N = 163) demonstrated that discounting and devaluing were also associated with reduced self-esteem stability. Study 3 (N = 187) further showed that psychological disengagement was also associated with women's occupational commitment. Theoretical and practical implications of these results are considered. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Virtual Tool Mark Generation for Efficient Striation Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ekstrand, Laura; Zhang, Song; Grieve, Taylor

2014-02-16

This study introduces a tool mark analysis approach based upon 3D scans of screwdriver tip and marked plate surfaces at the micrometer scale from an optical microscope. An open-source 3D graphics software package is utilized to simulate the marking process as the projection of the tip's geometry in the direction of tool travel. The edge of this projection becomes a virtual tool mark that is compared to cross-sections of the marked plate geometry using the statistical likelihood algorithm introduced by Chumbley et al. In a study with both sides of six screwdriver tips and 34 corresponding marks, the method distinguishedmore » known matches from known nonmatches with zero false-positive matches and two false-negative matches. For matches, it could predict the correct marking angle within ±5–10°. Individual comparisons could be made in seconds on a desktop computer, suggesting that the method could save time for examiners.« less

Audio Tracking in Noisy Environments by Acoustic Map and Spectral Signature.

PubMed

Crocco, Marco; Martelli, Samuele; Trucco, Andrea; Zunino, Andrea; Murino, Vittorio

2018-05-01

A novel method is proposed for generic target tracking by audio measurements from a microphone array. To cope with noisy environments characterized by persistent and high energy interfering sources, a classification map (CM) based on spectral signatures is calculated by means of a machine learning algorithm. Next, the CM is combined with the acoustic map, describing the spatial distribution of sound energy, in order to obtain a cleaned joint map in which contributions from the disturbing sources are removed. A likelihood function is derived from this map and fed to a particle filter yielding the target location estimation on the acoustic image. The method is tested on two real environments, addressing both speaker and vehicle tracking. The comparison with a couple of trackers, relying on the acoustic map only, shows a sharp improvement in performance, paving the way to the application of audio tracking in real challenging environments.

A predictive framework for evaluating models of semantic organization in free recall

PubMed Central

Morton, Neal W; Polyn, Sean M.

2016-01-01

Research in free recall has demonstrated that semantic associations reliably influence the organization of search through episodic memory. However, the specific structure of these associations and the mechanisms by which they influence memory search remain unclear. We introduce a likelihood-based model-comparison technique, which embeds a model of semantic structure within the context maintenance and retrieval (CMR) model of human memory search. Within this framework, model variants are evaluated in terms of their ability to predict the specific sequence in which items are recalled. We compare three models of semantic structure, latent semantic analysis (LSA), global vectors (GloVe), and word association spaces (WAS), and find that models using WAS have the greatest predictive power. Furthermore, we find evidence that semantic and temporal organization is driven by distinct item and context cues, rather than a single context cue. This finding provides important constraint for theories of memory search. PMID:28331243

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merrill, R. Gabe; Andraschko, Mark; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, Bill; Earle, Kevin; Goodliff, Kandyce

2008-01-01

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

A robust semi-parametric warping estimator of the survivor function with an application to two-group comparisons

PubMed Central

Hutson, Alan D

2018-01-01

In this note, we develop a new and novel semi-parametric estimator of the survival curve that is comparable to the product-limit estimator under very relaxed assumptions. The estimator is based on a beta parametrization that warps the empirical distribution of the observed censored and uncensored data. The parameters are obtained using a pseudo-maximum likelihood approach adjusting the survival curve accounting for the censored observations. In the univariate setting, the new estimator tends to better extend the range of the survival estimation given a high degree of censoring. However, the key feature of this paper is that we develop a new two-group semi-parametric exact permutation test for comparing survival curves that is generally superior to the classic log-rank and Wilcoxon tests and provides the best global power across a variety of alternatives. The new test is readily extended to the k group setting. PMID:26988931

Accounting for dropout bias using mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Mallinckrodt, C H; Clark, W S; David, S R

2001-01-01

Treatment effects are often evaluated by comparing change over time in outcome measures. However, valid analyses of longitudinal data can be problematic when subjects discontinue (dropout) prior to completing the study. This study assessed the merits of likelihood-based repeated measures analyses (MMRM) compared with fixed-effects analysis of variance where missing values were imputed using the last observation carried forward approach (LOCF) in accounting for dropout bias. Comparisons were made in simulated data and in data from a randomized clinical trial. Subject dropout was introduced in the simulated data to generate ignorable and nonignorable missingness. Estimates of treatment group differences in mean change from baseline to endpoint from MMRM were, on average, markedly closer to the true value than estimates from LOCF in every scenario simulated. Standard errors and confidence intervals from MMRM accurately reflected the uncertainty of the estimates, whereas standard errors and confidence intervals from LOCF underestimated uncertainty.

Allozyme comparison of three Trypanosoma species (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) of toads and frogs by starch-gel electrophoresis.

PubMed

Martin, D S; Desser, S S; Hong, H

1992-04-01

Six metabolic enzymes, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase, glucosephosphate isomerase, isocitrate dehydrogenase, malate dehydrogenase, phosphoglucomutase, and purine nucleoside phosphorylase, from clonal isolates of 3 presumptive species of Trypanosoma (T. fallisi, T. ranarum, and T. rotatorium) from 3 anuran hosts (Bufo americanus, Rana clamitans, and Rana catesbeiana) were compared using starch-gel electrophoresis. Although bands were shared among the different zymodemes of isolates of the same host genus, low genetic polymorphism of the enzyme loci was observed with few apparent shared bands between samples isolated from frogs and toads. A distance value calculated between toad and frog trypanosome isolates suggests the likelihood of long-time separation of species. Cluster analysis based on overall similarity distinguished the trypanosomes of toads and frogs as separate taxa, suggesting that host specificity and observed morphological differences are consistent with heritable allozyme differences.

Comparison of two non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming algorithms applied to autoregressive moving average model structure and parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uilhoorn, F. E.

2016-10-01

In this article, the stochastic modelling approach proposed by Box and Jenkins is treated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem solved with a mesh adaptive direct search and a real-coded genetic class of algorithms. The aim is to estimate the real-valued parameters and non-negative integer, correlated structure of stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. The maximum likelihood function of the stationary ARMA process is embedded in Akaike's information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion, whereas the estimation procedure is based on Kalman filter recursions. The constraints imposed on the objective function enforce stability and invertibility. The best ARMA model is regarded as the global minimum of the non-convex MINLP problem. The robustness and computational performance of the MINLP solvers are compared with brute-force enumeration. Numerical experiments are done for existing time series and one new data set.

A Bayesian Alternative for Multi-objective Ecohydrological Model Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Ajami, H.

2015-12-01

Process-based ecohydrological models combine the study of hydrological, physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, which are usually more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological framework. In our study, a formal Bayesian approach is implemented in an ecohydrological model which combines a hydrological model (HyMOD) and a dynamic vegetation model (DVM). Simulations focused on one objective likelihood (Streamflow/LAI) and multi-objective likelihoods (Streamflow and LAI) with different weights are compared. Uniform, weakly informative and strongly informative prior distributions are used in different simulations. The Kullback-leibler divergence (KLD) is used to measure the dis(similarity) between different priors and corresponding posterior distributions to examine the parameter sensitivity. Results show that different prior distributions can strongly influence posterior distributions for parameters, especially when the available data is limited or parameters are insensitive to the available data. We demonstrate differences in optimized parameters and uncertainty limits in different cases based on multi-objective likelihoods vs. single objective likelihoods. We also demonstrate the importance of appropriately defining the weights of objectives in multi-objective calibration according to different data types.

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

PubMed

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of a Risk-based Online Mammography Intervention on Accuracy of Perceived Risk and Mammography Intentions

PubMed Central

Seitz, Holli H.; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N.

2016-01-01

Objective This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. Methods 2,918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (< 1.5%; ≥ 1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) × 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Results Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk <1.5%. For women with a risk < 1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. Conclusion A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Practice Implications Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. PMID:27178707

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

Maximum likelihood estimation and EM algorithm of Copas-like selection model for publication bias correction.

PubMed

Ning, Jing; Chen, Yong; Piao, Jin

2017-07-01

Publication bias occurs when the published research results are systematically unrepresentative of the population of studies that have been conducted, and is a potential threat to meaningful meta-analysis. The Copas selection model provides a flexible framework for correcting estimates and offers considerable insight into the publication bias. However, maximizing the observed likelihood under the Copas selection model is challenging because the observed data contain very little information on the latent variable. In this article, we study a Copas-like selection model and propose an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation based on the full likelihood. Empirical simulation studies show that the EM algorithm and its associated inferential procedure performs well and avoids the non-convergence problem when maximizing the observed likelihood. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Beyond valence in the perception of likelihood: the role of emotion specificity.

PubMed

DeSteno, D; Petty, R E; Wegener, D T; Rucker, D D

2000-03-01

Positive and negative moods have been shown to increase likelihood estimates of future events matching these states in valence (e.g., E. J. Johnson & A. Tversky, 1983). In the present article, 4 studies provide evidence that this congruency bias (a) is not limited to valence but functions in an emotion-specific manner, (b) derives from the informational value of emotions, and (c) is not the inevitable outcome of likelihood assessment under heightened emotion. Specifically, Study 1 demonstrates that sadness and anger, 2 distinct, negative emotions, differentially bias likelihood estimates of sad and angering events. Studies 2 and 3 replicate this finding in addition to supporting an emotion-as-information (cf. N. Schwarz & G. L. Clore, 1983), as opposed to a memory-based, mediating process for the bias. Finally, Study 4 shows that when the source of the emotion is salient, a reversal of the bias can occur given greater cognitive effort aimed at accuracy.

Phylogenetic relationships of the endangered Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah) and other salamanders of the Plethodon cinereus group (Caudata : Plethodontidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sites, J.W.; Morando, M.; Highton, R.; Huber, F.; Jung, R.E.

2004-01-01

The Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), known from isolated talus slopes on three of the highest mountains in Shenandoah National Park, is listed as state-endangered in Virginia and federally endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. A 1999 paper by G. R. Thurow described P. shenandoah-like salamanders from three localities further south in the Blue Ridge Physiographic Province, which, if confirmed, would represent a range extension for P. shenandoah of approximately 90 km from its nearest known locality. Samples collected from two of these three localities were included in a molecular phylogenetic study of the known populations of P. shenandoah, and all other recognized species in the Plethodon cinereus group, using a 792 bp region of the mitochondrial cytochrome-b gene. Phylogenetic estimates were based on Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and maximum parsimony methods and topologies examined for placement of the new P. shenandoah-like samples relative to all others. All topologies recovered all haplotypes of the P. shenandoah-like animals nested within P. cinereus, and a statistical comparison of the best likelihood tree topology with one with an enforced (Thurow + Shenandoah P. shenandoah) clade revealed that the unconstrained tree had a significantly lower -In L score (P < 0.05, using the Shimodaira-Hasegawa test) than the constraint tree. This result and other anecdotal information give us no solid reason to consider the Thurow report valid. The current recovery program for P. shenandoah should remain focused on populations in Shenandoah National Park.

Sub-200 ps CRT in monolithic scintillator PET detectors using digital SiPM arrays and maximum likelihood interaction time estimation.

PubMed

van Dam, Herman T; Borghi, Giacomo; Seifert, Stefan; Schaart, Dennis R

2013-05-21

Digital silicon photomultiplier (dSiPM) arrays have favorable characteristics for application in monolithic scintillator detectors for time-of-flight positron emission tomography (PET). To fully exploit these benefits, a maximum likelihood interaction time estimation (MLITE) method was developed to derive the time of interaction from the multiple time stamps obtained per scintillation event. MLITE was compared to several deterministic methods. Timing measurements were performed with monolithic scintillator detectors based on novel dSiPM arrays and LSO:Ce,0.2%Ca crystals of 16 × 16 × 10 mm(3), 16 × 16 × 20 mm(3), 24 × 24 × 10 mm(3), and 24 × 24 × 20 mm(3). The best coincidence resolving times (CRTs) for pairs of identical detectors were obtained with MLITE and measured 157 ps, 185 ps, 161 ps, and 184 ps full-width-at-half-maximum (FWHM), respectively. For comparison, a small reference detector, consisting of a 3 × 3 × 5 mm(3) LSO:Ce,0.2%Ca crystal coupled to a single pixel of a dSiPM array, was measured to have a CRT as low as 120 ps FWHM. The results of this work indicate that the influence of the optical transport of the scintillation photons on the timing performance of monolithic scintillator detectors can at least partially be corrected for by utilizing the information contained in the spatio-temporal distribution of the collection of time stamps registered per scintillation event.

Objective assessment of plaster cast quality in pediatric distal forearm fractures: Is there an optimal index?

PubMed

Labronici, Pedro José; Ferreira, Leonardo Termis; Dos Santos Filho, Fernando Claudino; Pires, Robinson Esteves Santos; Gomes, Davi Coutinho Fonseca Fernandes; da Silva, Luiz Henrique Penteado; Gameiro, Vinicius Schott

2017-02-01

Several so-called casting indices are available for objective evaluation of plaster cast quality. The present study sought to investigate four of these indices (gap index, padding index, Canterbury index, and three-point index) as compared to a reference standard (cast index) for evaluation of plaster cast quality after closed reduction of pediatric displaced distal forearm fractures. Forty-three radiographs from patients with displaced distal forearm fractures requiring manipulation were reviewed. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive probability, false-negative probability, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for each of the tested indices. Comparison among indices revealed diagnostic agreement in only 4.7% of cases. The strongest correlation with the cast index was found for the gap index, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.94. The gap index also displayed the best agreement with the cast index, with both indices yielding the same result in 79.1% of assessments. When seeking to assess plaster cast quality, the cast index and gap index should be calculated; if both indices agree, a decision on quality can be made. If the cast and gap indices disagree, the padding index can be calculated as a tiebreaker, and the decision based on the most frequent of the three results. Calculation of the three-point index and Canterbury index appears unnecessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Intranasal Scopolamine in Plasma Saliva and Urine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, L.; Tam, V. H.; Chow, D. S. L.; Putcha, L.

2015-01-01

An intranasal gel dosage formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness (SMS). The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under IND (Investigational New Drug) guidelines. The aim of the project was to develop a PK model that can predict the relationships among plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine concentrations using data collected from the IND clinical trial protocol with INSCOP. Twelve healthy human subjects were administered at three dose levels (0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg) of INSCOP. Serial blood, saliva and urine samples were collected between 5 min to 24 h after dosing and scopolamine concentrations were measured by using a validated LC-MS-MS assay. PK compartmental models, using actual dosing and sampling time, were established using Phoenix (version 1.2). Model selection was based on a likelihood ratio test on the difference of criteria (-2LL (i.e. log-likelihood ratio test)) and comparison of the quality of fit plots. The results: Predictable correlations among scopolamine concentrations in compartments of plasma, saliva and urine were established, and for the first time the model satisfactorily predicted the population and individual PK of INSCOP in plasma, saliva and urine. The model can be utilized to predict the INSCOP plasma concentration by saliva and urine data, and it will be useful for monitoring the PK of scopolamine in space and other remote environments using non-invasive sampling of saliva and/or urine.

Reconstruction of far-field tsunami amplitude distributions from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

The probability distribution of far-field tsunami amplitudes is explained in relation to the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones. Tsunami amplitude distributions at tide gauge stations follow a similar functional form, well described by a tapered Pareto distribution that is parameterized by a power-law exponent and a corner amplitude. Distribution parameters are first established for eight tide gauge stations in the Pacific, using maximum likelihood estimation. A procedure is then developed to reconstruct the tsunami amplitude distribution that consists of four steps: (1) define the distribution of seismic moment at subduction zones; (2) establish a source-station scaling relation from regression analysis; (3) transform the seismic moment distribution to a tsunami amplitude distribution for each subduction zone; and (4) mix the transformed distribution for all subduction zones to an aggregate tsunami amplitude distribution specific to the tide gauge station. The tsunami amplitude distribution is adequately reconstructed for four tide gauge stations using globally constant seismic moment distribution parameters established in previous studies. In comparisons to empirical tsunami amplitude distributions from maximum likelihood estimation, the reconstructed distributions consistently exhibit higher corner amplitude values, implying that in most cases, the empirical catalogs are too short to include the largest amplitudes. Because the reconstructed distribution is based on a catalog of earthquakes that is much larger than the tsunami catalog, it is less susceptible to the effects of record-breaking events and more indicative of the actual distribution of tsunami amplitudes.

Sub-200 ps CRT in monolithic scintillator PET detectors using digital SiPM arrays and maximum likelihood interaction time estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dam, Herman T.; Borghi, Giacomo; Seifert, Stefan; Schaart, Dennis R.

2013-05-01

Digital silicon photomultiplier (dSiPM) arrays have favorable characteristics for application in monolithic scintillator detectors for time-of-flight positron emission tomography (PET). To fully exploit these benefits, a maximum likelihood interaction time estimation (MLITE) method was developed to derive the time of interaction from the multiple time stamps obtained per scintillation event. MLITE was compared to several deterministic methods. Timing measurements were performed with monolithic scintillator detectors based on novel dSiPM arrays and LSO:Ce,0.2%Ca crystals of 16 × 16 × 10 mm3, 16 × 16 × 20 mm3, 24 × 24 × 10 mm3, and 24 × 24 × 20 mm3. The best coincidence resolving times (CRTs) for pairs of identical detectors were obtained with MLITE and measured 157 ps, 185 ps, 161 ps, and 184 ps full-width-at-half-maximum (FWHM), respectively. For comparison, a small reference detector, consisting of a 3 × 3 × 5 mm3 LSO:Ce,0.2%Ca crystal coupled to a single pixel of a dSiPM array, was measured to have a CRT as low as 120 ps FWHM. The results of this work indicate that the influence of the optical transport of the scintillation photons on the timing performance of monolithic scintillator detectors can at least partially be corrected for by utilizing the information contained in the spatio-temporal distribution of the collection of time stamps registered per scintillation event.

FPGA Acceleration of the phylogenetic likelihood function for Bayesian MCMC inference methods.

PubMed

Zierke, Stephanie; Bakos, Jason D

2010-04-12

Likelihood (ML)-based phylogenetic inference has become a popular method for estimating the evolutionary relationships among species based on genomic sequence data. This method is used in applications such as RAxML, GARLI, MrBayes, PAML, and PAUP. The Phylogenetic Likelihood Function (PLF) is an important kernel computation for this method. The PLF consists of a loop with no conditional behavior or dependencies between iterations. As such it contains a high potential for exploiting parallelism using micro-architectural techniques. In this paper, we describe a technique for mapping the PLF and supporting logic onto a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)-based co-processor. By leveraging the FPGA's on-chip DSP modules and the high-bandwidth local memory attached to the FPGA, the resultant co-processor can accelerate ML-based methods and outperform state-of-the-art multi-core processors. We use the MrBayes 3 tool as a framework for designing our co-processor. For large datasets, we estimate that our accelerated MrBayes, if run on a current-generation FPGA, achieves a 10x speedup relative to software running on a state-of-the-art server-class microprocessor. The FPGA-based implementation achieves its performance by deeply pipelining the likelihood computations, performing multiple floating-point operations in parallel, and through a natural log approximation that is chosen specifically to leverage a deeply pipelined custom architecture. Heterogeneous computing, which combines general-purpose processors with special-purpose co-processors such as FPGAs and GPUs, is a promising approach for high-performance phylogeny inference as shown by the growing body of literature in this field. FPGAs in particular are well-suited for this task because of their low power consumption as compared to many-core processors and Graphics Processor Units (GPUs).

An Elaboration Likelihood Model Based Longitudinal Analysis of Attitude Change during the Process of IT Acceptance via Education Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Woong-Kyu

2012-01-01

The principal objective of this study was to gain insight into attitude changes occurring during IT acceptance from the perspective of elaboration likelihood model (ELM). In particular, the primary target of this study was the process of IT acceptance through an education program. Although the Internet and computers are now quite ubiquitous, and…

ATAC Autocuer Modeling Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

the analysis of the simple rectangular scrnentation (1) is based on detection and estimation theory (2). This approach uses the concept of maximum ...continuous wave forms. In order to develop the principles of maximum likelihood, it is con- venient to develop the principles for the "classical...the concept of maximum likelihood is significant in that it provides the optimum performance of the detection/estimation problem. With a knowledge of

Comparative shotgun proteomics using spectral count data and quasi-likelihood modeling.

PubMed

Li, Ming; Gray, William; Zhang, Haixia; Chung, Christine H; Billheimer, Dean; Yarbrough, Wendell G; Liebler, Daniel C; Shyr, Yu; Slebos, Robbert J C

2010-08-06

Shotgun proteomics provides the most powerful analytical platform for global inventory of complex proteomes using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and allows a global analysis of protein changes. Nevertheless, sampling of complex proteomes by current shotgun proteomics platforms is incomplete, and this contributes to variability in assessment of peptide and protein inventories by spectral counting approaches. Thus, shotgun proteomics data pose challenges in comparing proteomes from different biological states. We developed an analysis strategy using quasi-likelihood Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM), included in a graphical interface software package (QuasiTel) that reads standard output from protein assemblies created by IDPicker, an HTML-based user interface to query shotgun proteomic data sets. This approach was compared to four other statistical analysis strategies: Student t test, Wilcoxon rank test, Fisher's Exact test, and Poisson-based GLM. We analyzed the performance of these tests to identify differences in protein levels based on spectral counts in a shotgun data set in which equimolar amounts of 48 human proteins were spiked at different levels into whole yeast lysates. Both GLM approaches and the Fisher Exact test performed adequately, each with their unique limitations. We subsequently compared the proteomes of normal tonsil epithelium and HNSCC using this approach and identified 86 proteins with differential spectral counts between normal tonsil epithelium and HNSCC. We selected 18 proteins from this comparison for verification of protein levels between the individual normal and tumor tissues using liquid chromatography-multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry (LC-MRM-MS). This analysis confirmed the magnitude and direction of the protein expression differences in all 6 proteins for which reliable data could be obtained. Our analysis demonstrates that shotgun proteomic data sets from different tissue phenotypes are sufficiently rich in quantitative information and that statistically significant differences in proteins spectral counts reflect the underlying biology of the samples.

Comparative Shotgun Proteomics Using Spectral Count Data and Quasi-Likelihood Modeling

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Shotgun proteomics provides the most powerful analytical platform for global inventory of complex proteomes using liquid chromatography−tandem mass spectrometry (LC−MS/MS) and allows a global analysis of protein changes. Nevertheless, sampling of complex proteomes by current shotgun proteomics platforms is incomplete, and this contributes to variability in assessment of peptide and protein inventories by spectral counting approaches. Thus, shotgun proteomics data pose challenges in comparing proteomes from different biological states. We developed an analysis strategy using quasi-likelihood Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM), included in a graphical interface software package (QuasiTel) that reads standard output from protein assemblies created by IDPicker, an HTML-based user interface to query shotgun proteomic data sets. This approach was compared to four other statistical analysis strategies: Student t test, Wilcoxon rank test, Fisher’s Exact test, and Poisson-based GLM. We analyzed the performance of these tests to identify differences in protein levels based on spectral counts in a shotgun data set in which equimolar amounts of 48 human proteins were spiked at different levels into whole yeast lysates. Both GLM approaches and the Fisher Exact test performed adequately, each with their unique limitations. We subsequently compared the proteomes of normal tonsil epithelium and HNSCC using this approach and identified 86 proteins with differential spectral counts between normal tonsil epithelium and HNSCC. We selected 18 proteins from this comparison for verification of protein levels between the individual normal and tumor tissues using liquid chromatography−multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry (LC−MRM-MS). This analysis confirmed the magnitude and direction of the protein expression differences in all 6 proteins for which reliable data could be obtained. Our analysis demonstrates that shotgun proteomic data sets from different tissue phenotypes are sufficiently rich in quantitative information and that statistically significant differences in proteins spectral counts reflect the underlying biology of the samples. PMID:20586475

Approaches to setting organism-based ballast water discharge standards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Frazier, Melanie

2013-01-01

As a vector by which foreign species invade coastal and freshwater waterbodies, ballast water discharge from ships is recognized as a major environmental threat. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) drafted an international treaty establishing ballast water discharge standards based on the number of viable organisms per volume of ballast discharge for different organism size classes. Concerns that the IMO standards are not sufficiently protective have initiated several state and national efforts in the United States to develop more stringent standards. We evaluated seven approaches to establishing discharge standards for the >50-μm size class: (1) expert opinion/management consensus, (2) zero detectable living organisms, (3) natural invasion rates, (4) reaction–diffusion models, (5) population viability analysis (PVA) models, (6) per capita invasion probabilities (PCIP), and (7) experimental studies. Because of the difficulty in synthesizing scientific knowledge in an unbiased and transparent fashion, we recommend the use of quantitative models instead of expert opinion. The actual organism concentration associated with a “zero detectable organisms” standard is defined by the statistical rigor of its monitoring program; thus it is not clear whether such a standard is as stringent as other standards. For several reasons, the natural invasion rate, reaction–diffusion, and experimental approaches are not considered suitable for generating discharge standards. PVA models can be used to predict the likelihood of establishment of introduced species but are limited by a lack of population vital rates for species characteristic of ballast water discharges. Until such rates become available, PVA models are better suited to evaluate relative efficiency of proposed standards rather than predicting probabilities of invasion. The PCIP approach, which is based on historical invasion rates at a regional scale, appears to circumvent many of the indicated problems, although it may underestimate invasions by asexual and parthenogenic species. Further research is needed to better define propagule dose–responses, densities at which Allee effects occur, approaches to predicting the likelihood of invasion from multi-species introductions, and generation of formal comparisons of approaches using standardized scenarios.

Multi-Contrast Multi-Atlas Parcellation of Diffusion Tensor Imaging of the Human Brain

PubMed Central

Tang, Xiaoying; Yoshida, Shoko; Hsu, John; Huisman, Thierry A. G. M.; Faria, Andreia V.; Oishi, Kenichi; Kutten, Kwame; Poretti, Andrea; Li, Yue; Miller, Michael I.; Mori, Susumu

2014-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel method for parcellating the human brain into 193 anatomical structures based on diffusion tensor images (DTIs). This was accomplished in the setting of multi-contrast diffeomorphic likelihood fusion using multiple DTI atlases. DTI images are modeled as high dimensional fields, with each voxel exhibiting a vector valued feature comprising of mean diffusivity (MD), fractional anisotropy (FA), and fiber angle. For each structure, the probability distribution of each element in the feature vector is modeled as a mixture of Gaussians, the parameters of which are estimated from the labeled atlases. The structure-specific feature vector is then used to parcellate the test image. For each atlas, a likelihood is iteratively computed based on the structure-specific vector feature. The likelihoods from multiple atlases are then fused. The updating and fusing of the likelihoods is achieved based on the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation problems. We first demonstrate the performance of the algorithm by examining the parcellation accuracy of 18 structures from 25 subjects with a varying degree of structural abnormality. Dice values ranging 0.8–0.9 were obtained. In addition, strong correlation was found between the volume size of the automated and the manual parcellation. Then, we present scan-rescan reproducibility based on another dataset of 16 DTI images – an average of 3.73%, 1.91%, and 1.79% for volume, mean FA, and mean MD respectively. Finally, the range of anatomical variability in the normal population was quantified for each structure. PMID:24809486

Improved relocatable over-the-horizon radar detection and tracking using the maximum likelihood adaptive neural system algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perlovsky, Leonid I.; Webb, Virgil H.; Bradley, Scott R.; Hansen, Christopher A.

1998-07-01

An advanced detection and tracking system is being developed for the U.S. Navy's Relocatable Over-the-Horizon Radar (ROTHR) to provide improved tracking performance against small aircraft typically used in drug-smuggling activities. The development is based on the Maximum Likelihood Adaptive Neural System (MLANS), a model-based neural network that combines advantages of neural network and model-based algorithmic approaches. The objective of the MLANS tracker development effort is to address user requirements for increased detection and tracking capability in clutter and improved track position, heading, and speed accuracy. The MLANS tracker is expected to outperform other approaches to detection and tracking for the following reasons. It incorporates adaptive internal models of target return signals, target tracks and maneuvers, and clutter signals, which leads to concurrent clutter suppression, detection, and tracking (track-before-detect). It is not combinatorial and thus does not require any thresholding or peak picking and can track in low signal-to-noise conditions. It incorporates superresolution spectrum estimation techniques exceeding the performance of conventional maximum likelihood and maximum entropy methods. The unique spectrum estimation method is based on the Einsteinian interpretation of the ROTHR received energy spectrum as a probability density of signal frequency. The MLANS neural architecture and learning mechanism are founded on spectrum models and maximization of the "Einsteinian" likelihood, allowing knowledge of the physical behavior of both targets and clutter to be injected into the tracker algorithms. The paper describes the addressed requirements and expected improvements, theoretical foundations, engineering methodology, and results of the development effort to date.

GNSS Spoofing Detection and Mitigation Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation

PubMed Central

Li, Hong; Lu, Mingquan

2017-01-01

Spoofing attacks are threatening the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based positioning technique is a direct positioning method originally developed for multipath rejection and weak signal processing. We find this method also has a potential ability for GNSS anti-spoofing since a spoofing attack that misleads the positioning and timing result will cause distortion to the MLE cost function. Based on the method, an estimation-cancellation approach is presented to detect spoofing attacks and recover the navigation solution. A statistic is derived for spoofing detection with the principle of the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT). Then, the MLE cost function is decomposed to further validate whether the navigation solution obtained by MLE-based positioning is formed by consistent signals. Both formulae and simulations are provided to evaluate the anti-spoofing performance. Experiments with recordings in real GNSS spoofing scenarios are also performed to validate the practicability of the approach. Results show that the method works even when the code phase differences between the spoofing and authentic signals are much less than one code chip, which can improve the availability of GNSS service greatly under spoofing attacks. PMID:28665318

GNSS Spoofing Detection and Mitigation Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Li, Hong; Lu, Mingquan

2017-06-30

Spoofing attacks are threatening the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based positioning technique is a direct positioning method originally developed for multipath rejection and weak signal processing. We find this method also has a potential ability for GNSS anti-spoofing since a spoofing attack that misleads the positioning and timing result will cause distortion to the MLE cost function. Based on the method, an estimation-cancellation approach is presented to detect spoofing attacks and recover the navigation solution. A statistic is derived for spoofing detection with the principle of the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT). Then, the MLE cost function is decomposed to further validate whether the navigation solution obtained by MLE-based positioning is formed by consistent signals. Both formulae and simulations are provided to evaluate the anti-spoofing performance. Experiments with recordings in real GNSS spoofing scenarios are also performed to validate the practicability of the approach. Results show that the method works even when the code phase differences between the spoofing and authentic signals are much less than one code chip, which can improve the availability of GNSS service greatly under spoofing attacks.

Multi-Sample Cluster Analysis Using Akaike’s Information Criterion.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-20

Intervals. For more details on these test procedures refer to Gabriel [7J, Krishnaiah (CIlUj, [11]), Srivastava [16), and others. -3- As noted in Consul...723. (4] Consul, P. C. (1969), "The Exact Distributions of Likelihood Criteria for Different Hypotheses," in P. R. Krishnaiah (Ed.), Multivariate...1178. [7] Gabriel, K. R. (1969), "A Comparison of Some lethods of Simultaneous Inference in MANOVA," in P. R. Krishnaiah (Ed.), Multivariate Analysis-lI

Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Technology Initiatives (NTIP). Delivery Order 0039: Statistical Comparison of Competing Material Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

adapted from Kass and Rafferty (1995) and Congdon (2001). Page 10 of 57 density adjusted for resin content, z, since resin contributes to the density...c.f.: Congdon , 2001). How to Download the WinBUGS Software Package BUGS was originally a statistical research project at the Medical Research...Likelihood Estimation,” July 2002, working paper to be published. 18) Congdon , Peter, Bayesian Statistical Modeling, Wiley, 2001 19) Cox, D. R. and

Trellises and Trellis-Based Decoding Algorithms for Linear Block Codes. Part 3; A Recursive Maximum Likelihood Decoding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc

1998-01-01

The Viterbi algorithm is indeed a very simple and efficient method of implementing the maximum likelihood decoding. However, if we take advantage of the structural properties in a trellis section, other efficient trellis-based decoding algorithms can be devised. Recently, an efficient trellis-based recursive maximum likelihood decoding (RMLD) algorithm for linear block codes has been proposed. This algorithm is more efficient than the conventional Viterbi algorithm in both computation and hardware requirements. Most importantly, the implementation of this algorithm does not require the construction of the entire code trellis, only some special one-section trellises of relatively small state and branch complexities are needed for constructing path (or branch) metric tables recursively. At the end, there is only one table which contains only the most likely code-word and its metric for a given received sequence r = (r(sub 1), r(sub 2),...,r(sub n)). This algorithm basically uses the divide and conquer strategy. Furthermore, it allows parallel/pipeline processing of received sequences to speed up decoding.

A scan statistic for binary outcome based on hypergeometric probability model, with an application to detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis.

PubMed

Zhao, Xing; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Zijian; Guo, Pengfei; He, Hongyan; Zhang, Tao; Duan, Lei; Li, Xiaosong

2013-01-01

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.

Evidence-Based Occupational Hearing Screening I: Modeling the Effects of Real-World Noise Environments on the Likelihood of Effective Speech Communication.

PubMed

Soli, Sigfrid D; Giguère, Christian; Laroche, Chantal; Vaillancourt, Véronique; Dreschler, Wouter A; Rhebergen, Koenraad S; Harkins, Kevin; Ruckstuhl, Mark; Ramulu, Pradeep; Meyers, Lawrence S

The objectives of this study were to (1) identify essential hearing-critical job tasks for public safety and law enforcement personnel; (2) determine the locations and real-world noise environments where these tasks are performed; (3) characterize each noise environment in terms of its impact on the likelihood of effective speech communication, considering the effects of different levels of vocal effort, communication distances, and repetition; and (4) use this characterization to define an objective normative reference for evaluating the ability of individuals to perform essential hearing-critical job tasks in noisy real-world environments. Data from five occupational hearing studies performed over a 17-year period for various public safety agencies were analyzed. In each study, job task analyses by job content experts identified essential hearing-critical tasks and the real-world noise environments where these tasks are performed. These environments were visited, and calibrated recordings of each noise environment were made. The extended speech intelligibility index (ESII) was calculated for each 4-sec interval in each recording. These data, together with the estimated ESII value required for effective speech communication by individuals with normal hearing, allowed the likelihood of effective speech communication in each noise environment for different levels of vocal effort and communication distances to be determined. These likelihoods provide an objective norm-referenced and standardized means of characterizing the predicted impact of real-world noise on the ability to perform essential hearing-critical tasks. A total of 16 noise environments for law enforcement personnel and eight noise environments for corrections personnel were analyzed. Effective speech communication was essential to hearing-critical tasks performed in these environments. Average noise levels, ranged from approximately 70 to 87 dBA in law enforcement environments and 64 to 80 dBA in corrections environments. The likelihood of effective speech communication at communication distances of 0.5 and 1 m was often less than 0.50 for normal vocal effort. Likelihood values often increased to 0.80 or more when raised or loud vocal effort was used. Effective speech communication at and beyond 5 m was often unlikely, regardless of vocal effort. ESII modeling of nonstationary real-world noise environments may prove an objective means of characterizing their impact on the likelihood of effective speech communication. The normative reference provided by these measures predicts the extent to which hearing impairments that increase the ESII value required for effective speech communication also decrease the likelihood of effective speech communication. These predictions may provide an objective evidence-based link between the essential hearing-critical job task requirements of public safety and law enforcement personnel and ESII-based hearing assessment of individuals who seek to perform these jobs.

GHEP-ISFG collaborative simulated exercise for DVI/MPI: Lessons learned about large-scale profile database comparisons.

PubMed

Vullo, Carlos M; Romero, Magdalena; Catelli, Laura; Šakić, Mustafa; Saragoni, Victor G; Jimenez Pleguezuelos, María Jose; Romanini, Carola; Anjos Porto, Maria João; Puente Prieto, Jorge; Bofarull Castro, Alicia; Hernandez, Alexis; Farfán, María José; Prieto, Victoria; Alvarez, David; Penacino, Gustavo; Zabalza, Santiago; Hernández Bolaños, Alejandro; Miguel Manterola, Irati; Prieto, Lourdes; Parsons, Thomas

2016-03-01

The GHEP-ISFG Working Group has recognized the importance of assisting DNA laboratories to gain expertise in handling DVI or missing persons identification (MPI) projects which involve the need for large-scale genetic profile comparisons. Eleven laboratories participated in a DNA matching exercise to identify victims from a hypothetical conflict with 193 missing persons. The post mortem database was comprised of 87 skeletal remain profiles from a secondary mass grave displaying a minimal number of 58 individuals with evidence of commingling. The reference database was represented by 286 family reference profiles with diverse pedigrees. The goal of the exercise was to correctly discover re-associations and family matches. The results of direct matching for commingled remains re-associations were correct and fully concordant among all laboratories. However, the kinship analysis for missing persons identifications showed variable results among the participants. There was a group of laboratories with correct, concordant results but nearly half of the others showed discrepant results exhibiting likelihood ratio differences of several degrees of magnitude in some cases. Three main errors were detected: (a) some laboratories did not use the complete reference family genetic data to report the match with the remains, (b) the identity and/or non-identity hypotheses were sometimes wrongly expressed in the likelihood ratio calculations, and (c) many laboratories did not properly evaluate the prior odds for the event. The results suggest that large-scale profile comparisons for DVI or MPI is a challenge for forensic genetics laboratories and the statistical treatment of DNA matching and the Bayesian framework should be better standardized among laboratories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying the elaboration likelihood model of persuasion to a videotape-based eating disorders primary prevention program for adolescent girls.

PubMed

Withers, Giselle F; Wertheim, Eleanor H

2004-01-01

This study applied principles from the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion to the prevention of disordered eating. Early adolescent girls watched either a preventive videotape only (n=114) or video plus post-video activity (verbal discussion, written exercises, or control discussion) (n=187); or had no intervention (n=104). Significantly more body image and knowledge improvements occurred at post video and follow-up in the intervention groups compared to no intervention. There were no outcome differences among intervention groups, or between girls with high or low elaboration likelihood. Further research is needed in integrating the videotape into a broader prevention package.

On Bayesian Testing of Additive Conjoint Measurement Axioms Using Synthetic Likelihood.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2018-06-01

This article introduces a Bayesian method for testing the axioms of additive conjoint measurement. The method is based on an importance sampling algorithm that performs likelihood-free, approximate Bayesian inference using a synthetic likelihood to overcome the analytical intractability of this testing problem. This new method improves upon previous methods because it provides an omnibus test of the entire hierarchy of cancellation axioms, beyond double cancellation. It does so while accounting for the posterior uncertainty that is inherent in the empirical orderings that are implied by these axioms, together. The new method is illustrated through a test of the cancellation axioms on a classic survey data set, and through the analysis of simulated data.

Assessing performance and validating finite element simulations using probabilistic knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolin, Ronald M.; Rodriguez, E. A.

Two probabilistic approaches for assessing performance are presented. The first approach assesses probability of failure by simultaneously modeling all likely events. The probability each event causes failure along with the event's likelihood of occurrence contribute to the overall probability of failure. The second assessment method is based on stochastic sampling using an influence diagram. Latin-hypercube sampling is used to stochastically assess events. The overall probability of failure is taken as the maximum probability of failure of all the events. The Likelihood of Occurrence simulation suggests failure does not occur while the Stochastic Sampling approach predicts failure. The Likelihood of Occurrencemore » results are used to validate finite element predictions.« less

Bayesian analysis of time-series data under case-crossover designs: posterior equivalence and inference.

PubMed

Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart; Ghosh, Malay

2013-12-01

Case-crossover designs are widely used to study short-term exposure effects on the risk of acute adverse health events. While the frequentist literature on this topic is vast, there is no Bayesian work in this general area. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper establishes Bayesian equivalence results that require characterization of the set of priors under which the posterior distributions of the risk ratio parameters based on a case-crossover and time-series analysis are identical. Second, the paper studies inferential issues under case-crossover designs in a Bayesian framework. Traditionally, a conditional logistic regression is used for inference on risk-ratio parameters in case-crossover studies. We consider instead a more general full likelihood-based approach which makes less restrictive assumptions on the risk functions. Formulation of a full likelihood leads to growth in the number of parameters proportional to the sample size. We propose a semi-parametric Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet process prior to handle the random nuisance parameters that appear in a full likelihood formulation. We carry out a simulation study to compare the Bayesian methods based on full and conditional likelihood with the standard frequentist approaches for case-crossover and time-series analysis. The proposed methods are illustrated through the Detroit Asthma Morbidity, Air Quality and Traffic study, which examines the association between acute asthma risk and ambient air pollutant concentrations. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Asymptotic formulae for likelihood-based tests of new physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Glen; Cranmer, Kyle; Gross, Eilam; Vitells, Ofer

2011-02-01

We describe likelihood-based statistical tests for use in high energy physics for the discovery of new phenomena and for construction of confidence intervals on model parameters. We focus on the properties of the test procedures that allow one to account for systematic uncertainties. Explicit formulae for the asymptotic distributions of test statistics are derived using results of Wilks and Wald. We motivate and justify the use of a representative data set, called the "Asimov data set", which provides a simple method to obtain the median experimental sensitivity of a search or measurement as well as fluctuations about this expectation.

Gyro-based Maximum-Likelihood Thruster Fault Detection and Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Edward; Lages, Chris; Mah, Robert; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

When building smaller, less expensive spacecraft, there is a need for intelligent fault tolerance vs. increased hardware redundancy. If fault tolerance can be achieved using existing navigation sensors, cost and vehicle complexity can be reduced. A maximum likelihood-based approach to thruster fault detection and identification (FDI) for spacecraft is developed here and applied in simulation to the X-38 space vehicle. The system uses only gyro signals to detect and identify hard, abrupt, single and multiple jet on- and off-failures. Faults are detected within one second and identified within one to five accords,

A unifying framework for marginalized random intercept models of correlated binary outcomes

PubMed Central

Swihart, Bruce J.; Caffo, Brian S.; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M.

2013-01-01

We demonstrate that many current approaches for marginal modeling of correlated binary outcomes produce likelihoods that are equivalent to the copula-based models herein. These general copula models of underlying latent threshold random variables yield likelihood-based models for marginal fixed effects estimation and interpretation in the analysis of correlated binary data with exchangeable correlation structures. Moreover, we propose a nomenclature and set of model relationships that substantially elucidates the complex area of marginalized random intercept models for binary data. A diverse collection of didactic mathematical and numerical examples are given to illustrate concepts. PMID:25342871

ModelTest Server: a web-based tool for the statistical selection of models of nucleotide substitution online

PubMed Central

Posada, David

2006-01-01

ModelTest server is a web-based application for the selection of models of nucleotide substitution using the program ModelTest. The server takes as input a text file with likelihood scores for the set of candidate models. Models can be selected with hierarchical likelihood ratio tests, or with the Akaike or Bayesian information criteria. The output includes several statistics for the assessment of model selection uncertainty, for model averaging or to estimate the relative importance of model parameters. The server can be accessed at . PMID:16845102

The Fecal Microbiota Profile and Bronchiolitis in Infants

PubMed Central

Linnemann, Rachel W.; Mansbach, Jonathan M.; Ajami, Nadim J.; Espinola, Janice A.; Petrosino, Joseph F.; Piedra, Pedro A.; Stevenson, Michelle D.; Sullivan, Ashley F.; Thompson, Amy D.; Camargo, Carlos A.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the association of gut microbiota, a potentially modifiable factor, with bronchiolitis in infants. We aimed to determine the association of fecal microbiota with bronchiolitis in infants. METHODS: We conducted a case–control study. As a part of multicenter prospective study, we collected stool samples from 40 infants hospitalized with bronchiolitis. We concurrently enrolled 115 age-matched healthy controls. By applying 16S rRNA gene sequencing and an unbiased clustering approach to these 155 fecal samples, we identified microbiota profiles and determined the association of microbiota profiles with likelihood of bronchiolitis. RESULTS: Overall, the median age was 3 months, 55% were male, and 54% were non-Hispanic white. Unbiased clustering of fecal microbiota identified 4 distinct profiles: Escherichia-dominant profile (30%), Bifidobacterium-dominant profile (21%), Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile (22%), and Bacteroides-dominant profile (28%). The proportion of bronchiolitis was lowest in infants with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile (15%) and highest in the Bacteroides-dominant profile (44%), corresponding to an odds ratio of 4.59 (95% confidence interval, 1.58–15.5; P = .008). In the multivariable model, the significant association between the Bacteroides-dominant profile and a greater likelihood of bronchiolitis persisted (odds ratio for comparison with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile, 4.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.56–12.0; P = .005). In contrast, the likelihood of bronchiolitis in infants with the Escherichia-dominant or Bifidobacterium-dominant profile was not significantly different compared with those with the Enterobacter/Veillonella-dominant profile. CONCLUSIONS: In this case–control study, we identified 4 distinct fecal microbiota profiles in infants. The Bacteroides-dominant profile was associated with a higher likelihood of bronchiolitis. PMID:27354456

Urban Options for Psychological Restoration: Common Strategies in Everyday Situations.

PubMed

Staats, Henk; Jahncke, Helena; Herzog, Thomas R; Hartig, Terry

2016-01-01

Given the need for knowledge on the restorative potential of urban settings, we sought to estimate the effects of personal and contextual factors on preferences and restoration likelihood assessments for different urban activities-in-environments. We also sought to study the generality of these effects across different countries. We conducted a true experiment with convenience samples of university students in the Netherlands (n = 80), Sweden (n = 100), and the USA (n = 316). In each country, the experiment had a mixed design with activities-in-environments (sitting in a park, sitting in a cafe, walking in a shopping mall, walking along a busy street) manipulated within-subjects and the need for restoration (attentional fatigue, no attentional fatigue) and immediate social context (in company, alone) manipulated between-subjects. The manipulations relied on previously tested scenarios describing everyday situations that participants were instructed to remember and imagine themselves being in. For each imagined situation (activity-in-environment with antecedent fatigue condition and immediate social context), subjects provided two criterion measures: general preference and the likelihood of achieving psychological restoration. The settings received different preference and restoration likelihood ratings as expected, affirming that a busy street, often used in comparisons with natural settings, is not representative of the restorative potential of urban settings. Being with a close friend and attentional fatigue both moderated ratings for specific settings. Findings of additional moderation by country of residence caution against broad generalizations regarding preferences for and the expected restorative effects of different urban settings. Preferences and restoration likelihood ratings for urban activity-environment combinations are subject to multiple personal and contextual determinants, including level of attentional fatigue, being alone versus in company, and broader aspects of the urban context that vary across cities and countries. Claims regarding a lack of restorative quality in urban environments are problematic.

DarkBit: a GAMBIT module for computing dark matter observables and likelihoods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bringmann, Torsten; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Kahlhoefer, Felix; Kvellestad, Anders; Putze, Antje; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin; Wild, Sebastian

2017-12-01

We introduce DarkBit, an advanced software code for computing dark matter constraints on various extensions to the Standard Model of particle physics, comprising both new native code and interfaces to external packages. This release includes a dedicated signal yield calculator for gamma-ray observations, which significantly extends current tools by implementing a cascade-decay Monte Carlo, as well as a dedicated likelihood calculator for current and future experiments ( gamLike). This provides a general solution for studying complex particle physics models that predict dark matter annihilation to a multitude of final states. We also supply a direct detection package that models a large range of direct detection experiments ( DDCalc), and that provides the corresponding likelihoods for arbitrary combinations of spin-independent and spin-dependent scattering processes. Finally, we provide custom relic density routines along with interfaces to DarkSUSY, micrOMEGAs, and the neutrino telescope likelihood package nulike. DarkBit is written in the framework of the Global And Modular Beyond the Standard Model Inference Tool ( GAMBIT), providing seamless integration into a comprehensive statistical fitting framework that allows users to explore new models with both particle and astrophysics constraints, and a consistent treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this paper we describe its main functionality, provide a guide to getting started quickly, and show illustrative examples for results obtained with DarkBit (both as a stand-alone tool and as a GAMBIT module). This includes a quantitative comparison between two of the main dark matter codes ( DarkSUSY and micrOMEGAs), and application of DarkBit 's advanced direct and indirect detection routines to a simple effective dark matter model.

Distributed multimodal data fusion for large scale wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertin, Emre

2006-05-01

Sensor network technology has enabled new surveillance systems where sensor nodes equipped with processing and communication capabilities can collaboratively detect, classify and track targets of interest over a large surveillance area. In this paper we study distributed fusion of multimodal sensor data for extracting target information from a large scale sensor network. Optimal tracking, classification, and reporting of threat events require joint consideration of multiple sensor modalities. Multiple sensor modalities improve tracking by reducing the uncertainty in the track estimates as well as resolving track-sensor data association problems. Our approach to solving the fusion problem with large number of multimodal sensors is construction of likelihood maps. The likelihood maps provide a summary data for the solution of the detection, tracking and classification problem. The likelihood map presents the sensory information in an easy format for the decision makers to interpret and is suitable with fusion of spatial prior information such as maps, imaging data from stand-off imaging sensors. We follow a statistical approach to combine sensor data at different levels of uncertainty and resolution. The likelihood map transforms each sensor data stream to a spatio-temporal likelihood map ideally suitable for fusion with imaging sensor outputs and prior geographic information about the scene. We also discuss distributed computation of the likelihood map using a gossip based algorithm and present simulation results.

Quantitative modeling of reservoir-triggered seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hainzl, S.; Catalli, F.; Dahm, T.; Heinicke, J.; Woith, H.

2017-12-01

Reservoir-triggered seismicity might occur as the response to the crustal stress caused by the poroelastic response to the weight of the water volume and fluid diffusion. Several cases of high correlations have been found in the past decades. However, crustal stresses might be altered by many other processes such as continuous tectonic stressing and coseismic stress changes. Because reservoir-triggered stresses decay quickly with distance, even tidal or rainfall-triggered stresses might be of similar size at depth. To account for simultaneous stress sources in a physically meaningful way, we apply a seismicity model based on calculated stress changes in the crust and laboratory-derived friction laws. Based on the observed seismicity, the model parameters can be determined by maximum likelihood method. The model leads to quantitative predictions of the variations of seismicity rate in space and time which can be used for hypothesis testing and forecasting. For case studies in Talala (India), Val d'Agri (Italy) and Novy Kostel (Czech Republic), we show the comparison of predicted and observed seismicity, demonstrating the potential and limitations of the approach.

Equivalence of binormal likelihood-ratio and bi-chi-squared ROC curve models

PubMed Central

Hillis, Stephen L.

2015-01-01

A basic assumption for a meaningful diagnostic decision variable is that there is a monotone relationship between it and its likelihood ratio. This relationship, however, generally does not hold for a decision variable that results in a binormal ROC curve. As a result, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve estimation based on the assumption of a binormal ROC-curve model produces improper ROC curves that have “hooks,” are not concave over the entire domain, and cross the chance line. Although in practice this “improperness” is usually not noticeable, sometimes it is evident and problematic. To avoid this problem, Metz and Pan proposed basing ROC-curve estimation on the assumption of a binormal likelihood-ratio (binormal-LR) model, which states that the decision variable is an increasing transformation of the likelihood-ratio function of a random variable having normal conditional diseased and nondiseased distributions. However, their development is not easy to follow. I show that the binormal-LR model is equivalent to a bi-chi-squared model in the sense that the families of corresponding ROC curves are the same. The bi-chi-squared formulation provides an easier-to-follow development of the binormal-LR ROC curve and its properties in terms of well-known distributions. PMID:26608405

Robust Multi-Frame Adaptive Optics Image Restoration Algorithm Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Poisson Statistics.

PubMed

Li, Dongming; Sun, Changming; Yang, Jinhua; Liu, Huan; Peng, Jiaqi; Zhang, Lijuan

2017-04-06

An adaptive optics (AO) system provides real-time compensation for atmospheric turbulence. However, an AO image is usually of poor contrast because of the nature of the imaging process, meaning that the image contains information coming from both out-of-focus and in-focus planes of the object, which also brings about a loss in quality. In this paper, we present a robust multi-frame adaptive optics image restoration algorithm via maximum likelihood estimation. Our proposed algorithm uses a maximum likelihood method with image regularization as the basic principle, and constructs the joint log likelihood function for multi-frame AO images based on a Poisson distribution model. To begin with, a frame selection method based on image variance is applied to the observed multi-frame AO images to select images with better quality to improve the convergence of a blind deconvolution algorithm. Then, by combining the imaging conditions and the AO system properties, a point spread function estimation model is built. Finally, we develop our iterative solutions for AO image restoration addressing the joint deconvolution issue. We conduct a number of experiments to evaluate the performances of our proposed algorithm. Experimental results show that our algorithm produces accurate AO image restoration results and outperforms the current state-of-the-art blind deconvolution methods.

Modeling abundance effects in distance sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Dawson, D.K.; Bates, S.

2004-01-01

Distance-sampling methods are commonly used in studies of animal populations to estimate population density. A common objective of such studies is to evaluate the relationship between abundance or density and covariates that describe animal habitat or other environmental influences. However, little attention has been focused on methods of modeling abundance covariate effects in conventional distance-sampling models. In this paper we propose a distance-sampling model that accommodates covariate effects on abundance. The model is based on specification of the distance-sampling likelihood at the level of the sample unit in terms of local abundance (for each sampling unit). This model is augmented with a Poisson regression model for local abundance that is parameterized in terms of available covariates. Maximum-likelihood estimation of detection and density parameters is based on the integrated likelihood, wherein local abundance is removed from the likelihood by integration. We provide an example using avian point-transect data of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) collected using a distance-sampling protocol and two measures of habitat structure (understory cover and basal area of overstory trees). The model yields a sensible description (positive effect of understory cover, negative effect on basal area) of the relationship between habitat and Ovenbird density that can be used to evaluate the effects of habitat management on Ovenbird populations.

Robust Multi-Frame Adaptive Optics Image Restoration Algorithm Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Poisson Statistics

PubMed Central

Li, Dongming; Sun, Changming; Yang, Jinhua; Liu, Huan; Peng, Jiaqi; Zhang, Lijuan

2017-01-01

An adaptive optics (AO) system provides real-time compensation for atmospheric turbulence. However, an AO image is usually of poor contrast because of the nature of the imaging process, meaning that the image contains information coming from both out-of-focus and in-focus planes of the object, which also brings about a loss in quality. In this paper, we present a robust multi-frame adaptive optics image restoration algorithm via maximum likelihood estimation. Our proposed algorithm uses a maximum likelihood method with image regularization as the basic principle, and constructs the joint log likelihood function for multi-frame AO images based on a Poisson distribution model. To begin with, a frame selection method based on image variance is applied to the observed multi-frame AO images to select images with better quality to improve the convergence of a blind deconvolution algorithm. Then, by combining the imaging conditions and the AO system properties, a point spread function estimation model is built. Finally, we develop our iterative solutions for AO image restoration addressing the joint deconvolution issue. We conduct a number of experiments to evaluate the performances of our proposed algorithm. Experimental results show that our algorithm produces accurate AO image restoration results and outperforms the current state-of-the-art blind deconvolution methods. PMID:28383503

Extending the BEAGLE library to a multi-FPGA platform.

PubMed

Jin, Zheming; Bakos, Jason D

2013-01-19

Maximum Likelihood (ML)-based phylogenetic inference using Felsenstein's pruning algorithm is a standard method for estimating the evolutionary relationships amongst a set of species based on DNA sequence data, and is used in popular applications such as RAxML, PHYLIP, GARLI, BEAST, and MrBayes. The Phylogenetic Likelihood Function (PLF) and its associated scaling and normalization steps comprise the computational kernel for these tools. These computations are data intensive but contain fine grain parallelism that can be exploited by coprocessor architectures such as FPGAs and GPUs. A general purpose API called BEAGLE has recently been developed that includes optimized implementations of Felsenstein's pruning algorithm for various data parallel architectures. In this paper, we extend the BEAGLE API to a multiple Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)-based platform called the Convey HC-1. The core calculation of our implementation, which includes both the phylogenetic likelihood function (PLF) and the tree likelihood calculation, has an arithmetic intensity of 130 floating-point operations per 64 bytes of I/O, or 2.03 ops/byte. Its performance can thus be calculated as a function of the host platform's peak memory bandwidth and the implementation's memory efficiency, as 2.03 × peak bandwidth × memory efficiency. Our FPGA-based platform has a peak bandwidth of 76.8 GB/s and our implementation achieves a memory efficiency of approximately 50%, which gives an average throughput of 78 Gflops. This represents a ~40X speedup when compared with BEAGLE's CPU implementation on a dual Xeon 5520 and 3X speedup versus BEAGLE's GPU implementation on a Tesla T10 GPU for very large data sizes. The power consumption is 92 W, yielding a power efficiency of 1.7 Gflops per Watt. The use of data parallel architectures to achieve high performance for likelihood-based phylogenetic inference requires high memory bandwidth and a design methodology that emphasizes high memory efficiency. To achieve this objective, we integrated 32 pipelined processing elements (PEs) across four FPGAs. For the design of each PE, we developed a specialized synthesis tool to generate a floating-point pipeline with resource and throughput constraints to match the target platform. We have found that using low-latency floating-point operators can significantly reduce FPGA area and still meet timing requirement on the target platform. We found that this design methodology can achieve performance that exceeds that of a GPU-based coprocessor.

Treatment Recommendations for Single-Unit Crowns: Findings from The National Dental Practice-Based Research Network

PubMed Central

McCracken, Michael S.; Louis, David R.; Litaker, Mark S.; Minyé, Helena M.; Mungia, Rahma; Gordan, Valeria V.; Marshall, Don G.; Gilbert, Gregg H.

2016-01-01

Background Objectives were to: (1) quantify practitioner variation in likelihood to recommend a crown; and (2) test whether certain dentist, practice, and clinical factors are significantly associated with this likelihood. Methods Dentists in the National Dental Practice-Based Research Network completed a questionnaire about indications for single-unit crowns. In four clinical scenarios, practitioners ranked their likelihood of recommending a single-unit crown. These responses were used to calculate a dentist-specific “Crown Factor” (CF; range 0–12). A higher score implies a higher likelihood to recommend a crown. Certain characteristics were tested for statistically significant associations with the CF. Results 1,777 of 2,132 eligible dentists responded (83%). Practitioners were most likely to recommend crowns for teeth that were fractured, cracked, endodontically-treated, or had a broken restoration. Practitioners overwhelmingly recommended crowns for posterior teeth treated endodontically (94%). Practice owners, Southwest practitioners, and practitioners with a balanced work load were more likely to recommend crowns, as were practitioners who use optical scanners for digital impressions. Conclusions There is substantial variation in the likelihood of recommending a crown. While consensus exists in some areas (posterior endodontic treatment), variation dominates in others (size of an existing restoration). Recommendations varied by type of practice, network region, practice busyness, patient insurance status, and use of optical scanners. Practical Implications Recommendations for crowns may be influenced by factors unrelated to tooth and patient variables. A concern for tooth fracture -- whether from endodontic treatment, fractured teeth, or large restorations -- prompted many clinicians to recommend crowns. PMID:27492046

Cosmic shear measurement with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Alex; Taylor, Andy

2017-06-01

We investigate the problem of noise bias in maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators for cosmic shear. We derive the leading and next-to-leading order biases and compute them in the context of galaxy ellipticity measurements, extending previous work on maximum likelihood inference for weak lensing. We show that a large part of the bias on these point estimators can be removed using information already contained in the likelihood when a galaxy model is specified, without the need for external calibration. We test these bias-corrected estimators on simulated galaxy images similar to those expected from planned space-based weak lensing surveys, with promising results. We find that the introduction of an intrinsic shape prior can help with mitigation of noise bias, such that the maximum a posteriori estimate can be made less biased than the maximum likelihood estimate. Second-order terms offer a check on the convergence of the estimators, but are largely subdominant. We show how biases propagate to shear estimates, demonstrating in our simple set-up that shear biases can be reduced by orders of magnitude and potentially to within the requirements of planned space-based surveys at mild signal-to-noise ratio. We find that second-order terms can exhibit significant cancellations at low signal-to-noise ratio when Gaussian noise is assumed, which has implications for inferring the performance of shear-measurement algorithms from simplified simulations. We discuss the viability of our point estimators as tools for lensing inference, arguing that they allow for the robust measurement of ellipticity and shear.

Bayesian logistic regression approaches to predict incorrect DRG assignment.

PubMed

Suleiman, Mani; Demirhan, Haydar; Boyd, Leanne; Girosi, Federico; Aksakalli, Vural

2018-05-07

Episodes of care involving similar diagnoses and treatments and requiring similar levels of resource utilisation are grouped to the same Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG). In jurisdictions which implement DRG based payment systems, DRGs are a major determinant of funding for inpatient care. Hence, service providers often dedicate auditing staff to the task of checking that episodes have been coded to the correct DRG. The use of statistical models to estimate an episode's probability of DRG error can significantly improve the efficiency of clinical coding audits. This study implements Bayesian logistic regression models with weakly informative prior distributions to estimate the likelihood that episodes require a DRG revision, comparing these models with each other and to classical maximum likelihood estimates. All Bayesian approaches had more stable model parameters than maximum likelihood. The best performing Bayesian model improved overall classification per- formance by 6% compared to maximum likelihood, with a 34% gain compared to random classification, respectively. We found that the original DRG, coder and the day of coding all have a significant effect on the likelihood of DRG error. Use of Bayesian approaches has improved model parameter stability and classification accuracy. This method has already lead to improved audit efficiency in an operational capacity.

Predicting Likelihood of Surgery Prior to First Visit in Patients with Back and Lower Extremity Symptoms: A simple mathematical model based on over 8000 patients.

PubMed

Boden, Lauren M; Boden, Stephanie A; Premkumar, Ajay; Gottschalk, Michael B; Boden, Scott D

2018-02-09

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. To create a data-driven triage system stratifying patients by likelihood of undergoing spinal surgery within one year of presentation. Low back pain (LBP) and radicular lower extremity (LE) symptoms are common musculoskeletal problems. There is currently no standard data-derived triage process based on information that can be obtained prior to the initial physician-patient encounter to direct patients to the optimal physician type. We analyzed patient-reported data from 8006 patients with a chief complaint of LBP and/or LE radicular symptoms who presented to surgeons at a large multidisciplinary spine center between September 1, 2005 and June 30, 2016. Univariate and multivariate analysis identified independent risk factors for undergoing spinal surgery within one year of initial visit. A model incorporating these risk factors was created using a random sample of 80% of the total patients in our cohort, and validated on the remaining 20%. The baseline one-year surgery rate within our cohort was 39% for all patients and 42% for patients with LE symptoms. Those identified as high likelihood by the center's existing triage process had a surgery rate of 45%. The new triage scoring system proposed in this study was able to identify a high likelihood group in which 58% underwent surgery, which is a 46% higher surgery rate than in non-triaged patients and a 29% improvement from our institution's existing triage system. The data-driven triage model and scoring system derived and validated in this study (Spine Surgery Likelihood model [SSL-11]), significantly improved existing processes in predicting the likelihood of undergoing spinal surgery within one year of initial presentation. This triage system will allow centers to more selectively screen for surgical candidates and more effectively direct patients to surgeons or non-operative spine specialists. 4.

Models and analysis for multivariate failure time data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Joanna Huang

The goal of this research is to develop and investigate models and analytic methods for multivariate failure time data. We compare models in terms of direct modeling of the margins, flexibility of dependency structure, local vs. global measures of association, and ease of implementation. In particular, we study copula models, and models produced by right neutral cumulative hazard functions and right neutral hazard functions. We examine the changes of association over time for families of bivariate distributions induced from these models by displaying their density contour plots, conditional density plots, correlation curves of Doksum et al, and local cross ratios of Oakes. We know that bivariate distributions with same margins might exhibit quite different dependency structures. In addition to modeling, we study estimation procedures. For copula models, we investigate three estimation procedures. the first procedure is full maximum likelihood. The second procedure is two-stage maximum likelihood. At stage 1, we estimate the parameters in the margins by maximizing the marginal likelihood. At stage 2, we estimate the dependency structure by fixing the margins at the estimated ones. The third procedure is two-stage partially parametric maximum likelihood. It is similar to the second procedure, but we estimate the margins by the Kaplan-Meier estimate. We derive asymptotic properties for these three estimation procedures and compare their efficiency by Monte-Carlo simulations and direct computations. For models produced by right neutral cumulative hazards and right neutral hazards, we derive the likelihood and investigate the properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Finally, we develop goodness of fit tests for the dependency structure in the copula models. We derive a test statistic and its asymptotic properties based on the test of homogeneity of Zelterman and Chen (1988), and a graphical diagnostic procedure based on the empirical Bayes approach. We study the performance of these two methods using actual and computer generated data.

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

Basal jawed vertebrate phylogeny inferred from multiple nuclear DNA-coded genes

PubMed Central

Kikugawa, Kanae; Katoh, Kazutaka; Kuraku, Shigehiro; Sakurai, Hiroshi; Ishida, Osamu; Iwabe, Naoyuki; Miyata, Takashi

2004-01-01

Background Phylogenetic analyses of jawed vertebrates based on mitochondrial sequences often result in confusing inferences which are obviously inconsistent with generally accepted trees. In particular, in a hypothesis by Rasmussen and Arnason based on mitochondrial trees, cartilaginous fishes have a terminal position in a paraphyletic cluster of bony fishes. No previous analysis based on nuclear DNA-coded genes could significantly reject the mitochondrial trees of jawed vertebrates. Results We have cloned and sequenced seven nuclear DNA-coded genes from 13 vertebrate species. These sequences, together with sequences available from databases including 13 jawed vertebrates from eight major groups (cartilaginous fishes, bichir, chondrosteans, gar, bowfin, teleost fishes, lungfishes and tetrapods) and an outgroup (a cyclostome and a lancelet), have been subjected to phylogenetic analyses based on the maximum likelihood method. Conclusion Cartilaginous fishes have been inferred to be basal to other jawed vertebrates, which is consistent with the generally accepted view. The minimum log-likelihood difference between the maximum likelihood tree and trees not supporting the basal position of cartilaginous fishes is 18.3 ± 13.1. The hypothesis by Rasmussen and Arnason has been significantly rejected with the minimum log-likelihood difference of 123 ± 23.3. Our tree has also shown that living holosteans, comprising bowfin and gar, form a monophyletic group which is the sister group to teleost fishes. This is consistent with a formerly prevalent view of vertebrate classification, although inconsistent with both of the current morphology-based and mitochondrial sequence-based trees. Furthermore, the bichir has been shown to be the basal ray-finned fish. Tetrapods and lungfish have formed a monophyletic cluster in the tree inferred from the concatenated alignment, being consistent with the currently prevalent view. It also remains possible that tetrapods are more closely related to ray-finned fishes than to lungfishes. PMID:15070407

Use of Bayesian Networks to Probabilistically Model and Improve the Likelihood of Validation of Microarray Findings by RT-PCR

PubMed Central

English, Sangeeta B.; Shih, Shou-Ching; Ramoni, Marco F.; Smith, Lois E.; Butte, Atul J.

2014-01-01

Though genome-wide technologies, such as microarrays, are widely used, data from these methods are considered noisy; there is still varied success in downstream biological validation. We report a method that increases the likelihood of successfully validating microarray findings using real time RT-PCR, including genes at low expression levels and with small differences. We use a Bayesian network to identify the most relevant sources of noise based on the successes and failures in validation for an initial set of selected genes, and then improve our subsequent selection of genes for validation based on eliminating these sources of noise. The network displays the significant sources of noise in an experiment, and scores the likelihood of validation for every gene. We show how the method can significantly increase validation success rates. In conclusion, in this study, we have successfully added a new automated step to determine the contributory sources of noise that determine successful or unsuccessful downstream biological validation. PMID:18790084

Statistical characteristics of the sequential detection of signals in correlated noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averochkin, V. A.; Baranov, P. E.

1985-10-01

A solution is given to the problem of determining the distribution of the duration of the sequential two-threshold Wald rule for the time-discrete detection of determinate and Gaussian correlated signals on a background of Gaussian correlated noise. Expressions are obtained for the joint probability densities of the likelihood ratio logarithms, and an analysis is made of the effect of correlation and SNR on the duration distribution and the detection efficiency. Comparison is made with Neumann-Pearson detection.

Resolution of Closely Spaced Optical Targets Using Maximum Likelihood Estimator and Maximum Entropy Method: A Comparison Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-03

Government Agencies. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the contractor and should not be interpreted as necessarily...resolving closely spaced j optical point targets are compared using Monte Carlo simulation ,esults for three different examples. It is found that the MEM is...although no direct compari- son was given. The objective of this report is to compare the capabilities of MLE and MEM in resolving two optical CSO’s

Efficient Exploration of the Space of Reconciled Gene Trees

PubMed Central

Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Rosikiewicz, Wojciech; Boussau, Bastien; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent

2013-01-01

Gene trees record the combination of gene-level events, such as duplication, transfer and loss (DTL), and species-level events, such as speciation and extinction. Gene tree–species tree reconciliation methods model these processes by drawing gene trees into the species tree using a series of gene and species-level events. The reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alone almost always involves choosing between statistically equivalent or weakly distinguishable relationships that could be much better resolved based on a putative species tree. To exploit this potential for accurate reconstruction of gene trees, the space of reconciled gene trees must be explored according to a joint model of sequence evolution and gene tree–species tree reconciliation. Here we present amalgamated likelihood estimation (ALE), a probabilistic approach to exhaustively explore all reconciled gene trees that can be amalgamated as a combination of clades observed in a sample of gene trees. We implement the ALE approach in the context of a reconciliation model (Szöllősi et al. 2013), which allows for the DTL of genes. We use ALE to efficiently approximate the sum of the joint likelihood over amalgamations and to find the reconciled gene tree that maximizes the joint likelihood among all such trees. We demonstrate using simulations that gene trees reconstructed using the joint likelihood are substantially more accurate than those reconstructed using sequence alone. Using realistic gene tree topologies, branch lengths, and alignment sizes, we demonstrate that ALE produces more accurate gene trees even if the model of sequence evolution is greatly simplified. Finally, examining 1099 gene families from 36 cyanobacterial genomes we find that joint likelihood-based inference results in a striking reduction in apparent phylogenetic discord, with respectively. 24%, 59%, and 46% reductions in the mean numbers of duplications, transfers, and losses per gene family. The open source implementation of ALE is available from https://github.com/ssolo/ALE.git. [amalgamation; gene tree reconciliation; gene tree reconstruction; lateral gene transfer; phylogeny.] PMID:23925510

Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors.

PubMed

Morrison, Geoffrey Stewart; Poh, Norman

2018-05-01

When strength of forensic evidence is quantified using sample data and statistical models, a concern may be raised as to whether the output of a model overestimates the strength of evidence. This is particularly the case when the amount of sample data is small, and hence sampling variability is high. This concern is related to concern about precision. This paper describes, explores, and tests three procedures which shrink the value of the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor toward the neutral value of one. The procedures are: (1) a Bayesian procedure with uninformative priors, (2) use of empirical lower and upper bounds (ELUB), and (3) a novel form of regularized logistic regression. As a benchmark, they are compared with linear discriminant analysis, and in some instances with non-regularized logistic regression. The behaviours of the procedures are explored using Monte Carlo simulated data, and tested on real data from comparisons of voice recordings, face images, and glass fragments. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensing multiple ligands with single receptor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vijay; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-03-01

Cells use surface receptors to measure concentrations of external ligand molecules. Limits on the accuracy of such sensing are well-known for the scenario where concentration of one molecular species is being determined by one receptor [Endres]. However, in more realistic scenarios, a cognate (high-affinity) ligand competes with many non-cognate (low-affinity) ligands for binding to the receptor. We analyze effects of this competition on the accuracy of sensing. We show that maximum-likelihood statistical inference allows determination of concentrations of multiple ligands, cognate and non-cognate, by the same receptor concurrently. While it is unclear if traditional biochemical circuitry downstream of the receptor can implement such inference exactly, we show that an approximate inference can be performed by coupling the receptor to a kinetic proofreading cascade. We characterize the accuracy of such kinetic proofreading sensing in comparison to the exact maximum-likelihood approach. We acknowledge the support from the James S. McDonnell Foundation and the Human Frontier Science Program.

On the validity of cosmological Fisher matrix forecasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolz, Laura; Kilbinger, Martin; Weller, Jochen

2012-09-01

We present a comparison of Fisher matrix forecasts for cosmological probes with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) posterior likelihood estimation methods. We analyse the performance of future Dark Energy Task Force (DETF) stage-III and stage-IV dark-energy surveys using supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations and weak lensing as probes. We concentrate in particular on the dark-energy equation of state parameters w{sub 0} and w{sub a}. For purely geometrical probes, and especially when marginalising over w{sub a}, we find considerable disagreement between the two methods, since in this case the Fisher matrix can not reproduce the highly non-elliptical shape of the likelihood function.more » More quantitatively, the Fisher method underestimates the marginalized errors for purely geometrical probes between 30%-70%. For cases including structure formation such as weak lensing, we find that the posterior probability contours from the Fisher matrix estimation are in good agreement with the MCMC contours and the forecasted errors only changing on the 5% level. We then explore non-linear transformations resulting in physically-motivated parameters and investigate whether these parameterisations exhibit a Gaussian behaviour. We conclude that for the purely geometrical probes and, more generally, in cases where it is not known whether the likelihood is close to Gaussian, the Fisher matrix is not the appropriate tool to produce reliable forecasts.« less

Comparison of British national newspaper coverage of homicide committed by perpetrators with and without mental illness.

PubMed

Kalucy, Megan; Rodway, Cathryn; Finn, Judith; Pearson, Anna; Flynn, Sandra; Swinson, Nicola; Roscoe, Alison; Da Cruz, Damian; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny

2011-07-01

Adverse newspaper reporting of mental illness and in particular, violence committed by a mentally ill person, is thought to contribute to stigma. However, violent events are also considered highly newsworthy by journalists. The aim of this study was to compare the likelihood of newspaper reporting for convicted perpetrators of homicide with and without a history of contact with mental health services. A 12 month (April 2000-March 2001) cohort of 577 homicide perpetrators with and without a history of contact with mental health services in England and Wales was examined. These cases were identified by the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Homicide by People with Mental Illness. By examining 12 national newspapers, we compared the likelihood of reporting homicide perpetrators with and without mental illness. Under half (228 cases, 40%) of the homicide perpetrators were reported in at least one of the study newspapers. Under a fifth (94 cases, 16%) of perpetrators had a history of contact with mental health services and such previous contact did not increase the likelihood of newspaper reporting (odds ratio 1.0 (0.6-1.6)). Previous contact with mental health services did not influence the newsworthiness of a homicide perpetrator. The stigmatizing effect of reporting homicide by perpetrators with mental illness may relate more to the quality of reporting rather than selective over-reporting.

Signal detection theory and vestibular perception: III. Estimating unbiased fit parameters for psychometric functions.

PubMed

Chaudhuri, Shomesh E; Merfeld, Daniel M

2013-03-01

Psychophysics generally relies on estimating a subject's ability to perform a specific task as a function of an observed stimulus. For threshold studies, the fitted functions are called psychometric functions. While fitting psychometric functions to data acquired using adaptive sampling procedures (e.g., "staircase" procedures), investigators have encountered a bias in the spread ("slope" or "threshold") parameter that has been attributed to the serial dependency of the adaptive data. Using simulations, we confirm this bias for cumulative Gaussian parametric maximum likelihood fits on data collected via adaptive sampling procedures, and then present a bias-reduced maximum likelihood fit that substantially reduces the bias without reducing the precision of the spread parameter estimate and without reducing the accuracy or precision of the other fit parameters. As a separate topic, we explain how to implement this bias reduction technique using generalized linear model fits as well as other numeric maximum likelihood techniques such as the Nelder-Mead simplex. We then provide a comparison of the iterative bootstrap and observed information matrix techniques for estimating parameter fit variance from adaptive sampling procedure data sets. The iterative bootstrap technique is shown to be slightly more accurate; however, the observed information technique executes in a small fraction (0.005 %) of the time required by the iterative bootstrap technique, which is an advantage when a real-time estimate of parameter fit variance is required.

Veterinary software application for comparison of thermograms for pathology evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pant, Gita; Umbaugh, Scott E.; Dahal, Rohini; Lama, Norsang; Marino, Dominic J.; Sackman, Joseph

2017-09-01

The bilateral symmetry property in mammals allows for the detection of pathology by comparison of opposing sides. For any pathological disorder, thermal patterns differ compared to the normal body part. A software application for veterinary clinics has been under development to input two thermograms of body parts on both sides, one normal and the other unknown, and the application compares them based on extracted features and appropriate similarity and difference measures and outputs the likelihood of pathology. Here thermographic image data from 19° C to 40° C was linearly remapped to create images with 256 gray level values. Features were extracted from these images, including histogram, texture and spectral features. The comparison metrics used are the vector inner product, Tanimoto, Euclidean, city block, Minkowski and maximum value metric. Previous research with the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) pathology in dogs suggested any thermogram variation below a threshold of 40% of Euclidean distance is normal and above 40% is abnormal. Here the 40% threshold was applied to a new ACL image set and achieved a sensitivity of 75%, an improvement from the 55% sensitivity of the previous work. With the new data set it was determined that using a threshold of 20% provided a much improved 92% sensitivity metric. However, this will require further research to determine the corresponding specificity success rate. Additionally, it was found that the anterior view provided better results than the lateral view. It was also determined that better results were obtained with all three feature sets than with just the histogram and texture sets. Further experiments are ongoing with larger image datasets, and pathologies, new features and comparison metric evaluation for determination of more accurate threshold values to separate normal and abnormal images.

Obstetrician gender and the likelihood of performing a maternal request for a cesarean delivery.

PubMed

Liu, Tsai-Ching; Lin, Herng-Ching; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Lee, Hsin-Chien

2008-01-01

To examine the relationship between obstetrician gender and the likelihood of maternal request for cesarean section (CS) within different healthcare institutions (medical centers, regional hospitals, district hospitals, and obstetric and gynecology clinics). Five years of population-based data from Taiwan covering 857,920 singleton deliveries without a clinical indication for a CS were subjected to a multiple logistic regression to examine the association between obstetrician gender and the likelihood of maternal request for a CS. After adjusting for physician and institutional characteristics, it was found that male obstetricians were more likely to perform a requested CS than female obstetricians in district hospitals (OR=1.53) and clinics (OR=2.26), while obstetrician gender had no discernible associations with the likelihood of a CS upon maternal request in medical centers and regional hospitals. While obstetrician gender had the greatest association with delivery mode decisions in the lowest obstetric care units, those associations were diluted in higher-level healthcare institutions.

Top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes - Validation of ERBE scanner inversion algorithm using Nimbus-7 ERB data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suttles, John T.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Vemury, Sastri

1992-01-01

The ERBE algorithm is applied to the Nimbus-7 earth radiation budget (ERB) scanner data for June 1979 to analyze the performance of an inversion method in deriving top-of-atmosphere albedos and longwave radiative fluxes. The performance is assessed by comparing ERBE algorithm results with appropriate results derived using the sorting-by-angular-bins (SAB) method, the ERB MATRIX algorithm, and the 'new-cloud ERB' (NCLE) algorithm. Comparisons are made for top-of-atmosphere albedos, longwave fluxes, viewing zenith-angle dependence of derived albedos and longwave fluxes, and cloud fractional coverage. Using the SAB method as a reference, the rms accuracy of monthly average ERBE-derived results are estimated to be 0.0165 (5.6 W/sq m) for albedos (shortwave fluxes) and 3.0 W/sq m for longwave fluxes. The ERBE-derived results were found to depend systematically on the viewing zenith angle, varying from near nadir to near the limb by about 10 percent for albedos and by 6-7 percent for longwave fluxes. Analyses indicated that the ERBE angular models are the most likely source of the systematic angular dependences. Comparison of the ERBE-derived cloud fractions, based on a maximum-likelihood estimation method, with results from the NCLE showed agreement within about 10 percent.

National reimbursement listing determinants of new cancer drugs: a retrospective analysis of 58 cancer treatment appraisals in 2007-2016 in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Eun-Sook; Kim, Jung-Ae; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-08-01

Since the positive-list system was introduced, concerns have been raised over restricting access to new cancer drugs in Korea. Policy changes in the decision-making process, such as risk-sharing agreement and the waiver of pharmacoeconomic data submission, were implemented to improve access to oncology medicines, and other factors are also involved in the reimbursement for cancer drugs. The aim of this study is to investigate the reimbursement listing determinants of new cancer drugs in Korea. All cancer treatment appraisals of Health Insurance Review and Assessment during 2007-2016 were analyzed based on 13 independent variables (comparative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, drug-price comparison, oncology-specific policy, and innovation such as new mode of action). Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were conducted. Of 58 analyzed submissions, 40% were listed in the national reimbursement formulary. In univariate analysis, four variables were related to listing: comparative effectiveness, drug-price comparison, new mode of action, and risk-sharing agreement. In multivariate logistic analysis, three variables significantly increased the likelihood of listing: clinical improvement, below alternative's price, and risk-sharing arrangement. Cancer drug's listing increased from 17% to 47% after risk-sharing agreement implementation. Clinical improvement, cost-effectiveness, and RSA application are critical to successful national reimbursement listing.

Maximum likelihood estimation of signal detection model parameters for the assessment of two-stage diagnostic strategies.

PubMed

Lirio, R B; Dondériz, I C; Pérez Abalo, M C

1992-08-01

The methodology of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves based on the signal detection model is extended to evaluate the accuracy of two-stage diagnostic strategies. A computer program is developed for the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters that characterize the sensitivity and specificity of two-stage classifiers according to this extended methodology. Its use is briefly illustrated with data collected in a two-stage screening for auditory defects.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for forested habitats in northern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe

2012-01-01

We used a risk matrix to assess risk from climate change for multiple forest species by discussing an example that depicts a range of risk for three tree species of northern Wisconsin. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or effects of that event. In the context of species habitats, likelihood is related to...

Effects of Two Versions of an Empathy-Based Rape Prevention Program on Fraternity Men's Survivor Empathy, Attitudes, and Behavioral Intent to Commit Rape or Sexual Assault

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foubert, John D.; Newberry, Johnathan T.

2006-01-01

Fraternity men (N = 261) at a small to midsized public university saw one of two versions of a rape prevention program or were in a control group. Program participants reported significant increases in empathy toward rape survivors and significant declines in rape myth acceptance, likelihood of raping, and likelihood of committing sexual assault.…

THESEUS: maximum likelihood superpositioning and analysis of macromolecular structures

PubMed Central

Theobald, Douglas L.; Wuttke, Deborah S.

2008-01-01

Summary THESEUS is a command line program for performing maximum likelihood (ML) superpositions and analysis of macromolecular structures. While conventional superpositioning methods use ordinary least-squares (LS) as the optimization criterion, ML superpositions provide substantially improved accuracy by down-weighting variable structural regions and by correcting for correlations among atoms. ML superpositioning is robust and insensitive to the specific atoms included in the analysis, and thus it does not require subjective pruning of selected variable atomic coordinates. Output includes both likelihood-based and frequentist statistics for accurate evaluation of the adequacy of a superposition and for reliable analysis of structural similarities and differences. THESEUS performs principal components analysis for analyzing the complex correlations found among atoms within a structural ensemble. PMID:16777907

Attitude determination and calibration using a recursive maximum likelihood-based adaptive Kalman filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, D. A.; Fermelia, A.; Lee, G. K. F.

1990-01-01

An adaptive Kalman filter design that utilizes recursive maximum likelihood parameter identification is discussed. At the center of this design is the Kalman filter itself, which has the responsibility for attitude determination. At the same time, the identification algorithm is continually identifying the system parameters. The approach is applicable to nonlinear, as well as linear systems. This adaptive Kalman filter design has much potential for real time implementation, especially considering the fast clock speeds, cache memory and internal RAM available today. The recursive maximum likelihood algorithm is discussed in detail, with special attention directed towards its unique matrix formulation. The procedure for using the algorithm is described along with comments on how this algorithm interacts with the Kalman filter.

Gaussian copula as a likelihood function for environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wani, O.; Espadas, G.; Cecinati, F.; Rieckermann, J.

2017-12-01

Parameter estimation of environmental models always comes with uncertainty. To formally quantify this parametric uncertainty, a likelihood function needs to be formulated, which is defined as the probability of observations given fixed values of the parameter set. A likelihood function allows us to infer parameter values from observations using Bayes' theorem. The challenge is to formulate a likelihood function that reliably describes the error generating processes which lead to the observed monitoring data, such as rainfall and runoff. If the likelihood function is not representative of the error statistics, the parameter inference will give biased parameter values. Several uncertainty estimation methods that are currently being used employ Gaussian processes as a likelihood function, because of their favourable analytical properties. Box-Cox transformation is suggested to deal with non-symmetric and heteroscedastic errors e.g. for flow data which are typically more uncertain in high flows than in periods with low flows. Problem with transformations is that the results are conditional on hyper-parameters, for which it is difficult to formulate the analyst's belief a priori. In an attempt to address this problem, in this research work we suggest learning the nature of the error distribution from the errors made by the model in the "past" forecasts. We use a Gaussian copula to generate semiparametric error distributions . 1) We show that this copula can be then used as a likelihood function to infer parameters, breaking away from the practice of using multivariate normal distributions. Based on the results from a didactical example of predicting rainfall runoff, 2) we demonstrate that the copula captures the predictive uncertainty of the model. 3) Finally, we find that the properties of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of errors are captured well by the copula, eliminating the need to use transforms. In summary, our findings suggest that copulas are an interesting departure from the usage of fully parametric distributions as likelihood functions - and they could help us to better capture the statistical properties of errors and make more reliable predictions.

Likelihood ratio-based differentiation of nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma in patients with sonographically evident diffuse hashimoto thyroiditis: preliminary study.

PubMed

Wang, Liang; Xia, Yu; Jiang, Yu-Xin; Dai, Qing; Li, Xiao-Yi

2012-11-01

To assess the efficacy of sonography for discriminating nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis from papillary thyroid carcinoma in patients with sonographically evident diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis. This study included 20 patients with 24 surgically confirmed Hashimoto thyroiditis nodules and 40 patients with 40 papillary thyroid carcinoma nodules; all had sonographically evident diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis. A retrospective review of the sonograms was performed, and significant benign and malignant sonographic features were selected by univariate and multivariate analyses. The combined likelihood ratio was calculated as the product of each feature's likelihood ratio for papillary thyroid carcinoma. We compared the abilities of the original sonographic features and combined likelihood ratios in diagnosing nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma by their sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index. The diagnostic capabilities of the sonographic features varied greatly, with Youden indices ranging from 0.175 to 0.700. Compared with single features, combinations of features were unable to improve the Youden indices effectively because the sensitivity and specificity usually changed in opposite directions. For combined likelihood ratios, however, the sensitivity improved greatly without an obvious reduction in specificity, which resulted in the maximum Youden index (0.825). With a combined likelihood ratio greater than 7.00 as the diagnostic criterion for papillary thyroid carcinoma, sensitivity reached 82.5%, whereas specificity remained at 100.0%. With a combined likelihood ratio less than 1.00 for nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis, sensitivity and specificity were 90.0% and 92.5%, respectively. Several sonographic features of nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma in a background of diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis were significantly different. The combined likelihood ratio may be superior to original sonographic features for discrimination of nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis from papillary thyroid carcinoma; therefore, it is a promising risk index for thyroid nodules and warrants further investigation.

Silence That Can Be Dangerous: A Vignette Study to Assess Healthcare Professionals’ Likelihood of Speaking up about Safety Concerns

PubMed Central

Schwappach, David L. B.; Gehring, Katrin

2014-01-01

Purpose To investigate the likelihood of speaking up about patient safety in oncology and to clarify the effect of clinical and situational context factors on the likelihood of voicing concerns. Patients and Methods 1013 nurses and doctors in oncology rated four clinical vignettes describing coworkers’ errors and rule violations in a self-administered factorial survey (65% response rate). Multiple regression analysis was used to model the likelihood of speaking up as outcome of vignette attributes, responder’s evaluations of the situation and personal characteristics. Results Respondents reported a high likelihood of speaking up about patient safety but the variation between and within types of errors and rule violations was substantial. Staff without managerial function provided significantly higher levels of decision difficulty and discomfort to speak up. Based on the information presented in the vignettes, 74%−96% would speak up towards a supervisor failing to check a prescription, 45%−81% would point a coworker to a missed hand disinfection, 82%−94% would speak up towards nurses who violate a safety rule in medication preparation, and 59%−92% would question a doctor violating a safety rule in lumbar puncture. Several vignette attributes predicted the likelihood of speaking up. Perceived potential harm, anticipated discomfort, and decision difficulty were significant predictors of the likelihood of speaking up. Conclusions Clinicians’ willingness to speak up about patient safety is considerably affected by contextual factors. Physicians and nurses without managerial function report substantial discomfort with speaking up. Oncology departments should provide staff with clear guidance and trainings on when and how to voice safety concerns. PMID:25116338

Nature or nurture: the effect of undergraduate rural clinical rotations on pre-existent rural career choice likelihood as measured by the SOMERS Index.

PubMed

Somers, George T; Spencer, Ryan J

2012-04-01

Do undergraduate rural clinical rotations increase the likelihood of medical students to choose a rural career once pre-existent likelihood is accounted for? A prospective, controlled quasi-experiment using self-paired scores on the SOMERS Index of rural career choice likelihood, before and after 3 years of clinical rotations in either mainly rural or mainly urban locations. Monash University medical school, Australia. Fifty-eight undergraduate-entry medical students (35% of the 2002 entry class). The SOMERS Index of rural career choice likelihood and its component indicators. There was an overall decline in SOMERS Index score (22%) and in each of its components (12-41%). Graduating students who attended rural rotations were more likely to choose a rural career on graduation (difference in SOMERS score: 24.1 (95% CI, 15.0-33.3) P<0.0001); however, at entry, students choosing rural rotations had an even greater SOMERS score (difference: 27.1 (95% CI, 18.2-36.1) P<0.0001). Self-paired pre-post reductions in likelihood were not affected by attending mainly rural or urban rotations, nor were there differences based on rural background alone or sex. While rural rotations are an important component of undergraduate medical training, it is the nature of the students choosing to study in rural locations rather than experiences during the course that is the greater influence on rural career choice. In order to improve the rural medical workforce crisis, medical schools should attract more students with pre-existent likelihood to choose a rural career. The SOMERS Index was found to be a useful tool for this quantitative analysis. © 2012 The Authors. Australian Journal of Rural Health © 2012 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of “working distributions” to facilitate—or shorten—the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a “working” distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different “working” distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

An unsupervised video foreground co-localization and segmentation process by incorporating motion cues and frame features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Zhang, Qian; Zheng, Chi; Qiu, Guoping

2018-04-01

Video foreground segmentation is one of the key problems in video processing. In this paper, we proposed a novel and fully unsupervised approach for foreground object co-localization and segmentation of unconstrained videos. We firstly compute both the actual edges and motion boundaries of the video frames, and then align them by their HOG feature maps. Then, by filling the occlusions generated by the aligned edges, we obtained more precise masks about the foreground object. Such motion-based masks could be derived as the motion-based likelihood. Moreover, the color-base likelihood is adopted for the segmentation process. Experimental Results show that our approach outperforms most of the State-of-the-art algorithms.

Factors Associated With the Likelihood of Hospitalization Following Emergency Department Visits for Behavioral Health Conditions.

PubMed

Hamilton, Jane E; Desai, Pratikkumar V; Hoot, Nathan R; Gearing, Robin E; Jeong, Shin; Meyer, Thomas D; Soares, Jair C; Begley, Charles E

2016-11-01

Behavioral health-related emergency department (ED) visits have been linked with ED overcrowding, an increased demand on limited resources, and a longer length of stay (LOS) due in part to patients being admitted to the hospital but waiting for an inpatient bed. This study examines factors associated with the likelihood of hospital admission for ED patients with behavioral health conditions at 16 hospital-based EDs in a large urban area in the southern United States. Using Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Service Use for guidance, the study examined the relationship between predisposing (characteristics of the individual, i.e., age, sex, race/ethnicity), enabling (system or structural factors affecting healthcare access), and need (clinical) factors and the likelihood of hospitalization following ED visits for behavioral health conditions (n = 28,716 ED visits). In the adjusted analysis, a logistic fixed-effects model with blockwise entry was used to estimate the relative importance of predisposing, enabling, and need variables added separately as blocks while controlling for variation in unobserved hospital-specific practices across hospitals and time in years. Significant predisposing factors associated with an increased likelihood of hospitalization following an ED visit included increasing age, while African American race was associated with a lower likelihood of hospitalization. Among enabling factors, arrival by emergency transport and a longer ED LOS were associated with a greater likelihood of hospitalization while being uninsured and the availability of community-based behavioral health services within 5 miles of the ED were associated with lower odds. Among need factors, having a discharge diagnosis of schizophrenia/psychotic spectrum disorder, an affective disorder, a personality disorder, dementia, or an impulse control disorder as well as secondary diagnoses of suicidal ideation and/or suicidal behavior increased the likelihood of hospitalization following an ED visit. The block of enabling factors was the strongest predictor of hospitalization following an ED visit compared to predisposing and need factors. Our findings also provide evidence of disparities in hospitalization of the uninsured and racial and ethnic minority patients with ED visits for behavioral health conditions. Thus, improved access to community-based behavioral health services and an increased capacity for inpatient psychiatric hospitals for treating indigent patients may be needed to improve the efficiency of ED services in our region for patients with behavioral health conditions. Among need factors, a discharge diagnosis of schizophrenia/psychotic spectrum disorder, an affective disorder, a personality disorder, an impulse control disorder, or dementia as well as secondary diagnoses of suicidal ideation and/or suicidal behavior increased the likelihood of hospitalization following an ED visit, also suggesting an opportunity for improving the efficiency of ED care through the provision of psychiatric services to stabilize and treat patients with serious mental illness. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

[Effects of attitude formation, persuasive message, and source expertise on attitude change: an examination based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model and the Attitude Formation Theory].

PubMed

Nakamura, M; Saito, K; Wakabayashi, M

1990-04-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate how attitude change is generated by the recipient's degree of attitude formation, evaluative-emotional elements contained in the persuasive messages, and source expertise as a peripheral cue in the persuasion context. Hypotheses based on the Attitude Formation Theory of Mizuhara (1982) and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Petty and Cacioppo (1981, 1986) were examined. Eighty undergraduate students served as subjects in the experiment, the first stage of which involving manipulating the degree of attitude formation with respect to nuclear power development. Then, the experimenter presented persuasive messages with varying combinations of evaluative-emotional elements from a source with either high or low expertise on the subject. Results revealed a significant interaction effect on attitude change among attitude formation, persuasive message and the expertise of the message source. That is, high attitude formation subjects resisted evaluative-emotional persuasion from the high expertise source while low attitude formation subjects changed their attitude when exposed to the same persuasive message from a low expertise source. Results exceeded initial predictions based on the Attitude Formation Theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

Likelihood Ratios for Glaucoma Diagnosis Using Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography

PubMed Central

Lisboa, Renato; Mansouri, Kaweh; Zangwill, Linda M.; Weinreb, Robert N.; Medeiros, Felipe A.

2014-01-01

Purpose To present a methodology for calculating likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis for continuous retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness measurements from spectral domain optical coherence tomography (spectral-domain OCT). Design Observational cohort study. Methods 262 eyes of 187 patients with glaucoma and 190 eyes of 100 control subjects were included in the study. Subjects were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations Glaucoma Study. Eyes with preperimetric and perimetric glaucomatous damage were included in the glaucoma group. The control group was composed of healthy eyes with normal visual fields from subjects recruited from the general population. All eyes underwent RNFL imaging with Spectralis spectral-domain OCT. Likelihood ratios for glaucoma diagnosis were estimated for specific global RNFL thickness measurements using a methodology based on estimating the tangents to the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Likelihood ratios could be determined for continuous values of average RNFL thickness. Average RNFL thickness values lower than 86μm were associated with positive LRs, i.e., LRs greater than 1; whereas RNFL thickness values higher than 86μm were associated with negative LRs, i.e., LRs smaller than 1. A modified Fagan nomogram was provided to assist calculation of post-test probability of disease from the calculated likelihood ratios and pretest probability of disease. Conclusion The methodology allowed calculation of likelihood ratios for specific RNFL thickness values. By avoiding arbitrary categorization of test results, it potentially allows for an improved integration of test results into diagnostic clinical decision-making. PMID:23972303

Physician Bayesian updating from personal beliefs about the base rate and likelihood ratio.

PubMed

Rottman, Benjamin Margolin

2017-02-01

Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis. On the one hand, the posttest judgments were strongly related to the physicians' beliefs about both the prior probability as well as the likelihood ratio, and the priors were used considerably more strongly than in previous research. On the other hand, both the prior and the likelihoods were still not used quite as much as they should have been, and there was evidence of other nonnormative aspects to the updating, such as updating independent of the likelihood beliefs. By focusing on how physicians use their own prior beliefs for Bayesian updating, this study provides insight into how well experts perform probabilistic inference in settings in which they rely upon their own prior beliefs rather than experimenter-provided cues. It suggests that there is reason to be optimistic about experts' abilities, but that there is still considerable need for improvement.

A tree island approach to inferring phylogeny in the ant subfamily Formicinae, with especial reference to the evolution of weaving.

PubMed

Johnson, Rebecca N; Agapow, Paul-Michael; Crozier, Ross H

2003-11-01

The ant subfamily Formicinae is a large assemblage (2458 species (J. Nat. Hist. 29 (1995) 1037), including species that weave leaf nests together with larval silk and in which the metapleural gland-the ancestrally defining ant character-has been secondarily lost. We used sequences from two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome b and cytochrome oxidase 2) from 18 formicine and 4 outgroup taxa to derive a robust phylogeny, employing a search for tree islands using 10000 randomly constructed trees as starting points and deriving a maximum likelihood consensus tree from the ML tree and those not significantly different from it. Non-parametric bootstrapping showed that the ML consensus tree fit the data significantly better than three scenarios based on morphology, with that of Bolton (Identification Guide to the Ant Genera of the World, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) being the best among these alternative trees. Trait mapping showed that weaving had arisen at least four times and possibly been lost once. A maximum likelihood analysis showed that loss of the metapleural gland is significantly associated with the weaver life-pattern. The graph of the frequencies with which trees were discovered versus their likelihood indicates that trees with high likelihoods have much larger basins of attraction than those with lower likelihoods. While this result indicates that single searches are more likely to find high- than low-likelihood tree islands, it also indicates that searching only for the single best tree may lose important information.

Model criticism based on likelihood-free inference, with an application to protein network evolution.

PubMed

Ratmann, Oliver; Andrieu, Christophe; Wiuf, Carsten; Richardson, Sylvia

2009-06-30

Mathematical models are an important tool to explain and comprehend complex phenomena, and unparalleled computational advances enable us to easily explore them without any or little understanding of their global properties. In fact, the likelihood of the data under complex stochastic models is often analytically or numerically intractable in many areas of sciences. This makes it even more important to simultaneously investigate the adequacy of these models-in absolute terms, against the data, rather than relative to the performance of other models-but no such procedure has been formally discussed when the likelihood is intractable. We provide a statistical interpretation to current developments in likelihood-free Bayesian inference that explicitly accounts for discrepancies between the model and the data, termed Approximate Bayesian Computation under model uncertainty (ABCmicro). We augment the likelihood of the data with unknown error terms that correspond to freely chosen checking functions, and provide Monte Carlo strategies for sampling from the associated joint posterior distribution without the need of evaluating the likelihood. We discuss the benefit of incorporating model diagnostics within an ABC framework, and demonstrate how this method diagnoses model mismatch and guides model refinement by contrasting three qualitative models of protein network evolution to the protein interaction datasets of Helicobacter pylori and Treponema pallidum. Our results make a number of model deficiencies explicit, and suggest that the T. pallidum network topology is inconsistent with evolution dominated by link turnover or lateral gene transfer alone.

Discerning the clinical relevance of biomarkers in early stage breast cancer.

PubMed

Ballinger, Tarah J; Kassem, Nawal; Shen, Fei; Jiang, Guanglong; Smith, Mary Lou; Railey, Elda; Howell, John; White, Carol B; Schneider, Bryan P

2017-07-01

Prior data suggest that breast cancer patients accept significant toxicity for small benefit. It is unclear whether personalized estimations of risk or benefit likelihood that could be provided by biomarkers alter treatment decisions in the curative setting. A choice-based conjoint (CBC) survey was conducted in 417 HER2-negative breast cancer patients who received chemotherapy in the curative setting. The survey presented pairs of treatment choices derived from common taxane- and anthracycline-based regimens, varying in degree of benefit by risk of recurrence and in toxicity profile, including peripheral neuropathy (PN) and congestive heart failure (CHF). Hypothetical biomarkers shifting benefit and toxicity risk were modeled to determine whether this knowledge alters choice. Previously identified biomarkers were evaluated using this model. Based on CBC analysis, a non-anthracycline regimen was the most preferred. Patients with prior PN had a similar preference for a taxane regimen as those who were PN naïve, but more dramatically shifted preference away from taxanes when PN was described as severe/irreversible. When modeled after hypothetical biomarkers, as the likelihood of PN increased, the preference for taxane-containing regimens decreased; similarly, as the likelihood of CHF increased, the preference for anthracycline regimens decreased. When evaluating validated biomarkers for PN and CHF, this knowledge did alter regimen preference. Patients faced with multi-faceted decisions consider personal experience and perceived risk of recurrent disease. Biomarkers providing information on likelihood of toxicity risk do influence treatment choices, and patients may accept reduced benefit when faced with higher risk of toxicity in the curative setting.

Maximum likelihood positioning algorithm for high-resolution PET scanners

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gross-Weege, Nicolas, E-mail: nicolas.gross-weege@pmi.rwth-aachen.de, E-mail: schulz@pmi.rwth-aachen.de; Schug, David; Hallen, Patrick

2016-06-15

Purpose: In high-resolution positron emission tomography (PET), lightsharing elements are incorporated into typical detector stacks to read out scintillator arrays in which one scintillator element (crystal) is smaller than the size of the readout channel. In order to identify the hit crystal by means of the measured light distribution, a positioning algorithm is required. One commonly applied positioning algorithm uses the center of gravity (COG) of the measured light distribution. The COG algorithm is limited in spatial resolution by noise and intercrystal Compton scatter. The purpose of this work is to develop a positioning algorithm which overcomes this limitation. Methods:more » The authors present a maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm which compares a set of expected light distributions given by probability density functions (PDFs) with the measured light distribution. Instead of modeling the PDFs by using an analytical model, the PDFs of the proposed ML algorithm are generated assuming a single-gamma-interaction model from measured data. The algorithm was evaluated with a hot-rod phantom measurement acquired with the preclinical HYPERION II {sup D} PET scanner. In order to assess the performance with respect to sensitivity, energy resolution, and image quality, the ML algorithm was compared to a COG algorithm which calculates the COG from a restricted set of channels. The authors studied the energy resolution of the ML and the COG algorithm regarding incomplete light distributions (missing channel information caused by detector dead time). Furthermore, the authors investigated the effects of using a filter based on the likelihood values on sensitivity, energy resolution, and image quality. Results: A sensitivity gain of up to 19% was demonstrated in comparison to the COG algorithm for the selected operation parameters. Energy resolution and image quality were on a similar level for both algorithms. Additionally, the authors demonstrated that the performance of the ML algorithm is less prone to missing channel information. A likelihood filter visually improved the image quality, i.e., the peak-to-valley increased up to a factor of 3 for 2-mm-diameter phantom rods by rejecting 87% of the coincidences. A relative improvement of the energy resolution of up to 12.8% was also measured rejecting 91% of the coincidences. Conclusions: The developed ML algorithm increases the sensitivity by correctly handling missing channel information without influencing energy resolution or image quality. Furthermore, the authors showed that energy resolution and image quality can be improved substantially by rejecting events that do not comply well with the single-gamma-interaction model, such as Compton-scattered events.« less

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE PAGES

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun; ...

2017-11-08

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

Does a research article's country of origin affect perception of its quality and relevance? A national trial of US public health researchers.

PubMed

Harris, M; Macinko, J; Jimenez, G; Mahfoud, M; Anderson, C

2015-12-30

The source of research may influence one's interpretation of it in either negative or positive ways, however, there are no robust experiments to determine how source impacts on one's judgment of the research article. We determine the impact of source on respondents' assessment of the quality and relevance of selected research abstracts. Web-based survey design using four healthcare research abstracts previously published and included in Cochrane Reviews. All Council on the Education of Public Health-accredited Schools and Programmes of Public Health in the USA. 899 core faculty members (full, associate and assistant professors) Each of the four abstracts appeared with a high-income source half of the time, and low-income source half of the time. Participants each reviewed the same four abstracts, but were randomly allocated to receive two abstracts with high-income source, and two abstracts with low-income source, allowing for within-abstract comparison of quality and relevance Within-abstract comparison of participants' rating scores on two measures--strength of the evidence, and likelihood of referral to a peer (1-10 rating scale). OR was calculated using a generalised ordered logit model adjusting for sociodemographic covariates. Participants who received high income country source abstracts were equal in all known characteristics to the participants who received the abstracts with low income country sources. For one of the four abstracts (a randomised, controlled trial of a pharmaceutical intervention), likelihood of referral to a peer was greater if the source was a high income country (OR 1.28, 1.02 to 1.62, p<0.05). All things being equal, in one of the four abstracts, the respondents were influenced by a high-income source in their rating of research abstracts. More research may be needed to explore how the origin of a research article may lead to stereotype activation and application in research evaluation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Bayesian parameter estimation for the Wnt pathway: an infinite mixture models approach.

PubMed

Koutroumpas, Konstantinos; Ballarini, Paolo; Votsi, Irene; Cournède, Paul-Henry

2016-09-01

Likelihood-free methods, like Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), have been extensively used in model-based statistical inference with intractable likelihood functions. When combined with Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms they constitute a powerful approach for parameter estimation and model selection of mathematical models of complex biological systems. A crucial step in the ABC-SMC algorithms, significantly affecting their performance, is the propagation of a set of parameter vectors through a sequence of intermediate distributions using Markov kernels. In this article, we employ Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs) to design optimal transition kernels and we present an ABC-SMC algorithm with DPM kernels. We illustrate the use of the proposed methodology using real data for the canonical Wnt signaling pathway. A multi-compartment model of the pathway is developed and it is compared to an existing model. The results indicate that DPMs are more efficient in the exploration of the parameter space and can significantly improve ABC-SMC performance. In comparison to alternative sampling schemes that are commonly used, the proposed approach can bring potential benefits in the estimation of complex multimodal distributions. The method is used to estimate the parameters and the initial state of two models of the Wnt pathway and it is shown that the multi-compartment model fits better the experimental data. Python scripts for the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture model and the Gibbs sampler are available at https://sites.google.com/site/kkoutroumpas/software konstantinos.koutroumpas@ecp.fr. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Dependent relative: Effects on family health].

PubMed

Estrada Fernández, M Eugenia; Gil Lacruz, Ana I; Gil Lacruz, Marta; Viñas López, Antonio

2018-01-01

The purpose of this work is to analyse the effects on informal caregiver's health and lifestyle when living with a dependent person at home. A comparison will be made between this situation and other situations involving commitment of time and energy, taking into account gender and age differences in each stage of the life cycle. Cross-sectional study analysing secondary data. The method used for collecting information is the computer assisted personal interview carried out in selected homes by the Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality. The study included 19,351 participants aged over 25 years who completed the 2011-2012 Spanish National Health Survey. This research is based on demographic information obtained from a Spanish National Health Survey (2011/12). Using an empirical framework, the Logit model was select and the data reported as odds ratio. The estimations were repeated independently by sub-groups of age and gender. The study showed that the health of people who share their lives with a dependent person is worse than those who do not have any dependent person at home (they are 5 times at higher risk of developing health problems). The study found that being a woman, advance age, low educational level and does not work, also has an influence. Being a caregiver reduces the likelihood of maintaining a healthy lifestyle through physical exercise, relaxation, or eating a balanced diet. Living with a dependent person reduces the likelihood of maintaining healthy lifestyles and worsens the state of health of family members. Significant differences in gender and age were found. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The impact of round window vs cochleostomy surgical approaches on interscalar excursions in the cochlea: Preliminary results from a flat-panel computed tomography study.

PubMed

Jiam, Nicole T; Limb, Charles J

2016-09-01

To evaluate incidence of interscalar excursions between round window (RW) and cochleostomy approaches for cochlear implant (CI) insertion. This was a retrospective case-comparison. Flat-panel CT (FPCT) scans for 8 CI users with Med-El standard length electrode arrays were collected. Surgical technique was identified by a combination of operative notes and FPCT imaging. Four cochleae underwent round window insertion and 4 cochleae underwent cochleostomy approaches anterior and inferior to the round window. In our pilot study, cochleostomy approaches were associated with a higher likelihood of interscalar excursion. Within the cochleostomy group, we found 29% of electrode contacts (14 of 48 electrodes) to be outside the scala tympani. On the other hand, 8.5% of the electrode contacts (4 of 47 electrodes) in the round window insertion group were extra-scalar to the scala tympani. These displacements occurred at a mean angle of occurrence of 364° ± 133°, near the apex of the cochlea. Round window electrode displacements tend to localize at angle of occurrences of 400° or greater. Cochleostomy electrodes occurred at an angle of occurrence of 19°-490°. Currently, the optimal surgical approach for standard CI electrode insertion is highly debated, to a certain extent due to a lack of post-operative assessment of intracochlear electrode contact. Based on our preliminary findings, cochleostomy approach is associated with an increased likelihood of interscalar excursions, and these findings should be further evaluated with future prospective studies.

Vaccine-criticism on the internet: new insights based on French-speaking websites.

PubMed

Ward, Jeremy K; Peretti-Watel, Patrick; Larson, Heidi J; Raude, Jocelyn; Verger, Pierre

2015-02-18

The internet is playing an increasingly important part in fueling vaccine related controversies and in generating vaccine hesitant behaviors. English language Antivaccination websites have been thoroughly analyzed, however, little is known of the arguments presented in other languages on the internet. This study presents three types of results: (1) Authors apply a time tested content analysis methodology to describe the information diffused by French language vaccine critical websites in comparison with English speaking websites. The contents of French language vaccine critical websites are very similar to those of English language websites except for the relative absence of moral and religious arguments. (2) Authors evaluate the likelihood that internet users will find those websites through vaccine-related queries on a variety of French-language versions of google. Queries on controversial vaccines generated many more vaccine critical websites than queries on vaccination in general. (3) Authors propose a typology of vaccine critical websites. Authors distinguish between (a) websites that criticize all vaccines ("antivaccine" websites) and websites that criticize only some vaccines ("vaccine-selective" websites), and between (b) websites that focus on vaccines ("vaccine-focused" websites) and those for which vaccines were only a secondary topic of interest ("generalist" websites). The differences in stances by groups and websites affect the likelihood that they will be believed and by whom. This study therefore helps understand the different information landscapes that may contribute to the variety of forms of vaccine hesitancy. Public authorities should have better awareness and understanding of these stances to bring appropriate answers to the different controversies about vaccination. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Inverse Models of Geologic Data from Shear Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, J. R.; Titus, S.

2016-12-01

We use Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainty in inverse models of geologic data. Although this approach can be applied to many tectonic settings, field areas, and mathematical models, we focus on transpressional shear zones. The underlying forward model, either kinematic or dynamic, produces a velocity field, which predicts the dikes, foliation-lineations, crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO), shape preferred orientation (SPO), and other geologic data that should arise in the shear zone. These predictions are compared to data using modern methods of geometric statistics, including the Watson (for lines such as dike poles), isotropic matrix Fisher (for orientations such as foliation-lineations and CPO), and multivariate normal (for log-ellipsoids such as SPO) distributions. The result of the comparison is a likelihood, which is a key ingredient in the Bayesian approach. The other key ingredient is a prior distribution, which reflects the geologist's knowledge of the parameters before seeing the data. For some parameters, such as shear zone strike and dip, we identify realistic informative priors. For other parameters, where the geologist has no prior knowledge, we identify useful uninformative priors.We investigate the performance of this approach through numerical experiments on synthetic data sets. A fundamental issue is that many models of deformation exhibit asymptotic behavior (e.g., flow apophyses, fabric attractors) or periodic behavior (e.g., SPO when the clasts are rigid), which causes the likelihood to be too uniform. Based on our experiments, we offer rules of thumb for how many data, of which types, are needed to constrain deformation.

Three regularities of recognition memory: the role of bias.

PubMed

Hilford, Andrew; Maloney, Laurence T; Glanzer, Murray; Kim, Kisok

2015-12-01

A basic assumption of Signal Detection Theory is that decisions are made on the basis of likelihood ratios. In a preceding paper, Glanzer, Hilford, and Maloney (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 16, 431-455, 2009) showed that the likelihood ratio assumption implies that three regularities will occur in recognition memory: (1) the Mirror Effect, (2) the Variance Effect, (3) the normalized Receiver Operating Characteristic (z-ROC) Length Effect. The paper offered formal proofs and computational demonstrations that decisions based on likelihood ratios produce the three regularities. A survey of data based on group ROCs from 36 studies validated the likelihood ratio assumption by showing that its three implied regularities are ubiquitous. The study noted, however, that bias, another basic factor in Signal Detection Theory, can obscure the Mirror Effect. In this paper we examine how bias affects the regularities at the theoretical level. The theoretical analysis shows: (1) how bias obscures the Mirror Effect, not the other two regularities, and (2) four ways to counter that obscuring. We then report the results of five experiments that support the theoretical analysis. The analyses and the experimental results also demonstrate: (1) that the three regularities govern individual, as well as group, performance, (2) alternative explanations of the regularities are ruled out, and (3) that Signal Detection Theory, correctly applied, gives a simple and unified explanation of recognition memory data.

Dysfunctional beliefs about symptoms and illness in patients with hypochondriasis.

PubMed

Weck, Florian; Neng, Julia M B; Richtberg, Samantha; Stangier, Ulrich

2012-01-01

The cognitive model and empirical research underline the importance of dysfunctional beliefs about bodily symptoms and illness in health anxiety and hypochondriasis. However, specificity of such beliefs has not yet been adequately demonstrated for patients with hypochondriasis. This study examined whether dysfunctional beliefs about bodily symptoms and illness are elevated in comparison to patients with anxiety disorders and, therefore, specific for patients with hypochondriasis. Patients with hypochondriasis (n = 38), patients with anxiety disorders (n = 40), and healthy controls (n = 42) completed the Symptom and Outcomes Scale (SOS) measuring participants' estimation of the likelihood of various symptoms being indicative of a particular illness. Additionally, participants' general psychopathology (Brief Symptom Inventory), depressive (Beck Depression Inventory-II), and anxiety symptoms (Beck Anxiety Inventory) were evaluated. In comparison to patients with anxiety disorders and healthy controls, patients with hypochondriasis estimated bodily symptoms to be more likely an indicator for a catastrophic illness. Patients with anxiety disorders took a middle position between patients with hypochondriasis and healthy controls. Regarding the estimation of the likelihood of symptoms indicating a minor illness, no differences were found between the three groups. Dysfunctional beliefs about symptoms and illness are important and specific for patients with hypochondriasis, which is in line with the cognitive model. In order to reduce misinformation about serious illnesses in patients with hypochondriasis, more attention should be paid to psychoeducational strategies. Copyright © 2012 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Employment status and psychological distress in a population-based cross-sectional study in Sweden: the impact of migration

PubMed Central

Sidorchuk, Anna; Engström, Karin; Johnson, Charisse M; Kayser Leeoza, Naima; Möller, Jette

2017-01-01

Objectives Unemployment and temporary employment are known to impact psychological health. However, the extent to which the effect is altered by migration-related and sociodemographic determinants is less clear. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the association between employment status and psychological distress differs between immigrants and Swedish-born and to what extent, the association is modified by gender and reason for immigration. Design Cross-sectional survey study. Participants and setting Data from public health surveys undertaken in 2002, 2006 and 2010 from random samples of Stockholm County residents, Sweden, were used to analyse a weighted sample of 51 118 individuals aged 18–64 (43 444 Swedish-born, 4055 non-refugees, 3619 refugees). According to their activity in the labour market, the participants were categorised into permanently/self-employed, temporarily employed and unemployed. Outcomes measures Associations between self-reported employment and psychological distress measured by a 12-item version of the General Health Questionnaire were explored across individuals with different migration status and reasons for immigration using logistic regression and pairwise comparisons. The analyses were stratified by gender and adjusted for age, socioeconomic characteristics and survey year. Results Unemployment was associated with elevated likelihood of psychological distress across the study population, regardless of migration status and gender. Fully adjusted models revealed nearly a 3-fold higher odds of distress in unemployed Swedish-born (OR 3.05, 95% CI 2.66 to 3.51), non-refugees (OR 3.51, 95% CI 2.44 to 5.05) and refugees (OR 2.91, 95% CI 2.20 to 3.85) when compared with permanently/self-employed. Temporary employment also increased the likelihood of distress, particularly among refugees and Swedish-born. Conclusions The effect of unemployment on increased likelihood of poor psychological well-being overcomes gender-specific and migration-specific differences and is equally pronounced for Swedish-born, non-refugees and refugees. Exclusion from the labour market appears to be a major determinant of psychological health inequalities in contemporary Sweden. PMID:28389494

Associations of Low Muscle Mass and the Metabolic Syndrome in Caucasian and Asian Middle-aged and Older Adults.

PubMed

Scott, D; Park, M S; Kim, T N; Ryu, J Y; Hong, H C; Yoo, H J; Baik, S H; Jones, G; Choi, K M

2016-03-01

Age-related declines in skeletal muscle mass may confer significant metabolic consequences for older adults. Associations of low muscle mass and metabolic syndrome (MetS) in Caucasians, and comparisons with associations observed in Asian populations, have not been reported. We examined associations of low muscle mass and metabolic syndrome (MetS) in Asian and Caucasian middle-aged and older men and women using criteria for low muscle mass. Two population-based studies of Australian (Tasmanian Older Adult Cohort Study; TASOAC; N=1005) and Korean (Korean Sarcopenic Obesity Study; KSOS; N=376) community-dwelling adults, mean age 62 and 58 years, respectively. Appendicular lean mass (aLM) determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and normalised to height squared (aLM/Ht2), weight (aLM/Wt) or body mass index (aLM/BMI). Participants in the lowest sex-specific 20% for aLM measures were defined as having low muscle mass. MetS was defined according to National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Although Australians demonstrated generally unfavourable anthropometric and metabolic characteristics compared to Koreans, prevalence of MetS was similar (29.5% in Australians and 31.4% in Koreans, respectively). Low aLM/Ht2 was associated with significantly reduced likelihood of MetS in both Australians (OR: 0.30, 95% CI 0.19 - 0.46) and Koreans (OR: 0.31, 95% CI 0.16 - 0.62). Conversely, low aLM/BMI was associated with increased odds for MetS in Australians (OR: 1.78, 95% CI 1.12 - 2.84), but not Koreans (OR: 1.33, 95% CI = 0.67 - 2.64). Low aLM/BMI is associated with significantly increased likelihood of MetS in Australian adults, but not Koreans, suggesting potential differences in effects of low muscle mass relative to body mass on cardiometabolic health in Caucasian and Asian middle-aged and older adults. Low muscle mass relative to height is associated with reduced likelihood of MetS in both populations.

Employment status and psychological distress in a population-based cross-sectional study in Sweden: the impact of migration.

PubMed

Sidorchuk, Anna; Engström, Karin; Johnson, Charisse M; Kayser Leeoza, Naima; Möller, Jette

2017-04-07

Unemployment and temporary employment are known to impact psychological health. However, the extent to which the effect is altered by migration-related and sociodemographic determinants is less clear. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the association between employment status and psychological distress differs between immigrants and Swedish-born and to what extent, the association is modified by gender and reason for immigration. Cross-sectional survey study. Data from public health surveys undertaken in 2002, 2006 and 2010 from random samples of Stockholm County residents, Sweden, were used to analyse a weighted sample of 51 118 individuals aged 18-64 (43 444 Swedish-born, 4055 non-refugees, 3619 refugees). According to their activity in the labour market, the participants were categorised into permanently/self-employed, temporarily employed and unemployed. Associations between self-reported employment and psychological distress measured by a 12-item version of the General Health Questionnaire were explored across individuals with different migration status and reasons for immigration using logistic regression and pairwise comparisons. The analyses were stratified by gender and adjusted for age, socioeconomic characteristics and survey year. Unemployment was associated with elevated likelihood of psychological distress across the study population, regardless of migration status and gender. Fully adjusted models revealed nearly a 3-fold higher odds of distress in unemployed Swedish-born (OR 3.05, 95% CI 2.66 to 3.51), non-refugees (OR 3.51, 95% CI 2.44 to 5.05) and refugees (OR 2.91, 95% CI 2.20 to 3.85) when compared with permanently/self-employed. Temporary employment also increased the likelihood of distress, particularly among refugees and Swedish-born. The effect of unemployment on increased likelihood of poor psychological well-being overcomes gender-specific and migration-specific differences and is equally pronounced for Swedish-born, non-refugees and refugees. Exclusion from the labour market appears to be a major determinant of psychological health inequalities in contemporary Sweden. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.

PubMed

Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-08-25

It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.

Storage Costs and Heuristics Interact to Produce Patterns of Aphasic Sentence Comprehension Performance

PubMed Central

Clark, David Glenn

2012-01-01

Background: Despite general agreement that aphasic individuals exhibit difficulty understanding complex sentences, the nature of sentence complexity itself is unresolved. In addition, aphasic individuals appear to make use of heuristic strategies for understanding sentences. This research is a comparison of predictions derived from two approaches to the quantification of sentence complexity, one based on the hierarchical structure of sentences, and the other based on dependency locality theory (DLT). Complexity metrics derived from these theories are evaluated under various assumptions of heuristic use. Method: A set of complexity metrics was derived from each general theory of sentence complexity and paired with assumptions of heuristic use. Probability spaces were generated that summarized the possible patterns of performance across 16 different sentence structures. The maximum likelihood of comprehension scores of 42 aphasic individuals was then computed for each probability space and the expected scores from the best-fitting points in the space were recorded for comparison to the actual scores. Predictions were then compared using measures of fit quality derived from linear mixed effects models. Results: All three of the metrics that provide the most consistently accurate predictions of patient scores rely on storage costs based on the DLT. Patients appear to employ an Agent–Theme heuristic, but vary in their tendency to accept heuristically generated interpretations. Furthermore, the ability to apply the heuristic may be degraded in proportion to aphasia severity. Conclusion: DLT-derived storage costs provide the best prediction of sentence comprehension patterns in aphasia. Because these costs are estimated by counting incomplete syntactic dependencies at each point in a sentence, this finding suggests that aphasia is associated with reduced availability of cognitive resources for maintaining these dependencies. PMID:22590462

Storage costs and heuristics interact to produce patterns of aphasic sentence comprehension performance.

PubMed

Clark, David Glenn

2012-01-01

Despite general agreement that aphasic individuals exhibit difficulty understanding complex sentences, the nature of sentence complexity itself is unresolved. In addition, aphasic individuals appear to make use of heuristic strategies for understanding sentences. This research is a comparison of predictions derived from two approaches to the quantification of sentence complexity, one based on the hierarchical structure of sentences, and the other based on dependency locality theory (DLT). Complexity metrics derived from these theories are evaluated under various assumptions of heuristic use. A set of complexity metrics was derived from each general theory of sentence complexity and paired with assumptions of heuristic use. Probability spaces were generated that summarized the possible patterns of performance across 16 different sentence structures. The maximum likelihood of comprehension scores of 42 aphasic individuals was then computed for each probability space and the expected scores from the best-fitting points in the space were recorded for comparison to the actual scores. Predictions were then compared using measures of fit quality derived from linear mixed effects models. All three of the metrics that provide the most consistently accurate predictions of patient scores rely on storage costs based on the DLT. Patients appear to employ an Agent-Theme heuristic, but vary in their tendency to accept heuristically generated interpretations. Furthermore, the ability to apply the heuristic may be degraded in proportion to aphasia severity. DLT-derived storage costs provide the best prediction of sentence comprehension patterns in aphasia. Because these costs are estimated by counting incomplete syntactic dependencies at each point in a sentence, this finding suggests that aphasia is associated with reduced availability of cognitive resources for maintaining these dependencies.

What does viewing a pro-anorexia website do? An experimental examination of website exposure and moderating effects.

PubMed

Bardone-Cone, Anna M; Cass, Kamila M

2007-09-01

This study experimentally examined the effects of viewing a pro-anorexia website. Following construction of a prototypic pro-anorexia website, 235 female undergraduates were randomly assigned to view either the pro-anorexia website or one of two comparison websites related to female fashion (using average-sized models) or home décor. Post-website affect, cognitions, and behavioral expectations were examined along with moderator effects. Study participants exposed to the pro-anorexia website had greater negative affect, lower social self-esteem, and lower appearance self-efficacy post-website than those who viewed a comparison website. Additionally, they perceived themselves as heavier, reported a greater likelihood of exercising and thinking about their weight in the near future, and engaged in more image comparison. Minimal support was found for moderator effects. Results provide an empirical basis for concern (expressed by clinicians, researchers, the media) that pro-anorexia websites are a troubling new form of thin-ideal exposure that warrants further examination. (c) 2007 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Extending the BEAGLE library to a multi-FPGA platform

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Maximum Likelihood (ML)-based phylogenetic inference using Felsenstein’s pruning algorithm is a standard method for estimating the evolutionary relationships amongst a set of species based on DNA sequence data, and is used in popular applications such as RAxML, PHYLIP, GARLI, BEAST, and MrBayes. The Phylogenetic Likelihood Function (PLF) and its associated scaling and normalization steps comprise the computational kernel for these tools. These computations are data intensive but contain fine grain parallelism that can be exploited by coprocessor architectures such as FPGAs and GPUs. A general purpose API called BEAGLE has recently been developed that includes optimized implementations of Felsenstein’s pruning algorithm for various data parallel architectures. In this paper, we extend the BEAGLE API to a multiple Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)-based platform called the Convey HC-1. Results The core calculation of our implementation, which includes both the phylogenetic likelihood function (PLF) and the tree likelihood calculation, has an arithmetic intensity of 130 floating-point operations per 64 bytes of I/O, or 2.03 ops/byte. Its performance can thus be calculated as a function of the host platform’s peak memory bandwidth and the implementation’s memory efficiency, as 2.03 × peak bandwidth × memory efficiency. Our FPGA-based platform has a peak bandwidth of 76.8 GB/s and our implementation achieves a memory efficiency of approximately 50%, which gives an average throughput of 78 Gflops. This represents a ~40X speedup when compared with BEAGLE’s CPU implementation on a dual Xeon 5520 and 3X speedup versus BEAGLE’s GPU implementation on a Tesla T10 GPU for very large data sizes. The power consumption is 92 W, yielding a power efficiency of 1.7 Gflops per Watt. Conclusions The use of data parallel architectures to achieve high performance for likelihood-based phylogenetic inference requires high memory bandwidth and a design methodology that emphasizes high memory efficiency. To achieve this objective, we integrated 32 pipelined processing elements (PEs) across four FPGAs. For the design of each PE, we developed a specialized synthesis tool to generate a floating-point pipeline with resource and throughput constraints to match the target platform. We have found that using low-latency floating-point operators can significantly reduce FPGA area and still meet timing requirement on the target platform. We found that this design methodology can achieve performance that exceeds that of a GPU-based coprocessor. PMID:23331707

Investigation of various factors influencing Raman spectra interpretation with the use of likelihood ratio approach.

PubMed

Michalska, Aleksandra; Martyna, Agnieszka; Zadora, Grzegorz

2018-01-01

The main aim of this study was to verify whether selected analytical parameters may affect solving the comparison problem of Raman spectra with the use of the likelihood ratio (LR) approach. Firstly the LR methodologies developed for Raman spectra of blue automotive paints obtained with the use of 785nm laser source (results published by the authors previously) were implemented for good quality spectra recorded for these paints with the use of 514.5nm laser source. For LR models construction two types of variables were used i.e. areas under selected pigments bands and coefficients derived from discrete wavelet transform procedure (DWT). Few experiments were designed for 785nm and 514.5nm Raman spectra databases after constructing well performing LR models (low rates of false positive and false negative answers and acceptable results of empirical cross entropy approach). In order to verify whether objective magnification described by its numerical aperture affects spectra interpretation, three objective magnifications -20×(N.A.=0.4.), 50×(N.A.=0.75) and 100×(N.A.=0.85) within each of the applied laser sources (514.5nm and 785nm) were tested for a group of blue solid and metallic automotive paints having the same sets of pigments depending on the applied laser source. The findings obtained by two types of LR models indicate the importance of this parameter for solving the comparison problem of both solid and metallic automotive paints regardless of the laser source used for measuring Raman signal. Hence, the same objective magnification, preferably 50× (established based on the analysis of within- and between-samples variability and F-factor value), should be used when focusing the laser on samples during Raman measurements. Then the influence of parameters (laser power and time of irradiation) of one of the recommended fluorescence suppression techniques, namely photobleaching, was under investigation. Analysis performed on a group of solid automotive paint samples showed that time of irradiation upon established laser power does not affect solving the comparison problem with the use of LR test. Likewise upon established time of irradiation 5% or 10% laser power could be used interchangeably without changing conclusions within this problem. However, upon the established time of irradiation changes in laser power between control and recovered sample from 5% or 10% to 50% may cause erroneous conclusions. Additionally it was also proved that prolonged irradiation of paint does not quantitatively affect pigments bands areas revealed after such a pre-treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackey, Ryan

2007-01-01

The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

Efficient embedding of complex networks to hyperbolic space via their Laplacian

PubMed Central

Alanis-Lobato, Gregorio; Mier, Pablo; Andrade-Navarro, Miguel A.

2016-01-01

The different factors involved in the growth process of complex networks imprint valuable information in their observable topologies. How to exploit this information to accurately predict structural network changes is the subject of active research. A recent model of network growth sustains that the emergence of properties common to most complex systems is the result of certain trade-offs between node birth-time and similarity. This model has a geometric interpretation in hyperbolic space, where distances between nodes abstract this optimisation process. Current methods for network hyperbolic embedding search for node coordinates that maximise the likelihood that the network was produced by the afore-mentioned model. Here, a different strategy is followed in the form of the Laplacian-based Network Embedding, a simple yet accurate, efficient and data driven manifold learning approach, which allows for the quick geometric analysis of big networks. Comparisons against existing embedding and prediction techniques highlight its applicability to network evolution and link prediction. PMID:27445157

Sparse Bayesian Learning for Identifying Imaging Biomarkers in AD Prediction

PubMed Central

Shen, Li; Qi, Yuan; Kim, Sungeun; Nho, Kwangsik; Wan, Jing; Risacher, Shannon L.; Saykin, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

We apply sparse Bayesian learning methods, automatic relevance determination (ARD) and predictive ARD (PARD), to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) classification to make accurate prediction and identify critical imaging markers relevant to AD at the same time. ARD is one of the most successful Bayesian feature selection methods. PARD is a powerful Bayesian feature selection method, and provides sparse models that is easy to interpret. PARD selects the model with the best estimate of the predictive performance instead of choosing the one with the largest marginal model likelihood. Comparative study with support vector machine (SVM) shows that ARD/PARD in general outperform SVM in terms of prediction accuracy. Additional comparison with surface-based general linear model (GLM) analysis shows that regions with strongest signals are identified by both GLM and ARD/PARD. While GLM P-map returns significant regions all over the cortex, ARD/PARD provide a small number of relevant and meaningful imaging markers with predictive power, including both cortical and subcortical measures. PMID:20879451

Efficient embedding of complex networks to hyperbolic space via their Laplacian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alanis-Lobato, Gregorio; Mier, Pablo; Andrade-Navarro, Miguel A.

2016-07-01

The different factors involved in the growth process of complex networks imprint valuable information in their observable topologies. How to exploit this information to accurately predict structural network changes is the subject of active research. A recent model of network growth sustains that the emergence of properties common to most complex systems is the result of certain trade-offs between node birth-time and similarity. This model has a geometric interpretation in hyperbolic space, where distances between nodes abstract this optimisation process. Current methods for network hyperbolic embedding search for node coordinates that maximise the likelihood that the network was produced by the afore-mentioned model. Here, a different strategy is followed in the form of the Laplacian-based Network Embedding, a simple yet accurate, efficient and data driven manifold learning approach, which allows for the quick geometric analysis of big networks. Comparisons against existing embedding and prediction techniques highlight its applicability to network evolution and link prediction.

Data Format Classification for Autonomous Software Defined Radios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Marvin; Divsalar, Dariush

2005-01-01

We present maximum-likelihood (ML) coherent and noncoherent classifiers for discriminating between NRZ and Manchester coded (biphase-L) data formats for binary phase-shift-keying (BPSK) modulation. Such classification of the data format is an essential element of so-called autonomous software defined radio (SDR) receivers (similar to so-called cognitive SDR receivers in the military application) where it is desired that the receiver perform each of its functions by extracting the appropriate knowledge from the received signal and, if possible, with as little information of the other signal parameters as possible. Small and large SNR approximations to the ML classifiers are also proposed that lead to simpler implementation with comparable performance in their respective SNR regions. Numerical performance results obtained by a combination of computer simulation and, wherever possible, theoretical analyses, are presented and comparisons are made among the various configurations based on the probability of misclassification as a performance criterion. Extensions to other modulations such as QPSK are readily accomplished using the same methods described in the paper.

A machine learning approach to the potential-field method for implicit modeling of geological structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, Ítalo Gomes; Kumaira, Sissa; Guadagnin, Felipe

2017-06-01

Implicit modeling has experienced a rise in popularity over the last decade due to its advantages in terms of speed and reproducibility in comparison with manual digitization of geological structures. The potential-field method consists in interpolating a scalar function that indicates to which side of a geological boundary a given point belongs to, based on cokriging of point data and structural orientations. This work proposes a vector potential-field solution from a machine learning perspective, recasting the problem as multi-class classification, which alleviates some of the original method's assumptions. The potentials related to each geological class are interpreted in a compositional data framework. Variogram modeling is avoided through the use of maximum likelihood to train the model, and an uncertainty measure is introduced. The methodology was applied to the modeling of a sample dataset provided with the software Move™. The calculations were implemented in the R language and 3D visualizations were prepared with the rgl package.

Bayesian inference on risk differences: an application to multivariate meta-analysis of adverse events in clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Luo, Sheng; Chu, Haitao; Wei, Peng

2013-05-01

Multivariate meta-analysis is useful in combining evidence from independent studies which involve several comparisons among groups based on a single outcome. For binary outcomes, the commonly used statistical models for multivariate meta-analysis are multivariate generalized linear mixed effects models which assume risks, after some transformation, follow a multivariate normal distribution with possible correlations. In this article, we consider an alternative model for multivariate meta-analysis where the risks are modeled by the multivariate beta distribution proposed by Sarmanov (1966). This model have several attractive features compared to the conventional multivariate generalized linear mixed effects models, including simplicity of likelihood function, no need to specify a link function, and has a closed-form expression of distribution functions for study-specific risk differences. We investigate the finite sample performance of this model by simulation studies and illustrate its use with an application to multivariate meta-analysis of adverse events of tricyclic antidepressants treatment in clinical trials.

A Model-Based Diagnosis Framework for Distributed Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-04

of centralized compilation techniques as applied to [6] Marco Cadoli and Francesco M . Donini . A survey several areas, of which diagnosis is one. Our...for doing so than the family for that (1) Vi 1 ... m . Xi E 2V; (2) V ui(Xi[Xi E 1). tree-structured systems. For simplicity of notation, we will that (i...our diagnosis synthesis diagnoses using a likelihood weight ri assigned to each as- algorithm. sumable Ai, i = I, ... m . Using the likelihood algebra